Rhino money miners another week and Big M and a possibility
we're in that end of town. Hopefully not another bloody BHP
angle I think because that just eventuated to nothing.
But it might not be. Hold on dear seats.
And jeez, we've got a who? Who?
We've got a guest coming on to divulge a bit more about this
potential Rio Arcadium merger who is obviously saying need to
get that bloody get that price up dogs.
We do. This is exciting, mate.
We try, yeah. We, we always try and wedge
ourselves into deals in some way, shape or form.
And this time we've managed to get the shareholder who's making
the most noise at the moment to come on the potty and dial in.
Easy to contact when they're making heaps of noise.
It's great. Cool.
Yeah, yeah. Start bloody bit girl.
Or better. Better AR, better the The
Takeovers panel Backflip ERA WAFF has plummeted today on the
back of some, you know you'd say scepticism around Burkina Faso
nationalising. But is this another by the coup
moment by the dip? Who knows?
That's a big question, isn't? It Oh mate you a big question JD
Does mineral mining services still have gear available for a
contract? The answer is yes.
Yes they do. Yes, same as last week, same as
this week. They're still ready and rocking
to go for an open pit mining contract.
Mate. They can do JVS.
They can just RIP, tear, bust and get it all out as quick as
possible. Give you cash flow.
Give them a call. If your rocks can make money
they'll they can do it for you ASAP.
And that's another website header I think.
Trap. Well done mate, I like it.
Right now. Let's RIP in so the coming out
on the weekend, not Friday. The article about the Rio
Arcadium. It was Ghost Friday because in
after market trade Arcadium teared up 30 plus percent, so
it. Started super exciting, right?
This is the beginning of town for those who don't know Mario
Chinto's confirmed that they have submitted an on mining bid
for Arcadia and like these rumours around the rumours
around the potential deal. I think they could be traced to
the back end of last week was actually was actually a
favourite column that penned a column penned an article on
Thursday data room saying that Rio was eyeing off a big deal.
Then she named both Arcadium and Albemarle in that one.
I mean, there's been some rumours before that, but let's
just, let's just. Good to say hit a one. 80 We'll
give her credit on on Saturday, though, it was Reuters who had
the scoop that Rio taught us that Rio Tinto was in talks
specifically with Arcadium in a, in a deal which was suggested to
be worth between US four and $6 billion.
And then this morning's ASX release, Rio Tinto, they, they
confirmed, I said we're, we're, we're in talks with Arcadium.
And and that's where it gets pretty interesting because
they've confirmed it right then to throw another spanner into
the mix, one of Arcadium shareholders, a, a Sydney based
kind of fund called Black Waddle.
They've promptly penned this letter to the board of Arcadium,
which is, is chaired by Peter Coleman, suggesting that the,
you know, a deal in the vicinity of that, you know, US 4 to $6
billion would be, would severely undervalue the business.
And of course is much lower than than where share price was
itself earlier this year too. So must have just been an
absolute whirlwind of a, a weekend for the, you know, for
the deal teams at Rio, at Arcadium, the the respective
advisors and the the chairs, etcetera.
But there's a lot of talking points to cover in relation to
this news guys. We're going to go through why
Arcadium and not Albemarle or, or Pilbara or any development
project out there. Why now?
What are Rio's plans here? What's the likelihood of a deal
actually going ahead? And and what about the Arcadium
shareholders that will be frustrated by any offer that
doesn't get the share price back to where it was recently?
Well, that point if we're going to have certain person dial in
very soon. It's obviously on one side of
the fence, probably probably a refresh for for people who don't
know arcadium and you wouldn't bloody blame them because it's
the the bloody movements that's created it.
That was it was aura cobre Galaxy made all chem all chem
merge with live it. Now you've got Arcadium, now
potentially Rio Tinto. Isn't it funny how both of those
mergers that they did, they renamed the company to neither
of the like merging entity server?
Like Oracle bread Galaxy became all chem and all chem live and
became OK. Why keep renaming?
It's just so confusing. Merger vehicles.
Merger of vehicles, no name is better than the other.
Yeah, right, JD, Give us the bloody, give us the view, give
us the share price asset, all that shit.
Bloody overview. Who is Arcady?
The thing that jumps out obviously is the share price
reaction today up I think last time like 47% just absolutely
flying. You can see on the the spark
chart there which. That.
That's pretty wild right that that is, you know a pretty
violent move to the to the kind of upside there.
So that leaves the company kept at US 3.3 billion.
So quick reminder, like you said on the back of all those deals
US is now their their call listing, but they've got ACDI
here in Australia on the ASX 10 operating sites up and
downstream. Again, like you said, Maddie,
these guys are real mishmash of everything lithium related.
So in 2024 terms, their upstream capacity, what they produce from
their brines, Oleros and Fenix, both in Argentina is sort of
circa 75,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent.
Now they've got all these growth assets that they talk about and
you'll remember on the Investor Day they sort of trimmed back
the spending to kind of tighten the belt a bit and give the
investors confidence that they wouldn't be running short of
cash, are still reaching their, you know, stated sort of 2828
goals. So they've got downstream
opportunities in Argentina and then they've got Galaxy and
Namaskar Lithium, both in Canada.
They are Hard Rock growth assets that at varying stages.
One of them, Namaskar, they're looking to turn the spot into
hydroxide as well. Of course they've got Mount
Catlin, which has been recently mothballed here in WA.
Not. Yet 25.
To be down to be mothballed yet and then yeah in terms of
downstream they talk about producing hydroxide chloride,
butyl lithium, high purity metal in that investigate they they
sort of really pride themselves on not being pinned on just the
EV sector. So they talk about producing to
the, the farmer space, the ceramics and glass making
sectors and all these other things.
And that sort of comes at the history of, of live and, and
everything that they had done over the sort of previous 50 odd
years that they'd been in production.
And they also speak a lot about building the sort of flexibility
of kind of toggling between carbonate and hydroxide
depending on what gets them better value.
So they're definitely building in capacity to produce both of
them. They've got downstream in China,
Japan, the USA. Yeah, that, that recent strategy
day was like super interesting. I remember, you know, 1 slide
that did the rounds there was, you know, they, they, they talk
about and, and expect their Max kind of leverage to, to reach
sort of 2.1 times that's EBITDA. And then they, they actually,
they actually point like they illustrate what their projected
EBITDA will be assuming a, a $1400 per per tonne sort of spot
price in 2028. And that that very number
actually became subject to, you know, the multiples that we saw
kind of talked about on Twitter and also in in the letter penned
by Black Waddle, because, you know, that gives them gives
their share out a lot of creators to argue that a bit in
the vicinity of four to $6 billion would undervalue the
company. If it's the lower end of that
bound, then what you talk you're talking around like three times
that that that that 2028 projected EBITDA on those
consensus numbers. Yeah.
