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It's the 37th week of the year 
guys, and there's some some real

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optimism in the uranium market. 
You know, I'm hearing all of 

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these rumours surfacing around 
Twitter everywhere that, you 

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know, there's, there's four 
prices as high as 85 bucks per 

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pound being thrown around, you 
know, post sort of WNA and, and 

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big lofty ceiling prices in 
that, in that term market as 

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well. 
I'm so keen to get into that. 

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And we're also going to look 
under the hood at the the 

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Palladium and platinum markets. 
Thanks to Sibanya, Stillwater 

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stumbling and China mate, 
they're sending us some mixed 

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messages in the rare earth 
market as well. 

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Maybe as usual, I can't wait to 
bring you all of that today as 

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Maddie's over East. 
But first we got a funny voice 

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memo sent through to us the 
other day, didn't we team? 

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Oh, we did we. 
Did indeed? 

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Let's RIP it, I reckon. 
Let's have a listen. 

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Let's. 
Play this one for the money 

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miners Zai. 
I'm out in lock and fold, belt 

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man in RC rig trying to work out
the world underneath me from the

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scale of a piece of grapple. 
And what do you know what pops 

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up in front of me but a tablet 
with Axis mining technology and 

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displaying the surveys that the 
drillers have just completed. 

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While dust is flying, the chips 
are being washed and by God the 

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hole is bending like a banana. 
Straight from the mouth of one 

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of Australia's best geos, hey? 
Mate, that's bogan owe you a 

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carton for that wonderful bit of
promo in the absence of Maddie. 

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Didn't have to RIP it out 
ourselves team, but go to hell. 

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What is going on in the uranium 
world? 

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Yeah. 
So as we know the West nail for 

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those who don't know, the World 
Nuclear Association conference 

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was held a few weeks ago. 
Big anticipation this year with 

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you being obviously a fair bit 
higher than previous years when 

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the conference has been held 
that this is where you have all 

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the uranium companies, fuel 
buyers and all the like having 

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to talks, you know everything 
you and nuclear. 

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And there was a great article 
that come up over the weekend 

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from Kuppi called you need to 
focus on term. 

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So this is from Kuppi's Corner 
and it had some interesting 

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takeaways from the conference 
and sort of looking at you and 

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nuclear going forward. 
Puppy is Harris Cooperman. 

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Isn't that right? 
JD? 

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If. 
Yeah, he's a a fundy over in the

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States who put a couple feelers 
out to to get on the show. 

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But for those that aren't 
familiar, he's a fund manager 

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who's been watching the uranium 
space for for quite some time, 

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as well as a few of the other 
commodities that we that we like

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to like to follow. 
Mate I. 

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Remember looking at his funds 
performance and just being like.

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That real? 
That was my first thoughts as 

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well mate. 
That's. 

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A pretty good, pretty good 
performance, but yeah. 

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So what were those takeaways, 
Ally? 

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So first one which I think to be
honest you could apply this to. 

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A lot of. 
Commodities. 

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No pun intended to a few 
different commodities, but he 

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highlighted sort of again that 
investors are very fixated on 

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the most recent data points, you
know, sort of bit like goldfish 

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and a bit I'll pick at times. 
So, you know, we saw uranium 

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spot price, you know, peak over 
100 bucks a pound early in the 

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year. 
It's since fall back from then 

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and this pull back seems like 
investors are sort of obsessing 

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and catastrophizing over and 
it's sort of been amplified by a

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bit of a misunderstanding of 
uranium market and how it 

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operates, which sort of 
naturally leads to take away 

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too, which is the spot price is 
a price, it isn't the price. 

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And I think, I think we we all 
know Ali to to what you're 

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saying there, what the spot 
price is, what the term price 

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is. 
But reading through the article,

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I thought it was, it was pretty 
sort of funny and interesting. 

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So I'll just read out a a couple
of sentences. 

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Firstly, talking about the the 
spot price. 

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So to start with, it's where 
miners choose to sell their 

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pounds or purchase pounds when 
they can't meet contractual 

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obligations. 
It's also a market where 

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momentum based hedge funds go to
express a view in another sort 

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of sentence, he says it's a a 
market where enriches dump their

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excess pounds from under 
feeding. 

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So what you can essentially take
from that is it's it's the place

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where hedge funds carry traders,
producers, utilities, 

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speculators all go, go. 
And you know, he, he summed it 

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up quite well with it being the 
most quoted price out there, but

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also largely the most, well, the
most effectively irrelevant 

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price that you see out there. 
Any he put some numbers to that.

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It only makes up 10% roughly of 
the pounds that utilities get. 

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And then on the flip side of 
that, you've obviously got the, 

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the term price, which in simple 
terms for people that haven't 

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followed uranium for, for some 
time is where the, the utilities

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go and lock in the longer term 
contracts. 

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These are, you know, executed 
over many years and they've got 

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prices that reference ceilings, 
they're reference floors. 

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They're not just flat prices, 
they involve periodic deliveries

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as well. 
I. 

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Always thought that, you know, 
the difference between the, you 

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know, the focus on the spot 
price and then you look at the 

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the, the term price and you 
know, the term price is the one 

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that matters. 
But you know, like maybe a 

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misconception that that I and, 
and even and other investors out

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there kind of had is I always 
sort of thought the spot price 

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might have been like the tail 
that wags the dog kind of thing.

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But yeah, I think this article 
kind of questions that that 

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interpretation as well. 
I was gonna say this meme Tuppy 

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had in his cool trap probably 
very accurately sums that up, 

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right? 
Yeah, that's, that's a good one.

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I also, you know, find it kind 
of funny, right? 

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Because I'm sure this is where a
bit of Cappy's kind of edge 

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comes from being able to take 
the differentiated longer term 

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view. 
So maybe it's a bit tongue in 

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cheek that he calls it out or 
he's, he's obviously, you know, 

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disclosed at the bottom of the 
the piece that he's got an 

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interest in uranium at the 
moment. 

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But I'm sure this shorter term 
focus which is commonplace in in

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markets today and I think it has
been for us as long as time is 

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where he actually makes a bit of
his alpha. 

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Absolutely, and I'll quite like 
this other quote from his 

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article as well. 
He says if the vast majority of 

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the total transaction volume 
takes place in the term market, 

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then it seems odd that so many 
investors use the most recent 

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spot trade to guide the 
sentiment. 

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Instead, they should be focused 
on the term market. 

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But unfortunately there are a 
number of problems with using 

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the term market as a benchmark 
because a lot of those contracts

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as, as you sort of highlighted 
JD, they're, they're bespoke and

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sort of quite unique to 
particular situations, mines, 

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fuel buys, etcetera. 
They're often, you know, the 

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terms of that are pretty 
confidential. 

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The actual volume of these 
transactions is a bit on the 

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lower side as well. 
So there's sort of the pros and 

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cons, but again, just just 
highlighting that focus on this 

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is where the majority of pricing
is determined over here, not, 

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not the not necessarily the spot
price what's. 

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Actually happened to the term 
market over like the last six 

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months when you know spot's been
under pressure and and equities 

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have certainly been under 
pressure like the term market's 

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actually each tier, right. 
Yeah, I think, I think the 

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important thing that that people
are picking up on and clearly 

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that's what Cappy's honing in on
here is that you see a a gradual

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rise in the floors and the 
ceilings. 

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And obviously they've got 
they've got features in them 

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that can allow that to rise 
going forward in time as well. 

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But when they're sort of priced 
today, what he's talking about 

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floors of 85 bucks, ceilings of 
135 that that's not throughout 

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the rest of the life of the 
contract that can, you know, 

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elevate over time. 
Again, if that's the way in 

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which the uranium price trends. 
But the broader trend of having 

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those floors being set higher 
and the ceiling set higher is 

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the positive trend that people 
are sort of fixing on, right? 

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Yeah. 
And probably the the final take 

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away from this piece is from 
Cuppy's piece is that utilities 

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are increasingly hungry to 
contract for uranium. 

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You know, supposedly utilities 
are submitting, you know, to 

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market RFP's requests for 
proposal in the next few weeks 

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sort of post WNA mining 
companies have sort of sensed 

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this change in sentiment and you
know raising pricing and 

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anecdotally sort of as you sort 
of mentioned, JD heard that 

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miners are now quoting $85 
floors and $135 ceilings. 

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That's wild, right? 
Which is $85 floor when your 

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spot's 80 thereabouts. 
It's kind of kind of weird. 

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Yeah, no, it's, it's, it's 
pretty huge, right. 

