Hey everybody, and welcome to this week's episode of The DVC
Show. I'm your host Paul Krieger,
joined as always by my lovely wife Amy Krieger.
Hello. Before we dive into today's
discussion, I did want to take a moment and share a quick but
profound update regarding the future of our show today.
You might notice things look a little different around here,
and that is because our dear friend Panda, AKA John Sicari
has decided to step away from DVC Fan and the DVC Show.
We do respect this decision. We are dear friends of him and
we do wish him nothing but the best.
He's been an important part of this community for the past
several years, and we truly hope that we can convince him to come
back from time to time and be a guest.
You're probably wondering about the future of our show, but rest
assured, the four of us, Paul, Derek, Jeff and I are going to
be here each and every Monday to give you the best, you know,
most updated DVC news. We do, out of respect for Panda,
do not have plans to immediately, you know, fill his
permanent seat. But in the meantime, we plan to
listen to the feedback from you, our DVC fan community.
And you know, throughout, you may see some familiar friends,
you may see some new faces, you know, as we look to inject some
new opinions, demographics, and just some new voices into the
show. But one thing's for certain, we
do plan to be here every Monday giving you the latest and
hopefully Derek's corny jokes too.
So. Derek, Jeff, anything you guys
want to add? Just to kind of echo what you
already said, you know, we wish him well.
We're, you know, we're, we're excited to see what he does
next. We'll miss him, but he's close
by. He just texted me the other day
to ask me to go to Animal Kingdom with him.
So it's not like he's far away. Yeah, and he is truly one of the
sweetest people in the whole entire world.
We know that we're going to see him in the parks.
We'll probably wind up going out to dinner with them again.
We wish him nothing but the absolute best.
He is such an amazing, amazing person that we have.
He made us a a better show. So we love you, Panda.
Love you panda. On this week's episode of the
DVC Show, we decided to come back around to something that I
think we talked about maybe three or four months ago.
But you guys loved and ate up that show.
I try not to go too deep and dark into the numbers realm on
these shows because one, someone's going to say, well,
you didn't carry the nine and six seven it all the way to the
8 and that never goes well. And so I, you know, none of us
do the math when it comes to DVC the same way.
I feel like you're just. Very an emotional DVC buyer.
I don't do math at all. You do for a while, I'm pretty
sure, but that's scary. I just buy it.
But we did a show that was kind of a market update that talked
about, you know, what's happening both in the direct
realm of Disney Vacation Club sales and also what's happening
with the resale market. Because I think those are two
key things that are kind of moving targets.
They do change periodically. And you guys are always asking
us, is it a good time to buy, is it a good time to sell?
What time is it today? I can tell you right now it is
the 29th of October and it's about 6:00.
And I think the rest of us are starting to get hungry.
I got a pizza. Call My Name.
Oh. OK, cool.
So where we're going to start with this conversation, even
though Derek probably just wants to jump us to resale real fast,
is direct purchases. Not true direct purchases.
We wouldn't be here if it wasn't for direct purchases.
So I'm all about talking to more that people take time to learn
about it on their Disney vacation.
That's more people that then do research and then more people
that wind up answered with us. So please talk direct by all
means. And Jeff, I'm, I, I want you to
play a little role of devil, devil's advocate here on this
show, because I know that you've casually, I didn't ask you to be
a curmudgeon and just disagree with us the whole ship.
But I know that you've been considering potentially a, a
contract in the in the relatively near future.
I know you sold a contract recently.
So you've kind of lived this evolution.
I feel like he almost found one the other day.
If it was the wrong use here, didn't that just happen?
Yeah, I was so excited. But so if anything we say along
the way, you're kind of like let's dive into that a little
bit further, dig, dig in, dig into that one.
When it comes to direct sales, this is something that doesn't
change all that much, but it does.
And every quarter Disney Vacation Club comes out with
essentially what we call their direct direct like choked on it
there, the direct incentives that they are running for that
corner. So right now we're kind of in
the fall season of Disney Vacation Club and between now
and December 10th, they are running current direct
incentives. And when we say incentives,
those are for those actively selling properties that are
usually not sold out. So those include the cabins at
Fort Wilderness, Disneyland, Hotel Riviera, Aulani,
Polynesian Villas and bungalows. And for this round of
incentives, we actually have a little add on extra incentives
that Disney Vacation Club threw in there for Saratoga Springs,
but we'll hint on that a little bit more.
These are those things that you need to keep an eye on if you
are considering a direct purchase, I really think.
Yeah, so. So they change.
Sometimes they're better than others.
You know, I remember one of the best ones was when the Grand
Floridian brought in its second edition the Big Pine Key and
those direct descendants, those were some of the best I had ever
seen and I think. I was I was even telling people,
yeah, you should probably buy direct.
Yeah, and. People, people still talk about
it to this day. It was like the stuff of
legends. When members tell you, yeah, we
own the grand floor, you know, we bought it back during.
I'm like, I know the fire sale. Yeah, right.
And then we get the question, do you ever think that that will
come back? It's like, I don't, I don't
think so, but yeah. But they're they're they're kind
of always changing sometimes they're always very similar.
One of the things that one of my advice is that I, if people ask
me and they're looking at direct and they're like, I don't, you
know, I don't know if I want, if these are going to be the best
incentives or if the next incentives are going to be the
best incentives You do have. I think is it a 10 day period,
Derek, like a like a cooling off period.
So if you buy towards the end of the incentive cycle.
So if these are, these are expiring December 10th.
December 10th you. Know December 3rd but.
December, yeah, 8 or 9 or whatever.
And then you've still got those days, you know, that you can
rescind where you can find out what the next batch of
incentives are and if they're better, you know, technically
you can cancel and, and rebuy under the new incentives.
But typically I feel like usually the ones that are out
there end up being the better ones.
But it also depends on what property you're buying, so.
It does, and it really depends on what Disney Vacation Club's
trying to push. I think what we've seen with
recent round of incentives is that Fort Wilderness Cabins is
getting a little bit more love and they're trying to bring down
that price per point because news flash, if you haven't
heard, it's struggling a little bit because of those high annual
dues over at Fort Wilderness. And so they've really put a
little bit more love on the incentives over there.
