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Welcome back everyone. 
Today on the Joseph Carlson 

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Show. 
I just bought another $5000 of 

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this company. 
I'll give you a hint, it's 

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between Amazon and Google, one 
of these two. 

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Obviously I'm very bullish on 
both of these companies. 

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I'll be going over both of them 
for a bit and explaining why I'm

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adding more to this position. 
We also have news NVIDIA hit a 

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$4 trillion market cap, The 
first company to do it. 

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Terry Smith from Fundsmith 
released his six month update 

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and it doesn't look good. 
His fund is still struggling. 

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He, of course, is a high quality
growth investor. 

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What is going wrong to have the 
Fundsmith portfolio continually 

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underperform? 
And then we have some big news 

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in the credit market. 
FICO now has a new competitor, 

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which is Vantage Score. 
FICO is now down 15% year to 

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date. 
The stock is a mess right now. 

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We'll be going over it. 
Waymo is now giving rides to 

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teenagers and testing out trying
to expand in New York City. 

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And we have Sam Altman answering
questions on the side of the 

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road with some killer 
sunglasses. 

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We'll be looking at that as 
well. 

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Now to start things off, we jump
into the latest buy here, the 

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company that I've added another 
$5000 to in My Portfolio. 

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And I said it was between Google
and Amazon. 

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These are two companies that 
I've spoken about over and over 

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again over the past year or so 
because I believe they're two of

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the most well risk adjusted 
returns in the market. 

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Now, what do I mean by risk 
adjusted? 

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Well, there are companies that 
offer more potential upside than

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Amazon and Google. 
In fact, there's many of them in

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the market. 
There's companies like Hims and 

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Hers, the healthcare company 
trying to redefine this 

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industry. 
There's companies like Shark 

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Ninja, always innovating, 
creating new products, growing 

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much faster than their 
competition. 

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There's even ones like Crocs. 
Crocs is a company that's grown 

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its revenue tremendously over 
the years and it's had great 

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success. 
While it's true that companies 

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like this have the potential to 
outperform a Google or Amazon 

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over the next 5, the issue is 
the predictability of these 

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companies, The relative 
downside. 

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They are far less predictable 
than a company like Amazon and 

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Google. 
And if you're investing just a 

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couple $1000, that may not seem 
like a big deal when you're 

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putting 10s of thousands of 
dollars into an investment. 

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It's important for me to have a 
high degree of predictability. 

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I want to know that I'll make 
money on every single company 

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that I'll buy, or at the very 
least that I have an incredibly 

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high chance of making money. 
What Amazon and Google offer is 

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not the highest rewards possible
in the market, but incredibly 

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good risk adjusted rewards. 
They are both growing quickly 

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and they're highly predictable 
companies. 

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And between the two companies, 
today I've decided to buy 

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Google. 
Amazon, I believe, has 

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incredible durability and long 
term potential, so having a 

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large position in this company 
is fine. 

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But when I look at Google over 
the next three to six months, I 

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could see a lot change. 
The reason I believe that Google

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could move up quickly in the 
short term is because right now 

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I believe the company's 
mispriced. 

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I think it's undervalued. 
It's an exceptional company 

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trading at an 18 to 19 Ford PE 
ratio. 

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Based on the fundamentals, 
Google's being priced with a lot

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of risk. 
Now, some people will argue, and

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I believe that this is one of 
the worst arguments of any 

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analyst, is they'll argue that 
Google can't be mispriced 

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because it's such a big company.
There's already so many people 

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looking at it, there's already 
so many analysts covering it. 

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How could it be mispriced? 
Wouldn't the efficient market 

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kick in? 
Would it, after all, everybody 

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knowing about Google's business 
cause it to be efficiently and 

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accurately priced? 
Let's go ahead and just observe 

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that theory in action. 
Just a few years ago, one of the

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biggest winners in My Portfolio 
is Netflix. 

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It's a $147,000 position, the 
majority of that being gains 

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$91,000 in the green on this 
stock. 

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Looking at the case of Netflix, 
this company dropped 74% in just

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a few months because it missed 
1,000,000 subscribers. 

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It lost 1,000,000 subscribers 
along its growth, going from 

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around $700.00 per share, down 
below $200 per share. 

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Now the company has recovered 
all the way up to around $1300 

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per share, going up five to six 
X from the Lowe's. 

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Now this is a company that looks
like investors don't know how to

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price it. 
They didn't know what it was 

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worth in 2022. 
In fact, when we look at some of

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the content of some of the 
biggest channels, some of the 

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the biggest media personalities 
in 2022, this is what it looked 

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like. 
We have from Cold Fusion a video

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that got 1.8 million views. 
This video was a 13 minute essay

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on why Netflix screwed up, how 
the companies devastated, how 

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everything has gone wrong. 
It was the fall of Netflix that 

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got 1.8 million views and that 
was during a time period where 

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Netflix was $180 per share. 
We have another one here from a 

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very popular channel, the 
company man, Netflix, the rise 

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and fall. 
We have another one, The rise 

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and fall of Netflix. 
These are three videos going 

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over the destruction of this 
company, how it's now being out 

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competed, how there's more 
streaming services than ever, 

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how competition came in and 
disrupted their business model, 

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how they raise prices too much, 
how they offended customers with

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their password sharing 
crackdown. 

