1 00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:03,320 JD, are we about to see a bidding war for this copper 2 00:00:03,320 --> 00:00:04,920 junior? There could be some alpha in 3 00:00:04,920 --> 00:00:06,880 this episode mate. Maybe, maybe not. 4 00:00:06,880 --> 00:00:09,640 Because Xanadu has received a bid from Bastion and it seems 5 00:00:09,640 --> 00:00:12,760 cleverly structured to elicit a counter bid from Zijin at a 6 00:00:12,760 --> 00:00:15,320 higher price and fast. I'm keen to explore that with 7 00:00:15,320 --> 00:00:18,640 you today mate. Plus why we think Regis won't 8 00:00:18,640 --> 00:00:21,640 buy Ravenswood Asterisk mostly depends on price. 9 00:00:21,960 --> 00:00:23,960 To kick things off mate. We've had a really interesting 10 00:00:23,960 --> 00:00:26,040 few days reading all of the emails that have come our way. 11 00:00:27,480 --> 00:00:29,760 I haven't replied to them all yet, but I know that you have 12 00:00:29,880 --> 00:00:31,800 and. I can't say they have yet. 13 00:00:31,800 --> 00:00:34,160 So thanks a bunch of the people that reached out. 14 00:00:34,160 --> 00:00:39,240 We added phenomenal feedback and we thought we'd we thought we'd 15 00:00:39,240 --> 00:00:41,800 run through a couple of the best replies, the things that made us 16 00:00:41,800 --> 00:00:43,800 laugh a little bit. There was some some wicked 17 00:00:43,800 --> 00:00:47,120 responses, some great ideas of what we can think about going 18 00:00:47,120 --> 00:00:50,640 forward and a few great one liners in there. 19 00:00:50,640 --> 00:00:52,160 So let's let's just bounce off each other this. 20 00:00:52,160 --> 00:00:54,440 Is this is the one liners that you've you've cut out here, 21 00:00:54,440 --> 00:00:56,480 you've ignored all of the feedback, but you've just 22 00:00:56,480 --> 00:00:59,040 concluded the one liners, the zingers from the money miners. 23 00:00:59,200 --> 00:01:01,080 Massive appreciation for sending through your thoughts and 24 00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:03,480 comments. It means a lot to know that that 25 00:01:03,600 --> 00:01:07,040 yeah, the the listeners you guys are still invested in in the 26 00:01:07,040 --> 00:01:09,320 future of of of money of mine. And that certainly came across 27 00:01:09,320 --> 00:01:11,200 in those emails. But I'm I'm intrigued in these, 28 00:01:11,560 --> 00:01:12,760 these one liners, mate, what have we got? 29 00:01:13,240 --> 00:01:14,000 All right. Here we go. 30 00:01:14,000 --> 00:01:18,360 I'll start us off so talking about our Abbott dour Thursday 31 00:01:18,360 --> 00:01:19,000 episode. Mate. 32 00:01:19,000 --> 00:01:21,920 Saw your episode today. It was like watching 2 guys 33 00:01:21,960 --> 00:01:23,680 whose 20 year old dog had just died. 34 00:01:24,040 --> 00:01:26,840 Pretty grim stuff. Oh, I got one for you. 35 00:01:27,240 --> 00:01:29,800 If Black Sabbath can break up and reunite, maybe you guys will 36 00:01:29,800 --> 00:01:31,320 too. Someday, who knows? 37 00:01:32,720 --> 00:01:35,040 Who knows? I saw the same actually about 38 00:01:35,160 --> 00:01:36,560 wasn't wasn't about Black Sabbath. 39 00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:37,360 Maybe. Maybe you've. 40 00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:38,000 Got it. Might be coming. 41 00:01:38,080 --> 00:01:39,320 It might be coming. Hold your breath. 42 00:01:39,360 --> 00:01:44,080 All right, so to give you context on how big a fan I am, I 43 00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:46,560 was listening to your episode on the worst mining deals so 44 00:01:46,560 --> 00:01:51,240 intently in my car that I missed my turn off by 25 kilometers. 45 00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:54,600 Didn't realize for 25 guys. You might need to use your phone 46 00:01:54,600 --> 00:01:57,520 or your sat NAV for that, but we are thrilled that we could be so 47 00:01:57,520 --> 00:01:59,600 engaging in a podcast. Unreal. 48 00:01:59,960 --> 00:02:02,680 All right, go on for you mate. I was keen to hear more on the 49 00:02:02,680 --> 00:02:04,680 battlefield, Lenora and the activist interview about 50 00:02:04,680 --> 00:02:07,680 Abyssinian medals and they got completely pulled. 51 00:02:07,680 --> 00:02:09,080 I listened to it twice before it vanished. 52 00:02:09,080 --> 00:02:11,560 I still remember driving down the street in Vancouver nearly 53 00:02:11,560 --> 00:02:13,320 having a car accident because I was so locked in. 54 00:02:13,800 --> 00:02:15,840 Maybe one day we'll bring that one back. 55 00:02:15,840 --> 00:02:18,560 I don't know, JD. Actually, no, it's deleted 56 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:22,280 forever unfortunately. It's out of our hands, but maybe 57 00:02:22,280 --> 00:02:25,760 we can tell a story one day. Last but not least, money 58 00:02:25,760 --> 00:02:29,480 miners. Imagine how much ACDC would have 59 00:02:29,480 --> 00:02:33,360 wanted to quit when Bond Scott died and yet they came back even 60 00:02:33,360 --> 00:02:36,200 better with the new guy. It's fantastic. 61 00:02:36,200 --> 00:02:41,280 I never thought we would get mentioned or compared to a CDCI. 62 00:02:41,280 --> 00:02:44,320 Didn't think those sort of words went in the same sentence mate. 63 00:02:44,320 --> 00:02:47,720 But lo and behold, lo and behold, us and ACDC being 64 00:02:47,720 --> 00:02:49,840 compared. Thanks a lot to all the money 65 00:02:49,840 --> 00:02:52,280 miners for getting in touch with us, sharing your feedback. 66 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:54,840 We haven't got back to all of it because it's been a complete 67 00:02:54,840 --> 00:02:57,960 mountain, but we will get there. Every day I say I'll be happy if 68 00:02:57,960 --> 00:03:02,040 I end my day with like, no, no emails sending in my inbox. 69 00:03:02,040 --> 00:03:04,800 And it just gets bigger. But we'll get there, mate. 70 00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:06,320 We'll get there. Those messages from the money 71 00:03:06,320 --> 00:03:08,000 miners, they've brought in the mood here and they've, they've 72 00:03:08,000 --> 00:03:10,360 given me some energy, which I didn't, I didn't think it was 73 00:03:10,360 --> 00:03:13,480 possible to get that energy in, in this period of time, JD. 74 00:03:13,560 --> 00:03:16,360 But it's it's very relevant because I've actually prepared a 75 00:03:16,360 --> 00:03:18,560 quiz for you today. Have you? 76 00:03:18,960 --> 00:03:21,040 I have mate, no pressure, but your reputation's on the line. 77 00:03:21,040 --> 00:03:23,600 Are you ready? Question one who's building 78 00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:25,880 state-of-the-art hybrid power stations for enormous mine sites 79 00:03:25,880 --> 00:03:28,400 all over the world? Cross boundary energy is the 80 00:03:28,400 --> 00:03:30,320 only name that comes. Correct question two. 81 00:03:30,320 --> 00:03:32,640 Who actually owns and operates them so the mining company 82 00:03:32,640 --> 00:03:35,720 doesn't have to lift a finger. Steel cross boundary. 83 00:03:36,120 --> 00:03:37,720 He's on fire. Final question, who's helping 84 00:03:37,720 --> 00:03:42,200 mines cut diesel, cut costs and cut emissions, all without 85 00:03:42,200 --> 00:03:43,600 CapEx? That's an easy one mate. 86 00:03:43,600 --> 00:03:46,040 Cross boundary energy. Clean sweep mate, want to know 87 00:03:46,040 --> 00:03:48,240 what you win? Hopefully their phone number 88 00:03:48,240 --> 00:03:50,280 mate. If you're if you're running or 89 00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:52,760 building a mine and want lower energy deals without building 90 00:03:53,000 --> 00:03:55,560 your own bloody power plant, talk to Tim Taylor across 91 00:03:55,560 --> 00:03:58,440 Boundary Energy. That's the answer every time. 92 00:03:58,480 --> 00:04:01,000 Phone number and show notes. Go cross boundary energy. 