1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:03,200 20:23 so far has been an incredible year. 2 00:00:03,200 --> 00:00:05,300 Just this year, my portfolio is up. 3 00:00:05,300 --> 00:00:09,400 Sixty five thousand dollars. That's a 17 percent gain so far. 4 00:00:09,400 --> 00:00:12,700 This portfolio has reached a landmark of 90 thousand eight 5 00:00:12,700 --> 00:00:15,700 hundred dollars. It's a lot of money and most of 6 00:00:15,707 --> 00:00:18,600 it has come from most of the companies that I'm investing in 7 00:00:18,800 --> 00:00:21,200 doing really well. All of them are performing at 8 00:00:21,200 --> 00:00:23,300 different levels. Some are doing slightly better 9 00:00:23,300 --> 00:00:25,200 than others, but overall the performance has been 10 00:00:25,200 --> 00:00:28,500 outstanding, but even as other companies do okay, the portfolio 11 00:00:28,500 --> 00:00:32,299 has been led by one Orry. And that one category is the 12 00:00:32,299 --> 00:00:34,500 tech category. If I switch over to the year to 13 00:00:34,500 --> 00:00:39,000 date view here, Microsoft and Apple are both up over seventeen 14 00:00:39,000 --> 00:00:41,400 thousand dollars. This year, this is pretty big 15 00:00:41,400 --> 00:00:43,800 games for two companies in a single year. 16 00:00:43,800 --> 00:00:47,300 Microsoft, for example, is up 44 percent, it's basically a 45 17 00:00:47,300 --> 00:00:50,400 degree line just going further. And further up with apple were 18 00:00:50,400 --> 00:00:54,300 up a remarkable 48 percent year-to-date and likewise it's 19 00:00:54,300 --> 00:00:57,700 just a 45 degree line going up and to the right it's actually 20 00:00:57,700 --> 00:00:59,400 incredible. How these companies have been 21 00:00:59,400 --> 00:01:00,900 Trading. And that's what I want to talk 22 00:01:00,900 --> 00:01:03,900 about in this episode as these companies have performed 23 00:01:03,900 --> 00:01:06,200 exceptionally. Well in price, I want to see if 24 00:01:06,200 --> 00:01:08,100 their intrinsic value has followed. 25 00:01:08,100 --> 00:01:11,200 We're going to be discussing intrinsic valuations, especially 26 00:01:11,200 --> 00:01:13,800 of the big tech companies. We also have some additional 27 00:01:13,800 --> 00:01:17,000 news, Microsoft is now saying that they're going to earn 10 28 00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:19,700 billion dollars from annual AI Revenue. 29 00:01:19,900 --> 00:01:22,600 Going to be looking at what that new reoccurring revenue is and 30 00:01:22,600 --> 00:01:25,700 we have an update on Disney, the Disney Financial, Chief clash 31 00:01:25,700 --> 00:01:28,000 with the top Executives before stepping down. 32 00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:32,200 So we have the CFO Gene McCarthy stepping down from Disney and 33 00:01:32,200 --> 00:01:34,300 we're going to be looking at Disney and doing a little bit of 34 00:01:34,300 --> 00:01:36,600 a catch up. And then finally it's Friday 35 00:01:36,600 --> 00:01:39,500 which means we go to tick tock and we try to get the best tips 36 00:01:39,500 --> 00:01:42,000 for making money. Luckily, we have a tick tock 37 00:01:42,000 --> 00:01:45,300 hair, which is the simple instructions of how to make a 38 00:01:45,300 --> 00:01:47,200 million dollars. They go over it. 39 00:01:47,300 --> 00:01:49,400 Everyone can be a millionaire. Here's how you do it. 40 00:01:49,400 --> 00:01:50,700 Now, obviously, we have a lot to get to. 41 00:01:50,700 --> 00:01:52,100 So let's go ahead and get started. 42 00:01:52,200 --> 00:01:54,800 First of all, we do things differently here at the jaws of 43 00:01:54,800 --> 00:01:57,600 Carlson show. Most investors most content 44 00:01:57,600 --> 00:01:59,800 creators and most other channels are short. 45 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:03,500 Term Trend following. This channel, does not do that. 46 00:02:03,500 --> 00:02:06,200 We are long-term focus on companies that I call 47 00:02:06,200 --> 00:02:10,000 compounding machines compounding machines are companies that are 48 00:02:10,000 --> 00:02:13,200 incredibly Capital efficient, their ones that have high 49 00:02:13,200 --> 00:02:16,600 Returns on Capital employed. They're typically monopolistic 50 00:02:16,600 --> 00:02:18,900 their dominant in the domain that they compete in. 51 00:02:18,900 --> 00:02:20,700 They have high barriers to entry. 52 00:02:20,900 --> 00:02:24,200 They have great growth profiles. These companies continually grow 53 00:02:24,200 --> 00:02:27,800 organic Revenue, earnings per share and free cash flow per 54 00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:29,900 share compounding. Machines are companies that it 55 00:02:29,908 --> 00:02:33,500 can be held on multi-year basis. Has I buy into these compounding 56 00:02:33,500 --> 00:02:36,500 machines as concentrated positions, and hold them for a 57 00:02:36,508 --> 00:02:39,300 multi-year basis. Meaning that typically, I hold 58 00:02:39,300 --> 00:02:41,900 companies for at least a minimum of three years. 59 00:02:41,900 --> 00:02:46,600 For example, Costco has been held since 2017, half a decade 60 00:02:46,600 --> 00:02:49,100 holding this company. And while I buy into these 61 00:02:49,100 --> 00:02:52,000 compound machines, it's also important that I have a 62 00:02:52,000 --> 00:02:53,800 different mentality. The most of the market. 63 00:02:53,800 --> 00:02:57,500 And this is what I believe is a bigger distinction overall than 64 00:02:57,500 --> 00:03:00,600 even the companies I pick, I've showed this slide Before at the 65 00:03:00,608 --> 00:03:03,600 beginning of the year, this is the mentality that we try to 66 00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:06,900 have at the Joseph Carlson show. We don't get excited. 67 00:03:06,900 --> 00:03:10,500 When the market goes up today, the market is going up this 68 00:03:10,500 --> 00:03:13,800 year, the market is going up. Investors are enthused. 69 00:03:13,800 --> 00:03:16,500 Investors are excited. They're feeling good. 70 00:03:16,700 --> 00:03:20,200 We try to avoid going along with the pack and filling in that 71 00:03:20,200 --> 00:03:24,300 same excitement at the same time, when prices get cheaper 72 00:03:24,300 --> 00:03:27,300 when the market goes down, we don't let that get us depressed. 73 00:03:27,300 --> 00:03:29,400 We divorce our emotions from Market. 74 00:03:29,900 --> 00:03:32,700 I meant we remain completely insular in our thinking and 75 00:03:32,700 --> 00:03:35,700 sentiment about company prices. We're patient. 76 00:03:35,800 --> 00:03:38,400 Real K, being bored at the Joseph Carlson show. 77 00:03:38,700 --> 00:03:42,200 I don't invest in Nvidia, I don't invest in the most flashy 78 00:03:42,200 --> 00:03:45,300 companies like Tesla. I invest in boring companies 79 00:03:45,500 --> 00:03:48,800 like into it or Costco or Texas Roadhouse. 80 00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:51,700 They do not have to be flashy to give phenomenal. 81 00:03:51,700 --> 00:03:53,800 Gains, we don't need to fit in with the pack. 82 00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:57,300 We have no attachment to stocks, I'll sell any company as long as 83 00:03:57,300 --> 00:03:58,800 I think there's a better opportunity. 