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Righto muddy miners, another 
Friday special, another bloody 

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Ripper delivered by Axis Mining 
Technology, the trusted advisor 

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and drill. 
Our survey instrumentation and 

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the trust we have for them is 
probably similar to the trust we

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have with everyone else that 
comes on. 

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Just like this fella. 
Straight from the humidity of 

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Singapore. 
Mr Alex Turnbull, welcome to 

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Money of Mine Copper. 
Thank you mate. 

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You've got a light blue shirt 
and I thought you're not allowed

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to wear them in Singapore cause 
of the sweat. 

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I thought it was white shirts 
only over there. 

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Poor mate. 
And there's an advanced 

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technological development. 
You can get them made in 

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Siyasaka so it just stays 
slightly off your skin so you 

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don't get too hot. 
So I've got a lot of them in 

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this climate. 
There's a there's an ice vest 

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under it too. 
Very good. 

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Probably. 
Yeah, exactly. 

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I've seen those people go for 
runs in them. 

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It's crazy. 
Trav give the bloody give the 

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spiel of Mr Turnbull. 
Another great sub stacker out 

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there. 
Yeah, he writes bit of a bit of 

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a frequent writer on his on his 
on his sub stack, which I can't 

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pronounce, so you've got to 
forgive me his syncretica. 

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I'm probably saying that wrong. 
Syncretica, yeah. 

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There we go. 
But, you know, you're, you're, 

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you're an investor in yeah, the 
materials, energy, kind of open 

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source modelling kind of like 
areas maybe he previously worked

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on the, on the special seats 
desk at Goldie's in on the Asian

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special suits desk and spends 
plenty of time. 

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I just like, you know, the way 
you kind of word it to me is you

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think a lot about that interface
of, you know, data, data 

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centres, chips, energy, metals. 
And that's, you know, that that 

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overlaps a fair bit with our 
wheelhouse and what our our 

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listeners think and care about 
as well. 

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So pretty, pretty keen to, to 
explore some of the, the things 

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you've been thinking about, 
Alex, because you know that 

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these are the themes that really
inform the commodity cycles that

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get us excited and demotivated 
at the same time. 

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Yeah, no, it's, it's it's 
interesting. 

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I mean, I've also done a bunch 
of policy work with a think tank

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because one thing I guess I've 
seen now we more golden special 

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since we bought talus and though
the assets that became talus and

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like green bushes out of 
bankruptcy and we we literally 

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just underwrite the tantalum. 
We didn't even think much about 

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the lithium. 
And then you started to have DV 

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thing come along with the Nissan
Leaf. 

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And one sort of consistent 
pattern is is, you know, the 

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tech moves that you know, are 
very quick cadence, but the 

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problem is getting mines up 
takes 710 years. 

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So there's always these kinds of
moments where something happens 

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on the tech side and it leaves 
miners hanging or ultimately 

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something happens on the tech 
side and you have a bunch of 

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semiconductor companies saying I
need a 300 tonnes of 300 million

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tonnes of whatever. 
And there's like literally 1/4 

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of that available. 
So it's interesting as investing

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because it creates these really 
big displacements and shocks. 

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But you got to kind of be 
following both at the same time.

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But you know, it's interesting. 
The way you, the way you kind of

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yeah, described it to me over 
it, you know, text exchange was,

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was the, you know, the, the tech
evolves. 

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You know, before the, the, the 
narratives that, you know, the 

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investment narratives kind of 
evolve and I, I guess you know, 

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naturally then you want to focus
on what, where, where is the 

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tech evolving right now that 
will inform kind of tomorrow's 

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narratives. 
And actually, like, I'm keen to 

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know where are you spending a 
lot of your time thinking right 

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now because of the tech 
evolution? 

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Yeah, I think a lot of the a lot
of what's happened in batteries 

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in terms of people getting all 
the cobalt out, I mean that's I 

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think that's largely played out.
I think that people's consensus 

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numbers on cobalt demand been a 
lot lower has kind of played out

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and then the split between 
nickel and LFP or some people 

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say sodium now I think that's 
also fairly well priced. 

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I'm not sure what's going to get
those two metals off the off the

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canvas, but that's I think 
that's now been absorbed. 

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I think what is very 
controversial now is how much 

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power a data centre is going to 
use and is this going to be an 

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additional over five years, 20% 
bump to US power demand because 

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given the state of permitting 
and power grids and so forth, 

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that's going to be very hard to 
implement. 

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But that would that would be a 
big change to those markets. 

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So spending a lot of time 
looking at, you know, chip and 

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data centre topology, how people
are trying to reduce power, how 

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successful they've been and how 
much is coming down the pipe in 

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terms of energy efficiency. 
So yeah, that's been spending a 

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fair bit of time on that. 
Optical compute, photonics, 

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these sorts of things, yeah. 
So if we just to get a concept 

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of where you think these data 
centres and you know, the world 

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of semiconductors at the moment,
rewind, I don't know, four years

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ago or so when you had everyone 
pivoting to the future facing 

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metals, the everyone, yeah, 
cobalt, cobalt was going to be 

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the thing everyone getting into 
nickel sulphide. 

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Then obviously the, you know, 
the battery uptake change to 

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changed a bit and then it was 
all it was all about this future

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EV demand and obviously lithium 
went bloody bananas and we're 

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here now and it's all just are 
we at that point is that is data

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centres the new a VS from four 
years ago I. 

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I think so. 
So thematically what happened 

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was it's all it's like that's a 
really good comparison because 

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what happened with the EV thing 
was you had policy driven 

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massive push on EV demand, 
particularly in China. 

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And you also had a funny thing 
where due to the COVID mess and 

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a lot of normal ICE companies 
not being able to get their 

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chips made for analogue because 
basically all of Malaysia got 

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COVID simultaneously for about 
four months straight back in 

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2021. 
You suddenly had Teslas were 

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available that their operations 
weren't interrupted. 

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And suddenly there's enormous 
demand for for Tesla vehicles. 

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At the same time, you had all 
those mines shut down. 

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So you know, you're Elita Zeltur
as all these guys. 

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So that just went vertical. 
And similarly, what's happened 

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with data centres is due to AI, 
suddenly people realise they 

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want to invert matrices a lot 
very quickly all at once. 

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So you've had this kind of 
demand displacement in terms of 

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compute. 
What we haven't seen though is 

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how people are going to kind of 
tamp down that demand in terms 

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of efficiencies and that's 
definitely coming. 

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So, so one sort of simple way to
think about it is that anytime 

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you run something along copper 
wire, you've got some resistive 

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losses. 
So you know, you take two sides 

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of an, I don't know if you were 
terrible pyromaniacs as 

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children, but I was two sides of
a 9 Volt battery. 

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Run a copper wire through it or 
try to make an electromagnet 

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gives off a lot of heat. 
If you move that to optical to 

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light, then there's no heat 
losses. 

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So that's a matter that's. 
So the real, the question 

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abstractly is how much 
computation can you do with as 

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little electrical as possible. 
And that's what, you know, 

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people in physical labs are 
exploring the boundaries of, but

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there's a lot of products coming
to market which will facilitate 

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a good chunk of that. 
So what's the if you want to 

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hide in on the actual metals 
between the construction of the 

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data centres and the power 
supply, what are going to be the

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what, what are the the big 
ticket items at the moment from 

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the first pass you'd say? 
Yeah, I mean, definitely it's 

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just, I mean, right now it's a 
lot of so in terms of not so 

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much metals themselves, but you 
see like a lot of the to to 

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dissipate all this hate. 
It's just it's a lot of HVAC, 

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it's a lot of heat management 
companies like Vertiv in the US 

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and just also just you know, 
simple high voltage switches. 

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So I think the Beige Book came 
out last night. 

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We've now got run running four 
straight years of electoral 

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components being in shortage in 
the US between, you know, 

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renewables, build out data 
centres and so forth. 

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So people who make just basic 
switch gears and stuff like that

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or are busy. 
So businesses are doing well. 

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I think in Australia you've got 
various, you know, contractors 

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and electrical who are still 
absolutely booked out here. 

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Comical stories of, of how hard 
it is to get good electricians, 

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particularly in regional areas. 
And I think that's, that's 

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pretty much ongoing. 
So that, that's one stylized 

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fact. 
In terms of the metals demand 

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currently, it's quite very 
copper intensive. 

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But what I'm looking at is how 
copper intensive data centre 

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plans people have planned out 
for 2027 versus something 

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they've built over the last 18 
months and it's quite a big 

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difference. 
So that's only I'm trying to get

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some hard numbers around. 
It's a this might be a dumb 

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question, but with data centres 
in the heat and everything is 

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does silver ever come into play 
as a better conductor of 

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electricity? 
What the best conductor or is 

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it? 
Is that never going to be a 

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thing? 
Not too expensive in in terms of

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the heat dissipation and 
everything. 

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Not not, I don't think so. 
What's Silver's kind of 

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interesting right now is that 
it's a lot of it's used in 

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solar. 
There are technologies to get 

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that, to get the silver out of 
solar if you go to hetero 

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junctions and there's guys like 
Sun Drive and a couple of 

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companies in Germany. 
But what's interesting is, is 

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that because the sector's so 
been so bombed out, no one's 

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going to do the CapEx to get rid
of the silver. 

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So the silver intensity is going
to stay and be very high and you

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can run numbers which are not 
even close to crazy where silver

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starts to become, you know, mid 
30% of total global silver 

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production just for solar. 
And so that that's a metal which

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could get very silly over the 
next couple of years if people 

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don't make that technology 
switch. 

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And no one's going to put that 
money in to make that technology

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switch when they're making a 
negative 20% gross margins as a 

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lot of these guys are. 
So that that's a metal, which is

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kind of set up an interesting 
way where it could get quite 

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bananas for a little while, 
frankly. 

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I, I think the, the elephant in 
the room with regards to, to 

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data centres is energy and where
the old energy will come from. 

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That's obviously been a big 
talking point, at least in the, 

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00:10:00,440 --> 00:10:02,640
the kind of circles that that we
speak in. 

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00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:05,640
What have you sort of learnt 
from from diving in to this at a

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00:10:05,640 --> 00:10:06,840
sort of broader level to start 
with? 

191
00:10:07,880 --> 00:10:09,400
Yeah. 
So I mean, if you think about, I

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00:10:09,440 --> 00:10:11,720
mean, data centre, basically 
they want to keep the ships, 

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00:10:11,720 --> 00:10:13,920
let's call it that sort of more 
or less atmosphere, you know, 

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00:10:14,000 --> 00:10:19,600
ASM like atmospheric 
temperature, so 20 to 40° C, You

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00:10:19,600 --> 00:10:21,240
don't want it to get too cold, 
too hot. 

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00:10:22,280 --> 00:10:25,480
The interesting thing for a lot 
of these data centres is that 

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because they've only just become
insanely power intensive quite 

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00:10:30,080 --> 00:10:33,320
quickly on the AI side in terms 
of, you know, unit per square 

199
00:10:33,320 --> 00:10:37,240
metre footprint, there's a lot 
of stuff you can do. 

200
00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:39,920
And they're also, they're 
normally big flat, you know, 

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00:10:40,120 --> 00:10:41,280
it's not like a vertical 
building. 

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00:10:42,520 --> 00:10:44,640
So there's all sorts of stuff 
going on right now. 

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00:10:44,720 --> 00:10:47,680
People are saying, well, maybe 
we just put a bunch of solar 

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00:10:47,680 --> 00:10:50,640
panels on it and we just freeze 
a bunch of water during the day 

205
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and we just use that as like an 
ice battery. 

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00:10:53,280 --> 00:10:55,960
There's a lot of sort of 
efficiencies to squeeze out of 

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00:10:55,960 --> 00:10:57,800
these things that have largely 
not happened yet. 

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00:10:59,480 --> 00:11:02,520
I think for in terms of like, 
you know, is coal going to stay 

209
00:11:02,520 --> 00:11:05,320
on the grid or is it going to 
continue to retire on as per 

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00:11:05,320 --> 00:11:08,920
projections, you know, 3-4 years
ago that what matters is a total

211
00:11:08,920 --> 00:11:13,240
power demand. 
And what I'm saying is that I 

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00:11:13,240 --> 00:11:16,200
think people's estimates are, 
are way too high right now. 

213
00:11:16,200 --> 00:11:19,320
They're going to come down to 
these efficiencies at the at the

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00:11:19,520 --> 00:11:23,040
ship's level. 
But it's, I think in the short 

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00:11:23,040 --> 00:11:25,760
term, yeah, if you've got a coal
plant which is due to retire in 

216
00:11:25,760 --> 00:11:28,360
2028, it's probably going to get
punted for an extra 2 years at 

217
00:11:28,360 --> 00:11:30,760
this point. 
And is that, is that a trend you

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00:11:30,760 --> 00:11:32,760
see across across the Western 
world? 

219
00:11:32,760 --> 00:11:35,600
Is there sort of, you know, 
disparities in that and how it 

220
00:11:35,600 --> 00:11:38,160
might, you know, play out in in 
China versus America versus 

221
00:11:38,160 --> 00:11:44,760
Australia? 
I think so essentially in places

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00:11:44,920 --> 00:11:48,280
where you have very easy 
permitting to build renewables 

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00:11:48,280 --> 00:11:51,480
or batteries or what have you, 
you still get pushed out faster.

224
00:11:51,480 --> 00:11:53,960
So Germany's done all sorts of 
stupid things with their energy 

225
00:11:53,960 --> 00:11:58,600
policy, mostly around nuclear, 
egregiously so. 

226
00:11:58,600 --> 00:12:00,520
But on the other hand, they have
very permissive permitting. 

227
00:12:00,520 --> 00:12:02,160
So just getting stuff built is 
easy. 

228
00:12:02,600 --> 00:12:04,360
It's a little bit like 
Queensland, but you've got that 

229
00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:07,440
coordinator general thing. 
So just like actually getting 

230
00:12:07,440 --> 00:12:08,920
poles and wires done is just 
simpler. 

231
00:12:10,320 --> 00:12:14,360
So yeah, we're in places where 
you can build the substitute or 

232
00:12:14,360 --> 00:12:17,560
the other sources of power 
things get pushed out quickly, 

233
00:12:17,560 --> 00:12:20,400
but where you can't build 
because you've just got a crazy 

234
00:12:20,400 --> 00:12:24,640
permitting mess. 
Like, I don't know, you know, 

235
00:12:24,640 --> 00:12:27,200
the Northeast US or California 
things got a bit more slightly. 

236
00:12:28,320 --> 00:12:30,600
Is there is there any numbers 
you can wrap around the power 

237
00:12:30,600 --> 00:12:34,800
required for these data centres?
Like as a comparison to to 

238
00:12:34,800 --> 00:12:38,280
something else, like how energy 
intensive they actually are. 

239
00:12:39,920 --> 00:12:41,160
Yeah. 
I mean, look that people are 

240
00:12:41,160 --> 00:12:44,360
talking about a one GW data 
centre that's like a, that's a, 

241
00:12:44,880 --> 00:12:48,040
that's a, that's a, that's a 
big, yeah. 

242
00:12:48,040 --> 00:12:49,880
So, so there's one being 
planned. 

243
00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:53,680
But then they're also looking at
reducing the switching 

244
00:12:53,680 --> 00:12:58,520
interconnect costs using some 
technology by about 80%. 

