Righto money miners, the end of the year is fast approaching and
we are just not letting you down because you have Part 2 of the
greatest freaking YouTube video in the history of mining and
finance. 2nd last episode of the year Maddie, but the content is
going up. It's this is like never been
point use of use have pioneered fundy predictions because it's
just never been done, never been done before and no one will ever
do it because it won't be as good as what you boys have
pulled off here. So just if you're thinking about
it, just don't even. The reason it's a good episode,
Maddie, is because JD and I say nothing and we just we just
smarter than ask to all the talking.
Right. I hope.
And look, they're not really linked, but if don't forget to,
if you're just tuning in today, don't forget to listen to Part
1, which is before, which was released yesterday because
there's just that much knowledge.
We had to split it into two episodes.
Yeah. Two unique and awesome shows,
yeah. It's it's like Seinfeld you
don't have to listen to. You could listen to this first
if you want. Well, they're not linked.
There's not much history besides knowing that Elaine and Jerry
slept together early on anyway. Other than that.
Serve yourself a mosh bite. Though while I'm on the topic,
let's get into Part 2 with the Fundy predictions for 2024.
That's rivet. 2025, yes. John Ford, thanks for joining us
on Money of Mine. I'm excited to hear your highest
conviction prediction for 2025. Yes, I've just got to do
something 1st. I'm going to put my Harry Potter
prediction hat on and that would make it.
Yeah, we got a few of them going around.
Jonas, what are you Yeah, Look, OK, we're.
All down here. Anyway, look, I think one of the
highest conviction predictions is that the TSXV Junior
Resources stocks will outperform the ASX, the ASX stocks because
ASX has been trading at a premium to North American
valuations for some time. And the, the number of companies
that have come through and told me, oh, we're looking at ISX
listing as in from North America is the big numbers this year.
So I just think, you know, as soon as those listings happen,
things will turn and also starting to see a little bit
more, you know value just as we go into the end of the year in
some of our some of our North American holdings.
I like that one mate. It's yeah definitely.
Yeah, it's actually non consensus too.
So you it might also be a non consensus prediction what or if
you've got a different. 10 look up, you know, because you know,
it's hard to work out what consensus is, but I'm pretty
sure consensus is that, you know, gold prices will sort of
trend lower over the next, you know, every year for the next 5
years. That's what most brokers usually
put into their decks. So I'm going to say, you know
gold price to strengthen further next year just because I don't
think the you know the buyers of gold primarily the central banks
have have finished that their purchases and that they won't
for some time. Yeah, fascinating.
We'll see if that one washes through to the equities over the
next year. How about the best performing
commodity for 2025? Yeah.
Look, I'm going to go with silver.
I've just done a bit of a trip overseas and you know, every
commodity that got discussed had its pros and cons, but there
were no detractors for silver. And I think, you know, silver's
got that industrial and precious metal pricing to it.
It's still really trading on an industrial basis at that sort of
plus 80 to one to gold ratio. And I think that you know we
could see that start to shorten and and you know sometimes in
past it's got down to 35 to 1. So if that happens, you know
silver will do will do very well and definitely outperform gold.
Awesome, mate. And the flip side of that was
the the grimmest outlook for a commodity you've got in 2025.
Yeah. Look, that is probably not, not
too popular, but I don't know if copper's going to do that well
next year. I think it might do well, you
know, from, you know, 18 months out.
But but next year I think it could be, could be soft again.
We've had a fairly soft year for copper this year.
And you know, I think there are some in a substitution
substitutions happening in, in the industrial world in, in
things like air conditioning and you know, other, other, other
uses. So yeah, just, you know, maybe
copper won't have a has still in a year, next year.
Might be waiting one more year for that copper narrative to to
play out by the sounds of it. Yeah.
Brilliant, John, thanks so much for, for, for joining us and
yeah, wish you the best for for Merry Christmas and Happy New
Year. Yeah, Absolute pleasure.
Thanks, guys. Have a great one.
Emmanuel dat dat capital. Thank you so much for
contributing this year to our crystal ball predictions.
This this segment's a bit, you know, irrelevant because you
already you already replied what your answers were over a tweet.
Yeah, yeah. Sorry for spoiling the surprise.
That's all right. We'll, we'll let you tell that
in audio format. But what's your highest
conviction prediction for for 2025?
Yeah, sure. My highest conviction call is WA
One Resources. One of my favourite stocks as
everyone probably knows and why I think this is going to perform
well for 2025 is that we've seen the company de risk the Project
Lean deposit significantly this year in 2024.
And we're really expecting to see some other key catalysts
such as you know, further met studies, a bit more resource
definition to a higher sort of level of confidence and then the
maiden MRE and also quite likely, you know a feasibility
study. I would say it's probably
towards the latter part of next year at this point.
And notwithstanding or the other sort of expected workflows that
you typically see with the resource development like
permitting, you know for the environmental studies et cetera,
I think that the resource itself is something that's really
scarce world class and assets like like this of this quality
and calibre and within the jurisdiction are very highly
sought after. So that's why, you know, it's
sort of one of the firm favourites in our view.
