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Every time I talk about 
investing, people are the most 

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excited about buying stocks 
research on new stocks and doing

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analysis on new stocks. 
And I will admit that's my 

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favorite part of investing as 
well, is buying stuff, doing 

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research on it, doing doing 
fundamental analysis, looking 

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through the metrics and through 
the story of a company, I find a

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lot of joy in doing that. 
I really enjoy the process of 

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doing analysis. 
Now, even though doing analysis 

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and buying new companies, is 
always the most motivating and 

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the most fun and exciting part 
of investing. 

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Down the road, things happen 
with companies, some of them do 

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poorly and their fundamentals 
erode over time, some of them do

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really well, some stock prices, 
go down some, go up some, go 

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down and up and recover on and 
on, and on various things happen

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with the Investments we make. 
And naturally over time, the 

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questions shift from, what 
should I buy to win? 

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Should I sell Joseph? 
I hold this stock. 

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I'm holding until. 
Should I sell this thing or 

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should? 
I hold onto it? 

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I'm holding. 
Amazon, I'm holding meta, I'm 

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holding all these different 
companies. 

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What should I do with it at this
point? 

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Should I sell? 
That is one of the most 

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important questions that any 
investor should ask themselves 

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and aside from the little 
cliches? 

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The little sayings that Warren 
Buffett says to never sell a 

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stock, every great investor does
sell stocks. 

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They seldom routinely Berkshire,
does Terry Smith, does they do 

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have portfolio turnover. 
So, the question of when to sell

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is a very important one and in 
this video, I want to give you 

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Um, insight into how I viewed 
this subject, when I'm looking 

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through my portfolio. 
I want to show you the biggest 

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things I look at to determine 
whether or not. 

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I continue to hold a stock or if
I decide to sell it. 

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So let's go ahead and jump in 
and I'll give you multiple 

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examples. 
The first one that I want to 

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start with is Netflix. 
Now, with every company, I have 

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a little different thesis of why
I stay invested in the company, 

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it might be a different part of 
their moat, or their growth 

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thesis. 
Every company has a story and 

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they're all different with 
Netflix, the story of this 

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company and the reason that I 
invested in it to begin with and

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I remain invested in it today is
because I believe that it is New

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Media, the new version of media 
that is at scale, that is going 

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to be and is already highly 
profitable, and is already 

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circumvented and subjugated old 
media. 

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It's already taken the crown 
from old media and the economics

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from old media. 
And I believe that, Alex is a bi

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and a hold as long as it 
maintains its position of being 

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the king of streaming and the 
King of New Media, as soon as it

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falters and it falls behind 
other companies, they take the 

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crown and they run away with the
economics. 

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That's when I would be selling 
out of Netflix. 

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If I saw weakening in its 
position, if I saw other 

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companies, leapfrogging it in 
economics. 

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So that's the main gauge that I 
use for this company. 

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When determining when to buy and
sell it. 

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Now, valuation plays a role in 
it, it does play a role, but the

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bigger determining factor for 
me. 

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Is the fundamentals, the 
intrinsic value drivers of the 

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company. 
If the main profit and intrinsic

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value, driver of the company is 
moving in a positive direction, 

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I'll most likely hold it. 
If the profit drivers and 

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intrinsic value direction of the
company is moving towards. 

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The - I'll likely sell it. 
Those are the biggest 

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determining factors. 
So let's go ahead and take a 

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look. 
And a quick update on Netflix. 

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We have an article here that I 
want to reference. 

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It gives a concise update on the
media streaming world right now 

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and it Compares Legacy Media. 
With New Media, the first half 

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of 2023 has been a colossal 
disappointment for media 

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Executives. 
Who wanted this year to be the 

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rebound from a terrible 2022. 
All these companies like Disney 

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weren't immediate Discovery 
Paramount. 

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Global had their valuations cut 
in half and the only one that 

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seems to be doing really well 
right now is Netflix investors 

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have once again become excited 
by Netflix's future prospects as

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its Crackdown on password 
sharing potentially leading to 

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tens of millions of new signups 
Netflix shares have surged. 

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The past five months outpacing, 
the S&P 500. 

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Meanwhile, the Legacy players 
can't get out of their own way. 