245
00:12:58,960 --> 00:13:03,400
So you know, there's this race 
between actually demand for this

246
00:13:03,400 --> 00:13:05,960
stuff and, and the efficiencies 
are really starting to come 

247
00:13:05,960 --> 00:13:07,760
through. 
Whereas no one was really 

248
00:13:07,760 --> 00:13:11,680
engineering this stuff from a 
power point of view, you know, 

249
00:13:11,680 --> 00:13:15,840
with a big focus on power until 
1218 months ago when the 

250
00:13:15,840 --> 00:13:18,280
densities got to the point where
you had to start spending crazy 

251
00:13:18,280 --> 00:13:22,240
amounts on getting liquid. 
Like a like you'd be like a 

252
00:13:22,240 --> 00:13:26,040
liquid cooling interconnect to a
chip which pushes through a 

253
00:13:26,040 --> 00:13:28,280
liquid to take off the heat 
because you can't actually do it

254
00:13:28,280 --> 00:13:30,560
through airflow anymore. 
Any degree of reasonable 

255
00:13:30,560 --> 00:13:33,320
efficiency. 
So there's a lot, lot of moving 

256
00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:34,960
pieces right now. 
I feel like it's a little bit 

257
00:13:34,960 --> 00:13:38,120
like battery cathodes were like 
two years ago where nickel and 

258
00:13:38,120 --> 00:13:42,640
cobalt were nuts. 
And suddenly people in whatever 

259
00:13:42,680 --> 00:13:45,560
the physics of the, sorry, the 
chemistry lab at CATL and so 

260
00:13:45,560 --> 00:13:47,960
forth were told, all right, 
guys, like, you know, if you 

261
00:13:47,960 --> 00:13:50,840
want to get promoted in this 
organisation, you need to thrift

262
00:13:50,840 --> 00:13:52,760
a lot of the expensive stuff so 
you get to work. 

263
00:13:52,760 --> 00:13:54,200
And that kind of happened, 
right? 

264
00:13:55,640 --> 00:13:57,640
So I think we'll see more of 
that sort of thing. 

265
00:13:58,040 --> 00:13:59,720
Right. 
So that's what, what, 5 to $10 

266
00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:03,640
billion just to power a data 
centre without building the data

267
00:14:03,640 --> 00:14:06,160
centre effectively, Like if 
you've got to build a one GW 

268
00:14:06,160 --> 00:14:08,640
reactor to power it. 
Yeah, yeah. 

269
00:14:08,760 --> 00:14:12,400
If you, yeah, if you want to 
build a nuclear reactor to pair 

270
00:14:12,400 --> 00:14:15,360
with A1 gig data centre, it's 
it's pretty crazy stuff. 

271
00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:18,440
A lot of the really big ones and
really crazy projects are in the

272
00:14:18,440 --> 00:14:23,080
Middle East, but there's also a 
lot of them where you're saying 

273
00:14:23,080 --> 00:14:26,720
in the US there's one big Amazon
centre where they basically 

274
00:14:26,720 --> 00:14:29,760
teamed up with an existing 
nuclear plant to take the whole 

275
00:14:29,760 --> 00:14:31,880
offtake and. 
That's that does it matter 

276
00:14:31,880 --> 00:14:34,760
where, where the data centres 
are built, where they emerge, 

277
00:14:34,760 --> 00:14:36,640
They just will they naturally 
emerge where there is a, you 

278
00:14:36,760 --> 00:14:40,320
know, a glut of, of, of low cost
energy or is, or is there like 

279
00:14:40,320 --> 00:14:42,880
more to it? 
It depends. 

280
00:14:42,880 --> 00:14:47,120
I mean, so, so you know, 
obviously if you there's latency

281
00:14:47,120 --> 00:14:50,080
as an issue. 
So if you, if you're whatever 

282
00:14:50,080 --> 00:14:54,080
requests information from, I 
don't know, a Spotify server on 

283
00:14:54,080 --> 00:14:57,840
AVPN, it's just laggy. 
And that's annoying if you 

284
00:14:58,320 --> 00:15:00,280
request it from somewhere 
locally. 

285
00:15:00,280 --> 00:15:03,200
So distance is important for 
certain applications. 

286
00:15:03,520 --> 00:15:05,800
But if you're just doing a big 
training run, like you're 

287
00:15:05,800 --> 00:15:10,480
ingesting some obscene amount of
data to make GPT 5 or whatever, 

288
00:15:10,960 --> 00:15:13,840
location doesn't really matter. 
So try, so I think for 

289
00:15:13,840 --> 00:15:16,920
inference, which is where you 
actually, you know, actually run

290
00:15:16,920 --> 00:15:18,920
a question to the model and get 
a reply. 

291
00:15:19,720 --> 00:15:21,960
You, you obviously don't want to
be waiting 5 seconds for a 

292
00:15:21,960 --> 00:15:24,600
reply, but if you're just doing 
a big training run, I mean, you 

293
00:15:24,600 --> 00:15:26,200
don't care. 
That's not something you as a 

294
00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:30,200
consumer observe. 
So they what about the modelling

295
00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:33,640
of it is like where is it sit at
the moment about all this, the 

296
00:15:33,840 --> 00:15:36,640
power required and the copper 
required for data centres. 

297
00:15:36,640 --> 00:15:40,960
Is this like one, how much, how 
much exists at the moment and 

298
00:15:40,960 --> 00:15:45,000
what is being modelled for the 
future projections of these data

299
00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:47,560
centres or is it, yeah, very 
opaque at the moment. 

300
00:15:48,240 --> 00:15:50,600
It's, it's pretty opaque. 
So if you look at, if you go to 

301
00:15:50,960 --> 00:15:54,360
your friendly neighbourhood 
consultants at Woodmac and so 

302
00:15:54,360 --> 00:15:56,960
forth and they try to give you a
sense, you sort of and you poke 

303
00:15:56,960 --> 00:16:01,200
them pretty hard on the details,
which is what I like to do find 

304
00:16:01,200 --> 00:16:04,600
there's not as much there, which
is why I've been spent a lot of 

305
00:16:04,600 --> 00:16:07,840
time talking to interconnect 
companies and other sort of 

306
00:16:08,040 --> 00:16:10,720
businesses to really get my head
around what those actual numbers

307
00:16:10,720 --> 00:16:14,320
are. 
I think right now they're pretty

308
00:16:14,320 --> 00:16:15,800
accurate on what the intensity 
is now. 

309
00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:17,280
I think they can tell you where 
we are today. 

310
00:16:18,080 --> 00:16:21,600
I think going forward, some of 
their projections, if you look 

311
00:16:21,600 --> 00:16:26,040
at various ways companies have 
thrifting on power and normally 

312
00:16:26,600 --> 00:16:28,320
thrifting on power means 
thrifting on COP. 

313
00:16:28,560 --> 00:16:31,400
They're kind of the same thing 
for that fundamental physical 

314
00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:34,640
reason. 
Those things are going to pick 

315
00:16:34,640 --> 00:16:37,160
up in a quite a big way, but 
really not for the next 18 

316
00:16:37,160 --> 00:16:40,800
months, I would say just in 
terms of the late times of how 

317
00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:43,880
people plan this stuff out. 
But once that starts to hit, 

318
00:16:43,880 --> 00:16:46,560
it'll, I think it'll be, it'll 
feel a little bit like what 

319
00:16:46,560 --> 00:16:48,680
happened with battery metals 
once all the Indonesian nickel 

320
00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:53,440
supply starts to come on or once
all the mysterious spodumain out

321
00:16:53,440 --> 00:16:57,240
of Africa started to turn up and
people supply demand balances. 

322
00:16:57,240 --> 00:16:59,520
But no one could really track it
at the port level that well. 

323
00:16:59,840 --> 00:17:02,960
So I, I think it's going to be 
the short like it's like a lot 

324
00:17:02,960 --> 00:17:04,839
of things in commodities. 
In the short run, momentum tends

325
00:17:04,839 --> 00:17:08,599
to work, but in the long run, 
you know main reversions are a 

326
00:17:08,599 --> 00:17:11,400
real pain in the bum. 
Well all this bloody all that, 

327
00:17:11,599 --> 00:17:15,280
the heat coming out of these 
these data centres and the 

328
00:17:15,440 --> 00:17:17,560
bloody the water cooling 
required. 

329
00:17:17,560 --> 00:17:20,680
Mate, I'm bloody thirsty. 
If I can feel the heat, drink it

330
00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:26,720
out of my green water bottle. 
Geez that just just green lands 

331
00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:31,040
popped in me head. 
Green water bloody tell you what

332
00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:34,120
isn't. 
Ohh mate, have a have a look at 

333
00:17:34,120 --> 00:17:35,800
this. 
You've got me. 

334
00:17:35,880 --> 00:17:38,120
Pipes. 
Wow, water pipes. 

335
00:17:38,280 --> 00:17:43,120
Jesus, pipes pipes, pipes. 
There is water pipes flying out 

336
00:17:43,120 --> 00:17:46,000
the door at Greenlands. 
Talk about moving a shit tonne 

337
00:17:46,000 --> 00:17:48,160
of water. 
Look at the size of these pipes.

338
00:17:48,160 --> 00:17:50,200
They could transport a lot of 
water, they could cool data 

339
00:17:50,200 --> 00:17:51,480
centres, they could build mines,
they could. 

340
00:17:51,720 --> 00:17:55,120
But they could transport iced 
water to go straight into the 

341
00:17:55,120 --> 00:17:57,840
data centre to keep that bastard
at 20 to 40. 

342
00:17:57,840 --> 00:18:00,800
You want water, you don't want 
water, They'll they'll fix it 

343
00:18:00,800 --> 00:18:03,120
both for you, right? 
10K10K. 

344
00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:06,160
If you don't know if you want 
water or don't on it, I'll tell 

345
00:18:06,160 --> 00:18:08,840
you if you need it or not. 
Simple as that. 

346
00:18:09,040 --> 00:18:12,720
So make pipes, buddy. 
Hey, they're freaking huge. 

347
00:18:12,840 --> 00:18:14,240
Think water. 
Think Greenlands. 

348
00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:16,320
Very easy. 
Think data centres. 

349
00:18:16,320 --> 00:18:20,880
Think Greenlands. 
And the the to your to build on 

350
00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:24,640
your analogy to EVs Maddie, like
the the flimsy part, I imagine 

351
00:18:24,640 --> 00:18:28,320
is just, you know, projecting 
what the the the intensity is 

352
00:18:28,320 --> 00:18:30,800
actually going to be over time. 
Like how how how how? 

353
00:18:31,560 --> 00:18:33,840
Well, that's, that's what 
happened with, didn't it? 

354
00:18:33,840 --> 00:18:36,640
Isn't that what also happened in
the lithium modelling, how they,

355
00:18:36,760 --> 00:18:39,360
yeah, they got wrong the actual 
amount of lithium intensity 

356
00:18:39,360 --> 00:18:43,000
going into the batteries, Yeah. 
And was kind of confused with 

357
00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:45,160
the inventory levels, right? 
Yeah, we didn't know what was 

358
00:18:45,160 --> 00:18:46,800
sitting, you know, at the the 
battery. 

359
00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:51,440
Maker, just a big ball of fuck. 
Yeah, I mean it's so it's funny 

360
00:18:51,440 --> 00:18:53,520
on the lithium thing. 
So paper just came out with a 

361
00:18:53,720 --> 00:18:55,440
normally what they do is they 
pre lithiate. 

362
00:18:55,440 --> 00:18:58,840
So they sort of charge the 
battery slightly, let it sort of

363
00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:02,280
marinate for a period of time in
order to develop an interface 

364
00:19:02,280 --> 00:19:06,800
layer on the anode, right. 
And so people just tried, why 

365
00:19:06,800 --> 00:19:08,960
don't we just run a bunch more 
current through it all, more 

366
00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:12,160
lithium out of the solution, 
have a thicker interface layer. 

367
00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:13,880
And what does that do to the 
properties of battery and 

368
00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:16,560
actually means you can get 
almost double the cycle life. 

369
00:19:16,560 --> 00:19:19,480
So great. 
But this is, you know, it's 

370
00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:22,000
funny you read these chemistry 
papers and some guys like, oh, 

371
00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:24,040
look, I've doubled the cycle up.
I'm like, good for you, pal. 

372
00:19:24,560 --> 00:19:27,800
And they're like, yeah, but we 
need like 25% more lithium per 

373
00:19:27,800 --> 00:19:30,240
kWh. 
Now I'm like, that is that is 

374
00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:31,800
actually a big deal and 
resources. 

375
00:19:32,240 --> 00:19:40,240
So it's funny how there's people
on the yeah, I think there's 

376
00:19:40,240 --> 00:19:45,280
often a lot of upside in talking
to nerds in chemistry labs, or 

377
00:19:45,280 --> 00:19:48,160
at least the people who tell you
at the battery companies where 

378
00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:52,440
their next sort of essentially 
cathode plans are, because it 

379
00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:55,240
has huge effects on supply 
demand balances and this stuff. 

380
00:19:56,000 --> 00:19:58,880
And yet you know that I find the
consultants or at least the 

381
00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:01,120
people who produce the estimates
of long term supply demand 

382
00:20:01,120 --> 00:20:03,360
balances are not super 
responsive to what's going on 

383
00:20:03,360 --> 00:20:05,640
there. 
Alex, you've, you've written a, 

384
00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:09,040
a fair bit talking about lithium
and how the, the Aussie industry

385
00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:13,200
and, and Western industries more
broadly can kind of insulate 

386
00:20:13,200 --> 00:20:15,240
them from the, the volatility 
that we've seen. 

387
00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:18,800
You know, with prices running up
to 8000 now down to a bit over 

388
00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:21,080
700 bucks. 
I think to, to start, it'd be 

389
00:20:21,080 --> 00:20:25,320
good to get a bit of a flavour 
for how you sort of put this 

390
00:20:25,320 --> 00:20:26,480
forward. 
I know you've spoken about sort 

391
00:20:26,480 --> 00:20:28,720
of strategic reserves. 
I'm not sure if you're thinking 

392
00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:30,840
has evolved since you you wrote 
about this. 

393
00:20:31,680 --> 00:20:35,240
Yeah, no, definitely. 
I mean, the, so my thinking on 

394
00:20:35,240 --> 00:20:38,600
this comes from doing far too 
many lithium bankruptcies. 

395
00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:44,840
So, you know, obviously Talison 
got sold out of Sons of Gualia, 

396
00:20:44,840 --> 00:20:46,760
which is they messed up their 
gold hedge in that's another 

397
00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:49,320
story entirely. 
But then you had sort of another

398
00:20:49,320 --> 00:20:52,920
wave of failures where Galaxy 
almost sort of drop dead. 

399
00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:56,920
You then had the wave of 
bankruptcies with sort of Alita 

400
00:20:56,920 --> 00:21:02,160
Altura and so forth. 
And the problem is that from a 

401
00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:05,040
policy point of view, so say 
you, you, you're a government, 

402
00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:06,920
you want everyone to 
decarbonize, you need lithium, 

403
00:21:07,360 --> 00:21:09,800
cool. 
But you need capital to commit 

404
00:21:09,800 --> 00:21:11,960
to that. 
And there's this end point of, 

405
00:21:12,120 --> 00:21:15,920
OK, 2,000,000 tonnes, 3,000,000 
tonnes, LC demand out 2030, 

406
00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:20,920
whatever your number is. 
But to get there, you know, you 

407
00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:24,160
as an investor need to have the 
company survive and not die all 

408
00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:26,960
the time. 
And that's pretty challenging, 

409
00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:30,200
historic. 
And so what's banned also for 

410
00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:32,760
large companies, they tend to 
under invest because they know 

411
00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:35,680
these oversupply periods are 
brutal. 

