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Google stock is on a tear after 
having their big I/O conference.

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This is where they talked about 
what do you know, artificial 

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intelligence. 
And they mentioned artificial 

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intelligence, more than just a 
few times Ai and AI Ki KI 

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generative. 
A, i generated way I can really 

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be ia. 
Ia, ia, ia, ia, ia, ia, ia, ia, 

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ia, ia, ia uses AI to bring 
aiaiai. 

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This was all about Ai and Google
showing that they're not going 

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to let Microsoft. 
Soft, run away with the AI crown

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and you have to give it to him. 
It's working. 

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Google stock is up to 117 
dollars per share. 

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It's actually gone on a great 
run after this conference. 

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Year-to-date, Google stock is up
31% and even this week, it's up 

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another eight point six. 
Seven percent after mentioning 

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aii over 100 times. 
It's a lot of investors are once

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again, excited about Google, but
we're going to be looking at 

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this conference and highlighting
some of the creative ways that 

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Google's wrapping AI, into all 
their various products. 

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Some of them seem pretty cool. 
Now we also Have Disney at the 

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same time it reporting their 
earnings. 

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And investors did not take it 
too well even though Disney beat

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their revenue and earnings per 
share estimate, they lost 

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subscribers for the second 
consecutive quarter in a row 

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they shed more subscribers and 
Disney as a company is facing a 

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lot of complex operational 
challenges. 

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So we're going to be going 
through looking at their 

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earnings report, seeing if we 
can make sense of it and we'll 

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be looking at some interviews 
where we can get some context to

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some of the challenges Disney 
faces. 

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So as always, we have a lot to 
jump into in this episode a lot 

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too. 
Cover, if you haven't already, 

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make sure you subscribe to the 
channel and you hit the Bell 

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icon. 
That is completely free and you 

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get alerts whenever I upload. 
Now, what we're looking at here 

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is the passive income portfolio.
This is my primary investment 

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account that I've tracked 
publicly. 

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So you can look back at any 
historical video on this 

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channel. 
What I plan on doing is trying 

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to beat the market by 
concentrating into a couple 

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positions companies that I 
think, will compound at a rate 

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faster than the market average. 
And we can take Google as an 

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example here, a lot of investors
might be lost and trying Age of 

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the intrinsic value of a 
company. 

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But there's a couple indicators 
that I think are a very good 

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representation of it. 
The first thing is the revenue 

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of the company. 
Generally speaking, the more 

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Revenue accompanied has, the 
more, the intrinsic value goes 

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up. 
Pretty basic as Google has grown

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its Revenue. 
The intrinsic value has also 

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grown of the company, but 
revenue is in and of itself. 

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Not the most important thing 
because revenue is not a 

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measurement of profitability. 
Earnings per share is a 

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measurement of ability. 
The EPS of a company is a great 

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indicator of the intrinsic, 
value of a company, as Google's 

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earnings per share have also 
gone up the intrinsic value of 

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the company has gone up. 
We look at the earnings per 

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share last year and they were 
four dollars and 59 cents per 

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share. 
Compared to back to 2002 when it

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was only four pennies. 
When a company goes from four, 

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pennies in EPS to over $4, the 
intrinsic value of the company 

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has grown but I believe even 
better than the revenue and 

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earnings per share is looking at
the cash flows of Company the 

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best indicator over all of 
looking at the intrinsic value. 

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Growth of a company is their 
free cash flow per share, 

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netting out there. 
Stock-based compensation per 

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share, I call this the adjusted 
free cash flow per share, and 

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what we see is intrinsic value 
growth over time of these, great

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companies with Google, we see a 
similar Trend here. 

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They've gone from eight cents 
and free cash flow per share to 

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last you're having three dollars
and 11 cents in adjusted free 

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cash flow per share, that is an 
incredible compounding. 

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In the past five years, they've 
grown their adjusted free cash 

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flow per share at a rate of 
twenty one point five, nine 

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percent. 
And keep in mind the adjusted 

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free cash flow factors in the 
dilution through stock-based 

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compensation. 
So even with Google being a 

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highly dilute of company issuing
a lot of stock-based 

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compensation for their employees
it's still growing its cash 

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flows at an incredible rate over
20% per year. 

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So although I don't currently 
hold a Google in the passive 

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income portfolio, I do have a 
small holding Of it in my growth

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portfolio and Google has 
remained a company that I've 

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been continually bullish on. 
Now. 

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Let's go ahead and look at some 
of the things that Google has 

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been up to, they release this 
big I/O conference where they 

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really hammered down. 
All the AI Integrations they're 

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doing and we know right now that
AI is both a very real thing, 

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but it's also a very common 
buzzword, every companies 

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wanting to get in on this AI 
gravy train. 

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So, let's see if what Google is 
doing is actually real. 

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The first thing that they 
mention is using AI in Gmail 

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interface. 2017, we launched 
smart reply, short responses, 

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you could select with just one, 
click next game, smart compose, 

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which offered writing 
suggestions as you type. 

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You remember this in Gmail, 
right? 

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Where you start typing the 
sentence and then it fills it in

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with a white text. 
It is so accurate, a lot of 

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times I'm, I'm typing an email 
and I'll be typing halfway 

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through a sentence and it will 
know exactly what I'm going to 

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type. 
So, I just hit Tab and fill in 

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the rest of it. 
Some cases, I'll change it. 

