1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,040 Welcome back everyone. Today on the Joseph Carlson 2 00:00:02,040 --> 00:00:05,480 Show, we get into yet another busy week in the stock market. 3 00:00:05,880 --> 00:00:08,039 Last week felt like a year, it felt like. 4 00:00:08,080 --> 00:00:10,000 A long time. Period to invest throughout all 5 00:00:10,000 --> 00:00:13,080 of this chaos. Uncertainty, all these constant 6 00:00:13,080 --> 00:00:16,360 changes in policy regarding tariffs, we've seen the effects 7 00:00:16,360 --> 00:00:18,960 that it's had on the 10 year Treasury commentary from 8 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:21,400 different businesses and the impact the. 9 00:00:21,400 --> 00:00:24,280 Whipsaw of the stock. Market, well, now we get all of 10 00:00:24,280 --> 00:00:27,600 that, it's continuing on and we're entering into earnings 11 00:00:27,600 --> 00:00:29,160 season. This is where these companies. 12 00:00:29,160 --> 00:00:32,240 Give their report card of what? Happened over the past 90 days 13 00:00:32,680 --> 00:00:35,640 as well as they more importantly give commentary on their. 14 00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:38,480 Views and perspectives. Of the current environment and 15 00:00:38,480 --> 00:00:41,920 what they're expecting over the next 90 days or the next year, 16 00:00:42,280 --> 00:00:43,240 this is where. We get to see. 17 00:00:43,240 --> 00:00:45,600 What companies are saying and this? 18 00:00:45,600 --> 00:00:47,960 Week is very busy if we look at the. 19 00:00:47,960 --> 00:00:50,600 Qualtrum earnings calendar. This shows you day by day, 20 00:00:50,600 --> 00:00:53,080 dynamically which companies are reporting earnings and 21 00:00:53,080 --> 00:00:54,400 information about their earnings. 22 00:00:54,560 --> 00:00:56,680 And here we have on Monday, Goldman Sacks. 23 00:00:56,680 --> 00:00:58,120 That it's already reported. Earnings. 24 00:00:58,480 --> 00:01:00,960 Now I circled some other really important companies. 25 00:01:01,280 --> 00:01:05,239 For example, on Wednesday, this Wednesday we have ASML. 26 00:01:05,640 --> 00:01:07,880 This is one of my key investments, one of my newer 27 00:01:07,880 --> 00:01:09,920 ones. I made a significant bet in 28 00:01:09,920 --> 00:01:12,560 ASML. TSM is also reporting earnings. 29 00:01:12,800 --> 00:01:15,240 On Thursday and we're. Going to see both of them this 30 00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:17,040 week. Their commentary on what to 31 00:01:17,040 --> 00:01:21,720 expect with iPhone demand with chip processing and AI demand. 32 00:01:21,960 --> 00:01:24,440 Everything related to all these. High end companies. 33 00:01:24,800 --> 00:01:27,760 These companies in many ways represent the demand. 34 00:01:27,960 --> 00:01:29,960 That all these big. Tech companies are facing. 35 00:01:30,280 --> 00:01:32,800 So this is an incredibly. Important week with these two 36 00:01:32,800 --> 00:01:34,520 very crucial companies reporting. 37 00:01:34,960 --> 00:01:37,840 And then on Thursday, we also. Have another one thrown in after 38 00:01:37,840 --> 00:01:38,560 market. Close. 39 00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:41,480 We have Netflix. Netflix is one of my most 40 00:01:41,480 --> 00:01:43,680 significant investments. It's a company that I've. 41 00:01:43,680 --> 00:01:46,360 Talked about for years. It's the reason that the Story 42 00:01:46,360 --> 00:01:48,600 Fund is doing so well, and we get to see how. 43 00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:50,880 They're doing and what they expect for the future. 44 00:01:50,880 --> 00:01:53,720 So we're going to dive into the numbers, what the expectations 45 00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:56,840 are, and I'm going to make some predictions overall with this 46 00:01:56,840 --> 00:01:59,480 earnings season of what all these companies are going to 47 00:01:59,480 --> 00:02:00,880 say. I believe there's going to be 48 00:02:00,880 --> 00:02:03,800 some common themes, especially regarding the tariffs and 49 00:02:03,800 --> 00:02:06,040 uncertainty. So I'll be going over just a few 50 00:02:06,040 --> 00:02:07,840 predictions about this earnings season. 51 00:02:08,160 --> 00:02:09,960 Now, of course, we also have some news to get to. 52 00:02:10,360 --> 00:02:12,480 We have an interview here, This one is. 53 00:02:12,960 --> 00:02:15,560 Ray Dalio. He went on to Meet the Press and 54 00:02:15,560 --> 00:02:16,920 I like. This because this. 55 00:02:16,920 --> 00:02:19,000 Is more of a. A territory that's. 56 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:23,240 Outside of the investment circle, it's not CNBC or Fox 57 00:02:23,240 --> 00:02:24,640 News. Now we're getting to. 58 00:02:24,640 --> 00:02:26,960 Just everyday people, everyday people. 59 00:02:26,960 --> 00:02:28,480 That don't even work with finances. 60 00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:31,320 They're not addicted to looking at the stock market, just normal 61 00:02:31,320 --> 00:02:33,360 people. And then you have Ray Dalio 62 00:02:33,360 --> 00:02:34,720 there. Who's like the most? 63 00:02:34,720 --> 00:02:37,920 Bearish of all the bears. Sitting there just blasting them 64 00:02:37,920 --> 00:02:41,120 with all this incredibly frightening information, Ray. 65 00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:44,480 Dalio I've criticized. Many times as being a mega bear, 66 00:02:44,480 --> 00:02:47,240 a continual bear, he's persistently negative and 67 00:02:47,240 --> 00:02:49,560 concerned and worrying about one thing or the next. 68 00:02:49,960 --> 00:02:52,640 Well, this made it the prime time and this. 69 00:02:52,640 --> 00:02:55,840 Interview went hyper viral. Getting multiple millions of 70 00:02:55,840 --> 00:02:58,440 views just on YouTube. So we're going to be looking 71 00:02:58,440 --> 00:03:00,240 over some of the key arguments he makes. 72 00:03:00,560 --> 00:03:02,480 I'll be responding to some of the things he says. 73 00:03:02,760 --> 00:03:04,920 That are incredibly bearish. On this environment now to 74 00:03:04,920 --> 00:03:07,320 balance out Ray Dalio and his gloomy outlook, we also have to 75 00:03:07,320 --> 00:03:10,840 look at what Tom Lee is doing. He is much more on the bullish. 76 00:03:10,840 --> 00:03:14,440 Side always looking for. Opportunities optimistically and 77 00:03:14,440 --> 00:03:16,440 he's very constructive about what's going on. 78 00:03:16,440 --> 00:03:18,440 So we're going to get the viewpoint of both someone 79 00:03:18,440 --> 00:03:19,520 that's. Overall bearish. 80 00:03:19,520 --> 00:03:21,880 And someone that's bullish. And then finally, one of the 81 00:03:21,880 --> 00:03:23,520 most. Amazing stories I've read. 82 00:03:24,120 --> 00:03:26,720 Is that this? AI shopping app that this guy 83 00:03:26,720 --> 00:03:30,320 made promised that if you buy something from the app, it was 84 00:03:30,320 --> 00:03:32,800 the artificial intelligence going in and buying it from 85 00:03:32,800 --> 00:03:35,320 these random websites. So you could just click on 86 00:03:35,320 --> 00:03:37,840 something you want to buy, you didn't have to do anything else. 87 00:03:37,840 --> 00:03:40,200 The AI would figure it out. But in reality. 88 00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:43,400 It was all powered by. People in the Philippines, this 89 00:03:43,400 --> 00:03:44,960 is one of the most crazy stories. 90 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:47,160 That I've heard of. And it's just the state. 