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Welcome everyone. 
Back to the Joseph Carlson show 

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on this episode. 
We have a special episode 

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because we're joined by a very 
prominent Amazon shareholder on 

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Twitter, and I'll go ahead and 
I'm displaying on the screen 

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right now. 
Your Twitter account, your 

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account name is bull and it's 
stay. 

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The tag is Amazon, holder one, 
and you have three thousand two 

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hundred followers. 
I'm assuming most of them are 

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following you because of your, 
your takes in your thoughts on 

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Amazon. 
You're constantly posting stuff 

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about Amazon, so I have a lot of
questions for you and I think 

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it'll be fun to go through 
these. 

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First of all, the, what do you 
say that's accurate? 

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Like most of what you're doing 
on Twitter, you kind of share 

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your thoughts on Amazon, or is 
there any other goal with it? 

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No. 
Absolutely, I got on Twitter 

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around November, I would say, I 
just was fed up with Amazon 

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management. 
You know, I've, I've been in the

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stock for years and ever since 
covid, began management has just

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been pitiful at allocating 
capital and I got on in November

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and it originally started as 
just me and a few friends and we

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tag Andy, Jesse and tell him 
what we were thinking and 

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eventually they did almost 
everything I say. 

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That back when I started, I 
wanted them to split the stock. 

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I wanted them to do a buyback. 
I wanted them to reduce capex, a

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million different things, and I 
had read that Andy jassy reads 

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all the emails from customers 
that are angry. 

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I don't know, if you read all of
them, sure there's a million of.

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Yeah but I read that he actually
sits down and listens to 

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customer concerns. 
And so I said okay well let me 

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go on Twitter and let me tag 
this guy and give him my opinion

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on a few things I would change. 
Change. 

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Yeah, I'm so you've been in 
this, you've been in a stock for

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years, it seems like I'll show 
on the screen here, just the 

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past five years of performance. 
Sure. 

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It this stock seems like one 
that goes through a period of 

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just under performance, just 
total stagnation. 

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And then it's had a couple good 
bouts of, you know, have a good 

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run from 2018 or 2017, 2018. 
It was up like 90% but then it 

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stayed flat for over a year had 
another little run 70. 

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Percent up, that was pretty 
good. 

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But now it's been flat for, like
two years. 

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So that's kind of crazy to me. 
Seeing, how much the company has

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moved over that time and you're 
trying to highlight the reason 

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that that is. 
Yeah, I mean, look, yesterday I 

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posted a chart of Apple versus 
Amazon from when the pandemic 

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hit, and if you go to, I think 
it was like May or June or 

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something like that, Apple's up 
100% And Amazon's at a zero 

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percent return, right? 
And everyone said, oh, Amazon's 

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the big winner of covid. 
Well, Apple picked up a trillion

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plus dollars in market cap since
then, and we've added zero. 

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And I think it's just the market
telling Amazon. 

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We're really tired of your 
endless capex cycle. 

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If you step back and be 
objective, Amazon has really not

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done much in almost five years. 
Look at where it peaked in 2018 

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and look at where we are now. 
And I know, As in Amazon for the

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million growth drivers it has 
and yes it has growth drivers 

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that none of these other fan 
companies have but at the same 

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time you run the risk of 
becoming a GE when you're doing 

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too many things at once, right. 
And none of them are, you know, 

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paying dividends so to speak at 
this point, they're all 

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tremendous ideas, but they take 
so much capital and look, 

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Amazon's not a Growth Company 
anymore. 

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It's in this category. 
Mega caps that are all over like

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1.5 trillion with Google and 
Facebook and apple and 

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Microsoft. 
And those companies have these 

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massive shareholder return 
programs, right? 

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A couple of them have dividends.
They have these like, 60 plus 

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billion-dollar BuyBacks and 
Amazon is just acting like a 

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little growth startup, and 
that's fine. 

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But you can't do that with the 
class of investor that Amazon 

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now has because the people in 
Amazon today, Today, they're 

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not, they're expecting 10x gains
from here. 

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They're there for stability and 
it just doesn't offer it today. 

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Yeah, the thing trades volatile.
It's a very volatile stock, 

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especially for the size that it 
is like, we're, you know, Amazon

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looks like it will trade 
hundreds of billions of dollars 

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in market cap in like an hour, 
which is crazy penny stock, but 

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it's a one and a half trillion 
dollar company. 

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Absolutely. 
So, I mean, you have a I want to

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set some Foundation here because
I know a lot of people that are 

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watching, this are going to be 
familiar with you. 

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You have a, your you have a lot 
of concerns about Amazon that 

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are very vocal of. 
But obviously you're very 

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bullish on the company overall 
because you have a lot of 

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exposure to it. 
I don't know if Sauron give 

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like, you know, I don't know 
what you're willing to or 

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comfortable to give in terms of 
exposure. 

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But you're, you know, is there 
any gauge of kind of how 

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Overexposed to Amazon you are 
based out of like a, yes, 6% 

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waiting Index, right? 
Is kind of the best. 

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Benchmark. 
Yeah, absolutely. 

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I would say I'm not as bullish 
as Bill Miller, who's 50% of his

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net worth is Amazon but I do 
have probably I would say, 

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around 20 percent of my net 
worth and Amazon leaps actually 

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which I've been rolling over and
over for years and so minor out 

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to 2020 for right now and come 
this August September when the 

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2025 is come out. 
I'll roll out again but yeah 

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it's getting painful here. 
Waiting waiting a long time on 

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it. 
Okay. 

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All right, so you're very 
bullish on it. 

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I'm will get into that in just a
minute. 

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I want to know in terms of a lot
of Amazon investors are, you 

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know, the earnings are right 
around the corner, but I want to

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know your thoughts on Amazon's 
earnings in comparison to the 

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rest of big Tech. 
Like maybe we start overall, 

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which is kind of what you expect
for this week in terms of all a 

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big Tech and then and then boil 
it down to just Amazon. 

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Sure. 
Well, I mean tomorrow you have 

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Google and Microsoft reporting. 
I expect Microsoft to have 

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another great quarter, but look 
at the chart, you know, the 

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chart is a huge Head and 
Shoulders pattern which is not 

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bullish at all. 
Now it could be a false and the 

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stock could break higher, but 
I'll be honest, it none of these

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charts and big Tech look bullish
at all. 

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So I don't know. 
Microsoft is going to have great

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numbers. 
I've seen some analyst reports 

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that you know, as or is having a
gentle deceleration. 

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But there's there's no such 
Thing as a gentle deceleration. 

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Because once you start 
decelerating, you're 

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decelerating until you're not 
and the markets not going to 

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treat you. 
Well Google has the same issue 

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they posted the chart last week 
from. 

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Yep. 
It which is like a third party 

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analytics service. 
And yep, it shows that this 

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quarter AWS this quarter, 
meaning the first quarter, AWS 

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outgrew gcp which would be. 
I mean that would be 

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catastrophic in terms of gcp 
being a growth driver for go. 

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Google because I mean, gcp is a 
fraction of the size of AWS and 

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it shouldn't be growing at a 
slower Pace, but their sample 

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size was only around 5 billion 
dollars so you can take it with 

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a grain of salt. 
But yeah, it might not be 

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indicated, but actually, it may 
my thoughts. 

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It makes sense. 
That even though Google cloud is

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smaller, it might take like they
might actually grow slower 

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because of just the cost of 
acquisition catching up when the

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default choice for everybody. 
Going to cloud is going to 

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Amazon or a, you know, a sure 
it's going to be one of them do 

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so lutely and gcp, raise prices 
in the first quarter. 

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That's a big No-No and in the 
world of cloud, so I don't know.

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We'll have to see, but look, two
days after I posted that chart. 

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Google had fallen another 10%. 
So I don't know other funds saw 

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that and we'll have to see what 
Google does tomorrow. 

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It is my second largest 
position. 

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I'm not, I'm not a Google hater 
or anything. 

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I'm just saying in the short 
term, it looks like it might 

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have have some headwinds. 
Yeah, I'm, you know, Google is 

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my, it's my second biggest 
position as well. 

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And I'm bullish on Google. 
I kind of for different reasons.

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I think the cloud is a big 
component of it, but, you know, 

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they have Monopoly in so many 
other businesses YouTube. 

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Obviously, I'm a little bit 
biased, but I think it's, 

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there's not a platform. 
I don't think for con which by 

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the way is smaller than Amazon 
ads, as of last quarter. 

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That's something I've tried to 
highlight two people. 

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Is that I hear often, like 
people say I want to buy Google 

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because YouTube so big and it's 
growing so fast and it's just 

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because you interact with it, 
but a lot of people aren't even 

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aware, they're not even aware 
that Amazon advertisers on 

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amazon.com that they heard that 
advertise. 

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It's an advertising platform. 
And then you're like, oh yeah. 

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I guess I see those little like 
sponsored listings. 

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I'm like yeah, that's a bigger. 
Those little sponsored listings 

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are like a bigger company than 
YouTube. 

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Yeah, absolutely. 
And it's not just those like 

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people think it's just those but
Amazon Using encompasses so much

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more. 
You know they have their IMDb TV

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which is like rebranding to 
Amazon free V this week. 

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I'm not a fan of the name but 
that's what its rebranding to 

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and it's this huge like free 
platform kind of like Roku. 

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You could just download the app 
and it's got, you know, tons of 

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movies and shows and I obviously
it's not the greatest content 

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like Netflix but it's completely
free. 

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And now that Amazon close that 
mzm deal, they're moving so much

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content to it. 
There's actually some decent. 

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Content on there. 
You know, I'm, I'm a little 

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older than you are. 
And, you know, some of these 

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movies like Tommy Boy and office
space, and that kind of stuff I 

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do enjoy that kind of stuff, 
right? 

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Right there. 
Great. 

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And I think they wanted to just 
have free in the name. 

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I see what the freebie name. 
Correct. 

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Quran. 
You know. 

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So I guess they had, they 
probably had some marketing and 

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Dad other. 
It's a big thing to have free 

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TV. 
Because look, you talk about 

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Amazon's advertising, okay? 
They launched their own 

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televisions. 
October November. 

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And now those televisions are 
going out into every home and, 

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you know, Amazon takes a big 
chunk of advertising on their 

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fire TVs from other companies as
well. 

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So, you know, they got tons of 
these firesticks now, they have 

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their own TVs, you know, their 
advertising through that through

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twitch you note, which has 
billions of minutes viewed, 

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every month, you can go on a 
website like twitch tracker and 

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track. 
All the data twitch is, it's a 

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little mini YouTube, it's it's 
growing rapidly. 

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And Amazon just has so many 
levers to pull in advertising. 

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Now, they're talking about 
in-store advertising at Whole 

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Foods and Amazon forest. 
There's just so many things 

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where advertising is going to 
keep growing and be a creative 

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to the free cash flow for years.
Well, why do you think that this

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just gets overshadowed by other 
parts of the company? 

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Because it seems like investors 
are not paying attention to 

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this. 
Like the Sensi advertising 

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business has really like sword 
and I've heard headlines about 

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it and stuff. 
You know the stock price hasn't 

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moved at all. 
Like not even budged and I feel 

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like it must be something else. 
Overshadowing the advertising 

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business and all these new 
developments it is this massive 

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capex. 
Like I don't think people really

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grasp how massive this capex is,
okay. 

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Like you have people think 
Tesla's the most Innovative 

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company in the world, right? 
Tesla spent 2 billion on R&D 

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last year. 
Amazon, spent fifty six billion,

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like these numbers are just so 
big that like people can't. 

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Raspberry and you talk to people
and they think that Amazon's 

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just this like retailer, but all
this Rd goes into so many bets. 

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Alexa has like something I think
10,000 people on the team 

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working on it. 
You know, you think Alexa is 

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just this little thing in your 
house and order things from, but

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there's 10,000 people working on
that thing, and then you've got 

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Zoosk and then you've got Kuiper
and then you've got the walk out

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00:12:08,900 --> 00:12:10,600
Tech. 
And now you've got this by with 

225
00:12:10,600 --> 00:12:13,000
prime. 
They just have so much that 

226
00:12:13,000 --> 00:12:15,300
they're doing and that's what 
that's what Concerns me. 

227
00:12:15,300 --> 00:12:19,100
It's you're doing too many 
things at once, you know, maybe 

228
00:12:19,100 --> 00:12:22,200
they can pull it off maybe but 
the market just doesn't care 

229
00:12:22,200 --> 00:12:24,500
anymore. 
The market is just telling them.

230
00:12:24,700 --> 00:12:26,800
Hey guys, can you please make 
some money already? 

231
00:12:26,800 --> 00:12:28,900
Like this is getting, this is 
getting old. 

232
00:12:29,500 --> 00:12:33,200
Yeah, I feel like it's kind of a
some people invest in Amazon 

233
00:12:33,200 --> 00:12:35,500
because they consider it like a 
spawning business, like you're 

234
00:12:35,500 --> 00:12:37,900
invested in it, and they just 
keep creating new creating new 

235
00:12:37,900 --> 00:12:39,300
things for their shareholders 
and stuff. 

