Well, the the capability really came from the West.
Truth be told, we quit doing it. And they have a huge cost
advantage. You know, when they were talking
about technologies that they were going to might limit the
export of and one of the things they talked about was Hard Rock
conversion. And it was like, really, we
actually started that. Righto Buddy Waters Lithium
Spectacular Carmen, you're white boys.
You know the best place to charge a lithium battery.
Tell me, Matthew. In a charging station, probably
in a grounded camp, they can put them in and 'cause you know
what, 'cause they don't build on the plan, they design the plan
and then they build that design concept.
Construct, mate. Absolute experts, mate.
You can have a look at this joint, this is Subiaco on a mine
site and you see grounded zone KD Dore walking around here.
I swear that is the animated version of KD Dore.
It's been model off but you can but unbelievable quality.
That is what you will see in real life once the grounded team
unleash their expertise. On camp, camp is the wrong word.
We need, we need, we need a a new word for what these are,
because this is revolutionized accommodation on a mine site.
Resort. Resort.
Resort Village, Yeah, it's, it's got, it's got to make work in
there. Happy city dwellings in the
Bush. Love it.
Designed concept and constructed by the grounded group.
Go grounded right? Did they build their own
building? They probably did down West
Perth. I think they did.
Yeah. Yeah, definitely designed it.
Love to know that. Anyway, back to Lithium.
Mr. Joe Lowry. Mr. Lithium come back.
Bloody sorry I couldn't join us on this one.
I hope you gave him more regards.
Great fella. And what's what's the vibe?
What is the vibe? The vibe is that we want to be
counter cyclical, Matthew. And as we sort of discussed in
the show, lithium is very beaten up, no surprise to anyone and
why not have a chat about it with none other than Mr.
Lithium. We covered everything under the
sun in Lithium world from the M&A that we've seen in recent
times, the supply demand dynamic and the conversation really came
off the back of his awesome write up on how the Chinese have
dominated the lithium space in the battery metal, battery
metals and battery making arena for the last 5-10 years.
So I think that's all you kind of need to know for this one.
So counter cyclical you say and find something that's going down
shit loads and hope it goes back up.
Yeah, exactly in a nutshell. Right now, let's get into Mr.
Lithium. Mr. Lithium, we are very excited
to to have you back on the show. It's been well over a year now
and with where where lithium markets have been and the kind
of general sentiment around the space, we thought it'd be a
great time to get you back on the show.
And then you actually published a, a little piece on LinkedIn,
the Lithium Art of War. And yeah, I, I never thought I'd
lead in the podcast with a bit of Sun Tzu, but I think it's
quite. Fitting.
Given, given your paper so that there was some fascinating sort
of points and it sort of puts into perspective the the rise
and rise of, of China and the, and the kind of falling off of
the West. But yeah, came came to start the
podcast to understand what was the the inspiration to to put
into words what has happened over the past 1520 years in the
lithium arena. Well, as a proud American, I B
whale are falling off a Cliff, falling off the lithium Cliff
over the years over the you know, when I started, everything
that went to the battery industry was from the US, mined
in the US, processed in the US and and that was it was short
lived. It was only three or four years
because we did not have the capacity at the time and had to
make a transition from Hard Rock to brine.
But I really tire of the whining on the US.
Well, I won't even limit it to the US.
Europe too, and and frame it more broadly, North America and
Europe about in China's unfair competition and how they've
dominated. They were terrible at all of
this for the better part of 15 years, but they stuck with their
program. You know, I can go back is
recently is 2009, 2010. Nobody would buy Chinese
material unless it was low end stuff.
The European Greece guys would buy their hydroxide, but the
Koreans and the Japanese, who at that time still were dominant in
the battery supply chain, they wouldn't touch Chinese material.
Gangfen didn't even start making carbonate and hydroxide until
the last 15 years, so they existed for over a decade before
they even were in a financial position to put the capital in
to convert. So it it's been an interesting
rise and you know, highlighted gang fan.
I could have just as easily talked about Tianchi, although I
don't think their story is quite as interesting as gang fans.
But then BYD also I, I met BYD before I met Gangfen.
I, I met BYD 25 years ago and was supplying them carbonate and
cathode materials, which we made it a joint venture in Japan.
And I saw that rise because their beginnings were very, very
humble as well. And CADL before.
They're they're doing EVs right. Oh, yeah, this, this was all
they went up into the hinterland and got a bunch of teenage girls
to make crummy batteries by hand.
And, and literally, I mean, they put their capital in the testing
equipment because back then, and, and this is really
fascinating, the first time I went to their facility, they
were bragging about how making things by hand was actually a
strength because they could pivot faster than Sony could.
But they also were honest enough to say that most of their
batteries couldn't be sold to the international cell phone
market, which back then was two names.
You guys probably don't. You might be familiar with Nokia
and Motorola. They were the big cell phone
guys back then. I mean, it kind of.
This was after the Gordon Gekko shoe case.
We're not that young, Joe. We remember, We remember those.
I reckon we both owned one of them.
And, and the United States did not have, I mean my cell when I
lived in Asia, I had three cell phones.
I had a China cell because roaming wasn't really a thing
early on. So I had a China cell phone for
trips to China. I was living in Japan.
I had a Japanese cell phone and I had AUS cell phone.
And my US cell phone had a nickel metal hydride battery
back then. So it was pre lithium?
