1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:02,680 Today on the Joseph Carlson Show, My Portfolio reached an 2 00:00:02,680 --> 00:00:05,440 all new high and the stock market reached an all new high. 3 00:00:05,440 --> 00:00:08,000 We have lots of people excited about the market reaching a new 4 00:00:08,000 --> 00:00:09,920 high. We have Jeremy Siegel calling in 5 00:00:10,120 --> 00:00:13,200 expressing his excitement for the Fed lowering interest rates 6 00:00:13,200 --> 00:00:15,880 by 50 basis points. We're going to be looking at why 7 00:00:15,880 --> 00:00:18,800 he thinks this is such a good decision from the Fed. 8 00:00:18,840 --> 00:00:22,160 We also have news that Amazon is introducing an AI bot for their 9 00:00:22,160 --> 00:00:24,720 third party sellers. Olive Garden just reported their 10 00:00:24,720 --> 00:00:26,560 earnings and it was a huge recovery. 11 00:00:26,680 --> 00:00:30,120 The stock price is jumping and Walmart is taking big steps to 12 00:00:30,120 --> 00:00:33,280 battle credit card networks like Visa MasterCard. 13 00:00:33,640 --> 00:00:36,160 We'll be taking a look at what they're doing with these instant 14 00:00:36,160 --> 00:00:38,720 bank payments and how it may affect these credit card 15 00:00:38,720 --> 00:00:40,040 companies. And then, of course, we're 16 00:00:40,040 --> 00:00:42,200 getting to the weekend. So it's time to check up on 17 00:00:42,200 --> 00:00:44,680 financial TikTok. This one is actually financial 18 00:00:44,680 --> 00:00:47,840 rails, but it's very similar. This individual shares how he 19 00:00:47,840 --> 00:00:51,600 manages to have multiple jobs at the same time that are all high 20 00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:54,160 paying and he built the business doing so. 21 00:00:54,440 --> 00:00:57,040 We'll be taking a look at his advice in this episode. 22 00:00:57,040 --> 00:00:58,640 Now let's go to move on to the main story. 23 00:00:58,640 --> 00:01:01,720 The market is reaching an all time time high and My Portfolio 24 00:01:01,720 --> 00:01:03,840 likewise has reached an all time high. 25 00:01:04,120 --> 00:01:08,040 On the day. We now have $271,000 in gains, 26 00:01:08,040 --> 00:01:11,040 which is incredible. Just today the portfolio is up 27 00:01:11,040 --> 00:01:16,400 1.63%, which is around $12,000. So it's a big day for the 28 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:18,520 market. It's a big day likely for your 29 00:01:18,520 --> 00:01:21,200 portfolio. Hopefully you've stayed invested 30 00:01:21,200 --> 00:01:23,440 in the market. Hopefully you've ignored all the 31 00:01:23,440 --> 00:01:25,720 bears trying to scare you out of the market. 32 00:01:25,720 --> 00:01:29,200 In many ways, today's a day that you can celebrate as investors. 33 00:01:29,200 --> 00:01:30,720 I think it's good to have time periods. 34 00:01:31,080 --> 00:01:33,760 You're just happy about what's going on with your portfolios. 35 00:01:34,080 --> 00:01:36,640 Companies are growing their earnings, companies are gaining 36 00:01:36,640 --> 00:01:39,320 value, and the market is rewarding investors taking on 37 00:01:39,320 --> 00:01:41,280 this risk. I, for one, am excited about 38 00:01:41,280 --> 00:01:43,040 what's going on. I'm excited about what's 39 00:01:43,040 --> 00:01:46,200 happening with my companies. The biggest contributors to My 40 00:01:46,200 --> 00:01:49,520 Portfolio this year have come from three different 41 00:01:49,520 --> 00:01:51,680 investments. The first one is in the 42 00:01:51,680 --> 00:01:54,920 restaurant category which is Texas Roadhouse. 43 00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:58,400 My total gains in Texas Roadhouse are $38,000, but if I 44 00:01:58,400 --> 00:02:01,480 filter that just by this year, we can click on the year to date 45 00:02:01,480 --> 00:02:04,960 and see that just this year it's up $21,000. 46 00:02:05,280 --> 00:02:08,680 That is a huge gain for a single year in a company like this. 47 00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:11,640 My next biggest 1 is in the consumer category, and of course 48 00:02:11,640 --> 00:02:13,880 we have the rocket ship which is Costco. 49 00:02:13,880 --> 00:02:18,320 Overall a $43,000 gain. When I filter just by the year 50 00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:23,520 to date, Costco has gone up $21,000, matching Texas House's 51 00:02:23,520 --> 00:02:25,480 gains. If we look at 3rd place, it's in 52 00:02:25,480 --> 00:02:28,320 the financial category. We have S&P Global. 53 00:02:28,320 --> 00:02:31,600 Overall, it's up $33,000. If we filter by the year to 54 00:02:31,600 --> 00:02:35,000 date, it's up $18,000. This has been another great 55 00:02:35,000 --> 00:02:36,760 performer. So those are the companies that 56 00:02:36,760 --> 00:02:39,440 have contributed the most to My Portfolio this year. 57 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:42,120 Now, if I look at the worst performing holdings in My 58 00:02:42,120 --> 00:02:45,440 Portfolio this year, I can also outline the top three. 