Awesome. Manny, I'll just quickly
disclose that a couple of us at Money mine hold shares in WA
1-2. Second question, what is your
most non consensus prediction for the coming year?
I like Alcoa and I like Alcoa because we've seen sort of a
number of quite material developments in the aluminium
space which Alcoa is a vertically integrated producer
and industry participant within. And these changes most notably
at the recent Chinese value added tax or that refund changes
to the VAT refund policies for Chinese exporters.
Yeah, just very briefly, Chinese VAT is 13% and if that 30% isn't
being refunded back to exporters, it effectively raises
their cost of production by that same amount.
So I think that really does bode well for ex Chinese producers
such as Alcoa. And I think given the stocks
sort of valuation multiples and you know, it's, it's the
multinational sort of footprint and and participate in all three
levels of the aluminium supply chain, I think it could do quite
well And it's it's fairly unloved or has been unloved for
for some time now. Brilliant mate.
And which commodity over the YEAH 2025 do you have the best
outlook for? Sure.
I think that this is, you know, it's a bit of a ballsy call, I
guess, from my end. I'm given how it has performed
in 2024, but we think oil will do pretty well.
That's probably for a number of reasons, most notably, as we've
seen in recent weeks, the recent unrest in the Middle East,
specifically in Syria for now, and I think it is no oil.
You know, it's, you know, essential demand is fairly
inelastic. So it's really, you know, the
supply side disruptions you've got to be conscious about.
And ultimately, if, yeah, if there's further unrest in the
Middle East, then that does provide strong potential for the
oil price to to rise substantially.
We never know, right? That's what we're in for.
Absolutely. And on the flip side of that
one, what commodity is going to be the worst performing?
I would, I've picked lead for the worst performing commodity
and why I say that is, you know, I've definitely sort of noticed
that well, you know, from the demand side, it's, it's actually
really hard to move lead I would say in any sort of major form.
I just think about projects like Adriatic metals that that
produce will be producing significant amounts of lead as
they ramp up towards nameplate, even though they're fairly small
producer, someone's going to buy it.
And but once again, demand I would consider fairly inelastic
for lead. So to see sort of, you know,
incremental sources of supply coming in into the marketplace,
I'll probably say that, yeah, it, it doesn't look overly
fascinating. You know the supply demand
dynamic lead and that's why I picked this as a potentially the
worst performing commodity. Lovely work, mate.
Yeah, it's those those committees we get the byproduct
of other minds always just kind of have a sour outlook on them.
Thanks for making the time, Manny.
Yeah, no worries. Thanks guys.
Much appreciated Headley without line selection.
Mate, we've got to give you credit.
You know, I reflected on the the answers to last year's 1 and I
think you were the closest to on the money for your prediction.
So well done mate, hopefully you can repeat your your fortune
telling capability this year. Thank you very much and thanks
for inviting me on. I don't know.
There's no such thing as a bullseye in this business, but
most of the marks can sometimes do well, can't it?
Let's let's get us started for 2025.
What's the highest conviction pick for next year, Headley?
Look, I think with the gold market that we've had this year
and some of the suggestions of M&A and even instances, I think
well my highest conviction pick for next year is that we start
to see M&A for gold developers, pre production gold companies,
drive the prices of those companies and see investors turn
back towards it. I think there's a lot of reasons
pointing to that supportive commodity, but also a really
supportive market that needs the answers in companies that are
funded to develop them. West Perth will be cheering that
one mate. What about the the non consensus
pick for 2025? Well, look, you can't you can't
pick that Kamala Harris is going to win the US election anymore
Kenya. So I better move on from that
one. Thought this one through a lot.
And I I think there's there's probably a sense that from a lot
of people that 2025 will be a year where commodities go, OK,
they might not RIP, but they'll probably be all right.
And and that'll reflect well for some of the bigger miners.
I, that's probably the thing about next year that I'm the
least comfortable with. I, I don't see a dismal year for
commodities, but I don't see a strong year and I think we'll
probably see more wash out than wash in as far as commodity
prices go. So if it was going to be
sideways to a little bit down overall, that would probably
match my expectation. And I, I think that's probably
going to be worse if you're a ABHP or a Rio because your price
has probably defied market trends and certainly fared a lot
better than the explorers and non producers.
So I think there's probably a bit of money tied up there with
some optimism attached to it. So my non consensus call would
be that it's a, it's a weakish year for BHP and Rio.
Again, not not dismal or miserable, but weakish.
Awesome. And to to pin you down to 1
commodity for the coming year, what's going to stand out from
the pack? I can't take my eyes off gold
and I think if if I was to look around the island of people who
think that gold is going to go up in 2025, it's going to be
pretty crowded. But you know gold when it moves
into bull markets, it tends to be multi year multiples of
return and we're up a bit over two times in this bull market
for gold. So I think that basis probably
sits OK with me. The dynamic of more and more
central bank buying I think is a a strong driver.
I don't see a reason for that to go away in 2025.
