1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:03,200 Righto money monitors. We've got some gold fodder to 2 00:00:03,240 --> 00:00:06,760 bloody feed the episode today, bought to you by Quattro Project 3 00:00:06,760 --> 00:00:08,680 Engineering. Who else would you pick? 4 00:00:09,480 --> 00:00:13,160 Well, we'd pick seven others actually, but yeah. 5 00:00:13,680 --> 00:00:15,640 Not BBC mate, I've already picked Quattro. 6 00:00:15,680 --> 00:00:19,160 That that this is true but like I could pick any partner for a 7 00:00:19,160 --> 00:00:22,000 great episode because they're all great but. 8 00:00:22,000 --> 00:00:23,600 The stars have lined up for this one, though. 9 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:27,000 Quattro project Engineering. When you're talking about gold, 10 00:00:27,200 --> 00:00:29,200 talking about getting these projects, would that be 11 00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:30,440 underground or whatever you want? 12 00:00:31,080 --> 00:00:33,200 Quattro Project Engineering. Right. 13 00:00:33,280 --> 00:00:37,000 They're at Underground Operators Conference along with myself. 14 00:00:37,120 --> 00:00:39,840 In a couple of weeks they're going to have a big tent down 15 00:00:39,840 --> 00:00:44,560 and say G'day to Jeremy Palmer and the team about all your APC 16 00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:48,200 design engineer construct needs. Their friggin gurus. 17 00:00:49,040 --> 00:00:55,280 And he's about to give a bit of a guru analysis on gold Rd. gold 18 00:00:55,280 --> 00:00:58,040 fields. Mate, I love a hostile. 19 00:00:58,160 --> 00:01:02,800 I love a hostile deal this is. When it's a big mob like that 20 00:01:02,800 --> 00:01:04,480 too. Oh, that you wouldn't think a 21 00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:06,640 guy hostile. It sends tingles down a spine. 22 00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:08,680 I'm frothing just thinking about it. 23 00:01:08,680 --> 00:01:11,480 I'm probably getting tingles. Outside so keen to talk about 24 00:01:11,480 --> 00:01:15,280 it. Oh, and of course, and tell you 25 00:01:15,280 --> 00:01:20,320 what, bloody action-packed yesterday on the Bellevue front. 26 00:01:20,400 --> 00:01:23,600 And we haven't got all the info yet, but obviously we're gonna 27 00:01:23,600 --> 00:01:26,920 give a what we know what we infer, and there's a bit 28 00:01:26,920 --> 00:01:30,000 happening there. So that'll be the back half. 29 00:01:30,000 --> 00:01:34,640 So right away, Goldfield's Gold Rd. we mentioned it briefly the 30 00:01:34,640 --> 00:01:36,800 other day, the article coming out. 31 00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:40,520 There's been plenty of news coverage and comments from 32 00:01:41,360 --> 00:01:45,560 executives involved in this. And boys, how do we want to map 33 00:01:45,560 --> 00:01:46,920 it out? Should we go through a bit of a 34 00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:49,080 timeline? Yeah, Maddie, run through a bit 35 00:01:49,080 --> 00:01:52,240 of a, a timeline because it's really interesting to reflect a 36 00:01:52,240 --> 00:01:55,440 bit on the there's like been a slight change in tone. 37 00:01:55,680 --> 00:01:58,240 I think we've picked up on, on how they're talking about it. 38 00:01:58,240 --> 00:02:01,880 But you know, it, it came out earlier this week, but clearly 39 00:02:01,880 --> 00:02:03,000 the companies were in discussion. 40 00:02:03,000 --> 00:02:06,360 So run us through quickly how it seems from the outside things 41 00:02:06,360 --> 00:02:08,720 transpired. Yeah, like in the news stories, 42 00:02:08,720 --> 00:02:10,800 I think they've evolved a bit. Like there was questions at the 43 00:02:10,800 --> 00:02:16,920 start about no, like not being not engaging, but then there's 44 00:02:16,920 --> 00:02:20,200 like admissions of engagement and between the companies and 45 00:02:20,200 --> 00:02:22,200 like this is I guess what we know so far. 46 00:02:22,200 --> 00:02:26,240 So apparently on 7th of March, Mike Fraser, the head of 47 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:31,360 Goldfields, he sent the NBIO to Tim Necha at Gold Rd. chair. 48 00:02:31,480 --> 00:02:36,120 Yep. And then so that was followed 49 00:02:36,120 --> 00:02:38,040 by, and this is for all of Gold Rd. 50 00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:39,880 It's not like some people thought it was just for Grey. 51 00:02:39,880 --> 00:02:43,320 This is for to take Gold Rd. out now. 52 00:02:43,320 --> 00:02:47,360 This was followed by a phone call in a like guess a a week to 53 00:02:47,360 --> 00:02:50,160 consider the offer and at some point during that like 54 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:54,520 Goldfield's Gold Rd. rejected the NBIO and then their counter 55 00:02:54,520 --> 00:02:58,240 offer was what was disguised in the announcement that they 56 00:02:58,240 --> 00:03:01,880 wanted to buy 50% of grey air off Goldfields. 57 00:03:01,880 --> 00:03:03,560 And that's a pretty interesting counter offer, isn't it? 58 00:03:03,760 --> 00:03:05,160 Yeah, it's like. It's like, it's like not right 59 00:03:05,160 --> 00:03:06,720 there. It's not like we want more cash. 60 00:03:06,720 --> 00:03:08,480 It's like, no, no, no. You buy me, I'll buy you. 61 00:03:12,120 --> 00:03:15,400 And so anyway, Goldfields to climb that counter offer, which 62 00:03:15,400 --> 00:03:20,040 I said in the announcement and then Mike Fraser from head of 63 00:03:20,040 --> 00:03:23,560 Goldfields, he apparently flew to Perth sort of 19th, 20th of 64 00:03:23,560 --> 00:03:28,880 March to friendly negotiated the deal requested and that was like 65 00:03:28,880 --> 00:03:30,960 requested by a team. So I was all like looked, 66 00:03:31,440 --> 00:03:35,360 sounded all right there and met on consecutive days which the 67 00:03:35,360 --> 00:03:38,360 West that was in the West Australian article as well. 68 00:03:38,880 --> 00:03:41,800 And they sounds like they got a commitment that they'd sort of 69 00:03:41,800 --> 00:03:46,080 be back to him by Sunday 23rd. Yeah, which was previous just 70 00:03:46,080 --> 00:03:49,600 the Sunday just gone and here's there might have been a bit of 71 00:03:50,360 --> 00:03:52,880 stalling and nothing sort of coming back and nothing. 72 00:03:52,880 --> 00:03:57,680 And it got to the stage where Goldfields had a board meeting 73 00:03:57,680 --> 00:04:01,720 on the apparently had a board meeting on the Sunday and said 74 00:04:01,720 --> 00:04:06,040 they were going, it just wasn't really didn't look like it was 75 00:04:06,280 --> 00:04:10,160 progressing towards an answer. And they essentially said they 76 00:04:10,160 --> 00:04:12,800 were going live with it tomorrow, which is when we, 77 00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:15,360 yeah, talked about it on the Monday just before the show. 78 00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:18,320 So that is what we think we know. 79 00:04:18,440 --> 00:04:21,760 And the, the strategy is they've like gold fields themselves have 80 00:04:21,760 --> 00:04:23,880 disclosed the fact that they've, they've confidentially submitted 81 00:04:23,880 --> 00:04:25,960 this bid and this is the price and these are the terms. 82 00:04:25,960 --> 00:04:29,080 And, and as Duncan Gibbs will proudly tell the press, that's a 83 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:31,320 bear hug strategy in the investment banking circles, 84 00:04:31,320 --> 00:04:32,840 which you don't, you don't see many of these. 85 00:04:32,840 --> 00:04:37,520 Like even in the yeah. Like I'm, I'm trying to think of 86 00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:39,120 the last one I saw in the resources space. 87 00:04:39,160 --> 00:04:41,600 I thought metals X ones when they did that, when they when 88 00:04:41,600 --> 00:04:45,280 they talked about their one of, of green tech was sort of like a 89 00:04:45,280 --> 00:04:46,560 bear hug. But I actually just think it was 90 00:04:46,560 --> 00:04:48,960 a compliance thing. They weren't trying to pressure 91 00:04:48,960 --> 00:04:50,240 an outcome there. Yeah, yeah. 92 00:04:50,280 --> 00:04:54,080 Before that deep yellow Vimy is the last one I remember Oh yeah 93 00:04:54,800 --> 00:04:58,120 yeah which did lead to an outcome but I did think it would 94 00:04:58,120 --> 00:05:02,000 be worthwhile kind of just reflecting on the on the 95 00:05:02,000 --> 00:05:04,920 funkiness of of the joint venture like like this is an 96 00:05:04,920 --> 00:05:07,840 obvious consolidation I mean look Gold Rd. have a non 97 00:05:07,840 --> 00:05:11,320 controlling joint venture interest inquiry yeah Goldfields 98 00:05:11,320 --> 00:05:14,360 is operator. Surely surely there'd been like 99 00:05:14,800 --> 00:05:16,880 plans that it's a logical consolidation. 100 00:05:16,880 --> 00:05:19,840 Why hasn't it happened before And I and I think it's just 101 00:05:19,840 --> 00:05:24,120 worth reiterating that no deal has has happened to date and I 102 00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:26,200 think a big part of that is the joint venture agreement included 103 00:05:26,200 --> 00:05:30,200 a standstill that prevented gold fields from acquiring any 104 00:05:30,200 --> 00:05:33,720 further interest in gold roads. So in practice say gold fields 105 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:36,720 wants to do a deal maybe historically maybe they submit 106 00:05:36,720 --> 00:05:39,840 an MBIO confidentially and gold Rd. could theoretically keep 107 00:05:39,840 --> 00:05:43,040 knocking them back over and over and and what gold fields like 108 00:05:43,040 --> 00:05:44,480 what are they to do in that situation? 109 00:05:44,480 --> 00:05:47,440 They can't they can't buy a private spike and kind of exert 110 00:05:47,600 --> 00:05:50,320 pressure and in instead gone away that you know, there's a 111 00:05:50,320 --> 00:05:52,120 stance to preventing them from from from doing that. 112 00:05:52,600 --> 00:05:54,520 So you want to do a friendly deal. 113 00:05:54,520 --> 00:05:57,240 It's like the the you know, everyone wants to a friendly 114 00:05:57,240 --> 00:05:58,400 deal if they can do a friendly deal. 115 00:05:58,720 --> 00:06:01,880 And I've never seen gold fields roll out a hostile tactics 116 00:06:01,880 --> 00:06:04,120 before. So I I kind of thought that they 117 00:06:04,120 --> 00:06:06,640 were too neutral and kind of have it in them to to even do 118 00:06:06,640 --> 00:06:08,160 this playbook in some some respects. 119 00:06:08,160 --> 00:06:11,680 But senior management at the at the company has changed in the 120 00:06:11,680 --> 00:06:14,800 last year or so. And maybe maybe if they're going 121 00:06:14,800 --> 00:06:17,200 about things differently now, you know, instead of accepting 122 00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:19,560 the stalemate that they're in because of the the standstill in 123 00:06:19,560 --> 00:06:21,320 the JV agreement, they're actually willing to get their 124 00:06:21,320 --> 00:06:24,000 hands dirty and roll out the public pressure that comes with 125 00:06:24,000 --> 00:06:26,120 this bear hug kind of hostile playbook. 126 00:06:26,280 --> 00:06:27,680 Yeah. Well, and like it looks at the 127 00:06:27,960 --> 00:06:31,480 looks like from there and the efforts were made to make it 128 00:06:31,480 --> 00:06:34,480 friendly, like they flew over to discuss it. 129 00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:38,560 And like that if if you look at the timeline, it's effectively 130 00:06:38,560 --> 00:06:44,440 gone from that MBII being submitted, it's gone 2 and a bit 131 00:06:44,440 --> 00:06:49,680 weeks. Do you think that's is that a 132 00:06:49,680 --> 00:06:52,320 time you'd think, oh, this is going on too long now we're 133 00:06:52,320 --> 00:06:56,760 going to go hostile on this or doesn't seem to be too long. 134 00:06:57,240 --> 00:06:59,840 Time can kill deals, but I don't think that's how things played 135 00:06:59,840 --> 00:07:02,520 out. I mean, I think the they put 136 00:07:02,520 --> 00:07:06,840 they put a number on the table and if if gold roads like 137 00:07:06,840 --> 00:07:08,520 response to that is this number is not enough. 138 00:07:08,520 --> 00:07:10,560 Well, clearly the discussions of the two days was well, you're 139 00:07:10,560 --> 00:07:12,240 going to have to tell me a number that is appropriate and 140 00:07:12,240 --> 00:07:13,840 then we can work from there and if. 141 00:07:13,840 --> 00:07:15,520 They they've obviously come over to negotiate. 142 00:07:15,560 --> 00:07:16,720 Yeah. And if they haven't been given a 143 00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:19,720 number in that two days, like, you know, you're kind of just 144 00:07:20,000 --> 00:07:23,000 you're, you're just like, well, this a minor situation where I'm 145 00:07:23,320 --> 00:07:26,400 I, I like I'm, I'm, I'm kind of get a deal done because you're 146 00:07:26,400 --> 00:07:29,000 not going to give me a number to negotiate from. 147 00:07:29,200 --> 00:07:32,160 Yeah, that's it. It's a valid It's a valid reason 148 00:07:32,160 --> 00:07:34,040 to to to employ a bear hug if that's what's happened. 