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Righto money miners, the end of 
the year is fast approaching and

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we are just not letting you down
because you have Part 2 of the 

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greatest freaking YouTube video 
in the history of mining and 

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finance. 2nd last episode of the
year Maddie, but the content is 

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going up. 
It's this is like never been 

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point use of use have pioneered 
fundy predictions because it's 

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just never been done, never been
done before and no one will ever

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do it because it won't be as 
good as what you boys have 

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pulled off here. 
So just if you're thinking about

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it, just don't even. 
The reason it's a good episode, 

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Maddie, is because JD and I say 
nothing and we just we just 

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smarter than ask to all the 
talking. 

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Right. 
I hope. 

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And look, they're not really 
linked, but if don't forget to, 

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if you're just tuning in today, 
don't forget to listen to Part 

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1, which is before, which was 
released yesterday because 

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there's just that much 
knowledge. 

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We had to split it into two 
episodes. 

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Yeah. 
Two unique and awesome shows, 

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yeah. 
It's it's like Seinfeld you 

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don't have to listen to. 
You could listen to this first 

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if you want. 
Well, they're not linked. 

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There's not much history besides
knowing that Elaine and Jerry 

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slept together early on anyway. 
Other than that. 

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Serve yourself a mosh bite. 
Though while I'm on the topic, 

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let's get into Part 2 with the 
Fundy predictions for 2024. 

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That's rivet. 2025, yes. 
John Ford, thanks for joining us

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on Money of Mine. 
I'm excited to hear your highest

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conviction prediction for 2025. 
Yes, I've just got to do 

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something 1st. 
I'm going to put my Harry Potter

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prediction hat on and that would
make it. 

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Yeah, we got a few of them going
around. 

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Jonas, what are you Yeah, Look, 
OK, we're. 

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All down here. 
Anyway, look, I think one of the

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highest conviction predictions 
is that the TSXV Junior 

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Resources stocks will outperform
the ASX, the ASX stocks because 

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ASX has been trading at a 
premium to North American 

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valuations for some time. 
And the, the number of companies

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that have come through and told 
me, oh, we're looking at ISX 

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listing as in from North America
is the big numbers this year. 

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So I just think, you know, as 
soon as those listings happen, 

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things will turn and also 
starting to see a little bit 

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more, you know value just as we 
go into the end of the year in 

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some of our some of our North 
American holdings. 

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I like that one mate. 
It's yeah definitely. 

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Yeah, it's actually non 
consensus too. 

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So you it might also be a non 
consensus prediction what or if 

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you've got a different. 10 look 
up, you know, because you know, 

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it's hard to work out what 
consensus is, but I'm pretty 

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sure consensus is that, you 
know, gold prices will sort of 

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trend lower over the next, you 
know, every year for the next 5 

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years. 
That's what most brokers usually

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put into their decks. 
So I'm going to say, you know 

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gold price to strengthen further
next year just because I don't 

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think the you know the buyers of
gold primarily the central banks

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have have finished that their 
purchases and that they won't 

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for some time. 
Yeah, fascinating. 

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We'll see if that one washes 
through to the equities over the

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next year. 
How about the best performing 

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commodity for 2025? 
Yeah. 

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Look, I'm going to go with 
silver. 

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I've just done a bit of a trip 
overseas and you know, every 

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commodity that got discussed had
its pros and cons, but there 

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were no detractors for silver. 
And I think, you know, silver's 

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got that industrial and precious
metal pricing to it. 

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It's still really trading on an 
industrial basis at that sort of

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plus 80 to one to gold ratio. 
And I think that you know we 

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could see that start to shorten 
and and you know sometimes in 

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past it's got down to 35 to 1. 
So if that happens, you know 

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silver will do will do very well
and definitely outperform gold. 

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Awesome, mate. 
And the flip side of that was 

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the the grimmest outlook for a 
commodity you've got in 2025. 

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Yeah. 
Look, that is probably not, not 

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too popular, but I don't know if
copper's going to do that well 

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next year. 
I think it might do well, you 

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know, from, you know, 18 months 
out. 

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But but next year I think it 
could be, could be soft again. 

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We've had a fairly soft year for
copper this year. 

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And you know, I think there are 
some in a substitution 

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substitutions happening in, in 
the industrial world in, in 

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things like air conditioning and
you know, other, other, other 

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uses. 
So yeah, just, you know, maybe 

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copper won't have a has still in
a year, next year. 

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Might be waiting one more year 
for that copper narrative to to 

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play out by the sounds of it. 
Yeah. 

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Brilliant, John, thanks so much 
for, for, for joining us and 

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yeah, wish you the best for for 
Merry Christmas and Happy New 

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Year. 
Yeah, Absolute pleasure. 

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Thanks, guys. 
Have a great one. 

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Emmanuel dat dat capital. 
Thank you so much for 

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contributing this year to our 
crystal ball predictions. 

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This this segment's a bit, you 
know, irrelevant because you 

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already you already replied what
your answers were over a tweet. 

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Yeah, yeah. 
Sorry for spoiling the surprise.

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That's all right. 
We'll, we'll let you tell that 

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in audio format. 
But what's your highest 

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conviction prediction for for 
2025? 

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Yeah, sure. 
My highest conviction call is WA

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One Resources. 
One of my favourite stocks as 

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everyone probably knows and why 
I think this is going to perform

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well for 2025 is that we've seen
the company de risk the Project 

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Lean deposit significantly this 
year in 2024. 

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And we're really expecting to 
see some other key catalysts 

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such as you know, further met 
studies, a bit more resource 

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definition to a higher sort of 
level of confidence and then the

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maiden MRE and also quite 
likely, you know a feasibility 

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study. 
I would say it's probably 

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towards the latter part of next 
year at this point. 

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And notwithstanding or the other
sort of expected workflows that 

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you typically see with the 
resource development like 

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permitting, you know for the 
environmental studies et cetera,

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I think that the resource itself
is something that's really 

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scarce world class and assets 
like like this of this quality 

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and calibre and within the 
jurisdiction are very highly 

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sought after. 
So that's why, you know, it's 

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sort of one of the firm 
favourites in our view. 

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Awesome. 
Manny, I'll just quickly 

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disclose that a couple of us at 
Money mine hold shares in WA 

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1-2. 
Second question, what is your 

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most non consensus prediction 
for the coming year? 

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I like Alcoa and I like Alcoa 
because we've seen sort of a 

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number of quite material 
developments in the aluminium 

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space which Alcoa is a 
vertically integrated producer 

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and industry participant within.
And these changes most notably 

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at the recent Chinese value 
added tax or that refund changes

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to the VAT refund policies for 
Chinese exporters. 

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Yeah, just very briefly, Chinese
VAT is 13% and if that 30% isn't

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being refunded back to 
exporters, it effectively raises

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their cost of production by that
same amount. 

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So I think that really does bode
well for ex Chinese producers 

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such as Alcoa. 
And I think given the stocks 

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sort of valuation multiples and 
you know, it's, it's the 

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multinational sort of footprint 
and and participate in all three

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levels of the aluminium supply 
chain, I think it could do quite

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well And it's it's fairly 
unloved or has been unloved for 

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for some time now. 
Brilliant mate. 

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And which commodity over the 
YEAH 2025 do you have the best 

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outlook for? 
Sure. 

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I think that this is, you know, 
it's a bit of a ballsy call, I 

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guess, from my end. 
I'm given how it has performed 

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in 2024, but we think oil will 
do pretty well. 

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That's probably for a number of 
reasons, most notably, as we've 

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seen in recent weeks, the recent
unrest in the Middle East, 

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specifically in Syria for now, 
and I think it is no oil. 

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You know, it's, you know, 
essential demand is fairly 

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inelastic. 
So it's really, you know, the 

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supply side disruptions you've 
got to be conscious about. 

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And ultimately, if, yeah, if 
there's further unrest in the 

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Middle East, then that does 
provide strong potential for the

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oil price to to rise 
substantially. 

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We never know, right? 
That's what we're in for. 

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Absolutely. 
And on the flip side of that 

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one, what commodity is going to 
be the worst performing? 

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I would, I've picked lead for 
the worst performing commodity 

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and why I say that is, you know,
I've definitely sort of noticed 

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that well, you know, from the 
demand side, it's, it's actually

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really hard to move lead I would
say in any sort of major form. 

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I just think about projects like
Adriatic metals that that 

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produce will be producing 
significant amounts of lead as 

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they ramp up towards nameplate, 
even though they're fairly small

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producer, someone's going to buy
it. 

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And but once again, demand I 
would consider fairly inelastic 

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for lead. 
So to see sort of, you know, 

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incremental sources of supply 
coming in into the marketplace, 

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I'll probably say that, yeah, 
it, it doesn't look overly 

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fascinating. 
You know the supply demand 

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dynamic lead and that's why I 
picked this as a potentially the

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worst performing commodity. 
Lovely work, mate. 

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00:10:57,640 --> 00:11:00,320
Yeah, it's those those 
committees we get the byproduct 

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of other minds always just kind 
of have a sour outlook on them. 

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00:11:05,200 --> 00:11:06,200
Thanks for making the time, 
Manny. 

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00:11:06,200 --> 00:11:09,120
Yeah, no worries. 
Thanks guys. 

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Much appreciated Headley without
line selection. 

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00:11:12,880 --> 00:11:14,760
Mate, we've got to give you 
credit. 

175
00:11:15,280 --> 00:11:18,800
You know, I reflected on the the
answers to last year's 1 and I 

176
00:11:18,800 --> 00:11:21,240
think you were the closest to on
the money for your prediction. 

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00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:24,960
So well done mate, hopefully you
can repeat your your fortune 

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00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:29,160
telling capability this year. 
Thank you very much and thanks 

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for inviting me on. 
I don't know. 

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00:11:30,640 --> 00:11:32,840
There's no such thing as a 
bullseye in this business, but 

181
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most of the marks can sometimes 
do well, can't it? 

182
00:11:36,560 --> 00:11:39,040
Let's let's get us started for 
2025. 

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00:11:39,040 --> 00:11:41,040
What's the highest conviction 
pick for next year, Headley? 

