1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:04,200 Righto buddy, borders, we got some action in the lithium, MMM 2 00:00:04,200 --> 00:00:07,600 and a lithium is back. We're heading a bloody Brazil 3 00:00:07,600 --> 00:00:12,000 and Brazil is not out of the question for an Axis mining 4 00:00:12,000 --> 00:00:14,200 technology piece of equipment to head to. 5 00:00:14,400 --> 00:00:17,040 Just 'cause they're Australia, mate, they were mate. 6 00:00:17,040 --> 00:00:21,960 They Brazil, North America, they will go anywhere to make sure 7 00:00:21,960 --> 00:00:24,760 you know exactly where those drill aisles are going on AGC. 8 00:00:24,760 --> 00:00:28,800 They're the Mr 305 of the drilling world that is Mr 9 00:00:28,800 --> 00:00:32,040 Worldwide. Trusted international drill 10 00:00:32,040 --> 00:00:33,840 advisor Prestige. Well, what? 11 00:00:33,840 --> 00:00:34,480 What? What? 12 00:00:35,280 --> 00:00:37,160 Oh, I love it, JD. How are you, Cobba? 13 00:00:37,160 --> 00:00:40,120 Bit of action today mate. I'm excited. 14 00:00:40,280 --> 00:00:42,800 No, no sort of scratching around post quarterly's of things to 15 00:00:43,240 --> 00:00:45,240 things to read about, talk about or whatever. 16 00:00:45,240 --> 00:00:48,040 We got plenty going on. Ali, you've gone deep as well. 17 00:00:48,080 --> 00:00:49,560 Oh, jeez. Yeah. 18 00:00:49,680 --> 00:00:53,320 Not now we've we're going to West Africa with. 19 00:00:53,880 --> 00:00:56,720 Everything starts with P. Everything's paid today, 20 00:00:56,920 --> 00:01:01,280 Pilbara, Perseus, Predictive, it's all happening except Vlad. 21 00:01:01,640 --> 00:01:04,519 They get to miss out. But no, I'll, I'll be touching 22 00:01:04,519 --> 00:01:09,360 on the Perseus strategic investment in predictive as well 23 00:01:09,360 --> 00:01:10,160 later on. Oh. 24 00:01:10,400 --> 00:01:12,120 Good, good to have you back on the desk. 25 00:01:12,120 --> 00:01:14,600 Jason back on the desk talking. To the desk a bit. 26 00:01:14,680 --> 00:01:17,400 I've got a bit of shit going on in buying closed doors on the 27 00:01:17,400 --> 00:01:20,360 desk anyway. We'll get You are the desk man. 28 00:01:20,400 --> 00:01:21,200 You are the. Desk. 29 00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:24,600 I am the desk learn about our goes right right. 30 00:01:24,600 --> 00:01:27,840 Let's rip it Pilbra Pilbra minerals. 31 00:01:27,840 --> 00:01:32,920 They've done a doing a deal. Latin resources are J, so you're 32 00:01:32,920 --> 00:01:35,480 a Ding Ding. Ding Ding on Pilbra. 33 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:38,120 Pilbra. Yep, long or short. 34 00:01:38,600 --> 00:01:40,440 Lol oh that's not good. No, I'm not sure. 35 00:01:40,440 --> 00:01:41,800 Unlucky. Unlucky today though. 36 00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:44,680 Yeah, right. Let's little bloody Jada you've 37 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:46,360 you've done the leg work here, mate. 38 00:01:46,360 --> 00:01:48,040 Rip through the deal. What's going on? 39 00:01:48,040 --> 00:01:50,560 Who's who? Give it to me, baby. 40 00:01:51,080 --> 00:01:53,600 Alright, bit a bit of a lay of the land for people that haven't 41 00:01:53,600 --> 00:01:56,200 been in as much of the weeds as we have. 42 00:01:56,200 --> 00:01:58,920 So obviously Pilgrim Minerals buying Latin Resources all 43 00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:05,000 script deal 0.07 Pilbara shares for each Latin resource share. 44 00:02:05,560 --> 00:02:08,000 Now there you know, it wasn't too far off the speculation we 45 00:02:08,000 --> 00:02:10,840 had just last week guys in, in that there was an all script 46 00:02:10,840 --> 00:02:14,960 deal being readied by Pilbara. But you know, given the, the 47 00:02:14,960 --> 00:02:17,600 relative share price outperformance from Pilbara, 48 00:02:17,600 --> 00:02:20,960 that's not a a massive surprise on on anyone sort of part. 49 00:02:21,320 --> 00:02:26,680 The deal values Latin Resources at $0.20 per share or $560 50 00:02:26,680 --> 00:02:33,600 million market cap, $540 million enterprise value using a $2.85 51 00:02:33,680 --> 00:02:36,320 Pilbara share price. So things have come off a little 52 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:38,680 bit since then. The Pilbara share price is off 53 00:02:38,800 --> 00:02:43,080 5% today. So you know that that value has 54 00:02:43,080 --> 00:02:46,800 come down a little bit. You can reword that in, in 55 00:02:46,800 --> 00:02:50,440 another sense and call it 6.4% of the combined entity is going 56 00:02:50,440 --> 00:02:55,920 to be given to Latin resource shareholders in in other sort of 57 00:02:56,520 --> 00:02:59,960 ways of describing the deal. They've put it forward as a 57% 58 00:02:59,960 --> 00:03:06,200 premium to the 10 day V WAP or a 32% premium to the 30 day V WAP. 59 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:09,480 So pretty straightforward scheme that we're talking about here 60 00:03:09,720 --> 00:03:13,400 needs standard approvals as you see on, on the ASX for two ASX 61 00:03:13,400 --> 00:03:16,000 companies. Not as complex as we saw for the 62 00:03:16,000 --> 00:03:20,360 likes of Azure with that kind of dual track structure that was 63 00:03:20,360 --> 00:03:23,840 being operated to kind of fend off the the likes of Gina or 64 00:03:23,840 --> 00:03:26,880 Chris or whoever might interlope in the deal. 65 00:03:27,160 --> 00:03:29,520 And the last bit just on rounding out what the deal is 66 00:03:29,520 --> 00:03:33,240 all about is the major shareholder and board have given 67 00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:35,880 their approval to the deal. That sort of speaks to 13% of 68 00:03:35,880 --> 00:03:38,640 the shares on issue at Latin, and you've got other instos 69 00:03:38,640 --> 00:03:42,920 there, including Regal, Waratah and a couple of institutions out 70 00:03:42,920 --> 00:03:45,240 of Brazil. Yeah, it's isn't funny how 71 00:03:45,360 --> 00:03:48,240 simple of the deals are when there's not as much competition 72 00:03:48,520 --> 00:03:51,440 and the market's down. Very astute, Manny. 73 00:03:51,440 --> 00:03:57,280 Doesn't have to be as funky. JD mate, this is the definition 74 00:03:57,280 --> 00:04:00,400 of counter cyclical and this why This is why it's so interesting. 75 00:04:00,400 --> 00:04:03,840 Give us the mate, you're the lithium market expert. 76 00:04:05,440 --> 00:04:09,560 I'm not so sure about that mate, but we're chatting just, we were 77 00:04:09,560 --> 00:04:12,480 chatting just yesterday and just sort of trading messages about 78 00:04:12,480 --> 00:04:14,480 the, the state of the lithium market. 79 00:04:14,480 --> 00:04:18,079 And obviously it's got everyone in the specific sector up in 80 00:04:18,079 --> 00:04:20,040 arms. And then, you know, more broadly 81 00:04:20,040 --> 00:04:22,920 in the, in the resource sector that we are, everyone's got, you 82 00:04:22,920 --> 00:04:25,960 know, eyes fixed on it and seeing where it's where it's 83 00:04:25,960 --> 00:04:29,120 going to pull out a couple prices because it's still a very 84 00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:32,080 opaque market. And again, these can be just 85 00:04:32,080 --> 00:04:34,800 prices pulled off one or two contracts that have traded or 86 00:04:34,800 --> 00:04:36,880 one contract and a couple people confirming. 87 00:04:37,200 --> 00:04:42,240 But Platts have said 6% spod is changing hands at US770A tonne 88 00:04:42,680 --> 00:04:44,520 fast. Markets have said 800 U.S. 89 00:04:44,520 --> 00:04:46,600 dollars a tonne, that's for, that's for 6%. 90 00:04:46,600 --> 00:04:49,240 Remember most of the people we talk about aren't even churning 91 00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:52,680 out 6% product. I've also seen hydroxide priced 92 00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:57,760 at under 11,000 USA tonne and carbonate at a bit over US 93 00:04:57,800 --> 00:05:00,520 11,000 a tonne. So the same kind of disclaimers 94 00:05:00,520 --> 00:05:03,760 go, it's an opaque market, not much as trading hands. 95 00:05:04,000 --> 00:05:07,480 What we can sort of say is that we've heard a lot of people 96 00:05:07,480 --> 00:05:11,280 talking about inventory buildups that goes right the way through 97 00:05:11,280 --> 00:05:14,320 the supply chain. And of course, on the back of 98 00:05:14,320 --> 00:05:17,320 inventory buildups, you see the prices get whacked. 99 00:05:17,320 --> 00:05:20,600 We've seen the same thing happen with copper in the in the past 100 00:05:20,600 --> 00:05:22,720 few months. Supplies have increased right up 101 00:05:22,720 --> 00:05:26,480 as the demand from China has pulled off a bit and prices just 102 00:05:26,480 --> 00:05:28,680 get whacked on the back of it. Yeah, right. 103 00:05:28,680 --> 00:05:32,160 JD, tell us a bit about Latin. We haven't spoken about them for 104 00:05:32,160 --> 00:05:34,080 a while. We are obviously did when it was 105 00:05:34,080 --> 00:05:35,960 frigging lithium mania last year. 106 00:05:36,240 --> 00:05:39,960 But we better revisit it, mate. Lots happened since then. 107 00:05:39,960 --> 00:05:42,240 They've expanded a lot from where they put it. 108 00:05:42,240 --> 00:05:45,560 Initially that put a study out sort of into last year, 109 00:05:45,560 --> 00:05:46,440 something like. That as well. 110 00:05:46,440 --> 00:05:49,960 PA, preliminary economic assessment. 111 00:05:50,440 --> 00:05:53,400 That's right. September, September of 2023. 112 00:05:53,400 --> 00:05:55,640 I think we actually spoke about it at the time. 113 00:05:55,640 --> 00:05:57,560 So who? Else spoke about it. 114 00:05:57,560 --> 00:05:59,560 JD. This is what we do, isn't it 115 00:05:59,560 --> 00:06:01,800 copper? The Mining News Centre, that's 116 00:06:01,800 --> 00:06:04,280 right. So to, to give people a bit of 117 00:06:04,280 --> 00:06:07,720 scope, we're talking about the, the Salinas project in Minacias 118 00:06:07,720 --> 00:06:10,960 in Brazil. So as Pilbara very keen to 119 00:06:10,960 --> 00:06:13,920 stress that's a, that's a mining region and it, it should be 120 00:06:13,920 --> 00:06:17,880 known to a few people out there given there's ASICS companies 121 00:06:17,880 --> 00:06:21,480 with interests out there, not to mention all the, the majors got 122 00:06:21,480 --> 00:06:23,880 valet and what not operating out there. 123 00:06:24,160 --> 00:06:29,480 The project itself, 78,000,000 tonnes at 1.24%, most of that 70 124 00:06:29,480 --> 00:06:33,480 million tonnes of that is at Colina and the remainder sits 125 00:06:33,480 --> 00:06:35,960 sort of in another deposit 12 kilometres away. 126 00:06:36,560 --> 00:06:40,080 And of that 70 million tonnes, most of it sits in measured and 127 00:06:40,080 --> 00:06:43,240 indicated. Very, very high percent measured 128 00:06:43,240 --> 00:06:45,560 and indicated which is. Yeah, yeah. 129 00:06:45,760 --> 00:06:49,120 So we saw a, we saw a resource upgrade to your point there, 130 00:06:49,120 --> 00:06:54,640 Maddie, in May of this year. And the, the, the real change 131 00:06:54,640 --> 00:06:55,960 there was the increase in confidence. 132 00:06:55,960 --> 00:06:57,880 So you, you know, you do more drilling, tighter spacing and 133 00:06:57,880 --> 00:07:00,240 all that sort of stuff. And that lifted the confidence 134 00:07:00,240 --> 00:07:02,920 that lifted the amount of tonnes that were in the measured and 135 00:07:02,920 --> 00:07:05,840 indicated categories up quite substantially. 136 00:07:05,840 --> 00:07:10,520 They did use AUS 1200 dollar pitch shell to, to, you know, 137 00:07:10,520 --> 00:07:13,200 sort of give them a bit of a guide and put it in a model. 138 00:07:13,200 --> 00:07:15,920 It's an open pit project that we're, we're talking about. 139 00:07:16,160 --> 00:07:19,480 So kind of keep that one in mind as we run through the numbers, 140 00:07:19,480 --> 00:07:22,280 as you kind of get into as well, Maddie, on the actual mechanics 141 00:07:22,280 --> 00:07:25,080 of the, you know, production and the project that they've put 142 00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:27,800 forward. So the I guess the financial 143 00:07:27,800 --> 00:07:30,880 metrics to give you I'll give you a breather for a tick JD 144 00:07:30,880 --> 00:07:33,200 suck a couple of these mate. Please do it. 145 00:07:33,200 --> 00:07:38,480 So MPV 3.6 bill at an 8% discount rate, 100% IRR. 146 00:07:38,480 --> 00:07:43,160 But that was using 717 hundred bucks USA tonne spot. 147 00:07:43,160 --> 00:07:47,480 So obviously considerably below that now, but we're not mining 148 00:07:47,480 --> 00:07:54,520 it for fucking four years. So US $253 million CapEx or US 149 00:07:54,520 --> 00:07:57,640 300 mil if they were going to do phase one and two together. 150 00:07:57,640 --> 00:08:05,800 So I'll see and this is for DMS only that's and we'll we'll get 151 00:08:05,800 --> 00:08:08,720 into that for this project and we'll talk about the 152 00:08:08,720 --> 00:08:11,680 neighbouring projects that have had a bit of success with it. 153 00:08:11,680 --> 00:08:13,680 So. Yeah, that's, that's a great 154 00:08:13,680 --> 00:08:15,760 point. And that ties into a lot of the 155 00:08:15,760 --> 00:08:18,400 the theories that people have out there as to why Pilbara 156 00:08:18,400 --> 00:08:21,320 might be gone for this one. It is interesting to note on the 157 00:08:21,360 --> 00:08:24,320 MPV comment that you make there, Maddie, one of the analysts, the 158 00:08:24,320 --> 00:08:27,400 Baron Joey analysts asked near the end of the call today about 159 00:08:27,400 --> 00:08:31,200 this sort of, you know, the the financial metrics of the deal 160 00:08:31,200 --> 00:08:33,320 and it making sense and how they're paying for it and all 161 00:08:33,320 --> 00:08:36,120 this sort of stuff. And you know, you highlighted 162 00:08:36,120 --> 00:08:40,440 the fact that running through the spot prices gives you an NPV 163 00:08:40,440 --> 00:08:43,159 of less than 500 million. You're paying more than 500 164 00:08:43,159 --> 00:08:45,000 million for the company right now. 165 00:08:45,360 --> 00:08:47,080 Obviously there's a lot of caveats to that. 166 00:08:47,080 --> 00:08:49,560 They're they're paying in script and all these sorts of things. 