412
00:21:36,200 --> 00:21:39,120
Part of the problem with lithium
is that you can't really store 

413
00:21:39,120 --> 00:21:41,600
the end product. 
So hydroxide, if you try to 

414
00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:46,440
store that, but more than 12 
months, it's very aquaphilic. 

415
00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:48,880
It basically absorbs water in 
the atmosphere and turns into 

416
00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:51,600
sludge. 
Carbonate's a bit better, but 

417
00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:54,840
not a lot better. 
So the way you kind of would 

418
00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:59,000
manage a market like this is 
being able to store Spodumain in

419
00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:04,000
some way that the problem is, is
that if you want to do some sort

420
00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:08,120
of physical trade where you say 
buy a bunch of copper on the LMA

421
00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:10,600
and then head to the futures 
curve is slipping upwards. 

422
00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:11,920
You can hedge that a couple of 
years out. 

423
00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:14,800
You can you can get like a good 
bit of leverage from bank on 

424
00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:16,760
that. 
You can't do any of that in 

425
00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:20,600
spodumain because there's no 
there's no futures, there's no 

426
00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:25,920
warehousing infrastructure and 
there's no financing as a result

427
00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:28,280
of that. 
So This is why we kind of 

428
00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:32,440
overshoot all the time in 
lithium because there's no real 

429
00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:34,200
bank funding. 
It's kind of the difference 

430
00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:38,120
between a market where you've 
got strategic demand for storage

431
00:22:38,120 --> 00:22:43,320
and physical where you know, I 
can go out and buy it and put it

432
00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:45,840
in a warehouse and so forth as a
fund. 

433
00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:48,480
I can't do that in spudgering. 
So trying to work out how to 

434
00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:51,480
make sponge in a little bit more
of a drawn up LME style market 

435
00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:54,320
is a isn't, I think important 
because otherwise we'll get 

436
00:22:54,320 --> 00:22:56,560
short again. 
It'll take ages, people to put 

437
00:22:56,560 --> 00:22:58,440
supply on and we'll be up at 
some crazy level. 

438
00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:02,040
And then the governments will be
upset because people don't want 

439
00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:03,480
to buy these because they're 
expensive again. 

440
00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:07,000
And that's sort of that sort of 
ping pong thing is not ideal. 

441
00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:09,320
There's some bag holders that 
have really opened. 

442
00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:11,520
That happens. 
On the. 

443
00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:15,320
Stocks. 
Yeah, I mean, so the way I model

444
00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:19,840
it is that if I if you're say 
we're at whatever 700 bucks spot

445
00:23:19,880 --> 00:23:24,480
right now, if you think the long
term incentive price for spot is

446
00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:28,160
say 1500 bucks or probably high 
if you're talking to someone 

447
00:23:28,160 --> 00:23:32,560
like Patron Metals or Minarez or
what have you, then it is vastly

448
00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:35,400
more appealing to just sit on a 
bunch of physical. 

449
00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:38,080
You can store it cheaply and the
great thing about spot is it's 

450
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:40,320
not very reactive. 
You can store it on a womb pad 

451
00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:42,520
for a long time and and float it
later. 

452
00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:44,200
I mean, that's certainly 
happened out of bankruptcies 

453
00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:48,720
before than it is to keep on 
tripping money into some junior 

454
00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:53,160
mining team who are still going 
to conferences, still have too 

455
00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:57,760
much SGNA, you know, not it's a 
basically like there's a lot of 

456
00:23:57,760 --> 00:23:59,920
negative carry. 
I would say in the sense of like

457
00:23:59,960 --> 00:24:03,720
the cost to play in a mining 
company, which is below it's, 

458
00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:07,360
you know, all the AISC is a lot 
higher than just sitting on 

459
00:24:07,360 --> 00:24:10,400
rocks. 
So, you know, a lot of people 

460
00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:14,000
want in physical training, 
they'll just accumulate physical

461
00:24:14,000 --> 00:24:16,120
rather than trying to mess 
around with junior miners and 

462
00:24:16,120 --> 00:24:17,800
all the all the risks associated
with them. 

463
00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:21,280
So essentially but but that's 
part of the reason why stuff 

464
00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:23,880
like copper and zinc tend to 
normalise a bit faster and be a 

465
00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:25,400
little bit more better behaved 
markets. 

466
00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:29,280
So are you saying this, you know
this, this does happen, but it 

467
00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:31,720
tends to happen perhaps with 
commodity traders and people 

468
00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:36,040
more in private markets that 
we're not as sort of Privy to? 

469
00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:39,040
Yeah. 
I mean, so commodity traders can

470
00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:40,880
take a view. 
I mean, I'll give you an 

471
00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:43,080
example. 
In 2015, it's fairly well known 

472
00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:46,640
Glencore accumulated a massive 
position in zinc and then 

473
00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:49,000
preceded to shut down some of 
those zinc capacity, which is 

474
00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:52,040
pretty clever depending on how 
you look at things. 

475
00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:55,080
But that's, you know, you can't 
actually accumulate that 

476
00:24:55,080 --> 00:24:57,600
physical leg in lithium. 
You basically just have to take 

477
00:24:57,600 --> 00:25:01,840
the corporate risk and if you 
want to mess around with futures

478
00:25:02,000 --> 00:25:05,080
on, it's all cash settled. 
That's all references, Asian 

479
00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:08,160
prices, there's a little bit of 
bubbly wobbly stuff in terms of 

480
00:25:08,640 --> 00:25:10,920
how accurate those prices are. 
And then you know, there's stuff

481
00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:13,400
you can't store, you can't sit 
on it for more than about 12 

482
00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:18,120
months at best. 
So that means if you, if you're 

483
00:25:18,120 --> 00:25:20,800
going to bet on the physical 
market normalising, it's going 

484
00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:23,120
to happen in 12 months or else 
you've got to flog your 

485
00:25:23,120 --> 00:25:25,080
inventory very quickly before it
goes bad. 

486
00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:28,240
Whereas if I just want to make 
you like cop cathode, I can sit 

487
00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:30,960
on that for a more or less 
indefinite period of time. 

488
00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:35,360
And so essentially long term, 
long term value investing in 

489
00:25:35,360 --> 00:25:38,880
physical is not possible on 
lithium, which is why it feels 

490
00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:42,000
like a very cracked out market 
wherever on short term because 

491
00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:43,760
they kind of have to be as a 
current stats. 

492
00:25:44,760 --> 00:25:48,320
So on, on a slightly different 
tech, we've seen a lot of the 

493
00:25:48,320 --> 00:25:52,120
companies down here try to go 
downstream IGO Minres briefly 

494
00:25:52,120 --> 00:25:56,200
before they, they sold out. 
You've also sort of, you know, 

495
00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:58,080
in tandem seen a lot of 
discussion with, with 

496
00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:00,480
governments encouraging it and 
what not. 

497
00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:02,280
What, what are the kind of views
you've come to take it? 

498
00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:05,200
You, you spend a lot of time 
looking at, at Asia, you know, 

499
00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:07,800
cattle and the like, who've 
done, you know, phenomenally 

500
00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:11,800
well in their sort of iteration 
and and learning turnover. 

501
00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:14,720
Why have we struggled so much in
Australia? 

502
00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:19,120
I think a lot of, I mean, 
building a refinery is to a 

503
00:26:19,120 --> 00:26:21,160
certain extent it's easier if 
you've done them before. 

504
00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:23,520
And of course China's built a 
lot of lithium refining 

505
00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:25,720
capacity. 
There's also just some of it's 

506
00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:28,200
just the same reason why it 
costs a lot to build a railway 

507
00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:30,240
in Australia versus bilbon in 
China. 

508
00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:33,560
It's just labour costs, 
efficiencies. 

509
00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:39,880
You know, some people would 
point to C, FM, EU, no 

510
00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:43,040
particular opinion on my side 
there, but it's just, it's the 

511
00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:46,880
reason why I built cost building
stuff in, you know, a lot more 

512
00:26:46,880 --> 00:26:49,160
developed jurisdictions is just 
generally more costly. 

513
00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:51,400
There's no, there's no mystery 
there. 

514
00:26:52,280 --> 00:26:58,720
I think the issue is, is that 
the producers, the advantage of 

515
00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:02,200
having downstream is that you 
are selling a end product which 

516
00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:05,440
can be sold directly to Japan or
Korea or where or the US or what

517
00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:07,920
have you. 
Whereas if you're selling spod, 

518
00:27:08,120 --> 00:27:10,440
to a certain extent, you are at 
the mercy of whatever the 

519
00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:16,640
Chinese market is doing. 
And so you particularly in a 

520
00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:20,160
bear market, the discounts and 
physical spot can be pretty 

521
00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:22,240
terrible. 
And so that's what's led to a 

522
00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:24,800
lot of mine failures and 
closures also means if you're 

523
00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:27,800
selling spot to China, you're 
facing someone in Shanghai. 

524
00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:33,240
The understanding of talk law 
and enforceability of contracts 

525
00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:35,640
is going to be very different to
you, historically speaking. 

526
00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:38,440
So we've seen a lot of 
situations like with a leader 

527
00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:41,920
where the Chinese off taker just
said, actually, no, I don't want

528
00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:45,240
to take it to the 800 bucks 
anymore spot 650 and they get 

529
00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:47,600
the company ran out of cash in 
two months or so. 

530
00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:50,720
So there's a there's a credit 
risk mitigating thing there too.

531
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:55,080
So I think there's but you know,
this is another thing. 

532
00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:57,440
It's essentially do order 
companies and people who are 

533
00:27:57,440 --> 00:28:05,200
buyers of chemicals want to have
an enforceable, stable contract 

534
00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:06,560
chamber. 
They want something which is 

535
00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:08,840
going to be very cheap when it's
good, very expensive when it's 

536
00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:11,040
not, and very unreliable at any 
given point in time. 

537
00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:16,080
And so there's a there's sort of
a security versus price trade 

538
00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:19,440
off here, which people are kind 
of ignoring, but tends to bite 

539
00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:21,440
them on the bum at the worst 
possible times. 

540
00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:23,880
I did. 
I did not know about that that 

541
00:28:23,880 --> 00:28:26,240
detail with with a leader in 
there and they're. 

542
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:30,120
Also, yeah, and Altura, they 
were, they were getting they 

543
00:28:30,120 --> 00:28:33,120
they also had, you know, people 
not taking cargoes or deferring 

544
00:28:33,120 --> 00:28:35,440
cargoes non stop. 
This is yeah. 

545
00:28:35,440 --> 00:28:40,040
It was sort of interesting how a
lot of these guys in 2019, they 

546
00:28:40,040 --> 00:28:42,040
didn't raise equity when they 
cook because they're off taker 

547
00:28:42,040 --> 00:28:43,840
and say no, no, no, I'm good for
it, I'm good for it, I'm good 

548
00:28:43,840 --> 00:28:44,960
for it. 
And then suddenly, actually I'm 

549
00:28:44,960 --> 00:28:48,960
gonna take any material, get 
wrecked, come and send me that 

550
00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:51,920
is. 
Maybe like the last one on, on 

551
00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:55,200
kind of, you know, the lithium 
companies like you've had a fair

552
00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:58,400
bit of work with the, the, the 
miners that have found their way

553
00:28:58,400 --> 00:28:59,840
into bankruptcy for whatever 
reason. 

554
00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:03,360
Yeah, I'm, I'm. 
I'm guessing you'd take a 

555
00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:05,960
relatively positive view on the 
on the credit case for a lot of 

556
00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:08,720
these miners, but I'd be curious
to know your view on the equity 

557
00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:10,920
case? 
Yeah. 

558
00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:16,160
I mean, so the problem is the 
credit case is that it's hard. 

559
00:29:16,320 --> 00:29:18,720
You really have, you're really 
kind of the problem is there's 

560
00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:22,120
no way to really hedge or manage
physical risk now. 

561
00:29:22,560 --> 00:29:25,640
So the credit case is you might 
as well be getting paid equity 

562
00:29:25,640 --> 00:29:28,480
returns in the good times 
because you're certainly taking 

563
00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:30,360
something close to equity risk 
in the bad times. 

564
00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:35,080
I think on the equity case now 
the issue is, is that are we 

565
00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:40,680
going to get some voluntary 
reduction in supply to stabilise

566
00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:43,560
the market somewhat? 
I think we should. 

567
00:29:43,560 --> 00:29:47,560
The reason is, is that a lot of 
these miners don't have a tonne 

568
00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:49,640
of debt. 
I guess min res is a notable 

569
00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:51,960
exception now. 
So they do have the capacity. 

570
00:29:51,960 --> 00:29:54,560
So we're just going to throttle 
back supply until this balances 

571
00:29:54,560 --> 00:29:56,720
and we're not going to produce 
any losses. 

572
00:29:58,120 --> 00:30:01,760
So I think there's the scope for
these guys to kind of reduce 

573
00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:04,440
output without getting in 
trouble with their creditors. 

574
00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:07,560
Whereas a lot of these guys last
time around had covenants with 

575
00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:09,800
creditors where they said you 
got to produce or like we're 

576
00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:12,440
going to pull on this line next 
week, which just made the sell 

577
00:30:12,440 --> 00:30:14,720
off all the worse. 
And so I think that there's 

578
00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:16,160
scope for supply discipline. 
Now. 

579
00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:21,680
I, I think the equities though 
that they will only bottom and 

580
00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:23,520
physical kind of bottoms. 
And the scary thing for a lot of

581
00:30:23,520 --> 00:30:26,040
the equities now is a lot of 
these guys are making pretty 

582
00:30:26,040 --> 00:30:28,840
sizable cash losses. 
So, you know, you look at all 

583
00:30:28,840 --> 00:30:31,200
these names and if things don't 
get better soon, that you've got

584
00:30:31,200 --> 00:30:32,920
to assume there's a certain 
amount of dilution coming down 

585
00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:35,680
the Pike. 
Given you've spent this time 

586
00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:38,680
looking, you know, all the way 
from the raw materials through 

587
00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:41,840
to the, the, you know, the final
technology. 

588
00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:45,320
I'm interested to hear, Alex, 
what you kind of make of what 

589
00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:49,440
you kind of think the end game 
is for the European and the US 

590
00:30:49,440 --> 00:30:53,880
automakers given the the rise 
of, you know, BYU and the whole 

591
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:57,120
suite of Chinese AV makers. 
Yeah. 

592
00:30:57,200 --> 00:31:01,000
I mean, there's, yeah, the 
Germans have not covered 

593
00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:02,920
themselves in glory. 
And I think the markets 

594
00:31:02,920 --> 00:31:05,080
gradually figured that out over 
the course of the last six to 

595
00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:10,240
eight months. 
I think the there's a lot of 

596
00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:13,240
moving parts here. 
I mean, firstly, there's a 

597
00:31:13,240 --> 00:31:16,200
couple of things which have kind
of become quite clear from 

598
00:31:16,200 --> 00:31:19,080
consumer point of view in China.
They've got charging stations 

599
00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:21,200
all over the place. 
People are very comfortable 

600
00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:23,640
buying EB's. 
Nobody wants to be, you know, 

601
00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:29,640
driving an oversized iPhone with
wheels and not be able to charge

602
00:31:29,640 --> 00:31:31,520
it. 
That's sort of a people have a 

603
00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:35,640
natural angst about that. 
So I think demand for EVs in a 

604
00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:39,600
lot of markets is very heavily 
capped by how comfortable people

605
00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:41,960
are about charging. 
So in the US they've started to 

606
00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:44,520
really pick up that roll out. 
So that's that's been very 

607
00:31:44,520 --> 00:31:46,480
constructive. 
But in the interim, you're 

608
00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:49,320
seeing a lot of demand for what 
they call EREVS or extended 

609
00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:53,720
range electric vehicles. 
So you get about plus -100 KS of

610
00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:56,640
range of the battery and then 
you've got plug in for the rest.