236
00:12:39,300 --> 00:12:42,500
But it is, it is crazy at this 
point like looking at their free

237
00:12:42,500 --> 00:12:46,200
cash flow euro per year. 
And the fact that it's swung 

238
00:12:46,200 --> 00:12:50,200
into the - and 2021 to a huge 
extent and it was it was 

239
00:12:50,200 --> 00:12:53,200
trending up before then. 
But and then, I don't even think

240
00:12:53,200 --> 00:12:56,100
the free cash flow prior to 2021
was really reflective of the 

241
00:12:56,108 --> 00:12:58,700
company, their ability to 
generate free cash flow if they 

242
00:12:58,700 --> 00:13:02,700
wanted. 
But yeah, I you know, I have the

243
00:13:02,700 --> 00:13:07,000
same concerns about that. 
It's they don't seem focused on 

244
00:13:07,500 --> 00:13:10,400
shareholders at all. 
They do, you know, when I, when 

245
00:13:10,400 --> 00:13:12,700
I was doing my research on 
Amazon and just kind of looking 

246
00:13:12,700 --> 00:13:15,800
to the company, I think part of 
my All case for it. 

247
00:13:16,000 --> 00:13:18,000
And I don't know if you see it 
the same way but my bull case 

248
00:13:18,000 --> 00:13:21,400
was basically they're not 
focused on shareholders and I 

249
00:13:21,408 --> 00:13:24,400
think they're going to be forced
to transition in the caring 

250
00:13:24,400 --> 00:13:27,600
about shareholders and doing a 
lot of the things like like a 

251
00:13:27,700 --> 00:13:31,100
like apple, Microsoft and 
Google, do BuyBacks stock, 

252
00:13:31,100 --> 00:13:35,000
splits, generating, profits, and
free cash flow. 

253
00:13:36,100 --> 00:13:37,600
Because in my opinion, I think 
they can. 

254
00:13:37,600 --> 00:13:41,000
If they, if they tried to Dial 
Dial things to profitability, 

255
00:13:41,000 --> 00:13:42,600
right? 
Like everything right now is 

256
00:13:42,600 --> 00:13:46,400
geared towards. 
Capex and spending and expansion

257
00:13:46,400 --> 00:13:48,700
and scaling, and I feel like if 
they dialed it towards 

258
00:13:48,700 --> 00:13:51,300
profitability would see a lot 
lot different numbers. 

259
00:13:52,100 --> 00:13:55,700
Absolutely, I mean, you can tell
in the last 90 days. 

260
00:13:56,200 --> 00:13:59,400
Something's changed inside 
Amazon's management where 

261
00:13:59,400 --> 00:14:02,800
they're almost in a panic that 
they have to get the stock up. 

262
00:14:02,900 --> 00:14:04,800
You know. 
There there's a big Exodus of 

263
00:14:04,800 --> 00:14:11,200
talent from AWS and it's not 
that AWS is losing market share 

264
00:14:11,200 --> 00:14:13,100
anything. 
It's just Amazon, isn't the 

265
00:14:13,100 --> 00:14:17,400
greatest payer but a Of people 
work there because they want a 

266
00:14:17,400 --> 00:14:19,900
piece of the equity. 
But when Equity does nothing for

267
00:14:19,900 --> 00:14:22,800
two years and these other 
companies come calling and 

268
00:14:22,800 --> 00:14:27,400
they're golfing, you huge 
bonuses to leave, and you just 

269
00:14:27,400 --> 00:14:29,300
sitting there. 
They might, they might be 

270
00:14:29,300 --> 00:14:33,300
getting some Netflix employees 
and Facebook employees here 

271
00:14:33,300 --> 00:14:35,100
soon, right? 
But no, I'm serious. 

272
00:14:35,100 --> 00:14:38,400
In the last 90 days. 
They've made a series of moves, 

273
00:14:38,400 --> 00:14:40,600
you would never see Amazon make 
right? 

274
00:14:40,600 --> 00:14:43,400
First, they split the stock, 
right, they Panic split it. 

275
00:14:43,500 --> 00:14:45,800
They split it at the Lowe's. 
As if you look, I'll never 

276
00:14:45,800 --> 00:14:48,500
forget that day. 
It was this day like March 10th 

277
00:14:48,500 --> 00:14:53,400
or whatever, it was Google and 
Microsoft were up like 5% and 

278
00:14:53,400 --> 00:14:56,200
Amazon, completely lagged. 
Like it has for the last year, 

279
00:14:56,400 --> 00:14:58,700
and after hours, they announced 
that split like, I feel like 

280
00:14:58,700 --> 00:15:00,300
that day. 
They were like, okay, this is 

281
00:15:00,300 --> 00:15:03,600
it, we're never going up again. 
Unless we do something drastic, 

282
00:15:03,600 --> 00:15:06,000
they did it that day. 
And then they announced the 

283
00:15:06,000 --> 00:15:07,800
buyback, which is a token 
buyback. 

284
00:15:07,800 --> 00:15:10,300
I mean, 10 billions just like, 
probably buying back the stock 

285
00:15:10,300 --> 00:15:13,400
based compensation, but they did
those two things. 

286
00:15:13,400 --> 00:15:15,800
And then if you look throughout 
the They did things like they 

287
00:15:15,800 --> 00:15:18,300
close down to warehouses that 
they were about to begin 

288
00:15:18,300 --> 00:15:20,300
building, right about that? 
Yep. 

289
00:15:20,300 --> 00:15:23,900
Great, they did that, then they 
closed the unprofitable stores. 

290
00:15:23,900 --> 00:15:27,200
The Amazon go stores, the not 
the Amazon coasters, the Amazon 

291
00:15:27,200 --> 00:15:29,000
four-star, the enzyme 
bookstores. 

292
00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:32,300
So they're cutting me 
unprofitable stuff and then they

293
00:15:32,300 --> 00:15:36,600
did things like they raised 
employee cash comp 100%, right? 

294
00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:38,700
There's probably a ton of 
employees fed up with the stock 

295
00:15:38,700 --> 00:15:41,900
like okay, fine, we'll give them
a raise and you can just tell 

296
00:15:41,900 --> 00:15:45,000
these are moves that managers 
like God, we have to get This 

297
00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:47,000
stock up. 
This is this is really starting 

298
00:15:47,000 --> 00:15:48,400
to weigh on us. 
Yeah. 

299
00:15:49,000 --> 00:15:53,500
Yeah I think they got a lot of 
leeway, you know, a couple of 

300
00:15:53,500 --> 00:15:56,400
years ago to be able to do 
Investments and not care about 

301
00:15:56,400 --> 00:15:58,900
the stock price and like you 
said, I think it's becoming a 

302
00:15:58,908 --> 00:16:03,200
main focus. 
Now, you know, in terms of 

303
00:16:03,200 --> 00:16:07,300
earnings predictions on Amazon, 
but a lot of people say stuff 

304
00:16:07,300 --> 00:16:12,400
like do you think EPS is going 
to be wildly - next quarter 

305
00:16:12,500 --> 00:16:17,200
because of the ribbon steak? 
And what we saw last quarter, a 

306
00:16:17,200 --> 00:16:20,500
lot of people think that Amazon 
basically got a pass that 

307
00:16:20,500 --> 00:16:23,500
quarter because of the review in
state, get through the EPS so 

308
00:16:23,500 --> 00:16:27,500
far into the positive that like,
you know, whatever the market 

309
00:16:27,500 --> 00:16:30,300
Robo, buyers and sellers and 
stuff like bought the stock off 

310
00:16:30,300 --> 00:16:34,100
of it or, you know, investors 
kind of like Overlook the capex 

311
00:16:34,100 --> 00:16:37,000
because EPS is so positive. 
But a lot of people think that 

312
00:16:37,000 --> 00:16:38,800
that is just because of the 
review and steak. 

313
00:16:38,900 --> 00:16:40,500
Do you think that's going to 
have an effect? 

314
00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:43,400
How do you view that? 
I don't look. 

315
00:16:43,400 --> 00:16:47,500
If you go back to last, Order. 
We pop, like I forgot what it 

316
00:16:47,500 --> 00:16:50,900
was, like 15 or 70%. 
Unlike I think it was like, 

317
00:16:50,900 --> 00:16:54,500
record dollar volume. 
I don't have the, the chart in 

318
00:16:54,500 --> 00:16:58,600
front of me but I remember that 
day being some massive number of

319
00:16:58,600 --> 00:17:02,100
shares and dollar volume is one 
of their biggest ever if not 

320
00:17:02,100 --> 00:17:06,500
like the biggest ever. 
And what I would say is people 

321
00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:09,200
that think about rivi and are 
just the wrong. 

322
00:17:09,200 --> 00:17:13,400
The reason, the stock popped is 
because AWS accelerated, right? 

323
00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:18,400
It grew 40% And meanwhile last 
quarter as your and GCC both 

324
00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:21,800
decelerate it from smaller basis
and so we had had this whole 

325
00:17:21,800 --> 00:17:26,000
fear for so long that like 
Google and Microsoft were eating

326
00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:29,400
away at Amazon and Amazon 
completely, you know, squash 

327
00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:32,200
those fears last quarter and 
that's why the stock popped 40% 

328
00:17:32,200 --> 00:17:36,600
because look, retail was plus 
1%, 1p was plus 1%. 

329
00:17:36,700 --> 00:17:38,600
And in the past that would have 
killed the stock. 

330
00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:42,200
And I actually think this 
quarter 1 P will be - year over 

331
00:17:42,200 --> 00:17:44,600
year, so and I don't think it 
will matter. 

332
00:17:44,700 --> 00:17:47,100
As long as AWS accelerates 
again. 

333
00:17:47,500 --> 00:17:50,700
Yeah, I feel the same way. 
I think the market can be dumb 

334
00:17:50,700 --> 00:17:53,500
sometimes, but I think it's 
smart enough to, or at least 

335
00:17:53,500 --> 00:17:57,300
efficient enough to factor in 
that ribbons not fundamental. 

336
00:17:57,300 --> 00:17:59,500
It's not fundamental to Amazon 
at all. 

337
00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:02,600
Like we have to look at the 
operating income, this quarter 

338
00:18:02,600 --> 00:18:06,300
and Riven Riven will have no 
effect on that Raven will affect

339
00:18:06,300 --> 00:18:09,400
EPS, right? 
And EPS is not something that 

340
00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:12,500
matters to Amazon, it's about 
operating income and free cash 

341
00:18:12,500 --> 00:18:15,300
flow. 
And so if they make Heads on 

342
00:18:15,300 --> 00:18:17,000
operating income and free cash 
flow. 

343
00:18:17,500 --> 00:18:19,400
They're not going to have a 
problem, okay? 

344
00:18:19,600 --> 00:18:22,800
If that free cash flow and 
operating income below, what 

345
00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:25,500
investors are wanting over and 
we've got issues. 

346
00:18:26,100 --> 00:18:31,300
Yeah then we got some big 
issues, you know that the the 

347
00:18:31,300 --> 00:18:36,200
other concern, excuse me, the 
other concern is You said that 

348
00:18:36,400 --> 00:18:39,600
so you said that you think 
retail is going to potentially 

349
00:18:39,600 --> 00:18:44,100
come in your over your company -
this year, correct for one knee.

350
00:18:44,500 --> 00:18:46,500
What is your? 
Why do you believe that? 

351
00:18:46,500 --> 00:18:47,900
I guess, what is your thesis on 
there? 

352
00:18:48,300 --> 00:18:51,300
Well we you can tell it's been 
decelerating the last couple 

353
00:18:51,300 --> 00:18:53,500
quarters, right? 
We had that huge boom during 

354
00:18:53,500 --> 00:18:57,500
covid then it began to slow last
quarter's plus 1 percent this 

355
00:18:57,500 --> 00:19:00,100
quarter. 
You have a loss of a lot of 

356
00:19:00,100 --> 00:19:03,900
stimulus and I have a lot of big
sellers that follow me on 

357
00:19:03,900 --> 00:19:06,600
Twitter. 
I mean, guys, Sell 10, 20, 30 

358
00:19:06,600 --> 00:19:10,100
million dollars a year on Amazon
and, you know, I chat with them 

359
00:19:10,100 --> 00:19:14,100
regularly and a lot of them had 
slower than expected first 

360
00:19:14,100 --> 00:19:16,300
quarter's now, those guys are 
third-party sellers. 

361
00:19:16,300 --> 00:19:19,700
Those aren't first party Sellers
and for them though, right? 

362
00:19:19,700 --> 00:19:21,300
It is indicated. 
It is indicated. 

363
00:19:21,300 --> 00:19:22,500
But here's the thing, here's the
thing. 

