1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:02,560 Welcome back, everyone today on the Joseph Carlson Show. 2 00:00:02,560 --> 00:00:06,360 This is a sell American trade. According to the analysts, it's 3 00:00:06,360 --> 00:00:09,440 time to panic and sell off the best American companies, which 4 00:00:09,440 --> 00:00:11,120 is exactly what the market is doing. 5 00:00:11,440 --> 00:00:13,920 If we look at the S&P 500, the companies that are selling off 6 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,520 the worst are the biggest tech leaders in the United States. 7 00:00:17,880 --> 00:00:20,840 And of course, this sell off is happening because of, well, the 8 00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:24,000 usual suspect. President Trump has rhetoric 9 00:00:24,080 --> 00:00:26,040 that the rest of the world does not like. 10 00:00:26,280 --> 00:00:29,840 He's continually talking about Greenland and how he has plans 11 00:00:29,840 --> 00:00:32,360 for America to run and operate Greenland. 12 00:00:32,600 --> 00:00:35,320 And of course, this has caused a lot of panic in the markets, a 13 00:00:35,320 --> 00:00:38,440 lot of turmoil, a lot of people very upset at Trump, different 14 00:00:38,440 --> 00:00:41,840 world leaders posturing against him causing what could be 15 00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:45,720 another big trade war, and many people to avoid American stocks. 16 00:00:46,320 --> 00:00:49,400 Well, of course, the answer to this is not to sell America. 17 00:00:49,600 --> 00:00:51,880 It is to buy America like it's always been. 18 00:00:52,040 --> 00:00:55,120 We'll be going over this entire story and how I'm positioning My 19 00:00:55,120 --> 00:00:57,880 Portfolio as a response. We also have a ton of other news 20 00:00:57,880 --> 00:01:00,280 to get to today. For example, it's Netflix's 21 00:01:00,280 --> 00:01:01,800 earnings report. We're going to be looking at 22 00:01:01,800 --> 00:01:03,400 that. We have Duolingo, a company 23 00:01:03,400 --> 00:01:06,600 that's down nearly 70%, my biggest loser in My Portfolio by 24 00:01:06,600 --> 00:01:09,520 far, and I just bought more of it, another $5000. 25 00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:12,560 We'll be going over that by we have news that Chris Hohn, the 26 00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:17,400 legend himself, has once again destroyed the S&P 500 by only 27 00:01:17,400 --> 00:01:21,120 owning a handful of stocks. He's made more money than any 28 00:01:21,120 --> 00:01:24,520 hedge fund manager in history in a single year, shattering the 29 00:01:24,520 --> 00:01:28,920 record with $18.9 billion in gains in 2025. 30 00:01:29,200 --> 00:01:31,480 We'll be looking at what is causing this incredible 31 00:01:31,480 --> 00:01:33,600 outperformance from Chris Home. And then finally, we have the 32 00:01:33,600 --> 00:01:36,480 fail of the week, which in this case is a clip from Mr. Beast 33 00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:40,640 Games where a contestant took $1 million to eliminate a bunch of 34 00:01:40,640 --> 00:01:44,600 other contestants on his team, causing betrayal and lack of 35 00:01:44,600 --> 00:01:47,120 trust, but making them also have $1,000,000. 36 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:49,600 We'll be looking at why this is the fail a week at the end of 37 00:01:49,600 --> 00:01:51,440 this episode. So this is going to be a busy 38 00:01:51,440 --> 00:01:52,560 one. We have a ton to get to in this 39 00:01:52,560 --> 00:01:54,320 episode. And we start things off with the 40 00:01:54,320 --> 00:01:57,320 headline news, which is the fact that the markets are tanking 41 00:01:57,320 --> 00:02:00,440 today, especially the equity markets within the United States 42 00:02:00,440 --> 00:02:02,960 and especially tilting towards the biggest companies. 43 00:02:03,160 --> 00:02:05,960 So you see it across the board, the Dow Jones, the S&P 500 are 44 00:02:05,960 --> 00:02:09,440 selling off, but the Nasdaq's selling off the most, over 1 1/2 45 00:02:09,440 --> 00:02:11,840 percent on the day. The big companies like NVIDIA 46 00:02:11,840 --> 00:02:14,600 are down more than 2%, many cases 3%. 47 00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:16,960 Companies like Amazon are selling off big time. 48 00:02:17,320 --> 00:02:19,640 And this is, again, because of this trade. 49 00:02:20,040 --> 00:02:23,480 This is sell America the US dollar. 50 00:02:23,880 --> 00:02:26,280 Sell it. You have treasury prices tumble 51 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:29,280 and gold spiking. And we have different analysts 52 00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:32,280 like this one from the global policy and central banking 53 00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:36,920 strategy at Evercore ISI saying this is sell America again, with 54 00:02:36,920 --> 00:02:41,080 a much broader global risk off. Now, why is this becoming a 55 00:02:41,080 --> 00:02:43,200 trade? Why are people and analysts like 56 00:02:43,280 --> 00:02:45,920 the ones from Evercore ISI saying that this is a sell 57 00:02:45,920 --> 00:02:47,560 America trade? You may have heard President 58 00:02:47,560 --> 00:02:50,720 Trump talking about Greenland and his ambitions with it for 59 00:02:50,720 --> 00:02:52,560 some time. Here's the latest from just 60 00:02:52,560 --> 00:02:54,760 today. We have to have it. 61 00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:58,240 They have to have this done. They can't protect it. 62 00:02:58,240 --> 00:03:00,040 Denmark, they're wonderful people. 63 00:03:00,640 --> 00:03:04,560 And I know the leaders, they're very good people, but they, they 64 00:03:04,560 --> 00:03:07,640 don't even go there and, you know, because the boat went 65 00:03:07,640 --> 00:03:11,200 there 500 years ago and then left, That doesn't give you 66 00:03:11,360 --> 00:03:15,680 title to property. NATO's been warning Denmark for 67 00:03:15,680 --> 00:03:19,320 about 20 years now, longer than that, 25 years, they've been 68 00:03:19,320 --> 00:03:22,400 warning Denmark about the Russian threat. 69 00:03:22,960 --> 00:03:25,400 And it's not only Russia, it's also China. 70 00:03:25,840 --> 00:03:29,480 So we'll see what happens. But let's put it this way. 71 00:03:29,480 --> 00:03:31,640 It's going to be a very interesting Davos. 72 00:03:32,240 --> 00:03:35,000 That was Trump's introduction to Davos, talking about one of the 73 00:03:35,000 --> 00:03:38,480 most contested, polarizing things he could, which is his 74 00:03:38,480 --> 00:03:41,360 ambitions with Greenland. This followed escalating 75 00:03:41,360 --> 00:03:43,760 tensions over the territory, with Trump having launched a 76 00:03:43,760 --> 00:03:47,000 series of tariff threats, an effort to pressure Europe to 77 00:03:47,000 --> 00:03:49,080 drop its opposition to the US takeover. 78 00:03:49,080 --> 00:03:52,040 The subject is taking center stage at this week's gathering 79 00:03:52,040 --> 00:03:55,040 of political and business leaders in Davos, Switzerland. 80 00:03:55,040 --> 00:03:58,360 Now we know that Trump likes to make discussions about himself, 81 00:03:58,360 --> 00:04:00,520 or at least things that he's interested in, and he's 82 00:04:00,520 --> 00:04:02,600 accomplished that again. We have all these amazing 83 00:04:02,600 --> 00:04:05,080 business leaders going to Davos. They're going to be discussing 84 00:04:05,080 --> 00:04:08,520 their companies, artificial intelligence, technology, all 85 00:04:08,520 --> 00:04:10,000 the different things that they're doing. 86 00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:13,240 And Trump, of course, wants to talk about the subject he wants 87 00:04:13,240 --> 00:04:16,000 to talk about, which is Greenland, which is tariffs, 88 00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:20,079 which is EU s s ambitions there. And he's made this the center 89 00:04:20,079 --> 00:04:23,120 stage by continuing to build up this rhetoric leading into this 90 00:04:23,120 --> 00:04:25,240 big meeting. So of course, the markets are 91 00:04:25,240 --> 00:04:28,440 looking at this and they're deeply concerned about another 92 00:04:28,440 --> 00:04:32,320 tariff war, about another trade dispute, about tensions rising 93 00:04:32,440 --> 00:04:35,000 and partnerships being broken. Greenland has repeatedly 94 00:04:35,000 --> 00:04:37,960 rejected Trump's request to purchase the Arctic island, with 95 00:04:37,960 --> 00:04:40,760 Prime Minister Jensen Frederick Nelson saying Monday that it 96 00:04:40,760 --> 00:04:44,480 would not be pressured. And, quote, stand firm on 97 00:04:44,480 --> 00:04:47,280 dialogue, on respect and on international law. 98 00:04:47,640 --> 00:04:50,360 European officials have reportedly considered using the 99 00:04:50,360 --> 00:04:53,840 salvo of counter tariffs and other punitive economic measures 100 00:04:53,840 --> 00:04:57,120 against the US in retaliation. European officials are coming up 101 00:04:57,120 --> 00:05:00,080 with ways to hit back at Trump because they know that his 102 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:03,000 favorite tool is tariffs. This Sell America trade suggests 103 00:05:03,000 --> 00:05:06,120 that global investors will place higher risk premiums on the US 104 00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:08,720 investments. Amid fears that the US is no 105 00:05:08,720 --> 00:05:12,360 longer a reliable trading partner Following Trump's latest 106 00:05:12,360 --> 00:05:15,080 threats, some investors worry that European countries could 107 00:05:15,080 --> 00:05:18,000 dump US assets in a show of power. 