59 00:02:45,440 --> 00:02:47,680 The worst one so far this year is Salesforce. 60 00:02:47,680 --> 00:02:50,920 It's down $2000. This is the only company that 61 00:02:50,920 --> 00:02:53,400 I'm in the red. It's the only company I hold 62 00:02:53,400 --> 00:02:55,960 that's lost money this year. Next up, we have VICI. 63 00:02:56,040 --> 00:02:58,880 Overall, Vici's in the green by around $12,000. 64 00:02:58,880 --> 00:03:01,640 So it's been a good holding over the years, but year to date, it 65 00:03:01,640 --> 00:03:03,320 just hasn't kept up with the market. 66 00:03:03,480 --> 00:03:07,640 If I filter by just this year, it's only up $500. 67 00:03:08,000 --> 00:03:09,880 And then the third worst performing position in My 68 00:03:09,880 --> 00:03:14,080 Portfolio is Canadian Pacific. It's up 4500 overall. 69 00:03:14,120 --> 00:03:17,680 If I filter it by just this year, the company is up 3600 70 00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:19,840 overall. Again, I can't complain and I'm 71 00:03:19,840 --> 00:03:22,360 very excited about what's going on with my companies. 72 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:25,280 I feel like they they've been performing to my expectations 73 00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:28,080 and in some cases they've been pleasantly surprising me, 74 00:03:28,080 --> 00:03:31,320 performing better than I expect. Now you might say, hey Joseph, 75 00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:33,920 you're excited. You said you're not supposed to 76 00:03:33,920 --> 00:03:35,520 get excited when the market goes up. 77 00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:38,640 And that's true in my own investing philosophy where I go 78 00:03:38,640 --> 00:03:41,880 over stock selection and the temperament in the portfolio 79 00:03:41,880 --> 00:03:44,120 management to be a great investor. 80 00:03:44,240 --> 00:03:46,560 The first thing I outline from investors that have good 81 00:03:46,560 --> 00:03:50,080 temperament is they don't get excited when the market goes up. 82 00:03:50,080 --> 00:03:52,400 And here I am, excited and celebrating that the market's 83 00:03:52,400 --> 00:03:54,480 going up. Maybe this needs a little bit 84 00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:57,520 more clarification. When I say don't get excited 85 00:03:57,520 --> 00:03:59,680 that the market's going up, I don't mean that you need to 86 00:03:59,680 --> 00:04:02,360 suppress all joy and emotion when investing. 87 00:04:02,600 --> 00:04:05,200 I think it's good to be happy about things, to celebrate 88 00:04:05,200 --> 00:04:08,480 landmarks, to be excited when your portfolio's making gains. 89 00:04:08,480 --> 00:04:11,800 Where I draw the line in terms of investing is acting 90 00:04:11,880 --> 00:04:16,600 excitedly, acting impulsively, piling more money into top 91 00:04:16,600 --> 00:04:19,360 performing positions by chasing gains. 92 00:04:19,480 --> 00:04:23,520 When you translate being excited into acting excited, you start 93 00:04:23,520 --> 00:04:26,640 to make dumb decisions, and I think it's time to be careful 94 00:04:26,640 --> 00:04:30,600 that we don't use the exuberance in the market and translate that 95 00:04:30,640 --> 00:04:32,880 into greed. It's OK to highlight companies 96 00:04:32,880 --> 00:04:35,800 that are doing really well, but in some cases that can translate 97 00:04:35,800 --> 00:04:39,080 directly into temptation, into pushing all your money further 98 00:04:39,080 --> 00:04:40,760 and further into these companies. 99 00:04:41,040 --> 00:04:43,560 And I don't believe that's the best investment strategy. 100 00:04:43,640 --> 00:04:45,520 Rather, we should take a disciplined approach. 101 00:04:45,520 --> 00:04:48,040 We should look at the companies based on their fundamentals and 102 00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:50,400 their valuations. We should continually look to 103 00:04:50,400 --> 00:04:52,640 invest in the ones that we believe have the best risk and 104 00:04:52,640 --> 00:04:55,560 reward. In this case, in My Portfolio, I 105 00:04:55,560 --> 00:04:58,480 still think that Salesforce is one of the best risk and rewards 106 00:04:58,640 --> 00:05:01,640 based on the valuation and growth potential, even though 107 00:05:01,640 --> 00:05:04,280 it's the one that has performed the worst year to date. 108 00:05:04,360 --> 00:05:08,080 So when I say don't get excited when the market goes up, I don't 109 00:05:08,080 --> 00:05:10,160 mean you always have to be somber. 110 00:05:10,200 --> 00:05:12,920 I don't mean you always have to have a scowled look on your 111 00:05:12,920 --> 00:05:14,880 face. I'm not suggesting we all be 112 00:05:14,880 --> 00:05:17,960 like Gurney and Dune. I am smiling. 