364
00:19:22,500 --> 00:19:26,000
You look at the recent credit 
card data from like MasterCard 

365
00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:29,000
releases their Master Card 
spending pulse every month and 

366
00:19:29,000 --> 00:19:31,200
then American Express just had 
their earnings. 

367
00:19:31,200 --> 00:19:33,500
The consumer is spending all 
kinds of money. 

368
00:19:33,500 --> 00:19:35,000
I mean, they're spending all 
kinds of money. 

369
00:19:35,200 --> 00:19:40,000
Now, CNBC will tell you it's 
like 100% on travel and not one 

370
00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:42,500
dollar is going to Amazon or 
anything. 

371
00:19:42,700 --> 00:19:44,900
I don't know. 
We're going to have to see but 

372
00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:48,500
the Lost stimulus is pretty big 
for Amazon, you know there I'm 

373
00:19:48,500 --> 00:19:51,600
not gonna say it's like massive.
I'm just saying I would say, you

374
00:19:51,600 --> 00:19:55,300
know, 1p might decelerate and be
minus 1 percent or something 

375
00:19:55,300 --> 00:19:56,700
this quarter. 
Yeah, you know. 

376
00:19:57,500 --> 00:19:59,100
Yeah. 
I think that's, I think it's a 

377
00:19:59,600 --> 00:20:01,900
strong possibility when I look 
at it. 

378
00:20:02,500 --> 00:20:05,900
A lot of the companies that had 
benefited from covid-19, That I 

379
00:20:05,900 --> 00:20:09,900
assumed the benefit would have 
worn off by now, it's still 

380
00:20:09,900 --> 00:20:13,200
taking longer to kind of like, 
you know, see that transition 

381
00:20:13,200 --> 00:20:14,800
and to have them slow down a 
little bit. 

382
00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:18,700
So if Amazon's retail benefited 
from covid I could see it 

383
00:20:18,700 --> 00:20:20,900
slowing down a bit as Amazon 
gets faster. 

384
00:20:20,900 --> 00:20:23,900
With the same day delivery is, I
know in my household. 

385
00:20:24,300 --> 00:20:28,000
Our orders are up like 200% from
two years ago, just because now 

386
00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:31,200
we're getting to the point here 
where you're getting packages in

387
00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:33,700
four or five hours. 
And so it's completely 

388
00:20:33,700 --> 00:20:38,000
eliminating the need Of like me 
running to the store to buy, you

389
00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:40,500
know, like a box of Tylenol or 
something, right? 

390
00:20:40,700 --> 00:20:44,000
And what it's doing is you have 
to have a thirty five dollar 

391
00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:47,500
minimum to get same day. 
Delivery it's like forcing me to

392
00:20:47,500 --> 00:20:50,800
buy stuff. 
I don't necessarily need right 

393
00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:54,300
to get it that same day. 
Yeah I've noticed the same 

394
00:20:54,300 --> 00:20:56,500
thing. 
My deliveries have been the 

395
00:20:56,500 --> 00:20:59,300
improvement over the past couple
of years has been incredible. 

396
00:20:59,600 --> 00:21:02,900
Like a couple of years ago, I 
was being actually becoming more

397
00:21:02,900 --> 00:21:04,900
frustrated with Amazon because 
I'm like, why am I paying for 

398
00:21:05,300 --> 00:21:06,800
Membership. 
When there's not that many 

399
00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:09,700
primed items like there's it's 
like one out of every like seven

400
00:21:09,700 --> 00:21:13,700
items is Amazon Prime and I get 
this lower shipping on them now.

401
00:21:13,700 --> 00:21:16,900
Like everything seems like it's 
primed and they're showing up. 

402
00:21:17,100 --> 00:21:20,700
I'll order him like one you 
know, like a late evening and 

403
00:21:20,700 --> 00:21:23,400
they'll show up the next 
morning, like oh my gosh, do 

404
00:21:23,400 --> 00:21:24,700
they have a center right next to
us? 

405
00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:27,900
They must have opened a new 
Warehouse like right down the 

406
00:21:27,900 --> 00:21:30,400
street or something, because 
we're getting packages way 

407
00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:32,300
quicker quicker than we did a 
couple years ago. 

408
00:21:32,900 --> 00:21:35,200
Absolutely, that's that's been 
the whole point of this. 

409
00:21:35,400 --> 00:21:38,300
Hapax, you know, Amazon 
management believes that the 

410
00:21:38,300 --> 00:21:40,900
faster people can get things the
more they'll order. 

411
00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:45,700
And it's just expensive to build
up that kind of logistics. 

412
00:21:45,700 --> 00:21:49,900
You know, they like I made post 
on Twitter of the square footage

413
00:21:49,900 --> 00:21:52,300
that Amazon's built out and it's
crazy. 

414
00:21:52,300 --> 00:21:55,300
But if you look at their 
distribution centers, like last 

415
00:21:55,300 --> 00:21:58,300
year, they added something like 
150 million square feet, which 

416
00:21:58,300 --> 00:22:02,000
is more distribution than, like,
Walmart has and they did it in 

417
00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:04,800
one year, right? 
And they did it the day before, 

418
00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:06,900
and they have a A ton of what 
this fictitional. 

419
00:22:07,300 --> 00:22:08,500
Yeah. 
Yeah. 

420
00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:10,900
So yeah. 
So just incremental additional 

421
00:22:11,500 --> 00:22:14,900
well, massive over 100 million 
square feet and are going to do 

422
00:22:14,900 --> 00:22:17,600
it again this year too. 
And so yeah, there's they're 

423
00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:19,700
building out this insane 
Logistics. 

424
00:22:19,700 --> 00:22:22,900
But look last week, they just 
launched just by, with Prime and

425
00:22:22,900 --> 00:22:25,200
so they're telling you, we were 
building it for a reason. 

426
00:22:25,300 --> 00:22:27,300
Right now. 
They're going to take Prime 

427
00:22:27,300 --> 00:22:31,000
offline and and that's what 
Jesse said, during a CNBC 

428
00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:36,400
interview, two weeks ago, he 
said 85% of Commerce is still 

429
00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:41,600
offline and so Amazon's now 
trying to get the customers that

430
00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:43,600
aren't using it. 
And I think it's a big move, 

431
00:22:43,600 --> 00:22:46,600
man, because think about how 
many times you go to another 

432
00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:49,600
website and you want to buy 
something, but you don't want to

433
00:22:49,608 --> 00:22:51,300
make a new account. 
You don't want to input your 

434
00:22:51,300 --> 00:22:54,400
credit card information. 
All the time, I'm super exactly.

435
00:22:55,500 --> 00:22:58,400
I have dual reasons why I don't 
do that one is because it's 

436
00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:00,000
inconvenient. 
But the other one is because I 

437
00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:03,500
don't I know how difficult it is
to return stuff from like third 

438
00:23:03,500 --> 00:23:04,800
parties. 
Exactly. 

439
00:23:05,300 --> 00:23:07,200
Absolutely. 
So I know with Amazon, I'm gonna

440
00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:08,700
be able to return stuff. 
It's a huge. 

441
00:23:09,300 --> 00:23:13,500
Exactly. 
And so I'm interested on that 

442
00:23:13,500 --> 00:23:18,300
note the Amazon expanding 
expanding their Prime like by 

443
00:23:18,300 --> 00:23:21,300
with prime rate. 
For those of you not familiar, 

444
00:23:21,300 --> 00:23:25,300
they added the ability for 
third-party websites, right? 

445
00:23:25,300 --> 00:23:28,800
To have a by with prime button 
where you can be on a different 

446
00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:31,400
website but by with Amazon Prime
and it's fulfilled through 

447
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:34,400
Amazon with their with their 
customer service, right? 

448
00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:38,400
Correct. 
So how does this fit with 

449
00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:40,300
Shopify? 
What do you think like Shopify 

450
00:23:40,300 --> 00:23:43,100
investors are? 
How, what is their bullish kind 

451
00:23:43,100 --> 00:23:46,300
of take on this? 
Do they, you know, it's gonna 

452
00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:50,400
it's kind of the end of Shopify 
and not, not the end of Shopify,

453
00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:54,200
but the end of shopify's 
potential growth and iíve been a

454
00:23:54,208 --> 00:23:56,300
big hater Shopify for a long 
time. 

455
00:23:56,300 --> 00:23:59,400
I mean, you can go back and see 
my tweets, but the thing is, the

456
00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:02,900
whole Shopify thesis for years, 
was that okay? 

457
00:24:02,900 --> 00:24:04,600
It saves sellers, a ton of 
money. 

458
00:24:05,100 --> 00:24:07,600
But on the other hand, its 
customers are doing all the 

459
00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:10,900
buying and customers, only care 
about convenience to them, 

460
00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:13,500
right? 
It's not like, we're not here to

461
00:24:13,500 --> 00:24:16,200
worry about how much we save 
sellers, right? 

462
00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:18,200
We're here. 
How quickly does my package 

463
00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:21,000
come, how easy is it to return? 
It like you just said all those 

464
00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:25,500
things and Amazon is just 
getting involved in that space. 

465
00:24:25,500 --> 00:24:29,900
Now, they did it a day after 
Shopify made that acquisition 

466
00:24:29,900 --> 00:24:33,400
for like deliver. 
It was there trying to get into 

467
00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:36,000
Logistics, but look chef, I 
can't do it. 

468
00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:38,900
They announced this year, their 
capex is going to be 200 million

469
00:24:38,900 --> 00:24:41,200
this year. 
You could never build a 

470
00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:44,900
logistics Network or anything. 
They really, I always thought 

471
00:24:44,900 --> 00:24:48,600
the end game was going to be 
Shopify, sellers, fulfill with 

472
00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:50,000
Amazon. 
And that's what this is 

473
00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:52,500
basically going to do. 
It's going to take all those 

474
00:24:52,900 --> 00:24:55,800
smaller websites and are going 
to start fulfilling with Amazon,

475
00:24:55,800 --> 00:24:57,800
because that's what Amazon did, 
right? 

476
00:24:57,800 --> 00:25:02,100
They made everyone a custom to 
the super fast delivery. 

477
00:25:02,100 --> 00:25:04,800
And now, if you get a package in
like three days from FedEx, 

478
00:25:04,900 --> 00:25:06,700
You're like this, this was 
eternity. 

479
00:25:06,700 --> 00:25:07,800
I'm not doing it again. 
Yeah. 

480
00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:08,900
You know what? 
No one wants that? 

481
00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:12,600
No, no, you forgot. 
Even what you ordered and how 

482
00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:15,900
much you paid for it. 
How long ago, it was right? 

483
00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:18,800
Yeah, with Shopify. 
I've already heard the bull case

484
00:25:19,100 --> 00:25:21,400
and I was kind of bullish on it 
like a year ago, to be honest. 

485
00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:24,300
But actually sold that one 
before it's huge downfall 

486
00:25:24,300 --> 00:25:27,400
because I was like, I went and 
listened to like that Twitter 

487
00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:29,600
space with. 
I can't remember his name, the 

488
00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:34,300
guy that sells like a million 
dollars on Shopify or on Amazon 

489
00:25:34,300 --> 00:25:37,500
and he runs a Opposite Shopify 
store and he's like, look, I 

490
00:25:37,500 --> 00:25:40,600
can't I can't make any sales on 
my Shopify story. 

491
00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:44,300
Like, even if I run ads people 
visit the Shopify store, they 

492
00:25:44,300 --> 00:25:46,500
look at the products. 
They want, they'll cross check 

493
00:25:46,500 --> 00:25:50,000
it against Amazon and buy from 
Amazon, you know, and since 

494
00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:52,600
Amazon doesn't let you price it 
lower, if you want to sell them 

495
00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:56,400
both they have those exclusive 
agreements, he can't sell 

496
00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:59,800
anything on Shopify and another 
thing I was thinking about is 

497
00:26:00,100 --> 00:26:04,400
Shopify has always pitched 
itself is as being like the one 

498
00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:08,100
that have Feet Amazon, right? 
Like for the small for the small

499
00:26:08,100 --> 00:26:11,500
businesses and Amazon's is bad 
company that will steal your 

500
00:26:11,500 --> 00:26:14,400
data, still your marketing and 
put other products right next to

501
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:17,400
yours. 
All those concerns if you're 

502
00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:19,700
really concerned about being 
placed next, to competitors 

503
00:26:19,700 --> 00:26:23,500
products via concerned about 
them, taking your data on, like 

504
00:26:23,500 --> 00:26:27,200
your listings and all of that, I
don't think that this would have

505
00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:29,400
the same concern. 
Just having a checkout button, 

506
00:26:30,700 --> 00:26:32,200
you have your own website at 
that point. 

507
00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:36,300
So I think a lot of the 
distinction that If I had prior 

508
00:26:36,300 --> 00:26:39,400
to, this is just vanished. 
All right. 

509
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:43,700
Look, the move is big for Amazon
because again, they built out 

510
00:26:43,700 --> 00:26:47,100
all the square footage and 
fulfillment capability. 