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It's been a bumpy ride for 
Disney Executives, Bob Iger, 

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since you returned to lead the 
company late. 

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Last year. 
Disney recently finished laying 

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off 7,000 employees Chief 
Financial Officer, Kristine 

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McCarthy stepped down last week.
The company is pulling 

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programming from its streaming 
services to save money. 

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It's animation. 
Business is in a major route 

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with its latest Pixar movie 
Elemental recording the lowest 

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opening weekend. 
Gross for the So since the 

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original Toy Story which 
premiered in 1995 shares have 

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struggled in the past five 
months, Disney continues to go 

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down. 
It's down to $88. 

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I build on Disney at 115 at a 
smaller position, in my other 

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portfolio. 
I took that opportunity to get 

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out at a smaller loss with it 
but this one's just been a 

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struggle and this is Disney 
getting crushed by Netflix an 

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interesting thing to look at 
here, One thing the to look at 

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with this is the size of the 
companies. 

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Now Disney is a 162 billion 
dollar company 16 to Netflix, 

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has now surpassed Disney in 
market cap size to 188 billion 

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and that is all streaming, just 
streaming for Netflix. 

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While Disney has cruises and 
Broadway's and blockbuster 

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movies and parks and Resorts all
of that put together is smaller 

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than Now, just as a streaming 
company, we continue on Warner 

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Bros Discovery is laying off 
more employees after cutting, 

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thousands of jobs last year as 
it tries to boost free cash 

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flow, chief executive officer 
David, zasloff threw his weight 

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behind the CNN CEO. 
Last year, only to fire him a 

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month after a series of internal
errors with the employees and 

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external mistakes with 
programming. 

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Then there's a company's movie 
cable and streaming businesses. 

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DC Studios co-chief, James Gunn 
and zasloff boat trumpeted, The 

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Flash as one of The greatest 
superhero movies ever made, but 

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the film flamed out of the box 
office with mediocre reviews, 

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this week is a staff held an 
emergency call with director 

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Steven Spielberg Martin Scorsese
and Paul Thomas Anderson to 

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convey his commitment to Classic
Movies as he lay off. 

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Employees at the cable network 
HBO. 

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Max is now Max, but it hasn't 
stopped the service from 

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removing programming from 
customers. 

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And while Warner Brothers 
discoveries having this many 

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internal problems, it's a 
complete disaster internally. 

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We also have reports It's that 
Warner Brothers discoveries in 

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talks, for a programming deal, 
with Netflix to put HBO content 

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on Netflix. 
Now, if there isn't a concession

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that you've lost the streaming 
or bigger than licensing, your 

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hpl content that you've 
literally, never licensed to 

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anyone else like this on 
Netflix. 

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I don't know what else is. 
This is the biggest sign that 

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Netflix has bullied and beat up.
HBO Netflix has become HBO 

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faster than HBO could become 
Netflix. 

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We go on and we get to Paramount
Paramount, Global cut its 

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dividend last quarter. 
As a streaming loss is peaked 

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this year and week advertising 
Market exacerbates. 

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A terminally ill cable network, 
business, Wells. 

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Fargo released an analyst note 
Friday saying that the bull case

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and the bear case for the 
company where the same selling 

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the thing for parts, when Warren
Buffett was asked about the 

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company and the only thing that 
he could say about Paramount was

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that streaming is not a great 
business. 

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And as far as Wells Fargo's 
saying that, Is a good 

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acquisition Target that they're 
going to sell to a different 

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company. 
I'm sure there's lots of 

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companies that would love their 
content. 

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They have an incredible Library.
Paramount, has a lot of good 

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content, but who's going to buy 
it? 

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It'd be tough to buy Paramount 
when they have that terminally 

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ill Legacy Cable business. 
Everybody wants the content but 

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they don't want the Legacy Cable
business and those two go hand 

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in hand. 
So this would be a very 

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difficult by for any company in 
the market right now. 

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Paramount Global is down 75%. 22
percent in the past five years 

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it's being completely destroyed 
along with these other streaming

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companies that is the Legacy 
landscape. 