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00:11:42,040 --> 00:11:45,120
Look, I think with the gold 
market that we've had this year 

185
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and some of the suggestions of 
M&A and even instances, I think 

186
00:11:50,680 --> 00:11:53,440
well my highest conviction pick 
for next year is that we start 

187
00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:57,600
to see M&A for gold developers, 
pre production gold companies, 

188
00:11:58,320 --> 00:12:00,880
drive the prices of those 
companies and see investors turn

189
00:12:00,880 --> 00:12:03,200
back towards it. 
I think there's a lot of reasons

190
00:12:03,200 --> 00:12:05,400
pointing to that supportive 
commodity, but also a really 

191
00:12:05,400 --> 00:12:08,400
supportive market that needs the
answers in companies that are 

192
00:12:08,520 --> 00:12:11,200
funded to develop them. 
West Perth will be cheering that

193
00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:13,680
one mate. 
What about the the non consensus

194
00:12:13,680 --> 00:12:18,400
pick for 2025? 
Well, look, you can't you can't 

195
00:12:18,400 --> 00:12:21,000
pick that Kamala Harris is going
to win the US election anymore 

196
00:12:21,000 --> 00:12:22,840
Kenya. 
So I better move on from that 

197
00:12:22,840 --> 00:12:26,120
one. 
Thought this one through a lot. 

198
00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:29,480
And I I think there's there's 
probably a sense that from a lot

199
00:12:29,480 --> 00:12:33,120
of people that 2025 will be a 
year where commodities go, OK, 

200
00:12:33,120 --> 00:12:36,040
they might not RIP, but they'll 
probably be all right. 

201
00:12:36,040 --> 00:12:39,120
And and that'll reflect well for
some of the bigger miners. 

202
00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:42,320
I, that's probably the thing 
about next year that I'm the 

203
00:12:42,320 --> 00:12:44,800
least comfortable with. 
I, I don't see a dismal year for

204
00:12:44,800 --> 00:12:46,880
commodities, but I don't see a 
strong year and I think we'll 

205
00:12:46,880 --> 00:12:50,400
probably see more wash out than 
wash in as far as commodity 

206
00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:51,880
prices go. 
So if it was going to be 

207
00:12:51,880 --> 00:12:54,960
sideways to a little bit down 
overall, that would probably 

208
00:12:54,960 --> 00:12:58,320
match my expectation. 
And I, I think that's probably 

209
00:12:58,320 --> 00:13:02,120
going to be worse if you're a 
ABHP or a Rio because your price

210
00:13:02,120 --> 00:13:05,600
has probably defied market 
trends and certainly fared a lot

211
00:13:05,600 --> 00:13:08,120
better than the explorers and 
non producers. 

212
00:13:08,520 --> 00:13:10,320
So I think there's probably a 
bit of money tied up there with 

213
00:13:10,320 --> 00:13:14,400
some optimism attached to it. 
So my non consensus call would 

214
00:13:14,400 --> 00:13:17,480
be that it's a, it's a weakish 
year for BHP and Rio. 

215
00:13:17,480 --> 00:13:20,160
Again, not not dismal or 
miserable, but weakish. 

216
00:13:20,920 --> 00:13:23,200
Awesome. 
And to to pin you down to 1 

217
00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:25,960
commodity for the coming year, 
what's going to stand out from 

218
00:13:25,960 --> 00:13:29,560
the pack? 
I can't take my eyes off gold 

219
00:13:29,560 --> 00:13:32,600
and I think if if I was to look 
around the island of people who 

220
00:13:32,600 --> 00:13:35,960
think that gold is going to go 
up in 2025, it's going to be 

221
00:13:35,960 --> 00:13:39,840
pretty crowded. 
But you know gold when it moves 

222
00:13:39,840 --> 00:13:43,880
into bull markets, it tends to 
be multi year multiples of 

223
00:13:43,880 --> 00:13:47,520
return and we're up a bit over 
two times in this bull market 

224
00:13:47,520 --> 00:13:49,960
for gold. 
So I think that basis probably 

225
00:13:49,960 --> 00:13:52,920
sits OK with me. 
The dynamic of more and more 

226
00:13:52,920 --> 00:13:56,320
central bank buying I think is a
a strong driver. 

227
00:13:56,320 --> 00:13:58,680
I don't see a reason for that to
go away in 2025. 

228
00:13:59,680 --> 00:14:03,280
But I'd add to it that when gold
starts to move, it's not like 

229
00:14:03,280 --> 00:14:05,920
other commodities. 
Gold doesn't butt up against a 

230
00:14:05,920 --> 00:14:09,600
roof price that's dictated by 
how much pain buyers are feeling

231
00:14:09,600 --> 00:14:12,760
or what a value in use is, like 
copper or iron or any of those 

232
00:14:12,760 --> 00:14:15,880
things. 
Gold tends to go up because 

233
00:14:15,880 --> 00:14:17,560
more, more and more people think
it's going to go up. 

234
00:14:17,560 --> 00:14:20,800
And, and that fundamental law on
its own can be good for a good 

235
00:14:20,800 --> 00:14:22,440
part of the bull market in gold 
as well. 

236
00:14:22,440 --> 00:14:26,480
So I I think there's a fair bit 
going for that medal in 2025 and

237
00:14:26,480 --> 00:14:29,200
possibly beyond. 
What about the worst performing 

238
00:14:29,200 --> 00:14:32,040
commodity heavily? 
If I'm going to make too many 

239
00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:35,920
friends saying this, but I mean,
I look across the suite of the 

240
00:14:35,920 --> 00:14:39,760
key mineral commodities and 
again, I don't think it's going 

241
00:14:39,760 --> 00:14:44,480
to be a dismal year, 2025, but I
just struggling to see super 

242
00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:47,200
optimistic drivers, particularly
of some of the larger market 

243
00:14:47,200 --> 00:14:50,160
ones. 
And in my sights I suppose. 

244
00:14:50,960 --> 00:14:56,120
Copper sits, it's not far below 
it's highs of 2024. 

245
00:14:56,120 --> 00:14:57,480
I think it peaked in May this 
year. 

246
00:14:57,480 --> 00:15:02,160
That was very close to it's all 
time high, about $5.10 a pound. 

247
00:15:02,160 --> 00:15:04,360
It's sitting at about 4:20 a 
pound at the moment. 

248
00:15:04,360 --> 00:15:07,640
So it's not really too far off 
the top end of its trading 

249
00:15:07,640 --> 00:15:09,640
range. 
Most other mineral commodities 

250
00:15:09,640 --> 00:15:14,160
peaked in 20/21/22 and they're 
down somewhere between 2530 

251
00:15:14,160 --> 00:15:16,800
forty, 50%. 
So copper still sits, you know, 

252
00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:19,200
reasonably strong compared to a 
lot of those other commodities. 

253
00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:22,760
I, I, I buy everything that 
people say about, you know, 

254
00:15:22,760 --> 00:15:24,400
energy transition and things 
like that. 

255
00:15:24,400 --> 00:15:27,160
It's a, it's a commodity for the
new economy, the old economy and

256
00:15:27,160 --> 00:15:28,800
every other single economy that 
exists. 

257
00:15:29,480 --> 00:15:32,120
But I really struggle to feel 
that copper could sort of burst 

258
00:15:32,120 --> 00:15:33,920
much higher. 
And in fact, I think there's 

259
00:15:33,920 --> 00:15:36,440
probably, that's a market where 
there's a lot of speculation 

260
00:15:36,440 --> 00:15:38,640
tied up. 
So if there was anything to wash

261
00:15:38,640 --> 00:15:41,600
out in a market that looks as if
the economy is not going to 

262
00:15:41,600 --> 00:15:44,880
support rampant growth, then 
copper would be my target for 

263
00:15:44,880 --> 00:15:46,040
that. 
So I think copper will have a 

264
00:15:46,040 --> 00:15:49,000
weaker year than most other 
mineral commodities. 

265
00:15:49,160 --> 00:15:51,440
That's not to say it's going to 
have, it's just more to say that

266
00:15:51,440 --> 00:15:54,320
it would be weaker. 
So under the under the trend 

267
00:15:54,320 --> 00:15:57,600
line rather than above it. 
Contrarian mate, I like it. 

268
00:15:58,280 --> 00:16:01,160
Thank you so much heavily. 
We yeah, really appreciate your 

269
00:16:01,160 --> 00:16:03,800
contributions and I look forward
to having you on the potty again

270
00:16:03,800 --> 00:16:05,960
next year. 
Thank you very much gents. 

271
00:16:05,960 --> 00:16:08,240
It's, it's been terrific 
chatting to you this year and 

272
00:16:08,240 --> 00:16:10,480
I'd love to join you again 
anytime you want, but please 

273
00:16:10,480 --> 00:16:13,400
have a happy Christmas and a 
safe and healthy New year and I 

274
00:16:13,400 --> 00:16:15,400
look forward to chatting to you 
again in 2025. 

275
00:16:15,400 --> 00:16:19,240
All the very best. 
How many mines do you think in 

276
00:16:19,240 --> 00:16:24,760
2025 are going to be like? 
Thank God we had CRE do that 

277
00:16:24,760 --> 00:16:27,320
insurance policy for us. 5:00 
It's at least five. 

278
00:16:27,320 --> 00:16:29,800
It's at least more than you can 
count on one mate. 

279
00:16:29,800 --> 00:16:32,960
Unexpected stuff happens all the
time in the industry and and as 

280
00:16:32,960 --> 00:16:35,480
a mining company, you're like, 
Jesus, I didn't. 

281
00:16:35,560 --> 00:16:38,120
I'm so glad that my insurance 
policy had me covered for this 

282
00:16:38,120 --> 00:16:40,600
thing that I did not expect. 
Well, it's only one every one 

283
00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:44,320
every two months for 2025. 
Yeah, yes, yes. 

284
00:16:44,320 --> 00:16:48,400
But mate, these floods are like 
one in 500 year floods that seem

285
00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:50,640
to happen every year. 
So like, yeah, these things 

286
00:16:50,640 --> 00:16:52,480
happen a lot. 
So what do you think the main 

287
00:16:52,480 --> 00:16:55,680
ticket items are going to be 
that people are going to thank 

288
00:16:55,680 --> 00:16:57,440
CRE for? 
Probably floods. 

