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Righto money miners. 
The China commodity theme will 

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continue in this episode. 
We've got an absolute RIP 

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snorter coming in from Japan and
the theme of MMS being the 

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greatest mining contractor in 
Australia is something that will

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never end, especially 
considering they got gear ready 

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to go to move dirt right now. 
Like there's like you think open

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pit, you think MMS goes 
together? 

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You bloody need to know like a 
glove. 

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Don't This could be the last 
last in our brief series. 

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Endeavour to China for a little 
while, Maddie, but we'll be 

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back. 
Alright mate, we're as many 

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episodes as people in the 
country. 

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It's bloody, it's bloody great, 
but boys, I. 

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Think we could we could brand 
this one with an Indian flag? 

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Just about yes. 
Strong, strong pick. 

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Yeah, right. 
So today, money more as we have 

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Ian Roper from Asterisk 
Advisory, previously worked, but

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he's CLSI Macquarie mate. 
He covers bulks, base metals, 

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new energy, materials and live 
from Tokyo, probably possibly 

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the greatest city in the world. 
Mate, welcome onto the show. 

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Cheers. 
Yeah, yeah, certainly the good 

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city, yeah. 
Just don't mind lifting up a bit

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of sashimi while you're there 
mate, just to keep a bit of a 

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Japanese feel to it. 
Take out for you here. 

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Boys, you want to give a bit of 
an intro of what today's episode

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will all be about? 
Yeah, let's let's RIP in. 

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So Maddie, as you know, we've 
been going on a bit of a, a 

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China venture, a bit of a 
commodities broader sort of 

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venture, given all the the 
stimulus chat that we've seen in

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in recent weeks. 
And this is another one, Ian's 

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been recommended to us by an 
Aussie fund manager. 

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So thought we'd get in touch and
get the over overview from a 

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commodity strategist and that is
very much Ian's background. 

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So where I want to start the 
conversation, Ian, is the 

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stimulus, it's the, it's the 
elephant in the room, the one we

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have to kind of talk about. 
And you told me when we were 

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chatting before the call that 
you'd, you'd had a bit of a, a 

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pick on China prior to the year 
starting. 

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And then there was a bit of 
sentiment and perhaps sentiment 

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changing in and around LME week 
last week or the week before. 

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So I'm keen to hear what you're 
kind of picking up, how the the 

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mood is on the back of the 
stimulus that we've seen in 

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China. 
Yeah. 

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So, so China's had a really 
tough year this year. 

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It started at the end of last 
year. 

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She made it very clear that it's
unhappy local governments have 

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just been spending too much 
money, too heavily indebted. 

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So there was a big clamp down on
local government debt spending 

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etcetera, LGF, ES, especially 
the off balance sheet lending 

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they were using to fund a lot of
infrastructure. 

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So there's one key data series I
look at, which is the newly 

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signed construction contracts 
quarterly data series that was 

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running down 5 trillion RMB, 
about 10% year on year in Q4 

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last year. 
And that was a very clear 

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indication that the 
infrastructure this year was was

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just going to be down sharply. 
Yeah. 

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So cement demands been running 
down double digits all year, 

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steel demands down about 5%. 
You know, what I call the old 

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economy in China has really been
struggling, but that's not the 

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whole picture for China. 
You know, backs in the 2000s, a 

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super cycle, it's a rising tide 
lifted all boats, right? 

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Whereas now China's really 
seeing a lot of divergent 

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because you've got the old 
economy, housing, 

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infrastructure, yes, very, very 
weak. 

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They've just been in decline for
the last few years. 

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That's where things like like 
steel demand have suffered 

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especially, but also we've got 
the new economy direct, China's 

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massive investment in EVs, in 
renewable energy. 

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And that's where the base metal 
demand is. 

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And that's why you're seeing 
this divergent where steel 

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demand running down 5% this 
year, but aluminium consumption 

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is still growing 5%. 
Copper demand is going to be up 

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3 or 4%. 
So you've got a real kind of 

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split in China between old and 
new. 

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And that all comes back to to 
XI's version of of Chinese 

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modernisation as he calls it. 
She's new version of Chinese 

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modernisation, which is that she
wants the Chinese to invest 

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heavily on the technology side 
and upgrading manufacturing, 

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going high end, leading the 
world in all the technologies, 

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EVs, etcetera. 
And you see they're doing a good

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job on that, whereas the old 
economy, you know that that's 

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just something that they're not 
focused on so. 

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Ian, given given your role, 
speaking with plenty of 

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institutions out there, what 
what are the the traders in and 

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around Asia making of the 
stimulus? 

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So there's still a lot of 
scepticism about the stimulus. 

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So, yeah, China is now very 
different to what it used to be,

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right? 
In the old days, Beijing would 

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say stimulus and everyone would 
jump and off to the races. 

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You know, 2000 and nine, 2016 
markets moved very rapidly. 

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This time around, quite 
different now, I'd say the 

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Chinese peoples have been very 
depressed since COVID basically.

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You've had a number of different
angles there. 

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Not least she's the corruption 
clamped down, right, making life

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more uncertain, especially for 
entrepreneurs and business 

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people, finance people. 
So that's kind of hit a lot of 

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investigative confidence within 
China, both on the manufacturing

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side, investing side. 
For the last 20 years, people 

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have been used to wage growth. 
You know, jobs were plentiful. 

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You know, people were getting 
richer all the time. 

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That's really kind of come to an
end with the downturn we've had 

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since 2020 and all the COVID 
restrictions. 

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And so that's where you've got a
lot of people that are feeling, 

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you know, my house price is not 
going up anymore, wage incomes 

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growth not there anymore. 
And that's why consumers have 

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been miserable and not spending 
and therefore manufacturers have

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been miserable and not investing
in new manufacturing either. 

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So that's the kind of weakness 
we've been suffering from really

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since since COVID. 
And Beijing's been trying to 

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cheer people up for the last 
couple of years. 

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And that's where it's been, you 
know, so different to previously

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that the word stimulus has been 
too overused now that we've seen

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numerous little stimuli, I 
suppose, over the over the last 

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couple of years. 
And they're always tweaking 

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housing restrictions and trying 
to loosen things at the margin. 

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And then it just falls flat. 
You know, it's not enough to get

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things moving. 
So I've been very dismissive of 

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the stimulus headlines that 
we've seen through the year 

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until this latest one at the end
of September. 

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And this really is a shift 
change. 

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To me, this is very clearly a 
strong change in direction where

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Beijing's just said, look, 
growth is just too weak now. 

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Consumers are too miserable. 
They're not spending, 

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manufacturers are not investing.
And we're really struggling to 

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hit the targets here. 
So yes, the green economy is 

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doing really well, but we still 
need the consumers to be 

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spending. 
We still need the manufacturers 

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to be investing and having a 
more optimistic outlook. 

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So you've really seen seen a big
shift. 

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But at the same time, they're 
still constrained by she's kind 

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of reluctance to go too heavy on
the leverage side of things. 

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So this is not like old 
fashioned stimulus about the 

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gloves are off, you know, just 
money and spend on anything. 

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So they're they're she's still 
determined not to do a bridges 

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to nowhere policy, right. 
They're not just going to build 

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infrastructure for 
infrastructure's sake. 

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It has to be show some kind of 
economic return still and the 

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housing market, that's the big 
issue. 

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So one fantastic step on the 
housing market since China 

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privatised the housing market in
1999. 

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You know, prior to that it was 
all communism. 

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It was all allocated housing. 
It's only been a private market 

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since 1999. 
They've actually built more than

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one apartment for every urban 
family in 25 years, right? 

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That's ridiculous. 
You know, some of us live in 100

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year old houses in the rest of 
the world. 

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China's literally built the 
entire urban housing stock in 25

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years. 
So that's why the policy for the

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last few years has been, Oh 
dear, look at the demographics. 

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We've built far too much 
already. 

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We'd better stop building it. 
We can't continue at this kind 

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of pace. 
So it's about better utilising 

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what they've got and not 
building so many new ones. 

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So that's why you've seen such a
drop off in in housing in a new 

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new housing constructions are 
running at about 1/3 of the peak

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levels in the late twenty 10s. 
So that's again something that's

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not going to come back, right. 
So they want to stimulate the 

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consumers. 
They want to get the 

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manufacturers on the 
entrepreneurs investing and 

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people feeling good. 
But she's still reluctant to let

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the local governments spend more
money recklessly to boost the 

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housing market and get 
developers building more 

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apartments. 
You know, those bits of the old 

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economy are still things that 
they're holding back there. 

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And that's where you're getting 
kind of this these mixed 

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conceptions and kind of lack of 
belief in stimulus where a lot 

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of people are still looking for 
the old fashioned stimulus 

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infrastructure and housing. 
It's just not happening. 

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Whereas the kind of this new 
stimulus is all about trying to 

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get confidence back. 
And personally, I think they'll 

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get there. 
They'll they'll be able to raise

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the confidence. 
You will see consumers coming 

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out now spending more money. 
Hopefully we'll see a pick up in

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investment levels domestically 
and then for metals that could 

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could well trigger a restocking 
cycle. 

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That would be the real upside 
for metals prices. 

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If you then get all of the 
manufacturers restocking, you 

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then get the traders restocking.
You get a lot of belief and 

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excitement heading into Chinese 
New Year next year that, Oh 

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yeah, 2025 is going to be much 
better than 2024 and off to the 

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races we go. 
When when you say consumer, are 

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you referring to Chinese 
consumers or international 

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consumers? 
Oh, no, Chinese consumers, yeah.

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So obviously one of the. 
Yeah, sorry. 

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So if that's the case, like how 
much of China is made up of the 

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the low income Chinese part of 
the population, that is 

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obviously why everything is so 
cheap to buy here because of the

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cheap labour. 
How much of that is made up, how

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much of China is made up of that
group? 

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And if so, like as I assume they
can't spend much more because 

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they earn nothing so. 
Yeah, I mean, the, the, the big 

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issue since COVID is that the 
savings rates are up so much, 

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00:10:02,200 --> 00:10:03,840
right? 
Because, yeah, for the last 20 

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years, you have rising house 
prices. 

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00:10:05,640 --> 00:10:08,320
Why is it rising wage growth? 
People felt they were getting 

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richer and happy to spend. 
And then since COVID, you've 

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seen, all you've seen is the 
savings rates going up and up 

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00:10:14,200 --> 00:10:17,200
and up because people are just 
have a lack of belief in the 

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future. 
They don't see that they're 

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00:10:18,800 --> 00:10:20,200
going to be better off in five 
years. 

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00:10:20,200 --> 00:10:22,600
So everyone's kind of hoarding 
cash now. 

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00:10:22,600 --> 00:10:25,440
The big problems in China that 
you have a structurally the lack

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of a safety net, right, that 
most of the medical system is 

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still private, so you've got to 
save money in case you get some 

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nasty disease. 
Most of the education system, 

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you need a lot of private money 
as well for, for all the extra, 

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you know, tutoring and different
schools and things. 

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00:10:41,360 --> 00:10:44,720
So there's a lot of reasons why 
the Chinese always been very 

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conservative and tend to save 
very heavily for a rainy day. 

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00:10:49,400 --> 00:10:52,720
So there's two aspects that 
Beijing can look at to try and 

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00:10:52,720 --> 00:10:55,400
get the consumer spending again.
Number one is obviously the 

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confidence factor of get them 
believing that, you know, the 

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00:10:58,720 --> 00:11:01,480
economy will be good, you will 
be able to make more money next 

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00:11:01,480 --> 00:11:03,840
year. 
So feel free to to go out and 

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00:11:03,840 --> 00:11:07,040
spend today. 
And the other thing is, is 

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00:11:07,040 --> 00:11:10,160
potentially reforms around 
pensions, health care, 

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00:11:10,400 --> 00:11:14,080
education, who Co reform, you 
know, the registration system, 

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00:11:14,080 --> 00:11:15,880
whether you're in the city or 
the countryside. 