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But I guess the question to ask 
is that's all good from the 

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mining company side, but are 
utilities actually willing to 

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transact at these sort of 
elevated prices that are, you 

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know, especially from the 
ceilings as far as the ceilings 

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concerned well above current 
spot prices? 

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And is the lack of transaction 
volume on these term contracts, 

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is it due to this Mexican 
standoff between the the miners 

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and the fuel buys? 
Or is it because there's a bit 

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of a dearth of miners with 
uncontracted new term 

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production? 
You know, perhaps it's a bit of 

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both. 
And I guess that dynamic can 

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really only last so long given 
there's already pretty low 

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uranium inventories. 
We're coming into the Northern 

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hemisphere winter. 
So they'll start getting chewed 

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up. 
You know, there's been guidance 

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cuts, as we've seen recently 
from the world's biggest 

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producer. 
So there's a lot of, you know, 

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things sort of have played out 
and are playing out now and 

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imagine some of that pricing for
the term market will, you know 

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begin to crystallise soon can. 
You point the alley on bit of a 

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stand off. 
Gosh, I, I, I would have always 

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thought like the initial kind 
of, you know, interactional 

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interest in, in securing supply.
Like it's the it's the, you 

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know, the nuclear buyer that 
kind of has that power to begin 

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with to actually, you know, 
initiate, discuss discussions to

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lock in supply because they're 
trying to whatever they're, you 

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know, they've got to meet their 
like contractual obligations and

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they've got like they're doing 
the power forecast. 

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But then it's the setting, the 
actual price is sort of where 

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where some degree of leverage 
might come to the come to the 

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miners. 
But yeah, I'm the, the, the 

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rhetoric on Twitter would be 
that that Mexican standoff is in

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some part just due to the, the 
cyclical nature and actually 

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these contracting cycles. 
And you know, rather than kind 

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of seeing this, this homogeneous
flow of contracting kind of 

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happening throughout the year, 
it's actually, you know, these 

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these multi year kind of cycles.
And you know there can be a 

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Stampede of everyone trying to 
do at the same time at all, 

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which you know people with the 
bull thesis will point to. 

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00:10:58,560 --> 00:11:01,720
Yeah, I think you've, you've 
framed the, the discussion 

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00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:03,800
really well there, Ally, with 
the the two sides. 

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00:11:03,840 --> 00:11:06,440
I mean, we've, I've personally 
got no, no great insight into 

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00:11:06,440 --> 00:11:08,520
it, although I'm pretty 
interested because one way or 

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00:11:08,520 --> 00:11:10,920
another it seems like we'll find
out in the, you know, the 

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00:11:10,920 --> 00:11:14,360
relative near future what the 
outcome is going to be. 

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00:11:14,480 --> 00:11:18,040
And that would sort of imply a 
movement one way or another. 

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00:11:18,040 --> 00:11:21,200
A sort of line that really stood
out from, from the article was 

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that the uranium market moves at
glacial pace their utilities, 

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after all. 
And I think that's firmly what 

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we're kind of seeing here. 
I just sort of caveat the, the 

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00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:34,000
article, if people go and read 
it themselves, you sort of 

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00:11:34,000 --> 00:11:35,920
finish reading that and you've, 
you've got a bit of an 

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00:11:35,920 --> 00:11:38,400
optimistic view, You've got a 
really bullish view. 

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00:11:38,400 --> 00:11:42,840
And you see the, the sort of 
downtrodden sentiment in the 

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00:11:42,840 --> 00:11:46,000
uranium stocks and more broadly 
across the, the nuclear kind of 

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00:11:46,000 --> 00:11:48,000
universe at the moment. 
And that that's a sign that kind

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00:11:48,000 --> 00:11:51,200
of gets me excited. 
But anecdotally, we'd heard from

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00:11:51,200 --> 00:11:55,600
other people as well out there 
that, you know, it wasn't quite 

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00:11:55,600 --> 00:11:58,880
as as bullish as the article 
might have you believe. 

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00:11:58,880 --> 00:12:02,560
There were people with different
points of view saying the, the 

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00:12:02,560 --> 00:12:04,440
utilities out there, they're 
pretty content. 

220
00:12:04,440 --> 00:12:06,240
They're not feeling the need to 
rush in. 

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00:12:06,680 --> 00:12:09,880
But, you know, who knows? 
Maybe that's a broader disregard

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00:12:09,880 --> 00:12:13,600
that they've had for the uranium
producers out there for a while 

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00:12:13,600 --> 00:12:16,360
to come, and maybe that comes 
and bites them in the ass in the

224
00:12:16,360 --> 00:12:17,560
future. 
Who kind of knows? 

225
00:12:18,120 --> 00:12:22,560
Yeah, another, another piece of,
you know, feedback we'd received

226
00:12:22,560 --> 00:12:26,640
is it it seemed like the mining 
of uranium was a bit of an 

227
00:12:26,640 --> 00:12:30,760
afterthought for fuel buyers, 
which to be honest could be a a 

228
00:12:30,920 --> 00:12:35,160
blessing and a curse for them. 
Sort of think thinking in that 

229
00:12:35,160 --> 00:12:38,600
way. 
You know, some people believe 

230
00:12:38,600 --> 00:12:41,160
that because that a problem is 
sort of addressed the next 12 

231
00:12:41,160 --> 00:12:44,280
months of the sulfuric acid 
shortfall, which has been quite 

232
00:12:44,280 --> 00:12:46,080
a topical issue the last few 
months. 

233
00:12:46,080 --> 00:12:51,280
So it seemed like a lot of the 
finance guys and gals reckon 

234
00:12:51,280 --> 00:12:54,400
yous going to the moon, but 
then, you know, you had nuclear 

235
00:12:54,800 --> 00:12:58,320
insiders sort of a bit more 
muted on that front. 

236
00:12:58,800 --> 00:13:01,760
So yeah, definitely a bit of a 
range of anecdotes and 

237
00:13:01,800 --> 00:13:05,720
perspectives coming out from the
conference, sort of depending on

238
00:13:05,720 --> 00:13:09,280
the on the party I guess. 
Yeah, Speaking of conferences, 

239
00:13:09,280 --> 00:13:12,280
Ali. 
Oh, Speaking of conferences, we 

240
00:13:12,280 --> 00:13:17,960
have to talk about AUS big next 
event coming up, Drill 24, only 

241
00:13:17,960 --> 00:13:21,640
29 sleeps away guys. 
Oh, wait, wait, we're. 

242
00:13:22,080 --> 00:13:24,200
Going to be there. 
And we're going to be there too.

243
00:13:24,200 --> 00:13:27,040
So look, if you haven't got your
tickets yet, links in the show 

244
00:13:27,040 --> 00:13:31,320
notes, get your tickets sorted. 
It's October 15th to 17th in 

245
00:13:31,320 --> 00:13:34,520
Perth at the Convention Centre. 
It's as simple as that. 

246
00:13:35,000 --> 00:13:38,080
We've got, you know, they'll be 
showcasing all the latest and 

247
00:13:38,080 --> 00:13:41,920
greatest in drilling tech and 
equipment and drillers take note

248
00:13:41,920 --> 00:13:45,200
because reps from the major 
modern companies based here in 

249
00:13:45,200 --> 00:13:48,040
Perth will be there. 
So get yourself there. 

250
00:13:48,160 --> 00:13:49,600
That's the mining tech mate. 
Will help you. 

251
00:13:49,600 --> 00:13:51,560
Will help you drill more 
efficiently and cheaply. 

252
00:13:51,840 --> 00:13:56,200
Yes, Oh, if if anything in this 
cost inflationary environment 

253
00:13:56,200 --> 00:13:58,760
that's all you can ask for. 
And like Trev said, we're all 

254
00:13:58,760 --> 00:14:00,880
going to be there. 
Maddie's going to be doing a bit

255
00:14:00,880 --> 00:14:04,800
of M saying it is all happening 
at drill 24. 

256
00:14:04,920 --> 00:14:06,920
That's. 
The real selling point did 

257
00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:09,320
Maddie M saying the show big 
tickets. 

258
00:14:09,520 --> 00:14:10,440
They're in the show notes. 
To. 

259
00:14:12,120 --> 00:14:17,000
A another, another commodity 
market, JD, where, you know, 

260
00:14:17,000 --> 00:14:21,520
we're seeing a good chunk of 
supply curtailment maybe not 

261
00:14:21,720 --> 00:14:24,760
coming in the uranium space, but
this is, this is five years ago 

262
00:14:24,760 --> 00:14:26,480
you saw plenty of curtailment in
the uranium space. 

263
00:14:27,720 --> 00:14:30,880
But yeah, the the Palladium made
Palladium surging. 

