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Welcome everyone, to Joseph, 
Carlson after hours. 

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This is just bad. 
There's no other way to say it. 

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There's no sugarcoating. 
It, the markets terrible today, 

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my portfolio and basically every
company that I own is performing

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terrible today. 
Let's go ahead and take a look. 

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This is the story fund as of 
right now. 

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This is one of my two portfolios
that I track every single week 

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week by week with complete 
transparency come good or bad. 

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Now right now as you can see, 
we're down big on the portfolio 

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and every day it seems to go 
down. 

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Down even further. 
Just today. 

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For example, we are down, five 
thousand dollars, five point 

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three, three percent. 
And is this, some specific 

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company causing all this pain? 
Not really, some of them are 

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down a little bit more than 
others. 

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But overall, all of them are 
down to a huge extent. 

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So, this is just every company 
that I own in this portfolio, 

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heavily in the red. 
And this is how the market is. 

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Right now. 
It's not, it's not doing well. 

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We look at this overall again. 
We're down about 40,000. 

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One thousand dollars. 
What I do with this portfolio is

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since the beginning. 
I've tracked it against the S&P 

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500 as The Benchmark. 
We have that view right here. 

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This is what it looks like. 
The story fund my portfolios in 

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blue. 
The S&P 500 is in red ever since

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the tech route back in November 
of last year. 

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My portfolio has sold off along 
with these tech companies to a 

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greater extent and you have the 
S&P 500, even over the past 

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couple of weeks. 
Just you know, it was up 16% now

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it's actually in the red fine. 
Ali fell into the - my portfolio

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is down 30% 29% right now. 
So overall is just ugly. 

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This Mark is completely ugly. 
If we look at the broader 

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indices year-to-date the S&P 500
is down, 17 percent 

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year-to-date, that QQQ the tech 
companies are down 27%. 

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Now this wouldn't be a big 
issue. 

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How do you invest in all these 
companies? 

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And these indices five years 
ago, then you would, you know, 

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you'd have some gains you would 
have lost a little bit of Gaines

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but you'd still be largely in 
the green. 

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The issue is if you started 
investing in the last year or so

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just the last year or two that 
is precisely. 

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When I started this portfolio 
was last year. 

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I put the majority of the money,
the huge majority in the market 

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in 2021 right around here which 
turned out to be very poor 

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timing to buy because now we 
have this huge sell-off and 

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these companies are just getting
crushed. 

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So this is an already difficult 
Market, very difficult and most 

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of us have seen Huge losses over
the past three months, but this 

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next Domino that's been knocked 
over causing this chain 

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reaction. 
And this huge sell-off. 

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Today seems to have started with
a ball murdered. 

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Yes, Walmart's earnings report 
was yesterday. 

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I made a video on it. 
The title of the video was the 

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death of retail, right? 
And some people thought that 

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this was clickbait. 
They thought Joseph is being 

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dramatic here, right? 
The death of retail. 

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That's a little bit of drama. 
Now what I did in that video as 

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I actually critiqued Walmart's 
earnings or poor, I dove into 

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Actually looked at it and it was
terrible. 

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They miss their earnings by huge
extent, caused by things that 

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are outside of their control 
gas. 

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Prices are are incredibly high 
and retailers have to ship 

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things to. 
And from stores with big diesel 

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trucks, that is a huge cost 
outside of their control. 

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Sluggish sales, supply chain, 
disruptions on, and on, and on 

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Wal Mart. 
CEO said that more people now 

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are choosing to buy half gallon 
of milk than before. 

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So before they're buying a full 
gallon of milk. 

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Now, they're choosing. 
The by the half gallon of milk. 

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That was something that I 
thought was sad to hair on an 

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earnings report. 
Now after Walmart reported their

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earnings, the very next Domino 
was Target and this is where 

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things got really bad Target. 
Reported their earnings and they

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cited an even worse report 
missing their earnings by huge 

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extent saying that consumer 
shift in spending, the things 

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that they're buying is dramatic.
They're not buying the hard 

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Goods anymore. 
The type of things that you go 

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into a Target, which is one of 
the higher margin. 

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Or so, this is one of the more 
pricey ones, consumers are not 

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favoring. 
These type of things anymore 

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where you go in and see the 
interior design stuff, where you

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go in and see the expensive home
improvement stuff inside of the 

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target. 
That's not doing well right now,

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all of the hards good section is
not doing well. 

