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Welcome back everyone. 
We have a lot to get to in this 

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episode. 
First of all, we have the 

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breaking news. 
This is something that I think 

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is breaking news but not 
surprising News until just 

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announced that they're slashing 
their dividend by over 65 

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percent. 
So this is a massive dividend / 

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from a company that has a huge 
history of paying a growing 

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dividend over Decades of time. 
Now this is news in and of 

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itself and this is disappointing
and shocking to many investors. 

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But I think what's more 
disappointing than the fact that

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they slash the dividend, is the 
fact that they were dishonest, 

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in my opinion. 
And I will show evidence to 

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support this opinion. 
I think Intel and specifically 

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the CEO Pat gelsinger was 
incredibly dishonest 

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disingenuous and deceiving. 
And the way that he talked about

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Intel's dividend not even one 
month ago, one month ago. 

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He spoke about the dividend 
we're going to look back and 

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play the clip. 
And see what you think. 

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Because in my opinion, I can't 
stand this type of thing, the 

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way, that these type of 
companies and their CEOs, talk 

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to investors and say one thing 
and then quickly do the other, I

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think needs to be called out. 
So I'm going to be calling it 

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out. 
In this video, we're going to be

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looking at the tape, replaying 
it and going over it and we'll 

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see if you agree with me. 
Now, the other piece of news, we

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had was a company, that's very 
important to me because it's a 

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massive holding of mine. 
Texas Roadhouse, just reported 

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earnings, and they missed on the
top line and they missed. 

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On the bottom line. 
And I'll give you my updated 

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opinion on this company because 
right now it is a forty three 

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thousand dollar holding. 
So I'll be going over and 

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letting you know whether or not 
I'm taking gains or if I'm 

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letting this company run. 
Now we also have some news to 

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get to regarding meta. 
They just had breaking news that

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they're announcing even more job
Cuts after laying off 11,000 

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employees and other companies, 
like Amazon are also doing some 

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moves that are upsetting a lot 
of employees asking them to 

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return back to the This after 
seeing they could previously 

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work from home, I think this is 
a pretense of Amazon doing more 

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layoffs, so we'll be discussing 
that as well. 

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And then finally, we have the 
ongoing discussion of whether or

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not the FED is going to Pivot 
Jeremy. 

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Siegel is someone who has 
staunchly said that he thinks 

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that interest rates are coming 
down this year and there's other

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commentators, like, David 
Rubenstein, that are saying that

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the FED pivot is nowhere to be 
found and the FED is not going 

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to lower interest rates in 2023.
So, while all of this discussion

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is going on, I'll be explaining 
NG why it's so important. 

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So we have a lot to get to a lot
to cover in this episode before 

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we start off, after give a quick
shout-out to today's sponsor of 

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All right, now, let's go ahead 

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and Jump Right In what you're 
looking at here is a passive 

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income portfolio. 
If you're new to the channel, 

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which we've had many new 
members, I track this portfolio 

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every single week with 
transparency. 

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So you get to see my returns or 
my losses. 

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You get to see my buys and my 
cells, and you get to see how 

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the portfolio evolves and 
changes over time. 

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All of it is shared up front on 
this YouTube channel. 

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Now, before we jump into my 
portfolio and I go over any 

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changes, Making, I want to go to
the headline news of the day, 

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which is the Intel just slash 
their dividend by 65 percent. 

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So, a massive dividend cut and 
this is one of the last 

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redeeming things about until 
yes, the company's going through

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struggles. 
Yes, the company has many 

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competitors and it's losing 
market, share. 

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The company also has many 
operational risks, the company. 

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Recently, slashed a lot of the 
pay for both the executives and 

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the employees, the company has 
declining free cash flows. 

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It's going in the wrong 
direction, operationally but one

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of the things that Intel had was
that nice juicy 5% dividend 

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yield, it would pay you to wait.
You could simply take your 

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dividend and wait out this storm
and finally until is now saying 

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we're not even going to pay you 
to wait, at least not as much. 

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We're cutting down our dividend 
by over half. 

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Now, I understand that when a 
company is going through, 

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operational challenges, like 
Intel, it might be prudent. 

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To cut the dividend in some 
cases. 

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This is actually a positive 
thing. 

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It means the company's looking 
out for its long-term future and

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this is ultimately a capital, 
allocation decision where the 

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company sing, We need the cash, 
we no longer can return this 

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cash back to shareholders and 
that's fine. 

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I have no problem with Intel 
slashing the dividend what I do.

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Have a problem with is deception
is going on TV and being 

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deceiving with your intense and 
what you actually plan on doing 

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what I want to do is go back to 
January 27th. 

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This was the day, the L had 
their earnings report and Pat 

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the CEO of Intel went on to CNBC
the try to put a happy face on 

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the earnings report to try to 
highlight the bright side, but 

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one of the things that was 
brought up in this is again, 

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less than one month ago was the 
dividend, he was pressed on 

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whether or not the dividend was 
going to remain or whether it 

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was going to be slashed, I got 
to press you on the dividend 

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because I know a lot of folks 
want to know about this. 

