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Welcome everyone. 
We have a lot to get to in this 

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episode. 
A lot of exciting things to talk

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about. 
First of all my portfolio, the 

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story fund here. 
This is a tech portfolio that I 

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started late 2020s early 2021 
and it's just getting crushed. 

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So we're going to take a look at
this. 

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I'll give you some thoughts on 
it. 

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The rest of the market though is
not doing well today, so it's 

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not exactly unique to my 
portfolio. 

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We have the NASDAQ down, 3%, the
Russell 2K down, three-point 38 

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percent, the S&P 500 down, 2% in
the Dow Jones down 1.4 Or 

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percent, you can see on the S&P 
500 right here, just across the 

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board. 
This tree map shows that there's

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really only one category that's 
holding up. 

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Okay, well, you might count 
Healthcare in there so 

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Healthcare and consumer 
defensive they're holding up 

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okay today. 
Everything else is just getting 

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crushed. 
Big Tech included across the 

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board most of your portfolio's 
unless you have very specific 

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ones are not having a good time.
Now we're gonna be discussing 

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this as well as Palin. 
Tears earnings report, I'll give

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you my thoughts on it. 
We also have some interesting 

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Things to look at like this note
from the CEO of uber to their 

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company. 
I think it's highly reflective 

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of the entire Market environment
right now. 

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In fact, I think the single Uber
note really summarizes it, so 

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we'll be going through that. 
And then we have some other 

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charts and graphs will be 
looking at that. 

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I think are very applicable to 
this market. 

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So as always, we have a lot to 
discuss. 

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Let's go ahead and Jump Right 
In. 

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Like I said, I have two 
portfolios. 

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The story fund is a tech center 
growth portfolio that I track 

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every single week and I 
Benchmark it against the S&P 

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500. 
It's Not all of my net worth. 

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They're all of my money. 
I have another portfolio called 

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the passive income account that 
I track on a different channel. 

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That is a dividend growth 
portfolio. 

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So on this one, my goal is to 
outperformed the S&P 500. 

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That's kind of the experiment 
that I'm running and I gave 

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myself until the end of 2025 
that's when I want to beat it by

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that point in time. 
Now, right now it's not going. 

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Well, this is a text centered 
growth portfolio where I focus 

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not just on growth at any cost 
but I'm trying to really An 

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emphasis on companies that are 
growing, but they also generate 

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enormous amounts of free cash 
flow. 

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So Amazon, Google Microsoft. 
You know, I have all of big Tech

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in here. 
I'm basically all in on big Tech

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as well as a few other companies
like Salesforce Adobe Ali, Baba 

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Netflix. 
So I have a few other in there 

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that I have some big weightings 
but overall again this is a tech

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girl portfolio. 
I'm focusing on High free cash 

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flow businesses that I think can
stand on their own two legs, 

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even if the cost of capital and 
the interest rates in a Elation 

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run higher. 
I think these companies will do 

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well. 
So that's the reason that I 

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continue to stick with them 
despite the market selling 

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selling out of them like crazy. 
Now, right now, the portfolio is

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being hit really hard. 
Just today, I'm down two point. 

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Eight, three percent this is 
moving around like crazy, it's 

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down 3%, 2%. 
You know it's trading every two 

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seconds but that's another $2600
just today. 

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And that's how it's been like 
the last you know, the last 

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month I'm down 25%, so thirty 
thousand dollars. 

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So the majority of losses have 
been just over the past 30 Is 

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but regardless overall we're now
down 39 thousand dollars on this

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portfolio. 
If I compare this against the 

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S&P 500 which I track every 
single deposit at the same time 

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periods. 
If I deposit money into my 

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portfolio? 
I act as if I put that same 

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money into the S&P 500. 
So as you can see, what the 

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story fun being the Blue Line, 
the S&P 500 being the red line, 

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the story front is actually been
ahead of the S&P 500, the 

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majority of the time since the 
start. 

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It was beating it throughout 
2020 and 2021 ever so. 

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Slightly, but at least keeping 
up with the S&P 500, and then a 

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dramatic change happen. 
Come November of twenty 

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Twenty-One so late 2021, we have
a few major factors change, 

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first of all investors, decide 
that they no longer have any 

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tolerance for money-losing 
companies. 

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If your company is a 
money-losing company that has 

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profits in the future and and 
big ambitious promises and 

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dreams of the future investors 
don't care. 

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They want money right now, real 
money undiluted, free, cash, 

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flow, Companies today not in the
future. 

