1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,080 Welcome back everyone. Today on details of Carlson 2 00:00:02,080 --> 00:00:05,520 Show, Meta's fast growing competitor to Twitter threads 3 00:00:05,520 --> 00:00:08,760 that reached 100 million users after only a couple of days. 4 00:00:09,120 --> 00:00:12,400 Well, user engagement is now reportedly dropping like a rock. 5 00:00:12,400 --> 00:00:15,600 It's down 70% from its high. We're going to take a look at 6 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,240 what's going on with threads. We also have some interesting 7 00:00:18,240 --> 00:00:21,840 news that Sergey Brin, one of the original founders of Google, 8 00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:25,400 as apparently back in the trenches working again at 9 00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:28,600 Google, specifically focused on AI projects. 10 00:00:28,640 --> 00:00:31,240 Why did he return? Why is he focusing on AI? 11 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:33,440 What does this mean with Google? We're going to be taking a look 12 00:00:33,440 --> 00:00:35,120 at it now. We of course had this week 13 00:00:35,120 --> 00:00:38,840 kickoff earnings with notable companies, Tesla and Netflix 14 00:00:38,840 --> 00:00:41,660 giving their earnings. We have interviews on Netflix 15 00:00:41,660 --> 00:00:45,300 with Tom Rogers and we have Dan Ives giving his commentary on 16 00:00:45,300 --> 00:00:46,940 Tesla. So be looking at both of these 17 00:00:46,940 --> 00:00:48,860 interviews and seeing what we can learn from this week's 18 00:00:48,860 --> 00:00:50,380 earnings. And then of course, it's Friday, 19 00:00:50,380 --> 00:00:53,740 which means we turn to TikTok and try to get the insights from 20 00:00:53,740 --> 00:00:57,140 the best investors, the best financial advice on the web. 21 00:00:57,500 --> 00:01:00,460 And in this case, this woman here is going to tell us how to 22 00:01:00,460 --> 00:01:04,239 turn an incredibly small amount of money into a much, much 23 00:01:04,239 --> 00:01:06,400 larger amount of money. I show you how I turned my 24 00:01:06,400 --> 00:01:10,160 initial $300.00 investment into well over 6 figures in a span of 25 00:01:10,160 --> 00:01:14,720 two years. A $300.00 investment into over 6 26 00:01:14,720 --> 00:01:18,600 figures in less than two years. That is a rapid rate of growth 27 00:01:18,600 --> 00:01:21,400 that puts her into one of the best investors in the world, so 28 00:01:21,400 --> 00:01:22,720 I'm excited to go through this one. 29 00:01:22,800 --> 00:01:24,560 Now, this has been a really fun week. 30 00:01:24,560 --> 00:01:27,360 I love earnings season because we get a check in on these 31 00:01:27,360 --> 00:01:29,870 companies, see how they're doing, see if they're 32 00:01:29,870 --> 00:01:31,830 compounding or if things go wrong can. 33 00:01:31,830 --> 00:01:35,230 It brings a lot of excitement and fun into investing, but it's 34 00:01:35,230 --> 00:01:39,310 also very informative. Now this week for me has been a 35 00:01:39,310 --> 00:01:41,310 great week. My companies, I think have done 36 00:01:41,310 --> 00:01:44,430 really well. Granted, most of them themselves 37 00:01:44,430 --> 00:01:47,590 have not reported earnings, so next week is going to be the 38 00:01:47,590 --> 00:01:51,710 real test for My Portfolio. But as of the past five days, 39 00:01:51,990 --> 00:01:58,310 this portfolio, my main one, is up 1.73%, outpacing the S&P 500. 40 00:01:58,630 --> 00:02:00,590 I'm very happy with the performance here. 41 00:02:00,870 --> 00:02:03,670 We're making gains, we're layering gains on every single 42 00:02:03,670 --> 00:02:06,470 week. Now if I look at this on a case 43 00:02:06,470 --> 00:02:09,550 by case basis and see what happened over the past week, we 44 00:02:09,550 --> 00:02:13,390 can just take a quick glance. S&P Global made good gains 2%. 45 00:02:13,390 --> 00:02:16,950 MasterCard was one of the outliers, down .4%. 46 00:02:17,430 --> 00:02:20,670 I'll forgive MasterCard for this past week, but it's one of the 47 00:02:20,670 --> 00:02:22,430 worst performers in My Portfolio. 48 00:02:22,880 --> 00:02:26,760 We have Intuit, which is making huge gains over the past month. 49 00:02:27,000 --> 00:02:30,560 It's up 3% just this week. Intuits, one of the newer 50 00:02:30,560 --> 00:02:33,080 holdings in the portfolio. I think it's a wonderful 51 00:02:33,080 --> 00:02:35,290 company. We look at the tech category. 52 00:02:35,450 --> 00:02:38,170 Microsoft is in the green ever so slightly. 53 00:02:38,290 --> 00:02:41,010 We have Apple up 1.32% over the week. 54 00:02:41,090 --> 00:02:44,130 In the real estate category, we have my biggest gainer for the 55 00:02:44,130 --> 00:02:47,170 week, up 4%. In the consumer category, we 56 00:02:47,170 --> 00:02:51,690 have my main holding care, Costco, that's up 2.39%. 57 00:02:51,730 --> 00:02:55,250 Texas Roadhouse is hitting all time highs, going up 1.82%, 58 00:02:55,530 --> 00:02:59,860 hitting prices above $116. Starbucks is also making some 59 00:02:59,860 --> 00:03:01,900 gains. It's up 1.16%. 60 00:03:01,900 --> 00:03:04,580 And then even the railroads. I've been waiting around for 61 00:03:04,580 --> 00:03:07,260 these companies to do something and they're finally making some 62 00:03:07,260 --> 00:03:09,780 gains. Canadian Pacific is up 1%. 63 00:03:09,940 --> 00:03:13,540 Union Pacific is up 2.38% over the past five days. 64 00:03:13,580 --> 00:03:17,340 In the past week, that's the combined $8500. 