1 00:00:00,480 --> 00:00:03,000 I, I, yeah, I've got an open-ended question for you 2 00:00:03,000 --> 00:00:04,320 guys. How do you make money in 3 00:00:04,320 --> 00:00:07,120 resources investing? Incidentally, there's a lot of a 4 00:00:07,120 --> 00:00:09,880 lot more like a much larger list of ways you can lose money 5 00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:12,880 investing in resources stuffs in there is to to make money. 6 00:00:12,880 --> 00:00:14,520 But yeah, the four categories that I have is. 7 00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:21,280 Rhino Money miners today we are talking about multiple mining 8 00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:24,040 companies and doesn't matter which bloody mining company are 9 00:00:24,040 --> 00:00:27,720 CR Insurance is your friend to sort insurance out for you 10 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:30,120 Don't. Insurance is not a taboo word. 11 00:00:30,280 --> 00:00:33,080 It's not boys because you call them, they sort the whole thing 12 00:00:33,080 --> 00:00:34,560 out for you. It's the trusted broker. 13 00:00:34,560 --> 00:00:36,160 Peace of Mind, That's what insurance gives you. 14 00:00:36,160 --> 00:00:38,840 It's like it's the thing you need when you're up shit Creek. 15 00:00:38,920 --> 00:00:41,120 And now, and if you feel like you're up shit Creek with 16 00:00:41,120 --> 00:00:45,840 insurance, COCRE will give you a bloody 16 paddles like they are 17 00:00:45,840 --> 00:00:49,600 the team, they are African mining insurance specialists. 18 00:00:49,840 --> 00:00:52,960 They're located Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Orange 19 00:00:53,040 --> 00:00:56,080 Orange. So mate, just get them to run 20 00:00:56,080 --> 00:00:57,760 their eye out. You might have too much 21 00:00:57,760 --> 00:00:59,040 insurance, you mightn't have enough. 22 00:00:59,200 --> 00:01:02,520 You might have bad insurance, a wrong one, but I'll tell you. 23 00:01:02,600 --> 00:01:03,840 The review's free. Yep. 24 00:01:04,000 --> 00:01:05,440 Review's free. Unbelievable. 25 00:01:05,440 --> 00:01:06,880 Go CRE I. Think it still is. 26 00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:11,400 What do we got there? We got bloody Genesis Quarterly 27 00:01:11,400 --> 00:01:13,520 out yesterday. You got Aurelia? 28 00:01:13,520 --> 00:01:14,640 Yeah. We're going to talk about 29 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:16,640 Aurelia, mate. And we're going to. 30 00:01:16,640 --> 00:01:18,040 Talk about CRE in orange. Yep, and. 31 00:01:18,200 --> 00:01:22,440 We're going to talk about gold fields a bit going on there. 32 00:01:23,080 --> 00:01:25,400 Is it bloody? Have you have you sniffed it out 33 00:01:25,400 --> 00:01:27,960 or is it public? It's pretty public. 34 00:01:28,000 --> 00:01:30,920 It's pretty public, although it it's not as widely reported as 35 00:01:30,920 --> 00:01:33,440 maybe it should be. Yeah, right. 36 00:01:33,840 --> 00:01:36,280 I'll start with. Left myself in suspense, right? 37 00:01:36,360 --> 00:01:38,600 Genesis, Genesis. Jesus Christ, look at the bloody 38 00:01:38,600 --> 00:01:42,920 she's flying 4 bucks 40 Ding Ding Ding for the Alley GC gold 39 00:01:42,920 --> 00:01:48,200 fund, which by rights should be gone off based on the last year. 40 00:01:48,440 --> 00:01:51,080 I hope it is unless she's trimmed too early. 41 00:01:51,360 --> 00:01:58,360 So cash holding increases by 111 million to four 348 and they 42 00:01:58,360 --> 00:02:04,120 produce just below 60,000 oz. But now I'm pretty sure the cash 43 00:02:04,120 --> 00:02:08,560 and bullion increased by 99 million Aussie quarter on 44 00:02:08,560 --> 00:02:11,000 quarter to 321. But it's the the they got the 45 00:02:11,000 --> 00:02:14,880 liquid investments of 28 mil. So 'cause remember, they hold 46 00:02:14,880 --> 00:02:19,360 7.3% of Gorilla Gold, which has a 300 mil market cap now. 47 00:02:19,600 --> 00:02:21,600 Wow. So that's worth about 22 mil in 48 00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:23,200 itself. And quarter on quarter, it's 49 00:02:23,200 --> 00:02:27,040 gone from $0.26 to $0.48 based on March 31. 50 00:02:27,040 --> 00:02:30,880 So that's where a bit a bit of extra money's come in from the 51 00:02:30,880 --> 00:02:34,000 value of that liquid investment. Maddie, I can see in in the show 52 00:02:34,000 --> 00:02:36,360 notes here you've written in about size 36 font. 53 00:02:36,360 --> 00:02:38,040 Are you extra excited about the the cash? 54 00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:39,640 Building. I don't know why I did that, it 55 00:02:39,640 --> 00:02:43,760 must have just been the way my computer screen was. 100 bucks 56 00:02:43,760 --> 00:02:45,280 added for the quarter. It's not not bad. 57 00:02:45,280 --> 00:02:47,880 It's something to get excited. Yeah, no, they've done done 58 00:02:47,880 --> 00:02:52,600 bloody well. So average sales price of 4496, 59 00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:55,680 they did have some Fords to deliver into, but they're 60 00:02:55,840 --> 00:03:00,800 relatively so that four and a half thousand were delivered in 61 00:03:00,840 --> 00:03:04,160 at 3649. So pretty much they've only got 62 00:03:04,160 --> 00:03:08,360 4 1/2 thousand 1/4 for the next two at 3700. 63 00:03:08,360 --> 00:03:12,400 So they're pretty much pretty close to fully exposed about 7% 64 00:03:12,400 --> 00:03:17,120 of production and they do have some small amount of 0 cost 65 00:03:17,120 --> 00:03:23,720 collars to deliver into at 4235 from December 25 onwards, 4 1/2 66 00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:26,560 thousand so, but it's a small amount of production. 67 00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:30,720 So you'd say 90 odd percent unhedged, so isn't. 68 00:03:30,720 --> 00:03:32,680 It funny you put those collars in kind of thinking, oh, the 69 00:03:32,680 --> 00:03:34,720 gold price won't surpass that and then. 70 00:03:35,040 --> 00:03:38,800 Yeah, I know it does. Yeah, 40, yeah, 42 like 4200 71 00:03:38,800 --> 00:03:40,000 collars. They're like, of course you 72 00:03:40,000 --> 00:03:44,240 bloody would have back then to get a downside of 3500, but it's 73 00:03:44,240 --> 00:03:48,360 just changed so quickly. So yeah, again, they've 74 00:03:48,360 --> 00:03:53,440 reiterated their guidance 19210. You can see the growth profile 75 00:03:53,440 --> 00:03:57,040 that is ahead of them with the Lavenham mill getting turned 76 00:03:57,040 --> 00:03:59,360 back on. And I'll go through what sort of 77 00:03:59,880 --> 00:04:04,680 coming up and what is potentially not two to three 78 00:04:04,680 --> 00:04:11,040 years as initially anticipated. So Gualia that was they got a 79 00:04:11,040 --> 00:04:13,480 lot of this was flagged in the previous quarter. 80 00:04:13,480 --> 00:04:17,720 So they still got they got 25 and a bit 1000 oz at 6.2g mined 81 00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:19,920 there. So the the ore delivered was 82 00:04:20,399 --> 00:04:25,360 129,000 down from 182 but they were progressing through a 83 00:04:25,360 --> 00:04:28,200 selective portion of the mine which was flagged in the 84 00:04:28,200 --> 00:04:32,560 previous quarter. So but grades bloody positively 85 00:04:32,560 --> 00:04:35,800 reconciled Ulysses. So ramp up soapings continued 86 00:04:35,800 --> 00:04:38,840 there. So that's they've got they've 87 00:04:38,840 --> 00:04:42,320 got about 4000 oz at 3.4g from there. 88 00:04:42,360 --> 00:04:46,800 You do say their their reserve grade at Ulysses is 3.7g. 89 00:04:46,800 --> 00:04:48,920 So the previous two quarters have been below that. 90 00:04:48,920 --> 00:04:53,840 But I would looking at the like it was the highest amount of 91 00:04:53,840 --> 00:04:56,760 jumbo development made is in the past year for this quarter. 92 00:04:56,760 --> 00:05:00,040 So I would anticipate there'd be a higher percentage of 93 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:03,800 development or to stopping or hence the reserve grade might be 94 00:05:03,800 --> 00:05:07,880 a bit lower. But yeah, like Admiral and Hub, 95 00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:13,000 like bloody, yeah, good little pits, like Admiral's 1.8g, Hub 96 00:05:13,080 --> 00:05:17,040 3.8g out of that open pit. So it's a good little bloody 97 00:05:17,160 --> 00:05:21,120 sugar hit there. And their studies are actually 98 00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:23,560 planned to go look at underground at Hub. 99 00:05:23,560 --> 00:05:27,240 So unless there's some bloody super gene thing that cuts it 100 00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:30,280 off, you think if you get 3.8 in the pit, yeah, underground might 101 00:05:30,280 --> 00:05:32,440 be all right. So we'll keep posted there. 102 00:05:32,840 --> 00:05:36,800 Leonora Mill a bit underfed, probably because of Gwalia. 103 00:05:36,800 --> 00:05:39,080 A bit less dirt coming out of Gwalia and everything. 104 00:05:39,640 --> 00:05:44,640 So 300 and 304,000 tons. I remember it's a 1.4 million 105 00:05:44,640 --> 00:05:46,920 ton per annum mil. They did say there was a 106 00:05:47,120 --> 00:05:50,000 microburst. Storm Microburst. 