1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:01,560 Money, manners, you know all about this one. 2 00:00:01,560 --> 00:00:04,800 Our final episode of the year, the wonderful peak Kerr, just in 3 00:00:04,880 --> 00:00:07,800 a moment. We can't wait to give you a very 4 00:00:07,800 --> 00:00:10,600 last bit of content for the calendar year 2026. 5 00:00:10,760 --> 00:00:13,160 But first, JD. Final episode of the year mate. 6 00:00:13,160 --> 00:00:16,520 It's been a ripping 2025. I hope everyone's portfolio out 7 00:00:16,520 --> 00:00:19,240 there reflects it. Commodities have been on a tear 8 00:00:19,880 --> 00:00:21,880 and you might be thinking it's time to take a few chips off the 9 00:00:21,880 --> 00:00:23,280 table. Diversify a bit. 10 00:00:24,280 --> 00:00:26,400 Yeah, yeah. No, I'm very pro cyclical. 11 00:00:26,480 --> 00:00:28,360 The portfolio goes up. I want more. 12 00:00:29,000 --> 00:00:31,440 Well, we've been having a few wins across the portfolio and 13 00:00:31,560 --> 00:00:33,680 hopefully everyone else there has as well. 14 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:35,680 And if you are thinking of taking a few trips off the 15 00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:38,040 table, we're in Australia. You think you're property, 16 00:00:38,240 --> 00:00:40,200 right? Mate, what could be? 17 00:00:40,400 --> 00:00:43,840 What could be more Australian than the property market? 18 00:00:43,840 --> 00:00:45,720 I don't know. Nothing's more Australian, 19 00:00:45,720 --> 00:00:48,080 right? So why not go with a group from 20 00:00:48,080 --> 00:00:50,600 Brizzy, a group called Exceed Capital Mate. 21 00:00:50,600 --> 00:00:53,000 They have this flagship fund called The Collective. 22 00:00:53,280 --> 00:00:56,440 It's an open-ended fund. It's diversified, diversified 23 00:00:56,440 --> 00:01:00,280 across locations, diversified across different asset classes, 24 00:01:00,280 --> 00:01:02,760 diversified across different businesses as well, mate. 25 00:01:02,920 --> 00:01:05,160 Sounds pretty good, right? We're talking about commercial 26 00:01:05,160 --> 00:01:07,520 property here. If you just look historically at 27 00:01:07,520 --> 00:01:11,360 that one fund, seven 8% cash return paid monthly, monthly. 28 00:01:11,360 --> 00:01:14,160 And then then there's obviously capital gain on top of that. 29 00:01:14,160 --> 00:01:19,480 So very interesting way to to to add something a little bit extra 30 00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:22,320 to your portfolio that is maybe a bit less volatile than mining 31 00:01:22,320 --> 00:01:23,680 stocks, but we love mining stocks. 32 00:01:23,680 --> 00:01:25,440 Thank you. Exceed capital go check them out 33 00:01:26,240 --> 00:01:32,680 go to Pete Kerr final episode of the year as always joined by the 34 00:01:32,680 --> 00:01:36,760 wonderful peak ker of the AFR or the financial review. 35 00:01:37,240 --> 00:01:39,160 Do we got to call it the fin from now on, don't we? 36 00:01:39,160 --> 00:01:42,240 I feel like we're just stuck in this habit of calling it the AFR 37 00:01:42,280 --> 00:01:43,360 but. Anything. 38 00:01:43,680 --> 00:01:45,280 Anything you want, you can call it. 39 00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:47,640 Wow. We'll call it Pete's, Pete's, 40 00:01:48,080 --> 00:01:49,760 Pete's home ground. We're just, we're delighted to 41 00:01:49,760 --> 00:01:52,760 have you here every year you join us, Pete, we reflect on the 42 00:01:52,840 --> 00:01:54,760 year that was and the year ahead. 43 00:01:54,760 --> 00:01:59,040 We're going to do it again. And 2025 has been a blockbuster 44 00:01:59,040 --> 00:02:01,240 year in many respects, A defining year. 45 00:02:01,240 --> 00:02:03,720 JD's called some of the things that have happened this year is 46 00:02:03,720 --> 00:02:06,960 the most important stories of the decade in terms of our 47 00:02:06,960 --> 00:02:10,080 industry. I'm I'm really keen to peel 48 00:02:10,080 --> 00:02:13,480 through some of those like big themes, big stories, big company 49 00:02:13,480 --> 00:02:16,320 and corporate moves and importantly look ahead at what 50 00:02:16,320 --> 00:02:18,560 could be in 2026. Again, we're going to we're 51 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:20,280 going to get you predictions. We're going to predict some 52 00:02:20,280 --> 00:02:22,560 stuff ourselves and keep ourselves accountable for what 53 00:02:22,560 --> 00:02:25,280 we called last year. Pete, thanks for coming on Money 54 00:02:25,280 --> 00:02:27,240 and Mine. Great to be here. 55 00:02:27,240 --> 00:02:28,560 I feel like I'm like your father. 56 00:02:28,560 --> 00:02:30,680 Christmas. I only appear once a year, like 57 00:02:30,680 --> 00:02:32,600 shortly, you know, late December. 58 00:02:32,600 --> 00:02:35,040 So three times in a row. It's a hat trick. 59 00:02:35,040 --> 00:02:37,760 I'm very pleased to be here. And everyone's thrilled for it, 60 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:40,160 Pete. We're yeah, we're delighted to 61 00:02:40,200 --> 00:02:42,960 to jump into these stories. And we were tic tacking over the 62 00:02:42,960 --> 00:02:45,040 past week about what are the big stories? 63 00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:47,800 What should we unpack? And the first one on that list 64 00:02:47,800 --> 00:02:52,280 was geopolitics and how geopolitics has really made it 65 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:54,960 sort of presence felt across the minerals, the mining space. 66 00:02:54,960 --> 00:02:56,720 And it, it, the impact's been huge. 67 00:02:56,960 --> 00:02:59,960 Thinking of things like price floors of government grants of 68 00:03:00,400 --> 00:03:03,280 export import banks, getting involved in financing projects, 69 00:03:03,640 --> 00:03:06,640 be it rare earth, critical minerals, all these sorts of 70 00:03:06,640 --> 00:03:08,000 things. So I want to start the, the 71 00:03:08,000 --> 00:03:11,400 conversation here and given that you've got a few years of 72 00:03:11,440 --> 00:03:15,000 experience on, on us here, I'd love to to hear from your 73 00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:18,960 perspective how monumental you kind of think these moves that 74 00:03:18,960 --> 00:03:22,520 we've seen are specifically what the US has done in underwriting 75 00:03:22,520 --> 00:03:24,640 price floors in, in things like rare earths. 76 00:03:25,760 --> 00:03:27,680 Yes. I mean, I've just sort of coming 77 00:03:27,680 --> 00:03:30,440 to the end of my 14th year covering this sector. 78 00:03:30,440 --> 00:03:33,280 And I've always said, like going back right to the start, the 79 00:03:33,280 --> 00:03:36,400 thing that I found most fascinating about it of many 80 00:03:36,400 --> 00:03:40,080 things was the geopolitics that was always at play. 81 00:03:40,120 --> 00:03:43,000 So when I started, it was around the time of Kevin Rudd's mining 82 00:03:43,000 --> 00:03:45,000 tax proposal. And you know, that obviously 83 00:03:45,000 --> 00:03:49,320 blew up and became a big thing. And I remember Aceo, one of the 84 00:03:49,320 --> 00:03:53,480 CEOs of the big multinationals, saying to me one time about how 85 00:03:53,840 --> 00:03:56,360 the nation states, they've got us over a barrel in the 86 00:03:56,360 --> 00:04:00,400 resources industry. And I was, I was sort of puzzled 87 00:04:00,400 --> 00:04:02,360 by this, right? Because the narrative was, oh, 88 00:04:02,440 --> 00:04:04,840 the big miners push around the politicians, they own the 89 00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:06,680 politicians, they tell them what to do. 90 00:04:07,520 --> 00:04:12,400 But the point he made was that if you're a shoe company, so 91 00:04:12,400 --> 00:04:15,560 let's say you're Nike or Puma or someone, and you've got a shoe 92 00:04:15,560 --> 00:04:19,160 factory in let's call it any like Thailand, for example, 93 00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:22,920 Thailand raises the taxes. You can just go across the 94 00:04:22,920 --> 00:04:25,920 border to Cambodia and build the exact same factory. 95 00:04:26,360 --> 00:04:29,760 Goodbye Thailand, you know, continue on your merry way in 96 00:04:29,760 --> 00:04:32,160 the resources industry. The they are where they are in 97 00:04:32,160 --> 00:04:35,120 the ground. So the nation state has such 98 00:04:35,600 --> 00:04:39,560 more power over this industry. So that sort of for me was 99 00:04:39,560 --> 00:04:41,000 always the bit that I liked the most. 100 00:04:41,000 --> 00:04:43,600 You know, over the decade, we saw things like Indonesia, you 101 00:04:43,600 --> 00:04:45,920 know, do export bans and all these things that affected 102 00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:48,360 commodity markets. And that was kind of cool to 103 00:04:48,360 --> 00:04:50,720 watch. But these past couple of years, 104 00:04:50,720 --> 00:04:53,120 it's just been geopolitics on steroids. 105 00:04:54,560 --> 00:04:57,240 This time last year, I was with you guys on this show, and we 106 00:04:57,240 --> 00:05:00,080 were talking about this, about how incredible it was that our 107 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:04,280 taxpayer dollars were being lent to Alluca to make the Eniaba 108 00:05:04,280 --> 00:05:06,840 refinery. Yeah, this was a controversial 109 00:05:06,840 --> 00:05:09,240 thing and everyone's got different views about it. 110 00:05:09,600 --> 00:05:11,360 Well, that looks like child's play now. 111 00:05:11,520 --> 00:05:15,040 Like, come this year, we've got U.S. government setting price 112 00:05:15,040 --> 00:05:19,800 floors, as you mentioned, we've got the Australian government 113 00:05:19,800 --> 00:05:23,960 buying shares in Lyntown. Like that was not on my list of 114 00:05:23,960 --> 00:05:27,200 predictions for 2025. You know, government support for 115 00:05:27,200 --> 00:05:29,600 the industry used to be drilling grants and then it was a bit of 116 00:05:29,600 --> 00:05:32,080 a step when they started giving concessional loans. 117 00:05:32,520 --> 00:05:35,120 Now they're just buying shares in pre revenue companies 118 00:05:35,120 --> 00:05:37,040 sometimes. Obviously Lyontown now has some 119 00:05:37,040 --> 00:05:39,880 revenue, but there's other explorers who are pre revenue 120 00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:42,560 who the taxpayer now owns shares in. 121 00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:46,800 So this is incredible territory to be honest. 122 00:05:48,120 --> 00:05:51,480 And for me it just opens up so many more questions like those 123 00:05:51,480 --> 00:05:56,480 Lyontown shares as we sit here today, in December 2025, the 124 00:05:56,480 --> 00:05:58,280 Australian taxpayers done well out of that, right? 125 00:05:58,280 --> 00:06:00,720 Like they've probably tripled from that equity raise. 126 00:06:01,040 --> 00:06:04,160 And who's the dude in Canberra sitting there managing the fund, 127 00:06:04,160 --> 00:06:07,760 like being the little, you know, Michael Barry of Canberra? 128 00:06:07,840 --> 00:06:10,760 Like are they are they selling the line town shares today to 129 00:06:10,760 --> 00:06:12,160 make a tidy profit? I don't know. 130 00:06:13,240 --> 00:06:17,800 So that's what keeps me fascinated, I reckon by this 131 00:06:17,800 --> 00:06:21,760 industry, just the growing interplay of of governments, 132 00:06:21,800 --> 00:06:25,440 this emerging, you know, bifurcation of the world between 133 00:06:25,440 --> 00:06:31,240 a Chinese and A and AUS state. It's it's, it's moved markets 134 00:06:31,280 --> 00:06:33,480 all year and I think it probably will again next year. 135 00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:36,640 There's one more layer as well, Pete, which I think really 136 00:06:36,640 --> 00:06:41,000 started gathering steam around the AFR mining Summit in I think 137 00:06:41,000 --> 00:06:43,480 May of this year. And that is the stockpile, the 138 00:06:43,480 --> 00:06:46,200 critical mineral stockpile that the Australian government was 139 00:06:46,280 --> 00:06:48,720 talking about. Yeah, going to put you on the 140 00:06:48,720 --> 00:06:51,240 spot here a bit, but how effective do you do you think 141 00:06:51,560 --> 00:06:54,360 that will be? And what form do you think 142 00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:57,000 that's going to end up taking when when we get a bit more 143 00:06:57,000 --> 00:06:58,440 detail over the next half year on it? 144 00:06:59,600 --> 00:07:04,280 So there was a bit more action on that front just last week. 145 00:07:04,280 --> 00:07:06,760 So depending on when your audience is enjoying this 146 00:07:06,760 --> 00:07:09,000 podcast or hating this podcast, hopefully you're enjoying it. 147 00:07:09,720 --> 00:07:11,840 You know, I'm talking about sort of the middle week of December, 148 00:07:12,880 --> 00:07:17,360 I gather AMEC, the lobby group based in Perth, heavily involved 149 00:07:17,360 --> 00:07:22,080 in formulating the a proposal and the hope is that the this 150 00:07:22,080 --> 00:07:25,520 will be an industry LED proposal that the government can sort of 151 00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:27,520 rubber stamp. You know, the government came to 152 00:07:27,520 --> 00:07:30,840 them and said in broad terms, this is what we want to do, how 153 00:07:30,840 --> 00:07:32,600 should we do it? The industry is now going back 154 00:07:32,600 --> 00:07:34,720 to them and saying we think you should do it this way. 155 00:07:36,200 --> 00:07:39,760 So if that model gets up, in really simple terms, it sounds 156 00:07:39,760 --> 00:07:43,160 like it would be nation to nation agreements. 157 00:07:43,160 --> 00:07:45,920 The governments of Australia and let's say for instance, South 158 00:07:45,920 --> 00:07:50,640 Korea agree that Australia will provide certain volume to South 159 00:07:50,640 --> 00:07:54,800 Korea over certain years. And then the Australian 160 00:07:54,800 --> 00:07:57,560 government turns to miners in this country and says, well, can 161 00:07:57,560 --> 00:08:00,640 you guys please deliver that helps them out, you know, 162 00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:03,000 concessional loans, all those sorts of things. 163 00:08:04,360 --> 00:08:07,080 And I guess ultimately, if Australian mining companies 164 00:08:07,080 --> 00:08:09,640 failed to deliver on the promised volumes, then the 165 00:08:09,640 --> 00:08:12,960 taxpayer is on the hook. That's when the taxpayer might 166 00:08:12,960 --> 00:08:16,080 have to step into the spot market, buy some volumes and get 167 00:08:16,080 --> 00:08:19,960 them to South Korea. So it's sort of if that model 168 00:08:19,960 --> 00:08:24,600 were to get up, you know, it's kind of smart in the sense that 169 00:08:24,920 --> 00:08:27,960 the government can play a big role here, but might not ever 170 00:08:27,960 --> 00:08:32,720 actually spend a dollar if if you know what I mean, If the if 171 00:08:32,720 --> 00:08:37,240 the Australian miners deliver to the promise that Canberra makes 172 00:08:37,360 --> 00:08:42,000 to South Korea, well, then it's just transactions between the 173 00:08:42,000 --> 00:08:47,320 minor and the customer. So that seems to be the the 174 00:08:47,320 --> 00:08:51,040 default leading model. And it sounds as though rare 175 00:08:51,040 --> 00:08:56,760 earths NDPR is the most likely place it will start, but perhaps 176 00:08:56,760 --> 00:09:03,800 also gallium, maybe antimony. And I think that's because, say 177 00:09:03,800 --> 00:09:06,520 gallium and germanium. The hope is that they'll be able 178 00:09:06,520 --> 00:09:10,640 to get those off the existing smelters and refineries, the 179 00:09:10,640 --> 00:09:14,400 near star ones and so forth or the Alcoa ones in WA, add a 180 00:09:14,400 --> 00:09:19,240 little circuit, it's not a lot of CapEx and you just extract, 181 00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:21,720 you know, gallium out of what was going to waste. 182 00:09:22,040 --> 00:09:24,480 So I'd expect those two or three will be the first commodities 183 00:09:24,480 --> 00:09:26,920 there. The lithium miners far less 184 00:09:26,920 --> 00:09:31,680 convinced about this as a concept, far less unified. 185 00:09:31,680 --> 00:09:36,560 The rare earths guys seem relatively unified and I guess 186 00:09:37,120 --> 00:09:39,640 to some extent that makes sense really because the lithium 187 00:09:39,640 --> 00:09:42,520 miners generally are incumbents. They are out in the market 188 00:09:42,520 --> 00:09:45,000 selling this stuff already. They have contracts. 189 00:09:45,800 --> 00:09:49,240 So if you're going to try and set price floors, you're kind of 190 00:09:49,240 --> 00:09:51,680 interfering with the contracts they've already got set, whereas 191 00:09:51,880 --> 00:09:55,360 most of the rarest people in the conversation not yet in 192 00:09:55,360 --> 00:09:58,480 production. So it's sort of easier to start 193 00:09:58,480 --> 00:10:00,120 there. So that's where I would expect 194 00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:04,680 it starts. The, the, the next layer that, 195 00:10:04,800 --> 00:10:07,080 that I think about heaps when it comes to, to geopolitics. 