1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:04,080 Right eye money miners. We were just about to record and 2 00:00:04,080 --> 00:00:05,680 have a look what bloody rocked up we've. 3 00:00:05,680 --> 00:00:10,240 Got a lovely gift from a money? Miner Oh shout out to WA gifts 4 00:00:10,240 --> 00:00:14,040 and hampers. But this is like this is a 5 00:00:14,040 --> 00:00:20,040 result of bloody great land gold getting Telfa because straight 6 00:00:20,080 --> 00:00:24,920 from as you can see. I'll take a photo of it to serve 7 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:29,160 Matty Michael and his serfs from Sir Stewie the Pom. 8 00:00:29,160 --> 00:00:30,360 Great Stewie Hinds. Oh. 9 00:00:30,720 --> 00:00:31,280 Thank you. He's. 10 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:33,360 Trying to buy. Sorry Stewie, we're not talking 11 00:00:33,360 --> 00:00:36,440 about bloody Telfer or Grayland or anyone today, but very 12 00:00:36,440 --> 00:00:40,280 timely. Cause today's our 400th episode. 13 00:00:40,840 --> 00:00:42,840 Oh money of mine. It's crazy, isn't? 14 00:00:43,400 --> 00:00:47,000 It oh bloody it. It is the that that is our Super 15 00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:48,880 Bowl, Jason. It is our Super Bowl. 16 00:00:49,280 --> 00:00:51,040 Oh, poor old Taylor Swift to be upset. 17 00:00:51,080 --> 00:00:55,480 Yeah, I know Trav didn't win. No, no luck for the No luck for 18 00:00:55,480 --> 00:00:57,480 Kansas. The Eagles took it away this 19 00:00:57,480 --> 00:00:58,880 year, Yeah. There you go. 20 00:00:59,000 --> 00:01:00,240 It's amazing. They look back. 21 00:01:00,240 --> 00:01:04,599 I think they played years ago and a few years ago, but Kansas 22 00:01:04,599 --> 00:01:06,240 City beat them. The other way round. 23 00:01:06,240 --> 00:01:09,440 Oh, it's just, it's just real NFL show, right? 24 00:01:09,720 --> 00:01:13,320 Let's get to something we know a bit more about than NFL uranium. 25 00:01:14,040 --> 00:01:16,600 We're gonna tour, there's a bit of bloody uranium news I'm gonna 26 00:01:16,600 --> 00:01:20,000 mix together couple of podcasts in views, news articles and me 27 00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:22,080 just making up things that might happen. 28 00:01:22,400 --> 00:01:24,960 Love it, but it sounds the more I write about it, the more I 29 00:01:24,960 --> 00:01:26,120 believe it. It's great. 30 00:01:26,840 --> 00:01:28,640 J So you're heading out to Cobar? 31 00:01:28,760 --> 00:01:31,640 Yeah, to covering a bit of Poly metals. 32 00:01:31,960 --> 00:01:36,400 We're looking at a bit of a a peculiar small cap takeover bid 33 00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:40,040 and just some lithium around the grounds as well. 34 00:01:40,040 --> 00:01:42,280 But let's get into your uranium use. 35 00:01:42,360 --> 00:01:43,920 What's what's going on? What? 36 00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:45,680 Has happened. Educate me. 37 00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:50,080 Nothing really, I don't think, but I'll just make a segment out 38 00:01:50,080 --> 00:01:50,760 of. It let's do. 39 00:01:50,840 --> 00:01:56,200 It the so as we've seen the old spot price back below 70 again 40 00:01:56,200 --> 00:02:00,480 sitting at 69 bucks though you've got the long term, the 41 00:02:00,480 --> 00:02:03,800 long term price, term price. Yeah, yeah. 42 00:02:06,040 --> 00:02:09,039 Starting. Strong 82 bucks a pound midterm 43 00:02:09,039 --> 00:02:14,800 sitting at 76 so yeah it's like that spot process continued to 44 00:02:15,120 --> 00:02:19,880 have pressure on it and there is some comments from a podcast 45 00:02:19,880 --> 00:02:23,520 that come out a YouTube vid that come out during the week with 46 00:02:23,800 --> 00:02:27,240 from triangle investor who interviewed Grant Isaac from 47 00:02:27,240 --> 00:02:32,840 he's pretty much the top dog second in charge you'd say for 48 00:02:32,840 --> 00:02:37,000 Kamiko, which was I don't think I've ever seen him on a podcast 49 00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:40,520 before I'm not sure but it's a pretty he's interesting. 50 00:02:40,840 --> 00:02:45,200 Kamiko are the bloody alongside 'cause Adam Prom as we know the 51 00:02:45,200 --> 00:02:48,560 most influential player in the uranium market globally. 52 00:02:48,560 --> 00:02:51,520 So it was a good yarn. We'll get into that later. 53 00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:56,720 But also seen out from our good friend, geez, we've got friends 54 00:02:56,720 --> 00:02:58,440 everywhere. Looks like we're really 55 00:02:58,440 --> 00:03:00,720 influenced. But I just like it. 56 00:03:00,800 --> 00:03:02,800 I just like people. Shoot me. 57 00:03:02,920 --> 00:03:05,320 Oh, Peter Kerr, our great friend Peter Kerr. 58 00:03:05,360 --> 00:03:08,080 What do you have to? Say, well, he wrote an article 59 00:03:08,080 --> 00:03:12,840 today about BHP boys uranium bulls with plans for small 60 00:03:12,840 --> 00:03:15,880 increase in production. And I think I mentioned it the 61 00:03:15,880 --> 00:03:20,120 other week saying that, you know, if it was completely 62 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:23,120 opposite to this, saying that if the there was that thought out 63 00:03:23,120 --> 00:03:28,920 there that if BHP expanded Olympic dam, that the say, if 64 00:03:28,920 --> 00:03:32,080 the copper production doubled, the uranium production would 65 00:03:32,920 --> 00:03:36,840 increase at a higher factor because there was that there was 66 00:03:36,840 --> 00:03:39,920 that narrative going around. So, you know, they're producing, 67 00:03:40,520 --> 00:03:46,280 you know, 8 to 10,000,000 lbs already of uranium as, as a by 68 00:03:46,280 --> 00:03:49,480 product, but still bloody chunky, chunky amounts. 69 00:03:49,480 --> 00:03:52,400 So they were thinking if they, you know, doubled it, they could 70 00:03:52,400 --> 00:03:54,440 really bring a lot of uranium into the market. 71 00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:58,600 But then what I guess BHP have, you know, they've submitted 72 00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:02,840 paperwork to the authorities about the smelter expansion, 73 00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:04,840 which would double copper production and pretty much 74 00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:08,120 saying that I'll, I'll bring it up here. 75 00:04:08,560 --> 00:04:12,240 A lot of the extra feed coming from Carapatina and Prominent 76 00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:17,000 Hill is said to not contain that much uranium, so the uranium 77 00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:20,760 won't actually increase that much if they double double from, 78 00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:23,880 you know, 300 odd 1000 tonne of copper to 600,000. 79 00:04:23,960 --> 00:04:27,440 Which would have made a lot of uranium investors sort of calm, 80 00:04:27,560 --> 00:04:30,440 calm down a little bit, I guess. Yeah, yeah, exactly. 81 00:04:30,440 --> 00:04:34,960 So which is? Yeah, I don't, I don't know. 82 00:04:34,960 --> 00:04:37,080 I guess it's one of those believe it when I see it things 83 00:04:37,080 --> 00:04:41,080 because I know the logic the whole thing around caropotene 84 00:04:41,080 --> 00:04:45,680 and prominent Hill being bought into BHP was that there is parts 85 00:04:45,680 --> 00:04:50,240 of those mines that do have higher levels of uranium in it 86 00:04:50,240 --> 00:04:54,040 and that was like a bottle a constraint for OS minerals 87 00:04:54,040 --> 00:04:57,960 because they didn't have they couldn't effectively mine them 88 00:04:58,240 --> 00:05:01,000 as easy because the uranium levels well they didn't have the 89 00:05:01,000 --> 00:05:04,680 processing solution for it. And I think it would have 90 00:05:04,680 --> 00:05:08,000 affected the concentrate like getting it shipped out if it had 91 00:05:08,040 --> 00:05:11,480 high levels of radioactivity. But you know, combining it with 92 00:05:11,480 --> 00:05:14,080 the Olympic dam and having that all together now you've got the 93 00:05:14,360 --> 00:05:16,280 processing solution. So you don't have to be as 94 00:05:16,280 --> 00:05:19,840 selective with the mining. So yeah, I'm not in the weeds 95 00:05:19,840 --> 00:05:23,040 enough about Carapatina and Promil, but there was still will 96 00:05:23,040 --> 00:05:27,080 be some uranium coming from those operations whether they 97 00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:29,480 target that or not in the scheduling. 98 00:05:29,480 --> 00:05:32,520 But they've pretty much said it for doubling in the copper, 99 00:05:32,520 --> 00:05:34,760 it'll be a 1% increase in uranium. 100 00:05:34,760 --> 00:05:36,720 I think I read SO. Not as much as paper we're 101 00:05:36,720 --> 00:05:38,440 expecting. Basically no. 102 00:05:38,480 --> 00:05:43,200 And so look, how do you read into that lot BHP's thoughts on 103 00:05:43,200 --> 00:05:48,360 like they're trying to, I suppose the 10 eight to 104 00:05:48,360 --> 00:05:50,960 10,000,000 lbs they're selling from Olympic Dam is pretty 105 00:05:50,960 --> 00:05:54,680 bugger all compared to what BHP make a year out of iron ore and 106 00:05:54,680 --> 00:05:56,280 copper. So you know, they're they're 107 00:05:56,280 --> 00:05:59,400 trying not to lower the uranium price, but it doesn't really 108 00:05:59,400 --> 00:06:02,960 have a material effect at all on BHP for how much they produce. 109 00:06:02,960 --> 00:06:07,920 But they're not talking the price down that they want to buy 110 00:06:07,920 --> 00:06:09,760 a heapy uranium. You could infer. 111 00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:14,400 So don't know, maybe they're not a buyer of next Gen. but we'll 112 00:06:14,400 --> 00:06:18,240 get to that later. OK, hold on for that one. 113 00:06:18,520 --> 00:06:20,680 So. This potty now you mentioned 114 00:06:20,720 --> 00:06:23,560 earlier with the Kamiko exec, So what? 115 00:06:23,640 --> 00:06:25,040 What? Was that about shout out to 116 00:06:25,320 --> 00:06:29,360 Lucian from Triangle Investor? Bloody highly recommend watching 117 00:06:29,360 --> 00:06:31,680 the whole interview. It was very, very interesting 118 00:06:31,720 --> 00:06:35,480 and very, you know, Kamiko, he's like he was swinging himself 119 00:06:35,480 --> 00:06:37,960 around a bit as Kamiko's like, we're right. 120 00:06:37,960 --> 00:06:41,280 Yeah, we're like, you know, we're we're the holding the keys 121 00:06:41,760 --> 00:06:44,960 to the closet here. Is that a saying? 122 00:06:45,000 --> 00:06:47,400 It is now the gate. Keys to the Kingdom? 123 00:06:47,520 --> 00:06:50,040 Oh yeah, it's one of those. Something like that. 124 00:06:50,360 --> 00:06:53,080 I love it out the YouTube comments talking about how much 125 00:06:53,080 --> 00:06:54,920 I'll waffle on like I don't care. 126 00:06:55,320 --> 00:06:57,320 The more you comment, the more I'm going to do it. 127 00:06:57,440 --> 00:07:02,200 So whatever. So I guess I'll play a couple of 128 00:07:02,840 --> 00:07:06,600 could play a couple of snippets to highlight and we'll and we'll 129 00:07:06,600 --> 00:07:07,840 have a yarn about it. OK. 130 00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:13,040 This first one from Grant was around I guess the spot market 131 00:07:13,400 --> 00:07:17,320 and you know, Kamikow like very contracted. 