107 00:05:50,000 --> 00:05:52,120 I've never heard that word. Microburst, it's a new one. 108 00:05:52,120 --> 00:05:57,400 It's in bloody quotation marks so that there was a couple of 109 00:05:57,400 --> 00:05:59,720 days power loss and a bit of damage to infrastructure. 110 00:05:59,720 --> 00:06:03,080 But they've got the flexibility now that they can just track the 111 00:06:03,080 --> 00:06:06,520 ship to Laverton and send it to the Mount Morgan's mill. 112 00:06:06,520 --> 00:06:11,480 So that's where the flexibility of those two mills can really 113 00:06:11,480 --> 00:06:14,520 come in handy because they can just divert trucks straight 114 00:06:14,520 --> 00:06:16,280 away. Like having that they can send 115 00:06:16,280 --> 00:06:19,200 them both directions kind of come in handy for like your 116 00:06:19,200 --> 00:06:21,800 shutdowns and everything because you can just throw everything up 117 00:06:21,800 --> 00:06:24,680 the other end. And so I live it in. 118 00:06:24,720 --> 00:06:28,400 Most of that was the existing stockpiles process there. 119 00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:31,880 784,000 tonne .9. They have got a bit of third 120 00:06:31,880 --> 00:06:36,840 party or coming from Bright Star and Kumarina. 121 00:06:36,840 --> 00:06:39,920 So you can see here on the for the live of the mill, the 122 00:06:39,920 --> 00:06:41,880 restart. What what's it say? 123 00:06:41,880 --> 00:06:45,160 Live of the mill form is temporary, class is permanent. 124 00:06:45,480 --> 00:06:46,920 Doesn't that sound like a Nike? App. 125 00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:50,840 I just read that. Form is temporary, class is 126 00:06:50,840 --> 00:06:52,560 permanent. That's quality I could. 127 00:06:52,960 --> 00:06:56,040 I could What is a good Australian brand that needs my 128 00:06:56,040 --> 00:06:59,760 voice on TV? Form is temporary, class is 129 00:06:59,760 --> 00:07:01,520 permanent. It's a hell of a caption for a 130 00:07:02,120 --> 00:07:03,960 for a figure in a in a mining quarterly. 131 00:07:04,400 --> 00:07:09,040 So now Tower Hill, it's progressing to plan. 132 00:07:09,040 --> 00:07:12,680 So it says they've got the section heritage, section 19 133 00:07:12,680 --> 00:07:17,640 approval received environmental wise, they've got the clearing 134 00:07:17,640 --> 00:07:20,280 permit application for stage one that's submitted. 135 00:07:20,400 --> 00:07:23,680 There's then you've obviously got stage 2 as well, the day 136 00:07:23,680 --> 00:07:26,240 watering it, the rail shortening. 137 00:07:26,240 --> 00:07:30,440 So it's not a diversion anymore. They're shortening it that 138 00:07:30,680 --> 00:07:34,560 targeting that agreement for June quarter 2025, delivering 139 00:07:34,560 --> 00:07:38,600 first or FY20 8 and development in FY20 7. 140 00:07:38,880 --> 00:07:43,480 But joys of having multiple assets because if you look back 141 00:07:44,680 --> 00:07:48,640 4th of April 2023, the like it said Tower Hill approvals and 142 00:07:48,640 --> 00:07:50,840 development timeline will be two to three years. 143 00:07:51,280 --> 00:07:54,280 Same in the Diggers Prezile 2023, two to three years. 144 00:07:54,560 --> 00:07:58,040 Well, we're at two years now and the rail shortening agreement 145 00:07:58,040 --> 00:08:02,520 hasn't been signed yet. So the the two to three years 146 00:08:02,520 --> 00:08:05,480 approvals development that they said that wasn't for first all 147 00:08:05,480 --> 00:08:08,480 that was approvals development that's probably going to end up 148 00:08:08,760 --> 00:08:13,720 as anticipated by most probably four years if that goes to plan. 149 00:08:13,720 --> 00:08:17,680 So but when you've got multiple assets, multiple plans, you're 150 00:08:17,920 --> 00:08:21,840 the focus isn't on that sole asset as much. 151 00:08:21,840 --> 00:08:26,000 So that's where it gets a bit you're, you're protected in that 152 00:08:26,240 --> 00:08:28,560 sense a bit so. You also reckon those guys are 153 00:08:28,560 --> 00:08:31,440 pretty good at underweighting expectations as well. 154 00:08:31,440 --> 00:08:34,000 They don't want to get people too pumped up about it and beat 155 00:08:34,000 --> 00:08:37,520 those expectations. Well, and look at evolution 156 00:08:37,520 --> 00:08:40,159 Mangari, what with that commissioning was 10 months 157 00:08:40,159 --> 00:08:41,240 ahead. Yeah. 158 00:08:41,240 --> 00:08:44,159 Schedule and on the budget. Nine to six, yeah, but it was 159 00:08:45,040 --> 00:08:46,800 they got lucky on the timing of a few things. 160 00:08:46,800 --> 00:08:49,800 Kind of, you know, a few things kind of got in before certain 161 00:08:49,800 --> 00:08:51,320 holiday periods. The long lead things all just 162 00:08:51,320 --> 00:08:53,560 lined up and it all it all came together cheaper and. 163 00:08:53,560 --> 00:08:56,440 Faster, Yeah, yeah. So look, there is, there is 164 00:08:56,440 --> 00:09:00,160 potential, but it's looking that that would have been blown out. 165 00:09:00,160 --> 00:09:02,200 It was a bit probably bullish initially. 166 00:09:02,200 --> 00:09:06,880 I thought you can see why they paid 53 mil at the time. 167 00:09:06,880 --> 00:09:09,440 They paid for that Bruno Lewis and Rayside projects. 168 00:09:09,440 --> 00:09:13,560 They've just done some reserve, a bit of infill drilling there 169 00:09:13,560 --> 00:09:19,240 for, for the reserve and like 5 metres at 27.8 grams, 15 1/2 170 00:09:19,880 --> 00:09:21,960 eight at 15. Like that's a, that's an open 171 00:09:21,960 --> 00:09:25,200 pit. So there's some and that because 172 00:09:25,200 --> 00:09:28,280 remember, that's the one they got out of Kin where they just 173 00:09:28,280 --> 00:09:30,400 took that one right in the middle. 174 00:09:30,400 --> 00:09:32,320 And just like, Nah, we don't want any of the rest of it. 175 00:09:32,480 --> 00:09:35,880 We just want that one. So you can probably say why. 176 00:09:35,880 --> 00:09:42,000 So yeah, they're bearing the fruit of their growth plan at 177 00:09:42,000 --> 00:09:45,160 the moment, I'd say with getting that live in the mill turned 178 00:09:45,160 --> 00:09:47,880 back on. Yeah, I think Jupiter that's 179 00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:51,000 scheduled to start mining in FY20 6. 180 00:09:51,000 --> 00:09:56,360 So that'll be a good chunk of the feed for Mount Morgan's. 181 00:09:56,360 --> 00:09:59,200 But I'll be I'll be interested to see if they're going to need 182 00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:02,600 more or. Did you hear 50's comments, you 183 00:10:02,600 --> 00:10:03,840 know JD's? No, I didn't. 184 00:10:03,880 --> 00:10:08,280 He said, he said, yeah, like, you know, kind of he he played 185 00:10:08,280 --> 00:10:11,200 down the potential of a tie up with with vault at the moment. 186 00:10:11,200 --> 00:10:13,400 But he sort of said, look, I think, I think where what they 187 00:10:13,480 --> 00:10:16,200 where they could use a deal is to to add high grade ounces to 188 00:10:16,440 --> 00:10:20,320 to Labourton. And he specifically listed Focus 189 00:10:20,600 --> 00:10:23,040 Magnetic and Bright Star. Yeah. 190 00:10:23,040 --> 00:10:26,000 Now Focus is Labourton projected publicly for sale that's out 191 00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:27,600 there. They could buy that. 192 00:10:28,080 --> 00:10:30,800 Yeah, Vault is publicly for sale. 193 00:10:30,880 --> 00:10:34,200 That's out there. Magnetic publicly has a data 194 00:10:34,200 --> 00:10:35,320 room. Yes, yeah. 195 00:10:37,160 --> 00:10:40,400 It what about tons? Was it was it was he more 196 00:10:40,400 --> 00:10:42,400 focused on getting high grade? Yeah, just high grade. 197 00:10:42,400 --> 00:10:44,440 I mean, you've got you've got Jupiter and all that sort of 198 00:10:44,440 --> 00:10:45,560 stuff. It's just like, can you add some 199 00:10:45,560 --> 00:10:47,680 sugar to make that grade go go north, you know? 200 00:10:47,920 --> 00:10:49,240 Yeah, yeah, yeah. I don't think you guys are 201 00:10:49,240 --> 00:10:51,000 concerned about the free cash flow in this gold price, but 202 00:10:51,000 --> 00:10:53,480 it's just, you know, a bit of sugar can really move the dial 203 00:10:53,480 --> 00:10:55,320 there. Yeah, and I think between like 204 00:10:55,680 --> 00:11:00,040 Bruno Lewis coming on Jupiter, like, yeah, you'd think it's 205 00:11:00,040 --> 00:11:02,080 just trying to make sure they got 3,000,000 tonne to put 206 00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:03,600 through it. And I think 'cause they can, 207 00:11:03,960 --> 00:11:07,320 they, I think they'll get to, if it's all open pit, they'll 208 00:11:07,320 --> 00:11:10,240 probably get 4 out of it. Like there's a lot of potential 209 00:11:10,240 --> 00:11:12,560 there as long as they've got enough, enough feed. 210 00:11:12,560 --> 00:11:15,880 So hence the oil purchase agreements, they will find out, 211 00:11:15,880 --> 00:11:19,480 they'll say all the stuff that brought stars up to up that end 212 00:11:19,480 --> 00:11:21,000 with. I know there's like undergrounds 213 00:11:21,000 --> 00:11:24,520 going in and stuff like it'll be bloody all gone there. 