113 00:05:19,160 --> 00:05:21,720 It's OK to smile. Being happy about your returns 114 00:05:21,720 --> 00:05:23,280 is not going to make you a bad investor. 115 00:05:23,320 --> 00:05:25,960 Hubris and emotionally driven decisions are what cause 116 00:05:25,960 --> 00:05:28,400 investors to fail. So I am pleased with the way 117 00:05:28,400 --> 00:05:30,640 things are going today. And if you've been investing 118 00:05:30,640 --> 00:05:33,440 well, you should be too. If we look at what's driving the 119 00:05:33,440 --> 00:05:36,320 market today, of course it was the rate cuts that happened 120 00:05:36,320 --> 00:05:38,080 yesterday. That's really the one major 121 00:05:38,080 --> 00:05:40,720 piece of news that we can attribute this large rally to. 122 00:05:41,160 --> 00:05:44,560 Now there is some confusion. The rate cuts happened during 123 00:05:44,560 --> 00:05:49,200 market trading yesterday and the market ended in the red and then 124 00:05:49,200 --> 00:05:52,120 it surged up a day after. It's a little confusing when the 125 00:05:52,120 --> 00:05:54,720 market decides to trade down the day that they announced the big 126 00:05:54,720 --> 00:05:57,800 rate cuts, but then trade up suddenly the next day. 127 00:05:57,960 --> 00:06:00,440 And this goes into all the different driving factors of the 128 00:06:00,440 --> 00:06:03,760 market in the short term. There's a lot of things going on 129 00:06:03,760 --> 00:06:06,120 behind the scenes. There's some analysts that have 130 00:06:06,120 --> 00:06:09,120 looked at this and they've tried to determine why the market went 131 00:06:09,120 --> 00:06:12,560 down yesterday and is up today after closing lower yesterday. 132 00:06:12,560 --> 00:06:15,520 The stock market suddenly loves the Federal Reserve's half point 133 00:06:15,520 --> 00:06:17,720 rate cut. It may say more about trading 134 00:06:17,720 --> 00:06:21,440 under Fed Chair Jerome than anything about monetary policy. 135 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:23,720 The stock market initially popped following yesterday's 136 00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:26,280 rate decision before wild trading took hold. 137 00:06:26,280 --> 00:06:30,040 The S&P 500 repeatedly pressed against its highs before pulling 138 00:06:30,040 --> 00:06:34,040 back and finishing the day down. So there is a lot of aggressive 139 00:06:34,040 --> 00:06:37,240 trading going on Yesterday, Charlie Ashley, a portfolio 140 00:06:37,240 --> 00:06:40,320 manager at Catalyst Fund, said. Quote, the moves in equities and 141 00:06:40,320 --> 00:06:42,640 Treasuries right after the announcement indicate that the 142 00:06:42,640 --> 00:06:44,920 market is concerned about the economy deteriorating. 143 00:06:45,240 --> 00:06:47,200 But today it looks like it's a different story. 144 00:06:47,720 --> 00:06:51,000 The markets actions immediately after the Fed announcement tend 145 00:06:51,000 --> 00:06:54,080 to be erratic and irrational. Another analyst wrote that on 146 00:06:54,080 --> 00:06:56,840 Fed days under PAL there have been clear negative bias for 147 00:06:56,840 --> 00:06:59,880 equities in the final hours of trading, which is again on 148 00:06:59,880 --> 00:07:02,520 display yesterday. The truth is that this is all 149 00:07:02,520 --> 00:07:06,080 conjecture, opinion, people throwing out their thoughts. 150 00:07:06,440 --> 00:07:08,520 The real truth of the matter is we don't know. 151 00:07:08,520 --> 00:07:11,880 We don't know why the market ended the day yesterday in the 152 00:07:11,880 --> 00:07:15,360 red and is in the green today. Like I've said repeatedly, 153 00:07:15,600 --> 00:07:18,640 overall interest rates going down is mathematically 154 00:07:18,640 --> 00:07:22,040 beneficial for stocks. Every investment has a relative 155 00:07:22,040 --> 00:07:24,200 value based on other opportunities. 156 00:07:24,480 --> 00:07:28,200 Investing is not in a vacuum. Equities are not the only thing 157 00:07:28,200 --> 00:07:31,640 that you can buy as an investor. When interest rates go down, it 158 00:07:31,640 --> 00:07:34,880 makes other alternative investments like bonds and cash 159 00:07:35,080 --> 00:07:39,040 money market funds, CDs less attractive and stocks, 160 00:07:39,040 --> 00:07:41,240 relatively speaking, more attractive. 161 00:07:41,320 --> 00:07:43,880 So it makes sense that the market goes up after a rate cut. 162 00:07:44,120 --> 00:07:46,760 The only counter narrative is if the economy goes into a 163 00:07:46,760 --> 00:07:50,560 recession, equities take on more risks during recessions. 164 00:07:50,560 --> 00:07:53,640 So investors right now are trying to balance the risk of 165 00:07:53,640 --> 00:07:57,120 holding equities and the chance of us going into a recession. 