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Right now, we have Disney down 
over the past five years, almost

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flat over the past, nine years, 
almost entire decade gone for 

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Disney investors. 
We have Paramount Global in the 

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red, over the past five years, 
we have Warner Brothers, 

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Discovery down, big over the 
past five years. 

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All of these companies 
struggling to become profitable,

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all of them, with dying Legacy 
cable businesses, Even the giant

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Comcast is underperforming 
dramatically over the past five 

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years. 
And the only reason that it's in

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the green at all, is because of 
its internet business, not its 

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media properties. 
We have all of this going on and

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then we have another Factor. 
That's also going to cause these

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companies even more grief. 
All of this is happening with an

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extended Hollywood writers 
strike going on. 

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In the background this week may 
bring even more bad news film 

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and TV actors are set to join a 
writer's strike, unless they 

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reach a deal with Hollywood 
Studios by Friday. 

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If the beneficiary of Hollywood 
work shutdowns will likely be 

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YouTube, Tick-Tock and Netflix, 
which continues to churn out 

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International content and is 
unaffected by the strike. 

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So, while all these companies 
are already struggling, there's 

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a writer strike, giving an 
advantage to YouTubers tick 

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stalkers that don't have a lot 
of riders or companies like 

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Netflix, which are 
internationally Diversified with

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their production. 
Netflix has far more overseas 

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production of content than any 
of these Legacy corporations. 

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So we have a situation right 
now. 

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Where I look at my holding a 
Netflix and I look at the media 

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landscape and I determine which 
companies are losing and 

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winning. 
I asked myself the question. 

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Why am I not selling Netflix 
right now? 

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Well, why would I, why would I 
want to sell Netflix right now? 

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That is my question because it 
trades at a little bit higher of

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a PE ratio. 
That's not going to be a big 

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factor in the long run. 
The big factor in whether 

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Netflix becomes a massive 
Corporation, much bigger than it

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is today or whether it has 
subpar returns is not whether 

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it's a few PE ratios higher than
another company. 

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It's whether or not it is the 
long-term winner in media and 

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able to monetize. 
Its massive user base. 

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Right now, I think directionally
that answer to that question is,

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yes? 
So right now I'm holding the 

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company. 
So simply put that's how I do 

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the analysis. 
I look at the direction. 

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These companies are going. 
If the moat is getting stronger,

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I hold the company. 
If the intrinsic value drivers 

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of the company are still intact.
I hold the company. 

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I will. 
Our valuation to some degree. 

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If the company gets widely 
overvalued, I'll look at 

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trimming the position or taking 
gains. 

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But most of my analysis, when I 
have large concentrated 

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positions is on the fundamental 
developments of the company. 

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The next one that I look at 
right now is Google, there's an 

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analyst, no on Google recently 
from a bank downgrading, the 

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stock saying it's a cell because
they're not going to properly 

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monetize AI. 
These are nonsense noise, that 

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these analysts come up with 
Google still has incredible 

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properties. 
They I'll absorb most of the 

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advertising Market, they still 
have YouTube, which is New 

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Media. 
YouTube is beating out Legacy 

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Media, all the properties and 
assets of Google are incredibly 

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profitable, and the company's 
intrinsic value, drivers are 

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still intact and they have 
multiple growth drivers like the

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cloud business as well. 
So these companies in terms of 

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their intrinsic value drivers, I
still think they're headed in 

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the right direction. 
They are not as sell to me. 

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I can look at other pieces of 
data analysis. 

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Here is a chart from Alex Morris
on the science of hitting and he

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shared a chart of the overall 
streaming Time by company. 

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So we have all the companies 
here Netflix is the very bottom 

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one. 
We have YouTube Hulu Prime video

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Disney plus and other streaming.
YouTube and Netflix alone makeup

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for over half of the shared 
proportion of Allah streaming 

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and they continue to maintain, 
or gain in their market share. 

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So, Netflix and Google are 
examples of two companies that 

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I've chosen not to sell because 
of the main factors that the 

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fundamentals and akley the 
intrinsic value drivers of the 

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company. 
The core businesses are still 

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intact still profitable and 
they're growing their 

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directionally headed in the 
right direction. 