For those that hadn't caught the number 1.3 billion EBITDA was
the one that was, you know, commonly quoted.
Yeah. And would be better to to talk
about that letter then like we've got, we've got Michael
Doran from who's a portfolio manager at Blackwater dialling
into the show. So pretty keen.
I mean, in Full disclosure, Black Waddle, they they're
obviously long Arcadium. In the letter they disclosed
that they bought their stake shortly after the merger
completed, which that merger completed January 4th of this
year. Since then the share price is
still down about 40% even after today's 45% price spike.
Oh really? Yeah.
Oh, he's snapping dark shit. Yeah, yeah, right.
Mike. Come on, Mike, let's do it.
Thanks man. OK, so having me on.
This is this is so awesome. We're we're privileged that
you're, you're making noise about a deal and you agree to
come on the podcast to, to get loud.
This is the best place to get loud.
You know, when you're unhappy about terms and who better, who
better to be unhappy about than Rio Tinto in your view with a a
low ball offer for Arcadium. What what was your like?
How were you feeling when you were reading the the leak from
from Reuters over the weekend that there's AUS 4 to $6 billion
deal that's on the table? Yeah.
So, I mean, look, Rio's been talked about as a potential
acquirer for Acadia for a little while.
You know, the, the combination of the assets, you know, really
makes sense for Rio. But I mean, the timing for them,
good, good, good on for Rio. But yeah, for Arcadium
shareholder, this is a very opportunistic time for Rio to to
get the assets. And when, you know, when we saw
that 4 to $6 billion number being floated by Reuters, you
know, we thought that really undervalued the the assets.
And that's you know why we decided we'd, you know, just
provide some feedback to the the board of management at Arcadia.
But what we think you know as long term investors, what we
think about the value of of the assets there.
So, so Mike, as you laid out in in the letter, for those that
haven't sort of seen it, you started accumulating shares
shortly after the merger earlier this year and you've, you know,
been been buying a little bit. Why don't you sort of like lay
out the picture of the the value you kind of see and the sort of
horizon you had on your investment when you sort of
bought into the company and these sorts of things?
Yeah. So I mean our investment style
Blackwater was that we're really focused on quality.
So you know we're looking to sort of build a portfolio of the
the highest quality businesses in every industry across the
ASX. And you know, we're sort of
looking through the lithium space.
You know, we, we sort of doubled in Nigel and Pilbara and then we
sort of start looking a little bit more at Arcadium, which is,
you know, a combination of two businesses.
So it was the US listing live in and then the Australian listing,
OK. And they'd only combined in
December last year. And you sort of look at those
assets and we think they're quite unique within the
industry. So this is a, a vertically
integrated business. So unlike, you know, an IGO or a
or a Kilbra, which is, you know, sends this forge main straight
to China to get processed, but it's a vertically integrated
business that's has an ex China supply chain.
So there's no really there's not really any other business in the
world like it. You know, Albemarle has, you
know, large Chinese processing. And so we thought this is a very
unique asset and the market's not properly evaluating it.
That vertical integration allows it to to have these long term
contracts with the likes of Ford and Tesla and that gives them,
you know, floor pricing and protection in their long term
contracts and so allows them to give have a profitability
through the cycle. And then they have this huge
growth pipeline. So they're expanding in
Argentina, they're growing in Canada and you know, they could,
they're doubling, looks like they're doubling production into
2028 and then they have another opportunity to double production
beyond that. So you know, it's a huge
resource base. And so we put all that together
and thought, you know, the valuation in a few years time,
you've got to be a longer term investor, you know, go for
lithium cycles is pretty tough. But you know, if you sort of
step back and think about what a business looks like in a few
years time, it was, you know, incredibly undervalued asset.
The number you kind of pointed to, you sort of didn't even have
to back out your own kind of potential value that the
business could could be worth because they did the work for
you in the strategy day slide by by pointing to, you know, FY20
8, you know, potential EBITDA under their kind of growth
plans. You're arguing for, you know, a
total kind of evaluation of Arcadium that starts at $8
billion and and is is north of that.
That's a fairway from the $3.3 billion evaluation.
It is right right now. But your math is basically
saying that that's that's like 9 times kind of the EV EBITDA that
you're you're projecting out in in FY20 8.
Is, is a if you know, is that how do you come to that, that
kind of that, that, that arithmetic?
Yeah. Yeah, just just on those
numbers. So you know, if you sort of look
at like companies like Albemarle through the cycle, they trade
about 9:00 to 11:00 times sort of a chemical business, you
know, huge demand lithium, you know, they sort of trade
slightly higher multiples than an iron ore miner, which is
maybe six or seven times even done.
And So what we thought was OK, you know, arcadium's talked to
this this number only three weeks ago, they have some
confidence in this number. If you put that on that multiple
and then you discount it back. So 10% per annum discount back.
So you MPV it back and you should get towards a, you know,
a $8 billion number. And so if the management really,
you know, believe in what they, you know, they can execute and
deliver those projections, then, you know, we think that, you
know, the value value that, you know, talk to Rio has to be in
that sort of ballpark of a discounted valuation back from
the, you know, that that target. Mike, like you, you lay it out
in the in the note. Yeah, LTM has just been
completely smashed this year in in a sector of companies that
have been really, really sort of beaten up.
And I think the the question a lot of people had is that what,
why have they been whacked so hard?
You know, given as as people like to say they do have, you
know, relatively top tier, lower quartile, all these sorts of
things, projects. What?
Why do you have they've been hit so hard by the downturn?
Yeah, I mean, it's it's a couple of things.
I mean, we've been thinking about that as well as we've sort
of been, you know, watching it go all the way down.
Look, I think the US market in particular seems to be very
focused and worried about their balance sheet.
And so, you know, they've got this big growth pipeline.
They're spending a lot of CapEx. And I think part of the, the
Investor Day only a few weeks ago was to sort of, you know,
calm everyone's fears and say, look, you know, we can actually
face this CapEx spread it over many years and, you know,
provide a lot of yeah, headroom for about balance sheet.
So I think that was one of the reasons it got sold off.
I think in, in Australia, the stock's a bit of an orphan
stock. You know, it's, it's unlike the
other, the other lithium players, which are sort of Hard
Rock miners, which, you know, as you know, mining investors in,
in Oz, it's easier to get our heads around while this one's
vertically integrated. And I feel like, you know,
people haven't done the work to really understand what that
actually means. And so I think those two things
have sort of put the pressure on the share price.
Does it being a ACDI as well, does that sort of play into it?
People think, you know what, why play it on the the secondary
kind of listing? Is that a big factor at all?
Yeah. It's, it's, it's funny that like
the, when it first listed, I think about 55% of the
shareholders were ASX listed and then 45 in the US, But that sort
of that flow is just moved towards the US and I think it's
been over 60% now in the US. And so that just makes it that
much harder. And you know, if you look at
like the, the stock indexes in, in ASX, you know, Arcane has
fallen out of there ASX 100 now into a small cap only a couple
of weeks ago as well. So it doesn't help.