166 00:07:57,160 --> 00:07:59,800 But lucky for us, recessions during rate cuts are not 167 00:07:59,800 --> 00:08:02,760 necessarily guaranteed. And Jeremy Siegel's an economist 168 00:08:02,760 --> 00:08:05,280 and investor that believes there's a good chance we can 169 00:08:05,280 --> 00:08:08,160 avoid a recession. This was the best news I've 170 00:08:08,160 --> 00:08:12,280 heard from the Fed in in years. And by the way, let me guarantee 171 00:08:12,280 --> 00:08:15,560 you an all time high for the stock market today. 172 00:08:15,560 --> 00:08:18,120 There's not going to be a back and forth the way there is 173 00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:22,800 yesterday. And the word recalibration is is 174 00:08:22,880 --> 00:08:26,640 extremely significant. I think what they did is look at 175 00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:30,800 they said, listen, we're 100% towards our target on 176 00:08:30,800 --> 00:08:33,240 employment. We've got that back to normal. 177 00:08:33,480 --> 00:08:37,600 We're 80 to 100% depending on what data you use on inflation. 178 00:08:37,919 --> 00:08:42,360 And we haven't moved at all until yesterday on the Fed 179 00:08:42,360 --> 00:08:45,600 funds. We say, well, you know that the 180 00:08:45,600 --> 00:08:50,160 neutral fed funds is 2.9%. And you know, why aren't we 181 00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:52,640 closer? We're now thinking about that 182 00:08:52,840 --> 00:08:56,160 gap, which is exactly what I talked about a month ago. 183 00:08:56,400 --> 00:08:59,400 Jeremy Siegel believes that this is the best news the Fed could 184 00:08:59,400 --> 00:09:02,480 deliver, that they're not worrying about the gradual 185 00:09:02,480 --> 00:09:05,200 approach of slowly lowering interest rates down to this 186 00:09:05,200 --> 00:09:07,800 target. He says mind the gap that 187 00:09:07,800 --> 00:09:10,920 there's a large gap between where we are now and neutral. 188 00:09:11,120 --> 00:09:14,000 Neutral from the Fed standpoint is 2.9 percent. 189 00:09:14,000 --> 00:09:17,280 We're currently around 4.7%. So we have a ways to go to get 190 00:09:17,280 --> 00:09:19,520 to that neutral stance. And I think he's certainly 191 00:09:19,520 --> 00:09:21,800 correct about more interest rates coming in the future. 192 00:09:21,800 --> 00:09:24,520 Now, of course, whenever the Fed is on a path of cutting interest 193 00:09:24,520 --> 00:09:27,560 rates like this, investors are not only concerned about 194 00:09:27,560 --> 00:09:30,520 combating the growth in unemployment, they're also 195 00:09:30,520 --> 00:09:32,840 concerned about reigniting inflation. 196 00:09:33,080 --> 00:09:35,480 We have a bit of shell shock from the level of inflation we 197 00:09:35,480 --> 00:09:39,040 just went through and the last thing this country needs is to 198 00:09:39,040 --> 00:09:42,320 reignite inflation again. Inflation shows any signs of 199 00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:44,800 picking up, and the Fed says we're not going to do anything 200 00:09:44,800 --> 00:09:46,600 else anymore. That's correct. 201 00:09:46,600 --> 00:09:49,280 But I don't see any sign of inflation picking up. 202 00:09:49,280 --> 00:09:54,880 I mean, I took a look at the oil markets, you know, all all those 203 00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:59,560 markets going ahead and you know this Jeff Gunlock was on right 204 00:09:59,560 --> 00:10:02,800 afterwards. He said his motto actually shows 205 00:10:02,800 --> 00:10:06,120 a year over year inflation. Next year when those shelter, 206 00:10:06,120 --> 00:10:09,720 new shelter numbers come in, it's going to fall below 2%. 207 00:10:10,200 --> 00:10:13,200 Now, I don't know if that's going to be the case, but that 208 00:10:13,200 --> 00:10:17,440 certainly is not a situation where the, you know, we're off 209 00:10:17,440 --> 00:10:20,200 to the races again. The commodity markets, those 210 00:10:20,200 --> 00:10:23,520 sensitive markets, they tell you when you're off to the races. 211 00:10:23,640 --> 00:10:28,160 They told me in 2020-2021. It's a totally different picture 212 00:10:28,160 --> 00:10:29,840 today. Cutting interest rates is 213 00:10:29,840 --> 00:10:33,440 unlikely to spur inflation once again because we're not doing 214 00:10:33,440 --> 00:10:36,560 the thing we did a couple years ago originally to cause 215 00:10:36,560 --> 00:10:38,760 inflation. Inflation wasn't just caused by 216 00:10:38,760 --> 00:10:41,960 supply chain disruptions. It was caused by record levels, 217 00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:44,840 trillions of dollars being handed out to people. 218 00:10:44,840 --> 00:10:47,120 When you create more demand through stimulus while 219 00:10:47,120 --> 00:10:50,600 simultaneously having a shutdown with supply chains, that's 220 00:10:50,600 --> 00:10:52,920 obviously going to spur a lot of inflation. 