Welcome everyone. Thank you for joining on this
video. We're going to be talking about
this, incredible day. We had today in the market.
If you weren't paying attention, we had a hugely positive Green
Day. The NASDAQ is up 3.4 one
percent, the S&P 500 closed. One point eight, nine percent in
the Grain and even the Dow Jones is up one point, one seven
percent. But you notice that the gains
were tilted towards the NASDAQ, which has been beaten up the
most, and this is pretty incredible.
This is like a relief rally a reversal of trend.
We've been Trending down and recent history in the NASDAQ,
the S&P 500, and the Dow Jones, but especially the QQQ and these
type of companies. But now we see a huge reversal
and Trend 3.41 percent green. And one day is a pretty big
green day and it's even more. So with the type of companies
that I hold in my portfolio, the story fund.
If you're new to the channel, I follow this growth portfolio,
week by week and give complete transparency.
And how it's doing today was a special day for the story fund.
It is up Point three five percent.
This is a huge Green Day, one of the most green days in the
history of this entire portfolio.
Overall, we're still struggling because this type of portfolio,
got beat down pretty bad. Over the past three months, it
has a lot of these tech companies.
Netflix got beat up companies like Spotify and Salesforce and
Adobe atlassian, twilio, these type of companies, all got beat
up pretty hard over the past three months.
But then, we have this crazy day today.
Five point three, five percent in the green.
Netflix was up ten point four six percent Spotify was up 13
percent. These are crazy numbers that
happen. Today's.
So anytime this type of thing happens where we have one big
green day after a lot of selling.
This is where we have a lot of speculation, a lot of opinions
on what this means for the overall market and I want to
discuss it and give my thoughts on it.
So we're going to be going over that.
I'll be giving an update on a lot of different Holdings in the
story fund. What I think is going on with
them right now and we also have one other news item that I want
to mention. Remember that Apple analysts
that came on CNBC June of last year and he said, while wearing
are pods. The Apple was grossly.
Overvalued. It was overvalued by over 30%.
Apple was at the time trading at 125 and he said it was worth
ninety dollars a share. He said, Apple had too good of a
year in 2021. They are just having too good of
a year and they had too good of a year in 2020 and they pulled
for demand. And he said that, you know, this
this next year is going to be really tough for Apple.
Well, I disagreed with him. I posted a reaction video to
this and I said, hey, I think this guy's dead wrong.
I think his thesis is wrong. Here's the reasons why.
And it turns out that he just appeared back on CNBC just
today. So I want to take a look at his
new price target of apple and his thoughts on the company
going forward. So we have a lot to jump into in
this episode as always and just a reminder, if you haven't
already, you should check out the patreon associated with this
channel. Most patreons are just like the
community Discord and maybe some exclusive content.
We offer that as well on this channel.
I do hour-long amas weekly as well as exclusive episodes.
We have a community Discord. That's for patreon members.
It has over 2,000 active members, but in addition to
that, I want to remind you. You also get access to Quality
from this website at no additional charge.
There's no add-ons. There's no bait and switch.
It's not something separate. It is totally included with the
base patreon level and call term is a suite of investing tools to
help you become a better investor.
One of them is called from inside.
It's which gives you at a glance all the fundamentals of any
company. I can type in apple and see
their revenue and ibadah and free cash flow net income, their
balance sheet, their debt, their dividends their cash, their
shares outstanding, their earnings per share.
Going way back to 1996, I can see a ton of information at a
glance as well as the valuation metrics.
The margins, the growth, you know, the dividend summary all
of this stuff very easily on one page.
It works for any of the publicly traded companies, any of them on
us exchanges. So this tool Is included as part
of the patreon. You also get access to Quality
from track. This is a different part of this
tool. This gives you information about
your portfolio, your dividend growth over time, and this
actually does projections on your upcoming dividends over the
next year. We're building all of this out.
So again, qual term track called from Insight, everything they do
at this website, including the mobile app, that's on IOS.
And Android are included as part of the patreon, no additional
charges, no upselling, no ads, nothing like that.
And we are working on something right now that I think is going
to be awesome. Going to be released probably
within a couple weeks called the dip finder.