Yeah. And look, looking at the market
caps of these companies, I think just to, to state the numbers so
people really appreciate it like BYD is in Aussie dollar terms
$215 billion, so 2/3 of that to get the US market cap.
And cattle is about the same like these companies are they're
bigger than BHB now. It's, it's remarkable the, the,
the rise and rise. I want, I want to hone in on, on
cattle for a second, Joe, because the, the really
interesting part that stuck out to me from your writing was on
their appreciation of vertical integration and what they learnt
in the the latest wild ride that we saw in that 2122 boom.
And they, you know, went on to, to purchase these lipid light
operations. How do you kind of put that in,
in perspective and you know, think about how they might
utilize those operations and the learnings they've got from that
going forward over the next sort of 1020 years?
I I think it's even broader than just what CATL did, but to go
with the question in the 2022 run out, they had to try to keep
their share. They had a a program where they
were guaranteeing that the form the price lithium price in the
formula would be basically the equivalent of 20,000 pricing,
which they lost a lot of money on is the price continued to
rise. And these guys are very smart
people and they move fast. They didn't like what was
happening. They realized that a price is
just going to keep going up, that they could exploit what
were very well known resources. They just weren't economic in
any other lithium cycle. And it goes way beyond that,
though. They, the lipid light came on
and then all the African move and they figured out I think
really quickly how they're going to manage the next cycle because
there's layers of, you know, the cost curve.
Your last lithium guest talked about the, you know, the concept
of the steepening cost curve and that is certainly true.
And now I think that is going to be the the buffer on significant
price runs in the future because all the Chinese converters know
where this stuff is, whether it's DSO or 2.5 or whatever the
grades are. Africa's has such a diversity of
they have decent lithium and they have a lot of garbage.
But when the price runs up to 35,000 and 40,000 and then all
the way up to 80, you can use any of that stuff.
And I think that the last cycle taught all of China, all their
lithium supply chain, how they'll react next time.
And it it seemed quick in 2022-2023, it'll be quicker next
time. But I also believe there will be
a shortage and there will be a price spike because on the other
hand of what CAT LS done and, and I think there's fair
consensus that there's a lot of misinformation out there.
If you go back to 2022, they were CHL was pumping the sodium
ion battery and how great it was going to be in the share it was
going to get. And they, they knew the
limitations of that. But it, it was rhetoric that
scared the West And that's, that's the game.
They've they've done a great job of disincentivizing capital from
chasing what I would call mediocre projects.
I mediocre projects for MMS all class boys.
Ask me anything about MMS and mining.
Does open pit mining have a relationship with underground
mining Matthew? Interesting question.
Well, let's consider the black cat have just taken pretty much
saying Myra is going underground.
Now if we could link that back to MMS, their superior
performance at my RE getting there quicker, obviously leaving
it in Shmico condition. All the bloody walls are just
ready to punch portals in. I would say yes, MMS have pretty
much blackout have said, holy shit, we can go underground now.
We weren't expecting to be here. Thank you MMS, that is pretty
much what's happening. So answer your question, JD.
Yes, if you mind the open pit quick at a superior quality.
Yes, it makes your underground better and sooner.
If I understand you're right, Matthew, that means earlier cash
flow for you the mining company? Well mate you probably just
start. You're just getting double the
cash flow cause the pits still go you.
Didn't sterilise the ore body, you looked after it.
Twice as much cash flow, five times as quicker and your share
price goes up like Black Cat when MMS is your trusted mining
partner. Seems like a no brainer to.
Me. I didn't know what?
Let's get back into boot, Joe. Just to tease that out even
more, Joe, like what's the, what's the, the economic
incentive for them to do do so? Well, take BYD and CATL
together. They're almost half of global
lithium demand, two companies. We never had that situation
before. If you look at 1.2 terawatt
hours total last year roughly and BYD and CATL being half of
that, and I'm a little more conservative on my lithium
intensity than your guest from Singapore.
But anyway you calculate it, they are far and away the
dominant purchaser of lithium values in whatever form, whether
they're it sells, cathode, whatever, and they have every
incentive in the world to run a mine or a couple of mines at a
loss. If you're buying 3 or 400,000
tons of LCE and you take a beating on 4050 sixty thousand
tons, but you keep your other purchases 8910 dollars below
what they would run up to if you weren't doing that, it's it's
not rocket science. If we, if we go back once more,
Joe, to, to really set, set the foundation for, for this rise of
these, these Chinese companies. One of the other points you, you
make and, and others have sort of made and you see it across
all, all industries. But you know, you know, very
obviously in, in the AV and the battery sort of space is the,
the way in which government and industry kind of mesh and, and
work together and that's kind of coordinate to, to achieve these
strategic goals. When, when you look at like BYD
and and cattle now, do you, do you see them as being able to
kind of run their own race and the the government has kind of
just tapped them in line when, when that needs to kind of
happen, but they're they're free to sort of do so?
Or how, how do you view the the government and enterprise at a
relationship today? I think you just phrased it very
well. They let them run until they
have something to say. And I, I think you, you saw that
I, I don't know if it was the March meeting two years ago or
when Xi Jinping told Robin Zong that he ought to be careful
about going to the US and you needed to be dealing with
friendly entities that I'd, I'd have to go back and, and Google
that article. But it was, it was pretty clear.
And I think everybody knows the Jack Ma story.
That's not a, that's not a lithium story, but you know,
they turn Jack Ma into a verb, you know, you get Jack Ma.
