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Welcome back to the Joseph 
Carlson show, we have a lot to 

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get to in this episode. 
First of all we have Advanced 

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Autoparts today and you can see 
it's down 33 percent 33% in a 

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day after its earnings and they 
say that it's also cutting its 

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dividend by 80%. 
So the dividends is basically 

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gone. 
We're going to be looking into 

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this earnings report Reading 
what the CEO of the company 

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actually says about it. 
And seeing if this has a greater

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impact on the overall Auto 
industry, is this going to hurt 

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companies like Tesla is It going
to hurt to AutoZone, we're going

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to be looking at that as well. 
We also have some other news. 

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We have some fun news with 
Netflix, not so fun. 

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If you're one of the ones who 
are, who are sharing passwords 

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Netflix, finally launched their 
password, Crackdown in the US, 

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and there's reports that it 
seems to be working. 

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So there's some third-party data
that's gone in and seen what 

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this is doing to people, 
canceling or people signing up. 

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We're going to be looking at the
data there. 

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As Netflix is one of my largest 
Holdings, we also have an 

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interview. 
I want to get two of Mark 

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mahaney. 
He's someone that I follow with 

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my growth portfolio because he 
is a longtime growth investor 

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specifically in Tech. 
He's almost like the Peter Lynch

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of tech companies. 
He looks for the fast-growing, 

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fast-moving tech companies and 
he has his three picks. 

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So we're going to be going over 
and doing analysis, on the three

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companies that he now says are a
bye. 

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And then finally, we also have 
to do a portfolio update. 

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On the story fund will be 
looking at this. 

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I'm going to be going over the 
performance this month. 

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Comparing it to spy and the Q 
and we'll be looking at that as 

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well. 
So without further Ado, we have 

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a lot to get to a lot of news to
cover. 

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Let's go ahead and get started. 
So let's go ahead and start off 

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with a portfolio update. 
For those of you new to the 

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channel and I appreciate you for
joining because we have 

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literally thousands of new 
people join every single month. 

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We've gained over 3,000 
subscribers and the past 30 

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days. 
So, welcome all of you that that

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I've joined along, just a 
reminder, we do things a little 

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bit differently here. 
A lot of YouTubers and financial

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content creators take stalkers 
fin. 

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Twitter's whatever you want to 
call them. 

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They don't really show their 
whole performance for, for lack 

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of a better term. 
They're just opaque. 

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They, they might talk about 
stocks, they might get excited 

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about them. 
They might Heat make huge 

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Declarations of what a stock is 
going to do. 

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But you rarely see one that 
shows their total performance 

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over long periods of time. 
And that is precisely what I do 

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here with my channels. 
I don't just show a snapshots or

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little slices of my current 
Holdings. 

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I show my entire performance 
with every single stock that 

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I've ever bought. 
Bought or sold for the lifetime 

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of the portfolio, every single 
week. 

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And that's what you're seeing 
here. 

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This represents my performance 
in this portfolio since the 

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beginning. 
Now, it's in the red right now 

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but it's actually not that bad 
because I started this portfolio

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right around 20 21 which was one
of the worst times that you 

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could start a portfolio. 
The market has gone down since 

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then. 
So right now I'm down. 

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Eight thousand. 
Nine. 

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Hundred dollars nine percent 
money waited. 

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If I look at this, There's the 
glass half empty glass half-full

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way of looking at it. 
I feel very good about this 

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performance because just a about
a year ago, one year ago I was -

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forty thousand dollars in this 
portfolio. 

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That was gloomy. 
That was a little bit depressing

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when I'm running a public 
portfolio and I'm doing this in 

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front of a lot of people and 
things aren't going your way. 

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Netflix is plummeting Amazon's 
not playing out it's like every 

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stock that I'm picking is going 
down. 

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That's not a fun thing. 
But I've done the research on 

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these companies, I still feel 
the same way I do when I first 

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bought them and they have been 
on an absolute streak. 

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They've been on a tear they've 
been really having a major 

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comeback. 
They went from - 40,000 to now -

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9,000 and we're just a bit aways
from going back in the green, a 

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couple more good days. 
And this portfolio will be in 

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the green overall. 
When I compared against the S&P 

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500, this is what it looks like 
overall. 

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So We have the whole timeline 
here and a lot of people ask, 

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why don't I compare this against
the queue or whatever different 

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index for me? 
The S&P 500 has always been the 

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standard. 
It's what Warren Buffett 

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compares to Cathy wood. 
It's what every major hedge fund

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compares to is the S&P 500. 
That's the reason I chose it. 

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What I plan on doing is at the 
end of five years, I plan on 

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adding in a bunch of different 
indexes, as well as the QQQ. 

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So I will be comparing this 
against other things as well. 

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When I look at this, we can see 
that over. 

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The past couple of months. 
The story fund has been like a 

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rocket just rocketing backup, 
really closing in the Gap. 

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We were major gap between my 
performance and the S&P 500, and

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now it's just a minor Gap. 
We've almost closed the Gap 

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completely to put this in 
perspective in the past. 30 

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days. 
This portfolio is up. 

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Let's take a look here, almost 
13%. 

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So sixteen thousand nine hundred
dollars in the past 30 days. 

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When we look at this, when we 
compare against the S&P 500, we 

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can bring it up. 
Here we go to the past 30 days, 

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performance spice flat. 
So, the S&P 500, The Benchmark 

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is flat. 
And the story fund is up 13 

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percent over the past 30 days, 
that's the Gap. 

