1
00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:02,000
Welcome everyone. 
Thank you for joining on this 

2
00:00:02,000 --> 00:00:03,200
video. 
We're going to be talking about 

3
00:00:03,200 --> 00:00:05,400
this, incredible day. 
We had today in the market. 

4
00:00:05,600 --> 00:00:10,000
If you weren't paying attention,
we had a hugely positive Green 

5
00:00:10,000 --> 00:00:12,100
Day. 
The NASDAQ is up 3.4 one 

6
00:00:12,100 --> 00:00:15,500
percent, the S&P 500 closed. 
One point eight, nine percent in

7
00:00:15,508 --> 00:00:18,600
the Grain and even the Dow Jones
is up one point, one seven 

8
00:00:18,600 --> 00:00:20,900
percent. 
But you notice that the gains 

9
00:00:20,900 --> 00:00:23,900
were tilted towards the NASDAQ, 
which has been beaten up the 

10
00:00:23,900 --> 00:00:26,100
most, and this is pretty 
incredible. 

11
00:00:26,200 --> 00:00:29,300
This is like a relief rally a 
reversal of trend. 

12
00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:32,400
We've been Trending down and 
recent history in the NASDAQ, 

13
00:00:32,400 --> 00:00:36,300
the S&P 500, and the Dow Jones, 
but especially the QQQ and these

14
00:00:36,308 --> 00:00:39,000
type of companies. 
But now we see a huge reversal 

15
00:00:39,000 --> 00:00:43,200
and Trend 3.41 percent green. 
And one day is a pretty big 

16
00:00:43,200 --> 00:00:47,200
green day and it's even more. 
So with the type of companies 

17
00:00:47,200 --> 00:00:49,600
that I hold in my portfolio, the
story fund. 

18
00:00:49,600 --> 00:00:52,500
If you're new to the channel, I 
follow this growth portfolio, 

19
00:00:52,500 --> 00:00:54,700
week by week and give complete 
transparency. 

20
00:00:54,700 --> 00:00:58,800
And how it's doing today was a 
special day for the story fund. 

21
00:00:58,800 --> 00:01:01,700
It is up Point three five 
percent. 

22
00:01:01,900 --> 00:01:05,400
This is a huge Green Day, one of
the most green days in the 

23
00:01:05,400 --> 00:01:07,100
history of this entire 
portfolio. 

24
00:01:07,500 --> 00:01:10,700
Overall, we're still struggling 
because this type of portfolio, 

25
00:01:10,700 --> 00:01:13,800
got beat down pretty bad. 
Over the past three months, it 

26
00:01:13,808 --> 00:01:15,200
has a lot of these tech 
companies. 

27
00:01:15,500 --> 00:01:19,100
Netflix got beat up companies 
like Spotify and Salesforce and 

28
00:01:19,100 --> 00:01:23,200
Adobe atlassian, twilio, these 
type of companies, all got beat 

29
00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:24,800
up pretty hard over the past 
three months. 

30
00:01:25,200 --> 00:01:27,200
But then, we have this crazy day
today. 

31
00:01:27,200 --> 00:01:29,000
Five point three, five percent 
in the green. 

32
00:01:29,900 --> 00:01:34,100
Netflix was up ten point four 
six percent Spotify was up 13 

33
00:01:34,100 --> 00:01:36,400
percent. 
These are crazy numbers that 

34
00:01:36,400 --> 00:01:37,200
happen. 
Today's. 

35
00:01:37,300 --> 00:01:40,100
So anytime this type of thing 
happens where we have one big 

36
00:01:40,100 --> 00:01:41,900
green day after a lot of 
selling. 

37
00:01:42,200 --> 00:01:45,100
This is where we have a lot of 
speculation, a lot of opinions 

38
00:01:45,100 --> 00:01:47,400
on what this means for the 
overall market and I want to 

39
00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:49,000
discuss it and give my thoughts 
on it. 

40
00:01:49,100 --> 00:01:50,200
So we're going to be going over 
that. 

41
00:01:50,200 --> 00:01:52,900
I'll be giving an update on a 
lot of different Holdings in the

42
00:01:52,908 --> 00:01:54,500
story fund. 
What I think is going on with 

43
00:01:54,500 --> 00:01:57,100
them right now and we also have 
one other news item that I want 

44
00:01:57,100 --> 00:01:59,200
to mention. 
Remember that Apple analysts 

45
00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:04,800
that came on CNBC June of last 
year and he said, while wearing 

46
00:02:04,800 --> 00:02:06,900
are pods. 
The Apple was grossly. 

47
00:02:06,900 --> 00:02:10,199
Overvalued. 
It was overvalued by over 30%. 

48
00:02:10,300 --> 00:02:14,800
Apple was at the time trading at
125 and he said it was worth 

49
00:02:14,800 --> 00:02:18,000
ninety dollars a share. 
He said, Apple had too good of a

50
00:02:18,008 --> 00:02:21,200
year in 2021. 
They are just having too good of

51
00:02:21,200 --> 00:02:24,200
a year and they had too good of 
a year in 2020 and they pulled 

52
00:02:24,200 --> 00:02:27,300
for demand. 
And he said that, you know, this

53
00:02:27,300 --> 00:02:29,600
this next year is going to be 
really tough for Apple. 

54
00:02:30,400 --> 00:02:34,000
Well, I disagreed with him. 
I posted a reaction video to 

55
00:02:34,000 --> 00:02:36,500
this and I said, hey, I think 
this guy's dead wrong. 

56
00:02:36,500 --> 00:02:38,700
I think his thesis is wrong. 
Here's the reasons why. 