65 00:03:17,380 --> 00:03:19,300 Now, we don't want to get complacent here. 66 00:03:19,380 --> 00:03:22,460 A lot of these gains are from market momentum, from bullish 67 00:03:22,460 --> 00:03:25,820 sentiment, from people that used to be in cash now piling money 68 00:03:25,820 --> 00:03:28,790 back into the market. So we have to remain cautious 69 00:03:28,790 --> 00:03:30,910 and on guard. And if you know me as an 70 00:03:30,910 --> 00:03:35,350 investor, I become very almost nervous and cautious and 71 00:03:35,350 --> 00:03:37,790 concerned. When things seem too good to be 72 00:03:37,790 --> 00:03:41,270 true, when stock prices are racing up, when the portfolio is 73 00:03:41,270 --> 00:03:44,550 surpassing 10s of thousands of dollars seemingly every couple 74 00:03:44,550 --> 00:03:47,150 of days, that's when I become nervous. 75 00:03:47,510 --> 00:03:51,070 I get a little bit of a grimace face hair when things are going 76 00:03:51,070 --> 00:03:55,110 down, when stocks are going in the red every single day, when 77 00:03:55,110 --> 00:03:58,440 there's continued downward momentum, that's when I become 78 00:03:58,560 --> 00:04:01,040 very greedy. I get excited when that happens. 79 00:04:01,240 --> 00:04:02,760 That's what I'm doing. Big buys. 80 00:04:02,760 --> 00:04:05,640 That's what I'm depositing money that's in my savings account to 81 00:04:05,640 --> 00:04:08,960 buy and scoop up companies at lower P/E's and lower free cash 82 00:04:08,960 --> 00:04:12,320 flow yields. But right now I'm in the nervous 83 00:04:12,320 --> 00:04:14,680 mode. I'm a little bit cautious right 84 00:04:14,680 --> 00:04:17,040 now. I'm just feeling like investors 85 00:04:17,040 --> 00:04:21,120 are a little too bold this week. We're a little too aggressive, 86 00:04:21,740 --> 00:04:25,140 so I'm remaining very cautious. I'm watching my companies 87 00:04:25,140 --> 00:04:27,180 closely. I'm looking at the fundamentals 88 00:04:27,180 --> 00:04:29,980 and the intrinsic values. I refuse to have FOMO or get 89 00:04:29,980 --> 00:04:32,100 swept up with the excitement of the herd. 90 00:04:32,180 --> 00:04:34,580 And if you watched my previous video, you would see that I 91 00:04:34,580 --> 00:04:38,060 created a chart here that had my valuation estimates, what I 92 00:04:38,060 --> 00:04:41,060 assume is the intrinsic value of each of my holdings and my watch 93 00:04:41,060 --> 00:04:43,540 list. And I'm still referencing this. 94 00:04:43,660 --> 00:04:46,140 Again, next week is when most of the companies report their 95 00:04:46,140 --> 00:04:47,940 earnings. So we're going to get an update 96 00:04:47,940 --> 00:04:51,240 on this and maybe we'll get a big sell off, maybe we'll have a 97 00:04:51,240 --> 00:04:53,640 big pull back. I'll be looking at which company 98 00:04:53,640 --> 00:04:56,440 pulls back and I might buy an aggressive amount of that 99 00:04:56,440 --> 00:04:58,440 company. Maybe it's on my watch list. 100 00:04:58,800 --> 00:05:02,240 If all the companies in My Portfolio do really well and we 101 00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:05,400 don't have any type of pullback and we have a good one and one 102 00:05:05,400 --> 00:05:08,720 of these companies on the watch list, I may add these as a new 103 00:05:08,720 --> 00:05:10,880 position to the passive income portfolio. 104 00:05:10,960 --> 00:05:13,000 So this next week is going to be a very busy one. 105 00:05:13,300 --> 00:05:15,340 You're going to want to tune in. I'm going to have a lot of 106 00:05:15,340 --> 00:05:18,900 videos on earnings reports, reactions to them, what I think 107 00:05:18,900 --> 00:05:21,300 has happened with these companies, the intrinsic value, 108 00:05:21,460 --> 00:05:25,140 the fundamental direction, we're going to be covering a ton and 109 00:05:25,140 --> 00:05:27,500 ultimately I'll decide what I'm going to be doing with this 110 00:05:27,500 --> 00:05:29,420 cash. So make sure you're tuned in 111 00:05:29,420 --> 00:05:31,660 next week, make sure you're subscribed with the Bell 112 00:05:31,660 --> 00:05:33,940 notification. So I look forward to the busy 113 00:05:33,940 --> 00:05:36,540 earnings week ahead. Now moving on to some news we 114 00:05:36,540 --> 00:05:40,190 have, we have some a little disappointing news for meta 115 00:05:40,190 --> 00:05:42,030 investors. I'm sure this one's not going to 116 00:05:42,030 --> 00:05:45,350 be met with a lot of enthusiasm by meta investors, but 117 00:05:45,350 --> 00:05:49,550 unfortunately Threads, the socalled Twitter killer, is 118 00:05:49,550 --> 00:05:52,590 having a bit of a pullback in engagement and usage. 119 00:05:52,630 --> 00:05:55,590 The report states that for the second week in a row, the number 120 00:05:55,590 --> 00:05:59,030 of daily active users has declined on threads, falling to 121 00:05:59,070 --> 00:06:03,800 13 million, down from around 70% from the July 7th peak. 122 00:06:03,880 --> 00:06:08,480 It shows the initial peak of the honeymoon period of excitement 123 00:06:08,480 --> 00:06:10,800 and curiosity. What is this new threats? 124 00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:12,960 Is it better than Twitter? How does it function? 