And that's gonna be another big segment on this website.
Another big tab with. I think a really cool tool.
So, I'll explain that more in the future.
But, if you haven't already, try out the patreon.
There's a link in the description.
All right. Now, having said that, let's go
ahead and jump into the portfolio and do an update.
For those of you new to the channel, this is called the
story fund. It is my growth portfolio.
I track it with total transparency week by week, and I
Benchmark it against the S&P 500.
So, if you're interested in seeing an Irving the outcome of
a real portfolio with real money.
Over a long period of time to see if this can work a stock
picking can work. And I can invest in long-term
compounding companies like Netflix and Amazon, and Google
and Spotify and Salesforce, and Adobe these type of
subscription-based. I think, incredibly good,
compound and companies, then you can subscribe to the channel and
follow along for free. I'll be doing updates every
single week. The portfolio, overall, I think
it's had a tough time. I'm right the past three months,
there's been this crazy sell-off in these high-growth names every
type of tech company. And Cloud company has basically
been re-rated and the market has not like them.
The market has been stuffing money into energy companies and,
and financials and commodities and different places outside of
these tech companies that had a big run up.
So over the past three months, I've given up all of my games.
I went from being in the green by 25,000 dollars to now just
being in the green by $1300. And that's painful, that's
something that's mentally difficult to deal with.
But not really, if you have the right perspective, if you have
the long-term perspective, I own just as many shares in the
companies that I initially bought as I did before and the
sell-off, gave me the opportunity to buy more heavily
into a lot of these companies that I already love.
I love Netflix as a company and an investment after the
sell-off. I bought more of this company,
the same thing with Spotify, the same thing with, with all these
companies, with igv, all these cloud, Knees.
I increase my position sizing that as well.
The sell-off was an opportunity for me so even though I'm in the
green by $1300, I look at this as an opportunity to gain, way
more share count. So that when we do have another
run up, I have a lot more starting off.
So I think it's a good thing in the end.
Now the portfolio is actually pretty bad like a week ago.
A week ago, it was even further in the red by seven thousand
dollars. I was in the red, so being $1300
in the green today is pretty remarkable.
The past day. This Just today we're up five
point three percent so we outperform even the QQQ by a
large degree. These type of companies really
pop when the market is back in pull mode, right?
When when things are going good in the markets going up, I think
these companies will make a lot of ground.
Now, let's go ahead and look at the performance of it.
Overall, against the S&P 500. I tracked this on this chart
here and you can see the, the story fund is in blue.
So my portfolio is the Blue Line.
The S&P 500 is in red, and I show this Us again, every single
week you can see the performance of this, and I plan on doing so,
until the end of 2025. Now, you can see that the past
two months, the performance suffered in my portfolio, we had
Netflix trending downwards. And then we had the huge
sell-off after the bad quarter. We have Ali Baba, having a tough
time. We have controversies with
Spotify that company selling off and it traded down to negative
seven percent. So, I was actually pretty well
in the red and then in just the past couple days, this rally put
me back in the green Plus Percent against the S&P 500 at
plus Seventeen percent. So the S&P 500 is still in the
lead right now but the Gap was closed.
Quite a bit over, just the past couple of days and I think this
gives you an idea of how quickly things can change this much area
covered in just a few days. If the market decides look, we
sold off too much. These type of growth companies
have just been oversold. We're not really worried about
the whole inflation thing or that, you know, the raising
interest rates that's really not as big of a deal.
Deal, which the market could, they could shrug it off at some
point. These are the type of companies
that I think investors will want to pile money back into the
market swings from one narrative to the other, the pendulum sways
from one side to the other and in many cases it goes to
extreme. It'll go too far to the side of
fear and that's where we're headed.
The market has been extremely fearful selling out of every
tech company, nothing story-driven, nothing's
narrative-driven, nothing about the future.
Once the Kimberley Clark's the Procter & Gamble's that most
defensive companies you can get right now that have cash flows
right now. Today that's what people want
right now because there's a Fed there's interest rates going up.
There might be inflation but the pendulum will eventually swing
back to Greed mode. That will happen over time.