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00:11:16,600 --> 00:11:19,120
So if they can strengthen some 
of the social safety net, that's

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00:11:19,120 --> 00:11:21,800
certainly something to watch out
for is more structural reforms 

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00:11:21,800 --> 00:11:23,720
that could try and get the 
consumer spending more. 

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00:11:24,720 --> 00:11:28,640
Ian, you, you spoke about making
the most of the the property 

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00:11:28,640 --> 00:11:31,320
that they've got and that kind 
of doesn't, doesn't sound too 

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00:11:31,520 --> 00:11:34,560
great for overall demand for 
commodities. 

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00:11:34,560 --> 00:11:37,160
How are you thinking about that?
Yeah. 

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00:11:37,200 --> 00:11:40,520
So start of the year, I said 
that I'm very bearish on on the 

227
00:11:40,520 --> 00:11:42,440
old economy, on infrastructure, 
on housing. 

228
00:11:42,440 --> 00:11:46,800
I think steel demand will be 
down 3% this year, but I still 

229
00:11:46,800 --> 00:11:50,040
think that copper and aluminium 
demand will be +3 or so because 

230
00:11:50,040 --> 00:11:54,160
the green economy is doing. 
And that's something which even 

231
00:11:54,160 --> 00:11:57,560
with the stimulus coming 
through, I still maintain those 

232
00:11:57,680 --> 00:12:00,800
that split in the economy will 
maintain. 

233
00:12:00,800 --> 00:12:03,160
And we'll see a lot of 
differentiation between 

234
00:12:03,160 --> 00:12:06,240
different kind of metals 
consumption in the coming years.

235
00:12:06,440 --> 00:12:10,520
So yes, I don't see a rebound in
steel demand for example, next 

236
00:12:10,520 --> 00:12:11,480
year. 
I think, you know, 

237
00:12:12,200 --> 00:12:15,280
infrastructure is probably not 
going to have a similar drop to 

238
00:12:15,280 --> 00:12:17,800
this year, probably come starts 
to flatten out. 

239
00:12:17,920 --> 00:12:21,000
Equally housing's probably not 
taking another leg down now, but

240
00:12:21,000 --> 00:12:24,200
it's unlikely to recover. 
So steel demand trajectory 

241
00:12:24,240 --> 00:12:28,000
absolutely doesn't look very 
impressive, but the renewables 

242
00:12:28,000 --> 00:12:31,400
build out, the EVs roll out. 
And then, yeah, in terms of 

243
00:12:31,400 --> 00:12:34,440
housing stimulus that you are 
seeing is all about completions.

244
00:12:34,880 --> 00:12:37,600
It's about buying up unsold 
units for social housing or 

245
00:12:37,600 --> 00:12:40,200
renovating old units. 
So that still means, you know, 

246
00:12:40,200 --> 00:12:43,680
rewiring, installing new 
appliances, etcetera, maybe 

247
00:12:43,680 --> 00:12:45,360
putting solar panels on the 
roofs. 

248
00:12:46,320 --> 00:12:47,920
So there's still a lot of metals
demand. 

249
00:12:48,040 --> 00:12:50,960
It's just it's not steel. 
It's going to be more aluminium,

250
00:12:51,080 --> 00:12:53,640
copper, that kind of thing. 
Yeah, it's very, very 

251
00:12:53,640 --> 00:12:57,080
interesting. 
The whole, you know, consumer 

252
00:12:57,080 --> 00:13:00,640
stimulus in China, if you think 
of it from a like an Australian 

253
00:13:00,640 --> 00:13:06,880
landscape, don't think we need 
any consumer stimulus for mining

254
00:13:06,880 --> 00:13:09,800
companies to know that Grounded 
needs to build the mining camp. 

255
00:13:10,320 --> 00:13:11,600
Well, that's what you don't 
need. 

256
00:13:11,880 --> 00:13:15,040
Like they just know that is the 
right thing to do. 

257
00:13:15,040 --> 00:13:18,440
Like as we described last week, 
like just from the new law that 

258
00:13:18,960 --> 00:13:21,720
you have to like have a builder 
with Sicilian background to know

259
00:13:21,720 --> 00:13:24,280
that you're going to get the 
quality, the longevity, the 

260
00:13:24,280 --> 00:13:27,240
expertise for any piece of 
infrastructure on your mind 

261
00:13:27,240 --> 00:13:29,200
site. 
And that would be limited to 

262
00:13:29,200 --> 00:13:32,360
Grounded only. 
You've seen pictures of these 

263
00:13:32,360 --> 00:13:34,120
camps, Maddie. 
They are the worst. 

264
00:13:34,840 --> 00:13:36,720
Jesus. 
Cross their bloody. 

265
00:13:36,880 --> 00:13:40,080
Extra room like my great gym 
facilities. 

266
00:13:40,400 --> 00:13:44,680
I just don't think you can beat 
what can be built by the team at

267
00:13:44,680 --> 00:13:46,520
Grounded. 
I'd actually say they. 

268
00:13:46,640 --> 00:13:50,040
Contacted the Coburn local 
council and to get permission to

269
00:13:50,040 --> 00:13:53,280
knock down my house and get a 
grounded camp in to replace it 

270
00:13:53,320 --> 00:13:55,520
because they're just even better
than my house. 

271
00:13:55,640 --> 00:14:00,360
Yeah, it's it's, that is just 
the the quality of craftsmanship

272
00:14:01,240 --> 00:14:05,120
and the attention to detail, 
Travis, that Paul Natali and the

273
00:14:05,120 --> 00:14:07,880
grounded team put towards these 
mining camps is just 

274
00:14:07,880 --> 00:14:10,400
unparalleled in the industry. 
So like. 

275
00:14:10,640 --> 00:14:12,720
Get yourself a Crown Plaza out 
in the Bush. 

276
00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:16,000
Oh mate, if you could tower 
Hilton up it wouldn't even be as

277
00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:19,520
good as a grounded camp. 
So mate, and we give you direct 

278
00:14:19,520 --> 00:14:23,200
access to Paul with his email in
the show notes. 

279
00:14:23,200 --> 00:14:26,720
Flick him a message and ask for 
a bloody best mining camp in the

280
00:14:26,720 --> 00:14:31,240
history of mining and camps. 
One of the reasons that you're 

281
00:14:32,120 --> 00:14:35,840
that the the consumer has such 
sort of negative sentiment 

282
00:14:35,960 --> 00:14:38,840
towards, you know, investing 
domestically is is because a lot

283
00:14:38,840 --> 00:14:41,680
of the policy settings have 
actually created an environment 

284
00:14:41,680 --> 00:14:46,280
where these, you know, these 
downstream, you know, businesses

285
00:14:46,760 --> 00:14:50,040
are unprofitable because they 
they have to run kind of under 

286
00:14:50,040 --> 00:14:53,360
capacity or utilisation. 
There's too many of them that 

287
00:14:53,360 --> 00:14:55,560
exist because the local 
governments are all have all 

288
00:14:55,560 --> 00:14:59,440
have their own steel mill, have 
their own yeah, lithium refinery

289
00:14:59,760 --> 00:15:02,520
in those sort of sensors and 
hence kind of don't have the 

290
00:15:02,520 --> 00:15:06,120
efficiencies and aren't 
necessarily very profitable. 

291
00:15:06,560 --> 00:15:09,640
But how do you think about the 
risk that the policy setting 

292
00:15:09,880 --> 00:15:14,880
will actually result in fewer 
number of remaining steel mills 

293
00:15:14,880 --> 00:15:19,440
actually being actually 
operating and a focus on 

294
00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:23,120
profitability in that in that 
downstream again and the 

295
00:15:23,120 --> 00:15:25,520
implications of that could have 
for example in the iron ore 

296
00:15:25,520 --> 00:15:27,840
market? 
Yeah, Well, that's certainly 

297
00:15:27,840 --> 00:15:30,760
something that's that's some 
discussion at the moment around 

298
00:15:30,760 --> 00:15:33,360
should there be another wave of 
kind of supply cyber falls, 

299
00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:35,200
right. 
That was very successful there, 

300
00:15:35,200 --> 00:15:38,440
2016, 1718. 
And so you saw a lot of kind of 

301
00:15:38,440 --> 00:15:41,960
redundant capacity being closed 
and actually steel mills had had

302
00:15:41,960 --> 00:15:44,720
good margins there and your 
commodity prices were generally 

303
00:15:44,720 --> 00:15:47,000
higher. 
So there's a lot of people in 

304
00:15:47,000 --> 00:15:49,840
the industry who are calling for
same again, you know, let's 

305
00:15:49,840 --> 00:15:51,560
let's have another round of 
cuts. 

306
00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:55,360
But at the same time, the 
central government's conflicted 

307
00:15:55,360 --> 00:15:58,560
of, of, you know, on the one 
hand, they're willing to take 

308
00:15:58,560 --> 00:16:00,360
the pain for the longer term 
gain. 

309
00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:03,280
You know, we're not short term 
kind of politicians just looking

310
00:16:03,280 --> 00:16:05,120
for a, for a good story for one 
or two years. 

311
00:16:05,120 --> 00:16:06,760
We're trying to be structurally 
sound here. 

312
00:16:06,760 --> 00:16:11,840
We don't want too much debt and 
too much, too much negativity 

313
00:16:11,840 --> 00:16:14,800
overhanging the economy. 
But on the other hand, they're 

314
00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:17,080
showing a real reluctance to 
take too much pain. 

315
00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:20,560
So you've got huge number of 
zombie companies in China, 

316
00:16:20,640 --> 00:16:22,800
right? 
And the triple R cuts, the 

317
00:16:22,800 --> 00:16:26,080
interest rate cuts we saw for 
the banks in this stimulus that 

318
00:16:26,080 --> 00:16:29,120
read more like a bank bailout 
because the banks are clearly 

319
00:16:29,120 --> 00:16:31,800
struggling with a lot of 
unrealised MPLS and just having 

320
00:16:31,800 --> 00:16:35,240
to endlessly roll over debts. 
And and you know, the 

321
00:16:35,240 --> 00:16:40,040
government's reluctant to push a
lot of companies to the end edge

322
00:16:40,040 --> 00:16:43,480
and actually deal with the 
redundancies and the resulting 

323
00:16:43,480 --> 00:16:46,760
problems because there's kind of
too much pain from that sense 

324
00:16:47,120 --> 00:16:49,840
that was would result there. 
So they really start between a 

325
00:16:49,840 --> 00:16:52,080
rock and a hard place at the 
moment. 

326
00:16:52,800 --> 00:16:55,400
But I do think there there's 
decent odds that perhaps you 

327
00:16:55,400 --> 00:16:58,760
will see renewed talk of things 
like supply side reforms and 

328
00:16:59,080 --> 00:17:02,240
push to perhaps close capacity 
in some of the Heavy Industries 

329
00:17:02,240 --> 00:17:05,480
like steel. 
And certainly the talk of that 

330
00:17:05,480 --> 00:17:09,200
could help help prices and kind 
of people heart back to the good

331
00:17:09,200 --> 00:17:12,079
old days of supply side reform 
and they were making big margins

332
00:17:12,079 --> 00:17:14,280
and things. 
So the industry itself is 

333
00:17:14,280 --> 00:17:19,000
certainly encouraging that talk.
Have you got an explicit view on

334
00:17:19,000 --> 00:17:22,920
where you see iron ore over the 
next 135 years? 

335
00:17:25,200 --> 00:17:27,680
Well, iron ore has been a real 
conundrum this year. 

336
00:17:27,680 --> 00:17:30,040
I mean you've seen very strong 
supply growth right now. 

337
00:17:30,320 --> 00:17:34,320
Imports in China are going to be
up 60 or 70 million tonnes this 

338
00:17:34,320 --> 00:17:37,120
year. 
India's annualising up from from

339
00:17:37,120 --> 00:17:40,880
40 odd million last year to 60. 
Plus Brazil's had a good year. 

340
00:17:41,080 --> 00:17:43,440
Australian exports are up 
decently as well. 