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That's the first thing that 
happened in November of twenty 

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Twenty-One they have no longer 
investors, have no longer any 

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tolerance for money-losing 
companies and I'll show examples

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of that in different things. 
Companies are doing right now to

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radically try to become free 
cash flow positive. 

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But another thing happened, you 
looked at the fed. 

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The FED is Raising interest 
rates. 

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Inflation is out of control. 
This concerns investors with 

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tech stocks. 
So tech stocks in general, start

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to trade down significantly more
Or than other companies like the

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oil trade, the defensive, the 
Commodities, the pharmaceutical 

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companies tech stocks. 
In general, get hit worse than 

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the rest of the environment. 
And then we also have increased 

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fares of recession, because if 
that is Raising interest rates, 

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they're trying to thread this 
needle, they're trying to do the

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soft landing, and that seems 
like it's going to be very 

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difficult to do. 
So between the FED raising 

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interest rates the chance of a 
recession and we have the issue 

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with the whole money-losing 
companies that no longer 

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investors. 
Want you see? 

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The diversion start to happen 
November of twenty Twenty-One 

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and my portfolio starts to trade
down more than the S&P 500. 

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Now, don't get me wrong. 
It doesn't look that dramatic, 

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but the S&P 500 went from 25% in
the green 22 percent. 

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So it's given up all of its 
gains, but my portfolio has 

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created down to 28% than the 
red. 

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And that's because of a lot of 
different companies. 

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I hold like Amazon and Netflix 
and and the rest of big Tech 

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they're not faring well right 
now. 

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Now, you might be wondering why 
is this story fund? 

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Why is this portfolio? 
Leo down, 28 percent, almost 30 

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percent. 
When I started it, late 2020, 

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shouldn't it be kind of flat or 
down? 

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Maybe like, five to ten percent.
That's kind of true. 

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If you didn't take into account,
when I actually built up, the 

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majority of this portfolio, when
actually deposited the majority 

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of money and this is the 
unfortunate problem, right? 

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So I did, in fact, start this 
portfolio, the last two months 

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of 2020. 
I put in thirty seven thousand 

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dollars to kick it off. 
That was my initial deposit and 

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had I just Up there and didn't 
deposit any more money. 

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My performance would be pretty 
good. 

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It'd probably be like, you know,
I'd be kind of flat right now. 

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I wouldn't be losing 30 thousand
dollars, right. 

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So I'd be decent, I would have 
just preserve the amount of 

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money that I that I initially 
deposited. 

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Unfortunately, I was reading the
same reports as everyone else. 

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Inflation was 78 percent and I 
have money sitting in savings. 

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Stinking you know I'm young and 
I'm going to guarantee to lose 

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eight percent of my money in one
year, letting it sit in cash 

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with no interest rate. 
Right. 

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So that's just a guaranteed loss
and I realized that I could lose

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money in the market but at least
I have a chance of upside, 

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right? 
And having a longer investment 

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time Horizon I just thought you 
know I'm going to risk it in the

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market, take my money out of 
savings, put it in the in all 

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these different companies and I 
put fifty seven thousand dollars

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in during the middle of 2020 
during kind of the peak part of 

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the market. 
Really get the QQQ, the middle 

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of 2020, was kind of the highest
part of the market. 

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So, this money right here, this 
57,000, Is it was deposited in 

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2021 was in hindsight at like 
the worst time I was buying a 

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lot of these companies right 
before they started the tumble. 

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Now of course if I could go back
in time I wouldn't have put this

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additional fifty seven thousand 
dollars into the market during 

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2021. 
Right. 

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I wouldn't have bought at the 
high but that's the way things 

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work hindsight's 20/20. 
I had no clue what the markets 

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going to do in the future for 
all. 

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I know it could have gone up 30%
to could have gone down 20% 

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nobody knows so that's the 
unfortunate problem with reality

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you You can't see the future, 
you can't go back in time. 

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So I made a decision to take a 
lot of money out of savings. 

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Put it into the market, wasn't 
the right decision in hindsight 

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but that's where we are right 
now. 

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Now going forward, I'm going to 
be doing the same thing that 

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I've always done, which is to 
not, try to time the market, but

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just invest through thick and 
thin continually keep dollar 

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cost averaging in. 
And I plan on doing that more 

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the second half of this year. 
I've already bought 33 thousand 

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dollars of stocks. 
This year I'll continue to buy 

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more and through 2023 and 2024 
and so on and so Fourth because 

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this is a tough year so far. 
In fact, it's one of the worst 

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years on record. 
And I don't think every year is 

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going to be like this. 
So maybe it will be like this 

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for the next year or two but I 
don't think I'll be like this 

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for the next 10 years. 
I think eventually the market 

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will want to own these highly 
profitable, free cash flow 

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generated companies. 
And when they do, I'll already 

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have a significant stake and I 
think very low prices. 