132 00:07:17,320 --> 00:07:20,480 They're actually talks about in the interview how they they're 133 00:07:20,480 --> 00:07:24,840 contracted 30% more than they're going to produce like because in 134 00:07:25,040 --> 00:07:28,240 over the long term because of their, you know what they've got 135 00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:30,960 in other resources that are on care and maintenance or 136 00:07:31,200 --> 00:07:33,000 brownfield stuff they could bring back on. 137 00:07:33,000 --> 00:07:37,160 So they're, you know, in the spot market, they're not very 138 00:07:37,160 --> 00:07:40,080 active, but they're talking about comments about people that 139 00:07:40,200 --> 00:07:42,080 are active in the spot market. Let's play. 140 00:07:42,640 --> 00:07:46,000 Around so you didn't have the demand building in the term 141 00:07:46,000 --> 00:07:50,600 market and yet you had some people for whatever reason show 142 00:07:50,600 --> 00:07:53,320 up with material to sell. I mean, January began with a 143 00:07:53,320 --> 00:07:57,120 producer who's restarting an asset trying to sell 200,000 lbs 144 00:07:57,120 --> 00:08:02,720 in the market in a non fundamental discretionary market 145 00:08:02,960 --> 00:08:06,000 where utilities aren't focused. It's a dumb idea. 146 00:08:06,000 --> 00:08:09,000 It's a dumb idea every time. And and I don't know how many 147 00:08:09,000 --> 00:08:12,120 times we have to say it, but spot market will be under 148 00:08:12,120 --> 00:08:14,240 pressure. If there are those who have 149 00:08:14,240 --> 00:08:16,960 productive assets and they don't do the hard work of building a 150 00:08:16,960 --> 00:08:19,160 home for them. I have no problem buying in the 151 00:08:19,160 --> 00:08:23,600 market when when we show up to buy, there's a response. 152 00:08:23,720 --> 00:08:27,760 But what we do not do is play the role of buyer of last 153 00:08:27,760 --> 00:08:29,720 resort. If there's a producer out there 154 00:08:30,440 --> 00:08:33,559 and they haven't planned things accordingly or they decided that 155 00:08:33,559 --> 00:08:37,120 a spot strategy was going to be a really smart idea, you know, 156 00:08:37,120 --> 00:08:40,240 they'll often phone us and they'll say, hey, you know, I've 157 00:08:40,679 --> 00:08:44,360 got 200,000 lbs to sell. And, and if you don't buy it, 158 00:08:44,360 --> 00:08:45,760 I'm going to put it in the spot market. 159 00:08:45,920 --> 00:08:50,200 And I'll tell you our answer 100% of the time is put it in 160 00:08:50,200 --> 00:08:53,440 the spot market. Then you'll push down the price, 161 00:08:53,480 --> 00:08:56,640 you'll get a lower price for it. I might buy it at that lower 162 00:08:56,640 --> 00:09:00,240 price and when the market corrects back up, I'll take that 163 00:09:00,240 --> 00:09:03,240 trading margin. But if we start rewarding that 164 00:09:03,240 --> 00:09:04,880 kind of behaviour, it will continue. 165 00:09:05,680 --> 00:09:13,920 So, and the, but the mechanism behind Kamiko's revenue is, you 166 00:09:13,920 --> 00:09:17,160 know, you could sense why it gets a bit rolled up about this. 167 00:09:17,160 --> 00:09:20,800 So because from the, from the, the race star projects and my, 168 00:09:20,800 --> 00:09:25,440 and because he's, as with every other uranium executive around 169 00:09:25,440 --> 00:09:27,200 the world at the moment, every time they speak, they're talking 170 00:09:27,200 --> 00:09:31,360 about the structural supply deficit, like the price is going 171 00:09:31,360 --> 00:09:34,160 to do this. And like for, for the restart 172 00:09:35,040 --> 00:09:37,400 projects, like selling into the spot is like, because they 173 00:09:37,400 --> 00:09:39,240 believe that too. Everyone's believes it. 174 00:09:39,440 --> 00:09:42,760 So it's like, why would you contract out right now or 175 00:09:42,760 --> 00:09:46,280 contract a big chunk out and lock your price in? 176 00:09:46,280 --> 00:09:48,560 If you believe the price is going up, there's no point 177 00:09:48,920 --> 00:09:53,760 contracting it now unless you've got a, you know, a high, a high 178 00:09:53,760 --> 00:09:58,160 floor and market referenced pricing that you know follows 179 00:09:58,160 --> 00:10:00,080 the spot. If it does go up, like you, 180 00:10:00,520 --> 00:10:03,760 you're going to maintain your flexibility and, you know, sell 181 00:10:03,760 --> 00:10:05,880 bits into the spot saying, because you wouldn't think 182 00:10:05,880 --> 00:10:10,120 200,000 lbs would move the spot price too much. 183 00:10:10,120 --> 00:10:16,120 But it obviously, if people are, if the the spot price is falling 184 00:10:16,160 --> 00:10:19,600 and if like anyone selling into the spot market is putting more 185 00:10:19,600 --> 00:10:22,600 pressure on it, why is that piss chemical off so much? 186 00:10:22,920 --> 00:10:27,680 Have a look at this chart. This is how they're based on the 187 00:10:28,160 --> 00:10:31,560 old contracts that they've signed, like the market, and I 188 00:10:31,560 --> 00:10:33,760 assume they must be not all fixed. 189 00:10:34,200 --> 00:10:37,040 They're a majority of it is the market reference price, which 190 00:10:37,040 --> 00:10:40,480 means it'll it'll be in a range, but it's like they're 191 00:10:40,480 --> 00:10:43,880 effectively paid based on what the spot price is. 192 00:10:43,880 --> 00:10:47,720 So as much as they say the spot price is a like no one's 193 00:10:47,720 --> 00:10:52,640 interested in the spot market that what the spot price is is 194 00:10:52,640 --> 00:10:55,520 what Kamiko gets paid for in their contracts. 195 00:10:55,520 --> 00:11:00,800 So you can see here if the for 2025, if the spot price is 80, 196 00:11:00,800 --> 00:11:04,440 they get paid $61.00 a pound. If the spot price is 60, they 197 00:11:04,440 --> 00:11:07,280 get paid $55 a pound. So it. 198 00:11:07,880 --> 00:11:11,440 Impacts their top line. That that downward pressure is 199 00:11:11,600 --> 00:11:14,960 cost in the spot price is costing Gamiko money. 200 00:11:14,960 --> 00:11:19,680 So whether it's the more you'd say direct way of saying it 201 00:11:19,680 --> 00:11:23,080 don't sell into the spot market because you'll drive the price 202 00:11:23,080 --> 00:11:24,480 down and we make less money because. 203 00:11:24,640 --> 00:11:27,320 It effects their market referenced contract. 204 00:11:27,600 --> 00:11:29,720 Exactly. Yeah, OK. 205 00:11:29,760 --> 00:11:30,720 And and. Interesting. 206 00:11:30,720 --> 00:11:34,840 And because there is becoming a big pretty decent gap between So 207 00:11:34,840 --> 00:11:40,680 what the long term, long term price to the spot price now is 208 00:11:40,680 --> 00:11:43,000 like you know a $13 a pound difference. 209 00:11:43,360 --> 00:11:47,120 So there is a pretty big. Is that a historically big 210 00:11:47,200 --> 00:11:48,600 difference? Is it normally? 211 00:11:48,600 --> 00:11:51,200 Does it trade in a kind of band typically? 212 00:11:51,200 --> 00:11:53,920 I know, I know, like the previous, the way the market was 213 00:11:53,920 --> 00:11:58,120 previously set up back in the the previous days was that you 214 00:11:58,120 --> 00:12:02,320 know every the term term process where all the action is and then 215 00:12:02,320 --> 00:12:05,240 if you've got shit leftover, you'd have to throw it into the 216 00:12:05,240 --> 00:12:09,040 spot market. Hence the spot market was always 217 00:12:09,040 --> 00:12:13,880 below the term market. I'm not sure how much if it was 218 00:12:13,880 --> 00:12:19,240 this much, but yeah, if it that that's like the sort of 219 00:12:19,240 --> 00:12:22,360 equilibrium of how the market should operate. 220 00:12:22,920 --> 00:12:26,280 And that's where. So when you know, when last year 221 00:12:26,280 --> 00:12:29,880 when like spot price was over $100, the term price was oh, 222 00:12:29,880 --> 00:12:33,680 that was bloody that way. It was what, down in the 60s or 223 00:12:33,680 --> 00:12:34,840 70s or something? It's. 224 00:12:35,160 --> 00:12:36,520 Still playing catch up? Yeah. 225 00:12:36,520 --> 00:12:39,640 So that was just like the. So whether that happens again, 226 00:12:39,640 --> 00:12:42,200 who who knows. But the term price didn't follow 227 00:12:42,200 --> 00:12:45,000 the spot price up like it did. That was just a bit of short 228 00:12:45,000 --> 00:12:47,920 term mania. So yeah, yeah, I found found 229 00:12:47,920 --> 00:12:53,760 that very, very interesting. So and you can, you can see both 230 00:12:53,760 --> 00:12:55,600 sides. If the as I said, if the develop 231 00:12:55,800 --> 00:12:58,800 the new restarts are thinking it's going to go up, we're going 232 00:12:58,800 --> 00:13:01,840 to keep flexibility and the lot because as soon as you sell it, 233 00:13:01,840 --> 00:13:04,360 it's sold. But if you've still kept it, you 234 00:13:04,360 --> 00:13:07,480 need to sell a bit for cash flow into the spot to keep things 235 00:13:07,480 --> 00:13:10,680 going. The the longer you hold onto it, 236 00:13:10,680 --> 00:13:13,400 the closer you get into that thesis changing if it does. 237 00:13:13,520 --> 00:13:17,320 If it does, who bloody knows good and the way what else? 238 00:13:17,320 --> 00:13:19,720 Not sure if he was who's talking about. 239 00:13:19,720 --> 00:13:23,360 I don't know if he knew the actual company or not. 240 00:13:23,360 --> 00:13:27,000 But interesting comments around the 200,000 lbs that got put 241 00:13:27,000 --> 00:13:32,120 into the market by restart. Mine restart in January so on it 242 00:13:32,120 --> 00:13:37,200 because I know boss sold 200,000 lbs into spot in their last 243 00:13:37,200 --> 00:13:39,760 quarter and I think that was at 78 bucks a pound. 244 00:13:40,040 --> 00:13:42,280 So I think based on based on the quarterly numbers. 245 00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:44,960 So that ended up better than what the spot price is now. 246 00:13:45,800 --> 00:13:50,400 So unless it was them again in January or it could be, it could 247 00:13:50,400 --> 00:13:54,520 have been Paladin or Denison, like who who knows, But it's 248 00:13:54,520 --> 00:14:00,400 very, very direct at those people that are selling into the 249 00:14:00,400 --> 00:14:03,240 spot market cause hey, it's costing them money. 250 00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:07,840 So 'cause you look at their average realised price, Kamiko 251 00:14:07,840 --> 00:14:13,120 for last quarter was $60.00 a pound and look at what the I'll 252 00:14:13,120 --> 00:14:15,320 bring up the graph of the spot price since then. 253 00:14:15,640 --> 00:14:18,040 So their quarterly results are coming out. 254 00:14:18,040 --> 00:14:21,280 I think it's 20th of February for the December quarter. 255 00:14:21,320 --> 00:14:22,400 Couple weeks or so. Yeah. 256 00:14:22,400 --> 00:14:25,400 So based on that spot price performance, I dare say we will 257 00:14:25,400 --> 00:14:30,520 see Kamiko's realised price be in the 50's, the high 50s. 258 00:14:30,960 --> 00:14:35,240 So if the spot price is going down as much and assuming there, 259 00:14:35,240 --> 00:14:37,960 there's a good chunk of market reference to pricing in their 260 00:14:37,960 --> 00:14:40,840 contracts. So like so when I say market 261 00:14:40,840 --> 00:14:44,200 reference pricing, that's means you got a floor ceiling and it 262 00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:45,960 tracks the spot price in that band. 263 00:14:45,960 --> 00:14:49,360 If it goes below it doesn't matter, you get paid the floor. 264 00:14:49,360 --> 00:14:52,880 If it goes above the ceiling, doesn't matter, you get paid the 265 00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:56,400 ceiling. Whereas there's fixed contracts 266 00:14:56,400 --> 00:15:02,800 where they'll say they'll Ford sell at, you know, 7075 or 82 267 00:15:02,800 --> 00:15:05,080 and that's what you get paid for it for that that's fixed. 268 00:15:05,080 --> 00:15:07,880 But then you get hybrid ones as well where you got a bit of 269 00:15:07,880 --> 00:15:10,400 market reference bitter fixed. And then there's obviously 270 00:15:10,400 --> 00:15:13,720 multiple contracts that's for for different bits of pounds. 271 00:15:13,720 --> 00:15:17,080 So it's like a freaking, it's a bloody maze, but there. 