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There's a couple of fundamental 
questions that every investor 

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asks at some point and these 
questions are often repeated all

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throughout investing. 
One of the questions is simply 

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what do we buy? 
What do we buy? 

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There's so many options of 
different Investments to make 

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what should we focus our time 
on? 

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And then of course, the other 
questions are when do we buy? 

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And when do we sell, if we buy 
high quality Investments but we 

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buy them at the wrong time. 
We may actually have inferior 

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returns. 
We may actually lose money by 

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buying at the wrong time and 
going at the wrong time and 

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likewise, if we buy at the right
time and we sell at the right 

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time, we can have very favorable
returns. 

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So a lot of investing comes down
to not only what we buy, but 

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when we buy it and when we sell 
it and out of those questions, 

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I've been thinking about one in 
particular and that is, when do 

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we buy? 
I recently purchased a pretty 

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large position into Starbucks. 
This is a high quality company 

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that's fallen down in price 
significantly from its peak. 

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But regardless I'm in the red by
over four thousand dollars so 

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far This looks like it could be 
a mistake and I've received a 

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lot of feedback and a lot of 
comments over the previous 

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episodes of how this may in fact
be a mistake, let me just 

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highlight one of them for you. 
This is a real comment left on 

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one of the previous episodes. 
The commenter here says Joseph, 

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you're trying so hard to justify
your purchase in the Starbucks. 

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Talk just like you did in Ali 
Baba. 

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I made a similar mistake in the 
past but learn quickly to cut my

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losses and move on. 
I appreciate the viewer for 

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leaving that comment because I 
got a chance to think about it 

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and see if I am. 
In fact making the Same mistake 

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is Starbucks going to be another
repeat of Ali Baba. 

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A stock that falls precipitously
for months on end and never 

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fully recovers is at the 
situation that we might go into 

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a Starbucks and then that got me
thinking more Starbucks 

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obviously is a high quality 
company. 

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It has good brand value. 
It has excellent fundamentals as

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very high Returns on invested 
Capital but that still leaves 

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the question. 
When do we buy? 

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When do we buy a high-quality 
company like Starbucks? 

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And did I buy this one at the 
wrong time? 

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Now? 
For a fundamental investing 

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question. 
It's brought up. 

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Like, when do we buy? 
I like to turn to The Experts. 

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The ogs of investing like Warren
Buffett and he has a lot to say 

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about when to buy a stock. 
Here's his input on the subject.

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I'm not recommending that people
buy socks today or tomorrow or 

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next week, or next month. 
I think it all depends on your 

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circumstances, but you shouldn't
buy stocks, unless you expect in

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my view, you expect to hold them
for a very extended period and 

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you are prepared financially and
psychologically. 

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A logically to hold them the 
same way. 

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You would hold a farm and never 
look at a quote and never never 

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pay it. 
You don't need to pay attention 

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to them. 
The first thing that he mentions

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is, he's not going to give 
specific timing on when to buy a

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stock, not, which day, or which 
week to buy it, but he does 

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mention mentality that you 
should View a stock the same way

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that you would view owning a 
farm. 

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If you owned a farm, you're not 
going to look at your farm every

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day and get price quotes. 
It what you're going to be 

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focused on is the yield of the 
farm. 

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How much fruit is it producing 
are the crops producing. 

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A lot of fruit is everything 
going well and am I getting a 

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good yield at the end of the 
year but with stocks most 

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people's mentality is entirely 
different. 

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We might do some research 
initially when buying the 

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company focusing on the 
fundamentals, the same store 

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sales growth, the unit 
operations. 

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How many stores are opening so 
on and so forth. 

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But after buying the position 
many people change gears and 

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focus solely on the bids. 
Type of bids. 

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Are you getting on the company 
as the price declined? 

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Has a price gone up this all of 
a sudden becomes center stage 

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and most investors focus on 
these prices every single day. 

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We go up and filter by the one 
day and see if the stock is 

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trading up or down every single 
hour, a lot of people are 

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fixated on the daily price 
changes of a stock. 

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In fact, we're so focused on 
price that the suggestion in 

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many cases is if the price Falls
too fast too quick to cut your 

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losses and move on but of 
course, Buffett advises into 

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having a different Quality and 
treating it more like a farm 

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where you're not focused on The 
Daily price quotes and he goes 

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on to give some other valuable 
advice. 

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I mean, the main thing to do 
then you're not going to pick 

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the bottom and you're not going 
to nobody else can pick it for 

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you or anything of the sort. 
He also mentions that you are 

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not going to pick the bottom, 
nobody else can pick it for you.

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So experts that try to pick 
bottoms and pick tops. 

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They're not going to be able to 
do that accurately. 

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And even the best investors in 
the world have never really been

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able to time the bottom 
perfectly. 

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It just doesn't happen. 
Even so if you buy into a stock 

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that's fallen in price, a little
bit, that should be expected, 

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that shouldn't change your 
thesis. 

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Now he goes on to share, even 
more valuable advice, you've got

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to be prepared. 
When you buy a stock them, 

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haven't been down 50% or more 
and be comfortable with it. 

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As long as you're comfortable 
with the whole, you have to be 

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prepared for stock to go down 50
percent or more. 