341
00:17:43,440 --> 00:17:45,720
You've still got some new supply
coming in Onslow and such 

342
00:17:45,720 --> 00:17:48,400
ramping up. 
So there's been plenty of iron 

343
00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:50,840
ore supply. 
And yet steel demand in China 

344
00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:53,160
has been running down about 5% 
this year. 

345
00:17:53,400 --> 00:17:55,920
Now, obviously they've been 
exporting a bit more steel, so 

346
00:17:55,920 --> 00:17:58,760
keeping the steel production not
quite down that much. 

347
00:17:58,760 --> 00:18:01,280
But still the iron ore port 
inventures have been rising 

348
00:18:01,680 --> 00:18:04,120
throughout the year. 
There's no shortage of iron ore.

349
00:18:04,480 --> 00:18:07,000
And it's, it's, you know, 
amazing to me how the price 

350
00:18:07,000 --> 00:18:09,600
hasn't been weaker. 
I've been calling for the price 

351
00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:13,680
to fall into kind of the 80s all
year because you know, oil 

352
00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:16,960
prices are quite low, freight 
rates are not that high and the 

353
00:18:16,960 --> 00:18:19,640
grade discounts are very narrow.
That's the most important thing 

354
00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:22,440
for the iron ore cost curve. 
Mills are not making money. 

355
00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:26,400
They're happy to buy low grade 
so that that essentially 

356
00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:28,760
suppresses the top of the cost 
curve, which is dominated by all

357
00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:32,320
the low grade suppliers. 
So from that perspective, you 

358
00:18:32,320 --> 00:18:34,880
know, I've been surprised iron 
ore's not be weaker. 

359
00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:37,680
And then of course on the back 
of stimulus, iron ore's the one 

360
00:18:37,680 --> 00:18:39,760
that's had the biggest move. 
Now the problem we have with the

361
00:18:39,760 --> 00:18:44,880
iron ore market is the price is 
just so dominated by this retail

362
00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:48,200
trading in Dalian, right. 
You look at the Met coal price, 

363
00:18:48,200 --> 00:18:50,760
that's entirely a physical 
market and a very liquid 1. 

364
00:18:50,760 --> 00:18:53,160
You look at the aluminium market
and that's entirely a physical 

365
00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:57,080
market and a very liquid 1. 
So those markets tend to be very

366
00:18:57,080 --> 00:19:01,640
depressed or or very kind of 
excited, but they definitely 

367
00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:05,680
reflect physical changes, 
whereas the iron ore market is 

368
00:19:05,680 --> 00:19:07,920
just just moves on hot air so 
much at the time. 

369
00:19:09,040 --> 00:19:12,320
And so that's why our iron ore 
went from $89.00 just before 

370
00:19:12,320 --> 00:19:15,800
stimulus was announced to 114 
within days. 

371
00:19:16,800 --> 00:19:19,280
And like I said, stimulus is not
adding steel demand, it's not 

372
00:19:19,280 --> 00:19:21,880
adding iron ore consumption. 
So that's just a complete 

373
00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:24,040
overreaction. 
Can you, can you peel into that 

374
00:19:24,040 --> 00:19:25,320
a bit? 
This is a comment I've heard a 

375
00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:28,040
couple of times as we ventured 
into the, you know, the, the 

376
00:19:28,040 --> 00:19:30,960
China kind of commentary. 
And that's the extent to which 

377
00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:35,800
there is like Chinese retail 
money that massively influences 

378
00:19:36,040 --> 00:19:38,680
kind of the the short term 
gyrations of some of these like 

379
00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:42,520
pretty, pretty hefty markets 
that grab headlines here in in 

380
00:19:42,520 --> 00:19:44,920
the West. 
Yeah. 

381
00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:47,840
So I'm, I'm not too sure what 
the current numbers are on iron,

382
00:19:47,840 --> 00:19:50,520
but I remember a few interesting
comments over the years. 

383
00:19:50,520 --> 00:19:53,520
I mean, the average holding 
period on iron ore trades and 

384
00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:56,840
Danny Anne was like 2 hours for 
for a certain period. 

385
00:19:56,920 --> 00:19:58,720
You know it's a real day trading
market. 

386
00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:02,960
And there was more trading 
activity in the old days, 

387
00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:03,960
certainly. 
I don't know if it's still 

388
00:20:03,960 --> 00:20:06,240
current, but there used to be 
more trading activity in the 

389
00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:09,120
night session, you know, when 
the market would open in the 

390
00:20:09,120 --> 00:20:12,320
evening than during the day, 
which again, shows it's kind of,

391
00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:14,600
you know, retails people just 
trading. 

392
00:20:14,600 --> 00:20:16,720
And I don't know how many of 
them are trading drunk as well. 

393
00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:18,880
So that probably accounts for 
some of the generations. 

394
00:20:19,160 --> 00:20:20,600
Is this the futures? 
Market is. 

395
00:20:23,360 --> 00:20:25,520
Is this the futures market 
you're you're referring to? 

396
00:20:25,520 --> 00:20:27,440
Yeah, the Dalian Dalian 
exchange, yeah. 

397
00:20:29,200 --> 00:20:33,320
Wow, that's that's amazing. 
And and that's not seen in most 

398
00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:35,040
other commodities. 
Is that right? 

399
00:20:35,680 --> 00:20:37,720
It's extreme on, on, on all, 
yeah. 

400
00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:39,560
It's just Dino is just 
dominated. 

401
00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:42,600
You know, the Dalian volume is 
much, much greater than the SGX 

402
00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:46,560
volume, which is kind of like 
the the Western trading market. 

403
00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:49,520
But then even on the SGX volume,
I think an awful lot of that's 

404
00:20:49,520 --> 00:20:54,280
kind of Chinese arc trade as 
well following the Dalian moves.

405
00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:59,200
Whereas, yeah, when you look at 
the base metals, obviously LME 

406
00:20:59,320 --> 00:21:03,520
comics, they've still got 
massive volumes outside of the 

407
00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:06,400
SHFE market. 
And so that's where you tend to 

408
00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:08,840
see the base metals a less 
volatile because I'd say you've 

409
00:21:08,840 --> 00:21:12,840
got more international trading 
money that's offsetting any kind

410
00:21:12,840 --> 00:21:15,040
of retail in China. 
Whereas iron ore just doesn't 

411
00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:16,760
have an offset. 
You know, it's that Dalian 

412
00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:22,080
market just dominates. 
If if we change tech in India is

413
00:21:22,080 --> 00:21:24,840
a country that a lot of people 
have spoken about the, the sort 

414
00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:28,880
of cool narrative and you, you 
seem to hold that view as well. 

415
00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:32,240
Maybe I'll just give you a, a 
sort of broad angle to, to start

416
00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:34,880
with what you're thinking of 
India and then came to get into 

417
00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:38,360
METCO specifically. 
Yeah. 

418
00:21:38,360 --> 00:21:41,280
So when I was living in China in
the 2000s, you know, there were 

419
00:21:41,280 --> 00:21:44,240
all these bullish Chindia 
reports doing the rounds of, 

420
00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:46,720
hey, India's got a billion 
people that can follow China. 

421
00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:48,480
And I was always highly 
sceptical, right? 

422
00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:50,640
And I went to India a few times 
in the 2000s. 

423
00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:53,600
It's nothing like China and 
nothing could ever get done 

424
00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:56,040
there, right? 
It was kind of bureaucracy or 

425
00:21:56,360 --> 00:21:58,600
land access rights. 
So there are a lot of problems 

426
00:21:58,600 --> 00:22:02,120
where where just things didn't 
progress very quickly, power 

427
00:22:02,120 --> 00:22:06,080
availability, etcetera. 
Whereas post COVID and I'm 

428
00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:08,400
speaking to a lot of my India 
contacts and people doing 

429
00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:10,280
business there, but they were 
saying, well, things have really

430
00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:12,480
changed, you know, demands 
jumped up and looks really 

431
00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:15,120
sustainable. 
So I went there again last year 

432
00:22:15,120 --> 00:22:18,480
for the first time since 2009, 
completely transformed. 

433
00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:20,680
It's amazing. 
I think Mode has done quite a 

434
00:22:20,680 --> 00:22:25,040
few important key changes there.
Number one, he invested a lot in

435
00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:27,840
infrastructure early on. 
So India hasn't really suffered 

436
00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:31,240
blackouts, brownouts on the 
power side since about 2019. 

437
00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:34,720
Power supply is plentiful and 
they're taking the renewables 

438
00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:39,600
from something like 200 
gigawatts to 500 gigawatts by 

439
00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:42,920
the end of the decade, massive 
investment in that. 

440
00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:45,840
And they're still adding another
80 gigawatts of thermal power as

441
00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:47,880
well. 
So you've got huge investment in

442
00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:49,680
power. 
You've had big investment in 

443
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:53,320
airports, like flying around. 
It feels just just like, you 

444
00:22:53,320 --> 00:22:56,120
know, China or anywhere with 
modern airport facilities, 

445
00:22:56,120 --> 00:22:59,280
everything works much better, 
roads as well, ports. 

446
00:22:59,800 --> 00:23:04,200
So you've had a lot of 
infrastructure investment early 

447
00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:06,480
on as well. 
Modi did this cancellation of 

448
00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:09,160
all the banknotes when if you 
remember that, and they kind of 

449
00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:13,240
bought all the banknotes into 
the banking system and that's 

450
00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:15,720
helped to eliminate a lot of the
corruption because everyone has 

451
00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:18,680
bank accounts, a lot less cash 
oriented, digital money and 

452
00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:21,560
everything. 
A lot of the social handouts now

453
00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:24,240
or digital money will direct 
into people's bank, bank 

454
00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:27,160
accounts as well. 
And if you're paying everything 

455
00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:30,720
digitally, there's less room for
officials to be dipping their 

456
00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:33,680
hands in as well. 
Less cash being handled equally,

457
00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:36,680
digitisation of government. 
So they've streamlined a lot of 

458
00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:40,280
processes, a lot of the forms, 
documentation, everything now is

459
00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:41,440
on a system. 
It's online. 

460
00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:44,640
You're not actually going to a 
physical person needing a stamp 

461
00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:47,640
or a signature or something. 
Again, that's removing a level 

462
00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:51,200
of potential corruption, 
speeding up the processes with 

463
00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:53,720
the paperwork and everything, 
you know. 

464
00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:57,040
Yeah, bankruptcy reform, a bit 
of land access reform and stuff.

465
00:23:57,640 --> 00:24:00,360
And so India's got a number of 
key drivers now. 

466
00:24:00,360 --> 00:24:02,560
So they keep hiking the 
infrastructure budget. 

467
00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:04,880
I think they've raised the 
infrastructure budget 1/3 every 

468
00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:09,040
year for the last three years. 
This year it's only up 11% with 

469
00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:10,920
the with the budget being a bit 
more responsible. 

470
00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:13,600
But they've still got big plans 
on infrastructure. 

471
00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:15,960
They're going to electrify the 
entire rail network. 

472
00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:20,240
India is already starting to 
build a Japanese bullet train 

473
00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:22,000
network. 
It's the only countryside 

474
00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:24,840
country outside of Japan that's 
actually going to have bullet 

475
00:24:24,840 --> 00:24:28,000
trains, and I think the Japanese
government's lending quite a lot

476
00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:30,000
of the money for that at a state
level. 

477
00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:34,800
But yeah, the first one will be 
up in in 2026, so don't know. 

478
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:37,640
They have to culturally. 
No more sitting on the roof at 

479
00:24:37,640 --> 00:24:40,360
400 kilometres an hour. 
That'd be a bit of a change, but

480
00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:44,600
should be revolutionised. 
They're moving around India with

481
00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:49,000
bullet trains there, as I said, 
the renewable energy build out 

482
00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:52,400
as well, you know, going up to 
500 gigawatts by the end of the 

483
00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:54,880
decade. 
One of Modi's pledges in the 

484
00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:58,280
election was free power for all 
the rural households. 

485
00:24:58,280 --> 00:25:00,760
So they've already started a 
programme this year of 10 

486
00:25:00,760 --> 00:25:03,600
million rural houses getting 
free solar installations. 