93 00:04:01,400 --> 00:04:03,440 All right, mate. Xanadu copped a beer. 94 00:04:03,440 --> 00:04:05,120 I think up front. We've got to do a Ding, Ding, 95 00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:08,160 Ding Jada, you and I have been shareholders for best past six 96 00:04:08,160 --> 00:04:09,760 months, I want to say in this stock so. 97 00:04:09,880 --> 00:04:10,800 Something about that since better. 98 00:04:10,800 --> 00:04:12,640 To disclose that up front. Yeah, we, we spoke about this 99 00:04:12,640 --> 00:04:16,680 one about 6 odd months ago and it intrigued us so much, so much 100 00:04:16,680 --> 00:04:19,640 that a little while after that we decided to, to pick up some 101 00:04:19,640 --> 00:04:21,440 shares. So yes, we're talking our own 102 00:04:21,440 --> 00:04:24,040 book, but we think it's super relevant for the money miners 103 00:04:24,040 --> 00:04:26,600 and it is a fascinating story. We're going to try answer the 104 00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:30,360 question, will there be a bidding war at Xanadu? 105 00:04:30,360 --> 00:04:34,680 It's currently trading above bid price, which we'll get into and 106 00:04:34,680 --> 00:04:36,800 there are some some juicy details to this one mate. 107 00:04:36,800 --> 00:04:39,640 What's, what's the one-on-one? You know, fast, fast background 108 00:04:39,640 --> 00:04:41,040 on what's going on here, mate. All right. 109 00:04:41,040 --> 00:04:46,120 In in a nutshell, Xanadu holds a stake in a huge undeveloped 110 00:04:46,240 --> 00:04:49,840 copper gold project in Mongolia. The asset is called Karmagtai. 111 00:04:50,320 --> 00:04:53,560 Now the CapEx is close to US 900 million. 112 00:04:53,560 --> 00:04:55,920 That's the important detail to know because that has always 113 00:04:55,920 --> 00:04:59,200 been the impediment for Xanadu to develop this asset. 114 00:04:59,200 --> 00:05:02,240 Now they have had a bit of a relationship forming with Siege 115 00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:06,160 in over time. Xanadu owns about 38% of this 116 00:05:06,160 --> 00:05:10,640 big project with our great friends in China, Z Gin. 117 00:05:10,680 --> 00:05:14,800 So everyone long suspected Z Gin of being the ultimate owners of 118 00:05:14,920 --> 00:05:17,200 this one, and the company have made no secret that they've 119 00:05:17,200 --> 00:05:20,200 tried to get a deal done to that end in recent times. 120 00:05:20,840 --> 00:05:23,720 And effectively over the the course of history, there's a few 121 00:05:23,720 --> 00:05:25,720 different deal structure options. 122 00:05:25,880 --> 00:05:29,880 It's all coalesced in, in what was briefly an exclusivity 123 00:05:29,880 --> 00:05:33,880 period for Z Gin last month. That exclusivity actually 124 00:05:33,880 --> 00:05:36,680 lapsed. And then, you know, we, we, we 125 00:05:37,080 --> 00:05:40,840 kind of woke up, was it yesterday And Xanadu copped an 8 126 00:05:40,880 --> 00:05:43,760 cent bead not from ZZ in very interestingly. 127 00:05:43,840 --> 00:05:46,640 Yeah, fascinating. So the the bead itself, we're 128 00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:49,880 just churning away, sitting in the office here drumming up 129 00:05:49,880 --> 00:05:52,320 content for the Director Special newsletter. 130 00:05:52,320 --> 00:05:53,760 It's early. Sign up if you're not already, 131 00:05:53,760 --> 00:05:56,360 by the way, get. On in the show notes and then we 132 00:05:56,360 --> 00:05:59,480 see it recommended 8 cent cash offer. 133 00:05:59,480 --> 00:06:03,440 Now, like you mentioned that we'd long been suspecting a bid, 134 00:06:03,760 --> 00:06:07,160 but we were a bit surprised in the form that it took. 135 00:06:07,160 --> 00:06:09,600 So like I said, Colin Moore head the CEO of the company and the 136 00:06:09,600 --> 00:06:11,320 whole company have been working pretty hard. 137 00:06:11,320 --> 00:06:13,960 They've had webinars, they've had calls they've mentioned in 138 00:06:13,960 --> 00:06:16,400 countless presentations over recent months. 139 00:06:16,560 --> 00:06:20,520 Now Z Gen. was the glaringly obvious partner to this. 140 00:06:20,520 --> 00:06:24,000 So long behold, we crank open this announcement that we see 141 00:06:24,000 --> 00:06:29,080 and Xanadu and Bastian have entered into a agreement. 142 00:06:29,080 --> 00:06:32,240 My first thoughts mate, Who the hell are Bastian? 143 00:06:33,160 --> 00:06:35,160 Second thoughts, which I thought right after that. 144 00:06:35,560 --> 00:06:37,080 You bloody beauty. We could be on for some 145 00:06:37,080 --> 00:06:39,520 competition here mate. I think we got lucky to be 146 00:06:39,520 --> 00:06:41,840 honest with you, mate, because like, no, we've talked about 147 00:06:41,840 --> 00:06:44,280 this before, but no one ever makes real money trying to 148 00:06:44,280 --> 00:06:46,600 predict an M and a corporate transaction. 149 00:06:46,600 --> 00:06:48,160 And we're like reading the tea leaves a bit. 150 00:06:48,160 --> 00:06:50,280 Thinking was pretty, everything was transparent. 151 00:06:50,280 --> 00:06:51,720 It was like, yeah, these are all the dates. 152 00:06:51,720 --> 00:06:53,920 These are the options. We're like, it just makes sense 153 00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:55,240 for the agent to buy this. So we that's. 154 00:06:55,240 --> 00:06:56,800 The thing there was a timeline on, Yeah. 155 00:06:56,800 --> 00:06:59,880 And that was the the only reason in what you, yeah, can otherwise 156 00:06:59,880 --> 00:07:02,320 describe as a pretty fruitless strategy, at least for a punter. 157 00:07:02,360 --> 00:07:04,840 Totally and there was it was a non controlling or became 158 00:07:05,160 --> 00:07:06,400 effectively like non controlling interest. 159 00:07:06,400 --> 00:07:08,440 So we sort of you often get screwed over in those 160 00:07:08,440 --> 00:07:10,800 situations. And we, we also thought, I don't 161 00:07:10,800 --> 00:07:15,040 know if there's actually any like credible other party 162 00:07:15,440 --> 00:07:18,120 bidding here or, or, or putting forward a credible funding 163 00:07:18,120 --> 00:07:20,160 option. So when we saw it was Bastion, 164 00:07:20,560 --> 00:07:23,080 well, like, yes, there's there's someone else here. 165 00:07:23,400 --> 00:07:26,560 This is, this is interesting. But yeah, I I was stoked to say 166 00:07:26,560 --> 00:07:27,760 that. Yeah, absolutely, mate. 167 00:07:27,760 --> 00:07:31,560 So clearly we've got to unpack a few more details in what came 168 00:07:31,560 --> 00:07:34,320 out. So cash offer for $0.08. 169 00:07:34,320 --> 00:07:36,640 Now there is quite a bit more meat on the bone here. 170 00:07:37,160 --> 00:07:40,080 You've got Xanadu, the directors in the company recommending 171 00:07:40,080 --> 00:07:43,680 shareholders accept this. Then you've got Bastian, which 172 00:07:43,680 --> 00:07:47,920 is a consortium of a couple parties, excuse me, subscribing 173 00:07:47,920 --> 00:07:52,120 for shares at six cents. Now 8 cents bid, six cents is 174 00:07:52,120 --> 00:07:53,600 what they're subscribing for shares at. 175 00:07:53,840 --> 00:07:56,680 And it's not just a completely paltry amount, $17 million 176 00:07:56,680 --> 00:07:58,480 worth. Now, as I mentioned, a 177 00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:02,560 consortium that is made-up of this group called Peru, which is 178 00:08:02,560 --> 00:08:08,720 Singapore based, and Xanadu director by the name of Ganbaya. 179 00:08:08,720 --> 00:08:12,880 Now, Ganbaya is a very important character in this whole 180 00:08:12,880 --> 00:08:17,760 narrative because he also owns what is a 13.5% stake in the 181 00:08:17,760 --> 00:08:21,040 project. Very, very important detail back 182 00:08:21,040 --> 00:08:23,920 to the placement. So there's a catch to that. 183 00:08:23,920 --> 00:08:27,480 And what you start to uncover as you read more about this deal, 184 00:08:27,480 --> 00:08:30,960 right, is that they're doing everything they can to prompt 185 00:08:31,040 --> 00:08:33,600 Zijin to get the work, to get to work. 186 00:08:33,640 --> 00:08:37,480 And Zijin have been dragging their feet as we just described. 