So I I think there's been a. Bit of a bit of a change lately
though, right? The, The, the attitude towards
successful business people is, I don't know, it's, it's kind of
altered a little bit. And, and Jack Ma has, you know,
been the, been the face of that. You've you've seen him in public
again, which you didn't say from the youth.
I think that's optics, I think. It's all optics, right?
Yeah, I, I, not to be completely cynical, but having lived there,
having watched it, knowing some of these people, you don't want
to be the richest guy in China. You want to be 3 or 4.
When I lived there, there was two or three years where the
person named the richest person in China was in jail the next
year. I I used to love that saying
that the fastest way to to die in in China is to become a
billionaire. Yeah, but I mean, probably.
Offended an entire nation there, so maybe I'll retract that.
I admire what China's done. I mean, that is my bottom line
from the what I put up on on LinkedIn is that I think that
it's very arrogant of North America or Europe to think they
can do in a short period of time what it literally took China
decades to do with all the support put in place with.
I hired a lot of people when I lived in China and I always said
I would much rather have to pick from a pool of Chinese town than
a pool of American town. It's a tremendously industrious
nation, right? Everybody wanted to get ahead
their their nuances to how you manage Chinese young people
there. They do probably need a little
more stroking in terms of having a lot of the I managed different
age groups and the young people were a little more aggressive.
But the people that had mom and dad went through the Cultural
Revolution. They had a respect for authority
that you didn't really see so much in in the US at the time.
But they're the 50 years of communism I used to say when I
was living there didn't beat the entrepreneurial spirit out of
the Chinese people. That's that that point is, is
often a bit lost in the commentary around China.
It's just the, the relative competitiveness that does exist
amongst, you know, the the centralized government.
It was the old saw, especially in in the early days of cathode
was once a company started making decent cathode, then one
of their lead guys would quit, go down the street and open up
another cathode supplier. It was just people wanted to be
their own boss. And I admired the really the
hard work, the the work ethic was impressive.
And so I may not like Mr. XI much, but I admire the Chinese
people and will continue to do so.
The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without
fighting. How does this relate to lithium
so. Well, it's it really does.
And not to hype my podcast, but if you go back and listen to the
episode Not Lost in Translation with Lee Lamb Bing and Wang Xiao
Shen, I mean, they talked about the early days.
They had to deal with everybody. They were the supplicants.
They never, there was never a discouraging word said, but they
knew where they wanted to go. And that was one of the things
that I always told people that we're dealing with them because
I I made a presentation at Panorama Minero event last
October and I showed gang fence slides.
That they had presented to me in 2005 about wanting to become a
strong domestic supplier and then they wanted to become a
regional player. And this is not in carbonate and
hydroxide. This was in the downstream
because they they had enough capital to to have a metal plan
and they had enough capital to try to do butyl lithium.
But I think if you look at the three companies I highlight in
that article, they all started off with technology from other
people. I mean, CATL technology was came
from Japan and or ATL did. And then CATL was an offshoot of
that. And there was always the, the
Chinese concept of they would always say, you know, Big
Brother, I need help. And it wasn't, it wasn't until
they got to the where they are today that they now publicly
still show the humility. But those guys are very
confident in who they are and where they're going.
And they're certainly not afraid of anybody outside of China.
On on the conversion front, like just how how many, like how many
years ahead like realistically would that be if if the you
know, if the if the the West tried to replicate some of that
some of that capability. Well, the the capability really
came from the West. Truth be told, they learned how
to convert spot. You mean from us.
We didn't learn. Now we quit doing it and they
have a huge cost advantage. But you know, that's that's
something that I always push back on is that, you know, when
they were talking about technologies that they were
going to might limit the export of and one of the things they
talked about was Hard Rock conversion.
And it was like really, we actually started that.
So, but I take the question seriously.
I look at Tesla, Corpus Christi, they announced that the the Cal
sire was turning, but they haven't, I haven't I haven't
seen a lot of announcements about the great quality product
that they're producing because it's not happening as far as I
know. I don't want to get into trouble
if they have been sneaking product to cathode makers, but I
think I would know. I do think we're more hamstrung
on the permitting side, the financing side.
And and I think it's probably, I would say the gap in simply
lithium. We can't catch up and we
shouldn't even try to catch up. But we do need our own supply
chain too. And that's just because when I
was there and watching early days, when I was first making
trips once a month between 2000 and 2005, before I moved to
China from Japan, there were not that many converters.
And now I, I don't, I don't have any idea how many dozen
conversion facilities there are now.
But you, you had easy money when they were trying to develop the
West, the the regional banks were propping up people that
weren't making a dime for years. And we don't, we don't have that
kind of situation in America. So I'd say that's as much the
problem is just the pure technology because I can get on
the phone and call a bunch of people that live within a few
hours of where I'm sitting that could get a converter bill if
they had the money and and they could put it into operation
relatively quickly if they could get a permitted if all the
things that you have to do besides just the engineering.
So to your point on, on us needing to have our own supply
chain in in the West and, and needing to compete, what what do
you make of the, the IRA and where that kind of stands now
and what that kind of looks, looks like and you know any
other sort of similar government type package to, to kind of chip
away at China's dominance? Well, I am heartened that we are
building factor Pass and all the issues that were in the way have
been surmounted and that that's being built.
And you know, it's, that was a huge loan.
I mean, 2.3 billion is nothing to sneeze at.