57
00:02:38,700 --> 00:02:42,000
And it turns out that he just 
appeared back on CNBC just 

58
00:02:42,000 --> 00:02:44,300
today. 
So I want to take a look at his 

59
00:02:44,300 --> 00:02:47,000
new price target of apple and 
his thoughts on the company 

60
00:02:47,000 --> 00:02:48,600
going forward. 
So we have a lot to jump into in

61
00:02:48,600 --> 00:02:52,200
this episode as always and just 
a reminder, if you haven't 

62
00:02:52,200 --> 00:02:54,800
already, you should check out 
the patreon associated with this

63
00:02:54,800 --> 00:02:57,300
channel. 
Most patreons are just like the 

64
00:02:57,300 --> 00:02:59,800
community Discord and maybe some
exclusive content. 

65
00:03:00,200 --> 00:03:02,200
We offer that as well on this 
channel. 

66
00:03:02,200 --> 00:03:06,100
I do hour-long amas weekly as 
well as exclusive episodes. 

67
00:03:06,300 --> 00:03:08,600
We have a community Discord. 
That's for patreon members. 

68
00:03:08,600 --> 00:03:11,300
It has over 2,000 active 
members, but in addition to 

69
00:03:11,300 --> 00:03:14,600
that, I want to remind you. 
You also get access to Quality 

70
00:03:14,600 --> 00:03:17,200
from this website at no 
additional charge. 

71
00:03:17,400 --> 00:03:20,500
There's no add-ons. 
There's no bait and switch. 

72
00:03:20,600 --> 00:03:24,000
It's not something separate. 
It is totally included with the 

73
00:03:24,000 --> 00:03:27,100
base patreon level and call term
is a suite of investing tools to

74
00:03:27,100 --> 00:03:28,500
help you become a better 
investor. 

75
00:03:28,700 --> 00:03:29,800
One of them is called from 
inside. 

76
00:03:29,900 --> 00:03:32,800
It's which gives you at a glance
all the fundamentals of any 

77
00:03:32,800 --> 00:03:35,000
company. 
I can type in apple and see 

78
00:03:35,000 --> 00:03:38,400
their revenue and ibadah and 
free cash flow net income, their

79
00:03:38,400 --> 00:03:41,000
balance sheet, their debt, their
dividends their cash, their 

80
00:03:41,000 --> 00:03:42,600
shares outstanding, their 
earnings per share. 

81
00:03:42,600 --> 00:03:46,400
Going way back to 1996, I can 
see a ton of information at a 

82
00:03:46,400 --> 00:03:49,000
glance as well as the valuation 
metrics. 

83
00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:52,000
The margins, the growth, you 
know, the dividend summary all 

84
00:03:52,000 --> 00:03:54,300
of this stuff very easily on one
page. 

85
00:03:54,300 --> 00:03:57,600
It works for any of the publicly
traded companies, any of them on

86
00:03:57,600 --> 00:04:00,800
us exchanges. 
So this tool Is included as part

87
00:04:00,800 --> 00:04:03,200
of the patreon. 
You also get access to Quality 

88
00:04:03,200 --> 00:04:04,800
from track. 
This is a different part of this

89
00:04:04,800 --> 00:04:07,100
tool. 
This gives you information about

90
00:04:07,100 --> 00:04:09,800
your portfolio, your dividend 
growth over time, and this 

91
00:04:09,800 --> 00:04:11,900
actually does projections on 
your upcoming dividends over the

92
00:04:11,900 --> 00:04:14,300
next year. 
We're building all of this out. 

93
00:04:14,300 --> 00:04:17,300
So again, qual term track called
from Insight, everything they do

94
00:04:17,300 --> 00:04:20,000
at this website, including the 
mobile app, that's on IOS. 

95
00:04:20,000 --> 00:04:22,900
And Android are included as part
of the patreon, no additional 

96
00:04:22,900 --> 00:04:25,900
charges, no upselling, no ads, 
nothing like that. 

97
00:04:25,900 --> 00:04:29,000
And we are working on something 
right now that I think is going 

98
00:04:29,000 --> 00:04:30,800
to be awesome. 
Going to be released probably 

99
00:04:30,800 --> 00:04:33,000
within a couple weeks called the
dip finder. 

100
00:04:33,000 --> 00:04:35,800
And that's gonna be another big 
segment on this website. 

101
00:04:35,900 --> 00:04:38,700
Another big tab with. 
I think a really cool tool. 

102
00:04:38,700 --> 00:04:40,500
So, I'll explain that more in 
the future. 

103
00:04:40,600 --> 00:04:42,600
But, if you haven't already, try
out the patreon. 

104
00:04:42,600 --> 00:04:43,900
There's a link in the 
description. 

105
00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:45,400
All right. 
Now, having said that, let's go 

106
00:04:45,400 --> 00:04:47,700
ahead and jump into the 
portfolio and do an update. 

107
00:04:47,800 --> 00:04:49,900
For those of you new to the 
channel, this is called the 

108
00:04:49,900 --> 00:04:52,100
story fund. 
It is my growth portfolio. 

109
00:04:52,400 --> 00:04:55,300
I track it with total 
transparency week by week, and I

110
00:04:55,308 --> 00:04:57,100
Benchmark it against the S&P 
500. 

111
00:04:57,100 --> 00:05:01,200
So, if you're interested in 
seeing an Irving the outcome of 

112
00:05:01,200 --> 00:05:03,200
a real portfolio with real 
money. 

113
00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:07,600
Over a long period of time to 
see if this can work a stock 

114
00:05:07,600 --> 00:05:10,400
picking can work. 
And I can invest in long-term 

115
00:05:10,400 --> 00:05:13,800
compounding companies like 
Netflix and Amazon, and Google 

116
00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:17,000
and Spotify and Salesforce, and 
Adobe these type of 

117
00:05:17,000 --> 00:05:20,000
subscription-based. 
I think, incredibly good, 

118
00:05:20,000 --> 00:05:23,200
compound and companies, then you
can subscribe to the channel and

119
00:05:23,200 --> 00:05:25,000
follow along for free. 
I'll be doing updates every 

120
00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:28,700
single week. 
The portfolio, overall, I think 

121
00:05:28,700 --> 00:05:31,200
it's had a tough time. 
I'm right the past three months,

122
00:05:31,500 --> 00:05:35,200
there's been this crazy sell-off
in these high-growth names every

123
00:05:35,200 --> 00:05:38,500
type of tech company. 
And Cloud company has basically 

124
00:05:38,500 --> 00:05:41,200
been re-rated and the market has
not like them. 