511
00:26:47,300 --> 00:26:49,900
The thing with Amazon, I don't 
know what you do, or don't know,

512
00:26:49,900 --> 00:26:53,700
i-i've made post about it but 
basically Amazon charges sellers

513
00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:56,400
for storage by the cubic foot, 
right? 

514
00:26:56,500 --> 00:27:01,000
So like right now, when sellers 
join us by with prime offline, 

515
00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:03,400
they're going to have to ship 
whatever items. 

516
00:27:03,400 --> 00:27:05,400
They want you eat it. 
You don't have to have all your 

517
00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:08,200
items with by with prime, it's 
actually in beta right now, like

518
00:27:08,200 --> 00:27:09,300
AWS in. 
Years. 

519
00:27:09,300 --> 00:27:12,000
And other people are like 
testing it right now and so 

520
00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:14,500
you're going to have to ship 
your items to Amazon just like 

521
00:27:14,500 --> 00:27:17,600
it's on amazon.com, right? 
And so you're going to have to 

522
00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:20,900
pay storage fees for that, and 
Amazon is going to house your 

523
00:27:20,900 --> 00:27:22,800
stuff. 
And when a transaction is made, 

524
00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:26,200
they're going to ship your stuff
out, but Amazon charges you by 

525
00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:28,800
the day for storage. 
So, when you start sending an 

526
00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:32,900
inventory right there, 
collecting read off of you until

527
00:27:32,900 --> 00:27:37,500
it sells. 
And so it's a, it's a huge new 

528
00:27:37,500 --> 00:27:40,500
businessman because you're 
Talking so much business 

529
00:27:40,500 --> 00:27:45,100
offline. 
Can now add inventory to Amazon 

530
00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:50,600
to be there for sale and it's 
it's a really, really big move. 

531
00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:53,300
And no analyst is really modeled
it yet because it's almost 

532
00:27:53,300 --> 00:27:55,800
impossible to model. 
What is this worth? 

533
00:27:55,800 --> 00:27:57,600
How do you model that? 
You think you'll be a new big 

534
00:27:57,600 --> 00:28:00,800
line item like their ad business
where they break it out and you 

535
00:28:00,800 --> 00:28:02,400
can look at the growth of it 
over time. 

536
00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:04,800
Yeah. 
I mean look it's like AWS. 

537
00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:09,400
This is how AWS started right 
out like where did Come from 

538
00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:12,500
right Amazon built out this 
thing that fulfilled their 

539
00:28:12,500 --> 00:28:14,700
needs, right. 
It fulfilled their needs and 

540
00:28:14,700 --> 00:28:18,300
then they sold the excess 
capacity and now you have this 

541
00:28:18,500 --> 00:28:22,000
by with prime or Amazon built 
out, this massive Logistics that

542
00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:25,000
fulfills their needs and now 
they're selling the excess 

543
00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:26,500
capacity. 
Yeah. 

544
00:28:26,500 --> 00:28:30,800
So it's you know, warehouse and 
Logistics is a service, kind of 

545
00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:32,300
they're going to be correct 
renting. 

546
00:28:32,300 --> 00:28:34,200
Yeah, extra space. 
Well they do that with 

547
00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:36,600
everything right there doing 
that with their like they're 

548
00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:38,600
going to be transporting other 
people's products as well. 

549
00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:41,200
Two are like correct, FedEx and 
USPS. 

550
00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:44,300
Absolutely, those are big 
companies and UPS is like 150 

551
00:28:44,300 --> 00:28:46,800
billion dollar market cap. 
You know, these are big 

552
00:28:46,800 --> 00:28:49,400
companies, but here's the thing,
UPS and FedEx. 

553
00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:53,100
Don't, how's your goods? 
Amazon's going to take all these

554
00:28:53,100 --> 00:28:56,500
websites in these websites, are 
going to have to store their 

555
00:28:56,500 --> 00:28:58,900
goods, with Amazon to get that 
by with prime. 

556
00:28:58,900 --> 00:29:01,400
Because look by with prime means
you're going to get it in like 

557
00:29:01,500 --> 00:29:05,000
you know a day, right? 
So they have to store their 

558
00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:07,600
goods with Amazon. 
That's the big difference is 

559
00:29:07,600 --> 00:29:09,700
it's creating, you know? 
All those fees. 

560
00:29:09,700 --> 00:29:13,400
I mean I've posted before the I 
believe it's something like 80 

561
00:29:13,400 --> 00:29:16,500
cents a cubic foot. 
That's what they charge to store

562
00:29:16,500 --> 00:29:19,300
Goods so you can just think 
about all these new Goods coming

563
00:29:19,300 --> 00:29:23,100
in and then the fourth quarter 
triples it's like 240 per foot. 

564
00:29:23,300 --> 00:29:27,700
So hundreds of millions of 
square feet housing all this new

565
00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:30,200
inventory. 
Interesting. 

566
00:29:30,700 --> 00:29:33,100
Yeah I haven't modeled that 
business out at all like there's

567
00:29:33,100 --> 00:29:36,300
so many parts of it, you know 
I'm like you know I model like 

568
00:29:36,300 --> 00:29:39,600
the AWS and kind of like sure 
subscriptions and The ads, but 

569
00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:41,600
there's three different 
businesses you can go into. 

570
00:29:41,800 --> 00:29:45,400
I think that's why it's such a 
difficult company to understand 

571
00:29:45,400 --> 00:29:47,500
and model. 
Like it just has like you 

572
00:29:47,500 --> 00:29:49,200
mentioned, they just go into so 
many different things. 

573
00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:54,100
Sure, I want to, okay, so let me
let me think about this for a 

574
00:29:54,100 --> 00:29:58,800
second, I want to go into what, 
where do you see before we get 

575
00:29:58,800 --> 00:30:00,600
into? 
Kind of like risks and potential

576
00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:04,100
downside, out of all the various
things Amazon does. 

577
00:30:04,400 --> 00:30:08,700
What do you see is like the 
biggest value in the company? 

578
00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:13,100
Like if we're looking at this 
from a valuation, Warren Buffett

579
00:30:13,100 --> 00:30:16,100
Benjamin Graham perspective. 
Like, where is the Deep value in

580
00:30:16,100 --> 00:30:18,100
Amazon? 
Where's the margin of safety? 

581
00:30:18,600 --> 00:30:21,300
Why would you invest an outsize 
position in it? 

582
00:30:22,100 --> 00:30:24,000
Well, I mean, it's all AWS, 
right? 

583
00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:27,000
It's all like Andy Jaffe send 
his interview two weeks ago, 

584
00:30:27,400 --> 00:30:32,800
five percent of it spend is in 
the cloud today and with that, 

585
00:30:32,800 --> 00:30:35,200
look how big these numbers are 
from AWS, right? 

586
00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:37,600
Sixty-two billion. 
Last year, I think we're going 

587
00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:40,800
to be at 85 billion. 
Liyan this year, I mean what 

588
00:30:40,800 --> 00:30:46,400
happens when 50 percent of it 
spends in the cloud or even 25%,

589
00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:49,500
right? 
These are some huge numbers and 

590
00:30:50,100 --> 00:30:53,500
it's really hard analysts are so
wrong on AWS. 

591
00:30:53,500 --> 00:30:56,900
Like you look out five years 
ago, they were modeling 20 

592
00:30:56,900 --> 00:30:59,200
percent growth for last year. 
Obviously they didn't know. 

593
00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:02,900
Covid-19 accom accelerate things
whatever but analysts have a 

594
00:31:02,908 --> 00:31:07,700
hard time because they they 
always think things have to 

595
00:31:07,700 --> 00:31:10,100
regress. 
The time and that's not 

596
00:31:10,100 --> 00:31:14,500
necessarily true version and the
celebrating you know, all that 

597
00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:17,800
even this year Credit Suisse I 
posted a chart the other day 

598
00:31:18,100 --> 00:31:23,000
they have AWS at 19% growth and 
Q4 like if a dumb just grows at 

599
00:31:23,008 --> 00:31:26,200
19% in Q4, I might sell my steak
because that would just be a 

600
00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:29,000
massive disappointment. 
Yeah that's that's a really 

601
00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:32,400
quick reversion back to where 
they write but I think that's 

602
00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:37,200
unlikely but yeah no it makes 
sense I have a buddy that works 

603
00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:40,000
for a publicly traded company. 
That does about two billion 

604
00:31:40,000 --> 00:31:44,800
dollars of Revenue per year and 
they still stay still software. 

605
00:31:44,800 --> 00:31:49,200
It's like a tech company and he 
said that that was about a year 

606
00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:53,100
and a half ago, their team, 
their developers like, they 

607
00:31:53,100 --> 00:31:57,000
wanted to stop moving, stop 
doing their own it spin, and put

608
00:31:57,000 --> 00:32:01,300
it on a cloud provider. 
And they, they literally run 

609
00:32:01,300 --> 00:32:04,000
their company off of Microsoft, 
right? 

610
00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:07,500
They all use Microsoft teams, 
their whole accounting, team 

611
00:32:07,500 --> 00:32:09,200
uses Word and Excel. 
Cell. 

612
00:32:09,200 --> 00:32:11,100
And, you know, the whole Suite 
of products that Microsoft 

613
00:32:11,100 --> 00:32:15,500
offers after they went and 
talked to their developers and 

614
00:32:15,500 --> 00:32:17,600
had all of them run analysis on 
which companies to go through, 

615
00:32:17,600 --> 00:32:21,600
for cloud, they want with AWS, 
they still despite the fact they

616
00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:25,100
had all like, all these things 
that could Mike migrate with 

617
00:32:25,100 --> 00:32:27,700
Azure, they still chose AWS over
it. 

618
00:32:27,900 --> 00:32:30,300
Now, I don't know the specific 
reasons why, but he said their 

619
00:32:30,300 --> 00:32:33,200
company went with that and 
they're like thrilled about it 

620
00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:35,500
over the past year and a half, 
not having to worry about their 

621
00:32:35,500 --> 00:32:39,600
own identities. 
Their it problems, They've been 

622
00:32:39,600 --> 00:32:43,300
moving more and more to the 
cloud, so they're putting their 

623
00:32:43,300 --> 00:32:44,600
basically running all over 
there. 

624
00:32:44,600 --> 00:32:48,300
I key on Amazon now and they 
just signed a three-year 

625
00:32:48,400 --> 00:32:50,600
contract. 
So I think we're going to see 

626
00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:53,800
more stuff like this where 
anytime a big companies wanting 

627
00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:56,900
to move more to the cloud and 
they do analysis on like, which 

628
00:32:56,900 --> 00:32:59,900
one has you know, which one has 
the best infrastructure? 

629
00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:04,500
The biggest tool kit, Microsoft 
might win some of them Google 

630
00:33:04,500 --> 00:33:07,100
Cloud. 
Might incentivize companies to 

631
00:33:07,100 --> 00:33:08,600
go with them. 
I think it's less. 

632
00:33:08,800 --> 00:33:10,900
Likely but I think the majority 
of them are going to continue to

633
00:33:10,900 --> 00:33:13,500
pick AWS. 
So and I think that's difficult 

634
00:33:13,500 --> 00:33:16,500
to model. 
It is very difficult to model 

635
00:33:16,500 --> 00:33:19,200
but more than that you have to 
just think of like Corporate 

636
00:33:19,200 --> 00:33:23,200
America like making that 
decision to stay on Prem versus 

637
00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:25,500
going to AWS. 
That could be the end of your 

638
00:33:25,500 --> 00:33:28,100
career as an executive, right? 
Like that could be a 

639
00:33:28,100 --> 00:33:31,100
career-ending move, if something
goes wrong on prep. 

640
00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:35,800
And so, moving to AWS, all these
companies are giving bonuses for

641
00:33:35,800 --> 00:33:39,300
cost savings. 
All those things and And it's 

642
00:33:39,300 --> 00:33:42,900
just it's safer over there, you 
know, when your on-prem so much 

643
00:33:42,900 --> 00:33:47,700
can be wrong, right? 
You could completely model the 

644
00:33:47,700 --> 00:33:50,800
usage wrong and you're 
overpaying or whatever when it's

645
00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:54,900
pays you go there, it's perfect,
there's no, you're not 

646
00:33:54,900 --> 00:33:59,500
overpaying for anything and so 
you know, it's just really hard 

647
00:33:59,500 --> 00:34:03,500
to make a case against why a 
company should be in the cloud. 

648
00:34:03,900 --> 00:34:05,100
Yeah, no. 
For sure. 

649
00:34:05,400 --> 00:34:08,600
So you view AWS is just a key 
component of this company. 

650
00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:10,400
It's the real. 
That's the thing that attracted 

651
00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:12,600
you to Amazon as an investment. 
Yeah. 

652
00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:14,500
Absolutely. 
I mean I don't own Walmart or 

653
00:34:14,500 --> 00:34:16,500
Target or any of these you know 
retails just something I have to

654
00:34:16,500 --> 00:34:20,800
put up with to own a piece of 
AWS but I think AWS in the long 

655
00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:23,900
run is probably the single best 
business in the world. 