289
00:16:57,600 --> 00:17:01,200
Floods, weather, civil unrest, 
Business interruption? 

290
00:17:01,680 --> 00:17:03,680
Yeah. 
Property damage, Fire. 

291
00:17:03,680 --> 00:17:07,200
Fire. 
If you say 5, you know, thankful

292
00:17:07,200 --> 00:17:12,359
sort of events, but I'm going to
say 365 nights of mining execs 

293
00:17:12,359 --> 00:17:15,200
just sleeping peacefully at 
night because they know they're 

294
00:17:15,200 --> 00:17:17,760
looked after. 
You cannot put a price on that. 

295
00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:19,839
You can. 
It's called a premium. 

296
00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:22,000
That's it. 
But you buy each month. 

297
00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:24,720
But yeah, oh, peace. 
It's worth it for a good. 

298
00:17:24,760 --> 00:17:28,680
Sleep, Peace of Mind and and 
that's but that's mining execs 

299
00:17:28,680 --> 00:17:33,040
across coal, that's across 
metalliferous, that's across 

300
00:17:33,040 --> 00:17:37,320
Australia, Africa, every country
in the world, lively precious 

301
00:17:37,320 --> 00:17:41,880
metals based metals, 
construction, renewables CRE do 

302
00:17:41,880 --> 00:17:44,000
the whole thing. 
Make sure you are getting looked

303
00:17:44,000 --> 00:17:46,160
after. 
Make sure you are sleeping. 

304
00:17:46,680 --> 00:17:49,880
Make sure you have spoken to 
Dave, Adam and Steve. 

305
00:17:50,280 --> 00:17:51,160
Yeah. 
Thanks guys. 

306
00:17:51,160 --> 00:17:54,800
In the show, notes Joe CRE. 
And thanks for the Christmas 

307
00:17:54,800 --> 00:17:56,560
hand for two. 
Thank you CRE. 

308
00:17:56,640 --> 00:17:58,360
Good. 
Yeah, good prenup brittle in 

309
00:17:58,360 --> 00:17:59,680
that. 
Thank you CRE. 

310
00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:04,000
Kingsley Jones, long time no 
talk, but welcome back to Money 

311
00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:06,160
and Mine. 
We're really excited to hear 

312
00:18:06,280 --> 00:18:10,240
what you think is your highest 
conviction prediction for 2025. 

313
00:18:11,480 --> 00:18:13,160
Yeah. 
Well, look, it's going to be a 

314
00:18:13,160 --> 00:18:17,240
big year, I'm sure, with the US 
election, Donald Trump coming 

315
00:18:17,240 --> 00:18:21,320
back, you know, there's a lot of
enthusiasm in the United States 

316
00:18:21,600 --> 00:18:25,560
for everything American and all 
the potential on offer. 

317
00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:30,200
We also have the huge kind of 
ongoing strategic competition 

318
00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:32,080
between China and the United 
States. 

319
00:18:32,480 --> 00:18:37,480
And so in the metal space, look,
I think most, most viewers would

320
00:18:37,480 --> 00:18:39,360
be thinking, well, you know, 
it's going to be some of these 

321
00:18:39,360 --> 00:18:43,120
exotic metals that make the big 
move, you know, maybe antimony 

322
00:18:43,120 --> 00:18:47,600
as we've already seen, or 
germanium or, you know, gallium 

323
00:18:47,600 --> 00:18:51,400
or, or something like that. 
I don't disagree with that. 

324
00:18:52,000 --> 00:18:55,400
But I'm calling for my big pick 
this year, one that hasn't been 

325
00:18:55,400 --> 00:18:59,000
on the radar. 
And the logic really is we're 

326
00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:02,680
very concerned in places in the 
West with the stuff that China 

327
00:19:02,680 --> 00:19:05,040
controls. 
But actually if you think about 

328
00:19:05,040 --> 00:19:07,680
it, China's concerned about the 
stuff the West controls. 

329
00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:11,840
And and so my pick is beryllium,
which is a metal that the US 

330
00:19:11,840 --> 00:19:16,520
controls production of. 
It's not well known in in mining

331
00:19:16,520 --> 00:19:19,800
circles because there's really 
only one major mine in the 

332
00:19:19,800 --> 00:19:23,280
United States in Utah. 
And that mine is owned and 

333
00:19:23,280 --> 00:19:27,640
operated controlled by AUS 
listed company called Material 

334
00:19:27,640 --> 00:19:31,720
MTRN. 
MTRN for those who are familiar 

335
00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:33,880
with it. 
It's got a diverse business, but

336
00:19:33,880 --> 00:19:35,600
beryllium is a big component of 
it. 

337
00:19:35,600 --> 00:19:37,680
It's been in a bull market since
2020. 

338
00:19:38,560 --> 00:19:41,440
Beryllium, the metal, if you 
check out the trusty US 

339
00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:45,520
Geological Survey, you know, 
mineral commodity summaries, not

340
00:19:45,520 --> 00:19:47,320
a big market. 
You know, it's measured in 

341
00:19:47,320 --> 00:19:50,800
hundreds of tonnes a year. 
I think the US, United States is

342
00:19:50,800 --> 00:19:55,280
about 190 tonnes. 
Pretty small beer in terms of 

343
00:19:56,080 --> 00:20:01,160
money on offer, but good prices.
So through the period up until 

344
00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:05,040
2022, you know, beryllium was 
kind of like in a steady state, 

345
00:20:05,040 --> 00:20:12,560
$660 a kilo, 600,000 to $700,000
a tonne, mostly produced in a 

346
00:20:12,600 --> 00:20:17,520
special alloy with copper. 
And its main use is rocketry and

347
00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:22,320
electronics, aerospace and 
defence, but it also has a big 

348
00:20:22,320 --> 00:20:25,520
role in nuclear weapons. 
It's used as the Tampa. 

349
00:20:26,120 --> 00:20:31,280
In thermonuclear devices. 
And so China is also a producer 

350
00:20:31,280 --> 00:20:34,160
of beryllium, but has growing 
demand associated with its 

351
00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:37,120
aerospace industry. 
We think the market's starting 

352
00:20:37,120 --> 00:20:40,960
to tighten up quite a bit. 
That price of $600.00 ran in 

353
00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:45,120
2023 to $1400 a kilo, $1.4 
million a tonne. 

354
00:20:45,120 --> 00:20:48,040
So we think material will make 
good money that's already making

355
00:20:48,040 --> 00:20:51,920
good money, but we think 
actually this is a metal off the

356
00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:56,920
radar with a very specific 
single mine investment thesis. 

357
00:20:57,560 --> 00:21:00,520
Fantastic and appreciate the 
background because my beryllium 

358
00:21:00,520 --> 00:21:02,040
knowledge is not what it could 
be. 

359
00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:05,320
You might have answered this one
as well, but have you got 

360
00:21:05,320 --> 00:21:07,960
another non consensus pick for 
the coming year? 

361
00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:11,520
Yeah. 
Look, the big one would be I 

362
00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:14,520
think precious metals will have 
an off year because they have 

363
00:21:14,520 --> 00:21:18,080
had such a good year this year 
and so many other metals have 

364
00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:22,000
have really been, you know, 
having taking it in the neck. 

365
00:21:22,000 --> 00:21:23,800
Just look at lithium, look also 
at iron ore. 

366
00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:27,160
So look, I think that the metals
in general will probably have a 

367
00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:30,800
recovery year this year. 
We think there'll be a continued

368
00:21:30,800 --> 00:21:34,640
enthusiasm pro growth risk on 
environment as we've already 

369
00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:37,920
seen with crypto, you know, 
obviously crypto, precious 

370
00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:41,280
metals complex, they tend to 
move a little bit together, 

371
00:21:41,680 --> 00:21:45,520
crypto more than gold and 
silver, but I think this will be

372
00:21:45,520 --> 00:21:48,240
possibly a down year for gold 
and silver. 

373
00:21:48,280 --> 00:21:51,360
So a bit of a retracement there.
Great mate. 

374
00:21:51,360 --> 00:21:54,320
What about the best performing 
commodity? 

375
00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:58,800
Yeah. 
Look, this is a the related to 

376
00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:00,560
the top thematic pick with 
beryllium. 

377
00:22:00,560 --> 00:22:03,840
But let's elaborate because 
there are many possible choices 

378
00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:06,600
here, particularly amongst the 
minor medals, the critical 

379
00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:10,480
minerals, the specialty medals, 
however we choose to call them. 

380
00:22:11,120 --> 00:22:14,360
So look, I think that, you know,
in the in the mainstream 

381
00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:18,400
discussion, there's a lot of 
talk about this US, China 

382
00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:22,320
competition. 
And mostly it centres on things 

383
00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:26,440
that the USA declares they're 
short of the critical minerals 

384
00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:29,600
like rare earths and vanadium 
and niobium and all kinds of 

385
00:22:29,600 --> 00:22:32,040
things like that, which are 
dominated by China. 

386
00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:35,600
I don't actually think they're 
going to be a big place for 

387
00:22:35,600 --> 00:22:39,120
price movements to the upside 
simply because they're dominated

388
00:22:39,120 --> 00:22:41,840
by China. 
And China actually has its 

389
00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:47,560
investment ducts lined up to 
expand production in friendly 

390
00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:52,800
countries to China, mainly in 
Africa and Latin America when it

391
00:22:52,800 --> 00:22:55,840
needs the mineral. 
So look, I don't think there's 

392
00:22:55,840 --> 00:22:58,920
going to be a strong environment
for those metals, 

393
00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:02,400
notwithstanding the enthusiasm 
for new discovery which is 

394
00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:05,680
there. 
So putting those aside, we have 

395
00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:09,000
to sort of flip the script and 
ask which are the medals that 

396
00:23:09,360 --> 00:23:11,720
USA actually dominates demand 
off. 