84 00:03:59,100 --> 00:04:02,000 We remain cold. Calculated and systematic part 85 00:04:02,000 --> 00:04:04,100 of the reason this portfolio has done. 86 00:04:04,100 --> 00:04:07,600 Well, it's had Market beating returns so far last year and 87 00:04:07,600 --> 00:04:10,900 this year is a result of the combination of the stock picking 88 00:04:10,900 --> 00:04:13,300 criteria focusing on good companies. 89 00:04:13,500 --> 00:04:16,300 And the mentality of having a long term perspective and 90 00:04:16,300 --> 00:04:19,200 remaining detached from the rest of the market and remaining, 91 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:21,700 emotionally detached from the rest of the market. 92 00:04:21,700 --> 00:04:25,400 Not going along with the pack is much easier said than done. 93 00:04:25,600 --> 00:04:28,800 Most people say that they can do this, most people feel like they 94 00:04:28,800 --> 00:04:31,400 can do this. It really comes down to it. 95 00:04:31,400 --> 00:04:35,500 Most people struggle doing this. They get excited when everyone 96 00:04:35,500 --> 00:04:38,100 else gets excited. They see the gains that they've 97 00:04:38,100 --> 00:04:41,300 made this year, and they want to pour more and more money into 98 00:04:41,300 --> 00:04:44,700 the same companies, making further gains, we have right 99 00:04:44,700 --> 00:04:49,400 now, a market that by the actual metrics is in the extreme greed 100 00:04:49,400 --> 00:04:51,900 category. This is one of the highest grade 101 00:04:51,900 --> 00:04:55,400 categories that this measurement has ever had looking at this 102 00:04:55,400 --> 00:04:58,200 over a timeline. This is the peak point of greed 103 00:04:58,200 --> 00:05:01,500 exceeding, where it's been for the past Two years, investors 104 00:05:01,500 --> 00:05:04,700 are enthused. They're pushing prices up more 105 00:05:04,700 --> 00:05:09,100 and more every single day and this follows right along with 106 00:05:09,100 --> 00:05:11,900 human nature. The logic is pretty simple. 107 00:05:12,200 --> 00:05:16,000 When stocks are headed up, investors become very happy and 108 00:05:16,000 --> 00:05:18,800 they believe that stocks will go up forever. 109 00:05:19,200 --> 00:05:21,800 It seems comical when you really just think about it. 110 00:05:21,800 --> 00:05:24,300 Investors think that because stocks have gone up, they will 111 00:05:24,300 --> 00:05:27,100 go up forever but that's exactly what they do. 112 00:05:27,300 --> 00:05:30,100 They come up with, rationalizations they Um, up 113 00:05:30,100 --> 00:05:33,400 with lots of different explanations of why this stock 114 00:05:33,400 --> 00:05:37,400 will never go back down of why it's headed higher and higher 115 00:05:37,400 --> 00:05:39,500 and higher. Think about the companies that 116 00:05:39,500 --> 00:05:41,300 this is happening with right now. 117 00:05:41,500 --> 00:05:44,400 I can think of, at least, one of them that I think fits this 118 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:49,000 category Nvidia, this companies up another 2% today investors 119 00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:52,000 can't pour money into this company fast enough. 120 00:05:52,000 --> 00:05:55,000 The market cap is a staggering one point zero five trillion 121 00:05:55,000 --> 00:05:59,400 dollars, the P/E, ratios a 40 Ford, PE the Enterprise Value to 122 00:05:59,400 --> 00:06:02,200 anybody. 56. That's over double what Amazon 123 00:06:02,200 --> 00:06:03,700 is. Right now, the free cash flow 124 00:06:03,700 --> 00:06:07,500 yield of the company's .47 and if we factor in stock base 125 00:06:07,500 --> 00:06:11,300 competent .21, but what do we have going on right now with 126 00:06:11,300 --> 00:06:13,500 Nvidia? The shares are trading higher. 127 00:06:13,500 --> 00:06:17,100 As the Geniuses at Morgan. Stanley have raised their price 128 00:06:17,100 --> 00:06:22,400 Target from 450 to 500 dollars. The analysts always follow the 129 00:06:22,400 --> 00:06:24,800 stock price, as the stock goes up. 130 00:06:24,800 --> 00:06:26,900 There's no reason it'll ever come down. 131 00:06:27,000 --> 00:06:29,700 There's nothing that can ever turn this train around and video 132 00:06:29,800 --> 00:06:32,700 is headed for the moon and all the fools not making money in it 133 00:06:32,700 --> 00:06:34,800 right now. Well you're just missing out so 134 00:06:34,800 --> 00:06:37,600 you better jump on that train. If we look at a company like 135 00:06:37,600 --> 00:06:40,800 Microsoft, just a year ago it was going in the opposite 136 00:06:40,800 --> 00:06:43,000 direction. Look at it over the past five 137 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:47,100 years from 2021 to 2022. The price is going down and the 138 00:06:47,108 --> 00:06:51,000 investor sentiment on Microsoft at the time was literally the 139 00:06:51,000 --> 00:06:53,300 exact opposite as the price steadily. 140 00:06:53,300 --> 00:06:56,600 Went down investors thought that it would continue to go down. 141 00:06:56,800 --> 00:06:58,700 They came up with rationalizations and 142 00:06:58,700 --> 00:07:01,700 justifications. For I Microsoft had always been 143 00:07:01,700 --> 00:07:04,800 overvalued and it was finally going back down and this time, 144 00:07:04,800 --> 00:07:07,700 it was deserved. So we have the mentality of the 145 00:07:07,700 --> 00:07:10,100 market. When stocks go up investors, 146 00:07:10,100 --> 00:07:13,300 believe they'll go up forever. When stocks go down investors, 147 00:07:13,300 --> 00:07:16,000 believe, they'll go down forever and obviously, neither of these 148 00:07:16,000 --> 00:07:18,700 cases are accurate. The truth lies somewhere in the 149 00:07:18,700 --> 00:07:20,600 middle. Every company has an intrinsic 150 00:07:20,600 --> 00:07:21,900 value. And that's what we try to 151 00:07:21,900 --> 00:07:24,200 measure, engage our buys and sells off of. 152 00:07:24,200 --> 00:07:27,500 So, knowing that investors right now are in the hypemode the 153 00:07:27,500 --> 00:07:31,100 enthusiastic mode and the stocks will I'll never come back down 154 00:07:31,100 --> 00:07:33,500 mode having that context in mind. 155 00:07:33,600 --> 00:07:36,400 Let's go ahead and look at my portfolio and estimate, the 156 00:07:36,400 --> 00:07:38,900 intrinsic value and how things have changed. 157 00:07:39,000 --> 00:07:41,800 The first thing I want to do is actually go back and reference a 158 00:07:41,808 --> 00:07:44,100 video. I did eight months ago, this 159 00:07:44,100 --> 00:07:47,900 video was eight months ago, it was seen by 65,000, people, the 160 00:07:47,900 --> 00:07:50,800 exact date was September thirtieth, twenty twenty-two. 161 00:07:50,800 --> 00:07:54,100 And what I did was valuations on a lot of the companies that I 162 00:07:54,100 --> 00:07:57,300 held at the time, at the very top, we had my intrinsic value 163 00:07:57,300 --> 00:08:00,400 estimate for Apple. The current price of At the time 164 00:08:00,400 --> 00:08:04,800 of this video was 142 dollars. Now, apple is trading at a price 165 00:08:04,800 --> 00:08:07,600 that I considered to be undervalued. 140. 166 00:08:07,600 --> 00:08:09,800 Right there was the undervalued price. 167 00:08:10,100 --> 00:08:13,100 I said, the fair value of Apple was 180. 