272 00:15:17,160 --> 00:15:19,200 Yeah, that's the difference between market reference and 273 00:15:19,200 --> 00:15:20,280 fixed. OK, cool. 274 00:15:20,280 --> 00:15:23,720 So yes, we'll that'll be very interesting to see because I 275 00:15:23,720 --> 00:15:28,280 think Kameka will be feeling the pinch because you know there as 276 00:15:28,520 --> 00:15:33,080 you can see, it looks like the Westinghouse division runs out 277 00:15:33,120 --> 00:15:37,160 of net loss at the moment. Obviously a lot of capital going 278 00:15:37,160 --> 00:15:42,640 into that, you know, the uranium, the production save and 279 00:15:42,640 --> 00:15:45,680 that's where they're, you know where their profit is coming 280 00:15:45,680 --> 00:15:49,400 from. So that is and if it's market 281 00:15:49,400 --> 00:15:52,520 reference and they got a lot of years until they really get rid 282 00:15:52,520 --> 00:15:54,960 of those old contracts and start getting the benefit of the new 283 00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:57,120 ones. As you can see by 2028, even if 284 00:15:57,120 --> 00:16:01,160 the spot price is 120, they're gonna get paid 77 a pound. 285 00:16:02,240 --> 00:16:04,320 That's these are predicted prices. 286 00:16:04,320 --> 00:16:07,520 That is not the exact one, but that's their sort of they update 287 00:16:07,520 --> 00:16:10,600 that every quarter. OK, there you go. 288 00:16:10,600 --> 00:16:14,000 God bit of bloody. Are you feeling the yellow cake 289 00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:15,680 in your GC? I'm feeling it. 290 00:16:15,960 --> 00:16:17,880 Have you got any at the moment? No you don't. 291 00:16:18,120 --> 00:16:19,960 Any in the GCETF. No, no. 292 00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:22,880 Oh no. I've ain't got an explorer. 293 00:16:22,880 --> 00:16:26,440 But nothing, nothing bloody. I'm I'm, I'm still passionate 294 00:16:26,440 --> 00:16:29,040 about it, but still interesting. I feel the passion. 295 00:16:29,040 --> 00:16:30,280 Oh, I. Love it. 296 00:16:30,280 --> 00:16:32,680 Now here's the another next snippet I wanna play. 297 00:16:32,680 --> 00:16:35,720 I found this one. This was Now these are 298 00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:38,520 hypotheticals. There's no names mentioned here 299 00:16:38,720 --> 00:16:41,680 strategically, but we're going to do some hypotheticals. 300 00:16:41,920 --> 00:16:43,520 Let's say who you think he's talking about. 301 00:16:44,160 --> 00:16:48,440 Right now, I don't see anything out there in the development 302 00:16:48,440 --> 00:16:51,560 phase that we could acquire that makes any sense at all. 303 00:16:52,160 --> 00:16:55,840 So we just look at our portfolio different. 304 00:16:56,120 --> 00:16:58,360 We know where our pounds are going to come from. 305 00:16:58,720 --> 00:17:01,480 We're open to a whole bunch of different models. 306 00:17:01,920 --> 00:17:05,440 We just see a bunch of assets out there that are not coming on 307 00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:08,000 that time frame, They're not coming on that schedule. 308 00:17:08,359 --> 00:17:12,720 There's a lot of hurt coming to those investors and they're, you 309 00:17:12,720 --> 00:17:15,480 know, at, at that point our phone might ring because someone 310 00:17:15,480 --> 00:17:18,800 might say, hey, maybe we should call the only guys who actually 311 00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:23,599 mine in the Athabaska Basin. Look, I, I, I, I get the game. 312 00:17:24,760 --> 00:17:28,240 You know, you, you've got to distinguish yourself somehow 313 00:17:28,920 --> 00:17:30,640 from a bunch of others. And, and generally 314 00:17:30,640 --> 00:17:36,040 distinguishing, distinguishing oneself requires all sorts of 315 00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:39,960 inflated adjectives, world class, elite, all of these 316 00:17:39,960 --> 00:17:42,440 adjectives that you know, somebody who's never done it 317 00:17:42,440 --> 00:17:44,520 before probably shouldn't be using. 318 00:17:45,400 --> 00:17:47,360 That's one way to distinguish yourself. 319 00:17:48,600 --> 00:17:51,120 But the other way is just to say you're going to do it better 320 00:17:51,120 --> 00:17:53,280 than anybody's ever done it in history. 321 00:17:54,160 --> 00:17:58,040 And The thing is we don't have to take those views what, what 322 00:17:58,040 --> 00:18:00,720 we simply do. And, and, and I, I mean this in, 323 00:18:00,760 --> 00:18:03,880 in a very modest sense, we simply apply our own experience. 324 00:18:04,720 --> 00:18:08,320 We apply our own experience how long it takes to get licenses 325 00:18:08,320 --> 00:18:10,600 and permits. And we apply our own experience 326 00:18:11,040 --> 00:18:14,160 how long it takes to build a Greenfield mine because we've 327 00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:17,040 done the last couple of Greenfield mines in the 328 00:18:17,040 --> 00:18:21,320 Athabaska Basin and, and to build a Greenfield mill and, and 329 00:18:21,320 --> 00:18:23,600 to revitalize a mill. And, and when people are 330 00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:26,160 proposing, they're building, they're going to build a 331 00:18:26,160 --> 00:18:30,840 Greenfield mill, you know, the same size as McLean Lake, you 332 00:18:30,840 --> 00:18:35,440 know, almost the same size as, sorry, the same size as Key 333 00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:37,400 Lake, almost the same size as McLean Lake. 334 00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:44,320 And they're going to do it for 1/3 of the mine of the mills 335 00:18:45,000 --> 00:18:46,600 sustaining and replacement capital. 336 00:18:46,600 --> 00:18:51,480 Like it's just it, it begs belief, but I, and this is just 337 00:18:51,480 --> 00:18:54,280 an empirical problem. This will be solved by evidence. 338 00:18:54,960 --> 00:18:58,960 And, and our view is there's a lot of hyper promotion and we 339 00:18:58,960 --> 00:19:02,360 understand why. We understand why, but we don't 340 00:19:02,360 --> 00:19:04,480 get caught up in it. We don't have to get caught up 341 00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:06,720 in it. Yeah, right. 342 00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:12,880 It is a pretty Now you could say, let's say hypothetically he 343 00:19:12,880 --> 00:19:17,120 was talking about next Gen. They're Athabasca Basin 344 00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:20,320 neighbor. Well, yeah, like sort of 345 00:19:20,320 --> 00:19:23,240 neighbor on the other side, on the other side, the Athabasca, 346 00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:26,240 like just hypothetically it's fair. 347 00:19:26,480 --> 00:19:29,920 Like we're and especially talking about the inflated 348 00:19:29,920 --> 00:19:33,160 adjectives shouldn't be used by people that haven't done it 349 00:19:33,160 --> 00:19:36,600 before. So there's a lot of reference to 350 00:19:36,600 --> 00:19:40,200 yeah, experience and having done it before and and and those 351 00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:44,400 sorts of phrases. I think, I think fascinating. 352 00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:45,800 Yeah. I think you wouldn't. 353 00:19:45,800 --> 00:19:48,720 You wouldn't think if he was hypothetically talking about 354 00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:51,880 next Gen. they wouldn't be. They don't look like they'd be 355 00:19:51,880 --> 00:19:53,920 doing a deal right now, put it that way. 356 00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:57,200 Because you don't. You don't really do a deal with 357 00:19:57,200 --> 00:19:59,000 someone that's hanging shit on you. 358 00:20:00,440 --> 00:20:03,280 I can't, cannot see that happening anytime soon. 359 00:20:03,280 --> 00:20:05,840 They're and they're, you know, they're honing in on the 360 00:20:05,840 --> 00:20:11,720 promotion, the wishful thinking on CapEx spend and the timeline. 361 00:20:13,240 --> 00:20:17,840 So maybe they would look at it cheaper in the future, which was 362 00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:21,160 which he also outlined that they, you know, look at value, 363 00:20:21,880 --> 00:20:26,680 they are the logical owner of an asset like that being as the O 364 00:20:27,120 --> 00:20:29,800 the OG uranium miner in the Athabasca Basin. 365 00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:34,520 But you know, I what did you take from that GC? 366 00:20:34,680 --> 00:20:39,520 Yeah, no, I think, well, he didn't mention names as as I 367 00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:42,560 think it was. It's all hot, very pretty 368 00:20:43,040 --> 00:20:47,600 reasonable to sort of infer from those comments or who he was 369 00:20:47,600 --> 00:20:50,600 talking about. But you know, there are, I mean, 370 00:20:50,600 --> 00:20:52,640 they're, they're in the they're in the same region. 371 00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:58,680 It does sort of make sense, but it's, it's, it's like a lot of 372 00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:01,920 other development players in other commodities as well where, 373 00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:07,680 you know, the, the tried and tested sort of producer sort of 374 00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:10,360 sees there's interesting, you know, development players come 375 00:21:10,360 --> 00:21:13,120 online, perhaps they have a bit of difficulty with, you know, 376 00:21:13,120 --> 00:21:15,680 ramp up or development, things like that. 377 00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:18,120 And that's where that value play comes in and they can sort of 378 00:21:18,120 --> 00:21:21,040 collect them should they choose to at at that point. 379 00:21:21,040 --> 00:21:24,360 So that doesn't really surprise me. 380 00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:27,440 No. And you look at look at value in 381 00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:32,120 terms of OK, BHP paid Canadian 4 1/2 billion for FILO. 382 00:21:32,680 --> 00:21:36,080 That's and that's, you know, long, long life, lot of 383 00:21:36,080 --> 00:21:39,960 opportunity there. You know, next Gen. has that at 384 00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:41,640 the moment based on what it's proven up. 385 00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:45,120 It's got that seven years of high grade that seven years of 386 00:21:45,120 --> 00:21:48,440 £30 million. But after that it's not, I think 387 00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:50,840 there's a lot more to be proven up and a lot more like they 388 00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:54,400 won't, they don't sustain that level for a long time. 389 00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:57,560 You know, their market cap at the moment, what is it, 5 and a 390 00:21:57,560 --> 00:22:03,960 bit Canadian billion. So you just cannot see, you just 391 00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:08,160 can't really see anyone really coughing up right now 7810 392 00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:10,840 billion Canadian like because it's you know, it's not at 393 00:22:10,840 --> 00:22:13,880 record highs at the moment, but it'd need a bloody good premium 394 00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:17,560 I think to be to be taken out. I just cannot see that 395 00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:21,520 happening, especially, you know, approval is coming up possibly 396 00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:25,160 this quarter, maybe like looks like the final administrative 397 00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:29,800 part for the approval is just what's needed like the leg works 398 00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:32,160 being done there. So that's going to be a big a 399 00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:34,440 big catalyst for them. And you would think logically 400 00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:38,000 that you'd think that would drive the price higher, but you 401 00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:42,480 know, they're sitting at near all time highs with this. 402 00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:46,160 You know, even though the the term prices increase, the spot 403 00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:50,120 price has decreased with which is a is a sentiment thing, but 404 00:22:50,120 --> 00:22:52,720 everything is still bullish. But you know, you know, they 405 00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:54,760 might have to pay bloody 10 billion to take them out. 406 00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:58,480 Which I don't still have the CapEx to spend as well to build 407 00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:00,400 the thing too. Yeah, yeah, which I think 408 00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:02,560 they've got it Canadian two and a bit. 409 00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:04,960 So Chuck a heap a bloody Mayo on the top of that. 410 00:23:05,360 --> 00:23:08,200 But I reckon post approval there could be. 411 00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:10,200 But you you could throw a frigging curve. 