And then it required some other additional financing and that's
all in place. I think it's being well
supported by the local governments, the, the national
governments. But that's one 40,000 ton plant
that can expand to 80. It's it's a beginning.
The real open question in North America is, well, there's,
there's more than one, but how fast do the Exons and Ecuador's
move Rio Tinto put real money into their lithium effort.
I'm not saying that the oil companies had aren't willing to
put real money in, but so far it's been kind of a slow roll as
they they learn and they're not. It isn't a Manhattan Project
speed scenario. It's probably the the kindest
way to put it. I don't think a company like Rio
is is capable of a Manhattan type style or speed of operation
in in all fairness to them, it's just not their their sort of MO.
Oh, and I, I was thrilled that Rio put the capital in, but I've
said on my podcast, I've said it in writing, I've said it on XI,
don't think they speed this up. I think that they have the
balance sheet to do all the projects that they own, but they
don't have the skills yet. And I, you know, heard a recent
guest talk about all the skills that Arcadium had.
Well, let's, let's, I'll just take it.
I'll just personalize it to my experience.
I left FMC Lithium in 2012. Ten years later, they were
producing the same amount of LC ES as they were when I left.
That's after announcing expansions.
That's after a lot of rhetoric and they didn't execute.
Some of it could be laid on to financial issues, but that to me
was more of an excuse and I think Rio's already made a huge
mistake in keeping that management intact.
They didn't get it done is live in.
They didn't get it done as separately as all chem and they
didn't get it done as arcadium. So why do you want to keep the
same management intact who didn't perform, who just had a
portfolio of really good assets? It and I, and I actually said
that to Rio's head of battery metals at BMO.
I had a meeting with him and said you guys have already made
mistake #1 didn't. They make Paul Graves the head
of CEO of Lithium. He's the CEO.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. I I like Paul.
Paul's a nice guy. Yeah, but let's go.
Let's look at the. You should judge people by the
record. And.
And I yeah, I made the statement when Arcadium was formed.
I made the statement that it made sense to have Paul run it
because he's a banker and he'll, he'll he'll be able to sell it.
And he did that and they should have thanked him and moved on.
What what did you make of the price tag like to to just speak
to that the financial aspect of of that that deal?
I think Paul's a banker and I think Paul got a good price.
I don't think it was as bad as some of Rio Tuno's other deals
maybe, but I don't want to go too far down there.
That's a high bar to to be. Well, that's hence the comment.
I do. I've got enough.
I mean, before we even kind of venture into some of the grounds
of the deal landscape and everything like that.
I feel like the maybe even the most topical thing to talk about
is the last few days we've just been watching the lithium
equities in particular here. I just absolutely crater.
I mean, today as we wake up and we're recording it might be a
bit of a bounce, but it it, it almost seems like there's a a
really huge response to to tariffs as they relate to the
lithium mining equities that we have like pill gang or like, you
know, PLS now they call themselves not pillar minerals.
PLS They're they're like a dollar 2020 odd, but 26
yesterday at some point it's just yeah, amazing and means.
I mean, it's 31 and 34 cents. So I'm I'm still.
I'm still hanging in. So, so is this, is this like, is
this, is this tariffs? Is this is that what this is
like? What are the like?
What's? No, I think, I think the set,
the sentiment in lithium is worse in 2025 than it was in the
dark days of less than $4000 a ton that SQM and Ora Cobre sold
into China at during 2020. In some cases that wasn't their
average price, but it got that low and you're still in the
10,000 range now. But the sentiment is still so
negative. You know, two years ago it, it,
it BMO, every uranium company was talking about they might
have lithium and gold guys were the same.
Now it's the opposite. Every lithium guys like, hey,
maybe we'll go maybe we'll go for uranium.
I I don't think I think it's just the overall the markets
down and it's easy to be negative on lithium used to
track Tesla, you know, several years ago.
And right now, I mean, people that drive Tesla are getting
spit out their cars getting spit on it stop lights because
everybody's mad at Elon. So right now, America's, you
know, going through a moment interesting time.
Well, some of it must, like there must be kind of a part of
it that is related to expectations like in
recessionary conditions, like where's the discretionary spend
on lithium coming from plus combined with how much of the,
you know, the best demand would have come from the US.
And all of a sudden the terrorists might make those, you
know, individual projects or growth forecasts kind of
uneconomic for the time being. And then some short term, you
know, so some of it must be a factor of what is a, what is a
response to the, to the tariffs and kind of recessionary kind of
conjecture. But do you think that in the
long run that kind of just gets washed out?
I I think look what happened today.
The market roared in America. Tariffs pulls.
After Yeah, well, that's just not on China.
My entire my entire point is that give it 90 days to six
months to see what Trump does next.
Yeah, I think, I don't think lithium's suffering more than
the other stocks. I mean, I, I sold some Apple at
236 several weeks ago and bought it back in 180.
So I'm using this time to adjust My Portfolio.
That's what we say. If we if we look at the supply
side of the supply demand dynamic, how do you currently
sort of think about say over the next kind of three years your
kind of view versus consensus on on projects that can get up and
running? Are you, are you a bit more kind
of bullish or do you think the consensus is is a bit lofty?
What do you say that at the moment, Joe?
Well, tell me what you think. Consensus is that that would be
4.1. I think that let's look at South
America. Aaron met with great fanfare,
shipped 40 tons how many weeks ago?