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Being closed. 
When your portfolio goes up 13 

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percent over. 
The index that you're comparing 

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to Over The Benchmark, that's 
closing the Gap and even more. 

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So even if we compare against 
the QQQ, over the same time, 

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period, That's only up seven 
point eight percent. 

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So we still outperform the QQQ 
over the past 30 days. 

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Most of that has been led by a 
couple companies here, primarily

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Amazon and Netflix they have 
been on a roll Netflix is up 

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five thousand four hundred 
dollars. 

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Twenty percent Amazon is up 
13.5% even Google which I went 

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heavy into. 
Remember I sold a lot of 

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Salesforce and I went into 
Google. 

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This one's up 13.5% another 
three thousand dollars. 

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So these three companies 
Companies, Amazon Netflix and 

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Google have really, really done 
well, but the biggest one that's

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really caring. 
The portfolio right now is 

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Netflix. 
This is done phenomenal. 

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Netflix is up so much over the 
past year. 

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A lot of people are talking. 
They're talking about Nvidia and

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how, how great nvidia's done. 
That's true. 

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And video has been shockingly. 
Good. 

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We look at the performance and 
videos up, 113 percent over the 

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past trailing gear. 
We look at Netflix here. 

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Netflix hasn't done too bad over
the past trailing year, over the

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past year. 
It's up 103 percent. 

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So this company just hanging on 
to it and doubling down on. 

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It really has helped out the 
performance and it continues to 

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and I'll be talking more about 
that one later as we get into 

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the password. 
Crackdown. 

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But this is what the portfolio 
looks like over the past 30 

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days. 
We have the losers right here. 

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The more value oriented 
companies Crocs. 

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That one is down, 10%, but I 
have a just a watcher position 

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in it. 
It same with Berkshire, Hathaway

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pool Corpus down, 10% $200 
smaller position, but I'm still 

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very bullish on pool Corp, we 
have every other company, all 

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the tech names, make them big 
gains, big gains. 

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The biggest winner over the past
30 days of my portfolio, is 

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Netflix by about double. 
So this one has really helped 

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out the portfolio. 
It's now position size of 35,000

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dollars. 
It's a lot of money to be 

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invested in this company. 
I've remained very optimistic 

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about this company over. 
Optimistic and I want to go into

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that a little bit more later. 
But that is a performance over 

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this month. 
Right now, we're down 9,000, and

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I still think we can pull out of
this and beat the S&P 500. 

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That's the goal. 
And I'll continue to track this 

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portfolio and share it publicly.
Now, let's go ahead and get to 

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the shocking news here about 
Advanced Auto Parts to me. 

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This seems like an AutoZone 
company is basically the same 

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type of business model. 
So if we go to Advanced Auto 

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Parts, let's see where it's at 
right now. 

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Maybe it's recovered a bit. 
Nope, this company still down. 

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34%, we have a note here, saying
the Advanced Auto Parts Shares 

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are trading lower after the 
company reported less worse, 

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than expected, q1 Financial 
results, and cut the financial 

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23 earnings per share on Revenue
guidance below estimates. 

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So reported bad, earnings last 
quarter and then it cut guidance

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and Advanced Auto Parts is an 
auto parts company. 

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Simple, simple deduction, here 
are car companies in trouble. 

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That's we're going to be looking
at this company. 

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Overall has steady Revenue 
growth, the free cash flows, not

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really growing over the past 
decade, actually it's pretty 

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flat. 
The sheer counts going down. 

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They're probably trying to 
follow AutoZone but the share 

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price has just been pummeled. 
You're at a date, it's down 49 

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percent past year, it's down 
59%, this is an astonishing. 

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Just drop in price. 
In fact, this is the lowest by 

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far and five years down. 40% in 
five years, company's, not doing

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great. 
Let's take a look at AutoZone 

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and see how that one's holding 
up with this news autosomes down

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5%. 
I thought there'd be some 

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sympathy trading down, there is 
a little bit but I thought there

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might be a little bit more. 
Seems like AutoZone may have a 

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better business model. 
They may have a more resilient 

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business to some degree because 
it's odd to see one of them down

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30% and this one only down four 
percent but we'll see. 

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What AutoZone does when we look 
at the actual report here, I 

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want to bring up the actual 
earnings report and we have it 

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right here. 
This is from the actual CEO of 

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the company not from CNBC, or 
their interpretation. 

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So, let's just go ahead and read
what the company themselves are 

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saying about the situation. 
I want to thank our Advanced 

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team members and independent 
partners for their continued 

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hard work and focus on serving 
our customers while we 

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anticipate, the first quarter 
would be challenging our results

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were below. 
Patient's, net sales grew one 

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point, one point, three percent 
in the quarter, our operating 

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margin rate of 2.6% in the 
quarter was well below 

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expectations due to higher than 
planned Investments to narrow 

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competitive price gaps in the 
professional sales Channel, as 

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well as unfavorable product 
mixes usually unfavorable 

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product mixes. 
When I look at what that 

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actually means, that's a fancy. 
Corporate way of saying, that 

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people are trading down when 
they come by the really hired. 

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Name brand stuff, the more 
expensive stuff, the premium 

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stuff. 
They don't pick that they pick 

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the generics. 
So it's like if you go, you go 

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into Walmart and you have the 
normal brand of Oreos and then 

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you have the good value. 
Walmart brand of knockoff Oreos,

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unfavorable product mix would be
people choosing the lower end 

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breads. 
That's what that means. 

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Typically, now he continues on 
here and it actually gets worse.

