1 00:00:00,960 --> 00:00:03,960 Well, the the capability really came from the West. 2 00:00:04,200 --> 00:00:09,440 Truth be told, we quit doing it. And they have a huge cost 3 00:00:09,760 --> 00:00:12,240 advantage. You know, when they were talking 4 00:00:12,240 --> 00:00:15,240 about technologies that they were going to might limit the 5 00:00:15,240 --> 00:00:18,720 export of and one of the things they talked about was Hard Rock 6 00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:22,840 conversion. And it was like, really, we 7 00:00:22,840 --> 00:00:27,600 actually started that. Righto Buddy Waters Lithium 8 00:00:27,600 --> 00:00:30,520 Spectacular Carmen, you're white boys. 9 00:00:30,600 --> 00:00:33,000 You know the best place to charge a lithium battery. 10 00:00:33,080 --> 00:00:36,080 Tell me, Matthew. In a charging station, probably 11 00:00:36,080 --> 00:00:39,280 in a grounded camp, they can put them in and 'cause you know 12 00:00:39,280 --> 00:00:42,960 what, 'cause they don't build on the plan, they design the plan 13 00:00:43,200 --> 00:00:45,760 and then they build that design concept. 14 00:00:45,960 --> 00:00:48,720 Construct, mate. Absolute experts, mate. 15 00:00:48,720 --> 00:00:53,560 You can have a look at this joint, this is Subiaco on a mine 16 00:00:53,560 --> 00:00:57,080 site and you see grounded zone KD Dore walking around here. 17 00:00:57,080 --> 00:00:59,680 I swear that is the animated version of KD Dore. 18 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:05,080 It's been model off but you can but unbelievable quality. 19 00:01:05,080 --> 00:01:10,200 That is what you will see in real life once the grounded team 20 00:01:10,360 --> 00:01:13,040 unleash their expertise. On camp, camp is the wrong word. 21 00:01:13,040 --> 00:01:15,160 We need, we need, we need a a new word for what these are, 22 00:01:15,160 --> 00:01:17,760 because this is revolutionized accommodation on a mine site. 23 00:01:18,000 --> 00:01:19,000 Resort. Resort. 24 00:01:20,240 --> 00:01:24,760 Resort Village, Yeah, it's, it's got, it's got to make work in 25 00:01:24,760 --> 00:01:26,440 there. Happy city dwellings in the 26 00:01:26,440 --> 00:01:27,400 Bush. Love it. 27 00:01:27,560 --> 00:01:31,080 Designed concept and constructed by the grounded group. 28 00:01:31,080 --> 00:01:33,400 Go grounded right? Did they build their own 29 00:01:33,400 --> 00:01:35,240 building? They probably did down West 30 00:01:35,240 --> 00:01:36,040 Perth. I think they did. 31 00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:38,040 Yeah. Yeah, definitely designed it. 32 00:01:39,000 --> 00:01:40,680 Love to know that. Anyway, back to Lithium. 33 00:01:41,080 --> 00:01:45,640 Mr. Joe Lowry. Mr. Lithium come back. 34 00:01:45,640 --> 00:01:47,640 Bloody sorry I couldn't join us on this one. 35 00:01:47,640 --> 00:01:48,960 I hope you gave him more regards. 36 00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:53,120 Great fella. And what's what's the vibe? 37 00:01:53,480 --> 00:01:56,200 What is the vibe? The vibe is that we want to be 38 00:01:56,200 --> 00:02:00,000 counter cyclical, Matthew. And as we sort of discussed in 39 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:03,640 the show, lithium is very beaten up, no surprise to anyone and 40 00:02:03,920 --> 00:02:06,800 why not have a chat about it with none other than Mr. 41 00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:08,680 Lithium. We covered everything under the 42 00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:13,000 sun in Lithium world from the M&A that we've seen in recent 43 00:02:13,000 --> 00:02:16,560 times, the supply demand dynamic and the conversation really came 44 00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:19,960 off the back of his awesome write up on how the Chinese have 45 00:02:19,960 --> 00:02:22,520 dominated the lithium space in the battery metal, battery 46 00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:27,680 metals and battery making arena for the last 5-10 years. 47 00:02:27,680 --> 00:02:30,480 So I think that's all you kind of need to know for this one. 48 00:02:30,480 --> 00:02:33,240 So counter cyclical you say and find something that's going down 49 00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:35,640 shit loads and hope it goes back up. 50 00:02:36,640 --> 00:02:41,040 Yeah, exactly in a nutshell. Right now, let's get into Mr. 51 00:02:41,040 --> 00:02:44,640 Lithium. Mr. Lithium, we are very excited 52 00:02:44,640 --> 00:02:47,800 to to have you back on the show. It's been well over a year now 53 00:02:47,800 --> 00:02:51,280 and with where where lithium markets have been and the kind 54 00:02:51,280 --> 00:02:54,880 of general sentiment around the space, we thought it'd be a 55 00:02:54,880 --> 00:02:56,640 great time to get you back on the show. 56 00:02:56,640 --> 00:03:00,680 And then you actually published a, a little piece on LinkedIn, 57 00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:04,400 the Lithium Art of War. And yeah, I, I never thought I'd 58 00:03:04,400 --> 00:03:08,040 lead in the podcast with a bit of Sun Tzu, but I think it's 59 00:03:08,080 --> 00:03:08,840 quite. Fitting. 60 00:03:10,320 --> 00:03:13,600 Given, given your paper so that there was some fascinating sort 61 00:03:13,600 --> 00:03:17,720 of points and it sort of puts into perspective the the rise 62 00:03:17,720 --> 00:03:21,360 and rise of, of China and the, and the kind of falling off of 63 00:03:21,360 --> 00:03:23,400 the West. But yeah, came came to start the 64 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:26,680 podcast to understand what was the the inspiration to to put 65 00:03:26,680 --> 00:03:32,080 into words what has happened over the past 1520 years in the 66 00:03:32,080 --> 00:03:40,120 lithium arena. Well, as a proud American, I B 67 00:03:40,120 --> 00:03:45,160 whale are falling off a Cliff, falling off the lithium Cliff 68 00:03:46,040 --> 00:03:50,440 over the years over the you know, when I started, everything 69 00:03:50,440 --> 00:03:54,040 that went to the battery industry was from the US, mined 70 00:03:54,040 --> 00:03:58,960 in the US, processed in the US and and that was it was short 71 00:03:58,960 --> 00:04:00,520 lived. It was only three or four years 72 00:04:00,520 --> 00:04:04,360 because we did not have the capacity at the time and had to 73 00:04:04,360 --> 00:04:06,560 make a transition from Hard Rock to brine. 74 00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:14,560 But I really tire of the whining on the US. 75 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:16,560 Well, I won't even limit it to the US. 76 00:04:16,560 --> 00:04:22,840 Europe too, and and frame it more broadly, North America and 77 00:04:22,840 --> 00:04:28,600 Europe about in China's unfair competition and how they've 78 00:04:28,600 --> 00:04:32,040 dominated. They were terrible at all of 79 00:04:32,040 --> 00:04:38,240 this for the better part of 15 years, but they stuck with their 80 00:04:38,240 --> 00:04:42,080 program. You know, I can go back is 81 00:04:43,280 --> 00:04:48,360 recently is 2009, 2010. Nobody would buy Chinese 82 00:04:48,360 --> 00:04:50,840 material unless it was low end stuff. 83 00:04:51,360 --> 00:04:56,520 The European Greece guys would buy their hydroxide, but the 84 00:04:56,520 --> 00:04:59,520 Koreans and the Japanese, who at that time still were dominant in 85 00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:04,800 the battery supply chain, they wouldn't touch Chinese material. 86 00:05:04,800 --> 00:05:09,800 Gangfen didn't even start making carbonate and hydroxide until 87 00:05:10,400 --> 00:05:13,840 the last 15 years, so they existed for over a decade before 88 00:05:13,840 --> 00:05:21,040 they even were in a financial position to put the capital in 89 00:05:21,040 --> 00:05:25,040 to convert. So it it's been an interesting 90 00:05:25,040 --> 00:05:27,440 rise and you know, highlighted gang fan. 91 00:05:27,440 --> 00:05:30,120 I could have just as easily talked about Tianchi, although I 92 00:05:30,120 --> 00:05:32,920 don't think their story is quite as interesting as gang fans. 93 00:05:33,640 --> 00:05:37,520 But then BYD also I, I met BYD before I met Gangfen. 94 00:05:38,640 --> 00:05:44,320 I, I met BYD 25 years ago and was supplying them carbonate and 95 00:05:45,280 --> 00:05:49,480 cathode materials, which we made it a joint venture in Japan. 96 00:05:49,480 --> 00:05:54,640 And I saw that rise because their beginnings were very, very 97 00:05:54,640 --> 00:05:57,600 humble as well. And CADL before. 98 00:05:57,800 --> 00:06:02,320 They're they're doing EVs right. Oh, yeah, this, this was all 99 00:06:03,160 --> 00:06:07,200 they went up into the hinterland and got a bunch of teenage girls 100 00:06:07,200 --> 00:06:10,320 to make crummy batteries by hand. 101 00:06:10,920 --> 00:06:13,760 And, and literally, I mean, they put their capital in the testing 102 00:06:13,760 --> 00:06:17,000 equipment because back then, and, and this is really 103 00:06:17,000 --> 00:06:23,840 fascinating, the first time I went to their facility, they 104 00:06:23,840 --> 00:06:28,560 were bragging about how making things by hand was actually a 105 00:06:28,560 --> 00:06:31,400 strength because they could pivot faster than Sony could. 106 00:06:32,240 --> 00:06:36,000 But they also were honest enough to say that most of their 107 00:06:36,000 --> 00:06:39,800 batteries couldn't be sold to the international cell phone 108 00:06:39,800 --> 00:06:41,800 market, which back then was two names. 109 00:06:41,800 --> 00:06:45,440 You guys probably don't. You might be familiar with Nokia 110 00:06:45,760 --> 00:06:47,600 and Motorola. They were the big cell phone 111 00:06:47,600 --> 00:06:49,160 guys back then. I mean, it kind of. 112 00:06:49,440 --> 00:06:52,560 This was after the Gordon Gekko shoe case. 113 00:06:53,480 --> 00:06:55,360 We're not that young, Joe. We remember, We remember those. 114 00:06:57,880 --> 00:06:59,000 I reckon we both owned one of them. 115 00:07:01,120 --> 00:07:06,080 And, and the United States did not have, I mean my cell when I 116 00:07:06,080 --> 00:07:08,000 lived in Asia, I had three cell phones. 117 00:07:08,000 --> 00:07:10,480 I had a China cell because roaming wasn't really a thing 118 00:07:10,480 --> 00:07:12,800 early on. So I had a China cell phone for 119 00:07:12,800 --> 00:07:15,320 trips to China. I was living in Japan. 120 00:07:15,320 --> 00:07:17,640 I had a Japanese cell phone and I had AUS cell phone. 121 00:07:17,640 --> 00:07:22,440 And my US cell phone had a nickel metal hydride battery 122 00:07:22,440 --> 00:07:26,320 back then. So it was pre lithium? 