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Welcome back everyone. 
In this episode of the drills 

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will Carlson show. 
We have two companies that I'm 

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going to be going over there. 
Dividend-paying companies and 

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they're ones that I think are 
particularly goodbyes in this 

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market. 
Now, I also have some other news

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we're going to be getting to 
Jeremy. 

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Siegel is holding strong to the 
FED pivot. 

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I want to hear him explain, why 
he thinks the FED is going to 

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Pivot. 
We also have some more weird and

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disturbing news that faces of 
celebrities are being deep 

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faked, and they're being put on 
different actors in commercials.

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Now, I on to go through and give
my reaction to this and explain 

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why this is especially 
concerning. 

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So we have a lot of fun things 
to go over in this episode. 

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Let's go ahead and jump in with 
my portfolio. 

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Will start off with a quick 
portfolio update. 

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This is the passive income 
account, it's my dividend growth

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portfolio. 
Focused on those compounding 

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companies. 
The focus here is on buying very

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high quality companies at a 
reasonable or even preferably 

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cheap price that is the perfect 
combination high quality 

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companies at a cheap price. 
Now, I've been trying to do this

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Over the past year and I think I
built up a pretty strong 

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portfolio. 
And what I want to do in this 

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episode is highlight two 
companies. 

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In particular that have held up 
really well. 

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During this downturn, one of 
them is a company that I hold in

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my portfolio and one of them is 
not. 

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Let's start off with the one 
that I currently hold. 

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It's in the real estate category
and the company's Vici, this is 

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a big holding of mine. 
In fact, it was one of my 

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largest bets last year. 
I really started piling money 

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into this company because I 
thought it was a high-quality 

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one that paid a high yield. 
I thought it had good moat. 

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I really like the leadership. 
In fact, I even interviewed the 

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CEO of the company. 
I found them to be very 

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knowledgeable about the 
business. 

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There's overall a lot of 
qualities I liked about Vici but

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even knowing this is a good 
company. 

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And even with the initial 
research I did on it, I've 

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actually been surprised by the 
relative substantial out 

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performance of this company. 
Let me give you an example here.

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Vici currently is down zero 
percent year-to-date. 

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So it's had a little bit of 
volatility and went from Dollars

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at the beginning of the year 
down to 27 all the way up to 35.

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And now it's back to $30. 
So it's basically flat on the 

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year with a little bit of 
volatility, but of course, this 

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is outperformed, the S&P 500 and
the QQQ. 

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That's pretty impressive. 
A company that can outperform 

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the major indices during a bear 
Market. 

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I think is something notable but
that's still not the most 

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impressive part of this 
performance. 

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The most impressive part is how 
good the performance of view she

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has been relative to its own 
peers. 

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Other real estate companies that
are also high quality. 

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We have realty income Court, a 
dividend investors favorite 

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that's been paying dividends for
decades. 

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This company is currently down 
17 percent this year, we have 

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Simon Property the mall. 
Read this company's down 36 

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percent. 
Year-to-date, we have medical 

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properties, trust a hospital 
Reit. 

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This one is currently down, 56 
percent. 

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Year-to-date, we have digital 
Realty. 

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This one is a data center read. 
This one's down 44 percent. 

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Year-to-date we have American 
Tower Corp. 

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This is a big Telecom read. 
This one is currently down 35 

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percent. 
Year-to-date in fact even if we 

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just bring up v&q, the entire 
real estate index, it's down 32 

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percent year-to-date lower than 
the S&P 500 and the QQQ. 

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So real estate as a whole is 
performing worse than the actual

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market and VG currently isn't 
down at all and I find this 

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interesting why is Vici holding 
up? 

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So well looking back at the 
management of the company. 

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It turns out that they made some
pretty good decisions early on 

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with protecting Vici against 
Inflation and Ed Pitonyak. 

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Highlighted that in his 
interview with me back in 

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December of last year we do 
somewhat uniquely as a cripple. 

