1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:01,880 Welcome back everyone. Today on the Joseph Carlson 2 00:00:01,880 --> 00:00:03,920 Show. While the market is going up in 3 00:00:03,920 --> 00:00:06,600 2025, we have the S&P 500 doing well. 4 00:00:06,600 --> 00:00:10,320 We have the QQQ doing well. We have even the Mag 7 doing 5 00:00:10,360 --> 00:00:14,760 really well, except for one, Amazon stands alone as a company 6 00:00:14,760 --> 00:00:16,400 that's not performing well this year. 7 00:00:16,640 --> 00:00:20,080 In fact, as MarketWatch points out, Amazon is the worst 8 00:00:20,080 --> 00:00:23,840 performing of the big tech Mag Seven companies, and it risks 9 00:00:23,840 --> 00:00:27,840 falling behind in the AI race. So what's going on with Amazon? 10 00:00:27,960 --> 00:00:30,720 This is a company that, after all, is one of my largest 11 00:00:30,720 --> 00:00:34,520 positions. I own over 600 shares of Amazon, 12 00:00:34,880 --> 00:00:39,280 roughly $133,000 of the stock. That's almost as much value as I 13 00:00:39,280 --> 00:00:41,920 own in Netflix. So Amazon has moved up to a 14 00:00:41,920 --> 00:00:44,360 massive position in My Portfolio, one of the top 15 00:00:44,360 --> 00:00:46,280 holdings. We have articles here that is 16 00:00:46,280 --> 00:00:49,280 falling behind an AI. Well, I don't believe that this 17 00:00:49,280 --> 00:00:52,640 is going to last long. And like I've said before, we 18 00:00:52,640 --> 00:00:55,280 have stocks that are doing really well, like Google, that 19 00:00:55,280 --> 00:00:57,360 have seen their day over the past four months. 20 00:00:57,360 --> 00:00:59,040 That stock is doing incredibly well. 21 00:00:59,520 --> 00:01:00,880 Now. Google has moved up to a share 22 00:01:00,880 --> 00:01:03,200 price much more in line with its future potential. 23 00:01:03,600 --> 00:01:07,280 And we have Amazon sitting here still at $220 per share. 24 00:01:07,640 --> 00:01:10,280 Where does that leave us? Well, I believe over the next 25 00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:14,640 five years, Amazon has immense potential as a stock, potential 26 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:16,600 to double. In fact, I believe that there's 27 00:01:16,600 --> 00:01:20,640 five basic reasons that Amazon stock is going to go up and I'm 28 00:01:20,640 --> 00:01:24,040 going to outline my thesis these five different reasons of why 29 00:01:24,040 --> 00:01:26,440 this may be one of the best buys today. 30 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:30,040 Now we also have news of the evolving drama of Jimmy Kimmel, 31 00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:33,560 ABC and censorship. Over the past couple of days. 32 00:01:33,560 --> 00:01:36,520 Disney has decided to bring Jimmy Kimmel back on. 33 00:01:36,840 --> 00:01:39,360 The show aired last night in what was one of the most 34 00:01:39,360 --> 00:01:42,680 anticipated Jimmy Kimmel shows possibly ever. 35 00:01:43,080 --> 00:01:45,960 He was just fired and brought back on only a few days later. 36 00:01:46,240 --> 00:01:48,480 So a lot of people are interested in seeing what he had 37 00:01:48,480 --> 00:01:49,800 to say. What is he going to do in his 38 00:01:49,800 --> 00:01:51,480 monologue? How is he going to address this 39 00:01:51,480 --> 00:01:53,600 controversy? How is he going to address his 40 00:01:53,600 --> 00:01:55,560 previous comments? Well, we're going to be taking a 41 00:01:55,560 --> 00:01:57,320 look at it. I'll be showing some clips from 42 00:01:57,320 --> 00:01:59,200 the monologue. We'll be looking at how he's 43 00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:01,520 addressing it and how this effects Disney. 44 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:04,360 We also have news on the topic of censorship that YouTube has 45 00:02:04,560 --> 00:02:06,960 previously banned millions of channels because of COVID 46 00:02:06,960 --> 00:02:09,280 misinformation. They are reversing a lot of that 47 00:02:09,280 --> 00:02:11,920 policy and allowing those channels to come back on. 48 00:02:12,240 --> 00:02:15,040 We'll be discussing them and we have Mark Mahaney, an analyst 49 00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:17,920 that I believe is one of the best, explaining why he believes 50 00:02:17,920 --> 00:02:21,600 that Netflix, yes, Netflix is one of the best companies in the 51 00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:25,120 market today and why he believes it's going to go up 20% from 52 00:02:25,120 --> 00:02:27,320 where it sits today. So we'll be looking at that as 53 00:02:27,320 --> 00:02:28,840 well. So, as always, we have a ton to 54 00:02:28,840 --> 00:02:31,400 get to in this episode and we kick things off with Amazon. 55 00:02:31,960 --> 00:02:35,160 As we see here from MarketWatch, they point out that Amazon is 56 00:02:35,160 --> 00:02:38,400 the worst performing stock in the mag seven-year to date. 57 00:02:38,400 --> 00:02:41,200 The Magnificent 7 has been the dominant force in the market 58 00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:44,240 this year, but at least one of its members didn't get the memo. 59 00:02:44,600 --> 00:02:48,360 On Tuesday, Amazon became the worst performing Magnificent 7 60 00:02:48,360 --> 00:02:50,960 stock year to date. The position was previously 61 00:02:50,960 --> 00:02:54,680 occupied by Apple, but a surge of increased investor confidence 62 00:02:54,680 --> 00:02:57,880 on the back of robust iPhone sales sent that stock into the 63 00:02:57,880 --> 00:03:01,880 positive territory for the year yesterday, and it crossed a head 64 00:03:01,960 --> 00:03:05,920 of Amazon on Tuesday. So, so far, Apple's kind of been 65 00:03:05,920 --> 00:03:08,400 in that territory of not performing too well, and it 66 00:03:08,400 --> 00:03:11,000 makes sense why Apple wasn't growing revenue and the 67 00:03:11,000 --> 00:03:14,480 valuation was very high. But now even Apple's performing 68 00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:16,880 better than Amazon. Shares of Amazon have returned 69 00:03:16,880 --> 00:03:21,080 just .6% so far this year, largely due to investor concerns 70 00:03:21,080 --> 00:03:24,280 about the company's Amazon Web Services and the Business of 71 00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:25,840 Artificial Intelligence strategy. 72 00:03:26,000 --> 00:03:30,280 In July, Amazon's quarterly earnings report showed 17.5% 73 00:03:30,280 --> 00:03:32,840 growth rate for AWS. It only matched investors 74 00:03:32,840 --> 00:03:34,560 expectations instead of beating them. 75 00:03:34,880 --> 00:03:39,800 In contrast, Microsoft Corp saw its cloud business growth 39% 76 00:03:40,160 --> 00:03:43,600 and Google saw its cloud business growth 32% in the 77 00:03:43,600 --> 00:03:45,840 quarter. Both of those rates exceeded 78 00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:49,880 analyst expectations, so even though Amazon came in mostly in 79 00:03:49,880 --> 00:03:53,320 line, the other clouds grew so quickly exceeding their 80 00:03:53,320 --> 00:03:56,640 expectations that by contrast, it made Amazon look like a 81 00:03:56,640 --> 00:03:58,560 loser. And then to add insult to 82 00:03:58,560 --> 00:04:02,320 injury, we had the earnings call where we had a chance for Andy 83 00:04:02,320 --> 00:04:06,280 Jassi to address the issue. Andy Jassi on the call failed to 84 00:04:06,280 --> 00:04:10,280 provide specific AWS guidance on the most recent earnings call, 85 00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:13,560 leaving investors uncertain about exactly what was going on 86 00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:16,279 with the business. And I'll add that Andy Jassi, 87 00:04:16,279 --> 00:04:19,320 when asked about why AWS is performing worse than 88 00:04:19,320 --> 00:04:22,760 competitors, he said that this is just a moment in time. 89 00:04:23,200 --> 00:04:25,840 That was the exact phrase that it's only a moment in time. 90 00:04:26,360 --> 00:04:30,320 And then he went on for a multi minute long explanation, 3 or 4 91 00:04:30,320 --> 00:04:33,400 minutes explaining all the things that AWS can do, 92 00:04:33,760 --> 00:04:37,520 basically explaining how good of software it is, how powerful AWS 93 00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:39,720 is, all the different tool kits that it has. 94 00:04:40,040 --> 00:04:43,720 But that did not address investors concerns of why Google 95 00:04:43,720 --> 00:04:47,920 Cloud and why Microsoft Azure are growing so much faster. 96 00:04:47,920 --> 00:04:51,360 So Andy Jassi did a poor job of addressing investors concerns. 