397
00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:15,280
So move away from this idea that
there's going to be a supply 

398
00:23:15,280 --> 00:23:18,880
constraint and look more at 
demand, but look at the shock to

399
00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:21,360
that demand. 
And I think that in the United 

400
00:23:21,360 --> 00:23:25,360
States where they clearly do 
have a strong, strong position 

401
00:23:25,360 --> 00:23:28,800
is in aerospace and defence. 
You know, if you looked at the 

402
00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:32,440
biggest exports that the United 
States has, China, it's things 

403
00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:34,480
like petrochemicals, 
semiconductor equipment, 

404
00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:38,640
semiconductors and jet planes, 
you know, mainly civilian of 

405
00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:41,920
course. 
So when you look at the USA and 

406
00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:46,080
you look at the say, the current
defence expenditures, the 

407
00:23:46,360 --> 00:23:50,560
prospect that we're using up a 
lot of war material in places 

408
00:23:50,560 --> 00:23:53,640
like Ukraine with the Ukraine 
Russia war and so on. 

409
00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:57,400
There's a lot of inventory 
drawdown in U.S. defence stocks.

410
00:23:57,400 --> 00:24:01,240
And that's going to translate to
new builds of mostly missiles, 

411
00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:04,560
but also things like aircraft 
and so on. 

412
00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:08,280
And not only in the United 
States, obviously in in Russia 

413
00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:11,000
and China as well, and also 
places like India. 

414
00:24:11,120 --> 00:24:14,440
So with that in mind, you know, 
my list is a target list of 

415
00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:17,280
aerospace metals, which are 
mainly hard metals, light metals

416
00:24:17,840 --> 00:24:22,040
or refractory metals and also 
nuclear, so including civilian 

417
00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:24,120
nuclear and military nuclear in 
this. 

418
00:24:24,360 --> 00:24:27,120
So if you look at closely at 
that, there's a short list of 

419
00:24:27,120 --> 00:24:29,920
metals and things like tungsten,
which is hard, titanium, which 

420
00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:33,280
is light, Other metals like 
zirconium and hafnium, which 

421
00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:36,200
mainly have applications in the 
nuclear industry, particularly 

422
00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:38,920
in high purity form. 
And then some other exotics like

423
00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:42,400
rhenium, which is a very, very 
rare metal that is mostly a 

424
00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:47,520
product of copper and molybdenum
smelting and it's used in 

425
00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:53,440
military aircraft in percentages
up to about 9% of turbine blade 

426
00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:57,400
can be metallic uranium. 
And then finally, you know the 

427
00:24:57,400 --> 00:24:59,640
one that I had in my big pick at
the beginning, which is 

428
00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:02,120
beryllium. 
And beryllium, it's not a big 

429
00:25:02,120 --> 00:25:07,480
market, but it's vital to the 
aerospace industry, particularly

430
00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:10,560
rockets. 
And you're going to see NASA 

431
00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:13,360
going back to the moon soon. 
China's going to the moon, 

432
00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:17,360
airline's launching rockets like
there's no tomorrow, and also 

433
00:25:17,360 --> 00:25:18,920
the missile industry is cheering
them up. 

434
00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:22,040
Single use is always best for 
growing demand, and there's 

435
00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:24,240
nothing like the military for a 
single use product. 

436
00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:28,720
So I think that beryllium is 
going to have a a good couple of

437
00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:31,600
years here and I think it's the 
Chinese that are going to 

438
00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:34,560
struggle to fuel their own 
demand and that's what's going 

439
00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:38,000
to tighten this market. the US 
withdrew material is pretty 

440
00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:40,200
focused on local demand in the 
United States. 

441
00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:42,840
But we think there's going to be
a surprise to the upside. 

442
00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:47,040
That process started in 2023. 
We think it's going to only 

443
00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:50,760
strengthen going forward as this
demand from the space industry 

444
00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:52,800
grows. 
So that's my top pick there, 

445
00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:56,920
right there, Beryllium to the 
upside and you can play that. 

446
00:25:56,960 --> 00:25:59,760
The best way to play that is not
to buy the metal, but to buy the

447
00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:02,280
stock material. 
Fantastic. 

448
00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:05,080
And last 1 Kingsley, what's 
going to be the worst performing

449
00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:09,200
commodity next year? 
Yeah, I, I'm, I'm horrified to 

450
00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:12,360
say this, but I think it's going
to be gold or silver and, and 

451
00:26:12,360 --> 00:26:16,720
not, not not in a terrible way. 
I'm actually a bull strictly on 

452
00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:19,320
on both gold and silver long 
term. 

453
00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:24,200
But I think because they had 
such a good year in 2024 when 

454
00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:25,800
other medals were having a bad 
year. 

455
00:26:26,120 --> 00:26:29,080
I just think that, you know, 
reverse and reverse of the dogs 

456
00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:32,120
of the Dow. 
Well, similar to the dogs of the

457
00:26:32,120 --> 00:26:35,560
Dow theory in stocks, you know 
that last year's perform worst 

458
00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:37,960
performer does does well this 
year. 

459
00:26:38,240 --> 00:26:40,200
I think there's so many bad 
performers. 

460
00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:43,680
In the middle. 
Space in 2024 that it's going to

461
00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:45,400
be hard for gold and silver to 
keep up. 

462
00:26:45,440 --> 00:26:49,760
And in fact, I think they're 
going to retrace a modest amount

463
00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:54,120
of this year's splendid gains. 
So for the bulls in the market, 

464
00:26:54,120 --> 00:26:55,480
it's not going to be a terrible 
year. 

465
00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:57,560
They might see a 1015% 
retracement. 

466
00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:02,280
And of those, I'd say silver 
being the high beta mill is is 

467
00:27:02,280 --> 00:27:06,720
going to move down, down more. 
So I don't think it's going to 

468
00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:11,200
be a terrible year. 
I think -15% would be the limit 

469
00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:13,240
of the downside in the silver 
mine. 

470
00:27:14,080 --> 00:27:15,960
Fantastic. 
Thanks for joining us and 

471
00:27:15,960 --> 00:27:18,160
sharing your predictions for 
2025, Kingsley. 

472
00:27:19,120 --> 00:27:20,640
Pleasure to be with you guys 
again. 

473
00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:24,160
All the best for the new year 
and have a great holiday season.

474
00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:28,240
Likewise, Warren Gilman, thank 
you so much for joining us for 

475
00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:30,720
the Crystal Bowl edition of 
Money of Mine. 

476
00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:33,960
I'm very curious to know what 
your yeah your most high 

477
00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:36,080
conviction prediction is for 
2025. 

478
00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:40,920
Well, you said it could be 
thematic stock, specific 

479
00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:43,080
commodity. 
Mine's probably all of those 

480
00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:46,640
things and unfortunately it's 
probably not going to be a 

481
00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:49,560
surprise and it's going to be 
consistent with last year, which

482
00:27:49,560 --> 00:27:57,360
is the whole, you know, energy 
security idea. 

483
00:27:57,400 --> 00:28:01,120
Uranium is the way to play it 
and next Gen is the stock to 

484
00:28:01,120 --> 00:28:04,520
play it. 
So thematic stock specific, 

485
00:28:04,520 --> 00:28:08,480
commodity specific, those are 
all the predictions largely the 

486
00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:13,040
same as last year, played out 
reasonably well. 

487
00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:16,680
We hit a new all time high for 
next Gen during the course of 

488
00:28:16,680 --> 00:28:19,200
the year, so that's good. 
Check that box. 

489
00:28:20,120 --> 00:28:24,800
Uranium spot prices are not 
behaving well, but term prices 

490
00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:31,280
have hit a new high barring, you
know, the the big peak in 2000 

491
00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:34,560
and seven, 2008. 
So term prices, that's a new 

492
00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:38,360
high tech and the thematic 
continues to play out obviously 

493
00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:43,480
with the the big players like 
Microsoft and Amazon and Meta 

494
00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:46,080
and all of those guys. 
Getting into the nuclear game. 

495
00:28:46,480 --> 00:28:51,960
So all of those boxes largely 
checked, but going to continue 

496
00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:55,880
that prediction for 2025 and you
know uranium in the next Gen is 

497
00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:58,720
the way to go it. 
Fantastic, Warren. 

498
00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:00,480
And how about your most non 
consensus pick? 

499
00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:05,560
Well, I guess it depends on your
gentleman's call with respect to

500
00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:08,240
what is consensus. 
I, I can give you a view on all 

501
00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:12,320
sorts of different things. 
You know, one of the things that

502
00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:16,560
I'm quite bearish on is 
notwithstanding I'm I'm bullish 

503
00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:20,120
on uranium and one might think 
that I'm therefore bullish on a 

504
00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:26,560
energy thematic and often times 
uranium trades hand in hand on a

505
00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:29,360
daily or even hourly basis with 
oil. 

506
00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:34,240
But I'm bearish on oil for a 
multitude of reasons. 

507
00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:36,640
I don't know if that's non 
consensus. 

508
00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:42,920
I think it is, but I'm bearish 
on oil and so I'm bearish on 

509
00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:48,080
carbon based energy. 
I'm also continue to be bearish 

510
00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:51,400
on lithium. 
I don't know if your friends in 

511
00:29:51,400 --> 00:29:53,640
your neighbourhood, your neck of
the woods, you're all big 

512
00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:56,920
lithium players and you're 
always calling the bottom and 

513
00:29:56,920 --> 00:30:00,520
saying hey, it's about to turn. 
Well, I don't think it's about 

514
00:30:00,520 --> 00:30:04,080
to turn. 
You know, we had Rio announced 

515
00:30:04,080 --> 00:30:09,240
today that they're spending 2 
1/2 billion on the expansion in 

516
00:30:09,240 --> 00:30:12,280
Argentina. 
And we get more and more, you 

517
00:30:12,280 --> 00:30:15,760
know, non Aussie players saying 
we're going to build, we're 

518
00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:18,240
going to expand. 
Just what the world? 

519
00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:21,920
Needs is another expansion or 
another new lithium. 

520
00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:24,760
I mean, it's the last thing in 
the world that the world needs. 