These fall incentives that we recently saw come out, they're
not as high as summer was. Summer really benefited from
what was an added what they called their welcome Home weeks
bonus. So they had some special added
discounts because of the welcome home week specials that they run
during the summer months, but fall in general not as good.
I the real thing and you know, I'll cut over to Derek and Jeff
here in a second. The real thing that I wanted to,
you know, mention when it comes to direct purchases is that if
you are thinking about a direct contract for one reason or
another, buying now is always the safer bet if that is the
decision that you want. If you want that direct
purchase, if you want those benefits, the the price is
obviously, you know, going to fluctuate a little bit as we've
said with these incentives, but it's not going to historically
get cheaper. And as we sit here in the fall
and early winter months of 2025 as we head into the holidays,
January is a critical time when it comes to direct Disney
Vacation Club. Because one thing we know for
certain that is happened year after year is that the price per
point increases on all of these resorts.
So I, I really want to just drive that home is in that even
though they could increase incentives, that price per point
increase is going to negate all of that.
So the price is never cheaper than it is today.
And if you're ever wondering, you know, how do I know what the
incentives are? Where do I find them?
This guy right here? Nope.
Soon as what? Nope, not this time.
OK, every time, but this time. But normally, normally what
happens is the incentives come out.
He knows they're coming because you know when they end.
And then I roll over in the morning because I don't like
getting up till I have to be in front of my computer like 5-5
minutes till and I roll over and he's gone.
And that's because he. Just keeps rolling straight out
of the bed where I normally would weigh is.
And that's because he's up and he's writing all about the
incentive. So you can always find a really
detailed breakdown with all the charts and all the information
on DVC Fan. If you're looking for the
latest, you know, go to dvcfan.com, use the search bar.
If they just came out, they're going to be near, you know any
other top. But if, if they've been out for
a little while, use the search bar search incentives and you
can find you can look at the historical information as well.
He always has a really well laid out article about him.
So. Big shout out to Lauren De La
Cruz, who actually helped me out with this cycle.
These came out on October 1st. I just, I don't know where we
were, but I know that I had 500 other things going on.
And then I remembered it was incentives day.
Yeah. I'm like looking back at my
calendar going what were we doing on?
Oh, no, I'm in September now. What were we doing on October
1st? Yeah, it was just, I think it
was just the chaos of the beginning of the month and I
wasn't the. Beginning of month.
So we have all kinds of reports and stuff.
Yeah, we do. I was too busy writing the
resale article that I couldn't write the direct.
Article. Look at that.
Yeah. And the right and the right of
first refusal, Yeah. Average resale prices, all that.
Yeah, that's first of the month's busy. 1st of the month
is busy. We're boring Jeff already.
Jeff, any thoughts on direct? Long day, but I yeah, kicking
in. Derek, any thoughts on kind of
these direct incentives? Can you give us kind of the
behind the scenes knowledge from how maybe you guys treated these
back in your direct salesman days?
Oh, yeah. And that's why I'm glad you made
the point, Paul, is that always know that the price is always
going to go up. No one ever.
I mean, the incentives may change, but that base price will
always go up. That base price will never, ever
go down. You're never going to see the
base price, say if it's, you know, 235 or 245 now, you're
never going to see that base price drop to, Oh my God, like
215 or 220. What you'll see are those, you
know, incentives where I'm always amazed.
Like I feel like you need like a spreadsheet or a certain degree
to keep track of all the incentives that they have now.
Because it's like, here's welcome home Wednesdays and oh,
it's a Thursday. So now you pay an additional 5%
and oh, you happened to go to the Epcot yesterday.
Oh, here's an additional $500 off.
You have a Disney Visa. Well, here's this, put that on
top of it. Whereas you got to look at just
the, just the price per point. So if you know you're going to
buy direct, don't wait to do it. I mean, my God, the people in
1991 again paid like 49 bucks a point to buy old, old Key West.
I remember being a guide when the price was going up to over
$100. This is back in like 2006 or
2007 that that direct price was going to go over $100 a point.
And I think I've told this story before.
I remember talking to my friends and we're like, holy crap, do
you think people are going to buy this if it's over $100 a
point to buy direct from Disney? Now cut to, you know, 2025 where
we're at right now. When you're talking, you know,
two 35245 per point. So the direct market is
incredibly important for the resale market.
People always think, and I always like to, you know, share
this is people like, Oh my God, I bet you guys like hate each
other and blah, blah, blah, like, no, like not at all.
We've got so many great friends and if it makes sense for you to
buy direct, I will give you the name of, you know, great people
that you can purchase direct from.
But the resale market is a very, very, very, can I say the word,
very important part in direct sales because that question when
you're a direct guide is when people are looking to spend
30405060 grand on something, the question will come up, well,
what if I got to sell it, right? And so the fact that there is an
incredibly robust resale market versus every other timeshare is
like, yeah, you can sell it and you might have to sell it for
like a dollar online and no one's going to want it.
Retail is super, super important to the direct process.
So we are, you know, kind of intertwined together.
We just always encourage, you know, you got to do your
research on, you know, I, I had someone tell me and say, yeah,
this was just the the other day. Like, yeah, I met and they were
pushing, like you said, Paul, they were pushing the cabins.
And I'm a big beach club fan, Derek.
So, you know, I can still use these cabin points to get in to
the beach club during like food and wine Fest, right?
And that's when you get to go. All right, take a step back.
You got to realize you need to do your research to buy the
resort you need not just, you know, whatever it is
technically, can you use it at the beach club?
Sure you can, but that's where you know, people need to look.
What do I need to buy for whatever reason?
But if you're going to buy direct, do it sooner rather than
later because that price is only going to increase, let alone
that minimum purchase for those quote UN quote, you know, direct
perks. It's 150 now, but I guarantee
that it ain't going to be 150 a year from now.
Mark my words. On this show, Derek called it
correctly because he said that the new minimum will not be 150
by what is it, October 29th, 2026.
So make a little note in there too as.