149 00:07:34,080 --> 00:07:37,960 I, I found a very, very interesting the, if you look at, 150 00:07:38,000 --> 00:07:43,360 I'll bring the quarterly up just to one of the Gold roads 151 00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:46,240 previous announcements, you'll see at the bottom it says this 152 00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:48,400 release has been authorised by the board. 153 00:07:48,440 --> 00:07:54,120 And you look at the release about the this MBIO, it said 154 00:07:54,200 --> 00:07:57,320 this release was authorised by Duncan Gibbs, the MD and CEO, 155 00:07:57,720 --> 00:08:01,000 not authorised whether that's reading into things too much. 156 00:08:01,000 --> 00:08:07,360 But the question is, Duncan being a, he had I think well 157 00:08:07,360 --> 00:08:11,720 over a decade of experience in as GM for Tropicana Sunrise. 158 00:08:11,720 --> 00:08:16,480 So he's been operational before. Whether he has his intention is 159 00:08:16,480 --> 00:08:20,200 like wanting to run a mine versus possibly other people on 160 00:08:20,200 --> 00:08:23,960 the board or shareholders that would rather take the cash and 161 00:08:23,960 --> 00:08:26,520 if there's any division there, I don't know, but. 162 00:08:27,160 --> 00:08:31,160 Yeah, yeah. It's interesting to yeah to to 163 00:08:31,160 --> 00:08:35,440 think about the strategy Trevs you as you touched on the other 164 00:08:35,440 --> 00:08:39,120 day in light of how gold fields have gone about M and a very 165 00:08:39,120 --> 00:08:42,200 recently with a Cisco. Yeah, it is it. 166 00:08:42,200 --> 00:08:45,960 So you, you do the bear hug and then what you're hoping for is 167 00:08:45,960 --> 00:08:50,400 that there's a bunch of a bunch of Gold Rd. shareholders who 168 00:08:50,400 --> 00:08:52,880 were who were suddenly kind of like, oh, hang on, I want this, 169 00:08:52,920 --> 00:08:54,640 this looks pretty good. And they pick up the phone and 170 00:08:54,640 --> 00:08:58,720 they put a bunch of pressure on the, the, the board and 171 00:08:58,720 --> 00:09:00,960 management of the company to meaningfully engage and 172 00:09:00,960 --> 00:09:02,600 negotiate a value of creative outcome here. 173 00:09:02,600 --> 00:09:05,120 And sometimes that's kind of needed if you're, if you're 174 00:09:05,520 --> 00:09:10,360 facing, you know, a pretty, a pretty brick wall approach 175 00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:12,360 otherwise. And, and I think it's, I think 176 00:09:12,360 --> 00:09:15,320 it's working like, and I applaud it from from gold fields. 177 00:09:16,760 --> 00:09:19,480 You could you could I've read this one quote in the Wall 178 00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:23,160 Street Journal article where where Duncan is quite quoted 179 00:09:23,160 --> 00:09:26,280 saying that this was the only is this is the only offer received 180 00:09:26,640 --> 00:09:30,400 to it says goldfields has to date only put forward 1 proposed 181 00:09:30,400 --> 00:09:34,000 1 proposed price, says Gibbs. There's been no to and fro here 182 00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:37,640 in terms of price discussion. It take it's take it or leave 183 00:09:37,640 --> 00:09:39,600 it, he said. And, and then that's going 184 00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:42,360 straight into a public arena. So I've read that. 185 00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:45,640 And like Duncan's suggestion is that they haven't received a bid 186 00:09:45,640 --> 00:09:47,360 before. And while that might technically 187 00:09:47,360 --> 00:09:50,080 be correct, referring to the situation like right right now, 188 00:09:50,080 --> 00:09:53,880 this, this sort of period in time, I, I would find it like 189 00:09:54,040 --> 00:09:57,160 hard to believe that Gold Rd. has never received an NBIO from 190 00:09:57,160 --> 00:10:01,360 gold fields over the 10 years that the two companies have have 191 00:10:01,360 --> 00:10:05,120 been joint venture partners for. I'd love to to ask the question, 192 00:10:05,800 --> 00:10:08,160 you know, to to people in the North Gold Rd. over the last 10 193 00:10:08,160 --> 00:10:11,760 years, how many bids has has gold fields, you know, 194 00:10:11,760 --> 00:10:14,680 confidentially submitted, like how many MB iOS have kind of, 195 00:10:14,760 --> 00:10:17,280 you know, been tended to to a chairman over the period of the 196 00:10:17,280 --> 00:10:18,600 last decade? I'd love to know the answer to 197 00:10:18,600 --> 00:10:20,040 that. And we we're not going to get an 198 00:10:20,040 --> 00:10:23,320 answer to that if we asked it, But I'll pose it not because I'm 199 00:10:23,320 --> 00:10:27,360 like, you know, like I, I know the answer, but but more because 200 00:10:27,360 --> 00:10:30,440 I'm doubtful that that Goldfield's plan I used to is to 201 00:10:30,440 --> 00:10:32,440 roll out a hostile playbook. Everyone wants to do a friendly 202 00:10:32,440 --> 00:10:34,920 deal, friendly deals, like way easier to get get done, you 203 00:10:34,920 --> 00:10:38,400 know, cheaper. It's it's, it's just like you 204 00:10:38,400 --> 00:10:40,480 don't you don't go hostile just because just to be a Dick. 205 00:10:40,480 --> 00:10:43,520 I mean, maybe some people might, but it's, it's a bit like it's 206 00:10:43,520 --> 00:10:44,800 a. Anyway, all this is coming. 207 00:10:44,800 --> 00:10:46,760 If you want to, if you want to go hostile to be a Dick, you do 208 00:10:46,760 --> 00:10:48,920 it on Christmas Eve. Yeah, yeah. 209 00:10:49,440 --> 00:10:52,360 But they but they're like, I'll go through some of the comments 210 00:10:52,360 --> 00:10:57,200 in the the West and everything like because it's it's this is I 211 00:10:57,200 --> 00:11:02,440 assume it says Oh yeah, the chief of gold Rd. has accused. 212 00:11:02,440 --> 00:11:04,240 Yeah, yeah. So this obviously Duncan Giggs 213 00:11:04,240 --> 00:11:07,200 comments talking about goldfields at best a bumbling 214 00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:10,360 joint venture partner. The stance they've adopted is 215 00:11:10,360 --> 00:11:13,600 very hostile and aggressive. It's a lowball price given it 216 00:11:13,600 --> 00:11:16,280 comes not long after a production downgrade at career 217 00:11:16,280 --> 00:11:19,680 and before an much anticipated underground mining study. 218 00:11:19,680 --> 00:11:24,800 So it's yeah pretty anyway. Well, it's not a friendly deal 219 00:11:24,800 --> 00:11:29,200 now after you slagging them in the paper, but they but the 220 00:11:29,720 --> 00:11:32,800 yeah, talking about opportunistic when it's like all 221 00:11:32,800 --> 00:11:36,240 time the degray outcome has been achieved. 222 00:11:36,480 --> 00:11:39,840 It's all time high share price and Oh no, it's functioning the 223 00:11:39,840 --> 00:11:45,720 gold price, but it's it's just yeah, it's a it's I think it's 224 00:11:46,240 --> 00:11:48,880 it says something that the price hasn't got to the offer price 225 00:11:48,880 --> 00:11:49,680 yet. The share price. 226 00:11:49,680 --> 00:11:51,680 It doesn't mean I don't think it's cracked $3 yet. 227 00:11:51,680 --> 00:11:52,960 The. The the the points you make 228 00:11:53,000 --> 00:11:54,520 there, they're actually. 3 bucks today. 229 00:11:54,520 --> 00:11:57,200 They're actually valid points to make, like. 230 00:11:57,480 --> 00:11:59,440 I don't think that they're not valid points to make. 231 00:12:00,960 --> 00:12:05,920 I I just think they kind of, you know, there's, there's yeah, a 232 00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:08,240 bunch of other contexts that makes you kind of, you know, 233 00:12:09,040 --> 00:12:12,160 yeah, wash, wash your, your eyes over it a little bit because it 234 00:12:12,240 --> 00:12:15,120 yeah, if there's, if there is a study to come out that I think 235 00:12:15,120 --> 00:12:17,400 there's more value than like that being in the public domain 236 00:12:17,400 --> 00:12:20,000 of course, let's you negotiate more value as well. 237 00:12:20,280 --> 00:12:23,920 I think that's a valid point to make, but the lack of engagement 238 00:12:23,920 --> 00:12:26,320 would be frustrating for for God Roy shareholders entirely. 239 00:12:26,400 --> 00:12:27,560 Yeah. And I think it, but it's more 240 00:12:27,560 --> 00:12:30,320 their their their counter offer, which is like it's this like OK, 241 00:12:30,320 --> 00:12:36,080 take 3 approximately $3 seven per share cash or we are going 242 00:12:36,080 --> 00:12:40,480 to go down the road of debt capital raises and stuff to buy 243 00:12:40,480 --> 00:12:43,760 50%. So as the the shareholders and 244 00:12:43,840 --> 00:12:48,760 which are like BlackRock 5%. Van Eck owns 9 and a bit that'd 245 00:12:48,760 --> 00:12:51,800 be, I think that'd be, as you said, very a bit of pressure 246 00:12:51,800 --> 00:12:55,920 going on about, hey, come on, is this the best thing for us? 247 00:12:56,520 --> 00:12:59,320 Yeah, the the relationship Gold Rd. seems to have with it's 248 00:12:59,320 --> 00:13:02,400 investor base is like interesting to say the least. 249 00:13:02,400 --> 00:13:06,920 I mean, you guys remember the reaction after the rumours with 250 00:13:06,920 --> 00:13:10,680 them wanting to get a stake in the windfall asset last year and 251 00:13:10,680 --> 00:13:12,720 how the market kind of spat the dummy and stuff? 252 00:13:12,760 --> 00:13:15,000 Greenstone asset. Greenstone. 253 00:13:15,040 --> 00:13:18,120 Yeah, exactly. Yeah, Yeah, it's, you know the 254 00:13:18,160 --> 00:13:20,760 the market didn't like that they didn't like the company going 255 00:13:20,760 --> 00:13:24,360 out and being keen on M&A. And so it doesn't seem like the 256 00:13:24,520 --> 00:13:29,320 most cordial relationship, but yeah, yeah, B And then to see 257 00:13:29,320 --> 00:13:31,160 what those and. Investors, like investors. 258 00:13:31,160 --> 00:13:36,760 There's not like huge sort of like active money there, if you 259 00:13:36,760 --> 00:13:38,360 know what I mean. Like a lot of it's the yeah, 260 00:13:38,360 --> 00:13:40,440 absolutely. The kind of passive captive 261 00:13:40,720 --> 00:13:43,560 passive ETS, passive, passive dumb kind of money in a lot of 262 00:13:43,560 --> 00:13:45,800 ways. Yeah, what the? 263 00:13:46,160 --> 00:13:48,440 The Cisco, the Cisco thing you mentioned windfall. 264 00:13:48,640 --> 00:13:51,640 So this was this was the other point I wanted to to, to make on 265 00:13:51,640 --> 00:13:54,040 the the the context with gold fields. 266 00:13:54,040 --> 00:13:55,920 Why I don't think like they're the sort of company that's just 267 00:13:55,920 --> 00:13:57,960 going to go hostile without a reason. 268 00:13:58,840 --> 00:14:01,920 If you if you look at when they acquired a Cisco last year and 269 00:14:01,920 --> 00:14:05,080 this was late last year, you can read the information circular 270 00:14:05,280 --> 00:14:11,160 and Cisco super similar kind of like situation to to go Gold Rd. 271 00:14:11,520 --> 00:14:13,200 It was a 5050 JV with Goldfields. 272 00:14:13,480 --> 00:14:15,720 They bought it out of Cisco to consolidate the windfall 273 00:14:15,720 --> 00:14:19,280 project. They upped their bid four times. 274 00:14:19,280 --> 00:14:22,640 So it was 5 separate valuations provided to a Cisco and that all 275 00:14:22,640 --> 00:14:24,640 happened behind closed doors never leaked. 276 00:14:24,640 --> 00:14:26,720 You know, there's no like that was just like meaningful 277 00:14:26,720 --> 00:14:29,280 dialogue. So it like golfers is clearly a 278 00:14:31,440 --> 00:14:34,800 dog miner in my eyes that is is willing to negotiate on value. 279 00:14:34,800 --> 00:14:38,440 They just have to have a receptiveness on that 280 00:14:38,440 --> 00:14:41,880 negotiating in that negotiating dialogue is is is how I would 281 00:14:41,880 --> 00:14:43,520 interpret it. And especially when there's been 282 00:14:43,520 --> 00:14:48,280 a baseline set of 3 bucks 7 this is we're willing to buy this and 283 00:14:48,960 --> 00:14:51,120 go up a bit. Yeah, I'll fly over and see you. 284 00:14:52,120 --> 00:14:54,800 But what what do you think about the the valuation? 285 00:14:54,920 --> 00:14:57,640 This is it. Is it opportunistic? 286 00:14:59,760 --> 00:15:02,360 Yeah, it's, I mean it's a super interesting question, right? 287 00:15:02,360 --> 00:15:07,160 Like obviously the, the value to to gold fields is superior to 288 00:15:07,160 --> 00:15:09,440 than anyone else because they are the JV partner. 