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You can watch all of them and 
they go over a very grim picture

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of the company. 
While ironically, this was the 

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best time to be buying a Netflix
stock, where the general 

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consensus of the media and 
consumers that know the company 

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in depth was the most negative 
was the best time to be buying 

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the company. 
So we know that just a couple 

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years ago they got Netflix 
wrong. 

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The general media, the 
consensus, the consumers, all 

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the big personalities 
misunderstood Netflix to a 

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dramatic degree. 
And that was Netflix, which is a

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very well known, easy to 
understand company by the 

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consumer, or so they thought. 
Really, Netflix was a lot more 

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difficult to understand than 
people realized. 

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And I would argue the same from 
Google. 

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Google has a more complex set of
assets than Netflix. 

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Netflix is a very 
straightforward subscription 

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company. 
Google owns YouTube, Waymo, they

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have Google Cloud, they have all
these office type of they have a

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bunch of cloud hosting and 
applications. 

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They have a bunch of Longshot 
bets in different companies. 

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And of course they have their 
search engine and their AI 

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models. 
Google's a far more complex, 

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difficult company to understand 
than one like Netflix. 

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So if there's a chance that 
investors can misunderstand a 

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company, I believe there's a 
strong possibility that they're 

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still getting Google wrong, even
though it's right before our 

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eyes. 
If we look at some examples of 

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this, some of the things I see 
currently about Google are very 

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reminiscent of what we saw a 
year or two ago about Netflix. 

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Now, this is a smaller you 
tuber, 37,000 views. 

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Not bad, but it's not a major 
one. 

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Here we have a major one Mr. 
who's the boss gets millions of 

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views. 
Why Google search is falling 

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apart. 4.4 million views only 
eight months ago and then in the

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biggest text possible, it sucks 
with devil bullhorns on top of 

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the Google logo and then it 
looks like blood on it. 

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This is about as bad of a look 
as you can get as a company. 

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It looks like something's going 
deeply, deeply wrong with 

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Google. 
Then we have once the biggest 

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channel on YouTube, the most 
subscribed at one point which is

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PewDiePie and him saying I'm 
done with Google. 

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Crossing out YouTube in this 
video is a 23 minute video going

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over instructions on how to 
change your default search 

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engine from Google to DuckDuckGo
and other various search 

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engines, going on about how 
Google invades your privacy, how

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bad the Google service is, how 
the Google search is no longer 

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as good as it used to be, and so
on and so forth. 

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There's major publications 
continually talking about how 

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Google search is on its end of 
life, its last breath. 

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Google as you know it is slowly 
dying. 

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The search engine is having a 
midlife crisis, and now that's 

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your problem. 
This one's by Vox. 

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So we have a company that has 
broad negative media coverage by

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almost every mainstream 
publication as well as even 

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online creators than the general
public. 

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Most people are under the 
impression that Google search is

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dying, but most people don't 
read earnings reports. 

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One of the most difficult parts 
of being an investor is to be 

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able to look at the data to make
good judgments on the actual 

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information and not just buy 
into whatever the prevailing 

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sentiment is. 
We know right now the prevailing

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sentiment is that Google search 
is dying. 

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But when we look at the data and
we look at how it's growing over

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time, Google search is growing 
12% year over year. 

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In fact, it continues to grow 
virtually every quarter. 

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It slowed down a little bit in 
Q4 of 2022 to Q1 of 2023. 

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So there is a a little bit of a 
slow down there, but it 

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continued to grow over time. 
Google leadership also noted 

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that it's not just ad volume 
increasing or ad rates 

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increasing, it's also the amount
of users. 

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There's more users and there's 
more queries. 

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They're searching more, they're 
engaging more with it. 

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So the product is growing in the
number of users, the amount that

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users frequent the search 
engine, the types of ways they 

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search and in the ad rates, all 
combining to a nice 12% growth 

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on a business already doing over
$150 billion, now it's doing 

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$200 billion in the last 12 
months. 

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This is a fast growing business 
for a dying business. 

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Do we see the death in the 
numbers? 

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Well, maybe it's just right 
around the corner. 

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Well, that's what the narrative 
is, that the death of Google 

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hasn't happened yet, but it's 
right around the corner. 

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You know what happens with those
narratives? 

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Well, one of two things. 
Either the narrative really 

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plays out and Google search does
die. 

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It's right around the corner. 
And then Google search starts to

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slow down. 
The revenue stops growing, and 

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then it starts to shrink. 
Management has to come out and 

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say that the volume of search is
going down and the bears would 

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be proven right in that case. 
And on the other side, there's 

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another narrative that has to 
play out. 

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We can look again at the example
of Netflix. 

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When the narrative was that 
Netflix's growth was done, 

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that's when the stock went down 
75%. 

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And if you can believe it, it 
was because of these quarters 

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right here. 
We had right there a quarter 

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where Netflix had 221.6 million 
subscribers. 

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It went to 220.6. 
The narrative became that 

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Netflix was dying. 
But when Netflix started to grow

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again, even past where they just
lost their subscribers past this

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quarter, Netflix stock did not 
react right away. 

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00:10:00,760 --> 00:10:05,000
In fact, in Q4 of 2022, Netflix 
was still at around $200 per 

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share. 
Now, I do not believe that 

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Google's at the same value that 
Netflix was back in 2022. 

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I don't think it's that extreme,
but I would say that I think 

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that Google will prove out this 
theory over time. 

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Over time, as it grows, the bear
case will be minimized. 

