Righto money miners tell you what a bit of a market darling
for the Aussie energy sector. Down 20% to the complete polar
opposite to something that is up 20% in my books everyday.
The credibility of Axis Mining Technology the trusted advisor
talk about 20% compounding of trust and just general
awesomeness as a drill Isle survey instrumentation provider.
Everyday compound 20% / a year. Holy snap and dump a.
Billion percent. Return just a billion gazillion
ohh very good. We're gonna get into yen coal
ohh bloody. So you wouldn't think someone
that's got 1/2 billion in cash and bloody go down 20%.
But anyway, Joe, what? You do with the cash, isn't it?
What you do with it, mate? Don't want another.
You don't want every hand, bro. On the friggin on the investor
call ripping your new asshole about M&A.
That doesn't make sense. On the old freakle thing back in
the day, he's my new goat. Your new.
Goat. He's my new goat.
Or one on Big Envy. Big heavy from black hole.
He's the man. We'll get him one day mate,
don't worry. About it, I'll wait for him to
call me. What else?
We got Team Jay and. You're going to uranium land.
You're. Going to uranium?
Land tell you what the fucking Atabaska basin and just Canada
is. I can sense it's turning into WI
lithium 20230. There's shit down everywhere,
there's shit happening. Nothing being mine, just it's
all. Happened deals flow of funds.
Right, brokers, just putting a bit of food on the table.
I love it. Oh, the mania, right GC, What
are you? You got a bit of a bit of a GC
segment. Yeah.
So I'm just touching on a few block trades and strategic
investments that have happened the last 3-4 months and sort of
what it all means. But before we actually get into
I. Was about to say, you know who's
as good as Axis? Who's up there?
Arjun. Arjun.
Yes. A good.
Chat chat is his chat with the boys in the last week do so
compulsory listening if you have any interest whatsoever in in
the energy space and. What it all means and the fact
that Arjun was the ex boss of the delicacy.
Oh no, how crazy is that? But we've had, we've had people,
you know, message and say that that's their favourite interview
that we've done, you know. Yeah, favourite we've.
Done. Almost 100 SO.
That's a lot to say, Goldman Sachs.
What more do you need to know? Talk about credibility.
You don't survive there with it if you're shit, no.
Like. You don't get promoted that all
if you're shit like so he's good.
Absolutely you're right. JD, Speaking of shit price
performance today, Yanko, I think we've got a Ding, Ding,
Ding for Trav or or or after today, it's a Ding, Ding, Ding.
Just just gently, mate, gently. Alright.
So I, I think it's worth giving a bit of a lay of the land
before we get into really why the why the share price has been
smashed. So like you said, down 20%.
We'll talk a bit about the, the half year results.
They, they do their results on a calendar year basis and then
we'll get into the real, the real crux of the news.
But essentially on a high level, they did 990,000,000 in
operating EBITDA, 420 million NPAT.
As a reminder, they're about a $7.5 billion company.
That's after the big whack today.
They finished, this is the big talking point that you
referenced Maddie with 1.55 billion in cash at the end of
the half year, huge. And they're, they're essentially
debt free. They've got some lease
liabilities, but you can think of them as debt free.
They started the year with 1.4 billion in cash paid out over
400 million in Divis. That was you know from the the
full year results at the end at the back end of last year as
well as another 400 in taxes again from from last year as
well. So on an.
Operation. They're a mining company that's
like makes money. It's a it's a pleasant change,
isn't it, Maddie? Like and make heaps of money
like Jesus Christ. Yeah.
So to, to hone in, to hone in on that, Maddie, on their, their
margin, so 17,000,000 tonnes in sales for the half year.
Their guidance is 35 to 39. So they're tracking a touch
behind, although it's second half weighted.
So they should, you know, knock on would be fine barring any
weather disruptions or anything like that.
But they're also a majority thermal coal producer.
So 88% if you're looking at it on a tonnes basis, 78% if you're
looking at it on a revenues, BA revenue basis, obviously with
the price differential and we'll track up a chart that sort of
changes slightly, but stays within the same sort of bands as
you go half year to half year. Yeah, and I'm looking at the,
looking at the chart, Jade, they'll just bring it, bringing
it bloody up. I'm pretty sure they're, you
know, this 20% whack is like, you know, back to where they
were start of the financial year.
It's not like it's been like it's at it's at a good run of
racing. Like, it's not like it's just.
Been 12 month lows. No, it's not been not been
desecrated. It's literally where it was at
the at the end of May. So it's yeah.
If you zoom out Maddie and, and you look at the, the bigger
picture, you know they're, they're very much heading in the
in the right direction. They did acquisitions quite a
while back. They paid down their debt,
became massively net cash and they distributed heaps to
shareholders. But as we'll get into in a bit,
that was the expectation. Yeah.
And like you got a Northeast stock, NE trending stock draught
that is distributing chunky dividends as well.
That's like really Northeast. Super.
Really NE with, with, with a few other catalysts as well, which
again, we'll, we'll touch on near the end of the segment to,
to round out Mattie, you talk about them being a, a cash
generator to put that into context for people that haven't
followed the company as much, they realised on this half year,
176 bucks a tonne, their cash costs are around about 100 bucks
a tonne. You're chucking another 15 bucks
for a royalty. You're effectively working on 60
bucks per tonne EBITDA margin, like I said before, 17,000,000
tonnes. So that gives you over a billion
bucks right there. But then obviously you got to
take into account depreciation, you know, SGNA, CapEx, taxes,
all these sorts of things. The guidance on the cost front
again that was a bit lower than where they were, that's between
89 and 97. But like we always talk about as
the, as the production tonnes go up, the costs will come down
with it being second half weighted, that should say them
pull back in line as we come into the back end of the year.
