1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:04,960 The company Klarna, the payments company Klarna, fired 700 people 2 00:00:04,960 --> 00:00:09,760 quite publicly not too long ago, and the idea was that AI was 3 00:00:09,760 --> 00:00:11,320 getting good enough to replace them. 4 00:00:11,800 --> 00:00:15,000 About a year later, they were hiring 700 people. 5 00:00:15,840 --> 00:00:20,360 So often we idealize AI even when we're working with it and 6 00:00:20,360 --> 00:00:23,640 it's not working. When we hear that it's going to 7 00:00:23,640 --> 00:00:26,520 work perfectly by these guys, we tend to believe that. 8 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:28,760 We tend to be optimist when it comes to technology. 9 00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:34,800 Prophecy, prediction, power and the fight for the future. 10 00:00:35,080 --> 00:00:41,560 From the ancient oracles to AI Prophecy by Carissa Velez, one 11 00:00:41,560 --> 00:00:44,840 of the most important books you will read in the next coming 12 00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:47,640 years. It talks about the effect of 13 00:00:47,640 --> 00:00:49,440 these technologies on us as humans. 14 00:00:49,440 --> 00:00:51,600 It's what we talk about it thinking on paper every day. 15 00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:54,640 The intersection between technology and humanity. 16 00:00:54,880 --> 00:00:58,560 This is explored in a most profound way, a most accessible 17 00:00:58,560 --> 00:01:00,720 way. You will not want to miss this 18 00:01:00,720 --> 00:01:03,400 episode. Please enjoy our discussion with 19 00:01:03,560 --> 00:01:07,680 Carissa. What is a good life? 20 00:01:07,680 --> 00:01:11,040 What is the good life? That is a very philosophical 21 00:01:11,040 --> 00:01:13,920 question, perhaps the most important philosophical 22 00:01:13,920 --> 00:01:18,360 question. It's the kind of life where when 23 00:01:18,360 --> 00:01:22,040 you get to the end of it, you feel it's worth the ride. 24 00:01:22,520 --> 00:01:28,160 I've done my bit and it's worth thinking about because sometimes 25 00:01:28,160 --> 00:01:30,480 we're so caught up in the logistics of life that we forget 26 00:01:30,480 --> 00:01:35,240 what it's all about. And I think the good life is one 27 00:01:35,320 --> 00:01:40,680 that you have written yourself, that you didn't receive a script 28 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:43,880 from someone else that you just followed, that you feel that you 29 00:01:45,360 --> 00:01:50,000 thought about what you think is important and that you got to 30 00:01:50,000 --> 00:01:53,480 know yourself well and got to know how you can contribute to 31 00:01:53,480 --> 00:01:55,240 the world. What are the things that you 32 00:01:55,240 --> 00:01:57,280 enjoy and that you find meaningful? 33 00:01:57,880 --> 00:02:02,720 And that you went for it, that you gave it your all, that 34 00:02:03,280 --> 00:02:07,040 hopefully you left the place better than you found it. 35 00:02:07,200 --> 00:02:13,400 And that you had a good time and great friendships and meaningful 36 00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:17,640 relationships in in the journey. Talk to me about how knowing 37 00:02:17,640 --> 00:02:23,360 yourself is so powerful in this self-directed life because I 38 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:27,880 think people get caught up in this business of busy and this, 39 00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:31,240 this cycle, this whirlwind of things that we should, we think 40 00:02:31,240 --> 00:02:34,400 we should be doing. How's knowing yourself help with 41 00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:36,600 that peace? We're very anxious creatures, 42 00:02:36,600 --> 00:02:39,920 and that's partly because we're smart and we're smart enough to 43 00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:42,520 get a sense of everything that can go wrong. 44 00:02:42,840 --> 00:02:47,920 But that anxiety is tricky because what it can be a useful 45 00:02:47,960 --> 00:02:49,760 engine and it can be a motivator. 46 00:02:49,760 --> 00:02:53,800 And I think it's a good sign. If you have anxiety about the 47 00:02:53,800 --> 00:02:56,560 uncertainty of the future, it means that the future is not 48 00:02:56,560 --> 00:02:59,360 written, that you can intercede, that you can have a chance to 49 00:02:59,360 --> 00:03:02,320 change it. Because we are such anxious 50 00:03:02,320 --> 00:03:07,240 creatures, it can lead us to look for answers from someone 51 00:03:07,240 --> 00:03:09,400 else. So sometimes when we're so 52 00:03:09,400 --> 00:03:12,120 scared and anxious, it's easier to go to someone and and tell 53 00:03:12,120 --> 00:03:13,640 them. Tell me what I should do. 54 00:03:13,640 --> 00:03:14,840 Tell me what the future looks like. 55 00:03:14,840 --> 00:03:17,560 Tell me, tell me what path to follow, because I don't know. 56 00:03:18,280 --> 00:03:21,680 And that makes us very vulnerable to people exploiting 57 00:03:21,680 --> 00:03:23,960 that situation for their own benefit and for their own 58 00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:27,200 agenda. So part of what it means to know 59 00:03:27,200 --> 00:03:31,440 yourself is to be able to sit with that anxiety of knowing 60 00:03:32,320 --> 00:03:34,960 that you're a mortal being and that a lot of things can go 61 00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:40,640 wrong is sitting without fear about making a mistake, making 62 00:03:40,680 --> 00:03:45,600 making an error. But also knowing what attracts 63 00:03:45,600 --> 00:03:48,560 your attention, what makes you curious about the world, what 64 00:03:48,560 --> 00:03:53,120 makes you joyful and what you're good at in a way that you could 65 00:03:53,120 --> 00:03:55,320 contribute to the world that maybe no one else, no one else 66 00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:58,480 can. And one of the, the things I get 67 00:03:59,120 --> 00:04:02,640 most asked by both students and parents of students and, and 68 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:06,120 readers from the from around the world, people, people e-mail me 69 00:04:06,120 --> 00:04:10,240 asking me what should I study or what should my child study. 70 00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:14,960 And my best advice is, look, the future is completely 71 00:04:14,960 --> 00:04:17,680 unpredictable. And if you're going on strategy, 72 00:04:17,800 --> 00:04:21,120 you might, you're probably going to get it wrong and you're 73 00:04:21,120 --> 00:04:23,800 probably going to be miserable in in the process. 74 00:04:23,840 --> 00:04:28,040 So follow your curiosity. Your curiosity tells you that 75 00:04:28,040 --> 00:04:30,400 there's something there that needs to be looked at twice. 76 00:04:31,080 --> 00:04:35,320 And one of the things I want to encourage people to do is to be 77 00:04:35,760 --> 00:04:38,960 bolder about life, because it's not worth living a life that's 78 00:04:38,960 --> 00:04:41,440 not yours. When you're bold and when you 79 00:04:41,440 --> 00:04:44,560 find what you're interested in, you, you, you're much more 80 00:04:44,560 --> 00:04:47,640 likely to find a different angle that nobody has seen before, 81 00:04:47,960 --> 00:04:50,640 because nobody's like you. Nobody has your background, 82 00:04:50,640 --> 00:04:53,920 nobody has even your perceptual sensitivity. 83 00:04:54,280 --> 00:04:57,960 And it's finding that which others are not seeing that can 84 00:04:57,960 --> 00:05:01,640 give you more of a competitive advantage, ironically, than 85 00:05:01,640 --> 00:05:05,320 trying to predict what the future will be in trying to 86 00:05:05,320 --> 00:05:08,920 follow that script to try to to play it safe. 87 00:05:09,520 --> 00:05:12,800 Playing it safe is also a bet, and safe bets are not always as 88 00:05:12,800 --> 00:05:16,920 safe as I might seem. You're painting a very analogue 89 00:05:17,400 --> 00:05:22,960 experience. Are you suggesting that for the 90 00:05:22,960 --> 00:05:26,480 most part we should remove digital experiences from our 91 00:05:26,480 --> 00:05:30,080 existence? Or can there be a dual digital 92 00:05:30,080 --> 00:05:32,440 analogue experience to the human condition? 93 00:05:32,680 --> 00:05:35,360 I think we should have two tracks, the analogue and the 94 00:05:35,360 --> 00:05:38,600 digital. But I do worry that recently we 95 00:05:38,600 --> 00:05:41,400 focus a lot on the digital, partly because the digital has 96 00:05:41,400 --> 00:05:45,200 better marketing teams right now than the analogue world and we 97 00:05:45,200 --> 00:05:48,880 forget that the analogue is the. Has nature? 98 00:05:48,880 --> 00:05:52,240 Surely nature is the best advertising marketing department 99 00:05:52,240 --> 00:05:54,960 there is. You'd think, but if you grow up 100 00:05:54,960 --> 00:05:58,960 far away from nature and you've never had that contact and you 101 00:05:58,960 --> 00:06:02,800 just see it in documentaries, that's that's not enough. 102 00:06:04,040 --> 00:06:08,520 Nature is something, we're such cultural creatures that nature, 103 00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:12,800 even nature is something that you have to grown accustomed to 104 00:06:12,800 --> 00:06:15,720 and, and learn to appreciate and learn to see. 105 00:06:17,120 --> 00:06:20,160 So yeah, I, I think that we forget that the analogue is the 106 00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:23,480 primal experience that everything digital depends on 107 00:06:23,480 --> 00:06:25,200 the analogue. We lose the analogue, we lose 108 00:06:25,200 --> 00:06:28,520 everything, we lose the digital and we lose a lot, but we don't 109 00:06:28,520 --> 00:06:31,480 lose the analogue. And so there is an asymmetry. 110 00:06:31,480 --> 00:06:34,320 I do think that analogue is more important than digital. 111 00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:36,040 I don't want to do away with it digital. 112 00:06:36,040 --> 00:06:39,800 I just want to put it in perspective and that if we focus 113 00:06:39,800 --> 00:06:43,200 too much on the digital to the detriment of the analogue, we 114 00:06:43,200 --> 00:06:48,280 are heading towards ruins. You're not going to hear about 115 00:06:48,280 --> 00:06:51,560 athletic greens. We have no electrolyte drinks or 116 00:06:51,560 --> 00:06:54,560 AI agents to sell you. The show you're listening to, 117 00:06:54,640 --> 00:06:57,880 Thinking on Paper is funded entirely by me and Jeremy. 118 00:06:58,440 --> 00:07:02,240 So this is an advert for us because we sponsor ourselves and 119 00:07:02,240 --> 00:07:05,120 we need your help. So please subscribe wherever 120 00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:07,680 you're listening or watching Thinking on Paper. 121 00:07:08,240 --> 00:07:11,080 And if you're feeling really generous and kind, please leave 122 00:07:11,080 --> 00:07:14,560 a comment. Now back to Carissa. 