1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,480 Right, there's so much going on in in the market today. 2 00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:05,360 We, we sat down, we started writing out our show notes to 3 00:00:05,560 --> 00:00:07,640 the usual weekly wrap style of episode. 4 00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:12,000 And I got AI got a message on WhatsApp from our good friend 5 00:00:12,000 --> 00:00:14,360 Ferg, Ferg Cullen, trader Ferg, as he might be known. 6 00:00:14,880 --> 00:00:18,400 And I, I turned to you and I was like, should we just call Ferg 7 00:00:18,400 --> 00:00:20,480 and see if he wants to join us for and we'll just have a chin 8 00:00:20,480 --> 00:00:22,400 wag about a whole range of stuff. 9 00:00:22,560 --> 00:00:24,080 And he said, yeah, let's do it. Called Ferg. 10 00:00:24,160 --> 00:00:27,240 He said, Yep, 3 hours later, this is what's happening where 11 00:00:27,360 --> 00:00:29,760 we, we had brought Fergie in and money miners. 12 00:00:29,760 --> 00:00:31,280 I hope you enjoy it. It's not the usual week. 13 00:00:31,440 --> 00:00:34,120 We wrapped a bit more broad, but I just just, it was kind of the 14 00:00:34,120 --> 00:00:36,800 conversation that I felt like we all needed to, to have an ear 15 00:00:36,800 --> 00:00:39,880 out And I tried to figure he's always so thoughtful about 16 00:00:39,960 --> 00:00:42,080 things. He says things simply and I, I'm 17 00:00:42,080 --> 00:00:43,560 drawn to him. Let's jump to it. 18 00:00:47,240 --> 00:00:50,040 I'm so I was so glad to get your message this, this morning 19 00:00:51,520 --> 00:00:55,320 because, yeah, I mean, I mean, I mean, like the, the, the China 20 00:00:55,320 --> 00:00:57,760 R&B thing. I almost feel like, you know, 21 00:00:57,760 --> 00:00:59,960 speak speaking into a, an empty room. 22 00:00:59,960 --> 00:01:02,600 But everyone acknowledges that this is a an important thing, 23 00:01:02,600 --> 00:01:05,040 important thing to talk about, but everyone's too scared to 24 00:01:05,040 --> 00:01:08,480 actually say it themselves. But you, you might, you're 25 00:01:08,480 --> 00:01:11,000 unrestrained. You don't work for anyone. 26 00:01:11,880 --> 00:01:13,840 You're happy to, you're happy to put your controversial opinions 27 00:01:13,840 --> 00:01:16,320 out there into the abuse as well, which which is why I was 28 00:01:16,320 --> 00:01:19,960 excited to get your message. But I technically work for a 29 00:01:19,960 --> 00:01:21,640 little guy downstairs and nappies. 30 00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:24,760 And my wife, she's got pretty, pretty high expectations. 31 00:01:27,160 --> 00:01:28,800 Yeah. What were you thinking like? 32 00:01:28,800 --> 00:01:31,440 What were you thinking? Like just just reading the news 33 00:01:31,440 --> 00:01:35,760 of the last few days mate? Oh, I don't know, I'm like, so 34 00:01:37,080 --> 00:01:41,040 I'm so like glad to see some stuff start to work and then I'm 35 00:01:41,040 --> 00:01:46,480 so confused when I see other stuff fly like it's has this 36 00:01:46,480 --> 00:01:48,480 like for craziness. Like I've obviously been a 37 00:01:48,520 --> 00:01:51,840 uranium bull for a while and I was just looking at URA. 38 00:01:52,200 --> 00:01:54,360 Did you know nearly 1/4 of that entire index. 39 00:01:54,360 --> 00:01:59,960 This is just the what is it? What's that new startup is that? 40 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:04,800 Oclo. OCLO is 20% of the entire ETF. 41 00:02:04,920 --> 00:02:08,160 So that thing is a $21 billion market cap US. 42 00:02:08,160 --> 00:02:10,680 It's marching. It's like it's, it's marching 43 00:02:10,680 --> 00:02:12,960 towards Kamiko. Like, yeah, that's, yeah, 44 00:02:13,040 --> 00:02:16,520 remarkable. Yes, so you've got this like the 45 00:02:16,800 --> 00:02:20,080 then you can Oh God, you can. I get hate every time I mention 46 00:02:20,080 --> 00:02:24,560 it, but you've got like USUEC and like Energy Fuels and like, 47 00:02:24,600 --> 00:02:27,440 it's fine if someone's playing that game, but like energy 48 00:02:27,440 --> 00:02:31,800 Fuels, like just what? Just over a hundred 100,000 lbs. 49 00:02:32,120 --> 00:02:34,080 It's trading nearly 8 billion market cap. 50 00:02:36,200 --> 00:02:39,600 We're in such a weird time where there's this like, and then and 51 00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:42,240 then I get like, yeah, there's the whole like everyone's lined 52 00:02:42,240 --> 00:02:44,280 up for the next MP materials deal. 53 00:02:44,280 --> 00:02:48,280 And yeah, I'm just like happy I'm making money. 54 00:02:48,280 --> 00:02:52,120 But I'm so confused and so like kind of scatty with so, so much 55 00:02:52,120 --> 00:02:55,200 of the stuff I'm saying ripping. I'm like God, like this could 56 00:02:55,400 --> 00:02:57,440 all. There's a whole lot of bugs 57 00:02:57,440 --> 00:03:00,400 heading towards like a big, I guess you call like inflationary 58 00:03:00,400 --> 00:03:01,680 windshield. Like there's a whole lot of 59 00:03:01,680 --> 00:03:04,840 stuff that doesn't make sense. The, the FOMO feeling around 60 00:03:04,840 --> 00:03:05,880 this market is really interesting. 61 00:03:05,880 --> 00:03:08,600 I'm not sure about you guys, but it it's not actually not 62 00:03:08,600 --> 00:03:12,520 terrible, terribly bad inside of me because I, I do feel like 63 00:03:12,520 --> 00:03:14,880 I've missed out on some stuff, but all the other crap that I'm 64 00:03:14,880 --> 00:03:17,720 holding is, is kind of doing well as well. 65 00:03:17,720 --> 00:03:20,520 So it, you know, it sort of ways off and you come out of that 66 00:03:20,520 --> 00:03:23,400 like, oh, you know, the, you know, those things like perhaps 67 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:26,840 in the tin world going really well, a whole bunch of names 68 00:03:26,840 --> 00:03:28,720 there. And you know, I don't, I don't 69 00:03:28,720 --> 00:03:32,480 hold any of them at the moment and I'm not actually too gutted 70 00:03:32,480 --> 00:03:35,880 about it because all this other stuff like all the gold names 71 00:03:35,880 --> 00:03:39,000 are just ripping tremendously. Are you guys feeling the sort of 72 00:03:39,000 --> 00:03:43,640 same? Yeah, I feel, I feel, I feel 73 00:03:44,880 --> 00:03:46,840 you, you know, you know, that that bull market thing that 74 00:03:46,840 --> 00:03:50,560 happens, it's like the more, the more prices go up, the more 75 00:03:50,560 --> 00:03:52,760 conviction you have when you should have the other way around 76 00:03:52,760 --> 00:03:55,600 like you should be. Yeah, yeah, I, I, I definitely 77 00:03:55,600 --> 00:03:57,240 am noticing that in myself at the moment. 78 00:03:57,560 --> 00:03:59,680 So a tricky a tricky 1 to contend with. 79 00:04:00,640 --> 00:04:03,560 Yeah, there's My Portfolio. Like I kind of joke like exactly 80 00:04:03,560 --> 00:04:05,840 what you just said, JD. Like I've I've had a whole lot 81 00:04:05,840 --> 00:04:08,960 of kind of like mistakes that I've just like hidden away in 82 00:04:08,960 --> 00:04:12,480 the corner of the portfolio. And now I've like actually had 83 00:04:12,760 --> 00:04:15,640 the sort of the RIP to go and clean up a lot of the weeds that 84 00:04:15,640 --> 00:04:18,440 I'm like embarrassed, like looking at some of these junior 85 00:04:18,440 --> 00:04:20,399 miners that I've thrown a few K on. 86 00:04:20,399 --> 00:04:26,160 And now I can kind of make for the exit with sort of break even 87 00:04:26,160 --> 00:04:29,760 after watching just a horrific draw down the last two years. 88 00:04:30,240 --> 00:04:34,640 Whereas other stuff I'm like, yeah, really, really comfortable 89 00:04:34,640 --> 00:04:39,040 just having super heavy positions and like like actual 90 00:04:39,040 --> 00:04:43,840 physical commodities, like I'm having like a like, I think 91 00:04:43,840 --> 00:04:46,960 since I last came on with you boys, like I went really heavy, 92 00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:48,720 like platinum and rhodium. Yeah. 93 00:04:49,080 --> 00:04:52,200 And that just keeps like taking up more and more crowd and 94 00:04:52,200 --> 00:04:56,880 everything else out in the portfolio and, and everyone like 95 00:04:56,880 --> 00:04:59,760 it's probably the most common message I get. 96 00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:01,440 Is it time to trim? Is it time to trim? 97 00:05:01,440 --> 00:05:05,080 Like people send me photos of Subarnier or even just physical 98 00:05:05,080 --> 00:05:07,840 platinum and I'm always like sell to buy. 99 00:05:07,840 --> 00:05:09,720 What? Like, I agree if you're going 100 00:05:09,720 --> 00:05:11,880 to, if you're going to dump it and you're going to go into 101 00:05:12,080 --> 00:05:16,160 some, I don't know, some heated corner of like oil or coal. 102 00:05:16,160 --> 00:05:18,440 But if you're just freaking out because it's starting to run 103 00:05:18,560 --> 00:05:22,080 like some of the gold, like I think gold's still cheap, but 104 00:05:22,080 --> 00:05:24,640 everyone, yeah, everyone's like freaking out at the chart going 105 00:05:24,640 --> 00:05:28,160 vertical. Yeah, we don't know, like we 106 00:05:28,320 --> 00:05:31,000 don't know what to do when when something goes up like, you 107 00:05:31,000 --> 00:05:35,720 know, 3-4, five, 100% because, because, yeah, for like 15 years 108 00:05:35,720 --> 00:05:38,520 I've been convinced that that those are those are not actual 109 00:05:39,800 --> 00:05:42,880 paradigm shifts or, or, you know, like they're just, they're 110 00:05:42,880 --> 00:05:45,480 just commodity cycles, but. But that stuff we just bitch 111 00:05:45,480 --> 00:05:47,520 about because that happens in the tech world, but it doesn't 112 00:05:47,520 --> 00:05:49,040 actually happen in in the mining space. 113 00:05:49,040 --> 00:05:51,160 So it's a bit sort of hard to, to grapple with. 114 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:53,600 I'm, I'm keen to jump into a whole bunch of different names, 115 00:05:53,600 --> 00:05:55,960 but why don't we talk a bit about China first? 116 00:05:55,960 --> 00:05:58,040 Because I think that sort of creates the setting. 117 00:05:58,040 --> 00:06:00,840 And, and Trev, you did a bit of a write up on what's happening 118 00:06:00,840 --> 00:06:03,640 with, with BHB and Ferg. You've, you've written about a 119 00:06:03,640 --> 00:06:08,240 similar type dynamic with regards to Russia and and China 120 00:06:08,240 --> 00:06:10,440 sort of settling trades in RnB. So why don't we kick it off 121 00:06:10,440 --> 00:06:12,120 there? Yeah, mate. 122 00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:16,160 Well, I think like the the, the context for, for the case I 123 00:06:16,160 --> 00:06:20,160 wrote this week was sitting the scene a few a few months back. 124 00:06:20,800 --> 00:06:23,920 Word is they put out this short piece about so-called, you know, 125 00:06:23,920 --> 00:06:28,000 commercial dispute between BHP and China Mineral Resources 126 00:06:28,000 --> 00:06:31,560 Group or CMIG, China's new state backed iron ore buyer. 127 00:06:32,480 --> 00:06:35,480 At the time the issue was said to be over Jimmy bar fines 128 00:06:35,480 --> 00:06:39,200 specific to to that one product. A commercial dispute about the 129 00:06:39,200 --> 00:06:41,680 blend, the pricing differentials, impurities, 130 00:06:41,680 --> 00:06:44,120 etcetera. Like that kind of framing of a, 131 00:06:44,240 --> 00:06:47,080 of a of a tug of war, nothing political, just just business 132 00:06:47,080 --> 00:06:49,960 right. And then late September, 133 00:06:51,480 --> 00:06:55,120 Bloomberg reported that the Chinese mills had been told to 134 00:06:55,120 --> 00:06:59,040 stop buying BHP cargoes all together, or at least the ones 135 00:06:59,040 --> 00:07:02,560 under the influence of CMRG. So the the commercial dispute 136 00:07:02,560 --> 00:07:05,720 was at that point starting to look like a freeze out, I 137 00:07:05,720 --> 00:07:09,840 thought. And, and yeah, like my 138 00:07:09,840 --> 00:07:12,840 interpretation of this was, was sort of evolving. 139 00:07:12,880 --> 00:07:15,720 I, I found it like fascinating. We spoke about on the podcast. 140 00:07:15,920 --> 00:07:17,680 I remember making a statement like, it's going to be 141 00:07:17,680 --> 00:07:18,920 interesting to see who caves here. 142 00:07:19,360 --> 00:07:21,960 My, my, my theory about who that would be. 143 00:07:22,400 --> 00:07:24,520 But for two weeks, like, you know, there was, there was 144 00:07:24,520 --> 00:07:26,240 nothing, nothing in the public domain. 145 00:07:26,640 --> 00:07:28,320 No, like the story just kind of vanished. 146 00:07:29,160 --> 00:07:33,040 Like Friday afternoon. We'd just gone single Industry 147 00:07:33,600 --> 00:07:39,040 wire article, you know, pops up in steel orbits says that BHP 148 00:07:39,040 --> 00:07:42,120 has agreed to a, to a new arrangement, effectively 149 00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:46,520 settling 30% of its spot iron ore sales to China in RMB 150 00:07:46,520 --> 00:07:48,880 instead of U.S. dollars. And that was it. 151 00:07:49,040 --> 00:07:51,680 There was, you know, that Industry Wire kind of briefly 152 00:07:51,680 --> 00:07:54,160 did the rounds on, on Twitter. I remember it just getting a bit 153 00:07:54,160 --> 00:07:56,560 of a spotlight there. So I thought not I see, I see it 154 00:07:56,560 --> 00:07:58,200 on Twitter over the weekend. I'm thinking this is this is a 155 00:07:58,200 --> 00:08:00,760 big deal. And we come into the office on 156 00:08:01,080 --> 00:08:03,680 Monday, JD, and like, one of the things we do every weekday is we 157 00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:07,080 compile, you know, the big stories into a daily note. 158 00:08:07,160 --> 00:08:09,360 And I'm I'm looking everywhere and they're like the mainstream 159 00:08:09,440 --> 00:08:11,040 press for for an article about this. 160 00:08:11,040 --> 00:08:13,880 Like, where's the coverage from Reuters or Bloomberg or the 161 00:08:13,880 --> 00:08:14,920 Finn? Nothing. 