91 00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:50,240 We're in This story is emblematic and representative of 92 00:03:50,240 --> 00:03:51,760 the. Current state we're in, so we 93 00:03:51,760 --> 00:03:53,200 have a ton to get into in this episode. 94 00:03:53,200 --> 00:03:54,360 It's going to be an interesting one. 95 00:03:54,680 --> 00:03:56,960 Now before we jump in, just one thing I have to mention. 96 00:03:57,280 --> 00:03:59,680 You'll notice that I'm not sponsored by different 97 00:03:59,680 --> 00:04:02,480 companies. I'm not constantly plugging VPN. 98 00:04:02,480 --> 00:04:06,240 Services or audible or whatever. It may be I don't have any of 99 00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:08,560 them as sponsorships and that's an intentional choice. 100 00:04:08,560 --> 00:04:11,640 I could if I wanted to, but instead I focused on building a 101 00:04:11,640 --> 00:04:13,960 product that I think you'll actually enjoy. 102 00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:16,079 Something that I think. Offers a real value. 103 00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:20,160 To investors, that is. Qualtrum Qualtrum is $10 per 104 00:04:20,160 --> 00:04:21,760 month. And the reason that I can 105 00:04:21,760 --> 00:04:23,680 charge. Such a low price for it is I. 106 00:04:23,680 --> 00:04:26,040 Own it outright. There's no other partners, the 107 00:04:26,040 --> 00:04:27,200 team that. Works on it with me. 108 00:04:27,200 --> 00:04:30,480 Is incredibly efficient. Qualtrum costs 1/3 or 1/4 as 109 00:04:30,480 --> 00:04:32,360 much as other. Stock analysis tools and in most 110 00:04:32,360 --> 00:04:35,520 cases does way more than them. You have the insights page. 111 00:04:35,520 --> 00:04:37,840 That gives you all. The fundamentals of a company in 112 00:04:37,840 --> 00:04:38,640 Visual. Format. 113 00:04:38,640 --> 00:04:41,800 Going back 30 years you have KPI's which are key. 114 00:04:41,800 --> 00:04:44,240 Performance indicators of companies like Netflix 115 00:04:44,240 --> 00:04:46,080 subscribers. And revenue by regions? 116 00:04:46,240 --> 00:04:48,160 You have the discounted. Cash flow calculator that's 117 00:04:48,160 --> 00:04:50,480 incredibly simple to use. Earnings call transcript 118 00:04:50,480 --> 00:04:53,680 summaries, you have the earnings calendar and so on and so forth. 119 00:04:53,840 --> 00:04:55,800 It comes with a ton of functionality and it's getting 120 00:04:55,800 --> 00:04:58,760 more powerful every single day. I have my developer working on 121 00:04:58,760 --> 00:05:01,120 this all the time so. If you want to try it out. 122 00:05:01,240 --> 00:05:03,080 I think you'll love it if you join today. 123 00:05:03,080 --> 00:05:05,400 You won't pay anything until the beginning of next month. 124 00:05:05,760 --> 00:05:07,760 And if for some reason if you say, hey, Joe. 125 00:05:07,760 --> 00:05:10,200 I tried it out and I. Accidentally got charged for 126 00:05:10,200 --> 00:05:12,360 some reason. We get free refunds, no 127 00:05:12,360 --> 00:05:14,320 questions asked. We only want people that love 128 00:05:14,320 --> 00:05:15,520 it. And there's a lot of people 129 00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:16,600 that. Do we have over 9? 130 00:05:16,600 --> 00:05:18,440 1000 members on it and it continues. 131 00:05:18,440 --> 00:05:19,960 To grow. So try that. 132 00:05:19,960 --> 00:05:22,280 Out if you haven't now let's go ahead and jump into this week. 133 00:05:22,840 --> 00:05:24,800 We have starting off Monday, a company. 134 00:05:24,800 --> 00:05:27,040 That's already reported. Earnings, which is Goldman 135 00:05:27,040 --> 00:05:28,880 Sachs. For long term investors, we like 136 00:05:28,880 --> 00:05:30,360 a market that's generally not that. 137 00:05:30,360 --> 00:05:32,080 Volatile one that just. Goes up over. 138 00:05:32,080 --> 00:05:35,360 Time, but for day. Traders for short term technical 139 00:05:35,360 --> 00:05:37,920 traders. They love a volatile market. 140 00:05:38,160 --> 00:05:40,920 A surge in trading activity fueled by investor uncertainty 141 00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:43,120 about president. Trump's policies is. 142 00:05:43,120 --> 00:05:45,920 Minting money for Goldman Sachs and other big banks. 143 00:05:45,920 --> 00:05:47,880 The Wall Street. Firm joined at JP Morgan and 144 00:05:47,880 --> 00:05:50,680 Morgan Stanley. In reporting a bigger profit for 145 00:05:50,680 --> 00:05:53,080 the first quarter fueled by record revenue. 146 00:05:53,080 --> 00:05:56,840 In its equities trading and lending unit, banks have been 147 00:05:56,920 --> 00:05:59,800 raking in fees. As investors reposition their 148 00:05:59,800 --> 00:06:02,520 portfolios. In anticipation of how trump's 149 00:06:02,520 --> 00:06:06,200 trades and other economic. Policies might rattle markets, 150 00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:09,120 but in terms of anticipating the future, the commentary of the 151 00:06:09,120 --> 00:06:11,920 CEO. Is one of the ones of many 152 00:06:11,920 --> 00:06:14,120 business leaders saying. That they believe we're. 153 00:06:14,120 --> 00:06:16,720 Going into a recession. Quote The prospects of a 154 00:06:16,720 --> 00:06:19,000 recession have increased with growing. 155 00:06:19,000 --> 00:06:22,280 Indications that economic activity is slowing down around 156 00:06:22,280 --> 00:06:22,760 the. World. 157 00:06:23,200 --> 00:06:25,920 So Goldman Sachs is yet one more voice. 158 00:06:26,440 --> 00:06:28,600 To raise the red flag of a recession. 159 00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:30,840 With the Goldman Sachs CEO saying that there's a higher. 160 00:06:30,840 --> 00:06:32,520 Percentage chance of a. Recession. 161 00:06:32,840 --> 00:06:35,320 I believe this is a good point to jump into some predictions. 162 00:06:35,320 --> 00:06:37,680 I have overall. About this earnings season. 163 00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:40,400 This is broadly. Speaking across the board for 164 00:06:40,400 --> 00:06:43,840 every company, I believe there's going to be a lot of talk about 165 00:06:43,840 --> 00:06:46,280 consumer slowing down. We saw a little bit of. 166 00:06:46,280 --> 00:06:48,880 Evidence of this. Early in the year with Texas 167 00:06:48,880 --> 00:06:51,400 Roadhouse. They noted that last. 168 00:06:51,400 --> 00:06:52,560 Year things were incredibly good. 169 00:06:52,560 --> 00:06:55,240 There is strong. Growth, but going into this year 170 00:06:55,560 --> 00:06:57,240 they saw in the past just couple. 171 00:06:57,240 --> 00:06:58,880 Of weeks. Customers slow down. 172 00:06:59,240 --> 00:07:01,840 Same store sales were flat. They weren't growing. 173 00:07:02,240 --> 00:07:05,720 That was the first red flag of a consumer LED recession. 174 00:07:06,120 --> 00:07:09,400 But that was before the tariffs. Were introduced With the tariffs 175 00:07:09,400 --> 00:07:12,040 being introduced, the level of uncertainty has gone up. 176 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:14,960 In fact, we have. Some surveys here just over the 177 00:07:14,960 --> 00:07:16,920 past. Couple of weeks showing that 178 00:07:16,920 --> 00:07:20,440 consumer sentiment fell 11% in April. 179 00:07:20,800 --> 00:07:24,320 It's down 30% since December of 2024. 180 00:07:24,320 --> 00:07:27,600 Now if consumer sentiment is falling and customers don't want 181 00:07:27,600 --> 00:07:30,880 to spend money as much as they did, that's going to show up in 182 00:07:30,880 --> 00:07:33,040 the revenue of companies in their bottom line. 183 00:07:33,400 --> 00:07:35,080 So we're going to hear a lot of companies reflect. 