123 00:07:15,320 --> 00:07:18,960 You've set us, set this conversation up in the context 124 00:07:18,960 --> 00:07:25,120 of we as human creatures are highly perceptible or highly 125 00:07:25,120 --> 00:07:32,040 influenced or highly vulnerable to the mechanism that you're 126 00:07:32,040 --> 00:07:35,480 talking about in prophecy. That pulls us away from who we 127 00:07:35,480 --> 00:07:38,680 are in in into a situation that's controlled by others, 128 00:07:39,080 --> 00:07:42,920 directed by others. So how does the manipulation of 129 00:07:42,920 --> 00:07:47,440 our need to feel secure, how does that make us vulnerable to 130 00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:50,080 these prophecies that that you're talking about? 131 00:07:50,080 --> 00:07:51,520 Can you walk us through that a little bit? 132 00:07:52,160 --> 00:07:54,880 Essentially, we're all worried about tomorrow because that's 133 00:07:54,880 --> 00:07:57,360 where we're all be spending the rest of our lives. 134 00:07:57,760 --> 00:07:59,600 And we're wondering, are we going to have a job? 135 00:07:59,600 --> 00:08:02,560 Is our family going to be OK? Is war going to break out? 136 00:08:02,600 --> 00:08:04,560 Are we going to be able to navigate climate change? 137 00:08:04,560 --> 00:08:07,680 There are all these questions and we want answers and we don't 138 00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:09,440 have them. And so we ask. 139 00:08:09,440 --> 00:08:13,320 We have a tendency to ask other people about it, often experts 140 00:08:13,760 --> 00:08:17,480 or very rich people. I think we associate wealth with 141 00:08:17,480 --> 00:08:20,120 success. Surely if this person became so 142 00:08:20,120 --> 00:08:22,040 wealthy, they must know something that I don't know. 143 00:08:22,640 --> 00:08:25,480 And so we asked them, you know, tell me what the future holds. 144 00:08:25,480 --> 00:08:28,400 I get, I get asked all the time, what's the future of privacy? 145 00:08:28,840 --> 00:08:33,559 As if I or anyone else knew. And then predictions become the 146 00:08:33,559 --> 00:08:38,760 arena where fights about the future get played out. 147 00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:42,360 So if you go to a tech executive and you tell them, tell me, what 148 00:08:42,360 --> 00:08:45,960 is the future? What do I need to know to be 149 00:08:45,960 --> 00:08:49,360 able to navigate the future? Well, what is he going to tell 150 00:08:49,360 --> 00:08:50,400 you? Of course it's going to tell you 151 00:08:50,400 --> 00:08:55,120 that the future is his product because that's that's in his 152 00:08:55,120 --> 00:08:56,800 interest. He has a company has a product 153 00:08:56,800 --> 00:09:00,080 to sell and he wants the future to be to be that. 154 00:09:00,920 --> 00:09:02,880 And it happens to line his pockets as well. 155 00:09:03,360 --> 00:09:09,960 And so we end up believing as facts what very often are power 156 00:09:09,960 --> 00:09:15,200 plays in disguise or marketing or some other kind of power 157 00:09:15,200 --> 00:09:18,760 related move. Often it it is a self fulfilling 158 00:09:18,760 --> 00:09:20,720 prophecy. It's like there, there there's 159 00:09:20,720 --> 00:09:23,240 many ways to classify predictions, but one way to do 160 00:09:23,240 --> 00:09:27,280 it is one thing is to predict something about objects. 161 00:09:27,280 --> 00:09:29,920 So if I predict whether it's going to rain tomorrow or not, 162 00:09:30,160 --> 00:09:33,720 it has no effect on whether it actually rains because the 163 00:09:33,720 --> 00:09:35,840 clouds are not listening to this podcast. 164 00:09:36,880 --> 00:09:40,840 But if I predict the future about human beings, I mean in 165 00:09:40,840 --> 00:09:44,040 particular when I predict the future about 1-1 particular 166 00:09:44,040 --> 00:09:47,480 human being, that can have a huge effect because it changes 167 00:09:47,480 --> 00:09:50,640 expectations, It changes how we view the world and how we treat 168 00:09:50,640 --> 00:09:53,520 other people. And it's a mistake to think 169 00:09:53,520 --> 00:09:56,200 about predictions as facts. Predictions are never facts. 170 00:09:56,200 --> 00:10:00,840 At best they can be educated guesses, but facts are only 171 00:10:00,840 --> 00:10:03,720 about the present and the past, never about the future. 172 00:10:04,440 --> 00:10:07,280 However, predictions are very misleading because they do sound 173 00:10:07,280 --> 00:10:09,720 like Fox. It sound like facts about the 174 00:10:09,720 --> 00:10:11,400 future, but that actually doesn't exist. 175 00:10:11,400 --> 00:10:13,240 The future is unwritten. It hasn't happened. 176 00:10:13,560 --> 00:10:16,360 So for example, in ancient Rome, it was illegal to predict the 177 00:10:16,360 --> 00:10:19,720 death of the emperor for the very simple reason that that 178 00:10:19,720 --> 00:10:22,880 kind of prediction ended up with a dead body of an emperor. 179 00:10:24,320 --> 00:10:28,480 Talk to us about this illusion of safety and illusion of 180 00:10:28,480 --> 00:10:32,760 security, that when you rely on these predictions, because we're 181 00:10:32,760 --> 00:10:34,800 so busy, we're running and gunning, we're doing so many 182 00:10:34,800 --> 00:10:38,240 things, we need shortcuts like that's what ends up happening. 183 00:10:38,240 --> 00:10:41,040 But talk to us about what we're actually getting for that 184 00:10:41,040 --> 00:10:44,880 exchange. So one very common use of AI is 185 00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:50,040 to minimize risks for companies and that can look in different, 186 00:10:50,040 --> 00:10:53,440 different ways. One is the use of AI to hire 187 00:10:53,440 --> 00:10:55,520 people. And so the idea is if you use 188 00:10:55,520 --> 00:11:00,080 data to see which what kind of person has been successful in 189 00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:04,000 the past, we can predict who's going to be a good employee and 190 00:11:04,000 --> 00:11:07,360 and thereby lower your risk when you hire someone that you might 191 00:11:07,360 --> 00:11:12,720 be hiring a walking disaster. Another use is AI for supply 192 00:11:12,720 --> 00:11:15,840 chains to try to predict what we're going to be the 193 00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:19,480 bottlenecks or challenges or demands. 194 00:11:20,920 --> 00:11:25,680 And in in each case, AI and other kinds of prediction give, 195 00:11:25,800 --> 00:11:29,360 give us the the illusion of safety because part of what 196 00:11:29,560 --> 00:11:32,680 gives us that that illusion is quantifiable. 197 00:11:32,680 --> 00:11:38,240 So if you can put a number on it, you feel like you're closer 198 00:11:38,240 --> 00:11:40,600 to knowing more about whatever that is. 199 00:11:40,920 --> 00:11:45,520 So if I tell you know this person has a 70% chance of not 200 00:11:45,960 --> 00:11:50,240 repaying a loan as a bank, you might feel like you are safer 201 00:11:50,240 --> 00:11:53,560 than if you didn't have that number to rely on. 202 00:11:53,920 --> 00:11:58,480 However, one of the limitations of any kind of prediction, 203 00:11:58,480 --> 00:12:04,240 including AI, is that it assumes that the future will look like 204 00:12:04,240 --> 00:12:06,960 the past. And for the most part, that's 205 00:12:06,960 --> 00:12:10,520 actually true. But it's not always true. 206 00:12:10,680 --> 00:12:14,560 And what's more most interesting about reality is that the most 207 00:12:14,560 --> 00:12:17,360 important events of your life, of your individual life, but 208 00:12:17,360 --> 00:12:21,000 also of our collective lives, are the most unpredictable ones. 209 00:12:21,240 --> 00:12:23,920 So it's very easy to know what's ahead when the road is 210 00:12:23,920 --> 00:12:26,080 completely straight. Doesn't take a genius. 211 00:12:26,760 --> 00:12:30,840 It's the curve. Stack the odds in some domains 212 00:12:30,880 --> 00:12:33,080 in our favor with predictions though. 213 00:12:33,080 --> 00:12:37,880 So you mentioned supply chain and logistics and hiring. 214 00:12:38,000 --> 00:12:43,280 What about drug discovery or climate monitoring or one day 215 00:12:43,280 --> 00:12:46,240 perhaps in the future, the ability to predict earthquakes 216 00:12:46,240 --> 00:12:49,280 and tsunamis and and natural disasters? 217 00:12:49,280 --> 00:12:51,480 So there, there is a yin to the Yang. 218 00:12:51,480 --> 00:12:55,760 There is a positive and net positive for humanity to 219 00:12:55,760 --> 00:12:58,200 predict, isn't there? Absolutely. 220 00:12:58,200 --> 00:13:00,800 And it's probably what, what has given us a competitive advantage 221 00:13:00,800 --> 00:13:02,600 as animals. We're, we're pretty weak 222 00:13:03,160 --> 00:13:05,440 physically, but we have language, we have opposable 223 00:13:05,440 --> 00:13:08,920 thumbs and we have this ability if we can predict how an animal 224 00:13:08,920 --> 00:13:10,560 is going to behave, it's easier to hunt them. 225 00:13:10,560 --> 00:13:14,920 If we, we can predict the seasons, it's easier to use the 226 00:13:14,920 --> 00:13:18,840 sky as a map if we, if we, if we can learn how to read the stars 227 00:13:18,840 --> 00:13:20,920 and so on and so forth. But it's interesting that the 228 00:13:20,920 --> 00:13:24,720 three examples you gave were examples of predicting things 229 00:13:24,720 --> 00:13:26,280 about things and not about people. 230 00:13:26,280 --> 00:13:28,720 So that's the first point to to note. 231 00:13:29,120 --> 00:13:33,360 And the second thing is yes. Individual genetic disease. 232 00:13:34,840 --> 00:13:38,000 OK. So, but even then, I mean, that 233 00:13:38,000 --> 00:13:40,160 is that is a kind of a mixed case because there's a lot that 234 00:13:40,160 --> 00:13:43,960 human beings can do to affect which genes get activated. 235 00:13:44,440 --> 00:13:47,960 But even then, you might argue that there are some genetic 236 00:13:47,960 --> 00:13:50,600 diseases that if you have it in your genes, you're going to get 237 00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:52,320 no matter what. And so it's not really about 238 00:13:52,320 --> 00:13:57,440 human behavior. But the other point to to note 239 00:13:57,440 --> 00:14:02,240 is that even when yes, prediction gives us a a 240 00:14:02,240 --> 00:14:04,880 competitive advantage when it works well because the future 241 00:14:04,880 --> 00:14:08,920 does look like the past, it works even better if we are 242 00:14:08,920 --> 00:14:12,480 aware of its limits. So one thing is to use 243 00:14:12,480 --> 00:14:17,320 prediction and, and, and just note that there is a premise 244 00:14:17,320 --> 00:14:19,920 there that is implicit. If the future looks like the 245 00:14:19,920 --> 00:14:21,520 past, then this is going to happen. 246 00:14:21,520 --> 00:14:24,000 And always be aware that sometimes the future doesn't 247 00:14:24,000 --> 00:14:26,640 look like the past, for example, with climate change. 248 00:14:27,000 --> 00:14:30,640 So our predictions about climates are very limited 249 00:14:30,640 --> 00:14:33,120 because there's no database about the future. 250 00:14:33,160 --> 00:14:36,120 It's as simple as that. And we will be exposed to things 251 00:14:36,120 --> 00:14:39,240 that haven't happened before in the face of the Earth, and there 252 00:14:39,240 --> 00:14:41,360 is no way to predict them for that reason. 