162 00:08:15,440 --> 00:08:17,760 All that's out there is still this like this steel Orbis 163 00:08:17,760 --> 00:08:20,600 industry wire, like the, you know, everyone's absent on it. 164 00:08:20,720 --> 00:08:23,760 And so we put the steel obvious link in there in the director 165 00:08:23,760 --> 00:08:25,600 special. Yeah. 166 00:08:25,600 --> 00:08:28,400 And and I think we're just like then reflecting on like, why is 167 00:08:28,400 --> 00:08:30,000 there no coverage of this? What the hell is going on? 168 00:08:30,640 --> 00:08:32,880 Putting a few kind of like, yeah, like having a few 169 00:08:32,880 --> 00:08:35,200 conversations with a few different people with different 170 00:08:35,320 --> 00:08:38,880 insights in in there. I've become, I became like just 171 00:08:38,880 --> 00:08:41,480 over the next few hours after that, just increasingly 172 00:08:41,720 --> 00:08:43,640 convinced that there was something here like first 173 00:08:43,640 --> 00:08:44,880 verified. But this is true. 174 00:08:44,880 --> 00:08:48,760 It's not just like a, a, a rogue, you know, industry wire 175 00:08:48,760 --> 00:08:50,040 thing. So verified it is true. 176 00:08:50,840 --> 00:08:54,560 And then verified that like no one's got any appetite to write 177 00:08:54,560 --> 00:08:56,480 about it or it's getting suppressed by verification 178 00:08:56,480 --> 00:08:58,640 channels. And I just thought I've got to 179 00:08:59,000 --> 00:09:01,920 put my, my, my words and my thinking out there into the 180 00:09:01,920 --> 00:09:03,480 abyss about what, what I think this means. 181 00:09:03,480 --> 00:09:05,040 Because I think it's, I think it's seismic. 182 00:09:05,040 --> 00:09:08,640 I think this is, this is, this is a big, big, big deal. 183 00:09:08,720 --> 00:09:11,600 But I'll I'll pause there. Yeah, I think he nailed it, 184 00:09:11,600 --> 00:09:16,640 Trev. Like the my first observation 185 00:09:16,640 --> 00:09:18,960 was exactly yours. I was like, this is a seismic 186 00:09:18,960 --> 00:09:21,040 shift because it's going to start the dominoes. 187 00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:25,080 If they can get an agreement like that with BHP, then that's 188 00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:27,960 going to be held up with all the other large miners. 189 00:09:28,320 --> 00:09:32,920 And why isn't this all over Bloomberg, Reuters like it was 190 00:09:32,920 --> 00:09:34,880 it was that happened what 5 days ago? 191 00:09:34,920 --> 00:09:40,200 And there's Reuters has even published pieces since then that 192 00:09:41,240 --> 00:09:46,480 sort of almost like just dismiss it like they're saying no, the, 193 00:09:46,760 --> 00:09:49,720 the few shipments that have changed hands have still been 194 00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:52,000 USD like that. That wasn't whatever the third 195 00:09:52,000 --> 00:09:55,320 paragraph of it. And yeah, as you say, when you 196 00:09:55,320 --> 00:09:58,520 just Google it like you can read the first 2 pages and there's 197 00:09:58,520 --> 00:10:02,640 not one mention of it on any large media outlet. 198 00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:05,920 And I just find that mind boggling of how important this 199 00:10:05,920 --> 00:10:09,920 is. This is a real game changer when 200 00:10:09,920 --> 00:10:15,240 you consider like I, I've been really paying attention to this 201 00:10:15,240 --> 00:10:19,000 since someone I follow really closely and I think everyone 202 00:10:19,000 --> 00:10:20,880 should is Louis Vincent Garb's work. 203 00:10:21,360 --> 00:10:26,320 And he's he was the first one that kind of pointed out to me 204 00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:33,360 that the US dollar has been largely the bottleneck to let 205 00:10:33,400 --> 00:10:35,520 Asian growth. When you consider that they have 206 00:10:35,520 --> 00:10:39,000 to run surpluses so that they have the dollars to buy the 207 00:10:39,000 --> 00:10:40,920 energy and the commodities they need. 208 00:10:41,640 --> 00:10:47,400 And when you kind of understand that this is moving away from 209 00:10:47,400 --> 00:10:51,520 that and how much growth this could unleash through Asia, if 210 00:10:51,520 --> 00:10:54,960 they can trade with their own energy, with their own 211 00:10:54,960 --> 00:10:57,320 commodities and their own currencies, which they can then 212 00:10:57,320 --> 00:10:59,560 print. It's a complete like up in the 213 00:10:59,560 --> 00:11:02,800 entire system that we've come accustomed to for the last 30-40 214 00:11:02,800 --> 00:11:06,240 years. And for it to get no coverage by 215 00:11:07,040 --> 00:11:10,400 the mainstream media, it's it's bananas to me. 216 00:11:10,720 --> 00:11:13,560 But I think there's, yeah, there's a lot of information and 217 00:11:13,560 --> 00:11:14,960 the fact that it's not getting touched. 218 00:11:15,240 --> 00:11:19,360 And yeah, I'm happy to dive down any of those rabbit holes you 219 00:11:19,360 --> 00:11:22,160 want, but I think it's seriously important, yeah. 220 00:11:22,280 --> 00:11:24,880 So I've got a really interesting thing to to add to what you just 221 00:11:24,880 --> 00:11:28,000 said there, Ferg, in in doing a bit of reading before we just 222 00:11:28,000 --> 00:11:31,280 jumped on this call. Now I came across another, you 223 00:11:31,280 --> 00:11:36,000 know, another newswire service. It's not like a, a Bloomberg or 224 00:11:36,000 --> 00:11:39,080 a Financial Times or anything like these pretty sort of under 225 00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:42,600 the radar type stuff. And they wrote up that Indian 226 00:11:42,600 --> 00:11:46,760 oil purchases from Russia are now going to be settled in Yuan 227 00:11:46,800 --> 00:11:50,520 as well. Now this was flirted with in in 228 00:11:50,520 --> 00:11:56,920 2023 and late 22 on on the back end of right after the the 229 00:11:56,920 --> 00:12:00,520 Russia Ukraine conflict started, but it didn't kind of go 230 00:12:00,520 --> 00:12:03,120 anywhere. And now it's kicked up again 231 00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:06,600 because it's, it's kind of the easiest currency to to do that 232 00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:10,400 in to make that R&B into rubles transaction. 233 00:12:10,400 --> 00:12:15,160 And that is a, that is a huge win for the, the Chinese, right? 234 00:12:15,160 --> 00:12:20,120 For for them to have India, a country of a billion plus people 235 00:12:20,560 --> 00:12:24,800 buying yuan to to settle their energy transactions is enormous. 236 00:12:24,800 --> 00:12:27,560 And again, I don't think it's a coincidence coming in the same 237 00:12:27,560 --> 00:12:29,800 kind of few weeks that we're talking about this with, with 238 00:12:29,800 --> 00:12:31,640 BHBI mean it. It just can't be. 239 00:12:32,120 --> 00:12:36,120 Yeah, that's and that's like I mean there's there's you know 240 00:12:36,320 --> 00:12:41,600 Saudi Arabia selling oil in in yuan on on the other side of the 241 00:12:41,800 --> 00:12:46,000 the the Ledger on the borrowing side, you know, can you got a 242 00:12:46,040 --> 00:12:50,160 massive discount on interest for for denominating in in yuan very 243 00:12:50,160 --> 00:12:53,760 recently. There's there's there's 244 00:12:53,920 --> 00:12:57,960 Fortescue borrowing in in yuan like we're seeing like in front 245 00:12:57,960 --> 00:13:00,800 of us. Yeah, the the rewriting of the 246 00:13:00,800 --> 00:13:04,280 financial architecture in favour of if you are not like I, I 247 00:13:04,280 --> 00:13:06,920 titled my piece that, you know, the iron dollar crack PHP is 248 00:13:06,920 --> 00:13:10,520 quite surrender to the yuan. And that might seem hyperbolic. 249 00:13:11,560 --> 00:13:15,280 And, and, and some people point out that that, you know, this is 250 00:13:15,280 --> 00:13:18,440 just 30% of spot sales. It's not long term sales. 251 00:13:18,600 --> 00:13:20,400 You know what, this is a newsworthy blah, blah, blah. 252 00:13:20,400 --> 00:13:24,960 But if you think this is where things start, I think you're 253 00:13:24,960 --> 00:13:26,160 delusional. I think you're asleep at the 254 00:13:26,160 --> 00:13:28,200 wheel. Like I think this is, this is a 255 00:13:28,200 --> 00:13:32,440 well trodden playbook. And, and like, it's a crack, but 256 00:13:32,440 --> 00:13:35,320 my God, like a, you know, a crack grows in it. 257 00:13:35,320 --> 00:13:38,120 It splits open the whole system. Yeah. 258 00:13:38,120 --> 00:13:41,240 I, I, I, I can't like understate how, how like fundamentally 259 00:13:41,640 --> 00:13:45,200 like, you know, important. I think this, this, this, this 260 00:13:45,200 --> 00:13:49,200 is because it was, it was actually, it's funny, it's PHP 261 00:13:49,200 --> 00:13:51,680 as well, because it was, it was Meyer's cloppers 15 years ago 262 00:13:51,840 --> 00:13:56,640 that that helped anchor the, the the trading of iron ore, two US 263 00:13:56,640 --> 00:14:00,200 dollars in the first place at the like, yes, they were 264 00:14:00,200 --> 00:14:03,400 settling in U.S. dollars. But, but, but what, what, what, 265 00:14:03,480 --> 00:14:06,640 you know, what, what, what he did with, with, with pinning it 266 00:14:06,640 --> 00:14:10,720 to the, the dollar based spot indexes like that was that that 267 00:14:10,720 --> 00:14:13,960 basically served to ensure it was U.S. dollar settled for, for 268 00:14:13,960 --> 00:14:16,160 the, for the, for the following like 15 years. 269 00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:19,480 And, and now it's now it's BHP seating ground on that. 270 00:14:20,400 --> 00:14:23,880 And you know, copper's legacy might be kind of unwritten in 271 00:14:23,880 --> 00:14:26,040 front of our eyes. And where does like, where does 272 00:14:26,040 --> 00:14:27,600 the power lie here? Right? 273 00:14:27,600 --> 00:14:30,440 Like it was like it's kind of obvious. 274 00:14:31,120 --> 00:14:34,360 It's it's so obvious it's a commercial position for BHP to 275 00:14:34,400 --> 00:14:38,240 to seed there because they need they need China way more than 276 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:39,760 the other way around. And we're kidding ourselves 277 00:14:39,760 --> 00:14:41,960 everything differently. That's a pretty big goal. 278 00:14:42,320 --> 00:14:48,440 I yeah, I mean, I, I don't think the, the change of this, we undo 279 00:14:48,440 --> 00:14:51,680 cloppers and the work you did back in, back in the day, right? 280 00:14:51,680 --> 00:14:56,560 Because they have had decades of unbelievable profit, just like 281 00:14:56,640 --> 00:14:59,360 mouth watering kind of profit that you don't, you don't see 282 00:14:59,360 --> 00:15:01,640 hang around for, for too kind of long. 283 00:15:01,760 --> 00:15:05,240 But I think you're, you're spot on in the power shifting and and 284 00:15:05,240 --> 00:15:08,520 the shift that we're seeing underway right now, like the, 285 00:15:08,600 --> 00:15:14,000 the power has firmly been with Valet, Rio Tinto, BHP and to a 286 00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:17,680 slightly lesser extent FMG over the past 2020 plus years. 287 00:15:18,240 --> 00:15:20,360 But bit by bit that that kind of changes. 288 00:15:20,400 --> 00:15:22,040 And I disagree with that framing. 289 00:15:22,160 --> 00:15:25,320 And so I don't think the the power's ever been with them. 290 00:15:25,320 --> 00:15:27,920 I think the power has been with the US dollar. 291 00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:31,320 And like, and I'll give you an example of like, like 292 00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:34,560 SO2020112012. There's a phenomenal kind of 293 00:15:34,560 --> 00:15:37,040 case case study that articulates the power. 294 00:15:37,040 --> 00:15:39,440 China has always had to flex their muscle here. 295 00:15:41,160 --> 00:15:46,600 Between 2008 and 2012, Bali spent $4 billion on on building 296 00:15:46,600 --> 00:15:50,520 out these like extra large iron ore, iron ore ships called Valet 297 00:15:50,520 --> 00:15:52,480 Max. They built like 30 of these big 298 00:15:52,480 --> 00:15:54,960 ships and they thought they could save like like 4-3 to 299 00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:57,960 $4.00 U.S. dollars per tonne with these, you know, big, big 300 00:15:57,960 --> 00:16:00,200 carry ships. And so they get built. 301 00:16:00,200 --> 00:16:04,760 And then what happens in early 2012 China, they institute this 302 00:16:04,760 --> 00:16:09,600 ban forbidding dry bulk vessels over 300,000 tonnes. 303 00:16:09,880 --> 00:16:12,240 So just these ships are no longer allowed at any of the 304 00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:16,320 ports, right And they the stated reasons at the beginning of that 305 00:16:16,320 --> 00:16:19,320 ban were safety important infrastructure concerns like. 306 00:16:19,320 --> 00:16:23,040 What year did that happen? So 2012, yeah, 2012, but you 307 00:16:23,040 --> 00:16:25,400 know, sound from, you know, like there's a it's a commercial 308 00:16:25,400 --> 00:16:27,840 misunderstanding to start with. And eventually what happens? 309 00:16:27,840 --> 00:16:30,760 What did Valley have to do? They sell the entire fleet not 310 00:16:30,760 --> 00:16:34,880 for 4 billion for 1.4 billion, mostly to Costco, not Costco 311 00:16:35,160 --> 00:16:39,080 Costco, which is a China shipping and and it was a sale 312 00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:41,320 and leaseback. So China got the long term 313 00:16:41,320 --> 00:16:44,240 leases of Viola using these ships to go to their ports. 314 00:16:45,040 --> 00:16:49,200 Like like, you know, the ban, the ban disappears. 