Righto buddy Borders, welcome to another yarn bought to you by
the best resource in bloody drill hole survey
instrumentation axis mine and technology the trusted advisor
and we've got one of the look. I'm just gonna put him out there
as one of the best bloody resource fund managers gown
around Dave Franklin, Argonaut Co, head of Argonaut Funds
management. Mate, you you will not get an
intro like that ever. You have to you have to pay for
that shit. Usually you get titled like
that. How are you copper?
I'm good, Maddie and Hailey and and and JD, thanks for having me
on today. Oh.
JD back. You're obviously still making
money if you're still coming on. So, well, there's no one going.
People don't come on if you're losing money with them.
Yeah. What what I find is there's
times in the market where you're making money and there's times
in the market where you just try not to lose money and, and, and
the last year's been a bit like that, right?
It's just hanging in there. Ah, very, very good mate throw
Sue she throws me iPad JC 'cause I'll I will 100% go rogue as
anything if I've got no God yes JD churning in from over over E
yeah E US. I, I couldn't miss it.
And I was actually, yeah, I was excited.
I'd listened back to the chat we did almost a year ago now, Dave.
And it was, yeah, interesting to to reflect back on the, the way
of the world back then and how things are now.
So yeah, maybe maybe keen to start with just what you're sort
of sentiment check was at at Diggers.
We bumped into each other a couple of weeks ago there now
and that's always a good place to get a feel for the the market
as it kind of relates to what we follow in commodities.
What what were you kind of thinking?
What? A week I dive.
It was a great week. Yeah, as as it always is.
But you know, I, I think Diggers this year was, was what it used
to be. It's all about gold.
And I think if you look at where commodities gone over the last
year, you know, everything's, you know, a lot of the base
metals have been tough. Lithium I'm sure we'll talk
about today has been catastrophic.
And but gold's up 20% and particularly the gold producers
have been up very strongly. And perhaps if there's, if
there's one disconnect is the smaller golds really haven't
moved. But you know, diggers all about
gold and a lot of the the management there strutting
around and reclaiming their position at the top of the heap.
Feeling pretty good about themselves.
Hey, yeah, did you find the I think I repeated the repeating
myself a bit here, but the common theme I felt from
Diggers, there wasn't many high conviction longs.
Like people were like, right, what's the bet at the moment?
What's the bet? And like there wasn't like a
real, you know, 'cause you things like Spartan have already
had the run and people like, well, we're we're sort of, we're
we're still long, but it's like it's there wasn't that really?
What's the next big thing? Well, I, I think you're right
and and that's in the gold sector, but it's all, it's also
really across the resource of space.
So what you tend to see is an emerging opportunity.
Everyone jumps on it and it and it rewrites pretty quickly.
But but I think you're right. It's, you know, it's a difficult
market to to find those, you know, special stories.
Any any other anything other than goal that was sort of your
fair what what gets a silver medal for diggers?
What was getting down about a bit?
Yeah, look, you know, you know, I, I thought some of the, you
know, I, I thought the, the Pilbara presentation and, and
Patriot were were good presentations.
And you know, I think what's interesting about lithium is
where the splodge mean prices in particular suggests there's not
a whole lot of downside. I think in the equities perhaps
there can be. But as a market, you know, it's
getting interesting because it's way into the cost curve.
And you know, I think as a resource sector investor, what
you're looking for is to buy the really high quality assets at a
good price. And it's these kind of markets
where those opportunities emerge.
So, you know, that's the exciting thing.
Yeah. And was there much chat around
the the fundies with you like you just after diggers, we're
obviously saying the Pilbara Latin deal prior to that, what
was the talk about getting positions in lithium is everyone
thinking? Stay away.
You can't. I think we've learnt about
lithium. You can't predict when the
pain's gonna stop because it could keep going.
Yeah, Well, good. But are people starting?
Was there a bit of a vibe? They're starting to think, well,
I how much lower can you go? Yeah, I, I think so.
And I think lithium but, but also across other commodities.
I mean, you look at something like Middle's acquisition Corp,
you know, they're obviously pretty, pretty open about the
wanting to, to add assets. You look at, you know, beach
Energy, which which we might touch on, you know, they see and
you know, Brett Woods coming in there, it's all about growing
the asset base and looking, you know, adding, adding assets.
So I think we're entering a phase really across the resource
landscape where acquisitions is is often an easier way to grow
your business rather than you know developing new ore bodies,
so. I think Dave probably on on this
statement sort of touching on a quote that really stood out from
our, our last channel arguably probably resonates very strongly
today is observe and react rather than predict.
I mean, it's been such a rocky ride for resources in the last
year. How, how, what have been sort of
your key observations you're making at a macro level and, and
how you sort of, you know, deliver on that observe and
react rather than predicting a portfolio sense.
Yeah. So, so really what it comes down
to is how do you, how do you deal with with volatile and
uncertain markets, right. So, you know, if, if I'm to put
it into context and really from a macro view, if you look at
what's happened over the last year, you go, well, you know, in
the Western world, interest rates have been increasing.
You know, economies have been slowing question mark whether
it's going to be a hard landing or a soft landing.
You've got China really lacklustre economic performance.
You've got, you know, conflicts in, in numerous places around
the world. And, and most of that is, is at
face value, not very good for resources.
So you know, you've got two approaches.
One is you just go, I'm going to make a call, right?
Things are going to improve. The market's going to go up or
things are going to deteriorate and the market's going to go
down. I'm going to switch into cash
and sit there. And you know, if you think it's
going to go down, you switch into cash.
If you if you think the market's going up, then then then you get
fully invested. The risk with that is, you know,
markets often don't move how you expect that they will move,
right. So the, the way we take it is we
say, well, let's not predict, but let's just prepare for the
eventualities. So given those factors that I've
just said, you know, the way we adjust our portfolio is to say,
well, we probably want to have some flexibility.
So we don't want to be in small caps typically we want to be in
big caps. So in the end of July, for
example, I think we had 70% of the portfolio in companies with
a market cap above a billion, which you know, and, and 70% in
producers rather than developers.
And I think you know, almost 90% of the of the underlying
projects in the portfolio we're in either Australia or North
America, right? So, so you kind of firstly say,
well, let's, let's minimise risk as best we can, but we stay
invested, right. But the benefit of being in
those bigger companies is if the market does correct, either you
get the benefit of being better quality because they fall less
and recover first. But also if you then make the
decision where you convert into cash, you can.
So, so a really good example was, you know, that's where we
were at the end of July, the first week of August, you know,
as you'd recall was, you know, was, was pretty scary on the
Friday night New York market fell.
And the positive was, you know, going into Monday, I'm going, I
know exactly what what we're going to do.
Our portfolio is in reasonable shape.
There's always stuff you never get it percent right, but you
know, our portfolio is in good shape.
You know, I think what I'll do on Monday before the US market
opens on Monday night is we'll sell a bit more, increase our
cash. So it went above 25% because it
looked like it could have been one of those events where you
get a big, a bigger sell off now that didn't eventuate.