123 00:07:27,560 --> 00:07:29,040 Yeah. And look, looking at the market 124 00:07:29,040 --> 00:07:32,720 caps of these companies, I think just to, to state the numbers so 125 00:07:32,720 --> 00:07:36,760 people really appreciate it like BYD is in Aussie dollar terms 126 00:07:36,760 --> 00:07:41,960 $215 billion, so 2/3 of that to get the US market cap. 127 00:07:41,960 --> 00:07:45,360 And cattle is about the same like these companies are they're 128 00:07:45,880 --> 00:07:49,800 bigger than BHB now. It's, it's remarkable the, the, 129 00:07:50,080 --> 00:07:53,560 the rise and rise. I want, I want to hone in on, on 130 00:07:53,560 --> 00:07:57,880 cattle for a second, Joe, because the, the really 131 00:07:57,880 --> 00:08:01,680 interesting part that stuck out to me from your writing was on 132 00:08:01,680 --> 00:08:05,800 their appreciation of vertical integration and what they learnt 133 00:08:05,840 --> 00:08:11,160 in the the latest wild ride that we saw in that 2122 boom. 134 00:08:11,720 --> 00:08:14,960 And they, you know, went on to, to purchase these lipid light 135 00:08:15,440 --> 00:08:18,080 operations. How do you kind of put that in, 136 00:08:18,080 --> 00:08:21,080 in perspective and you know, think about how they might 137 00:08:21,440 --> 00:08:24,200 utilize those operations and the learnings they've got from that 138 00:08:24,680 --> 00:08:27,400 going forward over the next sort of 1020 years? 139 00:08:28,840 --> 00:08:34,880 I I think it's even broader than just what CATL did, but to go 140 00:08:34,880 --> 00:08:43,400 with the question in the 2022 run out, they had to try to keep 141 00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:46,200 their share. They had a a program where they 142 00:08:46,200 --> 00:08:49,360 were guaranteeing that the form the price lithium price in the 143 00:08:49,360 --> 00:08:54,240 formula would be basically the equivalent of 20,000 pricing, 144 00:08:54,240 --> 00:08:58,080 which they lost a lot of money on is the price continued to 145 00:08:58,080 --> 00:09:01,840 rise. And these guys are very smart 146 00:09:01,840 --> 00:09:05,480 people and they move fast. They didn't like what was 147 00:09:05,480 --> 00:09:09,800 happening. They realized that a price is 148 00:09:09,800 --> 00:09:15,480 just going to keep going up, that they could exploit what 149 00:09:15,480 --> 00:09:20,280 were very well known resources. They just weren't economic in 150 00:09:20,280 --> 00:09:26,400 any other lithium cycle. And it goes way beyond that, 151 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:29,360 though. They, the lipid light came on 152 00:09:30,120 --> 00:09:37,200 and then all the African move and they figured out I think 153 00:09:37,200 --> 00:09:42,040 really quickly how they're going to manage the next cycle because 154 00:09:42,040 --> 00:09:45,880 there's layers of, you know, the cost curve. 155 00:09:46,520 --> 00:09:50,800 Your last lithium guest talked about the, you know, the concept 156 00:09:50,800 --> 00:09:54,920 of the steepening cost curve and that is certainly true. 157 00:09:54,920 --> 00:10:00,920 And now I think that is going to be the the buffer on significant 158 00:10:00,920 --> 00:10:05,280 price runs in the future because all the Chinese converters know 159 00:10:05,280 --> 00:10:11,360 where this stuff is, whether it's DSO or 2.5 or whatever the 160 00:10:11,360 --> 00:10:14,400 grades are. Africa's has such a diversity of 161 00:10:15,200 --> 00:10:17,440 they have decent lithium and they have a lot of garbage. 162 00:10:17,440 --> 00:10:22,200 But when the price runs up to 35,000 and 40,000 and then all 163 00:10:22,200 --> 00:10:25,760 the way up to 80, you can use any of that stuff. 164 00:10:26,200 --> 00:10:36,880 And I think that the last cycle taught all of China, all their 165 00:10:36,880 --> 00:10:42,280 lithium supply chain, how they'll react next time. 166 00:10:42,280 --> 00:10:46,240 And it it seemed quick in 2022-2023, it'll be quicker next 167 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:49,520 time. But I also believe there will be 168 00:10:49,520 --> 00:10:52,840 a shortage and there will be a price spike because on the other 169 00:10:52,840 --> 00:10:56,960 hand of what CAT LS done and, and I think there's fair 170 00:10:56,960 --> 00:11:00,560 consensus that there's a lot of misinformation out there. 171 00:11:00,800 --> 00:11:04,840 If you go back to 2022, they were CHL was pumping the sodium 172 00:11:04,840 --> 00:11:07,800 ion battery and how great it was going to be in the share it was 173 00:11:07,800 --> 00:11:10,400 going to get. And they, they knew the 174 00:11:10,400 --> 00:11:14,720 limitations of that. But it, it was rhetoric that 175 00:11:15,040 --> 00:11:19,800 scared the West And that's, that's the game. 176 00:11:20,040 --> 00:11:26,280 They've they've done a great job of disincentivizing capital from 177 00:11:26,280 --> 00:11:31,240 chasing what I would call mediocre projects. 178 00:11:31,640 --> 00:11:35,800 I mediocre projects for MMS all class boys. 179 00:11:36,840 --> 00:11:39,920 Ask me anything about MMS and mining. 180 00:11:40,640 --> 00:11:43,640 Does open pit mining have a relationship with underground 181 00:11:43,640 --> 00:11:46,440 mining Matthew? Interesting question. 182 00:11:46,680 --> 00:11:52,160 Well, let's consider the black cat have just taken pretty much 183 00:11:52,160 --> 00:11:54,080 saying Myra is going underground. 184 00:11:54,600 --> 00:11:58,560 Now if we could link that back to MMS, their superior 185 00:11:58,560 --> 00:12:02,160 performance at my RE getting there quicker, obviously leaving 186 00:12:02,160 --> 00:12:05,600 it in Shmico condition. All the bloody walls are just 187 00:12:05,600 --> 00:12:11,080 ready to punch portals in. I would say yes, MMS have pretty 188 00:12:11,080 --> 00:12:14,440 much blackout have said, holy shit, we can go underground now. 189 00:12:14,440 --> 00:12:18,240 We weren't expecting to be here. Thank you MMS, that is pretty 190 00:12:18,240 --> 00:12:20,640 much what's happening. So answer your question, JD. 191 00:12:20,760 --> 00:12:25,520 Yes, if you mind the open pit quick at a superior quality. 192 00:12:25,560 --> 00:12:29,320 Yes, it makes your underground better and sooner. 193 00:12:29,360 --> 00:12:32,760 If I understand you're right, Matthew, that means earlier cash 194 00:12:32,760 --> 00:12:36,280 flow for you the mining company? Well mate you probably just 195 00:12:36,280 --> 00:12:37,720 start. You're just getting double the 196 00:12:37,720 --> 00:12:39,200 cash flow cause the pits still go you. 197 00:12:39,240 --> 00:12:41,280 Didn't sterilise the ore body, you looked after it. 198 00:12:41,360 --> 00:12:45,120 Twice as much cash flow, five times as quicker and your share 199 00:12:45,120 --> 00:12:49,040 price goes up like Black Cat when MMS is your trusted mining 200 00:12:49,040 --> 00:12:50,440 partner. Seems like a no brainer to. 201 00:12:50,440 --> 00:12:51,800 Me. I didn't know what? 202 00:12:52,000 --> 00:12:57,080 Let's get back into boot, Joe. Just to tease that out even 203 00:12:57,080 --> 00:12:59,560 more, Joe, like what's the, what's the, the economic 204 00:12:59,560 --> 00:13:04,840 incentive for them to do do so? Well, take BYD and CATL 205 00:13:04,840 --> 00:13:07,760 together. They're almost half of global 206 00:13:07,760 --> 00:13:12,920 lithium demand, two companies. We never had that situation 207 00:13:12,920 --> 00:13:18,000 before. If you look at 1.2 terawatt 208 00:13:18,000 --> 00:13:23,880 hours total last year roughly and BYD and CATL being half of 209 00:13:23,880 --> 00:13:28,600 that, and I'm a little more conservative on my lithium 210 00:13:28,600 --> 00:13:31,120 intensity than your guest from Singapore. 211 00:13:31,600 --> 00:13:37,680 But anyway you calculate it, they are far and away the 212 00:13:37,680 --> 00:13:41,360 dominant purchaser of lithium values in whatever form, whether 213 00:13:41,360 --> 00:13:46,120 they're it sells, cathode, whatever, and they have every 214 00:13:46,120 --> 00:13:52,000 incentive in the world to run a mine or a couple of mines at a 215 00:13:52,000 --> 00:13:55,680 loss. If you're buying 3 or 400,000 216 00:13:55,680 --> 00:14:02,120 tons of LCE and you take a beating on 4050 sixty thousand 217 00:14:02,120 --> 00:14:10,520 tons, but you keep your other purchases 8910 dollars below 218 00:14:10,520 --> 00:14:15,560 what they would run up to if you weren't doing that, it's it's 219 00:14:15,560 --> 00:14:21,920 not rocket science. If we, if we go back once more, 220 00:14:21,920 --> 00:14:25,680 Joe, to, to really set, set the foundation for, for this rise of 221 00:14:25,680 --> 00:14:29,360 these, these Chinese companies. One of the other points you, you 222 00:14:29,360 --> 00:14:32,680 make and, and others have sort of made and you see it across 223 00:14:32,680 --> 00:14:35,720 all, all industries. But you know, you know, very 224 00:14:35,720 --> 00:14:39,240 obviously in, in the AV and the battery sort of space is the, 225 00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:43,800 the way in which government and industry kind of mesh and, and 226 00:14:43,800 --> 00:14:47,320 work together and that's kind of coordinate to, to achieve these 227 00:14:47,880 --> 00:14:51,320 strategic goals. When, when you look at like BYD 228 00:14:51,320 --> 00:14:55,800 and and cattle now, do you, do you see them as being able to 229 00:14:55,800 --> 00:14:58,600 kind of run their own race and the the government has kind of 230 00:14:58,600 --> 00:15:01,360 just tapped them in line when, when that needs to kind of 231 00:15:01,360 --> 00:15:03,640 happen, but they're they're free to sort of do so? 232 00:15:03,640 --> 00:15:07,720 Or how, how do you view the the government and enterprise at a 233 00:15:07,720 --> 00:15:12,400 relationship today? I think you just phrased it very 234 00:15:12,400 --> 00:15:17,880 well. They let them run until they 235 00:15:17,880 --> 00:15:21,360 have something to say. And I, I think you, you saw that 236 00:15:21,360 --> 00:15:25,720 I, I don't know if it was the March meeting two years ago or 237 00:15:26,360 --> 00:15:31,120 when Xi Jinping told Robin Zong that he ought to be careful 238 00:15:31,120 --> 00:15:35,400 about going to the US and you needed to be dealing with 239 00:15:35,400 --> 00:15:41,080 friendly entities that I'd, I'd have to go back and, and Google 240 00:15:41,080 --> 00:15:43,680 that article. But it was, it was pretty clear. 241 00:15:43,800 --> 00:15:47,560 And I think everybody knows the Jack Ma story. 242 00:15:47,720 --> 00:15:51,040 That's not a, that's not a lithium story, but you know, 243 00:15:51,040 --> 00:15:54,280 they turn Jack Ma into a verb, you know, you get Jack Ma. 244 00:15:54,800 --> 00:15:58,280 So I I think there's been a. Bit of a bit of a change lately 245 00:15:58,280 --> 00:16:01,680 though, right? The, The, the attitude towards 246 00:16:01,920 --> 00:16:05,440 successful business people is, I don't know, it's, it's kind of 247 00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:08,600 altered a little bit. And, and Jack Ma has, you know, 248 00:16:08,600 --> 00:16:11,240 been the, been the face of that. You've you've seen him in public 249 00:16:11,240 --> 00:16:13,200 again, which you didn't say from the youth. 250 00:16:13,880 --> 00:16:19,000 I think that's optics, I think. It's all optics, right? 