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So even though right now losing 
this money, 38,000 dollars in 

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the red is not fun. 
I'd rather have the market go up

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every single day and this can 
be, you know, it requires Has a 

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certain temperament a certain 
emotion to keep a level head and

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not do anything rash. 
That's the challenge here, but 

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I'm not going to do that. 
I'm going to stick my plan. 

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Continue dollar cost averaging 
into these companies and we'll 

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see how this goes over the next 
few years. 

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We'll go through it together. 
So that's the update for now. 

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Let's go ahead and move on to 
some news. 

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Now, the first bit of news is 
not fun news for palantir, 

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investors pounder, plunges, 20% 
on week, Revenue guidance and an

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earnings Miss. 
Now, I haven't gone over in 

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depth in this earnings report, 
but I did look at one part of 

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it, which is something that I 
always look at with this 

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earnings report. 
It is true that they had weak 

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Revenue guidance and that's a 
big No-No in this market. 

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You have to have extremely 
strong earnings and extremely 

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strong guidance to have just a 
flat result, just to have the 

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market not trade down. 
So on this week, guidance and 

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earnings Miss, they're going to 
go down 20% but another thing I 

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look at with pound tear and I 
think what's caused a big issue 

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of the stock over the timeline 
of it because if we look at it 

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right now it's from its IPO it's
down 16 percent. 

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So no investor in this one is in
the green, unless they've time 

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to buy and sell properly. 
Unless they bought it IPO and 

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sold after its big run up, 
right? 

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If you just held it from IPO, 
you're in the red, just like you

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are with so many other companies
at this point. 

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But the big issue that I've 
always highlighted with 

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palantir, and the reason that 
I've stayed away from the stock 

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is, I'm putting a strong 
preference on companies that 

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don't dilute the shareholder to 
a huge extent. 

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When I look at this type of 
chart, and I see the shares 

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outstanding for palantir, 
increase this much over time. 

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Is concerning the shares 
outstanding went from one point 

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seven two billion in 2020. 1.72.
Billion to two point zero two, 

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seven billion year over year 
with their latest quarterly 

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report year over year. 
They had 11%, share dilution, 

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you own, 11% less of the company
because the shares outstanding 

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continue to increase. 
That is a problem for investors 

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and the market doesn't want 
anything to do with this and 

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it's true that they have some 
free cash flow growth. 

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So they are growing some free 
cash. 

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Hello, but when you factor in 
share dilution, it's not enough.

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The market is not rewarding 
these type of companies anymore.

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So palantir, unfortunately faces
the same situation, so many 

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other companies do right now. 
They could get away with this 

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dilution maybe like a year or 
two ago. 

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00:10:44,300 --> 00:10:46,700
Not today, today's markets, not 
rewarding, these type of 

226
00:10:46,700 --> 00:10:49,500
companies, they have to have 
undiluted free, cash flow 

227
00:10:49,500 --> 00:10:51,600
generation. 
They have to have real earnings.

228
00:10:51,900 --> 00:10:54,600
If we look at the earnings 
reports I think they earn like 

229
00:10:54,600 --> 00:10:56,100
two cents or something, you 
know? 

230
00:10:56,100 --> 00:10:58,000
It's just it's not enough, 
right? 

231
00:10:58,000 --> 00:11:01,500
This company is earning barely 
any Any, any way that you look 

232
00:11:01,500 --> 00:11:03,600
at it? 
It's really not a cash flow 

233
00:11:03,600 --> 00:11:05,800
generative company. 
So that's kind of my quick take 

234
00:11:05,800 --> 00:11:09,200
on palantir right now. 
I have really no interest in 

235
00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:12,300
jumping in this company. 
I wish the investor sincerely 

236
00:11:12,300 --> 00:11:14,600
the best tenant. 
I hope that it turns around but 

237
00:11:15,000 --> 00:11:16,800
I think it's a difficult 
situation to be in. 

238
00:11:16,900 --> 00:11:19,700
Now, moving on the next news 
item is this email. 

239
00:11:19,700 --> 00:11:23,600
This note that the CEO of uber 
sent to his team and his company

240
00:11:24,100 --> 00:11:27,200
I was very impressed by this 
email from the CEO. 

241
00:11:27,200 --> 00:11:28,600
I don't know too much about 
them. 

242
00:11:29,200 --> 00:11:30,700
I'm not. 
Invested in Uber. 