97 00:04:51,440 --> 00:04:54,360 So where does that leave us now? Well, if we look at Amazon and 98 00:04:54,360 --> 00:04:56,960 we can take a look at the DIP Finder here on Qualtrim, we can 99 00:04:56,960 --> 00:04:59,520 take a look at the Max seven I've entered these stocks in. 100 00:04:59,920 --> 00:05:02,600 And if we just look left to right, we can see the worst 101 00:05:02,600 --> 00:05:04,600 performing to the best performing this year. 102 00:05:04,960 --> 00:05:08,960 Amazon is just teetering from the red to the green right now. 103 00:05:08,960 --> 00:05:12,480 It's barely up .29% on a year to date basis. 104 00:05:12,880 --> 00:05:17,520 Then we have Apple up 3%, Tesla up 15, Microsoft is just 105 00:05:17,520 --> 00:05:23,160 crushing it at 21%, Meta at 26, NVIDIA at 27 and then we have 106 00:05:23,160 --> 00:05:27,440 right here the king. Google at 30% returns this year 107 00:05:27,440 --> 00:05:30,680 and it's still headed upwards. So Google has been crushing it 108 00:05:30,920 --> 00:05:32,680 along with many of these other companies. 109 00:05:32,960 --> 00:05:36,160 Amazon is being left behind and this is part of the reason why 110 00:05:36,160 --> 00:05:38,720 investors are starting to turn their attention to Amazon. 111 00:05:38,720 --> 00:05:40,640 Many investors are concluding that with all these other 112 00:05:40,640 --> 00:05:44,000 companies doing so well and Amazon being left behind, maybe 113 00:05:44,000 --> 00:05:46,720 now it's an opportunity. And I believe that's just the 114 00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:48,040 case. So let's go ahead and take a 115 00:05:48,040 --> 00:05:51,160 look at Amazon and the five reasons I believe this stock is 116 00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:53,880 well prepared for the future and it's certainly a buy today. 117 00:05:54,440 --> 00:05:57,640 First of all, I just want to dress the whole issue of Andy 118 00:05:57,640 --> 00:06:01,280 Jassy's comments and him not giving a good explanation and 119 00:06:01,280 --> 00:06:03,400 the earnings call being bad for Amazon stock. 120 00:06:03,440 --> 00:06:07,000 There's many cases that we've had before where CEO gets on an 121 00:06:07,000 --> 00:06:09,000 earnings call and says the wrong thing. 122 00:06:09,400 --> 00:06:11,360 CE OS are human. They're they're just trying to 123 00:06:11,360 --> 00:06:13,480 answer questions. They're not going to put 124 00:06:13,480 --> 00:06:17,920 everything perfectly every time. Andy Jassy's not perfect and 125 00:06:17,920 --> 00:06:19,960 we've seen examples of this type of thing before. 126 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:24,240 The ASMLCEO went on the earnings call and he said because of 127 00:06:24,240 --> 00:06:27,040 uncertainty with all the tariff stuff, we don't know if we're 128 00:06:27,040 --> 00:06:29,600 going to grow next year. Because if things go into the 129 00:06:29,600 --> 00:06:33,040 worst case scenarios, if we have lots of tariff challenges and 130 00:06:33,040 --> 00:06:35,680 trade restrictions, maybe that affects our company. 131 00:06:36,080 --> 00:06:40,440 Just by saying that the stock dropped 10%, this is exactly 132 00:06:40,440 --> 00:06:43,520 when the CEO made that comment right there. 133 00:06:43,720 --> 00:06:47,000 So the stock dropped a huge amount in the following days and 134 00:06:47,000 --> 00:06:49,760 then continued to go down after those remarks. 135 00:06:50,040 --> 00:06:52,880 But look at the stock today without even a new earnings 136 00:06:52,880 --> 00:06:55,040 report. ASML has not only gone back up 137 00:06:55,040 --> 00:06:58,320 to before the CE OS comments, but now it's at all time highs 138 00:06:58,560 --> 00:07:01,520 nearing $1000 per share. And the truth is, this type of 139 00:07:01,520 --> 00:07:04,840 stuff happens all the time. Not every CEO is going to pump 140 00:07:04,840 --> 00:07:07,360 the stock on the earnings call, but that doesn't mean that it's 141 00:07:07,360 --> 00:07:10,080 not a good deal. If we look at Amazon, we can 142 00:07:10,080 --> 00:07:12,360 look at this company. I think in similar fashion, when 143 00:07:12,360 --> 00:07:15,400 I look at the response that Andy Jassy gave about the slower 144 00:07:15,400 --> 00:07:19,320 growth of AWS compared to its pairs, I thought his response 145 00:07:19,320 --> 00:07:21,760 was not good. In fact, I thought I could give 146 00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:24,480 a better response or at least explain the situation more. 147 00:07:24,480 --> 00:07:27,480 First of all, when we look at AWS, keep in mind that this is a 148 00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:29,680 business line that we're supposed to be concerned about. 149 00:07:30,160 --> 00:07:33,080 Now, does this look like the chart of a business we should be 150 00:07:33,080 --> 00:07:38,080 concerned about? Last quarter growing 17.7% with 151 00:07:38,080 --> 00:07:42,160 a trailing 12 months revenue of $116 billion? 152 00:07:42,680 --> 00:07:47,240 Not only is AWS bigger than any other cloud, it's almost as big 153 00:07:47,240 --> 00:07:50,680 as Azure and Google Cloud combined, but it's also growing 154 00:07:50,680 --> 00:07:53,640 near 20%. Now it is true that Amazon Web 155 00:07:53,640 --> 00:07:57,200 Services didn't grow as fast as Azure or Google Cloud, but there 156 00:07:57,200 --> 00:08:00,080 are some key differences. First of all, Google Cloud is a 157 00:08:00,080 --> 00:08:04,040 fraction of the size of AWS, so you can grow a bit a bit faster 158 00:08:04,040 --> 00:08:07,280 when you're a lot smaller. That's a a very known thing when 159 00:08:07,280 --> 00:08:10,080 you talk about Microsoft Azure. That one's a bit more 160 00:08:10,080 --> 00:08:12,960 complicated to address because it did grow faster in total 161 00:08:12,960 --> 00:08:16,960 dollars than AWS even at a smaller size, which shouldn't be 162 00:08:16,960 --> 00:08:18,920 the case. And this is where Andy Jassi had 163 00:08:18,920 --> 00:08:21,640 the opportunity to highlight some unique aspects of AWS and 164 00:08:21,720 --> 00:08:25,360 it's number one of why I'm bullish on Amazon over the next 165 00:08:25,360 --> 00:08:27,600 five years. I believe that Amazon is 166 00:08:27,600 --> 00:08:31,080 actually the most well diversified and set up cloud in 167 00:08:31,080 --> 00:08:34,159 every single hyper scaler in every cloud company. 168 00:08:34,480 --> 00:08:37,080 And the reason why is because of the diversification of their 169 00:08:37,080 --> 00:08:40,440 customer base. The big reason that Azure grew 170 00:08:40,440 --> 00:08:43,840 at that astounding rate that it did was because of huge 171 00:08:43,840 --> 00:08:46,880 customers migrating from on premise into the cloud. 172 00:08:46,880 --> 00:08:49,840 Microsoft does a lot of business with Fortune 500 companies. 173 00:08:50,080 --> 00:08:52,000 When they convinced those businesses to move their 174 00:08:52,000 --> 00:08:55,360 workloads from on premise to the cloud, you get massive 175 00:08:55,440 --> 00:08:58,480 unexpected growth. So while that growth can be 176 00:08:58,480 --> 00:09:02,600 exciting in the short term, it's lumpier, it's less consistent, 177 00:09:02,840 --> 00:09:05,360 and it's not as much of an ongoing compounding growth over 178 00:09:05,360 --> 00:09:08,520 time. What Amazon has, it's unique is 179 00:09:08,520 --> 00:09:12,840 over 4 million customers on AWS. They have vastly more. 180 00:09:12,880 --> 00:09:15,720 In fact, it's likely four times as much as Microsoft. 181 00:09:16,240 --> 00:09:18,280 When you look at that compared to even Google Cloud. 182 00:09:18,320 --> 00:09:21,280 Most third party estimates are that Google Cloud have around 183 00:09:21,280 --> 00:09:24,480 1,000,000. So Amazon's size in customer 184 00:09:24,480 --> 00:09:27,240 base is immense. And although that means that 185 00:09:27,240 --> 00:09:29,400 they won't have any single quarter where they'll see 186 00:09:29,400 --> 00:09:32,640 massive, substantial growth, it does mean that you'll have a 187 00:09:32,640 --> 00:09:36,200 more diversified, more consistent, more compounded 188 00:09:36,200 --> 00:09:38,120 growth over long periods of time. 189 00:09:38,600 --> 00:09:42,000 Andy Jassi had the opportunity to highlight the distinctions 190 00:09:42,000 --> 00:09:44,920 and differences and not only just the growth quarter by 191 00:09:44,920 --> 00:09:49,240 quarter, but the diversification of customer base, the quality of 192 00:09:49,240 --> 00:09:52,640 growth, how much of the market in customers they've captured 193 00:09:52,880 --> 00:09:55,880 and how those customers rely on Amazon because of the advanced 194 00:09:55,880 --> 00:09:57,960 tooling. This is all true. 195 00:09:57,960 --> 00:10:00,720 It's all backed up by third party analysis, but it's 196 00:10:00,720 --> 00:10:02,800 something that Andy Jassi failed to highlight. 