1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:03,480 Right home money miners talk about a bloody aluminium and 2 00:00:03,480 --> 00:00:07,600 alumina and bauxite spectacular coming your way. 3 00:00:07,600 --> 00:00:10,200 And tell you what, if you want to move an absolute shit load of 4 00:00:10,200 --> 00:00:12,440 bauxite, MMS would friggin move that for you. 5 00:00:12,440 --> 00:00:15,600 Or any other bloody blasted Rock You can think of. 6 00:00:16,440 --> 00:00:18,640 They are the movers of it. That's all you need to know. 7 00:00:18,680 --> 00:00:20,720 Give them a bell. They move it, they mine it, they 8 00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:22,280 make you money. They can be a bauxite 9 00:00:22,280 --> 00:00:27,120 specialist, right boys? You've got the absolute OG 10 00:00:27,120 --> 00:00:30,160 legend of those three things I just said. 11 00:00:30,280 --> 00:00:33,680 This is aluminium Allen. There's no better way to to talk 12 00:00:33,680 --> 00:00:36,960 about him other than this is the guy you want insight into a 13 00:00:37,440 --> 00:00:41,200 market, which is pretty damn kind of nation requires like, 14 00:00:41,200 --> 00:00:44,760 you know, decades and decades of expertise to understand and and 15 00:00:44,760 --> 00:00:48,280 tentacles into China. This is the guy Aluminium Allen. 16 00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:50,520 He wasn't named Alan by accident from. 17 00:00:50,520 --> 00:00:53,080 Perth he was. Destined to be an aluminium 18 00:00:53,080 --> 00:00:55,520 expert. That was it's our boy. 19 00:00:55,520 --> 00:00:59,440 It was sensational yarn. We RIP it in or you want to give 20 00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:02,920 a bit of context. 2 bit two things one is this was probably 21 00:01:02,920 --> 00:01:06,400 top three favourite conversation I've ever had on this show like 22 00:01:06,400 --> 00:01:09,080 it was it was just freaking awesome. 23 00:01:09,720 --> 00:01:11,800 You can probably tell JD and I are frotham the whole way 24 00:01:11,800 --> 00:01:13,200 through it. The other, the other thing I'd 25 00:01:13,200 --> 00:01:17,280 point out is we actually recorded this right before the 26 00:01:17,280 --> 00:01:22,280 day before the news came out that, that, you know, this GAC, 27 00:01:22,280 --> 00:01:27,280 this bauxite miner in, in, in Guinea, which is owned by sort 28 00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:31,520 of the Emirates countries was having issues exporting bauxite. 29 00:01:31,520 --> 00:01:34,280 And so Alan in some ways is a bit prophetic when he talks 30 00:01:34,280 --> 00:01:37,440 about, you know, some of the some of the tightness in the 31 00:01:37,440 --> 00:01:39,640 market and some of the the challenges that come around the, 32 00:01:39,800 --> 00:01:42,360 you know, the world's addiction to Guinea, Guinea in particular. 33 00:01:43,080 --> 00:01:45,320 Well said. Alan is a true Gen and I think 34 00:01:45,320 --> 00:01:47,400 we've said enough. Let's cut to the cut to the 35 00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:48,840 show. It was a truly awesome 36 00:01:48,840 --> 00:01:50,160 discussion. Awesome, here we go. 37 00:01:51,000 --> 00:01:56,640 Alrighty, we've got aluminium Au with us here today and I think 38 00:01:56,640 --> 00:02:00,520 the the natural place to start this conversation now is why 39 00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:04,920 should people give a shit about bauxite alumina aluminium? 40 00:02:05,280 --> 00:02:07,560 That's a very good question. Why should they give a shit? 41 00:02:07,560 --> 00:02:09,759 A lot of people would say, well, they shouldn't. 42 00:02:10,520 --> 00:02:15,960 But I think when you look at the role that aluminium plays, you 43 00:02:15,960 --> 00:02:18,760 know, in society, look at the the different markets that 44 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:21,040 aluminium feeds into. This is one of the things that 45 00:02:21,040 --> 00:02:23,800 differentiates it from, you know, from steel or from copper 46 00:02:23,800 --> 00:02:26,920 or from, you know, some of these other metals is that now it's 47 00:02:26,920 --> 00:02:29,280 used all over the place. I mean, I'm holding a can here, 48 00:02:29,400 --> 00:02:31,080 right, which is aluminium, of course. 49 00:02:32,520 --> 00:02:36,680 And so it's packaging, it's construction, it's 50 00:02:37,640 --> 00:02:41,600 electrification, it's transport, it's consumer durables, all 51 00:02:41,600 --> 00:02:44,200 this, all these different applications, which makes it 52 00:02:44,200 --> 00:02:47,680 quite a versatile metal. So and kind of no matter where 53 00:02:47,680 --> 00:02:49,200 you look, you're going to see it somewhere. 54 00:02:49,520 --> 00:02:53,400 So people should care a little bit more about it, I'd say. 55 00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:55,720 Yeah. I think that the, the care 56 00:02:55,720 --> 00:02:59,440 factor is somewhat proportionate to the, you know, ability for 57 00:02:59,680 --> 00:03:03,040 people to get it like, you know, financial exposure. 58 00:03:03,040 --> 00:03:05,400 There's not, there's not like 20 aluminium stocks out there that 59 00:03:05,400 --> 00:03:06,200 people. To gamble on. 60 00:03:06,320 --> 00:03:09,280 Stocks for people to gamble on, gamble on literally. 61 00:03:09,280 --> 00:03:13,960 Yeah, that's true. Maybe if we're in like, yeah, 62 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:17,360 Zorgo or London or wherever the traders are, there's a bit more 63 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:19,960 not knowledge in this area. But here in Perth, like where 64 00:03:19,960 --> 00:03:23,440 people care, like interested in mining, despite the fact that we 65 00:03:23,440 --> 00:03:26,960 have a, a, a pretty substantial, you know, bauxite mining 66 00:03:26,960 --> 00:03:31,520 industry here and, and you know, refining industry here, we kind 67 00:03:31,520 --> 00:03:33,680 of don't follow this externally as much as we should. 68 00:03:34,640 --> 00:03:36,320 Well, maybe that will all change now. 69 00:03:37,360 --> 00:03:41,480 Because I think like one of the reasons those those sorts of 70 00:03:41,480 --> 00:03:45,000 people are interested in it as well, Trev, is because it's a 71 00:03:45,000 --> 00:03:49,280 market of serious scale. Like it's you go down the, the 72 00:03:49,280 --> 00:03:51,760 metals, you sort of have, I guess energy and all to start 73 00:03:51,760 --> 00:03:53,880 with. And then maybe iron ore, which 74 00:03:53,880 --> 00:03:55,920 has been a tough one for commodity traders to kind of 75 00:03:55,920 --> 00:04:00,000 crack in a way, but books out the whole complex, you know, 76 00:04:00,360 --> 00:04:03,040 aluminium complex is there because it's of serious scale. 77 00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:06,040 And you, you hear about trafficker and and other sorts 78 00:04:06,040 --> 00:04:10,120 of groups playing around and LME types of dynamics because it is 79 00:04:10,160 --> 00:04:12,360 a a market of serious size, right? 80 00:04:12,400 --> 00:04:15,440 Well, it is. I mean, last year I think 400 81 00:04:15,440 --> 00:04:18,800 million tonnes of books aren't mined worldwide, so fairly 82 00:04:18,800 --> 00:04:21,519 substantial and 100 million tonnes of that was here in 83 00:04:21,519 --> 00:04:25,440 Australia, so 4. 400 million tonnes of bauxite. 400 million 84 00:04:25,440 --> 00:04:27,240 tonnes of bauxite. Yeah, how much bauxite is 85 00:04:27,240 --> 00:04:31,280 required to get to like? Well, that's a very good 86 00:04:31,280 --> 00:04:33,560 question. And that's half the problem I 87 00:04:33,560 --> 00:04:35,800 think with bauxite when you use the word bauxite because you 88 00:04:35,800 --> 00:04:38,360 kind of think of this generic kind of this mineral, right? 89 00:04:38,360 --> 00:04:41,360 Yes, Bauxite is not a mineral. It's just a it's just a generic 90 00:04:41,360 --> 00:04:43,400 term we we bought in a few props. 91 00:04:43,520 --> 00:04:45,520 Some samples. A couple a couple different 92 00:04:45,520 --> 00:04:47,080 samples. Of that's right, one from 93 00:04:47,080 --> 00:04:49,320 northern Australians, a couple there from Guinea. 94 00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:52,080 But this is this is northern Australia bauxite. 95 00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:54,880 Yeah. The thing about the thing you've 96 00:04:54,880 --> 00:04:57,480 got to remember about, you know, the word bauxite is actually 97 00:04:57,480 --> 00:05:00,120 refers to three different minerals, right, Gibbsite, 98 00:05:00,360 --> 00:05:05,760 Baumite and diaspora, they're all bauxites and they're all 99 00:05:05,760 --> 00:05:09,400 very different. And so how you treat them is 100 00:05:09,400 --> 00:05:11,760 very different. So you know your the alumina 101 00:05:11,760 --> 00:05:13,880 refiner, it's going to process that those different types of 102 00:05:13,880 --> 00:05:17,920 bauxite now that has to be built purpose built for that 103 00:05:17,920 --> 00:05:22,080 particular bauxite. Maybe you start changing bulk 104 00:05:22,080 --> 00:05:24,720 sites and alumina refineries and it's a disaster. 105 00:05:24,880 --> 00:05:29,920 So is that that the the fact that the the downstream is so 106 00:05:30,360 --> 00:05:34,360 like like spec built to what whatever is being mined? 107 00:05:34,360 --> 00:05:36,920 Is that why the industry's evolved in such a way where you 108 00:05:36,920 --> 00:05:41,560 see so much of the the vertical industry integration is like so 109 00:05:41,640 --> 00:05:43,280 immediate. There's like mind, mind to mouth 110 00:05:43,280 --> 00:05:45,040 strategies of the of the. That's right. 111 00:05:45,040 --> 00:05:47,160 I mean it's called the mind mouth to refinery model, right. 112 00:05:47,160 --> 00:05:50,360 So what that means is that the that the refinery is designed, 113 00:05:50,360 --> 00:05:52,960 it's purpose designed for a particular bauxite. 114 00:05:52,960 --> 00:05:55,720 So the three refineries that are operating here in WA, Darling 115 00:05:55,720 --> 00:06:00,840 Range bauxite can't put, you can't put Queensland that stuff 116 00:06:00,840 --> 00:06:03,160 there in the jar. You can't put that into a 117 00:06:03,160 --> 00:06:06,280 Western Australian refinery. That's like putting diesel into 118 00:06:06,280 --> 00:06:08,600 a petrol engine. It's not going to work. 119 00:06:08,880 --> 00:06:11,840 And it's also. We all. 120 00:06:11,840 --> 00:06:16,840 Have to, to go one step further from the the sort of tailored 121 00:06:16,840 --> 00:06:20,640 specification of the refinery. It's also that much more 122 00:06:20,920 --> 00:06:25,080 uneconomic to do so and to to look into the seaborne market, 123 00:06:25,080 --> 00:06:28,280 which is a a threat that we might talk about a bit more. 124 00:06:28,280 --> 00:06:33,000 Yeah, yeah. I mean, I think to get to that, 125 00:06:33,000 --> 00:06:35,920 we've got to kind of wind back time a little bit to to to see 126 00:06:35,920 --> 00:06:38,960 how we've maybe got to that seaborne market and try to 127 00:06:38,960 --> 00:06:42,120 understand what the seaborne market really is today, because 128 00:06:42,120 --> 00:06:44,200 I don't think it's what people actually think it is. 129 00:06:44,200 --> 00:06:48,280 No, wait, wait. Like an aluminium like well, you 130 00:06:48,280 --> 00:06:52,920 know aluminium industry evolved relatively recently as well, 131 00:06:52,920 --> 00:06:54,280 right? Like what's the history with the 132 00:06:54,280 --> 00:06:56,480 emergence of it? Because like, I'm a student of 133 00:06:56,480 --> 00:06:59,360 commodity, commodity markets, but even I don't know much about 134 00:06:59,360 --> 00:07:00,560 this. All I know is that Rio paid too 135 00:07:00,560 --> 00:07:03,640 much at the top of cycle for. Sure. 136 00:07:03,640 --> 00:07:06,120 We'll get to that. Yeah. 137 00:07:06,120 --> 00:07:08,040 I mean, well, it's recently in that sense. 138 00:07:08,040 --> 00:07:11,120 I mean, you know, when it was first produced, you know, using 139 00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:14,560 electrolysis, you know, all those years ago, 1880s, it was, 140 00:07:14,760 --> 00:07:18,440 it was more valuable than gold until somebody kind of figured 141 00:07:18,440 --> 00:07:21,800 out how to make it cheaply. And now it's not. 142 00:07:22,000 --> 00:07:24,440 And it's so. So as a as a tech breakthrough 143 00:07:24,440 --> 00:07:26,120 that enabled. Yeah, well it's a whole Rd 144 00:07:26,120 --> 00:07:27,560 process. It's electrolysis. 145 00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:31,000 I mean the some things just some basic things about aluminium, 146 00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:32,800 right. I mean you know, you, you smelt 147 00:07:32,800 --> 00:07:39,640 it from its oxide AL2O3AL2O3 is is corundum. 148 00:07:40,240 --> 00:07:42,160 I mean you think of most scale of hardness, right? 149 00:07:42,160 --> 00:07:44,760 This stuff is incredibly hard. The bonds are very strong. 150 00:07:44,760 --> 00:07:49,320 So to bust it, you need a lot of energy, a lot of electricity, 151 00:07:49,800 --> 00:07:52,000 you know, to break it apart. And it's broken apart in the 152 00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:55,680 cell where it produces the, the metal and carbon dioxide because 153 00:07:55,680 --> 00:07:57,480 the anodes are the anodes are carbon. 154 00:07:57,840 --> 00:07:59,720 All right. So it's a big producer of carbon 155 00:07:59,720 --> 00:08:03,360 dioxide that in the now in the, in the technology that's used 156 00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:06,440 today. But it, I mean, having said 157 00:08:06,440 --> 00:08:09,960 that, if it's, if you know, you, you place a smelter somewhere 158 00:08:09,960 --> 00:08:13,160 where you've got access to low cost electricity and you've got 159 00:08:13,320 --> 00:08:15,480 access to alumina, then it's a low cost process. 160 00:08:16,840 --> 00:08:19,920 And you know, Australia's got a, you know, it's got a huge 161 00:08:19,920 --> 00:08:21,720 history in the, in the aluminium sector. 162 00:08:21,720 --> 00:08:25,840 We've had a smelter in in Tasmania since 1955 still 163 00:08:25,840 --> 00:08:29,560 running today, running very well and it's running on hydropower 164 00:08:29,560 --> 00:08:30,880 owned. By South 32. 165 00:08:31,360 --> 00:08:32,280 Owned by Rio. Rio. 166 00:08:32,799 --> 00:08:33,679 Sorry. Yeah, Sorry. 167 00:08:33,799 --> 00:08:34,799 Yeah. Bell by smelter. 168 00:08:34,840 --> 00:08:38,280 Yeah, yeah. And then if we we'll check a map 169 00:08:38,280 --> 00:08:42,039 up right now, if we look around the around the world, we can 170 00:08:42,039 --> 00:08:46,160 sort of point to the other kind of pockets where cheap energy 171 00:08:46,160 --> 00:08:48,520 and yeah, refineries kind of go together. 172 00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:49,840 Let me talk through that for a moment. 173 00:08:50,360 --> 00:08:51,480 There's China. Yeah. 174 00:08:51,720 --> 00:08:53,080 Then there's China. Yeah. 175 00:08:53,080 --> 00:08:56,520 Then after that there's China. I mean, China's producing 60% of 176 00:08:56,560 --> 00:08:57,920 the world's primary aluminium today, right? 177 00:08:57,920 --> 00:09:00,320 It's very different to 20 or 30 years ago. 178 00:09:00,400 --> 00:09:02,720 Very, very different. I mean in that period, right. 179 00:09:02,720 --> 00:09:05,160 And we'll get into the history a bit later, I'm sure. 180 00:09:05,160 --> 00:09:09,120 But if you think of the the, the period between about 2006 and 181 00:09:09,360 --> 00:09:13,080 2016, maybe a bit later than 2016, but China basically 182 00:09:13,080 --> 00:09:16,200 doubled the world's aluminium smelting capacity. 183 00:09:16,400 --> 00:09:18,960 So it would have taken the world sort of 100 years to build. 184 00:09:19,560 --> 00:09:21,680 The Chinese doubled it in 10 years. 185 00:09:22,480 --> 00:09:24,440 Same with aluminium refiner, because you need the aluminium 186 00:09:24,440 --> 00:09:25,720 obviously, to feed into the smelters. 187 00:09:25,720 --> 00:09:29,400 They basically built, you know, the world's aluminium and 188 00:09:29,400 --> 00:09:32,240 smelting capacity 10 years. Powered by cheap coal. 189 00:09:33,000 --> 00:09:37,320 Powered by mostly by cheap coal. Now there's smelters, hydro 190 00:09:37,320 --> 00:09:39,840 smelters and, you know, yeah, or hydropower and, you know, so the 191 00:09:39,840 --> 00:09:43,000 smelters have kind of relocated and they're putting in a lot of 192 00:09:43,440 --> 00:09:45,960 renewables right now. It's a gigawatts of. 193 00:09:46,120 --> 00:09:50,160 It's a industrial strategy that we've seen them roll out kind of 194 00:09:50,160 --> 00:09:52,800 subsequently in, in emerging industries too. 195 00:09:52,920 --> 00:09:56,440 Yeah, you know, like lithium, they overbuilt the the, the 196 00:09:56,440 --> 00:10:00,120 downstream kind of capacity before there was either demand 197 00:10:00,440 --> 00:10:02,440 on or, or, or supply availability. 198 00:10:02,440 --> 00:10:06,880 They, they overbuild it and then kind of kind of even in some 199 00:10:06,880 --> 00:10:10,800 ways form a, a competitive advantage in that process, which 200 00:10:11,040 --> 00:10:14,640 creates a, a, a complete reliance on, on their expertise 201 00:10:14,640 --> 00:10:17,080 too. Yeah, it's a it's a very tricky 202 00:10:17,360 --> 00:10:19,080 issue. You know, looking at, you know, 203 00:10:19,080 --> 00:10:21,600 China overcapacity, there's been a lot set in the aluminium 204 00:10:21,600 --> 00:10:24,400 industry over the years about, you know, China deliberately 205 00:10:24,400 --> 00:10:28,320 building more capacity than they need to, you know, to export to 206 00:10:28,320 --> 00:10:30,320 the world. I think you've got to also look 207 00:10:30,320 --> 00:10:34,840 at it in the context of, of China's industrialisation and 208 00:10:34,840 --> 00:10:36,200 its urbanisation. We were talking about this 209 00:10:36,200 --> 00:10:39,880 earlier, you know, these two, these two phenomenon that 210 00:10:39,880 --> 00:10:43,760 happened together meant that demand for, you know, for iron 211 00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:46,600 ore and demand for aluminium and copper and so forth. 212 00:10:46,960 --> 00:10:49,360 I mean, it, it just, it was double digit growth for a 213 00:10:49,360 --> 00:10:52,560 decade. And so, you know, how do you 214 00:10:52,560 --> 00:10:56,320 kind of regulate how much capacity you build when you're 215 00:10:56,320 --> 00:10:58,320 at double digit growth for that long? 216 00:10:59,160 --> 00:11:02,680 And so, you know, in in some ways I kind of see it as them 217 00:11:02,680 --> 00:11:07,160 just keeping ahead of the curve, you know, maybe a bit, maybe a 218 00:11:07,160 --> 00:11:10,360 bit too far ahead of the curve at times, but maybe not as well 219 00:11:10,360 --> 00:11:13,040 just wanting to keep up with their own, you know, their own 220 00:11:13,560 --> 00:11:15,800 domestic consumption. There's a sort of analogy to 221 00:11:15,880 --> 00:11:19,240 lithium today and you, you fluctuate from surpluses to 222 00:11:19,680 --> 00:11:22,520 deficits kind of massively in a, in a growth market, right? 223 00:11:22,600 --> 00:11:23,280 Yeah. Well, it's true. 224 00:11:23,280 --> 00:11:25,640 Although I kind of look at the lithium market and think, you 225 00:11:25,640 --> 00:11:27,640 know, I get a bit hum about it 'cause we're talking about a 226 00:11:27,640 --> 00:11:29,040 market that's 10 million tonnes, right? 227 00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:30,560 Yeah. And on smaller scale and when 228 00:11:30,560 --> 00:11:34,000 you're talking about 400 million tonnes, yeah, or or, or it's, 229 00:11:34,160 --> 00:11:35,320 it's not a lot. Yeah. 230 00:11:35,520 --> 00:11:38,320 And we, we see the capacity, the, you know, the conversion 231 00:11:38,320 --> 00:11:40,640 capacity being built in China for lithium. 232 00:11:40,640 --> 00:11:43,440 I'm talking about yeah, it's a bit ahead of the curve, but it's 233 00:11:43,440 --> 00:11:46,000 low cost as well. You know, it's not the capital 234 00:11:46,000 --> 00:11:48,720 cost to build the conversion and the purification capacities. 235 00:11:49,120 --> 00:11:53,520 Not that, not that much of A of a constraint. 236 00:11:54,360 --> 00:11:59,280 And the the bulk site that China has used in the past 20 years, 237 00:11:59,920 --> 00:12:02,160 yeah, a lot of that has come from China, right? 