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I'm excited about this week. 
The next five days around half 

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the stock market is reporting 
earnings. 

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Many of the biggest companies in
the market, the biggest drivers 

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of the market, they're giving us
some insight into how they're 

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doing. 
That's all earnings reports are,

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is a look inside the company at 
how things are progressing. 

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And I think that's a lot of fun 
to look at because as an 

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investor, I want to see that my 
companies are moving along, 

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gaining in their earnings per 
share, gaining in their free 

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cash flow per share. 
They're gaining more customers. 

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The mote is widening. 
I want to see all those 

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important metrics improving over
time and earning season gets us 

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a chance to get more data points
on our companies, which I think 

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is really, really fun. 
So this next 5 days is going to 

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be a very busy, hectic, 
important week and it's going to

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drive the market either further 
up or things are going to 

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stagnate. 
And we might have a little bit 

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of a sell off because many of 
the biggest, most important 

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companies are showing what 
they're doing. 

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Now if we look specifically at 
the week and what's reporting 

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earnings, you can see the 
significance of this. 

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We have some of the biggest 
companies highlighted here, but 

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I also underline the ones that I
think are the most significant. 

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Starting off the week, we had 
Sofi just report earnings, 

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they're up big. 
So that's a good start to the 

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week. 
But then moving into Tuesday, we

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get to some bigger companies. 
We have MSCI there. 

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I highlighted this one because 
MSCI is an industry business 

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similar to S&P Global and it is 
an incredibly strong business. 

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I think that thing is a genuine 
compounding machine. 

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So it's one that I keep on my 
watch list. 

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I think it's a wonderful 
company. 

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I want to see how it's doing. 
Now we have some other companies

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that are blue chip average, S&P 
500 companies, JetBlue, UPSGM, 

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Pfizer. 
I'm not as interested in those 

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ones. 
I want to look at big tech, 

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Microsoft, AMD, Google, 
Starbucks, and then I'll also I 

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have to take a look at Canadian 
Pacific because I'm invested in 

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that one. 
But this day, Tuesday of this 

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week, Microsoft and Google 
reporting earnings is going to 

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be huge. 
Microsoft has to do well, and 

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they usually do. 
So I'll be going over my 

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predictions of Microsoft what I 
think Azure growth will be. 

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I'll also be looking at Google. 
What I expect to see with 

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tightening up their business a 
bit, cutting costs and growing 

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their cloud business, I have 
high expectations for Google as 

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an investor in that company as 
well. 

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And then we get to see how the 
food companies are doing. 

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Starbucks will be a tell of how 
well Chipotle will do and how 

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well Texas Roadhouse will do. 
That's the biggest food chain in

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the world. 
Starbucks is massive. 

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It's bigger than McDonald's. 
So this company's dramatically 

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important to the food industry. 
Moving on throughout the week, 

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on Wednesday, we have a lot of, 
again, your average blue chip 

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companies. 
We don't have time to go over 

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all of these. 
So we're not going to be talking

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about Boeing or Qualcomm, you 
know Aflac, all these companies.

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The one that I highlighted was 
MasterCard because I'm invested 

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in that company. 
I want to see how they're doing.

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And then Thursday, that is the 
other big day this week, 

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Thursday, we have Apple, Amazon 
and Meta reporting earnings. 

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Apple and Amazon are two 
companies that really move the 

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market. 
These are massive, massive 

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companies. 
With Apple. 

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We want to see resumed growth 
for a company that has stalled 

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with Amazon. 
We want to see good ads business

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growth and we want to see, of 
course the Azure cloud business.

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A lot of people focus on the 
cloud, but I think the ads 

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business is equally important. 
So we'll be looking at the 

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specific numbers with those two.
And then finally, we have meta, 

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which is going big into AI. 
They're buying a lot of chips 

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from NVIDIA. 
They're trying to create a big 

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AI powerhouse. 
So we have a busy week to get 

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into. 
We're going to be going over all

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of those companies in this video
left to right, Monday through 

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Friday. 
I think it's going to be a fun 1

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to get into. 
Now let's go ahead and start off

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the week by looking on Monday, 
Monday before market open. 

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The most significant earnings 
report was Sofi. 

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This is like a financial 
institution. 

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So it's like Ally Financial, but
they have some technology aspect

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to it where they create software
for managing investments in that

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type of stuff. 
So it's a fintech company in 

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some parts. 
I view Sofi as mostly a bank. 

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I think it's mostly a bank with 
some financial technology stuff 

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mixed in. 
So I don't find it the most 

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attractive investment, but I am 
excited about how the company's 

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doing. 
Today. 

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It's up 22%. 
It had a very rough start to the

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year, but it's recovered just in
a day. 

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So it's basically flat this 
year. 

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Now we have a note here from 
Qualtrum. 

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This says that Sofi shares are 
trading higher after the company

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reported better than expected Q4
revenues and that's what I 

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expect with these type of 
companies. 

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The only reason there's going to
be a big jump in a company like 

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this up 22% is because they 
really beat out investors 

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expectations. 
They reported something much 

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better similar to Netflix 
reporting that they gained 13 

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million subscribers when the 
Street was expecting like 9 

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million. 
That's such a massive beat and 

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expectations the stock jumped as
a result. 

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So if you're investing in a 
company, that's the biggest 

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reason it's going to change 
after market close. 

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Now in terms of analyst 
estimates, this is something 

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that I recently added in the 
Qualtrum. 

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We have a new section here. 
If you Scroll down below the 

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charts, it says analyst 
estimates right here above the 

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new section and you can see the 
current quarter, that's the 

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upcoming one. 
Right here you can see the 

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current year, this is 2023 and 
then you can see next year, 2024

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for each company. 
This will show you the number of

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analysts covering this company. 
In this case, it's 12 analysts 

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covering Sofi. 
It'll show you the average 

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estimate of all those 12, and 
then it will show you the low 

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and the high. 
The reason that I included the 

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low and the high is so that you 
can see a range. 

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You can see how how much of A 
discrepancy or how much of A 

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consensus there is with the 
estimates. 

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If there's a really low low and 
a really high high, that means 

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that analysts are guessing. 
They don't really know. 

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So the average is just the 
average of a bunch of guesses. 

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But then in some companies like 
Microsoft or in this case Sofi, 

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the average estimates pretty 
close to the high and low. 

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So there's a pretty close 
consensus between analyst 

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estimates. 
In this case, it looks like Sofi

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was expected to earn around a 
loss of $0.01, so they're 

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expected to lose 1 cent in 
earnings per share. 

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When they reported earnings, 
they actually gained 2 cents per

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share, so they beat their 
earnings per share by around 

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$0.03, which of course is a big 
beat. 

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Then if we look at the revenue 
here, we can flip over to 

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revenue again. 
We have the same thing. 

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The number of analysts, the 
average low and high, they're 

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supposed to earn between 538 
million to 606,000,000. 

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That's a pretty big range. 
That's a range of $60 million. 

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So the analysts are guessing the
average was around 562 and Sofi 

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reported 615,000,000. 
So Sofi beat not only the 

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average analyst estimate, they 
beat the high estimate, They 

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came in higher than the highest 
estimate from analysts. 