251 00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:25,320 Yeah, I, I, not to be completely cynical, but having lived there, 252 00:16:25,320 --> 00:16:32,280 having watched it, knowing some of these people, you don't want 253 00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:35,480 to be the richest guy in China. You want to be 3 or 4. 254 00:16:36,360 --> 00:16:40,040 When I lived there, there was two or three years where the 255 00:16:40,040 --> 00:16:43,280 person named the richest person in China was in jail the next 256 00:16:43,280 --> 00:16:45,840 year. I I used to love that saying 257 00:16:45,840 --> 00:16:48,560 that the fastest way to to die in in China is to become a 258 00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:53,720 billionaire. Yeah, but I mean, probably. 259 00:16:53,720 --> 00:16:56,080 Offended an entire nation there, so maybe I'll retract that. 260 00:16:59,680 --> 00:17:04,640 I admire what China's done. I mean, that is my bottom line 261 00:17:04,640 --> 00:17:09,160 from the what I put up on on LinkedIn is that I think that 262 00:17:09,960 --> 00:17:15,200 it's very arrogant of North America or Europe to think they 263 00:17:15,200 --> 00:17:19,800 can do in a short period of time what it literally took China 264 00:17:19,800 --> 00:17:25,880 decades to do with all the support put in place with. 265 00:17:27,280 --> 00:17:32,040 I hired a lot of people when I lived in China and I always said 266 00:17:32,040 --> 00:17:37,600 I would much rather have to pick from a pool of Chinese town than 267 00:17:37,600 --> 00:17:40,600 a pool of American town. It's a tremendously industrious 268 00:17:41,760 --> 00:17:44,080 nation, right? Everybody wanted to get ahead 269 00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:50,320 their their nuances to how you manage Chinese young people 270 00:17:51,040 --> 00:17:55,760 there. They do probably need a little 271 00:17:55,760 --> 00:18:02,400 more stroking in terms of having a lot of the I managed different 272 00:18:02,400 --> 00:18:05,120 age groups and the young people were a little more aggressive. 273 00:18:05,120 --> 00:18:09,800 But the people that had mom and dad went through the Cultural 274 00:18:09,800 --> 00:18:11,960 Revolution. They had a respect for authority 275 00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:16,640 that you didn't really see so much in in the US at the time. 276 00:18:17,200 --> 00:18:21,720 But they're the 50 years of communism I used to say when I 277 00:18:21,720 --> 00:18:25,160 was living there didn't beat the entrepreneurial spirit out of 278 00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:29,320 the Chinese people. That's that that point is, is 279 00:18:29,320 --> 00:18:31,360 often a bit lost in the commentary around China. 280 00:18:31,360 --> 00:18:34,400 It's just the, the relative competitiveness that does exist 281 00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:37,360 amongst, you know, the the centralized government. 282 00:18:39,760 --> 00:18:44,440 It was the old saw, especially in in the early days of cathode 283 00:18:44,440 --> 00:18:50,760 was once a company started making decent cathode, then one 284 00:18:50,760 --> 00:18:53,640 of their lead guys would quit, go down the street and open up 285 00:18:54,000 --> 00:18:58,760 another cathode supplier. It was just people wanted to be 286 00:18:58,760 --> 00:19:09,480 their own boss. And I admired the really the 287 00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:14,040 hard work, the the work ethic was impressive. 288 00:19:14,040 --> 00:19:23,400 And so I may not like Mr. XI much, but I admire the Chinese 289 00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:25,480 people and will continue to do so. 290 00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:28,560 The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without 291 00:19:28,560 --> 00:19:31,160 fighting. How does this relate to lithium 292 00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:35,080 so. Well, it's it really does. 293 00:19:35,160 --> 00:19:39,440 And not to hype my podcast, but if you go back and listen to the 294 00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:43,280 episode Not Lost in Translation with Lee Lamb Bing and Wang Xiao 295 00:19:43,280 --> 00:19:45,320 Shen, I mean, they talked about the early days. 296 00:19:45,320 --> 00:19:53,000 They had to deal with everybody. They were the supplicants. 297 00:19:53,000 --> 00:20:02,240 They never, there was never a discouraging word said, but they 298 00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:04,320 knew where they wanted to go. And that was one of the things 299 00:20:04,320 --> 00:20:07,680 that I always told people that we're dealing with them because 300 00:20:07,680 --> 00:20:13,000 I I made a presentation at Panorama Minero event last 301 00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:17,040 October and I showed gang fence slides. 302 00:20:17,280 --> 00:20:23,720 That they had presented to me in 2005 about wanting to become a 303 00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:32,000 strong domestic supplier and then they wanted to become a 304 00:20:32,000 --> 00:20:35,400 regional player. And this is not in carbonate and 305 00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:37,320 hydroxide. This was in the downstream 306 00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:40,800 because they they had enough capital to to have a metal plan 307 00:20:40,800 --> 00:20:43,240 and they had enough capital to try to do butyl lithium. 308 00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:48,680 But I think if you look at the three companies I highlight in 309 00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:57,880 that article, they all started off with technology from other 310 00:20:57,880 --> 00:21:03,360 people. I mean, CATL technology was came 311 00:21:03,360 --> 00:21:08,320 from Japan and or ATL did. And then CATL was an offshoot of 312 00:21:08,320 --> 00:21:13,640 that. And there was always the, the 313 00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:17,440 Chinese concept of they would always say, you know, Big 314 00:21:17,440 --> 00:21:23,840 Brother, I need help. And it wasn't, it wasn't until 315 00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:30,680 they got to the where they are today that they now publicly 316 00:21:30,680 --> 00:21:35,560 still show the humility. But those guys are very 317 00:21:35,560 --> 00:21:37,120 confident in who they are and where they're going. 318 00:21:37,120 --> 00:21:39,920 And they're certainly not afraid of anybody outside of China. 319 00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:45,120 On on the conversion front, like just how how many, like how many 320 00:21:45,120 --> 00:21:47,760 years ahead like realistically would that be if if the you 321 00:21:48,280 --> 00:21:51,480 know, if the if the the West tried to replicate some of that 322 00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:56,120 some of that capability. Well, the the capability really 323 00:21:56,120 --> 00:22:00,840 came from the West. Truth be told, they learned how 324 00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:02,720 to convert spot. You mean from us. 325 00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:08,680 We didn't learn. Now we quit doing it and they 326 00:22:08,680 --> 00:22:14,600 have a huge cost advantage. But you know, that's that's 327 00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:18,560 something that I always push back on is that, you know, when 328 00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:21,840 they were talking about technologies that they were 329 00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:24,480 going to might limit the export of and one of the things they 330 00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:27,040 talked about was Hard Rock conversion. 331 00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:31,400 And it was like really, we actually started that. 332 00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:36,520 So, but I take the question seriously. 333 00:22:37,480 --> 00:22:43,920 I look at Tesla, Corpus Christi, they announced that the the Cal 334 00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:47,600 sire was turning, but they haven't, I haven't I haven't 335 00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:49,920 seen a lot of announcements about the great quality product 336 00:22:49,920 --> 00:22:53,600 that they're producing because it's not happening as far as I 337 00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:56,280 know. I don't want to get into trouble 338 00:22:56,360 --> 00:23:02,040 if they have been sneaking product to cathode makers, but I 339 00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:08,680 think I would know. I do think we're more hamstrung 340 00:23:08,680 --> 00:23:12,800 on the permitting side, the financing side. 341 00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:21,200 And and I think it's probably, I would say the gap in simply 342 00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:26,760 lithium. We can't catch up and we 343 00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:30,920 shouldn't even try to catch up. But we do need our own supply 344 00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:36,400 chain too. And that's just because when I 345 00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:41,120 was there and watching early days, when I was first making 346 00:23:41,120 --> 00:23:44,720 trips once a month between 2000 and 2005, before I moved to 347 00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:49,880 China from Japan, there were not that many converters. 348 00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:57,520 And now I, I don't, I don't have any idea how many dozen 349 00:23:57,520 --> 00:23:59,480 conversion facilities there are now. 350 00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:06,320 But you, you had easy money when they were trying to develop the 351 00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:11,440 West, the the regional banks were propping up people that 352 00:24:13,440 --> 00:24:17,600 weren't making a dime for years. And we don't, we don't have that 353 00:24:17,600 --> 00:24:22,320 kind of situation in America. So I'd say that's as much the 354 00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:26,680 problem is just the pure technology because I can get on 355 00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:32,840 the phone and call a bunch of people that live within a few 356 00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:36,520 hours of where I'm sitting that could get a converter bill if 357 00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:39,440 they had the money and and they could put it into operation 358 00:24:39,600 --> 00:24:45,160 relatively quickly if they could get a permitted if all the 359 00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:49,040 things that you have to do besides just the engineering. 