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Welcome everyone. 
Thanks for joining. 

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We have a lot to get to in this 
episode of the drill. 

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So Carlson show, of course, I'm 
going to be doing a portfolio 

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update. 
So I'll show you what I'm 

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buying, what companies, I think 
are good value. 

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I'll give you a quick update of 
what's going on with the 

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portfolio, but we also have some
other important subjects to get 

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241 inflation. 
Seems to be out of control. 

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It's going higher and higher and
we've now entered into a very 

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difficult situation where the 
FED has to raise interest rates 

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without Causing a recession and 
that's a pretty difficult thing 

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to do. 
It's so difficult that a lot of 

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forecasters are now increasing 
their chances and their 

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forecasts predictions of a 
recession and this has generated

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a lot of Buzz, a lot of talk 
over time. 

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So in this episode we're going 
to go through and actually 

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assess the probability of a 
recession and see how that plays

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in to our investing strategy. 
And then we have another topic I

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want to discuss that I think is 
very important. 

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In fact, I actually think it's 
more important than all. 

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Is macro events and that is the 
principle of discipline. 

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This is something that frankly 
looking around on on YouTube and

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Twitter and with individual 
investors and investors in 

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general discipline is lacking 
and I think that this is an 

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incredibly important topic. 
So I'll be discussing how I 

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think discipline plays into 
every other form of investing 

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and how you can actually develop
discipline with your investing 

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strategy. 
So we have a lot to get into a 

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lot to go over if you want to 
subscribe To the channel. 

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You can do so on Fall along for 
free. 

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I get frequent updates with my 
portfolio at least once a week, 

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and I do so with complete 
transparency. 

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So if you want to see how real 
money invested in real 

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companies, turns out over a long
period of time, you can follow 

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along for free. 
Now let's go ahead and quickly 

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start off with the portfolio 
update. 

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This is my personal portfolio, 
it's real money. 

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I have three hundred and 
thirty-five thousand dollars and

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thirty-five thousand six hundred
and gains. 

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The first thing that I want to 
mention is it's difficult. 

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Especially as somewhat of a 
public Financial figure to give 

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updates on your portfolio when 
it's basically doing nothing but

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losing more and more money going
down in value month after month 

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and week after week. 
If I look at my portfolio right 

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now I look at thirty five 
thousand six hundred dollars in 

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gains and that's okay but just 
three months ago we are at 80 

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thousand dollars in gains. 
So we've given up a lot of gains

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over the past three months and 
if I just go to the past one 

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month, And we're down twenty 
five thousand dollars in the 

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past one month that's a lot of 
money. 

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And when you're looking at this,
it's very easy to become 

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discouraged to feel like you're 
a bad investor to feel like you 

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should give up, but I don't 
think that's the right attitude 

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to have. 
Keep in mind that this money 

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right here is not actual money. 
I don't have money in my 

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brokerage, I own equity and 
companies and this is basically 

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a bid of what people are willing
to pay for those equities. 

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He's right now, this minute and 
this bid can change over time. 

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In fact, it changes every single
day. 

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It's the equivalent of looking 
at your home on Zillow and 

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seeing what the current value of
it is, does it really matter 

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what your home is valued at 
right now? 

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If you don't intend on selling 
is your home value. 

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Even relevant to you if you 
don't intend on selling right 

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now. 
Well not really and that's the 

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way that I look at my portfolio 
right now. 

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The price has gone down but I 
don't plan on selling my 

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positions in fact, when the 
price is Down that gives you the

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opportunity to buy more and 
that's all I've been doing with 

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my portfolio. 
I've been buying a little bit 

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more every single week as stocks
drop further. 

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And further, I just recently 
highlighted and my previous 

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video of how I thought JP Morgan
was good value so I bought an 

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additional 2,000 dollars of this
company. 

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It pays above a 3.1 percent, 
yield Starbucks. 

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Also continue to trade down into
the high 70s, which I think is 

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incredibly good value for this 
company. 

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So I dollar cost average further
down, lowering my Cost basis and

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buying an additional thousand 
dollars of this company and I 

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remain very bullish on it. 
Despite the fact that the price 

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currently isn't looking good, 
you know it's going down in 

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price and that's discouraging 
but really, I remain very 

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bullish on this company. 
So overall, all I've been doing 

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with my portfolio is keeping my 
Holdings, and great companies 

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and buying ones that I think are
offering particularly good value

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right now. 
So, as we go throughout the next

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couple of months, it's becoming 
an increasingly emotionally and 

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difficult. 
Time to invest, we can look at 

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days like today. 
My portfolios up two percent. 

