1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:04,440 Righto buddy Miners Thursday, nearly the bloody weekend it's. 2 00:00:04,920 --> 00:00:06,160 The last day of the week. And for? 3 00:00:06,280 --> 00:00:09,800 US nearly nearly the time that new shits coming out for Axis 4 00:00:09,800 --> 00:00:13,880 mine and technology exciting. Ohh, within the month I can feel 5 00:00:13,880 --> 00:00:16,239 it. I could feel it and I'm excited. 6 00:00:16,239 --> 00:00:18,000 And you'll be hearing it about here first. 7 00:00:18,120 --> 00:00:21,480 No, probably other people have heard it, but like Jesus Christ, 8 00:00:21,480 --> 00:00:23,200 I can't wait. Axis, get on it. 9 00:00:23,440 --> 00:00:26,200 Trusted advisor still on survey instrumentation. 10 00:00:26,200 --> 00:00:27,520 Getting a bit. Sleepless at night, Maddie. 11 00:00:27,520 --> 00:00:30,000 Oh, I'm so excited. No, oh not. 12 00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:32,840 I'll need to get an MMS JV so I'll get 8 hours sleep. 13 00:00:33,800 --> 00:00:35,280 People will. Understand that tomorrow. 14 00:00:35,520 --> 00:00:38,000 You'll understand that tomorrow, right? 15 00:00:38,320 --> 00:00:40,640 What do we got where revisited min Reds a bit. 16 00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:44,040 They've poor bastards continue to get hammered on the share 17 00:00:44,040 --> 00:00:47,240 price. 31 bucks today. Far out bloody times can. 18 00:00:47,560 --> 00:00:52,760 The tide can turn very quickly. Coronado also hammered today. 19 00:00:53,280 --> 00:00:56,440 Yeah, a bit more of their their own kind of doing there did get 20 00:00:56,440 --> 00:00:58,000 whacked around by some weather events. 21 00:00:58,000 --> 00:01:00,240 So it's come off the back of a production downgrade. 22 00:01:00,360 --> 00:01:04,760 Yeah, Jay, say you're getting into the world of bauxite. 23 00:01:04,840 --> 00:01:06,280 Go Honda Queensland. Maddie. 24 00:01:06,280 --> 00:01:09,680 Maddie Metro Mining get going on mate. 25 00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:12,440 You are diversifying away from the merchants and I love it. 26 00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:14,560 Diversifying. I love it. 27 00:01:15,120 --> 00:01:19,360 That's a diversified ATF. And mount Catlin use out of 28 00:01:19,360 --> 00:01:21,320 mount. Catlin proposed care and 29 00:01:21,320 --> 00:01:24,560 maintenance next year. So right, let's lay her away. 30 00:01:24,960 --> 00:01:28,000 Me and Rez bring up the bring up the Spark chart. 31 00:01:28,000 --> 00:01:30,920 I think we've got a spark replay of I guess what's happened to 32 00:01:30,920 --> 00:01:32,880 the stock. But yeah, 31 bucks today. 33 00:01:34,080 --> 00:01:37,360 Yeah, poor Jesus Christ, considering the highs of 80 odd 34 00:01:38,360 --> 00:01:41,000 last year, yeah. I think it I think it touched 35 00:01:41,000 --> 00:01:43,200 90. Yeah, it was, it was pretty 36 00:01:43,200 --> 00:01:45,680 pretty. It's fall from grace, but that's 37 00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:48,320 it's leverage, right? I was just going to have a bit 38 00:01:48,320 --> 00:01:51,360 more of a chinwag because I just think it's the most captivating 39 00:01:51,880 --> 00:01:55,400 mining stock at the moment. Like, you know, this is yeah, 40 00:01:55,400 --> 00:01:57,440 like, I mean, we're watching in real time sort of, you know, 41 00:01:57,480 --> 00:02:00,120 billions of dollars of market cap kind of just continue to 42 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:03,400 kind of come off, you know, each seemingly each day or whatever, 43 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:06,480 but. Yeah, the poor Mr Ellison yeah 44 00:02:06,480 --> 00:02:10,320 on Piper is I think going from yeah one and a bit billion down 45 00:02:10,320 --> 00:02:12,200 to 600 million the. Equity of the. 46 00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:16,840 Equity value of mid raise a lot are just huge movements yeah it 47 00:02:16,840 --> 00:02:21,600 hasn't sold any salts doesn't matter till you sell it but but 48 00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:25,440 just on Piper yeah yeah big. Move and I think a few things 49 00:02:25,440 --> 00:02:29,200 have happened since we didn't episode last week on Thursday 50 00:02:29,200 --> 00:02:31,760 because that was the the day that they had their earnings 51 00:02:31,760 --> 00:02:34,680 call and earnings results sort of went out the evening before 52 00:02:35,640 --> 00:02:37,480 the the things that have happened since namely share 53 00:02:37,480 --> 00:02:42,320 price pelted like 30% lower since the the pre earnings close 54 00:02:43,360 --> 00:02:45,760 spark charts pretty you know that was that was a story there. 55 00:02:46,040 --> 00:02:49,360 Second thing, I think that that that's happened since then. 56 00:02:49,920 --> 00:02:53,400 If if you were reading Bloomberg last night, you would have seen 57 00:02:53,760 --> 00:02:57,520 Bloomberg run this story. It says traffic euro struck $400 58 00:02:57,520 --> 00:03:00,080 million cash for iron ore deal with Minrez. 59 00:03:00,440 --> 00:03:04,200 Now it's it's not often we're actually onto a scoop before the 60 00:03:04,200 --> 00:03:06,840 excellent business journals of Bloomberg, but in this case, the 61 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:09,880 readers of our daily email that director special would have read 62 00:03:09,880 --> 00:03:12,920 about this eight days before Bloomberg, because we put the 63 00:03:12,920 --> 00:03:15,720 rumour in our word on the decline section in the directors 64 00:03:15,720 --> 00:03:18,320 special. So just a reminder to, you know, 65 00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:21,000 any of the the listeners out there or viewers out there that 66 00:03:21,160 --> 00:03:24,360 haven't yet done so if you want to get big scoops while there's 67 00:03:24,360 --> 00:03:27,240 still rumours before their Bloomberg News articles and 68 00:03:27,240 --> 00:03:30,080 pause the podcast right now, head to moneyofmine.com. 69 00:03:30,560 --> 00:03:33,320 Put your email in there, click the confirmation email that that 70 00:03:33,320 --> 00:03:35,720 that comes your way and and you'll get our rumours in your 71 00:03:35,720 --> 00:03:37,880 inbox every single morning before they unused. 72 00:03:38,520 --> 00:03:40,880 I'll still love Bloomberg just in case they want to buy us 73 00:03:40,880 --> 00:03:42,880 later. Relationship. 74 00:03:43,240 --> 00:03:47,680 Good, you know. The other thing that's happened 75 00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:51,560 in the last week is I, I always sort of brief bounces on way and 76 00:03:51,560 --> 00:03:55,600 it's, it's you know down US $10 a tonne in kind of no time at 77 00:03:55,600 --> 00:03:58,920 all. It's you know about US $92.00 a 78 00:03:58,920 --> 00:04:03,520 tonne for the 62% fines spot market on the on the index 79 00:04:03,520 --> 00:04:04,600 there. Because it cracked. 80 00:04:04,640 --> 00:04:07,160 It briefly cracked 100 again, didn't it? 81 00:04:07,160 --> 00:04:11,000 But not for frigging long. And you had the there's even 82 00:04:11,000 --> 00:04:15,320 like Chinese media describing the the bounce as irrational. 83 00:04:15,720 --> 00:04:18,399 That's kind of how it's interesting to see that sort of 84 00:04:18,399 --> 00:04:22,560 sort of commentary come out. And I think like it's, you know, 85 00:04:22,560 --> 00:04:25,280 it's important that there's a couple of things got to set the 86 00:04:25,280 --> 00:04:27,880 record straight on from last weeks episode number 1. 87 00:04:27,880 --> 00:04:31,320 I made the unforgivable error of fucking up my currencies 88 00:04:31,560 --> 00:04:34,200 fireable error in in banking that one. 89 00:04:34,200 --> 00:04:37,320 So if my numbers were a bit off to those who are really in the 90 00:04:37,320 --> 00:04:39,440 details because they were off some. 91 00:04:39,560 --> 00:04:42,400 And like, for example, one of the claims I made was the gross 92 00:04:42,400 --> 00:04:47,240 drawn debt was equal to min versus market cap in, in, in, 93 00:04:47,360 --> 00:04:49,680 in, in equity sense. So which which is not right 94 00:04:49,680 --> 00:04:52,400 because I, I had in my head the debt was U.S. dollar denominated 95 00:04:52,400 --> 00:04:56,320 and scratched that, that was oddly denominated well in their, 96 00:04:56,320 --> 00:04:58,880 in their financials. But kind of interestingly, since 97 00:04:58,880 --> 00:05:02,440 the, the, you know, since last week's episode and as, as the 98 00:05:02,640 --> 00:05:06,280 share prices continue to, to, to fall off, that claims not too 99 00:05:06,280 --> 00:05:09,520 far from the truth. Now, if you, if you, if you 100 00:05:09,520 --> 00:05:12,800 throw in the, the $1.8 billion payables into that kind of gross 101 00:05:12,800 --> 00:05:16,640 debt mix, which is a bit cheeky, then then yeah, you, you kind of 102 00:05:16,640 --> 00:05:20,360 that claim kind of stacks up now, which yeah, kind of didn't, 103 00:05:20,400 --> 00:05:22,640 didn't a week ago. But the far more important thing 104 00:05:22,640 --> 00:05:25,680 though, is than than just, you know, that silly kind of ratio 105 00:05:26,440 --> 00:05:29,720 is just, is just min res's ability to service their debt, 106 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:31,440 right? Like that's what kind of that's 107 00:05:31,440 --> 00:05:33,720 what the market kind of cares about is they're going to be 108 00:05:33,720 --> 00:05:35,440 able to are they going to be able to service their debt and 109 00:05:35,440 --> 00:05:37,120 they're going to be able to generate the free cash flow to 110 00:05:38,280 --> 00:05:42,040 to, you know, to to pay this big, big growth kind of mining 111 00:05:42,040 --> 00:05:44,120 stock story that, you know, that they that they sort of envisage 112 00:05:44,120 --> 00:05:46,240 for themselves. And, and I suspect the share 113 00:05:46,240 --> 00:05:48,320 price movement of the last week has has had a lot to do with 114 00:05:48,360 --> 00:05:51,680 with recalibrations in this respect, sort of estimations 115 00:05:51,680 --> 00:05:56,240 from my side in the street. Just just in in relation to 116 00:05:56,240 --> 00:05:57,880 this. I think, I think, you know, 117 00:05:57,880 --> 00:06:00,760 everyone seems to to be so bearish. 