108 00:05:18,200 --> 00:05:21,280 Ray Dalio also agrees with this, reiterating the point that right 109 00:05:21,280 --> 00:05:24,680 now US allies are looking to dump US assets, looking for 110 00:05:24,680 --> 00:05:27,240 different trading partners. He's in Davos talking about this 111 00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:29,520 very issue and this global change. 112 00:05:29,680 --> 00:05:34,000 Even allies do not want to hold each others debt, they prefer to 113 00:05:34,000 --> 00:05:37,840 go to a hard currency. This is logical and it's 114 00:05:37,840 --> 00:05:40,520 factual, and it's repeated throughout history. 115 00:05:40,960 --> 00:05:43,240 So Ray Dalio believes that allies of the United States will 116 00:05:43,240 --> 00:05:46,800 be less inclined to buy US assets in debt and more inclined 117 00:05:46,800 --> 00:05:49,520 to buy gold. He continues to be very bullish 118 00:05:49,520 --> 00:05:52,240 on gold with an inflamed situation between the United 119 00:05:52,240 --> 00:05:54,560 States and trading partners. The way that this is being 120 00:05:54,560 --> 00:05:58,360 framed in many cases is that this is going to cause a capital 121 00:05:58,360 --> 00:06:00,120 war. Different countries using 122 00:06:00,120 --> 00:06:02,920 different economic measures to fight between each other to try 123 00:06:02,920 --> 00:06:05,120 to gain leverage. And this is the message that Ray 124 00:06:05,120 --> 00:06:07,920 Dalio is scaring and also scaring a lot of people with 125 00:06:07,920 --> 00:06:10,360 today. So let's just look at the fact 126 00:06:10,680 --> 00:06:16,080 that on the other side of trade deficits and trade wars, there 127 00:06:16,080 --> 00:06:20,320 are capital and capital wars. Now it feels like everything 128 00:06:20,320 --> 00:06:22,880 he's saying is true. All of it seems accurate here, 129 00:06:22,880 --> 00:06:25,160 but it is the same thing that he has been saying for some time. 130 00:06:25,400 --> 00:06:29,000 For example, Ray Dalio back in 2019 had a post on LinkedIn 131 00:06:29,000 --> 00:06:32,600 called The Paradigm Shift, which is almost the exact same thing 132 00:06:32,600 --> 00:06:35,560 he's been saying just today. It's only rephrased in a few 133 00:06:35,560 --> 00:06:38,040 different ways, but Ray Dalio has been outlining this new 134 00:06:38,040 --> 00:06:41,080 global order change for at least six or seven years now. 135 00:06:41,160 --> 00:06:43,600 So what are the effects of this? Well, there's both short term 136 00:06:43,600 --> 00:06:46,360 and long term effects of this global escalation, these trade 137 00:06:46,360 --> 00:06:49,280 tensions that are impacting the markets today and well in the 138 00:06:49,280 --> 00:06:51,840 future. In My Portfolio, the effects 139 00:06:51,840 --> 00:06:53,840 right now are that the portfolio is going down. 140 00:06:53,880 --> 00:06:56,240 If I look at it on the one day, it's down 1.1%. 141 00:06:56,240 --> 00:06:59,240 We have MasterCard, which is down over a percent, S&P 142 00:06:59,240 --> 00:07:03,080 Global's down 2%, Moody's down the same into it, down 1.5, 143 00:07:03,360 --> 00:07:07,680 Equifax down 2.3. So all the global monopolistic 144 00:07:07,680 --> 00:07:10,120 companies, these duopolies, these ones that work on credit 145 00:07:10,120 --> 00:07:13,080 rating, investors are pricing in that there's going to be a fling 146 00:07:13,080 --> 00:07:15,120 of US assets. There's going to be less deals 147 00:07:15,120 --> 00:07:17,240 going forth. That's bad for the markets. 148 00:07:17,480 --> 00:07:19,440 That's being immediately priced in today. 149 00:07:19,520 --> 00:07:21,560 We have big tech holdings, ones like Google. 150 00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:24,000 This one's down 1% today. We have one from the 151 00:07:24,000 --> 00:07:27,000 Netherlands, which is one of my favorite companies, SML, which 152 00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:29,320 is down 1% today. With the rest of the market, we 153 00:07:29,320 --> 00:07:31,920 have Microsoft down 1%. We have Salesforce down just a 154 00:07:31,920 --> 00:07:33,040 bit. The only holdings in My 155 00:07:33,040 --> 00:07:35,680 Portfolio that are in the green on the day are the atypical 156 00:07:35,680 --> 00:07:38,960 ones, which is Costco here. This one's up a half a percent. 157 00:07:39,000 --> 00:07:41,800 And we have Texas Roadhouse, which is up almost a percent 158 00:07:41,800 --> 00:07:43,760 today. Texas Roadhouse has been on a 159 00:07:43,760 --> 00:07:45,880 tear recently. Then we look at the Story Fund, 160 00:07:45,880 --> 00:07:48,440 my secondary portfolio. This one's down a bit today as 161 00:07:48,440 --> 00:07:49,680 well. If we look at the one day, it's 162 00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:52,640 down 1%. We have Amazon being the biggest 163 00:07:52,640 --> 00:07:56,600 loser, down 2.23%. Netflix is actually in the green 164 00:07:56,600 --> 00:07:59,080 today going into earnings. These three are positions that I 165 00:07:59,080 --> 00:08:01,560 have in both portfolios. And then we we have Duolingo, 166 00:08:01,960 --> 00:08:04,240 which is actually in the green today by half a percent. 167 00:08:04,280 --> 00:08:07,440 So overall a decent hit to the portfolio, but this isn't any 168 00:08:07,440 --> 00:08:10,360 huge sell off by any means. It's nothing to panic for. 169 00:08:10,760 --> 00:08:13,320 When I look at the situation today and I read the news, I 170 00:08:13,320 --> 00:08:16,920 read the frustrations with trade, I read the threats and 171 00:08:16,920 --> 00:08:20,920 the tariffs and the disruptions. I read Ray Dalio once again 172 00:08:20,920 --> 00:08:23,760 talking about a new world order and how everything's different 173 00:08:24,000 --> 00:08:26,160 like he has for the past seven years. 174 00:08:26,640 --> 00:08:30,160 I come to the same belief that if the rest of the market is 175 00:08:30,160 --> 00:08:32,960 selling America, I'm going to be buying America. 176 00:08:33,280 --> 00:08:34,840 I'll be buying it every single time. 177 00:08:35,240 --> 00:08:39,000 Nothing has changed in my viewpoint of America being the 178 00:08:39,000 --> 00:08:41,280 place where alpha is going to be generated. 179 00:08:41,720 --> 00:08:45,400 I've said since the beginning of my channel back in 2019 that 180 00:08:45,400 --> 00:08:48,600 America is the place to invest. It is the best country to invest 181 00:08:48,600 --> 00:08:50,880 in by far. I don't even think it's roughly 182 00:08:50,880 --> 00:08:53,320 close to anyone. I don't think there's any close 183 00:08:53,320 --> 00:08:55,120 seconds, if I'm being honest here. 184 00:08:55,560 --> 00:08:57,640 There's a lot of great companies in Europe. 185 00:08:58,040 --> 00:09:00,080 Europe has Spotify, they have FML. 186 00:09:00,160 --> 00:09:02,080 There's great companies in Canada, there's ones like 187 00:09:02,080 --> 00:09:05,240 Brookfield, there's ones like Shopify and many others. 188 00:09:05,720 --> 00:09:08,680 But for every great company there is in a different country, 189 00:09:08,840 --> 00:09:13,120 there's like 10 to 15 to choose from in the United States, 10 to 190 00:09:13,120 --> 00:09:17,040 15 that are going to generate excess returns and greater 191 00:09:17,040 --> 00:09:19,360 earnings despite what the trade wars do. 192 00:09:19,920 --> 00:09:22,080 You can look at Amazon and this is a company that's down big 193 00:09:22,080 --> 00:09:25,560 today because of trade fairs, because tariffs, because higher 194 00:09:25,560 --> 00:09:29,920 prices, but that was the same concern that we had in April of 195 00:09:29,920 --> 00:09:33,240 2025. Remember the big tariff sell 196 00:09:33,240 --> 00:09:35,480 off? Remember what people thought at 197 00:09:35,480 --> 00:09:38,360 the time? People thought that trade was 198 00:09:38,360 --> 00:09:42,200 dead, that relationships were completely severed, that it was 199 00:09:42,200 --> 00:09:44,200 the end of American exceptionalism. 