196 00:10:07,080 --> 00:10:09,720 And, and it's interesting what you say there, Pete, about the 197 00:10:09,720 --> 00:10:12,640 Aussie government perhaps not having to, to, to write a check 198 00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:15,720 because let's see which projects get funded. 199 00:10:15,720 --> 00:10:18,120 Let's see where, where the money to, to finance these projects 200 00:10:18,120 --> 00:10:20,160 come from. That's a very open-ended 201 00:10:20,160 --> 00:10:23,280 question. But the countries with which we 202 00:10:23,280 --> 00:10:25,920 do do these deals is another really interesting layer from 203 00:10:25,920 --> 00:10:28,120 from my perspective, because you mentioned South Korea obviously 204 00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:32,760 with the US, but we're in the middle of this China, US kind of 205 00:10:32,840 --> 00:10:36,000 trade war. And iron ore is the elephant in 206 00:10:36,000 --> 00:10:39,600 the room when it comes to this. And we have seen a lot of back 207 00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:45,080 and forth with BHB and the, the more unified iron ore buying 208 00:10:45,080 --> 00:10:49,280 group in, in China now that's trying to pull together all the 209 00:10:49,280 --> 00:10:52,480 interests for the, for the steel mills and have a bit more, bit 210 00:10:52,480 --> 00:10:55,240 more sway. How have you seen this story UN 211 00:10:55,280 --> 00:10:58,000 unvolve or evolve over the year rather? 212 00:10:58,320 --> 00:11:00,640 And where, where do you kind of think we're going on that trend? 213 00:11:00,640 --> 00:11:03,240 Are we going to see more renminbi deals? 214 00:11:03,240 --> 00:11:05,160 Is is that something on the cards for next year? 215 00:11:06,080 --> 00:11:08,440 Wouldn't surprise me if we do, I think. 216 00:11:10,520 --> 00:11:13,600 I guess what we can be certain about is that there's currently 217 00:11:13,600 --> 00:11:17,440 no deal between BHP and the Chinese buying desk. 218 00:11:18,320 --> 00:11:21,520 Just last week in mid-december, we were continuing to see 219 00:11:21,800 --> 00:11:26,080 another little flurry out of CMG of of jawboning, I guess where 220 00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:28,480 they tried to crack down on essentially the port side 221 00:11:28,480 --> 00:11:31,120 trading in China. This is something that the three 222 00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:34,280 big W Australian miners have increased a lot the past few 223 00:11:34,280 --> 00:11:35,920 years. The idea that you get the iron 224 00:11:35,920 --> 00:11:40,240 ore to a a yard at the port in China and you keep it there 225 00:11:40,240 --> 00:11:42,760 longer than you traditionally did and you can maybe blend it 226 00:11:42,760 --> 00:11:45,320 with some stuff from Simandu or from Valet or whatever. 227 00:11:48,480 --> 00:11:55,400 You'd have to say that as things stand, the Australian miners, I 228 00:11:55,400 --> 00:11:59,720 mean it proximity bias, maybe we're falling victim to that, 229 00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:00,920 but they seem to be winning, right? 230 00:12:00,920 --> 00:12:04,240 Like the iron ore price has been stronger than everyone expected. 231 00:12:05,160 --> 00:12:07,920 Late last week, it was still 105 US. 232 00:12:08,960 --> 00:12:12,440 Who knows whether, you know, that becomes famous last words 233 00:12:12,440 --> 00:12:18,040 next year. But yeah, like it continues to 234 00:12:18,160 --> 00:12:22,680 it continues to hold strong. Rio Tinto shares hit an all time 235 00:12:22,680 --> 00:12:25,560 record on Friday. They've never been higher ever, 236 00:12:25,760 --> 00:12:27,880 you know, at an on oil price of 105. 237 00:12:28,240 --> 00:12:32,160 Keeping in mind the on oil price was, what, 230 back in 2021. 238 00:12:34,080 --> 00:12:37,120 So, yeah, it wouldn't surprise me if China wins some 239 00:12:37,120 --> 00:12:39,400 concessions. But if you look at it the other 240 00:12:39,400 --> 00:12:41,680 way, are they starting? Are they a bit desperate? 241 00:12:42,000 --> 00:12:45,560 Like if they're resorting to a lot of these sort of regular 242 00:12:45,560 --> 00:12:48,480 sort of outbursts about, you know, unnamed sources say we'll 243 00:12:48,480 --> 00:12:51,760 do this and we'll do that, I don't know, Do you do that if 244 00:12:51,760 --> 00:12:56,880 you're getting traction? I did hear from someone 245 00:12:56,880 --> 00:13:00,720 extremely well placed on this debate that one of the world's 246 00:13:00,720 --> 00:13:05,280 BIG4 miners, and I actually don't know which one it is 247 00:13:05,280 --> 00:13:07,320 because the person refused to tell me which one it was. 248 00:13:07,400 --> 00:13:14,120 But one of them has threatened to go entirely to spot, entirely 249 00:13:14,120 --> 00:13:16,320 to the spot market in terms of volumes as well. 250 00:13:17,040 --> 00:13:22,120 So whilst BHP is the focus of this, I think some of the others 251 00:13:22,160 --> 00:13:23,680 are dealing with it intensely as well. 252 00:13:23,680 --> 00:13:28,360 And some of them are ready to take the well the to really take 253 00:13:28,360 --> 00:13:31,040 the fight up and go. We're going to back ourselves to 254 00:13:31,040 --> 00:13:32,840 be able to withstand whatever you throw at us. 255 00:13:33,800 --> 00:13:37,600 I I think it's such a such a big and evolving story. 256 00:13:37,600 --> 00:13:41,520 I don't, I don't think I'd, I'd characterize the Australian 257 00:13:41,520 --> 00:13:44,760 miners as as winning this fight. I think like, I know price 258 00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:49,840 elevated is, is a function of, of many things, but, but I think 259 00:13:49,840 --> 00:13:54,480 like CMRG on, on many fronts is exerting more and more power. 260 00:13:54,640 --> 00:13:58,320 And they're, they're absolutely like having an influence for for 261 00:13:58,320 --> 00:14:00,320 the first time in, in, in many years. 262 00:14:01,080 --> 00:14:03,720 And you know, we've seen the concessions that BHP sort of had 263 00:14:03,720 --> 00:14:07,160 to make around its Jimbo bar products and the, and the likes 264 00:14:07,160 --> 00:14:09,880 as a result of some of this market power. 265 00:14:10,720 --> 00:14:15,560 One of the like, one of the underlying all of this is like 266 00:14:15,560 --> 00:14:17,800 what, what, what are we denominating trade in? 267 00:14:17,800 --> 00:14:19,680 Like what are we, what's that de facto currency? 268 00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:23,880 What's the reserve currency of trade and is and, and what are 269 00:14:23,880 --> 00:14:26,000 the terms of, of that trade going to be? 270 00:14:26,440 --> 00:14:32,120 And it, it was such political hot potato to even kind of talk 271 00:14:32,120 --> 00:14:35,600 about the, you know, the, the denomination of, of, of iron ore 272 00:14:35,600 --> 00:14:38,440 trade in renminbi, despite the fact that 30% of spot spot 273 00:14:38,440 --> 00:14:41,520 volumes trading in renminbi was kind of standard practice until, 274 00:14:41,880 --> 00:14:45,560 until, and just not really discussed or anything like that. 275 00:14:46,040 --> 00:14:50,560 And that's a, that's clearly a, a point of contention from CMRG. 276 00:14:50,560 --> 00:14:54,360 They want, they want more trade in, in, in, in renminbi and 277 00:14:54,680 --> 00:14:58,280 they, they want to have more market power to negotiate with 278 00:14:58,280 --> 00:15:02,160 the respective iron ore miners. You look, you look at a another 279 00:15:02,240 --> 00:15:05,080 like bulks oligopoly that exists. 280 00:15:05,080 --> 00:15:08,800 You've got the, the potash giants in Canada, the likes of, 281 00:15:09,360 --> 00:15:13,040 of nutrient and, and Mosaic and, and there you've got this 282 00:15:13,040 --> 00:15:17,440 effective oligopoly marketing machine, the two, you know, 283 00:15:17,560 --> 00:15:21,040 those two parties actually collectively determine what, 284 00:15:21,040 --> 00:15:23,920 what you know, what the, what the output is going to be and 285 00:15:24,000 --> 00:15:27,200 effectively fend off any, any, any new entrant, just, you know, 286 00:15:27,320 --> 00:15:29,640 but BHP is trying to enter that arena. 287 00:15:29,840 --> 00:15:33,200 Do you think there's justification for a for a, for a 288 00:15:33,200 --> 00:15:37,360 potash type OPEC to emerge in the iron ore sectopy? 289 00:15:38,360 --> 00:15:44,600 Wouldn't it be amazing? Look, maybe, maybe I wonder. 290 00:15:45,080 --> 00:15:48,240 I mean, it gets hard with regulators potentially if BHP 291 00:15:48,240 --> 00:15:54,080 and Rio do it, but I mean, Amin resin, Hancock already close in 292 00:15:54,080 --> 00:15:56,280 that regard. I'll I'll phrase that as a 293 00:15:56,280 --> 00:15:57,280 question. I don't know. 294 00:15:58,680 --> 00:16:00,400 Yeah, it's not a that's not a statement, I guess. 295 00:16:00,400 --> 00:16:03,440 But I guess there's scope for that, isn't there? 296 00:16:04,960 --> 00:16:08,040 And look, some people on the Chinese side might say that the 297 00:16:08,040 --> 00:16:10,920 Western miners already tried to do that with the creation of 298 00:16:10,920 --> 00:16:13,480 some of these price indexes. You know, there's global ore, 299 00:16:13,800 --> 00:16:17,200 which was set up about 1213 years ago and Global coal was 300 00:16:17,200 --> 00:16:20,840 set up in London as well. You've heard a veteran of that 301 00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:26,440 process, Tony Odeviano, Speaking of Lyontown talked about the 302 00:16:26,440 --> 00:16:30,200 lithium industry needs to go and follow that that process. 303 00:16:31,680 --> 00:16:36,840 So maybe, maybe, but I'm just not sure if it will come to 304 00:16:36,840 --> 00:16:39,840 that. Like it's not like iron ore 305 00:16:39,840 --> 00:16:42,320 prices are at 200. You know, we, we saw last week 306 00:16:42,440 --> 00:16:44,960 the CMRG came out and said that there was some, I think the 307 00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:48,040 exact words were something like there's unreasonable heat in the 308 00:16:48,040 --> 00:16:51,360 iron ore price. I don't know. 309 00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:55,040 Is is 105 unreasonable heat given where it's been? 310 00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:58,440 Here's my question to you right. How much of that is CMRG buying 311 00:16:58,440 --> 00:17:01,200 up spot volumes to exert even more power? 312 00:17:01,200 --> 00:17:04,720 CMRG is one of the reasons that the spot price is where it is 313 00:17:04,720 --> 00:17:07,880 because they're, they're, they're buying as you know, a 314 00:17:07,880 --> 00:17:09,440 lot, a lot of spot volumes themselves. 315 00:17:09,440 --> 00:17:12,119 And that gives them, you know, more and more collective 316 00:17:12,319 --> 00:17:16,960 bargaining power. Yeah, I, I don't know is the 317 00:17:16,960 --> 00:17:18,240 answer. Yeah, I don't know. 318 00:17:19,760 --> 00:17:21,839 Yeah. It it it's gonna continue to 319 00:17:21,839 --> 00:17:23,920 roll on next year. The iron ore market's evolving 320 00:17:23,920 --> 00:17:25,440 fast. We've got Simandu coming in. 321 00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:27,960 And notionally that's been talked about as being a risk to 322 00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:32,600 the Aussie iron ore miners. If you, if you watched Rio 323 00:17:32,600 --> 00:17:36,720 Tinto's Investor Day, I think it was December 4, or if you 324 00:17:36,720 --> 00:17:39,840 haven't, I'd urge you to go have a look at your audience. 325 00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:42,000 Have a look at what Vivek Toolpool talked about. 326 00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:44,320 He's Rio's sort of commodities and markets guy. 327 00:17:45,200 --> 00:17:48,120 And he was the guy who famously sort of said China will reach a 328 00:17:48,120 --> 00:17:49,520 billion tonnes of iron ore demand. 329 00:17:49,520 --> 00:17:51,000 And he got ridiculed for several years. 330 00:17:51,000 --> 00:17:54,480 And then when it came through, Vivek kept receipts and he made 331 00:17:54,480 --> 00:17:57,960 sure everyone had come through. His presentation the other night 332 00:17:57,960 --> 00:18:01,960 was a bit more, bit more punchy than normal. 333 00:18:01,960 --> 00:18:05,160 Actually, he was, he was really mounting that case about how the 334 00:18:05,160 --> 00:18:10,520 market has drastically underestimated the impact of 335 00:18:10,520 --> 00:18:12,360 depletion in the iron ore market. 336 00:18:13,480 --> 00:18:17,600 Now they would say that they're talking their book, but you 337 00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:20,720 know, it's a theme that I saw Black Rock World Mining Trust 338 00:18:20,720 --> 00:18:23,560 pick up on. And they were sort of publicly 339 00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:26,520 talking a couple of weeks ago that they sort of you'd see that 340 00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:29,240 as well. It wasn't just Rio, it was valet 341 00:18:29,400 --> 00:18:32,200 had a capital market stay the same week and and spoke to the 342 00:18:32,200 --> 00:18:34,400 exact same phenomenon. And and both of them I think 343 00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:39,240 have a very healthy like floor price on on what what iron ore 344 00:18:39,520 --> 00:18:42,240 you know, could be. And and we the the market likes 345 00:18:42,240 --> 00:18:44,160 to talk about the impact that SIM and do will have. 346 00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:47,640 But the reality of of SIM and do coming online is it actually 347 00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:51,120 might just replace depletion that is that is coming from 348 00:18:51,120 --> 00:18:55,600 existing mines as opposed to really meaningfully impact, you 349 00:18:55,600 --> 00:18:57,440 know, the, the total supply equation. 350 00:18:58,200 --> 00:19:00,480 And that's if Simon do goes to plan, right? 351 00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:03,440 I mean, at the end of this month, it might be like December 352 00:19:03,440 --> 00:19:05,560 28 or something. Guinea's gonna have its first 353 00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:08,440 elections in about 5 or 6 years now. 354 00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:11,320 Let's hope, fingers crossed they go smoothly and they are 355 00:19:11,320 --> 00:19:14,120 peaceful and democratic. But I mean, who knows what's 356 00:19:14,120 --> 00:19:19,680 gonna happen, right? So yeah, I don't know. 357 00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:23,800 I sort of it makes sense that CMRG should have enormous power 358 00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:27,000 and basically should be able to just design this market however 359 00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:29,880 they want it. But they've been around a couple 360 00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:32,360 of years now, right? And the price still seems to 361 00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:36,840 stay in that band that the big miners talk about between $80 362 00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:40,520 USA tonne and $100 a tonne as being that that sort of big Bank 363 00:19:40,520 --> 00:19:45,240 of supply that, you know, if the price dips down, a fair bit of 364 00:19:45,240 --> 00:19:47,520 global supply becomes uneconomic. 365 00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:51,040 Yeah, that, that high price shoulder is a really interesting 366 00:19:51,040 --> 00:19:53,800 layer to the market. And I think if we we zoom out on 367 00:19:53,800 --> 00:19:57,800 the the pricing lens for a moment there as well and and not 368 00:19:57,800 --> 00:19:59,840 focus on Australia versus China for a moment. 369 00:20:00,800 --> 00:20:04,760 I think the the US is the real loser having less priced in in 370 00:20:04,760 --> 00:20:09,480 the US dollar because what what is the actual impact to the iron 371 00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:11,760 ore price if it's priced in in another currency? 