221 00:10:53,000 --> 00:10:55,640 We're not giving out record levels of stimulus anymore, and 222 00:10:55,640 --> 00:10:58,520 supply chains are back on track. Neither contributing factor that 223 00:10:58,520 --> 00:11:01,360 caused inflation originally exists today, so it's 224 00:11:01,360 --> 00:11:04,000 unnecessary for the Federal Reserve to keep their interest 225 00:11:04,000 --> 00:11:06,800 rates as high as they were when they were combating that 226 00:11:06,800 --> 00:11:08,640 inflation. Now, of course, I'm not saying 227 00:11:08,640 --> 00:11:11,080 that there's no inflation. There's always going to be a low 228 00:11:11,080 --> 00:11:14,680 amount of inflation, 2 to 3%, that's on any given year. 229 00:11:14,680 --> 00:11:17,520 And our government does that to lower the value of our 230 00:11:17,520 --> 00:11:21,040 staggering amounts of debt. So we should expect a constant 231 00:11:21,040 --> 00:11:24,720 amount of low inflation and the assets that we invest in help 232 00:11:24,720 --> 00:11:26,680 protect us against that inflation. 233 00:11:27,160 --> 00:11:30,080 But overall, I think Jeremy Siegel is correct that we're not 234 00:11:30,080 --> 00:11:32,480 facing hyperinflation. I don't think it's going to go 235 00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:35,680 back up like it was during 2020. And I think there's more reason 236 00:11:35,680 --> 00:11:39,520 to be bullish on this market. So as of right now, I'm excited, 237 00:11:39,600 --> 00:11:42,240 I'm staying invested and I'll continue to buy companies that I 238 00:11:42,240 --> 00:11:44,800 think represent good value. Now moving on, we get to the 239 00:11:44,800 --> 00:11:48,800 news that Amazon continues to roll out generative AI based 240 00:11:48,880 --> 00:11:53,120 assistance and tools for a company that's not a so-called 241 00:11:53,320 --> 00:11:55,960 AI company. Amazon really never gets grouped 242 00:11:55,960 --> 00:11:58,440 into that basket. It's usually Microsoft or 243 00:11:58,440 --> 00:12:00,880 Google. People avoid calling Amazon an 244 00:12:00,880 --> 00:12:03,840 AI company and it sure seems like Amazon's coming out with a 245 00:12:03,840 --> 00:12:06,840 lot of AI tools for a not AI company. 246 00:12:07,000 --> 00:12:09,920 This latest 1 is a project code named Amelia. 247 00:12:10,080 --> 00:12:12,640 Amazon introduces this by saying that they've been investing in 248 00:12:12,640 --> 00:12:15,640 machine learning and AI for more than 25 years. 249 00:12:15,960 --> 00:12:18,960 More recently, advancements in generative AI have made it 250 00:12:18,960 --> 00:12:22,160 possible to deliver even more innovative experiences, 251 00:12:22,480 --> 00:12:26,040 including further simplifying selling in Amazon stores while 252 00:12:26,040 --> 00:12:28,080 providing more powerful avenues for growth. 253 00:12:28,360 --> 00:12:31,560 Now again, this bot, Amelia is not a customer facing bot. 254 00:12:31,560 --> 00:12:34,920 Customers don't see it. This is only for sellers on 255 00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:37,040 Amazon. And for what I can see, it's a 256 00:12:37,040 --> 00:12:40,640 trained bot on a large language model to look at your data and 257 00:12:40,640 --> 00:12:44,040 give you specific answers to questions about your store. 258 00:12:44,360 --> 00:12:47,320 You can ask it how your sales are doing or how your products 259 00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:49,960 are doing, what your click through rates, lots of different 260 00:12:49,960 --> 00:12:52,440 things about the analytics. This tool gives sellers the 261 00:12:52,440 --> 00:12:55,640 ability to just type stuff like how's my business doing? 262 00:12:55,840 --> 00:12:59,280 And then it gives a bulleted point of the sales units sold, 263 00:12:59,320 --> 00:13:02,720 selling price, the amount of traffic, the changes month over 264 00:13:02,720 --> 00:13:05,200 month and year over year. And then it gives a plain text 265 00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:08,040 summary adding commentary to how your business is doing. 266 00:13:08,360 --> 00:13:10,960 Overall, your business is doing well with impressive growth 267 00:13:10,960 --> 00:13:13,960 across key metrics like sales unit and traffic. 268 00:13:13,960 --> 00:13:16,800 While conversion rate could be optimized, the strong momentum 269 00:13:16,800 --> 00:13:19,280 positions you well for the upcoming holiday season. 270 00:13:19,400 --> 00:13:22,120 Now, of course, this is their demo and it's in beta right now, 271 00:13:22,120 --> 00:13:26,000 but if this thing runs anywhere close to like these demos, this 272 00:13:26,000 --> 00:13:28,040 is going to be a game changer to sellers. 273 00:13:28,120 --> 00:13:31,480 Not every seller on Amazon is a data analyst that can decipher 274 00:13:31,480 --> 00:13:34,720 all the metrics and determine the biggest things to focus on, 275 00:13:34,840 --> 00:13:37,960 so having an AI bot do that for you could be invaluable. 