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Six thousand six hundred dollars
today. 

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When you look at these big 
numbers going up, you can become

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optimistic and that's something 
that amateur investors and new 

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investors often. 
Do you get Hope on the up days? 

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Then on the downturns, you get 
very discouraged. 

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I don't think that's the way 
that you should look at it. 

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We shouldn't be very happy when 
stock prices go up and we 

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shouldn't be super sad. 
When stock prices go down, you 

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should try to only disconnect 
from your portfolio, not have 

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that play a factor realize that 
you're buying high quality, 

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equities cash, producing assets 
and regardless. 

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If the stock market goes down or
up, these companies are still 

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producing a return on their 
investment Capital. 

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They're still growing their 
revenues and growing their 

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sales. 
So over time whether the market 

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realizes it my portfolio is 
growing. 

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Now big part of the reason why 
investing is so difficult right 

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now is because of the ongoing 
macroeconomic events, like 

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inflation. 
Malaysian seems to be getting 

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out of control. 
We're now in a situation where 

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it seems like it's on the verge 
of a death spiral where 

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inflation goes higher employers,
start paying their employees 

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more to adjust for inflation 
employees have more money, 

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creating more demand, which 
causes more inflation. 

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That seems like the route we're 
headed down now luckily the FED 

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has a tool to curb inflation. 
They have a tool to completely 

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stop, it called interest rates, 
if they higher interest rates 

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that will stop inflation. 
The problem is the in Interest 

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rates are a blunt tool and they 
have side effects. 

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One of the big ones is that if 
you raise interest rates too 

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much, history shows that has a 
good chance of causing 

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recession. 
So the FED has a tool to deal 

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with inflation but they have to 
deal with the recession 

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possibility as well and 
forecasters believe that this is

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getting to be a tougher 
situation for the fed and 

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they're raising their forecasts 
of a chance of a recession 

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caused. 
By the FED hiking interest 

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rates. 
So if we actually look at the 

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situation we're in right now, 
it's pretty complex. 

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Basically, before Russia invaded
Ukraine, the outlook for the US 

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economy was stressed but hopeful
pandemic pressures appear to be 

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peeking. 
Inflation was widely, expected 

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to normalize and the FED stood, 
a credible chance of 

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engineering, a soft Landing 
meaning, they lower inflation 

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without causing a recession, but
they note the situation has 

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changed an enormous amount of 
carrying atrocity in Europe has 

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triggered an unpredictable 
Global Financial and economic 

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conflict. 
That will see Sequences Ricochet

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though, new risks have emerged 
and uncertainty is higher at 

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present the main impact on the 
crisis. 

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On the US economy is the 
exacerbation of existing 

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pressures and risks. 
The path of inflation and the 

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policies to contain it remain 
the main threat to the cycle. 

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So they're basically sing the 
biggest threat to causing a 

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recession right now is a misuse 
of fed policy. 

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Them going to aggressive with 
raising interest rates and they 

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say, while the risk has gone up,
it need not be a Real come. 

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So they're saying that even 
though there is an increased 

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risk of recession, it's still 
not entirely necessary. 

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Now, I'm still in the camp that 
even though I think there's a 

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decent chance of a recession in 
the u.s., I still believe 

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there's a good chance. 
We will get through this without

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causing a huge recession. 
First of all, a lot of the 

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things that were causing 
inflation seem to have peaked 

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and are now actually leveling 
off the demand for retail sales 

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is actually going down. 
This is a good thing. 

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This will put less pressure on 
inflation retail. 

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Inventories are recovering 
meaning stores now have more 

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stuff to sell which again lowers
inflation. 

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The labor market demand is 
actually stabilizing, it's not 

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skyrocketing anymore. 
This is another positive 

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development in terms of lowering
inflation and the labor force 

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participation rate is starting 
to recover which again is a very

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good thing for the economy. 
Another graph that we can look 

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at is the economist forecasts of
inflation over the next two 

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years. 
They break it down into these 

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different colors. 
That mean, different things that

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are causing Inflation, you can 
see the mustard. 

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One here is Supply, constrained 
durable goods and that one has 

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really spiked inflation and they
see that one actually minimizing

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over the next year. 
It'll decline pretty steadily. 

