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Welcome back, everyone. 
Today on details of Carlson 

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show. 
Apple had a market cap of three 

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trillion dollars. 
A market cap of three trillion 

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dollars is pretty good, but it's
not good enough. 

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According to Dan Ives, he's an 
analyst for apple and other tech

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companies, he says that Apple 
will be at four trillion dollars

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in market cap. 
In 2024. 

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Is he, correct? 
We're going to go through this 

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interview and I'll give you my 
full analysis on his Arguments, 

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for Apple hitting a four 
trillion dollar market cap. 

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Now, we also have some news 
about Microsoft, that isn't 

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quite as good. 
Microsoft says that it could 

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abandon the Activision deal. 
If the judge ends up delaying, 

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it Microsoft may end up losing 
this case if they lose the case,

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they're going to have to pay 
Activision Blizzard will be 

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looking at the financials of 
Microsoft. 

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How does that three billion 
dollar payment? 

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Impact their cash flows? 
And then of course we have the 

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big news of this year. 
We're having a good month, we're

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having a good year. 
We've had a monster Market rally

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in 2023. 
That's quote. 

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Defied all expectations. 
Well, it shouldn't be defined 

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our Asians in this video, I'm 
going to explain why I believe 

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there's a high likelihood. 
The market will do well for the 

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next couple of years. 
There's a lot of good evidence 

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to show that this stock market 
can continue and of course it's 

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Friday. 
So we have the financial advice 

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from Tick Tock and this one. 
They're talking about how much 

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money you need to feel like you 
can retire and that you've made 

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it. 
So we're going to be going into 

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tick-tocks retirement advice. 
Now, the first thing that I want

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to mention is if you're one of 
the new members to this channel,

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we do things a little 
differently here. 

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And we have had a lot of new 
members recently. 

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In fact, when I look at the 
analytics, just over the past 28

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days. 
So the past one month, we've had

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something like 6,500. 
Do people join? 

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So, welcome all of you. 
I'm glad that you've decided to 

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join the channel. 
A couple things that I think are

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worth mentioning. 
First of all, this is not a 

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Channel or you just talk about 
stocks in the news. 

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We do something different here 
where we actually show what 

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we're doing with our money. 
I know that that's a somewhat 

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unique concept, it's not 
something a lot of people. 

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End up doing. 
But I've shown what I've been 

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doing with my finances with my 
investments for four years now 

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publicly every single week you 
can follow along like following 

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a reality show. 
You can see exactly what I'm 

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doing. 
Every trade buy and sell with 

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transparency. 
The portfolio so far has gone up

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in 92 thousand dollars over 
those past four years giving a 

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68 percent return beating out 
the S&P 500 by a little bit, but

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I can't celebrate too early this
year still in progress. 

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But this is the portfolio. 
It's a collection of high 

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quality businesses that I call 
Compounders, these companies are

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exceptional they're the top of 
their class in their industry 

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and I consider the companies in 
this portfolio to be not just 

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good companies but I think 
they're the top 1% of the top 

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1%, these companies are orders 
of magnitude better than the 

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average company. 
They have assets, they have 

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monopolistic positions, they 
have cash flow profiles. 

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They have moats that are 
incredibly difficult for other 

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companies. 
To compete with a lot of these 

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companies, I consider to be 
outright monopolies. 

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So what I've been doing over the
past couple of years, is 

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building a concentrated 
positions into these companies 

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once that I think will continue 
to compound for a long period of

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time. 
Have incredibly long runways and

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I continue to just buy more and 
more of mostly the same exact 

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companies over and over again. 
The goal of all of this is, of 

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course, to make money money 
through capital appreciation. 

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Money through dividends, the 
Dividends are cash. 

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Add into the account which are 
then reinvested back into the 

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portfolio. 
In the companies that I think, 

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will give me the highest return 
at the given time. 

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So I'm constantly in a Snowball 
Effect, reinvesting all the 

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dividends paid into the 
individual stocks that I think 

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present the best opportunity to 
look at which stocks present the

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best opportunity. 
I use something called the dip 

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finder. 
It's one of the tools that shows

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me how all the companies in my 
portfolio are trading over 

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different time lines so I can 
look at the 3-month the six 

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month and so on and we try to 
have a lot of fun while doing 

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this as well. 
But I think that Biggest thing 

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I'd like to point out here, the 
biggest point of emphasis is by 

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far the overall returns and 
transparency that I'm doing here

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still to this date. 
The majority of content 

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creators, do not show their 
total performance since the 

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beginning of their portfolio, 
they show different snaps. 

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They might show different stocks
here and there, they might show 

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their current Holdings and hide 
all the ones that they've 

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previously sold out of, but they
don't show their total returns. 

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This is my total returns since 
starting the portfolio and I 

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We'll continue to show it every 
single week. 

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So having established that, 
let's go ahead and jump into 

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some news here. 
Now, the big headline news of 

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the day is that Apple hit a 
trillion dollar market cap. 

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A trillion dollars. 08 that was 
like a couple years ago they had

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a trillion dollars now they hit 
a two trillion dollar market 

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cap. 
They doubled from a trillion 08,

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that was was that a year ago two
years ago that they had a two 

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trillion dollar market cap. 
Oh they hit three trillion 

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dollars. 
We're at the third trillion 

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dollar market cap for Apple 
seems like I'm having Shabu 

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here. 
I remember the first time that 

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Apple hit the 1 trillion dollar 
market cap. 