So what it means is during that week we could start to to to
invest our cash. We really didn't take any
negative downside from that and and we move forward.
Yeah. I mean you've also got the
ability and the fund to an extent to go short.
Is that something you've tapped into in the in the past year?
We, we haven't. And I know everyone, everyone
you have on here. Since they've done us.
But, but what I would highlight, JD, is how you structure your
fund when you first set it up is also really critical, right?
So things like can you short is important, but can you invest in
big caps as well as small caps? Can you invest internationally?
What percentage of cash can you hold?
You know, can you short, you know, can you buy mining
services companies as well as resource companies because what
you're looking for is areas where you can hide when the
market's under pressure, but also, you know, as broad a range
of stock picking opportunities as as possible.
So that's, that's, that's important.
It's a tough one. It'll be a tough one to surmise,
but like how do you in terms of quick pros and cons for of
majority long preserving cash when you need it and buying low
versus long short like long, long short like you know, stocks
will go go up or down or stay stay the same.
What's the the trade off of preserving the cash compared to
activating a short position? Yeah, look, I mean.
Is it a risk? It's.
A well, it's a combination of things.
Is, is one, you know, I look at the groups that do short and
where you can get some information on them really
across the market. And, and it's, it's difficult
often to see that, you know, over the course of a year, they
actually create value through that process, right.
The resource market is also pretty small and, and, and not a
large, not a number of, not a large number of companies that
are, are really liquid. So, you know, you need liquidity
to, to do it effectively. So the view we've taken to date
is, is we, we haven't done it and we probably won't do it, but
we just like to have that capacity to do it if if things
change. Is there is there much capacity,
capacity for it? But when you know you've got
funds that have been you know long short for a long time and
they're probably in terms of the prime broker relationships.
And then now flock side, the Argonaut Resource Fund says
right, we're going to start amping up our short position.
So you sort of have to get in line to get get into the pool.
Well, I think you're going to have those relationships and,
and it comes down to, you know, the, the size and the, you know,
and the, and the frequency and the quantity that you're doing.
But as I said, you know, we've stayed clear of that to this
point. Interest.
Very interesting, yeah. You, you really tap into the,
the ability to go to cash and that, that margin that you have
there is, is notably bigger than some other funds.
Yeah, I mean you mentioned up to 25% the numbers I looked at the
skimming through this morning, I think was 17% where you're kind
of currently at. Yeah.
The the time you last reported, that's really the the, the safe
haven as I see it for you. Right knows everything about
you, Dave. Don't forget past the big fella.
That's right. That's a lot of top and your
tax. Hold on.
Yeah. So, so we can actually go to 30%
cash and and we tried, you know, the, the risk that you have when
you have the ability to go to 30% cash is you go too cautious
and you sit on high level of cash for a long period of time,
right? So you got to keep telling
yourself, I mean, this business to invest, I got to invest which
we try and do. So we use of, you know, the
higher levels say above, you know, particularly above 20%,
but even really above 15% is when you got concerns about the
market and we typically won't hold large amounts of cash for a
long period of time. It's really just when you think
there's an uncertain event or the market's, you know, there's
issues there and then then we'll hold off.
But you know, we think it's the important part and it kind of
goes to not, you know, to the shorting.
We'd prefer to hold cash rather than short at this point.
Dave, so the, the way you, you, you think about your portfolio
is sort of structuring into it the two themes of one being
energy transition and the other geopolitical risk.
You sort of talked to a bit of sort of what's changed from from
last year to this year. I mean, arguably, I think
probably the the interesting ones to us there.
You could probably add to geopolitical risk is, is
permitting risk in Australia, just Australia, a lot of what's
happened in very recent history and yeah, addressing base load
power and what the the future energy makes could look like
globally and and perhaps in Australia's been quite a
political and controversial topic as well.
Yeah. How, how have you found that's
impacted the portfolio broadly? Like with those themes, is it
sort of swung to 1 theme more than another?
Yeah, last year. What, what I've found
interesting, like we kicked off the fund in January 2020 and at
that time we kind of, sort of outlined here the, the key
resilient themes, you know, energy transition, geopolitical
risk and you know, and still doing our, our monthly, you
know, presentations, the, the, the themes are the same.
So you know, if you take energy transition, I think the big
change has been really up until probably a year ago people
talked about energy transition, but they're really talking about
electric vehicles and the EV market and you know, and the and
the roll out of that globally. Yeah, that's right.
It was just cars. Yeah, solar panels and wind
turbines wasn't. It yeah, exactly.
And and renewable power, whereas I think now it's going you know,
transport is, you know, is 15% of global greenhouse gas to the
emissions. And whereas power and industry
and it's really the, the, the fossil fuels used used in, in
empowering, you know, industry is, you know, probably 55 to
60%. And I I suppose though they were
thinking but originally that this, the renewables were going
to be the base like power. Well, that's right.
That's exactly. What?
The Australian, exactly? So that's what, Yeah.
He wasn't even getting a talk about Yeah.
So, you know, so I think where we where we're at now is there's
a much which I think is healthy is there's a much greater
understanding that we need to address the base load issue,
right. And and renewables is part of
that. Really I think where that's
fallen down from a base load perspective is, is battery
storage, which really hasn't technology hasn't sort of driven
that forward. But then you're right, then it's
then it's things like nuclear power, but but also I think gas
has come back as a transitionary fuel and people understanding
that's going to be necessary either to replace coal, you
know, thurible coal or to support renewables.
So I think it's, you know, I think it's, it's, it's, it's,
it's positive there. What what have you sort of
noticed just, you know, swerving back to the, the geopolitical
kind of front And you know, gold is the key part and I find it
fascinating. You got oil and gas as well in
there. I mean, it's a bit sort of
grandiose to talk about everything going on in the
Middle East, but how do you kind of play that when you're talking
about oil and gas and you're picking names like Karoon and
your top five? Are you thinking about any of
that stuff or you just purely focused on the bottom up
fundamentals of the names that you're holding?
Yeah, it's a combination. You know, the way I often
describe what we do, it's top down meets bottom up.
So you know, what's what's happening at the commodity level
and what's happening at the at the micro company level.
Something like Karoon's a good example of that, where we're
going. If you look at what's happened
in, you know, Russia, Ukraine, you look at you look at what's
happening in the Middle East. You know, we we particularly
like oil. You know, we think prices will
be supported there. Corun has obviously had a few
disappointments in the market. We think it's coming through
that on a free cash flow generation perspective it looks
really good. So there's kind of commodity is,
is where we want to be. And you know, and from a value
perspective it also sort of stacks up.
Do you think it's now more so difficult to be high conviction
in this market? That's something sort of we
spoke at at length in our last chat.