264
00:14:31,480 --> 00:14:34,760
Wasn't that, wasn't that uranium
curtailment a sign of things to 

265
00:14:34,760 --> 00:14:37,040
come? 
For the patient investors out 

266
00:14:37,040 --> 00:14:40,800
there, it's almost like this. 
It's very cyclical nature of 

267
00:14:40,800 --> 00:14:44,840
commodities where you have over 
investment and then lag time and

268
00:14:44,840 --> 00:14:46,920
construction and then 
commodities. 

269
00:14:46,920 --> 00:14:48,520
It's kind of, it's kind of funny
if you zoom out. 

270
00:14:49,960 --> 00:14:53,720
So we, we both listened to this 
one mate and I, you know, we, we

271
00:14:53,720 --> 00:14:55,760
spoke about it this morning. 
It was, it was really 

272
00:14:55,760 --> 00:15:01,080
interesting and it's a basket of
commodities PGMS that are just 

273
00:15:01,080 --> 00:15:02,680
really interesting. 
I think the, the first time we 

274
00:15:02,680 --> 00:15:05,920
spoke about it was a good three 
or four months ago and we 

275
00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:10,680
described the, the hated 
environment that I think perks 

276
00:15:10,680 --> 00:15:14,680
all of us up and really stands 
out to those, those investors 

277
00:15:14,680 --> 00:15:17,720
that love trolling for, for 
beating up stuff, right. 

278
00:15:17,880 --> 00:15:20,920
Mate, I think it's the only like
if you're interested in a 

279
00:15:20,920 --> 00:15:25,680
commodity sector to like, you 
know, have positive PNL, it's 

280
00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:31,120
the only way to to do that 
effectively over time is to look

281
00:15:31,120 --> 00:15:33,800
for the look. 
Look for when the the commodity 

282
00:15:33,800 --> 00:15:36,000
is absolutely in the in the 
doldrums. 

283
00:15:36,920 --> 00:15:39,040
That's when. 100%. 
Excited as opposed to follow 

284
00:15:39,040 --> 00:15:41,000
the, you know, the whims of 
human emotion, which is follow 

285
00:15:41,000 --> 00:15:43,560
the thing that's going up. 
Yeah. 

286
00:15:43,560 --> 00:15:47,320
So I mean that that is the 
perfect segue to Subarnay 

287
00:15:47,320 --> 00:15:49,680
Stillwater. 
So to to simplify the business 

288
00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:52,760
real quick for people that 
aren't familiar, they are, 

289
00:15:52,760 --> 00:15:55,480
they're not obviously listed in 
Australia. 

290
00:15:55,480 --> 00:15:58,680
They're to NYSE and a Joburg 
listing. 

291
00:15:59,160 --> 00:16:02,360
I'll flash up their guidance to 
give you a a flavour of what 

292
00:16:02,360 --> 00:16:04,280
they kind of produce for people 
listening in. 

293
00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:08,120
It's PGMS across the the US and 
South Africa. 

294
00:16:08,120 --> 00:16:09,920
There's also gold in South 
Africa. 

295
00:16:10,360 --> 00:16:15,600
In Europe, you've got a nickel 
refinery and a lithium project 

296
00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:17,400
that they've sunk a fair bit of 
money in. 

297
00:16:17,880 --> 00:16:21,520
Bizarrely, you've also got the 
Century Zinc operations as well 

298
00:16:21,520 --> 00:16:24,240
as Mount Lyell here, both in 
Australia. 

299
00:16:24,560 --> 00:16:28,600
And then there's also a uranium 
project which is earmarked to be

300
00:16:28,600 --> 00:16:30,560
sold. 
But in, in revenue terms, just 

301
00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:36,200
kind of think 1/3 gold, 2/3 PGMS
in you know kind of simplified 

302
00:16:36,880 --> 00:16:39,080
terms. 
And what did you guys sort of 

303
00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:41,360
get out of the the call that 
happened? 

304
00:16:42,160 --> 00:16:43,640
The call was really interesting 
Ally. 

305
00:16:43,640 --> 00:16:46,960
So it was two hours long, a big,
a big presentation because there

306
00:16:46,960 --> 00:16:49,680
was a bit to kind of chew on 
what they'd kind of done on an 

307
00:16:49,960 --> 00:16:53,960
operational management balance 
sheet kind of front and then AAQ

308
00:16:53,960 --> 00:16:56,280
and A at the end. 
So the, the features that stood 

309
00:16:56,280 --> 00:17:02,360
out are the the losses at an 
income statement level as well 

310
00:17:02,360 --> 00:17:06,520
as in sort of free cash terms. 
The income statement losses come

311
00:17:06,520 --> 00:17:09,800
broadly off the back of a bunch 
of impairments that they had to 

312
00:17:09,800 --> 00:17:11,640
do. 
That is because like Trev said, 

313
00:17:11,640 --> 00:17:16,599
they're curtailing production in
the US Unfortunately, that also 

314
00:17:16,599 --> 00:17:21,280
leads to roughly 800 job losses 
at in Montana where they have 

315
00:17:21,280 --> 00:17:24,079
their operations. 
And then like I sort of said, 

316
00:17:24,920 --> 00:17:28,240
the the, the sort of underlying 
theme of saying our balance 

317
00:17:28,240 --> 00:17:30,360
sheet is OK. 
You know if you if you do listen

318
00:17:30,360 --> 00:17:33,080
to the call, it might remind you
a little bit of min res out 

319
00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:35,600
there, although there are some 
sort of key differences which 

320
00:17:35,600 --> 00:17:38,520
will kind of hone in when we get
to the more broader Platts 

321
00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:40,600
Palladium market near the end. 
So it's. 

322
00:17:40,600 --> 00:17:44,320
Pretty interesting, right, 
because there was a lot of yeah 

323
00:17:44,800 --> 00:17:47,800
market rhetoric in the lead up 
for this like earnings event. 

324
00:17:47,800 --> 00:17:52,280
And I think in some ways like 
there was an expectation that 

325
00:17:52,280 --> 00:17:55,640
they would, you know, completely
curtail production from the 

326
00:17:55,640 --> 00:17:59,200
Stillwater OPS in Montana there 
they sort of, you know, half 

327
00:17:59,360 --> 00:18:02,760
curtailed them and stock 
basically shut up. 

328
00:18:02,760 --> 00:18:06,720
I think on expectation that 
we've like that that'll, that's 

329
00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:10,800
basically kind of the, the, the,
the bottoming of the, you know, 

330
00:18:10,960 --> 00:18:13,520
Palladium market price sort of 
downturn. 

331
00:18:14,120 --> 00:18:16,040
Yeah. 
And I mean also sort of playing 

332
00:18:16,040 --> 00:18:17,960
in perhaps that's the the 
bottoming of the the 

333
00:18:17,960 --> 00:18:19,560
restructuring that kind of have 
to do. 

334
00:18:19,840 --> 00:18:23,240
I mean it, it sounds like it 
might sort of save money and all

335
00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:25,880
this sort of stuff, but just 
shutting off a mine is expensive

336
00:18:25,880 --> 00:18:27,800
as well, which they kind of 
pointed out, you know, running 

337
00:18:27,800 --> 00:18:29,960
things on care and maintenance 
everything. 

338
00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:31,880
And then there's but they'll. 
Lose the money from there like 

339
00:18:32,080 --> 00:18:34,960
that operation was, yeah. 
Yeah, that they, they were 

340
00:18:34,960 --> 00:18:37,880
losing money. 
So interestingly they talk about

341
00:18:38,040 --> 00:18:40,680
chalking off 200,000 ounces of 2
E production. 

342
00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:43,640
That's about a halving of what 
they're producing out of there 

343
00:18:43,640 --> 00:18:47,280
whilst trying to get the oil in 
sustaining costs down to about 

344
00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:50,680
US 1000, which is not the 
easiest thing when we always 

345
00:18:50,680 --> 00:18:54,480
sort of think of logistics and 
economies of scale in mining. 

346
00:18:54,800 --> 00:18:58,560
On the balance sheet front, they
were talking up seeking 

347
00:18:58,560 --> 00:19:00,920
prepayments. 
That's kind of their their final

348
00:19:00,920 --> 00:19:02,800
piece of looking after the the 
balance sheet. 

349
00:19:02,800 --> 00:19:04,400
So they've done a whole bunch of
other things. 

350
00:19:04,400 --> 00:19:07,760
They've, you know, renegotiated 
their their debt covenants to 

351
00:19:07,760 --> 00:19:09,280
buy them a bit more breathing 
room. 