315 00:16:49,520 --> 00:16:52,280 And So what I bring that story up because both episodes the 316 00:16:52,280 --> 00:16:55,720 exact same choreography. Step one dispute, like, you 317 00:16:55,720 --> 00:16:59,120 know, dispute narrative gives Beijing room to act without 318 00:16:59,120 --> 00:17:00,720 admitting political intent. Step 2. 319 00:17:01,160 --> 00:17:05,040 The pressure escalates. Step 3, the foreign miner 320 00:17:05,040 --> 00:17:08,200 resolves it seeding the structural ground violate 321 00:17:08,359 --> 00:17:13,200 selling the ships to to Costco BHP by settling cargoes in R&B. 322 00:17:14,240 --> 00:17:16,599 Don't for a second think BHP can bully China. 323 00:17:16,599 --> 00:17:19,480 It's the other way around. And always like the, the, the 324 00:17:19,480 --> 00:17:22,000 buyer has the power here. I think it's always been that 325 00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:23,280 way. It's just the unit of 326 00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:24,960 denomination. The power, you know, the power 327 00:17:24,960 --> 00:17:28,160 between the the East and West is, is changing in front of our 328 00:17:28,160 --> 00:17:32,640 eyes thanks to some own goals. Yeah, I, I see, I see your 329 00:17:32,640 --> 00:17:35,120 point. I, I, I don't agree at all. 330 00:17:35,120 --> 00:17:39,000 I think Rio and BHB have had far more of the power and that's why 331 00:17:39,000 --> 00:17:43,880 we saw from 2003 to 2006 prices increase from from 30 bucks a 332 00:17:43,880 --> 00:17:48,000 tonne to like 200 odd bucks a ton, because there was so much 333 00:17:48,000 --> 00:17:51,680 more demand outweighed by that. And the like the, the Chinese 334 00:17:51,680 --> 00:17:54,320 have been angry about this for, for decades. 335 00:17:54,320 --> 00:17:57,960 And that is why they, they built this group, China Minerals 336 00:17:57,960 --> 00:18:00,680 Resources Group, because they wanted to bring together the 337 00:18:00,680 --> 00:18:04,000 power, the buying power of the, the steel mill so that they 338 00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:07,920 could weigh in with their buying heft and, and try and counteract 339 00:18:07,920 --> 00:18:10,200 that. But yeah, we'll, we'll sort of 340 00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:11,040 see where that goes. What? 341 00:18:11,040 --> 00:18:11,440 What? Do you? 342 00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:13,520 It's interesting you, you mentioned, you mentioned that 343 00:18:13,520 --> 00:18:19,600 aggregation of power as a way to mitigate like, like to 344 00:18:19,600 --> 00:18:22,000 consolidate the power. Yeah, here's like, here's a 345 00:18:22,000 --> 00:18:24,720 hypothetical. Could, could, could we, could we 346 00:18:24,720 --> 00:18:28,360 have a CMIG of Australia aggregate the buying aggregate 347 00:18:28,360 --> 00:18:31,040 the selling power of, you know, the iron ore out of Australia. 348 00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:34,240 That's that's like, you know, if you're, it'd be it'd be a 349 00:18:34,280 --> 00:18:38,040 political nightmare, but and a very antagonistic thing to do. 350 00:18:38,040 --> 00:18:41,360 But you know, like and anti competitive in so many ways. 351 00:18:41,360 --> 00:18:44,000 But that's like that's that's the only way you actually get 352 00:18:44,000 --> 00:18:46,600 leverage here, because otherwise otherwise what happens here is 353 00:18:46,600 --> 00:18:50,280 this 30% it gets becomes more and more you build liquidity in 354 00:18:50,280 --> 00:18:52,920 the spot market. All of a sudden, long term, like 355 00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:59,400 every every other company like Thalas, Rio Tinto, Fortescue, 356 00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:02,200 everyone gets like pushed a little bit and a little bit and 357 00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:05,520 a little bit and before you know it like and being our new 358 00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:07,400 standard, but. Bring them all into the fold. 359 00:19:07,400 --> 00:19:11,440 Let's create an OPEC of of Australia plus Brazil and China 360 00:19:11,440 --> 00:19:12,640 will be coming to our door again. 361 00:19:13,280 --> 00:19:14,280 Yeah. What do you reckon, Ferg? 362 00:19:16,480 --> 00:19:19,200 I, I just think you got to think a lot bigger than this because I 363 00:19:19,200 --> 00:19:28,720 think this is, this is all of Asia wanting to essentially 364 00:19:28,720 --> 00:19:31,520 increase their, their growth. And they, they know that US 365 00:19:31,520 --> 00:19:33,080 dollar's being weaponized against them. 366 00:19:33,160 --> 00:19:36,040 And they're like, if I don't know how closely you've been 367 00:19:36,040 --> 00:19:40,840 following India lately, if you follow Modi on Twitter, he's 368 00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:44,680 been posting pics of him catching up with, with Putin, 369 00:19:44,680 --> 00:19:47,120 like going for rides. They're all having dinners like 370 00:19:47,120 --> 00:19:48,840 that. There was a seven-year gap 371 00:19:48,840 --> 00:19:55,520 between Modi even going to China meeting with and the fact that 372 00:19:55,520 --> 00:19:58,800 they're actually all buddies. When you've got China, that's 373 00:19:58,800 --> 00:20:02,240 got all the commodities. You've sorry, you've got Russia, 374 00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:04,280 it's got all the commodities and it's willing to obviously do 375 00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:06,640 these deals left, right and center and currencies net 376 00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:10,000 settled in gold. You've got China, which has got 377 00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:15,360 all the manufacturing and crazy cheap capital, which this point 378 00:20:15,360 --> 00:20:16,880 I'll come back to because there's, there's really 379 00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:18,560 interesting sort of parallel with that. 380 00:20:19,360 --> 00:20:25,240 And you've got India with see monster population really under 381 00:20:25,240 --> 00:20:28,440 the utilized labour and they're all starting to work together. 382 00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:32,320 I think like the last Bloomberg article I read when I was trying 383 00:20:32,320 --> 00:20:36,560 to find a Bloomberg article on this BHP sort of yon settlement 384 00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:41,640 was it was almost a argument saying that China's overplaying 385 00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:45,000 its hand because they can pivot to Indian growth. 386 00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:48,520 And I was like, this is like a a unified front. 387 00:20:48,520 --> 00:20:51,480 You're kind of completely missing what's happening here. 388 00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:55,720 It's similar to you. You read the articles of the US 389 00:20:55,720 --> 00:20:59,160 trying to pressure Saudis like the there was a point, I think 390 00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:01,720 it was 2000, early 2002 thousand and three. 391 00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:09,200 I think that US was 2020 odd percent of Saudi oil exports. 392 00:21:09,360 --> 00:21:17,200 And now it's 3/3 and 1/2 and China is 2021% of so it's the 393 00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:22,760 they they get to name the terms when they're the a majority 394 00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:24,440 buyer. And that's that's what's 395 00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:27,920 happened here, there. And, and a lot of this has been 396 00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:32,000 spent on goals. A lot of this is really 397 00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:37,240 accelerated since the seizure of the Russian assets. 398 00:21:37,520 --> 00:21:42,120 And that's just, it's only going to accelerate from here. 399 00:21:42,120 --> 00:21:45,120 Like I've read a few articles just before coming on, I was 400 00:21:45,120 --> 00:21:47,200 like trying to see all the different viewpoints. 401 00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:50,240 And a lot of it was like, but the payment rails won't be able 402 00:21:50,240 --> 00:21:51,800 to handle it. There isn't enough swaps. 403 00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:55,480 Or like if anything you learn with the Chinese, like they can 404 00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:59,600 innovate like you did they take EVs with like mass like joking 405 00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:03,080 about the EV, the Chinese EV industry a few years ago. 406 00:22:03,240 --> 00:22:06,520 He's not laughing now with what BYD has achieved. 407 00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:10,200 And I think you're going to see a similar setup with Huawei 408 00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:12,360 verse NVIDIA and long enough runway. 409 00:22:12,360 --> 00:22:18,480 Like don't don't underestimate when they they put their sort of 410 00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:24,680 all their focus behind something just how how quickly they can 411 00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:30,600 innovate and gain market share. And where I was going with the 412 00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:34,360 sort of the cheap money parallel was again, this is Louis Vincent 413 00:22:34,360 --> 00:22:41,680 Garv pointing out this is like a parallel of the post GFC in the 414 00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:44,600 US. It was this great David Tipper 415 00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:47,840 interview when he went out. I don't think he went on. 416 00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:54,240 I don't know what it was seeing CNN or some channel and they 417 00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:55,960 were asking what did he think of the stock market? 418 00:22:55,960 --> 00:22:58,960 He said, oh, you just, you got to buy because now the Fed's got 419 00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:02,000 your back. You've obviously just had a real 420 00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:04,160 estate bust. There's going to be cheap money 421 00:23:04,160 --> 00:23:06,240 pumped into the system if the market goes down, the federal 422 00:23:06,240 --> 00:23:10,000 pump more in and inflation is low. 423 00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:14,080 And that's just going to be an epic bull market from here. 424 00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:19,680 And Louis, Louis Garve was drawing the same analogy with of 425 00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:22,720 China in particular, that's how cheap Chinese equities, in 426 00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:26,560 particular Chinese tickers that you've now got the PBOC behind 427 00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:31,580 it. You've got very like non 428 00:23:31,580 --> 00:23:34,680 existent inflation. You've got lots of cheap money, 429 00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:38,600 which I see here in Indonesia. There's you can buy BYD here for 430 00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:43,160 years interest free and you've got the entire sort of Asian 431 00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:46,440 market to grow, which is all climbing up the rest curve and 432 00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:51,760 and yeah, the PBOC just standing by to inject more stimulus into 433 00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:53,440 the system. They're coming off the back of a 434 00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:56,240 real estate bust. Like the parallels are really 435 00:23:56,240 --> 00:23:59,080 interesting when you view it like that and just how bearish 436 00:23:59,080 --> 00:24:03,960 everyone is on the market. Like even if you look at FX I 437 00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:07,120 the Chinese large cap, 50% of that float is short. 438 00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:10,760 You're K web where I think nearly 1/4 of that shortest 439 00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:17,480 float, that float is short. And I just, yeah, I think this 440 00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:20,600 is the start of like a mega trend and no one wants to see it 441 00:24:20,600 --> 00:24:25,600 because everyone's too busy chasing, chasing what's going on 442 00:24:25,600 --> 00:24:28,680 in the US with lots of financial engineering and a lot of stuff 443 00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:30,280 that doesn't make sense, honestly to me. 444 00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:32,880 I really like your thinking there. 445 00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:37,120 The, the question that comes to mind is we, we had a pretty 446 00:24:37,120 --> 00:24:40,880 prominent fund manager here in Perth by a lot of Russian 447 00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:44,280 equities cheap, you know, telco energy, all these sorts of 448 00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:45,920 things. So I'm really curious how you 449 00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:49,200 think about the the tail risk with with placing your money in 450 00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:51,240 in China? Yeah. 451 00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:54,840 So that's like don't own AD Rs to start with. 452 00:24:55,080 --> 00:25:01,720 Like the the the fact that you could wake up to U.S. citizens 453 00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:03,480 not being able to own Chinese equities. 