Do do you think this was always the end game for Arcadium that
Rayo would take him out? Yeah, feels like that that'll
help them all. You know, the the big assets
that will require capital, you know, patience and and long term
thinking. And you know, I think the
shareholder base is showing that that's not really what they're
looking for, right. And so, you know, it makes sense
that a larger a larger player takes them.
And how amenable do you think Real are going to be for price
negotiation or do you think it's more opportunistic and it's
going to be like a BHP Anglo situation?
Yeah. I mean, I think this is still
strategic for them. You think about like the the
other options they have, you know, they've got issues in in
Serbia, they've got a small asset in Argentina is they seem
to really like Brian. There aren't really many other.
I don't think there's a second prize if you know, if they don't
take Arcadian, Albemarle doesn't fit the bill.
It's got, you know, China, Chinese processing, it's got
some other non lithium parts of the business.
SQM with the issues around Chile just make it too hard.
So I feel like for real, this is all or nothing and this is the
strategic asset that they need if they actually want to chase
off their lithium dreams. So, so how do you think about
then getting the other shareholders to to sort of see
your point of view? I'm sure plenty of them will be
sort of pegged to a higher price given where the stocks kind of
come from. But as we kind of talked through
earlier, sort of breaking down the the register, you've got a a
large number of passive funds and then you've got a whole heap
of, you know, non substantial stakes below 5%, a lot sort of 1
to 2% type stakes. How do, how do you think about
getting them on the side on to to sort of see, see your value?
Have you reached out and got a bit of a feel for how they're
kind of thinking as well? Yeah, we've, we've, you know,
since since that letter sort of went went out, we've had quite a
few inbounds and had a few chats with some.
Look, everyone's got different views, they've got different
time horizons. So some are happier to take, to
take a short term sugar hit. Others are sort of a bit long
term like us. So I mean, there's a variety of
views. Everyone believes that the
assets are undervalued and it's just about what the what the
premium is if if the deals to get done.
You've got a good sugar hit today and a 45% kick up must
make you a bit happier. Yes, it helps.
It does help. I just Chuck Chuck inbounds to
mark in the YouTube comments. While he's listening.
Everyone. Does it, if it, you know, a deal
at six billion US, does that cut the muster?
Well, we think 8 billion is is closer to the right number.
We. Put that number out there and
you know, today you've had a couple of the, the research
houses come out with similar numbers.
So cities said look, a replacement value.
So if you were to rebuild Arcade from from from scratch, it's
going to cost you a bit over $8 billion to do it.
Macquarie have come and said, look, you know, if you value the
full resource base, they've got 8 1/2 billion US valuation.
So, you know, there's a few numbers out there.
We we we think you know towards Adeline is the right number.
The challenge might be in that if if Rio walked what what
happens to Arcadium share price? It probably might come off a
bit. Maybe it doesn't.
I'm I'm not sure. But there's also, you look at
the field of potential like Interlopus here.
And like, I don't, I don't think anyone comes to play other than
Rio, right? Yeah.
Yeah, yeah, you're probably right.
Maybe there is a fit there for for Albemarle, but, you know,
they've got their own issues and otherwise, you know, Rio's the
one, you know, the outsider who wants to get into the industry.
You have the deep pockets so that, you know, it makes sense
for them. I guess.
Look, everyone's going to have their their perspective.
But we're, our view was, look, if you're going to be closer to
that $4 billion mark, you know, share, we think it's better
valued for for acadium to walk away from the deal, just go
alone. Yeah, look, yeah, the management
team have pulled out these targets.
They're, you know, they're confident in executing them.
So they should back themselves to go after it.
You know, our personal view is, you know, on the on the lithium
sort of cycle that we're, you know, probably closer to the
bottom. You know, we're pricing is now
you're hitting cost curve, you're sitting, you're hearing
people curtailing minds. You know, you sort of CATL.
You know it's tough out there, but demand is, is is still OK
and you know the queue up for low prices, low prices and with
patients we probably expect an all time price cycle to happen
in the next couple of years. Is there can you?
Do you have any info on whether the offer was cash script mix or
and as a shareholder, what would you be looking for from real?
Look, all we got to go by is that Reuters article and I mean
there was a mention of the script as well.
I think script might be hard just because of the US investor
base. Do they really want reoscript?
Like if you're, if you're, you know, ASX, you know, investor,
then you know, maybe reoscript is OK at the right premium.
But yeah, I mean, just the US investor base might be a bit too
hard for them. How do you sort of think about
value across the, the lithium space?
I mean, on the on the back of this news, we've seen almost
every name on the watch list kick up.
Are you sort of getting excited? Obviously you mentioned you
think we're sort of eaten, eaten right into the cost curve near
the bottom of the the kind of cycle.
But like you also said, if Rio is not going to swing for some
of these names, who else kind of is?
So it seems a little bit premature that a lot of these
names are starting to run. Are you still excited looking
out there? Well, we're so excited.
We're Arcadia for sure. Any other names?
Like I said, we've, we've our preference is to look at the
larger guys, you know who are, you know, low on the cost curve
they're producing. So you know, we have looked at
Pilbara, we have looked at IGO before.
Yeah, there, there is value there, but people will have to
be patient. I don't even though we're, we
think we are towards the bottom of that cycle, that doesn't mean
that prices RIP tomorrow, right? It's going to take a little
while, but you know, demand is still solid and you've seen this
all those supply determined. So you know, you need listing
prices to be at an incentive price to to get you production
online. Otherwise we're just going to
have the same price cycle again. We're going to have a price
spike at some point. And then we'll have, you know,
everyone go gang Busters and then spend a lot of capital and
we'll have a, you know, go, go find the bottom again, right?
That's that's the way commodity markets work.
Beautiful, beautiful mate. Oh well, we'll we'll look
forward to engaging with you on this journey mate.
This won't be the last time we're talking this deal.
I don't reckon early stages. So thanks for coming on short
notice mate. Appreciate it, Mike.
Thank. You great.
It's great to chat. Thanks so much, Mike.
Thanks guys. Yep.
How good was that? Good stuff.
The one thing we didn't mention The xx China.
That's that's an interesting point that we probably didn't
cover. It's bits and pieces right
there. There is some bits, but you can
sort of divide. If you send your South American
product to your US facilities, then you're on side, but there
are downstream facilities that have in in China too.
So yeah, sort of ebbs and flows, but awesome to hear it's sort of
first hand from the the guys themselves at Black Waddle.
Very, very long term view. Like yeah, it's appearing like
because, you know, ex John is a long term thought.
Yeah, that's right. You sort of carve out your view
of where you think the company will be in sort of three or four
years and that often tends to be much easier than where the
company's going to be in six months time.