168 00:08:13,400 --> 00:08:18,200 Overvalued was 220, apple is now at 185 slightly above my 169 00:08:18,200 --> 00:08:20,800 intrinsic value estimate it trades at a free cash flow. 170 00:08:20,800 --> 00:08:23,700 Yield of 3.3, a stock based compensation staff. 171 00:08:23,700 --> 00:08:27,100 Free cash flow yield of 2.9. So it's actually getting up 172 00:08:27,100 --> 00:08:30,000 there a little bit higher where the free cash flow you Olds 173 00:08:30,000 --> 00:08:33,299 lower, but it's still healthy. Apple still has a better yield 174 00:08:33,299 --> 00:08:35,400 than a lot of other comparable tech companies. 175 00:08:35,500 --> 00:08:37,900 And if we're going to Value the company on an earnings basis, 176 00:08:37,900 --> 00:08:40,500 it's at a 25 PE. And now I'm in the green by over 177 00:08:40,500 --> 00:08:43,100 twenty four thousand dollars. Now, it's great, that Apple has 178 00:08:43,100 --> 00:08:45,700 reached that fair value estimate, I believe it's gone up 179 00:08:45,700 --> 00:08:49,900 to its true intrinsic value. But as the price goes up as the 180 00:08:49,900 --> 00:08:52,400 market has, now given Apple a good bid. 181 00:08:52,600 --> 00:08:54,800 It means the margin of safety has gone down. 182 00:08:55,000 --> 00:08:59,500 For example, I think it's easier for Apple to trade from 180. 183 00:08:59,900 --> 00:09:04,600 To 140, then it would be for Apple to trade from 140 to 180. 184 00:09:04,700 --> 00:09:07,700 Even though both of them are 40 dollar price declines, I didn't 185 00:09:07,700 --> 00:09:12,400 going from 140 down to 100 makes Apple extraordinarily cheap, 186 00:09:12,400 --> 00:09:16,200 going from 180 down to 140. Just makes it undervalued so 187 00:09:16,200 --> 00:09:18,300 apple right now, is that a decent price? 188 00:09:18,300 --> 00:09:21,200 But the margin of safety is a little bit less as a companies 189 00:09:21,200 --> 00:09:24,400 traded to intrinsic value. The way that I look at this is 190 00:09:24,400 --> 00:09:27,900 that right now? Apple for me is not a by and I 191 00:09:27,900 --> 00:09:30,600 know it's different because I already have A large position in 192 00:09:30,600 --> 00:09:33,000 this company but I really try to add to it. 193 00:09:33,000 --> 00:09:35,800 A monk's weakness, when other investors are fearful. 194 00:09:35,900 --> 00:09:38,300 When other investors are questioning the future of Apple. 195 00:09:38,500 --> 00:09:41,400 That's when I add more to the company right now is not one of 196 00:09:41,400 --> 00:09:44,200 those time periods. Investors are not questioning 197 00:09:44,200 --> 00:09:47,400 the future of Apple. Their pricing in a very bright 198 00:09:47,400 --> 00:09:51,100 future for Apple, a prosperous one one that I think will happen 199 00:09:51,300 --> 00:09:53,700 but it's already being priced in to some extent. 200 00:09:54,000 --> 00:09:58,300 So while Apple in my opinion is not a cell I'm not going to be 201 00:09:58,300 --> 00:10:01,500 exiting my holding It's certainly not a by what I'm 202 00:10:01,500 --> 00:10:03,900 doing with apple right now is I'm holding. 203 00:10:03,900 --> 00:10:07,100 And from what I see with apple this year, I do believe the 204 00:10:07,100 --> 00:10:10,400 intrinsic value is nudging upwards as the companies 205 00:10:10,400 --> 00:10:12,400 creating more avenues for growth. 206 00:10:12,500 --> 00:10:14,700 There's a metric. I love to look at for the 207 00:10:14,700 --> 00:10:17,700 intrinsic value of a company and it's the adjusted free cash flow 208 00:10:17,700 --> 00:10:20,200 per share. This metric is the free cash 209 00:10:20,200 --> 00:10:24,200 flow on a per share basis - the stock based Campana per share 210 00:10:24,200 --> 00:10:26,600 basis. So, in my opinion, it's the most 211 00:10:26,600 --> 00:10:29,200 pure form of free cash flow that you get and it's the best 212 00:10:29,200 --> 00:10:31,100 overall. Indicator of whether companies 213 00:10:31,100 --> 00:10:33,500 actually growing its intrinsic value or not. 214 00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:35,700 What we can see is that over the past five years. 215 00:10:36,000 --> 00:10:38,600 Apple's intrinsic value has grown dramatically. 216 00:10:38,800 --> 00:10:42,000 Going up at a rate of nearly 24% per year. 217 00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:45,900 I think that Apple can continue to grow its intrinsic value at 218 00:10:45,900 --> 00:10:48,300 around 15 to 20 percent per year. 219 00:10:48,500 --> 00:10:51,300 It seems a little aggressive but people thought this is 220 00:10:51,300 --> 00:10:55,600 aggressive way back in 2017. The company's 3x from there and 221 00:10:55,600 --> 00:10:58,300 the intrinsic value has grown by 3x as well. 222 00:10:58,500 --> 00:11:01,700 And they've done it with Enormous ecosystem. 223 00:11:01,900 --> 00:11:04,700 That is the most important part of apples moat. 224 00:11:04,800 --> 00:11:08,000 As long as they maintain the ecosystem, they will continue to 225 00:11:08,000 --> 00:11:11,900 find Avenues to be able to monetize their massive installed 226 00:11:11,900 --> 00:11:15,500 device and committed user base. The thing that really sets Apple 227 00:11:15,500 --> 00:11:18,500 apart from where it was five years ago, is the product 228 00:11:18,500 --> 00:11:22,300 categories that it now has the company has an entire category 229 00:11:22,300 --> 00:11:25,900 called Services, which is the high margin digital Revenue 230 00:11:25,900 --> 00:11:30,000 portion of this company growing at a very fast pace there Eking 231 00:11:30,000 --> 00:11:34,700 out now, over 20 billion dollars in service Revenue per quarter, 232 00:11:35,000 --> 00:11:39,000 100 billion dollars a year in service Revenue, that's like a 233 00:11:39,000 --> 00:11:42,800 fortune 20 company just because of their service revenues alone. 234 00:11:42,800 --> 00:11:45,200 And I don't know the exact numbers on this, but I assume 235 00:11:45,200 --> 00:11:48,200 that the margins on this service Revenue are similar to The 236 00:11:48,200 --> 00:11:51,300 margins of Microsoft. So while I do not consider Apple 237 00:11:51,300 --> 00:11:54,700 cheap anymore and I would not instruct someone to pile into 238 00:11:54,700 --> 00:11:56,400 apple with their life savings anymore. 239 00:11:56,700 --> 00:11:59,200 It's not quite at the point that I would sell the company. 240 00:11:59,200 --> 00:12:02,500 I'm still Looking at this type of range, if the company gets 241 00:12:02,500 --> 00:12:05,500 above two hundred dollars per share but gets into the two 242 00:12:05,500 --> 00:12:07,800 tens. I will be selling a large part 243 00:12:07,800 --> 00:12:10,900 of my steak at that point but we're just not there yet. 244 00:12:11,000 --> 00:12:12,700 Now the next big tech company that's gone through an 245 00:12:12,700 --> 00:12:16,300 incredible run is Microsoft. Another large concentrated 246 00:12:16,300 --> 00:12:18,600 compounding machine in this portfolio. 247 00:12:18,600 --> 00:12:23,200 Microsoft trades at a price of around 350 dollars today and the 248 00:12:23,200 --> 00:12:26,100 company's price. Year-to-date has basically been 249 00:12:26,100 --> 00:12:29,200 a 45-degree slope going up over and over again. 