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The stock could be RE rated to a
much higher multiple, and the 

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combination of a RE rating 
multiple plus earnings per share

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growth equates to enormous gains
in a stock where stock can go up

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203050 100% from its current 
share price. 

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This narrative that Google 
search is in dire trouble is an 

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ingrained narrative in media 
right now. 

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It takes time to uproot and 
disprove these narratives. 

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When we look at Google search, I
believe it has to continue 

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growing for at least two to 
three more quarters for this 

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narrative to fully die out. 
We need another full year of 

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growth and then I think this 
narrative will be dead. 

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Google stock will be materially 
rated higher. 

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So the bull case of Google is 
the death of this narrative, 

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which is the death of Google 
search. 

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When that narrative dies, this 
company could re rate back to 

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00:11:06,080 --> 00:11:11,040
A22PE25 PE ratio. 
It'd go from 180 to around 

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2/22/30. 
We could see that happen in a 

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short amount of time if we 
continually get good quarters. 

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But there's always the downside 
in every company. 

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What if we are wrong on Google? 
What if the search business does

229
00:11:22,160 --> 00:11:26,080
get pressured by ChatGPT? 
What if the bears are right in 

230
00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:27,760
that regard? 
Well, this is where I believe 

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00:11:27,760 --> 00:11:30,680
the risk side of the risk 
adjusted returns kicks in. 

232
00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:33,200
When I look at the downside of 
Google, there's a couple things 

233
00:11:33,200 --> 00:11:34,680
that gives me a little bit of 
confidence. 

234
00:11:34,720 --> 00:11:37,800
One of them is that it's already
trading at a relatively low PE 

235
00:11:37,800 --> 00:11:40,000
ratio. 
Can the multiples go lower? 

236
00:11:40,080 --> 00:11:44,680
Sure, it could go down to a 13 
or a 12 PE ratio, but there is a

237
00:11:44,680 --> 00:11:47,400
valuation floor for Google. 
The other part of this risk 

238
00:11:47,400 --> 00:11:50,200
adjusted return is looking at 
the different businesses that 

239
00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:52,320
Google's in. 
For example, if we just look at 

240
00:11:52,320 --> 00:11:54,600
two different lines of business,
and these are ones that I 

241
00:11:54,600 --> 00:11:57,720
continually highlight that seem 
like they're being entirely 

242
00:11:57,720 --> 00:12:01,120
ignored, and the valuation of 
Google is YouTube and Google 

243
00:12:01,280 --> 00:12:04,680
Cloud combined growth of 21% per
year. 

244
00:12:04,840 --> 00:12:07,840
It could be worth slightly more 
than Netflix, which Netflix is 

245
00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:10,640
currently worth over $500 
billion. 

246
00:12:10,840 --> 00:12:13,920
It's growing its share time of 
TV faster than any streaming 

247
00:12:13,920 --> 00:12:15,960
company. 
So Google right now trades at 

248
00:12:15,960 --> 00:12:18,840
around a $2.1 trillion market 
cap. 

249
00:12:19,240 --> 00:12:23,160
And just this aspect of the 
company could be worth 50% of it

250
00:12:23,280 --> 00:12:26,000
in a couple years. 
Then we have Google Cloud, which

251
00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:29,360
does more revenue than YouTube 
and it's growing faster than 

252
00:12:29,360 --> 00:12:31,480
YouTube. 
If YouTube's worth maybe 6, $100

253
00:12:31,480 --> 00:12:36,720
billion, Google Cloud is likely 
worth 7 hundred, $800 billion At

254
00:12:36,720 --> 00:12:39,960
this point in time. 
I believe just these two assets 

255
00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:43,920
alone could be worth the entire 
market cap of Google in less 

256
00:12:43,920 --> 00:12:46,800
than five years. 
Meaning that even if the death 

257
00:12:46,800 --> 00:12:50,760
of Google search is true to an 
alarming extent, far more than 

258
00:12:50,760 --> 00:12:53,880
anyone's predicting, where 
literally nobody uses Google 

259
00:12:53,880 --> 00:12:57,000
search ever again, these two 
businesses in and of themselves 

260
00:12:57,000 --> 00:12:59,680
could support Google stock price
in five years. 

261
00:12:59,760 --> 00:13:02,360
So that's why I continue to buy 
this this company and I talk 

262
00:13:02,360 --> 00:13:04,840
about it frequently. 
Some people say that I mentioned

263
00:13:04,840 --> 00:13:07,920
the same group of companies over
and over again, and I do that 

264
00:13:07,920 --> 00:13:10,280
because I believe they're 
currently a good buy. 

265
00:13:10,680 --> 00:13:14,120
I believe Google, Amazon, 
Equifax, that these companies 

266
00:13:14,120 --> 00:13:17,520
are sound buys right now in an 
otherwise increasingly expensive

267
00:13:17,520 --> 00:13:19,480
market. 
And I did the same thing during 

268
00:13:19,480 --> 00:13:21,480
Netflix. 
Lots of people over the years 

269
00:13:21,480 --> 00:13:23,920
complained that I talked too 
much about Netflix. 

