1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:04,080 Righto buddy Borders, welcome to another yarn bought to you by 2 00:00:04,080 --> 00:00:06,920 the best resource in bloody drill hole survey 3 00:00:06,920 --> 00:00:10,920 instrumentation axis mine and technology the trusted advisor 4 00:00:11,200 --> 00:00:14,760 and we've got one of the look. I'm just gonna put him out there 5 00:00:14,760 --> 00:00:18,520 as one of the best bloody resource fund managers gown 6 00:00:18,520 --> 00:00:22,760 around Dave Franklin, Argonaut Co, head of Argonaut Funds 7 00:00:22,760 --> 00:00:25,320 management. Mate, you you will not get an 8 00:00:25,320 --> 00:00:29,920 intro like that ever. You have to you have to pay for 9 00:00:29,920 --> 00:00:31,840 that shit. Usually you get titled like 10 00:00:31,840 --> 00:00:32,800 that. How are you copper? 11 00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:36,600 I'm good, Maddie and Hailey and and and JD, thanks for having me 12 00:00:36,600 --> 00:00:37,480 on today. Oh. 13 00:00:37,600 --> 00:00:39,400 JD back. You're obviously still making 14 00:00:39,400 --> 00:00:42,240 money if you're still coming on. So, well, there's no one going. 15 00:00:42,440 --> 00:00:44,320 People don't come on if you're losing money with them. 16 00:00:45,200 --> 00:00:47,520 Yeah. What what I find is there's 17 00:00:47,520 --> 00:00:49,560 times in the market where you're making money and there's times 18 00:00:49,560 --> 00:00:52,920 in the market where you just try not to lose money and, and, and 19 00:00:52,920 --> 00:00:54,640 the last year's been a bit like that, right? 20 00:00:54,640 --> 00:00:58,000 It's just hanging in there. Ah, very, very good mate throw 21 00:00:58,000 --> 00:01:02,840 Sue she throws me iPad JC 'cause I'll I will 100% go rogue as 22 00:01:02,840 --> 00:01:09,040 anything if I've got no God yes JD churning in from over over E 23 00:01:09,320 --> 00:01:12,080 yeah E US. I, I couldn't miss it. 24 00:01:12,080 --> 00:01:13,880 And I was actually, yeah, I was excited. 25 00:01:13,880 --> 00:01:16,920 I'd listened back to the chat we did almost a year ago now, Dave. 26 00:01:16,920 --> 00:01:21,160 And it was, yeah, interesting to to reflect back on the, the way 27 00:01:21,160 --> 00:01:23,520 of the world back then and how things are now. 28 00:01:23,520 --> 00:01:27,800 So yeah, maybe maybe keen to start with just what you're sort 29 00:01:27,800 --> 00:01:30,400 of sentiment check was at at Diggers. 30 00:01:30,400 --> 00:01:32,480 We bumped into each other a couple of weeks ago there now 31 00:01:32,480 --> 00:01:35,480 and that's always a good place to get a feel for the the market 32 00:01:35,480 --> 00:01:38,360 as it kind of relates to what we follow in commodities. 33 00:01:38,360 --> 00:01:39,560 What what were you kind of thinking? 34 00:01:39,560 --> 00:01:40,600 What? A week I dive. 35 00:01:40,840 --> 00:01:43,640 It was a great week. Yeah, as as it always is. 36 00:01:43,680 --> 00:01:47,520 But you know, I, I think Diggers this year was, was what it used 37 00:01:47,520 --> 00:01:48,800 to be. It's all about gold. 38 00:01:49,640 --> 00:01:51,800 And I think if you look at where commodities gone over the last 39 00:01:51,800 --> 00:01:55,000 year, you know, everything's, you know, a lot of the base 40 00:01:55,000 --> 00:01:57,880 metals have been tough. Lithium I'm sure we'll talk 41 00:01:57,880 --> 00:02:00,920 about today has been catastrophic. 42 00:02:01,080 --> 00:02:04,800 And but gold's up 20% and particularly the gold producers 43 00:02:04,800 --> 00:02:07,520 have been up very strongly. And perhaps if there's, if 44 00:02:07,520 --> 00:02:10,160 there's one disconnect is the smaller golds really haven't 45 00:02:10,160 --> 00:02:12,200 moved. But you know, diggers all about 46 00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:16,000 gold and a lot of the the management there strutting 47 00:02:16,000 --> 00:02:19,640 around and reclaiming their position at the top of the heap. 48 00:02:19,640 --> 00:02:21,080 Feeling pretty good about themselves. 49 00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:25,120 Hey, yeah, did you find the I think I repeated the repeating 50 00:02:25,120 --> 00:02:28,680 myself a bit here, but the common theme I felt from 51 00:02:28,680 --> 00:02:31,240 Diggers, there wasn't many high conviction longs. 52 00:02:32,080 --> 00:02:34,800 Like people were like, right, what's the bet at the moment? 53 00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:36,800 What's the bet? And like there wasn't like a 54 00:02:36,800 --> 00:02:39,800 real, you know, 'cause you things like Spartan have already 55 00:02:39,800 --> 00:02:42,440 had the run and people like, well, we're we're sort of, we're 56 00:02:42,480 --> 00:02:45,960 we're still long, but it's like it's there wasn't that really? 57 00:02:45,960 --> 00:02:49,160 What's the next big thing? Well, I, I think you're right 58 00:02:49,200 --> 00:02:52,200 and and that's in the gold sector, but it's all, it's also 59 00:02:52,200 --> 00:02:53,680 really across the resource of space. 60 00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:57,240 So what you tend to see is an emerging opportunity. 61 00:02:57,240 --> 00:03:00,000 Everyone jumps on it and it and it rewrites pretty quickly. 62 00:03:00,800 --> 00:03:03,280 But but I think you're right. It's, you know, it's a difficult 63 00:03:03,280 --> 00:03:07,120 market to to find those, you know, special stories. 64 00:03:07,440 --> 00:03:10,800 Any any other anything other than goal that was sort of your 65 00:03:10,800 --> 00:03:12,760 fair what what gets a silver medal for diggers? 66 00:03:12,760 --> 00:03:14,200 What was getting down about a bit? 67 00:03:14,400 --> 00:03:19,680 Yeah, look, you know, you know, I, I thought some of the, you 68 00:03:19,680 --> 00:03:23,080 know, I, I thought the, the Pilbara presentation and, and 69 00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:25,160 Patriot were were good presentations. 70 00:03:26,000 --> 00:03:28,240 And you know, I think what's interesting about lithium is 71 00:03:28,240 --> 00:03:30,960 where the splodge mean prices in particular suggests there's not 72 00:03:30,960 --> 00:03:33,320 a whole lot of downside. I think in the equities perhaps 73 00:03:33,640 --> 00:03:37,960 there can be. But as a market, you know, it's 74 00:03:37,960 --> 00:03:40,080 getting interesting because it's way into the cost curve. 75 00:03:40,080 --> 00:03:43,360 And you know, I think as a resource sector investor, what 76 00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:47,040 you're looking for is to buy the really high quality assets at a 77 00:03:47,040 --> 00:03:49,600 good price. And it's these kind of markets 78 00:03:49,600 --> 00:03:51,040 where those opportunities emerge. 79 00:03:51,040 --> 00:03:52,360 So, you know, that's the exciting thing. 80 00:03:52,600 --> 00:03:54,680 Yeah. And was there much chat around 81 00:03:54,680 --> 00:03:59,280 the the fundies with you like you just after diggers, we're 82 00:03:59,280 --> 00:04:04,160 obviously saying the Pilbara Latin deal prior to that, what 83 00:04:04,160 --> 00:04:08,320 was the talk about getting positions in lithium is everyone 84 00:04:08,320 --> 00:04:10,920 thinking? Stay away. 85 00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:12,440 You can't. I think we've learnt about 86 00:04:12,440 --> 00:04:13,720 lithium. You can't predict when the 87 00:04:13,720 --> 00:04:16,120 pain's gonna stop because it could keep going. 88 00:04:16,160 --> 00:04:17,880 Yeah, Well, good. But are people starting? 89 00:04:18,120 --> 00:04:21,760 Was there a bit of a vibe? They're starting to think, well, 90 00:04:21,800 --> 00:04:24,160 I how much lower can you go? Yeah, I, I think so. 91 00:04:24,200 --> 00:04:28,560 And I think lithium but, but also across other commodities. 92 00:04:28,560 --> 00:04:31,320 I mean, you look at something like Middle's acquisition Corp, 93 00:04:31,320 --> 00:04:34,320 you know, they're obviously pretty, pretty open about the 94 00:04:34,400 --> 00:04:38,160 wanting to, to add assets. You look at, you know, beach 95 00:04:38,160 --> 00:04:42,320 Energy, which which we might touch on, you know, they see and 96 00:04:42,320 --> 00:04:44,520 you know, Brett Woods coming in there, it's all about growing 97 00:04:44,520 --> 00:04:46,840 the asset base and looking, you know, adding, adding assets. 98 00:04:46,840 --> 00:04:49,960 So I think we're entering a phase really across the resource 99 00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:55,000 landscape where acquisitions is is often an easier way to grow 100 00:04:55,000 --> 00:04:57,840 your business rather than you know developing new ore bodies, 101 00:04:58,040 --> 00:05:00,760 so. I think Dave probably on on this 102 00:05:00,760 --> 00:05:04,440 statement sort of touching on a quote that really stood out from 103 00:05:04,440 --> 00:05:08,520 our, our last channel arguably probably resonates very strongly 104 00:05:08,520 --> 00:05:11,240 today is observe and react rather than predict. 105 00:05:11,600 --> 00:05:16,480 I mean, it's been such a rocky ride for resources in the last 106 00:05:16,480 --> 00:05:19,960 year. How, how, what have been sort of 107 00:05:19,960 --> 00:05:22,920 your key observations you're making at a macro level and, and 108 00:05:22,920 --> 00:05:26,720 how you sort of, you know, deliver on that observe and 109 00:05:26,720 --> 00:05:29,240 react rather than predicting a portfolio sense. 110 00:05:29,240 --> 00:05:32,360 Yeah. So, so really what it comes down 111 00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:35,760 to is how do you, how do you deal with with volatile and 112 00:05:35,760 --> 00:05:39,040 uncertain markets, right. So, you know, if, if I'm to put 113 00:05:39,040 --> 00:05:41,200 it into context and really from a macro view, if you look at 114 00:05:41,200 --> 00:05:44,640 what's happened over the last year, you go, well, you know, in 115 00:05:44,640 --> 00:05:47,040 the Western world, interest rates have been increasing. 116 00:05:48,880 --> 00:05:51,280 You know, economies have been slowing question mark whether 117 00:05:51,280 --> 00:05:53,200 it's going to be a hard landing or a soft landing. 118 00:05:53,840 --> 00:05:57,160 You've got China really lacklustre economic performance. 119 00:05:58,120 --> 00:06:01,360 You've got, you know, conflicts in, in numerous places around 120 00:06:01,360 --> 00:06:04,920 the world. And, and most of that is, is at 121 00:06:04,920 --> 00:06:06,800 face value, not very good for resources. 122 00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:09,280 So you know, you've got two approaches. 123 00:06:09,280 --> 00:06:11,640 One is you just go, I'm going to make a call, right? 124 00:06:11,640 --> 00:06:13,560 Things are going to improve. The market's going to go up or 125 00:06:13,560 --> 00:06:15,560 things are going to deteriorate and the market's going to go 126 00:06:15,560 --> 00:06:16,840 down. I'm going to switch into cash 127 00:06:16,840 --> 00:06:18,320 and sit there. And you know, if you think it's 128 00:06:18,320 --> 00:06:19,800 going to go down, you switch into cash. 129 00:06:19,800 --> 00:06:23,720 If you if you think the market's going up, then then then you get 130 00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:26,240 fully invested. The risk with that is, you know, 131 00:06:26,280 --> 00:06:29,640 markets often don't move how you expect that they will move, 132 00:06:29,640 --> 00:06:32,520 right. So the, the way we take it is we 133 00:06:32,520 --> 00:06:37,320 say, well, let's not predict, but let's just prepare for the 134 00:06:37,320 --> 00:06:40,200 eventualities. So given those factors that I've 135 00:06:40,200 --> 00:06:43,440 just said, you know, the way we adjust our portfolio is to say, 136 00:06:43,440 --> 00:06:46,600 well, we probably want to have some flexibility. 137 00:06:46,600 --> 00:06:49,600 So we don't want to be in small caps typically we want to be in 138 00:06:49,600 --> 00:06:51,720 big caps. So in the end of July, for 139 00:06:51,720 --> 00:06:54,520 example, I think we had 70% of the portfolio in companies with 140 00:06:54,520 --> 00:06:59,480 a market cap above a billion, which you know, and, and 70% in 141 00:06:59,480 --> 00:07:01,120 producers rather than developers. 142 00:07:01,800 --> 00:07:04,600 And I think you know, almost 90% of the of the underlying 143 00:07:04,600 --> 00:07:08,520 projects in the portfolio we're in either Australia or North 144 00:07:08,520 --> 00:07:10,800 America, right? So, so you kind of firstly say, 145 00:07:10,800 --> 00:07:15,520 well, let's, let's minimise risk as best we can, but we stay 146 00:07:15,520 --> 00:07:18,040 invested, right. But the benefit of being in 147 00:07:18,040 --> 00:07:22,720 those bigger companies is if the market does correct, either you 148 00:07:22,720 --> 00:07:25,200 get the benefit of being better quality because they fall less 149 00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:28,080 and recover first. But also if you then make the 150 00:07:28,080 --> 00:07:31,200 decision where you convert into cash, you can. 151 00:07:31,320 --> 00:07:35,560 So, so a really good example was, you know, that's where we 152 00:07:35,560 --> 00:07:38,200 were at the end of July, the first week of August, you know, 153 00:07:38,200 --> 00:07:41,040 as you'd recall was, you know, was, was pretty scary on the 154 00:07:41,040 --> 00:07:43,240 Friday night New York market fell. 155 00:07:43,560 --> 00:07:46,720 And the positive was, you know, going into Monday, I'm going, I 156 00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:48,640 know exactly what what we're going to do. 157 00:07:48,640 --> 00:07:50,160 Our portfolio is in reasonable shape. 158 00:07:50,160 --> 00:07:52,960 There's always stuff you never get it percent right, but you 159 00:07:52,960 --> 00:07:54,840 know, our portfolio is in good shape. 160 00:07:54,960 --> 00:07:58,480 You know, I think what I'll do on Monday before the US market 161 00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:01,360 opens on Monday night is we'll sell a bit more, increase our 162 00:08:01,360 --> 00:08:03,840 cash. So it went above 25% because it 163 00:08:03,840 --> 00:08:06,680 looked like it could have been one of those events where you 164 00:08:06,680 --> 00:08:09,640 get a big, a bigger sell off now that didn't eventuate. 165 00:08:10,120 --> 00:08:13,400 So what it means is during that week we could start to to to 166 00:08:13,720 --> 00:08:16,720 invest our cash. We really didn't take any 167 00:08:16,840 --> 00:08:20,960 negative downside from that and and we move forward. 