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So this was a massive beat by 
Sofi. 

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And if we look at that 615, 
that's really good. 

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The next one is going to be 
right around here. 

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So a big jump in revenue for 
this company. 

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If I was invested in Sofia, I'd 
be very satisfied with this 

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report. 
Next up before Tuesday morning, 

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we have MSCI. 
This company right here, I 

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consider a genuine compounding 
machine. 

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The reason why is because it's a
huge indicee business of mostly 

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foreign markets. 
So the way that S&P Global 

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controls the Dow Jones and the 
S&P 500 indicee, they license 

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that, they get a little bit of 
money, they license it and get a

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little bit of earnings every 
time you buy the S&P 500. 

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Well, that's something that MSCI
does for all of these foreign 

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exchanges and they have these 
huge secular trends, these huge 

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tailwinds of growth into that 
category. 

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And while they're doing this, 
it's a very capital light 

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business. 
So if we look at the metrics, 

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their revenue continually grows 
as more and more money moves 

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towards investments, more and 
more ETFs are linked to the MSCI

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indices. 
You can see the revenue growing 

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over time at a steady pace and 
you look at their expenses and 

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their expenses are very low. 
So it's a very good business 

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overall. 
Now if we look at the analyst 

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expectations for this company, 
we have earnings per share hair 

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the low of $3.14, the high of 
$3.53, average around $3.33 for 

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the quarter. 
If we look at that on the 

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earnings per share chart, $3.33 
would put them, let's see this 

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right here. 
Last quarter was $3.27. 

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So right about there, this is 
where it would put their next 

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quarter, which if you look at 
this, this is a beautiful chart.

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Their earnings per share just 
grows and grows and grows. 

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There's a couple quarters 
because of maybe taxes or one 

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time events where it goes down a
little bit, but you see this 

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nice trend. 
This is a compounder, a company 

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that has predictable, reliable 
growing earnings per share. 

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They have good cost structure 
control over their expenses and 

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they're expected to grow right 
in line business as usual, just 

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like every other quarter. 
Now if we look at the revenue 

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expectations for this next 
quarter, we have a lowest 

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637,000,000, a high of 
660,000,000 and the average 

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estimate of 651 million. 
So let's go ahead and take a 

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look at how that looks on the 
chart. 651 million, we'll put it

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right above last quarter, which 
was 625 S Again, analysts are 

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expecting that the revenue in 
the earnings per share tick up 

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just a bit more than last 
quarter. 

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So they're not expecting huge 
explosive growth. 

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They're just expecting things to
continue ticking up quarter 

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after quarter. 
And with the cost control this 

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company has, that leads to huge 
cash flows. 

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So as they grow, they have very 
reliable predictable cash flows.

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They issue a lot of buybacks, 
which grow their free cash flow 

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per share at a faster speed. 
So this is one that I think is 

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going to do just fine. 
I'm not concerned about MSCIS 

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earnings. 
It might go up a little bit 

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above estimates, a little bit 
below. 

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Either way, I think they'll grow
continually quarter after 

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quarter. 
They're going to gain a lot of 

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free cash flow per share. 
This is a company that I will 

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buy if it gets into a big enough
dip. 

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So I'll be looking at the price 
of it, hoping that there's some 

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fear in it, some problems that 
it dips big and I might enter a 

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position into that one. 
Now after MSCI on Tuesday market

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close, we have the big one, 
Microsoft reporting earnings. 

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I've called Microsoft the poster
child for the perfect 

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fundamentals for a company. 
In my opinion, when you're 

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looking at companies and doing 
analysis, when I bring up 

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Microsoft here and I just take a
look at all of their metrics, 

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it's nearly flawless. 
I can find a couple flaws, and 

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that's only with the amount of 
CapEx that Azure requires. 

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It's a little bit more capital 
intensive than most businesses, 

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but that's about it. 
I mean, you're being hyper 

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critical if you're trying to 
find flaws in Microsoft's 

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fundamentals. 
Every chart moves up and to the 

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right. 
They have far more cash than 

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they do debt. 
They pay dividends, they do 

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buybacks, They grow their 
earnings per share. 

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They're incredibly reliable. 
This is a company that has over 

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80% of revenues as recurring 
revenues, subscription revenue. 

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There's almost no flaws in the 
business. 

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I find it virtually, in fact, 
very close to the perfect type 

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of business. 
So of course, I've invested in 

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the business for a long period 
of time. 

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If we look at my holding care, 
I've held Microsoft around five 

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years. 
So my early buys on it did 

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particularly well, but that was 
with a little bit lower amounts 

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of capital. 
When Microsoft dipped down to 

228
00:11:06,200 --> 00:11:09,000
$220, I put a lot more into the 
company. 

229
00:11:09,000 --> 00:11:12,880
I bought another 200, sorry, 20 
or $30,000 of the company. 

230
00:11:12,880 --> 00:11:15,440
So now I own $66,000 of this 
company. 

231
00:11:15,440 --> 00:11:17,920
We're up $23,000 on it. 
Let's go ahead and take a look 

232
00:11:17,920 --> 00:11:20,320
at what the expectations are 
going into Microsoft. 

233
00:11:20,640 --> 00:11:22,880
If we look at the analyst 
estimates, we'll start off with 

234
00:11:22,880 --> 00:11:28,160
the earnings per share. 
We have a low of $2.62 and a 

235
00:11:28,160 --> 00:11:32,560
high of $2.79. 
It's very close together. 

236
00:11:32,560 --> 00:11:34,480
These aren't that different of 
estimates. 

237
00:11:34,800 --> 00:11:38,080
That means that analysts have 
have a basic consensus on what 

238
00:11:38,080 --> 00:11:41,360
they're going to earn, around 
$2.74. 

239
00:11:41,360 --> 00:11:43,680
That is the average analyst 
estimate. 

240
00:11:44,040 --> 00:11:46,280
Now it's likely going to be a 
bit above that. 

241
00:11:46,280 --> 00:11:49,320
Microsoft typically beats on 
their earnings per share. 

242
00:11:49,680 --> 00:11:52,760
If you look at 10 recent 
quarters, they will have beat on

243
00:11:52,760 --> 00:11:54,520
their earnings per share and 
around nine of them. 

244
00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:57,640
So they're very consistent, 
although not perfect at beating 

245
00:11:57,640 --> 00:11:59,920
in their earnings per share. 
And if I look at the average 

246
00:11:59,920 --> 00:12:05,960
estimate of $2.74, I'm going to 
say that they come in at $2.78. 

247
00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:07,240
We'll say that they come in 
there. 

248
00:12:07,520 --> 00:12:09,760
Let's take a look at what that 
would mean for the earnings per 

249
00:12:09,760 --> 00:12:11,880
share. 
We have right here, the long 

250
00:12:11,880 --> 00:12:14,160
history of Microsoft. 
Let's zoom into the past 10 

251
00:12:14,160 --> 00:12:19,760
years, $2.78 would put them 
right about here, so almost $3. 

252
00:12:20,040 --> 00:12:24,400
And then if we look 1234, that's
a sizable gain over last year. 