They're struggling. People don't like to talk about
that, but it's hard bringing these projects on.
And Aramet wasn't really sure of how to run their DLE at scale, I
think. And they're they're learning,
not a job. People talk love to talk about
Zigen and three QS. How much have they produced?
I I think it's, it's, there's going to continue to be a
struggle in 2526 from some of the projects out there.
And then you got the smaller projects that can't get
financed. I mean, if you go back to the
Art of War bit, that's another one of the benefits of
misinformation and misdirection. As asset prices are go lower,
the Chinese can pick them up cheaper to the extent that
they're allowed to do that. If it doesn't get you know, you,
you take the geopolitics, which are are also a factor.
But ultimately CATL is going to pay the price for for this
because they're, you know, they can't as the market goes from
850,000 when they started this whole thing with a pedalite to 2
million. Their ability to use a couple of
epidolite mines to control the narrative is, is, is going to be
tougher. Although, as I said earlier, we
they've also identified what projects are economic at what
prices. And it's really instructive to
see what capacity came off when price got to 40, what project
came off when price got to 30. You're going to see the the
reverse when if, if price goes up and I price never should have
gotten to 40,000 in my opinion, but I price can't stay where it
is. Look at the look at the
financials of all the lithium companies and how many
adjustments can you make to EBITDA to try to make the story
look good. Depends how creative you are.
Yeah, I know a few creative lithium companies.
Wouldn't be the, the only sector that chucks in a few adjustments
to, to EBITDA? What what did you make of the,
the SQM comments? I think about a month ago now
they, they sort of forecast 25 to be flattish and that's not
what some people wanted to hear. And then they sort of spoke to a
bit of a, a pick up. How do you kind of wait what,
what those guys kind of say? What's your view on them?
I don't think price is going to break out in 2025 either.
But if you, you look at the history of SQL and they've
always been very conservative about how they talked about
price and I think that that continues.
So I, I just, I always take the price forecast rhetoric with a,
with a grain of salt, but I don't, I don't disagree with
them either in this, this time, I think there's enough lithium
values rolling around in China that price doesn't break out.
I think it'll be higher at the end of the year than it was at
the beginning of the year. But I don't think it, I think
that's a small number and I think you get your spike.
And I've said this publicly several times so far this year.
I think Q 4/20/26, you'll start to see a little bit of a run.
Look at the GW hours that are being made.
Look at the Western rhetoric. Rhetoric is all about EVs
haven't grown as much as some people expected in the United
States. the United States isn't that big of a deal right now in
the EV world. And China continues to go from
strength to strength and their exports are are growing and and
Bess is exceeding everybody's expectations.
So it's, it's, it's all about the GW hours or terawatt hours
now. So, so in that kind of subdued
environment, obviously you, you kind of mentioned there that the
potential for Chinese given geopolitics to, to scoop up.
But we have seen a couple other deals which I'm keen to, to get
your take on Pillbro or PLSA company.
We know you're quite supportive of went to went to Latin
America, they went to Brazil and and scooped up Latin resources.
What, what was your kind of perspective on, on that deal?
Did you? Just go.
I thought it was a good I'll be there in 2 weeks.
Two weeks. Gotcha.
Yeah. Yeah, I'll be actually I'll be
flying back two weeks gotcha tonight.
So I'm, I like the Latin story. Sigma's done a, a surprisingly
good job. And I always say surprisingly
because people had low expectations on Brazil.
I mean, if you look at the lithium, the lithium world tends
to adopt change slowly, shall we say.
And Brazil's really performed better.
And you know, there's, there's multiple projects down there and
I literally haven't been in Brazil since 1996.
So I go to South America a couple times a year.
But the last time I was in Brazil was to try to get the
nuclear ban lifted. They had, and we used to have to
get a license every time we sold into Brazil.
And it was a cumbersome process. So I'm happy to be going back to
Brazil. I think Dale made a really good
decision. I Dale's a very methodical guy.
And I think some messages were also being sent there that hey,
this is it isn't just WA. Yeah, well, that message was
clearly sent when they removed their name from being Hilbert of
PLS. But like I'm later.
But it is. It's also a statement about the,
you know, the. Isn't it PLS global?
It I can't remember, you're probably right, but yeah, the
just. Emphasizes the point.
It's also a statement about you know their, their, you know
probable views on, on you know, capital intensity and, and and
OpEx if the the relative jurisdictions too.
Yes, I think the the other Brazil's interesting too because
they're likely to have the full blown supply chain.
You know, BYD is very active down there and we'll we'll see
what happens where the whether they have a full blown supply
chain before America does it could happen.
That would be, that'd be quite something to to behold there.
There was one more bit of bit of insight I wanted to get from you
that was kind of company specific.
And it's, it's in the, the sort of West Farmers SQM joint
venture that we see here because we really struggled to get good
info. But we saw on the M&A front
rumors that Indian groups were looking to to buy a sort of 20%
stake of SQMS proportion. What, what's your sort of latest
info that you've got on on Mount Holland and and the refinery
that they're they're doing and any potential insight on on the
deal? I can't really speak to exactly
what's going on in Mount Holland, but I can tell you from
talking to some of the larger industrial companies in India
that they have a real interest in.
When a company comes and says we're, we're going to spend in
the range of five to $15 billion to try to go across the energy
storage system supply chain. And we to do that to have
confidence, we want to be vertically integrated.
And it's a credible, it's a credible entity.