238 00:12:02,160 --> 00:12:06,320 But that's sort of changing over time and could look a bit 239 00:12:06,320 --> 00:12:08,520 different, you know, looking forward over the next decade or 240 00:12:08,520 --> 00:12:09,960 two. Yeah, a lot different. 241 00:12:10,800 --> 00:12:13,960 Again, we've got to kind of wind the clock a bit back a bit here. 242 00:12:14,040 --> 00:12:17,160 And you know, kind of look at, you know, when this, you know, 243 00:12:17,160 --> 00:12:20,200 when this phenomenal growth period kind of started. 244 00:12:20,280 --> 00:12:22,320 I mean, China's got a lot of a lot of bulks on. 245 00:12:22,320 --> 00:12:26,400 It's diasporic bulks on right, which is monohydrate and it's 246 00:12:26,400 --> 00:12:29,040 like gravel. I mean, the first time I saw it 247 00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:31,840 when I went to, I mean, you know, here's me the box I'd 248 00:12:31,840 --> 00:12:34,720 export right turn up to China and there's a truck goes past 249 00:12:34,720 --> 00:12:36,720 before all this grey rocks on the back. 250 00:12:36,720 --> 00:12:41,440 I said, what's that? Actually, they kind of look at 251 00:12:41,440 --> 00:12:44,040 me. That's that's the local box on 252 00:12:44,040 --> 00:12:44,680 aluminium. Alum. 253 00:12:45,480 --> 00:12:46,600 Yeah, that's right. Well, I. 254 00:12:47,000 --> 00:12:50,640 Shot myself there. But I mean, it's very, very 255 00:12:50,640 --> 00:12:52,360 different, right? You to look at it's different 256 00:12:52,360 --> 00:12:54,680 that doesn't have the same iron content, but it's also up to 257 00:12:54,680 --> 00:12:59,600 like 60% alumina yeah so it's high high grade bauxite. 258 00:13:00,320 --> 00:13:02,880 Problem with it is though, that, you know, to dissolve it because 259 00:13:02,880 --> 00:13:05,760 one of the things, you know, the Bayer process requires that, you 260 00:13:05,760 --> 00:13:12,120 know, you crush it and dissolve it into caustic soda and to get 261 00:13:12,120 --> 00:13:15,280 it into solution when it for diasporic bauxite at the 262 00:13:15,280 --> 00:13:19,640 temperature's kind of 260 two 180°, Whereas if it's Ipside, 263 00:13:19,640 --> 00:13:23,320 it's, I'm 40 or something like that, somebody out there is 264 00:13:23,320 --> 00:13:25,320 going to say to me, actually, you've got those numbers wrong. 265 00:13:25,360 --> 00:13:27,440 You know what I mean? It's a lot higher, right? 266 00:13:27,520 --> 00:13:30,520 And, and if there's silica associated with it, when you're, 267 00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:33,880 you know, when you're dissolving at such a high temperature, the 268 00:13:33,880 --> 00:13:37,520 silica dissolves as well. And, and so the silica content 269 00:13:37,520 --> 00:13:40,200 of the bauxite is absolutely critical to understand because 270 00:13:40,200 --> 00:13:42,400 it can dissolve into the caustic. 271 00:13:42,840 --> 00:13:45,120 That just puts the cost up because when you strip it out, 272 00:13:45,120 --> 00:13:48,440 you strip the silica out, you strip alumina with it and you're 273 00:13:48,440 --> 00:13:50,920 losing caustic. So, you know, I come back to 274 00:13:51,040 --> 00:13:53,240 kind of Western Australia versus Queensland, right? 275 00:13:53,240 --> 00:13:55,640 When you think about the, the differences in the bulk sites, 276 00:13:56,240 --> 00:13:59,000 the, the, the, the really attractive feature about the WA 277 00:13:59,000 --> 00:14:02,440 bulk site is there's virtually no reacting silica in it. 278 00:14:02,840 --> 00:14:06,680 Like maybe one 1%, there's quarts in it, but it's gypsydic. 279 00:14:06,680 --> 00:14:09,280 So you know, you're dissolving it at a low temperature, which 280 00:14:09,280 --> 00:14:11,840 means you don't get much silica, which means your caustic soda 281 00:14:11,840 --> 00:14:16,000 consumption is way, way lower than other refineries, which 282 00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:18,680 means it's a, they're low cost refineries. 283 00:14:19,120 --> 00:14:21,280 So you might have, you know, the, the, the, the alumina 284 00:14:21,280 --> 00:14:24,880 content might be, I don't know, 3233% something like that. 285 00:14:25,280 --> 00:14:29,840 But the silica is like 1. So that's why these refineries 286 00:14:29,840 --> 00:14:34,120 in WM and they're running well, they're Q1Q1 refineries. 287 00:14:34,600 --> 00:14:36,400 Queensland Bauxite is completely different. 288 00:14:36,400 --> 00:14:40,800 That stuff there is, it's got, it's got it's, that's what ends 289 00:14:40,800 --> 00:14:41,280 up. Yeah, yeah. 290 00:14:41,840 --> 00:14:45,680 Yeah, this turns into that. You know, the Queensland bauxite 291 00:14:45,680 --> 00:14:48,600 is, has got Bolmite in it and that dissolves at a higher 292 00:14:48,600 --> 00:14:50,720 temperature. So you've got to dissolve it's, 293 00:14:50,800 --> 00:14:52,360 it's Gibbsite and Bolmite together, right? 294 00:14:52,360 --> 00:14:55,280 Mostly Gibbsite, but if you want to get all of the alumina then 295 00:14:55,280 --> 00:14:59,440 you've got to dissolve it at a high temperature and then the 296 00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:01,640 silica comes with it because there's much more silica in the 297 00:15:01,720 --> 00:15:03,280 Queensland bauxite. So it's, you know, it's a 298 00:15:03,280 --> 00:15:05,960 different, that's why I say, you know, diesel versus petrol, 299 00:15:05,960 --> 00:15:09,080 very, very different. Before, before China had this 300 00:15:09,080 --> 00:15:14,680 intentional strategy of of, you know, building out their, their 301 00:15:14,680 --> 00:15:18,120 in country kind of, you know, capability both on the mining 302 00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:20,160 and the refining. Like what did that landscape 303 00:15:20,400 --> 00:15:22,960 look like over the the preceding decades? 304 00:15:25,560 --> 00:15:30,000 If you go back to the, the, the in the early 2000s, I remember, 305 00:15:30,320 --> 00:15:33,560 you know, we, we started, you know, I started our office 306 00:15:33,680 --> 00:15:36,280 originally in China just at the end of the 90s, right? 307 00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:39,880 So we were there kind of watching this unfold. 308 00:15:41,240 --> 00:15:44,360 And you know, China's aluminium refineries to start with were, 309 00:15:44,360 --> 00:15:46,360 were rudimentary because they only had some, you know, they 310 00:15:46,360 --> 00:15:50,160 had sort of basic knowledge of the, of the Bayer process and 311 00:15:50,160 --> 00:15:54,040 they had all diasporic books on. So they weren't importing any 312 00:15:54,200 --> 00:15:57,760 books on in the early days. And so all of these refineries 313 00:15:57,760 --> 00:15:59,760 were all high temperature refineries because it's 314 00:15:59,880 --> 00:16:02,880 diasporic bauxite. Right when you get to about 315 00:16:04,120 --> 00:16:08,640 2006, 7-8 was when this demand for alumina in China really 316 00:16:08,640 --> 00:16:13,000 started to take off. Then China went to the world to 317 00:16:13,000 --> 00:16:17,160 find alumina and they wasn't there, not in the not in the 318 00:16:17,160 --> 00:16:19,280 volumes they needed. So what did they do? 319 00:16:19,280 --> 00:16:22,320 They built a alumina refund that they knew and then they went out 320 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:24,880 to find the bauxite. The 1st place they landed on was 321 00:16:24,880 --> 00:16:27,000 Indonesia. Yeah, right. 322 00:16:27,000 --> 00:16:31,440 So the, the period between about 2008 and 2000 and I think the 323 00:16:31,480 --> 00:16:35,120 the first minerals export ban came into Indonesia maybe 324 00:16:35,360 --> 00:16:42,480 January 2014, right, the first ban and running up to that 325 00:16:42,480 --> 00:16:46,240 period, you know, China was importing books out up to about 326 00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:49,600 I think the last year 2013, they maybe took about 40 million 327 00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:53,840 tonnes out of out of Indonesia. So it had really started to, to, 328 00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:57,880 to, you know, gather some momentum and at the same time, 329 00:16:57,880 --> 00:17:02,800 their own diasporic bauxite was starting to deplete, right. 330 00:17:02,800 --> 00:17:04,920 And I mean, like I said before, there's plenty of bauxite in 331 00:17:04,920 --> 00:17:07,560 China, but it's, it's this AS ratio, it's the ratio between 332 00:17:07,560 --> 00:17:10,560 the alumina and the silica. But once that gets down to about 333 00:17:10,720 --> 00:17:14,359 3 or 3 1/2, I mean, you know, when you've got 15% silica in 334 00:17:14,359 --> 00:17:16,200 your bauxite, it's just not economic anymore. 335 00:17:16,480 --> 00:17:17,359 Is that? Is that a? 336 00:17:18,599 --> 00:17:20,319 Like I say that it's a function of depth. 337 00:17:20,319 --> 00:17:22,839 If you go as you go deeper or deplete the resource, it just 338 00:17:22,839 --> 00:17:23,880 gets. No. 339 00:17:23,880 --> 00:17:26,400 Or is it a function of just? These resources were. 340 00:17:26,400 --> 00:17:28,240 Well known where they are and they're just limited. 341 00:17:28,240 --> 00:17:31,160 Yeah, there's some of that for dice bike book sites, there's, 342 00:17:31,360 --> 00:17:35,000 there's some of that, but it's really just in the formation. 343 00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:38,360 So some of it's got more silica associated with it, and yeah, 344 00:17:38,760 --> 00:17:40,120 some of it doesn't. And it's not the sort of 345 00:17:40,120 --> 00:17:42,960 commodity where you're going to have exploration success because 346 00:17:42,960 --> 00:17:44,960 we're talking about bulk mining operations here. 347 00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:47,040 Like, that's right, Whatever's there is known. 348 00:17:47,040 --> 00:17:49,240 And and I would advise you against using the word 349 00:17:49,240 --> 00:17:50,440 commodity. OK. 350 00:17:50,800 --> 00:17:53,200 What should I use? I would just call it bulk side 351 00:17:53,200 --> 00:17:55,040 of diaspora for now. But I mean that's one of the 352 00:17:55,040 --> 00:17:56,680 things there people think about bulk. 353 00:17:56,680 --> 00:17:59,320 So you do think about it as a. Commodity in the sense of it not 354 00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:02,280 being completely fungible. Yeah, fungibility is an 355 00:18:02,280 --> 00:18:04,400 important part of it. It's it's like, you know, can I, 356 00:18:04,560 --> 00:18:08,400 if I buy a cargo of bauxite in Guinea, then well, can I replace 357 00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:10,720 it? Can I buy a, a cargo books 358 00:18:10,720 --> 00:18:12,920 already from Queensland in six months time? 359 00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:15,120 And it's yeah, OK, Absolutely no way. 360 00:18:15,200 --> 00:18:18,960 So to I'll do it to negate the the challenges when you don't 361 00:18:18,960 --> 00:18:22,000 have the direct mind to refinery sort of model. 362 00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:24,880 I assume you tie them up on long term contracts. 363 00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:27,800 So you know you're getting supply from that mine even 364 00:18:27,800 --> 00:18:30,200 though it's in Indonesia and you're in China for a long, long 365 00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:30,840 time. Yeah. 366 00:18:31,200 --> 00:18:33,040 Yeah, what? What you want coming through the 367 00:18:33,040 --> 00:18:37,320 gate of your refinery every single day is exactly the same 368 00:18:37,480 --> 00:18:38,640 Bauxite. Consistent. 369 00:18:38,680 --> 00:18:40,400 Right. Just every time. 370 00:18:40,600 --> 00:18:41,840 It's like steel mills. It's like. 371 00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:44,280 That's right. I think for, for, for 372 00:18:44,280 --> 00:18:48,560 refineries, it's, it's accentuated a lot more. 373 00:18:48,800 --> 00:18:51,200 I mean, because there's such a huge variation in bauxite, it's 374 00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:54,160 much more than there are, let's say on ores, for example. 375 00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:56,080 So you absolutely need the same thing. 376 00:18:56,600 --> 00:18:59,760 When when, by the way, when China went through that, that 377 00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:02,640 period of, you know, enormous growth, they were out scouring 378 00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:05,320 the world for bauxite everywhere. 379 00:19:05,320 --> 00:19:08,160 You know we trip over them in also to we wonderful parts of 380 00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:10,560 the world looking for bauxite. Where's an example? 381 00:19:11,360 --> 00:19:15,120 Oh, Jamaica, Yeah, we talked about earlier, yeah, there's 382 00:19:15,120 --> 00:19:17,120 books on Madagascar. Yeah. 383 00:19:17,120 --> 00:19:19,680 But now he's getting out. It's very, very difficult to get 384 00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:21,760 it out. Obviously here in Australia, 385 00:19:22,200 --> 00:19:25,160 Indonesia, Vietnam has got a lot of books on. 386 00:19:25,480 --> 00:19:28,800 Guinea. Well, we kind of gravitate back 387 00:19:28,800 --> 00:19:32,760 to Guinea because Guinea has got the biggest, you know, bauxite 388 00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:34,720 deposits in the world and they're, you know, reasonably 389 00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:38,680 high grade and there's enough there to keep every refinery on 390 00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:40,200 earth running for the next 100 years. 391 00:19:41,520 --> 00:19:44,360 There's a lot. What's the catch with Guinea? 392 00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:47,800 Well, it's Guinea. I mean for China, what's the 393 00:19:47,800 --> 00:19:49,640 catch with Guinea, it's the other side of the earth, right. 394 00:19:49,640 --> 00:19:52,080 So there's always going to be a huge freight component. 395 00:19:52,520 --> 00:19:55,640 So the books are priced today on our on our index is probably 396 00:19:55,640 --> 00:19:59,720 about 77 bucks for a, for a standard use that term 397 00:19:59,720 --> 00:20:02,680 advisedly. But for, for our reference rate 398 00:20:02,680 --> 00:20:07,040 of Guinea and books that's about 77 bucks and you know probably 399 00:20:07,040 --> 00:20:10,280 30 that's freight. So that's one of the drawbacks. 400 00:20:10,600 --> 00:20:12,440 But the other? Drawback, of course, is that you 401 00:20:12,440 --> 00:20:16,240 know, it's it's not an easy place to, you know, to operate. 402 00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:21,160 But the, the export profile, it's just been dramatic the last 403 00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:25,760 decade coming out, yeah. Well, again, I'll, I'll, I'll 404 00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:30,680 bring the clock back to say 2014, right, because you know, 405 00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:34,680 the, the Chinese model, right? So they shifted, they couldn't 406 00:20:34,680 --> 00:20:36,560 have the, the mind mouth refinery model. 407 00:20:36,560 --> 00:20:39,680 It didn't work because you couldn't get the mind mouth. 408 00:20:39,680 --> 00:20:42,160 You couldn't, you couldn't put your foot on enough bauxite to 409 00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:43,800 make a mind mouth refinery model work. 410 00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:48,120 So they went to Indonesia and the model then was Indonesian 411 00:20:48,120 --> 00:20:50,520 bauxite into refineries in China. 412 00:20:50,680 --> 00:20:53,720 And that's the way we'll we'll apply it for the next decade or 413 00:20:53,720 --> 00:20:56,320 so. But the Indonesians introduced 414 00:20:56,320 --> 00:21:00,360 the minerals export ban in 2014 and that was the end of that. 415 00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:02,440 So then they had to go looking, right. 416 00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:04,720 The next place they landed on was Malaysia. 417 00:21:05,800 --> 00:21:08,600 And Malaysia introduced not an export ban. 418 00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:12,400 They introduced a bulksite mining moratorium, which is 419 00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:13,960 like, you know, get your act together. 420 00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:17,000 If you're going to mine bulksite here, then you have to do it in 421 00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:20,120 a certain way. And so they banned bulksite 422 00:21:20,120 --> 00:21:23,560 mining temporarily. And then they just moved the ban 423 00:21:23,560 --> 00:21:28,280 about six or seven times, which became years, right? 424 00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:31,520 And so, you know, the, the, the, the Chinese then thought, well, 425 00:21:32,360 --> 00:21:35,040 we're next. This kind of plays back into 426 00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:39,040 Alcan, right, which I will come back to because Australia was an 427 00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:42,920 A choice back then, right? But where did they go? 428 00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:46,480 They went to Guinea because if it's high grade and it you know, 429 00:21:46,680 --> 00:21:50,880 it's and, and the volume. How village operate they built 430 00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:53,520 out rail in that time to. You know, they built one rail. 431 00:21:53,560 --> 00:21:55,960 Yeah, yeah, they that came online between 23. 432 00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:58,120 Yeah, yeah, yeah. There was already an existing 433 00:21:58,120 --> 00:22:00,720 railway there because, you know, one of the world's biggest 434 00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:04,440 bauxite mine, CBG, which is owned 49% of the Canadian 435 00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:09,080 government, a group called the Halco Partners, which is Rio 436 00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:11,960 Alcoa and Dadco. And so that's been there for a 437 00:22:11,960 --> 00:22:14,000 long, long time. And there's a railway there and 438 00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:15,800 some other companies use that railway as well. 439 00:22:16,360 --> 00:22:17,760 So that had been established, right? 440 00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:22,760 But it was 2015 when Chinese companies arrived and the 441 00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:27,080 exports, you know, from Guinea to China went from like 442 00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:31,320 1,000,000 tonnes per annum probably in 2014, 2015 to 100 443 00:22:31,320 --> 00:22:34,040 million tonnes, you know, in, in about 8 years. 444 00:22:34,160 --> 00:22:35,600 It's phenomenal. It was. 445 00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:37,960 That's mind boggling it. Wasn't so it wasn't a resource 446 00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:42,280 issue that that, that all, you know, eventuated in there in 447 00:22:42,360 --> 00:22:44,400 Malaysia and Indonesia, not quite any expectations. 448 00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:48,000 It was just political regimes. Well, yeah, it was there It was. 449 00:22:48,120 --> 00:22:51,760 I mean, you know, the Indonesian minerals export ban was bought 450 00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:58,400 in specifically to, you know, to, to have companies add value. 451 00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:00,760 Indonesia, I mean, we've seen what's happened with nickel, 452 00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:02,440 right? I mean, it's, it's gone crazy. 453 00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:04,800 It it worked, it worked. It worked with nickel. 