118 00:06:00,760 --> 00:06:05,040 I and all kind of all of a sudden too and and you know and 119 00:06:05,040 --> 00:06:07,560 that's just that's just kind of everywhere you look people 120 00:06:07,560 --> 00:06:10,360 everyone just talking about how bearish they are and all kind of 121 00:06:10,680 --> 00:06:13,000 sort of all all happened at once pretty quickly there. 122 00:06:13,920 --> 00:06:17,600 And I've seen some numbers in the street forecasting means 123 00:06:17,640 --> 00:06:21,320 peak net debt to EBITDA reach 6.8 times in in FY25. 124 00:06:21,320 --> 00:06:23,920 It's pretty pretty hefty. But you can imagine just how 125 00:06:24,200 --> 00:06:28,080 sensitive like that ratio is to any changes in commodity price 126 00:06:28,080 --> 00:06:30,960 because that that hits you, you actually, but during the day. 127 00:06:32,040 --> 00:06:36,080 And I think finally, I thought it'd be worth just sharing a 128 00:06:36,080 --> 00:06:38,000 couple of tweets I've seen the last few days. 129 00:06:38,960 --> 00:06:40,880 As you know, there's a few kind of doing the rounds. 130 00:06:41,240 --> 00:06:44,640 You've got Emmanuel debt he posted today. 131 00:06:44,640 --> 00:06:48,080 Never underestimate how quickly the market can rage quit and 132 00:06:48,080 --> 00:06:50,680 over leveraged cyclical when the tide goes out. 133 00:06:51,800 --> 00:06:55,920 So is is that sound? Like when it is when it turns, 134 00:06:55,920 --> 00:07:00,240 it turns freaking quickly and like, yeah, destructively. 135 00:07:00,520 --> 00:07:03,760 Yeah, it's and I mean his point there is an over leverage 136 00:07:03,760 --> 00:07:07,280 cyclical and like I think that's a fair characterization because 137 00:07:08,440 --> 00:07:12,800 yeah, like because they're the the the leverage is, is what it 138 00:07:12,800 --> 00:07:15,000 is, you know, picking up whatever 6.8 times if that 139 00:07:15,000 --> 00:07:18,680 numbers are out or whatever. Like it just because there's so 140 00:07:18,680 --> 00:07:20,640 much dead in there. Like we we know leverage 141 00:07:20,640 --> 00:07:23,040 amplifies the upside when the times are good, but also 142 00:07:23,680 --> 00:07:26,280 amplifies the downside. It's and that and that point's 143 00:07:26,280 --> 00:07:29,920 kind of teased out in this this next week from David Beth and 144 00:07:29,920 --> 00:07:31,200 Jones. He goes what it looks like when 145 00:07:31,200 --> 00:07:34,760 the balance sheet is, is more your problem rather than just 146 00:07:34,760 --> 00:07:36,320 the commodity price moving around. 147 00:07:36,320 --> 00:07:39,600 And this is a really interesting chart because sort of indexes, 148 00:07:40,000 --> 00:07:45,600 you know, Rio BHP Champion 9 FMG to Terra Min Res all to the 62% 149 00:07:45,600 --> 00:07:48,680 kind of fines price. And you know, you can in the 150 00:07:48,680 --> 00:07:52,640 kind of indexes the most in sort of 2022 and it's it's pretty 151 00:07:52,640 --> 00:07:55,520 stark what you can see there is like this just absolutely kind 152 00:07:55,520 --> 00:07:59,840 of amplified downside response in the latest kind of trend 153 00:07:59,840 --> 00:08:03,640 downwards in the in, in on oil price and that's just that's 154 00:08:03,640 --> 00:08:05,480 leverage to the downside. Yeah. 155 00:08:05,560 --> 00:08:07,880 How much do you reckon is what are you, what are you 156 00:08:07,880 --> 00:08:12,120 attributing to the the thoughts that they might have to capital 157 00:08:12,120 --> 00:08:14,920 rise to get themselves out of it being? 158 00:08:16,160 --> 00:08:19,240 Is there a bit of that being attributed to the sell down as 159 00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:21,280 well or what? What's the talk on the street? 160 00:08:22,000 --> 00:08:26,000 I mean, maybe like I don't, I, I don't know if they, if you, if 161 00:08:26,000 --> 00:08:28,800 your first protocol is, is a cap raise, you'd probably look to, 162 00:08:29,080 --> 00:08:31,320 you know, address some of those sell down opportunities that we 163 00:08:31,320 --> 00:08:34,880 discussed last week as opposed to to cap raise straight away. 164 00:08:34,880 --> 00:08:37,440 So I don't necessarily, I just think it's, it's really like 165 00:08:37,440 --> 00:08:40,679 everyone's, everyone's looked at the, the earnings numbers and 166 00:08:40,679 --> 00:08:42,799 everyone's got got me thrown off guard. 167 00:08:42,919 --> 00:08:45,480 No one kind of all the operating cash flow was basically just 168 00:08:45,600 --> 00:08:50,520 trade payables build up to like the, the, the, you know, there 169 00:08:50,520 --> 00:08:54,640 was a lot to be said for, for the, for the, for the lithium 170 00:08:54,640 --> 00:08:56,720 kind of real, real production numbers and all that sort of 171 00:08:56,720 --> 00:08:57,720 stuff. And, and how that's unfolding. 172 00:08:57,720 --> 00:09:02,400 I think 3 the real the real is the realisations on the 173 00:09:02,600 --> 00:09:05,240 production at at Onslow was probably lower than people were 174 00:09:05,240 --> 00:09:07,400 expecting. Just like what what realisation 175 00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:09,560 were they getting on the, on the index compared to what people 176 00:09:09,560 --> 00:09:11,960 are factoring in and kind of how's all that, that flow in? 177 00:09:12,000 --> 00:09:15,040 But you know, more than any of that, it's just your final price 178 00:09:15,040 --> 00:09:18,240 goes down by 10% in the week like it did well, someone that's 179 00:09:18,240 --> 00:09:23,760 like, you know, got six times like net debt ratio peak 180 00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:26,720 whatever it's gonna it's gonna go down by a lot more than 10% 181 00:09:26,840 --> 00:09:30,200 like because you leveraged. I think you should add .4 was 182 00:09:30,200 --> 00:09:32,840 the the CapEx number. What they still need to spend, 183 00:09:33,000 --> 00:09:37,520 you know, 1.95 billion Aussie over the FY25 was also 184 00:09:37,920 --> 00:09:40,720 substantially higher than what people had estimated. 185 00:09:40,840 --> 00:09:44,560 Yes, yeah, yeah. And there's, yeah, there's, 186 00:09:44,600 --> 00:09:46,960 there's, there's like a bunch of other considerations too, Like 187 00:09:48,160 --> 00:09:51,760 they're not immune from kind of fluctuations in, in FX as well. 188 00:09:51,760 --> 00:09:54,000 I mean, the debt's denominated in a lot of its denominated U.S. 189 00:09:54,000 --> 00:09:56,560 dollars. What happens if if demand for 190 00:09:56,560 --> 00:09:59,040 and all kind of rolls off a bit, then what does that do to the 191 00:09:59,040 --> 00:10:01,600 Aussie dollar and what, you know, when their cost is 192 00:10:01,600 --> 00:10:03,320 denominated Aussie dollars? What does that, what does that 193 00:10:03,320 --> 00:10:05,640 mean for, for men's as well? They can kind of cop it up from 194 00:10:05,640 --> 00:10:08,520 a few different angles. If, Yeah, final demand sort of 195 00:10:09,200 --> 00:10:13,040 Peters out for for extended period of time. 196 00:10:13,400 --> 00:10:15,320 Yeah. So look all eyes on them that 197 00:10:15,320 --> 00:10:19,760 this is maintain the most interesting corporate. 198 00:10:20,520 --> 00:10:23,080 Story would it have to this would have to be the one of the 199 00:10:23,080 --> 00:10:29,200 more critical points of their whole not too up on the min rest 200 00:10:29,360 --> 00:10:33,680 long term history, but this would have have to be one of the 201 00:10:33,680 --> 00:10:38,200 most critical times in their their existence. 202 00:10:39,080 --> 00:10:41,120 While they've been the size they they are for sure. 203 00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:45,040 Well, you think of just the, what is it plus 20% return on 204 00:10:45,840 --> 00:10:48,200 capital invested capital for so long. 205 00:10:48,720 --> 00:10:51,080 They've obviously grown, grown, grown, grown. 206 00:10:51,480 --> 00:10:55,400 But yeah, this is a point where it's just really flipped. 207 00:10:55,480 --> 00:10:58,240 I'd love to know if there was any other time in history of min 208 00:10:58,240 --> 00:11:01,400 res when, when they're under this sort of pressure relative 209 00:11:01,400 --> 00:11:03,760 to the size they are. This would have to be up there 210 00:11:04,000 --> 00:11:07,840 there. Yeah, they've never really been 211 00:11:07,880 --> 00:11:09,640 been of this scale as a company sort of grows. 212 00:11:09,640 --> 00:11:13,440 So if you frame it like that, definitely, I'm sure any company 213 00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:16,640 over a, you know, 30 year history is going to have points 214 00:11:16,640 --> 00:11:19,400 that are touching go, especially in a cyclical industry in which 215 00:11:19,400 --> 00:11:21,040 we're in. You know, you're gonna but 216 00:11:21,040 --> 00:11:25,160 they've become more and more the the owner of mines rather than 217 00:11:25,160 --> 00:11:28,000 just the the person with the contract to operate them. 218 00:11:28,000 --> 00:11:30,280 So that puts them at, you know, more of the whims of the 219 00:11:30,800 --> 00:11:33,480 cyclical prices. What do you think's their first? 220 00:11:33,720 --> 00:11:36,920 Besides selling down those lithium stakes that are doing 221 00:11:36,920 --> 00:11:39,040 nothing? What about on the project level? 222 00:11:39,040 --> 00:11:43,720 What do you think their first port to call to potentially sell 223 00:11:43,720 --> 00:11:47,840 some to get something? What do you think that first 224 00:11:47,880 --> 00:11:50,480 bits are if I mentioned it in the call? 225 00:11:50,480 --> 00:11:52,200 Yeah. If I were them like I wouldn't, 226 00:11:52,280 --> 00:11:55,760 I'd actually, I actually think I'd get Max value by packaging 227 00:11:55,760 --> 00:11:59,040 all the lithium together and selling down 49% of that. 228 00:11:59,040 --> 00:12:00,480 That's what I'd do. Like the whole lot. 229 00:12:01,520 --> 00:12:03,800 As opposed to an, you know an at an individual. 