372 00:20:12,440 --> 00:20:14,440 I think. That, that impact is more on the 373 00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:17,720 margins, but in general, China is trying to just get more trade 374 00:20:17,720 --> 00:20:20,640 through its currency and that would be a win for it. 375 00:20:20,640 --> 00:20:23,000 But that's perhaps a bit of a, a bit of a side note. 376 00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:27,200 I, I did have a question on SIM and Do for you, Pete and I, and 377 00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:30,120 I note you, you wrote a fantastic article maybe a month 378 00:20:30,120 --> 00:20:33,280 or so ago, a real deep dive into, into SIM and Do and 379 00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:37,720 everything going on there. We have seen some talk lately 380 00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:41,200 with Rio Tinto and their interest and the DLC and 381 00:20:41,200 --> 00:20:43,480 everything with with new management looking at this in 382 00:20:43,640 --> 00:20:47,080 perhaps a slightly different light and the 15% Chenalco 383 00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:50,240 interest coming into question again, do you think SIM and Do 384 00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:54,640 is seriously on the cards to be perhaps a stake in that, in that 385 00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:57,800 negotiation in an eventual collapse of the DLC? 386 00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:02,520 It's a fascinating question. And for any of your audience 387 00:21:02,520 --> 00:21:04,880 aren't aware, there was a story that Reuters published about a 388 00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:08,200 month ago, which which basically implied this, that Rio would 389 00:21:09,400 --> 00:21:13,280 effectively sell an asset to Chanelco, which is its biggest 390 00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:17,960 shareholder as a way and in exchange for some of Chanelco's 391 00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:22,760 shares in Rio as a way of reducing Chanelco's stake on its 392 00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:25,840 on its share register, which, you know, Chanelco's state is 393 00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:29,600 right at the limit imposed by Australia's Ferb prevents Rio 394 00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:35,720 from doing share buybacks. Maybe, maybe I don't have any 395 00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:39,640 sort of personal confirmation that that is underway. 396 00:21:42,360 --> 00:21:45,320 I don't know. I can sort of see Simandu and 397 00:21:45,320 --> 00:21:47,720 Chinelka, obviously a partner in Simandu. 398 00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:50,520 So they're already there. Sort of makes it easy from from 399 00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:55,480 that point, if you're real. I think there is some sort of 400 00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:59,920 strategic merit in having a bit of Simandu as well as your WA 401 00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:03,600 business just gives you that great insight to the market. 402 00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:07,680 Maybe there's blending opportunities in future. 403 00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:12,760 So I think, I think there is merit for Rio keeping Simandu if 404 00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:16,720 that makes sense. But yeah, like and I would have 405 00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:20,720 thought are there other assets that they could do the same sort 406 00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:23,960 of deal with with Chenelco, You know Chenelco do many things, 407 00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:26,760 but they are originally an aluminium company. 408 00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:30,600 Rio's got plenty of aluminium assets, plenty of assets. 409 00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:32,800 Riha would love to sell sell a million assets. 410 00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:35,400 Unfortunately, Janelko's not going to want that. 411 00:22:36,120 --> 00:22:39,840 Let's give them Tobago. Although, I mean, there's 412 00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:42,840 fascinating things happening in the sorry to, you know, deviate 413 00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:44,120 from your question. No, no, no. 414 00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:48,800 Jonas But fascinating things happening in Illumina as well. 415 00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:52,520 And your audience is probably already crossed this, but 416 00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:55,120 sounds, you know, there is a prospect that Indonesia's going 417 00:22:55,120 --> 00:22:58,120 to do to Illumina what they did to Nickel two or three years ago 418 00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:01,920 and crush, you know, the rest of the world. 419 00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:06,640 But yet China's, you know, sort of effectively got a 420 00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:09,280 self-imposed cap on its aluminium smelting. 421 00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:13,680 So people who own smelters outside China are sort of 422 00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:16,640 starting to get slightly more confident about being a 423 00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:20,280 aluminium smelter. The people who own the alumina 424 00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:23,120 refineries, which was quite a sweet spot for the past, you 425 00:23:23,120 --> 00:23:26,160 know, decade, 15 years. The former a sex company, 426 00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:29,160 Alumina Limited did really nicely for a long time. 427 00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:33,160 So yeah, so that's a fascinating market. 428 00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:37,520 Coming back to your question, yeah, I don't know. 429 00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:40,160 Would be an awesome deal if they could do it. 430 00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:45,800 And Speaking of Simondu, I'm sort of also interested to watch 431 00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:52,000 where the Simondu is the, I guess, the first of many African 432 00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:55,800 iron ore projects. So our gut feeling is probably 433 00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:58,280 to say no. All these other smaller ones 434 00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:02,360 such as Ivanhoe Atlantic who are trying to take a Ghanaian iron 435 00:24:02,360 --> 00:24:07,600 ore deposit down through Liberia to the coast, Jin Min who are in 436 00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:14,000 Gabon, Zanaga who are in, I think, Republic of Congo. 437 00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:19,080 You know, common sense says these guys will probably 438 00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:21,640 struggle, right, to get their projects up because, you know, 439 00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:24,760 iron ore's past its peak and all the things we've said for many 440 00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:26,800 years. But the thing that gets me is 441 00:24:26,800 --> 00:24:29,640 the people behind all these projects are people with serious 442 00:24:29,640 --> 00:24:33,320 industry cred, you know? So Jen Min is Greg Lilyman, who 443 00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:37,280 ran Rio's Pilbara business for years and then was second in 444 00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:41,720 charge at Fortescue. Zenaga's got like a, you know, 445 00:24:41,720 --> 00:24:45,840 Bob Geldof style Band-Aid collection of mining industry 446 00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:49,280 luminaries from Mark Cudafani through to, I think Mick Davis 447 00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:54,040 from memory and Ivanhoe and Robert Friedland. 448 00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:58,680 Yeah, needs no introduction, so. And he got gone as well, yeah. 449 00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:01,040 Exactly. So that's going to be really 450 00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:03,360 interesting to watch if some of those projects can start to get 451 00:25:03,360 --> 00:25:05,160 up in it. You would have seen with Jin 452 00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:08,160 Min, who are SX listed, I think they did a deal with a Chinese 453 00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:13,360 partner the other day, you know, which got them a bit closer to 454 00:25:13,360 --> 00:25:14,520 reality. So that's going to be fun to 455 00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:16,800 watch. I think that's the secret to, to 456 00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:22,240 getting these projects into into production is, is partnering 457 00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:25,840 with the Chinese. There's, there's, yeah, the rate 458 00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:29,040 at which they can, they can build critical infrastructure 459 00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:34,280 to, to ship and and yeah, to to effectively rail and ship the 460 00:25:34,280 --> 00:25:38,200 product is, is just incredible. So you kind of you kind of need 461 00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:41,320 that. Hopefully Jemin wasn't planning 462 00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:43,400 to sell their iron ore in Gabbinese. 463 00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:46,600 What is the currency in Gabon? I don't. 464 00:25:46,600 --> 00:25:47,760 Know. Oh, you got me, Pete. 465 00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:49,240 Got me. You got me stumped with that 466 00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:50,960 one. Yeah, yeah. 467 00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:53,720 There's a lot of optimization that needs to take place to make 468 00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:56,080 these projects that we're talking about efficient and 469 00:25:56,120 --> 00:25:58,040 effective. And there's a company in our 470 00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:01,560 very own Perth here that I think is the perfect company to help 471 00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:03,480 them out with that job Switch technologies. 472 00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:06,520 Switch technologies, make concept through to deployment. 473 00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:08,640 Look no further. That's right. 474 00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:11,520 These guys are specialist engineers for those out there 475 00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:14,160 who haven't quite heard of them yet, be it mechanical 476 00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:16,800 engineering, be it software and every other form of engineering 477 00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:19,720 that you can think of. And they've got a sole focus. 478 00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:22,640 That focus is make your operations more efficient and 479 00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:24,480 save you money. What more could you want? 480 00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:28,680 I want to bring ideas into reality with an engineering 481 00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:31,840 solution that is as cheap operating costs. 482 00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:35,120 You know what I'm very interested in that and and I 483 00:26:35,120 --> 00:26:37,880 think I think the the best engineering partner you can 484 00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:40,240 think of to help with that problem mate, Switch 485 00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:42,520 Technologies. Call Mike at Switch Technologies 486 00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:44,120 today. Details in the show notes. 487 00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:48,600 Well, while we talk about the majors, the likes of Rio, we've 488 00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:51,280 got to move on to one of the other big themes of the year and 489 00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:57,120 that is big town M&A. So we got flavors of it in 2024. 490 00:26:57,120 --> 00:27:01,720 We had BHB and Anglo doing a bit of flirting and then we had a 491 00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:04,000 deal that looks, you know, much closer than that one to 492 00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:07,760 completing with Anglo Tech. This year more drama with BHB 493 00:27:08,200 --> 00:27:10,320 expressing their love for Anglo once more. 494 00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:15,160 So this is a big, big theme that we've seen this year and I think 495 00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:18,360 there's a few more more chapters to evolve on this one. 496 00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:20,840 Throw in the background mate, you had you had Glenn Glencore 497 00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:23,920 tech rumours in in major, major publications. 498 00:27:24,120 --> 00:27:26,840 Glenn Glencore. Glencore Rio was earlier this 499 00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:28,880 year as well. Yeah, for a moment there. 500 00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:33,400 Glencore Rio Yeah, lots of, lots of, lots of rumblings around the 501 00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:37,400 majors to, to to effectively merge. 502 00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:40,200 Yeah. And I listened to your episode a 503 00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:44,440 few weeks ago and I don't disagree with anything you guys 504 00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:47,320 upon where you effectively said that, you know, BHP will 505 00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:51,320 probably end up coming back for these assets some way, shape or 506 00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:53,000 form. So obviously now the Anglo Tech 507 00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:56,000 merger has gone through, but it still feels like an unfinished 508 00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:57,160 situation. Doesn't. 509 00:27:57,280 --> 00:28:00,000 It the votes, the votes occurred, but, but there's still 510 00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:02,520 a lengthy timeline to completion here because of all of the 511 00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:05,880 regulatory approvals that are required and and that doesn't 512 00:28:06,120 --> 00:28:08,600 completely shut the opportunity for an interloper. 513 00:28:09,560 --> 00:28:11,680 Yeah. And if it's done right, let's 514 00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:15,720 say, even if it does get done, even then it still feels 515 00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:17,920 finished. So I mean, it's a, there are 516 00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:21,640 more things in this than just those sort of flagship assets. 517 00:28:23,080 --> 00:28:25,760 You know, your audience probably knows, but really this deal is 518 00:28:25,760 --> 00:28:29,360 ultimately focused or you know, the biggest synergies available 519 00:28:29,360 --> 00:28:33,920 are QB 2 mines in Chile being put together to create value 520 00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:39,200 colour posse and QB. So let's say Anglotech does get 521 00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:42,280 finalised. Well, Glenn Glencore's still 522 00:28:42,280 --> 00:28:45,080 sitting there as a 44% shareholder in Colohassee. 523 00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:48,360 So there they are going to enjoy the synergies that would occur 524 00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:50,120 if these two minds get put together. 525 00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:53,920 They presumably will have some sort of voice in how they get 526 00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:58,080 put together and when and the terms under which that happens. 527 00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:03,480 So that that probably makes Glencore's copper business more 528 00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:07,400 attractive maybe than it was two years ago, arguably. 529 00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:11,200 Shout out if you disagree. No, I certainly agree. 530 00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:13,200 Certainly agree. And Glencore know how to extract 531 00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:14,800 their pound of flesh in negotiations. 532 00:29:14,960 --> 00:29:16,640 They were the exact words in my mind, Yeah. 533 00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:18,040 And they and they've been pretty vocal. 534 00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:19,600 They're not going to be a minority partner there. 