289 00:15:09,440 --> 00:15:11,640 Maddie, if you, if you look at the price, we're talking about 290 00:15:11,640 --> 00:15:18,000 3.3 billion Aussie, you've got the degray stake at like 870 ish 291 00:15:18,240 --> 00:15:23,040 million in there and then another call it 180 million in 292 00:15:23,040 --> 00:15:25,080 cash. But I mean, we should probably 293 00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:27,960 pause on the Degray stake for a minute given like there's 294 00:15:27,960 --> 00:15:30,800 various assumptions in what happens going, going from there, 295 00:15:30,800 --> 00:15:32,720 right? Yeah, well, even the the 296 00:15:32,720 --> 00:15:35,720 structure it's just worth worth teasing out. 297 00:15:35,960 --> 00:15:38,160 So what gold food is offering is an all cash offer, but there's a 298 00:15:38,160 --> 00:15:39,920 fixed component and a flexible component. 299 00:15:40,200 --> 00:15:42,120 Fixed component is 2 bucks 27 cash. 300 00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:44,880 The variable component is another 80 ish cents. 301 00:15:44,880 --> 00:15:49,000 But that's variable depending on the implied valuation of of the 302 00:15:49,000 --> 00:15:52,440 de grey stake, you know? Which is what Northern Star 303 00:15:52,440 --> 00:15:54,120 trades out effectively. Exactly. 304 00:15:54,120 --> 00:15:57,400 So they, they, they framed the premium in in a few different 305 00:15:57,400 --> 00:16:02,840 ways in gold, gold fields letter that they put out and gold Rd. 306 00:16:02,840 --> 00:16:07,200 they focus on this 28% premium, which sounds like, you know, 307 00:16:07,200 --> 00:16:10,360 not, not not huge, but that's the wrong way to interpret this 308 00:16:10,360 --> 00:16:12,280 premium. This is a 44% premium. 309 00:16:12,520 --> 00:16:15,000 You shouldn't be including the value of of the degrade shares 310 00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:17,200 in your premium calcs. Yeah, just like no one wants to 311 00:16:17,200 --> 00:16:20,840 pay a premium on cash, you know, like you, you sort of like, you 312 00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:22,280 know, you're not paying a control premium on cash. 313 00:16:22,280 --> 00:16:23,840 Well, it's the same here with the Degray stake. 314 00:16:23,840 --> 00:16:26,960 Like the, the way that that Gold Fields has gone about this, it 315 00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:30,040 really just removes any, any sense of a strategic premium 316 00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:32,680 associated with that Degray stake. 317 00:16:32,680 --> 00:16:34,640 And you should net that off. This is a, this is a, you know, 318 00:16:34,840 --> 00:16:39,240 a 44% premium and that's, it's kind of like a pretty, a pretty 319 00:16:39,240 --> 00:16:41,400 generous starting position in negotiations I would have 320 00:16:41,400 --> 00:16:43,120 thought. So, so they're, they're 321 00:16:43,120 --> 00:16:47,360 definitely they're effective. Are they effectively saying that 322 00:16:47,360 --> 00:16:51,600 they would pay Goldfield's approximately 2 1/2 bill for 323 00:16:51,600 --> 00:16:55,080 their 50% stake? So if they're if they want to. 324 00:16:55,840 --> 00:16:59,880 Call it 2.2 ish. Two point about 2.2. 325 00:17:00,440 --> 00:17:06,000 Yeah, and and Gold Rd. reflected that by saying we'll counter and 326 00:17:06,000 --> 00:17:09,160 bid 2.3 for your half. Oh, did they say? 327 00:17:09,160 --> 00:17:13,280 Did they give a quantity a a a size that they they would put 328 00:17:13,280 --> 00:17:15,240 in? I'm pretty sure they did, yeah. 329 00:17:15,560 --> 00:17:16,359 Right. Oh yeah. 330 00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:20,319 Yeah, which was obviously bounced back by by Goldfields, 331 00:17:20,319 --> 00:17:23,319 but yeah, to what you said, Trevor. 332 00:17:23,319 --> 00:17:26,359 I think it is a pretty, pretty generous starting point on where 333 00:17:26,359 --> 00:17:30,440 the market had kind of been valuing Gold Rd. previously. 334 00:17:30,720 --> 00:17:33,840 And yeah, and then talking about the Northern Star, there's 335 00:17:34,200 --> 00:17:37,680 obviously a few different potential ways that can play out 336 00:17:37,680 --> 00:17:40,360 assuming say Northern Star, it becomes Northern Star shares 337 00:17:40,360 --> 00:17:44,200 rather those degree shares turn into Northern Star shares. 338 00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:47,600 They have discussed in the past maybe an in specie distribution 339 00:17:47,880 --> 00:17:51,880 if they want to turn that into cash and look at M&A or 340 00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:54,160 something like that, which they've sort of been eager to do 341 00:17:54,160 --> 00:17:56,280 in the past. There's a tax implication as 342 00:17:56,280 --> 00:17:57,840 well. Yeah. 343 00:17:57,840 --> 00:18:02,280 And like that's a Gray stake. I do think it's it's, it's 344 00:18:02,280 --> 00:18:04,480 actually a point that not, not no one's really talking about, I 345 00:18:04,480 --> 00:18:06,760 don't think. But there's the, the value of 346 00:18:06,760 --> 00:18:09,560 gold Rd. stake in degree as well, like 890,000,000, you 347 00:18:09,560 --> 00:18:12,440 know, plus or minus depending on, on, on any given day, if 348 00:18:12,440 --> 00:18:14,920 they, if they sold that stake at any point, there's a very chunky 349 00:18:15,120 --> 00:18:17,400 capital gains tax that they're going to have to pay. 350 00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:21,040 And on my, my Bush math numbers, that tax is about $150 million 351 00:18:21,280 --> 00:18:24,720 in tax that they'd have to pay on the monetization of, of that 352 00:18:24,720 --> 00:18:28,240 stake in degree. And no, no gold fields like in 353 00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:31,560 their, in their offer, they, they are generously haven't even 354 00:18:31,560 --> 00:18:36,440 applied a deduction in the variable component of the offer 355 00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:39,680 for gold Rd. of the tax that would be payable here for them 356 00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:41,280 to to monetize it, right? They're actually, they're going 357 00:18:41,280 --> 00:18:44,000 to pay 100 cents on whatever the value of the degree stake is, 358 00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:47,840 even though for gold Rd. if they were to, to monetize that there 359 00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:49,960 is a, a payable tax. I think what's actually 360 00:18:49,960 --> 00:18:52,520 realizable is what you get after tax and that's kind of what's 361 00:18:52,960 --> 00:18:54,120 gonna be attributed shareholders. 362 00:18:54,120 --> 00:18:56,320 They were, yeah. Yeah, if they were to sell the 363 00:18:56,320 --> 00:18:58,920 shares. Precisely so you know for gold 364 00:18:58,920 --> 00:19:03,360 Rd. think about what that means for for them in terms of like 365 00:19:03,360 --> 00:19:05,640 you're comparing your different alternative strategies and and 366 00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:08,360 what Gold Rd. pen was. Oh no, we'll monetise our stake 367 00:19:08,360 --> 00:19:10,840 and we'll buy you out. Well, OK, so now, now you've, 368 00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:15,400 you're actually you're having a punitive impact on, on your on 369 00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:17,400 your value because of the tax implications there. 370 00:19:17,640 --> 00:19:19,000 Then what he's kind of tabled to you. 371 00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:21,200 It's. And if, if gold Rd. were to 372 00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:24,320 achieve like a a like for like outcome on just the, the, the 373 00:19:24,320 --> 00:19:28,080 see through value situation of, of that offer to pay 100 cents 374 00:19:28,080 --> 00:19:30,360 on it, which is, which is what you know, Golden fields are 375 00:19:30,360 --> 00:19:33,200 saying they'd have to sell the stake for like 20% higher than 376 00:19:33,760 --> 00:19:35,200 degrade shares of trading right now. 377 00:19:35,200 --> 00:19:37,560 And no one's going to buy the strategic static at a 20% 378 00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:39,440 premium. And, and I think like it's, it's 379 00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:41,800 actually quite a clever thing that the gold fields have done 380 00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:44,200 because I've really just like pulled the pin on the on the, on 381 00:19:44,200 --> 00:19:46,680 the argument that there's any kind of, you know, premium or 382 00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:48,840 strategic value sort of associated with the, with the, 383 00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:51,360 with the degree stake there. Yeah. 384 00:19:53,040 --> 00:19:54,880 Yeah, yeah. And I mean, if we expand the 385 00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:58,080 conversation on on valuation, just going beyond that that 386 00:19:58,080 --> 00:20:00,840 stake and look at the actual cash flows that the business 387 00:20:00,840 --> 00:20:04,040 does, because I think, you know, I find this the the most 388 00:20:04,040 --> 00:20:06,600 interesting part of it. Like we're talking about a 389 00:20:06,600 --> 00:20:09,520 company that did like $90,000,000 in free cash flow in 390 00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:12,280 2024. They haven't knocked the lights 391 00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:15,280 out in, in terms of cash flow in recent years and obviously they 392 00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:18,400 can point the finger at Goldfields for that being the 393 00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:21,880 case. But yeah and and maybe there is 394 00:20:21,880 --> 00:20:24,840 additional synergies and that the the cash print is a bit 395 00:20:24,840 --> 00:20:28,520 better if it's all in one case. But if you look at 2025, they're 396 00:20:28,520 --> 00:20:33,800 guiding to 170,000 oz at Aussie 2 and a half, $1000 all in 397 00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:35,480 sustaining costs. So. 398 00:20:35,760 --> 00:20:38,120 That's their half, half, half of the project. 399 00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:41,240 Yeah, that that's their half which they maintained guidance 400 00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:45,000 despite the the incident that sort of happened a month or so 401 00:20:45,080 --> 00:20:47,040 ago. So they've they've held that. 402 00:20:47,040 --> 00:20:50,800 But if you do kind of back of the envelope that's like $200 403 00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:55,160 million in in cash flow before other kind of expenses. 404 00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:59,760 So like we said maybe like two 2.2 ish billion it it looks 405 00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:03,800 pretty, pretty reasonable on those sorts of grounds. 406 00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:07,440 And to be clear, they've given their three-year strategy and 407 00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:10,600 they've flatlined production. So it should maintain the same 408 00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:14,640 level for the next three years. We'll see what kind of cost do 409 00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:18,560 they did say kind of through 26 they should improve a little bit 410 00:21:18,560 --> 00:21:21,400 once they've done done a bit of strip and and a few other bits 411 00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:25,640 and pieces. But yeah, you then need to go 412 00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:27,960 one step further and and think about growth, right, Because the 413 00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:32,840 open pit is going to be mined to 2032 as it currently kind of 414 00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:34,480 stands. And there's all this discussion 415 00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:37,880 about the underground study. Now this is a, an all body that 416 00:21:37,880 --> 00:21:42,560 runs in the, in the low 1g per ton type thing, you know, maybe 417 00:21:42,560 --> 00:21:46,000 1.31.4. There's an, there was previously 418 00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:51,880 an underground resource there that stood at just under 1.6g 419 00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:54,560 per ton. The, the overall ounces in the 420 00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:57,640 underground component were reduced last time they came out 421 00:21:57,640 --> 00:22:01,160 with their R&R statement because they dropped the pitch shell a 422 00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:04,680 bit deeper given the kind of friendly gold environment that 423 00:22:04,680 --> 00:22:06,440 we're experiencing at the moment. 424 00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:09,360 But I mean, maybe one more for you, Maddie, where do you kind 425 00:22:09,360 --> 00:22:15,840 of see a 1.58g per tonne ore body, you know, being mined 426 00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:17,440 underground? Do you see that as feasible? 