And I've talked to multiple entities in India.
I can't speak to their specific interest in SQM because I
actually told me how to go to Argentina.
But what we'll see I, I think it's completely plausible.
And I think SQM got outside of their knitting by going to WA.
And I think it's been a tough slog.
And maybe when I'm in WA in the not too distant future I will I
will get better information, but that's just been a a tough slog
for both W farmers and SQM. Totally, totally.
I mean it was, it was such an interesting move by SQM to come
to to WA in Hard Rock. And in some ways it's kind of
forced upon them by the dynamics of operating in Chile.
They could have gone to Argentina.
They could have. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
That's a. And done what they know how to
do. Valid point.
For sure, yeah. Although they had, they had one
excursion into Argentina that didn't work out too well and
Gangfen bought them out, but they I think they would have had
much greater success figure it out Argentina brine versus out
of comma brine's rather than going to Hard Rock.
And I think Mr. Ramos drank a little bit of the Chris Ellis
and Kool-aid, and they'll pay the price for it.
It's a big price to pay that one.
I didn't say this was a happy story.
There's not too many happy stories in the Lithium land at
the moment. You think?
Just yeah, I know you guys like the pan lithium.
It's it's been it's been tough, but what other and I will, I
will pander to you Jonas and say commodity has grown 10X in a
decade. I I.
I take the other side, Judd, I, I think you know from, from our
perspective, we're more excited than we have been in, in a long
time on, on lithium because it's trading so hard in the cost
curve. I think there's a the the
realization though that our assets in our backyard here in
in WA perhaps don't sit on the cost curve where we previously
might have thought they see it are.
Yeah, is it? You're right.
It's a bit of pill to kind of swallow for a lot of folks down
here, but you know, it throws up sort of opportunities.
And I guess another point I was curious to get your take on is
like green bushes. It's it's tied up in a, in a
gnarly kind of ownership structure.
But there comes a point in time where if you're looking at WA
assets, the ones in our backyard here that Greenbushes is, is
certainly one of the better ones there.
So how do you kind of view that and how do you view picking out
assets that sit low in the cost curve in a, in a, a commodity or
a specialty chemical as you as you kind of say when it's really
beaten up? Well, I'm glad we're trying to
speak each other's languages here.
Well, Greenbushes is the best operating Hard Rock asset in the
world. I mean, it's, it's not what it
once was, but it's still head and shoulders above the other
from a cost perspective. The problem with Greenbushes
from my perspective is the convoluted ownership and it
would be better placed in one company's hands.
That's not the case. I I got to meet Ivan from IGO in
Florida in February. Likable guy.
I am, you know, hoping that things turn around for them and
but it's it it first of all, have an apple marl who hasn't
is, is zig when they should have zagged and zagged when they
should have zigged for the last seven or eight years.
That's tough. Tansy's got their own set of
problems and layering on 2 failed hydroxide projects to the
world's greatest Hard Rock acid just makes it all the more sad
story for the lithium industry. What, what does the, the, the
future sort of hold for, for Albemarle You've, you've, you
know, been been vocal on, on your thoughts on, on a range of
dynamics at play within, within the company.
But in a, in a downturn in a company with, with debt, the,
the challenges can be pretty, pretty sort of pressing.
How do you foresee the the next few years playing out if we sort
of stay where we are in a sort of perhaps plus 20 + 30% bound
on on lithium prices? Yeah, I think if you got plus
30%, the world would be a lot better place for Albemarle.
But Albemarle's just made so many missteps and they just
doing a podcast with them was, which I was surprised they
actually did, but it was easier to arrange.
I've never had more meetings to arrange a podcast than they did
with Apple Marl. Apple Marlles of is, has all the
bureaucracy of a huge oil company and it's, it's a, it's a
relatively small company. They hired too many people.
They had VPS like a, a bank and and I, you know, I, I, I
continue to harp on it because I continue to get calls from
people that leave the organization that want to bare
their souls. And I like to listen to it.
I don't think there's a I think they need to clean out the
leadership and I think they need a new board and I don't think
that's about to happen. So I it just you can't have a
palsy Walsy board. You can't pay a guy that
performed like Ken has the kind of money they've been paying
him. It's just it's a travesty as far
as I'm concerned, but I don't really have feelings about it.
Yeah, it's it's hot, hot pressed to to argue with a lot of those,
those perspectives. No, they have the 2.
Two of the best assets out there.
How can they be where they are? Lack of good strategy, lack of
good tactics and lack of good leadership.
Culminates in pretty, pretty questionable capital allocation.
I mean, how many of there, any of their growth projects or
everything have just been like 0 revenue generating decisions?
I felt like I was reading Mad magazine, which I'm sure you
guys don't know what that is, but it it was a kind of a.
Yeah, yeah. Mad Magazine kind of sets it
off. I when they were going to when
they made the offer for Lion Town, I thought, this is
straight out of Mad Magazine. I I don't get it.
And that that's no pejorative on Lion town.
I love the guys at Lion Town. You know, it's it's tough times
with the way the market is, but I'm just saying that Gina, Gina
benevolently saved Apple Marl. That's that's probably the
biggest irony of this decade in lithium.
Who would have thought it would be like that?
Well, yeah, I mean, it's, it's been wicked to for us to ask you
the questions that that we have about the space at the moment,
Joe. Go ahead, punish me.
It's fine. I I mean.