167 00:08:49,880 --> 00:08:52,880 But it was just interesting to highlight the sensitivity of the 168 00:08:52,880 --> 00:08:57,520 project to the the to spot prices versus the future 169 00:08:57,520 --> 00:08:59,480 projections on the lithium prices. 170 00:08:59,480 --> 00:09:02,680 But I'm sure we'll get into that much more when we get into our 171 00:09:02,680 --> 00:09:05,200 thoughts on the deal itself. Yeah, and they're not like the 172 00:09:05,200 --> 00:09:07,840 General I think didn't Dale said it. 173 00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:11,200 We're we're not mining this until the price is deemed fit to 174 00:09:11,200 --> 00:09:12,680 do so, right? Yeah. 175 00:09:12,680 --> 00:09:15,840 Exactly, so right production side. 176 00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:18,840 So they were going for about half a million tonne of spot 177 00:09:18,840 --> 00:09:22,560 5.2%. So mostly a 5 1/2 percent 178 00:09:22,560 --> 00:09:25,600 product with ASC 3 product as well. 179 00:09:25,600 --> 00:09:29,920 Whether they do like a that SC3 if they sell it or they just 180 00:09:29,920 --> 00:09:33,880 stockpile it and then put a float in later on similar to 181 00:09:33,880 --> 00:09:38,320 what Greenbushes did. I, I actually think it, it's a 182 00:09:38,320 --> 00:09:40,640 good point, Maddie, you raised, I actually think listening to 183 00:09:40,640 --> 00:09:43,440 the way they spoke about it on the call, they'll move away from 184 00:09:43,440 --> 00:09:45,960 this in time. And they're trying to simplify 185 00:09:45,960 --> 00:09:49,320 it because, yeah, I think they'll just focus on that 5.5% 186 00:09:49,320 --> 00:09:51,680 product. And I think you just got to got 187 00:09:51,680 --> 00:09:55,680 to take a lot from this PEA with a grain of salt because a lot 188 00:09:55,680 --> 00:09:59,000 has kind of changed since then. And a lot of the rationale is 189 00:09:59,320 --> 00:10:02,720 Pilbara coming in and being able to use their core competencies 190 00:10:02,960 --> 00:10:06,120 to make the project better than the numbers that are highlighted 191 00:10:06,360 --> 00:10:08,480 in the initial study. Yeah, yeah. 192 00:10:08,600 --> 00:10:14,840 So as you said, JD big open pit and high strip ratio 18 to one 193 00:10:14,840 --> 00:10:16,840 because it's like really it's all like stacked. 194 00:10:17,040 --> 00:10:18,720 You'll see it. It's all these like sort of 195 00:10:18,720 --> 00:10:21,800 stacked lenses. It's not like a big, bloody 196 00:10:21,960 --> 00:10:26,280 massive humdinger. But they're saying coarse grain 197 00:10:26,280 --> 00:10:29,000 spot. So DMS processing only so. 198 00:10:30,560 --> 00:10:32,880 Yeah, I think the the the geology is a great point, 199 00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:34,200 Maddie, how it's kind of stacked. 200 00:10:34,200 --> 00:10:37,120 And there were a few questions again on the call in this one. 201 00:10:37,120 --> 00:10:39,240 You know, everyone can kind of see that, the analysts can see 202 00:10:39,240 --> 00:10:42,440 that and they're a bit alarmed by it, especially when you throw 203 00:10:42,440 --> 00:10:45,000 around terms like tier one. That has got to be the most 204 00:10:45,000 --> 00:10:48,480 overused term in mining. Everyone knows it, but it still 205 00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:49,360 happens. Anyway. 206 00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:54,080 Analysts were quite critical of how it all hangs together and 207 00:10:55,160 --> 00:10:57,480 you know that this wasn't exactly highlighted in the 208 00:10:57,480 --> 00:11:00,200 presentation that no surprise, but there wasn't cross sections 209 00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:02,160 like that in the slide deck today. 210 00:11:02,160 --> 00:11:04,360 But you know, Latin aren't hiding it. 211 00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:06,800 You can see it in the the resource upgrade that came out 212 00:11:06,800 --> 00:11:08,840 in May. We'll we'll chalk up a couple 213 00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:12,320 images so you can see now and obviously we're not geologists, 214 00:11:12,320 --> 00:11:14,440 but it's pretty clear that that is harder to mind. 215 00:11:14,440 --> 00:11:19,280 You said Maddie in 18 to one strict ratio there again, they 216 00:11:19,280 --> 00:11:21,360 said on the call, they're going to try and pull that down. 217 00:11:21,360 --> 00:11:23,800 They think that, you know, they're confident that they can 218 00:11:24,320 --> 00:11:26,680 pull that down. They've remodelled it with the 219 00:11:26,680 --> 00:11:31,640 updated numbers because the the preliminary economic study only 220 00:11:31,640 --> 00:11:35,520 used the initial resource. So that's only 30 odd million 221 00:11:35,520 --> 00:11:36,760 tonnes. That's much smaller. 222 00:11:36,960 --> 00:11:39,720 They've done a lot more work, a lot more drilling since then. 223 00:11:39,720 --> 00:11:41,520 So things are already looking quite different. 224 00:11:42,360 --> 00:11:45,600 I'd also give Pilbara a bit of the benefit of the doubt here, 225 00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:48,240 given that they've, they've got a lot of experience with this. 226 00:11:48,240 --> 00:11:50,880 You know, there are similarities to the ore body that they have 227 00:11:50,880 --> 00:11:54,120 at Pilgangura. They've also integrated all 228 00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:55,680 sorting. They've, they've commissioned 229 00:11:55,680 --> 00:12:01,000 that at Pilgangura and you know that they have spoken to there 230 00:12:01,000 --> 00:12:02,840 being less concerns around the host rock. 231 00:12:02,840 --> 00:12:06,120 It's not as problematic as we might see at other operations 232 00:12:06,120 --> 00:12:08,920 out there, but you know it, it is a challenge that they're 233 00:12:08,920 --> 00:12:11,600 going to have to overcome. And you know, one more thing 234 00:12:11,600 --> 00:12:14,040 working in their favour. We spoke about with another 235 00:12:14,040 --> 00:12:16,600 project earlier in the week, but they have cheap hydropower here. 236 00:12:16,880 --> 00:12:20,000 So it makes processing just a little bit cheaper given that 237 00:12:20,000 --> 00:12:22,800 you you come your nuisance circuit, the energy going in is 238 00:12:22,800 --> 00:12:25,520 one of the biggest costs when it comes to to processing. 239 00:12:25,520 --> 00:12:27,800 If you're getting, you know, if you're paying four or five cents 240 00:12:27,800 --> 00:12:31,800 a kilowatt there, then you know the the costs are a lot more 241 00:12:31,800 --> 00:12:34,320 friendly than they might be in other parts of the world. 242 00:12:34,320 --> 00:12:36,960 Yeah, well, we've seen it with our own odds that building or a 243 00:12:36,960 --> 00:12:40,640 lot the internal docs within the Spodgerbane ore body like it's 244 00:12:40,640 --> 00:12:44,560 something this this sort of stuff is what Pilbara have 245 00:12:44,920 --> 00:12:47,680 always dealt with essentially. Now the all sortings come in, 246 00:12:48,400 --> 00:12:52,000 which is I'm not too up on it, but I assume the more you do 247 00:12:52,000 --> 00:12:54,920 something the better, more reliable it can't becomes. 248 00:12:56,000 --> 00:12:59,200 So yeah, yeah. And then that's what'll need to 249 00:12:59,200 --> 00:13:02,120 be need to be used here. You just got a shit load of GI's 250 00:13:02,120 --> 00:13:05,520 marking the shit up in the pit. Probably the other important 251 00:13:05,520 --> 00:13:10,000 thing as well is you know, this is obviously still all at a PEA 252 00:13:10,160 --> 00:13:13,280 stage, right. So but and you know, the 253 00:13:13,280 --> 00:13:16,160 projects change a fair bit, the lithium mark has changed a bit 254 00:13:16,160 --> 00:13:18,440 since all of this was was put out. 255 00:13:18,440 --> 00:13:21,960 But it'd be very interesting to say what a assuming this all 256 00:13:21,960 --> 00:13:27,120 does go ahead, what a Pilbara branded feasibility study would 257 00:13:27,120 --> 00:13:30,160 look like on this. Yeah, no, I've heard, I've heard 258 00:13:30,160 --> 00:13:35,120 water mightn't be as simple as as it seems over there. 259 00:13:36,480 --> 00:13:39,440 Yeah, that's a, that's another point to, to look at the 260 00:13:39,680 --> 00:13:42,120 comments in the initial study. I went back and had a read they 261 00:13:42,120 --> 00:13:44,080 were, they were fairly muted on that Maddie. 262 00:13:44,080 --> 00:13:48,280 They they spoke about pipe and water from 2 dams in the area. 263 00:13:48,520 --> 00:13:52,960 They also spoke about having a a water recycling plant as part of 264 00:13:52,960 --> 00:13:55,880 the the study off the top of my head that was going to cost them 265 00:13:55,880 --> 00:13:59,720 30 or 40 million bucks. So they talk about that from an 266 00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:03,160 ESG lens, but you could be a bit cynical and say they need the 267 00:14:03,160 --> 00:14:05,080 water that. Yeah, exactly. 268 00:14:05,080 --> 00:14:07,160 Yeah. So the the other big point I 269 00:14:07,160 --> 00:14:09,920 think we have to talk about is the permitting timelines. 270 00:14:09,920 --> 00:14:14,360 And you know, not just as it's applicable to Latin and the 271 00:14:14,360 --> 00:14:18,280 project here, but what the read through is on the permitting 272 00:14:18,280 --> 00:14:20,520 timelines of projects around the world. 273 00:14:20,520 --> 00:14:23,840 So we'll flash up the slide that we were chatting about 274 00:14:23,840 --> 00:14:26,320 internally earlier. And you can see that these guys 275 00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:30,760 mark this as as attractive as it comes in terms of the speed to 276 00:14:30,760 --> 00:14:33,280 permitting. They used the example of Sigma 277 00:14:33,280 --> 00:14:38,400 Lithium and that went in, in roughly sort of four or so years 278 00:14:38,400 --> 00:14:41,840 from the first permitting. I think they had 16 months in in 279 00:14:41,840 --> 00:14:44,000 construction. Yeah, I'll bring, I'll bring up 280 00:14:44,000 --> 00:14:48,040 the I'll bring up the timeline off off Sigma's website. 281 00:14:48,040 --> 00:14:54,920 So like DFS in 2019 and I think started construction 21 finished 282 00:14:54,920 --> 00:14:59,880 Commission in Q123 and achieve commercial production April 283 00:14:59,880 --> 00:15:03,240 2023. So that's lot from from DFS to 284 00:15:03,360 --> 00:15:07,600 and they're in at 9 plate now. I think they pumped out so 285 00:15:07,600 --> 00:15:11,400 they're predicting about I think it was 200 and 270,000 tonnes 286 00:15:11,400 --> 00:15:16,880 spot per annum for stage one. They pumped out 53,000 in Q1 287 00:15:16,880 --> 00:15:21,920 this year. So again, they're DMS only. 288 00:15:21,920 --> 00:15:25,320 So like when you ask about like and that's the the whole thing 289 00:15:25,320 --> 00:15:30,160 is like, is this DMS only a reliable processing option? 290 00:15:30,160 --> 00:15:31,960 And where has it been? Because I saw what happened at 291 00:15:31,960 --> 00:15:34,600 like call lithium. Obviously mount Catlin when they 292 00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:37,720 were going through the finds had really shitty ass recoveries. 293 00:15:40,040 --> 00:15:42,960 Mount Marion. That's effectively DMS only 294 00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:47,320 because the floats there, but I don't think they use it part of 295 00:15:47,320 --> 00:15:49,160 me. So you look at I think Sigma's 296 00:15:49,160 --> 00:15:54,560 the the poster child for DMS only and they from what I've 297 00:15:54,560 --> 00:15:57,640 heard, like I don't think they disclose it, but one analyst 298 00:15:57,640 --> 00:16:02,040 says they get around 65% recovery DMS only and then 299 00:16:02,040 --> 00:16:04,960 obviously have fines coming out as well. 300 00:16:05,320 --> 00:16:09,960 I'm not sure if they sell the SC3 or not, but if you look, if 301 00:16:09,960 --> 00:16:13,160 they so if you can get, I think effectively if you can get 60s 302 00:16:13,560 --> 00:16:18,240 for DMS only look at because pill Gangora got 72% last 303 00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:21,320 quarter, but the quarter before that they got 65% recovery and 304 00:16:21,320 --> 00:16:23,880 that's, that's with flotation and everything. 305 00:16:23,880 --> 00:16:26,680 So and yeah, we all know how long it took to ramp up the 306 00:16:26,680 --> 00:16:31,120 flotation, the extra CapEx. So Sigma's DMS only option, 307 00:16:31,120 --> 00:16:33,840 which was, you know, two years from construction to bloody 308 00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:39,840 commercial production, you'd take, you'd take 60% mid 60s 309 00:16:39,840 --> 00:16:43,520 recovery any day of the week. Like if you, if you can maintain 310 00:16:43,520 --> 00:16:47,000 them consistently through the life of mine for the less CapEx. 311 00:16:47,000 --> 00:16:50,320 So compared to putting a bloody flotation in, fucking around 312 00:16:50,320 --> 00:16:54,000 with it for a year or two and just to maybe get another 5% 313 00:16:54,000 --> 00:16:57,040 recovery, maybe 10%. And the speed to market? 