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Every we do have a critical mass
of our rent, roll with Lisa's 

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that involve inflation 
protection for us. 

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As a landlord, notice how you 
uses the word uniquely, not 

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every single re is doing this, 
in fact, most streets aren't 

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doing this. 
They aren't really prepared for 

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record. 
High inflation, interest rates 

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going up cost of capital right. 
I think most of them made no 

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preparation beforehand and 
that's why VG's unique. 

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So as an example with Caesars, 
we have to Lisa's, we have, what

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we call, our Las Vegas Master 
Lease and then our regional 

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property Master Lease, our Las 
Vegas Master. 

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Lease has a, what we call a CPI 
kicker in that the rent 

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escalates every year at a 
minimum of 2 percent or CPI, 

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okay? 
Right. 

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And the hire of I should say. 
So are our rent on our Las Vegas

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Master Lease actually escalated 
nearly 5%. 

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Oh well as effective as of 
November 1st, next year our 

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regional Master Lease will will 
go to the higher of 1.5% or CPI 

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uncapped. 
So if you take 40% of our rent 

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roll we have uncapped inflation 
protection built into Lisa's 

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that is Very unique among triple
never eats only w.p. 

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Carey, that's part of multiple 
that rates really has that kind 

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of inflation protection and no 
Ed mentions that w.p. 

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Carey is the only other read to 
have some level of inflation 

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protection. 
When we bring up this stock, 

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w.p. 
Carey, you can see that it is 

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performing much better than 
other comparable REITs. 

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And again, this is probably 
because of their inflation 

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protection. 
This is a very present thing for

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management to think of ahead of 
time. 

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Remember that a couple years 
ago, inflation protection was 

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kind of like Maybe good to have,
but not really necessary. 

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A few years ago, central banks 
were worried about deflation 

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inflation wasn't even something 
in their minds. 

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It wasn't even something really 
conceivable but the management 

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of Vici were very wise and 
protecting a lot of the rents of

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their company from inflation. 
When we look at the actual 

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breakdown of inflation 
protection right now. 47 percent

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of each. 
He's portfolio is inflation 

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protected. 
And then moving on to 2023, they

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estimate that I'll move on to 
53%. 

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So if inflation does Persist a 
greater portion of VG's 

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portfolio actually becomes 
inflation-protected overtime 

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going on to twenty twenty six, 
twenty thirty two, and all the 

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way into 2035. 
By that point, ninety six 

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percent of the portfolio is 
inflation protected. 

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But the most important thing for
investors right now, in this 

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decade is that 47% currently is 
and that's 47 percent more than 

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most real estate. 
Companies, most of them do not 

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have any meaningful inflation 
protection and that's crushing. 

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Them right now, here's another 
table that I think better 

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illustrates how this actually 
affects Vici off to the left. 

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We have a column of CPI growth. 
This is inflation. 

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So it gives us a range of 
hypothetical inflation. 

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Then off to the right, we have 
V, TS FF, o growth ffo growth is

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basically like their free cash 
flow. 

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That is their funds that they 
get from their operations of 

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their company. 
As you can see the lower the 

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inflation, the lower VG's rents.
So the rents actually adjust to 

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inflation. 
It's not Perfect one to one but 

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it's enough to really help 
investors out. 

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For example, even if inflation 
stayed as high as 7.5% VG's fo 

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growth goes from 2.6 percent all
the way up to six point one. 

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So they offset the effects of 
inflation, to a huge extent. 

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And the problem with most real 
estate companies right now, is 

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they simply do not have this 
ability. 

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So really when I try to dig down
and find out the reason this 

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company is performing so much 
better relative to the broader 

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market and Even other real 
estate companies. 

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I really think it's that rent 
escalation. 