So on a cost front, they, they improved.
If you look back at the first half of last year now there's
something interesting that really stood out.
Mattie, you'll, you'll like this one, mate.
They're talking about disruptions from the weather and
they've built in additional infrastructure across their
assets so that they don't get whacked around too much by wet
weather. You know, that's, that's a lot
of rain up in Queensland, also in the in the Hunter.
Yeah, right, Josie. They'd better be bloody using
Greenleans for that water infrastructure.
Yeah, it's pretty obvious, isn't?
It Yeah, Jesus. And that this is an example
where you got too much water. You need to put it somewhere.
Yeah. And then not you.
You might need water. You might want to get rid of the
water. You might might want to just
give the water to someone else. Move it from here to here.
Oh sorry, yeah, I think and Greenlands are actually experts
in. Water transfer, mate.
They're like that, right? Yeah, water connectors, they
they identify they're like a bit of an M and a bloody they're
like a water broker, a water broker, a water broker.
They identify who's got fuck all water, identify who's got shit
loads of water. And just like the flower funds
the flower water, they could connect water from abundant
source to a non abundant source That it.
Such a good. It's like a water.
It's like a water desk. A water desk.
They're on the, they're on the water desk.
So I'll tell you why it's not bloody.
Got rain pissing all over you and you don't know what to do
with it and you wanna sell it to someone else?
Get Greenland's equipment to put the bloody infrastructure in and
sort out the exchange for you. Look at the bloody website.
Fly over. I'm just bloody dripping wet
thinking about it. Just love it.
Go Greenlands. Love it.
Anyway, Joe, Sorry, JD Button in there.
I I thought you might like that one mate.
Alright, so. I love water.
So why are they down so much, JD, if they've, you know,
financially seems like they're doing fantastically.
They've made all this cash. They've got all of this cash.
What's What's the Debbie Downer? This is, this is the real news,
right? This is what we're, we're
itching to talk about. South at 1.15%, another .20%.
They're getting whacked, you know, billions of dollars off
the, the market cap and it all centres around them not paying
an interim dividends. So I thought the best way to
illustrate this one guys, was just to scroll through some of
the tweets that I've seen because there's no shortage of
them at the moment. And for those just on the audio,
you're going to have to bear with us for a moment.
I'll try to describe a couple of the emotions we're seeing.
There's a lot of. Tears.
There's a lot of anger, there's a lot of disappointment and
heartbreak. You've.
Got. You've got some tweets from
former guests, Maddie Dat with one in there, Maddie Water with
another one and then there's a bunch of others.
If you're if you're thinking about the main inspiration, I
think you've got a bit of Breaking Bad, some of the
offers, Jamie Vardy, so. You said dividend.
No, I said divvy N Ohh. There might be one you have to
jump on the the YouTube. To see Manny, that one that's
from Ohh, yeah, that's the what was his name?
It's the Breaking Bad one. Yeah, we'll forget the the old
fella. Ohh.
Fucking be Carlos something? No, what was his?
Oh, now I've got to think of this.
I won't be able to continue the. Show you you you Google in the
background mate. I'll I'll keep going with.
Hector Salamanca. That's it.
Hector Salamanca, go ahead.
Oh, Jesus Christ. So, but so it's like they've
it's like they've gone ex dividend on the share price
without paying the dividend effect a little bit.
And some and some, Yeah. So yeah, you know, I think,
yeah, I think you get the picture by now if you're at
least if you're watching on the the YouTube.
The divvy was cornerstone to the Yankol investment rationale.
Heaps of the punters out there. It was just a a yield play.
And we'll, we'll show their dividend history here.
And it's worth bearing in mind since about 2022, the beginning
of 22 roughly, they they've traded in a four to $6 range and
they've got a dividend of 33 cents, 37 cents, 70 cents, 53
cents. They're all semi annual.
And then you've also got another 20 cent, you got another $0.50
quarterly dividend. Now this is all while they pay
back US $3 billion in loan repayments over an 18 month
period and they don't not only went from that net debt position
to becoming massively net cash to the tune of 1.5 billion as we
touched on at the beginning of the show.
So all of this is in preparation for M&A and that M&A comes with
a met coal focus. Like I said before, these guys
are thermal coal miners. So it's the old White Haven,
White Haven coal move, which we spoke a bunch about when,
whenever that was September, October last year.
And if you, if you look in the weeds a bit there, there were
warnings not so much on the dividend front, but obviously on
the the M&A front. If I pull up this comment here
from the CEO from the quarterly just one month ago, I'll read a
couple lines off. A large cash balance and robust
margins provides us with capacity to pursue suitable
growth opportunities. So again, not crystal clear what
they were going to do with the dividends, but they were clearly
looking at growth and talking about M&A.
The the obvious target is Anglo Cole.
I see an article every other day about the Anglo Cole sales
process. You know who's running it, who's
interested, all these sorts of things.
So we're not breaking any news on that front.
The Australian did however, report that on September 9th is
when the the sellers are requesting bids and you know,
you can bet there'll be hot competition again, just like
there was for Dornier and Blackwater.
A couple of the names to expect, you know, Glencore, Whitehaven,
Stanmore, sort of the gear you got.
Burma as well, obviously. Yanko throwing their hat in the
ring. Big Clive Armour, he'd be
fucking getting in there, wouldn't he?
Big Clive. Big Clive.
Mate, if I was Clive with Tinkler only that much.