But I'd add to it that when gold starts to move, it's not like
other commodities. Gold doesn't butt up against a
roof price that's dictated by how much pain buyers are feeling
or what a value in use is, like copper or iron or any of those
things. Gold tends to go up because
more, more and more people think it's going to go up.
And, and that fundamental law on its own can be good for a good
part of the bull market in gold as well.
So I I think there's a fair bit going for that medal in 2025 and
possibly beyond. What about the worst performing
commodity heavily? If I'm going to make too many
friends saying this, but I mean, I look across the suite of the
key mineral commodities and again, I don't think it's going
to be a dismal year, 2025, but I just struggling to see super
optimistic drivers, particularly of some of the larger market
ones. And in my sights I suppose.
Copper sits, it's not far below it's highs of 2024.
I think it peaked in May this year.
That was very close to it's all time high, about $5.10 a pound.
It's sitting at about 4:20 a pound at the moment.
So it's not really too far off the top end of its trading
range. Most other mineral commodities
peaked in 20/21/22 and they're down somewhere between 2530
forty, 50%. So copper still sits, you know,
reasonably strong compared to a lot of those other commodities.
I, I, I buy everything that people say about, you know,
energy transition and things like that.
It's a, it's a commodity for the new economy, the old economy and
every other single economy that exists.
But I really struggle to feel that copper could sort of burst
much higher. And in fact, I think there's
probably, that's a market where there's a lot of speculation
tied up. So if there was anything to wash
out in a market that looks as if the economy is not going to
support rampant growth, then copper would be my target for
that. So I think copper will have a
weaker year than most other mineral commodities.
That's not to say it's going to have, it's just more to say that
it would be weaker. So under the under the trend
line rather than above it. Contrarian mate, I like it.
Thank you so much heavily. We yeah, really appreciate your
contributions and I look forward to having you on the potty again
next year. Thank you very much gents.
It's, it's been terrific chatting to you this year and
I'd love to join you again anytime you want, but please
have a happy Christmas and a safe and healthy New year and I
look forward to chatting to you again in 2025.
All the very best. How many mines do you think in
2025 are going to be like? Thank God we had CRE do that
insurance policy for us. 5:00 It's at least five.
It's at least more than you can count on one mate.
Unexpected stuff happens all the time in the industry and and as
a mining company, you're like, Jesus, I didn't.
I'm so glad that my insurance policy had me covered for this
thing that I did not expect. Well, it's only one every one
every two months for 2025. Yeah, yes, yes.
But mate, these floods are like one in 500 year floods that seem
to happen every year. So like, yeah, these things
happen a lot. So what do you think the main
ticket items are going to be that people are going to thank
CRE for? Probably floods.
Floods, weather, civil unrest, Business interruption?
Yeah. Property damage, Fire.
Fire. If you say 5, you know, thankful
sort of events, but I'm going to say 365 nights of mining execs
just sleeping peacefully at night because they know they're
looked after. You cannot put a price on that.
You can. It's called a premium.
That's it. But you buy each month.
But yeah, oh, peace. It's worth it for a good.
Sleep, Peace of Mind and and that's but that's mining execs
across coal, that's across metalliferous, that's across
Australia, Africa, every country in the world, lively precious
metals based metals, construction, renewables CRE do
the whole thing. Make sure you are getting looked
after. Make sure you are sleeping.
Make sure you have spoken to Dave, Adam and Steve.
Yeah. Thanks guys.
In the show, notes Joe CRE. And thanks for the Christmas
hand for two. Thank you CRE.
Good. Yeah, good prenup brittle in
that. Thank you CRE.
Kingsley Jones, long time no talk, but welcome back to Money
and Mine. We're really excited to hear
what you think is your highest conviction prediction for 2025.
Yeah. Well, look, it's going to be a
big year, I'm sure, with the US election, Donald Trump coming
back, you know, there's a lot of enthusiasm in the United States
for everything American and all the potential on offer.
We also have the huge kind of ongoing strategic competition
between China and the United States.
And so in the metal space, look, I think most, most viewers would
be thinking, well, you know, it's going to be some of these
exotic metals that make the big move, you know, maybe antimony
as we've already seen, or germanium or, you know, gallium
or, or something like that. I don't disagree with that.
But I'm calling for my big pick this year, one that hasn't been
on the radar. And the logic really is we're
very concerned in places in the West with the stuff that China
controls. But actually if you think about
it, China's concerned about the stuff the West controls.
And and so my pick is beryllium, which is a metal that the US
controls production of. It's not well known in in mining
circles because there's really only one major mine in the
United States in Utah. And that mine is owned and
operated controlled by AUS listed company called Material
MTRN. MTRN for those who are familiar
with it. It's got a diverse business, but
beryllium is a big component of it.
It's been in a bull market since 2020.
Beryllium, the metal, if you check out the trusty US
Geological Survey, you know, mineral commodity summaries, not
a big market. You know, it's measured in
hundreds of tonnes a year. I think the US, United States is
about 190 tonnes. Pretty small beer in terms of
money on offer, but good prices. So through the period up until
2022, you know, beryllium was kind of like in a steady state,
$660 a kilo, 600,000 to $700,000 a tonne, mostly produced in a
special alloy with copper. And its main use is rocketry and
electronics, aerospace and defence, but it also has a big
role in nuclear weapons. It's used as the Tampa.