197 00:10:02,800 --> 00:10:05,960 But this will likely be a huge catalyst to Amazon stock over 198 00:10:05,960 --> 00:10:08,800 the next five years. We shouldn't be concerned about 199 00:10:08,800 --> 00:10:11,200 Amazon's AWS. That shouldn't be something that 200 00:10:11,200 --> 00:10:15,880 investors are frightened about. It's $120 billion of run rate. 201 00:10:16,120 --> 00:10:19,680 It's massively bigger than Azure and Google Cloud, almost as big 202 00:10:19,680 --> 00:10:21,840 as them. Combined, they have four times 203 00:10:21,840 --> 00:10:24,360 the customers and they have operating margins that 204 00:10:24,360 --> 00:10:27,480 continually go up and the operating margins are already at 205 00:10:27,480 --> 00:10:30,600 33%. So it's massively profitable. 206 00:10:31,040 --> 00:10:33,720 This is not just a business that we should be concerned about, 207 00:10:34,000 --> 00:10:36,080 but it's a business that we should be celebrating and 208 00:10:36,080 --> 00:10:38,640 excited about. Even the AWS customer 209 00:10:38,640 --> 00:10:41,600 commitments, the people contracting to do business in 210 00:10:41,600 --> 00:10:46,680 the future grew by 25%. Amazon has an excellent business 211 00:10:46,680 --> 00:10:50,040 here, likely the highest quality of all the cloud companies. 212 00:10:50,120 --> 00:10:52,840 To add on top of this, and again, this is just point number 213 00:10:52,840 --> 00:10:55,680 one of I'm bullish of this company is not only the customer 214 00:10:55,680 --> 00:10:58,400 diversification, the rapid growth, the huge scale the 215 00:10:58,440 --> 00:11:02,120 Amazon operates at, but we also have reports with semi analysis. 216 00:11:02,120 --> 00:11:03,680 I've highlighted this before in depth. 217 00:11:03,760 --> 00:11:07,760 The Amazon is now going into unique hardware in combination 218 00:11:07,840 --> 00:11:10,520 with their software. So we already have the AWS 219 00:11:10,520 --> 00:11:13,040 software layer with all their toolings that they built out for 220 00:11:13,040 --> 00:11:15,560 the past decade. But now we have hardware. 221 00:11:15,680 --> 00:11:19,280 It's called Tranium, a new chip that's competitive with NVIDIA. 222 00:11:19,600 --> 00:11:21,800 It's not quite as good on all benchmarks. 223 00:11:21,840 --> 00:11:24,800 NVIDIA of course, leads the market, but Tranium is being 224 00:11:24,800 --> 00:11:28,160 built specifically for Anthropic, the AI model that 225 00:11:28,160 --> 00:11:31,920 Amazon owns the majority of. So Amazon is trying to create 226 00:11:31,920 --> 00:11:35,520 this new vertically integrated partnership, very similar to 227 00:11:35,520 --> 00:11:38,280 Chachi BT in Azure or Gemini and Google Cloud. 228 00:11:38,560 --> 00:11:41,680 Amazon's building its own vertically integrated system and 229 00:11:41,680 --> 00:11:44,280 there are massive data warehouses that Amazon has 230 00:11:44,280 --> 00:11:47,680 invested a ton of money in that are coming online very soon. 231 00:11:48,040 --> 00:11:51,280 This should be a massive tailwind for Amazon's AWS. 232 00:11:51,520 --> 00:11:55,520 In fact, in this write up from semi analysis, they argue that 233 00:11:55,520 --> 00:12:00,000 Amazon's AWS service, they argue that Amazon's AWS, it will not 234 00:12:00,000 --> 00:12:02,080 slow down. In fact, not only is it not 235 00:12:02,080 --> 00:12:06,040 going to slow down, it's going to re accelerate every single 236 00:12:06,040 --> 00:12:08,680 quarter. It should re accelerate from 17% 237 00:12:09,120 --> 00:12:12,400 to 19 to 20 and so on. They believe that it will be 238 00:12:12,400 --> 00:12:16,040 above 20% revenue growth even at the massive scale because of 239 00:12:16,040 --> 00:12:18,560 these new data centers and this unique partnership. 240 00:12:18,760 --> 00:12:22,920 If Amazon's AWS continues to compound like it is, if they 241 00:12:22,920 --> 00:12:26,040 keep the margins where they are, this company will not only do 242 00:12:26,040 --> 00:12:28,600 well, but it will grow. The stock price will go up 243 00:12:28,640 --> 00:12:31,840 specifically as a result of AWS reacceleration. 244 00:12:32,240 --> 00:12:34,640 So if that happens, which I believe there is a strong chance 245 00:12:34,640 --> 00:12:37,720 it could happen, I think the stock is going higher than 220. 246 00:12:38,080 --> 00:12:41,920 That's point #1 now we move on to reason #2 the Amazon stock 247 00:12:41,920 --> 00:12:43,480 will double over the next five years. 248 00:12:43,840 --> 00:12:45,800 And this is a point that I've personally done a lot of 249 00:12:45,800 --> 00:12:47,800 research on. I've just done a lot of work on 250 00:12:47,800 --> 00:12:51,160 this and I become increasingly convinced that this is the case. 251 00:12:51,640 --> 00:12:54,600 I believe strongly that out of all the companies out there, 252 00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:58,440 Amazon is uniquely in a position to benefit them most from 253 00:12:58,440 --> 00:13:01,480 robotics and automation more than any other company, 254 00:13:01,720 --> 00:13:04,000 including Google, including Tesla. 255 00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:06,000 Let's go ahead and look at a couple of the reasons why. 256 00:13:06,200 --> 00:13:08,120 This is a write up that I did a couple months ago. 257 00:13:08,120 --> 00:13:11,480 I published it to my my Discord and Patreon and I want to go 258 00:13:11,480 --> 00:13:13,840 over just a couple of the reasons outlined here. 259 00:13:14,200 --> 00:13:17,440 First of all, in order to find a company that can really benefit 260 00:13:17,440 --> 00:13:20,760 from robotics and automation, they need to have the talent to 261 00:13:20,760 --> 00:13:23,240 build robots. They need to have the tech 262 00:13:23,240 --> 00:13:25,320 talent and the skill set to be able to do that. 263 00:13:25,600 --> 00:13:27,960 So you need strong in house tech talent. 264 00:13:28,320 --> 00:13:31,120 Amazon has developed a deep bench of engineers and 265 00:13:31,120 --> 00:13:34,960 scientists, from AWS cloud architects to AI researchers 266 00:13:35,280 --> 00:13:38,080 capable of developing and deploying advanced AI robotic 267 00:13:38,080 --> 00:13:40,760 solution. Few retailers have comparable 268 00:13:40,760 --> 00:13:44,400 tech prowess. So Amazon is uniquely one of the 269 00:13:44,400 --> 00:13:48,240 big companies that has huge tech talent, more so than Walmart, 270 00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:50,880 more so than Costco. You know, they're right up there 271 00:13:50,880 --> 00:13:54,280 with Tesla and Google. But then we also have a company 272 00:13:54,840 --> 00:13:58,360 that has uniquely large and complex operations. 273 00:13:58,720 --> 00:14:01,400 Amazon's business isn't simple online sales. 274 00:14:01,720 --> 00:14:04,440 It's an expansive logistics operation with hundreds of 275 00:14:04,440 --> 00:14:07,560 warehouses, transportation fleets, and real time inventory 276 00:14:07,560 --> 00:14:09,560 systems. This complexity means that 277 00:14:09,560 --> 00:14:13,320 there's many processes that AI can optimize, routing, 278 00:14:13,320 --> 00:14:16,120 packaging, inventory management, et cetera. 279 00:14:16,320 --> 00:14:19,840 The gains from even small efficiency scale across millions 280 00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:22,480 of transactions. Any margin efficiency is 281 00:14:22,480 --> 00:14:24,720 massive, and that's an important point here. 282 00:14:25,040 --> 00:14:27,720 We need to find a company in order to benefit the most from 283 00:14:27,720 --> 00:14:32,280 robotics and AIA company that has high volume, low margins. 284 00:14:32,440 --> 00:14:35,280 Everybody talks about AWS as being the good business. 285 00:14:35,680 --> 00:14:38,680 Then you have Amazon's retail as being the bad business and the 286 00:14:38,680 --> 00:14:42,560 reason why AWS is at very high margins, retail is at very low 287 00:14:42,560 --> 00:14:44,720 margins. If you have operational 288 00:14:44,720 --> 00:14:48,360 efficiency driven by robotics and automation to lift up the 289 00:14:48,360 --> 00:14:52,080 margins of that lower margin business, suddenly Amazon 290 00:14:52,080 --> 00:14:54,560 doesn't have a low quality business paired with a high 291 00:14:54,560 --> 00:14:56,920 quality one. It has 2 high quality 292 00:14:56,920 --> 00:14:59,080 businesses. Another point, and this is what 293 00:14:59,080 --> 00:15:02,080 I highlighted as the most important point, we need a 294 00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:05,000 company that has all these prerequisites, strong tech 295 00:15:05,000 --> 00:15:07,640 talent, large complex operations, but most 296 00:15:07,640 --> 00:15:10,800 importantly, you need robots to be able to replace what humans 297 00:15:10,800 --> 00:15:14,080 are already doing. We need a huge labor intensive 298 00:15:14,080 --> 00:15:17,760 workforce. Amazon employs over 1.5 million 299 00:15:17,760 --> 00:15:21,080 people globally, including roughly 1.2 million in its 300 00:15:21,080 --> 00:15:23,240 fulfilment center warehouses alone. 