412 00:23:10,200 --> 00:23:14,040 They next Gen. might throw a curveball out and not sit there 413 00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:16,600 And what? Well, look at what's happened 414 00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:21,880 with Paladin fishing. So fission is it's not arrow 415 00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:24,000 equivalent, but it's, you know, it's next door. 416 00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:26,760 It's a still a decent uranium deposit. 417 00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:30,640 Paladin are the they got the restart project in Langar 418 00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:32,600 Heinrich. They've merged them together. 419 00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:34,560 You know, the whole theory behind. 420 00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:38,680 Yeah, well, you know, obviously the more more flows when you're 421 00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:41,320 bigger JC. But you know, I think it worked 422 00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:44,280 out. It was it 76, I think percent 423 00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:50,160 Paladin, 24% fission. Use the pending cash flows from 424 00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:54,280 Lang Heinrich to help assist fund fission in the future. 425 00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:58,240 Fund the development of the PLS. Maybe next Gen. could do the 426 00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:00,400 same. Next Gen. like especially when 427 00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:04,320 they're at bloody, you know, near all time highs in and 428 00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:06,600 there's, you know, post approval that could go high. 429 00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:09,000 This script is pretty bloody valuable. 430 00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:11,200 They reckon they'd be the acquirer. 431 00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:15,360 Well no they no I. I reckon next Gen. 432 00:24:15,360 --> 00:24:18,360 Might look to use to do something with their script if 433 00:24:18,360 --> 00:24:19,920 it's that. Yeah, that's what I mean, yeah. 434 00:24:20,360 --> 00:24:22,840 Or what if what's the equivalent of Paladin? 435 00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:25,520 There's not many producers around. 436 00:24:25,600 --> 00:24:30,960 No boss. He's from SA. 437 00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:32,800 He's went to uni in South Australia. 438 00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:34,840 I think he's born in Melbourne, Lee, but he's from South 439 00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:36,720 Australia. Honeymoon's in South Australia. 440 00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:41,240 If you're it's it's sort of the same theory. 441 00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:45,600 Use a bit of the it's not gonna it's probably only a small chunk 442 00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:49,640 of it, but pending the future cash flows of honeymoon can help 443 00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:55,640 assist the development of arrow. It's not going to wouldn't cover 444 00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:57,600 the bloody whole thing, but it sure as hell they. 445 00:24:57,720 --> 00:25:01,240 Subsidise it a bit. They've bloody they've just 446 00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:04,640 rebuild a plant in honeymoon. So you actually bring in a lot 447 00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:07,800 of a bit of operational people that have actually, you know, 448 00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:10,920 they've they didn't a lot of a lot of the plant was there, but 449 00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:13,680 they did convert it from solvent extraction plan into an IX 450 00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:15,800 plant. A lot of similarities in the 451 00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:18,880 processing. Like you look at the flow sheet 452 00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:23,040 for next Gen., like there's a whole leaching phase, which is, 453 00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:26,640 you know, adding sulfuric acid, hydrogen per peroxide, the 454 00:25:27,240 --> 00:25:32,280 ferric like the oxidizing agents to leach the uranium out exactly 455 00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:35,960 the same as what gets flushed through the paleo channel at an 456 00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:38,520 ISR project. So I think they do solve an 457 00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:42,400 extraction after that, which is, you know, the kerosene version 458 00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:46,000 instead of ion exchange. So, but like there's you know, 459 00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:50,160 they've got the operational side that they could then transfer 460 00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:53,520 over to help build the arrow projects. 461 00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:59,960 That's sort of answers grants hypothetical challenges posing 462 00:25:59,960 --> 00:26:01,720 that they haven't built a mill before. 463 00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:06,040 And I think the actual if they if you did join them together, 464 00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:10,800 the dilution would be to next Gen. will be heaps less than it 465 00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:14,560 was to Paladin because I think what are their relative market 466 00:26:14,560 --> 00:26:16,160 caps? I think next gen's market caps 467 00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:17,640 about 6 bill Aussie at the moment. 468 00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:22,280 Boss is 1.35 S. The pro forma would be bloody at 469 00:26:22,280 --> 00:26:26,200 a minimum 8020 like so it wouldn't actually be as 470 00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:29,280 dilutive. I don't know but. 471 00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:34,520 Do you think mining in in processing in the Athabaska at a 472 00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:41,080 scale that's much bigger compared to Adelaide at a 473 00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:45,080 smaller scale I mean? All right, tight, the mining's 474 00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:47,720 you'd need a whole new mining team like if you were gonna do 475 00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:51,160 the actual that's the the mining side is one thing, like the 476 00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:53,560 processing's one thing. That's it. 477 00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:57,120 The only expertise you get to be for the processing of it, the 478 00:26:57,120 --> 00:27:01,440 whole the mining of it. That is like a that is the 479 00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:03,960 biggest challenge there, especially like the the whole 480 00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:08,880 tilings, the tiling side, like the underground backfill side, 481 00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:13,240 like the trying to bloody that'd be freezing all like to try and 482 00:27:13,360 --> 00:27:17,600 like all or automated mining like at least you'd you'd sort 483 00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:19,080 that you'd be ticking off the plant. 484 00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:23,200 But at the moment they've got, I don't know what expertise 485 00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:25,840 they've got in terms of you know what, they should take over an 486 00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:27,360 underground mining company as well. 487 00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:28,880 Yeah, what? What's if they can help? 488 00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:31,680 If they could get boss for the plant and then take over, 489 00:27:31,720 --> 00:27:35,040 They've got friggin, you know, script will be worth bloody 490 00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:36,480 shit. Like script will be high. 491 00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:38,880 They might as well take over. How could they take over in 492 00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:41,000 Canada? Might as well just get Newmont 493 00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:42,200 while you're at it. Yeah, just. 494 00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:48,960 'Cause I just wonder, like how much experience and sort of cash 495 00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:54,640 flow you can, like how much of that is really gonna help, you 496 00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:57,600 know, in this hypothetical, you know, how much, you know, for 497 00:27:57,600 --> 00:28:00,400 how much, you know, say if they were doing it through, you know, 498 00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:02,840 using their script, how much dilution they'd have to do to 499 00:28:02,840 --> 00:28:06,720 sort of get some experience and get some cash flow to subsidise 500 00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:08,280 the development. I don't know. 501 00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:12,480 Yeah, I think the the mining big job mining outweighs well see 502 00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:15,360 what are they gonna do? They're like either gonna if 503 00:28:15,360 --> 00:28:19,560 not, if they're if they remain too highly valued and no like 504 00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:23,240 and no one's going to buy them at because they're so, so 505 00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:26,200 expensive. Like, yeah, the value is there 506 00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:29,840 for the uranium unless like a, you know, an Orano comes along 507 00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:34,560 or like someone really takes a big a big swing at it or buys a 508 00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:36,600 a part of the project. I'm not sure. 509 00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:40,160 But it's like if no one's going to buy them like that is such a 510 00:28:40,440 --> 00:28:43,720 such a big feat to take on. Like they nearly need to, they 511 00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:46,560 need to, that's a lot of people to recruit there unless they 512 00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:48,720 start pin. Maybe after that YouTube 513 00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:50,720 interview, they'll start recruiting all the Kamiko 514 00:28:50,720 --> 00:28:52,480 people. Well, this will get you back. 515 00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:53,880 We'll start pinching all your people. 