184 00:07:35,080 --> 00:07:37,560 That a lot of. CE OS say that consumers are 185 00:07:37,560 --> 00:07:40,040 being more cautious. They're trading down a little 186 00:07:40,040 --> 00:07:42,600 bit, they're wanting to spend a little bit less money, they're 187 00:07:42,600 --> 00:07:43,800 wanting to see more. Deals. 188 00:07:44,160 --> 00:07:45,400 We're going to see a lot of commentary. 189 00:07:45,400 --> 00:07:47,640 About that with every. Company that works. 190 00:07:47,640 --> 00:07:49,560 With consumers, which is. Almost all of them. 191 00:07:50,240 --> 00:07:52,640 Then we also have this theme playing out right now and I 192 00:07:52,640 --> 00:07:54,960 believe something that's changed over just the past couple of 193 00:07:54,960 --> 00:07:56,360 weeks. Since all of this tariff. 194 00:07:56,640 --> 00:07:58,240 Policy has come into play, which is that. 195 00:07:58,240 --> 00:08:00,640 Business leaders. CE OS and investors alike have 196 00:08:00,640 --> 00:08:01,800 become aware. That A. 197 00:08:01,800 --> 00:08:04,880 Small group of people, just a few people in the United States 198 00:08:05,200 --> 00:08:08,080 can rapidly implement. Policy that dramatically changes 199 00:08:08,080 --> 00:08:10,360 the potential. Earnings of companies and their 200 00:08:10,360 --> 00:08:15,440 entire landscape these changes are dramatic, monumental changes 201 00:08:15,440 --> 00:08:19,560 to business prospects, led by someone that can do it at a whim 202 00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:22,800 without any regard to Congress, and someone that has the. 203 00:08:22,800 --> 00:08:25,560 Wherewithal to do it? And face the consequences. 204 00:08:25,840 --> 00:08:27,920 That is a change. In risk assessment, whether 205 00:08:27,920 --> 00:08:29,480 you're pro. Tariff or anti tariff. 206 00:08:29,480 --> 00:08:32,360 This new realization that only a few people can do this so 207 00:08:32,360 --> 00:08:35,240 rapidly into such a great magnitude is a new. 208 00:08:35,240 --> 00:08:37,760 Uncertainty in the market that investors will price. 209 00:08:37,760 --> 00:08:40,600 In. The market is already uncertain. 210 00:08:40,880 --> 00:08:43,360 Stocks are already. Unpredictable to some degree, 211 00:08:43,360 --> 00:08:45,960 but this new adaptation that. Investors have become aware. 212 00:08:45,960 --> 00:08:48,480 Of has raised the. Unpredictability to a whole. 213 00:08:48,480 --> 00:08:51,120 New level now CE OS are. Unsure. 214 00:08:51,200 --> 00:08:53,440 Of how much money they're going to earn over the next three 215 00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:56,160 months, of how well their business is going to do, because 216 00:08:56,160 --> 00:08:58,360 not only do they have to. Project their future growth 217 00:08:58,360 --> 00:08:59,840 based on their business performance. 218 00:09:00,160 --> 00:09:02,120 But they have to. Guess about policy. 219 00:09:02,440 --> 00:09:04,080 Of which they can't possibly know. 220 00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:07,000 They can change day-to-day. So I believe there's going to be 221 00:09:07,000 --> 00:09:09,480 a. Lot of commentary about CE, OS 222 00:09:09,480 --> 00:09:11,600 and CFO saying we just don't know. 223 00:09:11,960 --> 00:09:14,000 We have no clue what the tariff rate will be. 224 00:09:14,360 --> 00:09:17,520 But we can give some vague predictions based on what it may 225 00:09:17,520 --> 00:09:19,000 be. I think there's going to be a 226 00:09:19,000 --> 00:09:23,200 lot of guessing games, a lot of just kind of maybe it's this and 227 00:09:23,200 --> 00:09:25,880 in that case the business might do this, maybe the. 228 00:09:25,880 --> 00:09:27,640 Tariffs are lower. And it's business as? 229 00:09:27,640 --> 00:09:30,640 Usual, but either way. I think CE, OS and business 230 00:09:30,640 --> 00:09:32,560 leaders are going to be negative on the tariffs. 231 00:09:33,040 --> 00:09:35,160 They're going to mention how the cost of them are passed on to 232 00:09:35,160 --> 00:09:36,720 the consumer. They're going to mention how 233 00:09:36,720 --> 00:09:39,160 it's going to slow growth. They're going to mention how 234 00:09:39,160 --> 00:09:41,720 it's going to raise the chances of a recession. 235 00:09:41,960 --> 00:09:43,760 More than they were before the tariffs. 236 00:09:43,880 --> 00:09:46,360 I think we'll have a repeated. Theme of CE OS relaying. 237 00:09:46,360 --> 00:09:48,720 That information to investors just like the. 238 00:09:48,720 --> 00:09:52,280 CEO of Goldman Sachs did now let's go ahead and take a look 239 00:09:52,320 --> 00:09:55,240 at some of these companies individually and breakdown my 240 00:09:55,240 --> 00:09:57,160 expectations for these earnings reports. 241 00:09:57,600 --> 00:10:01,720 First of all, this week we have. A SMLASML is a stock that I have 242 00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:05,120 in the passive income portfolio so it's in my main 1 here and 243 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:07,200 it's one of the newer position currently the stock. 244 00:10:07,200 --> 00:10:09,000 Is in the red by 8. Percent. 245 00:10:09,000 --> 00:10:12,040 That's $3000 on a 42. $1000 position. 246 00:10:12,120 --> 00:10:14,560 Now stock going into the red soon after you buy it is. 247 00:10:14,560 --> 00:10:17,040 Really not a problem. In fact, if you read Peter 248 00:10:17,040 --> 00:10:17,680 Lynch's. Books. 249 00:10:17,680 --> 00:10:20,480 He talks about how. His best investments happened. 250 00:10:20,640 --> 00:10:22,960 Three years. After buying the stock, that's 251 00:10:22,960 --> 00:10:24,120 usually when he. Saw the best. 252 00:10:24,120 --> 00:10:26,880 Returns from his companies. Was three years after. 253 00:10:26,960 --> 00:10:28,720 I've owned FML for well less than a. 254 00:10:28,720 --> 00:10:30,280 Year so this. One really hasn't had a lot of 255 00:10:30,280 --> 00:10:33,360 time to grow and I'm still very optimistic about this company. 256 00:10:33,360 --> 00:10:36,240 Now if we go to the earnings calendar, ASML reports Wednesday 257 00:10:36,240 --> 00:10:38,800 before market open. We can go to Qualtrum here and 258 00:10:38,800 --> 00:10:41,280 look at the what? To watch for this gives you a 259 00:10:41,280 --> 00:10:43,040 summary of the biggest points to look. 260 00:10:43,040 --> 00:10:45,400 For for each company with ASML in. 261 00:10:45,400 --> 00:10:47,640 Particular this. Company beat on their 262 00:10:47,640 --> 00:10:51,960 expectations big time in Q4, so last quarter they had a 263 00:10:51,960 --> 00:10:52,960 monstrous. Quarter. 264 00:10:52,960 --> 00:10:55,480 It was actually incredible. We see the ASML. 265 00:10:55,480 --> 00:10:58,520 Far surpassed their. Expectations with 9.3 billion. 266 00:10:58,520 --> 00:11:00,760 Dollars of sales last. Quarter, we're going to be 267 00:11:00,760 --> 00:11:04,160 looking to see if they continue momentum or if they say things 268 00:11:04,160 --> 00:11:05,600 are going to. Slow down dramatically. 269 00:11:05,720 --> 00:11:08,320 The other thing that I'm most interested to see in terms of 270 00:11:08,360 --> 00:11:11,480 ASML is not only their commentary on what the demand 271 00:11:11,480 --> 00:11:13,240 outlook looks like. For the different. 272 00:11:13,240 --> 00:11:16,520 Chips and high end things like car chips and phone chips and 273 00:11:16,520 --> 00:11:18,440 whatnot. But I also want to see what they 274 00:11:18,440 --> 00:11:20,520 say in terms of geopolitical. Factors. 