230 00:12:03,840 --> 00:12:05,720 Asset level exactly. Yeah, just call it. 231 00:12:05,880 --> 00:12:09,240 And then it kind of sets you up to the ability to down the track 232 00:12:09,240 --> 00:12:12,560 even sort of spin out your your remaining kind of controlling 233 00:12:12,560 --> 00:12:14,760 interest in that lithium business and things like that 234 00:12:14,760 --> 00:12:17,000 where you could get a a rewrite on, on, on that. 235 00:12:17,000 --> 00:12:20,520 But yeah, I would, I would do a minority sell down of the entire 236 00:12:20,520 --> 00:12:21,880 lithium business. I think that would get Max 237 00:12:21,880 --> 00:12:25,960 value. Is that is that easy enough done 238 00:12:25,960 --> 00:12:31,520 when you've got JV's with Albemarle and gang fan and then 239 00:12:31,520 --> 00:12:33,720 you get into JV on your side as well? 240 00:12:33,720 --> 00:12:34,840 It's. Not easy, but. 241 00:12:34,840 --> 00:12:36,560 Make it a bit complex I would assume. 242 00:12:36,560 --> 00:12:38,440 It's not easy, but it's happened before like. 243 00:12:38,600 --> 00:12:41,360 You'd be the teleson, You'd be the Tianchi. 244 00:12:41,360 --> 00:12:44,200 Sorry, exactly. And Teleson with the 26%. 245 00:12:44,240 --> 00:12:46,560 You'd be the tlar become the tlar. 246 00:12:46,560 --> 00:12:48,600 Yeah, you could. Dominant party partner in that, 247 00:12:48,600 --> 00:12:50,280 though, yeah, as we've learned is important. 248 00:12:50,360 --> 00:12:52,200 Yeah. Yeah, yeah. 249 00:12:53,160 --> 00:12:57,520 TLEA becomes, you know what, Min Well Min Res, lithium, Australia 250 00:12:57,520 --> 00:13:00,640 tie and then yeah, min res are in 51% of that. 251 00:13:01,080 --> 00:13:05,240 Yeah, but the very way they the the random one to lift the 252 00:13:05,240 --> 00:13:08,760 bloody market gap for them is a bloody big humdinger of an 253 00:13:08,760 --> 00:13:12,400 exploration discovery that had that had changed the bloody 254 00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:16,440 thematic probably just need to bloody get drilling and every 255 00:13:16,440 --> 00:13:21,240 driller that's could do it. It's going to be at the 80th 256 00:13:21,240 --> 00:13:24,480 Drill 24 conference. Let's bloody get put a bit more 257 00:13:24,480 --> 00:13:29,680 positivity into it. Perth 15th to 17th of October, 258 00:13:30,040 --> 00:13:30,680 but not. Far. 259 00:13:31,280 --> 00:13:35,320 Away oh mate, I cannot wait to be in a room full of drillers. 260 00:13:35,320 --> 00:13:38,840 I'm going to get a full sleeve tap when I when I rock up mate, 261 00:13:39,000 --> 00:13:42,840 you want to see the latest and most exciting drilling 262 00:13:42,840 --> 00:13:45,440 technology going around. You want to know who the who's 263 00:13:45,440 --> 00:13:48,720 who are in the drilling industry mate, all going to be in run one 264 00:13:48,720 --> 00:13:50,120 room. We're going to be there. 265 00:13:50,200 --> 00:13:53,000 We're all gonna be there. This is gonna be there K drills 266 00:13:53,000 --> 00:13:55,640 gonna be there. You can meet rhino and druba 267 00:13:56,000 --> 00:13:58,560 mate. Bloody CRE insurance is gonna be 268 00:13:58,560 --> 00:14:01,280 there like it's like a bloody sponsor field day for. 269 00:14:01,280 --> 00:14:04,240 US Money Mine Festival I. Think I'm. 270 00:14:04,440 --> 00:14:08,360 I think I'm even doing like a pre start in the morning on the 271 00:14:08,360 --> 00:14:10,320 mic and maybe some panels after lunch. 272 00:14:10,320 --> 00:14:13,040 The lunchtime post post lunchtime panels might be 273 00:14:13,040 --> 00:14:15,040 interesting after. I've had a few points with Druba 274 00:14:15,920 --> 00:14:17,840 but mate link is in the show notes. 275 00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:21,720 Get your tickets 15th to 17th of October and it is going to be a 276 00:14:21,720 --> 00:14:23,680 Corker. Can't wait. 277 00:14:23,800 --> 00:14:26,640 It's bloody. Oh, it's very exciting. 278 00:14:26,640 --> 00:14:29,400 Cheers idea. I love a good, I love a good 279 00:14:29,400 --> 00:14:32,120 conference. I'd rather the conference not to 280 00:14:32,120 --> 00:14:36,040 be in Perth maybe, but. Anyway, who knows, and I'm a as 281 00:14:36,040 --> 00:14:38,240 we know, Ding Ding on on Mens as well. 282 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:40,680 But moving, moving right on from that bit of I. 283 00:14:40,800 --> 00:14:42,080 Thought you're going to say idea. 284 00:14:42,200 --> 00:14:45,280 No. All righty, all right. 285 00:14:46,640 --> 00:14:49,160 Unfortunately not. More positive news, but so. 286 00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:51,600 We need ads to make it like just to lift. 287 00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:53,960 The lift the spirits there's. Just the energy shit. 288 00:14:54,040 --> 00:14:56,840 Ally will be talking about something a bit more positive in 289 00:14:56,840 --> 00:14:59,080 a moment, but we're going to talk about Arcadia and Lithium 290 00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:03,600 first, obviously owners of Mount Catlin following the. 291 00:15:04,520 --> 00:15:05,640 Merger. Merger of mergers. 292 00:15:05,800 --> 00:15:07,120 Exactly. Well, said Maddie. 293 00:15:07,120 --> 00:15:11,040 So yeah, unfortunately Mount Catlin is going on care and 294 00:15:11,040 --> 00:15:12,360 maintenance. I think the writing was kind of 295 00:15:12,360 --> 00:15:14,600 on the wall. After what Paul Graves, the boss 296 00:15:14,600 --> 00:15:18,200 there said around about the time of diggers, just sort of 297 00:15:18,200 --> 00:15:21,600 indicating that these these lithium prices really hurt. 298 00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:26,600 So the the timing of care and maintenance is after they've 299 00:15:26,600 --> 00:15:29,440 completed stage 3 mining and oil processing, which will come in 300 00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:31,680 the first half of next calendar year. 301 00:15:31,680 --> 00:15:35,440 So there's no word on how many jobs are going to go. 302 00:15:35,440 --> 00:15:38,120 They've they've sort of said that they don't intend to close 303 00:15:38,440 --> 00:15:40,560 Mount Catlin. This is care and maintenance. 304 00:15:40,560 --> 00:15:43,440 There will be more details coming at the Investor Day on 305 00:15:43,440 --> 00:15:45,360 the 19th of September, I believe. 306 00:15:45,360 --> 00:15:48,400 But just, you know, we send our thoughts out to to all those 307 00:15:48,400 --> 00:15:51,880 affected by this obviously a pretty tough time for for 308 00:15:51,880 --> 00:15:54,880 Ravensthorpe and the obviously the the broader mining community 309 00:15:55,280 --> 00:15:58,440 right now, but. Yeah, especially Raven saw 310 00:15:58,440 --> 00:16:00,800 considering first quantum shut as well. 311 00:16:00,960 --> 00:16:03,760 Yeah, now this one. And like, you know, this was how 312 00:16:03,760 --> 00:16:05,920 quick it can turn like they were considering like doing 313 00:16:05,920 --> 00:16:09,040 underground feasibility studies or starting to look down that 314 00:16:09,040 --> 00:16:12,160 road for Mount Catlin. So and it goes from potentially 315 00:16:12,160 --> 00:16:14,800 going deeper to care and maintenance. 316 00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:16,520 It's fuck. Jesus Christ. 317 00:16:16,520 --> 00:16:18,840 Maybe look at how much the independent expert valued Mount 318 00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:20,640 Catlin on when they did the the deal. 319 00:16:21,960 --> 00:16:24,840 It was something like US 600 million bucks or something like 320 00:16:24,920 --> 00:16:25,480 that. Wow. 321 00:16:26,000 --> 00:16:27,600 It's wild because what did it have? 322 00:16:27,640 --> 00:16:29,720 4-4 odd years of mine life, something like. 323 00:16:29,800 --> 00:16:32,920 That, yeah, plus the, you know, potential to go deeper. 324 00:16:32,960 --> 00:16:34,920 Yeah, of course. So I think they're actually 325 00:16:35,000 --> 00:16:37,360 they're going to continue to do that sort of stuff in the 326 00:16:37,360 --> 00:16:39,560 background, but that's not helping anyone right now. 327 00:16:39,560 --> 00:16:41,120 They did wrap a couple numbers around it. 328 00:16:41,120 --> 00:16:45,320 They said this expects to increase net expected cash flow 329 00:16:45,320 --> 00:16:50,080 over 24 and 25 by cumulative approximate US 75 to 100. 330 00:16:50,080 --> 00:16:51,920 So I guess that kind of gives you an indication of how much 331 00:16:51,920 --> 00:16:55,320 money was going out the other way prior to this decision. 332 00:16:55,400 --> 00:16:58,080 I think it you know, taking a step back from Arcadium and 333 00:16:58,080 --> 00:17:01,920 looking at the at the leaf industry more broadly, it is 334 00:17:01,920 --> 00:17:05,920 interesting we're seeing a bit of a supply response now across 335 00:17:05,920 --> 00:17:08,960 the industry. So the numbers were very up and 336 00:17:08,960 --> 00:17:11,599 down at Mount Catlin, you know, over the calendar year 23 is 337 00:17:11,599 --> 00:17:17,880 240,000 tonnes, 5.3% spod. FY24 was sort of circa 130,000. 338 00:17:18,480 --> 00:17:21,800 You know, we've seen I mean res we were talking about just 339 00:17:21,800 --> 00:17:26,760 before Matt Marion that their 50% is going to come down from 340 00:17:26,760 --> 00:17:32,200 220,000 tonnes to 160,000. So there's a step down there. 341 00:17:32,200 --> 00:17:35,680 But on the other hand we've seen pill Gangora that's going up to 342 00:17:35,720 --> 00:17:39,720 825.2% stuff. So that's at 120,000 tonne 343 00:17:40,240 --> 00:17:42,840 increase in the market. Green bushes were talking about 344 00:17:42,840 --> 00:17:46,400 another sort of roughly 100,000 said those ones. 345 00:17:46,400 --> 00:17:48,520 You know, in WA they kind of sound like they're, they're 346 00:17:48,520 --> 00:17:51,240 netting themselves off, but you've got also Mount Holland 347 00:17:51,680 --> 00:17:54,240 adding a few more as they they ramp up. 348 00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:58,720 So things are kind of happening. You know, there are, you know, a 349 00:17:58,760 --> 00:18:01,440 supply response, but it's definitely not even across the 350 00:18:01,440 --> 00:18:05,000 board and it's definitely not what I would have expected to 351 00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:07,800 happen with prices coming off over 90%. 