200 00:09:44,440 --> 00:09:49,160 I heard people honestly tell me in April of 2025 that this time 201 00:09:49,160 --> 00:09:52,240 it's different, that American exceptionalism is done. 202 00:09:52,560 --> 00:09:55,200 Why would you want to invest in America when they're clearly 203 00:09:55,760 --> 00:09:58,040 breaking all these relationships, when they're 204 00:09:58,040 --> 00:10:01,440 clearly isolating from the rest of the world, and when clearly 205 00:10:01,440 --> 00:10:03,760 American exceptionalism is on the demise? 206 00:10:03,840 --> 00:10:08,080 Things got so bad in April of 2025 that great investors, many 207 00:10:08,080 --> 00:10:11,160 of them that are exceptional investors, great stock pickers, 208 00:10:11,160 --> 00:10:12,600 they can do fundamental analysis. 209 00:10:12,960 --> 00:10:14,960 They begin to abandon their own thesis. 210 00:10:14,960 --> 00:10:17,040 They looked at the prices of stocks dropping. 211 00:10:17,480 --> 00:10:19,480 They thought that they're not good at picking stocks because 212 00:10:19,480 --> 00:10:23,520 they're going down now they're concerned about the world order, 213 00:10:23,520 --> 00:10:25,800 how how things are going to work out in the future. 214 00:10:26,120 --> 00:10:29,040 Everything felt really bad during that time period. 215 00:10:29,160 --> 00:10:33,080 But ironically, as per usual, looking back, that time of 216 00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:36,240 chaos, that time of doubt was the absolute best time to 217 00:10:36,240 --> 00:10:38,360 invest. The investors that bought 218 00:10:38,360 --> 00:10:41,480 America during the very time we were supposed to be scared of 219 00:10:41,480 --> 00:10:45,600 America, focused on its inevitable demise, was the exact 220 00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:48,880 time where investors earned the best risk adjusted returns in 221 00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:51,160 the future. And the investors that stayed 222 00:10:51,240 --> 00:10:54,480 level headed, that kept their holdings, that stuck to the plan 223 00:10:54,480 --> 00:10:56,560 even though they didn't know exactly how things would turn 224 00:10:56,560 --> 00:10:59,360 out, but they stuck to great companies, were rewarded 225 00:10:59,360 --> 00:11:02,200 handsomely in the end. We saw many investors do that 226 00:11:02,200 --> 00:11:06,360 with Amazon, with Google, with ASML, using all these concerns 227 00:11:06,360 --> 00:11:09,480 in the past as a time to buy. When I see headlines like this, 228 00:11:09,600 --> 00:11:12,800 this is sell America time. This is literally analysts 229 00:11:12,800 --> 00:11:14,320 telling you this is the trade now. 230 00:11:15,160 --> 00:11:17,560 I think these are the type of headlines that you are warned 231 00:11:17,560 --> 00:11:20,680 about specifically to avoid when you start investing. 232 00:11:21,000 --> 00:11:23,240 When you started investing, you're probably warned. 233 00:11:23,600 --> 00:11:26,440 You got to ignore the news. You got to ignore the daily 234 00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:28,080 volatility. You got to look at your 235 00:11:28,240 --> 00:11:31,200 company's, their earnings results, their operating income, 236 00:11:31,400 --> 00:11:34,440 their business models, their products, and ignore the 237 00:11:34,440 --> 00:11:36,640 troubling, fearful news that comes your way. 238 00:11:37,080 --> 00:11:39,320 This is the news that they're talking about. 239 00:11:39,800 --> 00:11:42,280 The best investors in the world are not going to be concerned 240 00:11:42,280 --> 00:11:45,560 about this news. The ones that stick to the plan, 241 00:11:45,560 --> 00:11:48,880 the ones that generate alpha Warren Buffett is not going to 242 00:11:48,880 --> 00:11:51,800 be concerned about this news. Now, Warren Buffett's getting 243 00:11:52,080 --> 00:11:54,640 old, and he's not doing interviews as frequently as he 244 00:11:54,640 --> 00:11:56,720 once was. But I have to believe that if he 245 00:11:56,720 --> 00:11:59,560 was being interviewed today, one of the things he would say is 246 00:11:59,560 --> 00:12:02,800 that he still is buying America, that America is still 247 00:12:02,800 --> 00:12:06,000 exceptional, that this is a great place to invest, and that 248 00:12:06,000 --> 00:12:08,000 he doesn't know what's going to happen over the next two to 249 00:12:08,000 --> 00:12:11,000 three years, but he knows it. In 10 years, the stocks he owns 250 00:12:11,000 --> 00:12:13,320 and the companies that he owns are going to be a lot more 251 00:12:13,320 --> 00:12:16,400 profitable, that the S&P 500 will be a lot higher. 252 00:12:16,760 --> 00:12:20,080 That's a message that he shared during the most bleak times in 253 00:12:20,080 --> 00:12:23,360 2009. He shared to invest in America, 254 00:12:23,640 --> 00:12:25,840 which looks far worse than anything that we're facing right 255 00:12:25,840 --> 00:12:28,160 now. We also have investors that you 256 00:12:28,160 --> 00:12:30,880 can imagine, any of them, Chris Hohn. 257 00:12:31,200 --> 00:12:33,920 We have investors like Dev Cantosaria. 258 00:12:34,240 --> 00:12:36,400 You think that they're panicking and selling their holdings 259 00:12:36,400 --> 00:12:38,440 because of this? I find it very doubtful. 260 00:12:38,760 --> 00:12:41,440 Most of them get their excess return by being concentrated in 261 00:12:41,440 --> 00:12:44,160 the best assets and not letting inherently short term news 262 00:12:44,160 --> 00:12:47,600 dictate their actions. And don't be mistaken, tariffs 263 00:12:47,840 --> 00:12:50,280 are short term news. Threats and trade disputes are 264 00:12:50,280 --> 00:12:52,760 short term news. This type of stuff can go on for 265 00:12:52,760 --> 00:12:56,240 a couple years, but if you even look at Trump and you can say 266 00:12:56,240 --> 00:12:58,760 what you want about Trump, you can feel however you want about 267 00:12:58,760 --> 00:13:01,120 President Trump. You can believe that he's a a 268 00:13:01,120 --> 00:13:04,640 very powerful negotiator that stands by his negotiations. 269 00:13:04,640 --> 00:13:06,080 He doesn't take no for an answer. 270 00:13:06,280 --> 00:13:08,880 He finally stands up to different people and you can 271 00:13:08,880 --> 00:13:11,640 view him in that light or you can view him as a bully that's 272 00:13:11,640 --> 00:13:13,760 threatening different trade relationships and making so 273 00:13:13,800 --> 00:13:16,600 allies are upset at us. Whatever way you view him 274 00:13:16,840 --> 00:13:20,280 doesn't matter. It doesn't matter to Amazon in 275 00:13:20,280 --> 00:13:23,160 the next 20 years. It doesn't matter to Microsoft 276 00:13:23,160 --> 00:13:25,240 in the next 15 years. It's not going to matter to 277 00:13:25,240 --> 00:13:27,720 NVIDIA. None of this will play a crucial 278 00:13:27,720 --> 00:13:31,080 role in the outcome of these companies over the next 15 279 00:13:31,080 --> 00:13:32,800 years. So right now, this is just a 280 00:13:32,800 --> 00:13:35,120 blip in the radar. We have a down day of 1 1/2 281 00:13:35,120 --> 00:13:39,160 percent, but this again could evolve to a big sell off. 282 00:13:39,160 --> 00:13:42,360 We could see another big trade dispute and escalating rhetoric 283 00:13:42,600 --> 00:13:45,760 unfold and we could see the markets react like they usually 284 00:13:45,760 --> 00:13:48,200 do pricing in all of this type of data. 285 00:13:48,560 --> 00:13:51,160 When I look at it, I react the same way that I always have in 286 00:13:51,160 --> 00:13:53,600 these type of situations. Or if the market wants to give 287 00:13:53,600 --> 00:13:56,880 me a entry point on some of the best companies in the world, I'm 288 00:13:56,880 --> 00:13:59,520 going to use it. I'll happily look at companies 289 00:13:59,520 --> 00:14:02,640 that I own trading down because of this type of news. 290 00:14:02,640 --> 00:14:05,160 And I'll look for different positions to add to. 291 00:14:05,520 --> 00:14:08,120 I would love to add to the positions I'm already bullish 292 00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:10,400 on. I've already added so much money 293 00:14:10,400 --> 00:14:12,320 to MasterCard. I'm so bullish on this company. 294 00:14:12,320 --> 00:14:14,000 Google is getting better by the day. 295 00:14:14,000 --> 00:14:16,280 The products that they're releasing are exceptional. 