427 00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:20,400 I mean, granted, this is like a twenty 30s type discussion and 428 00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:23,440 maybe the the environment is a bit friendly and we can, you 429 00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:27,920 know, forget that 2G per ton. It ticks lower and lower, but 430 00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:32,240 it's yeah, it it seems to be rather at the at the low end in 431 00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:33,280 in my view. What do you reckon? 432 00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:36,560 Yeah, it's, it's all a all a scale thing. 433 00:22:37,480 --> 00:22:41,800 I know you know the, the narrow. I think, I think it was Bryce 434 00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:44,680 talking about it on the AI chat talking, talking about how the 435 00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:48,720 all the open pits have been discovered in mine and 436 00:22:48,720 --> 00:22:49,920 everything's going on underground. 437 00:22:49,920 --> 00:22:53,800 It's, it's, you'd notice a lot of the exploration now, like 438 00:22:54,520 --> 00:22:58,400 there's shit loads of open pits because grades are everything's 439 00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:02,720 there and it's now being mined at much different prices. 440 00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:06,280 So all our grade calcs that we used to do just don't make sense 441 00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:07,880 anymore. Cut off grade gets lowered. 442 00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:11,120 Yeah, it used to. It used to be 4G had to be 4G 443 00:23:11,120 --> 00:23:13,320 for an underground, 2G for an open pit. 444 00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:18,120 And now that's just halved. So you can I, I don't see it as 445 00:23:18,360 --> 00:23:22,160 out of the realm of possibility at all by 20-30 that you could 446 00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:27,240 make a, a 2,000,000 tonne underground operation at 1.6 and 447 00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:31,240 B significantly profitable, but with the scale of those ones 448 00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:34,680 requires a lot of capital to get it to that stage. 449 00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:39,960 So 20-30 could be printing cash by 2035 for instance, to develop 450 00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:42,760 the infrastructure. Yeah, and and you, but you want 451 00:23:42,760 --> 00:23:45,040 to be a bit conservative as well, right. 452 00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:49,280 Like you guys remember the the M and a discussion we we recorded 453 00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:53,680 just a, a couple of weeks ago and all the deals around 2012 454 00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:56,560 that were there were people factoring in what the gold price 455 00:23:56,560 --> 00:24:00,400 had done in the last year. You know, re redoing the, the 456 00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:02,680 block models and everything and the, the pitch shells and 457 00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:05,160 everything and things reversed very quickly. 458 00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:08,320 You know you want to be relatively conservative. 459 00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:10,280 It's it's a big, it's a big consistent ore body too. 460 00:24:10,360 --> 00:24:12,040 It's not. Like yeah, I was about to ask, 461 00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:14,200 is it a bit chunky? It's not like narrow fame where 462 00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:15,920 you've got all that dilution, all that sort of stuff. 463 00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:18,720 So the great on a you know, vis a vis you know. 464 00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:20,240 Yeah, yeah. And you're and you're just, 465 00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:23,120 you're getting absolutely, you're just getting better bang 466 00:24:23,120 --> 00:24:25,920 for buck for your infrastructure that you have to put in. 467 00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:27,760 You can monitor at a higher rate. 468 00:24:27,760 --> 00:24:31,360 So you know, yeah, you can, yeah, you definitely take you 469 00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:35,360 you're better mining 2,000,000 tonnes at 1.6 and 1,000,000 470 00:24:35,360 --> 00:24:39,440 tonne at 1.9 or two. Like it's just just lower grade, 471 00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:41,680 but just more of it that can better cost. 472 00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:44,440 So yeah, no, it's definitely yeah these. 473 00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:48,320 Yeah, they are. My historical knowledge is good. 474 00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:50,680 Fuck all these days because the prices are so different. 475 00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:55,120 The there is a bit of a kicker in there as well from about next 476 00:24:55,120 --> 00:24:58,640 year, as soon as like they've hit that 2 million oz that has 477 00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:02,400 come out, the ore body gold Rd. is going to get a 1.5% royalty. 478 00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:06,800 So that does make their their half quite a bit friendlier. 479 00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:09,800 That's that's a nice to have thing that was in the deal a 480 00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:12,520 while back. So yeah. 481 00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:15,840 And and to to round out on where the the broker community and 482 00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:18,000 where consensus kind of sits like they're trading close to 483 00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:22,040 1.1 times NAV. So, you know, you can always 484 00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:24,880 make the the argument and heaps of people make it that the 485 00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:27,560 consensus process flushed through is way below where we 486 00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:29,800 are. And and it doesn't factor in the 487 00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:33,960 optionality in in all bodies like this that are a Long live 488 00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:36,040 and staff so. Would that not include the 489 00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:40,400 underground yet, like and because there's no MPV on it? 490 00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:42,560 Or, or there'd be a there'd be. A. 491 00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:45,280 Because we put. It on yeah, yeah. 492 00:25:45,280 --> 00:25:47,600 Yeah, Yeah, they'd be talking about it. 493 00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:50,840 And this goes back to what I sort of said at the beginning 494 00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:54,040 about the change in tone from leadership at at Gold Rd. 495 00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:56,480 There's, there's been a focus I think in, in the past couple 496 00:25:56,480 --> 00:26:00,720 days on on value and we can chop out a snippet from a recent 497 00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:05,160 article where you hear Gibbs saying all of the correspondence 498 00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:07,480 in communication has been around value. 499 00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:10,520 And that kind of ties in with their counter proposal, doing it 500 00:26:10,520 --> 00:26:14,240 in line and saying, hey, we can buy you for the same amount 501 00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:16,000 you've pitched. That makes you really think 502 00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:18,840 about the value of what you've kind of put forward to us, which 503 00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:22,000 I think is fascinating, right? Big pivot, big pivot like so you 504 00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:26,680 read read gold roads initial response to the to the bear hug 505 00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:31,120 from from gold fields. And it was, I thought it was a 506 00:26:31,120 --> 00:26:35,200 poor letter if they were trying to negotiate on value. 507 00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:37,840 It seemed like a, you know, a reasonable letter to write if 508 00:26:37,840 --> 00:26:40,200 you're trying to say fuck off. But there. 509 00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:42,040 Was seemed like a great one if you want to burn the bridge. 510 00:26:42,360 --> 00:26:45,640 Yeah, exactly. So it was like if you were 511 00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:48,080 trying to negotiate on value in that letter, what you would say 512 00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:51,960 was, you know, we received a lowball offer from Goldfields. 513 00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:56,600 It it, it included no, no, no value attributable to our 100% 514 00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:58,640 owned assets. You know, Gilmore or whatever 515 00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:01,440 they, they're called included no value for our strategic equity 516 00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:04,760 positions in like Yandel and whatever else they own, right? 517 00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:06,440 Things like that. You would include and you would 518 00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:08,800 try and at least frame a discussion of like why it's such 519 00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:10,400 a lowball. And then that gives you some 520 00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:12,960 ground to stand on in negotiating further. 521 00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:15,800 If you want to negotiate, you kind of be sort of explicit 522 00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:18,920 about how much you've been undervalued and why to some 523 00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:21,080 extent. But, and, and we didn't see any 524 00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:22,800 of that. And now the Wall Street Journal 525 00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:25,840 article, like there's, there's talk of, of value. 526 00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:29,800 We're open to, we're open to, to, to, to discussions at the 527 00:27:29,800 --> 00:27:31,960 right price, like those sorts of like things there. 528 00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:35,120 And I just interpret that as like go, go for the strategies 529 00:27:35,120 --> 00:27:37,720 worked. Like you know, if, if you've, if 530 00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:40,120 you've changed the, the messaging in a short period of 531 00:27:40,120 --> 00:27:42,240 time, maybe maybe shareholders have picked up the phone and, 532 00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:44,800 and said, come on, that's it, it's time to do the deal. 533 00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:47,040 Yeah, because that that's none of that would. 534 00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:48,520 Come out public. Yeah, that's it. 535 00:27:48,520 --> 00:27:51,360 None of it would have come out public if it was negotiated in 536 00:27:51,360 --> 00:27:52,880 the 1st place. Could have stayed by and closed 537 00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:54,480 doors for three months. Ever. 538 00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:58,600 Yeah, yeah. Yeah, yeah, maybe he's not. 539 00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:01,400 The and the likes got in, got in the ear of Duncan and said hey, 540 00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:05,360 you should actually pick up the phone and have a a productive 541 00:28:05,360 --> 00:28:07,240 discussion. Big old Evie's been on the 542 00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:10,760 blower a bit this week, actually. 