253 00:14:42,040 --> 00:14:45,840 And when it comes to human history, events are much more 254 00:14:45,840 --> 00:14:48,800 unpredictable. Even even even when it comes to 255 00:14:48,800 --> 00:14:51,600 the physical reality, we don't know whether one day we're going 256 00:14:51,600 --> 00:14:54,800 to be hit by a meteor. And we can't to a certain extent 257 00:14:54,800 --> 00:14:57,640 predict it because, you know, that's a trajectory and so on. 258 00:14:57,800 --> 00:15:01,160 But there are physical events that we that are hard to predict 259 00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:03,600 or impossible to predict. But when it comes to human 260 00:15:03,600 --> 00:15:06,600 history, that's even more the case, because one of the 261 00:15:06,600 --> 00:15:11,120 annoying and wonderful things about humanity is is how we tend 262 00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:15,520 to surprise ourselves. And when it comes to things like 263 00:15:15,680 --> 00:15:19,360 many wars are started by a particular murder. 264 00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:23,040 And whereas we can predict roughly with some accuracy how 265 00:15:23,040 --> 00:15:26,000 many people will be murdered in a particular year, who will be 266 00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:28,720 murdered and who will do the murdering is absolutely 267 00:15:29,000 --> 00:15:32,200 unpredictable. Can I read you a couple of 268 00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:38,560 quotes, Carissa? So the first is from Sam Altman. 269 00:15:39,640 --> 00:15:43,320 Anyone in 2035 should be able to Marshall the intellectual 270 00:15:43,320 --> 00:15:46,760 capacity equivalent to everyone in 2025. 271 00:15:47,600 --> 00:15:51,960 Dario Amodi I simultaneously think that AI will disrupt 50% 272 00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:55,280 of entry level white collar jobs over one to five years, while 273 00:15:55,280 --> 00:15:58,760 also thinking we may have AI that is more capable than 274 00:15:58,880 --> 00:16:01,440 everyone in only one to two years. 275 00:16:02,520 --> 00:16:06,840 Jensen Huang AI agents are the new digital workforce. the IT 276 00:16:06,840 --> 00:16:10,880 department of every company is going to be the HR department of 277 00:16:11,080 --> 00:16:14,160 AI agents in the future. What do you think? 278 00:16:14,160 --> 00:16:18,040 What do you want to tell me And Jeremy, when you hear quotes 279 00:16:18,040 --> 00:16:20,000 like that, predictions like that? 280 00:16:20,680 --> 00:16:24,320 I fear that the way they're interpreted is as a fact. 281 00:16:24,400 --> 00:16:27,640 These guys know a lot about AI. They're making AI. 282 00:16:27,640 --> 00:16:30,600 If they're saying this, this is going to happen and I better act 283 00:16:30,600 --> 00:16:34,160 in accordance with that. So if every company is going to 284 00:16:34,160 --> 00:16:37,440 have an AI department and then I better start building that now 285 00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:39,720 so I'm I don't fall behind the curve. 286 00:16:40,240 --> 00:16:45,200 And what I would like people to hear is, OK, this is a very rich 287 00:16:45,200 --> 00:16:49,000 guy with huge financial interests who is selling this 288 00:16:49,000 --> 00:16:52,440 product. He's made predictions in the 289 00:16:52,440 --> 00:16:53,960 past. Have those panned out? 290 00:16:55,040 --> 00:16:56,600 Not that great. All right. 291 00:16:56,800 --> 00:16:59,440 Is that the future that I want? Is that the future that I want 292 00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:01,680 to see? And if not, what am I going to 293 00:17:01,680 --> 00:17:04,560 do to build the future that I want to see? 294 00:17:04,599 --> 00:17:10,480 We're we're in this conversation about our susceptibility to 295 00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:12,640 being pulled into these predictions. 296 00:17:12,640 --> 00:17:16,720 And it's not, it's not just that we're gullible people or we 297 00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:18,880 talked about the whole fear security thing. 298 00:17:19,319 --> 00:17:24,160 I ran across something and you referenced Bayes quite a lot in, 299 00:17:24,640 --> 00:17:28,200 you know, when you set the stage for probability theory and all 300 00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:29,920 of that and how that rolls into it. 301 00:17:30,560 --> 00:17:33,520 I ran across a guy named. I don't know him, but I ran in 302 00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:37,560 my research, Karl Fristan, who has this theory called the 303 00:17:37,560 --> 00:17:42,240 Bayesian brain, which essentially says that our brains 304 00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:44,560 are prediction machines. Whether that theory is right or 305 00:17:44,560 --> 00:17:47,640 wrong, there is some research going into that. 306 00:17:47,640 --> 00:17:52,520 And if that is even a little bit the case, that's a pretty tough 307 00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:55,920 situation because we have to kind of think about it ourselves 308 00:17:55,920 --> 00:17:59,760 as being somewhat disadvantaged in this situation. 309 00:17:59,760 --> 00:18:02,960 So what are your thoughts on that theory #1 and and how does 310 00:18:02,960 --> 00:18:06,440 that apply to your thinking and your message to everybody that, 311 00:18:06,680 --> 00:18:09,360 hey, this might be the case, but we are kind of fixable if we 312 00:18:09,360 --> 00:18:12,680 think about it a different way? Yeah, that's a great question. 313 00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:16,560 So part of the answer to the previous question is how things 314 00:18:16,560 --> 00:18:21,080 can go wrong if you are too gullible with these predictions. 315 00:18:21,760 --> 00:18:26,040 The the company Karna, the payments company Karna, fired 316 00:18:26,040 --> 00:18:32,000 700 people quite publicly not too long ago, and the idea was 317 00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:34,160 that AI was getting good enough to replace them. 318 00:18:34,600 --> 00:18:37,840 About a year later, they were hiring 700 people. 319 00:18:38,680 --> 00:18:43,160 So often we idealize AI even when we're working with it and 320 00:18:43,160 --> 00:18:46,440 it's not working. When we hear that it's going to 321 00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:49,320 work perfectly by these guys, we tend to believe that. 322 00:18:49,320 --> 00:18:53,520 We tend to be optimists when it comes to technology, when it 323 00:18:53,520 --> 00:18:57,440 comes to thinking about the human mind as a predictive 324 00:18:57,440 --> 00:19:01,200 machine. There is a long history of 325 00:19:01,280 --> 00:19:06,480 coming up with disciplines, with artifacts, with theories, and 326 00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:11,240 then coming up with the piggybacking theory that the 327 00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:15,360 mind is like that. So we saw this with the rise of 328 00:19:15,360 --> 00:19:18,680 computers. We never really thought about 329 00:19:18,680 --> 00:19:22,000 the mind as a computer, but then suddenly we we came up with 330 00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:25,200 these artifacts that were quite impressive and we started 331 00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:27,360 thinking, oh, maybe that's how the mind works. 332 00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:31,840 So I think there is a bit to that when it comes to theories 333 00:19:31,840 --> 00:19:36,440 about the mind. I think that, yes, that is one 334 00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:40,280 thing that the human mind does. We do predict in a kind of 335 00:19:40,360 --> 00:19:45,600 roughly Bayesian way in which we have a hypothesis and then we 336 00:19:45,600 --> 00:19:49,880 test it out in in in the world, both influencing the world, but 337 00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:53,440 also just getting information from the world, and then we 338 00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:57,480 revise our views accordingly. I think that is very reasonable, 339 00:19:58,320 --> 00:20:01,960 but I think what makes human beings especially impressive. 340 00:20:02,360 --> 00:20:08,440 Is the ability to do causal reasoning, to think about how 341 00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:14,360 things connect with one another even in the absence of data of 342 00:20:14,360 --> 00:20:17,000 previous data about that particular thing? 343 00:20:17,320 --> 00:20:22,320 And when we rely so much on AI and we lose sight of these 344 00:20:22,320 --> 00:20:28,040 causal reasoning, we risk creating blind spots for 345 00:20:28,040 --> 00:20:31,280 ourselves. So one of the classic examples 346 00:20:31,280 --> 00:20:33,480 in philosophy is, is that of the Turkey. 347 00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:36,560 So there's a Turkey and, and it's being fed every day and 348 00:20:36,560 --> 00:20:39,240 taken care of. And each day that passes, the 349 00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:41,680 Turkey grows more and more confident that it has a great 350 00:20:41,680 --> 00:20:45,480 caretaker. And of course, every day that 351 00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:49,120 passes, Thanksgiving is, is nearer and nearer and, and their 352 00:20:49,120 --> 00:20:52,840 life is more at risk. And I think something particular 353 00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:54,760 to human beings is that ability to think. 354 00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:58,280 Even if I don't have data to the contrary, I can understand how 355 00:20:58,280 --> 00:21:01,400 things work and what are the motivations behind people and 356 00:21:01,400 --> 00:21:05,360 how this could go very wrong. What should that Turkey do if 357 00:21:05,360 --> 00:21:08,800 it's someone prophesizes and says you have a less than 0 358 00:21:08,800 --> 00:21:12,800 chance of being eaten for dinner in 25 days, what would the. 359 00:21:12,840 --> 00:21:15,320 What should the Turkey do? Escape. 360 00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:18,640 Escape. Is there not something similar 361 00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:24,440 with some of these prophecies being right enough that we 362 00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:31,440 should act upon them? Well, it depends on the kind of 363 00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:33,960 prophecy we're talking about, because there's also the 364 00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:36,840 opposite effect. So Hannah aren't has this point 365 00:21:36,840 --> 00:21:40,840 about how it makes no sense to argue with a murderer who's 366 00:21:40,840 --> 00:21:42,600 saying that their victim is going to be dead. 367 00:21:42,760 --> 00:21:45,360 The only appropriate response is to rescue the victim. 