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He says that we remain focused 
on improving inventory, 

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availability, while sustaining 
competitive price targets to 

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improve. 
Top Line Sales, we expect the 

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competitive Dynamics, we face in
the first quarter to continue 

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resulting in a shortfall to our 
2023 expectations. 

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I don't know if this is a good 
thing or a bad thing for Auto 

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Zone in the other companies. 
This may be an admission that 

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they're gaining market share. 
They're really, they're 

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competing really well, it might 
be that the entire industry is 

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doing poorly. 
He says that we have reduced our

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full-year guidance, and the 
board of directors made the 

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difficult decision to reduce our
quarterly. 

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Early dividend, when you have a 
company and let's take a look at

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this. 
Let's see how long that they've 

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paid the dividend. 
We don't even have a dividend 

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ago. 
This is Auto Sound. 

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Let's go back to AP. 
Let's take a look at the 

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dividend of this company so 
they've been paying the dividend

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00:11:44,900 --> 00:11:52,100
from 2006-2008 10, 11, 12, 13, 
14, 15, every single year. 

228
00:11:52,100 --> 00:11:54,400
They've been paying a dividend 
since 2006. 

229
00:11:54,900 --> 00:11:58,400
They grew it tremendously over 
the past couple of years. 

230
00:11:59,300 --> 00:12:02,600
The dividend growth rate is 40%,
so they grew as fast as they 

231
00:12:02,600 --> 00:12:05,500
could, and now they're 
backtracking and cutting the 

232
00:12:05,500 --> 00:12:10,100
dividend Warren Buffett has said
when a long-term dividend pair. 

233
00:12:10,300 --> 00:12:13,600
What's their dividend? 
It's a terrible. 

234
00:12:13,800 --> 00:12:17,000
Terrible indicator for the 
company horrible fundamental 

235
00:12:17,000 --> 00:12:19,800
indicator. 
Anytime that happens, it spells,

236
00:12:20,100 --> 00:12:21,700
bad news. 
He does not like seeing that 

237
00:12:21,700 --> 00:12:25,300
happen in addition, in 
connection with my pending 

238
00:12:25,300 --> 00:12:28,100
retirement. 
You goes on explaining that 

239
00:12:28,100 --> 00:12:29,600
there's going to be other people
taking his role. 

240
00:12:29,700 --> 00:12:33,200
So he's also retiring as a CEO 
but that's it. 

241
00:12:33,200 --> 00:12:37,800
We have customers trading down 
from premium Brands to lower end

242
00:12:37,800 --> 00:12:40,100
Brands. 
We have competition way. 

243
00:12:40,200 --> 00:12:42,000
Weighing on them, that's not 
good. 

244
00:12:42,000 --> 00:12:46,000
We have a dividend cut and then 
we have them also having 

245
00:12:46,000 --> 00:12:48,400
margins. 
Well, below their expectations 

246
00:12:49,100 --> 00:12:50,800
just in the first paragraphs 
here. 

247
00:12:51,100 --> 00:12:54,600
I think the 30% sell-off is 
probably warranted. 

248
00:12:54,900 --> 00:12:57,700
This company had nothing but bad
news to share for investors. 

249
00:12:57,800 --> 00:13:00,100
So how does this affect the rest
of the Auto industry companies? 

250
00:13:00,100 --> 00:13:03,900
Like AutoZone car companies, 
popular Investments like Tesla. 

251
00:13:04,400 --> 00:13:07,900
I'm not sure the ongoing impact.
This is going to be on the rest 

252
00:13:07,900 --> 00:13:10,100
of the industry. 
When I look at any company. 

253
00:13:10,400 --> 00:13:13,200
That's exposed to Auto. 
We can look at Ally Financial 

254
00:13:13,200 --> 00:13:14,500
here. 
If I can type it in correctly, 

255
00:13:14,500 --> 00:13:18,200
Ally, financials heavily exposed
to Auto and the loans that they 

256
00:13:18,200 --> 00:13:21,100
give out. 
This company is also done pretty

257
00:13:21,100 --> 00:13:23,900
horrible over the past year. 
This has been one that I've 

258
00:13:23,900 --> 00:13:26,600
avoided specifically because I 
didn't like their balance sheet,

259
00:13:26,600 --> 00:13:30,400
so exposed to Auto industry. 
And it's the same thing with 

260
00:13:30,400 --> 00:13:34,900
really any company that has this
level of exposure to a highly 

261
00:13:34,900 --> 00:13:40,700
cyclical capital-intensive 
recession, non-resistant Astri, 

262
00:13:40,700 --> 00:13:43,100
like the Auto industry. 
I think it's very dangerous. 

263
00:13:43,100 --> 00:13:46,300
The games that investors play 
investing in these companies and

264
00:13:46,300 --> 00:13:48,000
I think you really have to know 
what you're doing. 

265
00:13:48,500 --> 00:13:50,600
So weather effects companies 
like Tesla. 

266
00:13:50,900 --> 00:13:53,200
I think the effects will be very
minor. 

267
00:13:53,200 --> 00:13:56,200
I don't see this as a big thing 
but I still believe that Tesla 

268
00:13:56,200 --> 00:13:59,100
is going to be susceptible to 
The Wider Auto industry. 

269
00:13:59,500 --> 00:14:01,700
So I think there's going to be 
some volatility there. 