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So when investors looked at 
Targets earnings report and saw 

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that consumers were moving away 
from these, these type of goods,

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right? 
Moving more to services and just

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the bare bones, the groceries 
this caused a chain reaction in.

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In the market Costco, even the 
mighty Costco, which 

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self-admittedly is one of my 
favorite companies. 

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Everett's I love Costco. 
I literally think it's one of 

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the best companies in the world.
I own it. 

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I'm not selling it. 
I'm not treating it at all. 

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So I still have my steak. 
It could go down to $200 a 

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share. 
It could go up to 700. 

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I'm not going to sell it for the
next ten years, but regardless 

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this company's down 12%, today 
didn't report any news didn't 

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have anything happen. 
People just looked at Targets 

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earnings report and they 
thought. 

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Wow, this Really bad Costco, 
should sell off as well to some 

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extent. 
Now. 

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I'm going to explain some key 
differences between Target and 

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Costco. 
And the reason that I don't 

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think, you know, I don't know, 
we have Costco's earnings report

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coming up. 
But the reason that I don't 

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think Costco will have as bad of
an earnings report, but we have 

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Amazon Amazon is down 7% today 
after already being down a lot. 

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The stocks not doing really 
well. 

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It's down like 30, 40 percent 
over the past few months. 

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So, it's down another 7%. 
Today approaching the Oh 2000s. 

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These are retailers. 
Investors looked at Walmart. 

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They said that's not good. 
Then they saw Target and they 

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saw that looks terrible. 
I want out the rest of these 

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companies. 
I'd only want to think about 

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Costco's earnings report, taking
any gains that I have. 

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I'm exiting out of it. 
Amazon already has enough 

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issues. 
I'm going to exit out of this 

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one as well. 
Then we also have Walmart again 

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today. 
Right? 

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There were down 11% yesterday. 
They're down an additional 7% 

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today. 
So not a good week to own 

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Walmart. 
It's down 17 percent overall. 

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Has really been The Perfect 
Storm against these retailers. 

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Think about this, for just a 
minute, you had the perfect 

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environment for retail 
companies. 

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Consumers were locked in their 
houses. 

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They couldn't go to work. 
Many of them were buying new 

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homes to get into larger spaces 
and they were well capitalized, 

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the government gave endless 
stimulus to every American 

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individual. 
So you're locked in your home. 

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You can't go out and do much. 
The only thing you can really do

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is go shopping at places like 
Target at places like Walmart 

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place. 
His like Amazon places like 

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Costco. 
And if you're thinking about 

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redoing your desk and improving 
your your situation right at 

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home, you're going to go to 
Target. 

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They have a lot of interior 
design stuff. 

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They have a lot of different 
furniture and different things 

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that you can buy. 
That situation is gone. 

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Consumers are running out of 
their stimulus money and they're

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not being recapitalize the new 
jobs that they have or the 

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higher wages is not enough to 
make up for these stimulus. 

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Checks in the meantime, 
inflation's out of control 

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consumers, filling the squeeze 
of inflation are now Choosing to

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buy less of these objects and 
focus on just the things that 

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they need in the meantime. 
The retailers have gas prices of

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five to six dollars. 
Six dollar diesel charge for a 

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company that has to ship 
everything. 

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Across the Earth. 
We have companies like Amazon 

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that literally ship everything 
everywhere. 

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They're going to probably get 
hit very hard with these diesel 

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prices. 
So everything from employment 

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from transportation is getting 
more expensive while the 

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consumers getting weaker. 
Are the perfect storm is now 

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happening for the Retailer's. 
Now just to illustrate how 

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unique the circumstances were 
for a company like Target and 

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the growth that they had during 
2021. 

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There's really no graph that 
illustrates it better than the 

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earnings per share. 
Take a look at this graph over 

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time. 
You might notice a trend since 

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1997 Target did grow their 
earnings over time, faster than 

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the economy, is a great company 
that expanded and grew and it 

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was a good investment, but you 
might notice the trend change 

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here in Eighteen to twenty 
Twenty-One a massive Trend 

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change Target, didn't just grow 
their earnings. 

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They doubled it in one year, 
after running the business for 

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20 years. 20 plus years one 
year. 

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They suddenly doubled their 
earnings. 

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Now to me that raises some red 
flags. 

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I think what happened and is it 
sustainable? 

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The question? 
What happened is, like I 

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mentioned everybody got free 
money. 