454 00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:06,840 It didn't work. Well, it was. 455 00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:09,280 With, with, with. I wouldn't say it didn't work. 456 00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:11,760 I'd say it was less successful at the time. 457 00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:15,160 I mean, what the what the Indonesians did in 2017 was they 458 00:23:15,160 --> 00:23:18,000 introduced some amendments to the minerals export ban and the 459 00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:21,840 amendments, I'll paraphrase them, right, But basically what 460 00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:24,680 they said was right. We're going to give you a 5 year 461 00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:28,160 window to build Illumina refineries and during that that 462 00:23:28,160 --> 00:23:32,240 five year period you can export on a pro rata kind of quoted 463 00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:35,040 basis. So we're not, we're not going to 464 00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:38,200 remove the minerals export ban, but we're going to give you an 465 00:23:38,200 --> 00:23:41,880 opportunity for some cash flow so that you can build 466 00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:43,280 refineries. And then we're going to audit 467 00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:47,160 your your success, you know, for if we're building the 468 00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:50,200 refineries. And then in 2022, we're going to 469 00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:54,480 close the window again. And so, you know, books and 470 00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:57,360 exports started to flow out of Indonesia again. 471 00:23:57,400 --> 00:24:00,000 And some projects were genuine and some weren't. 472 00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:03,920 But the bauxite started to flow again into China. 473 00:24:04,360 --> 00:24:07,400 Then came then, you know, with COVID delayed it by a year. 474 00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:09,680 But in 2023 they said, right, that's it. 475 00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:12,920 We're closing the window again. And, and, and what we're seeing 476 00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:16,120 now is that there is a proliferation of Illumina 477 00:24:16,120 --> 00:24:18,160 refinery projects in Indonesia right now. 478 00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:21,040 Yeah. So you, you can't look and say 479 00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:24,840 what was the, you know, has it been effective or was it not as 480 00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:28,520 effective as it was for nickel? I mean they're different 481 00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:30,040 industries in that there. You know, you just look at the 482 00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:32,520 capital intensity for an aluminium refinery, you know, 483 00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:36,240 it's a one $1.5 billion to build a refinery. 484 00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:43,640 So it's not, it's not cheaper and, and so you have to, you 485 00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:49,080 have to want to commit to that. And I think, you know, over the, 486 00:24:49,120 --> 00:24:51,440 the last, I don't know, maybe 5 or 6 years ago that a lot of 487 00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:53,440 Chinese companies have been a little reluctant to do that. 488 00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:55,480 They were building, still building refineries in China. 489 00:24:55,480 --> 00:25:00,000 So it wasn't an easy decision to say we, we go to Indonesia. 490 00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:01,880 But now I think things are starting to change and we are 491 00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:04,640 seeing more, more interest. So you know, I'd argue that the 492 00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:06,760 minerals export bans actually been pretty successful for 493 00:25:06,760 --> 00:25:09,280 aluminium as well. Yeah, it's just taking longer. 494 00:25:09,280 --> 00:25:12,240 Just takes longer, yeah. Well, it doesn't take longer to 495 00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:14,360 get ground support if Sandvik and your ground support 496 00:25:14,360 --> 00:25:15,840 supplier. That's one thing that does not 497 00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:17,600 take longer. The quickest way to get ground 498 00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:21,960 support on site to keep your underground mine humming is 499 00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:23,800 having Sandvik is the vendor for it. 500 00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:26,360 That's bloody Jada. If you were an underground mine 501 00:25:26,360 --> 00:25:28,280 manager, who would you pick as your ground support? 502 00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:30,440 Support Sandvik, Mate Sandvik. Trav yourself. 503 00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:33,520 Sandvik JJ So do I need to ask who you would think if you were 504 00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:36,840 running an underground mine? Sandvik That is the consensus we 505 00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:38,720 want anyway. Let's get back to it. 506 00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:42,680 That's that's kind of yeah, fascinating. 507 00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:46,440 So that's, that's like the Chinese part of the market over 508 00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:49,680 time, which of course you can't have a commodity story without 509 00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:52,680 what China's been doing. But the but simultaneously, what 510 00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:54,520 have the Western companies been doing? 511 00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:56,400 What's the what have the Russians been doing? 512 00:25:56,400 --> 00:26:00,480 What's? Well, very little to nothing. 513 00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:04,560 I think the honest answer, when you look at how much capacity 514 00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:08,400 has been built in China, yeah, you know, I'm talking about 515 00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:10,440 aluminium refining capacity and smelter capacity. 516 00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:13,040 I mean, there's been some has been built over the period, but 517 00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:16,680 you know, China has just eclipsed a lot. 518 00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:22,440 There's been some, some, you know, a few refineries built, 519 00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:24,560 but there's been, I'd argue, I think there's actually been more 520 00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:25,920 Catalan than there has been built. 521 00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:29,000 So the refineries that are that are owned by like the South 80 522 00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:32,800 twos, the Alcoas of the world, the Rio Tintos of the world, 523 00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:36,440 they're basically all the same refineries that were around 30 524 00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:37,440 years ago. Correct. 525 00:26:38,120 --> 00:26:40,080 Yeah. You've seen not a lot of pro. 526 00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:42,200 There's been, there's been a few, there's been a few built in 527 00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:43,680 Vietnam, but they were built by the Chinese. 528 00:26:44,120 --> 00:26:48,680 You know, one of the biggest refineries in the US, Port 529 00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:51,680 Comfort, which was owned by Point Comfort, owned by alcohol, 530 00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:55,480 was shut down and the bauxite sent to China. 531 00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:58,080 Gove, if you remember, you probably don't remember, there 532 00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:01,160 used to be an Illumina refiner at Gove in NT. 533 00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:06,560 Yeah, shut that down. 2015, I think shut it down, sent the 534 00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:12,000 bauxite to China. So capacity has sort of come out 535 00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:13,880 more than it's been or it's been built. 536 00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:15,920 Aluminium refining. I'm talking not, not smelting. 537 00:27:16,120 --> 00:27:21,360 But the the what what that like, what is the story with Alcan 538 00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:22,920 right? Like, I mean, it's just like 539 00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:25,840 everyone knows. You can wait too long, no? 540 00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:31,920 But so if if like I don't know if like if if if if the story is 541 00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:33,560 that I have to. Change my beer to answer this 542 00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:36,280 question. So thanks for the Coopers by the 543 00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:37,520 way. That makes me feel like I'm at 544 00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:39,160 home. We've got to look after the SA. 545 00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:42,680 Thanks to whoever I can't remember who bought Coopers for 546 00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:43,640 us. But anyway, thank you for. 547 00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:49,800 That, yeah, the Alcan story, it's, it's, it's, it's 548 00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:53,160 intriguing, but it takes you back to, you know, the heady 549 00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:55,800 days of sort of 2000 and six, 2007, right? 550 00:27:56,040 --> 00:27:59,800 We were talking about this, you know, this this period in time 551 00:27:59,800 --> 00:28:03,200 where I think the rest of the world realised that what was 552 00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:07,280 happening in China was real. And that was, you know, reports 553 00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:11,480 coming out of China that iron ore was going from sort of 15 554 00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:16,680 bucks a tonne to 70, which, you know, that was that's a hell of 555 00:28:16,680 --> 00:28:19,560 a, an increase back then. And is it real? 556 00:28:19,560 --> 00:28:21,240 Is it not real? Is this whole idea of 557 00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:25,200 urbanisation real or not? But I think it was about that 558 00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:28,760 time that it was, you know, people could see that this was 559 00:28:28,760 --> 00:28:32,080 actually happening and demand was just, you know, it was, it 560 00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:33,840 had skyrocketed, particularly for iron ore. 561 00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:37,000 But now there was a, there was a, a thought that aluminium 562 00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:40,080 would go with it at A at a similar kind of pace. 563 00:28:40,440 --> 00:28:42,560 Where did that come from, that perception? 564 00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:47,000 I think the, the general idea of industrialization, I mean we 565 00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:49,600 were talking before about the different market sectors, right, 566 00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:52,080 for aluminium. So it's construction is a big 567 00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:55,680 one for aluminium as well. So you know, construction starts 568 00:28:55,680 --> 00:28:59,520 to pick up, then aluminium demand starts to pick up and you 569 00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:02,520 know, infrastructure and you know transport and so forth. 570 00:29:02,520 --> 00:29:05,600 So there was some, there were signs of demand, you know, 571 00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:08,320 increasing quite significantly in China at the same time the 572 00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:09,640 Chinese were out looking for alumina. 573 00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:14,360 So these kind of things were all coming together at a time when, 574 00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:20,600 you know, markets became very frothy and bubbly and, you know, 575 00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:22,960 people got a bit sort of over rejuberant. 576 00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:26,240 Yeah, just to some degree. And, and, and when you think 577 00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:28,320 about Alcan, come back to Alcan, right? 578 00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:33,160 So at the time, so in 2007, there were a number of companies 579 00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:35,520 that were running the ruler over Alcan. 580 00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:39,360 It wasn't just real. Yeah, yeah, BHP was too, right? 581 00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:41,840 Well, BHP had a look, but they'd never come out and said 582 00:29:41,840 --> 00:29:43,840 anything. They hadn't come out and made a 583 00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:45,320 bid. And Alcoa bid. 584 00:29:45,360 --> 00:29:48,160 Alcoa did first, yeah. And that and that turned 585 00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:49,280 hostile, right? Yeah. 586 00:29:49,400 --> 00:29:53,240 And that was that was rejected. And Rio came way over the town 587 00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:54,520 well. No, there was one in between 588 00:29:54,560 --> 00:29:56,720 which was valet. Valet as well. 589 00:29:56,920 --> 00:30:02,600 Formerly known CBRD, Yeah, yeah. So CBRD made a bid, right? 590 00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:05,760 And and so the, and so Rio trumped it. 591 00:30:05,760 --> 00:30:07,800 But, you know, I remember the time because we were doing some 592 00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:10,000 work for VHP and some other companies. 593 00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:12,720 We were kind of looking at the, the valuations that would go 594 00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:17,480 with these, these crazy prices that were being offered. 595 00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:19,640 And you kind of think, you know, you look at, you think, how the 596 00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:21,360 hell did they get to that valuation? 597 00:30:21,360 --> 00:30:22,680 What are they assuming? Yeah, yeah. 598 00:30:22,680 --> 00:30:25,120 I mean, there's only so many numbers you can change in a 599 00:30:25,120 --> 00:30:27,200 financial model to get it moving up. 600 00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:28,760 It's got to be aluminium price, right? 601 00:30:28,760 --> 00:30:30,840 Or it's got volumes or you know, whatever it is, so. 602 00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:32,920 Many parallels to lithium. Yeah. 603 00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:35,680 I mean, but the prices were, I mean they in the end they paid 604 00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:38,760 36 billion for it, right US, which in today's money is 605 00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:43,720 probably about, I don't know, 55 to 60 billion, but it's a lot of 606 00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:45,720 money. And it was higher than 607 00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:50,520 significantly higher than Varlow, which was significantly 608 00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:53,160 higher than any of the other valuations that we kind of saw 609 00:30:53,160 --> 00:30:56,240 at the time that, you know, people look and go how did they 610 00:30:56,240 --> 00:30:58,680 get to that number. They debt funded it and like. 611 00:30:58,680 --> 00:31:01,000 Well, they debt funded it and remember though that it was also 612 00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:04,080 the time at which BHP had made a bid for Rio. 613 00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:06,640 Yeah, yeah. So there's a lot happening, and 614 00:31:06,640 --> 00:31:08,360 this is all coming. You know, you come back to, 615 00:31:08,360 --> 00:31:12,680 well, this is China, this is this incredible growth rates, 616 00:31:12,840 --> 00:31:14,960 these companies trying to position themselves to take 617 00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:17,600 advantage best they could. And so Alcan was kind of the 618 00:31:17,600 --> 00:31:19,280 obvious target. What's the ultimate? 619 00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:22,520 Was it a bit of a poison pill for Rio to to, you know, pay too 620 00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:25,640 much for Alcan so that they had defensibility from actually 621 00:31:25,640 --> 00:31:28,000 being acquired by BHP? Yeah, well, like, you know, 622 00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:31,360 plenty of sorry, there's plenty of speculation, right? 623 00:31:31,360 --> 00:31:32,240 Oh, now I got my own view. Do. 624 00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:35,440 You reckon the the government would ever have let that happen? 625 00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:37,920 What? They asked me to take Rio. 626 00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:40,640 No, it's not just the government here. 627 00:31:40,640 --> 00:31:43,160 I think there would have been foreign investment review boards 628 00:31:43,160 --> 00:31:44,920 all over the world who would have looked at and said we're 629 00:31:44,920 --> 00:31:49,320 not going to. I think it was always, yeah, it 630 00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:52,920 was always kind of kind of struggle just on that alone. 631 00:31:53,080 --> 00:31:55,200 Yeah. Yeah. 632 00:31:55,200 --> 00:31:56,880 But I mean, you come back to the poison pill. 633 00:31:57,760 --> 00:31:59,800 The idea of the poison pill, right, is that, you know, you, 634 00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:03,800 you swallow it for a large sum of money and, and therefore 635 00:32:03,800 --> 00:32:06,520 you're less attractive, you know, as a, as a takeover 636 00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:08,800 target. And, you know, my view at the 637 00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:11,120 time was that there was, there was plenty of that in it. 638 00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:12,480 My personal view, there's plenty of that. 639 00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:17,160 It wasn't just, yeah, it was, it was a factor for sure. 640 00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:19,680 There was, like I said, there's all this froth and bubble about 641 00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:23,280 the aluminium industry and, and aluminium demand growth sort of 642 00:32:23,280 --> 00:32:26,960 going crazy. But by the way, we're, you know, 643 00:32:27,320 --> 00:32:32,560 we've got, we've got a suit all. And this is a, dare I say, a 644 00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:34,360 convenient way of making it more difficult. 645 00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:39,280 It's kind of amazing. They're like the, the, the, the, 646 00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:43,480 the wonderful cash printed that is sort of Pilgrim iron ore can 647 00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:47,200 kind of, you know, paint over those pretty horrendous 648 00:32:47,200 --> 00:32:50,160 blemishes in, in kind of, you know, corporate history. 