656
00:34:23,900 --> 00:34:29,100
I know a lot will say Google 
AdWords but AWS is like a giant 

657
00:34:29,100 --> 00:34:30,500
utility company. 
Right. 

658
00:34:30,500 --> 00:34:34,000
It's like it's this huge utility
company and you have to pay your

659
00:34:34,000 --> 00:34:37,900
bill every month once you're on 
board and you know it's like 

660
00:34:37,900 --> 00:34:39,699
your home. 
Right, bad times. 

661
00:34:39,699 --> 00:34:41,600
Are you just gonna like turn off
the electricity? 

662
00:34:41,600 --> 00:34:43,900
I mean, no. 
I mean, AWS, like Powers the 

663
00:34:43,900 --> 00:34:46,400
internet, you know, a huge chunk
of it at least. 

664
00:34:46,800 --> 00:34:48,300
Yeah. 
You can't, you can't turn it 

665
00:34:48,300 --> 00:34:49,500
off. 
I mean their companies running 

666
00:34:49,500 --> 00:34:53,500
on it and besides companies like
everything that everybody uses 

667
00:34:53,500 --> 00:34:58,400
his running on it on that note. 
So I think most people would 

668
00:34:58,400 --> 00:35:02,900
agree with you that cloud cloud 
is an amazing business. 

669
00:35:03,200 --> 00:35:05,400
But from the outside 
perspective, a lot of people 

670
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:08,300
look at Amazon is just kind of 
like first. 

671
00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:10,200
You know it's kind of like 
Netflix. 

672
00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:13,100
It's like they got the first 
mover Advantage there. 

673
00:35:13,100 --> 00:35:15,200
It looks very good for them 
right now because they're the 

674
00:35:15,200 --> 00:35:18,100
biggest and they're kind of 
chugging along but you got you 

675
00:35:18,100 --> 00:35:21,400
got the HBO catching up that you
know, you got that Microsoft, 

676
00:35:21,400 --> 00:35:24,200
you got the Google, you got 
Oracle, you got Salesforce and 

677
00:35:24,200 --> 00:35:27,300
so on and so forth. 
And now a lot of people view it 

678
00:35:27,300 --> 00:35:30,700
as just kind of like commoditize
thing where you have all these 

679
00:35:30,700 --> 00:35:33,700
competitors. 
What are your thoughts on that? 

680
00:35:34,600 --> 00:35:39,200
I don't see much competition 
coming because this costs a lot 

681
00:35:39,200 --> 00:35:41,800
of money, right? 
This isn't like a space Regan of

682
00:35:41,800 --> 00:35:45,200
like a start-up, get into the 
cloud and come at Amazon, or 

683
00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:47,300
Google rich. 
Like these data centers cost a 

684
00:35:47,300 --> 00:35:52,500
fortune to build Amazon had a 
six year Head Start. 

685
00:35:52,500 --> 00:35:55,900
When it began with the cloud 
right before, Microsoft, got on,

686
00:35:55,900 --> 00:35:57,800
right? 
And the way customers are so 

687
00:35:57,800 --> 00:36:00,800
sticky on there, it's going to 
be really difficult to get 

688
00:36:00,800 --> 00:36:03,000
customers to leave. 
I saw one guy the other day, 

689
00:36:03,200 --> 00:36:05,700
tweet at me, that he thinks The 
future of cloud is going to be 

690
00:36:05,700 --> 00:36:10,300
like T-Mobile where Microsoft is
going to pay people to switch. 

691
00:36:10,300 --> 00:36:13,800
Like I don't think people get 
with these egress costs are, 

692
00:36:13,800 --> 00:36:19,000
there's so massive that like 
nobody's gonna leave AWS to go 

693
00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:21,800
to Google cloud or something, 
right? 

694
00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:24,100
So it's like a land. 
Grab like, you're out there 

695
00:36:24,100 --> 00:36:27,600
every day and Amazon's leaning 
these just massive deals. 

696
00:36:27,600 --> 00:36:30,000
I mean, just look at last year 
having a huge Deals. 

697
00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:33,500
They landed would like the 
NASDAQ like the one with Dish 

698
00:36:33,500 --> 00:36:35,200
Network Dish Network. 
Work said they're going to be 

699
00:36:35,200 --> 00:36:39,300
AWS, has biggest customer in 
like another year. 

700
00:36:39,400 --> 00:36:43,800
These are huge. 
Huge deals and I think people 

701
00:36:43,800 --> 00:36:47,000
overthink things, this isn't a 
commoditize space. 

702
00:36:47,600 --> 00:36:51,100
Come on, Ty space would be 
advertising like Google AdWords,

703
00:36:51,100 --> 00:36:53,000
right? 
Like those are losing 

704
00:36:53,000 --> 00:36:55,700
efficiency. 
And here we are, were running 

705
00:36:55,700 --> 00:36:58,600
into an economic slowdown are 
people going to keep paying for 

706
00:36:58,600 --> 00:36:59,500
them? 
I don't know. 

707
00:36:59,500 --> 00:37:01,500
There's a lot of fears. 
That's what the analysts are 

708
00:37:01,508 --> 00:37:03,100
modeling. 
That Google ads are going to 

709
00:37:03,107 --> 00:37:06,800
have a slow down. 
I don't see that for the cloud 

710
00:37:07,000 --> 00:37:10,300
right now, we're still in the 
first inning, so to speak of 

711
00:37:10,300 --> 00:37:12,300
cloud. 
And the companies that are 

712
00:37:12,300 --> 00:37:14,900
really getting decimated, like 
your Netflix and your Facebook, 

713
00:37:14,900 --> 00:37:18,400
they're kind of in the ninth 
inning of what their companies 

714
00:37:18,500 --> 00:37:21,100
can do, you know, that's why 
Facebook spending so much on 

715
00:37:21,100 --> 00:37:25,600
metaverse. 
And yes, Amazon is not there in 

716
00:37:25,600 --> 00:37:30,100
Cloud, they're not there. 
Yeah, and another thing that I 

717
00:37:30,100 --> 00:37:33,400
think, indicate of of how 
difficult it is to be, there is 

718
00:37:33,400 --> 00:37:37,300
Google, Google is doing 
everything they can to gain 

719
00:37:37,300 --> 00:37:39,000
customers. 
They're not just getting them 

720
00:37:39,000 --> 00:37:42,100
organically like Microsoft. 
And Microsoft gives them because

721
00:37:42,100 --> 00:37:44,000
they already have a connection 
with so many businesses. 

722
00:37:44,400 --> 00:37:48,200
They can incentivize them to 
migrate Amazon just because it's

723
00:37:48,200 --> 00:37:51,400
like the default choice, but I 
feel like Google, they have to 

724
00:37:51,400 --> 00:37:54,900
like go, go an extra level to 
incentivize companies to use 

725
00:37:54,900 --> 00:37:57,400
them and so, their customer 
acquisition cost, I think is 

726
00:37:57,400 --> 00:37:59,800
much higher than It's yeah, 
absolutely. 

727
00:37:59,800 --> 00:38:04,700
I mean, look at the same time 
frame, where Google is today AWS

728
00:38:04,700 --> 00:38:08,800
was wildly profitable, so group 
was a little behind and I think 

729
00:38:08,800 --> 00:38:12,100
that's why they panicked and 
they raise prices and q1 will 

730
00:38:12,100 --> 00:38:15,000
have to see how that works out. 
I don't know, but I know you 

731
00:38:15,000 --> 00:38:19,100
can't raise prices when Amazon 
cut prices, 111 times or 

732
00:38:19,100 --> 00:38:22,700
whatever, since AWS began. 
Yeah, yeah, it's crazy. 

733
00:38:24,000 --> 00:38:29,600
It's okay, so AWS by far I You 
know, I think most people agree 

734
00:38:29,600 --> 00:38:32,700
that's like, the best part of 
the business outside of that. 

735
00:38:32,700 --> 00:38:34,900
What are you most bullish on? 
What are you? 

736
00:38:35,100 --> 00:38:37,000
What's the biggest, what's the 
best part going on? 

737
00:38:37,700 --> 00:38:41,300
Well, you know, obviously 
advertising is is probably even 

738
00:38:41,300 --> 00:38:44,300
more profitable than AWS going 
forward. 

739
00:38:44,700 --> 00:38:50,100
It probably is but for me I 
think it's the just walk out 

740
00:38:50,100 --> 00:38:52,400
technology that they're just 
starting to deploy. 

741
00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:57,000
I for me, that kind of has 
Limitless licensing potential, 

742
00:38:57,300 --> 00:38:59,400
right? 
Because it's Look at retail 

743
00:38:59,400 --> 00:39:04,800
stores all over the place and 
Amazon's got 35 of these 

744
00:39:04,900 --> 00:39:08,900
actually up and running right 
now and I've used it many times.

745
00:39:08,900 --> 00:39:15,000
It's incredible is on a lot of 
people are like, oh, you know, 

746
00:39:15,300 --> 00:39:18,900
there's no cash shares, but but 
I went to Sam's Club and they 

747
00:39:18,908 --> 00:39:21,500
have self-checkout, right? 
So you're talking about, 

748
00:39:21,500 --> 00:39:24,800
Amazon's go check your list 
store, like there's no treasure 

749
00:39:24,800 --> 00:39:26,400
at all. 
What you're talking about was 

750
00:39:26,400 --> 00:39:28,800
Sam's is you gotta scan every 
Item right? 

751
00:39:28,800 --> 00:39:30,800
Okay. 
Yes, you got to do that with 

752
00:39:30,800 --> 00:39:33,000
Amazon. 
They've launched this. 

753
00:39:33,000 --> 00:39:36,200
Just walk out technology and 
they've had it deployed like 45 

754
00:39:36,200 --> 00:39:37,900
years. 
Now for they first started with 

755
00:39:37,900 --> 00:39:40,200
their Amazon go stores, which is
like a little convenience 

756
00:39:40,200 --> 00:39:43,100
stores, right? 
And then now, they're doing it 

757
00:39:43,100 --> 00:39:44,900
in these huge like grocery 
stores. 

758
00:39:44,900 --> 00:39:48,000
They launched a brand called 
Amazon Fresh, which is like a 

759
00:39:48,000 --> 00:39:51,700
lower-end like Kroger level 
grocery store, right? 

760
00:39:51,700 --> 00:39:54,100
Like they have Whole Foods, the 
high-end brand and now they've 

761
00:39:54,100 --> 00:39:57,800
got this like low-end brand. 
And what it's doing is you look 

762
00:39:57,800 --> 00:40:01,900
at Zhan in the u.s.a., got like 
160 million users, right. 

763
00:40:01,900 --> 00:40:06,200
But the lower-income users 
aren't very big on Prime and so 

764
00:40:06,200 --> 00:40:10,100
now they're, they're going at 
those users with these grocery 

765
00:40:10,100 --> 00:40:14,000
stores, and so these grocery 
stores have no cashiers. 

766
00:40:14,000 --> 00:40:16,800
You just you walk in you, put 
your groceries in the cart and 

767
00:40:16,800 --> 00:40:18,900
you leak, right? 
It's like the most fascinating 

768
00:40:18,900 --> 00:40:21,200
things, but you've got to have 
an Amazon account. 

769
00:40:21,600 --> 00:40:24,000
And so they're slowly starting 
to license this stuff out. 

770
00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:26,000
They've got them in a couple 
stadiums, right? 

771
00:40:26,000 --> 00:40:27,800
They don't, they're not even 
branded as Amazon. 

772
00:40:28,100 --> 00:40:31,000
Like they have them at the 
Seattle Arena, where the hockey 

773
00:40:31,000 --> 00:40:33,400
team plays. 
They've got him in Boston where 

774
00:40:33,400 --> 00:40:36,500
the Celtics play last week, in 
Houston, they open two of them 

775
00:40:36,500 --> 00:40:39,900
or the Astros play. 
How do you like what do you do? 

776
00:40:40,100 --> 00:40:42,500
I have never been to one of 
these don't have any around me. 

777
00:40:42,900 --> 00:40:44,600
Does there's a ton of it was on 
YouTube, by the way. 

778
00:40:44,600 --> 00:40:46,400
Okay. 
So I just need to walk. 

779
00:40:47,200 --> 00:40:50,000
I think this will be a 
transition for people to catch 

780
00:40:50,000 --> 00:40:51,900
on to it, right? 
Like kind of a learning curve. 

781
00:40:52,700 --> 00:40:54,200
Actually it's not even learning 
curve. 

782
00:40:54,200 --> 00:40:56,900
You literally you go to an 
Amazon Fresh store. 