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I own the company. 
When it hit that market cap that

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was after 2017, I can't remember
precisely when, but I remember 

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owning the stock when they hit 
that trillion dollar market cap,

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then they hit the two trillion 
and my thought was wow, that was

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a lot easier than them hitting 
the first trillion, Apple really

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cranked out the profit they 
increased, the cash flows 

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hitting that second trillion, 
and now her at the third 

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trillion dollar Market cap. 
Now, I've been an apple Fanboy. 

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I've been a fan of both the 
products of this company, the 

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services and the stock. 
I've been an enormous fan of 

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Apple stock for a long period of
time. 

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This has been one of my earliest
positions, I've continually 

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added to it, I've not sold any 
of this stock and I'm very glad 

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that I haven't because this has 
been a wonderful stock to own. 

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I'm currently up in total value 
over 100 percent. 

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So, I have a fifty five thousand
dollar holding. 

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Now, I'm in the green by around 
27,000 dollars. 

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But in actuality since the 
beginning, I would be up over 

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two hundred percent on this 
stock had I not continually 

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raise my cost basis by 
continually buying more of it. 

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So I've only added to this 
company over and over again, but

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apples, one of these companies 
that no matter how big the 

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company grows, no matter how 
high the valuation is, it always

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seems to outperform investors 
expectations in. 

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This is something that I think 
is notable, I think this is a 

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shortcoming of investors still 
to this day. 

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When Apple hit a trillion dollar
market cap, a lot of people 

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thought that it's already the 
biggest company in the world, 

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there's no way it's going to 
outperform. 

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It has so many analysts covering
the company. 

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It has so many people using the 
products. 

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How is there any Alpha to be had
and a company? 

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So widely known by everyone. 
But this company that was 

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already the biggest in the world
out performed, the S&P 500 by 

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five times, over the past, 
Years, it five, except the 

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performance of spy, it 3x, the 
performance of the QQQ. 

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So even comparing it to the 
NASDAQ. 

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It has completely destroyed the 
NASDAQ over the past five years 

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it's out performed almost every 
Super investor and hedge fund in

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existence over the past five 
years and it's done. 

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So while being the biggest 
company in the world, almost the

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entire time. 
Now, trying to explain this can 

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be difficult. 
Why is Apple continually Arming 

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expectations. 
Why are investors not pricing 

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this company? 
Appropriately? 

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It generates more cash, flows 
and expected. 

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It, generates more profits 
higher amounts of Revenue higher

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returns and expected almost 
every single year. 

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So, I want to look at one 
analysis explanation of why this

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stock is going from a three 
trillion dollar market cap to a 

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four trillion. 
Next year. 

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Dan Ives, please app will be a 
four trillion dollar company 

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next year. 
He's still bullish on it. 

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He still thinks it's underpriced
and he has this explanation of 

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what investors are missing. 
So we're going to be looking at 

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this and I'll explain whether or
not Dan Ives is correct. 

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I think this time it happens Dan
in. 

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Do you think that the underlying
fundamentals support that 

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valuation more at this time than
they did in January of 2022? 

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Yeah, I think it's a historic 
day, not just for Cupertino but 

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for Tack and I think when you 
look at the story here, specific

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on the services side, that's the
key. 

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Part of the sum of the parts, I 
think. 

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Well, I the Bears. 
Miss and, you know, I don't 

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think it ends here. 
We believe this, the four 

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trillion dollar market cap by 
2025 and at the end, the day 

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Apple continues to play chess 
While others are playing 

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checkers. 
Okay? 

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So he has the basis of his 
argument there. 

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The big thing that he 
highlighted that he says 

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investors, Miss is the services 
part of it, Apple's playing 

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chess, While others are playing 
checkers. 

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If we bring up Apple hair on 
qual trim which is a website 

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available to patreon members, we
can take a look at what Dan Ives

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is talking about. 
With apple, we have all the 

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metrics and valuation, and this 
is what most investors focus on.

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They look at the valuation and 
they say the apples trading at a

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25 PE. 
So it's expensive or cheap based

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on that. 
They look at the free cash flow.

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Yield three percent yield. 
It's expensive or cheap based on

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that but we know that companies 
are much more complex than just 

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a yield or P/E ratio, 
determining the future cash flow

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of the company is incredibly 
important in forming a full 

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valuation and when we look at 
what Dan Ives is, Talking about 

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this sum of the parts, we can 
bring that up on the revenue 

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chart. 
We have the revenue right hair 

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from Apple. 
This is quarter by quarter. 

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We see it all the way going back
from 1985 when it was just a 

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device maker making iPods. 
I remember buying one of the 

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first iPods and then the iPod 
Shuffle. 

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I got one of the beefy iPods 
that had the spinner wheel and 

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had like 40 gigs of memory. 
I thought it was amazing. 

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Then of course they came out 
with the phone, a game-changer, 

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the stock price dropped The 
revenue continued to grow over 

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the past. 
Couple of decades, apples 

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Revenue has been explosive, has 
continued to grow and this is 

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again what most investors are 
focused on. 

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They look at overall Revenue, 
growth rates apples, Revenue has

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grown at 10 percent over the 
past 10 years. 

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Why? 
I know a lot of companies 

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growing their revenue faster 
than 10%, that doesn't sound 

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00:10:22,400 --> 00:10:25,500
that good but these numbers 
again, don't share the full 

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story. 
There's a little bit deeper 

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context, we can look at if we go
to the The product segments are 

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we get to the sum of the parts? 
Let's cross out some of the 

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older product divisions and make
this a little bit cleaner. 

