Welcome back, everyone. Thanks for joining today on the
Joseph Carlson Show. Donald Trump once again wins the
presidency, and we're going to talk about it.
Now that we know who the winner is, we can actually look at the
policies that might determine some impact on the stock market
over the upcoming four years. Each of these candidates had
some similarities, but they also have some striking differences.
The market is already celebrating a Donald Trump win
and I think overall celebrating having the elections, having
this ordeal finally behind us and looking forward now, the Dow
Jones is up 3.2%, the S&P 500 is up two point 1% and the NASDAQ
is up 2.4%. Even the Russell 2K is up 4.83%.
This is across the board a massive day in the market.
My portfolios likewise are at all time highs.
They've reached a point that they've never reached before and
each one of them has, with the passive income portfolio gaining
$290,000 in gains. Just today it's up $15,000,
around 3% in the green. If we look at the story fund
here, this is now up to $90,000 in the green.
Many of the companies in My Portfolio are like a rocket
today. They're just taking off.
But the impact is different from company to company, and there
are some that are doing a little bit better than others.
For example, if we look at one company, this one's not in My
Portfolio. Tesla is having a very good day.
Obviously, this is following Donald Trump's win.
Elon Musk has aligned himself with Donald Trump.
He kind of hitched himself to that wagon.
That turned out to be a good move for Elon Musk.
Tesla is now up 14% on the day. We have other stocks like Texas
Roadhouse up huge today, 6% on the day, crossing $200 per
share. Why is Texas Roadhouse above 6%
on the day? We're going to be discussing.
We have other companies like Salesforce up 3%.
Visa and MasterCard both are up 3 and 4%.
Huge days for these companies. We'll be discussing why they're
going up so much. Google, a company that's been
struggling with any bullish sentiment, is now up 3% on the
day. And this impact is from the
elections. There are specific things that
may be happening to Google. We also look at companies like
Intuit, up 6% on the day. We have Amazon up 3%.
We have S&P Global as an outlier.
Both S&P Global and Moody's are both in the red today by a
decent margin. Why are these companies trading
down while so many companies are trading up?
We're going to be discussing the reasons why.
And then we have other companies continuing their trend upwards,
like Booking Holdings. Many stocks are being impacted
more than others in various ways, and that has to do with
the policy that investors are reading into these stocks, the
policies that investors believe will happen over the next four
years. So we're going to be going over
all of it. We'll be looking at the impacts
this will have on companies like Tesla and other big tech
companies from Dan Ives and Gene Munster.
We'll be looking at what David Rubenstein says about a Trump
presidency in terms of regulation and how it will
impact these type of investments.
So we have a lot to get into in this episode.
Let's go ahead and jump in now. We start off today with the
headline news. Of course, Donald Trump won
presidency again. And going into the selection, I
had a thought in my mind that it was going to be a close 1A nail
biter, a really bitter election where when we were voting and
counting the votes, it was going to come in real close for each
state. It was going to drag on for the
next day, maybe even a couple days, and be one of those
situations that's really tense and really close.
And that's not really what we got.
This was a convincing win by Donald Trump.
When we look at the election results reported from the Wall
Street Journal, the take away here is that this wasn't quite
as close as some of us thought it would be.
For example, we look at the Electoral College.
Donald Trump officially passed the 270 mark to officially
become president. The Electoral College is what
counts. That's what determines who wins
presidency. But even though he crossed the
line at 277, there's still a number of swing states still
tallying votes that the official vote count will be counted
eventually. And all of those are leaning
towards Trump. So it's likely that he's going
to win by a larger margin than he has right now.
Now, in the case of Republicans winning, in many cases, they
lose the popular vote. In this case, it looks like
Trump is actually going to win the popular vote.
He has a 4 million vote lead on the popular vote.
Republicans also took control of the Senate, and it looks like
there's a good chance they'll take control of the House as
well. So this wasn't as close as I
thought it was going to be. It was overall a decisive
victory for Donald Trump and the Republicans.
Now, in these cases, I always understand that there's people
that don't agree with this. Of course, nearly half the
country doesn't. It's never fun to be on the side
when you're you're losing. Every one of us have been there.
If you've been an adult a long enough, you're going to feel
what it feels like to lose. And that's never fun.
And in this case, it's going to give time for the Democrat Party
to figure out what went wrong, to recoup, to re strategize and
come to 2028 with a much stronger ticket.
But until then, this was a decisive victory.
So now that we finally know who's going to become president,
we can all get the elections behind us and move on with life.
And that's a relief for many investors.
Uncertainty is never something that people look forward to.