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There was stuck at home. 
They're redesigning their house 

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and buying pictures and 
furniture and different things 

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for their desk and different 
things that target cells. 

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And the question of Is that 
sustainable is obviously no. 

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Now the earnings per share went 
from a dollar. 69 a dollar 

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thirty six to two dollars and 79
cents. 

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Three dollars and 64 cents 
almost $4 per share in one year.

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Just a year later. 
We're getting earnings reports 

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showing three dollars plus per 
share per quarter. 

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And in this most recent report, 
just today analysts were 

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expecting three dollars and 
seven cents of earnings per 

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share and they reported almost 
an entire dollar less back to 

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Sense, so the analysts were 
expecting another quarter, just 

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like the past six. 
Just for this to continue on 

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with no big reversion to the 
mean, another quarter of three 

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dollars, three dollars, and 
ninety nine cents. 

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Just like last quarter. 
Then Target came out, reported 

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$2.99 about two-thirds of the 
way there, which is a huge 

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reversion back to their 
long-term mean their long-term 

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Trend. 
So what we're seeing here with 

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Target, is a massive reversion 
to the mean. 

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Now Target still a great company
and this is no fault of the 

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management. 
This is just a situation where 

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in higher fuel prices higher 
employee costs. 

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Right? 
Higher wages to pay higher 

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expensive, goods and services 
due to inflation and a consumer 

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that's running out of money. 
That's the situation right now. 

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Now Costco is also selling off 
along with targets down. 

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Twelve point. 
Seven, five percent now, Costco,

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is a unique company, even a 
unique retailer. 

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The first thing that I would say
about this company, is it trades

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at a massive premium, even after
today's sell-off? 

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I think the company still 
inexpensive company and I say 

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this being a big Holder of the 
company. 

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I have a big stake in it. 
I've owned it for a long time. 

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00:10:03,900 --> 00:10:05,500
I don't plan on trading it at 
all. 

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So if it trades up or down, or 
in between, I'm not going to be 

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selling it. 
It's one of the companies. 

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One of the very few that I've 
just decided I want to own for 

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10 years. 
I don't want to trade in and out

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of it. 
I just want to own it for 10 

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years and see what happens at 
the end. 

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Because I have a feeling it's 
going to be worth a lot more at 

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the end of 10 years. 
So that's kind of how I'm 

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looking at Costco, but people 
that are more active with your 

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Investments. 
I've been telling to not buy 

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Costco. 
Recently, it's been trading at a

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huge premium, the company even 
after a twelve percent drop in 

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price. 
Today is still pretty expensive.

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It's above 400 dollars a share. 
That's not really a cheap 

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Company. 
Still trades at a very high, P/E

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ratio. 
Now, there's a couple things 

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unique about Costco, when 
comparing it to Target. 

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The first thing is, is that 
Costco is a membership model. 

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It's not a company. 
You can just walk into and buy 

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anything and leave. 
So it is purely a membership 

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model. 
You cannot get into the Costco 

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00:10:59,100 --> 00:11:01,300
warehouse. 
Without being a Costco member. 

231
00:11:01,600 --> 00:11:03,600
The member has a high retention 
rate. 

232
00:11:03,800 --> 00:11:06,500
Most people keep their 
membership year after year, and 

233
00:11:06,500 --> 00:11:08,600
that's how they make the 
majority of their profits. 

234
00:11:08,600 --> 00:11:11,900
So, one thing that I observe 
here is that Costco's earnings 

235
00:11:11,900 --> 00:11:15,000
per share growth is much more 
gradual than targets. 

236
00:11:15,200 --> 00:11:18,100
It's not this massive doubling 
and earnings per share from one 

237
00:11:18,100 --> 00:11:20,400
year to the next. 
And so I think even though 

238
00:11:20,400 --> 00:11:23,500
Costco is definitely a 
beneficiary of the pandemic. 

239
00:11:23,800 --> 00:11:26,400
I think it's less of an anomaly 
for Costco. 

240
00:11:26,500 --> 00:11:29,600
And I think there's a chance. 
I think it's likely that Costco.

241
00:11:29,700 --> 00:11:33,000
I'll have an easier time dealing
with all these issues and Target

242
00:11:33,100 --> 00:11:36,000
because Costco earns around 
two-thirds of their profit, 

243
00:11:36,000 --> 00:11:38,300
their net income from their 
memberships. 

244
00:11:38,400 --> 00:11:41,100
Not from selling stuff. 
Target is purely a seller. 