352
00:19:09,280 --> 00:19:13,480
They've already got $100 million
prepayment for the gold that 

353
00:19:13,480 --> 00:19:16,000
they're going to produce in the 
near term, but they want to get 

354
00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:20,720
this UUS $700 million prepayment
over the line. 

355
00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:24,160
Now the the language around this
is kind of interesting because 

356
00:19:24,160 --> 00:19:27,080
the question came in, aren't you
just kind of giving away your, 

357
00:19:27,080 --> 00:19:29,840
your future upside? 
So the response was that they're

358
00:19:29,840 --> 00:19:34,400
very much focused on, you know, 
settling out streams and 

359
00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:36,360
whatever other sort of 
premayment, prepayment 

360
00:19:36,360 --> 00:19:39,160
structures you can think of for 
their secondary products. 

361
00:19:39,360 --> 00:19:41,480
And they pretty much said 
analysts don't care about 

362
00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:42,920
whatever your secondary product 
is. 

363
00:19:43,160 --> 00:19:46,200
So you may as well just kind of 
prepaid it, which is. 

364
00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:49,880
Then then why did they invest in
lithium and fucking you've? 

365
00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:53,960
Been in that one, Trevor, we'll 
get there. 

366
00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:58,600
So they they looked to really 
address the the equity raise 

367
00:19:58,600 --> 00:20:00,400
concerns. 
You know, this is I guess the 

368
00:20:00,440 --> 00:20:04,080
the min raise kind of comparison
in, in my head again, they 

369
00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:05,840
referenced it plenty in the 
call. 

370
00:20:05,840 --> 00:20:09,440
They referenced it in the 
presentations in the in the half

371
00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:12,160
year docs. 
So they pretty much said the the

372
00:20:12,160 --> 00:20:15,280
perception should now be moot 
that we need to capital raise 

373
00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:17,800
so. 
I'm not sure if it's completely 

374
00:20:17,960 --> 00:20:23,000
done and dusted, but I think 
they have gone a long way to to 

375
00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:26,040
assuring investors by Catalian 
production, I mean, what we 

376
00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:28,440
mentioned here today is a kind 
of almost a drop in the ocean. 

377
00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:31,800
They've done a lot of this over 
2023 in the first half of this 

378
00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:36,520
year already. 
So lithium Trav, the the Calibre

379
00:20:36,520 --> 00:20:39,400
lithium project is 1. 
I think you might be referencing

380
00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:42,400
they got €500 million in 
financing for this. 

381
00:20:42,400 --> 00:20:45,640
I want first production in 2026.
It's up in in Finland. 

382
00:20:46,360 --> 00:20:50,480
I mean, putting aside for a 
moment the idea that they've got

383
00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:54,520
lithium in amongst the portfolio
with zinc and undeveloped 

384
00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:59,720
uranium and copper project PGMS,
goldmine in the US in South 

385
00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:03,840
Africa, that they're very 
adamant that with regional 

386
00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:05,920
managers they can manage this 
all. 

387
00:21:06,360 --> 00:21:10,000
But I kind of think for, you 
know, poor old investors, it's a

388
00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:11,840
bit too much to to kind of take 
on. 

389
00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:14,080
There's stuff kind of 
everywhere. 

390
00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:19,160
I'm very concerned that, you 
know, hydroxide production who 

391
00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:24,040
has done that well in the in the
last few years of the kind of 

392
00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:28,720
western miners. 
I'm sorry, no one really. 

393
00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:30,040
I just, I just think it's very 
hard. 

394
00:21:30,040 --> 00:21:31,880
I think that could be a 
potential money sink. 

395
00:21:32,280 --> 00:21:34,640
They've got rhyolite Ridge eye 
knees project. 

396
00:21:34,800 --> 00:21:40,440
That was, you know, a big sort 
of announcement in back in 2021.

397
00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:43,680
A new century as well. 
Yeah. 

398
00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:46,720
There has been some sort of 
confusing, Yeah, there's been 

399
00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:49,400
some confusing, confusing 
acquisitions, right? 

400
00:21:49,880 --> 00:21:54,360
Yeah, yeah, real confusing 
capital allocation at certain 

401
00:21:54,360 --> 00:21:58,560
points, but yeah, I actually 
think, I think when, you know, 

402
00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:00,760
Once Upon a time this was a gold
company, it was a buying a gold 

403
00:22:00,760 --> 00:22:05,600
and yeah, they acquired the PGM 
business in South Africa, which 

404
00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:07,840
was like a phenomenal 
acquisition. 

405
00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:12,400
Actually I kind of delivered 
some brilliant free cash flow, 

406
00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:17,280
especially especially during 
the, the big PGM kind of spike 

407
00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:21,240
that happened in kind of 
2021-2022 around that Russia, 

408
00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:25,440
Ukraine invasion period. 
And it, it was so like 

409
00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:30,280
remarkable the free cash flow 
that came in that like if you, 

410
00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:35,360
if you look at Sibanya's market 
cap today in U.S. dollars, it's 

411
00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:41,720
about 2.5 billion US in in 
market, sorry, 2.7 billion U.S. 

412
00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:45,240
market cap today. 
Well, in 2021 financial year, 

413
00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:49,680
Subarnier generated 3.4 billion 
operating cash flow, which kind 

414
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:52,360
of converted to US 2.5 billion 
in unlevered free cash flow. 

415
00:22:52,360 --> 00:22:56,760
So like that's the kind of 
capability the business has to, 

416
00:22:56,760 --> 00:23:00,280
you know, spit out free cash 
flow in the good times. 

417
00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:03,360
But when you Chuck in the debt 
and the pretty average capital 

418
00:23:03,360 --> 00:23:06,840
allocation that that's sort of, 
you know, happened since it 

419
00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:09,960
probably explains some of the 
substantial selling off the 

420
00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:12,920
stock has had, but also the 
interesting kind of part to some

421
00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:15,080
some investors. 
So we're really trying to, you 

422
00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:18,120
know, get, get, get talk if 
they're, if they're predicting a

423
00:23:18,120 --> 00:23:20,440
turn around too. 
Yeah. 

424
00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:25,720
I mean, they were a $15 billion 
market cap companies a few years

425
00:23:25,720 --> 00:23:26,600
ago. 
It's kind of wild. 

426
00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:28,600
And it is interesting what you 
kind of touched on there, Trav, 

427
00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:30,080
how the company kind of came 
together. 

428
00:23:30,360 --> 00:23:34,600
You got the PGM acquisitions and
I think 2016 and then Stillwater

429
00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:37,240
2017. 
And you know, a few years later,

430
00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:40,480
you know, after you've had a few
years of just Ripper cash flows,

431
00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:43,360
you end up with a good bit of it
just being spent on all these 

432
00:23:43,360 --> 00:23:46,040
kind of random things. 
But I mean, at the end of the 

433
00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:48,000
day, right now, they're a 
company that is, you know, 

434
00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:52,080
financially leveraged and 
operationally leveraged to PGMS 

435
00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:53,800
and gold. 
That's where they are kind of 

436
00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:55,120
right now. 
They're super beaten up. 

437
00:23:55,560 --> 00:24:00,600
They've got a bit of optionality
slash cash sinks in, in lithium 

438
00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:03,600
and uranium. 
But it's a it's an interesting 

439
00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:08,840
company to kind of look at to, 
to round out on the, I mean to 

440
00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:11,240
kind of find our way into what's
happened in Palladium and Platts

441
00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:13,960
markets rather. 
It was interesting to note that 

442
00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:18,280
straight away on the back of 
them having to unfortunately lay

443
00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:23,680
off people in Montana, you see 
these senators from Matana jump 

444
00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:28,480
on and say, hey, we should ban 
all imports into the US of 

445
00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:31,520
Palladium. 
And then you got the the company

446
00:24:31,520 --> 00:24:35,280
kind of playing into this saying
Italy's Russia is inundating the

447
00:24:35,280 --> 00:24:40,240
Palladium market to tank its 
prices and the responsible and 

448
00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:44,760
sustainable mining and metals 
processing that Sibanye does is 

449
00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:48,160
just going to be much, much more
expensive than Russian 

450
00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:50,120
competition. 
So it's eerily similar to what 

451
00:24:50,120 --> 00:24:53,880
we spoke about about six months 
ago in the nickel market, right?

452
00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:59,600
Yeah, it's funny, right? 
Because there's this like line 

453
00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:04,400
of argument, they often say the,
the big talking points are that 

454
00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:07,480
there's no, there's no like this
is the, the only strategic kind 

455
00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:11,680
of production of PGMS outside of
Russia and South Africa. 