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Here we have the sum of the 
parts of apples Revenue so these

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are all the exact same total 
revenue but now we see them 

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broken up by different 
categories. 

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In this we can take a look at 
what Dan Ives is talking about. 

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00:10:50,900 --> 00:10:54,000
You says that investors are 
missing the services. 

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Apple is not a hardware company 
anymore. 

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They are a device install. 
So they do have a large part of 

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their revenue, that's hardware. 
But the services is by far the 

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most important part of their 
story and has been the most 

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important part of their story 
for a long period of time. 

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If we cross out the services, we
see the growth over all of the 

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revenue. 
This is the slower growing part 

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of the revenue. 
They just need to maintain their

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install base. 
They don't really need to grow 

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this all that much, so it's 
growing with inflation and small

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price increases, but this isn't 
a booming part of apples 

229
00:11:29,000 --> 00:11:31,700
business. 
When we look at the services and

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we cross out everything else, we
see the explosive growth of 

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00:11:35,600 --> 00:11:40,100
services doubling since 2018. 
And while this part of the 

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00:11:40,100 --> 00:11:43,500
business is growing. 
The margins are much higher 

233
00:11:43,800 --> 00:11:48,000
while Apple's total margins 
around 40%, the services are 

234
00:11:48,000 --> 00:11:52,100
easily 60% plus so much higher 
margin. 

235
00:11:52,100 --> 00:11:54,600
Portion of the business is 
growing at a faster rate. 

236
00:11:54,900 --> 00:11:59,800
This is also lifting the entire 
company and this is no small. 

237
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Has Apple Services did 21 
billion dollars last quarter 

238
00:12:03,900 --> 00:12:06,900
that is astronomical. 
So right off the bat, just the 

239
00:12:06,900 --> 00:12:09,700
first 10 seconds of what Dan 
Ives has to say. 

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00:12:10,200 --> 00:12:11,800
I think he nailed it. 
I think so far. 

241
00:12:11,800 --> 00:12:14,700
His analysis of Apple is 
spot-on, but he has more to say 

242
00:12:14,700 --> 00:12:18,500
about the company. 
They what do you call it? 

243
00:12:18,500 --> 00:12:23,200
Something there that the Bears 
have complained that there's I 

244
00:12:23,200 --> 00:12:26,400
guess there's not something that
it's all been incremental. 

245
00:12:26,600 --> 00:12:31,800
There hasn't been any Quantum 
Leap in in Apple's product mix 

246
00:12:31,800 --> 00:12:34,500
and that and but that hasn't 
stopped that you can see it 

247
00:12:34,500 --> 00:12:36,800
right there. 
I mean that obviously has a lot 

248
00:12:36,800 --> 00:12:40,900
to do with momentum and the 
narrow advance that we've seen 

249
00:12:40,900 --> 00:12:44,900
in the NASDAQ, obviously, but 
Apple has hit on a lot of 

250
00:12:44,900 --> 00:12:47,500
cylinders just You know, it 
didn't go from an eight cylinder

251
00:12:47,500 --> 00:12:49,700
to a 12 cylinder. 
It's just got a really good 

252
00:12:49,700 --> 00:12:51,800
eight. 
Cylinders sure. 

253
00:12:51,800 --> 00:12:54,300
I think, when investors are 
missing in my opinion, the ones 

254
00:12:54,300 --> 00:12:58,100
that have bet against apple is 
it's a golden install base. 

255
00:12:58,100 --> 00:13:02,200
We're done by 1.2 billion, 
iPhones, 2 billion iOS devices. 

256
00:13:02,500 --> 00:13:05,300
And the hall theme. 
Tactician cook has Led Apple 

257
00:13:05,300 --> 00:13:08,800
through all the challenges from 
a supply chain to other issues. 

258
00:13:08,800 --> 00:13:12,600
And you have 25% of the install 
base is not upgrade their iPhone

259
00:13:12,600 --> 00:13:16,600
4 plus years and that's why this
is just starting on Some of the 

260
00:13:16,600 --> 00:13:20,200
parts into what I believe is 
really just almost a middle 

261
00:13:20,200 --> 00:13:22,800
Innings. 
He goes on saying, that another 

262
00:13:22,800 --> 00:13:26,400
thing that investors are missing
is the golden install base. 

263
00:13:26,400 --> 00:13:29,500
I believe this is another 
correct take from Dan eyes. 

264
00:13:29,500 --> 00:13:33,100
I think he has this spot on. 
Apple has the golden install 

265
00:13:33,100 --> 00:13:35,500
base. 
The install base is the number 

266
00:13:35,500 --> 00:13:39,500
of devices that consumers have 
they have over a billion devices

267
00:13:39,500 --> 00:13:42,200
out there actively being used by
consumers. 

268
00:13:42,600 --> 00:13:45,300
So we have a ton of people. 
Let's say 1 billion. 

269
00:13:45,900 --> 00:13:47,900
Devices. 
It might not be that much. 

270
00:13:47,900 --> 00:13:50,200
It might be a little bit more. 
It's, it's a little bit 

271
00:13:50,200 --> 00:13:53,200
difficult because a lot of Apple
users have more than one device.

272
00:13:53,500 --> 00:13:57,400
But either way, we have this 
massive current install base. 

273
00:13:57,700 --> 00:14:01,300
All the people that use Apple 
devices all the install base 

274
00:14:01,700 --> 00:14:03,800
there, in part of this 
ecosystem. 