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But this is a feature that I've 
used many times, they've been 

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used in workspace or 480 billion
times in the past year alone, 

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consider the vastness of 
Google's reach. 

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I say I've used this feature a 
number of times and then they 

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mentioned that it's been used 
over 180 billion times in the 

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last year alone. 
This is the scale that Google 

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works at every single thing they
do every feature. 

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They push, they have to think of
it in terms of tens of billions 

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of uses. 
And now that the Much more 

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powerful generator model. 
We are taking the next step in 

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Gmail with help me, right? 
Let's say, you got this email 

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that your flight was canceled, 
the airline has sent a voucher, 

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but what you really want is a 
full refund, you could reply and

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use help me right? 
Just type in the prompt of what 

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you want, an email to ask for a 
full refund hit, create and a 

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full draft appears. 
As you can see, it conveniently 

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pulled in flight details from 
the previous email. 

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So, we have prompt generated 
text here. 

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You say you want it to draft 
this email and then it does its 

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initial draft. 
This is basically what barred 

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and chat GPT do. 
So they're just integrating that

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same Tech into the emails but 
the way that they do it is 

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really intelligent. 
Look at where they take it from 

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here and it looks pretty close 
to what you want to send. 

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Maybe you want to refine it 
further. 

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In this case, a more elaborate 
email my increase the chances of

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getting the refund that's got to
feel good for Sundar. 

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He's been he's been having a 
tough time getting bullied 

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around with Microsoft for a bit 
and having having an audience 

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reaction where they're clapping 
and he's releasing this great 

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feature. 
It's got to be a good feeling. 

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I will say I agree with the 
audience here. 

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I think that this is an 
incredibly powerful feature and 

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not only that but I also think 
it's practical a lot of the 

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Things that people working in 
Tech, think is cool, is 

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sometimes not the most practical
stuff. 

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It's really deep integrated 
stuff that not many people are 

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going to be able to use and it's
not really that practical but 

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the way that they've implemented
this seems very very easy to use

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and very practical having it be 
able to elaborate in email is an

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incredible feature. 
One of the biggest problems in 

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email or any text-based. 
Communication is you lactone, 

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you lack context? 
You're too direct with an email,

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it can come off as rude. 
So having a button to elaborate 

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the text and recreate it in 
different ways. 

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Puts you in the role of 
reviewing, the email over 

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viewing it and seeing if it 
relays the proper tone and 

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context more than actually 
taking time, to construct the 

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email and I can't stress this 
point enough of practicality and

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ease of use a better feature. 
A superior feature may not have 

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as much success because it's 
difficult to use. 

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It's more complex and it's more 
confusing. 

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So, every Ingle thing they do 
has to be simple and easy to 

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understand but I think once 
again they nailed this aspect of

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it, even if the text generation 
isn't the best and it's not 

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quite as good as chat GPT, the 
fact that it's so easy to use. 

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And it's already integrated into
email creates a moat. 

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That's very difficult to beat 
four other competitors outside 

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of tech and investing culture. 
A lot of people aren't familiar 

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with AI to this level of it. 
And I think this is going to be 

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a little bit of a shock to a lot
of people that use email 

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day-to-day. 
Now, the next thing they go over

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is Maps. 
Google is incompetent. 

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Titian, with apple over Maps. 
Apple used to be way behind 

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Google, but they've really 
caught up over the past couple 

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of years so we can look at what 
Google's doing to try to race 

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ahead since the early days of 
street view, a is stitched 

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together, billions of panoramic 
images so people can explore the

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world from their device. 
At last year's I/O we introduced

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immersive view which uses AI to 
create a high-fidelity 

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representation of a place. 
So you can experience it before 

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you visit Now, we are expanding 
that same technology to do. 

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What Maps does best help you get
where you want to go? 

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Google Maps, provides 20 billion
kilometers of directions every 

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day. 
That's a lot of trips, imagine 

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if he could see your whole trip 
in advance with immersive you 

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for routes, now you can whether 
you're walking cycling or 

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driving. 
So the calling this immersive 

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view for routes and it basically
takes you on a journey of The 

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route that you've outlined 
before even gone through that 

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route click on immersive you for
out and it's an entirely new way

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to look at my journey. 
I can zoom in to get an 

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incredible bird's eye view of 
the Rye and and as we turn we 

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get onto a great bike path. 
It looks like it's going to be a

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beautiful dry. 
This isn't something that's 

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going to be available in all of 
Google Maps, it's limited to 15 

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cities by the end of this year. 
So the seems like something very

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specific to highly concentrated 
dense areas where there's a huge

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population. 
You're probably not going to be 

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able to do this across the 
country. 

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Now the next big thing that 
Sundar goes over is in Google 

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photos. 
And I must say, when I was 

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watching this part of the 
presentation, I was thinking 

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about Adobe. 
I was thinking about Photoshop 

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and photo manipulation, a lot of
what a dhobi cells is tools to 

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manipulate photos in different 
ways. 

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And it seems like Google's 
cutting into adobe's moat a 

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little bit here with their 
updates to Google photo. 

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In fact, it seems like they 
might be cutting into their most

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significantly, but let me know 
if you agree. 