270
00:14:02,000 --> 00:14:04,500
It's still not a company that 
I'm looking at unless I can get 

271
00:14:04,500 --> 00:14:06,900
it at a much more attractive 
valuation than what it's trading

272
00:14:06,900 --> 00:14:08,300
at. 
So, I'm not going to be buying 

273
00:14:08,300 --> 00:14:11,100
the dip in these Auto Parts 
companies or Type of auto 

274
00:14:11,100 --> 00:14:14,200
company to begin with, for me, 
it's not the most attractive 

275
00:14:14,200 --> 00:14:16,800
industry to be in. 
Now, moving on from that, we 

276
00:14:16,800 --> 00:14:20,400
have other news here that 
Netflix has finally done their 

277
00:14:20,400 --> 00:14:24,300
password sharing Crackdown in 
the US, the time has finally 

278
00:14:24,400 --> 00:14:27,800
arrived. 
Now, let me just say this when I

279
00:14:27,800 --> 00:14:30,700
talk about Netflix stock and my 
investment in it, I have a 

280
00:14:30,700 --> 00:14:34,700
fairly large investment in it 
now as its recovered 100%, but 

281
00:14:34,700 --> 00:14:37,200
this has been a company that 
I've been incredibly bullish on,

282
00:14:37,200 --> 00:14:40,100
for a long period of time. 
I've explained the thesis on it,

283
00:14:40,400 --> 00:14:44,300
And from what I can tell, the 
way that I fill, as a Netflix 

284
00:14:44,300 --> 00:14:48,800
investor is I feel like I'm 
stranded on an island by myself.

285
00:14:49,100 --> 00:14:52,300
I feel completely alone and 
isolated it's like nobody else 

286
00:14:52,300 --> 00:14:54,800
is invested in Netflix. 
I'm the only one. 

287
00:14:54,800 --> 00:14:57,200
So if you're invested in 
Netflix, let me know. 

288
00:14:57,200 --> 00:15:00,200
Because so far, I have trouble 
finding anyone else. 

289
00:15:00,200 --> 00:15:03,400
That likes this investment 
regardless, I'm going to stick 

290
00:15:03,400 --> 00:15:05,600
with it. 
I think a Netflix will prove out

291
00:15:05,600 --> 00:15:09,500
to be a very profitable. 
Free, cash flow, positive 

292
00:15:09,700 --> 00:15:10,800
dominant. 
Benny. 

293
00:15:11,000 --> 00:15:14,500
And I think that things are 
working out that way the thesis 

294
00:15:14,500 --> 00:15:17,700
largely is working out over time
and this is one more step that 

295
00:15:17,700 --> 00:15:20,100
Netflix pivoted, which they 
frequently do that. 

296
00:15:20,100 --> 00:15:23,700
I think will be a net benefit. 
Now a lot of you in the u.s. 

297
00:15:23,700 --> 00:15:28,000
probably just received emails 
saying that now is the time you 

298
00:15:28,000 --> 00:15:30,100
can't keep sharing mom and dad's
password. 

299
00:15:30,100 --> 00:15:33,300
You got to get your own. 
And for a lot of people that's 

300
00:15:33,300 --> 00:15:35,700
frustrating, when you've 
previously gotten something for 

301
00:15:35,700 --> 00:15:37,900
free and now you have to pay for
it. 

302
00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:41,700
That's never a fun thing. 
So, A lot of the, the gut 

303
00:15:41,700 --> 00:15:44,400
reactions, the impulsive 
reactions of people having to 

304
00:15:44,408 --> 00:15:47,400
pay for Netflix. 
Now, after sharing it for free, 

305
00:15:47,400 --> 00:15:53,100
for 10 years is one of total 
anger, resentment people saying 

306
00:15:53,100 --> 00:15:55,400
that they're going to pirate 
pirate shows, right? 

307
00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:57,900
They're going to go online and 
torrent all the shows or they're

308
00:15:57,900 --> 00:16:00,900
going to, you know, never use 
Netflix again and they hope the 

309
00:16:00,900 --> 00:16:03,600
company is torpedoed and does 
terrible. 

310
00:16:03,600 --> 00:16:07,100
That's the reaction, I see 
online as an investor. 

311
00:16:07,100 --> 00:16:11,300
I look past that because I think
that Netflix With the price tag 

312
00:16:11,300 --> 00:16:15,600
associated with the passwords, 
it offers tremendous ongoing 

313
00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:18,200
value to its customers and its 
customers love it. 

314
00:16:18,400 --> 00:16:21,500
When I compare it against other 
streaming services, most 

315
00:16:21,500 --> 00:16:25,200
streaming services have two or 
three shows on it Paramount you 

316
00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:27,500
basically have Yellowstone with 
peacock. 

317
00:16:27,500 --> 00:16:32,100
You basically have the office 
and Parks and Rec with HBO Max 

318
00:16:32,100 --> 00:16:34,300
or just max. 
Now that's the only other one 

319
00:16:34,300 --> 00:16:36,100
that I think has a decent 
offering. 

320
00:16:36,500 --> 00:16:40,300
Netflix is the one that has all 
the shows on it has so much. 

321
00:16:40,400 --> 00:16:44,300
Content for both children and 
adults, adults, and it 

322
00:16:44,300 --> 00:16:47,600
continually refreshes the 
content at a much faster rate. 

323
00:16:47,800 --> 00:16:51,400
So when I compare the actual 
price tag with the offering, I 

324
00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:55,000
still think it has by far the 
best value proposition even when

325
00:16:55,000 --> 00:16:58,400
you're not able to share 
passwords, I've also maintained 

326
00:16:58,900 --> 00:17:02,800
that this password sharing 
Crackdown is going to be a 

327
00:17:02,800 --> 00:17:05,400
beneficial thing in the end for 
Netflix. 