301 00:15:23,400 --> 00:15:25,600 We already know that Amazon can build cars that drive 302 00:15:25,600 --> 00:15:27,280 themselves. It's called Zoox. 303 00:15:27,600 --> 00:15:29,800 They're literally doing that right now in Vegas. 304 00:15:30,240 --> 00:15:33,680 The Zook's vehicle is driving around with no employee, no one 305 00:15:33,680 --> 00:15:36,320 else in the driver's seat. In fact, it doesn't even have a 306 00:15:36,320 --> 00:15:38,880 driver's seat. So this thing is driving itself. 307 00:15:39,440 --> 00:15:42,600 Well, simple logic dictates that if they can do that in a busy 308 00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:45,160 city of Vegas, they can certainly make vehicles that can 309 00:15:45,160 --> 00:15:49,040 drive around your neighborhood, pull in front of your house, and 310 00:15:49,040 --> 00:15:51,960 eventually have a robot jump out and deliver your package. 311 00:15:52,480 --> 00:15:54,480 It seems a little crazy. I mean, it seems a little 312 00:15:54,480 --> 00:15:57,400 fanciful right now, but we already know that's the way 313 00:15:57,400 --> 00:15:59,960 things are headed. And again, the number of 314 00:15:59,960 --> 00:16:03,560 employees they have doing that are in orders of millions. 315 00:16:03,880 --> 00:16:07,640 They have 700,000 people working as delivery drivers and in their 316 00:16:07,640 --> 00:16:10,440 warehouses. All of these, virtually every 317 00:16:10,440 --> 00:16:12,960 one of them can be automated to some degree. 318 00:16:13,360 --> 00:16:16,040 Now, there's always going to be some humans in the mix, so I 319 00:16:16,040 --> 00:16:19,520 have no illusions that Amazon's going to fire every employee. 320 00:16:19,720 --> 00:16:22,000 But we can certainly have a situation where robots are doing 321 00:16:22,040 --> 00:16:26,640 all this routine, manual and repetitive work while humans use 322 00:16:26,640 --> 00:16:29,960 more of a supervisory role. They fill in where robots may 323 00:16:29,960 --> 00:16:32,440 have got things wrong or where they're stuck, where they're 324 00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:35,080 having errors or glitches. That's going to be the role that 325 00:16:35,080 --> 00:16:37,800 humans play in the future. A lot of employees today are 326 00:16:37,800 --> 00:16:41,480 doing tasks that are repetitive, low judgement tasks, and Amazon 327 00:16:41,480 --> 00:16:45,240 is still paying them 25 dollars, $30.00 an hour, paying for their 328 00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:47,000 college, for their health expenses. 329 00:16:47,320 --> 00:16:50,080 That's a very expensive price to pay for something that 330 00:16:50,080 --> 00:16:53,400 eventually a robot can do on a marginal basis for free, 331 00:16:53,680 --> 00:16:56,360 repetitive over and over again, and work all day. 332 00:16:56,800 --> 00:16:59,200 Not only can they work more hours, but they aren't paid 333 00:16:59,200 --> 00:17:02,040 health insurance. They don't need time off, they 334 00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:06,119 only need routine maintenance. Amazon spent $60 billion last 335 00:17:06,119 --> 00:17:09,079 year, a huge portion of that in fact, the majority of it being 336 00:17:09,079 --> 00:17:11,079 specifically on these routine tasks. 337 00:17:11,480 --> 00:17:14,880 So Amazon has the opportunity to get incremental margin 338 00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:17,520 efficiency through robotics over the next five years. 339 00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:20,359 If that drops to the bottom line, which I believe it will, 340 00:17:20,720 --> 00:17:23,200 that is massive profits for this company. 341 00:17:23,359 --> 00:17:26,520 Keep in mind that right now Amazon is not optimized for 342 00:17:26,520 --> 00:17:29,200 profits. If this dynamic shifts, we're 343 00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:31,000 stock based. Compensation continues to go 344 00:17:31,000 --> 00:17:34,760 down, the cost of employees goes down and salaries go down while 345 00:17:34,760 --> 00:17:36,680 margins pick up and free cash flow picks up. 346 00:17:36,680 --> 00:17:39,040 We'll see a much more healthy, profitable company. 347 00:17:39,080 --> 00:17:42,560 And this robotics play for Amazon follows their same exact 348 00:17:42,560 --> 00:17:44,800 identical past of what they've always done. 349 00:17:45,120 --> 00:17:47,920 Just think about it. Amazon originally only sold 350 00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:51,040 their own items on Amazon.com. It was all stuff that they 351 00:17:51,040 --> 00:17:53,080 fulfilled. There is no third party sellers. 352 00:17:53,160 --> 00:17:55,560 But then they said, hey, look, we have all these warehouses, we 353 00:17:55,560 --> 00:17:58,360 have this website, let's make it so other people can sell stuff 354 00:17:58,360 --> 00:18:01,680 on our website as well. Now that's over half the sales. 355 00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:06,240 Take a look at AWS. AWS started as just servers for 356 00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:09,680 Amazon, but they said, hey look, we have extra capacity. 357 00:18:09,960 --> 00:18:12,320 We can make it so other people could host on our servers as 358 00:18:12,320 --> 00:18:14,160 well, and we'll just take care of that for them. 359 00:18:14,640 --> 00:18:17,920 Now, AWS is primarily a product for other people, not just for 360 00:18:17,920 --> 00:18:20,600 Amazon. You also have robotics. 361 00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:23,200 Robotics, again, will start the exact same way. 362 00:18:23,480 --> 00:18:26,920 Amazon has over 1,000,000 robots working in their warehouses. 363 00:18:27,360 --> 00:18:29,400 They'll originally have them working for themselves. 364 00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:33,240 Even when they build autonomous robots, humanoid robots, ones 365 00:18:33,240 --> 00:18:36,440 that can walk around and deliver packages, they will initially be 366 00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:39,800 purpose built for Amazon's own purposes, for delivering 367 00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:42,880 packages. But eventually Amazon will have 368 00:18:42,880 --> 00:18:46,120 the technology down so well, they'll have been able to test 369 00:18:46,120 --> 00:18:49,480 it with their own products, their own services, so well that 370 00:18:49,480 --> 00:18:51,400 they'll be able to sell them to other people. 371 00:18:51,400 --> 00:18:53,720 That's how it worked with AWS. That's how it worked with the 372 00:18:53,720 --> 00:18:55,840 online sales. That's what Amazon does. 373 00:18:56,120 --> 00:18:59,720 They build for themselves first. Then once they get it down, they 374 00:18:59,720 --> 00:19:02,080 sell it to the public. And I believe that will be the 375 00:19:02,080 --> 00:19:06,160 next step of Amazon now #3 of why I believe Amazon is a buy 376 00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:08,960 today and the stock is going to double over the next five years. 377 00:19:09,640 --> 00:19:12,040 I believe that it's good to invest in companies that have 378 00:19:12,040 --> 00:19:15,720 something called high lifetime value, meaning companies where 379 00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:20,280 customers just use them every single day, every year, year 380 00:19:20,280 --> 00:19:23,040 after year after year for their entire lives. 381 00:19:23,480 --> 00:19:25,680 Companies that people just never move away from. 382 00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:28,120 Those are the type of companies I try to target. 383 00:19:28,440 --> 00:19:31,640 Ones like Netflix, Netflix is just a part of people's lives. 384 00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:34,680 Ones like Google where they have YouTube, that's just a part of 385 00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:36,440 people's lives. It's never going to go away. 386 00:19:36,920 --> 00:19:39,360 You also have, of course, other ones like Costco. 387 00:19:39,360 --> 00:19:41,520 It becomes a routine part of people's lives. 