250 00:12:29,500 --> 00:12:33,000 And Investors are obviously in the category now of being 251 00:12:33,000 --> 00:12:37,100 estatic being excited, Microsoft has literally positioned itself 252 00:12:37,100 --> 00:12:40,100 as the AI dominant company trying to muscle out Google and 253 00:12:40,100 --> 00:12:42,100 metaphor. That top tier position. 254 00:12:42,100 --> 00:12:45,400 They predict now that AI in and of itself will lead to an 255 00:12:45,400 --> 00:12:48,400 incremental, ten billion dollars in reoccurring revenue, and they 256 00:12:48,400 --> 00:12:51,300 say that this will happen by intermingling all of their AI 257 00:12:51,300 --> 00:12:54,900 products like chat, gbt and putting AI into being searched 258 00:12:54,900 --> 00:12:58,200 into the Windows operating system and to things like Azure 259 00:12:58,200 --> 00:12:59,600 and all of their various software. 260 00:13:00,100 --> 00:13:03,500 So AI is now a part of Microsoft investors. 261 00:13:03,500 --> 00:13:07,700 Love AI investors, love the new shiny thing to get excited 262 00:13:07,700 --> 00:13:09,700 about. In this case, it's a i and it's 263 00:13:09,700 --> 00:13:13,500 become a large buzzword that I do believe impact stock prices. 264 00:13:13,600 --> 00:13:18,200 Now, while today, Microsoft trades around 350 dollars a year 265 00:13:18,200 --> 00:13:21,500 ago when I made my valuation framework and I came up with the 266 00:13:21,500 --> 00:13:25,200 intrinsic value of 350. Microsoft at the time was 267 00:13:25,200 --> 00:13:31,600 trading for. $238 it went up more than $100 in share price, 268 00:13:31,600 --> 00:13:34,000 what I'd like to do for the research on Microsoft and the 269 00:13:34,008 --> 00:13:36,300 current valuation is reference a video. 270 00:13:36,300 --> 00:13:39,500 I did on big Tech valuation just five months ago. 271 00:13:39,700 --> 00:13:42,200 The video is called Big Tech his cheap and it came out. 272 00:13:42,200 --> 00:13:45,700 January 6 2023. Here's a segment from that video 273 00:13:45,800 --> 00:13:49,000 where I go over, Microsoft's valuation, why I thought the 274 00:13:49,000 --> 00:13:51,800 company was cheap and I think this works as a good Anchor 275 00:13:51,800 --> 00:13:54,500 Point currently. Now, next up, we have Microsoft, 276 00:13:54,500 --> 00:13:56,700 which is another company I think is cheap. 277 00:13:56,700 --> 00:13:59,600 I own this one in the story fund and my dividend portfolio. 278 00:13:59,700 --> 00:14:04,100 Looking at this one, the big problem with Microsoft is the 279 00:14:04,100 --> 00:14:07,100 forward P/E ratio, that's what everybody's looking at in 280 00:14:07,100 --> 00:14:11,100 today's market, which I think is good, but we have to look at a 281 00:14:11,100 --> 00:14:14,500 couple things here on quadrant says the forward P/E ratios 282 00:14:14,500 --> 00:14:17,300 based. It's a 27 and keep in mind, this 283 00:14:17,300 --> 00:14:20,700 is based on analyst estimates of next year's earnings. 284 00:14:20,700 --> 00:14:22,600 And this is where we have some disagreements. 285 00:14:22,600 --> 00:14:27,100 I think this is very low. It's assuming an eight dollar 286 00:14:27,100 --> 00:14:29,700 earnings per share, next year when we look at a lot of Of 287 00:14:29,708 --> 00:14:32,500 different assumptions. We have this right here which is 288 00:14:32,500 --> 00:14:35,600 a table of different analysis to suing nine dollars. 289 00:14:35,600 --> 00:14:39,000 And fifty four cents next year, my assumption is that Microsoft 290 00:14:39,000 --> 00:14:43,300 can earn around 10 dollars next year if Microsoft earned ten 291 00:14:43,300 --> 00:14:47,500 dollars next year which again I think they can it's no guarantee 292 00:14:47,500 --> 00:14:49,500 worst case scenario. They earn eight and it's really 293 00:14:49,500 --> 00:14:54,800 a 27 Ford PE ratio but if they earned eight dollars or sorry 294 00:14:54,800 --> 00:14:59,600 ten dollars next year, instead of eight the Ford PE would be 20 295 00:14:59,700 --> 00:15:03,800 You right now, maybe buying Microsoft at a 22 Ford PE. 296 00:15:04,100 --> 00:15:08,000 If we look at that historically that means that Microsoft right 297 00:15:08,000 --> 00:15:12,500 now today is the cheapest it's been since 2019 for just a 298 00:15:12,900 --> 00:15:16,800 couple trading days there and then all the way back to 2017. 299 00:15:17,100 --> 00:15:20,100 That's the last time you'd be able to buy Microsoft at today's 300 00:15:20,100 --> 00:15:24,000 price and people are saying that Microsoft is so expensive. 301 00:15:24,000 --> 00:15:26,600 Now it's such an expensive company, look at the high. 302 00:15:26,600 --> 00:15:29,600 Multiple Microsoft was just trading at a 35. 303 00:15:29,700 --> 00:15:34,000 Five Ford PE for over a year that's where this company trades 304 00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:36,300 during bull markets with how powerful it is. 305 00:15:36,700 --> 00:15:39,600 It has a credit rating better than the US government. 306 00:15:39,700 --> 00:15:43,700 It's a diversified monopolistic business that has its hands in 307 00:15:43,700 --> 00:15:46,900 every part of corporate America. I don't see this company going 308 00:15:46,900 --> 00:15:50,700 away for another hundred years. So even if the earnings come in 309 00:15:50,700 --> 00:15:53,700 a little bit lower, next year, worst case scenario, you're 310 00:15:53,700 --> 00:15:57,900 getting it at a 27 Ford P/E ratio, which I still think is 311 00:15:57,900 --> 00:16:01,600 inexpensive for Microsoft. But best case scenario, you get 312 00:16:01,600 --> 00:16:05,700 it out of 22 for PE because next year they earn ten dollars in 313 00:16:05,700 --> 00:16:08,000 earnings per share. And again, I don't think that 314 00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:10,700 that's out of the question. I think there's a decent chance 315 00:16:10,700 --> 00:16:13,000 they can earn nine and a half ten dollars. 316 00:16:13,000 --> 00:16:17,200 So, in that video five months ago, I went over the worst case 317 00:16:17,200 --> 00:16:19,600 in the best case. And like I said, the worst case 318 00:16:19,600 --> 00:16:23,700 scenario was you're owning Microsoft at a 27 Ford PE which 319 00:16:23,700 --> 00:16:26,400 I didn't think was all that bad and I certainly didn't think 320 00:16:26,400 --> 00:16:29,500 that investors would lose money even with the worst case, 321 00:16:29,600 --> 00:16:32,000 Scenario. But what happened was the best 322 00:16:32,000 --> 00:16:34,000 case scenario. I say in the video that 323 00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:38,000 Microsoft trades at around a 35 forward P/E, in a bull market. 324 00:16:38,000 --> 00:16:40,600 And I also say that I believe that Microsoft would earn around 325 00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:42,400 10 dollars in earnings per share. 326 00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:45,200 Well, here we are. Microsoft is projected to earn 327 00:16:45,200 --> 00:16:48,900 around 10 dollars in earnings per share in 2023 and the 328 00:16:48,900 --> 00:16:53,200 companies around 350, which puts it nicely in that, 35 forward 329 00:16:53,200 --> 00:16:55,600 P/E. So, we're back into the bull 330 00:16:55,600 --> 00:16:59,000 market, Microsoft is now fully valued and the stock price has 331 00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:04,000 gone up. Over $100 from 240 to 350. 