253
00:12:24,400 --> 00:12:27,080
So the earnings per share are 
jumping year over year and you 

254
00:12:27,080 --> 00:12:29,960
can see a long trend of 
Microsoft gaining in their EPS 

255
00:12:29,960 --> 00:12:32,080
every single quarter. 
Now if we flip over and look at 

256
00:12:32,080 --> 00:12:34,760
the revenue of the company, the 
analysts are expecting between 

257
00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:40,200
60.1 billion and 61.2 billion. 
So we have a little bit of a 

258
00:12:40,200 --> 00:12:42,760
range there. 
They're expecting on average 61 

259
00:12:42,760 --> 00:12:46,160
billion dollars, $61 billion 
would be an all time high in 

260
00:12:46,160 --> 00:12:48,480
revenue for Microsoft. 
In fact, it would put them right

261
00:12:48,480 --> 00:12:50,600
around here. 
So that'd be a pretty big jump. 

262
00:12:51,120 --> 00:12:53,240
That's going to be partly 
because of the acquisition, the 

263
00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:55,160
new revenue line coming in for 
the company. 

264
00:12:55,360 --> 00:12:58,600
So not all of that is organic, 
but still it's going to be a 

265
00:12:58,600 --> 00:13:02,280
record high for Microsoft. 
And as per usual, I think 

266
00:13:02,280 --> 00:13:05,200
they'll beat the revenue 
estimate maybe by a tiny bit, 

267
00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:07,000
but usually they come in just 
above it. 

268
00:13:07,000 --> 00:13:09,400
Now there are other aspects of 
Microsoft that are really 

269
00:13:09,400 --> 00:13:11,920
important, probably even more 
important than their earnings 

270
00:13:11,920 --> 00:13:15,400
per share and their revenue. 
That is the key indicators like 

271
00:13:15,400 --> 00:13:19,440
their Azure growth. 
Azure needs to grow by 29% this 

272
00:13:19,440 --> 00:13:22,800
quarter or more. 
If it comes in a little soft 28 

273
00:13:22,800 --> 00:13:26,960
percent 2726, you'll see some 
hesitancy with Microsoft. 

274
00:13:27,240 --> 00:13:30,920
If it comes in way disappointing
25%, something dramatic happens 

275
00:13:30,920 --> 00:13:33,320
like that, then Microsoft's 
going to sell off. 

276
00:13:33,400 --> 00:13:34,880
Investors won't be happy with 
that. 

277
00:13:35,160 --> 00:13:38,200
My expectations are that it's 
going to be very close to in 

278
00:13:38,200 --> 00:13:40,240
line. 
I believe it will be within 2%. 

279
00:13:40,520 --> 00:13:42,880
So I'm not hoping for any 
surprises here. 

280
00:13:42,880 --> 00:13:46,360
With my holding, I'm hoping that
Microsoft reports its numbers 

281
00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:48,840
mostly in line with 
expectations. 

282
00:13:49,160 --> 00:13:51,440
No big surprises. 
Either way would be great. 

283
00:13:51,640 --> 00:13:54,600
Next up we have AMD. 
This is not a company that I've 

284
00:13:54,600 --> 00:13:57,800
ever held because I think it's 
too unpredictable, but this 

285
00:13:57,800 --> 00:14:00,560
one's finding some explosive 
growth this year. 

286
00:14:00,680 --> 00:14:02,880
Let's take a look at AM DS 
expectations. 

287
00:14:02,880 --> 00:14:05,720
If we go over to the earnings 
per share, they're expecting a 

288
00:14:05,720 --> 00:14:10,520
low estimate of $0.75 per share,
a high estimate of a dollar one 

289
00:14:10,880 --> 00:14:14,880
and then the average is $0.83. 
This is a very big range of 

290
00:14:14,880 --> 00:14:17,760
earnings per share estimates so 
analysts don't have a huge 

291
00:14:17,760 --> 00:14:19,920
consensus here. 
When I bring up the earnings per

292
00:14:19,920 --> 00:14:23,640
share chart, this is the reason 
that I don't own AMD. 

293
00:14:23,800 --> 00:14:26,560
You can just outline this and 
see the roller coaster ride of 

294
00:14:26,560 --> 00:14:28,040
their earnings per share over 
time. 

295
00:14:28,400 --> 00:14:31,280
Some investors like to time the 
lows and highs. 

296
00:14:31,640 --> 00:14:34,760
I know throughout history and 
studying that trying to time 

297
00:14:34,760 --> 00:14:37,760
these type of companies is near 
impossible to do consistently 

298
00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:39,880
and at some point you're going 
to be thrown off. 

299
00:14:40,240 --> 00:14:43,520
So my lack of confidence in 
timing the ebbs and flows of 

300
00:14:43,520 --> 00:14:46,200
this roller coaster ride keeps 
me out of the stock. 

301
00:14:46,600 --> 00:14:49,200
If we look at their latest 
quarter though, we zoom in, in 

302
00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:52,760
the past ten years they said 
$0.83 I believe if we take a 

303
00:14:52,760 --> 00:14:57,360
look at it again, yes, $0.83, 
that puts it right about here. 

304
00:14:57,360 --> 00:15:00,640
So we have earnings per share 
that are going to jump big time,

305
00:15:00,960 --> 00:15:04,440
huge jump in earnings per share.
This is going to be a very big 

306
00:15:04,440 --> 00:15:08,560
quarter for AMD, and analysts 
don't know for sure where this 

307
00:15:08,560 --> 00:15:10,920
is going to come in. 
Now my guess is they're going to

308
00:15:10,920 --> 00:15:13,520
beat the analyst estimates. 
They're going to come in above, 

309
00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:17,560
closer to the high end of the 
estimates, So between $0.80 to a

310
00:15:17,560 --> 00:15:19,400
dollar. 
I think they'll report that. 

311
00:15:19,640 --> 00:15:22,280
The reason why is because 
there's a ton of demand for what

312
00:15:22,280 --> 00:15:25,240
AMD is creating. 
This company has a product that 

313
00:15:25,240 --> 00:15:28,080
a lot of companies want. 
Right now, it's not as good as 

314
00:15:28,080 --> 00:15:29,920
NVIDIA. 
They're not at that level. 

315
00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:32,800
But there's still massive demand
for AMD. 

316
00:15:33,320 --> 00:15:35,880
I see lots of consumer demand 
for it as well. 

317
00:15:36,120 --> 00:15:37,680
They have pricing power right 
now. 

318
00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:40,720
They can determine in large part
what their earnings are. 

319
00:15:41,040 --> 00:15:43,880
So I would be shocked if AMD 
came in as a huge 

320
00:15:43,880 --> 00:15:46,200
disappointment. 
Now moving on from Microsoft and

321
00:15:46,200 --> 00:15:49,560
AMD, the Next up we have is 
Google, and I think that this is

322
00:15:49,560 --> 00:15:51,240
going to be a very followed 
company. 

323
00:15:51,440 --> 00:15:54,360
A lot of investors are in Google
and I believe for good reason. 