521
00:30:24,760 --> 00:30:29,080
So I can't see how we can have a
turn when some people are 

522
00:30:29,080 --> 00:30:32,080
shedding in supply while others 
are getting into the game and 

523
00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:34,480
adding to the supply, the 
oversupply. 

524
00:30:34,480 --> 00:30:38,320
So if those are non consensus 
then that's my vote. 

525
00:30:39,560 --> 00:30:43,120
Brilliant, right? 
And what about the the best 

526
00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:45,440
performing commodity for 2025? 
I'm going to guess. 

527
00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:47,040
Go out on a limb here and guess 
it's uranium. 

528
00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:51,360
Yeah, it's uranium and you know,
the spot price hasn't been 

529
00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:55,400
performing and I think there's a
little bit of management going 

530
00:30:55,400 --> 00:30:58,880
on by certain players in the 
market with respect to the spot 

531
00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:01,560
price. 
I think that'll clear by year 

532
00:31:01,560 --> 00:31:05,840
end. 
And you know, Bammel has a 

533
00:31:05,840 --> 00:31:09,640
forecast I think for next year, 
average price of $120.00 a 

534
00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:13,000
pound. 
You know, Bank of America, you 

535
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:16,440
know, that's more than 50% 
increase from where we are 

536
00:31:16,440 --> 00:31:19,760
today. 
So I'm with Bammel and I think 

537
00:31:19,760 --> 00:31:22,640
it's going to be a a great year 
for for uranium. 

538
00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:26,880
And have you got another worst 
performing commodity if we set 

539
00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:30,200
aside the the oil and lithium 
sectors? 

540
00:31:30,920 --> 00:31:35,840
Yeah, well, you know, it's 
probably not non consensus, but.

541
00:31:37,000 --> 00:31:40,480
The same story on nickel. 
You know, I was a bear on nickel

542
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:43,560
this year. 
I think I voted for that last 

543
00:31:43,560 --> 00:31:45,640
year as my worst performing 
commodity. 

544
00:31:45,880 --> 00:31:48,040
I don't see any reason to change
that. 

545
00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:53,680
I mean, you've got the US 
bringing funding. 

546
00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:59,640
To new mines and expansions in 
Brazil to have security of 

547
00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:04,040
supply again, just what the 
world needs a new nickel mine in

548
00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:08,520
Brazil when we've got. 
Vast oversupply coming out of 

549
00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:13,160
Indonesia and the Philippines, 
so unfortunately I don't see a 

550
00:32:13,160 --> 00:32:16,760
turn in that one either. 
Not too many friends in the in 

551
00:32:16,760 --> 00:32:18,560
the nickel space. 
Warren, thanks for coming on the

552
00:32:18,560 --> 00:32:20,320
show and hope you have a great 
Christmas and New Year. 

553
00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:25,000
Same to you gentlemen. 
Have a great 1 and I look 

554
00:32:25,000 --> 00:32:28,080
forward to watching the episode 
and hearing everyone else's 

555
00:32:28,080 --> 00:32:28,920
views. 
Very. 

556
00:32:28,960 --> 00:32:34,280
Amazing. 2025 Prediction for the
most successful geophysical 

557
00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:36,920
survey conduct a Bodger dash 
sat. 

558
00:32:37,280 --> 00:32:39,120
That's that's a certainty I've 
got. 

559
00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:42,520
I can one up that on the 
prediction front, I reckon the 

560
00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:47,360
biggest discovery of 2025 will 
be will be a result of. 

561
00:32:47,560 --> 00:32:50,360
Dash sat. 
Dash sat Nathan Dash's like 

562
00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:55,520
industry leading geophysics 
capability will be responsible 

563
00:32:55,520 --> 00:32:58,440
for the next big discovery. 
I reckon it's going to be pretty

564
00:32:58,440 --> 00:33:01,720
imminent with the 8 gravity 
crews currently working in WA. 

565
00:33:01,720 --> 00:33:06,240
I reckon one of those crews are 
going to find it. 8 88 with a 

566
00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:07,440
basic account. 
Mogi. 

567
00:33:07,440 --> 00:33:11,040
Which is the hub. 
So wait, I reckon we're going to

568
00:33:11,040 --> 00:33:13,160
be putting A1 in front of that 
eight. 

569
00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:17,640
I think there's going to be 18 
gravity crews and mate, there's 

570
00:33:17,640 --> 00:33:20,640
going to be drones. 
There's going to be on the 

571
00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:25,920
ground, above ground geophysics 
down flat stick in 2025 by Daish

572
00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:30,280
sat in WA. 
So I would be getting calling 

573
00:33:30,280 --> 00:33:33,440
them now. 
So that is the Oricon they're 

574
00:33:33,440 --> 00:33:36,360
going to absolutely take off in 
WA for GI Fizz. 

575
00:33:36,520 --> 00:33:38,720
Maddie, I heard tell me, tell me
if I'm speaking at a school 

576
00:33:38,720 --> 00:33:43,000
here, there's a 10X increase in 
the number of targets that you 

577
00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:45,960
will have on your tenements if 
you use these guys for your GF 

578
00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:49,960
is work. 
Yeah, yeah, that is, that is 

579
00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:53,840
100% correct, like. 10 times. 
I thought it heard that one 

580
00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:54,760
right. 
Yeah, I've heard it. 

581
00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:57,160
I've heard it 10 times. 
That is 10X like. 

582
00:33:57,160 --> 00:34:00,640
That I'm excited to go into 2025
knowing people will be using 

583
00:34:00,640 --> 00:34:04,160
data set and there's that much 
exciting exploration going on 

584
00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:07,440
out there in the industry. 
Yeah, and I I just think 

585
00:34:07,440 --> 00:34:10,679
especially with the emerging 
copper theme deep hidden 

586
00:34:10,679 --> 00:34:15,360
undercover, don't drill for it. 
Don't just start poking holes 

587
00:34:15,360 --> 00:34:16,400
in. 
Don't waste your shower does. 

588
00:34:16,480 --> 00:34:20,800
Get Daish Sat to find the 
anomaly and give you the target 

589
00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:25,480
1st go Nathan Daish. 
Merry Christmas to Daish Sat and

590
00:34:25,480 --> 00:34:29,159
I look forward to seeing them 
fucking everywhere in WA next 

591
00:34:29,159 --> 00:34:30,040
year. 
Beautiful. 

592
00:34:31,199 --> 00:34:33,199
Warren Erwin, thank you for 
joining us. 

593
00:34:33,199 --> 00:34:37,760
I'm excited to hear your highest
conviction prediction for 2025. 

594
00:34:39,159 --> 00:34:44,239
My highest conviction prediction
would be colonial coal as text 

595
00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:48,280
coal assets get sold, met coal 
assets and then you know Peace 

596
00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:50,719
River coal gets sold by Anglo 
and the Australian assets get 

597
00:34:50,719 --> 00:34:53,280
sold by Anglo. 
Anglo and Kestrel being put up 

598
00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:56,280
for sale and having many many 
multiples of bidders. 

599
00:34:56,280 --> 00:34:58,840
I think eventually, once the 
producing assets are out of the 

600
00:34:58,840 --> 00:35:02,120
way, there's going to be quite a
bit of demand for the 

601
00:35:02,240 --> 00:35:05,480
extraordinary assets Colonial 
Coal has in a tremendous 

602
00:35:05,480 --> 00:35:08,800
jurisdiction with infrastructure
and massive amounts of met, high

603
00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:11,240
quality met coal. 
I think they'll be they'll be in

604
00:35:11,240 --> 00:35:13,080
demand by all the people who 
missed out on the bidding. 

605
00:35:15,400 --> 00:35:18,480
Yeah, I like it. 
I I'm now curious what your most

606
00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:19,840
non consensus prediction is. 
Why? 

607
00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:22,880
Yeah. 
Well, one other thing before we 

608
00:35:22,880 --> 00:35:27,200
get to the non consensus, one 
other thing too, given you're 

609
00:35:27,240 --> 00:35:31,080
you're in Australia, What I'd 
keep an eye out for is what's 

610
00:35:31,080 --> 00:35:34,760
going to be happening for any 
former Rio Tinto guys. 

611
00:35:34,760 --> 00:35:42,400
Take a look at the Walker Dawson
will be drilled this this May by

612
00:35:42,400 --> 00:35:44,120
a Canadian company called GPM 
metals. 

613
00:35:44,120 --> 00:35:47,720
That'll be something to watch 
for many people at formerly at 

614
00:35:47,720 --> 00:35:50,760
Rio or even at Rio now they may 
have heard of the Walker Dawson.

615
00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:55,920
It had legendary, legendary 
proportions within Rio Tinto for

616
00:35:55,920 --> 00:35:57,280
quite some time. 
So it'll be drilled. 

617
00:35:57,720 --> 00:36:04,320
Non consensus would be I'm not a
fan of battery metals, batteries

618
00:36:04,320 --> 00:36:06,840
right now or not of the 
performance you need to be. 

619
00:36:06,920 --> 00:36:08,320
So we don't know what the 
chemistry is. 

620
00:36:08,320 --> 00:36:12,240
So to spend three years finding 
some battery metals, another 

621
00:36:12,240 --> 00:36:15,040
three years permitting, three 
years building and then you 

622
00:36:15,040 --> 00:36:18,640
know, massive cycle times when 
we really don't know what'll be 

623
00:36:18,640 --> 00:36:21,040
in the batteries. 
It'll actually bring the 

624
00:36:21,040 --> 00:36:24,040
mainstream on. 
You know, nobody's nobody's 

625
00:36:24,040 --> 00:36:27,120
buying battery, nobody's buying 
electric vehicles here. 

626
00:36:27,160 --> 00:36:29,640
The sales of stall they're 
sitting on, sitting on people's 

627
00:36:29,640 --> 00:36:30,920
lots. 
I'm not sure if it's the case in

628
00:36:30,920 --> 00:36:33,360
Australia, but that's pretty 
much died off. 

629
00:36:33,600 --> 00:36:38,800
So that's very non consensus. 
Not touching battery metals, 

630
00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:41,400
yeah. 
Very interesting to hear hear 

631
00:36:41,400 --> 00:36:43,040
that one and hear the Canadian 
perspective. 