243
00:11:30,900 --> 00:11:33,500
The stock has been having a very
difficult time this year, it's 

244
00:11:33,500 --> 00:11:36,200
down. 45%. 
So they're facing a lot of 

245
00:11:36,200 --> 00:11:38,300
pressures, and like many of 
these companies, like the pound 

246
00:11:38,300 --> 00:11:40,900
Tara's Spotify. 
Uber so on and so forth. 

247
00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:43,700
If they're not generating real 
profits, they're getting crushed

248
00:11:43,700 --> 00:11:47,400
right now and the CEO of uber 
has his response. 

249
00:11:47,400 --> 00:11:50,900
And again, I think it really is 
the best response and summarizes

250
00:11:50,900 --> 00:11:54,100
what's going on with the market.
He says, after earnings, I spent

251
00:11:54,100 --> 00:11:57,200
several days meeting investors 
in New York and Boston. 

252
00:11:57,300 --> 00:12:00,900
It's clear that the market is 
experiencing a Shift and we need

253
00:12:00,900 --> 00:12:04,000
to react accordingly. 
There's a seismic shift going 

254
00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:05,800
on. 
My meetings were super 

255
00:12:05,800 --> 00:12:09,200
clarifying and I wanted to share
some thoughts with all of you as

256
00:12:09,200 --> 00:12:12,000
you read them, please bear in 
mind that while investors don't 

257
00:12:12,000 --> 00:12:14,600
run the company, they do own the
company. 

258
00:12:15,000 --> 00:12:18,600
That's a CEO that I like his 
perspective, he's accurately 

259
00:12:18,800 --> 00:12:21,900
defining the relationship. 
Their investors do not run the 

260
00:12:21,900 --> 00:12:23,400
company but they own the 
company. 

261
00:12:23,500 --> 00:12:25,700
That's a CEO that understands 
the relationship of the 

262
00:12:25,700 --> 00:12:29,000
investors in the executives. 
He says they do own the company 

263
00:12:29,100 --> 00:12:31,100
and they've been trusted us with
running it. 

264
00:12:31,100 --> 00:12:34,600
Well, we get to set the strategy
and make the decisions, but we 

265
00:12:34,600 --> 00:12:36,500
need to do. 
So in a way that ultimately 

266
00:12:36,500 --> 00:12:39,900
serves our shareholders and 
their long-term interests and 

267
00:12:39,900 --> 00:12:42,300
then he goes on and outlines 
what investors are looking for 

268
00:12:42,300 --> 00:12:45,400
and I really think he knows it 
here in times of uncertainty 

269
00:12:45,400 --> 00:12:48,700
investors look for safety. 
They recognize that we are a 

270
00:12:48,700 --> 00:12:51,900
scaled leader in our categories,
but they don't know how much 

271
00:12:51,900 --> 00:12:54,200
that's worth channeling Jerry 
Maguire. 

272
00:12:54,400 --> 00:12:58,500
We need to show them the money. 
We have made a ton of progress 

273
00:12:58,500 --> 00:13:01,900
in terms of profitability. 
Setting a target for five 

274
00:13:01,900 --> 00:13:05,500
billion and adjusted ibadah in 
2024, but the goalposts have 

275
00:13:05,500 --> 00:13:08,300
change. 
Now it's about free, cash flow. 

276
00:13:08,400 --> 00:13:10,900
We can and should get there 
fast. 

277
00:13:11,200 --> 00:13:14,100
That's what he says. 
It's now about free cash flow. 

278
00:13:14,600 --> 00:13:17,400
There will be companies that 
will put their heads in the sand

279
00:13:17,400 --> 00:13:20,500
and are slow to Pivot. 
The tough truth is that many of 

280
00:13:20,500 --> 00:13:24,500
them will not survive. 
So right there, that highlighted

281
00:13:24,500 --> 00:13:28,800
portion he says that now it's 
about free cash flow now 

282
00:13:29,000 --> 00:13:31,600
obviously, it's Always been 
about free cash flow companies 

283
00:13:31,600 --> 00:13:34,900
have always been about earning 
cash flow in the Futures, but 

284
00:13:34,900 --> 00:13:37,400
instead of putting that cash 
flow, some point in the 

285
00:13:37,400 --> 00:13:41,100
long-term future investors. 
Want it now and I'm in that same

286
00:13:41,100 --> 00:13:44,800
group, I've decided ultimately 
that, unless the company is 

287
00:13:44,800 --> 00:13:47,800
going to be free cash flow 
immediately in the future. 