270
00:13:24,040 --> 00:13:26,720
I made video after video about 
this company because I was 

271
00:13:26,720 --> 00:13:29,440
convinced it was value. 
I believe the same thing about 

272
00:13:29,440 --> 00:13:32,200
Google today, and I'll continue 
to make videos about it until I 

273
00:13:32,200 --> 00:13:34,280
believe otherwise. 
Now that we've gone over that, 

274
00:13:34,280 --> 00:13:35,720
let's go ahead and jump into 
some news. 

275
00:13:35,800 --> 00:13:39,760
We have NVIDIA hitting a $4 
trillion market cap, and it's 

276
00:13:39,760 --> 00:13:43,520
the first company to ever do so.
Nvidia's growth has made it more

277
00:13:43,520 --> 00:13:45,280
valuable than all of these 
companies. 

278
00:13:45,400 --> 00:13:48,400
It's the world's most valuable 
company, surpassing Microsoft 

279
00:13:48,400 --> 00:13:51,000
and Apple. 
Now they're doing this while 

280
00:13:51,000 --> 00:13:54,240
having the Chinese market 
largely closed off to them. 

281
00:13:54,240 --> 00:13:56,840
We're handicapping NVIDIA, and 
they're still the biggest 

282
00:13:56,840 --> 00:13:59,520
company in the world. 
This is just incredible again to

283
00:13:59,520 --> 00:14:03,120
see now the stock, this is at 
the $4 trillion market cap, the 

284
00:14:03,120 --> 00:14:06,160
company's up 18% year to date 
and the other companies that it 

285
00:14:06,160 --> 00:14:08,240
surpassed are also not doing too
poorly. 

286
00:14:08,560 --> 00:14:11,320
Microsoft just passed $500 per 
share. 

287
00:14:11,320 --> 00:14:14,760
NVIDIA has potential to grow 
faster, but I still believe it's

288
00:14:14,760 --> 00:14:18,640
less reliable or predictable 
than Microsoft just by virtue of

289
00:14:18,640 --> 00:14:20,960
their subscription revenue. 
And moving on, we also get to 

290
00:14:20,960 --> 00:14:24,400
the news that Fund Smith with 
Terry Smith as its leader 

291
00:14:24,680 --> 00:14:27,160
released their semi annual 
performance review. 

292
00:14:27,160 --> 00:14:30,240
This is their six month update 
and this shows a fund that's 

293
00:14:30,240 --> 00:14:32,640
continually struggling and this 
time they had a lot of 

294
00:14:32,640 --> 00:14:35,280
challenges they're facing. 
The Fundsmith equity portfolio 

295
00:14:35,280 --> 00:14:40,400
is down 1.9% year to date. 
Their benchmark is up .1%. 

296
00:14:40,520 --> 00:14:43,200
Now, keep in mind that Fundsmith
does benchmark themselves 

297
00:14:43,200 --> 00:14:46,720
against the MSI World Index. 
They use that as the index 

298
00:14:46,720 --> 00:14:49,000
because they're invested in 
international stocks as well as 

299
00:14:49,080 --> 00:14:51,120
U.S. stocks. 
But it's important to note that 

300
00:14:51,120 --> 00:14:56,200
the MSCI World Index has 
underperformed both the S&P 500 

301
00:14:56,240 --> 00:14:59,440
and the QQQ. 
So this performance is not great

302
00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:03,320
by the looks of it. 
And this comes after years of 

303
00:15:03,320 --> 00:15:05,960
underperformance from Terry 
Smith's Fundsmith. 

304
00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:09,040
For the past few years, he's 
made a series of mistakes. 

305
00:15:09,120 --> 00:15:12,080
The stocks that have done the 
most poorly is Novo Nordisk and 

306
00:15:12,200 --> 00:15:14,720
Louis Vuitton. 
These stocks have both detracted

307
00:15:14,720 --> 00:15:17,720
from their top winners. 
He says that Novo Nordisk alone 

308
00:15:17,720 --> 00:15:20,200
accounted for almost all the 
underperformance during this 

309
00:15:20,200 --> 00:15:22,640
period. 
Its ability to snatch defeat 

310
00:15:22,640 --> 00:15:25,800
from the jaws of victory in 
respect to its leadership in 

311
00:15:25,800 --> 00:15:28,120
weight loss drugs continues to 
be remarkable. 

312
00:15:28,440 --> 00:15:31,880
Its inability to deal with the 
US legal and regulatory systems 

313
00:15:31,880 --> 00:15:34,920
approach to its success would be
interesting to observe from a 

314
00:15:34,920 --> 00:15:37,520
safe distance. 
He does not have kind remarks 

315
00:15:37,520 --> 00:15:41,280
for Novo Nordisk, another Danish
medical company, Coloplast. 

316
00:15:41,360 --> 00:15:43,680
Coloplast was a company whose 
revenue growth rate was 

317
00:15:43,680 --> 00:15:46,120
metronomic. 
Probably not coincidentally, 

318
00:15:46,320 --> 00:15:48,720
following two major 
acquisitions, it had encountered

319
00:15:48,720 --> 00:15:50,560
a series of operational 
failures. 

320
00:15:50,720 --> 00:15:54,360
So Terry Smith is blaming these 
two companies and operational 

321
00:15:54,360 --> 00:15:58,800
complexities, as well as this 
company, Novo Nordisk snatching 

322
00:15:58,800 --> 00:16:01,640
defeat from the jaws of victory.
It seems like he's trying to 

323
00:16:01,640 --> 00:16:04,680
throw the blame on the 
companies, which is fine. 