360 00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:55,360 So to your point on, on us needing to have our own supply 361 00:24:55,360 --> 00:24:58,120 chain in in the West and, and needing to compete, what what do 362 00:24:58,120 --> 00:25:03,040 you make of the, the IRA and where that kind of stands now 363 00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:07,400 and what that kind of looks, looks like and you know any 364 00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:12,520 other sort of similar government type package to, to kind of chip 365 00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:19,800 away at China's dominance? Well, I am heartened that we are 366 00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:28,600 building factor Pass and all the issues that were in the way have 367 00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:33,880 been surmounted and that that's being built. 368 00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:37,200 And you know, it's, that was a huge loan. 369 00:25:37,200 --> 00:25:40,720 I mean, 2.3 billion is nothing to sneeze at. 370 00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:44,600 And then it required some other additional financing and that's 371 00:25:44,600 --> 00:25:48,800 all in place. I think it's being well 372 00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:52,320 supported by the local governments, the, the national 373 00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:56,800 governments. But that's one 40,000 ton plant 374 00:25:57,000 --> 00:26:00,520 that can expand to 80. It's it's a beginning. 375 00:26:02,760 --> 00:26:09,600 The real open question in North America is, well, there's, 376 00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:15,840 there's more than one, but how fast do the Exons and Ecuador's 377 00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:23,480 move Rio Tinto put real money into their lithium effort. 378 00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:26,960 I'm not saying that the oil companies had aren't willing to 379 00:26:26,960 --> 00:26:33,400 put real money in, but so far it's been kind of a slow roll as 380 00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:39,840 they they learn and they're not. It isn't a Manhattan Project 381 00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:43,320 speed scenario. It's probably the the kindest 382 00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:48,360 way to put it. I don't think a company like Rio 383 00:26:48,360 --> 00:26:53,880 is is capable of a Manhattan type style or speed of operation 384 00:26:53,880 --> 00:26:57,160 in in all fairness to them, it's just not their their sort of MO. 385 00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:04,120 Oh, and I, I was thrilled that Rio put the capital in, but I've 386 00:27:04,120 --> 00:27:09,200 said on my podcast, I've said it in writing, I've said it on XI, 387 00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:17,080 don't think they speed this up. I think that they have the 388 00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:21,000 balance sheet to do all the projects that they own, but they 389 00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:29,280 don't have the skills yet. And I, you know, heard a recent 390 00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:34,120 guest talk about all the skills that Arcadium had. 391 00:27:34,120 --> 00:27:37,720 Well, let's, let's, I'll just take it. 392 00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:39,800 I'll just personalize it to my experience. 393 00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:46,280 I left FMC Lithium in 2012. Ten years later, they were 394 00:27:46,280 --> 00:27:50,560 producing the same amount of LC ES as they were when I left. 395 00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:52,880 That's after announcing expansions. 396 00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:57,440 That's after a lot of rhetoric and they didn't execute. 397 00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:09,840 Some of it could be laid on to financial issues, but that to me 398 00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:12,400 was more of an excuse and I think Rio's already made a huge 399 00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:15,880 mistake in keeping that management intact. 400 00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:19,080 They didn't get it done is live in. 401 00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:24,120 They didn't get it done as separately as all chem and they 402 00:28:24,360 --> 00:28:30,640 didn't get it done as arcadium. So why do you want to keep the 403 00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:35,680 same management intact who didn't perform, who just had a 404 00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:40,520 portfolio of really good assets? It and I, and I actually said 405 00:28:40,520 --> 00:28:43,760 that to Rio's head of battery metals at BMO. 406 00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:46,720 I had a meeting with him and said you guys have already made 407 00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:49,040 mistake #1 didn't. They make Paul Graves the head 408 00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:51,200 of CEO of Lithium. He's the CEO. 409 00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:53,800 Yeah, yeah, yeah. I I like Paul. 410 00:28:53,800 --> 00:28:56,080 Paul's a nice guy. Yeah, but let's go. 411 00:28:56,080 --> 00:28:59,240 Let's look at the. You should judge people by the 412 00:28:59,240 --> 00:29:01,640 record. And. 413 00:29:04,560 --> 00:29:07,360 And I yeah, I made the statement when Arcadium was formed. 414 00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:10,160 I made the statement that it made sense to have Paul run it 415 00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:12,520 because he's a banker and he'll, he'll he'll be able to sell it. 416 00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:18,440 And he did that and they should have thanked him and moved on. 417 00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:24,280 What what did you make of the price tag like to to just speak 418 00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:27,960 to that the financial aspect of of that that deal? 419 00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:35,200 I think Paul's a banker and I think Paul got a good price. 420 00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:41,360 I don't think it was as bad as some of Rio Tuno's other deals 421 00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:43,920 maybe, but I don't want to go too far down there. 422 00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:49,120 That's a high bar to to be. Well, that's hence the comment. 423 00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:52,360 I do. I've got enough. 424 00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:55,880 I mean, before we even kind of venture into some of the grounds 425 00:29:55,880 --> 00:29:58,200 of the deal landscape and everything like that. 426 00:29:58,200 --> 00:30:03,040 I feel like the maybe even the most topical thing to talk about 427 00:30:03,040 --> 00:30:06,640 is the last few days we've just been watching the lithium 428 00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:09,360 equities in particular here. I just absolutely crater. 429 00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:12,560 I mean, today as we wake up and we're recording it might be a 430 00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:15,920 bit of a bounce, but it it, it almost seems like there's a a 431 00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:19,600 really huge response to to tariffs as they relate to the 432 00:30:19,760 --> 00:30:23,360 lithium mining equities that we have like pill gang or like, you 433 00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:25,320 know, PLS now they call themselves not pillar minerals. 434 00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:28,520 PLS They're they're like a dollar 2020 odd, but 26 435 00:30:28,520 --> 00:30:33,360 yesterday at some point it's just yeah, amazing and means. 436 00:30:33,400 --> 00:30:36,360 I mean, it's 31 and 34 cents. So I'm I'm still. 437 00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:39,640 I'm still hanging in. So, so is this, is this like, is 438 00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:42,640 this, is this tariffs? Is this is that what this is 439 00:30:42,640 --> 00:30:43,440 like? What are the like? 440 00:30:43,480 --> 00:30:45,520 What's? No, I think, I think the set, 441 00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:51,080 the sentiment in lithium is worse in 2025 than it was in the 442 00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:57,520 dark days of less than $4000 a ton that SQM and Ora Cobre sold 443 00:30:57,520 --> 00:31:02,320 into China at during 2020. In some cases that wasn't their 444 00:31:02,320 --> 00:31:05,640 average price, but it got that low and you're still in the 445 00:31:05,640 --> 00:31:09,960 10,000 range now. But the sentiment is still so 446 00:31:09,960 --> 00:31:13,000 negative. You know, two years ago it, it, 447 00:31:13,240 --> 00:31:17,600 it BMO, every uranium company was talking about they might 448 00:31:17,600 --> 00:31:19,480 have lithium and gold guys were the same. 449 00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:22,560 Now it's the opposite. Every lithium guys like, hey, 450 00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:25,640 maybe we'll go maybe we'll go for uranium. 451 00:31:27,800 --> 00:31:34,320 I I don't think I think it's just the overall the markets 452 00:31:34,320 --> 00:31:42,840 down and it's easy to be negative on lithium used to 453 00:31:42,840 --> 00:31:47,720 track Tesla, you know, several years ago. 454 00:31:48,240 --> 00:31:51,640 And right now, I mean, people that drive Tesla are getting 455 00:31:51,640 --> 00:31:54,760 spit out their cars getting spit on it stop lights because 456 00:31:54,760 --> 00:32:02,040 everybody's mad at Elon. So right now, America's, you 457 00:32:02,040 --> 00:32:05,040 know, going through a moment interesting time. 458 00:32:05,120 --> 00:32:07,520 Well, some of it must, like there must be kind of a part of 459 00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:10,120 it that is related to expectations like in 460 00:32:10,120 --> 00:32:12,080 recessionary conditions, like where's the discretionary spend 461 00:32:12,080 --> 00:32:14,320 on lithium coming from plus combined with how much of the, 462 00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:17,600 you know, the best demand would have come from the US. 463 00:32:17,600 --> 00:32:19,720 And all of a sudden the terrorists might make those, you 464 00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:21,760 know, individual projects or growth forecasts kind of 465 00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:25,240 uneconomic for the time being. And then some short term, you 466 00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:29,320 know, so some of it must be a factor of what is a, what is a 467 00:32:29,320 --> 00:32:31,880 response to the, to the tariffs and kind of recessionary kind of 468 00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:34,520 conjecture. But do you think that in the 469 00:32:34,520 --> 00:32:36,280 long run that kind of just gets washed out? 470 00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:38,880 I I think look what happened today. 