Well. Because they kept at 1:50 for a
while. But I just a couple things I
want to say. Nostraderick.
Along Derek's lines, couple people went back and I don't
remember it was one of our oh, I think it was Jeff's questions
show and they went back and commented on it and they and
they said, hey, Paul predicted the soaring around America and
here it is. And so that because that was.
No, no, people, people look, look at me.
I can guarantee you I had nothing to do with that
decision. Hey, you don't know.
I told Dizzy to build a Monsters Inc door coaster and, and look
now, I mean, you know, you're welcome.
I'm just kidding. I did.
I that was an idea I had a long time ago, but they probably did
too. So I do want to say something
about incentives, you know, and Derek brought up the 150 most
often the direct incentives don't start until you buy 150
points, right? Is that usually the case?
We've. Seen some lower ones, especially
if you're looking to add on at. Like a for member resort.
But for for new member incentives, the only one.
And again, you know, surprise, we're we're beating a dead horse
here. The only one that has that
actually had special incentives this past cycle was for.
Wilderness. So you could actually buy in
Fort Wilderness at A at a lower, they had incentive starting as
well as 100 points for first time buyers, which was kind of
unheard of. You know, that's that's kind of
rare. Here and then along the other
thing I've heard and you can tell me if I'm wrong on this,
but just seeing people talking in the community that they
lowered the minimum buy insurance for all resorts.
OK. So that that kind of is telling,
I think, yeah. I think it goes back to what we
said about direct sales over the course of the, the past several
years. Even if you go back, I, I, I
can't believe it's been like 6 years since the pandemic.
I know it's very weird to talk about it that way because it
just feels like I feel like all of us that lived through that,
that's always just going to feel like yesterday because it was
like this lost moment in space of our life.
But for me, it always feels like it was so recent.
But if we go back from emerging from that point in time, I think
part of the goal with direct sales has been to sell where we
can sell, sell points where and however we can sell points.
That's why we saw Big Pine Key become another addition to the
Grand Floridian is they said what's an easy win for us.
And that was a, that was a very simple easy win.
And so I, I think that you know that that mindset continues to
drive it that mindset. The same leadership has been in
place as we've kind of emerged over the past few years that has
driven those decisions. So I think we'll just continue
to see a lot of that in the coming years as to if we can
sell it, we're going to sell it. Yeah, like, I mean, you even
mentioning, you know, and going through all the resorts that
currently have promotion, it, it made my head explode just
because I remember being a Disney Vacation Club guide and
I've told this story. It's like we had one resort to
sell. That was it because you didn't
want people to have too many choices.
So then they say the words that any direct guy doesn't want to
hear no matter what is this is great, but I need to go home to
think about it. That's what you don't want to
hear. So if you're leaving and you've
got 5 different price sheets for five.
Different. Words, whereas before it was
here you go, you got the Boardwalk, that's it, that's how
much it costs and that's it. Like that was so much easier.
So I don't envy the fact because it does give people so many more
choices. And then you throw in the resale
market too, which again, research is like, well, you know
what? OK, well, I can buy any resort.
So I mean, now technically you've got all the resorts on
the resale side, but you get to look to say, how many points do
I really need and which resort do I really need?
That's most important. Jeff, any advice to someone
considering a direct purchase right now?
Yeah, just kind of what you guys said by don't wait because it's
just going to cost you more money.
Like, I made the worst mistake when it comes to DVC in that
when I wanted to buy, it was only 75 points minimum, and I
waited. By the time I bought, it was
125. And that was a very short time
frame in between those two, those two numbers.
So yeah, it's going to get more expensive.
Whether Derek's right or not, you know, the future.
We'll see. He's typically wrong though, so
we'll see how it goes. But I thought when you when you
said your worst mistake when it came to DVC was agreeing to be
on this show. You know, I love you guys.
I love most of you guys. Most of you guys.
While we're on that, now that his, now that his sleepover time
with me and his beer fest is done, now he can go back to
being mean to me. I get it.
You can You can find more information on that topic on
patreon.com/DVCfan. I I did want to take the
question to ask when it comes to direct sales.
First, I did want to say and end this part of the conversation
with to Derek's point of multiple choices.
If you've been thinking about Riviera Direct, that window is
aggressively closing. That is.
True. A year from now, I am certain
that we it either will be sold out or we will be saying that
Disney is announcing that it is sold out for direct sales at
that time. It is interesting though what
they might do with that property because that will be the first
sold out property that has restrictions.
So I'm curious to see if they treat it a little bit
differently, maybe kind of how they how they view that
property. Well, they could, they could row
for a lot more at a lower price and just continue.
So continue on depending on what the demand is, you know what I
mean? That's always going to be
independent. That's.
What I was going to say, because of resale restrictions, you
know, that's probably the biggest value disparity.
Yeah, absolutely. Then had to turn around and sell
it because of those restrictions.
There's a big jump. Yeah, Disney those up and flip
them pretty darn easily. And yeah, Derek, I think.
We're going to have to start. Looking at those strategies,
because I was just doing some quick math while you guys were
talking. And when you start looking at
the 2042 resorts and what those quote, UN quote sold out numbers
are because there's not a lot of life left on those contract that
that price per point over the, over the term of your mortgage
or the term of your ownership is really high.
Now it's higher and it's only going to get higher and higher.
Higher because you have less time to use it, right?
Yeah, this goes back to my math equation when we were talking
with Tracy and Rob a few weeks ago.
You know, based on what they're selling for right now, old Key
West ends up being like $12.65 a point for the longevity of the
contract. And we don't need to get into
the weeds here. That's that's high compared to
almost anything else. So.
That's a really good point. They're going to have to start
doubling down on these resorts that are newer.
Yeah, Yeah. That is a really good point
though, because when you say, you know, the prices are going
to go up, you know, if you want to buy, you might want to think
about doing it soon. Like at the same time the
expiration dates are getting closer.
And so, you know, if you buy it now versus 6 months from now,
you've got 6 less months of use for probably the same price or
more. So that is, that is something to
consider. And sorry, and that's a great
point, chef, is that you can go online onto the DVC resale
market. That's why I got my glasses on
is every quarter we, we published one, it's called the
most economical resorts to purchase and you can go through
and we take all of those things into consideration.