125 00:06:12,960 --> 00:06:16,350 Does it have a nice animation? It all looks interesting at the 126 00:06:16,350 --> 00:06:19,910 beginning, but then people started to go right back to what 127 00:06:19,910 --> 00:06:22,910 they're using before. If they came from Instagram, 128 00:06:23,030 --> 00:06:25,910 they went back to Instagram. If they came from Twitter, they 129 00:06:25,910 --> 00:06:29,590 started going back to Twitter. It's down 70% from its peak, 130 00:06:29,670 --> 00:06:32,710 down to 13 million daily active users. 131 00:06:32,750 --> 00:06:35,830 It raced up to 100 million registered users, which was 132 00:06:35,830 --> 00:06:38,550 incredible growth and a lot of people thought it would overtake 133 00:06:38,550 --> 00:06:41,800 Twitter right away. But the amount of daily active 134 00:06:41,800 --> 00:06:44,720 users is much more important than the total number of 135 00:06:44,720 --> 00:06:47,800 registered users. Registering just takes one step. 136 00:06:48,120 --> 00:06:51,480 Using the app every single day is what's really difficult to 137 00:06:51,480 --> 00:06:55,160 accomplish. The average time spent is also 138 00:06:55,160 --> 00:06:58,240 declining on threads. It's decreased by 4 minutes down 139 00:06:58,240 --> 00:07:01,080 to 19 minutes on average. Twitter, on the other hand, has 140 00:07:01,080 --> 00:07:04,640 daily active users remaining steady at around 200,000,000. 141 00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:09,120 So Twitter has around 15 times the daily active users that 142 00:07:09,120 --> 00:07:12,390 Threads has. So a lot of people that thought 143 00:07:12,390 --> 00:07:15,550 it would instantly overtake it. It doesn't seem like that's 144 00:07:15,550 --> 00:07:19,030 happening. And even though Twitter has 15 145 00:07:19,030 --> 00:07:23,030 times the daily active users currently the average time spent 146 00:07:23,030 --> 00:07:26,870 on Twitter is 30 minutes a day, which is a good 10 minutes over 147 00:07:26,870 --> 00:07:29,460 threads. So people are using Twitter more 148 00:07:29,460 --> 00:07:31,020 and they're using Twitter longer. 149 00:07:31,020 --> 00:07:34,340 So let's just do an examination of what went right here and what 150 00:07:34,340 --> 00:07:36,260 went wrong. The first thing that went right 151 00:07:36,260 --> 00:07:39,660 here is Mark Zuckerberg timed the release of threads really 152 00:07:39,660 --> 00:07:42,180 well. He saw weakness in Twitter. 153 00:07:42,460 --> 00:07:44,980 Twitter was rate limiting people at the time. 154 00:07:45,300 --> 00:07:47,820 It caused a lot of bad blood with Twitter users. 155 00:07:47,820 --> 00:07:49,500 They did not like being rate limited. 156 00:07:49,870 --> 00:07:53,390 Even though the rate limiting affected less than 1% of Twitter 157 00:07:53,390 --> 00:07:55,830 users, it was still frustrating to a lot of people. 158 00:07:55,950 --> 00:07:58,230 Threads was released right during that time period. 159 00:07:58,270 --> 00:08:01,150 They took advantage of a weakness in Twitter and they got 160 00:08:01,150 --> 00:08:04,630 the influx of users. But the big problem is they 161 00:08:04,630 --> 00:08:07,870 rushed it out ahead of schedule and they don't have many of the 162 00:08:07,870 --> 00:08:10,870 features in parity with Twitter. They don't have advanced 163 00:08:10,870 --> 00:08:13,590 searches, They don't have chronological feeds, They don't 164 00:08:13,590 --> 00:08:15,510 have tickers that you can search in and out. 165 00:08:15,890 --> 00:08:18,490 They don't have a lot of the basic support that Twitter has. 166 00:08:18,570 --> 00:08:21,170 For a lot of those reasons, including stuff like not being 167 00:08:21,170 --> 00:08:25,010 able to direct message people, Twitter became preferred again 168 00:08:25,050 --> 00:08:28,250 very quickly after trying out threads and that's where we see 169 00:08:28,250 --> 00:08:31,370 the decline and users now. A lot of this is expected with 170 00:08:31,370 --> 00:08:34,650 any type of huge viral boom. Typically, it doesn't just 171 00:08:34,650 --> 00:08:36,330 continue to go up in a straight line. 172 00:08:36,530 --> 00:08:39,770 You can see some big pull back after the initial reaction, 173 00:08:40,020 --> 00:08:41,700 after the initial interest in the app. 174 00:08:41,700 --> 00:08:44,540 And in my opinion, if I was a met investor, I would not be too 175 00:08:44,540 --> 00:08:47,220 concerned about this. I think it's just a temporary 176 00:08:47,220 --> 00:08:49,740 thing for them. They'll continue to build usage 177 00:08:49,740 --> 00:08:53,500 over time as they stabilize and grow new features in the app. 178 00:08:53,940 --> 00:08:57,980 But the big message here is that network effects are real. 179 00:08:58,180 --> 00:09:01,300 They are very, very difficult to overcome. 180 00:09:01,580 --> 00:09:05,620 When a lot of people use a certain thing, it's very 181 00:09:05,620 --> 00:09:08,980 difficult to get them to stop using that certain thing. 182 00:09:09,430 --> 00:09:11,550 Twitter has stood up to many competitors. 183 00:09:11,590 --> 00:09:13,470 Many new Twitter clones have come out. 184 00:09:13,470 --> 00:09:16,710 Meta has positioned themselves as by far the biggest threat, 185 00:09:17,030 --> 00:09:20,910 and even Meta is struggling at fighting against those strong 186 00:09:20,910 --> 00:09:22,870 network effects. So when you look at your 187 00:09:22,870 --> 00:09:26,670 companies and your portfolio, consider the network effects 188 00:09:26,670 --> 00:09:29,670 your companies have. Why is MasterCard such a great 189 00:09:29,670 --> 00:09:32,830 company with such a significant Moat The network? 190 00:09:32,870 --> 00:09:34,990 They literally have network effects. 