In thermonuclear devices. And so China is also a producer
of beryllium, but has growing demand associated with its
aerospace industry. We think the market's starting
to tighten up quite a bit. That price of $600.00 ran in
2023 to $1400 a kilo, $1.4 million a tonne.
So we think material will make good money that's already making
good money, but we think actually this is a metal off the
radar with a very specific single mine investment thesis.
Fantastic and appreciate the background because my beryllium
knowledge is not what it could be.
You might have answered this one as well, but have you got
another non consensus pick for the coming year?
Yeah. Look, the big one would be I
think precious metals will have an off year because they have
had such a good year this year and so many other metals have
have really been, you know, having taking it in the neck.
Just look at lithium, look also at iron ore.
So look, I think that the metals in general will probably have a
recovery year this year. We think there'll be a continued
enthusiasm pro growth risk on environment as we've already
seen with crypto, you know, obviously crypto, precious
metals complex, they tend to move a little bit together,
crypto more than gold and silver, but I think this will be
possibly a down year for gold and silver.
So a bit of a retracement there. Great mate.
What about the best performing commodity?
Yeah. Look, this is a the related to
the top thematic pick with beryllium.
But let's elaborate because there are many possible choices
here, particularly amongst the minor medals, the critical
minerals, the specialty medals, however we choose to call them.
So look, I think that, you know, in the in the mainstream
discussion, there's a lot of talk about this US, China
competition. And mostly it centres on things
that the USA declares they're short of the critical minerals
like rare earths and vanadium and niobium and all kinds of
things like that, which are dominated by China.
I don't actually think they're going to be a big place for
price movements to the upside simply because they're dominated
by China. And China actually has its
investment ducts lined up to expand production in friendly
countries to China, mainly in Africa and Latin America when it
needs the mineral. So look, I don't think there's
going to be a strong environment for those metals,
notwithstanding the enthusiasm for new discovery which is
there. So putting those aside, we have
to sort of flip the script and ask which are the medals that
USA actually dominates demand off.
So move away from this idea that there's going to be a supply
constraint and look more at demand, but look at the shock to
that demand. And I think that in the United
States where they clearly do have a strong, strong position
is in aerospace and defence. You know, if you looked at the
biggest exports that the United States has, China, it's things
like petrochemicals, semiconductor equipment,
semiconductors and jet planes, you know, mainly civilian of
course. So when you look at the USA and
you look at the say, the current defence expenditures, the
prospect that we're using up a lot of war material in places
like Ukraine with the Ukraine Russia war and so on.
There's a lot of inventory drawdown in U.S. defence stocks.
And that's going to translate to new builds of mostly missiles,
but also things like aircraft and so on.
And not only in the United States, obviously in in Russia
and China as well, and also places like India.
So with that in mind, you know, my list is a target list of
aerospace metals, which are mainly hard metals, light metals
or refractory metals and also nuclear, so including civilian
nuclear and military nuclear in this.
So if you look at closely at that, there's a short list of
metals and things like tungsten, which is hard, titanium, which
is light, Other metals like zirconium and hafnium, which
mainly have applications in the nuclear industry, particularly
in high purity form. And then some other exotics like
rhenium, which is a very, very rare metal that is mostly a
product of copper and molybdenum smelting and it's used in
military aircraft in percentages up to about 9% of turbine blade
can be metallic uranium. And then finally, you know the
one that I had in my big pick at the beginning, which is
beryllium. And beryllium, it's not a big
market, but it's vital to the aerospace industry, particularly
rockets. And you're going to see NASA
going back to the moon soon. China's going to the moon,
airline's launching rockets like there's no tomorrow, and also
the missile industry is cheering them up.
Single use is always best for growing demand, and there's
nothing like the military for a single use product.
So I think that beryllium is going to have a a good couple of
years here and I think it's the Chinese that are going to
struggle to fuel their own demand and that's what's going
to tighten this market. the US withdrew material is pretty
focused on local demand in the United States.
But we think there's going to be a surprise to the upside.
That process started in 2023. We think it's going to only
strengthen going forward as this demand from the space industry
grows. So that's my top pick there,
right there, Beryllium to the upside and you can play that.
The best way to play that is not to buy the metal, but to buy the
stock material. Fantastic.
And last 1 Kingsley, what's going to be the worst performing
commodity next year? Yeah, I, I'm, I'm horrified to
say this, but I think it's going to be gold or silver and, and
not, not not in a terrible way. I'm actually a bull strictly on
on both gold and silver long term.
But I think because they had such a good year in 2024 when
other medals were having a bad year.
I just think that, you know, reverse and reverse of the dogs
of the Dow. Well, similar to the dogs of the
Dow theory in stocks, you know that last year's perform worst
performer does does well this year.
I think there's so many bad performers.
In the middle. Space in 2024 that it's going to
be hard for gold and silver to keep up.
And in fact, I think they're going to retrace a modest amount
of this year's splendid gains. So for the bulls in the market,
it's not going to be a terrible year.
