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Welcome back, everyone. 
We have a lot to get into, we 

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had some news over the weekend, 
a lot of news. 

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In fact, on one of my biggest 
Holdings, which is Apple, Apple 

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still the top holding right now 
because it's had a lot of gains.

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I'm currently at fifty, four 
thousand dollars in this 

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company, with 19,500 of it being
gains. 

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Now, Apple had their Apple 
event, where they introduced all

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their new devices with their 
small. 

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Iterative changes changes like, 
the dynamic Island. 

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Now that little Notch at the top
of the screen, it's Useful. 

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It can actually do some things. 
These little changes to many are

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being mocked like apples. 
Not innovating the company's 

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reached a plateau. 
It's not going anywhere. 

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All these type of flat arguments
I'm just going to say it right 

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here. 
The commentary that I hear from 

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the majority of investors are 
wrong on Apple. 

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There's simply wrong. 
They believe the company has 

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plateaued, it's hit a peak, it 
doesn't have much room for 

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growth apples. 
Just an older company that's 

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matured and it doesn't really 
have anywhere to go from here. 

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These comments from investors. 
The Apple has already matured 

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and it has nowhere else to go is
missing the forest from the 

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trees. 
They're missing the main picture

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here and why this company 
eventually we'll get to over 

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$200 per share. 
So in this video, I'll be laying

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out the case of why Apple will 
get above $200 a share. 

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Now, I also just recently had 
some big news Vici raised their 

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dividend by 8%. 
I'll be giving my thoughts on 

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that as Vici is one of the 
biggest Holdings in my portfolio

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and fact right now, it's my 
second largest holding so I'll 

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be going over this dividend. 
Raise news and You know what? 

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I think of it and then we also 
have the subject of inflation to

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go over tomorrow. 
The CPI readings from August are

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going to come out and that will 
dominate the new cycle for the 

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rest of the week. 
Everyone will be talking about 

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inflation. 
Now the news media takes a very 

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short term view on this subject.
They say falling gas prices are 

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raising. 
Hopes that inflation is slowing 

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down. 
That's the news right now. 

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Inflation might be coming down. 
So what do you know, the market 

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right now is going up, this is 
how my yah pick the market is in

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the short term, the new Media is
focused on day by day week by 

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week and month by month. 
They're not focused on a 

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multi-year period. 
They don't take an eagle eyes, 

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view on anything. 
But on the Joseph Carlson show, 

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we do take an eagle eyes. 
You, if we go back five months, 

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I came out with a video that was
kind of a contrarian video most 

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people at the time, we're 
worried about inflation, going 

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up, and up, and up. 
Because at the time, it was only

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going up. 
And I came out with a video 

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saying that we hit Peak 
inflation, we already hit it and

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inflation's going. 
NG to go down. 

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Here's why? 
And I want to go revisit that 

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case because I think this video 
will prove to be correct. 

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So as always, we have a lot to 
jump into in this episode. 

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Let's go ahead and start off 
with a quick portfolio update 

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and then we'll jump into the 
Apple news. 

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Now this is my portfolio, the 
passive income account, it has 

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three hundred and sixty six 
thousand dollars of value, 43 

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thousand dollars in gains and it
is a dividend growth portfolio. 

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So a decent part of the overall 
returns is going to be the 

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compounding effect of these 
great companies paying me 

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dividends. 
And then, these dividends being 

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reinvested into sometimes 
different companies that offer 

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better value but are also 
dividend-paying companies that's

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the compounding life cycle of 
this portfolio. 

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Great companies that pay 
dividends the dividends buy more

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shares of different great 
companies that pay dividends. 

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Now, one of the most important 
companies in this portfolio is 

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Apple and apple had their major 
event last week and I want to 

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jump in and give my quick take 
on this event. 

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The first thing that I want to 
say is that investors on Apple, 

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the majority of investors that I
see cover. 

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This stock and commentate on 
this stock, and different people

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on Reddit, and Twitter, and 
social media, and YouTube, most 

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of them are wrong. 
They're dead wrong on Apple, and

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they're missing the forest from 
the trees, they focus on these 

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little things like this thing 
right here. 