487
00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:05,720
So people have got free access 
to power. 

488
00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:08,880
And then you could charge your 
electric bike or something as 

489
00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:13,000
well for free. 
I'd say big plans on the 

490
00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:15,480
infrastructure side and any 
other thing that mood is doing a

491
00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:17,720
great job of trying to attract 
all the FDI. 

492
00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:21,760
So saying to people, why don't 
you move your factories out of 

493
00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:25,200
China, come to India, so going 
to the the freedom loving 

494
00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:27,800
democracies and say, hey, we're 
a freedom loving democracy. 

495
00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:30,840
You should be investing here for
for security of supply. 

496
00:25:30,840 --> 00:25:33,640
And then of course mode is at 
the BRICS conferences as well. 

497
00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:36,760
Good friends with the BRICS guys
get them to invest as well. 

498
00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:40,080
So he's doing a good job of kind
of being mates with everyone at 

499
00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:42,480
the moment and trying to attract
investment from everywhere. 

500
00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:45,880
So that's where India's really 
interesting, because India 

501
00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:48,320
doesn't really have much of a 
manufacturing base at the 

502
00:25:48,320 --> 00:25:50,600
moment. 
I believe India only produces 

503
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:54,000
about 2% of global goods and 
consumes about 4%. 

504
00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:57,160
But Mode is really trying to 
attract all this investment with

505
00:25:57,160 --> 00:25:59,600
this Made in India scheme. 
And you're seeing a lot of big 

506
00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:02,440
companies starting to put 
factories in India, big 

507
00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:04,200
government subsidies encouraging
that. 

508
00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:07,720
So yeah, you've basically got 
the infrastructure side, the 

509
00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:11,320
green energy side and the 
manufacturing side all being 

510
00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:14,200
built out. 
And, and you put that together 

511
00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:17,080
and, and it's giving very strong
growth rates for commodities 

512
00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:19,400
demand. 
So if you think of India versus 

513
00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:24,240
China today for steel, you know,
India's 140 million tonnes of 

514
00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:27,960
steel production versus China at
a billion, it's about 15% of the

515
00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:30,000
size. 
It's growing at about 10% a 

516
00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:31,800
year. 
Whereas the base metals are more

517
00:26:31,800 --> 00:26:33,560
interesting things like copper 
and aluminium. 

518
00:26:34,360 --> 00:26:37,960
India's only about a tenth of 
the size of China, but it's 

519
00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:41,400
growing at a 15% kega, which 
looks very sustainable. 

520
00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:45,800
So if you think of that for the 
world, you know, China's 50% of 

521
00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:49,400
global copper demand growing at 
3% a year, then that gives us 

522
00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:51,800
what, 1 1/2 basis points of 
global growth. 

523
00:26:52,560 --> 00:26:56,880
Whereas India is only 5% of the 
world, but growing at 15% a 

524
00:26:56,880 --> 00:26:59,920
year, that's giving us 75 basis 
points of global growth. 

525
00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:03,760
So India actually in absolute 
tonnage terms is about half the 

526
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:06,840
size of China already on an 
incremental annual basis. 

527
00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:09,840
So it's not just that it's a 
nice tailwind for commodities. 

528
00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:11,840
I think you can really start to 
make a difference now. 

529
00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:18,480
Yeah, speaking like about the 
rise of India, I guess who, who 

530
00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:24,120
do you think is going to rise 
first out of India and race, 

531
00:27:24,120 --> 00:27:26,400
botany and Australian earthworks
and haulage? 

532
00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:29,680
Race botany's already already 
risen, You know, India's still 

533
00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:34,000
rising well. 
Because since IEH is like 

534
00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:38,360
anytime expiration V2 like 
anytime expiration, I'd call 

535
00:27:38,360 --> 00:27:41,160
China and then. 
Race India. 

536
00:27:41,240 --> 00:27:44,760
Race and IEH are probably going 
to be the India which probably 

537
00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:46,960
will surpass China. 
Rising at a faster rate. 

538
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:48,640
Yeah, yeah. 
Wouldn't you think, JD? 

539
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:52,520
I think you've hit the nail on 
the head there mate. 

540
00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:56,200
The the way I say the vertically
integrated relationship between 

541
00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:58,800
anytime exploration in 
Australian earthworks and 

542
00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:02,280
haulage like Reese is the cake. 
Sheamus is the cherry on top. 

543
00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:08,360
That's like like between the 
earthworks haulage bloody that 

544
00:28:08,360 --> 00:28:13,120
can work absolutely remote as 
like it's just bat shit crazy 

545
00:28:13,120 --> 00:28:16,680
how remote these guys can work 
unsupervised with any time 

546
00:28:16,680 --> 00:28:19,920
providing the field he's in G OS
to oversee the earthworks, the 

547
00:28:19,920 --> 00:28:23,720
rehabilitation, the damn 
building all with the expertise 

548
00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:28,760
of races decades worth of bloody
earthworks experience. 

549
00:28:29,360 --> 00:28:32,440
You just I hope you got the 
phone in your hand now. 

550
00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:35,680
His numbers in the show notes. 
Just like India, Maddie, it's 

551
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:37,440
one you don't want to miss mate.
Just give him a call. 

552
00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:39,560
He is the Tendulkar of 
earthworks. 

553
00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:42,960
I think the the people who've 
been like a bit, you know, 

554
00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:46,160
trepidatious about certain 
commodity markets point to the 

555
00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:49,160
growth of India as as sort of 
filling a gap that that, you 

556
00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:52,200
know, China as China's demand 
might sort of, you know, ease in

557
00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:54,320
certain areas. 
Is it as simple as, you know, 

558
00:28:54,320 --> 00:28:57,040
they seamlessly fill a gap or, 
you know, do you think you kind 

559
00:28:57,040 --> 00:29:00,880
of have pretty substantial 
volatility in in between where 

560
00:29:00,920 --> 00:29:02,160
you know things could get a bit 
dicey? 

561
00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:05,640
I think it's different for 
different commodities, right? 

562
00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:09,160
So look, the biggest kind of 
beneficiary of the Chinese 

563
00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:12,440
growth obviously was iron ore 
because China just geologically 

564
00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:15,520
doesn't have much hematite. 
Iron ore had to rely on high 

565
00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:18,560
cost magnetite and that's where 
it just became so big on the 

566
00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:22,760
iron ore import side of things. 
Whereas for for India, it's it's

567
00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:25,080
all about met coal, right? 
India has an abundance of iron 

568
00:29:25,080 --> 00:29:29,840
ore, has an abundance of thermal
coal will be poor quality, but 

569
00:29:29,840 --> 00:29:33,440
it has next to no met coal. 
So for commodities like met 

570
00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:36,520
coal, India is already the 
biggest importer in the world, 

571
00:29:36,520 --> 00:29:39,680
surpassed Japan a few years ago,
70 million tonnes a year out of 

572
00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:41,720
a global market of about 300 
million. 

573
00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:46,400
But India is going to double its
blast furnace steel capacity by 

574
00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:49,960
the end of the decade. 
So the met coal imports are 

575
00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:53,600
going to be huge, potentially 
even even with the green steel 

576
00:29:53,600 --> 00:29:58,000
revolution going on in Europe, 
North America, North East Asia, 

577
00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:00,960
where companies are looking at 
closing blast furnaces and 

578
00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:04,560
opening Eafs or kind of green 
steel basis. 

579
00:30:04,800 --> 00:30:08,880
I still think the global met 
coal demand grows over 20% in 

580
00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:11,840
the next 5 years with very 
little supply additions. 

581
00:30:11,840 --> 00:30:14,840
So that's where met coal is a 
massive beneficiary of the India

582
00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:17,800
story. 
Equally, copper, India doesn't 

583
00:30:17,800 --> 00:30:21,960
have much copper geologically, 
so it's going to be a big 

584
00:30:21,960 --> 00:30:25,120
importer of copper as well. 
I just had Adani just switched 

585
00:30:25,120 --> 00:30:28,280
on the world's largest copper 
smelter earlier this year, half 

586
00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:31,080
a million tonnes a year. 
That's partly why copper TCS are

587
00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:34,360
so low, because India's taking a
lot of the copper concentrates 

588
00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:38,280
away from China this year. 
Aluminium as well. 

589
00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:41,880
At the moment, India's a big 
exporter of aluminium primary 

590
00:30:41,880 --> 00:30:44,040
and then imports a lot of 
aluminium products. 

591
00:30:44,360 --> 00:30:46,480
But again, you know, the 
aluminium demand growth means 

592
00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:48,760
they'll, they'll, they'll be 
consuming a lot more of that as 

593
00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:51,400
well. 
So it's a different story for 

594
00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:52,880
different commodities, I think 
for India. 

595
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:57,600
Just on, on copper there, Ian, 
we've seen a pretty volatile 

596
00:30:57,600 --> 00:31:01,880
year in copper prices in in part
because of the the changes in 

597
00:31:01,880 --> 00:31:06,400
TCRCS and how they've just 
really been been crunched over 

598
00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:09,680
2024. 
Have you got insight on, on that

599
00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:11,120
sort of trend? 
Is that something you expect to 

600
00:31:11,120 --> 00:31:12,960
keep going for the for the 
foreseeable? 

601
00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:15,480
Yeah. 
So there's definitely some 

602
00:31:15,480 --> 00:31:17,760
interesting things going on in 
the copper market this year. 

603
00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:20,920
So normally we look at the TCS 
as a good lead on refined 

604
00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:23,200
prices. 
And yeah, if the TCS are tight, 

605
00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:25,920
then that means surely the the 
refined market's going to 

606
00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:27,840
tighten up later on because 
there must be a lack of 

607
00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:31,200
concentrate to produce the 
refined copper this year. 

608
00:31:31,200 --> 00:31:32,680
That's not quite come true, 
right. 

609
00:31:32,720 --> 00:31:35,800
It's a little bit more of an 
issue if we had a number of ex 

610
00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:39,040
China smelters coming through. 
So, yeah, we've got India, this 

611
00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:41,200
half million Tadani ones 
starting up. 

612
00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:45,360
Ivanhoe started the smelter in 
their African project. 

613
00:31:45,640 --> 00:31:48,360
Grasberg's been trying to start 
the smelter in Indonesia or 

614
00:31:48,360 --> 00:31:50,160
their corset that's been having 
problems. 

615
00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:53,360
And there's another smelter that
started up in Chile this year as

616
00:31:53,360 --> 00:31:55,560
well. 
So we've only got global mine 

617
00:31:55,560 --> 00:31:59,840
supply growth this year anyway 
of 2 1/2, maybe 3% globally. 

618
00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:03,160
But we've got a lot more smelter
additions outside of China. 

619
00:32:03,360 --> 00:32:05,760
And that's meant that there's 
just a lot less concentrate 

620
00:32:05,760 --> 00:32:09,080
available for the Chinese 
market, which also has its own 

621
00:32:09,080 --> 00:32:12,120
smelter additions this year. 
So that's where the concentrates

622
00:32:12,120 --> 00:32:16,960
have gone extremely tight. 
And you know, the TCS, spot TCS 

623
00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:18,800
even went negative for a period.
And you're like, well, how's 

624
00:32:18,800 --> 00:32:20,800
that possible? 
You know, how can spot TC be 

625
00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:23,440
negative? 
So the other issue from the the 

626
00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:28,440
smelters perspective, of course,
is, is the, the byproducts, 

627
00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:30,800
things like gold, right? 
The gold credits for some of 

628
00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:33,440
them with gold prices being as 
high as they are. 

629
00:32:33,440 --> 00:32:35,560
And one of the Chinese copper 
smelters was telling me every 

630
00:32:35,560 --> 00:32:40,040
$100.00 an ounce on gold is 
about $10 on the TC for some of 

631
00:32:40,040 --> 00:32:43,120
the concentrate supplies with 
decent gold content. 

632
00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:46,080
So that's another reason why the
Chinese are just paying 

633
00:32:46,080 --> 00:32:52,120
ridiculously low TCS for, for to
secure the concentrate supply. 