Tinkler get back in the game. Get Tinkler involved.
Bring back Tinkler, yeah. I wanna say JV between Clive
Palmer and Nathan Tinkler. Go Australia.
There's two cracking personalities of the Aussie
mining Hey Oh. I'd love it.
That that would be juicy mate. So they bribe the North
Queensland Cowboys. Oh, right, right.
So let's, you know, what do you think around the market
reaction? JD justified.
Bloody overshot. What?
What's going on? Yeah, I think, I think that's
the question to ask mate. I think the the M&A has been
pretty fleshed out. We've spoken about it in the
past. We don't need to go into too
much there. But you know 20% off is a a big
old whack. And the the first clear read is
that these investors do not want growth.
That is not what they're there for.
And you know that that sort of squares, you know, not so well
with the fact that most companies want to grow like it's
it's in their nature. We say it all the time, we talk
about it all the time. And by default, I'd I'd say I'm
against M and AI think in the in the mining space in particular
can be very destructive. So I think that's the kind of
default stance I take until kind of proven otherwise.
But with that said, in the coal space, looking back at most of
the deals we've seen in the past few years, they've been pretty,
pretty solid deals. You've got either sort of
pressured sellers or, or for sellers, however you want to
kind of put it with buyers that are playing paying relatively
low multiples and just able to earn that back in a not so long
period of time. So it's the same in this kind of
case, assuming Anglo Coal is what we're kind of talking
about. You got a, a pressured seller, a
company that's under real strife that sort of, you know, blew
themselves up to not get bought out by BHB.
And I think this deal will, you know, it would be similarly
friendly. You know, you can think of how
BHB structured the selling of their assets, maybe not as
friendly. BHB is in a much stronger
position and they were able to really, you know, finance the,
the sale process for Whitehaven. But you bear that in mind and
then you take into account, you know, at least on my personal
level, I'm I'm bullish met Cole. I think Matt Water illustrated
that point in great detail when we had him on the show.
So people can can go and watch that.
We don't need to flesh that out massively.
But that just leaves me thinking it's definitely worth exploring.
And if I'm in the the boardroom there, I'd definitely be
encouraging management to have a close look at the deal.
You've got a, a demand side of the picture, which you know the
demand isn't going away anytime soon for met coal.
And then you've got a real shortage of, of supply,
especially sort of quality kind of supplied I'd say in a kind of
safe jurisdiction. But I'm not sure we can really
call Australia a safe jurisdiction anymore with all
the the royalties and whatnot that we've seen.
Especially Queensland coal. Exactly.
And we'll, we'll get into that a bit more with, with a couple
comments on the, the earnings later on.
So bearing all that in mind, you, you do get a lot of
uncertainty that the M&A brings. You know, it's, it's pretty fair
that the yield investors are, are frustrated.
Companies should have a pretty solid gauge of what they, what
the owners want. You know, this, this management
team doesn't own a, a massive amount of shares in the company,
although you've got that 62% owner and then you've got
another a sort of circa 7% owner in Cinder.
And I'm sure they'd be pretty tapped into what management is
all about. I wonder wonder if they are they
going to you got any updates on the whole free float side of
things and if they'll ever get in the ASX 200?
Mate, they are so close. They are last time I looked
29.56% free float. The the requirement for ASX 200
inclusion or one of the requirements is 30% and we know
we know Cinder who I just mentioned there, they're the
second biggest shareholder they have been selling.
So they are that close and that would, you know, in in my eyes,
that can't be too far away and that would lead to quite a bit
of buying and. You know that that's might might
be what an acquisition brings if they chew up a cash and do a
shit massive, huge capital rise and then that would put the free
flight above 30% easily. I guess the argument is like, if
they're hoarding that much cash, are they doing that so they
don't have to issue equity? But I mean what?
Depends how big the deal. Is how the Yeah, it depends on
how big the deal is. And it's just like, well, would
you not just use your cash and like debt fund it?
Would you raise equity? I don't know it just sort.
Of I don't think they would. Capital, right?
I don't think they'd raise equity.
I mean, look at look at what Whitehaven did and how they were
able to get that away. You, you've got 1.5 billion
there. I know it is a, it is a pretty
chunky bite that we're talking about, but I can see them
teaming up with the, the likes of acidic that's already been
reported. You get a hefty amount of debt.
We saw them take on US 3 billion in the past.
That gets you a long way there. And then maybe a bit of vendor
financing or something like that.
I don't think equity dilution is a, a serious concern here.
You know, I, I, you never know what's going to happen, but I, I
would be very surprised if they in lower.
Liking Order for sure. Yeah, I mean, that was the big
scare around Whitehaven, right? People thought they might do,
you know, they might dilute the shareholders.
They didn't end up having to with BHB helping fund a good bit
of the deal and then them stamping up cash and a bit of
debt that got them across the line.
This would be a bit of a bigger bite.
I'm not sure if they're looking at buying perhaps a couple of
the assets. That's clearly not what Anglo
wanted, but maybe that's something we see.
You'd never know. Well, how much do you reckon the
Anglo Metco assets that go for? So from, from what I sort of
read, a lot of the brokers had the value a bit of AUS 3.
But then you you talk about checking on a premium and that
they wanted closer to 5:00, but that was pre the the fire we saw
at Grosvenor. So who knows what that kind of
chalks off. There's been a bit, you know,
commentary on that's been a bit quieter since, but it it's a big
old bite. But you know, this is a company
that's 7.5 billion Aussie in in market cap.
Them teaming up with someone could could definitely make this
doable without any sort of equity dilution almost.