332 00:17:04,099 --> 00:17:07,500 Now, that's great for buying Microsoft, a year ago and 333 00:17:07,500 --> 00:17:11,099 participating in this huge market gain and this huge shift 334 00:17:11,099 --> 00:17:12,800 that's happened over the past year. 335 00:17:13,099 --> 00:17:17,300 The issue has it, puts it now, nicely and that intrinsic value 336 00:17:17,300 --> 00:17:19,700 category. This is the area that we don't 337 00:17:19,700 --> 00:17:21,800 really want to be buying companies in. 338 00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:25,200 We want to buy them in the undervalued category. 339 00:17:25,200 --> 00:17:28,000 So this puts us in the same predicament with apple, we have 340 00:17:28,000 --> 00:17:30,800 a company that I believe is at its intrinsic value. 341 00:17:30,800 --> 00:17:33,600 I don't think it's grossly overvalued, but I also don't 342 00:17:33,600 --> 00:17:37,000 think that it's now undervalued and as its in its intrinsic 343 00:17:37,000 --> 00:17:39,500 value, the margin of safety is a lot lower. 344 00:17:39,600 --> 00:17:42,400 The company could trade back down into that undervalued 345 00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:45,500 category, but the decision of whether to lock in games and 346 00:17:45,500 --> 00:17:48,400 take advantage of all of this Market, enthusiasm, or the 347 00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:51,800 decision of whether to just hold the company, remain long term. 348 00:17:51,800 --> 00:17:55,700 And let this thing, ride is a tough decision, Microsoft again, 349 00:17:55,700 --> 00:17:59,100 over the past year has gone from a 22-4. 350 00:17:59,700 --> 00:18:06,300 PE to a 35, a 22 to a 35, is a lot of multiple expansion, a lot 351 00:18:06,300 --> 00:18:09,900 of investors becoming excited and investors can change their 352 00:18:09,900 --> 00:18:14,400 enthusiasm on a dime and this thing could swing back around 353 00:18:14,500 --> 00:18:17,500 multiples, could contract. So that's the chance you take 354 00:18:17,500 --> 00:18:19,300 and the risk. You Take by remaining long. 355 00:18:19,300 --> 00:18:22,800 The company right now, with Microsoft, I feel very similar 356 00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:26,800 with apple that this company is not a by, but it's also 357 00:18:26,800 --> 00:18:28,900 difficult to sell the company right now. 358 00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:32,100 I'm going to be Baiting my options here over the next week, 359 00:18:32,100 --> 00:18:34,900 whether or not I decide to trim and take a little exposure off 360 00:18:34,900 --> 00:18:37,400 the table, lock in some gains, or whether or not. 361 00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:40,400 I remain with my full fifty, six thousand dollar position. 362 00:18:40,400 --> 00:18:44,100 But as of right now, neither Apple nor Microsoft are cheap. 363 00:18:44,100 --> 00:18:46,000 They were cheap, just six months ago. 364 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:48,400 They're not cheap today. Now after that, we have some 365 00:18:48,400 --> 00:18:51,500 other companies even outside, a big Tech that I did valuations 366 00:18:51,500 --> 00:18:55,000 on VG, for example, was trading at $29 per share. 367 00:18:55,200 --> 00:18:59,100 I said, the intrinsic value was 33 VG's a large holding of mine. 368 00:18:59,100 --> 00:19:02,300 I really The company because of the Simplicity of business model 369 00:19:02,300 --> 00:19:04,700 and the predictability of its cash flows and growth. 370 00:19:04,700 --> 00:19:08,800 But Veatch has gone almost to that 33 dollar Mark right at the 371 00:19:08,800 --> 00:19:11,500 intrinsic value trading up from 29. 372 00:19:11,500 --> 00:19:14,800 Now the shift from 29 to 33 doesn't seem quite as impressive 373 00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:19,000 but keep in mind that this company also has a 7% yielding 374 00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:22,500 dividend pays a hefty dividend every single quarter but this is 375 00:19:22,500 --> 00:19:25,100 another one that I don't consider to be heavily 376 00:19:25,100 --> 00:19:27,900 undervalued right now. I consider it trading right 377 00:19:27,900 --> 00:19:31,200 around around its intrinsic value, Value another company 378 00:19:31,200 --> 00:19:33,700 that I don't want to continually add a ton of money. 379 00:19:33,700 --> 00:19:35,800 Right now, I'd rather just hold it. 380 00:19:35,900 --> 00:19:37,500 After that, we have Texas Roadhouse. 381 00:19:37,500 --> 00:19:40,800 This is another company that's a little bit weaker than the ones 382 00:19:40,800 --> 00:19:43,900 that I've been talking about. It's no apple or Microsoft. 383 00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:46,200 It's a restaurant and restaurants have a lot more 384 00:19:46,200 --> 00:19:48,200 Fierce competition. They're certainly not 385 00:19:48,200 --> 00:19:50,700 monopolistic. But at the time of this video 386 00:19:50,700 --> 00:19:55,300 just a year ago, Texas Roadhouse was trading at $89 per share. 387 00:19:55,600 --> 00:19:58,800 I said that, that was undervalued and that the fair 388 00:19:58,800 --> 00:20:03,000 value Trinsic Value Estimate for this company was 105, Texas. 389 00:20:03,000 --> 00:20:05,900 Roadhouse is currently at 110, it's above that previous 390 00:20:05,900 --> 00:20:09,200 intrinsic value estimate and the gains really have come in for 391 00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:11,600 this company between the dividend that it pays. 392 00:20:11,600 --> 00:20:12,700 As well as the capital appreciation. 393 00:20:12,700 --> 00:20:15,900 I now have eleven thousand six hundred dollars in this company. 394 00:20:15,900 --> 00:20:18,600 So this is another one that's in that same category of I believe 395 00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:21,300 being fairly valued but not necessarily being heavily 396 00:20:21,300 --> 00:20:24,200 undervalued. The big deal of Texas, Roadhouse 397 00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:26,600 being super cheap, I think is mostly gone. 398 00:20:26,600 --> 00:20:29,600 Now, the company should compound at its normal rate. 399 00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:32,000 Rate of around 15 to 20 percent per year. 400 00:20:32,000 --> 00:20:34,300 And then the last one I'll mention is Costco. 401 00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:37,200 A lot of people have questions about why I own Costco. 402 00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:40,500 When the company's trading far above, what I even consider to 403 00:20:40,500 --> 00:20:42,900 be the true intrinsic value of the company. 404 00:20:43,000 --> 00:20:46,500 For example, when I made this video nearly a year ago Costco 405 00:20:46,500 --> 00:20:50,200 stock price was trading at 480 and I had the intrinsic value at 406 00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:52,800 380. A full $100 cheaper than the 407 00:20:52,800 --> 00:20:56,000 current price but I continued to hold every single share of the 408 00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:57,800 company. So why do I hold a company that 409 00:20:57,800 --> 00:20:59,500 I think trades above its intrinsic? 