368 00:21:46,320 --> 00:21:52,640 So the, the prediction that the person is going to eat the 369 00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:57,520 Turkey is presumably a prediction of an outsider who 370 00:21:57,520 --> 00:22:01,800 has no stake in the matter. But most predictions that are 371 00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:05,120 about human beings out there are predictions that are they're not 372 00:22:05,120 --> 00:22:07,720 without self-interest and they're not without without that 373 00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:11,400 kind of reflexive quality. So presumably the prediction 374 00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:16,680 that that the Turkey is going to be eaten in 25 days is not going 375 00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:21,240 to affect the behaviour of the caretaker unless, you know, 376 00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:25,360 turkeys could talk. And then if, if, if they had 377 00:22:25,360 --> 00:22:27,120 learned that I had told the Turkey that it's going to be 378 00:22:27,120 --> 00:22:30,160 killed in 25 days, the caretaker might kill him tomorrow and then 379 00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:31,040 freeze them. Right. 380 00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:37,960 And so the point is that it's not about, OK, is this 381 00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:40,680 prediction going to be right? And therefore, how do I act? 382 00:22:40,840 --> 00:22:43,240 The point is that the future is unwritten. 383 00:22:43,480 --> 00:22:47,160 And when we predict things in ways that affect expectations, 384 00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:53,080 that changes the outcome itself. You write about truth like 385 00:22:53,320 --> 00:22:56,680 things, and you write about when numbers are attached to things, 386 00:22:57,040 --> 00:23:01,600 they make them seem more believable, even though numbers 387 00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:04,560 are a human invention in in a sense, which I thought was a 388 00:23:04,560 --> 00:23:08,640 very, very clever view of it. Let me read a couple of quotes 389 00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:10,400 and then I want to ask you a couple of questions on these 390 00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:13,560 quotes. So quote, fiction is simplified, 391 00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:17,200 custom designed to affect us in a particular way, while the 392 00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:22,440 truth is messy and unwieldy, hard to appreciate, you know, in 393 00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:26,280 all its richness. Another quick quote, not enough 394 00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:30,080 of a market for the truth. That one hit hard with stories 395 00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:32,240 hitting harder than facts by design. 396 00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:39,000 How could we give ourselves a leg up to to know that that's a 397 00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:42,960 mechanism being manipulated? It's a bit like encountering 398 00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:45,640 junk food. I think now it's a very well 399 00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:49,680 known fact, but hearing it for the first time that, you know, 400 00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:52,280 junk food is actually designed for your taste buds and not for 401 00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:54,240 your body. And there are reasons why you 402 00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:57,000 crave so much sugar and butter and or fats. 403 00:23:57,000 --> 00:24:01,160 Because it was very hard to come by thousands of years ago when 404 00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:03,680 our bodies evolved. And now when we have it 405 00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:06,160 available all the time, it can really poison us. 406 00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:11,040 And it's a bit like that. It's, it's being aware that your 407 00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:16,320 mind is naturally drawn to well-rounded stories that make 408 00:24:16,320 --> 00:24:21,680 sense, that are uplifting or that are terrifying, and and 409 00:24:21,680 --> 00:24:26,720 being aware that in the long run you are much better served by 410 00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:30,080 actually being interested in the truth. 411 00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:32,280 Even when it's uncomfortable, even when it's hard to 412 00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:36,680 understand, even when it yields a lot of uncertainty and maybe 413 00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:43,480 some more questions and answers. It's having that second level 414 00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:50,480 reflection on why am I attracted to this story, how much of it is 415 00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:56,080 it true? And if I believe a false story, 416 00:24:56,760 --> 00:25:00,520 how am I how you're going to eventually crash into a wall? 417 00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:02,800 Feels like you're asking a lot of people. 418 00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:05,200 It's not that. Basically, this is not a passive 419 00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:06,720 movement, this is. You're going to have to be 420 00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:08,560 active if you want to fight the prophets. 421 00:25:09,160 --> 00:25:13,000 Before I ask my next question, could I ask you who are your 422 00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:17,680 favorite or who are the most dangerous memorable prophets 423 00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:23,320 from your book first? That's a great question. 424 00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:28,320 So one very famous prophet is is Rasputin. 425 00:25:28,800 --> 00:25:31,640 And he's really an interesting guy because he came out of 426 00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:33,880 nowhere. This was a person who didn't 427 00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:38,440 even know how to read. He came from a very rural place, 428 00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:42,760 not well connected at all and it's very interesting to see how 429 00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:47,880 he gains following how he's eccentricity attracts people, 430 00:25:48,040 --> 00:25:52,720 but he's also very well versed in power and manipulating 431 00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:57,760 people's views. However, when somebody lies and 432 00:25:57,760 --> 00:26:01,520 lies and lies and lies, it's a matter of time before it all 433 00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:05,880 comes crashing down because they start earning enemies and people 434 00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:08,240 become resentful. One of the things that he did 435 00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:12,000 was he was a sexual predator. And when he had harassed enough 436 00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:14,800 women, people started getting angry about it. 437 00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:18,280 Not only women, but also their, the, the men in in their lives. 438 00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:23,000 And eventually you have this incredibly tense situation in 439 00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:28,120 which the SARS are completely dependent on this person and 440 00:26:28,120 --> 00:26:30,320 have made him almost part of the family. 441 00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:35,720 But it's really endangering their rule because they have 442 00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:40,440 lost legitimacy in the face of the people and and at the end it 443 00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:43,280 becomes their downfall. So that is, is a is a 444 00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:47,400 particularly interesting case. OK, well, it's interesting that 445 00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:53,200 you use the word followers. Elon Musk has 200 and 3200 and 446 00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:59,080 40 million followers on Twitter. Big Tech has the ear, just like 447 00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:04,120 Rasputin did, of the leaders of the free world. 448 00:27:04,640 --> 00:27:07,000 They sat on the front row of the inauguration. 449 00:27:08,240 --> 00:27:14,080 They have instant access to literally a billion people, 450 00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:17,520 something that Rasputin and the other prophets in the book never 451 00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:20,520 had in such a short tiny time frame. 452 00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:25,560 What does that change about modern day prophecy? 453 00:27:25,560 --> 00:27:28,640 How is modern day prophecy different to the days of 454 00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:30,720 Rasputin and the Oracle of Delphi? 455 00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:35,120 In some ways it's the same in the, in the sense that the 456 00:27:35,120 --> 00:27:39,360 political role that it can play is the same and the danger is 457 00:27:39,360 --> 00:27:44,480 the same that a prophet with enough power can utter A 458 00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:47,440 prophecy and if people believe it, it can become true. 459 00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:50,040 It can it, it creates its own momentum. 460 00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:55,000 In another way, it's a more complex story because there is a 461 00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:59,160 lot of tension between the administrator that, sorry, the 462 00:27:59,160 --> 00:28:01,000 administration and some of these prophets. 463 00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:05,600 We've just seen a fallout between anthropic and the Trump 464 00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:10,320 administration and so there is somewhat of a mutual dependency 465 00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:13,200 there, among other reasons, because governments are using 466 00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:18,360 big tech for infrastructure in a way that bizarre arguably could 467 00:28:18,360 --> 00:28:21,920 have could have gotten rid of Rasputin without without much 468 00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:25,080 consequence. And, and so it's, it's a much 469 00:28:25,080 --> 00:28:29,840 more complex picture, but the fact of the matter remains the 470 00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:35,640 same that if one powerful and influential person says 471 00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:38,960 something about the future and enough people believe it, there 472 00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:41,960 is a momentum for it to become true in a way that if they 473 00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:44,320 hadn't said that, maybe it would have never happened. 