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This island that changes and now
it's Dynamic. 

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And they mock it saying the 
apples no longer an Innovative 

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company is just doing these 
little incremental, iterative 

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adjustments to its phone and 
it's basically flattened out. 

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There's no room for the phone to
mature or grow. 

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Any more at this point investors
commentary on the Apple watch 

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Ultra this new more rugged. 
Big extreme Apple watch was just

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as erroneous investors looked at
this and said who would pay $800

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for a rugged Apple watch and 
this isn't as good as the Garmin

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or name off some other extreme 
watch that's been doing it for a

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while longer. 
They're doing these direct 

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comparisons from watch to watch.
Investors are looking at this 

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all wrong. 
I heard a lot of the same 

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chatter around the Apple earpod 
Pro 2's the even though they 

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have a new case and you can 
track the case as better, 

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charging better noise 
cancelling. 

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All these little iterative 
adjustments, most investors take

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away is that this wasn't that 
impressive of an event. 

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There wasn't anything that blew 
them away and the apples not 

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really innovating at the same 
Pace that they used to. 

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The company is matured, its kind
of washed up at this point. 

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Apple's no longer the Innovative
young iconic company that they 

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To be and many investors in 
their series of incorrect 

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assumptions, go so far as to say
that Apple shouldn't be trading 

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at $160 per share. 
It shouldn't be trading on a 24,

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P/E ratio. 
The company should be knocked 

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back down to a 15 PE back down 
to $100 per share. 

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All of this is wrong investors. 
Here are wrong on Apple, and 

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I'll lay out and explained very 
clearly why they're wrong. 

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First of all, the complaints 
about Innovation, let's just 

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revisit some investing He's 
here, stocks do not go up 

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because of innovation. 
That is not a reason that stocks

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go up in price if a company's 
more Innovative, it does not 

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mean the stock will go up. 
So people saying that Apple's 

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not innovating enough there for 
their stock. 

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Price should go down are making 
judgments based off of false 

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premises stocks. 
Do not go up because of 

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innovation, and they don't go 
down because of a lack of 

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innovation. 
Innovation is not a driver of 

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stock prices. 
If Innovation was the primary 

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driver of stock prices, Then why
is the ark Innovation ETF the 

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focus is on investing in all the
most Innovative companies in the

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world down. 62 percent over the 
past trailing year. 

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These so-called Innovative 
companies are innovating at a 

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faster Pace than the rest of the
market yet. 

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This is the worst performing 
Fund in the past year in the 

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entire fund management industry.
Well, again, the answers simple 

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stocks don't go up because of 
innovation, stocks, go up 

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because of money, because of 
earnings. 

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And because of free cash flow, 
profits Drive stocks up. 

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Upward. 
Not Innovation. 

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And one thing. 
Apples, incredibly good at even 

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better than Innovation is making
money last year. 

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Apple made ninety two point 
nine, five billion dollars in 

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free cash flow. 
That's money left on the table 

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after paying for all their 
Capital expenditures for Apple 

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to do whatever they want with. 
And the company does put this 

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money to use in most cases they 
do it's called BuyBacks, which 

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is buying their own stock. 
So, that's the first problem 

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with the Apple bears with the 
people thinking the stock is 

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going to get cut. 
Half the problem with this 

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assumption is that you'd have to
have a lot of people selling the

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stock and not a lot of people 
buying the stock. 

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We know that there's going to be
one big buyer of Apple stock all

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the time and that buyer is 
Apple. 

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They are chunking away at their 
share count, every single year. 

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Lowering, the amount of shares 
outstanding apple is the biggest

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buyer of their stock. 
So apples already a highly 

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profitable company that any time
the stock dips, they can simply 

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buy it back themselves further, 
putting up. 

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Upwards pressure on the stock 
price, but that isn't the 

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biggest reason that these Apple 
naysayers are wrong. 

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There's another thing I want to 
focus on that again, is left out

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of the conversation all the 
time. 

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When it comes to Apple, see the 
problem is, anytime an Apple 

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event happens, everyone focuses 
on the hardware. 

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They focus on the actual devices
like the new watch coming out, 

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the new form factor for the 
phone. 