168 00:08:21,000 --> 00:08:22,240 Yeah. I mean you've also got the 169 00:08:22,440 --> 00:08:24,680 ability and the fund to an extent to go short. 170 00:08:24,680 --> 00:08:27,160 Is that something you've tapped into in the in the past year? 171 00:08:27,520 --> 00:08:29,640 We, we haven't. And I know everyone, everyone 172 00:08:30,080 --> 00:08:31,880 you have on here. Since they've done us. 173 00:08:32,799 --> 00:08:38,080 But, but what I would highlight, JD, is how you structure your 174 00:08:38,080 --> 00:08:41,240 fund when you first set it up is also really critical, right? 175 00:08:41,240 --> 00:08:46,280 So things like can you short is important, but can you invest in 176 00:08:46,280 --> 00:08:50,560 big caps as well as small caps? Can you invest internationally? 177 00:08:50,840 --> 00:08:52,600 What percentage of cash can you hold? 178 00:08:52,840 --> 00:08:56,280 You know, can you short, you know, can you buy mining 179 00:08:56,280 --> 00:08:58,640 services companies as well as resource companies because what 180 00:08:58,640 --> 00:09:01,800 you're looking for is areas where you can hide when the 181 00:09:01,800 --> 00:09:05,720 market's under pressure, but also, you know, as broad a range 182 00:09:05,720 --> 00:09:08,040 of stock picking opportunities as as possible. 183 00:09:08,040 --> 00:09:10,320 So that's, that's, that's important. 184 00:09:10,320 --> 00:09:12,440 It's a tough one. It'll be a tough one to surmise, 185 00:09:12,440 --> 00:09:16,920 but like how do you in terms of quick pros and cons for of 186 00:09:17,640 --> 00:09:21,840 majority long preserving cash when you need it and buying low 187 00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:27,040 versus long short like long, long short like you know, stocks 188 00:09:27,040 --> 00:09:30,120 will go go up or down or stay stay the same. 189 00:09:30,120 --> 00:09:33,760 What's the the trade off of preserving the cash compared to 190 00:09:34,440 --> 00:09:37,320 activating a short position? Yeah, look, I mean. 191 00:09:38,840 --> 00:09:39,720 Is it a risk? It's. 192 00:09:39,760 --> 00:09:41,520 A well, it's a combination of things. 193 00:09:41,520 --> 00:09:46,840 Is, is one, you know, I look at the groups that do short and 194 00:09:46,840 --> 00:09:49,280 where you can get some information on them really 195 00:09:49,280 --> 00:09:52,600 across the market. And, and it's, it's difficult 196 00:09:52,880 --> 00:09:56,360 often to see that, you know, over the course of a year, they 197 00:09:56,360 --> 00:09:59,040 actually create value through that process, right. 198 00:09:59,440 --> 00:10:03,640 The resource market is also pretty small and, and, and not a 199 00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:06,880 large, not a number of, not a large number of companies that 200 00:10:06,880 --> 00:10:09,840 are, are really liquid. So, you know, you need liquidity 201 00:10:09,840 --> 00:10:13,360 to, to do it effectively. So the view we've taken to date 202 00:10:13,560 --> 00:10:18,160 is, is we, we haven't done it and we probably won't do it, but 203 00:10:18,160 --> 00:10:20,560 we just like to have that capacity to do it if if things 204 00:10:20,560 --> 00:10:21,760 change. Is there is there much capacity, 205 00:10:22,000 --> 00:10:24,440 capacity for it? But when you know you've got 206 00:10:25,080 --> 00:10:28,240 funds that have been you know long short for a long time and 207 00:10:28,480 --> 00:10:30,880 they're probably in terms of the prime broker relationships. 208 00:10:30,880 --> 00:10:34,280 And then now flock side, the Argonaut Resource Fund says 209 00:10:34,280 --> 00:10:36,520 right, we're going to start amping up our short position. 210 00:10:36,520 --> 00:10:40,040 So you sort of have to get in line to get get into the pool. 211 00:10:41,040 --> 00:10:43,200 Well, I think you're going to have those relationships and, 212 00:10:43,200 --> 00:10:46,760 and it comes down to, you know, the, the size and the, you know, 213 00:10:46,760 --> 00:10:48,960 and the, and the frequency and the quantity that you're doing. 214 00:10:49,000 --> 00:10:52,800 But as I said, you know, we've stayed clear of that to this 215 00:10:52,800 --> 00:10:54,000 point. Interest. 216 00:10:54,000 --> 00:10:56,480 Very interesting, yeah. You, you really tap into the, 217 00:10:56,840 --> 00:11:00,160 the ability to go to cash and that, that margin that you have 218 00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:02,480 there is, is notably bigger than some other funds. 219 00:11:02,480 --> 00:11:05,440 Yeah, I mean you mentioned up to 25% the numbers I looked at the 220 00:11:05,440 --> 00:11:08,640 skimming through this morning, I think was 17% where you're kind 221 00:11:08,640 --> 00:11:09,640 of currently at. Yeah. 222 00:11:09,640 --> 00:11:13,080 The the time you last reported, that's really the the, the safe 223 00:11:13,320 --> 00:11:16,360 haven as I see it for you. Right knows everything about 224 00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:19,880 you, Dave. Don't forget past the big fella. 225 00:11:19,960 --> 00:11:21,680 That's right. That's a lot of top and your 226 00:11:21,680 --> 00:11:22,200 tax. Hold on. 227 00:11:22,200 --> 00:11:25,880 Yeah. So, so we can actually go to 30% 228 00:11:25,880 --> 00:11:32,880 cash and and we tried, you know, the, the risk that you have when 229 00:11:32,880 --> 00:11:36,400 you have the ability to go to 30% cash is you go too cautious 230 00:11:36,400 --> 00:11:38,800 and you sit on high level of cash for a long period of time, 231 00:11:38,800 --> 00:11:39,800 right? So you got to keep telling 232 00:11:39,800 --> 00:11:42,840 yourself, I mean, this business to invest, I got to invest which 233 00:11:42,840 --> 00:11:44,880 we try and do. So we use of, you know, the 234 00:11:44,880 --> 00:11:48,520 higher levels say above, you know, particularly above 20%, 235 00:11:48,520 --> 00:11:51,760 but even really above 15% is when you got concerns about the 236 00:11:51,760 --> 00:11:55,040 market and we typically won't hold large amounts of cash for a 237 00:11:55,040 --> 00:11:57,560 long period of time. It's really just when you think 238 00:11:57,560 --> 00:12:04,560 there's an uncertain event or the market's, you know, there's 239 00:12:04,560 --> 00:12:06,160 issues there and then then we'll hold off. 240 00:12:06,160 --> 00:12:09,000 But you know, we think it's the important part and it kind of 241 00:12:09,000 --> 00:12:11,160 goes to not, you know, to the shorting. 242 00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:13,840 We'd prefer to hold cash rather than short at this point. 243 00:12:14,880 --> 00:12:18,920 Dave, so the, the way you, you, you think about your portfolio 244 00:12:18,920 --> 00:12:22,960 is sort of structuring into it the two themes of one being 245 00:12:22,960 --> 00:12:25,920 energy transition and the other geopolitical risk. 246 00:12:26,080 --> 00:12:29,400 You sort of talked to a bit of sort of what's changed from from 247 00:12:29,400 --> 00:12:33,640 last year to this year. I mean, arguably, I think 248 00:12:33,640 --> 00:12:35,800 probably the the interesting ones to us there. 249 00:12:35,960 --> 00:12:38,600 You could probably add to geopolitical risk is, is 250 00:12:38,600 --> 00:12:42,360 permitting risk in Australia, just Australia, a lot of what's 251 00:12:42,360 --> 00:12:47,800 happened in very recent history and yeah, addressing base load 252 00:12:48,080 --> 00:12:51,360 power and what the the future energy makes could look like 253 00:12:51,360 --> 00:12:53,920 globally and and perhaps in Australia's been quite a 254 00:12:53,920 --> 00:12:56,320 political and controversial topic as well. 255 00:12:56,560 --> 00:13:00,480 Yeah. How, how have you found that's 256 00:13:01,680 --> 00:13:05,600 impacted the portfolio broadly? Like with those themes, is it 257 00:13:05,720 --> 00:13:09,200 sort of swung to 1 theme more than another? 258 00:13:09,360 --> 00:13:11,920 Yeah, last year. What, what I've found 259 00:13:11,920 --> 00:13:15,640 interesting, like we kicked off the fund in January 2020 and at 260 00:13:15,640 --> 00:13:18,400 that time we kind of, sort of outlined here the, the key 261 00:13:19,040 --> 00:13:21,960 resilient themes, you know, energy transition, geopolitical 262 00:13:21,960 --> 00:13:25,480 risk and you know, and still doing our, our monthly, you 263 00:13:25,480 --> 00:13:28,200 know, presentations, the, the, the themes are the same. 264 00:13:28,200 --> 00:13:31,440 So you know, if you take energy transition, I think the big 265 00:13:31,440 --> 00:13:36,880 change has been really up until probably a year ago people 266 00:13:36,880 --> 00:13:40,040 talked about energy transition, but they're really talking about 267 00:13:40,160 --> 00:13:44,640 electric vehicles and the EV market and you know, and the and 268 00:13:44,640 --> 00:13:48,280 the roll out of that globally. Yeah, that's right. 269 00:13:48,280 --> 00:13:50,720 It was just cars. Yeah, solar panels and wind 270 00:13:50,720 --> 00:13:52,120 turbines wasn't. It yeah, exactly. 271 00:13:52,160 --> 00:13:55,800 And and renewable power, whereas I think now it's going you know, 272 00:13:56,160 --> 00:14:01,320 transport is, you know, is 15% of global greenhouse gas to the 273 00:14:01,320 --> 00:14:05,040 emissions. And whereas power and industry 274 00:14:05,040 --> 00:14:08,600 and it's really the, the, the fossil fuels used used in, in 275 00:14:09,080 --> 00:14:12,760 empowering, you know, industry is, you know, probably 55 to 276 00:14:12,760 --> 00:14:15,400 60%. And I I suppose though they were 277 00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:19,080 thinking but originally that this, the renewables were going 278 00:14:19,080 --> 00:14:21,280 to be the base like power. Well, that's right. 279 00:14:21,280 --> 00:14:22,200 That's exactly. What? 280 00:14:22,200 --> 00:14:24,360 The Australian, exactly? So that's what, Yeah. 281 00:14:24,400 --> 00:14:26,520 He wasn't even getting a talk about Yeah. 282 00:14:26,560 --> 00:14:29,320 So, you know, so I think where we where we're at now is there's 283 00:14:29,320 --> 00:14:32,680 a much which I think is healthy is there's a much greater 284 00:14:32,680 --> 00:14:35,400 understanding that we need to address the base load issue, 285 00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:37,320 right. And and renewables is part of 286 00:14:37,320 --> 00:14:39,160 that. Really I think where that's 287 00:14:39,160 --> 00:14:42,200 fallen down from a base load perspective is, is battery 288 00:14:42,200 --> 00:14:45,560 storage, which really hasn't technology hasn't sort of driven 289 00:14:45,560 --> 00:14:47,520 that forward. But then you're right, then it's 290 00:14:47,960 --> 00:14:53,040 then it's things like nuclear power, but but also I think gas 291 00:14:53,040 --> 00:14:56,120 has come back as a transitionary fuel and people understanding 292 00:14:56,360 --> 00:14:59,200 that's going to be necessary either to replace coal, you 293 00:14:59,200 --> 00:15:01,960 know, thurible coal or to support renewables. 294 00:15:02,920 --> 00:15:05,840 So I think it's, you know, I think it's, it's, it's, it's, 295 00:15:06,040 --> 00:15:09,680 it's positive there. What what have you sort of 296 00:15:09,680 --> 00:15:12,960 noticed just, you know, swerving back to the, the geopolitical 297 00:15:12,960 --> 00:15:15,760 kind of front And you know, gold is the key part and I find it 298 00:15:15,760 --> 00:15:18,440 fascinating. You got oil and gas as well in 299 00:15:18,440 --> 00:15:21,040 there. I mean, it's a bit sort of 300 00:15:21,040 --> 00:15:23,440 grandiose to talk about everything going on in the 301 00:15:23,440 --> 00:15:26,920 Middle East, but how do you kind of play that when you're talking 302 00:15:26,920 --> 00:15:29,560 about oil and gas and you're picking names like Karoon and 303 00:15:29,560 --> 00:15:31,760 your top five? Are you thinking about any of 304 00:15:31,760 --> 00:15:34,800 that stuff or you just purely focused on the bottom up 305 00:15:34,800 --> 00:15:37,000 fundamentals of the names that you're holding? 306 00:15:37,040 --> 00:15:39,360 Yeah, it's a combination. You know, the way I often 307 00:15:39,360 --> 00:15:41,680 describe what we do, it's top down meets bottom up. 308 00:15:41,680 --> 00:15:44,320 So you know, what's what's happening at the commodity level 309 00:15:44,320 --> 00:15:46,640 and what's happening at the at the micro company level. 310 00:15:46,960 --> 00:15:48,880 Something like Karoon's a good example of that, where we're 311 00:15:48,880 --> 00:15:50,440 going. If you look at what's happened 312 00:15:50,440 --> 00:15:53,160 in, you know, Russia, Ukraine, you look at you look at what's 313 00:15:53,160 --> 00:15:57,720 happening in the Middle East. You know, we we particularly 314 00:15:57,720 --> 00:16:00,920 like oil. You know, we think prices will 315 00:16:01,160 --> 00:16:05,160 be supported there. Corun has obviously had a few 316 00:16:05,160 --> 00:16:07,240 disappointments in the market. We think it's coming through 317 00:16:07,240 --> 00:16:10,640 that on a free cash flow generation perspective it looks 318 00:16:10,640 --> 00:16:15,240 really good. So there's kind of commodity is, 319 00:16:15,280 --> 00:16:19,320 is where we want to be. And you know, and from a value 320 00:16:19,320 --> 00:16:21,280 perspective it also sort of stacks up. 321 00:16:21,600 --> 00:16:28,320 Do you think it's now more so difficult to be high conviction 322 00:16:28,320 --> 00:16:29,720 in this market? That's something sort of we 323 00:16:29,720 --> 00:16:32,080 spoke at at length in our last chat. 324 00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:36,240 And I noticed in your monthly report from about a year ago, 325 00:16:36,280 --> 00:16:39,760 yet your top five comprised almost, you know, just over 50%, 326 00:16:39,800 --> 00:16:43,920 yeah, of your portfolio. Now it's down to about a third, 327 00:16:43,960 --> 00:16:48,160 yeah, which is arguably a lot more than most, yeah, fund 328 00:16:48,160 --> 00:16:52,040 managers still anyway. But how do you manage that or 329 00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:54,320 you still take the view on, you know, you otherwise you 330 00:16:54,320 --> 00:16:56,000 compromise on quality. That was another. 