352 00:18:07,800 --> 00:18:10,520 I think there's unfortunately still a bit more to come. 353 00:18:10,520 --> 00:18:12,600 You've got, you know, we haven't even mentioned Kathleen Dowley 354 00:18:12,600 --> 00:18:14,880 still still coming online, you know. 355 00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:16,240 Yes. They haven't even started 356 00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:18,600 stopping yet a lot. I think they've got their open 357 00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:20,760 pit or they're running through at the moment. 358 00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:22,800 I think that they produce 10,000. 359 00:18:22,880 --> 00:18:24,440 First shipment that's going to go out next month. 360 00:18:24,440 --> 00:18:26,480 That's just got announced yesterday, yeah. 361 00:18:27,040 --> 00:18:30,120 I reckon look at that bloody tent there, that the stockpile 362 00:18:30,120 --> 00:18:35,040 of spot it just for when you think about the whole thing, 363 00:18:35,040 --> 00:18:36,840 what they would have went through to get that fucking 364 00:18:36,840 --> 00:18:40,400 flotation working and just everything, just to see that 365 00:18:40,400 --> 00:18:45,960 pile of dirt, you'd be like, oh thank fuck it worked like good 366 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:47,720 on. It's a bit of a win worth, worth 367 00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:49,840 sort of celebrating, but they've got a lot of work ahead of them 368 00:18:49,840 --> 00:18:52,320 obviously and they need a few things to to go in their favour. 369 00:18:52,320 --> 00:18:56,880 So that's the well 130,000 tonne here, but not really moving the 370 00:18:56,880 --> 00:19:00,520 needle in terms of what's coming out of the market. 371 00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:04,080 As you said, I think there's if there's going to be a the supply 372 00:19:04,240 --> 00:19:06,560 response and curtailing, there'd be a lot more to come to 373 00:19:06,560 --> 00:19:09,720 actually affect things from pure supply. 374 00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:11,680 Absolutely. And as we'll get into the 375 00:19:11,680 --> 00:19:13,400 fortunately. Then there's the demand side 376 00:19:13,400 --> 00:19:16,360 too, right and and like it's easy when things are dire, it's 377 00:19:16,360 --> 00:19:19,040 kind of easy to forget that the the demand story for lithium is 378 00:19:19,040 --> 00:19:22,200 still like like as far as comparing all the commodities, 379 00:19:22,200 --> 00:19:25,080 it's still like really freaking like got a tremendous a serious 380 00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:26,240 forecast growth right which. Is. 381 00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:26,960 Oh yeah. Shit. 382 00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:29,320 So, you know, the demand can catch up the supply and catch 383 00:19:29,320 --> 00:19:31,080 people off guard on the other side of things, but it doesn't 384 00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:32,640 look like it's in the short term. 385 00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:34,880 Yeah, yeah. And it's like who can survive? 386 00:19:35,160 --> 00:19:39,200 It's about surviving like to because as soon as you go into 387 00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:43,000 care and maintenance like you're it's the the race start. 388 00:19:43,000 --> 00:19:44,400 Like you can't just turn it back on. 389 00:19:44,680 --> 00:19:47,400 Yeah, and you got to retrench people then you got to re 390 00:19:47,400 --> 00:19:50,440 recruit. And it is such a fucking hard, 391 00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:53,720 like a big decision to make. I reckon Arjun Murdi, who we 392 00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:56,480 spoke with a couple weeks ago, he sort of, you know, put it in 393 00:19:56,480 --> 00:19:58,280 the best words. I really loved how he sort of 394 00:19:58,280 --> 00:20:00,360 expressed obviously talking about oil and gas companies, but 395 00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:03,880 just the contract concept. Of fortress balance sheet and 396 00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:06,480 you want that defensibility when you're in a cyclical industry 397 00:20:06,480 --> 00:20:09,760 and that really, really stood out as a takeaway from that one. 398 00:20:09,760 --> 00:20:11,960 And you know Pilgrim Minerals, yeah. 399 00:20:12,040 --> 00:20:15,360 And for people, yeah, I mean, W farmers have got a big balance 400 00:20:15,360 --> 00:20:17,000 sheet as well for yeah, for Mount Holland. 401 00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:20,840 Silver minerals, is that good? They're still expanding without 402 00:20:20,840 --> 00:20:21,920 dilution. Yeah. 403 00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:23,840 Yeah, exactly. So I'm sure that. 404 00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:27,720 Picture as well or that the graph rather in that the the 405 00:20:27,760 --> 00:20:30,760 city report that came up the other day as well basically 406 00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:35,520 saying yeah, basically saying at current spot pluses only green 407 00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:39,760 bushes kind of marginally makes a bit of money and no one else 408 00:20:39,760 --> 00:20:42,400 does. Yeah, yeah, that's crazy. 409 00:20:42,640 --> 00:20:43,800 That's such a Flack. Oh skirt. 410 00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:46,160 Now if you'd have what? What's making money? 411 00:20:46,160 --> 00:20:51,960 Green bushes and yeah, stuff out of the out of karma like so I 412 00:20:52,000 --> 00:20:53,720 think. I think people will be keen to 413 00:20:53,720 --> 00:20:56,080 hear a bit more and we actually spoke a lot about it in a 414 00:20:56,120 --> 00:20:58,480 interview that we're going to check up tomorrow. 415 00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:01,440 And yeah, one of the the key elephants in the room that we 416 00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:03,880 haven't spoken about is what happens to lipid light 417 00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:07,640 production out of China. And that, you know, we don't 418 00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:10,760 know, but something could happen on that front and it speaks for 419 00:21:10,760 --> 00:21:14,680 a large portion of supply. And you know, as Minarez again, 420 00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:16,960 case in point, things can move bloody quickly in in 421 00:21:16,960 --> 00:21:19,280 commodities. Well, and the consensus was it's 422 00:21:20,120 --> 00:21:23,560 still gone a little bit, a lot of production, yeah, still shit 423 00:21:23,560 --> 00:21:25,360 load of it. Yeah, be surprised. 424 00:21:25,360 --> 00:21:28,040 Like who would have thought that one a year ago that they'd still 425 00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:30,720 be churning out at 700 roughly bucks. 426 00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:32,680 Yeah, that's crazy. I think there's a, there's a 427 00:21:32,680 --> 00:21:35,320 couple other takeaways that are kind of interesting as well. 428 00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:39,640 One perhaps a bit of a smaller one, but NWH or that's the 429 00:21:39,760 --> 00:21:42,840 that's the tick over NRW the the contractor they signed just a 430 00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:47,680 year ago a $332 million three year contract there. 431 00:21:47,680 --> 00:21:51,560 So if you do just a bit of rough maths on their EBIT, EBITDA 432 00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:57,320 margin, that is a $7.5 million loss for the calendar year, a 433 00:21:57,560 --> 00:21:59,480 bit more given not too far into it. 434 00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:04,960 So that kind of is roughly a bit under 5% of their EBITDA for if 435 00:22:04,960 --> 00:22:08,160 you look at the FY24 numbers. So it's a bit of a hit. 436 00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:10,360 They actually haven't mentioned anything about it. 437 00:22:10,360 --> 00:22:12,760 I guess they kind of deem it immaterial at this point in 438 00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:15,640 time. And the other point that I 439 00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:19,640 wanted to talk about is wage pressures, wage inflation or 440 00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:22,560 deflation now across the, the mining industry. 441 00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:24,880 And we'll pick up a chart here that I, that I came across that 442 00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:27,840 I think is really interesting. You can really see that wages 443 00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:28,960 are starting to go the other way. 444 00:22:29,360 --> 00:22:31,760 You know, it's a trend that's really turned since sort of 445 00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:36,000 2020-2021 period. It was, it was only going up and 446 00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:38,960 then very sharply it's, it's pulled the other way. 447 00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:42,760 And I think there's a, a few 2nd order effects of this that we 448 00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:45,040 will see. But you know, first and 449 00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:47,840 foremost, hopefully that allows the the mining companies to have 450 00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:50,880 a bit more breathing room and see themselves through the the 451 00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:53,680 downturn. I think I was speaking to some, 452 00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:56,400 I was speaking to a project manager for a mining contractor 453 00:22:56,400 --> 00:22:59,000 actually the other week and asked this specific question. 