543 00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:12,600 The other part. Trav you. 544 00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:15,920 That, that, yeah, like so there will be obviously existing 545 00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:19,120 shareholders, but then you get your M&A ARB funds that get 546 00:28:19,120 --> 00:28:22,240 excited here as well. And if, if they buy a meaningful 547 00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:26,120 enough stake in Gold Rd. knowing that a deal is possible, well, 548 00:28:26,120 --> 00:28:28,840 all of a sudden you might have five, 1015% of your your 549 00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:32,440 register in a short period of time is now the M&A AAB funds 550 00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:34,960 who guess what, guess what they do, they exert the pressure to 551 00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:37,360 say, all right, time to get this deal done because that's my, 552 00:28:37,760 --> 00:28:40,960 that's my risk. That's that's my AB, yeah. 100% 553 00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:43,400 because if you look where the share price opened when it first 554 00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:46,440 got released and it came out in the afternoon and then it 555 00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:49,360 started trading, I want to say like 2 sixties, two 70s, and now 556 00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:51,720 we're talking about it touching on three bucks. 557 00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:54,520 So the belief in the market that a deal kind of gets done or 558 00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:57,440 another bid comes in or whatever has clearly risen as well, which 559 00:28:57,440 --> 00:29:00,520 is pretty noticeable. Yeah, I couldn't believe how far 560 00:29:00,520 --> 00:29:03,440 away it was on the first day. Like it wasn't even in the 561 00:29:03,600 --> 00:29:04,680 ballpark. It was like. 562 00:29:04,720 --> 00:29:08,440 Well, I think that's just speaks speaks to like how outright 563 00:29:08,440 --> 00:29:10,640 their rejection was initially. Yeah. 564 00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:13,840 And it's, it's, it's not, there's no, it's no certainty 565 00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:15,480 here, right. There's like a lot of, there's a 566 00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:17,600 lot to play out. So yeah, yeah, the, the, the 567 00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:20,240 risk if you were playing the ARB, there's a lot of risk of 568 00:29:20,240 --> 00:29:23,720 deal completion here. But yeah, the, the more M&A are 569 00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:26,480 funds by interestingly enough, the better your odds of closing 570 00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:28,880 the deal happen because you've got collective pressure to 571 00:29:28,880 --> 00:29:31,480 apply. Yeah, I do want to. 572 00:29:31,520 --> 00:29:32,680 So what? What are the? 573 00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:37,160 Defence bankers playing at then. So I'm going to, I'm going to 574 00:29:37,160 --> 00:29:39,960 kind of have a bit of a hypothetical here, if you would, 575 00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:44,520 if you're being really cynical and hypothesizing, what if, what 576 00:29:44,520 --> 00:29:48,160 if Gold Rd. you know, had bad intentions and, and, and wanted 577 00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:52,280 to do something to, to stay it's own company at the expense of 578 00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:54,720 maximizing shareholder value by doing a deal. 579 00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:55,920 What could they do? Right? 580 00:29:56,800 --> 00:30:00,200 And if you wanted to do that, what you do is you'd buy 581 00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:02,680 something kind of crap and pay too much for it. 582 00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:05,560 You'd enter the scheme implementation deed, pay too 583 00:30:05,560 --> 00:30:10,800 much and and what you would do is you as the acquirer structure 584 00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:13,840 that scheme implementation deed such that there was no fiduciary 585 00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:16,120 out for you, the acquirer. And then all of a sudden it's a 586 00:30:16,120 --> 00:30:18,560 poison pill, right? You're not attractive to to gold 587 00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:20,200 fields anymore because you just pay too much for something they 588 00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:22,320 didn't want. And there's no way to interlock 589 00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:25,040 it because there's no fiduciary out for for Gold Rd., the 590 00:30:25,040 --> 00:30:28,120 acquirer. It's only if it gets voted down 591 00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:30,680 by the target. Yeah, yeah, yeah. 592 00:30:30,680 --> 00:30:34,680 So it's a, it's a, it's a bit of a sinister thought, but you can 593 00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:37,240 never rule these things out. And in fact, JD, when you when 594 00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:41,080 you did your M and a disasters kind of episode earlier this 595 00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:43,120 week, like there are a couple of things in there that very well 596 00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:46,400 may have just been intentional bad deals to be poison pills for 597 00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:48,440 for a similar kind of rationale. So that I'm entertaining it. 598 00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:51,240 It's a possibility here, but I don't I'd like to think that it 599 00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:55,160 wouldn't be a possibility. I I will say though, if this 600 00:30:55,160 --> 00:30:59,640 unlikely but dark scenario does play out, it'll obviously open 601 00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:02,280 up, you know the board to a lot of criticism, not just because 602 00:31:02,280 --> 00:31:05,320 of the blatant opportunity cost of a of a decent deal with 603 00:31:05,320 --> 00:31:08,400 Goldfields now, but also because of hypocrisy. 604 00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:10,720 If it did happen. Do you guys remember the very 605 00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:13,800 first time we got into the weeds on fiduciary outs? 606 00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:17,120 I'll probably didn't remember because I didn't understand it. 607 00:31:19,400 --> 00:31:22,040 So we all got up. We exploded a fair bit in the 608 00:31:22,040 --> 00:31:24,160 The Battle for Leonora. Definitely didn't understand. 609 00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:27,480 And when we when we started the podcast, like the Battle for 610 00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:30,600 Leonora that we got tangled up in, it was the asset deal. 611 00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:33,400 But let's not forget the very first iteration of the deal with 612 00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:35,720 Genesis. It was actually St. 613 00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:39,200 Barbara acquiring Genesis, renaming to Hoover House and 614 00:31:39,200 --> 00:31:41,640 there was a spin out. For nation medals. 615 00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:44,120 Phoenician medals was going to be Atlantic and Sambarian and 616 00:31:44,120 --> 00:31:46,600 why I bring this up? Saint Barbara's chair of the 617 00:31:46,600 --> 00:31:48,520 board at that time, Team Netschha. 618 00:31:49,120 --> 00:31:51,120 Gold Roach chair right now, Team Netschha. 619 00:31:51,640 --> 00:31:54,960 And in version 1 where St. Barbara was the acquirer of 620 00:31:54,960 --> 00:31:59,600 Genesis, guess what was in the scheme implementation deed a 621 00:31:59,960 --> 00:32:04,040 fiduciary out for Saint Barbara. So and these these are not like 622 00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:07,280 ordinary to slip in as the acquirer like these fiduciary 623 00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:10,320 outs for the acquirer are are not customary. 624 00:32:10,320 --> 00:32:14,160 So this was probably insisted upon by by say Barbara by it, 625 00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:16,720 but maybe by Tim is kind of what I'm saying, but I don't know. 626 00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:21,560 But yeah, so it's like, if you why would you, why would you be 627 00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:23,680 part of a team that insisted on a fiduciary out for the acquirer 628 00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:26,240 in that situation then? And then and then this is in a 629 00:32:26,440 --> 00:32:29,960 in a sinister world, if, if gold bro did something bad like this, 630 00:32:30,240 --> 00:32:32,840 not not put a fiduciary out when you're when you're buying, when 631 00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:34,720 you're buying something, stay alive here. 632 00:32:34,800 --> 00:32:37,680 So it's just I'm getting, I'm getting like 5 steps ahead and I 633 00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:40,240 don't want to don't want to, you know, put anyone under the under 634 00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:41,960 the microscope when they literally have done no actions 635 00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:44,760 to to warrant it. But if in a really dark 636 00:32:44,760 --> 00:32:47,680 hypothetical world where where gold Rd. you know went the boys 637 00:32:47,680 --> 00:32:50,360 and people were out, they bet there better be a fiduciary out 638 00:32:50,360 --> 00:32:51,960 in that scheme. Implementation did, otherwise 639 00:32:51,960 --> 00:32:53,760 it'd be be inconsistent. Yeah. 640 00:32:54,200 --> 00:32:56,560 Is there. So are you thinking that the the 641 00:32:56,560 --> 00:33:00,760 tone is when you said the latest article talking about value, do 642 00:33:00,760 --> 00:33:03,120 you think we're sort of leaning towards possibly a bit of 643 00:33:03,600 --> 00:33:05,800 shareholder pressure towards Gold Rd. 644 00:33:05,800 --> 00:33:10,200 Engaging and getting a deal done for cash. 645 00:33:10,800 --> 00:33:14,120 Just opening negotiations again, I think is the the kind of first 646 00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:17,520 step and in any case, I think that's that's better for the 647 00:33:17,520 --> 00:33:20,880 relationship given that they are JV partners overall so. 648 00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:23,200 Can they? That's the they can't put a 649 00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:27,160 lower offer in, But yeah, they can only because it's like, hey. 650 00:33:27,240 --> 00:33:28,560 You can. I don't think it'd be received 651 00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:31,720 too well. Well, it's like, hey, yeah, 652 00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:35,160 thanks for the comments. In the paper was 3 bucks, 2 now 653 00:33:35,160 --> 00:33:37,120 Yeah. Yeah, well, it's kind of, it's 654 00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:39,240 kind of interesting, right, Because it's like if you're gold 655 00:33:39,600 --> 00:33:41,640 fields, you don't actually need to do DD. 656 00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:43,720 This is your asset. Like, yeah, what Like it's not 657 00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:46,040 like you're trying so that they're comfortable with the 658 00:33:46,040 --> 00:33:47,960 asset. It's it's, you know, all they 659 00:33:47,960 --> 00:33:50,040 need is a bit of a bit of receptiveness. 660 00:33:50,040 --> 00:33:51,640 There's no the conditionality here. 661 00:33:51,640 --> 00:33:54,160 It's like it's they've got net cash, they can pay for it. 662 00:33:54,480 --> 00:33:56,560 It's not going to be really conditional on technical DD 663 00:33:56,560 --> 00:33:58,640 because they know the asset better than anyone. 664 00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:03,480 So it's, it's, I think odds are here that a, that a, that a deal 665 00:34:03,560 --> 00:34:05,560 gets done. Yeah, yeah. 666 00:34:05,560 --> 00:34:08,040 And you could argue on the DD front that Goldfields might know 667 00:34:08,040 --> 00:34:10,760 the asset a bit better than Gold Rd. 668 00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:12,600 Oh gold gold. Is it just his cover? 669 00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:13,520 So I'll. Give him some credit. 