214 00:11:24,520 --> 00:11:26,200 I think they'll be taking every bit of dirt they can. 215 00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:28,200 And and that's the other thing. I mean, they could like Bright 216 00:11:28,200 --> 00:11:30,240 Star now that they've got, you know, sandstone and that's a 217 00:11:30,240 --> 00:11:31,920 priority focus and all that sort of stuff. 218 00:11:31,920 --> 00:11:34,560 They could recycle capital by selling that Bright Star project 219 00:11:34,560 --> 00:11:36,960 to to if if that was of use, Terry. 220 00:11:37,240 --> 00:11:39,000 But all of those things are kind of on the table. 221 00:11:39,000 --> 00:11:42,000 I think if, if, if I agree to answers really do move the dial 222 00:11:42,000 --> 00:11:44,480 a bit. And yeah, yeah, if Genesis kind 223 00:11:44,480 --> 00:11:48,160 of want to do something that's not Vault, that's what they do. 224 00:11:48,600 --> 00:11:50,800 Yeah, it doesn't look like it's gonna. 225 00:11:51,240 --> 00:11:53,200 Yeah, who knows? Then I'll say I'll fucking 226 00:11:53,480 --> 00:11:55,280 merely Spartan. Happened a week after I said 227 00:11:55,280 --> 00:11:58,920 that wasn't going to happen, so I didn't listen to me anyway. 228 00:11:58,920 --> 00:12:01,480 Right, let's go. Let's go over Race to God's 229 00:12:01,480 --> 00:12:03,680 Country, NSW. Oh, really? 230 00:12:04,480 --> 00:12:07,160 I, I, yeah, I've got an open-ended question for you guys 231 00:12:07,160 --> 00:12:09,880 before I before I kind of talk about really the companies for 232 00:12:09,880 --> 00:12:12,600 me. Just keen to get your unprepared 233 00:12:12,960 --> 00:12:15,880 responses to the question too. How do you make money in 234 00:12:15,880 --> 00:12:21,600 resources investing? Are you kind of referring to the 235 00:12:21,600 --> 00:12:24,080 different styles that you can play in the arena? 236 00:12:24,240 --> 00:12:26,200 Inter Interpret how you. Are as in as in buying the 237 00:12:26,200 --> 00:12:27,840 stocks? Yeah, how do you make money? 238 00:12:28,080 --> 00:12:30,680 Find, find which one's going to be a self fulfilling prophecy 239 00:12:30,680 --> 00:12:33,640 that it'll just go up because you got good management and 240 00:12:33,640 --> 00:12:35,560 what, Yeah. Back management, pick the 241 00:12:35,560 --> 00:12:39,440 commodity cycle nice and early, get on like a sort of tier one 242 00:12:39,440 --> 00:12:42,240 or a big discovery nice and early. 243 00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:46,840 Some people can pick catalysts that's that's a bit harder, 244 00:12:46,840 --> 00:12:53,760 whether that's M&A or, or you know, other other types of deals 245 00:12:53,760 --> 00:12:57,720 and things like that. Probably look at, look at, look 246 00:12:57,720 --> 00:13:01,080 at the ones that are the most bombed out, less susceptible to 247 00:13:01,760 --> 00:13:06,000 missing guidance, the most like the least riskiest to actually 248 00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:09,680 hit it and the ones that have some some upside somewhere in 249 00:13:09,680 --> 00:13:11,920 whether it's exploration or something to give you a 250 00:13:11,920 --> 00:13:14,240 statistical chance. The ones that are completely 251 00:13:14,240 --> 00:13:17,120 bombed out like a, like a Spartan where there's a 252 00:13:17,120 --> 00:13:19,480 recapitalisation and all these sorts of things. 253 00:13:19,480 --> 00:13:23,720 And maybe there's a a a part of the story that was 254 00:13:23,720 --> 00:13:25,560 underweighted, whether that's new management coming in, 255 00:13:25,560 --> 00:13:28,720 whether that's a discovery where the the futures can kind of 256 00:13:28,720 --> 00:13:30,560 change I. Think I think you do all of 257 00:13:30,560 --> 00:13:31,440 them. You'll make fuck. 258 00:13:33,240 --> 00:13:35,160 All the way easier on paper than in reality. 259 00:13:35,160 --> 00:13:38,320 Yeah, I think you touched on all the categories there that, that, 260 00:13:38,320 --> 00:13:41,240 that I, that I come up. Incidentally, there's a lot, a 261 00:13:41,240 --> 00:13:44,200 lot more like a a much larger list of ways you can lose money 262 00:13:44,880 --> 00:13:47,160 investing in resources, stocks in there is to to make money. 263 00:13:47,160 --> 00:13:49,760 But yeah, the four categories that I have is being early in a 264 00:13:49,760 --> 00:13:51,800 world class ore body. So you ride the less on curve to 265 00:13:51,800 --> 00:13:54,920 a take out or production. Now this is the GO alpha kind of 266 00:13:54,920 --> 00:13:57,640 style of investing. A lot of that cohort, they sift 267 00:13:57,640 --> 00:13:59,400 through the discovery announcements, you know, every 268 00:13:59,400 --> 00:14:00,480 morning. Yeah. 269 00:14:00,640 --> 00:14:04,240 Like looking for, looking for the next big thing #2 be early 270 00:14:04,560 --> 00:14:06,560 to a commodity cycle. Buy the stuff that is out of 271 00:14:06,560 --> 00:14:09,640 flavour, like gold stocks were two years ago, for example. 272 00:14:09,640 --> 00:14:12,000 And you'd be patient. You let cycles run their course. 273 00:14:12,200 --> 00:14:14,360 This is, you know, the contrarian investment style, 274 00:14:14,360 --> 00:14:17,720 which works really well in cyclical industries #3 reading 275 00:14:17,720 --> 00:14:19,720 the M&A tea leaves. Yeah. 276 00:14:19,720 --> 00:14:23,240 If you, if you know a company needs to buy a certain deposit 277 00:14:23,240 --> 00:14:25,280 for it's nearby mill, they're probably going to have to pay a 278 00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:27,240 premium for the ability to do that. 279 00:14:27,480 --> 00:14:29,840 This sounds easy in practice, but it's much harder to actually 280 00:14:29,840 --> 00:14:33,120 make money from because timing matters a lot #4 picking 281 00:14:33,120 --> 00:14:35,200 turnarounds. I have a lot of respect for the 282 00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:37,840 people that are good at this. It's it's very hard and it takes 283 00:14:37,840 --> 00:14:40,640 like real skill. Like, what's a turnaround play 284 00:14:41,160 --> 00:14:42,920 like we see all the time in our industry. 285 00:14:42,920 --> 00:14:45,720 Mining companies can find themselves in dire situations. 286 00:14:45,720 --> 00:14:47,400 They're, you know, royally cooked. 287 00:14:47,600 --> 00:14:50,320 And sentiment about them couldn't be any worse. 288 00:14:50,520 --> 00:14:52,400 And what causes them to be royally cooked? 289 00:14:52,960 --> 00:14:55,160 Could be It could be that sometimes I've got too much 290 00:14:55,160 --> 00:14:56,280 debt. It could be that there's a bad 291 00:14:56,280 --> 00:14:58,400 hedge book. Sometimes poor operational 292 00:14:58,400 --> 00:15:00,560 decisions by the management team in place. 293 00:15:00,680 --> 00:15:03,040 Sometimes the rocks you thought were there aren't as good when 294 00:15:03,040 --> 00:15:05,240 you actually start mining them. Sometimes it's out of your 295 00:15:05,240 --> 00:15:07,760 control too, like a weather event or a, you know, government 296 00:15:07,760 --> 00:15:10,640 regime shift. If the reason the mining company 297 00:15:10,640 --> 00:15:13,120 is cooked is the rocks, then you're screwed. 298 00:15:13,240 --> 00:15:15,600 But if the rocks are good and there's potential for it to turn 299 00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:18,640 around with better management or recapitalised capital structure, 300 00:15:19,760 --> 00:15:22,440 you know those are those are turn around opportunities. 301 00:15:22,560 --> 00:15:24,440 You can think of a couple of like successful turn around 302 00:15:24,440 --> 00:15:26,400 examples. I've put our Bander in that 303 00:15:26,400 --> 00:15:28,560 category. I've called Metro mining in that 304 00:15:28,560 --> 00:15:30,120 category. You know, think of like the 305 00:15:30,120 --> 00:15:33,200 stories like investing in Saint Barbara at $0.04 in 2014. 306 00:15:33,200 --> 00:15:34,800 As long as it's old. Yeah. 307 00:15:36,160 --> 00:15:38,800 Like resolute up until you know, she'd hit the fan recently 308 00:15:38,800 --> 00:15:40,280 there. You know, I'd argue Oz minerals 309 00:15:40,280 --> 00:15:42,360 at one point was a a bit of a turn around it. 310 00:15:42,440 --> 00:15:45,200 It certainly helps if you if you get I think. 311 00:15:45,200 --> 00:15:47,440 Well, I actually don't put Spartan in the category purely 312 00:15:47,440 --> 00:15:52,920 because like having a discovery isn't a, a, a catalyst. 313 00:15:52,920 --> 00:15:55,120 You could have controlled, you know, they, they, they did 314 00:15:55,120 --> 00:15:56,360 change strategy. They turned off the meal. 315 00:15:56,360 --> 00:15:58,400 There was a management change all those things. 316 00:15:58,400 --> 00:16:02,560 But like you couldn't have, you could and you could have bought 317 00:16:02,560 --> 00:16:05,160 it cheap, but you couldn't have predicted that catalyst because 318 00:16:05,160 --> 00:16:08,560 it was a discovery in some ways. But yeah, that maybe they 319 00:16:08,560 --> 00:16:10,880 disagree. I'd put Pilbara in the category 320 00:16:10,880 --> 00:16:14,240 and you know, Pilbara had a had a commodity tail cycle on their 321 00:16:14,240 --> 00:16:17,080 side and that you know, that's another kind of form of catalyst 322 00:16:17,080 --> 00:16:18,960 too, but. I was going to say your your 323 00:16:18,960 --> 00:16:21,880 second point, the commodity cycle and four have a lot of 324 00:16:21,960 --> 00:16:24,560 overlap in the behaviour of companies. 