454 00:22:59,000 --> 00:23:02,280 I said, have you as there is the ball getting back in your court 455 00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:09,240 yet for wages, because you know, when there was that deficit of 456 00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:12,080 workers and you know, people and it was happening. 457 00:23:12,360 --> 00:23:16,680 I think when I left, like before I left and then it kept going 458 00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:19,720 where, you know, people are getting paid and seen in amounts 459 00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:22,400 of money to go to a new job. And just that was how you 460 00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:25,080 attracted people was buying more to get them from somewhere else. 461 00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:27,920 And once you're at that level, it's hard. 462 00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:30,600 It's very hard for the companies to just say we're just cutting 463 00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:34,000 wages across the board and takes a because then you just people 464 00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:37,960 might leave for somewhere else. But it's at the point now where 465 00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:41,840 you know, people are coming into it's like, look, you're, you're 466 00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:45,600 not as financially important as you once thought you were 467 00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:48,480 sunshine. So you're going to be going back 468 00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:51,440 down to here because you're getting paid this, but you're 469 00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:56,840 performing at this level. So, And so the power has gone 470 00:23:56,840 --> 00:24:01,600 back to the the contractors in the companies, not the actual 471 00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:06,400 workers, which is just a a cycle that will go on for the forever 472 00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:10,600 in time in mining. But that will, yeah, as you 473 00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:13,480 said, there's usually a bit of a delayed response, but then it's 474 00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:17,040 sort of, but it can happen just so quickly when it turns the 475 00:24:17,040 --> 00:24:19,800 other way, so. Yeah, but, and it can be, you 476 00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:23,040 know, it's a bit grim to think about, but it can be wage cuts 477 00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:24,920 across the border, it can be a lot of job cuts. 478 00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:27,760 So there's a few ways to kind of frame it and. 479 00:24:27,760 --> 00:24:30,800 Yeah. And then, but then the when 480 00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:32,760 you've got the job cuts and you've got more people applying 481 00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:37,160 for jobs, you've usually got the you can get them for cheaper. 482 00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:39,280 Yeah, exactly. And pick the cream of the cop 483 00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:40,680 too. Yeah, exactly it. 484 00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:42,600 Was one of the one of the takeaways I had even listening 485 00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:46,320 to the mid race call this week was like, you know, hearing the 486 00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:50,120 apprehension that that Chris has in, in laying off like, you 487 00:24:50,120 --> 00:24:54,520 know, skilled labour because it's the it's the consistency of 488 00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:57,400 the same person rocking up to the same site over a long period 489 00:24:57,400 --> 00:24:58,840 of time that drives the efficiencies. 490 00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:02,960 And so, you know, yeah, I think that just speaks to the more 491 00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:05,480 friction that there is when it comes to putting putting an 492 00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:06,920 asset on care and maintenance things like. 493 00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:09,840 That oh shit, yeah and I and I think a lot of the mid minres 494 00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:13,840 looking from the outside and I think minres is like it's a it's 495 00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:16,480 a bit of a go getter culture a lot there's a certain people 496 00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:20,080 that work there. It's not a bloody, I think it's 497 00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:22,720 a bit different to BHP law. You expected to go there and 498 00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:25,680 bloody work. So when you you lose those 499 00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:28,000 people and then you have to ramp up again if you can't get those 500 00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:30,880 people. And it's retaining that quality 501 00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:36,920 is so important for longevity. But when you're in the not, not 502 00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:41,000 survival mode, but like really austerity sensitive times like 503 00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:44,280 this when you're fucking like, yeah, what do you do? 504 00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:46,200 So. Yeah. 505 00:25:46,520 --> 00:25:48,760 The decision gets made. Bloody morning contractor. 506 00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:50,880 Jeez, that's even worse than bloody iron in the morning, I 507 00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:54,920 reckon. Oh I can't bloody do. 508 00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:59,040 You reckon Mount Catlin would get snapped up? 509 00:25:59,120 --> 00:26:00,200 It's going to ask you that one, Maddie. 510 00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:02,360 What do you reckon? No. 511 00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:06,160 Would they pivot? Would they pivot? 512 00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:08,600 Yeah, that's probably not a bad idea actually. 513 00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:12,400 Rivo bit of infrastructure. There you can repurpose 514 00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:14,160 infrastructure. How would you go about? 515 00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:16,960 It no shame in pivoting the gold or uranium. 516 00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:21,400 Or antimity. Or antimity right well that well 517 00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:25,560 OK, if you're going to go across all niobium or you could go 518 00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:28,000 fucking everyone's chucking a resource of that out at the 519 00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:31,840 moment. Bloody get K drill to start 520 00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:34,680 pepper and holes down there assay for everything. 521 00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:36,920 I think that's the best chance to revive the. 522 00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:39,480 Full elemental. Chart full elemental bloody 523 00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:42,440 analysis. Just bloody assay and diamonds. 524 00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:45,600 Kaydrill ripping them in there the right that'll I reckon. 525 00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:49,880 Kaydrill could be integral for the rebirth of Ravensault, I 526 00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:52,040 think. Go bloody and pinch first 527 00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:56,440 quantum What pinch bloody first? Quantums one down there too, but 528 00:26:56,440 --> 00:26:58,520 nickel usually gold around nickel. 529 00:26:58,800 --> 00:27:01,720 Just start peppering the joint. I think the only way for us to 530 00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:06,320 get out of this glut is K drill expiration. 531 00:27:07,120 --> 00:27:09,840 The money you'd save employing get K drill down there. 532 00:27:10,240 --> 00:27:11,880 You can you pick up man, Caitlin. 533 00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:13,040 Yeah. Exactly. 534 00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:15,880 Go bloody. They're at drill 24 as well. 535 00:27:15,880 --> 00:27:18,840 Go bloody, go mate. And we're actually selling free 536 00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:22,040 tickets. Come have a pint with me. 537 00:27:22,040 --> 00:27:25,080 Druber and Ryan O'Sullivan. We got I'm doing an event. 538 00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:28,240 What a bloody honour. Come back, come meet the guns. 539 00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:31,640 Absolute JC's are blacks. Arsene Diamond drilling experts. 540 00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:33,360 OK, get them down at Ravo. Ravo. 541 00:27:33,360 --> 00:27:37,400 We're trying to get the bloody the ads to keep some positive. 542 00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:40,560 Yeah, it's. Slowly increasing as the show 543 00:27:40,600 --> 00:27:45,600 goes. JC Bauxite. 544 00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:51,000 She's I love bauxite. So this bauxite in Queensland, 545 00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:56,880 So Metro Mining put out a operational update early today 546 00:27:57,120 --> 00:28:03,200 saying they achieved a monthly record of around 700,000 wet 547 00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:06,080 metric tonnes of bauxite shipped last month. 