388 00:19:41,520 --> 00:19:43,680 They go there every week of the year. 389 00:19:43,800 --> 00:19:46,080 Then, of course, we have Amazon, which I believe is becoming a 390 00:19:46,080 --> 00:19:48,400 bigger and bigger part of people's lives over time. 391 00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:52,080 All the evidence shows that. And part of that is because of 392 00:19:52,080 --> 00:19:56,040 their digital ecosystem, their overall value proposition, their 393 00:19:56,040 --> 00:19:59,080 subscription. Amazon has built the Amazon 394 00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:03,680 Prime subscription as a standard de facto membership for family 395 00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:06,200 households. Almost every household in 396 00:20:06,200 --> 00:20:09,280 America has one of these memberships, and that's because 397 00:20:09,280 --> 00:20:11,400 the value proposition is incredibly good. 398 00:20:11,400 --> 00:20:15,000 It's very difficult to pass up. For example, when we look at 399 00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:18,720 Amazon Prime actually has you can just take a brief look at 400 00:20:18,720 --> 00:20:21,920 where they're headed with this. First of all, you get delivery 401 00:20:21,920 --> 00:20:25,080 benefits, fast, free delivery. This is one of the biggest 402 00:20:25,080 --> 00:20:27,800 benefits, but I actually don't think it's the biggest benefit 403 00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:30,160 of Amazon Prime. I believe that right now, today 404 00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:33,520 and in the future, the entertainment benefits outweigh 405 00:20:33,520 --> 00:20:36,000 the shipping benefits. You know that I'm invested in 406 00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:38,000 Netflix. I'm very bullish on Netflix and 407 00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:40,280 I believe the stock is going to double over the next five years. 408 00:20:40,840 --> 00:20:43,800 Well, the second place winner I believe in this category is 409 00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:45,800 Prime Video. It's the first stop 410 00:20:45,800 --> 00:20:48,120 entertainment destination, offering customers a vast 411 00:20:48,120 --> 00:20:51,440 collection of premium programming in one app available 412 00:20:51,440 --> 00:20:54,320 across thousands of devices. They're building out more key 413 00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:56,840 series, they're building out more movies, they're building 414 00:20:56,840 --> 00:21:00,200 out more long term content, and this is a huge growth driver for 415 00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:01,400 the company. Long term. 416 00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:04,240 People love content, they love being entertained. 417 00:21:04,520 --> 00:21:07,440 This is just another pull for the Prime membership. 418 00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:09,600 Then you have countless other benefits. 419 00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:13,320 Amazon Music, you get access to a free version of this, which is 420 00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:15,400 actually quite good for just being included. 421 00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:18,320 It makes it so Amazon Music Unlimited is much cheaper. 422 00:21:18,440 --> 00:21:20,520 You have Prime Gaming. This is something that they're 423 00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:22,280 trying to build out similar to Netflix. 424 00:21:22,280 --> 00:21:25,600 It hasn't taken root yet, but it's another value proposition. 425 00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:28,320 We have Amazon Photos, which is actually pretty incredible. 426 00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:31,720 Prime members get unlimited full resolution photo storage with 427 00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:34,120 five gigs of video storage, exclusive deals. 428 00:21:34,120 --> 00:21:37,440 They have a Prime Visa membership card and so on and so 429 00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:39,440 forth. Amazon is aggressively building 430 00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:42,080 out their entertainment. What deals with the NFL? 431 00:21:42,120 --> 00:21:44,800 Deals with the NBA? They're negotiating for more 432 00:21:44,800 --> 00:21:47,040 sports rights and contracts with soccer. 433 00:21:47,360 --> 00:21:48,880 They're trying to do this across the board. 434 00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:52,960 Amazon is trying to win at media at the same time as winning in 435 00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:55,800 cloud, and most other cloud companies are not doing this to 436 00:21:55,800 --> 00:21:57,840 the same degree. This is a high margin portion of 437 00:21:57,840 --> 00:22:00,240 the company that continues to grow above 10%. 438 00:22:00,360 --> 00:22:03,520 Now #4 of why I think this stock is going to double in the next 5 439 00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:05,720 years is simply the advertising business. 440 00:22:05,760 --> 00:22:08,960 Amazon is #3 globally behind Google and Meta. 441 00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:10,720 Now. Google and Meta are kings of 442 00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:13,080 advertising, but in a different way than Amazon. 443 00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:16,040 Google, Meta are everywhere with their social media networks, all 444 00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:18,880 the social properties that Meta has, and then of course, Google 445 00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:20,840 with YouTube and their search business. 446 00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:23,720 So they have advertising down. Those companies are doing great, 447 00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:26,400 but Amazon's taking a bit different of an approach. 448 00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:29,160 Amazon, of course, has their online retail business number 449 00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:32,000 one in the world, and they're infusing a lot of that with 450 00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:35,000 sponsored ads. Retail advertising is still 451 00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:36,960 early on. This is something that's not yet 452 00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:40,360 highly optimized, even though it already has super high margins. 453 00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:43,200 This is going to be a category that continues to grow when we 454 00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:45,800 filter about everything else but just the advertising. 455 00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:48,960 This is growing near 20%. They're also advertising on 456 00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:50,800 Prime Video. That's probably the next biggest 457 00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:52,600 way. They're advertising on Twitch. 458 00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:55,880 They're advertising on all these different channels, and Amazon 459 00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:58,560 is getting better and more effective with their ads, just 460 00:22:58,560 --> 00:23:01,800 like Google and Meta did. I'll note that Meta and Google 461 00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:06,240 have grown their ad revenue for a year and years and years, far 462 00:23:06,240 --> 00:23:07,760 beyond what most people predicted. 463 00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:10,960 And I believe that Amazon is in the early innings of their 464 00:23:10,960 --> 00:23:14,000 advertising growth. It's growing at 20% today. 465 00:23:14,360 --> 00:23:16,320 And I think they'll be able to keep this up for long into the 466 00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:18,760 future. They have so many avenues of 467 00:23:18,760 --> 00:23:21,560 growing their advertising, and they're even making it so that 468 00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:25,520 advertisers on Amazon can now pay to have ads on Netflix. 469 00:23:25,840 --> 00:23:28,760 They're brokering these ads with their advertiser base. 470 00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:31,120 This is a very good position for Amazon to be in. 471 00:23:31,120 --> 00:23:34,600 And #5 of why I believe Amazon is a great pick today is because 472 00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:38,000 of the logistics network. Logistics requires scale. 