288
00:13:47,800 --> 00:13:52,000
Like within the next year, I'm 
not investing in it so I agree 

289
00:13:52,000 --> 00:13:54,000
with the Uber CEO hair 
investors. 

290
00:13:54,000 --> 00:13:56,500
Want free cash flow. 
Investing is always about cash 

291
00:13:56,500 --> 00:13:59,000
flow but the timeline of when 
you're going to get it is 

292
00:13:59,200 --> 00:14:01,100
closer. 
Er no investor wants to look at 

293
00:14:01,108 --> 00:14:03,700
free cash flow five to ten years
in the future anymore. 

294
00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:07,600
So in my opinion, this Uber CEOs
dead-on, he's perfectly accurate

295
00:14:07,600 --> 00:14:10,200
investors, want free cash flow 
generative companies. 

296
00:14:10,200 --> 00:14:12,800
Today, companies that can prove 
that they can generate real 

297
00:14:12,800 --> 00:14:16,200
profits today not five years in 
the future, not 10 years in the 

298
00:14:16,200 --> 00:14:19,800
future, we're done with that 
environment and frankly with the

299
00:14:19,800 --> 00:14:22,500
FED in the changes with the 
economy, I think this might last

300
00:14:22,500 --> 00:14:25,700
for a prolonged period of time. 
So this is the reason why I've 

301
00:14:25,700 --> 00:14:28,100
looked at different companies 
that I used to hold early on in 

302
00:14:28,100 --> 00:14:32,000
this portfolio early. 
Only 21 and I've exit out of a 

303
00:14:32,008 --> 00:14:34,400
lot of these positions are no 
longer hold them and I have a 

304
00:14:34,400 --> 00:14:38,100
huge emphasis on companies that 
will generate meaningful free 

305
00:14:38,100 --> 00:14:41,100
cash flows over the next year. 
2000 is one of the companies 

306
00:14:41,100 --> 00:14:43,800
that if you look at when it was 
founded, this company is not a 

307
00:14:43,808 --> 00:14:46,500
brand new, you know, young tech 
company. 

308
00:14:46,700 --> 00:14:51,800
It was founded in 2008, 14 years
ago but yet twilio has never 

309
00:14:51,800 --> 00:14:54,200
generated any meaningful free 
cash flow. 

310
00:14:54,700 --> 00:14:56,900
Look at this chart over time. 
The last three quarters of free 

311
00:14:56,900 --> 00:14:59,600
cash flows - while they're 
diluting the shareholders. 

312
00:14:59,700 --> 00:15:02,800
The same time. 
So even though their revenue is 

313
00:15:03,100 --> 00:15:05,600
growing at paste and it's 
growing and it looks like a 

314
00:15:05,600 --> 00:15:08,600
beautiful chart here, I'm not 
going to be investing in this 

315
00:15:08,600 --> 00:15:10,900
company anymore. 
The only time I'll be investing 

316
00:15:10,900 --> 00:15:14,700
in it is if they can generate 
real undiluted, free cash flow. 

317
00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:17,700
If they can prove that they can 
grow that over time, as much as 

318
00:15:17,700 --> 00:15:20,200
I like the company, I'm no 
longer investing in them. 

319
00:15:20,200 --> 00:15:22,000
Unless it can generate real 
profits. 

320
00:15:22,300 --> 00:15:25,300
Another example we can look at 
is Spotify here. 

321
00:15:25,400 --> 00:15:30,100
Spotify was founded in 2006. 
So, the company is what Ten 

322
00:15:30,100 --> 00:15:33,500
years old, right? 
It's not a new platform, it's 

323
00:15:33,500 --> 00:15:36,600
not a new startup company. 
They really have no excuse 

324
00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:39,600
anymore to not be generating 
free cash flow to be a 

325
00:15:39,600 --> 00:15:42,300
profitable company. 
They've been around for a decade

326
00:15:42,300 --> 00:15:46,000
and a half and still Spotify. 
Generates really no meaningful 

327
00:15:46,000 --> 00:15:49,100
free cash flow. 
It looks positive here like a 

328
00:15:49,100 --> 00:15:51,200
little bit. 
You know, these are 100 million,

329
00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:54,300
72 million 41 million for a 
twenty billion dollar company. 

330
00:15:54,700 --> 00:15:57,600
Then you factor in dilution and 
they're deluding the shareholder

331
00:15:57,600 --> 00:15:59,600
as well, when you factor in the 
dilution. 

332
00:15:59,700 --> 00:16:01,900
Ocean, the free cash flow is not
meaningful. 

333
00:16:02,100 --> 00:16:05,100
The earnings of Spotify are 
basically non-existent. 