548 00:28:06,080 --> 00:28:11,440 So for the context, Metro is a book site producer in literally 549 00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:16,160 the most far North Point of QLD possible. 550 00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:18,600 What, near like Cape York Peninsula is it? 551 00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:21,760 Yeah, yeah, right. Yeah, so right up there. 552 00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:26,800 And they started mining their their Bauxite Hills mine back in 553 00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:30,080 2018, about six years ago, so. Even the bauxite's probably 554 00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:32,000 dehydrated up there, they'd be sweating that. 555 00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:33,520 Much. Yeah, probably Jesus. 556 00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:35,800 Christ. Oh jeez, they get a bit of rain 557 00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:38,320 here and there up there as well. Yeah, they get a pretty, pretty 558 00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:41,240 mean wet season up there. So and the. 559 00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:45,160 So this increase is largely a result of the fact that they've 560 00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:50,720 expanded the operations there. So now that a lot of this has 561 00:28:50,720 --> 00:28:53,600 been put in place, all these sort of key expansion components 562 00:28:53,600 --> 00:28:57,720 around screening capacity and transshipping capacity, this has 563 00:28:57,800 --> 00:28:59,920 resulted in this increased production capacity. 564 00:28:59,920 --> 00:29:05,560 So August was 13% higher than last month and 29% higher than, 565 00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:07,120 you know, at the same time last year. 566 00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:11,480 And so far they've sort of shipped just shy of 3 million 567 00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:17,120 wet metric tonnes for the year and all those expansion 568 00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:20,360 components I've, I've put into sort of operated at 7 million 569 00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:23,920 tonne per annum, right. Essentially, they've been fully 570 00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:27,600 integrated now and are the operating at or very, very close 571 00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:34,160 to a name plate, which I mean the timing of this is pretty 572 00:29:34,160 --> 00:29:36,960 great. As far as the commodity price is 573 00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:41,680 concerned, I mean bulk site prices, the Aussie benchmark 574 00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:44,920 price is up 48% since January 22. 575 00:29:45,560 --> 00:29:49,560 And you can see here this is sort of a bit of a chart looking 576 00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:54,440 at their daily shipment sort of rates from 22 and 23 in those 577 00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:58,920 sort of grey lines and then now this calendar year 24 in the 578 00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:01,520 orange sort of as they've been moving up there. 579 00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:04,600 Ali, give us a bit of the, the, the back story because Metro's 580 00:30:04,600 --> 00:30:07,160 really interesting one. They had a, you know, as we've 581 00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:08,880 kind of said in the past, they've had leverage on both 582 00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:11,520 fronts, you know, and it's been, it's been quite a journey, but 583 00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:14,200 things have really started to swing in their favour lately, 584 00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:15,680 hey. Yeah, 100%. 585 00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:20,000 So during COVID they had an absolute shocker over time 586 00:30:20,720 --> 00:30:24,000 because as we remember, all the shipping rates, ocean freight 587 00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:28,400 rates were just going through the roof, almost doubling in 588 00:30:28,400 --> 00:30:31,680 some cases. But then you had Australian 589 00:30:31,680 --> 00:30:36,600 bauxite prices essentially flat for, you know, 20/20/21. 590 00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:39,600 They had a pretty, you know, leverage balance sheet. 591 00:30:39,600 --> 00:30:44,040 They had to do a few save raises and dead extensions and, you 592 00:30:44,040 --> 00:30:45,960 know, convert this and that to equity. 593 00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:48,800 It was just pretty full on. I mean, look at the spark chart 594 00:30:48,800 --> 00:30:50,200 here. You know, they went from sort of 595 00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:55,600 as high as $0.12 to mid ones very, very quickly. 596 00:30:56,120 --> 00:31:00,760 But things started to turn around from about last year. 597 00:31:01,480 --> 00:31:04,960 The ocean freight prices really come off. 598 00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:08,880 They've sort of stabilised now. And as we sort of said before, 599 00:31:08,880 --> 00:31:13,320 bauxite prices have have increased a fair bit since two 600 00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:15,120 years ago as well. The. 601 00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:18,240 Market's really tightened there and, and you know, the, the, the 602 00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:22,800 story when you talk to the, the very few bauxite experts out 603 00:31:22,800 --> 00:31:25,440 there and illuminate experts is that, you know, a lot of, a lot 604 00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:29,640 of what, what China had brought online when, when they, you 605 00:31:29,640 --> 00:31:31,960 know, became kind of superpowers in the whole alumina complex, 606 00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:33,640 sort of depleted. And that's why I kind of had to 607 00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:37,160 go to Guinea and, and, and, and, you know, even go out there to 608 00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:40,120 start bringing in, in bauxite was because they're, they're, 609 00:31:40,200 --> 00:31:43,440 you know, domestic reserves are, you know, becoming higher and 610 00:31:43,440 --> 00:31:45,280 higher cost and, and fewer and fewer of them. 611 00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:46,280 No 100. Percent. 612 00:31:46,280 --> 00:31:47,440 Hence the fragility in the system now. 613 00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:49,400 Yeah. And I mean even in in this graph 614 00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:52,600 here you can see the the Guinea sort of benchmark process for 615 00:31:52,600 --> 00:31:55,800 bauxite sort of experiencing, you know pretty similar hefty 616 00:31:55,800 --> 00:31:58,840 gains as well. And then even as far as Metro 617 00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:01,200 was concerned, I mean they, they actually achieved their, their 618 00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:06,000 guidance last year or just shot 4.6 million tonnes shipped. 619 00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:11,000 They announced FID final investment decision on the 7 620 00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:15,400 million tonne expansion, as we said, sort of through expanding 621 00:32:15,400 --> 00:32:18,200 this sort of trend shipping and, and, and screening capacity 622 00:32:18,840 --> 00:32:21,040 that's all sort of fully commissioned and ramping up. 623 00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:27,680 Well, now they have a revised shipment guidance for, for this 624 00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:32,640 calendar year for six to 6.4 million tonnes and that was sort 625 00:32:32,640 --> 00:32:35,480 of reduced down a little bit due to sort of bit of an extended 626 00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:37,040 wet season at the start of the year. 627 00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:41,040 Their balance sheet has sort of been progressively cleaned up. 628 00:32:41,080 --> 00:32:47,360 I mean they raised $45,000,000 in May earlier this year to it 629 00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:50,640 was essentially called equity for debt rise. 630 00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:57,440 So now they've got about 13 a bit million cash total debt, 88 631 00:32:57,440 --> 00:33:01,320 million as at the sort of 30 June call in that's made up of 632 00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:06,600 Nabari debt, sort of shareholder loans and also an Abari royalty 633 00:33:06,600 --> 00:33:09,960 as well. And metros sort of indicated a 634 00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:13,320 lot in their sort of quarterlies and recent presentations that in 635 00:33:13,440 --> 00:33:17,800 expects to reduce net debt by another sort of $22 million this 636 00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:22,800 half from operational cash flow. And that sort of made me 637 00:33:22,800 --> 00:33:25,600 actually sort of go back and look at the numbers sort of how 638 00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:30,600 they've been going recently. So make they've been making a 639 00:33:30,600 --> 00:33:38,040 small site EBITDA the last few quarters and the the last half 640 00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:41,280 yearly they just put out for 30 June shows they're not 641 00:33:41,280 --> 00:33:44,080 operationally cash flow just yet. 642 00:33:44,760 --> 00:33:48,320 And you can see here this is an extract from the call as far as 643 00:33:50,440 --> 00:33:54,440 the pricing costs, site EBITDA and things like that. 644 00:33:55,960 --> 00:33:58,760 And then the half year report also shows sort of in the notes 645 00:33:58,760 --> 00:34:02,800 section there contractual maturities of non derivative 646 00:34:02,800 --> 00:34:06,080 financial liabilities. Basically what do they have to 647 00:34:06,080 --> 00:34:09,639 pay, what liabilities do they have to pay within the next 648 00:34:09,639 --> 00:34:11,440 year? And they've included sort of 649 00:34:11,440 --> 00:34:16,360 payables in that as well. And they're saying that they 650 00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:21,199 expect $109 million to go out the door within the next year, 651 00:34:21,199 --> 00:34:26,880 so to 30, June 25, which is a lot of money for a company 652 00:34:26,880 --> 00:34:30,080 that's not yet operationally cash flow positive. 