187 00:08:38,240 --> 00:08:41,200 Siegen have for the longest period thought they're the only 188 00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:43,080 natural buyers. They already own a big stake in 189 00:08:43,080 --> 00:08:45,680 this. It's Mongolia has sort of 190 00:08:46,280 --> 00:08:48,920 attributes that make it more appealing to a Chinese buyer, 191 00:08:48,920 --> 00:08:52,560 all these sorts of things. Now, I think the market as well 192 00:08:52,560 --> 00:08:55,680 as us thought best case Siegen come in and, you know, we'd 193 00:08:55,680 --> 00:08:57,360 kicked about this idea about maybe a month ago. 194 00:08:57,840 --> 00:09:00,080 Eight cents, maybe 88 and a half cents if we're lucky. 195 00:09:00,680 --> 00:09:02,040 But we'll see what sort of happens. 196 00:09:02,040 --> 00:09:03,640 We didn't really think there was a. 197 00:09:04,040 --> 00:09:05,880 Logical Plan B what's your Plan B? 198 00:09:05,880 --> 00:09:06,960 Yeah. We actually thought that Plan B 199 00:09:06,960 --> 00:09:10,600 was the put option and thought, OK, if worst case scenarios, 25% 200 00:09:10,880 --> 00:09:13,600 carried interest, whatever, like that's, that's, that's like can 201 00:09:13,600 --> 00:09:15,720 live with that feels like a downside somewhat, you know, 202 00:09:15,760 --> 00:09:19,120 protected, Yeah, but didn't, didn't think there was a 203 00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:21,120 credible Plan B of another, another party. 204 00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:24,000 But it is interesting, right? The way it's kind of zigging was 205 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:28,600 had exclusivity because they had tended an NBIO, which the board 206 00:09:28,600 --> 00:09:33,480 of Xanadu deemed to be a, a a superior proposal to what the, 207 00:09:33,680 --> 00:09:36,880 you know, the alternative was going to be the the 25% put 208 00:09:36,880 --> 00:09:39,800 option would have been shareholders were asked to to go 209 00:09:39,800 --> 00:09:41,240 to go and go and vote, vote on that. 210 00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:46,720 But instead they deferred that let gave gave CGN exclusivity. 211 00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:49,200 And clearly whatever number CGN put it put on the table in that 212 00:09:49,200 --> 00:09:51,920 NBIO, they backed out of it. And I think they were just kind 213 00:09:51,920 --> 00:09:54,560 of who knows, right? But it's, it's, it's, it's 214 00:09:54,560 --> 00:09:57,080 potential that they just played hardball, realised they've got 215 00:09:57,080 --> 00:09:58,440 all the power in the negotiating position. 216 00:09:59,160 --> 00:10:00,240 They're exclusive to your lapses. 217 00:10:00,400 --> 00:10:03,680 Then all of a sudden that was actually the, the, the Plan B we 218 00:10:03,680 --> 00:10:05,800 didn't know about all along comes the party. 219 00:10:05,800 --> 00:10:08,160 And there's real pressure on Zijin here because of that 220 00:10:08,160 --> 00:10:09,520 placement. Like you talked about that 221 00:10:09,720 --> 00:10:12,280 placement of 70 million bucks at six cents. 222 00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:15,200 Now Ziji's got to make their mind up. 223 00:10:15,200 --> 00:10:18,040 Do they, do they, do they want more ownership at, at, at a, at 224 00:10:18,040 --> 00:10:19,600 a price that's, you know, reasonable or do they not? 225 00:10:19,600 --> 00:10:22,000 And if they, they do, they're going to have to pay north of 226 00:10:22,040 --> 00:10:25,880 north of the $0.08, which means that on that 70 million bucks of 227 00:10:25,880 --> 00:10:28,280 cash that's going to be put into the pro forma, they might be 228 00:10:28,280 --> 00:10:31,000 having to pay like 25,000,000 bucks for that in terms of, you 229 00:10:31,000 --> 00:10:34,520 know, what they actually pay. So their incentive to put 230 00:10:34,520 --> 00:10:38,160 forward a more compelling bid is only up in like is they let's 231 00:10:38,160 --> 00:10:41,600 say you know, at least 7,000,000 bucks if they submit that offer 232 00:10:41,600 --> 00:10:44,080 before the 26th of May, which is only 6 days away. 233 00:10:44,640 --> 00:10:48,240 If they submit an offer before then, then and and it seemed to 234 00:10:48,240 --> 00:10:53,080 be a superior proposal and the the board recommends it and 235 00:10:53,080 --> 00:10:55,920 Bastian doesn't exercise their matching right, then all of a 236 00:10:55,920 --> 00:10:59,720 sudden CGM will save 7,000,000 bucks. 237 00:10:59,760 --> 00:11:02,120 That's a decent enough incentive for them to come to the party. 238 00:11:02,160 --> 00:11:04,400 Hence why we're kind of yeah, really interested in in how the 239 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:07,200 next six days plays out. Now, I don't think we have like 240 00:11:07,280 --> 00:11:10,360 stars in our eyes about what what value can be really 241 00:11:10,360 --> 00:11:12,480 attained here because everything about this doesn't look like 242 00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:14,080 Bastian wants to enter a bidding war. 243 00:11:14,640 --> 00:11:17,920 It just looks to me like Bastian wants XI Jin to pay a fair bit 244 00:11:17,920 --> 00:11:20,400 more than they, you know, currently being willing to. 245 00:11:20,560 --> 00:11:23,520 And that's where the other part of the ownership that Ganbaya, 246 00:11:23,520 --> 00:11:27,480 that director comes into play because there is potential if 247 00:11:27,560 --> 00:11:33,320 Xanadu goes into another party's hands, IE Ganbaya, that when you 248 00:11:33,320 --> 00:11:37,000 take into account his ownership interest in the project outside 249 00:11:37,360 --> 00:11:41,280 of this sort of joint venture between XI Jin and Xanadu, that 250 00:11:41,280 --> 00:11:45,800 he would have a bigger stake. He and his, you know, partners 251 00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:49,640 in the in the consortium would have a bigger stake than Seijin 252 00:11:49,840 --> 00:11:51,600 and that is a key, key detail here. 253 00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:55,240 Totally, there's a lot more negotiating leverage that is is 254 00:11:55,240 --> 00:11:58,120 concentrated with Gumbaya in that case. 255 00:11:58,160 --> 00:12:00,920 And if Seijin really wanted to consolidate the, you know, full 256 00:12:00,920 --> 00:12:03,400 ownership of the project laid down the track or or at least as 257 00:12:03,400 --> 00:12:06,960 much as they can without government, then then Gumbaya 258 00:12:06,960 --> 00:12:10,000 holds a lot more power and cards in all of that. 259 00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:14,440 And, and right now what, what, what could they feasibly get get 260 00:12:14,440 --> 00:12:19,360 away with paying well at 8.3 cents, That's where Bastion kind 261 00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:22,600 of starts to, to, to actually make money otherwise. 262 00:12:23,680 --> 00:12:26,920 So I think any, any offer from Zegen that like, that's the 263 00:12:26,920 --> 00:12:29,360 absolute sort of starting point. But depending on the leverage 264 00:12:29,360 --> 00:12:32,280 that can be, you know, held between Gabby are because what 265 00:12:32,320 --> 00:12:36,520 Zegen wouldn't want to do is let, let let Bastion, you know, 266 00:12:36,960 --> 00:12:40,400 acquire this stake in, in the, in the project by acquiring 267 00:12:40,400 --> 00:12:43,080 Xanadu. And then all of a sudden you 268 00:12:43,080 --> 00:12:45,320 have to pay like 15 cents instead of $0.10 equivalent for 269 00:12:45,320 --> 00:12:46,480 the entire thing. So. 270 00:12:46,720 --> 00:12:49,400 And what what you're sort of describing there is the, the 271 00:12:49,440 --> 00:12:52,320 optionality at play here for shareholders who would go onto 272 00:12:52,320 --> 00:12:54,040 the market and pick up these shares, right? 