473 00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:41,040 It requires more volume. The more volume you have, the 474 00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:43,520 more products you're selling, the more things are moving, the 475 00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:46,760 easier you can scale logistics. And at the more cost efficiency 476 00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:50,080 you can scale logistics. So in terms of cost structure, 477 00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:52,320 the biggest company wins in logistics. 478 00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:55,200 Amazon has the number one online retail store. 479 00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:58,400 They're selling comparable amounts to to Walmart and 480 00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:01,080 they're doing so with this massive logistics business. 481 00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:04,280 In fact, Amazon logistics is so big now, they basically built 482 00:24:04,280 --> 00:24:06,920 out their own UPS and FedEx and DoorDash combined. 483 00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:09,520 It is incredible. And what they're doing with this 484 00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:13,240 is again, like Amazon does, they build it for themselves and then 485 00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:15,720 they sell it to other people. And that's exactly what they're 486 00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:18,400 doing in logistics. We have news here that Amazon 487 00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:21,960 adds Walmart, Shopify Sheen to multi channel fulfillment 488 00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:24,520 coverage where they basically do everything in terms of 489 00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:26,360 logistics. And the big companies that 490 00:24:26,360 --> 00:24:29,240 they're adding here is Shopify, which is a a big one. 491 00:24:29,240 --> 00:24:32,240 That's a big one for Amazon. Shopify previously tried to 492 00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:35,680 build their own Amazon fulfillment network and they cut 493 00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:38,200 that out early. They decided that was a no go, 494 00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:40,720 way too expensive, way too much cap back. 495 00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:43,400 Now they're relying on Amazon. They're becoming partners with 496 00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:47,160 them along with Walmart, which of course is a huge win and 497 00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:49,240 Sheen. Amazon, meanwhile, is being 498 00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:52,400 extremely aggressive with this. They're planning to launch in 499 00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:56,640 quote, every major manufacturing location, so Amazon's just going 500 00:24:56,640 --> 00:24:58,440 everywhere. They want to be the dominant 501 00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:02,920 concentrated winner in logistics and scale creates further scale 502 00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:05,080 with this. Remember, you need volume to do 503 00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:08,400 this on a cost effective basis. Amazon has that volume. 504 00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:11,720 Amazon's dominant unique foothold in logistics, which is 505 00:25:11,720 --> 00:25:15,160 incredibly costly and it takes a long time to replicate and build 506 00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:18,680 out, is another tool in their vast tool chest to be able to 507 00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:20,640 have excess returns over the next five years. 508 00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:22,520 It's another thing that they can leverage. 509 00:25:23,000 --> 00:25:26,960 So when I look at Amazon, this story of AWS growth, millions of 510 00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:30,280 customers using it, robotics and automation, making the company 511 00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:33,720 more efficient, their massive Prime ecosystem, the long 512 00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:37,080 lifetime customer value, the huge advertising business 513 00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:39,240 they're building, and the logistics network. 514 00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:42,160 I just love this stock. I think it's one of the best 515 00:25:42,160 --> 00:25:44,800 ones in the market. Now having said that, it doesn't 516 00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:46,040 mean that it's going to go up tomorrow. 517 00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:48,200 We've seen this many times before. 518 00:25:48,520 --> 00:25:52,400 We can't control for short time trades and the fluctuations and 519 00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:55,080 volatility of a stock, but we can control when we buy a 520 00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:57,320 company. We can control ourselves of when 521 00:25:57,320 --> 00:26:00,560 we buy and when we sell. I've been using opportune times 522 00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:03,560 to buy Amazon stock. The tariff dip and when the 523 00:26:03,560 --> 00:26:06,560 company dips down for no good reason, I believe are great 524 00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:10,280 times to buy this stock. Right now I have $133,000 of the 525 00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:14,400 company, 40,500 in gains, and I believe it's just getting 526 00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:16,400 started. I'd like to see this eventually 527 00:26:16,400 --> 00:26:21,400 become a 200 three $100,000 position from gains, lifting it 528 00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:23,520 alone. So I'm super bullish on it. 529 00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:25,800 I think it's going to do great, but we'll have to wait in the 530 00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:27,200 sea. There's no guarantees in 531 00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:29,640 investing. Anything can happen, but that's 532 00:26:29,640 --> 00:26:31,400 my thesis. Now, moving on, we get to the 533 00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:33,800 return of Jimmy Kimmel's show back on the ABC. 534 00:26:33,800 --> 00:26:36,200 We know about a week ago, there's a lot of controversy 535 00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:39,120 when his show was suddenly pulled after some indirect 536 00:26:39,120 --> 00:26:42,720 pressure from the FCC and the big wigs at Disney deciding that 537 00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:46,640 what he said was both inaccurate and insensitive, they decided to 538 00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:49,520 pull his show. Now, this has caused a huge stir 539 00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:51,920 of arguments for freedom of speech or the responsibility of 540 00:26:51,920 --> 00:26:55,520 businesses, the differences between public broadcast radio 541 00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:57,880 and private channels and so on and so forth. 542 00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:00,640 I covered the whole issue and a lot of detail in a previous 543 00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:03,440 episode that you can look up. But what's happened since then? 544 00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:07,120 In only a few days, ABC or Disney has decided to bring back 545 00:27:07,120 --> 00:27:10,120 his show, and with it, the return of Jimmy Kimmel. 546 00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:14,240 Now a lot of people were waiting to know what he was going to 547 00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:16,200 say. In fact, this is probably the 548 00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:19,000 most anticipated monologue of the year. 549 00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:22,000 He was fired and rehired within a week. 550 00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:24,640 How is Jimmy Kimmel going to address this controversy? 