125
00:05:41,300 --> 00:05:44,300
The market has been stuffing 
money into energy companies and,

126
00:05:44,600 --> 00:05:47,800
and financials and commodities 
and different places outside of 

127
00:05:47,808 --> 00:05:49,800
these tech companies that had a 
big run up. 

128
00:05:50,100 --> 00:05:53,800
So over the past three months, 
I've given up all of my games. 

129
00:05:53,900 --> 00:05:57,800
I went from being in the green 
by 25,000 dollars to now just 

130
00:05:57,800 --> 00:06:01,300
being in the green by $1300. 
And that's painful, that's 

131
00:06:01,300 --> 00:06:03,500
something that's mentally 
difficult to deal with. 

132
00:06:03,900 --> 00:06:06,600
But not really, if you have the 
right perspective, if you have 

133
00:06:06,600 --> 00:06:10,200
the long-term perspective, I own
just as many shares in the 

134
00:06:10,200 --> 00:06:13,300
companies that I initially 
bought as I did before and the 

135
00:06:13,300 --> 00:06:15,800
sell-off, gave me the 
opportunity to buy more heavily 

136
00:06:15,900 --> 00:06:18,000
into a lot of these companies 
that I already love. 

137
00:06:18,300 --> 00:06:21,700
I love Netflix as a company and 
an investment after the 

138
00:06:21,700 --> 00:06:23,400
sell-off. 
I bought more of this company, 

139
00:06:23,700 --> 00:06:27,400
the same thing with Spotify, the
same thing with, with all these 

140
00:06:27,400 --> 00:06:30,100
companies, with igv, all these 
cloud, Knees. 

141
00:06:30,200 --> 00:06:32,100
I increase my position sizing 
that as well. 

142
00:06:32,200 --> 00:06:35,400
The sell-off was an opportunity 
for me so even though I'm in the

143
00:06:35,400 --> 00:06:40,200
green by $1300, I look at this 
as an opportunity to gain, way 

144
00:06:40,200 --> 00:06:42,200
more share count. 
So that when we do have another 

145
00:06:42,200 --> 00:06:44,500
run up, I have a lot more 
starting off. 

146
00:06:44,500 --> 00:06:46,400
So I think it's a good thing in 
the end. 

147
00:06:46,500 --> 00:06:50,700
Now the portfolio is actually 
pretty bad like a week ago. 

148
00:06:50,800 --> 00:06:53,600
A week ago, it was even further 
in the red by seven thousand 

149
00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:56,300
dollars. 
I was in the red, so being $1300

150
00:06:56,300 --> 00:06:58,000
in the green today is pretty 
remarkable. 

151
00:06:58,400 --> 00:07:01,800
The past day. 
This Just today we're up five 

152
00:07:01,800 --> 00:07:05,500
point three percent so we 
outperform even the QQQ by a 

153
00:07:05,500 --> 00:07:08,300
large degree. 
These type of companies really 

154
00:07:08,300 --> 00:07:11,200
pop when the market is back in 
pull mode, right? 

155
00:07:11,200 --> 00:07:13,700
When when things are going good 
in the markets going up, I think

156
00:07:13,700 --> 00:07:15,300
these companies will make a lot 
of ground. 

157
00:07:15,700 --> 00:07:17,600
Now, let's go ahead and look at 
the performance of it. 

158
00:07:17,600 --> 00:07:21,600
Overall, against the S&P 500. 
I tracked this on this chart 

159
00:07:21,600 --> 00:07:25,100
here and you can see the, the 
story fund is in blue. 

160
00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:27,200
So my portfolio is the Blue 
Line. 

161
00:07:27,500 --> 00:07:31,000
The S&P 500 is in red, and I 
show this Us again, every single

162
00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:33,800
week you can see the performance
of this, and I plan on doing so,

163
00:07:33,800 --> 00:07:37,900
until the end of 2025. 
Now, you can see that the past 

164
00:07:37,900 --> 00:07:40,900
two months, the performance 
suffered in my portfolio, we had

165
00:07:40,900 --> 00:07:43,700
Netflix trending downwards. 
And then we had the huge 

166
00:07:43,700 --> 00:07:46,900
sell-off after the bad quarter. 
We have Ali Baba, having a tough

167
00:07:46,900 --> 00:07:48,500
time. 
We have controversies with 

168
00:07:48,500 --> 00:07:52,500
Spotify that company selling off
and it traded down to negative 

169
00:07:52,500 --> 00:07:54,900
seven percent. 
So, I was actually pretty well 

170
00:07:54,900 --> 00:07:58,500
in the red and then in just the 
past couple days, this rally put

171
00:07:58,500 --> 00:08:02,100
me back in the green Plus 
Percent against the S&P 500 at 

172
00:08:02,100 --> 00:08:06,200
plus Seventeen percent. 
So the S&P 500 is still in the 

173
00:08:06,200 --> 00:08:09,000
lead right now but the Gap was 
closed. 

174
00:08:09,000 --> 00:08:12,200
Quite a bit over, just the past 
couple of days and I think this 

175
00:08:12,200 --> 00:08:15,800
gives you an idea of how quickly
things can change this much area

176
00:08:15,800 --> 00:08:20,300
covered in just a few days. 
If the market decides look, we 

177
00:08:20,300 --> 00:08:22,200
sold off too much. 
These type of growth companies 

178
00:08:22,200 --> 00:08:25,700
have just been oversold. 
We're not really worried about 

179
00:08:25,700 --> 00:08:28,100
the whole inflation thing or 
that, you know, the raising 

180
00:08:28,100 --> 00:08:29,700
interest rates that's really not
as big of a deal. 