273 00:12:54,040 --> 00:12:57,920 So after the deal got announced yesterday, we start seeing it 274 00:12:57,920 --> 00:13:01,760 trade in the high sevens, you know, below the the bid. 275 00:13:01,760 --> 00:13:05,920 But people aren't paying upfront over expecting anything to come 276 00:13:05,920 --> 00:13:07,360 through. And then that changes today. 277 00:13:07,360 --> 00:13:10,520 Clearly some people have cottoned on to say, hey, we have 278 00:13:10,520 --> 00:13:12,280 sort of solid footing at 8 cents. 279 00:13:12,360 --> 00:13:16,520 Yeah, but but we might get 8 and half, we might get 9. 280 00:13:16,520 --> 00:13:19,600 Whatever we we can, you know, weigh those probabilities 281 00:13:19,600 --> 00:13:21,240 against each other. Whatever you might think it is, 282 00:13:21,240 --> 00:13:23,720 it's pretty hard to pick into the mind of what Z gin Yeah, but 283 00:13:23,800 --> 00:13:27,480 you've got your downside in the sense protected and that's the, 284 00:13:27,480 --> 00:13:30,000 that's the base you've got. That's the that's the downside. 285 00:13:30,160 --> 00:13:32,240 You're not losing an awful lot of money if you can pick them up 286 00:13:32,560 --> 00:13:35,880 like some shareholders were yesterday at 7.67.7. 287 00:13:36,360 --> 00:13:37,360 Awesome. Your beauty, right? 288 00:13:37,640 --> 00:13:38,680 Totally. Yeah, totally. 289 00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:42,920 Yeah, it, it doesn't look like there's too much risk of of deal 290 00:13:42,920 --> 00:13:46,120 failure in the sense of invest in not getting 50.1 acceptances, 291 00:13:46,120 --> 00:13:48,040 I think becomes unconditional at that point. 292 00:13:48,040 --> 00:13:51,080 So I do think deal risk is actually pretty low here on the 293 00:13:51,080 --> 00:13:56,240 balance of probabilities. The the asymmetry is skewed dish 294 00:13:56,240 --> 00:13:58,440 to the upside. However, I wouldn't get carried 295 00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:00,080 away with like a bidding war. I think there's like, you know, 296 00:14:00,360 --> 00:14:01,960 one more bid. Is it $0.09? 297 00:14:01,960 --> 00:14:02,880 Is it $0.10? I don't know. 298 00:14:02,880 --> 00:14:05,240 I don't know what gets the deal done, but I I'm, I'm hopeful as 299 00:14:05,240 --> 00:14:07,840 a shareholder. I'm still still yes haven't 300 00:14:07,840 --> 00:14:09,560 haven't sold my stake. Yeah, exactly. 301 00:14:09,560 --> 00:14:12,960 I mean credit to the to the team at Xanadu, they they managed to 302 00:14:12,960 --> 00:14:15,080 drum up interest where most people thought there there 303 00:14:15,080 --> 00:14:18,200 wasn't an awful lot of interest. So I came to see how it kind of 304 00:14:18,680 --> 00:14:21,680 plays out from here. But it's a it's an interesting 305 00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:25,000 one. Your, your talking point on how 306 00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:28,720 solid is the, the deal is an interesting one because shortly 307 00:14:28,720 --> 00:14:31,280 after we realized it wasn't CGN and it was someone else who were 308 00:14:31,280 --> 00:14:33,640 like, well, clearly they're trying to prompt CGN to come in. 309 00:14:33,640 --> 00:14:37,120 So like, is this someone that's just come in randomly trying to 310 00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:38,440 product? Like, are they solid? 311 00:14:38,440 --> 00:14:39,840 You know, do they have a bit on them? 312 00:14:39,840 --> 00:14:43,200 And yeah, long behold, they do. So that's the relief, Yeah, I 313 00:14:43,520 --> 00:14:46,320 think we got lucky, JD, but. I think we got more than lucky 314 00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:47,840 mate count now. Lucky stars. 315 00:14:49,080 --> 00:14:50,600 Awesome, that was really interesting mate. 316 00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:54,440 So now JD, the the Billion Dollar Man, Mr. Derek heard of 317 00:14:54,440 --> 00:14:56,800 Sandvik ground support. He sat down with us last week 318 00:14:56,800 --> 00:14:58,920 and he told us boatloads about ground support. 319 00:14:58,920 --> 00:15:02,240 We're pumped to to share a bunch of these kind of one minute 320 00:15:02,240 --> 00:15:04,520 snippets from the combo that we had with the Billion Dollar Man 321 00:15:04,520 --> 00:15:07,680 over the coming weeks, starting with this, how has ground 322 00:15:07,680 --> 00:15:11,680 support changed over like the the last 20 years for example? 323 00:15:12,560 --> 00:15:15,680 Some people might say not much at the end of the day because it 324 00:15:15,680 --> 00:15:19,680 looks like a a steel bolt or a splitty or a friction bolt. 325 00:15:19,680 --> 00:15:21,400 Depends if you know what you call it sort of thing. 326 00:15:21,400 --> 00:15:25,360 But they've been around forever and a day because they're a good 327 00:15:25,360 --> 00:15:27,240 product at the end of the day and they they do their job. 328 00:15:27,600 --> 00:15:32,440 But there's been a lot of evolution on sort of the dynamic 329 00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:35,480 capability of products, you know, that can hold more 330 00:15:35,480 --> 00:15:38,920 capacity, more energy. Again, as these conditions 331 00:15:38,920 --> 00:15:41,800 become more challenging, you know, there's more requirements 332 00:15:41,800 --> 00:15:45,240 for, you know, higher capacity products at the end of the day. 333 00:15:45,800 --> 00:15:48,200 The other thing that that's probably changed over the years 334 00:15:48,200 --> 00:15:52,120 is the, the frequency of use probably ground support probably 335 00:15:52,120 --> 00:15:54,880 was a almost an afterthought, you know, 20-30 years ago. 336 00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:58,240 Now it's a critical as part of the development cycle, you know, 337 00:15:58,240 --> 00:16:00,480 to provide again, provide that safe working environment. 338 00:16:01,160 --> 00:16:03,760 Thank you, Derek, Kurt and Sandvik Ground support. 339 00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:06,240 Thanks Wiser, you know he was in, he started his career in 340 00:16:06,240 --> 00:16:07,520 R&D. That's why he cares so much 341 00:16:07,520 --> 00:16:08,520 about how things have changed over. 342 00:16:08,520 --> 00:16:10,200 Time I did. It was a pleasure to learn a lot 343 00:16:10,200 --> 00:16:11,160 from Derek. Thank you. 344 00:16:12,520 --> 00:16:17,400 And to round out JD, we actually had a chinwag about Ravenswood. 345 00:16:17,800 --> 00:16:19,760 We've recorded it the same days we did our Lion Town episode, 346 00:16:19,760 --> 00:16:23,440 but because we chose to include that kind of post episode RIP, 347 00:16:24,600 --> 00:16:26,840 we just wanted to make the podcast a realistic time to 348 00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:29,360 consume. And we've reserved it to to 349 00:16:29,360 --> 00:16:31,360 Chuck. And today it's still just as 350 00:16:31,360 --> 00:16:33,240 relevant. Nothing has changed since, but 351 00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:36,480 we're going to have a good yarn about why Regis isn't going to 352 00:16:36,480 --> 00:16:38,160 buy Ravenswood. No less relevant. 353 00:16:38,200 --> 00:16:40,840 Here we go. Who's going to buy Ravenswood? 