191 00:09:35,190 --> 00:09:38,150 So many people use them because so many people use them. 192 00:09:38,500 --> 00:09:41,780 The same thing with S&P Global, The same thing with Intuit. 193 00:09:41,780 --> 00:09:44,660 And their software network effects are everywhere. 194 00:09:44,780 --> 00:09:48,100 They provide tremendous moats. The moats can be broken, but 195 00:09:48,100 --> 00:09:50,620 it's very, very difficult. Now, we also have a bit of 196 00:09:50,620 --> 00:09:53,900 surprising news here that Sergey Brin, one of the original 197 00:09:53,900 --> 00:09:58,780 founders of Google, a guy that's worth nearly $100 billion, is 198 00:09:58,780 --> 00:10:00,940 back in the trenches working at Google. 199 00:10:00,980 --> 00:10:03,340 He has worked closely with a group of researchers building 200 00:10:03,340 --> 00:10:06,020 Google's long-awaited AI model, Gemini. 201 00:10:06,180 --> 00:10:09,020 They have discussed technical matters such as lost curves, a 202 00:10:09,020 --> 00:10:12,340 way of measuring an AI program's performance, overtime and Brim 203 00:10:12,340 --> 00:10:15,500 has convened weekly discussions of new AI research with Google 204 00:10:15,500 --> 00:10:17,900 employees. He also has intervened in 205 00:10:17,900 --> 00:10:20,460 personal matters, such as the hiring it sought after 206 00:10:20,460 --> 00:10:23,020 researchers, according to people familiar with this matter. 207 00:10:23,100 --> 00:10:25,940 Now, obviously something around this project has caught Bren's 208 00:10:25,940 --> 00:10:28,940 attention because if you're worth $100 billion, you don't 209 00:10:28,940 --> 00:10:31,140 have to do anything that you don't want to do. 210 00:10:31,420 --> 00:10:34,220 So he's doing this just because he's interested in it. 211 00:10:34,260 --> 00:10:37,340 He wants to help out with this. Gemini is Google's attempt to 212 00:10:37,340 --> 00:10:41,780 build the general purpose AI program that can rival Open Ai's 213 00:10:41,780 --> 00:10:44,420 ChatGPT 4 model. And they're saying that this 214 00:10:44,420 --> 00:10:46,460 program will be available later this year. 215 00:10:46,460 --> 00:10:49,140 Now, I don't know that Brin's presence here will be extremely 216 00:10:49,140 --> 00:10:51,060 impactful. I don't know if he's an AI 217 00:10:51,060 --> 00:10:53,340 expert. He's obviously very intelligent, 218 00:10:53,340 --> 00:10:55,300 so he's probably going to help out with the effort. 219 00:10:55,730 --> 00:10:58,370 But I also think it's a show of support of how important this 220 00:10:58,370 --> 00:11:01,570 project is, Something cool enough to make it so that 221 00:11:01,730 --> 00:11:05,050 someone that's retired worth a ton of money, has a great deal 222 00:11:05,050 --> 00:11:07,250 of interest in this and is willing to go back to work. 223 00:11:07,250 --> 00:11:09,890 So Google's still pushing forward heavily with AI, and I'm 224 00:11:09,890 --> 00:11:12,050 excited to see what they come out with later this year. 225 00:11:12,210 --> 00:11:14,250 Now, Next up, we have Netflix's earnings report. 226 00:11:14,530 --> 00:11:17,290 I've made a previous video about this because I thought that the 227 00:11:17,290 --> 00:11:19,930 earnings report was very good overall. 228 00:11:19,930 --> 00:11:21,650 I thought it was a very strong report. 229 00:11:22,020 --> 00:11:25,660 Netflix gained 5.9 million new subscribers. 230 00:11:25,900 --> 00:11:28,100 That's a very good number of subscribers. 231 00:11:28,340 --> 00:11:30,700 They beat on their earnings by a decent margin. 232 00:11:30,860 --> 00:11:33,060 They slightly missed on their revenue estimate. 233 00:11:33,580 --> 00:11:37,380 But when a company has this big of expectations going into 234 00:11:37,380 --> 00:11:40,740 earnings, when it has the type of run up that Netflix has had 235 00:11:40,740 --> 00:11:44,980 this year, it's very difficult to surpass expectations. 236 00:11:45,020 --> 00:11:47,860 The company's literally up 50% just over the past couple of 237 00:11:47,860 --> 00:11:49,380 months. So it's trading down a little 238 00:11:49,380 --> 00:11:52,260 bit, giving up some of the prior gains going back just a couple 239 00:11:52,260 --> 00:11:54,060 weeks. So despite the sell off, I 240 00:11:54,060 --> 00:11:56,460 actually believe that Netflix's earnings report was pretty 241 00:11:56,460 --> 00:11:59,740 strong overall. Now we have Tom Rogers on CNBC 242 00:11:59,900 --> 00:12:03,860 who has been someone that so far has been spot on on Netflix. 243 00:12:04,060 --> 00:12:07,020 He's really made all the right calls with this company. 244 00:12:07,220 --> 00:12:12,130 Let's step back a minute. Contrast that earnings call with 245 00:12:12,170 --> 00:12:17,930 the Eiger interview with David Faber last week and it's it's. 246 00:12:17,930 --> 00:12:22,010 Night and day, you're talking about a company with Netflix 247 00:12:22,010 --> 00:12:25,610 that just doesn't have to deal with the burden of decline. 