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And he goes on to say that even 
Berkshire Hathaway considered to

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be one of the strongest and most
resilient companies in the world

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has had its stock price drop 
over 50% 3. 

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Times throughout its history. 
So no matter what stock you own,

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you have to be potentially 
prepared for to drop 

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significantly. 
So I think Buffett shares, very 

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good advice of having the right 
mentality. 

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Focusing on long-term ownership,
not being concerned about trying

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to time the bottom, but he 
doesn't really specifically 

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answer. 
The question of when is the best

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time to really enter into a 
position and buy a stock? 

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And that is where I continue to 
search for what I think is the 

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best example of when to buy a 
stock, an example that we're 

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going to be looking at is yes, 
Chipotle the Quick Service 

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burrito. 
Restaurant most of us are 

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familiar now with Chipotle in 
their modernized menu. 

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But if we go back in time, this 
highly successful stock started 

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off as just a small Mexican 
Grill, it was founded in 1993 

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and soon. 
After in the late 90s, it 

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received an investment from 
McDonald's McDonald's. 

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Initial investment in Chipotle 
help this company, expand to 16 

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different stores. 
And then continue to grow from 

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there. 
And even though the stock price 

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had its ups and downs, the 
company continued to grow 

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throughout the years. 
In fact, from 2007, The 2015 

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Chipotle went from 704, 
locations to 2010 and likewise 

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every metric of the company was 
growing at an incredible Pace, 

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their earnings per share of 
Chipotle were growing. 

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At an incredible Pace. 
They went from just a couple 

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pennies to over four and a half 
dollars and the stock price 

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followed. 
In fact, after around Two 

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thousand, thirteen, a lot of 
people are suggesting that 

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chipotle could be the new 
McDonald's. 

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This amazing company, that was 
growing store counts like crazy.

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It had high Returns on invested 
capital, And everyone seemed to 

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like their food and investors 
couldn't get enough of it. 

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The price of the stock went from
a couple dollars up to above 700

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dollars per share. 
It was one of the greatest 

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stories in the market but in 
2015, when things were seemingly

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too good to be true for Chipotle
things quickly reversed, they 

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had an outbreak, a food 
poisoning outbreak, when they 

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poisoned hundreds of people with
E coli. 

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And this story was plastered all
across the news from CNN, 

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Chipotle shutters, dozens of 
locations as more MD coli, cases

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emerge Bloomberg, had huge 
spreads on the front page saying

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inside Chipotle's contamination,
crisis, Collins was among 53 

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people in nine states, who are 
sickened with the same strain of

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E coli, 46 had eaten at Chipotle
in the week before they fill 

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ill. 
So, Chipotle found itself having

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a food contamination, crisis and
poisoning, dozens of people all 

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across the country, 20 of them, 
got sick enough to be 

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hospitalized. 
Now, as news spread that 

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chipotle was poisoning, people 
all across the country 

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Chipotle's earnings dropped like
a Iraq. 

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They were cut in half the very 
next quarter and then they went 

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into the - earnings per share, 
the quarter afterwards, this is 

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because people stopped eating 
their same-store sales had huge 

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declines. 
That a shutter entire 

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restaurants, completely to 
investigate what's going on. 

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Now as this terrible news is 
unfolding for Chipotle it 

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catches. 
The interest of one investor who

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is Bill Ackman. 
He's looking at all of this 

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stuff unfolding and he becomes 
interested in the stock we have 

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a timeline here. 
Late 2015. 

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It's breaking news that chipotle
poisons hundreds of People with 

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E coli, the stock drops 44 
percent within a year as 

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investors and customers lose 
confidence in the company, then 

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we have breaking news and 2016. 
Bill Ackman just spot a huge 

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stake in Chipotle and a filing 
with the u.s. 

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SEC ackman's Pershing Square 
management. 

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Disclose it had bought nine 
point, nine percent of Chipotle 

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shares, and what enter into 
discussions with the chains top 

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management. 
So, moving on with our timeline 

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here, we can see that after the 
44 percent decrease in share 

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price bill Lachman became 
interested enough in Chipotle 

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to, by almost 10% of the company
mid-2016, that's when he built 

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his position. 
Now on, Big Time investors, like

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Bill Ackman jump into a stock a 
lot of times. 

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You see that nice bump 
afterwards, we see it with 

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Warren Buffett, we see it with 
Elon Musk and we see what Bill 

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Ackman. 
And with this Chipotle by it was

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no different Chipotle shares. 
Rose up almost 9%, right after 

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it was revealed that Ackman 
bought into the company. 

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So he had this nice bump up soon
after the purchase, but in this 

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Case after that initial bump up 
and share price, once it was 

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revealed, he bought a position, 
things didn't go all that. 

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Well for Ackman, the company's 
earnings were frankly, terrible,

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they fell by another 50% down 
into the - and then they only 

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rebounded partially, and then 
they fell back down. 

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Again, it seemed like the 
company really wasn't recovering

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from this outbreak. 
In fact, you see the little 

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spike in stock price in early 
2017, and then it started to 

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plummet afterwards and Bill 
Ackman. 

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Still Held his entire position 
after Ackman, initially bought 

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into a pulley, the stock fell, 
another 35%, and he was down 

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over 200 million dollars on his 
investment. 