354 00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:42,920 Well, this is, this has been like one of the more advertised 355 00:16:42,920 --> 00:16:46,520 sales processors out there, especially in the data room 356 00:16:46,520 --> 00:16:47,520 column. There's not much going on on 357 00:16:47,520 --> 00:16:49,280 sales price fronts. So you got to, you got to write 358 00:16:49,280 --> 00:16:51,880 articles about something. And Ravenswood, Ravenswood's 359 00:16:51,880 --> 00:16:53,840 gotten a fair bit of attention, but Ravenswood gold mine in 360 00:16:53,840 --> 00:16:57,200 Queensland, it produces about 200,000 ounces of gold annually. 361 00:16:57,200 --> 00:17:01,360 It's on the market and, and all of the, the articles, they kind 362 00:17:01,360 --> 00:17:04,079 of advertise this gold mine as A2, a $2 billion price tag 363 00:17:04,079 --> 00:17:07,040 grant. Now this, this mine is jointly 364 00:17:07,040 --> 00:17:12,599 owned by EMR Capital and Golden Energy and Resources, which is 365 00:17:12,599 --> 00:17:16,280 called Gear often when it's referred to EMR Capital, they're 366 00:17:16,359 --> 00:17:20,200 obviously private equity firm. You've spoken with Owen on the 367 00:17:20,200 --> 00:17:23,839 podcast in the past, JD and then you've got Gear now that is a 368 00:17:23,839 --> 00:17:27,000 majority owned by Indonesia's Bujaya family. 369 00:17:27,599 --> 00:17:30,920 They, they do a lot in coal and see them kind of with Latimore's 370 00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:32,800 and and Stanmore and all those sorts of things. 371 00:17:32,800 --> 00:17:38,080 So anyway, EMR and Gear acquired Ravenswood in 2020. 372 00:17:38,400 --> 00:17:42,000 The up to 300 million bucks was the price tag, 100 million of 373 00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:45,760 that was was upfront and 300 and the remaining 200 million was 374 00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:49,120 kind of contingent. That's largely all all paid or 375 00:17:49,120 --> 00:17:52,440 payable. Since then they've invested a 376 00:17:52,440 --> 00:17:55,040 fair bit into Ravens. What a lot of capital is going 377 00:17:55,040 --> 00:17:58,680 in here. They've reportedly extended the 378 00:17:58,680 --> 00:18:02,280 mines life by 15 years to 2022. I say reportedly because there's 379 00:18:02,280 --> 00:18:04,840 a few asterisks to that extension, which I will get to 380 00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:08,760 this is a a sale process that has been publicly advertised 381 00:18:08,760 --> 00:18:11,600 since November last year. That was six months ago. 382 00:18:11,600 --> 00:18:14,680 That's that's like quite a long time to be banging on about our 383 00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:17,400 sales process with lots of articles in data room. 384 00:18:17,800 --> 00:18:20,920 And over that time, we've watched the bidding pool narrow 385 00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:23,520 down in all of the columns to now it's just two bidders left 386 00:18:24,280 --> 00:18:25,480 early days. There were tons of potential 387 00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:26,920 bidders like named in these articles. 388 00:18:27,360 --> 00:18:28,760 Everyone was saying Capricorn, Gold, Rd. 389 00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:30,440 Remelius, Evolution, dot, like you name it. 390 00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:32,920 Every every mid tier was always kind of like reference with a 391 00:18:32,920 --> 00:18:34,920 bunch of Chinese, a bunch of Indonesian capital, all that 392 00:18:34,920 --> 00:18:36,960 sort of stuff. And now we've got just two names 393 00:18:37,680 --> 00:18:41,240 and final bids are due next week. 394 00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:45,880 The only two contenders apparently left ASX listed Regis 395 00:18:45,880 --> 00:18:49,040 Resources and Indonesia's United Tractors. 396 00:18:49,480 --> 00:18:51,520 A good set name. It's funny. 397 00:18:51,960 --> 00:18:53,120 United Tractors. Yeah. 398 00:18:54,880 --> 00:18:58,240 I want to talk about some of the maybe not so obvious elements to 399 00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:02,480 to this sale process if you're interested in reading kind of 400 00:19:02,800 --> 00:19:05,360 past the press. Spell them out mate. 401 00:19:05,440 --> 00:19:06,720 What are? What are the details you can to 402 00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:10,240 discuss? Firstly, this is, this is a sale 403 00:19:10,240 --> 00:19:14,320 process from private equity and you know my golden rule when it 404 00:19:14,320 --> 00:19:16,680 comes to sales processes from private equity. 405 00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:19,280 JD. Never forget mate, never buy the 406 00:19:19,280 --> 00:19:21,840 bags of PE. Never buy private equity bags. 407 00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:27,440 Like I, yeah, I just, we private equity is remarkably good at 408 00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:29,640 dressing things up a lot better than they are. 409 00:19:29,760 --> 00:19:33,600 And because they're auctions, like they're often, you know, 410 00:19:33,600 --> 00:19:34,960 competitive. There's a lot of like those 411 00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:37,600 dynamics where you dress something up to be really, 412 00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:39,640 really good and then maybe in the long run, it might actually 413 00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:42,160 turn out to not be as good. And because it was an auction or 414 00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:43,760 a sales process, it's competitive. 415 00:19:44,040 --> 00:19:45,200 Everyone really, really wants it. 416 00:19:45,200 --> 00:19:47,000 And maybe a couple of people need it and they bid and they 417 00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:48,680 aren't bid. And it's private equity guys. 418 00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:50,880 They're pretty damn good at kind of harnessing the competitive 419 00:19:50,880 --> 00:19:54,440 attention and, and often you don't quite realize, you know, 420 00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:59,320 what you might have truly bought until a year or so later. 421 00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:02,680 And then the reality is, you know, some of the policies have 422 00:20:02,680 --> 00:20:04,840 washed off a little bit, But that's a generalization. 423 00:20:04,840 --> 00:20:06,920 It's not to say you can't make money buying off private equity. 424 00:20:06,920 --> 00:20:08,920 And plenty of people will point to plenty of examples where 425 00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:11,320 people have made lots of money buying off private equity. 426 00:20:11,320 --> 00:20:14,720 But in general, that's like a, a blanket kind of, you know, 427 00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:16,200 heuristic. I I roll with. 428 00:20:16,360 --> 00:20:19,920 To to to go specific now on on Ravenswood, spell out some of 429 00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:22,480 the the key risks as you kind of see. 430 00:20:22,480 --> 00:20:26,280 Them well, well, even even a step before that, the 431 00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:27,800 generalization is it's going to be competitive. 432 00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:30,120 This is different. This isn't competitive. 433 00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:35,880 You've got 2 two parties left in a sales process submitting final 434 00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:37,480 bids. Like that's kind of crazy to me. 435 00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:40,560 So in in general, the competitive nature might lead 436 00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:42,360 people to overpaying for something that is not going to 437 00:20:42,360 --> 00:20:43,680 turn out to be as good as you think it is. 438 00:20:44,080 --> 00:20:45,880 This one, it might not have the same competitive tension. 