328
00:17:05,700 --> 00:17:08,599
It'll go through a short term 
pain, but I think that Netflix 

329
00:17:08,599 --> 00:17:11,800
is going to absolutely come out.
On top because of this. 

330
00:17:12,099 --> 00:17:15,500
And I want to explain the math 
behind that very, very quickly. 

331
00:17:16,200 --> 00:17:18,800
This is so simple. 
Very simple. 

332
00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:24,099
Very simple logic to follow. 
We have the password owner, 

333
00:17:24,500 --> 00:17:25,900
right? 
This is the person paying for 

334
00:17:25,900 --> 00:17:28,500
the account. 
So, with a password owner and 

335
00:17:28,500 --> 00:17:33,800
then, we have a couple people 
will call them PS4 password. 

336
00:17:33,800 --> 00:17:36,900
Share. 
So we have, let's say three 

337
00:17:36,900 --> 00:17:41,700
people and these three are all 
PS, their password shares. 

338
00:17:42,300 --> 00:17:44,900
So right here, we have the owner
paying for the account maybe 

339
00:17:44,900 --> 00:17:47,100
fifteen Seventeen dollars a 
month. 

340
00:17:47,300 --> 00:17:49,600
And then we have three people 
that have the same logins that 

341
00:17:49,600 --> 00:17:51,300
they've been using and enjoying 
the account. 

342
00:17:51,800 --> 00:17:55,300
Let's say that this person is 
really unhappy with the prospect

343
00:17:55,300 --> 00:17:57,200
of paying an extra seven dollars
per month. 

344
00:17:57,200 --> 00:18:01,200
For each one of these shares. 
So this person out of resentment

345
00:18:01,200 --> 00:18:04,900
and anger and impulse, cancels 
their password, they canceled 

346
00:18:04,900 --> 00:18:06,800
it. 
Netflix account, it's no longer 

347
00:18:06,800 --> 00:18:09,300
active and they say take that 
Netflix. 

348
00:18:09,300 --> 00:18:11,500
I want to send you a message 
that this isn't right? 

349
00:18:12,500 --> 00:18:16,800
What happens in this situation, 
it's not just them, that loses 

350
00:18:16,800 --> 00:18:20,800
their Netflix account. 
It's everyone all four people in

351
00:18:20,800 --> 00:18:23,700
this situation, no longer have 
access to Netflix. 

352
00:18:24,100 --> 00:18:28,400
Now, in my opinion for people 
individuals, all living in 

353
00:18:28,400 --> 00:18:31,800
different places that have all 
been enjoying Netflix for years,

354
00:18:32,200 --> 00:18:36,500
suddenly not having access to 
it, do I Leave that at no point 

355
00:18:36,500 --> 00:18:39,900
in the future, none of them will
ever sign up for Netflix again. 

356
00:18:40,400 --> 00:18:44,000
No, I don't, I think at some 
point in the future, one of them

357
00:18:44,000 --> 00:18:47,000
is going to sign up. 
In fact, I'm willing to bet that

358
00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:50,000
at least two of them will and if
just two of them sign up, then 

359
00:18:50,000 --> 00:18:52,200
the amount of Netflix 
subscribers has doubled. 

360
00:18:52,200 --> 00:18:55,600
So ultimately, I don't see how 
this can't be a net benefit for 

361
00:18:55,600 --> 00:19:00,100
Netflix because as password 
owners canceled their accounts, 

362
00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:03,700
it leaves so many more people 
that now no longer have access 

363
00:19:03,700 --> 00:19:06,700
to Netflix that are Now, 
prospective customers of the 

364
00:19:06,700 --> 00:19:08,900
company. 
So looking at the password, 

365
00:19:08,900 --> 00:19:12,900
Crackdown the simple math, the 
simple logic shows that this is 

366
00:19:12,900 --> 00:19:16,200
going to be a success. 
Moreover, we have Netflix, which

367
00:19:16,200 --> 00:19:19,500
is a data driven company that 
has tested this in multiple 

368
00:19:19,500 --> 00:19:22,600
countries in South America, and 
in Canada. 

369
00:19:22,900 --> 00:19:26,800
So they've already ran extensive
testing on this and have proven 

370
00:19:26,800 --> 00:19:29,600
out the thesis that this is 
going to be a net benefit. 

371
00:19:29,900 --> 00:19:32,800
They're not dummies that are 
going to torpedo their business 

372
00:19:32,800 --> 00:19:35,900
with this move. 
So I think Overwhelmingly. 

373
00:19:36,200 --> 00:19:39,200
Even though it does feel a 
little risky and a little scary 

374
00:19:39,600 --> 00:19:42,200
because it might cause some bad 
blood with some customers. 

375
00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:45,800
I really think that this is over
all going to benefit Netflix as 

376
00:19:45,800 --> 00:19:48,100
a company. 
Now let's go ahead and read the 

377
00:19:48,100 --> 00:19:51,500
news because we actually have 
some data here from third-party 

378
00:19:51,600 --> 00:19:54,000
analysis. 
It says that according to this 

379
00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:56,900
third party analysis, so this is
not official data. 

380
00:19:57,100 --> 00:20:00,700
This is third party data 
analysis websites that try to 

381
00:20:00,700 --> 00:20:03,500
gain insights on this. 
They say that fewer Netflix 

382
00:20:03,500 --> 00:20:06,500
subscribers in the US and you 
Okay, are churning or leaving 

383
00:20:06,500 --> 00:20:09,200
Netflix compared with 
subscribers in Canada. 