535 00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:23,160 They want, they want to be big in that, you know, however that 536 00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:25,680 tie up emerges. Yeah. 537 00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:29,800 And they look like a company that just really is tired of 538 00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:33,280 waiting for something to happen. That was the vibe that I got 539 00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:35,840 from watching Glencore's Investor Day, which I think was 540 00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:40,160 December 3. And little wonder, right? 541 00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:43,240 Like, I jumped on the Bloomberg Terminal a couple of weeks back 542 00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:48,320 and I looked at the Glencore Rio Tinto valuation comparison going 543 00:29:48,320 --> 00:29:52,320 back to mid 2014, which is when those two companies, well, 544 00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:56,000 Glencore invited Rio to a merger and Rio said no, thank you. 545 00:29:57,800 --> 00:30:00,520 I don't, I've forgotten the exact numbers, but Glencore's 546 00:30:00,520 --> 00:30:04,000 market cap is sort of roughly the same today as it was then. 547 00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:09,840 Rio Tinto's gained something like, I think it was $86 billion 548 00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:12,440 in value or something like that. So. 549 00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:15,200 So it would have been a good deal for Glencore had it got 550 00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:18,520 done in 2014, Probably would have been a good deal for 551 00:30:18,520 --> 00:30:21,240 Glencore if it got done this year again as well. 552 00:30:23,040 --> 00:30:28,280 So, yeah, I mean, could you see a BHP or a Rio breaking Glencore 553 00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:32,800 in half and trying to take the base metals half possibly. 554 00:30:32,800 --> 00:30:35,400 You know, we saw earlier this year Glencore completed this 555 00:30:35,480 --> 00:30:39,000 internal restructuring process where all their carbon intensive 556 00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:42,520 assets are off in in one Australian registered company, 557 00:30:42,520 --> 00:30:46,280 everything from ferrochrome to coal and all those other things. 558 00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:51,760 So it's certainly easier now to break off the tasty bits of 559 00:30:51,760 --> 00:30:54,920 Glencore and leave the Brussels sprouts, you know, on the side. 560 00:30:56,120 --> 00:31:00,640 So yeah, it seems possible. But again, geopolitics comes 561 00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:03,600 into this, doesn't it? Because as you guys discussed on 562 00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:07,000 your show, to get the Anglo Tech merger done, Anglo had to agree 563 00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:08,600 to the headquarters being in Canada. 564 00:31:09,760 --> 00:31:13,960 Now, BHP exists in Australia under its own FIB ruling. 565 00:31:14,160 --> 00:31:16,120 The headquarters must be somewhere in Australia. 566 00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:18,240 The CEO must reside in Australia. 567 00:31:18,720 --> 00:31:22,680 So there's probably ways around it, but simplistically, BHP 568 00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:24,680 can't do a deal where they promised to put the headquarters 569 00:31:24,680 --> 00:31:29,280 in Vancouver. Rio Tinto also exist under a 570 00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:33,440 Ferb ruling. So, you know, these things could 571 00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:35,440 be worked around. You know, that could be the 572 00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:38,320 moment where BHP breaks off it's copper division and, you know, 573 00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:40,760 merges that with Anglo tech and keeps the steelmaking 574 00:31:40,760 --> 00:31:45,880 ingredients off to the side. But yeah, there's just these 575 00:31:45,880 --> 00:31:50,320 little complications that sort of make a few of these things 576 00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:52,880 difficult. I know like the big miners have 577 00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:55,800 all, you know, they've all covered it, Antofagasta as well. 578 00:31:55,800 --> 00:31:58,320 But there's big strategic shareholders who are hard to 579 00:31:58,320 --> 00:32:03,240 move and make that difficult. They even they even these days 580 00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:07,640 talk about Cadelco, you know, the Chilean government 581 00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:13,640 controlled copper miner. You know, it it sounds as though 582 00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:15,760 they've made the efforts to go and have the conversations with 583 00:32:15,800 --> 00:32:18,520 politicians there to say, have you ever thought about making 584 00:32:18,520 --> 00:32:24,680 this thing more more marketable? You know, you know, clearly very 585 00:32:24,680 --> 00:32:28,680 early stage, not formal offers. But yeah, like when you look at 586 00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:32,440 the available copper assets, sorry, copper companies that 587 00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:34,920 these guys could take over, there's sort of something 588 00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:37,760 difficult about most of them. Loon Dean stuffs to look like 589 00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:39,480 the your your mates at Loon Dean. 590 00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:42,600 What a great episode. If if money mine listeners, if 591 00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:45,280 you haven't gone and listened to the interview with Loon Dean 592 00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:48,960 boys, you should. It was terrific get for you 593 00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:51,320 guys. You know, that would make so 594 00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:55,080 much sense for BHP, but it's not cheap now, right? 595 00:32:56,920 --> 00:32:59,000 So. All of the great coal companies 596 00:32:59,000 --> 00:33:01,640 have these yeah, big, big shareholders to bypass. 597 00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:04,360 They're not simple, not simple deals in general. 598 00:33:04,360 --> 00:33:10,720 There's yeah, the, the, I, I do think a bit about like, you 599 00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:14,280 know, BHP coming back for Anglo and it was a great call by you 600 00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:15,880 last year to say that they would come back. 601 00:33:15,880 --> 00:33:18,960 And, you know, we think that there's every merit for them to 602 00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:21,360 come back again. But what why do we, why do we 603 00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:24,240 think that? It's because it's because BHP is 604 00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:28,400 starkly aware of, you know, how the, the very rich capital 605 00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:32,080 intensity, their own organic copper growth is and, and how, 606 00:33:32,400 --> 00:33:35,680 you know, likely and probable it is for that capital intensity to 607 00:33:35,680 --> 00:33:37,840 blow out over time because you don't realize it all straight 608 00:33:37,840 --> 00:33:40,000 away or as you get certainty in a deal. 609 00:33:40,240 --> 00:33:43,000 And it's that discrepancy and that kind of, you know, internal 610 00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:46,760 look that drives their external like, you know, M&A ambition. 611 00:33:46,840 --> 00:33:50,040 So I expect them to try and be aggressive here. 612 00:33:50,040 --> 00:33:55,200 And it feels like it feels like Anglo is the big prize to get. 613 00:33:55,200 --> 00:34:00,080 And I struggle to see them letting it go without having one 614 00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:01,600 more crack. What do you think, Pete? 615 00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:03,760 Yeah. No, I think there's perfect 616 00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:05,720 merit in that. Perfect merit in that. 617 00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:12,520 And yeah, to your point about BHP's internal options having 618 00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:17,199 relatively high cost to develop, there's also a fair bit of risk 619 00:34:17,199 --> 00:34:19,760 in some of them. So, you know, everybody loves 620 00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:23,080 what they did at Vacuna and they get a lot of praise for what was 621 00:34:23,080 --> 00:34:26,040 a precedent entry to sort of get their initial foot in there. 622 00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:30,280 And you know, they seem to have a high quality partner there 623 00:34:30,280 --> 00:34:32,880 who's sensible, calm headed, experienced. 624 00:34:33,320 --> 00:34:36,040 But you know, it's still like what, 5000 metres above sea 625 00:34:36,040 --> 00:34:39,120 level? A lot of humans don't operate 626 00:34:39,120 --> 00:34:41,880 very well at 5000 metres. And I know there is some mines 627 00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:44,360 operating at that height, but it's still going to be an effort 628 00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:46,560 to get that thing developed right. 629 00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:50,040 And geopolitics, let's ring that bell again. 630 00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:54,320 Looks great right now while you've got Malay in power in 631 00:34:54,320 --> 00:34:58,160 Argentina with his with his Riggy package, which not only 632 00:34:58,160 --> 00:35:00,640 offers incentives but also safeguards for foreign 633 00:35:00,640 --> 00:35:03,720 investors. But who knows what the next 634 00:35:03,720 --> 00:35:08,320 leader's going to be like? And to make the Vacuna project 635 00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:12,320 work well, they're going to have to bring the water up from the 636 00:35:12,320 --> 00:35:14,560 Chilean side. They're going to have to bring a 637 00:35:14,560 --> 00:35:16,600 lot of the equipment up from the Chilean side. 638 00:35:16,640 --> 00:35:19,280 And in their ideal world, they would export the product through 639 00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:22,080 the Chilean side. So this is Argentinian copper. 640 00:35:22,080 --> 00:35:25,720 So you're going to have to get the Argentinian government and 641 00:35:25,720 --> 00:35:29,680 society generally happy with that happening. 642 00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:35,200 Now, we've seen at Simendou the reason there's a 650 kilometre 643 00:35:35,200 --> 00:35:38,520 railway is because Guinea said if you want to sell that iron 644 00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:41,920 ore, you know, they used it I guess, as a way to get a 645 00:35:42,040 --> 00:35:44,840 transnational railway built, to get ports built. 646 00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:49,640 So it could, you know, step them up and they have resisted the 647 00:35:49,640 --> 00:35:52,560 idea to some degree of it going the shorter route through 648 00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:55,120 Liberia to port. So will Argentina, you know, 649 00:35:55,120 --> 00:35:58,840 will they will they sort of want some of Vakuna's copper to go 650 00:35:58,840 --> 00:36:01,320 out through Argentinian ports, which would be thousands of 651 00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:04,600 kilometres down to the coast. So I'm not saying that they will 652 00:36:04,600 --> 00:36:08,600 cause a problem there. But Vakuna is still a relatively 653 00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:12,120 high risk project, right? So difficult technical 654 00:36:13,200 --> 00:36:16,400 difficulty is pretty high. That's, that's a fantastic 655 00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:19,400 point, Pete. And we saw just over the weekend 656 00:36:19,400 --> 00:36:22,440 as well, the Chileans had a hard tilt to the, the right 657 00:36:22,640 --> 00:36:25,240 politically with a new, with a new leader coming in there. 658 00:36:25,240 --> 00:36:27,280 So we'll see how that kind of shapes up. 659 00:36:28,320 --> 00:36:32,440 You, you sort of mentioned the, the softish issues around the 660 00:36:32,440 --> 00:36:34,920 these companies and getting deals done and, and that being 661 00:36:34,920 --> 00:36:37,200 complicated. And the other big one that has 662 00:36:37,200 --> 00:36:39,720 been pretty present throughout the year is succession. 663 00:36:39,720 --> 00:36:44,400 So we've seen Newmont Barrick changed leadership, Rio Tinto 664 00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:47,440 obviously changed leadership. It was sort of framed, Henry 665 00:36:47,440 --> 00:36:48,720 announces. Exactly. 666 00:36:48,720 --> 00:36:52,560 It was framed as if this was a Hail Mary for Mike and Anglo. 667 00:36:52,920 --> 00:36:56,360 And that's a theme that's gone all the way throughout the the 668 00:36:56,360 --> 00:36:58,880 industry. How do you think that kind of 669 00:36:59,000 --> 00:37:02,160 shapes these these deals? I mean, the Rio example is 670 00:37:02,160 --> 00:37:04,960 really interesting, right? Because Simon's come in and 671 00:37:04,960 --> 00:37:08,000 there's been a complete shift and we're seeing the share 672 00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:09,560 price, like you say, hit all time highs. 673 00:37:09,560 --> 00:37:11,320 On the back of that. The market is really liking the 674 00:37:11,640 --> 00:37:15,040 the renewed vigor with which he has taken to to cost cutting and 675 00:37:15,360 --> 00:37:18,240 and getting deals kind of done. But how do you think that plays 676 00:37:18,240 --> 00:37:20,160 a plays a role in the deal making going forward? 677 00:37:22,640 --> 00:37:25,640 Yeah, it's a good question. I don't know. 678 00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:29,640 I mean, I think the fact that they went back as that BHP went 679 00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:34,040 back for a second go at Anglo in November, you don't do that if 680 00:37:34,040 --> 00:37:37,800 your CEO is a lame duck guy, you know, about to exit. 681 00:37:38,520 --> 00:37:44,680 So I think in hindsight that shows that Mike Henry was sort 682 00:37:44,680 --> 00:37:49,200 of perhaps more engaged than than, you know, many of us in 683 00:37:49,200 --> 00:37:52,160 the media sort of, I guess implied with our coverage as if, 684 00:37:52,280 --> 00:37:54,080 you know, any day now he'll hand over. 685 00:37:54,080 --> 00:37:58,760 I mean, he's now, I think if he it'll be August next, next year, 686 00:37:58,760 --> 00:38:01,480 if he makes it to sort of July, August next year, he'll be in 687 00:38:01,480 --> 00:38:04,400 the job longer than Andrew McKenzie and will be the longest 688 00:38:04,400 --> 00:38:09,040 serving BHP boss since the merger with Billiton. 689 00:38:11,000 --> 00:38:16,200 How does it shape deals? I don't know. 690 00:38:16,200 --> 00:38:21,520 I mean if, if BHP is of the same mind as Travis and thinks that 691 00:38:21,520 --> 00:38:24,920 there's going to be a window to get a deal done with Anglo 692 00:38:24,920 --> 00:38:28,440 whilst we're waiting for antitrust regulators and the 693 00:38:28,440 --> 00:38:33,120 like to rub a stamp the shareholder vote, then he'd be 694 00:38:33,120 --> 00:38:36,880 going nowhere soon, wouldn't he? He'd be there heavily engaged. 695 00:38:38,560 --> 00:38:40,760 So I don't know, I mean, succession's very, very hard to 696 00:38:40,760 --> 00:38:42,920 read. It's one of the, it's one of 697 00:38:42,920 --> 00:38:47,560 the, it's one of the topics that reminds me of the start of my 698 00:38:47,560 --> 00:38:48,920 career. I was a sport reporter. 699 00:38:48,920 --> 00:38:52,080 And so we'd go down to, you know, Richmond training in the 700 00:38:52,080 --> 00:38:54,960 AFL and, you know, interview the assistant coach and you'd have 701 00:38:54,960 --> 00:38:57,520 like a little tip off that, oh, such and such player's got a 702 00:38:57,520 --> 00:38:59,600 dodgy hamstring and is actually going to miss 3 weeks. 703 00:38:59,600 --> 00:39:02,080 And you'd ask them the question and they'd go, no, he's right to 704 00:39:02,080 --> 00:39:04,040 go. And then, of course, there'd be 705 00:39:04,040 --> 00:39:05,440 a late withdrawal on the Saturday. 