325 00:16:24,560 --> 00:16:27,000 Totally, totally. Those are those are the, yeah, 326 00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:29,320 the broad categories. Some, some other people probably 327 00:16:29,320 --> 00:16:32,800 have a few other strategies of ways to to make money and 328 00:16:33,080 --> 00:16:35,320 resources investing too. And if you do like it and it's a 329 00:16:35,320 --> 00:16:36,400 different one, then leave a comment. 330 00:16:36,400 --> 00:16:37,600 Let me know what what I've missed. 331 00:16:38,320 --> 00:16:44,800 But buy this. Buy the promote Yeah, so. 332 00:16:45,160 --> 00:16:47,320 I take it you can to talk about turnarounds. 333 00:16:48,040 --> 00:16:50,400 I do. To be a successful turn around, 334 00:16:50,400 --> 00:16:53,040 you need the catalyst that turns things around, right? 335 00:16:53,720 --> 00:16:56,920 Sometimes that's the a recap to pay out all of the the debt that 336 00:16:56,920 --> 00:16:59,440 is overburdening the company. Sometimes that's a change of 337 00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:01,560 management. Sometimes it's an expansion 338 00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:04,520 project to lower unit cost rate production into a commodity 339 00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:07,000 tailwind. What's more interesting in 340 00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:11,400 turnarounds, they're usually small caps, They're usually like 341 00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:14,760 sub $200 million market caps and maybe maybe have one or two 342 00:17:14,760 --> 00:17:16,319 assets. You know, they're they're in 343 00:17:16,319 --> 00:17:19,359 that kind of unloved territory. And and so they don't have a 344 00:17:19,359 --> 00:17:21,119 particularly institutional following. 345 00:17:21,119 --> 00:17:24,960 But if they turn it around, they graduate to a size that gets 346 00:17:24,960 --> 00:17:27,400 some, you know, gets institutions looking at them and 347 00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:29,640 all of a sudden they're in the indexes and you can you can sell 348 00:17:29,640 --> 00:17:31,360 your bags to the instos. Happy days, right? 349 00:17:31,840 --> 00:17:36,760 Aurelia metals came up in J DS interview with Fisty and which 350 00:17:36,760 --> 00:17:41,000 went up on Friday since Friday, the stock is literally now 35% 351 00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:46,080 more expensive. So well done Fisty and a really 352 00:17:46,200 --> 00:17:48,880 fits the the turn around category perfectly. 353 00:17:48,880 --> 00:17:52,200 We've, we've hashed out the reasons why Aurelia got itself 354 00:17:52,200 --> 00:17:55,560 into a predicament, you know, a dozen times on the show before 355 00:17:56,320 --> 00:17:59,400 buying dogs for 200 million bucks in December 2020, largely 356 00:17:59,400 --> 00:18:01,000 debt funded was it's, was it's undoing. 357 00:18:01,440 --> 00:18:05,480 And you can see in that share price chart there, 84% of it's 358 00:18:05,480 --> 00:18:09,400 equity value just eroded over the following years after after 359 00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:11,920 doing that. But over that time they did keep 360 00:18:11,920 --> 00:18:14,960 moving their federation project forward and that was their 361 00:18:14,960 --> 00:18:16,680 development growth project, which is actually a good 362 00:18:16,680 --> 00:18:19,240 project. The management of board of the, 363 00:18:19,520 --> 00:18:21,400 you know, were there when the Dogs deal got done. 364 00:18:21,400 --> 00:18:23,960 They got the boot. There's a whole new board, new 365 00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:27,040 MD, new executive team that largely got put in place around 366 00:18:27,040 --> 00:18:30,720 the rock bottom of end of 2022, start of 2023. 367 00:18:31,080 --> 00:18:35,920 In fact, with the new management team in place, they then put to 368 00:18:35,920 --> 00:18:39,760 bed the balance sheet concerns too, with a $40 million capital 369 00:18:39,760 --> 00:18:44,320 raise at $0.09 in May 2023. It's low was $0.09. 370 00:18:44,360 --> 00:18:47,440 It's now trading at $0.29. That was the turn around 371 00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:50,440 catalyst. You know, there, there, there 372 00:18:50,440 --> 00:18:52,680 were three at once, right? New team, better balance sheet, 373 00:18:53,200 --> 00:18:54,720 proximal development of federation. 374 00:18:56,480 --> 00:18:59,680 Yeah, so. So why I guess why is federation 375 00:18:59,680 --> 00:19:04,720 the is that their that's going to be their flagship 376 00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:07,200 effectively? This will be their core. 377 00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:11,080 It is their core asset. It's a polymetallic VMS, kind of 378 00:19:11,080 --> 00:19:13,880 classic cobar style deposit. It has, you know, a vertical 379 00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:16,720 orientation. I'll flash up its, its reserve, 380 00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:22,160 you know, 2.4 million tons containing 8.7% zinc, 5.1% lead, 381 00:19:22,160 --> 00:19:27,000 0.3% copper, 1.4g per ton gold and a little bit of silver too. 382 00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:30,680 Federation is entering its first full year of commercial 383 00:19:30,680 --> 00:19:34,600 production now I think, you know, initial, initial kind of 384 00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:36,720 kicked off around July last year. 385 00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:38,720 So it's, you know, it's, it's, it's moving forward, it's 386 00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:40,720 ramping up. But interestingly, they are 387 00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:42,760 mining it from the top of the ore body. 388 00:19:43,280 --> 00:19:48,120 You can see where development is as as at this month here just in 389 00:19:48,120 --> 00:19:50,080 that you know, you can actually see the the the development 390 00:19:50,280 --> 00:19:52,760 underground development there on the on the on the section. 391 00:19:53,360 --> 00:19:58,560 That they and that 1.4g gold like say they're getting half of 392 00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:00,120 it into concentrate. That's bloody. 393 00:20:00,360 --> 00:20:02,400 It's worth a bit of coin these days, like. 394 00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:05,000 All the other metals too. I mean, I think it's like a 5.5 395 00:20:05,560 --> 00:20:07,280 gold equivalent. Yeah, yeah. 396 00:20:07,280 --> 00:20:09,640 But I mean these polymetallics you should you should think of 397 00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:12,600 it in like a dollar per tonne net smell to return. 398 00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:14,800 Yeah, which is pretty, pretty attractive here. 399 00:20:15,080 --> 00:20:17,440 The decision to to you know, mine from the top down meant 400 00:20:17,440 --> 00:20:21,520 that all gets to the mill sooner lower, lower front capital, 401 00:20:21,520 --> 00:20:24,200 faster pay back and it and it meant that they could keep their 402 00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:27,840 capital structure of the company intact since that May 2023 403 00:20:27,840 --> 00:20:30,600 capital raise. And underpinning the low CapEx 404 00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:33,160 start up is also the fact that a really has an under 405 00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:37,360 underutilised processing facility just 80 kilometres down 406 00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:41,120 the road at their peak mine. So they can just hold it there. 407 00:20:41,120 --> 00:20:42,640 They didn't have to build it, build it, build a mill. 408 00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:45,920 And they actually just got approval to start holding 409 00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:50,160 600,000 tonnes per annum on the on the roads from Federation to 410 00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:53,680 to peak instead of the 200,000 tonne per annum limit before. 411 00:20:53,920 --> 00:20:57,200 The thing that Fisty spoke to in your interview JD was the cash 412 00:20:57,200 --> 00:21:01,000 generation that the company is on the verge of having from from 413 00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:03,880 FY20 6. They basically they transition 414 00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:07,480 into thicker higher grade Stopes at depth which carry the 415 00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:09,840 strongest margins and underpin the mines free cash flow 416 00:21:09,840 --> 00:21:11,320 generation. And you can kind of even see it 417 00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:13,000 just on the on the section there, right? 