783
00:40:57,400 --> 00:40:59,100
They up there. 
Actually opening about one a 

784
00:40:59,100 --> 00:41:02,900
week right now for the last like
month and a half, okay, you just

785
00:41:02,900 --> 00:41:05,400
you get there, they have someone
at the front that explains you 

786
00:41:05,400 --> 00:41:07,000
what you do. 
You just open your Amazon app on

787
00:41:07,000 --> 00:41:08,900
the phone, right? 
Pretty straightforward. 

788
00:41:09,100 --> 00:41:12,300
You scan it on the dash card, 
the dash cards like this, highly

789
00:41:12,300 --> 00:41:15,400
sophisticated grocery cart and 
like, literally, as you're 

790
00:41:15,400 --> 00:41:18,600
picking things up in the store 
and putting them in your basket,

791
00:41:18,700 --> 00:41:21,900
it's like automatically building
this virtual cart. 

792
00:41:22,300 --> 00:41:24,200
And then at the end you just 
walk out and it builds you for 

793
00:41:24,200 --> 00:41:27,200
what you took. 
No, that seems pretty 

794
00:41:27,200 --> 00:41:28,800
straightforward. 
And Amazon. 

795
00:41:28,800 --> 00:41:30,800
No, Amazon has said they've 
lowered. 

796
00:41:30,800 --> 00:41:35,900
The cost of running a grocery 
store from 4 million to 159,000 

797
00:41:36,300 --> 00:41:38,200
how massive of a savings is 
that. 

798
00:41:38,200 --> 00:41:41,200
Yeah, you're so that's talking 
about not having as many 

799
00:41:41,500 --> 00:41:43,500
employees around. 
Did you check her out stuff? 

800
00:41:43,800 --> 00:41:45,000
Correct. 
It's reading it. 

801
00:41:45,300 --> 00:41:48,300
So they're trying to turn 
traditionally, a low margin 

802
00:41:48,300 --> 00:41:50,500
business into a slightly like a 
higher margin business. 

803
00:41:50,500 --> 00:41:54,100
Then it's not just groceries. 
Don't like this stuff, has 

804
00:41:54,100 --> 00:41:56,300
applications every right. 
Like I was saying like, the 

805
00:41:56,300 --> 00:41:59,400
Hudson non-stop stores in are 
It's a bunch of them are 

806
00:41:59,408 --> 00:42:02,800
starting to use it and so that's
like magazines and drinks at 

807
00:42:02,800 --> 00:42:05,200
airports, whatever. 
Like I said at the sports 

808
00:42:05,200 --> 00:42:08,100
Arenas, they're doing it to and,
you know, you can go buy 

809
00:42:08,100 --> 00:42:12,100
merchandise, you do everything 
anything retail related, right. 

810
00:42:12,100 --> 00:42:14,800
If you want to minimize 
slippage, you want to minimize 

811
00:42:14,800 --> 00:42:18,700
theft, you want to reduce, 
payroll costs, whatever. 

812
00:42:18,900 --> 00:42:23,800
This type of tech is like it's 
incredible and you have to have 

813
00:42:23,800 --> 00:42:27,400
an Amazon Prime membership, even
if, you know, this Tech at a non

814
00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:30,500
or the grocery Three stores not 
for the non Amazon business. 

815
00:42:30,500 --> 00:42:32,900
Okay. 
Okay, like in Vegas in Vegas. 

816
00:42:32,900 --> 00:42:35,100
They have at the new Resorts 
World. 

817
00:42:35,300 --> 00:42:38,500
They have a gift shop there and 
you just put your credit card in

818
00:42:38,500 --> 00:42:42,500
the door and you just walk in. 
Okay, make sense. 

819
00:42:43,400 --> 00:42:46,700
Yeah, I get that's not covered 
much like I don't see analysts 

820
00:42:46,700 --> 00:42:48,600
looking at that or anybody 
looking at that Tech at all. 

821
00:42:48,600 --> 00:42:52,300
It's just kind of like people. 
This is you as a silly side 

822
00:42:52,300 --> 00:42:54,800
project for Amazon. 
Amazon can't discuss it, right? 

823
00:42:54,800 --> 00:42:57,200
Like Amazon's like the most 
hated company on earth, right by

824
00:42:57,200 --> 00:42:59,600
politicians. 
It was on comes out and says, 

825
00:42:59,600 --> 00:43:02,800
hey, we have this incredible 
Tech and we're going to wipe out

826
00:43:02,800 --> 00:43:06,100
cashier jobs over the next 10 
years right now, you would have 

827
00:43:07,200 --> 00:43:11,100
you would have Bernie Sanders, 
like, screaming from the roof 

828
00:43:11,800 --> 00:43:15,200
about what, you know, we got 2nd
Amazon like today, so, like 

829
00:43:15,200 --> 00:43:17,800
everything else image on it. 
Just stays quiet, right? 

830
00:43:17,800 --> 00:43:21,000
But these Amazon, Fresh stores 
are popping up all over the 

831
00:43:21,000 --> 00:43:22,900
place. 
And there's a ton of videos on 

832
00:43:22,900 --> 00:43:25,300
YouTube. 
I mean, you can check them out 

833
00:43:25,300 --> 00:43:29,200
but it's tremendous what they're
doing and When it extrapolates 

834
00:43:29,200 --> 00:43:32,600
into other segments of the 
retail industry. 

835
00:43:32,700 --> 00:43:36,600
I mean, the potential is just 
massive for licensing. 

836
00:43:37,400 --> 00:43:40,800
Yeah. 
No I think I mean if that's the 

837
00:43:40,808 --> 00:43:44,200
way it's going to be like, if 
you look out ten years, we're 

838
00:43:44,200 --> 00:43:46,500
not going to have a ton of 
people, it's already 

839
00:43:46,500 --> 00:43:48,200
progressing. 
That way, step by step, it makes

840
00:43:48,200 --> 00:43:49,600
sense. 
We went from having cashiers. 

841
00:43:49,600 --> 00:43:53,400
Do everything can having said 
self checkout, the next step is 

842
00:43:53,400 --> 00:43:57,800
to have no check out and to have
ai and and cameras and stuff do 

843
00:43:57,800 --> 00:44:00,100
that. 
So to me, it's going to happen. 

844
00:44:00,100 --> 00:44:02,100
I think Amazon sees that and 
they're just going to say, well,

845
00:44:02,100 --> 00:44:03,300
we're going to be the ones to do
it. 

846
00:44:04,200 --> 00:44:05,500
Yeah. 
And I mean, look, they don't 

847
00:44:05,500 --> 00:44:10,200
disclose what they charge these 
other venues for using it, but 

848
00:44:10,200 --> 00:44:13,000
if Amazon is telling you, 
they're themselves are saving 

849
00:44:13,000 --> 00:44:16,900
like 3.8 million dollars, 
running a grocery store. 

850
00:44:16,900 --> 00:44:19,000
I mean, what's it worth to a 
business? 

851
00:44:19,100 --> 00:44:24,100
I mean, would Kroger pay 20,000 
a month for it per location. 

852
00:44:24,300 --> 00:44:26,600
I mean, I would, if I ran that 
kind of business. 

853
00:44:26,800 --> 00:44:28,800
Yeah, if it's that much. 
Absolutely. 

854
00:44:30,200 --> 00:44:34,400
All right, well, what other 
before I move on to two risks, 

855
00:44:34,400 --> 00:44:37,000
what are there? 
Like, you know, they have so 

856
00:44:37,000 --> 00:44:39,300
many long shot bets. 
Like what are your thoughts on 

857
00:44:39,500 --> 00:44:43,400
Zoosk? 
For instance, I think Zoosk has,

858
00:44:43,900 --> 00:44:47,000
you know, it's funny a week ago.
Tesla had its earnings and Elon 

859
00:44:47,000 --> 00:44:49,800
Musk announced. 
Hey, we're going to have a car 

860
00:44:49,800 --> 00:44:53,100
with no pedals and it can go in 
both directions and everyone was

861
00:44:53,100 --> 00:44:55,400
like, oh my God! 
Elon Musk is the smartest guy in

862
00:44:55,400 --> 00:44:59,900
history and I pointed out. 
Out that like, you know, zooks 

863
00:44:59,900 --> 00:45:02,900
has been doing this for like 
years and even like Zoosk like 

864
00:45:02,900 --> 00:45:06,800
like my comment on Twitter, they
came and they liked it and they 

865
00:45:06,808 --> 00:45:08,600
were laughing. 
And it's the truth. 

866
00:45:08,600 --> 00:45:11,600
I mean, Amazon's further ahead 
there than Tesla, right? 

867
00:45:11,600 --> 00:45:16,800
Well, do this is like testing in
Vegas, it's live and die so I 

868
00:45:16,800 --> 00:45:19,400
don't hold Tesla right now 
individually. 

869
00:45:19,400 --> 00:45:22,700
But, but let me argue for that 
on Tesla, shareholder behalf 

870
00:45:22,700 --> 00:45:25,300
because I know exactly what they
say, they say it's easy to come 

871
00:45:25,300 --> 00:45:27,800
up, you know, just like V's 
many, many companies. 

872
00:45:27,800 --> 00:45:30,700
Come With Concepts and ideas and
they might even come up with a 

873
00:45:30,700 --> 00:45:33,500
good like beta, but it's all 
about the scale, the 

874
00:45:33,500 --> 00:45:36,500
manufacturing power. 
And so that's where that's where

875
00:45:36,500 --> 00:45:40,900
Tesla's in the lead is if they 
actually create one like a Zoosk

876
00:45:41,100 --> 00:45:44,100
style car, they can manufacture 
it. 

877
00:45:44,900 --> 00:45:46,800
When Angela. 
Look, here's my thing. 

878
00:45:47,100 --> 00:45:49,600
Elon Musk is brilliant, right 
Tesla's? 

879
00:45:49,600 --> 00:45:52,200
They're neat cars, whatever but 
go back. 

880
00:45:52,300 --> 00:45:54,600
All right. 
We had the Tesla semi announced 

881
00:45:54,600 --> 00:45:57,900
I think in, like 2017 still 
doesn't exist, right? 

882
00:45:58,000 --> 00:46:00,900
He you have the Tesla Roadster. 
People paid a quarter million 

883
00:46:00,900 --> 00:46:03,800
dollars paid in full. 
I want to say in 2018 still 

884
00:46:03,800 --> 00:46:07,500
doesn't exist. 
The Cyber truck announced in 

885
00:46:07,508 --> 00:46:13,000
2019 still doesn't exist and so 
Tesla can do all these things. 

886
00:46:13,000 --> 00:46:15,200
Sure. 
But it's going to have to go 

887
00:46:15,200 --> 00:46:17,900
through a massive capex cycle 
like Amazon did because they 

888
00:46:17,900 --> 00:46:20,600
just don't have the 
manufacturing capability today 

889
00:46:20,900 --> 00:46:23,600
to build all these things like 
they have all these great ideas 

890
00:46:24,000 --> 00:46:27,300
if they're so far away from 
actually like executing on them.

891
00:46:27,300 --> 00:46:29,300
He know if Look at Tesla right 
now. 

892
00:46:29,600 --> 00:46:32,000
AWS does more revenue and profit
than Tesla. 

893
00:46:32,400 --> 00:46:37,900
Yeah right. 
Thanks to Amazon is mostly 

894
00:46:37,900 --> 00:46:41,000
because I just the numbers I 
feel like they have like I get 

895
00:46:41,000 --> 00:46:43,100
all these guys on my Twitter 
like oh, you know you're a test 

896
00:46:43,100 --> 00:46:44,600
later. 
I'm like I'm not a test later 

897
00:46:44,600 --> 00:46:46,500
guys, I'm just a rational 
person. 

898
00:46:46,500 --> 00:46:49,600
Like, yes, Tesla can do all 
these amazing things over the 

899
00:46:49,600 --> 00:46:53,100
next decade. 
But for right now, for right 

900
00:46:53,100 --> 00:46:57,500
now, it's really just not that 
big of a company for the 

901
00:46:57,500 --> 00:46:59,700
valuation. 
In you're paying and so like, 

902
00:46:59,700 --> 00:47:03,200
you know, Amazon was once way 
ahead of its stock price, right?

903
00:47:03,300 --> 00:47:06,100
Go to covid 2020. 
We got to 3500. 

904
00:47:06,100 --> 00:47:08,000
We've done nothing for two 
years. 

905
00:47:08,100 --> 00:47:10,200
Yeah. 
So so this have yourself. 

906
00:47:10,400 --> 00:47:12,500
Exactly. 
So that kind of stuff happens. 

907
00:47:12,500 --> 00:47:15,200
It's not a big deal. 
I'm not saying Tesla's going to 

908
00:47:15,200 --> 00:47:19,000
be bankrupt or anything. 
Just the stock is way ahead of 

909
00:47:19,000 --> 00:47:22,200
where it should be, and it's 
pricing in a lot of future. 

910
00:47:22,400 --> 00:47:26,900
Yeah, no, I I agree. 
I my big thing there. 

911
00:47:26,900 --> 00:47:29,500
It's just I agree. 
That's a great company. 