454 00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:05,440 I think I really doubt it would happen. 455 00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:08,200 But that is obviously a tail risk you just don't want to 456 00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:10,000 position for. So if you're going to buy 457 00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:14,080 something, buy something ideally on like Hong Kong exchanges or 458 00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:18,480 yeah, there's, there's plenty of vehicles that you can buy it 459 00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:22,480 that you don't have to go through sort of ADR and have 460 00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:28,280 that risk. But overall, like the I don't 461 00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:30,880 think the US can function without China. 462 00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:34,000 Like I don't know if you've ever seen this, this amazing chart 463 00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:36,440 that the, the US sort of in dash. 464 00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:41,760 I think it's the yeah, I think it's the the Air Force and just 465 00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:47,200 how ingrained Chinese companies are with the vast majority of 466 00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:51,080 them have at least like two or three Chinese suppliers in their 467 00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:53,680 supply chain. And they got asked could they 468 00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:57,880 disentangle from the Chinese? And he's just like, we can de 469 00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:03,360 risk, but we can't, we can't. Like it's too entangled. 470 00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:05,760 We can't remove ourselves from the Chinese companies. 471 00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:12,560 So the idea that like Russia, they could sanction I China at 472 00:26:12,560 --> 00:26:16,280 all, there'll just be far too much damage done to the US 473 00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:18,240 economy if they fully sanction them. 474 00:26:18,640 --> 00:26:21,280 And I actually just posted a piece out in Ferg's finds 475 00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:25,760 yesterday. That was a lot of the way the US 476 00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:30,640 actually calculates its, its manufacturing base doesn't take 477 00:26:30,640 --> 00:26:39,000 into account what percentage is manufactured from foreign parts, 478 00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:40,920 which is just ludicrous when you think about it. 479 00:26:41,240 --> 00:26:45,280 So it's just like sales receipts on the end, like for cars half 480 00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:48,360 imported parts, it still just takes it as American made on the 481 00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:52,320 final sale of the vehicle. And there's lots more examples 482 00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:56,640 like that that US has hauled itself out so badly. 483 00:26:56,800 --> 00:27:01,120 And yeah, I think if they did really try and sanction China, 484 00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:04,080 like the fallout in the US would be absolutely massive. 485 00:27:04,080 --> 00:27:05,800 So I honestly don't think they can. 486 00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:12,240 Yeah, it's AI mean it despite all of that, we've we've heard a 487 00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:14,640 lot about it the the last kind of six months and and again it 488 00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:17,120 just kicked up over over the weekend, right. 489 00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:21,200 And it's, it's so remarkable because I think a lot about the 490 00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:24,000 the amount of money we hear governments talking about with 491 00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:26,240 regards to to critical minerals and all these sorts of things. 492 00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:29,080 And we speak about it a bunch, you know, a billion dollar 493 00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:31,040 stockpile here, $2 billion there. 494 00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:34,680 But that little trade spat wiped off nearly 4 1/2 trillion 495 00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:39,320 dollars in, in one day off of the S&P, which is kind of 496 00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:42,480 remarkable to think about. It puts it puts the the industry 497 00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:45,920 in which we play predominantly into a lot of context, I kind of 498 00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:53,480 think. Totally, Yeah, the, the and the 499 00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:55,080 market's weird as a result of it, right. 500 00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:58,360 Like I, it's funny you mentioned David Tepper is like banging the 501 00:27:58,360 --> 00:28:00,960 table, like, you know, by the market, because he was also 502 00:28:00,960 --> 00:28:04,520 doing the exact same thing like 8 months ago by Chinese tech, by 503 00:28:04,520 --> 00:28:08,680 China. Yeah, he was. 504 00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:12,160 Yeah, yeah, it makes good sense at certain times. 505 00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:16,360 But then everyone in our everyone in our neck of the 506 00:28:16,360 --> 00:28:20,360 woods in our world is just instead of being drawn to the to 507 00:28:20,360 --> 00:28:23,520 the, to the maybe the beaten up bargain that, that you're 508 00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:27,320 inherently drawn to Ferg. They they love the unobtainium, 509 00:28:28,120 --> 00:28:33,040 the Trump box, the yeah, the rare earth, you know, the the 510 00:28:33,080 --> 00:28:37,040 anointed administration deals that just yeah, mint shareholder 511 00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:42,440 value into existence. Yeah, it's difficult with that 512 00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:47,120 because there's I think we're talking before how you can have 513 00:28:47,120 --> 00:28:49,720 a faces that you think sound and then there's just a whole lot of 514 00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:53,960 turds in with the raisins. Like if you look at URA with 515 00:28:55,000 --> 00:29:01,600 going over only 20% of that's just one SMR startup now, which 516 00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:06,600 is just, it's got no revenue. No, it's just running on hype 517 00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:09,400 and you've got like, yeah, before you even add in a few of 518 00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:12,280 the other SMRS. I think I think over 1/3 of it's 519 00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:17,840 like just between SMRS and maybe a bit of was it's the interest 520 00:29:17,840 --> 00:29:19,840 as well. It's just, yeah, you're not 521 00:29:19,840 --> 00:29:22,680 getting the fundamental. And then you can, you can even 522 00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:27,120 go further and dig into the likes of like the UEC was nearly 523 00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:31,640 8 billion market cap Now on what did it produce like 100,000 lbs? 524 00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:35,040 Try and explain that cash flow to me. 525 00:29:35,040 --> 00:29:37,800 And I don't know, they'll hold up the nameplate of 12 million, 526 00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:41,520 but I'd be, I'd be amazed if they have even hit 20% of that. 527 00:29:42,280 --> 00:29:45,760 So, yeah, it's, it's a weird market, honestly. 528 00:29:45,760 --> 00:29:49,680 It's, I'm finding myself increasingly trying to hide out 529 00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:56,360 and physical and yeah, really, really trying to stay away from 530 00:29:56,360 --> 00:29:59,360 the hype. But it's difficult, yeah. 531 00:29:59,560 --> 00:30:02,160 And it's obviously nice to see stuff working as well. 532 00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:06,840 But yeah, I don't like don't feel comfortable when I see so 533 00:30:06,840 --> 00:30:10,560 much just crazy stuff flying at the same time. 534 00:30:11,320 --> 00:30:13,520 What are the physicals you most draw into at the moment, Ferg? 535 00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:18,520 So I got a big chunk of My Portfolio and PGMS. 536 00:30:18,520 --> 00:30:26,280 So I have what was that cost? It was like over 10% of My 537 00:30:26,280 --> 00:30:32,920 Portfolio is just rhodium and platinum, have another 5% was 538 00:30:33,080 --> 00:30:40,840 physical uranium. And what else have I got? 539 00:30:41,600 --> 00:30:44,520 I've been kind of got kind of like a dollar cost average where 540 00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:47,280 I put it in a vault with physical gold and a bit of 541 00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:51,360 platinum. So yeah, I kind of always liked 542 00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:56,320 the sort of non recourse side of it as well, having been on the 543 00:30:56,320 --> 00:30:59,920 other side of right at the start of my career, had my brokerage 544 00:30:59,920 --> 00:31:02,400 go bust. So that was a kind of a career 545 00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:03,880 defining. I don't want to ever have to 546 00:31:03,880 --> 00:31:09,520 start from zero again. Was that Opus Prime just by the 547 00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:14,480 way? That was BBY, yeah, Yeah. 548 00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:18,200 Good to learn that lesson early. Yeah, he was getting an 549 00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:21,880 instruction from A and she was like astrologer or something. 550 00:31:21,880 --> 00:31:25,360 Came out later. Just maybe, maybe Grimace. 551 00:31:25,760 --> 00:31:30,680 The worst thing was I actually got, I actually got the payout. 552 00:31:30,920 --> 00:31:34,440 I got like maybe 2/3 of it back. But it was like a year or two 553 00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:36,320 ago and I was like, thanks. I'm like, I don't really need 554 00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:39,920 the money now. Like I would have been when I 555 00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:45,200 was like on the bones of my ass. And yeah, over whatever it was 556 00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:47,720 over a decade ago, yeah, I really needed it at the end. 557 00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:50,440 I don't give it to me now. It's not very helpful. 558 00:31:50,640 --> 00:31:53,240 Yeah. Wow, nasty. 559 00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:55,080 That is, that's pretty remarkable. 560 00:31:55,560 --> 00:31:59,240 Came to unpack, yeah, a few of those medals and just sort of, 561 00:31:59,360 --> 00:32:01,680 yeah, maybe go around the table and share what we're kind of 562 00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:05,120 thinking. PGMS is the one I'm most keen to 563 00:32:05,120 --> 00:32:07,840 start with because yeah, like we sort of said, it's really 564 00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:10,680 started to work. So both Platts and Palladium 565 00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:14,440 about 1000 US bucks an ounce maybe 6 odd months ago. 566 00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:18,760 Now they're 17 and 1600 respectively. 567 00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:22,600 Rhodium as well kind of group group it in I think from 4 1/2 568 00:32:22,600 --> 00:32:27,760 thousand ish level now to to 7 odd 1000 bucks and they're yeah, 569 00:32:27,760 --> 00:32:31,000 rhodium sort of held at that level for for quite some time. 570 00:32:31,000 --> 00:32:35,160 But has your, has your thinking changed given this, this sort of 571 00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:38,160 run up with with how you're positioning at all in across the 572 00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:42,280 the sort of space there? No, not really. 573 00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:45,200 I'm honest. Like it's, it's nice to see the 574 00:32:45,200 --> 00:32:48,600 faces validated, but I think it's kind of a long way to run 575 00:32:48,640 --> 00:32:52,440 because you've still got, I think if you bunch all the PGMS 576 00:32:52,440 --> 00:32:55,360 and in South Africa, they're only just starting to kind of 577 00:32:55,360 --> 00:33:00,600 approach sort of like kind of incentive price where they could 578 00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:02,640 consider bringing on additional supply. 579 00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:06,200 And then as we all know, there's a big lag with with that like it 580 00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:08,160 doesn't it's not going to turn on tomorrow. 581 00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:13,160 And you've also seen one that not many people's mention is non 582 00:33:13,160 --> 00:33:17,520 nickel, which is a big chunk of the PGMS out of Russia that's 583 00:33:17,520 --> 00:33:21,520 keep pushing back a big expansion and that's looking 584 00:33:21,520 --> 00:33:23,960 probably not going to come on until late 2028. 