296 00:14:16,560 --> 00:14:20,200 What they've done, implementing Gemini into Gmail is incredibly 297 00:14:20,200 --> 00:14:22,880 powerful, and they're doing the same thing with all different 298 00:14:22,880 --> 00:14:25,880 aspects, making it a true personal assistant that helps 299 00:14:25,880 --> 00:14:27,720 you in different ways. One of the big ones that's hit 300 00:14:27,720 --> 00:14:29,920 today is Amazon. This one I already believe is 301 00:14:29,920 --> 00:14:33,600 underpriced, but because Amazon is one of the primary victims of 302 00:14:33,600 --> 00:14:36,640 any type of tariff or trade dispute, it's looked at as one 303 00:14:36,640 --> 00:14:38,960 of the companies to sell off, which I believe is a mistake. 304 00:14:38,960 --> 00:14:41,920 Overall, people are still going to buy from Amazon. 305 00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:44,960 Amazon offers too much convenience to consumers to 306 00:14:44,960 --> 00:14:47,640 switch to an alternative. So this is another company 307 00:14:47,640 --> 00:14:51,160 that'll be looking at increasing my position if this bleeds into 308 00:14:51,160 --> 00:14:53,600 a larger sell off. As of today, the company that I 309 00:14:53,600 --> 00:14:57,360 bought $5000 more of, I just bought it this morning is 310 00:14:57,360 --> 00:14:59,240 Duolingo. This is one of the few companies 311 00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:02,760 in the red in My Portfolio. It's currently with the $5000 312 00:15:02,760 --> 00:15:07,240 buy today, a $20,000 position with $15,000 in the red. 313 00:15:07,360 --> 00:15:10,800 So it's down roughly 50 to 60% from where I initially bought 314 00:15:10,800 --> 00:15:12,480 it. And anytime a company sells off 315 00:15:12,480 --> 00:15:15,720 like this, I take it seriously. And I look at the reasons the 316 00:15:15,720 --> 00:15:18,920 company's selling off and try to understand what the market 317 00:15:18,920 --> 00:15:20,720 doesn't like about the situation. 318 00:15:20,760 --> 00:15:22,760 And there are things that clearly Wall Street and 319 00:15:22,760 --> 00:15:24,760 investors are concerned about with Duolingo. 320 00:15:25,040 --> 00:15:27,120 The biggest one is the decelerating growth. 321 00:15:27,480 --> 00:15:31,040 If you consider the situation of a Duolingo, Wall Street expected 322 00:15:31,040 --> 00:15:34,720 them to have 27% booking growth, which is the amount of 323 00:15:35,040 --> 00:15:37,080 subscriptions they have that they booked ahead of time 324 00:15:37,080 --> 00:15:38,720 because people pay a year in advance. 325 00:15:39,040 --> 00:15:43,400 So Wall Street expected them to have estimates of 27% booking 326 00:15:43,400 --> 00:15:47,720 growth. Duolingo reported 22% growth, so 327 00:15:47,720 --> 00:15:50,320 5 percentage points down below Wall Street's estimates. 328 00:15:50,800 --> 00:15:53,840 Now any company that comes in below estimates of their future 329 00:15:53,840 --> 00:15:56,120 growth has a sell off. It's a resetting of 330 00:15:56,120 --> 00:15:58,440 expectations. Wall Street expected them to be 331 00:15:58,440 --> 00:16:01,400 up here at 27. They came in here at 22. 332 00:16:01,640 --> 00:16:04,600 That means that the stock needs to re rate, but the stock still 333 00:16:04,600 --> 00:16:09,360 down around 25% after those last earnings just because of 5% 334 00:16:09,360 --> 00:16:13,680 lower bookings expectations. It's a very severe reaction for 335 00:16:13,800 --> 00:16:16,040 Duolingo. It shows that Wall Street is 336 00:16:16,040 --> 00:16:20,320 punishing this company harshly for any slight miss in their 337 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:23,040 expectations. Wall Street is re rating the 338 00:16:23,040 --> 00:16:24,240 stock. They're putting it from a 339 00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:27,880 premier category of a fast growing company down to now just 340 00:16:27,880 --> 00:16:31,160 a moderate grower, a company that's expected to grow slowly 341 00:16:31,160 --> 00:16:33,920 over the next five years. And I asked the question, is the 342 00:16:33,920 --> 00:16:35,760 sell off in this stock justified? 343 00:16:35,880 --> 00:16:40,040 Is Duolingo really today worth 60% less than the company it was 344 00:16:40,040 --> 00:16:42,600 six months ago? And I continually believe that 345 00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:46,880 that answer is no. I think the Duolingo has reason 346 00:16:46,880 --> 00:16:48,520 to sell off. I think that the stock should be 347 00:16:48,520 --> 00:16:51,560 down, but I don't believe that the stock should be down 60%. 348 00:16:51,800 --> 00:16:54,160 And the fact that it continues to trade down like it has, I 349 00:16:54,160 --> 00:16:55,960 believe is a bit of an over punishment. 350 00:16:56,040 --> 00:16:58,520 But this behavior with Duolingo is nothing unusual. 351 00:16:58,520 --> 00:17:01,800 Stocks routinely trade outside of their fair value range. 352 00:17:01,840 --> 00:17:04,720 There's a lot of different ways to value Duolingo based on their 353 00:17:04,720 --> 00:17:07,359 booking growth, based on their operating margins and what you 354 00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:08,680 believe will happen in the future. 355 00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:11,560 But what I know right now is looking at Qualtrum and looking 356 00:17:11,560 --> 00:17:14,800 at these charts, I can clearly see that Duolingo is still in 357 00:17:14,800 --> 00:17:16,960 great shape. This is the revenue growth 358 00:17:16,960 --> 00:17:20,760 growing 40% as of last quarter. We have subscription revenue 359 00:17:20,760 --> 00:17:23,800 growing 46%. We have the daily active users 360 00:17:23,800 --> 00:17:27,440 growing 35% in the last quarter. They just announced the pre 361 00:17:27,440 --> 00:17:29,840 emptive quarter that grew by another 2 million. 362 00:17:30,040 --> 00:17:32,720 So even during these AI concerns, during all this 363 00:17:32,720 --> 00:17:35,200 disruptive technology from artificial intelligence, 364 00:17:35,480 --> 00:17:40,080 Duolingo's adding on millions of incremental users every three 365 00:17:40,080 --> 00:17:44,080 months, EBITDA is trending upwards over 100% year over 366 00:17:44,080 --> 00:17:45,720 year. We have free cash flow training 367 00:17:45,720 --> 00:17:49,240 up 55% year over year. Even the free cash flow per 368 00:17:49,240 --> 00:17:52,680 share, which factors in dilution is up nearly 50% year over year. 369 00:17:52,840 --> 00:17:55,760 So you can argue over the valuation or the exact best time 370 00:17:55,760 --> 00:17:58,640 to buy the stock, but from what I can see, it's difficult to 371 00:17:58,640 --> 00:18:01,160 argue that Duolingo isn't headed in the right direction. 372 00:18:01,160 --> 00:18:05,120 Fundamentally, every fundamental, every KPI points to 373 00:18:05,120 --> 00:18:08,480 a company that is growing and it's growing quickly, faster 374 00:18:08,480 --> 00:18:10,200 than most companies in the market. 375 00:18:10,640 --> 00:18:13,560 Until that changes, I'll continue to hold the company and 376 00:18:13,560 --> 00:18:15,640 buy more of it when the stock is selling off. 377 00:18:15,800 --> 00:18:18,640 Now moving on, we also get to news today that we have Netflix 378 00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:20,880 reporting earnings aftermarket close on the day. 379 00:18:21,240 --> 00:18:24,600 Now usually this is a big event. Netflix is one of the first big 380 00:18:24,600 --> 00:18:27,280 tech companies to report earnings, bringing in the 381 00:18:27,280 --> 00:18:29,640 earnings season, which will be going over and reviewing all the 382 00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:32,160 companies soon that that are going to report earnings in the 383 00:18:32,160 --> 00:18:34,480 future. And Netflix again is usually one 384 00:18:34,480 --> 00:18:36,520 of the big ones. It's exciting that everybody's 385 00:18:36,520 --> 00:18:41,000 focused on, and it is true Netflix's earnings report is 386 00:18:41,000 --> 00:18:42,800 important. Investors will be paying 387 00:18:42,800 --> 00:18:46,040 attention to it and Netflix will likely do great. 388 00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:49,600 When we look at the numbers, Netflix is a company that people 389 00:18:49,600 --> 00:18:51,760 may have forgotten amidst all the other news with the 390 00:18:51,760 --> 00:18:54,880 acquisition, but Netflix is a company that's actually really 391 00:18:54,880 --> 00:18:56,720 good. It's growing quickly. 392 00:18:56,880 --> 00:18:59,960 The revenue grew 17% year over year last quarter. 393 00:19:00,440 --> 00:19:02,600 We have revenue growing across every region. 