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We introduced it at I/O in 2015,
it was one of her first AI, 

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native products, breakthroughs. 
And machine learning, made it 

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possible to search your photos. 
Things like people sunsets or 

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waterfalls. 
Of course, we want you to do 

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more than just search for those.
We also want to help you make 

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them better. 
This is a really cool feature. 

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If you have a big Library 
photos, you can type in dog and 

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will find all your pictures with
you and your dog or you can type

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in the name of someone. 
You can type in different 

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objects like this and it sorts 
the photos by whatever you're 

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searching. 
I never thought this feature cut

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into Adobe smote but the next 
part, I believe does, of course,

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we want you to do more than just
search photos. 

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We also want to help you make 
them better. 

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You can do much more with a new 
experience called Magic editor. 

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Let's have a look. 
Say, you're on a hike and you 

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stopped to take a photo in front
of a waterfall. 

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You wish you are taking you back
off for the photo. 

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00:11:43,300 --> 00:11:45,800
So let's go ahead and remove 
that back strap. 

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The photo feels a bit dark so 
you can improve the lighting. 

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And maybe you want to even get 
rid of some clouds to make it 

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feel as sunny as you remember 
it. 

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Now, if you notice from this 
photo to the previous one, a lot

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of the clouds just simply 
disappeared. 

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Here's what it looked like 
before. 

227
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Here's what it looks like. 
Now looks like a sunnier day. 

228
00:12:07,900 --> 00:12:09,900
I do have some qualms about 
this. 

229
00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:12,200
Is anything going to be real 
after. 

230
00:12:12,200 --> 00:12:14,900
This feature is launched, we're 
going to alter the weather. 

231
00:12:14,900 --> 00:12:17,900
Now, you're not even remember 
truly what the weather was like.

232
00:12:17,900 --> 00:12:20,600
When you're on vacation, I 
realize that photos are already 

233
00:12:20,600 --> 00:12:23,100
so edited that you can't really 
trust them at all, but this is 

234
00:12:23,100 --> 00:12:26,000
taking it to a whole new level 
and these alterations continue 

235
00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:29,500
on looking even closer. 
You wish you had post. 

236
00:12:29,500 --> 00:12:32,200
So it looks like you're really 
catching the water in your hand,

237
00:12:32,400 --> 00:12:34,500
no problem. 
You can adjust that. 

238
00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:45,000
I'm going to be, I'll say a 
couple years from now that I 

239
00:12:45,000 --> 00:12:48,300
grew up in a time where photos 
were real, where you took the 

240
00:12:48,300 --> 00:12:51,400
photo, it didn't look that good 
but that's what it was. 

241
00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:53,400
That was the reality of the 
situation. 

242
00:12:53,500 --> 00:12:55,800
What we're headed into now as a 
world where you can't really 

243
00:12:55,800 --> 00:12:59,700
trust what you see that pattern,
you always want your kid at the 

244
00:12:59,700 --> 00:13:03,400
center of it all, and it looks 
like the balloons got cut off in

245
00:13:03,400 --> 00:13:06,700
this one so you can go ahead and
reposition the birthday boy 

246
00:13:07,500 --> 00:13:11,700
magic editor. 
Automatically recreates parts of

247
00:13:11,700 --> 00:13:15,300
the bench and balloons that were
not captured in the original 

248
00:13:15,300 --> 00:13:20,000
shot as a Finishing Touch. 
You can punch up the sky, it 

249
00:13:20,000 --> 00:13:22,600
changes the lighting in the rest
of the photo, so they edit 

250
00:13:22,600 --> 00:13:25,600
Fields consistent, it's truly 
magical. 

251
00:13:25,700 --> 00:13:28,100
Now, of course, this doesn't 
replace everything that adobe 

252
00:13:28,100 --> 00:13:31,600
has built, but these type of 
photo manipulation features have

253
00:13:31,600 --> 00:13:34,400
to concern them a little bit. 
A lot of what people use 

254
00:13:34,400 --> 00:13:37,800
Photoshop is simply making 
photos look better, and it looks

255
00:13:37,800 --> 00:13:40,500
like Google's recreating a lot 
of those same tools and 

256
00:13:40,500 --> 00:13:42,100
including them in their vast 
bundle. 

257
00:13:42,100 --> 00:13:43,800
Now, I'm not going to go over 
every feature that they 

258
00:13:43,800 --> 00:13:46,900
announced are, they did things 
like coding, how would I use 

259
00:13:46,900 --> 00:13:50,200
Python to generate the scholars 
mate, move in chess? 

260
00:13:50,400 --> 00:13:53,700
And as you can imagine Bard can 
now code and it can do it 

261
00:13:53,700 --> 00:13:55,300
really. 
Well, you can type in different 

262
00:13:55,300 --> 00:13:58,000
prompts or different code 
questions and it will print out 

263
00:13:58,000 --> 00:14:00,400
the proper response. 
They've integrated bar to be 

264
00:14:00,400 --> 00:14:03,200
able to have search results. 
Now linked to the web something 

265
00:14:03,200 --> 00:14:05,000
that it couldn't previously do 
barred. 