410 00:20:59,600 --> 00:21:01,600 Value. The company has proven 411 00:21:01,600 --> 00:21:04,600 throughout so much of its history that it looks optically 412 00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:07,700 more expensive than it actually. Is that has been the same story 413 00:21:07,700 --> 00:21:09,500 since day, one of owning this company. 414 00:21:09,700 --> 00:21:13,100 And while I've been told a million times over that Costco's 415 00:21:13,100 --> 00:21:16,700 expensive, Costco's, expensive Costco's expensive, the stock 416 00:21:16,700 --> 00:21:18,700 has always done well, it's always done. 417 00:21:18,700 --> 00:21:21,500 Well, it's always out performed, it's one of the most consistent 418 00:21:21,500 --> 00:21:24,600 earnings grower ibadah, grower and free cash flow per share 419 00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:28,200 grower and out of the durability of different companies. 420 00:21:28,500 --> 00:21:31,300 I consider Costco. To be incredibly durable, even 421 00:21:31,300 --> 00:21:33,700 though it operates in highly competitive environment. 422 00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:37,000 Since that video Costco has moved up from 482. 423 00:21:37,000 --> 00:21:40,800 Now, 5:30 the company continues to move up and price above 424 00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:44,800 expectations and for me this is something that's really not that 425 00:21:44,800 --> 00:21:46,700 unexpected. It's beat the market 426 00:21:46,700 --> 00:21:48,700 year-to-date. It's performing like it does. 427 00:21:48,700 --> 00:21:52,000 Typically Costco will have minor sell-offs from time to time. 428 00:21:52,100 --> 00:21:55,500 Those are opportunities to buy the dip but overall the company 429 00:21:55,500 --> 00:21:59,400 will continue to compound so Costco's once again in this 430 00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:03,500 Corey of companies that I don't want to be buying right now, I'm 431 00:22:03,500 --> 00:22:06,900 not adding to this position, but I also don't really want to sell 432 00:22:06,900 --> 00:22:08,700 out of it. I really want to keep my 433 00:22:08,700 --> 00:22:11,000 interest in this wonderful business. 434 00:22:11,100 --> 00:22:13,200 It's proven itself, time and time again. 435 00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:16,400 And when I underwrite the future growth of the company, I don't 436 00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:20,000 see it slowing down anytime soon, so I have to admit, I'm in 437 00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:23,300 an odd position right now. Almost every company in my 438 00:22:23,300 --> 00:22:27,600 portfolios doing exceptional and I'm finding few places to put 439 00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:29,400 money that I consider to be easy. 440 00:22:29,500 --> 00:22:31,900 Money like I did just a year ago. 441 00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:33,600 I would never come out with the video. 442 00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:36,100 Big Tech is cheap today just the opposite. 443 00:22:36,100 --> 00:22:38,600 I think many of these companies are getting a little expensive 444 00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:40,600 and there's a couple things that are a little bit concerning in 445 00:22:40,608 --> 00:22:42,800 the market. I think the behavior behind 446 00:22:42,800 --> 00:22:45,900 Nvidia, shows an incredible amount of greed, the amount of 447 00:22:45,900 --> 00:22:49,200 money being poured into this company day after day is a 448 00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:52,900 little bit, alarming and videos. Now, bid up to prices that have 449 00:22:52,900 --> 00:22:56,800 an incredibly bright future. No price is too high currently 450 00:22:56,800 --> 00:22:59,700 for NVIDIA. So I know that investors are The 451 00:22:59,700 --> 00:23:03,000 a stick were in a bull market. Things are exciting right now, 452 00:23:03,100 --> 00:23:05,900 but we need to remain cold and calculated and make rational 453 00:23:05,900 --> 00:23:07,700 decisions. And when I look over my 454 00:23:07,700 --> 00:23:11,400 portfolio, trying to find the few places that haven't had the 455 00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:13,700 same excitement as the rest of the market. 456 00:23:13,900 --> 00:23:15,400 There's a couple that I can find. 457 00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:16,900 One of them is in the Industrials. 458 00:23:17,300 --> 00:23:20,300 The railroads so far this year, have not done. 459 00:23:20,300 --> 00:23:23,700 Well, they really have had no enthusiasm whatsoever. 460 00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:26,100 There are the exact same price when I bought in at the 461 00:23:26,108 --> 00:23:29,400 beginning of this year. So, year-to-date in comparison. 462 00:23:29,500 --> 00:23:34,200 Against the S&P 500 or the QQQ companies like Canadian Pacific, 463 00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:37,700 Union Pacific, I would imagine Canadian National Railway and 464 00:23:37,700 --> 00:23:41,000 any of the other railroads are not doing so hot. 465 00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:43,900 So these companies seem very interesting to me, I'm going to 466 00:23:43,900 --> 00:23:46,300 be adding more to both of these positions. 467 00:23:46,300 --> 00:23:48,700 I know it seems like the wrong thing to do right now. 468 00:23:48,900 --> 00:23:52,000 We should instead be piling our money into Apple Microsoft, 469 00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:55,300 Nvidia and Tesla. That's the opposite of how good 470 00:23:55,300 --> 00:23:58,000 investors operate. They pile money into the 471 00:23:58,000 --> 00:23:59,400 companies that are not currently. 472 00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:02,500 Loved by the rest of the market Canadian Pacific and Union 473 00:24:02,500 --> 00:24:04,900 Pacific. Have no magic surrounding them. 474 00:24:04,900 --> 00:24:07,800 There is no love being given to these companies and don't let 475 00:24:07,800 --> 00:24:10,500 the lack of stock price fool. You, these companies are 476 00:24:10,500 --> 00:24:13,800 compounding machines, they meet every single metric. 477 00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:17,400 Here is the adjusted free cash flow per share of Union Pacific. 478 00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:19,400 It is up. And to the right for the past 479 00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:22,200 decade, it's given Market beating returns with incredibly 480 00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:24,500 low risk, and it pays a high yielding dividend at the same 481 00:24:24,500 --> 00:24:26,500 time. Canadian, Pacific's, a wonderful 482 00:24:26,500 --> 00:24:29,300 company led by an incredibly intelligent management. 483 00:24:29,500 --> 00:24:32,400 That now had a great acquisition go through, it'll expand the 484 00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:35,200 earnings power of this company, and this is another one that's 485 00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:38,000 been widely Market beating for the past decade. 