245
00:11:41,100 --> 00:11:43,800
They make money by selling 
products and they charge a 

246
00:11:43,808 --> 00:11:45,400
margin and that margin is their 
profit. 

247
00:11:45,400 --> 00:11:47,500
Margin. 
Costco, considers himself a 

248
00:11:47,500 --> 00:11:50,100
buyer. 
They try to buy things on behalf

249
00:11:50,100 --> 00:11:52,300
of their members. 
They try to charge them, the 

250
00:11:52,300 --> 00:11:55,400
lowest margin possible, the 
greatest savings and then they 

251
00:11:55,400 --> 00:11:57,100
make the money through the 
memberships. 

252
00:11:57,300 --> 00:11:59,000
So it's a very different 
business model. 

253
00:11:59,100 --> 00:12:03,100
Very Even though they're both 
just in the basket of consumer 

254
00:12:03,100 --> 00:12:05,900
discretionary retail. 
Now, next up, we have Amazon, 

255
00:12:05,900 --> 00:12:07,900
which is, of course, a massive 
retailer. 

256
00:12:08,100 --> 00:12:11,700
Biggest online retailer for 
sure, but it's also more than a 

257
00:12:11,700 --> 00:12:13,900
retailer. 
Everyone knows that Amazon has 

258
00:12:13,900 --> 00:12:16,300
the elephant in the room, which 
is AWS as well. 

259
00:12:16,700 --> 00:12:19,400
But regardless investors are 
becoming very concerned about 

260
00:12:19,400 --> 00:12:20,800
the retail portion of this 
company. 

261
00:12:21,100 --> 00:12:24,100
As I think is warranted because 
it's down seven point four eight

262
00:12:24,100 --> 00:12:28,100
percent now Amazon to put it 
lightly has a lot of headwinds 

263
00:12:28,100 --> 00:12:31,100
facing it, and I say this This 
as an investor, this company. 

264
00:12:31,100 --> 00:12:32,800
So I'm still heavily invested in
it. 

265
00:12:33,000 --> 00:12:35,700
But I have to admit this company
has a lot of problems. 

266
00:12:35,700 --> 00:12:38,400
It's facing at least over the 
next six months. 

267
00:12:38,800 --> 00:12:41,500
First of all, you have gas 
prices, just like Target and 

268
00:12:41,500 --> 00:12:45,000
Walmart are saying gas is 
affecting them because they have

269
00:12:45,000 --> 00:12:46,500
to ship everything around the 
world. 

270
00:12:46,700 --> 00:12:48,900
No company. 
I think does more shipping and 

271
00:12:48,900 --> 00:12:51,200
has to deal with more gas prices
than Amazon. 

272
00:12:51,500 --> 00:12:54,600
Every single thing that they 
send to anyone has to go into a 

273
00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:58,000
van has to be filled up with 
gas, and that's getting more and

274
00:12:58,000 --> 00:13:01,100
more expensive. 
And Can only raise their prices 

275
00:13:01,100 --> 00:13:04,200
for Amazon Prime so much. 
So you're enjoying that free 

276
00:13:04,200 --> 00:13:07,300
shipping from Amazon Prime and 
they're having to pay the higher

277
00:13:07,300 --> 00:13:10,800
gas prices every week as gas 
continues to go up. 

278
00:13:11,100 --> 00:13:13,300
So Amazon is eating the cost of 
that. 

279
00:13:13,500 --> 00:13:14,900
They're wanting to keep prices 
low. 

280
00:13:14,900 --> 00:13:17,100
They want to keep their 
customers using Amazon. 

281
00:13:17,500 --> 00:13:20,200
So they're just they're just 
taken the hit there for a huge 

282
00:13:20,200 --> 00:13:21,600
extent. 
They're taking the hit, so 

283
00:13:21,600 --> 00:13:24,700
Amazon has the issue of gas 
prices and that's not the only 

284
00:13:24,700 --> 00:13:26,400
issue. 
We also have interest rates, of 

285
00:13:26,400 --> 00:13:29,600
course Rising which make it so 
that smaller tech companies and 

286
00:13:29,700 --> 00:13:31,900
smaller startups, can't get as 
much funding. 

287
00:13:31,900 --> 00:13:35,000
They can't get easy cheap, 
Capital to fund their business. 

288
00:13:35,300 --> 00:13:37,700
Lots of tech startups and new 
companies. 