275 00:11:20,920 --> 00:11:23,560 Their business in China. How they view the tariffs. 276 00:11:23,680 --> 00:11:26,280 I want to see what they say about all of that coming into 277 00:11:26,280 --> 00:11:28,400 play. I think they'll have overall 278 00:11:28,400 --> 00:11:30,720 optimistic outlook. Investors are going to try to. 279 00:11:30,720 --> 00:11:34,640 Dissect ASML and see whether or not they can see the demand 280 00:11:34,640 --> 00:11:37,760 outlook for artificial intelligence with companies like 281 00:11:37,800 --> 00:11:41,720 NVIDIA, companies like Google, companies like Meta and Amazon 282 00:11:42,000 --> 00:11:44,200 with Asml's report. So this company. 283 00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:45,880 'S report will act like the first. 284 00:11:45,880 --> 00:11:48,200 Weathervane of what direction the AI demand? 285 00:11:48,200 --> 00:11:50,680 Looks like for. All these other companies, the 286 00:11:50,680 --> 00:11:52,240 other. Incredibly important company 287 00:11:52,240 --> 00:11:54,120 reporting. This week as TSM. 288 00:11:54,240 --> 00:11:55,640 A lot of people have asked why I. 289 00:11:55,640 --> 00:12:00,400 Invest in ASML instead of TSM, and Simply put, ASML has even 290 00:12:00,400 --> 00:12:05,400 fewer competitors than TSM does, and TSM is a highly concentrated 291 00:12:05,400 --> 00:12:08,080 monopolistic business. So that gives you an idea of how 292 00:12:08,080 --> 00:12:10,880 monopolistic ASML is. But either way, they're. 293 00:12:10,880 --> 00:12:13,800 Commentary and what investors are going to try to look at. 294 00:12:13,800 --> 00:12:15,320 Is very similar for both of these. 295 00:12:15,320 --> 00:12:18,760 Companies, they're going to look at what the demand outlook is. 296 00:12:18,960 --> 00:12:21,920 For all of these devices. Things like Tesla's and. 297 00:12:21,960 --> 00:12:25,120 Ev's chips. For smartphones and televisions, 298 00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:28,080 you name it, all of that comes through TSM. 299 00:12:28,080 --> 00:12:31,000 Based on their most recent earnings report, TSM noted that 300 00:12:31,000 --> 00:12:32,960 their AI. Accelerator revenue showed 301 00:12:32,960 --> 00:12:35,160 impressive. Growth and that they expect. 302 00:12:35,160 --> 00:12:37,280 It to double. In 2025. 303 00:12:37,280 --> 00:12:39,400 So they've already noted that this form of revenue. 304 00:12:39,400 --> 00:12:42,320 Is going to double and investors are going to see if that's still 305 00:12:42,320 --> 00:12:43,480 the plan, if that's. Still their. 306 00:12:43,480 --> 00:12:46,720 Projection, whether or not that estimate's moving upwards or 307 00:12:46,720 --> 00:12:49,160 down, are staying the same. Overall both. 308 00:12:49,160 --> 00:12:51,920 FML and TSM are. Going to be companies and 309 00:12:51,920 --> 00:12:55,080 investors look at. As the weathervane for big tech 310 00:12:55,080 --> 00:12:56,720 and other big companies, these are going. 311 00:12:56,720 --> 00:12:58,920 To be the first. Ones giving us an indication of 312 00:12:58,920 --> 00:13:00,600 what to expect now, moving on later. 313 00:13:00,600 --> 00:13:02,760 Throughout this week, we get to Thursday after market. 314 00:13:02,760 --> 00:13:07,520 Close and we have Netflix Now let's take a look at my position 315 00:13:07,520 --> 00:13:09,080 in Netflix. This company is one of the. 316 00:13:09,080 --> 00:13:11,440 Larger positions. I've held it in the story fund 317 00:13:11,440 --> 00:13:13,160 for years. I've really liked. 318 00:13:13,160 --> 00:13:16,040 This company for a long period of time and I bought more of it 319 00:13:16,040 --> 00:13:18,400 during the dip which. Really bolstered the performance 320 00:13:18,400 --> 00:13:19,360 of this. Portfolio. 321 00:13:19,640 --> 00:13:23,200 It's made-up for the majority of the games with $51,000 in the 322 00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:25,200 green. Even Amazon OR. 323 00:13:25,200 --> 00:13:28,440 Google or. Microsoft pale in comparison of 324 00:13:28,440 --> 00:13:31,120 buying Netflix during the dip. So of course, Netflix turned out 325 00:13:31,120 --> 00:13:33,520 to be. A great deal buying it in 2022 326 00:13:33,720 --> 00:13:35,640 when it was almost. $200 per share. 327 00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:37,960 The question is, what does it look like Now? 328 00:13:38,440 --> 00:13:41,400 If we look at what to expect from this company, we can take a 329 00:13:41,400 --> 00:13:44,280 look at some of the the key things to look for with Netflix. 330 00:13:44,360 --> 00:13:47,000 Netflix is executing on a lot of things at the same time. 331 00:13:47,000 --> 00:13:49,280 For example, one of them is their advertising tier. 332 00:13:49,560 --> 00:13:52,600 I want to see how many. Users or members they. 333 00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:55,400 Have on their advertising tier. Then we have their content 334 00:13:55,400 --> 00:13:57,680 spending forecast. Netflix has said that. 335 00:13:57,680 --> 00:13:59,360 They've increased their budget a lot. 336 00:13:59,600 --> 00:14:03,680 And they're increasing it to $18 billion from 16 billion. 337 00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:07,280 So they've increased the budget. By $2 billion, that's money they 338 00:14:07,280 --> 00:14:09,920 could have generated in free cash flow, but they're now 339 00:14:09,920 --> 00:14:13,000 producing more and more content. We also have big currency 340 00:14:13,000 --> 00:14:15,120 impacts on this company and their hedging strategy. 341 00:14:15,440 --> 00:14:17,480 Netflix makes over. 50% of their revenue. 342 00:14:17,480 --> 00:14:20,720 Outside of the US, so currency has a big implication on their 343 00:14:20,720 --> 00:14:24,160 earnings and we have the market penetration and price. 344 00:14:24,160 --> 00:14:27,760 Strategy. Netflix has frequently announced 345 00:14:27,760 --> 00:14:29,560 price. Increases on their membership. 346 00:14:29,920 --> 00:14:32,440 During their quarterly reports, so they'll. 347 00:14:32,440 --> 00:14:35,120 Report earnings, then they'll announce a price increase. 348 00:14:35,320 --> 00:14:36,680 They've done that over and over again. 349 00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:39,240 I don't know if they'll announce the price increase this. 350 00:14:39,240 --> 00:14:41,800 Time because they've recently. Done so, but Netflix is a. 351 00:14:41,800 --> 00:14:43,280 Company with substantial pricing. 352 00:14:43,280 --> 00:14:45,720 Power and they've leveraged. This over the past couple of 353 00:14:45,720 --> 00:14:47,160 years. Not only have they. 354 00:14:47,160 --> 00:14:49,320 Increased their budget dramatically, but they've 355 00:14:49,320 --> 00:14:51,720 increased the price of their service as their service. 356 00:14:51,880 --> 00:14:54,600 Value has grown. When I look at Netflix today and 357 00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:58,040 my assumption going into this earnings report, I still love 358 00:14:58,040 --> 00:15:00,320 the company. I still love the stock where it 359 00:15:00,320 --> 00:15:01,960 is today. It's a little bit. 360 00:15:01,960 --> 00:15:03,960 More than where I'd want. To buy it if I was first 361 00:15:03,960 --> 00:15:06,280 entering into a big position. I'd try to buy. 362 00:15:06,280 --> 00:15:09,200 It for around 730. Dollars couple 100 bucks. 363 00:15:09,200 --> 00:15:12,840 Lower than it is today, but even at today's price, I think that 364 00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:15,520 it will beat the market. And the reason why is simple. 