418 00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:15,400 Like all of a sudden you, you know, your mining shapes. 419 00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:18,440 Yeah, which I mean you can just think of the the benefit that 420 00:21:18,440 --> 00:21:21,680 that that has from a, a free cash flow generation potential. 421 00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:25,440 SO50's estimate was $100 million of free cash flow per annum on 422 00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:28,200 an EV, like an enterprise value of $250 million. 423 00:21:28,520 --> 00:21:31,360 Unfortunately, the market has clued on a bit more now and the 424 00:21:31,360 --> 00:21:34,840 EV is no longer 250 million, it's closer to $400 million. 425 00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:37,800 But I, I really do love appreciating a turn around. 426 00:21:37,800 --> 00:21:40,320 And I think, you know, there's a, there's a lot to be admired 427 00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:43,600 about, you know, a company that can turn, turn things around 428 00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:48,000 and, and yeah, you know, really, really move the dial like, you 429 00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:51,600 know, you've got an operational plan that works and create 430 00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:52,920 shareholder value. I think there's a lot to be 431 00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:56,800 admired about about that when it's pulled off and you know, I 432 00:21:56,800 --> 00:21:59,200 really is, is frankly, they're on the on the cusp of really 433 00:21:59,200 --> 00:22:01,400 reaping the reward from its turn around. 434 00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:03,640 You know, whether or not it's still cheap or not, you have to 435 00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:06,200 make your own mind up. But regardless, it's embarked on 436 00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:07,760 this path of of of a turn around. 437 00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:09,800 And today it's, it's been, it's been an impressive thing to 438 00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:11,640 watch. I'll have to, I have to write it 439 00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:14,320 up on it. Are they obviously go on top 440 00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:14,960 down now? Will they? 441 00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:16,680 Do they talk about paste or anything? 442 00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:20,000 Or yeah, they, they, they basically got to experiment with 443 00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:23,840 the pace early and kind of, you know, like, like, yeah, the, 444 00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:25,720 the, the pay system's been tested and all that sort of 445 00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:26,600 stuff. Yeah. 446 00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:28,000 All right. So they're obviously I think 447 00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:30,800 because I think before they were going to go like bottom, like 448 00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:33,920 not when they say bottom up, you don't go to the bottom. 449 00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:37,800 It's just like you go, you work on top of the paste and and 450 00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:43,840 everything. So it's it it's because you can 451 00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:46,320 do a lot of work in the other Stopes drilling them out while 452 00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:47,440 you're backfilling. Yeah. 453 00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:51,600 But for top down like that's the best way to manage stress 454 00:22:51,600 --> 00:22:54,400 because you always got a stress shadow top year because it's 455 00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:55,680 being excavated. Gotcha. 456 00:22:55,680 --> 00:22:58,160 Gotcha. And it's yeah, as you said, it's 457 00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:00,520 quicker because you just start because you've got to develop 3 458 00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:03,400 levels down before you mine and start whereas you just start 459 00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:06,440 taking or as you go. Yeah, but it can be can be a bit 460 00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:10,400 slower because you've got to wait for that pace to cure 461 00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:12,640 before you mine under it and stuff like that. 462 00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:14,120 So there's pros and pros and cons. 463 00:23:14,120 --> 00:23:14,800 It's. A trade off. 464 00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:16,680 And in this case, they made the trade off based on the, you 465 00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:19,360 know, the the reduced upfront cash. 466 00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:22,520 Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Shout out to young fella Lucas. 467 00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:24,960 He wrote this excellent note that he posted on LinkedIn 468 00:23:24,960 --> 00:23:27,160 together with Fisty's comments. Inspired me to take a look at a 469 00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:31,520 really again, Luke says no. He he, he writes this, he says 470 00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:33,960 it really is transitioning from a complex story into a cash 471 00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:36,600 machine and the market is yet to reprice it accordingly. 472 00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:41,280 Unfortunately for the punters and they're reading Luke's note, 473 00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:44,520 the market is repriced at 35% higher already since then. 474 00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:46,320 So I. Reckon Lucas has made some cash? 475 00:23:46,680 --> 00:23:48,560 Hope so, yeah, you deserve. Lucas moving the market. 476 00:23:49,000 --> 00:23:51,960 Yeah, yeah. Oh, it's, I think one thing we 477 00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:54,800 didn't mention about turnarounds. 478 00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:57,600 Oh, we sort of did about like you mentioned, because they sort 479 00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:00,880 of, you know, new management team and and everything like, 480 00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:03,480 even though they're not publicly listed, like Kaydrill were the 481 00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:05,240 same when Ron O'Sullivan rocked up. 482 00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:07,760 Like he's he's a turn around man. 483 00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:11,360 Yeah, like they just injected him like the obviously the 484 00:24:11,360 --> 00:24:14,800 sample management friggin standards went through the roof, 485 00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:18,760 like just company morale and look at how many Arsene Diamond 486 00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:21,360 I was they're drilling these days, but just punching him in 487 00:24:21,360 --> 00:24:22,760 the gold. Fields in all sorts of 488 00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:26,160 directions, mate and rhino he just when you when you in his 489 00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:28,720 presence, you kind of just fall into line. 490 00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:31,880 I've learned like this. I don't know, you just want to 491 00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:34,040 say yes to him no matter what. Like he's just that kind of 492 00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:35,800 figure. Yeah, and you, like you will say 493 00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:38,040 yes to everything because you trust him that he won't make you 494 00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:40,240 do anything stupid. No, like because he'll just 495 00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:41,720 never tell you to jump off a Cliff. 