706 00:39:05,440 --> 00:39:07,440 And, you know, that openly sort of knew. 707 00:39:08,040 --> 00:39:08,440 Yeah. Yeah. 708 00:39:08,440 --> 00:39:11,000 We lied to you about that one. And there was, you know, there 709 00:39:11,000 --> 00:39:14,040 was sort of no, no comeuppance for them. 710 00:39:14,920 --> 00:39:18,120 As a business journalist, right, Working in financial markets, 711 00:39:18,160 --> 00:39:20,320 continuous disclosure means that they can't really lie to you 712 00:39:20,320 --> 00:39:22,600 often. But secession is the one where 713 00:39:22,600 --> 00:39:25,840 you sort of get told one week, no plans, and then the next 714 00:39:25,840 --> 00:39:31,440 week, the CEO's gone. As for who would replace Mike, 715 00:39:32,360 --> 00:39:34,280 that's going to be a fascinating choice, right? 716 00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:37,680 Because if you just judge it on the publicly available 717 00:39:37,680 --> 00:39:41,960 information, there's absolutely no doubt that Geraldine Slattery 718 00:39:41,960 --> 00:39:45,920 is considered to be in a more senior position than all the 719 00:39:45,920 --> 00:39:47,800 others. You just have to look at what 720 00:39:47,800 --> 00:39:50,520 she's paid. You know, you just have to look 721 00:39:50,520 --> 00:39:53,320 at the, the, I forget what it was called. 722 00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:56,280 Was it the retention bonus? She got paid a retention bonus 723 00:39:56,280 --> 00:40:00,280 shortly after the BHP Woodside deal, which basically says 724 00:40:00,280 --> 00:40:04,360 thanks for not going to Woodside to be, you know, if not the 725 00:40:04,360 --> 00:40:06,520 senior person and extremely senior person. 726 00:40:07,960 --> 00:40:11,800 So she she presents as the logical choice. 727 00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:17,280 But you know, ACEO handover isn't you don't just hand it to 728 00:40:17,280 --> 00:40:20,880 the person who's next best performer or next most senior 729 00:40:20,880 --> 00:40:22,960 because it's a moment potentially of great cultural 730 00:40:22,960 --> 00:40:24,880 change, right? Like someone might go into the 731 00:40:24,880 --> 00:40:27,080 boardroom and throw them an amazing idea to pivot the 732 00:40:27,080 --> 00:40:29,720 company. Towards something else and that 733 00:40:29,720 --> 00:40:33,680 person gets it, you know, so there's dark horses in there 734 00:40:33,680 --> 00:40:38,640 like Johann van Jarsfeld, who's run a lot of the strategy in MNA 735 00:40:38,640 --> 00:40:41,920 in the past six years or so. You know, if the BHP board are 736 00:40:41,920 --> 00:40:46,160 minded to these sorts of creative things about deals and 737 00:40:46,160 --> 00:40:49,000 do you break the company in half to get a big deal done and all 738 00:40:49,000 --> 00:40:52,880 these other conversations, then, you know, people like Johann, 739 00:40:53,520 --> 00:40:56,800 you know, that sort of stuff's obviously Catherine Raw's beat 740 00:40:56,800 --> 00:40:58,880 now. And you know, everyone says 741 00:40:58,880 --> 00:41:00,800 Catherine Raw's too young and too fresh. 742 00:41:00,800 --> 00:41:04,960 Well, she's been a CEO of a company in the UKA multibillion 743 00:41:04,960 --> 00:41:07,680 dollar company. She's been CFO of Barrick. 744 00:41:08,520 --> 00:41:10,840 How much? You know, BHP has previously 745 00:41:10,840 --> 00:41:13,480 appointed a 44 year old in Chip Goodyear to be CEO. 746 00:41:14,240 --> 00:41:16,440 So yeah, it's going to be interesting to watch. 747 00:41:17,440 --> 00:41:22,840 And the, the Newmont you're do you still keep close tabs on 748 00:41:22,840 --> 00:41:27,600 Newmont Pete given the the, the Melbourne the Melbourne basic 749 00:41:27,600 --> 00:41:31,440 that was new Crest TomTom Palmer's announced his departure 750 00:41:31,440 --> 00:41:33,920 the exact same day that Bristow got booted. 751 00:41:34,320 --> 00:41:39,160 Seemed all very coincidental and and and now you know, very 752 00:41:39,160 --> 00:41:40,480 different reasons going on there. 753 00:41:40,480 --> 00:41:43,800 But the the the gold companies, they're having their own sense 754 00:41:43,800 --> 00:41:48,000 of of turnover at the top. I feel like, I feel like on the 755 00:41:48,000 --> 00:41:52,840 other side of that, you get you, you get trepidation to do a, a 756 00:41:52,920 --> 00:41:56,400 big deal in your, in your early term as a new CEO, unless you're 757 00:41:56,960 --> 00:41:59,520 super bold. And, and heck, Speaking of that, 758 00:41:59,520 --> 00:42:01,640 like we're seeing that from Perseus right now, like the, 759 00:42:02,160 --> 00:42:05,960 the, the, the new CEO is, is going kind of to full steam 760 00:42:05,960 --> 00:42:09,720 ahead on, on, on, on predictive, despite being, you know, in that 761 00:42:09,720 --> 00:42:12,400 top job just a couple of months. So it's not, it's not completely 762 00:42:12,400 --> 00:42:13,800 out of the realm of possibilities, but it is 763 00:42:14,000 --> 00:42:16,760 abnormal when you get a new CEO, especially one that's not an 764 00:42:16,760 --> 00:42:19,600 internal pick, come in and and do big deals right away. 765 00:42:20,320 --> 00:42:21,920 Yeah. And, and he's on that note, 766 00:42:21,920 --> 00:42:25,040 isn't it interesting that Simon Trott whilst has come in and 767 00:42:25,440 --> 00:42:27,480 been very active, it's divestments, right? 768 00:42:27,600 --> 00:42:28,960 Yeah, that's the easy thing to do. 769 00:42:29,000 --> 00:42:32,600 I think like cut costs, divest non core like low return on 770 00:42:32,600 --> 00:42:36,720 capital business units, simplify like I think those are the easy 771 00:42:36,720 --> 00:42:38,840 and right decisions for capital markets to really get behind 772 00:42:38,840 --> 00:42:40,720 you. And I'm, I'm a big fan of the 773 00:42:40,920 --> 00:42:43,000 public rhetoric we've seen out of Simon Trott since his 774 00:42:43,000 --> 00:42:44,920 appointment. Like he seems seems like a 775 00:42:44,920 --> 00:42:48,240 breath of fresh air amidst what seemed to me like absurdity 776 00:42:48,240 --> 00:42:51,160 coming from the majors for the previous five years in general. 777 00:42:52,920 --> 00:42:55,440 Yeah. And so as it pertains to 778 00:42:55,440 --> 00:42:58,400 Newmont, I don't have any particularly close insight on 779 00:42:58,400 --> 00:43:00,880 that. Like, you know, perhaps I 780 00:43:00,880 --> 00:43:03,440 shouldn't admit it, but I probably followed Newcrest 781 00:43:03,440 --> 00:43:05,800 closer than I do in Newmont today just because they felt 782 00:43:05,920 --> 00:43:07,880 closer. And I guess, you know, the ASX 783 00:43:07,880 --> 00:43:11,040 listing felt bigger and, and more real. 784 00:43:11,040 --> 00:43:18,240 But someone did point out to me recently that the gap between 785 00:43:18,440 --> 00:43:23,280 Newmont and BHP and Rio has closed dramatically in the past 786 00:43:23,280 --> 00:43:25,840 decade. Like the graph was quite 787 00:43:25,840 --> 00:43:29,520 staggering. So I think, I mean, I won't try 788 00:43:29,520 --> 00:43:32,000 and dream up the number. Your audience will be able to 789 00:43:32,000 --> 00:43:34,840 Google whatever the market cap is of Newmont on the day they're 790 00:43:34,840 --> 00:43:37,200 listening to this. But you know, it's sort of 791 00:43:37,520 --> 00:43:39,240 getting right up there. Like, they're a big, and with 792 00:43:39,240 --> 00:43:42,480 the increasing focus on copper, you know, at what point can you 793 00:43:42,840 --> 00:43:45,120 sort of claim to be a diversified miner? 794 00:43:46,240 --> 00:43:48,880 Zijin's the one to look at there in terms of creeping right on 795 00:43:48,880 --> 00:43:53,080 the the footsteps of of our BSP and Rio like it looked, it 796 00:43:53,080 --> 00:43:54,960 looked almost like they were going to overtake them earlier 797 00:43:54,960 --> 00:43:58,080 in the year. And they've they've they've held 798 00:43:58,080 --> 00:44:02,440 strong, but it's an evolving landscape at the at the top of 799 00:44:02,440 --> 00:44:03,760 things. What's been you? 800 00:44:03,760 --> 00:44:05,400 What's been your favorite deal of the year, Pete? 801 00:44:07,080 --> 00:44:11,280 Look, one that I thought was really fun was Lavato Resources. 802 00:44:11,440 --> 00:44:14,520 I think you guys tracked this the the little gold antimony 803 00:44:14,520 --> 00:44:18,760 thing in New South Wales. So for people who haven't 804 00:44:18,760 --> 00:44:21,560 followed it, obviously antimony was this sort of Off Broadway 805 00:44:21,560 --> 00:44:23,080 thing that no one thought much about. 806 00:44:23,080 --> 00:44:25,400 And then it became one of the critical minerals that China, 807 00:44:25,560 --> 00:44:28,600 you know, choked supply of prices rally. 808 00:44:29,440 --> 00:44:31,960 Next thing you know, the ASX announcements platform has the 809 00:44:31,960 --> 00:44:34,920 word antimony on it 17 times a day where everyone's finding it 810 00:44:34,920 --> 00:44:38,000 in their back pocket. But La Votto they had, they went 811 00:44:38,000 --> 00:44:41,080 and bought for like, I think it was like $2,000,000, this old 812 00:44:41,080 --> 00:44:45,320 gold project near I think near Armadale in New South Wales. 813 00:44:45,360 --> 00:44:50,000 And it's got antimony with it and just an incredible share 814 00:44:50,000 --> 00:44:52,400 price rise, like I think in the thousands of percent. 815 00:44:52,400 --> 00:44:54,680 And they're getting close to restart. 816 00:44:55,080 --> 00:44:57,600 And then, you know, we're probably talking approximately 817 00:44:57,600 --> 00:45:01,440 what, October, September, October this year, in comes the 818 00:45:01,440 --> 00:45:04,240 takeover bid. In fact, it was October 21. 819 00:45:04,240 --> 00:45:06,960 I remember now because it was the exact day that Anthony 820 00:45:06,960 --> 00:45:09,560 Albanese was in the White House with Donald Trump signing the 821 00:45:09,600 --> 00:45:12,040 critical minerals sort of packed thing. 822 00:45:12,040 --> 00:45:15,160 And here we had an American company trying to buy an 823 00:45:15,160 --> 00:45:17,520 Australian antimony company. So it was like for a journalist, 824 00:45:17,520 --> 00:45:20,040 it was like the perfect, you know, Segway of, you know, 825 00:45:20,040 --> 00:45:21,720 themes all happening on the same day. 826 00:45:22,640 --> 00:45:28,600 But the suitor was fascinating. United States Antimony Company, 827 00:45:28,600 --> 00:45:32,840 USAC and I, you know, I'd never heard of them, so I went and 828 00:45:32,840 --> 00:45:35,760 looked them up and have a look at their share price. 829 00:45:35,760 --> 00:45:37,800 If you think Lovato, it had a bit of a rise. 830 00:45:37,800 --> 00:45:42,640 This thing had gone from well, I mean, just look it up. 831 00:45:42,680 --> 00:45:46,120 It was crazy. And the bid, of course, was 832 00:45:46,120 --> 00:45:47,320 script. I'm not. 833 00:45:50,640 --> 00:45:55,000 And the, so you know, the Lovato directors, they go away and they 834 00:45:55,040 --> 00:45:58,240 think about it and they say, oh, we're going to decline this. 835 00:45:59,120 --> 00:46:03,240 And the reaction to the USAC share price is hilarious because 836 00:46:03,280 --> 00:46:06,840 I think what it's actually done. I mean, USAC probably thought 837 00:46:06,840 --> 00:46:09,360 they were being clever trying to buy while their script was 838 00:46:09,360 --> 00:46:11,880 crazily inflated. And they, you know, fair play to 839 00:46:11,880 --> 00:46:13,680 them. But I think all it did was it 840 00:46:13,680 --> 00:46:16,680 made people turn around and look at USAC and go, what? 841 00:46:16,840 --> 00:46:18,800 This thing's trading times earnings. 842 00:46:19,240 --> 00:46:22,960 And, you know, as a result, the balloon has completely deflated 843 00:46:22,960 --> 00:46:28,120 since as the market looked at US antimity company and said, holy 844 00:46:28,120 --> 00:46:30,760 crap, this is just this is like a cappuccino with about that 845 00:46:30,760 --> 00:46:34,040 much, you know, coffee and about that much froth on top. 846 00:46:35,160 --> 00:46:38,480 And so Lovato continue on their merry way as an independent 847 00:46:38,480 --> 00:46:42,520 ASICS listed company for now. And yeah, USAC haven't come back 848 00:46:42,520 --> 00:46:46,360 for a second crack. I suspect they probably won't. 849 00:46:46,520 --> 00:46:48,160 How about you guys? Anything out there that you 850 00:46:48,160 --> 00:46:50,120 found fun? I think we're in the midst of a 851 00:46:50,480 --> 00:46:54,160 pretty unreal one with predictive Robex and Perseus. 852 00:46:54,280 --> 00:46:57,240 We haven't seen the final chapter there yet, but it's hard 853 00:46:57,240 --> 00:46:59,760 to look past that one. Yeah, the battle for bank hands. 854 00:46:59,760 --> 00:47:02,600 Unreal. I've got, I've got one more that 855 00:47:02,600 --> 00:47:05,640 I've I've learnt plenty on. It wasn't anywhere near as 856 00:47:05,640 --> 00:47:11,320 eventful, but I thought what's now DPM Dundee buying Adriatic 857 00:47:11,800 --> 00:47:13,680 was just so interesting. I mean, we had been kind of 858 00:47:13,680 --> 00:47:17,960 critical of, of Adriatic that had problems ramping up, be it 859 00:47:17,960 --> 00:47:21,040 ground conditions, recoveries, these sorts of things. 860 00:47:22,160 --> 00:47:25,120 And the, the stock kept rising. They did so many fully funded 861 00:47:25,120 --> 00:47:27,920 capital raises, the stock kept rising and then they, they 862 00:47:27,920 --> 00:47:31,480 crowned it with a, with a buyout at almost an all time high. 863 00:47:31,480 --> 00:47:35,000 So I think kind of as, as an investor and, and as a kind of 864 00:47:35,000 --> 00:47:37,640 bystander watching that one, there was a lot of lessons to be 865 00:47:37,640 --> 00:47:39,440 learned there. Do you have any others come to 866 00:47:39,440 --> 00:47:41,440 mind? Just Speaking of lessons 867 00:47:41,440 --> 00:47:45,560 learned, like I think my biggest like, yeah, reflection on on, 868 00:47:45,960 --> 00:47:49,240 on, on come on companies in the last year is actually just come 869 00:47:49,240 --> 00:47:53,560 from looking at at min rez. Yeah, the turn the turn around 870 00:47:53,560 --> 00:47:57,240 story that's there. Like I was, I was skeptical of 871 00:47:57,240 --> 00:47:59,720 their ability to execute, but they've surprised me at every at 872 00:47:59,720 --> 00:48:04,920 every step and and and yeah, it's just it's just been a very 873 00:48:04,920 --> 00:48:06,200 impressive turn around story there. 874 00:48:06,200 --> 00:48:09,360 Despite kind of every every obstacle that was was thrown at 875 00:48:09,360 --> 00:48:11,000 them from from multiple directions. 876 00:48:11,880 --> 00:48:13,480 Operationally, things are going really well. 877 00:48:13,480 --> 00:48:16,280 They've deleveraged the balance sheet with, with some, you know, 878 00:48:16,800 --> 00:48:20,720 pretty, pretty impressive deals and they've executed Onslow like 879 00:48:21,240 --> 00:48:25,400 amidst some, some some hiccups on the road and the likes like 880 00:48:25,560 --> 00:48:27,320 in a, in a very impressive way. The volumes that they're 881 00:48:27,320 --> 00:48:30,840 exporting out of there are are, you know, truly commendable. 882 00:48:31,520 --> 00:48:34,840 Yeah, it looks as though they're through the hardest part of the 883 00:48:34,840 --> 00:48:37,240 cycle, doesn't it? It looks like they've sort of 884 00:48:37,600 --> 00:48:39,160 you can. They can now see the path out of 885 00:48:39,160 --> 00:48:40,360 the forest. Totally. 886 00:48:40,600 --> 00:48:43,000 In fact, I I even think they're out of the forest like the the 887 00:48:43,000 --> 00:48:47,200 debt now is it's it's it's very manageable, especially post 888 00:48:47,200 --> 00:48:49,680 settlement of the POSCO deal. Yeah, yeah. 889 00:48:50,000 --> 00:48:52,360 And with, with iron ore where it is like it's, it's just happy 890 00:48:52,360 --> 00:48:55,200 days, yeah. Yeah, so I who knows what 891 00:48:55,200 --> 00:48:58,080 happens on the regulatory front, but on the commodity side or 892 00:48:58,480 --> 00:49:01,160 asset selling front and operational front, you probably 893 00:49:01,160 --> 00:49:04,040 I think you're dead right question without notice. 894 00:49:04,040 --> 00:49:09,480 So feel free to blanket a deal that I haven't really understood 895 00:49:09,600 --> 00:49:13,400 and I'm curious if you have, is Z Gin Mining, you mentioned them 896 00:49:13,400 --> 00:49:16,160 earlier, the big Chinese gold miner that has gone from I think 897 00:49:16,160 --> 00:49:20,560 10 billion to 100 billion or so over the past nine years. 898 00:49:21,360 --> 00:49:24,920 This year they did an IPO in Hong Kong where I think they 899 00:49:24,920 --> 00:49:27,400 listed all of their non Chinese assets. 900 00:49:27,600 --> 00:49:30,560 Gold com yeah that yeah non Chinese gold assets. 901 00:49:30,560 --> 00:49:33,440 They they maintained an 87% interest. 902 00:49:33,480 --> 00:49:36,760 I think so. So they've floated 13% of the 903 00:49:36,960 --> 00:49:40,160 the gold assets and up 70% on day one. 904 00:49:40,160 --> 00:49:43,240 Just ripped an order, yeah. Off off the back I was. 905 00:49:44,560 --> 00:49:46,920 Just going to say off the back of that, Pete, I've just noticed 906 00:49:47,880 --> 00:49:52,880 tremendous appetite from from a variety of Chinese companies to 907 00:49:52,880 --> 00:49:54,800 acquire international gold assets. 