Yeah. Very much so, right.
Let's get into the other talking points that you alluded to at
the start of the show. And the I guess the big one was
why, why is Rio Tinto picked Arcadian, which you wouldn't say
is the frigging most stellar blue chip lithium company in the
world by I guess reputation complex, very complex, not like
doesn't have like the one of the two biggest Braun.
Lots of operation. Cost curve, Yeah, it's not.
So it's not Albemarle, No. So why haven't they gone for
Albemarle? It's a, it's a really good
question, Maddie. Like there's a lot of, I think
the, the, the rationale, there's a bunch of different reasons
that I've written down here, but the one that sort of sits well
the most is Arcadium just became way too cheap on a, on a
relative basis. Look at their underperformance
versus Albemarle or Pilbara. Like, you know, Mike actually
outlines in the, in the letter pen to, to the, to the board of,
of Arcadium. It's like down 60 odd percent
year to date versus like, you know, 40 odd for, for the other
two. My Intel suggests that Rio took
a good look at it actually doing a deal here about a year ago, by
the way, So you know, the the the merger of of all Cam and
live Ant was still completing and and Rio had taken a I
understand Rio has taken a pretty good look under the hood,
but couldn't get there on value at that time.
In fact, I'd heard from someone that you know, part of putting
all Cam and live and together was actually, you know, to get
sufficient scale to actually warrant being kind of acquired
by Rio in the long run to. Dress up.
Yeah, yeah. And.
So that and that when you say that we're having a good look
that we're going to have a good look post merger then.
Yeah, Yeah, it was. You're looking at, you're
looking at the combined entity and look at it didn't get over
the line. We've, we've sort of, but that's
changed now because it's down truckload on a relative basis.
So it probably just got a bit too cheap.
I think, I think also just to go on that point on an absolute
basis as well, right, because you go back to years and you can
talk if one's relatively cheaper than the others, but they're all
very expensive. But now we're talking in terms
of the the EBITDA number that was quoted and stuff in absolute
terms, it could be quite cheap if you're believing that's the
the lithium pricing environment we're going to see in a couple
years time. Yeah.
The other point is in putting a bunch of kind of like phone
calls out today to kind of make sense of this.
I learned that I didn't know this before, but I learned that
Rio actually has been really focused on DLE.
Apparently they've built out a pretty substantial technical
team in Lithium. Apparently they've been working
pretty hard on the technology side themselves.
Apparently they're much more interested in in in the
application of the technology they've been working on in Brian
rather than spot. You mean, because they think the
cost optimization of the industry will make, you know,
some of these Brian projects even more cheaper over time,
which complicates things for the larger kind of spot
opportunities out there. And look, Albemarle comes with
plenty of spot, don't get me wrong, like you know, but but
Grand Bushes has a kind of complex joint venture with
Tianchi and then what you know, like you know, you got to accept
that means is operator of that instead.
So it's kind of a more complex kind of spod, semi spod
portfolio. But it does open them up to
obviously the, the Atacama lot, the evaporation side of things.
But if they're very interested in DLA, it opens up the what is
it, the shale oil fields, the what's the American ones?
What are they called? The GSML.
Nah, not the Jr thermal, the ones in America.
The bloody deep deep ones in the oil field that they can't
evaporate but need to be DLA. Yeah, I think, I don't think DLA
is going to be like A11 size fits all like I think I think
you'll have sort of bespoke applications.
I don't even really know if there's a commercial, you know
use yet or how far it is. It's all you know let's wait and
see what eventuates there. But my Intel suggests that Rio
is pretty optimistic about the application.
They might also like, keep in mind they, they, they acquired
Rincon, which is in Argentina and but that that project in
itself might actually like need DLA in order to, to sort of
stack up. So they probably allocate a lot
of resources to this technology side of things.
And as a result, they might have gotten bullish on it and they,
they might have, they might actually see the, the kind of
the long term cost curve as the, the, the, the flat bronze kind
of kind of coming lower. And, and you keep like, it's
the, it's the spot that's the marginal stuff there.
And and you get, you know, if the spot's still in the market,
then heck, you have even higher margins for that if you're part
of the really low cost stuff with the right technology that
that's what I believe their view could be at the moment.
Yeah, the smack over. That's what I was trying to say.
The smack over. Yeah, fulfilled bronze.
The the interesting thing will be to see what they if if like
Fast forward a shit load if this did happen, what they did with
the spot like like you'd say Mount Catlin's probably pretty
immaterial to the whole of. Arcade they declared that non
core. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
But you look at the James Bay stuff, it's like, would that be,
is this? Could you assure him, right.
If this happens, they'd probably flog James Bay off and
spodumain. Hard Rock is not a focus and
that sort of feeds into the narrative as well.
Why they didn't go for Albemarle?
Because Albemarle is good chunk of value is green bushes yeah
and a bit of Wodgina which they're a non operator at and
it. Could it could be very
spodumainy, Yeah. And my like, like I think
there's I think there's a potential there like for for
sure. And if you look at what
Arcadium's announcements have have been in the last few
months, they've actually been substantially to you know,
minimise their marginal expenditure on any of their spot
projects. So started in in August, they
basically announced that that they pause, pause their spend on
on their Galaxy mine in James Bay.
And then a month later they declared that they pause the cut
back at Mount Catlin and that was non core do an asset in
James Bay. They're looking for a partner to
even fund the fund the rest of that now.
So, you know, those are kind of steps that maybe dress the
company up to be even more attractive for an eventual deal
with Rio Tinto in that sense. So I can I could I could get on
board with that logic. I also think like Arcadium's
brine assets are in Argentina, not not Chile, right.
And you know, the CEO of Rio Tinto, he Yakab, he used to live
in Argentina when he worked for Shell.
You know, he's, it's a familiar jurisdiction that we're
comfortable enough to, to buy a ring on.
You had the regime change there, which is supportive of of of
investment of mining investment all of a sudden with the Malay
government. At the same time, if you
acquired like Albemarle, you're getting outsized exposure to the
to the Atacama in Chile, where there's some uncertainty on how
the the royalty regime might evolve in the post twenty 30s
there. I don't quite remember what the
what happens then, JD, what is it?
Well. That the mine permit is mine,
which became a a big point of discussion not too long ago.
And yet you've heard a lot more in recent times about Chile
wanting to build out a Cadelco of lithium.
So a deal earlier this year, they paid 3 or $400 million to
to scoop up some assets there as well.
So I think that people have been a bit more risk off on Chile,
operating in Chile. Is the would the royalty be
different in Argentina than Chile because you'd say the cost
curve like the Atacama ones that SQM and Albemarle are the lowest
cost producing assets. But in terms, I think it's like
the all in cost of it is the other end of the spectrum for
what Albemarle actually get because of the huge royalty that
goes to Chile. Yeah, everywhere's got its own.