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Looks like you did clear the 
deck in a way with your guidance

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last night. 
Why didn't you just Say that you

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might need to cut the dividend 
instead of changing the language

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around it. 
Well, you know, we're always 

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going to look at the capital 
allocation priorities of the 

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company you know we should be a 
dividend payer and as Dave said 

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on the call last night, you 
know, we're committed to the 

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dividend and to a very 
competitive dividend position 

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but amongst all of the capital 
requirements. 

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We look at that very carefully 
over time and per the last 

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conversation, strategic capital.
Capital offsets near term 

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adjustments, as well as the 
continuing healthy dividend that

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we present to our shareholders. 
He did a lot of that CEO, 

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mumbo-jumbo? 
If you didn't, really understand

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what he said, or if it seemed 
like you said a lot without 

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saying, much at all. 
That's because he did. 

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He didn't actually answer the 
question directly. 

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That's my first take away. 
He's trying to obfuscate the 

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issue and not really give an 
answer at all. 

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But what he said there is that 
the dividend is healthy. 

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Did you catch that? 
He literally referred to the 

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Dividend as being healthy, as 
well as the continuing healthy 

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dividend. 
That we now, I don't know about 

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you, but when I co refers to a 
dividend as being healthy, you 

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basically take that to mean that
it's not going to be cut by over

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65 percent within a one month, 
period. 

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That's what a healthy dividend 
is. 

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It's one where you're looking at
the future of the company. 

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You're looking at, its current 
Financial State. 

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And from what everything you see
right now, you would have no 

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reason to chop the dividend in 
half, but Harry is less than 

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Thirty days ago, referring to 
the dividend as healthy. 

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And then without any changes in 
the company over this time 

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period without any unforeseen 
events, he goes back against his

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word and since this answer was 
so unclear to begin with he gets

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pressed even further and he 
doubles down right. 

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I guess what does that healthy 
dividend mean? 

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Pat you mentioned earlier that 
you wanted to be transparent. 

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So are the folks that took that 
wording competitive dividend, 

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you just said that again, can 
they, are they wrong to 

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interpret that as a potential 
cut? 

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The host here is doing a 
fantastic job saying, you want 

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to be transparent, what is this 
healthy dividend mean? 

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And listen to how he pushes 
back. 

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Well, you know, we just 
reaffirmed our dividend payment 

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for this last quarter and we did
that on the earnings call. 

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Yesterday, obviously, important,
topic, that we'll continue 

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discussing in the meet, at 
leadership team and with the 

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board of directors, but we do 
believe this, competitive 

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healthy dividend, you know, 
something a company of our size.

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Scale should be presenting to 
our shareholders. 

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He says healthy another two 
times, so he's referred to the 

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dividend as healthy three 
different times on January 27th 

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of this year, less than 30 days 
ago. 

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And here we have news that that 
healthy dividend is being cut by

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65%. 
Now I don't know what you would 

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quantify as a lie, but in my 
book, this is pretty close the 

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lying. 
You didn't just change his mind.

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What he described on tv, less 
than a month ago, was not 

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accurate the dividend. 
Not healthy. 

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Anyone that looked at the 
financials after last quarter 

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knew that the dividend wasn't 
healthy. 

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And this isn't me saying this in
hindsight, in fact, I came out 

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00:09:08,900 --> 00:09:13,500
with a patreon exclusive 
episode, January 27th, the same 

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00:09:13,500 --> 00:09:17,500
exact day that this CEO went on 
to CNBC and described his 

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dividend as healthy three 
separate times. 

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I made an exclusive episode that
same day saying this. 

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They might not even be able to 
pay their divin. 

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I think there's a good chance by
the end of this year, they'll 

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cut the dividend. 
I really, I think there's a 

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decent chance of that. 
The CEO went on to CNBC and 

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tried to explain himself. 
He, he's trying to put a happy 

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face on it, but the the problems
are brutal. 

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So this wasn't something that 
was difficult to see anyone 

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looking at the financials knows 
that this dividend wasn't 

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healthy, but to the unwitting 
investor that's listening to the

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executives of the company. 
Give a report about how the 

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company's doing. 
I think they were lied to and 

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that's very frustrating if 
you're an Intel investor. 

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00:09:59,300 --> 00:10:01,600
Now in, Of what you do in this 
situation. 

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00:10:01,900 --> 00:10:05,500
This is a situation that's very 
difficult Intel's down 58 

200
00:10:05,500 --> 00:10:09,100
percent over the past two years.
The company has been a massive 

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00:10:09,100 --> 00:10:11,600
value trap. 
This is a type of company that 

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00:10:11,600 --> 00:10:16,000
I've mentioned that I've avoided
many times because I consider to

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have many operational risks that
other Industries, don't have 

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00:10:20,400 --> 00:10:23,600
Intel's, a company that requires
a tremendous amount of capex, 

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every single year, they're 
dumping billions and billions of

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00:10:27,400 --> 00:10:30,000
dollars in the capex. 
The numbers are extremely Mmmmm.

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Not only do they have Capital 
expenditures, they have research

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00:10:33,100 --> 00:10:35,900
and development. 
They have to hire top talent to 

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compete with Nvidia, AMD and all
the other well-capitalized, 

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00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:42,400
competitors that eats into an 
enormous amount of their 

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00:10:42,400 --> 00:10:45,400
revenue. 
And all of this has a risk, 

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00:10:45,500 --> 00:10:48,000
maybe they do a lot of research 
and development and they're 

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00:10:48,000 --> 00:10:51,600
still in second place. 
Maybe they do a lot of capex for

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00:10:51,600 --> 00:10:54,100
contracts that don't really work
out in the future. 