394 00:19:03,080 --> 00:19:05,360 We have the total subscriber count that's not factored in 395 00:19:05,360 --> 00:19:09,800 anymore, but it left off at 301 million and they may give a big 396 00:19:09,800 --> 00:19:11,960 landmark update on that. We don't know how many 397 00:19:11,960 --> 00:19:14,800 subscribers they have because they haven't given us any large 398 00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:17,120 updates on it and I doubt they will during this transaction 399 00:19:17,120 --> 00:19:18,640 phase. But we know that they're growing 400 00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:21,000 in the amount of subscribers. We have the content budget, 401 00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:24,400 which has remained mostly flat, while the rest of the company 402 00:19:24,400 --> 00:19:27,360 has continued to grow, meaning their expenses are flat, their 403 00:19:27,360 --> 00:19:30,400 revenues growing, creating enormous operating leverage and 404 00:19:30,400 --> 00:19:32,600 margin expansion. That's why we're getting this 405 00:19:32,600 --> 00:19:34,440 enormous, enormous growth and free cash flow. 406 00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:36,920 You don't see this type of operating leverage unless you 407 00:19:36,920 --> 00:19:40,120 can keep costs flat. So that's what Netflix is doing. 408 00:19:40,160 --> 00:19:41,640 All these metrics look incredible. 409 00:19:41,960 --> 00:19:44,280 Netflix is an incredibly powerful company. 410 00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:47,200 That's why I invested in it. But a lot of this is being 411 00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:49,400 overshadowed, of course, by the big news. 412 00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:53,480 So even though investors are excited about Netflix's earnings 413 00:19:53,480 --> 00:19:57,000 report, it doesn't feel quite as exciting as it normally is. 414 00:19:57,320 --> 00:19:59,960 It doesn't feel quite as meaningful as it normally is. 415 00:20:00,440 --> 00:20:03,080 And that is because everybody is really focused on the big 416 00:20:03,080 --> 00:20:06,440 picture here, which is Netflix buying Warner Bros. 417 00:20:07,120 --> 00:20:10,680 This earnings report doesn't matter quite as much when you 418 00:20:10,680 --> 00:20:14,600 have this large of a transaction that's still in pending mode. 419 00:20:14,640 --> 00:20:17,800 We don't quite know whether or not this will really go through. 420 00:20:17,920 --> 00:20:21,360 Now Netflix is taking actions to further solidify this deal and 421 00:20:21,360 --> 00:20:26,160 they're doing so by changing it from part cash and part equity 422 00:20:26,600 --> 00:20:28,840 to all cash. Now this new all cash 423 00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:33,040 transaction continues to be valued at 2775 per Warner 424 00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:35,640 Brothers Discovery share. And they continue to leave out 425 00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:38,440 Global Discovery Global, which means that they can sell that 426 00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:40,840 business off separately. The reasons that they highlight 427 00:20:40,840 --> 00:20:43,840 they're doing this, they say the All Cash transaction provides 428 00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:47,200 enhanced certainty around the Warner Brothers Discovery 429 00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:49,520 stockholder that they'll receive at closing. 430 00:20:49,800 --> 00:20:53,040 So it simplifies the deal and makes it less reliant on 431 00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:55,920 Netflix's stock. This will eliminate market based 432 00:20:55,920 --> 00:20:58,400 variability. They also say that this will 433 00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:01,560 make it much quicker because this is a more simple deal to 434 00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:03,440 get done. The revised transaction 435 00:21:03,440 --> 00:21:06,040 structure is expected to enable Warner Brothers Discovery 436 00:21:06,040 --> 00:21:09,680 stockholders to vote on the proposed transaction by April 437 00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:12,560 2026. To support this accelerated 438 00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:16,200 timeline, Warner Brothers Discovery has today filed its 439 00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:18,960 preliminary proxy statement with the SEC. 440 00:21:19,360 --> 00:21:23,360 So they say by April of this year, meaning that we're 441 00:21:23,360 --> 00:21:26,080 probably going to have a vote on this thing in March. 442 00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:28,800 So while I'm excited for the Netflix report, I just don't 443 00:21:28,800 --> 00:21:30,320 think this one is that meaningful. 444 00:21:30,520 --> 00:21:33,360 It doesn't matter that much. There's too much riding on this 445 00:21:33,360 --> 00:21:35,320 big deal. It's, it's too much of an over 446 00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:38,120 shadow to what's going on here. I think the most enlightening 447 00:21:38,120 --> 00:21:41,200 thing that we'll get out of this earnings report is probably the 448 00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:43,440 Q&A section when they're asked about the Warner Brothers 449 00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:45,480 Discovery deal. I think we'll get a little bit 450 00:21:45,480 --> 00:21:48,400 more insight into their thought process and hopefully questions 451 00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:50,080 from the analysts create more clarity. 452 00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:51,560 Now. Next we get to this Davos 453 00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:54,680 interview with Andy Jassy. This is just from today, and 454 00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:57,040 he's talking about the impact of AI on jobs. 455 00:21:57,120 --> 00:21:58,960 Specifically. Is it going to create more jobs 456 00:21:58,960 --> 00:22:01,960 or is it going to remove jobs? Now, of course, Andy Jassi is 457 00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:04,800 very careful with how he answers it, but in a roundabout way, he 458 00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:07,600 says a lot of the things that we do are going to be replaced by 459 00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:10,840 AI and better efficiencies. I think what I said was I I've, 460 00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:16,120 you know, in the next couple few years, I could see or having 461 00:22:16,120 --> 00:22:21,280 fewer people than we had before. Some of that, you know, a lot of 462 00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:24,600 that will be just are continuing to allow ourselves to move 463 00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:27,640 quickly as it's important culturally and speed wise. 464 00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:31,840 But I do think that jobs are going to be impacted by what's 465 00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:34,080 happening with AI over time. They're they're not in a 466 00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:37,400 significant way yet, but I think you'll see that if you just 467 00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:45,200 think about how AI and agents will enable you to do coding and 468 00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:49,920 customer service and research and analytics, you know, even 469 00:22:49,920 --> 00:22:51,960 just the idea of doing spreadsheets the way we've done 470 00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:54,360 them in the past, I think those will be pretty different. 471 00:22:54,360 --> 00:22:58,120 And so I don't think that wipes out all those jobs, but I think 472 00:22:58,120 --> 00:23:00,200 we'll still have plenty of people in those roles. 473 00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:03,440 And those people will start their jobs, each task they 474 00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:05,840 pursue at a higher, more advanced starting point. 