276 00:13:37,960 --> 00:13:40,440 Now you know that I've been bullish on Amazon for a while. 277 00:13:40,440 --> 00:13:43,720 I really like the company, both from a customer perspective and 278 00:13:43,720 --> 00:13:46,880 from an investment standpoint. I still believe that Amazon is 279 00:13:46,880 --> 00:13:49,560 one of the more undervalued companies in the market based on 280 00:13:49,560 --> 00:13:52,000 my assumptions of its long term from cash flow growth and 281 00:13:52,000 --> 00:13:54,160 terminal value. So when I see news like this 282 00:13:54,160 --> 00:13:56,880 today with the growing fundamentals of Amazon, it makes 283 00:13:56,880 --> 00:13:59,680 me more happy about the company. Now we move on to a story that's 284 00:13:59,680 --> 00:14:02,760 a bit more concerning if you're invested in the payment card 285 00:14:02,760 --> 00:14:06,400 networks like a Visa MasterCard. Apparently Walmart is planning 286 00:14:06,440 --> 00:14:10,120 instant bank payments that would completely circumvent going 287 00:14:10,120 --> 00:14:12,800 through Visa MasterCard. Walmart customers will soon have 288 00:14:12,800 --> 00:14:15,640 the option to pay directly from their bank account with instant 289 00:14:15,640 --> 00:14:18,920 transfers for online purchases. The enhanced feature is a 290 00:14:18,920 --> 00:14:21,960 flashpoint in the escalating tensions between the merchants 291 00:14:22,240 --> 00:14:25,280 and the card network setting the fees for payment processing. 292 00:14:25,320 --> 00:14:29,040 So basically what they've done here is found a way to speed up 293 00:14:29,040 --> 00:14:33,000 the ACH transfer so it no longer has that two to three business 294 00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:36,280 days pending transaction. When the transaction processes 295 00:14:36,280 --> 00:14:38,800 at a real time payment, customers get immediate access 296 00:14:38,800 --> 00:14:40,280 to see that payment come through. 297 00:14:40,640 --> 00:14:43,320 So they see the payment come through and then they know how 298 00:14:43,320 --> 00:14:45,960 much money they actually have. They have no pending 299 00:14:45,960 --> 00:14:48,720 transactions. Pending transactions can make it 300 00:14:48,720 --> 00:14:51,680 so customers get their payments confused and in many cases 301 00:14:51,680 --> 00:14:54,600 overdraft their accounts. Now the big question for me when 302 00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:58,840 reading this news of trying to circumvent Visa MasterCard is 303 00:14:58,840 --> 00:15:02,280 the rewards program. Using Visa, MasterCard at 304 00:15:02,280 --> 00:15:05,640 merchants like Walmart is an essentially freeway to get 305 00:15:05,640 --> 00:15:09,840 rewards from those purchases. You get 2 to 3% back on every 306 00:15:09,840 --> 00:15:12,720 purchase. Is Walmart going to make up for 307 00:15:12,720 --> 00:15:15,520 that loss in rewards? Is Walmart going to offer a 308 00:15:15,520 --> 00:15:18,960 separate reward program now? As an investor of MasterCard, I 309 00:15:18,960 --> 00:15:21,960 think it's important to ask what the potential is for this in the 310 00:15:21,960 --> 00:15:24,560 future. If it is true that Walmart and 311 00:15:24,560 --> 00:15:27,480 other large retailers can completely surpass their 312 00:15:27,480 --> 00:15:29,680 networks, that's not good news for them. 313 00:15:29,800 --> 00:15:32,640 That's hundreds of billions of dollars of volume processed that 314 00:15:32,640 --> 00:15:34,480 MasterCard could potentially miss. 315 00:15:34,560 --> 00:15:36,880 But I think this will be much more difficult than Walmart 316 00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:38,960 expects. People really, really love their 317 00:15:38,960 --> 00:15:42,120 credit cards. It is difficult to pry a credit 318 00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:44,920 card from a user that's been using it for years. 319 00:15:45,200 --> 00:15:47,160 They want to use it on their transactions. 320 00:15:47,240 --> 00:15:49,760 They want to earn the points on the specific card that they've 321 00:15:49,760 --> 00:15:51,800 chosen. So this is some news where I put 322 00:15:51,800 --> 00:15:53,920 in the basket of keeping an eye on it. 323 00:15:54,000 --> 00:15:57,880 It is slow, progressive news that could overtime potentially 324 00:15:57,880 --> 00:15:59,800 deteriorate the mote of MasterCard. 325 00:15:59,880 --> 00:16:01,960 But as of right now, it's just a headline. 326 00:16:02,040 --> 00:16:04,440 Now, moving on, we get to the news that Darden Restaurants, 327 00:16:04,440 --> 00:16:07,400 the owner of Olive Garden, is jumping today. 328 00:16:07,400 --> 00:16:09,640 The stock is up big. In fact, if we look at it right 329 00:16:09,640 --> 00:16:14,160 now, it's up 8.83%. So a big day for this company 330 00:16:14,400 --> 00:16:16,200 after they reported their earnings. 