So we take, you know, price per point, the amount of years left,
the annual dues and we break it out.
And yeah, I mean, old Key West is kind of down near the bottom.
You know, it's not as bad as like a even a beach club or a
Bureau beach or Hilton Head boardwalk, Old Key West.
So you've got 12345. The bottom fives are all 2040
twos. There's going to be a point that
that Disney's not even going to be able to sell them anymore
because there's just, it's just not going to be worth it for
people to. There are too many other options
now with with later dates. It's going to be interesting to
see how that unfolds, you know, and I think Jeff, I mean.
You brought up a great point with the Riviera is because when
sellers do come to me and they come to come to sell it, I mean
you're looking at I think our average resale price like last
month was somewhere like 118. I was going to ask you what that
was, Derek. Yeah.
We're talking about people, people that paid say
215-220-5235. It's the it's like a car, you'd
lost $100 a point the second you sign that direct contract.
So that's where people will say, well, who the heck would buy it
then? Because you can only stay at one
resort. Who's buying it?
Who loves to buy it? Members, resale vacation club
members that only have access to, you know, the 14 original
DVC resorts, they look at that price per point and realize, I
mean, I had someone snag a Riviera for like 105 per point
and they go, they're just perfect.
So I got my, you know, resale points that I've got the 14, but
we love the Riviera. So now we'll add on a couple
nights or maybe we'll do every other year just with those
Riviera points because you can't eat it for 100 to 120 per point.
So that's how. It works.
For. Not new members, not new
members. You know, I always say, you
know, people go, oh, we love the Riviera.
We stayed there and we're thinking about being about, but
I'm like, you don't want to buy it like as a new member,
honestly, just because you're going to see the Polynesian and
the Grand Floridian and Peyt Lake Tower or Animal Kingdom
ago. God, I wish I could use my
resale points to, you know, be able to stay there.
But yeah, for for members, it's a slam dunk.
There's another group that's buying those too though, and I
almost fell into this group three times last month and
that's the ones that need instant gratification.
I have no points until March. If I buy with Disney, I get my
points today. If I buy resell, I might not get
more points before the end of the year.
And I need to book a trip in February, so.
True. So you say you almost bought
direct recently? I almost.
Did because you wanted the point.
What am I doing? And I backed up and I said I'll
just rent some points from. He was at the table ready to
sign, and then he said Nope, just take me the ice.
Just take me to the ice cream place.
Let me have some ice cream. Shit, Yeah.
This was this was after he went to the beer fest.
I think I need some direct points.
So I want to go back to the Nostraderrick for a second here
because I, I, I want, I want another bold prediction, another
question that's come up. And we, we played the
conversation a little bit through on our DVC fan
Oktoberfest live stream. But a lot of questions are
starting to pop up about Disney Lakeshore Lodge and when we are
going to see point sales begin for that resort.
And a lot of people also are saying when is that resort going
to open? All that I will tell you is it
took what, 7 years, 6-7 years for them to build Tron?
The speed at which they are building this resort is a
construction project that I don't think any of us have seen
at Walt Disney World for for quite some time.
We were just at Bay Lake Tower for the Wine and Dine half
Marathon weekend and again, just looking over there going, yeah,
holy moly, like that thing is, is is topped out and yeah, as
windows. And if you haven't seen it, we
posted an article things to the photos from Is it called Bio
Reconstruct? You got it.
Look at that. OK, they had some really cool
aerial photos of the whole resort and area.
And so we posted some, you know, just an article just detailing,
you know, this is what's going on this like you can see the
lazy river coming together and the little triangle, you know, a
frame cabins and those are going to be really cool because
they're also they're like right along the lake.
But also you can just see how overwhelmingly close is that.
I wouldn't even say close. It is on Fort Wilderness
property that is on top of, you know, behind the, the hotel, the
new, you know, the new Lakeshore lodge is where Tri Circle D
Ranch is. And then right next to it is
where the complex that that holds Pioneer Hall and trails,
trails end and, and those sorts of places.
So it is. It is right there.
And it what's crazy for me is that the look around Bay Lake,
the lake is now becoming kind of the same look as it is around 7
Seas Lagoon where you could see all the resorts.
Now from Bay Lake you can see Fort Wilderness and see
Lakeshore Lodge in the distance and you can see Wilderness Lodge
off to the side also. And it's just like, are they
just going to keep loop? And I know there's homes on the
far side of of the lake, but, you know, are we just going to
keep expanding out this way? Probably.
They're probably going to have to add another stop to the
Electric Water pageant too. I mean, I really they will.
They'll have it in front of there, don't you think?
Yeah, if you would, Yeah, 'cause I think the owners of of that
resort would want to. And we have seen there are some
pylons and stuff that suggests that there's probably going to
be its own independent water taxi station and water
transportation going right from Lakeshore Lodge.
But my question to come down to it is when do we think Lakeshore
Lodge is going to open for direct sales 'cause that is a
thing that a lot of people are kind of going back and forth
right now on? Is do I, do I buy one of these
properties 'cause I know that I can lock in, you know, probably
a lower price right now and become that direct member right
now by buying one of those? Or do I wait for Lakeshore
Lodge? So, Jeff, I'll, I'll start with
you. Oh, man, I you guys are the pros
of this. I have no earthly idea.
I've never been plugged into the timeline.
I've only been with you guys for a couple years on the show.
I don't know, August, Sure. What the hell?
It's gonna happen. It's.
Gonna happen. It's gonna happen, August.
It's gonna go back. Oh my God.
Jeff said he had no clue what he was talking about.
I bet he knew back then. I bet he knew August. 5th I will
say this, the speed in which this thing like you guys were
saying has gone up compared to even the Polly tower is really
just it is mind blowing because it's triple the size of the
Polly tower and it feels like it's almost done.
I mean it's not. I know it's got a lot of indoor
work to do and and stuff, but man, it felt like Polly Tower
took a really long time to build and this one's just like.