331 00:16:56,200 --> 00:16:58,200 Yeah. Well, I think that's right in 332 00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:00,640 that again, it comes back to the resource sector is actually 333 00:17:00,640 --> 00:17:02,400 relatively small. And so when you find a good 334 00:17:02,400 --> 00:17:03,760 idea, you want to be able to back it. 335 00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:10,079 So that's right. Our top five, I think a 3334% of 336 00:17:10,079 --> 00:17:14,240 the portfolio and our top ten are about just under 60 percent, 337 00:17:14,240 --> 00:17:17,440 55 or 60%. So what what we're seeing in the 338 00:17:17,440 --> 00:17:20,560 market now and I think Maddie, we're talking about this earlier 339 00:17:20,560 --> 00:17:23,720 that it's just kind of hard to find those really compelling 340 00:17:23,720 --> 00:17:26,480 opportunities. So we tend to have a bigger 341 00:17:26,480 --> 00:17:28,640 number of more moderate holdings. 342 00:17:29,040 --> 00:17:32,040 But as you're saying, relative to what other funds might do 343 00:17:32,160 --> 00:17:35,000 our, our relative, you know, modest holdings are still, you 344 00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:38,320 know, 4 to 6%, right, so. Compelling. 345 00:17:38,840 --> 00:17:39,880 No. Have you Do you? 346 00:17:39,920 --> 00:17:42,360 I'll, I'll use an example. Genesis. 347 00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:44,360 Do you have Genesis? We don't at the moment we've 348 00:17:44,440 --> 00:17:48,040 we've we've held it in the past. So it's a mate the way that we 349 00:17:48,040 --> 00:17:52,680 sort of manage the portfolio is we say we we have a universe of 350 00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:55,560 investable companies that we like and we want to own right. 351 00:17:55,800 --> 00:17:59,640 And then it's really get really, does the macro situation favour 352 00:17:59,640 --> 00:18:01,560 that and does it look good enough value? 353 00:18:01,560 --> 00:18:03,360 So Genesis, we love what they're doing. 354 00:18:03,360 --> 00:18:06,960 I mean, obviously Rally has done a great job in pulling the 355 00:18:06,960 --> 00:18:09,800 Genesis business together and now it's really in the execution 356 00:18:09,800 --> 00:18:12,360 mode. But we think in the gold space, 357 00:18:12,360 --> 00:18:13,800 perhaps there's better value at the moment. 358 00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:16,360 Yeah, and so I'll just the reason I brought that up as an 359 00:18:16,440 --> 00:18:19,360 as an example and probably in the year since we spoke to you 360 00:18:19,360 --> 00:18:21,800 last like one more. I think I used to when I was 361 00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:24,480 talking about Ulysses, Yeah, thinking like right. 362 00:18:24,680 --> 00:18:26,800 I think it was a 5 gramme resource. 363 00:18:26,800 --> 00:18:29,640 I forget what they deserve rate is, but I'm like, you know, like 364 00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:32,560 4 so mine and four gramme dirt and it's flat. 365 00:18:32,560 --> 00:18:35,880 And once you get the recovery, it's like hard work and all 366 00:18:35,880 --> 00:18:39,000 this, but the gold price is going up so much. 367 00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:42,000 And like you look at what's what's out there, it's like far 368 00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:44,600 out. If you're pulling out three to 369 00:18:44,600 --> 00:18:47,400 four gramme dirt from a underground, even if it's a bit 370 00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:50,200 difficult, it's like, well, that's actually good these days. 371 00:18:50,320 --> 00:18:52,280 Yeah. So like what what we considered 372 00:18:52,280 --> 00:18:54,760 was like compelling opportunities and like just 373 00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:58,280 based on looking at yeah, grades, like tonnes and grade. 374 00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:00,640 Yeah, it it's just changed so much in a year. 375 00:19:01,120 --> 00:19:04,600 Well, like a blood Yeah right. 1.2 gramme open pit. 376 00:19:04,600 --> 00:19:06,960 That's like fucking Jake, give it to us any day. 377 00:19:07,120 --> 00:19:09,560 Yeah, would have even pissed on it 10 years ago. 378 00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:11,480 Yeah. Well, I mean, it'd be 379 00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:14,640 interesting to look back 12 months ago and what the, you 380 00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:17,960 know, what the expectations were about all in sustaining costs, 381 00:19:18,000 --> 00:19:19,640 which is the other side of what you're talking about. 382 00:19:20,080 --> 00:19:23,760 You know, it was probably 15-16 hundred maybe, maybe a slightly 383 00:19:23,760 --> 00:19:26,560 higher, but probably not a lot. Whereas now you know, 2000 is 384 00:19:26,560 --> 00:19:29,400 kind of, you know, not unusual and and some are, some are more 385 00:19:29,400 --> 00:19:31,880 than that, so. If you're if you're too 2000 and 386 00:19:31,880 --> 00:19:34,280 unhedged, yeah, like you think. You're a genius. 387 00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:35,760 Yeah, exactly. You think you should be still 388 00:19:35,760 --> 00:19:40,040 making maybe 800 to 1000 bucks on top all in like you're 389 00:19:40,040 --> 00:19:41,920 frigging laughing. Exactly, Yeah. 390 00:19:42,760 --> 00:19:44,080 Exactly, I'm a Ding Ding Ding on. 391 00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:47,600 Genesis oh Ding Ding Dings just ripped the Ding Ding Dings. 392 00:19:47,600 --> 00:19:48,880 Oh, you're a Ding? Ding Ding on. 393 00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:51,560 I am a Ding Ding Ding on the fund as well. 394 00:19:51,600 --> 00:19:53,120 Good. That's some responsible 395 00:19:53,120 --> 00:19:57,000 investing JC, you're not not punting there like well done 396 00:19:57,000 --> 00:19:57,760 mate. Thanks. 397 00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:00,840 A Ding Ding Ding on on Karoon on my part. 398 00:20:01,200 --> 00:20:04,120 Two, while while we're on gold, I think we should just dive, 399 00:20:04,120 --> 00:20:07,800 dive a bit deeper and round out how you, you kind of play it. 400 00:20:07,800 --> 00:20:10,440 So obviously we're talking about a producer there. 401 00:20:10,920 --> 00:20:12,760 How do you talk about getting, getting leverage? 402 00:20:12,760 --> 00:20:15,800 Obviously everyone's raging about the, the gold price in 403 00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:19,000 Aussie dollar terms over 3700 and all that. 404 00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:21,600 And then people start to quickly look, look down the curve, you 405 00:20:21,600 --> 00:20:23,960 know, what's what's in the developer space, what's in the 406 00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:27,200 explorer space and see where they can really find value 407 00:20:27,200 --> 00:20:28,400 still. What are you seeing out there? 408 00:20:29,040 --> 00:20:31,120 Yeah. Look, so to put it in context, 409 00:20:31,120 --> 00:20:35,080 in our fund, we typically have between 10 and 15% exposure to 410 00:20:35,080 --> 00:20:38,320 gold and it's probably just tipping up to, you know, it's, 411 00:20:38,320 --> 00:20:40,560 it's about 12 or 13% at the moment. 412 00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:44,600 Is that 10 or 15% of what's invested or the total? 413 00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:46,040 Of the total. Including the cash. 414 00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:47,600 Yeah. Total portfolio including the 415 00:20:47,600 --> 00:20:50,440 cash, Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Which is probably one of the 416 00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:53,160 bigger, bigger exposures we've got to individual commodities 417 00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:55,000 as, as you'd expect given the way it's gone. 418 00:20:55,840 --> 00:21:01,720 But our exposure is, you know, West Gold, Northern Star and and 419 00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:04,840 the Grey we've owned until until recently and, and we'll probably 420 00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:07,720 roll into, you know, another producer. 421 00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:12,000 So we haven't really gone down. I mean, we've looked at we, you 422 00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:14,120 know, we've been an investor in Spartan during the year for a, 423 00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:17,000 for a period of time. You know, I think some of the 424 00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:20,200 emerging projects like Catalyst and Oribanda have have done 425 00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:22,520 really well. But we've, you know, at the 426 00:21:22,520 --> 00:21:24,960 moment we're sitting in the in the bigger producers. 427 00:21:26,320 --> 00:21:28,040 How do you how do you look at Capricorn? 428 00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:31,960 Like the the yeah, it's one of the like you look at how like 429 00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:35,000 it's performance recently, it's always been traded at a high. 430 00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:38,520 Yeah, a high multiple yeah. But it you know, it keeps on 431 00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:40,080 going up. So it's like as a yeah. 432 00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:43,600 And, you know, and the, you know, potential plans to expand. 433 00:21:43,720 --> 00:21:45,400 Yeah. Carla Windell, everyone says, 434 00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:48,880 oh, look, it's gonna get deeper and might get deeper and higher 435 00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:50,480 strip and get a bit more difficult. 436 00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:54,240 Well, you can just expand the plant and maybe lower the cost 437 00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:56,520 and offset that then with me and Gibson coming on. 438 00:21:56,520 --> 00:21:59,080 But it's just one of the ones that it really never gets talked 439 00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:01,400 about because everyone trades on such a high multiple. 440 00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:05,920 But yeah, it's like possibly one of the safer bets. 441 00:22:05,920 --> 00:22:06,680 Well, I. Agree. 442 00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:09,640 Yeah, I agree. Capricorn is, is the gold 443 00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:12,720 company I want to own, but I don't own it right now. 444 00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:15,320 And the reason for that I don't own it is I do have some 445 00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:18,880 concerns about the, the, the permitting of of Mount Gibson 446 00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:21,760 and how quickly that'll come through and potentially delay. 447 00:22:22,120 --> 00:22:24,600 But you know, if you look at it and maybe comparing it a bit 448 00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:28,320 with with Genesis as you go, well, you know, today it's 449 00:22:28,320 --> 00:22:31,360 producing 150,100 and 15,000 ounces. 450 00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:36,000 You crank up Carla Winder a bit that maybe gets it close to 150 451 00:22:36,360 --> 00:22:40,000 and you bring on Mount Gibson, you know, then you're 300,000 oz 452 00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:44,040 or or slightly more stay within a three, three year time frame, 453 00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:46,880 something like that. But the point of difference is 454 00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:49,240 going to be their costs are going to be low and their free 455 00:22:49,240 --> 00:22:51,680 cash generation is going to be really significant. 456 00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:55,880 And I think that, you know, that combination is really 457 00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:58,120 compelling. You know, I think when you look 458 00:22:58,120 --> 00:23:00,360 at it on multiples at the moment, you know that the 459 00:23:00,360 --> 00:23:03,240 markets factoring in a value from Mount Gibson that doesn't 460 00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:05,280 flow through in in earnings, right. 461 00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:06,440 So you got to be careful on that. 462 00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:09,440 But yeah, so I so I like it and I'm just looking for an 463 00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:12,360 opportunity to buy it and obviously management team is as 464 00:23:12,360 --> 00:23:13,720 good as going around. Yeah. 465 00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:16,120 How do you think about paying up for management? 466 00:23:16,120 --> 00:23:18,200 So they're they're obviously the the name and you've also 467 00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:21,320 mentioned Raleigh develops one of your biggest holdings as 468 00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:23,200 well. Yeah, I mean the Capricorn is at 469 00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:26,240 6 bucks last time I looked. So you, you are you are really 470 00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:28,480 paying up for it. Can you talk a bit to that? 471 00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:33,800 Well, you know, I think, I think the benefit of backing people 472 00:23:33,800 --> 00:23:37,560 that have a strong track record of delivery is twofold. 473 00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:40,040 One is they track good people into the business. 474 00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:42,040 I think we've seen that with development, but also with 475 00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:47,120 Capricorn and and Genesis. But you also know that if, if, 476 00:23:47,280 --> 00:23:50,920 if something unusual happens, they're, they have an ability to 477 00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:54,280 raise capital, right? So, so in the resource space, 478 00:23:54,560 --> 00:23:57,160 you know, your risk is you're developing an asset, you're not 479 00:23:57,160 --> 00:24:00,440 generating an income stream and, and something goes wrong and 480 00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:03,200 you, you're struggling, whereas you know that the market is 481 00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:04,560 always going to support those guys. 482 00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:06,440 So, you know, I think that's a benefit. 