908 00:49:55,000 --> 00:49:57,800 In fact, as we're recording today, Seymour just bought spent 909 00:49:57,800 --> 00:50:01,440 a billion dollars buying Equinoxes Brazilian gold assets 910 00:50:01,440 --> 00:50:06,200 like a few days ago, Ling Ling Bao doing the the the deal with 911 00:50:06,280 --> 00:50:08,400 with Simberry. Like there's just, it's almost 912 00:50:08,400 --> 00:50:11,160 every, every every other day there's a a different Chinese 913 00:50:11,160 --> 00:50:14,320 gold company scooping up gold assets around the world 914 00:50:14,320 --> 00:50:17,280 somewhere. That the Lingbao mob, I mean, 915 00:50:17,280 --> 00:50:19,800 that's very interesting. So Simberry obviously being an 916 00:50:19,800 --> 00:50:23,920 island of the sort of what, northeastern edge of Papua New 917 00:50:23,920 --> 00:50:27,120 Guinea, I think Lingbao, this time last year, we're talking 918 00:50:27,120 --> 00:50:29,760 about them. They were involved in the 919 00:50:29,760 --> 00:50:32,760 Woodlock Island, which is on the South side of PNG. 920 00:50:33,360 --> 00:50:35,240 It was held at the time and probably still is. 921 00:50:35,240 --> 00:50:38,120 Haven't done my research by Geo Pacific Resources, the ASX 922 00:50:38,120 --> 00:50:40,920 listed company. So I'd, I'd love to be a family 923 00:50:40,920 --> 00:50:43,560 on the wall in Lingbao headquarters because it looks as 924 00:50:43,560 --> 00:50:46,760 though they've got like they like gold, but only if it's on a 925 00:50:46,760 --> 00:50:49,720 tropical island. So maybe this is like a White 926 00:50:49,720 --> 00:50:53,920 Lotus style gold mine and I don't know luxury resort style 927 00:50:53,920 --> 00:50:55,640 strategy that they're operating here. 928 00:50:55,800 --> 00:50:57,160 Yeah, there. There's another little one as 929 00:50:57,160 --> 00:51:00,200 well Titan in Ecuador and Chinese companies have been very 930 00:51:00,200 --> 00:51:04,520 active in in Ecuador to Jiangxi copper another Chinese group 931 00:51:04,520 --> 00:51:06,240 there as well. But we butted in you were you 932 00:51:06,240 --> 00:51:08,200 were getting to a question on on XI Jin. 933 00:51:08,960 --> 00:51:12,240 I was wondering why, why do you think they've done it? 934 00:51:12,520 --> 00:51:14,040 Like do they just need a bit of cash? 935 00:51:14,160 --> 00:51:16,720 You know the the West Australian asset they own near Kalgoorlie, 936 00:51:16,720 --> 00:51:19,720 That is, I gather in the Hong Kong listed vehicle now. 937 00:51:20,480 --> 00:51:22,680 I believe so. Not in goldfields, yeah, yeah. 938 00:51:23,120 --> 00:51:24,200 Why do they do it? Yeah. 939 00:51:24,200 --> 00:51:28,560 I honestly, I just think the Hong Kong market has has had 940 00:51:28,680 --> 00:51:31,720 remarkable appetite for for gold exposure. 941 00:51:31,720 --> 00:51:34,800 And that's expressed in in many ways, some of the the, you know, 942 00:51:34,800 --> 00:51:37,760 the pure black gold listings there, but but separate to that, 943 00:51:38,120 --> 00:51:40,720 even like the gold jewellers were some of the best performing 944 00:51:41,440 --> 00:51:43,000 like listings on that Hong Kong exchange. 945 00:51:43,000 --> 00:51:45,800 So I just think I just think it it was it was something that 946 00:51:45,800 --> 00:51:49,640 just lowers their incremental cost of capital for for, you 947 00:51:49,640 --> 00:51:53,560 know, for for overseas, you know, gold, gold, gold endeavors 948 00:51:53,560 --> 00:51:56,680 as well by but if you have an elevated share price, lower cost 949 00:51:56,680 --> 00:51:58,400 of capital. Yeah. 950 00:51:58,400 --> 00:52:00,280 And there was there was massive appetite there. 951 00:52:00,440 --> 00:52:02,320 What what is interesting is it last week. 952 00:52:02,480 --> 00:52:06,280 So Chairman Chen, who's been a big, big entrepreneur behind 953 00:52:06,760 --> 00:52:10,280 Zijin's growth, he's he's actually stepping down from, 954 00:52:10,320 --> 00:52:12,000 from Zijin. So that's, that's a, that's a 955 00:52:12,000 --> 00:52:15,640 very big kind of succession transition departure kind of 956 00:52:15,640 --> 00:52:17,600 thing. Absolutely in that company 957 00:52:17,600 --> 00:52:20,480 story. And remind me a little bit of 958 00:52:20,840 --> 00:52:23,600 the other big Hong Kong listing that's relevant for Australian 959 00:52:23,600 --> 00:52:27,200 miners of this year is the contemporary Amperex, the big 960 00:52:27,200 --> 00:52:29,080 battery maker, China's big battery maker. 961 00:52:29,080 --> 00:52:32,600 They of course did a, a Hong Kong float of of some sort as 962 00:52:32,600 --> 00:52:35,440 well earlier this year, which, you know, if you're awa lithium 963 00:52:35,440 --> 00:52:37,400 miner, you know that that matters. 964 00:52:37,400 --> 00:52:41,480 And that my memory is that IPO launched spectacularly as well. 965 00:52:41,480 --> 00:52:45,040 Had a terrific first few days. Yeah, they're, they're fiddling 966 00:52:45,040 --> 00:52:49,000 with the on off switch at Jiangxiwu has been the yeah, a 967 00:52:49,000 --> 00:52:50,840 lot of ink has been spilled over that one this year. 968 00:52:51,320 --> 00:52:53,960 That's an interesting one. Should we move on to a few more 969 00:52:53,960 --> 00:52:57,520 predictions for the coming year? Before you do that, JD, I feel 970 00:52:57,520 --> 00:52:59,840 like we've got to, we've got to revisit what our predictions 971 00:52:59,840 --> 00:53:03,000 were last year. So we've just come come on the 972 00:53:03,000 --> 00:53:07,000 back of Pete asking 30 fund managers, what's the highest 973 00:53:07,000 --> 00:53:09,520 conviction prediction? What's the most non consensus 974 00:53:09,520 --> 00:53:10,680 prediction? What's the best performing 975 00:53:10,680 --> 00:53:12,400 commodity and what's the worst performing commodity? 976 00:53:12,720 --> 00:53:16,240 And JD and I actually answered those questions in one of our, 977 00:53:16,240 --> 00:53:18,760 our last episodes of the year last year. 978 00:53:19,160 --> 00:53:22,040 I'll, I'll, I'll let you, I'll let you hear how we responded to 979 00:53:22,040 --> 00:53:23,920 those and then maybe we'll come up with some new ones. 980 00:53:24,400 --> 00:53:28,480 Price conviction diamond price is lower in 12 months time. 981 00:53:29,240 --> 00:53:31,160 Lab diamonds continue to. Ah. 982 00:53:31,880 --> 00:53:35,320 High conviction pit be hard, but I'd I'd rest pretty easy with 983 00:53:35,320 --> 00:53:37,680 some of the met coal kind of names. 984 00:53:37,680 --> 00:53:42,440 I don't know if that's a specifically 2025 thing, but I 985 00:53:42,440 --> 00:53:46,360 think hold them in time. You'll do well on some of those 986 00:53:46,360 --> 00:53:50,400 names. So well, don't JD, I think what 987 00:53:50,400 --> 00:53:53,960 havens up up nicely diamond price, natural diamond price I 988 00:53:53,960 --> 00:53:56,240 think is down 5%. So we both did well then mate on 989 00:53:56,240 --> 00:53:57,240 the highest condition prediction. 990 00:53:57,240 --> 00:53:58,960 It's a one way Rd. I don't know if this is 991 00:53:58,960 --> 00:54:04,240 consensus or not, but I I think the Chinese mining equities will 992 00:54:04,240 --> 00:54:09,920 outperform the Australian producers of equivalent stature. 993 00:54:10,400 --> 00:54:13,720 So like yeah, you say gins your sign of mines. 994 00:54:13,880 --> 00:54:16,480 Like those sorts of companies would do better than the 995 00:54:16,480 --> 00:54:20,840 equivalent ASX listed car. Non consensus, pretty pretty 996 00:54:20,840 --> 00:54:24,040 beaten up, eaten into the cost curve, which we've touched on a 997 00:54:24,040 --> 00:54:25,560 couple times throughout the year. 998 00:54:25,560 --> 00:54:32,440 I think PGMS to narrow it down, I'll say plats or could go more 999 00:54:32,440 --> 00:54:37,040 nation, say Rhodium. We'll have a good year, 1000 00:54:37,520 --> 00:54:39,360 something nobody really cares about. 1001 00:54:39,440 --> 00:54:42,440 There's a few companies in in South Africa to kind of look at 1002 00:54:42,440 --> 00:54:45,120 not. Bad mate plants plants was like 1003 00:54:45,120 --> 00:54:49,000 up 100%. Mate, Chairman Chen back into 1004 00:54:49,000 --> 00:54:51,280 Asian, Yeah, also had a good, good year. 1005 00:54:51,280 --> 00:54:52,640 The Chinese did that before. Yeah. 1006 00:54:52,840 --> 00:54:53,920 Yeah. Well, mate, we're 2 from 2. 1007 00:54:53,920 --> 00:54:56,880 How good is this? I'll go tin best. 1008 00:54:57,840 --> 00:55:00,680 I think Tim will do well. Oh mate, 3 from three best 1009 00:55:00,680 --> 00:55:02,720 performing from. Not that Tim was the best, but 1010 00:55:02,720 --> 00:55:05,880 it did do very well and let's see if we can take the cake by 1011 00:55:05,880 --> 00:55:07,920 predicting the worst performing commodity. 1012 00:55:08,000 --> 00:55:16,440 Worst cardball up 117%. Gold underperforming. 1013 00:55:18,840 --> 00:55:21,520 Oh, we, we threw it away. The wheels came up at the end 1014 00:55:21,520 --> 00:55:24,440 there. That's UN Australian. 1015 00:55:24,920 --> 00:55:25,960 We cooked it. We cooked it. 1016 00:55:25,960 --> 00:55:28,240 Pete, you also threw some predictions out there. 1017 00:55:28,240 --> 00:55:31,040 They weren't in relation to those four questions, but we put 1018 00:55:31,040 --> 00:55:32,880 you on the spot quite a bit in our last episode. 1019 00:55:32,880 --> 00:55:34,800 Let's revisit how you did, you know, because we'll keep 1020 00:55:34,800 --> 00:55:37,600 everyone accountable here. One thing that should happen 1021 00:55:37,680 --> 00:55:42,640 there at Lahia is that that gets combined with some Barbara's 1022 00:55:42,640 --> 00:55:45,960 Simbari. Coba obviously is going to be a 1023 00:55:46,000 --> 00:55:48,800 scene of consolidation most likely. 1024 00:55:48,800 --> 00:55:50,560 There's some deals that can be done there you would have 1025 00:55:50,560 --> 00:55:54,000 thought. Interesting to watch what's 1026 00:55:54,000 --> 00:55:57,960 happening up in those PNG islands with Geo Pacific and 1027 00:55:57,960 --> 00:56:01,120 their close neighbor Kingston at Misama. 1028 00:56:01,120 --> 00:56:03,280 Who else is going to do a deal? We mentioned Sierra Gorda and 1029 00:56:03,280 --> 00:56:05,560 Spencer, Probably may not be next year but that's going to 1030 00:56:05,560 --> 00:56:12,000 happen sometime soon. I do wonder if some of those ASX 1031 00:56:12,000 --> 00:56:15,960 listed coal miners make sense to come together between the and 1032 00:56:15,960 --> 00:56:21,920 coal Stanmore New Hope to like make a more liquid register. 1033 00:56:22,480 --> 00:56:24,360 And I wonder what's gonna happen with Chalice right? 1034 00:56:24,400 --> 00:56:28,400 A few years ago Sabani Stillwater come into Australia 1035 00:56:28,400 --> 00:56:30,920 and they wanted us to know they were here and they were coming. 1036 00:56:31,760 --> 00:56:34,600 I wonder if they saw Chalice as their next thing. 1037 00:56:34,680 --> 00:56:37,040 If you're a company like Fortescue who still is saying we 1038 00:56:37,040 --> 00:56:39,040 still think hydrogen's a big thing and we want to be in 1039 00:56:39,040 --> 00:56:42,640 hydrogen, why aren't they going and buying Nell like and 1040 00:56:42,640 --> 00:56:46,200 instantly getting hold of what is it like 10% of the world's 1041 00:56:46,200 --> 00:56:48,880 electrolyzer manufacturing supply chain? 1042 00:56:49,080 --> 00:56:52,640 So Pete, I think I think you had some, some great, you know, Yep, 1043 00:56:52,920 --> 00:56:55,480 deal, deal predictions there, great logic, I think. 1044 00:56:56,040 --> 00:56:58,000 That's a zero out of about 15 isn't? 1045 00:56:58,000 --> 00:57:00,160 It you threw a lot of darts and none of them came to fruition, 1046 00:57:00,160 --> 00:57:03,400 but the logic was. When I counted back, I was 1047 00:57:03,400 --> 00:57:05,640 surprised because the the rationale was so good. 1048 00:57:05,640 --> 00:57:08,360 I mean, we saw a deal with Simbiri for 1:00. 1049 00:57:08,360 --> 00:57:12,160 We, we saw a geopacific deal as well. 1050 00:57:13,440 --> 00:57:16,400 Yeah, we didn't see the the coal consolidation there, but I 1051 00:57:16,400 --> 00:57:18,880 thought the thinking with with a bunch of them, I guess we saw a 1052 00:57:18,880 --> 00:57:21,640 deal in the cobar as well. We saw CSA. 1053 00:57:22,560 --> 00:57:24,960 Hey, Mark consolidation, I'm giving you 0P, sorry, but. 1054 00:57:25,880 --> 00:57:27,760 I'll give my I'll give myself 0 as well. 1055 00:57:27,880 --> 00:57:28,640 Yeah. Is it Cobar? 1056 00:57:29,120 --> 00:57:32,040 The Cobar district? Kind of fascinating that 1057 00:57:32,040 --> 00:57:33,320 nothing's happened. Oh. 1058 00:57:33,400 --> 00:57:35,160 It's it's, it's always a next year story. 1059 00:57:35,400 --> 00:57:37,160 Let's let's see how you fit on the other questions. 1060 00:57:37,160 --> 00:57:39,880 We put you on the spot for a. Couple quick fire predictions 1061 00:57:39,880 --> 00:57:46,800 for 2025 What will the iron ore, lithium and gold price be in one 1062 00:57:46,800 --> 00:57:48,960 year's time? Iron ore. 1063 00:57:50,040 --> 00:57:56,280 Iron ore will be 91 US lithium spodumain. 1064 00:57:57,840 --> 00:58:03,960 Cover your ears now. Tony Odeviano 800 USA ton and 1065 00:58:03,960 --> 00:58:07,920 gold I'm I'm getting on the Greg Robinson train, $5000 an ounce. 1066 00:58:09,200 --> 00:58:10,640 So I've got to give you credit there. 1067 00:58:10,680 --> 00:58:12,280 You had some pretty good predictions there, mate. 1068 00:58:12,280 --> 00:58:14,080 I think your predictions on commodity price were probably 1069 00:58:14,080 --> 00:58:17,880 better than any research analyst who who tried to endeavour and 1070 00:58:18,040 --> 00:58:20,560 predicting the same last year. There was some great kills, 1071 00:58:20,840 --> 00:58:22,840 yeah. Gold 5000 bucks an ounce people. 1072 00:58:22,840 --> 00:58:24,560 We would have laughed you out the door last year, but you 1073 00:58:24,560 --> 00:58:27,040 actually seem pretty damn close to reality, so well done. 1074 00:58:27,120 --> 00:58:29,280 Lithium was 800 bucks about a week ago, yeah. 1075 00:58:30,880 --> 00:58:33,640 And I know staying resilient. Yeah, well done. 1076 00:58:34,320 --> 00:58:36,480 That was great. Four points for for that one. 1077 00:58:36,520 --> 00:58:38,400 Let's let's see how you did on the the rest. 1078 00:58:38,760 --> 00:58:41,560 Will BHB have another bite at Anglo in the next year? 1079 00:58:41,600 --> 00:58:44,320 Yeah. Yes, I think so, yeah. 1080 00:58:44,400 --> 00:58:46,520 Look, look, the end of your question is probably the only 1081 00:58:46,520 --> 00:58:48,800 uncertainty, isn't it? Will it be next year or will 1082 00:58:48,800 --> 00:58:52,960 they, will they wait longer? But look, they've, they've 1083 00:58:52,960 --> 00:58:55,080 looked like a place that is a bit impatient. 1084 00:58:55,080 --> 00:58:58,680 And I don't say that as a criticism, but Mike Henry and 1085 00:58:58,680 --> 00:59:00,640 Ken McKenzie are not going to die wondering. 1086 00:59:00,640 --> 00:59:02,920 They've made that abundantly clear these past few years. 1087 00:59:03,360 --> 00:59:04,480 That's a stellar code. I don't pay. 1088 00:59:04,840 --> 00:59:08,560 What's the big theme that we reflect back on in 12 months 1089 00:59:08,560 --> 00:59:15,520 time? Maybe the AFR takeover bid for 1090 00:59:15,520 --> 00:59:20,760 money or five. Still waiting for that one. 1091 00:59:20,760 --> 00:59:23,080 Pete, we're done. Look forward. 1092 00:59:23,120 --> 00:59:26,800 To that. We're that close. 1093 00:59:28,360 --> 00:59:31,920 No, the the rationale with BHP and Anglo as we kind of touched 1094 00:59:31,920 --> 00:59:34,360 on before was was great as well. So I thought there was some 1095 00:59:34,360 --> 00:59:37,720 really good picks and I'm very keen to hear what you've got in 1096 00:59:37,720 --> 00:59:38,800 store. Should we run through a few for 1097 00:59:38,800 --> 00:59:40,880 2026 guys? I have to think about how he's 1098 00:59:40,880 --> 00:59:42,680 like 10 minutes before we started recording, mate. 1099 00:59:42,680 --> 00:59:44,400 So Pete, why don't you kick us off? 1100 00:59:44,400 --> 00:59:46,280 What's your highest conviction prediction for the year ahead? 1101 00:59:48,080 --> 00:59:53,400 I think if you think about the top five ASX listed gold miners, 1102 00:59:53,440 --> 00:59:57,560 Yep, I think there'll be a new entrant by this time next year. 1103 00:59:58,200 --> 01:00:01,400 And really, predicting this within one year is probably a 1104 01:00:01,400 --> 01:00:02,600 bit bullish. It's probably a two to 1105 01:00:02,600 --> 01:00:04,640 three-year call. But for the sake of the theatre, 1106 01:00:04,640 --> 01:00:06,640 let's do it for this time next year. 1107 01:00:07,480 --> 01:00:11,080 Top five ASX gold miner Endura Mining. 1108 01:00:12,320 --> 01:00:14,680 Wow. So your audience who aren't 1109 01:00:14,680 --> 01:00:17,400 familiar with this, this is a privately held company that 1110 01:00:17,840 --> 01:00:21,600 largely owned by Australian Super and it is. 1111 01:00:21,840 --> 01:00:24,440 The leadership of this company is * studded. 1112 01:00:24,440 --> 01:00:28,200 You've got directors basically from all of the big ASX listed 1113 01:00:28,200 --> 01:00:30,080 gold miners. You've got Jake Klein from 1114 01:00:30,080 --> 01:00:33,760 Evolution as the chairman, Bob Vassey, the former St. 1115 01:00:33,760 --> 01:00:36,600 Barbara CEO. And now what is the chairman of 1116 01:00:36,960 --> 01:00:38,520 Remelius? Is that right? 1117 01:00:38,640 --> 01:00:45,160 Yes, you've got a director on there, Tony Keenan, Northern 1118 01:00:45,160 --> 01:00:46,240 Star. Correct me if I'm wrong. 1119 01:00:47,360 --> 01:00:52,160 Is it miss, Miss Langer from Genesis? 