Lego, I know. Can you believe that, that in a
few months we're coming up on the Poly Tower, having been open
for a whole year too? Yeah, So that's crazy.
And they just had another declaration of rooms at the Poly
Island Tower. I would say it's quickly
approaching about 50% in terms of I think like declared
inventory. And you know that that's another
one that I think all of these timelines are going to align
when it comes to, you know, what the next move is because they
need and maybe that's why they're rushing.
I don't know. Is the date still 2027, or are
they pushing to get this thing out a little bit earlier because
they know that Riviera is going to sell out.
The Island Tower is selling faster than probably they
thought. And then what are you?
What are you left with? The cabins at Fort Wilderness?
Yeah, I'd be worried. I'd be worried.
That's what that's what happened.
Legit when the first Grand Floridian went on sale, it had 0
promotions whatsoever. So imagine you know, you're
learning about this new DVC resort.
It was the Grand Floridian. There was 0 promotions.
It was the price. It was so selling so quick that
they had to keep raising the price.
Like normally they might raise the price maybe a couple times a
year, if that. But the Polynesian was, you
know, not even close to being ready.
And they were almost selling out of the grand too fast.
So every, I swear to God, it felt like every two months we
were telling members price increase, yeah, 5 bucks a .10
bucks a point. And people were still going
crazy buying the Grand Floridian.
I don't know exactly when Lakeshore Lodge will go on sale,
but I cannot in any way, shape or form see that resort going on
sale while they're still selling.
At minimum the Riviera. Riviera will 100% because now
you cannot give people 18 choices of new resorts.
Being. Built to buy direct.
So I think Riviera has to sell out.
Then there are other push then they still have the Polynesian
because again, that's that's that's location goal.
I mean, if I was going to buy direct, I'd be like that's a no
brainer for me. It's the Polynesian 1 and done.
So if they have, here's Lakeshore Lodge and we're in the
final push for the Polynesian, you know, which one do you think
is going to work best for you? And oh by the way, Lakeshore
Lodge, you can use your points at the cabin because it's all
part. Of so that was.
Disclaimer, this is pure speculation on Derek's part and
ours. Yeah, that that was going to
kind of probably be my answer. And I would almost do two things
if I were Disney. I would steal as much as I want
to report on what Lakeshore Lodge is going to be, I would
steal a playbook from Universal right now.
And I wouldn't announce a thing for Lakeshore Lodge until until
we get to that point that Riviera is sold out.
And then you do it all at once. It's a double whammy.
Riviera is sold out. Guess what?
And here's your giant reveal of Lakeshore Lodge.
And you guess what? It goes on sale next week and.
So don't don't come out with like your Tuesday morning blogs
of here's pictures and menus for all the restaurants that are
going to be at Lakeshore Lodge and oh, this resort doesn't open
for another year because then all you're doing is you're
building excitement for people to learn about the club that
say, again, you know what? This is nice, but I'm just going
to wait to buy when Lakeshore Lodge goes on sale.
You're exactly right. Stop with showing all the
details. Just let it build.
When Bailey Tower went on sale, that sucker, I swear to God, was
up there forever and they never even announced it.
Everyone knew that it was the first DVC monorail resort, but
Disney didn't say DVC would deny everything.
We used to. We used to have to be like, I
don't know if it's DVC. I mean, it could be like a
Walmart, you know. So they waited till the last
possible minute and they need. To do that, yeah, because you,
you build that like you're right.
You build that anticipation. And then now you've got a sense
of urgency. Oh, it goes on sale next week.
We've got to make this decision. We got to buy.
Yep. And they need to staff it.
They need to staff these cell centers so that when people want
to see it, cuz with 900 or whatever rooms they're building
at this place, you can't show up and say, I want to see this new
building. And they say, well, you'll have
to come back Thursday between like 11:30 and 11:45.
They can't do it this time. Like it's hard enough to get
into the Poly. It's hard enough to see the
cabins. The Boardwalk 1 doesn't even
really exist. Canada, don't even get me
started. Like, hold on.
I just don't understand why they don't want to sell.
They don't want to take people's money when people are fired up
and excited about it. They have to staff those centers
20 well, not 24/7, but. I I had a moment of shock at
going. To say exactly what I.
Know you're going to say I had a moment of shock at the Run
Disney Expo and this wasn't this wasn't a cast member who
recognized us or knew us or anything.
We were just walking past the DVC booth and we barely glanced
at it because Paul was like, oh, they're giving out those water
bottles again. You know, we've already got them
and we were walking and the are there.
Are they guides at that table or are they just ASA they?
Have to be ASA. OK.
The ASA that was there, he walked out of his way, stopped
us, said, are you guys runners, handed us the stickers and,
like, asked if we wanted a water bottle, asked if we were
members. And that was like, normally they
don't make eye contact with you unless you're really kind of up
in their business. And they are like, oh, OK.
But that was very surprising for me.
But he came over out of his way outside the booth, you know, to
give us stuff, to ask us if we were running, to ask us if we
wanted a water bottle. That is what they need more of.
They need more of that at the booths, you know, that actually
make eye contact that, you know, ask you how you're doing, see if
you want to learn anything. You know what I mean?
Like it's not being pushy. You can, you know, you can
always say, oh, thanks, no, thank you.
And that's fine. But like it did not have eye
contact made when I walk by those DVC booths.
I think it's I don't it just bothers.
Me, it reminds me of we're, we're in a new build community
and there's a bunch of other new build communities around us at
the moment, but there's someone that apparently works for our
builder that stands on the corner of our development.
With. With the spinner sign under her
arm and she's on her phone and she just stands there and we
were running the other day and we passed the other community
and this lady's getting it and she's she's sitting in the sign
and. She's gone and I was like, not
that. Yes, that is how it's done.
So kudos to the guy that was working the run Disney X-ray.
I was, I was impressed, you know, and in shock.
It was like taken aback, like, Oh my gosh, this is in the eyes.
What do I? Say.
What do I say back? Stickers with Moana on them.