551 00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:27,320 What is he going to say? It's a very interesting thing. 552 00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:29,960 Most people are curious about what he was going to say. 553 00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:33,720 Was he going to be apologetic? Was he going to correct things? 554 00:27:33,720 --> 00:27:36,200 Was he going to be more indignant and double down? 555 00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:38,320 What is he going to do in this monologue? 556 00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:41,440 So this is likely, I believe, one of the most anticipated 557 00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:44,320 monologues of the year. I think it's probably Jimmy 558 00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:48,160 Kimmel's most watched episode in probably the past five years. 559 00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:51,680 He really probably has more attention now than ever before. 560 00:27:52,120 --> 00:27:54,760 And I want to highlight how he responded to this controversy. 561 00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:57,080 And during the monologue, this is the part where he addressed 562 00:27:57,240 --> 00:27:59,960 his previous monologue that got him kicked off the air. 563 00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:03,960 Hearing a lot about what I need to say and do tonight, and the 564 00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:06,680 truth is, I don't think what I have to say is going to make 565 00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:08,440 much of a difference. If you like me, like me. 566 00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:10,520 If you don't, you don't. I have no illusions about 567 00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:13,160 changing anyone's mind, but I do want to make something clear 568 00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:15,160 because it's important to me as a human. 569 00:28:15,360 --> 00:28:19,240 And that is, you understand that it was never my intention to 570 00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:22,040 make light of the murder of a young man. 571 00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:29,640 I don't, I don't think there's anything funny about it. 572 00:28:30,120 --> 00:28:33,160 I posted a message on Instagram of the day he was killed sending 573 00:28:33,160 --> 00:28:35,760 love to his family and asking for compassion. 574 00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:39,680 And I meant it and I still do. Nor was it my intention to blame 575 00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:43,560 any specific group for the actions of what it was obviously 576 00:28:43,560 --> 00:28:47,520 a deeply disturbed individual. That was really the opposite of 577 00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:50,080 the point I was trying to make. But I understand that to some 578 00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:53,440 that felt either I'll timed or unclear or maybe both. 579 00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:57,360 And for those who think I did point a finger, I get why you're 580 00:28:57,360 --> 00:28:59,120 upset. If the situation was reversed, 581 00:28:59,120 --> 00:29:01,560 there's a good chance I'd have felt the same way. 582 00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:05,120 I have many friends. That was his basic address of 583 00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:08,000 the controversy, and there's a couple different ways to look at 584 00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:10,400 this. He didn't exactly say I'm sorry, 585 00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:11,960 he didn't say those specific words. 586 00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:15,920 He didn't say what I said was wrong, but he did clarify. 587 00:29:16,000 --> 00:29:19,640 And I think that this is about as close to an apology you're 588 00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:22,680 going to get from Jimmy Kimmel. I don't think that he was ever 589 00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:24,240 going to come out and say I was wrong. 590 00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:26,160 I apologize. But what I see here is a 591 00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:28,920 roundabout way of saying what I said was dumb. 592 00:29:29,200 --> 00:29:31,360 It's a roundabout way of apologizing. 593 00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:34,600 It's kind of a way of apologizing while trying to save 594 00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:36,840 face. You're not exactly saying the 595 00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:37,880 words. I'm sorry. 596 00:29:38,200 --> 00:29:40,520 But he's definitely walking back what he said. 597 00:29:40,800 --> 00:29:42,520 He's walking it back to a huge degree. 598 00:29:42,520 --> 00:29:46,080 He's trying to to really correct and kind of give clarity to how 599 00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:47,720 he really feels about the situation. 600 00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:50,200 So I thought that this was about as good of a response as Jimmy 601 00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:52,240 Kimmel could give given the situation. 602 00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:54,440 I think it sounded at least sincere. 603 00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:56,960 At the end of the episode. He also did more of a tribute to 604 00:29:56,960 --> 00:30:00,640 Erica Kirk a moment. Over the weekend, a very 605 00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:02,680 beautiful moment. I don't know if you saw this on 606 00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:05,640 Sunday. Erica Kirk forgave the man who 607 00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:08,240 shot her husband. She forgave him. 608 00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:16,680 That is an example we should follow if you believe in the 609 00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:20,880 teachings of Jesus, as I do. There it was. 610 00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:25,040 That's that's it. A selfless act of grace, 611 00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:27,920 forgiveness from a grieving widow. 612 00:30:28,400 --> 00:30:35,560 It touched me deeply and I hope it it touches many. 613 00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:39,120 And if there's anything we should take from this tragedy to 614 00:30:39,120 --> 00:30:41,200 carry forward, I hope it can be that. 615 00:30:41,640 --> 00:30:43,640 So there's multiple mentions of this event. 616 00:30:43,640 --> 00:30:46,560 He's taking the tragedy a lot more serious in this return. 617 00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:49,040 So there you have him addressing this controversy, I think in 618 00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:50,760 about as good of a way as he could. 619 00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:53,800 You could have came out and just straight up apologized. 620 00:30:53,800 --> 00:30:56,840 But again, it's Jimmy Kimmel. I think he did walk it back, and 621 00:30:56,840 --> 00:30:59,720 he does seem sincere. We also have at the same time 622 00:30:59,720 --> 00:31:01,560 this continued theme of censorship. 623 00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:04,440 We have YouTube admitting that they banned thousands, if not 624 00:31:04,440 --> 00:31:08,840 millions of accounts for COVID-19 misinformation or 625 00:31:08,840 --> 00:31:12,280 election misinformation. So during that time period in 626 00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:14,920 2020, people could post things on YouTube. 627 00:31:14,920 --> 00:31:18,560 If they deemed it as false or misinformation, they would ban 628 00:31:18,560 --> 00:31:21,360 your channel permanently. Now YouTube's reversing these 629 00:31:21,360 --> 00:31:24,760 bans, YouTube says quote today, YouTube's community guidelines 630 00:31:24,760 --> 00:31:27,800 allow for a wider range of content regarding COVID and 631 00:31:27,800 --> 00:31:30,120 election integrity. YouTube wrote on X that it will 632 00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:34,080 be a limited pilot project open to a subset of creators, as well 633 00:31:34,080 --> 00:31:36,800 as channels that were terminated under the policies that the 634 00:31:36,800 --> 00:31:39,560 company has since retired. Among the previously banned 635 00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:42,400 under those rules, we're the associate of the deputy FBI 636 00:31:42,400 --> 00:31:45,200 director Dan Bongino. We have former Trump chief 637 00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:47,920 strategist Steve Bannon. We have the Health and Human 638 00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:50,080 Services secretary Rob F Kennedy Junior. 