634
00:32:52,640 --> 00:32:55,040
So yeah, there's quite a few 
technical factors there. 

635
00:32:55,040 --> 00:32:57,960
Whereas this year it's been more
about ex China smell to growth 

636
00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:03,800
having outpaced the mine supply 
growth, whereas yeah, next year 

637
00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:05,720
your mine supply growth will 
continue. 

638
00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:08,560
Yes, you've still got the ex 
China smelters ramping up. 

639
00:33:08,560 --> 00:33:11,240
It's definitely going to keep 
TCS very tight. 

640
00:33:11,520 --> 00:33:14,200
But it's going to be interesting
going into negotiating season 

641
00:33:14,200 --> 00:33:16,080
because I think there will 
definitely have to be some 

642
00:33:16,080 --> 00:33:22,160
changes to the the kind of the 
idea of an annual TC or just one

643
00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:24,280
price agreed for all smelters 
globally. 

644
00:33:24,280 --> 00:33:25,480
I don't think we're going to see
that. 

645
00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:28,600
I think systems definitely going
to break apart, perhaps similar 

646
00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:31,760
to what we saw with iron ore in 
2008, nine when that broke 

647
00:33:31,760 --> 00:33:34,800
apart. 
One of the things we saw over 

648
00:33:34,800 --> 00:33:37,520
the past 20 years with the 
growth of China was China 

649
00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:41,200
actually going, signing JV's, 
trying to buy assets all around 

650
00:33:41,200 --> 00:33:43,080
the world. 
Do you do you expect India to do

651
00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:46,480
the same? 
That's a good question. 

652
00:33:46,480 --> 00:33:49,280
I mean, it seems to have been 
quite reluctant so far for 

653
00:33:49,280 --> 00:33:53,000
things like METCO where the 
steel mills know they, they 

654
00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:56,280
desperately need METCO. 
But at the same time they, they 

655
00:33:56,280 --> 00:33:59,400
don't seem willing to say 
overpay for assets, right? 

656
00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:02,040
They're still a little bit 
disciplined in, in what they're 

657
00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:05,120
willing to pay. 
And they, they view themselves 

658
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:07,800
as we're Steelman's, we're not 
miners, we don't know how to run

659
00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:10,000
mines so much. 
So I think there's a reluctance 

660
00:34:10,480 --> 00:34:14,840
to, to go upstream on that side.
But then you have seen some 

661
00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:17,600
transactions, right? 
You've had Jim Dao bought the 

662
00:34:17,600 --> 00:34:20,800
Motis assets from from Valley 
last year. 

663
00:34:22,560 --> 00:34:24,840
But yeah, it's certainly a big 
question mark for India where 

664
00:34:24,840 --> 00:34:26,159
they're going to get the met 
coal from. 

665
00:34:26,159 --> 00:34:29,679
So one of the fascinating things
last year, the Indian Steel 

666
00:34:29,679 --> 00:34:33,600
Association sent a delegation to
Mongolia and I was asking them, 

667
00:34:33,600 --> 00:34:35,280
well, how are you going to get 
the coal out of Mongolia? 

668
00:34:35,320 --> 00:34:37,800
You know, the Chinese will never
let you rail it through China. 

669
00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:41,360
And the Trans Siberian is jammed
with Russian commodities into 

670
00:34:41,360 --> 00:34:43,520
the seven East Coast ports. 
You're not going to get it out 

671
00:34:43,520 --> 00:34:46,280
there. 
And a couple of months ago, the 

672
00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:49,800
Indian government actually 
announced investment in ports in

673
00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:54,679
Iran with the idea that they can
rail cold 7 1/2 thousand 

674
00:34:54,679 --> 00:34:59,320
kilometres northwest out of 
Mongolia, across Russia, down 

675
00:34:59,320 --> 00:35:02,880
through Georgia and Armenia, and
across Iran, and then ship it 

676
00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:05,840
out of Iran into India. 
So you can imagine what that'll 

677
00:35:05,840 --> 00:35:09,000
do for the cost curve 7 1/2 
thousand kilometres of railing 

678
00:35:09,360 --> 00:35:11,400
now that those rail lines 
already exist. 

679
00:35:11,400 --> 00:35:14,600
I mean, Iran gets a lot of 
Russian commodities via that 

680
00:35:14,600 --> 00:35:17,240
rail route. 
So it would also open up kind of

681
00:35:17,240 --> 00:35:20,360
more, more commodities from 
Russia into India. 

682
00:35:20,640 --> 00:35:23,440
So yeah, they're just adding the
bulk pork capacity in Iran with 

683
00:35:23,440 --> 00:35:25,560
an idea of of shipping it that 
way that. 

684
00:35:25,560 --> 00:35:29,400
Trade relationship between 
Russia and India is, yeah, 

685
00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:31,720
particularly interesting with 
like, you know, all the reports 

686
00:35:31,720 --> 00:35:35,440
that some of the the growth in 
India of of late has been kind 

687
00:35:35,440 --> 00:35:37,800
of propped up about because 
they're, they're buying like 

688
00:35:37,800 --> 00:35:41,040
discounted oil from Russia 
because no one else in the world

689
00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:45,520
is buying it from Russia. 
Yeah, yeah. 

690
00:35:45,520 --> 00:35:49,120
So that's where Modi's kind of 
treading a fine line at the 

691
00:35:49,120 --> 00:35:51,200
moment of being everyone's 
friends, right, where he says 

692
00:35:51,720 --> 00:35:54,440
one of the freedom loving 
democracies of the world and and

693
00:35:54,520 --> 00:35:56,960
you know, mates with all, all 
the democracies. 

694
00:35:56,960 --> 00:36:00,280
But equally, yeah, happily part 
of the BRICS club as well. 

695
00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:03,520
Very close with Russia obviously
from their kind of the military 

696
00:36:03,520 --> 00:36:05,720
supplies from a budget 
standpoint. 

697
00:36:07,040 --> 00:36:09,400
And then, yeah, taking a lot of 
the Russian commodities. 

698
00:36:09,400 --> 00:36:11,920
And I think also the Russians 
are quite big investors in India

699
00:36:12,480 --> 00:36:15,480
as well. 
So, yeah, it's a very kind of 

700
00:36:15,480 --> 00:36:19,480
close relationship there that 
that's see giving them cheaper 

701
00:36:19,480 --> 00:36:23,080
inputs for the last couple of 
years, whether that continues. 

702
00:36:23,640 --> 00:36:27,760
How do you think about the the 
sort of bear case view on India 

703
00:36:27,760 --> 00:36:31,200
if it if it doesn't materialise 
in the next over the next 

704
00:36:31,200 --> 00:36:33,760
decade? 
I think so. 

705
00:36:33,760 --> 00:36:37,000
The problems historically, like 
I said, was a lack of 

706
00:36:37,000 --> 00:36:41,720
infrastructure and a lack of the
ability to execute where people 

707
00:36:41,720 --> 00:36:44,320
would have plans in India, but 
they just never get anywhere 

708
00:36:44,360 --> 00:36:47,400
right, Can't get land access, 
can't get approval, you know, 

709
00:36:47,440 --> 00:36:50,440
can't get access to to power or 
resources or things. 

710
00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:52,840
So those things do seem to have 
structurally changed where the 

711
00:36:52,840 --> 00:36:55,800
government's willing to 
encourage investment, it's 

712
00:36:56,320 --> 00:37:00,800
willing to to kind of help 
people get things done and 

713
00:37:00,800 --> 00:37:03,920
making the resources and the 
infrastructure available. 

714
00:37:05,320 --> 00:37:07,640
The other issue for India 
historically, I guess, has been 

715
00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:10,240
the politics side of things 
where, you know, politics kind 

716
00:37:10,240 --> 00:37:13,880
of becomes a factor that gets in
the way and delays things or 

717
00:37:13,880 --> 00:37:16,240
changes and moves the goal posts
continually. 

718
00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:20,040
That's something where on the 
one hand, yeah, you've seen Modi

719
00:37:20,040 --> 00:37:23,720
won the election again in April 
and and seems quite solid at the

720
00:37:23,720 --> 00:37:26,680
moment. 
But equally, putting aside the, 

721
00:37:26,760 --> 00:37:31,280
the politics at the central 
level, the states all seem to be

722
00:37:31,280 --> 00:37:33,280
wanting to participate in this 
growth. 

723
00:37:33,280 --> 00:37:37,040
Even if the state is run by an 
opposition party, you know, not,

724
00:37:37,040 --> 00:37:41,120
not one of the BJP alliances, 
they're still, they're not 

725
00:37:41,120 --> 00:37:44,240
standing in the way of growth 
because it seems every single 

726
00:37:44,240 --> 00:37:47,200
state doesn't want to get left 
behind that I can't be a state 

727
00:37:47,200 --> 00:37:50,040
where I'm, I'm get a reputation 
that I can't deliver or you 

728
00:37:50,040 --> 00:37:52,240
can't do business here because 
I'll get left behind. 

729
00:37:52,240 --> 00:37:54,720
People go to other states. 
So even when they've got 

730
00:37:54,720 --> 00:37:57,560
political differences, they 
still seem economically these 

731
00:37:57,560 --> 00:38:01,640
days to be, you know, willing to
push the investment to, to, to 

732
00:38:01,640 --> 00:38:05,680
get the ports and the roads and 
the rails and everything down to

733
00:38:05,920 --> 00:38:08,680
try and attract the FDI and the 
investment. 

734
00:38:09,120 --> 00:38:14,160
So yeah, it seems on a very 
sound basis at the moment. 

735
00:38:14,320 --> 00:38:16,960
Very, you know, we've seen 
decent growth rates since COVID 

736
00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:19,200
and I really do believe they are
sustainable. 

737
00:38:21,320 --> 00:38:25,360
If we, if we move away from 
India now you, you cover the, 

738
00:38:25,360 --> 00:38:29,520
the battery with the energy, the
new energy materials space as 

739
00:38:29,520 --> 00:38:32,560
well. 
And nickel and lithium, 

740
00:38:32,600 --> 00:38:35,760
obviously sort of key, key parts
of this, both having a bit of a 

741
00:38:35,760 --> 00:38:38,520
tough time at the moment. 
Why don't we start with lithium?

742
00:38:38,520 --> 00:38:41,120
Because I'm sure most people 
will be keen to hear about that 

743
00:38:41,120 --> 00:38:42,960
one. 
What, what do you make of the 

744
00:38:43,320 --> 00:38:47,120
the build out in China of, you 
know, how they've just expanded 

745
00:38:47,120 --> 00:38:50,000
so quickly and being able to 
produce so much and the sort of 

746
00:38:50,880 --> 00:38:55,000
debate going forward between 
Bryan's Hard Rock assets and, 

747
00:38:55,080 --> 00:38:57,360
you know, potentially clay 
projects going forward? 

748
00:38:58,240 --> 00:38:59,520
Yeah. 
I mean, the astounding thing in 

749
00:38:59,520 --> 00:39:02,160
lithium is how rapidly the 
Chinese have gone overseas and 

750
00:39:02,160 --> 00:39:05,800
developed mining assets. 
But you know, in iron ore they 

751
00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:08,320
were very slow to do that. 
But that's because iron ore 

752
00:39:08,320 --> 00:39:11,920
needs big, heavy infrastructure.
Obviously, the actual volumes in

753
00:39:11,920 --> 00:39:14,760
lithium are a lot smaller. 
You can get away with just 

754
00:39:14,760 --> 00:39:17,680
trucking projects. 
So it's amazing how how much 

755
00:39:18,120 --> 00:39:21,920
mine supply, Chinese sponsored 
mine supply has emerged just in 

756
00:39:21,920 --> 00:39:25,600
the last year out of Africa and 
such, like just kind of small 

757
00:39:25,600 --> 00:39:30,280
simple trucking shovel projects 
that that, you know, low CapEx, 

758
00:39:30,280 --> 00:39:33,240
maybe higher OpEx, but they get 
the tonnes quickly. 