That's all true because they, they do, I mean, and I know that
they still do because they have such an amazing training team
for both guides and Asas. And I don't know how much it's
different because even guide training, you know, back in my,
it was like, this was a long time ago, but it was like 2
months of training that I think might be less, you know, and I
think it might be the same for the ASAS, which are such a
crucial role in it. And the best Asas are the ones
that don't go out there focused on numbers on booking tours.
They're the ones that I'm still such great friends with them and
their top performers are, are the ones that say they're
working a booth in Epcot. And if a guy walks by wearing a
Chicago Bear shirt, hold shout, go Bears or go Packers and
they'll start a conversation and next thing you know that person
has booked a tour. It's about finding that
commonality with them. Members will always go up to any
booth in Kiat. They love to talk.
And. They want to talk about points
and they want to talk about that.
And it's funny because Jeff had mentioned the Canada Place in
Epcot when Amy and I were at Epcot not that long ago, we were
there and I was just watching it and watching what was going on.
And I was just like, God, that is such a missed opportunity to
not try to book someone on tour, but to just have a place where
you can walk through. Put it, put the rooms behind
glass. I don't care like a like a zoo
exhibit, but at least you can walk through and see like, oh,
there's a Poly room, There's a Poly one bedroom.
And then at the end. Would you like more information?
Here's some general info. I, I can't even get through the
door and I'm like intimidated of like walking up by the front
door because I don't want to be like, well, I don't want to go
on tour or I don't want to do any of that.
And I just realized how many families that are perfect for
Disney Vacation Club that, you know, get scared or don't want
to come back like Jeff said. Oh, next slots available is next
Thursday at 9:00 AM. And you're like, well, no
thanks. I'll go home and buy resale.
So. Yeah, Well, yeah.
Derek, as a salesman, we both worked in sales.
I know Paul has two. Who's the easiest sell, the
person that comes to you or the one that you have to go get?
You know what I mean? Like it's if I've showed up,
I've clearly there's an interest there.
Why turn me away ever? Why?
I don't understand it. And like you said, people plan
these Disney World vacations months in advance.
They've got spreadsheets, they've got dining reservations,
they've got fast passes. Maybe next Thursday at 11:45
doesn't work for them. Like they're there now.
Don't let them leave. No, no.
And and it doesn't make me want it even more.
It makes me go. That DVC thing seemed kind of
interesting, but I couldn't talk to anyone and I couldn't see a
room. I mean, Google, is it DVC
resale? Oh, the DVC resale market.
Oh, let me look at that. You're shooting yourself in the
full. You've got people that are on
vacation covered in Pixie dust. Show them a model.
Just, you know, don't say it's,
you know, an hour and a half, two hours long.
People don't want to hear that. Just get them.
You should. You're losing people.
You should almost always have someone on standby that is
there, you know, waiting for that call from an ASA that says
I've, I've got a real good lead right now.
Let's let's get them in a room and, and let's talk with them or
keep, keep every other appointment open so that you
have the people like Jeff and, and, and your friends that show
up at Fort Wilderness. And it's like, yeah, let's,
let's head right in. Yeah, we, we went to Saratoga
Springs that one day, different friends and all of the guides
were at lunch at the same time. Like I just I couldn't.
Sorry, we're closed. What?
Are you doing make two guys go to lunch an hour later?
I don't. Did they have the little clock
that said like back at 12:30, the Anas?
Were there, they're like, you guys could go wander around the
door and they'll be back in an hour.
We're going to go wander around, but we're not going to be back
in an hour. We're on vacation.
Yeah, my team is important too. Yeah, be our get yeah, we're
we're we got, we got lunch in an hour so.
And for anyone wondering, I don't eat lunch or dinner, I'm
always available. This is very true.
I I don't ever see the man eat. He's just out there.
I. Think I think Annie just shows
up and like just force feeds a sandwich to him while he keeps
typing while he's working all day.
So very thick. Sales on chat with like a hat
with the beer and the things the mag, the straws, the.
Little straws, stay hydrated, Derek.
Well, Speaking of resale, let's pivot this conversation because
we're very rapidly approaching almost an hour of talking about
direct sales. But another side of this is
resale and the resale market. And if you didn't know this and
you've been living in a cave and listening to this show, I write
2 very good blogs. I like to say not to my own.
Very good for DVC resale market. Don't sass me every single.
Day. They come out the 1st of the
month and one is what we call our average sales prices for the
month prior where we look at all of the sales that resale market
did that prior month and we give you all those stats.
The other is the right of first refusal report, the roofer
report. I'm not going to touch on that
one too much on this show because we are talking numbers
more than anything. The big thing I would say about
Roefer right now is that not much has changed with the
strategy of Roefer over the past few months.
And I say that on several different areas.
There has been active Roefer activity.
Disney does continue to make some strategic decisions when it
comes to Roefer. We've talked about those on this
show before, whether it's Roefer in Grand Floridian in contracts,
because that's the neighbor next door to the Polynesian and it's
an easy sell. Same thing for the Grand
Californian. It's the neighbor next door to
Disneyland Hotel. And Derek's talked about this
previously where it's really nice to be able to say that if
someone goes well, what about that place next door?
Why, certainly you can buy it. We have points available right
now. Let's go sit down and talk about
it. They've been very strategic
about those. They've also been a little bit
strategic about some old Key West buybacks here and there,
some Animal Kingdom buybacks. Anyone that does follow our
reports pretty closely probably had the question of what was
going to happen come October. October is the start of the new
Walt Disney Company fiscal year. So we always kind of go, is
anything with that strategy going to change when it comes to
Roefer and contracts, the answer is really no.
We've not seen any significant changes.
As I sit here right now, there's 12 roofers that occurred in
October. I would imagine a couple more
will have peppered in even before this video goes up and
this video will go up after the month end.
So that updated report is already over on the DVC resell
market website. So head over and read it, give
you a little bit more insight as to what got Roeford.
The big thing I would just say is that Roefer is around and
it's not something that I think you should overly be scared of.
No, but but I did have some some borrowers that it happened a few
times for them like they Derek you had they had.
An unlucky person that had like 3-3 brofers in there that.