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There's a new camera, the new 
are pods. 

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They focus on all the new 
devices and that isn't the 

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biggest growth driver for apple 
and Apples Revenue has been flat

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for the past year. 
It hasn't really been growing 

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over all the past. 
Couple of quarters. 

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It's been it mostly around the 
same area. 

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Apple Skeptics will say that. 
The company's growth is 

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basically done the company's 
reached maturity. 

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It's going to be this old kind 
of Boomer stock that just pays a

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dividend and it won't really 
have any strong Revenue growth, 

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the prom with looking at things 
through this lens of total 

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revenue without breaking down. 
The revenue is not all revenue 

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is the same some revenues worth 
a lot more than other Revenue 

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for example, Walmart's Revenue 
last year was over half a 

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trillion dollars, it was five 
hundred and seventy two billion 

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dollars. 
This company has massive amounts

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of Revenue, but yet a company 
called Microsoft is worth over 

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five times what Walmart is 
despite having less than half 

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the revenue, how can a company? 
Have less Revenue be worth five 

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times as much. 
It's because of margins, 

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Microsoft's revenue is more 
valuable than Walmart's revenue 

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and likewise we can actually 
look at Apples Revenue, segment 

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breakdown. 
Apple earns Revenue through 

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different business lines and 
those revenues are of different 

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value. 
The most valuable part of apples

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revenue is the highest margin 
portion of their revenue called 

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Services. 
Services includes AppleCare 

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Apple music. 
Apple news, Apple Fitness, Apple

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TV, plus all of their app store 
sales, all of the stuff that's 

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completely digital. 
That has relatively speaking, 

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no, marginal cost of 
reproduction. 

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These are things that cost 
nothing to really make but they 

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can sell it to as many people as
they want. 

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Digital sales has High-margin 
revenue. 

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And this is a portion of Apple. 
That's growing at a very brisk 

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Pace over the past. 
Four quarters, their service 

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Revenue has grown at above 12% 
per year, that is very fast 

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growth, and a consistent basis, 
that's faster than most 

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companies. 
And this has gotten to a point 

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where just last quarter was 
Nineteen point seven billion 

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dollars up. 12 percent 
year-over-year this is just 

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their service revenue and what 
is driving all this service 

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Revenue growth? 
Will it subscriptions the 

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reoccurring Revenue that Apple's
working on growing? 

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And I would say that they're 
doing a pretty good job. 

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If Morgan Stanley's research on 
this subject is anywhere close 

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to correct. 
They estimate the apples 

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growing. 
Their service Revenue 

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subscribers. 
The amount of subscribers by 30 

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to 40 million. 
New subscribers, every single 

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quarter last quarter. 
They estimated that they had 860

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million subscribers. 
This chart is growing fairly 

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quickly. 
It looks like a growth company 

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and this is the most important 
type of growth that the company 

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could have. 
If the He was growing their 

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hardware sales and their 
subscribers were going down. 

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That would spell trouble for 
Apple. 

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They'd be going in the wrong 
direction. 

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That's not what's happening 
their phone and device sales are

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going along as normal, but more 
importantly, their subscription 

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revenue is growing. 
So when you see investors, look 

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at the total revenue for apple 
and say that, the company's 

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growth is slowing their top 
line, revenue slowing down and 

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they've obviously plateaued 
because they're not innovating. 

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There's multiple wrong 
assumptions there. 

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First of all Innovation doesn't 
drive stock price appreciation. 

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Prophets Drive, stock price 
appreciation, apples, top line, 

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revenue is slowing. 
That's correct. 

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But their most important form of
Revenue. 

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The highest margin portion is 
continuing to grow at a very 

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high pace and that is their 
subscription Services. 

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That's the reason that we can 
look at different ratios from 

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Apple like their gross margins 
and even though they kept the 

230
00:11:20,300 --> 00:11:23,900
prices, the same during a time 
of high inflation, they will 

231
00:11:23,900 --> 00:11:28,800
continue to keep gross margins 
of 42 to 43 percent without 

232
00:11:28,800 --> 00:11:30,600
increasing price. 
Isis at all. 