And I noticed in your monthly report from about a year ago,
yet your top five comprised almost, you know, just over 50%,
yeah, of your portfolio. Now it's down to about a third,
yeah, which is arguably a lot more than most, yeah, fund
managers still anyway. But how do you manage that or
you still take the view on, you know, you otherwise you
compromise on quality. That was another.
Yeah. Well, I think that's right in
that again, it comes back to the resource sector is actually
relatively small. And so when you find a good
idea, you want to be able to back it.
So that's right. Our top five, I think a 3334% of
the portfolio and our top ten are about just under 60 percent,
55 or 60%. So what what we're seeing in the
market now and I think Maddie, we're talking about this earlier
that it's just kind of hard to find those really compelling
opportunities. So we tend to have a bigger
number of more moderate holdings.
But as you're saying, relative to what other funds might do
our, our relative, you know, modest holdings are still, you
know, 4 to 6%, right, so. Compelling.
No. Have you Do you?
I'll, I'll use an example. Genesis.
Do you have Genesis? We don't at the moment we've
we've we've held it in the past. So it's a mate the way that we
sort of manage the portfolio is we say we we have a universe of
investable companies that we like and we want to own right.
And then it's really get really, does the macro situation favour
that and does it look good enough value?
So Genesis, we love what they're doing.
I mean, obviously Rally has done a great job in pulling the
Genesis business together and now it's really in the execution
mode. But we think in the gold space,
perhaps there's better value at the moment.
Yeah, and so I'll just the reason I brought that up as an
as an example and probably in the year since we spoke to you
last like one more. I think I used to when I was
talking about Ulysses, Yeah, thinking like right.
I think it was a 5 gramme resource.
I forget what they deserve rate is, but I'm like, you know, like
4 so mine and four gramme dirt and it's flat.
And once you get the recovery, it's like hard work and all
this, but the gold price is going up so much.
And like you look at what's what's out there, it's like far
out. If you're pulling out three to
four gramme dirt from a underground, even if it's a bit
difficult, it's like, well, that's actually good these days.
Yeah. So like what what we considered
was like compelling opportunities and like just
based on looking at yeah, grades, like tonnes and grade.
Yeah, it it's just changed so much in a year.
Well, like a blood Yeah right. 1.2 gramme open pit.
That's like fucking Jake, give it to us any day.
Yeah, would have even pissed on it 10 years ago.
Yeah. Well, I mean, it'd be
interesting to look back 12 months ago and what the, you
know, what the expectations were about all in sustaining costs,
which is the other side of what you're talking about.
You know, it was probably 15-16 hundred maybe, maybe a slightly
higher, but probably not a lot. Whereas now you know, 2000 is
kind of, you know, not unusual and and some are, some are more
than that, so. If you're if you're too 2000 and
unhedged, yeah, like you think. You're a genius.
Yeah, exactly. You think you should be still
making maybe 800 to 1000 bucks on top all in like you're
frigging laughing. Exactly, Yeah.
Exactly, I'm a Ding Ding Ding on.
Genesis oh Ding Ding Dings just ripped the Ding Ding Dings.
Oh, you're a Ding? Ding Ding on.
I am a Ding Ding Ding on the fund as well.
Good. That's some responsible
investing JC, you're not not punting there like well done
mate. Thanks.
A Ding Ding Ding on on Karoon on my part.
Two, while while we're on gold, I think we should just dive,
dive a bit deeper and round out how you, you kind of play it.
So obviously we're talking about a producer there.
How do you talk about getting, getting leverage?
Obviously everyone's raging about the, the gold price in
Aussie dollar terms over 3700 and all that.
And then people start to quickly look, look down the curve, you
know, what's what's in the developer space, what's in the
explorer space and see where they can really find value
still. What are you seeing out there?
Yeah. Look, so to put it in context,
in our fund, we typically have between 10 and 15% exposure to
gold and it's probably just tipping up to, you know, it's,
it's about 12 or 13% at the moment.
Is that 10 or 15% of what's invested or the total?
Of the total. Including the cash.
Yeah. Total portfolio including the
cash, Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Which is probably one of the
bigger, bigger exposures we've got to individual commodities
as, as you'd expect given the way it's gone.
But our exposure is, you know, West Gold, Northern Star and and
the Grey we've owned until until recently and, and we'll probably
roll into, you know, another producer.
So we haven't really gone down. I mean, we've looked at we, you
know, we've been an investor in Spartan during the year for a,
for a period of time. You know, I think some of the
emerging projects like Catalyst and Oribanda have have done
really well. But we've, you know, at the
moment we're sitting in the in the bigger producers.
How do you how do you look at Capricorn?
Like the the yeah, it's one of the like you look at how like
it's performance recently, it's always been traded at a high.
Yeah, a high multiple yeah. But it you know, it keeps on
going up. So it's like as a yeah.
And, you know, and the, you know, potential plans to expand.
Yeah. Carla Windell, everyone says,
oh, look, it's gonna get deeper and might get deeper and higher
strip and get a bit more difficult.
Well, you can just expand the plant and maybe lower the cost
and offset that then with me and Gibson coming on.
But it's just one of the ones that it really never gets talked
about because everyone trades on such a high multiple.
But yeah, it's like possibly one of the safer bets.
Well, I. Agree.
Yeah, I agree. Capricorn is, is the gold
company I want to own, but I don't own it right now.
And the reason for that I don't own it is I do have some
concerns about the, the, the permitting of of Mount Gibson
and how quickly that'll come through and potentially delay.
But you know, if you look at it and maybe comparing it a bit
with with Genesis as you go, well, you know, today it's
producing 150,100 and 15,000 ounces.
You crank up Carla Winder a bit that maybe gets it close to 150
and you bring on Mount Gibson, you know, then you're 300,000 oz
or or slightly more stay within a three, three year time frame,
something like that. But the point of difference is
going to be their costs are going to be low and their free
cash generation is going to be really significant.
And I think that, you know, that combination is really
compelling. You know, I think when you look
at it on multiples at the moment, you know that the
markets factoring in a value from Mount Gibson that doesn't
flow through in in earnings, right.
So you got to be careful on that.
But yeah, so I so I like it and I'm just looking for an
opportunity to buy it and obviously management team is as
good as going around. Yeah.
How do you think about paying up for management?
So they're they're obviously the the name and you've also
mentioned Raleigh develops one of your biggest holdings as
well. Yeah, I mean the Capricorn is at
6 bucks last time I looked. So you, you are you are really
paying up for it. Can you talk a bit to that?
Well, you know, I think, I think the benefit of backing people
that have a strong track record of delivery is twofold.
One is they track good people into the business.
I think we've seen that with development, but also with
Capricorn and and Genesis. But you also know that if, if,
if something unusual happens, they're, they have an ability to
raise capital, right? So, so in the resource space,
you know, your risk is you're developing an asset, you're not
generating an income stream and, and something goes wrong and
you, you're struggling, whereas you know that the market is
always going to support those guys.
So, you know, I think that's a benefit.
So I think, you know, Genesis is a good example when, you know,
when Rally stepped in and implemented his plan, you know,
the market immediately applied a premium there.