475 00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:08,920 All the rote work that we used to all have to do before we 476 00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:10,600 could get to actually the thinking work. 477 00:23:10,600 --> 00:23:12,320 A lot of that will be done by AI. 478 00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:15,360 So we'll still have people who will be able to invent quicker 479 00:23:15,360 --> 00:23:18,480 and, and more easily. But I do think that you won't 480 00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:21,840 need as many people in all those jobs that we've thrown humans at 481 00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:25,000 for the last 20 years. That said, I, you know, I do 482 00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:27,360 believe we're going to have, we're going to have a lot, we're 483 00:23:27,360 --> 00:23:31,640 hiring a lot of people now in AI and automation and robotics and 484 00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:34,680 you know, our low Earth orbit satellite that we're building in 485 00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:36,000 healthcare. So we're going to have a lot of 486 00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:38,320 people and other businesses we're pursuing, and they're 487 00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:41,040 going to be brand new jobs that we haven't thought of. 488 00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:43,840 I mean, 15 years ago there weren't jobs like cloud 489 00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:46,040 architect, you know, I mean, those didn't exist. 490 00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:49,120 And whenever you go through any big technology transformation, 491 00:23:49,120 --> 00:23:50,880 you find new jobs. I think the same's going to be 492 00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:53,560 true here medium to long term. This is, of course, the exact 493 00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:55,680 right answer. Everyone knows and can envision 494 00:23:55,680 --> 00:23:58,000 the different types of jobs that AI will disrupt, the ones that 495 00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:00,320 it can do easily. What's more difficult to 496 00:24:00,320 --> 00:24:03,840 envision is it whenever you disrupt jobs by making companies 497 00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:07,080 far more efficient, the companies make far more money. 498 00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:10,040 That money is in freely reinvested into different 499 00:24:10,040 --> 00:24:13,760 businesses, which is exactly like Amazon has always done. 500 00:24:14,120 --> 00:24:16,720 They build 1 business, they make it profitable, and they use the 501 00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:19,240 excess profits of that business to create a new business. 502 00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:22,360 Amazon's always building, refining, making it profitable, 503 00:24:22,360 --> 00:24:25,040 and then using the profits to reinvest attractively into 504 00:24:25,040 --> 00:24:27,640 something else. And AI will speed up that 505 00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:29,360 process. It will make them more inventive 506 00:24:29,360 --> 00:24:31,840 and it'll make it so that they can create new things quicker, 507 00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:34,720 which means that you have more businesses, you have better 508 00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:36,880 profits now. Next, we have Joel Kaplan from 509 00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:39,880 Meta talking once again about Meta's ambitions and super 510 00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:41,480 intelligence. Here's what you had to say about 511 00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:41,760 it. The. 512 00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:43,360 First thing is what we're trying to build. 513 00:24:43,360 --> 00:24:45,640 Our ambition is to build personal super intelligence, 514 00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:47,680 which means putting super intelligence in the hands of 515 00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:49,960 everyone. We've got a platform that serves 516 00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:53,640 3.5 billion people every day. So we have some real advantages 517 00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:56,600 there and we are spending a lot of money to build the the 518 00:24:56,600 --> 00:25:00,160 massive data center and power infrastructure necessary to 519 00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:04,000 bring that vision to tuition. And we're confident that with 520 00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:06,120 the right models and the right products, we're going to be able 521 00:25:06,120 --> 00:25:07,880 to build personal super intelligence and, and. 522 00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:10,280 Empower. So Meta's building personal 523 00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:12,920 super intelligence. Now Google's doing a version of 524 00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:15,720 that with Gemini where they're using all of the different 525 00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:18,320 assets that Google has, all the data they have over you to make 526 00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:20,960 a highly intelligent personalized assistant. 527 00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:23,720 Then of course, we have Apple, which that's their whole selling 528 00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:25,480 point. You have the iPhone and they 529 00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:27,960 want to create a personalized assistant that can work with 530 00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:29,600 you. Use all the data on the iPhone 531 00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:31,680 to help you better. Seems like all the big tech 532 00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:35,120 companies are racing towards the same goal of personalized super 533 00:25:35,120 --> 00:25:37,760 intelligence. But in reality, if they fall 534 00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:41,280 short of this goal, if it doesn't come to fruition, then 535 00:25:41,280 --> 00:25:45,360 they're just going to repurpose this server capacity, all this 536 00:25:45,360 --> 00:25:48,840 computational power towards making their ads run a bit more 537 00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:52,200 efficiently, towards making their AI tools for their users a 538 00:25:52,200 --> 00:25:55,520 bit better, to making it so that they can just use it towards 539 00:25:55,520 --> 00:25:58,080 their own demand. And they already have massive 540 00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:00,840 demand for server capacity, for computation power. 541 00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:05,320 So in Meta's case, the best case scenario is they do accomplish 542 00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:06,880 the personalized super intelligence. 543 00:26:07,400 --> 00:26:09,560 But in the worst case scenario, it's still not bad. 544 00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:13,160 They're just going to repurpose all that computational power to 545 00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:16,040 making their advertisements, their AI generated tools a 546 00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:17,800 little better. Now moving on, I wanted to 547 00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:19,320 highlight this story. I thought it's another 548 00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:23,640 incredible example of this investor Chris Home with TCI, 549 00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:26,200 he's in a league of his own. He really is. 550 00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:29,800 He's right up there with the best of the best and his 551 00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:35,280 performance shows it. He made $18.9 billion last year, 552 00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:38,680 not million billion dollars in 2025. 