474 00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:47,280 And that makes it very, a very sensitive issue and something 475 00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:51,520 that we should be very skeptical about and, and, and very 476 00:28:51,520 --> 00:28:56,040 responsible as citizens of to not just peddle any kind of 477 00:28:56,040 --> 00:28:59,120 prophecy because somebody influential has said it. 478 00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:01,840 You almost want to like, shout it from the mountaintops, but 479 00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:04,760 like, people might be too busy to believe it. 480 00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:07,960 Do you? How do you connect to the people 481 00:29:07,960 --> 00:29:12,400 who are too busy or who can't afford the time to think so 482 00:29:12,920 --> 00:29:17,080 actively about it? One of the pleasures of writing 483 00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:21,120 this book is that it changed the way I see the world and I hope 484 00:29:21,120 --> 00:29:23,120 that it changes the way other people see the world. 485 00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:27,160 And just this, this very simple thought about be careful with 486 00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:28,880 predictions. They're not facts and they can 487 00:29:28,880 --> 00:29:31,720 become so fulfilling. Prophecies have has changed the 488 00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:34,240 way I interpret most news I come across. 489 00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:38,160 And in a way that's enough. It doesn't it doesn't take that 490 00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:43,760 much in a way, you know, the overachievers can go all the way 491 00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:46,360 and say, OK, how am I going to be the author of my own life? 492 00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:50,280 But even a very passive take of just being a little bit more 493 00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:55,000 skeptical about prophecies would change massively the quality of 494 00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:57,760 democracy and public discourse that we have. 495 00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:05,640 And as predictions markets become more popular, this is 496 00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:08,840 going to be more of an issue. And I, and I've shared the book 497 00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:12,120 with a few friends and it gives you a lot of pleasure when when 498 00:30:12,120 --> 00:30:14,960 they send me an e-mail saying, oh, today I ran across this news 499 00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:18,240 and I just saw it differently thanks to just that kind of 500 00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:21,200 snippet. It's a kind of lens that makes 501 00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:25,920 you look at the world and you. Mentioned Cauchy Polymarket, 502 00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:27,840 according to the Wall Street Journal. 503 00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:30,880 They're both. They have their own 20 billion 504 00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:35,800 valuations, whatever that means. People are predicting, betting, 505 00:30:35,800 --> 00:30:39,560 making money on war leaders, health, murder. 506 00:30:39,800 --> 00:30:45,520 In your book you asked Tim Harford whether you should ban 507 00:30:45,800 --> 00:30:48,760 prediction in light of Cauchy and Polymarket. 508 00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:53,480 What did you mean by that? So I was asking Tim Harford 509 00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:56,160 about whether we should have some limits, whether we should 510 00:30:56,160 --> 00:30:59,440 have some guardrails, and in particular with predictions 511 00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:03,640 about elections. And his first response, which I 512 00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:07,040 think is the right one and a very sensible 1, is, well, wait, 513 00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:09,960 we, we don't want to ban anything that unnecessarily, 514 00:31:09,960 --> 00:31:12,120 right? And, and let's, let's, let's 515 00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:15,120 think this through because in liberal democracies, the default 516 00:31:15,240 --> 00:31:18,040 is not banning. But when you start to get into 517 00:31:18,040 --> 00:31:21,960 it and you say, well, OK, election polls are mostly for 518 00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:25,120 entertainment. And if you cash it out that way, 519 00:31:25,120 --> 00:31:28,360 you say, well, are they worth the risk though for 520 00:31:28,360 --> 00:31:32,160 entertainment? Like there's some good movies I 521 00:31:32,160 --> 00:31:35,160 could recommend. They're very entertaining. 522 00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:39,840 And so they they only become justifiable if there isn't a 523 00:31:39,840 --> 00:31:42,960 risk of them distorting democracy. 524 00:31:42,960 --> 00:31:45,480 But when there is, then you start thinking, well, maybe we 525 00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:48,280 should put some limits here. And something that Jeremy said 526 00:31:48,280 --> 00:31:52,880 is, is a great point about scale predictions right now scaled 527 00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:56,200 more than ever, both in the sense that an algorithm that's 528 00:31:56,200 --> 00:32:02,280 making a predictive guess can reach millions, if not billions 529 00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:04,240 of people. Very often we're using either 530 00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:06,880 the same algorithm or a version of the same algorithm. 531 00:32:07,240 --> 00:32:11,520 And in the sense that someone with high following on social 532 00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:15,320 media can reach billions of people and that has never been 533 00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:19,520 the case in the past, which makes predictions more dangerous 534 00:32:19,520 --> 00:32:21,480 than ever. This is this is pretty timely 535 00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:24,080 and it's also top of mind for me as a parent. 536 00:32:24,080 --> 00:32:27,920 I have 4 kids. We do our best to maintain their 537 00:32:27,920 --> 00:32:31,280 relationships with, with technology, But you know, every 538 00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:34,640 now and again, you know, I catch them kind of in the loop, which 539 00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:37,480 is it? It's such a difficult balance 540 00:32:37,480 --> 00:32:41,000 to, to, to run. But let's talk about algorithms 541 00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:43,520 and let's talk about the ownership of one of the most 542 00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:47,360 powerful algorithms in the United States at the moment. 543 00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:50,280 That is, that is owned by Oracle, that is owned by Silver 544 00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:53,160 Lake MDX, this group. I'm talking about the TikTok US 545 00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:57,640 algorithm, right? And I want, I want to get your 546 00:32:57,640 --> 00:33:04,160 thoughts on what effect that pathway, that pipeline, that 547 00:33:04,160 --> 00:33:09,760 accessibility to the younger generation, what effect could 548 00:33:09,760 --> 00:33:13,000 that have? The straight answer is that we 549 00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:17,040 don't know. We know it has an effect and we 550 00:33:17,040 --> 00:33:23,200 know that large segments of the population, and in particular 551 00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:28,520 young people, access this kind of content and are influenced by 552 00:33:28,520 --> 00:33:32,160 it. But it's a hard thing to 553 00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:39,160 quantify and to get a good sense of, among other reasons, because 554 00:33:39,160 --> 00:33:41,800 the data from platforms is proprietary. 555 00:33:42,160 --> 00:33:50,400 So it's not easy to research. However, when we see either 556 00:33:50,400 --> 00:33:55,280 academic research or research in courts, it does suggest that 557 00:33:55,280 --> 00:33:58,360 these platforms have a huge effect on how young people look 558 00:33:58,360 --> 00:34:00,600 at the world and how anyone looks at the world. 559 00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:04,640 And one example that comes to mind that is particularly 560 00:34:04,640 --> 00:34:09,360 concerning, and it comes to mind not only because it's concerning 561 00:34:09,360 --> 00:34:13,760 but also because it was studied in depth, is the case of Molly 562 00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:17,800 Russell. Molly was a teenager in the UK 563 00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:23,560 who was exposed to content related to self harm and who 564 00:34:23,560 --> 00:34:29,400 ended up ending her life. And there was a trial about it. 565 00:34:29,920 --> 00:34:32,520 And there's a documentary called Molly Versus the Machines that I 566 00:34:32,520 --> 00:34:34,199 highly recommend about the trial. 567 00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:38,880 And it was the first time that in a country like the UK, it was 568 00:34:38,880 --> 00:34:43,440 established that the platform, in that case, Instagram, had 569 00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:47,920 played a significant role in the death of this very young person. 570 00:34:48,520 --> 00:34:52,960 And if that is true, then the same goes for TikTok, of course, 571 00:34:52,960 --> 00:34:55,320 because it's they're very similar platforms. 572 00:34:56,320 --> 00:34:58,600 I'm gonna let that one breathe a little bit in my brain. 573 00:34:59,920 --> 00:35:01,680 Yeah, there's a lot to think about there. 