632
00:36:43,040 --> 00:36:45,680
Warren, how about the best 
performing commodity for next 

633
00:36:45,680 --> 00:36:49,000
year? 
Well, the thing the best and the

634
00:36:49,000 --> 00:36:51,200
worst performing, I take it. 
You know, it's tough to do a 

635
00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:54,240
year prediction on commodities, 
but let's put it this way. 

636
00:36:54,240 --> 00:36:57,640
The reason I'm positive on METCO
would be my choice. 

637
00:36:57,640 --> 00:37:01,560
The reason I'm positive on it is
certainly from what I've seen, 

638
00:37:01,560 --> 00:37:05,320
we've got lots and lots of 
companies looking for uranium, 

639
00:37:05,840 --> 00:37:09,160
yet we have 0 companies in the 
world looking for METCO. 

640
00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:11,640
Nobody's looking for it. 
It's out of favour. 

641
00:37:11,640 --> 00:37:15,160
Everybody hates it, yet India 
needs a monstrous amount of it 

642
00:37:15,160 --> 00:37:17,600
over the next decade or 
subsequent decades to build 

643
00:37:17,600 --> 00:37:20,000
their steel inventory up within 
their economy. 

644
00:37:20,440 --> 00:37:23,160
So I'm a big fan of met coal. 
Obviously, there's a lot of 

645
00:37:23,160 --> 00:37:25,080
buyers of recent met coal 
assets. 

646
00:37:25,080 --> 00:37:28,680
They share my view. 
So I'm a big fan of met coal. 

647
00:37:28,720 --> 00:37:30,720
I think there'll be a lot of 
money made in the sector over 

648
00:37:30,720 --> 00:37:34,280
the next while. 
And the flip side of that one, 

649
00:37:34,280 --> 00:37:35,840
we're in the West performing for
25 of. 

650
00:37:36,680 --> 00:37:38,240
Course it's going to be uranium,
right? 

651
00:37:38,240 --> 00:37:40,360
Everybody's super pumped on 
uranium. 

652
00:37:41,880 --> 00:37:45,200
I'm a huge fan of nuclear power,
but you know, we've just had a 

653
00:37:45,200 --> 00:37:47,960
four fold increase in the price 
of uranium off the 17 level 

654
00:37:47,960 --> 00:37:53,760
where I was piling in very odd 
situation where you have you 

655
00:37:54,960 --> 00:37:58,000
know, people have been calling 
for 150 two $100 uranium for a 

656
00:37:58,000 --> 00:38:03,440
long time hasn't happened yet. 
You know, the, the supply demand

657
00:38:03,440 --> 00:38:07,040
deficit seems to be met every 
year, despite the fact that spud

658
00:38:07,240 --> 00:38:11,560
yellow cake and H1 speculators 
out of the US and globally have 

659
00:38:11,560 --> 00:38:14,840
been hoovering up uranium out of
the market to the tune of at 

660
00:38:14,880 --> 00:38:18,960
least 100,000,000 lbs, which is,
you know, more than half a 

661
00:38:18,960 --> 00:38:21,560
year's consumption of, of 
uranium. 

662
00:38:21,560 --> 00:38:25,000
So if that ever happened in the 
the other thing too is at a 

663
00:38:25,000 --> 00:38:28,880
price of 75 bucks, pretty much 
every uranium property I've seen

664
00:38:28,880 --> 00:38:32,640
in the entire world is economic.
So you put that in copper terms.

665
00:38:32,640 --> 00:38:34,560
Can you imagine somebody 
stepping into the copper market,

666
00:38:34,560 --> 00:38:37,160
buying half the year's 
consumption out of the market, 

667
00:38:38,240 --> 00:38:40,920
having the price of copper at a 
level where every project that 

668
00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:44,920
you're aware of is economic and 
it's already gone up four times 

669
00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:49,080
and you have rabid interest in 
it and everybody's screaming 

670
00:38:49,080 --> 00:38:52,040
it's going to 150 or 200. 
And then on the on the demand 

671
00:38:52,040 --> 00:38:54,640
side, you can't build reactors 
fast enough. 

672
00:38:54,640 --> 00:38:57,840
There's a base of 440. 
Chinese are building like 50 

673
00:38:57,920 --> 00:39:01,320
plus by the time they come on, 
it's not it's low single digit 

674
00:39:01,320 --> 00:39:04,400
growth and demand. 
So I mean that doesn't include, 

675
00:39:04,560 --> 00:39:06,600
you know, our reactor base is 
old. 

676
00:39:07,360 --> 00:39:09,760
Most a lot of them were built, 
you know, in the 70s, eighties. 

677
00:39:09,760 --> 00:39:11,800
So they're getting old and some 
of them will have to be 

678
00:39:11,800 --> 00:39:13,560
decommissioned and cannot be 
extended. 

679
00:39:13,560 --> 00:39:18,320
So how's that for a negative 
view on a commodity that 

680
00:39:18,320 --> 00:39:20,600
everybody loves and thinks I'm 
an idiot for not thinking it's 

681
00:39:20,600 --> 00:39:23,040
going to 200 bucks? 
I get a few people talk and 

682
00:39:23,080 --> 00:39:24,720
thanks again for your time 
Warren, appreciate it. 

683
00:39:25,480 --> 00:39:26,640
Thanks, gentlemen. 
Have a great day. 

684
00:39:26,640 --> 00:39:29,080
Thank you. 
Dan Porter from Pure Asset 

685
00:39:29,080 --> 00:39:30,480
Management, thanks for joining 
us. 

686
00:39:30,520 --> 00:39:34,240
I am keen to hear your highest 
prediction pick for 2025 mate. 

687
00:39:35,120 --> 00:39:39,400
Yeah, thanks guys. 
Look, I, we're all sort of 

688
00:39:39,400 --> 00:39:41,760
sitting here on the East Coast, 
particularly of Australia, 

689
00:39:41,760 --> 00:39:43,720
wondering where the hell we're 
going to get some gas from for 

690
00:39:43,720 --> 00:39:47,400
next year. 
And for me, I think gas prices 

691
00:39:47,400 --> 00:39:51,400
are going to get a RIP and 
that's not on the basis of oil 

692
00:39:51,400 --> 00:39:55,000
prices going higher. 
I actually think all will be an 

693
00:39:55,000 --> 00:39:57,240
underperformer. 
But we've got a serious problem 

694
00:39:57,240 --> 00:40:00,640
in the East Coast of Australia. 
And I think IMO just released a 

695
00:40:00,640 --> 00:40:02,680
report a couple of days ago. 
Suggesting the same. 

696
00:40:02,720 --> 00:40:06,640
Thing when I talk to suppliers 
out there, all potential want to

697
00:40:06,640 --> 00:40:10,040
be supplies, certainly gas 
prices, the Ford curve is 

698
00:40:10,040 --> 00:40:12,880
turning up higher than $20 over 
the next six months. 

699
00:40:12,880 --> 00:40:16,320
So for us at Pure, we do have a 
couple of investments in that 

700
00:40:16,320 --> 00:40:18,880
gas space. 
But for me, I think East Coast 

701
00:40:18,880 --> 00:40:22,600
gas prices are going to be the 
place to be over the next 12 

702
00:40:22,600 --> 00:40:25,720
months. 
Nice mate, what about your most 

703
00:40:25,720 --> 00:40:32,400
non consensus prediction for 25?
Look, I actually think iron 

704
00:40:32,400 --> 00:40:33,560
ore's going to have a decent 
run. 

705
00:40:34,360 --> 00:40:38,120
I know everyone last year was 
talking about iron ore coming 

706
00:40:38,120 --> 00:40:42,280
off sharply. 
It has come off a bit over the 

707
00:40:42,280 --> 00:40:44,360
course of the year, although 
it's bounced back a little bit 

708
00:40:44,360 --> 00:40:47,000
now. 
But I think with a bit looser 

709
00:40:47,000 --> 00:40:50,560
monetary policy, you're going to
get some threats of tariffs 

710
00:40:51,120 --> 00:40:53,880
obviously coming out of the US 
and that's going to have a a 

711
00:40:54,520 --> 00:40:57,040
negative impact on growth rates 
around the world. 

712
00:40:57,520 --> 00:41:00,000
I think people are going to be 
forced to do some stimulus at 

713
00:41:00,000 --> 00:41:03,040
the end of the day. 
And I think the bulks are going 

714
00:41:03,040 --> 00:41:04,680
to be one of the beneficiaries 
of that. 

715
00:41:05,120 --> 00:41:08,400
And I think I know it's probably
going to be the the way to play 

716
00:41:08,400 --> 00:41:11,160
that given that you might have 
to say the Chinese actually have

717
00:41:11,160 --> 00:41:14,240
to pull the trigger and do some 
proper stimulus now and 

718
00:41:14,240 --> 00:41:15,960
sentiment towards it has been 
pretty negative. 

719
00:41:15,960 --> 00:41:17,880
So I think you could get a sharp
online than that one. 

720
00:41:17,880 --> 00:41:22,400
So that'd be my most non 
consensus people though have to 

721
00:41:22,400 --> 00:41:27,800
caveat and probably not not 
super aware of where everyone 

722
00:41:27,800 --> 00:41:30,000
else is going with iron ore 
forecast at the moment. 

723
00:41:30,080 --> 00:41:33,800
But for me, I think that's going
to be my my best anti consensus 

724
00:41:33,800 --> 00:41:35,240
1. 
I like it. 

725
00:41:35,880 --> 00:41:39,040
Casting aside maybe East Coast 
gas for the minute, and iron ore

726
00:41:39,040 --> 00:41:41,200
for that matter, what's going to
be the best performing 

727
00:41:41,200 --> 00:41:45,000
commodity? 
Look, I actually think 

728
00:41:45,000 --> 00:41:46,520
tungsten's going to have a good 
run here. 

729
00:41:48,720 --> 00:41:51,320
Let's see Trev laughing then. 
I thought this might be coming. 