496 00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:46,640 No, like it's that you get into his the Ron O'Sullivan vortex of 497 00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:48,680 trust. If you haven't met him, I think 498 00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:51,520 you need to make it your mission to meet him and just understand 499 00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:54,160 what we're talking about with this vortex, because the net 500 00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:57,240 effect of it is more drill meters, faster drill meters, bit 501 00:24:57,240 --> 00:24:59,240 like better workers who are on those rigs getting the 502 00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:01,320 performance you need and. I never quit. 503 00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:05,000 Never quit the the quality of that sample management elite. 504 00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:07,480 Yeah, yeah, you just love him. Just reliable. 505 00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:10,600 Try reliable when you get in the vortex, just try not to kiss 506 00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:12,280 him. Everyone tries because they fall 507 00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:13,720 in love with him. Go okay drill. 508 00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:17,360 Go Ryan O'Sullivan JD, what have you bloody found out with 509 00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:20,400 Goldfields and it's not Gold Rd. related. 510 00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:22,800 Not gold Rd. related. We are going to Ghana for this 511 00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:24,640 story guys. Go to Ghana. 512 00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:26,360 And then the story sort of expands from there. 513 00:25:26,360 --> 00:25:30,960 But goldfields have had to hand over the keys to their domain 514 00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:33,160 goldmine to the Ghanaian government. 515 00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:38,240 And oh, just a quick by the way, Goldfields are now AUS $22 516 00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:40,880 billion company. Their market cap has nearly 517 00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:45,400 doubled since January. So they're on a a tear. 518 00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:48,040 That's a talk to the gold price. Yeah, right. 519 00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:49,560 Even amongst the majors, that is. 520 00:25:49,800 --> 00:25:53,360 I gather it wasn't like they just didn't voluntarily rock up 521 00:25:53,360 --> 00:25:56,520 our look, we're thinking we might give this back to you. 522 00:25:57,320 --> 00:26:00,640 I assume it was forcefully requested. 523 00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:02,640 Yeah, you're quite astute Matthew. 524 00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:04,000 Doesn't tend to play out that way. 525 00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:07,640 I'll give a bit of background to to the mine to to sort of start 526 00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:09,440 this story. So Goldfields have majority 527 00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:12,840 owned demand for over 20 odd years now. 528 00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:15,240 Government has a 10% free carried interest. 529 00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:19,800 The mine on 100% basis did 135,000 oz. 530 00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:23,440 So it's it's pretty small. It's a bit over 5% of goldfields 531 00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:27,720 total output. Mining ceased through the year 532 00:26:27,720 --> 00:26:32,120 of 2024 last year and they moved to trading stockpiles there, but 533 00:26:32,120 --> 00:26:35,600 still did pretty decent cash flow as you'd expect with with 534 00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:39,200 mining costs turned off. Free cash flow of $140 million. 535 00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:42,040 Did it did it stop because it the orbity, the orbity was 536 00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:45,120 extinguished or what it. So there's a bit to it and it's 537 00:26:45,120 --> 00:26:48,240 it's kind of complicated. I guess I'll get there in a 538 00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:51,560 second because there's still 3,000,000 odd ounces in 539 00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:55,400 resources, but no reserves. Given situation, they don't have 540 00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:57,680 the confidence to put things into reserves. 541 00:26:57,680 --> 00:27:01,600 But essentially this was this. And in the broader area was 542 00:27:01,600 --> 00:27:05,640 mined for a long time from the from the 19th century through to 543 00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:09,360 the kind of 1950s. But modern mining restarted here 544 00:27:09,360 --> 00:27:14,480 in 1997 with a mining lease, the license being granted just 545 00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:17,400 before that. Now production through the 20 546 00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:20,680 tens kind of waned a little bit and then gold fields came out 547 00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:24,200 with this big reinvestment plan favorite a kind of eight-year 548 00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:27,160 outlook, which is more or less where we're kind of at from 2016 549 00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:31,240 to about now and then in the early twenty 20s. 550 00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:35,200 So 2122 they start talking about studies to try and extend the 551 00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:38,680 life as well as maybe looking at selling the project. 552 00:27:39,120 --> 00:27:45,320 Now production had been on sort of queue to end this year, but 553 00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:49,160 like, like I said, you, you look at the the resources and in 554 00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:52,920 measured and indicated there's 2.2 million oz still at 1.8g. 555 00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:55,960 So it's decent. It was a sort of a bigger mine 556 00:27:55,960 --> 00:27:58,840 with a few satellite pits kind of feeding into it. 557 00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:02,280 Now the company added that they tried all these exploration 558 00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:04,000 targets. None of them turned out to be 559 00:28:04,320 --> 00:28:07,480 kind of too fruitful. They hadn't really spent much 560 00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:10,800 last year and not an awful lot the year before either on, on 561 00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:13,560 exploration. But if you do go back on the 562 00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:17,240 goldfields website, which hasn't been granted, you know, updated 563 00:28:17,240 --> 00:28:19,480 in, in too long. I, I take it this is from the 564 00:28:19,760 --> 00:28:24,000 sort of 2018 time frame they talk about mineral reserves 565 00:28:24,120 --> 00:28:28,360 being depleted by 2031. So there, there's answers there. 566 00:28:28,360 --> 00:28:32,280 And I dare say they knew that this mining lease was wrapping 567 00:28:32,280 --> 00:28:34,720 up in 2025. Hence they haven't invested 568 00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:37,760 heaps of capital because they had some sort of inklings that 569 00:28:37,760 --> 00:28:39,200 something like this would happen. 570 00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:42,760 So it's not black and white as to what the future of this would 571 00:28:42,760 --> 00:28:45,200 actually look like, but there's clearly gold in and around the 572 00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:47,080 area. So what what was the, I guess 573 00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:49,800 the background on they thought this was going to happen? 574 00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:52,960 There must have been must have been some lease dramas for a 575 00:28:52,960 --> 00:28:54,360 while. Yeah, yeah, absolutely. 576 00:28:54,360 --> 00:28:59,040 So December 2024, last year they submit an application to re 577 00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:01,160 extend it. They had like I said, received a 578 00:29:01,160 --> 00:29:03,760 30 year lease almost 30 years ago. 579 00:29:04,040 --> 00:29:06,840 It's due to expire April 25, where we are today. 580 00:29:07,440 --> 00:29:09,640 In that annual report from last year, there was a couple of 581 00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:13,080 interesting comments. So they say that they'd, you 582 00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:15,320 know, they sort of discussed that they're pursuing or would 583 00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:18,800 look to pursue all avenues to extend the lease as you'd kind 584 00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:20,680 of expect. And they actually specifically 585 00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:23,680 mentioned international arbitration if necessary. 