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00:10:54,400 --> 00:10:57,200
All of this expense has risk and
this is a company where the 

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risks are not paying off the 
revenues down. 

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Where it was ten years ago, it's
had an incredible decline over 

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00:11:03,600 --> 00:11:07,000
the past year, the free cash 
flows - over the past year and 

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00:11:07,000 --> 00:11:09,400
the dividend, the one bright 
spot of the companies now being 

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00:11:09,400 --> 00:11:12,900
cut down to 12 cents. 
So on this chart, the dividends 

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00:11:12,900 --> 00:11:16,400
going to go down to right around
there that will be their next 

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00:11:16,400 --> 00:11:18,900
dividend. 
Payment doesn't look like such a

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00:11:18,900 --> 00:11:22,600
fun company to be invested in 
any more in terms of what to do 

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right now. 
It's difficult to say maybe the 

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00:11:25,500 --> 00:11:28,100
worst is already priced in. 
I think that's the best that you

226
00:11:28,100 --> 00:11:31,500
can hope for it's not. 
Selling off dramatically after 

227
00:11:31,500 --> 00:11:33,200
this news, which I think is a 
good thing. 

228
00:11:33,600 --> 00:11:36,700
But in my opinion, I still 
consider these type of companies

229
00:11:36,800 --> 00:11:38,800
too risky. 
So as far as I'm concerned, I'm 

230
00:11:38,800 --> 00:11:41,000
not going to be adding Intel to 
the portfolio. 

231
00:11:41,000 --> 00:11:44,000
Anytime soon, I don't find 
anything about this company 

232
00:11:44,000 --> 00:11:47,800
attractive and I especially do 
not invest in companies where 

233
00:11:47,800 --> 00:11:51,600
the CEOs are not transparent and
they're not forthcoming to 

234
00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:53,400
investors about their 
intentions. 

235
00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:57,000
To me, that is a huge red flag. 
Now, moving on, there is one 

236
00:11:57,000 --> 00:12:00,300
company in my portfolio that 
just recently reported Earnings 

237
00:12:00,400 --> 00:12:02,400
everybody knows about it. 
That's been following my 

238
00:12:02,400 --> 00:12:04,600
channel. 
I've been talking about this 

239
00:12:04,600 --> 00:12:06,700
stock regularly over the past 
year. 

240
00:12:07,000 --> 00:12:10,100
It is Texas, Roadhouse. 
The company restaurant has been 

241
00:12:10,100 --> 00:12:13,800
doing very well operationally. 
It's performed excellently. 

242
00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:16,400
They've grown sales, they've 
grown their net income. 

243
00:12:16,400 --> 00:12:19,400
They've grown free cash flow. 
They've opened up more locations

244
00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:22,900
and the performance of the 
company has matched the 

245
00:12:22,900 --> 00:12:26,100
performance of the stock. 
It's broadly out performed, the 

246
00:12:26,100 --> 00:12:28,800
rest of the market. 
And right now I'm up around 

247
00:12:28,800 --> 00:12:32,100
9,000 $500. 
Now, Texas Roadhouse recently 

248
00:12:32,100 --> 00:12:36,000
released their last earnings 
report of Q4 of 2022, and it was

249
00:12:36,000 --> 00:12:39,800
a top and bottom miss. 
That is the headline news during

250
00:12:39,800 --> 00:12:44,000
the earnings report and that 
caused an immediate 5% sell-off 

251
00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:46,700
in the stock. 
So, after hours, it was dumped 

252
00:12:46,800 --> 00:12:50,800
five or six percent and then the
very next morning it was up six 

253
00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:53,400
percent. 
So it was this one time after 

254
00:12:53,400 --> 00:12:56,800
hours, dip, that was immediately
bought up and now it's back up 

255
00:12:56,800 --> 00:13:00,200
to almost all time highs. 
Now I'm not surprised Was bought

256
00:13:00,200 --> 00:13:03,100
up immediately after the 
sell-off because this earnings 

257
00:13:03,100 --> 00:13:05,900
report even though on the 
surface, it was a top and bottom

258
00:13:05,900 --> 00:13:08,200
line Miss. 
I don't think it was bad at all.

259
00:13:08,200 --> 00:13:11,500
I think overall it was a very 
good earnings report if we look 

260
00:13:11,500 --> 00:13:14,100
at what Texas Roadhouse does 
here in their earnings report, 

261
00:13:14,100 --> 00:13:17,800
the first thing they do is they 
highlight a twenty percent 

262
00:13:17,800 --> 00:13:20,700
dividend increase. 
Keep in mind, Home Depot, just 

263
00:13:20,700 --> 00:13:24,900
increased, there's by 10% people
call that a monstrous dividend 

264
00:13:24,900 --> 00:13:29,100
increase, this is 20%. 
This is a monstrous dividend 

265
00:13:29,100 --> 00:13:31,600
increase. 
This is at three to four times, 

266
00:13:31,600 --> 00:13:35,500
the average of the dividend 
payers in the S&P 500, and how 

267
00:13:35,500 --> 00:13:37,300
is Texas Roadhouse able to do 
this. 