759
00:39:34,320 --> 00:39:38,560
So China's been very aggressive 
in that investment, mainly on 

760
00:39:38,560 --> 00:39:40,400
the private side more than the 
state side. 

761
00:39:40,840 --> 00:39:43,680
And they seem to have, you know,
ensured that they've got enough 

762
00:39:43,680 --> 00:39:45,480
supply now. 
And that's where the lithium 

763
00:39:45,480 --> 00:39:49,560
market's really in trouble. 
So yeah, the Chinese lithium 

764
00:39:49,560 --> 00:39:54,480
demand still growing very well. 
EV sales in China are up 30% 

765
00:39:54,480 --> 00:39:56,160
this year. 
We've had kind of cash for 

766
00:39:56,160 --> 00:39:58,240
clunkers upgrade policy since 
April. 

767
00:39:58,240 --> 00:40:00,960
That's helped support the sales.
So total auto sales have been 

768
00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:04,080
struggling this year, but EV 
sales still up 30%. 

769
00:40:04,480 --> 00:40:07,920
Now the problem from a lithium 
perspective is, is hybrids, 

770
00:40:07,960 --> 00:40:09,480
right? 
Hybrid sales were up 80 odd 

771
00:40:09,480 --> 00:40:12,560
percent last year, again this 
year soaring as well. 

772
00:40:12,560 --> 00:40:16,320
So the actual lithium intensity 
per unit essentially has been 

773
00:40:16,320 --> 00:40:18,680
declining. 
Even though the headline growth 

774
00:40:18,680 --> 00:40:21,920
numbers are good, but lithium 
prices have really been 

775
00:40:21,920 --> 00:40:25,240
suffering about worries on the 
export demand right through the 

776
00:40:25,240 --> 00:40:27,920
supply chain, EV exports. 
Obviously we've seen 

777
00:40:27,920 --> 00:40:31,480
protectionism coming in US, 
Europe, elsewhere. 

778
00:40:32,080 --> 00:40:35,640
So there's worries there on the 
EV exports, but also the battery

779
00:40:35,640 --> 00:40:38,920
exports, the, the, the process 
lithium exports, you know, 

780
00:40:38,920 --> 00:40:42,640
through the supply chain. 
The Chinese market players are 

781
00:40:42,640 --> 00:40:46,160
very concerned about X China 
growth and the way that the EV 

782
00:40:46,200 --> 00:40:48,760
sales globally have just cooled 
so rapidly. 

783
00:40:48,800 --> 00:40:51,040
That's really the thing that 
that's got everyone on the back 

784
00:40:51,040 --> 00:40:54,240
foot because, yeah, the Chinese 
have built so much capacity 

785
00:40:54,960 --> 00:40:58,680
through the battery supply 
chains and the domestic demand. 

786
00:40:58,720 --> 00:41:01,000
You know, I mean, the the 
domestic EV penetration is 

787
00:41:01,000 --> 00:41:02,880
running ahead of the 2030 
targets now. 

788
00:41:02,960 --> 00:41:06,000
You know, it's going extremely 
well, but it's the Western world

789
00:41:06,000 --> 00:41:09,720
demand where which has really 
disappointed this year and and 

790
00:41:09,720 --> 00:41:12,560
that's the thing that that sent 
the price down while the supply 

791
00:41:12,560 --> 00:41:13,800
has been coming through 
aggressively. 

792
00:41:14,680 --> 00:41:17,880
What do you think about Rio 
Tinto's thesis for the Arcadium 

793
00:41:17,880 --> 00:41:20,680
takeover? 
About the future of Braun and 

794
00:41:20,680 --> 00:41:25,000
DLA being the big contributor to
the front of the cost curve, no.

795
00:41:26,920 --> 00:41:30,920
I'm not really familiar enough 
on that to share any thoughts? 

796
00:41:32,280 --> 00:41:33,520
Sorry. 
Yeah. 

797
00:41:37,080 --> 00:41:42,920
On the, on the, on the, the, you
know, the copper, nickel, you 

798
00:41:42,920 --> 00:41:45,280
know, aluminium kind of side 
side of the equation. 

799
00:41:46,600 --> 00:41:49,880
You know, I'm, I'm kind of, I'm 
curious to see how you, how you,

800
00:41:50,080 --> 00:41:53,120
you know, what your views or non
consensus views might be, you 

801
00:41:53,120 --> 00:41:54,560
know, on those, on those other 
commodities. 

802
00:41:56,560 --> 00:41:58,920
Yeah, so, so for the battery 
material side of things, I've 

803
00:41:58,920 --> 00:42:02,480
long said copper's my favourite 
because look, we just don't know

804
00:42:02,480 --> 00:42:04,680
which battery technology is 
going to win, right. 

805
00:42:04,680 --> 00:42:07,400
Essentially you're in this kind 
of Betamax VHS battle. 

806
00:42:07,400 --> 00:42:10,200
You know, a few years ago it was
all about NCM, now it's about 

807
00:42:10,200 --> 00:42:13,440
LFP, you know, next year the 
Chinese already bringing out 

808
00:42:13,440 --> 00:42:17,040
solid state batteries. 
It's the technology has just 

809
00:42:17,040 --> 00:42:19,320
been evolving so quickly at the 
actual battery level. 

810
00:42:19,960 --> 00:42:22,080
But we know they need the 
cables, right, The wires and the

811
00:42:22,080 --> 00:42:23,920
cars and the charging 
infrastructure. 

812
00:42:23,920 --> 00:42:27,000
We need mass grid investment 
globally for the charging 

813
00:42:27,000 --> 00:42:28,520
infrastructure. 
I think that's part of the 

814
00:42:28,520 --> 00:42:31,680
problem why EV sales have fallen
flat in so many countries 

815
00:42:31,680 --> 00:42:34,320
globally, because people are 
buying them and finding the 

816
00:42:34,320 --> 00:42:36,000
charging infrastructure is just 
not there. 

817
00:42:36,280 --> 00:42:40,160
That's what Western governments 
need to be investing in if they 

818
00:42:40,160 --> 00:42:44,080
want to encourage EV roll out. 
So to me copper is, is really 

819
00:42:44,080 --> 00:42:48,440
the beneficiary or the one to 
focus on for that kind of EV 

820
00:42:48,760 --> 00:42:52,760
related demand growth. 
Whereas yeah, nickel is really 

821
00:42:52,760 --> 00:42:54,640
suffering a on the supply side 
of the way. 

822
00:42:54,640 --> 00:42:58,960
Indonesia's come in and just 
gone from nothing 10 years ago 

823
00:42:58,960 --> 00:43:01,320
to this year. 
It's going to be 2.2 million in 

824
00:43:01,320 --> 00:43:05,080
a three and a half million tonne
global market and pushing on 

825
00:43:05,280 --> 00:43:09,160
still another 30 odd MHP and Mac
facilities coming in the next 18

826
00:43:09,160 --> 00:43:12,920
months. 
So Indonesia's built all this 

827
00:43:12,920 --> 00:43:17,680
supply on some of those heavy 
projection growth rates for NCM 

828
00:43:17,680 --> 00:43:20,360
from a few years ago. 
And of course now they've fallen

829
00:43:20,360 --> 00:43:22,560
flat because LFP has taken all 
the market share. 

830
00:43:22,800 --> 00:43:26,880
So nickel looks really, really 
challenged where yes, we need a 

831
00:43:27,280 --> 00:43:29,640
pain trade there. 
We need some of the high cost 

832
00:43:29,640 --> 00:43:33,080
supplies to be sidelined and 
we're seeing that happen now. 

833
00:43:33,080 --> 00:43:36,120
But I don't think that means we 
start a new cycle anytime soon. 

834
00:43:36,120 --> 00:43:39,280
I think nickel is going to going
to be struggling all the way 

835
00:43:39,280 --> 00:43:41,040
through next year at least as 
well. 

836
00:43:42,480 --> 00:43:45,400
Whereas yeah, copper's the 
favourite structurally because 

837
00:43:45,400 --> 00:43:49,520
that added demand from the EVs, 
from the charging infrastructure

838
00:43:49,520 --> 00:43:52,360
on top of what we're already 
seeing on the green energy 

839
00:43:52,360 --> 00:43:56,560
revolution, wind farms, solar 
panels, etcetera and all that 

840
00:43:56,840 --> 00:44:01,000
again, wiring them into grids 
and just the lack of copper mine

841
00:44:01,000 --> 00:44:03,160
supply growth. 
So that's, yeah, copper's 

842
00:44:03,160 --> 00:44:05,880
absolutely the favourite. 
Nicole not so keen on at all. 

843
00:44:06,680 --> 00:44:09,720
You, you posed the question 
when, when a price is going to 

844
00:44:09,720 --> 00:44:14,800
move sustainably high enough to 
incentivize new production or 

845
00:44:14,800 --> 00:44:17,680
whatever the outcome might be. 
Have you, have you been brave 

846
00:44:17,680 --> 00:44:20,760
enough to to put a timeline on 
when we see that leg up in 

847
00:44:20,760 --> 00:44:23,480
copper prices? 
Yeah. 

848
00:44:23,480 --> 00:44:26,920
So to me the copper prices have 
always been about scrap 

849
00:44:26,920 --> 00:44:30,240
generation. 
So I used to have a great chart 

850
00:44:30,240 --> 00:44:33,480
from Google Trends where if you 
search Google Trends for 

851
00:44:33,560 --> 00:44:36,840
articles about copper theft, 
then that used to match the 

852
00:44:36,840 --> 00:44:39,760
copper price really well through
the those peak prices in the 

853
00:44:39,760 --> 00:44:43,120
early twenty 10s. 
So it's almost like, you know, 

854
00:44:43,120 --> 00:44:45,320
the criminals are out there on 
their smartphones going, hey, 

855
00:44:45,320 --> 00:44:47,520
enemy copper's up tonight Lance,
let's go RIP off some more 

856
00:44:47,520 --> 00:44:49,640
wiring. 
We're willing to risk 

857
00:44:49,640 --> 00:44:52,200
electrocution at 12 K, but 
you're not willing to risk that 

858
00:44:52,200 --> 00:44:55,080
at 10K or something. 
It's that's really a marginal 

859
00:44:55,080 --> 00:44:57,000
supply. 
I wouldn't say there's there's 

860
00:44:57,000 --> 00:45:00,800
any mines in the world which are
not operating at $10,000 copper 

861
00:45:00,800 --> 00:45:03,680
but will operate at 12,000. 
You know, for your marginal 

862
00:45:03,680 --> 00:45:06,400
supply, it's all about 
incentivizing the scrap 

863
00:45:06,400 --> 00:45:11,640
generation. 
So that's what we're kind of 

864
00:45:11,640 --> 00:45:15,480
running into in these these 
these coming years where we're 

865
00:45:15,480 --> 00:45:17,880
going to have the demand 
outpacing the mine supply 

866
00:45:17,880 --> 00:45:19,160
growth. 
We're going to need to generate 

867
00:45:19,160 --> 00:45:20,560
more scrap. 
And if we're going to need to 

868
00:45:20,560 --> 00:45:24,400
generate more scrap now than we 
did last year, we're going to 

869
00:45:24,400 --> 00:45:28,200
require a higher price to to 
pull in those marginal scrap 

870
00:45:28,200 --> 00:45:31,240
units. 
So yeah, I've got kind of view 

871
00:45:31,240 --> 00:45:34,520
that proper prices are just 
continually higher in coming 

872
00:45:34,520 --> 00:45:36,800
years. 
You know, obviously we hit the 

873
00:45:36,800 --> 00:45:41,160
$12,000 level back in May when 
we had all that fast money 

874
00:45:41,160 --> 00:45:44,920
coming in on AI and data centres
and all that over excitement, 

875
00:45:44,920 --> 00:45:47,840
and that quickly evaporated. 
But yeah, I think that kind of 

876
00:45:47,840 --> 00:45:51,520
pricing will be quite achievable
early next year when when the 

877
00:45:51,520 --> 00:45:54,800
market's really in deficit and 
the Chinese demand keeps coming 

878
00:45:54,800 --> 00:45:56,640
through and India's doing really
well. 