Like a bit bit of like a BHP Lundeen group approach for Filo
do something similar. Yeah, I'd, I'd imagine the the
tie up would be much more in favour of Yanko.
Like, you know, again, a point to Whitehaven and they're
talking about selling 10 to 30% maybe of just one mine as
opposed to like a 5050 sort of split.
So you know, that's all the M and a commentary.
I think we can talk hours on end on that stuff.
But there were a couple other points I wanted to flesh out
from from the coal that I thought were interesting.
The first couple we'd taken with a grain of salt because this is
a coal company talk in their book, but I have got on the
demand side. That's some interesting comments
around the increased thermal coal demand on the back of heaps
of electricity demand. I think this is sort of super
interesting. We saw it in New South Wales, we
saw the arrearing coal fired plant having its life extended
and you can see the chart that will Chuck up now with numbers
coming out of Wood Mac, their forecasts.
And that just illustrates, you know, as time has gone by,
people have just continued to increase the expectations of
when coal demand peaks, and that's just gone higher and
higher. The second interesting point is
on the supply side. This goes exactly to what we
spoke about yesterday, years of permitting and finance
restrictions contributing to accelerated reserve exhaustion.
All these assets move up on the cost curve with the, you know,
added time for permitting, the financing restrictions, the
royalties being added in, all these sorts of things.
At the end of the day, the existing producers are the
winners as well as the the overseas companies and the
deposits and projects that sit overseas.
And the last comment before I fling over to you guys is one
that respectulator on on Twitter pointed me in the in the
direction of and this relates to just how cooked their Queensland
operations are. So you got Yarrabee and
Middlemount and I'll show the chart here or the from the
numbers from the results, not the presentation.
But if you actually dug into the numbers and you can see all the
earnings came from NSW, they lost 43,000,000 bucks on their
QLD assets. So the, the management try to
talk about this in a kind of different light.
They, they shone the light on our three largest mines being
some of the best column mines in Australia.
But you just kind of need to invert the comment and look at
the, the other operations they've got.
And, you know, maybe that leads to management trying to flog
them off if someone would buy them down the track.
But yeah, there was plenty more to talk about in the
presentation. It was actually really, really
interesting. The, the calls not so
interesting here because no brokers cover it.
There's no, they're not really many interesting questions being
asked, but I think we can sort of leave it at that and get into
a bit of uranium news. Maddie.
I reckon we'll get you on the next call.
JD, just one comment on the M&A thing.
It's like one, there's one doing M&A, but it looks like the M&A
they're going to do is going to be very competitive.
And statistically the pipe if you are the successful bidder,
you usually pay more than everyone else was going to
statistically statistics. Statistically, that's a bit of
wisdom mate. So they might.
That would be the fear that they're going to pay a shit load
for something. Overpay for it.
Yeah, definitely, definitely a competitive sort of process, but
who not, I mean there's a good chance they don't even win this.
You know, they were the under bidder for Dorney and
Blackwater. There's a good chance they don't
even win the bidding process here.
We're we're talking in six months time they've still got
all this cash and they just decide to pay it all out big.
Social divvy oh crystal ball stuff love it JD good worker.
I'll make a bit of a bit of bit of uranium activity in the
bloody Adabasca basin all all throughout Canada.
This is reminds me of WA lithium.
It just have this have this feel about it.
And I think we've talked about this Atha we've I think we
talked about Amanda last year. So this year when they did that
3 way merger, so they're TXTSXV listed, they're about a Canadian
178 mil market cap. So like we they did this 3 way
merger announced that last year went through the start of this
year. That's when they they tied up
with that ISX 92 energy and the CSC listed Latitude Uranium.
Yeah, that brought together the 92 energy had that Gemini, my
discovery you'd say some intersections close to surface
sort of uranium at in the Attabasco Basin.
Then Latitude had this £43 million resource at Angolac in
the Northwest Territory, so just sort of north of Saskatchewan.
And then they also had this CMB resource in Labrador, £14
million there. And then Arthur got all this
exploration ground and all the, they got some carried interests
on exploration blocks held by Next Gen and also energy over,
over the other side. And oh, there's anyway, there's
some crossovers of personnel. They'll get in, get into it
later. But it didn't stop there.
Then Arthur, then they then in April, they agreed to terms with
this Inspiration energy for there was an $8 million option
agreement for the Legend Plateau properties.
And so Inspiration would end up with 70% of each of those
projects after putting about 4,000,000 bucks of exploration
into each. And then in May, Ather did
another 70% job with riverboat energy for the Vista project in
the southern part of the Atabaska Basin.
And so $9 million of exploration going into that one, I'm, I'm
fucking hate to be right in the annual reports and doing the
account and there's just shit going everywhere.
Hasn't anyway, all all this activity emerging and bloody
carrying and yadda, yadda hasn't done too much for the share
price. One year performance and I'll
put them on, I'll show them relative to Paladin Boston
NextGen for one year down 27%. So you can see it's it's
underperformed relative to those stocks.
So now. Take us Maddie.
Take us to today's. Deals.
So there's there's thrill. To keep.
There's all them deals and today's deals.
So it's a bit of a it's a bit of a swapsy jobby going on bit of
AI think they've thrown the life draught out to this company.
So you've got Ather and there's ISX listed terror uranium.
So the Arthur CEO, he used to be on the board for terror uranium
before he joined Arthur. So and he was also a Geo for
Camico for nine years and VP of Operations for Next Gen for five
and a half up until 2021. So talk about a bloke that
sounds uranium Y. Is that a word?
Uranium Y. Euranium esque.