471 00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:42,800 The market roared in America. Tariffs pulls. 472 00:32:42,800 --> 00:32:47,760 After Yeah, well, that's just not on China. 473 00:32:48,120 --> 00:32:56,200 My entire my entire point is that give it 90 days to six 474 00:32:56,200 --> 00:32:59,240 months to see what Trump does next. 475 00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:08,080 Yeah, I think, I don't think lithium's suffering more than 476 00:33:08,080 --> 00:33:12,880 the other stocks. I mean, I, I sold some Apple at 477 00:33:12,880 --> 00:33:18,920 236 several weeks ago and bought it back in 180. 478 00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:27,880 So I'm using this time to adjust My Portfolio. 479 00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:32,480 That's what we say. If we if we look at the supply 480 00:33:32,480 --> 00:33:37,600 side of the supply demand dynamic, how do you currently 481 00:33:37,600 --> 00:33:42,320 sort of think about say over the next kind of three years your 482 00:33:42,320 --> 00:33:46,920 kind of view versus consensus on on projects that can get up and 483 00:33:46,920 --> 00:33:48,840 running? Are you, are you a bit more kind 484 00:33:48,840 --> 00:33:52,920 of bullish or do you think the consensus is is a bit lofty? 485 00:33:52,920 --> 00:33:54,200 What do you say that at the moment, Joe? 486 00:33:54,640 --> 00:33:58,200 Well, tell me what you think. Consensus is that that would be 487 00:33:58,200 --> 00:34:03,040 4.1. I think that let's look at South 488 00:34:03,040 --> 00:34:07,720 America. Aaron met with great fanfare, 489 00:34:08,600 --> 00:34:13,560 shipped 40 tons how many weeks ago? 490 00:34:14,159 --> 00:34:17,639 They're struggling. People don't like to talk about 491 00:34:17,639 --> 00:34:22,639 that, but it's hard bringing these projects on. 492 00:34:23,480 --> 00:34:34,320 And Aramet wasn't really sure of how to run their DLE at scale, I 493 00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:36,000 think. And they're they're learning, 494 00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:41,960 not a job. People talk love to talk about 495 00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:45,880 Zigen and three QS. How much have they produced? 496 00:34:48,560 --> 00:34:52,320 I I think it's, it's, there's going to continue to be a 497 00:34:52,320 --> 00:34:56,320 struggle in 2526 from some of the projects out there. 498 00:34:56,320 --> 00:34:59,240 And then you got the smaller projects that can't get 499 00:34:59,240 --> 00:35:02,640 financed. I mean, if you go back to the 500 00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:07,720 Art of War bit, that's another one of the benefits of 501 00:35:07,720 --> 00:35:14,640 misinformation and misdirection. As asset prices are go lower, 502 00:35:14,880 --> 00:35:17,840 the Chinese can pick them up cheaper to the extent that 503 00:35:17,840 --> 00:35:20,320 they're allowed to do that. If it doesn't get you know, you, 504 00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:25,360 you take the geopolitics, which are are also a factor. 505 00:35:25,920 --> 00:35:29,160 But ultimately CATL is going to pay the price for for this 506 00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:34,200 because they're, you know, they can't as the market goes from 507 00:35:34,280 --> 00:35:38,640 850,000 when they started this whole thing with a pedalite to 2 508 00:35:38,640 --> 00:35:43,400 million. Their ability to use a couple of 509 00:35:43,400 --> 00:35:47,680 epidolite mines to control the narrative is, is, is going to be 510 00:35:47,680 --> 00:35:50,400 tougher. Although, as I said earlier, we 511 00:35:50,400 --> 00:35:56,000 they've also identified what projects are economic at what 512 00:35:56,000 --> 00:35:59,320 prices. And it's really instructive to 513 00:35:59,320 --> 00:36:03,800 see what capacity came off when price got to 40, what project 514 00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:07,400 came off when price got to 30. You're going to see the the 515 00:36:07,400 --> 00:36:11,360 reverse when if, if price goes up and I price never should have 516 00:36:11,360 --> 00:36:18,080 gotten to 40,000 in my opinion, but I price can't stay where it 517 00:36:18,080 --> 00:36:20,120 is. Look at the look at the 518 00:36:20,120 --> 00:36:24,560 financials of all the lithium companies and how many 519 00:36:24,560 --> 00:36:27,240 adjustments can you make to EBITDA to try to make the story 520 00:36:27,240 --> 00:36:32,040 look good. Depends how creative you are. 521 00:36:32,160 --> 00:36:34,160 Yeah, I know a few creative lithium companies. 522 00:36:38,200 --> 00:36:41,280 Wouldn't be the, the only sector that chucks in a few adjustments 523 00:36:41,280 --> 00:36:43,480 to, to EBITDA? What what did you make of the, 524 00:36:43,960 --> 00:36:47,760 the SQM comments? I think about a month ago now 525 00:36:47,760 --> 00:36:52,680 they, they sort of forecast 25 to be flattish and that's not 526 00:36:52,680 --> 00:36:55,160 what some people wanted to hear. And then they sort of spoke to a 527 00:36:55,160 --> 00:36:59,720 bit of a, a pick up. How do you kind of wait what, 528 00:36:59,720 --> 00:37:01,760 what those guys kind of say? What's your view on them? 529 00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:10,200 I don't think price is going to break out in 2025 either. 530 00:37:11,200 --> 00:37:13,000 But if you, you look at the history of SQL and they've 531 00:37:13,000 --> 00:37:16,280 always been very conservative about how they talked about 532 00:37:16,280 --> 00:37:20,600 price and I think that that continues. 533 00:37:21,600 --> 00:37:30,640 So I, I just, I always take the price forecast rhetoric with a, 534 00:37:30,800 --> 00:37:33,680 with a grain of salt, but I don't, I don't disagree with 535 00:37:33,680 --> 00:37:39,920 them either in this, this time, I think there's enough lithium 536 00:37:39,920 --> 00:37:45,200 values rolling around in China that price doesn't break out. 537 00:37:45,760 --> 00:37:47,680 I think it'll be higher at the end of the year than it was at 538 00:37:47,680 --> 00:37:49,960 the beginning of the year. But I don't think it, I think 539 00:37:49,960 --> 00:37:53,040 that's a small number and I think you get your spike. 540 00:37:53,880 --> 00:37:56,920 And I've said this publicly several times so far this year. 541 00:37:56,920 --> 00:38:02,320 I think Q 4/20/26, you'll start to see a little bit of a run. 542 00:38:04,560 --> 00:38:07,680 Look at the GW hours that are being made. 543 00:38:08,560 --> 00:38:14,880 Look at the Western rhetoric. Rhetoric is all about EVs 544 00:38:14,880 --> 00:38:17,400 haven't grown as much as some people expected in the United 545 00:38:17,400 --> 00:38:20,840 States. the United States isn't that big of a deal right now in 546 00:38:20,840 --> 00:38:25,360 the EV world. And China continues to go from 547 00:38:25,360 --> 00:38:30,200 strength to strength and their exports are are growing and and 548 00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:34,120 Bess is exceeding everybody's expectations. 549 00:38:34,400 --> 00:38:39,040 So it's, it's, it's all about the GW hours or terawatt hours 550 00:38:39,040 --> 00:38:44,480 now. So, so in that kind of subdued 551 00:38:44,560 --> 00:38:47,720 environment, obviously you, you kind of mentioned there that the 552 00:38:47,720 --> 00:38:51,160 potential for Chinese given geopolitics to, to scoop up. 553 00:38:51,160 --> 00:38:54,720 But we have seen a couple other deals which I'm keen to, to get 554 00:38:54,720 --> 00:38:58,280 your take on Pillbro or PLSA company. 555 00:38:58,320 --> 00:39:02,000 We know you're quite supportive of went to went to Latin 556 00:39:02,000 --> 00:39:06,960 America, they went to Brazil and and scooped up Latin resources. 557 00:39:06,960 --> 00:39:09,920 What, what was your kind of perspective on, on that deal? 558 00:39:09,920 --> 00:39:10,720 Did you? Just go. 559 00:39:10,760 --> 00:39:13,640 I thought it was a good I'll be there in 2 weeks. 560 00:39:13,640 --> 00:39:14,360 Two weeks. Gotcha. 561 00:39:14,560 --> 00:39:16,680 Yeah. Yeah, I'll be actually I'll be 562 00:39:16,680 --> 00:39:18,720 flying back two weeks gotcha tonight. 563 00:39:20,440 --> 00:39:27,840 So I'm, I like the Latin story. Sigma's done a, a surprisingly 564 00:39:27,840 --> 00:39:31,200 good job. And I always say surprisingly 565 00:39:31,200 --> 00:39:34,280 because people had low expectations on Brazil. 566 00:39:34,840 --> 00:39:40,520 I mean, if you look at the lithium, the lithium world tends 567 00:39:40,520 --> 00:39:44,920 to adopt change slowly, shall we say. 568 00:39:45,440 --> 00:39:49,760 And Brazil's really performed better. 569 00:39:49,760 --> 00:39:53,360 And you know, there's, there's multiple projects down there and 570 00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:56,280 I literally haven't been in Brazil since 1996. 571 00:39:56,840 --> 00:40:00,080 So I go to South America a couple times a year. 572 00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:04,440 But the last time I was in Brazil was to try to get the 573 00:40:04,560 --> 00:40:08,600 nuclear ban lifted. They had, and we used to have to 574 00:40:08,600 --> 00:40:10,920 get a license every time we sold into Brazil. 575 00:40:11,680 --> 00:40:15,080 And it was a cumbersome process. So I'm happy to be going back to 576 00:40:15,080 --> 00:40:17,200 Brazil. I think Dale made a really good 577 00:40:17,200 --> 00:40:19,720 decision. I Dale's a very methodical guy. 578 00:40:20,280 --> 00:40:24,880 And I think some messages were also being sent there that hey, 579 00:40:25,080 --> 00:40:30,000 this is it isn't just WA. Yeah, well, that message was 580 00:40:30,000 --> 00:40:32,720 clearly sent when they removed their name from being Hilbert of 581 00:40:32,720 --> 00:40:34,640 PLS. But like I'm later. 582 00:40:35,000 --> 00:40:36,600 But it is. It's also a statement about the, 583 00:40:36,720 --> 00:40:39,000 you know, the. Isn't it PLS global? 584 00:40:39,080 --> 00:40:42,680 It I can't remember, you're probably right, but yeah, the 585 00:40:42,840 --> 00:40:44,000 just. Emphasizes the point. 