266
00:14:05,000 --> 00:14:07,800
Can now answer by showing you 
results integrated with Google 

267
00:14:07,800 --> 00:14:10,900
Maps Bar, Even in a crates with 
Excel, you can put things in 

268
00:14:10,900 --> 00:14:13,100
tabular format. 
One of the most significant 

269
00:14:13,100 --> 00:14:15,600
Integrations of this is AI into 
Google search. 

270
00:14:15,800 --> 00:14:18,500
This is the primary profit 
driver for Google. 

271
00:14:18,700 --> 00:14:21,500
So they have to get this, right?
They give an example. 

272
00:14:21,500 --> 00:14:25,000
Search here, a good bike for 
Five Mile, commute with hills in

273
00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:27,800
the a I paused snapshot. 
You'll see important 

274
00:14:27,800 --> 00:14:31,600
considerations like motor and 
battery for taking on those 

275
00:14:31,600 --> 00:14:35,100
Hills and suspension for a 
comfortable ride. 

276
00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:36,400
You'll notice how now Google 
search. 

277
00:14:36,400 --> 00:14:39,200
Lays out more information. 
There's less Direct links. 

278
00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:42,000
And there's more accompanying 
text to, give you information 

279
00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:45,000
about your search, they're using
more AI to integrate into the 

280
00:14:45,000 --> 00:14:47,000
search results themselves. 
And then throughout the rest of 

281
00:14:47,000 --> 00:14:49,900
this presentation, they talk 
about Ai and cloud and Android 

282
00:14:49,900 --> 00:14:51,700
and all the other applications 
of it. 

283
00:14:51,900 --> 00:14:55,500
They're integrating like 
Microsoft AI into every aspect 

284
00:14:55,500 --> 00:14:57,600
of their business. 
Now overall investors were 

285
00:14:57,600 --> 00:15:00,700
pleased with this presentation 
and I think it's deserved. 

286
00:15:00,700 --> 00:15:02,500
I've believed for a long period 
of time. 

287
00:15:02,700 --> 00:15:06,300
The Google has been undervalued 
the companies up, 30 percent 

288
00:15:06,300 --> 00:15:08,400
year-to-date, so it's had a 
really good run. 

289
00:15:08,700 --> 00:15:11,900
And then even over the past 
month, it's up another 8% with 

290
00:15:11,900 --> 00:15:14,400
this presentation. 
It jumped eight percent in a 

291
00:15:14,408 --> 00:15:17,100
matter of days but we can't just
look at previous recent 

292
00:15:17,100 --> 00:15:19,500
performance. 
When I look at the valuation of 

293
00:15:19,500 --> 00:15:24,600
Google, it's trading at a PE 
ratio of 17.8 that seems like a 

294
00:15:24,608 --> 00:15:27,300
very low P/E ratio for such a 
high quality company. 

295
00:15:27,600 --> 00:15:30,200
The free cash flow yield not 
counting stock-based, Compass 

296
00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:35,000
4.13 percent with stock-based 
complex closer to 3.5, which I 

297
00:15:35,000 --> 00:15:37,600
still believe is a healthy PE 
for this company. 

298
00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:42,300
So overall, I still think that 
Google has room to run, I would 

299
00:15:42,300 --> 00:15:46,100
not be surprised to see this 
company trading at $130 

300
00:15:46,100 --> 00:15:49,300
relatively soon that would put 
the company at around a 20 PE 

301
00:15:49,300 --> 00:15:51,800
ratio and a little bit lower 
than a four percent free cash 

302
00:15:51,800 --> 00:15:53,500
flow yield. 
Both of them would seem 

303
00:15:53,500 --> 00:15:56,000
completely reasonable. 
So in my opinion I still think 

304
00:15:56,000 --> 00:15:58,200
that Google's undervalued. 
I think it's too good for where 

305
00:15:58,200 --> 00:16:00,300
its trading and I think it still
has more room to run. 

306
00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:02,800
Now, moving on from Google, we 
have to talk about Disney here 

307
00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:04,900
for a minute. 
This company is going through a 

308
00:16:04,900 --> 00:16:05,600
very rough. 
Patch. 

309
00:16:06,400 --> 00:16:07,800
Investors are concerned about 
it. 

310
00:16:07,800 --> 00:16:10,500
I know a lot of People are 
invested in this company because

311
00:16:10,500 --> 00:16:13,100
it's such a huge consumer facing
company. 

312
00:16:13,200 --> 00:16:16,000
It really seems almost 
impossible for such a massive 

313
00:16:16,000 --> 00:16:18,500
successful company to be a poor 
investment. 

314
00:16:18,700 --> 00:16:20,500
Let's go ahead and take a look 
at what happened here in the 

315
00:16:20,508 --> 00:16:23,600
last quarter. 
Disney streaming losses improve 

316
00:16:23,700 --> 00:16:27,600
even as subscriber numbers 
decline investors like to focus 

317
00:16:27,600 --> 00:16:31,100
on subscriber numbers, even when
they should be focusing on the 

318
00:16:31,100 --> 00:16:34,000
losses. 
So financially the streaming 

319
00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:36,500
losses have been better year 
over year which is an 

320
00:16:36,500 --> 00:16:38,400
improvement. 
But the big problem here is that

321
00:16:38,500 --> 00:16:41,300
At Disney dropped a lot of 
subscribers outside of the US. 