670 00:34:15,080 --> 00:34:18,679 You see the detail with goldfields giving them after the 671 00:34:18,679 --> 00:34:22,280 after the the bid, the draft version of the underground 672 00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:24,600 study. Oh, no, I didn't say that, 673 00:34:24,600 --> 00:34:25,880 actually. Yeah, that's interesting. 674 00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:26,639 Yeah. Juicy. 675 00:34:26,639 --> 00:34:27,840 Little detail, yeah. Yeah, yeah. 676 00:34:28,639 --> 00:34:31,199 I don't but. Plays into the opportunistic 677 00:34:31,199 --> 00:34:33,560 framing that that Gold Rd. put forward. 678 00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:38,120 But how many around that study, like how many times have you 679 00:34:38,120 --> 00:34:42,440 seen like a, an underground study come out for a big 680 00:34:42,440 --> 00:34:46,719 existing operation and it'd be like, holy shit, the value it's 681 00:34:46,840 --> 00:34:51,639 flying now. Hardly ever like not like when 682 00:34:51,639 --> 00:34:54,159 WAFF release a underground study, it's not like it 683 00:34:54,360 --> 00:34:57,160 materially moves the price and value. 684 00:34:57,160 --> 00:35:00,720 I just, I just don't think it's gonna be that big of a thing 685 00:35:00,720 --> 00:35:03,440 about, Oh no, once that comes out, it's going to be a $4.00 686 00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:05,200 stock, not $3. It doesn't matter the share 687 00:35:05,200 --> 00:35:08,120 price, you're 100% right, but it does matter in the machinations 688 00:35:08,120 --> 00:35:11,800 of the 11th hour deal value negotiations because you're, 689 00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:14,120 you're arguing with them and, and you bring out your 690 00:35:14,120 --> 00:35:16,120 spreadsheets and you're like, look, look at the MPV here. 691 00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:18,400 And then all of a sudden if you can show a bigger MPV then it 692 00:35:18,400 --> 00:35:21,480 gives you and like it. It's funny, right? 693 00:35:21,520 --> 00:35:23,840 I, I think this is like out in, out in the abyss. 694 00:35:23,840 --> 00:35:27,280 You can you can find this out, but like a deal that is clearly 695 00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:30,280 been a disaster was Igos acquisition of of western areas 696 00:35:30,680 --> 00:35:34,040 at the at the 11th hour. It was actually after a deal was 697 00:35:34,040 --> 00:35:37,800 agreed, there was another uplift provided to kind of get the deal 698 00:35:37,800 --> 00:35:40,200 done because there was some hold out shareholders and there was 699 00:35:40,280 --> 00:35:43,600 some argy bargy on the value of Mount good which was sort of 700 00:35:43,600 --> 00:35:46,000 like a not even a mine. This is just like you're trying 701 00:35:46,000 --> 00:35:50,480 to value this like, you know, potential call option if nickel 702 00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:53,440 price went to the moon and you know, actually added like a, you 703 00:35:53,440 --> 00:35:56,400 know, a pretty meaningful value uplift based off your argument 704 00:35:56,400 --> 00:35:59,400 that that this thing has some value, which is clearly not 705 00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:01,640 going to be mine for like 50 years. 706 00:36:02,080 --> 00:36:05,080 Yeah, with my nickel, nickel's gone. 707 00:36:05,080 --> 00:36:06,800 It's gone from mount good to mount shit. 708 00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:14,240 Oh, Speaking of, Speaking of IG Howard, I'd like Cosmos is just 709 00:36:14,240 --> 00:36:18,520 getting flooded again. Like just, I don't know if 710 00:36:18,520 --> 00:36:22,720 that's yeah, just after all that decline rehab and everything to 711 00:36:22,720 --> 00:36:25,120 get back down there and re establish it in the shaft and 712 00:36:25,120 --> 00:36:27,600 infrastructure and everything. It's just in the water up there 713 00:36:27,600 --> 00:36:29,480 is apparently a bit. Here you go. 714 00:36:29,680 --> 00:36:32,000 So I was just going to corrode it all again. 715 00:36:32,000 --> 00:36:36,640 And like, all that effort and sounds like it's just written 716 00:36:36,640 --> 00:36:39,920 off, properly written off. Like if you're going to let the 717 00:36:39,920 --> 00:36:43,560 water back in, yeah. Probably someone they can call 718 00:36:43,560 --> 00:36:46,160 if they had the cash. Well, Jada, you're a bloody Are 719 00:36:46,160 --> 00:36:49,800 you a Vosan shareholder still? I actually am, yeah. 720 00:36:49,840 --> 00:36:54,520 Yeah, Ding, Ding, Ding. But talking about like a, you as 721 00:36:54,520 --> 00:36:58,680 a shareholder probably should be interested in M&A opportunities 722 00:36:58,680 --> 00:37:00,400 like this. And this wouldn't be a poison 723 00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:06,840 pill situation if Vosan started getting attacked by someone 724 00:37:06,840 --> 00:37:09,320 wanting to buy them. What if they buy WA water 725 00:37:09,320 --> 00:37:12,720 boards? That's like that's that's not 726 00:37:12,720 --> 00:37:15,160 like you're just you. If you're looking to buy someone 727 00:37:15,160 --> 00:37:18,480 crap, it's not them because they are the bloody gurus in 728 00:37:18,480 --> 00:37:21,520 Australia for anything related to water drilling. 729 00:37:21,520 --> 00:37:24,280 That'd be a probably a good. I'll read it from here. 730 00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:27,120 Vice Arm provides end to end water solutions to miners and 731 00:37:27,120 --> 00:37:30,280 infrastructure players. Do you have a water board 732 00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:32,840 drilling expert like James Harrington in your team? 733 00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:37,120 I don't know, perfect. You can buy him. 734 00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:40,120 You can buy him. He's not that. 735 00:37:40,120 --> 00:37:41,040 Good. It's not the same. 736 00:37:41,040 --> 00:37:42,760 He's not the same. He's not the same he. 737 00:37:43,120 --> 00:37:47,760 Is he is for hire like if you need someone to do expert or 738 00:37:47,760 --> 00:37:49,000 boring for? You mate. 739 00:37:49,000 --> 00:37:51,720 Voice art, mate. Tell you what Gerald, I want to 740 00:37:51,720 --> 00:37:54,800 see Gerald James on The Voice Arm website. 741 00:37:55,600 --> 00:37:58,640 Listen, he. Key management personnel. 742 00:37:59,440 --> 00:38:02,000 He shouldn't be surprised with the job he does that the phone's 743 00:38:02,000 --> 00:38:03,560 been buzzing off the. Hook. 744 00:38:04,640 --> 00:38:08,080 You just deliver those sorts of results for companies all across 745 00:38:08,080 --> 00:38:10,080 WA and what do you reckon, Maddie? 746 00:38:10,080 --> 00:38:11,760 I reckon the M&A offers just flying oh. 747 00:38:12,120 --> 00:38:15,360 Mate if you converted James Harrington into a fly rat it'd 748 00:38:15,360 --> 00:38:17,560 be 6000 litres a second. He's that good. 749 00:38:17,880 --> 00:38:21,400 He's unreal though. Whoever's on defence for Gold 750 00:38:21,400 --> 00:38:24,200 Rd., if they want another client they should get in touch with 751 00:38:24,200 --> 00:38:27,760 James I reckon Gerard. James loves M&A, right. 752 00:38:29,120 --> 00:38:32,440 What about what do we got? We're going to go gold sector M 753 00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:33,080 and A, I think. Yeah. 754 00:38:33,080 --> 00:38:36,280 I thought you should just or do you want to do that after thing 755 00:38:36,440 --> 00:38:39,560 just because that might tie into gold sector M and A? 756 00:38:40,160 --> 00:38:41,440 Let's do it. Let's talk Bellevue. 757 00:38:41,440 --> 00:38:47,560 Yeah, so this is oh mate, in the lead up to this and even after 758 00:38:47,680 --> 00:38:54,520 all this, it is still there's longs and like not longs like, 759 00:38:54,520 --> 00:38:57,280 but in terms of thinking it's like on up, they're prime for a 760 00:38:57,280 --> 00:38:59,000 takeover target. Now they're going to be getting 761 00:38:59,000 --> 00:39:04,800 looked at like they're it's still such a a divide, yeah, 762 00:39:04,800 --> 00:39:07,880 between what's happening, but far out. 763 00:39:07,880 --> 00:39:10,120 So I'll, I'll go through, go through what's happened. 764 00:39:10,120 --> 00:39:12,480 What we know buddy, what we can infer. 765 00:39:12,480 --> 00:39:15,360 As I said at the start, Bellevue went into trade and hold on the 766 00:39:15,720 --> 00:39:22,280 26th yesterday, just before the end of trade, and it was, oh, 767 00:39:22,280 --> 00:39:23,880 the bloody wording. I tell you what. 768 00:39:24,160 --> 00:39:26,760 Process of review and verification of gold production 769 00:39:26,760 --> 00:39:30,680 outcomes which may result in downward adjustment to its 770 00:39:30,680 --> 00:39:33,600 production guidance process and review and verification. 771 00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:35,560 I don't know if it's verification, talking about 772 00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:39,320 what's been produced, if that's needs verifying, or I don't 773 00:39:39,360 --> 00:39:41,480 know. Just frigging the. 774 00:39:42,280 --> 00:39:45,360 The wording was was curious. Very curious like. 775 00:39:45,360 --> 00:39:47,000 Ambiguous. Yeah. 776 00:39:47,760 --> 00:39:51,160 And it just that it intends to make an announcement regarding 777 00:39:51,160 --> 00:39:55,440 production guidance for FY25. So it doesn't alluded to any 778 00:39:55,440 --> 00:40:00,040 other future growth guidances or predictions, but whether that 779 00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:04,200 comes or not. So they and this was just after 780 00:40:04,920 --> 00:40:07,800 when we covered at the start of the week when they cancelled the 781 00:40:08,320 --> 00:40:12,280 UBS Roadshow MD had to fly to sight the stock come off from 782 00:40:12,760 --> 00:40:15,480 what was it about The thing is about $1.30 down to the dollar. 783 00:40:16,000 --> 00:40:22,920 Dollar teens and then then this comes out and then also due to 784 00:40:22,920 --> 00:40:27,600 the linkage develop yesterday, as soon as that trading halt 785 00:40:27,600 --> 00:40:31,120 come out developed at a big dollar in, you know, up near the 786 00:40:31,480 --> 00:40:34,840 share price had started lifting again and they're going from, 787 00:40:34,840 --> 00:40:38,960 you know, 33 teens back down to the two 80s on the back of that. 788 00:40:38,960 --> 00:40:42,400 So I'll show you the you can see the graph here. 789 00:40:42,400 --> 00:40:45,360 It was just boom that about just before 3:00. 790 00:40:45,680 --> 00:40:50,080 So and and look, the friggin rumour mill was flying around 791 00:40:50,240 --> 00:40:52,880 yesterday regarding Bellevue and develop. 792 00:40:53,480 --> 00:40:58,080 So, but I'm not not going to share rumours because of who 793 00:40:58,120 --> 00:41:03,640 freaking knows, because but the develop did come out with a 794 00:41:03,640 --> 00:41:07,200 statement today. And you'd assume on the back of 795 00:41:07,200 --> 00:41:09,760 like what happened to their share price due to the them 796 00:41:09,760 --> 00:41:13,360 having the Bellevue contract, which is a very and I suppose 797 00:41:13,360 --> 00:41:17,880 everyone's like just the the magnitude of it in terms of yes, 798 00:41:17,880 --> 00:41:21,400 it's develops only source of revenue at the moment, like the 799 00:41:21,400 --> 00:41:25,800 mining services, but they're just anything around that 800 00:41:25,800 --> 00:41:27,560 contract. Like there's six jumbos there 801 00:41:27,560 --> 00:41:30,560 like a lot of gear on lines for and everything. 802 00:41:30,560 --> 00:41:33,680 So it's obviously a a risk anything with that contract. 803 00:41:33,680 --> 00:41:38,840 But they've come out and essentially said there's well, 804 00:41:38,840 --> 00:41:41,600 the summary is there. They've got the contract until 805 00:41:42,280 --> 00:41:45,240 end of calendar year 25. They've got the option to extend 806 00:41:45,240 --> 00:41:48,360 it for a further 12 months at their sole election. 807 00:41:48,640 --> 00:41:50,000 Bellevue. Bellevue has the option. 808 00:41:50,800 --> 00:41:52,040 Bellevue Gold can extend the contract. 809 00:41:52,040 --> 00:41:52,840 Yeah, yeah. Sorry. 810 00:41:52,840 --> 00:41:55,680 Yeah, yeah. And then it says the 811 00:41:55,680 --> 00:41:58,360 relationship between developing Bellevue is very strong in all 812 00:41:58,360 --> 00:42:02,320 areas. And they've said that mined 813 00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:07,000 physicals for the March quarter are forecasted to be 20% above 814 00:42:07,000 --> 00:42:10,400 the December quarters results. So we're assuming that means 815 00:42:10,400 --> 00:42:14,280 development and production and Bellevue Gold is up to date with 816 00:42:14,280 --> 00:42:17,200 all payment terms associated with the mining contracts. 817 00:42:17,200 --> 00:42:19,280 So that was putting a pin in the rumour mill. 818 00:42:19,360 --> 00:42:21,680 Pretty much every rumour mill is about those things. 