586 00:40:44,840 --> 00:40:47,040 It's also a statement about you know their, their, you know 587 00:40:47,280 --> 00:40:50,400 probable views on, on you know, capital intensity and, and and 588 00:40:50,400 --> 00:40:52,400 OpEx if the the relative jurisdictions too. 589 00:40:54,840 --> 00:40:58,520 Yes, I think the the other Brazil's interesting too because 590 00:40:58,520 --> 00:41:02,720 they're likely to have the full blown supply chain. 591 00:41:03,320 --> 00:41:10,360 You know, BYD is very active down there and we'll we'll see 592 00:41:10,360 --> 00:41:14,120 what happens where the whether they have a full blown supply 593 00:41:14,120 --> 00:41:16,680 chain before America does it could happen. 594 00:41:20,480 --> 00:41:23,680 That would be, that'd be quite something to to behold there. 595 00:41:23,720 --> 00:41:28,240 There was one more bit of bit of insight I wanted to get from you 596 00:41:28,240 --> 00:41:29,840 that was kind of company specific. 597 00:41:29,840 --> 00:41:35,400 And it's, it's in the, the sort of West Farmers SQM joint 598 00:41:35,400 --> 00:41:38,120 venture that we see here because we really struggled to get good 599 00:41:38,120 --> 00:41:40,800 info. But we saw on the M&A front 600 00:41:40,800 --> 00:41:46,040 rumors that Indian groups were looking to to buy a sort of 20% 601 00:41:46,040 --> 00:41:51,440 stake of SQMS proportion. What, what's your sort of latest 602 00:41:51,440 --> 00:41:54,760 info that you've got on on Mount Holland and and the refinery 603 00:41:54,760 --> 00:41:57,920 that they're they're doing and any potential insight on on the 604 00:41:57,920 --> 00:42:03,960 deal? I can't really speak to exactly 605 00:42:03,960 --> 00:42:06,560 what's going on in Mount Holland, but I can tell you from 606 00:42:07,160 --> 00:42:10,680 talking to some of the larger industrial companies in India 607 00:42:11,080 --> 00:42:14,160 that they have a real interest in. 608 00:42:14,680 --> 00:42:18,000 When a company comes and says we're, we're going to spend in 609 00:42:18,000 --> 00:42:24,440 the range of five to $15 billion to try to go across the energy 610 00:42:24,440 --> 00:42:28,480 storage system supply chain. And we to do that to have 611 00:42:28,480 --> 00:42:32,680 confidence, we want to be vertically integrated. 612 00:42:34,120 --> 00:42:36,360 And it's a credible, it's a credible entity. 613 00:42:36,360 --> 00:42:38,200 And I've talked to multiple entities in India. 614 00:42:40,000 --> 00:42:43,640 I can't speak to their specific interest in SQM because I 615 00:42:43,640 --> 00:42:45,200 actually told me how to go to Argentina. 616 00:42:45,200 --> 00:42:51,560 But what we'll see I, I think it's completely plausible. 617 00:42:51,560 --> 00:42:57,760 And I think SQM got outside of their knitting by going to WA. 618 00:42:58,520 --> 00:43:01,600 And I think it's been a tough slog. 619 00:43:02,160 --> 00:43:11,680 And maybe when I'm in WA in the not too distant future I will I 620 00:43:11,680 --> 00:43:18,920 will get better information, but that's just been a a tough slog 621 00:43:18,920 --> 00:43:22,880 for both W farmers and SQM. Totally, totally. 622 00:43:22,880 --> 00:43:25,800 I mean it was, it was such an interesting move by SQM to come 623 00:43:25,800 --> 00:43:28,960 to to WA in Hard Rock. And in some ways it's kind of 624 00:43:28,960 --> 00:43:32,120 forced upon them by the dynamics of operating in Chile. 625 00:43:32,120 --> 00:43:33,400 They could have gone to Argentina. 626 00:43:33,400 --> 00:43:35,000 They could have. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. 627 00:43:35,200 --> 00:43:36,960 That's a. And done what they know how to 628 00:43:36,960 --> 00:43:38,040 do. Valid point. 629 00:43:38,720 --> 00:43:43,720 For sure, yeah. Although they had, they had one 630 00:43:43,720 --> 00:43:46,160 excursion into Argentina that didn't work out too well and 631 00:43:46,160 --> 00:43:51,280 Gangfen bought them out, but they I think they would have had 632 00:43:51,720 --> 00:43:56,600 much greater success figure it out Argentina brine versus out 633 00:43:56,600 --> 00:44:00,080 of comma brine's rather than going to Hard Rock. 634 00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:04,200 And I think Mr. Ramos drank a little bit of the Chris Ellis 635 00:44:04,200 --> 00:44:08,720 and Kool-aid, and they'll pay the price for it. 636 00:44:12,080 --> 00:44:13,400 It's a big price to pay that one. 637 00:44:16,080 --> 00:44:17,960 I didn't say this was a happy story. 638 00:44:21,760 --> 00:44:23,920 There's not too many happy stories in the Lithium land at 639 00:44:23,920 --> 00:44:25,440 the moment. You think? 640 00:44:25,800 --> 00:44:28,840 Just yeah, I know you guys like the pan lithium. 641 00:44:28,840 --> 00:44:37,240 It's it's been it's been tough, but what other and I will, I 642 00:44:37,240 --> 00:44:42,920 will pander to you Jonas and say commodity has grown 10X in a 643 00:44:42,920 --> 00:44:44,440 decade. I I. 644 00:44:44,760 --> 00:44:48,320 I take the other side, Judd, I, I think you know from, from our 645 00:44:48,360 --> 00:44:53,320 perspective, we're more excited than we have been in, in a long 646 00:44:53,320 --> 00:44:57,120 time on, on lithium because it's trading so hard in the cost 647 00:44:57,120 --> 00:44:58,760 curve. I think there's a the the 648 00:44:58,760 --> 00:45:02,720 realization though that our assets in our backyard here in 649 00:45:02,720 --> 00:45:07,240 in WA perhaps don't sit on the cost curve where we previously 650 00:45:07,240 --> 00:45:09,560 might have thought they see it are. 651 00:45:11,160 --> 00:45:11,960 Yeah, is it? You're right. 652 00:45:12,840 --> 00:45:15,200 It's a bit of pill to kind of swallow for a lot of folks down 653 00:45:15,200 --> 00:45:17,800 here, but you know, it throws up sort of opportunities. 654 00:45:17,800 --> 00:45:20,880 And I guess another point I was curious to get your take on is 655 00:45:20,880 --> 00:45:23,600 like green bushes. It's it's tied up in a, in a 656 00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:26,080 gnarly kind of ownership structure. 657 00:45:26,080 --> 00:45:30,440 But there comes a point in time where if you're looking at WA 658 00:45:30,520 --> 00:45:35,520 assets, the ones in our backyard here that Greenbushes is, is 659 00:45:35,520 --> 00:45:37,040 certainly one of the better ones there. 660 00:45:37,040 --> 00:45:40,320 So how do you kind of view that and how do you view picking out 661 00:45:41,040 --> 00:45:46,000 assets that sit low in the cost curve in a, in a, a commodity or 662 00:45:46,000 --> 00:45:49,840 a specialty chemical as you as you kind of say when it's really 663 00:45:49,840 --> 00:45:52,600 beaten up? Well, I'm glad we're trying to 664 00:45:52,600 --> 00:45:54,280 speak each other's languages here. 665 00:45:56,440 --> 00:46:01,120 Well, Greenbushes is the best operating Hard Rock asset in the 666 00:46:01,120 --> 00:46:04,840 world. I mean, it's, it's not what it 667 00:46:04,840 --> 00:46:12,640 once was, but it's still head and shoulders above the other 668 00:46:12,640 --> 00:46:16,400 from a cost perspective. The problem with Greenbushes 669 00:46:16,400 --> 00:46:21,360 from my perspective is the convoluted ownership and it 670 00:46:21,360 --> 00:46:24,120 would be better placed in one company's hands. 671 00:46:24,120 --> 00:46:28,840 That's not the case. I I got to meet Ivan from IGO in 672 00:46:28,840 --> 00:46:32,360 Florida in February. Likable guy. 673 00:46:32,640 --> 00:46:38,400 I am, you know, hoping that things turn around for them and 674 00:46:39,240 --> 00:46:45,120 but it's it it first of all, have an apple marl who hasn't 675 00:46:45,240 --> 00:46:48,200 is, is zig when they should have zagged and zagged when they 676 00:46:48,200 --> 00:46:51,720 should have zigged for the last seven or eight years. 677 00:46:52,000 --> 00:46:56,360 That's tough. Tansy's got their own set of 678 00:46:56,360 --> 00:47:03,280 problems and layering on 2 failed hydroxide projects to the 679 00:47:03,280 --> 00:47:10,320 world's greatest Hard Rock acid just makes it all the more sad 680 00:47:10,320 --> 00:47:19,040 story for the lithium industry. What, what does the, the, the 681 00:47:19,040 --> 00:47:23,040 future sort of hold for, for Albemarle You've, you've, you 682 00:47:23,040 --> 00:47:25,680 know, been been vocal on, on your thoughts on, on a range of 683 00:47:26,520 --> 00:47:28,880 dynamics at play within, within the company. 684 00:47:28,880 --> 00:47:33,920 But in a, in a downturn in a company with, with debt, the, 685 00:47:34,360 --> 00:47:37,080 the challenges can be pretty, pretty sort of pressing. 686 00:47:37,080 --> 00:47:40,240 How do you foresee the the next few years playing out if we sort 687 00:47:40,240 --> 00:47:45,600 of stay where we are in a sort of perhaps plus 20 + 30% bound 688 00:47:45,600 --> 00:47:50,040 on on lithium prices? Yeah, I think if you got plus 689 00:47:50,040 --> 00:47:54,360 30%, the world would be a lot better place for Albemarle. 690 00:47:54,360 --> 00:48:02,840 But Albemarle's just made so many missteps and they just 691 00:48:02,840 --> 00:48:08,120 doing a podcast with them was, which I was surprised they 692 00:48:08,120 --> 00:48:12,000 actually did, but it was easier to arrange. 693 00:48:12,520 --> 00:48:18,920 I've never had more meetings to arrange a podcast than they did 694 00:48:18,920 --> 00:48:23,280 with Apple Marl. Apple Marlles of is, has all the 695 00:48:23,280 --> 00:48:29,760 bureaucracy of a huge oil company and it's, it's a, it's a 696 00:48:29,760 --> 00:48:33,440 relatively small company. They hired too many people. 697 00:48:34,120 --> 00:48:40,800 They had VPS like a, a bank and and I, you know, I, I, I 698 00:48:40,800 --> 00:48:44,120 continue to harp on it because I continue to get calls from 699 00:48:44,120 --> 00:48:46,360 people that leave the organization that want to bare 700 00:48:46,360 --> 00:48:51,040 their souls. And I like to listen to it. 701 00:48:54,000 --> 00:48:58,080 I don't think there's a I think they need to clean out the 702 00:48:58,080 --> 00:49:00,720 leadership and I think they need a new board and I don't think 703 00:49:00,720 --> 00:49:03,840 that's about to happen. So I it just you can't have a 704 00:49:03,840 --> 00:49:06,240 palsy Walsy board. You can't pay a guy that 705 00:49:06,240 --> 00:49:09,720 performed like Ken has the kind of money they've been paying 706 00:49:09,720 --> 00:49:11,840 him. It's just it's a travesty as far 707 00:49:11,840 --> 00:49:18,000 as I'm concerned, but I don't really have feelings about it. 708 00:49:20,600 --> 00:49:24,440 Yeah, it's it's hot, hot pressed to to argue with a lot of those, 709 00:49:24,560 --> 00:49:27,320 those perspectives. No, they have the 2. 710 00:49:27,320 --> 00:49:29,560 Two of the best assets out there. 711 00:49:30,520 --> 00:49:37,840 How can they be where they are? Lack of good strategy, lack of 712 00:49:38,640 --> 00:49:42,160 good tactics and lack of good leadership. 713 00:49:43,440 --> 00:49:46,560 Culminates in pretty, pretty questionable capital allocation. 