322
00:16:41,300 --> 00:16:44,100
And in the u.s. we have the data
right here, Wall Street 

323
00:16:44,100 --> 00:16:46,600
expected, Disney plus 
subscriptions to grow less than 

324
00:16:46,600 --> 00:16:51,800
one percent, during the quarter 
and reach 163 million, 170,000 

325
00:16:51,800 --> 00:16:54,700
users. 
However, the service saw a 2% 

326
00:16:54,700 --> 00:16:58,500
decline in membership following 
to 150 7.8 million. 

327
00:16:58,600 --> 00:16:59,900
Now, here's the caveat with 
that. 

328
00:16:59,900 --> 00:17:02,400
And this is important context. 
The huge majority of those 

329
00:17:02,400 --> 00:17:06,099
losses came with Disney plus 
India, which is Disney, plus is 

330
00:17:06,099 --> 00:17:10,800
hot star service the India. 
Fibers are worth far far less 

331
00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:13,500
than us subscribers. 
So, while us subscribers are 

332
00:17:13,500 --> 00:17:16,099
paying somewhere around seven or
eight dollars per month, the 

333
00:17:16,099 --> 00:17:19,400
India subscribers were only 
paying a dollar or less and the 

334
00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:22,500
profit margins were terrible. 
So they lost a lot of 

335
00:17:22,500 --> 00:17:25,400
subscribers that were far less 
valuable to the company. 

336
00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:30,500
But even so they also lost 
600,000 subscribers in the US 

337
00:17:30,500 --> 00:17:32,400
and Canada. 
And those are valuable 

338
00:17:32,400 --> 00:17:34,300
subscribers. 
So, no matter which way you 

339
00:17:34,300 --> 00:17:37,400
slice it, in terms of total 
subscriber gain and loss, this 

340
00:17:37,400 --> 00:17:40,000
wasn't good lose. 
A lot of low value subscribers 

341
00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:42,400
isn't the worst thing in the 
world but they also lost 

342
00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:44,400
valuable subscribers in the u.s.
now. 

343
00:17:44,400 --> 00:17:48,600
It wasn't all bad news. 
Disney posted a loss of 659 

344
00:17:48,600 --> 00:17:52,100
million versus a loss of 841 
million a year before. 

345
00:17:52,300 --> 00:17:55,000
So their losses are going down, 
which means is headed in the 

346
00:17:55,000 --> 00:17:57,700
right direction and revenue. 
Overall, for their 

347
00:17:57,700 --> 00:18:02,400
subscribership Rose, 12% 25.5, 1
billion, meaning that even 

348
00:18:02,400 --> 00:18:04,600
though they're losing and 
volume, they're increasing in 

349
00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:08,000
prices, so this isn't all bad, 
but it's also not optimal the 

350
00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:09,600
best. 
Of companies other ones that 

351
00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:13,700
grow in both volume and in 
price, they can grow both ways, 

352
00:18:13,900 --> 00:18:16,500
Disney grew and price but they 
didn't grow in volume. 

353
00:18:16,500 --> 00:18:18,600
Now, I want to dive in further 
to this quarter and go over the 

354
00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:20,500
report but I also want to go 
over. 

355
00:18:20,500 --> 00:18:23,600
Why I sold out of Disney. 
I sold Disney. 

356
00:18:23,700 --> 00:18:28,000
You can see right here with this
cell order at around 110 dollars

357
00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:30,600
per share. 
So just above 110 around 

358
00:18:30,600 --> 00:18:34,100
February, 9th of this year. 
So, this is the area that I sold

359
00:18:34,100 --> 00:18:35,600
Disney. 
It was actually the high of the 

360
00:18:35,608 --> 00:18:38,100
year so far. 
And there was a specific reason 

361
00:18:38,100 --> 00:18:41,100
that I chose I chose that date. 
This was a bounce and a rebound.

362
00:18:41,100 --> 00:18:44,400
After the activist investor 
Nelson Peltz came into the stock

363
00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:47,200
and bumped up the stock price. 
Temporarily, I thought that 

364
00:18:47,200 --> 00:18:50,400
there is a chance that this 
wouldn't last long and I'd been 

365
00:18:50,400 --> 00:18:53,000
looking for an exit to this 
company for some time. 

366
00:18:53,200 --> 00:18:56,300
So, I took advantage of Nelson. 
Peltz entering the stock, a 

367
00:18:56,300 --> 00:18:58,600
quick bounce in it to exit my 
position. 

368
00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:01,100
Now, Disney has since fallen 
down a little bit further, been 

369
00:19:01,100 --> 00:19:04,900
a very rough past five years for
this company, over the past five

370
00:19:04,900 --> 00:19:09,900
years, in total, it's down 10.8%
and Stock prices down now where 

371
00:19:09,900 --> 00:19:13,700
it was during the covid lows. 
So Disneys at a price of ninety,

372
00:19:13,700 --> 00:19:16,000
one dollars per share. 
Again, is this a phenomenal 

373
00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:18,400
company? 
A high-quality compounder on 

374
00:19:18,400 --> 00:19:21,500
sale, or is it a company that 
struggling the deserves to be 

375
00:19:21,500 --> 00:19:23,700
trading at this price? 
The first thing I want to do is 

376
00:19:23,700 --> 00:19:27,500
do an overview of how I see 
Disney's business right now and 

377
00:19:27,500 --> 00:19:31,000
the predicament that they're in.
We have a pie chart here that I 

378
00:19:31,000 --> 00:19:34,200
put together a crudely drawn pie
chart, but I think it 

379
00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:35,400
illustrates the point quite 
well. 