When that happens investors will pull money out of there.
They're big mature, slow growing energy companies and consumer
defensive companies and they want to get back into growth all
7lb. Talking about Spotify,
dominating the world with audio and Netflix dominating.
The world was streaming this type of thing sways from one
direction to the other. So even though right now the
narrative is heavily suede towards the more defensive
companies in the S&P 500, I think the pendulum will
eventually swing backwards. I don't know when that will
happen. Whenever we have a big relief
rally, a trend reversal day like today, where we've been selling
off for a while. And all of a sudden we have a
reverse of that Trend and a big update, this is when the
speculation happens. People go on TV and say, this is
the bottom prepare for this huge rally.
Yet, people saying the selling is not over, it's going to be
another 10%. The truth is, we don't know.
We don't know if this is the bottom.
If it's going to reverse Trend now we have no clue what I do
know is that these type of companies are way sold off
compared to what they were three months ago.
They're way better value than where they were three months ago
and there's way more upside with them.
Now if you're looking to buy in the tech companies and cloud
cover, Companies and these type of scalable high growth
companies now is a much better time than three months ago.
So that's all we know. And I'm very personally
optimistic about the future with this portfolio, I feel very
confident in my chances of still having good gains over these
next couple, couple years because in reality, this has
been a pretty short time. One year is not a significant
amount of time and I don't think we're out of the running yet.
Now, let's go ahead and jump in to this apple analysts that June
of last year gave a cell rate For apple and said that it was
worth ninety dollars. A share when it was currently
trading at 125 hair, is my response video.
My reaction video to this analyst, his name's Pierre and
he covers companies like apple and Tesla and he called it in
with his bearish call on Apple wearing his are pods.
This is kind of what he said in my reaction at the time.
This was June of 2021, he's a demon polyethylene. 12 is
actually exceptionally strong. So what does that mean?
That means a phone in producing 5G.
Return of the metal frame, on the case has introduced a lot of
changes in, who can feel and a lot of innovation and has driven
a lot, a lot of interest. And that's bringing forward
replacement. So a lot of people who normally
would have replaced their for next year actually, going to
replace it this year. This is always always the beer
case for Apple, for the past 10 years.
This has been the bear case for Apple while they're doing so
good right now, they have so much Demand right now that they
can't, they Can't sustain this level of demand and to the next
year or the year after that's always the same thing.
He says that the problem with apple if this is the bear case
for Apple is they're doing too. Well, they're doing too well
right now. They selling too many phones and
they're definitely not gonna be able to keep this up in the
future because people like their products so much that they're
buying all of them now they won't, they won't need them next
year. They call this polling demand
forward so you have demand in the future and you're pulling it
forward to now. I think this is one of the
weakest arguments. For almost any company, the
polling demand for it. It can happen a little bit in
some very unique cases, but most of the time a company that did
well, one year should continue to do well in two years into the
future. And even if it has some times
where it goes through a little bit, less demand it evens out
over time. So, this polling for demand
argument is very common with apple.
It's common with a lot of other companies, but in Apple's case,
I don't buy it. I think the Apple have plenty of
demand next year and the After. But let's go ahead and listen,
that's the clip from June of last year and I must say that
guy sounds pretty smart. They're pretty accurate if you
ask me. Now let's go ahead and look at
this updated clip. We have Pure Hair and he's
giving us his new take on Apple, his updated.
Take this is eight months later when finding consensus today and
what we think is what actually we're reflected in the stock
price. So I 165 dollars, you know,
that's 25 times what we would expect for.
Or earnings next year. And that's, that's about what
instance is expecting for earnings next year sink that are
60. And so we feel this turkeys,
probably reasonably valued, so we don't have a strong view on
the name. And that's, that's the rationale
behind our mutual rating. So if you didn't catch that, he
just gave a price Target current day for 165 for apple, and it's
currently trading at 173. So we as a neutral rating
saying, it's trading about fair value, but it's still little bit
over valued when just eight months ago, His thesis on Apple,
his research was well, they pulled for too much demand.