275
00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:06,400
There's a lot of coverage about 
the ecosystem. 

276
00:14:06,700 --> 00:14:09,600
There's tech review channels 
that go into how Apple makes it 

277
00:14:09,600 --> 00:14:12,500
very difficult to leave their 
install base to leave their 

278
00:14:12,500 --> 00:14:15,400
ecosystem. 
Once you've become part of it, 

279
00:14:15,900 --> 00:14:17,700
In it. 
You've used iMessage, you've 

280
00:14:17,700 --> 00:14:20,000
signed up for the Apple card. 
You have the Apple savings 

281
00:14:20,000 --> 00:14:22,300
account. 
You have the Apple notes app. 

282
00:14:22,300 --> 00:14:25,000
You have all your photos 
uploaded to Apple photos. 

283
00:14:25,200 --> 00:14:28,200
You have so many different 
things that Apple has done to 

284
00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:30,900
keep you in part of their 
ecosystem, that it's nearly 

285
00:14:30,900 --> 00:14:34,400
impossible to leave this install
base and go to a competitor like

286
00:14:34,400 --> 00:14:37,000
Android. 
It becomes burdensome ownerís, 

287
00:14:37,000 --> 00:14:38,700
something that you don't want to
do. 

288
00:14:39,100 --> 00:14:43,300
So, the install base is a golden
install base of high income 

289
00:14:43,300 --> 00:14:47,400
consumers, a lot of 
discretionary Money to spend on 

290
00:14:47,400 --> 00:14:51,500
services and that's what apple 
is a master at taking this 

291
00:14:51,500 --> 00:14:54,900
golden install base and 
monetizing them through the 

292
00:14:54,900 --> 00:14:57,900
sales of all of these services 
with apple. 

293
00:14:58,100 --> 00:15:00,900
Everything is the ecosystem. 
That's the moat. 

294
00:15:00,900 --> 00:15:03,500
That's the value proposition. 
That's the intrinsic value 

295
00:15:03,500 --> 00:15:05,300
driver. 
That's the story of Apple. 

296
00:15:05,400 --> 00:15:09,500
That is the investment thesis, 
wrapped up in one word, its 

297
00:15:09,500 --> 00:15:13,400
ecosystem, if the ecosystem is 
not existent for Apple, if it 

298
00:15:13,400 --> 00:15:16,800
gets torn apart or destroyed, I 
would say My full position and 

299
00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:19,100
apple. 
If the ecosystem remains intact,

300
00:15:19,100 --> 00:15:22,300
if it grows stronger, I maintain
my position and apple. 

301
00:15:22,500 --> 00:15:25,200
It's all reliant on the 
ecosystem. 

302
00:15:25,300 --> 00:15:27,700
So, I think this is another 
correct take from Dan eyes. 

303
00:15:27,700 --> 00:15:30,600
I think he's spot on here. 
As long as Apple can maintain 

304
00:15:30,600 --> 00:15:32,700
their masterfully designed 
ecosystem. 

305
00:15:32,700 --> 00:15:34,600
They'll find ways to monetize 
it. 

306
00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:37,500
They'll find ways to grow their 
free cash flow. 

307
00:15:37,500 --> 00:15:40,700
So overall I agree with Dan Ives
on as analysis here. 

308
00:15:40,700 --> 00:15:43,600
I think that this has been an 
amazing Buy in. 

309
00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:47,700
Plain sight, the ecosystem has 
Has been underrated by investors

310
00:15:47,700 --> 00:15:50,400
contain Lee discounted the 
strength of it over the past 

311
00:15:50,400 --> 00:15:52,900
five years. 
Investors that recognized the 

312
00:15:52,900 --> 00:15:57,200
power of the ecosystem early on 
reaped the rewards and one of 

313
00:15:57,208 --> 00:15:59,000
those investors a pretty good 
one. 

314
00:15:59,000 --> 00:16:01,600
I think his name was Warren. 
Buffett you recognize that 

315
00:16:01,600 --> 00:16:05,400
ecosystem a long time period 
ago, he bought 30 billion 

316
00:16:05,400 --> 00:16:09,000
dollars of the company and I 
think his Equity stake now is 

317
00:16:09,000 --> 00:16:13,700
somewhere around 170 billion 
dollars he's beat out. 

318
00:16:13,800 --> 00:16:16,300
Everyone else. 
Buffett Remains the Out. 

319
00:16:16,400 --> 00:16:18,600
Now, of course, we can't forget 
about Microsoft. 

320
00:16:18,600 --> 00:16:20,300
This is another pretty good 
company. 

321
00:16:20,300 --> 00:16:22,800
That's on a good streak. 
This year, I have a holding in 

322
00:16:22,800 --> 00:16:26,700
this company 55,000 dollars, 
similar to Apple but not quite 

323
00:16:26,700 --> 00:16:28,000
as much gains. 
This one's up. 

324
00:16:28,000 --> 00:16:30,900
Twelve thousand dollars. 
Microsoft has a couple bad 

325
00:16:30,900 --> 00:16:33,900
pieces of news coming out. 
Just in the past day or two. 

326
00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:37,800
The news is that Microsoft says 
it could abandon the Activision,

327
00:16:37,800 --> 00:16:40,700
Blizzard deal. 
If the judge delays, it they say

328
00:16:40,700 --> 00:16:43,200
the first day of the week long 
hearing that could determine the

329
00:16:43,200 --> 00:16:45,700
outcome of Microsoft 70 billion 
dollar acquisition. 