So knowing who's going to be president and having that
uncertainty behind us is 1 positive thing for the markets.
But in this case, with a Trump victory, the capital markets are
clearly reacting with a lot of extra positivity.
And that is because of many of the policies Trump has signaled
with lower taxes and lowered regulations.
David Rubenstein outlines Trump's legislative agenda and
how it will impact the markets. Clearly, the stock market today
will be up very strongly. I think many people in the
financial markets were pushing for and wanted a Trump victory,
and they got that. But also what you got out of the
election appears to be a very strong, united government in the
sense that the president is likely to have the House and the
Senate. Not just the majority, but many
people in the House and Senate will feel they got elected
because of him and not since 1964 when the Lyndon Johnson won
overwhelmingly and he had big majorities in the House and the
Senate, many of which those seats came about because of
Johnson's strong coattails. Did you have a president with
this kind of power? So a Donald Trump has the power
as president to do get a lot done through Congress.
And I think members of Congress will go along a lot with what
what he wants. Even when President Obama had
majority of the House in the Senate initially, he didn't have
quite the coattail effects that I think Donald Trump has had in
this election. So I think you're going to see a
united government. I think the country seems to
want a united government. I think you're also likely to
see the markets go up for a while for sure.
He believes that not only is a stock market going up big time
today, but he believes that's going to carry forward into the
future because this wasn't just a Trump victory by narrow
margins with the divided House and Senate.
This was a mandate. Trump won a big landslide here.
And it looks like he's going to win a united House and Senate,
meaning that many of the things he's wanting to get done, his
principal policies of lowering taxes and deregulation, have a
better chance of getting passed. Now, if we get those things that
investors look for, deregulation, lower taxes, speed
up GDP growth, that, of course, would be a positive for the
market. So investors are already pricing
in some of this happening because the path of actually
implementing it seems more clear now in terms of policies that
are likely to be implemented. One of them is, of course,
tariffs. Donald Trump has repeatedly
talked about tariff in China, and that is something that does
not require approval from Congress.
So as soon as he takes over presidency, he can slap tariffs
on China or raise the tariffs or do what he wants in regard to
that. The other thing that does
require approval from Congress is taxes.
The Trump tax cuts that have been in effect for the past four
years are set to expire relatively soon.
I think his main legislative initiative, though I obviously
can't speak for him, would probably be things in the tax
area. His tax cuts for five years ago
are expiring, and so if he wants to have them extended or
enhanced, he'll have to get that done relatively quickly.
I suspect if he controls the House Ways and Means Committee,
the Senate Finance Committee, and looks like he will, he
shouldn't have as much difficulty getting that done.
Many of the policies that Donald Trump will be working on have
already been in play for the past four years.
We've already had some level of tariffs on China and we've
already had the Donald Trump tax cuts.
The difference is instead of changing them or taking them
away, he's likely going to work to extend them.
Now, if we look forward to at least the next two years of
passing lower taxes and less regulation, obviously the
markets going to look at that positively.
But the response here is incredible.
It's crazy. My portfolios are going up just
like a rocket ship today. This one is up $15,000.
It's really incredible to see. This is an all time high for the
passive income portfolio. We have gains of $290,000, which
is just incredible to see and a total portfolio value of
780,000. If we switch over to the story
fund, we see the same thing here.
We're reaching all new all time gains up to $90,000 total in
games with a total portfolio value of $254,000.
So it's incredible to see the gains here.
But Even so, there are some companies that are winning more
than other companies. There are some winners and
losers here. The first one that we can look
at is actually one that's not in My Portfolio, but it's a company
having a particularly good day, which is Tesla.
Tesla's up almost 15% on the day.
And obviously this is a response Elon Musk aligning himself with
Donald Trump. I believe a lot of this comes
down to regulation. If we look at Elon Musk's
businesses, of course, a lot of them require a ton of government
regulation, government approvals, working in line with
government. For example, he owns Tesla,
SpaceX, Neuralink, and X. All of these companies that Elon
Musk owns are intertwined with the government in terms of
regulation. You can see all these regulatory
bodies here that are already investigating and looking into
these companies. They have oversight over them
and some level of influence. So if you're friendly with the
president and someone that has influence over all these
regulatory bodies, that's going to be a good thing for your
companies. Gene Munster explains why part
of this move is driven by the emotion of this change.
I believe Tesla is up today because of emotion.
And I think the emotion of Tesla investors, their leader of
course, is Elon. He just had a big bet that paid
off. And then we quickly look to
what's the next big bet and the probabilities.