233
00:11:30,700 --> 00:11:34,400
That is because of service 
Revenue subscription revenue and

234
00:11:34,400 --> 00:11:36,400
higher efficiency with their 
products. 

235
00:11:36,400 --> 00:11:38,500
Apple stock isn't going to hit 
two hundred dollars because 

236
00:11:38,500 --> 00:11:40,400
they're the most Innovative 
company in the world. 

237
00:11:40,500 --> 00:11:43,100
The reason that Apple will hit 
two hundred dollars per share is

238
00:11:43,100 --> 00:11:44,900
because they're going to make 
more money than any other 

239
00:11:44,900 --> 00:11:47,600
company in the world. 
So as of right now, I do have a 

240
00:11:47,600 --> 00:11:50,600
heavy bed on this company I 
could sell and take profits. 

241
00:11:50,800 --> 00:11:53,600
But I'm going to continue to 
hold it until I see the story 

242
00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:56,300
change right now. 
I consider Apple to be a 

243
00:11:56,300 --> 00:12:00,800
consumer defensive company like,
Kellogg's or Oh soup, but they 

244
00:12:00,800 --> 00:12:03,400
have better economics, they lock
and customers. 

245
00:12:03,500 --> 00:12:06,900
They keep them in their 
ecosystem and they eventually 

246
00:12:06,900 --> 00:12:10,100
slowly push them into 
subscriptions where they get 

247
00:12:10,100 --> 00:12:13,200
very high margin Revenue. 
That's the story of apple. 

248
00:12:13,200 --> 00:12:16,300
And so far, I don't see that 
changing now, there's always a 

249
00:12:16,300 --> 00:12:19,300
chance with every bad I make, 
and every company invest in 

250
00:12:19,500 --> 00:12:21,900
that, I could be wrong. 
So, maybe in this case, the 

251
00:12:21,900 --> 00:12:24,000
Bears are right. 
And Apple stock will go down to 

252
00:12:24,000 --> 00:12:26,200
a hundred dollars a share, but I
don't think that's going to 

253
00:12:26,200 --> 00:12:29,600
happen in my opinion. 
My thoughts on this and where my

254
00:12:29,700 --> 00:12:32,300
He is I think the stocks going 
to $200 per share. 

255
00:12:32,300 --> 00:12:34,900
So as of right now, I'm staying 
invested. 

256
00:12:34,900 --> 00:12:37,000
Now, we do have to talk about 
Vici here for a minute because 

257
00:12:37,000 --> 00:12:39,100
we had some great news from this
company. 

258
00:12:39,600 --> 00:12:42,700
This has been one of the stories
that I think has been one of the

259
00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:45,500
cleanest investing stories in my
portfolio. 

260
00:12:45,600 --> 00:12:48,200
Meaning the company 
operationally has been 

261
00:12:48,200 --> 00:12:51,100
fantastic. 
The leadership has executed 

262
00:12:51,200 --> 00:12:54,500
perfectly, in my opinion, they 
haven't made really any seeming 

263
00:12:54,500 --> 00:12:56,900
mistakes. 
The stock price is appreciated. 

264
00:12:56,900 --> 00:12:59,100
The dividends have grown the 
operating. 

265
00:12:59,800 --> 00:13:01,300
In the company's profits, have 
grown. 

266
00:13:01,400 --> 00:13:03,300
And just recently, they 
announced an eight point, three 

267
00:13:03,300 --> 00:13:07,000
percent increase to their 
dividend bringing it to 39 cents

268
00:13:07,000 --> 00:13:10,400
per share per quarter from 36 
cents per share per quarter. 

269
00:13:10,900 --> 00:13:13,200
Now, I know if you're new to 
investing an eight point three 

270
00:13:13,200 --> 00:13:16,400
percent increase doesn't seem 
like anything fantastic, but 

271
00:13:16,400 --> 00:13:20,200
that is a substantial passive 
income increase for doing 

272
00:13:20,200 --> 00:13:22,900
nothing. 
I literally did nothing for this

273
00:13:22,900 --> 00:13:26,200
stock to pay me more. 
And these profits aren't just 

274
00:13:26,200 --> 00:13:28,900
because the company's paying out
a higher and higher amount. 