384
00:20:09,800 --> 00:20:15,200
So u.s. people are canceling at 
a lesser rate than in Canada 

385
00:20:15,500 --> 00:20:17,900
where the password Sharon 
Crackdown rolled out earlier. 

386
00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:20,200
According to Market Research. 
Yep. 

387
00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:24,100
It data where the they've been 
tracking the launch, this Trends

388
00:20:24,100 --> 00:20:25,700
suggest that Netflix is 
management. 

389
00:20:25,700 --> 00:20:29,000
Quote, has been able to 
successfully improve the user 

390
00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:32,300
experience and communication 
relative to their initial 

391
00:20:32,300 --> 00:20:34,300
rollout. 
Remember Netflix wanted to 

392
00:20:34,300 --> 00:20:35,900
delay? 
The release Out in the u.s. so 

393
00:20:35,900 --> 00:20:38,200
they can improve it. 
It seems like those minor 

394
00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:41,000
changes made a big difference 
because people in the US are 

395
00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:45,100
canceling at a much slower rate.
Another interesting trend is 

396
00:20:45,100 --> 00:20:49,100
that new plan signups have 
increased in the US, as a result

397
00:20:49,100 --> 00:20:52,000
of the clamp down. 
On account sharing, Netflix is 

398
00:20:52,000 --> 00:20:55,000
giving account holders. 
The option to pay to add 

399
00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:58,100
additional users to their 
existing plans, but it appears 

400
00:20:58,100 --> 00:21:02,800
that more us users instead are 
opting to set up new accounts of

401
00:21:02,800 --> 00:21:06,900
their own at least compared with
the Nadine users who quote maybe

402
00:21:06,900 --> 00:21:10,200
most generous with their plans. 
In terms of adding other paid 

403
00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:14,300
users. 
This is really funny to me, the 

404
00:21:14,300 --> 00:21:18,000
Canadian users are more generous
with sharing their accounts, 

405
00:21:18,300 --> 00:21:22,000
then the u.s. users. 
So we actually have official 

406
00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:25,600
certified data here from 
third-party analyst data 

407
00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:29,200
aggregators that are saying that
literally Canadians are nicer 

408
00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:33,600
than u.s. when the US citizens 
have to pay more to share their 

409
00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:34,800
account. 
They say, you know what? 

410
00:21:35,100 --> 00:21:37,300
Go get your own. 
I'm not paying an extra seven 

411
00:21:37,300 --> 00:21:39,400
dollars per month. 
For you go, get your own account

412
00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:41,900
and Canada. 
They just add on the extra, 

413
00:21:41,900 --> 00:21:43,900
seven dollars a month and pay 
for the person using the 

414
00:21:43,900 --> 00:21:46,000
account. 
So we have actual data there, 

415
00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:49,000
that Canadians are nicer than 
US, citizens signs of the 

416
00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:50,900
initial success. 
With the broader password 

417
00:21:50,900 --> 00:21:54,000
sharing Crackdown seem to have 
helped Netflix talk recently 

418
00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:57,000
with shares up 9.5 percent in 
the past two full trading 

419
00:21:57,000 --> 00:21:59,600
sessions. 
So this data is come out. 

420
00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:03,000
It's helped out the stock and 
Netflix still is headed in the 

421
00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:05,800
green even today. 
It's up a little Bit it's up to 

422
00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:08,900
almost 400 dollars per share and
where I believe Netflix will be 

423
00:22:08,900 --> 00:22:11,600
over the next couple of years. 
I think the stocks going to be 

424
00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:15,000
at 700 to 800 dollars per share.
So I think we're going to see it

425
00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:17,900
double again because of the cash
flows that it has. 

426
00:22:17,900 --> 00:22:20,500
I think the company will 
exercise much more operating 

427
00:22:20,500 --> 00:22:22,400
leverage than we have priced 
into the stock. 

428
00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:27,200
But that's a little bit of a, an
outsider thesis time will only 

429
00:22:27,200 --> 00:22:29,900
tell how good the company 
actually does for right now. 

430
00:22:29,900 --> 00:22:32,300
I'm still holding my shares. 
Now, moving on, we have Mark 

431
00:22:32,300 --> 00:22:34,900
mahaney with his three Tech 
stock picks. 

432
00:22:35,100 --> 00:22:37,300
That evening star the best 
investments for this year. 

433
00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:39,800
Let's go ahead and dive into 
what he has to say that it's 

434
00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:43,100
going through first is this 
reals monetization they 

435
00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:46,400
successfully. 
This first one is meta borrowed 

436
00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:48,700
from or stole from Tick-Tock 
second is. 

437
00:22:48,700 --> 00:22:50,700
They've got this, click to 
message product that's out in 

438
00:22:50,700 --> 00:22:54,400
the market that's doing well, 10
billion Avenue Revenue, run rate

439
00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:56,400
and third is I think they've 
just been able to recapture a 

440
00:22:56,400 --> 00:22:59,100
lot of the advertising signal 
that they lost when Apple went 

441
00:22:59,100 --> 00:23:03,400
through its privacy changes. 
So, you're going to have a nice 

442
00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:05,600
recovery in a revenue growth as 
You go through the year. 

443
00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:07,900
It's already started to 
accelerate actually faster than 

444
00:23:07,900 --> 00:23:10,300
any of the other AD platforms 
because of these products like 

445
00:23:10,300 --> 00:23:12,700
those changing their name to 
Metta the wrong move. 