268
00:13:37,800 --> 00:13:40,400
They're able to do this because 
their cash flows are growing 

269
00:13:40,600 --> 00:13:44,500
around 15 to 20 percent per year
over the past 10 years. 

270
00:13:44,500 --> 00:13:48,100
They've raised a dividend by 
over 16 percent per year. 

271
00:13:48,300 --> 00:13:51,700
So I'm incredibly happy to see 
this company continue to reward.

272
00:13:51,700 --> 00:13:55,300
Its shareholders, not only is 
this extra cash and this makes 

273
00:13:55,300 --> 00:13:57,200
it. 
So every quarter, I'm earning 

274
00:13:57,200 --> 00:14:01,100
$225 in dividends, I think. 
Bigger thing that I like about 

275
00:14:01,100 --> 00:14:04,400
this is that it shows the 
company is still a company 

276
00:14:04,400 --> 00:14:07,600
centered around rewarding the 
investor, they actually care 

277
00:14:07,600 --> 00:14:10,500
about the investor. 
They don't use this money to go 

278
00:14:10,500 --> 00:14:14,000
off and do little pet projects, 
do little things like rewarding 

279
00:14:14,000 --> 00:14:18,000
the CEOs with extravagantly, 
huge compensation packages, 

280
00:14:18,300 --> 00:14:20,700
know, they direct that money 
back to the shareholders that 

281
00:14:20,700 --> 00:14:23,300
have kept with them. 
So I love the see this news from

282
00:14:23,300 --> 00:14:26,000
Texas Roadhouse. 
What else do I like to see the 

283
00:14:26,000 --> 00:14:29,300
company grew total revenues by 
12%, their earnings per share 

284
00:14:29,300 --> 00:14:34,300
group. 
By 17.4% 17% growth is fast. 12 

285
00:14:34,300 --> 00:14:37,200
percent Revenue growth is fast, 
operationally the company's 

286
00:14:37,200 --> 00:14:39,500
doing excellent. 
Comparable, restaurant sales are

287
00:14:39,500 --> 00:14:43,400
up 7% year-over-year the average
weekly sales of the restaurants 

288
00:14:43,400 --> 00:14:47,400
are 130,000 last year. 
It was 120 restaurant. 

289
00:14:47,400 --> 00:14:51,100
Margins are down a little bit 
and this is the reason that they

290
00:14:51,100 --> 00:14:54,600
missed their earnings report, 
but this is not a structural 

291
00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:56,700
issue with the company. 
This has nothing to do with 

292
00:14:56,700 --> 00:14:59,400
their fundamentals. 
This is all because of commodity

293
00:14:59,400 --> 00:15:03,100
and Action and beef prices, 
which Texas Roadhouse has said 

294
00:15:03,300 --> 00:15:06,200
that this has happened, many 
times throughout their history 

295
00:15:06,500 --> 00:15:09,900
and they don't Factor it into 
their decisions at all, because 

296
00:15:09,900 --> 00:15:14,800
commodity prices go up and they 
go down beef prices, go up, and 

297
00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:17,800
they go down. 
And so since this is not a 

298
00:15:17,800 --> 00:15:21,000
structural issue with a company 
or its operations, they don't 

299
00:15:21,000 --> 00:15:24,300
Factor it in, they do factor in 
labor inflation. 

300
00:15:24,500 --> 00:15:26,900
So that is a structural 
challenge of the company and 

301
00:15:26,900 --> 00:15:29,600
they factor that in to their 
pricing, the earnings per share.

302
00:15:29,700 --> 00:15:31,600
There are up a lot and then they
opened up. 

303
00:15:31,700 --> 00:15:33,900
Can new company restaurants in 
the quarter. 

304
00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:37,500
They even updated us on the 2023
Outlook. 

305
00:15:37,500 --> 00:15:39,700
And one of the interesting 
things that this company pointed

306
00:15:39,700 --> 00:15:44,200
out sales of already increased 
by 15.8 percent this year over 

307
00:15:44,200 --> 00:15:49,100
last year 15.8% already, they 
were asked on the earnings call 

308
00:15:49,300 --> 00:15:52,200
why our sales increasing so much
at your restaurants. 

309
00:15:52,700 --> 00:15:55,200
And they basically said, we 
don't know, we're just 

310
00:15:55,200 --> 00:15:58,100
executing, well, we serve good 
food, we have good prices and 

311
00:15:58,100 --> 00:16:00,800
sales continue to go up. 
But they can't really nail it. 

312
00:16:00,800 --> 00:16:04,600
Down to any one thing sales, 
continue to go up like crazy. 

313
00:16:05,000 --> 00:16:09,600
The company also expects to open
up another 25 to 30 locations, 

314
00:16:09,700 --> 00:16:12,300
some more restaurants, and more 
sales per restaurant. 

315
00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:14,800
So, as of right now, even though
this company has done really 

316
00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:19,200
well, I have no reason to lock 
in gains or be concerned about 

317
00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:22,600
losing my gains that I have. 
I think if anything this company

318
00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:25,300
will continue to compound while 
into the future. 