248 00:12:25,970 --> 00:12:29,370 And what happens when your current business model is thrown 249 00:12:29,370 --> 00:12:32,170 up in the air and you have to recreate a new one. 250 00:12:33,130 --> 00:12:36,610 This was all forward-looking. It was about accelerating 251 00:12:36,610 --> 00:12:39,410 revenue. It was about increasing margin 252 00:12:39,410 --> 00:12:41,730 increase. Using cash flow, it was all 253 00:12:41,730 --> 00:12:46,050 about growth. And you can really contrast that 254 00:12:46,050 --> 00:12:49,170 with the very difficult situation of the legacy media 255 00:12:49,170 --> 00:12:52,850 companies made worse by the strike, as you say, he points 256 00:12:52,850 --> 00:12:55,330 out something that's been a struggle for Netflix's 257 00:12:55,330 --> 00:12:59,250 competitors, Disney having the legacy media business being a 258 00:12:59,250 --> 00:13:03,210 huge problem for the company, to the point where Disney's Bob 259 00:13:03,250 --> 00:13:06,450 Iger says that he's considering selling off that portion of the 260 00:13:06,450 --> 00:13:08,660 business. Netflix doesn't have to worry 261 00:13:08,660 --> 00:13:10,700 about that. Netflix is just worrying about 262 00:13:10,700 --> 00:13:13,660 future growth, future profits, future margins. 263 00:13:13,740 --> 00:13:17,860 Well, I didn't have any question about the Netflix model and 264 00:13:18,980 --> 00:13:21,780 obviously as you know on this show I pointed out the, the 265 00:13:21,780 --> 00:13:26,060 problems on the legacy side for a long time even as those stocks 266 00:13:26,060 --> 00:13:29,660 were we're doing much better I think the. 267 00:13:31,290 --> 00:13:36,570 View here on Netflix was that they had let a problem grow well 268 00:13:36,570 --> 00:13:40,290 beyond that they should have with 100 million viewers around 269 00:13:40,290 --> 00:13:45,050 the globe taking the product for free and they finally decided to 270 00:13:45,050 --> 00:13:49,890 crack down and I think the the headline coming out of that is 271 00:13:49,890 --> 00:13:53,100 the crackdown. A lot less noise to it than many 272 00:13:53,100 --> 00:13:55,660 people expected, meaning it's implemented. 273 00:13:55,660 --> 00:13:57,620 There isn't a huge amount of pushback. 274 00:13:57,820 --> 00:14:01,900 They obviously got a lot more Subs out of that than people 275 00:14:01,900 --> 00:14:06,870 thought they would at first. And with that, to Joe's point, 276 00:14:06,870 --> 00:14:10,630 hey, is this A1 not time phenomena or is this something 277 00:14:10,630 --> 00:14:13,270 that's recurring? What you got to remember about 278 00:14:13,270 --> 00:14:16,070 streaming services is that they all have a lot of churn. 279 00:14:16,070 --> 00:14:20,590 Netflix a lot less churn every month and most, but still on an 280 00:14:20,590 --> 00:14:24,990 annual basis close to 25% of subscribers come off. 281 00:14:25,630 --> 00:14:27,830 But they do come back when they want to watch something. 282 00:14:28,190 --> 00:14:34,030 And now when they come back, that lowcost ad free tier at 999 283 00:14:34,030 --> 00:14:37,200 isn't going to be there for him. And so the thinking is that 284 00:14:37,200 --> 00:14:38,920 they're going to come into the ad tier. 285 00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:42,600 And the ad tier, because of the additional ad revenue that comes 286 00:14:42,600 --> 00:14:45,520 with it, has a lot more revenue behind it. 287 00:14:45,960 --> 00:14:48,840 And so there's something going here that looks like they can 288 00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:51,760 really grow revenue substantially and that's 289 00:14:51,760 --> 00:14:54,400 something that the other guys can't easily point to. 290 00:14:54,520 --> 00:14:56,760 That's a great insight there and something that I didn't put 291 00:14:56,760 --> 00:14:58,800 together myself. Subscription companies like 292 00:14:58,800 --> 00:15:01,640 Netflix have constant churn. Churn is the amount of people 293 00:15:01,640 --> 00:15:04,480 that leave every single month or every single year. 294 00:15:04,860 --> 00:15:08,580 So they're always losing customers every single day, but 295 00:15:08,580 --> 00:15:11,060 they're also always gaining customers every single day. 296 00:15:11,260 --> 00:15:14,860 The net new subscribers is simply that loss and that gain 297 00:15:14,860 --> 00:15:17,420 netted out. Hopefully they gain more than 298 00:15:17,420 --> 00:15:21,700 they lose, but as people churn and they turn away from that $10 299 00:15:21,700 --> 00:15:26,020 per month non ad version of Netflix, if they ever come back, 300 00:15:26,060 --> 00:15:30,250 that plan no longer exists. For new signups, they have to go 301 00:15:30,250 --> 00:15:33,570 with the ad tear version at $7.00 a month that has an 302 00:15:33,610 --> 00:15:36,650 average monthly revenue of 15 with the ads. 303 00:15:36,970 --> 00:15:40,050 So Netflix knows that they can make more money this way and 304 00:15:40,050 --> 00:15:43,090 they're using the churn cycle to their advantage. 305 00:15:43,290 --> 00:15:45,610 It's almost like a sneaky way of doing a price hike. 306 00:15:45,610 --> 00:15:48,490 They're basically hiking the price but only for new 307 00:15:48,490 --> 00:15:50,530 customers. So I think Netflix will be able 308 00:15:50,530 --> 00:15:52,210 to reaccelerate some revenue growth. 309 00:15:52,210 --> 00:15:54,250 I think that they have immense operating leverage. 310 00:15:54,410 --> 00:15:56,170 I still remain very bullish on this company. 311 00:15:56,170 --> 00:15:57,530 Now let's go ahead and move on to Tesla. 312 00:15:57,570 --> 00:15:59,650 We also had their earnings report this week. 313 00:15:59,730 --> 00:16:03,850 The stock has, likewise with Netflix given up some gains 314 00:16:03,850 --> 00:16:06,290 after earnings. So investors weren't they 315 00:16:06,290 --> 00:16:09,730 weren't fully satisfied with it. Although Tesla's another company 316 00:16:09,730 --> 00:16:12,490 that's up huge this year, so giving up a little bit of gains 317 00:16:12,690 --> 00:16:15,330 is not a huge concern for Tesla investors right now. 318 00:16:15,730 --> 00:16:19,770 But we have Dan Ives reaction to the earnings report 3. 