324
00:16:04,680 --> 00:16:07,360
You can highlight how companies 
have underperformed and what 

325
00:16:07,360 --> 00:16:10,040
went wrong with the company, but
he is the one that chose to 

326
00:16:10,040 --> 00:16:12,760
invest in these companies, ones 
that are in the Pharmaceutical 

327
00:16:12,760 --> 00:16:16,160
industry, which is notably 
difficult to make predictable 

328
00:16:16,160 --> 00:16:18,680
investments in. 
This is precisely the reason 

329
00:16:18,680 --> 00:16:21,600
that I avoid these very 
companies in My Portfolio. 

330
00:16:22,040 --> 00:16:24,920
Although the numbers can look 
good, the products can look 

331
00:16:24,920 --> 00:16:27,120
great and well needed with lots 
of demand. 

332
00:16:27,640 --> 00:16:29,800
They have incredible operational
complexity. 

333
00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:32,360
They have lots of red tape with 
regulations. 

334
00:16:32,640 --> 00:16:35,680
They have lots of lawsuit risk. 
There's lots of acquisitions. 

335
00:16:35,880 --> 00:16:38,560
There's so many moving variables
that it's very difficult to have

336
00:16:38,560 --> 00:16:41,640
any degree of predictability. 
So the very things he's 

337
00:16:41,640 --> 00:16:44,720
complaining about with these 
companies in particular was also

338
00:16:44,720 --> 00:16:47,680
his choice to invest in this 
industry and take on these 

339
00:16:47,680 --> 00:16:49,360
risks. 
Now, one thing where he has 

340
00:16:49,360 --> 00:16:52,480
probably a better excuse here is
the US dollar. 

341
00:16:52,560 --> 00:16:54,680
The majority of companies we 
invest in are based in the 

342
00:16:54,680 --> 00:16:57,280
United States. 
They report the US dollar and 

343
00:16:57,280 --> 00:16:59,720
more importantly have the 
majority of their revenues in 

344
00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:02,880
this currency. 
Therefore, the move in the pound

345
00:17:02,880 --> 00:17:06,240
versus the US dollar exchange 
rate from 1.25 at the beginning 

346
00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:11,160
of the year to 1.37 at the end 
of June, a 9% depreciation has 

347
00:17:11,160 --> 00:17:13,280
had a major effect. 
This can be seen in the fact 

348
00:17:13,280 --> 00:17:17,680
that our U.S. dollar denominated
fund was up by 6.3% in the first

349
00:17:17,680 --> 00:17:20,280
half of 2025. 
Now, it's good to let investors 

350
00:17:20,280 --> 00:17:23,680
know how the changes in currency
are impacting your performance, 

351
00:17:23,680 --> 00:17:25,760
and it's certainly doing this in
the negative this way. 

352
00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:29,080
But it's also important to 
realize that Fundsmith has been 

353
00:17:29,080 --> 00:17:32,000
on the other side of this for 
the better part of a decade. 

354
00:17:32,400 --> 00:17:35,240
For the past 10 years, the US 
dollar has been incredibly 

355
00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:37,800
strong, which is amplified 
Fundsmith's returns. 

356
00:17:38,320 --> 00:17:41,000
So he's highlighting that it's a
problem now, but they didn't 

357
00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:43,480
highlight it quite as much over 
the past 10 years when the US 

358
00:17:43,480 --> 00:17:47,200
dollar was working for them. 
Another eyebrow raising thing is

359
00:17:47,280 --> 00:17:50,040
the continual decisions that 
fund Smith's making. 

360
00:17:50,360 --> 00:17:52,080
And this is where I'll be a 
little bit more critical of 

361
00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:54,360
Terry Smith here. 
He says during the period we 

362
00:17:54,360 --> 00:17:57,960
began accumulating stakes in 
Zoetis, the animal health 

363
00:17:57,960 --> 00:18:00,000
company. 
Now, I know nothing about that 

364
00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:03,840
company, but the other one here 
I do know something about, which

365
00:18:03,840 --> 00:18:06,520
is Intuit. 
Well, just a couple years ago, 

366
00:18:06,520 --> 00:18:08,840
Fun Smith had a lot to say about
Intuit. 

367
00:18:08,920 --> 00:18:12,440
In December of 2022, Fun Smith 
noted that they're selling out 

368
00:18:12,440 --> 00:18:13,400
of Intuit. 
So Fun. 

369
00:18:13,400 --> 00:18:17,480
Smith sold into it when it was 
trading at a price of $387. 

370
00:18:17,960 --> 00:18:20,480
Now Terry Smith is buying back 
into the company at roughly 

371
00:18:20,480 --> 00:18:22,360
double the share price that they
had sold it. 

372
00:18:22,400 --> 00:18:25,320
Now I don't think it's the worst
thing ever to buy back into a 

373
00:18:25,320 --> 00:18:28,160
stock that you were previously 
bearish on, but I don't think 

374
00:18:28,160 --> 00:18:30,240
this is also the best moves from
Fundsmith. 

375
00:18:30,280 --> 00:18:33,680
I continually see a trend of 
mismanagement of key positions 

376
00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:35,240
hurting their long term 
performance. 

377
00:18:35,400 --> 00:18:38,080
Intuit's fundamentals were 
incredibly strong at the time 

378
00:18:38,080 --> 00:18:40,400
they sold the company. 
Their panic over the accounting 

379
00:18:40,400 --> 00:18:43,120
of stock based compensation 
causing them to exit the 

380
00:18:43,120 --> 00:18:45,520
position was not a good metric 
to sell off. 