574 00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:05,000 And and the the black box nature of those things and the 575 00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:07,640 proprietary nature of those things, like you said, make it 576 00:35:07,640 --> 00:35:11,200 make it very difficult. And we may not know for 50 577 00:35:11,200 --> 00:35:16,080 years, 30 years, 25 years what kind of influential effect this 578 00:35:16,080 --> 00:35:22,280 has on short cutting, critical thinking, short circuiting, how 579 00:35:22,280 --> 00:35:25,120 people acquire their beliefs and hold their beliefs. 580 00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:29,080 Part of what makes a democracy functional is a certain kind of 581 00:35:29,080 --> 00:35:32,920 trust in the system, in both your citizens, but also in in 582 00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:36,400 the system and trust that there hasn't been foul play of some 583 00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:38,680 sort. So one concern is that these 584 00:35:38,680 --> 00:35:43,160 platforms could be used for political fear mongering or 585 00:35:43,160 --> 00:35:47,960 different kinds of propaganda. And one concern is that even if 586 00:35:47,960 --> 00:35:50,920 they're not used that way, that they could be used that way. 587 00:35:50,920 --> 00:35:53,880 And we have no real way of knowing whether they're being 588 00:35:53,880 --> 00:35:57,880 used that way introduces a corrosiveness in the Gears of 589 00:35:57,880 --> 00:36:01,160 democracy, doubt about whether it's working well enough. 590 00:36:01,400 --> 00:36:06,200 And that's already bad enough. So we have a lot more work to do 591 00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:10,120 to figure out how to protect, better protect democracy from 592 00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:14,920 these potential interferences. In Prophecy, you say towards the 593 00:36:14,920 --> 00:36:18,480 end that in fact this is a book about AI ethics, which but not 594 00:36:18,480 --> 00:36:23,960 about AI ethics. So what can what can governments 595 00:36:23,960 --> 00:36:30,880 do, for example, with TikTok that's easy to execute to make 596 00:36:30,880 --> 00:36:35,720 these platforms less dangerous? Is there anything that can be 597 00:36:35,720 --> 00:36:38,960 done by the end of this year for example? 598 00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:42,120 Yes. One thing that could be done is 599 00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:47,680 forcing platforms to give up data to academic researchers so 600 00:36:47,680 --> 00:36:49,480 we have a better sense of what's going on. 601 00:36:50,160 --> 00:36:54,320 Another thing that can be done is to ban algorithms that are 602 00:36:54,320 --> 00:36:57,800 designed to maximize engagement. Every algorithm is designed to 603 00:36:57,800 --> 00:37:02,880 do something, and we know that maximizing engagement is an 604 00:37:02,880 --> 00:37:07,880 incredibly toxic thing to do. It's the equivalent of putting 605 00:37:07,880 --> 00:37:11,840 cocaine or another kind of very addictive drug into food to make 606 00:37:11,840 --> 00:37:13,600 people buy that food. We don't allow it. 607 00:37:13,800 --> 00:37:17,840 We don't allow addictiveness to be part of the design of food. 608 00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:20,800 And in the same way, the algorithm should maximize 609 00:37:20,800 --> 00:37:26,080 something else, should maximize entertainment or information or 610 00:37:26,080 --> 00:37:28,880 or whatever else, but to maximize engagement, we know 611 00:37:29,080 --> 00:37:31,800 leads to some of the most toxic patterns that we've seen. 612 00:37:31,920 --> 00:37:35,160 I think people are so confused about what an algorithm is. 613 00:37:35,240 --> 00:37:37,720 And when people say algorithm, they're just like, oh, it's just 614 00:37:37,720 --> 00:37:40,760 like the magic that lives in the hardware and the software that 615 00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:42,320 makes this, makes this stuff happen. 616 00:37:42,320 --> 00:37:46,760 Like what would be a way to explain algorithms like through 617 00:37:46,760 --> 00:37:52,640 story? And algorithm is an instruction 618 00:37:52,720 --> 00:37:56,560 and you ask it to do something for you. 619 00:37:56,840 --> 00:38:03,200 In some cases it's to identify dogs in a bunch of images or 620 00:38:03,240 --> 00:38:07,320 which can then be of course used to, to change that instruction 621 00:38:07,320 --> 00:38:11,040 and to identify a tumor for the purposes of of medical 622 00:38:12,080 --> 00:38:16,480 healthcare. And when it comes to social 623 00:38:16,480 --> 00:38:21,440 media platforms, what the algorithm is built to do is to 624 00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:25,760 get you to stay on the platform for as long as possible, because 625 00:38:25,760 --> 00:38:29,200 that way platforms get more data out of you. 626 00:38:29,600 --> 00:38:32,760 And then they can do things without data. 627 00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:35,760 And, and what do they do? Mostly they try to predict what 628 00:38:35,760 --> 00:38:38,280 you're going to do next, which is of course influenced by the 629 00:38:38,280 --> 00:38:40,640 kind of content that you are exposed to. 630 00:38:41,200 --> 00:38:44,680 So one way to put it is that the easiest way to predict the 631 00:38:44,680 --> 00:38:48,280 future is to determine it. So if I jail someone, of course 632 00:38:48,280 --> 00:38:51,200 it's very easy to predict when where he's going to be the 633 00:38:51,200 --> 00:38:53,120 following day. I jailed the guy. 634 00:38:54,240 --> 00:38:59,040 In the same way, when a platform influences your behavior, it 635 00:38:59,040 --> 00:39:01,000 makes it easier to predict what you're going to do. 636 00:39:02,560 --> 00:39:05,480 Chat bots, by the way, are also built in this way. 637 00:39:05,480 --> 00:39:11,320 So they are built in a way that will what make make people want 638 00:39:11,320 --> 00:39:14,920 to use it more. And that is what makes them very 639 00:39:14,920 --> 00:39:18,400 sycophantic. They have this feature whereby 640 00:39:18,400 --> 00:39:21,480 they base basically validate you as as a user. 641 00:39:21,720 --> 00:39:25,720 And so they'll tell you that you're brilliant that that that 642 00:39:25,720 --> 00:39:29,840 you're, you're so insightful. And of course, validation is is 643 00:39:29,840 --> 00:39:33,280 is a pleasurable thing and and in small doses it can be 644 00:39:33,520 --> 00:39:36,200 important and encouraging. But too much validation makes us 645 00:39:36,200 --> 00:39:40,760 lose complete perspective. The idea of banning those types 646 00:39:40,760 --> 00:39:45,280 of algorithms, to my cynical brain, seems I'm going to make a 647 00:39:45,280 --> 00:39:50,440 prediction almost zero, at least in the foreseeable future. 648 00:39:50,480 --> 00:39:54,280 It's a very top down approach. What does the bottom up emergent 649 00:39:54,280 --> 00:39:56,720 solution to this problem look like? 650 00:39:56,800 --> 00:40:04,280 It looks like either consumers being more demanding and saying, 651 00:40:04,280 --> 00:40:06,960 well, I'm not going to use this thing that's just exploiting me. 652 00:40:08,920 --> 00:40:10,840 I think we're seeing some of that. 653 00:40:11,680 --> 00:40:14,320 Granted, my students are not particularly representative of 654 00:40:14,320 --> 00:40:17,400 the population, but I have more and more students who don't use 655 00:40:17,400 --> 00:40:20,240 social media and who don't want to use social media. 656 00:40:23,080 --> 00:40:26,800 Also companies doing better. So realizing that there's a 657 00:40:26,800 --> 00:40:29,880 competitive advantage in offering an actually safe 658 00:40:29,960 --> 00:40:34,120 product and an actually respectful product and people 659 00:40:34,120 --> 00:40:37,240 choosing it. And something important to bear 660 00:40:37,240 --> 00:40:40,920 in mind is that most of humanities breakthroughs, 661 00:40:41,520 --> 00:40:44,600 whatever you whatever you consider a breakthrough from 662 00:40:44,840 --> 00:40:47,640 coming up with the airplane and and actually making the thing 663 00:40:47,640 --> 00:40:51,960 fly to human rights of all kinds, including workers rights 664 00:40:51,960 --> 00:40:57,040 and universal suffrage and all of that seemed absolutely 665 00:40:57,040 --> 00:41:01,800 impossible quite near to when they were achieved. 666 00:41:02,600 --> 00:41:04,480 That's something really interesting to think about. 667 00:41:04,560 --> 00:41:07,880 South coming off the algorithm algorithm discussion, we 668 00:41:07,880 --> 00:41:11,040 reference self fulfilling prophecies a bit. 669 00:41:11,040 --> 00:41:13,800 Let's go a little deeper into that because that's a big, big 670 00:41:13,800 --> 00:41:17,160 piece of this book. Tell us about that in general 671 00:41:17,160 --> 00:41:20,960 and what what people need to know about how the future can 672 00:41:20,960 --> 00:41:24,720 actually be written by the people predicting it if we let 673 00:41:24,720 --> 00:41:28,360 it happen to us. So one example that is very 674 00:41:28,360 --> 00:41:31,960 relevant for the times that we live in is that once a 675 00:41:31,960 --> 00:41:35,360 population starts thinking that there will be war, they start 676 00:41:35,360 --> 00:41:38,360 preparing for war and they make war much more likely to happen 677 00:41:38,640 --> 00:41:41,600 because of course, it creates a reaction in the adversary of 678 00:41:41,600 --> 00:41:43,400 preparing as well. If you see that your neighbor is 679 00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:45,120 getting armed, then you arm yourself. 680 00:41:45,360 --> 00:41:49,520 And then once everybody's armed, it makes a war much more, much 681 00:41:49,520 --> 00:41:51,840 more likely. The self fulfilling prophecies 682 00:41:51,840 --> 00:41:56,640 are all around us. There is and, and there are many 683 00:41:56,640 --> 00:41:59,480 studies that that validate how powerful they are. 684 00:42:00,320 --> 00:42:04,080 So one of the studies that I cite is 1 in which researchers 685 00:42:04,080 --> 00:42:08,920 get given mice and half the researchers get told that their 686 00:42:08,920 --> 00:42:13,800 mice are stupid for, for, for traversing a maze. 687 00:42:14,000 --> 00:42:18,040 And the other ones get told that their mice are geniuses and the 688 00:42:18,200 --> 00:42:22,920 the researchers who have the geniuses end up having actual 689 00:42:22,920 --> 00:42:25,360 geniuses. But they in fact they got 690 00:42:25,360 --> 00:42:28,200 produced because all the mice were exactly the same. 691 00:42:28,480 --> 00:42:31,240 So the expectations of the researchers that they're they're 692 00:42:31,240 --> 00:42:35,320 mice would be dumb or, or brilliant influenced how they 693 00:42:35,320 --> 00:42:39,440 treated them in a way that ended up fulfilling the, the, the 694 00:42:39,440 --> 00:42:44,880 label that that these mice had. Another example that is very 695 00:42:44,880 --> 00:42:52,680 real is how predictions can affect the outcome of health in 696 00:42:52,680 --> 00:42:56,840 medical settings. So medical resources are always 697 00:42:56,840 --> 00:43:00,240 scarce and we have to make a decision of where they go first 698 00:43:00,560 --> 00:43:03,440 on this is made on the basis of predictions. 