380
00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:39,400
Right here, we have the parks, 
the parks is a Huge part of 

381
00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:43,800
Disney and overall, the parks 
are, what's really holding this 

382
00:19:43,800 --> 00:19:46,600
operation together. 
When I look at Disney as a 

383
00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:50,700
business, the parks operation 
generate, a ton of the operating

384
00:19:50,700 --> 00:19:53,800
income, a ton of the prophets, 
and they're also incredibly 

385
00:19:53,800 --> 00:19:57,500
resilient and reliable. 
This is the cash printer of 

386
00:19:57,500 --> 00:19:59,700
Disney. 
They have the parks people. 

387
00:19:59,700 --> 00:20:01,400
Love them. 
They're always packed, and 

388
00:20:01,408 --> 00:20:03,100
they're always generating 
profits. 

389
00:20:03,600 --> 00:20:07,900
There's an issue with parks and 
the issue is is that they can 

390
00:20:07,900 --> 00:20:10,300
grow. 
A price, but they have a very 

391
00:20:10,300 --> 00:20:13,600
difficult time. 
Growing through volume Parks 

392
00:20:13,600 --> 00:20:16,200
aren't like digital software 
where you can sell to more and 

393
00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:18,400
more people. 
So, growing through volume is 

394
00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:20,000
very difficult. 
When you have a park in 

395
00:20:20,008 --> 00:20:23,700
California or Florida, you have 
that one park and then it can 

396
00:20:23,700 --> 00:20:25,200
only hold a certain amount of 
people. 

397
00:20:25,400 --> 00:20:27,900
So the only way the parks 
business can grow is through 

398
00:20:27,900 --> 00:20:30,800
price increases. 
So even though the parks are a 

399
00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:33,900
great business, it's limited in 
its growth potential because 

400
00:20:33,900 --> 00:20:37,800
they only have pricing power and
Disney has heavily leveraged 

401
00:20:37,800 --> 00:20:39,700
their pricing. 
In power in their Parks. 

402
00:20:39,900 --> 00:20:43,600
I would say that they've almost 
exhausted it if they continue to

403
00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:47,000
raise prices at the rate that 
they have, they will offend 

404
00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:49,400
their core customers. 
People will stop visiting the 

405
00:20:49,400 --> 00:20:52,500
parks because they are getting 
very expensive, almost 

406
00:20:52,500 --> 00:20:56,100
everything that Disney can 
monetize in the Parks has been 

407
00:20:56,100 --> 00:20:58,300
monetized. 
So when I look at the parks, 

408
00:20:58,300 --> 00:21:02,000
even though they're a great 
money generator, in terms of 

409
00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:05,600
growth, I don't see a lot, I 
don't see a lot of growth in 

410
00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:08,300
terms of pricing power, or in 
terms of volume. 

411
00:21:08,800 --> 00:21:11,800
To create more parks and more 
experiences takes billions of 

412
00:21:11,800 --> 00:21:14,700
dollars and years of 
development, and to raise prices

413
00:21:14,700 --> 00:21:17,000
further than now. 
I think it's very difficult, 

414
00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:19,000
especially if the economy is 
slowing down. 

415
00:21:19,300 --> 00:21:22,100
So I don't see a lot of growth 
in Parks. 

416
00:21:22,100 --> 00:21:25,600
I see as mostly a good but 
stagnant business. 

417
00:21:25,700 --> 00:21:28,900
The next largest segment we have
is linear television. 

418
00:21:28,900 --> 00:21:32,400
This makes up roughly a third of
Disney's overall revenue and 

419
00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:35,800
this part of the business is 
also a wonderful business in 

420
00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:38,800
terms of its economics. 
It has high Ian's. 

421
00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:41,600
The problem with the linear 
business is, it's in secular 

422
00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:45,200
decline every single month, they
lose hundreds of thousands. 

423
00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:49,000
If not millions of subscribers 
to cable TV, they're highly 

424
00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:50,300
profitable. 
Linear TV. 

425
00:21:50,300 --> 00:21:53,100
Business is currently in 
Decline, then we have Disney's 

426
00:21:53,100 --> 00:21:55,400
new growth Avenue which is 
streaming. 

427
00:21:55,800 --> 00:21:58,900
We have all of their various 
services like Hulu and Disney 

428
00:21:58,900 --> 00:22:02,000
plus and Disney hot star. 
We have the ESPN app. 

429
00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:06,200
So we have all the streaming 
services, this makes up over 20%

430
00:22:06,300 --> 00:22:08,400
and this aspect of their 
business is growing. 

431
00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:12,500
Both through price increases and
hopefully in the future in 

432
00:22:12,500 --> 00:22:16,000
volume last quarter, it didn't 
grow in volume. 

433
00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:19,700
So we have a situation here 
where even their good business, 

434
00:22:19,700 --> 00:22:23,500
which is supposed to be the 
growth driver of Disney is not 

435
00:22:23,500 --> 00:22:26,700
growing in volume. 
It grew in price, they raised a 

436
00:22:26,708 --> 00:22:29,900
Disney plus prices, a lot, so 
the overall Revenue went up, but

437
00:22:29,900 --> 00:22:32,600
in terms of volume, the amount 
of subscribers went down. 