319
00:16:25,700 --> 00:16:29,100
So as of now, I'm not selling a 
single share and in terms of my 

320
00:16:29,100 --> 00:16:31,700
other hole Earnings. 
I'm not doing any selling as 

321
00:16:31,700 --> 00:16:35,300
well over the past week since my
last video, I haven't done any 

322
00:16:35,300 --> 00:16:36,800
sales. 
I'm just hanging on to my 

323
00:16:36,800 --> 00:16:40,600
Compounders and adding to the 
positions that drop the most. 

324
00:16:40,700 --> 00:16:44,200
For example, the company that I 
recently purchased just a bit 

325
00:16:44,200 --> 00:16:47,800
more of was Union Pacific. 
It's down a little bit around, 

326
00:16:47,800 --> 00:16:51,600
10% below my cost basis. 
And as this company continues to

327
00:16:51,600 --> 00:16:54,400
sell off, I'll just add slightly
more to the position. 

328
00:16:54,500 --> 00:16:56,800
Now, moving on, we have a rumor 
that was released today by The 

329
00:16:56,800 --> 00:16:59,500
Washington Post that meta is 
going to be doing. 

330
00:16:59,700 --> 00:17:02,700
Another round of job Cuts, if 
you missed the first round, they

331
00:17:02,700 --> 00:17:06,200
laid off 11,000 employees. 
And now there's rumors. 

332
00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:08,800
There's tweets that have 
confirmed that they're planning 

333
00:17:08,800 --> 00:17:11,700
on doing another round of 
layoffs, in my opinion. 

334
00:17:11,700 --> 00:17:14,599
I think these rumors are true. 
I think that meta will lay off 

335
00:17:14,599 --> 00:17:16,500
more employees. 
The reason why is because 

336
00:17:16,500 --> 00:17:18,800
they've been hinting at this 
over and over again. 

337
00:17:19,099 --> 00:17:21,700
The first thing that they did 
was they gave a lot of employees

338
00:17:21,800 --> 00:17:25,300
very poor performance reviews 
which if they're doing that, 

339
00:17:25,300 --> 00:17:28,800
they're kind of saying look, 
you're going to be in the 

340
00:17:28,800 --> 00:17:31,300
crosshairs. 
For future layoffs, giving a 

341
00:17:31,300 --> 00:17:33,800
bunch of people poor performance
reviews and then Mark 

342
00:17:33,800 --> 00:17:36,500
Zuckerberg. 
Also on his social media said 

343
00:17:36,700 --> 00:17:39,900
that this is going to be the 
year of efficiency for meta. 

344
00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:42,900
And so I do think there's going 
to be more layoffs with meta, 

345
00:17:42,900 --> 00:17:45,600
but I don't think that meta is 
going to be the only big tech 

346
00:17:45,600 --> 00:17:48,500
company that announces another 
round of layoffs. 

347
00:17:48,800 --> 00:17:51,700
I think we're going to see the 
same thing from Google and I 

348
00:17:51,700 --> 00:17:54,400
think we're going to see the 
same thing from Amazon, all 

349
00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:57,700
three of these companies over 
hired to a dramatic extent. 

350
00:17:57,700 --> 00:17:59,500
And now they're in a tough 
situation of need. 

351
00:17:59,700 --> 00:18:03,100
Get rid of employees while also 
not crushing morale. 

352
00:18:03,500 --> 00:18:07,000
Amazon recently, just said that,
there are now mandating that 

353
00:18:07,000 --> 00:18:09,400
employees come in for three days
per week. 

354
00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:12,000
So you have to come back in the 
office for three days a week 

355
00:18:12,000 --> 00:18:16,200
which made a lot of employees 
very upset and concerned because

356
00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:18,300
they set up their life to work 
from home. 

357
00:18:18,500 --> 00:18:21,000
A lot of them don't even live 
close to an office. 

358
00:18:21,400 --> 00:18:24,200
So this is a dramatic change to 
a lot of the employees working 

359
00:18:24,200 --> 00:18:26,900
at Amazon. 
In my opinion. 

360
00:18:26,900 --> 00:18:31,300
I see this as another precursor.
Other pretense to potential 

361
00:18:31,300 --> 00:18:33,900
layoffs. 
Amazon is basically saying look 

362
00:18:33,900 --> 00:18:36,900
if you don't want to come back 
to the office and you want to 

363
00:18:36,900 --> 00:18:38,900
just quit or work somewhere 
else. 

364
00:18:39,200 --> 00:18:42,800
We're okay with that right now. 
We are Ghibli have too many 

365
00:18:42,800 --> 00:18:46,200
employees so if I was working at
Amazon as a work from home 

366
00:18:46,200 --> 00:18:49,800
employee, I wouldn't be as 
concerned about returning to the

367
00:18:49,800 --> 00:18:53,500
office as I would, another 
potential round of layoffs that 

368
00:18:53,500 --> 00:18:55,600
would actually be the greater 
concern for me. 

369
00:18:55,600 --> 00:18:59,000
Now moving on we have the 
continued debate, this heavily 

370
00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:01,600
debated Checked over the FED 
pivot. 

371
00:19:01,800 --> 00:19:04,600
This is very important to 
investors of all kinds. 