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And keep in mind, his investment
was falling losing 200 million 

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dollars in value. 
While the S&P 500 was racing 

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upwards. 
So the Delta between the two was

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very large all the while 
negative criticism for Bill. 

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Ackman and is Chipotle by was 
abundant on social media and 

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through the analysis channels. 
Chipotle Mexican Grill. 

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Don't catch Falling burrito. 
Sell rating on Chipotle. 

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Why Ackman is wrong about 
Chipotle, another sell rating on

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Chipotle, we'll Bill. 
Ackman design, a new clock 

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autopia program, another sell 
rating on Chipotle, and this 

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negativity and criticism towards
Chipotle and Bill Ackman. 

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During this time, was not 
unique. 

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This was a commonly held view at
the time. 

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So this was a situation that 
Bill Ackman was in. 

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He bought Chipotle the stock 
continued to plummet 35% the 

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earnings per share were not 
growing at a fast pace, in fact,

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on paper. 
Even after the 35 percent 

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decline, Chipotle looked very 
expensive. 

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Add a PE ratio above 30 because 
a future expected earnings were 

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so terrible and all the while 
he's lost two hundred million 

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dollars on his investment. 
The S&P 500 is racing upwards 

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and he's facing a ton of 
criticism and negativity online 

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with different analysts. 
And this is where things get 

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very interesting November of 
2017, Bill Ackman appears on 

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CNBC with all the guys there to 
discuss his Investments and 

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Chipotle's one of the focus. 
Points, and keep in mind, the 

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context here, he's down over 200
million dollars, the stock 

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continues to plummet. 
It looks expensive on paper and 

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there's wide criticism towards 
Bill. 

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Ackman and his holding, this is 
the questions that he's getting 

227
00:11:12,700 --> 00:11:15,700
asked during this time. 
Let's talk about Chipotle Bill. 

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If we could sure she has got 
crushed again last week on 

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earnings. 
Now what makes you still 

230
00:11:22,300 --> 00:11:23,800
convinced that you can turn this
thing around? 

231
00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:26,300
So we're early. 
We joined the board in the last 

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year and we're going to work 
hard to make it. 

233
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Help the company turn but it's 
work. 

234
00:11:32,500 --> 00:11:35,200
This work to do, for sure. 
He says that he was early to the

235
00:11:35,200 --> 00:11:38,000
stock and there was work to do 
but they don't let him get off 

236
00:11:38,000 --> 00:11:40,700
by just saying that because it's
a great courage. 

237
00:11:40,700 --> 00:11:43,100
Short answer to a short answer, 
is it go to the stores? 

238
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Are plenty of still long lines. 
Still people buying the product,

239
00:11:45,500 --> 00:11:48,000
the stores are still doing 2 
million Revenue, a 2 million. 

240
00:11:48,000 --> 00:11:50,100
Revenue concept is a great 
concept. 

241
00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:52,500
Now, they were doing two and a 
half million of Revenue before 

242
00:11:53,000 --> 00:11:54,400
they had their the various 
issues. 

243
00:11:54,400 --> 00:11:56,700
But I think the issues they've 
have are all addressable through

244
00:11:56,700 --> 00:11:59,300
better operations and better 
oversight. 

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00:11:59,300 --> 00:12:02,100
Now notice It right away. 
Bill Ackman doesn't seem overly 

246
00:12:02,100 --> 00:12:04,200
concerned with the current stock
price. 

247
00:12:04,300 --> 00:12:06,900
His Focus immediately goes to 
the fundamentals of the 

248
00:12:06,908 --> 00:12:09,100
business. 
There's lines out the door 

249
00:12:09,100 --> 00:12:12,100
people like the concept. 
So Bill ackman's, focus on the 

250
00:12:12,100 --> 00:12:15,900
fundamentals while everyone else
is focus is on the stock price. 

251
00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:19,300
And as you'll see, Bill Ackman 
during this time, was the only 

252
00:12:19,300 --> 00:12:21,600
one that seemed to be bullish on
this stock. 

253
00:12:21,700 --> 00:12:23,800
Listen to the other analysts 
here, ask him, questions 

254
00:12:23,900 --> 00:12:25,900
disclosure. 
And since we have, you know, 

255
00:12:25,900 --> 00:12:29,900
some of the gang here today, 
Josh, you've been - aunty Boat 

256
00:12:29,900 --> 00:12:32,200
lay. 
Steve, you've been - on Tripoli 

257
00:12:32,200 --> 00:12:34,500
suggesting that there's no 
reason why this stock can't 

258
00:12:34,500 --> 00:12:36,900
continue to go lower. 
I love the, by the way, I love 

259
00:12:36,900 --> 00:12:40,700
the restaurant. 
I just think I just think there 

260
00:12:40,700 --> 00:12:44,400
was a magic about the company 
and sometimes the magic wears 

261
00:12:44,400 --> 00:12:48,100
off and once it wears off, then 
people say okay, it's quick 

262
00:12:48,100 --> 00:12:50,400
service restaurant. 
Why am I paying 30 times 

263
00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:52,500
earnings for it? 
Why does it for growth multiple 

264
00:12:52,500 --> 00:12:55,200
if it's not growing etcetera? 
So I don't think it's not 

265
00:12:55,200 --> 00:12:57,700
salvageable. 
I just think like this thing was

266
00:12:57,700 --> 00:13:02,200
looked at as oh my God, it's the
Donald's by a generation of 

267
00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:04,200
investors. 
Now, I like Josh Brown. 