Capricorn's the same, develops the same.
So I think there is value there. You gotta be careful because
that premium can be eroded if if things change.
But but backing good people, I think is is is a good strategy.
We we have the same effect when we have Alley on an episode lot.
We get a. Few premium.
We've just gotta have a mug on there and it just JC.
Premium. Yeah, sorry, sorry to interrupt
you. Probably the other guy that I've
mentioned in that group is, is Chris Ellison from Minrez,
right. And obviously Minrez is, is
under pressure. And you know, it's one of those
companies which is in our investable universe.
There's been times where you know where where we've owned it
and but then it got a bit expensive, but now you can kind
of see this. It's already boxed by.
There's an emerging opportunity whether it's quite now I'm not
sure, but you know from a from a medium term perspective, it's
the stock that you want to own because you know you'd back him
on what he's done. Old Ding Ding myself on means
and develop. Their Gee, you are and
everything Jason, I just. Spread myself too quickly that's
the problem. But I guess the thing
interesting thing with with Chris, yeah he is very much in
that sort of universe as well about you know ability to you
know execute and get things done raise capital that but how much
lower can means go? Well.
Yeah, exactly where does it? Where does it sort of.
Yeah, stop. Yeah.
Well, you know you look at the business mix, you've got lithium
again he's got he's got some good assets there, but it's
bodge mean price at $800 a tonne US means no ones really making
any money right. So, so the markets not applying
a whole lot of value to that asset notwithstanding, you know,
I'm of the view that it can't really be sustained at these
levels and that prices will move higher over the next year or
two. So, you know, so the market's
discounted for that. On the iron ore side, you've had
iron ore prices come back from, you know, 12130 back to just
under 100. So again, that's not helping him
as he's bringing on, you know, his new iron ore project.
So you can see that at the, it's really the commodity level that
he's being impacted. But you know, looking forward
you'd go spot domain prices are probably near their low.
Iron oil prices I don't think have a lot of downside beyond
$90.00 a tonne. So there's an emerging
opportunity there. Actually, while we sort of
touched on developers, well, we noticed that that's obvious sort
of top five holdings. That's the one that sort of
remained pretty consistent between, you know, last year and
this year. But Develop is has, you know,
come off, you know, 25% in that year too.
So why do you feel that this is important to, you know, stay
high conviction in someone like Develop?
Yeah. Well, so, so between then and
now, we've kind of been in and out a few times.
Yeah, because you're right, it's one of those stocks where
probably more than other ones we own, there was a backfilling of
actual earnings and you know and and operations.
It was really for the early stage.
So when it ran up particularly strongly, we took some profits
and then we sort of re entered. I think obviously what's good
about it now. I think if you look at what
they've achieved over the last year, I think they've made a lot
of progress on their mining service business.
And really the outlook for that's only improving with, for
example, you know, Bellevue and what's happening there and you
know, and, and other operations. And I think that you know, on,
on Woodlawn that's, that's also looking as a, as a pretty good
operation. Then obviously traffic, you're
also signing up for some offtakes.
Yeah, it didn't get really much activity after that.
That was probably a pretty K announcement with that that
financing deal. But what do you what do you
think the investors are waiting for?
Like what do you think is going to be the cut?
It's a yeah. Is it the FID is going to be
sort of the? Well, I mean, I think so, I
think people are now saying it's there, it's ready to go.
There's no really hindrance. It's just, you know, like to see
copper prices a bit higher and and then press the button so.
It's set it like fucking set up beautifully in terms of all
developed ahead and at or and I think I think I think they said
they got about two years worth of production already already
developed. So in terms of so they.
Obviously. Got a, you know, up do up the
mill and everything to get it down.
But like in terms of a a mining side, yeah like should we just
freaking flown out once they once they do pull the trigger?
Well, that's just a risk that so much.
Yeah, Yeah. I think you're right, you know,
and and getting back to the question, why isn't the market
reacting? I think the market is very, it's
very earnings focused and it's very fundamental focused and
develops kind of stillwell, we've got a base business here,
but it's what we're going to do in the future.
So notwithstanding the funding is is locked away now.
So I think it will come as as market sentiment improves.
Yeah, yeah, I think it's it's it's shaping up similar.
Oh, not really, because I suppose that in the Northern
Star journey, like Paulson's tipped along for ages and then
it was like, you know, Barrack assets, Newmont assets, bloody
bang, bang, bang. And that then it was flying.
So it's sort of, you know, Woodlawn sitting there.
Oh no, it's not getting mined yet, but it's like when there
may be a a flurry of activity inorganically that might come
yeah, for them and then it'll just start rolling.
I think he's proved probably except for Pioneer dime like
proved like a lot of discipline in the the Northern Star days
and when when he yeah, picked up a lot of things fucking pretty
cheap. And look at they're still mining
those assets today. Yeah, exactly.
Yeah, Pioneer Dime I think was a a good, good idea at the time,
but. It might be a good idea in the
future too, it's just not a good idea at the.
At the moment. At the moment, but like, it's
only going to take a frigging yeah, we're not even, as I said
at the start of the year when lithium like absolutely started
to shit itself. Everyone's like, look, this
could be a six to 18 months sort of downturn.
We're what, not 8, not 8 months in.
So what? We're still early in what could
potentially be a soft period for it.
So that one buddy knows where anything's.
Now we're all guessing, absolutely.
Some people guess better than others.
Where do you think copper has to kind of hold above for them to
make the call on Woodlawn? I think it's probably, you know,
somewhere between $4.00 and 4:50, you know, a pound,
probably 425, yeah, that kind of level.
Because and and that'll be pretty that's pretty heavily
contingent, I'd say because he wants to guarantee the price is
bloody high because I'm as soon as they start F.
Is it FRD or producing? I think the next payment to the.
Yeah, that's right. Yeah.
Not, not the the administrators, yeah.
Gets activated, Yeah. So I think they obviously want
the price to be bloody high so they don't get really hamstrung
by that. Yeah, it's 30 million or
something. Yeah, well, that's right.
I mean, I think that's top man. I think what you want to see is
some certainty about the sustainability of, of copper
prices. So rather than just to tick up
and and that probably relates to what's happening in China and
what's happening with the global economy.
But, you know, with interest rates near their near their peak
and likely to come down, particularly in the US, you
know, you can see better times, you know, moving into next year.
On, on the copper front, I mean, there's been heaps and news
since we spoke, you know, big, big end of town BHB, they
obviously went after Anglo then they actually signed up a deal
with, with Philo as well. Yeah.
And I think we spoke about Mac at the time, Sandfire, these
sorts of names, Firefly, where else you kinda looking around
and you spoke about your ability to, to look overseas before as
well. Is that something you're you're
tapping into for copper? Look, we, we've looked and this,
you know, we owned tech for a little while, which was partly,
you know, on the, on the shift to being a more pure copper
group. So we, you know, we've owned
capstone, but you know, often there's no easy way to play
copper globally because you've either got a big, typically
you've got a big exposure to South America or you've got an
exposure to somewhere like, you know, the DRC.