730
00:41:54,080 --> 00:42:00,640
We're obviously heavily invested
there, but it's look, I tungsten

731
00:42:00,640 --> 00:42:03,080
has been a surprisingly good 
performer in the last two years 

732
00:42:03,080 --> 00:42:05,840
and you've got a massive supply 
and demand in balance between 

733
00:42:05,840 --> 00:42:08,560
West Coast western markets. 
Sorry. 

734
00:42:09,240 --> 00:42:11,160
And and what's produced out of 
China. 

735
00:42:11,200 --> 00:42:15,080
So you've got 85% of product 
coming out of China and 

736
00:42:15,160 --> 00:42:17,240
governments around the world are
scrambling to get tungsten's 

737
00:42:17,240 --> 00:42:19,760
supply. 
I think there's going to be a 

738
00:42:19,760 --> 00:42:22,800
pretty big boost in defence 
spending, particularly at the US

739
00:42:22,800 --> 00:42:25,880
and the US doesn't have a 
reliable source of tungsten. 

740
00:42:26,360 --> 00:42:28,600
There's definitely a lot of 
interest in Australian supply of

741
00:42:28,600 --> 00:42:30,560
tungsten. 
It's a good supplier, it's a 

742
00:42:30,560 --> 00:42:33,920
stable partner for the most part
being on which government's in 

743
00:42:33,920 --> 00:42:37,760
control, but for the most part 
we're pretty stable on on laws 

744
00:42:37,760 --> 00:42:41,160
and jurisdictions here. 
So I think Tyson's actually 

745
00:42:41,160 --> 00:42:43,480
going to have a good run in the 
next four months and it flies 

746
00:42:43,480 --> 00:42:45,480
under the radar quite a bit. 
But we've seen a fair bit of 

747
00:42:45,480 --> 00:42:48,240
activity in the space in the 
last six months. 

748
00:42:48,800 --> 00:42:51,200
Certainly there's a few domestic
producers there. 

749
00:42:51,640 --> 00:42:54,120
Some have been better performers
than than others, but I think 

750
00:42:54,120 --> 00:42:55,320
there's some. 
Good by mention. 

751
00:42:55,320 --> 00:42:58,520
Behind that price now it's at a 
very tight point in the market 

752
00:42:58,520 --> 00:43:00,800
as well. 
And we can see that by the lack 

753
00:43:00,800 --> 00:43:03,880
of pricing movement over the 
last two years. 

754
00:43:04,560 --> 00:43:07,720
It is very, very tight. 
So Tyson and I think it was 

755
00:43:07,720 --> 00:43:11,840
probably one that's going to be 
a small, small exposure for most

756
00:43:11,840 --> 00:43:13,360
players, but I think it's going 
to have a good run. 

757
00:43:14,320 --> 00:43:16,640
Nice, Stan. 
And flip side of that, what's 

758
00:43:16,640 --> 00:43:21,720
the worst performing commodity? 
Look, that's a, that's a tough 

759
00:43:21,720 --> 00:43:23,600
one over the next over the next 
year. 

760
00:43:23,600 --> 00:43:25,480
I actually think oil's got some 
downside here. 

761
00:43:26,640 --> 00:43:30,000
You know, it's economy obviously
between East Coast gas markets 

762
00:43:30,000 --> 00:43:32,920
and oil. 
Usually they do run gas prices 

763
00:43:32,920 --> 00:43:35,600
and oil run in conjunction, but 
there's differences for that 

764
00:43:35,600 --> 00:43:37,240
this year which are pretty 
specific. 

765
00:43:37,600 --> 00:43:40,560
But I think with global economic
growth coming off the boil, I 

766
00:43:40,560 --> 00:43:42,920
think oil is probably the one 
that gets towards the most. 

767
00:43:44,520 --> 00:43:46,960
There's probably some downside. 
As we know in resources markets,

768
00:43:46,960 --> 00:43:51,880
yesterday's loop uses loses are 
usually tomorrow's winners, but 

769
00:43:51,880 --> 00:43:54,600
I think oil is probably most 
susceptible to some more 

770
00:43:54,600 --> 00:43:57,280
downside from here. 
Great. 

771
00:43:57,320 --> 00:44:00,240
Thanks for sharing your your 
picks, Dan, and looking forward 

772
00:44:00,240 --> 00:44:02,600
to seeing how they fare over 
2025. 

773
00:44:03,240 --> 00:44:05,200
Yeah, thanks guys. 
Look forward to catching up next

774
00:44:05,200 --> 00:44:06,240
year. 
Beautiful. 

775
00:44:06,240 --> 00:44:07,680
Have a nice Christmas. 
Yeah, cheers. 

776
00:44:08,120 --> 00:44:11,840
Bentley Adebury, thank you so 
much for for for dialling in all

777
00:44:11,840 --> 00:44:14,840
hours of the the, the morning 
night anytime for you. 

778
00:44:14,840 --> 00:44:17,240
But we're we're glad we've got 
you and we're very keen to know 

779
00:44:17,240 --> 00:44:20,320
what your highest conviction 
prediction for 2025 is. 

780
00:44:22,040 --> 00:44:25,840
Well, highest, highest 
conviction prediction for 25 is 

781
00:44:25,840 --> 00:44:28,080
that everything I say in the 
next something that I say in the

782
00:44:28,080 --> 00:44:29,280
next 5 minutes is going to be 
wrong. 

783
00:44:29,280 --> 00:44:30,760
So that's. 
That's always good. 

784
00:44:32,920 --> 00:44:37,040
Always a given, right. 
I mean, look outside of that, I 

785
00:44:37,040 --> 00:44:40,040
think there's actually a lot of 
uncertainty out there, 

786
00:44:40,040 --> 00:44:42,080
especially that we see had 
conversations about this past 

787
00:44:42,080 --> 00:44:45,880
couple weeks. 
But so I'll say conviction wise,

788
00:44:45,880 --> 00:44:54,680
not that high, but I, I think 
there's if you want to look from

789
00:44:54,680 --> 00:44:57,880
someone to, you know, I guess 
deal in the financial markets, a

790
00:44:57,880 --> 00:45:02,080
good, a good conviction play is 
to, you know, be be long 

791
00:45:02,080 --> 00:45:07,720
volatility in, in some of the, I
guess metal like PGM space right

792
00:45:07,720 --> 00:45:08,640
now. 
I think it's a good thing to be 

793
00:45:08,640 --> 00:45:12,400
long volatility in especially 
Palladium, which based, you 

794
00:45:12,400 --> 00:45:14,640
know, it kind of means right, 
you're down the lower nines then

795
00:45:16,000 --> 00:45:19,800
play some upside to it. 
Don't, don't, don't hold your 

796
00:45:19,800 --> 00:45:21,400
breath for, you know, a 
Palladium going back to like 

797
00:45:21,400 --> 00:45:24,120
1200 maybe. 
But yeah, I think there's a 

798
00:45:24,120 --> 00:45:26,280
good, there's good movements in 
there and that's that'll be my 

799
00:45:26,280 --> 00:45:29,440
highest conviction is just 
volatility in in PGMS. 

800
00:45:30,160 --> 00:45:31,840
How about your most non 
consensus pick? 

801
00:45:33,800 --> 00:45:36,560
So I had to I had to message 
Trav about this one before it'd 

802
00:45:36,560 --> 00:45:37,960
be like, what? 
What are the consensus going 

803
00:45:37,960 --> 00:45:44,240
into next year? 
And his answer was funny, but I 

804
00:45:44,240 --> 00:45:48,880
would say non consensus though 
just from a similar to answer 

805
00:45:48,880 --> 00:45:51,280
the one I just gave for #1 
actually I would say short gold,

806
00:45:51,960 --> 00:45:53,880
not necessarily because I'm 
bearish gold in the long run, 

807
00:45:53,880 --> 00:45:57,120
but just because when the market
gets so weighted in One 

808
00:45:57,120 --> 00:46:02,880
Direction, you have you have the
recipe for something sharp in 

809
00:46:02,880 --> 00:46:07,960
the opposite direction. 
And if there is any, let's say 

810
00:46:08,240 --> 00:46:11,600
market sell off in the financial
space just like financial paper 

811
00:46:11,600 --> 00:46:15,800
markets, then I think gold would
be right for a steep pull back 

812
00:46:15,800 --> 00:46:18,680
was something we saw somewhere 
in 2020, right, COVID happened 

813
00:46:18,680 --> 00:46:20,960
and it was one of the sold off 
pretty hard. 

814
00:46:21,000 --> 00:46:23,320
So similar concept to that. 
I'll just go with that for now. 

815
00:46:24,080 --> 00:46:26,760
I like it, Bentley. 
And how about the best 

816
00:46:26,760 --> 00:46:33,720
performing commodity for 25? 
So I met with some of the tin 

817
00:46:33,720 --> 00:46:39,440
barons last week and jokes 
aside, actually do the look. 

818
00:46:39,440 --> 00:46:42,360
The tin con market's very, very 
tight. 

819
00:46:42,480 --> 00:46:46,800
Let's say we've seen some 
smelters out in China starting 

820
00:46:46,800 --> 00:46:51,360
to basically use their tailings 
piles, which would be very low 

821
00:46:51,920 --> 00:46:55,680
percentage, 10 to, you know, 
feedback into their smelters. 

822
00:46:55,680 --> 00:46:57,720
And then, you know, we have a 
lot of demand for it as well. 

823
00:46:57,720 --> 00:46:59,600
And it's just not a market 
that's going to correct very 

824
00:46:59,600 --> 00:47:01,840
quickly. 
And even though prices dip back 

825
00:47:01,840 --> 00:47:07,760
below 30,000 and 10 metal on the
LME, we think that makes it, you

826
00:47:08,200 --> 00:47:11,640
know, pretty, pretty strong 
outlook for 25 and beyond. 

827
00:47:11,640 --> 00:47:14,200
So I'll go 10. 
Beautiful. 

828
00:47:14,240 --> 00:47:15,960
I like it, Bentley. 
And last but not least, what's 

829
00:47:15,960 --> 00:47:18,000
going to be the worst performing
commodity next year? 

830
00:47:19,640 --> 00:47:24,640
So in the metal space, I got 2. 
I think I'll start with alumina.