331 00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:18,120 This is an exciting earnings for this company. 332 00:16:18,120 --> 00:16:20,080 They announced a delivery partnership with Uber 333 00:16:20,080 --> 00:16:22,280 Technologies. That's another company that I'm 334 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:25,200 rather bullish on right now. And they signaled that they're 335 00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:28,400 succeeding at attracting cash strapped consumers into their 336 00:16:28,400 --> 00:16:30,600 eateries. They say that this recovery led 337 00:16:30,600 --> 00:16:33,200 to them maintaining their full year guidance despite a 338 00:16:33,200 --> 00:16:35,440 significant drop in customers in July. 339 00:16:35,600 --> 00:16:38,680 The deal between Olive Garden and Uber also signals that the 340 00:16:38,680 --> 00:16:41,880 restaurant chain is trying to expand its reach as it battles 341 00:16:41,920 --> 00:16:44,800 the spending pull back. Now the thing that I look at 342 00:16:44,800 --> 00:16:47,640 with this is it's great to see that Darden is doing well. 343 00:16:47,880 --> 00:16:50,840 In many cases, people would look at this and they think, wow, I 344 00:16:50,840 --> 00:16:53,360 own Texas Roadhouse. Should I be concerned about 345 00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:55,280 this? A competitor is doing well 346 00:16:55,280 --> 00:16:58,160 compared to Texas Roadhouse? I don't think so. 347 00:16:58,280 --> 00:17:01,040 When I look at Darden Restaurant and I compare both the 348 00:17:01,040 --> 00:17:04,280 restaurant, the operations, the value proposition, the customer 349 00:17:04,280 --> 00:17:08,319 experience to Texas Roadhouse, I consider Texas Roadhouses as 350 00:17:08,319 --> 00:17:10,640 superior. I believe the value proposition 351 00:17:10,640 --> 00:17:13,560 is better at Texas Roadhouse. You get food that's considered 352 00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:15,880 to be higher quality, more expensive food. 353 00:17:16,079 --> 00:17:18,160 You're getting steaks instead of spaghetti. 354 00:17:18,280 --> 00:17:21,040 And typically, if you compare the dinner prices from one 355 00:17:21,040 --> 00:17:24,319 restaurant to another, you're also not paying much, if not 356 00:17:24,319 --> 00:17:28,160 anymore at Texas Roadhouse. So in the minds of consumers, I 357 00:17:28,160 --> 00:17:31,000 still believe that Texas Roadhouse maintains the best 358 00:17:31,000 --> 00:17:33,240 value proposition amongst casual restaurants. 359 00:17:33,320 --> 00:17:35,960 But either way, when I'm looking at these companies and the 360 00:17:35,960 --> 00:17:39,360 bounce back in restaurants between Chili's and Darden, I 361 00:17:39,360 --> 00:17:42,400 consider that a good thing. I think it benefits Texas 362 00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:44,600 Roadhouse. It shows that customers right 363 00:17:44,600 --> 00:17:47,840 now are willing to go out and purchase experiences. 364 00:17:48,000 --> 00:17:50,400 And I believe Texas Roadhouse will continue to carve itself 365 00:17:50,400 --> 00:17:52,840 out as one of the top restaurants that people 366 00:17:52,840 --> 00:17:55,120 frequent. Now finally, as tradition, 367 00:17:55,120 --> 00:17:58,080 typically on weekends, we look at people that are 368 00:17:58,080 --> 00:18:01,240 entrepreneurs, that are investors that have somehow 369 00:18:01,240 --> 00:18:03,880 managed to make great returns doing something. 370 00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:06,600 We're going to look at how this individual became rich so. 371 00:18:06,600 --> 00:18:09,960 Basically, I built a business using Airbnb and other people's 372 00:18:09,960 --> 00:18:14,080 properties to make money and then I got a job at Deloitte as 373 00:18:14,080 --> 00:18:16,200 an investment banker. Deloitte is a world famous 374 00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:20,920 investment banking company and I used my extra time because I 375 00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:26,200 built like a four hour workweek business to get a job 4050 sixty 376 00:18:26,200 --> 00:18:28,160 hours a week. I don't hear of many people 377 00:18:28,160 --> 00:18:31,320 running businesses that require 4 hours a week to run. 378 00:18:31,360 --> 00:18:32,840 That seems like an incredible business. 