181
00:08:29,800 --> 00:08:32,700
Deal, which the market could, 
they could shrug it off at some 

182
00:08:32,700 --> 00:08:34,799
point. 
These are the type of companies 

183
00:08:34,799 --> 00:08:37,900
that I think investors will want
to pile money back into the 

184
00:08:37,900 --> 00:08:42,700
market swings from one narrative
to the other, the pendulum sways

185
00:08:42,700 --> 00:08:45,700
from one side to the other and 
in many cases it goes to 

186
00:08:45,700 --> 00:08:48,900
extreme. 
It'll go too far to the side of 

187
00:08:48,900 --> 00:08:51,200
fear and that's where we're 
headed. 

188
00:08:51,300 --> 00:08:54,300
The market has been extremely 
fearful selling out of every 

189
00:08:54,300 --> 00:08:56,800
tech company, nothing 
story-driven, nothing's 

190
00:08:56,800 --> 00:08:59,000
narrative-driven, nothing about 
the future. 

191
00:08:59,900 --> 00:09:03,700
Once the Kimberley Clark's the 
Procter & Gamble's that most 

192
00:09:03,700 --> 00:09:06,600
defensive companies you can get 
right now that have cash flows 

193
00:09:06,600 --> 00:09:08,600
right now. 
Today that's what people want 

194
00:09:08,600 --> 00:09:11,600
right now because there's a Fed 
there's interest rates going up.

195
00:09:11,600 --> 00:09:15,500
There might be inflation but the
pendulum will eventually swing 

196
00:09:15,700 --> 00:09:18,600
back to Greed mode. 
That will happen over time. 

197
00:09:18,900 --> 00:09:22,300
When that happens investors will
pull money out of there. 

198
00:09:22,700 --> 00:09:26,000
They're big mature, slow growing
energy companies and consumer 

199
00:09:26,000 --> 00:09:29,200
defensive companies and they 
want to get back into growth all

200
00:09:29,200 --> 00:09:30,800
7lb. 
Talking about Spotify, 

201
00:09:30,800 --> 00:09:34,000
dominating the world with audio 
and Netflix dominating. 

202
00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:36,600
The world was streaming this 
type of thing sways from one 

203
00:09:36,600 --> 00:09:40,000
direction to the other. 
So even though right now the 

204
00:09:40,000 --> 00:09:42,900
narrative is heavily suede 
towards the more defensive 

205
00:09:42,900 --> 00:09:45,900
companies in the S&P 500, I 
think the pendulum will 

206
00:09:45,900 --> 00:09:48,400
eventually swing backwards. 
I don't know when that will 

207
00:09:48,400 --> 00:09:50,900
happen. 
Whenever we have a big relief 

208
00:09:50,900 --> 00:09:54,100
rally, a trend reversal day like
today, where we've been selling 

209
00:09:54,100 --> 00:09:55,800
off for a while. 
And all of a sudden we have a 

210
00:09:55,800 --> 00:09:58,400
reverse of that Trend and a big 
update, this is when the 

211
00:09:58,400 --> 00:10:01,700
speculation happens. 
People go on TV and say, this is

212
00:10:01,700 --> 00:10:04,500
the bottom prepare for this huge
rally. 

213
00:10:04,700 --> 00:10:06,700
Yet, people saying the selling 
is not over, it's going to be 

214
00:10:06,700 --> 00:10:09,200
another 10%. 
The truth is, we don't know. 

215
00:10:09,600 --> 00:10:11,200
We don't know if this is the 
bottom. 

216
00:10:11,300 --> 00:10:14,600
If it's going to reverse Trend 
now we have no clue what I do 

217
00:10:14,600 --> 00:10:19,100
know is that these type of 
companies are way sold off 

218
00:10:19,100 --> 00:10:20,900
compared to what they were three
months ago. 

219
00:10:21,100 --> 00:10:23,600
They're way better value than 
where they were three months ago

220
00:10:24,000 --> 00:10:25,800
and there's way more upside with
them. 

221
00:10:25,800 --> 00:10:29,600
Now if you're looking to buy in 
the tech companies and cloud 

222
00:10:29,600 --> 00:10:32,200
cover, Companies and these type 
of scalable high growth 

223
00:10:32,200 --> 00:10:35,700
companies now is a much better 
time than three months ago. 

224
00:10:35,700 --> 00:10:38,900
So that's all we know. 
And I'm very personally 

225
00:10:38,900 --> 00:10:42,000
optimistic about the future with
this portfolio, I feel very 

226
00:10:42,000 --> 00:10:45,400
confident in my chances of still
having good gains over these 

227
00:10:45,400 --> 00:10:49,000
next couple, couple years 
because in reality, this has 

228
00:10:49,000 --> 00:10:51,700
been a pretty short time. 
One year is not a significant 

229
00:10:51,700 --> 00:10:54,000
amount of time and I don't think
we're out of the running yet. 

230
00:10:54,100 --> 00:10:57,600
Now, let's go ahead and jump in 
to this apple analysts that June

231
00:10:57,600 --> 00:11:01,400
of last year gave a cell rate 
For apple and said that it was 

232
00:11:01,400 --> 00:11:03,200
worth ninety dollars. 
A share when it was currently 

233
00:11:03,200 --> 00:11:06,400
trading at 125 hair, is my 
response video. 

234
00:11:06,400 --> 00:11:09,900
My reaction video to this 
analyst, his name's Pierre and 

235
00:11:09,900 --> 00:11:13,200
he covers companies like apple 
and Tesla and he called it in 

236
00:11:13,200 --> 00:11:15,600
with his bearish call on Apple 
wearing his are pods. 

237
00:11:16,200 --> 00:11:18,400
This is kind of what he said in 
my reaction at the time. 

238
00:11:18,400 --> 00:11:22,900
This was June of 2021, he's a 
demon polyethylene. 12 is 

239
00:11:22,900 --> 00:11:26,500
actually exceptionally strong. 
So what does that mean? 