314 00:16:57,120 --> 00:17:00,160 Is Oh yeah, yeah. So this, you know, if the if 315 00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:04,400 this is if Sigma's operation to go by, which is frigging 100 KS 316 00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:08,720 down the road probably looking like that's the way it's going 317 00:17:08,720 --> 00:17:10,480 to go. Yeah, I think it's a a good 318 00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:12,119 point, Maddie. And you can see in the study 319 00:17:12,119 --> 00:17:18,160 they they modelled in for the 5.5% grade product 67%. 320 00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:21,480 So they're they're aiming for in and around the area. 321 00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:25,000 You said on the point of permitting, it's it's super 322 00:17:25,000 --> 00:17:28,079 interesting the speed at which they were able to go from 323 00:17:28,640 --> 00:17:31,800 permitting all the way through to actually producing product. 324 00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:35,600 I think, you know, it'd be, it'd be awesome if the Western world, 325 00:17:35,760 --> 00:17:38,280 not that you know, Brazil is in a developed country, but places 326 00:17:38,280 --> 00:17:40,920 like Canada and places like Australia could learn a thing or 327 00:17:40,920 --> 00:17:44,280 two about a project like Sigma, which is not a tiny project, you 328 00:17:44,280 --> 00:17:48,320 know, it's decent scale project. If they could learn a thing or 329 00:17:48,320 --> 00:17:51,800 two about how we can get our projects online just a little 330 00:17:51,800 --> 00:17:54,600 bit quicker in, you know, the same kind of responsible way, I 331 00:17:54,600 --> 00:17:56,880 think. But I think like North America, 332 00:17:56,880 --> 00:18:01,360 it's whether the regulatory agencies want to get it online 333 00:18:01,360 --> 00:18:05,360 quicker, it's up to the Cree like the the natives like that's 334 00:18:05,360 --> 00:18:09,760 the they're the people that are trying to you've got to convince 335 00:18:09,760 --> 00:18:13,520 to be pro mining, which is. Yeah, you you need buying on a 336 00:18:13,520 --> 00:18:14,840 lot of parts. It's not. 337 00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:17,040 Very, very delicate. Yeah. 338 00:18:17,160 --> 00:18:19,000 Take, take phones away from everyone. 339 00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:20,760 They'll start bloody thinking differently. 340 00:18:22,560 --> 00:18:25,040 It's like you're grounded here. You lost your phone for a week. 341 00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:30,040 Bit of parenting there, right? What do we think of the deal? 342 00:18:30,360 --> 00:18:33,080 There's plenty of varying opinions going around. 343 00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:38,080 There are mate, there there are quite a few different opinions. 344 00:18:38,080 --> 00:18:40,560 I mean, like anecdotally, I'm not sure about you guys have 345 00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:44,320 probably heard a few more negative comments than I have 346 00:18:44,640 --> 00:18:46,240 positive. I mean I. 347 00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:48,840 I I heard more negative this morning. 348 00:18:49,240 --> 00:18:52,040 They've become more positive through the day, people. 349 00:18:52,040 --> 00:18:54,760 Have like digested. Yeah, they're like, yeah, maybe, 350 00:18:55,240 --> 00:18:57,560 yeah. I mean, what what I'd kind of 351 00:18:57,560 --> 00:19:00,280 say is first of all, you can't slag them for being pro 352 00:19:00,360 --> 00:19:02,120 cyclical. So I think it's it's pretty 353 00:19:02,120 --> 00:19:04,440 awesome and it's pretty rare as well that we talk about counter 354 00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:07,760 cyclical deals. So that's a pretty awesome thing 355 00:19:08,080 --> 00:19:10,560 and definitely to all the. People the polar opposite of 356 00:19:10,600 --> 00:19:14,880 Extrada buying Jubilee and the nickel market crashing a week 357 00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:17,280 later. Polar opposite, unfortunately. 358 00:19:17,280 --> 00:19:22,160 Is vagina buying azur? Again through yeah. 359 00:19:22,160 --> 00:19:25,000 And I mean that there are people, you know, still slagging 360 00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:28,560 them about the timing. And I just kind of, you know, go 361 00:19:28,560 --> 00:19:31,080 back to those people and say nobody knows when when lithium's 362 00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:33,160 going to turn around. People were saying it's going to 363 00:19:33,160 --> 00:19:37,600 be up, you know, in at least, you know, over 1500 for years 364 00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:39,600 and years and years to come. And now people saying it's going 365 00:19:39,600 --> 00:19:44,640 to be below 5 or 600 or whatever, 700 for the rest of 366 00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:48,160 the decade as well. So, you know, you take all these 367 00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:51,080 things with a grain of salt because it's super, super hard 368 00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:54,040 to predict where commodity prices are going, but they're 369 00:19:54,040 --> 00:19:56,920 roundabout in in the right sort of ballpark of doing a deal at a 370 00:19:56,920 --> 00:20:00,520 time when the commodity price is down over 90%. 371 00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:03,880 Remember when it remember when it shit itself at the start of 372 00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:07,200 the year, JD and like talking to the talking to everyone on the 373 00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:11,720 desk and everything. The consensus was it it could be 374 00:20:11,720 --> 00:20:16,800 6 to 18 months before it's sort of all stabilises and 375 00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:20,480 inventories drop and we might say something again and we're 376 00:20:20,480 --> 00:20:23,120 effectively only six and a bit months into that. 377 00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:25,480 That's right since it was the highest. 378 00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:28,720 So like, it's still a. Bit to go. 379 00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:31,000 Still a bit to go. Could it could could turn around 380 00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:33,280 soon, could be still more to go. But as I said, it's fucking 381 00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:36,120 significantly. These equities are significantly 382 00:20:36,120 --> 00:20:39,280 cheaper than they were frigging 6 to 9 months ago. 383 00:20:39,280 --> 00:20:41,560 Yeah. Yeah, one of the what? 384 00:20:41,840 --> 00:20:45,960 Sorry, I was just going to say one thing to add to your point 385 00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:51,440 earlier, JD, is I think people forget that, you know, Pilbara 386 00:20:51,440 --> 00:20:54,520 aren't doing some sort of merger of vehicles here where they're 387 00:20:54,520 --> 00:21:00,560 diluting, you know, a shit tonne of their capital to get this 388 00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:04,720 asset. It's barely 7% of the enlarged 389 00:21:04,920 --> 00:21:08,040 group, right? And it's an, you know, it's a 390 00:21:08,040 --> 00:21:11,600 call option on when things do get better. 391 00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:16,760 It adds what? What was it, something like 30% 392 00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:20,160 to their production profile. Potentially 50%. 393 00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:22,440 Or potentially. 50 right? Right. 394 00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:29,960 So I, you know, if I'm an investor, which I am, I'd rather 395 00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:34,840 them do a deal now and have the call option and exercise that 396 00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:40,600 when they're ready, the market's ready, etcetera, rather than buy 397 00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:43,920 something at the top of the market at, you know, something 398 00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:47,120 equivalent to their market cap. And then, oh, then the lithium 399 00:21:47,360 --> 00:21:49,040 price, you know, crumbles in this set. 400 00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:52,520 And the other side, obviously it's not as as simple as that, 401 00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:57,360 but that's, that's just one view purely from a a, a call option 402 00:21:57,360 --> 00:21:59,600 or shares on issue dilution perspective. 403 00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:03,920 And look, if you're a Latin shareholder, like you wouldn't 404 00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:05,360 think so. This game's going to go. 405 00:22:05,360 --> 00:22:08,040 If it goes through, it'll go through by late November, early 406 00:22:08,040 --> 00:22:11,000 December. Like if you're holding Latin 407 00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:15,880 shares at bloody in the low teens, like, would you expect 408 00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:20,840 the lithium market to recover 55% by November, December? 409 00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:25,320 Probably a bit of a bloody bet. I think Friggin, you know, 410 00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:28,800 right, things are going possibly, not likely could 411 00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:32,920 happen, but you'd be, you'd be taking the Pilbara Piper right 412 00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:37,240 now and that gives the funding solution to develop Salinas. 413 00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:41,480 So you're not like there's no, no big debt, no big debt, no big 414 00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:44,760 cap raise needed. You're getting a 55% premium, 415 00:22:44,760 --> 00:22:46,320 you're not getting diluted anymore. 416 00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:49,680 And yeah, so it's, I think it's a good deal for the Latin 417 00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:52,080 shareholders at the time of the market right now. 418 00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:55,520 I think, I think you're spot on with with I think 20 million in 419 00:22:55,520 --> 00:22:58,880 cash when I last looked from the the latest quarterly, you know, 420 00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:01,280 you could you sure as bet before the end of the year, they would 421 00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:05,800 have been diluting again back on on Pilbara to to round out the 422 00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:09,480 thoughts on the deal there. One of the knocks that you know, 423 00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:12,640 is pretty genuine is that they're obviously now no longer 424 00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:15,920 a pureplay WA producer. They're exposed to a different 425 00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:18,680 part of the world, assuming the deal goes through. 426 00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:22,280 And maybe that does cost them a bit of their premium valuation. 427 00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:24,640 People mark it down slightly because it's Brazil. 428 00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:26,280 You know, there's been a few companies that have gone over 429 00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:27,320 there and they've struggled a bit. 430 00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:29,200 It's not everyone's kind of cup of tea. 431 00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:32,040 So that that one does hold a bit of weight to it. 432 00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:35,200 And interesting to hear on the call that Dale was not really 433 00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:38,920 eager to talk down any further inorganic growth. 434 00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:41,640 You know, he wasn't out and out saying, no, we're not doing any 435 00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:44,200 more M&A. So it was just interesting the 436 00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:46,880 the wording on that, on that front. 437 00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:49,720 Yeah, I think I think it's the end of because it's early. 438 00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:51,720 So as you said, they're not really, it's not like they're 439 00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:54,960 going freaking balls deep into it right now, right where bloody 440 00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:57,240 we're going to start building, we're going to start doing this 441 00:23:57,240 --> 00:23:59,240 because obviously when that happens, like with the different 442 00:23:59,240 --> 00:24:03,480 time zone, like it's you're not, you need extra teams. 443 00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:07,160 It's a lot of extra, lot of extra work to like start working 444 00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:10,320 in two jurisdictions. But I don't think they're going 445 00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:12,520 to be pulling the trigger too quickly. 446 00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:15,120 It doesn't sound like they'll do can do much for two years, to be 447 00:24:15,120 --> 00:24:18,160 honest, in terms of progressing it towards being built until 448 00:24:18,160 --> 00:24:20,720 they are confident of a of a price recovery. 