I I echo what Joe says like, you know, we're, we're, we're, we're
of the yoke of certainly being more interested in commodities
that have that have beaten up then then they are when they're
when they're flying. Kind of, you know, obviously the
the interest is far, far less from from an audience
perspective when commodities are beaten up than when they're
flying. But for us individuals who who
look counter cyclically, then yeah.
I am seeing in in what I do, I I'm seeing there's, there's a
lot more interest now. And I would just you asked a
question about India potentially investing.
I think that's happening. I think what Exxon and Ecuador
are doing, they're not worried about the vagaries of lithium
price the next three or four years.
It doesn't matter to them. They they can do what they want
to do. And and that's the that's the
positive side of the lithium story.
But to be a junior lithium player right now is kind of like
perpetual purgatory. The, the, the saving grace is
that the, the juniors flock with a sort of rearview type mirror,
not a not a forward-looking type outlook.
So yeah, put whatever sort of weight into that as you will.
I'd, I'd be curious to, to hear Joe, one thing that we notice,
given we're, we're both in the podcast to, you know, sort of
game to an extent. We, we definitely noticed the,
the interest in, in lithium since we sort of started two
years ago. Ebb, ebb and flow.
You know, it's sort of was very high 2023 and it's sort of
trails off. Is, is, is that a kind of
sentiment gauge the, the viewership that you get in your,
your podcast? Do you, do you notice that sort
of change substantially over, you know, because you've done it
a lot longer than we have? Well, I I spare my audience the
need to view me. It's just my voice.
But no, I had to, it's, it's really funny.
I mean, there's only one country on earth where I don't have a
download and that's Bhutan and that's Spotify stats, the 196
countries. I can predict the first 48 hours
the podcast is up. Doesn't matter who I have on,
I'm going to hit this number this hour and and all the way
through. I really haven't noticed much of
a difference in listenership. Interesting.
Yeah, it is. I, I have AI, have a loyal
following that they just like to punish themselves every couple
of weeks. I don't know.
There was there was a couple other assets and and companies I
wanted to get you you quick takes on.
So we spoke earlier in the week or maybe last week about Galan,
they suddenly announced that they they bounced back an offer
and then latest rumors they're coming out for a, a capital
raise. What's your what's your take on
on the asset and on the the kind of strategy?
They have been hamstrung by the market conditions and I know
they have a lot of disgruntled shareholders.
I understand a lot of people bought it at the top and, you
know, are unhappy. But if you look at what they're
trying to do, it's, it's a tough, it's a tough market.
I, I don't, I have a little money in Golan.
I, I, I'm a little underwater, not much because I, you know,
didn't, I bought it very late, But I like, I like JP and I'm
very close to Daniel Jimenez. I think it's a good asset.
And if I was going to sell it, I certainly wouldn't take the
offer they got. But yeah, moving it forward is
still a challenge. Yeah, yeah, for sure.
What one of the other assets was Gulamina and you you spoke in a
in a recent podcast about this sort of not not being the kind
of focus in a sense that the game Fang is prioritizing
Brian's. But this is obviously a
substantial project and we we hear about it a lot less since
the, you know, the, the the. Leo, this is not Leo Lithium
anymore. Yeah.
In a nutshell. Yeah, I think Gang Fen, as well
as they've done, has a lot of challenges because they have
multiple good brine projects. But Gang Fen likes to talk about
Gang Fen speed and Gang Fen speed is certainly true inside
China. Gang Fen speed slows down
markedly outside of China and I think the challenge they have
now is that they have such a big portfolio that yeah, yeah, I
think they, you know Golomina, I would think based on the
capacities they have and the need for rock that that Golomina
gets gets the attention. But I would be surprised if they
did additional significant Hard Rock before they get some of the
bright assets online. And I mean, just like at the
their last quarter announcement, I mean, it's, it's tough times
even for a gang fan. Fascinating stuff, Joe,
Appreciate you. You making the time and letting
us pick your brain on on every asset under the sun.
And yeah, letting us sort of ponder what the West can do
about catching up with with the the sort of bullet train that
China is. Well, when the bullet train
leaves the station 10 years before the next bullet train, it
is going to be hard to catch up. But I, I do have a belief that
the US will have a hat or North America will have a supply
chain. But it's, it's not going to be
the scale of China. It's not, it's just, it's, it's
going to be different. They picked, they picked the
energy transition to focus on. And we continue to dither about
battery packs and, you know, subsidies.
And we are reaping what we sowed.
We will keep paying attention, that's for sure.
You when we reached out and asked for interview, Joe, you
said only if you can ask us a couple of questions at the end.
So you've got the floor. Gentlemen, you've been doing
this now for two years. Two years it will take, yeah.
Each of you, what have you learned about yourself in the
process talking to people every day and you'll answer that and
then I'll ask you a follow up. It is rapid fire, boys.
It's. A good thing we can edit.
I In the process of talking to people every day, what have I
learned about myself? I reckon I've learned that I can
change my mind more than I thought.
I actually thought I was quite like stubborn and would be very
stuck in an opinion. But I think when you do speak to
lots of different, different people, pick different
expertise. I yeah, I do have a capability
to, to change my opinion, especially when, you know, I
think the, the new person I met, the new perspective is, is is
like, you know, they come from a place of logic.
Yeah, it's a good, good question, Joe.
The, the way I'd sort of answer it is I think about the, I think
it's a Dunning Kruger effect. And I think about like where,
where you are on, on the, the range of sort of knowing
something about a, a particular kind of subject.