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I think that's the key thing 
that Vici did that in hindsight 

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was very wise to do. 
And a lot of other real estate 

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companies. 
They're simply not in the same 

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situation and they can't go back
in time and change the contracts

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that they've made. 
In my opinion, the reason I 

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highlight this company is one of
the best dividend companies is. 

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I think this relative 
outperformance will continue 

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into the future. 
Now, I want to highlight another

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dividend-paying company that I 
believe will outperform that I 

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don't currently own. 
The company's UnitedHealth Group

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it's a health insurance company.
When I look at the compound or 

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checklist and I try to see what 
companies really fit in to all 

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of this, very strict criteria, 
United Healthcare is one of the 

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ones that I really think checks 
all of the boxes strong 

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franchise durability does this 
company have brand power 

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UnitedHealth Group is one of the
most recognized health insurance

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brands in the world. 
So in terms of brand value, it 

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probably has the most brand 
value in its category that it 

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competes in. 
Number two, does a company earn 

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high returns on Capital employed
Returns on Capital employed are 

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one of the key metrics that 
investors like Carrie Smith. 

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Look at it basically means how 
effective this company is. 

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When it reinvest back into its 
business, in this case, 

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UnitedHealth Group gets around 
18% Roc, e, and this has been 

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very consistent for the past 
decade, almost 17 to 18% year 

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after year. 
After year, this isn't the 

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highest are oce in the market. 
So there's companies that have 

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higher Returns on Capital 
employed, but there's very few 

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Companies that have this level 
of consistency and 18% is high 

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enough. 
It's good enough. 

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Moving on to number three, does 
UnitedHealth Group have 

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recurring Revenue? 
Do they make money from a large 

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group of people from repeatable 
and predictable transactions. 

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The answer to this question is 
obviously yes. 

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UnitedHealth Group has millions 
of customers repeatedly, every 

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month, paying them money for 
health insurance. 

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This about his recurring as it 
can get. 

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This may as well be a massive 
subscription company for 

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something that's session. 
Airy you can see the growth over

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time, it's almost perfectly 
consistent. 

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The only variance is actually 
when they've done deals and 

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bought companies are sold 
companies. 

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It's not really what their Core 
Business. 

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Number four days, UnitedHealth 
Group have minimal financial 

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leverage, this is also easy to 
look at. 

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We can bring up the balance 
sheet of the company. 

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Basically all we're trying to 
find out here, is this company 

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going to go bankrupt? 
If we get into a recession, we 

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don't want over lever companies.
In this case, UnitedHealth Group

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has around 17 billion dollars of
net debt. 

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Last year, they Had ibadah of 26
billion. 

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So another not over levered. 
They could pay off all of their 

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outstanding debt with their cash
and less than one year's worth 

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of income. 
Number five is the company low 

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cyclicality, this one's a little
bit more tricky to determine 

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basically what we're trying to 
do is find companies where their

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overall economics of their 
business are somewhat 

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predictable. 
Generally speaking, the less 

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volatile and more predictable. 
The earnings per share are the 

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lower cyclic ality the business.
In this case we have a little 

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bit of cyclic ality and 2007, 
the earnings dropped around 25% 

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but that's about in range with 
the rest of the broader markets.

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I think this is a lower 
cyclicality company and then 

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finally number six does the 
company return Capital? 

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Do they pay a dividend or do 
they do Buybacks in terms of 

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dividend payments? 
This company is one of the best 

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and most reliable. 
Their dividend has literally 

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only gone up and they've 
compounded it over the past 10 

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years at 22%. 
That is very fast dividend 

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growth, that is amongst the top 
tear even last year. 

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They raised their dividend 14% 
And they're doing that while 

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maintaining a low payout ratio 
of 30 percent. 

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So they have a lot of 
flexibility to be able to raise 

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their dividend further in the 
future. 

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They're not only paying a 
dividend. 

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They're also returning Capital 
through share BuyBacks. 