Sort of problems, the royalty regime is different but remember
for a long time the challenges in Argentina, we're not being
able to actually get the cash out of the country.
There's capital controls. So that's all you know
supposedly in the works to improve.
That's why BHP has invested a huge amount of money, then the
London group have gotten comfortable.
These things are apparently on on a changing trajectory for the
better. But.
I think we're going to put an interview up either tomorrow or
Friday, but we spoke with Hugh Mackay and and he talked about
this dynamic that oftentimes, you know, big kind of countries
will have where they're like receptive to wanting investment.
So they'll give some sweetheart deals to kind of encourage
mining companies to to actually invest.
But then those in the long run is more investment kind of comes
in because the first move is demonstrated it was OK.
Then all of a sudden those early, those early like
agreements actually kind of create conflict because then it
seems unfair and it kind of creates this unrest.
I think with Chile, there's something like that that's sort
of happening around the twenty 30s.
I need to get more information about it.
But yeah, he explicitly, explicitly mentioned something
there. Is it, it was interesting to
look at the look at the watchlist today and it sort of
happened, didn't happen right at the starter trade, but like
lithium is they're all tearing like I think God.
Everything Linetown was up almost 20%.
Yeah, like, you know, Wildcat 28%, like, you know, pay made
up. It wasn't up as much, but yeah,
like huge, huge moves. But the underlying splodge main
price has not changed. Hasn't changed any, any frios
view is actually, you know, bullish, bullish Brian bearish
spot. Then again, that sort of what's
a question mark over that spot? And if they want to do this deal
and it's all on no commodity price movement and potential,
you know M&A and everything, this looks like it had time up
for a bit. This would be a big deal to DD
was yeah, to get through, to get over the line.
And we're at the start of the potential frigging price
negotiation of it. And I remember people telling us
maybe a month or so ago, a bit less than a month ago when all
this news came out of cattle in, in China and they said you're
not going to see the the prices move straight away.
But give it sort of three or four weeks and they'll move
because we saw the futures jump up, you know, the GFX ones jump
up 8 sort of percent. But we're here now 3 or 4 weeks
later and all the indications we've got from granted not the
most transparent of pricing is that it hasn't actually moved
yet and it's still around usus 750 to 806% so.
There's a comment there to like, you know, at least Rio Tinto's
embarking on counter cyclical M&A for once.
Like they had to be commended for that.
Like, you know, yeah, genuinely, you know, it's kind of
surprising to see Rio actually confirmed that they'd bid for
something in what feels like a through.
And certainly on any price chart looks that way.
But there's. Yeah, I'm not, I, I've, I've
come around to the view that there's a lot of merit in in
Arcadia, if you believe the Rio view of the world.
I haven't completely come around to the view that they wouldn't
subsequently look at Albemarle down the track, too.
I think there is a consensus view out there.
There's more pain on the horizon for Albemarle.
A lot of debt, a lot of debt. Like, you know, there's.
Yeah. It'll be interesting to see how
things unfold for that company over time.
And there might be, you know, a more opportunistic moment for
Rio, like if you could scoop up both Albemarle and and and
Arcadium, that gives you a pretty commanding position in
this market. I understand that the fully
integrated, like the fully integrated kind of lithium
production is, is what is really attractive to to Rio as well.
You know, they, they're less attractive to just sort of
having only upstream. They love the integration part
of it. They want value across the value
chain. They've done sort of similar.
They had a similar strategy in aluminium historically and it
looks like they've done technical work sort of along
that value chain as well. I think and the the Hulk Braun
and DLA and whether it's all field Brauns, everything that's
it's it's resembles iron ore in a way, high CapEx, long life,
low cost, whereas spodumene besides green bushes maybe like
they they aren't that as long a lot like the bronze will just
they're freaking huge. Yeah, the beautiful thing about
what made iron ore such a phenomenal commodity to be in is
that you, you, you could have the majors produce it, you know,
the teens dollars per tonne. And then the price was, was
always underpinned at a much higher like price never
gravitated down that way because you had higher cost production
out of out of China. You just had some high cost out
of, you know, India and Brazil was high cost and also like W
Australia had other high cost producers, which was
sufficiently large that it kept the marginal production and
hence the, you know, the price floor, it was way, way, way
higher. So you could have phenomenal
margins if you'd sunk the rail and you could produce it a
really low cost and a decent deposit lithium.
Time will tell what that cost curve looks like.
VHP is too scared because they think it'll be too flat in the
long run. Rio.
Rio looks like actually thinks it could be a lot steeper
because they think that the brine with DLE could actually
come even lower, which gives you more margin if the marginal
producer is is spot. Yeah, yeah.
Do you do you think there's ever a chance Albemarle to dress
themselves up, would spin out their Hard Rock and separate
that from their broadband and converters?
You got a non controlling interest in green bushes and
watching making up over half your value.
You know, if you kind of use IGO is a bit of a, a proxy of the
value. It's an interesting type of
proposition. I think that in itself could be
something, you know, such a deterrent for enough of a
deterrent for, for Rio right to to spend that much money and not
be in control. Yeah, that's what I mean.
What if they spun it out? Yeah.
And then made the brine and the brine and converter yeah,
vehicle as the one that. I was looking at more from the
Rio, more from the lens of who would be interested in buying
the Hard Rock. Maybe that's the bit that
becomes Album. The end of the day, Green Bush
is just like competitive with the lowest cost Bryans.
It's yeah, it's a phenomenal kind of like yeah asset from
every stretch of the imagination.
I wouldn't be surprised to see album.
I'll keep selling stuff like looks like they're yeah, selling
everything they can. They've got some real sort of
balance sheet stress. So let's let's see what pops out
of there kind of stress over time.
Maybe you can maybe maybe some other companies can pick up
interesting assets that pop out of there and maybe what's left
is actually interesting to Rio. If it's mostly Brian that could,
that could be interesting. What about getting a deal done
mate? Yeah, I'm a basketball.
I do. I think the leak complicates
things and but I do think a deal can get done here.
I've like if it doesn't get done, then we've got to have a
conversation about how by three O and BHP suck at getting deals
done. This they'd be they'd be like 2
late large measures that they just couldn't do I.
Think I think they'd call that discipline mate.
Unless. They're not getting.
A deal done at stupid prices, yeah.
I, I think, I think both Rio and Arcadium are motivated to do
this deal. The big question, it's just
going to come come down to an agreement on price and you know,
you can hear how the shareholders think about that
based on what what Mike had to say.
But like I said, the last few months of announcements out of
Arcadium to me look like they are making their portfolio more
attractive to, you know, what, what Rio likes about the company
as in a sort of pausing incremental spend on the things
that are less interesting to them.
But there's still a risk that it slips away, right.
Like you said, the market cap even after the 45% uplift is 3.3
billion, yet the, the, the rumoured deal that like value
that's going around is four to six.