438
00:22:32,600 --> 00:22:35,500
So even the story of Disney's 
growth driver which is their 

439
00:22:35,500 --> 00:22:37,500
streaming is running into a 
kink. 

440
00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:40,000
It's turning out to be a A very 
difficult business. 

441
00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:43,100
So what we're working here with 
Disney, summarized is an 

442
00:22:43,100 --> 00:22:47,000
excellent but stagnant Parks 
business, a linear TV business 

443
00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:50,500
with excellent economics. 
That's in secular decline losing

444
00:22:50,500 --> 00:22:53,700
subscribers every single month 
and then a streaming business 

445
00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:57,400
which is growing through price 
but also losing subscribers. 

446
00:22:57,400 --> 00:23:00,800
And this is what creates the 
overall story for Disney that is

447
00:23:00,900 --> 00:23:03,400
met. 
It's just not the best story. 

448
00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:06,200
What investors want are very 
clean stories where they have a 

449
00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:09,900
very clear path to growing It's 
growing intrinsic value through 

450
00:23:09,900 --> 00:23:13,400
Revenue, earnings per share and 
free cash flow per share in this

451
00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:15,600
makeup of a company. 
Doesn't provide investors with 

452
00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:17,600
that clear path. 
In fact, looking at Disney's 

453
00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:20,700
financials, we can take a simple
glance at the cash flows. 

454
00:23:20,900 --> 00:23:25,400
See, the explosion through 2012 
up to 2019 and we look at it. 

455
00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:29,500
Now back in 2022, the free cash 
flows were incredibly low. 

456
00:23:29,700 --> 00:23:33,700
A billion dollars compared to 
almost 10 billion in 2018 and 

457
00:23:33,700 --> 00:23:35,300
investors are left with that big
question. 

458
00:23:35,300 --> 00:23:38,300
Mark is Disney ever going to be 
able to get their free cash? 

459
00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:42,600
Close back up to 2018 levels, is
that even possible? 

460
00:23:42,600 --> 00:23:44,000
Now I'm not trying to bash 
Disney. 

461
00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:46,500
I think it's a great company, 
but another thing I'll mention 

462
00:23:46,700 --> 00:23:50,700
is almost every aspect of 
Disney's business has become 

463
00:23:50,700 --> 00:23:54,700
more competitive over the years,
every single part of it has more

464
00:23:54,700 --> 00:23:57,200
competition than they used to. 
Even as good as their park 

465
00:23:57,200 --> 00:24:00,000
segment is, there's other 
competitors like Universal and 

466
00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:02,400
Nintendo building. 
Super Nintendo World. 

467
00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:06,200
It may not be as good as Disney 
World, but this is competition. 

468
00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:09,300
This is Outdoor Experience. 
Around families. 

469
00:24:09,300 --> 00:24:11,800
If we take the box office and 
streaming segment, they're 

470
00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:13,900
facing significant competition 
here. 

471
00:24:14,300 --> 00:24:18,400
Disney used to be the absolute 
boss of the box office, 

472
00:24:18,700 --> 00:24:21,100
especially an animated family 
films. 

473
00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:24,300
They couldn't be beaten, but 
then Super Mario Bros, movie 

474
00:24:24,300 --> 00:24:28,000
comes around and it's a 
universal smash success having 

475
00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:30,800
over 1.1 billion dollars in 
Revenue. 

476
00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:35,400
Even Bob, Iger praised the 
Rival, on this huge achievement.

477
00:24:35,500 --> 00:24:38,200
This is Disney getting surpassed
by another competitor in their 

478
00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:41,200
On game, which is family 
animated media, even with the 

479
00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:43,900
sports segment of ESPN, they 
have another huge set of 

480
00:24:43,900 --> 00:24:47,800
competitors with big Tech, 
Amazon and apple bidding for 

481
00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:49,700
sports rights. 
So they're going up against them

482
00:24:49,700 --> 00:24:52,300
as well, no matter how you break
it down, every part of the 

483
00:24:52,300 --> 00:24:55,200
companies, facing more 
competition now than it has over

484
00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:57,200
its lifetime. 
Now, to get a second opinion on 

485
00:24:57,200 --> 00:25:00,900
this, we also have Tom Rogers 
who phoned in to CNBC to explain

486
00:25:00,900 --> 00:25:04,400
what he still believes is the 
biggest Unknown about Disney and

487
00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:09,000
these other Legacy Media 
companies and no, Needed a 

488
00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:12,500
traditional Media Company can 
tell you whether or not the 

489
00:25:12,500 --> 00:25:17,000
decline, they are going to 
suffer in terms of revenues from

490
00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:21,800
their cable channels is ever 
going to be made up by the 

491
00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:25,200
growth and contribution of their
streaming businesses. 

492
00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:29,600
They hope so they're cutting. 
Costs on the streaming side, as 

493
00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:34,100
dids, the indicated taking a 
writedown on programming costs 

494
00:25:34,100 --> 00:25:36,400
because they're going to reduce 
the amount of programming on 

495
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:40,600
their programming cost on this. 
They're streaming services but 

496
00:25:40,700 --> 00:25:45,400
that's a big unknown. 
What we what we've seen is a 

497
00:25:45,900 --> 00:25:49,400
focus away from just the number 
of Subs to everybody. 