Might have been the person we might be talking about the same
person. Sorry if we're talking about you
and you're listening to this show, but it is an oddity right
now. But it happened.
It can happen. Whoever that is, don't go to
Vegas. I.
Think it was it was old Key West, right?
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Which is always, you know, we
always tell people, listen, the right ones out there, you got
nothing to lose. So if you're thinking about it,
you know, and say, God, this is a really great deal.
But I'm afraid if it gets row for if you've got time, go for
it. You know, again, it's not like
they're buying back 100% of any contract whatsoever.
Some contracts are not bought back at all.
And you could see which ones have not been when you check
out, go to the search bar, dvcresalemarket.com search bar
type in ROFR. You can see that there's some
resorts that haven't been touched and some of those are
surprising. But you know, again, try it.
Worst case scenario is like Amy talked about we they moved over
their escrow into a different listing and try it again.
Other folks were bought back and said, you know what, this maybe
isn't the best time. Maybe that's a sign from a
higher power that I shouldn't be buying this, so I'm just going
to get my escrow refunded. So it's not like you're out any
money if Roeford doesn't work. Yeah, just a.
Person that says, oh, I'm afraid to do it.
There's people that get notified.
Most people get notified with congratulations.
And you know what day it is because they're all on DBC fan
posting. I passed this resort at this
price and everybody says congratulations,
congratulations. So it's out there.
Yeah, yeah. So the bigger resale.
Market question for Derek actually, and we kind of talked
about this at Brewfest a little bit, but as Paul mentioned, I'm
kind of circling the wagons on some more points, some add on.
Itis is happening, it seems to me, and I'm just going off of
the fantastic. Here's a little plug DVC resale
market app, but I have my search parameter.
You can put in your own search parameters.
You know, if you're looking for certain use here, certain
resort, whatever the ones that come into my like I get the
notification on my phone that says, hey, there's a such and
such contract, this many points. Oh, I made Jeff small.
Sorry, Jeff. Why did Jeff small?
Oh. Look at that.
Ow wow, ow, just over off me. We've gone off the rails again.
What was I saying? Oh, that.
Was the best it seems. To me, just based on the
contracts that I've had my eyes on, things are going fast.
No. Like I've even had some go the
same day they were listed, the ones that I were looking at.
Yeah, yeah. So that I mean things can go
like we always tell people, I mean 80%.
So we sell millions every single week. 80% of listings will sell
in 30 days or less. Some listings can sell within
legit like seconds of being listed.
I mean it, it could be seconds and then something is gone
already. Especially those, you know,
unicorns, you know, like a small beach club, a small boardwalk,
or if it's a super Unicorn, if that's an actual thing, it's
listings like under 50 points which are super rare.
So you can find like things up 25 points or 35 points like
that. But yeah, some stuff can go
super quick. So that's a good plug, Jeff,
because that's if you're looking for one of those or just get the
app, I mean, download it, it's free.
So if you're especially a member that wants to find something in
that use year that you already have because you don't want to
get a different use year and it's maybe more of a hassle, you
can set your filters, you know, and say I'm looking for a
boulder Ridge under 100 points with a February use year.
That's it. And you'll get pinged as soon as
we get it. You'll be like, Oh my God,
there's a 50 pointer at, you know, my, my use here.
I'm going to swerve over to the side of the road.
I'm going to purchase it immediately before anybody else
gets it. And you do it.
So yeah. It's a good idea.
Yeah. My, my rule of thumb is I, I
should never impulse buy, even though I do all the time.
So I'll see something coming. I'm like, all right, if that's
there tomorrow, I'm going to get.
Serious, that's a that's a good that's a good way to look at it.
I. Haven't had to buy it because
they've been going off the shelves so.
I'm buying them. The DVC Resale Market app is
available for Apple devices and Android, so just search DVC
Resale Market. The other thing that I wanted to
touch on tonight was just those average prices kind of what
we've been seeing throughout the fall months moving into kind of
2026, what we may see at the beginning of that year from
tracking this data, What we're seeing kind of through this end
of 2025 is historically what we would call kind of seasonality,
what you would typically expect this time of year.
There's a lower number of sellers and so prices are kind
of creeping upwards a little bit and we've seen that progression
I think over the course of the past two or three months.
When I wrote the report actually at the end of September, there
were only 227 active resale listings.
I think that's an important number to focus on for two
reasons. One, DVC Resale Market sells
more listings than that in a single month on a monthly basis.
So if you are looking as a seller and you're wondering how
long is it going to take for my contract to sell, it's going to
go real quick. Unless you have it priced crazy,
ridiculously high or something like that, it's going to go real
fast because, you know, I, I imagine that most of those 227
listings sold since I, since I last looked at what those
numbers were. And I, I haven't actually looked
today. I'll probably look that when I,
when I make Derek talk here in a minute or two.
But we're kind of seeing that declining inventory has been the
theme throughout this. But guess what two big things
change that as we head into this time of year 1 is that we are in
the lovely holiday shopping season.
My wife has already presented me with her holiday Christmas list
of things that she wants. And so I've met any of you are,
you know, thinking about buying for kids or significant other
what they're going to buy for, for the holidays.
You're also wondering where that money is.
And so we get some people that I think start to sell contracts
for that reason. The bigger reason comes up
January 15th, which is Dun Dun Dun annual dues, and that is a
big driving factor for many people to choose to sell.
Yeah, we can. We can curmudgeon annual dues.
But no, it's not. It's annual due.
You get one. One, Yeah, one due, according to
Derek. One due according to Derek.
Derek, give us give us a little highlight of kind of what you've
been seeing on the market. Yeah, I, I think you liken that
analogy was perfect because I've told people, you know, we can
get like 50 to 75 new listings every single week.
But like Paul said, we sell a ton.
So it's like a swimming pool that has a leak in it and we
have a hose in it at the same time.
So as soon as we sell something, we're hopefully getting more
listings. So for any seller out there
that's debating that's on the fence, don't wait, get it listed
now. And I say that just because,
because once the whispers come out of the dues and once they
hold that annual meeting in December and you know, your dues
are going to go up a little bit and then you envision, Oh my
God, I haven't really used this as much in the last year or the
last few years. That's when we get flooded with
a usual as maybe 50 to 75 new listings every single week.