Very Euranium S so Tara, they're pretty much a $4 million market
cap shell company, 319 grand left in the bank at the end of
the quarter. So they're out of they were out
of dough. So that and they were in
discussions to acquire this AIMA Lake project in Nunavut.
That's the Canadian province, that's NE of Saskatchewan, OK,
but it's got it's a lot, it's got shitty, it goes forever.
It's like very, very. North next to the Northwest
Territories and they they had like mineral rights on an
adjacent tenement to this. I'm alike.
So they and they're trying to extend the mineral rights for
that and that's contingent on that deal going through.
But anyway, today's one is it's a non binding letter of intent.
So essentially good for fuck all at the moment until it's set in
stone. Bloody.
So part one is for T92 which is Terra uranium.
So they're pass field like ground which is adjacent to
Arthur's Ridge project which is north of Cigar Lakes are budding
tenements. So pretty much if they drill, if
Arthur drill four sets of exploration campaigns valued at
1,000,000 bucks each, or if they drill 4000 metre holes into the
Geophys target, Arthur can convert that into either a 4%
NSR on the project or take a 60% interest in the project with T92
retaining 40%. So they're, they're like 4
separate options spaced one year apart, each option valued at
either 1% NSR or 15% of the project.
And then the, the Swapsey job was there's the old Athos 70%
off the shelf arrangement that we've talked about 17 times
before for the Spy Horizon tenements.
And they're, they're the tenements next to the Gemini
project that come with the merger that they did with 92
Energy at the start of the year. So there's there's, there's
bloody but. I'm just gonna say I've like,
I've completely tuned in. I'm so fucking confused.
Just look at the maps. Just look at this just.
We're just, we're taking a bit off here.
We're piercing it together. We're there.
We'll give. You a jigsaw puzzle.
Oh God. So they're anyway they've got to
just, they've got to spend 2.75 million on exploration for T92
to get a 50% interest and then another 2 million to go up to
70%. But they have to spend 750 grand
by late December this year, even though they'll get some.
I think you get a rebate from the Saskatchewan government,
Saskatchewan government for exploration activities for Geo
fizzle drilling, but 300 odd grand in the bank.
So I think they. Still made money.
I think the emails were coming out just as I went on for the
the capital raise coming out for Terry Uranium.
So definitely be A2 tranche of that one because it's a bloody
$4 million company. So overall I'll surmise it.
Arthur have a shit load of uranium and ground in in Canada
and they're doing a heap of option agreements with other
companies to do exploration on their shit loader ground.
That's a good summary. That reminds me of WA Lithium
last year so. Just a lot of fingers and a.
Lot of brokers, the brokers are loving life.
Nothing will probably ever get mined or for years or decades,
but everyone's just chucking a bit of food on the table.
Let the mania begin in bloody the uranium in the Adabaska
basin. Oh, fucking I'll tell you what,
all between all of that, all that exploration data that had
that'd really test out the CPU capacity of those friggin verify
computers trying to Oh my God, magic process and all that data
the very through the AI to do the exploration targets and
Jesus Christ, the bloody water cool, and you'd have to Chuck a
bit of ice in. There or or terabytes worth of
stuff far out. Well, it would, because it's
Terry Uraine. I didn't even mean.
Stella GC would have loved that. Oh, we had a visit from Stella
GC today anyway. But I tell you what, verify if
you wanna frigging start chucking some models around the
Attabasket basin. That's gonna but that'll keep
you busy for years. Ohh jeez, imagine the like the
conferences will just be flying. Imagine pay.
I wanna go to pay Duck and I wanna go watch the Prezis and I
just wanna see verified, verified, verify.
Like that'd make it worth my while just to see the whole of
Pedak verified 'cause it's on steroids compared to anything we
see in Australia. Oh, 100%.
Oh mate, I think I need a a standard verify presentation
just to understand all the targets you're talking about
here as well. Like to mention the AI.
Imagine the fly over, you'd be bloody.
Oh mate, you'd be be. You're flying from one end of
the country to the other. Yeah, mate, you get a bit
seasick I reckon. Yeah, she anyway, she's all,
she's all happening. I can, I can.
Oh, I can feel a bit of mania coming about so.
Go Saskatchewan. Interesting to see on the on the
U front, Maddie, it's been, you know, pulled up on all these the
recession talks and everything lately.
We've had a scan of the old watch list before there and
there's, you know, been a little while since I've looked, but a
lot, a lot of the names have been whacked around a bit.
Hey. Coming coming Friday is Cos Adam
Prom's 2025 sort of outlook. I think that's the one that
everyone's been bloody waiting for, so yeah.
We're doing all nighter mate. Doing doing an all nighter could
be like just I've heard one comment, you know, predicting
sort of a flat year on year, but interesting to see.
Like you look at the short positions of like, you know,
Paladin boss, deep yellow and all that sort of continuing to
rise. But you you would imagine like
you'd have to be pretty depending on how cause how
influential that cause Adam prom announcement is like holding a
short position over the weekend from a Cazada prom announcement
and then seeing what's going to happen on market open Monday.
So it'd be interesting to see what what happens in the U
stocks in the lead up to that. If with with that short
interest, if they're starting to be a bit of short covering,
because she should be a bit of a gamble with that sort of things.
So got to be. But that's you.
I think this is, I saw her, I think it was on old, old
Hoonies, one of his webinars. They bought up this, bought up
this chart of like I think it was, it was either historical
uranium equity or spot price performance or something like as
a on a relative basis over 20 years, month by month.
And you just say, and there's always this, there was this big
massive gully in August historically over the 20 years
because of the North Northern hemisphere summer.