912
00:47:29,600 --> 00:47:32,300
Good future about the valuation 
is as tough for me to wrap my 

913
00:47:32,300 --> 00:47:36,300
head around now. 
Okay so let's move on to we got 

914
00:47:36,300 --> 00:47:39,700
earnings coming up. 
Do you consider this like a 

915
00:47:39,700 --> 00:47:41,500
vital earnings? 
Like is this going to change 

916
00:47:41,500 --> 00:47:45,800
your your thesis on on Amazon? 
It's not going to change my 

917
00:47:45,800 --> 00:47:48,800
thesis but it is a vital 
earnings because look we're this

918
00:47:48,800 --> 00:47:52,400
is going to be any jassi's, 
fourth earnings call, right as 

919
00:47:52,400 --> 00:47:55,500
CEO. 
And he's never even been on one 

920
00:47:55,500 --> 00:47:57,900
of these calls which is like, 
it's one thing to just 

921
00:47:58,000 --> 00:48:00,300
Frustrates me with them. 
And one of the reasons I got on 

922
00:48:00,300 --> 00:48:05,000
Twitter it's like you can keep 
you know, spending more and more

923
00:48:05,000 --> 00:48:07,500
capex and then we guide down 
every quarter. 

924
00:48:07,500 --> 00:48:10,800
It's like what are we spending 
all this tap x 4 like, can can 

925
00:48:10,800 --> 00:48:12,900
someone give us an answer? 
Like you just tell us. 

926
00:48:12,900 --> 00:48:14,900
You keep waiting and it's going 
to pay off. 

927
00:48:15,200 --> 00:48:19,400
But here we are two years. 
No movement revenues keep going 

928
00:48:19,400 --> 00:48:23,200
higher ebitda keeps going on. 
Every metric is getting better, 

929
00:48:23,400 --> 00:48:26,900
but the stock does nothing in 
the markets losing confidence 

930
00:48:27,100 --> 00:48:30,700
and all your It's so I'd like to
hear from Andy, like, I'd like 

931
00:48:30,700 --> 00:48:33,700
him to sit there and take you no
questions from analysts, because

932
00:48:34,000 --> 00:48:36,800
you look at Facebook, you look 
at Google Microsoft, the CEOs 

933
00:48:36,800 --> 00:48:39,900
are all there on calls. 
And so, I think it's a weird 

934
00:48:39,900 --> 00:48:44,700
thing that Andy doesn't do that,
but I will say, especially, when

935
00:48:44,700 --> 00:48:47,000
the stocks flat, I could see if 
the stock was up 100%. 

936
00:48:47,000 --> 00:48:48,500
He's like, I don't know. 
You know, who carries? 

937
00:48:48,500 --> 00:48:50,600
I don't need to be there. 
Everybody else to shareholders 

938
00:48:50,600 --> 00:48:52,800
are happy when it's flat. 
It's like you gotta come and 

939
00:48:52,800 --> 00:48:55,400
explain yourself, you know? 
Exactly. 

940
00:48:55,500 --> 00:48:58,500
Exactly. 
I just I think for me, The 

941
00:48:58,500 --> 00:49:00,200
things I'll be looking for this 
quarter. 

942
00:49:00,200 --> 00:49:03,400
Our did AWS accelerate. 
I think it did. 

943
00:49:04,900 --> 00:49:07,200
I'd like to see past the 40 
percent? 

944
00:49:07,400 --> 00:49:12,400
No, no, but accelerated from q1,
2020, II, mean from q1 2021. 

945
00:49:12,500 --> 00:49:15,700
I would say it's going to be in 
that 38 to 40 percent range, 

946
00:49:15,900 --> 00:49:18,700
okay? 
Over 40% I would be like stunned

947
00:49:18,700 --> 00:49:21,200
if it went it was like 42% or 
something. 

948
00:49:21,200 --> 00:49:24,600
I would be blown away. 
But no, I think it's going to be

949
00:49:24,600 --> 00:49:27,200
like the 38 to 40 percent range.
Okay. 

950
00:49:28,000 --> 00:49:31,600
Like to hear that were slowing 
down the retail capex, you know,

951
00:49:31,600 --> 00:49:35,900
the last call they said like two
analysts, press them, one 

952
00:49:35,900 --> 00:49:38,400
analyst press them, and they 
completely ignored him and then 

953
00:49:38,400 --> 00:49:40,900
like the next animals followed 
up with the same question. 

954
00:49:41,000 --> 00:49:43,200
So you could tell like the 
investor relations guy got kind 

955
00:49:43,200 --> 00:49:45,800
of pissed off and so he answered
them. 

956
00:49:46,000 --> 00:49:49,400
And he said basically when you 
break down the capex, 40% is for

957
00:49:49,400 --> 00:49:52,800
AWS. 
And then he said a big chunk is 

958
00:49:52,800 --> 00:49:55,300
for a mzl which is their 
transport Network. 

959
00:49:55,800 --> 00:49:59,300
And then he said the retail 
capex, It would fall in line 

960
00:49:59,300 --> 00:50:02,500
with retail growth. 
So if retail is going to slow, 

961
00:50:02,500 --> 00:50:05,500
does that mean retail capex is 
going to completely slow to. 

962
00:50:06,000 --> 00:50:08,000
And if so, I mean, that's what 
I'm looking for. 

963
00:50:08,900 --> 00:50:11,500
I'm Looking For Less spending on
the retail business. 

964
00:50:11,500 --> 00:50:14,600
That that business is like an 
albatross, right? 

965
00:50:14,600 --> 00:50:16,600
It's like, I know there's a 
million things and we're 

966
00:50:16,600 --> 00:50:19,200
expanding by with Prime and all 
these things, but like, I just 

967
00:50:19,200 --> 00:50:21,900
don't care. 
He like I just like, focus on 

968
00:50:21,900 --> 00:50:24,500
AWS. 
Let's let you know what's up to 

969
00:50:24,500 --> 00:50:27,800
buy backs and look let's just do
with what stocks. 

970
00:50:28,000 --> 00:50:32,400
Close to do, you know, like, you
know, more this like give return

971
00:50:32,400 --> 00:50:34,100
money to shareholders at some 
point. 

972
00:50:34,400 --> 00:50:37,600
Exactly, you know, and look, 
none of the big shareholders are

973
00:50:37,600 --> 00:50:39,800
there for this retail business. 
That's what makes this so 

974
00:50:39,800 --> 00:50:42,400
painful. 
It's like you're watching all 

975
00:50:42,400 --> 00:50:45,300
this capex. 
Go to this retail business even 

976
00:50:45,300 --> 00:50:48,300
AWS Engineers right there 
working on like the world's 

977
00:50:48,300 --> 00:50:51,100
greatest project right now and 
they're stuck with their 

978
00:50:51,100 --> 00:50:54,500
compensation tied to this crappy
retail business. 

979
00:50:54,700 --> 00:50:57,800
Yeah yeah. 
Well if you even broke down the 

980
00:50:57,900 --> 00:51:02,400
The like Amazon AWS would be 
looked at so differently because

981
00:51:02,400 --> 00:51:05,600
if you look at the growth of 
Amazon overall the slow huge 

982
00:51:05,600 --> 00:51:09,000
massive Revenue growth from 
retail show that the whole 

983
00:51:09,000 --> 00:51:11,400
company's not really growing at 
a quick Pace. 

984
00:51:11,700 --> 00:51:13,600
We look at AWS in its growing 
40%. 

985
00:51:13,600 --> 00:51:15,500
It's growing double the speed of
Microsoft. 

986
00:51:17,300 --> 00:51:20,500
So if you broke the company's 
apart they would have completely

987
00:51:20,500 --> 00:51:24,100
different valuations on them. 
Like well what do you think that

988
00:51:24,100 --> 00:51:27,000
what do you think that market 
caps would be if you broke AWS 

989
00:51:27,000 --> 00:51:27,900
off from the rest of the 
business? 

990
00:51:28,000 --> 00:51:30,300
This like, out of the, what do 
you think? 

991
00:51:30,300 --> 00:51:33,800
They divide would be if he WS 
was a separate business, it 

992
00:51:33,800 --> 00:51:36,900
would be worth more than Tesla, 
just because it does more 

993
00:51:36,900 --> 00:51:39,400
Revenue. 
It does more profit, and I know 

994
00:51:39,400 --> 00:51:42,900
Tesla blows won't agree, but I 
think AWS has a bigger and 

995
00:51:42,900 --> 00:51:45,300
brighter future than Tesla. 
You know, Tess is going to face 

996
00:51:45,300 --> 00:51:50,400
competition from a million car 
makers and Amazon's just not 

997
00:51:50,400 --> 00:51:53,500
they have to deal with Microsoft
and Google and that's about it. 

998
00:51:53,700 --> 00:51:57,500
So you know going forward I 
could see ten years from now 

999
00:51:57,500 --> 00:52:01,400
where a WS is doing half a 
trillion in Revenue by itself 

1000
00:52:01,800 --> 00:52:05,600
and so if Tesla's one point, one
trillion, I think AWS would be 

1001
00:52:05,600 --> 00:52:10,900
higher, but I think analysts, 
look at Amazon the wrong way. 

1002
00:52:10,900 --> 00:52:14,000
Like you'll hear on Tuesday. 
Oh, Amazon's revenue was down. 

1003
00:52:14,000 --> 00:52:18,000
That's because of the 1p retail 
being like half, right? 

1004
00:52:18,000 --> 00:52:21,500
If you look for me, the most 
important number is Services. 

1005
00:52:21,600 --> 00:52:25,600
Okay, Services means your 3p 
business, plus your 

1006
00:52:25,600 --> 00:52:32,000
subscriptions, Plus Aw, S Plus 
advertising, okay, and last 

1007
00:52:32,000 --> 00:52:35,900
year, last year Services were 
two hundred thirty 1 billion by 

1008
00:52:35,900 --> 00:52:37,600
themself, that's bigger than 
Microsoft. 

1009
00:52:37,700 --> 00:52:40,800
Okay? 
And that grew That Grew 

1010
00:52:42,000 --> 00:52:44,400
something like thirty three 
percent year-over-year. 

1011
00:52:44,400 --> 00:52:48,000
That's huge growth in the 
segments that matter, right? 

1012
00:52:48,300 --> 00:52:52,000
So I don't look at the overall 
retail number because half of it

1013
00:52:52,000 --> 00:52:54,500
is just this low-margin retail 
stuff. 

1014
00:52:54,500 --> 00:52:57,700
So I'm not concerned with that. 
The service is number is the one

1015
00:52:57,700 --> 00:53:00,000
that it matters to me. 
Okay. 

1016
00:53:00,400 --> 00:53:03,900
And what do you think is the 
biggest risk coming into this 

1017
00:53:03,900 --> 00:53:05,800
quarter and going forward with 
Amazon? 

1018
00:53:06,100 --> 00:53:09,900
What are the things like? 
You know, what Karambit effects 

1019
00:53:10,100 --> 00:53:12,800
on a ramp capex again because 
what do you think helped flicked

1020
00:53:12,800 --> 00:53:14,400
it. 
It's not something bad another. 

1021
00:53:14,600 --> 00:53:16,800
You're either, you know, usually
when people look at stocks, I 

1022
00:53:16,808 --> 00:53:19,300
think the biggest risk is 
something another company can do

1023
00:53:19,300 --> 00:53:22,300
to it now. 
With Amazon, you're saying it 

1024
00:53:22,300 --> 00:53:24,800
says self-inflicted wound. 
Yeah, I mean what happens if 

1025
00:53:24,800 --> 00:53:27,500
they say okay well you know, 
Amazon Fresh is working now we 

1026
00:53:27,500 --> 00:53:29,300
want to be Thousand grocery 
stores. 

1027
00:53:30,000 --> 00:53:32,100
Like, like what happens? 
If they say, okay, we want to go

1028
00:53:32,100 --> 00:53:35,000
after Kroger, you know, we, I'm 
like that's what would kill me 

1029
00:53:35,000 --> 00:53:36,700
because it's like, yes, walk 
out. 

1030
00:53:36,700 --> 00:53:39,800
Tech is a huge deal, but at the 
same time, I don't want to get 

1031
00:53:39,800 --> 00:53:42,500
in the grocery business, you 
know, like I just, I want you to

1032
00:53:42,500 --> 00:53:45,200
license this stuff out, right. 
But I don't want you to 

1033
00:53:45,200 --> 00:53:48,000
physically go build all these 
grocery stores. 

1034
00:53:48,600 --> 00:53:51,100
Yeah, well, Microsoft is good at
that, they kind of stay away 

1035
00:53:51,100 --> 00:53:53,200
from the low-margin stuff. 
They're like exactly. 