456
00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:13,400
That's like a big talking point,
right? 

457
00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:16,680
But I'm not sure that's right. 
I'm pretty sure there's a lot 

458
00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:20,440
that comes out of Zimbabwe. 
They're forgetting the good 

459
00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:24,040
people of Zimbabwe. 
No, you're spot on. 

460
00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:26,840
I do. 
I, I see where they're coming 

461
00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:29,200
from. 
Although if I, I just sort of 

462
00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:32,560
thought, you know, history kind 
of teaches us that putting these

463
00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:36,960
bands and stuff just isn't a, a 
kind of long term solution. 

464
00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:40,120
You know, maybe it kind of helps
people in, in the short term. 

465
00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:44,160
And I, you know, I fully 
appreciate the, the difficulties

466
00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:45,760
there. 
But I think there's got to be 

467
00:25:45,760 --> 00:25:48,400
some other sort of solutions and
some thinking that kind of needs

468
00:25:48,400 --> 00:25:54,160
to be done to build a bit more 
resiliency into the into the 

469
00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:57,640
supply chain as opposed to just 
once people have already been 

470
00:25:57,640 --> 00:25:59,680
laid off banning production. 
I think it's. 

471
00:25:59,880 --> 00:26:01,520
It's not too late then, isn't 
it? 

472
00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:04,880
Yeah, Yeah. 
So I don't think it's the kind 

473
00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:07,800
of right way, but it's a 
difficult kind of situation. 

474
00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:10,880
I think it's worth just a quick 
chat as well about the 

475
00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:14,440
restructuring and maybe just 
sharing a couple of comments 

476
00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:16,720
whether we think they're kind of
done given everything that's 

477
00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:18,600
gone on the last year and a 
half. 

478
00:26:18,600 --> 00:26:22,480
So we spoke about all the assets
they've accumulated over the 

479
00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:26,040
past few years and I wonder if 
it's kind of worth selling or 

480
00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:29,400
spinning any of the other 
remaining kind of assets out to 

481
00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:31,520
get a more simplified kind of 
structure. 

482
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:34,240
The company was, you know, 
uranium was the one that they 

483
00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:35,880
said, yeah, we're happy to kind 
of sell that. 

484
00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:39,640
But the rest they said they kind
of want to hold on to or maybe 

485
00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:43,720
they're not able to sell, but 
uranium assets, Centuries Inc, 

486
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:48,200
Mount Lyell, Gallican, that's 
this sort of pecan nickel 

487
00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:52,920
refinery in France, Rhylite 
Ridge, Calibre, the the lithium 

488
00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:54,920
project. 
And then you've of course got 

489
00:26:55,320 --> 00:26:58,040
South Africa and USPGMS and 
gold. 

490
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:00,440
I think there's just a bit too 
much in there, right? 

491
00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:05,120
Like so if you if you got rid of
century zinc and Mount Lyell, so

492
00:27:05,120 --> 00:27:08,760
they they picked both of them up
by acquiring century now, Yep, I

493
00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:12,920
think there's no way in hell 
that they would be able to sell 

494
00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:15,560
that those assets for what they 
they paid for it. 

495
00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:19,240
And it just requires like a bit 
of, you know, a bit of eating 

496
00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:22,760
someone's going to eat their own
shorts, you know, to because of 

497
00:27:22,760 --> 00:27:24,480
those acquisitions at the price 
they did. 

498
00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:27,200
And then yeah, yeah. 
The other ones I'm not sure of 

499
00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:28,560
maybe what are you going to get 
for them? 

500
00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:31,920
Like probably, probably like, 
well, yeah, every last dollar 

501
00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:34,600
kind of helps. 
But if, if they think that their

502
00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:38,120
their cash flow is OK and 
they'll see it through. 

503
00:27:38,120 --> 00:27:42,520
And especially if these PGM 
prices kind of re rebound 

504
00:27:42,520 --> 00:27:45,040
relatively quickly here, it'll 
probably just go to the back 

505
00:27:45,040 --> 00:27:47,720
burner. 
Yeah, I, I think you're right. 

506
00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:49,960
I'm, I'm kind of curious about 
how much of their sort of 

507
00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:54,320
capacity, it's kind of taken up 
the, you know, calibre's the one

508
00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:56,800
that's requires a, a fair bit of
cash. 

509
00:27:56,800 --> 00:28:01,080
There's €300 million earmarked 
for that one for this year. 

510
00:28:01,080 --> 00:28:04,360
But they've got a a sort of 
green funding line that as they 

511
00:28:04,360 --> 00:28:07,520
call it to, to see them through 
on that one. 

512
00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:10,280
But I can see, you know, I don't
think they're really going to 

513
00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:12,920
get rid of anything else. 
That uranium asset is in South 

514
00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:15,080
Africa. 
So even that one I think might 

515
00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:18,200
be quite hard to to kind of pass
on or sell. 

516
00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:23,200
I just, yeah. 
Yeah, I sort of agree with you 

517
00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:28,720
JD, as far as you know that that
there's a lot of in amongst 

518
00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:31,720
their main operations and then 
all the ones that you've just 

519
00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:34,520
listed there. 
Like you know, how can you 

520
00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:38,480
spread all your not just from a 
money perspective, but as far as

521
00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:42,120
people, resources, IP spreading 
across all of these different 

522
00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:43,520
projects. 
Like what's actually more 

523
00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:48,520
important where, where's the 
best use of time and human 

524
00:28:48,520 --> 00:28:51,920
capital? 
Where is that best spent? 

525
00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:55,400
Now there was one more bit that 
we have to quickly quote from 

526
00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:58,240
from the call you pointed this 
one out I. 

527
00:28:58,320 --> 00:28:59,600
Did want to play this one. 
Yeah. 

528
00:28:59,960 --> 00:29:04,880
I also read much around the 
issue, issues of diversity with 

529
00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:09,080
suggestions that if you go work,
you go broke and, and again, I 

530
00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:12,360
think that's such nonsense. 
We will continue to drive 

531
00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:16,800
inclusivity, diversity and 
belonging as we believe it 

532
00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:21,160
creates a competitive advantage 
for a company like ourselves. 

533
00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:25,560
Go away, go broke. 
What do you reckon, Janie? 

534
00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:31,480
I do love that it got to mention
it's pretty funny, yeah. 

535
00:29:31,480 --> 00:29:33,400
I mean. 
Looking they do go broke now 

536
00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:37,560
though. 
That would be particularly bad. 

537
00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:39,880
Although, I mean, you know, on 
a, on a kind of serious note, 

538
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:44,400
looking into Sibanye's safety 
record, it is, you know, pretty,

539
00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:46,680
pretty awful reading. 
So there's definitely stuff on 

540
00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:49,240
that front that needs to be 
addressed. 

541
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:51,640
Like unfortunately, a couple of 
the the miners out there. 

542
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:54,000
Hey, oh. 
Mate, they're like these South 

543
00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:56,520
African PGM miners are 
particularly like atrocious on 

544
00:29:56,520 --> 00:29:57,880
the safety front. 
But I think a lot of that's to 

545
00:29:57,880 --> 00:30:02,680
do with the, the, the union 
workforce and all that sort of 

546
00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:05,520
stuff out that way. 
But yeah, yeah, this whole like 

547
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:09,480
topic of, you know, mining 
companies going woke is, yeah, 

548
00:30:09,720 --> 00:30:14,000
big, a big theme out there. 
A lot of discussion, a lot of 

549
00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:17,480
like rediscussion around DI kind
of policies that have been 

550
00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:19,240
adopted by some of the, you 
know, the largest mining 

551
00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:22,000
companies out there and and 
question marks on their 

552
00:30:22,000 --> 00:30:23,920
effectiveness. 
And then, you know, on the other

553
00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:27,720
side, you're going to have the, 
the like, you know, the boards 

554
00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:29,920
and CEOs defending them like you
see, you see here. 

555
00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:33,000
Do you think, yeah, the 
diversity and inclusivity was 

556
00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:35,200
around commodities 'cause it 
feels like they're trying to 

557
00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:38,840
include everybody commodity in 
the in the company. 

558
00:30:38,840 --> 00:30:40,920
Like that's the way I took to 
interpret it. 

559
00:30:40,920 --> 00:30:41,680
Like Jesus. 
Christ. 

560
00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:46,640
Well played, well played. 
So, so why did the PGMS price 

561
00:30:47,240 --> 00:30:50,800
surge so recently, JD, after 
this, you know, sort of 

562
00:30:50,800 --> 00:30:52,800
production cuts that Sabania put
out? 