324
00:15:54,600 --> 00:15:57,320
It seems like an obvious pick. 
Why wouldn't you want to invest 

325
00:15:57,320 --> 00:15:58,880
in Google? 
And I agree. 

326
00:15:58,880 --> 00:16:01,240
I think it's one of those 
companies where it's an obvious 

327
00:16:01,520 --> 00:16:04,280
great company right before your 
eyes that you can invest in. 

328
00:16:04,680 --> 00:16:07,920
Now in My Portfolio, I have the 
passive income portfolio, which 

329
00:16:07,920 --> 00:16:10,280
is my main one. 
I also have the story fund, my 

330
00:16:10,280 --> 00:16:14,440
secondary portfolio of which it 
has around $200,000 of value, 

331
00:16:14,680 --> 00:16:18,000
$41,000 in gains. 
And my third largest position, 

332
00:16:18,000 --> 00:16:20,880
which is a large concentrated 
position is Google. 

333
00:16:21,320 --> 00:16:24,240
The reason that I invest in 
Google is because I think the 

334
00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:28,240
company is undervalued and has 
great growth potential and 

335
00:16:28,240 --> 00:16:30,720
because it has a lot of 
inefficiencies that can be 

336
00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:33,080
corrected. 
So this is already a great 

337
00:16:33,080 --> 00:16:36,800
company that can become a little
bit greater if they correct a 

338
00:16:36,800 --> 00:16:39,160
lot of inefficiencies in the 
business itself. 

339
00:16:39,440 --> 00:16:41,960
So I think there's a lot of 
tailwinds and ways that Google 

340
00:16:41,960 --> 00:16:44,800
can earn more money. 
Now this has been a successful 

341
00:16:44,800 --> 00:16:49,000
holding so far. 
The holding size is $36,000, but

342
00:16:49,000 --> 00:16:52,240
around 10,000 of that is gains. 
So a significant portion of this

343
00:16:52,240 --> 00:16:55,520
holding already is gains. 
I'm really happy with how Google

344
00:16:55,520 --> 00:16:59,320
has done so far, but this is one
of those cases where even though

345
00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:02,360
the stock has gone up, I don't 
think all the gains are behind 

346
00:17:02,360 --> 00:17:04,119
it. 
I think it has more room to run.

347
00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:06,240
There's a lot more upside with 
this company. 

348
00:17:06,599 --> 00:17:08,680
Let's first go ahead and take a 
look at what the analysts are 

349
00:17:08,680 --> 00:17:11,720
expecting for this next quarter.
We look right here. 

350
00:17:11,720 --> 00:17:16,680
We have a low expectation or low
estimate of $1.42 and earnings 

351
00:17:16,680 --> 00:17:21,160
per share. 
A high estimate of $1.75 S 

352
00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:25,240
between $1.40 two $1.75 earnings
are likely going to land 

353
00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:28,960
somewhere in there. 
The average is around $1.63. 

354
00:17:28,960 --> 00:17:31,440
Let's go ahead and take a look 
at the earnings per share and 

355
00:17:31,440 --> 00:17:34,160
see how this stacks up. 
I like looking at the long term 

356
00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:37,000
history so you can see trends 
over time with these companies 

357
00:17:37,200 --> 00:17:38,520
and get better. 
Context. 

358
00:17:38,920 --> 00:17:45,640
Last quarter was $1.55 S $1.63 
would be right around here, just

359
00:17:45,640 --> 00:17:49,160
a smidge over $1.60 there. 
That's what it would look like 

360
00:17:49,720 --> 00:17:52,320
and that would be an all time 
high earnings per share for 

361
00:17:52,320 --> 00:17:56,720
Google and that would be a good 
continual recovery from 2022. 

362
00:17:56,880 --> 00:17:59,640
So if they hit their analyst 
average estimate or coming above

363
00:17:59,640 --> 00:18:02,240
that, that's going to be a very 
good story for Google. 

364
00:18:02,440 --> 00:18:05,680
Good continued growth overtime 
all time high earnings per 

365
00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:08,280
share, it's just going to be a 
really good thing for them. 

366
00:18:08,440 --> 00:18:11,160
So hopefully, Google will tell a
story this quarter of the 

367
00:18:11,160 --> 00:18:13,760
company's fundamentals improving
their earnings per share, 

368
00:18:13,760 --> 00:18:15,400
growing the revenue coming in 
line. 

369
00:18:15,680 --> 00:18:17,960
And then there's some other 
important aspects that I want to

370
00:18:17,960 --> 00:18:20,600
see this quarter, primarily with
Google. 

371
00:18:20,840 --> 00:18:23,920
The big three things that I'm 
looking for, I'm looking for 

372
00:18:23,920 --> 00:18:28,640
strong cloud growth, 2223% in 
line with estimates. 

373
00:18:28,800 --> 00:18:30,760
I want Google Cloud to do really
well. 

374
00:18:31,080 --> 00:18:33,720
And in terms of the cloud 
business, I want them to have 

375
00:18:34,240 --> 00:18:37,240
more operating leverage with it,
more profitability, higher 

376
00:18:37,240 --> 00:18:39,160
margins. 
I want the cloud to contribute 

377
00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:42,000
to the bottom line more. 
So hopefully they make it a 

378
00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:45,120
little bit better cost structure
because the cloud business at 

379
00:18:45,120 --> 00:18:48,440
Google has been a big money sink
for a long period of time, but 

380
00:18:48,440 --> 00:18:51,080
now it's finally earning money 
and contributing to the bottom 

381
00:18:51,080 --> 00:18:53,440
line. 
So I want the cloud business to 

382
00:18:53,440 --> 00:18:57,320
grow between 22 to 23%, the 
higher the better. 

383
00:18:57,720 --> 00:19:01,240
I want them to comment on AI, 
Gemini and show that their 

384
00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:03,600
business is not going to be 
disrupted by other people trying

385
00:19:03,600 --> 00:19:06,240
to create large language models 
and have text boxes. 

386
00:19:06,600 --> 00:19:08,320
I think that they'll be able to 
illustrate that. 

387
00:19:08,800 --> 00:19:11,160
And then the final thing that 
I'm looking for personally with 

388
00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:14,840
Google is better cost control. 
If Google can show these three 

389
00:19:14,840 --> 00:19:17,920
things, strong cloud growth, 
great engagement with their 

390
00:19:17,920 --> 00:19:20,520
search business, that they're 
not being disrupted, that they 

391
00:19:20,520 --> 00:19:24,240
have the AI tech and they can 
show great cost control, I 

392
00:19:24,240 --> 00:19:25,880
believe this stock can do a lot 
better. 

393
00:19:26,080 --> 00:19:28,200
Again, it's already up 10% this 
year. 

394
00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:31,040
It's doing really well. 
It's having a huge recovery, but

395
00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:33,240
the valuation of the company is 
not that demanding. 

396
00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:37,480
It trades out of 23, four PEA, 
3% free cash flow yield. 

397
00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:39,880
That's not demanding in today's 
market. 