334
00:16:05,300 --> 00:16:09,700
So this company has had 16 years
to generate a profit and then I 

335
00:16:09,700 --> 00:16:13,100
read tweets from the CEO that he
doesn't address this problem at 

336
00:16:13,100 --> 00:16:14,100
all. 
He just says, we're going to 

337
00:16:14,100 --> 00:16:17,700
continue to scale the platform 
or not focused on profits and, 

338
00:16:17,700 --> 00:16:19,700
you know, down the road five or 
ten years. 

339
00:16:19,700 --> 00:16:22,900
We might focus on profits. 
So, as much as I like Spotify is

340
00:16:22,900 --> 00:16:25,300
a product, I really do love the 
service. 

341
00:16:25,600 --> 00:16:30,500
I swapped Spotify for Facebook, 
I went back into Spock, I'm all 

342
00:16:30,500 --> 00:16:34,200
in on big Tech now because 
Facebook is trading at a 17 PE. 

343
00:16:34,600 --> 00:16:37,900
And this company, generates real
money undiluted real money, 

344
00:16:38,000 --> 00:16:40,300
they're generating 8 plus 
billion dollars in free cash 

345
00:16:40,300 --> 00:16:43,500
flow per quarter and they're 
buying back their shares and 

346
00:16:43,500 --> 00:16:45,700
guess what? 
I don't even like Facebook, I 

347
00:16:45,700 --> 00:16:47,500
like, Spotify way more as a 
product. 

348
00:16:47,500 --> 00:16:49,200
I don't even use Facebook, 
right? 

349
00:16:49,300 --> 00:16:51,400
I use a little bit of an 
Instagram, but I really never 

350
00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:54,200
log on to Facebook. 
I don't really like the social 

351
00:16:54,200 --> 00:16:56,900
media aspect of people. 
Just arguing about politics and 

352
00:16:56,900 --> 00:17:00,300
petty little things. 
So Facebook's a company Me where

353
00:17:00,300 --> 00:17:03,500
I don't even like, the product 
that much, but the numbers don't

354
00:17:03,500 --> 00:17:07,200
lie, the company still growing, 
they're at a very cheap price 

355
00:17:07,400 --> 00:17:08,900
and their free cash flow 
generative. 

356
00:17:09,300 --> 00:17:13,099
So even though I like Spotify 
more than Facebook, I swap those

357
00:17:13,099 --> 00:17:15,400
two Holdings to focus on a 
company that can generate 

358
00:17:15,400 --> 00:17:17,099
profits. 
Another one I'll mention is 

359
00:17:17,099 --> 00:17:20,500
palantir. 
Pounder was founded in 2003. 

360
00:17:20,800 --> 00:17:23,400
I don't think a lot of investors
in this company realize how old 

361
00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:25,900
it is. 
This isn't some new startup tech

362
00:17:25,900 --> 00:17:30,000
company just because IPO to a 
year ago the company was Founded

363
00:17:30,000 --> 00:17:34,600
in 2003, that's when it started.
It's been 19 years and they 

364
00:17:34,600 --> 00:17:38,200
really generate no profits, they
reward their employees with 

365
00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:41,200
massive amounts of shares 
options, that's how they have 

366
00:17:41,200 --> 00:17:42,300
it. 
So they have no debt. 

367
00:17:42,500 --> 00:17:44,400
The company is not free, cash 
flow generative to any 

368
00:17:44,400 --> 00:17:47,200
meaningful extent. 
It's not profitable and the big 

369
00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:49,800
question for investors should be
if you're invested in these 

370
00:17:49,800 --> 00:17:52,000
companies. 
When are they going to produce 

371
00:17:52,000 --> 00:17:55,200
real cash flows? 
Real money to return to the 

372
00:17:55,200 --> 00:17:57,000
shareholder. 
When are they going to stop? 

373
00:17:57,000 --> 00:18:02,500
Deluding shareholders, 2% 3%. 
At quarter-over-quarter 10% 11% 

374
00:18:02,500 --> 00:18:04,500
year-over-year. 
I think that's a question that a

375
00:18:04,500 --> 00:18:08,100
lot of a lot of people are now 
asking themselves and hopefully 

376
00:18:08,100 --> 00:18:09,700
it's soon. 
Hopefully they'll generate real 

377
00:18:09,700 --> 00:18:13,300
money soon, but if they haven't 
done it in 19 years, do you 

378
00:18:13,308 --> 00:18:14,700
really think they're going to do
it next year? 

379
00:18:14,800 --> 00:18:16,000
Is that the year? 
They're going to do it. 