289
00:13:37,900 --> 00:13:42,200
Use AWS has their go to service.
So Amazon relies on all these 

290
00:13:42,200 --> 00:13:46,200
smaller tech companies hosting 
all their stuff on AWS and that 

291
00:13:46,200 --> 00:13:49,700
growth will probably be declined
at least over the next year, if 

292
00:13:49,700 --> 00:13:52,500
interest rates go up a lot. 
If companies get less funding, 

293
00:13:52,500 --> 00:13:55,100
if they're spending Less on on 
different, you know, different 

294
00:13:55,100 --> 00:13:57,700
Cloud Endeavors that's going to 
affect Amazon as well. 

295
00:13:57,800 --> 00:14:00,200
So over. 
All right now, I think Amazon 

296
00:14:00,200 --> 00:14:02,000
has a ton of issues. 
It's facing. 

297
00:14:02,200 --> 00:14:05,100
I think investors have reason to
be concerned at least over the 

298
00:14:05,100 --> 00:14:07,600
next year. 
I do not expect their earnings 

299
00:14:07,600 --> 00:14:10,000
reports to be Stellar. 
If anything, I expected to be 

300
00:14:10,000 --> 00:14:12,800
underwhelming, investors are 
pricing that in there, getting 

301
00:14:12,800 --> 00:14:14,600
ahead of it and I think 
appropriately. 

302
00:14:14,600 --> 00:14:20,000
So so I say this as a big long 
term Amazon Bowl, I'm very 

303
00:14:20,000 --> 00:14:22,900
bullish on the company and a 
long-term time Horizon over the 

304
00:14:22,900 --> 00:14:25,500
next couple of earnings reports.
I do not expect it be good. 

305
00:14:25,600 --> 00:14:29,600
I expect them to say that that 
oil prices caused their ship. 

306
00:14:29,700 --> 00:14:32,500
Being and Logistics to have tons
more expense than normal. 

307
00:14:32,700 --> 00:14:35,700
I expect them to say that they 
had invest in employees with 

308
00:14:35,700 --> 00:14:38,300
Rising wages. 
I expect them to say, aw s 

309
00:14:38,300 --> 00:14:41,700
growth is slowing down a bit as 
companies are trying to cut cut 

310
00:14:41,800 --> 00:14:44,100
expenses, you know, a lot of 
things that I think will be 

311
00:14:44,100 --> 00:14:46,000
difficult over the next couple 
of quarters. 

312
00:14:46,300 --> 00:14:48,500
Now, I'm going to continue 
holding the company. 

313
00:14:48,500 --> 00:14:52,600
My time Horizon is by the end of
2025 and hopefully gas prices 

314
00:14:52,600 --> 00:14:56,000
won't be five and six dollars a 
gallon by that time. 

315
00:14:56,100 --> 00:14:58,300
If that is a case that's going 
to be a little bit unfortunate. 

316
00:14:58,300 --> 00:15:01,700
Now site of Amazon and 
Specifically, we also have a 

317
00:15:01,700 --> 00:15:05,000
bunch of other companies in my 
portfolio that I have unique 

318
00:15:05,000 --> 00:15:07,900
concerns about all of them. 
Google is a great company trades

319
00:15:07,900 --> 00:15:10,900
at a low P/E ratio, but I think 
we might see some of the same 

320
00:15:10,900 --> 00:15:14,900
stuff we saw with kind of Home 
Depot, and Lowe's and target 

321
00:15:14,900 --> 00:15:17,300
with Google. 
I think the company had a pretty

322
00:15:17,300 --> 00:15:22,200
unique circumstance in 2020 and 
in 2021, people spending lots of

323
00:15:22,200 --> 00:15:26,200
time at home watching YouTube 
lots of their their, their ad 

324
00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:28,800
business and their service and 
their their advertisement 

325
00:15:28,800 --> 00:15:31,000
business doing really well. 
Well, because lots of companies 

326
00:15:31,000 --> 00:15:33,000
have a lot of capital, they're 
paying a lot for the ads. 

327
00:15:33,300 --> 00:15:34,900
I could see a reversion to the 
mean. 

328
00:15:35,200 --> 00:15:37,800
That's why I haven't been piling
money into Google right now. 

329
00:15:38,100 --> 00:15:41,800
Microsoft, and probably, you 
know, one of the most bullish 

330
00:15:41,800 --> 00:15:43,000
on. 
This is a company. 

331
00:15:43,000 --> 00:15:45,900
I really am not concerned about 
it trades at a premium. 