275
00:13:29,200 --> 00:13:31,600
It's because the company is 
actually growing their rents. 

276
00:13:31,600 --> 00:13:34,900
They're growing their income and
then the returning that from the

277
00:13:34,900 --> 00:13:37,100
company's, paying them rent to 
me the shareholder. 

278
00:13:37,100 --> 00:13:39,600
So when I look at Vici, it meets
all the qualifications. 

279
00:13:39,600 --> 00:13:41,400
I look for for a dividend Growth
Company. 

280
00:13:41,600 --> 00:13:44,500
It pays me a growing dividend on
an incremental basis. 

281
00:13:44,800 --> 00:13:48,100
It has stability, I think it has
a wide mode, it has great 

282
00:13:48,100 --> 00:13:51,200
leadership and the stock is 
continuing to increase the 

283
00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:54,100
dividend over time without me. 
Even reinvesting. 

284
00:13:54,300 --> 00:13:57,400
Right now I have 42 thousand 
dollars in this company. 

285
00:13:57,400 --> 00:14:02,100
That's around 1240. 
Is so I am heavily invested in 

286
00:14:02,100 --> 00:14:04,100
Vici. 
It's my second largest holding 

287
00:14:04,300 --> 00:14:07,000
because of the appreciation, the
company has had, and I've really

288
00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:08,500
enjoyed the dividends that it's 
paying. 

289
00:14:08,800 --> 00:14:10,500
Here's the company's dividends 
over time. 

290
00:14:10,700 --> 00:14:13,900
The first one was $77. 
That's the first month that I 

291
00:14:13,908 --> 00:14:15,800
was buying into the company. 
Heavily. 

292
00:14:16,100 --> 00:14:19,300
I made a trip to Vegas. 
I saw how completely packed it 

293
00:14:19,300 --> 00:14:21,000
was. 
I looked at different 

294
00:14:21,000 --> 00:14:23,500
opportunities to invest there 
because I wanted to own a part 

295
00:14:23,500 --> 00:14:25,100
of it. 
And that's when I started doing 

296
00:14:25,100 --> 00:14:28,500
my initial research back in July
8th, I bought in heavily in the 

297
00:14:28,500 --> 00:14:30,400
company buying 20. 
A thousand dollars worth. 

298
00:14:30,400 --> 00:14:34,300
And then the more research I 
did, the more I invested in the 

299
00:14:34,300 --> 00:14:38,400
company, even though the stock 
price at this time October, it 

300
00:14:38,400 --> 00:14:41,600
started to Trend downwards and I
was receiving those, those 

301
00:14:41,600 --> 00:14:44,700
criticisms on YouTube, I 
continue to invest in the 

302
00:14:44,700 --> 00:14:48,000
company at one point over 
doubling my position, the 

303
00:14:48,000 --> 00:14:50,200
dividends went from two hundred 
and sixty two dollars per 

304
00:14:50,200 --> 00:14:54,600
quarter to four hundred dollars 
then 406 and then the last one 

305
00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:58,000
was for 45. 
Now I've done the math on what 

306
00:14:58,000 --> 00:15:01,700
this 8% increase. 
Will be and it will add around 

307
00:15:01,700 --> 00:15:04,600
two hundred dollars per year to 
my Vici position. 

308
00:15:04,900 --> 00:15:07,500
So roughly around $50 per 
quarter. 

309
00:15:07,500 --> 00:15:11,000
So, now without me doing 
anything with my share count 

310
00:15:11,000 --> 00:15:15,000
being the exact same with, no 
drip, no reinvestment. 

311
00:15:15,000 --> 00:15:20,200
My dividend will go from $445 to
around 500 dollars per quarter. 

312
00:15:20,600 --> 00:15:23,900
That is a significant amount of 
income from one company to 

313
00:15:23,900 --> 00:15:26,100
thousand dollars per year from 
Vici alone. 

314
00:15:26,100 --> 00:15:29,200
So even though I'm not actively 
buying Vici right now and when 

315
00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:31,400
they pee A dividend. 
I don't reinvest it back into 

316
00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:33,400
beachy, I'm very happy about 
this. 