They're not going to sell as many iPhones and so, you know,
they're worth only ninety dollars, a share not 125 that
they are currently trading at. So if investors followed him
back then they would have lost money because I would have sold
Apple hoping that it was going to go back down to 90 dollars a
share. Really, it raced up to 170 175
and now he's saying it's worth 165, nearly double his price
Target, just eight months ago. This is tough to follow analyst
like this. And I just want to highlight how
they can change their their analysis on a company within
eight months dramatically, change it from ninety dollars, a
share to 165 dollars. A share an apple hasn't changed
much in the past eight months, the company hasn't fundamentally
changed. All they did was just keep doing
the same thing they're doing but now they're magically worth from
$90 to a 165. This is the problem with not
relying on your own research on these type of things.
Even more confusing is how he so neutral on Apple.
He doesn't see that, it's going to create any more value in the
future. He doesn't apply any type of,
you know, the Apple can do anything else.
Other than just sell iPhones, his big thesis on Apple, is
they're just going to sell more and more iPhones.
That's the only way they really make money.
Let's go ahead and listen to him.
Be asked about this, I mean, and what you're telling me is that
you're acknowledging, that, you got it wrong in regards to
Apples recent results. And of course, there's
expectations for the current fiscal year.
I'm cute. What would change your mind,
though? I guess the fact that You are
staying neutral right now. I mean, what are sort of, the
key factors that you would expect to potentially
accelerate, the gains in this stock that you would be looking
for that? You don't think are there
currently? Yeah, that's a great question.
I think if you look at the, you know, like the existing
established business of Harper's, the iPhone iPad or Mac
the variables as they exist today, we don't feel like there
is significantly significant room for City upside against
existing expectation. So if a bird is a business that
can grow in single digit digit revenues and growth free cash
flow and profitability along the same line.
It's just difficult to have more than a neutral perspective on
this dog that we don't think that is anything Miss price.
All that is not getting priced in yet.
So mutual really. We need we need to locate
investment but that's not an investment for which we would
pound the table. So what would make Gus change
our mind with that kind of expectation in background and
valuation in background, would be really the next steps for
Apple which is like the the VR of a our headset and the car of
course. And we've done a lot of work on
this room and all of you today is that these opportunities, our
mix of being extremely open ended.
So there are very good reasons to believe a can do very well if
they're, but how And how far is difficult to call?
And then our second conviction is that this will be very slow
baking opportunities. So we don't see a nurse, you
know, in recommending investors to own a perfect for these
opportunities today. So this guy seems like a pretty
just conservative investor. He looks at Apple as kind of a
mature company with not too much upside, it's kind of saturated
its Market, it might have incremental growth but the long
shot Opportunities of an Apple car and virtual reality.
He says not to really factor that in too much.
It's kind of pie in the sky we would we don't want to include
that in our analysis. Now that seems kind of odd
seeing that when I look at some more info on them and I did a
little bit more research, he's heavily bullish on Tesla for all
these different type of reasons of incredibly aggressive
predictions of what Tesla's going to do.
In fact, he has one of the highest price Targets on Tesla
of any Wall Street analyst putting the Target at sixteen
hundred dollars right now, so thinks it's going to be worth
one point. Six trillion dollars apples, not
even worth what it is right now. It's worth 165 a share, not 175
or whatever, it's trading at, but Tesla's Worth 16 hundred
dollars a share currently from this analyst and he even has
tweets where he's done presentations, talking about
what Tesla needs to do to get to 10 trillion dollars, where he
goes on about Teslas, Insurance business and how it could be
worth hundreds of billions of dollars.
And be berated at multiples 25 times.
What a normal business is these are the type of things he's
talking about but when it comes to Apple, not much upside there,
not a whole lot going on with apple.
Everything with the upside is what Tesla.
I think that mr. Pierre respectfully.
I think he's wrong again. He was wrong when he said that
it was ninety dollars a share. Now he moved that to 160 and I
think we're going to see a repeat.
I think the Apple continue to absorb a lot of the money in the
economy. One thing that I think we can
look With apples business right now, is this chart?
This is Apple subscriptions over time.
We talked about Apple becoming a software subscription business,
but I think this chart is just straightforward.