332
00:15:45,900 --> 00:15:48,800
I think deservedly. 
So I think that the earnings of 

333
00:15:48,800 --> 00:15:52,000
Microsoft are going to be much 
more reliable than the earnings 

334
00:15:52,000 --> 00:15:55,400
of Google Amazon or even Apple. 
I think that Microsoft will 

335
00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:57,400
likely have the most reliable 
earnings. 

336
00:15:57,400 --> 00:15:59,500
And I think the company is 
undervalued right now because my

337
00:15:59,700 --> 00:16:02,200
Soft is one of the rare 
companies that I don't think 

338
00:16:02,300 --> 00:16:04,200
over earned over the past two 
years. 

339
00:16:04,400 --> 00:16:06,600
It didn't have a uniquely 
amazing year. 

340
00:16:06,800 --> 00:16:09,400
I think the company just has an 
incredibly powerful business 

341
00:16:09,400 --> 00:16:11,900
model powerful moat and will 
continue to grow. 

342
00:16:11,900 --> 00:16:13,900
Its earnings on Pace for the 
future. 

343
00:16:14,200 --> 00:16:17,300
Netflix is definitely one of the
companies in my portfolio. 

344
00:16:17,300 --> 00:16:21,200
In fact, this one, I would 
consider probably the most risky

345
00:16:21,200 --> 00:16:24,500
stock in my portfolio. 
As of right now, even more risky

346
00:16:24,500 --> 00:16:27,900
than Ali Baba. 
When I look at Netflix, the the 

347
00:16:27,900 --> 00:16:30,900
risk in this company and this 
holding Has incredibly high. 

348
00:16:31,300 --> 00:16:34,100
I would not go into this one. 
Unless you're okay with an 

349
00:16:34,100 --> 00:16:37,100
extreme amount of volatility. 
I haven't bought any of it. 

350
00:16:37,100 --> 00:16:39,700
I haven't sold any of it, since 
the last earnings report. 

351
00:16:39,800 --> 00:16:42,400
I'm just holding on to my 
shares, will see how this does 

352
00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:44,800
over the long term. 
So, so far. 

353
00:16:44,800 --> 00:16:47,200
I have not sold a single share 
of Netflix. 

354
00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:51,300
Not sold one, and I plan on, 
keeping it that way for, at 

355
00:16:51,300 --> 00:16:53,700
least the next year. 
Or so, I'll assess after their 

356
00:16:53,700 --> 00:16:57,100
next earnings report will see 
how bad of retention. 

357
00:16:57,100 --> 00:16:59,500
They had how many subscribers 
they had. 

358
00:16:59,700 --> 00:17:01,300
And the type of efforts that 
they're doing. 

359
00:17:01,500 --> 00:17:03,100
There's lots of news on Netflix 
right now. 

360
00:17:03,100 --> 00:17:05,900
Like they're firing employees. 
They're cutting budget. 

361
00:17:05,900 --> 00:17:07,700
They're doing lots of things in,
my opinion. 

362
00:17:08,200 --> 00:17:11,000
Are kind of goodness right there
being more cautious about their 

363
00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:13,300
cost structure and their 
spending seems like they're 

364
00:17:13,300 --> 00:17:16,099
trying to really hone in their 
content. 

365
00:17:16,099 --> 00:17:17,900
Hopefully, they can come out 
with some better content in the 

366
00:17:17,900 --> 00:17:20,599
future. 
But overall, they still have a 

367
00:17:20,608 --> 00:17:23,000
massive lead over other 
streaming services and their 

368
00:17:23,000 --> 00:17:25,000
price with very low expectations
right now. 

369
00:17:25,000 --> 00:17:27,400
So this is one that I'm going to
hang on to Ali. 

370
00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:30,200
Baba's the next one. 
I likewise haven't sold any of 

371
00:17:30,200 --> 00:17:32,000
this company. 
I continue to just hang on to 

372
00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:34,100
it. 
I think there's a chance that if

373
00:17:34,300 --> 00:17:39,100
any news is positive from China,
if the government opens back up,

374
00:17:39,100 --> 00:17:42,400
if they stopped doing the covid,
lockdowns, if if the economy 

375
00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:45,900
starts to grow in China, if we 
have any good news at all and 

376
00:17:45,900 --> 00:17:48,900
China or Russia, or just 
internationally altogether. 

377
00:17:48,900 --> 00:17:51,500
I think that Baba could pop as a
stock. 