819 00:42:22,600 --> 00:42:27,200 So yeah, so I'll go go through like I'll fucking tell you what, 820 00:42:27,200 --> 00:42:31,400 I've just beat me head against this to be honest, because when 821 00:42:31,400 --> 00:42:34,840 you look at the yes, there was that reserve downgrade 822 00:42:34,840 --> 00:42:37,840 previously. Like it was the reserve was 6.1 823 00:42:37,840 --> 00:42:42,600 grams a ton for the underground. Like there's a very small open 824 00:42:42,600 --> 00:42:48,880 pit portion, but 6.1 grams then got downgraded to 5g per ton 825 00:42:48,880 --> 00:42:51,560 when they sort of changed the numbers a bit. 826 00:42:51,560 --> 00:42:54,920 So I thought think of 5g and then and when I say reserve, 827 00:42:54,960 --> 00:42:58,520 it's don't just look at the stopping grade. 828 00:42:58,520 --> 00:43:01,080 Like you know how they say like you when you mine more 829 00:43:01,080 --> 00:43:07,720 development or you obviously down drop the mind grade, but 830 00:43:07,720 --> 00:43:11,920 the the reserve is calculated taking into account all the 831 00:43:11,920 --> 00:43:15,240 development ore as well. So it's not just a dilution on 832 00:43:15,240 --> 00:43:17,560 the ore body and everything. It takes into account the fact 833 00:43:17,560 --> 00:43:21,560 that all these drives go in and go on the wrong pad and the 834 00:43:21,560 --> 00:43:24,080 start comes then. So that's all taken into account 835 00:43:24,080 --> 00:43:26,680 in the reserve grade. Yes, If you don't have the 836 00:43:26,680 --> 00:43:31,400 correct ratio of development and production going, you might be 837 00:43:31,400 --> 00:43:35,080 skewed on in quarters because that means your grade is 838 00:43:35,920 --> 00:43:37,640 technically lower than the reserve grade because you're 839 00:43:37,640 --> 00:43:40,360 taking more development or ahead of time with the staffing. 840 00:43:40,360 --> 00:43:43,680 But it should, it should balance out that you should be hitting 841 00:43:43,680 --> 00:43:45,880 your close to your reserve grade. 842 00:43:46,360 --> 00:43:51,320 No, but it depends on depends on where it's distributed as well. 843 00:43:51,320 --> 00:43:54,080 Like it could be like you could have a very high reserve grade, 844 00:43:54,080 --> 00:43:57,200 but it's concentrated in an area that you're not mining for two 845 00:43:57,200 --> 00:44:00,000 years. But it's a, it's sort of the the 846 00:44:00,000 --> 00:44:03,120 baseline that probably everyone's looking at to see if 847 00:44:03,120 --> 00:44:05,760 the mine is performing based on the reserve grade. 848 00:44:05,960 --> 00:44:08,080 So are you looking at, are you looking at the reserve here? 849 00:44:08,080 --> 00:44:12,400 Because because Bellevue's announcement is talking about 850 00:44:12,400 --> 00:44:16,040 verification of production and then and then develop says that 851 00:44:16,040 --> 00:44:19,640 they they hit they hit kind of 20% more target. 852 00:44:19,720 --> 00:44:22,480 So you're thinking, well, if if it's not, if it's not like 853 00:44:22,560 --> 00:44:26,000 development meters and it's a a downgrade than it is a could be 854 00:44:26,000 --> 00:44:29,240 a reserve issue. Yeah, OK, well and it's so 855 00:44:29,240 --> 00:44:30,960 they've said they've said they've got the physicals 856 00:44:30,960 --> 00:44:32,000 they're 20% above. OK. 857 00:44:32,000 --> 00:44:37,080 So that means I can predict that production tons and development 858 00:44:37,560 --> 00:44:42,320 tons are above what they got last quarters, which means they 859 00:44:42,320 --> 00:44:47,840 should be getting enough dirt on the ROM pad for them to process. 860 00:44:48,240 --> 00:44:51,880 And but now they're coming out with a production downgrade, 861 00:44:51,880 --> 00:44:54,760 which is answers. So the only thing that can be 862 00:44:54,760 --> 00:44:58,720 lower than anticipated is the grade and you, you just look 863 00:44:59,640 --> 00:45:04,800 March and June 2024 like that. Mine grade was 6g and 7 grams. 864 00:45:04,800 --> 00:45:06,640 So that was that was above reserve grade. 865 00:45:07,680 --> 00:45:11,880 September 4 1/2 went below December then went down to 3.7. 866 00:45:12,240 --> 00:45:15,960 They did say that they're going through outer edges of the ore 867 00:45:15,960 --> 00:45:20,480 body, yada yada. But you can just predict, OK, it 868 00:45:20,480 --> 00:45:24,280 appears the, you predict the grade isn't going to be a 869 00:45:24,280 --> 00:45:27,080 significant improvement on the December quarter if they're 870 00:45:27,720 --> 00:45:31,560 whether this is just related to Q4, not Q3. 871 00:45:31,560 --> 00:45:34,120 But they, they did say it was back weighted. 872 00:45:34,120 --> 00:45:38,800 But it, it just appears at the moment that the reserve grade 873 00:45:38,800 --> 00:45:46,040 isn't coming to the forefront. So, and, and you can't say that 874 00:45:46,760 --> 00:45:48,880 there's 2 two ways that that could happen. 875 00:45:49,040 --> 00:45:54,360 Either the, the geological modelling is incorrect or what's 876 00:45:54,360 --> 00:45:58,720 coming out is not correct. And you just look at how much 877 00:45:58,720 --> 00:46:01,640 infill drilling they've done, like, and the hits of it, like 878 00:46:01,640 --> 00:46:03,560 they're just, you know, I'll bring these up just like 879 00:46:03,560 --> 00:46:08,800 sensational, it's always been a stand out of like quality of 880 00:46:08,800 --> 00:46:10,600 intercepts. Like just, you're looking at 881 00:46:10,600 --> 00:46:15,320 like 1.6 meters at 244g per ton, like 6.2 or 20.8. 882 00:46:15,320 --> 00:46:19,000 Like, yeah, the there's a lot of infill drill and the gold is 883 00:46:19,000 --> 00:46:24,440 there, but if you look put the underground mining hat back on 884 00:46:24,520 --> 00:46:27,640 and of of running out of years, I can do this because I'm 885 00:46:27,640 --> 00:46:31,280 starting to forget all of it. But if you just look at the 886 00:46:31,280 --> 00:46:37,560 photos they put up of this, that appears to be the ore body in 887 00:46:37,560 --> 00:46:41,920 between the pink lines and it appears to be vertical, but it's 888 00:46:42,320 --> 00:46:46,320 on the right hand side of that development drive. 889 00:46:46,680 --> 00:46:52,040 So to effectively mine that with the and stay within the dilution 890 00:46:52,040 --> 00:46:56,240 parameters and the recovery of that gold, that a vertical or 891 00:46:56,840 --> 00:46:59,480 vine needs to be in the dead centre of the drive. 892 00:47:00,280 --> 00:47:02,320 And, and look at chops and changes all the time. 893 00:47:02,320 --> 00:47:04,440 You can't get it perfect all the time. 894 00:47:06,160 --> 00:47:09,880 And you do your best to then turn the drive back onto the 895 00:47:09,920 --> 00:47:11,840 ore. But then you look at look at the 896 00:47:11,840 --> 00:47:15,080 next one, same. It looks pretty, pretty 897 00:47:15,080 --> 00:47:16,600 vertical. Same thing. 898 00:47:16,600 --> 00:47:18,680 It's sort of it's in the right hand side of the drive. 899 00:47:18,680 --> 00:47:23,560 So to actually mine that, like you, the only way to mine that, 900 00:47:23,560 --> 00:47:26,080 like the first step you do is stop. 901 00:47:26,520 --> 00:47:29,600 You have to strip out the right hand wall, get the oil back into 902 00:47:29,600 --> 00:47:33,240 the middle and then continue on. Then you've got the room for the 903 00:47:33,600 --> 00:47:35,640 long oil drill to fit the boom in. 904 00:47:36,120 --> 00:47:39,280 Drill a parallel hold of that because at the moment you can't, 905 00:47:39,280 --> 00:47:41,840 you can't drill a parallel hole to that all body on the right 906 00:47:41,840 --> 00:47:44,480 hand wall because you can't drill a vertical hole up the 907 00:47:44,480 --> 00:47:46,400 side of a wall. It just cannot happen. 908 00:47:47,360 --> 00:47:51,440 And the way to recover it is like, yeah, there's a potential 909 00:47:51,840 --> 00:47:55,080 you sort of fan it out to compensate for it. 910 00:47:55,080 --> 00:47:57,960 But there's a risk that you leave some gold in the ground 911 00:47:58,360 --> 00:48:01,960 and the fan out will bring in more dilution just because you 912 00:48:03,520 --> 00:48:07,360 and you leave a lip on the on the on the where you got all the 913 00:48:07,360 --> 00:48:09,920 waste on the left. Like if you sort of mine that 914 00:48:09,920 --> 00:48:13,560 you leave a lip there and then that just has it sometimes 915 00:48:13,560 --> 00:48:17,760 tendency to fall in and create more dilution and just sort of 916 00:48:17,760 --> 00:48:20,560 mines to the shoulders, usually at the bottom. 917 00:48:20,560 --> 00:48:23,280 But this is hard ground. So maybe, maybe not. 918 00:48:23,680 --> 00:48:27,320 But I guess the the interesting thing I found on that is if you 919 00:48:27,320 --> 00:48:34,360 see that white cross on the middle of this Bellevue 1000, 920 00:48:34,880 --> 00:48:39,360 there's a white cross that says 1.5 down 2.5, right? 921 00:48:40,000 --> 00:48:45,200 That is a laser cross. So that means that that I'm 922 00:48:46,840 --> 00:48:51,560 assuming that that means that drive is on laser survey 923 00:48:51,560 --> 00:48:53,560 control. So you put the laser in you can 924 00:48:53,560 --> 00:48:58,280 see it says D 15.5 S. The laser is 15.5 to the face 925 00:48:58,280 --> 00:49:02,160 and you shut you get says based on where you are and where the 926 00:49:02,160 --> 00:49:04,520 next cuts going. This is the direction you got. 927 00:49:04,960 --> 00:49:07,880 But this isn't an all drive. I've never worked in a narrow 928 00:49:07,880 --> 00:49:10,920 van gold mine that has all drives on survey control. 929 00:49:11,120 --> 00:49:15,920 It's always the process is yeah, mesh the heading you scale the 930 00:49:15,920 --> 00:49:17,760 face, bogger comes in cleans it up. 931 00:49:17,760 --> 00:49:22,520 J OS go down there. They map the face and say give 932 00:49:22,520 --> 00:49:27,600 you a skunk line, like say right, 1m right or straight half 933 00:49:27,600 --> 00:49:29,960 a meter right, yada, yada. And just to know that you're 934 00:49:29,960 --> 00:49:34,360 staying on the ore body, it just, it looks like they're on 935 00:49:34,400 --> 00:49:38,320 survey control and you're following the laser, but you're 936 00:49:38,320 --> 00:49:40,440 not. The ore can like you can have 937 00:49:40,440 --> 00:49:43,520 minor faults that shifted a meter within a cut. 938 00:49:43,920 --> 00:49:46,760 And if you keep following that survey line, the ore is just not 939 00:49:46,760 --> 00:49:48,360 in the middle. And then there's a risk that 940 00:49:48,360 --> 00:49:51,000 when you mine it and you're not stripping out to get it back in 941 00:49:51,000 --> 00:49:55,440 the middle, there could be gold being left there And you that, 942 00:49:55,440 --> 00:49:58,120 that, that's the only thing I can think of of why this grade 943 00:49:58,120 --> 00:50:02,200 isn't performing because everyone's, oh, the grade isn't 944 00:50:02,200 --> 00:50:03,520 there. And I'm like, well, based on the 945 00:50:03,520 --> 00:50:07,320 drilling like, and the sign off and the GI modelling like the, 946 00:50:08,520 --> 00:50:11,160 you assume the gold's there. Just think there's a risk that 947 00:50:11,160 --> 00:50:13,040 it's not being mined. Right. 948 00:50:13,240 --> 00:50:17,080 That'd be a better, that'd be a better downgrade if it was kind 949 00:50:17,080 --> 00:50:18,000 of reserve issue. You know what I mean? 950 00:50:18,000 --> 00:50:20,720 That's like that's like a short term issue rather than a long 951 00:50:20,720 --> 00:50:23,080 term issue, right? Yeah, I don't think it's Yeah, 952 00:50:23,080 --> 00:50:27,200 yeah, it's like that's I'm happy to be corrected. 953 00:50:27,200 --> 00:50:31,040 But yeah, why would why would a, why would a mine choose the 954 00:50:31,040 --> 00:50:33,880 survey control instead of the the Geo process? 955 00:50:33,880 --> 00:50:34,720 Faster. Faster. 956 00:50:35,280 --> 00:50:35,880 OK. Yeah. 957 00:50:35,920 --> 00:50:39,240 So it could just be, yeah. Yeah so the, the, the issue with 958 00:50:39,240 --> 00:50:43,080 having geological control is like cycling, especially when 959 00:50:43,080 --> 00:50:47,120 you've got 6 jumbos you got if you've got multiple headings on 960 00:50:47,120 --> 00:50:51,400 Geo control, you've got only a fixed amount of geologists going 961 00:50:51,400 --> 00:50:54,080 underground and there could be two headings ready right at the 962 00:50:54,080 --> 00:50:58,040 same time and two jumbos ready to go into them individually. 963 00:50:58,040 --> 00:51:02,160 But the GI can only go to 1. So they've got to go and map it 964 00:51:02,160 --> 00:51:07,080 could take, you know, depends 1020 minutes could be more. 965 00:51:07,080 --> 00:51:10,240 They've got to wash it down, paint it up, get the samples, 966 00:51:10,520 --> 00:51:13,280 then they've got to pack up, drive to the next one and 967 00:51:13,920 --> 00:51:16,160 potentially one Jumbo has to wait. 968 00:51:16,480 --> 00:51:21,000 And when you're development constrained, like it appears, as 969 00:51:21,000 --> 00:51:23,920 I said, you've got 6 jumbos that are mine, that's 1,000,000 tonne 970 00:51:23,920 --> 00:51:26,400 more and that's a lot of development capacity. 