So, you know, we kept coming back to, you know, Mac and sand
fire and you know, you know, we can't own BHP and, and typically
we don't buy BHP for copper exposure.
It's really for, for, I know as you'd expect 70% of earnings,
but does give you give you give the ability to get some
explosion. Do you find it strange that like
a developer like Fireflies actually outperforming producers
or is it does that more of a comment on the the the asset
quality? Or it's more an exploration.
Yeah, it's a, it's an exploration project really.
Yeah. And that, that's quite unusual
because we've seen sort of quite the opposite in gold, right?
Yeah. I mean, you're right, the only
benefit is, you know, if, if you're in a commodity where
you've got a positive long term view, but the short term view
is, is, is struggling, you know what that means?
If you're a producer, you might not be making money And so, so
people don't want to be there. But if you've got a quality
asset that's going to be ideally producing it in a couple of
years in the in the future, then that can be a better way of play
it because there's, you know, there's not everyone's not
looking at the earnings and how that's falling in the short
term. Maddie, I think it's, I think
it's time to talk uranium. It's you time.
What a bloody Friday. Friday's a big day.
Everyone's a lot. That's just the fucking magic.
The calendars are on people's fridge that have just got 'cause
Adam prom announcement. Cause Adam prom announcement.
So it's gonna be an interesting one that yeah, you've done it.
How much were you in uranium? Much, Dave.
Yeah. So we we've probably got around
10% of the portfolio in uranium we have.
Last time we talked, how much were you much in at?
That we, well, we don't we'd own next Gen really for for years.
So I think it last year that was probably the only one we owned.
We've kind of rolled through that now and we own Denison and
Fission and actually we've just bought yellow cake, which is
which is more of the physical because the the discount to NTA
has actually opened up quite a lot.
Yeah, what's that one? Oh, I know because spots going
from like, you know, frigging 9 to 15% around that range.
And like that's what yellow cake was always 15%.
More. Yeah, it's about 2025, so yeah.
So, yeah, exactly. So one, so, so we're there and
you know, I think medium term, you know, we're, we're positive
on it. We think prices will go up and,
and, and there'll be some opportunity and, and there's a
relatively small number of of decent sized uranium stocks.
So, so, so we think we need exposure there.
What can we kind of read into you, you know with next Gen your
biggest holding this time last year to now no longer, What is
that evaluation? Was that a management, was that
a permitting timelines type of thing?
Why won't you sell out? It's a good bet because it's
going down shit lights. Yeah, well, no.
And, and, and we probably, you know, we didn't sell at the top,
but it's really a relative valuation, right?
So, so Denison's also in the Athabasca Basin vision we own,
which isn't as you, as you know is next door.
So we just thought there's better value in, in, in those,
in those names. Obviously next gen's done a
capital raise. Ultimately, when it gets to
approval, there'll be another big capital raise you'd expect.
I think you guys have commented on, on some of the, you know,
management decisions, which I think the market has also made
it, you know, has, has, has impacted on the market.
But you know, our view is, you know, we're looking at our
relative value and and hence switching to Denison and and
vision. What and do you, we talked about
yesterday that Atha deal, Atha's been picking up bloody ground
ever. It's just this big, the bitter
exploration mania in the Adabaska Basin starting to
happen. Like when, when that sort of
commences, whether it's like over there and, or in Australia
or all over the world, similar to what was happening with
lithium. Yeah.
How do you approach that side of things?
Is it like too, too, too risky, too volatile or like do you
start doubling in that sort of stuff?
Look, I think in in uranium you need to be in the bigger players
because you know, what you've seen is to, to get a project, to
get a project through approvals is difficult.
And then you know, the, the, the whole build out takes a long
period of time. So, and, and I guess more
generally what you've got is, is globally there's actually a, a
lot of uranium out there. It's just the, the, the
permitting and approvals and and build process that takes so
long. So, you know, my view is that
the best time to be in uranium is really probably in the next
couple of years, maybe next three to five years where supply
is still constrained and demand is starting to take off as as
nuclear builds its position as space flow powers.
Yeah, speaking to that sort of permitting and approvals thing,
I mean, and not to get too political about it, but how do
you see uranium, nuclear more broadly playing out in the
Australian landscape and perhaps becoming a some sort of part of
our energy mix or you know, even just having the ability to mine
it and export it in in WA. How?
How do you say that? Yeah.
I mean, you know, I think Australia has one of the biggest
uranium resources globally, right?
And. Lot of and a lot of, obviously
with Jabaluka and big dams and big contributor to that, yeah.
So I think in, in this day and age where we're moving away from
fossil fuels, it, it seems logical to be able to, to, to
access that and, and sell it internationally and also
developing in, you know, an industry in Australia.
So, you know, I'm, I'm supportive of that, but I think
also think it's part of the mix, right?
I think, you know, you should account for part of the
solution. I think there's obviously scope
for renewables and there's scope for gas.
Is is all supporting? Sources.
What do you, what do you think? Cuz Adam problem's gonna say on
Friday. What do you think's gonna And
cuz if you and when you mate, when you're the stewards of
other people's capital and you're betting on uranium, like
that's like going into Friday and you've got the weekend like
whether people are long or short, like yeah, what comes out
Monday in the market like it's a it's a yeah, pretty volatile
play based on one company speaker.
What do you what do you think is going to happen?
Yeah. Look, look, my view is if you
look at what the analysts are saying, they're saying
production is going to be at one level, but their target and what
they put out will be at slightly higher level.
Yeah. And then they won't achieve that
target, right. So that's.
Irrelevant at the moment. You know, so, so you know, I, I
think there'll be a downgrade just because of what was out
there previously was, was at the high end.
It probably won't be as big a downgrade as the market's
expecting. But I think as we get through
the next 12 months and you know into 25, I think ultimately the
outcome of production will be below the target and and
probably more in line with where, where the market's AT.
So you'd suggest also from from because that a Prom's
perspective that having the market react by forcing up
prices is probably a good thing. Yeah, Yeah.
So. And I think, and I think to
understand because that a prom as a stock is something that
people have to do in terms of if they piss off the stock market.
Yeah, they don't not saying they don't care, but 75% of the mines
are owned by the Kazakhstan state.
Yeah, what you say on the stock market is the 25% free float
Yeah. So who are they going to look
after the most? They're going to look after the
state. They're going to do whatever is
in the best interest, Yeah, of the state.
And if they have to answer to the share market, because for
the other 25%, they'll be like, it's all good.
We we've got we're looking after the big Daddy.
Yeah. And and that's like it's trying,
I'm being sort of trying to wrap my head around like what's the
best for that side. And the the mineral tax is
probably the example of the lifted rates for the MAT over
there is the best you would think the best for Kazakhstan to
make more money. Yeah, maybe at the expense of
Cos Adam Prom. Yeah, the stock.