439 00:20:45,880 --> 00:20:48,160 So I. And even even 2 might not be 440 00:20:48,160 --> 00:20:50,240 what it might first appear to people on the outside. 441 00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:53,440 One could just be hanging in to the end with a with a lowball as 442 00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:55,000 well. So it's not as if you've got 2 443 00:20:55,280 --> 00:20:57,320 eager buyers. But I think there could be none 444 00:20:57,440 --> 00:21:01,680 like, but yeah, absolutely, that's a real potential. 445 00:21:03,080 --> 00:21:06,160 So the other point too is there's some critical risks that 446 00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:08,720 you you kind of need to accept as a bidder in this sale 447 00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:11,800 process. What's being, you know, talked 448 00:21:11,800 --> 00:21:14,040 about or what what's kind of come out in the price in the 449 00:21:14,040 --> 00:21:16,280 duration of the sale process? Why there are only two it is 450 00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:18,680 left. Well, there's a very substantial 451 00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:20,080 out of the money hedge book in place here. 452 00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:24,600 Bidders, whoever buys Ravenswood has to assume that hedge book or 453 00:21:24,960 --> 00:21:28,120 maybe they could alternatively stump up their own funding to to 454 00:21:28,120 --> 00:21:29,960 close it out, restructure it, whatever. 455 00:21:31,200 --> 00:21:35,160 I, I haven't been able to get the exact number out of anyone 456 00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:37,600 of what the true value of this out of the money hedge book is. 457 00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:42,040 But I think it is enormous. Like my, my intuition, the kind 458 00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:45,800 of range that I've I've been told or guided towards this is 459 00:21:46,320 --> 00:21:49,920 very, very substantial. Like north of, you know, 5 460 00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:52,920 hundred 607 hundred $800 million sort of substantial. 461 00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:57,680 To the huge detriment of the the current owners, right? 462 00:21:57,800 --> 00:21:59,680 Totally. That's a that's, that's a pretty 463 00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:02,120 chunky. Yeah, it's pretty chunky, part 464 00:22:02,120 --> 00:22:03,720 of the capital structure, right And. 465 00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:07,160 You touched on earlier the the life extension component and 466 00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:11,040 this sort of off reported 15 years that they have sort of 467 00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:13,760 worked on. What are you thinking on that? 468 00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:17,440 This, this, I don't think a 15 year mine life extension is as 469 00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:19,560 certain as it might imagine. This kind of comes into the part 470 00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:22,520 where private equity could have kind of, yeah, making things 471 00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:24,480 look better than they, they actually might be. 472 00:22:25,360 --> 00:22:27,880 So there's in that within that mine plan, there's new ore 473 00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:30,720 bodies that kind of rely on untested or sorting. 474 00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:33,120 All of all of that has risk, right? 475 00:22:33,120 --> 00:22:36,880 If you, if you're taking on kind of new technological or applying 476 00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:38,800 technology to untested already, all those sorts of things, 477 00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:41,800 there's, there's risk there. And another, another kind of, 478 00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:44,440 you know, part of this sale process too is do you remember 479 00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:46,480 when, when Newmont was selling Telfer, that sale process was 480 00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:51,000 sort of plagued by a, a leak in one of the, the TSFS they had 481 00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:53,080 there. There's a bit of deja vu here. 482 00:22:53,080 --> 00:22:57,080 One of one of the TSFS here is yeah, there's, there's, there's 483 00:22:57,080 --> 00:23:02,320 a, you know, I don't think it's, you know, terminable kind of 484 00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:05,920 leak, but there is, there is an issue here, yeah, the tailing 485 00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:09,080 storage facilities here. But my, you know, my, my broader 486 00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:11,440 point is this is a week before final bids and there's, there's 487 00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:13,760 two parties supposedly submitting a binding offer in 488 00:23:13,760 --> 00:23:16,920 the midst of a gold bull market. That's that kind of speaks 489 00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:23,720 volumes to like issues that the bidding bidders have had A, with 490 00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:26,640 the asset quality and B, reconciling asset quality with 491 00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:30,720 the valuation expectations of the vendors, like $2 billion to 492 00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:32,960 accept a lot of risk and edge book and all that sort of stuff 493 00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:35,520 doesn't compute. Hence 2 bidders left. 494 00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:38,880 So let's talk about how it, how it plays out, how it plays out 495 00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:43,480 in reality then. I think so. 496 00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:46,800 So you're not attractors and Regis left, right in this 497 00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:49,920 apparently you're not attractors. 498 00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:52,880 He's an Indonesian group. One of the vendors of this is is 499 00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:56,480 Gear Indonesia links, you know, EMR notorious kind of like 500 00:23:56,560 --> 00:23:59,720 Hegity has kind of connections to yeah, Indonesian capital, all 501 00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:02,160 those sorts of things. So I don't, I kind of interpret 502 00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:06,280 United Attractors interest as that questionable in and of 503 00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:08,440 itself. I'm not, I'm not convinced that 504 00:24:08,440 --> 00:24:11,520 United Attractors is a, is a genuine kind of credible bidder 505 00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:15,280 purely because I'm like, is this like, is it a, is it a favour to 506 00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:17,480 look like a A? Competitor. 