So OK, yeah, she's she's definitely being bloody.
Oh mate, there's still the love on Twitter, everyone.
All your you mates. All the you mates, they haven't
given up faith. Ebbs and flows, mate.
Ebbs and flows. Yeah, so now we'll be watching
out, we'll be watching out for that and reporting accordingly.
I think they get, I think from what I well, what I have heard
is everyone was like, right, how the how the fuck are they bloody
maintaining, maintaining or lifting guidance to where they
dropped it to when like ink eye reported lower and they're like,
oh, and based on all this historical friggin short
historical low of sulfuric acid issues.
But I have heard like the boot and off score the new one
because it wasn't started, stopped and restarted because of
COVID, because it is a new one. I think that's been a bit easier
to get up and going because it's like it's a fresh, fresh well
rather than and as we've said, like stopping a well then trying
to restart, it can be a bit problematic.
So I think that with that coming on, Yeah, interesting count,
right? Love it.
Go nuclear. Very cool, Ali.
Talk to us about something. Do we need a break after that?
Jesus Christ, fucking got a bit dizzy.
Oh God rip in JC oh. Gee, so just to close off today,
register shake up. So there's been a noticeable
amount of block trade sell down strategic investments in the old
inverted quotation Marks and registers shake UPS the last few
months, particularly in the gold space.
So I thought I'd actually dig into it a little bit and say
sort of what's been happening in the last few months.
And before we go into this segment, we'll get all the Ding,
Ding Dings out the way. So a Ding, Ding, Ding for
Spartan for JD and then a Ding, Ding, Ding for Genesis, degrade,
develop and min res for myself. So.
I think this is my problem. I don't think I have any Ding
Ding Dings. There's there's my issue.
There's. Your issue so, So what, why is
this the case? I think the trend we've seen
with a lot of the these deals that have happened in the last
few months is people who have been very long term holders or
perhaps aren't natural holders of that particular stock either
taking profits or providing someone else with a very
valuable M and a stake as a, you know, a potential corporate
server. So some some super recent
examples we saw, you know, Perseus take a strategic stake
into predictive Genesis. I mean, sorry, RCF disposed a
bit of their Genesis stake. Red 5 did their big block trade
the other week to. Themselves.
To themselves, yeah, that was probably the only one that
doesn't imply to the rationale we we talked about before
Catalyst, that's sort of actually a bit of a movement in
their register. So Gina had a sort of a long
term stake in Catalyst for a while and they block traded that
out to board of management and in store investors in April.
And then more recently the other day St Barbara sold their
remaining stake for 25 mil as well.
The unsure of who the the buyers were on that one.
Spartans. Another example that's had a bit
of a, you know, a registered shake up since it's old gas
going days. I mean NRW was which was the
contractor. They did a big sell down of
their remaining stake for $33 million back when Spartan did
their it was part of at the same time as Spartan did their
capital raising back in April. Tembo took some off the table
back in June. Around the same time Remelius
picked up a huge stake in Spartan, largely through that
Deutsche Balaton stake. You know, Fortescue's another
one, probably not. On the not so positive side,
Capital Group sold off 1.1 billion a couple months ago and
there was another almost $2 billion block trade just last
month. As well, I was looking at the
biggest Capital Group. Yeah, yeah, I was looking like
you searched the biggest assets under management in the world,
like, you know, BlackRock up the top.
But I think that Capital Group wasn't far behind.
Like they are freaking huge. Yeah, I think when I, I think
when I looked it was 2.3 trillion.
That's the number that comes to. Mind Black Rock?
What are they, 6 trillion or 9? Trillion.
They're in the trillion somewhere. 6 or 9 trillion it's
fuck. I think they cracked 10, yeah.
Yeah, I think maybe I looked at 9.
They're freaking huge going. Interesting, Interesting also on
the on the Fortescue front there, Ally, you mentioned seen
a few comments on the sale side as well as the buy side of
people turning bullish now that FMG have got whacked.
You know, white way more than their sort of kind of peer
group. If you like the the likes of BHB
and Rio Tinto. There was a article in the Fin
about this. I saw JP Morgan City, they all
upgraded their outlooks, that's on the equity research side as
well as Elliston talking up saying they've flicked out their
BHP holding for an FMG holding. What else we got J say?
Actually, 1:00 we we touched on earlier, the yankholes cinders
sort of sold down a bit. Is that was that the 60% holder
the big deal? The second one, All right, Yeah,
Yeah. So that was a couple months ago,
AMC, they actually cleared out a couple of their holdings, one in
Jupiterbinds and one in Red Hill.
A couple of months ago. Orion did a big sell down in
Adriatic in May. That was when Adriatic was in
the fours. So that was pretty, pretty well
timed by then. Min Res getting rid of their
develop stake. There's another one and then
there's a few others as well. Wall E actually that was quite a
big one. Dubai Infrastructure Group
Sedara $1.4 billion block trade there, Gina getting into liners
and then capstone copper basically Orion again, they did
a sell down, but shunting that stock from the T6 to a six to
create some more liquidity on this exchange here.
So I guess look there, there's that's the list all came up and
there's probably heaps more that I've.
Been down getting into medallion future rising store.
Then a new substantial holder. So I guess what do you guys
think about the increase level in this type of corporate
activity as opposed to traditional M and I?
Well, it looks like a lot of them have a really cat picking,
trying to pick. There's a lot that have picked
the top and cashed in like you know the Yankel one lot.
They've obviously whether they had an indication that there was
no dividend going to be paid because they've obviously cashed
out at a much better spot than it is today.