446
00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:15,300
Yes. 
I actually think it was and I 

447
00:23:15,300 --> 00:23:16,700
think there is one of those 
things that they're going to 

448
00:23:16,700 --> 00:23:18,700
regret. 
I think they already do regret 

449
00:23:18,700 --> 00:23:19,800
it. 
But yes, it will. 

450
00:23:20,300 --> 00:23:25,000
If you were to talk to employees
of meta or Mark Zuckerberg, I 

451
00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:27,300
don't think you'd say that it 
was the wrong move because 

452
00:23:27,300 --> 00:23:31,700
Facebook had it had a drag. 
It just drag down other brands 

453
00:23:31,900 --> 00:23:34,800
if they tried making Oculus and 
it was tied to Facebook. 

454
00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:37,600
A lot of people, their image of 
Facebook is that it's kind of 

455
00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:40,500
old and outdated. 
So they felt like it was this 

456
00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:44,600
brand name a drag and they 
needed to get away from that and

457
00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:47,100
meta. 
Resembled a fresh start. 

458
00:23:47,100 --> 00:23:50,600
Something new. 
And the focus on the metaverse 

459
00:23:50,600 --> 00:23:54,100
was just part of that, but they 
would say the bigger more 

460
00:23:54,100 --> 00:23:58,000
important thing was moving away 
from the Facebook name. 

461
00:23:58,100 --> 00:24:00,100
They actually had a term for it 
internally. 

462
00:24:00,500 --> 00:24:03,300
I think it was called the 
Facebook brand tax write, it was

463
00:24:03,300 --> 00:24:06,100
a tax on everything they did. 
Did it just slowed it down a 

464
00:24:06,108 --> 00:24:09,700
little bit? 
Was I Thinkin also investors, 

465
00:24:09,700 --> 00:24:12,100
kind of told them that too 
because the lot of the market 

466
00:24:12,100 --> 00:24:13,900
cap was taken out yet. 
A lot of people sold the stock 

467
00:24:13,900 --> 00:24:17,100
last year for good reasons, but 
one was this excess focus on the

468
00:24:17,100 --> 00:24:19,900
metaverse, they should be 
investing in a metaverse but 

469
00:24:19,900 --> 00:24:22,500
maybe more to the tune of five 
billion rather than 15 billion 

470
00:24:22,500 --> 00:24:24,400
investors would love to see them
cut back on that. 

471
00:24:24,408 --> 00:24:26,600
If they announce that at the 
shareholder meeting today would 

472
00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:29,800
be a positive. 
If when I looked at this in 

473
00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:33,500
2021, Facebook was much higher 
than it was today or it is 

474
00:24:33,500 --> 00:24:36,300
today. 
They were going headfirst into 

475
00:24:36,300 --> 00:24:39,400
the metaverse and the metaverse 
was Thing, incredibly unproven 

476
00:24:39,700 --> 00:24:42,000
and I don't like it. 
When companies spend an enormous

477
00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:46,000
amount of their cash flows in 
something with an unknown return

478
00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:48,800
on Capital, you're basically 
throwing tens of billions of 

479
00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:51,000
dollars into something. 
The return you're going to get, 

480
00:24:51,100 --> 00:24:52,500
who knows? 
Maybe it will be good. 

481
00:24:52,500 --> 00:24:55,700
Maybe not in most cases, these 
type of trendy things, like the 

482
00:24:55,708 --> 00:24:58,700
metaverse do not good, they 
don't give good returns, they 

483
00:24:58,700 --> 00:25:03,200
usually don't. 
So I saw that as a pet project 

484
00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:05,600
of Mark Zuckerberg. 
Something, he personally liked 

485
00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:08,800
that he was using an enormous 
amount of The funds of the 

486
00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:12,300
company to fund at the expense 
of the shareholders because they

487
00:25:12,300 --> 00:25:15,900
had no control in voting rights.
Now, Zuckerberg has said that, 

488
00:25:15,900 --> 00:25:18,900
he's he's cooling down on that a
little bit, he's focusing on 

489
00:25:18,900 --> 00:25:20,900
costs. 
He's doing more things to appeal

490
00:25:20,900 --> 00:25:23,700
to Wall Street because his 
company got in trouble. 

491
00:25:23,900 --> 00:25:27,400
The stock price going down, 70% 
investors, being Furious. 

492
00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:30,200
That was a wake-up call. 
So he pivoted hard. 

493
00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:33,400
The stock has recovered a bit 
but I agree. 

494
00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:36,600
I think that he focused way to 
much on the metaverse, he should

495
00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:40,200
have done that gradually. 
Not made it all of a sudden, the

496
00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:44,400
biggest Focus ever for Facebook 
announced that and change their 

497
00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:45,200
name back. 
Yes. 

498
00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:46,400
But I don't think that's going 
to happen. 

499
00:25:46,600 --> 00:25:48,600
I don't think so. 
Either, that would be too much 

500
00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:49,900
of an admission. 
Yes. 

501
00:25:50,300 --> 00:25:52,000
No new Coke for them. 
Yes. 

502
00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:52,800
That's right. 
What's number? 

503
00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:55,000
Two to Uber? 
You got three value cabalists 

504
00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:57,300
here so we like it $75 price 
Target. 

505
00:25:57,300 --> 00:25:59,700
First catalyst is they're going 
to reach finally Gap. 

506
00:25:59,700 --> 00:26:02,800
Earnings status. 
Going to start actually 

507
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:04,300
generating positive Gap. 
Earnings. 