486 00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:41,100 It's grown it's adjusted free cash flow per share, it's grown, 487 00:24:41,100 --> 00:24:44,200 it's free cash flow like crazy. The earnings growth have been 488 00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:47,400 incredibly consistent so while investors are ignoring these 489 00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:50,300 companies while they're just kind of tossing them to the side 490 00:24:50,300 --> 00:24:54,000 because right now ai is the focus and these don't have ai in 491 00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:56,100 their name. I think their goodbyes right 492 00:24:56,100 --> 00:24:58,900 now, I'm going to be buying both of these companies and adding to 493 00:24:58,900 --> 00:25:01,300 these positions. Other companies that I think are 494 00:25:01,300 --> 00:25:05,200 a good buy right now in my portfolio, one of them is sp 495 00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:07,600 Global. This company has had a little 496 00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:10,100 bit of a bid this year, so it's actually starting to get 497 00:25:10,100 --> 00:25:14,400 recognized as an AI company, as a digital leader, as being a 498 00:25:14,408 --> 00:25:16,600 monopoly. This one's going up a little 499 00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:18,400 bit. So I'm not adding more to this 500 00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:20,500 position as it's already. Very sizable. 501 00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:24,100 But the one that really hasn't moved, a whole lot is into it, 502 00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:28,100 some slightly, I'm in the green by 1500 but I still think this 503 00:25:28,100 --> 00:25:31,300 company doesn't have the same Same level of enthusiasm as we 504 00:25:31,300 --> 00:25:34,300 see in big Tech, if we look at the past five years into it is 505 00:25:34,300 --> 00:25:36,800 all the way back to where it was in late 2020. 506 00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:39,800 So into it's another one that is long as this company mostly 507 00:25:39,800 --> 00:25:42,800 stays flattish, I'm going to be adding more to this position, 508 00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:45,400 getting it up to around a 40,000 dollar position. 509 00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:46,800 So that's where I'm at right now. 510 00:25:46,800 --> 00:25:50,400 It's difficult to find places to add money and it's difficult to 511 00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:52,500 know whether to hold or whether to sell. 512 00:25:52,700 --> 00:25:55,500 For the most part, I bought into companies, it will compound for 513 00:25:55,500 --> 00:25:58,200 a long period of time. So I feel fine holding these 514 00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:00,200 companies even at their in As value. 515 00:26:00,500 --> 00:26:03,600 But as the market continues to race up and investors believe 516 00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:06,000 and investors believe that there's no price too high. 517 00:26:06,100 --> 00:26:08,500 I will take advantage of that in a calculated way. 518 00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:10,400 That's a portfolio update. This time. 519 00:26:10,500 --> 00:26:11,800 Let's go ahead and move on to the news. 520 00:26:11,900 --> 00:26:15,100 We have some breaking news that a chief executive at Disney has 521 00:26:15,100 --> 00:26:18,700 abruptly stepped down and this woman was the CFO of the 522 00:26:18,700 --> 00:26:20,800 company. She had been there for over two 523 00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:24,600 decades and they say that this wasn't her just deciding to exit 524 00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:28,000 the company and take a retirement that was part of it 525 00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:31,000 but more importantly She was actually having huge. 526 00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:34,700 Disagreements internally. There's a lot of Discord between 527 00:26:34,700 --> 00:26:38,200 her and different groups, the abrupt exit of McCarthy, caught 528 00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:40,200 some colleagues and Associates by surprise. 529 00:26:40,500 --> 00:26:42,600 A person, familiar with her situation said that, there had 530 00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:45,300 been no dramatic changes in her life recently, that would 531 00:26:45,300 --> 00:26:48,600 require her to step back McCarthy had clashed with Disney 532 00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:52,200 chief executive, Bob, Iger and other top Executives over 533 00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:55,400 strategy, including the amount of money that Disney spends on 534 00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:58,700 content and a recent restructuring that she felt had 535 00:26:58,700 --> 00:27:00,800 not gone far enough. Of the Streamline, the company. 536 00:27:01,300 --> 00:27:05,500 So she had big disagreements with Bob Iger and in one way, or 537 00:27:05,500 --> 00:27:07,500 another decided to leave the company. 538 00:27:08,100 --> 00:27:11,900 Obviously, when top executives are leaving the company, that's 539 00:27:11,900 --> 00:27:14,600 not a really good sign. It's not something that I love 540 00:27:14,600 --> 00:27:16,700 to see. This doesn't mean Doom and Gloom 541 00:27:16,700 --> 00:27:18,700 for Disney. That's not what I'm saying here, 542 00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:20,700 but it is a little bit of a red flag. 543 00:27:20,700 --> 00:27:23,500 It just means that things aren't running smoothly in the company. 544 00:27:23,500 --> 00:27:25,200 They don't all see in the same vision. 545 00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:27,400 They're not all. Executing the same plan and 546 00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:30,000 Disney's a tough one. It's a company that I used to 547 00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:31,800 own. I did have this company as a 548 00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:34,300 very long-term holding. I started investing in the 549 00:27:34,300 --> 00:27:39,200 company in 2017. I held it all the way to 2023. 550 00:27:39,500 --> 00:27:43,100 So I held the company, well, over five years and in that time 551 00:27:43,100 --> 00:27:46,600 period, Disney gave me one reason or another to become 552 00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:50,200 less, and less committed to the company as an investment to have 553 00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:52,800 less and less trust that they would build compounding, 554 00:27:52,800 --> 00:27:54,600 intrinsic value for the investor. 555 00:27:54,700 --> 00:27:57,100 Now, looking at the company price now and the decision to 556 00:27:57,100 --> 00:27:58,800 sell. It seems pretty easy. 557 00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:01,300 I sold. A company around 115. 