268
00:13:04,200 --> 00:13:07,600
I think he's one of the better 
ones on CNBC, but he references 

269
00:13:07,600 --> 00:13:10,800
the Ford multiple being at 34 a 
company that's going through a 

270
00:13:10,808 --> 00:13:14,500
lot of distress seemingly. 
It's very expensive and people 

271
00:13:14,500 --> 00:13:17,200
previously viewed it as 
McDonald's which in his view 

272
00:13:17,200 --> 00:13:19,600
it's not anymore. 
And again, listen to Bill 

273
00:13:19,600 --> 00:13:22,200
ackman's responds to this by 
from oversexed. 

274
00:13:22,300 --> 00:13:23,700
That's why anyone thinks that 
anymore. 

275
00:13:23,700 --> 00:13:25,900
So that's when it was at 700 
something dollars, a share, 

276
00:13:26,000 --> 00:13:27,300
right today. 
People are looking at me. 

277
00:13:27,700 --> 00:13:30,100
Look at McDonald's. 
McDonald's is certainly had it's

278
00:13:30,100 --> 00:13:31,800
cycles of people. 
Really loving it. 

279
00:13:31,800 --> 00:13:32,800
People hating it. 
Yes. 

280
00:13:32,800 --> 00:13:33,900
And today they're involving at 
mode. 

281
00:13:33,900 --> 00:13:35,100
That's look at Burger. 
King Burger. 

282
00:13:35,100 --> 00:13:38,500
King was the dog of of all 
restaurant companies. 

283
00:13:38,900 --> 00:13:40,200
We're a major shareholder Burger
King. 

284
00:13:40,200 --> 00:13:41,600
We help take the company public 
again. 

285
00:13:41,600 --> 00:13:44,100
When 3G bought Burger King and 
took it private at a thirty 

286
00:13:44,100 --> 00:13:46,000
percent premium. 
But and same store, sales were 

287
00:13:46,008 --> 00:13:47,700
declining. 
I think, Sam's ourselves had 

288
00:13:47,700 --> 00:13:50,200
declined like each quarter for 
the previous three years when we

289
00:13:50,200 --> 00:13:52,900
bought the business, and they've
made magic with Burger King. 

290
00:13:52,900 --> 00:13:55,800
So, I think, you know, here, the
company's been, you know, stock 

291
00:13:55,800 --> 00:13:57,300
was 500 as they're making 
progress. 

292
00:13:57,300 --> 00:14:00,200
They had a, you know, one 
employee sick in a Or a bunch of

293
00:14:00,200 --> 00:14:01,700
people got sick and everything 
like you know, through the 

294
00:14:01,700 --> 00:14:04,700
thing, out of the stocks down, 
almost 50% from that kind of 

295
00:14:04,700 --> 00:14:06,600
near risen high. 
But this is, this is still a 

296
00:14:06,608 --> 00:14:08,600
bunch more than that, they 
didn't have to spend money on 

297
00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:10,300
marketing, the way they now have
to. 

298
00:14:10,500 --> 00:14:13,100
And so that's not going to be 
great for margins long-term. 

299
00:14:13,300 --> 00:14:16,100
There was a time when the only 
ad they needed was the line out 

300
00:14:16,100 --> 00:14:18,600
the door and they had that for 
years now, but there's still 

301
00:14:18,600 --> 00:14:20,000
lots of other ways. 
What's interesting about 

302
00:14:20,000 --> 00:14:22,100
Chipotle in one of the reasons 
why we're involved is not just 

303
00:14:22,100 --> 00:14:25,500
betting on a recovery from the, 
the food safety issue it's at. 

304
00:14:25,500 --> 00:14:28,200
This is one of the least 
optimized of the Quick Service 

305
00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:30,300
restaurants, right now, 
drive-throughs Is no driver 

306
00:14:30,300 --> 00:14:31,700
breakfast. 
I'm with you. 

307
00:14:31,700 --> 00:14:35,900
No breakfast, no, no mobile app 
where you can, you know, the 

308
00:14:35,900 --> 00:14:38,300
lines and stand in front of a 
supposedly today they're still 

309
00:14:38,300 --> 00:14:41,200
lines, people see the line and 
then they go someplace else. 

310
00:14:41,200 --> 00:14:44,000
But I think this is such an 
interesting conversation because

311
00:14:44,000 --> 00:14:47,700
Josh Brown is focused more. 
So, on the current valuation of 

312
00:14:47,700 --> 00:14:50,700
the company, the margins being 
suppressed and the fact that the

313
00:14:50,700 --> 00:14:53,800
stock price may very well go 
down in the short term, but he 

314
00:14:53,800 --> 00:14:56,900
does realize that Bill Ackman at
least has a point Bill Ackman. 

315
00:14:56,900 --> 00:14:59,600
I think resembles a lot more of 
what Warren Buffett's advice. 

316
00:14:59,700 --> 00:15:02,100
Is the focus on the actual 
business. 