516 00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:57,680 But it's it's getting the, you know, the technical experience, 517 00:28:57,680 --> 00:29:00,760 but then you need the local experience as yeah, I think my 518 00:29:00,760 --> 00:29:07,680 hypothetical is, I reckon 10 to 15% of the what's needed, it's 519 00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:12,080 the local mining and bloody. Permitting and the. 520 00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:15,880 Whole region that just the just trying to figure out how to 521 00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:21,840 bloody build something in -40° like it is a big feat so 522 00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:25,200 absolutely anyway it's been recorded I. 523 00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:28,760 Check it on the dartboard. Happens of hey, you never know, 524 00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:32,400 it's just it might solve just a just processing and a bit of 525 00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:33,960 cash. Why not? 526 00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:35,440 Why not? Why not? 527 00:29:36,080 --> 00:29:39,560 I don't know. All right, Well, yeah, I don't. 528 00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:41,720 It's just after hearing that I don't think chemical are going 529 00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:43,960 to take them. Not just yet, at least. 530 00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:47,440 Anyway, it doesn't seem like. It but then when like in terms 531 00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:50,880 of waiting for value, like after, you know, construction 532 00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:52,840 ramp up and that that could be bloody. 533 00:29:53,160 --> 00:29:53,840 Years away. Oh. 534 00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:58,120 That could be like 20-30. One, but it doesn't sound like 535 00:29:58,120 --> 00:29:59,680 they're in a particular rush though. 536 00:30:00,160 --> 00:30:05,200 Nah and like they've got to they won't know what ramp up is until 537 00:30:05,720 --> 00:30:11,040 they're producing, which is like after mining down 600 odd metres 538 00:30:11,400 --> 00:30:15,800 underground with shafts need all the, you know, the backfill 539 00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:20,240 areas in place. Like it is a huge, huge project 540 00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:24,200 to get down there. So oh God, I don't even know if 541 00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:28,240 there will even be a bloody podcast by the time by the time 542 00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:30,800 that's bloody producer. Who knows, we might all be on to 543 00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:33,360 something else by then, who knows, who knows. 544 00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:37,240 So we'll we will wait and see. Absolutely. 545 00:30:37,360 --> 00:30:43,440 Oh, just anyway, buddy, although the one the one difference, but 546 00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:47,680 well, the one thing that won't apply between friggin ISR and 547 00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:51,840 because it's Hard Rock over there is like like as the 548 00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:53,960 shafts. You got to pay all the shafts 549 00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:56,600 like the the power is a lot more of a cost. 550 00:30:56,600 --> 00:30:59,560 You got to between the shafts, the crushes, the bloody jumbos 551 00:30:59,560 --> 00:31:01,720 underground, the ventilation ventilation will be huge. 552 00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:07,200 Just bloody power everywhere. Global independent power 553 00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:10,040 producer, cross boundary energy. I think they should be on the 554 00:31:10,040 --> 00:31:10,800 ticket. JC. 555 00:31:10,800 --> 00:31:13,920 Oh absolutely. Back for another round. 556 00:31:13,920 --> 00:31:16,360 I think they might might go to the Athabaska to throw in a 557 00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:19,400 quote. Welcome back CBE, Get a quote to 558 00:31:19,400 --> 00:31:22,200 the Athabaska. Can you imagine after this 559 00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:27,080 episode if if next Gen. takeover boss and CBE do the power plant 560 00:31:27,080 --> 00:31:29,040 for next Gen. Like how good is that? 561 00:31:29,160 --> 00:31:32,800 How good would I look? I look like a friggin genius. 562 00:31:33,280 --> 00:31:37,080 Oh, but trusted name in international power GC and 563 00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:40,320 they're now in Australia. They were last year too when 564 00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:43,480 we're talking about them. So right you could you could say 565 00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:48,040 mine sites are powered by CBE, but CBE Australia is powered by 566 00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:50,000 Tim Taylor. I love it. 567 00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:53,000 Hybrid power stations are their jam. 568 00:31:53,000 --> 00:31:55,520 Build, own and operate. Give them a buzz. 569 00:31:55,560 --> 00:32:02,320 Go CBE, right OGC, let's head to Coba for you know, it's only 570 00:32:02,320 --> 00:32:04,360 just clicked to me why they're called Poly metals. 571 00:32:04,640 --> 00:32:06,600 Why's that? Well, it's like, you know. 572 00:32:06,880 --> 00:32:09,280 Multiple metals. LED zinc lights all. 573 00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:12,760 It's in the name, isn't it? Silver lights. 574 00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:14,840 There you go. What? 575 00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:17,800 A great what a great find today. Oh. 576 00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:21,360 Bloody hell. Anyway, just take it away. 577 00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:24,280 Alrighty. So just wanted to touch on this 578 00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:28,680 one today because so this is a Poly metals capital raise $35 579 00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:31,440 million. It had a bit of an unusual start 580 00:32:31,440 --> 00:32:35,400 to launching it's capital raise the other day, but also exciting 581 00:32:35,400 --> 00:32:39,400 is we'll hopefully be seeing another Aussie base metals 582 00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:45,160 restart getting restarted, restarted next quarter. 583 00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:48,000 And they're mining Poly metals. Yeah, and that's it. 584 00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:52,680 So as I mentioned before, Poly Metals raised 35,000,000 bucks 585 00:32:52,680 --> 00:32:55,760 at $0.80 a share to progress their endeavour, restart 586 00:32:55,760 --> 00:32:57,880 activities and accelerate exploration. 587 00:32:57,880 --> 00:33:01,680 So it was done at reasonably tight discounts to last close 588 00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:05,200 in, in V WAP. They also launched a 3.2 million 589 00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:09,880 share purchase plan SPP. They raised Quantum's about 22% 590 00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:13,800 of their their current market market caps of around 160 591 00:33:13,800 --> 00:33:17,560 million early today. So what are they sort of getting 592 00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:19,160 into the details on the use of funds here? 593 00:33:19,160 --> 00:33:23,360 So if you look at slide six of their investor presser, it says 594 00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:26,520 35,000,000 institutional placement to accelerate near 595 00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:31,000 mine and regional exploration and in just across from it in 596 00:33:31,000 --> 00:33:33,840 slightly smaller text funds will also provide additional working 597 00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:37,040 capital as endeavour transitions into production. 598 00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:40,240 So yes, there are funds certainly going to exploration, 599 00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:44,880 but if you flick a few slides further down to slide 12, you 600 00:33:44,880 --> 00:33:48,040 can see actually the majority of those funds are going to 601 00:33:49,840 --> 00:33:54,040 basically working capital, you know balance sheet strength as 602 00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:57,680 they call it. So, so it's probably probably a 603 00:33:57,680 --> 00:34:00,800 bit the other way around, but you can see there between the 604 00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:05,240 equity raising proceeds their their cash at 31 December and 605 00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:09,120 some undrawn financing facilities that'll pretty much 606 00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:12,239 look after the remaining restart capital They've got for 607 00:34:12,239 --> 00:34:17,520 Endeavour that out of 22,000,000 dollars, $10 million worth of 608 00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:20,600 near mine and regional exploration work and then the 34 609 00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:23,400 million out of corporate general working cap and and offer costs. 610 00:34:23,400 --> 00:34:29,040 So they reckon that remaining CapEx component, that 22 mil is 611 00:34:29,040 --> 00:34:33,159 capable of being funded from basically the rest of their 612 00:34:33,159 --> 00:34:35,960 prepayment facility from Ocean Partners. 613 00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:39,440 So that was US 20 mil. They drew down US 5 mil of that 614 00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:42,840 in December. So they got US15 of that to go. 615 00:34:44,400 --> 00:34:48,400 So they post all of this raise, they'll end up with a pro forma 616 00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:51,840 cash position of 37 million and they've still got, you know, 617 00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:54,440 undrawn debt facilities around 26,000,000. 