831
00:47:24,800 --> 00:47:28,800
So not aluminium, but alumina. 
There's just a lot of capacity 

832
00:47:28,800 --> 00:47:30,800
coming online, especially in the
first half of the year. 

833
00:47:30,800 --> 00:47:33,960
So it might take a few months to
trickle through, but we're 

834
00:47:33,960 --> 00:47:35,800
talking about millions of tonnes
of capacity coming on in 

835
00:47:35,920 --> 00:47:40,000
Indonesia, India, and I think at
least somewhere as well. 

836
00:47:41,960 --> 00:47:45,680
Yeah, I, yeah, it's look had a 
great run and it's not that 

837
00:47:45,760 --> 00:47:48,160
necessarily bearish, super 
bearish alumina. 

838
00:47:48,160 --> 00:47:51,480
But with the capacity coming 
online, it should rebalance that

839
00:47:51,480 --> 00:47:55,240
market out a little bit. 
And you know, aluminium I think 

840
00:47:55,240 --> 00:47:58,800
is where you'd want to be even 
on a relative value basis for 

841
00:47:58,840 --> 00:48:01,200
for next year. 
And then I'll throw in a second 

842
00:48:01,200 --> 00:48:04,040
one there and I'll say not crazy
about zinc. 

843
00:48:04,040 --> 00:48:09,040
So concentrate markets are tight
as well, but fundamentally the 

844
00:48:09,040 --> 00:48:12,400
middle markets I think a little 
a little ahead of itself. 

845
00:48:13,840 --> 00:48:17,320
So aluminium, Zinc. 
Zinc stinks continues to stink. 

846
00:48:19,320 --> 00:48:21,120
I don't think we've ever had a 
fan of zinc. 

847
00:48:22,640 --> 00:48:24,680
OK, that's why you laughed on 
that one, all right? 

848
00:48:25,280 --> 00:48:27,800
Yeah, well. 
Awesome Bentley. 

849
00:48:28,080 --> 00:48:31,240
Yeah, good feel, but. 
Great to hear your predictions. 

850
00:48:31,240 --> 00:48:33,760
And yeah, we're looking forward 
to seeing how they go over the 

851
00:48:33,760 --> 00:48:35,320
next year. 
Thanks for making the time for 

852
00:48:35,320 --> 00:48:38,480
us. 
Yep, again, one of those will 

853
00:48:38,480 --> 00:48:39,720
definitely be wrong. 
Or if not all. 

854
00:48:41,720 --> 00:48:45,160
We won't hold you to them. 
Matthew fish from fire trail. 

855
00:48:45,160 --> 00:48:47,520
Thank you so much for for 
joining us on your on your 

856
00:48:47,760 --> 00:48:50,000
you're actually on on holiday 
already at Cradle Mountain. 

857
00:48:50,040 --> 00:48:52,760
It appears we've caught you, 
which is like we're stoked. 

858
00:48:52,760 --> 00:48:56,160
You could you could fit us in 
right before a very scenic hike.

859
00:48:59,600 --> 00:49:01,120
Happy to be here, always happy 
to make time. 

860
00:49:02,160 --> 00:49:05,560
Well, let's let's RIP straight 
in and let you get off onto your

861
00:49:05,760 --> 00:49:07,880
holiday feastie. 4 questions for
you. 

862
00:49:07,960 --> 00:49:11,640
We'll start with your highest 
conviction. 

863
00:49:11,640 --> 00:49:13,440
Prediction for the coming year, 
mate. 

864
00:49:14,640 --> 00:49:17,360
Absolutely. 
Look, it's been one that I've 

865
00:49:17,360 --> 00:49:19,240
been talking about for a fair 
while, so it might be a little 

866
00:49:19,240 --> 00:49:23,200
bit boring, but we just cannot 
go past Genesis Minerals. 

867
00:49:23,520 --> 00:49:27,720
We think that 2024, which is a 
bit of an entree for what's 

868
00:49:27,720 --> 00:49:30,680
coming up in 2025. 
We think we're going to see 

869
00:49:30,680 --> 00:49:33,920
significant. 
Upgrades to resources and 

870
00:49:33,920 --> 00:49:37,040
reserves, we think we're going 
to see meal expansions that 

871
00:49:37,040 --> 00:49:40,160
aren't currently in consensus 
numbers and then bring forward 

872
00:49:40,160 --> 00:49:42,800
of the Tower Hill project as 
well, which will obviously 

873
00:49:42,800 --> 00:49:46,480
increase the grade profile. 
So that remains the largest 

874
00:49:46,480 --> 00:49:49,760
stock in our fund, our largest 
mining overweight and that is 

875
00:49:49,760 --> 00:49:51,520
our highest conviction call for 
2025. 

876
00:49:53,000 --> 00:49:55,440
Really interesting mate. 
And what about your most non 

877
00:49:55,440 --> 00:50:00,880
consensus call for for 2025? 
Yeah, look for those of you, you

878
00:50:00,880 --> 00:50:02,120
or. 
Those people that have seen me 

879
00:50:02,120 --> 00:50:05,240
around this year, I may have 
spoken to some people about 

880
00:50:05,240 --> 00:50:09,480
this, but my my non consensus 
call for 2025 is is a bit out 

881
00:50:09,480 --> 00:50:12,360
there. 
It's the legalisation of uranium

882
00:50:12,360 --> 00:50:13,520
mining. 
In WA. 

883
00:50:13,760 --> 00:50:14,800
Wow. 
Huge. 

884
00:50:15,200 --> 00:50:18,840
Wow, Maddie would be devastated 
he's not recording this with 

885
00:50:18,840 --> 00:50:21,720
that right now. 
He'd be jumping on the table, I 

886
00:50:21,720 --> 00:50:23,680
reckon with that one. 
Is that on the back of a change 

887
00:50:23,680 --> 00:50:26,280
of government or you think even 
status quo government that 

888
00:50:26,280 --> 00:50:28,520
that'll that'll happen? 
I think so score. 

889
00:50:28,520 --> 00:50:30,280
I think things are changing. 
I think things are changing. 

890
00:50:30,280 --> 00:50:33,480
But it's non consensus for a 
reason, right? 

891
00:50:33,480 --> 00:50:34,920
So we'll see. 
Absolutely. 

892
00:50:35,000 --> 00:50:37,960
That's a great pick. 
We'll move on to commodity picks

893
00:50:37,960 --> 00:50:38,840
now. 
What's gonna be the best 

894
00:50:38,840 --> 00:50:43,320
performer, 50 for next year? 
We believe the best performer 

895
00:50:43,320 --> 00:50:45,480
for next year will be croaking 
coal. 

896
00:50:46,240 --> 00:50:50,360
Was tempted to pick box out for 
this one like given where it's 

897
00:50:50,360 --> 00:50:52,800
headed just in the last couple 
of weeks we've moderated our 

898
00:50:52,800 --> 00:50:55,680
view there somewhat. 
So yeah, Coke and coal is, is 

899
00:50:55,720 --> 00:50:59,120
our preferred commodity play 
from a process standpoint for 

900
00:50:59,120 --> 00:51:03,280
next year. 
Awesome and flip side 50 worst 

901
00:51:03,280 --> 00:51:07,280
performer. 
Look, it's unfortunate, but we 

902
00:51:07,280 --> 00:51:10,040
think Rare Earths will be the 
worst performer of 2025. 

903
00:51:10,720 --> 00:51:14,280
We saw what happened last time 
when there was a refinery or 

904
00:51:14,280 --> 00:51:17,840
rare earths refinery trying to 
enter into the market with Linus

905
00:51:17,840 --> 00:51:19,480
and what that did to the reverse
for us. 

906
00:51:19,840 --> 00:51:24,200
And we're we're sceptical about 
what line, I mean Lucas are 

907
00:51:24,200 --> 00:51:27,440
starting up their refinery will 
mean and construction of that 

908
00:51:27,440 --> 00:51:28,960
refinery over the next couple of
years. 

909
00:51:28,960 --> 00:51:33,080
So we're pretty negative on rare
earths in both 2025 and into 

910
00:51:33,080 --> 00:51:36,280
2026 as well. 
Fascinating. 

911
00:51:36,280 --> 00:51:38,560
Appreciate you making the time 
for us, Fisty. 

912
00:51:38,560 --> 00:51:40,640
Look forward to seeing how those
those pics go. 

913
00:51:40,640 --> 00:51:42,520
And yeah, wishing you a good 
Christmas and New Year. 

914
00:51:43,520 --> 00:51:45,040
Thank you chaps. 
Good to see what. 

915
00:51:45,320 --> 00:51:47,160
There we bloody go. 
Kudos to you boys. 

916
00:51:47,160 --> 00:51:50,880
Very well hustled, very well 
organised, very well executed, 

917
00:51:51,080 --> 00:51:54,560
as always. 
Real kudos Maddie, go to. 

918
00:51:55,000 --> 00:51:57,160
Yes, and our partners but used 
to did. 

919
00:51:57,160 --> 00:52:01,560
It Mineral mining sites grounded
Sandvik ground support CRA 

920
00:52:01,560 --> 00:52:06,440
insurance casual daysat saltbush
contracting get wet. 

921
00:52:06,760 --> 00:52:08,840
I reckon that it's the best one.
You've done all you, JD. 

922
00:52:08,960 --> 00:52:10,760
That's good energy, mate. 
Thank you. 

923
00:52:10,760 --> 00:52:11,240
Go you. 
Thank. 

924
00:52:11,240 --> 00:52:12,440
You to the money miners who to 
root. 

925
00:52:12,680 --> 00:52:16,360
Kill the goods vibes Information
contained in this episode of 

926
00:52:16,360 --> 00:52:18,720
Money of Mine is of general 
nature only and does not take 

927
00:52:18,720 --> 00:52:22,240
into account the objectives, 
financial situation or needs of 

928
00:52:22,240 --> 00:52:24,920
any particular person. 
Before making any investment 

929
00:52:24,920 --> 00:52:28,000
decision, you should consult 
with your financial advisor and 

930
00:52:28,000 --> 00:52:31,120
consider how appropriate the 
advice is to your objectives 

931
00:52:31,320 --> 00:52:33,320
financial situation. 
And needs.