381
00:18:45,520 --> 00:18:48,240
So hopefully Fundsmith will turn
this around over time, but so 

382
00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:50,280
far I see them continuing to 
struggle. 

383
00:18:50,440 --> 00:18:53,400
Now moving on, we get to some 
new developments in the world of

384
00:18:53,400 --> 00:18:55,480
credit scoring and home 
mortgages. 

385
00:18:55,480 --> 00:18:58,920
Lenders can now use the Vantage 
Score 4 Point O model or the 

386
00:18:58,920 --> 00:19:02,080
FICO 10T model when issuing 
loans that get sold to Fannie 

387
00:19:02,080 --> 00:19:04,000
and Freddie, according to their 
regulator. 

388
00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:07,760
The two mortgage giants package 
loans into bonds that get sold 

389
00:19:07,760 --> 00:19:11,080
to investors with government 
backing, and their underwriting 

390
00:19:11,080 --> 00:19:14,680
models are widely used in the 
$13 trillion mortgage market. 

391
00:19:15,120 --> 00:19:19,400
Now the FHFA, which is the 
regulatory body of this, their 

392
00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:22,560
decision reverses a plan that 
would have required both FICO 

393
00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:24,880
and a Vantage score on every 
loan. 

394
00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:27,560
That proposal drew push back 
from lenders over the cost and 

395
00:19:27,560 --> 00:19:30,520
complexity. 
Previously, only FICO scores 

396
00:19:30,520 --> 00:19:32,920
were accepted. 
It says that unlike traditional 

397
00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:37,200
FICO models, the Vantage score 4
point O incorporates alternative

398
00:19:37,200 --> 00:19:40,560
data such as rent, utility, 
telecom, payment history. 

399
00:19:40,600 --> 00:19:43,800
Now, FICO stock has been 
decimated after this change. 

400
00:19:44,080 --> 00:19:47,560
The stock was down around 15 to 
17% yesterday. 

401
00:19:47,960 --> 00:19:52,880
So we saw a big move down 
yesterday from around $1870 down

402
00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:56,880
to 1700, and now it's dropping 
further to 1593. 

403
00:19:57,120 --> 00:20:00,080
We have another 6 1/2 percent 
move down and the reason why is 

404
00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:02,560
because this is a very big 
mandate from the government. 

405
00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:06,000
Allowing access to other scoring
models, particularly the Vantage

406
00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:09,640
score makes it so FICO has a 
potential competitor when 

407
00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:11,200
looking at these important 
mortgages. 

408
00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:14,960
We know this is a big negative 
for FICO and a win for Vanish 

409
00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:17,840
score, but we don't know the 
extent most analysts. 

410
00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:21,360
Say it isn't clear that FICO 
will lose its dominant position 

411
00:20:21,360 --> 00:20:24,400
in the mortgage market, and I 
think it's very unlikely they'll

412
00:20:24,400 --> 00:20:26,920
lose their dominant position. 
If anything, they'll lose a 

413
00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:28,800
couple percentage points of 
market share. 

414
00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:33,000
It's very difficult to see how 
this plays out, but my guess is 

415
00:20:33,000 --> 00:20:36,120
over the upcoming quarters when 
we see what FICO reports that 

416
00:20:36,120 --> 00:20:38,680
they'll still put up incredibly 
strong numbers, I believe we'll 

417
00:20:38,680 --> 00:20:40,200
see a notable rebound in the 
stock. 

418
00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:41,640
Now we move on to another news 
story. 

419
00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:44,800
Here we have more Google News. 
This time it's Waymo specific. 

420
00:20:45,080 --> 00:20:48,200
Waymo is offering accounts for 
teenagers to ride in their 

421
00:20:48,200 --> 00:20:50,440
driverless cars. 
Waymo announced on Tuesday that 

422
00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:54,000
it's offering accounts for teens
14 to 17, starting in Phoenix. 

423
00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:56,440
I didn't know this, but 
previously users were required 

424
00:20:56,440 --> 00:20:59,240
to be at least 18 years old to 
sign up for a Waymo account. 

425
00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:02,200
I guess that makes sense. 
They want just adults trying out

426
00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:04,320
their new product. 
But it also shows that Waymo is 

427
00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:06,080
not even being fully utilized 
right now. 

428
00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:09,160
They're missing out an entire 
demographic, which is teenagers,

429
00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:11,360
and they they say that they're 
going to customize the 

430
00:21:11,360 --> 00:21:14,520
experience specifically for 
teenagers, saying Waymo will 

431
00:21:14,520 --> 00:21:18,080
offer specifically trained rider
support agents during rides 

432
00:21:18,080 --> 00:21:20,920
hailed by teens and Lupin 
parents if needed. 

433
00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:23,920
Teens can also share their trip 
status with their parents for 

434
00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:27,080
real time updates on their 
progress, and parents receive a 

435
00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:29,320
ride receipt. 
This may seem odd at first, but 

436
00:21:29,320 --> 00:21:31,840
I think it makes a lot of sense 
given the different choices. 