449 00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:21,520 So. Yeah. 450 00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:24,080 Like like we said before the call it, it was initially 451 00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:26,360 flagged to to be producing by 2026. 452 00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:28,720 That's just not going to happen. That was also kind of factored 453 00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:31,240 into brokers models that this would kind of come online. 454 00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:33,760 So, so you know, one other way of looking at it is that there's 455 00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:37,600 sort of supply coming out of the market or expected supply coming 456 00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:40,560 out of the market. They were very firm in saying 457 00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:42,880 that they're going to bring this one online when the time is 458 00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:45,360 right, when the market can absorb the tonnes that they're 459 00:24:45,360 --> 00:24:47,640 going to produce. And yeah, you're going to get 460 00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:50,840 people marking down the the value of this in the portfolio 461 00:24:50,840 --> 00:24:54,680 of, you know, projects and assets that Pilbara have. 462 00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:57,360 That was going to be the case if they took on any undeveloped 463 00:24:57,360 --> 00:24:58,840 deal. Yes, there's going to be a fair 464 00:24:58,840 --> 00:25:02,480 bit of CapEx that needs to be spent down the road, but at 465 00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:05,200 least that's in the hands of Pilbara now, right? 466 00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:08,000 They can hopefully get the permitting done much sooner than 467 00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:10,560 they would in other jurisdictions and they can 468 00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:13,880 choose when they can go forward with it as opposed to being 469 00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:19,280 handcuffed until 28/20, 9:30 because of whoever Maddie, like, 470 00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:21,960 like you kind of say, whether that's the the government or 471 00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:25,720 other sort of shackles that you have in getting the project 472 00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:28,680 online. And it's been given and it's 473 00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:31,400 been given to them resource ready like a shit load of 474 00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:34,760 drillings being put into this, hence why the measured and 475 00:25:35,240 --> 00:25:39,400 indicated level of the resource. Like probably too late to now 476 00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:41,560 because it's been so much drilling done a drill like a 477 00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:45,080 drill for equity arrangement with K drill, but probably could 478 00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:48,280 have saved a bit of capital previously if they did go down 479 00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:51,760 that road. But doesn't really matter now 480 00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:53,040 because they're getting bored anyway. 481 00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:55,760 So don't Jay. So it doesn't mean any other 482 00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:59,880 mining companies out there in the gold fields can't like get 483 00:25:59,880 --> 00:26:04,960 in early now and give old Drew Barbie a call to maybe talk 484 00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:08,680 about, you know, the exploration drill and maybe drill for equity 485 00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:11,560 AJD. Hang on mate, these guys are 486 00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:13,680 going to have to do a bit more. You know, I mean, there's plenty 487 00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:16,440 of companies out there, but you want to turn this all into into 488 00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:19,440 a reserve one day caterer is the the team you want. 489 00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:20,760 Well. And look, because it's a pretty 490 00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:23,400 simple process, like you, you know, drove his numbers in the 491 00:26:23,400 --> 00:26:25,720 show night. You give him a ring, he'll pop 492 00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:28,760 down, come have a couple of pints, talk some drilling, talk 493 00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:31,360 opportunities. Before you know you'll have a 494 00:26:31,360 --> 00:26:34,800 mill mineral resource filled with RC and diamond holes, but 495 00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:38,280 he of the highest standard, all on the back of having a point 496 00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:40,360 with Droba. And a great mate. 497 00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:43,360 Just a mate, he's a friend for life that follow. 498 00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:47,320 That's right JD, what about Sigma? 499 00:26:47,440 --> 00:26:52,600 So we talked about Sigma, the, I guess you'd say the OG lithium 500 00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:56,200 producer in Brazil. Yeah, Sigma is an interesting 501 00:26:56,200 --> 00:26:59,480 right, because they've been kind of shopping themselves with a, 502 00:26:59,880 --> 00:27:03,440 with a for sale sign hanging out the front for a while. 503 00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:06,920 It was, you know, you know, very explicit in, in how they were 504 00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:07,920 kind of promoting it for a while. 505 00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:10,760 It hasn't happened yet. Obviously the the stocks come 506 00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:14,240 off quite a bit like it has with every other lithium stock out 507 00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:17,160 there. But I mean, you, you took a dive 508 00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:21,200 into what they're actually churning out at Sigma there. 509 00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:23,200 Why don't you run through that and then we can kind of cover if 510 00:27:23,480 --> 00:27:25,840 if there is something down the track with projects tying up 511 00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:28,240 together? Yeah, like that and that's I 512 00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:30,840 guess the comment going around is like right, is this a bit of 513 00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:34,240 a stepping stone to a bit of further consolidation in Brazil? 514 00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:37,120 Like look Sigma, they're looking to expand or said they're about 515 00:27:37,120 --> 00:27:40,640 two 50,000 tonne per annum at the moment or 270. 516 00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:43,400 I think it was looking to expand for phase two and throw it up to 517 00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:50,480 766,000 tonne of spod per annum. So like, yeah, so and then you 518 00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:55,760 got Selena's PEI forecasts like, you know, 4 to 500,000 tonne of 519 00:27:55,760 --> 00:27:58,640 spods. So combine that one day with 520 00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:02,400 Sigma, like there's over a potentially over a million tonne 521 00:28:02,400 --> 00:28:06,400 of spod coming out of those two projects in Brazil, in addition 522 00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:12,200 to Bill Gangora potentially expanding to 2,000,000 tonne in 523 00:28:12,560 --> 00:28:16,600 the probably the far future beyond the the P-1000 level. 524 00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:21,360 So like that's the, that would be the biggest fucking spot 525 00:28:21,360 --> 00:28:24,960 producer in the world. That's like shit, like if all 526 00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:29,680 that piece together, if that's like the long term plan, it's 527 00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:34,480 that's becoming yeah, it's that's whether they're doing 528 00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:36,640 this to like think, right. Either way, either we do 529 00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:40,240 something now so we don't get bought by Rio or something. 530 00:28:40,240 --> 00:28:44,080 We have to get bigger to make ourselves bigger and more 531 00:28:44,080 --> 00:28:46,720 defensible. Yeah, I mean it, it's a super 532 00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:49,200 interesting point you raised Maddie, the the idea of 533 00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:52,440 expanding pill Gangura and whether that is actually what 534 00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:54,600 they should have prioritised. I'm sure that's what a few 535 00:28:54,600 --> 00:28:57,440 people are asking at the moment. So obviously they chucked out 536 00:28:57,440 --> 00:29:02,640 the study for P2000 not too long ago that a CapEx of 1.2 billion 537 00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:05,680 as we kind of ran through there was hundreds of millions of 538 00:29:05,680 --> 00:29:08,920 dollars that were not included in that 1.2 billion. 539 00:29:08,920 --> 00:29:13,120 So it was, you know, very capital intensive, obviously 540 00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:17,560 adding a lot of a lot of tonnes, but it didn't receive the 541 00:29:17,760 --> 00:29:21,000 warmest reception from the market at time just sheerly 542 00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:23,800 because of that price tag and because of the fact that they 543 00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:27,920 were talking about expanding again in an oversupplied market. 544 00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:30,480 Now you have to think they've obviously compared to the the 545 00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:32,960 two here. And if you, if you look at it 546 00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:36,120 kind of crudely, we're talking about half a billion Aussie to 547 00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:40,840 buy Latin add in, call it another half a billion in CapEx, 548 00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:45,360 half cash, half paper and you're potentially getting 500,000 549 00:29:45,360 --> 00:29:50,280 tonnes per annum at 5.2% down the track, You know, all up a 550 00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:52,400 billion. It it does on, on those kind of 551 00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:56,120 metrics, again, very, very kind of rough and timelines are a bit 552 00:29:56,120 --> 00:29:59,280 different and all these sorts of things, but one does look a bit 553 00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:01,080 more appealing than the other. Yeah. 554 00:30:01,240 --> 00:30:04,080 And this is probably like the, the smaller bite that they've 555 00:30:04,080 --> 00:30:09,360 taken here, I think was probably the lowest risk option for them. 556 00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:13,120 So the market didn't burn them for so called bad M&A. 557 00:30:13,120 --> 00:30:15,640 Like it's not I I don't think you can never call counter 558 00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:19,040 cyclical M&A, bad M&A. Bad M&A is the jubilee example 559 00:30:19,120 --> 00:30:22,120 that we gave before like buying something at the top of the 560 00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:24,720 market like, but you know, that's what the you know, the 561 00:30:25,000 --> 00:30:28,280 the high short interest was in place likely for you know, the 562 00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:31,720 natural lithium hedge, but also the potential they were going to 563 00:30:31,720 --> 00:30:36,080 do a deal and they have but it's not I just said six and a bit 564 00:30:36,080 --> 00:30:39,520 percent shares on issue. It's not fucking. 565 00:30:39,520 --> 00:30:41,720 Yeah, it wasn't. It wasn't a sweep at Arcadian or 566 00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:44,080 something. No, in saying that it was, I 567 00:30:44,080 --> 00:30:47,400 think people were still sort of surprised, like, oh, Latin, like 568 00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:51,320 they're thinking, oh, but why not a, you know, a payment or or 569 00:30:51,320 --> 00:30:54,640 something like that. But I mean, we'll probably go 570 00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:57,520 through that in a bit more detail now as far as, you know, 571 00:30:57,520 --> 00:31:02,400 even like a line town or Wildcat or something, but which are 572 00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:05,360 bigger. But you know, each of them have 573 00:31:05,360 --> 00:31:08,600 got their own sort of things to to look at as well, which, you 574 00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:12,480 know, on paper might look more interesting. 