317
00:15:02,400 --> 00:15:04,700
Bill Ackman looks at the lines 
and he sees that the business 

318
00:15:04,700 --> 00:15:07,100
can be optimized. 
They could have drive-thrus they

319
00:15:07,100 --> 00:15:09,600
can have mobile apps. 
They can have all those things 

320
00:15:09,600 --> 00:15:11,600
that chipotle currently has 
that. 

321
00:15:11,600 --> 00:15:15,100
They're benefiting greatly from,
but back during this time it was

322
00:15:15,100 --> 00:15:17,000
more difficult to Envision, all 
of that. 

323
00:15:17,300 --> 00:15:20,000
So you see the differences 
between focus is here. 

324
00:15:20,100 --> 00:15:23,400
Bill Ackman is very much focused
on the farm and the yield of the

325
00:15:23,400 --> 00:15:25,500
farm. 
He's not so focused on The Daily

326
00:15:25,500 --> 00:15:27,300
bids and the daily price 
changes. 

327
00:15:27,300 --> 00:15:29,900
But as you can see, when the 
discussion changes from One 

328
00:15:29,900 --> 00:15:32,800
analyst to another, they're all 
focused on the current 

329
00:15:32,800 --> 00:15:36,100
valuation, the current price and
the short-term Outlook. 

330
00:15:36,100 --> 00:15:38,500
How much am I paying for that in
the current multiple? 

331
00:15:38,600 --> 00:15:41,000
I mean, it's still a skit about 
with the stocks done that and 

332
00:15:41,100 --> 00:15:43,600
that doesn't really matter. 
What matters is one of the 

333
00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:47,900
earnings done and what's the 
valuation and a 30 x, next year,

334
00:15:47,900 --> 00:15:50,900
giving the benefit, they hit 
their target for once first time

335
00:15:50,900 --> 00:15:54,000
in three years, it's still very 
expensive in a competitive 

336
00:15:54,000 --> 00:15:55,900
space. 
I would his concern about 

337
00:15:55,900 --> 00:15:59,200
Chipotle during this time is the
same concern that most 

338
00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:01,600
investors. 
Tab any time they buy a stock, 

339
00:16:01,700 --> 00:16:05,500
they look at the next year PE 
and they value the company based

340
00:16:05,500 --> 00:16:08,800
off of next year's earnings. 
And this has been proven time 

341
00:16:08,800 --> 00:16:13,000
and time again to not be a way 
to have Alpha in the market by 

342
00:16:13,000 --> 00:16:16,100
simply looking at the next 12 
months of earnings and Bill 

343
00:16:16,100 --> 00:16:18,500
ackman's, fully aware of this 
problem. 

344
00:16:18,700 --> 00:16:21,100
The opportunities in the stock 
market are created because most 

345
00:16:21,100 --> 00:16:23,400
investors are focused on what 
our next year's are in is going 

346
00:16:23,400 --> 00:16:24,700
to be, what's an appropriate, 
multiple? 

347
00:16:25,100 --> 00:16:27,600
And first story like this, when 
we're company's been through 

348
00:16:27,600 --> 00:16:29,500
what they've been through sales 
of gone from Two and a Half to 

349
00:16:29,600 --> 00:16:31,700
Two million, the right way to 
look at in our view is not just 

350
00:16:31,700 --> 00:16:33,900
about a multiple next year. 
You're like, okay, what's a 

351
00:16:33,900 --> 00:16:36,600
reasonable trajectory for a 
recovery and what will the 

352
00:16:36,600 --> 00:16:39,100
earnings be two years out, four 
years out? 

353
00:16:39,100 --> 00:16:41,500
Six years out, and then discount
those earnings back in time on 

354
00:16:41,500 --> 00:16:43,100
that basis. 
It's a very cheap stock. 

355
00:16:43,100 --> 00:16:46,400
If they can perform the 
lachman's preferred method to 

356
00:16:46,400 --> 00:16:49,000
look at these Investments is 
rather than look at next year's 

357
00:16:49,000 --> 00:16:50,500
earnings. 
He looks at the next four or 

358
00:16:50,500 --> 00:16:52,900
five years. 
He tries to see how things will 

359
00:16:52,900 --> 00:16:55,700
actually change and evolve for 
the company and then he 

360
00:16:55,700 --> 00:16:58,000
discounts that backwards to 
present day. 

361
00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:01,900
And so even though today, Looks 
expensive at a 30 PE ratio. 

362
00:17:02,100 --> 00:17:04,700
He goes on to explain different 
changes in Evolutions in the 

363
00:17:04,700 --> 00:17:07,900
company that he thinks will make
today's price very cheap. 

364
00:17:07,900 --> 00:17:10,599
And hindsight, if you can make a
recovery from the food, safety 

365
00:17:10,599 --> 00:17:13,000
crisis, which in almost every 
fast-food companies been able to

366
00:17:13,000 --> 00:17:17,800
make a recovery and to you start
layering things like online 

367
00:17:17,800 --> 00:17:21,300
ordering breakfast longer hours,
you know they just had their 

368
00:17:21,300 --> 00:17:22,800
first drive through. 
You know, there are lots of 

369
00:17:22,808 --> 00:17:24,400
different ways. 
And also I think what he does 

370
00:17:24,400 --> 00:17:26,700
here is highlight a fundamental 
problem with just looking at 

371
00:17:26,700 --> 00:17:29,300
next year's P/E ratio without 
looking at the fundamental 

372
00:17:29,300 --> 00:17:30,800
development. 
Elements of the company he 

373
00:17:30,800 --> 00:17:33,300
highlights that they could be 
open for longer hours. 