330
00:16:45,800 --> 00:16:49,400
Addition of the video game, 
giant Activision Blizzard opened

331
00:16:49,400 --> 00:16:52,900
Thursday with a promise from 
Microsoft, if a federal judge 

332
00:16:52,900 --> 00:16:56,600
grants an injunction that would 
delay, the deals closing, 

333
00:16:56,800 --> 00:16:59,700
Microsoft could abandon the deal
altogether. 

334
00:17:00,300 --> 00:17:03,200
So they wanted to let the judge 
know that the if you even delay 

335
00:17:03,200 --> 00:17:05,800
this deal then we're probably 
going to we're probably gonna 

336
00:17:05,800 --> 00:17:09,200
scrap it at that point. 
Microsoft's lawyer said quote, 

337
00:17:09,200 --> 00:17:11,900
this is going to decide whether 
or not the deal goes forward. 

338
00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:15,300
She said that if this case were 
to be delayed or lost here, 

339
00:17:15,900 --> 00:17:19,300
Would be quote, a three-year 
administrative nightmare. 

340
00:17:19,800 --> 00:17:23,599
So even though Microsoft could 
perpetually fund, a lawsuit 

341
00:17:23,700 --> 00:17:26,500
forever, they really could 
afford to hire the best lawyers 

342
00:17:26,500 --> 00:17:29,300
forever, that wouldn't be the 
best thing for the shareholders.

343
00:17:29,300 --> 00:17:31,600
This company wants the cash to 
go to shareholders. 

344
00:17:31,600 --> 00:17:35,500
So they don't want to have an 
ongoing years long nightmare of 

345
00:17:35,500 --> 00:17:38,200
a court case here. 
Microsoft is always having to 

346
00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:40,900
weigh what is best for 
shareholders to continue 

347
00:17:40,900 --> 00:17:43,900
fighting this or to let it go. 
Now, I personally think this is 

348
00:17:43,900 --> 00:17:46,700
a bit of a shame. 
I realize that Microsoft is a 

349
00:17:46,700 --> 00:17:50,800
very large corporation so people
naturally have a bias against 

350
00:17:50,800 --> 00:17:53,100
the company. 
They see, big bad Microsoft, 

351
00:17:53,100 --> 00:17:55,800
they see that they want to buy 
another big company and they 

352
00:17:55,800 --> 00:17:57,100
think that that should be 
blocked. 

353
00:17:57,100 --> 00:18:00,300
A big company, shouldn't buy 
another big company but 

354
00:18:00,300 --> 00:18:03,800
Microsoft is not the biggest 
player in gaming. 

355
00:18:03,800 --> 00:18:07,400
And in console gaming, in fact, 
Sony is much bigger than 

356
00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:10,600
Microsoft. 
In terms of consoles, Sony has 

357
00:18:10,600 --> 00:18:12,900
around double the market. 
Share of Microsoft. 

358
00:18:12,900 --> 00:18:16,700
Sony is the Monopoly when it 
comes to Console gaming. 

359
00:18:17,100 --> 00:18:21,100
So Sony's arguing, that 
Microsoft is the Monopoly while.

360
00:18:21,300 --> 00:18:25,000
Ironically Sony's the Monopoly 
Sony's arguing, that Microsoft 

361
00:18:25,000 --> 00:18:28,300
will be exclusive, while 
ironically, Sony has more 

362
00:18:28,300 --> 00:18:32,300
exclusive titles in Microsoft, 
Sony's arguing, that Microsoft 

363
00:18:32,300 --> 00:18:36,600
will be anti-competitive, while 
ironically Sony has far more 

364
00:18:36,600 --> 00:18:38,600
anti competitive when it comes 
to gaming. 

365
00:18:38,800 --> 00:18:42,000
One example of that is Microsoft
wants to put the Activision 

366
00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:44,600
Blizzard games on the Nintendo 
switch. 

367
00:18:44,700 --> 00:18:47,000
Sony does not. 
Want that because it would cause

368
00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:51,200
greater competition. 
So in this case, every bit of 

369
00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:55,600
data points to Microsoft being 
L2 by Activision Blizzard, it 

370
00:18:55,600 --> 00:18:58,300
doesn't restrict competition. 
It increases competition, 

371
00:18:58,800 --> 00:19:03,800
Microsoft has gone so far to 
even guarantee ten years of not 

372
00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:07,100
making any of their titles 
exclusive and that still has not

373
00:19:07,100 --> 00:19:08,400
been enough to push this 
through. 

374
00:19:08,700 --> 00:19:10,700
So I think it will be a shame if
this deal doesn't go through. 

375
00:19:11,100 --> 00:19:14,500
Now, there is an outcome, that's
also not good. 

376
00:19:14,500 --> 00:19:17,800
If the deal doesn't go through 
Through with Microsoft, not only

377
00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:20,500
did they have to pay all these 
lawyer fees and they have to pay

378
00:19:20,500 --> 00:19:22,600
for all the expense of trying to
do this deal. 

379
00:19:22,900 --> 00:19:25,900
But there is a breakup fee, 
Microsoft agreed to pay 

380
00:19:25,900 --> 00:19:28,200
Activision Blizzard three 
billion dollars. 

381
00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:31,600
If the deal doesn't go through, 
if we look at how this impacts 

382
00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:33,700
their free, cash flows, we can 
take a look here. 