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They only seem to buy back a 
little bit but it's still 

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meaningful last year they bought
back Point, 85 percent of their 

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shares outstanding. 
So this company is a compounder 

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it checks all of the boxes here 
in terms of valuation. 

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I also think even despite its 
eight percent rise while we have

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addict. 
Lining Market. 

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I still think this company is 
undervalued. 

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They've been growing their 
earnings 18% for the past five 

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years, even last year, they grew
at 19 percent. 

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So they have very fast earnings 
growth and with return on 

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Capital employed of 18. 
This company should be trading 

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around a 27 PE ratio. 
So I think that UnitedHealth 

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Group overall is a high-quality 
compounding company that even 

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despite its good run-up. 
I think it's relatively 

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underpriced. 
Now, having said that I don't 

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currently on the company but it 
is one that I'd be willing to 

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invest in the future. 
Now, currently with my 

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Portfolio. 
I continue to reinvest in the 

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companies that I have over the 
past couple of months I've 

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basically taken it easy. 
Continue the dollar cost average

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00:12:07,500 --> 00:12:11,200
in every single week with new 
deposits and I just sit back and

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00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:14,000
reinvest my dividends beat. 
You just paid almost a five 

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00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:16,800
hundred dollar dividend. 
I get them from Nike and Pepsi 

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00:12:16,800 --> 00:12:19,200
and dominoes, and tiro price and
seh. 

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00:12:19,200 --> 00:12:22,700
Di, and Texas Roadhouse is now 
paying a decent sized dividend. 

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00:12:22,900 --> 00:12:26,000
It's $183 from that company, but
so on and so forth. 

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All of this money gets paid to 
me. 

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I reinvest it and the loop 
continues Even if this bear 

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market last for another six 
months, that's just another six 

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months, I'll be able to use all 
that dividend income to 

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compound. 
My share count, grow my passive 

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income and grow my stake in 
these companies. 

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So, I'm completely fine waiting 
this out. 

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But there is someone else that 
thinks this bear Market may end 

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sooner. 
His name's Jeremy Siegel and 

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he's been one of the few bullish
ones predicting that the FED is 

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going to Pivot far sooner than 
most people are predicting. 

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Here is his latest comments on 
it. 

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But as a statement by the FED 
that they say, The progress, 

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right? 
And at some point can afford to 

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pause and see if that progress 
really makes it that's, that's, 

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that's what the market is. 
Looking for this, the, the what 

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scares the market, the most is 
the Fed is going to stay this 

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tight through 2023. 
Which I absolutely think would 

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be really disastrous disagree 
with Larry that we have to be as

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high as he thinks we have to get
because I really think that That

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tremendous progress has already 
been made against inflation and 

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we're way on the downside even 
though the statistics won't show

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it for for quite a while. 
So, I think that the FED is, you

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know, I wouldn't be surprising 
to you do percent fed funds rate

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by the end of 2020 32 percent by
the end of next year, is way 

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ahead of the feds predictions. 
They're putting that all the way

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out to 2026 and he's saying by 
2023. 

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So Jeremy Siegel has a very 
contrarian view here that 

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inflation is going to. 
Down much sooner than expected. 

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If that were to be the case, it 
would change the equity markets 

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to a huge extent. 
We've only had six months of 

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tightening started in March at 
all of a sudden, because core 

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rates are not going down. 
People are saying, oh, the feds 

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00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:17,500
not working. 
It has to keep on hiking. 

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There are lots of there are long
and variable legs in it. 

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Look at the exposure money 
started in 2020, and it didn't 

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00:14:27,100 --> 00:14:28,700
influence. 
We wouldn't get a lot of 

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00:14:28,700 --> 00:14:32,300
inflation to 321 but I find 
myself agreeing with Jeremy 

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00:14:32,300 --> 00:14:34,000
Siegel here. 
I think that in general 

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00:14:34,000 --> 00:14:37,700
investors are very impatient. 
I was expecting inflation to 

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00:14:37,700 --> 00:14:40,600
come down by the end of this 
year, which I still think 

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00:14:40,600 --> 00:14:43,500
there's a chance it will. 
But it is being more stubborn. 