586 00:29:24,440 --> 00:29:26,960 Now this week, the, the Minerals Commission, the sort of 587 00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:29,680 applicable body that looks over this stuff in, in Ghana, 588 00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:32,520 rejected the application. They told Goldfields stop all 589 00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:35,720 your mining, you need to be by tomorrow off the site needs to 590 00:29:35,720 --> 00:29:38,240 be vacant. And the company said that 591 00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:41,840 complied with that orders, they won't be there as of tomorrow. 592 00:29:43,040 --> 00:29:46,560 So then kind of what next is, is the question to ask. 593 00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:49,880 And the government hasn't specifically said why they 594 00:29:49,880 --> 00:29:54,520 didn't accept the mining lease. And you know, it's kind of par 595 00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:58,600 for the course you if the company meets all the necessary 596 00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:02,240 requirements, you extend it. That's how things normally work 597 00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:06,520 and Ghana by and large is held in high esteem than a lot of 598 00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:07,720 it's sort of neighboring countries. 599 00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:11,840 People are sort of called it a, you know, by African standards, 600 00:30:12,120 --> 00:30:14,240 a good jurisdiction to to operate in. 601 00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:16,360 So it's, it's pretty interesting on that front. 602 00:30:17,320 --> 00:30:19,120 The government wants to take the reins of this mine. 603 00:30:19,120 --> 00:30:20,840 It's very clear. You can go on YouTube and 604 00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:23,880 there's these sort of videos with a couple 100 views where 605 00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:27,360 CEO of the Minerals Commission and other videos with the deputy 606 00:30:27,360 --> 00:30:30,400 CEO of the Minerals Commission specifically talking about this. 607 00:30:30,400 --> 00:30:32,720 Mind, they're saying they're going to honor all the existing 608 00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:34,040 contracts. Nobody's going to lose their 609 00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:35,880 jobs, but processing will continue. 610 00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:38,800 And there's a sort of strong focus on Ghanaians being the one 611 00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:43,200 that's benefits from this. And they push back on what 612 00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:46,080 Goldfield said in one comment that said they said Goldfields 613 00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:49,360 didn't meet all the requirements, but they didn't go 614 00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:52,560 into any great detail on what kind of requirements other than 615 00:30:52,560 --> 00:30:56,680 saying there's no reserve. But that kind of goes hand in 616 00:30:56,680 --> 00:30:58,640 hand. Why would Goldfields put a 617 00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:00,320 reserve if they don't have confidence that they're actually 618 00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:02,520 going to mine it? That doesn't really makes sense, 619 00:31:02,520 --> 00:31:06,160 but that was the only real specific point that the 620 00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:09,560 government pushed back on. They did add that they want a 621 00:31:09,560 --> 00:31:11,360 better deal for the Ghanaian people. 622 00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:16,000 As you kind of expect right now, there's there's a bit more going 623 00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:18,320 on on Ghana. So I'll, I'll take a step back 624 00:31:18,320 --> 00:31:22,600 for a moment now, because there is much, much broader action 625 00:31:22,600 --> 00:31:25,360 happening. And Ghana's not some like tiny 626 00:31:25,360 --> 00:31:27,280 little gold producer. It's the sixth biggest gold 627 00:31:27,280 --> 00:31:30,440 producer on the planet. They produce a tremendous amount 628 00:31:30,440 --> 00:31:33,880 of gold by global standards. And they just created this body 629 00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:37,160 called Goldbod, which is now going to be the sole authority 630 00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:41,680 to buy, sell, assay, export any gold from small sale gold 631 00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:43,720 miners, right? So this isn't including your 632 00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:48,640 purchases of the world and your Anglo golds and others, but they 633 00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:52,360 want to organize artisanal mining in the area and they were 634 00:31:52,360 --> 00:31:54,640 pretty punchy about this. They said any foreign nationals 635 00:31:54,640 --> 00:31:57,960 tied up in small scale artisanal mining are going to be booted 636 00:31:57,960 --> 00:32:00,120 out the country. They lifted the growth and 637 00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:03,440 sustainability levy for major mining companies as well. 638 00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:06,840 So that is the big guys. That's lifted from 1% to 3% of 639 00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:10,480 gross production and so. Like a royalty, effectively. 640 00:32:10,480 --> 00:32:14,680 More or less, yeah. And the finance minister said in 641 00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:17,760 Parliament that the government must leverage rising gold prices 642 00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:19,640 to boost revenue for national development. 643 00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:23,600 So interestingly, the what we would call the opposition leader 644 00:32:23,800 --> 00:32:26,280 pushed back on this and said this is going to have an adverse 645 00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:29,240 effect on the resources industry in our country. 646 00:32:29,240 --> 00:32:32,160 So it's getting, it's getting a bit punchy over there. 647 00:32:33,040 --> 00:32:37,120 They sold as a country over 11 billion U.S. dollars of gold 648 00:32:37,120 --> 00:32:40,080 last year. Half of that came from artisanal 649 00:32:40,080 --> 00:32:41,360 mining. Wow. 650 00:32:41,880 --> 00:32:44,320 That is a huge, huge amount which the government isn't 651 00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:46,600 getting a clip on. So that is why they're getting 652 00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:50,280 pretty, pretty punchy and they want their share, as you'd kind 653 00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:52,880 of expect. And that the story as it relates 654 00:32:52,880 --> 00:32:55,920 to Goldfields gets a bit more complicated because as you guys 655 00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:59,120 might remember, they own the Taqwa mine in Ghana as well. 656 00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:01,840 This is a beast. This pumps out over half a 657 00:33:01,840 --> 00:33:05,440 million oz per annum. And they want to form this into 658 00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:08,440 a joint venture with Anglo Gold's idea Prem. 659 00:33:08,480 --> 00:33:11,360 So this this was mentioned back in 2023. 660 00:33:11,800 --> 00:33:14,320 And clearly the Ghanaian government have this as 661 00:33:14,320 --> 00:33:18,000 leverage. They need government approval to 662 00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:21,120 join up these two minds and to to press on with the expansion 663 00:33:21,440 --> 00:33:24,320 at this operation. That alone has 11 years of life 664 00:33:25,120 --> 00:33:27,800 at half a million oz, right? This is huge. 665 00:33:27,800 --> 00:33:33,200 So I would imagine Goldfields are just viewing this having to 666 00:33:33,200 --> 00:33:37,240 give up the the license for the upper other operation domain as 667 00:33:37,240 --> 00:33:38,320 the cost of doing business, right? 668 00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:42,640 Because this is really the the golden goose that you don't want 669 00:33:42,640 --> 00:33:44,600 to give away. You want to stay on the right 670 00:33:44,600 --> 00:33:46,800 side of the government. Yeah, right. 671 00:33:46,800 --> 00:33:50,760 That's it's interesting that they're going after the mining 672 00:33:50,760 --> 00:33:54,000 companies and the locals as well for the clip. 673 00:33:54,280 --> 00:33:57,320 Yeah, yeah, absolutely. I think that, I mean, that 674 00:33:57,640 --> 00:34:00,600 really leads me to, to my final thoughts on, on why I find this 675 00:34:00,600 --> 00:34:04,080 super, super interesting because, you know, some, some 676 00:34:04,080 --> 00:34:07,880 people might not be all that bothered by this small mine, 677 00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:10,719 relatively small mine owned by a South African company in, in 678 00:34:10,719 --> 00:34:12,280 Ghana. That's, that's fair enough. 