563
00:30:53,640 --> 00:30:56,320
Well, this is the the kind of 
point that really perked up our 

564
00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:57,360
interest. 
There's a, there's a few 

565
00:30:57,360 --> 00:31:00,320
different kind of factors at 
play, but one of them was 

566
00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:05,040
undoubtedly Putin's comments 
that we touched on on Thursday 

567
00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:09,520
of last week. 
So you saw a good kick up in on 

568
00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:14,360
Thursday, on Friday as well. 
Obviously we mentioned Sibanye 

569
00:31:14,360 --> 00:31:16,360
jumping up 11% on the back of 
it. 

570
00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:19,640
They obviously curtailed a bit. 
It all kind of plays into it 

571
00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:22,440
more broadly. 
You've got stocks that have been

572
00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:26,840
built up and they're now kind of
unwinding and stuff. 

573
00:31:27,840 --> 00:31:31,560
And I think there's a, another 
feature of the, the Palladium 

574
00:31:31,560 --> 00:31:34,520
market specifically, not not as 
prominent in the Platts market, 

575
00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:38,680
but there is a huge like a 
record short position out there.

576
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:40,400
Now. 
If you think back to what we 

577
00:31:40,400 --> 00:31:43,200
spoke about in the lithium 
market last week, it just makes 

578
00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:45,240
those, those turnarounds quite 
jumpy. 

579
00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:48,760
When you have a a large short 
interest in the stock, you kind 

580
00:31:48,760 --> 00:31:51,920
of have covering and all these 
things which lead it a bit, you 

581
00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:55,840
know a bit sprung or tightly 
wound to sort of spring to the 

582
00:31:55,840 --> 00:32:01,640
upside when it does kind of go. 
There was also a an interesting 

583
00:32:01,640 --> 00:32:04,840
question in talking about like 
where does Platts, where does 

584
00:32:04,840 --> 00:32:08,120
Palladium kind of go? 
And to be clear, like Sebania 

585
00:32:08,120 --> 00:32:11,000
talk about very much like a A2 E
way of thinking because they 

586
00:32:11,480 --> 00:32:14,040
think firmly that Platts and 
Palladium are interchangeable. 

587
00:32:14,360 --> 00:32:16,400
The question was relating to to 
loading. 

588
00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:19,600
What this kind of means is how 
much of either, you know, the 

589
00:32:19,600 --> 00:32:23,120
two E is required in the hybrid 
vehicles going forward. 

590
00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:27,160
And the question was kind of 
angled at has PGM demand been 

591
00:32:27,160 --> 00:32:30,360
overstated because the Chinese 
have developed new technology 

592
00:32:30,360 --> 00:32:34,800
where they don't quite need as 
much PGMS in a hybrid or an ICE 

593
00:32:35,560 --> 00:32:38,040
vehicle. 
And you know, Sibanya battered 

594
00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:42,440
the the question off quite well.
They kind of said that they are 

595
00:32:42,440 --> 00:32:46,920
totally aware of this and they 
have forecast into their models 

596
00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:52,040
these reduced amounts of PGMS 
that are needed in the in the 

597
00:32:52,040 --> 00:32:53,200
new cars. 
But I thought that was a 

598
00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:56,120
different way of thinking about 
where this market could 

599
00:32:56,120 --> 00:32:58,360
potentially go and who's kind of
modelling it, right? 

600
00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:03,600
But I remember it's been a 
while, but I remember back, back

601
00:33:03,600 --> 00:33:07,920
when I was at Macquarie there 
there's this like commodities, I

602
00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:11,000
remember what it's called, but 
like this kind of big 

603
00:33:11,000 --> 00:33:13,160
commodities write up and like 
the commodity strategists would 

604
00:33:13,440 --> 00:33:15,800
would put out their thought 
pieces on like all of the 

605
00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:17,760
commodities and which one are 
five year coming? 

606
00:33:17,760 --> 00:33:20,040
If it was a five year or ten 
year outlook, they were doing a 

607
00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:22,520
10 year outlook. 
They were most like bullish on 

608
00:33:22,520 --> 00:33:25,080
and most bearish on. 
And I remember clearly most 

609
00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:28,960
bullish was carbon of all 
commodities, most bearish 

610
00:33:29,280 --> 00:33:31,120
Palladium. 
Yeah, right. 

611
00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:34,200
So yeah, in terms of like sort. 
Of 2022 time. 

612
00:33:34,600 --> 00:33:39,600
Yeah, this, this was, this was 
like, yeah, like 2022 when this 

613
00:33:39,600 --> 00:33:41,840
way. 
But yeah, I just, yeah, things 

614
00:33:41,840 --> 00:33:46,840
have changed a little bit and 
sometimes you kind of hit the 

615
00:33:46,840 --> 00:33:48,400
Contra. 
Yeah. 

616
00:33:48,400 --> 00:33:51,800
Well, I just think that the, you
know, taking the contrarian view

617
00:33:51,800 --> 00:33:53,480
is where the opportunity kind of
lies. 

618
00:33:53,760 --> 00:33:55,120
And that's not to say it's 
right. 

619
00:33:55,440 --> 00:33:57,880
I just think that's the the 
place where you kind of need to 

620
00:33:57,880 --> 00:34:03,360
look. 
Mate, I'd love to see if you're 

621
00:34:03,360 --> 00:34:05,320
you want to be a contrarian in 
this market which you've 

622
00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:09,199
historically called too hard. 
Definitely China. 

623
00:34:09,199 --> 00:34:10,880
Rare earths, eh? 
Rare earths in general. 

624
00:34:10,880 --> 00:34:13,800
Yeah, I just want to give this 
story a quick will, mostly 

625
00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:19,000
because I I'm trying to get 
people to see if they'll send in

626
00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:21,199
information that they know about
it because I've found it 

627
00:34:21,199 --> 00:34:23,679
particularly hard to get 
information on this story. 

628
00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:26,040
But I saw this this headline, I 
think it was the bottom of the 

629
00:34:26,040 --> 00:34:27,800
UBS note. 
I had to do some Googling to 

630
00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:30,480
even substantiate the story 
before I put a link in the 

631
00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:33,360
director special this morning. 
So there's this news from from 

632
00:34:33,639 --> 00:34:37,880
China that China Rare Earth 
Group has had an exploration 

633
00:34:37,880 --> 00:34:40,280
breakthrough and that would 
result in it producing an 

634
00:34:40,280 --> 00:34:45,440
additional 5 million tonnes of 
rare earth oxides. 5 million 

635
00:34:45,440 --> 00:34:48,120
tonnes is a lot in that market. 
I don't know, I assume it can't 

636
00:34:48,120 --> 00:34:49,880
be paramount, but an exploration
breakthrough. 

637
00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:53,520
Look, So what interesting 
wording it's, it's, I mean, I'm 

638
00:34:53,560 --> 00:34:57,360
sure it's been translated, but 
so yeah, my first thoughts too. 

639
00:34:58,640 --> 00:35:00,400
Just take it all with with a bit
of a. 

640
00:35:01,000 --> 00:35:03,680
It's full of salt. 
Some little Chinese whispers to 

641
00:35:03,680 --> 00:35:05,840
this one so why is it 
interesting There's a few 

642
00:35:05,840 --> 00:35:08,960
reasons right first of all, let 
me just give a bit of context 

643
00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:11,680
about this state owned 
enterprise trying to rare earth 

644
00:35:11,680 --> 00:35:14,640
group from what I can find 
online, this state owned entity 

645
00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:17,440
actually formed because China 
merged sort of these three 

646
00:35:17,440 --> 00:35:22,800
separate state owned entities in
late 2021 to in quotation marks 

647
00:35:22,800 --> 00:35:24,680
increased pricing power and 
efficiency. 

648
00:35:25,240 --> 00:35:28,880
So forget antitrust I suppose, 
because it's OK if you're just 

649
00:35:28,880 --> 00:35:31,240
making W more anti competitive 
that's OK. 

650
00:35:31,240 --> 00:35:37,360
I I I read some reports that 
this kind of like mega code of 

651
00:35:37,400 --> 00:35:39,720
of rare earth production sort of
just captured just you know 

652
00:35:39,760 --> 00:35:42,440
stupid majority of heavy rare 
earths. 

653
00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:45,960
So the first question, what the 
hell is an exploration 

654
00:35:46,080 --> 00:35:49,000
breakthrough that can like 
definitively lead to a 

655
00:35:49,000 --> 00:35:52,280
quantifiable increase in 
production? 

656
00:35:52,280 --> 00:35:53,640
Like what does that, what does 
that even mean? 