585 00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:27,360 Now that was supposed to add 7% to the overall space and that 586 00:33:27,360 --> 00:33:32,000 was supposed to help offset the decline in South African supply. 587 00:33:32,480 --> 00:33:36,720 So yeah, it's one of those sectors that yeah, it's shot the 588 00:33:36,720 --> 00:33:43,280 lights out, but I honestly, maybe you can have a decent pull 589 00:33:43,280 --> 00:33:44,840 back. Like nothing goes straight up in 590 00:33:44,840 --> 00:33:50,160 the line like platinum has forever what, a 1020% even 30% 591 00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:53,880 pull back. Be healthy, sure, but I'm not 592 00:33:53,880 --> 00:33:56,960 worried because I'm playing this for the next 5 years. 593 00:33:56,960 --> 00:34:00,840 Like I, I want stuff that I can sleep if I wake up in the 594 00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:04,600 markets like Trump's gone full retard and we get like a 595 00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:09,120 liberation day on steroids. Like if I've got a portfolio 596 00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:13,280 full of sort of physical platinum, rhodium, uranium off 597 00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:16,600 sleep just fine and I'll know that the reaction function, if 598 00:34:16,600 --> 00:34:19,600 anything, will be to print more money because you can't have a 599 00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:26,280 just the where US finds itself like it's, it's all so 600 00:34:26,280 --> 00:34:29,840 financialized that if the market rolls over, they need to the tax 601 00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:33,840 receipts will roll over and the whole thing becomes harder to 602 00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:35,280 finance. So they'll have to pump money in 603 00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:38,480 to try and get it up. I think inflation will run 604 00:34:38,480 --> 00:34:41,159 hotter. And that all just leads back to 605 00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:47,199 to a lot of the sort of, if you're based in like and hard 606 00:34:47,199 --> 00:34:51,239 assets, particularly ones where you see a really big sort of 607 00:34:51,239 --> 00:34:53,760 supply demand gap, then you'll you'll do really well. 608 00:34:54,560 --> 00:34:59,760 And other areas where I think it's you might not be able to 609 00:34:59,920 --> 00:35:03,960 partake in the the physical, but you're paying so little to play 610 00:35:03,960 --> 00:35:06,400 the game with the miners with like the likes of 10. 611 00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:08,040 That's probably my favorite right here. 612 00:35:08,240 --> 00:35:13,000 And also coal like you're just not paying much and history is 613 00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:15,640 anything to go by. They're often some of the better 614 00:35:15,640 --> 00:35:18,240 outperformers when inflation does show up because you kind of 615 00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:21,320 if you have all the like the the shit coins and the non 616 00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:25,520 profitable ticker one end of the long duration curve, like your 617 00:35:25,520 --> 00:35:28,880 shortest shortest duration you can get as like a a commodity 618 00:35:28,880 --> 00:35:31,320 trading in a few times cash flow, selling into spot. 619 00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:32,880 That's the shortest duration you can get. 620 00:35:32,880 --> 00:35:35,640 So you they generally really shoot the lights out on their 621 00:35:35,640 --> 00:35:39,280 outcome. So yeah, between physical really 622 00:35:39,280 --> 00:35:42,200 well priced commodity producers and then if I'm going to look 623 00:35:42,200 --> 00:35:46,560 for torque, I'm like sort of with uranium, I don't really 624 00:35:46,560 --> 00:35:50,560 like any of the producers. So I just want to sit on guys 625 00:35:50,560 --> 00:35:52,880 are sitting on big pounds that haven't sort of signed any 626 00:35:52,880 --> 00:35:56,280 contracts because I see, yeah, future price has been an awful 627 00:35:56,280 --> 00:36:00,320 lot higher. I think we're all in alignment 628 00:36:00,320 --> 00:36:02,400 that real assets do pretty well in this environment. 629 00:36:03,480 --> 00:36:06,920 It's it's always hard to to look at a look at look at 60% up year 630 00:36:06,920 --> 00:36:10,040 to date or 80% up year to date in certain commodity prices and 631 00:36:10,040 --> 00:36:12,120 think I think this trend continues. 632 00:36:12,120 --> 00:36:17,240 But but the P the PGM the way to play it like like I love your 633 00:36:17,240 --> 00:36:18,800 way of thinking about risk haven't probably been on the 634 00:36:18,800 --> 00:36:21,400 receiving end of mine is that have have torched torched money 635 00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:25,960 along the way. I I yeah, when like thinking 636 00:36:25,960 --> 00:36:28,640 about expressing the same the same view on on that commodity 637 00:36:28,640 --> 00:36:33,840 ourselves like I remember the analogue I remember clearly is 638 00:36:33,840 --> 00:36:36,720 is remember when bauxite shut the lights out the tail end of 639 00:36:36,720 --> 00:36:41,040 last year and the two kind of like ways to play bauxite on on 640 00:36:41,040 --> 00:36:42,960 ASX. There was Metro mining and then 641 00:36:42,960 --> 00:36:46,040 there was Canyon Canyon the undeveloped, you know, yeah, 642 00:36:46,160 --> 00:36:50,320 like sexy development project could be, could be phenomenal, 643 00:36:50,360 --> 00:36:51,760 needs, needs funding, blah, blah, blah. 644 00:36:51,800 --> 00:36:57,560 And then Metro like producing already turn around story Canyon 645 00:36:57,560 --> 00:37:00,720 absolutely monstered the monstered like Metro. 646 00:37:00,880 --> 00:37:02,240 Our performance was was enormous. 647 00:37:02,240 --> 00:37:05,920 So I think like I think and I think about that often when 648 00:37:05,920 --> 00:37:09,600 you've got these these sharp yeah, like commodity move 649 00:37:09,600 --> 00:37:12,120 dynamics, is it better to be in the minor or is it better to be 650 00:37:12,120 --> 00:37:15,160 in the development story that is like, you know, blue, like blue 651 00:37:15,160 --> 00:37:17,440 sky, yada yada. And I often think it's the 652 00:37:17,440 --> 00:37:21,040 development story. And the good thing about the 653 00:37:21,040 --> 00:37:25,720 development story as well is you're less like, you're less 654 00:37:25,720 --> 00:37:30,040 prone to an operational screw up because because it's not 655 00:37:30,360 --> 00:37:31,680 nothing's operational at the moment you. 656 00:37:31,720 --> 00:37:33,680 Can't let the mining get in the way and actually ruin the 657 00:37:33,680 --> 00:37:35,200 narrative. I actually think, I actually 658 00:37:35,200 --> 00:37:38,520 think there's risk mitigation and more upside in owning the 659 00:37:38,520 --> 00:37:41,320 development story. And yeah. 660 00:37:41,360 --> 00:37:43,000 How do you think about that with PGMS? 661 00:37:43,000 --> 00:37:46,520 So we we bought some, we bought some Southern Palladium like 662 00:37:46,520 --> 00:37:49,400 development story that that thing's just gone bonkers. 663 00:37:49,400 --> 00:37:52,920 Unfortunately, we didn't capture the whole move, but we also just 664 00:37:53,120 --> 00:37:56,080 I think we, I think like like we were talking about this, we just 665 00:37:56,080 --> 00:38:00,480 buy a portfolio of producers and like you know, I think we 666 00:38:00,480 --> 00:38:04,200 bought, we bought Zimplats as well, bought Zimplats. 667 00:38:04,200 --> 00:38:07,320 I think that's just a ripping business, great track record 668 00:38:07,440 --> 00:38:10,760 feel feel comfortable owning that and comfortable that you 669 00:38:10,760 --> 00:38:12,440 know returns to shareholders will endure. 670 00:38:12,600 --> 00:38:16,000 But if you go back in time, by the way, and capture all of the 671 00:38:16,000 --> 00:38:19,520 ASX mining, no, actually all of the listed mining companies from 672 00:38:19,520 --> 00:38:26,640 I think it's 2002 to today, Fortescue returns #1 simplatz #2 673 00:38:27,000 --> 00:38:28,080 total shareholder return, really. 674 00:38:28,360 --> 00:38:29,800 Yeah, wow. Really. 675 00:38:29,960 --> 00:38:32,800 Yep, I mean like, I mean there's not many like miners that are 676 00:38:32,800 --> 00:38:36,640 still on the same list of 2002. Business Today, a lot of turn 677 00:38:36,680 --> 00:38:38,680 over there. But it's, it's a, it's a, it's 678 00:38:38,680 --> 00:38:42,360 a, you know, like, I think it's evidence of I've got shareholder 679 00:38:42,360 --> 00:38:44,920 value alignment, like, you know, returns to shareholders 680 00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:47,160 evidence. So I feel pretty comfortable 681 00:38:47,160 --> 00:38:50,440 there. And then I like we didn't, we 682 00:38:50,440 --> 00:38:53,240 didn't buy it, but I think I think Teresa is actually pretty 683 00:38:53,240 --> 00:38:54,880 interesting too. We're like enough to visit that 684 00:38:54,880 --> 00:38:59,320 operation in South Africa. I'm kind of interested in that, 685 00:38:59,440 --> 00:39:03,560 that like the, I remember pitching it to you, Ferg, after 686 00:39:03,560 --> 00:39:04,920 we even visited it. I've never owned it. 687 00:39:04,920 --> 00:39:09,240 I don't want to pitch it to you, but I was like, but, but, but 688 00:39:09,240 --> 00:39:12,640 again, like 40, I think it's like 40% owned by, you know, 689 00:39:12,720 --> 00:39:15,200 family. Like great track record of 690 00:39:15,200 --> 00:39:19,080 actually, you know, reinvesting for, for growth, generating more 691 00:39:19,080 --> 00:39:21,360 profits from that reinvestment. You've just got good alignment 692 00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:24,680 with with, with, with what's going on there going underground 693 00:39:24,680 --> 00:39:26,000 now. So costs are going to go higher, 694 00:39:26,000 --> 00:39:29,880 but, but you know, going to face that sooner rather than later. 695 00:39:29,880 --> 00:39:32,240 And yeah, it's like 1 operation now. 696 00:39:32,240 --> 00:39:34,440 The big upside there, there's two, there's two catalysts I 697 00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:38,600 think like can can make things really interesting for Theresa. 698 00:39:39,200 --> 00:39:45,400 One is migrating off the LSE and two is our Caro growth project. 699 00:39:45,640 --> 00:39:49,200 But even exclude, exclude Caro, exclude LSE and they're trading 700 00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:51,880 substantially less than the NAV today. 701 00:39:52,800 --> 00:39:55,880 And what we we know from these like plant reef mining is like 702 00:39:55,880 --> 00:39:58,040 they, you know, NAV never captures the right thing. 703 00:39:58,040 --> 00:39:59,280 That's why it's implants has been the story. 704 00:39:59,280 --> 00:40:02,760 It is because you go deeper, expand, you know, like, yeah, 705 00:40:03,040 --> 00:40:04,720 yeah. Yeah, it was, it was super cool 706 00:40:04,720 --> 00:40:07,680 to see the, like you said, the, the, the investment they've done 707 00:40:07,680 --> 00:40:11,320 in the project, you could see like plant one, plant 2, plant 708 00:40:11,320 --> 00:40:14,080 3, as they just get enough cash, they expand it by building 709 00:40:14,080 --> 00:40:16,360 another plant and then they can sort of have more output. 710 00:40:16,360 --> 00:40:17,640 That was, it was pretty cool to see. 711 00:40:18,320 --> 00:40:23,320 We also sort of went by a a bit of Sibanye's operation and Ferg, 712 00:40:23,320 --> 00:40:26,320 I know you've done a write up on on Sibanye in the past and and 713 00:40:26,320 --> 00:40:28,800 toyed with the idea. Have you actually held that one 714 00:40:28,800 --> 00:40:29,760 or you're holding it at the moment? 715 00:40:30,080 --> 00:40:31,640 Yeah, yeah. No, I've I've got it, Yeah. 716 00:40:32,320 --> 00:40:33,720 How do you kind of think about that now? 717 00:40:33,720 --> 00:40:38,280 Oh. So yeah, I'm happy to share with 718 00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:41,840 like how I set it up because I, so I essentially bought 5% 719 00:40:41,840 --> 00:40:48,640 physical rhodium, 5% physical platinum, 3% and plates and 2% 720 00:40:48,640 --> 00:40:51,360 Sabania. And my thinking there was 721 00:40:52,280 --> 00:40:54,480 Sabania and, and plates were the talked plays. 722 00:40:54,680 --> 00:40:57,680 But you're investing in South African miners. 723 00:40:57,680 --> 00:41:01,760 So you're playing, playing with fire. 724 00:41:01,880 --> 00:41:04,800 Like you can wake up and they do something dumb like any day of 725 00:41:04,800 --> 00:41:08,400 the week. So the ratio was kind of 726 00:41:08,400 --> 00:41:13,280 important because if anything happened, I don't know, you wake 727 00:41:13,280 --> 00:41:16,640 up to some crazy news like that South African governments trying 728 00:41:16,640 --> 00:41:17,680 to nationalize them or something. 729 00:41:17,680 --> 00:41:24,680 Then between and plants is 3035 odd percent of global rhodium 730 00:41:24,680 --> 00:41:28,120 production and I think Sibanya is somewhere around quarter, 731 00:41:29,040 --> 00:41:31,520 then you're going to get a pretty crazy price reaction and 732 00:41:31,520 --> 00:41:33,080 the commodity. So it's kind of like a hedging 733 00:41:33,080 --> 00:41:35,600 strategy. Like if anything went too wrong 734 00:41:35,600 --> 00:41:40,320 with the miners, they were such a big, such a big amount of the 735 00:41:40,320 --> 00:41:43,560 global production that I'd make out like a band on the bandit on 736 00:41:43,560 --> 00:41:47,920 the physical. And that was how I kind of how I 737 00:41:47,920 --> 00:41:50,920 positioned the portfolio and largely been kind of happy with 738 00:41:50,920 --> 00:41:53,400 how it played out. Also think like with Rhodium, 739 00:41:53,400 --> 00:41:57,040 people really underestimate just how violent the moves and that 740 00:41:57,040 --> 00:41:59,520 have been historically. It's a, it's a by product. 