618 00:34:54,639 --> 00:34:58,280 So the balance sheet must have been running pretty tight if the 619 00:34:58,280 --> 00:35:02,200 pro forma cash is 37 after raising sort of gross proceeds 620 00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:06,640 of of 35. But they've certainly done well 621 00:35:06,640 --> 00:35:11,040 to raise, you know, predominantly for balance sheet 622 00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:15,880 strength, you know purposes at a, at a decent issue price of 623 00:35:15,960 --> 00:35:18,000 $0.80 a share. I mean, there, if you look at 624 00:35:18,000 --> 00:35:21,680 the share price graph here, you know, that's sort of, you know, 625 00:35:21,680 --> 00:35:23,560 12 month high dollar and one cent. 626 00:35:24,080 --> 00:35:27,600 It was only sub $0.40 only a few months ago really in in 627 00:35:27,600 --> 00:35:28,600 September. Oh, awesome. 628 00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:29,480 RIP. That's whatever. 629 00:35:29,480 --> 00:35:32,960 Yeah. But going back to sort of the 630 00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:37,280 start of the capital raise, bit of a bumpy start to launching 631 00:35:37,280 --> 00:35:40,280 it. So check out the timestamp of 632 00:35:40,280 --> 00:35:45,880 this Street Talk article at 1:09 last week on the 6th of February 633 00:35:46,280 --> 00:35:51,080 and check out the sort of the ASICS announcements for Poly 634 00:35:51,080 --> 00:35:53,320 metals. You can see very promptly at 635 00:35:53,600 --> 00:35:59,080 1:55 a pause and trading's come out and then soon after a a 636 00:35:59,080 --> 00:36:01,520 trading halt. So it's not not the most ideal 637 00:36:01,520 --> 00:36:04,520 way to launch a capital raiser, but it looks like they 638 00:36:04,560 --> 00:36:06,960 ultimately got it across the line. 639 00:36:07,000 --> 00:36:10,880 So that's, that's Sydney, that's in the market time, yeah. 640 00:36:11,200 --> 00:36:14,280 That's so that's over east time. Over East time, yeah, that's. 641 00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:19,640 Right, Jesus Christ. And that's oh. 642 00:36:20,120 --> 00:36:24,560 Which look, it's it's yeah, sometimes can happen, but yeah, 643 00:36:24,560 --> 00:36:26,400 they'll obviously got it away anyway. 644 00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:31,520 Just bloody it's, I don't know. I don't know how I feel about 645 00:36:32,560 --> 00:36:35,000 them putting articles out during market hours. 646 00:36:35,080 --> 00:36:37,040 Yeah, it's if. They're not in trading out yet. 647 00:36:37,040 --> 00:36:40,320 That doesn't sit right with me. Yeah, it's certainly not ideal. 648 00:36:40,440 --> 00:36:44,000 That can cost people cash. So I think, 'cause I think the 649 00:36:44,000 --> 00:36:47,160 share price did trade down a a little bit once they come out, 650 00:36:47,160 --> 00:36:50,000 but because of how sort of reasonably quickly the pause in 651 00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:51,840 shaded come through sort of stopped that. 652 00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:54,320 Reasonably quickly. I could sell a few shares in 653 00:36:54,320 --> 00:36:58,000 bloody 46 minutes. Yeah, yeah. 654 00:36:59,000 --> 00:37:02,680 Yes, anyway. So bit of background on on Poly 655 00:37:02,680 --> 00:37:05,800 metals and the Endeavour mines. So like I mentioned before, 656 00:37:05,800 --> 00:37:09,600 about 160 million market cap company, they're restarting the 657 00:37:09,600 --> 00:37:14,160 Endeavour's silver zinc mine in, in the Coba that's in in NSW. 658 00:37:14,400 --> 00:37:17,400 So they actually completed the acquisition of the asset and and 659 00:37:17,840 --> 00:37:20,080 a completed a mine plan for it last August. 660 00:37:21,640 --> 00:37:25,440 So just flash up a a slide of so the outcomes of that so 661 00:37:25,440 --> 00:37:31,720 producing 10.6 million ounces of payable silver, 260,000 tonnes 662 00:37:31,720 --> 00:37:35,440 of papal zinc and 90,000 tonnes of payable LED over an initial 663 00:37:35,520 --> 00:37:38,800 10 year mine life. So they're like you could say 664 00:37:38,800 --> 00:37:42,120 that they're going to be zinc neutral like 'cause you think of 665 00:37:42,120 --> 00:37:44,560 the zinc they're mining, 'cause they're gonna be jam and Sandvik 666 00:37:44,560 --> 00:37:49,000 ground support in which is zinc coated for the galvanizing. 667 00:37:49,720 --> 00:37:52,320 And then they're gonna every bolt they put in, they're 668 00:37:52,320 --> 00:37:54,240 producing the zinc. So they're going to, they're 669 00:37:54,240 --> 00:38:00,240 going to be a net, a net Zinc 0 operation as I said. 670 00:38:00,240 --> 00:38:02,560 A net 0 zinc producer. Net 0 zinc. 671 00:38:02,600 --> 00:38:06,360 It's like they're going to be producing green zinc like. 672 00:38:06,480 --> 00:38:10,840 That is such a useful statistic that I I didn't need. 673 00:38:10,880 --> 00:38:13,800 No, I needed. Some of the greatest zinc mines, 674 00:38:13,800 --> 00:38:16,920 like you know, George Fisher or anyway anywhere else that 675 00:38:16,920 --> 00:38:20,600 produces zinc, Woodlawn, they're going to be producing green 676 00:38:20,600 --> 00:38:22,360 zinc. It's going to be because they're 677 00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:25,000 going to be jamming in Sandvik ground support, the only ground 678 00:38:25,000 --> 00:38:28,520 support you choose to jam in, and you're going to be sending 679 00:38:28,520 --> 00:38:31,880 Sandvik the zinc as well. So it's just everyone. 680 00:38:31,880 --> 00:38:34,800 Sandvik's winning. Poly Metals is winning. 681 00:38:35,000 --> 00:38:37,480 Everyone's winning. It's like a complete circle life 682 00:38:37,480 --> 00:38:40,000 cycle of zinc. Is it go zinc? 683 00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:43,160 Who said zinc? Zinc if you you just need to 684 00:38:43,160 --> 00:38:46,400 change the way you think about zinc, just think about Sambic 685 00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:50,360 ground support. That was I like the note in the 686 00:38:50,360 --> 00:38:51,920 show notes, the surprise Sandvik ad. 687 00:38:51,920 --> 00:38:55,360 That was a surprise. I like the element of surprise 688 00:38:55,360 --> 00:38:57,000 with the ad. Stand it was good fun it. 689 00:38:57,000 --> 00:38:59,200 Just means I don't have to write them out, I'll just say 690 00:38:59,200 --> 00:39:00,840 whatever. Comes up here it's. 691 00:39:01,320 --> 00:39:03,120 All good. Oh anyway, sorry to interrupt. 692 00:39:03,280 --> 00:39:06,120 No, you're good. And then so, yeah, so they'll, 693 00:39:06,200 --> 00:39:13,120 they'll generate 609,000,000 predex free cash flow and a $414 694 00:39:13,160 --> 00:39:18,280 million pretax MPV 8 from that. And they're just looking across 695 00:39:18,280 --> 00:39:23,000 the time on sort of they started to see that big share price run 696 00:39:23,000 --> 00:39:25,040 sort of late September, early October. 697 00:39:25,040 --> 00:39:30,920 So they had a had a big hit at at Endeavour 67 metres at 517g 698 00:39:30,920 --> 00:39:34,840 per tonne silver equivalent. Then sort of shortly after that 699 00:39:34,840 --> 00:39:38,360 completed the project finance, which we mentioned earlier US 20 700 00:39:38,360 --> 00:39:40,600 million prepaid from Ocean Partners. 701 00:39:41,400 --> 00:39:45,360 I actually love their, their project ramp up updates. 702 00:39:45,360 --> 00:39:50,680 They, they, they've got the whole like mega trend really 703 00:39:50,680 --> 00:39:53,360 leading into it. They're going for a mega make 704 00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:57,760 endeavour great again, really in the whole restart and mega 705 00:39:57,760 --> 00:40:01,640 themes. So I love that in their in their 706 00:40:01,640 --> 00:40:05,040 last ramp up progress update early this month, I said, you 707 00:40:05,040 --> 00:40:07,960 know, surf and underground works will progress in a plan, mobile 708 00:40:07,960 --> 00:40:10,440 fleet deliveries continuing, recruiting ongoing. 709 00:40:11,160 --> 00:40:13,640 And they're sort of working on re establishing access to the 710 00:40:14,000 --> 00:40:19,320 high grade silver Upper North Road and they're targeting first 711 00:40:19,320 --> 00:40:25,080 silver and zinc production in April 2025 with first cashless 712 00:40:26,120 --> 00:40:29,440 month after. But yeah, you know the yeah, 713 00:40:29,440 --> 00:40:33,800 like I said, it's pretty much up to 100% from last September. 714 00:40:34,240 --> 00:40:37,600 Yeah, but the commodity prices have gone up a bit as well too. 715 00:40:37,600 --> 00:40:40,800 You know, silver's up 42% in the last 12 months. 716 00:40:40,800 --> 00:40:44,440 It's about 32 bucks an ounce. US at the minute, zinc, even 717 00:40:44,440 --> 00:40:47,560 zinc's gone up boring old zinc. So you know gone up about 20% 718 00:40:47,560 --> 00:40:51,480 last 12 months about in the two eights USA tonne at at the 719 00:40:51,480 --> 00:40:56,440 minute Mac copper or as as previously known Metals 720 00:40:56,440 --> 00:41:01,960 Acquisition Corp actually has a shareholding in Poly Metals as 721 00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:03,480 well. So. 722 00:41:04,320 --> 00:41:07,880 Quite logical, yeah. So logical 1, you don't need 723 00:41:07,880 --> 00:41:10,440 geography doesn't apply in M&A these days. 724 00:41:10,440 --> 00:41:13,160 Don't worry about geographical synergies. 725 00:41:13,160 --> 00:41:17,120 We're doing bloody, just go out Paladin Vision next Gen. boss 726 00:41:17,120 --> 00:41:20,200 Westgold Korora. Don't worry about geography. 727 00:41:20,480 --> 00:41:25,280 It's all good. So yeah, they, they took a 4.3% 728 00:41:25,280 --> 00:41:29,840 stake in in Poly metal was about nine months ago at $0.35 a share 729 00:41:29,840 --> 00:41:32,880 for 2 1/2 bill. So they've made some good bank 730 00:41:32,880 --> 00:41:37,560 on that one. But they can invest another 2 731 00:41:37,560 --> 00:41:42,520 1/2 mil at $0.35 a share when certain conditions precedent CPS 732 00:41:43,480 --> 00:41:45,360 are met. So if we'll flash up the the 733 00:41:45,360 --> 00:41:48,680 screen grab there from the announcement back in May of last 734 00:41:48,680 --> 00:41:51,480 year. So and one of those being 735 00:41:51,760 --> 00:41:54,720 polymetals securing sufficient funding to restart the Endeavour 736 00:41:54,720 --> 00:41:57,800 mine and processing plant. And they're also sort of looking 737 00:41:57,800 --> 00:42:01,920 at entering a tolling agreement together to treat the zinc ore 738 00:42:02,720 --> 00:42:10,000 at Mac's plant and also a water offtake agreement where Mac can 739 00:42:10,000 --> 00:42:15,240 draw some water from the Endeavour mine pipeline. 740 00:42:16,080 --> 00:42:20,440 So I imagine now most of those should with this funding, I 741 00:42:20,440 --> 00:42:24,400 imagine all of those CPS would have been probably ticked off. 742 00:42:24,400 --> 00:42:27,720 I guess I'm not too sure, but just having I just wanted to 743 00:42:27,720 --> 00:42:32,720 refresh myself where Mac or the CSA mine is sort of in in 744 00:42:32,720 --> 00:42:36,520 relation to endeavour. And it looks like about roughly 745 00:42:36,920 --> 00:42:42,440 30 cases as a as a crow flies in in this image here in the Holly 746 00:42:42,440 --> 00:42:45,040 Metals Prezo. But yeah, hopefully they can get 747 00:42:45,040 --> 00:42:48,800 their restart over the line without sort of any further 748 00:42:49,360 --> 00:42:53,680 funding develops Woodlawn actually, because I thought, oh, 749 00:42:53,680 --> 00:42:59,760 surely this would be, you know, you know, the most recent base 750 00:42:59,760 --> 00:43:02,080 metals sort of race start sort of coming back online. 751 00:43:02,080 --> 00:43:08,240 But Woodlawn's due, you know, for first production and and 752 00:43:08,280 --> 00:43:11,000 cash flow in the June quarter as well. 753 00:43:11,440 --> 00:43:14,400 I'm a Ding, Ding on, on develop, but yeah, I'll be curious to see 754 00:43:14,400 --> 00:43:17,000 who will be first develop or Poly metals. 