558 00:28:01,500 --> 00:28:04,200 So, as right at this point around here, this is one of the 559 00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:06,700 activist investor came into the business and really bump the 560 00:28:06,700 --> 00:28:09,700 stock price up. I use that as an opportunity to 561 00:28:09,700 --> 00:28:12,700 exit at what I consider to be. Not such a bad price. 562 00:28:12,700 --> 00:28:15,000 But now it's traded down to around ninety one dollars per 563 00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:17,600 share, which is where it's had major support. 564 00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:20,600 The stock price, typically trades down to around that area, 565 00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:23,800 it hangs out for a while and waits for another Catalyst to 566 00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:26,500 potentially go higher. But looking back now, I don't 567 00:28:26,500 --> 00:28:29,300 consider all cells in a portfolio to be bad. 568 00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:31,300 Dad and Disney's one of the companies. 569 00:28:31,300 --> 00:28:34,700 That as I look back on it, I have no regrets in selling out 570 00:28:34,700 --> 00:28:37,500 of this company. It may go up in the future, but 571 00:28:37,500 --> 00:28:41,000 I think it's very unpredictable. They have so much cash flows to 572 00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:43,900 make up for so many things have to go right with their 573 00:28:43,900 --> 00:28:47,400 execution, they're building out Disney plus, and then continuing 574 00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:50,400 to use their same brands of Star Wars and Marvel, which are 575 00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:53,500 becoming a little bit exhausted. So I really genuinely wish 576 00:28:53,500 --> 00:28:55,500 Disney investors continued luck in the stock. 577 00:28:55,500 --> 00:28:58,400 Hopefully, they're able to turn it around, I'd be happy to see 578 00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:00,000 that. But as of Right now, this is 579 00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:02,700 another thing that I consider to be a small red flag. 580 00:29:02,800 --> 00:29:05,200 Now, it's Friday, which typically means that we have 581 00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:08,200 some advice from Tick-Tock. And in this week we have the 582 00:29:08,200 --> 00:29:10,000 advice of how to become a millionaire. 583 00:29:10,300 --> 00:29:12,100 So I hope you have your pencil sharpened. 584 00:29:12,100 --> 00:29:14,400 I hope you're ready. I'm going to instruct everybody 585 00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:17,900 with the help of tick-tock of how we can all easily become a 586 00:29:17,900 --> 00:29:19,100 millionaire. Here we go. 587 00:29:19,700 --> 00:29:21,700 Someone wanted to make a million dollars that was their dream in 588 00:29:21,700 --> 00:29:22,600 life. What would you recommend to 589 00:29:22,608 --> 00:29:24,000 them? Anyone can really become a 590 00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:26,500 million because like the world is so big at the markets are so 591 00:29:26,500 --> 00:29:28,700 massive. All you got to do is get a 592 00:29:28,700 --> 00:29:31,500 dollar from a million people out of that's it. 593 00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:35,300 The markets are so massive and you can become a millionaire 594 00:29:35,300 --> 00:29:37,500 because the world is like so big. 595 00:29:37,500 --> 00:29:41,500 It's so big out there that you can become a millionaire and all 596 00:29:41,500 --> 00:29:44,700 you have to do is get one dollar from a million people. 597 00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:48,400 Simple as that just go find a million people and get a dollar 598 00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:50,400 from each of them like a billion. 599 00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:53,700 If you just walk around every single day asking for a dollar, 600 00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:58,200 they have a guy in this video going up to a car and asking for 601 00:29:58,200 --> 00:30:01,100 a dollar. You have to do is repeat this 602 00:30:01,100 --> 00:30:04,800 same process 1 million times and then you're a millionaire. 603 00:30:04,800 --> 00:30:07,100 In fact, if you really break down the math, you can become a 604 00:30:07,108 --> 00:30:09,300 millionaire in less than one year. 605 00:30:09,300 --> 00:30:13,500 All you have to do is ask 2,700 people for a dollar every day. 606 00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:15,700 You can get to know it's pretty easy. 607 00:30:15,900 --> 00:30:18,500 So like imagine if you actually worked hard is actually, you 608 00:30:18,500 --> 00:30:22,100 know, not that difficult. Now I get the idea here. 609 00:30:22,100 --> 00:30:25,000 I don't want to rag on this message too much. 610 00:30:25,000 --> 00:30:28,300 I do think that people can become millionaires over time 611 00:30:28,300 --> 00:30:31,800 with a lot of Ellen, a lot of good judgment and a lot of hard 612 00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:35,300 work so that's not a message. I necessarily disagree with but 613 00:30:35,300 --> 00:30:38,000 saying that it's easy repeatedly, and all you have to 614 00:30:38,000 --> 00:30:41,500 do is get one dollar from a million people that is the same 615 00:30:41,500 --> 00:30:46,400 as asking 2,700 people for a dollar every single day for an 616 00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:48,400 entire year. That's how many it would take 617 00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:50,300 you to get one dollar from every single person. 618 00:30:50,300 --> 00:30:54,100 Obviously, that's not that easy and saying that there's eight 619 00:30:54,100 --> 00:30:56,900 billion people on the planet is really not that applicable. 620 00:30:56,900 --> 00:31:00,200 First of all, a lot of those billions of of people are not 621 00:31:00,200 --> 00:31:02,500 going to give you a penny, they're in different countries. 622 00:31:02,500 --> 00:31:04,700 They're trying to get money of their own, they're not going to 623 00:31:04,708 --> 00:31:07,400 be handing out money to you, just because you go up and ask. 624 00:31:07,500 --> 00:31:10,100 So while I agree with the message to not limit yourself, 625 00:31:10,100 --> 00:31:12,100 don't think that you can accomplish great things. 626 00:31:12,300 --> 00:31:15,300 I also think this over simplifies things a little bit, 627 00:31:15,500 --> 00:31:17,900 getting to a million dollars is a very difficult feat to 628 00:31:17,900 --> 00:31:21,000 accomplish for most people. It takes a lot of continued hard 629 00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:24,500 work and dedication and serving an offering a lot of value to a 630 00:31:24,500 --> 00:31:26,300 lot of people over many years now. 631 00:31:26,300 --> 00:31:28,500 That's all for this episode. I'll see you in the next one.