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Then we have other Goods, which 
is also contributing to 

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inflation. 
That's supposed to go down 

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naturally, as well. 
So a couple of the biggest 

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causes of inflation are actually
supposed to be transitory. 

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They're supposed actually 
decline over the next year, even

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with the FED not raising 
interest rates. 

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Rates. 
And that makes the situation a 

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lot easier for the Fed. 
So, really, this comes down to a

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game of probabilities. 
There is a chance we will go 

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into recession because of policy
error because we raise interest 

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rates too fast or not enough to 
handle inflation. 

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If that happens, we go into 
recession and the market may not

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like that but there's also a 
percent chance that we don't go 

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into recession. 
Now, luckily for me, the way 

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that I invest either of those 
outcomes is. 

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Ok, I invest in every single 
company looking historically. 

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Berkeley at how they do during 
recessions and trying to do 

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analysis on. 
If these companies will hold 

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their own during recession, and 
I believe that every company in 

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my portfolio Will Survive a 
recession. 

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Now, having said that all the 
talk about recession and all the

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predictions do have a side 
effect of causing investors 

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become increasingly emotional 
and increasingly fearful. 

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And I can see this happen all 
over online. 

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I see so many investors, 
becoming fearful and changing 

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their entire stance on investing
one video. 

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That I remember watching a few 
months back, this was three 

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months ago. 
December 13th Was Won by chicken

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genius. 
Singapore. 

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This is one titled. 
Quit your job. 

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That's the name of this video. 
Let me go ahead and just play a 

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little bit of this. 
Hello, friends. 

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Took me one minute to make 
hundred and six thousand four 

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hundred dollars. 
This covers my entire year's 

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expenses. 
Is he just said that this took 

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him one minute to make a hundred
and six thousand dollars in this

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covers his entire year of 
expenditure. 

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Sit, that's the claim. 
This took him one minute. 

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He made a hundred six thousand 
dollars and a one-year of 

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expenses is covered. 
Hence the title quit, your job, 

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call those my entire year's 
expenses is super life-changing 

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and in Sharing what I do, 
hopefully, it changes yours. 

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I'm not asking you to quit your 
job and work is good, but at 

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least be happy working in this 
video again because I do what I 

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preach. 
But please note it may look 

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difficult. 
But I assure Assure you. 

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My donkey can do this with his 
eyes closed. 

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All I did was by January 20, 23 
roughly a year from now, if 

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Tesla stock drops below 1000, 
I'll buy it means by January 20 

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23. 
If Tesla's stock is $900, I will

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need to buy at 1000. 
I simply wrote a guarantee, so I

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got paid for it. 
That's all I did. 

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He wrote a guarantee for Tesla. 
Now the guarantee was that Tesla

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would stay at a certain stock 
price by 2023 and by writing 

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that guarantee of that stock 
price he's compensated by one 

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hundred and six thousand four 
hundred dollars that he gets 

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paid an upfront credit that's 
how he's saying he made a 

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hundred six thousand dollars in 
one minute. 

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Now again this is December 13th 
of last year just three months 

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ago and he goes on to explain 
how risk-free this strategy is 

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is quite stupid. 
If testosterone drops with $900,

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Hours. 
Here's the Met I'm still in 

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profit and if there's a stock 
drops to $800 steering profit 

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$750. 
I'm still in profit. 

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Let's say it drops to $600. 
I'll sell another years 

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guarantee and I'm break even and
this point it becomes stupid to 

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us. 
If this is risky, in fact, I 

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think whatever I do, this is the
safest strategy. 

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How here is he explained to me? 
He says it's stupid to ask how 

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this is risky. 
In fact, if it is risky explain 

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to him, he'll this was the 
attitude. 

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Just three months ago that you 
could basically have hundreds of

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thousands of dollars of risk 
free money. 

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Now of course markets can change
very quickly. 

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From that video just 
year-to-date the S&P 500 is 

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down, eleven point five seven 
percent, the QQQ is hit, even 

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harder it's down. 19% year to 
date and Tesla, what you 

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guaranteed, the price of is 
already down 34 percent to seven

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hundred and ninety five dollars.
Now, since that video, 3 months 

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back of quitting your job and 
having risk free money. 

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I've noticed a change in tone 
and his videos. 

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The most. 
Recent one is, I believe a 

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recession is Nair, has flames in
the background, doesn't look So 

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Rosie anymore and just recently 
a couple days ago he came out 

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with a video called I'm selling 
frowny face. 