714 00:49:46,560 --> 00:49:49,520 I mean, how many of there, any of their growth projects or 715 00:49:49,520 --> 00:49:53,720 everything have just been like 0 revenue generating decisions? 716 00:49:55,880 --> 00:49:59,840 I felt like I was reading Mad magazine, which I'm sure you 717 00:49:59,840 --> 00:50:03,080 guys don't know what that is, but it it was a kind of a. 718 00:50:03,320 --> 00:50:05,960 Yeah, yeah. Mad Magazine kind of sets it 719 00:50:05,960 --> 00:50:12,360 off. I when they were going to when 720 00:50:12,360 --> 00:50:14,320 they made the offer for Lion Town, I thought, this is 721 00:50:14,320 --> 00:50:17,000 straight out of Mad Magazine. I I don't get it. 722 00:50:17,520 --> 00:50:19,800 And that that's no pejorative on Lion town. 723 00:50:19,800 --> 00:50:25,760 I love the guys at Lion Town. You know, it's it's tough times 724 00:50:25,960 --> 00:50:33,840 with the way the market is, but I'm just saying that Gina, Gina 725 00:50:33,840 --> 00:50:37,280 benevolently saved Apple Marl. That's that's probably the 726 00:50:37,280 --> 00:50:42,160 biggest irony of this decade in lithium. 727 00:50:46,000 --> 00:50:47,480 Who would have thought it would be like that? 728 00:50:47,480 --> 00:50:51,600 Well, yeah, I mean, it's, it's been wicked to for us to ask you 729 00:50:51,600 --> 00:50:54,800 the questions that that we have about the space at the moment, 730 00:50:55,160 --> 00:50:57,520 Joe. Go ahead, punish me. 731 00:50:57,920 --> 00:51:00,280 It's fine. I I mean. 732 00:51:01,000 --> 00:51:04,280 I I echo what Joe says like, you know, we're, we're, we're, we're 733 00:51:04,280 --> 00:51:06,480 of the yoke of certainly being more interested in commodities 734 00:51:06,480 --> 00:51:10,280 that have that have beaten up then then they are when they're 735 00:51:10,280 --> 00:51:13,440 when they're flying. Kind of, you know, obviously the 736 00:51:13,600 --> 00:51:17,160 the interest is far, far less from from an audience 737 00:51:17,160 --> 00:51:18,920 perspective when commodities are beaten up than when they're 738 00:51:18,920 --> 00:51:21,040 flying. But for us individuals who who 739 00:51:21,040 --> 00:51:22,800 look counter cyclically, then yeah. 740 00:51:24,040 --> 00:51:28,520 I am seeing in in what I do, I I'm seeing there's, there's a 741 00:51:28,520 --> 00:51:32,480 lot more interest now. And I would just you asked a 742 00:51:32,480 --> 00:51:35,120 question about India potentially investing. 743 00:51:35,200 --> 00:51:40,440 I think that's happening. I think what Exxon and Ecuador 744 00:51:40,440 --> 00:51:42,960 are doing, they're not worried about the vagaries of lithium 745 00:51:42,960 --> 00:51:44,200 price the next three or four years. 746 00:51:44,200 --> 00:51:49,120 It doesn't matter to them. They they can do what they want 747 00:51:49,120 --> 00:51:51,120 to do. And and that's the that's the 748 00:51:51,120 --> 00:51:53,320 positive side of the lithium story. 749 00:51:54,520 --> 00:52:01,040 But to be a junior lithium player right now is kind of like 750 00:52:02,000 --> 00:52:08,000 perpetual purgatory. The, the, the saving grace is 751 00:52:08,000 --> 00:52:12,680 that the, the juniors flock with a sort of rearview type mirror, 752 00:52:12,880 --> 00:52:15,640 not a not a forward-looking type outlook. 753 00:52:15,640 --> 00:52:20,080 So yeah, put whatever sort of weight into that as you will. 754 00:52:20,400 --> 00:52:23,880 I'd, I'd be curious to, to hear Joe, one thing that we notice, 755 00:52:24,240 --> 00:52:27,840 given we're, we're both in the podcast to, you know, sort of 756 00:52:27,840 --> 00:52:31,520 game to an extent. We, we definitely noticed the, 757 00:52:31,520 --> 00:52:33,840 the interest in, in lithium since we sort of started two 758 00:52:33,840 --> 00:52:36,720 years ago. Ebb, ebb and flow. 759 00:52:36,760 --> 00:52:40,640 You know, it's sort of was very high 2023 and it's sort of 760 00:52:41,160 --> 00:52:43,320 trails off. Is, is, is that a kind of 761 00:52:43,560 --> 00:52:46,880 sentiment gauge the, the viewership that you get in your, 762 00:52:46,960 --> 00:52:48,880 your podcast? Do you, do you notice that sort 763 00:52:48,880 --> 00:52:52,680 of change substantially over, you know, because you've done it 764 00:52:52,680 --> 00:52:56,120 a lot longer than we have? Well, I I spare my audience the 765 00:52:56,920 --> 00:52:58,960 need to view me. It's just my voice. 766 00:53:00,960 --> 00:53:04,360 But no, I had to, it's, it's really funny. 767 00:53:04,600 --> 00:53:07,080 I mean, there's only one country on earth where I don't have a 768 00:53:07,080 --> 00:53:11,880 download and that's Bhutan and that's Spotify stats, the 196 769 00:53:11,880 --> 00:53:18,160 countries. I can predict the first 48 hours 770 00:53:18,160 --> 00:53:20,920 the podcast is up. Doesn't matter who I have on, 771 00:53:21,560 --> 00:53:26,120 I'm going to hit this number this hour and and all the way 772 00:53:26,120 --> 00:53:34,040 through. I really haven't noticed much of 773 00:53:34,040 --> 00:53:39,920 a difference in listenership. Interesting. 774 00:53:40,840 --> 00:53:45,280 Yeah, it is. I, I have AI, have a loyal 775 00:53:45,280 --> 00:53:48,360 following that they just like to punish themselves every couple 776 00:53:48,360 --> 00:53:49,320 of weeks. I don't know. 777 00:53:51,840 --> 00:53:54,840 There was there was a couple other assets and and companies I 778 00:53:54,840 --> 00:53:56,520 wanted to get you you quick takes on. 779 00:53:56,520 --> 00:54:01,600 So we spoke earlier in the week or maybe last week about Galan, 780 00:54:01,960 --> 00:54:07,000 they suddenly announced that they they bounced back an offer 781 00:54:07,000 --> 00:54:10,120 and then latest rumors they're coming out for a, a capital 782 00:54:10,120 --> 00:54:12,000 raise. What's your what's your take on 783 00:54:12,520 --> 00:54:15,280 on the asset and on the the kind of strategy? 784 00:54:18,200 --> 00:54:24,000 They have been hamstrung by the market conditions and I know 785 00:54:24,000 --> 00:54:27,920 they have a lot of disgruntled shareholders. 786 00:54:28,600 --> 00:54:36,320 I understand a lot of people bought it at the top and, you 787 00:54:36,320 --> 00:54:38,400 know, are unhappy. But if you look at what they're 788 00:54:38,400 --> 00:54:41,920 trying to do, it's, it's a tough, it's a tough market. 789 00:54:44,200 --> 00:54:47,600 I, I don't, I have a little money in Golan. 790 00:54:47,680 --> 00:54:53,080 I, I, I'm a little underwater, not much because I, you know, 791 00:54:53,160 --> 00:55:00,560 didn't, I bought it very late, But I like, I like JP and I'm 792 00:55:00,600 --> 00:55:04,440 very close to Daniel Jimenez. I think it's a good asset. 793 00:55:05,080 --> 00:55:08,640 And if I was going to sell it, I certainly wouldn't take the 794 00:55:08,640 --> 00:55:15,920 offer they got. But yeah, moving it forward is 795 00:55:16,360 --> 00:55:21,440 still a challenge. Yeah, yeah, for sure. 796 00:55:22,080 --> 00:55:26,000 What one of the other assets was Gulamina and you you spoke in a 797 00:55:26,040 --> 00:55:31,000 in a recent podcast about this sort of not not being the kind 798 00:55:31,000 --> 00:55:35,000 of focus in a sense that the game Fang is prioritizing 799 00:55:35,240 --> 00:55:37,640 Brian's. But this is obviously a 800 00:55:37,640 --> 00:55:44,280 substantial project and we we hear about it a lot less since 801 00:55:44,280 --> 00:55:48,680 the, you know, the, the the. Leo, this is not Leo Lithium 802 00:55:49,200 --> 00:55:50,400 anymore. Yeah. 803 00:55:50,960 --> 00:55:56,840 In a nutshell. Yeah, I think Gang Fen, as well 804 00:55:56,840 --> 00:56:00,160 as they've done, has a lot of challenges because they have 805 00:56:00,960 --> 00:56:08,120 multiple good brine projects. But Gang Fen likes to talk about 806 00:56:08,120 --> 00:56:11,200 Gang Fen speed and Gang Fen speed is certainly true inside 807 00:56:11,200 --> 00:56:15,200 China. Gang Fen speed slows down 808 00:56:15,200 --> 00:56:20,280 markedly outside of China and I think the challenge they have 809 00:56:20,280 --> 00:56:29,440 now is that they have such a big portfolio that yeah, yeah, I 810 00:56:29,440 --> 00:56:36,000 think they, you know Golomina, I would think based on the 811 00:56:36,000 --> 00:56:43,560 capacities they have and the need for rock that that Golomina 812 00:56:44,560 --> 00:56:49,760 gets gets the attention. But I would be surprised if they 813 00:56:49,760 --> 00:56:55,360 did additional significant Hard Rock before they get some of the 814 00:56:55,360 --> 00:56:58,960 bright assets online. And I mean, just like at the 815 00:56:59,520 --> 00:57:04,600 their last quarter announcement, I mean, it's, it's tough times 816 00:57:04,600 --> 00:57:10,920 even for a gang fan. Fascinating stuff, Joe, 817 00:57:10,920 --> 00:57:13,600 Appreciate you. You making the time and letting 818 00:57:13,600 --> 00:57:17,120 us pick your brain on on every asset under the sun. 819 00:57:17,120 --> 00:57:20,920 And yeah, letting us sort of ponder what the West can do 820 00:57:20,920 --> 00:57:24,560 about catching up with with the the sort of bullet train that 821 00:57:24,560 --> 00:57:28,960 China is. Well, when the bullet train 822 00:57:28,960 --> 00:57:34,600 leaves the station 10 years before the next bullet train, it 823 00:57:34,600 --> 00:57:40,360 is going to be hard to catch up. But I, I do have a belief that 824 00:57:40,480 --> 00:57:44,320 the US will have a hat or North America will have a supply 825 00:57:44,320 --> 00:57:49,120 chain. But it's, it's not going to be 826 00:57:49,120 --> 00:57:52,600 the scale of China. It's not, it's just, it's, it's 827 00:57:52,600 --> 00:57:57,120 going to be different. They picked, they picked the 828 00:57:57,120 --> 00:58:04,560 energy transition to focus on. And we continue to dither about 829 00:58:05,920 --> 00:58:10,520 battery packs and, you know, subsidies. 830 00:58:10,520 --> 00:58:15,720 And we are reaping what we sowed. 831 00:58:18,960 --> 00:58:21,160 We will keep paying attention, that's for sure. 832 00:58:21,240 --> 00:58:23,520 You when we reached out and asked for interview, Joe, you 833 00:58:23,520 --> 00:58:26,320 said only if you can ask us a couple of questions at the end. 834 00:58:26,320 --> 00:58:32,240 So you've got the floor. Gentlemen, you've been doing 835 00:58:32,240 --> 00:58:36,480 this now for two years. Two years it will take, yeah. 836 00:58:38,960 --> 00:58:44,320 Each of you, what have you learned about yourself in the 837 00:58:44,320 --> 00:58:51,560 process talking to people every day and you'll answer that and 838 00:58:51,560 --> 00:58:59,320 then I'll ask you a follow up. It is rapid fire, boys. 839 00:58:59,320 --> 00:59:01,880 It's. A good thing we can edit. 840 00:59:06,640 --> 00:59:09,480 I In the process of talking to people every day, what have I 841 00:59:09,480 --> 00:59:15,280 learned about myself? I reckon I've learned that I can 842 00:59:15,280 --> 00:59:17,240 change my mind more than I thought. 