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The moats overall, the 
competitive advantage of these 

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companies have I believe are 
still intact and if not getting 

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wider. 
So directionally fundamentally 

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the company's going in the right
direction, I continue to hold 

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both of those companies. 
Now, the other example, a 

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company that I have sold out of 
as an example of one that I 

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chose to sell was a hard one to 
sell. 

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Because it seems like a great 
company on the surface, but I 

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sought out of it, Disney was one
that I sold about. 

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I don't know, four or five 
months ago, I sold it at 1:15. 

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And the reason that I sold 
Disney, even though I like the 

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company into assets, it owns is.
I believe just the opposite was 

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happening with this company. 
The intrinsic value drivers of 

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the company. 
The IP they had with Marvel and 

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lucasfilm, I believe it's weaker
today than it was five years 

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ago. 
Marvel, lucasfilm all these 

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assets. 
They own our Having less profits

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and less box office sales today 
than they were in their Heyday 

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five years ago. 
A lot of people have Marvel 

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fatigue, they've exhausted this 
content to a huge extent. 

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So the IP I believe is getting 
weaker. 

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The moat is also getting more 
narrow. 

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As Walt Disney has people 
competing with them on every 

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front, big Tech with sports and 
ESPN. 

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There's also new parks from 
Nintendo, there's more 

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Blockbuster films. 
There's more kid, animated 

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movies on, every single part 
that they compete in. 

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They have Competition. 
So both their intrinsic value 

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drivers and the mode of the 
company I believe are getting 

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compressed and weakened over 
time and overall, I believe that

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Disney was becoming less 
predictable. 

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It may still do great. 
The company might go from 80 to 

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150, I don't know. 
The problem is, this company 

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became unpredictable to me. 
I did not know what direction it

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was going to go, and I don't 
like holding companies where I 

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don't feel confident in the 
overall direction, the 

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fundamentals are going the 
revenue. 

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Seems predictable, but a lot of 
this is manufactured Revenue, 

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like buying things like 21st 
Century, Fox the free cash flows

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are completely unpredictable. 
The company had free cash flows 

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fall over the past couple of 
years and never recover, not 

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even close to where it was in 
2018. 

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And then the stock base comp is 
going up while the free cash, 

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flows are at an all-time low. 
So, expenses are going up, free 

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cash flow going down, we can 
look at the earnings and it's 

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the same thing. 
The company is, um, Predictable,

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10 me to where I don't know if 
or when it will ever get back to

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where it was. 
It's certainly not going to 

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return to this trajectory 
anytime soon. 

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So, when I'm asked, the question
of when to sell, and when to 

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buy, when to buy a company, for 
me is pretty simple. 

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When I found a good quality, 
compounder that has phenomenal 

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00:14:45,500 --> 00:14:47,400
fundamentals. 
Everything's moving in the right

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00:14:47,400 --> 00:14:50,600
direction for it, and I can buy 
it at a reasonable price today, 

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00:14:50,900 --> 00:14:53,200
and it's a better opportunity 
than other companies in my 

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portfolio. 
That's when I buy a company in 

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many cases, The companies I buy 
are already in my portfolio, 

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when I sell a company, it's just
the opposite, it's becoming less

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predictable. 
The intrinsic value drivers of 

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the company, the economics are 
in question, the mode of the 

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companies being invaded by 
competitors and the Outlook is 

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00:15:13,500 --> 00:15:16,600
murky, it looks unclear and you 
don't know what direction, it's 

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00:15:16,600 --> 00:15:20,300
going rather than just hoping 
and praying the company does 

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00:15:20,300 --> 00:15:22,700
good. 
I rather just take the Lost, 

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take the money out of the 
company and move on to one that 

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I have a higher degree of 
confidence. 

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That it will do well and not 
every case, am I going to get 

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this, right? 
And some cases, I'm going to 

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00:15:31,000 --> 00:15:33,500
make the wrong move and sell 
their own company or by their 

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00:15:33,500 --> 00:15:36,100
own company. 
But I think doing it this way 

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and focusing on the fundamental 
direction of the company is by 

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far the best way to do it. 
And I think that overall I'll 

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make more right decisions, the 
wrong decisions. 

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So that's my thoughts overall on
when to sell I hope that you 

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thought this video was a little 
bit informative. 

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May be helpful. 
Let me know what you think. 

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See you in the next one.