483 00:24:06,440 --> 00:24:09,880 So I think, you know, Genesis is a good example when, you know, 484 00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:14,800 when Rally stepped in and implemented his plan, you know, 485 00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:17,200 the market immediately applied a premium there. 486 00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:19,480 Capricorn's the same, develops the same. 487 00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:22,080 So I think there is value there. You gotta be careful because 488 00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:25,120 that premium can be eroded if if things change. 489 00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:29,880 But but backing good people, I think is is is a good strategy. 490 00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:33,880 We we have the same effect when we have Alley on an episode lot. 491 00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:35,920 We get a. Few premium. 492 00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:40,080 We've just gotta have a mug on there and it just JC. 493 00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:42,680 Premium. Yeah, sorry, sorry to interrupt 494 00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:44,960 you. Probably the other guy that I've 495 00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:47,920 mentioned in that group is, is Chris Ellison from Minrez, 496 00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:49,560 right. And obviously Minrez is, is 497 00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:51,040 under pressure. And you know, it's one of those 498 00:24:51,040 --> 00:24:53,680 companies which is in our investable universe. 499 00:24:54,600 --> 00:24:57,920 There's been times where you know where where we've owned it 500 00:24:57,920 --> 00:25:01,240 and but then it got a bit expensive, but now you can kind 501 00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:02,840 of see this. It's already boxed by. 502 00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:05,120 There's an emerging opportunity whether it's quite now I'm not 503 00:25:05,120 --> 00:25:08,720 sure, but you know from a from a medium term perspective, it's 504 00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:11,920 the stock that you want to own because you know you'd back him 505 00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:14,800 on what he's done. Old Ding Ding myself on means 506 00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:16,360 and develop. Their Gee, you are and 507 00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:19,840 everything Jason, I just. Spread myself too quickly that's 508 00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:21,600 the problem. But I guess the thing 509 00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:25,120 interesting thing with with Chris, yeah he is very much in 510 00:25:25,120 --> 00:25:28,480 that sort of universe as well about you know ability to you 511 00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:33,520 know execute and get things done raise capital that but how much 512 00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:35,440 lower can means go? Well. 513 00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:38,120 Yeah, exactly where does it? Where does it sort of. 514 00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:39,840 Yeah, stop. Yeah. 515 00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:44,560 Well, you know you look at the business mix, you've got lithium 516 00:25:44,840 --> 00:25:50,040 again he's got he's got some good assets there, but it's 517 00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:54,320 bodge mean price at $800 a tonne US means no ones really making 518 00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:56,920 any money right. So, so the markets not applying 519 00:25:56,920 --> 00:26:00,240 a whole lot of value to that asset notwithstanding, you know, 520 00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:03,160 I'm of the view that it can't really be sustained at these 521 00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:05,720 levels and that prices will move higher over the next year or 522 00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:08,400 two. So, you know, so the market's 523 00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:10,440 discounted for that. On the iron ore side, you've had 524 00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:13,800 iron ore prices come back from, you know, 12130 back to just 525 00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:16,440 under 100. So again, that's not helping him 526 00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:19,120 as he's bringing on, you know, his new iron ore project. 527 00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:23,400 So you can see that at the, it's really the commodity level that 528 00:26:23,400 --> 00:26:26,760 he's being impacted. But you know, looking forward 529 00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:28,880 you'd go spot domain prices are probably near their low. 530 00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:31,600 Iron oil prices I don't think have a lot of downside beyond 531 00:26:31,600 --> 00:26:34,480 $90.00 a tonne. So there's an emerging 532 00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:36,360 opportunity there. Actually, while we sort of 533 00:26:36,360 --> 00:26:40,320 touched on developers, well, we noticed that that's obvious sort 534 00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:42,440 of top five holdings. That's the one that sort of 535 00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:45,120 remained pretty consistent between, you know, last year and 536 00:26:45,120 --> 00:26:47,960 this year. But Develop is has, you know, 537 00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:50,960 come off, you know, 25% in that year too. 538 00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:55,360 So why do you feel that this is important to, you know, stay 539 00:26:55,360 --> 00:26:57,160 high conviction in someone like Develop? 540 00:26:57,200 --> 00:26:59,320 Yeah. Well, so, so between then and 541 00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:01,440 now, we've kind of been in and out a few times. 542 00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:04,760 Yeah, because you're right, it's one of those stocks where 543 00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:09,520 probably more than other ones we own, there was a backfilling of 544 00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:12,760 actual earnings and you know and and operations. 545 00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:14,120 It was really for the early stage. 546 00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:18,240 So when it ran up particularly strongly, we took some profits 547 00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:21,840 and then we sort of re entered. I think obviously what's good 548 00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:23,720 about it now. I think if you look at what 549 00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:26,400 they've achieved over the last year, I think they've made a lot 550 00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:28,360 of progress on their mining service business. 551 00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:31,080 And really the outlook for that's only improving with, for 552 00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:36,240 example, you know, Bellevue and what's happening there and you 553 00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:44,280 know, and, and other operations. And I think that you know, on, 554 00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:49,920 on Woodlawn that's, that's also looking as a, as a pretty good 555 00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:51,800 operation. Then obviously traffic, you're 556 00:27:51,800 --> 00:27:54,280 also signing up for some offtakes. 557 00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:56,760 Yeah, it didn't get really much activity after that. 558 00:27:56,760 --> 00:28:00,440 That was probably a pretty K announcement with that that 559 00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:04,760 financing deal. But what do you what do you 560 00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:06,920 think the investors are waiting for? 561 00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:08,840 Like what do you think is going to be the cut? 562 00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:11,520 It's a yeah. Is it the FID is going to be 563 00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:14,360 sort of the? Well, I mean, I think so, I 564 00:28:14,360 --> 00:28:17,240 think people are now saying it's there, it's ready to go. 565 00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:21,000 There's no really hindrance. It's just, you know, like to see 566 00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:24,440 copper prices a bit higher and and then press the button so. 567 00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:28,400 It's set it like fucking set up beautifully in terms of all 568 00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:32,080 developed ahead and at or and I think I think I think they said 569 00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:35,680 they got about two years worth of production already already 570 00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:39,320 developed. So in terms of so they. 571 00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:44,040 Obviously. Got a, you know, up do up the 572 00:28:44,040 --> 00:28:45,480 mill and everything to get it down. 573 00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:49,280 But like in terms of a a mining side, yeah like should we just 574 00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:52,200 freaking flown out once they once they do pull the trigger? 575 00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:54,400 Well, that's just a risk that so much. 576 00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:55,920 Yeah, Yeah. I think you're right, you know, 577 00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:58,400 and and getting back to the question, why isn't the market 578 00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:00,640 reacting? I think the market is very, it's 579 00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:03,720 very earnings focused and it's very fundamental focused and 580 00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:07,640 develops kind of stillwell, we've got a base business here, 581 00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:09,120 but it's what we're going to do in the future. 582 00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:12,040 So notwithstanding the funding is is locked away now. 583 00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:17,160 So I think it will come as as market sentiment improves. 584 00:29:17,560 --> 00:29:20,080 Yeah, yeah, I think it's it's it's shaping up similar. 585 00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:22,680 Oh, not really, because I suppose that in the Northern 586 00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:25,280 Star journey, like Paulson's tipped along for ages and then 587 00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:28,920 it was like, you know, Barrack assets, Newmont assets, bloody 588 00:29:28,920 --> 00:29:30,920 bang, bang, bang. And that then it was flying. 589 00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:33,880 So it's sort of, you know, Woodlawn sitting there. 590 00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:37,280 Oh no, it's not getting mined yet, but it's like when there 591 00:29:37,280 --> 00:29:42,880 may be a a flurry of activity inorganically that might come 592 00:29:43,040 --> 00:29:45,920 yeah, for them and then it'll just start rolling. 593 00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:49,360 I think he's proved probably except for Pioneer dime like 594 00:29:49,360 --> 00:29:53,080 proved like a lot of discipline in the the Northern Star days 595 00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:56,400 and when when he yeah, picked up a lot of things fucking pretty 596 00:29:56,400 --> 00:29:58,280 cheap. And look at they're still mining 597 00:29:58,280 --> 00:30:00,080 those assets today. Yeah, exactly. 598 00:30:00,160 --> 00:30:03,720 Yeah, Pioneer Dime I think was a a good, good idea at the time, 599 00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:06,280 but. It might be a good idea in the 600 00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:08,440 future too, it's just not a good idea at the. 601 00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:10,960 At the moment. At the moment, but like, it's 602 00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:14,080 only going to take a frigging yeah, we're not even, as I said 603 00:30:14,080 --> 00:30:17,160 at the start of the year when lithium like absolutely started 604 00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:18,800 to shit itself. Everyone's like, look, this 605 00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:21,640 could be a six to 18 months sort of downturn. 606 00:30:23,200 --> 00:30:25,320 We're what, not 8, not 8 months in. 607 00:30:26,000 --> 00:30:27,600 So what? We're still early in what could 608 00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:29,600 potentially be a soft period for it. 609 00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:32,520 So that one buddy knows where anything's. 610 00:30:32,560 --> 00:30:34,280 Now we're all guessing, absolutely. 611 00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:35,680 Some people guess better than others. 612 00:30:36,280 --> 00:30:39,920 Where do you think copper has to kind of hold above for them to 613 00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:44,120 make the call on Woodlawn? I think it's probably, you know, 614 00:30:44,160 --> 00:30:48,640 somewhere between $4.00 and 4:50, you know, a pound, 615 00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:52,160 probably 425, yeah, that kind of level. 