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It's taking longer than expected
investors. 

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00:14:46,000 --> 00:14:49,400
Want the federal funds rate to 
take action and work right away 

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00:14:49,700 --> 00:14:52,600
and Jeremy's basically saying 
it'll work it'll just take an 

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00:14:52,600 --> 00:14:55,800
extra year it'll happen in 2023.
Keep in mind all of this is 

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00:14:55,800 --> 00:14:58,100
speculation of how this will 
eventually turn out. 

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00:14:58,100 --> 00:15:01,000
Nobody really knows the answer. 
That's why it's so important to 

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00:15:01,000 --> 00:15:03,200
have a portfolio. 
That's geared towards any 

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00:15:03,200 --> 00:15:05,600
eventuality. 
Whether we have stagflation, 

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00:15:05,600 --> 00:15:07,800
High, inflation or low 
inflation. 

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00:15:07,900 --> 00:15:10,000
We need to be prepared for any 
of those outcomes. 

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00:15:10,100 --> 00:15:12,900
Now, moving on, I want to jump 
into a story that I think is 

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00:15:12,900 --> 00:15:14,800
somewhat disturbing. 
This is a new trend. 

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00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:18,000
It's been happening for a couple
years now, but with the 

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00:15:18,000 --> 00:15:21,800
Improvement in artificial 
intelligence and in technology 

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00:15:21,800 --> 00:15:25,600
and photo and video Imaging. 
Deep fakes are becoming more and

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00:15:25,600 --> 00:15:27,200
more popular from The Wall 
Street Journal. 

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00:15:27,200 --> 00:15:29,600
They say, deep fakes of 
celebrities have begun. 

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00:15:29,700 --> 00:15:33,500
Gun appearing in ads with or 
without their permission last 

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00:15:33,500 --> 00:15:35,600
year. 
A Russian Telecom company. 

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00:15:35,900 --> 00:15:39,900
Put Bruce, Willis has faced in 
an ad without his permission. 

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00:15:49,000 --> 00:15:52,600
Yeah, that's not Bruce Willis. 
That is someone else with Bruce 

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00:15:52,600 --> 00:15:55,700
Willis is face on him. 
Now, as bad as that Russian ad 

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00:15:55,700 --> 00:15:58,200
is, here's one that's far more 
disturbing. 

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00:15:58,200 --> 00:16:01,000
This is a real estate. 
Add from a real estate startup 

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00:16:01,000 --> 00:16:05,700
company hears Margot Robbie in a
bubble bath to explain basically

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00:16:08,100 --> 00:16:10,000
Oh hello, it's your favorite 
chick bro. 

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00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:12,100
Elon are disrupting bubble 
baths. 

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00:16:12,100 --> 00:16:15,400
Now in this one, the face 
Imaging doesn't look amazing. 

320
00:16:15,500 --> 00:16:18,200
The voices are so off. 
You can tell right away, it's 

321
00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:22,100
not really Elon Musk but it's 
still disturbing nonetheless. 

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00:16:22,100 --> 00:16:24,200
And again this is for a real 
estate company. 

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00:16:24,300 --> 00:16:26,700
Kind of like a reggae is 
disrupting investment startup 

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00:16:26,700 --> 00:16:29,900
bottles Breguet. 
You say, isn't that the music 

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00:16:29,900 --> 00:16:31,900
that you listen to with Joe 
Rogan smoking? 