1120 01:00:52,520 --> 01:00:57,360 Shout out if I'm wrong. So anyway, you've got this weird 1121 01:00:57,360 --> 01:01:00,800 thing where all of the big gold miners are allowing their 1122 01:01:00,800 --> 01:01:05,560 directors to go onto this other thing privately held with 1123 01:01:05,560 --> 01:01:09,720 Australia's biggest Superfund involved and all for like some 1124 01:01:10,080 --> 01:01:15,360 little thing in New Zealand. So it's, it almost feels like a 1125 01:01:15,360 --> 01:01:20,080 hobby farm, right? It's like, but so surely this 1126 01:01:20,080 --> 01:01:24,800 thing is actually made for greater honours. 1127 01:01:25,040 --> 01:01:27,000 It will be a vehicle to do something like it. 1128 01:01:27,880 --> 01:01:30,560 And I've racked my brain as to what they could do right? 1129 01:01:30,560 --> 01:01:34,920 Like, you know, Oceana Gold's got 2 gold mines in New Zealand. 1130 01:01:34,920 --> 01:01:39,240 Does this thing end up buying them or, or what does it do? 1131 01:01:40,040 --> 01:01:42,480 And the thing that fascinates me most, so it's already pretty 1132 01:01:42,480 --> 01:01:44,640 high-powered and pretty star-studded just for those 1133 01:01:44,640 --> 01:01:47,640 names that I've mentioned and, you know, Australian Super, no 1134 01:01:47,680 --> 01:01:51,320 one's got more money really. But in my conversations with the 1135 01:01:51,320 --> 01:01:55,600 big multinational diversified miners, they are strangely 1136 01:01:55,600 --> 01:01:59,320 conscious of this thing and I can't really work out why, but 1137 01:01:59,320 --> 01:02:05,240 they are taking notice of it. So I'd watch this space. 1138 01:02:06,320 --> 01:02:08,160 I like it. That's a big, that's a big 1139 01:02:08,160 --> 01:02:10,760 prediction for in the space of one year to go from private to 1140 01:02:10,800 --> 01:02:13,160 top five, a big goal. Nice, Pete. 1141 01:02:13,520 --> 01:02:15,960 What's the bar? There's a $5 billion company to 1142 01:02:15,960 --> 01:02:16,840 be the top five. It's. 1143 01:02:18,880 --> 01:02:20,360 Probably higher now, probably a bit high. 1144 01:02:20,360 --> 01:02:22,240 Yeah, maybe Genesis rounds it out. 1145 01:02:22,320 --> 01:02:27,360 Yeah, I like it, Pete, highest conviction prediction just like 1146 01:02:27,360 --> 01:02:29,120 you. I'll, I'll have a bit of a, a 1147 01:02:30,680 --> 01:02:33,600 caveat that I think this plays out over a few more years, but I 1148 01:02:33,600 --> 01:02:35,560 just think the energy space, when I look across the 1149 01:02:35,560 --> 01:02:38,760 commodities and think about what's, what's really beaten up, 1150 01:02:39,280 --> 01:02:43,240 I think the, the energy names and I think you can sort of 1151 01:02:43,240 --> 01:02:45,920 search high and low. The ASX really doesn't have too 1152 01:02:45,920 --> 01:02:48,880 many of these names. I think there's names in even 1153 01:02:48,880 --> 01:02:51,120 weirder kind of parts of the world in, in the North Seas 1154 01:02:51,120 --> 01:02:53,400 ones. We've spoken about Trev, where 1155 01:02:53,440 --> 01:02:56,920 you're getting paid nearly a 15% dividend to kind of wait. 1156 01:02:57,360 --> 01:03:02,920 And I think with, you know, oil under 60 bucks, you will get the 1157 01:03:02,920 --> 01:03:04,240 chance. Who knows exactly what they're 1158 01:03:04,240 --> 01:03:06,520 going to be in 12 months time, but you will get the chance to 1159 01:03:07,480 --> 01:03:11,160 to have have a bit of an uplift or get paid to wait there. 1160 01:03:11,160 --> 01:03:13,360 So that's one I'm kind of comfortable in. 1161 01:03:13,360 --> 01:03:18,200 What about you, Trev? Nice, 2025 was a was a year of 1162 01:03:18,560 --> 01:03:21,720 massive margin expansion for especially, especially gold 1163 01:03:21,720 --> 01:03:26,840 producers, right? And I, I'm still still bullish 1164 01:03:26,840 --> 01:03:31,560 gold, don't get me wrong, but I think, I think 2026 royalty 1165 01:03:31,560 --> 01:03:33,680 companies are going to outperform because like to your 1166 01:03:33,680 --> 01:03:36,840 thesis as well, If you have, if you have the energy complex come 1167 01:03:36,840 --> 01:03:39,200 up, well, that actually increases costs. 1168 01:03:39,520 --> 01:03:42,760 And, and you, you know, you might actually have a very 1169 01:03:42,760 --> 01:03:45,720 healthy like gold price outlook, but you could still experience 1170 01:03:45,720 --> 01:03:47,520 margin compression. And when there's margin 1171 01:03:47,520 --> 01:03:50,560 compression in the miners like it's, it's still gravy for the 1172 01:03:50,560 --> 01:03:52,960 royalty companies because guess what, royalties don't have 1173 01:03:52,960 --> 01:03:55,600 costs. So I'm banking on royalties 1174 01:03:55,600 --> 01:03:59,520 versus -2026. I like it Pete. 1175 01:03:59,920 --> 01:04:05,320 Non consensus view. Just on royalties, before we 1176 01:04:05,320 --> 01:04:08,000 move on, if I may slightly hijack your show, did you see 1177 01:04:08,320 --> 01:04:11,880 the Black Rock World Mining Trust sold at a great profit? 1178 01:04:11,880 --> 01:04:15,600 The royalty they had on the Brazilian copper and gold assets 1179 01:04:15,600 --> 01:04:20,080 of what was Avanco became as minerals became BHP. 1180 01:04:20,120 --> 01:04:22,120 That was an interesting one, Yeah, yeah. 1181 01:04:22,120 --> 01:04:25,560 Something like the like the buy in was somewhere close to 10 1182 01:04:25,680 --> 01:04:29,280 million I think and they sold it for 13 times that or something. 1183 01:04:29,280 --> 01:04:30,560 Yeah. Royalties are amazing. 1184 01:04:30,720 --> 01:04:33,320 Like, yeah, they're true special assets. 1185 01:04:34,080 --> 01:04:36,640 Yeah, sorry, Jonas, what was the question? 1186 01:04:36,960 --> 01:04:39,080 Most non consensus prediction for 26. 1187 01:04:40,920 --> 01:04:45,800 Hydrogen, the commodity is to be on is back now. 1188 01:04:45,800 --> 01:04:49,920 I mean, I'm I'm really swinging for the fence here for the sake 1189 01:04:49,920 --> 01:04:53,680 of entertainment. But if, as I know, you guys do, 1190 01:04:53,680 --> 01:04:55,720 if you take the theory that you should buy stuff when it's 1191 01:04:55,720 --> 01:04:59,640 hated, hydrogen's hated. What's hated right now, you'd 1192 01:04:59,640 --> 01:05:02,280 probably say nickel and hydrogen, and hydrogen's 1193 01:05:02,280 --> 01:05:06,520 probably hated even more. So I can't really give you a 1194 01:05:06,520 --> 01:05:09,320 credible reason as to why hydrogen is going to have a 1195 01:05:09,320 --> 01:05:13,280 Goodyear, only that, you know, maybe the elastic band is being 1196 01:05:13,280 --> 01:05:15,920 pulled back in a negative direction far enough that you 1197 01:05:15,920 --> 01:05:22,040 know it'll come back a bit. The thing about hydrogen also is 1198 01:05:22,040 --> 01:05:25,720 that you can play it through an ETF. 1199 01:05:25,800 --> 01:05:29,240 You know, there are some ETFs that hold, you know, a basket of 1200 01:05:29,240 --> 01:05:31,920 20 hydrogen stocks. 19 are probably scams. 1201 01:05:32,680 --> 01:05:37,920 Yeah, 19 of them will probably go broke, but if one of them 1202 01:05:37,920 --> 01:05:39,600 goes right, you might go pretty well. 1203 01:05:39,720 --> 01:05:41,400 Sorry. So I look forward to this being 1204 01:05:41,400 --> 01:05:45,640 replayed in a year's time when, yeah, hydrogen's been erased 1205 01:05:45,640 --> 01:05:47,520 from the human dictionary. I like it. 1206 01:05:47,960 --> 01:05:49,880 I I dread this being played in a year's time. 1207 01:05:49,880 --> 01:05:51,480 Trev, have you got a non consensus for you? 1208 01:05:51,880 --> 01:05:56,920 I, I, I do and I'll before I give mine, I kind of like you 1209 01:05:56,920 --> 01:05:59,760 thinking on what's hated. So I was, I was pitching to JD 1210 01:05:59,760 --> 01:06:03,160 the other day, but look at carbon credit markets, like 1211 01:06:03,160 --> 01:06:05,680 surely they're a place to look for, for hated, hated 1212 01:06:05,680 --> 01:06:08,800 commodities right now. Anyway, I I'd deter because my 1213 01:06:08,800 --> 01:06:13,000 no non consensus prediction. I actually think another thing 1214 01:06:13,000 --> 01:06:16,680 2025 was the year of geopolitics influencing metals of mining 1215 01:06:16,680 --> 01:06:18,360 markets. And everyone talks about 2026 to 1216 01:06:18,360 --> 01:06:21,120 just be an extension of that theme or growth of that theme. 1217 01:06:22,040 --> 01:06:24,520 I think, I think 20. I think geopolitics is going to 1218 01:06:24,520 --> 01:06:26,960 matter less in 2026 than it did in 2025. 1219 01:06:27,240 --> 01:06:31,320 I think it's peak geopol in the same way 2021 was peak ESG. 1220 01:06:31,480 --> 01:06:33,880 Like it still mattered in 2223 but less and less. 1221 01:06:34,080 --> 01:06:37,000 And I think I think 25 is peak geopolitics. 1222 01:06:39,480 --> 01:06:43,000 I like that so. Would you extend that, Trev, to 1223 01:06:43,000 --> 01:06:48,880 say that there will be a, a sort of a coming back together of 1224 01:06:48,880 --> 01:06:50,680 China and the US? Is that what we're going to see? 1225 01:06:50,680 --> 01:06:53,560 A bear hug between Donald and GE? 1226 01:06:54,560 --> 01:06:59,080 I'm no expert on this, but, but I, but I think, I think a deal 1227 01:06:59,080 --> 01:07:00,960 will happen at some stage there. Yeah. 1228 01:07:01,680 --> 01:07:05,680 And the and the deal by the way, probably will see, yeah, the US 1229 01:07:05,800 --> 01:07:10,120 leave the Asia Pacific, which will be a very, very interesting 1230 01:07:10,120 --> 01:07:13,280 new world order for Australia. We'll have lots of very 1231 01:07:13,280 --> 01:07:19,400 affordable railroads. Very good. 1232 01:07:20,000 --> 01:07:25,920 I'll throw 1 into the mix. PGMS to outperform versus gold. 1233 01:07:26,200 --> 01:07:29,000 So gold has obviously done phenomenal. 1234 01:07:29,160 --> 01:07:33,040 That ratio is out of whack and it has been for a long time. 1235 01:07:33,040 --> 01:07:34,720 So who's to say it'll close this year. 1236 01:07:35,360 --> 01:07:39,280 But you know we've seen the one between silver and gold close up 1237 01:07:39,280 --> 01:07:41,960 a bit. So I'm curious to see if, if 1238 01:07:42,080 --> 01:07:47,560 platinum, which is aged gold this this year and that kind of 1239 01:07:47,560 --> 01:07:49,880 basket, the PGM basket, I'm curious to see whether that 1240 01:07:50,200 --> 01:07:55,840 continues to to kind of close its gap after 15 years of of 1241 01:07:55,840 --> 01:07:58,960 kind of shocking performance. And I'll throw one more into the 1242 01:07:58,960 --> 01:08:00,840 mix as well. We kind of live in a world where 1243 01:08:00,840 --> 01:08:03,520 volatility has been just on the nose. 1244 01:08:03,600 --> 01:08:07,600 So I think volatility will will rise. 1245 01:08:07,600 --> 01:08:10,120 We have plenty of ATS in which you can play this. 1246 01:08:10,680 --> 01:08:14,800 And yeah, I think we've seen these big spikes. 1247 01:08:14,800 --> 01:08:17,720 You know, there's probably been three or four or five over the 1248 01:08:17,720 --> 01:08:20,319 last five years. Liberation Day is 1. 1249 01:08:20,479 --> 01:08:25,520 COVID is obviously a massive 1. But I think volatility will will 1250 01:08:25,520 --> 01:08:28,279 come back as the world keeps heading in the direction it is 1251 01:08:28,279 --> 01:08:32,080 going. Next up is best commodity. 1252 01:08:32,760 --> 01:08:34,080 Who's going to go first here, Pete? 1253 01:08:34,840 --> 01:08:37,439 Well, I've I've kind of have gone hydrogen, but why don't I 1254 01:08:37,439 --> 01:08:41,439 throw in? I was going to throw a nickel 1255 01:08:41,439 --> 01:08:48,120 just because it's hated. But maybe, maybe met coal. 1256 01:08:49,200 --> 01:08:53,279 Maybe met coal just based on, I don't know, there's a complex 1257 01:08:53,640 --> 01:08:57,240 interplay happening at the moment between China and the US, 1258 01:08:57,240 --> 01:09:00,399 sorry, between China and India on steel. 1259 01:09:01,000 --> 01:09:03,680 You know, the, there are sections of the Indian business 1260 01:09:03,680 --> 01:09:07,479 community, the steelmakers like Tata who are fuming at all the 1261 01:09:07,479 --> 01:09:09,359 Chinese steel that's getting dumped in India. 1262 01:09:11,080 --> 01:09:13,240 There's a there's a lot to think about there for Australia 1263 01:09:13,240 --> 01:09:16,279 because, you know, the default position was the Indian steel 1264 01:09:16,279 --> 01:09:19,439 industry is going to grow dramatically out, you know, in 1265 01:09:19,439 --> 01:09:22,080 the next decade. And that that would really help 1266 01:09:22,080 --> 01:09:25,600 Queensland met coal exporters because India does not have much 1267 01:09:25,600 --> 01:09:32,120 of its own met coal. If China is going to continue to 1268 01:09:32,279 --> 01:09:35,200 produce over produce steel at the rate it is and, you know, 1269 01:09:35,319 --> 01:09:41,840 export it everywhere, does Indian steel growth occur? 1270 01:09:41,880 --> 01:09:45,479 And therefore, you know, does QLD metcoal miss out on that? 1271 01:09:45,479 --> 01:09:48,000 These are all sort of questions that I don't know the answer to, 1272 01:09:48,120 --> 01:09:52,000 but perhaps I don't know, perhaps if there's some sort of 1273 01:09:52,000 --> 01:09:56,280 deal, as we were mentioning before for China to sort of, you 1274 01:09:56,280 --> 01:09:58,480 know, ease tensions, maybe they'll be a bit less steel 1275 01:09:58,480 --> 01:10:00,760 exported. Maybe Indian steel will go 1276 01:10:00,760 --> 01:10:02,840 ahead, maybe metcoal wins, I don't know. 1277 01:10:02,840 --> 01:10:05,720 A. Bit of retrieve, yeah, Yeah. 1278 01:10:05,720 --> 01:10:10,720 How about you, Trev? I, I am, I'm pretty buoyant on, 1279 01:10:10,720 --> 01:10:14,920 on all commodities next year with the exception of a small 1280 01:10:14,920 --> 01:10:16,960 number like diamonds in particular. 1281 01:10:17,800 --> 01:10:20,520 But I'm pretty, pretty buoyant on most, most commodities I 1282 01:10:20,560 --> 01:10:23,280 think. I think like uranium, lithium, 1283 01:10:23,280 --> 01:10:24,600 gold are all going to have good years. 1284 01:10:24,600 --> 01:10:25,920 So the retail guys will be happy. 1285 01:10:26,520 --> 01:10:29,640 I think I'm still very bullish on TN and PGMS, but what I'm 1286 01:10:29,640 --> 01:10:32,280 picking to be the best performing, the best performing 1287 01:10:32,280 --> 01:10:36,800 commodity, thermal coal, specifically nuke current the 1288 01:10:36,800 --> 01:10:39,600 index currently at US108 per ton. 1289 01:10:40,280 --> 01:10:43,920 I think that's a, that's a cyclical low, I reckon. 1290 01:10:44,280 --> 01:10:47,440 I reckon, yeah, you've got a chance of a 5060% uplift on that 1291 01:10:47,440 --> 01:10:49,080 next year. Yeah. 1292 01:10:49,880 --> 01:10:52,320 Can't argue with that. And yeah, it might be a bit of a 1293 01:10:52,320 --> 01:10:54,840 cop out, but I've got a similar kind of basket approach and I've 1294 01:10:54,840 --> 01:10:58,880 got a bit of a basket approach on the the short side as well. 1295 01:10:59,240 --> 01:11:03,000 But I said rhodium and PGMS last year, I think they continue to 1296 01:11:03,080 --> 01:11:06,400 to do well. And the other one is energy and 1297 01:11:06,400 --> 01:11:11,800 energy is oil, coal and uranium. I think uranium's on, we've been 1298 01:11:11,800 --> 01:11:16,040 a touch quieter on lately, but I think that continues to to grind 1299 01:11:16,040 --> 01:11:19,400 higher. So yeah, I think maybe you can 1300 01:11:19,400 --> 01:11:22,400 mark me by averaging those ones, but I think they they'll all do 1301 01:11:22,400 --> 01:11:23,400 well. Which coal? 1302 01:11:24,840 --> 01:11:26,760 Newcastle Thermal. Yeah, yeah. 1303 01:11:26,800 --> 01:11:29,880 Cool. Worst commodity guys, what are 1304 01:11:29,880 --> 01:11:33,400 we bearish on? I'll double down. 1305 01:11:33,400 --> 01:11:35,640 Well, I'm going to make, I'll make myself a target. 1306 01:11:35,640 --> 01:11:39,760 I'll say gold because Travis told me that there's going to 1307 01:11:39,760 --> 01:11:42,120 be, you know, coming together between China and the US So 1308 01:11:42,120 --> 01:11:44,280 therefore gold, you know, suits. Jeez. 1309 01:11:46,360 --> 01:11:48,720 Don't put that one on me here. I don't want to be able to 1310 01:11:48,720 --> 01:11:49,280 count. I would have had. 1311 01:11:49,280 --> 01:11:55,200 That's like a 2028 prediction. Worst commodity and very non 1312 01:11:55,200 --> 01:11:57,200 consensus there Pete. What are you going for, Trav? 1313 01:11:57,640 --> 01:12:01,880 Cobalt doubling down here. Cobalt absolutely surprised me 1314 01:12:02,000 --> 01:12:05,080 that it's up 170%. That's not based on, you know, 1315 01:12:05,200 --> 01:12:08,120 supply really being curtailed. That's based on export controls 1316 01:12:08,520 --> 01:12:12,480 from the DRC. That supply needs to rinse out 1317 01:12:12,480 --> 01:12:15,960 and that commodity should fall. Yeah, yeah. 1318 01:12:16,080 --> 01:12:19,440 I've got to kind of, you know, build your own ETF here and it's 1319 01:12:19,440 --> 01:12:20,880 a basket. There's a few different layers 1320 01:12:20,880 --> 01:12:24,120 to it, so tungsten and antimony. I think these have just had 1321 01:12:24,120 --> 01:12:27,160 incredible runs this year and I think that'll incentivize new 1322 01:12:27,160 --> 01:12:30,920 production. NDPR is such a weird one because 1323 01:12:30,920 --> 01:12:35,560 I'm very curious what happens with the the price flaws and 1324 01:12:35,720 --> 01:12:39,160 what that then leads to for a kind of spot floating price. 