Then we're talking in that December, January time frame,
you know, 75 to 100 plus every single week.
So what that means for you as a seller is do it sooner than
later just because you're going to have less competition, right?
So right now it's a supply and demand thing, you know, and some
of these resorts have have, you know, gone up and like Paul's
report, I mean, some have gone up like $15 a point, $20 a point
per SE. So if you're out there and you
own, say, I don't know, 100 and 5200 points at Saratoga Springs,
you try to sell that thing, you know which again, you'll still
sell it. But if you're looking at, you
know, the market when we've got 20 to 30, you know, 150 Saratoga
Springs buyers just have more to be able to pick from.
Because at the end of the day, these are points.
It's not a house. I tell people it's not a house
where, Oh my God, it's the perfect house.
It's right across from the school.
It's got a great backyard. I love it.
And there's only one, Oh my God, I have to have it.
It's points, so it's literally, you have other ones look from
buyers will always look at price per point.
So they're looking going, I'm looking for around 150 points at
Saratoga Springs. Oh, look, there's 15 to be able
to pick and choose from. What's the best deal that I can
possibly get? So yes, Paul, you are correct in
the fact that we sell so much. And if something lasts past 30
days, odds are that seller might have said, you know what?
I know you told me and suggested what to list it for.
But you know what, Derek? I think I'm going to list it for
like 15, $20 more per point and it's sitting there and it's
sitting there and then they'll ask and say, so is the market
slow? I'm like, no, just a reminder.
Just a reminder, you wanted to be listed 15 to $20 more.
That's why people are scooting past your listing and buying
everything up because again, we're selling millions every
single week. Why would people buy now versus
waiting? Because they want to get the
process done. That's why people buy now, you
know, because again, it's going to take 60 to 70 days to close
on that contract, then about 3-4 weeks for Disney to load the
points. So those people that want to get
started to get in the Disney system, you know, by January so
they could start booking for maybe, you know, a summer
vacation or maybe next fall or maybe next winter.
That's why you would buy sooner rather than later.
It's funny you, you kind of talk about the person that like price
is too high. We when we sold our house last
year, there was an identical house one street over from us
and it was the same exact house and it was priced $50,000 more
than our house. Same exact bill talk.
To our realtor and everything and we were just like we wanted
to sell. We were being realistic in our
listed list price. We sold within a month
essentially of listing the house and Amy just noticed the other
day. It's still for sale and they are
now under what we sold our house for like listed.
So we're talking over a year later because we sold it.
It was for sale for months before ours went on sale and we
sold in October of last year. So we're now it's been way over
a year for it. Yeah.
Wow, talking about listings though, I I looked at the the
whole number but I don't remember it but just two. 77 So
I pulled that up also. So we are already kind of seeing
that upward shift as we sit here at the end of October filming
this show. I think I said 227 yeah, is
where we were at the beginning of the month.
We're already about 50 more, so probably gonna start to continue
to see that. But we are, you know, there are
some resorts that have some very little inventory.
So Beach Club has 6 total listings.
No, I'm sorry, eight, it was 8. And then Boulder Ridge was 6 and
Grand California was like 3. So I just thought that that was
that was interesting. But yeah, we are gonna start to
see, like you said, they'll start to come up as we get
closer to the holidays and as the annual dudes start creeping
up. And I think the last thing I
kind of want to end us on is that if you are someone
listening to this show for the first time today and wondering
like how much of A price difference we're really talking
about in that direct versus resale perspective.
First, I just want to say to you, where have you been all of
my life? Please subscribe to the DVC Fan
YouTube channel and head to dvcfan.com and join us for all
of our fun antics. We have an amazing Facebook
group on facebook.com/DVC fan. You know, a lot of a lot of fun
that we have together here and a lot that you can learn.
But just to give you an idea of that direct versus resale
pricing that is always at the bottom of those average price
blogs. And I'm just going to hit on the
active selling resorts real quick.
So Disneyland Hotel out in California currently direct sale
price of 245 per point. The average price in September
was 163, so a 33% savings on that resort.
When we look here also mention Aulani, that resort has been
selling direct forever and we'll continue to 235 per point
direct, $96.00, that average price as of September, crazy to
see that below $100, a 59% savings when buying resale.
And then the big ones that are out here in Walt Disney World,
we have the Polynesian, again part of the same association.
So if you buy resale or you buy direct, you're getting access to
the entirety of the Polynesian. I know that there are a few
doubters out there still questioning whether or not
that's true, but promise you it's true. 235 per point before
incentives direct right now. 166 per point resale.
So a 29% savings by going the resale route.
We also have Riviera Resort. This goes to kind of Derek's
analogy earlier of driving that car off the lot. 235 per point
direct, 118 per point resale. So a 50% savings.
Keep in mind there are resale restrictions for some newer
resorts like Riviera Disneyland Hotel and the cabins at Fort
Wilderness, which means that if you buy that via resale, you're
only going to be able to use those points at that specific
resort. But is that worth 50% off?
A lot of people have said yes and bought them and enjoyed
them. So and last but not least, not a
true gauge as to where this is going to land yet because we
only have like two or three different contracts that have
sold. But Fort Wilderness, the cabins
at Fort Wilderness 235 before incentives right now, 135
direct, so 43% savings. And I would expect to see most
of those direct base prices increase anywhere from 5 to $10
per point at some point in January, just as ticket prices
just increased and annual pass prices increase.
Disney will always increase those prices.
Yes, there will be incentives that bring them down, but
overall they will still be more expensive than they were
yesterday. So not really a show where we're
really trying to push you in One Direction or another, whether it
be direct or resale, but really just wanted to present you with
kind of the the market options as they exist today.
So so that you can make an informed decision.
Anything else? I think that's good.
That's good. All right, Derek's going to go
change his shirt in 5 minutes because we got one more show to
do tonight. So that's going to do it for
this week's episode of the DVC Show.
We hope you enjoyed it and we will see you next Monday.
Over, move over, over. Make him small again.