So the markets clearly pricing in a substantial risk that the
kind of deal falls off. At the same time, there's like
room for an uplift there again, if, if the deal eventuates.
So the market's not sure, right? And I, I think it, it could go
either way. Like, yeah, these things are at
the margin a lot harder to get over the line when once they've
leaked because you have shareholders sort of.
Bloody podcast talking about. It exactly totally yeah like
there's no shortage of of views and but I also look at the the
register of Arcadium and bring it up there that's a that's a
beautiful register to get a deal done there's there's no blocking
stake there from like a a shareholder that's got stars in
their eyes there's heaps and heaps of passive money there
there's. And there's a lot of like, you
know, it's just, it's just a beautiful share shareholder
registry of 1 to 2% interest here and there.
So in terms of actually like the execution side of things, like
it's going to be hard to get a block of shareholders there to
sort of fight against it. I think, I just think, I think
there's a, there's motivation, there's a history here, I think
of wanting to actually create this marriage over a longer
period of time. I think the, the, the Rio can
clearly actually see value at these levels for once.
Just depends like are they, are they both going to get enough of
an uplift that shareholders are happy at the same time, you
know, Rio still sees value. That's TBA, but I I think a deal
is very doable. All cash.
You just show script from Rio? Or do you reckon Rio?
I I, I think that's the most likely thing you would see, but
I think script is an easier sell to shareholders because they get
the rollover relief on it and they, you know, yeah, it would
be like, I actually think Rio. Oh.
So so that happens it that's America as well.
Rollover relief with script is it?
I think you can get you. Have to apply for it.
Yeah, it's not. It's not a given, but yeah.
Cold. Would they have any?
So. Anything to roll over?
Yeah, like, yeah, I mean, I mean, what do you mean by that?
The. Isn't rollover relief for
capital gains? Capital gains, yes.
Would they be capital gains? Yeah.
They went in the IPR. Yeah, holding it from Galaxy
days. Yeah, well.
You know it would have been up to hold it for a while.
Yeah, yeah. It's a fairpoint, but yeah, I
would like if I were a shareholder and I would, I think
script kind of makes the deal easy, but I think it's just
unlikely. You know, he's got heaps of
cash. They should spend that cash on
what I think is a creative way to spend it in this deal, yeah.
This has been a winner for the investment banks as well.
Year after year there's a deal with if you've latched yourself
onto to Galaxy or a Cobra or something like that.
I mean remember the the fees involved in the last one was my
mind blowing. They were the biggest fees I'd
ever seen for a deal of that size.
L can and live in merger. I think we put up the scheme,
Doc. It was like the north of US 150,
yeah. It was something obscene for a
merger. I just put a bit of food on the
table, got A and mentioned it before.
But it interesting that because if you collate the rumours going
around like maybe Royale by Pilbara, maybe Royale by
payment, right? Like this is change and whether
this opens up a lot of different parties for those.
And it's just so interesting that none of the other majors,
obviously we mentioned BHB, but we haven't seen Glencore Anglo.
They've got enough problems of their own, but none of the other
big guys have shown any interest.
We're doing a a lithium deal that's a.
No, Glencore did have interest in there was.
No trading, wasn't it? They were rumoured to want to
pick up Bald Hill and IPO it for a billion dollars.
If you could pick up that for pocket change, you'd do it.
And, and capitalists, yeah, they, they, they, they are,
their lithium trading business has been incredibly profitable
and they're looking to grow that.
Yeah, yeah. I'm sure they'll get creative if
there are some distressed opportunities out there and they
might end up, yeah, learning to own in some, some instances,
yeah. If there if there's enough value
that they'd do it, but that hasn't exactly presented itself
in in lithium land just yet. Bloody very, very interesting.
I think it bloody for because this day to day process is going
to be frigging huge. Mandatory CRE insurance, a
review of all these bloody 10 assets you talk about, JD.
Took the words out of my mouth mate.
But you know, when you're that vertically integrated with brine
and chemicals, I need one asset to fall off.
The whole tower comes tumbling down.
You're not vertically integrated anymore.
Go you go, Jodi. Just think Arcade and there's so
much going on, it's so complex. But CRA, they just thrive on the
complexity now. 10 assets, not a problem.
More complex the better. Bloody probably the only way
it's going to get over the line. Rio cross your T's dot your eyes
get bloody CRE insurance to go bloody review these assets for
you. I want to see it in the in the
dock. The takeover dock CRE approved.
That's it. They're happy to go to Japan,
China, Argentina, Canada to doodle.
Keep it every bloody global mining company safe, no matter
what commodity or jurisdiction. JD.
Go CRA. Speaking of oh jeez, yeah anyway
more more negative news, but another W African resources that
have to be the most like if you go through historic massive
drops in a day, it would have to be accumulated the most with all
the coups and. Everything operating in West
Africa. Became a fossa and and today is
one of them tried it down, you know 25% shortly after open then
went into a pause in trading, then reopened.
Yeah, yeah. Then the I guess the the all
around the possibility, scepticism, whatever you want to
call it of nationalising mining and became a fossa, but nothing
confirmed yet, just fear. Yeah.
So that's the that's the sort of drama we're talking about here.
You remember about a month or two months ago we spoke about
potential changes to the mining code.
So not nationalisation, but equally quite worrying for
shareholders. And that one turned out to be a
by the dip moment. So you started by saying,
Maddie, more negative news, but perhaps there is a bit of silver
lining to this one. If you remember that one a
couple months ago now, within a week, the share price had
completely recovered and they just sort of took it in its
stride. So it's worth looking at how
this one's kind of shaping up. A lot of people still digesting
the news. So I think that'll be more to
come in the, you know, the next couple weeks about this one.
It all comes off the back of the military hunter leader Ibrahim
Traore speaking on the the national radio on Saturday.
Essentially what he said about mining.
This was in a, a broader conversation talking about
corruption, talking about the the, the military kind of
challenges in the the North East of the country.
But there was a segment on mining and potentially pulling
the permits of some foreign operators.
So this was then covered by Reuters and all these other sort
of publications. There was a sort of quote that
particularly stood out. I will just read it out now we
know how to mine our gold and I don't understand why we are
letting multinationals come in and mine it.
So again, he didn't name any companies specifically but of
size in Bikini you've got Wolf who we're talking about today,
but overseas you've got Endeavour Nord Gold, they're
Russian group as well as Ozone. So it's worth mentioning these
these couple other operations because I think they might cut
come relevant in a little bit. But Bongu and Waggon Yon.
Not sure if I'm pronouncing that one right.
Definitely got that right. Thank you, gents.
But these assets were previously owned by Endeavour.
There was a transaction with Lilium Mining in 2023.
This led to a bit of a dispute in which the government came in.
They now own it. The government has scooped up
these assets. They've said they'll pay
Endeavour US $60 million by the end of the year.