365 00:15:15,840 --> 00:15:18,800 When investors look at valuations, they make the same 366 00:15:18,800 --> 00:15:20,720 mistakes. Over and over again. 367 00:15:21,040 --> 00:15:24,040 They look at the multiples of a company without looking at the 368 00:15:24,040 --> 00:15:26,600 growth and I see this same thing. 369 00:15:26,720 --> 00:15:29,760 Over and over again, people say it's crazy. 370 00:15:29,760 --> 00:15:32,440 That Netflix. Trades at a 30. 6 Ford multiple. 371 00:15:32,600 --> 00:15:34,600 Whenever you look at the multiple of a company, you have 372 00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:37,760 to match that with the expected growth of the company. 373 00:15:38,120 --> 00:15:41,280 For example, yes. It's true that Netflix trades at 374 00:15:41,280 --> 00:15:43,880 a 30. 6 multiple. But if we go down and look at 375 00:15:43,880 --> 00:15:47,000 the earnings growth of the company, it also adds in some 376 00:15:47,000 --> 00:15:49,560 context. Over the trailing 12 months, 377 00:15:49,840 --> 00:15:51,320 Netflix has grown their earnings per. 378 00:15:51,320 --> 00:15:56,200 Share. By 65%, so 65% growth. 379 00:15:56,320 --> 00:15:59,200 Is incredibly fast. That's three to four. 380 00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:00,840 Times the average. Of a. 381 00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:05,360 Fast growing company that's 10 times faster than the S&P 500. 382 00:16:06,000 --> 00:16:09,720 So obviously when a company is growing earnings 10 times faster 383 00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:12,360 than the S&P 500, the multiple deserves. 384 00:16:12,360 --> 00:16:14,800 To be a little higher. Netflix's earnings per. 385 00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:18,960 Share has skyrocketed over the past couple of years, so this 35 386 00:16:18,960 --> 00:16:21,520 Ford PE ratio. Could look very expensive. 387 00:16:21,520 --> 00:16:25,640 If the company grew by 6 or 7%. Earnings over the next five 388 00:16:25,640 --> 00:16:28,040 years, but my expectations for Netflix. 389 00:16:28,040 --> 00:16:29,880 Is that it's? Going to grow more in line of 390 00:16:29,880 --> 00:16:32,800 25% earnings per share growth over the next. 391 00:16:32,800 --> 00:16:35,160 Five years. If it does that, it'll still 392 00:16:35,160 --> 00:16:36,520 justify its. Valuation. 393 00:16:36,520 --> 00:16:39,000 Even with the uncertainty in today's market, I believe these 394 00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:41,040 companies will do well. I think ASML is going to have 395 00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:42,960 great earnings. I think that the company is 396 00:16:42,960 --> 00:16:45,760 undervalued. The same thing for TSM and 397 00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:48,240 Netflix. Netflix hasn't gone down as much 398 00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:49,960 because the company is not quite affected. 399 00:16:49,960 --> 00:16:52,880 By tariffs, but I also believe they're going to have very. 400 00:16:52,880 --> 00:16:54,920 Strong earnings. So my expectation going into 401 00:16:54,920 --> 00:16:58,280 this week is even with the. Overshadowing of uncertainty 402 00:16:58,440 --> 00:16:59,640 that earnings reports are going to be. 403 00:16:59,640 --> 00:17:01,080 Good. Now moving on, we get to some 404 00:17:01,080 --> 00:17:02,680 news. That I won't call. 405 00:17:02,680 --> 00:17:06,240 Shocking news, in fact, this is. Probably the most predictable. 406 00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:08,040 News that you could. Ever, ever dream of. 407 00:17:08,400 --> 00:17:11,599 And that is that Ray Dalio is making media rounds predicting 408 00:17:11,599 --> 00:17:14,359 calamity and future economic distress. 409 00:17:15,000 --> 00:17:16,960 Now saying that, Ray Dalio. Is going to predict. 410 00:17:17,240 --> 00:17:21,400 Future calamity and problems and warn about things is like saying 411 00:17:21,400 --> 00:17:25,160 that the ocean is wet. Or that the sun will rise from 412 00:17:25,160 --> 00:17:27,319 the east tomorrow. It's a prediction. 413 00:17:27,319 --> 00:17:28,960 That you can make. With a relative level. 414 00:17:28,960 --> 00:17:31,320 Of confidence. And here we have again Ray Dalio 415 00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:34,560 doing the media tours talking about what may happen in the 416 00:17:34,560 --> 00:17:36,480 future, and this one had millions of views. 417 00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:39,760 Because it had a very catchy tag that Ray Dalio predicts. 418 00:17:39,760 --> 00:17:41,640 Something worse than a recession. 419 00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:45,640 Talking about a recession, do you think it is likely that the 420 00:17:45,640 --> 00:17:48,720 United States will dip into a recession because of President 421 00:17:48,720 --> 00:17:54,000 Trump's tariffs? I think that right now we are at 422 00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:58,080 a decision making point and very close to a recession and I'm 423 00:17:58,080 --> 00:18:02,480 worried about something worse than a recession if this isn't 424 00:18:02,480 --> 00:18:05,000 handled well. A recession is 2 negative 425 00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:08,160 quarters of GDP and whether it goes slightly there. 426 00:18:08,200 --> 00:18:11,680 We always have those things. We have something that's much 427 00:18:11,680 --> 00:18:15,440 more profound. We have a breaking down of the 428 00:18:15,440 --> 00:18:17,600 monetary order. We are going to change the 429 00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:21,280 monetary order because we cannot spend the amounts of money. 430 00:18:21,280 --> 00:18:23,680 So we have that problem. And when we talk about the 431 00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:26,960 dollar and we talk about tariffs, we have that we are 432 00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:32,520 having a profound changes in our domestic order, how ruling is 433 00:18:32,520 --> 00:18:36,000 existing and we're having profound changes in the world 434 00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:38,360 order. Such times are very much like 435 00:18:38,360 --> 00:18:41,040 the 1930s. I've studied history and this 436 00:18:41,080 --> 00:18:44,800 repeats over and over again. So if you take tariffs, if you 437 00:18:44,800 --> 00:18:48,360 take debt, if you take the rising power, challenging the 438 00:18:48,360 --> 00:18:51,760 existing power, if you take those factors and look at the 439 00:18:51,760 --> 00:18:57,160 factors that those changes in the orders, the systems are 440 00:18:57,160 --> 00:19:00,360 very, very disruptive. How that's handled could produce 441 00:19:00,360 --> 00:19:02,960 something that is much worse than a recession. 442 00:19:03,120 --> 00:19:05,560 So here he uses a lot of of words. 443 00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:10,160 Like changing order monetary and managing changing order. 444 00:19:10,880 --> 00:19:14,000 It's a lot of. Euphemisms or abstractions of 445 00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:16,440 what he's really saying. When I listen to this, I think 446 00:19:16,440 --> 00:19:18,000 he's talking about changes to the US. 447 00:19:18,000 --> 00:19:20,880 Reserve currency status. Changes to how businesses are 448 00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:22,480 managed and the. Debt. 449 00:19:22,480 --> 00:19:23,840 How the debt? Is being handled. 