Yeah, So, yeah. And there's also the sulfuric
acid issue, which, you know, which is another constraint.
So I think it's fascinating, I think and it would be
interesting to see how that how that all plays out.
And we, you know, we saw with, you know, Kamiko's result
recently, you know, the market, you know, took took that
negatively. So it's it's one of those
markets where you got a small number of companies that
dominate production and what they do has a big impact.
Yeah. And the fact that like if they
do say a lift, say they're they even if they do promise a lift
in pounds for 2025, it's all going to Russia anyway because
it's got all that burden off score six and seven.
Yeah, I think for the first two or three years, that's all goes
to Russia anyway. So it's completely
debottlenecked from the western world and even China to to
integrate and China just announced another bloody 6
reactors yeah plan to be built. So it's, yeah, it's a
fascinating. Well, exactly.
And I think that's, that's really the, the point isn't it
is, is look at the demand outlook in the next few years in
particular. It's very strong and supply is
going to struggle to keep up. So I think that's really the
opportunity. Yeah, very good mate.
I've got a couple of bloody. These are a bit random.
I don't know if you're into mining services, but like, and
you know, not, not telling you how to run the fun, but there
might be some IPO opportunities coming up next year.
And I'm thinking maybe MMS and Silverstone, if they actually,
if they actually float. And Dave, look, we've got a
Direct Line if you do wanna get a bit of seed, cause in terms of
two sensational businesses that, you know, I'm predicting might
go on the market next year. Do you say like you'd you'd take
a bit of skin? Oh, bit of skin.
I mean just like I I wanna be the lead manager on.
That maybe that could be the first Test job that could be,
mate. Well, yeah, you're talking about
the global energy transition, Dave.
No, like Silverstein are at the bloody forefront of it mate in
terms of mining the critical minerals to get it it MMS are
getting it out of the ground everywhere for the bloody.
Have you seen what do you think of the old MMS?
This is actually a market related question.
These small mining companies that are actually doing these JV
arrangements with mining services contractors to get up
and going in bit of a hybrid debt arrangement in turn instead
of going to a bank. Well, I, I think it's, I think
it's good. Obviously if you can't get your,
your, your debt or your equity in, in another way, you know,
those kind of partnerships can work well.
So more generally on mining services, we can invest in
mining services companies. And I think one of the benefits
of mining service companies is you kind of you step away from
the commodity price, right. So it's really volume driven so,
so when they come on. Bloody Silverstein at MMS, we've
already got your first investor for the IPR sorted.
Premier RPO. Pleasure.
Do pleasure doing business for the desk.
Yeah. Beauty, right, JD?
You can bring it back to a more serious level if you'd like.
You know, I love it, Maddie, you you won't be too busy on the
desk because those ones will sell themselves.
There are a couple other commodities we've we've got to
talk about. So one in your top five holdings
is Coronado. And yeah, I just want to start
this going from a broader level. Metco, what do you think?
In demand, supply and then hone in on the half year which we
were chatting about before we started recording.
Yeah. So, you know, I think a big
change even over the last 12 months is, is a better
understanding in the market of the difference between thermal
coal and metcoal and metcoal's role in, you know, steel
production and the fact that, you know, it's kind of a
necessary commodity. So, so I think what you're
saying is from an investment perspective, that is becoming
more acceptable, which, which, which is good.
What you're not seeing though, is a whole lot of money going
into, into new projects. So it's that whole, you know,
demand is actually stayed, you know, very strong.
And I think we'll increase on the back of what's happening in
India, which is an increasing bar of, of Australian Medco,
whereas supply is going to be constrained because it's very
hard to get new mines permitted and approved and, and, and old
mines are starting to, to run off.
So, and Australia has, you know, among the highest quality met
coal mines in the world, right? So, so the from the commodity
level looks good. Coronado as a, as a player in
that, you know, we also really like, it's probably had a bit of
an up and down kind of history. But I think under the existing
management team, particularly the, the second quarter result
was really good at Cara in, in Queensland where I think you saw
mining costs go from $125.00 a tonne down to about $95 a tonne.
And they're pushing that down to so in the 80s.
And that's partly because they had a lot of material movement
they had to do and sort of optimise the way the mine is
being operated. But it's all very well to say
you're going to do that, but then actually deliver it and
show the results. I think it's an EBIT to
enterprise value multiple of, you know, three times, something
like that. So they get this right.
From a value perspective it looks good, but also the
commodity level looks good. Well, it was everyone starting
to lose their patience a bit with Coronado.
Like everyone was like it's like a bit of a noted as that
underperformer for the Met, the Met car.
Well, yeah, it sounds like it's. Yeah, I think.
Possibly turning around. Yeah.
Well, exactly. And and I think the market is
still saying, well, that's a good first step, but let's see
you, let's see you follow through here.
The the other factor with Coronado is always under
takeover for, you know, sort of a rolling takeover for a period
of time and that's now sort of dropped off.
But what it highlights and I think we're seeing that more
generally is that there is demand for good quality met coal
assets and you've got a major shareholder in Coronado that is
probably a seller. So you know, you've got the
added kicker of something that looks cheap, but with corporate,
corporate opportunity. And then another one I'm keen to
chat about rare earths. So meteoric I saw was a holding
last time, last time you reported your, your holdings and
that they've, you know, had a pretty, pretty tough few months
of it. Not just them, but you look
across the the rare earths and I think, you know, Linus is the
the good one to tune into to get a feel for where this market is
kind of at. But what, what are you sort of
feeling on that side of things? Obviously you're at the whims of
China to a large extent. How do you sort of see that
playing out? Yeah, it's, it's a good
question. And it probably comes back to
what we were talking about at the outset around, you know,
observe, react rather than predict.
And I think the view we got to, you know, for most of this year
was, you know, rarest MDPR prices were really low and do we
need to be here? And are we better off not trying
to sort of predict that a turn around might come, but wait
until that turn around happens and then re re enter?
So we haven't been in liners for some time.
You know, we're looking at, at meteoric and we actually bought
a small holding just about the time of the, the capital raise.
And I think the Brazilian rare earth industry is, is
fascinating because the potential to reduce the
operating costs in the industry is significant.
So it's, you know, I, I think it's, it's one of those sectors
where the, the commodity prices depressed, the negative is you
got processing and you've got the raw material dominated by
China, which is never, never a place you want to go to if you
can avoid it. But but rare earths are just so
critical and there's potential opportunity by the really good
quality assets at at a cheap price.
So, you know, Lioness will keep watching media.
We've got a small holding and and really interested to see
what comes out of Brazil there. Yeah, with the with Brazil, like
everyone's talking about lot lowering the operating costs,
but I assume that is labour a lot cheaper over there.
Yeah, it it would because like they talk about like obviously
the hydro powers. Yeah, a lot cheaper.