657
00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:56,040
It seems pretty wild to to state
that, right? 

658
00:35:56,040 --> 00:35:59,840
What do you what do you think? 
I think that is mixed in 

659
00:35:59,840 --> 00:36:02,800
translation to be honest, and 
I'd be curious what was meant by

660
00:36:02,800 --> 00:36:04,120
the writer. 
Yeah. 

661
00:36:04,120 --> 00:36:08,640
And I mean, if there's going to 
be a breakthrough that leads in 

662
00:36:09,200 --> 00:36:11,640
to more production, I would have
thought that might have been 

663
00:36:11,640 --> 00:36:15,960
more the processing part of the 
supply chain to sort of get 

664
00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:19,760
more, you know, out of the rock.
But you know, put simply, I'm 

665
00:36:19,760 --> 00:36:24,840
not sure how doing that front 
end, but I'm just yeah, I'm, I'm

666
00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:25,400
confused. 
I. 

667
00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:28,000
Don't mean unless it's an actual
discovery, yeah. 

668
00:36:28,120 --> 00:36:30,680
Yeah, unless it's. 
But yeah, it must be or or 

669
00:36:30,680 --> 00:36:33,080
unless it's a discovery. 
That's all very possible, but 

670
00:36:33,080 --> 00:36:36,720
then I had the thought could 
China's state owned enterprise 

671
00:36:36,720 --> 00:36:40,720
potentially have just discovered
verifies AI capability? 

672
00:36:40,720 --> 00:36:43,120
Because I think it's possible, 
right? 

673
00:36:43,120 --> 00:36:46,760
I actually, I actually put the 
question to rock, which is if 

674
00:36:46,760 --> 00:36:49,560
you didn't know, is the the AI 
chat insider Twitter. 

675
00:36:50,160 --> 00:36:56,320
And yes, I used AI to ask about 
AI and, and look like rock stood

676
00:36:56,320 --> 00:36:58,040
back from giving me a, a 
definitive answer. 

677
00:36:58,040 --> 00:37:01,200
But I said is verify an 
expiration breakthrough for 

678
00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:04,080
China and I'll just, I'll read 
out this little bit of response.

679
00:37:04,520 --> 00:37:08,680
Rock says Verify AI focuses on 
using AI for mineral expiration,

680
00:37:08,680 --> 00:37:10,440
which could potentially 
revolutionise how mineral 

681
00:37:10,440 --> 00:37:13,760
deposits are identified and 
explored China or globally. 

682
00:37:13,840 --> 00:37:17,360
Its technology aims to integrate
and analyse vast amounts of 

683
00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:19,880
geological data to pinpoint 
prospective mineral deposits 

684
00:37:19,880 --> 00:37:22,000
with greater accuracy than 
traditional methods. 

685
00:37:22,240 --> 00:37:24,280
This could be considered a 
technological breakthrough in 

686
00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:26,600
exploration methodology. 
But kind of, you know, stood 

687
00:37:26,600 --> 00:37:28,720
back from definitively answering
my question. 

688
00:37:28,720 --> 00:37:32,920
But, you know, I, I must say 
I'm, I'm pretty suspicious that 

689
00:37:32,920 --> 00:37:35,120
this is actually the, the real 
explanation for China's 

690
00:37:35,120 --> 00:37:37,720
exploration breakthrough now. 
And last I heard, there's a fat 

691
00:37:37,720 --> 00:37:40,800
waste waiting list for 
verifiers, AI technology. 

692
00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:43,240
But the, the 3D models that help
you communicate, yeah, your 

693
00:37:43,240 --> 00:37:45,080
deposit, they've been 
gangbusters. 

694
00:37:45,080 --> 00:37:48,720
And apparently there were 47 of 
them on display at 47 Beaver 

695
00:37:48,720 --> 00:37:50,320
Creek last week. 
They're they're also on the 

696
00:37:50,320 --> 00:37:53,000
ground at Denver Gold Forum too,
and they're even an AIMIC 

697
00:37:53,000 --> 00:37:54,360
member. 
So getting amongst the other 

698
00:37:54,400 --> 00:37:56,680
mining community. 
So hit up grant to verify.com or

699
00:37:56,680 --> 00:37:59,480
Nathan at verify.com. 
Nathan's Perth based. 

700
00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:01,680
So righto. 
Anyway, back to back to the rare

701
00:38:01,680 --> 00:38:03,240
earths in China. 
Guys. 

702
00:38:04,280 --> 00:38:07,720
Last time we, we had a chin wag 
on the topic of of rare earths. 

703
00:38:08,040 --> 00:38:10,080
I think we pointed to what 
looked like it could be, you 

704
00:38:10,240 --> 00:38:13,440
know, bottoming out of the, the 
NDPR prices. 

705
00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:15,840
In fact, the state owned 
enterprise China Northern Rare 

706
00:38:15,840 --> 00:38:20,320
Earth actually recently raised 
their list prices by 5% as their

707
00:38:20,360 --> 00:38:21,960
you know second quarter earnings
were zilch. 

708
00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:27,120
And that triggered basically 
these magnet makers to rush 

709
00:38:27,120 --> 00:38:30,840
their seasonal restocking 
apparently which sent like NDPR 

710
00:38:30,840 --> 00:38:34,680
spot prices to $62.00 US per 
kilogramme last week. 

711
00:38:35,120 --> 00:38:39,240
And to China Northern Rare Earth
they they raised their list 

712
00:38:39,240 --> 00:38:42,160
prices, magnet producers flare 
to restock NDPR spot price 

713
00:38:42,160 --> 00:38:44,520
climbs. 
And now magically, China 

714
00:38:44,520 --> 00:38:46,280
Northern Rare Earth have had an 
exploration breakthrough 

715
00:38:46,280 --> 00:38:49,600
allowing them to produce 5 
million tonnes more oxide. 

716
00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:52,040
Call me a conspiracy theorist on
the timing of it all. 

717
00:38:54,280 --> 00:38:58,160
Might have to. 
And look, throw this one into 

718
00:38:58,160 --> 00:39:00,560
the timing mix. 
Northern Minerals, the listed 

719
00:39:00,560 --> 00:39:03,680
hairy, heavy rare earth 
developer on the ASXER. 

720
00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:06,120
They've been the subject of a 
lot of, you know, geopolitical 

721
00:39:06,120 --> 00:39:08,040
archibaldy. 
They raised a whopping $43 

722
00:39:08,080 --> 00:39:13,240
million Australian via 2 tranche
placement just announced the 

723
00:39:13,240 --> 00:39:16,480
details today. 
That's about a third of its free

724
00:39:16,480 --> 00:39:18,760
raise market cap, which is 
chunky. 

725
00:39:19,240 --> 00:39:23,640
And in a raise where I look at 
the the uses of funds in the 

726
00:39:23,640 --> 00:39:28,960
raise and mate how's this $23.5 
million is in that use of funds 

727
00:39:28,960 --> 00:39:31,680
table for working capital site 
and corporate costs? 

728
00:39:31,680 --> 00:39:35,000
Nah, that's more than half. 
Yeah. 

729
00:39:35,320 --> 00:39:36,520
What? 
No, you can't. 

730
00:39:36,920 --> 00:39:40,040
Yeah, no matter how you cut it, 
it seems bizarre. 

731
00:39:41,200 --> 00:39:44,120
So look, something strange is 
going on in the in the rare 

732
00:39:44,120 --> 00:39:46,920
earth market right now. 
You can you can connect a few 

733
00:39:46,920 --> 00:39:49,200
dots and come up with some 
theories, but I'll let the money

734
00:39:49,200 --> 00:39:52,040
miners do that themselves. 
And if you happen to have some 

735
00:39:52,040 --> 00:39:56,000
Intel, end it in. 
Very curious, how do you how do 

736
00:39:56,000 --> 00:39:58,760
you listen to something like 
that and not just think it stays

737
00:39:58,760 --> 00:40:03,000
in the too hard basket? 
I'm with you, JD. 

738
00:40:03,280 --> 00:40:04,800
Once Upon a time, uranium was 
too hard. 

739
00:40:08,520 --> 00:40:11,000
Uranium, you can do a bit of 
digging it, it just doesn't have

740
00:40:11,000 --> 00:40:15,560
that monopolistic, you know, 
Chinese grip all over it. 

741
00:40:15,560 --> 00:40:18,880
It's obviously concentrated in, 
in some markets and you know, 

742
00:40:19,120 --> 00:40:21,680
with regard to where uranium 
comes from and where things 

743
00:40:21,680 --> 00:40:24,600
happen. 
But I I don't know how you can 

744
00:40:24,600 --> 00:40:26,880
be filled with confidence 
listening to that, even if there

745
00:40:26,880 --> 00:40:31,080
was a conspiratorial tone. 
But this? 