699 00:43:03,920 --> 00:43:09,080 And if so, if somebody predicts that a person is less likely to 700 00:43:09,080 --> 00:43:12,000 benefit from resources, the researchers will be allocated to 701 00:43:12,000 --> 00:43:14,240 someone else. And we will never know whether 702 00:43:14,240 --> 00:43:17,320 that person might have lived if if we had given them the 703 00:43:17,320 --> 00:43:21,120 resources. And I tell the story one case in 704 00:43:21,120 --> 00:43:26,480 which there was an organ donor in Spain who had spontaneous 705 00:43:26,480 --> 00:43:28,520 heartbeat. So meaning that they weren't 706 00:43:28,520 --> 00:43:31,080 completely dead, but because they had already been branded as 707 00:43:31,080 --> 00:43:36,840 an organ donor, it was it was too late to to do anything about 708 00:43:36,840 --> 00:43:40,360 it. And that that example is 709 00:43:40,360 --> 00:43:45,480 particularly good because not only does it exemplify how high 710 00:43:45,480 --> 00:43:48,840 the stakes can be, but also how self fulfilling prophecies tend 711 00:43:48,840 --> 00:43:54,240 to be the perfect crime because they they cover their tracks. 712 00:43:54,240 --> 00:43:58,160 We will never have that data. And in the same way when we use 713 00:43:58,160 --> 00:44:00,600 an algorithm to predict it's going to be a good employee and 714 00:44:00,600 --> 00:44:03,360 we never give the job to certain kinds of people, we will never 715 00:44:03,360 --> 00:44:05,720 know whether they might have been brilliant employees. 716 00:44:06,200 --> 00:44:09,880 And so we get the sense that the algorithm is very accurate when 717 00:44:09,880 --> 00:44:13,200 in fact we don't have the the the data that would be most 718 00:44:13,200 --> 00:44:16,680 important to prove it wrong. I want to speak about my 719 00:44:16,680 --> 00:44:19,440 favorite part of your book, Prophecy. 720 00:44:20,360 --> 00:44:22,200 Do you know who my favorite prophet is? 721 00:44:23,040 --> 00:44:25,080 No. Jeremy, do you know who my 722 00:44:25,080 --> 00:44:29,560 favorite prophet is? Maybe the guy who wrote the 723 00:44:29,560 --> 00:44:32,840 culture of three novels? My favorite prophet is George 724 00:44:32,840 --> 00:44:36,880 Carlin, and I think maybe my second favorite prophet is Bill 725 00:44:36,880 --> 00:44:41,120 Hicks. You speak about Fawlty Towers 726 00:44:41,920 --> 00:44:46,560 and you interviewed John Cleese for this book, and I laughed out 727 00:44:46,560 --> 00:44:49,320 loud when you describe the scene in Fawlty Towers where he has to 728 00:44:49,320 --> 00:44:51,120 choose the right branch to hit the car. 729 00:44:51,440 --> 00:44:53,160 I think Fawlty Towers is a masterpiece. 730 00:44:55,000 --> 00:45:02,160 Comedy and prophecy. Why do you write about comedy? 731 00:45:02,280 --> 00:45:05,240 I wanted to go go all out in this book. 732 00:45:07,080 --> 00:45:12,920 It's partly about being older and thinking about how short 733 00:45:12,920 --> 00:45:19,160 life is and and being willing to say what you think ought to be 734 00:45:19,160 --> 00:45:22,600 said and not thinking about whether it's going to be 735 00:45:22,600 --> 00:45:29,480 commercial or whether it it it's a bit more. 736 00:45:30,320 --> 00:45:35,400 Let's say this book is post tenure and, and in many ways, I 737 00:45:35,520 --> 00:45:37,840 I allowed myself much more freedom than in the past. 738 00:45:37,840 --> 00:45:40,640 So that's part and comedy is, is a big part of my life. 739 00:45:41,120 --> 00:45:46,000 I love comedy and it influences how I see the world, but it's 740 00:45:46,000 --> 00:45:50,560 also something that I've learned is very important for politics. 741 00:45:50,560 --> 00:45:56,800 So one of the marks of a, a government turning authoritarian 742 00:45:56,800 --> 00:46:00,600 or a society turning authoritarian is the loss of a 743 00:46:00,600 --> 00:46:02,760 sense of humor. And this is not new. 744 00:46:02,760 --> 00:46:06,520 Milan Kundera wrote a a brilliant novel called The Joke, 745 00:46:07,440 --> 00:46:11,360 which is exactly about this, about how in in a communist 746 00:46:11,360 --> 00:46:14,560 regime, when somebody made a joke, it could cost you your 747 00:46:14,560 --> 00:46:16,240 career and and potentially your life. 748 00:46:16,240 --> 00:46:20,160 There is something very irreverent about about comedy, 749 00:46:21,760 --> 00:46:26,760 and it's also very much against prophecy because part of what 750 00:46:26,760 --> 00:46:29,560 makes something funny is when it surprises us. 751 00:46:29,800 --> 00:46:33,200 We sort of expect a sentence to be one way and then when it ends 752 00:46:33,200 --> 00:46:37,800 in a completely different way, it it often makes us laugh And 753 00:46:38,520 --> 00:46:42,440 going back into the past, I think, I think part of the 754 00:46:42,440 --> 00:46:45,320 lesson of the book is that we've seen this before. 755 00:46:45,320 --> 00:46:48,240 Don't be dazzled by the new technology. 756 00:46:48,360 --> 00:46:50,960 This has happened before. And look at this pattern and 757 00:46:50,960 --> 00:46:53,200 it's easier to see a pattern of the past because you don't 758 00:46:53,200 --> 00:46:55,880 believe in those technologies anymore and because you have 759 00:46:55,880 --> 00:46:59,760 distance. And when you went into the court 760 00:46:59,760 --> 00:47:05,000 of a king, you realize that if you wanted to know the truth, 761 00:47:05,320 --> 00:47:08,920 you wouldn't go to the prophet. You'd go to the jester. 762 00:47:09,200 --> 00:47:12,800 The jester was the only person with the freedom to say the 763 00:47:12,800 --> 00:47:15,720 truth because it was under the veil of of comedy. 764 00:47:16,560 --> 00:47:23,640 And one of the parts that I enjoyed most about in in writing 765 00:47:23,640 --> 00:47:25,480 the book is the part about Seinfeld. 766 00:47:26,120 --> 00:47:28,240 Seinfeld is one of my favorite comedy shows. 767 00:47:29,840 --> 00:47:31,520 I love did. You speak to him for the book, 768 00:47:31,640 --> 00:47:32,920 Did he? Did he agree to interview? 769 00:47:33,120 --> 00:47:39,200 I tried, did not work out. Wait, come on, Jerry. 770 00:47:42,160 --> 00:47:48,440 Still still on offer, Jerry, But yeah, so Seinfeld was is a, is 771 00:47:48,440 --> 00:47:51,680 a, is a fascinating example because people hated the show. 772 00:47:53,240 --> 00:47:56,920 It was a show about nothing. There's a very funny episode 773 00:47:56,920 --> 00:47:59,680 about it and nobody had seen anything like it. 774 00:47:59,680 --> 00:48:03,160 And so at the beginning, it was decidedly not what people wanted 775 00:48:03,160 --> 00:48:05,520 to watch. So if we had to use predictive 776 00:48:05,520 --> 00:48:10,760 algorithms to choose TV shows, it would have never chosen that 777 00:48:10,760 --> 00:48:14,720 show at at the time. And part of its magic is that it 778 00:48:14,720 --> 00:48:16,800 changed the sensitivity of the audience. 779 00:48:16,800 --> 00:48:19,600 It's an acquired taste. You learn to see the world 780 00:48:19,640 --> 00:48:22,320 through Seinfeld lenses and, and, and, and take pleasure in 781 00:48:22,320 --> 00:48:24,800 the absurd. And, and it became one of the 782 00:48:24,800 --> 00:48:27,320 most popular TV shows in in history. 783 00:48:28,080 --> 00:48:34,920 And part of the brilliance of it is how they did not follow the 784 00:48:34,920 --> 00:48:36,760 cookie cutter approach to sitcoms. 785 00:48:36,760 --> 00:48:40,600 And every time NBC gave them guidelines, they would say, 786 00:48:40,880 --> 00:48:45,960 we're not going to do that. And how the more we rely on 787 00:48:45,960 --> 00:48:49,840 predictive algorithms, the more we're losing that innovation and 788 00:48:49,840 --> 00:48:52,320 that boldness and that creativity and that humor. 789 00:48:52,400 --> 00:48:56,520 Yep, there is nothing like comedy to short circuit your 790 00:48:57,200 --> 00:49:00,120 serious gene. I love it. 791 00:49:00,280 --> 00:49:02,440 OK, that's. I had to this is this is such a 792 00:49:02,440 --> 00:49:05,120 dumb little addition, but I'm going to say it anyway. 793 00:49:05,120 --> 00:49:07,920 I, I, my wife and I went to see Seinfeld stand up. 794 00:49:08,280 --> 00:49:11,520 I actually was laughing so hard and for so long. 795 00:49:11,520 --> 00:49:14,480 I thought I had to leave to like for my health. 796 00:49:15,280 --> 00:49:18,800 I I couldn't stop laughing. My stomach was it was it was 797 00:49:18,800 --> 00:49:24,080 crazy, but no comedy has such a such a beautiful way to disarm 798 00:49:24,680 --> 00:49:31,040 people and the most brilliant comedians access that button and 799 00:49:31,040 --> 00:49:34,320 then deliver such profound messages to it. 800 00:49:34,320 --> 00:49:38,200 So I think it's like a like Mark said, I think it's a great piece 801 00:49:38,200 --> 00:49:43,760 of this book that couples your this this almost irreverent. 802 00:49:43,760 --> 00:49:46,080 I'm just going to say whatever the hell I want because I 803 00:49:46,080 --> 00:49:48,880 believe in it so hard and the message needs to be heard. 804 00:49:49,680 --> 00:49:51,320 It was a great, it was a great balance. 805 00:49:52,240 --> 00:49:54,240 Thank you. And I and I find that comedy is 806 00:49:54,240 --> 00:49:57,000 good for creativity. It kind of makes you lose, it 807 00:49:57,000 --> 00:50:01,080 makes you client it, it it puts you in in the kind of state of 808 00:50:01,080 --> 00:50:06,320 mind that I think makes for better decisions and more 809 00:50:06,320 --> 00:50:10,680 insight. Give me one piece, 1 little 810 00:50:10,680 --> 00:50:13,560 thread of this book and it could be a small little nugget when 811 00:50:13,560 --> 00:50:16,640 you were writing it and you're like, this is very personal. 812 00:50:16,640 --> 00:50:20,840 This is very locked into my mindset that you would wish 813 00:50:21,080 --> 00:50:25,680 someone reading the book would grab and want to ask you about. 814 00:50:25,680 --> 00:50:32,680 There's so much of it because for the first time, I, I told 815 00:50:32,680 --> 00:50:36,040 personal stories and I've never done that before in writing. 816 00:50:36,120 --> 00:50:40,040 And it's scary, but it's also nice and, and interesting and, 817 00:50:40,320 --> 00:50:45,240 and partly comes from me being very grateful to authors who are 818 00:50:45,240 --> 00:50:47,960 willing to do that to, to tell me where they're coming from, to 819 00:50:47,960 --> 00:50:49,760 tell me what kind of person I'm talking with. 820 00:50:50,160 --> 00:50:52,840 Because a book is a kind of conversation between the author 821 00:50:53,120 --> 00:50:55,920 and, and, and the reader. And I think when you guard 822 00:50:55,920 --> 00:50:59,960 yourself to well and, and you come up with a view, a pretended 823 00:50:59,960 --> 00:51:02,680 view from nowhere, there's a kind of distancing that, that 824 00:51:02,680 --> 00:51:06,000 you impose on that, on that relationship that I didn't, I 825 00:51:06,000 --> 00:51:08,480 didn't want to impose this time around. 826 00:51:09,120 --> 00:51:15,800 So perhaps one story that is, yeah, quite, quite personal. 