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And in that video he highlights 
what he's selling, he's selling 

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out of pound here at a fifty one
thousand dollar loss and he's 

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selling out of that same Tesla 
position that same Tesla 

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guarantee at a forty nine 
thousand, six hundred and ninety

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Eight dollar loss. 
Now, when you sell out of this 

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early, the premium that you are 
paid up front that one hundred 

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and six thousand dollars he was 
paid. 

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You also lose that He's out that
one hundred and six thousand 

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dollars. 
It was basically risk free money

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on top of losing an additional 
forty. 

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Nine thousand six hundred 
ninety-eight dollars in. 

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This was just three months ago, 
it seems like things can change 

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so quickly, one moment, 
everything is easy. 

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Money is easy to come by money, 
seems risk-free. 

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And the next moment we're 
selling out of fifty thousand 

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dollar loss now, I'm not trying 
to single out chicken genius, 

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but I think it's a good example 
of how quickly things can 

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change. 
One moment we have something 

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that seems like a sure plan. 
Ask free. 

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And the next moment, it becomes 
very difficult when the market 

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takes a turn. 
This is why sticking to a 

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well-thought-out, methodically 
driven plan is very important 

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investing. 
And one of the key things that I

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think separates amateur 
investors and new investors from

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professionals, and the best 
investors in the world is 

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discipline. 
I think this is the key element 

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that separates the two groups. 
Warren Buffett. 

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Defines this level of discipline
is having emotional separation 

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from your Investments. 
Keeping a level head. 

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Don't need You don't need a lot 
of brains in this business. 

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I mean, I've always said if you 
got an IQ of 160 give away 30 

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points or somebody else, cause 
you don't need it Investments. 

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What you do need is emotional 
stability, you have to, you have

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to be able to think 
independently. 

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And they have to be, you have to
be, when you come to a 

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conclusion, you have to really 
not care what other people say, 

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and just follow the facts and 
follow your reasoning. 

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And, and that's, that's tough 
for a lot of people. 

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At that part, I think I was just
lucky with, I was born that way.

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This is what Warren Buffett 
refers to as as one of the 

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Disadvantages. 
He has as an investor as being 

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emotionally detached from your 
investments in this is something

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in common with every great 
investor. 

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Think about this, for a minute, 
you can name off every single 

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great investor and no matter 
what strategy they pursue. 

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If they're a great investor, 
they have a high amount of 

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discipline. 
You can take Warren Buffett as 

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an example. 
You can take Sir, John Templeton

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one of the best investors of the
past hundred years. 

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He's extremely disciplined. 
He says, that's one of his best.

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Heuristics, you can look at Nick
sleep and Zakaria and their fund

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that they ran where they 
invested in three companies 

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Berkshire, Costco, and Amazon, 
and they made Market beating 

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returns. 
They attribute part of that to 

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not getting distracted by the 
market and the constant news 

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they remained disciplined in 
their investing strategy. 

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You can look at Michael burry 
he's always looking for Pure 

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value with his Investments and 
he doesn't make decisions 

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emotionally you can go across 
the board to any great investor 

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whether or not you're doing. 
Analysis or growth, investing 

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whether you're doing, momentum, 
investing or technical analysis,

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having discipline is key. 
And, in my opinion, no matter 

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how good you get at this stuff, 
no matter how good you are at 

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00:16:27,300 --> 00:16:30,100
momentum investing, or 
fundamental analysis or value 

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investing. 
Or even if you're just ETF 

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dollar cost averaging, you're 
not going to have good returns 

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if you lack discipline if your 
portfolio is driven by emotions.

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So, I may not be the best 
investor in the world, or even 

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the best stock picker, I'm sure 
there's better. 

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Doc, Pickers are investors out 
there than me. 

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But one thing that I do plan on 
continuing to have with my 

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investment strategy, is a high 
amount of discipline. 

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I am not going to let emotions 
and fairs change. 

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My investment strategy. 
I'm going to continue to buy and

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dollar cost average into 
high-quality compounding 

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companies that I think will 
offer significant value for the 

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future. 
And I look at these type of dips

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in the market as buying 
opportunities not issues to be 

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concerned about, I think, if you
have this type of attitude, 

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you'll have much better returns.
So that's my thoughts today. 

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I hope you enjoyed the episode 
and if you want to follow along,

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00:17:19,200 --> 00:17:21,300
I'll have more out this week so 
subscribe and you can follow 

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00:17:21,300 --> 00:17:24,200
along for free other than that. 
I'll see you in the next one.