746
00:40:31,080 --> 00:40:34,640
Is why I like gold. 
JD Not in a too hard basket. 

747
00:40:34,680 --> 00:40:36,920
Back, back to gold. 
Let's go to Denver, Ali. 

748
00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:39,360
Oh, sorry. 
Honestly, this has been quite 

749
00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:42,920
the week. 
I mean, but for LE GS say I mean

750
00:40:42,920 --> 00:40:47,880
like gold is at record highs. 
Bloody Oscar piastres run the F1

751
00:40:48,200 --> 00:40:51,640
GPA over the weekend like it's 
it's just been a great start to 

752
00:40:51,640 --> 00:40:54,240
the week. 
So and what a week literally to 

753
00:40:54,240 --> 00:40:57,240
kick off the world's oldest and 
largest precious metals 

754
00:40:57,240 --> 00:40:59,680
conference. 
So this is the Denver gold forum

755
00:40:59,680 --> 00:41:04,600
in Colorado. 
So as, as we said, sort of, you 

756
00:41:04,600 --> 00:41:07,520
know, gold prices hit bloody 
record highs over the weekend. 

757
00:41:07,520 --> 00:41:11,800
Gold equities are on a tear. 
So the the G DX, which is 

758
00:41:12,120 --> 00:41:18,600
basically a VANIC gold ETF is up
9%, then the GDXJ up 40% in the 

759
00:41:18,600 --> 00:41:20,360
last five days. 
Deals. 

760
00:41:20,360 --> 00:41:22,440
More importantly, I think the 
the L e.g. 

761
00:41:22,440 --> 00:41:25,560
CETF must be great. 
She's doing all right. 

762
00:41:27,120 --> 00:41:29,680
And then you know this this. 
Is bumping up off a low base. 

763
00:41:29,720 --> 00:41:32,880
Oh yeah. 
Yes, yeah, that, that is the 

764
00:41:32,880 --> 00:41:34,360
caveat that needs to be made 
there. 

765
00:41:34,360 --> 00:41:38,360
Just just a lot of talk and 
buddy, you know, deals are being

766
00:41:38,360 --> 00:41:40,600
done left front and centre. 
So, you know, we had great Land 

767
00:41:40,600 --> 00:41:44,120
and Telfer last week, Anglo Gold
and Cinnamon last week, 

768
00:41:44,120 --> 00:41:46,400
Goldfields and a Cisco not too 
much earlier than that. 

769
00:41:46,400 --> 00:41:49,840
You know, Perseus getting into 
predictive, you know, it's all 

770
00:41:49,840 --> 00:41:51,960
happening. 
Great time to be a gold ball. 

771
00:41:52,880 --> 00:41:55,960
I was almost tempted to join our
our favourite gold price 

772
00:41:56,200 --> 00:41:59,360
reporters on LinkedIn, Simon 
Lawson and Alex Scanlon, but I 

773
00:41:59,360 --> 00:42:01,400
thought I'd best leave that to 
the experts. 

774
00:42:02,480 --> 00:42:05,960
So the conference actually 
officially kicks off later our 

775
00:42:05,960 --> 00:42:09,360
time tonight. 
And I thought, you know what, 

776
00:42:09,440 --> 00:42:12,320
where, where is this bloody 
hotel that they have this 

777
00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:14,360
conference? 
And look at this, this is the 

778
00:42:14,360 --> 00:42:18,040
Broadmoor Hotel in Colorado 
Springs where the, the, the 

779
00:42:18,040 --> 00:42:19,480
Denver Gulf War is all 
happening. 

780
00:42:19,720 --> 00:42:22,960
Look at that. 
Stunning, that is. 

781
00:42:22,960 --> 00:42:26,600
Just gorgeous. 
Straight out of like Succession 

782
00:42:26,600 --> 00:42:28,320
or something. 
Oh, I actually love that. 

783
00:42:28,720 --> 00:42:30,040
Great. 
Place to get a lot of work done.

784
00:42:30,200 --> 00:42:32,400
Oh yeah, lots of work, JD. 
Good place. 

785
00:42:32,400 --> 00:42:37,240
To spend shareholder money. 
Look at it but so. 

786
00:42:37,760 --> 00:42:39,560
You've been to the place where 
this is what you're funding, 

787
00:42:39,680 --> 00:42:41,600
yeah. 
Have a look here. 

788
00:42:41,600 --> 00:42:44,760
Could you investors don't forget
that picture? 

789
00:42:45,760 --> 00:42:49,760
But no, look, there's already 
been some news flow coming out 

790
00:42:49,760 --> 00:42:52,920
in and around the conference. 
So Endeavour mining commercial 

791
00:42:52,920 --> 00:42:57,240
production at their bikes 
expansion and La Figuay growth 

792
00:42:57,240 --> 00:42:59,640
projects. 
Apologies for sort of announce 

793
00:42:59,640 --> 00:43:03,960
it incorrectly and West Gold put
out the FY25 guidance and some 

794
00:43:04,200 --> 00:43:07,440
you know reserve resources 
updates and is used as well as 

795
00:43:07,440 --> 00:43:10,320
the usual Schmidt, you know 
corporate comments preso so. 

796
00:43:10,760 --> 00:43:12,920
And the exploration target, Ali?
Forget. 

797
00:43:12,960 --> 00:43:14,520
Yeah, sorry. 
Don't forget the exploration 

798
00:43:14,520 --> 00:43:18,160
target as well. 
So no super keen to say what are

799
00:43:18,160 --> 00:43:21,360
the now that the conference sort
of officially kicking off later 

800
00:43:21,360 --> 00:43:24,360
tonight, what are the news flows
sort of comes out in the next 

801
00:43:24,360 --> 00:43:28,040
few days and we'll be certainly 
keeping our eyes healed. 

802
00:43:28,400 --> 00:43:30,520
Well, you know, you're an ASX 
company. 

803
00:43:30,520 --> 00:43:32,360
Yep. 
You're supposed to not time your

804
00:43:32,360 --> 00:43:35,840
news flow with a conference. 
You you've got a an obligation 

805
00:43:35,880 --> 00:43:39,280
to disclose anything material. 
As it becomes material, it's 

806
00:43:39,800 --> 00:43:40,920
continuous. 
Like that? 

807
00:43:42,240 --> 00:43:43,720
It's it's all part of the 
process. 

808
00:43:44,920 --> 00:43:48,480
At least there's A1 commodity 
out there at least getting a bit

809
00:43:48,480 --> 00:43:51,160
of love. 
It's been pretty, pretty bare 

810
00:43:51,160 --> 00:43:54,920
and the the kind of sentiment's 
been a bit beaten up across the 

811
00:43:55,360 --> 00:43:58,680
across the space, but came to 
have a few a few chats with 

812
00:43:58,680 --> 00:44:01,920
people from from China and the 
ones looking at the industrial 

813
00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:04,960
metals in the in the coming 
weeks to get a a bit more of a 

814
00:44:04,960 --> 00:44:07,320
better feel for everything going
on out there. 

815
00:44:07,320 --> 00:44:08,960
Hey. 
Absolutely. 

816
00:44:09,360 --> 00:44:11,400
All right, let's wrap it up 
there guys. 

817
00:44:11,920 --> 00:44:14,320
Got to thank the partners Axis 
Mining Technology. 

818
00:44:14,960 --> 00:44:18,640
During the show we had good on 
verify and ADR get get amongst 

819
00:44:18,640 --> 00:44:23,200
them Mineral mining services, 
MMS get get amongst DSI, 

820
00:44:23,200 --> 00:44:25,760
underground, Silverstone, CRE 
Insurance, Greenland's 

821
00:44:25,760 --> 00:44:28,760
equipment, K drill and spark use
a spark shop. 

822
00:44:29,480 --> 00:44:32,520
Where are you guys? 
Information contained in this 

823
00:44:32,520 --> 00:44:35,280
episode of Money of Mine is of 
general nature only and does not

824
00:44:35,280 --> 00:44:37,920
take into account the 
objectives, financial situation 

825
00:44:37,960 --> 00:44:39,960
or needs of any particular 
person. 

826
00:44:40,280 --> 00:44:43,320
Before making any investment 
decision, you should consult 

827
00:44:43,320 --> 00:44:46,360
with your financial advisor and 
consider how appropriate the 

828
00:44:46,360 --> 00:44:50,080
advice is to your objectives, 
financial situation and needs.