649 00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:53,960 Like a well, like a 35. Today's all is $50 billion plus 650 00:32:54,760 --> 00:32:56,760 acquisition. Well, I come back to the, you 651 00:32:56,760 --> 00:33:00,160 know, the, the, the, the comment that I made about, about Guinea 652 00:33:00,240 --> 00:33:03,640 and about bulk sign, right? Because when, you know, after 653 00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:06,760 that acquisition, you know, taking place, then you wind the 654 00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:08,680 clock forward by maybe four or five years. 655 00:33:08,680 --> 00:33:11,920 And Rio had written off most of it, right? 656 00:33:11,920 --> 00:33:13,800 So I think everybody looked and said it was a bad deal. 657 00:33:13,800 --> 00:33:16,080 It was, it was a bad deal. It was about 5. 658 00:33:16,080 --> 00:33:18,080 They wrote off most of it. Yeah. 659 00:33:18,120 --> 00:33:19,600 But I think they did another they wrote off. 660 00:33:19,640 --> 00:33:21,160 I think they wrote it all off. Did they? 661 00:33:21,640 --> 00:33:23,640 Yeah, I I made the impression it was actually. 662 00:33:23,640 --> 00:33:27,080 At least, yeah, at least 2/3. Yeah, yeah, it was a big, it was 663 00:33:27,080 --> 00:33:30,080 a big write off, right. But you can imagine what that 664 00:33:30,080 --> 00:33:33,520 did inside Rio. I mean, you've got iron ore 665 00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:36,440 prices going crazy. You've got a company that just, 666 00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:40,520 you know, one of the better term wasted a lot of money, you know, 667 00:33:40,560 --> 00:33:43,400 share a lot of money on, on this, this acquisition that had 668 00:33:43,400 --> 00:33:47,880 gone terribly. And so, and then I remember at 669 00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:50,160 the time because I was, you know, I was advising them that, 670 00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:55,120 you know, we would put forward a forecast for bauxite imports 671 00:33:55,120 --> 00:33:57,840 into China, which was double digit growth. 672 00:33:59,280 --> 00:34:02,200 And they'd kind of look at it and say, yeah, that's really 673 00:34:02,200 --> 00:34:05,320 interesting. Thanks very much. 674 00:34:05,520 --> 00:34:07,960 And that's what you'd and they'd kind of leave it at that because 675 00:34:07,960 --> 00:34:11,639 it was very, very difficult for the aluminium, you know, 676 00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:17,320 business unit to to attract the attract funds away from iron ore 677 00:34:17,320 --> 00:34:20,360 from anything else, especially after the disaster that was 678 00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:25,199 alcant. My, my view is that had that not 679 00:34:25,199 --> 00:34:29,120 happened that, you know, Rio is incredibly well positioned to, 680 00:34:29,120 --> 00:34:34,239 to, to build out WEIPA so that a lot more bauxite from Australia 681 00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:37,719 right now would be going into China than that's coming from 682 00:34:37,719 --> 00:34:40,199 Guinea, right? That made it more difficult. 683 00:34:40,199 --> 00:34:42,120 Plus the, all of the difficulties that go with just 684 00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:46,360 approvals processes in Australia make it incredibly difficult as 685 00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:47,880 well. But it could have just, you 686 00:34:47,880 --> 00:34:50,400 know, the industry could have just turned left instead of 687 00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:52,320 right then. So as a result, the Western 688 00:34:52,320 --> 00:34:57,720 producers stand still, China brings on its own internal 689 00:34:57,720 --> 00:35:02,840 capacity that depletes like like, you know, Malaysia, 690 00:35:02,840 --> 00:35:05,160 Indonesia fizzle. Guinea is the new source. 691 00:35:05,720 --> 00:35:10,720 What's the status of of Guinea supply into China today? 692 00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:16,000 Between Guinea this year will do about 100 million tonnes. 693 00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:20,920 I'll do, I think it might do 115,000,000 tonnes of bauxite 694 00:35:20,920 --> 00:35:23,200 into China this year. Total imports this year will be 695 00:35:23,200 --> 00:35:26,320 about 150 and between Guinea and Australia you're probably about 696 00:35:26,320 --> 00:35:29,160 95% of the total. So all the rest of the kind of 697 00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:31,360 rats and mice? Where Where does the bauxite 698 00:35:31,520 --> 00:35:34,440 come from in Australia? That oh from wiper, from from 699 00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:36,360 Rio and from Metro Metro. Yeah. 700 00:35:37,120 --> 00:35:39,760 WA here. Alcoa did explore a little bit 701 00:35:39,760 --> 00:35:42,760 here a few years back, but it's hard, right? 702 00:35:42,760 --> 00:35:46,400 Because it's, I mean, it's 30 three, 3233% alumina. 703 00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:49,360 So there's a lot of stuff in there that's not alumina that 704 00:35:49,360 --> 00:35:50,680 you know, you're importing choice. 705 00:35:50,680 --> 00:35:52,120 It's good. It's a blending kind of books 706 00:35:52,120 --> 00:35:53,680 because it's got very low silica. 707 00:35:54,480 --> 00:35:57,840 But you really need to have, you know, a refinery like Worsley or 708 00:35:57,840 --> 00:36:02,200 wager up built in China to, you know, to to to make the most of 709 00:36:02,200 --> 00:36:03,480 it. And that's not going to happen. 710 00:36:04,360 --> 00:36:08,320 Are there any constraints on the supply out of out of Guinea for 711 00:36:08,320 --> 00:36:11,360 any, any reason or like you said, there's there's hundreds 712 00:36:11,720 --> 00:36:14,960 of years, but are there like are there reasons to be trepidatious 713 00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:18,120 about what can actually come out of Guinea? 714 00:36:18,800 --> 00:36:21,680 Yeah, I think they're starting to emerge now. 715 00:36:21,680 --> 00:36:24,600 I mean, now that we're up at sort of 100 million tonnes plus, 716 00:36:26,400 --> 00:36:31,560 written into most of the concessions for bauxite 717 00:36:31,560 --> 00:36:34,360 exporters from Guinea is the requirement to build an 718 00:36:34,360 --> 00:36:36,480 aluminium refinery. Gotcha. 719 00:36:37,160 --> 00:36:39,240 So the Ghanaian government, right, it's a military 720 00:36:39,240 --> 00:36:43,320 government at the moment, right? But they're very, they're 721 00:36:43,320 --> 00:36:48,400 becoming more and more, I guess I want to say aggressive, but 722 00:36:48,680 --> 00:36:52,720 you know, they're the pressure is is mounting on bauxite 723 00:36:52,720 --> 00:36:54,960 exporters in Guinea to build aluminium refineries. 724 00:36:55,040 --> 00:36:56,600 They want to do the Indo playbook. 725 00:36:57,960 --> 00:37:01,120 Well, you kind of you kind of both is my view. 726 00:37:01,680 --> 00:37:03,240 Why is that? I mean, well, because then 727 00:37:03,240 --> 00:37:04,720 you've got too much aluminium refining capacity. 728 00:37:04,720 --> 00:37:08,160 See what's happening in India in in Indonesia right now is my 729 00:37:08,160 --> 00:37:10,280 view. We're going to see another 3 or 730 00:37:10,280 --> 00:37:13,400 4 refineries built in Indonesia between now and the in the end 731 00:37:13,400 --> 00:37:19,400 of 2030. So, you know, although it kind 732 00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:22,200 of makes sense to build a, a refinery close to the bulk site. 733 00:37:22,200 --> 00:37:23,960 So it kind of makes sense in Guinea, although they've got a, 734 00:37:24,080 --> 00:37:25,760 they've got an energy problem to solve. 735 00:37:27,120 --> 00:37:28,720 You've got to do it when the time's right. 736 00:37:29,880 --> 00:37:33,320 And it seems to me now that the time is right in Indonesia and 737 00:37:33,320 --> 00:37:36,120 then at some point after that because there's only so many 738 00:37:36,120 --> 00:37:39,440 alumina refineries that Indonesian bauxite will support 739 00:37:39,760 --> 00:37:43,400 and then I think it's kind of Guineas turn after that. 740 00:37:44,120 --> 00:37:45,240 Yeah. So that's a constraint you. 741 00:37:45,280 --> 00:37:48,160 Don't want too much, too much refining capacity at the same 742 00:37:48,160 --> 00:37:50,000 time because. Well, it'll just kill the price. 743 00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:52,840 Yeah, refining margins. And it's got to be in the right 744 00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:54,960 part of the world, right? There's kind of two mark the 745 00:37:54,960 --> 00:37:57,560 Pacific and the Atlantic market. So, you know, you build your 746 00:37:57,560 --> 00:38:01,120 aluminium refineries in Guinea, you're kind of feeding into the 747 00:38:01,120 --> 00:38:04,040 Atlantic market that doesn't might need them in the future, 748 00:38:04,040 --> 00:38:05,360 not necessarily now. What? 749 00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:07,840 What's the state of the Russians then, Russell? 750 00:38:07,880 --> 00:38:09,960 What sort of scale do they operate at? 751 00:38:10,320 --> 00:38:13,400 In Guinea or in, well, I mean, they're quite the biggest 752 00:38:13,640 --> 00:38:17,640 producers of primary aluminium, the biggest primary alum 753 00:38:17,640 --> 00:38:20,480 producers. And there was recently the ban, 754 00:38:20,480 --> 00:38:21,800 I'm not sure how effective it is. 755 00:38:21,800 --> 00:38:25,720 Maybe you can expand on it was an LMA ban that they couldn't 756 00:38:26,320 --> 00:38:29,000 trade in in Russian. Yeah. 757 00:38:29,640 --> 00:38:33,480 Effective at all? It's not, well, no, I think 758 00:38:35,680 --> 00:38:38,120 there's there's there's some sanctions, but there's also a 759 00:38:38,120 --> 00:38:41,440 lot of a lot of companies are self sanctioned when it comes to 760 00:38:41,440 --> 00:38:44,400 dealing with the result. So a lot of companies said, 761 00:38:44,400 --> 00:38:46,080 well, we just won't take their medal. 762 00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:50,240 It's not illegal, but we just, we just won't do it. 763 00:38:50,760 --> 00:38:52,960 So. Just go fire middle men then 764 00:38:53,040 --> 00:38:55,000 like. Well, it can, it can, it can it 765 00:38:55,000 --> 00:38:56,640 can go fire middle men. The thing about? 766 00:38:56,640 --> 00:38:58,600 It's fungible. Yeah, that's right. 767 00:38:59,040 --> 00:39:01,720 It's difficult to, you know, to, to, to keep it out. 768 00:39:01,720 --> 00:39:04,320 If you, if you, if you want it, you can, you'll get it right. 769 00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:08,080 But the thing about Russian aluminium is that it's, you 770 00:39:08,080 --> 00:39:11,240 know, it's green credentials very, very good because it's all 771 00:39:11,240 --> 00:39:14,280 hydropower. So you've got this conundrum, 772 00:39:14,400 --> 00:39:15,720 right. You've got, you know, people 773 00:39:15,720 --> 00:39:18,880 want, well, I want green metal. Well, there's plenty of it for 774 00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:21,000 Russell, but well, can you, can you take it? 775 00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:23,440 Can you not take it? It's almost down to like a 776 00:39:23,440 --> 00:39:27,520 company by or or consumer by consumer decision of whether you 777 00:39:27,520 --> 00:39:30,000 want to use that that meddler or it's not. 778 00:39:30,040 --> 00:39:34,040 The E but not the not the S. That's right, That's right. 779 00:39:34,040 --> 00:39:37,000 So, you know, it's yeah, they're in a, they're in a tricky spot. 780 00:39:37,000 --> 00:39:40,240 And of course, they lost the, the, the big refinery in Ukraine 781 00:39:41,320 --> 00:39:46,080 and they, and they lost, you know, 700,000 odd tonnes of QIL 782 00:39:47,080 --> 00:39:49,760 alumina. So they've been out in the world 783 00:39:49,760 --> 00:39:53,720 trying to source, you know, 3,000,000 tonnes of alumina to 784 00:39:53,720 --> 00:39:56,960 make up for what they've lost, you know, since the, since the 785 00:39:57,000 --> 00:39:59,720 Ukraine conflict. And most of that's come from 786 00:39:59,720 --> 00:40:02,480 China. So to round out on sort of 787 00:40:02,480 --> 00:40:07,240 supply and demand, recycling is a pretty real thing. 788 00:40:07,640 --> 00:40:10,880 You know, it goes well beyond a lot of the other metals that we 789 00:40:10,920 --> 00:40:13,920 that we talk about. Can you sort of expand upon kind 790 00:40:13,920 --> 00:40:17,520 of percentage and size that recycling plays in the aluminium 791 00:40:17,520 --> 00:40:19,040 market? I'll do my best. 792 00:40:19,560 --> 00:40:25,080 I'm not a huge recycling expert, but what I can tell you is that, 793 00:40:25,600 --> 00:40:29,040 you know, post consumer scrap. So I mean, most of the aluminium 794 00:40:29,040 --> 00:40:31,080 that's been produced in the world is still used in its first 795 00:40:31,480 --> 00:40:36,160 application, right? So, you know, scrap the 796 00:40:36,160 --> 00:40:39,120 attractiveness of scrap now, of course, because it's carbon 797 00:40:39,120 --> 00:40:42,520 footprint is so small, like the number is, you know that you'll 798 00:40:42,520 --> 00:40:45,840 hear from most people is 5% takes 5% of the energy to 799 00:40:45,840 --> 00:40:50,440 recycle aluminium relative to to primary production, right. 800 00:40:50,440 --> 00:40:54,040 I don't quite buy that, but it's not a bad, you know, it's close 801 00:40:54,040 --> 00:40:56,000 enough because the problem with recycling, I mean, you take 802 00:40:56,000 --> 00:40:58,440 these cans, right, you recycle them with a whole bunch of other 803 00:40:58,440 --> 00:41:02,640 aluminium, all sorts of stuff gets in there as well, usually 804 00:41:02,640 --> 00:41:04,640 iron, which means you've got to break it back with you've got to 805 00:41:04,640 --> 00:41:06,800 alloy it with some pure metal as well. 806 00:41:06,800 --> 00:41:09,680 So it's not quite 5%, but it's it's not a bad, it's not a bad 807 00:41:09,680 --> 00:41:12,480 number. So it's very attractive from 808 00:41:12,480 --> 00:41:15,200 that perspective, given its carbon footprint. 809 00:41:15,200 --> 00:41:19,240 So you see a lot of companies that are, you know, who are 810 00:41:19,240 --> 00:41:23,320 prepared to pay more for scrap because it can get down, get 811 00:41:23,320 --> 00:41:26,200 their carbon footprint down. If you look at scrap rates, 812 00:41:26,520 --> 00:41:28,720 recycle rates around the world, they're all, you know, they're 813 00:41:28,720 --> 00:41:32,480 all fairly high. Well, I mean, it varies country 814 00:41:32,480 --> 00:41:35,000 to country, obviously, but the one that's the laggard is China. 815 00:41:36,600 --> 00:41:40,120 China's recycling rates for aluminium significantly lower 816 00:41:40,120 --> 00:41:42,840 than the rest of the world for what they consume, and they're 817 00:41:42,840 --> 00:41:45,960 trying to change that. Now you might have heard that 818 00:41:46,720 --> 00:41:50,480 you know China's got a a cap on its primary aluminium smelting 819 00:41:50,480 --> 00:41:52,240 capacity, 45,000,000 tonnes, right? 820 00:41:52,400 --> 00:41:54,040 Yeah, I'm keen to go deeper on that as well. 821 00:41:54,040 --> 00:41:56,280 Yeah, well, it's really interesting because, you know, 822 00:41:57,840 --> 00:42:01,680 in our view, you know, aluminium demand just continues to, you 823 00:42:01,680 --> 00:42:04,520 know, on its slow burn. So where does the aluminium come 824 00:42:04,520 --> 00:42:07,440 from? It comes from recycle. 825 00:42:07,560 --> 00:42:10,000 I mean, that's the China plan, right, Is they actually increase 826 00:42:10,000 --> 00:42:14,800 their their recycle rights so they can feed into the into the 827 00:42:14,800 --> 00:42:17,320 increasing demand rather than building more smelters. 828 00:42:18,120 --> 00:42:22,000 So yeah, recycle is the future for aluminium for sure, 829 00:42:22,600 --> 00:42:25,480 especially given the, you know, the, the, the carbon footprint. 830 00:42:25,800 --> 00:42:29,280 Well, if recycling's the future for aluminium boys, I'd say this 831 00:42:29,280 --> 00:42:34,400 fella here, Reece Patoni, He is the future for earthworks and 832 00:42:34,400 --> 00:42:35,440 knowledge. Just look at him. 833 00:42:35,440 --> 00:42:37,440 Across Australia. Look at his face. 834 00:42:37,440 --> 00:42:39,440 Does he look like he wants to move dirt? 835 00:42:39,520 --> 00:42:43,920 Dashing. Oh Jesus Christ mate, I've got 836 00:42:43,920 --> 00:42:50,400 something for you with races an AEH as partnership with the 837 00:42:50,400 --> 00:42:53,240 great Seamus Murphy for many time exploration. 838 00:42:53,240 --> 00:42:58,160 Like it's not just clearing and for bloody mining exploration, 839 00:42:58,160 --> 00:43:01,400 dams or anything mate they could get Seamus could get the 840 00:43:01,400 --> 00:43:05,320 fieldies and the geos out there to supervise the whole project 841 00:43:05,760 --> 00:43:09,800 as a turn key earthworks and haulage solution. 842 00:43:09,800 --> 00:43:11,520 Is that? Have you ever heard of that 843 00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:12,760 before? Never. 844 00:43:12,760 --> 00:43:15,760 Normally you pitch ludicrous propositions as 10K, but this is 845 00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:18,200 a, This is actual. And this is a true one. 846 00:43:18,200 --> 00:43:20,960 I cannot believe it mate. As I said site clear and dam 847 00:43:20,960 --> 00:43:25,000 building post mining rehab, rain, hail or cyclone. 848 00:43:26,040 --> 00:43:27,640 He works through the whole thing mate. 849 00:43:27,640 --> 00:43:31,520 He even uses the cyclone's energy to move to the freaking 850 00:43:31,520 --> 00:43:33,800 dirt quicker. But that is how good this guy 851 00:43:33,800 --> 00:43:35,280 is. Everyone else would be parked up 852 00:43:35,280 --> 00:43:36,840 on the piss at the pub. Not race. 853 00:43:37,160 --> 00:43:39,240 Not Australian earthworks and haulage. 854 00:43:39,240 --> 00:43:42,960 Maddie, you had me at 10 K Oh. Jesus Christ, give him a bloody 855 00:43:42,960 --> 00:43:47,480 bell for Christ's sake. So why did China self impose 856 00:43:47,480 --> 00:43:50,800 these alumina and aluminium restrictions? 857 00:43:50,800 --> 00:43:52,680 Yeah, that's a, that's a very good question. 858 00:43:52,720 --> 00:43:57,440 There isn't why in there actually isn't a cap on 859 00:43:57,440 --> 00:43:59,480 refining. It's kind of like a proxy cap. 860 00:43:59,480 --> 00:44:02,360 If there's a, if there's a cap on primary aluminium, there's 861 00:44:02,360 --> 00:44:04,440 kind of a cap on alum because there's nothing else you can do 862 00:44:04,440 --> 00:44:08,480 with it, right. So the 45,000,000 tonne cap was 863 00:44:08,480 --> 00:44:13,400 bought in to stop alumina, to stop primary aluminium smelters 864 00:44:13,400 --> 00:44:16,920 being built because you know, there was if you know that 865 00:44:16,920 --> 00:44:21,240 period that that huge growth period that I spoke about before 866 00:44:22,560 --> 00:44:26,840 and the overcapacity that came with it was becoming a problem. 867 00:44:28,560 --> 00:44:32,960 And so the 45,000,000 tonne cap was introduced to stop 868 00:44:33,120 --> 00:44:38,480 refineries from being built to, you know, to increase net 869 00:44:38,480 --> 00:44:41,880 capacity. What I mean by that is that if a 870 00:44:41,880 --> 00:44:45,080 smelter closed somewhere, let's say a smelter 200,000 tonnes 871 00:44:45,080 --> 00:44:49,280 shut down, then that 200,000 tonnes of smelter capacity could 872 00:44:49,280 --> 00:44:53,920 be like horse traded to another, another province somewhere, 873 00:44:53,920 --> 00:44:56,040 right? So you could still build new 874 00:44:56,680 --> 00:44:59,640 smelters, but you couldn't there couldn't be a net increase. 875 00:45:00,400 --> 00:45:04,160 And so you know the, the, the purpose of that of the the cap 876 00:45:04,160 --> 00:45:07,520 was to stop new smelting capacity which. 877 00:45:07,880 --> 00:45:11,120 You dampen the profitability of of existing. 