741 00:41:59,520 --> 00:42:04,600 So when people require it, they can't, there's no real way to 742 00:42:04,600 --> 00:42:09,000 increase the the supply and a lot of the additional supply 743 00:42:09,000 --> 00:42:11,680 coming on in the next few years. Kind of like what I mentioned 744 00:42:11,680 --> 00:42:14,520 with no nickel, it doesn't actually have much rhodium at 745 00:42:14,520 --> 00:42:16,440 all. It's very Palladium heavy. 746 00:42:17,360 --> 00:42:21,080 Some plants are supposed to add a decent amount to the overall 747 00:42:21,160 --> 00:42:23,080 PGM market and that's all Palladium heavy. 748 00:42:23,080 --> 00:42:28,080 So very low rhodium split and even within, even within South 749 00:42:28,080 --> 00:42:33,560 Africa, it's all moving up to sort of the northern Bush field 750 00:42:33,560 --> 00:42:35,040 and that's all more Palladium heavy. 751 00:42:35,040 --> 00:42:40,240 Whereas historically like the the splits that have been super 752 00:42:40,240 --> 00:42:43,440 high rhodium, like 9% rhodium, that's just been in one 753 00:42:43,440 --> 00:42:45,240 particular area in the Bush belt. 754 00:42:47,120 --> 00:42:50,080 Yeah. Also the there's one other 755 00:42:50,080 --> 00:42:52,160 element and I know you kind of touched on it, but I think it's 756 00:42:52,160 --> 00:42:55,960 kind of more prevalent than ever that they, they have operations 757 00:42:55,960 --> 00:42:59,480 in the US that they, you know, retrenched half of or something 758 00:42:59,840 --> 00:43:01,800 earlier this year, maybe late last year. 759 00:43:01,800 --> 00:43:05,960 So I'm kind of curious to see if, if the US government starts 760 00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:08,960 handing out money and they, they might look at that, but not 761 00:43:08,960 --> 00:43:10,560 something to sort of pin any hopes on. 762 00:43:10,560 --> 00:43:13,360 But I'm, I'm kind of curious about that one there with a 763 00:43:13,360 --> 00:43:15,520 whole bunch of jobs in, in Montana there. 764 00:43:16,840 --> 00:43:18,760 Should we, should we move this on and, and talk about silver? 765 00:43:18,760 --> 00:43:20,840 Trev, I know you did a bit of thinking about silver and 766 00:43:20,840 --> 00:43:23,400 there's a lot of talk about the, the squeeze going on this week. 767 00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:28,200 Talk about yeah, you mentioned earlier JD, like seeing seeing 768 00:43:28,200 --> 00:43:29,840 big returns in in corners of the market. 769 00:43:29,840 --> 00:43:32,440 You can't be across everything and like, you know, but but 770 00:43:32,440 --> 00:43:35,680 Silver's one just I've watched the set up right in front of us, 771 00:43:35,680 --> 00:43:38,200 just watched, watched the like, watched everything play out and 772 00:43:38,200 --> 00:43:40,400 been like. You you told me when I sold one 773 00:43:40,400 --> 00:43:43,360 of these that I'm an idiot that's going to whatever triple 774 00:43:43,360 --> 00:43:43,880 or something. I. 775 00:43:43,960 --> 00:43:45,160 Forgot about that. Yeah, right. 776 00:43:45,280 --> 00:43:47,600 I actually forgot about that. You are an idiot. 777 00:43:47,600 --> 00:43:50,720 I had that on my actually, I'm an idiot too, because I had that 778 00:43:50,720 --> 00:43:52,680 same stock of my to buy list and I never bought it. 779 00:43:53,320 --> 00:43:54,840 Yeah, so. We've all been there. 780 00:43:54,960 --> 00:43:57,000 Anyway, opportunity cost, the exact same thing as real. 781 00:43:57,160 --> 00:44:01,520 Yeah, both opportunity cost like silver, silver and gold, both 782 00:44:01,520 --> 00:44:03,840 all time highs. Yeah, the silver bulls feel 783 00:44:03,840 --> 00:44:08,680 vindicated silver squeeze playing out it's it's remarkable 784 00:44:08,680 --> 00:44:12,800 like where the the silver lovers don't know where they live most 785 00:44:12,800 --> 00:44:16,280 of the time, but they they come out in absolute spades like when 786 00:44:16,360 --> 00:44:19,280 when silver gets when it gets bid and my God, there's a lot of 787 00:44:19,280 --> 00:44:22,160 them out there. Stocks are flying especially 788 00:44:22,160 --> 00:44:25,000 like we're just more acquainted with the ASX stocks, which are 789 00:44:25,000 --> 00:44:29,440 much lower quality silver names, but even those silver names are 790 00:44:29,440 --> 00:44:33,400 just absolutely gone ballistic. Is, is this one of those, one of 791 00:44:33,480 --> 00:44:36,840 those like derivatives of the same theme like, you know, 792 00:44:37,120 --> 00:44:39,600 transition to real assets, precious metals in vogue, 793 00:44:39,600 --> 00:44:42,680 etcetera, etcetera that you've just let go by to the keeper as 794 00:44:42,680 --> 00:44:45,240 well, Ferg? Yeah. 795 00:44:45,240 --> 00:44:47,800 Well, this is just, yeah. I just see it as one big theme 796 00:44:47,880 --> 00:44:51,920 and like it's yeah, running across the board like whether 797 00:44:51,920 --> 00:44:59,080 you've really played it via gold, silver, platinum, it's all 798 00:45:00,480 --> 00:45:02,200 capturing. Yeah. 799 00:45:02,360 --> 00:45:09,480 What has been like it's been fascinating seen just how kind 800 00:45:09,480 --> 00:45:11,080 of capital star this got with crypto. 801 00:45:11,080 --> 00:45:14,080 Like I saw it, crypto did take up a lot of like the speculative 802 00:45:14,080 --> 00:45:18,680 fever, especially in like the more juniors like I've, I don't 803 00:45:18,680 --> 00:45:22,600 know, don't earn any silver, but I do own gold juniors and just 804 00:45:22,600 --> 00:45:27,240 seen that go from just massive outflows even when gold was 805 00:45:27,240 --> 00:45:30,240 running was just absurd to me. And to see that finally getting 806 00:45:30,240 --> 00:45:33,320 inflows now it's starting retails only just starting to 807 00:45:33,320 --> 00:45:36,280 pay attention to it. So I always kind of smile when I 808 00:45:36,280 --> 00:45:39,880 get emails now with people like, you know, time to sort of head 809 00:45:39,880 --> 00:45:42,400 for the exits because some of the stuff is getting 810 00:45:42,400 --> 00:45:44,720 overextended. And I just feel whether it's 811 00:45:45,200 --> 00:45:48,400 gold, silver, platinum, like, sure, if you want to kind of 812 00:45:48,400 --> 00:45:53,240 trade it for a small pullback like be my guess, but I'm just 813 00:45:53,240 --> 00:45:55,760 closing my eyes and kind of looking at where the sort of 814 00:45:55,760 --> 00:45:57,680 stuff will all be in five years time. 815 00:45:57,880 --> 00:46:04,400 I just think this is this is like the trade you kind of want 816 00:46:04,400 --> 00:46:08,480 to benchmark your rest of your portfolio against and at the 817 00:46:08,480 --> 00:46:11,360 very least have absent, absent physical. 818 00:46:11,440 --> 00:46:15,160 Yeah, which whichever one it is, is 1 you can get your head 819 00:46:15,160 --> 00:46:17,040 around. This is kind of why I went after 820 00:46:17,040 --> 00:46:21,080 platinum so heavily is because I all the PGM space more in 821 00:46:21,080 --> 00:46:23,040 particular, it's because I thought I could get my head 822 00:46:23,040 --> 00:46:24,960 around the sector. It's quite simple really when 823 00:46:24,960 --> 00:46:28,600 you consider it's only a few South African miners, non nickel 824 00:46:29,000 --> 00:46:35,720 and and whereas silver's a bit more complex and yeah. 825 00:46:37,360 --> 00:46:39,440 It's interesting when you mentioned like, yeah, part of 826 00:46:39,440 --> 00:46:42,560 your your buy thesis for for rhodium was the fact it's this 827 00:46:42,560 --> 00:46:44,480 byproduct. I always, I always like 828 00:46:44,800 --> 00:46:47,160 struggled to get over the line on being really interested in 829 00:46:47,160 --> 00:46:50,240 silver just because of the huge volumes of of Co production 830 00:46:50,640 --> 00:46:53,600 involved in it. But you know, like bull markets 831 00:46:53,600 --> 00:46:56,880 to bull market things. And yeah, sure, it makes it does 832 00:46:56,880 --> 00:46:58,160 make sense that silver's gone crazy. 833 00:46:58,200 --> 00:47:02,800 Like bull market few interesting deals this week silver wise. 834 00:47:04,040 --> 00:47:06,280 I can't I just can't believe the numbers associated with some of 835 00:47:06,280 --> 00:47:10,000 the cap raisers. So Boab Metals ASX listed, they 836 00:47:10,000 --> 00:47:12,480 raised 50 million bucks. Why is that such a big number? 837 00:47:12,960 --> 00:47:16,640 Because like 3 months ago their market cap was 50 million bucks. 838 00:47:17,240 --> 00:47:20,600 Like it's just crazy. It's utterly crazy. 839 00:47:20,600 --> 00:47:23,560 I just, yeah, I had to pinch myself when I saw saw that. 840 00:47:23,600 --> 00:47:26,440 And then this will be interesting if it comes to 841 00:47:26,440 --> 00:47:27,840 market. It's like a standalone vehicle. 842 00:47:27,840 --> 00:47:32,160 I doubt it. It'll probably just be be go to 843 00:47:32,520 --> 00:47:34,040 an alternative company to sell process. 844 00:47:34,040 --> 00:47:37,240 But S 32 revealed to be divesting Cannington. 845 00:47:38,600 --> 00:47:40,400 Yeah, that'll be that'll be that'll be really interesting 846 00:47:40,400 --> 00:47:44,160 asset to see standalone on its own 2 feet on its own 2 feet. 847 00:47:44,160 --> 00:47:47,440 And there'll be an interesting silver vehicle associated with 848 00:47:47,440 --> 00:47:51,200 it if it if it does find its way to be a standalone ASX company. 849 00:47:51,200 --> 00:47:55,040 I'll be intrigued. Funny thing about S 82 agreeing 850 00:47:55,040 --> 00:47:57,240 to divest Cannington. I noticed the first time it 851 00:47:57,240 --> 00:48:00,000 popped up in in the Australian, they got the banker wrong. 852 00:48:00,600 --> 00:48:03,600 And then and then like a week later, same article pops up. 853 00:48:04,080 --> 00:48:06,040 Oh, no, it's actually, it's, it's not that cap that's 854 00:48:06,040 --> 00:48:08,400 selling, that's selling Cannington. 855 00:48:08,480 --> 00:48:11,400 It's Baron Joey and JP Morgan. JP Morgan. 856 00:48:11,600 --> 00:48:13,080 Yeah, so they, they completely cooked it. 857 00:48:13,080 --> 00:48:14,760 But you know what? You know what all three of those 858 00:48:14,800 --> 00:48:17,640 investment banks absolutely do know to do when it comes to a 859 00:48:17,640 --> 00:48:19,080 sale process, mate, enlighten me. 860 00:48:19,520 --> 00:48:22,120 They will use interlinks as the virtual data room. 861 00:48:22,200 --> 00:48:23,200 Interlinks. Interlinks. 862 00:48:23,320 --> 00:48:25,440 Back in my banking days, there was no alternative. 863 00:48:25,640 --> 00:48:28,880 You used interlinks because I mean you're talking about 864 00:48:28,880 --> 00:48:32,400 billions of dollars here like the deal mechanics have to be on 865 00:48:32,400 --> 00:48:34,440 point. Everything about that entire 866 00:48:34,440 --> 00:48:37,080 process can be managed with absolute ease. 867 00:48:37,080 --> 00:48:41,200 When it comes to like interlinks entire like deal suite, big 868 00:48:41,200 --> 00:48:44,040 interlinks, fan use interlinks. They also sponsor us, if you 869 00:48:44,040 --> 00:48:45,680 can't tell, because this is an ad for Interlinks. 870 00:48:45,960 --> 00:48:47,320 Interlinks. Details in the show notes. 871 00:48:47,600 --> 00:48:50,360 Ferg, we couldn't have you on and not talk about energy. 872 00:48:50,360 --> 00:48:53,000 I think Trev and I have both been pretty entranced with, with 873 00:48:53,000 --> 00:48:57,040 the energy space as we kind of just scavenge around looking for 874 00:48:57,040 --> 00:48:59,960 value again. And I might add the, the 875 00:48:59,960 --> 00:49:03,200 offshore and other services type players to that conversation as 876 00:49:03,200 --> 00:49:06,240 well, because I think I think they're one of the, the, the 877 00:49:06,240 --> 00:49:09,240 lesser sort of pockets now in, in the areas that we look that 878 00:49:09,240 --> 00:49:13,200 actually shows some some really kind of compelling value. 879 00:49:13,200 --> 00:49:15,080 And I know you've, you've thought about it a lot. 880 00:49:15,080 --> 00:49:18,080 I know you've held some of these names for for quite some time, 881 00:49:18,080 --> 00:49:22,000 But are you, are you more attracted to this space given 882 00:49:22,040 --> 00:49:24,840 everything else is kind of moving in recent times and than 883 00:49:24,840 --> 00:49:27,680 you have been say a year ago or even longer when you started 884 00:49:27,680 --> 00:49:29,280 writing about these sorts of parts of the market? 885 00:49:30,480 --> 00:49:34,040 Yeah, well, my problem was I went heavy in it like a year ago 886 00:49:34,040 --> 00:49:37,080 and so I've just round tripped back anything I made. 887 00:49:37,400 --> 00:49:41,560 So yeah, you're talking some quite a sort of sunk cost in it. 888 00:49:41,560 --> 00:49:46,360 But no, I, I, I think it's going to have it stay in the sun just 889 00:49:46,360 --> 00:49:49,600 as everyone sort of hated metals a few years ago. 890 00:49:49,600 --> 00:49:53,080 And once it starts to move, it drags sediment with it. 891 00:49:53,600 --> 00:49:55,760 I think the same is going to happen across the energy space. 892 00:49:56,600 --> 00:49:58,360 And historically it has been the case as well. 893 00:49:58,360 --> 00:50:03,360 When you consider it's, it's almost logical that like miners 894 00:50:03,440 --> 00:50:05,800 will always look the best when they're sort of input costs the 895 00:50:05,800 --> 00:50:07,240 lowest. And then when energy spikes, 896 00:50:07,240 --> 00:50:12,280 squeezes margins and then everyone inflation is goes hand 897 00:50:12,280 --> 00:50:15,360 in hand with energy. So once inflation picks up, the 898 00:50:15,360 --> 00:50:17,440 miners aren't as attractive. And anyway, everyone sort of 899 00:50:18,400 --> 00:50:22,760 foams of the mouth and piles into energy as a hedge for 900 00:50:22,760 --> 00:50:26,960 inflation and, and yeah, the miners having their margin 901 00:50:26,960 --> 00:50:28,880 squeeze. So you can look at a lot of 902 00:50:29,360 --> 00:50:31,120 historic sort of examples of that. 903 00:50:33,480 --> 00:50:38,800 I've got more bullish on energy just because of how how much 904 00:50:38,800 --> 00:50:41,000 pain has gone through. Like you were mentioning sort of 905 00:50:41,000 --> 00:50:44,280 the particularly the offshore drillers. 