553 00:26:39,120 --> 00:26:41,720 Now, if we if we look at the actual performance here, the 554 00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:44,480 total number doesn't even do it justice because we have here 555 00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:48,400 that the British investor, TCI Fund Management made 18.9 556 00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:51,280 billion for clients last year, making it the most profitable 557 00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:55,040 hedge fund firm in 2025. That is according to a new 558 00:26:55,040 --> 00:26:58,640 estimate from Swiss investment firm and which compiles the 559 00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:01,160 annual list of the world's top money managers based on their 560 00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:03,520 gains after fees in dollar terms. 561 00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:07,520 So this 18.9 billion is after fees are accounted for. 562 00:27:08,120 --> 00:27:10,560 Hey investors, this is just money that that I've made for 563 00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:12,920 you, I've made for you by selecting the right companies. 564 00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:17,000 PCI's Hall was the biggest annual dollar gain made by hedge 565 00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:20,960 fund firm in Edmund Day Rothschild's records, the report 566 00:27:20,960 --> 00:27:24,960 said, topping the previous 16 billion record by Citadel in 567 00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:28,080 2022. So Chris Holmes even beat out 568 00:27:28,080 --> 00:27:30,720 Citadel. That's how big TCI is. 569 00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:33,480 And a lot of this is from deposits. 570 00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:36,040 It's from people contributing money and investing in his firm. 571 00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:40,000 But a lot of it is from gains. An enormous amount of capital 572 00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:42,800 that he now manages is from his own gains. 573 00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:47,040 It also trounces the reported 15 billion bounty that John Paulson 574 00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:50,280 scored in 2007 wagering against the housing market. 575 00:27:50,800 --> 00:27:53,720 So the these aren't adjusted for inflation, but I think even if 576 00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:56,920 you did, he's still winning. I, I think even if you adjusted 577 00:27:56,920 --> 00:27:58,400 for inflation, he'd still be winning. 578 00:27:58,520 --> 00:27:59,840 Now, how did he make these gains? 579 00:27:59,840 --> 00:28:01,640 Well, it highlights his strategy here. 580 00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:05,840 We've gone over a few time. But for TCI, big long standing 581 00:28:05,840 --> 00:28:08,560 bets on aerospace companies paid off handsomely. 582 00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:12,280 The london-based firm had a large stakes in US jet engine 583 00:28:12,280 --> 00:28:15,480 maker GE Aerospace. That was his best performing 1. 584 00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:19,560 He also hasn't a few holdings in European companies or foreign 585 00:28:19,560 --> 00:28:23,160 companies that aren't recorded in Data Roma and different 13F 586 00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:24,560 filings. For example, the French 587 00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:28,000 aerospace supplier Safran and European playmaker Airbus are 588 00:28:28,000 --> 00:28:30,480 two of his positions, according to people familiar with the 589 00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:32,720 firm's positioning and regulatory disclosures. 590 00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:36,600 All three rallied to last year as investors bet on stocks 591 00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:39,120 expected to benefit from rising military spending. 592 00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:46,160 Now, TCI finished the year with 27.8% gains in its master fund, 593 00:28:46,480 --> 00:28:49,720 according to people familiar with the returns, which crushed 594 00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:52,000 both the indices. He's beating out the QQQ, he's 595 00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:54,760 beating out the S&P 500, he's beating out the Dow Jones. 596 00:28:55,320 --> 00:28:58,240 There's no real benchmark that Chris Hoenn isn't crushing. 597 00:28:58,680 --> 00:29:01,280 He he's just doing an excellent job. 598 00:29:01,280 --> 00:29:03,000 I've never seen a hedge fund like this. 599 00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:05,920 What has led to Chris Hohn's incredible success here? 600 00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:07,520 There's a couple things that we can outline. 601 00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:11,040 First of all, one of them is that he's avoided the AI hype. 602 00:29:11,040 --> 00:29:14,080 So he's actively avoiding the hottest AI stocks. 603 00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:16,920 You don't see him investing in the biggest ones like NVIDIA, 604 00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:19,760 like Palantir. He's not buying those companies, 605 00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:23,120 He's avoiding them while crushing the overall index and 606 00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:25,280 most investors that are headed into those companies. 607 00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:27,360 He also has a very concentrated portfolio. 608 00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:29,680 You don't get these type of excessive returns. 609 00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:32,120 You don't get this type of market being performance. 610 00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:34,880 If you don't have concentration, if you're too broadly 611 00:29:34,880 --> 00:29:37,720 diversified, you'll more closely follow the market. 612 00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:40,680 The more concentrated you are, the more that your performance 613 00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:44,160 can deviate either high or low from the market indices. 614 00:29:44,520 --> 00:29:47,840 That's why concentration in many cases is looked at as risk and 615 00:29:47,840 --> 00:29:49,800 increases your chances of underperformance. 616 00:29:50,320 --> 00:29:54,160 When you're Chris Hoen and you select great companies that have 617 00:29:54,160 --> 00:29:57,760 incredible growth paths, that have very deep monopolistic 618 00:29:57,880 --> 00:30:00,680 market structures, it's very difficult for those companies to 619 00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:03,360 underperform in the long term. And then finally, the big thing 620 00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:06,360 that I notice here in his out performance is he holds 621 00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:08,120 companies for a long period of time. 622 00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:11,600 He really holds these companies for multiple, multiple years. 623 00:30:11,600 --> 00:30:14,800 He lets the story play out. So it's incredible once again to 624 00:30:14,800 --> 00:30:18,520 see Chris Hoen top the list, the most profitable hedge fund, the 625 00:30:18,520 --> 00:30:21,120 one that's making investors the most money, crushing the 626 00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:23,240 markets. It's really incredible 627 00:30:23,240 --> 00:30:25,320 performance. Now, finally, we get to the fail 628 00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:29,200 of the week, which in this case is a 22nd clip from Beast Games. 629 00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:31,240 This is the TV series that Mister Beast started. 630 00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:34,360 I think it's on Amazon Prime. And this is one of the episodes. 631 00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:36,400 Now, admittedly, I've not watched this season. 632 00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:39,400 I need to catch up on it, but I saw this clip as it was spread 633 00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:43,080 everywhere because well, let me just get some background here. 634 00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:47,320 This guy, I, I think his name is Joseph Torres and he's basically 635 00:30:47,320 --> 00:30:50,840 given an option here. He's like the team leader and 636 00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:54,040 the team selected him because they trusted him that he 637 00:30:54,040 --> 00:30:55,800 wouldn't eliminate the rest of the team. 638 00:30:56,240 --> 00:30:58,160 I think that's the situation, but I might be wrong. 