383
00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:36,400
This was the free cash flow and 
2022. 

384
00:19:36,600 --> 00:19:38,500
It was sixty five billion 
dollars. 

385
00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:42,300
So paying Activision. 
Blizzard three billion dollars 

386
00:19:42,700 --> 00:19:45,600
would bring Microsoft's Revenue.
Would bring Mike. 

387
00:19:45,700 --> 00:19:48,200
Our sauce free cash flow down to
this red line. 

388
00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:52,400
It be right around there. 
That is a decent chunk of cash. 

389
00:19:52,500 --> 00:19:56,400
Even for a company, as big as 
Microsoft so they have a pretty 

390
00:19:56,400 --> 00:20:00,100
hefty fee to pay hair. 
Will this overall impact the 

391
00:20:00,100 --> 00:20:02,900
long-term story of Microsoft, 
does it turn the company from a 

392
00:20:02,900 --> 00:20:04,700
by to a cell? 
Not at all? 

393
00:20:04,700 --> 00:20:06,500
It's not going to affect the 
long-term. 

394
00:20:06,700 --> 00:20:09,100
I think over the long term 
story, this is like a speeding 

395
00:20:09,100 --> 00:20:12,300
ticket, but three billion 
dollars is a pretty pricey 

396
00:20:12,300 --> 00:20:15,700
speeding ticket even for a 
company like Microsoft for those

397
00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:18,900
You who are in the Arbitrage 
play and currently own 

398
00:20:18,900 --> 00:20:21,700
Activision Blizzard. 
That's like a consolation prize.

399
00:20:21,700 --> 00:20:24,900
If you don't get Microsoft 
buying the company here, at 

400
00:20:24,900 --> 00:20:27,100
least you get infused with a lot
of cash. 

401
00:20:27,100 --> 00:20:30,200
So they'll have a big boost to 
their balance sheet, which will 

402
00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:31,900
make the company worth a little 
bit more. 

403
00:20:31,900 --> 00:20:34,900
So you have currently around a 
sixty five billion dollar market

404
00:20:34,900 --> 00:20:38,400
cap tack on another three 
billion to that that will help 

405
00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:40,100
out if this merger doesn't 
happen. 

406
00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:42,800
But when it comes right down to 
it, this is the reason that I 

407
00:20:42,808 --> 00:20:45,600
didn't end up doing that merger 
Arbitrage. 

408
00:20:45,700 --> 00:20:49,100
Play, I heavily considered it. 
I thought that Microsoft has the

409
00:20:49,100 --> 00:20:51,700
better Case by far. 
I think they had the better 

410
00:20:51,700 --> 00:20:54,400
Court arguments, I think the 
data is on their side. 

411
00:20:54,700 --> 00:20:58,800
But when it comes down to it, a 
judge is one person making a 

412
00:20:58,800 --> 00:21:02,500
judgment call and they can 
decide whatever they want and 

413
00:21:02,500 --> 00:21:05,600
they can rationalize and justify
it based on any various data, 

414
00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:09,000
they want to nitpick. 
So a judge really is hard to 

415
00:21:09,000 --> 00:21:12,700
determine and because of the 
unpredictability of an Arbitrage

416
00:21:12,700 --> 00:21:15,600
play, like this, I decided to 
pass it this time. 

417
00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:18,300
The other piece of news that I 
do think is noteworthy and 

418
00:21:18,300 --> 00:21:22,300
something that should be taken 
into account for investors is 

419
00:21:22,300 --> 00:21:25,700
the market rally this year. 
It has been exceptional across 

420
00:21:25,700 --> 00:21:27,800
the board. 
The indices have gone higher The

421
00:21:27,800 --> 00:21:31,700
Wall Street Journal says that 
the 2023 rally has defied all 

422
00:21:31,700 --> 00:21:34,100
expectations. 
If we look at the actual 

423
00:21:34,100 --> 00:21:37,500
performance here, the S&P 500 is
up around 15 percent. 

424
00:21:37,700 --> 00:21:39,600
The Dow Jones is up around 4 
percent. 

425
00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:43,800
So across the board of very good
rally and this is especially 

426
00:21:43,800 --> 00:21:47,700
incredible because there's a lot
of people that were sewing. 

427
00:21:47,700 --> 00:21:50,700
Fair that were spreading 
spreading concern about 

428
00:21:50,700 --> 00:21:53,800
different issues left and right.
It was almost difficult to find 

429
00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:57,100
people that were level-headed. 
They had a steady tone and said 

430
00:21:57,100 --> 00:22:00,000
to stay fully invested in the 
market, and not concern yourself

431
00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:02,000
with all these various things 
going on. 

432
00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:05,000
For example, one of the big 
things that happened earlier 

433
00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:08,200
this year, was the banking 
crisis, the regional Banks going

434
00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:10,000
bankrupt. 
Remember that? 

435
00:22:10,100 --> 00:22:12,200
Remember how the market was 
supposed to crash? 

436
00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:14,200
After that? 
What happened with the banking 

437
00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:16,600
crisis is seems to have just 
Come and gone. 