878 00:45:11,160 --> 00:45:12,720 Yeah. And I, I was getting out of 879 00:45:12,720 --> 00:45:15,240 hand, right. Smelting capacity was growing 880 00:45:15,240 --> 00:45:19,760 faster than than demand. So that that cap of 45,000,000 881 00:45:19,760 --> 00:45:22,800 tonnes by the way, is going to be hit any day. 882 00:45:23,520 --> 00:45:26,600 I think we're, I think it's about like 122,000 tonnes a day 883 00:45:26,600 --> 00:45:29,120 and I think we're in like 120 or something like that. 884 00:45:29,120 --> 00:45:30,720 So we're not far away from it, yeah. 885 00:45:31,560 --> 00:45:34,840 We're at, because my understanding is, you know, 886 00:45:35,080 --> 00:45:37,840 Australia, for example, we mined the bauxite and we have 887 00:45:37,840 --> 00:45:40,560 refineries that turn that bauxite into alumina, but we 888 00:45:40,560 --> 00:45:42,320 don't do any smelting. We do. 889 00:45:42,320 --> 00:45:43,240 Yeah, we do. Yeah. 890 00:45:43,240 --> 00:45:44,800 Yeah, we've got some. Where's the smelter? 891 00:45:44,800 --> 00:45:46,960 Well, it's Born Island Smelter and time ago. 892 00:45:47,200 --> 00:45:50,160 OK. And Portland in in Vic. 893 00:45:50,160 --> 00:45:54,680 Become a dickhead. And, and also but, but place to 894 00:45:54,680 --> 00:45:55,880 your first point though, right? Yeah. 895 00:45:55,880 --> 00:45:58,720 We just don't know much about the industry. 896 00:45:58,720 --> 00:46:01,040 You it's hard to get, you know, to how do you invent? 897 00:46:01,040 --> 00:46:02,960 How do you play it? Yeah, all those things you we've 898 00:46:02,960 --> 00:46:06,040 had, you know, we've had we, we closed the smelter in in 899 00:46:06,080 --> 00:46:08,680 Victoria many, many years ago. Point Henry in Geelong, yeah. 900 00:46:09,480 --> 00:46:12,680 It's also a big smelter in New Zealand, that's how many smelter 901 00:46:12,680 --> 00:46:14,640 so. But you dominate the smelting. 902 00:46:14,640 --> 00:46:15,240 Oh, for sure. Yeah. 903 00:46:15,240 --> 00:46:15,560 Yeah. What? 904 00:46:15,560 --> 00:46:19,520 What percentage are they? They're about 6060% of the 905 00:46:19,520 --> 00:46:22,840 world, roughly OK and Illuminas not far behind. 906 00:46:23,160 --> 00:46:26,280 The one in Rio made headlines earlier this year, just signing 907 00:46:26,280 --> 00:46:29,480 a new power deal, is that right? So they could. 908 00:46:30,400 --> 00:46:31,040 Get that? I think. 909 00:46:31,040 --> 00:46:32,040 Get that? Locked in and then they could 910 00:46:32,040 --> 00:46:33,600 stay open get. Security, yeah. 911 00:46:33,640 --> 00:46:36,120 Well, I mean, more recently, Portland just did the same 912 00:46:36,120 --> 00:46:37,480 thing. Yeah, another, I think it was 913 00:46:37,480 --> 00:46:42,360 450 megawatts or so, I think to 2034, something like that. 914 00:46:42,360 --> 00:46:45,280 So I mean, smelting is about electricity, right? 915 00:46:45,480 --> 00:46:47,840 Yeah, one of the ways somebody said to me very early in my 916 00:46:47,840 --> 00:46:50,440 career, when you look at aluminium, you look at an ingot 917 00:46:50,440 --> 00:46:53,120 of aluminium, think of it as coagulated electricity. 918 00:46:54,840 --> 00:46:56,720 Explain. That's what it is. 919 00:46:56,720 --> 00:47:00,960 I mean, you're pumping the, the electrolysis process, you know, 920 00:47:00,960 --> 00:47:03,720 is about, you know, breaking the, the, the bonds open with 921 00:47:03,720 --> 00:47:06,960 electricity. So you know, it's, it's, that's 922 00:47:06,960 --> 00:47:12,280 what it is, right. So, you know, it kind of changes 923 00:47:12,280 --> 00:47:15,800 the way you you think about aluminium, right, that that's 924 00:47:16,440 --> 00:47:18,320 it's energy. It's a representation of 925 00:47:18,320 --> 00:47:20,120 expended energy. That's right. 926 00:47:20,120 --> 00:47:22,000 And there's an awful lot of energy in it. 927 00:47:22,560 --> 00:47:26,240 You know, aluminium is used like powdered aluminium is used as a 928 00:47:26,240 --> 00:47:29,440 fuel as well because it has so much energy in it. 929 00:47:29,800 --> 00:47:33,920 I used to work at like smelters in days gone. 930 00:47:33,920 --> 00:47:38,360 But you can cut this bit out in smelters, right in days gone by, 931 00:47:38,440 --> 00:47:42,760 right where you worked in a smelter and there'd be, there'd 932 00:47:42,760 --> 00:47:46,520 be a powder plant next to it, right? 933 00:47:46,800 --> 00:47:49,520 Aluminium powder plant. So there was one in Belle Bay 934 00:47:49,520 --> 00:47:51,960 and there was one I worked in Anglesey in North Wales all the 935 00:47:51,960 --> 00:47:53,840 time. This little powder plant next. 936 00:47:53,840 --> 00:47:57,520 So they would take molten metal and then I would solidify it in 937 00:47:57,520 --> 00:48:00,360 a way, you know, through like a nozzle that would make it into a 938 00:48:00,360 --> 00:48:04,840 powder as it, as it solidifier. So you walk into the, you walk 939 00:48:04,840 --> 00:48:06,840 into these buildings like they're all the same around the 940 00:48:06,840 --> 00:48:08,160 world. You walk into the, the front 941 00:48:08,160 --> 00:48:11,440 office of a, of a, you know, of a aluminium powder plant. 942 00:48:12,040 --> 00:48:13,720 And then you walk through the front door and then you turn 943 00:48:13,720 --> 00:48:15,520 right, then you turn left and then left and then right and 944 00:48:15,520 --> 00:48:18,080 then right. And it's like a maze, right? 945 00:48:18,080 --> 00:48:21,000 And you finally make it to a lab and then you go left. 946 00:48:21,360 --> 00:48:23,400 It's a labyrinth. And then you end up in the, you 947 00:48:23,400 --> 00:48:25,320 know, in some, some person's office. 948 00:48:26,360 --> 00:48:27,920 And then he's talking about this power. 949 00:48:27,920 --> 00:48:30,160 I, you know, I pucked up the courage instead of them. 950 00:48:31,320 --> 00:48:33,360 Sorry, why did I have to walk through a maze to get to your 951 00:48:33,360 --> 00:48:35,400 office? And they said, this guy said to 952 00:48:35,400 --> 00:48:40,720 me, seriously, when there's an explosion, then the energy is 953 00:48:40,720 --> 00:48:44,880 dissipated, you know, through the corridors rather than just 954 00:48:44,880 --> 00:48:49,240 blowing the officer like he didn't say if he said when, when 955 00:48:49,400 --> 00:48:52,920 no explosion. Sorry, what am I doing here? 956 00:48:53,120 --> 00:48:54,800 But that's energy. It's the energy. 957 00:48:54,800 --> 00:48:57,800 Now let me That's what it's used for as a powder, as a, as a, as 958 00:48:57,800 --> 00:49:01,680 an explosive, as a fuel. I'd love to hear about energy. 959 00:49:02,280 --> 00:49:04,720 Some of the other operations you mentioned before we started 960 00:49:04,720 --> 00:49:07,480 recording in in Argentina. You've had a spell in in 961 00:49:07,480 --> 00:49:09,520 Northern Wales. Yeah. 962 00:49:10,040 --> 00:49:11,400 Oh, straight. Yeah. 963 00:49:12,320 --> 00:49:17,200 Well, I mean, I, I worked in, at the smelter in, in North Wales 964 00:49:17,200 --> 00:49:19,680 and, you know, I left that smelter with a lot more than I 965 00:49:19,680 --> 00:49:24,720 bargained for IEA wife. And, and so and she's a Welsh 966 00:49:24,720 --> 00:49:28,960 speaker, a Welsh speaking wife. So I had to, so I had to learn 967 00:49:28,960 --> 00:49:32,520 how to speak Welsh. But then I, which I do badly by 968 00:49:32,560 --> 00:49:35,080 the way. But then I, I ended up, you 969 00:49:35,080 --> 00:49:37,760 know, I was invited to do some work down at the Agua smelter 970 00:49:37,760 --> 00:49:42,120 in, in Argentina. And yeah, they speak Spanish and 971 00:49:42,160 --> 00:49:44,800 you know, the place called Plato Madrin, which is Welsh, Welsh 972 00:49:44,840 --> 00:49:47,320 name. And so they spoke Spanish and 973 00:49:47,320 --> 00:49:49,520 Welsh. Never thought my Welsh would 974 00:49:49,520 --> 00:49:51,080 come in handy anywhere, but it did. 975 00:49:51,840 --> 00:49:53,800 So in Argentina 4. Places, of all places, 976 00:49:53,800 --> 00:49:55,000 Argentina. That's right, yeah. 977 00:49:55,120 --> 00:49:57,600 Yeah, and the bauxite there is sourced. 978 00:49:57,600 --> 00:50:00,760 Like, well, it's a smelter, so it's so the alumni it's bringing 979 00:50:00,760 --> 00:50:03,320 in alumina from, you know, from wherever it can. 980 00:50:03,320 --> 00:50:06,760 But yeah, the bauxite, the bauxite it probably, you know, 981 00:50:06,760 --> 00:50:10,360 the alumina could come from one of probably Jamaica because 982 00:50:10,360 --> 00:50:12,040 there are, you know, quite a few refineries. 983 00:50:12,240 --> 00:50:16,360 And it's hydropowered. For I'm not sure about how you 984 00:50:16,360 --> 00:50:18,520 are probably. Yeah, it was. 985 00:50:18,760 --> 00:50:20,760 I was in prayer. It's a really well run smell. 986 00:50:21,680 --> 00:50:28,040 What what with all of that, I guess like historical context on 987 00:50:28,040 --> 00:50:32,880 the the alumina aluminium box like complex like where are we 988 00:50:32,880 --> 00:50:36,920 today? Well, that's a yeah, that's a 989 00:50:36,920 --> 00:50:40,160 very good question. I kind of come back to the to 990 00:50:40,160 --> 00:50:43,080 the markets, right and then kind of project that forward 991 00:50:43,760 --> 00:50:46,160 aluminium for me, it's just still on slow burn. 992 00:50:46,520 --> 00:50:50,600 All of these different markets that aluminium feeds into are 993 00:50:50,600 --> 00:50:56,240 all growing around the world. And so aluminium, you know, the 994 00:50:56,240 --> 00:50:59,480 demand for aluminium is just like they just keep tracking 995 00:50:59,480 --> 00:51:02,360 higher and higher and higher, which means that we will need to 996 00:51:02,360 --> 00:51:04,880 recycle a lot more, but it will mean that we need to produce 997 00:51:04,880 --> 00:51:08,880 more primary aluminium as well. And, you know, we're kind of 998 00:51:08,880 --> 00:51:11,480 looking out over the next sort of five or ten years, you think, 999 00:51:11,480 --> 00:51:12,920 well, where's that? Where's the growth? 1000 00:51:12,920 --> 00:51:14,640 Where's the smelting growth going to come from? 1001 00:51:15,160 --> 00:51:16,720 Because China's now got its cap, right? 1002 00:51:16,840 --> 00:51:19,760 So they're done. I don't think they'll change it. 1003 00:51:20,160 --> 00:51:22,520 I think what they might change is the thing about aluminium 1004 00:51:22,520 --> 00:51:26,040 smelters is that they have a history of capacity creep, 1005 00:51:27,440 --> 00:51:29,360 right? Because you can, you know, over 1006 00:51:29,360 --> 00:51:31,640 time, you know, if you look at the, the, the, you know, the 1007 00:51:31,640 --> 00:51:36,880 current that's used in these, it smells 200 KA, 300 KA 400K, but 1008 00:51:36,880 --> 00:51:38,880 they always manage to get go a bit higher. 1009 00:51:39,680 --> 00:51:42,440 And so, you know, for the same footprint, for the same smelter, 1010 00:51:42,440 --> 00:51:44,440 you can actually produce a bit more primary. 1011 00:51:44,440 --> 00:51:47,600 I kind of look at the, you know, the, the, the cap in China and 1012 00:51:47,840 --> 00:51:52,720 think, well, I don't really think it kind of fits the, the 1013 00:51:52,720 --> 00:51:55,800 purpose of not building any smelters, right? 1014 00:51:55,800 --> 00:51:59,880 To to, to be, to not improve efficiency as well. 1015 00:52:01,200 --> 00:52:03,400 Do you know what I mean? I find it hard to believe that 1016 00:52:03,400 --> 00:52:06,160 they would say, well, OK, you can't improve your efficiency 1017 00:52:06,160 --> 00:52:07,960 because we're going to cap you at 45,000,000. 1018 00:52:08,200 --> 00:52:09,520 So I think maybe you see some creep. 1019 00:52:09,520 --> 00:52:11,400 Existing ones to be to. Be. 1020 00:52:11,400 --> 00:52:13,200 Profitable, especially when. They're worried about as 1021 00:52:13,200 --> 00:52:15,520 efficient as efficient as possible. 1022 00:52:15,760 --> 00:52:18,920 Reminds me, by the way, just coming back to Alcan, just for a 1023 00:52:18,920 --> 00:52:21,480 moment. Yeah, it stuck in my head. 1024 00:52:21,480 --> 00:52:24,840 I don't know who it was. Somebody from Rio who said that 1025 00:52:25,280 --> 00:52:29,120 within 18 months of the Alcan transaction, China will be a net 1026 00:52:29,120 --> 00:52:32,440 importer of primary aluminium. Fuck. 1027 00:52:33,280 --> 00:52:35,920 Never happened? Yeah, never happened. 1028 00:52:36,400 --> 00:52:39,120 They they drank the blade. They, that's right. 1029 00:52:39,120 --> 00:52:42,880 They, I mean they built, you know, 20-30 million tonnes of 1030 00:52:42,880 --> 00:52:46,560 smelting capacity themselves. So it was great. 1031 00:52:46,560 --> 00:52:48,200 Sorry I'm off on a tangent, David. 1032 00:52:48,440 --> 00:52:49,720 That's amazing. It is. 1033 00:52:50,160 --> 00:52:53,520 So where we are today, China. China will never, that will 1034 00:52:53,520 --> 00:52:57,920 never change their I mean, but it was a policy set yonks ago. 1035 00:52:58,400 --> 00:53:00,280 Well, the 45 cap, yeah, not that far. 1036 00:53:00,280 --> 00:53:02,000 A few years back. A few years back, yeah. 1037 00:53:02,000 --> 00:53:04,200 Yeah, right. But you're you're. 1038 00:53:04,320 --> 00:53:06,840 I, I think what you, you know, what we're seeing in China now 1039 00:53:06,840 --> 00:53:09,520 in terms of investment into the sector, it's all recycled. 1040 00:53:10,000 --> 00:53:11,640 OK. And it's the systems that they 1041 00:53:11,640 --> 00:53:14,480 need to put in place to collect the recycle and get it back into 1042 00:53:14,480 --> 00:53:17,000 the system. So it's a very, very strong 1043 00:53:17,720 --> 00:53:20,720 emphasis on getting that up to the rates of other countries. 1044 00:53:21,280 --> 00:53:26,520 So, so China's smelting capacity, let's let's assume you 1045 00:53:26,520 --> 00:53:29,120 know, won't change for a while, but demand is growing. 1046 00:53:29,120 --> 00:53:33,680 So you kind of have to look rest of the world, Guinea. 1047 00:53:34,560 --> 00:53:35,760 Want. It they want it. 1048 00:53:35,760 --> 00:53:38,760 For a Lumina, they don't even you know, it's always back to 1049 00:53:38,760 --> 00:53:40,640 smelting, right? I mean where the smelting, the 1050 00:53:40,640 --> 00:53:44,040 smelting capacity goes, where you've got low cost electricity. 1051 00:53:44,600 --> 00:53:46,720 So you know, one of the hot spots in the world is obviously 1052 00:53:46,720 --> 00:53:49,920 the Middle East big produces a primary aluminium, not alumina 1053 00:53:50,400 --> 00:53:51,960 primary aluminium. And I think we'll see more 1054 00:53:51,960 --> 00:53:56,440 capacity going to the Middle East based on gas, right, 1055 00:53:56,440 --> 00:53:59,040 because it's got a a lower carbon footprint than coal. 1056 00:53:59,080 --> 00:54:03,440 It's still not net 0, but it's. Lower and they're importing 1057 00:54:03,560 --> 00:54:05,920 alumina from wherever. All over the place. 1058 00:54:06,120 --> 00:54:09,160 Australia, yeah, a lot of the WA, a lot of the, the, the 1059 00:54:09,160 --> 00:54:10,680 alumina from here goes to the Middle East. 1060 00:54:11,200 --> 00:54:13,000 That's interesting. Africa and to the Middle East, 1061 00:54:13,440 --> 00:54:15,560 yeah, yeah. So I think you see more smelting 1062 00:54:15,560 --> 00:54:18,120 capacity in the Middle East. You might see more smelting 1063 00:54:18,120 --> 00:54:20,800 capacity in Southeast Asia. As well they, they do have an 1064 00:54:20,800 --> 00:54:24,280 aggressive policy to build out, you know, a big industrial 1065 00:54:24,280 --> 00:54:25,600 sector there right. Like, I mean we've. 1066 00:54:25,760 --> 00:54:28,480 In the Middle East, Yeah, Well, especially where it's, I mean, 1067 00:54:28,560 --> 00:54:31,240 you know, they, they've been looking to to, you know, change 1068 00:54:31,240 --> 00:54:34,760 the, you know, the means by which they generate wealth for 1069 00:54:34,760 --> 00:54:36,560 for quite a while. But they've been active in the 1070 00:54:36,560 --> 00:54:38,200 aluminium ministry for a long, long time. 1071 00:54:38,720 --> 00:54:41,840 Their first smelters went into the into the Middle East, went 1072 00:54:41,840 --> 00:54:42,920 down. When I started in the 1073 00:54:42,920 --> 00:54:44,400 industries, that was decades ago. 1074 00:54:45,960 --> 00:54:49,440 Where are the marginal bauxite tonnes coming from? 1075 00:54:50,560 --> 00:54:54,640 Well into China, so it's a China market, remember so and remember 1076 00:54:54,640 --> 00:54:57,840 also because now you guys know a lot about books, I right. 1077 00:54:57,840 --> 00:55:00,000 So know that the whole idea of value and use, when you look at 1078 00:55:00,000 --> 00:55:02,360 these samples, see the whole idea of value and use is 1079 00:55:02,360 --> 00:55:06,720 absolutely critical. Whether it's 33% alumina from WA 1080 00:55:07,320 --> 00:55:13,640 or 45 from from Guinea or 55 from within China, you've got to 1081 00:55:13,720 --> 00:55:17,280 do that value and use calculation, right to see who's 1082 00:55:17,280 --> 00:55:20,760 sitting at the margin on a value and use adjusted basis and on 1083 00:55:20,760 --> 00:55:23,160 our analysis, right. Now on that value and use 1084 00:55:23,160 --> 00:55:25,400 adjusted basis, so it's basically like, yeah, how how 1085 00:55:25,400 --> 00:55:29,040 many units of aluminium can you actually or alumina or alumina 1086 00:55:29,040 --> 00:55:31,000 can you actually? Think of it this way, right? 1087 00:55:32,280 --> 00:55:34,960 If I've got a, if I've got a refinery sitting in China, 1088 00:55:34,960 --> 00:55:37,600 right, and I've got some choice, not a lot of choice because now 1089 00:55:37,600 --> 00:55:39,240 you know how a refinery works, right? 1090 00:55:39,240 --> 00:55:41,440 So you want to keep the, the variation down. 1091 00:55:41,440 --> 00:55:44,800 But if I've got the choice of, of, of processing a book site 1092 00:55:44,800 --> 00:55:51,400 that comes from Guinea or from say Brazil or from just say 1093 00:55:51,920 --> 00:55:56,360 Malaysia, for example, right now, am I better off paying 75 1094 00:55:56,360 --> 00:55:59,760 bucks for the book site from Guinea or am I better off paying 1095 00:56:00,080 --> 00:56:04,400 50 for the Malaysian book site Now the answer is probably 70 1096 00:56:04,560 --> 00:56:07,120 from Guinea because it's that value and use adjustment. 1097 00:56:07,120 --> 00:56:11,000 It's the fact that you've got the high available alumina, 1098 00:56:11,120 --> 00:56:14,760 you've got low reacting silica in the in the Ghanaian bauxite. 1099 00:56:15,080 --> 00:56:17,000 So you're consuming less caustic soda. 1100 00:56:17,000 --> 00:56:19,800 You're you know, you're dissolving, you know at a lower 1101 00:56:19,800 --> 00:56:21,720 temperature. So your energy costs are lower. 1102 00:56:22,040 --> 00:56:24,240 And so you've got to take all of these things into consideration 1103 00:56:24,640 --> 00:56:26,640 and then bring it back to the cost curve right then go well, 1104 00:56:26,760 --> 00:56:29,800 OK, on a value when you suggested basis who is sitting 1105 00:56:29,800 --> 00:56:31,560 in the margin and on our analysis right now, it's 1106 00:56:31,560 --> 00:56:34,000 actually some of the Ghanaian the low lower grade Ghanaian 1107 00:56:34,000 --> 00:56:34,680 producers. So. 1108 00:56:35,320 --> 00:56:38,880 Every every refiner has a different cost curve if they're 1109 00:56:39,200 --> 00:56:40,880 if they're looking to source seaborne. 1110 00:56:41,560 --> 00:56:44,840 Every refiner has a different cost to produce alumina. 1111 00:56:45,240 --> 00:56:48,320 Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, Hugely different based on 1112 00:56:48,320 --> 00:56:50,480 the bauxite that they're processing and the amount of 1113 00:56:50,480 --> 00:56:52,240 cost that they're consuming and the amount of energy. 1114 00:56:52,240 --> 00:56:56,120 Because remember, if you're, you know, if you're dissolving at 1115 00:56:56,640 --> 00:57:02,480 120 or 130° versus dissolving it to 80, then your energy loads 1116 00:57:02,480 --> 00:57:06,360 are very different, but you're getting more alumina, right? 1117 00:57:06,360 --> 00:57:11,040 Because typically if you are, you know, if you're, you know, 1118 00:57:11,040 --> 00:57:13,960 if you've got like a high temperature type of books, I 1119 00:57:13,960 --> 00:57:15,280 think it's got more alumina in it. 1120 00:57:15,400 --> 00:57:16,720 Otherwise you wouldn't bother chasing it. 1121 00:57:17,800 --> 00:57:20,600 So, you know, there's a lot of, there's a, there's a lot of 1122 00:57:20,600 --> 00:57:23,720 moving parts to a, you know, to understanding how that that cost 1123 00:57:23,720 --> 00:57:27,680 curve kind of fits together. And to just to touch on the, the 1124 00:57:27,680 --> 00:57:31,120 contracts, so how the dealers are negotiated between the, the 1125 00:57:31,120 --> 00:57:36,200 books that producers and the refiners, are we talking 1126 00:57:36,200 --> 00:57:40,400 contracts that'll be signed for a few years at a time and the, 1127 00:57:40,400 --> 00:57:44,040 and the pricing dynamics it will sort of be measured against 1128 00:57:44,040 --> 00:57:46,000 spot. It takes a while to react. 