317
00:15:33,400 --> 00:15:37,500
Raise that 8% increase. 
Bumping the dividend up to $500,

318
00:15:37,800 --> 00:15:41,000
makes it so that every three 
months I get to pick out what 

319
00:15:41,000 --> 00:15:44,500
company, my portfolio deserves, 
this Capital, which one is 

320
00:15:44,500 --> 00:15:47,800
presently the most undervalued 
and that further compounds, the 

321
00:15:47,800 --> 00:15:50,100
portfolio. 
And in terms of VG's, dividend 

322
00:15:50,100 --> 00:15:53,600
raises and my expectations. 
This is well in line with my 

323
00:15:53,600 --> 00:15:56,600
expectations, the company is a 
dividend grower. 

324
00:15:56,800 --> 00:15:59,600
They've grown their dividend 
every single year, since 2007, 

325
00:15:59,700 --> 00:16:01,400
15. 
Since they first started, I 

326
00:16:01,400 --> 00:16:02,800
think they'll do the same next 
year. 

327
00:16:02,900 --> 00:16:04,700
A seven to ten percent dividend 
raise. 

328
00:16:04,700 --> 00:16:07,200
So thank you, Ed Pitonyak and 
the team at Vici. 

329
00:16:07,200 --> 00:16:09,600
I appreciate your hard work. 
Now, moving on we have to talk 

330
00:16:09,600 --> 00:16:12,000
about inflation and I'll give 
you my prediction of the 

331
00:16:12,000 --> 00:16:14,600
inflation reading tomorrow as 
well as a call. 

332
00:16:14,600 --> 00:16:17,600
I made earlier this year. 
Now, before we jump into this 

333
00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:20,200
news on inflation, I have to 
give a shout out for today's 

334
00:16:20,200 --> 00:16:23,500
sponsor, which is the Joseph 
Carlson patreon. 

335
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If you have not tried out this 
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Developed with a previous 
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That's a suite of software for 
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One of the big features on this 
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It shows you all the trending 
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00:16:39,900 --> 00:16:41,600
in any company. 
See all the fundamentals, 

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00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:44,600
displayed on a single page. 
You can blow up any of these 

343
00:16:44,600 --> 00:16:47,300
graphs and it's updated 
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344
00:16:47,300 --> 00:16:50,300
report, we also include a 
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345
00:16:50,300 --> 00:16:53,700
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Analysis on every company called

346
00:16:53,700 --> 00:16:55,400
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00:16:58,600 --> 00:17:00,800
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Which ones are in a dip and it 

349
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tracking tool called qual term, 

350
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351
00:17:05,800 --> 00:17:09,700
Like I'm going to get $183 from 
Texas Roadhouse on the 23rd. 

352
00:17:09,800 --> 00:17:12,099
It shows you your growth and 
dividends over time. 

353
00:17:12,099 --> 00:17:14,800
It shows you you're holding 
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354
00:17:14,800 --> 00:17:17,700
monthly income and dividends 
over a long period of time, your

355
00:17:17,700 --> 00:17:21,200
projected dividends in the 
future and so on and so forth. 

356
00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:23,900
There's a lot to this software 
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359
00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:32,700
Dated the discussing breaking 
news episode discussions on my 

360
00:17:32,700 --> 00:17:35,700
show, we have an AMA portion 
where you can ask me any 

361
00:17:35,700 --> 00:17:38,500
question directly. 
And we have over seventy five 

362
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episodes of exclusive content. 
Most of these being around an 

363
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So there's a lot of video 

364
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So if you haven't already, join 

365
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Try out the patreon. 

366
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367
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it. 
You can try it out for free. 

368
00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:56,400
Now, getting back to this, major
news, we have inflation data 

369
00:17:56,400 --> 00:17:59,500
coming in for August tomorrow, 
that's when we find out. 

370
00:17:59,700 --> 00:18:01,600
What inflation was like last 
month? 

371
00:18:01,700 --> 00:18:04,300
It's trailing data, but it's 
still very important. 

372
00:18:04,500 --> 00:18:07,400
It affects the interest rates. 
It affects the feds actions. 

373
00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:10,700
And ultimately, it affects 
Equity stock prices. 