575 00:31:12,480 --> 00:31:16,800 But as far as ability to execute is a bit of a different story. 576 00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:19,880 Well, like Wildcats probably you got, you know, I mean Rose 577 00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:22,520 sitting there with 20%. So that's just difficulty 578 00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:24,640 straight away. Longtown, you got Gina sitting 579 00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:27,600 there, so that's difficulty. Paymate. 580 00:31:27,600 --> 00:31:28,960 You got Trudeau sitting there. Oh. 581 00:31:29,160 --> 00:31:33,200 Big truths. Well, yeah, paymates the that's 582 00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:35,080 the interesting one because everyone's oh, Pilbara should 583 00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:37,400 buy Paymetal Pilbridge should do this site, buddy. 584 00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:41,800 But if you look at well, that's why I'm up together Latin verse 585 00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:46,120 payment payments market caps currently sits a bit below 700 586 00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:48,680 mil Aussie was frigging 2 1/2 billion. 587 00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:51,960 So that's how much that one's come off so similar premium to 588 00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:53,600 this. That's like a what, one point 589 00:31:53,640 --> 00:32:00,240 one $1.2 billion deal probably if you look at the ore bodies, 590 00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:05,000 probably a lot more lithium at Shaka Chewy Wana. 591 00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:06,560 Is that how you bloody pronounce it? 592 00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:08,360 You. Gave it a crack, Matty. 593 00:32:08,600 --> 00:32:13,960 That's the main thing, Shaka. Chewy Wana and and a lot thicker 594 00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:16,880 like you'd you'd take the ore body over the Latin one. 595 00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:20,680 But as you said, look at Sigma's timeline DFS to commercial 596 00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:23,760 production four years. So getting, getting a bit of a 597 00:32:23,760 --> 00:32:27,560 foothold in Brazil, which is just is, is such a low lower 598 00:32:27,560 --> 00:32:30,800 barrier to entry to get a project permitted and built 599 00:32:31,000 --> 00:32:34,600 compared to Quebec. That's just unfortunately how it 600 00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:36,800 is. And for the, for what they're 601 00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:39,120 going to spend on it and the amount of spot to come out of 602 00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:43,720 Salinas, if, if it's, if it's delayed a bit and it's not, it's 603 00:32:43,720 --> 00:32:46,680 not going to be that hugely impactful on Pilgrim Minerals. 604 00:32:46,680 --> 00:32:50,800 I don't, I don't think like 4 or 5004 or 500,000 tonne. 605 00:32:51,040 --> 00:32:54,240 So it's not going well. And it's like 100,000 tonne 606 00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:55,200 less. They're already going to be 607 00:32:55,200 --> 00:32:57,960 producing a million now to pill Gangora. 608 00:32:57,960 --> 00:33:02,080 So it's not like a massive material bloody impact if it 609 00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:05,160 doesn't ramp up. So it's just like combining all 610 00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:07,760 that. It's such a lower a lower risk 611 00:33:07,760 --> 00:33:11,520 option and but then gives them the opportunity to potentially 612 00:33:11,520 --> 00:33:14,120 inorganically grow with Sigma as well. 613 00:33:14,480 --> 00:33:17,320 And I think that's just the bet they're making. 614 00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:19,640 They've they're betting on Brazil versus Quebec. 615 00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:25,360 Yeah, I think that's a that's a good analysis to to kind of make 616 00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:27,760 those, those permitting timelines just really, really 617 00:33:27,760 --> 00:33:30,040 stand out. I don't and who knows if payment 618 00:33:30,040 --> 00:33:33,880 would have actually done a deal with them at at at this stage. 619 00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:38,920 So look ex Pilgrim minerals Ken Brisden he's he's just moved 620 00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:43,120 over to Quebec because he came on as payment top dog start of 621 00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:45,520 the year. So if you look at his actual 622 00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:48,880 bloody, you know, if I'm running a bloody mining company, I'm 623 00:33:48,880 --> 00:33:51,120 thinking about right, how do I make money out of this? 624 00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:53,600 But it's pretty, pretty bloody self set. 625 00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:55,800 That's yeah, that's what I'll be doing. 626 00:33:56,800 --> 00:33:58,440 So a. Couple opies to reprice. 627 00:33:58,440 --> 00:34:02,920 If there's a change of control he pockets 2 years salary so 628 00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:07,040 that's about a mil plus another up to a mil for the short term 629 00:34:07,040 --> 00:34:09,080 incentive bonus. So two years worth. 630 00:34:09,560 --> 00:34:13,239 So you know to like you wouldn't sneeze at 2,000,000. 631 00:34:13,520 --> 00:34:16,440 But his real money is in his options. 632 00:34:16,560 --> 00:34:20,360 So he's got 450,000 Opies at 9 bucks 78. 633 00:34:20,360 --> 00:34:21,800 So they're well out of the money. 634 00:34:22,120 --> 00:34:26,440 Well out of the money, their share price is 4 bucks 43 and 635 00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:29,679 then there's another 450,000. I think they're priced about 636 00:34:29,679 --> 00:34:32,360 seven. It was based on the price of 637 00:34:32,360 --> 00:34:34,400 when he came in. So I think they're about 7 638 00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:37,560 bucks. So even a 60% odd premium at 639 00:34:37,560 --> 00:34:42,159 today's payment price on top of what it is like they might be 640 00:34:42,159 --> 00:34:44,360 just in the money, but he wouldn't make much out of it. 641 00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:49,560 So his, his incentive is to wait for a lithium turn around and 642 00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:53,679 probably in the meantime keep drilling progress, the bloody 643 00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:58,000 traditional owner relationships and the permitting and and all 644 00:34:58,000 --> 00:35:00,440 that sort of things. Unless there's a freaking turn 645 00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:02,360 around and a huge offer that comes their way. 646 00:35:02,360 --> 00:35:05,560 So I couldn't, I couldn't say. I'm doing a deal with Pilbara at 647 00:35:05,560 --> 00:35:08,480 the moment anyway. So they might have asked and he 648 00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:09,920 said no. Well, good mate, cheers. 649 00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:13,760 Yeah, I, I think you spot on in in your comments there, Maddie. 650 00:35:13,760 --> 00:35:18,360 When you when you compare all the options out there, taking in 651 00:35:18,360 --> 00:35:21,480 everything into account, it kind of makes a lot more sense that 652 00:35:21,480 --> 00:35:24,800 Latin's the one they went for. Obviously it was unexpected to 653 00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:27,520 to me and a few others though. What do you what do you think 654 00:35:27,520 --> 00:35:30,480 about all script JD when they got shit load of cash there 655 00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:33,440 already? It just makes sense. 656 00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:37,040 I think look at the relative outperformance with Pilbara and 657 00:35:37,040 --> 00:35:41,080 every other company out there it, it just makes perfect sense. 658 00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:44,280 The the cash is precious. When you're in a cyclical market 659 00:35:44,280 --> 00:35:46,800 and you're in a downturn, you don't want to waste that. 660 00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:49,280 So I think that's very much the the right decision. 661 00:35:49,360 --> 00:35:51,520 Yeah. And like just cause Pilbara 662 00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:55,040 share price down as you said relatively it is done a lot 663 00:35:55,040 --> 00:35:57,560 better than everyone else. So you could say technically 664 00:35:57,560 --> 00:36:00,200 their script is still overvalued in a lithium market. 665 00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:03,440 So yeah, get it out. It's all relative. 666 00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:07,840 All, all relative bloody. I think that's it. 667 00:36:08,040 --> 00:36:11,160 I think we've covered. Bloody just, that's everything 668 00:36:11,160 --> 00:36:15,120 you need to know, I reckon. There were a few other comments, 669 00:36:15,120 --> 00:36:18,280 you know on on the call and in the presentations and stuff 670 00:36:18,280 --> 00:36:21,640 about sort of diversifying themselves geographically, being 671 00:36:21,640 --> 00:36:24,480 able to sell into other markets, you know, perhaps less mature 672 00:36:24,480 --> 00:36:26,960 markets in in Europe and in the US. 673 00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:29,160 That's a bit of a tweaking of the style. 674 00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:31,720 You know, obviously they've they've got off take that goes 675 00:36:31,720 --> 00:36:34,360 to Asia right now that all changes. 676 00:36:34,720 --> 00:36:36,240 Yeah, I think that that's kind of interesting. 677 00:36:36,240 --> 00:36:39,800 But I think we've we've covered most of the kind of key details 678 00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:43,560 behind the deal there. Yeah, good stuff, Good stuff. 679 00:36:43,560 --> 00:36:46,000 I'll I like it. I like it. 680 00:36:46,000 --> 00:36:47,640 Go to Africa now. Yeah, finally. 681 00:36:47,640 --> 00:36:50,560 Like we've always been saying fuck when, when everything's 682 00:36:50,560 --> 00:36:52,400 cheap, when's people going to do deals? 683 00:36:52,440 --> 00:36:54,840 And it's happening. Pilbara have had frigging cash 684 00:36:54,840 --> 00:36:57,320 for ages, even though they haven't used any of it for this. 685 00:36:57,680 --> 00:37:01,280 But I reckon it's like being a pretty disciplined approach. 686 00:37:01,640 --> 00:37:03,600 So yeah. Yeah, interesting to see the 687 00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:06,160 market. Goes to 200 bucks a tonne but. 688 00:37:08,040 --> 00:37:09,240 For now. For now, it does. 689 00:37:09,240 --> 00:37:12,720 Not go the mining industry. They're all buggered anyway if 690 00:37:12,720 --> 00:37:13,600 that happens. Mate. 691 00:37:13,680 --> 00:37:15,160 They might as well go out swinging, yeah? 692 00:37:15,520 --> 00:37:18,600 Exactly right, JC, Onto the peas. 693 00:37:18,720 --> 00:37:21,680 Onto the Peas, Perseus and predictive. 694 00:37:21,680 --> 00:37:26,240 So we saw aftermarket yesterday. Perseus made a strategic 695 00:37:26,240 --> 00:37:28,320 investment. Let's put the inverted commas 696 00:37:28,320 --> 00:37:31,600 around that, our quotation marks rather in a predictive 697 00:37:31,600 --> 00:37:34,720 discovery. Apparently you know it already. 698 00:37:34,720 --> 00:37:38,040 Was so word on the word on the decline actually, actually and I 699 00:37:38,040 --> 00:37:39,920 think this is I don't know if he's knew this. 700 00:37:39,920 --> 00:37:45,320 So tell us what what sort of sparked this investment was that 701 00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:51,680 I think Perseus got wind that MMS were being looked at to go 702 00:37:51,680 --> 00:37:55,000 actually do the mining services contract in Guinea for 703 00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:56,280 predicting? Heading to Guinea? 704 00:37:56,280 --> 00:37:58,920 Yeah, so they've, they've thought, fuck, we better pounce 705 00:37:58,920 --> 00:38:03,360 on this before this thing runs away, 'cause mate, once the desk 706 00:38:03,360 --> 00:38:06,160 gets rolling, like, like she can just go. 707 00:38:06,160 --> 00:38:07,400 You know the power of the desk. Oh. 708 00:38:07,480 --> 00:38:10,600 Mate, the algos just start bloody the things just it's like 709 00:38:10,600 --> 00:38:14,400 a tornado. So mate, 'cause it's probably on 710 00:38:14,400 --> 00:38:19,720 the back of the what MMS have done for Black Cat at that miree 711 00:38:19,720 --> 00:38:22,000 project. Like have a look at this first. 712 00:38:22,000 --> 00:38:25,040 Or delivered two months ahead of schedule. 713 00:38:25,040 --> 00:38:28,160 Look at the fucking dirt flying into those trucks. 714 00:38:28,240 --> 00:38:30,800 Geez, you don't see that often. It's normally, you know, 10 715 00:38:30,800 --> 00:38:34,520 months behind set schedule. No, if all the bloody analysts 716 00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:37,240 listening like mate, you Chuck that in your model, pull the 717 00:38:37,640 --> 00:38:40,960 first production forward two months in your cash flow time 718 00:38:40,960 --> 00:38:44,360 value of money that is worth millions in the future, Chuck it 719 00:38:44,360 --> 00:38:47,280 like the discount rate like freaking unbelievable. 