611
00:31:57,280 --> 00:32:00,160
That seems to be the sweet spot 
for a lot of markets in the US 

612
00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:05,160
and a lot of Europe now too. 
I think what happened with autos

613
00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:09,520
is they said, OK, we've got our 
core IC thing, we're going to 

614
00:32:09,520 --> 00:32:12,880
have a specialised TV thing. 
But then DVD take up wasn't 

615
00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:15,520
quite as good as they expected 
because people aren't quite 

616
00:32:15,640 --> 00:32:16,840
fully comfortable making the 
jump. 

617
00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:18,840
The guys who are doing very well
right now actually Toyota, 

618
00:32:19,160 --> 00:32:22,240
because I've always had this 
sort of bias towards hybrids or 

619
00:32:22,240 --> 00:32:25,040
degrees of hybridization or plug
in. 

620
00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:30,400
So yeah, so I think that's how 
everyone's kind of like people 

621
00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:32,920
haven't kind of actually, well, 
most of the Autocomp haven't 

622
00:32:32,920 --> 00:32:35,680
kind of got models which are 
really clicked with people that 

623
00:32:35,680 --> 00:32:38,760
well either on price point or 
sizing. 

624
00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:42,640
But that's starting to change 
and in China, of course, 

625
00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:44,320
everyone feels very comfortable 
on DVS. 

626
00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:46,480
They just buy them and be what 
is happy and maximum. 

627
00:32:47,080 --> 00:32:49,120
In, in China, I know you've 
spent a lot of time, Alex, 

628
00:32:50,120 --> 00:32:52,840
thinking about their, their 
energy market and, and the make 

629
00:32:52,840 --> 00:32:56,120
up of it. 
And, and I mean, there's a few 

630
00:32:56,120 --> 00:32:59,040
kind of interesting facets of 
the, of the Chinese energy 

631
00:32:59,040 --> 00:33:01,840
market that you know, aren't 
immediately obvious to, to, to 

632
00:33:01,840 --> 00:33:04,280
people, including myself until I
kind of read, read, read some of

633
00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:06,880
your writing. 
We, we all kind of know about 

634
00:33:06,880 --> 00:33:10,600
the, the hydropower industry 
that, you know, that, that, that

635
00:33:10,600 --> 00:33:13,240
China's the beneficiary of. 
But it's not necessarily like 

636
00:33:13,240 --> 00:33:16,840
strictly intuitive that the, the
reliance on, on or the 

637
00:33:16,840 --> 00:33:20,000
utilisation of hydropower 
actually drives demand for 

638
00:33:20,000 --> 00:33:22,400
import of, of, of coal and, and 
gas. 

639
00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:25,520
Can you, can you, can you tell 
me what, Yeah, what you found 

640
00:33:25,520 --> 00:33:26,960
there? 
Yeah. 

641
00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:29,640
I mean, if you think about just 
think about the shape of sort of

642
00:33:29,640 --> 00:33:32,680
China, it's got a big sort of 
table top in Tibet. 

643
00:33:33,200 --> 00:33:37,640
And then, you know, essentially 
the the cradle of Chinese 

644
00:33:37,640 --> 00:33:41,640
civilization is basically people
who grew crops in the river 

645
00:33:41,640 --> 00:33:45,600
systems that hang off that, 
namely the Yangtze and Yellow 

646
00:33:45,600 --> 00:33:48,920
River. 
So the there's an enormous 

647
00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:52,000
amount of hydro, but you know, 
as in any sort of power market 

648
00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:54,960
with a lot of hydro, whether 
that's Norway or, you know, the 

649
00:33:54,960 --> 00:33:58,040
Alps in Switzerland or Austria, 
it's variable. 

650
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:01,360
And the interesting thing with 
the hydro in China is that a lot

651
00:34:01,360 --> 00:34:04,880
of the hydro, you know, 
basically there's water coming 

652
00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:07,200
off Tibet and Sichuan and then 
going downhill. 

653
00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:10,800
There's very big high voltage to
connect to southern provinces of

654
00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:15,280
Guangdong and Guangxi, which are
big importers of thermal coal. 

655
00:34:15,760 --> 00:34:19,400
So essentially when the hydro 
availability is excellent and 

656
00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:23,000
there's lots of power to export 
from these inland provinces 

657
00:34:23,000 --> 00:34:26,560
close to the southern ones and 
there's a bit of a, you know, 

658
00:34:27,000 --> 00:34:29,400
humid, my chase moment for 
thermal exporters. 

659
00:34:31,000 --> 00:34:33,440
And so, yeah, so I do track it 
because it is important 

660
00:34:33,440 --> 00:34:37,840
statistically sort of more 
medium term signals and Asian 

661
00:34:37,840 --> 00:34:40,719
demand for thermal coal. 
Northern China is kind of its 

662
00:34:40,719 --> 00:34:42,480
own thing. 
They have plenty of coal in the 

663
00:34:42,480 --> 00:34:45,239
north. 
They, you know, unless they do 

664
00:34:45,239 --> 00:34:47,679
something silly on the supply 
side, it's it's a little bit 

665
00:34:47,679 --> 00:34:51,000
more of a stable system. 
So, yeah, but you know, this is 

666
00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:52,639
a thing in Europe too. 
I mean, the years where they've 

667
00:34:52,639 --> 00:34:56,360
got weak hydro, suddenly the 
market feels super tight and 

668
00:34:56,360 --> 00:34:57,680
gas. 
And there's a reason for that, 

669
00:34:57,840 --> 00:35:00,120
right? 
And the good news is that in 

670
00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:02,200
most countries you can get 
really good dam and rainfall 

671
00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:04,920
data. 
And China, the hydro data is 

672
00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:08,520
they kind of often put it online
and make it very difficult to 

673
00:35:08,520 --> 00:35:10,920
scrape and they pull it off. 
It's it's a little bit of a cat 

674
00:35:10,920 --> 00:35:12,560
and mouse game in terms of 
analysis. 

675
00:35:12,960 --> 00:35:15,560
But yeah, it's worth the trouble
I generally find. 

676
00:35:15,560 --> 00:35:19,080
So is it literally how much it 
the variability in the hydro 

677
00:35:19,200 --> 00:35:21,640
based on how much it rains in 
Tibet? 

678
00:35:21,840 --> 00:35:23,840
Is it as simple as that? 
Yeah. 

679
00:35:23,840 --> 00:35:25,640
I mean, basically you get the 
monsoon, right? 

680
00:35:25,640 --> 00:35:27,280
Comes off the Indian Ocean, 
bang. 

681
00:35:27,360 --> 00:35:30,880
It's the, you know, Himalayas, A
lot of it lands on the Indian 

682
00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:33,840
side, a lot of it flows up onto 
the Chinese side, and then that 

683
00:35:33,840 --> 00:35:36,600
sort of drives China's hydro 
system as it goes towards the 

684
00:35:36,600 --> 00:35:40,680
East China Sea. 
That's pretty simple. 

685
00:35:40,680 --> 00:35:43,840
So it's sort of this monsoon. 
The funny thing is now in India,

686
00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:47,560
because you've got also some 
coal imports there, the 

687
00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:52,360
behaviour of the monsoon on the 
Indian side now substantially 

688
00:35:52,360 --> 00:35:54,320
impacts demand for import 
thermal coal there. 

689
00:35:54,320 --> 00:35:58,440
So I didn't do hydrological 
engineering, but sometime or 

690
00:35:58,440 --> 00:36:01,160
meteorology, but it's sort of 
kind of important to. 

691
00:36:01,160 --> 00:36:02,760
Transfer stuff like. 
Asian. 

692
00:36:02,760 --> 00:36:05,640
Column close enough, yeah. 
Yeah, it is. 

693
00:36:05,800 --> 00:36:08,800
It is what it is. 
It's if it moves the market hard

694
00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:11,720
and it's under under covered, 
then I'll take a crack at it. 

695
00:36:12,040 --> 00:36:13,440
Sure. 
You you checked in the number 

696
00:36:13,440 --> 00:36:17,480
that it at times can translate 
to 4% of the global electricity 

697
00:36:17,760 --> 00:36:20,400
output. 
Yeah, Yeah, that blew my mind. 

698
00:36:21,160 --> 00:36:23,160
But and, and this stuff can 
swing. 

699
00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:25,440
So if you think of like in a 
commodity market, if you're like

700
00:36:26,320 --> 00:36:30,000
global supply demands like 345 
percent tight, I mean that is 

701
00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:32,760
that's, that's like 2022 crisis 
grade stuff. 

702
00:36:33,520 --> 00:36:37,040
And this stuff can be up and 
down 20% year to year. 

703
00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:40,400
So it's an enormous influence 
not just on their market, but 

704
00:36:40,400 --> 00:36:43,640
globally. 
So yeah, it's worth tracking. 

705
00:36:43,840 --> 00:36:46,680
Yeah, it's it's they don't make,
they don't make your life easy. 

706
00:36:46,680 --> 00:36:49,080
Like I said, there's not like a 
nice little data API where you 

707
00:36:49,080 --> 00:36:52,000
can pull down all the dam levels
and everything that's going on 

708
00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:55,360
minute to minute like you can in
Norway or or Switzerland for 

709
00:36:55,360 --> 00:36:58,520
that matter. 
Is that just tying back into you

710
00:36:58,520 --> 00:37:02,680
said global, global energy 
demand and then heading towards 

711
00:37:02,680 --> 00:37:07,560
this future of EVs, if everyone,
if there's is a massive uptake 

712
00:37:07,560 --> 00:37:11,640
and everyone's charging EVs 
overnight, how much is that? 

713
00:37:12,360 --> 00:37:15,480
Is that negligible or massive in
terms of global power demand 

714
00:37:15,720 --> 00:37:20,720
once you're replying combustion?
Look, it depends on, there's 

715
00:37:20,720 --> 00:37:23,320
lots of different numbers. 
There's so many studies on this,

716
00:37:23,320 --> 00:37:25,160
right? 
You kind of start to get a sense

717
00:37:25,160 --> 00:37:27,120
of what the error bars are on 
the numbers. 

718
00:37:27,200 --> 00:37:34,080
If you look at moving everyone 
to EVs and then you've got, you 

719
00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:38,040
know, moving industrial 
processes to hydrogen or, or 

720
00:37:38,040 --> 00:37:40,760
heat pumps or what have you. 
Normally the bump is somewhere 

721
00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:43,240
in the order of 20 to 25% off 
the baseline. 

722
00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:46,560
So that's substantial. 
But that's something which plays

723
00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:50,000
out over, you know, to 2050 or 
one of you 0 targeted. 

724
00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:52,040
So that's, you know, you can 
kind of absorb that. 

725
00:37:52,280 --> 00:37:54,800
The data centre stuff is a bit 
spicy because people are saying 

726
00:37:55,280 --> 00:37:59,000
some investment banks anyway are
saying we're going to be 20% up 

727
00:37:59,040 --> 00:38:02,160
in six years and that's, that's 
a big deal. 

728
00:38:02,280 --> 00:38:05,040
If that's real. 
I'm becoming a little bit more 

729
00:38:05,040 --> 00:38:08,400
sceptical on how real that is. 
But that's a real thing. 

730
00:38:09,880 --> 00:38:12,240
So yeah, but the interesting 
thing is also like you've got 

731
00:38:12,240 --> 00:38:16,120
all these EVs on on and people 
can sort of time their charging 

732
00:38:16,120 --> 00:38:17,880
and then people put solar on 
their houses. 

733
00:38:17,880 --> 00:38:21,480
Then you know, how much at the 
substation that you actually 

734
00:38:21,480 --> 00:38:23,840
seen demand go up? 
And what does the shape of that 

735
00:38:23,840 --> 00:38:25,480
look like? 
And it's, and they need to say 

736
00:38:25,520 --> 00:38:28,000
this, electrical engineers spend
a lot of time modelling this 

737
00:38:28,000 --> 00:38:29,680
stuff out. 
It's kind of interesting, but 

738
00:38:29,680 --> 00:38:32,000
it's all it's an emerging 
picture as. 

739
00:38:32,680 --> 00:38:34,200
Yeah. 
So for the data centres like 

740
00:38:34,200 --> 00:38:37,400
when this big uptake of them, if
it does happen, is that going to

741
00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:41,600
replace anything in the world 
like reduce the need of anything

742
00:38:41,600 --> 00:38:45,400
or is it just going to be a pure
edition of the need for copper, 

743
00:38:45,400 --> 00:38:47,360
the need for extra power 
etcetera? 

744
00:38:49,240 --> 00:38:51,520
Well, I mean, there's obviously 
all these efficiencies you get 

745
00:38:52,040 --> 00:38:56,320
from these. 
So I mean, I use AI use like 

746
00:38:56,320 --> 00:38:58,640
Claude's pretty good. 
If you're writing code, if you, 

747
00:39:00,360 --> 00:39:03,480
you know, feeling a bit dusty 1 
morning and you're not really 

748
00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:06,800
feeling like writing some 
boilerplate stuff, you can get 

749
00:39:07,320 --> 00:39:10,200
AI to do a lot of that for you. 
Now that's kind of a big deal. 

750
00:39:10,920 --> 00:39:12,800
Does that replace anything in 
the physical world? 

751
00:39:12,800 --> 00:39:17,360
Well, TBD for example, one thing
that's kind of crazier this AI 

752
00:39:17,360 --> 00:39:21,880
stuff is that because you can 
now essentially brute force 

753
00:39:22,800 --> 00:39:27,680
modelling physical chemistry. 
So how ions move through a 

754
00:39:27,680 --> 00:39:30,960
substrate or what have you, 
people are now the search for 

755
00:39:31,000 --> 00:39:35,440
better battery cathodes is now 
increasingly happening in 

756
00:39:35,440 --> 00:39:37,800
silicon. 
And then they go from say 3 

757
00:39:37,800 --> 00:39:40,640
million options down to 70. 
And then they test those 70 on a

758
00:39:40,640 --> 00:39:42,800
wet bench. 
So I think you're going to see 

759
00:39:42,800 --> 00:39:45,320
it in terms of the speed up in 
technology in a lot of areas. 

760
00:39:46,080 --> 00:39:48,120
But I think it's going to be big
in pharmacology. 