50 so you 319 00:16:19,770 --> 00:16:22,250 actually raise. Even though the stock is down 320 00:16:22,250 --> 00:16:23,730 and the market's worried about more price. 321 00:16:23,770 --> 00:16:26,810 Cuts Why I think investors aren't seen far should be trees 322 00:16:26,930 --> 00:16:29,570 right off the bat. Dan Ives actually raises his 323 00:16:29,570 --> 00:16:34,090 price target for Tesla after the company reports earnings and the 324 00:16:34,090 --> 00:16:36,530 shares drop in value. This is something that I like to 325 00:16:36,530 --> 00:16:39,130 see from an analyst, because it means that they're actually 326 00:16:39,130 --> 00:16:41,770 sticking to their guns. They're not simply following 327 00:16:41,770 --> 00:16:44,170 momentum. They're not simply following the 328 00:16:44,170 --> 00:16:47,490 current price of the company. He's raising his price target 329 00:16:47,770 --> 00:16:49,730 even though the price of Tesla's going down. 330 00:16:49,930 --> 00:16:52,370 Because often what's happening here, we're seeing a 331 00:16:52,370 --> 00:16:54,930 stabilization from margin perspective better than 332 00:16:54,930 --> 00:16:56,810 expecting in terms of auto gross margins. 333 00:16:57,050 --> 00:16:59,650 Now I'm going to pause it right there, he says that we're seeing 334 00:16:59,650 --> 00:17:03,090 a stabilization in the gross margins of auto. 335 00:17:03,090 --> 00:17:06,089 This is always my big concern for Tesla, the margins of the 336 00:17:06,089 --> 00:17:08,450 company. Auto companies do not have great 337 00:17:08,450 --> 00:17:11,970 margins and if Tesla's like an auto company, we should see the 338 00:17:11,970 --> 00:17:15,700 margins decline overtime. Now we are seeing that over the 339 00:17:15,700 --> 00:17:19,900 past year it's declined from 25% down to 18%. 340 00:17:20,140 --> 00:17:23,900 So margins are declining as they have to lower prices to deal 341 00:17:23,900 --> 00:17:26,859 with the interest rates going up and further competition. 342 00:17:27,180 --> 00:17:30,920 But he notes that the decline is starting to stabilize, only 343 00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:35,360 moving from 19% to 18%. So going down 1% quarter over 344 00:17:35,360 --> 00:17:38,440 quarter is not quite as bad. It's not two or three percent 345 00:17:38,440 --> 00:17:41,000 drops every quarter, but we also have the operating margins of 346 00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:45,920 Tesla coming in at 9.6%, dropping from 11.4 last quarter 347 00:17:46,160 --> 00:17:50,240 and all the way down from 17.2 and Q3 of 2022. 348 00:17:50,770 --> 00:17:53,690 So it's a pretty sizable drop in operating margins year over 349 00:17:53,690 --> 00:17:56,370 year. Now to the Tesla bear, these 350 00:17:56,370 --> 00:17:59,450 drop in margins are an indication that Tesla is 351 00:17:59,450 --> 00:18:03,250 overhyped, that it's really a car company subject to all the 352 00:18:03,250 --> 00:18:06,890 market forces, all the extrinsic factors that normal car 353 00:18:06,890 --> 00:18:09,410 companies are. This is further confirmation to 354 00:18:09,410 --> 00:18:12,290 the Tesla bear that their thesis is playing out. 355 00:18:12,530 --> 00:18:15,970 Tesla cannot remain with its pricing power while it has these 356 00:18:15,970 --> 00:18:20,690 competitive and economic forces. To the Tesla bull, this is 357 00:18:20,690 --> 00:18:24,050 simply margin stabilizing. The forward outlook looks really 358 00:18:24,050 --> 00:18:26,410 good and this is also the troth margins. 359 00:18:26,570 --> 00:18:29,250 Margins from here are going to continue going up in the back 360 00:18:29,250 --> 00:18:31,050 half of the year. So this is one of those 361 00:18:31,050 --> 00:18:35,010 situations where whether you're a Tesla bull or a Tesla bear, 362 00:18:35,250 --> 00:18:37,570 you can get from this report what you want. 363 00:18:37,810 --> 00:18:40,810 You can look at the good or look at the bad and form a logical 364 00:18:40,810 --> 00:18:42,730 conclusion. Either way, Dan Ives is 365 00:18:42,730 --> 00:18:45,570 obviously still bullish. We're seeing a stabilization 366 00:18:45,570 --> 00:18:48,010 from margin perspective better than expecting terms to auto 367 00:18:48,010 --> 00:18:50,860 gross margins. You look at units right now, 368 00:18:50,860 --> 00:18:53,540 they aren't introjectory toward 2,000,000 and then this is the 369 00:18:53,540 --> 00:18:57,460 drum roll the Super Bowl to now what I believe is monetization 370 00:18:57,460 --> 00:19:00,380 of supercharger battery. And I think last night the 371 00:19:00,380 --> 00:19:03,500 biggest thing from the conference call, FSD talking to 372 00:19:03,500 --> 00:19:07,340 another OEM because this from an A I perspective is ultimately 373 00:19:07,340 --> 00:19:11,530 how I see Tesla getting to a trillion and 1/2. 2 Trillions So 374 00:19:11,530 --> 00:19:13,490 there he goes, outlining the bull case. 375 00:19:13,490 --> 00:19:16,210 This is troth margins. You have full self driving which 376 00:19:16,210 --> 00:19:18,530 is going to be the big gainer for Tesla. 377 00:19:18,570 --> 00:19:20,770 What's going to turn this company into a multi trillion 378 00:19:20,770 --> 00:19:22,810 dollar stock? Now one thing that stuck out to 379 00:19:22,810 --> 00:19:25,450 me that Elon Musk specifically said on the earnings call of 380 00:19:25,450 --> 00:19:27,690 this latest Tesla quarter is something. 