They might see a 1015% retracement.
And of those, I'd say silver being the high beta mill is is
going to move down, down more. So I don't think it's going to
be a terrible year. I think -15% would be the limit
of the downside in the silver mine.
Fantastic. Thanks for joining us and
sharing your predictions for 2025, Kingsley.
Pleasure to be with you guys again.
All the best for the new year and have a great holiday season.
Likewise, Warren Gilman, thank you so much for joining us for
the Crystal Bowl edition of Money of Mine.
I'm very curious to know what your yeah your most high
conviction prediction is for 2025.
Well, you said it could be thematic stock, specific
commodity. Mine's probably all of those
things and unfortunately it's probably not going to be a
surprise and it's going to be consistent with last year, which
is the whole, you know, energy security idea.
Uranium is the way to play it and next Gen is the stock to
play it. So thematic stock specific,
commodity specific, those are all the predictions largely the
same as last year, played out reasonably well.
We hit a new all time high for next Gen during the course of
the year, so that's good. Check that box.
Uranium spot prices are not behaving well, but term prices
have hit a new high barring, you know, the the big peak in 2000
and seven, 2008. So term prices, that's a new
high tech and the thematic continues to play out obviously
with the the big players like Microsoft and Amazon and Meta
and all of those guys. Getting into the nuclear game.
So all of those boxes largely checked, but going to continue
that prediction for 2025 and you know uranium in the next Gen is
the way to go it. Fantastic, Warren.
And how about your most non consensus pick?
Well, I guess it depends on your gentleman's call with respect to
what is consensus. I, I can give you a view on all
sorts of different things. You know, one of the things that
I'm quite bearish on is notwithstanding I'm I'm bullish
on uranium and one might think that I'm therefore bullish on a
energy thematic and often times uranium trades hand in hand on a
daily or even hourly basis with oil.
But I'm bearish on oil for a multitude of reasons.
I don't know if that's non consensus.
I think it is, but I'm bearish on oil and so I'm bearish on
carbon based energy. I'm also continue to be bearish
on lithium. I don't know if your friends in
your neighbourhood, your neck of the woods, you're all big
lithium players and you're always calling the bottom and
saying hey, it's about to turn. Well, I don't think it's about
to turn. You know, we had Rio announced
today that they're spending 2 1/2 billion on the expansion in
Argentina. And we get more and more, you
know, non Aussie players saying we're going to build, we're
going to expand. Just what the world?
Needs is another expansion or another new lithium.
I mean, it's the last thing in the world that the world needs.
So I can't see how we can have a turn when some people are
shedding in supply while others are getting into the game and
adding to the supply, the oversupply.
So if those are non consensus then that's my vote.
Brilliant, right? And what about the the best
performing commodity for 2025? I'm going to guess.
Go out on a limb here and guess it's uranium.
Yeah, it's uranium and you know, the spot price hasn't been
performing and I think there's a little bit of management going
on by certain players in the market with respect to the spot
price. I think that'll clear by year
end. And you know, Bammel has a
forecast I think for next year, average price of $120.00 a
pound. You know, Bank of America, you
know, that's more than 50% increase from where we are
today. So I'm with Bammel and I think
it's going to be a a great year for for uranium.
And have you got another worst performing commodity if we set
aside the the oil and lithium sectors?
Yeah, well, you know, it's probably not non consensus, but.
The same story on nickel. You know, I was a bear on nickel
this year. I think I voted for that last
year as my worst performing commodity.
I don't see any reason to change that.
I mean, you've got the US bringing funding.
To new mines and expansions in Brazil to have security of
supply again, just what the world needs a new nickel mine in
Brazil when we've got. Vast oversupply coming out of
Indonesia and the Philippines, so unfortunately I don't see a
turn in that one either. Not too many friends in the in
the nickel space. Warren, thanks for coming on the
show and hope you have a great Christmas and New Year.
Same to you gentlemen. Have a great 1 and I look
forward to watching the episode and hearing everyone else's
views. Very.
Amazing. 2025 Prediction for the most successful geophysical
survey conduct a Bodger dash sat.
That's that's a certainty I've got.
I can one up that on the prediction front, I reckon the
biggest discovery of 2025 will be will be a result of.
Dash sat. Dash sat Nathan Dash's like
industry leading geophysics capability will be responsible
for the next big discovery. I reckon it's going to be pretty
imminent with the 8 gravity crews currently working in WA.
I reckon one of those crews are going to find it. 8 88 with a
basic account. Mogi.
Which is the hub. So wait, I reckon we're going to
be putting A1 in front of that eight.
I think there's going to be 18 gravity crews and mate, there's
going to be drones. There's going to be on the
ground, above ground geophysics down flat stick in 2025 by Daish
sat in WA. So I would be getting calling
them now. So that is the Oricon they're
going to absolutely take off in WA for GI Fizz.
Maddie, I heard tell me, tell me if I'm speaking at a school
here, there's a 10X increase in the number of targets that you
will have on your tenements if you use these guys for your GF
is work. Yeah, yeah, that is, that is
100% correct, like. 10 times. I thought it heard that one
right. Yeah, I've heard it.