450 00:19:24,000 --> 00:19:27,560 The budget deficit can be reduced to 3% of GDP. 451 00:19:27,560 --> 00:19:32,200 It's about it will be about 7% if things are not changed, If it 452 00:19:32,200 --> 00:19:38,200 could be reduced to about 3% of GDP and these trade deficits and 453 00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:41,720 so on are managed in the right way, this could all be managed 454 00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:44,120 very well. I believe that members of 455 00:19:44,120 --> 00:19:47,960 Congress should take the pledge, what I'll call the 3% pledge, 456 00:19:48,320 --> 00:19:51,520 that in one way or another that they will get that budget 457 00:19:51,520 --> 00:19:54,960 deficit down to that number. If they don't, we're going to 458 00:19:54,960 --> 00:19:59,480 have a supply demand problem for debt at the same time as we have 459 00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:02,160 these other problems. And the results of that will be 460 00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:05,760 worse than a normal recession. He's saying this lightly. 461 00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:09,400 What he's talking about as the US literally going bankrupt, 462 00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:12,520 where the interest rate on the US debt becomes so expensive 463 00:20:12,760 --> 00:20:13,880 that. Even if we raise. 464 00:20:13,880 --> 00:20:16,960 Taxes, even if we try to. Tackle it we can't pay for. 465 00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:20,560 It, and the fact that we can't pay for it, means that taking 466 00:20:20,560 --> 00:20:21,360 out. Future debt. 467 00:20:21,360 --> 00:20:24,320 Becomes even more expensive. Because investors don't want to 468 00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:26,160 buy the US debt. Because the credibility goes 469 00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:28,160 down. This is a vicious circle. 470 00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:31,520 This is what the government dramatically needs to avoid, and 471 00:20:31,520 --> 00:20:34,480 in this concern, I share it. Wholly with Ray Dalio. 472 00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:36,840 I think that the US needs to get the budget under control. 473 00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:38,080 I think they need to get it down. 474 00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:40,200 To 3% of. GDP he talks. 475 00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:43,520 About how Congress. Should make a pledge to do this, 476 00:20:44,200 --> 00:20:47,640 but Congress has the opposite incentive of controlling the 477 00:20:47,640 --> 00:20:49,880 debt. Congress's incentive. 478 00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:52,840 For themselves, which everybody? Looks out for #1 right? 479 00:20:53,080 --> 00:20:55,560 Congress's number one incentive for themselves. 480 00:20:55,920 --> 00:20:58,920 Is to get re elected. The way that they get re elected 481 00:20:58,920 --> 00:21:01,000 is by. Promising lots of goodies for 482 00:21:01,000 --> 00:21:03,520 their constituents. That you're going to get your 483 00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:05,480 your thing you want. Hair that we're going to pass a 484 00:21:05,480 --> 00:21:07,280 budget that gets the thing you want hair. 485 00:21:07,520 --> 00:21:10,640 That everybody gets the stuff. They want, nobody wants to pay 486 00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:12,360 on debt. That's not something that every 487 00:21:12,360 --> 00:21:15,880 constituent is calling in and saying, hey, did we pay down the 488 00:21:15,880 --> 00:21:19,080 debt today? That's not a popular item, but 489 00:21:19,080 --> 00:21:21,160 that's exactly what we need to be focused on. 490 00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:23,760 When would Congress ever agree to a rule like that? 491 00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:25,600 It goes against their first incentive. 492 00:21:25,760 --> 00:21:27,240 Which is to protect. Themselves. 493 00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:30,040 Ray Dalio O'Hare realizes. He's on an everyday show with 494 00:21:30,040 --> 00:21:32,440 normal people watching this, so again he uses. 495 00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:34,400 A lot of light. Terms and euphemisms. 496 00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:37,880 And he tries to lightly explain that owning someone else's debt 497 00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:40,480 is only an asset. If they have the ability to pay 498 00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:42,760 it back. The value of money. 499 00:21:43,120 --> 00:21:46,320 What is a store hold of wealth that is a bond. 500 00:21:46,800 --> 00:21:49,800 In other words, one man's debt is another man's assets, 501 00:21:49,840 --> 00:21:52,600 bondholders. And so we're going to be in a 502 00:21:52,600 --> 00:21:57,840 situation where if that store hold of wealth is in jeopardy 503 00:21:58,080 --> 00:22:01,600 because there's too much supply and demand and so on, and we 504 00:22:01,600 --> 00:22:05,840 have a monetary inflation, we will have great disruptions. 505 00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:09,640 And that that could be like the breakdown of monetary System 71. 506 00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:13,040 It could be like 2008. It's going to be very severe. 507 00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:16,720 I think it could be more severe than those imagine if we have 508 00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:21,720 have a downturn politically and and and international conflict. 509 00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:25,560 Very grim potential. Outlook from Ray Dalio Ray Dalio 510 00:22:25,560 --> 00:22:27,280 gives these. Warnings that always get a lot 511 00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:29,600 of attention and a lot of media just like any other. 512 00:22:29,600 --> 00:22:31,920 Predictions of calamity. And one of the things that. 513 00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:35,000 These hosts always do. Like this one does here is she 514 00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:37,640 mentions that. This is the guy that accurately 515 00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:41,840 predicted the two. 1007 financial crisis and while it's 516 00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:43,600 true. That Ray Dalio predicted that. 517 00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:45,520 They don't. Mention that he also predicted 518 00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:49,040 20 different crises before and. After that didn't happen. 519 00:22:49,120 --> 00:22:50,840 Overall, his accuracy in predicting. 520 00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:53,160 Economic calamity is incredibly. Poor. 521 00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:56,840 He almost always is wrong. He rarely ever gets it right. 522 00:22:57,120 --> 00:22:58,880 He's the definition of the clock. 