398
00:19:39,960 --> 00:19:42,360
Google just needs a good report 
and I think they'll do really 

399
00:19:42,360 --> 00:19:44,560
well Now. 
Next up again on Tuesday, we 

400
00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:47,920
have Starbucks and this is one 
that I like paying attention to 

401
00:19:48,320 --> 00:19:52,240
because Starbucks is a big 
indicator for how the entire 

402
00:19:52,240 --> 00:19:54,360
food and consumer industry is 
doing. 

403
00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:57,080
I get to see how these quick 
service restaurants are doing 

404
00:19:57,400 --> 00:20:00,400
and it's very indicative of 
McDonald's, Chipotle, Texas 

405
00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:03,400
Roadhouse. 
Not perfectly equal, but it's 

406
00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:05,080
going to be a nice weather vane 
for it. 

407
00:20:05,560 --> 00:20:07,440
Now if we look at Starbucks, 
let's go ahead and take a look 

408
00:20:07,440 --> 00:20:09,320
at some of the analyst estimates
here. 

409
00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:13,120
For earnings per share, there's 
a low of $0.88, a high of a 

410
00:20:13,120 --> 00:20:15,920
dollar. 
One average is around $0.98. 

411
00:20:16,000 --> 00:20:18,400
If we bring up the earnings per 
share chart, we can see the long

412
00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:22,760
history of Starbucks. 98 cents 
would be right around here, so a

413
00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:26,680
little bit lower than the past 
two quarters, but up a lot since

414
00:20:26,680 --> 00:20:28,800
four quarters ago. 
So year over year, that's going 

415
00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:31,160
to be a really big gain. 
We have revenue estimates of a 

416
00:20:31,160 --> 00:20:35,720
low of 9.5 billion, a high of 
9.8 billion, the average of 

417
00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:38,200
9.71. 
So we're going to see a nice 

418
00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:41,640
step up in revenue to show that 
this company continues to 

419
00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:44,600
compound its revenue and grow 
quarter after quarter after 

420
00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:47,400
quarter. 
Now if I have to guess, I again 

421
00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:49,880
think that these type of 
companies are going to do well 

422
00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:53,000
and I've been beating the same 
drum for a long time. 

423
00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:54,440
I've been saying the same 
message. 

424
00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:57,200
I thought that last year food 
companies were going to do 

425
00:20:57,200 --> 00:21:00,000
really well. 
Starbucks, Chipotle, Texas 

426
00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:03,240
Roadhouse, you name it. 
Any top food company that has 

427
00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:06,000
great execution. 
I think there's lots of demand, 

428
00:21:06,120 --> 00:21:08,320
lots of people wanting to spend 
money on these companies. 

429
00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:10,280
They've made it a big part of 
the routine. 

430
00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:13,600
We have lots of young single 
adults or there's dual house 

431
00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:17,120
income, not as many children. 
There's more secular trends that

432
00:21:17,120 --> 00:21:19,920
make it so that there's more 
affordability for Starbucks. 

433
00:21:20,360 --> 00:21:23,040
So I again think that these type
of companies are going to do 

434
00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:26,000
really well now after Starbucks,
we have another company 

435
00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:29,120
reporting earnings again on 
Tuesday, which is Canadian 

436
00:21:29,120 --> 00:21:31,400
Pacific. 
This again is going to be a very

437
00:21:31,400 --> 00:21:34,000
busy day. 
Tuesday is such a huge day and I

438
00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:36,280
know that Canadian Pacific's 
earnings report is going to be 

439
00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:39,080
overshadowed by Microsoft and 
Google, but it's still an 

440
00:21:39,080 --> 00:21:41,920
important company to me because 
I have a significant investment 

441
00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:43,640
in it. 
The thesis on Canadian Pacific 

442
00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:46,360
is very simple. 
It has a great management team. 

443
00:21:46,360 --> 00:21:49,760
I love the CEO of the company. 
He's done magic with Canadian 

444
00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:53,880
Pacific with their new merger. 
He has more territory, more room

445
00:21:53,880 --> 00:21:57,920
to show what he's capable of. 
So Canadian Pacific's a great 

446
00:21:57,920 --> 00:22:01,600
asset with a great management 
team and I think that they can 

447
00:22:01,600 --> 00:22:04,600
create growth with those two 
things combined, I have 

448
00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:08,800
currently $33,000 holding in it 
and $700.00 of gains. 

449
00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:11,480
This has been my worst 
performing position over the 

450
00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:13,400
past two years. 
This is it. 

451
00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:16,760
Canadian Pacific is my worst 
investment over the past two 

452
00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:18,960
years. 
It's still in the green, so I 

453
00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:22,320
haven't lost money on it, which 
I'm happy about, but it has not 

454
00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:24,240
been a strikingly great 
performance. 

455
00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:27,280
It's been basically flat. 
I bought into the company in 

456
00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:30,360
2023. 
Now looking at Canadian Pacific,

457
00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:33,320
I'll outline the problem here. 
The earnings for sure on the low

458
00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:36,800
estimate is $0.78. 
On the high estimate it's $0.89 

459
00:22:37,120 --> 00:22:41,760
and the average is $0.85. 
Let's say that they earn $0.85 

460
00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:46,760
and see what this looks like. 
$0.85 is right here, so we have 

461
00:22:46,840 --> 00:22:51,120
between $1.80 there. 
It's going to be right there, 

462
00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:54,440
right in line of where they've 
been for the past two years. 

463
00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:57,680
So even if they meet the analyst
estimates, this is nothing 

464
00:22:57,680 --> 00:22:59,520
special. 
And that's the problem with 

465
00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:01,680
these companies. 
They're not growing earnings per

466
00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:05,320
share as fast as investors would
like and Canadian Pacific needs 

467
00:23:05,320 --> 00:23:08,040
to accelerate this growth. 
Now if we look at the revenue 

468
00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:11,160
estimate, the low end is 2.59 
billion, the high estimate is 

469
00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:14,520
2.75. 
The average estimates around 2.7

470
00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:16,240
billion. 
When we look at that over the 

471
00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:19,680
history, this large jump in 
revenue right here is not 

472
00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:22,360
organic. 
That was from an acquisition and

473
00:23:22,360 --> 00:23:26,160
they're expecting right now 
2.75, which is right around 

474
00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:27,880
there. 
So a little bit of a bounce 

475
00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:30,720
back, but overall a huge growth 
year over year. 

476
00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:34,200
This is going to normalize over 
time as the acquisition works 

477
00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:36,480
through. 
So the story with Canadian 

478
00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:40,200
Pacific is them getting through 
this acquisition, cutting costs,

479
00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:43,960
getting new clients, making 
magic out of this acquisition. 

480
00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:47,080
If they're not able to, if they 
just show quarter after quarter 

481
00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:49,680
that they're coming in under the
estimates, they're not meeting 

482
00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:52,400
their growth expectations, 
they're not able to make magic 

483
00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:55,240
happen with this acquisition, 
then I am going to dump the 

484
00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:56,280
stock. 
Eventually. 

485
00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:59,520
I'll still make a gain from it, 
but I don't want to hold so much

486
00:23:59,520 --> 00:24:02,400
capital in companies that are 
lagging behind. 