I've heard it 10 times. That is 10X like.
That I'm excited to go into 2025 knowing people will be using
data set and there's that much exciting exploration going on
out there in the industry. Yeah, and I I just think
especially with the emerging copper theme deep hidden
undercover, don't drill for it. Don't just start poking holes
in. Don't waste your shower does.
Get Daish Sat to find the anomaly and give you the target
1st go Nathan Daish. Merry Christmas to Daish Sat and
I look forward to seeing them fucking everywhere in WA next
year. Beautiful.
Warren Erwin, thank you for joining us.
I'm excited to hear your highest conviction prediction for 2025.
My highest conviction prediction would be colonial coal as text
coal assets get sold, met coal assets and then you know Peace
River coal gets sold by Anglo and the Australian assets get
sold by Anglo. Anglo and Kestrel being put up
for sale and having many many multiples of bidders.
I think eventually, once the producing assets are out of the
way, there's going to be quite a bit of demand for the
extraordinary assets Colonial Coal has in a tremendous
jurisdiction with infrastructure and massive amounts of met, high
quality met coal. I think they'll be they'll be in
demand by all the people who missed out on the bidding.
Yeah, I like it. I I'm now curious what your most
non consensus prediction is. Why?
Yeah. Well, one other thing before we
get to the non consensus, one other thing too, given you're
you're in Australia, What I'd keep an eye out for is what's
going to be happening for any former Rio Tinto guys.
Take a look at the Walker Dawson will be drilled this this May by
a Canadian company called GPM metals.
That'll be something to watch for many people at formerly at
Rio or even at Rio now they may have heard of the Walker Dawson.
It had legendary, legendary proportions within Rio Tinto for
quite some time. So it'll be drilled.
Non consensus would be I'm not a fan of battery metals, batteries
right now or not of the performance you need to be.
So we don't know what the chemistry is.
So to spend three years finding some battery metals, another
three years permitting, three years building and then you
know, massive cycle times when we really don't know what'll be
in the batteries. It'll actually bring the
mainstream on. You know, nobody's nobody's
buying battery, nobody's buying electric vehicles here.
The sales of stall they're sitting on, sitting on people's
lots. I'm not sure if it's the case in
Australia, but that's pretty much died off.
So that's very non consensus. Not touching battery metals,
yeah. Very interesting to hear hear
that one and hear the Canadian perspective.
Warren, how about the best performing commodity for next
year? Well, the thing the best and the
worst performing, I take it. You know, it's tough to do a
year prediction on commodities, but let's put it this way.
The reason I'm positive on METCO would be my choice.
The reason I'm positive on it is certainly from what I've seen,
we've got lots and lots of companies looking for uranium,
yet we have 0 companies in the world looking for METCO.
Nobody's looking for it. It's out of favour.
Everybody hates it, yet India needs a monstrous amount of it
over the next decade or subsequent decades to build
their steel inventory up within their economy.
So I'm a big fan of met coal. Obviously, there's a lot of
buyers of recent met coal assets.
They share my view. So I'm a big fan of met coal.
I think there'll be a lot of money made in the sector over
the next while. And the flip side of that one,
we're in the West performing for 25 of.
Course it's going to be uranium, right?
Everybody's super pumped on uranium.
I'm a huge fan of nuclear power, but you know, we've just had a
four fold increase in the price of uranium off the 17 level
where I was piling in very odd situation where you have you
know, people have been calling for 150 two $100 uranium for a
long time hasn't happened yet. You know, the, the supply demand
deficit seems to be met every year, despite the fact that spud
yellow cake and H1 speculators out of the US and globally have
been hoovering up uranium out of the market to the tune of at
least 100,000,000 lbs, which is, you know, more than half a
year's consumption of, of uranium.
So if that ever happened in the the other thing too is at a
price of 75 bucks, pretty much every uranium property I've seen
in the entire world is economic. So you put that in copper terms.
Can you imagine somebody stepping into the copper market,
buying half the year's consumption out of the market,
having the price of copper at a level where every project that
you're aware of is economic and it's already gone up four times
and you have rabid interest in it and everybody's screaming
it's going to 150 or 200. And then on the on the demand
side, you can't build reactors fast enough.
There's a base of 440. Chinese are building like 50
plus by the time they come on, it's not it's low single digit
growth and demand. So I mean that doesn't include,
you know, our reactor base is old.
Most a lot of them were built, you know, in the 70s, eighties.
So they're getting old and some of them will have to be
decommissioned and cannot be extended.
So how's that for a negative view on a commodity that
everybody loves and thinks I'm an idiot for not thinking it's
going to 200 bucks? I get a few people talk and
thanks again for your time Warren, appreciate it.
Thanks, gentlemen. Have a great day.
Thank you. Dan Porter from Pure Asset
Management, thanks for joining us.
I am keen to hear your highest prediction pick for 2025 mate.