378
00:17:51,500 --> 00:17:53,900
I think it could go back up. 
It's priced with very low 

379
00:17:53,900 --> 00:17:56,000
expectations. 
I recently looked at the 

380
00:17:56,000 --> 00:17:58,100
valuation of Ali. 
Baba right now. 

381
00:17:58,100 --> 00:18:00,900
The company is down. 
All time from its IPO. 

382
00:18:01,200 --> 00:18:05,700
It's literally in the red since 
when I peeled back in 2014, the 

383
00:18:05,700 --> 00:18:09,000
revenue is up like, multiples 
and multiples and multiples of 

384
00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:12,000
our that time, the free cash 
flow is the margins are. 

385
00:18:12,000 --> 00:18:15,300
Every aspect of the company has 
improved since then and the 

386
00:18:15,300 --> 00:18:20,200
price to sales of Ali Baba. 
When it I poed was 28. 

387
00:18:20,500 --> 00:18:25,700
So IP o dat, a 28 price to sales
right now at trades that a 1.8. 

388
00:18:25,900 --> 00:18:28,500
So the amount of multiple 
contraction in the price to 

389
00:18:28,500 --> 00:18:31,900
sales of this company. 
He has been astronomical again. 

390
00:18:31,900 --> 00:18:34,100
It's being price with very low 
expectations right now. 

391
00:18:34,300 --> 00:18:37,000
I think if you have good news 
out of China, I can see this one

392
00:18:37,000 --> 00:18:39,100
go up. 
So I'm just hanging on to it. 

393
00:18:39,600 --> 00:18:43,300
Adobe in Salesforce to companies
that are relatively expensive, 

394
00:18:43,300 --> 00:18:45,900
right? 
Their premium company's overall.

395
00:18:45,900 --> 00:18:48,100
I'm not selling these ones. 
I'm not training them and I 

396
00:18:48,108 --> 00:18:50,000
haven't really done anything 
with these two companies 

397
00:18:50,000 --> 00:18:53,200
recently other than by little 
bits of them dollar cost. 

398
00:18:53,200 --> 00:18:56,700
Averaging these two companies 
grow their free cash flow per 

399
00:18:56,700 --> 00:19:00,500
share routinely, consistently 
every single A quarter every 

400
00:19:00,500 --> 00:19:02,500
single year. 
They grow their free cash flow 

401
00:19:02,500 --> 00:19:04,400
per share. 
Now next up we have apple which 

402
00:19:04,400 --> 00:19:07,200
is a smaller holding in this 
portfolio, but a much larger one

403
00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:10,300
in my dividend portfolio. 
I have around 40 thousand 

404
00:19:10,300 --> 00:19:13,400
dollars worth of Apple in my 
dividend portfolio and I bought 

405
00:19:13,400 --> 00:19:15,400
the company at ninety dollars, a
share. 

406
00:19:15,500 --> 00:19:19,100
That was my major by price. 
I bought 20,000 dollars worth at

407
00:19:19,100 --> 00:19:23,000
90 share, and then, I did an 
additional by about 120 apples 

408
00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:26,500
currently trading at 140. 
So, I'm not really wanting to 

409
00:19:26,500 --> 00:19:28,700
average up on this company too 
much. 

410
00:19:28,700 --> 00:19:30,700
In fact, right? 
Right now, I think the company 

411
00:19:30,700 --> 00:19:34,200
is a little bit expensive at 24 
PE based on the rest of the 

412
00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:35,900
market. 
So it makes sense that the 

413
00:19:35,900 --> 00:19:39,000
company's trading down a bit but
I'm not selling the company. 

414
00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:40,500
I'm not really buying it right 
now. 

415
00:19:40,500 --> 00:19:42,700
Apple to me is just to hold 
Facebook. 

416
00:19:42,700 --> 00:19:45,200
On the other hand is a company 
that for me right now is a by 

417
00:19:45,200 --> 00:19:48,300
Facebook trades. 
A day, 16 forward, P/E ratio. 

418
00:19:48,300 --> 00:19:51,400
Facebook has a lot of cash and 
not a lot of debt. 

419
00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:53,000
The company is highly 
profitable. 

420
00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:56,600
They generate consistent and 
growing free cash flow and it's 

421
00:19:56,600 --> 00:19:58,800
just a cheap company trades at a
very cheap multiple. 