616 00:30:52,160 --> 00:30:54,560 Because and and that'll be pretty that's pretty heavily 617 00:30:54,800 --> 00:30:57,560 contingent, I'd say because he wants to guarantee the price is 618 00:30:57,560 --> 00:31:01,680 bloody high because I'm as soon as they start F. 619 00:31:01,760 --> 00:31:05,160 Is it FRD or producing? I think the next payment to the. 620 00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:06,000 Yeah, that's right. Yeah. 621 00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:09,880 Not, not the the administrators, yeah. 622 00:31:09,920 --> 00:31:12,280 Gets activated, Yeah. So I think they obviously want 623 00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:15,520 the price to be bloody high so they don't get really hamstrung 624 00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:17,320 by that. Yeah, it's 30 million or 625 00:31:17,320 --> 00:31:18,680 something. Yeah, well, that's right. 626 00:31:18,680 --> 00:31:22,640 I mean, I think that's top man. I think what you want to see is 627 00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:25,680 some certainty about the sustainability of, of copper 628 00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:27,560 prices. So rather than just to tick up 629 00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:31,280 and and that probably relates to what's happening in China and 630 00:31:31,280 --> 00:31:32,920 what's happening with the global economy. 631 00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:35,640 But, you know, with interest rates near their near their peak 632 00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:38,680 and likely to come down, particularly in the US, you 633 00:31:38,680 --> 00:31:41,800 know, you can see better times, you know, moving into next year. 634 00:31:42,560 --> 00:31:44,920 On, on the copper front, I mean, there's been heaps and news 635 00:31:44,920 --> 00:31:48,440 since we spoke, you know, big, big end of town BHB, they 636 00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:52,040 obviously went after Anglo then they actually signed up a deal 637 00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:53,800 with, with Philo as well. Yeah. 638 00:31:54,120 --> 00:31:56,440 And I think we spoke about Mac at the time, Sandfire, these 639 00:31:56,440 --> 00:32:00,000 sorts of names, Firefly, where else you kinda looking around 640 00:32:00,000 --> 00:32:03,800 and you spoke about your ability to, to look overseas before as 641 00:32:03,800 --> 00:32:05,320 well. Is that something you're you're 642 00:32:05,320 --> 00:32:09,840 tapping into for copper? Look, we, we've looked and this, 643 00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:12,480 you know, we owned tech for a little while, which was partly, 644 00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:19,120 you know, on the, on the shift to being a more pure copper 645 00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:22,400 group. So we, you know, we've owned 646 00:32:22,600 --> 00:32:29,040 capstone, but you know, often there's no easy way to play 647 00:32:29,040 --> 00:32:32,240 copper globally because you've either got a big, typically 648 00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:35,240 you've got a big exposure to South America or you've got an 649 00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:37,880 exposure to somewhere like, you know, the DRC. 650 00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:43,240 So, you know, we kept coming back to, you know, Mac and sand 651 00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:48,640 fire and you know, you know, we can't own BHP and, and typically 652 00:32:48,640 --> 00:32:50,800 we don't buy BHP for copper exposure. 653 00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:55,200 It's really for, for, I know as you'd expect 70% of earnings, 654 00:32:55,200 --> 00:32:59,240 but does give you give you give the ability to get some 655 00:32:59,280 --> 00:33:01,600 explosion. Do you find it strange that like 656 00:33:01,600 --> 00:33:05,840 a developer like Fireflies actually outperforming producers 657 00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:08,840 or is it does that more of a comment on the the the asset 658 00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:11,040 quality? Or it's more an exploration. 659 00:33:11,320 --> 00:33:13,920 Yeah, it's a, it's an exploration project really. 660 00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:15,920 Yeah. And that, that's quite unusual 661 00:33:15,920 --> 00:33:18,440 because we've seen sort of quite the opposite in gold, right? 662 00:33:18,440 --> 00:33:22,400 Yeah. I mean, you're right, the only 663 00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:25,120 benefit is, you know, if, if you're in a commodity where 664 00:33:25,120 --> 00:33:28,880 you've got a positive long term view, but the short term view 665 00:33:28,880 --> 00:33:32,720 is, is, is struggling, you know what that means? 666 00:33:32,720 --> 00:33:35,440 If you're a producer, you might not be making money And so, so 667 00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:37,240 people don't want to be there. But if you've got a quality 668 00:33:37,240 --> 00:33:40,920 asset that's going to be ideally producing it in a couple of 669 00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:43,920 years in the in the future, then that can be a better way of play 670 00:33:43,920 --> 00:33:45,760 it because there's, you know, there's not everyone's not 671 00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:48,600 looking at the earnings and how that's falling in the short 672 00:33:48,600 --> 00:33:50,520 term. Maddie, I think it's, I think 673 00:33:50,520 --> 00:33:52,800 it's time to talk uranium. It's you time. 674 00:33:54,360 --> 00:33:57,000 What a bloody Friday. Friday's a big day. 675 00:33:58,320 --> 00:34:00,440 Everyone's a lot. That's just the fucking magic. 676 00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:03,800 The calendars are on people's fridge that have just got 'cause 677 00:34:03,800 --> 00:34:06,000 Adam prom announcement. Cause Adam prom announcement. 678 00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:10,400 So it's gonna be an interesting one that yeah, you've done it. 679 00:34:10,440 --> 00:34:13,040 How much were you in uranium? Much, Dave. 680 00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:16,199 Yeah. So we we've probably got around 681 00:34:16,199 --> 00:34:18,880 10% of the portfolio in uranium we have. 682 00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:21,880 Last time we talked, how much were you much in at? 683 00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:26,239 That we, well, we don't we'd own next Gen really for for years. 684 00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:29,480 So I think it last year that was probably the only one we owned. 685 00:34:30,159 --> 00:34:34,719 We've kind of rolled through that now and we own Denison and 686 00:34:34,719 --> 00:34:40,239 Fission and actually we've just bought yellow cake, which is 687 00:34:40,239 --> 00:34:43,440 which is more of the physical because the the discount to NTA 688 00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:44,840 has actually opened up quite a lot. 689 00:34:45,159 --> 00:34:47,239 Yeah, what's that one? Oh, I know because spots going 690 00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:50,800 from like, you know, frigging 9 to 15% around that range. 691 00:34:50,800 --> 00:34:53,560 And like that's what yellow cake was always 15%. 692 00:34:53,840 --> 00:34:55,880 More. Yeah, it's about 2025, so yeah. 693 00:34:56,239 --> 00:35:01,280 So, yeah, exactly. So one, so, so we're there and 694 00:35:01,480 --> 00:35:05,040 you know, I think medium term, you know, we're, we're positive 695 00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:06,880 on it. We think prices will go up and, 696 00:35:07,360 --> 00:35:10,040 and, and there'll be some opportunity and, and there's a 697 00:35:10,040 --> 00:35:15,040 relatively small number of of decent sized uranium stocks. 698 00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:20,520 So, so, so we think we need exposure there. 699 00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:24,600 What can we kind of read into you, you know with next Gen your 700 00:35:24,600 --> 00:35:28,840 biggest holding this time last year to now no longer, What is 701 00:35:28,840 --> 00:35:31,800 that evaluation? Was that a management, was that 702 00:35:31,840 --> 00:35:33,880 a permitting timelines type of thing? 703 00:35:34,120 --> 00:35:36,440 Why won't you sell out? It's a good bet because it's 704 00:35:36,440 --> 00:35:38,640 going down shit lights. Yeah, well, no. 705 00:35:38,760 --> 00:35:41,640 And, and, and we probably, you know, we didn't sell at the top, 706 00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:45,440 but it's really a relative valuation, right? 707 00:35:45,440 --> 00:35:50,080 So, so Denison's also in the Athabasca Basin vision we own, 708 00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:52,160 which isn't as you, as you know is next door. 709 00:35:53,080 --> 00:35:56,120 So we just thought there's better value in, in, in those, 710 00:35:56,520 --> 00:36:00,320 in those names. Obviously next gen's done a 711 00:36:00,320 --> 00:36:03,120 capital raise. Ultimately, when it gets to 712 00:36:03,120 --> 00:36:05,840 approval, there'll be another big capital raise you'd expect. 713 00:36:07,360 --> 00:36:09,600 I think you guys have commented on, on some of the, you know, 714 00:36:09,640 --> 00:36:12,440 management decisions, which I think the market has also made 715 00:36:12,440 --> 00:36:15,760 it, you know, has, has, has impacted on the market. 716 00:36:16,040 --> 00:36:18,840 But you know, our view is, you know, we're looking at our 717 00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:22,280 relative value and and hence switching to Denison and and 718 00:36:22,280 --> 00:36:25,360 vision. What and do you, we talked about 719 00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:29,240 yesterday that Atha deal, Atha's been picking up bloody ground 720 00:36:29,240 --> 00:36:30,840 ever. It's just this big, the bitter 721 00:36:30,840 --> 00:36:34,600 exploration mania in the Adabaska Basin starting to 722 00:36:34,600 --> 00:36:36,480 happen. Like when, when that sort of 723 00:36:37,400 --> 00:36:41,040 commences, whether it's like over there and, or in Australia 724 00:36:41,040 --> 00:36:43,640 or all over the world, similar to what was happening with 725 00:36:43,640 --> 00:36:44,560 lithium. Yeah. 726 00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:47,680 How do you approach that side of things? 727 00:36:47,680 --> 00:36:52,360 Is it like too, too, too risky, too volatile or like do you 728 00:36:52,360 --> 00:36:54,080 start doubling in that sort of stuff? 729 00:36:55,120 --> 00:36:59,880 Look, I think in in uranium you need to be in the bigger players 730 00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:04,800 because you know, what you've seen is to, to get a project, to 731 00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:07,680 get a project through approvals is difficult. 732 00:37:08,560 --> 00:37:12,360 And then you know, the, the, the whole build out takes a long 733 00:37:12,360 --> 00:37:16,280 period of time. So, and, and I guess more 734 00:37:16,280 --> 00:37:20,320 generally what you've got is, is globally there's actually a, a 735 00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:24,080 lot of uranium out there. It's just the, the, the 736 00:37:24,080 --> 00:37:27,120 permitting and approvals and and build process that takes so 737 00:37:27,120 --> 00:37:29,160 long. So, you know, my view is that 738 00:37:29,160 --> 00:37:31,880 the best time to be in uranium is really probably in the next 739 00:37:31,880 --> 00:37:37,880 couple of years, maybe next three to five years where supply 740 00:37:37,880 --> 00:37:40,640 is still constrained and demand is starting to take off as as 741 00:37:40,640 --> 00:37:42,960 nuclear builds its position as space flow powers. 742 00:37:43,200 --> 00:37:46,680 Yeah, speaking to that sort of permitting and approvals thing, 743 00:37:46,720 --> 00:37:50,240 I mean, and not to get too political about it, but how do 744 00:37:50,240 --> 00:37:57,240 you see uranium, nuclear more broadly playing out in the 745 00:37:57,440 --> 00:38:02,200 Australian landscape and perhaps becoming a some sort of part of 746 00:38:02,200 --> 00:38:06,680 our energy mix or you know, even just having the ability to mine 747 00:38:06,680 --> 00:38:10,640 it and export it in in WA. How? 748 00:38:10,760 --> 00:38:13,120 How do you say that? Yeah. 749 00:38:13,320 --> 00:38:15,960 I mean, you know, I think Australia has one of the biggest 750 00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:18,040 uranium resources globally, right? 751 00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:21,560 And. Lot of and a lot of, obviously 752 00:38:21,560 --> 00:38:25,560 with Jabaluka and big dams and big contributor to that, yeah. 753 00:38:25,960 --> 00:38:30,280 So I think in, in this day and age where we're moving away from 754 00:38:30,280 --> 00:38:34,360 fossil fuels, it, it seems logical to be able to, to, to 755 00:38:34,400 --> 00:38:36,800 access that and, and sell it internationally and also 756 00:38:36,800 --> 00:38:39,400 developing in, you know, an industry in Australia. 757 00:38:40,680 --> 00:38:43,680 So, you know, I'm, I'm supportive of that, but I think 758 00:38:43,680 --> 00:38:45,440 also think it's part of the mix, right? 759 00:38:45,440 --> 00:38:48,200 I think, you know, you should account for part of the 760 00:38:48,200 --> 00:38:51,480 solution. I think there's obviously scope 761 00:38:51,480 --> 00:38:53,440 for renewables and there's scope for gas. 762 00:38:53,440 --> 00:38:56,280 Is is all supporting? Sources. 763 00:38:56,520 --> 00:38:59,480 What do you, what do you think? Cuz Adam problem's gonna say on 764 00:38:59,480 --> 00:39:02,200 Friday. What do you think's gonna And 765 00:39:02,400 --> 00:39:06,160 cuz if you and when you mate, when you're the stewards of 766 00:39:06,160 --> 00:39:09,480 other people's capital and you're betting on uranium, like 767 00:39:09,680 --> 00:39:13,600 that's like going into Friday and you've got the weekend like 768 00:39:13,600 --> 00:39:16,600 whether people are long or short, like yeah, what comes out 769 00:39:16,600 --> 00:39:20,640 Monday in the market like it's a it's a yeah, pretty volatile 770 00:39:20,640 --> 00:39:22,680 play based on one company speaker. 771 00:39:22,680 --> 00:39:24,840 What do you what do you think is going to happen? 