487
00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:05,760
I need an All Star team where 
every single holding in My 

488
00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:07,800
Portfolio is moving along 
quickly. 

489
00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:11,040
I don't want companies that are 
falling behind struggling with 

490
00:24:11,040 --> 00:24:13,000
their fundamentals. 
So we're going to see what 

491
00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:15,720
Canadian Pacific is. 
Is this a company struggling 

492
00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:18,200
with fundamentals, struggling to
get the acquisition under 

493
00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:22,120
control or is it going to be an 
All Star player that really is 

494
00:24:22,120 --> 00:24:25,040
moving things along Now it's 
going to be tough to judge in 

495
00:24:25,040 --> 00:24:27,800
this one quarter, but this will 
be one more data point along 

496
00:24:27,800 --> 00:24:29,400
this story. 
So I'm going to be looking 

497
00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:31,640
closely at the developments 
happening with that company. 

498
00:24:31,800 --> 00:24:34,200
After Canadian Pacific, we have 
MasterCard. 

499
00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:37,360
I love this digital duopoly. 
I think they're two of the most 

500
00:24:37,360 --> 00:24:40,120
misunderstood companies by 
retail investors and two of the 

501
00:24:40,120 --> 00:24:42,360
best companies in the market. 
The reason that I think 

502
00:24:42,360 --> 00:24:45,880
MasterCard is so misunderstood 
by retail investors is because 

503
00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:49,360
retail investors think that 
MasterCard issues credit cards. 

504
00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:52,400
MasterCard does not issue credit
cards. 

505
00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:55,960
Banks do. 
They think that MasterCard makes

506
00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:58,480
a ton of money and they charge 
3% to merchants. 

507
00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:01,480
MasterCard does not make a ton 
of money by charging 3% to 

508
00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:03,760
merchants. 
They have the minority take out 

509
00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:06,320
of the banks. 
So MasterCard is a digital 

510
00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:09,560
company that networks, banks, 
merchants and customers 

511
00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:11,760
together. 
They don't issue credit cards. 

512
00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:13,920
They never have. 
And they have a lot of other 

513
00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:17,560
services outside of that digital
network where for example, they 

514
00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:20,520
do value add services like 
knowing your customer 

515
00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:23,360
cybersecurity, seeing trends in 
industries. 

516
00:25:23,360 --> 00:25:25,960
They have so much data that they
can sell to other companies. 

517
00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:28,360
So they also have this nice 
reoccurring subscription 

518
00:25:28,360 --> 00:25:31,120
business, which is very 
attractive in a way. 

519
00:25:31,120 --> 00:25:34,400
It's similar to Moody's and S&P 
Global where they have one big 

520
00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:37,400
core business and then they 
leverage that to sell a lot of 

521
00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:40,360
unique data to companies. 
There's not a lot of companies 

522
00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:42,960
that have the same data as 
MasterCard, so that gives them a

523
00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:46,680
unique competitive advantage in 
their subscription businesses. 

524
00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:48,920
So I like both parts of this 
company. 

525
00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:52,360
Mastercard's a little bit unique
compared to Visa and that they 

526
00:25:52,360 --> 00:25:55,760
have more international growth, 
but both of them are fantastic. 

527
00:25:56,200 --> 00:26:00,240
I hold this company as a $70,000
position and I'm currently 

528
00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:04,960
$11,900 in the green and I'd 
feel fine buying more MasterCard

529
00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:06,920
today. 
I really, really like this 

530
00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:09,440
company. 
We saw Visa's earnings. 

531
00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:13,840
If we look at Visa this year, it
had a dip after earnings and 

532
00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:16,080
people thought, what do I think 
about this dip? 

533
00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:19,240
I thought it was a big nothing, 
Completely nothing. 

534
00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:21,920
Didn't matter. 
It was like a 1% dip when Visa 

535
00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:25,520
had been up 5% year to date. 
So it was nothing. 

536
00:26:25,520 --> 00:26:28,400
Visa's earnings were right in 
line of expectations. 

537
00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:31,440
Business as usual, nothing 
unexpected. 

538
00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:34,360
I expect the exact same for 
MasterCard. 

539
00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:38,600
Business as usual, right in 
line, barely above or below 

540
00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:40,760
analyst estimates, nothing 
unusual. 

541
00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:43,000
We can look at the earnings per 
share estimate to just get an 

542
00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:44,160
idea of what we're looking at 
here. 

543
00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:46,840
The average analyst is expecting
around $3. 

544
00:26:47,320 --> 00:26:51,400
If we look at that, it's going 
to be again right around here. 

545
00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:56,960
So going up over time, a lot 
more than the past year, growing

546
00:26:56,960 --> 00:26:58,840
as usual. 
This is what a compounding 

547
00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:02,440
machine does, this nice 
consistent earnings growth over 

548
00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:05,320
a long period of time. 
I love seeing that with these 

549
00:27:05,320 --> 00:27:08,240
companies In terms of the 
revenue, we can take a look at 

550
00:27:08,240 --> 00:27:11,600
that as well. 
The low estimate is 6.14. 

551
00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:17,000
The highest min is 6.47 and then
the average is 6.27 billion. 

552
00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:19,840
We can look at how 6.27 billion 
looks. 

553
00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:22,280
That would put it just above 
here. 

554
00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:26,040
We have last quarter at 6.5 
right there, two quarters ago, 

555
00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:28,920
6.27. 
So it's going to be similar to 

556
00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:32,320
two quarters ago right there. 
And of course year over year, 

557
00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:34,480
that's a nice gain year over 
year. 

558
00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:37,400
MasterCard is a truly wonderful 
business and I'm going to own 

559
00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:40,840
this company until they reveal a
reason why they're no longer 

560
00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:42,800
wonderful. 
But I don't expect them to do 

561
00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:45,760
that in this earnings report. 
Now moving on from MasterCard, 

562
00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:49,280
we get into the next very busy 
earnings day of the week, which 

563
00:27:49,280 --> 00:27:51,760
is Thursday. 
This is like Tuesday. 

564
00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:54,360
It's going to be a chaotic, 
messy, busy day. 

565
00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:57,440
We have Apple's earnings report 
after market close. 

566
00:27:57,520 --> 00:27:59,960
Now, if you followed the channel
for a while, you'll know that I 

567
00:27:59,960 --> 00:28:01,960
owned Apple. 
I've owned this company since 

568
00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:04,320
the very beginning. 
I bought my first share of Apple

569
00:28:04,320 --> 00:28:06,760
in 2017. 
It was $200. 

570
00:28:06,760 --> 00:28:09,680
I bought a fractional share of 
the company and it's grown and 

571
00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:12,400
grown and grown. 
Over the past five years, Apple 

572
00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:16,240
has gained over 300% gains. 
From 2017, it's gained over 

573
00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:19,240
500%. 
So this company has been just 

574
00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:20,640
incredible. 
I mean it's blown away 

575
00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:22,360
expectations over and over 
again. 

576
00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:25,880
Over that same time period of me
owning this company, Apple has 

577
00:28:25,880 --> 00:28:30,560
averaged a growth of free cash 
flow per share of above 15%, so 

578
00:28:30,560 --> 00:28:32,920
around double what the S&P 500 
has. 