507 00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:21,720 It's a big question, but. But yeah, I'm I'm told that 508 00:24:21,720 --> 00:24:24,880 maybe they are kind of serious and they're, but that they might 509 00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:27,560 not be serious anywhere near the value expectations of the actual 510 00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:30,760 vendor. So you're not attracted in and 511 00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:34,280 of itself. I'm like unsure of even even 512 00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:37,440 like assume you're not attracted is a serious bidder. 513 00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:41,160 And they might actually like have, you know, a value, a value 514 00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:43,640 that is unpalatable. I'm not even sure they'd get fib 515 00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:46,680 approval. And I know that's kind of maybe 516 00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:50,480 a bit questionable or absurd because because this isn't 517 00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:55,080 Indonesian capital as opposed to Chinese capital, but there's 518 00:24:55,080 --> 00:24:57,880 definitely overlap like the Chinese ethnic Indonesian 519 00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:00,000 capital is. I don't know, I don't know how 520 00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:03,440 like down the track you want to get, but but Ravenswood is a 521 00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:06,320 stone's throw away from Townsville military base. 522 00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:08,320 That's a pretty kind of critical area. 523 00:25:09,120 --> 00:25:11,760 Ferb might be a lot more interested than they otherwise 524 00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:14,400 would, given proximity to a pretty cool, pretty critical 525 00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:15,200 military base. So. 526 00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:17,680 Anyone who's had mates in the army, they've they've swung 527 00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:18,760 through Townsville at some point. 528 00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:22,360 Yeah, yeah. I don't think it's impossible. 529 00:25:22,360 --> 00:25:26,800 I'm here obviously like was able to buy this times are different 530 00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:29,640 in 2020 as well. But I just think like it's not, 531 00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:32,680 it's not a home run furb outcome in my mind. 532 00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:34,920 I think there's I think there's like there's risk there. 533 00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:38,880 And as vendors you've got to kind of question, well, how much 534 00:25:39,280 --> 00:25:40,680 conditionality am I willing to accept? 535 00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:43,520 You accept more conditionality when it's not very competitive 536 00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:48,120 And then Regis, right? Do we actually think Regis is 537 00:25:48,120 --> 00:25:52,080 going to buy this? I don't, I'm not convinced, I'm 538 00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:53,800 not convinced. And I like, I'm certainly not 539 00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:56,640 convinced that they're there at any anywhere near the value 540 00:25:56,640 --> 00:25:58,200 expectations that the vendors have. 541 00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:00,640 That that's the, that's the point, right? 542 00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:04,160 Because I think yeah, they would pick it up if they could do it 543 00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:06,240 completely on the price that they want. 544 00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:10,000 But is that anywhere near what EMR are expecting? 545 00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:14,400 If you're, if you're already assuming a call it close to a 546 00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:21,680 billion dollar like out of the money hedge book, it's, it's it 547 00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:25,360 that, that's, it's, it's, it can be a stretch here when there's 548 00:26:25,360 --> 00:26:28,480 technical risk as well. And even in Regis's case, who 549 00:26:28,520 --> 00:26:32,320 are clearly keen to buy something, I mean, that's no, no 550 00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:33,480 doubt. And they're making tremendous 551 00:26:33,480 --> 00:26:37,200 cash at the moment, but they're obviously looking to add growth, 552 00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:40,640 improve their portfolio. Whether Ravenswood actually does 553 00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:43,280 that, I don't know. And and Regis doesn't have the 554 00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:46,280 same license for M&A in the same way that a lot of other mid 555 00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:50,720 tiers do because the last goal of it was buying its stake in 556 00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:52,960 Tropicana, which was really poorly received by the market 557 00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:55,560 for for a good period of time. Their big consensus was that 558 00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:57,720 they overpaid. Now they've like built up a bit 559 00:26:57,720 --> 00:27:00,840 more trust gold prices run that you know improved their hedge 560 00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:02,560 book. Tropicana is clearly the best 561 00:27:02,560 --> 00:27:06,960 part of their portfolio now, but they have the same license for 562 00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:08,280 M&A. It's interesting what a few 563 00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:12,160 years did into that deal and they solid run in the in the 564 00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:15,360 gold price. But you know, license to do a 565 00:27:15,360 --> 00:27:19,440 deal as as you sort of frame it is clearly more limited at 566 00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:22,520 outrageous than it is at other companies all the while they're 567 00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:25,040 growing their cash bar. They, they and they have to 568 00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:28,800 benchmark this opportunity next to like the other opportunities 569 00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:31,200 which are clearly in the market at the same time. 570 00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:34,880 And on that point there, there are like 2 like very present 571 00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:37,640 real ways that they could allocate their, their capital or 572 00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:40,720 seek growth. And both of them are far more in 573 00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:44,320 their like their home court. I'm talking about Bellevue who 574 00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:47,000 was like publicly declared that they're running a strategic 575 00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:49,760 review. Like we're pretty sure that 576 00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:51,960 they're like showing signs of being serious about that. 577 00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:54,280 There's the data room. To the best of our knowledge, a 578 00:27:54,600 --> 00:27:57,440 bunch of, you know, companies mid tiers have been invited into 579 00:27:57,440 --> 00:28:00,240 that data room. I don't know like details about 580 00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:03,200 timing or