772 00:39:24,840 --> 00:39:28,880 Yeah. Look, look, my view is if you 773 00:39:28,880 --> 00:39:31,400 look at what the analysts are saying, they're saying 774 00:39:31,400 --> 00:39:34,960 production is going to be at one level, but their target and what 775 00:39:34,960 --> 00:39:36,800 they put out will be at slightly higher level. 776 00:39:37,080 --> 00:39:39,360 Yeah. And then they won't achieve that 777 00:39:39,560 --> 00:39:41,680 target, right. So that's. 778 00:39:41,720 --> 00:39:45,560 Irrelevant at the moment. You know, so, so you know, I, I 779 00:39:45,560 --> 00:39:48,560 think there'll be a downgrade just because of what was out 780 00:39:48,560 --> 00:39:50,880 there previously was, was at the high end. 781 00:39:51,360 --> 00:39:54,000 It probably won't be as big a downgrade as the market's 782 00:39:54,000 --> 00:39:56,160 expecting. But I think as we get through 783 00:39:56,160 --> 00:40:00,600 the next 12 months and you know into 25, I think ultimately the 784 00:40:00,600 --> 00:40:04,400 outcome of production will be below the target and and 785 00:40:04,400 --> 00:40:06,640 probably more in line with where, where the market's AT. 786 00:40:07,200 --> 00:40:11,200 So you'd suggest also from from because that a Prom's 787 00:40:11,200 --> 00:40:15,080 perspective that having the market react by forcing up 788 00:40:15,080 --> 00:40:17,920 prices is probably a good thing. Yeah, Yeah. 789 00:40:17,960 --> 00:40:19,760 So. And I think, and I think to 790 00:40:19,760 --> 00:40:25,120 understand because that a prom as a stock is something that 791 00:40:25,120 --> 00:40:29,240 people have to do in terms of if they piss off the stock market. 792 00:40:29,360 --> 00:40:36,480 Yeah, they don't not saying they don't care, but 75% of the mines 793 00:40:36,480 --> 00:40:38,880 are owned by the Kazakhstan state. 794 00:40:38,880 --> 00:40:42,800 Yeah, what you say on the stock market is the 25% free float 795 00:40:43,000 --> 00:40:44,760 Yeah. So who are they going to look 796 00:40:44,760 --> 00:40:46,480 after the most? They're going to look after the 797 00:40:46,480 --> 00:40:48,000 state. They're going to do whatever is 798 00:40:48,000 --> 00:40:50,080 in the best interest, Yeah, of the state. 799 00:40:50,120 --> 00:40:54,920 And if they have to answer to the share market, because for 800 00:40:54,920 --> 00:40:57,040 the other 25%, they'll be like, it's all good. 801 00:40:57,120 --> 00:40:59,720 We we've got we're looking after the big Daddy. 802 00:40:59,920 --> 00:41:02,360 Yeah. And and that's like it's trying, 803 00:41:02,360 --> 00:41:05,040 I'm being sort of trying to wrap my head around like what's the 804 00:41:05,040 --> 00:41:08,960 best for that side. And the the mineral tax is 805 00:41:08,960 --> 00:41:14,280 probably the example of the lifted rates for the MAT over 806 00:41:14,280 --> 00:41:18,440 there is the best you would think the best for Kazakhstan to 807 00:41:18,440 --> 00:41:21,600 make more money. Yeah, maybe at the expense of 808 00:41:21,760 --> 00:41:23,600 Cos Adam Prom. Yeah, the stock. 809 00:41:23,680 --> 00:41:26,280 Yeah, So, yeah. And there's also the sulfuric 810 00:41:26,280 --> 00:41:28,760 acid issue, which, you know, which is another constraint. 811 00:41:28,760 --> 00:41:31,960 So I think it's fascinating, I think and it would be 812 00:41:31,960 --> 00:41:33,880 interesting to see how that how that all plays out. 813 00:41:33,880 --> 00:41:36,920 And we, you know, we saw with, you know, Kamiko's result 814 00:41:37,360 --> 00:41:41,440 recently, you know, the market, you know, took took that 815 00:41:41,440 --> 00:41:42,920 negatively. So it's it's one of those 816 00:41:42,920 --> 00:41:45,000 markets where you got a small number of companies that 817 00:41:45,000 --> 00:41:48,080 dominate production and what they do has a big impact. 818 00:41:48,080 --> 00:41:49,440 Yeah. And the fact that like if they 819 00:41:49,440 --> 00:41:52,720 do say a lift, say they're they even if they do promise a lift 820 00:41:52,720 --> 00:41:57,400 in pounds for 2025, it's all going to Russia anyway because 821 00:41:57,400 --> 00:42:01,000 it's got all that burden off score six and seven. 822 00:42:01,040 --> 00:42:03,400 Yeah, I think for the first two or three years, that's all goes 823 00:42:03,400 --> 00:42:05,040 to Russia anyway. So it's completely 824 00:42:05,040 --> 00:42:10,520 debottlenecked from the western world and even China to to 825 00:42:10,520 --> 00:42:13,840 integrate and China just announced another bloody 6 826 00:42:13,840 --> 00:42:17,400 reactors yeah plan to be built. So it's, yeah, it's a 827 00:42:17,400 --> 00:42:18,440 fascinating. Well, exactly. 828 00:42:18,720 --> 00:42:21,560 And I think that's, that's really the, the point isn't it 829 00:42:21,560 --> 00:42:26,000 is, is look at the demand outlook in the next few years in 830 00:42:26,000 --> 00:42:28,440 particular. It's very strong and supply is 831 00:42:28,440 --> 00:42:32,440 going to struggle to keep up. So I think that's really the 832 00:42:32,440 --> 00:42:34,280 opportunity. Yeah, very good mate. 833 00:42:34,280 --> 00:42:36,440 I've got a couple of bloody. These are a bit random. 834 00:42:36,440 --> 00:42:39,960 I don't know if you're into mining services, but like, and 835 00:42:40,000 --> 00:42:42,160 you know, not, not telling you how to run the fun, but there 836 00:42:42,160 --> 00:42:45,320 might be some IPO opportunities coming up next year. 837 00:42:45,680 --> 00:42:49,800 And I'm thinking maybe MMS and Silverstone, if they actually, 838 00:42:50,760 --> 00:42:53,280 if they actually float. And Dave, look, we've got a 839 00:42:53,280 --> 00:42:58,360 Direct Line if you do wanna get a bit of seed, cause in terms of 840 00:42:58,720 --> 00:43:02,240 two sensational businesses that, you know, I'm predicting might 841 00:43:02,240 --> 00:43:05,120 go on the market next year. Do you say like you'd you'd take 842 00:43:05,160 --> 00:43:07,520 a bit of skin? Oh, bit of skin. 843 00:43:07,560 --> 00:43:10,200 I mean just like I I wanna be the lead manager on. 844 00:43:11,480 --> 00:43:14,480 That maybe that could be the first Test job that could be, 845 00:43:14,480 --> 00:43:15,680 mate. Well, yeah, you're talking about 846 00:43:15,680 --> 00:43:17,600 the global energy transition, Dave. 847 00:43:17,600 --> 00:43:21,440 No, like Silverstein are at the bloody forefront of it mate in 848 00:43:21,440 --> 00:43:24,920 terms of mining the critical minerals to get it it MMS are 849 00:43:24,920 --> 00:43:28,000 getting it out of the ground everywhere for the bloody. 850 00:43:28,000 --> 00:43:30,240 Have you seen what do you think of the old MMS? 851 00:43:31,000 --> 00:43:32,960 This is actually a market related question. 852 00:43:33,240 --> 00:43:37,200 These small mining companies that are actually doing these JV 853 00:43:37,200 --> 00:43:40,600 arrangements with mining services contractors to get up 854 00:43:40,600 --> 00:43:45,520 and going in bit of a hybrid debt arrangement in turn instead 855 00:43:45,520 --> 00:43:48,840 of going to a bank. Well, I, I think it's, I think 856 00:43:48,840 --> 00:43:53,920 it's good. Obviously if you can't get your, 857 00:43:54,440 --> 00:43:57,440 your, your debt or your equity in, in another way, you know, 858 00:43:57,480 --> 00:43:59,360 those kind of partnerships can work well. 859 00:43:59,520 --> 00:44:03,280 So more generally on mining services, we can invest in 860 00:44:03,280 --> 00:44:06,600 mining services companies. And I think one of the benefits 861 00:44:06,600 --> 00:44:11,400 of mining service companies is you kind of you step away from 862 00:44:11,400 --> 00:44:15,040 the commodity price, right. So it's really volume driven so, 863 00:44:15,520 --> 00:44:20,800 so when they come on. Bloody Silverstein at MMS, we've 864 00:44:20,800 --> 00:44:24,480 already got your first investor for the IPR sorted. 865 00:44:24,560 --> 00:44:25,800 Premier RPO. Pleasure. 866 00:44:25,880 --> 00:44:28,440 Do pleasure doing business for the desk. 867 00:44:28,760 --> 00:44:30,320 Yeah. Beauty, right, JD? 868 00:44:30,320 --> 00:44:32,760 You can bring it back to a more serious level if you'd like. 869 00:44:34,440 --> 00:44:36,680 You know, I love it, Maddie, you you won't be too busy on the 870 00:44:36,680 --> 00:44:38,320 desk because those ones will sell themselves. 871 00:44:40,880 --> 00:44:43,200 There are a couple other commodities we've we've got to 872 00:44:43,200 --> 00:44:45,400 talk about. So one in your top five holdings 873 00:44:45,400 --> 00:44:48,360 is Coronado. And yeah, I just want to start 874 00:44:48,360 --> 00:44:51,320 this going from a broader level. Metco, what do you think? 875 00:44:51,320 --> 00:44:54,680 In demand, supply and then hone in on the half year which we 876 00:44:54,680 --> 00:44:56,800 were chatting about before we started recording. 877 00:44:56,920 --> 00:45:00,800 Yeah. So, you know, I think a big 878 00:45:00,800 --> 00:45:03,680 change even over the last 12 months is, is a better 879 00:45:03,840 --> 00:45:06,080 understanding in the market of the difference between thermal 880 00:45:06,080 --> 00:45:09,520 coal and metcoal and metcoal's role in, you know, steel 881 00:45:09,520 --> 00:45:11,480 production and the fact that, you know, it's kind of a 882 00:45:11,480 --> 00:45:15,440 necessary commodity. So, so I think what you're 883 00:45:15,440 --> 00:45:18,760 saying is from an investment perspective, that is becoming 884 00:45:20,400 --> 00:45:22,480 more acceptable, which, which, which is good. 885 00:45:24,440 --> 00:45:26,520 What you're not seeing though, is a whole lot of money going 886 00:45:26,520 --> 00:45:29,640 into, into new projects. So it's that whole, you know, 887 00:45:29,640 --> 00:45:33,280 demand is actually stayed, you know, very strong. 888 00:45:33,880 --> 00:45:36,320 And I think we'll increase on the back of what's happening in 889 00:45:36,320 --> 00:45:39,680 India, which is an increasing bar of, of Australian Medco, 890 00:45:40,720 --> 00:45:43,160 whereas supply is going to be constrained because it's very 891 00:45:43,160 --> 00:45:47,760 hard to get new mines permitted and approved and, and, and old 892 00:45:47,760 --> 00:45:49,400 mines are starting to, to run off. 893 00:45:49,400 --> 00:45:53,960 So, and Australia has, you know, among the highest quality met 894 00:45:53,960 --> 00:45:57,520 coal mines in the world, right? So, so the from the commodity 895 00:45:57,520 --> 00:46:01,960 level looks good. Coronado as a, as a player in 896 00:46:01,960 --> 00:46:05,400 that, you know, we also really like, it's probably had a bit of 897 00:46:05,400 --> 00:46:10,440 an up and down kind of history. But I think under the existing 898 00:46:10,440 --> 00:46:14,720 management team, particularly the, the second quarter result 899 00:46:14,720 --> 00:46:17,960 was really good at Cara in, in Queensland where I think you saw 900 00:46:17,960 --> 00:46:23,520 mining costs go from $125.00 a tonne down to about $95 a tonne. 901 00:46:23,560 --> 00:46:26,240 And they're pushing that down to so in the 80s. 902 00:46:26,240 --> 00:46:31,040 And that's partly because they had a lot of material movement 903 00:46:31,040 --> 00:46:33,480 they had to do and sort of optimise the way the mine is 904 00:46:33,480 --> 00:46:36,280 being operated. But it's all very well to say 905 00:46:36,280 --> 00:46:38,400 you're going to do that, but then actually deliver it and 906 00:46:38,400 --> 00:46:41,520 show the results. I think it's an EBIT to 907 00:46:41,560 --> 00:46:44,400 enterprise value multiple of, you know, three times, something 908 00:46:44,400 --> 00:46:46,680 like that. So they get this right. 909 00:46:46,680 --> 00:46:49,840 From a value perspective it looks good, but also the 910 00:46:49,840 --> 00:46:52,240 commodity level looks good. Well, it was everyone starting 911 00:46:52,240 --> 00:46:54,240 to lose their patience a bit with Coronado. 912 00:46:54,240 --> 00:46:58,120 Like everyone was like it's like a bit of a noted as that 913 00:46:58,120 --> 00:47:00,160 underperformer for the Met, the Met car. 914 00:47:00,160 --> 00:47:02,000 Well, yeah, it sounds like it's. Yeah, I think. 915 00:47:02,000 --> 00:47:03,440 Possibly turning around. Yeah. 916 00:47:03,440 --> 00:47:06,040 Well, exactly. And and I think the market is 917 00:47:06,040 --> 00:47:08,320 still saying, well, that's a good first step, but let's see 918 00:47:08,320 --> 00:47:10,440 you, let's see you follow through here. 919 00:47:10,800 --> 00:47:13,080 The the other factor with Coronado is always under 920 00:47:13,080 --> 00:47:17,040 takeover for, you know, sort of a rolling takeover for a period 921 00:47:17,040 --> 00:47:18,680 of time and that's now sort of dropped off. 922 00:47:18,680 --> 00:47:23,120 But what it highlights and I think we're seeing that more 923 00:47:23,120 --> 00:47:27,080 generally is that there is demand for good quality met coal 924 00:47:27,080 --> 00:47:30,960 assets and you've got a major shareholder in Coronado that is 925 00:47:30,960 --> 00:47:33,520 probably a seller. So you know, you've got the 926 00:47:33,520 --> 00:47:36,000 added kicker of something that looks cheap, but with corporate, 927 00:47:36,720 --> 00:47:39,360 corporate opportunity. And then another one I'm keen to 928 00:47:39,360 --> 00:47:43,920 chat about rare earths. So meteoric I saw was a holding 929 00:47:43,920 --> 00:47:48,000 last time, last time you reported your, your holdings and 930 00:47:48,000 --> 00:47:51,560 that they've, you know, had a pretty, pretty tough few months 931 00:47:51,560 --> 00:47:53,240 of it. Not just them, but you look 932 00:47:53,240 --> 00:47:55,720 across the the rare earths and I think, you know, Linus is the 933 00:47:56,120 --> 00:47:59,440 the good one to tune into to get a feel for where this market is 934 00:47:59,440 --> 00:48:01,720 kind of at. But what, what are you sort of 935 00:48:01,720 --> 00:48:03,800 feeling on that side of things? Obviously you're at the whims of 936 00:48:03,800 --> 00:48:06,280 China to a large extent. How do you sort of see that 937 00:48:06,280 --> 00:48:09,240 playing out? Yeah, it's, it's a good 938 00:48:09,240 --> 00:48:10,920 question. And it probably comes back to 939 00:48:10,920 --> 00:48:13,760 what we were talking about at the outset around, you know, 940 00:48:14,520 --> 00:48:16,760 observe, react rather than predict. 941 00:48:16,760 --> 00:48:20,720 And I think the view we got to, you know, for most of this year 942 00:48:20,720 --> 00:48:26,040 was, you know, rarest MDPR prices were really low and do we 943 00:48:26,040 --> 00:48:28,920 need to be here? And are we better off not trying 944 00:48:28,920 --> 00:48:32,320 to sort of predict that a turn around might come, but wait 945 00:48:32,320 --> 00:48:34,600 until that turn around happens and then re re enter? 