755 00:43:17,720 --> 00:43:20,360 So yeah, no good to see some action back in base metals 756 00:43:20,360 --> 00:43:21,280 again. Yeah. 757 00:43:21,280 --> 00:43:24,800 And isn't it funny looking at like develop and Mac like 758 00:43:24,800 --> 00:43:30,840 considering the whole how Mac became Mac with Bill being 759 00:43:30,840 --> 00:43:38,680 involved in the the SPAC, you'd say to get to get bloody CSI 760 00:43:38,680 --> 00:43:42,720 into Metals Acquisition Corp. Now what is it? 761 00:43:42,920 --> 00:43:45,200 Mac Copper Mac. Copper now, yeah. 762 00:43:45,280 --> 00:43:49,200 It went Metal Mails Acquisition Corp, Metals Acquisition Limited 763 00:43:49,360 --> 00:43:51,560 and then Mac Copper. Yep. 764 00:43:51,680 --> 00:43:53,280 So I got it right. Yeah, I think that's about 765 00:43:53,280 --> 00:43:55,720 right. So I just wondered like and then 766 00:43:55,720 --> 00:44:00,120 that was it. That was the link on a because 767 00:44:01,800 --> 00:44:04,280 Mick McMullen was, he was on the board to develop. 768 00:44:04,400 --> 00:44:06,320 Then he obviously resigned off the board. 769 00:44:06,320 --> 00:44:09,360 And I don't know, it's just like they've part of bikes. 770 00:44:09,480 --> 00:44:12,480 I wonder if there will be any interaction ever again, like 771 00:44:12,480 --> 00:44:16,760 developed getting a contract there or rather than who who 772 00:44:16,760 --> 00:44:19,800 knows, they've just or they're going to be now in competition. 773 00:44:20,800 --> 00:44:24,920 Yeah, bizarre family tree. Oh, that's mining for you. 774 00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:27,400 Oh. Right there, JC, we have now. 775 00:44:27,400 --> 00:44:32,520 I don't know if this is I don't know if it's surely there's been 776 00:44:32,520 --> 00:44:36,040 an on market takeover. The the on market takeover today 777 00:44:36,040 --> 00:44:42,520 between for Patronus taking over matter proposing to it. 778 00:44:42,520 --> 00:44:45,680 Just obviously I can. I can't think of what if there's 779 00:44:45,680 --> 00:44:50,080 been any sense while you taking over Mincore because that was 780 00:44:50,080 --> 00:44:53,880 the in terms of an on market takeover with the big huge 781 00:44:53,880 --> 00:44:56,760 byline order. Sitting on screen. 782 00:44:56,760 --> 00:44:59,360 Shit loads of hundreds of millions of shares sitting on 783 00:44:59,360 --> 00:45:01,760 screen. I'm sure the M&A bankers in the 784 00:45:01,800 --> 00:45:04,240 audience will be sure to let us know, but yeah, no. 785 00:45:04,320 --> 00:45:06,600 Well, Ben Bailey about that, yeah, I'm sure he knows I'll 786 00:45:06,600 --> 00:45:10,360 probably, there's probably been like fucking 8 or 9, but. 787 00:45:10,400 --> 00:45:12,240 It's no, you're right. They're definitely on the on the 788 00:45:12,240 --> 00:45:16,000 rarer side. So, so the context, yeah, as 789 00:45:16,000 --> 00:45:19,800 Maddie was saying, the Patronus announced an on market takeover 790 00:45:19,800 --> 00:45:23,080 for gold developer Matzer at at four and a half cents, sort of 791 00:45:23,080 --> 00:45:26,880 valuing Matzer at 33 million. And so Patronus and their 792 00:45:26,880 --> 00:45:29,840 associates, which is IE the Delphi Deutsche Belgium group 793 00:45:29,960 --> 00:45:32,600 already hold about 19 1/2% of MATSA. 794 00:45:33,240 --> 00:45:35,800 And Patronus said in their announcement today, Patronus has 795 00:45:35,800 --> 00:45:37,760 made the offer with the intention of increasing its 796 00:45:37,760 --> 00:45:40,720 ownership in MATSA and will seek to potentially restructure the 797 00:45:40,720 --> 00:45:43,200 existing MATSA board and management and conduct a 798 00:45:43,200 --> 00:45:45,800 strategic review of Matsa's asset base. 799 00:45:46,200 --> 00:45:50,120 And they appointed EUR Hartley's broker to stand in the market to 800 00:45:50,160 --> 00:45:54,400 purchase MATSA shares at the at the offer price from today. 801 00:45:54,760 --> 00:45:56,440 A bit of statement came out today as well. 802 00:45:56,440 --> 00:46:02,000 And MATSA subsequently later today issued a sort of a take no 803 00:46:02,000 --> 00:46:05,320 action release in response to the unsolicited takeover. 804 00:46:05,320 --> 00:46:08,360 Now I'm not going to touch too much on the on the deal itself 805 00:46:08,360 --> 00:46:12,000 today, but what sort of caught both of our eye is that was the 806 00:46:12,000 --> 00:46:14,720 takeover mechanism. Mechanism being an on market 807 00:46:14,720 --> 00:46:17,920 takeover which you rarely say most mining deals are you know 808 00:46:17,920 --> 00:46:21,560 more often than not an off market takeover or by way of the 809 00:46:21,560 --> 00:46:24,960 scheme. So for those money miners who 810 00:46:25,120 --> 00:46:28,440 are not so sure how on market takeover bid works. 811 00:46:29,120 --> 00:46:31,840 Come into the Alley GC educational section. 812 00:46:31,840 --> 00:46:33,640 Come. Come into the tent. 813 00:46:33,640 --> 00:46:39,120 So basically the bidder in this example, Petrodus appoints a 814 00:46:39,120 --> 00:46:43,000 stockbroker, which today's example EUR Hartley's to stand 815 00:46:43,000 --> 00:46:47,520 in the market on ASICS and purchase the target securities, 816 00:46:48,120 --> 00:46:51,840 which is Matson on behalf of the bidder. 817 00:46:52,320 --> 00:46:57,000 So the stockbroker places a a buy order on the ASICS trading 818 00:46:57,000 --> 00:47:01,720 platform equal to, you know, the bidders offer price, which in 819 00:47:01,720 --> 00:47:04,800 today's offers four and a half cents a share, all quoted 820 00:47:04,800 --> 00:47:07,320 securities in that target it doesn't already own. 821 00:47:08,080 --> 00:47:11,560 And then the target shareholders then simply sell their shares on 822 00:47:11,560 --> 00:47:14,800 ASICS to the bidder at that offer price, if you know, if 823 00:47:14,800 --> 00:47:19,240 they choose to. And because an on market bid is 824 00:47:19,240 --> 00:47:24,600 conducted on an ASICS trading platform, the offer must consist 825 00:47:24,600 --> 00:47:28,400 of cash consideration only and it has to be unconditional. 826 00:47:28,640 --> 00:47:30,800 And that's sort of one of the main reasons why they're often 827 00:47:30,800 --> 00:47:34,120 not saying because, you know, you can't have conditions or you 828 00:47:34,120 --> 00:47:36,320 might want to use your script. So in that case, you can't, you 829 00:47:36,320 --> 00:47:38,800 know, do do it that way. Yeah, you literally need the 830 00:47:38,800 --> 00:47:40,520 cash and and you've got no choice. 831 00:47:40,560 --> 00:47:42,520 Of and just full send it. Yeah, yeah, yeah. 832 00:47:42,800 --> 00:47:45,880 Full send. And, and obviously the, the key 833 00:47:45,880 --> 00:47:50,400 advantage of, of using going about it this way is, is speed. 834 00:47:50,400 --> 00:47:53,920 So, you know, you can start buying target shares within an 835 00:47:53,920 --> 00:47:57,120 hour of announcing the sort of takeover bid to ASICS. 836 00:47:57,480 --> 00:48:01,680 But the problem you can run into is if the stock is trading above 837 00:48:01,680 --> 00:48:05,120 the offer price, then there's no real speed advantage because you 838 00:48:05,120 --> 00:48:07,600 can't, you know, all the shares can be trading, but if they're 839 00:48:07,600 --> 00:48:10,880 not at the offer price, you can't buy them and. 840 00:48:11,040 --> 00:48:13,840 You've got people buy then selling shares and people that 841 00:48:13,840 --> 00:48:17,320 are buying them above your offer price, they're going to be less 842 00:48:17,320 --> 00:48:19,200 inclined to sell them at a loss. Yeah. 843 00:48:19,440 --> 00:48:22,120 Well, that's right. So for example, I saw sort of 844 00:48:22,120 --> 00:48:25,760 mats today trading in the sort of high fours, which is. 845 00:48:25,760 --> 00:48:29,320 More than the 74.8, yeah. Which more than the offer price 846 00:48:29,320 --> 00:48:32,200 of four and a half cents. So correct me if I'm wrong, I 847 00:48:32,200 --> 00:48:36,920 don't think any actual they didn't increase their ownership 848 00:48:36,960 --> 00:48:39,400 at all today. I don't think any shares traded, 849 00:48:40,480 --> 00:48:46,840 let's just get the final NAP. So you can see on either the big 850 00:48:46,840 --> 00:48:52,000 byline of 599,000,000 shares, which is not all them I don't 851 00:48:52,000 --> 00:48:55,360 think, but most of them are at four and a half cents. 852 00:48:55,360 --> 00:48:59,720 But everything today 2.83 million shares traded at 4.7 to 853 00:48:59,720 --> 00:49:02,480 4.8. So they actually the price just 854 00:49:02,480 --> 00:49:06,640 rose up 17 1/2 percent, but nothing actually cleared at that 855 00:49:06,640 --> 00:49:08,920 four and a half cents. Today, yeah. 856 00:49:08,920 --> 00:49:13,560 So you can with on market takeover bids, you can increase 857 00:49:13,560 --> 00:49:17,440 the offer price at any time sort of before the last five trading 858 00:49:17,440 --> 00:49:21,640 days of the offer period. But if they do, the bidder 859 00:49:21,640 --> 00:49:24,600 doesn't need to pay that increased consideration to 860 00:49:24,600 --> 00:49:27,120 target shareholders who have already accepted. 861 00:49:27,120 --> 00:49:32,840 So say you in today's example sold into that four and a half 862 00:49:32,840 --> 00:49:36,400 cents and then you know, 3 weeks later they up it to $0.05. 863 00:49:36,920 --> 00:49:38,640 You know, you don't get that at half a cent. 864 00:49:38,640 --> 00:49:40,160 That's too bad. You've sold your shares that's 865 00:49:40,160 --> 00:49:44,040 even finished. Yeah, the bid in these 866 00:49:44,040 --> 00:49:47,800 scenarios, the bids often driven by the bidder and doesn't 867 00:49:47,800 --> 00:49:51,320 really, you know, require target consent or corporation. 868 00:49:51,320 --> 00:49:55,520 So they tend to, more often than not be more hostile type deals 869 00:49:55,520 --> 00:49:58,320 rather than friendly, unless obviously, of course, you know, 870 00:49:58,320 --> 00:50:01,440 the target sort of comes out and says, yes, you know, we 871 00:50:01,440 --> 00:50:03,240 recommend this deal. Go ahead, da, da, da, da da. 872 00:50:04,400 --> 00:50:08,120 I could see Kamiko and Next Gen. being a on market takeover. 873 00:50:08,120 --> 00:50:11,400 Oh, that's nice. Bit a bit hostile, yeah. 874 00:50:11,880 --> 00:50:14,480 And on the same day you announce all this, you need to submit a 875 00:50:14,480 --> 00:50:17,160 bit of statement which they did put it out today in today's 876 00:50:17,160 --> 00:50:21,560 example on the targets has to respond in in two weeks to that. 877 00:50:21,560 --> 00:50:25,440 So it'll be interesting to say how this deal plays out given 878 00:50:25,440 --> 00:50:29,360 like where the share price is, has been trading relative to the 879 00:50:29,360 --> 00:50:33,680 offer price and and what Matt's response is to to all of it. 880 00:50:33,680 --> 00:50:37,040 So yeah, bit of a interesting one we don't always sort of see 881 00:50:37,360 --> 00:50:40,200 day-to-day, but. He, I suppose, I suppose 882 00:50:40,200 --> 00:50:42,960 Petronas had to figure out a way for us to talk about him. 883 00:50:43,440 --> 00:50:44,600 So there's a lot, a lot to go on. 884 00:50:44,600 --> 00:50:48,520 Maybe 'cause you think back to the Minkor Wailu thing. 885 00:50:48,520 --> 00:50:51,800 Yes, they put in the Dollar 40 offer and then it started 886 00:50:51,800 --> 00:50:54,640 trading above 'cause there was the thought that that was nickel 887 00:50:54,640 --> 00:50:56,960 Mania time. They were thinking that, you 888 00:50:56,960 --> 00:50:57,920 know. Something else going? 889 00:50:57,920 --> 00:51:01,760 To come in. But then BHP gave Wailu the gift 890 00:51:01,760 --> 00:51:06,040 in saying that some, I think it was some of the minkor or what 891 00:51:06,040 --> 00:51:09,840 was stockpiled separately or wasn't accepted due to the high 892 00:51:09,840 --> 00:51:14,120 arsenic levels. And once that news, once that 893 00:51:14,120 --> 00:51:19,200 news came out, Wailu said Nah, dollar 40, best and final and 894 00:51:19,200 --> 00:51:20,400 cause. That and then everyone sort of 895 00:51:20,400 --> 00:51:22,520 sold into that, didn't they? Yeah, yeah, everyone. 