Yeah, thanks guys. Look, I, we're all sort of
sitting here on the East Coast, particularly of Australia,
wondering where the hell we're going to get some gas from for
next year. And for me, I think gas prices
are going to get a RIP and that's not on the basis of oil
prices going higher. I actually think all will be an
underperformer. But we've got a serious problem
in the East Coast of Australia. And I think IMO just released a
report a couple of days ago. Suggesting the same.
Thing when I talk to suppliers out there, all potential want to
be supplies, certainly gas prices, the Ford curve is
turning up higher than $20 over the next six months.
So for us at Pure, we do have a couple of investments in that
gas space. But for me, I think East Coast
gas prices are going to be the place to be over the next 12
months. Nice mate, what about your most
non consensus prediction for 25? Look, I actually think iron
ore's going to have a decent run.
I know everyone last year was talking about iron ore coming
off sharply. It has come off a bit over the
course of the year, although it's bounced back a little bit
now. But I think with a bit looser
monetary policy, you're going to get some threats of tariffs
obviously coming out of the US and that's going to have a a
negative impact on growth rates around the world.
I think people are going to be forced to do some stimulus at
the end of the day. And I think the bulks are going
to be one of the beneficiaries of that.
And I think I know it's probably going to be the the way to play
that given that you might have to say the Chinese actually have
to pull the trigger and do some proper stimulus now and
sentiment towards it has been pretty negative.
So I think you could get a sharp online than that one.
So that'd be my most non consensus people though have to
caveat and probably not not super aware of where everyone
else is going with iron ore forecast at the moment.
But for me, I think that's going to be my my best anti consensus
1. I like it.
Casting aside maybe East Coast gas for the minute, and iron ore
for that matter, what's going to be the best performing
commodity? Look, I actually think
tungsten's going to have a good run here.
Let's see Trev laughing then. I thought this might be coming.
We're obviously heavily invested there, but it's look, I tungsten
has been a surprisingly good performer in the last two years
and you've got a massive supply and demand in balance between
West Coast western markets. Sorry.
And and what's produced out of China.
So you've got 85% of product coming out of China and
governments around the world are scrambling to get tungsten's
supply. I think there's going to be a
pretty big boost in defence spending, particularly at the US
and the US doesn't have a reliable source of tungsten.
There's definitely a lot of interest in Australian supply of
tungsten. It's a good supplier, it's a
stable partner for the most part being on which government's in
control, but for the most part we're pretty stable on on laws
and jurisdictions here. So I think Tyson's actually
going to have a good run in the next four months and it flies
under the radar quite a bit. But we've seen a fair bit of
activity in the space in the last six months.
Certainly there's a few domestic producers there.
Some have been better performers than than others, but I think
there's some. Good by mention.
Behind that price now it's at a very tight point in the market
as well. And we can see that by the lack
of pricing movement over the last two years.
It is very, very tight. So Tyson and I think it was
probably one that's going to be a small, small exposure for most
players, but I think it's going to have a good run.
Nice, Stan. And flip side of that, what's
the worst performing commodity? Look, that's a, that's a tough
one over the next over the next year.
I actually think oil's got some downside here.
You know, it's economy obviously between East Coast gas markets
and oil. Usually they do run gas prices
and oil run in conjunction, but there's differences for that
this year which are pretty specific.
But I think with global economic growth coming off the boil, I
think oil is probably the one that gets towards the most.
There's probably some downside. As we know in resources markets,
yesterday's loop uses loses are usually tomorrow's winners, but
I think oil is probably most susceptible to some more
downside from here. Great.
Thanks for sharing your your picks, Dan, and looking forward
to seeing how they fare over 2025.
Yeah, thanks guys. Look forward to catching up next
year. Beautiful.
Have a nice Christmas. Yeah, cheers.
Bentley Adebury, thank you so much for for for dialling in all
hours of the the, the morning night anytime for you.
But we're we're glad we've got you and we're very keen to know
what your highest conviction prediction for 2025 is.
Well, highest, highest conviction prediction for 25 is
that everything I say in the next something that I say in the
next 5 minutes is going to be wrong.
So that's. That's always good.
Always a given, right. I mean, look outside of that, I
think there's actually a lot of uncertainty out there,
especially that we see had conversations about this past
couple weeks. But so I'll say conviction wise,
not that high, but I, I think there's if you want to look from
someone to, you know, I guess deal in the financial markets, a
good, a good conviction play is to, you know, be be long
volatility in, in some of the, I guess metal like PGM space right
now. I think it's a good thing to be
long volatility in especially Palladium, which based, you
know, it kind of means right, you're down the lower nines then
play some upside to it. Don't, don't, don't hold your
breath for, you know, a Palladium going back to like
1200 maybe. But yeah, I think there's a
good, there's good movements in there and that's that'll be my
highest conviction is just volatility in in PGMS.
How about your most non consensus pick?
So I had to I had to message Trav about this one before it'd
be like, what? What are the consensus going
into next year? And his answer was funny, but I
would say non consensus though just from a similar to answer
the one I just gave for #1 actually I would say short gold,
not necessarily because I'm bearish gold in the long run,
but just because when the market gets so weighted in One
Direction, you have you have the recipe for something sharp in
the opposite direction. And if there is any, let's say
market sell off in the financial space just like financial paper
markets, then I think gold would be right for a steep pull back
was something we saw somewhere in 2020, right, COVID happened
and it was one of the sold off pretty hard.