498
00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:52,400
Now talking about the 
profitability of streaming 

499
00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:55,100
services. 
Well, we haven't seen anybody 

500
00:25:55,100 --> 00:25:59,000
stand up and yet say, and this 
is where the focus needs to go 

501
00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:03,200
is how bad is the decline going 
to be when it comes to the 

502
00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:07,000
traditional cable channels 
relative to the growth and 

503
00:26:07,000 --> 00:26:11,300
contribution? 
That we see the streaming side 

504
00:26:11,300 --> 00:26:17,000
able to make do those lines ever
cross or are we in a situation 

505
00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:21,000
where media companies will never
recover to where they were based

506
00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:24,700
on what you said the best media 
model known to man was cable? 

507
00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:27,800
I think Tom Rogers Nails. 
The biggest question here, all 

508
00:26:27,800 --> 00:26:31,100
of these Legacy Media companies 
are left with the same problem 

509
00:26:31,100 --> 00:26:34,100
of having that Decline and such 
a historically, good business. 

510
00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:36,400
Part of the reason that I sold 
out of Disney but I still remain

511
00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:38,300
invested in Netflix in my growth
portfolio. 

512
00:26:38,400 --> 00:26:41,500
Leo is because Netflix does not 
have to worry about this 

513
00:26:41,500 --> 00:26:44,800
historical cable TV business. 
That's in Decline. 

514
00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:48,200
All they have ahead of them is 
potential growth. 

515
00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:51,600
There's no part of Netflix's 
Core Business that's in Decline.

516
00:26:51,700 --> 00:26:54,500
So in terms of Disney's future 
and the stock price. 

517
00:26:54,500 --> 00:26:58,100
Right now, it's tough, It's a 
complex story. 

518
00:26:58,100 --> 00:27:00,800
And that's the reason that I'm 
not invested in the company. 

519
00:27:01,100 --> 00:27:04,200
The true answer is if I'm being 
honest is, I don't know how this

520
00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:06,300
turns out. 
I don't know if Disney will ever

521
00:27:06,300 --> 00:27:09,500
get back to $200 per share or 
how Long that will take. 

522
00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:12,300
So right now for me, Disney's in
this complex basket, it's a 

523
00:27:12,308 --> 00:27:15,300
little too hard for me to figure
out and above all. 

524
00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:18,200
What I've been looking for. 
In my company's, what I've been 

525
00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:22,500
prioritizing is predictability 
predictability in the company 

526
00:27:22,500 --> 00:27:25,900
stories, cash flows revenues 
earnings per share. 

527
00:27:26,300 --> 00:27:28,800
I'm looking for companies that 
are highly predictable on a 

528
00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:31,300
going-forward basis. 
The reason that I've invested so

529
00:27:31,300 --> 00:27:34,500
much into SP Global and 
MasterCard is I think their 

530
00:27:34,500 --> 00:27:38,200
stories are highly predictable, 
both in pricing power Revenue. 

531
00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:40,600
New growth and consistency of 
earnings. 

532
00:27:40,600 --> 00:27:43,100
It's the same reason I've made 
investments into companies like 

533
00:27:43,100 --> 00:27:45,900
Vici companies like Texas 
Roadhouse and even the 

534
00:27:45,900 --> 00:27:48,200
railroads, all of these 
companies will have some 

535
00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:51,500
fluctuations and variation and 
cyclic ality and their earnings.

536
00:27:51,800 --> 00:27:54,900
But I think in terms of overall 
their businesses, they're far 

537
00:27:54,900 --> 00:27:57,700
more predictable on a 
going-forward basis than Disney 

538
00:27:57,700 --> 00:27:59,500
right now. 
Disney's in this flux where it's

539
00:27:59,500 --> 00:28:01,600
very difficult to model out the 
future. 

540
00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:05,100
So Disney could currently be in 
a big dip and maybe outperform a

541
00:28:05,100 --> 00:28:08,200
largely in the future or the 
company could stagger. 

542
00:28:08,400 --> 00:28:12,200
Long got around the same price 
point of $100 per share for the 

543
00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:14,500
next three or four years now, 
that's going to be it for this 

544
00:28:14,500 --> 00:28:16,500
episode. 
I hope you enjoyed and if you 

545
00:28:16,500 --> 00:28:19,500
haven't already check out the 
patreon, it gives you access to 

546
00:28:19,500 --> 00:28:22,600
Quality, German sites, we've 
made significant upgrades to it.

547
00:28:22,600 --> 00:28:25,000
I'm excited for you to try it 
out, and you'll also gain access

548
00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:27,100
to the Discord Community. 
We have thousands of members. 

549
00:28:27,100 --> 00:28:29,800
There we have exclusive content,
we have lots of different 

550
00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:32,800
channels where we shoot the 
breeze and talk about stocks and

551
00:28:32,800 --> 00:28:34,400
investing. 
So if you want to join that, 

552
00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:37,300
over the weekend as well, check 
out patreon.com/crashcourse 

553
00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:38,700
Carl. 
Austin. 

554
00:28:38,408 --> 00:28:38,700
Austin.