896 00:51:22,520 --> 00:51:25,280 Yeah. So that cause and then I know 897 00:51:25,280 --> 00:51:28,560 there was mechanisms around 'cause once you go best and 898 00:51:28,560 --> 00:51:30,400 final you can't obviously. No, that's it. 899 00:51:30,400 --> 00:51:32,280 That's. Go up anymore and then so it 900 00:51:32,280 --> 00:51:36,160 worked out good good for him. So this is obviously day one of 901 00:51:36,160 --> 00:51:39,040 this, so we will. Wait and see, keep an eye on it, 902 00:51:39,080 --> 00:51:41,360 yeah. Oh quick around the grounds, 903 00:51:42,560 --> 00:51:45,800 can't wait till the boys get back and bloody all these half 904 00:51:45,800 --> 00:51:48,480 One Financial results like talking that's. 905 00:51:48,600 --> 00:51:52,040 Their that's. For sure underlying statutory 906 00:51:52,200 --> 00:51:56,280 profit loss. Look, not that I don't care, but 907 00:51:56,280 --> 00:51:58,360 it's not my. I'd rather just talk about 908 00:51:58,360 --> 00:52:02,040 uranium speculation and underground mining like 909 00:52:02,120 --> 00:52:04,800 geometry. Everyone's got their coming to 910 00:52:04,840 --> 00:52:07,680 you, buddy. We'll limp limped through it 911 00:52:07,680 --> 00:52:09,800 bloody. Also because Pilbara sort of 912 00:52:10,200 --> 00:52:13,000 they've pre. I don't know is this a thing 913 00:52:13,200 --> 00:52:15,320 pre? Reporting of reporting pre. 914 00:52:15,320 --> 00:52:18,320 Reporting financial results instead of pre reporting 915 00:52:18,320 --> 00:52:22,280 production. So pre reporting EBITDA of 71 to 916 00:52:22,280 --> 00:52:26,080 75,000,000 for half one, but a net loss of. 917 00:52:26,960 --> 00:52:31,360 So an underlying net loss estimated of five to seven 918 00:52:31,360 --> 00:52:34,360 million. So because I think they're the 919 00:52:34,360 --> 00:52:38,480 carrying value of let me say it without reading it, see how 920 00:52:38,480 --> 00:52:42,320 smart I am, but like the the call option to purchase the 921 00:52:42,840 --> 00:52:47,360 extra in the POSCO JV that the carrying value of that has been 922 00:52:47,360 --> 00:52:53,760 reduced, which obviously then is like a statutory loss. 923 00:52:53,960 --> 00:52:56,240 Yes, it impacts your pay now, that's right. 924 00:52:56,320 --> 00:52:57,760 Yeah. So that's what that's why I say 925 00:52:57,760 --> 00:53:01,400 their statutory loss is greater than their underlying net loss. 926 00:53:01,400 --> 00:53:05,840 Underlying is just from the operations and the CapEx and 927 00:53:05,840 --> 00:53:09,200 bloody everything with the carrying value that's a non cash 928 00:53:09,200 --> 00:53:10,360 reduction. Yeah. 929 00:53:10,680 --> 00:53:15,160 So it's just interesting because even despite their sort of 930 00:53:15,520 --> 00:53:19,520 roughly, you know, US 400 bucks a tonne F of a unit cost for, 931 00:53:19,520 --> 00:53:23,200 for the first half of this year, so far they've got $1.2 billion 932 00:53:23,280 --> 00:53:28,760 cash a bank and they're still, you know, practically just shy 933 00:53:28,760 --> 00:53:32,240 of, you know, breaking even on on an underlying basis. 934 00:53:32,240 --> 00:53:35,920 So Jesus, what are that? You know, that the implications 935 00:53:35,920 --> 00:53:39,840 for sort of other lithium, you know, players or, you know, 936 00:53:39,840 --> 00:53:44,640 lithium spod players in particular, it's sort of, yeah, 937 00:53:44,640 --> 00:53:48,120 sort of not, not awfully great. Well, I think and like prep to 938 00:53:48,120 --> 00:53:51,920 prep everyone for the financial results like when they talk 939 00:53:51,920 --> 00:53:56,440 about EBITDAR that's you know, like I, I think a rule of thumb, 940 00:53:56,440 --> 00:53:59,520 I don't think it's exactly the same, but like a gold miner's 941 00:53:59,640 --> 00:54:02,280 EBITDAR, if you take the all in sustaining cost away from the 942 00:54:02,280 --> 00:54:06,000 sale price, effectively that margin is your EBITDAR, but it 943 00:54:06,000 --> 00:54:10,160 doesn't include all the CapEx and the corporate overheads. 944 00:54:10,160 --> 00:54:11,840 Yeah. And all that, but it's. 945 00:54:11,840 --> 00:54:14,680 A rough rule of thumb. Yeah, so you could have positive 946 00:54:14,840 --> 00:54:18,360 EBITDAR, but if you spend a shit load of capital, it doesn't you 947 00:54:18,360 --> 00:54:22,920 still lose money. It's AI think it's an I don't 948 00:54:22,920 --> 00:54:25,960 know how the best to explain it, but the what did they say? 949 00:54:25,960 --> 00:54:29,520 Was it bloody Charlie Munger or Warren Buffett saying EBITDAR is 950 00:54:31,360 --> 00:54:34,360 not the calculation to use in a capital intensive business? 951 00:54:34,360 --> 00:54:37,360 Which mining is? What is it bullshit earnings? 952 00:54:37,560 --> 00:54:39,600 Bullshit earnings? That's what he called EBITDA is 953 00:54:39,600 --> 00:54:42,640 bullshit earnings. Oh no, always, always. 954 00:54:42,880 --> 00:54:46,400 I like looking at at Cash, Cash in, cash out personally. 955 00:54:46,400 --> 00:54:48,280 Yeah. But then they, but a lot of when 956 00:54:48,280 --> 00:54:51,680 they talk about company valuations are on EV to EBITDA 957 00:54:51,880 --> 00:54:55,720 multiple that I suppose that's how they look at, you know, how 958 00:54:55,720 --> 00:54:58,000 much money the operations make. Yeah. 959 00:54:58,800 --> 00:55:03,160 So yeah, I'll stop talking 'cause I'll of the more more 960 00:55:03,160 --> 00:55:05,360 I'll talk digger the diaper. I'll dig. 961 00:55:05,920 --> 00:55:09,040 No, you're all right. And then the the last one for 962 00:55:09,040 --> 00:55:15,480 today was we saw the sort of the a, a flagged in a UBS note out 963 00:55:15,600 --> 00:55:19,040 into last week saying that CATLS, the pedalite mine in 964 00:55:19,120 --> 00:55:25,800 Jiangxi is apparently currently resuming operations according to 965 00:55:25,800 --> 00:55:29,360 Shanghai Metals market. It's sort of featured in the in 966 00:55:29,360 --> 00:55:32,680 the AFR today as well. So apparently they're sort of 967 00:55:32,680 --> 00:55:35,240 suspended operations there last September. 968 00:55:35,240 --> 00:55:41,160 So, you know, off the that, you know, on that news sort of last 969 00:55:41,160 --> 00:55:45,160 Friday, you know, Hillbra Blind town means RGO, their share 970 00:55:45,160 --> 00:55:46,800 prices all came off a few percent. 971 00:55:47,560 --> 00:55:49,880 They're all sort of flattish today. 972 00:55:50,960 --> 00:55:55,960 You know, why resume operations at at prices close to where they 973 00:55:55,960 --> 00:55:59,360 were, you know, when that was sort of suspended operations 974 00:56:00,200 --> 00:56:02,720 that sort of suggested maybe due to low inventories, you know, 975 00:56:02,720 --> 00:56:06,440 trying to mix with high grade or, you know, reducing, you 976 00:56:06,440 --> 00:56:09,800 know, sort of unit costs and sort of that sort of a thing. 977 00:56:10,600 --> 00:56:14,080 You know, according to the latest production sort of stats 978 00:56:14,080 --> 00:56:18,240 from CMM, this mine could contribute sort of five to 6000 979 00:56:18,240 --> 00:56:20,920 tonnes LCE per month after it sort of resumes. 980 00:56:20,920 --> 00:56:24,240 So it's decent volumes. But yeah, just the the whole 981 00:56:24,240 --> 00:56:28,320 lithium supply demand roller coasters just just seems to 982 00:56:28,320 --> 00:56:30,800 continue, doesn't it? Yeah, no, the IT was pretty 983 00:56:30,800 --> 00:56:33,680 bearish that you UBS Snowden and like they were saying post 984 00:56:33,680 --> 00:56:36,720 Chinese New Year, like, you know, inventories were were low, 985 00:56:36,720 --> 00:56:40,000 which has sort of given a bit of a tick up in the lift price. 986 00:56:40,000 --> 00:56:43,280 And but now this little bit of light mine restarting and yeah, 987 00:56:43,280 --> 00:56:47,400 they reckon it might be they're they're predicting it being a 988 00:56:47,400 --> 00:56:50,040 bit under pressure. Taking it going. 989 00:56:50,040 --> 00:56:55,280 Forward so, but we will wait and see the the Chinese bloody 990 00:56:55,280 --> 00:56:57,640 lapidolite tap. They can turn on and off 991 00:56:58,280 --> 00:57:03,600 whenever they bloody want. Yeah, or something mad might 992 00:57:03,600 --> 00:57:05,680 happen and it might go 5X, who knows. 993 00:57:06,440 --> 00:57:08,560 One of the two. Bloody who bloody knows. 994 00:57:08,800 --> 00:57:13,400 I know that I know that Underground Operators Conference 995 00:57:13,400 --> 00:57:15,200 is the best underground conference in the world. 996 00:57:15,400 --> 00:57:17,840 That is one thing I do now. That is a fact for sure. 997 00:57:17,840 --> 00:57:21,840 And you can get another fact is you can get 100 bucks off using 998 00:57:21,840 --> 00:57:25,760 the code MOM 100. Link it in the show notes to the 999 00:57:25,760 --> 00:57:27,440 Ozil. MMM Underground Operators 1000 00:57:27,440 --> 00:57:30,840 Conference. Come bloody have a beer with me. 1001 00:57:30,920 --> 00:57:32,680 'Cause I'm hanging out with. Maddie, I'm gonna be having a 1002 00:57:32,680 --> 00:57:34,200 few there. Oh, I don't. 1003 00:57:34,280 --> 00:57:35,920 Mineral mining services won't be gone. 1004 00:57:35,920 --> 00:57:41,000 They're they're more an open pit contractor, but I don't think 1005 00:57:41,000 --> 00:57:42,720 they'll be. I got grounded. 1006 00:57:42,800 --> 00:57:46,760 I wonder Paul Natali, please come to underground operators 1007 00:57:46,760 --> 00:57:48,840 with me. Sambit ground support. 1008 00:57:48,840 --> 00:57:50,440 They will have a huge tent there. 1009 00:57:50,720 --> 00:57:53,720 I am probably just going to hang around with Derek Hurd all the 1010 00:57:53,720 --> 00:57:58,520 time at that conference. Or CR insurance it is. 1011 00:57:58,720 --> 00:58:01,400 Oh, it's in Adelaide, so it's right in the middle of Tari 1012 00:58:01,400 --> 00:58:02,480 Harrow. Not sure who. 1013 00:58:02,560 --> 00:58:08,760 Dads all of years come bloody K drill, surface RC drill and 1014 00:58:08,760 --> 00:58:11,280 probably not as applicable. Saltbush contracting. 1015 00:58:12,160 --> 00:58:15,320 Yeah, it'd be rude. Once it once it once it comes 1016 00:58:15,320 --> 00:58:17,680 out of the mine they get a time. Specialist. 1017 00:58:17,680 --> 00:58:24,080 Yeah, Swick absolutely by 17,000,000 meters drilled 1018 00:58:24,200 --> 00:58:26,560 underground. Yeah, they'll have a tent. 1019 00:58:26,560 --> 00:58:28,080 They might even have a deep X tent there. 1020 00:58:28,360 --> 00:58:31,920 Quattro Project engineering, the inventors of the bloody Oh 1021 00:58:32,040 --> 00:58:36,720 surely they'll pace the the the pace diverter the friggin the 1022 00:58:36,720 --> 00:58:40,520 fan or like the fan hangers, the AWP baskets like they are 1023 00:58:40,880 --> 00:58:43,880 underground as anything and cross be entry energy. 1024 00:58:43,880 --> 00:58:46,000 No point have an underground if you can't pay out the bloody 1025 00:58:46,000 --> 00:58:47,360 thing. Absolutely. 1026 00:58:48,040 --> 00:58:49,400 Right. I heard a room money morning. 1027 00:58:49,440 --> 00:58:52,720 Jeez, that was a long 1, Jason. You're just used to it, aren't 1028 00:58:52,760 --> 00:58:53,880 you? No, it's just. 1029 00:58:54,880 --> 00:58:55,520 Same shit. Different. 1030 00:58:55,520 --> 00:58:57,080 That's alright. Once the boys come back I'll 1031 00:58:57,080 --> 00:58:59,160 have a couple of weeks off. It's all good, I'll leave you 1032 00:58:59,160 --> 00:59:01,200 alone. See ya. 1033 00:59:02,080 --> 00:59:04,600 The information contained in this episode of Money of Mine is 1034 00:59:04,600 --> 00:59:06,800 of general nature only and does not take into account the 1035 00:59:06,800 --> 00:59:10,440 objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular 1036 00:59:10,440 --> 00:59:12,480 person. Before making any investment 1037 00:59:12,480 --> 00:59:15,520 decision, you should consult with your financial advisor and 1038 00:59:15,520 --> 00:59:18,680 consider how appropriate the advice is to your objectives, 1039 00:59:18,880 --> 00:59:20,840 financial situation and needs.