653 00:34:31,000 --> 00:34:35,800 So that's super important for them the next couple of quarters 654 00:34:36,400 --> 00:34:39,000 sort of to make those, those requirements that they've 655 00:34:39,080 --> 00:34:42,920 outlined in their half yearly, the expansion CapEx side of 656 00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:44,639 things. I mean that's sort of pretty 657 00:34:44,639 --> 00:34:46,520 much all spent now. So they should have a pretty 658 00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:50,199 clear runway as far as investing, you know, sort of 659 00:34:50,199 --> 00:34:55,239 cash outflows and metro sort of reckon, you know, they're at a 660 00:34:55,239 --> 00:34:57,880 cash generation sort of Inflexion point now and they're 661 00:34:57,880 --> 00:35:04,680 sort of targeting a like a 15 Aussie buck a tonne site EBITDA 662 00:35:04,680 --> 00:35:08,640 for for this calendar year or $18.00 for next year. 663 00:35:09,400 --> 00:35:12,120 For context, the last few quarters just on the the rough 664 00:35:12,120 --> 00:35:14,720 numbers saying they're generating around 4 bucks a 665 00:35:14,720 --> 00:35:20,200 tonne of site EBITDA. So is it similar to like it's a 666 00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:22,720 bit of a sentiment play at the moment, like similar to an aura 667 00:35:22,720 --> 00:35:25,720 Banda? Like it's like that hasn't 668 00:35:25,720 --> 00:35:29,480 really hit the mark yet, but it's like if all the ducks line 669 00:35:29,720 --> 00:35:34,800 end up in a row, it should. I I feel it's very much yeah, as 670 00:35:34,800 --> 00:35:38,520 it's a sort of a sentiment and a bit of a, a bit of obviously, 671 00:35:38,640 --> 00:35:43,000 you know, leverage, leverage to the commodity price sort of play 672 00:35:43,000 --> 00:35:45,000 as well, I mean. And reducing their costs. 673 00:35:45,000 --> 00:35:48,960 And reducing, reducing their, their costs as well, you know, 674 00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:53,200 with the expansion too. So my takeaways from it is, I 675 00:35:53,200 --> 00:35:56,040 don't think they're out of the woods yet, but production's 676 00:35:56,040 --> 00:35:59,600 going the right way, box up, pricing's going the right way. 677 00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:04,720 The balance sheet is better, but it still makes me a little bit 678 00:36:05,160 --> 00:36:08,520 nervous. But the next two quarters are so 679 00:36:08,520 --> 00:36:12,920 critical from a cash flow perspective, which will go such 680 00:36:12,920 --> 00:36:18,200 a huge way to sort of show people how well the the the 681 00:36:18,200 --> 00:36:20,760 expansion to 7 million tonnes is working. 682 00:36:20,760 --> 00:36:23,440 And also from obviously a cash flow perspective to sort of 683 00:36:23,440 --> 00:36:28,600 really get that net debt a fair bit lower because, you know, we 684 00:36:28,600 --> 00:36:31,520 certainly don't want to see another, you know, equity for 685 00:36:31,520 --> 00:36:33,320 debt rise like they did earlier this year. 686 00:36:33,320 --> 00:36:37,760 So it is very much a still, you know, at an Inflexion point. 687 00:36:37,760 --> 00:36:41,920 So yeah, keen to see them get it underway. 688 00:36:41,920 --> 00:36:45,760 Yeah, good, good in the woods, JC, but you're venturing out of 689 00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:48,040 the comfort zone. Take it on bulk site. 690 00:36:48,720 --> 00:36:50,560 That's out of the Manchester so. Proud. 691 00:36:51,160 --> 00:36:53,360 Oh good buddy. There might be some up there, 692 00:36:54,240 --> 00:36:56,800 who knows. Any bulks hot in the merchants 693 00:36:56,800 --> 00:36:58,080 in You didn't. I wouldn't. 694 00:36:58,160 --> 00:37:00,120 You've been on. I'll check on one XR, check on 695 00:37:00,240 --> 00:37:01,880 waggons. Think you'd want it much closer 696 00:37:01,880 --> 00:37:03,440 to the port? Get that logistics. 697 00:37:03,440 --> 00:37:05,800 Oh yes. True, companies like Metro are 698 00:37:05,800 --> 00:37:10,720 the sort of like, yeah, the, the, the, the type of company 699 00:37:10,720 --> 00:37:14,640 that, you know, some people can, who are really good kind of 700 00:37:14,720 --> 00:37:17,120 resources stock because they, they look for companies like 701 00:37:17,120 --> 00:37:20,440 Metro where they're, they've got a busted up balance sheet, you 702 00:37:20,440 --> 00:37:23,800 know, kind of poor operational like like delivery history and 703 00:37:24,000 --> 00:37:26,400 all, all that sort of stuff. But then if they get the 704 00:37:26,400 --> 00:37:28,520 commodity cycle right, also if they're reducing costs at the 705 00:37:28,520 --> 00:37:32,200 same time, you know, via some expansion and those, those can 706 00:37:32,200 --> 00:37:35,520 be pretty transformative kind of moments. 100% and even. 707 00:37:35,520 --> 00:37:37,960 It's like look at look at what Metro is off its base, off its 708 00:37:37,960 --> 00:37:39,280 low. It's just kind of phenomenal. 709 00:37:39,280 --> 00:37:41,400 And some people are really good at picking that those sort of 710 00:37:41,400 --> 00:37:43,200 moments and they're kind of some of the lowest risk kind of, 711 00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:45,960 well, lowest risk in quotation marks sort of, yeah, returns 712 00:37:45,960 --> 00:37:47,080 that you can make in our industry. 713 00:37:47,240 --> 00:37:50,000 Yeah, because it's really, I mean like exactly like you say, 714 00:37:50,040 --> 00:37:51,720 Trevor. I mean from from the mid ones 715 00:37:51,720 --> 00:37:55,960 where it was or low twos where it was for for a while. 716 00:37:55,960 --> 00:37:59,560 It sort of got up to the, you know, fours, fives and sixes in, 717 00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:03,080 you know, in the last last few months, which I mean, that's 718 00:38:03,080 --> 00:38:05,240 that's pretty good in a few months if you're looking at it 719 00:38:05,240 --> 00:38:07,520 from a returns perspective. And you know, they've still got 720 00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:08,960 a bit of a journey to go as well. 721 00:38:08,960 --> 00:38:11,800 So it could be, you know, potentially even more assuming 722 00:38:11,800 --> 00:38:15,000 things you know go well and as as planned, so. 723 00:38:15,160 --> 00:38:17,440 It's pretty fortunate, right? A lot of people were starting to 724 00:38:17,440 --> 00:38:18,400 anticipate that. Yeah. 725 00:38:18,400 --> 00:38:19,760 Hey, I think we're at the woods here. 726 00:38:20,960 --> 00:38:23,320 Sort of, yeah. It reminds me of Saint Barbara 727 00:38:23,320 --> 00:38:26,360 back in the day when I think they went down to about $0.05. 728 00:38:26,360 --> 00:38:29,840 That's great. When they had the Solomon's and 729 00:38:31,200 --> 00:38:33,960 there's another one and like, but it was like, they've still 730 00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:36,400 got Gwalia. And once they flogged all that 731 00:38:36,400 --> 00:38:38,640 off it went. There was some, there was a 732 00:38:38,640 --> 00:38:42,560 truckie that dipped in like a good chunk of money and became a 733 00:38:42,560 --> 00:38:45,040 millionaire, bought at 5-5 or eight cents. 734 00:38:45,040 --> 00:38:48,560 And then it went back up into the 2 bucks and then became St 735 00:38:48,560 --> 00:38:51,240 Barbara again after that. But like had that honey period 736 00:38:51,240 --> 00:38:55,120 where it was just had Gwalia and it fucking ripped. 737 00:38:55,800 --> 00:38:56,440 Yeah. It's. 738 00:38:56,760 --> 00:38:58,160 A great analogy. I should have been on it. 739 00:39:00,440 --> 00:39:01,760 All right. We're going to finish one day. 740 00:39:01,960 --> 00:39:04,160 I'll go to get one one day, one day we're. 741 00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:08,000 Going to finish on a, you know, a bit more of a downer note 742 00:39:08,000 --> 00:39:11,160 after Metro, which is much more of a a positive story. 743 00:39:11,160 --> 00:39:14,760 But Coronado was a, you know, fairly big news out today that 744 00:39:14,760 --> 00:39:19,200 the stock got hammered on the open 15 or 16% down straight 745 00:39:19,200 --> 00:39:21,240 away. And, you know, again, it's, it's 746 00:39:21,240 --> 00:39:24,720 more problems at at Cara. It's been a, you know, a bit of 747 00:39:24,720 --> 00:39:27,600 a, a problem child for for a while now and it was, it was a 748 00:39:27,600 --> 00:39:29,360 downgrade. So they downgraded production, I 749 00:39:29,360 --> 00:39:35,480 think 7 odd percent to 15.4 million to 16,000,000 metric 750 00:39:35,480 --> 00:39:38,080 tonnes of production. And then of course on the back 751 00:39:38,080 --> 00:39:42,480 of that you see costs jump up. So costs jump up from one O 5 to 752 00:39:42,560 --> 00:39:45,320 110 bucks. You know, that's mining costs. 753 00:39:45,320 --> 00:39:48,320 Obviously you Chuck on all your royalties and everything else on 754 00:39:48,320 --> 00:39:51,280 top of that, but that's a 10% jump on that front. 755 00:39:51,280 --> 00:39:55,480 So I think if you were to do a bit of a, you know, relative or 756 00:39:55,480 --> 00:39:59,240 comparative sort of chart, Coronado has just had a terrible 757 00:39:59,240 --> 00:40:01,920 sort of time. They've got assets in different 758 00:40:01,920 --> 00:40:05,840 continents and of, you know, varying degrees of successful, 759 00:40:06,120 --> 00:40:09,480 you know, in operations over the past few years. 