And you know, a lot of the bloody and we same with, yeah, a
lot of everything's pulled, pulled back a bit this bloody
last few months. But yeah, there's a bit, there's
a bit from both, isn't there? There's a lot.
There's a spring pizza going on here.
It's a spring pizza. When's Jane?
When's Jane's next big play? Something to be?
Happened. Yeah, she's due.
She's been quiet. She's due.
The Wailujina. They've been quiet.
I mean to, to answer your question, Elliot, I'm not sure
if it's more heightened than than normal or not.
I'm, you know, trying to think of what the actual sort of
standard rate is, but I. Don't think we've ever written
them down, that's why. Well, once you actually collide
them, it's it's like. I wonder if it is actually more
than usual or not or. It's just you've just.
Done such a good job of colliding them.
It certainly looks like more strategic selling than buying.
Just looking. Obviously there's always someone
else on the on the transaction side and we don't always know
who's on the other side, but it looks a lot of like those, you
know, strategic seller with multiple, you know, financial
buyers on the other side as opposed to more strategic buyers
coming in and swooping up stakes.
I think a lot of people might have seen that, you know, things
got a bit carried away when we had base members prices really
kick for a couple of months there and they just sort of
picked it and kind of sold out a few positions.
A couple of them also speak to, you know, funding dynamics that
mean raise one. I think they were freeing up a
bit of cash there. I think you could kind of say
the same for for other reasons. But yeah, it's, I think it's
kind of interesting. I think and I think a lot of if
you go through a lot of them, they've all been pretty long
term ones that got in there early and probably chips off the
table like you know, 10 by Deutsche Bellatom with Spartan
obviously. Orion, Adrian.
RCF did the original deal alongside Aussie Super for the
the whole Genesis, Genesis Gwalia, sort of.
Oh, would that did they come in when?
No, that was for the Gwalia deal.
Later. That was for the Gwalia deal,
the Leonora deal, yeah. Then both the Ryan ones were,
you know, funding to not show up the company from one stage to
the next kind of level. You know, Adriatic as well as
Capstone. And FMG like, you know, on all
price friggin absolutely ripping and FMG at all time highs and
prediction of, you know, yeah, worries about the China housing
market and everything. So probably just thinking,
right, take the money now. Yeah, just take the I'll.
Come back in later a bit cheaper.
How about any potential block trade ideas you've got, Ally, I
know you've been kind of a few. We'll have a bit of circulation
nice too one of your ideas in here too.
That is the best. So the first one, which I mean
is pretty obvious one is Gold Roads 17.3% stake in degree
that's now worth well over 500 million Australian dollars and
it's about 1/4 of Gold Roads market cap.
And you know, we all know that Gold Rd aren't an operator them
themselves. A Gold fields operate the degree
asset that they've got a 5050 JV on.
So that don't really make sense as a potential suitor for to
Grey Gold Rd had about 86 million cash at 30 June.
So, you know, could they use that as an opportunity to
unlock, you know, half a billion dollars to do some sort of a
deal, you know, outside of GRE or something like that?
Or you know the the other example which has been, you
know, circulated numerous times is you know, people someone
buying Gold Road to get access to.
Grey itself, God if if there's any time this whole Regis Gold
Rd thing was going to happen it would be now.
You'd think on the back of the As I said, even though Mcphillum
was probably on ice anyway, it's really on ice now after the
government's decision. Actually, I'll let you take the
the next one, Maddie Sing as it was your.
Idea. I reckon I know where it might
go. Tell us.
Just one quick one before you jump in with that next, Maddie,
I'd imagine Gold Rd have a a bit of a tax deal.
So it's probably not 500 floors. You know, if they want to use
that to to do another deal, yeah, they have to pay a bit of
capital gains on that one. The the the magnetic, the dial
Alcock 11% stake, worth about 45 bucks.
Oh, look, the reason I put that in there sort of as you pointed
out last week, Betty, when we did a bit of a deep dive on
magnetic. I'm not sure that 45,000,000 is,
you know, neither here nor there for for, you know, big WA
property developer, but it might be another one of those cases of
Dale taking the profits man offering up a potential
strategic stake for for Suter that's active in the Leonora
Laverton region. But I think that's got probably
a bit more water to go under the bridge that prospect.
But I think that's stake. If anyone was going to take a
corporate action, that would be the one I'd be picking if I had
my banker had on to sort of get a get a good chunky stake there
to start. As as we said about magnetic,
like it's not like it's just popped up either.
Like that's the funniest thing about the whole rising gold
price environment. Like it's been been around for
frigging ages. But once the gold price gets
high, it's like, right what? What's around?
What can people take? And it's just started getting
all this attention. And yeah, it's, it's getting
talked about, but it hasn't changed.
No, no, exactly. So.
The other one I'd like to put forward is Saint Barbara.
So after all the bloody dealings that they've had and you know,
since the company sort of changed a fair bit since they
divested their Leonora assets to Genesis, they've got they
actually had quite a sizable investment portfolio which was
almost forty $550,000,000 prior to them selling their catalyst
stake the other day. What they do, I will flash up a
table here. This is the the remaining
investment portfolio that they've got at the moment
between Bright Star Patronus resources and Patronus was
previously keen mining when when they merged with PNX Metals and
also Peel mining as well. So with with Bright Star, I
understand most of those shares if not all sort of escrow for a
period of time. So I don't think we'll see any
action on that anytime soon. But again, I don't feel now that
St Barbara is out of the region, they don't make sense to sort of
be a natural holder of the stock anymore.
Well. Who is Saint Barbara now?
Yeah. I know it's just just changed.