720 00:38:47,280 --> 00:38:51,280 So pretty much if you want to, if you want to get your first or 721 00:38:51,280 --> 00:38:54,280 at least two months ahead of schedule like MMS are the time 722 00:38:54,280 --> 00:38:57,200 to do it. So MMS and look at this and look 723 00:38:57,320 --> 00:39:02,000 and it's materially converted into a investment in predictive 724 00:39:02,000 --> 00:39:03,280 by Perseus. So there. 725 00:39:03,600 --> 00:39:05,120 You go. Are you going, are you going to 726 00:39:05,120 --> 00:39:10,800 go into the first thing we saw about this Perseus predictive 727 00:39:10,800 --> 00:39:12,360 thing? I'm going to say I'm going to 728 00:39:12,360 --> 00:39:15,400 save that fun fact for right at the end. 729 00:39:15,640 --> 00:39:18,520 That fun fact the the one on the iris screen? 730 00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:20,440 Oh. Oh no, that one's, that one's 731 00:39:20,440 --> 00:39:22,240 coming very, very soon. Yeah, that's in. 732 00:39:22,240 --> 00:39:23,240 So I'll look. Forward to that one. 733 00:39:23,720 --> 00:39:28,000 So first, so first let's let's set the scene right. 734 00:39:28,600 --> 00:39:33,680 So for those who don't know Perseus, there are roughly 3 1/2 735 00:39:33,680 --> 00:39:39,880 billion market cap Aussie listed African gold producer. 736 00:39:39,880 --> 00:39:46,120 They produce over 500,000 oz a year between three mines, Edican 737 00:39:46,120 --> 00:39:51,120 in Ghana, yeah, Oray in Cote d'Ivoire and Sissingwe in Cote 738 00:39:51,120 --> 00:39:53,400 d'Ivoire as well. So here's a map of where they 739 00:39:53,400 --> 00:39:57,880 all are. They also have the Myer Sandgold 740 00:39:57,880 --> 00:40:02,520 project, which is previously known as Block 14 in Sudan when 741 00:40:02,520 --> 00:40:05,320 they acquired Orca Gold back in 2022. 742 00:40:05,880 --> 00:40:08,600 Unfortunately, there was a, you know, big outbreak of 743 00:40:08,600 --> 00:40:12,840 hostilities in Sudan last year, which has been a pretty big set 744 00:40:12,840 --> 00:40:16,240 back for the project there. So Perseus have sort of 745 00:40:16,240 --> 00:40:19,000 deferred. ID until the situation sort of 746 00:40:19,000 --> 00:40:20,960 settles down there. So they're just at the moment 747 00:40:20,960 --> 00:40:24,600 it's a very low level drilling and study sort of activities 748 00:40:24,600 --> 00:40:27,440 there. More recently though, they've 749 00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:32,680 been in the press for acquiring O Corp for about USA 150 million 750 00:40:32,680 --> 00:40:38,960 bucks and they have the Nianzaga asset in Tanzania and they did 751 00:40:38,960 --> 00:40:41,320 that deal earlier this year and that was a bit of a competitive 752 00:40:41,320 --> 00:40:42,920 process. Oh, the Battle of Nianzaga. 753 00:40:43,000 --> 00:40:45,120 The Battle of Nianzaga. Silver Corp. 754 00:40:45,200 --> 00:40:46,840 Yeah. So good times. 755 00:40:47,640 --> 00:40:52,280 So that's got a 2.6 million oz, all reserves, around 2 grammes, 756 00:40:52,640 --> 00:40:54,680 all the key licences are granted. 757 00:40:55,040 --> 00:41:00,960 They did ADFS of a couple years ago showing a production profile 758 00:41:00,960 --> 00:41:05,720 of of about 234,000 oz per annum over 10 years. 759 00:41:05,720 --> 00:41:12,320 That's a bit of open bit and underground and at the time at 760 00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:16,720 this mind you this is at a a gold price of US 1750 an ounce. 761 00:41:17,040 --> 00:41:24,200 It had a post tax MPV five of US 618,000,000 and a CapEx of US 762 00:41:24,520 --> 00:41:27,880 474,000,000. Now just pop that in the back of 763 00:41:27,880 --> 00:41:30,280 your mind for for for later. Yeah, so. 764 00:41:30,440 --> 00:41:33,360 Bit over one to one. Yeah, bit over one to one, which 765 00:41:33,360 --> 00:41:37,080 again for for single asset companies and you know if your 766 00:41:37,080 --> 00:41:42,240 market caps a lot less than the CapEx can create a bit of 767 00:41:42,320 --> 00:41:44,120 difficulty. They're trying to get funding. 768 00:41:44,200 --> 00:41:45,760 I can see you're building up a narrative. 769 00:41:45,760 --> 00:41:48,440 I'm building up the narrative. We're going on a journey, 770 00:41:48,440 --> 00:41:52,080 Matthew. So there's an updated 771 00:41:52,080 --> 00:41:54,600 feasibility study being prepared by now. 772 00:41:54,600 --> 00:41:59,080 The Perseus team who owned Nanzaga expected later this 773 00:41:59,080 --> 00:42:02,640 year, doing a lot more drilling, feed studies, all of that. 774 00:42:02,880 --> 00:42:06,280 FID is expected at the end of the year and targeting first 775 00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:10,720 gold in early 2027. There's also the CMA 776 00:42:10,800 --> 00:42:13,040 Underground. They've got a Yayari, which is a 777 00:42:13,040 --> 00:42:16,160 key growth project for them. They're starting a portal sort 778 00:42:16,160 --> 00:42:20,800 of mid next year with first production anticipated mid 2026. 779 00:42:20,840 --> 00:42:24,240 First first ever underground mining coat for that one is that 780 00:42:24,240 --> 00:42:26,360 that was from our episode the other week. 781 00:42:26,360 --> 00:42:30,520 They have to, like Perseus Help and Cote d'Ivoire developed the 782 00:42:30,520 --> 00:42:33,920 regulatory regulatory framework around Underground Morning 783 00:42:34,040 --> 00:42:35,680 'cause it's never been done good. 784 00:42:35,960 --> 00:42:37,280 On you. Good on your Perseus. 785 00:42:37,280 --> 00:42:38,600 Go Perseus. Go Australia. 786 00:42:38,600 --> 00:42:41,280 Go Cote d'Ivoire. Go West Africa. 787 00:42:42,840 --> 00:42:46,920 So and stepping back on more the, the, the corporate level, 788 00:42:47,480 --> 00:42:51,560 Percy's made almost US $500 million in cash flow in the last 789 00:42:51,560 --> 00:42:53,600 financial year. And they've got a history of 790 00:42:53,600 --> 00:42:56,320 achieving or exceeding guidance since 2020. 791 00:42:56,320 --> 00:43:01,560 So the last four years and they've got US 587 million in 792 00:43:01,560 --> 00:43:06,160 cash and bullying and no debt. And I mean, look, look at this 793 00:43:06,160 --> 00:43:09,520 graph here, right? This is shows their sort of 794 00:43:09,520 --> 00:43:13,920 production profile over the last four years and their realised 795 00:43:13,920 --> 00:43:16,480 gold price and all the sustaining and that margin 796 00:43:16,480 --> 00:43:19,640 between the gold price and all the sustaining has just 797 00:43:19,640 --> 00:43:23,680 continued to to grow in. You know, we know, we all know, 798 00:43:23,680 --> 00:43:26,320 we've talked about it quite extensively, the cost inflation 799 00:43:26,320 --> 00:43:29,720 environment we've been in recently. 800 00:43:29,720 --> 00:43:31,840 And now look, it has ticked up a little bit, but you know, 801 00:43:31,840 --> 00:43:35,120 relative to the gold price that's super, super impressive. 802 00:43:36,000 --> 00:43:38,360 So now let's move on to predictive. 803 00:43:38,840 --> 00:43:42,800 They're about 1/2 a billion market cap company listed on 804 00:43:42,800 --> 00:43:46,600 ASICS as well and they're a W African gold developer and their 805 00:43:46,600 --> 00:43:49,680 main asset is the bank and gold project in Guinea. 806 00:43:49,680 --> 00:43:54,440 So they've got 85% of that and Guinea, you've got the balance 807 00:43:54,440 --> 00:43:57,840 of that asset. So they actually put out a 808 00:43:57,840 --> 00:44:03,520 maiden mineral resource on that only three years ago of 3.65 809 00:44:03,640 --> 00:44:08,920 million oz. Today that resource stands out 810 00:44:08,920 --> 00:44:13,920 just sharp, 5.4 million ounces of which 77 percents indicated. 811 00:44:14,840 --> 00:44:18,960 And they also put a a maiden or reserve out earlier this year as 812 00:44:18,960 --> 00:44:24,560 well of just over 3 million oz mostly open pit, but some 813 00:44:24,560 --> 00:44:31,040 underground as well. They put the PFS out on bank an 814 00:44:31,880 --> 00:44:35,280 earlier this year in April, which outlined a 12 year my 815 00:44:35,280 --> 00:44:42,600 life, almost 270,000 oz a year at 1.8 grammes per tonne per of 816 00:44:42,600 --> 00:44:45,160 gold. To give some context, this is 817 00:44:45,160 --> 00:44:51,240 about 30,000 ounces more than Nanzaga, which Percy has just 818 00:44:51,240 --> 00:44:55,600 acquired, and 50,000 oz per annum more than Wolf's Kiaka, 819 00:44:55,600 --> 00:44:59,480 which is currently in construction and development. 820 00:45:00,080 --> 00:45:06,400 So this PFS showed it of an MPV 5 which I hate in MPV 5, but 821 00:45:06,400 --> 00:45:08,240 let's just roll with it in West Africa. 822 00:45:08,240 --> 00:45:11,440 In West Africa in. Guinea, West Africa in a high 823 00:45:11,480 --> 00:45:16,480 interest rate environment. Just anyway, I'll just get too 824 00:45:16,480 --> 00:45:23,200 upset you and that's that and that's at spot you. 2300 US gold 825 00:45:23,200 --> 00:45:32,880 price is US 1.4 billion CapEx of US $456,000,000 and that's for a 826 00:45:32,880 --> 00:45:35,080 five and a half million tonne per annum plant. 827 00:45:35,640 --> 00:45:39,120 Now they say in their presentation, oh, you know, it's 828 00:45:39,120 --> 00:45:41,800 a really low capital intensity per oz, but I think the better 829 00:45:41,800 --> 00:45:46,960 measure is MPV to CapEx ratio. I'm very much a firm believer 830 00:45:46,960 --> 00:45:50,400 it's always margin over oz. Doesn't matter how much you're 831 00:45:50,400 --> 00:45:52,600 doing, as long as you're making money off them, that's all 832 00:45:52,600 --> 00:45:54,920 people care about. Unless you'd be HP and Rio. 833 00:45:55,000 --> 00:45:57,720 They don't. They they love they love 10% 834 00:45:57,720 --> 00:45:59,680 IRS. Oh, that's stunning. 835 00:45:59,800 --> 00:46:03,960 So if you do do an MPV CapEx ratio, this is mind you at spot, 836 00:46:03,960 --> 00:46:11,080 it's around a three times ratio. So 456,000,000 US CapEx is 837 00:46:11,080 --> 00:46:15,480 currently a fair bit more than the predictive market cap. 838 00:46:15,480 --> 00:46:20,360 So again, this is a little bit analogous to all Corp Nans Argo 839 00:46:20,360 --> 00:46:23,080 when they put their study out a couple of years ago. 840 00:46:24,360 --> 00:46:26,800 Obviously there's there's still a lot more work to do on that to 841 00:46:26,800 --> 00:46:31,720 optimise it, convert more of that inventory from resource 842 00:46:31,720 --> 00:46:35,640 into reserve, leveraging some some of the grid power in Guinea 843 00:46:35,640 --> 00:46:39,160 which they reckon could save another US 100 bucks an ounce on 844 00:46:39,160 --> 00:46:41,920 their all. Sustaining what's the timeline 845 00:46:41,920 --> 00:46:44,880 they have on, you know, the next three or four steps? 846 00:46:45,480 --> 00:46:49,480 Yeah, so. The the timeline is second half 847 00:46:49,480 --> 00:46:52,880 of this year. They're expecting their sort of 848 00:46:52,880 --> 00:46:56,600 approvals of their exploitation permit, which was essentially 849 00:46:56,600 --> 00:47:01,120 like a mining permit, then ADFS sort of the year after 850 00:47:01,640 --> 00:47:06,360 construction in sort of 27 and then production in 28. 851 00:47:07,200 --> 00:47:11,440 But arguably the most important thing for Predictive now is 852 00:47:11,440 --> 00:47:15,560 securing this exploitation or mining permit given the assets 853 00:47:15,560 --> 00:47:20,320 location in what's called a peripheral zone of the Upper 854 00:47:20,320 --> 00:47:24,120 Nigeria National Park. So have a look at this map here. 855 00:47:24,240 --> 00:47:26,800 So it's like it's a real grey area job, isn't it? 856 00:47:26,800 --> 00:47:29,360 It's in. It's right on this fringe. 857 00:47:29,560 --> 00:47:31,480 Literally right on the fringe, right? 858 00:47:31,480 --> 00:47:34,760 Just makes it bloody. It'll be just annoying. 859 00:47:35,080 --> 00:47:37,640 Yeah. So I mean look it's you can see 860 00:47:37,640 --> 00:47:42,320 in the top right hand corner there where North East bank and 861 00:47:42,320 --> 00:47:45,880 and bank and central are. So they're on that right sort of 862 00:47:45,880 --> 00:47:51,200 peripheral area there. So Predictive actually put a bit 863 00:47:51,200 --> 00:47:54,160 of a detailed announcement out on this back in 2021, but 864 00:47:54,160 --> 00:48:02,080 essentially that peripheral zone mining of mineral deposits is 865 00:48:02,200 --> 00:48:06,080 not permit, not permitted at this stage. 866 00:48:06,280 --> 00:48:09,840 However, there are precedence in Guinea for mining permits to be 867 00:48:10,160 --> 00:48:13,720 granted in environmentally sensitive areas. 868 00:48:14,520 --> 00:48:19,040 The submission of the PFS early this year and they also 869 00:48:19,040 --> 00:48:23,000 submitted their what's called an environmental and social impact 870 00:48:23,040 --> 00:48:27,120 assessment to the Guinea government is a really important 871 00:48:27,120 --> 00:48:31,720 part of securing this permit, which as we sort of said 872 00:48:31,720 --> 00:48:35,240 earlier, we're anticipating sometime in the second half of 873 00:48:35,240 --> 00:48:36,960 this year. Yeah, right. 874 00:48:37,400 --> 00:48:42,280 So they're they're obviously not taking a full swing at them, but 875 00:48:44,240 --> 00:48:46,240 they want to be in the game. They got their foot on the 876 00:48:46,240 --> 00:48:51,440 throat now. 100% So now if we're taking that context into what 877 00:48:51,440 --> 00:48:54,800 was what was announced the other day. 878 00:48:54,800 --> 00:48:58,760 So Perseus appeared to have taken a bit of a leaf out of the 879 00:48:58,760 --> 00:49:03,880 Remelius playbook with a 13.8% strategic investment in 880 00:49:03,880 --> 00:49:07,000 predictive. So they acquired about 325 881 00:49:07,000 --> 00:49:11,520 million shares at $0.21 per share from JB Boynton and other 882 00:49:11,520 --> 00:49:17,520 entities linked to the investor and the driller, roughly about a 883 00:49:17,520 --> 00:49:22,440 $68 million Australian outlay for Perseus. 