374
00:18:10,900 --> 00:18:14,400
So this is going to be the big 
piece of news that investors 

375
00:18:14,400 --> 00:18:16,200
talk about for the rest of the 
week. 

376
00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:18,900
The inflation data will be on 
the front page of Barons and 

377
00:18:18,900 --> 00:18:21,500
Wall Street Journal and 
financial times and everywhere 

378
00:18:21,500 --> 00:18:24,900
you look and I want to give a 
couple predictions and overall 

379
00:18:24,900 --> 00:18:27,700
give more of an eagle eye view 
of what direction I think 

380
00:18:27,700 --> 00:18:30,900
inflation is going now. 
One thing that I'll mention is 

381
00:18:30,900 --> 00:18:34,500
that the market overall 
investors and especially the 

382
00:18:34,500 --> 00:18:38,000
news media are very myopic 
meaning that they don't take an 

383
00:18:38,000 --> 00:18:40,100
eagle eye view. 
They look at everything from 

384
00:18:40,100 --> 00:18:43,800
month to month week to week, and
day-to-day their short-term 

385
00:18:43,800 --> 00:18:46,000
Focus, because that's what 
generates clicks and money. 

386
00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:49,600
But if you actually back up and 
take an eagle eye view, we can 

387
00:18:49,600 --> 00:18:52,800
see a clear Trend in the way 
that inflation is turning out, 

388
00:18:52,800 --> 00:18:56,300
this is what inflation looks 
like, overall, this is the core 

389
00:18:56,300 --> 00:19:00,200
CPI, which is when you rule out 
some of the more All tol 

390
00:19:00,200 --> 00:19:03,200
portions of inflation. 
And you look at the core basket 

391
00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:07,000
of consumer goods for inflation.
This is what it looks like since

392
00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:09,800
January of 2020, it was normal 
at that. 

393
00:19:09,800 --> 00:19:13,200
Point going from 2 percent down 
to 1.3 percent. 

394
00:19:13,300 --> 00:19:16,200
Then, of course, we had covid, 
it actually went down a little 

395
00:19:16,200 --> 00:19:19,800
bit when covid first started, 
but then quickly, when the 

396
00:19:19,800 --> 00:19:22,900
stimulus came out and Supply 
Chains, Got disrupted and 

397
00:19:22,900 --> 00:19:26,000
everything happened. 
Inflation started to spike going

398
00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:28,200
up to three percent, three 
point, eight percent 4 percent, 

399
00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:33,200
and then climb, Among all the 
way to six point five percent in

400
00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:38,300
March of 2022 inflation, hit its
peak which was six point. 

401
00:19:38,300 --> 00:19:42,200
Five percent. 
Now at this time, inflation was 

402
00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:46,300
only going up if we erase the 
right half of this graph after 

403
00:19:46,300 --> 00:19:50,300
March, or 2022, there was 
nothing but seven consecutive 

404
00:19:50,300 --> 00:19:53,600
quarters of inflation going up. 
It looked like the future is 

405
00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:56,400
pretty Grim. 
But I made a pretty contrarian 

406
00:19:56,400 --> 00:19:59,500
video at that time saying that I
thought it was the peak. 

407
00:19:59,600 --> 00:20:01,400
I thought that inflation was 
going to go down. 

408
00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:04,400
After this point, the video that
I released in March of this year

409
00:20:04,400 --> 00:20:07,700
was called inflation. 
Is going down here is why the 

410
00:20:07,700 --> 00:20:10,000
thumbnail of it said we hit the 
peak. 

411
00:20:10,000 --> 00:20:13,200
A lot of people say that these 
type of videos are clickbait or 

412
00:20:13,200 --> 00:20:14,700
that I'm just trying to get 
clicks there. 

413
00:20:14,700 --> 00:20:17,400
But what I actually said in the 
title and the thumbnail of this 

414
00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:20,200
video were my thoughts on where 
inflation was going. 

415
00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:22,900
Now my thought process in 
arguments in this video that I 

416
00:20:22,900 --> 00:20:24,500
released in March, we're pretty 
simple. 