1129 00:57:46,000 --> 00:57:48,800 What are the sort of characteristics of a contract? 1130 00:57:49,000 --> 00:57:53,520 It's well, first of all, you have to slice out of that the 1131 00:57:53,560 --> 00:57:56,320 all of the vertically integrated production because it's just 1132 00:57:56,320 --> 00:58:00,160 coming across, you know, here's my books like my mind mouth, the 1133 00:58:00,160 --> 00:58:02,360 refinery model. So we'll slice all that out of 1134 00:58:02,360 --> 00:58:04,040 the way, right, because that that happens. 1135 00:58:04,920 --> 00:58:06,720 Then the next layer is long term contracts. 1136 00:58:07,200 --> 00:58:10,040 So you might see, you know, books on this going from from 1137 00:58:10,200 --> 00:58:12,960 Queensland into China. Some of it can be like on a 10 1138 00:58:12,960 --> 00:58:15,400 year contract. Some of the stuff that can come 1139 00:58:15,400 --> 00:58:18,200 from Guinea can be on multiple year contracts as well. 1140 00:58:18,600 --> 00:58:22,440 And those prices will be bilaterally negotiated pretty 1141 00:58:22,440 --> 00:58:24,680 much. With like floors and ceilings or 1142 00:58:24,680 --> 00:58:28,120 is there a? Yeah, there's, but there's also 1143 00:58:28,120 --> 00:58:31,080 there's bonuses and penalties around grade, all the sort of 1144 00:58:31,080 --> 00:58:32,880 stuff that you expect, right? I see. 1145 00:58:33,040 --> 00:58:35,680 Yeah. But about, I don't know, about 1146 00:58:35,680 --> 00:58:38,920 10 years ago we kind of looked at it and said we can see it 1147 00:58:39,160 --> 00:58:40,920 moving to an index at some point. 1148 00:58:40,920 --> 00:58:44,560 It will move to index pricing. But the barrier has always been 1149 00:58:44,560 --> 00:58:46,880 the whole idea of value on uses because they, you know, these 1150 00:58:46,880 --> 00:58:49,080 books sites that vary so much in grades. 1151 00:58:50,080 --> 00:58:52,080 But now we're starting to see that happen. 1152 00:58:52,080 --> 00:58:56,120 You know, Rio's been out to tender for bauxite in the past 1153 00:58:56,120 --> 00:58:57,360 year or so. They've, I think they've put out 1154 00:58:57,360 --> 00:59:00,760 two or three tenders for bauxite from you know, from Govan, from 1155 00:59:01,160 --> 00:59:03,640 Queensland, from from Guinea as well. 1156 00:59:04,080 --> 00:59:08,120 So I think we're now at the point where indexes will start 1157 00:59:08,120 --> 00:59:12,160 to play a role in setting the price some, some spot deals, I 1158 00:59:12,160 --> 00:59:14,320 mean and then that will flow through to the longer term 1159 00:59:14,320 --> 00:59:16,920 contracts. And and that that's an index 1160 00:59:16,920 --> 00:59:19,280 that's adjusted based on the value and use of. 1161 00:59:19,720 --> 00:59:22,160 Well, we do we. So we publish 2 indexes at the 1162 00:59:22,160 --> 00:59:23,840 moment. We publish a Guinea, what we 1163 00:59:23,840 --> 00:59:26,720 call the G Bix index, which is a standard grade of Guinea and 1164 00:59:26,720 --> 00:59:32,960 bauxite. So 45% total alumina and 3% I 1165 00:59:32,960 --> 00:59:35,920 think total silica. And so you know, you can take 1166 00:59:35,920 --> 00:59:39,440 that as your reference point sort of like 60 to 65, yeah, 1167 00:59:39,440 --> 00:59:41,480 same sort of thing. And then you would just sort of 1168 00:59:41,480 --> 00:59:43,880 bonuses, penalties, you know, up and down from that. 1169 00:59:43,880 --> 00:59:46,520 And we do the same for an Australian book site as well. 1170 00:59:47,200 --> 00:59:50,200 So yeah, I think with time now we'll we'll start to get some 1171 00:59:50,280 --> 00:59:51,720 traction on it. It'll find its way in the 1172 00:59:51,720 --> 00:59:54,160 contracts. Very interesting. 1173 00:59:54,320 --> 00:59:59,360 Will the will the the like? There's not many. 1174 01:00:00,240 --> 01:00:04,000 Producers of sort of seaborne oxalate, for all intents and 1175 01:00:04,000 --> 01:00:07,680 purposes, will that change? Do you think it becomes more 1176 01:00:07,680 --> 01:00:11,280 fragmented or do you think there are just like constraints why 1177 01:00:11,280 --> 01:00:13,720 that's a challenge proposition in the first place? 1178 01:00:16,080 --> 01:00:18,800 Look, you know it, I think it depends on what happens in 1179 01:00:18,800 --> 01:00:22,840 Guinea to a, to a large extent. I mean, Guinea now you know, 1180 01:00:22,840 --> 01:00:26,320 115,000,000 tonnes worth. The number is, it's, it's almost 1181 01:00:26,320 --> 01:00:31,040 as if that's, I mean, you know, Chinese, China's aluminium 1182 01:00:31,040 --> 01:00:34,560 industry is addicted to getting in bauxite, right? 1183 01:00:35,960 --> 01:00:37,920 And where else can you get it from? 1184 01:00:38,760 --> 01:00:42,000 Because you know, it's, if it's an addiction, I mean, I mean, I 1185 01:00:42,000 --> 01:00:43,680 think you know, the Chinese have come out themselves. 1186 01:00:43,680 --> 01:00:45,800 Some refiners have come out in the past, I don't know, six 1187 01:00:45,800 --> 01:00:47,680 months or so and said we need to diversify. 1188 01:00:49,120 --> 01:00:51,440 But where can you get it from? You can get some from Australia, 1189 01:00:51,440 --> 01:00:55,400 but getting new mines started in Australia is just takes such a 1190 01:00:55,400 --> 01:00:58,200 long time. So it's hard. 1191 01:00:58,200 --> 01:01:01,000 And you know, does Australia want to be in bauxite mining? 1192 01:01:01,000 --> 01:01:02,760 I mean, I think that's an open question at the moment. 1193 01:01:02,920 --> 01:01:06,480 I can't understand why it's an open question, but it is. 1194 01:01:06,920 --> 01:01:08,120 Where else in the world can you go? 1195 01:01:09,440 --> 01:01:11,280 It's there's just not a lot of options out there. 1196 01:01:11,760 --> 01:01:14,480 Vietnam is has got really great bauxite, but they have a 1197 01:01:14,480 --> 01:01:17,920 minerals export ban, effectively a minerals export ban as well. 1198 01:01:18,600 --> 01:01:21,560 They can't get it from there. But China has been out like all 1199 01:01:21,560 --> 01:01:24,240 these crazy countries that they've been out trying to find 1200 01:01:24,720 --> 01:01:28,200 and source large volumes of bauxite from now I mentioned 1201 01:01:28,200 --> 01:01:32,520 Jamaica earlier. I mean Jamaican, Jamaican 1202 01:01:32,520 --> 01:01:34,240 bauxite. If I had a, if I had a like a 1203 01:01:34,240 --> 01:01:39,080 jar of Jamaican bauxite, it would be dust, right? 1204 01:01:39,120 --> 01:01:43,240 And it would be 17% moisture. And then and if you dropped it 1205 01:01:43,240 --> 01:01:46,400 below 17% moisture, it'll dust. And so when you load a vessel 1206 01:01:46,840 --> 01:01:50,680 which it comes out of the ground 25% right moisture, then it's 1207 01:01:50,840 --> 01:01:55,480 it's tried. And so and if you try to load it 1208 01:01:55,480 --> 01:01:59,400 onto a vessel less than about 7 and it just I mean massive 1209 01:01:59,400 --> 01:02:02,240 plumes of of bulk sites. Actually problematic. 1210 01:02:02,520 --> 01:02:06,240 Yeah, the first time a bulk side vessel went to China with 1211 01:02:06,440 --> 01:02:08,200 Jamaican bulk site, right? Yeah. 1212 01:02:09,400 --> 01:02:11,960 When they had started unloading it at Qingdao Port, they 1213 01:02:11,960 --> 01:02:14,760 basically shut the port down because everybody in the 1214 01:02:14,760 --> 01:02:17,080 neighbourhood complained that all their body washing was 1215 01:02:17,080 --> 01:02:20,840 turning orange because there were just these massive plumes 1216 01:02:20,840 --> 01:02:23,880 of, you know, of books like dust is they, they picked up, you 1217 01:02:23,880 --> 01:02:25,680 know, they're picking it up with grabs and just dropping it on 1218 01:02:25,680 --> 01:02:28,640 the on the port, right. It's just all these poems. 1219 01:02:28,640 --> 01:02:31,280 This guy, I remember this guy rang me and said, this is crazy. 1220 01:02:31,280 --> 01:02:33,800 They've had to shut down the whole of Qingdao port because 1221 01:02:34,200 --> 01:02:36,840 this, you know, this box I'm unloading is terrible. 1222 01:02:37,960 --> 01:02:40,680 And then, you know, two or three days later, the same guy called 1223 01:02:40,680 --> 01:02:43,360 me and then he started talking about something completely 1224 01:02:43,360 --> 01:02:44,800 different. I can't remember what he said. 1225 01:02:44,920 --> 01:02:47,720 And I said to him, sorry, just go back to the what what 1226 01:02:47,720 --> 01:02:50,800 happened at Qingdao? He said, oh, no, no, they solved 1227 01:02:50,800 --> 01:02:51,960 that problem. What they do. 1228 01:02:51,960 --> 01:02:52,960 He said, oh, they did it at night. 1229 01:02:52,960 --> 01:02:58,240 Yeah, he says, but when I mean, when that stuff made it to the 1230 01:02:58,240 --> 01:03:00,880 refinery, right? The, the, and, you know, you can 1231 01:03:00,880 --> 01:03:03,480 imagine how much got lost in the waggons because it went inland, 1232 01:03:03,680 --> 01:03:05,640 right? So when it finally got there, I 1233 01:03:05,640 --> 01:03:08,440 mean, I'm, I'm, I'm going to paraphrase the refinery manager 1234 01:03:08,440 --> 01:03:09,960 here. He basically said, how many of 1235 01:03:09,960 --> 01:03:13,040 these, how many boatloads of this stuff did you buy? 1236 01:03:13,800 --> 01:03:16,000 They said, I don't know, 3 or 4. And he said, well, I don't care 1237 01:03:16,000 --> 01:03:18,720 what you do with the other two or three, but don't bring them 1238 01:03:18,720 --> 01:03:22,920 to my refinery because it's just so difficult to handle. 1239 01:03:23,120 --> 01:03:26,560 You don't have the handling system set up for dust, you 1240 01:03:26,560 --> 01:03:29,400 know, because that fine, right? I mean, the, the the refineries 1241 01:03:29,400 --> 01:03:33,240 that traded Jamaican bauxite have got no grinding circuit. 1242 01:03:33,720 --> 01:03:36,040 You don't need it. All right. 1243 01:03:36,040 --> 01:03:38,040 So you can imagine that if they want to try and take bauxite 1244 01:03:38,040 --> 01:03:39,880 from somewhere else, they're going to install the grinding 1245 01:03:39,880 --> 01:03:41,160 circuit. That's. 1246 01:03:41,160 --> 01:03:42,800 Crazy. It's a great story. 1247 01:03:42,800 --> 01:03:44,160 I think it's in the world for sale. 1248 01:03:44,640 --> 01:03:48,720 And I think Long story short, Mark Rich, Mark Rich and Co, 1249 01:03:48,720 --> 01:03:54,160 Glencore negotiate a deal to have the off take to all of 1250 01:03:54,160 --> 01:03:58,800 Jamaica's bauxite because the government has run out of money, 1251 01:03:58,800 --> 01:04:01,160 if I remember it right. And they call Mark Rich at two 1252 01:04:01,160 --> 01:04:03,840 or three in the morning and he transfers the money that the 1253 01:04:03,840 --> 01:04:07,880 government needs by the next day or whatever, he signs a 10 or 20 1254 01:04:07,880 --> 01:04:09,960 or 30 year deal. Yeah, amazing. 1255 01:04:10,080 --> 01:04:13,000 That's the good old days, Yeah, You need to talk. 1256 01:04:13,000 --> 01:04:14,720 If nobody's told you before, you need to. 1257 01:04:14,760 --> 01:04:16,120 Have you heard of a guy called Jim Lennon? 1258 01:04:16,760 --> 01:04:18,040 Yes. Macquarie, Macquarie. 1259 01:04:18,080 --> 01:04:20,320 Macquarie Yeah, yeah. I mean, Jim is one of the 1260 01:04:20,320 --> 01:04:24,240 legends of, of, of our industry. Yeah, but but he he knows Dick, 1261 01:04:24,240 --> 01:04:25,760 but he was a mate of Mark Richards. 1262 01:04:26,040 --> 01:04:27,640 Yeah, right. Jim. 1263 01:04:28,040 --> 01:04:30,200 So yes. Jim, that'd be a fascinating. 1264 01:04:30,200 --> 01:04:31,280 Conversation. Yeah. 1265 01:04:31,880 --> 01:04:33,160 Hell of a gentleman, Jim. Yeah. 1266 01:04:33,360 --> 01:04:37,800 I think we should talk a bit about WA specifically in the, 1267 01:04:37,960 --> 01:04:42,240 the challenges that the industry has kind of faced in in recent 1268 01:04:42,240 --> 01:04:44,880 times like you, like you outlined, we've got a long 1269 01:04:44,880 --> 01:04:49,200 history with oxide and alumina refineries. 1270 01:04:49,200 --> 01:04:53,440 So, but the the challenges have sort of really come to the fore 1271 01:04:53,640 --> 01:04:57,400 in the in the recent months years so, so. 1272 01:04:57,560 --> 01:04:59,400 Yeah. I mean, I remember it's the 1273 01:04:59,400 --> 01:05:01,720 start of this year. It was like really early January 1274 01:05:01,720 --> 01:05:06,480 where Alcoa announced our kitailing Kwinana. 1275 01:05:07,040 --> 01:05:09,080 Yes. January I think. 1276 01:05:09,560 --> 01:05:15,760 And then I mean that then the a whack deal kind of ended up 1277 01:05:15,760 --> 01:05:17,480 going through and all of a sudden. 1278 01:05:18,680 --> 01:05:20,920 See. Alcohol is this even more kind 1279 01:05:20,920 --> 01:05:24,000 of you know distant company in some ways and then and then S 32 1280 01:05:24,800 --> 01:05:26,120 faced their. Right. 1281 01:05:26,240 --> 01:05:29,360 It's right down at Worsley in June, July. 1282 01:05:29,360 --> 01:05:32,640 So how have you sort of seen that the challenges, you know, 1283 01:05:32,640 --> 01:05:35,160 positioned from outside the state, but we've sort of deep 1284 01:05:35,400 --> 01:05:41,000 into 3 expertise? Concerning I think would be the 1285 01:05:41,600 --> 01:05:43,560 word ideas. I mean you, you know these, 1286 01:05:44,240 --> 01:05:46,840 these refineries with the exception of Quinana, I mean 1287 01:05:47,120 --> 01:05:50,160 Quinana's closed and and it was a high cost refinery. 1288 01:05:50,160 --> 01:05:55,080 So you'd expect it for the for for Alco to take that decision 1289 01:05:55,080 --> 01:05:58,440 at some point my rational economic decision in my view, 1290 01:06:00,360 --> 01:06:04,240 the other three refineries here are all on our assessment Q1 1291 01:06:04,840 --> 01:06:09,640 right, alumina producing. The other three Worsley. 1292 01:06:10,080 --> 01:06:14,040 Wager up, Pinjara. And the latter 2 are both Alcoa. 1293 01:06:14,240 --> 01:06:15,520 Yeah. And Worsley S 32. 1294 01:06:15,640 --> 01:06:16,280 Gotcha. Yeah. 1295 01:06:16,680 --> 01:06:24,320 So they're all low cost, you know, Q1 refineries, but they 1296 01:06:24,320 --> 01:06:27,760 find themselves in this, you know, this odd position where 1297 01:06:27,920 --> 01:06:32,000 they're accessing the bulk site that they need to remain Q1 1298 01:06:32,000 --> 01:06:35,360 producers is becoming more and more difficult for them. 1299 01:06:36,800 --> 01:06:40,720 And as they do, then you know, what do they do? 1300 01:06:40,800 --> 01:06:43,360 Well, you know, as you're going through the process of, you 1301 01:06:43,360 --> 01:06:47,960 know, of, you know, compliance and, and licencing and so forth 1302 01:06:47,960 --> 01:06:51,440 to, to shift your mind to different places, which they've 1303 01:06:51,440 --> 01:06:53,000 known they've needed to do for a long time. 1304 01:06:53,000 --> 01:06:58,080 All right, that as that time gets extended, then you've got 1305 01:06:58,080 --> 01:07:00,600 to do something. You can't just shut the 1306 01:07:00,600 --> 01:07:02,280 refineries. Refineries don't work that you 1307 01:07:02,320 --> 01:07:04,400 shut the refinery. That costs you a lot of a lot of 1308 01:07:04,400 --> 01:07:06,520 money you don't want to shut. So what do you do? 1309 01:07:06,520 --> 01:07:09,640 Well, you have to go back to where you mined it before and 1310 01:07:09,640 --> 01:07:14,600 where you've where you've spent a lot of money to kind of 1311 01:07:15,160 --> 01:07:17,800 rejuvenate and. Rehab and everything. 1312 01:07:18,120 --> 01:07:19,840 And rehab. Dig it up. 1313 01:07:20,520 --> 01:07:26,520 So, so all right to spell that out the, the, the the political 1314 01:07:26,520 --> 01:07:31,240 situation is 1 where the the environmental permitting has 1315 01:07:31,240 --> 01:07:35,520 been so restrictive or or. Well, tedious. 1316 01:07:35,520 --> 01:07:40,080 Tedious and and and unclear. That they don't have approval to 1317 01:07:40,080 --> 01:07:44,000 necessarily mine where they where it makes sense to mine or 1318 01:07:44,280 --> 01:07:48,000 yeah, because there's maybe unnecessary delays. 1319 01:07:49,440 --> 01:07:51,480 Yeah. Well, I mean, I, I would call 1320 01:07:51,480 --> 01:07:54,920 them unnecessary delays in that if the, you know, if the, if 1321 01:07:54,920 --> 01:07:57,960 the, if the process was well documented and the process was 1322 01:07:57,960 --> 01:08:03,080 followed, then it would be clear and you would know, you know how 1323 01:08:03,080 --> 01:08:05,560 long it's going to take and you can plan accordingly. 1324 01:08:05,920 --> 01:08:11,240 Remember, these are assets that you know, that, that they need 1325 01:08:11,240 --> 01:08:15,840 to run for, for decades, not the next, you know, five years or 1326 01:08:15,840 --> 01:08:17,359 so. They've got a plan for decades, 1327 01:08:17,359 --> 01:08:19,600 especially if they're going to, you know, transition to sort of 1328 01:08:19,600 --> 01:08:23,040 net 0 by 2050, right? They, they require massive 1329 01:08:23,040 --> 01:08:24,800 investment. So you need clarity. 1330 01:08:24,840 --> 01:08:28,840 You need clarity about, you know, oxide supply and what 1331 01:08:28,840 --> 01:08:32,399 that's going to be and, and, and what impact that's going to have 1332 01:08:32,399 --> 01:08:36,000 on the, on the refinery. And so, you know, they find 1333 01:08:36,000 --> 01:08:39,640 themselves in a situation where with that, that that process is 1334 01:08:39,640 --> 01:08:44,920 not clear, what they have to do to satisfy the requirements is 1335 01:08:44,920 --> 01:08:50,840 changing sort of on the fly. So you still have to keep the 1336 01:08:50,840 --> 01:08:54,080 refinery running. So, you know, what do you do? 1337 01:08:54,160 --> 01:08:56,960 You have to feed in bauxite that's of lower grade and just, 1338 01:08:57,200 --> 01:09:01,200 you know, you just kind of March up the cost curve as a result 1339 01:09:01,240 --> 01:09:04,720 because now you're treating, you know, bauxite that's probably 1340 01:09:04,720 --> 01:09:06,560 got a grade that starts with A2 and not a three. 1341 01:09:07,640 --> 01:09:10,600 And that just has an immediate impact on on costs. 1342 01:09:10,600 --> 01:09:14,600 And that, you know, that brings into question the yeah, you 1343 01:09:14,600 --> 01:09:17,960 know, the the industry. And all like you know both of W 1344 01:09:17,960 --> 01:09:20,040 as miners are in a a similar predicament. 1345 01:09:20,960 --> 01:09:23,399 In Yeah, yeah, I think so. I mean, for different reasons. 1346 01:09:23,399 --> 01:09:26,680 They're not, you know, they've. I I think when you look at 1347 01:09:26,680 --> 01:09:30,120 what's actually happened, nobody comes out of it sort of smelling 1348 01:09:30,120 --> 01:09:33,960 of roses. Yeah, but they're in a tough 1349 01:09:34,080 --> 01:09:38,319 spot. I mean, the Q1, the Q1, for what 1350 01:09:38,319 --> 01:09:40,439 reasons is it? Is it the quality of the box 1351 01:09:40,439 --> 01:09:43,080 that they might have, but also that the energy cost is quite 1352 01:09:43,080 --> 01:09:45,600 low here because of our domestic gas reservation? 1353 01:09:45,600 --> 01:09:46,760 Well, it's all of those things. Yeah. 1354 01:09:46,760 --> 01:09:49,120 I mean, remember, that's that, you know, the bauxite grade is 1355 01:09:49,120 --> 01:09:49,800 low. Yeah. 1356 01:09:49,800 --> 01:09:54,440 It's only sort of meant to be sort of 3233% available alumina. 1357 01:09:54,440 --> 01:09:57,520 So excuse me on a world stand. That's pretty low. 1358 01:09:57,720 --> 01:09:59,080 Yeah. There's no silica. 1359 01:09:59,200 --> 01:10:01,320 Yeah, I mean, there's sand, but you can take that out. 1360 01:10:01,320 --> 01:10:03,480 But there's no reacting silica. It's not much clay. 1361 01:10:04,080 --> 01:10:07,040 So you're not you're not consuming much caustic soda and 1362 01:10:07,040 --> 01:10:09,440 because Gibbs are it's low energy. 1363 01:10:10,480 --> 01:10:12,520 So it's a low it's a low temperature refinery. 1364 01:10:12,960 --> 01:10:15,840 So you tick a lot of boxes there and then they will managed 1365 01:10:16,120 --> 01:10:19,120 refineries as well. So you know, that's why they 1366 01:10:19,200 --> 01:10:20,440 that's why they're sitting in Q1. 1367 01:10:20,720 --> 01:10:22,960 There's there's also the challenge that that energy 1368 01:10:22,960 --> 01:10:27,000 component, albeit maybe lower than some other refineries will 1369 01:10:27,000 --> 01:10:30,680 tick up in time given the domestic gas policy and other 1370 01:10:30,680 --> 01:10:32,640 sort of challenges we've faced as well. 1371 01:10:32,720 --> 01:10:34,920 Yeah, it's true. And I mean they've got to, 1372 01:10:35,080 --> 01:10:38,000 they've got to face that, got to face, you know, converting their 1373 01:10:38,000 --> 01:10:41,400 boilers to to, you know, renewables as well. 1374 01:10:41,400 --> 01:10:46,320 I mean, it's cost and it pushes the, you know, pushes the the 1375 01:10:46,560 --> 01:10:51,480 cash cost up, but you need line of sight on your future to be 1376 01:10:51,480 --> 01:10:52,920 able to make those sorts of investments. 