639 00:31:50,440 --> 00:31:52,880 It's not clear if those channels will be reinstated, but those 640 00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:54,600 were some of the biggest ones that were banned. 641 00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:57,760 YouTube also said it's no longer going to empower third party 642 00:31:57,760 --> 00:32:00,800 fact checkers to moderate content and will continue to 643 00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:02,800 enable free speech on the platform. 644 00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:06,200 So in a lot of cases, the third party fact checkers have been 645 00:32:06,200 --> 00:32:09,080 accused of being biased. They can say that this is not a 646 00:32:09,080 --> 00:32:11,800 fact when it's really just a political view they don't like. 647 00:32:12,040 --> 00:32:13,600 Therefore these channels get banned. 648 00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:16,480 And therein lies the problem and why YouTube's changing its 649 00:32:16,480 --> 00:32:18,720 policy. In fact, YouTube is following 650 00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:22,560 very similarly the policy on X or Twitter today, which is a 651 00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:25,520 feature that will display information panels with links to 652 00:32:25,520 --> 00:32:28,000 independent fact checks under the video. 653 00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:30,760 If someone makes some crazy claim or something that's 654 00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:33,320 medically inaccurate or you know, some other inaccurate 655 00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:36,360 information, rather than just banning their channel outright, 656 00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:38,560 you'll have further context underneath. 657 00:32:38,600 --> 00:32:41,400 You'll have the counter argument right underneath the video. 658 00:32:41,520 --> 00:32:44,440 Overall, I think this is the right direction for Google to go 659 00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:47,000 to reinstate these accounts to allow people to express their 660 00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:49,440 opinions even if they're wrong or they're misinformation or 661 00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:51,320 they're dumb. It's better than going down the 662 00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:54,360 route of someone unilaterally banning these accounts and 663 00:32:54,360 --> 00:32:55,840 making them so people can't see them. 664 00:32:55,960 --> 00:32:58,640 I posted on X that I believe it was the right thing for Jimmy 665 00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:01,560 Kimmel's show to return. That way the market can judge 666 00:33:01,560 --> 00:33:02,560 it. The free market. 667 00:33:02,840 --> 00:33:04,960 If you don't like Jimmy Kimmel, you don't have to watch them. 668 00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:06,880 Just like these YouTube channels. 669 00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:09,720 If you don't like what these channels are saying, you can 670 00:33:09,720 --> 00:33:11,760 vote with your feet, with your eyes. 671 00:33:11,760 --> 00:33:13,040 You don't need to give them views. 672 00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:15,880 So in this case, I think it's better to have more information, 673 00:33:16,080 --> 00:33:19,720 more context, more debate, and less censorship, less top down 674 00:33:19,720 --> 00:33:22,240 management, less banning of accounts or deplatforming 675 00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:23,680 people. Now finally, we get to a new 676 00:33:23,680 --> 00:33:26,560 appearance of Mark Mahaney, an analyst that I very much like. 677 00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:29,760 Mark Mahaney explains his thesis on Netflix and why he believes 678 00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:34,640 the stock is going to rise 20% from a share price of $1200 per 679 00:33:34,640 --> 00:33:36,080 share. Let's go ahead and take a look 680 00:33:36,080 --> 00:33:38,720 at his thesis. There was an anticipation in the 681 00:33:38,720 --> 00:33:41,800 trade year to date that we were going to have a heck of a strong 682 00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:43,400 content slate in the back half the year. 683 00:33:43,800 --> 00:33:46,360 I think that's coming through. And I think there's a little bit 684 00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:50,600 of surprise in this, this drama that everybody's now loved in 685 00:33:50,600 --> 00:33:52,440 its most popular movie, I guess of all time. 686 00:33:52,680 --> 00:33:55,800 K Pop Demon Hunters. But you still have, you still 687 00:33:55,800 --> 00:33:57,120 have Carl. Don't forget, you still got 688 00:33:57,120 --> 00:33:58,800 Stranger Things. And it's coming out in three 689 00:33:58,800 --> 00:34:00,240 batches. So this is going to keep you 690 00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:02,960 busy, Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year's. 691 00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:05,600 And then I think the contents that will just continue to get 692 00:34:05,600 --> 00:34:07,240 stronger. I think the next move in the 693 00:34:07,240 --> 00:34:11,440 stock is going to be based on them ramping up advertising 694 00:34:11,440 --> 00:34:12,440 revenue. I think they're going to do it, 695 00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:13,880 but this is going to be a long slog. 696 00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:16,920 And then also getting more and more into live events, including 697 00:34:16,920 --> 00:34:18,560 sports. And I think we're going to see 698 00:34:18,560 --> 00:34:20,280 that. I think Netflix is just going to 699 00:34:20,280 --> 00:34:24,159 become more crucial, more essential to households around 700 00:34:24,159 --> 00:34:25,920 the world over the next two to three years. 701 00:34:25,920 --> 00:34:29,120 It's a really good asset. You want to be long it. 702 00:34:29,120 --> 00:34:30,880 This is not an aggressive entry point. 703 00:34:31,080 --> 00:34:34,840 But if you don't own any, you should buy some I think and look 704 00:34:34,840 --> 00:34:37,760 for those big pull backs to step in and take big positions. 705 00:34:37,760 --> 00:34:39,719 I like Netflix as a core franchise. 706 00:34:40,280 --> 00:34:42,840 I'm actually surprised about how bullish he is here. 707 00:34:42,840 --> 00:34:46,159 I've owned Netflix for so long, and when a stock just goes up 708 00:34:46,159 --> 00:34:48,600 and up and up and up, you get anchored to certain price 709 00:34:48,600 --> 00:34:49,920 points. You think, jeez, am I really 710 00:34:49,920 --> 00:34:51,320 going to buy more of this company? 711 00:34:51,639 --> 00:34:54,400 But here he is avoiding the anchoring bias. 712 00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:58,200 Even though Netflix is up 30 some odd percent this year, it's 713 00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:00,640 up big last year, the year before, the year before. 714 00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:02,840 Netflix has been such an incredible performer. 715 00:35:03,080 --> 00:35:04,800 He believes there's more to go with this company. 716 00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:08,560 So in his thesis, he sees sustained 20% or greater 717 00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:11,400 earnings per share growth for Netflix over the next five 718 00:35:11,400 --> 00:35:13,640 years. Incredibly rapid growth from a 719 00:35:13,640 --> 00:35:16,640 high quality asset. And I, of course, agree. 720 00:35:16,680 --> 00:35:19,880 Netflix continues to be my number one or two position in 721 00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:21,800 the story fund. Now that's going to be it for 722 00:35:21,800 --> 00:35:23,040 this time. Hope you enjoyed. 723 00:35:23,200 --> 00:35:24,000 See you in the next one.