374
00:17:33,400 --> 00:17:35,800
They could have breakfast, they 
could have drive through. 

375
00:17:35,800 --> 00:17:39,000
They could have a mobile app and
delivery and so on and so forth 

376
00:17:39,000 --> 00:17:40,900
that will fundamentally change 
the company. 

377
00:17:41,100 --> 00:17:44,500
And so this next 12 months PE 
ratio that doesn't factor in 

378
00:17:44,500 --> 00:17:47,600
any, of those changes might not 
be the most accurate way to look

379
00:17:47,600 --> 00:17:49,800
at this stock. 
Now, having said that Josh goes 

380
00:17:49,800 --> 00:17:52,400
on to bring up an entirely new 
concern for Chipotle. 

381
00:17:52,500 --> 00:17:56,200
Also in 2006, when they spun out
of McDonald's did the IPO, there

382
00:17:56,200 --> 00:17:59,500
were no real competitors on a 
national basis. 

383
00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:02,900
That were doing Very Fresh 
Mexican food. 

384
00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:06,000
That is obviously not the 
landscape today actually. 

385
00:18:06,000 --> 00:18:08,400
Competitors on National don't 
feel like Del taco is legitimate

386
00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:10,700
competitor. 
It's a suppose you do mean these

387
00:18:10,700 --> 00:18:15,100
are huge chains getting bigger 
and arguably feasting off of a 

388
00:18:15,100 --> 00:18:18,500
concept that chipotle really 
created Rising competition. 

389
00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:22,400
Another challenge, and bear case
for Chipotle at the time and 

390
00:18:22,400 --> 00:18:25,600
most investors were referencing.
All of these bear cases when the

391
00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:28,000
stock price was in the gutter. 
In many times. 

392
00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:31,500
You'll see that sentiment 
Follows stock price, Chipotle 

393
00:18:31,500 --> 00:18:34,300
stock was moving downwards. 
People are referencing the 

394
00:18:34,300 --> 00:18:37,300
increasing competition, the 
problem with their earnings, how

395
00:18:37,300 --> 00:18:40,500
expensive the stock is and how 
everything is going wrong for 

396
00:18:40,500 --> 00:18:41,800
it. 
But, Bill Ackman had to 

397
00:18:41,800 --> 00:18:44,800
repeatedly justify and 
rationalize his investment in 

398
00:18:44,800 --> 00:18:48,700
Chipotle limited to competing 
against other Mexican can take a

399
00:18:48,708 --> 00:18:49,700
look at Burger King. 
Okay? 

400
00:18:49,700 --> 00:18:51,300
Wouldn't Burger King did their 
turn around? 

401
00:18:51,400 --> 00:18:53,000
You don't think there was 
competition and the hamburger 

402
00:18:53,000 --> 00:18:56,000
space, did they turn it around? 
Or did they shrink the size of 

403
00:18:56,000 --> 00:18:59,400
the food? 
And, and really just focus more 

404
00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:02,200
on. 
Shareholders then no Burger King

405
00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:04,200
looking at. 
Look at the sales per box 

406
00:19:04,500 --> 00:19:06,900
wrapped 30-something percent 
from where they were, look at 

407
00:19:06,900 --> 00:19:09,800
the quality of the stores. 
Look at the international growth

408
00:19:09,800 --> 00:19:11,800
of the business. 
So Brokers clouded is so and 

409
00:19:11,800 --> 00:19:14,700
it's still worth, but there's 
also to put the presents. 

410
00:19:14,700 --> 00:19:17,300
Are there are there taco places 
in every Community? 

411
00:19:17,300 --> 00:19:20,900
I'm sure there are other taco 
and Mexican Concepts and but 

412
00:19:20,900 --> 00:19:24,300
it's very difficult to do with 
Chipotle has done as 2300 unit 

413
00:19:24,300 --> 00:19:26,500
scale and by the way, we haven't
talked about International right

414
00:19:26,500 --> 00:19:27,900
that done. 
Nothing internationally, right? 

415
00:19:27,900 --> 00:19:29,500
So there are lots of different 
levels. 

416
00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:32,000
That can be pulled here to make 
this a successful company and I 

417
00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:34,200
have to give him credit for 
sticking to the stock during 

418
00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:35,900
this time. 
I think that the majority of 

419
00:19:35,900 --> 00:19:38,300
investors would have a very 
difficult time doing this. 

420
00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:41,300
The negativity and bear cases 
were Relentless. 

421
00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:45,300
It's one - objection after - 
objection took some given the 

422
00:19:45,300 --> 00:19:48,200
health issues does this really 
scale because isn't that the 

423
00:19:48,200 --> 00:19:51,700
problem that they're trying to 
do fresh food in a format that 

424
00:19:51,900 --> 00:19:54,600
the other chains have looked at 
and said we really can't do 

425
00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:55,600
that? 
Yes, okay. 