1377 01:10:52,920 --> 01:10:54,640 You need to know that you're going to be doing this for the 1378 01:10:54,640 --> 01:10:56,640 next 20 or 30 years, not the next 5. 1379 01:10:56,880 --> 01:10:59,240 As Maddie would say, just Chuck an SMR in it collie mate. 1380 01:11:01,120 --> 01:11:07,000 Get a reactor going. So, so the the key aspect of 1381 01:11:07,000 --> 01:11:13,200 this then is does our government here, WA and and Australia 1382 01:11:14,800 --> 01:11:17,920 understand that? Are they, you know, do they 1383 01:11:17,920 --> 01:11:20,400 understand that the challenges that the industry is kind of 1384 01:11:20,400 --> 01:11:22,040 facing? Do you have any insight on that? 1385 01:11:22,040 --> 01:11:23,480 Do you? Have a on that. 1386 01:11:24,280 --> 01:11:27,000 I mean from our experience and you know, some of the work that 1387 01:11:27,000 --> 01:11:29,280 we've done for the, you know, for the Australian Aluminium 1388 01:11:29,280 --> 01:11:31,600 Council would suggest to me that they don't. 1389 01:11:32,240 --> 01:11:35,120 You do get the feeling as sort of policy on the run here, 1390 01:11:35,440 --> 01:11:38,200 especially when you look at it through the the lens of critical 1391 01:11:38,200 --> 01:11:41,680 minerals because you know in in Australia, we don't consider 1392 01:11:41,840 --> 01:11:44,240 bauxite, aluminium, prime aluminium as critical minerals, 1393 01:11:45,080 --> 01:11:51,120 but US does and the the EU does, but we don't it is it's odd 1394 01:11:51,120 --> 01:11:53,000 because. But the reason I think they give 1395 01:11:53,000 --> 01:11:55,200 is because of the scale of the operation here. 1396 01:11:55,200 --> 01:11:58,000 Yeah, and and because. Our own, yeah, our own supply 1397 01:11:58,000 --> 01:12:00,120 means that when we don't, that's. 1398 01:12:00,720 --> 01:12:03,520 And our supply chain? I mean, it's fucking critical 1399 01:12:03,520 --> 01:12:06,280 anyway. Met call is fucking critical 1400 01:12:06,280 --> 01:12:07,280 anyway. Easy, easy. 1401 01:12:09,320 --> 01:12:12,080 But I mean, I, I agree. I mean, I think it it should be, 1402 01:12:12,080 --> 01:12:15,240 it should be a critical and that kind of changes the approach, 1403 01:12:15,240 --> 01:12:18,640 changes the rules a little bit for for you know, the aluminium 1404 01:12:18,760 --> 01:12:21,400 upstream aluminium place. And I think that it should be. 1405 01:12:21,600 --> 01:12:25,000 I think we should be taking the same approach as other similar 1406 01:12:25,000 --> 01:12:27,160 sort of countries. How about in in Queensland? 1407 01:12:27,160 --> 01:12:29,560 What's the we hear much more of the WA situation? 1408 01:12:29,560 --> 01:12:33,040 What's the picture like there? I mean, it's a little, I mean 1409 01:12:33,040 --> 01:12:38,560 the refineries in, in Queensland, I mean they're 1410 01:12:38,560 --> 01:12:39,800 processing a different bulk side. 1411 01:12:39,920 --> 01:12:41,960 It's a high temperature. So their costs you would expect 1412 01:12:41,960 --> 01:12:44,040 to be a little bit higher, the bulk side's high grade. 1413 01:12:44,040 --> 01:12:47,400 But you know, if you take UAL as an example, it's a reasonably 1414 01:12:47,400 --> 01:12:51,440 old refinery relative to other refineries around the place, so 1415 01:12:51,440 --> 01:12:53,120 that you'd expect the costs to be a bit higher. 1416 01:12:53,120 --> 01:12:57,320 But they still come across the same, you know, issues in terms 1417 01:12:57,320 --> 01:13:02,760 of, you know, government understanding or, you know, 1418 01:13:02,840 --> 01:13:04,680 government support of the industry. 1419 01:13:04,720 --> 01:13:09,400 It's, it lacks just as much in Queensland as it does in W. 1420 01:13:09,400 --> 01:13:10,240 I. I mean, I think if you had the 1421 01:13:10,240 --> 01:13:12,640 guys from Glencore City here have got their, they've got 1422 01:13:12,640 --> 01:13:15,880 their foot on the Arakun Bauxite export project. 1423 01:13:16,520 --> 01:13:19,520 I would say that, you know, the requirements for them to get to, 1424 01:13:19,600 --> 01:13:23,960 to permitting and licencing are just so cumbersome that it's 1425 01:13:23,960 --> 01:13:25,200 tight. You know, it's taken them years 1426 01:13:25,200 --> 01:13:27,520 to to get to where they are and there's still no guarantee that 1427 01:13:27,520 --> 01:13:31,000 project will go ahead. So, you know, they're suffering 1428 01:13:31,000 --> 01:13:34,440 similar sort of issues. I think we should paint a bit 1429 01:13:34,440 --> 01:13:37,760 more of a picture as well because I think we could 1430 01:13:37,760 --> 01:13:40,400 probably come across as being a bit biassed. 1431 01:13:40,400 --> 01:13:43,280 You know, we're a mining kind of podcast and we're, you know, 1432 01:13:43,280 --> 01:13:45,320 probably by default more pro mining. 1433 01:13:45,320 --> 01:13:48,760 Like to think we understand or want to hear both sides of the 1434 01:13:49,440 --> 01:13:53,680 the argument but there needs to be a more nuanced conversation 1435 01:13:53,680 --> 01:13:59,520 here because the ramifications of the refineries not operating 1436 01:13:59,520 --> 01:14:04,480 in WA is that in a growing aluminium market they it will 1437 01:14:04,480 --> 01:14:06,920 happen somewhere else. Around, without doubt. 1438 01:14:07,440 --> 01:14:10,120 And it will happen somewhere where there are far worse 1439 01:14:10,120 --> 01:14:12,000 environmental standards, worse emissions. 1440 01:14:12,000 --> 01:14:15,920 Well, less certainly, yeah, yeah, I mean if the refineries, 1441 01:14:16,320 --> 01:14:18,560 if it, if it, you know, you would hope it would never come 1442 01:14:18,560 --> 01:14:20,440 to that. But you know, if we lost more 1443 01:14:20,440 --> 01:14:23,680 refining capacity in Australia, the world needs it. 1444 01:14:25,120 --> 01:14:26,800 So where's it going to migrate to? 1445 01:14:27,080 --> 01:14:29,800 And you know the, the, the outstanding candidate is 1446 01:14:29,840 --> 01:14:33,000 Indonesia. So I would expect that we would 1447 01:14:33,000 --> 01:14:36,840 see even more capacity go into Indonesia than what we're 1448 01:14:36,840 --> 01:14:40,080 already forecasting should Australia's refineries, you 1449 01:14:41,160 --> 01:14:42,120 know, closed down. It's. 1450 01:14:42,640 --> 01:14:46,520 Such a, it's such a, a kind of chilling thought in some ways, 1451 01:14:46,520 --> 01:14:51,800 like we've just watched in real time in the last, call it 18 1452 01:14:51,800 --> 01:14:58,800 months, every nickel producer in Australia just like go broke or, 1453 01:14:59,080 --> 01:15:01,680 or go into care maintenance, with the exception of like 1 1454 01:15:01,680 --> 01:15:05,840 mine, an entire downstream kind of component of that industry 1455 01:15:05,840 --> 01:15:10,920 completely obliterated to. And then OK, and where's what's 1456 01:15:10,920 --> 01:15:13,200 what's happened in Indonesia's rapid? 1457 01:15:13,280 --> 01:15:18,560 Like Indonesian policy is translated into the, the, the 1458 01:15:18,600 --> 01:15:21,560 build out of the downstream. And that also facilitated, you 1459 01:15:21,560 --> 01:15:24,320 know, the the upstream expansion to feed that downstream industry 1460 01:15:24,320 --> 01:15:26,520 as well. But there's a huge caveat here 1461 01:15:26,520 --> 01:15:30,720 in that we can be more cost effective when it comes to this 1462 01:15:30,720 --> 01:15:33,560 group of commodities as as opposed to nickel where we set 1463 01:15:33,800 --> 01:15:36,520 higher on the cost curve and it wasn't economic. 1464 01:15:37,000 --> 01:15:38,520 That's true. We have the ability to be in a 1465 01:15:38,520 --> 01:15:42,120 position here where we're lower on the cost curve as well as 1466 01:15:42,400 --> 01:15:48,560 reducing a end commodity that is of lower total emissions that's. 1467 01:15:48,600 --> 01:15:49,800 Right. I mean, that's the irony here. 1468 01:15:49,800 --> 01:15:51,320 We should be building refineries, not shutting them 1469 01:15:51,320 --> 01:15:55,920 down, especially in WA, 100% that's what we should be doing. 1470 01:15:56,000 --> 01:16:00,520 And we can't have the view that if we drop the aggregate or the 1471 01:16:00,520 --> 01:16:04,000 sort of total Australian emissions that it's a good thing 1472 01:16:04,000 --> 01:16:07,520 for the world because they just go overseas and they go overseas 1473 01:16:07,520 --> 01:16:11,200 at potentially a multiple. The world will, the world needs 1474 01:16:11,200 --> 01:16:13,520 what we're producing. We don't produce it. 1475 01:16:13,520 --> 01:16:16,720 The world will produce it somewhere else without a doubt. 1476 01:16:17,720 --> 01:16:23,240 So that's, you know, it's now is a pretty important time I think 1477 01:16:23,240 --> 01:16:26,640 from a, from a policy perspective to get it right and 1478 01:16:26,640 --> 01:16:30,480 set it and let the industry, well from my perspective, let it 1479 01:16:30,480 --> 01:16:32,400 expand. This isn't just an Australian 1480 01:16:33,360 --> 01:16:34,520 problem. I think I cannot. 1481 01:16:34,600 --> 01:16:38,480 I know there's the Australian context, but yeah, I think I 1482 01:16:38,480 --> 01:16:40,840 think broadly there's, there's a, there's a lot, there's a, 1483 01:16:40,880 --> 01:16:43,240 there's a lot of this, there's a lot of this in the US There's 1484 01:16:43,240 --> 01:16:44,800 that. There's more than this, more 1485 01:16:44,800 --> 01:16:47,280 than this in the US There's, there's a lot of this in in 1486 01:16:47,280 --> 01:16:49,920 Canada too. There's like, you know, Western 1487 01:16:49,920 --> 01:16:53,000 jurisdictions over a long period of time, Australia's hopefully 1488 01:16:53,800 --> 01:16:56,880 had some sheltering for, for a while, but things are changing. 1489 01:16:56,880 --> 01:17:03,600 But there's been a, a tendency to a want to export kind of our 1490 01:17:03,600 --> 01:17:07,120 emissions and industrialization to to China and other parts, 1491 01:17:07,120 --> 01:17:12,240 just not, not in my backyard. And, and, and be a kind of a, a 1492 01:17:12,240 --> 01:17:16,400 disconnect in what actually kind of happens as a, as a result of 1493 01:17:16,400 --> 01:17:19,240 that. And, and, and then an 1494 01:17:19,240 --> 01:17:21,720 environmental, an environment of kind of policy settings that 1495 01:17:21,720 --> 01:17:26,720 makes it like challenging to encourage investment because you 1496 01:17:26,720 --> 01:17:29,200 need certainty like, like, you know, investment. 1497 01:17:29,640 --> 01:17:31,520 If there's one thing that just like scares investment away, 1498 01:17:31,520 --> 01:17:35,080 it's it's uncertainty. Uncertainty can, can manifest in 1499 01:17:35,080 --> 01:17:38,720 a lot of ways. It's like timelines that blow 1500 01:17:38,720 --> 01:17:42,480 out when they should have been certain or it's, you know, 1501 01:17:42,640 --> 01:17:45,280 regime change that where you previously had certainty, all of 1502 01:17:45,280 --> 01:17:47,640 a sudden, you know, things can get rug pulled from you. 1503 01:17:48,080 --> 01:17:52,200 Those things kind of massively undermine any any, any 1504 01:17:52,200 --> 01:17:53,640 investment. Why would you invest somewhere 1505 01:17:53,920 --> 01:17:55,000 where those are risks? Yeah. 1506 01:17:55,800 --> 01:17:58,040 It's interesting you kind of say that in the, you know, you think 1507 01:17:58,040 --> 01:18:00,240 about what's happened in this industry with respect to Guinea. 1508 01:18:00,640 --> 01:18:05,160 Yeah, right, Because now we have, now you think of it as you 1509 01:18:05,160 --> 01:18:08,240 know, China's producing 60% of the world's primary aluminium, 1510 01:18:08,840 --> 01:18:12,360 right. And so the bulk site required to 1511 01:18:12,360 --> 01:18:15,000 produce the Lumina that produces that primary aluminium is 1512 01:18:15,000 --> 01:18:19,880 probably now running about 45% of of China's needs. 1513 01:18:20,520 --> 01:18:21,880 So there's an addiction there, right. 1514 01:18:21,880 --> 01:18:26,800 But that means that it's 30% of the world's primary aluminium is 1515 01:18:26,800 --> 01:18:33,160 now reliant on one very small politically unstable W African 1516 01:18:33,160 --> 01:18:36,960 country that you look at and you think from a supply chain risk. 1517 01:18:37,400 --> 01:18:39,800 I don't think I've seen that level of risk in the aluminium 1518 01:18:39,800 --> 01:18:41,000 industry as long as I've been in it. 1519 01:18:42,280 --> 01:18:45,440 Is that and there's is the fear probably probably in China, 1520 01:18:45,440 --> 01:18:49,800 probably globally people who who require the metal it's that the 1521 01:18:49,800 --> 01:18:54,400 fear is that like it just takes one bit of political instability 1522 01:18:54,600 --> 01:18:57,360 can kind of compromise that for 12. 1523 01:18:57,360 --> 01:18:57,680 Months. Yeah. 1524 01:18:57,680 --> 01:18:59,800 Well, I think that's why, you know, you're starting to get 1525 01:18:59,800 --> 01:19:01,960 signals out of China that they should be diversifying more, you 1526 01:19:02,080 --> 01:19:04,280 know, in terms of their supply. But where? 1527 01:19:05,240 --> 01:19:06,520 Where? Where do you get it from? 1528 01:19:06,960 --> 01:19:08,520 Yeah. That's the problem it. 1529 01:19:08,800 --> 01:19:13,920 It could get to a a risky kind of point where a small group can 1530 01:19:13,920 --> 01:19:17,960 have control in a country and and hold a a world at. 1531 01:19:18,480 --> 01:19:22,400 And industry. Is to to ransom in in a way sort 1532 01:19:22,400 --> 01:19:25,680 of knock on wood that doesn't kind of happen, but it's a risk 1533 01:19:25,680 --> 01:19:28,080 when you have such concentrated supply. 1534 01:19:28,400 --> 01:19:29,920 That's right. I mean, there's a lot of talk in 1535 01:19:29,920 --> 01:19:33,040 the industry that at some point thinking in government will, you 1536 01:19:33,080 --> 01:19:36,000 know, increase the royalty or do something different because they 1537 01:19:36,000 --> 01:19:38,560 do have such a such a huge control. 1538 01:19:38,840 --> 01:19:41,200 But I think right now the lever that they're looking to pull is 1539 01:19:41,200 --> 01:19:44,840 to, you know, is to force companies to build refineries, 1540 01:19:45,440 --> 01:19:47,840 you know, in in country. And that to me, like I said, I 1541 01:19:47,840 --> 01:19:51,400 mean, I, yeah, it kind of makes sense, but you know, get in the 1542 01:19:51,400 --> 01:19:54,960 queue, get when your, your time is not here yet, but your time 1543 01:19:54,960 --> 01:19:58,120 is coming. And so prepare yourself for 1544 01:19:58,120 --> 01:20:00,240 that. But it's true, you know, there, 1545 01:20:00,240 --> 01:20:04,200 there is a, there is always the, the risk that they can, you 1546 01:20:04,200 --> 01:20:06,760 know, they can have more of an influence on price that they 1547 01:20:06,760 --> 01:20:09,360 have at the moment. That there's a there's a 1548 01:20:09,360 --> 01:20:13,600 positive to that as well with SIM Andu going ahead in in 1549 01:20:13,600 --> 01:20:17,560 Guinea and you know, Rio Tinto being in and interest there as 1550 01:20:17,560 --> 01:20:20,680 well as I'm sure there's some overlap with Chinese parties as 1551 01:20:20,680 --> 01:20:22,240 well. They can sort of say it. 1552 01:20:23,440 --> 01:20:26,400 They can say we're not going to put in all this amount of money 1553 01:20:26,400 --> 01:20:29,440 if you're going to muck around with other part. 1554 01:20:29,440 --> 01:20:32,040 I mean, there's a yeah, something sort of channel to 1555 01:20:32,040 --> 01:20:36,160 think about down there is right? But usually complex and 1556 01:20:36,160 --> 01:20:39,120 component of the whole Guinea story, yeah, is what's happening 1557 01:20:39,120 --> 01:20:41,320 with Simeon do and the role that, you know, Chinese 1558 01:20:41,320 --> 01:20:43,120 companies are playing in that. How do you say that? 1559 01:20:44,160 --> 01:20:47,280 I see see men do I mean, it's going ahead, right. 1560 01:20:47,520 --> 01:20:50,440 It's you know, we get updates regularly because we got a we 1561 01:20:50,440 --> 01:20:54,840 got an office in Guinea. So you know, you see it coming 1562 01:20:55,360 --> 01:21:01,480 and it's high grade, high grade iron ore and it will, it will 1563 01:21:01,480 --> 01:21:04,480 come out in some fairly substantial volumes over time. 1564 01:21:05,160 --> 01:21:08,520 And you know, we're kind of cost curve fundamentalists. 1565 01:21:08,520 --> 01:21:11,160 So you look and think just displaces whatever sitting at 1566 01:21:11,160 --> 01:21:15,000 the top of the curve goes, you know, whether it's 100 million 1567 01:21:15,000 --> 01:21:17,840 tonnes or whatever the number is, but. 180 is what we've been 1568 01:21:17,840 --> 01:21:22,120 told is the that the high cost. Is the tough it's target volume. 1569 01:21:22,160 --> 01:21:25,320 It's well the, the I know cost curve is, is step, but you've 1570 01:21:25,320 --> 01:21:28,280 got the high cost miners that kind of keep, keep price where 1571 01:21:28,360 --> 01:21:30,080 has been for a good period of time. 1572 01:21:30,080 --> 01:21:32,640 But that that high cost proportion is 180 million tonnes 1573 01:21:32,640 --> 01:21:34,880 worth. Simon do maybe by the end of the 1574 01:21:34,880 --> 01:21:39,520 decade could be 120. Yeah, that's something I don't 1575 01:21:39,520 --> 01:21:41,760 know if you believe that. I think they could ramp it as 1576 01:21:41,760 --> 01:21:43,960 fast as they they possibly. Could well I think what they've 1577 01:21:43,960 --> 01:21:47,040 demonstrated with bauxite is that they can do it yeah. 1578 01:21:47,360 --> 01:21:50,360 So I have no doubt that, you know, whatever the number is 1579 01:21:50,360 --> 01:21:51,440 that they're going to target that they'll. 1580 01:21:51,680 --> 01:21:53,600 I'll get there. The Excuse me. 1581 01:21:53,600 --> 01:21:56,360 The thing about cement do is though it is a long way yeah. 1582 01:21:56,760 --> 01:22:00,440 So, you know it's like 600 and I don't know 3600 and 36140 1583 01:22:00,440 --> 01:22:02,240 kilometres. Then you've got a trend. 1584 01:22:02,240 --> 01:22:05,200 I can't remember whether they're translating or not, but on our 1585 01:22:05,200 --> 01:22:09,320 numbers I think we did. It was about maybe 40 bucks if I 1586 01:22:09,320 --> 01:22:13,720 be, so it's 70. Ish. 1587 01:22:14,080 --> 01:22:17,320 The grade landed grade, the grade that's right via you back 1588 01:22:17,320 --> 01:22:19,560 to the value in use, right? What, what impact that has? 1589 01:22:19,560 --> 01:22:23,520 That's right. And then for the low, I think 1590 01:22:23,520 --> 01:22:25,800 about the low cost producers as well. 1591 01:22:25,800 --> 01:22:29,320 It's like you don't just get punished on a proportionate 1592 01:22:29,320 --> 01:22:32,480 basis to your grade, your realisations disproportionately 1593 01:22:32,480 --> 01:22:35,560 get punished. Yeah, yeah. 1594 01:22:36,240 --> 01:22:39,240 But thankfully that's not box I'm illuminated just yet. 1595 01:22:40,760 --> 01:22:43,560 Not yet, yeah. What do you think the industry 1596 01:22:43,600 --> 01:22:45,960 will look like in in, you know, I mean, you've been doing this. 1597 01:22:46,800 --> 01:22:49,480 Yeah, for too long, 30 years, I'm the only one left in the 1598 01:22:49,560 --> 01:22:51,640 everybody else's. You know, natural nutrition has 1599 01:22:51,640 --> 01:22:54,560 taken everybody else except me. 30 years from now, what does it 1600 01:22:54,560 --> 01:22:57,720 look like and who are The Who are The Who are the big winners 1601 01:22:57,720 --> 01:23:02,480 and who are the big losers? Quite a hell of a question from 1602 01:23:02,480 --> 01:23:04,080 an aluminium perspective, I think. 1603 01:23:05,360 --> 01:23:11,640 I think China solves it's, it's it's a carbon issue for for the 1604 01:23:11,640 --> 01:23:14,040 production of electrolytic. Yeah, aluminium. 1605 01:23:14,240 --> 01:23:18,320 Recycling and. Recycling renewables, nuclear, 1606 01:23:18,320 --> 01:23:20,480 whatever it is that they, they will, they will solve the 1607 01:23:20,480 --> 01:23:23,360 problem and then we'll see the, you know, the, the, the 1608 01:23:23,400 --> 01:23:25,520 footprint, the carbon footprint for the aluminium industry will 1609 01:23:25,520 --> 01:23:27,200 plummet as a result of what they I. 1610 01:23:27,360 --> 01:23:29,040 Mean that's the answer in the room we didn't even talk about 1611 01:23:29,040 --> 01:23:33,840 today was the the the the 6% of carbon emissions come from come 1612 01:23:33,840 --> 01:23:35,600 from the refining. Of smelting. 