579
00:28:33,120 --> 00:28:36,080
SPY gross free cash flow per 
share on average around 8%. 

580
00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:39,680
Apple has been at 15%. 
Now I have a current holding 

581
00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:43,480
size of 55,026 thousand of that 
being gained. 

582
00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:45,920
So this has been again another 
big winner in the portfolio. 

583
00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:48,760
Now let's go ahead and take a 
look at Apple this quarter and 

584
00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:51,280
this year. 
I first want to look annually to

585
00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:53,880
see how we believe Apple's going
to close out the year. 

586
00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:57,240
If we look at the earnings per 
share, the average estimate for 

587
00:28:57,240 --> 00:29:01,800
the annual is $6.39. 
That's what analysts are 

588
00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:05,200
expecting, which if we look at 
the graph here, that means that 

589
00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:11,000
we believe 2023 will turn out to
be right around here, just a 

590
00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:14,320
nice step up around 6% growth 
year over year. 

591
00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:16,520
That's not fast growth for 
Apple. 

592
00:29:16,520 --> 00:29:19,320
In fact, that's very slow. 
You can see historically they've

593
00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:22,320
had much bigger jumps, 
especially in 2020. 

594
00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:25,560
Apple certainly had some pull 
forward in 2020 that they're 

595
00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:27,960
still dealing with, but it's 
nice to see that they're 

596
00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:30,320
resuming a little bit of growth 
this next quarter. 

597
00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:31,960
And then we can look at the 
revenue for Apple. 

598
00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:33,800
This is another issue for the 
company. 

599
00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:37,720
We look at the full year 2023 
average estimate for the revenue

600
00:29:37,960 --> 00:29:41,880
and we get 400.5 billion. 
So that's what the analysts are 

601
00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:44,800
expecting. 
When I look at this overall 400 

602
00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:47,800
billion, if they're able to do 
that, you can see that it's just

603
00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:53,000
a slight step up from 2022. 
So not much growth, just a few 

604
00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:57,160
percentage of revenue growth. 
So the story of Apple in 2023 is

605
00:29:57,160 --> 00:30:00,480
one of slowing growth, slow top 
line growth, slow bottom line, 

606
00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:03,760
slow revenue, slow earnings per 
share, slow free cash flow per 

607
00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:05,680
share. 
Tim Cook's doing everything he 

608
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:08,760
can to continue growing this big
beast of a company. 

609
00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:11,280
He's coming out with a new 
product, the Apple Vision Pro. 

610
00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:14,600
He's pushing a lot of services. 
He's doing a lot of buybacks to 

611
00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:17,800
grow your equity in the company.
He's doing everything right. 

612
00:30:18,080 --> 00:30:19,920
So this is at no fault of his 
own. 

613
00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:22,000
This is no issue with Apple's 
management. 

614
00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:26,080
The big question for investors 
in Apple is can this company 

615
00:30:26,080 --> 00:30:28,520
continue to grow because 
evaluation is not going to 

616
00:30:28,520 --> 00:30:30,800
expand that much. 
So it's going to have to grow 

617
00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:34,880
its intrinsic value by revenue, 
free cash flow per share and by 

618
00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:37,960
the Moat improving. 
That's a question for me as 

619
00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:39,840
well. 
I've done really well with Apple

620
00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:42,600
over the past five years, but 
I've not bought this company in 

621
00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:45,160
the past year because the 
valuation has gone up and the 

622
00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:47,480
growth has slown. 
And I have other companies in My

623
00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:49,880
Portfolio that are growing much 
faster than Apple. 

624
00:30:50,440 --> 00:30:53,040
So I think this quarter will be 
fine. 

625
00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:56,920
My guess is that Apple likely 
beat their estimates, but I'm 

626
00:30:56,920 --> 00:31:00,480
looking at a longer trend here. 
I want to see Apple continue to 

627
00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:04,400
push services, continue to push 
growth if they're not able to 

628
00:31:04,400 --> 00:31:06,600
for another year and it looks 
like the company has reached 

629
00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:10,680
more of a mature slow growing 
phase and I'll likely start to 

630
00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:13,160
trim my position and find other 
holdings. 

631
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:16,760
But I'm still hopeful that Apple
can continue some growth. 

632
00:31:17,120 --> 00:31:19,560
We'll have to see. 
Next up after Apple, we have 

633
00:31:19,560 --> 00:31:21,880
Amazon. 
This is another big holding of 

634
00:31:21,880 --> 00:31:24,520
mine. 
I hold Amazon in the story fund 

635
00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:29,840
and it is a large position, 
67,000 dollars, 9700 of that 

636
00:31:29,840 --> 00:31:32,080
being gains. 
So this one has been a winning 

637
00:31:32,080 --> 00:31:33,960
position, but it's been a bit 
volatile. 

638
00:31:34,240 --> 00:31:36,920
Amazon has been all over the 
place for the past three years. 

639
00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:40,560
I believe the company is 
undervalued and I'm valuing that

640
00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:45,000
based off of projecting around 
$70 billion of free cash flow in

641
00:31:45,000 --> 00:31:47,680
2024. 
So I think this year is going to

642
00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:50,760
be a very big year for Amazon. 
Let's go ahead and take a look 

643
00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:53,560
at how they plan on closing out 
2023. 

644
00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:55,720
If we look at the analyst 
estimates of the earnings per 

645
00:31:55,720 --> 00:31:58,880
share, you can see that there's 
not a huge consensus here. 

646
00:31:59,120 --> 00:32:02,240
The range of the earnings per 
share estimates are very wide, 

647
00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:06,960
the low end being $0.32, the 
high end being $0.87. 

648
00:32:07,360 --> 00:32:11,400
So a huge discrepancy, huge 
range in the an assessments with

649
00:32:11,400 --> 00:32:14,920
an average around $0.62. 
Do these analysts know where 

650
00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:16,200
this earnings per share is going
to lie? 

651
00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:19,520
No they don't, but odds are it's
going to be somewhere between 

652
00:32:19,520 --> 00:32:21,840
this range. 
If we look at this on the chart,

653
00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:24,920
this is massive growth in their 
earnings per share on a year 

654
00:32:24,920 --> 00:32:27,920
over year basis. 
So round right here is what the 

655
00:32:27,920 --> 00:32:32,240
analysts are expecting. 1234 
quarters ago, their earnings per

656
00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:35,320
share was basically nothing. 
So we're going to see a big 

657
00:32:35,320 --> 00:32:38,840
spike in EPS year over year. 
That's good, but that's not the 

658
00:32:38,840 --> 00:32:41,920
most important part of Amazon. 
The revenue I actually believe 

659
00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:44,520
is more important. 
We have revenue estimates on the

660
00:32:44,520 --> 00:32:49,000
low end of 146 billion, On the 
high end 163 billion. 

661
00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:53,080
The average is 157 billion. 
This is going to be a big 

662
00:32:53,080 --> 00:32:57,000
quarter for Amazon, 157 billion.
It's right around there. 