523 00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:01,800 That's broken. That's right, twice a day if a 524 00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:04,360 clock is. Broken and says it's. 6:30 that. 525 00:23:04,360 --> 00:23:06,840 Clock is going to be wrong almost all the time. 526 00:23:07,120 --> 00:23:09,240 Until it's 6:30. And then it will be right for 527 00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:11,360 one minute and that. Is Ray Dalio. 528 00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:13,560 He's almost always. Wrong with his predictions. 529 00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:15,120 You can look. Over his entire history. 530 00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:17,800 And when he finally has something bad happen in the 531 00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:19,480 economy, that's when he's finally. 532 00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:21,680 Right. But overall, these predictions 533 00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:23,600 are highly theoretical. There's a lot. 534 00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:27,040 That the US can do to avoid these type of calamities and 535 00:23:27,120 --> 00:23:28,600 talking about them this way, I think. 536 00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:30,560 Overall is very good. To sell books. 537 00:23:30,840 --> 00:23:33,400 Very good to get. Clicks very good to make it seem 538 00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:36,480 like you can see the future. And you have a bigger thought 539 00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:38,800 process. On this, but in most cases it's 540 00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:42,360 entirely unhelpful to investors in most cases. 541 00:23:42,360 --> 00:23:45,880 The market goes up. In most cases, it's good to stay 542 00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:47,920 invested all the time if we look. 543 00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:49,960 At an investor that's the opposite of Ray Dalio. 544 00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:53,640 Someone that is optimistic, advocates staying in the market, 545 00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:56,800 advocates looking at things through the lens of repair and 546 00:23:56,800 --> 00:23:58,760 recovery. That is Tom Lee. 547 00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:03,040 The reason that Tom Lee is more. Reliable than Ray Dalio is 548 00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:05,920 because statistically. Being in the market all the 549 00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:07,680 time. Is the more accurate. 550 00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:09,840 And better choice than being concerned. 551 00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:12,280 About stocks all the. Time staying out of the market 552 00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:15,000 and trying to predict when there's a market crash coming. 553 00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:17,560 So Tom Lee, statistically. By his. 554 00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:20,240 Bullish stance by always being optimistic. 555 00:24:20,600 --> 00:24:23,080 Will be far more. Correct than Ray Dalio. 556 00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:25,920 He's kind of the inverse of the broken clock. 557 00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:28,960 Tom Lee will be correct. Almost all the time. 558 00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:31,800 Except for a few. So here Tom Lee is once again 559 00:24:31,800 --> 00:24:35,160 talking constructively about how he thinks now is a good time to 560 00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:38,200 buy I. I do think markets are getting a 561 00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:40,760 little desensitized. What I mean, yeah, yeah. 562 00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:46,720 And, and I think part of it is if someone had an investor hat 563 00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:50,720 on, not tactical hat, you know, really good opportunities are 564 00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:53,600 emerging because the number of stocks below the 200 day moving 565 00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:57,360 average hit, it was like 15% historically. 566 00:24:57,360 --> 00:25:00,720 That's a, a strong buy signal. I mean, you're going to find a 567 00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:03,760 lot of bargains there. And the VIX got above 50 and it, 568 00:25:04,160 --> 00:25:08,200 it almost always pays you to buy the stocks when VIX is above 50. 569 00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:13,360 But in the near term, it is a, it's a roller coaster. 570 00:25:13,360 --> 00:25:17,640 I mean, it does feel like we're having a lot of zigs and zags 571 00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:22,720 and even over the weekend. But to me, I think everything 572 00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:26,320 that happened over weekend, including the Sunday, further 573 00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:29,320 explanations, all of this is still unequivocally positive for 574 00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:31,560 stocks. Tom Lee is still undeterred from 575 00:25:31,560 --> 00:25:33,560 owning stocks. He also comments very 576 00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:36,080 specifically on this whole. Idea that people are. 577 00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:38,480 Abandoning the. US that people. 578 00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:40,280 Don't want to do business with the USI? 579 00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:43,360 Think that is the narrative at the moment that you know, US 580 00:25:43,360 --> 00:25:46,400 exceptionalism is over and people are selling treasuries 581 00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:51,080 and dollars to buy other assets. But I'm I'm not in that camp 582 00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:55,720 that it's sustainable because unless weaker dollar and higher 583 00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:59,360 yield suddenly makes the best companies in the world outside 584 00:25:59,360 --> 00:26:02,960 the US, you know, the best and the most important companies in 585 00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:04,480 the world are American companies. 586 00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:08,680 They've produced the best shareholder returns and you know 587 00:26:08,680 --> 00:26:13,240 if you look at the S&P, 40% of the returns of the S&P come from 588 00:26:13,240 --> 00:26:16,280 new companies every 10 years. Is there going to be suddenly 589 00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:19,560 the best new company coming out of Europe instead of the US 590 00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:21,640 because of the dollar? And I doubt it. 591 00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:23,480 And I think U.S. companies are going to adapt. 592 00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:26,840 Tom Lee's logic behind still staying in the US with your 593 00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:28,720 investments makes perfect sense to me. 594 00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:33,160 I agree with it 100% that right now in the world the US has the 595 00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:34,640 best companies. That's almost. 