884 00:49:23,000 --> 00:49:27,920 Persis also have an additional almost 3 1/2 percent economic 885 00:49:27,920 --> 00:49:32,080 interest or about 81,000,000 shares in predictive by way of 886 00:49:32,080 --> 00:49:38,000 cash settled equity swaps, which brings their sort of total 887 00:49:38,000 --> 00:49:42,080 interest, if you want to call it to just over 17% if you include 888 00:49:42,080 --> 00:49:43,760 the swaps. I've got a question. 889 00:49:43,880 --> 00:49:47,800 Yes, what the fuck is a cash settled equity swap JC? 890 00:49:48,280 --> 00:49:52,240 I feel like this is that moment in the Big Short where they pan 891 00:49:52,240 --> 00:49:54,640 to someone else to explain a really complicated. 892 00:49:54,800 --> 00:49:56,280 Finance to Where's Margot Robbie? 893 00:49:56,280 --> 00:49:58,760 Where's? Margot Robbie Oh Jay. 894 00:49:58,760 --> 00:50:01,800 So I had to, I actually had to find a friend on this one 895 00:50:01,800 --> 00:50:05,640 because it is it is a bit of a complex 1 to explain simply. 896 00:50:05,640 --> 00:50:11,800 So essentially what it is, is an investment bank, you know, like 897 00:50:11,800 --> 00:50:15,320 a, you know, Citibank or Baron Joey or JP Morgan or whatever, 898 00:50:15,960 --> 00:50:19,920 holds the shares on their own account and has legal title to 899 00:50:19,920 --> 00:50:24,600 these shares on behalf of a client who has a contract with 900 00:50:24,600 --> 00:50:28,760 the bank that to essentially get economic exposure to the shares 901 00:50:28,760 --> 00:50:34,160 without physically holding them. The clients in this case, Percy 902 00:50:34,160 --> 00:50:38,520 will say, hey, he's, you know, IB over here, here's cash, can 903 00:50:38,520 --> 00:50:42,840 you and here's an agreement. I want, you know, so many PDI 904 00:50:42,840 --> 00:50:48,560 shares, the bank holds, acquires them and holds them on the 905 00:50:48,560 --> 00:50:53,880 bank's account. And Percy's has that economic 906 00:50:53,880 --> 00:50:57,920 exposure to those, those PDI shares. 907 00:50:57,920 --> 00:51:01,560 So the voting rights of those shares actually sit with the IB. 908 00:51:01,560 --> 00:51:05,520 But there's typically when I mean saying IB, I'm referring to 909 00:51:05,520 --> 00:51:08,960 investment bank, but typically there's some sort of arrangement 910 00:51:08,960 --> 00:51:12,960 that where the bank would sort of just, you know, abstain from 911 00:51:12,960 --> 00:51:15,680 voting or just vote with whatever the proxy says and and 912 00:51:15,720 --> 00:51:17,520 things like that. So I think, I think it's the way 913 00:51:17,520 --> 00:51:21,200 and I think we talked about it in the Remelius Spartan thing 914 00:51:21,200 --> 00:51:23,520 when they were trying to figure out where all those bloody 915 00:51:23,520 --> 00:51:25,720 shares went. So they can, they can 916 00:51:25,720 --> 00:51:32,920 effectively hold 9.9% of a company without being touted as 917 00:51:32,920 --> 00:51:36,200 a notified to be a substantial shareholder 'cause they can have 918 00:51:36,200 --> 00:51:40,760 4.9 and a bit in their own name and not be as substantial. 919 00:51:40,760 --> 00:51:45,840 Then they can have say 4.9% on swap and say they've effectively 920 00:51:45,840 --> 00:51:48,160 got 10%, but no one knows they're a substantial 921 00:51:48,160 --> 00:51:49,680 shareholder yet. No, that's right. 922 00:51:49,680 --> 00:51:54,480 So it's probably is is that? So Perseus have had a. 3.45% 923 00:51:54,480 --> 00:51:58,320 swap in place prior to this stake. 924 00:51:58,600 --> 00:52:00,000 Yes, that's right. So. 925 00:52:00,320 --> 00:52:02,360 So they've been on the register effectively. 926 00:52:02,560 --> 00:52:05,000 Yeah. So it's, it's, it's a super 927 00:52:05,000 --> 00:52:11,280 common way where you can sort of build a position in a stock a 928 00:52:11,280 --> 00:52:16,360 little bit more on the down low. So covert op, a bit of a COVID 929 00:52:16,360 --> 00:52:20,440 op, and we'll get into that a little bit more later as well. 930 00:52:20,920 --> 00:52:22,840 I think it was funny when you I actually read that. 931 00:52:22,840 --> 00:52:24,640 What is a cash settled equity swap? 932 00:52:24,640 --> 00:52:25,600 What? What the hell is that? 933 00:52:25,800 --> 00:52:28,800 But I just know it as swap. Yeah, they just say, ah, we got 934 00:52:28,800 --> 00:52:30,120 them on swap. Got them on swap. 935 00:52:30,280 --> 00:52:31,840 That's what they say on the desk now. 936 00:52:33,960 --> 00:52:35,440 You're all in on the lingo, Maddie. 937 00:52:35,680 --> 00:52:42,000 Oh I love. It right, So what a so we we saw 938 00:52:42,000 --> 00:52:44,440 something very interesting yesterday afternoon, the 939 00:52:44,720 --> 00:52:47,240 execution of the block trade itself. 940 00:52:47,680 --> 00:52:52,240 So now look, everyone, everyone's all had moments of 941 00:52:52,240 --> 00:52:56,080 stuff and shit up at the office. It always happens where where no 942 00:52:56,080 --> 00:53:00,480 one's gonna be into it. But this was just a classic case 943 00:53:00,480 --> 00:53:02,840 of fat fingers on the keyboard, right? 944 00:53:03,120 --> 00:53:05,440 This is a carton. This is what you define as. 945 00:53:05,560 --> 00:53:07,800 That's a carton. I think it's probably about six 946 00:53:07,800 --> 00:53:14,480 cartoons maybe so not once, but twice if you look, have a look 947 00:53:14,480 --> 00:53:16,360 at this. Let's have a look at the first 948 00:53:16,360 --> 00:53:19,160 screenshot here. What do you say is the problem, 949 00:53:19,160 --> 00:53:21,760 Maddie? OK, so that's that's Perseus. 950 00:53:22,080 --> 00:53:26,760 And so there's, which is trading at $2.48, but then there's been 951 00:53:26,760 --> 00:53:33,120 an attempt to block trade 294,000,000 shares at $0.21. 952 00:53:34,160 --> 00:53:36,520 Yep. And then the sort of further one 953 00:53:36,640 --> 00:53:38,680 later now obviously. And they tried again. 954 00:53:38,680 --> 00:53:42,720 Then they tried 17.8 million at. That didn't work, so they 955 00:53:43,080 --> 00:53:45,160 quickly reversed. Yeah, Yeah. 956 00:53:45,160 --> 00:53:49,440 So they quickly reversed them, thankfully, and then put them in 957 00:53:49,440 --> 00:53:54,040 the right company, which was Perseus acquiring predictive 958 00:53:54,040 --> 00:53:56,200 shares, not Perseus buying Perse. 959 00:53:56,480 --> 00:53:58,320 Yeah, Anyway, predictive buying person. 960 00:53:58,440 --> 00:54:00,920 Oh God, too many pays. So they got. 961 00:54:00,920 --> 00:54:02,240 For him, there it was. A pays. 962 00:54:02,280 --> 00:54:03,880 Probably buggered that person up. 963 00:54:03,880 --> 00:54:04,960 It's just too many. Pays. 964 00:54:05,000 --> 00:54:07,400 It's too many pays. Oh God, that would have been. 965 00:54:07,400 --> 00:54:10,960 Imagine the yelling. 'S Oh, I'd be a bit scared, but 966 00:54:12,240 --> 00:54:16,560 so they got there eventually the the the block trade got executed 967 00:54:16,960 --> 00:54:20,680 and we saw very properly after that the announcement come out 968 00:54:20,680 --> 00:54:23,000 on ASX about the strategic investment. 969 00:54:23,000 --> 00:54:25,440 But Maddie? But if you, if you, if you look 970 00:54:25,440 --> 00:54:29,120 into the weeds there Ali and and I'm sure you did the digging you 971 00:54:29,120 --> 00:54:32,160 can, you can see that there was a bit of action going on going 972 00:54:32,160 --> 00:54:34,680 back a few months now, right? No, that's right. 973 00:54:34,680 --> 00:54:39,640 So this is, we'd seen sort of back in the appendix of the 974 00:54:40,040 --> 00:54:43,760 change of substantial holder notice Percy's had been sort of 975 00:54:43,760 --> 00:54:47,840 buying small parcels of predictive on market since you 976 00:54:47,840 --> 00:54:52,160 know early April this year. But even prior to that, they'd 977 00:54:52,160 --> 00:54:56,240 been building their swap position from as early as 978 00:54:56,240 --> 00:55:00,960 September 23, sort of building that up sort of steadily till 979 00:55:00,960 --> 00:55:05,400 till June of this year to where they've announced it at about 3 980 00:55:05,400 --> 00:55:08,720 1/2 percent. They've got on swap of 981 00:55:08,720 --> 00:55:12,880 predictive as well. So who's who are they buying the 982 00:55:12,880 --> 00:55:14,680 shares of? Tell us about this character. 983 00:55:14,960 --> 00:55:16,680 OK this. Is interesting. 984 00:55:17,160 --> 00:55:21,200 So there's, there's again in the, it's all, all the juicy 985 00:55:21,200 --> 00:55:23,600 stuffs in the appendices, Madam Jade. 986 00:55:24,320 --> 00:55:29,240 So in that appendix, there's, there's three sale agreements in 987 00:55:29,240 --> 00:55:31,320 there. And from what I can tell those 988 00:55:31,560 --> 00:55:36,120 sale agreements in those terms, they're effectively, you know, 989 00:55:36,440 --> 00:55:40,600 replicas of each other as other than the, you know, the sellers 990 00:55:40,600 --> 00:55:43,200 themselves. So the first one, we've got 991 00:55:43,480 --> 00:55:48,960 Jamie Boynton, 59 million shares of Predictive BPM Investments, 992 00:55:48,960 --> 00:55:53,960 28 million shares of Predictive, which Jamie is a sole beneficial 993 00:55:54,120 --> 00:55:58,400 odour of. And then you've got roughly 225 994 00:55:58,400 --> 00:56:02,440 million Predictive shares held by Capital Limited. 995 00:56:02,760 --> 00:56:07,480 Jamie Boynton is the the chair of capital, which is they're a 996 00:56:07,480 --> 00:56:12,200 London listed drilling company around 300, three, 150 million 997 00:56:12,200 --> 00:56:15,600 market cap. He's also a major shareholder 998 00:56:15,880 --> 00:56:19,320 according to the last annual report, about 10% of capital. 999 00:56:20,600 --> 00:56:24,200 And then, as an aside, Jamie is also a substantial holder of 1000 00:56:24,480 --> 00:56:27,960 Weir Gold. So Jamie Jamie's got a big 1001 00:56:27,960 --> 00:56:29,640 guard. On he's got a bit going on. 1002 00:56:29,640 --> 00:56:36,920 So with respect to the capital component of of this sale, he's 1003 00:56:36,920 --> 00:56:40,040 recused himself from all dealings with those particular 1004 00:56:40,040 --> 00:56:41,840 shares. So the, the, the board's sort of 1005 00:56:42,120 --> 00:56:45,760 dealt with that separately, but he for his as far as his 1006 00:56:45,760 --> 00:56:49,920 personal shares with in his own name and in BPM, he's 1007 00:56:49,920 --> 00:56:53,560 essentially accepted the the same terms as negotiated by 1008 00:56:53,800 --> 00:56:59,760 capital for, for those holdings looking at capital actually made 1009 00:56:59,760 --> 00:57:04,280 an announcement around the sale of their PDI shares. 1010 00:57:04,760 --> 00:57:08,320 There's sort of applying a lot of those proceeds to reduce debt 1011 00:57:08,320 --> 00:57:10,600 levels and sort of recycle through the business. 1012 00:57:10,600 --> 00:57:13,320 And Predictive is also a drilling client. 1013 00:57:13,520 --> 00:57:17,200 Of capital God now this was the next bit was very interesting 1014 00:57:17,200 --> 00:57:20,760 that I've never seen before in the sale agreement yeah so. 1015 00:57:21,160 --> 00:57:23,600 There's some, there's some interesting terms in there which 1016 00:57:23,600 --> 00:57:27,640 I hadn't, I didn't think was super common until it was sort 1017 00:57:27,640 --> 00:57:30,920 of pointed out to me. A few other examples, but the 1018 00:57:30,920 --> 00:57:33,280 key ones in there is there's a profit share. 1019 00:57:33,840 --> 00:57:36,760 So I'm just going to. Clock MMS. 1020 00:57:37,000 --> 00:57:40,560 Yeah, like, yeah, just like MMS. So I'm going to, I'm going to 1021 00:57:40,560 --> 00:57:45,200 group the three, the three sellers into a group here just 1022 00:57:45,200 --> 00:57:46,760 for the sake of explaining the term. 1023 00:57:46,760 --> 00:57:50,600 So the sellers and Perseus have got a profit share arrangement 1024 00:57:50,600 --> 00:57:57,040 whereby they will share 5050 of the profit if Perseus sells any 1025 00:57:57,040 --> 00:58:01,920 of the acquired shares in PDR to a third party, whether that's 1026 00:58:01,960 --> 00:58:05,600 you know, privately as part of a third party change of control 1027 00:58:05,600 --> 00:58:12,040 transaction and this sort of condition or clauses in place 1028 00:58:12,040 --> 00:58:14,520 until the 31st of December next year. 1029 00:58:14,960 --> 00:58:19,480 There's also a call option. And so if Perseus makes a 1030 00:58:19,480 --> 00:58:25,120 takeover offer for Predictive prior to 31st December next year 1031 00:58:25,720 --> 00:58:29,480 at a price greater than $0.21, which is what they acquired the 1032 00:58:29,480 --> 00:58:33,760 shares for, then the sellers can acquire back those shares they 1033 00:58:33,760 --> 00:58:38,120 sold and accept the offer. At the price they sold them for. 1034 00:58:39,360 --> 00:58:42,720 I think so, yes. And then or cancel the call 1035 00:58:42,720 --> 00:58:44,520 option for a cash for equal to the premium. 1036 00:58:44,520 --> 00:58:49,760 So I think the way I understand that is essentially what this 1037 00:58:49,760 --> 00:58:56,400 means is these sellers maintain some level of upside optionality 1038 00:58:56,440 --> 00:59:01,600 in the event that Perseus or some other third party deal 1039 00:59:01,600 --> 00:59:06,720 occurs at higher than $0.21 by the end of next year. 1040 00:59:06,720 --> 00:59:08,160 Yeah. So they're like, right, If you 1041 00:59:08,160 --> 00:59:11,160 want a strategic position in predictive, the only way you're 1042 00:59:11,160 --> 00:59:14,440 getting it is my shares. But it's on these conditions, if 1043 00:59:14,440 --> 00:59:16,240 you sell them, I get half the profits. 