240
00:11:26,500 --> 00:11:29,300
That means a phone in producing 
5G. 

241
00:11:29,800 --> 00:11:34,600
Return of the metal frame, on 
the case has introduced a lot of

242
00:11:34,800 --> 00:11:38,300
changes in, who can feel and a 
lot of innovation and has driven

243
00:11:38,300 --> 00:11:42,300
a lot, a lot of interest. 
And that's bringing forward 

244
00:11:42,300 --> 00:11:44,300
replacement. 
So a lot of people who normally 

245
00:11:44,300 --> 00:11:47,700
would have replaced their for 
next year actually, going to 

246
00:11:47,800 --> 00:11:52,300
replace it this year. 
This is always always the beer 

247
00:11:52,300 --> 00:11:54,100
case for Apple, for the past 10 
years. 

248
00:11:54,100 --> 00:11:56,700
This has been the bear case for 
Apple while they're doing so 

249
00:11:56,700 --> 00:11:58,800
good right now, they have so 
much Demand right now that they 

250
00:11:58,800 --> 00:12:02,400
can't, they Can't sustain this 
level of demand and to the next 

251
00:12:02,400 --> 00:12:04,800
year or the year after that's 
always the same thing. 

252
00:12:05,100 --> 00:12:09,300
He says that the problem with 
apple if this is the bear case 

253
00:12:09,300 --> 00:12:12,000
for Apple is they're doing too. 
Well, they're doing too well 

254
00:12:12,000 --> 00:12:13,700
right now. 
They selling too many phones and

255
00:12:13,700 --> 00:12:15,300
they're definitely not gonna be 
able to keep this up in the 

256
00:12:15,300 --> 00:12:17,700
future because people like their
products so much that they're 

257
00:12:17,700 --> 00:12:21,100
buying all of them now they 
won't, they won't need them next

258
00:12:21,100 --> 00:12:23,500
year. 
They call this polling demand 

259
00:12:23,500 --> 00:12:26,000
forward so you have demand in 
the future and you're pulling it

260
00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:28,100
forward to now. 
I think this is one of the 

261
00:12:28,100 --> 00:12:32,100
weakest arguments. 
For almost any company, the 

262
00:12:32,100 --> 00:12:34,900
polling demand for it. 
It can happen a little bit in 

263
00:12:34,900 --> 00:12:39,800
some very unique cases, but most
of the time a company that did 

264
00:12:39,800 --> 00:12:43,400
well, one year should continue 
to do well in two years into the

265
00:12:43,400 --> 00:12:45,500
future. 
And even if it has some times 

266
00:12:45,500 --> 00:12:48,000
where it goes through a little 
bit, less demand it evens out 

267
00:12:48,000 --> 00:12:50,200
over time. 
So, this polling for demand 

268
00:12:50,200 --> 00:12:52,000
argument is very common with 
apple. 

269
00:12:52,000 --> 00:12:55,400
It's common with a lot of other 
companies, but in Apple's case, 

270
00:12:55,800 --> 00:12:57,900
I don't buy it. 
I think the Apple have plenty of

271
00:12:57,900 --> 00:13:01,900
demand next year and the After. 
But let's go ahead and listen, 

272
00:13:03,000 --> 00:13:06,000
that's the clip from June of 
last year and I must say that 

273
00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:10,100
guy sounds pretty smart. 
They're pretty accurate if you 

274
00:13:10,100 --> 00:13:12,000
ask me. 
Now let's go ahead and look at 

275
00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:14,300
this updated clip. 
We have Pure Hair and he's 

276
00:13:14,300 --> 00:13:16,500
giving us his new take on Apple,
his updated. 

277
00:13:16,500 --> 00:13:21,000
Take this is eight months later 
when finding consensus today and

278
00:13:21,000 --> 00:13:23,800
what we think is what actually 
we're reflected in the stock 

279
00:13:23,800 --> 00:13:26,400
price. 
So I 165 dollars, you know, 

280
00:13:26,500 --> 00:13:29,600
that's 25 times what we would 
expect for. 

281
00:13:29,700 --> 00:13:32,600
Or earnings next year. 
And that's, that's about what 

282
00:13:32,600 --> 00:13:34,900
instance is expecting for 
earnings next year sink that are

283
00:13:34,900 --> 00:13:38,300
60. 
And so we feel this turkeys, 

284
00:13:38,300 --> 00:13:41,600
probably reasonably valued, so 
we don't have a strong view on 

285
00:13:41,600 --> 00:13:43,200
the name. 
And that's, that's the rationale

286
00:13:43,200 --> 00:13:46,300
behind our mutual rating. 
So if you didn't catch that, he 

287
00:13:46,300 --> 00:13:50,700
just gave a price Target current
day for 165 for apple, and it's 

288
00:13:50,700 --> 00:13:53,400
currently trading at 173. 
So we as a neutral rating 

289
00:13:53,800 --> 00:13:56,600
saying, it's trading about fair 
value, but it's still little bit

290
00:13:56,600 --> 00:14:01,400
over valued when just eight 
months ago, His thesis on Apple,

291
00:14:01,500 --> 00:14:04,100
his research was well, they 
pulled for too much demand. 