And the next big bet for Tesla is around autonomy.
And he's been very clear that this is the future of the
company. And forget about what's going to
happen with EVs and tax credit. What matters when it comes to
Trump and Elon Musk is Trump's ability to make it easier for
Musk to advance. What they're doing around
autonomy, around their their tech stack, to use less Lidar,
for example, That is going to be the the regulatory piece around
FSD autonomy is going to be more challenging than the technology
piece. And that took a big step forward
today. With Tesla being a company so
reliant on regulatory hurdles, having yourself aligned with the
person in charge is certainly a benefit to the Tesla investor.
So there's a reason for Tesla investors to be a bit more
optimistic about the future. Another person that has been
consistently bullish on Tesla's, Dan Ives, and he reiterates the
same thing, the same sentiment that this is going to be a
positive impact on the future of Tesla, mostly because of the
regulatory hurdles. So I think there's three things.
One is that the EV tax credits get taken away and I think that
even though negative for EV sector, foolish for Tesla
because they're scale and scope surveilling firms.
Bad for Detroit, though. Bad for Detroit, Bad for, of
course. Bad for GM, Bad for.
As well. Which I and and my view going
into this was like that was a potential risk now he.
Says that the EV credits being taken away is a good thing for
Tesla and the logic here is that even though it will directly
impact Tesla negatively, it'll hurt Tesla's competitors even
more. So in the case the EV credits
get taken away, it actually increases the mode of Tesla.
It distances Tesla further from their nearest competitors.
Now outside of Tesla, there's a number of companies that are
also having big surge upwards today, Google being one of them.
Google's a company that I own and I've owned it for some time.
It's a company that I've been bullish on for actually quite
some time. I've owned it in the story fund.
It's been one of my core holdings.
I'm currently around $16,000 in the green position size,
currently at $44,000. This is where I've owned it for
the longest, but I started buying into Google just recently
in the passive income portfolio as well.
I traded out of Canadian Pacific, bought more into
Google, and I'm bullish on this company.
I'm buying it right now. In fact, I'm actually buying
more Google today. I currently bought $33,000 more.
This new position is up around $1100.
I've gone over the various reasons why I'm bullish on
Google because of the low valuation, the low expectations,
the resilience of their search business, the growth of YouTube,
especially the growth of their cloud business, and revenue and
margin. Overall, I really like the story
and evaluation of Google, which is difficult to find in a market
like this. But Google has been struggling
to gain traction. A lot of investors are concerned
about this company, and today we see it up 3 1/2 percent.
Now, the reason that Google is likely to move up in a Trump
presidency is specifically because of deregulation.
Right now, Big tech is under attack by every regulatory body.
Right now, the FTC director is Lena Khan, who is outwardly
antagonistic against companies like Google and Amazon.
In fact, she wrote her entire thesis in college on breaking up
and breaking down Amazon. Now, we don't know for sure if
Donald Trump will replace Lena Khan with a new FTC director.
So far, JD Vance has mentioned that he actually views her
positively in some aspects, that he likes some of the things
she's doing. So there's some positive
sentiment there as well. But I think there's a good
chance that this is a role that will likely be changed.
Don't know for sure, but there is some speculation on that.
If Lina Khan is taken out of this role and there's someone
that's a bit more friendly towards larger companies like
Alphabet, like Amazon, if they're not constantly under
threat of being broken up, being fined, having acquisitions
blocked, that's going to be a positive thing for these
companies. Reuters has reported that Donald
Trump is likely to shift the course on these antitrust cases
and not seek for breakup. He's mentioned before, quote, if
you do that, you are going to destroy the company.
What you can do without breaking it up is more fair.
So he's already shown some sentiment against breaking up.
So we can see that this tone change with a regulatory
environment does have an impact on companies like Amazon and
Google. Both of them are up today.
I also believe that part of the reason these companies are going
up is simply because they're just undervalued.
I think both Google and Amazon are worth a bit more than they
are today. I have both of their estimates
around $220. Another company that was
somewhat more surprising is the monumental rise in Texas
Roadhouse. This, of course, is one of my
key holdings. Now.
It sounds a little silly because it's just a small restaurant.
It's a $13 billion market cap. They have like 800 locations.
And this isn't some big tech company.
It's not NVIDIA. It's not some worldclass AI
company. They sell tasty rolls in steaks,
rice, mashed potatoes, you name it.
Texas Roadhouse is just a restaurant.
But it's been one of the best performing stocks over the past
five years, beating out many companies this year.