879
00:45:57,680 --> 00:46:00,240
And yeah, the big thing we're 
waiting for in commodity land, I

880
00:46:00,240 --> 00:46:03,480
think is a bit of a a Western 
world restocking It's. 

881
00:46:03,640 --> 00:46:06,680
An interesting way to frame it, 
it's like, what, what, what 

882
00:46:06,680 --> 00:46:09,360
price does copper need to be to 
incentivize people to steal more

883
00:46:09,360 --> 00:46:11,280
of it? 
Yeah. 

884
00:46:11,400 --> 00:46:17,160
That's essentially it, yeah. 
Trev, Trev mentioned aluminium 

885
00:46:17,480 --> 00:46:19,760
before as well. 
So I think we'd be remiss not to

886
00:46:19,880 --> 00:46:23,200
talk a bit more about that given
what's just happened in the, the

887
00:46:23,200 --> 00:46:26,320
past couple weeks with alumina 
prices just flying, breaking 

888
00:46:26,320 --> 00:46:30,160
through 600 bucks. 
And you know, what we've also 

889
00:46:30,160 --> 00:46:33,240
learned the past couple weeks is
all this fragility through the 

890
00:46:33,240 --> 00:46:37,320
system, this this sort of choke 
points where the whole system is

891
00:46:37,480 --> 00:46:39,440
very contingent on a, a few 
factors. 

892
00:46:39,840 --> 00:46:43,960
I think the, the prime example 
is Guinean supply for the bulk 

893
00:46:43,960 --> 00:46:46,560
site. 
Do you think that fragility just

894
00:46:46,560 --> 00:46:49,880
lends itself to regular 
disruptions over the the coming 

895
00:46:49,880 --> 00:46:52,080
years? 
Yeah, absolutely. 

896
00:46:52,120 --> 00:46:54,760
Yeah. 
It's so we've got a much tighter

897
00:46:54,840 --> 00:46:58,400
global aluminium market now as 
opposed to Granana closure and 

898
00:46:58,400 --> 00:47:03,080
stuff. 
And yeah, the like you, you 

899
00:47:03,080 --> 00:47:04,880
touched it there on the Guinea 
side of things. 

900
00:47:04,880 --> 00:47:07,600
So I'm wondering if this is 
going to become a seasonal 

901
00:47:07,600 --> 00:47:10,680
factor similar to what we have 
in the met coal market. 

902
00:47:10,680 --> 00:47:16,400
Actually where you've got 
China's now reliant on imported 

903
00:47:16,400 --> 00:47:20,880
bauxite is about 70% of their 
supply and of that 2/3 is from 

904
00:47:20,880 --> 00:47:23,360
Guinea. 
So Guinea alone is about 1/3 of 

905
00:47:23,360 --> 00:47:27,280
Chinese bauxite supply. 
Guinea has rainy season from May

906
00:47:27,280 --> 00:47:30,400
to July. 
So this the exports are down 

907
00:47:30,400 --> 00:47:33,360
sharply. 
And of course that means Chinese

908
00:47:33,360 --> 00:47:37,240
import arrivals are much weaker 
in the third quarter, which is 

909
00:47:37,240 --> 00:47:40,040
when China's in peak hydro 
season and their aluminium 

910
00:47:40,040 --> 00:47:42,520
productions are running at 
record highs, pushing up to that

911
00:47:42,520 --> 00:47:45,600
45,000,000 tonne production cap.
So you've got a real inverse 

912
00:47:45,600 --> 00:47:48,880
seasonality there between the 
imported bauxite supply and the 

913
00:47:48,880 --> 00:47:50,680
domestic Chinese aluminium 
production. 

914
00:47:51,520 --> 00:47:56,280
So when the prices spiked back 
in June, and I was saying, well,

915
00:47:56,280 --> 00:47:58,920
you know, this is going to be 
quite sustainable till November 

916
00:47:58,920 --> 00:48:03,320
because historically when 
alumina prices have spiked, 

917
00:48:03,320 --> 00:48:06,800
you've seen Chinese exports come
out very quickly because China's

918
00:48:06,920 --> 00:48:10,360
never really struggled for 
bauxite supply as an abundance 

919
00:48:10,360 --> 00:48:13,720
of, of alumina refining capacity
and was able to switch on very 

920
00:48:13,720 --> 00:48:16,240
quickly when the price incentive
was there. 

921
00:48:16,520 --> 00:48:22,160
That's very different now post 
COVID, both iron ore, zinc of 

922
00:48:22,160 --> 00:48:24,720
oxide, you know, it's just 
impossible to mine anything in 

923
00:48:24,720 --> 00:48:27,440
China these days unless you're 
already in existing mine. 

924
00:48:28,120 --> 00:48:30,400
The anti corruption 
environmental rules, you know, 

925
00:48:30,400 --> 00:48:33,320
have just decimated the 
elasticity of those supply 

926
00:48:33,320 --> 00:48:36,040
curves in China. 
So there's no supply response in

927
00:48:36,040 --> 00:48:40,240
China on mine supply. 
And equally the refineries, 

928
00:48:40,240 --> 00:48:43,640
there's still plenty of spare 
refining capacity in China, but 

929
00:48:43,760 --> 00:48:46,680
because the Ghanaian volume is 
not there, they weren't able to 

930
00:48:46,680 --> 00:48:49,000
ramp up either. 
And with the domestic production

931
00:48:49,000 --> 00:48:52,480
of smelters being so high in 
three Q, they were what they 

932
00:48:52,480 --> 00:48:54,600
were producing extra was going 
domestically. 

933
00:48:55,320 --> 00:48:59,560
So yeah, that that's the problem
that we have now as a seasonal 

934
00:48:59,560 --> 00:49:01,360
trade. 
Could that be repeated next year

935
00:49:01,520 --> 00:49:04,080
and and increasingly more so 
going forward? 

936
00:49:04,080 --> 00:49:05,520
And that's a big question for 
me. 

937
00:49:06,120 --> 00:49:09,080
The alumina could start to 
develop that seasonal trade. 

938
00:49:09,600 --> 00:49:12,560
So the bizarre thing is how the 
aluminium markets just not the 

939
00:49:12,640 --> 00:49:14,600
aluminium markets not followed 
through. 

940
00:49:14,800 --> 00:49:17,480
You know, if you remember two 
years ago when LME aluminium was

941
00:49:17,480 --> 00:49:21,800
$4000 on the back of, you know, 
high energy prices every day, 

942
00:49:21,800 --> 00:49:25,000
you know, the aluminium traders,
LME traders are talking about 

943
00:49:25,000 --> 00:49:27,160
our spot. 
European power prices are up. 

944
00:49:27,160 --> 00:49:30,280
You know, aluminium's up, and 
that wasn't a real cost curve. 

945
00:49:30,280 --> 00:49:32,480
Who's producing aluminium with 
spot power? 

946
00:49:32,480 --> 00:49:34,640
You know, most smelters have got
contracted power. 

947
00:49:34,640 --> 00:49:37,960
They're not using a spot unit of
power to produce reduced 

948
00:49:38,480 --> 00:49:40,440
aluminium. 
Whereas the alumina price is 

949
00:49:40,440 --> 00:49:42,120
real. 
Even if people aren't buying a 

950
00:49:42,120 --> 00:49:45,000
spot cargo over alumina, an 
awful lot of people have got 

951
00:49:45,000 --> 00:49:47,120
contracts referencing the spot 
prices. 

952
00:49:47,400 --> 00:49:50,880
So a lot of smelters globally 
have got to be feeling of that 

953
00:49:50,880 --> 00:49:53,720
uplift in the alumina price and 
that really should be pushing 

954
00:49:53,720 --> 00:49:58,040
the, the aluminium cost curve 
about say $3000 LME basis. 

955
00:49:58,320 --> 00:50:00,680
But the aluminium price has been
very slow to move. 

956
00:50:01,240 --> 00:50:03,840
And yeah, I, I just think people
are not understanding what's 

957
00:50:03,840 --> 00:50:05,760
changed. 
You know, the, the, the normal 

958
00:50:05,760 --> 00:50:08,560
answer I get is luminous price 
spikes never last long. 

959
00:50:08,720 --> 00:50:10,720
You know, it'll be back down 
again in a few weeks. 

960
00:50:10,720 --> 00:50:13,800
So don't chase it. 
Whereas it's not been up now for

961
00:50:13,800 --> 00:50:15,240
three months. 
Like I said, it's just had 

962
00:50:15,240 --> 00:50:19,160
another fly up in the last few 
weeks as well and the risk is it

963
00:50:19,160 --> 00:50:21,800
stays higher now, you know, 
could well be into next year. 

964
00:50:22,240 --> 00:50:25,400
So yeah, LME aluminium, 
Surprised it hasn't moved 

965
00:50:25,400 --> 00:50:26,880
already. 
It's really lagging. 

966
00:50:28,480 --> 00:50:31,320
Is, is that the market you'd 
sort of pick of the the bunch 

967
00:50:31,320 --> 00:50:34,320
there that's most misunderstood?
Is there is there another one? 

968
00:50:34,320 --> 00:50:37,400
That one I mean. 
I think I'm I'm a prime example,

969
00:50:37,400 --> 00:50:40,000
but are there other ones you 
think are super misunderstood? 

970
00:50:41,960 --> 00:50:44,320
Yeah, that's one that really 
stands out and and certainly for

971
00:50:44,320 --> 00:50:46,960
this year just in terms of 
something that's changed 

972
00:50:47,400 --> 00:50:51,480
dramatically. 
But my other big, big one is 

973
00:50:51,480 --> 00:50:53,880
metcoal where that's 
structurally and very bullish on

974
00:50:53,880 --> 00:50:55,800
metcoal. 
And equally that's got a very 

975
00:50:55,800 --> 00:50:59,160
interesting seasonal pattern 
because you know, iron ore. 

976
00:50:59,160 --> 00:51:02,280
The nice thing about the iron 
ore market seasonally is that 

977
00:51:02,400 --> 00:51:06,400
Chinese New Year always January 
or February matches the West 

978
00:51:06,400 --> 00:51:09,080
Australian cyclone season and 
the Brazilian rainy season. 

979
00:51:09,200 --> 00:51:12,000
So you have both demand and 
supply both week in the first 

980
00:51:12,000 --> 00:51:15,800
quarter of the calendar year and
then you know both pick up after

981
00:51:15,800 --> 00:51:18,280
that. 
Whereas for Metco, you've got 

982
00:51:18,280 --> 00:51:22,160
India, the biggest buyer is on 
monsoon season from May to 

983
00:51:22,160 --> 00:51:25,680
September with reduced steel 
production and then they come 

984
00:51:25,680 --> 00:51:29,080
out of the monsoon season and 
ramp steel production Q4 into a 

985
00:51:29,080 --> 00:51:32,920
peak in Q1, which of course is 
exactly when Queensland starts 

986
00:51:32,920 --> 00:51:34,560
to suffer from all the rains and
cycling. 

987
00:51:35,160 --> 00:51:38,760
So you've got a real inverse 
seasonality in Metco where your 

988
00:51:38,760 --> 00:51:43,320
biggest supplier out of East 
Coast Australia is offline at 

989
00:51:43,320 --> 00:51:47,160
the same time as as the biggest 
producer India is, is, is 

990
00:51:47,560 --> 00:51:49,400
pushing its production to peak 
levels. 

991
00:51:49,800 --> 00:51:52,320
So you've seen for the last two 
years and again this year looks 

992
00:51:52,320 --> 00:51:56,000
like being a repeat where 
metcoal prices have been 300 

993
00:51:56,000 --> 00:52:01,120
plus dollars at some point in Q1
on a cyclone induced spike. 

994
00:52:01,880 --> 00:52:04,720
But middle of the year they're 
down to $200 because the Indians

995
00:52:04,720 --> 00:52:07,360
are suffering from monsoon 
season and Aussie productions 

996
00:52:07,680 --> 00:52:10,760
back up to normal levels. 
So you've got a real interesting

997
00:52:10,760 --> 00:52:13,200
seasonality there in metcoal, 
which I think could just get 

998
00:52:13,200 --> 00:52:17,440
more and more extremes as as the
Indian demand grows and grows. 