827 00:51:15,800 --> 00:51:19,480 And and that makes me think about how everything could have 828 00:51:19,560 --> 00:51:29,440 been different is about how when my grandmother fled Spain, she 829 00:51:29,440 --> 00:51:34,200 was too pregnant to go the whole trip by boat and then and then, 830 00:51:34,240 --> 00:51:36,320 and then train. And so my family bought her a 831 00:51:36,320 --> 00:51:39,320 plane ticket from New York City and into Mexico. 832 00:51:39,320 --> 00:51:43,800 But she was so pregnant that a flight attendant asked her 833 00:51:44,000 --> 00:51:47,000 whether she had a doctor's note that giving her permission to 834 00:51:47,000 --> 00:51:49,680 fly and she didn't. And so she had to get off that 835 00:51:49,680 --> 00:51:53,600 flight and and go to the to the doctor at the airport for a 836 00:51:53,600 --> 00:51:56,680 note. And that flight crashed and my 837 00:51:56,680 --> 00:51:59,680 family thought that that that she she was dead. 838 00:52:00,240 --> 00:52:07,560 And how those unpredictable acts and unpredictable events change 839 00:52:07,960 --> 00:52:13,680 the whole of somebody's history. The personal nature of your 840 00:52:13,680 --> 00:52:18,640 stories in this book make the connection between author and 841 00:52:18,640 --> 00:52:23,240 reader more more impactful. I think as I was reading the 842 00:52:23,240 --> 00:52:26,280 book I got, I got a sense for for that as well. 843 00:52:26,440 --> 00:52:28,560 I felt like I had to act more reading it. 844 00:52:28,560 --> 00:52:35,560 It felt like a it was the batteries that I need to, I 845 00:52:35,560 --> 00:52:39,280 don't know, fight back is the right way to describe it, but to 846 00:52:39,280 --> 00:52:44,880 be conscious of what is happening and it gave me the 847 00:52:44,880 --> 00:52:47,800 fuel for that. In that sense, I think one of 848 00:52:47,800 --> 00:52:50,520 the stories that I find more inspirational is, is the one 849 00:52:50,520 --> 00:52:55,800 about Kadikov, the the Nobel Prize winner who helped come up 850 00:52:55,800 --> 00:53:02,160 with the RNA vaccine, the obstacles that she had to face 851 00:53:02,160 --> 00:53:06,720 and how she persisted in the face of being ignored by 852 00:53:06,720 --> 00:53:11,120 academia and being harassed in academia and being demoted. 853 00:53:11,320 --> 00:53:14,040 And she's just stuck with it because she knew she was right 854 00:53:14,040 --> 00:53:17,120 and she was right. And how, how much talent are we 855 00:53:17,120 --> 00:53:20,040 losing out on because people might not be as persistent? 856 00:53:20,520 --> 00:53:23,640 And how, how can we make things easier for that kind of person 857 00:53:23,640 --> 00:53:26,000 to thrive? Because we need that talent. 858 00:53:26,000 --> 00:53:28,800 We we, we benefit a lot from that vaccine. 859 00:53:29,320 --> 00:53:33,160 This, this book was a spark for me, as it was for Mark and I 860 00:53:33,160 --> 00:53:37,640 hope other readers as well, to kind of grab it and, and, and 861 00:53:37,640 --> 00:53:41,680 feel empowered as an individual cause so often in society, we're 862 00:53:41,680 --> 00:53:45,040 just a piece of the puzzle and we think we're, this goes back 863 00:53:45,040 --> 00:53:48,520 to the business of busy and you know, oh, I can't affect this. 864 00:53:48,520 --> 00:53:51,920 I can't affect that. This power is too much And, and, 865 00:53:52,080 --> 00:53:55,320 and this, this is fuel. So let's talk about some of 866 00:53:55,320 --> 00:53:58,920 these takeaways that you have in the end that I that I really 867 00:53:58,920 --> 00:54:02,320 love. I'd love to pick out a few that 868 00:54:02,320 --> 00:54:05,000 that resonated with me. Mark and and Mark, feel free to 869 00:54:05,000 --> 00:54:08,200 jump in on your side. Let's talk about increase 870 00:54:08,720 --> 00:54:13,480 serendipity that that one. Just talk us through that and 871 00:54:14,200 --> 00:54:17,080 let's unpack it a little bit. That's my favorite. 872 00:54:17,520 --> 00:54:19,400 I was, I was thinking about that one exactly. 873 00:54:19,400 --> 00:54:27,160 Now, one of the downfalls of the tyranny of predictions is that 874 00:54:27,160 --> 00:54:30,400 you get told where to go, where to be, and who to meet. 875 00:54:30,400 --> 00:54:33,600 And if you just follow that, then somebody else is deciding 876 00:54:33,800 --> 00:54:37,640 what you're exposed to. And one of the ways to fight 877 00:54:37,640 --> 00:54:41,080 against that tyranny of the of prediction is to increase your 878 00:54:41,080 --> 00:54:43,160 serendipity. And, and how do you do that? 879 00:54:43,640 --> 00:54:47,040 Well, essentially by being open to the world, by reading widely. 880 00:54:47,360 --> 00:54:51,040 So read things outside of your comfort zone and outside of your 881 00:54:51,200 --> 00:54:55,160 field of expertise. I've I've gotten so much out of 882 00:54:55,160 --> 00:54:57,280 books. You can only live once. 883 00:54:57,520 --> 00:55:00,240 But if you can read, you can live many lives in one life. 884 00:55:00,240 --> 00:55:04,920 And that is an incredible gift. But also meet people, talk with 885 00:55:04,920 --> 00:55:09,400 strangers. The more I read about difficult 886 00:55:09,400 --> 00:55:13,840 political times in the past, I realize that one of the most 887 00:55:13,840 --> 00:55:18,520 effective weapons of bad governments is to erode the 888 00:55:18,520 --> 00:55:21,880 relationship between citizens. And part of how we fight back 889 00:55:22,160 --> 00:55:25,520 against that is just being comfortable with strangers. 890 00:55:25,800 --> 00:55:30,280 That strangers around you, for the most part, are probably 891 00:55:30,280 --> 00:55:31,760 friends you just haven't met yet. 892 00:55:32,240 --> 00:55:35,200 And to have that comfort of striking up a conversation with 893 00:55:35,200 --> 00:55:38,120 a stranger and learning something new and being curious 894 00:55:38,120 --> 00:55:40,440 about the world, being curious about what it's like to be 895 00:55:40,440 --> 00:55:46,600 someone else, being willing to rethink things. 896 00:55:46,640 --> 00:55:48,160 Does a chair have to look like that? 897 00:55:48,160 --> 00:55:49,680 What if it looked like something else? 898 00:55:50,000 --> 00:55:52,320 To innovate and design from scratch? 899 00:55:52,840 --> 00:55:55,840 And in general, make the metaphor that I like the most is 900 00:55:55,840 --> 00:55:59,560 just take strolls along the beach because you never know 901 00:55:59,560 --> 00:56:02,080 what the tide might bring. Beautiful. 902 00:56:04,560 --> 00:56:07,960 My my favorite is to go home and watch Fawlty Towers or watch 903 00:56:07,960 --> 00:56:10,000 Seinfeld or put on an old Bill Hicks video. 904 00:56:10,000 --> 00:56:12,200 Put on some comedy. Get on on that. 905 00:56:12,600 --> 00:56:19,040 I will choose one because I think there's a strange link 906 00:56:19,280 --> 00:56:24,120 between this one and some circles in big tech that 907 00:56:24,120 --> 00:56:31,080 Stoicism has become the go to philosophy for many in not just 908 00:56:31,080 --> 00:56:33,560 not just in Silicon Valley, but on on the Internet. 909 00:56:33,560 --> 00:56:38,280 It's almost like the this, the prophecy runs hand in hand with 910 00:56:38,280 --> 00:56:42,440 Stoicism. Live in the present. 911 00:56:42,760 --> 00:56:46,760 Could you speak to that one? Yes, and even though I 912 00:56:46,760 --> 00:56:50,480 sympathize with a lot of what Stoicism has to say in the book, 913 00:56:50,480 --> 00:56:54,600 I make the case for Epicureanism because they share a lot of the 914 00:56:54,600 --> 00:56:58,480 good stuff. So both of them think that part 915 00:56:58,480 --> 00:57:03,360 of what makes life good are the simple pleasures in life and 916 00:57:03,360 --> 00:57:05,400 tempering your desire and your fear. 917 00:57:05,840 --> 00:57:11,080 And one major difference between Epicureans and Stoics is that 918 00:57:11,080 --> 00:57:14,480 Epicureans were a lot more democratic and they. 919 00:57:14,480 --> 00:57:18,080 Epicurious famously had a garden in which everyone was welcomed, 920 00:57:18,080 --> 00:57:23,840 including slaves and women. And they thought against Stoics 921 00:57:24,320 --> 00:57:29,520 that there was no fate. That even though there are 922 00:57:29,720 --> 00:57:33,080 elements that constrain our freedom, there are some things 923 00:57:33,080 --> 00:57:38,200 that still allow us a lot of leeway to write our own life. 924 00:57:38,200 --> 00:57:42,640 Whereas storyism is much more about accepting your fate and 925 00:57:42,640 --> 00:57:47,200 believing in divination and and that makes for a huge 926 00:57:47,200 --> 00:57:49,040 difference. Another thing that I really like 927 00:57:49,040 --> 00:57:54,000 about Epicureanism is its emphasis on friendship. 928 00:57:55,600 --> 00:58:02,560 And I think in Western society we value a lot the family. 929 00:58:02,560 --> 00:58:06,640 And of course, I value family as well, and we value professional 930 00:58:06,640 --> 00:58:11,520 relationships, but I don't think we give friendship, including 931 00:58:11,520 --> 00:58:15,440 civic friendship, friendship between citizens, the value that 932 00:58:15,440 --> 00:58:25,440 it should have and the basic idea of Epicureans is that deep 933 00:58:25,440 --> 00:58:28,800 down, what people really fear is death. 934 00:58:29,600 --> 00:58:34,200 And if you can have the courage to look death in the eye, to 935 00:58:34,200 --> 00:58:40,360 accept that we're mortal beings, and to lose that very extreme 936 00:58:40,360 --> 00:58:43,360 fear, to know that when death comes, you won't be there 937 00:58:43,360 --> 00:58:45,800 anymore. And so there is less to fear 938 00:58:47,480 --> 00:58:50,200 that you are much less vulnerable to profits and much 939 00:58:50,200 --> 00:58:55,480 more easily willing to live in the present. 940 00:58:55,720 --> 00:58:59,600 Because if you're not afraid of what's to come and you're not 941 00:59:00,320 --> 00:59:05,680 desiring things that you can't, you can never completely 942 00:59:05,680 --> 00:59:08,000 satisfy. So Epicurious makes this 943 00:59:08,000 --> 00:59:11,280 distinction between desires that you can satisfy, like if you're 944 00:59:11,280 --> 00:59:14,760 hungry, eventually you will be satisfied or if you're thirsty. 945 00:59:15,440 --> 00:59:19,480 Whereas if you are lusting over fame or fortune, you will never 946 00:59:19,480 --> 00:59:21,800 be satisfied because you could always be more famous and you 947 00:59:21,800 --> 00:59:25,400 could always be richer. So once you temper the the fear, 948 00:59:25,560 --> 00:59:30,160 which at the end of the day is fear of death and desire, by 949 00:59:30,160 --> 00:59:33,800 focusing on desires that can be fulfilled, then the prophet has 950 00:59:33,800 --> 00:59:36,520 nothing to offer you because you're living in the present and 951 00:59:36,520 --> 00:59:39,280 enjoying yourself. And when you're reading a good 952 00:59:39,280 --> 00:59:42,520 novel or in a comedy show or really enjoying a conversation 953 00:59:42,520 --> 00:59:46,920 with your friend, who cares what the prophet is prophesizing? 954 00:59:47,240 --> 00:59:50,280 Let them talk. They lose their their power over 955 00:59:50,280 --> 00:59:50,440 you.