So far this year, when you factor in the hefty dividend
they pay, it's up over 70% on the year and with it rising
another nearly 6% on the day, we've surpassed $200 per share,
making Texas Roadhouse the most profitable company I've invested
in since the beginning of My Portfolio with current gains of
$53,000 and a total position size of $87,000.
And right now, this company has moved my third largest position
in My Portfolio. This is one that I had to think
about more because they didn't face any type of regulations.
They didn't face any type of disruption risk.
I believe the primary reason that Texas Roadhouse is doing a
little bit better today is simply the projection of lowered
and maintained tax levels. Companies like Texas Roadhouse
have very small margins. Restaurants are not high margin
businesses, they're low margin, high volume businesses.
So any fluctuation in effective tax rate has a huge impact on
their overall profitability. So if Texas Roadhouse was to
hypothetically have their taxes raised another 3 or 4% from a
hypothetical Kamala victory, then this would eat into the
earnings of the company. It wouldn't destroy it, it
wouldn't cause destruction to it, but it would eat into the
earnings a little bit for the company. 2 business that are
likewise in the green a lot today are Visa, MasterCard.
Again, these are two companies that are dominant monopolistic
companies that will benefit from a less regulatory burden
environment. Another one of My Portfolio that
popped a lot today is into it. This one's up almost 6% on the
day. Now, there's a couple reasons
why this one could be surging today, but I believe the biggest
one is because under the Biden administration, there was a
strong effort to create a free government tax solution.
And that's something that's not likely to get as much priority
under a Trump administration. Now, two companies that are
breaking the mold, ones that are either flat or in the red on
this enormous Green Day, are and Global and Moodys.
O What gives? Why are Moodys and Global
trading down while the rest of the market is surging?
Well, the primary reason I believe is because of a term
called ESG. Both Moody's and S&P Global have
aspects of their business where they sell ESG ratings, which is
environmental, social and governance ratings for
companies. It's basically a rating given to
assess the non financial risks of a company.
Now this term ESG has become heavily politicized.
Over the past eight years it's been something that Republicans
have fought against. Republicans believe it's a bit
of a Trojan horse in controlling these different companies.
So with Trump winning, there's one small portion of S&P
Global's business that could be impacted negatively if they were
to take a big stance against ESG ratings or to try to regulate
them or do something negative to them.
That's the only reason that I can think of the S&P Global and
Moody's would be in the red on this day.
From a long term perspective, as someone that's invested in both
of these stocks, I don't think it's going to have a long term
negative impact. They're going to continue
selling this data and analytics to companies, and if they have
to rebrand it from ESG to something different and pivot
what they're selling a little bit, I don't think that's going
to be too much of a problem. Now finally we get to another
holding, which this has been the best investment I've made over
the past six months. Booking holdings.
It surpassed $5000 per share, up 2.3% on the day.
This is incredible. When I invested in this one, it
was a bit of lucky timing. I came out with a video and the
stock dropped when I already had done research on it.
And that is the best situation when you've already done a lot
of research on a company, you're thoroughly convinced it's a
great company, it's a great bet. The risk and reward is already
good and then the price goes down for reasons that don't make
sense. During this earnings report that
the stock dropped, they raised guidance, they beat on their
earnings and on their revenue. Everything looked great.
Even the CEO said this is a great report.
We don't know what Wall Street thinks.
We don't really care what they think, but our business is doing
well. That's what the CEO said about
the company when the stock dropped 10 or 15%.
So I was able to pick up a lot of shares during this time.
That was a low point for it, and it's just surged upwards since
then, going from $3300 per share now to $5000 per share.
When I look at Booking holdings today and the future of this
company, I still believe it's very bright.
They offer travel and vacation experiences.
This is an area that I think is good to invest in right now.
GDP per capita is growing rather quickly.
People are inheriting lots of money from their parents.
They have money to spend. Not everybody wants to spend it
on things. Most people want to spend it on
experiences and booking holdings is a bridge you have to pass to
go on those experiences. So this company maintains a very
advantageous position to be in. So like I said before the
elections, like I would say after every election, including
the one four years ago where Biden won, I made a video after
that election as well saying that I'm bullish on America and
I remain the exact same today. I'm still bullish on this
country. I think it's going to do great.
We have so many smart people here.
We have so many great companies. There's so many opportunities.
Now that the election is over and earning season is winding
down, I'll be coming out with more news oriented content as
well as deep dives in the different companies.
I have a deep dive into a company that I've not talked
much about that I think is very compelling.
I'll be releasing that one relatively soon.
If you want to see it, just make sure you subscribe to the
channel. Other than that, see you next
time.