380
00:18:16,300 --> 00:18:18,000
I don't know. 
Just something to ask now, 

381
00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:19,800
there's a couple more charts I 
want to show because I think 

382
00:18:19,800 --> 00:18:22,600
they're just incredible. 
This one is from Ben Carlson of 

383
00:18:22,600 --> 00:18:27,000
Twitter and it shows the top 20 
companies in the S&P 500 

384
00:18:27,100 --> 00:18:29,100
year-to-date their year-to-date 
performance. 

385
00:18:29,900 --> 00:18:33,600
Only six of them are in the 
green year-to-date six of the 

386
00:18:33,600 --> 00:18:36,300
top 20 companies. 
So if your companies are being 

387
00:18:36,300 --> 00:18:38,700
sold off, you're not alone. 
The majority of them. 

388
00:18:38,700 --> 00:18:41,100
Are we have Berkshire in the 
green? 

389
00:18:41,100 --> 00:18:44,100
So the Warren Buffett oil 
companies are going up Johnson &

390
00:18:44,100 --> 00:18:46,800
Johnson's, barely in the green 
at 3.8%. 

391
00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:49,900
We have Walmart hanging in there
at 4.1%. 

392
00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:56,300
ExxonMobil up, 51% the oil trade
is going strong, Chevron up 47% 

393
00:18:56,600 --> 00:18:59,400
and Eli Lilly and Company up. 
7.9%. 

394
00:18:59,700 --> 00:19:01,200
Those are the top ones that are 
in the green. 

395
00:19:01,600 --> 00:19:04,800
Now, if we look at this, just in
terms of big Tech with Tesla 

396
00:19:04,800 --> 00:19:08,600
included their down, an average 
of 25% just here today. 

397
00:19:08,900 --> 00:19:11,200
So, all a big Tech across the 
board is selling off. 

398
00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:14,700
Apple included even Microsoft, 
but especially Amazon and Tesla,

399
00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:17,300
and Google. 
They're selling off like crazy. 

400
00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:20,700
Then we also have Facebook hair 
down, 40 percent year-to-date. 

401
00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:25,000
So Facebook has been completely 
crushed, so across the board 

402
00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:27,900
even the the different PE 
ratios, these companies are 

403
00:19:27,900 --> 00:19:30,200
getting hit. 
If you're having Your portfolio 

404
00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:33,000
get crashed right now. 
Again you're not alone most 

405
00:19:33,000 --> 00:19:35,800
people unless you're heavily in 
the consumer defensive and oil 

406
00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:37,700
companies. 
Most people are going to have 

407
00:19:37,700 --> 00:19:40,300
their portfolios getting crushed
over the past couple of months. 

408
00:19:40,308 --> 00:19:42,000
So I think this is the big 
takeaway. 

409
00:19:42,100 --> 00:19:46,600
This graph shows a very wide 
sample size of different time. 

410
00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:49,800
Periods through all different 
Market cycles and your returns 

411
00:19:49,800 --> 00:19:52,400
based on length and time that 
you invest in the stock market, 

412
00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:55,200
okay? 
And what it clearly illustrates 

413
00:19:55,200 --> 00:19:58,800
is the longer that you have your
money in the market, the 

414
00:19:58,800 --> 00:20:02,000
probabilities of of making 
money, go up significantly to 

415
00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:06,800
nearly 100%, but in the short 
term in the daily basis, if 

416
00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:09,200
you're trading, like, Wall 
Street, you're putting money in 

417
00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:12,100
day by day focused on CNBC, 
right? 

418
00:20:12,100 --> 00:20:14,400
If you're looking at the 
different apps that show you 

419
00:20:14,408 --> 00:20:17,200
what's going on today or if 
you're looking at CNBC TV, if 

420
00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:19,200
you're looking at the Wall 
Street Journal, if you're paying

421
00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:22,000
attention to day trader accounts
on Twitter, that's where 

422
00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:25,300
everyone here is. 
Playing Wall Street plays daily,

423
00:20:25,500 --> 00:20:27,400
they look at the stock market on
a daily basis. 

424
00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:30,700
And if you're looking at this 
territory, On a day by day 

425
00:20:30,700 --> 00:20:35,300
basis, you have a 56% chance of 
making money slightly ahead of a

426
00:20:35,300 --> 00:20:37,700
coin flip. 
So you may as well go to Vegas. 

427
00:20:38,100 --> 00:20:40,600
Go to something like the slot 
machines have a 50% chance of 

428
00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:43,000
making money or losing money and
play that. 