761
00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:50,720
You've already seen that and 
also in physical chemistry for, 

762
00:39:52,000 --> 00:39:54,360
you know, battery cathodes, 
materials and that sort of 

763
00:39:54,360 --> 00:39:57,760
stuff. 
So it's it's not like you can 

764
00:39:57,760 --> 00:40:00,840
just sort of go into a couple of
line items in Excel model and 

765
00:40:00,840 --> 00:40:03,280
show where it's going to turn 
up, but it is sort of popping up

766
00:40:03,280 --> 00:40:05,360
all over the place. 
So I think, I think one of the 

767
00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:08,440
big pieces we haven't yet spoken
about that ties in is stationary

768
00:40:08,440 --> 00:40:10,320
storage. 
What, what do you kind of make 

769
00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:15,840
of the consensus growth numbers 
out there for stationary storage

770
00:40:15,840 --> 00:40:19,400
and you know how that plays into
metals demands and all these 

771
00:40:19,400 --> 00:40:22,160
sorts of things? 
I, I think it's so I think it's 

772
00:40:22,160 --> 00:40:25,320
sort of interesting. 
There's there's often a very 

773
00:40:25,320 --> 00:40:29,120
it's it's, it's tricky to model.
The reason is, is that right 

774
00:40:29,120 --> 00:40:33,360
now, given spreads you see 
intraday in say the NEM in 

775
00:40:33,360 --> 00:40:37,160
Australia, NSW or Victoria or 
something, you know, prices are,

776
00:40:37,640 --> 00:40:41,040
I could open, you've probably 
seen that open NEM website. 

777
00:40:41,040 --> 00:40:43,080
You can see prices are basically
negative for about four or five 

778
00:40:43,080 --> 00:40:45,520
hours a day. 
Now they get smashed up to like 

779
00:40:45,520 --> 00:40:49,880
300 bucks for about 90 minutes 
or two hours around dinner time.

780
00:40:49,880 --> 00:40:52,920
And then it's back down to 
something sensible for people 

781
00:40:52,920 --> 00:40:54,520
who want batteries. 
They're absolutely meant to you.

782
00:40:54,680 --> 00:40:57,640
I mean, you can do sort of back 
of the envelope stuff even 

783
00:40:57,640 --> 00:40:59,880
assuming they don't get any of 
this spending reserve or 

784
00:40:59,880 --> 00:41:04,680
frequency and ancillary services
revenue, they're they're doing 

785
00:41:04,680 --> 00:41:06,080
great. 
But the interesting thing is as 

786
00:41:06,080 --> 00:41:08,480
a lot of storage goes in those 
spreads will come down pretty 

787
00:41:08,480 --> 00:41:09,960
hard. 
So there's kind of an 

788
00:41:09,960 --> 00:41:12,920
equilibrium where you need 
enough spread to justify that 

789
00:41:12,920 --> 00:41:15,760
store stationary demand. 
I think it's very robust now, 

790
00:41:16,120 --> 00:41:18,760
but in 3-4 years where the 
spreads going to be And then if 

791
00:41:18,760 --> 00:41:21,840
you've got Snowy 2, at least in 
Australia, coming over the top 

792
00:41:21,840 --> 00:41:25,680
with a hammer in 2028, then is 
that going to slow down? 

793
00:41:25,760 --> 00:41:30,160
I think in the meantime there's 
sort of going to be a a speeding

794
00:41:30,160 --> 00:41:33,080
up and slowing down thing where 
spreads very wide now. 

795
00:41:33,080 --> 00:41:34,880
Doesn't make sense to build a 
solar farm if you're going to 

796
00:41:34,880 --> 00:41:36,080
have to sell it for negative 
power. 

797
00:41:36,080 --> 00:41:39,040
That's pretty stupid. 
But then people pile into 

798
00:41:39,040 --> 00:41:42,240
batteries, solar farm gets a 
better level, people dump in 

799
00:41:42,240 --> 00:41:45,360
more solar and there's going to 
be sort of a, a bit of a sort of

800
00:41:45,640 --> 00:41:48,200
out of sequence sort of sign and
cause waves thing going on 

801
00:41:48,200 --> 00:41:49,960
there. 
Reminds me of the avocado farms,

802
00:41:49,960 --> 00:41:52,960
'cause they remember when 
avocados were like 7 bucks and 

803
00:41:53,240 --> 00:41:56,120
the people who had farms were 
minting it and then so everyone 

804
00:41:56,120 --> 00:41:58,280
bloody planted avocado farms 
everywhere. 

805
00:41:58,280 --> 00:42:01,360
They take six years to come to 
fruit and then by then there was

806
00:42:01,520 --> 00:42:03,800
like avocado, 2 bucks 'cause 
there's so many more avocados. 

807
00:42:04,800 --> 00:42:07,000
Thought the cure for high prices
is high prices would have. 

808
00:42:07,000 --> 00:42:10,080
Been more in the Neero resource.
That's odd. 

809
00:42:10,920 --> 00:42:12,400
I think I think that's exactly 
right. 

810
00:42:12,440 --> 00:42:14,760
I mean, the difference is though
is like in solar, it takes like 

811
00:42:14,760 --> 00:42:16,960
an 18 months, two years to throw
up the farm, so long as you get 

812
00:42:16,960 --> 00:42:19,960
your permits, batteries. 
It's like some of the sometimes 

813
00:42:19,960 --> 00:42:22,920
you can put these installations 
together 6 to 12 months. 

814
00:42:23,160 --> 00:42:25,240
Yeah. 
So, so it's going to be a little

815
00:42:25,240 --> 00:42:27,800
bit more of a tighter cycle, but
I think that you're going to 

816
00:42:27,800 --> 00:42:30,160
start to see that play out a bit
and it should mean prices are 

817
00:42:30,320 --> 00:42:32,360
mostly a bit less cracked out 
going forward. 

818
00:42:32,360 --> 00:42:34,680
Well, where things get spicy and
even in the electrical 

819
00:42:34,680 --> 00:42:37,600
engineering you guys do these 
big models, there's a guy called

820
00:42:37,600 --> 00:42:39,520
Tom Brown at University of 
Berlin. 

821
00:42:39,520 --> 00:42:42,560
He does some great stuff. 
The time that's going to always 

822
00:42:42,560 --> 00:42:45,840
going to be dicey is like it's 
cold winter, not a lot of sun, 

823
00:42:45,840 --> 00:42:48,360
not a lot of wind. 
And that's when things will get 

824
00:42:48,360 --> 00:42:50,960
silly. 
So that's where you're going to 

825
00:42:50,960 --> 00:42:55,120
need electrolysis for, you know,
150 hours of a winter where 

826
00:42:55,120 --> 00:42:58,680
things are not great and the 
prices will always be nuts then.

827
00:42:58,680 --> 00:43:01,800
And then they'll be, you know, 
2530 bucks for most of the rest 

828
00:43:01,800 --> 00:43:04,400
of the time. 
Is it just a function of like of

829
00:43:04,960 --> 00:43:07,920
of like the, you know, the best 
implementation and requirement, 

830
00:43:07,920 --> 00:43:10,400
all that sort of stuff is just a
function of the penetration of 

831
00:43:10,400 --> 00:43:12,920
solar and, and, and wind in any,
in any market. 

832
00:43:14,200 --> 00:43:16,680
Yeah, I mean places like 
Australia, it's super cheap. 

833
00:43:16,720 --> 00:43:20,120
I mean, The thing is, is that I 
mean, people get very political 

834
00:43:20,120 --> 00:43:24,800
about nuclear. 
And my opinion is that if you're

835
00:43:24,800 --> 00:43:29,280
summer, which is has not much 
sun, not all, not great wind and

836
00:43:29,280 --> 00:43:32,480
it's cold said you're crazy not 
to the nuclear like it is 

837
00:43:32,480 --> 00:43:34,520
absolutely unhinged. 
Like people say no, Poland 

838
00:43:34,520 --> 00:43:36,080
shouldn't and you kill. 
I'm like, well, what are they 

839
00:43:36,080 --> 00:43:38,640
going to do? 
This is like, what are their 

840
00:43:38,640 --> 00:43:40,720
choices here? 
Whereas if you're somewhere like

841
00:43:40,720 --> 00:43:44,360
a lot of wind, a lot of sun, you
know, you can do a decent amount

842
00:43:44,360 --> 00:43:46,520
of pumped hydro, you're 
Argentina or Australia. 

843
00:43:46,520 --> 00:43:48,160
I mean, you've got plenty of 
choices. 

844
00:43:48,160 --> 00:43:51,080
You don't need to do anything 
large and complicated. 

845
00:43:51,080 --> 00:43:52,840
You can just do dumb modular 
stuff. 

846
00:43:53,720 --> 00:43:57,360
So I think it's going to be very
much how people do this energy 

847
00:43:57,360 --> 00:44:00,680
transition is going to be very 
much a depend on your local 

848
00:44:00,680 --> 00:44:04,520
endowment, physical endowment 
and that'll define what's going 

849
00:44:04,520 --> 00:44:08,760
to be the lowest cost option. 
One of the one of the your non 

850
00:44:08,760 --> 00:44:11,880
consensus kind of calls last 
year, which sort of, you know, 

851
00:44:11,920 --> 00:44:15,960
played out to be pretty, pretty 
correct was, I mean, you're 

852
00:44:15,960 --> 00:44:18,640
pretty pessimistic on the 
outlook for for met coal when 

853
00:44:18,960 --> 00:44:21,200
when consensus was pretty, 
pretty optimistic. 

854
00:44:21,200 --> 00:44:25,480
And I think you were, you were 
sort of looking at the the, the 

855
00:44:25,480 --> 00:44:29,800
displacement of, of seaborne met
coal as a result of, of lower 

856
00:44:29,800 --> 00:44:32,360
cost Mongolian coal feeding into
into China. 

857
00:44:33,880 --> 00:44:35,680
Yeah. 
Like, how did you kind of come 

858
00:44:35,680 --> 00:44:38,680
to that view and how have you 
seen it play out since? 

859
00:44:39,680 --> 00:44:46,360
Yeah, I mean, so I I did a I did
in 2016, 1716 there was like a 

860
00:44:46,360 --> 00:44:48,200
bankruptcy of a Mongolian coal 
producer. 

861
00:44:48,200 --> 00:44:50,440
So I always done a lot of Asian 
distressed that stuff. 

862
00:44:50,440 --> 00:44:55,320
So I got involved in that. 
So I got to know that company 

863
00:44:55,320 --> 00:44:56,960
recently. 
Well, what was kind of 

864
00:44:56,960 --> 00:45:01,000
interesting during COVID, China 
did a bunch of very silly things

865
00:45:01,000 --> 00:45:05,680
in the coal market, which I 
wrote about, I think it was. 

866
00:45:06,520 --> 00:45:10,320
But basically they if they shot 
their border with Mongolia, OK, 

867
00:45:10,720 --> 00:45:13,080
so you can't get Mongolian Coca 
Cola anymore because you're 

868
00:45:13,080 --> 00:45:15,120
worried the Mongolians all have 
COVID and they're going to pull 

869
00:45:15,120 --> 00:45:16,360
it. 
China, fine. 

870
00:45:16,680 --> 00:45:18,960
But then they also had a massive
fight with Australia over 

871
00:45:18,960 --> 00:45:21,280
whatever it was Scott Morrison 
ticked them off about. 

872
00:45:21,280 --> 00:45:24,520
It was COVID inquiry, which I 
think was probably a good idea. 

873
00:45:25,640 --> 00:45:28,280
So then you see, so where were 
they going to get their Metcal? 

874
00:45:28,360 --> 00:45:33,080
So you've kind of Mongolia's 
out, Australia's out. 

875
00:45:33,840 --> 00:45:37,000
At the same time, they started 
to run a very big stimulus. 

876
00:45:37,440 --> 00:45:40,800
So METCO got very silly. 
And then of course with Russia, 

877
00:45:40,800 --> 00:45:44,080
a lot of the met coal supply 
from the Donbass or exported 

878
00:45:44,080 --> 00:45:48,480
through ports near Crimea and so
forth, that just tightened the 

879
00:45:48,480 --> 00:45:50,960
market further. 
So to just say it went, it went 

880
00:45:50,960 --> 00:45:54,240
absolutely been honest and 
justifiably so and sort of so 

881
00:45:54,240 --> 00:45:59,280
we're involved in owning Alpha 
Metallurgical in the US and a 

882
00:45:59,280 --> 00:46:00,600
few others because it was just 
amazing. 

883
00:46:00,600 --> 00:46:03,560
It was just a market which I 
didn't think could get this 

884
00:46:03,560 --> 00:46:05,440
tight in any feasible state of 
the world. 

885
00:46:05,440 --> 00:46:08,840
But you just have like 1 global 
policy era after another. 

886
00:46:08,840 --> 00:46:12,360
And I think at that point that 
was got up to 600 bucks or 

887
00:46:12,360 --> 00:46:14,360
something silly. 
I think what was interesting was

888
00:46:14,360 --> 00:46:18,720
that after China kind of lost 
control of COVID, they then 

889
00:46:18,880 --> 00:46:21,400
effectively let it RIP and then 
reopen the Mongolian border. 

890
00:46:22,680 --> 00:46:25,400
And they were also trying to get
more Mongolian output even 

891
00:46:25,400 --> 00:46:27,840
before they kind of towel 
chopped on on COVID. 

892
00:46:27,840 --> 00:46:30,880
And then of course, you had this
supply shock of, you know, 

893
00:46:30,920 --> 00:46:34,320
something like 50 million tonnes
of net hitting the market, not 

894
00:46:34,320 --> 00:46:36,080
hitting the global market. 
And you couldn't see it in the 

895
00:46:36,080 --> 00:46:38,280
shipping data because it was all
right, you know, done moved 

896
00:46:38,280 --> 00:46:40,680
across by trucks and rail, but 
the market started to weaken. 

897
00:46:41,200 --> 00:46:44,240
And yeah, Mongolia just keeps on
producing more because their 

898
00:46:44,240 --> 00:46:47,200
cash costs are like 75 bucks to 
look into the Chinese border. 

899
00:46:47,760 --> 00:46:49,400
So not a lot to slow them down 
there. 

900
00:46:49,800 --> 00:46:53,080
So you shared some comments in 
in a sub stack piece that you 

901
00:46:53,080 --> 00:46:56,200
wrote at the time as well. 
And the, the gist of it is you 

902
00:46:56,200 --> 00:47:00,200
were falling into question the 
yes, the, the pay, the bonus 

903
00:47:00,200 --> 00:47:03,040
structure and everything of the,
the Aussie producers, given that

904
00:47:03,040 --> 00:47:06,800
they weren't able to massively 
capitalise or at least expand 

905
00:47:06,800 --> 00:47:10,200
production in a significantly 
tight market where process was 

906
00:47:10,200 --> 00:47:11,960
super elevated. 
What was it, you know, 

907
00:47:12,000 --> 00:47:15,360
reflecting back on a year later,
do you have views on how the, 

908
00:47:15,640 --> 00:47:17,880
you know, RAM is structured for 
these guys and the the 

909
00:47:17,880 --> 00:47:19,840
performance that the Aussie 
players had at the. 

910
00:47:19,840 --> 00:47:24,040
Time I I think I think it's it 
was kind of weird because that 

911
00:47:24,040 --> 00:47:26,320
was about as good amount as you 
could ever hoped for right. 

912
00:47:26,320 --> 00:47:29,440
I mean, the Russians have 
basically taken Outback, got any

913
00:47:29,440 --> 00:47:31,040
dumbass supply from Ukraine is 
gone. 

914
00:47:31,040 --> 00:47:33,400
Like you should be able to ramp 
your output. 

915
00:47:33,400 --> 00:47:36,960
But it was interesting that they
couldn't get their output up. 