906 00:50:45,040 --> 00:50:47,760 I thought we were seeing the cycle start to inflict about a 907 00:50:47,760 --> 00:50:53,400 year ago. And since then we've just seen a 908 00:50:53,400 --> 00:50:58,160 whole lot more drills, drill ships and sort of even see me 909 00:50:58,160 --> 00:51:00,280 subscript. So the whole sector, if you 910 00:51:00,280 --> 00:51:02,160 will, has got even more consolidated. 911 00:51:02,240 --> 00:51:07,520 You've got had oil prices come down and yet there's no kind of 912 00:51:07,520 --> 00:51:09,600 getting around the fact that is the future of oil growth. 913 00:51:09,960 --> 00:51:13,320 It's over 70% of future oil growth is going to have to come 914 00:51:13,320 --> 00:51:16,200 from offshore. That's just, it's the facts of 915 00:51:16,200 --> 00:51:19,960 where where the future supply lies. 916 00:51:19,960 --> 00:51:23,560 And yet the the sector itself is getting more and more condensed. 917 00:51:23,560 --> 00:51:27,680 And this is kind of what you see in cyclical sectors is before 918 00:51:27,680 --> 00:51:31,840 you get to that inflection point, it's just been so capital 919 00:51:31,840 --> 00:51:35,440 starved that a small amount of capital coming into it will just 920 00:51:35,440 --> 00:51:40,880 have a really outsized result. And yeah, I just, I think we're 921 00:51:40,880 --> 00:51:47,200 probably always, I thought that probably going to see 922 00:51:48,040 --> 00:51:52,640 utilisations start to really bite probably mid next year. 923 00:51:53,320 --> 00:51:58,120 I think a lot of the, the IEA is obviously they're just horribly 924 00:51:58,240 --> 00:52:00,720 wrong with most their projections over time. 925 00:52:01,040 --> 00:52:04,800 I kind of have a head of name where they nailed their, their 926 00:52:04,800 --> 00:52:06,960 bearish take on oil and it was like a stormtrooper like 927 00:52:07,080 --> 00:52:11,800 actually hitting someone. And it was just a, just a one 928 00:52:11,800 --> 00:52:14,320 off like if you know their actual track record, they've 929 00:52:14,320 --> 00:52:16,520 pretty much been wrong continually from more than a 930 00:52:16,520 --> 00:52:20,720 decade. But yeah, they did, they were 931 00:52:20,720 --> 00:52:25,400 right last year. And I, I just think there's a 932 00:52:25,400 --> 00:52:29,520 lot less spare capacity around And well, everyone's kind of 933 00:52:29,520 --> 00:52:31,880 foaming at the mouth on medals running. 934 00:52:31,880 --> 00:52:34,480 I think probably the energy space is where the best value 935 00:52:34,480 --> 00:52:36,560 is. And there's been some of my most 936 00:52:36,560 --> 00:52:42,000 recent purchases have been just like in what, what, what does 937 00:52:42,240 --> 00:52:43,840 someone think will never move again? 938 00:52:43,840 --> 00:52:46,200 Like what's the absolute epitome of like cyclical? 939 00:52:46,200 --> 00:52:49,000 And that's where I found myself. Quite a few of the companies 940 00:52:49,000 --> 00:52:52,160 have bought recently have been like seismic offshore, like the 941 00:52:52,240 --> 00:52:56,080 companies actually search for oil offshore. 942 00:52:56,200 --> 00:52:59,440 And that that's probably the one space that had an even more 943 00:52:59,440 --> 00:53:01,560 brutal time than the offshore drillers. 944 00:53:01,600 --> 00:53:04,360 The offshore drillers obviously all went bankrupt. 945 00:53:04,400 --> 00:53:07,720 But with seismic, if you take it from it was like the peak in 946 00:53:07,720 --> 00:53:13,440 2013 and like 70% went, got taken over, closed down, merged. 947 00:53:14,040 --> 00:53:18,160 And yeah. And they're actually quite good 948 00:53:18,160 --> 00:53:19,920 companies, if you will. They were just capital staff. 949 00:53:19,920 --> 00:53:23,080 Like they're quite tech focused. They're quite conservative. 950 00:53:23,080 --> 00:53:24,600 They've got a lot of cash on the balance sheet. 951 00:53:24,600 --> 00:53:29,880 And they just just hate it because who would invest in in 952 00:53:29,880 --> 00:53:32,760 growing the oil supply when supposedly we can just turn on 953 00:53:32,760 --> 00:53:35,600 share whenever we need and the world's going to run on 954 00:53:36,080 --> 00:53:38,520 windmills and solar in another decade. 955 00:53:39,040 --> 00:53:42,640 I'm sorry with you on the yeah, on the, on the like risk return 956 00:53:43,520 --> 00:53:49,120 dynamics of, of being like, yeah, value hunting in energy 957 00:53:49,120 --> 00:53:52,360 right now. Like we, we interviewed Rob 958 00:53:52,400 --> 00:53:54,520 Mullins episode there earlier this week. 959 00:53:55,240 --> 00:53:56,920 I got it. Oh, it's wicked. 960 00:53:57,120 --> 00:54:01,680 And it makes a compelling thesis for for some, some of these like 961 00:54:01,760 --> 00:54:05,760 stupidly cheap on, on a, on a valuation basis, you know, 962 00:54:05,760 --> 00:54:11,480 established European. Yeah, like oil companies even 963 00:54:11,480 --> 00:54:15,560 even like the, the more known ones, like they think of BP, 964 00:54:15,560 --> 00:54:17,240 right? Like they've, they've completely 965 00:54:17,240 --> 00:54:19,480 backtracked now that BPS about oil again. 966 00:54:19,480 --> 00:54:22,520 And they were the most psychotically pro like, you 967 00:54:22,520 --> 00:54:25,960 know, renewables of the, of the oil and gas. 968 00:54:26,000 --> 00:54:27,720 They've the biggest identity crisis of everyone. 969 00:54:28,280 --> 00:54:30,480 They've completely flipped. They've like, you know, in very 970 00:54:30,480 --> 00:54:32,400 recent history. And now they're, they find 971 00:54:32,400 --> 00:54:35,160 themselves sort of like, you know, vulnerable activists are 972 00:54:35,160 --> 00:54:37,120 involved. They're like Shell is rumoured 973 00:54:37,120 --> 00:54:39,560 to be, you know, trying to consolidate there. 974 00:54:39,560 --> 00:54:44,080 So like you can get, you can get, yeah, you can pay super 975 00:54:44,080 --> 00:54:46,960 reasonable multiples for, for, you know, businesses that have 976 00:54:46,960 --> 00:54:49,840 been around 100 of years and will be around for for hundreds 977 00:54:49,840 --> 00:54:51,120 more. At least their assets will be 978 00:54:51,800 --> 00:54:56,480 with tremendous cash flow and and ride the the wave of tide 979 00:54:56,480 --> 00:54:59,240 turning to kind of be pro shareholder return instead of 980 00:54:59,680 --> 00:55:03,880 instead of don't know what you'd call the other stuff wasn't 981 00:55:03,880 --> 00:55:08,360 shareholder return. You know, my my favorite way of 982 00:55:08,360 --> 00:55:11,800 just I always like to try and come up a way of just expressing 983 00:55:12,000 --> 00:55:15,720 like how cheap something it is and I like playing around with 984 00:55:15,720 --> 00:55:19,120 ratios and I put it in one of my first fines, probably a mouthful 985 00:55:19,120 --> 00:55:21,240 to a guy, I guess. And I was just looking at the 986 00:55:21,240 --> 00:55:27,000 ratios of other NASDAQ first like sectors. 987 00:55:27,000 --> 00:55:32,360 And when I was like, use the forget what minor, there's like 988 00:55:32,360 --> 00:55:36,600 a sector ETF for mining and it was like just took the ratio 989 00:55:36,600 --> 00:55:42,080 from the peak in 2012 thirteen to now and what it would need to 990 00:55:42,160 --> 00:55:46,040 do to get back to that peak. And it was like a it's like a 9X 991 00:55:46,600 --> 00:55:51,840 for miners across the board. And then did it with with 992 00:55:51,840 --> 00:55:54,040 energy. And that was the broad energy 993 00:55:54,040 --> 00:55:57,040 producers. And that was more or less the 994 00:55:57,040 --> 00:55:59,920 same. If it was an 80X gold was a 995 00:55:59,920 --> 00:56:02,120 little bit less. I think it was like 7X gold 996 00:56:02,120 --> 00:56:09,000 producers, but then oil services granted I used equal weight, 997 00:56:09,000 --> 00:56:13,440 which I probably should have used market cap, but it was that 998 00:56:13,440 --> 00:56:19,320 was 62 times to get back to its 2013 peak. 999 00:56:19,840 --> 00:56:26,000 And so I think you just can't, I can't express how like hated and 1000 00:56:26,000 --> 00:56:32,320 how much capital destruction has been in oil services and how 1001 00:56:32,320 --> 00:56:34,920 much runway there is, especially, especially if you 1002 00:56:34,920 --> 00:56:37,040 kind of tie some of these trends I've talked about to give it 1003 00:56:37,040 --> 00:56:41,200 like if one of my favorite hunting ground is small Asian 1004 00:56:41,280 --> 00:56:45,800 micro cap oil services. Like a my biggest, I think my 1005 00:56:45,960 --> 00:56:52,120 biggest position in like a individual company is actually a 1006 00:56:52,840 --> 00:56:57,080 yeah, is a little, a little OSB company. 1007 00:56:57,080 --> 00:57:00,520 And yeah, that's trading on the Singapore Exchange. 1008 00:57:00,920 --> 00:57:05,200 And yeah, that's been bankrupt twice, which is, and yeah, 1009 00:57:05,280 --> 00:57:06,880 Frame, when I first bought it, reached out. 1010 00:57:06,880 --> 00:57:09,160 He's like, how can you put that much money into a little noodle 1011 00:57:09,160 --> 00:57:11,880 company? It's hated unhated. 1012 00:57:12,240 --> 00:57:15,040 Jada, you come into work the other day and you're like, like 1013 00:57:15,400 --> 00:57:19,600 talk to allocate to energy. How do you think about Yeah, I 1014 00:57:19,600 --> 00:57:21,080 don't know, like like placing bets. 1015 00:57:21,080 --> 00:57:23,640 There's a lot. There's a lot of different ways 1016 00:57:23,800 --> 00:57:27,120 oil services could be, yeah, it could be the tech, it could be, 1017 00:57:27,120 --> 00:57:28,880 it could be the actual producers like. 1018 00:57:29,440 --> 00:57:32,360 Yeah, I'm not going to be as creative as as Ferg with 1019 00:57:33,080 --> 00:57:37,160 Singaporean listed micro cap offshore services plays. 1020 00:57:37,640 --> 00:57:39,240 And I don't think there's that many people we have the 1021 00:57:39,240 --> 00:57:41,320 privilege of speaking about those sorts of companies with. 1022 00:57:42,080 --> 00:57:46,040 But I, I just think it's a, a basket approach because exactly 1023 00:57:46,040 --> 00:57:48,680 like you said there Ferg, the, the whole complex has been 1024 00:57:48,680 --> 00:57:52,120 starved of capital. And that is from the, the oil 1025 00:57:52,120 --> 00:57:55,760 companies through to the, the services makers. 1026 00:57:55,760 --> 00:57:59,400 And yeah, I mean, the services makers in particular have had a 1027 00:57:59,400 --> 00:58:02,240 tough time with, with all the bankruptcies and everything. 1028 00:58:02,680 --> 00:58:05,800 But as you know, you've, you've sort of elaborated on better 1029 00:58:05,800 --> 00:58:09,200 than anyone, Ferg, that leaves them in, in good kind of 1030 00:58:09,200 --> 00:58:12,240 financial health now. And there's been a pick up from 1031 00:58:12,560 --> 00:58:15,320 the real doldrums that we saw a long time ago. 1032 00:58:16,120 --> 00:58:19,600 And then with the, the actual producers, you're getting paid 1033 00:58:19,600 --> 00:58:21,920 to wait. So even if it's going to take a 1034 00:58:21,920 --> 00:58:25,680 while to come around, if you're a bit sort of selective, we're 1035 00:58:25,680 --> 00:58:29,480 talking like a 10% dividend yield, like it's, it's crazy. 1036 00:58:29,480 --> 00:58:34,680 We're talking free cash flow yields of 2030 odd percent even 1037 00:58:34,680 --> 00:58:36,560 north of that in, in some kind of cases. 1038 00:58:36,560 --> 00:58:40,880 So it doesn't feel super, super onerous. 1039 00:58:40,880 --> 00:58:42,840 It doesn't feel like you're, you're waiting on a day that 1040 00:58:42,960 --> 00:58:45,160 that might never come because you're, you're being pretty well 1041 00:58:45,160 --> 00:58:50,560 compensated, you know, with, with risks to it as well given 1042 00:58:50,560 --> 00:58:52,560 jurisdiction and stuff where, where you might be. 1043 00:58:52,560 --> 00:58:57,520 But I, I, I don't feel any sort of reservations about putting a 1044 00:58:57,520 --> 00:59:00,880 decent portion of my kind of money there. 1045 00:59:00,920 --> 00:59:02,680 I mean how you kind of think about it is there is there 1046 00:59:02,680 --> 00:59:06,680 differences in in thought there? I I wish I had more knowledge, 1047 00:59:06,680 --> 00:59:09,920 like more specialized knowledge to have like a more thoughtful 1048 00:59:10,400 --> 00:59:14,440 yeah allocation. I think, yeah, I think like 1049 00:59:15,760 --> 00:59:17,960 rising tide will lift all boats, everyone will do really well. 1050 00:59:17,960 --> 00:59:20,880 But I think you can have like there'll be some killer returns 1051 00:59:21,000 --> 00:59:25,840 in very specific like you know, when if permitting changes or if 1052 00:59:25,840 --> 00:59:28,560 or if it may just starts like spending a lot of money in a 1053 00:59:28,560 --> 00:59:30,440 certain area and there's some small cap that really benefits 1054 00:59:30,440 --> 00:59:33,120 from that like this. Yeah, to to to that point. 1055 00:59:33,120 --> 00:59:35,840 And one thing you perhaps haven't touched on as as much 1056 00:59:35,840 --> 00:59:38,440 Ferg, is the the Aussie environment, specifically on the 1057 00:59:38,560 --> 00:59:41,400 the East Coast of Australia. But I think there's going to be 1058 00:59:41,400 --> 00:59:45,880 over the next five years a lot of opportunities there with, you 1059 00:59:45,880 --> 00:59:48,600 know, perhaps led by policy changes and, and they sorts of 1060 00:59:48,600 --> 00:59:51,840 things. And the, the, the really, you 1061 00:59:51,840 --> 00:59:54,080 know, rubbing your face in the challenges that are going to 1062 00:59:54,080 --> 00:59:58,360 come in places like Victoria and NSW with, with energy prices 1063 00:59:58,360 --> 01:00:02,240 already on a, you know, very, very sort of sharply upturning 1064 01:00:02,240 --> 01:00:04,280 trend. That's, that's not going to go 1065 01:00:04,280 --> 01:00:07,080 away until it's really kind of felt unfortunately. 