946 00:48:34,600 --> 00:48:37,560 So we haven't been in liners for some time. 947 00:48:39,280 --> 00:48:41,680 You know, we're looking at, at meteoric and we actually bought 948 00:48:41,680 --> 00:48:44,440 a small holding just about the time of the, the capital raise. 949 00:48:47,640 --> 00:48:51,040 And I think the Brazilian rare earth industry is, is 950 00:48:51,040 --> 00:48:53,960 fascinating because the potential to reduce the 951 00:48:53,960 --> 00:48:56,720 operating costs in the industry is significant. 952 00:48:56,720 --> 00:49:01,440 So it's, you know, I, I think it's, it's one of those sectors 953 00:49:01,440 --> 00:49:05,480 where the, the commodity prices depressed, the negative is you 954 00:49:05,480 --> 00:49:08,480 got processing and you've got the raw material dominated by 955 00:49:08,480 --> 00:49:12,880 China, which is never, never a place you want to go to if you 956 00:49:12,880 --> 00:49:17,480 can avoid it. But but rare earths are just so 957 00:49:17,480 --> 00:49:21,760 critical and there's potential opportunity by the really good 958 00:49:21,760 --> 00:49:23,400 quality assets at at a cheap price. 959 00:49:23,400 --> 00:49:26,360 So, you know, Lioness will keep watching media. 960 00:49:26,360 --> 00:49:29,440 We've got a small holding and and really interested to see 961 00:49:29,440 --> 00:49:32,840 what comes out of Brazil there. Yeah, with the with Brazil, like 962 00:49:33,240 --> 00:49:36,120 everyone's talking about lot lowering the operating costs, 963 00:49:37,360 --> 00:49:40,600 but I assume that is labour a lot cheaper over there. 964 00:49:40,680 --> 00:49:43,680 Yeah, it it would because like they talk about like obviously 965 00:49:43,680 --> 00:49:45,960 the hydro powers. Yeah, a lot cheaper. 966 00:49:46,040 --> 00:49:49,720 Yeah, but you think of I wouldn't imagine, and correct me 967 00:49:49,720 --> 00:49:54,120 if I'm wrong, if a like a rare earth project and even even the 968 00:49:54,120 --> 00:49:57,440 lithium projects over there a lot the the spot like lithium 969 00:49:57,440 --> 00:50:01,080 projects, what they DMS only they crush to six mil yeah, so 970 00:50:01,080 --> 00:50:03,720 you can't say they're going to use shit loads of power for 971 00:50:03,800 --> 00:50:07,880 crushing and then rarest probably wouldn't use shit loads 972 00:50:07,880 --> 00:50:11,960 of power compared to the gold processing plant grinding down 973 00:50:11,960 --> 00:50:15,440 to 75 Micron. But I assume the labour is. 974 00:50:16,080 --> 00:50:17,880 A well. Bloody saving as well. 975 00:50:17,960 --> 00:50:21,680 Well, I, I think you're right. And you know, I mean, and we'll 976 00:50:21,680 --> 00:50:24,800 probably talk on, on Pilbara and, and Latin, which is, which 977 00:50:24,800 --> 00:50:27,360 is in Brazil as well. But you know, what's attractive 978 00:50:27,360 --> 00:50:31,320 about that location is, is you've got, you know, cheap 979 00:50:31,320 --> 00:50:34,680 labour costs, you've got cheap hydro costs, you've got, you 980 00:50:34,680 --> 00:50:40,040 know, relatively rapid approvals process so. 981 00:50:40,520 --> 00:50:43,000 Which should lead to cheaper construction costs. 982 00:50:43,000 --> 00:50:45,840 Exactly, construction costs are lower as well, right? 983 00:50:46,680 --> 00:50:51,760 But but just the nature of the of the ionic clays is the the 984 00:50:51,760 --> 00:50:55,000 actual extraction process is much is much easier as well. 985 00:50:55,320 --> 00:50:59,920 Because I think equities, rare earth equities of sort of kept 986 00:50:59,920 --> 00:51:03,520 sliding even though the NDPR prices stayed pretty flat. 987 00:51:03,520 --> 00:51:07,600 I think NDPR has gone up a bit, 43 to 47 last. 988 00:51:07,600 --> 00:51:12,160 Time well yeah but but even at 50 at 50 bucks no one's really 989 00:51:12,160 --> 00:51:16,240 making money right so that's that's the issue it's it's 990 00:51:16,280 --> 00:51:18,040 difficult so it. Doesn't matter if it goes up or 991 00:51:18,040 --> 00:51:19,360 down, you're just losing money either way. 992 00:51:19,680 --> 00:51:23,720 Yeah, and or not mining. And just on that as well day of 993 00:51:23,720 --> 00:51:28,040 sort of mentioning Brazil more broadly and you know, Pilbara's 994 00:51:28,320 --> 00:51:32,800 foray into South America, you know, there was a big a big 995 00:51:32,800 --> 00:51:38,480 article in in the West about Dale singing his praises for for 996 00:51:38,480 --> 00:51:41,040 Brazil. I mean, you know, a big move 997 00:51:41,040 --> 00:51:43,680 like a major like that. What do you think that and in 998 00:51:43,880 --> 00:51:47,120 particularly a lot of what's been happening in in Australia 999 00:51:47,120 --> 00:51:51,480 this week as far as the whole permitting and approval sort of 1000 00:51:51,840 --> 00:51:55,600 landscape, you know, what do you think that that and the 1001 00:51:55,640 --> 00:51:58,240 Pilbara's move sort of says about it all? 1002 00:51:58,840 --> 00:52:01,160 Yeah. Look, so I'm, I think it's a 1003 00:52:01,160 --> 00:52:03,040 good, I think it's a good deal for Pilbara. 1004 00:52:05,120 --> 00:52:08,200 You know, what they're doing is with very little dilution to 1005 00:52:08,200 --> 00:52:11,440 their equity, they're adding a project that could potentially 1006 00:52:11,440 --> 00:52:14,840 be, you know, four hundred 450,000 tonnes of spodumene a 1007 00:52:14,840 --> 00:52:17,520 year. But more importantly, if you 1008 00:52:17,520 --> 00:52:20,920 take a view that spot mean prices might stay lower than 1009 00:52:20,920 --> 00:52:24,560 where we think they where they think they should be, It's a 1010 00:52:24,560 --> 00:52:27,360 project that's going to be at the lower end of the cost curve. 1011 00:52:27,360 --> 00:52:30,520 And it's for those reasons. It's low labour, it's low power 1012 00:52:30,520 --> 00:52:33,680 cost, it's planning approvals, low capital costs. 1013 00:52:34,480 --> 00:52:39,600 So you know, for a relatively small outlay, I think it's a, 1014 00:52:39,600 --> 00:52:41,240 it's a good part of the portfolio. 1015 00:52:41,240 --> 00:52:43,600 And you know, there's been a lot of talk about them looking at 1016 00:52:43,600 --> 00:52:46,840 something like Patriot in in Canada, but you know, and 1017 00:52:46,840 --> 00:52:50,680 that's, that's, you know, a fabulous project, but you're 1018 00:52:50,680 --> 00:52:55,320 talking a whole lot of CapEx and you know, and maybe you know, 5 1019 00:52:55,320 --> 00:52:56,720 to 10 years away. So. 1020 00:52:58,320 --> 00:53:00,720 So it's just an easy bolt. On for him, I think what about 1021 00:53:00,720 --> 00:53:03,760 Sigma, do you think that's going to be in the mix? 1022 00:53:03,760 --> 00:53:09,600 It makes sense obviously, but is do you think a Pilbara of bet on 1023 00:53:09,600 --> 00:53:11,600 Brazil versus Quebec effectively? 1024 00:53:11,600 --> 00:53:13,880 I don't think so. I, I think it's opportunistic 1025 00:53:13,880 --> 00:53:17,400 that you know, I think they want to obviously they want to have 1026 00:53:17,400 --> 00:53:19,760 an exposure there. Whether they want to double up 1027 00:53:19,760 --> 00:53:23,440 and buy Sigma, I'm not sure. So I wouldn't, I wouldn't bank 1028 00:53:23,440 --> 00:53:27,120 on that, but but one will tell. There and that's the thing they 1029 00:53:27,280 --> 00:53:30,920 for the amount of the what is it 6.8% shares they issued lot they 1030 00:53:30,960 --> 00:53:33,000 could yeah, could just sit there for a while, yeah, but they've 1031 00:53:33,000 --> 00:53:33,680 got it. Yeah. 1032 00:53:33,920 --> 00:53:36,160 Yeah, exactly. And they got the optionality. 1033 00:53:36,160 --> 00:53:36,840 Yeah. Yeah, exactly. 1034 00:53:37,320 --> 00:53:39,080 Ding Ding on a bit Pilbara as well. 1035 00:53:39,360 --> 00:53:41,680 Sorry. Yeah, You like the bloody ATF? 1036 00:53:41,680 --> 00:53:43,280 Yeah. The GCE. 1037 00:53:45,280 --> 00:53:47,600 TAA, bit closer to home. Dave, what are you thinking in 1038 00:53:47,600 --> 00:53:49,680 Lyntown? I noticed I think yesterday 1039 00:53:49,680 --> 00:53:53,720 morning a bit of an interesting line went through of stock. 1040 00:53:53,960 --> 00:53:56,800 I think in the morning there's a decent amount of stock change in 1041 00:53:56,800 --> 00:53:58,120 hands. How are you kind of thinking 1042 00:53:58,120 --> 00:53:59,920 Trading 80? Cents. 1043 00:54:00,960 --> 00:54:03,600 There was, I think 50 million shares, which is, you know, 1044 00:54:03,600 --> 00:54:07,360 they're a bit under a buck, so not a crazy amount, but above 1045 00:54:07,360 --> 00:54:09,560 average. Yeah. 1046 00:54:09,560 --> 00:54:12,240 Look, look, I think you've got to give the management team 1047 00:54:12,240 --> 00:54:14,640 there a lot of credit for what they've delivered over the last 1048 00:54:14,640 --> 00:54:16,400 year, right? In a difficult market. 1049 00:54:17,040 --> 00:54:19,520 You know, they've basically got to the point they are now on 1050 00:54:19,520 --> 00:54:23,080 cost and on on budget and they've, and they've put some 1051 00:54:23,080 --> 00:54:25,320 funding away, right. So I think that's really good. 1052 00:54:25,840 --> 00:54:30,160 But I think what we all know is that commissioning a lithium 1053 00:54:30,160 --> 00:54:34,560 project is bloody difficult and, and it's going to, and it's 1054 00:54:34,560 --> 00:54:37,760 going to take longer and it's probably going to cost more than 1055 00:54:37,760 --> 00:54:40,600 than you'd want. And then on top of that, you've 1056 00:54:40,600 --> 00:54:43,480 got to spot to me in price at $800 a tonne, right? 1057 00:54:43,480 --> 00:54:46,200 So, so my view is, you know, I give them credit for what 1058 00:54:46,200 --> 00:54:48,920 they've achieved so far, but do I need to own it right now? 1059 00:54:48,920 --> 00:54:51,160 I, I don't. So I'll, I'll watch it through 1060 00:54:51,160 --> 00:54:54,720 that process. I think if you say where's this 1061 00:54:54,720 --> 00:54:57,640 business going to be in five years time, I think it'll be 1062 00:54:57,640 --> 00:55:00,480 there, it'll be producing, it'll be a fantastic asset. 1063 00:55:01,160 --> 00:55:04,600 But I think probably now it's a bit bit too early to jump in. 1064 00:55:05,160 --> 00:55:09,640 Yeah, I think oh what what is old Miss Reinhardt up to? 1065 00:55:10,360 --> 00:55:15,160 That's yeah, that's and I think we talked about like the the 1066 00:55:15,160 --> 00:55:17,880 control she's got on that now no one else is going to have a 1067 00:55:17,880 --> 00:55:19,800 crack at it. Bloody look what happened to oh 1068 00:55:19,800 --> 00:55:22,960 it probably saved out album. Imagine if Albemarle. 1069 00:55:23,200 --> 00:55:26,160 Yeah, it got it through. And I'm sure like if you, if you 1070 00:55:26,160 --> 00:55:30,880 go back in history, imagine if like Longtown entertained the 1071 00:55:30,880 --> 00:55:34,840 original Albemarle deals that were like $1.80, imagine if that 1072 00:55:34,840 --> 00:55:39,400 actually got over the line. I reckon they'd at the time they 1073 00:55:39,400 --> 00:55:41,080 were thinking not worth more than that. 1074 00:55:41,080 --> 00:55:44,440 But they would never have envisaged this was going to 1075 00:55:44,840 --> 00:55:47,200 happen to them just cause of the, the mania. 1076 00:55:47,200 --> 00:55:52,200 But it's just turned so quick and they've just gone through 1077 00:55:52,200 --> 00:55:56,680 the whole greenfields process straight into a shit pricing 1078 00:55:56,680 --> 00:55:59,160 market. So yeah, yeah, so bloody do feel 1079 00:55:59,160 --> 00:55:59,840 for him. That's for. 1080 00:55:59,840 --> 00:56:00,480 Sure. Yeah. 1081 00:56:00,480 --> 00:56:04,320 No, it's you're exactly right. Hindsight's a wonderful thing. 1082 00:56:04,600 --> 00:56:08,600 It sure is Dave. I reckon I'd like to close off 1083 00:56:08,600 --> 00:56:11,240 with a a couple of lessons from the last year and I reckon we 1084 00:56:11,240 --> 00:56:14,520 should do an another overrated, underrated segment as well. 1085 00:56:14,520 --> 00:56:18,520 So what do you feel in the last year, some lessons you've 1086 00:56:18,520 --> 00:56:21,600 learnt, you know, commodity or equity related? 1087 00:56:23,840 --> 00:56:25,560 Well, things can change really quickly, right? 1088 00:56:25,560 --> 00:56:30,680 So you look at lithium, what it shows is predicting what's going 1089 00:56:30,680 --> 00:56:33,000 to happen is, is, is, is difficult. 1090 00:56:33,000 --> 00:56:36,920 So, you know, I look at lithium and when it was $400.00 a tonne, 1091 00:56:37,000 --> 00:56:40,800 you know, 2020, no one thought it was going to 8000 splodge 1092 00:56:40,800 --> 00:56:43,560 rent and and then no one thought it was going to 8000 back to, 1093 00:56:44,080 --> 00:56:47,840 you know, 800. So, so I think that's number 1094 00:56:47,840 --> 00:56:49,120 one. I think probably the second 1095 00:56:49,120 --> 00:56:55,360 point is, is resource sector investing is all about quality 1096 00:56:55,360 --> 00:56:59,600 or bodies, right. So it's mitigating risk and, 1097 00:56:59,640 --> 00:57:02,640 and, and buying good quality stuff that will, that will, that 1098 00:57:02,640 --> 00:57:06,360 will survive and as an investor see you through good and bad 1099 00:57:06,360 --> 00:57:08,720 markets. Unless you're Capricorn and you 1100 00:57:08,720 --> 00:57:11,400 can make a point. 8.9 grand. Yeah, well. 1101 00:57:11,520 --> 00:57:13,040 The. Exceptions. 1102 00:57:13,280 --> 00:57:14,640 Yeah, buddy, the as they've been doubted. 1103 00:57:14,640 --> 00:57:18,320 The Unicorn, yeah. And another one on the, the sort 1104 00:57:18,320 --> 00:57:20,920 of rapid fire random question round. 1105 00:57:21,120 --> 00:57:24,040 I'm keen to know, Dave, what's the, what's the commodity that 1106 00:57:24,040 --> 00:57:26,920 kind of intrigues you most of the market that you know, you 1107 00:57:26,920 --> 00:57:29,520 think there's the most to kind of learn about and get excited 1108 00:57:29,520 --> 00:57:32,760 about? Yeah, it's a good question. 1109 00:57:32,760 --> 00:57:37,640 But you know, I, I tend to focus on the bigger commodity. 1110 00:57:37,640 --> 00:57:41,440 So, you know, I think copper, copper is really interesting 1111 00:57:41,440 --> 00:57:45,240 just because of the, you know, the impact it has on the global 1112 00:57:45,240 --> 00:57:47,160 economy and it's importance to the global economy. 