508
00:26:04,300 --> 00:26:07,300
Secondly, as we think they'll 
start buying back stock and 

509
00:26:07,300 --> 00:26:09,800
third is Is that we think 
they'll finally reach the 

510
00:26:10,700 --> 00:26:13,100
metrics needed to be included in
the S&P 500. 

511
00:26:13,100 --> 00:26:16,000
And so I think sometime in 2024,
you can have a new addition, 

512
00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:18,400
it's going to be Uber normally, 
that's a good Catalyst for 

513
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:20,600
stocks. 
Well, that's an interesting 

514
00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:22,500
pick. 
I have not looked at Uber for 

515
00:26:22,500 --> 00:26:24,400
some time. 
Let me bring it up on qual term 

516
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:25,700
here. 
Let's go. 

517
00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:28,100
Take a look. 
I want to see what, who buries 

518
00:26:28,100 --> 00:26:31,400
up to in the financials. 
So we look at over here, the 

519
00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:34,200
company's Revenue has flattened 
out a little bit, that's fine. 

520
00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:37,600
We look at the cash flows and it
is headed. 

521
00:26:37,800 --> 00:26:40,200
Profitability. 
I like seeing this trend line, 

522
00:26:40,500 --> 00:26:43,400
we see years of it being - 
they're competing, they're going

523
00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:46,800
for market share right there. 
A company that's trying to grow 

524
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:49,600
into cash, flow positive and 
then right around here. 

525
00:26:49,900 --> 00:26:54,200
Remember the CEO of uber saying 
we have to focus solely on 

526
00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:56,800
profits, right? 
They did the profitability 

527
00:26:57,000 --> 00:26:59,000
earnings call similar to 
Salesforce. 

528
00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:01,600
When that happened, investors 
pay attention. 

529
00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:05,100
When a company says, the leaders
say, they are solely focused on 

530
00:27:05,100 --> 00:27:08,400
generating real profits. 
Now that changes the perspective

531
00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:11,700
for the investor and you can see
that they're having quarters 

532
00:27:11,700 --> 00:27:14,300
with positive, cash flow. 
We factor in stock based 

533
00:27:14,300 --> 00:27:16,900
competent. 
Look quite as pretty as I still 

534
00:27:16,900 --> 00:27:19,700
have some of that. 
But even adjusting for 

535
00:27:19,700 --> 00:27:22,600
stock-based compensation, 
they're still leaking into 

536
00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:25,900
profitability, even adjusting 
for stock-based complex quarter.

537
00:27:25,900 --> 00:27:28,200
They did eighty million dollars 
of stock based compost. 

538
00:27:28,500 --> 00:27:30,700
Now, I haven't done any Research
into how much operating 

539
00:27:30,700 --> 00:27:32,400
leverage. 
This business has how much 

540
00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:36,400
profitability that you can 
really grow, but at a 76 billion

541
00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:39,200
dollar market cap, Company. 
That's barely becoming 

542
00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:43,900
profitable for me. 
This is a long shot bed, but 

543
00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:46,700
that is the type of companies 
that Mark mahaney goes into, he 

544
00:27:46,700 --> 00:27:49,900
does ones that sometimes they 
fail, sometimes they do poorly 

545
00:27:50,100 --> 00:27:52,100
but in many cases, they can 
double or triple. 

546
00:27:52,700 --> 00:27:55,400
That's number three, Amazon, 
Triple trough thesis. 

547
00:27:55,400 --> 00:27:58,800
We think the stock right here is
at a trough multiple trough 

548
00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:00,600
margins and trough Revenue 
growth. 

549
00:28:00,700 --> 00:28:03,000
If we're right on that, you 
could have a material re-rating 

550
00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:05,200
in a stock gets really 
underperform for almost three 

551
00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:10,400
years. 
Let me ask Amazon number 3 and 

552
00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:14,200
the triple trough thesis is his 
thesis on it. 

553
00:28:14,500 --> 00:28:16,200
He thinks it's the slowest 
Revenue. 

554
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:18,800
Growth is going to be Revenue 
will re-accelerate. 

555
00:28:19,100 --> 00:28:20,700
He thinks it's the lowest 
margins. 

556
00:28:20,700 --> 00:28:24,100
It's going to be the margins 
will improve and he thinks that 

557
00:28:24,100 --> 00:28:26,500
it's the the lowest 
profitability. 

558
00:28:26,600 --> 00:28:28,300
The free cash flows will improve
as well. 

559
00:28:28,900 --> 00:28:31,900
So I agree with them on Amazon. 
Of course, I'm very bullish on 

560
00:28:31,900 --> 00:28:34,000
this company. 
Outside of Netflix. 

561
00:28:34,000 --> 00:28:37,600
This is my largest holding in 
the story fund if Amazon. 

562
00:28:37,700 --> 00:28:41,100
On has a couple good quarters. 
If this company goes up, 20, 30 

563
00:28:41,100 --> 00:28:43,500
%. 
I'll be back in the green. 

564
00:28:43,500 --> 00:28:45,500
In this portfolio. 
I'll be doing well. 

565
00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:49,400
So that's a three pics, Uber 
meta, and Amazon. 

566
00:28:49,900 --> 00:28:52,700
I agree with them on Amazon. 
Certainly, Uber, I think is an 

567
00:28:52,700 --> 00:28:55,500
interesting one and meta 
overalls, a safer bet, but not a

568
00:28:55,500 --> 00:28:58,300
company, I'm looking at getting 
back into, I don't love social 

569
00:28:58,300 --> 00:29:01,000
media companies. 
So that's all for this episode. 

570
00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:02,600
I hope you enjoyed and I'll see 
you in the next one.