Yeah, but you think of I wouldn't imagine, and correct me
if I'm wrong, if a like a rare earth project and even even the
lithium projects over there a lot the the spot like lithium
projects, what they DMS only they crush to six mil yeah, so
you can't say they're going to use shit loads of power for
crushing and then rarest probably wouldn't use shit loads
of power compared to the gold processing plant grinding down
to 75 Micron. But I assume the labour is.
A well. Bloody saving as well.
Well, I, I think you're right. And you know, I mean, and we'll
probably talk on, on Pilbara and, and Latin, which is, which
is in Brazil as well. But you know, what's attractive
about that location is, is you've got, you know, cheap
labour costs, you've got cheap hydro costs, you've got, you
know, relatively rapid approvals process so.
Which should lead to cheaper construction costs.
Exactly, construction costs are lower as well, right?
But but just the nature of the of the ionic clays is the the
actual extraction process is much is much easier as well.
Because I think equities, rare earth equities of sort of kept
sliding even though the NDPR prices stayed pretty flat.
I think NDPR has gone up a bit, 43 to 47 last.
Time well yeah but but even at 50 at 50 bucks no one's really
making money right so that's that's the issue it's it's
difficult so it. Doesn't matter if it goes up or
down, you're just losing money either way.
Yeah, and or not mining. And just on that as well day of
sort of mentioning Brazil more broadly and you know, Pilbara's
foray into South America, you know, there was a big a big
article in in the West about Dale singing his praises for for
Brazil. I mean, you know, a big move
like a major like that. What do you think that and in
particularly a lot of what's been happening in in Australia
this week as far as the whole permitting and approval sort of
landscape, you know, what do you think that that and the
Pilbara's move sort of says about it all?
Yeah. Look, so I'm, I think it's a
good, I think it's a good deal for Pilbara.
You know, what they're doing is with very little dilution to
their equity, they're adding a project that could potentially
be, you know, four hundred 450,000 tonnes of spodumene a
year. But more importantly, if you
take a view that spot mean prices might stay lower than
where we think they where they think they should be, It's a
project that's going to be at the lower end of the cost curve.
And it's for those reasons. It's low labour, it's low power
cost, it's planning approvals, low capital costs.
So you know, for a relatively small outlay, I think it's a,
it's a good part of the portfolio.
And you know, there's been a lot of talk about them looking at
something like Patriot in in Canada, but you know, and
that's, that's, you know, a fabulous project, but you're
talking a whole lot of CapEx and you know, and maybe you know, 5
to 10 years away. So.
So it's just an easy bolt. On for him, I think what about
Sigma, do you think that's going to be in the mix?
It makes sense obviously, but is do you think a Pilbara of bet on
Brazil versus Quebec effectively?
I don't think so. I, I think it's opportunistic
that you know, I think they want to obviously they want to have
an exposure there. Whether they want to double up
and buy Sigma, I'm not sure. So I wouldn't, I wouldn't bank
on that, but but one will tell. There and that's the thing they
for the amount of the what is it 6.8% shares they issued lot they
could yeah, could just sit there for a while, yeah, but they've
got it. Yeah.
Yeah, exactly. And they got the optionality.
Yeah. Yeah, exactly.
Ding Ding on a bit Pilbara as well.
Sorry. Yeah, You like the bloody ATF?
Yeah. The GCE.
TAA, bit closer to home. Dave, what are you thinking in
Lyntown? I noticed I think yesterday
morning a bit of an interesting line went through of stock.
I think in the morning there's a decent amount of stock change in
hands. How are you kind of thinking
Trading 80? Cents.
There was, I think 50 million shares, which is, you know,
they're a bit under a buck, so not a crazy amount, but above
average. Yeah.
Look, look, I think you've got to give the management team
there a lot of credit for what they've delivered over the last
year, right? In a difficult market.
You know, they've basically got to the point they are now on
cost and on on budget and they've, and they've put some
funding away, right. So I think that's really good.
But I think what we all know is that commissioning a lithium
project is bloody difficult and, and it's going to, and it's
going to take longer and it's probably going to cost more than
than you'd want. And then on top of that, you've
got to spot to me in price at $800 a tonne, right?
So, so my view is, you know, I give them credit for what
they've achieved so far, but do I need to own it right now?
I, I don't. So I'll, I'll watch it through
that process. I think if you say where's this
business going to be in five years time, I think it'll be
there, it'll be producing, it'll be a fantastic asset.
But I think probably now it's a bit bit too early to jump in.
Yeah, I think oh what what is old Miss Reinhardt up to?
That's yeah, that's and I think we talked about like the the
control she's got on that now no one else is going to have a
crack at it. Bloody look what happened to oh
it probably saved out album. Imagine if Albemarle.
Yeah, it got it through. And I'm sure like if you, if you
go back in history, imagine if like Longtown entertained the
original Albemarle deals that were like $1.80, imagine if that
actually got over the line. I reckon they'd at the time they
were thinking not worth more than that.
But they would never have envisaged this was going to
happen to them just cause of the, the mania.
But it's just turned so quick and they've just gone through
the whole greenfields process straight into a shit pricing
market. So yeah, yeah, so bloody do feel
for him. That's for.
Sure. Yeah.
No, it's you're exactly right. Hindsight's a wonderful thing.
It sure is Dave. I reckon I'd like to close off
with a a couple of lessons from the last year and I reckon we
should do an another overrated, underrated segment as well.
So what do you feel in the last year, some lessons you've
learnt, you know, commodity or equity related?
Well, things can change really quickly, right?
So you look at lithium, what it shows is predicting what's going
to happen is, is, is, is difficult.
So, you know, I look at lithium and when it was $400.00 a tonne,
you know, 2020, no one thought it was going to 8000 splodge
rent and and then no one thought it was going to 8000 back to,
you know, 800. So, so I think that's number
one. I think probably the second
point is, is resource sector investing is all about quality
or bodies, right. So it's mitigating risk and,
and, and buying good quality stuff that will, that will, that
will survive and as an investor see you through good and bad
markets. Unless you're Capricorn and you
can make a point. 8.9 grand. Yeah, well.
The. Exceptions.
Yeah, buddy, the as they've been doubted.
The Unicorn, yeah. And another one on the, the sort
of rapid fire random question round.
I'm keen to know, Dave, what's the, what's the commodity that
kind of intrigues you most of the market that you know, you
think there's the most to kind of learn about and get excited
about? Yeah, it's a good question.
But you know, I, I tend to focus on the bigger commodity.
So, you know, I think copper, copper is really interesting
just because of the, you know, the impact it has on the global
economy and it's importance to the global economy.