916
00:47:37,040 --> 00:47:41,320
And I met with White Haven, with
a couple of other guys in 

917
00:47:41,400 --> 00:47:45,080
Singapore, and I wasn't sort of 
satisfied with the answer they 

918
00:47:45,080 --> 00:47:47,120
have why they couldn't get up. 
And some was definitely due to a

919
00:47:47,120 --> 00:47:49,360
tight labour market. 
And I think that's that was fair

920
00:47:49,360 --> 00:47:52,880
enough. 
But yeah, underperformance was 

921
00:47:53,520 --> 00:47:57,680
quite surprising. 
And it's, you know, a lot of 

922
00:47:57,680 --> 00:48:00,040
these mining management teams, 
like, look at this, we're making

923
00:48:00,040 --> 00:48:01,720
record EBITDA. 
I'm like, yeah, but you can't 

924
00:48:01,720 --> 00:48:04,240
even lift volumes into like a 
$600.00 met market. 

925
00:48:05,160 --> 00:48:09,600
What's up with that? 
So that was a bit strange. 

926
00:48:10,400 --> 00:48:14,120
I didn't love. 
I thought they were doing 

927
00:48:14,120 --> 00:48:15,680
victory laps they hadn't really 
earned. 

928
00:48:15,720 --> 00:48:19,120
Unless they could take credit 
for shutting the Chinese border 

929
00:48:19,120 --> 00:48:22,640
with Mongolia or kicking off the
Ukraine war, they didn't really 

930
00:48:22,640 --> 00:48:25,120
have a hand in it. 
How much of that do you kind of 

931
00:48:25,120 --> 00:48:29,000
view US mines having a a natural
sort of run rate? 

932
00:48:29,000 --> 00:48:31,800
Obviously, like you said, there 
are a lot of yeah issues within,

933
00:48:31,800 --> 00:48:34,440
within Australia, labour being 
one of them, energy price, all 

934
00:48:34,440 --> 00:48:36,480
these sorts of things. 
Weather events happened. 

935
00:48:37,000 --> 00:48:39,960
But a lot of mines tend to kind 
of have a, a natural run rate. 

936
00:48:39,960 --> 00:48:42,160
And I say this from someone 
who's never really worked on a 

937
00:48:42,160 --> 00:48:47,120
mine, but it's from the outside 
seems very hard, you know, to 

938
00:48:47,200 --> 00:48:49,880
ramp up production even when 
prices are very high as much as 

939
00:48:49,880 --> 00:48:52,400
you'd kind of want to. 
Do you have any learnings on 

940
00:48:52,400 --> 00:48:54,240
that kind of? 
Front, Yeah, yeah, we looked at 

941
00:48:54,240 --> 00:48:56,560
it, on it, we went through a 
couple of the mines in Australia

942
00:48:56,560 --> 00:48:59,360
and like, of course there's like
a constraint so there's some of 

943
00:48:59,360 --> 00:49:01,040
it's just yellow goods on site 
or labour. 

944
00:49:01,040 --> 00:49:03,760
So how you know how much you 
can, you know your long wall 

945
00:49:03,760 --> 00:49:05,880
only has certain capacity and a 
lot. 

946
00:49:05,880 --> 00:49:07,960
But often with these plants, 
it's like there's a constraint 

947
00:49:07,960 --> 00:49:09,920
at the wash plant. 
And what we found was there 

948
00:49:09,920 --> 00:49:12,040
wasn't like an obvious 
constraint at the wash plant for

949
00:49:12,040 --> 00:49:14,520
a lot of these installations. 
They just couldn't get up there,

950
00:49:15,080 --> 00:49:17,240
their earth movements a lot. 
Now that might have just been 

951
00:49:17,240 --> 00:49:19,400
entirely driven by labour. 
That was definitely one bit of 

952
00:49:19,400 --> 00:49:21,960
feedback we got. 
I reckon that that rang pretty 

953
00:49:21,960 --> 00:49:24,160
true. 
But I was surprised how little 

954
00:49:24,160 --> 00:49:27,160
flex there was in the system, 
despite the fact when you look 

955
00:49:27,160 --> 00:49:31,560
at what the headroom is at a 
system level at a mine, it 

956
00:49:31,560 --> 00:49:33,480
seemed to have some capacity to 
move. 

957
00:49:33,480 --> 00:49:39,320
So that was a bit of a surprise.
So yeah, it was it's it's a 

958
00:49:39,320 --> 00:49:41,680
mystery. 
I I hope someone gets a 

959
00:49:41,680 --> 00:49:44,720
comprehensive answer at some 
point, But I was shocked at how 

960
00:49:45,480 --> 00:49:49,240
non elastic the sort of supply 
curve was in the space of a 

961
00:49:49,280 --> 00:49:52,960
pretty crazy price fight. 
I think, I think on your point, 

962
00:49:52,960 --> 00:49:56,160
JD, I think the natural run rate
of mines is also it's very 

963
00:49:56,160 --> 00:50:02,240
capital sensitive like your 
Kathleen Valley for instance, 

964
00:50:02,240 --> 00:50:06,240
that could that could do 
6,000,000 tonne if they put an 

965
00:50:06,240 --> 00:50:09,760
underground crusher in and a 
conveyor and and everything like

966
00:50:09,760 --> 00:50:11,760
that. 
So like I think probably your 

967
00:50:11,760 --> 00:50:14,160
narrow vine golds and that 
they're very, they've got a 

968
00:50:14,160 --> 00:50:16,800
natural run, right. 
But I think these big like your 

969
00:50:16,800 --> 00:50:20,040
big copper and lithium projects 
depending on the capital. 

970
00:50:20,040 --> 00:50:22,520
It's capital and time, right? 
Because you would have easily 

971
00:50:22,520 --> 00:50:25,960
been able to raise money or debt
if the the met coal price is 600

972
00:50:25,960 --> 00:50:27,240
bucks. 
But obviously it takes time to 

973
00:50:27,760 --> 00:50:29,480
get everything humming and stuff
so. 

974
00:50:30,080 --> 00:50:32,240
Yeah, I I was, I think that's a 
good point. 

975
00:50:32,240 --> 00:50:35,480
Like all the like the like more 
base metals like copper, gold, 

976
00:50:35,480 --> 00:50:37,680
that's like a very capital 
intensive and also just more 

977
00:50:37,680 --> 00:50:40,000
energy intensive. 
I think Amo had something where 

978
00:50:40,000 --> 00:50:43,120
they looked at like electrifying
mines and it's quite clear like 

979
00:50:43,120 --> 00:50:45,200
a gold project just uses way 
more power. 

980
00:50:45,520 --> 00:50:49,160
But for bulks and like more 
earth movement driven stuff, it 

981
00:50:49,280 --> 00:50:51,600
theoretically should be simpler 
so long as you you've got 

982
00:50:51,680 --> 00:50:53,120
capacity in your wash plan or 
whatever. 

983
00:50:53,120 --> 00:50:55,480
But yeah, that just, it just 
didn't ramp, which was 

984
00:50:55,480 --> 00:50:58,560
interesting. 
I never quite could get a clear 

985
00:50:58,560 --> 00:51:00,840
answer on why literally no one 
could get their numbers up. 

986
00:51:01,200 --> 00:51:04,120
Well, that's, that's the 
underground like natural mining,

987
00:51:04,120 --> 00:51:06,000
right? 
I'm probably talking about open,

988
00:51:06,040 --> 00:51:12,080
open pits, probably a bit 
different in terms of MMS 

989
00:51:12,080 --> 00:51:14,760
dictate the mining, right? 
Yeah, the natural, the natural 

990
00:51:14,760 --> 00:51:18,600
mining right when you're in an 
MMSJV is like, they'll tell you 

991
00:51:19,560 --> 00:51:22,280
what they're mining and then 
they're like, we need more. 

992
00:51:22,280 --> 00:51:25,120
They're like, okay, we'll get 
it, Yeah. 

993
00:51:25,200 --> 00:51:27,240
It really depends who the 
contractor is and if you've got 

994
00:51:27,240 --> 00:51:30,200
MMS around and the commodity 
price is flying and you want 

995
00:51:30,200 --> 00:51:33,880
more coming out the ground, so. 
It'll be a better IR and MPV and

996
00:51:34,160 --> 00:51:36,560
the heck mate, the numbers will 
be better than yours as well. 

997
00:51:36,560 --> 00:51:38,000
Yeah. 
Well, it's like the maximum 

998
00:51:38,000 --> 00:51:43,720
possible mining, right? 
Plus 50% is what MMS mining 

999
00:51:43,720 --> 00:51:45,640
supply. 
Yes, exactly. 

1000
00:51:45,640 --> 00:51:48,040
Yeah. 
And they take the risk off your 

1001
00:51:48,040 --> 00:51:50,320
hands, you know? 
So most risk free. 

1002
00:51:50,320 --> 00:51:55,000
So where's that you're saying? 
JD no risk, maximum mining rate 

1003
00:51:55,000 --> 00:51:58,840
plus 50% if you'll want it. 
Because they'll just do it and 

1004
00:51:59,480 --> 00:52:01,400
it's pretty much free. 
It's a classic. 

1005
00:52:01,400 --> 00:52:04,880
Win, win, win, Matthew. 
It is a win win win. 

1006
00:52:04,880 --> 00:52:10,800
www.miningservices Go MMS, go 
MMS, go do a you know people 

1007
00:52:10,800 --> 00:52:13,520
that are doing a JV with MMS 
Anyone. 

1008
00:52:13,520 --> 00:52:16,040
They're happy, minimum 8 hours 
sleep at night. 

1009
00:52:16,640 --> 00:52:20,200
They have no worries at all. 
They just zonked. 

1010
00:52:21,320 --> 00:52:22,800
You want good sleep? 
You want to look after your 

1011
00:52:22,800 --> 00:52:24,320
health? 
Get an MMS JV. 

1012
00:52:24,360 --> 00:52:27,160
Pick up the phone. 
So, so looking forward in the in

1013
00:52:27,160 --> 00:52:30,680
the met coal market, every 
single producer that I looked at

1014
00:52:30,680 --> 00:52:35,640
that the annual report of August
was super bullish India in, you 

1015
00:52:35,640 --> 00:52:39,000
know, the next decade, the next 
two decades and add to 2050. 

1016
00:52:39,320 --> 00:52:41,880
Given given the you know, decade
you've been looking at the Met 

1017
00:52:41,880 --> 00:52:44,560
coal market, what do you kind of
make of this this emergence? 

1018
00:52:44,560 --> 00:52:47,560
Are they kind of looking for 
someone to piece in the model to

1019
00:52:47,560 --> 00:52:50,760
show the growth to investors or 
do you think this is legitimate?

1020
00:52:52,240 --> 00:52:54,760
I think it's, look, I mean that 
there's going to be more steel 

1021
00:52:54,760 --> 00:52:56,040
demand, right? 
I don't think it's ever going to

1022
00:52:56,040 --> 00:52:59,400
be anything like China in terms 
of per capita or what have you, 

1023
00:52:59,400 --> 00:53:03,200
but the number's going to go up.
I mean, I'm not, I'm not some 

1024
00:53:03,200 --> 00:53:06,160
insane person. 
However, the interesting thing 

1025
00:53:06,160 --> 00:53:11,000
when I look at India's options, 
India has a lot of thermal Co. 

1026
00:53:11,120 --> 00:53:14,320
So they don't think they're, you
know, to the extent they can 

1027
00:53:14,320 --> 00:53:17,120
sort out their internal 
constraints, whether it be rail 

1028
00:53:17,120 --> 00:53:20,160
or, you know, funky political 
stuff in the Eastern states, 

1029
00:53:21,400 --> 00:53:23,880
they can they can produce as 
much coal as they probably need.

1030
00:53:24,200 --> 00:53:27,680
What's going to be interesting 
on the met coal side is these 

1031
00:53:27,680 --> 00:53:30,000
are all going to be quite new 
steel plants. 

1032
00:53:30,280 --> 00:53:33,880
So China's essentially made its 
choices in terms of its mix of 

1033
00:53:33,880 --> 00:53:37,040
blast furnace versus EAF and 
their demand probably drops over

1034
00:53:37,040 --> 00:53:38,800
time. 
And but they're going to they're

1035
00:53:38,960 --> 00:53:40,880
going to have the same mix of 
plants, I think. 

1036
00:53:41,320 --> 00:53:46,200
But India, the interesting thing
is, is that you can now get do 

1037
00:53:46,200 --> 00:53:48,920
direct reduction plants. 
There's a Italian company called

1038
00:53:48,920 --> 00:53:50,960
Danieli which makes steel plant 
equipment. 

1039
00:53:51,560 --> 00:53:54,720
And you can now take that 
natural gas crack into the, you 

1040
00:53:54,720 --> 00:53:57,960
know, carbon dioxide and 
hydrogen and then use the 

1041
00:53:57,960 --> 00:54:00,080
hydrogen as a direct reduction 
mechanism. 

1042
00:54:00,800 --> 00:54:04,440
And the pitch Danieli is well, 
you know, you can use natural 

1043
00:54:04,440 --> 00:54:06,760
gas today, you don't need that 
coal to reduce this iron. 

1044
00:54:07,160 --> 00:54:10,280
And then in the future you can 
use green hydrogen. 

1045
00:54:10,400 --> 00:54:14,200
So if you're a steel company and
you want to keep your ESG 

1046
00:54:14,200 --> 00:54:16,440
ratings in a good place, you can
say, well, I'm going to build a 

1047
00:54:16,440 --> 00:54:18,680
plant which gives me the option 
to switch to something great at 

1048
00:54:18,680 --> 00:54:22,400
some point in the future. 
So the composition, I think what

1049
00:54:22,400 --> 00:54:25,800
people need to look to is what 
is the composition of new steel 

1050
00:54:25,800 --> 00:54:28,400
plants being built in India? 
Because if they move towards 

1051
00:54:28,840 --> 00:54:33,240
more electric arc furnace where 
they can take, say twiggies 

1052
00:54:33,240 --> 00:54:37,080
directly, reduced iron pellets 
from the Pilbara and then just 

1053
00:54:37,080 --> 00:54:40,800
tip it in or they go for 
something where they can take 

1054
00:54:40,800 --> 00:54:43,800
net gas, crack it and then do 
the reduction themselves on 

1055
00:54:43,800 --> 00:54:46,360
side, that's pretty bearish, 
METCO, right? 

1056
00:54:46,360 --> 00:54:48,240
Then that growth story is not 
going to play out. 

1057
00:54:48,640 --> 00:54:51,120
So that's another thing we're 
spending a bit of time on, 

1058
00:54:51,120 --> 00:54:54,280
looking at what the future plant
mix is going to be in India 

1059
00:54:54,280 --> 00:54:57,920
because that will define how 
METCO intensive that steel 

1060
00:54:57,920 --> 00:55:01,200
demand growth is. 
What what do you make of FMG? 

1061
00:55:01,200 --> 00:55:04,080
As you mentioned their, their 
ambitions, they've been, you 

1062
00:55:04,080 --> 00:55:07,800
know, pretty steadfast in 
wanting to be real, real zero, I

1063
00:55:07,800 --> 00:55:11,560
think is the terminology they 
use now by by 20-30 if you spend

1064
00:55:11,560 --> 00:55:16,200
time looking at that. 
Yeah, I mean the the various 

1065
00:55:16,200 --> 00:55:19,200
pathways, there's actually a big
a new project which I played a 

1066
00:55:19,200 --> 00:55:22,760
minor role in looking at all 
these pathways to reduce carbon 

1067
00:55:22,760 --> 00:55:26,160
and steel and that paper should 
be out in about four months. 