1036
00:53:53,200 --> 00:53:56,700
They keep very, you know, they 
have some connection to it but 

1037
00:53:57,100 --> 00:54:00,800
right, not a lot. 
Lat, I think Amazon, like I said

1038
00:54:00,800 --> 00:54:04,900
earlier, my biggest risk to them
is they get into too many 

1039
00:54:04,900 --> 00:54:09,300
things, they are just doing too 
many things and they all sound 

1040
00:54:09,300 --> 00:54:12,900
great and I'm sure many of them 
will work out but they just need

1041
00:54:12,900 --> 00:54:15,100
to focus. 
They just need to focus it like 

1042
00:54:15,400 --> 00:54:17,200
I don't know if you remember GE 
right there. 

1043
00:54:17,200 --> 00:54:20,900
Was there was like a joke back 
in the day that like, you can't 

1044
00:54:21,000 --> 00:54:23,500
describe what GE does in one 
sentence. 

1045
00:54:23,700 --> 00:54:26,000
And that's kind of where 
Amazon's, you know, you're 

1046
00:54:26,000 --> 00:54:28,800
getting that point with Amazon 
where You just can't describe 

1047
00:54:28,800 --> 00:54:31,100
what they do because they do eat
million things. 

1048
00:54:31,100 --> 00:54:34,700
You want? 
Analyst joke that Amazon's Tam 

1049
00:54:35,100 --> 00:54:37,700
is global GDP. 
I mean that's like literally 

1050
00:54:37,800 --> 00:54:39,500
because like they just do 
everything. 

1051
00:54:40,300 --> 00:54:41,700
Yeah. 
They really do know. 

1052
00:54:41,900 --> 00:54:43,800
It's yeah it's a double-edged 
sword. 

1053
00:54:43,800 --> 00:54:45,600
Like it's good that they have 
lots of verticals that they can 

1054
00:54:45,600 --> 00:54:49,900
grow into but at a certain point
they gotta prove to shareholders

1055
00:54:49,900 --> 00:54:54,100
that it's worth it, you know? 
So that's kind of the same way 

1056
00:54:54,100 --> 00:54:58,000
that I view it. 
I think the Amazons I feel Like 

1057
00:54:58,000 --> 00:55:00,600
the earnings should be 
reflective of what AWS is doing 

1058
00:55:00,700 --> 00:55:04,100
the ads Biz business, and 
probably some macro stuff going 

1059
00:55:04,100 --> 00:55:10,900
on right now in terms of 
valuation, I have Amazon right 

1060
00:55:10,900 --> 00:55:15,200
now, when I do like a sum of the
parts valuation, I think I sent 

1061
00:55:15,200 --> 00:55:18,400
it over to you, I have it 
somewhere around like, like 4800

1062
00:55:18,400 --> 00:55:22,200
is what, what I think it's worth
like on a pretty and that's not 

1063
00:55:22,200 --> 00:55:24,800
like pie in the sky. 
Like I'm giving everything super

1064
00:55:24,800 --> 00:55:27,600
high multiples and expecting 
everything to be above. 

1065
00:55:27,900 --> 00:55:29,600
Tations. 
That's just what I do. 

1066
00:55:29,600 --> 00:55:31,900
Like a conservative valuation 
compared to everything else in 

1067
00:55:31,908 --> 00:55:34,900
the market. 
So what are your thoughts on 

1068
00:55:34,900 --> 00:55:38,300
like, just like a real valuation
in terms of some of the parts or

1069
00:55:38,300 --> 00:55:40,200
breaking down the different 
parts of Amazon? 

1070
00:55:40,200 --> 00:55:42,500
Have you looked at that? 
I absolutely have. 

1071
00:55:42,500 --> 00:55:46,400
Absolutely, and I said on 
Twitter, I I put my valuation at

1072
00:55:46,400 --> 00:55:49,200
5500. 
I think somewhere between two 

1073
00:55:49,200 --> 00:55:53,800
and a half inch three trillion. 
I think Amazon should be worth 

1074
00:55:53,900 --> 00:55:57,300
more than Apple right. 
Apple right now, is 1.2 trillion

1075
00:55:57,300 --> 00:55:59,600
more which Is like, I mean, 
that's insane to me. 

1076
00:55:59,600 --> 00:56:02,000
I mean, that's just insane. 
I mean apples, a tremendous 

1077
00:56:02,200 --> 00:56:06,600
company, but in terms of growth,
I mean, they're nowhere near 

1078
00:56:06,600 --> 00:56:09,900
what Amazon is and what it can 
be right, you think Amazon 

1079
00:56:09,900 --> 00:56:12,500
should be the biggest company in
market cap in the world right 

1080
00:56:12,500 --> 00:56:14,200
now. 
It should be it absolutely. 

1081
00:56:14,400 --> 00:56:18,900
Look me in this stuff like 
Logistics and in AWS. 

1082
00:56:18,900 --> 00:56:23,000
What I mean they have built out 
so much it's like at this 

1083
00:56:23,000 --> 00:56:26,300
valuation 1.4 trillion. 
You're just really like valuing 

1084
00:56:26,300 --> 00:56:29,300
Amazon that like nothing right 
now. 80 billion over the last 

1085
00:56:29,300 --> 00:56:32,700
two years on capex. 
I mean, they're building so much

1086
00:56:32,700 --> 00:56:35,300
stuff. 
They have so much stuff in the 

1087
00:56:35,300 --> 00:56:37,900
pipeline. 
The market is just putting them 

1088
00:56:37,900 --> 00:56:40,800
on ignore until they show us 
some free cash flow. 

1089
00:56:41,200 --> 00:56:45,000
But if I was to say, you know, I
saw your numbers. 

1090
00:56:46,100 --> 00:56:50,500
I think 550 500 is probably 
around the number. 

1091
00:56:50,500 --> 00:56:56,600
I would say just because it's 
hard to look at Amazon and look 

1092
00:56:56,600 --> 00:56:58,800
at today's share count and think
it's going to be in the same 

1093
00:56:58,800 --> 00:57:00,800
place like two years from now, 
right? 

1094
00:57:00,800 --> 00:57:04,200
When you get to this size, you 
have to start buying back stock.

1095
00:57:04,200 --> 00:57:06,700
There's nothing left, right? 
Biggest thing that I think is 

1096
00:57:06,700 --> 00:57:08,500
helping apple right now is 
right. 

1097
00:57:08,500 --> 00:57:10,500
Can cook just sits there and 
hits the by back button. 

1098
00:57:10,500 --> 00:57:13,800
Every every second of every day,
anytime Shirin sells the stock, 

1099
00:57:14,000 --> 00:57:17,300
Apple has the cash flow to just 
buy it back and then million of 

1100
00:57:17,300 --> 00:57:20,100
quarters, you know, so they're 
in all the dividend funds as 

1101
00:57:20,100 --> 00:57:21,900
well as a growing dividend 
company. 

1102
00:57:22,100 --> 00:57:24,600
Like they just have good will 
with everyone right now like 

1103
00:57:24,600 --> 00:57:27,200
they're just created Goodwill 
with every class of investor. 

1104
00:57:27,900 --> 00:57:30,400
Look, I think Amazon did that 
split. 

1105
00:57:30,400 --> 00:57:33,800
They did that 12:40 split 
specifically because they want 

1106
00:57:33,800 --> 00:57:36,600
to Dow Jones. 
Invite same with Google, right, 

1107
00:57:36,600 --> 00:57:39,000
the Dow Jones. 
People don't know this, it's 

1108
00:57:39,000 --> 00:57:41,800
price waited, okay. 
And what that means is you look 

1109
00:57:41,800 --> 00:57:44,600
at the Dow Jones, like 
UnitedHealth is like the biggest

1110
00:57:44,600 --> 00:57:46,400
component because of its price, 
right? 

1111
00:57:46,400 --> 00:57:48,500
Its way up, five, six hundred 
bucks, whatever it is. 

1112
00:57:48,500 --> 00:57:50,900
I don't even, I honestly don't 
even follow the Dow Jones at 

1113
00:57:50,900 --> 00:57:55,000
all. 
And so, Amazon and Google 

1114
00:57:55,000 --> 00:57:57,500
couldn't get in the Dow Jones at
3,000 to share. 

1115
00:57:57,500 --> 00:58:00,800
Because, you know, they would 
have to be like twenty percent 

1116
00:58:00,800 --> 00:58:02,500
at the Dow Jones and they don't 
want that. 

1117
00:58:02,500 --> 00:58:07,400
So I think they both split to 
that like 150 range actually 

1118
00:58:07,400 --> 00:58:11,000
lower now because they want the 
Dow Jones to invite them. 

1119
00:58:11,100 --> 00:58:13,600
And I really do think later this
year, they're going to get that 

1120
00:58:13,600 --> 00:58:16,800
Dow Jones invite. 
And I think it's going to give 

1121
00:58:16,800 --> 00:58:19,900
you like a different class of 
shareholder, right? 

1122
00:58:19,900 --> 00:58:22,600
Like right now, right now, 
Amazon's in all the growth 

1123
00:58:22,600 --> 00:58:26,500
funds, okay? 
It's in there with your Netflix,

1124
00:58:26,500 --> 00:58:28,400
your Shopify, whatever. 
And so, when those names get 

1125
00:58:28,400 --> 00:58:31,700
killed and those funds start 
seeing redemptions, they got to 

1126
00:58:31,700 --> 00:58:34,400
sell their Amazon as well. 
You know, they have to start 

1127
00:58:34,400 --> 00:58:38,100
trimming and trimming and so 
we're a growth stock where we're

1128
00:58:38,100 --> 00:58:41,400
tied with those and I think 
Amazon Google realize that like 

1129
00:58:41,400 --> 00:58:46,500
Microsoft and Apple have more 
stability paying a dividend 

1130
00:58:46,500 --> 00:58:48,500
being in the Dow Jones. 
It's different class of 

1131
00:58:48,500 --> 00:58:51,000
shareholder and I think they 
both want that. 

1132
00:58:52,100 --> 00:58:55,800
Well yeah. 
Yeah, no, I agree 100%. 

1133
00:58:56,600 --> 00:58:58,500
Well hopefully, you know, we'll 
see. 

1134
00:58:58,900 --> 00:59:02,700
Maybe we'll have you on again 
and see how things turn out this

1135
00:59:02,700 --> 00:59:06,300
this week. 
I hope it goes. 

1136
00:59:06,300 --> 00:59:08,500
Well, man. 
I mean, I really cannot imagine.

1137
00:59:08,500 --> 00:59:10,600
I mean from a valuation 
standpoint. 

1138
00:59:10,600 --> 00:59:14,400
We really cannot go much lower. 
I mean, at one point four 

1139
00:59:14,400 --> 00:59:17,700
trillion today that's a 
laughable valuation for what 

1140
00:59:17,700 --> 00:59:20,400
Amazon is. 
Yeah, you just need, you just 

1141
00:59:20,400 --> 00:59:23,600
need a call where they quit 
telling us to keep. 

1142
00:59:24,000 --> 00:59:25,900
The two quarters down the road 
right now. 

1143
00:59:25,900 --> 00:59:29,500
Like we're in a market now where
people are concerned, what's 

1144
00:59:29,500 --> 00:59:30,700
going to happen? 
Six months from now. 

1145
00:59:30,707 --> 00:59:33,000
Nobody cares about that. 
That's why every girl's name is 

1146
00:59:33,000 --> 00:59:34,400
killed. 
They want to see what you're 

1147
00:59:34,400 --> 00:59:38,400
doing right now. 
So I'd like to see Amazon tell 

1148
00:59:38,400 --> 00:59:41,500
us the capex is slowing. 
Maybe maybe they get two free, 

1149
00:59:41,500 --> 00:59:44,200
cash flow a quarter sooner. 
You know, most people think it's

1150
00:59:44,207 --> 00:59:47,600
going to be Q3 but maybe they 
can get it to Q2. 

1151
00:59:47,600 --> 00:59:50,100
I don't know. 
But this is a huge call for them

1152
00:59:50,100 --> 00:59:52,700
and I would be incredibly 
disappointed if it went the 

1153
00:59:52,700 --> 00:59:53,800
wrong way. 
Yeah. 

1154
00:59:53,900 --> 00:59:55,300
Yeah. 
No me too as well. 

1155
00:59:56,000 --> 00:59:59,200
Well, hey, I have a lot of it, 
you know, I put a lot in Amazon,

1156
00:59:59,200 --> 01:00:01,600
so I'm going to hopefully, over 
the next three years will make 

1157
01:00:01,600 --> 01:00:04,100
some money on it. 
So, hopefully, hopefully, at 

1158
01:00:04,100 --> 01:00:05,800
some point, it will break out of
this. 

1159
01:00:07,200 --> 01:00:10,900
Well, hey, I should wrap it up 
there, but I appreciate you 

1160
01:00:10,900 --> 01:00:12,100
coming on and sharing your 
thoughts. 

1161
01:00:12,600 --> 01:00:14,100
Cool. 
No thanks for having me. 

1162
01:00:14,200 --> 01:00:16,800
Would you take time talk to you 
next time? 

1163
01:00:17,300 --> 01:00:17,800
All right, man.