1325 01:12:39,440 --> 01:12:42,000 If all these producers are producing and they're just 1326 01:12:42,000 --> 01:12:44,360 selling to governments or there's government agreed off 1327 01:12:44,360 --> 01:12:48,920 takes for 110 bucks NDPR, does that mean the spot price kind of 1328 01:12:48,920 --> 01:12:50,720 falls? I'm not sure I'll throw it in 1329 01:12:50,720 --> 01:12:53,360 the in the mix there. And then to round out my ETF 1330 01:12:53,760 --> 01:12:58,120 diamonds, I think I'll just pick up another 5% down and cobalt 1331 01:12:58,160 --> 01:13:00,680 because of the exact reasons you've you've laid out there. 1332 01:13:01,240 --> 01:13:02,600 So. Just to make myself really 1333 01:13:02,600 --> 01:13:06,280 unpopular, guys, I wonder, devil's advocate, should we be 1334 01:13:06,280 --> 01:13:09,880 saying copper because everybody loves copper, right? 1335 01:13:09,880 --> 01:13:12,360 It's like the Saint of the industry that no one ever has a 1336 01:13:12,360 --> 01:13:15,240 bad word to say. But isn't it the case that the 1337 01:13:15,240 --> 01:13:20,360 strong rally in copper prices this year was partly about this, 1338 01:13:21,280 --> 01:13:24,320 the tariffs, right, the physical thing that people were trying to 1339 01:13:24,320 --> 01:13:28,240 get the metal into North America ahead of tariffs occurring and 1340 01:13:28,240 --> 01:13:31,360 there's now some unnaturally large amount of the world's 1341 01:13:31,360 --> 01:13:35,840 copper in North America. So is it possible that the price 1342 01:13:35,840 --> 01:13:39,120 this year just rallied on a short term temporary dynamic and 1343 01:13:39,120 --> 01:13:43,280 that perhaps next year if some of the interrupted mines around 1344 01:13:43,280 --> 01:13:47,920 the world resume a bit of production and you know, and 1345 01:13:47,920 --> 01:13:51,520 this factor of trying to get it into North America fades, maybe 1346 01:13:51,520 --> 01:13:54,680 copper eases a bit? I think your thinking is is 1347 01:13:54,680 --> 01:13:57,560 really sound there, Pete. I couldn't put it in either 1348 01:13:57,560 --> 01:14:00,560 basket and a lot of that came down to what you said right at 1349 01:14:00,560 --> 01:14:02,560 the end there. It's just so primed for for 1350 01:14:02,560 --> 01:14:06,320 disruptions and we don't know exactly how they'll play out. 1351 01:14:06,320 --> 01:14:08,240 So I'm. Super bullish, copper, super 1352 01:14:08,240 --> 01:14:09,600 bullish. Yeah, the whole base metal is 1353 01:14:09,600 --> 01:14:11,120 complex. I'm like, I'm very bold. 1354 01:14:11,360 --> 01:14:14,600 Bold on, yeah. Yeah, I think there's a a lot of 1355 01:14:14,600 --> 01:14:18,160 reasons, but putting a one year timeline on all these things 1356 01:14:18,160 --> 01:14:20,040 makes it that much more difficult, doesn't it? 1357 01:14:20,800 --> 01:14:23,200 That's right. So yes, everyone's bullish on a 1358 01:14:23,200 --> 01:14:25,880 10 year view. But yeah, I wonder, I wonder on 1359 01:14:25,880 --> 01:14:28,400 a one year view. But again, look forward to that 1360 01:14:28,400 --> 01:14:32,000 being replayed in a year's time. And why don't we wrap up with a 1361 01:14:32,000 --> 01:14:35,080 few M and A predictions, Just throw a few more darts at the 1362 01:14:35,080 --> 01:14:36,960 board. Trev, I know you're a big fan of 1363 01:14:36,960 --> 01:14:37,600 M&A. I'll start. 1364 01:14:37,600 --> 01:14:40,320 With Pete, Pete's got great Pete, great logic and a 0%. 1365 01:14:40,320 --> 01:14:42,840 Stronger. Well, yeah, I'll, I'll lean back 1366 01:14:42,840 --> 01:14:46,120 on my Endura mining. That was my main one. 1367 01:14:46,440 --> 01:14:52,240 I still think maybe I'll just keep saying Spence copper and S 1368 01:14:52,240 --> 01:14:56,640 32 until it happens. I think that's fairly fairly 1369 01:14:56,640 --> 01:15:01,280 difficult to to not back in and it'll be interesting to watch. 1370 01:15:01,480 --> 01:15:04,920 Rare earths weren't it? I mean, we saw a lioness and MP 1371 01:15:04,920 --> 01:15:07,640 were talking. That sort of doesn't feel like 1372 01:15:07,640 --> 01:15:11,800 it can happen now with the big rise that MP had. 1373 01:15:12,400 --> 01:15:14,680 For a while there, you might have thought Neo performance 1374 01:15:14,680 --> 01:15:18,440 materials would be a target from someone wanting to vertically 1375 01:15:18,440 --> 01:15:22,560 integrate, and maybe that still happens. 1376 01:15:22,680 --> 01:15:26,240 But yeah, like, yeah, maybe, maybe I'll stick with Endura and 1377 01:15:26,240 --> 01:15:28,280 Spence. I like it. 1378 01:15:28,280 --> 01:15:31,760 I like backing yourself for a second year in as well, Travis. 1379 01:15:32,480 --> 01:15:34,120 I'll pick up on your Linus thread there. 1380 01:15:34,920 --> 01:15:38,880 So, so we've got news last week that Tronox is now getting their 1381 01:15:38,880 --> 01:15:43,440 lick of of refinery bucks. I was big on big on my theory 1382 01:15:43,640 --> 01:15:47,080 that Lioness would buy Luca. I've changed my mind Linus to 1383 01:15:47,080 --> 01:15:51,840 Bytronox. I like it and I think I think 1384 01:15:51,840 --> 01:15:53,480 they've got a common director, don't they? 1385 01:15:53,600 --> 01:15:55,520 Isn't Vanessa Guthrie on the board of both? 1386 01:15:55,560 --> 01:15:58,080 I didn't know that. Not that that would matter. 1387 01:15:58,680 --> 01:16:02,080 High, high quality, very proper person. 1388 01:16:02,160 --> 01:16:04,920 But of course. But yeah, they, they know each 1389 01:16:04,920 --> 01:16:08,080 other well, yeah. I've got a bunch of deal 1390 01:16:08,080 --> 01:16:10,560 prediction stuff there but I'll I'll save them for a later date. 1391 01:16:10,560 --> 01:16:12,040 I've got like 20 deal predictions. 1392 01:16:12,720 --> 01:16:14,120 Look like a lunatic saying them all. 1393 01:16:14,320 --> 01:16:17,160 Sounds like a bonus episode for the new year period while you 1394 01:16:17,160 --> 01:16:20,520 feed her up. Pete, you've you've spoken and 1395 01:16:20,520 --> 01:16:22,960 written about Lion Town over the year and they've actually popped 1396 01:16:22,960 --> 01:16:25,720 up on potentially doing a brine related deal. 1397 01:16:26,160 --> 01:16:29,440 Is that in your in your bingo card for next year? 1398 01:16:31,080 --> 01:16:36,000 Well, maybe I mean, I, I should probably stop making predictions 1399 01:16:36,000 --> 01:16:39,320 about Lyontown because in an article over the last Christ, 1400 01:16:39,320 --> 01:16:43,560 last year's Christmas period, I sort of made the point that 1401 01:16:43,720 --> 01:16:46,080 based on the crude mathematics of how much cash they're 1402 01:16:46,080 --> 01:16:50,560 burning, 1/4 Lyontown could be broke by this time next year, IE 1403 01:16:50,560 --> 01:16:54,520 Christmas 2025. And that didn't go unnoticed 1404 01:16:54,520 --> 01:16:58,560 down at Lyontown headquarters. If you're a shareholder in 1405 01:16:58,560 --> 01:17:00,720 Lyontown, you should be very, very happy because. 1406 01:17:01,200 --> 01:17:03,280 We're all shareholders. Well, there you go. 1407 01:17:03,520 --> 01:17:05,560 This is the Australian government well. 1408 01:17:06,120 --> 01:17:11,040 Well said, well said. Lion Town fights for its honour 1409 01:17:11,040 --> 01:17:12,560 in a way that I very much admire. 1410 01:17:14,920 --> 01:17:17,400 Maybe. I mean, so when Pilbara Minerals 1411 01:17:17,400 --> 01:17:22,040 or PLS as they now called went and did a spodge mean deal, I 1412 01:17:22,040 --> 01:17:23,480 don't know. We sort of looked at that and 1413 01:17:23,480 --> 01:17:25,760 said shouldn't you be diversifying? 1414 01:17:25,760 --> 01:17:28,920 And their rationale was, well, we don't have spodge mean is the 1415 01:17:28,920 --> 01:17:30,560 thing we have core competency in. 1416 01:17:31,600 --> 01:17:35,280 So I guess, I guess that's the sort of, that's the tension, 1417 01:17:35,280 --> 01:17:36,640 isn't it? Do you go and buy something 1418 01:17:36,640 --> 01:17:41,120 you've got core competency in or do you try and straddle both 1419 01:17:41,120 --> 01:17:43,800 sides of the lithium world? I would have thought it's they 1420 01:17:43,800 --> 01:17:47,560 need to get on top of Kathleen Valley first, don't they? 1421 01:17:47,560 --> 01:17:50,960 I don't feel like that situation's in control to be 1422 01:17:50,960 --> 01:17:53,880 going off and buying things. Well said. 1423 01:17:54,160 --> 01:17:57,520 Well said, Pete. In, in general, I think I think 1424 01:17:57,520 --> 01:18:00,600 the best M&A opportunities are looking around the sector and 1425 01:18:00,600 --> 01:18:02,480 I'll look at, I look at my own portfolio, what have I got? 1426 01:18:02,480 --> 01:18:04,800 A lot of it's undeveloped projects and I think are worthy 1427 01:18:04,800 --> 01:18:07,360 of of corporate action. And I think that that that 1428 01:18:07,360 --> 01:18:10,120 there's yeah, that's, that's like a, you know, the 1429 01:18:10,120 --> 01:18:13,800 mispricing. They're very attractive, very 1430 01:18:13,800 --> 01:18:16,920 worthy undeveloped projects. Like, you know, it doesn't take, 1431 01:18:17,120 --> 01:18:19,800 doesn't take much for, for a corporate to appreciate that 1432 01:18:19,800 --> 01:18:21,720 value and then price it appropriately with a deal. 1433 01:18:21,720 --> 01:18:25,920 So that's kind of a just a, you know, a female I'm I'm willing 1434 01:18:25,920 --> 01:18:28,880 to continuously bet on. I've got about 5 here and they 1435 01:18:28,880 --> 01:18:30,400 all fit that category. Yeah, exactly. 1436 01:18:30,520 --> 01:18:35,920 Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, Pete. And and another one to watch 1437 01:18:35,920 --> 01:18:39,480 will be interesting is the little known ASX listed company 1438 01:18:39,480 --> 01:18:41,320 called DGR Global. Oh. 1439 01:18:42,080 --> 01:18:44,480 Jeez, so. In the last couple of days, 1440 01:18:44,480 --> 01:18:49,600 we've seen BHP support a takeover of Sogod by the Chinese 1441 01:18:49,640 --> 01:18:54,160 company Jiangxi Copper. Now, this ASX listed company 1442 01:18:54,160 --> 01:18:57,080 called DGR owns about 6 to 7% of Soul Gold. 1443 01:18:57,080 --> 01:19:00,720 So notionally that stays worth what, like 114 million or 1444 01:19:00,720 --> 01:19:04,800 something like that? DG Rs market cap is 38 million. 1445 01:19:05,920 --> 01:19:08,320 And so on face value, you could look at that and go, wow, 1446 01:19:08,320 --> 01:19:11,120 there's a mismatch here. You know, someone's going to get 1447 01:19:11,120 --> 01:19:15,040 in and it will rewrite. Why isn't it rewriting? 1448 01:19:15,600 --> 01:19:19,040 Well, everyone can have their own views, but in the spirit of 1449 01:19:19,040 --> 01:19:24,400 do your own research, read the DGR annual report and look for 1450 01:19:24,720 --> 01:19:29,560 the many disclosures about the fact that you know there's lots 1451 01:19:29,560 --> 01:19:34,120 of places that the sole gold windfall will go before it 1452 01:19:34,400 --> 01:19:36,200 potentially gets returned to shareholders. 1453 01:19:36,280 --> 01:19:38,600 World's worst financing ever like. 1454 01:19:38,600 --> 01:19:39,480 Isn't. That fair? 1455 01:19:39,480 --> 01:19:43,120 Oh my God, but I that that that was abhorrent. 1456 01:19:43,160 --> 01:19:46,080 What that company did like 16 months ago. 1457 01:19:46,080 --> 01:19:48,800 I want to say abhorrent. No regard for shareholders other 1458 01:19:48,800 --> 01:19:53,680 than certain certain someone. Pete, you've given us a bit more 1459 01:19:53,680 --> 01:19:56,560 Christmas reading to do. Love speaking with you, as 1460 01:19:56,560 --> 01:19:58,520 always. Have enjoyed this chat. 1461 01:19:58,520 --> 01:20:01,680 And yeah, it's been a very eventful 2025. 1462 01:20:01,680 --> 01:20:04,240 Here's hoping 2026 is just as good. 1463 01:20:04,240 --> 01:20:06,320 I hope you have a great Christmas and New Year's period, 1464 01:20:06,320 --> 01:20:08,880 Matt. Likewise, and if I may be so 1465 01:20:08,880 --> 01:20:11,560 bold as to try and speak on behalf of your audience, thanks 1466 01:20:11,560 --> 01:20:14,160 to you guys for, you know, the big year you've had and keeping 1467 01:20:14,160 --> 01:20:15,840 it going. It was a huge year for you guys, 1468 01:20:15,840 --> 01:20:18,560 you know, with, you know, the great Matt Michael moving on. 1469 01:20:19,480 --> 01:20:23,120 And what you guys have done this year, I reckon reminds me of 1470 01:20:23,120 --> 01:20:24,880 when Buddy Franklin left Hawthorne. 1471 01:20:25,240 --> 01:20:27,720 You know, Hawthorne came out the next year and won the flag. 1472 01:20:28,280 --> 01:20:32,760 And when Gary Ablett junior left Geelong in 2010 to go to the 1473 01:20:32,760 --> 01:20:35,160 Gold Coast, Geelong came out the next year and won the flag. 1474 01:20:35,720 --> 01:20:42,160 So, you know, Matt Michael was a star, an absolute like star 1475 01:20:42,160 --> 01:20:45,720 quality is just poured out of that guy into a camera, into a 1476 01:20:45,720 --> 01:20:47,960 microphone. But even with his departure, 1477 01:20:47,960 --> 01:20:51,720 this is a great show that when I move around the industry I meet 1478 01:20:51,880 --> 01:20:56,240 so many people who love it. So well done to you and hope you 1479 01:20:56,560 --> 01:20:59,520 get a great rest and come back and do it all again next year. 1480 01:20:59,520 --> 01:21:01,040 I. Appreciate it Pete means a lot. 1481 01:21:01,160 --> 01:21:02,640 Thanks Pete. We look forward to working 1482 01:21:02,640 --> 01:21:05,600 alongside you after the AFR money of my merger in 2026. 1483 01:21:05,840 --> 01:21:10,200 No, it's a reverse merger. There we go mate, have you got 1484 01:21:10,200 --> 01:21:11,880 any? What else is left on your mind 1485 01:21:11,880 --> 01:21:14,560 before we say goodbye to the money miners for another year? 1486 01:21:14,960 --> 01:21:16,960 For another year. Well, chatting with Pete is 1487 01:21:16,960 --> 01:21:19,320 always great. He's a man who I get a lot of 1488 01:21:19,320 --> 01:21:22,600 value from reading his work and especially his deep dives 1489 01:21:22,600 --> 01:21:25,120 lately. And as to answer your question, 1490 01:21:25,120 --> 01:21:29,400 what is on my mind? Plenty of things that was, yeah. 1491 01:21:29,440 --> 01:21:31,880 I think we covered the highlights of 2025, but like you 1492 01:21:31,880 --> 01:21:34,400 kind of alluded to in some of your predictions, it could be a 1493 01:21:34,400 --> 01:21:37,080 few different things that we're talking about come this time 1494 01:21:37,200 --> 01:21:40,200 next year. So I'm very, very excited for 1495 01:21:40,200 --> 01:21:41,800 the year it comes, that it comes. 1496 01:21:42,320 --> 01:21:45,440 I think we're in a great part of the world, commodities. 1497 01:21:45,440 --> 01:21:48,000 I think it's one of the most interesting sectors to be in. 1498 01:21:48,400 --> 01:21:50,880 I think it's going to be more and more volatile as you kind of 1499 01:21:50,880 --> 01:21:53,440 got the a bit of a hint in one of my predictions. 1500 01:21:53,440 --> 01:21:54,840 Is there anything standing out to you mate? 1501 01:21:54,840 --> 01:21:57,840 What are you excited for? Excited for I'll change that 1502 01:21:57,840 --> 01:21:58,960 question. What am I grateful for? 1503 01:21:58,960 --> 01:22:01,600 I'm grateful that we've got the wonderful audience that is that 1504 01:22:01,600 --> 01:22:04,600 is the money miners whoever you are listening to this episode or 1505 01:22:04,600 --> 01:22:08,280 watching this episode. Yeah, I'm very grateful for for 1506 01:22:08,520 --> 01:22:14,240 your consistent consumption of, of our podcast and and hopefully 1507 01:22:14,240 --> 01:22:16,320 our our e-mail medium as well. The director special. 1508 01:22:16,680 --> 01:22:19,600 It means a great deal to us that there's a sufficiently large 1509 01:22:19,600 --> 01:22:23,160 audience out there that makes this a doable day job, and we're 1510 01:22:23,160 --> 01:22:25,640 very grateful for that. Could not have said that better. 1511 01:22:25,640 --> 01:22:28,880 We are tremendously privileged to be able to do what we do 1512 01:22:29,120 --> 01:22:31,920 right. And yeah, all that is thanks to 1513 01:22:31,920 --> 01:22:34,400 the money miners out there, so. Not just the money miners, the 1514 01:22:34,400 --> 01:22:36,920 partners too. The partners, the fantastic 1515 01:22:37,240 --> 01:22:40,360 partners, Sandvik Ground Support, we've been there almost 1516 01:22:40,360 --> 01:22:42,760 since day one. We are very grateful for the 1517 01:22:42,760 --> 01:22:45,680 support you've given us as well as some fantastic partners who 1518 01:22:45,680 --> 01:22:47,720 have come along the journey for the past year. 1519 01:22:47,720 --> 01:22:51,520 Focus the platform by Market Tech, Introlinks, Switch 1520 01:22:51,520 --> 01:22:54,360 Technologies and Exceed Capital. Thanks a bunch to all of you 1521 01:22:54,360 --> 01:22:59,760 guys for supporting us. Now remember, I'm an idiot. 1522 01:23:00,080 --> 01:23:02,480 JD is an idiot. If you thought any of this was 1523 01:23:02,480 --> 01:23:05,000 anything other than entertainment, you're an idiot 1524 01:23:05,360 --> 01:23:06,480 and you need to read out disclaimer.