381 00:19:27,690 --> 00:19:29,650 I just can't let him off the hook for it. 382 00:19:29,650 --> 00:19:32,410 I have to call this out on the earnings call. 383 00:19:32,770 --> 00:19:37,250 He says that autonomy will make all of these numbers look silly. 384 00:19:37,660 --> 00:19:39,660 I recommend looking at ARC Invest. 385 00:19:39,660 --> 00:19:41,740 I think their analysis is very good. 386 00:19:42,020 --> 00:19:45,180 It's the best. And generally Fin Twit or the 387 00:19:45,180 --> 00:19:48,820 finance smart finance people on Twitter follow their accounts. 388 00:19:49,180 --> 00:19:51,100 They're great. So that's in my opinion where 389 00:19:51,100 --> 00:19:55,620 you'll get the best info. He directly mentions ARC invests 390 00:19:55,620 --> 00:19:59,580 research as being the place to get the best info on Tesla. 391 00:19:59,740 --> 00:20:02,220 Arc Invest now is the best place to get our research. 392 00:20:02,480 --> 00:20:05,360 ARC Innovation ETF has been a disaster. 393 00:20:05,360 --> 00:20:09,000 It's had incredibly high levels of volatility with incredibly 394 00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:12,560 poor risk adjusted returns by almost any measurement. 395 00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:16,720 The returns have been haphazard unpredictable over the past five 396 00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:20,720 years. It's returned 7.65% in a five 397 00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:25,440 year period where the S&P 500 has done 61% with dramatically 398 00:20:25,440 --> 00:20:28,000 less volatility. And he's pointing to ARC Invest 399 00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:30,640 is where you get the most credible research on Tesla. 400 00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:33,160 So maybe in the future autonomous vehicles will make 401 00:20:33,160 --> 00:20:36,560 all of these numbers look silly, but I can't predict that, and 402 00:20:36,560 --> 00:20:39,760 neither can ARC Invest. They've shown for a long period 403 00:20:39,760 --> 00:20:42,840 of time that their predictions are akin to throwing darts at a 404 00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:44,800 board. Now, of course, as it's Friday, 405 00:20:44,800 --> 00:20:47,960 we have to turn to TikTok to get the best financial advice. 406 00:20:48,370 --> 00:20:50,810 This is where you get it. This corner of the Internet is 407 00:20:50,810 --> 00:20:54,170 full of different ways to generate massive amounts of 408 00:20:54,170 --> 00:20:57,170 wealth, and this woman has a way for us to generate a lot of 409 00:20:57,170 --> 00:20:59,410 wealth very quickly. Let's go ahead and listen to her 410 00:20:59,410 --> 00:21:00,930 plan. I show you how I turned my 411 00:21:00,930 --> 00:21:04,690 initial $300.00 investment into well over 6 figures in a span of 412 00:21:04,690 --> 00:21:08,250 two years by simply doing compound trading. 413 00:21:08,410 --> 00:21:10,930 Now this is embarrassing for me because I've never heard of 414 00:21:10,930 --> 00:21:13,970 compound trading before. I've never heard that term. 415 00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:17,920 I have heard of compounding machines, companies that build 416 00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:21,040 their earnings and their cash flows over long periods of time 417 00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:24,280 that have resilient business models, but they certainly don't 418 00:21:24,280 --> 00:21:26,320 give the returns that she's talking about here. 419 00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:31,160 You're not going to turn $600 into 100,000 in a couple years 420 00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:34,090 buying compounding companies. So let's go ahead and see 421 00:21:34,090 --> 00:21:35,730 specifically what she's talking about. 422 00:21:35,770 --> 00:21:37,610 So if you. Started with $300.00 and you 423 00:21:37,610 --> 00:21:40,650 grew it 2% every single day for 260 days. 424 00:21:40,730 --> 00:21:43,970 You're going to end up with over $11,000 in your trading account. 425 00:21:44,130 --> 00:21:46,370 Let me go ahead and just pause it right there and rewind just a 426 00:21:46,370 --> 00:21:48,970 bit. She just outlined the plan right 427 00:21:48,970 --> 00:21:50,930 there and I'm surprised I didn't think of this. 428 00:21:50,930 --> 00:21:54,010 I feel like a fool for missing out on this very simple, 429 00:21:54,250 --> 00:21:58,730 reasonable, achievable plan. All I had to do all this time 430 00:21:58,930 --> 00:22:04,130 was simply grow my account by 2% every single day for 260 trading 431 00:22:04,130 --> 00:22:05,570 days. That's it. 432 00:22:05,850 --> 00:22:07,770 How did I not realize this a long time ago? 433 00:22:07,770 --> 00:22:10,290 Why am I worrying about investments that grow earnings 434 00:22:10,290 --> 00:22:14,570 and intrinsic value when all I had to do is make 2% gains every 435 00:22:14,570 --> 00:22:17,530 single day for 260 consecutive trading days? 436 00:22:17,850 --> 00:22:19,690 That seems like a much easier path. 437 00:22:19,770 --> 00:22:22,050 Now you might be saying, Joseph, that's crazy. 