everything like that, but there's a, there's a proper 581 00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:05,600 process that underway there for, for Bellevue to maximize 582 00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:08,280 shareholder value, which certainly involves exploring 583 00:28:08,280 --> 00:28:11,680 kind of best, best value M&A on its cards, which it's very 584 00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:14,640 possible Regis could be a serious contender in that. 585 00:28:14,640 --> 00:28:16,960 And the other one is, we've talked about it a few times, 586 00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:23,320 Focus Minerals is, is actively selling their Laverton, all of 587 00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:26,640 their like, yeah, tenure in the Laverton, which there's a lot of 588 00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:30,000 gold there that focus of kind of land grabbed for many years and 589 00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:32,760 not done very much with. But there's, there's a there's 590 00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:35,640 there's a lot of answers there, the quality and how long it will 591 00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:38,000 take and all that sort of stuff. All of that's to be proven out, 592 00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:40,080 but. Much more under the radar given, 593 00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:43,480 you know, Chinese ownership and. Totally. 594 00:28:43,840 --> 00:28:45,880 Or or the sort of questions around that, but. 595 00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:47,840 In the right part of the world though, and there's a lot of, 596 00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:50,280 yeah, a lot of players in that labour and region, even Regis 597 00:28:50,280 --> 00:28:51,880 themselves have will have synergies. 598 00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:54,760 But there's yeah, there's you know, possibly like 4 million 599 00:28:54,760 --> 00:29:00,000 ounces of mineral resource that can be acquired there for like, 600 00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:02,080 you know, in the hundreds of millions of dollars. 601 00:29:02,080 --> 00:29:07,360 But a reasonable number that that like what would the market 602 00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:09,480 prefer to see Regis do? I think it would have much less 603 00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:13,880 appetite for it to to go go Interstate, take on like, again, 604 00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:17,920 more hedging, take on technical risk, all those sorts of things. 605 00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:22,280 But yeah, that's my gut feeling. And where does that leave the 606 00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:27,880 sales process? Well, if you were Regis, what do 607 00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:30,120 you do? Probably put in a pretty lowball 608 00:29:30,120 --> 00:29:33,520 bid. And that lowball bid might be 609 00:29:33,520 --> 00:29:36,200 just like, like the actual price you'd be willing to, you know, 610 00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:42,360 stump up if it like a super lowball bid and private equity, 611 00:29:42,360 --> 00:29:44,240 what are they going to do? They're probably not going to 612 00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:45,840 accept it. I put good money that this 613 00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:47,960 doesn't sell. Like that's my, like my, my 614 00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:50,920 leading hypothesis is that it doesn't, it doesn't sell. 615 00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:58,360 Or maybe maybe gear buys EMR, EMR stake that like in for like 616 00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:00,680 negligible profit. And that lets kind of, you know, 617 00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:05,840 EMR have the, the, the kind of closure outcome that's required 618 00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:08,120 for their for the LP's and the funds and the asset and all that 619 00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:11,800 sort of stuff. But I struggle to sort of see if 620 00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:13,080 these are the only two parties there. 621 00:30:13,080 --> 00:30:18,200 I'm I'm more skeptical of a of an outcome that kind of will 622 00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:20,480 actually be acceptable and palatable unless they accept the 623 00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:22,920 very low ball off of ranges. Yeah, absolutely. 624 00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:26,440 That's that's the other aspect just to emphasize with PE, they 625 00:30:26,440 --> 00:30:30,800 bought it in 2020, but who knows when the that particular fund, I 626 00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:32,520 think that was already a couple years old. 627 00:30:32,800 --> 00:30:34,800 They have definitive timelines. They have pressure on when they 628 00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:37,240 need to have outcomes and get stuff done. 629 00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:42,560 And if it doesn't sell now, you know, maybe they can extend a 630 00:30:42,560 --> 00:30:43,840 few years with the fund and stuff. 631 00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:45,840 Maybe they had a few more years up their sleeve. 632 00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:49,960 But they have outcome pressures that unless they roll it into 633 00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:52,920 the next fund and these sorts of things which PE does over time, 634 00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:56,600 but they no doubt have pressures put on them as well to achieve 635 00:30:56,600 --> 00:31:00,520 outcomes so. I I do think both like Focus and 636 00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:02,800 Bellevue are going to be competitive and. 637 00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:04,680 Undoubtedly. And LV back. 638 00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:06,480 Down at that below the raise price. 639 00:31:06,640 --> 00:31:10,520 Yeah. And Ravenswood is not like not 640 00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:13,560 competitive, right. So there's like, yeah, like what 641 00:31:13,560 --> 00:31:15,760 kind of bargain you're going to get on a relative basis, like, I 642 00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:21,880 don't don't know. But but yeah, like they'd be the 643 00:31:22,160 --> 00:31:24,400 equations for for a company like Regis. 644 00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:26,480 Yeah. Given we've also said in the 645 00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:31,520 past that winning a competitive auction process is is no great 646 00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:34,480 achievement, but we'll see what happens on that front given that 647 00:31:34,480 --> 00:31:36,080 the nature of it. Absolutely, mate. 648 00:31:36,520 --> 00:31:38,320 I think we've got some Marks and partners to thank mate. 649 00:31:38,720 --> 00:31:41,520 Absolutely a massive thank you to Mineral Mining services, 650 00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:44,600 Grandeur, Sandvik Ground support, CRE Insurance, K drill, 651 00:31:44,840 --> 00:31:47,960 KCA site services, Black diamond drilling services and Cross 652 00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:48,640 Boundary Energy.