426
00:19:55,700 --> 00:19:58,800
And they put in, they put in 
place, very good and they're 

427
00:19:58,800 --> 00:20:01,600
getting making me. 
I think this latest issue they 

428
00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:03,900
had was not an issue of a supply
chain problems. 

429
00:20:03,900 --> 00:20:07,300
An issue of a sick employee, who
came into work, right? 

430
00:20:07,300 --> 00:20:09,200
And they didn't identify the 
management board anywhere. 

431
00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:11,300
It could happen anywhere by the 
way, because it's Chipotle gets 

432
00:20:11,300 --> 00:20:12,800
attention. 
I mean, when they, when the 

433
00:20:12,808 --> 00:20:15,800
Chipotle issues were happening, 
there was a story of the press 

434
00:20:15,900 --> 00:20:18,800
that there was fecal, matter in 
the ice cubes that, you know, I 

435
00:20:18,800 --> 00:20:22,100
won't mention the the hamburger 
chain, but people largely 

436
00:20:22,100 --> 00:20:23,900
ignored it, right? 
But because this is supposedly 

437
00:20:23,900 --> 00:20:26,900
and where the focus is yes to 
continually rationalize and 

438
00:20:26,900 --> 00:20:30,200
defend his position and remind 
other people that it's not 

439
00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:33,900
always dark days ahead for these
companies to that magic is that 

440
00:20:33,900 --> 00:20:36,300
we talked about the reason, why 
magic and come back. 

441
00:20:36,300 --> 00:20:37,800
Just like it's, by the way 
McDonald. 

442
00:20:37,800 --> 00:20:39,800
So that's why it was a check in 
the box. 

443
00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:42,500
They have this social media 
presence, young people, 

444
00:20:42,500 --> 00:20:44,800
fetishized it pencil, that is 
chain. 

445
00:20:44,900 --> 00:20:48,700
He says the magic can come back 
and the magic did come back for 

446
00:20:48,700 --> 00:20:51,400
Chipotle. 
Since that interview, the stock 

447
00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:55,800
price is only raced upwards to 
all-time highs over, triple the 

448
00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:58,600
price of his initial purchase in
fact, since the time of that 

449
00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:02,400
interview Chipotle Averaged, a 
32 percent yearly return 

450
00:21:02,700 --> 00:21:06,500
doubling, the S&P, 500 and 
firmly beating out the QQQ. 

451
00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:10,100
In fact, even in his initial, by
back in 2016, before the large 

452
00:21:10,100 --> 00:21:14,400
drop in price, his position has 
steadily beaten, the S&P 500 and

453
00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:17,500
even beat the QQQ by over 50% 
today. 

454
00:21:17,500 --> 00:21:22,900
Chipotle share price is up 3% to
1556 dollars, the future looks 

455
00:21:22,900 --> 00:21:25,900
bright as ever as they open up 
more and more stores every 

456
00:21:25,900 --> 00:21:28,500
single year. 
Almost reaching 3000 at this 

457
00:21:28,500 --> 00:21:31,800
point and Bill a Woman continues
to hold the stock as his third 

458
00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:34,900
largest holding with an 18% 
waiting, and the earnings per 

459
00:21:34,900 --> 00:21:38,000
share of Chipotle haven't just 
surpassed their 2015 levels. 

460
00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:40,800
They're hitting all new highs. 
So this brings me again, to the 

461
00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:43,800
question of, when's the best 
time to buy a stock for 

462
00:21:43,800 --> 00:21:46,800
Chipotle? 
It was Claire that between 2016 

463
00:21:46,800 --> 00:21:51,300
and 2018. 
That window a very bad - news 

464
00:21:51,300 --> 00:21:54,700
and negative outlook was an 
opportunity that some investors 

465
00:21:54,700 --> 00:21:57,500
like Ackman took advantage of. 
He didn't time the purchase 

466
00:21:57,500 --> 00:22:00,800
perfectly, he certainly didn't 
buy the And he may have had to 

467
00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:02,900
hold on to it for longer than 
expected. 

468
00:22:02,900 --> 00:22:05,900
But, ultimately, he reaped the 
rewards of buying a high quality

469
00:22:05,900 --> 00:22:09,100
company at a very low price. 
And I see the same kind of 

470
00:22:09,100 --> 00:22:12,300
example, repeated, over and over
again throughout history. 

471
00:22:12,400 --> 00:22:14,900
The best time in history to, by 
Marriott was a time when their 

472
00:22:14,900 --> 00:22:18,100
hotels weren't being used. 
Everybody was locked in the best

473
00:22:18,100 --> 00:22:20,700
time to buy oil companies over 
the past five years was during 

474
00:22:20,700 --> 00:22:23,900
the time when oil had no demand.
The investors that bought during

475
00:22:23,900 --> 00:22:25,900
these dips of bad forecast, and 
bad news. 

476
00:22:25,900 --> 00:22:29,000
Reap the returns one of the best
times by Costco stock throughout

477
00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:32,500
its entire Our history was one 
of the big news came that Amazon

478
00:22:32,500 --> 00:22:34,900
was buying Whole Foods. 
Many people thought this would 

479
00:22:34,900 --> 00:22:37,700
be a new competitor. 
It dropped, Costco stock, double

480
00:22:37,700 --> 00:22:40,900
digits and the investors, it 
took advantage of this dip reap 

481
00:22:40,900 --> 00:22:42,700
the rewards. 
So when I make buys into 

482
00:22:42,700 --> 00:22:45,500
companies that I consider to be 
high quality, they have good 

483
00:22:45,500 --> 00:22:47,300
brand value, they have decent 
moats. 