596 00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:36,640 Not even a point to argue. Look. 597 00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:38,520 At all the best companies that give the best shareholder 598 00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:42,640 returns, they're in the United States and even in the future, 599 00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:45,120 you can look. At where risk capital is where 600 00:26:45,120 --> 00:26:47,320 there's investor appetite, where there's people. 601 00:26:47,320 --> 00:26:49,920 Starting new businesses. Entrepreneurs all these 602 00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:51,800 different. Software companies and AI 603 00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:54,720 companies most of that is happening still in the United 604 00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:58,080 states another way of looking at this is Tom Lee's basically 605 00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:00,720 arguing that the United. States if. 606 00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:04,120 It was like a business. It's got a very good economic 607 00:27:04,120 --> 00:27:09,200 Moat, It's a very good quality business and it can endure even 608 00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:10,800 if a leadership. Is doing some crazy. 609 00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:13,640 Things, even if they're just shooting from the hip from time 610 00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:15,480 to time, the business will endure. 611 00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:17,200 So I agree, and my money's going to stay. 612 00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:19,520 Where I believe we have. The best companies in the world, 613 00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:21,360 and most of those are in the United States. 614 00:27:21,560 --> 00:27:23,680 Now, finally, we get to a news. Story here that's just 615 00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:26,320 incredible here's just the title of it the. 616 00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:29,000 AI shopping app found to be. Actually powered by. 617 00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:32,680 Philippines call center workers Now that understates what's 618 00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:36,400 going on a fintech founder in the US has been charged with 619 00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:39,320 fraud after it was. Found that his artificial. 620 00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:43,000 Intelligence Shopping app relied heavily on the Philippines call 621 00:27:43,000 --> 00:27:46,440 center employees to complete the purchases manually. 622 00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:47,760 So the app was. Reportedly. 623 00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:51,520 Marketed as a universal shopping cart app that simplified online 624 00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:54,640 shopping by AI by enabling its. Users to skip. 625 00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:57,920 The checkout on retail. Websites by reducing purchases. 626 00:27:57,920 --> 00:28:01,160 To a single tap. For example, if someone wanted 627 00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:02,960 to buy a their sneakers for instance. 628 00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:05,880 They could just buy the. Sneakers by opening the Nate app 629 00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:07,840 and clicking Buy. The. 630 00:28:07,880 --> 00:28:11,080 App claimed it would take. Care of the remainder of the 631 00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:13,560 checkout. Using AI such as quote 632 00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:15,280 selecting. The appropriate. 633 00:28:15,280 --> 00:28:17,560 Size, entering billing information and shipping 634 00:28:17,560 --> 00:28:19,800 information and confirming the purchase. 635 00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:22,600 So that was the whole premise of this app is. 636 00:28:22,600 --> 00:28:24,920 That you you basically. Have an app, you go in and you 637 00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:26,880 just click on an item, click buy. 638 00:28:27,120 --> 00:28:29,200 You don't have to go through any of the sizing or checkout 639 00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:30,960 options. Artificial intelligence would do 640 00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:32,360 that. For you in truth. 641 00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:36,600 Nate relied heavily on teams of human workers, primarily located 642 00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:40,200 overseas, to manually process transactions in secret. 643 00:28:40,440 --> 00:28:42,320 Mimicking what? Users believed was. 644 00:28:42,320 --> 00:28:45,560 Being done by automation. Hundreds of contractors or 645 00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:47,720 quote. Purchasing assistance in the 646 00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:49,680 Philippines and call. Centers were. 647 00:28:49,680 --> 00:28:51,560 Working to manually. Complete the purchases. 648 00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:54,520 Occurring over the Nate app, the investigation found now the 649 00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:56,600 Department of. Justice tried to estimate. 650 00:28:56,640 --> 00:28:59,040 How much of the actual? Purchases were completed by 651 00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:01,080 Artificial. Intelligence and not humans. 652 00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:04,400 And they said it was around 0%. I would love. 653 00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:08,120 To just ask this. Founder What was the plan here? 654 00:29:08,200 --> 00:29:09,680 When did he? Realize this was. 655 00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:11,600 All going to cave in. He couldn't have fully. 656 00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:14,720 Expected it to work out to. Promise to people was. 657 00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:17,680 All driven by artificial. Intelligence while secretly 658 00:29:17,680 --> 00:29:19,560 having the Philippines complete the. 659 00:29:19,560 --> 00:29:22,280 Purchases. At some point he had a no. 660 00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:24,400 He was way in over his head and the. 661 00:29:24,440 --> 00:29:26,200 The ruse was up, the the jig was up. 662 00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:27,440 This isn't going to work forever. 663 00:29:27,840 --> 00:29:30,720 I'd love to know when that was. So hopefully we get some type of 664 00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:33,520 documentary, something small that explains this in greater 665 00:29:33,520 --> 00:29:35,880 detail, because I'd. Love to get the bigger story. 666 00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:38,000 Behind it, but that's going to be for this episode. 667 00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:39,720 Hope you enjoyed seeing the next one.