971 00:51:26,400 --> 00:51:30,240 So it's a development constrained mine putting it on 972 00:51:30,240 --> 00:51:34,720 lasers, just like Bobby goes in, cleans it up as soon as he walks 973 00:51:34,720 --> 00:51:38,000 out, Chucky laser in markup and you're into it. 974 00:51:38,440 --> 00:51:40,160 So there's no, there's no hold UPS. 975 00:51:40,160 --> 00:51:44,680 It's best for development. But yeah, these are the I'll 976 00:51:44,680 --> 00:51:48,640 show you this picture like the next one, like you can see arm 977 00:51:48,640 --> 00:51:51,840 and 1176. So it's lying over and it's in 978 00:51:51,840 --> 00:51:53,400 the shoulder. That's exactly where it should 979 00:51:53,400 --> 00:51:56,680 be because that's how you get the angle to drill that. 980 00:51:57,560 --> 00:51:59,400 That's the that's where it should be. 981 00:51:59,400 --> 00:52:02,440 Same as this next one here. You can see the survey dot that 982 00:52:02,440 --> 00:52:06,640 that one's the real thick Dakin one that's lying over and it 983 00:52:06,640 --> 00:52:08,720 goes into the shoulder. But yeah, when it's vertical, it 984 00:52:08,720 --> 00:52:11,200 needs to be in the middle. So just gone off the photos they 985 00:52:11,200 --> 00:52:14,520 put up. That's my yeah. 986 00:52:14,520 --> 00:52:15,880 Excellent insight, Maddie. That's. 987 00:52:16,040 --> 00:52:18,000 That's super interesting. That's a theory, whether it's 988 00:52:18,040 --> 00:52:19,600 bloody accurate or not true or not. 989 00:52:19,600 --> 00:52:21,840 But yeah, just going off what I've seen, yeah. 990 00:52:22,080 --> 00:52:24,000 Super interesting. I think that's a, that's an 991 00:52:24,000 --> 00:52:27,440 awesome sort of segue to finish up on, on valuations across and 992 00:52:27,440 --> 00:52:31,560 combining what we've spoken about today, because on that 993 00:52:31,560 --> 00:52:36,200 one, there's, you know, there's not too many gold miners that 994 00:52:36,200 --> 00:52:39,640 have had the, the last year share price wise that Bellevue 995 00:52:39,640 --> 00:52:42,600 have had, right. So that leaves them in a 996 00:52:42,600 --> 00:52:44,600 situation after we see this news come out. 997 00:52:44,600 --> 00:52:47,520 And if it is what you've said, Maddie, it does to me appear 998 00:52:47,520 --> 00:52:52,720 like a fixable thing whether whether people have different 999 00:52:52,720 --> 00:52:54,200 views on, on who kind of fixes it. 1000 00:52:54,200 --> 00:52:56,240 I'm sure they kind of will out there in the market. 1001 00:52:56,240 --> 00:52:59,000 I'll I'll caveat with like that this could be one. 1002 00:52:59,480 --> 00:53:02,520 I got no proof that they didn't strip out the walls on those 1003 00:53:02,520 --> 00:53:06,080 pictures there and get it to the right point and, and fix it and, 1004 00:53:06,120 --> 00:53:10,400 and it could be just one possible thing among many things 1005 00:53:10,400 --> 00:53:12,440 that has contributed to this. So it's. 1006 00:53:12,960 --> 00:53:16,480 But for sure, let's just say it was a tutorial, not a 1007 00:53:17,680 --> 00:53:23,040 accusation. 100% I still, I still think you know it Le it 1008 00:53:23,040 --> 00:53:25,440 leaves other management teams out there in the in the market 1009 00:53:25,440 --> 00:53:28,600 potentially thinking that, hey, maybe we can do this better, 1010 00:53:28,600 --> 00:53:30,800 right? And if you look at the, the 1011 00:53:30,800 --> 00:53:35,000 universe of Aussie midcap miners and how they're kind of traded 1012 00:53:35,000 --> 00:53:39,280 and the, the, you know, the cash flow that they should generate 1013 00:53:39,280 --> 00:53:42,840 over the foreseeable future, Bellevue might might screen an 1014 00:53:42,840 --> 00:53:44,920 opportunity versus the rest of them. 1015 00:53:45,160 --> 00:53:46,400 So. Yeah. 1016 00:53:46,400 --> 00:53:49,960 Well, I think what if we did the numbers before I think you know 1017 00:53:50,000 --> 00:53:54,040 say they get a below buck and people start thinking what $1.50 1018 00:53:54,040 --> 00:53:57,680 or should do a takeover target. I think once you what do we say? 1019 00:53:57,680 --> 00:54:00,280 I think once I clear the hedge, clear the hedge, book the debt 1020 00:54:00,400 --> 00:54:04,920 plus buying 1/2 bill, it's about a $2 billion deal to do it, but 1021 00:54:04,920 --> 00:54:07,680 it's. That's less than yeah, that's 1022 00:54:07,680 --> 00:54:11,640 less than yeah, 5050 odd percent of grey air. 1023 00:54:11,680 --> 00:54:16,160 And less than Spartan and this all this development is there 1024 00:54:16,560 --> 00:54:18,880 like you're at the ore you're producing. 1025 00:54:18,880 --> 00:54:23,480 You might just need 3 like it might be a quarter or two of 1026 00:54:23,480 --> 00:54:27,000 like maybe getting development ahead or bitter and a bit of 1027 00:54:27,000 --> 00:54:29,560 capital to go to new areas. But like you're there, the 1028 00:54:29,560 --> 00:54:32,600 infrastructure is there. It's bloody good infrastructure. 1029 00:54:32,600 --> 00:54:37,360 I mean, so it's been yeah, they reckon it's a good side in terms 1030 00:54:37,360 --> 00:54:42,240 of like the mill and like it's brand new, like it's it's and 1031 00:54:42,240 --> 00:54:46,880 that's where the other side of the arguments come from, from 1032 00:54:46,880 --> 00:54:50,520 people like they're just they're they're a target as well because 1033 00:54:50,520 --> 00:54:55,560 it's a walk up start to. Potentially like walk up start 1034 00:54:55,560 --> 00:54:58,840 to what, 150 to 200,000 oz, they'll come out of halt, 1035 00:54:58,840 --> 00:55:02,440 they'll sell off on a downgrade and then they'll be a buyer 1036 00:55:02,440 --> 00:55:05,680 buying the buying the dip who thinks that that they're a 1037 00:55:05,760 --> 00:55:07,560 takeover target. Now, yeah, I wonder, like, do 1038 00:55:07,560 --> 00:55:12,960 you think it's a function of? I think it's pretty tightly held 1039 00:55:13,680 --> 00:55:17,720 register, like it's like there's no, there hasn't been any 1040 00:55:17,720 --> 00:55:22,280 evidence of a strategic that's come on unless they're sub five 1041 00:55:22,280 --> 00:55:24,200 at the moment. But you, you would God, you'd 1042 00:55:24,200 --> 00:55:28,640 think in the 90s that someone would be looking at a 20% stake 1043 00:55:28,880 --> 00:55:30,440 somehow. Potentially. 1044 00:55:30,440 --> 00:55:33,560 I mean, yeah, because it's because if it's a short term 1045 00:55:33,560 --> 00:55:38,000 thing and you'd like, it's a better capitalized miner with 1046 00:55:38,000 --> 00:55:43,120 diversified cash flows who can reset expectations, reset, you 1047 00:55:43,120 --> 00:55:45,120 know, guidance, clear the hedge book, all those short term 1048 00:55:45,120 --> 00:55:49,000 pressures, which which can, you know, be be detrimental. 1049 00:55:50,360 --> 00:55:53,360 Like there's upside there. It's hard to outbid someone with 1050 00:55:53,360 --> 00:55:55,080 synergies. And so it's like you look in the 1051 00:55:55,080 --> 00:55:56,840 region who's got big synergies here. 1052 00:55:57,240 --> 00:55:59,200 And I know it's weird to say synergies because this thing has 1053 00:55:59,200 --> 00:56:04,240 its own mill, but if you're sending 6G dirt down the road to 1054 00:56:04,800 --> 00:56:09,080 Agnew or to or to or to Carousel Dam, I mean, those are like. 1055 00:56:09,080 --> 00:56:11,000 Thunderbox. Sorry, sorry, Thunderbox. 1056 00:56:11,240 --> 00:56:15,000 It's like a, you know, 6,000,000 ton random kind of operation. 1057 00:56:15,000 --> 00:56:17,440 Much lower processing costs. You don't even need that meal. 1058 00:56:17,920 --> 00:56:20,360 I think so. And you can rot it down straight 1059 00:56:20,360 --> 00:56:21,040 away. Yeah. 1060 00:56:21,120 --> 00:56:23,480 And this would be an if someone got like interested, this would 1061 00:56:23,480 --> 00:56:26,760 be like an opportunistic kind of things like having a cash offer. 1062 00:56:26,800 --> 00:56:30,480 Not many no one really has much cash to like the mid tiers are 1063 00:56:30,480 --> 00:56:33,360 all hungry and stuff, but and they're making good cash but but 1064 00:56:33,360 --> 00:56:37,040 like this is still a big ticket to pick up unless you're a big 1065 00:56:37,040 --> 00:56:39,000 player. Northern Star explicitly can't 1066 00:56:39,000 --> 00:56:43,520 do anything right now because the the materiality threshold in 1067 00:56:43,520 --> 00:56:45,760 the scheme implementation date. I think it's like I can't do any 1068 00:56:45,960 --> 00:56:48,040 deals of up to a billion dollars or something like that. 1069 00:56:49,240 --> 00:56:50,360 I'll be on beyond a billion dollars. 1070 00:56:50,360 --> 00:56:53,840 And then, yeah, Gold Fields is clearly preoccupied with Gold 1071 00:56:53,840 --> 00:56:56,840 Road right now. So yeah, maybe they maybe they 1072 00:56:56,840 --> 00:56:58,800 detour. Yeah, yeah. 1073 00:56:58,800 --> 00:57:02,840 And like, look, this you could, you could track this dirt pretty 1074 00:57:02,840 --> 00:57:04,920 far. Like remember they toll traded 1075 00:57:04,920 --> 00:57:08,920 it at Leonora. But I don't see like Genesis 1076 00:57:08,920 --> 00:57:12,880 being thrown around as well. Just I think Raul's done his 1077 00:57:12,880 --> 00:57:16,160 counter cyclical investing. I don't can't seem taking a 1078 00:57:16,160 --> 00:57:18,800 swing at something like this at the top of the cycle unless it 1079 00:57:18,800 --> 00:57:22,320 got pretty a lot cheaper. Never say I never got. 1080 00:57:22,320 --> 00:57:24,320 I was fucking wrong about everything this week. 1081 00:57:24,320 --> 00:57:28,360 I said goldfield wouldn't do anything, but it's like, but 1082 00:57:28,360 --> 00:57:32,000 this this will be a mine that will go for a long time like 1083 00:57:32,000 --> 00:57:37,000 this is, but it it appears that it's just I'll I'll be very 1084 00:57:37,000 --> 00:57:41,720 interested to see if there's two 250,000 oz production growth 1085 00:57:41,720 --> 00:57:44,760 target that they doubled down on on the back of guidance 1086 00:57:44,760 --> 00:57:47,680 downgrades. I think people just want to see 1087 00:57:47,680 --> 00:57:53,840 that pulled like just just commit to a 200,000 oz operation 1088 00:57:53,840 --> 00:57:58,000 at 2 1/2 thousand all in sustaining or something and that 1089 00:57:58,000 --> 00:58:01,280 will print will print cash in the future and just a bit more 1090 00:58:01,280 --> 00:58:04,520 realistic on the on the growth. I think it's just once it just 1091 00:58:04,520 --> 00:58:06,760 needs to be tidied up. But yeah, but obviously pulling 1092 00:58:06,760 --> 00:58:10,440 that target will be get the stock hammered a bit. 1093 00:58:10,440 --> 00:58:14,240 But yeah, we'll wait and wait and see for I think it's it says 1094 00:58:14,240 --> 00:58:17,920 it's coming out a whole Friday. I've heard Monday. 1095 00:58:19,360 --> 00:58:22,720 I think if it's Monday, not Friday, there's probably going 1096 00:58:22,720 --> 00:58:25,080 to be a bit more substance, a bit more content in the 1097 00:58:25,080 --> 00:58:29,640 announcement, possibly needing a bit extra time, but. 1098 00:58:30,280 --> 00:58:33,160 We'll say that I think that's a that's a good spot to leave it. 1099 00:58:33,360 --> 00:58:38,640 A lot of gold chat. Buddy, we're a very pro cyclical 1100 00:58:38,640 --> 00:58:45,520 podcast at the moment. We are reflective of the the 1101 00:58:45,560 --> 00:58:49,120 interest in the market. People want to hear about gold 1102 00:58:49,120 --> 00:58:52,680 at the moment. Yes, brought up there'll be shit 1103 00:58:52,680 --> 00:58:56,360 loads of gold underground operators. 1104 00:58:56,360 --> 00:58:58,800 Probably everything will be about gold there. 100 bucks off. 1105 00:58:58,800 --> 00:59:01,280 Bloody like they're those tickets flying out the door 1106 00:59:01,880 --> 00:59:04,600 mate. GRX now I'll do them around the 1107 00:59:04,600 --> 00:59:07,560 other way next time. Global resources innovation Expo 1108 00:59:07,760 --> 00:59:10,840 deals for cheap tickets there on in the show notes as well. 1109 00:59:10,840 --> 00:59:14,280 Breezy in my now what do we got Partners, Mineral mining 1110 00:59:14,280 --> 00:59:17,200 services, Grounded, Samba, ground sport, CRE insurance, 1111 00:59:17,200 --> 00:59:21,880 catering, WA water balls, Sweep, Quattro and Cross boundary 1112 00:59:21,880 --> 00:59:23,920 energy. Thank you very. 1113 00:59:24,880 --> 00:59:27,480 Much information contained in this episode of Money of Mine is 1114 00:59:27,480 --> 00:59:29,640 of general nature only and does not take into account the 1115 00:59:29,640 --> 00:59:33,280 objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular 1116 00:59:33,280 --> 00:59:35,320 person. Before making any investment 1117 00:59:35,320 --> 00:59:38,360 decision, you should consult with your financial advisor and 1118 00:59:38,360 --> 00:59:41,520 consider how appropriate the advice is to your objectives, 1119 00:59:41,720 --> 00:59:43,720 financial situation and needs.