379 00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:35,720 I'd probably just invest more time into expanding that 380 00:18:35,720 --> 00:18:39,240 business if it's that efficient. You only need 4 hours a week to 381 00:18:39,240 --> 00:18:41,440 run it. Just spend more time in that 382 00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:43,080 thing. Anyway, it seems like he's not 383 00:18:43,080 --> 00:18:44,480 done here. Let's let him continue on. 384 00:18:44,720 --> 00:18:48,560 I use that 60 hours to generate money to do amazing things like 385 00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:51,840 this. And then actually what I'm doing 386 00:18:51,840 --> 00:18:55,520 at the moment is I'm getting, I'm negotiating a remote job 387 00:18:55,800 --> 00:18:58,920 with Deloitte so I can get a job at Ernst and Young and Swiss 388 00:18:58,920 --> 00:19:01,160 Bank so I can get multiple remote jobs going. 389 00:19:01,800 --> 00:19:04,920 And then I'm going to hire assistants overseas to do those 390 00:19:04,920 --> 00:19:07,320 jobs for me because I find all that stuff very complicated. 391 00:19:07,880 --> 00:19:10,880 He says he's going to use his free time after starting his 392 00:19:10,880 --> 00:19:13,720 business that requires 4 hours per week to run. 393 00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:17,360 He's going to use all the extra free time to get a job at 394 00:19:17,360 --> 00:19:21,880 Deloitte, which is one of the the big, massive BIG4 firms in 395 00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:24,720 the US. So it's a big, respectable firm. 396 00:19:24,840 --> 00:19:28,560 Getting a job there is not easy, requires intense background 397 00:19:28,560 --> 00:19:31,400 checks and extensive interviewing processes to get a 398 00:19:31,400 --> 00:19:34,520 job at that firm. But then he also says he's going 399 00:19:34,520 --> 00:19:38,040 to simultaneously interview and get a job at Ernst and Young, 400 00:19:38,600 --> 00:19:41,920 which is another one of the the BIG4 firms in the US, which 401 00:19:41,920 --> 00:19:45,400 again, requires an extensive application process, interview 402 00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:47,800 process, background checks, all of that stuff. 403 00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:50,600 Those are two of the BIG4 firms in the US. 404 00:19:50,880 --> 00:19:54,160 And then he says he's also going to get a third job at the Swiss 405 00:19:54,160 --> 00:19:56,760 bank, which is a term to refer to any of the big banks over 406 00:19:56,760 --> 00:19:59,160 there, which of course have their own extensive interview 407 00:19:59,160 --> 00:20:01,400 processes. Somehow he's going to get a job 408 00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:03,600 and get accepted at all three of these companies. 409 00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:06,120 But not only that, he says once he has the job, he's going to 410 00:20:06,120 --> 00:20:09,160 outsource it. Assistance overseas to do those 411 00:20:09,160 --> 00:20:11,560 jobs for me because I find all that stuff very complicated. 412 00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:15,320 Apparently, overseas assistants can easily do these jobs, even 413 00:20:15,320 --> 00:20:16,920 though he says that they're complicated. 414 00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:20,280 If there's any trend that really needs to die, it's the one where 415 00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:24,120 someone stands next to something that's kind of sort of 416 00:20:24,120 --> 00:20:27,720 impressive or something that's kind of expensive, and then 417 00:20:27,720 --> 00:20:31,160 rattles off a bunch of nonsense things while they're standing 418 00:20:31,160 --> 00:20:33,800 next to it. In this case, the individual is 419 00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:36,280 on a boat with three women in the background. 420 00:20:36,800 --> 00:20:38,200 That is that. That's what he's doing. 421 00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:39,920 That's so impressive. That's supposed to get you to 422 00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:42,720 buy in to what he's saying. Does he know the women? 423 00:20:42,760 --> 00:20:44,640 Who knows? Is this boat his? 424 00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:46,960 Probably not, but that's supposed to be enough to 425 00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:49,560 convince you to buy into whatever garbage he's selling. 426 00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:51,840 I think we need to do better. More people need to call this 427 00:20:51,840 --> 00:20:53,680 stuff out. More people need to mock it 428 00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:56,800 because of how ridiculous it is. And hopefully we can change this 429 00:20:56,800 --> 00:20:58,800 in the future. Hopefully we can make this type 430 00:20:58,800 --> 00:21:01,240 of nonsense less prevalent now. That's going to be it for this 431 00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:02,960 episode. I hope you enjoyed and I'll see 432 00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:03,720 you in the next one.