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00:16:31,900 --> 00:16:39,200
A massive spliff it is. 
But it's So way to democratize, 

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00:16:39,200 --> 00:16:42,200
who can invest in an exciting 
new startups from the ground up,

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00:16:42,500 --> 00:16:45,500
this ad continues on for another
couple of minutes, but you get 

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00:16:45,500 --> 00:16:46,900
the point. 
Now, you can see where this 

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00:16:46,900 --> 00:16:50,900
technology might be potentially 
dangerous and problematic, it 

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00:16:50,900 --> 00:16:55,300
has an upside authorized deep. 
Fakes could allow marketers to 

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00:16:55,300 --> 00:16:58,700
feature huge stars and ads 
without requiring them to 

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00:16:58,700 --> 00:17:01,200
actually appear on set or before
cameras. 

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00:17:01,300 --> 00:17:04,200
So, basically, there's licensing
opportunities here. 

335
00:17:04,599 --> 00:17:08,200
A celebrity could just give a 
license agreement of Of 

336
00:17:08,200 --> 00:17:11,400
authorized use of a deep fake, 
make some money without actually

337
00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:13,099
having to do any additional 
work. 

338
00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:15,900
That's the upside, the downside 
is that a lot of groups are 

339
00:17:15,900 --> 00:17:17,800
going to be using this 
unauthorized. 

340
00:17:17,800 --> 00:17:21,099
Celebrities could struggle to 
contain a proliferation of 

341
00:17:21,099 --> 00:17:24,200
unauthorized digital 
reproductions of themselves and 

342
00:17:24,200 --> 00:17:27,099
the manipulation of their brand 
and reputation. 

343
00:17:27,200 --> 00:17:29,200
There's a chance that 
celebrities, or anybody that's 

344
00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:32,300
even notable, could have their 
reputation destroyed by someone,

345
00:17:32,300 --> 00:17:35,400
that's not even them. 
And that is a pretty substantial

346
00:17:35,400 --> 00:17:37,500
downside. 
In this case, I actually think 

347
00:17:37,500 --> 00:17:40,200
the Site is much greater than 
the upside potential. 

348
00:17:40,300 --> 00:17:42,500
They want to say that we're 
having a hard enough time with 

349
00:17:42,500 --> 00:17:45,600
fake information. 
Now we have deep fakes which are

350
00:17:45,600 --> 00:17:50,000
looking ever more convincing and
they are looking ever more. 

351
00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:53,400
Convincing, those two from those
major advertisements weren't 

352
00:17:53,400 --> 00:17:56,100
even the best ones online. 
Some of these deep fakes are 

353
00:17:56,100 --> 00:17:59,900
looking pretty convincing. 
I'm going to show you some 

354
00:17:59,900 --> 00:18:03,800
magic. 
It's the real thing. 

355
00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:15,200
I mean, It's all the real. 
I mean we can still tell the 

356
00:18:15,200 --> 00:18:18,300
difference, right? 
This isn't really Tom Cruise. 

357
00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:20,400
You can tell that this really 
isn't Tom Cruise. 

358
00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:22,600
Right? 
Well maybe but maybe not you 

359
00:18:22,600 --> 00:18:24,600
have to admit. 
This is starting to look pretty 

360
00:18:24,600 --> 00:18:27,100
convincing now I don't know 
exactly how this is going to 

361
00:18:27,108 --> 00:18:29,700
play out over the next year but 
my prediction is we're going to 

362
00:18:29,708 --> 00:18:32,500
see this as a growing problem. 
I think over the next year we're

363
00:18:32,500 --> 00:18:35,600
going to see a lot of lawsuits 
from celebrities that aren't 

364
00:18:35,600 --> 00:18:38,600
happy with their image being 
used by random advertisements, 

365
00:18:38,800 --> 00:18:42,300
especially when the Fidelity of 
real and fake gets better and 

366
00:18:42,300 --> 00:18:44,800
better. 
Were actually convinces people, 

367
00:18:45,000 --> 00:18:47,200
that it's real. 
So so, we'll see how this plays 

368
00:18:47,200 --> 00:18:49,100
out now, that's going to be all 
for this episode. 

369
00:18:49,100 --> 00:18:51,000
Thank you for joining and I'll 
see you in the next one.