372
00:19:04,900 --> 00:19:08,400
The FED pivot means that the 
Federal Reserve stops raising 

373
00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:11,300
interest rates, because the 
economy becomes so weak, and 

374
00:19:11,300 --> 00:19:14,900
inflation goes down so quickly, 
that instead of raising interest

375
00:19:14,900 --> 00:19:18,600
rates, they need to cut rates 
and rates start to come down by 

376
00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:23,100
the end of 2020. 3, that would 
be the great fed pivot that 

377
00:19:23,100 --> 00:19:26,200
would be a positive thing for 
the equity markets. 

378
00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:29,500
But this is the most debated 
topic and financial media as of 

379
00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:32,700
Now and we have people like 
Jeremy Siegel that are firmly in

380
00:19:32,700 --> 00:19:35,800
the camp that the Federal 
Reserve has raised interest 

381
00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:39,300
rates too much too quick. 
It's having a Stranglehold on 

382
00:19:39,300 --> 00:19:41,500
the economy. 
We're going to see economic 

383
00:19:41,500 --> 00:19:45,000
weakness in the future which 
will cause the FED to lower 

384
00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:47,400
interest rates. 
So Jeremy Siegel thinks we're 

385
00:19:47,400 --> 00:19:50,300
going to have that fed pivot. 
The jobs report came in double 

386
00:19:50,300 --> 00:19:53,100
what was expected. 
And now you see, Jeremy Siegel 

387
00:19:53,100 --> 00:19:56,300
taken aback, a little everyone's
talking, you knows, I listen, I 

388
00:19:56,300 --> 00:20:00,800
will admit, I was shocked by the
strength of the Very payrolls, 

389
00:20:01,100 --> 00:20:05,000
but by the time, the March 22nd 
23rd meeting comes along. 

390
00:20:05,300 --> 00:20:08,300
We're going to have the February
payrolls. 

391
00:20:08,900 --> 00:20:11,800
In fact, you know, October 8th, 
we're gonna have the jolts 

392
00:20:11,800 --> 00:20:15,200
report that's going to be really
important on October 10th. 

393
00:20:15,300 --> 00:20:19,200
We're gonna have the February 
employment report, very 

394
00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:26,500
important if we see a big slow 
down there, I think German POW 

395
00:20:26,500 --> 00:20:30,400
wants to go 25. 
However, I will say, Say if it's

396
00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:34,600
as strong as we got in January. 
Yeah, 50 is, is definitely on 

397
00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:36,400
the table. 
Now Jeremy Siegel is changing 

398
00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:38,100
his tone a little bit. 
He's saying that if we have 

399
00:20:38,100 --> 00:20:41,100
another report like January, 
he's not going to just raise 

400
00:20:41,100 --> 00:20:42,800
interest rates by 25 basis 
points. 

401
00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:45,700
He's going to raise it by 50 
basis points which would be the 

402
00:20:45,700 --> 00:20:49,300
opposite of what investors want.
Now someone else on the other 

403
00:20:49,300 --> 00:20:53,000
side of this is David Rubenstein
who says that, he doesn't think 

404
00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:55,900
there's going to be a Fed pivot 
at all and he explains why I 

405
00:20:55,900 --> 00:20:59,000
think the market is finally 
recognizing that inflation is 

406
00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:01,500
not going. 
Way the FED is Resolute. 

407
00:21:01,500 --> 00:21:04,300
They made they made it clear 
several times recently, that 

408
00:21:04,300 --> 00:21:06,800
they really want to get the rate
down to, and place right down 

409
00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:09,900
the 2%, not 3%. 
And therefore, I think the 

410
00:21:09,900 --> 00:21:13,100
market takes the FED very 
seriously, but that doesn't mean

411
00:21:13,100 --> 00:21:16,300
we're going to have a hard 
Landing or so-called recession. 

412
00:21:16,900 --> 00:21:19,200
It just too early for anybody 
really know where that's going 

413
00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:20,700
to have where that's going to 
happen or not. 

414
00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:24,200
The market is finally starting 
to understand that inflation is 

415
00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:27,000
not going away and the FEDS not 
going to be lowering interest 

416
00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:29,400
rates. 
And there we have the endless. 

417
00:21:29,500 --> 00:21:32,700
Aunt and battle over, what the 
FED is going to do next? 

418
00:21:32,700 --> 00:21:35,900
Now, a lot of this may seem 
inconsequential as an investor, 

419
00:21:35,900 --> 00:21:39,300
if you're investing in, let's 
say Home Depot or Lowe's or 

420
00:21:39,300 --> 00:21:42,500
Johnson & Johnson, or if you're 
investing in any great dividend 

421
00:21:42,500 --> 00:21:45,700
company or even growth 
companies, but what the FED does

422
00:21:45,700 --> 00:21:49,500
has a massive impact on the 
valuations of every company in 

423
00:21:49,500 --> 00:21:51,800
your portfolio. 
In fact, it may have the biggest

424
00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:53,900
impact on the valuations of them
here. 

425
00:21:53,900 --> 00:21:56,500
We're looking at the 10-year 
treasury, the 10-year, 

426
00:21:56,500 --> 00:22:01,000
treasuries, yielding 3.89. 
Six percent right now. 

427
00:22:01,300 --> 00:22:04,800
So let's call it 3.9%. 
This is a much higher yield than

428
00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:07,500
where this treasury was only one
year ago. 

429
00:22:07,500 --> 00:22:10,800
In fact, just a couple years 
ago, it was less than 1%. 