438
00:22:17,100 --> 00:22:21,000
We had the US, default, remember
that, how the u.s. wasn't going 

439
00:22:21,000 --> 00:22:23,400
to up the debt limit? 
How there is an argument in 

440
00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:25,700
Congress? 
Do you know how many videos I 

441
00:22:25,700 --> 00:22:31,200
made about the US, default? 
Exactly, zero that interested me

442
00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:33,300
to know amount. 
The reason why is because that 

443
00:22:33,300 --> 00:22:36,700
always ends up the exact, same 
politicians, both argue to get 

444
00:22:36,700 --> 00:22:40,100
stuff that they want packed into
the bill and the US continues to

445
00:22:40,100 --> 00:22:42,800
go forward, and it doesn't 
affect the stock market. 

446
00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:45,900
I've been around long enough to 
see that story play out over And

447
00:22:45,900 --> 00:22:47,800
over again. 
And the same thing with the 

448
00:22:47,800 --> 00:22:50,400
banking crisis. 
This is something that I was not

449
00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:53,200
concerned about. 
I stayed fully invested during 

450
00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:57,100
this time period, the u.s. moves
on from crisis, is like this 

451
00:22:57,100 --> 00:23:00,900
over and over again, even when 
they do have a material impact 

452
00:23:00,900 --> 00:23:04,300
like covid, or even the Great 
Recession, eventually the market

453
00:23:04,300 --> 00:23:07,200
recovers that has been the story
since the beginning. 

454
00:23:07,500 --> 00:23:10,000
Now, there's a lot of people 
that unfortunately bought into 

455
00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:13,000
all the fair and doom spread 
around all of these news 

456
00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:14,900
stories. 
And there's a lot of people 

457
00:23:14,900 --> 00:23:18,000
sitting on The sidelines right 
now, the Wall Street Journal 

458
00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:21,200
notes, that ultimately, those 
who stayed out of the market 

459
00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:23,500
this year. 
And fair of another sell-off, 

460
00:23:23,500 --> 00:23:28,800
missed out on a robust gain, can
you imagine missing out on this 

461
00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:30,000
performance? 
This year? 

462
00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:33,300
If I had missed out on this 
year, I would have missed out on

463
00:23:33,300 --> 00:23:37,000
sixty, eight thousand dollars in
gained so far, 17 percent 

464
00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:40,100
returns an enormous run for this
portfolio. 

465
00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:42,900
This is the reason it is 
critical to not try to time the 

466
00:23:42,900 --> 00:23:45,500
market, the stay invested all 
the time. 

467
00:23:45,700 --> 00:23:47,800
All of these people in the 
industry are always trying to. 

468
00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:49,800
Guess what the next blow up is 
going to be. 

469
00:23:50,100 --> 00:23:53,400
If this year has shown anything,
it is that it's difficult to 

470
00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:55,900
predict which headline-grabbing 
event will wind up. 

471
00:23:55,900 --> 00:23:58,600
Having a lasting impact on the 
market returns. 

472
00:23:58,900 --> 00:24:01,700
That is exactly correct. 
This has been said before, but 

473
00:24:01,700 --> 00:24:04,700
I'll say it again. 
You could have the entire 

474
00:24:04,700 --> 00:24:07,400
release of the Wall Street 
Journal headlines from here 

475
00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:12,300
until the end of 2023, and even 
knowing exactly what headline 

476
00:24:12,300 --> 00:24:15,300
news is going to happen for the 
next six months. 

477
00:24:15,700 --> 00:24:18,300
Would not be able to guess where
the markets going to end. 

478
00:24:18,500 --> 00:24:20,600
They do not correlate with each 
other. 

479
00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:23,300
Sometimes they end up being 
inversely correlated. 

480
00:24:23,300 --> 00:24:26,300
So is this Market rally defying?
All expectations. 

481
00:24:26,500 --> 00:24:29,200
I think it's an incredible rally
but it hasn't defied, all 

482
00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:32,200
expectations and I do believe. 
There's reason to believe that 

483
00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:35,900
the market rally will continue. 
We have news of the greatest 

484
00:24:35,900 --> 00:24:39,100
wealth transfer in history. 
We have news that baby boomer 

485
00:24:39,100 --> 00:24:42,900
generation has an enormous 
amount of stored wealth more 

486
00:24:42,900 --> 00:24:45,400
than they're going to be able to
use within their lifetime. 

487
00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:48,400
There's going to be a large 
windfall of inheritance 

488
00:24:48,700 --> 00:24:53,000
specifically with Millennials 
year after year, for the next 30

489
00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:55,700
Years, Millennials will inherit 
more and more money. 

490
00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:59,100
This is going to be a massive 
windfall of spending and 

491
00:24:59,100 --> 00:25:01,300
something that should continue 
to propel the markets. 

492
00:25:01,400 --> 00:25:04,200
So in my opinion, I think 
investors would still be better 

493
00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:06,400
served today. 
Focusing on high quality 

494
00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:09,100
companies, that can persevere 
during different environments 

495
00:25:09,100 --> 00:25:12,500
than trying to predict exactly 
when Doom and Gloom will strike 

496
00:25:12,500 --> 00:25:15,100
and how bad it will be. 
Now, of course, it's Friday. 

497
00:25:15,100 --> 00:25:17,600
So we looked Tick-Tock for our 
financial advice. 

498
00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:21,100
Here is Two Guys. 
These are two young looking guys

499
00:25:21,100 --> 00:25:25,200
that are discussing when they'll
finally make it with money and 

500
00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:27,100
how much money you need to have 
to be happy. 