1066 01:00:07,080 --> 01:00:10,040 And there are going to be a number of winners at the back 1067 01:00:10,040 --> 01:00:15,480 end of that. You know the way the way I like 1068 01:00:15,480 --> 01:00:20,760 to come at it is 11 company that just had in mind as you've been 1069 01:00:20,760 --> 01:00:29,000 talking about this is a European well, what's the service company 1070 01:00:29,400 --> 01:00:32,920 energy service company Saiping and it's had this massive recap, 1071 01:00:32,920 --> 01:00:37,240 but now paying nearly double digit dividend. 1072 01:00:37,880 --> 01:00:43,640 It's going to merge with another massive Norwegian oil service 1073 01:00:43,640 --> 01:00:46,240 company. And what I always love to do 1074 01:00:46,240 --> 01:00:48,280 like is this function coifen where you can look at all the 1075 01:00:48,280 --> 01:00:52,560 analysts and their forward average Ford estimates for the 1076 01:00:52,560 --> 01:00:54,600 next. Some of it usually goes out five 1077 01:00:54,600 --> 01:00:57,600 years and you can just see what are they actually thinking this 1078 01:00:57,600 --> 01:01:01,120 company's capable of? And they they literally won't 1079 01:01:01,120 --> 01:01:04,400 even give it like sales growth. I think it was 2% growth over 1080 01:01:04,400 --> 01:01:08,280 the next five years in sales. And I think it's I think it's 1081 01:01:08,280 --> 01:01:11,520 earnings with negative. And this was sub C7. 1082 01:01:11,520 --> 01:01:13,560 It was even worse. It was like they fought over the 1083 01:01:13,560 --> 01:01:16,840 next five years its earnings were going to be I think it was 1084 01:01:16,840 --> 01:01:19,840 down, down 12%. And you compare this to 1085 01:01:19,840 --> 01:01:26,720 something like I competed at the time to NVIDIA and they just see 1086 01:01:26,720 --> 01:01:31,400 it by 2027 already at whatever it is now. 4.5 trillion still 1087 01:01:31,400 --> 01:01:35,560 has to grow its grow its sales another 120%. 1088 01:01:36,440 --> 01:01:38,400 And China's just told them to fuck off. 1089 01:01:38,480 --> 01:01:40,320 Like get out, we're not buying any shit anymore. 1090 01:01:40,960 --> 01:01:43,360 I I remember reading that my jaw was on the floor. 1091 01:01:43,600 --> 01:01:46,000 The, the growth that that was consensus, the growth that 1092 01:01:46,000 --> 01:01:48,360 everyone had factored in was astounding. 1093 01:01:48,360 --> 01:01:50,960 It was. It was, yeah, just jaw-dropping 1094 01:01:50,960 --> 01:01:52,960 sort of stuff. Yeah. 1095 01:01:52,960 --> 01:01:57,880 And so you just want like, you want stuff that you don't have 1096 01:01:57,880 --> 01:02:01,200 to, you don't want to make it too hard for yourself to make 1097 01:02:01,360 --> 01:02:04,000 money. Like if it just, I feel like 1098 01:02:04,000 --> 01:02:07,160 that could be a company and it's a big lesson in My Portfolio. 1099 01:02:07,160 --> 01:02:12,920 I wish I'd gone to more of those where it was just wasn't such a 1100 01:02:12,920 --> 01:02:14,440 narrative trade. It was just off everyone's 1101 01:02:14,440 --> 01:02:18,160 radar. Whereas with some of the more 1102 01:02:18,160 --> 01:02:22,040 offshore stuff, it was, it was in a lot more people's 1103 01:02:22,080 --> 01:02:24,840 portfolio. It was like the real name to 1104 01:02:24,840 --> 01:02:28,320 play it. And so you get more volatility, 1105 01:02:28,320 --> 01:02:30,400 whereas some of some of these names are just kind of 1106 01:02:30,960 --> 01:02:33,240 essentially forgotten about. Like you can look at 5:00 PM and 1107 01:02:33,240 --> 01:02:36,960 it's been since, since the big recap, it doesn't experience 1108 01:02:36,960 --> 01:02:41,040 nearly the volatility and anyone that's interested in options has 1109 01:02:41,040 --> 01:02:45,480 got really long option market. So you can kind of joke that's 1110 01:02:45,480 --> 01:02:48,360 like if I did want to create like a future dividend 1111 01:02:48,560 --> 01:02:52,480 portfolio, just have a lot of these sort of at the money call 1112 01:02:52,480 --> 01:02:56,560 options that I'd exercise and he'd go out sort of for four 1113 01:02:56,560 --> 01:02:59,760 years with the option market and then exercise and then and start 1114 01:02:59,760 --> 01:03:02,080 collecting. Hopefully it's still sort of, 1115 01:03:02,440 --> 01:03:06,280 I'm guessing it's going to be a pretty healthy dividend in four 1116 01:03:06,280 --> 01:03:08,040 years time with where I see the market going. 1117 01:03:08,920 --> 01:03:12,320 So I love and I've got to play similar to that and seismic as 1118 01:03:12,320 --> 01:03:15,000 well. Like I love flows like and then 1119 01:03:15,000 --> 01:03:19,400 that one you can go right out to 2000, December 2029. 1120 01:03:19,720 --> 01:03:23,880 So you can really take bits whatever. 1121 01:03:23,960 --> 01:03:28,400 How many years at 4 1/2 now? Yeah, I love those plays. 1122 01:03:29,560 --> 01:03:31,640 I like it, got some some digging to do there. 1123 01:03:32,400 --> 01:03:36,440 Tin, tin, tin Why is the market? Why is the market sleeping on 1124 01:03:36,440 --> 01:03:38,800 tin? It always comes back to tin. 1125 01:03:41,320 --> 01:03:44,560 I love tin. I think tin is one of those tiny 1126 01:03:44,560 --> 01:03:47,080 little markets where no one cares because it's too small. 1127 01:03:47,120 --> 01:03:55,200 But there's literally every bit of information that's coming out 1128 01:03:55,480 --> 01:03:58,880 is bullish when you consider why am I? 1129 01:03:59,280 --> 01:04:02,040 Everyone kind of thinks it can ramp back up. 1130 01:04:02,040 --> 01:04:04,400 They started issuing the license and then it's just been a slow 1131 01:04:04,400 --> 01:04:07,360 trickle. And my take on that is they 1132 01:04:07,760 --> 01:04:10,640 pretty much hydrated all the easy stuff and now they have to 1133 01:04:10,640 --> 01:04:13,920 go underground and it's such a mess here that they're not going 1134 01:04:13,920 --> 01:04:16,960 to be able to do it. Ramp up a complex mining 1135 01:04:17,280 --> 01:04:21,520 operation quickly. Indonesia has been a massive 1136 01:04:21,520 --> 01:04:26,920 crackdown. They've really, really come down 1137 01:04:26,920 --> 01:04:31,440 heavily on a lot of the legal mining operations. 1138 01:04:31,720 --> 01:04:35,840 Granted, in typical Indonesian fashion, they kind of size them 1139 01:04:35,840 --> 01:04:39,480 more than head them over to a company which was bound to have 1140 01:04:39,480 --> 01:04:44,000 some political connections. But that, all of this is just 1141 01:04:44,880 --> 01:04:48,840 great icing on the cake in what was already kind of a sector and 1142 01:04:48,960 --> 01:04:51,000 supply deficit. And if you look like last year 1143 01:04:51,000 --> 01:04:55,720 before, the only thing that saved it was demand came in weak 1144 01:04:55,720 --> 01:04:58,840 as supply came in weak. It was kind of like a set up 1145 01:04:58,840 --> 01:05:05,160 where supply came in sort of three 4% deficit and then demand 1146 01:05:05,160 --> 01:05:08,600 took a similar hit. And so market balanced and now 1147 01:05:09,600 --> 01:05:13,200 the only thing kind of I've been really keeping a close eye on is 1148 01:05:13,200 --> 01:05:15,880 inventories and inventories are really drawing down rapidly. 1149 01:05:16,040 --> 01:05:19,760 So with the LMA is at kind of record lows. 1150 01:05:19,760 --> 01:05:28,520 So don't that's at the point where it's pretty much near 1151 01:05:28,520 --> 01:05:32,880 Brock bottom. And the one to watch is the the 1152 01:05:32,880 --> 01:05:36,480 Shanghai Metals Exchange or Shanghai. 1153 01:05:36,840 --> 01:05:39,200 It is chefy. Yeah, yeah. 1154 01:05:39,960 --> 01:05:48,120 What is it if if it's if it's H, if E and that that's drawing 1155 01:05:48,120 --> 01:05:51,440 down has been drawing down like 8% week on week. 1156 01:05:51,840 --> 01:05:55,160 And if you just mapped in against it. 1157 01:05:56,240 --> 01:05:59,240 That's why we're seeing like 10 just keep gaining more traction 1158 01:05:59,240 --> 01:06:01,240 because if they're not they're drawing working through their 1159 01:06:01,240 --> 01:06:05,600 inventory and and they're not getting more coming in from my 1160 01:06:05,600 --> 01:06:10,480 MA like then Tim price is going to have to keep trying to 1161 01:06:10,480 --> 01:06:12,720 incentivize more 10 and I'm just there. 1162 01:06:13,000 --> 01:06:14,840 I don't think that's going to come on quickly. 1163 01:06:15,120 --> 01:06:19,000 And then like you're not paying up for like my favorite vehicles 1164 01:06:19,000 --> 01:06:24,040 still Middle East Middlesex don't really like the DRC and 1165 01:06:24,040 --> 01:06:26,840 the fact that they're I've been off on this, like trying to 1166 01:06:26,840 --> 01:06:29,200 acquire green tech hasn't really worked out. 1167 01:06:29,640 --> 01:06:32,080 Maybe that cash, maybe they get lucky with green tech, who 1168 01:06:32,080 --> 01:06:33,760 knows, but doesn't look like it now. 1169 01:06:34,080 --> 01:06:37,960 And at some point that cash will hopefully start finding its way 1170 01:06:37,960 --> 01:06:40,640 into buybacks when it's already looking cheap. 1171 01:06:41,280 --> 01:06:43,560 Or maybe they'll buy a few more 10 juniors. 1172 01:06:43,560 --> 01:06:46,480 I don't know. Either way, it's not it's not 1173 01:06:46,480 --> 01:06:48,800 terrible. And I just think more and more 1174 01:06:48,800 --> 01:06:50,920 and more people are going to catch on to the faces as time 1175 01:06:50,920 --> 01:06:54,920 goes on. Yeah, Ding, Ding, Ding, like 1176 01:06:55,160 --> 01:06:58,200 like like it Yeah, I actually think, I actually think about 1177 01:06:58,200 --> 01:07:01,040 expressing the tin jade even even further down the yeah, the 1178 01:07:01,040 --> 01:07:06,120 curve now, like going, going for yeah, some of the marginal stuff 1179 01:07:06,120 --> 01:07:09,440 that becomes economic and and riding that wave out. 1180 01:07:09,640 --> 01:07:14,000 But the I think coppers, the other one where like the supply 1181 01:07:14,000 --> 01:07:17,240 story's so good right now. And yeah, it's just like that 1182 01:07:17,240 --> 01:07:20,440 transition period from the supply shocks. 1183 01:07:20,880 --> 01:07:23,640 There's been multiple of them just like depleting inventories 1184 01:07:23,640 --> 01:07:25,720 and then being reflected in in the price, although the price is 1185 01:07:25,720 --> 01:07:29,400 moving substantially as well. But again, of course produces 1186 01:07:29,400 --> 01:07:32,080 the beneficiaries of them. But anything with a very near 1187 01:07:32,080 --> 01:07:36,320 term production story like that's a developer capture, so 1188 01:07:36,320 --> 01:07:38,680 much, so much upside, especially if it's like a somewhat marginal 1189 01:07:38,680 --> 01:07:45,040 project. Yeah, And the only other thing I 1190 01:07:45,360 --> 01:07:48,280 think I forgot mails eggs as well was OK, as I was talking 1191 01:07:48,280 --> 01:07:50,840 about before there's there's two analysts that cover it and 1192 01:07:50,840 --> 01:07:53,520 they're both bearish as well. Bring that up. 1193 01:07:53,800 --> 01:07:57,000 They expect, I think, I think it's hard to remember what it 1194 01:07:57,000 --> 01:07:58,120 was. I, I had a look at it. 1195 01:07:58,120 --> 01:08:01,640 I think the sales were down like 1/4 over the next five years and 1196 01:08:01,640 --> 01:08:03,960 I think they expect its earnings to get cut in half. 1197 01:08:04,920 --> 01:08:05,800 I'd love to see you there. There's. 1198 01:08:05,800 --> 01:08:07,440 No benefit. There's no benefit covering 1199 01:08:07,440 --> 01:08:10,320 Middlesex because you're like, and they're never going to do a 1200 01:08:10,320 --> 01:08:11,480 deal, they're never going to raise equity. 1201 01:08:11,480 --> 01:08:14,400 So it's like. Yeah, true. 1202 01:08:14,960 --> 01:08:16,640 They get they get like one hour every month. 1203 01:08:19,640 --> 01:08:22,800 Awesome Ferg, been great chatting and picking your brain 1204 01:08:22,800 --> 01:08:25,240 as as always, always good to sort of hear about what you're, 1205 01:08:25,240 --> 01:08:26,439 what you're thinking, what you're looking at. 1206 01:08:26,439 --> 01:08:29,000 And yeah, there's just so much interesting stuff in the market 1207 01:08:29,000 --> 01:08:31,760 right now. So I love just picking through 1208 01:08:31,760 --> 01:08:33,640 it or with with people that think about it kind of 1209 01:08:33,640 --> 01:08:35,840 differently. So it's been awesome having you 1210 01:08:35,840 --> 01:08:38,680 on again mate. Always a pleasure, always love 1211 01:08:38,680 --> 01:08:41,640 chatting to you boys, yeah? Thank you mate. 1212 01:08:41,920 --> 01:08:43,520 Always awesome to chat with Ferg. 1213 01:08:43,680 --> 01:08:46,640 Love the way he thinks about markets, about the world, about 1214 01:08:46,640 --> 01:08:49,880 trolling for hated stuff. Almost as much as I love our 1215 01:08:49,960 --> 01:08:52,479 partners. Mate, a big thank you to focus 1216 01:08:52,520 --> 01:08:55,479 platform by market tech Sandvik ground support. 1217 01:08:56,160 --> 01:08:59,160 I mark the conference is coming up very soon, next week 1218 01:08:59,200 --> 01:09:01,439 actually, we're going to be in Sydney, so check that one out. 1219 01:09:01,760 --> 01:09:05,160 And last but not least, interlinks who to root. 1220 01:09:05,359 --> 01:09:08,960 Who to root? Now remember, I'm an idiot. 1221 01:09:09,200 --> 01:09:11,680 JD is an idiot. If you thought any of this was 1222 01:09:11,680 --> 01:09:14,279 anything other than entertainment, you're an idiot 1223 01:09:14,560 --> 01:09:15,760 and you need to read out a disclaimer.