663
00:32:57,360 --> 00:33:00,960
So a nice tick up from all these
other spikes year over year over

664
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:03,000
year. 
So Amazon is a fast growing 

665
00:33:03,000 --> 00:33:04,880
company. 
It's growing its top line, it's 

666
00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:07,360
growing its bottom line. 
But the most important thing is 

667
00:33:07,360 --> 00:33:10,160
it's growing the high margin 
portions of its business. 

668
00:33:11,080 --> 00:33:13,720
AWS needs to grow around 12% or 
more. 

669
00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:17,800
We see really soft AWS growth in
the single digits. 

670
00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:20,480
That would be bad. 
If it's 10% or more, I think 

671
00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:23,640
investors will be OK with that. 
But we really want to see AWS 

672
00:33:23,680 --> 00:33:27,560
growth of 12% or more. 
Then we also want the ad revenue

673
00:33:27,560 --> 00:33:30,920
to come in very strong. 
The ad revenue is another big 

674
00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:34,560
part of Amazon's business. 
I think if we see strong revenue

675
00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:38,080
growth, strong AWS growth and 
strong advertising revenue, 

676
00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:40,920
we're going to see very good 
results from Amazon. 

677
00:33:41,200 --> 00:33:43,280
This is a company that I'm very 
bullish on this year. 

678
00:33:43,800 --> 00:33:46,520
Lots of free cash flow, lots of 
growth ahead of it, and I like 

679
00:33:46,520 --> 00:33:49,440
the valuation of it currently. 
But be warned, Amazon's a very 

680
00:33:49,440 --> 00:33:52,320
difficult company to predict 
quarter by quarter, so I'd not 

681
00:33:52,320 --> 00:33:54,080
bet on this one in the short 
term. 

682
00:33:54,280 --> 00:33:57,520
Now after Amazon, we have meta 
reporting at the same time. 

683
00:33:57,640 --> 00:33:59,960
So let's bring up meta and take 
a look at the anal assessments 

684
00:33:59,960 --> 00:34:02,720
for this one. 
Next quarter on the low end we 

685
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:07,880
have $3.94, on the high end we 
have $5.22. 

686
00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:09,840
That's a big discrepancy as 
well. 

687
00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:14,120
So we have quite a range there. 
The average is around $4.69. 

688
00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:18,639
Let's take a look at how this 
stacks up on the chart. $4.69 

689
00:34:18,639 --> 00:34:23,120
would put it right around here 
at an all time high, which is 

690
00:34:23,120 --> 00:34:26,080
very good to see. 
So if they hit this average 

691
00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:29,360
analyst estimate or anywhere 
above that, that's really good 

692
00:34:29,360 --> 00:34:32,360
for the shareholders here. 
It shows not only recovery over 

693
00:34:32,360 --> 00:34:35,040
the past year, which is 
important because the earnings 

694
00:34:35,040 --> 00:34:38,880
tanked, but also just generally 
a nice trend of growing earnings

695
00:34:38,880 --> 00:34:41,719
per share. 
So this still is a story of a 

696
00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:44,520
company that's growing earnings 
at a steady cadence. 

697
00:34:44,679 --> 00:34:48,199
Now on the revenue, we have a 
low estimate of 38 billion, a 

698
00:34:48,199 --> 00:34:54,040
high estimate of 39 and the 
average 38.6938 point 6-9 would 

699
00:34:54,040 --> 00:34:56,560
be an all new high for meta. 
It'd be right around here. 

700
00:34:56,840 --> 00:35:00,800
So we'd see strong organic top 
line growth and strong earnings 

701
00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:04,200
per share growth if they meet 
their metrics, which I believe 

702
00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:06,520
meta will. 
The company has been very 

703
00:35:06,520 --> 00:35:08,680
focused. 
Zuckerberg has been very focused

704
00:35:09,080 --> 00:35:12,120
on appeasing Wall Street, making
sure he's doing a good job for 

705
00:35:12,120 --> 00:35:15,840
them, while also doing the 
Metaverse and his own different 

706
00:35:15,840 --> 00:35:18,440
things he's wanting to do. 
He's done a good job balancing 

707
00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:20,840
both. 
For a while he was concerning 

708
00:35:20,840 --> 00:35:24,400
Wall Street by jumping super 
heavy into the Metaverse, and 

709
00:35:24,400 --> 00:35:26,200
that's what caused the stock to 
sell off. 

710
00:35:26,600 --> 00:35:30,040
I sold my position in meta, the 
huge majority of it, right here.

711
00:35:30,280 --> 00:35:32,080
So I got out before the huge 
drop. 

712
00:35:32,480 --> 00:35:36,560
Then it came all the way down 
here, and Zuckerberg turned the 

713
00:35:36,560 --> 00:35:40,000
stock around by doing the Year 
of efficiency, by saying that 

714
00:35:40,000 --> 00:35:42,320
he's cutting costs, he was 
laying off a lot of employees. 

715
00:35:42,520 --> 00:35:45,000
He's going to focus more on Wall
Street's demands of making the 

716
00:35:45,000 --> 00:35:48,080
company more profitable on a 
free cash flow basis, so on and 

717
00:35:48,080 --> 00:35:50,840
so forth. 
That was like music to the heirs

718
00:35:50,840 --> 00:35:53,840
of investors. 
And the stock has been on a rip 

719
00:35:53,840 --> 00:35:57,040
since then. 
And this is very similar to what

720
00:35:57,040 --> 00:35:59,640
investors want from Google. 
They want the year of 

721
00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:02,400
efficiency, better focus, better
execution. 

722
00:36:02,720 --> 00:36:05,760
But Mark Zuckerberg was able to 
pull off the year of efficiency.

723
00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:09,240
It worked super well. 
The stock is now at $400.00 per 

724
00:36:09,240 --> 00:36:12,920
share and I think it's still has
some room to run if they post a 

725
00:36:12,920 --> 00:36:16,360
good earnings. 
The valuation is not capping the

726
00:36:16,360 --> 00:36:19,160
progress of this company. 
It's at a higher valuation now, 

727
00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:21,240
but not crazy. 
I think it still has a decent 

728
00:36:21,240 --> 00:36:24,120
amount of room to run and that 
will wrap up the very busy week 

729
00:36:24,120 --> 00:36:25,880
ahead of us. 
So if you want to see how this 

730
00:36:25,880 --> 00:36:29,000
turns out and my thoughts on 
these companies earnings, I'm 

731
00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:31,520
going to be digging into the 
financials, the earnings report 

732
00:36:31,680 --> 00:36:34,040
going over my thoughts of 
whether or not the intrinsic 

733
00:36:34,040 --> 00:36:36,880
value has gone up or down, 
whether or not the Moat has 

734
00:36:36,880 --> 00:36:40,000
gotten bigger or weaker. 
I'll be doing that on many of 

735
00:36:40,000 --> 00:36:42,240
these companies. 
So if you want to see that post 

736
00:36:42,240 --> 00:36:45,160
earnings analysis, just make 
sure to subscribe to the channel

737
00:36:45,160 --> 00:36:47,680
with the Bell notification on. 
That's all for this time. 

738
00:36:47,880 --> 00:36:48,680
See you in the next one.