679 00:34:12,280 --> 00:34:15,840 But I feel there's a lot more to this story because nothing 680 00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:18,760 happens in a vacuum. And as an investor, you need to 681 00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:21,800 be reading the tea leaves about what's going on because we've 682 00:34:21,800 --> 00:34:24,199 seen it in Mali, You're seeing it now in Ghana in a 683 00:34:24,199 --> 00:34:26,880 jurisdiction that people thought was was safer. 684 00:34:26,880 --> 00:34:29,760 And these things, they don't happen in isolation. 685 00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:32,199 Just like companies look at what their neighbors are doing next 686 00:34:32,199 --> 00:34:35,520 door, governments do the same. And with the gold price going 687 00:34:35,520 --> 00:34:38,920 through the roof, there's horrific youth unemployment in 688 00:34:38,920 --> 00:34:42,719 Ghana. Artisanal mining has damaged 689 00:34:42,719 --> 00:34:44,880 more than half the the rivers in the country. 690 00:34:45,159 --> 00:34:47,639 There's a lot of reasons for why they want to get a hold of this, 691 00:34:47,639 --> 00:34:51,400 get the cash in the door and look after their people as well 692 00:34:51,400 --> 00:34:54,440 as look after themselves. Kind of no surprise on that 693 00:34:54,440 --> 00:34:56,199 front, but. There are the unintended 694 00:34:56,199 --> 00:34:59,640 consequences along the way of just like, yeah, other companies 695 00:34:59,880 --> 00:35:02,320 who are thinking about investing in in the country all of a 696 00:35:02,320 --> 00:35:04,200 sudden think twice. Yeah, absolutely. 697 00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:07,240 And clearly domain isn't a world class asset. 698 00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:11,160 It's not going to be a massive blow to to goldfields cash 699 00:35:11,160 --> 00:35:12,840 flows. There would have still been 700 00:35:12,840 --> 00:35:15,000 value. I mean just processing the 701 00:35:15,000 --> 00:35:18,960 stockpiles, imagine if it's even if it's 50,000 ounces of all 702 00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:22,640 that's already been mind like we're we're talking 100 million 703 00:35:22,840 --> 00:35:26,080 U.S. dollars in in cash flow. So that alone not to mention 704 00:35:26,080 --> 00:35:29,120 what you'd sell a 5 million tonne per annum plant for with 705 00:35:29,200 --> 00:35:32,280 with gold in and around the area that there is value that they're 706 00:35:32,680 --> 00:35:36,800 foregoing here. But it was very, very noteworthy 707 00:35:36,800 --> 00:35:40,120 that Gold Fields in their announcement yesterday, made no 708 00:35:40,120 --> 00:35:42,000 mention of international arbitration, but. 709 00:35:43,520 --> 00:35:46,000 Trying to keep it. They want to keep it cordial. 710 00:35:46,000 --> 00:35:47,760 They want to keep the relationship with the government 711 00:35:48,080 --> 00:35:51,920 all kosher because they know that taqwa is way more important 712 00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:54,200 for them. And they don't want to build up 713 00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:57,000 any animosity with the I mean, this is my assumption. 714 00:35:57,000 --> 00:35:59,520 And I think it's the most kind of obvious assumption, right? 715 00:35:59,520 --> 00:36:03,040 They want to stay on on side with the Ghanaian government and 716 00:36:03,040 --> 00:36:06,920 make sure that the the big one they've got is in good hands. 717 00:36:06,920 --> 00:36:09,040 And they're going to have to forego a little bit. 718 00:36:09,040 --> 00:36:14,480 But yeah, with gold prices doing what they've done, I'm not going 719 00:36:14,480 --> 00:36:17,200 to be surprised if we start seeing more things like this all 720 00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:19,200 around the world. It's it's just par for the 721 00:36:19,200 --> 00:36:22,160 course. And yeah, in a in a sort of 722 00:36:22,160 --> 00:36:25,000 environment of like resource nationalism, you just see more 723 00:36:25,000 --> 00:36:28,160 and more of this when countries are doing it hard, when they've 724 00:36:28,160 --> 00:36:31,800 got yet that they owe the the IMF or the World Banker, all 725 00:36:31,800 --> 00:36:33,640 this sort of stuff, they're going to twist the levers that 726 00:36:33,640 --> 00:36:35,280 they. Can well, I think resource 727 00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:38,720 nationalism was already happening a lot in Africa before 728 00:36:38,720 --> 00:36:40,920 the gold price started RIP. And so it's probably going to be 729 00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:44,160 even more heightened now, yeah, A. 100% it's happening in in 730 00:36:44,160 --> 00:36:46,960 South America as well. You look at what what Chile did 731 00:36:46,960 --> 00:36:49,040 to the lithium sector, it's all around the world. 732 00:36:49,240 --> 00:36:52,600 The, the, the, the tricky thing, I say tricky thing, but it's 733 00:36:52,600 --> 00:36:56,840 like the, the thing to be cognizant of is like when, when 734 00:36:57,480 --> 00:37:01,560 regimes change based on the good times, then you're really into 735 00:37:01,560 --> 00:37:05,040 that industry in the, in the normal times, think of 736 00:37:05,040 --> 00:37:07,840 Queensland and the coal royalty change, right? 737 00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:11,080 So the good times came making super profits. 738 00:37:11,080 --> 00:37:13,800 Oh, we're going to Jack up these royalties to absolutely onerous 739 00:37:13,800 --> 00:37:16,480 levels, which progressively get higher and higher as you make 740 00:37:16,480 --> 00:37:18,840 more money. And now, like, as coal prices 741 00:37:18,840 --> 00:37:22,320 moderate, it becomes really hard to have just free cash flow. 742 00:37:23,160 --> 00:37:26,280 So you don't want that to happen just because it's good times 743 00:37:26,280 --> 00:37:27,640 right now in the gold sector. Yeah. 744 00:37:28,240 --> 00:37:29,600 Definitely. Yeah, mate. 745 00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:34,240 I reckon your bloody your prediction is your analysis. 746 00:37:34,240 --> 00:37:36,760 Spot on Jada. That is definitely what they do. 747 00:37:37,440 --> 00:37:39,000 Thank you man. Catchy in the corporate team. 748 00:37:39,480 --> 00:37:42,080 It's, I mean, it's, it's one to watch for minors all around the 749 00:37:42,080 --> 00:37:44,520 world, I reckon. Yeah, yeah, love it. 750 00:37:44,640 --> 00:37:47,160 Should we? You could create J DS Bond map 751 00:37:47,160 --> 00:37:50,880 of international relationships. I'm sure they'd. 752 00:37:50,880 --> 00:37:54,840 Be they've already done M and IL as one, that could be your next 753 00:37:54,840 --> 00:37:57,240 project. We met some cracking folks in in 754 00:37:57,240 --> 00:38:00,400 South Africa who who do this, but they they keep it on the 755 00:38:00,640 --> 00:38:03,120 very hush hush and they maintain those relationships. 756 00:38:03,120 --> 00:38:04,120 I. Want to give you trade so you 757 00:38:04,120 --> 00:38:05,720 could serve. By No No. 758 00:38:06,680 --> 00:38:08,720 Well, you get it for free here. Why? 759 00:38:08,720 --> 00:38:10,400 Not all my dartboard predictions. 760 00:38:11,040 --> 00:38:13,040 Love it righto. Thanks to all the bloody 761 00:38:13,040 --> 00:38:16,080 partners. GRX tickets mate. 762 00:38:16,080 --> 00:38:19,920 Use the code, come to Brisbane with me and we'll bloody have a 763 00:38:19,920 --> 00:38:23,600 beer and talk tech and innovation because that's what I 764 00:38:23,600 --> 00:38:24,840 do. I talk tech. 765 00:38:25,040 --> 00:38:26,960 I talk tech and innovation with people. 766 00:38:27,600 --> 00:38:30,680 I'm a trusted source of it. JRX conference, Brisbane, May 767 00:38:30,680 --> 00:38:33,480 2020 Second discount code in the show notes. 768 00:38:33,800 --> 00:38:36,840 Great partners these people are sensational. 769 00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:41,280 MMS ground sand and ground support, CR insurance K drill WA 770 00:38:41,280 --> 00:38:46,120 water borders quattro kci black diamond drilling services and 771 00:38:46,120 --> 00:38:50,480 cross boundary energy roof. Information contained in this 772 00:38:50,480 --> 00:38:53,200 episode of Money of Mine is of general nature only and does not 773 00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:55,840 take into account the objectives, financial situation 774 00:38:55,920 --> 00:38:57,960 or needs of any particular person. 775 00:38:58,200 --> 00:39:01,240 Before making any investment decision, you should consult 776 00:39:01,240 --> 00:39:04,320 with your financial advisor and consider how appropriate the 777 00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:08,000 advice is to your objectives, financial situation and needs.