So similar concept to that. I'll just go with that for now.
I like it, Bentley. And how about the best
performing commodity for 25? So I met with some of the tin
barons last week and jokes aside, actually do the look.
The tin con market's very, very tight.
Let's say we've seen some smelters out in China starting
to basically use their tailings piles, which would be very low
percentage, 10 to, you know, feedback into their smelters.
And then, you know, we have a lot of demand for it as well.
And it's just not a market that's going to correct very
quickly. And even though prices dip back
below 30,000 and 10 metal on the LME, we think that makes it, you
know, pretty, pretty strong outlook for 25 and beyond.
So I'll go 10. Beautiful.
I like it, Bentley. And last but not least, what's
going to be the worst performing commodity next year?
So in the metal space, I got 2. I think I'll start with alumina.
So not aluminium, but alumina. There's just a lot of capacity
coming online, especially in the first half of the year.
So it might take a few months to trickle through, but we're
talking about millions of tonnes of capacity coming on in
Indonesia, India, and I think at least somewhere as well.
Yeah, I, yeah, it's look had a great run and it's not that
necessarily bearish, super bearish alumina.
But with the capacity coming online, it should rebalance that
market out a little bit. And you know, aluminium I think
is where you'd want to be even on a relative value basis for
for next year. And then I'll throw in a second
one there and I'll say not crazy about zinc.
So concentrate markets are tight as well, but fundamentally the
middle markets I think a little a little ahead of itself.
So aluminium, Zinc. Zinc stinks continues to stink.
I don't think we've ever had a fan of zinc.
OK, that's why you laughed on that one, all right?
Yeah, well. Awesome Bentley.
Yeah, good feel, but. Great to hear your predictions.
And yeah, we're looking forward to seeing how they go over the
next year. Thanks for making the time for
us. Yep, again, one of those will
definitely be wrong. Or if not all.
We won't hold you to them. Matthew fish from fire trail.
Thank you so much for for joining us on your on your
you're actually on on holiday already at Cradle Mountain.
It appears we've caught you, which is like we're stoked.
You could you could fit us in right before a very scenic hike.
Happy to be here, always happy to make time.
Well, let's let's RIP straight in and let you get off onto your
holiday feastie. 4 questions for you.
We'll start with your highest conviction.
Prediction for the coming year, mate.
Absolutely. Look, it's been one that I've
been talking about for a fair while, so it might be a little
bit boring, but we just cannot go past Genesis Minerals.
We think that 2024, which is a bit of an entree for what's
coming up in 2025. We think we're going to see
significant. Upgrades to resources and
reserves, we think we're going to see meal expansions that
aren't currently in consensus numbers and then bring forward
of the Tower Hill project as well, which will obviously
increase the grade profile. So that remains the largest
stock in our fund, our largest mining overweight and that is
our highest conviction call for 2025.
Really interesting mate. And what about your most non
consensus call for for 2025? Yeah, look for those of you, you
or. Those people that have seen me
around this year, I may have spoken to some people about
this, but my my non consensus call for 2025 is is a bit out
there. It's the legalisation of uranium
mining. In WA.
Wow. Huge.
Wow, Maddie would be devastated he's not recording this with
that right now. He'd be jumping on the table, I
reckon with that one. Is that on the back of a change
of government or you think even status quo government that
that'll that'll happen? I think so score.
I think things are changing. I think things are changing.
But it's non consensus for a reason, right?
So we'll see. Absolutely.
That's a great pick. We'll move on to commodity picks
now. What's gonna be the best
performer, 50 for next year? We believe the best performer
for next year will be croaking coal.
Was tempted to pick box out for this one like given where it's
headed just in the last couple of weeks we've moderated our
view there somewhat. So yeah, Coke and coal is, is
our preferred commodity play from a process standpoint for
next year. Awesome and flip side 50 worst
performer. Look, it's unfortunate, but we
think Rare Earths will be the worst performer of 2025.
We saw what happened last time when there was a refinery or
rare earths refinery trying to enter into the market with Linus
and what that did to the reverse for us.
And we're we're sceptical about what line, I mean Lucas are
starting up their refinery will mean and construction of that
refinery over the next couple of years.
So we're pretty negative on rare earths in both 2025 and into
2026 as well. Fascinating.
Appreciate you making the time for us, Fisty.
Look forward to seeing how those those pics go.
And yeah, wishing you a good Christmas and New Year.
Thank you chaps. Good to see what.
There we bloody go. Kudos to you boys.
Very well hustled, very well organised, very well executed,
as always. Real kudos Maddie, go to.
Yes, and our partners but used to did.
It Mineral mining sites grounded Sandvik ground support CRA
insurance casual daysat saltbush contracting get wet.
I reckon that it's the best one. You've done all you, JD.
That's good energy, mate. Thank you.
Go you. Thank.
You to the money miners who to root.
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