417
00:20:24,800 --> 00:20:28,000
I thought that inflation has ran
up to the max extent commodity 

418
00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:29,400
prices were coming down. 
Whew. 

419
00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:32,400
Oil prices were starting to 
crack and the overall 

420
00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:35,000
year-over-year comps for 
inflation the previous year. 

421
00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:38,900
We're going to become much 
easier based off of last year's 

422
00:20:38,900 --> 00:20:41,900
core inflation data side out. 
There's a very good chance that 

423
00:20:41,900 --> 00:20:44,600
inflation would start to go down
and that's really what we 

424
00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:46,900
started to see. 
Just to put this in perspective,

425
00:20:46,900 --> 00:20:49,000
here's what the call looked 
like. 

426
00:20:49,000 --> 00:20:52,800
This is when I said that 
inflation at hit a peak, it was 

427
00:20:52,800 --> 00:20:57,800
exactly on the highest month. 
Now I don't say this to brag and

428
00:20:57,800 --> 00:20:59,600
I know that this is me 
highlighting one. 

429
00:20:59,600 --> 00:21:02,800
Correct call that I've had. 
But this is a pretty significant

430
00:21:02,800 --> 00:21:04,900
call. 
All highlight when I get things 

431
00:21:04,900 --> 00:21:07,600
wrong when I make mistakes, but 
I'm also going to highlight when

432
00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:10,700
I make a correct call, this is 
the exact month so far that core

433
00:21:10,700 --> 00:21:12,900
inflation. 
Hit its peak every single, 

434
00:21:12,900 --> 00:21:16,800
subsequent months, since March 
20, 22 inflation has come down 

435
00:21:16,800 --> 00:21:19,600
incrementally even by just a 
small amount. 

436
00:21:19,700 --> 00:21:22,500
Now there's different analysis 
and projections on what the data

437
00:21:22,500 --> 00:21:23,800
will be released. 
Tomorrow. 

438
00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:27,400
Most people believe that the 
overall inflation rate will be 

439
00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:30,100
around 8% and that quorum. 
Inflation. 

440
00:21:30,100 --> 00:21:34,500
This number here will go back to
6.1% Soul actually tick back 

441
00:21:34,500 --> 00:21:37,300
upwards a little bit. 
That's where the consensus lies.

442
00:21:37,500 --> 00:21:39,300
But there are some people that 
think that it's going to 

443
00:21:39,308 --> 00:21:41,700
continue to go down at least the
core inflation. 

444
00:21:41,900 --> 00:21:45,500
So we'll have to wait to see 
what happens tomorrow, but even 

445
00:21:45,500 --> 00:21:49,400
if it goes up a little bit in 
August, I still think overall 

446
00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:53,400
most of these projections are 
correct over the upcoming six 

447
00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:56,100
months inflation and core 
inflation. 

448
00:21:56,100 --> 00:21:59,200
Should tick downward. 
If that happens, it'll give the 

449
00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:02,200
More leverage to be able to do 
what they want. 

450
00:22:02,300 --> 00:22:05,300
They may not have to raise rates
as aggressively as they're 

451
00:22:05,300 --> 00:22:08,300
projecting right now and if the 
inflation data comes in 

452
00:22:08,300 --> 00:22:11,700
underneath expectations for both
overall inflation and core 

453
00:22:11,700 --> 00:22:15,200
inflation, I could see investors
really liking that news and 

454
00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:18,700
stocks going up for another day.
We had a green day today in 

455
00:22:18,700 --> 00:22:21,800
anticipation of the inflation 
data if it does do. 

456
00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:24,900
Well, if inflation comes down 
quite a bit, I think we'll see 

457
00:22:24,900 --> 00:22:27,600
another big green day. 
So that's my prediction in the 

458
00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:29,400
short term. 
Nobody knows for sure. 

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00:22:29,500 --> 00:22:32,300
Sure, but I think overall 
inflation will continue to tick 

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00:22:32,300 --> 00:22:35,600
downward and I think overall my 
prediction that inflation peaked

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00:22:35,600 --> 00:22:37,400
in March will prove to be 
correct. 

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00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:38,800
Now, that's all for this 
episode. 

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00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:40,300
I hope you enjoyed it and 
subscribe. 

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