Now we just put a pin in them for now, but I think they could
come relevant in terms of companies acting in line with
the the mining code. But like we sort of said at the
beginning, is, is a by the dip moment.
That's the kind of big question people are trying to answer
here. And the investors that are
familiar with West Africa, they've invested in West African
miners before. They will have seen this stuff
hundreds of times before. It happens, you know, across the
continent many times a year. So off in that trading pause
that you mentioned, Maddie came out with an update as well, just
a simple one page trying to alleviate the fears of
shareholders. And I actually think they did a
a bit of a decent job at it. If you see in the the course of
sales for those listening in, shares closed at $1.66 on
Friday. They opened today at $1.30
before trading downwards to $1.24.
Then they went into a 80 minute pause in trading in which this
announcement came out. West African just took the
stance that they have adhered to everything.
They've got a good relationship with the government.
They've won a couple awards for being the best operators in
country. And there was a segment here
that specifically stood out to me talking about this being a
stance against miners who have not adhered to the mining code.
So that leads to people pointing fingers to those couple
operators before and perhaps some actions that, you know,
we're not quite aware of, but other type of operators who
haven't followed the letter of the law and paid the taxes they
need to pay and these sorts of things and.
Right. I'm so keen to go deep on those
two projects that you talk that you mentioned there, which were
previously owned by Endeavour. Endeavour Yeah, there's some
juicy word on the decline about what happened there.
There is some very juicy word on the decline.
So that Lilium Group is owned by a Lilium Capital, which is also
from Burkina, which is all tied to this one bikini businessman.
And there was. He accused Endeavour of not
revealing all that needed to be revealed in the sales process.
And then essentially Endeavour said you haven't paid us the
money you said you'd pay. And the Bikini government tried
to step in and mediate that. Overlay that with the departure
of Endeavour's. Former CEO.
Former CEO as well in an unexplained transaction.
It's just a whole. There's a whole story there that
is not being published in the the local media reports.
I can guarantee that. Just to the point on how the
West African response had been taken by the market.
They went into that pause of trading $1.24, they came out
$1.37. So it looked like investors
also. There's like 80 minutes for
people's to sort of mall over and see what what's actually at
risk here, what's going on and they seem to like it.
It's sort of trading in and around that level at the the
time where recording on volume. That's a good few multiples of
the average daily trading multiples.
So a lot still to digest as we've kind of spoken about West
African a bunch in the past, you know by 2026 four 160,000 oz,
you know on sort of conservative numbers that could be a bit
under a billion dollars in EBITDA, bit over 600 in free
cash for a $1.5 billion Business Today.
So it's just how you kind of tie a number to the risk of
operating in this country and. They, I think they get tainted
by like Burkina Faso is decent size, so there's different parts
of Burkina Faso, but they get tainted as everything that
happens in Burkina Faso taints the whole of Burkina Faso.
Yeah. And it's it is not the case.
It's, it's similar with Mali as well, but you like
geographically as you're kind of explaining it there, Maddie, the
northeast of the country, the north of the country is, you
know, a much more challenging and dangerous place to to
operate. So, and that was again, that was
another thing that was addressed by the the military junta in
their announcement on Saturday, how they're going about making
the country safer and removing the terrorist groups that that
sort of reside in the the north of the country there.
So the one of the things to look out for if you're a Wolf holder
interested in this company is that.
OJC is, by the way, Ding. Ding for Ding, Ding, Ding.
Yeah, the the mining code potential changes that hasn't
played out yet. So that was going from a 10%
free carried interest for the government up to 15.
And what Wolf said at the time was that they believe they are
grandfathered in that system and that former 10% rate will apply
to them. There was no confirmation from
the government that that that is in fact true.
So we'll have to sort of wait and see how that kind of plays
out in time. That's one to keep your eyes on
as a as a wolf holder or somebody interested there.
But you know, As for what's happened sort of today, I'm keen
to see what Endeavour does when they trade overnight kind of
Canada, if they're hit as severely, they're a bit more
sheltered in that they're not just a pure play Bikina minor
like W African is. But yeah, we'll see if this
ultimately ends up being a buy the dip situation or not.
I'd say Richard Hodge phone is permanently plugged into power
today. Bloody ringing off the hook.
I'm sure he's handled on a 12 days in his time.
Making a fortune, mate. Right, Next up, So we've seen a
very unexpected backflip from the Takeovers panel in regard to
the proposed ERA entitlement offer, which this is very
interesting, especially to me because you know me.
So brief one for people who don't know when we say, alright,
that's a Jabiluka uranium deposit in NT, £300 million at
.55% uranium decline already to the ore body, Rio owns 86% of
it, just shy of compulsory acquisition.
But to minority shareholders, Packer and Co, 9.3%, Sentry
another 3%. So 25th or so, I'll go through
what happened in the lead up and where, where we are today.
So on 25th of September, the that's when the takeovers panel
declined to conduct proceedings from the application by Packer
and Carl and Zemtree about Rio wanting to raise $880 million
via an entitlement offer at Point OO 2%.
So essentially, if the minority shareholders didn't tip in their
pro rata amount and continue riding the pump, rail would go
over 90% and proceed to compulsory acquisition.
And this was then after obviously Prime Minister said
that they're going to incorporate it into Kakadu
National Park and pretty much squash it forever.
Yeah, so. And that that price that they
were going to raise your time, it was just, it was a severe
discount was like 90. I think the the 80 million that
didn't be worth 14 for Yeah. And Carl, something like that.
Was a crazy discount, but that also would have said the
probable acquisition price of the remaining interest as well.
And it actually, yeah, it actually said that the IT says
it right here. Rio intends to proceed with
compulsory acquisition of all remaining ERERI shares at an
offer price of .002. Yeah.
So what then happened after the takeover?
This panel made that initial ruling.
Well, the next day, that's when the minority shareholders when
or say minority are referred to the two.
They wrote to the Takeover's panel to review the decision and
based on today's announcement, it appears because they said
they didn't even conduct the proceedings.
So it appears that they've written to the president of the
Takeovers panel and they have decided that a fair process was
not followed because they didn't even conduct the proceedings.
They just said no, it's not happening.
And based on that, they've now got a independent board
committee that will actually review the application made by
Packer and Co and and Zentry, which was, you know, pretty,
yeah, pretty. It was pretty clear cut that
they said we we do not intend to conduct proceedings.
And now they said, no, we will review the review.
Essentially it's like a bit of a double review.