438 00:22:22,090 --> 00:22:25,000 That's statistically impossible to accomplish, but that's where 439 00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:27,840 you'd be wrong. She explains how to get these 2% 440 00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:30,600 daily gains. And I know you're like, OK, but 441 00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:33,120 that's not six figures. Let's take that initial 442 00:22:33,120 --> 00:22:36,480 investment plus the gains that we made in year one and reinvest 443 00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:39,160 it for a second year. But we took that 11,000, almost 444 00:22:39,160 --> 00:22:42,120 12,000, and we throw it back in to compound it again for a 445 00:22:42,120 --> 00:22:44,040 second year. We don't take out any of our 446 00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:46,680 profits and we keep trading for 2% every single day. 447 00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:49,840 The second year we end up with over 6 figures. 448 00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:53,360 That's over 400 K compounded into your trading account. 449 00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:55,760 It seems like she understands the principle of compounding 450 00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:57,760 really well. She's outlining it right here. 451 00:22:57,840 --> 00:23:01,000 What we're lied on so far is details of how to accomplish 452 00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:03,160 that 2% daily compounding you're. 453 00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:05,880 Probably sitting there like OK that's cool, but I have no idea 454 00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:08,680 how to trade like 0 knowledge ground level beginner. 455 00:23:08,760 --> 00:23:11,120 There are softwares out there that you can leverage to 456 00:23:11,120 --> 00:23:14,200 actually give you those type of results being a complete 457 00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:16,360 beginner having zero knowledge in the financial markets. 458 00:23:16,560 --> 00:23:19,520 One of them is called Menara and I talk about it all the time on 459 00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:21,960 my platform. OK, so you have to sign up for 460 00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:25,320 this platform that will enable you with 0 knowledge to get 461 00:23:25,320 --> 00:23:28,360 these 2% daily gains. Now she also goes on to outline 462 00:23:28,360 --> 00:23:30,640 that you need certain characteristics to accomplish 463 00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:33,720 this 2% gain per day. You need to have a lot of grit, 464 00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:35,920 a lot of stick to itiveness. You need to have a very 465 00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:38,240 motivated personality. But if you think that you're 466 00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:40,600 disciplined enough and you're willing to stick to a trading 467 00:23:40,600 --> 00:23:42,920 plan that you build for yourself, or you want access to 468 00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:45,160 my Tuesday trading call where we take trades together, mark up 469 00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:47,440 the charts together, I show you how to utilize the softwares, 470 00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:50,000 shoot me a message on Instagram, and drop your questions in the 471 00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:52,040 comments. Now, I'm personally very excited 472 00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:55,560 to start this daily, compounding this trade, compounding that 473 00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:59,280 she's talking about and starting with $500,000, that gives me a 474 00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:01,640 little bit of a head start. For example, if I compound my 475 00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:06,200 money one year, 2% every day for 260 days, that leaves me with 476 00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:10,800 $86 million after a single year. That's pretty exciting. 477 00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:12,960 That's probably enough that I can finally retire on that 478 00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:15,240 money. And if I implement this strategy 479 00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:19,440 with my 86 million for another single year, just another 260 480 00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:24,030 days, I'll have $14 billion. Fourteen billion. 481 00:24:24,030 --> 00:24:25,910 I'll be one of the richest people in the world. 482 00:24:25,950 --> 00:24:29,550 And if I do it for a third year, only after three years, I'll 483 00:24:29,550 --> 00:24:33,830 have $2.5 trillion. I can get to the point with this 484 00:24:33,830 --> 00:24:36,750 daily compounding strategy of being able to pay off the 485 00:24:36,750 --> 00:24:39,030 national debt. So I'm very excited about this. 486 00:24:39,030 --> 00:24:41,630 If I implement this strategy for three or four years with these 487 00:24:41,630 --> 00:24:44,830 returns, I can start to pay off the US national debt. 488 00:24:44,870 --> 00:24:46,870 That's all for this episode. I'll see you in the next one. 489 00:24:47,100 --> 00:24:51,820 I can't believe it.