1044 00:59:16,520 --> 00:59:19,880 And if you take them out, take us over, I'm going to get the 1045 00:59:19,880 --> 00:59:21,840 same upside as I would if I kept them. 1046 00:59:22,080 --> 00:59:23,800 Yeah. Look at you. 1047 00:59:24,280 --> 00:59:26,400 Oh boy, knees all over it. I like him. 1048 00:59:26,400 --> 00:59:30,880 Take Me Out for dinner, Copper. Yeah, Interesting, right, buddy? 1049 00:59:31,200 --> 00:59:33,200 Jesus Christ, you say? I can see why you freaking 1050 00:59:33,200 --> 00:59:36,440 needed to go for a walk. You go on date comma. 1051 00:59:36,440 --> 00:59:40,800 Go on date. So what's so like Percy? 1052 00:59:40,800 --> 00:59:44,280 This has happened pretty quickly after the frigging all Corp 1053 00:59:44,280 --> 00:59:46,280 transaction. No, that's right. 1054 00:59:46,280 --> 00:59:51,920 And, you know, as far as what it means for Perseus, you know, if 1055 00:59:51,920 --> 00:59:55,640 they wanted to go the full way, I mean, you know, they've 1056 00:59:55,800 --> 00:59:58,320 they've they've said actually what we should have sort of 1057 00:59:58,320 --> 01:00:01,080 flagged early as well that there's no, you know, subject to 1058 01:00:01,080 --> 01:00:03,360 the whole usual tease. And there's no current intention 1059 01:00:03,360 --> 01:00:07,240 to, you know, make a takeover offer for predictive. 1060 01:00:07,240 --> 01:00:09,280 They're not currently in discussions with the predictive 1061 01:00:09,280 --> 01:00:11,880 all the rest of it. But should they want to go ahead 1062 01:00:11,880 --> 01:00:14,040 and do that? I mean bank hand sort of fits 1063 01:00:14,040 --> 01:00:18,200 perfectly into that sort of. Percy's targeted portfolio of, 1064 01:00:18,280 --> 01:00:22,800 you know, a 200,000 oz plus producer high margin asset in 1065 01:00:22,800 --> 01:00:27,480 Africa, as we sort of touched on at the start, you know, Percy's 1066 01:00:27,480 --> 01:00:31,880 focus for 25 and 26 would still be that, you know, CMA 1067 01:00:31,880 --> 01:00:36,080 underground at Yarra and the construction me in Saga with 1068 01:00:36,080 --> 01:00:37,920 first Golden 27. So you know, they've got plenty 1069 01:00:37,920 --> 01:00:42,120 to keep them busy, but assuming you know, they did do a deal 1070 01:00:42,160 --> 01:00:45,760 with Predictive, you can envisage, you know, maybe a 28 1071 01:00:46,240 --> 01:00:52,640 or 29 sort of sort of first gold for bank can and you know a 1072 01:00:52,640 --> 01:00:57,120 production profile, you know, approaching 750,000 ounces. 1073 01:00:58,000 --> 01:01:00,680 I think it's, it's like it's first in, first in the door at 1074 01:01:00,680 --> 01:01:03,960 the moment. Like I think there's a bit 1075 01:01:03,960 --> 01:01:05,800 happening now. Everyone's like, right, 1076 01:01:06,320 --> 01:01:09,880 Companies are thinking everything's cheap enough to 1077 01:01:09,880 --> 01:01:12,800 start getting a bit up and now look at what we talked about 1078 01:01:12,800 --> 01:01:14,440 today. No. 100% it's time in the 1079 01:01:14,440 --> 01:01:16,880 market. JC it's time and fired up. 1080 01:01:17,480 --> 01:01:23,040 And I mean, I think as far as you know, why they've structured 1081 01:01:23,040 --> 01:01:26,080 it this way and you know, perhaps they've learnt some 1082 01:01:26,240 --> 01:01:29,360 lessons about the sort of the silver court back and forth for 1083 01:01:29,360 --> 01:01:32,200 all court, you know, so sort of let's calling it doing a 1084 01:01:32,200 --> 01:01:36,040 Remelius, locking in a stake now, locking in the optionality 1085 01:01:36,040 --> 01:01:38,520 now. There's absolutely no as we've 1086 01:01:38,520 --> 01:01:41,360 just said, they've got plenty going on in the next few years. 1087 01:01:41,360 --> 01:01:43,480 So there's no need to rush to act now. 1088 01:01:44,000 --> 01:01:47,200 They can take over predictive if they want later when they're 1089 01:01:47,200 --> 01:01:50,520 ready or if someone else bids, they can make their life 1090 01:01:50,520 --> 01:01:55,720 difficult to and or you know, sell into their deal, outbid 1091 01:01:55,720 --> 01:01:59,880 them whole raft of options. It gives them sort of 1092 01:01:59,880 --> 01:02:04,320 approaching it in this way and in this structure as well. 1093 01:02:04,320 --> 01:02:07,160 What about for predictive? Do you think it's positive or 1094 01:02:07,160 --> 01:02:09,600 negative? I think it's very positive. 1095 01:02:09,600 --> 01:02:12,440 I mean, it's just sort of, I mean, the whole Percy's 1096 01:02:12,440 --> 01:02:15,440 predictive thing is, is not awfully new. 1097 01:02:16,600 --> 01:02:20,000 You know, people sort of pitch that idea multiple times. 1098 01:02:20,000 --> 01:02:25,080 But I sort of made that, you know, a bit of a more, you know, 1099 01:02:25,080 --> 01:02:29,680 a bit more of reality now. I think it's honestly a matter 1100 01:02:29,680 --> 01:02:33,960 of when, not if for a predictive takeover. 1101 01:02:33,960 --> 01:02:37,640 Whether it is, you know, Perseus, you know is logical, it 1102 01:02:37,640 --> 01:02:40,600 could be someone else. I think, I think this does the 1103 01:02:40,600 --> 01:02:46,520 only negative is that it might be a disincent. 1104 01:02:47,200 --> 01:02:50,280 Disincentive is that a word? Disincentivize competitive 1105 01:02:50,280 --> 01:02:53,760 tension just got, you know, once they once they got the foot on 1106 01:02:53,760 --> 01:02:59,880 it, it's like, right, that might just deter other companies 1107 01:03:00,040 --> 01:03:02,120 having a crack because they're like, fuck, we're going to waste 1108 01:03:02,120 --> 01:03:04,520 all this time. And Percy's have already got the 1109 01:03:04,520 --> 01:03:08,160 stake and the the power over it. So that that's that's one is so 1110 01:03:08,160 --> 01:03:12,360 they're sort of bit from column a bit from column BA little bit, 1111 01:03:12,560 --> 01:03:15,160 as you said, that the logical company take them anyway. 1112 01:03:15,440 --> 01:03:18,400 So it's like if they could have sat there with no one going for 1113 01:03:18,400 --> 01:03:19,640 them. No, that's right. 1114 01:03:19,640 --> 01:03:22,720 That's right. And I think the, the important 1115 01:03:22,720 --> 01:03:25,840 thing of you know, or the more probably the interesting thing 1116 01:03:25,840 --> 01:03:29,800 of why now, you know, banking is, is still yet to receive it's 1117 01:03:30,400 --> 01:03:33,560 exploitation permit, which like we said it's we're expecting 1118 01:03:33,560 --> 01:03:36,400 later this year. Persy is taking an interest in 1119 01:03:36,400 --> 01:03:41,240 them now sort of probably months before they're expecting. 1120 01:03:41,240 --> 01:03:47,560 This permit surely indicates some level of confidence that 1121 01:03:48,840 --> 01:03:50,600 that that permitting will be received. 1122 01:03:50,600 --> 01:03:54,000 I mean, I imagine Perseus would be pretty sensitive about 1123 01:03:54,000 --> 01:03:57,480 geopolitical risk given what happened in Sudan last year. 1124 01:03:57,480 --> 01:03:59,400 So they'd definitely be doing the homework. 1125 01:03:59,400 --> 01:04:01,440 But still, it's never a guarantee. 1126 01:04:01,440 --> 01:04:03,560 Till the till the fat lady sings. 1127 01:04:03,680 --> 01:04:07,160 Like they're looking at the work they're doing is like holy snap 1128 01:04:07,160 --> 01:04:08,600 and duck shit. It can set them up for the 1129 01:04:08,600 --> 01:04:11,960 future if they get this gown and Zaga gown in addition to their 1130 01:04:12,200 --> 01:04:15,040 existing operations and diversifying themselves across 1131 01:04:15,040 --> 01:04:17,760 Africa. Making the plays now while the 1132 01:04:18,080 --> 01:04:22,680 market's getting hated a bit, which is explorers and 1133 01:04:22,680 --> 01:04:25,600 developers are getting hated, but that might start changing 1134 01:04:25,600 --> 01:04:27,160 soon. So getting in now is probably a 1135 01:04:27,160 --> 01:04:29,240 fucking good move. Would you call it another 1136 01:04:29,240 --> 01:04:30,760 counter cyclical plane? Oh, that's. 1137 01:04:31,360 --> 01:04:33,920 Counter cyclical at a record high gold prices which is 1138 01:04:33,920 --> 01:04:37,200 freaking weird. Yeah, what do you reckon, JD? 1139 01:04:38,200 --> 01:04:40,360 I think we we might be stretching the counter cyclical 1140 01:04:40,360 --> 01:04:43,120 term, but you're dead right. The the junior end or the 1141 01:04:43,120 --> 01:04:45,640 smaller end of the market's been beaten up To your question 1142 01:04:45,640 --> 01:04:48,520 Maddie on do you think it's positive when you asked Ali 1143 01:04:48,520 --> 01:04:52,040 before you know, you asked that question to the market out there 1144 01:04:52,040 --> 01:04:53,880 and you can see the answers are pretty emphatic. 1145 01:04:54,040 --> 01:04:57,120 Yes. You know 18% up is the share 1146 01:04:57,120 --> 01:05:00,280 price reaction today. That's you know, what does that 1147 01:05:00,280 --> 01:05:04,720 add another 100 or so million on to the on to the market cap. 1148 01:05:04,720 --> 01:05:07,720 You can see people are pretty excited and you know, I, I 1149 01:05:07,720 --> 01:05:09,000 thought there'd be a little bump. 1150 01:05:09,000 --> 01:05:12,240 I'm, I'm surprised it's up kind of so much given that, like you 1151 01:05:12,240 --> 01:05:14,200 say, Ali, you don't know when it's going to happen. 1152 01:05:14,200 --> 01:05:16,600 Is it going to be 6 months, 12 months, two years? 1153 01:05:17,040 --> 01:05:21,120 But the conversation around Perseus has changed quite a bit 1154 01:05:21,120 --> 01:05:22,920 now. I think it was only 6 odd months 1155 01:05:22,920 --> 01:05:25,960 ago, Maddie, we were chatting about Perseus and we were like, 1156 01:05:25,960 --> 01:05:29,640 shit, you know, this is this unfortunate stuff has played out 1157 01:05:29,640 --> 01:05:31,560 in Sudan. What are they going to do for 1158 01:05:31,560 --> 01:05:33,680 growth? Now all of a sudden they've got 1159 01:05:33,680 --> 01:05:37,120 all court, you know that, that that's all gobbled up, that's 1160 01:05:37,120 --> 01:05:39,320 done and they've got their foot on another one. 1161 01:05:39,320 --> 01:05:42,400 So the narrative has changed in, you know, a relatively short 1162 01:05:42,400 --> 01:05:46,000 amount of time. Bloody good work, JD. 1163 01:05:46,280 --> 01:05:50,120 Good work, JC. That was freaking in detail, I 1164 01:05:50,160 --> 01:05:50,520 think. Yeah. 1165 01:05:51,160 --> 01:05:53,680 Did you get deep? And you're like, shit, Now I'm 1166 01:05:53,680 --> 01:05:54,280 like, what have I? Done. 1167 01:05:54,280 --> 01:05:56,600 Now I've got to commit no. I've I've got too far. 1168 01:05:57,280 --> 01:06:01,320 Oh God. But I did come across actually, 1169 01:06:01,480 --> 01:06:04,880 actually one other point I'll just quickly mention before as 1170 01:06:04,880 --> 01:06:08,480 far as what it means for PDI. This is again super analogous to 1171 01:06:08,480 --> 01:06:13,560 the All Company and Zaga example of, you know, a single asset 1172 01:06:14,360 --> 01:06:18,240 developer trying to, you know, spend a lot of CapEx for what 1173 01:06:18,240 --> 01:06:22,280 seems to be a great asset, but their market cap, you know, is, 1174 01:06:22,280 --> 01:06:24,960 is far less than that that CapEx bill. 1175 01:06:24,960 --> 01:06:28,840 So have having that asset in the hands of someone like a Perseus, 1176 01:06:30,360 --> 01:06:33,280 you know, who could fund that out of, you know, cash flows or 1177 01:06:33,280 --> 01:06:37,480 debt or something, you know, less dilutive than equity is 1178 01:06:37,480 --> 01:06:40,640 another positive point. But I'd like to close on a bit 1179 01:06:40,640 --> 01:06:42,960 of a fun fact. You beauty. 1180 01:06:43,520 --> 01:06:49,040 So this is an extract from a predictive announcement a couple 1181 01:06:49,040 --> 01:06:51,520 of months ago. Look who PDI appointed as their 1182 01:06:51,520 --> 01:06:56,520 CEOCOO. Does the name look familiar? 1183 01:06:58,160 --> 01:07:00,760 All Corp. Who owns All Corp now? 1184 01:07:03,840 --> 01:07:06,960 Say it was. Read into that what you may, but 1185 01:07:07,000 --> 01:07:09,440 I thought that was a little interesting too. 1186 01:07:10,000 --> 01:07:13,760 Good work JC. Good digging, right? 1187 01:07:13,920 --> 01:07:15,720 Good work time. Good night JD. 1188 01:07:15,720 --> 01:07:17,600 We've got a RIP snort coming out tomorrow. 1189 01:07:17,880 --> 01:07:23,920 JD has got hold of ex head of research and a previous director 1190 01:07:24,320 --> 01:07:27,920 at Goldman Sachs. Wow, to come on Yeah, and talk 1191 01:07:28,040 --> 01:07:31,320 in everything global energy. In the big. 1192 01:07:31,320 --> 01:07:34,840 Apples from stateside. That's it. 1193 01:07:34,840 --> 01:07:36,400 It's a freaking group. Stored up. 1194 01:07:36,480 --> 01:07:39,840 Nah, good stuff and thanks to Bloody Axis Modern Technology 1195 01:07:39,840 --> 01:07:42,640 for servicing the whole world with drill aisle survey 1196 01:07:42,640 --> 01:07:46,280 instrumentation. Also MMS verify spec power and 1197 01:07:46,280 --> 01:07:51,080 technology, DSI underground, Silverstone, CRE insurance, 1198 01:07:51,120 --> 01:07:55,600 Greenlands equipment, K drill. It should be called K Drubber. 1199 01:07:55,840 --> 01:07:58,000 K Drubber. K Drubber and. 1200 01:07:58,000 --> 01:07:59,640 Grab a spark chart while you're at it. 1201 01:07:59,680 --> 01:08:02,160 Uduru money miners. Uduru, Uduru guys. 1202 01:08:03,080 --> 01:08:05,520 The information contained in this episode of Money of Mine is 1203 01:08:05,520 --> 01:08:07,720 of general nature only and does not take into account the 1204 01:08:07,720 --> 01:08:11,320 objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular 1205 01:08:11,320 --> 01:08:13,360 person. Before making any investment 1206 01:08:13,360 --> 01:08:16,439 decision, you should consult with your financial advisor and 1207 01:08:16,439 --> 01:08:19,560 consider how appropriate the advice is to your objectives, 1208 01:08:19,760 --> 01:08:21,760 financial situation and needs.