429
00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:46,700
You only have slightly better 
odds in the stock market and 

430
00:20:46,700 --> 00:20:50,000
that's by virtue of companies 
being economic machines, that 

431
00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:52,300
generate profits over time and 
typically they go up. 

432
00:20:52,500 --> 00:20:56,700
So, the odds are slightly better
than gambling when you're 

433
00:20:56,700 --> 00:20:59,200
playing the stock market daily 
and this is where the huge 

434
00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:00,800
majority. 
E of people are focused with 

435
00:21:00,800 --> 00:21:02,500
their time and attention and 
energy. 

436
00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:04,600
I see this in my comments 
section as well. 

437
00:21:04,900 --> 00:21:08,800
Everybody says, that any company
I buy that goes down the next 

438
00:21:08,800 --> 00:21:10,900
day, that that was a bad 
investment. 

439
00:21:11,200 --> 00:21:13,300
That's literally a lot of 
comments that I receive now. 

440
00:21:13,500 --> 00:21:16,000
This was a bad investment 
because last month, it was a 

441
00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:20,000
higher price that is a 
day-to-day Focus as an investor.

442
00:21:20,300 --> 00:21:24,700
And again if you're focused on 
The Daily you have a 56% chance 

443
00:21:24,700 --> 00:21:27,900
of making money, a 44 percent 
chance of losing it. 

444
00:21:28,200 --> 00:21:31,100
That is a huge problem. 
Bility of losing money on a 

445
00:21:31,108 --> 00:21:33,600
daily basis. 
Now, if you extend this to only 

446
00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:37,300
one year your chances of making 
money, go up significantly over 

447
00:21:37,300 --> 00:21:42,000
a year time period since 1928 to
2021 you had a 75% chance of 

448
00:21:42,000 --> 00:21:45,000
making money, three out of four.
It's still a gamble. 

449
00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:48,500
You still have a 25% chance of 
losing money but at least your 

450
00:21:48,500 --> 00:21:51,100
odds are increased. 
At least, historically, looking 

451
00:21:51,300 --> 00:21:55,700
significantly from 56%, the 75%.
Now, extend that to five years 

452
00:21:56,100 --> 00:21:59,700
again the odds of making money, 
go up significantly from Five 

453
00:21:59,700 --> 00:22:02,700
percent to eighty eight percent 
then we get to the 10-year 

454
00:22:02,700 --> 00:22:05,400
territory the odds of making 
money. 

455
00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:10,000
When investing in the market, 
for a 10-year period is 95%. 

456
00:22:10,500 --> 00:22:13,000
Meaning the out of many 10-year 
long periods. 

457
00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:15,700
There's only been a 5% chance 
that you actually lose money. 

458
00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:20,200
You had invest right at the peak
of the.com, bubble, to lose 

459
00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:22,000
money, you know, over a 10-year 
period. 

460
00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:25,300
So, very unlikely, I would say 
very unlikely, especially if 

461
00:22:25,300 --> 00:22:27,700
your dollar cost averaging and 
continually buying. 

462
00:22:27,900 --> 00:22:30,200
Now, if you increase that to a 
20-year, Period. 

463
00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:33,200
Your odds of making money. 
Historically speaking go to 

464
00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:36,900
100%, there is literally never 
been a period of time between 

465
00:22:36,900 --> 00:22:43,100
1928 and 2021 or any investor 
has lost money buying the market

466
00:22:43,100 --> 00:22:46,700
over a 20-year period. 
Never not once, and especially 

467
00:22:46,700 --> 00:22:49,900
over 30 years and 40 yards, the 
odds even go down further 

468
00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:52,700
because even though we might see
this sometime in the future, 

469
00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:57,700
it's very unlikely for 30 years.
So the idea of this is to not 

470
00:22:57,700 --> 00:23:00,500
focus on the daily even though 
we Talk about it and we share 

471
00:23:00,500 --> 00:23:04,200
thoughts on it every single day 
to not invest that way, hold 

472
00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:07,300
these companies long-term hold 
the indexes long term if you're 

473
00:23:07,300 --> 00:23:09,500
invested in an ETF and it's 
going down every day. 

474
00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:12,700
Just hang on your odds. 
Go up significantly of making 

475
00:23:12,700 --> 00:23:16,500
money every single time period 
from one year to five year to 10

476
00:23:16,500 --> 00:23:20,500
year to 20 year, it goes up and 
up and up till you get to 100% 

477
00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:23,200
historically speaking 100% 
chance of making money. 

478
00:23:23,300 --> 00:23:25,600
So that's all for now, best of 
luck to all of you, and I'll see

479
00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:26,200
you in the next one.