1068
00:55:26,160 --> 00:55:31,440
I think it's been an absolute 
bear of a modelling exercise. 

1069
00:55:32,800 --> 00:55:35,720
I think it. 
Yeah, it's been been quite a 

1070
00:55:35,720 --> 00:55:39,080
journey modelling all these 
various pathways to how you how 

1071
00:55:39,120 --> 00:55:42,000
you can decarbonize stuff. 
So do you do, do you just run, 

1072
00:55:42,000 --> 00:55:44,000
do you just run met coal and do 
carbon capture? 

1073
00:55:44,080 --> 00:55:46,440
That's an option. 
Do you do this stuff where you 

1074
00:55:46,440 --> 00:55:49,920
take very finely ground? 
I'm fine. 

1075
00:55:49,920 --> 00:55:53,120
Stick it in a sodium hydroxide 
bath at 100 C, run an 

1076
00:55:53,120 --> 00:55:55,680
electrolytic cell through it and
then scrape off the eye. 

1077
00:55:55,680 --> 00:55:57,720
That's another option. 
There's a hydrogen thing. 

1078
00:55:57,720 --> 00:55:59,800
Everyone knows about that. 
So there's a lot of ways up the 

1079
00:55:59,800 --> 00:56:02,200
mountain and just working out 
what the mix is going to be. 

1080
00:56:04,240 --> 00:56:07,120
I think Fortescue's got a number
of bets. 

1081
00:56:07,120 --> 00:56:10,240
They've got electrolytic cell 
thing they're working on. 

1082
00:56:10,920 --> 00:56:13,000
They've obviously got this 
hydrogen thing which is now 

1083
00:56:13,000 --> 00:56:15,320
going to be stopped, they said 
next year at Christmas Creek. 

1084
00:56:15,760 --> 00:56:18,160
So we're going to see. 
But they're plenty serious and 

1085
00:56:18,400 --> 00:56:23,400
they're putting the money down. 
I think it's I think part of the

1086
00:56:23,400 --> 00:56:27,240
problem is being, is that they 
have talked a very big game up 

1087
00:56:27,240 --> 00:56:29,960
to this point and it's very hard
for customers to understand 

1088
00:56:29,960 --> 00:56:31,960
what's real and what's not. 
But I think people are going to 

1089
00:56:31,960 --> 00:56:34,840
start taking delivery of 
material and at that point it's 

1090
00:56:34,840 --> 00:56:36,200
going to be pretty real next 
year. 

1091
00:56:36,680 --> 00:56:38,600
I mean, this is the same when 
for the ski started. 

1092
00:56:38,800 --> 00:56:43,840
They were a high yield borrower 
when I started in in finance and

1093
00:56:44,080 --> 00:56:46,000
no one was ever sure whether 
Triggy was real. 

1094
00:56:46,000 --> 00:56:47,240
And lots of people were very 
sceptical. 

1095
00:56:47,240 --> 00:56:50,800
But Triggy's shown himself to be
a bit of a talker, but he's also

1096
00:56:50,800 --> 00:56:53,280
a deliberate. 
So I think that's you got to 

1097
00:56:53,280 --> 00:56:54,880
kind of get him further than 
that point. 

1098
00:56:56,240 --> 00:56:59,320
I suppose the, the, the last 
kind of area I want to explore 

1099
00:56:59,320 --> 00:57:01,640
is one that I haven't seen you 
write about yet, but he's, you 

1100
00:57:01,640 --> 00:57:05,360
know, incredibly topical. 
And that's the current state of 

1101
00:57:05,360 --> 00:57:09,960
the iron ore market and being, 
you know, being kind of having a

1102
00:57:10,560 --> 00:57:12,880
decent China lens. 
Alex, I imagine you've been 

1103
00:57:12,880 --> 00:57:15,440
thinking about this a bit too. 
Yeah. 

1104
00:57:15,440 --> 00:57:17,640
I mean, it's a, it's a lot like 
sort of the question is a lot 

1105
00:57:17,640 --> 00:57:21,480
like when China had a big real 
estate sort of slow down 201415 

1106
00:57:22,040 --> 00:57:26,160
and we briefly touched what was 
the low print like $34 on spot 

1107
00:57:26,160 --> 00:57:28,280
or something like that. 
It was that was pretty 

1108
00:57:28,280 --> 00:57:33,240
terrifying. 
I think the scary thing now, OK,

1109
00:57:33,240 --> 00:57:37,360
so basically China is about a 
5050 split between imports of 

1110
00:57:37,360 --> 00:57:41,680
iron and domestic production. 
And the domestic stuff is by all

1111
00:57:41,680 --> 00:57:44,120
accounts kind of rubbish. 
It's got high phosphorus, it's 

1112
00:57:44,520 --> 00:57:47,600
in a lot of places, it's, you 
know, blended average cost is 

1113
00:57:47,600 --> 00:57:50,400
maybe 7080 bucks a tonne. 
But as we have seen with 

1114
00:57:50,400 --> 00:57:53,000
lithium, China will keep stuff 
running at a loss for their 

1115
00:57:53,080 --> 00:57:55,200
national security or self 
sufficiency reasons. 

1116
00:57:55,680 --> 00:58:03,080
So the real horror show node is 
for next year is no one really 

1117
00:58:03,080 --> 00:58:04,560
taps the brakes in the pill, 
bro. 

1118
00:58:05,960 --> 00:58:10,240
China keeps running their 
production at a big loss and 

1119
00:58:10,240 --> 00:58:12,000
then you've got some undo coming
over the top. 

1120
00:58:12,000 --> 00:58:14,280
Depending on when you think 
that's going to happen or how 

1121
00:58:14,280 --> 00:58:17,760
much, how much that will happen,
that could get very scary 

1122
00:58:17,760 --> 00:58:22,240
indeed. 
And the issue is, is that what's

1123
00:58:22,240 --> 00:58:25,800
China's flaw in terms of how 
much demand is going to recede? 

1124
00:58:25,840 --> 00:58:28,480
And it's pretty clear that's 
going to recede a fair bit. 

1125
00:58:29,000 --> 00:58:31,880
But then also, at what point are
they going to gradually start to

1126
00:58:31,880 --> 00:58:33,560
turn off their domestic 
production, which is not 

1127
00:58:33,560 --> 00:58:37,240
competitive? 
And I don't know, but there are 

1128
00:58:37,240 --> 00:58:38,840
a lot of people who thought the 
pedal light would have been 

1129
00:58:38,840 --> 00:58:40,720
turned off by now. 
It's still running. 

1130
00:58:42,600 --> 00:58:46,640
Yes, apparently not everyone. 
Well, you can get, you can get, 

1131
00:58:46,720 --> 00:58:49,120
we can get satellite products. 
And there's still what what is? 

1132
00:58:49,120 --> 00:58:50,400
Yeah. 
Give us a bit of insight on 

1133
00:58:50,440 --> 00:58:53,560
that. 
So it's funny, like I, I, I, I 

1134
00:58:53,760 --> 00:58:58,960
sort of, I, I speak and read and
write Mandarin. 

1135
00:58:58,960 --> 00:59:02,520
So I sort of tried to check in 
on, well, you know, like in 

1136
00:59:02,520 --> 00:59:06,640
these mining towns in Jiangxi, 
what people are like each and 

1137
00:59:06,640 --> 00:59:08,320
what they've got all these 
people of petal light mines and 

1138
00:59:08,320 --> 00:59:10,240
they're kind of horrible because
the grade's terrible. 

1139
00:59:10,240 --> 00:59:12,800
They produce all this, you know,
mine waste. 

1140
00:59:12,800 --> 00:59:15,320
And previously a lot of that 
mine waste was just basically 

1141
00:59:15,320 --> 00:59:18,600
gypsum. 
So I went into fiberboard for 

1142
00:59:18,600 --> 00:59:21,880
construction and that was fine. 
And now of course, the real 

1143
00:59:21,880 --> 00:59:26,040
estate markets toast. 
So there's clearly big waste 

1144
00:59:26,040 --> 00:59:28,680
piles around the place and some 
of the locals are expressing 

1145
00:59:29,040 --> 00:59:31,760
firm opinions locally, but 
they're still running these 

1146
00:59:31,760 --> 00:59:33,920
plants. 
And they're by all accounts, I 

1147
00:59:33,920 --> 00:59:38,240
mean, they say their costs are 
in the high, you know, on 

1148
00:59:38,240 --> 00:59:40,440
carbonate equivalent, like 
eighty, $19,000. 

1149
00:59:40,440 --> 00:59:44,240
I think that's an underestimate.
But you know, obviously people 

1150
00:59:44,240 --> 00:59:45,600
have different, different 
opinions. 

1151
00:59:45,600 --> 00:59:49,040
But by all accounts, they are 
losing like -30% gross margins. 

1152
00:59:49,440 --> 00:59:51,320
Like that's the full case on 
these guys right now. 

1153
00:59:52,680 --> 00:59:55,040
Is that the full and this is 
fully integrated cost? 

1154
00:59:55,600 --> 00:59:57,400
No, this is cash. 
I'm the integrator. 

1155
00:59:58,120 --> 01:00:00,600
I don't know 25. 
So I mean, these guys are just 

1156
01:00:00,600 --> 01:00:03,960
losing money hand over fixed. 
And if they if they like that's 

1157
01:00:04,360 --> 01:00:06,920
that's one of the numbers I 
really watch and lithium is that

1158
01:00:07,320 --> 01:00:10,320
if they start to turn off that 
supply, then the market will 

1159
01:00:10,320 --> 01:00:13,000
normalise pretty quickly. 
But to the extent that China 

1160
01:00:13,080 --> 01:00:16,200
wants to dump and wants to 
produce stuff at a massive loss 

1161
01:00:16,200 --> 01:00:19,240
for other reasons, you know, 
security or whatever the 

1162
01:00:19,240 --> 01:00:22,880
internal narrative is, it's very
hard for that market to behave 

1163
01:00:22,880 --> 01:00:25,280
itself normally. 
So also some headlines that in 

1164
01:00:25,280 --> 01:00:29,520
in Zijin's latest reporting, you
could kind of infer that that 

1165
01:00:29,520 --> 01:00:32,800
they, you know, throttled some 
some some lipidilite production.

1166
01:00:33,720 --> 01:00:36,240
There's some, but there's still 
a lot running and the amount 

1167
01:00:36,240 --> 01:00:38,280
that they threw on last year was
crazy. 

1168
01:00:38,280 --> 01:00:40,720
Yeah, I was. 
I was at Fast Markets in May 

1169
01:00:40,720 --> 01:00:46,760
last year and a guy from one of 
the domestic producers in China,

1170
01:00:46,760 --> 01:00:50,560
this is when Spider Man 
carbonate was still like 35 

1171
01:00:50,560 --> 01:00:53,800
grand or something on the basis 
of we're going to crush this. 

1172
01:00:53,960 --> 01:00:55,800
You know, we get where our costs
are like high teens. 

1173
01:00:55,800 --> 01:00:57,320
I was like, OK, so we're going 
to high teens. 

1174
01:00:57,360 --> 01:00:58,640
It's good shorting down to 
there. 

1175
01:00:58,960 --> 01:01:00,440
But then they haven't turned 
anything off. 

1176
01:01:00,440 --> 01:01:03,400
So it's just it's just kept on 
getting getting smoked. 

1177
01:01:03,560 --> 01:01:06,080
So we'll see. 
I think we're kind of waiting to

1178
01:01:06,080 --> 01:01:08,800
see what what they do because 
that would be the that would be 

1179
01:01:09,200 --> 01:01:12,240
in a normal market where 
companies try to make money. 

1180
01:01:12,960 --> 01:01:14,440
That would be how things would 
normal. 

1181
01:01:14,800 --> 01:01:17,080
But China is not just about 
making money. 

1182
01:01:17,240 --> 01:01:19,640
In fact, it's something that's 
very not about making money. 

1183
01:01:20,400 --> 01:01:21,800
They're done. 
Well, If you kept that short 

1184
01:01:21,800 --> 01:01:23,600
position open, that'd have been 
pretty fruitful. 

1185
01:01:24,160 --> 01:01:24,520
What? 
What? 

1186
01:01:24,520 --> 01:01:25,200
What do you kind of. 
Yeah. 

1187
01:01:26,120 --> 01:01:27,760
Yeah, it's been, it's been OK. 
But then the problem is 

1188
01:01:27,760 --> 01:01:29,560
everything gets kicked out of 
the index and you can't get the 

1189
01:01:29,560 --> 01:01:30,920
stock borrow and you know it's 
like. 

1190
01:01:34,080 --> 01:01:38,120
That could be worse problems. 
What do you think of Chinese 

1191
01:01:38,480 --> 01:01:40,440
government stimulus more more 
broadly? 

1192
01:01:40,440 --> 01:01:41,640
There's been a lot made of it. 
Obviously. 

1193
01:01:41,640 --> 01:01:45,160
You mentioned that the property 
market in a real, you know, 

1194
01:01:45,920 --> 01:01:48,680
point of pain. 
Do you think there's more 

1195
01:01:48,680 --> 01:01:51,680
stimulus to come through or do 
you think that's kind of run its

1196
01:01:51,680 --> 01:01:55,040
course and the, the property 
sector and the, the portion of, 

1197
01:01:55,040 --> 01:01:58,200
you know, economic output that 
makes up of China is going to 

1198
01:01:58,720 --> 01:02:03,160
normalise over time? 
I, I think what they're trying 

1199
01:02:03,160 --> 01:02:05,920
to do now is they're basically 
stopped property because it was,

1200
01:02:05,960 --> 01:02:07,520
it was very crazy for a long 
time. 

1201
01:02:07,600 --> 01:02:11,080
There were, you know, very the 
guys, Hugh Andrews sort of 

1202
01:02:11,080 --> 01:02:14,400
called this out before he went 
really went literally very 

1203
01:02:14,400 --> 01:02:16,840
tropo. 
It was clearly a little bit nuts

1204
01:02:17,000 --> 01:02:17,960
even a decade ago. 
He's. 

1205
01:02:18,680 --> 01:02:20,640
Pretty good he's. 
Great. 

1206
01:02:20,640 --> 01:02:24,680
I think he's he's I love that 
guy, but you know, he went there

1207
01:02:24,680 --> 01:02:26,000
and he was like, this is 
bananas. 

1208
01:02:26,000 --> 01:02:29,880
And it was right. 
And eventually they decided to 

1209
01:02:29,880 --> 01:02:31,320
stop that. 
So what they're doing now is 

1210
01:02:31,320 --> 01:02:36,520
they're trying to export their 
way out of this malaise through 

1211
01:02:36,520 --> 01:02:39,880
EVs, through solar, through 
batteries. 

1212
01:02:40,120 --> 01:02:43,920
But now it seems like they're 
you know that even that all that

1213
01:02:43,920 --> 01:02:45,520
output is struggling to get 
absorbed now. 