843 00:59:17,320 --> 00:59:20,600 I actually thought I was quite like stubborn and would be very 844 00:59:21,360 --> 00:59:24,200 stuck in an opinion. But I think when you do speak to 845 00:59:24,200 --> 00:59:25,840 lots of different, different people, pick different 846 00:59:25,840 --> 00:59:28,560 expertise. I yeah, I do have a capability 847 00:59:28,560 --> 00:59:31,480 to, to change my opinion, especially when, you know, I 848 00:59:31,520 --> 00:59:36,160 think the, the new person I met, the new perspective is, is is 849 00:59:36,200 --> 00:59:37,600 like, you know, they come from a place of logic. 850 00:59:40,520 --> 00:59:42,960 Yeah, it's a good, good question, Joe. 851 00:59:43,320 --> 00:59:46,480 The, the way I'd sort of answer it is I think about the, I think 852 00:59:46,480 --> 00:59:48,880 it's a Dunning Kruger effect. And I think about like where, 853 00:59:49,240 --> 00:59:52,800 where you are on, on the, the range of sort of knowing 854 00:59:52,800 --> 00:59:55,360 something about a, a particular kind of subject. 855 00:59:55,360 --> 00:59:59,360 And kind of bit bizarrely, I feel like we, we learn more 856 00:59:59,360 --> 01:00:03,440 every every day about mining. And you know the, the gist of it 857 01:00:03,440 --> 01:00:05,760 is that you, you think you know a whole lot more when you're at 858 01:00:05,760 --> 01:00:07,320 the beginning of the journey and. 859 01:00:07,920 --> 01:00:10,160 You know, every day for the last two years, we, we learn more, 860 01:00:10,160 --> 01:00:12,320 but I feel like I know less and less and less. 861 01:00:12,640 --> 01:00:15,160 And there's so many smart people out there that have such sort of 862 01:00:15,560 --> 01:00:19,560 nuanced and well thought out views on, on topics that we sort 863 01:00:19,560 --> 01:00:21,880 of dive into for a for a couple of days. 864 01:00:21,880 --> 01:00:25,200 And yeah. And sort of got to, got to stay 865 01:00:25,200 --> 01:00:26,800 true to it and think you're, you're learning more. 866 01:00:26,800 --> 01:00:31,080 But it's, it's amazing how much is out there and, and the 867 01:00:31,080 --> 01:00:34,000 knowledge that people sort of build up like yourself doing 868 01:00:34,000 --> 01:00:38,120 something for 20-30 years. And yeah, to to finish that 869 01:00:38,120 --> 01:00:40,360 piece off, we're we're pretty grateful that the people do 870 01:00:40,360 --> 01:00:41,760 share their their knowledge with us. 871 01:00:43,240 --> 01:00:46,520 What have you learned about asking questions? 872 01:00:49,240 --> 01:00:53,360 Say less. Bingo. 873 01:00:56,720 --> 01:01:00,440 I'm working on that one still. But yeah, the, I think it's like 874 01:01:00,440 --> 01:01:03,040 anything, interviewing people is, is a skill and you don't get 875 01:01:03,240 --> 01:01:06,480 good at it overnight, right. So you need to just work on it 876 01:01:06,480 --> 01:01:10,720 and work on it and work on it and, and yeah, hopefully in 1020 877 01:01:10,720 --> 01:01:17,320 years maybe you'll be OK at it. Yeah, no, I actually think I 878 01:01:17,320 --> 01:01:22,040 don't listen to you guys everyday, but I, I do think you 879 01:01:22,040 --> 01:01:26,440 ask, generally speaking, you ask good questions and that that is 880 01:01:26,440 --> 01:01:30,840 a skill. And I think, I mean it, I think 881 01:01:31,120 --> 01:01:35,120 you come to it. And but I, I do think you hit 882 01:01:35,120 --> 01:01:40,280 the nail on the head though. It's talking less than listening 883 01:01:40,280 --> 01:01:42,720 more. Is is probably the answer in 884 01:01:42,720 --> 01:01:45,840 that that was really what I had to learn when I started doing 885 01:01:45,840 --> 01:01:47,360 this. It's hard when you like to talk, 886 01:01:47,360 --> 01:01:58,000 isn't? It, it isn't anymore, but yeah, 887 01:01:58,000 --> 01:02:02,920 it, it, it probably it, it probably that's the the big 888 01:02:02,920 --> 01:02:08,440 transition. And as a business, what have you 889 01:02:08,440 --> 01:02:21,340 found is the biggest challenge? I am loving the silence. 890 01:02:26,100 --> 01:02:32,520 The, the biggest, the biggest challenge is sort of staying, 891 01:02:32,520 --> 01:02:37,240 staying true to the, the kind of mission you, you set out for 892 01:02:37,240 --> 01:02:39,960 when, when money gets involved, right? 893 01:02:40,200 --> 01:02:43,560 You, you start out and we and we start out wanting to be 894 01:02:43,560 --> 01:02:47,400 independent and not take money from, from mining companies. 895 01:02:47,400 --> 01:02:52,760 And like, it's not that mining companies have come and offered 896 01:02:52,760 --> 01:02:57,760 us big cash, you know, paychecks or anything like that, but you 897 01:02:57,760 --> 01:03:00,880 know, it's all the stuff on the edges, you know, and once you 898 01:03:00,880 --> 01:03:03,640 start kind of doing this and doing that, you get, you get 899 01:03:03,640 --> 01:03:06,080 distracted or maybe you get, you get kind of sloppy on the 900 01:03:06,080 --> 01:03:09,040 fringes. And I think just staying true is 901 01:03:09,040 --> 01:03:11,520 the the the most important thing. 902 01:03:12,160 --> 01:03:15,680 Yeah, I and I, I kind of build off that. 903 01:03:15,680 --> 01:03:19,560 It's just it's focus. I'd say it's like, yeah, one, 904 01:03:19,600 --> 01:03:21,960 one thing someone else in media once said to us was it's much 905 01:03:21,960 --> 01:03:24,160 more important what you say no to than what you say yes to. 906 01:03:24,840 --> 01:03:29,760 And, you know, remembering to say no very, very often is, 907 01:03:30,440 --> 01:03:31,960 yeah, it's a big challenge. Well. 908 01:03:33,320 --> 01:03:40,120 When I met you guys and I asked you what your day jobs were, 909 01:03:41,880 --> 01:03:43,120 What are you saying? He said. 910 01:03:43,480 --> 01:03:50,520 He said, no, this is what we do. And I thought, well, I I felt 911 01:03:50,520 --> 01:03:53,440 like a shit because I was like, I'm not, I didn't, I didn't mean 912 01:03:53,440 --> 01:03:56,000 it as an insult. I just, Yeah, You hadn't been 913 01:03:56,000 --> 01:03:58,000 doing it very long. I figured you guys must like 914 01:03:58,400 --> 01:04:00,760 have jobs. Yeah, I don't even know if it 915 01:04:00,760 --> 01:04:04,640 was paying the bills completely back then, Joe, but it was. 916 01:04:04,640 --> 01:04:06,120 We're all just a bit he. Was all pro bono. 917 01:04:06,320 --> 01:04:08,240 We're all a bit delinquent and thought we would give it a crack 918 01:04:08,240 --> 01:04:09,440 and if it doesn't work, it doesn't work. 919 01:04:09,440 --> 01:04:12,720 But we're still here two years later, which is a is a relief. 920 01:04:13,760 --> 01:04:18,800 Well, give my regards to Maddie and the next time I'm in town 921 01:04:18,800 --> 01:04:22,000 I'm coming calling for one of those money in mind shirts. 922 01:04:23,600 --> 01:04:26,440 Yeah, we'll, we'll, we'd love to have you in the studio and. 923 01:04:26,840 --> 01:04:30,400 You know what I and this is, I'm going to invite Dwayne Sparks to 924 01:04:30,400 --> 01:04:34,400 be on this podcast with me when I'm in Perth. 925 01:04:35,200 --> 01:04:37,000 Call out Dwayne. Make it happen. 926 01:04:37,120 --> 01:04:39,720 If anyone, yeah, if anyone can make him comment, it's you, Joe. 927 01:04:39,720 --> 01:04:44,200 I, I, yeah. I'd, I'd, we'd, we'd all welcome 928 01:04:44,200 --> 01:04:45,960 that opportunity. So let's hope it happens. 929 01:04:47,800 --> 01:04:51,960 Well, I I think it will. I have never met him either, but 930 01:04:52,600 --> 01:04:56,800 he seems like a swell guy. I think we're going to have to 931 01:04:56,800 --> 01:04:59,760 go to Katani to to meet him because he keeps running away. 932 01:05:01,720 --> 01:05:03,680 Well, I'll go wherever. I mean this. 933 01:05:03,680 --> 01:05:07,280 This is my mission. This is like a a pilgrimage 934 01:05:07,400 --> 01:05:10,960 halfway across the earth. To meet Dwayne. 935 01:05:10,960 --> 01:05:14,200 Seeking Dwayne Sparks. That can be the name of the 936 01:05:14,200 --> 01:05:19,920 episode. All right, guys. 937 01:05:19,920 --> 01:05:22,400 Well, I think you're done with me so. 938 01:05:22,560 --> 01:05:24,640 Thank you so much, Joe. We're never done with you. 939 01:05:24,640 --> 01:05:28,200 The industry will never be done with you because you have been 940 01:05:28,200 --> 01:05:30,360 with it forever. So thank you so much for for for 941 01:05:30,360 --> 01:05:32,920 sharing your insight, your time, your knowledge of the the past, 942 01:05:32,920 --> 01:05:35,320 present and future. We really. 943 01:05:35,320 --> 01:05:37,400 Appreciate it. You'll have a. 944 01:05:38,440 --> 01:05:39,960 You'll have a mention in my book. 945 01:05:42,320 --> 01:05:48,920 Those pesky kids from Perth. Nice alliteration, all right. 946 01:05:50,280 --> 01:05:51,600 Cheers, Joe. See ya. 947 01:05:51,960 --> 01:05:55,400 Thank you very much, Mr. Lithium, for connecting with us 948 01:05:55,400 --> 01:05:57,520 back in Australia. Good work boys. 949 01:05:58,040 --> 01:06:00,920 Loved it, thanks to Joe. It was a yeah, a pleasure to 950 01:06:00,920 --> 01:06:03,480 catch up with him and and just take stock of of everything in 951 01:06:03,480 --> 01:06:05,920 a, in a market that's been pretty tumultuous over over the 952 01:06:05,920 --> 01:06:07,000 last couple. Of years I'll see you went 953 01:06:07,000 --> 01:06:09,680 podcast for podcast on to you guys at the end. 954 01:06:10,160 --> 01:06:11,360 He did. Yeah, he did. 955 01:06:11,440 --> 01:06:12,560 It was. The condition of doing the 956 01:06:12,560 --> 01:06:15,560 interview, Maddie, we'll extend that. 957 01:06:15,560 --> 01:06:17,920 Big thank you, Trev to our awesome partners. 958 01:06:17,920 --> 01:06:20,160 Get your tickets for the GRX conference May. 959 01:06:20,160 --> 01:06:22,960 I'm guard, I've got to book me tickets after this actually. 960 01:06:23,000 --> 01:06:26,280 May 20 to May 22nd in Brizzy. Yeah mate, can't wait. 961 01:06:26,280 --> 01:06:28,960 The Centre of Tech and innovation count codes on the 962 01:06:28,960 --> 01:06:30,840 show notes. I'll check the LinkedIn post up. 963 01:06:31,080 --> 01:06:33,320 Use the code otherwise they'll think we're shit. 964 01:06:34,240 --> 01:06:37,360 Buddy mentioned in the show MMS and grounded. 965 01:06:37,360 --> 01:06:41,520 We're got bloody sandy ground sports CR insurance K drill WA 966 01:06:41,600 --> 01:06:47,560 water wars quattro kca black diamond drilling services the 967 01:06:47,560 --> 01:06:52,400 cross boundary energy udaru. Information contained in this 968 01:06:52,400 --> 01:06:55,160 episode of Money of Mine is of general nature only and does not 969 01:06:55,160 --> 01:06:57,800 take into account the objectives, financial situation 970 01:06:57,840 --> 01:06:59,840 or needs of any particular person. 971 01:07:00,160 --> 01:07:03,200 Before making any investment decision, you should consult 972 01:07:03,200 --> 01:07:06,240 with your financial advisor and consider how appropriate the 973 01:07:06,240 --> 01:07:09,120 advice is to your objectives financial situation. 974 01:07:09,320 --> 01:07:09,960 And needs.