999
00:52:17,520 --> 00:52:19,840
I wonder the commodity traders 
make so much money. 

1000
00:52:24,320 --> 00:52:26,880
Ian, I've got, I've got one, one
last commodity. 

1001
00:52:26,880 --> 00:52:29,400
I just want to touch on a bit 
out of left field, but nobody 

1002
00:52:29,400 --> 00:52:31,480
talks about it and you cover the
the base base. 

1003
00:52:31,480 --> 00:52:33,680
I wonder if you give it any 
thought Zinc. 

1004
00:52:33,680 --> 00:52:36,400
Is there any reason to get 
excited about zinc? 

1005
00:52:37,240 --> 00:52:39,280
Does it stink or does it smell 
good? 

1006
00:52:40,960 --> 00:52:42,480
Oh, it, it smells good at the 
moment. 

1007
00:52:42,480 --> 00:52:47,040
Yeah, it's, it's, yeah, Zinc's 
had a very good year already. 

1008
00:52:47,200 --> 00:52:50,760
Price has been up towards $3000 
for much of the year, which 

1009
00:52:50,760 --> 00:52:54,240
historically is very high level.
You've seen a lot of zinc mines 

1010
00:52:54,240 --> 00:52:56,920
supply disruptions globally, 
right? 

1011
00:52:56,920 --> 00:52:59,360
Peru, Australia, 2 biggest 
suppliers. 

1012
00:53:00,120 --> 00:53:03,080
And again, as I said, on the 
China domestic side, it's 

1013
00:53:03,080 --> 00:53:06,040
something where we've lost that 
elasticity of domestic zinc mine

1014
00:53:06,040 --> 00:53:11,040
production as well. 
So the zinc concentrates markets

1015
00:53:11,040 --> 00:53:15,760
been extremely tight. 
That's really hurt the Chinese 

1016
00:53:15,760 --> 00:53:19,160
refined zinc production as well.
That's the refined zinc 

1017
00:53:19,160 --> 00:53:21,160
production is really struggling 
because of that lack of 

1018
00:53:21,160 --> 00:53:23,440
concentrates. 
So yeah, in copper, they've 

1019
00:53:23,440 --> 00:53:25,720
found a bit more scrap. 
They've managed to maintain the 

1020
00:53:25,720 --> 00:53:28,640
copper production and they had 
very high concentrate 

1021
00:53:28,640 --> 00:53:30,960
inventories carrying over the 
last year that have helped. 

1022
00:53:31,480 --> 00:53:34,280
Whereas in zinc, that 
concentrate tightness is really 

1023
00:53:34,680 --> 00:53:37,160
feeding through to the refined 
zinc market in China. 

1024
00:53:37,640 --> 00:53:41,000
So refined zinc production's 
down and China's having to 

1025
00:53:41,000 --> 00:53:44,400
import more refined zinc from 
the global market. 

1026
00:53:44,720 --> 00:53:48,400
So that's, yeah, really 
tightening up the global market.

1027
00:53:48,400 --> 00:53:52,160
And steel production obviously 
has suffered a lot this year. 

1028
00:53:52,960 --> 00:53:56,600
Steel's about 2/3 of of zinc 
consumption goes into Gulf 

1029
00:53:56,600 --> 00:53:58,240
steel. 
Of that, about two thirds is 

1030
00:53:58,240 --> 00:54:00,920
into autos. 
So with this Chinese stimulus, 

1031
00:54:00,920 --> 00:54:04,000
you know, that should certainly 
help auto sales, appliance 

1032
00:54:04,000 --> 00:54:07,680
sales, you know, a lot of those 
end use zinc, galvanised steel 

1033
00:54:07,680 --> 00:54:10,720
markets. 
So I think the zinc demand will 

1034
00:54:10,720 --> 00:54:13,560
be doing better in China in 
coming months, whereas the 

1035
00:54:13,560 --> 00:54:15,680
supply side still very 
challenged, doesn't look like 

1036
00:54:15,680 --> 00:54:18,320
that can recover until at least 
next year. 

1037
00:54:18,600 --> 00:54:21,520
So I think, yeah, seems already 
quite punchy today. 

1038
00:54:21,560 --> 00:54:24,200
You know, aluminium prices have 
really underperformed. 

1039
00:54:24,200 --> 00:54:25,800
They should catch up. 
I'd say zinc. 

1040
00:54:26,120 --> 00:54:29,200
The prices have done well, but 
they certainly look sustainable 

1041
00:54:29,200 --> 00:54:31,160
here. 
On a kind of three to six month 

1042
00:54:31,160 --> 00:54:32,600
view, it looks like a very tight
market. 

1043
00:54:32,800 --> 00:54:34,360
Where? 
Where were the disruptions in 

1044
00:54:34,360 --> 00:54:41,400
Australia for Zinc North QLD? 
Yeah, was it, Do your rivers 

1045
00:54:41,400 --> 00:54:43,560
have have issues or not? 
Yeah. 

1046
00:54:43,560 --> 00:54:46,200
Century zinc soft line as well. 
Century. 

1047
00:54:50,200 --> 00:54:52,800
Yeah, fantastic. 
Ian, I am all out of questions. 

1048
00:54:52,800 --> 00:54:54,480
I think I've peppered you with 
enough. 

1049
00:54:54,760 --> 00:54:56,320
Bellis, do you have any more for
Ian? 

1050
00:54:57,120 --> 00:54:59,360
Thank you so much, Ian, If, if 
there's, you know, one last 

1051
00:54:59,360 --> 00:55:01,120
thing, you kind of want to leave
our, our listeners with 

1052
00:55:01,120 --> 00:55:04,040
something, you know, some 
something we should all reflect 

1053
00:55:04,040 --> 00:55:05,840
on or, or something non 
consensus that you've been 

1054
00:55:05,840 --> 00:55:07,640
pondering. 
Love to hear it. 

1055
00:55:09,720 --> 00:55:11,080
Yeah. 
So I'd say the key thing really 

1056
00:55:11,080 --> 00:55:14,200
and obviously India, we've got 
the structural growth story and 

1057
00:55:14,200 --> 00:55:16,720
and that's still very under 
appreciated, you know, but as as

1058
00:55:16,720 --> 00:55:19,920
the demand keeps printing strong
numbers, hopefully they'll get 

1059
00:55:19,920 --> 00:55:22,760
more and more attention. 
But the other thing is on the 

1060
00:55:22,760 --> 00:55:26,400
China side that it's not just 
one China as it was for the last

1061
00:55:26,400 --> 00:55:28,720
20 plus years. 
It's about the split between new

1062
00:55:28,720 --> 00:55:31,240
China and old China. 
And that gives very different 

1063
00:55:31,240 --> 00:55:33,440
stories for each of the 
different commodities. 

1064
00:55:34,800 --> 00:55:36,280
Excellent mate, amazing. 
Thank you so much for. 

1065
00:55:36,360 --> 00:55:38,000
Your time in. 
Thanks for that bud. 

1066
00:55:38,000 --> 00:55:40,040
Cool. 
Good stuff. 

1067
00:55:40,200 --> 00:55:43,480
Cheers guys. 
Oh boy, Jay, let's talk about 

1068
00:55:43,480 --> 00:55:44,720
buddy. 
Something that's in your 

1069
00:55:44,720 --> 00:55:47,200
wheelhouse and not mine. 
You love that shit. 

1070
00:55:48,400 --> 00:55:49,760
I had a feeling you might say 
that. 

1071
00:55:49,760 --> 00:55:52,480
And yeah, I did love it. 
There was a good few details in 

1072
00:55:52,480 --> 00:55:53,720
there that I hadn't heard 
before. 

1073
00:55:53,720 --> 00:55:57,600
So very, very fascinating and 
awesome that we get a chat with 

1074
00:55:57,600 --> 00:55:58,400
these folks. 
Yeah. 

1075
00:55:58,680 --> 00:56:00,600
It's amazing how I can. 
Good intro but. 

1076
00:56:00,840 --> 00:56:04,680
Yeah, good intro. 
It's amazing how consensus like 

1077
00:56:04,680 --> 00:56:07,360
long copperies, everyone's long,
everyone is super, super bullish

1078
00:56:07,360 --> 00:56:09,640
copper. 
It's just it's an amazingly 

1079
00:56:09,640 --> 00:56:11,920
consensus for you for. 
The last four years. 

1080
00:56:12,120 --> 00:56:13,600
Yeah. 
But yeah, maybe it's when people

1081
00:56:13,600 --> 00:56:16,800
are fatigued that actually just.
When are they going to give up 

1082
00:56:16,800 --> 00:56:20,360
Trev and just let it go up? 
Well, I also think it's so 

1083
00:56:20,360 --> 00:56:23,160
consensus in our very niche 
world of the market. 

1084
00:56:23,360 --> 00:56:27,320
You know, it's like it's, it has
gone beyond that, you know, 

1085
00:56:27,320 --> 00:56:29,400
beyond. 
And it did when copper ran over 

1086
00:56:29,400 --> 00:56:31,760
5 bucks. 
That was like hedge funds and 

1087
00:56:31,760 --> 00:56:35,440
these sorts of characters who 
aren't always playing in, you 

1088
00:56:35,440 --> 00:56:37,520
know, mining stocks or whatever.
They might look at commodities 

1089
00:56:37,520 --> 00:56:41,960
more broadly, but it's a 
smallish part of the world. 

1090
00:56:42,280 --> 00:56:45,200
MMS are going to be mining a 
large part of the world soon, 

1091
00:56:45,200 --> 00:56:48,960
JD, did you know that? 
They are and grounded are going 

1092
00:56:48,960 --> 00:56:50,960
to be supplying houses for a 
large part of Perth. 

1093
00:56:51,000 --> 00:56:52,720
Pretty bloody. 
Pretty much MMS do a bit 

1094
00:56:52,720 --> 00:56:54,480
grounded, Chuck the camp in for 
it. 

1095
00:56:54,720 --> 00:56:57,480
Crossbound your energy will 
Chuck your power station in for 

1096
00:56:57,480 --> 00:57:00,160
it. 
Bloody savical put the ground 

1097
00:57:00,160 --> 00:57:04,400
sport in for if it is an 
underground mine CRE. 

1098
00:57:04,440 --> 00:57:06,680
Got you insorted. 
They'll insure the mine, 

1099
00:57:06,680 --> 00:57:09,000
Greenland's equipment will sort 
the water infrastructure out for

1100
00:57:09,000 --> 00:57:11,440
the mine. 
K drill will find the mine. 

1101
00:57:11,520 --> 00:57:16,400
Before this happens. 
MMTS would have got the tenement

1102
00:57:16,400 --> 00:57:18,640
sorted for K drill to go. 
Start drilling on it and 

1103
00:57:18,640 --> 00:57:21,560
Australian and look at haulage. 
Would have cleared the site, put

1104
00:57:21,560 --> 00:57:25,680
the dams in K drill to do the 
holes and then once it's all 

1105
00:57:25,680 --> 00:57:28,120
gone you'll see how it's 
performing on the stock market 

1106
00:57:28,120 --> 00:57:30,640
Morris Park chart. 
Fantastic. 

1107
00:57:31,160 --> 00:57:33,360
Mate very money miners. 
The information contained in 

1108
00:57:33,360 --> 00:57:36,160
this episode of Money of Mine is
of general nature only and does 

1109
00:57:36,160 --> 00:57:38,960
not take into account the 
objectives, financial situation 

1110
00:57:39,000 --> 00:57:41,000
or needs of any particular 
person. 

1111
00:57:41,320 --> 00:57:44,360
Before making any investment 
decision, you should consult 

1112
00:57:44,360 --> 00:57:47,400
with your financial advisor and 
consider how appropriate the 

1113
00:57:47,400 --> 00:57:50,280
advice is to your objectives 
financial situation. 

1114
00:57:50,520 --> 00:57:51,080
And needs.