430
00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:15,100
So, it's gone from less than one
percent to almost 4% in. 

431
00:22:15,100 --> 00:22:18,100
This is what's been causing a 
lot of havoc and Chaos in the 

432
00:22:18,108 --> 00:22:20,200
market. 
I think right now, a lot of 

433
00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:23,200
investors have sort of an 
understanding of how the 10-year

434
00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:25,200
treasury Works in correlation to
stocks. 

435
00:22:25,500 --> 00:22:28,700
But I'd like to clarify this and
make it a little bit more easy 

436
00:22:28,700 --> 00:22:30,300
to understand. 
For new investors. 

437
00:22:30,300 --> 00:22:32,900
So I wanted to put up this 
graphic here to describe. 

438
00:22:32,900 --> 00:22:36,000
Clearly how interest rates 
impact your company's 

439
00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:38,400
valuations. 
And what I'm referring to here 

440
00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:42,400
is interest rates being gravity.
Warren Buffett famously said 

441
00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:45,700
that interest rates are like 
gravity for every other 

442
00:22:45,700 --> 00:22:48,200
investment, including the stock 
market. 

443
00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:52,600
Meaning that as interest rates, 
increase over time, the stock 

444
00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:56,200
market goes down over time, it 
has more weight and pressure on 

445
00:22:56,200 --> 00:23:01,100
everything, and a lot of people 
don't And why interest rates are

446
00:23:01,100 --> 00:23:02,700
gravity. 
So, here we are. 

447
00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:05,500
Let me go ahead and give the 
example of the 10-year treasury.

448
00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:09,100
Let's say the 10-year treasuries
at a one percent yield right 

449
00:23:09,100 --> 00:23:10,900
now. 
One percent yield for the 

450
00:23:10,900 --> 00:23:13,300
10-year treasury. 
Well, if you're looking at 

451
00:23:13,300 --> 00:23:16,100
potential investment 
opportunities, you might look at

452
00:23:16,100 --> 00:23:19,800
your stock portfolio and then 
you may glance at bonds, what 

453
00:23:19,800 --> 00:23:23,500
can you buy the 10-year treasury
for to put this in perspective 

454
00:23:23,500 --> 00:23:26,800
and make it easier to compare. 
Let's compare it in terms of 

455
00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:28,900
price to earnings. 
So if you're looking at 

456
00:23:28,900 --> 00:23:30,400
different companies, Open. 
He's in you're trying to 

457
00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:32,400
evaluate whether or not they're 
expensive. 

458
00:23:32,500 --> 00:23:34,200
You look at the forward P/E 
ratio. 

459
00:23:34,400 --> 00:23:37,100
How much earnings will they have
over the next 12 months? 

460
00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:40,300
If you look at a 10-year 
treasury, that's yielding, one 

461
00:23:40,300 --> 00:23:45,300
percent you would be paying 100 
times next 12 months earnings 

462
00:23:45,400 --> 00:23:47,600
that's expensive. 
Anyone investing in the stock 

463
00:23:47,600 --> 00:23:50,100
market knows that a company 
trading at 100. 

464
00:23:50,100 --> 00:23:54,400
P/E ratio is expensive and 
implied in that expense, as a 

465
00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:57,300
lot of future growth. 
Well, in the case of the 10-year

466
00:23:57,300 --> 00:24:01,200
treasury, there's no growth. 
It's He's at that 1% for the 

467
00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:04,600
full 10 years. 
Imagine buying a company trading

468
00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:08,500
at a 100 PE ratio that's not 
going to grow its earnings for 

469
00:24:08,500 --> 00:24:11,800
the next 10 years. 
That is how unappealing 

470
00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:16,100
treasuries have been at that one
percent range, they're just not 

471
00:24:16,100 --> 00:24:18,400
an option, nobody really wants 
to buy them. 

472
00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:21,500
The only reason that you would 
have any money in treasuries is 

473
00:24:21,500 --> 00:24:25,000
if you're just storing cash 
that's the only conceivable 

474
00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:27,400
reason the alternative 
Investments which have been 

475
00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:30,800
stocks over the past 10 years. 
Well they look really attractive

476
00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:32,800
by comparison. 
You could buy stocks that are 

477
00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:37,500
trading on average around a 17, 
forward P/E 17s, a lot cheaper 

478
00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:41,000
than 100 and you get the added 
benefit that stocks have 

479
00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:43,600
earnings growth. 
So it's a much better deal. 

480
00:24:43,800 --> 00:24:47,000
And this is why the stock market
has done so well over the past 

481
00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:50,000
decade, but the situation is 
starting to change. 

482
00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:53,200
For example, let's just take the
hypothetical that. 

483
00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:56,600
Now, the 10-year treasury goes 
up to 1.5 percent because the 

484
00:24:56,600 --> 00:25:00,200
FED is Raising interest rates. 
Well, now, the forward P/E is 37

485
00:25:00,300 --> 00:25:03,400
still expensive, but not quite 
as astronomical. 

486
00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:05,800
Let's go ahead and just assume 
the 10-year treasury goes up to 

487
00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:07,600
2%. 
Now, the forward price to 

488
00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:11,100
earnings of the 10-year. 
Treasury is 50 still pretty 

489
00:25:11,100 --> 00:25:14,000
pricey stocks are probably a 
better option. 