So and there's. No guarantee that conducting
proceedings would deliver. No, it just means they're
actually, they're now got an independent committee that's
going to actually, because because their whole thing is
their, you are saying like you're not going to conduct
proceedings, you're going to let this entitlement offer go
through when there's actually a federal Court case in play
regarding this and say, hey, can you actually do an entitlement
offer when there's an ongoing federal Court case about what
you know, the Prime Minister and Madeleine King of the decision
they made and the, the interesting facts that came to
light just at the end of last month, about a week ago, was
that so Resources Minister Madeleine King was advised by
her office that prior to making this decision to incorporate it
in the to not extend the permit. The legal challenge was unlikely
because Rio Tinto, the major shareholder, does not support
mining at Jabaluka and they would not fund AR as challenge
because of the public backlash. So The Who she was advised by
clearly missed the point that minority shareholders also have
a say, think that they'll sort of say, oh, Rio Tinto owns the
whole thing and they won't do it.
And ARA pretty much immediately sued them, effectively.
So it was now. The takeover span would
typically have to operate pretty quickly, so we should see an
update in the next few weeks again.
Yeah, I assume they didn't put a timeline on this one.
No, no, not for the review, no. So like, yeah, so there's the
review, but then there's the obviously the the court thing
going on as well. So it's like what I guess what's
the, what's the possibilities if that review comes back in the
favour of the minority shareholders?
Obviously they want the entitlement office squashed for
the moment while the Federal Court case is ongoing.
They want to drag that. I assume they want to drag that
out as long as possible that because that means they don't
have to stump up the cash yet to stay in the game.
And will it, I've mentioned this before, will it drag on long
enough before the federal election, which is likely going
to be next year? Will that then, if there was a
change, see that decision to incorporate Jabaluka in the
Kakadu National Park Park overturned by a new government?
Lot of balls in the air. But because it is a renounceable
entitlement, which means that the minority shareholders can
find some other parties to take up their entitlement to stay in
the game. But you know, while there's a
court case going on, it's pretty fucking hard to do that when
when they did the investor sounding and the only person
that wanted the only company that wanted to tip in was Rio
Tinto. So could be another fund.
But don't forget old buddy. Yeah, like someone like a boss
energy as well, because they were putting in a bid before all
this decision happened. So who who knows, like, you
know, propose they'll propose in a free carried interest for the
mirror people. I just don't.
I think this is far from over. It's juicy, juicy story.
Drag on. Yeah, see where it goes.
It's very interesting. It's and, and because the whole,
the whole critic of the, the whole process for this rehab is
just like the cost of the rehab is just being astronomical for,
for Ranger. I'll just, I'll just think of
the shareholder money that could have been saved for the
minorities if bloody race and Australian Earth movement and
haulage were doing it for him. Geez, they'd do it economically,
wouldn't they? Bloody Packer and Cowan's entry
be in much a better spot if the bloody race was up there on his
D sixes and D eights and even. Rio.
Trucks and trailers mate, Rio would be mate, they'd be able to
actually afford to pay a bit more for arcadium because they
would have saved this much on the rehab.
Yeah, like tell you what anyway, but luckily we're.
Doing a Rio Tinto version of Rehab, not a not a nimble miner.
Man, but that's the thing race and IAH can actually do a Rio
Tinto quality job. Yeah, quality at a like a a
small cap price effectively. That's that is unparalleled
expertise in earth moving and haulage.
So lucky for all you mining companies out there, race and
IAH are not consumed by Rio Tinto at the moment and
available right now for make clearing for construction,
drilling, building dams. Rehabilitation works post mining
which they could have done at Jabaluka Bloody.
Right now I can just call them up.
Right, that easy? Do you want to do it?
You can call him right now if you want.
Quick, quick break. JD just called him and he picked
up. Easy as that.
Say it Very Yeah. Oh, Oregon.
It's bloody cool. That is a very very interesting
survey. Super keen.
I'm in. The history already up to today
is sort of mind bogglingly fascinating, so we'll see where
it goes from here and what kind of happens.
I think you might be right. I think there might be a little
bit left in this one, so wait and see.
Looking at like I was reading a little bit over the weekend
about the, the Betaloo gas basin in the NT and that's got mad,
mad support behind. Yeah, there's kind of like
onshore gas projects sort of getting up off the ground in, in
the NT and like it's kind of confusing.
Why Like why can't, Yeah, why there's sort of support for some
projects and others. I mean, we've heard about the
like the, yeah, tremendous amount of like solar projects
that kind of got off the ground and got approved in, in very
short order and all the territory as well.
Don't know mate. There's some some some some
forms of fucking. Some forms of projects are easy
to to happen and others just get squashed.
Maybe, maybe it's all is good in NT because of the wet season and
everything so the IT washes the dust off the solar panels what
you don't need to wash them. So it just shows you how
important efficient managing that, you know, social licence
is right from the off, you get to sort of manage it.
If you like the project you just mentioned, you know how good,
Like if you've got the people on your side, you've got the people
in power on your side as well, then yeah, you got a much
clearer line of sight to actually producing and returning
money for your shareholders. And I think this was the first,
this was the first of like the what would you say what the, the
flow on of traditional owner mining news stories before, like
this was officer before the Mcfillimmys thing.
Because the, the, the thing at the start was though, it was
like there was 2 sets of people talking to each other.
You got the Prime Minister talking to the obviously the
leader. But then like the you got that
sounded like ARA, like the the you hear that the mirror people
are all for free carried interest, but the leaders not
like there's just so much divide in a lot of these stories.
Obviously Mcphillimy's was a bit different.
It was just a a rogue, a rogue. I think it's a section that
wasn't a leader, I think. It's like these this the
Mcphillimy's was Section 10 review.
I'm not sure if that was the same thing with Jabaluka I.
Didn't. No, no.
This was its lease coming up. For exactly, Yeah, I know.
But the whole whole thing of like, you know, boss putting
forward a, a proposal for a deal and then they're like not prime
minister's like nuts going into the National Park and we're
squashing it forever. Yeah, it's yes, very.
That's been one of the more topical things this year is
Australian native title. And sovereign risk, it's been
described as yeah, it's yeah. It is very much so.
Yeah. Call it a day, gentlemen.
That's bloody. She's been a RIP snorter to
start the week. Tell you what, got some minutes
out today. Action packed.
Oh, surely since we've been doing this, someone's called MMS
for a contract like there's Yeah, they're at least probably
getting one an hour because who else would you call to move to
get? Him where we can.
I don't know who else would you call to build a donger for you
then Grounded Construction Group and mate Timmy Taylor Jeezy can
whip up a bloody hybrid power station quick as anything with
cross boundary energy. Dave Sandvik, Ground Support,
CRE Insurance, Rio, Get Onto Them, Greenlands Equipment,
Turnkey Mine, Water Management, K Drill, the Drilling Experts,
MMTS, Australian Earthworks and Haulage and good old Spark
Charts. Odorow Chance.
Odorow. Information contained in this
episode of Money of Mine is of general nature only and does not
take into account the objectives, financial situation
or needs of any particular person.
Before making any investment decision, you should consult
with your financial advisor and consider how appropriate the
advice is to your objectives, financial situation and needs.