1214
01:02:47,440 --> 01:02:50,280
So yeah. 
So I'm not sure what's what's 

1215
01:02:50,280 --> 01:02:52,800
really next for them. 
The usual answer is in most 

1216
01:02:52,800 --> 01:02:57,000
countries is you actually try to
not have all these stead in 

1217
01:02:57,000 --> 01:03:00,000
enterprises for all this cash 
and you just distribute 

1218
01:03:00,000 --> 01:03:02,040
dividends to effectively people 
in them, which is the 

1219
01:03:02,040 --> 01:03:04,400
government. 
And then the government can, you

1220
01:03:04,400 --> 01:03:09,080
know, encourage a more stimulus 
for locals, but but that's not 

1221
01:03:09,080 --> 01:03:11,760
happening. 
So I think they're kind of 

1222
01:03:11,760 --> 01:03:13,400
running out of Rd. 
I'm not sure what their next 

1223
01:03:13,400 --> 01:03:17,240
category categories are. 
They're going to try to take 

1224
01:03:17,240 --> 01:03:19,560
some crazy global sharing as 
quickly as they can. 

1225
01:03:20,320 --> 01:03:22,600
And obviously there's real 
pushback now on trade with 

1226
01:03:22,600 --> 01:03:25,000
these. 
The Europeans are getting very 

1227
01:03:25,320 --> 01:03:28,320
pointed. 
The Americans have slammed the 

1228
01:03:28,320 --> 01:03:31,240
door shut. 
So ultimately, how many EVs and 

1229
01:03:31,240 --> 01:03:35,120
solar panels can you dump into 
places like Pakistan and Nepal? 

1230
01:03:35,120 --> 01:03:36,520
It's a good number, but it's 
not. 

1231
01:03:36,760 --> 01:03:39,520
It's not even AUS state in terms
of demand terms. 

1232
01:03:40,840 --> 01:03:44,800
I was reading somewhere that 
Chinese policy setters haven't 

1233
01:03:44,800 --> 01:03:47,840
have a better appreciation than 
than the ones in the West in 

1234
01:03:47,840 --> 01:03:50,760
relation to kind of moral hazard
and fragility in the, you know, 

1235
01:03:50,920 --> 01:03:53,720
the financial system, etcetera. 
And and maybe, you know, maybe 

1236
01:03:53,720 --> 01:03:58,240
maybe there's a some of the, you
know, some of the stimulatory or

1237
01:03:58,240 --> 01:04:01,680
lack thereof kind of stuff to 
come from now we'll have that in

1238
01:04:01,680 --> 01:04:04,000
mind. 
Is that a valid perspective do 

1239
01:04:04,000 --> 01:04:08,160
you think or is it? 
I, I think it's, I think there 

1240
01:04:08,160 --> 01:04:14,160
are some people who sort of have
this, let's try to turn this 

1241
01:04:14,160 --> 01:04:15,880
into sort of more of a moral 
exercise. 

1242
01:04:16,200 --> 01:04:19,480
The ultimate point is China is 
able to not go into a massive 

1243
01:04:19,480 --> 01:04:26,000
recession right now because they
are able to export a lot and 

1244
01:04:26,000 --> 01:04:29,680
absorb demand elsewhere. 
So also someone's going to buy 

1245
01:04:29,680 --> 01:04:33,200
all this stuff. 
And the issue is that a people 

1246
01:04:33,200 --> 01:04:36,960
in Europe or the US in 
particular, take the view that 

1247
01:04:36,960 --> 01:04:40,000
they don't want the auto sector 
to be annihilated by Chinese 

1248
01:04:40,000 --> 01:04:44,240
exports, then what's China going
to do then, right? 

1249
01:04:44,240 --> 01:04:47,480
This is this whole thing works 
so long as they can export 

1250
01:04:47,640 --> 01:04:50,120
unimpeded. 
And as in the case, and lithium 

1251
01:04:50,120 --> 01:04:52,800
can export, you know, basically 
run losses. 

1252
01:04:52,800 --> 01:04:55,240
The banking system just 
underwrites the losses of the 

1253
01:04:55,240 --> 01:04:57,440
pedal like guys, so they can 
export. 

1254
01:04:58,080 --> 01:05:00,600
And that's that's essentially 
like, do you want to give people

1255
01:05:01,920 --> 01:05:04,600
a stimulus so they can monitor 
working services or do anything 

1256
01:05:04,600 --> 01:05:06,240
else? 
What do you want to underwrite 

1257
01:05:06,240 --> 01:05:09,480
losses at a corporations that 
keep people employed with? 

1258
01:05:09,880 --> 01:05:12,640
The whole endpoint is kind of 
like maintaining jobs, but it's 

1259
01:05:12,640 --> 01:05:15,680
just this very elaborate way 
which you have to kind of crush 

1260
01:05:15,680 --> 01:05:18,480
businesses elsewhere. 
I don't know how long term 

1261
01:05:18,480 --> 01:05:21,560
sustainable that is. 
You know, the places where they 

1262
01:05:21,560 --> 01:05:24,840
are dumping. 
And I think that's that's going 

1263
01:05:24,840 --> 01:05:27,520
to be a challenge. 
So we'll say, I mean, the US 

1264
01:05:27,520 --> 01:05:29,600
obviously has become 
increasingly sceptical on free 

1265
01:05:29,600 --> 01:05:31,840
trade with them. 
I think a lot of that's quite 

1266
01:05:31,840 --> 01:05:34,960
well reasoned. 
Europe's kind of getting there 

1267
01:05:34,960 --> 01:05:37,120
in places. 
So I'm not sure how much longer 

1268
01:05:37,120 --> 01:05:39,280
they'll be able to keep this up.
It's really a political question

1269
01:05:39,280 --> 01:05:41,960
in Europe and the US more than 
anything else. 

1270
01:05:43,640 --> 01:05:45,440
Fascinating. 
Beautiful mate, I've got I've 

1271
01:05:45,440 --> 01:05:47,920
got nothing else but I've really
appreciated this conversation. 

1272
01:05:48,000 --> 01:05:52,520
Sensational. 
I was zoned in the whole time. 

1273
01:05:52,520 --> 01:05:56,320
That was freaking awesome mate. 
Yeah, I'm a I'm a fan of the 

1274
01:05:56,640 --> 01:05:59,160
the, the global view. 
So yeah, appreciate you making 

1275
01:05:59,160 --> 01:06:00,480
the time coming on the show, 
Alex. 

1276
01:06:00,560 --> 01:06:03,160
It's, it's actually our first, 
first yarn in the weeds about 

1277
01:06:03,160 --> 01:06:06,360
data centres really like of 
actually going into detail 

1278
01:06:06,360 --> 01:06:09,440
because it's a, it's a buzzword 
at the moment, but. 

1279
01:06:10,160 --> 01:06:12,000
Other than antimony. 
Antimony. 

1280
01:06:12,320 --> 01:06:15,640
Surprised the antimony but but 
it's like that's the first 

1281
01:06:15,680 --> 01:06:18,600
thought in detail one we've had.
So I look forward to plenty more

1282
01:06:18,600 --> 01:06:20,480
of that. 
I mean, a lot of these weird 

1283
01:06:20,480 --> 01:06:22,840
like off the run metal, like 
gallium for example, like that 

1284
01:06:22,840 --> 01:06:26,560
was like 3 bucks a kilo. 
Like because China just decided,

1285
01:06:26,560 --> 01:06:30,040
hey, we produce a bunch of 
bauxite, you know, we might as 

1286
01:06:30,040 --> 01:06:32,800
well aluminium, we might as well
just produce a byproduct. 

1287
01:06:33,160 --> 01:06:35,360
And The funny thing is now we've
got a China's basically banned 

1288
01:06:35,360 --> 01:06:37,840
exports. 
The price is now 455 bucks a 

1289
01:06:37,840 --> 01:06:40,200
kilo. 
And at the same time, I saw 

1290
01:06:40,200 --> 01:06:42,720
actually an article in the West,
there were people getting all 

1291
01:06:42,720 --> 01:06:48,640
stroppy about the wagger up and 
all the like refineries of all 

1292
01:06:48,640 --> 01:06:54,320
that red mud waste in WA. 
And I'm like, wait up, we've got

1293
01:06:54,320 --> 01:06:56,400
a gallium shortage outside 
China, OK. 

1294
01:06:57,120 --> 01:07:01,160
And we've got a red mud disposal
problem in WA. 

1295
01:07:01,520 --> 01:07:04,040
Interesting. 
Why don't we just process all 

1296
01:07:04,040 --> 01:07:06,720
the red mud, do exactly what 
they do in China and solve this 

1297
01:07:06,720 --> 01:07:08,200
problem? 
And it's like there's no 

1298
01:07:08,200 --> 01:07:12,280
discussion of that anywhere. 
It's it's pretty funny. 

1299
01:07:12,280 --> 01:07:14,960
So there's a lot of these, 
there's a lot of these kinds of 

1300
01:07:14,960 --> 01:07:16,960
missing markets where I think 
there's room for the government 

1301
01:07:16,960 --> 01:07:19,840
to say, all right, guys, you 
need to reprocess that waste. 

1302
01:07:19,840 --> 01:07:21,360
But here's the thing. 
I'm gonna give you, you know, 

1303
01:07:21,360 --> 01:07:25,320
300 bucks for the 300 bucks kilo
for the for the gallium and that

1304
01:07:25,320 --> 01:07:26,960
would work. 
I'm going, I'm going to find a 

1305
01:07:26,960 --> 01:07:29,400
red mud producer and we'll talk 
after the show, mate. 

1306
01:07:29,560 --> 01:07:32,040
There's, there's, there's a lot 
of it in WA. 

1307
01:07:32,040 --> 01:07:34,520
The alumina guy sounded like a 
former guest of our our, our 

1308
01:07:34,760 --> 01:07:35,800
party. 
Todd Milan. 

1309
01:07:35,800 --> 01:07:37,480
You might even know him, but he 
was. 

1310
01:07:37,480 --> 01:07:38,840
I think he used to head up there
was. 

1311
01:07:38,840 --> 01:07:40,120
He's a nickel guy, right? 
Yeah. 

1312
01:07:40,520 --> 01:07:43,720
But he used to be like Rio Tinto
aluminium division. 

1313
01:07:43,800 --> 01:07:45,720
Some, some, some. 
Senior role there and he, he 

1314
01:07:45,720 --> 01:07:49,120
advocated for, you know, these 
gallium circuits on some of the 

1315
01:07:49,120 --> 01:07:51,120
downstream stuff. 
But but you know, never quite 

1316
01:07:51,320 --> 01:07:54,520
like that that you know, small 
CapEx and like you know, it was,

1317
01:07:54,560 --> 01:07:57,800
it was just kind of irrelevant 
and never, never, never kind of 

1318
01:07:57,800 --> 01:08:00,440
justified anything. 
Any, any, this is The funny 

1319
01:08:00,440 --> 01:08:02,600
thing with all these like 
critical, like particularly the 

1320
01:08:02,600 --> 01:08:05,480
stuff in semiconductors, like 
everyone kind of assumes it's 

1321
01:08:05,480 --> 01:08:07,280
going to be there. 
If you're a real tenter, you're 

1322
01:08:07,280 --> 01:08:09,840
like, OK, so I'm going to put in
150 bucks, so I could have maybe

1323
01:08:09,840 --> 01:08:11,360
make 20 bucks a day, but they're
a year. 

1324
01:08:11,360 --> 01:08:14,480
Like this is sort of pizza money
at Rio Tinto. 

1325
01:08:14,880 --> 01:08:16,960
But the problem is when we don't
have it, we will absolutely 

1326
01:08:16,960 --> 01:08:18,680
know. 
That cannot be not fun. 

1327
01:08:19,200 --> 01:08:21,680
So I think that in those 
situations, there's definitely a

1328
01:08:21,680 --> 01:08:24,800
role for government for sure. 
Ah, bloody beautiful mate. 

1329
01:08:24,800 --> 01:08:27,080
I apologise in advance 
everything you said about data 

1330
01:08:27,080 --> 01:08:29,920
centres and that or you're gonna
be hear those words resonating 

1331
01:08:29,920 --> 01:08:32,560
out of my mouth in the future as
my own idea. 

1332
01:08:32,560 --> 01:08:35,439
So just letting you know, hope 
they're not copyright. 

1333
01:08:35,439 --> 01:08:37,120
Yeah. 
So I appreciate the insight 

1334
01:08:37,120 --> 01:08:38,359
mate. 
That was sensational. 

1335
01:08:38,479 --> 01:08:39,279
Cheers, Alex. 
Thanks. 

1336
01:08:39,319 --> 01:08:40,560
Good to chat, have a good one. 
Bye. 

1337
01:08:41,080 --> 01:08:41,560
You too mate. 
How? 

1338
01:08:41,800 --> 01:08:42,279
Good. 
Was that? 

1339
01:08:42,520 --> 01:08:46,439
That was awesome. 
That was that was as yeah, that 

1340
01:08:46,439 --> 01:08:48,880
was really fascinating. 
I love, I love asking any 

1341
01:08:48,880 --> 01:08:50,359
question and having someone 
answer it. 

1342
01:08:50,600 --> 01:08:52,200
So what? 
They just know heaps of shit. 

1343
01:08:52,840 --> 01:08:55,600
That, that global view is very 
much up my alley. 

1344
01:08:55,600 --> 01:08:58,439
So I was, I was a big fan of 
that chat and you know, a lot of

1345
01:08:58,760 --> 01:09:01,160
different talking points and 
like you said, Maddie data 

1346
01:09:01,160 --> 01:09:02,880
centres, these sorts of things, 
things we haven't touched on, 

1347
01:09:03,120 --> 01:09:05,760
which I'm sure we will do a 
whole lot more of in the future.

1348
01:09:05,760 --> 01:09:09,960
But if he had like, in terms of 
the like investment experience 

1349
01:09:09,960 --> 01:09:13,600
and said he can read and write 
Mandarin, like, that'd be like 

1350
01:09:13,600 --> 01:09:16,240
the most appealing Tinder 
profile he could put up. 

1351
01:09:16,279 --> 01:09:20,720
Like far out like what a bloke. 
Like I said, anything he can't 

1352
01:09:20,720 --> 01:09:22,520
do? 
Unbelievable. 

1353
01:09:22,840 --> 01:09:24,800
Speaking of Speaking of 
unbelievable, Maddie. 

1354
01:09:25,040 --> 01:09:30,960
Axis axis mining technology lost
for words our unbelievable 

1355
01:09:30,960 --> 01:09:32,920
mineral mining services. 
You want to look after your 

1356
01:09:32,920 --> 01:09:37,000
health and get a good sleep. 
Do ajv with them mate verify 

1357
01:09:37,359 --> 01:09:41,800
buddy Adia Adia first ad route 
for Adia yesterday get excited 

1358
01:09:41,800 --> 01:09:46,000
for the conference. 
DSI underground Silverstone CRE 

1359
01:09:46,000 --> 01:09:51,359
insurance greenlands equipment 
pipes pipes pipes K drill and 

1360
01:09:51,840 --> 01:09:55,000
obviously it's no brainer. 
Get a Spark chart India. 

1361
01:09:55,280 --> 01:09:59,600
Pedro, go Australia. 
Information contained in this 

1362
01:09:59,600 --> 01:10:02,360
episode of Money of Mine is of 
general nature only and does not

1363
01:10:02,360 --> 01:10:05,000
take into account the 
objectives, financial situation 

1364
01:10:05,040 --> 01:10:07,080
or needs of any particular 
person. 

1365
01:10:07,360 --> 01:10:10,400
Before making any investment 
decision, you should consult 

1366
01:10:10,400 --> 01:10:13,440
with your financial advisor and 
consider how appropriate the 

1367
01:10:13,440 --> 01:10:17,160
advice is to your objectives, 
financial situation and needs.