490
00:25:14,100 --> 00:25:16,800
Now let's go ahead and assume it
goes up to 2.5 percent. 

491
00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:20,400
Well, the PE goes down to 40. 
It's looking a little better, 

492
00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:24,300
but still at this point I'd 
rather take my luck with stocks 

493
00:25:24,300 --> 00:25:26,600
the 10-year treasury goes to 3 
percent. 

494
00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:31,100
Now, the forward P/E is 33 some 
Investors might start buying a 

495
00:25:31,100 --> 00:25:34,300
10-year treasury at this point. 
Getting that three percent yield

496
00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:38,300
if it goes to 3.5% the price to 
earnings is 28, that looks 

497
00:25:38,300 --> 00:25:40,600
pretty reasonable. 
There's many stocks trading at 

498
00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:43,000
that same price. 
Now the 10-year treasury, again,

499
00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:45,700
doesn't have any earnings 
growth, but it also doesn't have

500
00:25:45,700 --> 00:25:49,200
any risk stocks have risk. 
So a lot of more conservative 

501
00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:52,800
investors are saying, I'd rather
take the 3.5%. 

502
00:25:52,900 --> 00:25:55,700
Well, let's say it goes to four 
percent right around where it is

503
00:25:55,700 --> 00:25:58,800
today, that is a price to 
earnings of 25. 

504
00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:01,900
That's not Reasonable especially
when it's risk free. 

505
00:26:01,900 --> 00:26:05,300
And if you take this logic and 
extend, it just a little further

506
00:26:05,300 --> 00:26:07,300
into what could be the near 
future. 

507
00:26:07,700 --> 00:26:12,200
If it goes to 5%, you're paying 
a multiple of 20 times next 

508
00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:15,300
year's earnings if the 10-year 
treasury, went to eight percent.

509
00:26:15,300 --> 00:26:17,500
It would be a more attractive 
investment than the broader 

510
00:26:17,500 --> 00:26:19,800
Market. 
You're paying a lower multiple 

511
00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:23,000
and you're getting the added 
benefit of taking on no real 

512
00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:24,700
risk. 
So when you look at this 

513
00:26:24,700 --> 00:26:27,700
overall, this is the reason that
Warren Buffett refers to 

514
00:26:27,700 --> 00:26:32,100
interest rates as being Ava t as
the 10-year treasury moves up in

515
00:26:32,100 --> 00:26:34,900
its yield, the relative 
valuation and relative 

516
00:26:34,900 --> 00:26:38,300
attractiveness of equity, 
Investments of taking risk and 

517
00:26:38,308 --> 00:26:40,500
stocks. 
It becomes relatively speaking 

518
00:26:40,500 --> 00:26:43,600
less attractive and since we 
live in a world of Relativity 

519
00:26:43,600 --> 00:26:46,300
where every investor has 
different options of what to 

520
00:26:46,300 --> 00:26:50,100
invest their money in, this has 
a huge impact on what stocks are

521
00:26:50,100 --> 00:26:52,200
worth. 
You look at the opportunity cost

522
00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:55,500
of every investment you make. 
So I can't say what direction, 

523
00:26:55,500 --> 00:26:58,900
the 10-year treasury is going. 
It's very difficult to say, and 

524
00:26:58,908 --> 00:27:00,900
there's many, Opinions on the 
subject. 

525
00:27:00,900 --> 00:27:04,300
But just note the reason this is
argued so much is because it has

526
00:27:04,300 --> 00:27:07,400
a dramatic impact on your 
portfolio and your Investments, 

527
00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:10,800
but as of right now with the 
options, I have what the 10-year

528
00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:15,100
treasury at near 4%. 
I still consider my portfolio of

529
00:27:15,100 --> 00:27:18,600
companies far more attractive 
and the reason being is I'm 

530
00:27:18,600 --> 00:27:22,700
expecting a dramatically higher 
return than a 4% return over the

531
00:27:22,700 --> 00:27:25,700
next 10 years. 
I think I can get above a 10% 

532
00:27:25,700 --> 00:27:28,600
return. 
So for that even though the four

533
00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:31,900
percent Has no risk. 
I'd still rather risk it in the 

534
00:27:31,900 --> 00:27:34,700
equity markets, in pursuit of a 
much higher return. 

535
00:27:34,700 --> 00:27:37,300
So that's all for this episode. 
I hope you enjoyed the update 

536
00:27:37,300 --> 00:27:40,400
and just on a side note, I 
appreciate everyone that tuned 

537
00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:43,400
into my most recent episode on 
the Joseph, Carlson after-hours 

538
00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:45,100
channel. 
The one about the super 

539
00:27:45,100 --> 00:27:48,400
investors, got one hundred and 
six thousand views and the 

540
00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:51,300
feedback that I've received for 
this episode is incredibly 

541
00:27:51,300 --> 00:27:53,100
positive. 
A lot of people enjoyed it. 

542
00:27:53,300 --> 00:27:56,000
So if you haven't check this one
out, I'd recommend going and 

543
00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:57,800
watching it. 
I think it's a lot of fun, but 

544
00:27:57,800 --> 00:27:59,300
that's all for this episode. 
I'll see you. 

545
00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:00,000
In the next one. 
In the next one.