They might just keep selling shares and just keep.
Make money that way. Fucking yeah.
Weird. So I don't know, I think I could
probably see someone like a line selection or Collin Straight who
are already in Bright Star, maybe pick up a bit of that or
you know, someone similar to that in the institutional
investor space. Or you know, could you say a
Genesis or a Red who are in the region, you know, take up that
state. So I think that's one probably
to watch. Genesis are already on the
register because they converted a bit of.
They're processing fees, yeah. So that could be, that could be
a potential Patronus appeal. They don't sort of make sense to
me as far as a holding for Saint Barbara.
So I imagine they'll probably get offloaded at at some stage,
but it's not as probably straightforward for them as
they're not as liquid of stock and that no immediately obvious
buys of those stakes sort of come to mind for me.
So we'll see what happens with those ones.
And the last one I had is Newmont stake in and taper.
So they've got an 8.6% stake in and taper.
Given what's happening with Newmont putting telephone, it's
heavy air on stake up for sale. I'm not sure what Newmont are
going to do with their and taper equity interests in the long
run, although I do note they did exercise their top up rights
back in July. But you, yeah, I'm just not sure
what's going to happen with that long term if they're looking to
get out of that region. But it may mean that, you know,
once they do sort of go through the process with telephone
heavier on that incoming buyer or buyers, you know, might, you
know, take on that Newmont's taken in taper perhaps did.
Newmont just pick it up recently the 8.6% or part.
They they've had it, but they exercise like a top up right to
maintain it in the recent raise. Yeah.
So not sure what's going to happen there.
But I think Long story short is I don't think it's going to stay
in Newmont's hands and probably whoever comes into that region
would be the most likely by there.
Fuck that. That's a fucking good segment,
JC. Thanks mate, this is my
everything else is so fucking depressing.
The last few days I've thought just a bit of speculation never
hurts so. You know it wasn't depressed
today. Stella JC.
Oh, she met Maddie for the first time JC.
And she's just like. Ali JC.
We're walking out to get a barn me as well, which she also loved
by the way. She's like, it's petty.
She's just freaking out. She's so starstruck, bless her.
Ohh, she's. Like a little pocket rocket.
Ohh, she's a bloody legend. Absolute legend first.
Just making everyone's day. First ever barn me for Stella G
so. She she said.
It's like this is amazing. Oh this is amazing.
This is a roast pork chilli and make sure you tell Q you want
AGC barn me. GC barn me.
Stock standard right? Any others that on the might
have a scan through the old watch list?
Any other block trades you reckon JD?
Or anyone making sort of a, you know, like a, a Remelius or
Percy style strategic investment, sort of keeping
their options open until they sort of, you know, things,
things get figured out, I guess. Let me have a look.
It's been a while since we've seen Big Chris do something like
this. He was pretty active and they're
doing these sorts of deals. Yeah, they're in the.
Last year they've got much bigger fish to fry.
Yeah, so, but it's exciting when he.
Was I mean I? Wish you.
Maybe to your point Ally, they could be sellers that wouldn't.
That wouldn't surprise, could be on the other side of the coin.
They'd be taking, you know, big write downs on the majority of
their positions, but they need cash.
That's going to be a very interesting earnings call, isn't
it? Only ones.
I'm just thinking Bellevue while they're low, someone might look
for if they do have a bit of further future pain.
But a lot of their major chunks are with the big dogs like with
BlackRock and obviously with all the big funds like Vanek and
Skosher. I think maybe.
But yes, I don't know if I don't know if anything had happened
there if they'd be able to do a big chunk or a bander with Hawks
Point. They got Hawks pointed got a big
chunk. Unless that if they'd unload a
bit to anyone at these high prices.
I think our band was $0.50 today.
Wow. Yeah.
No, that's a good one. So and then look at the bloody
share price of long town at the at the moment, I think were they
they're in the 70s. I think they're back in the 80s,
seventy nine 80s today. And you think of it, you're just
saying what happened with Latin and you're thinking right, if
that's anything to go by, we'll Gina bloody pick that up while
it's low. Don't know.
It's just one of them things that goes quiet and you wonder
when something like that's going to happen.
It's usually when you don't don't expect it.
But that's in terms of the counter cyclical moves.
But they got a obviously a big job ahead of them with the with
the ramp up and everything at the depressed prices.
So yeah, got me. On Minres, Minres need cash and
they've got that stake in in Wildcat.
There's someone, I mean, most, most, most other lithium players
are hurting as well, but you know who's hurting the most?
Who could take that off their hands?
But then it's like, you know, to acquire, you know, to get that
stake when they did and all these lithium stakes, they got
to then start flogging them off so soon.
After. Bloody at the actual ultimate
low, like just for survival, it's like fuck, that'd be just.
And you do it because you have to.
Yeah, you do it because you have to, because yeah, that's there.
There's a bit of a bit of speculation.
Specula. For your Tuesday.
The only thing that you don't have to speculate about is how
good access mine and technology is.
No doubt about. It no speculation that is just
NE good dividend yield, just you know what you're getting.
Up and to the right, hey? CSL, I don't think they'd give a
dividend, but Berkshire Hathaway?
I love it, yeah. Access morning technology also
gone MMS verify smack Baron technology DSI underground
Silverstone CR insurance greenlands equipment.
The water brokers love it. Kay Drill Get a spark chart up
here as well. Information contained in this
episode of Money of Mine is of general nature only and does not
take into account the objectives, financial situation
or needs of any particular person.
Before making any investment decision, you should consult
with your financial advisor and consider how appropriate the
advice is to your objectives, financial situation and needs.