It really illustrates what's going on with apple in the
background. People view it as a phone
company. They view it as a iPad and Mac
Book Company. This is the amount of
subscriptions in millions that Apple currently has people on
last quarter. It went up another 40 million
subscriptions to 785 million subscriptions.
That's what this company is doing in the background.
If you don't think that this is valuable incremental growth,
High profit growth. Then I don't know what is apple.
Is growing, its service business, like crazy, the
earnings of Apple R up, 22 percent year-over-year, that's
much quicker earnings growth in the average company in the S&P
500. I think it has limited downside
and it still has incredibly good upside.
So I remain bullish on Apple. I don't think that mr.
Pierre here is correct. I think that we're going to see
him. Wrong on this one again, but
we'll wait and see, maybe we'll check back in a year and see
where apples trading at. Now, the last thing that I
wanted to address in my portfolio is we have a lot of
controversy surrounding Spotify right now.
Most people have heard about it regarding Joe Rogan and some of
the things that he says on his podcast regarding health and
and, you know, all the, the controversial topics that he
discusses, a lot of people. It's upsetting because he shares
different thoughts, and different opinions, and random
studies and stuff and that too. Is ongoing right now.
Now, I don't want to insert myself in that debate.
I think it's important. I think it should be had.
I think that at that people should push back when they don't
like something like this. I just want to discuss it from
an investment perspective. What I'll say about Spotify is
when people look at controversies like this, and
they think this can't be good for the company.
They have Joe Rogan, he's causing problems.
There's artists leaving right. A couple artists that are I
don't think they're like the biggest ones, but Spotify has a
couple artists that have jumped and they've jumped ship.
Ripped and pulled their entire catalog off a Spotify, it can
become worrisome. What I will say is that when I
look at Spotify as a platform and the fact that it has
National debate going on about its platform.
Now to me, I view that as a good thing.
I think that it it's a bullish thing for Spotify.
It's like they're growing up, think about this for a minute.
Every single major platform that hosts other people's content has
gone through these type of similar debates and these type
of similar content. Percy's apples had to deal with
controversy from user-generated content.
YouTube certainly has Google has with YouTube, many times in
history, as some of it. That was pretty big regarding
content with children and how to protect them from potential.
Predators, you have issues with Netflix, they've had controversy
in the past. You have issues with Facebook
with Instagram and facebook.com. There's tons of information,
good, and bad. And everything in between
getting shared on Instagram and Facebook.
Every single day. Spotify is not the Only company
that's ever dealt with these type of issues, they run rampant
in every single type of massive. User-generated content platform,
I think they'll take the steps to deal with it, to clarify
information, linked to valid sources.
Give proper disclaimers, but still try to balance that with
free speech and free discussion. I think it's good to have the
debate and put pressure on Spotify, make change in all of
that. I'm not arguing against that,
but in my opinion, when I look at companies like this, and I
look at the history of them and the huge majority of cases.
If like the the crowd moves on the controversy moves from one
thing to the next today, it's Spotify tomorrow will be
something else. So I assume that that's going to
happen. In this case I could be wrong,
maybe some major artists, you know, ones that really get
millions of streams. Every single day will pull their
catalogs but I don't see that happening right now.
I think the Spotify is going to deal with it and it hasn't
really changed my my thesis on Spotify.
If I look at the company, this company is growing like a weed.
They're growing their You by 20% year-over-year, they're growing
their user base. Both monthly active users and
premium users by 20% year-over-year.
Their free cash flow, positive and have been for years.
So, they've been investing all of their cash back into growing
their business. They've been doing a lot of
things, like, improving their advertising on their platform.
They now have call to actions on all their podcast ads.
So this is much more effective. They, in fact, say that it's
50%, more effective for advertisers.
So Spotify is doing a lot of positive things in the
background and It's just not enough for me right now to dump
this investment, I think, fundamentally speaking.
If you look at the actual company, it's moving in the
right direction. So that's the update for now.
Today was a really good day for the portfolio, up over 5%.
But, we'll see how this week shakes out.
It's pretty crazy out there in the stock market, but I feel
very good about each and every company that I own and I'll
continue to track them week by week.