1113 00:57:47,160 --> 00:57:50,480 And it's hard to see how demand might keep increasing and supply 1114 00:57:50,480 --> 00:57:53,600 will be constrained. I think met coals kind of kind 1115 00:57:53,600 --> 00:57:57,360 of interesting as well. Gold is is probably 1, which is 1116 00:57:57,360 --> 00:58:02,800 harder to clarify, you know, where, where demand come from 1117 00:58:02,800 --> 00:58:06,560 from and where the buying comes from and and how the market kind 1118 00:58:06,560 --> 00:58:10,600 of prices it. So, so they're probably, they're 1119 00:58:10,600 --> 00:58:13,440 probably a few. 'Cause how do you like, how do 1120 00:58:13,440 --> 00:58:15,760 you analyse gold? Yeah, like 'cause it's not a 1121 00:58:15,760 --> 00:58:19,040 supply demand thing. To me, yeah, To me, there's 1122 00:58:19,040 --> 00:58:23,360 three buckets, right? We strive gold first is sort of 1123 00:58:23,360 --> 00:58:28,440 the the retail demand from primarily coming out of China 1124 00:58:28,440 --> 00:58:32,160 and India, which is for jewellery and, and, and as a 1125 00:58:32,160 --> 00:58:35,320 store of wealth really. But, but it's really jewellery 1126 00:58:35,520 --> 00:58:38,560 and that market has been very steady for a long period of 1127 00:58:38,560 --> 00:58:40,960 time. Good buying out of places like 1128 00:58:40,960 --> 00:58:44,280 China where, where the, where the the public is saying I 1129 00:58:44,280 --> 00:58:46,760 wouldn't mind having some of my wealth in, in gold jewellery 1130 00:58:46,760 --> 00:58:51,680 just because it helps, you know, helps me keep, keep control of 1131 00:58:51,680 --> 00:58:54,000 it. And that's been stable. 1132 00:58:54,000 --> 00:58:57,280 What you're seeing more recently is as, as gold price goes up, 1133 00:58:57,280 --> 00:58:59,800 demand is actually coming down because it costs more to buy, 1134 00:58:59,920 --> 00:59:01,680 right? But but in general, that's a 1135 00:59:01,680 --> 00:59:05,520 stable market. The next bucket is, is central 1136 00:59:05,520 --> 00:59:07,720 bank buying. And if you look at what's 1137 00:59:07,720 --> 00:59:10,440 happened over the last two years, what has driven the gold 1138 00:59:10,440 --> 00:59:13,280 price has been a surge in central bank buying, 1139 00:59:13,560 --> 00:59:17,160 particularly from China, but also from those global economies 1140 00:59:17,160 --> 00:59:19,520 that don't necessarily want to hold U.S. dollars or U.S. dollar 1141 00:59:19,520 --> 00:59:22,200 assets. So it's places like Turkey and 1142 00:59:22,200 --> 00:59:25,800 Uzbekistan and Russia and stuff. And so that that's really driven 1143 00:59:25,800 --> 00:59:28,600 the price up to date what we're seeing now. 1144 00:59:28,600 --> 00:59:32,080 And then the third bucket is the investor ETF market. 1145 00:59:32,600 --> 00:59:38,360 And really for the last three years, there's been net outflows 1146 00:59:38,360 --> 00:59:41,400 on a month by month basis. It's taken a spike when COVID 1147 00:59:41,400 --> 00:59:46,600 happened, took a spike when we had a banking crisis, inverted 1148 00:59:46,600 --> 00:59:49,360 commerce in the US which lasted you know, a month or something. 1149 00:59:50,040 --> 00:59:53,200 But in but apart from that, outflows had been pretty steady 1150 00:59:53,200 --> 00:59:55,360 going forward. What you saw in the last six 1151 00:59:55,360 --> 01:00:00,280 months is you started to see some inflows from most a lot of 1152 01:00:00,280 --> 01:00:03,520 you know, European markets, but but not from the US and really 1153 01:00:03,520 --> 01:00:07,240 only in the last month is you've seen the US investor come into 1154 01:00:07,240 --> 01:00:08,600 the ETF market. So. 1155 01:00:08,760 --> 01:00:13,040 So what that says to me is. Is there's increasing investor 1156 01:00:13,040 --> 01:00:17,120 demand, more broad based for gold and that's corresponded 1157 01:00:17,120 --> 01:00:19,400 with the price ticking up? What, what's the, what's the 1158 01:00:19,400 --> 01:00:23,080 relative sizes of those buckets? Would you say I think that 1159 01:00:23,120 --> 01:00:26,880 you're waiting? Yeah, so, so the the big one 1160 01:00:26,880 --> 01:00:29,600 would be, well, I think they're all pretty big. 1161 01:00:30,280 --> 01:00:35,360 The ETF side is probably the, you know, the smallest but but 1162 01:00:35,360 --> 01:00:40,160 also the most the most variable on a month by month basis. 1163 01:00:40,400 --> 01:00:42,880 But I'm going to put that down as the most interesting thing 1164 01:00:42,880 --> 01:00:46,920 I've heard all year in terms of learning so about how the how 1165 01:00:46,960 --> 01:00:49,240 the best explain the gold market. 1166 01:00:49,240 --> 01:00:52,720 Oh, that'll be get you short. You can get a free T shirt. 1167 01:00:54,680 --> 01:00:57,120 Appreciate that. And I reckon that opens up the 1168 01:00:57,120 --> 01:01:01,160 the perfect first overrated or underrated question actually. 1169 01:01:01,160 --> 01:01:03,240 So I mean, it's not your first rodeo, Dozo. 1170 01:01:03,240 --> 01:01:05,040 Overrated, underrated or neutral? 1171 01:01:05,040 --> 01:01:09,320 So Aussie dollar gold over 4000 bucks an ounce in a year. 1172 01:01:11,800 --> 01:01:15,320 Fuck, I'm not far away. No, it's not less than 10%. 1173 01:01:16,280 --> 01:01:18,440 So underrated. Underrated. 1174 01:01:18,720 --> 01:01:21,680 Yeah. How about iron ore? 1175 01:01:21,880 --> 01:01:26,200 Does it, you know, sort of does it hold under US100 in one 1176 01:01:26,200 --> 01:01:29,000 year's time? No. 1177 01:01:29,000 --> 01:01:32,160 So I don't know how I translate to underrated or overrated, but 1178 01:01:33,400 --> 01:01:37,240 I I think it'll be around $100 in into a month's time, yeah. 1179 01:01:38,000 --> 01:01:39,760 We'll go neutral then. Yeah, neutral, neutral. 1180 01:01:41,280 --> 01:01:43,640 Yeah. Do you reckon the the ASX 1181 01:01:43,880 --> 01:01:47,800 resource index is higher or lower than where it currently is 1182 01:01:47,800 --> 01:01:50,640 in one year's time? It'll be higher. 1183 01:01:54,440 --> 01:01:59,120 Small Cap Gold, Australia. I think, I think you've got to 1184 01:01:59,120 --> 01:02:03,320 be, I think it's underrated. So I think it's hard to see that 1185 01:02:03,320 --> 01:02:06,480 disconnect in value between the big and the smalls can continue. 1186 01:02:06,480 --> 01:02:10,320 So if the gold price maintains anywhere near it is where it is 1187 01:02:10,320 --> 01:02:12,040 now, I think you'll see money flowing. 1188 01:02:12,840 --> 01:02:17,000 Part 2 of that small cap gold M and I either between themselves 1189 01:02:17,000 --> 01:02:19,680 or from bigger. Absolutely in caps, absolutely 1190 01:02:19,680 --> 01:02:21,760 so underrated. It's and I think there's a 1191 01:02:21,760 --> 01:02:26,360 recognition that needs to happen and and it's obviously easier 1192 01:02:26,360 --> 01:02:28,960 than than developing something from scratch. 1193 01:02:28,960 --> 01:02:32,760 So I I think it's underrated. Broadstar might just merge with 1194 01:02:32,760 --> 01:02:35,280 that every company instead of the next five years. 1195 01:02:35,960 --> 01:02:41,880 Yeah, it's. A good deal flow Brazil or Minis 1196 01:02:41,880 --> 01:02:47,720 juris is a jurisdiction. Look, I think it's I think it's 1197 01:02:47,720 --> 01:02:53,520 fairly rated. You know, I like, you know, I 1198 01:02:53,520 --> 01:02:56,960 like Brazil for the reasons we've talked about, but I don't 1199 01:02:56,960 --> 01:03:00,480 think you can classify as a tier one location, right. 1200 01:03:00,480 --> 01:03:04,040 It's still not without risk. How about Argentina? 1201 01:03:04,040 --> 01:03:05,240 We've seen a bit of action there. 1202 01:03:05,240 --> 01:03:08,000 Do you think that's you know that the risk is overrated or 1203 01:03:08,000 --> 01:03:11,200 underrated? I think it's probably 1204 01:03:11,200 --> 01:03:16,440 underrated, but again, there is still a risk there and I think 1205 01:03:16,680 --> 01:03:19,640 the risk is has come back. I think the new, the new 1206 01:03:19,640 --> 01:03:23,240 government there is outlining a plan that's more supportive of 1207 01:03:23,240 --> 01:03:25,880 mining. But but things can change, 1208 01:03:25,880 --> 01:03:27,920 right? So there's no lifetime 1209 01:03:27,920 --> 01:03:31,720 guarantees in places like that. Permitting and approvals risk. 1210 01:03:33,120 --> 01:03:41,040 I think it's, it's underrated and and I think it's going to, 1211 01:03:41,320 --> 01:03:42,920 it's going to be discussed more in the next year. 1212 01:03:42,920 --> 01:03:46,200 If you if you looked at 1 theme that's going to play out of the 1213 01:03:46,200 --> 01:03:48,840 next 12 months in Australia in particular, I think it's going 1214 01:03:48,840 --> 01:03:50,680 to be that. Why do we actually haven't 1215 01:03:50,680 --> 01:03:55,520 covered it all yet, Nicole? Yeah, it's, it's, it's, it's 1216 01:03:55,520 --> 01:03:57,840 tough. It's, it's tough. 1217 01:03:57,840 --> 01:04:01,480 So I think we all are aware of the story, you know, increasing 1218 01:04:01,480 --> 01:04:04,240 production out of out of Indonesia. 1219 01:04:05,160 --> 01:04:07,440 You know, I think the project to keep an eye on there is the 1220 01:04:07,440 --> 01:04:09,800 Centaurus project again in Brazil. 1221 01:04:11,280 --> 01:04:12,600 I think they've done a great job there. 1222 01:04:12,600 --> 01:04:15,240 If there's one nickel sulphide project that should get off the 1223 01:04:15,240 --> 01:04:18,840 ground, it's that still should make reasonable money at current 1224 01:04:18,840 --> 01:04:24,000 levels and I think there will be demand for it. 1225 01:04:24,000 --> 01:04:27,760 So I think it'd be fascinating to see how that rolls out over 1226 01:04:27,760 --> 01:04:31,560 the next year and whether they can get party to come here at 1227 01:04:31,560 --> 01:04:33,560 the asset level and and really get that happening. 1228 01:04:33,640 --> 01:04:36,080 Is there is there anything on the if you looked at like the 1229 01:04:36,240 --> 01:04:41,320 the spacing between nickel booms in history, like is there you 1230 01:04:41,320 --> 01:04:44,480 know, we've just it's it's live, but it can obviously stay live 1231 01:04:44,480 --> 01:04:47,760 for a while and then it's it's very obviously yeah bust Yeah, 1232 01:04:48,080 --> 01:04:49,000 but. Yeah. 1233 01:04:49,000 --> 01:04:54,080 I mean, you know, the, the expansion in production out out 1234 01:04:54,080 --> 01:05:00,680 of Indonesia is, you know, from a historical perspective, you 1235 01:05:00,680 --> 01:05:02,760 know, the, the volume growth is substantial. 1236 01:05:03,000 --> 01:05:06,280 Now I think demand is also increasing, you know, raise me 1237 01:05:06,280 --> 01:05:10,480 rapidly as well, but there's a lot of uncertainty there, so. 1238 01:05:11,520 --> 01:05:19,560 GCETF is a Ding on Centaurus. Do you think Meadows X the the 1239 01:05:19,560 --> 01:05:21,600 company is underrated or overrated? 1240 01:05:22,560 --> 01:05:24,440 I got to do the Ding Ding because we actually own it in 1241 01:05:24,440 --> 01:05:29,640 the front. So I think it's underrated, you 1242 01:05:29,640 --> 01:05:34,520 know, capped at 380 mil, 180 million cash Tim prices current 1243 01:05:34,520 --> 01:05:37,880 level it's making probably free cash 25 a quarter, 100 million a 1244 01:05:37,880 --> 01:05:40,120 year. Still got a $36 million 1245 01:05:40,120 --> 01:05:47,200 convertible note with Cyprium. So summer parts, it looks looks 1246 01:05:47,200 --> 01:05:49,040 good. Cyprium that that the what they 1247 01:05:50,280 --> 01:05:52,680 do off take. The wankall Bruce. 1248 01:05:52,680 --> 01:05:53,920 Yeah, well, I think there's something today. 1249 01:05:53,920 --> 01:05:55,680 I didn't see the detail I. Haven't seen the 1:00 today. 1250 01:05:56,800 --> 01:06:00,640 Yeah. I think we're all out. 1251 01:06:00,960 --> 01:06:03,000 All right, bloody sensational, mate. 1252 01:06:03,280 --> 01:06:05,120 Anything. Anything you want to talk about 1253 01:06:05,120 --> 01:06:07,600 specifically? Anything you want to bring to 1254 01:06:07,600 --> 01:06:10,200 the table. I think I'm all talked out, but, 1255 01:06:10,920 --> 01:06:12,760 but, but, you know, keep doing what you're doing. 1256 01:06:12,760 --> 01:06:16,440 It's, it's good to have a, you know, a voice in the industry 1257 01:06:16,440 --> 01:06:18,800 that's that's out there every day, keeping people informed of 1258 01:06:18,800 --> 01:06:20,280 what's going on. So, so well done. 1259 01:06:20,280 --> 01:06:22,440 We're having fun. Yeah, bloody good fun. 1260 01:06:23,680 --> 01:06:26,080 It's like, it's like talking driving back from Cal, from 1261 01:06:26,080 --> 01:06:28,840 Diggers. Find a car with JD and JC 1262 01:06:28,840 --> 01:06:30,040 talking stocks. Yeah. 1263 01:06:30,080 --> 01:06:31,360 Alright. What a what a day. 1264 01:06:31,560 --> 01:06:32,760 Yeah. What a 7 hours of it. 1265 01:06:32,760 --> 01:06:36,320 Didn't even need Guns and Roses on the music to keep me awake or 1266 01:06:36,320 --> 01:06:38,080 anything. Yeah, right. 1267 01:06:38,080 --> 01:06:39,680 Oh, good on your day. I appreciate your time as 1268 01:06:39,680 --> 01:06:40,320 always. Babe. 1269 01:06:40,360 --> 01:06:43,640 We're gonna we're gonna have you back in end of the month doing a 1270 01:06:43,640 --> 01:06:50,240 bit of a special with looking. Forward to it. 1271 01:06:50,720 --> 01:06:53,480 Oh God. Bloody much for you there Jimmy. 1272 01:06:53,480 --> 01:06:56,920 Send me some royalties when you again, right. 1273 01:06:56,920 --> 01:07:00,200 Thanks for all the bloody Speaking of royalties, bloody 1274 01:07:00,200 --> 01:07:03,600 Axis modern technology flicking us some royalties every now and 1275 01:07:03,600 --> 01:07:08,280 then and and the the IP, the potential IP as we talked about 1276 01:07:08,280 --> 01:07:11,800 MMS and Silverstone. Apologies if you get inbound 1277 01:07:11,800 --> 01:07:14,080 calls about those. The seed. 1278 01:07:15,000 --> 01:07:19,320 MMS at Silverstone, we've got Verify spec, power and 1279 01:07:19,320 --> 01:07:23,600 technology, DSI, underground CR Insurance, Greenland equipment, 1280 01:07:23,600 --> 01:07:25,920 K drill. Get a spark chart up here as 1281 01:07:25,920 --> 01:07:28,320 well. Hooteru money miners. 1282 01:07:28,720 --> 01:07:29,760 Hooteru. Thanks, Dave. 1283 01:07:30,160 --> 01:07:32,800 Information contained in this episode of Money of Mine is of 1284 01:07:32,800 --> 01:07:34,880 general nature only and does not take into account the 1285 01:07:34,880 --> 01:07:38,480 objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular 1286 01:07:38,480 --> 01:07:40,520 person. Before making any investment 1287 01:07:40,520 --> 01:07:43,600 decision, you should consult with your financial advisor and 1288 01:07:43,600 --> 01:07:46,720 consider how appropriate the advice is to your objectives, 1289 01:07:46,920 --> 01:07:48,920 financial situation and needs.