484
00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:49,900
I realize that I'm not going to 
time the bottom with these 

485
00:22:49,900 --> 00:22:52,200
purchases. 
I know that going in with 

486
00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:53,900
Starbucks. 
I bought some of it at ninety, 

487
00:22:53,900 --> 00:22:56,100
six dollars a share. 
Some of it at eighty, five 

488
00:22:56,100 --> 00:22:58,300
dollars, a share. 
And the price is currently 80 

489
00:22:58,300 --> 00:22:59,400
dollars a share. 
It's be. 

490
00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:02,800
Both my current buys and the 
stock price may continue to 

491
00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:05,000
drop. 
In fact with the news coming out

492
00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:07,600
of China it's pretty likely that
it will drop at least in the 

493
00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:10,700
short term Starbucks, is a 
company that's under distress 

494
00:23:10,700 --> 00:23:13,000
right now, it has the 
combination of unions and 

495
00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:16,000
concerns in China. 
The stock is down 36 from its 

496
00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:19,000
all-time high. 
It's trading 16 percent below 

497
00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:23,200
where it was in 2019, that is 
pretty incredible for company. 

498
00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:25,200
That's continued to grow to put 
it another way. 

499
00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:29,400
Starbucks has increased its 
store count by over 4,000 from 

500
00:23:29,500 --> 00:23:31,800
19 to current day and the 
earnings per share of the 

501
00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:34,500
company have gone from 60 cents 
per quarter to earnings per 

502
00:23:34,500 --> 00:23:37,400
share of around a dollar. 
The company has substantially 

503
00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:41,500
increased, its earnings and it's
store count and it's down 20% so

504
00:23:41,500 --> 00:23:44,000
maybe this is another Ali Baba 
situation may be. 

505
00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:47,900
This is the ultimate downfall of
Starbucks and the company will 

506
00:23:47,900 --> 00:23:50,500
never be able to recover. 
But right now that's a bet I'm 

507
00:23:50,500 --> 00:23:53,200
willing to take, I think that 
over the next three or four 

508
00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:55,600
years is company will be much 
more attractive. 

509
00:23:55,700 --> 00:23:58,100
It will have far more stores and
I think that many of the 

510
00:23:58,108 --> 00:23:59,400
concerns that it faces right 
now. 

511
00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:02,400
How will fade into history? 
I share a similar view with 

512
00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:04,500
Domino's. 
This company recently traded 

513
00:24:04,500 --> 00:24:09,100
down over 30% from just a couple
months ago because of a decline 

514
00:24:09,100 --> 00:24:12,300
in same-store sales to me. 
That's very short-term thinking 

515
00:24:12,300 --> 00:24:14,100
and I think the company will 
rebound from it. 

516
00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:16,700
They increase prices on some of 
their items by a dollar, which I

517
00:24:16,700 --> 00:24:18,500
think will help with their same 
store sales. 

518
00:24:18,700 --> 00:24:21,500
So I expect to see an 
improvement with Domino's over 

519
00:24:21,500 --> 00:24:23,900
the next couple of years and I 
think this company is very 

520
00:24:23,900 --> 00:24:26,900
attractively valued so I'm not 
suggesting for anyone to follow 

521
00:24:26,900 --> 00:24:29,100
me into these trades or by these
companies. 

522
00:24:29,500 --> 00:24:33,400
We ones welcome to buy the S&P 
500 or the QQQ that way. 

523
00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:36,100
You can follow the index and not
have to concern yourself with 

524
00:24:36,100 --> 00:24:38,600
individual buys. 
But when I see high quality 

525
00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:41,900
companies fall dramatically in 
price in a short amount of time 

526
00:24:41,900 --> 00:24:45,600
because of what I consider to be
mostly temporary and overblown 

527
00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:47,200
news. 
I think that that's an 

528
00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:50,200
opportunity that I like to take 
advantage of and in terms of 

529
00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:53,500
seeing the stock price drop 
quickly after buying a company, 

530
00:24:53,500 --> 00:24:56,300
a lot of people have said 
comments to the extent of man, 

531
00:24:56,300 --> 00:24:59,300
that seems like so much stress. 
I'd rather just buy the S&P 

532
00:24:59,500 --> 00:25:02,200
Hundred. 
If that's the case if it causes 

533
00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:05,800
you stress to buy individual 
companies, then you shouldn't be

534
00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:08,600
buying individual companies. 
I've been buying individual 

535
00:25:08,600 --> 00:25:12,200
companies for over five years 
and that's never cause me stress

536
00:25:12,300 --> 00:25:14,500
what I'm doing on this channel, 
and what I'll continue to do in 

537
00:25:14,500 --> 00:25:17,700
the future is, share my thoughts
on investing and show you what 

538
00:25:17,700 --> 00:25:20,200
I'm buying with transparency. 
So, I hope you enjoyed that 

539
00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:22,100
little story. 
That's all for this time. 

540
00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:23,200
I'll see you in the next one.