422
00:19:58,800 --> 00:20:01,700
So in Market, there's no 
guarantees Facebook could trade 

423
00:20:01,700 --> 00:20:04,100
down more. 
But as of right now based on all

424
00:20:04,100 --> 00:20:06,200
the numbers you could run. 
It's one of the cheaper 

425
00:20:06,200 --> 00:20:08,600
companies in the market. 
So that's my portfolio on an 

426
00:20:08,600 --> 00:20:12,500
individual holding basis, but 
overall, I think on a more macro

427
00:20:12,500 --> 00:20:16,500
level the challenges we face as 
investors, I think are enormous 

428
00:20:16,500 --> 00:20:19,600
right now. 
We have a Fed that is hawkish. 

429
00:20:19,700 --> 00:20:22,400
And you've heard the phrase. 
Don't fight the FED. 

430
00:20:22,600 --> 00:20:24,700
Don't fight the FED when the FED
is on your side. 

431
00:20:24,700 --> 00:20:28,400
Like they had been for the past 
10 years, investing was easy. 

432
00:20:28,500 --> 00:20:30,900
Look at the graph. 
Over the past 10 years, you 

433
00:20:30,900 --> 00:20:33,600
bought basically anything 
half-decent and the prices went 

434
00:20:33,600 --> 00:20:35,000
up. 
That was the environment that 

435
00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:36,800
we're in, that is come to an 
end. 

436
00:20:37,000 --> 00:20:40,500
The FED is no longer our friend.
He has risen interest rates will

437
00:20:40,500 --> 00:20:43,000
continue to and he's now also 
going to be offloading. 

438
00:20:43,000 --> 00:20:44,700
The balance sheet. 
These are things that are 

439
00:20:44,700 --> 00:20:47,200
incredibly difficult to invest 
against. 

440
00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:49,900
So I have very low expectations 
over the next year. 

441
00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:51,300
I think that this could get 
worse. 

442
00:20:51,500 --> 00:20:54,000
I think that your discounted 
cash flow and your fair value. 

443
00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:57,300
Analysis could mean, basically 
nothing when you're trying to 

444
00:20:57,308 --> 00:20:59,500
fight the FED companies can 
trade Far Below. 

445
00:20:59,700 --> 00:21:02,900
They're intrinsic value for a 
very long period of time and the

446
00:21:02,900 --> 00:21:04,800
period of time that we're in 
right now, is a very difficult 

447
00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:07,500
one. 
Jerome Powell has said openly 

448
00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:11,200
that he will continue to raise 
interest rates until inflation 

449
00:21:11,200 --> 00:21:13,600
is under control. 
That's what he said. 

450
00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:17,200
He will raise interest rates and
tell inflation is under control.

451
00:21:17,400 --> 00:21:20,600
So if inflation does not get 
under control, interest rates 

452
00:21:20,600 --> 00:21:22,400
are going to go up as interest 
rates. 

453
00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:24,200
Go up. 
This portfolio will go down. 

454
00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:27,100
That is the basic analysis. 
There's not much more to it. 

455
00:21:27,100 --> 00:21:29,400
There's not anything I can do to
control that. 

456
00:21:29,500 --> 00:21:32,600
Since I can't predict interest 
rates, since I can't predict 

457
00:21:32,600 --> 00:21:35,900
inflation or oil prices. 
I am going to continue to stick 

458
00:21:35,900 --> 00:21:39,600
with my plan, which is good or 
bad continue to dollar cost 

459
00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:42,500
average in hold the companies 
and by the best deals that I 

460
00:21:42,508 --> 00:21:46,600
can, as I continually DC a n. 
So, that's the situation. 

461
00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:48,100
We're in. 
It's not a good one right now. 

462
00:21:48,100 --> 00:21:49,700
The market looks incredibly. 
Ugly. 

463
00:21:49,900 --> 00:21:52,400
Look at this chart here today. 
It's just awful. 

464
00:21:52,600 --> 00:21:56,400
TJX is like the only thing in 
the green today and most stuff, 

465
00:21:56,400 --> 00:21:59,100
even apples down 5.76 percent 
today. 

466
00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:02,500
Just incredibly bad Market, but 
hang in there. 

467
00:22:02,500 --> 00:22:05,000
We'll get through this together.
Thanks for watching, and I'll 

468
00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:01,800
see you in the next one. 
Just incredibly bad Market, but 

469
00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:03,700
hang in there. 
We'll get through this together.

470
00:22:03,900 --> 00:22:05,800
Thanks for watching, and I'll 
see you in the next one.