639 00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:03,080 But when given the chance, he was offered $1,000,000 to 640 00:31:03,080 --> 00:31:06,600 eliminate his team. So basically, if he breaks the 641 00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:11,160 trust of his team, he's immediately given $1 million. 642 00:31:11,680 --> 00:31:12,960 And those aren't game show dollars. 643 00:31:12,960 --> 00:31:16,880 Those are, that's real money, $1,000,000 in cash deposited 644 00:31:16,880 --> 00:31:19,960 right in your bank account. That's $1,000,000 to him if he 645 00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:22,440 eliminates his team. Now let's go ahead and take a 646 00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:27,320 look at what he does. Guys, come on, if you press that 647 00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:29,960 button I will wire you $1,000,000. 648 00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:37,680 JT you slimy? He didn't even take a he didn't 649 00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:39,680 take a break. Look at what he did here. 650 00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:43,680 In fact, look at the reaction of these these different teams. 651 00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:47,360 He didn't even finish saying $1,000,000. 652 00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:50,440 He was halfway through the word Jimmy was halfway through the 653 00:31:50,440 --> 00:31:53,840 word 1,000,000, and this guy hits the button like he hears 654 00:31:53,840 --> 00:31:56,720 the first syllable of a million and he just hits the button 655 00:31:56,720 --> 00:31:58,720 right away. I will wire you $1,000,000. 656 00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:06,920 JT you slimy? And then the rest of the clip is 657 00:32:06,920 --> 00:32:10,000 his team, of course, being distraught, disappointed. 658 00:32:10,120 --> 00:32:12,680 One of the teammates here is trying to say how his character 659 00:32:12,680 --> 00:32:14,920 is ruined, how he's a slimy person for doing this. 660 00:32:15,080 --> 00:32:16,960 Gave you some money if you was that desperate. 661 00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:19,520 You look real bad in front of God. 662 00:32:19,600 --> 00:32:21,160 In front of your car. Ran on his team. 663 00:32:21,160 --> 00:32:24,000 You look super bad. She says you look bad in front 664 00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:26,440 of God. He took $1,000,000. 665 00:32:26,440 --> 00:32:30,880 Now God is judging him for eliminating this this team, this 666 00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:34,960 group of people on this goofy game show, which is Beast Games. 667 00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:38,960 Now keep in mind, this isn't like some type of business 668 00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:41,440 agreement. They're on a game show on Amazon 669 00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:44,640 Prime and she's saying that he looks bad in front of God. 670 00:32:45,880 --> 00:32:49,040 We don't respect you no more. I don't got nothing to say for 671 00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:50,880 you. Now there's other clips along 672 00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:53,280 with this where the rest of these contestants have tried to 673 00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:56,680 guilt trip this person for taking the money, saying that he 674 00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:58,800 he basically did wrong. By God, he's going to have to 675 00:32:58,800 --> 00:33:01,640 work on himself. That really did he sell out for 676 00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:04,360 the the $1,000,000? And it's just the most 677 00:33:04,360 --> 00:33:08,040 ridiculous take possible. Can anyone honestly look at this 678 00:33:08,320 --> 00:33:12,320 and say that they wouldn't take $1,000,000 guaranteed to 679 00:33:12,320 --> 00:33:15,840 eliminate from a competition 5 people that they're never going 680 00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:17,800 to see again? People that they've known for 681 00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:21,880 four days? JT this guy doesn't know any of 682 00:33:21,880 --> 00:33:24,160 these people. Why does their opinion? 683 00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:26,480 Why? Why should he expect their 684 00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:30,880 opinion to really matter at all? This is a no brainer. 685 00:33:30,880 --> 00:33:33,760 In fact, this is one of the easiest decisions that I think 686 00:33:33,760 --> 00:33:36,480 possibly could be made if anyone's given. 687 00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:40,240 I think my case as well. If anybody's given the option to 688 00:33:40,240 --> 00:33:45,280 get $1,000,000 guaranteed, and the consequence of that is they 689 00:33:45,280 --> 00:33:48,760 have to eliminate 5 people from a game show that they've known 690 00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:52,920 for a day or two, everybody should immediately take the 691 00:33:52,920 --> 00:33:57,440 $1,000,000 without question, without hesitation, exactly like 692 00:33:57,440 --> 00:33:59,320 he did. Not only do I agree with his 693 00:33:59,320 --> 00:34:01,600 actions, I don't think he needs to apologize for anything. 694 00:34:02,120 --> 00:34:05,120 Apologize to God for what? Playing a game show and winning 695 00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:07,000 money? This wasn't some type of 696 00:34:07,000 --> 00:34:08,560 contract agreement with these people. 697 00:34:08,560 --> 00:34:10,320 It wasn't type type of business agreement. 698 00:34:10,600 --> 00:34:13,239 They're in an actual game show. It's the whole purpose of the 699 00:34:13,239 --> 00:34:17,159 show is to create drama, to eliminate people and to try to 700 00:34:17,159 --> 00:34:19,400 get the prize. He did exactly that. 701 00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:22,719 And in fact, even if you put it in the other perspective here, 702 00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:26,440 if I was one of the people on his team and I was one of the 703 00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:29,400 ones that got eliminated, I wouldn't even be angry. 704 00:34:29,480 --> 00:34:32,560 I wouldn't even be frustrated. I would fully expect him or 705 00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:36,120 whoever it is to operate for their own self-interest in a 706 00:34:36,120 --> 00:34:39,560 logical way. I could not even blame him as 707 00:34:39,560 --> 00:34:42,480 the one that would be eliminated as taking the money. 708 00:34:43,199 --> 00:34:44,960 So if I was one of the contestants, I would shrug my 709 00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:48,120 shoulders and go, OK, I mean, why would he not take it? 710 00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:50,560 Like I? We don't have any big 711 00:34:50,560 --> 00:34:52,440 relationship. I haven't known this guy for 20 712 00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:54,600 years. It's not like a some type of 713 00:34:54,600 --> 00:34:58,000 blood bound loyalty between us. Why would he not take it? 714 00:34:58,000 --> 00:35:00,240 While I thought it was interesting and this contestant 715 00:35:00,240 --> 00:35:03,000 obviously did the right thing, I think there needs to be more 716 00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:05,440 interesting questions. Jimmy needs to work up more 717 00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:08,160 interesting moral dilemmas when he's offering people huge 718 00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:11,120 amounts of money because this one had no trade off. 719 00:35:11,120 --> 00:35:14,880 There's only one right answer obviously, and we want to see 720 00:35:14,880 --> 00:35:17,600 more interesting moral dilemmas, really put pressure on people, 721 00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:20,600 really make it difficult for them to accept enormous amounts 722 00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:21,800 of money. That's going to be it for this 723 00:35:21,800 --> 00:35:22,960 episode. Hope you enjoyed. 724 00:35:23,080 --> 00:35:23,920 See you in the next one.