437
00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:35,280
If a parent is choosing between 
having their teenager take a 

438
00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:39,760
ride in an Uber with a random 
other human adult that you don't

439
00:21:39,760 --> 00:21:41,840
know anything about, you don't 
know their history, you don't 

440
00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:44,400
know which one's going to pick 
them up other than their Uber 

441
00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:48,200
star rating, sending your your 
kid off your teenager in that 

442
00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:51,320
situation seems far less 
favorable than sending them off 

443
00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:53,760
in a way MO where you know no 
one else is going to be in the 

444
00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:56,160
vehicle. 
The teenager will be completely 

445
00:21:56,160 --> 00:22:00,080
alone and the safety record of 
the vehicle is much better than 

446
00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:03,640
the average of a human driver. 
Then you add on that all the 

447
00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:06,440
different controls they have 
here with status updates, 

448
00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:10,000
specific software that tells the
parents where they are in the 

449
00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:12,120
vehicle. 
It seems far more favorable than

450
00:22:12,120 --> 00:22:14,600
other forms of transportation. 
I bet a lot of parents would 

451
00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:17,320
prefer this over having their 
teenagers drive themselves. 

452
00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:19,600
Now, another thing to look at 
here in terms of the business 

453
00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:22,560
side is Waymo is expanding its 
total addressable market. 

454
00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:26,680
If they now allow teenagers 
below 18 to enter into vehicles 

455
00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:29,600
and they have have these special
software for it, this opens up a

456
00:22:29,600 --> 00:22:32,400
whole new category of rider. 
And this may be a really good 

457
00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:36,040
category for Waymo. 
A lot of teenagers in particular

458
00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:38,800
may not have driving licenses. 
They may not have cars 

459
00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:40,880
themselves. 
A lot of them can't afford 

460
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:42,520
insurance. 
They haven't gotten around to 

461
00:22:42,520 --> 00:22:44,920
getting a driver's license, 
especially if they're younger 

462
00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:47,240
than 16. 
They can't even get a driver's 

463
00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:50,360
license in most states. 
So having autonomous ride 

464
00:22:50,360 --> 00:22:52,960
hailing may be their only form 
of transportation. 

465
00:22:53,360 --> 00:22:56,280
The fact that it's safer than 
them driving themselves is just 

466
00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:58,400
an added bonus. 
So this may actually be a 

467
00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:01,720
significant use case for Waymo. 
Not only are they expanding 

468
00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:04,480
geographically in different 
cities, but they're expanding 

469
00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:06,840
within their cities the total 
addressable market. 

470
00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:09,680
When we look at what else 
Waymo's doing, they're now one 

471
00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:12,280
step closer to New York City. 
They're doing testing in New 

472
00:23:12,280 --> 00:23:15,000
York to try to convince 
regulators that they can make it

473
00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:17,240
work. 
Waymo's first self driving taxis

474
00:23:17,240 --> 00:23:19,880
arrived in New York City this 
week to begin collecting data 

475
00:23:19,880 --> 00:23:23,000
with a human behind the wheel as
a company seeks a permit for 

476
00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:25,600
autonomous testing. 
They plan to gather data as its 

477
00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:29,120
cars are driven manually through
the city, an initial step into 

478
00:23:29,120 --> 00:23:31,520
one of the largest ride hailing 
markets in the US. 

479
00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:34,200
Waymo applied for a testing 
permit from New York City 

480
00:23:34,360 --> 00:23:36,040
Department of Transportation in 
June. 

481
00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:38,320
I believe Waymo will be 
operating in New York City in 

482
00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:40,360
the future. 
That is a massive market that 

483
00:23:40,360 --> 00:23:43,240
they can capitalize on. 
Now in terms of the testing, 

484
00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:46,600
this is another thing that Tesla
investors have continually 

485
00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:49,160
brought up that Waymo has to map
cities. 

486
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:52,200
They have to map them, and 
that's apparently a big 

487
00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:54,480
limitation of Waymo compared to 
Tesla. 

488
00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:57,240
Then we look at some of the 
biggest bulls on Tesla online 

489
00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:00,800
and they say that Tesla's out in
full force tonight validating 

490
00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:04,440
parts of downtown Austin. 
They're getting ready to expand.

491
00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:07,400
Here's the video shown of 
Tesla's validating these new 

492
00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:10,320
areas. 
If we look at it right there in 

493
00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:13,720
freeze, the Tesla has something 
mounted on top of it. 

494
00:24:14,040 --> 00:24:16,680
In this case, it's a, a Lidar 
system. 

495
00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:21,000
So Tesla before they enter an 
area, they have to drive a 

496
00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:23,640
vehicle around and that's a 
human driver and they're driving

497
00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:27,480
the vehicle around with a huge 
LIDAR system sticking up 6 feet 

498
00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:31,720
in the air validating the area. 
Now this is what Tesla investors

499
00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:34,760
do in this case. 
They don't call it mapping, they

500
00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:37,320
call it validating. 
No, they're, they're not mapping

501
00:24:37,320 --> 00:24:39,800
the area out. 
You can't call it the same term 

502
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:43,360
because then that would sound 
like they're doing exactly what 

503
00:24:43,360 --> 00:24:46,680
Waymo's doing, what Tesla's 
doing with their big Lidar 

504
00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:50,280
cameras, driving around 
predefined areas before they can

505
00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:54,240
actually operate in them. 
They are doing validating, not 

506
00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:56,320
mapping. 
Of course, this is a distinction

507
00:24:56,320 --> 00:24:58,520
without difference. 
Tesla has to go through 

508
00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:02,120
virtually the exact same steps 
before opening a new area as 

509
00:25:02,120 --> 00:25:05,320
Waymo, just like they're 
geofenced like Waymo. 