292
00:14:04,100 --> 00:14:07,000
They're not going to sell as 
many iPhones and so, you know, 

293
00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:09,700
they're worth only ninety 
dollars, a share not 125 that 

294
00:14:09,700 --> 00:14:12,200
they are currently trading at. 
So if investors followed him 

295
00:14:12,200 --> 00:14:14,600
back then they would have lost 
money because I would have sold 

296
00:14:14,600 --> 00:14:18,100
Apple hoping that it was going 
to go back down to 90 dollars a 

297
00:14:18,100 --> 00:14:21,700
share. 
Really, it raced up to 170 175 

298
00:14:21,900 --> 00:14:25,500
and now he's saying it's worth 
165, nearly double his price 

299
00:14:25,500 --> 00:14:29,100
Target, just eight months ago. 
This is tough to follow analyst 

300
00:14:29,100 --> 00:14:30,800
like this. 
And I just want to highlight how

301
00:14:30,808 --> 00:14:34,700
they can change their their 
analysis on a company within 

302
00:14:34,700 --> 00:14:37,400
eight months dramatically, 
change it from ninety dollars, a

303
00:14:37,408 --> 00:14:42,000
share to 165 dollars. 
A share an apple hasn't changed 

304
00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:45,300
much in the past eight months, 
the company hasn't fundamentally

305
00:14:45,300 --> 00:14:47,400
changed. 
All they did was just keep doing

306
00:14:47,400 --> 00:14:50,600
the same thing they're doing but
now they're magically worth from

307
00:14:50,600 --> 00:14:53,800
$90 to a 165. 
This is the problem with not 

308
00:14:53,800 --> 00:14:55,700
relying on your own research on 
these type of things. 

309
00:14:56,100 --> 00:14:59,600
Even more confusing is how he so
neutral on Apple. 

310
00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:02,200
He doesn't see that, it's going 
to create any more value in the 

311
00:15:02,200 --> 00:15:05,200
future. 
He doesn't apply any type of, 

312
00:15:05,600 --> 00:15:07,300
you know, the Apple can do 
anything else. 

313
00:15:07,300 --> 00:15:10,200
Other than just sell iPhones, 
his big thesis on Apple, is 

314
00:15:10,200 --> 00:15:11,700
they're just going to sell more 
and more iPhones. 

315
00:15:11,700 --> 00:15:13,200
That's the only way they really 
make money. 

316
00:15:13,700 --> 00:15:14,600
Let's go ahead and listen to 
him. 

317
00:15:14,608 --> 00:15:17,500
Be asked about this, I mean, and
what you're telling me is that 

318
00:15:17,500 --> 00:15:20,400
you're acknowledging, that, you 
got it wrong in regards to 

319
00:15:20,400 --> 00:15:22,100
Apples recent results. 
And of course, there's 

320
00:15:22,100 --> 00:15:24,600
expectations for the current 
fiscal year. 

321
00:15:25,400 --> 00:15:28,400
I'm cute. 
What would change your mind, 

322
00:15:28,400 --> 00:15:30,300
though? 
I guess the fact that You are 

323
00:15:30,300 --> 00:15:32,500
staying neutral right now. 
I mean, what are sort of, the 

324
00:15:32,500 --> 00:15:34,900
key factors that you would 
expect to potentially 

325
00:15:35,100 --> 00:15:39,000
accelerate, the gains in this 
stock that you would be looking 

326
00:15:39,000 --> 00:15:41,200
for that? 
You don't think are there 

327
00:15:41,200 --> 00:15:44,400
currently? 
Yeah, that's a great question. 

328
00:15:44,600 --> 00:15:48,300
I think if you look at the, you 
know, like the existing 

329
00:15:48,300 --> 00:15:51,900
established business of 
Harper's, the iPhone iPad or Mac

330
00:15:52,600 --> 00:15:57,000
the variables as they exist 
today, we don't feel like there 

331
00:15:57,000 --> 00:16:01,900
is significantly significant 
room for City upside against 

332
00:16:01,900 --> 00:16:04,900
existing expectation. 
So if a bird is a business that 

333
00:16:04,900 --> 00:16:09,000
can grow in single digit digit 
revenues and growth free cash 

334
00:16:09,000 --> 00:16:12,100
flow and profitability along the
same line. 

335
00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:15,600
It's just difficult to have more
than a neutral perspective on 

336
00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:18,000
this dog that we don't think 
that is anything Miss price. 

337
00:16:18,000 --> 00:16:20,100
All that is not getting priced 
in yet. 

338
00:16:20,700 --> 00:16:24,100
So mutual really. 
We need we need to locate 

339
00:16:24,100 --> 00:16:27,100
investment but that's not an 
investment for which we would 

340
00:16:27,100 --> 00:16:30,300
pound the table. 
So what would make Gus change 

341
00:16:30,300 --> 00:16:33,800
our mind with that kind of 
expectation in background and 

342
00:16:33,800 --> 00:16:37,000
valuation in background, would 
be really the next steps for 

343
00:16:37,000 --> 00:16:43,500
Apple which is like the the VR 
of a our headset and the car of 

344
00:16:43,500 --> 00:16:45,900
course. 
And we've done a lot of work on 

345
00:16:45,900 --> 00:16:50,900
this room and all of you today 
is that these opportunities, our

346
00:16:50,900 --> 00:16:53,600
mix of being extremely open 
ended. 

347
00:16:53,800 --> 00:16:57,200
So there are very good reasons 
to believe a can do very well if

348
00:16:57,208 --> 00:17:02,200
they're, but how And how far is 
difficult to call? 

349
00:17:02,500 --> 00:17:06,900
And then our second conviction 
is that this will be very slow 

350
00:17:06,900 --> 00:17:10,500
baking opportunities. 
So we don't see a nurse, you 

351
00:17:10,500 --> 00:17:14,800
know, in recommending investors 
to own a perfect for these 

352
00:17:14,800 --> 00:17:18,099
opportunities today. 
So this guy seems like a pretty 

353
00:17:18,099 --> 00:17:21,800
just conservative investor. 
He looks at Apple as kind of a 

354
00:17:21,800 --> 00:17:25,300
mature company with not too much
upside, it's kind of saturated 

355
00:17:25,300 --> 00:17:29,100
its Market, it might have 
incremental growth but the long 

356
00:17:29,100 --> 00:17:33,000
shot Opportunities of an Apple 
car and virtual reality. 

357
00:17:33,500 --> 00:17:35,800
He says not to really factor 
that in too much. 