And kind of bit bizarrely, I feel like we, we learn more
every every day about mining. And you know the, the gist of it
is that you, you think you know a whole lot more when you're at
the beginning of the journey and.
You know, every day for the last two years, we, we learn more,
but I feel like I know less and less and less.
And there's so many smart people out there that have such sort of
nuanced and well thought out views on, on topics that we sort
of dive into for a for a couple of days.
And yeah. And sort of got to, got to stay
true to it and think you're, you're learning more.
But it's, it's amazing how much is out there and, and the
knowledge that people sort of build up like yourself doing
something for 20-30 years. And yeah, to to finish that
piece off, we're we're pretty grateful that the people do
share their their knowledge with us.
What have you learned about asking questions?
Say less. Bingo.
I'm working on that one still. But yeah, the, I think it's like
anything, interviewing people is, is a skill and you don't get
good at it overnight, right. So you need to just work on it
and work on it and work on it and, and yeah, hopefully in 1020
years maybe you'll be OK at it. Yeah, no, I actually think I
don't listen to you guys everyday, but I, I do think you
ask, generally speaking, you ask good questions and that that is
a skill. And I think, I mean it, I think
you come to it. And but I, I do think you hit
the nail on the head though. It's talking less than listening
more. Is is probably the answer in
that that was really what I had to learn when I started doing
this. It's hard when you like to talk,
isn't? It, it isn't anymore, but yeah,
it, it, it probably it, it probably that's the the big
transition. And as a business, what have you
found is the biggest challenge? I am loving the silence.
The, the biggest, the biggest challenge is sort of staying,
staying true to the, the kind of mission you, you set out for
when, when money gets involved, right?
You, you start out and we and we start out wanting to be
independent and not take money from, from mining companies.
And like, it's not that mining companies have come and offered
us big cash, you know, paychecks or anything like that, but you
know, it's all the stuff on the edges, you know, and once you
start kind of doing this and doing that, you get, you get
distracted or maybe you get, you get kind of sloppy on the
fringes. And I think just staying true is
the the the most important thing.
Yeah, I and I, I kind of build off that.
It's just it's focus. I'd say it's like, yeah, one,
one thing someone else in media once said to us was it's much
more important what you say no to than what you say yes to.
And, you know, remembering to say no very, very often is,
yeah, it's a big challenge. Well.
When I met you guys and I asked you what your day jobs were,
What are you saying? He said.
He said, no, this is what we do. And I thought, well, I I felt
like a shit because I was like, I'm not, I didn't, I didn't mean
it as an insult. I just, Yeah, You hadn't been
doing it very long. I figured you guys must like
have jobs. Yeah, I don't even know if it
was paying the bills completely back then, Joe, but it was.
We're all just a bit he. Was all pro bono.
We're all a bit delinquent and thought we would give it a crack
and if it doesn't work, it doesn't work.
But we're still here two years later, which is a is a relief.
Well, give my regards to Maddie and the next time I'm in town
I'm coming calling for one of those money in mind shirts.
Yeah, we'll, we'll, we'd love to have you in the studio and.
You know what I and this is, I'm going to invite Dwayne Sparks to
be on this podcast with me when I'm in Perth.
Call out Dwayne. Make it happen.
If anyone, yeah, if anyone can make him comment, it's you, Joe.
I, I, yeah. I'd, I'd, we'd, we'd all welcome
that opportunity. So let's hope it happens.
Well, I I think it will. I have never met him either, but
he seems like a swell guy. I think we're going to have to
go to Katani to to meet him because he keeps running away.
Well, I'll go wherever. I mean this.
This is my mission. This is like a a pilgrimage
halfway across the earth. To meet Dwayne.
Seeking Dwayne Sparks. That can be the name of the
episode. All right, guys.
Well, I think you're done with me so.
Thank you so much, Joe. We're never done with you.
The industry will never be done with you because you have been
with it forever. So thank you so much for for for
sharing your insight, your time, your knowledge of the the past,
present and future. We really.
Appreciate it. You'll have a.
You'll have a mention in my book.
Those pesky kids from Perth. Nice alliteration, all right.
Cheers, Joe. See ya.
Thank you very much, Mr. Lithium, for connecting with us
back in Australia. Good work boys.
Loved it, thanks to Joe. It was a yeah, a pleasure to
catch up with him and and just take stock of of everything in
a, in a market that's been pretty tumultuous over over the
last couple. Of years I'll see you went
podcast for podcast on to you guys at the end.
He did. Yeah, he did.
It was. The condition of doing the
interview, Maddie, we'll extend that.
Big thank you, Trev to our awesome partners.
Get your tickets for the GRX conference May.
I'm guard, I've got to book me tickets after this actually.
May 20 to May 22nd in Brizzy. Yeah mate, can't wait.
The Centre of Tech and innovation count codes on the
show notes. I'll check the LinkedIn post up.
Use the code otherwise they'll think we're shit.
Buddy mentioned in the show MMS and grounded.
We're got bloody sandy ground sports CR insurance K drill WA
water wars quattro kca black diamond drilling services the
cross boundary energy udaru. Information contained in this
episode of Money of Mine is of general nature only and does not
take into account the objectives, financial situation
or needs of any particular person.
Before making any investment decision, you should consult
with your financial advisor and consider how appropriate the
advice is to your objectives financial situation.
And needs.