501
00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:29,900
You said, once you have 20 
million dollars, like you can 

502
00:25:29,900 --> 00:25:32,300
have everything unless you want 
to buy a jet or a yacht like 

503
00:25:32,300 --> 00:25:34,100
your set. 
But for me I'm like a burn 

504
00:25:34,100 --> 00:25:37,200
through 20 million and like, 
dude, I could spend 20 million 

505
00:25:37,200 --> 00:25:39,900
before you could say 20 million.
Like and I even think like a 

506
00:25:39,900 --> 00:25:43,000
hundred millions, not a lot. 
Let me just pause it right 

507
00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:45,400
there. 
He just said that he could spend

508
00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:48,500
time. 20 million before you can 
even say 20 million. 

509
00:25:49,300 --> 00:25:50,900
What are these guys talking 
about? 

510
00:25:50,900 --> 00:25:54,000
What are they spending twenty 
million dollars on and he said 

511
00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:56,900
that he could burn through a 
hundred million dollars. 

512
00:25:57,700 --> 00:26:01,500
I think that they're I take it 
back, the market has gone to 

513
00:26:01,500 --> 00:26:04,200
high there needs to be a bear 
Market. 

514
00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:06,600
There needs to be some type of 
implosion everything. 

515
00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:10,300
I just said, I take it all back.
We still have this going on in 

516
00:26:10,300 --> 00:26:13,100
the market today like I burn 
through 20 million and like, 

517
00:26:13,300 --> 00:26:15,500
dude, I could spend 20 million 
before you could. 

518
00:26:15,700 --> 00:26:18,300
A 20 million like and I even 
think like, a hundred millions 

519
00:26:18,300 --> 00:26:22,000
not a lot. 
How was 100 million not a lot? 

520
00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:25,300
What does that even mean? 
100 million is what it's more 

521
00:26:25,300 --> 00:26:28,500
than what the average American, 
which the average American is 

522
00:26:28,500 --> 00:26:32,100
incredibly, Rich has tons of 
luxuries, it's more than what 

523
00:26:32,100 --> 00:26:35,200
they earn in 50 average. 
Life times. 

524
00:26:35,500 --> 00:26:38,600
A hundred million dollars is a 
ton of money. 

525
00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:40,600
I know, like, would you buy an 
80 million dollar debt? 

526
00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:42,700
Let's say, you know, you get the
point where, what are you manage

527
00:26:42,700 --> 00:26:44,300
it? 
Are you ever going to stop like 

528
00:26:44,300 --> 00:26:47,700
at what amount of money are you?
To be like okay I'm gonna chill 

529
00:26:47,700 --> 00:26:49,000
out. 
I'm gonna be like retire, like 

530
00:26:49,000 --> 00:26:52,000
chose my kids, never never never
know. 

531
00:26:52,300 --> 00:26:55,100
Alright they're ambitious I 
guess these kids look like 

532
00:26:55,100 --> 00:26:58,400
they're like 17 years old and 
they're talking about growing up

533
00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:00,900
numbers and and talking about 
how they're never going to be 

534
00:27:00,900 --> 00:27:04,200
satisfied when you get in the 
workforce and you actually earn 

535
00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:06,600
a decent living, you save up 
money. 

536
00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:09,400
There comes a time where you 
actually want to stop working 

537
00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:12,000
especially if you're not 
enjoying your job more than you 

538
00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:14,600
enjoy leisure time. 
I've actually had this 

539
00:27:14,600 --> 00:27:18,700
discussion With a friend, a long
time ago, we were discussing the

540
00:27:18,700 --> 00:27:22,700
amounts that we would fill 
pretty set in stone of filling, 

541
00:27:22,700 --> 00:27:25,000
like we've made it feeling like 
we have enough money to retire 

542
00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:27,400
and do what we want. 
And the number that we came 

543
00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:30,900
around to as around four million
dollars, that was it? 

544
00:27:31,100 --> 00:27:34,700
Four million was what we 
consider to be a decent point to

545
00:27:34,708 --> 00:27:38,700
achieve as a lifetime goal of 
saving and investing anything 

546
00:27:38,700 --> 00:27:41,100
beyond that. 
Would be incredibly good, but 

547
00:27:41,100 --> 00:27:44,200
for Millions enough that you can
just with dividends earn over a 

548
00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:47,800
hundred thousand dollars per Per
year, earning 100,000 dollars 

549
00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:51,600
per year, passively is a very 
luxurious retirement, you can do

550
00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:53,800
a lot with that. 
You can travel, you can see the 

551
00:27:53,800 --> 00:27:55,700
world. 
You don't need to buy a private 

552
00:27:55,700 --> 00:27:58,700
jet, you can fly in a plane and 
where some are pods it's going 

553
00:27:58,700 --> 00:28:00,200
to work out fine doing it that 
way. 

554
00:28:00,300 --> 00:28:03,100
So, we have a bit of a 
disconnect here, my goal is more

555
00:28:03,100 --> 00:28:04,900
in the range of four million 
dollars. 

556
00:28:04,900 --> 00:28:06,600
I think that's a pretty good 
amount of money. 

557
00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:08,100
Hopefully, I'll get there 
someday. 

558
00:28:08,100 --> 00:28:10,100
I'll share it with you along the
way if I ever do. 

559
00:28:10,300 --> 00:28:12,800
But saying that a hundred 
million dollars is not a lot of 

560
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:16,200
money is completely insane. 
Once again kicked Hawk has done 

561
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:19,700
it with the unexpected Financial
advice, that's the episode for 

562
00:28:19,700 --> 00:28:21,200
today. 
I hope you enjoyed and I'll see 

563
00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:22,000
you in the next one.