And it's hard to see how demand might keep increasing and supply
will be constrained. I think met coals kind of kind
of interesting as well. Gold is is probably 1, which is
harder to clarify, you know, where, where demand come from
from and where the buying comes from and and how the market kind
of prices it. So, so they're probably, they're
probably a few. 'Cause how do you like, how do
you analyse gold? Yeah, like 'cause it's not a
supply demand thing. To me, yeah, To me, there's
three buckets, right? We strive gold first is sort of
the the retail demand from primarily coming out of China
and India, which is for jewellery and, and, and as a
store of wealth really. But, but it's really jewellery
and that market has been very steady for a long period of
time. Good buying out of places like
China where, where the, where the the public is saying I
wouldn't mind having some of my wealth in, in gold jewellery
just because it helps, you know, helps me keep, keep control of
it. And that's been stable.
What you're seeing more recently is as, as gold price goes up,
demand is actually coming down because it costs more to buy,
right? But but in general, that's a
stable market. The next bucket is, is central
bank buying. And if you look at what's
happened over the last two years, what has driven the gold
price has been a surge in central bank buying,
particularly from China, but also from those global economies
that don't necessarily want to hold U.S. dollars or U.S. dollar
assets. So it's places like Turkey and
Uzbekistan and Russia and stuff. And so that that's really driven
the price up to date what we're seeing now.
And then the third bucket is the investor ETF market.
And really for the last three years, there's been net outflows
on a month by month basis. It's taken a spike when COVID
happened, took a spike when we had a banking crisis, inverted
commerce in the US which lasted you know, a month or something.
But in but apart from that, outflows had been pretty steady
going forward. What you saw in the last six
months is you started to see some inflows from most a lot of
you know, European markets, but but not from the US and really
only in the last month is you've seen the US investor come into
the ETF market. So.
So what that says to me is. Is there's increasing investor
demand, more broad based for gold and that's corresponded
with the price ticking up? What, what's the, what's the
relative sizes of those buckets? Would you say I think that
you're waiting? Yeah, so, so the the big one
would be, well, I think they're all pretty big.
The ETF side is probably the, you know, the smallest but but
also the most the most variable on a month by month basis.
But I'm going to put that down as the most interesting thing
I've heard all year in terms of learning so about how the how
the best explain the gold market.
Oh, that'll be get you short. You can get a free T shirt.
Appreciate that. And I reckon that opens up the
the perfect first overrated or underrated question actually.
So I mean, it's not your first rodeo, Dozo.
Overrated, underrated or neutral?
So Aussie dollar gold over 4000 bucks an ounce in a year.
Fuck, I'm not far away. No, it's not less than 10%.
So underrated. Underrated.
Yeah. How about iron ore?
Does it, you know, sort of does it hold under US100 in one
year's time? No.
So I don't know how I translate to underrated or overrated, but
I I think it'll be around $100 in into a month's time, yeah.
We'll go neutral then. Yeah, neutral, neutral.
Yeah. Do you reckon the the ASX
resource index is higher or lower than where it currently is
in one year's time? It'll be higher.
Small Cap Gold, Australia. I think, I think you've got to
be, I think it's underrated. So I think it's hard to see that
disconnect in value between the big and the smalls can continue.
So if the gold price maintains anywhere near it is where it is
now, I think you'll see money flowing.
Part 2 of that small cap gold M and I either between themselves
or from bigger. Absolutely in caps, absolutely
so underrated. It's and I think there's a
recognition that needs to happen and and it's obviously easier
than than developing something from scratch.
So I I think it's underrated. Broadstar might just merge with
that every company instead of the next five years.
Yeah, it's. A good deal flow Brazil or Minis
juris is a jurisdiction. Look, I think it's I think it's
fairly rated. You know, I like, you know, I
like Brazil for the reasons we've talked about, but I don't
think you can classify as a tier one location, right.
It's still not without risk. How about Argentina?
We've seen a bit of action there.
Do you think that's you know that the risk is overrated or
underrated? I think it's probably
underrated, but again, there is still a risk there and I think
the risk is has come back. I think the new, the new
government there is outlining a plan that's more supportive of
mining. But but things can change,
right? So there's no lifetime
guarantees in places like that. Permitting and approvals risk.
I think it's, it's underrated and and I think it's going to,
it's going to be discussed more in the next year.
If you if you looked at 1 theme that's going to play out of the
next 12 months in Australia in particular, I think it's going
to be that. Why do we actually haven't
covered it all yet, Nicole? Yeah, it's, it's, it's, it's
tough. It's, it's tough.
So I think we all are aware of the story, you know, increasing
production out of out of Indonesia.
You know, I think the project to keep an eye on there is the
Centaurus project again in Brazil.
I think they've done a great job there.
If there's one nickel sulphide project that should get off the
ground, it's that still should make reasonable money at current
levels and I think there will be demand for it.
So I think it'd be fascinating to see how that rolls out over
the next year and whether they can get party to come here at
the asset level and and really get that happening.
Is there is there anything on the if you looked at like the
the spacing between nickel booms in history, like is there you
know, we've just it's it's live, but it can obviously stay live
for a while and then it's it's very obviously yeah bust Yeah,
but. Yeah.
I mean, you know, the, the expansion in production out out
of Indonesia is, you know, from a historical perspective, you
know, the, the volume growth is substantial.
Now I think demand is also increasing, you know, raise me
rapidly as well, but there's a lot of uncertainty there, so.
GCETF is a Ding on Centaurus. Do you think Meadows X the the
company is underrated or overrated?
I got to do the Ding Ding because we actually own it in
the front. So I think it's underrated, you
know, capped at 380 mil, 180 million cash Tim prices current
level it's making probably free cash 25 a quarter, 100 million a
year. Still got a $36 million
convertible note with Cyprium. So summer parts, it looks looks
good. Cyprium that that the what they
do off take. The wankall Bruce.
Yeah, well, I think there's something today.
I didn't see the detail I. Haven't seen the 1:00 today.
Yeah. I think we're all out.
All right, bloody sensational, mate.
Anything. Anything you want to talk about
specifically? Anything you want to bring to
the table. I think I'm all talked out, but,
but, but, you know, keep doing what you're doing.
It's, it's good to have a, you know, a voice in the industry
that's that's out there every day, keeping people informed of
what's going on. So, so well done.
We're having fun. Yeah, bloody good fun.
It's like, it's like talking driving back from Cal, from
Diggers. Find a car with JD and JC
talking stocks. Yeah.
Alright. What a what a day.
Yeah. What a 7 hours of it.
Didn't even need Guns and Roses on the music to keep me awake or
anything. Yeah, right.
Oh, good on your day. I appreciate your time as
always. Babe.
We're gonna we're gonna have you back in end of the month doing a
bit of a special with looking. Forward to it.
Oh God. Bloody much for you there Jimmy.
Send me some royalties when you again, right.
Thanks for all the bloody Speaking of royalties, bloody
Axis modern technology flicking us some royalties every now and
then and and the the IP, the potential IP as we talked about
MMS and Silverstone. Apologies if you get inbound
calls about those. The seed.
MMS at Silverstone, we've got Verify spec, power and
technology, DSI, underground CR Insurance, Greenland equipment,
K drill. Get a spark chart up here as
well. Hooteru money miners.
Hooteru. Thanks, Dave.
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