510
00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:08,720
They are expanding in the very 
same way that Waymo's expanding,

511
00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:11,400
but they're five years behind 
doing a fraction of the rides. 

512
00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:14,960
Now finally, we get into this 
interview, which if you're 

513
00:25:14,960 --> 00:25:17,960
listening to the the podcast 
version of this show, this is 

514
00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:19,120
one thing. 
You might want to watch the 

515
00:25:19,120 --> 00:25:22,360
video because it's it's 
difficult to explain what this 

516
00:25:22,360 --> 00:25:24,120
interview feels like when you're
watching it. 

517
00:25:24,360 --> 00:25:28,040
The sunglasses that Sam Altman's
wearing and just overall the 

518
00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:30,200
aesthetic of the interview. 
It's it's interesting. 

519
00:25:30,360 --> 00:25:33,120
It feels like I'm watching a 
scene out of the office. 

520
00:25:33,120 --> 00:25:34,680
That's kind of the vibe I get 
from this. 

521
00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:37,360
And Sam Altman seems to be 
caught off guard. 

522
00:25:37,360 --> 00:25:40,200
He's asked a few questions here 
and I like the answers that he 

523
00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:41,600
gives. 
The first one's about Mark 

524
00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:44,280
Zuckerberg stealing a lot of 
Meta's best employees. 

525
00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:46,520
Here's the way that he reacts to
this question. 

526
00:25:46,800 --> 00:25:49,040
How are you feeling about the 
battle for talent with Mark 

527
00:25:49,080 --> 00:25:54,520
Zuckerberg and Meta? 
After being asked about how he 

528
00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:58,120
feels that Mark Zuckerberg 
gutted a lot of his company, 

529
00:25:58,120 --> 00:26:01,520
taking some of the top talent, 
he shrugs his shoulders and says

530
00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:05,480
fine, good. 
I have a feeling that he doesn't

531
00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:09,200
feel so fine about that. 
He's really not so happy that he

532
00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:11,000
lost a lot of his best employees
to Meta. 

533
00:26:11,120 --> 00:26:13,800
The next thing he's asked about 
is the new political party made 

534
00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:15,480
by Elon Musk, the American 
Party. 

535
00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:16,960
Here's his reaction to it. 
But. 

536
00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:19,160
Could you donate to the American
Party perhaps? 

537
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:22,000
I I literally other than those 
words, you just said everything 

538
00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:24,440
I know about the party. 
I want to make of Elon's bust up

539
00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:26,000
with Trump. 
He must be finding that quite 

540
00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:28,200
funny watching from the side. 
Elon bust up with everybody. 

541
00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:29,680
I mean, come, I like it. 
That's what he does. 

542
00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:31,320
And how's your relationship 
with? 

543
00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:35,200
Him How do you think? 
What are the? 

544
00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:37,760
Topics you're most interested in
talking about here today. 

545
00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:42,560
AI he's asked what he thinks of 
Elon Musk and Trump breaking up 

546
00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:44,680
and he says that he breaks up 
with everyone. 

547
00:26:44,840 --> 00:26:48,320
He's asked what his relationship
is with Elon Musk and he says, 

548
00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:51,240
what do you think? 
And Sam Alton's right here. 

549
00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:54,840
I think Elon Musk, I don't know 
if it's his intention, but he 

550
00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:57,800
seems like he's, he has a goal 
of making enemies with almost 

551
00:26:57,800 --> 00:27:00,440
everyone. 
He's in combat mode all the 

552
00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:03,000
time, but maybe sometimes a 
little too much to his own 

553
00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:06,720
detriment, burning bridges with 
every business leader, every 

554
00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:08,600
political leader. 
And you can see the same thing 

555
00:27:08,600 --> 00:27:11,600
with Sam Altman. 
Sam Altman has been at odds with

556
00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:14,560
Elon Musk ever since Open AI 
took off. 

557
00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:16,760
The last thing I'd highlight 
from this is something that I 

558
00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:20,200
think is important. 
We had speculation when Joni 

559
00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:23,760
I've joined Open AI that they 
were working on eyewear, 

560
00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:27,120
specifically eyewear that has 
integrations with video, 

561
00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:31,080
integrations with AI. 
And he's asked here offhand if 

562
00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:33,200
those glasses he's wearing are 
smart glasses. 

563
00:27:34,360 --> 00:27:38,760
All right, I wish I had more 
smart glasses or no glasses. 

564
00:27:38,760 --> 00:27:40,040
Absolutely not. 
I don't like smart glasses. 

565
00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:41,960
Can you give any hints about 
what your hardware is going? 

566
00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:44,280
To be that, No, but it's going. 
To be great now, he said. 

567
00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:46,480
He's not giving any hints of 
what the hardware is going to be

568
00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:49,720
about, but he just gave 1. 
He says that he doesn't like 

569
00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:52,160
smart glasses, so we just 
eliminated one piece of 

570
00:27:52,160 --> 00:27:54,640
speculation. 
Open AI is probably not working 

571
00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:55,880
on smart glasses. 
Now. 

572
00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:58,640
That's all for this episode. 
Hope you enjoyed seeing the next

573
00:27:58,640 --> 00:27:58,920
one.