760 00:40:09,480 --> 00:40:12,360 And Cara's family been one that's pulled them down a lot of 761 00:40:12,840 --> 00:40:16,360 bad weather and sort of flow on effects and they they've spoken 762 00:40:16,360 --> 00:40:19,840 about, you know. Idling the fleet, you know, all 763 00:40:19,840 --> 00:40:22,480 these sorts of things which might be short term good, long 764 00:40:22,480 --> 00:40:25,160 term bad, all these kind of things to sort of give them a 765 00:40:25,160 --> 00:40:28,280 bit more wiggle room. But it's been, it's been pretty 766 00:40:28,280 --> 00:40:31,160 tough out there. So CapEx is still a decent size 767 00:40:31,160 --> 00:40:32,800 number. They, they kept that the same. 768 00:40:32,800 --> 00:40:35,400 You can see and the thing will flick up here that that stays 769 00:40:35,400 --> 00:40:40,160 between 2:20 and 2:50 US for, for the financial year. 770 00:40:41,440 --> 00:40:43,320 They did say they're going to probably come in at the the 771 00:40:43,320 --> 00:40:46,640 upper end of that one with some work being accelerated into to 772 00:40:46,640 --> 00:40:50,080 calendar year 2024. They also spoke a bit about 773 00:40:50,600 --> 00:40:54,160 organic growth projects at Buchanan and Cara as well. 774 00:40:54,160 --> 00:40:56,840 So you got Mammoth underground. Buchanan by the way, is the one 775 00:40:57,160 --> 00:41:00,880 over in the States and they said they remain on on budget and on 776 00:41:00,880 --> 00:41:03,560 schedule. So there's a a bit of positive 777 00:41:03,560 --> 00:41:06,360 news there. And yeah, I think the last 778 00:41:06,360 --> 00:41:09,200 detail to kind of note, which is something we've seen with almost 779 00:41:09,200 --> 00:41:11,680 every Queensland coal miner, there was more sort of scathing 780 00:41:11,680 --> 00:41:15,720 words around the, you know, quote unquote, extreme royalties 781 00:41:15,720 --> 00:41:18,040 that have been hitting all the miners over there. 782 00:41:18,080 --> 00:41:20,640 And that language hasn't really changed over the past year and a 783 00:41:20,640 --> 00:41:22,240 half. And I don't expect it to, but 784 00:41:22,640 --> 00:41:25,320 who knows if we're going to see any sort of, you know, changes 785 00:41:25,320 --> 00:41:28,600 on that front? Here's a bloody question without 786 00:41:28,600 --> 00:41:29,840 notice. A quiz. 787 00:41:30,600 --> 00:41:32,680 Another one where you see significant rainfall. 788 00:41:32,680 --> 00:41:36,120 You think North Queensland like rainfall? 789 00:41:36,120 --> 00:41:39,160 Well, you get a lot of rain there and then the royalties and 790 00:41:40,480 --> 00:41:44,320 where if you could pick where to have a mining project in 791 00:41:44,360 --> 00:41:48,800 Australia taking into account rainfall like seasonality, 792 00:41:49,440 --> 00:41:55,000 access to water, the quality of water, native tidal, ease of 793 00:41:55,000 --> 00:42:00,200 operation, where would you pick? Good question I. 794 00:42:01,240 --> 00:42:03,720 Wow. Like cat like like Kalgoorlie, 795 00:42:03,720 --> 00:42:07,680 for instance, like water is a water's a challenge there like 796 00:42:08,040 --> 00:42:11,480 you go down South Cambowder and that like the salinity of the 797 00:42:11,480 --> 00:42:16,520 waters an issue and the amount of water. 1. 798 00:42:16,520 --> 00:42:18,120 Model. Think of the merchants. 799 00:42:20,160 --> 00:42:20,520 It's. Actually. 800 00:42:21,040 --> 00:42:23,480 Green bushes is. Oh, that's what, that's what I 801 00:42:23,480 --> 00:42:25,840 was going to say, yeah. Green bushes like that, you 802 00:42:26,080 --> 00:42:27,240 couldn't build it today because. You can't. 803 00:42:27,240 --> 00:42:28,120 It's. In the National Park? 804 00:42:28,120 --> 00:42:28,920 Yeah, exactly. Yeah. 805 00:42:29,000 --> 00:42:31,600 Exactly. But in terms of like probably 806 00:42:31,600 --> 00:42:34,800 seasonality, I assume they got a lot of water. 807 00:42:36,320 --> 00:42:39,200 It's also the right, it's also the right commodity, right? 808 00:42:39,200 --> 00:42:42,760 You're not going to get a a cold Queensland type tax on on 809 00:42:42,760 --> 00:42:45,560 lithium. I think that buddy. 810 00:42:45,560 --> 00:42:48,800 I suppose that Murchison, Leonora, Leinster areas. 811 00:42:48,800 --> 00:42:51,680 Probably not too bad. Not too bad, but then God was 812 00:42:51,720 --> 00:42:56,840 even saying, I think the native title becomes an issue there as 813 00:42:56,840 --> 00:42:58,480 well. Well, that's pretty difficult. 814 00:42:58,480 --> 00:42:59,840 There's probably an issue everywhere. 815 00:42:59,840 --> 00:43:02,000 Now. You go up north, pill, pill, 816 00:43:02,000 --> 00:43:05,000 like you got the potential cyclones. 817 00:43:05,680 --> 00:43:07,360 Yeah. The the operations you're doing 818 00:43:07,360 --> 00:43:12,160 up there are just such massive, you know, open pit operations 819 00:43:12,160 --> 00:43:15,240 which come with their own sort of challenges, native title and 820 00:43:15,240 --> 00:43:17,080 the like, you know, permitting and all these sorts of things 821 00:43:17,080 --> 00:43:19,520 so. Green bushes I wouldn't go to 822 00:43:19,520 --> 00:43:20,960 NSW. No as. 823 00:43:21,640 --> 00:43:23,600 Much as I love the place. Well, I think the question is 824 00:43:23,600 --> 00:43:26,120 very much what would you do in 2024, right? 825 00:43:26,120 --> 00:43:28,920 Because things change over time. Maybe South Australia? 826 00:43:30,120 --> 00:43:31,720 What's that? There's a couple of those mines 827 00:43:31,720 --> 00:43:33,400 that are right next to the Barossa Valley. 828 00:43:33,400 --> 00:43:35,000 I mean, that's pretty cool. Hillgrove. 829 00:43:35,200 --> 00:43:38,040 Hillgrove got it up. There's one, there's one there 830 00:43:38,040 --> 00:43:42,400 that's yeah, it's, it's too close, too close to town. 831 00:43:42,400 --> 00:43:44,800 It's they put a, there's a goldscoping study on one of 832 00:43:44,800 --> 00:43:46,120 them. It's too, it's too, it's too 833 00:43:46,240 --> 00:43:49,000 close, too close and they get permanent kind of thing, but. 834 00:43:49,200 --> 00:43:51,280 Yeah, yeah. And I think there was a bit of 835 00:43:53,120 --> 00:43:54,520 yeah, there was some easy that was a. 836 00:43:54,520 --> 00:43:58,520 Really good question actually. Oh great, that green down South. 837 00:43:58,520 --> 00:44:01,920 CFWAI reckon that might be the spot Maybe Ravens thought. 838 00:44:02,240 --> 00:44:05,720 Ravens thought. I have heard the black cockatoos 839 00:44:05,720 --> 00:44:08,360 a big issue if you're trying to build a mine down South now even 840 00:44:08,360 --> 00:44:09,480 though. Yeah, yeah. 841 00:44:09,640 --> 00:44:12,040 I think it could be hard to get. The whole environmental process 842 00:44:12,080 --> 00:44:13,480 would be tricky. Yeah, yeah. 843 00:44:13,720 --> 00:44:15,640 This is bauxite that. Yeah. 844 00:44:16,280 --> 00:44:20,160 You know, scales many, many 10s of thousands of acres, Yeah. 845 00:44:20,280 --> 00:44:25,040 So I think we're stand Tasmania, that's maybe tricky, pretty 846 00:44:25,040 --> 00:44:30,560 tricky unionised as well. I think Victoria, that's bloody 847 00:44:30,560 --> 00:44:33,000 ARB from permits like Australia's bloody ARB. 848 00:44:33,000 --> 00:44:35,280 We're we're struggling to fall. I'll go on the Murchison. 849 00:44:35,400 --> 00:44:38,400 Let's go to Murchison. Go to the Murchison. 850 00:44:39,520 --> 00:44:40,880 Trying to think of an island somewhere. 851 00:44:42,080 --> 00:44:48,200 New Caledonia, What islands are there? 852 00:44:49,240 --> 00:44:52,360 Caledonia had that was the that was the nickel 1 wasn't it? 853 00:44:52,560 --> 00:44:54,920 Was that nickel in New Caledonia at one stage? 854 00:44:55,480 --> 00:44:57,680 One stage right now. Go get some they had. 855 00:44:57,680 --> 00:45:00,320 The protests there this year. Go get some bloody phosphide 856 00:45:00,400 --> 00:45:02,880 over at Nauru. Yeah, I was going to say the 857 00:45:03,640 --> 00:45:06,920 islands of South America, of Chile and stuff, they were just 858 00:45:07,360 --> 00:45:10,120 just bird shit that were mined for as long as they could be. 859 00:45:12,000 --> 00:45:15,400 They were gold mines for a little while before all 860 00:45:15,400 --> 00:45:16,320 disappeared. And pretty. 861 00:45:16,320 --> 00:45:18,800 Sure, go Brazil. Maybe Brazil is the new hotspot. 862 00:45:19,200 --> 00:45:21,520 Forget Australia. Why choose Africa? 863 00:45:22,200 --> 00:45:24,880 Just cheaper. Yeah, you gotta be specific 864 00:45:24,880 --> 00:45:28,440 about your country. So I think we've come to the 865 00:45:28,720 --> 00:45:30,400 conclusion mining is hard. Mining is pretty. 866 00:45:30,400 --> 00:45:33,240 Hard, good summer. Good summer. 867 00:45:33,960 --> 00:45:35,560 Well, it's not hard to call Axis. 868 00:45:35,920 --> 00:45:37,600 No. There's phone numbers there. 869 00:45:37,600 --> 00:45:39,280 It's in the shine. Just bloody call. 870 00:45:39,280 --> 00:45:41,760 Call Sean, Sean. He's a he's a guru. 871 00:45:41,840 --> 00:45:44,640 Knows everything about drill hole orientation and 872 00:45:44,880 --> 00:45:46,680 instrumentation. Legend. 873 00:45:46,800 --> 00:45:48,880 You can see him at Adia. Drill. 874 00:45:48,880 --> 00:45:51,520 Oh, nice. He's gonna be blind. 875 00:45:51,520 --> 00:45:55,640 Oh, I cannot wait, cannot wait. And and Speaking of Adia, Adia, 876 00:45:56,160 --> 00:45:59,200 Australian. Drilling Industry Association. 877 00:45:59,200 --> 00:46:04,360 That's the one JD I was just tested yeah and MMS mineral 878 00:46:04,360 --> 00:46:10,120 mining services verify Dosi underground Silverstone stop 879 00:46:10,120 --> 00:46:13,040 scrolling too fast and. CRE insurance, Greenland's 880 00:46:13,040 --> 00:46:16,480 equipment. Cage Hue, Spark and Hoodoo 881 00:46:16,720 --> 00:46:21,120 Hoodoo Information contained in this episode of Money of Mine is 882 00:46:21,120 --> 00:46:23,320 of general nature only and does not take into account the 883 00:46:23,320 --> 00:46:26,920 objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular 884 00:46:26,920 --> 00:46:28,960 person. Before making any investment 885 00:46:28,960 --> 00:46:32,000 decision, you should consult with your financial advisor and 886 00:46:32,000 --> 00:46:35,160 consider how appropriate the advice is to your objectives, 887 00:46:35,360 --> 00:46:37,360 financial situation and needs.