358
00:17:35,800 --> 00:17:38,000
It's kind of pie in the sky we 
would we don't want to include 

359
00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:42,000
that in our analysis. 
Now that seems kind of odd 

360
00:17:42,100 --> 00:17:44,600
seeing that when I look at some 
more info on them and I did a 

361
00:17:44,608 --> 00:17:48,900
little bit more research, he's 
heavily bullish on Tesla for all

362
00:17:48,900 --> 00:17:52,200
these different type of reasons 
of incredibly aggressive 

363
00:17:52,200 --> 00:17:53,800
predictions of what Tesla's 
going to do. 

364
00:17:54,100 --> 00:17:57,200
In fact, he has one of the 
highest price Targets on Tesla 

365
00:17:57,500 --> 00:18:01,100
of any Wall Street analyst 
putting the Target at sixteen 

366
00:18:01,100 --> 00:18:03,300
hundred dollars right now, so 
thinks it's going to be worth 

367
00:18:03,300 --> 00:18:05,600
one point. 
Six trillion dollars apples, not

368
00:18:05,600 --> 00:18:10,700
even worth what it is right now.
It's worth 165 a share, not 175 

369
00:18:10,700 --> 00:18:14,000
or whatever, it's trading at, 
but Tesla's Worth 16 hundred 

370
00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:17,100
dollars a share currently from 
this analyst and he even has 

371
00:18:17,100 --> 00:18:20,400
tweets where he's done 
presentations, talking about 

372
00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:24,800
what Tesla needs to do to get to
10 trillion dollars, where he 

373
00:18:24,800 --> 00:18:27,700
goes on about Teslas, Insurance 
business and how it could be 

374
00:18:27,700 --> 00:18:29,500
worth hundreds of billions of 
dollars. 

375
00:18:29,800 --> 00:18:33,000
And be berated at multiples 25 
times. 

376
00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:35,500
What a normal business is these 
are the type of things he's 

377
00:18:35,500 --> 00:18:39,100
talking about but when it comes 
to Apple, not much upside there,

378
00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:40,900
not a whole lot going on with 
apple. 

379
00:18:41,500 --> 00:18:43,400
Everything with the upside is 
what Tesla. 

380
00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:46,800
I think that mr. 
Pierre respectfully. 

381
00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:49,900
I think he's wrong again. 
He was wrong when he said that 

382
00:18:49,900 --> 00:18:53,000
it was ninety dollars a share. 
Now he moved that to 160 and I 

383
00:18:53,000 --> 00:18:54,100
think we're going to see a 
repeat. 

384
00:18:54,100 --> 00:18:57,700
I think the Apple continue to 
absorb a lot of the money in the

385
00:18:57,700 --> 00:18:59,300
economy. 
One thing that I think we can 

386
00:18:59,300 --> 00:19:02,300
look With apples business right 
now, is this chart? 

387
00:19:02,800 --> 00:19:05,100
This is Apple subscriptions over
time. 

388
00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:08,900
We talked about Apple becoming a
software subscription business, 

389
00:19:09,400 --> 00:19:11,500
but I think this chart is just 
straightforward. 

390
00:19:11,600 --> 00:19:13,600
It really illustrates what's 
going on with apple in the 

391
00:19:13,600 --> 00:19:15,600
background. 
People view it as a phone 

392
00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:18,600
company. 
They view it as a iPad and Mac 

393
00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:20,500
Book Company. 
This is the amount of 

394
00:19:20,500 --> 00:19:24,900
subscriptions in millions that 
Apple currently has people on 

395
00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:28,200
last quarter. 
It went up another 40 million 

396
00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:31,900
subscriptions to 785 million 
subscriptions. 

397
00:19:32,300 --> 00:19:34,100
That's what this company is 
doing in the background. 

398
00:19:34,500 --> 00:19:37,900
If you don't think that this is 
valuable incremental growth, 

399
00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:41,400
High profit growth. 
Then I don't know what is apple.

400
00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:44,000
Is growing, its service 
business, like crazy, the 

401
00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:47,400
earnings of Apple R up, 22 
percent year-over-year, that's 

402
00:19:47,400 --> 00:19:50,300
much quicker earnings growth in 
the average company in the S&P 

403
00:19:50,300 --> 00:19:52,600
500. 
I think it has limited downside 

404
00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:54,800
and it still has incredibly good
upside. 

405
00:19:54,800 --> 00:19:57,600
So I remain bullish on Apple. 
I don't think that mr. 

406
00:19:57,600 --> 00:19:59,300
Pierre here is correct. 
I think that we're going to see 

407
00:19:59,300 --> 00:20:01,400
him. 
Wrong on this one again, but 

408
00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:03,700
we'll wait and see, maybe we'll 
check back in a year and see 

409
00:20:03,700 --> 00:20:05,600
where apples trading at. 
Now, the last thing that I 

410
00:20:05,600 --> 00:20:08,600
wanted to address in my 
portfolio is we have a lot of 

411
00:20:08,600 --> 00:20:11,300
controversy surrounding Spotify 
right now. 

412
00:20:11,600 --> 00:20:15,300
Most people have heard about it 
regarding Joe Rogan and some of 

413
00:20:15,300 --> 00:20:19,100
the things that he says on his 
podcast regarding health and 

414
00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:22,000
and, you know, all the, the 
controversial topics that he 

415
00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:25,000
discusses, a lot of people. 
It's upsetting because he shares

416
00:20:25,000 --> 00:20:27,100
different thoughts, and 
different opinions, and random 

417
00:20:27,100 --> 00:20:31,000
studies and stuff and that too. 
Is ongoing right now. 

418
00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:33,600
Now, I don't want to insert 
myself in that debate. 

419
00:20:33,700 --> 00:20:35,500
I think it's important. 
I think it should be had. 

420
00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:38,200
I think that at that people 
should push back when they don't

421
00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:41,400
like something like this. 
I just want to discuss it from 

422
00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:45,200
an investment perspective. 
What I'll say about Spotify is 

423
00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:47,000
when people look at 
controversies like this, and 

424
00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:49,300
they think this can't be good 
for the company. 

425
00:20:49,300 --> 00:20:51,900
They have Joe Rogan, he's 
causing problems. 

426
00:20:51,900 --> 00:20:54,700
There's artists leaving right. 
A couple artists that are I 

427
00:20:54,700 --> 00:20:57,100
don't think they're like the 
biggest ones, but Spotify has a 

428
00:20:57,108 --> 00:20:59,600
couple artists that have jumped 
and they've jumped ship. 

429
00:20:59,700 --> 00:21:02,800
Ripped and pulled their entire 
catalog off a Spotify, it can 

430
00:21:02,800 --> 00:21:06,500
become worrisome. 
What I will say is that when I 

431
00:21:06,500 --> 00:21:10,200
look at Spotify as a platform 
and the fact that it has 

432
00:21:10,300 --> 00:21:13,200
National debate going on about 
its platform. 

433
00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:16,100
Now to me, I view that as a good
thing. 

434
00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:19,000
I think that it it's a bullish 
thing for Spotify. 

435
00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:22,400
It's like they're growing up, 
think about this for a minute. 

436
00:21:22,500 --> 00:21:26,600
Every single major platform that
hosts other people's content has

437
00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:28,900
gone through these type of 
similar debates and these type 

438
00:21:28,900 --> 00:21:31,100
of similar content. 
Percy's apples had to deal with 

439
00:21:31,100 --> 00:21:33,400
controversy from user-generated 
content. 

440
00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:36,800
YouTube certainly has Google has
with YouTube, many times in 

441
00:21:36,808 --> 00:21:40,000
history, as some of it. 
That was pretty big regarding 

442
00:21:40,300 --> 00:21:43,300
content with children and how to
protect them from potential. 

443
00:21:43,300 --> 00:21:47,000
Predators, you have issues with 
Netflix, they've had controversy

444
00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:49,900
in the past. 
You have issues with Facebook 

445
00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:53,600
with Instagram and facebook.com.
There's tons of information, 

446
00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:55,200
good, and bad. 
And everything in between 

447
00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:56,900
getting shared on Instagram and 
Facebook. 

448
00:21:56,900 --> 00:22:00,400
Every single day. 
Spotify is not the Only company 

449
00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:03,500
that's ever dealt with these 
type of issues, they run rampant

450
00:22:03,500 --> 00:22:07,600
in every single type of massive.
User-generated content platform,

451
00:22:07,900 --> 00:22:11,300
I think they'll take the steps 
to deal with it, to clarify 

452
00:22:11,300 --> 00:22:13,600
information, linked to valid 
sources. 

453
00:22:13,600 --> 00:22:16,900
Give proper disclaimers, but 
still try to balance that with 

454
00:22:17,100 --> 00:22:19,700
free speech and free discussion.
I think it's good to have the 

455
00:22:19,708 --> 00:22:22,000
debate and put pressure on 
Spotify, make change in all of 

456
00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:23,700
that. 
I'm not arguing against that, 

457
00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:26,300
but in my opinion, when I look 
at companies like this, and I 

458
00:22:26,300 --> 00:22:29,500
look at the history of them and 
the huge majority of cases. 

459
00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:34,300
If like the the crowd moves on 
the controversy moves from one 

460
00:22:34,300 --> 00:22:37,200
thing to the next today, it's 
Spotify tomorrow will be 

461
00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:39,900
something else. 
So I assume that that's going to

462
00:22:39,908 --> 00:22:41,800
happen. 
In this case I could be wrong, 

463
00:22:42,100 --> 00:22:44,700
maybe some major artists, you 
know, ones that really get 

464
00:22:44,700 --> 00:22:47,300
millions of streams. 
Every single day will pull their

465
00:22:47,300 --> 00:22:49,900
catalogs but I don't see that 
happening right now. 

466
00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:53,100
I think the Spotify is going to 
deal with it and it hasn't 

467
00:22:53,100 --> 00:22:55,400
really changed my my thesis on 
Spotify. 

468
00:22:55,600 --> 00:22:58,800
If I look at the company, this 
company is growing like a weed. 

469
00:22:59,100 --> 00:23:02,400
They're growing their You by 20%
year-over-year, they're growing 

470
00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:04,900
their user base. 
Both monthly active users and 

471
00:23:04,900 --> 00:23:07,500
premium users by 20% 
year-over-year. 

472
00:23:07,700 --> 00:23:09,900
Their free cash flow, positive 
and have been for years. 

473
00:23:10,100 --> 00:23:12,600
So, they've been investing all 
of their cash back into growing 

474
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:14,100
their business. 
They've been doing a lot of 

475
00:23:14,108 --> 00:23:16,500
things, like, improving their 
advertising on their platform. 

476
00:23:16,700 --> 00:23:19,900
They now have call to actions on
all their podcast ads. 

477
00:23:20,300 --> 00:23:23,300
So this is much more effective. 
They, in fact, say that it's 

478
00:23:23,300 --> 00:23:25,300
50%, more effective for 
advertisers. 

479
00:23:25,300 --> 00:23:28,200
So Spotify is doing a lot of 
positive things in the 

480
00:23:28,208 --> 00:23:31,900
background and It's just not 
enough for me right now to dump 

481
00:23:31,900 --> 00:23:34,500
this investment, I think, 
fundamentally speaking. 

482
00:23:34,900 --> 00:23:36,900
If you look at the actual 
company, it's moving in the 

483
00:23:36,908 --> 00:23:39,200
right direction. 
So that's the update for now. 

484
00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:42,800
Today was a really good day for 
the portfolio, up over 5%. 

485
00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:45,000
But, we'll see how this week 
shakes out. 

486
00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:47,900
It's pretty crazy out there in 
the stock market, but I feel 

487
00:23:47,900 --> 00:23:50,500
very good about each and every 
company that I own and I'll 

488
00:23:50,500 --> 00:23:51,900
continue to track them week by 
week.