1613 01:23:35,760 --> 01:23:37,480 Smelting. Yeah, Yeah, Yeah, that's right. 1614 01:23:37,600 --> 01:23:39,200 Yeah. So, you know, China has to 1615 01:23:39,200 --> 01:23:41,920 address that. They are at the moment, but I 1616 01:23:41,920 --> 01:23:44,760 think they'll take some some pretty big steps in the future 1617 01:23:44,800 --> 01:23:48,680 to reduce, you know, the carbon footprint for their own primary 1618 01:23:48,680 --> 01:23:51,520 aluminium. So I think they I think in that 1619 01:23:51,520 --> 01:23:53,120 sense they they, they kind of win. 1620 01:23:53,800 --> 01:23:57,440 But I think you also see other countries where you've got 1621 01:23:58,440 --> 01:24:01,840 availability of low cost energy, you see smelters, you'll see 1622 01:24:01,840 --> 01:24:04,240 more smelters start to, to pop up. 1623 01:24:04,840 --> 01:24:07,600 And whether that's the Middle East, you know, or you know, 1624 01:24:07,600 --> 01:24:10,600 some hydro around Southeast Asia or some other parts of the 1625 01:24:10,600 --> 01:24:14,760 world, I think they, I think they start to, to win a bit 1626 01:24:14,760 --> 01:24:16,760 more. I'd love to be able to say that 1627 01:24:16,760 --> 01:24:21,400 we Australia wins as well. We build more refineries and we, 1628 01:24:21,520 --> 01:24:24,480 you know, we, we have more refineries sitting in Q1 because 1629 01:24:24,480 --> 01:24:27,000 we have the, we have the raw material to do it. 1630 01:24:27,640 --> 01:24:29,840 We have the capability as a, as a country to do it. 1631 01:24:29,840 --> 01:24:33,520 So you know, you want that to happen, but whether it happens 1632 01:24:33,520 --> 01:24:37,000 or not, you know, we'll see. But the other big change will be 1633 01:24:37,000 --> 01:24:40,000 recycle. See much, much more recycle come 1634 01:24:40,000 --> 01:24:42,040 back into the into the aluminium world. 1635 01:24:42,200 --> 01:24:44,520 And the efficiency get better that. 1636 01:24:44,600 --> 01:24:46,680 Yeah. Well, the green aluminium, you 1637 01:24:47,240 --> 01:24:51,360 know, whatever that means, you know, you'll just see the demand 1638 01:24:51,360 --> 01:24:54,480 for that increase more and more and that will pull in more and 1639 01:24:54,480 --> 01:24:56,720 more. Recycle, recycling systems will 1640 01:24:57,200 --> 01:24:59,080 improve. Recycling capability will 1641 01:24:59,320 --> 01:25:01,480 improve. Do you think it'll be like a, a 1642 01:25:02,440 --> 01:25:06,880 market that will like generally be balanced most of the time 1643 01:25:07,360 --> 01:25:10,000 because there are these like large long life reserves that 1644 01:25:10,000 --> 01:25:12,680 can be tapped into, but we'll just have have intermittent 1645 01:25:12,680 --> 01:25:15,160 periods of being like, you know, tremendously imbalanced and 1646 01:25:15,280 --> 01:25:17,560 price. Yeah, I think that's the, I mean 1647 01:25:17,560 --> 01:25:19,960 if you look at the history of the industry, I mean it is a 1648 01:25:19,960 --> 01:25:22,760 capital intensive industry, right, smelting, refining and so 1649 01:25:22,760 --> 01:25:24,760 forth. And you know, if you look at the 1650 01:25:24,760 --> 01:25:28,880 sort of the supply demand balance, the history of supply 1651 01:25:28,880 --> 01:25:31,760 demand balance, it doesn't really change that much. 1652 01:25:31,840 --> 01:25:33,840 You guys are too young to remember what happened in the 1653 01:25:33,840 --> 01:25:37,840 90s with the, with the, the, have you ever heard of the MOU 1654 01:25:37,840 --> 01:25:41,720 in the aluminium industry? The MOU was when, when the, when 1655 01:25:41,880 --> 01:25:46,000 Soviet Union collapsed primary aluminium flooded into the, into 1656 01:25:46,000 --> 01:25:49,080 the rest of the world. And so the, the aluminium 1657 01:25:49,080 --> 01:25:51,480 producers at the time, the rest of what they had to get together 1658 01:25:52,240 --> 01:25:55,920 and, and, and sign what was called an MOU to cut their 1659 01:25:55,920 --> 01:25:59,520 production to, to compensate for the amount of primary element 1660 01:25:59,520 --> 01:26:01,600 that was coming in and, and the industry as a whole. 1661 01:26:02,160 --> 01:26:04,320 I mean, they did it. Yeah. 1662 01:26:04,320 --> 01:26:06,160 Effectively, all of the big producers at the time got 1663 01:26:06,160 --> 01:26:09,480 together and said, OK, we're going to for our own survival, 1664 01:26:09,480 --> 01:26:11,920 we have to have to make some cuts. 1665 01:26:11,920 --> 01:26:13,640 Curtailment curtail behaviour in some. 1666 01:26:13,800 --> 01:26:16,920 Ways an OPEC style thing but more for survival then for more. 1667 01:26:16,960 --> 01:26:18,200 Amazing survival. That's right. 1668 01:26:18,640 --> 01:26:20,640 That's right. And they kind of weathered that 1669 01:26:20,640 --> 01:26:24,280 storm, but that's the only, you know, other than that, the 1670 01:26:24,280 --> 01:26:26,920 market sort of, you know, goes in and out of balance. 1671 01:26:26,920 --> 01:26:30,120 You might see some refining capacity come out somewhere or 1672 01:26:30,120 --> 01:26:32,840 some smelting and, and things might go out of balance for a 1673 01:26:32,840 --> 01:26:34,960 while. But the industry tends to work 1674 01:26:35,320 --> 01:26:39,560 together, you know, to, to to sort of compensate if that 1675 01:26:39,560 --> 01:26:42,520 happens. In 2018, the largest alumina 1676 01:26:42,520 --> 01:26:45,760 refinery outside of China, which is any Norte in Brazil, was 1677 01:26:45,760 --> 01:26:47,600 forced by the Brazilian government to cut half its 1678 01:26:47,600 --> 01:26:49,640 capacity for a whole bunch of reasons. 1679 01:26:50,880 --> 01:26:54,560 And so the alumina price, you know, sort of up to sort of six, 1680 01:26:54,560 --> 01:26:57,840 $700.00 a tonne. And so there were a lot of 1681 01:26:57,840 --> 01:27:01,520 smelters that were short aluminium all of a sudden. 1682 01:27:01,720 --> 01:27:06,240 So the industry kind of came together to make sure that the 1683 01:27:06,240 --> 01:27:08,760 smelters that needed the aluminium got the aluminium 1684 01:27:09,320 --> 01:27:12,280 rather than force them to close because that's a disaster in the 1685 01:27:12,280 --> 01:27:15,240 army industry, right, if the force a smelter to close. 1686 01:27:15,800 --> 01:27:18,880 So the point is that it's, you know, it's more or less balanced 1687 01:27:19,240 --> 01:27:22,120 when it gets out of balance, the industry tends to kind of work 1688 01:27:22,120 --> 01:27:25,960 together to, to make sure that nobody kind of really that you 1689 01:27:25,960 --> 01:27:29,120 don't lose anybody because it's a, it's a big deal. 1690 01:27:29,600 --> 01:27:33,200 It kind of, I can see that continuing to be the case that 1691 01:27:33,200 --> 01:27:34,760 things are more or less in balance. 1692 01:27:36,000 --> 01:27:38,520 You know, when it comes to Illumina, the way that the world 1693 01:27:38,520 --> 01:27:41,520 has kind of worked over the past, I don't know, 10-15 years 1694 01:27:41,520 --> 01:27:44,400 or so, is that China's kind of acted as a bit of a sponge. 1695 01:27:44,400 --> 01:27:48,360 If there's been surplus alumina, China tends to kind of soak it 1696 01:27:48,360 --> 01:27:51,600 up and that keeps things in balance as well. 1697 01:27:52,080 --> 01:27:53,960 So from that perspective, the industry kind of works pretty 1698 01:27:53,960 --> 01:27:57,600 well together and you would hope that that would continue to be 1699 01:27:57,600 --> 01:27:59,520 the case, you know, for the next 1020 years or so. 1700 01:28:01,240 --> 01:28:03,000 Let's hope so. Yeah, let's hope so. 1701 01:28:03,520 --> 01:28:06,960 We'll see. There's one last like I don't 1702 01:28:06,960 --> 01:28:11,160 even know if it's a derivative of the complex, but it's it's 1703 01:28:11,160 --> 01:28:13,920 one of those sort of actually made the critical minerals list 1704 01:28:13,920 --> 01:28:17,360 before alumina bauxite or aluminium ever did high purity 1705 01:28:17,360 --> 01:28:20,760 alumina. What should we, what should we 1706 01:28:20,760 --> 01:28:27,600 think of that? OK, the way to think about high 1707 01:28:27,600 --> 01:28:29,560 purity alumina is that the world that that. 1708 01:28:29,960 --> 01:28:33,400 I mean, first of all, you have to define high purity alumina. 1709 01:28:33,560 --> 01:28:34,080 Yeah. How? 1710 01:28:34,160 --> 01:28:35,560 Many NS. How many NS? 1711 01:28:35,560 --> 01:28:38,640 That's right. And so we would say you start at 1712 01:28:38,640 --> 01:28:41,080 four. Yeah, it's 4 N and above. 1713 01:28:41,080 --> 01:28:44,120 That's what we would call hyper alumina. 3 N yeah, that's 1714 01:28:44,200 --> 01:28:47,320 industrial mineral. The N is how many 99 point? 1715 01:28:47,320 --> 01:28:52,400 99.99 is 3 NS and so forth. So if you look at just the high 1716 01:28:52,400 --> 01:28:59,880 purity market today, including China, I think it is one large 1717 01:28:59,880 --> 01:29:03,360 boatload of alumina. Oh, it's about 60,000 tonnes, 1718 01:29:03,360 --> 01:29:05,160 5560, something like that, right. 1719 01:29:05,640 --> 01:29:10,880 But the thing about, about HPR high purity alumina is that 1720 01:29:12,440 --> 01:29:15,520 there's so many different applications for, for hyperity 1721 01:29:15,520 --> 01:29:20,480 alumina, whether it's, you know, sapphire for, for LE DS or, or, 1722 01:29:20,560 --> 01:29:22,960 or, or polishing of semiconductor, you know, 1723 01:29:22,960 --> 01:29:25,160 whatever it is, there's lots of, and, and every one of them has a 1724 01:29:25,160 --> 01:29:27,960 very specific requirement of the HPA. 1725 01:29:28,320 --> 01:29:30,800 So it's not as if, you know, you can't think of it as a, as a 1726 01:29:30,800 --> 01:29:35,800 commodity or like a, there's this thing called 4N or 4N plus 1727 01:29:35,800 --> 01:29:37,280 alumina and that this is what it looks like. 1728 01:29:37,280 --> 01:29:39,720 It's just absolutely not the way the market works. 1729 01:29:39,920 --> 01:29:43,360 It's more like a pharmaceutical product, that's the way to think 1730 01:29:43,360 --> 01:29:45,360 about it rather than like a commodity, you've got to think 1731 01:29:45,360 --> 01:29:48,880 about it like a pharmaceutical. And so it's almost produced in 1732 01:29:48,880 --> 01:29:51,800 batches for particular applications and those 1733 01:29:51,800 --> 01:29:53,720 applications are changing rapidly. 1734 01:29:54,240 --> 01:29:58,040 So therefore the requirements of the HPA are changing rapidly as 1735 01:29:58,040 --> 01:30:00,360 well. So you've got to kind of get 1736 01:30:00,360 --> 01:30:03,240 yourself as far away from thinking sort of commodity and 1737 01:30:03,560 --> 01:30:06,280 cost curves and marginal time as you can possibly get, right? 1738 01:30:06,720 --> 01:30:08,800 Gotcha. And think about it in those in 1739 01:30:08,800 --> 01:30:11,200 terms of those very specific applications and what they're 1740 01:30:11,200 --> 01:30:14,600 prepared to pay for it. Very specialised but potentially 1741 01:30:14,600 --> 01:30:16,560 a high margin business if you can do it well. 1742 01:30:17,080 --> 01:30:19,360 Well, not potentially, I call it a high margin business now. 1743 01:30:19,680 --> 01:30:23,560 Yeah, if you can do it, well, if you can provide, if you can, if 1744 01:30:23,560 --> 01:30:25,760 your technology, because it's about technology, right. 1745 01:30:26,120 --> 01:30:29,440 Your technology can produce the, the requirement for that 1746 01:30:29,440 --> 01:30:32,640 particular application, whether it's a polishing, you know, 1747 01:30:32,640 --> 01:30:35,320 application or whether you're growing the sapphire for the LED 1748 01:30:35,440 --> 01:30:39,720 or you know, whatever it is. Then if so long as you can, you 1749 01:30:39,720 --> 01:30:42,400 can meet that specification. And by the way, you've got to 1750 01:30:42,400 --> 01:30:45,680 become qualified to to supply that market and the 1751 01:30:45,680 --> 01:30:48,920 qualification process can take you a year, right. 1752 01:30:48,920 --> 01:30:55,200 So it's a, it's a very, very specific market that you know 1753 01:30:55,200 --> 01:30:58,520 that like I say is is far away from smelter grade alumina as 1754 01:30:58,520 --> 01:30:59,680 you can. And then your. 1755 01:30:59,720 --> 01:31:03,520 Best businesses are someone not much smarter than me. 1756 01:31:03,520 --> 01:31:06,600 So the best types of businesses are when you're a small but 1757 01:31:06,600 --> 01:31:12,200 important part imperative part of a big inexpensive process. 1758 01:31:12,280 --> 01:31:13,440 So you have phenomenal price well. 1759 01:31:13,720 --> 01:31:15,960 Hopefully. Semiconductors, yeah, you know, 1760 01:31:15,960 --> 01:31:18,840 or, or LEDs for that matter. So pricing power is something 1761 01:31:18,840 --> 01:31:21,960 that most commodity producers don't have, you know what I 1762 01:31:22,080 --> 01:31:23,520 mean? Like, like, I mean that's the 1763 01:31:23,520 --> 01:31:26,440 definition of a, of a commodity in that sense that you, you 1764 01:31:26,440 --> 01:31:28,360 know, you've got a terminal market, yeah. 1765 01:31:28,360 --> 01:31:30,320 And that you, you know, you can't control the price. 1766 01:31:30,320 --> 01:31:33,800 You it's just all about where you sit on the on the curve, on 1767 01:31:33,800 --> 01:31:36,560 the cost curve. HPA completely. 1768 01:31:36,640 --> 01:31:40,440 Yeah, that's right. I mean, I like that, that 1769 01:31:40,440 --> 01:31:43,520 analogy. That's, that's that's where HPA 1770 01:31:43,560 --> 01:31:45,440 is today, I think. Yeah. 1771 01:31:46,080 --> 01:31:47,720 That's riveting. What? 1772 01:31:48,280 --> 01:31:53,240 Is there anything you want to, you know, leave our audience 1773 01:31:53,240 --> 01:31:57,840 with or thinking about Alan? I mean, yeah, what, what, what, 1774 01:31:57,840 --> 01:32:01,920 what sort of, you know, views haven't we traversed today that 1775 01:32:01,920 --> 01:32:04,880 you're kind of, you think would be kind of worth, worth hearing. 1776 01:32:04,960 --> 01:32:08,600 Although we haven't traversed. Yeah, well, that's a good 1777 01:32:08,600 --> 01:32:11,600 question. I think Jesus were covered a 1778 01:32:11,600 --> 01:32:14,000 lot. Yeah, I'd like to bring you back 1779 01:32:14,000 --> 01:32:18,600 from manganese and Tungsten and. Yeah, and every other yeah Mag 1780 01:32:18,800 --> 01:32:20,000 I've I've. Magnesium. 1781 01:32:20,120 --> 01:32:24,040 Magnesium is I'll I'll leave you this to think about right just 1782 01:32:24,040 --> 01:32:27,880 for a magnesium this can right every alloy like the alloy of 1783 01:32:27,880 --> 01:32:30,840 the body, the alloy of the top and the alloy of the tab are all 1784 01:32:30,840 --> 01:32:34,600 different, but every one of them contains magnesium, right. 1785 01:32:35,200 --> 01:32:38,680 So the biggest use of magnesium is the alloy in aluminium Yeah. 1786 01:32:39,200 --> 01:32:44,000 So if you can't get the mag, can't produce the alloys that 1787 01:32:44,000 --> 01:32:46,560 are required to make all of these sorts of things, window 1788 01:32:46,560 --> 01:32:48,720 frames or you know what, all the stuff around here, that's all 1789 01:32:48,720 --> 01:32:52,240 aluminium, right? China produces today somewhere 1790 01:32:52,240 --> 01:32:54,760 between 85 and 90% of the world's primary magnesium. 1791 01:32:55,160 --> 01:32:59,560 Seriously. That's something to think about, 1792 01:32:59,600 --> 01:33:01,280 right? You talk about critical minerals 1793 01:33:01,280 --> 01:33:02,920 and so forth. I didn't know that. 1794 01:33:03,160 --> 01:33:05,840 It's quite amazing. That's going to give us a rabbit 1795 01:33:05,840 --> 01:33:07,080 hole to to go. Yeah. 1796 01:33:07,080 --> 01:33:09,480 Well, it's an interesting one to, to, to dive down that. 1797 01:33:09,720 --> 01:33:13,200 I mean, so I was going to say from a like from a, from a, from 1798 01:33:13,200 --> 01:33:16,840 an aluminium perspective, I think, you know, some takeaways 1799 01:33:16,840 --> 01:33:19,000 here that I think people don't really understand all that well. 1800 01:33:19,000 --> 01:33:22,440 It's just the versatility of the, of the, of the, the metal 1801 01:33:22,440 --> 01:33:26,120 to start with right at, at the one end, but at the other end, 1802 01:33:26,320 --> 01:33:29,160 this massive concentration of where the raw material now comes 1803 01:33:29,160 --> 01:33:32,720 from for the world. You know, it's a an interesting 1804 01:33:33,480 --> 01:33:37,240 situation right now. Amazing could be set of many. 1805 01:33:38,120 --> 01:33:41,720 Many medals as well. Yeah, one last. 1806 01:33:41,720 --> 01:33:43,160 One hello. Sorry, go. 1807 01:33:44,680 --> 01:33:48,360 For it keep, I'll keep going. I want, I just want to include 1808 01:33:48,360 --> 01:33:50,120 this misconception. Sure. 1809 01:33:50,440 --> 01:33:53,760 We had a bit of a chin wag before we recorded you. 1810 01:33:54,880 --> 01:33:59,280 I, I'd spoken to you that I'd heard that, you know, aluminium, 1811 01:33:59,280 --> 01:34:02,160 if you own Alcoa, you kind of get exposure to Freeport or vice 1812 01:34:02,160 --> 01:34:05,400 versa because in some ways these are substitutable metals. 1813 01:34:05,400 --> 01:34:08,200 They're both pureplay and they're hyper correlated kind of 1814 01:34:08,200 --> 01:34:10,640 stock. So if you, if you're exposed to 1815 01:34:10,640 --> 01:34:13,520 copy, you're exposed to Ali because you know, heck, at some 1816 01:34:13,520 --> 01:34:16,000 point these markets are very substitutable and you took issue 1817 01:34:16,000 --> 01:34:17,680 with that immediately. I did. 1818 01:34:18,400 --> 01:34:22,200 I'm not a big fan of the, of the of the argument of substitution. 1819 01:34:22,720 --> 01:34:27,040 And in, in some respects it kind of comes back to to, you know, 1820 01:34:27,040 --> 01:34:30,000 we were talking about mag before as well, because magnesium is 1821 01:34:30,000 --> 01:34:33,720 substitutable aluminium in die casting and it's an easy 1822 01:34:33,720 --> 01:34:35,320 substitution. You know, if you compare it 1823 01:34:35,320 --> 01:34:39,400 with, you know, substitution of, of aluminium for copper, for 1824 01:34:39,400 --> 01:34:43,240 example, it's, it's complicated. It's not just, you know, you 1825 01:34:43,240 --> 01:34:47,200 look at the ratio of the prices and you know, get up the next 1826 01:34:47,200 --> 01:34:49,200 day and say, well, they look at the Ali price, look at the 1827 01:34:49,240 --> 01:34:53,320 copper price. I'm going to switch it just it 1828 01:34:53,320 --> 01:34:55,200 doesn't happen that way. And you think about the 1829 01:34:55,200 --> 01:34:58,600 applications that the copper is being used in, for example. 1830 01:34:59,040 --> 01:35:01,800 And if it's a if it's a, a motor, like if it's a wound 1831 01:35:01,800 --> 01:35:05,120 motor or whatever it is then. And if it's sitting in a car, an 1832 01:35:05,120 --> 01:35:08,640 EV or you know, or whatever, then that that car has been 1833 01:35:08,640 --> 01:35:14,560 through a process to have it, you know, legally on the road. 1834 01:35:15,280 --> 01:35:18,240 That process has to be replicated if you're going to 1835 01:35:18,240 --> 01:35:22,960 swap out of copper and swap into into aluminium, for example, not 1836 01:35:22,960 --> 01:35:25,400 only have you got a whole bunch of materials issues you're going 1837 01:35:25,400 --> 01:35:27,840 to have to deal with just in the the differences in weights and 1838 01:35:27,920 --> 01:35:29,600 you know, and conductivity and so forth. 1839 01:35:30,040 --> 01:35:32,800 Then you have to go through the whole compliance, you know, 1840 01:35:33,400 --> 01:35:36,720 issue as well. So to say that, you know, look 1841 01:35:36,720 --> 01:35:39,960 at prices and you know, get to certain ratios and you kind of 1842 01:35:39,960 --> 01:35:41,800 flip out of one, I just think is a nonsense. 1843 01:35:42,160 --> 01:35:44,000 I think it takes some applications. 1844 01:35:44,000 --> 01:35:47,720 I would agree that you know that that that are not non critical 1845 01:35:47,720 --> 01:35:49,600 kind of applications. Maybe you might see a bit of 1846 01:35:49,600 --> 01:35:54,680 substitution, but in big, you know, big chunky kind of uses 1847 01:35:54,680 --> 01:35:59,640 for those metals, substitution takes a lot of time and I just I 1848 01:35:59,680 --> 01:36:03,200 don't see it happening. I also sort of take issue with 1849 01:36:03,200 --> 01:36:06,200 the fact that, you know, that that copper prices might move, 1850 01:36:07,280 --> 01:36:10,400 you know, relative to alley prices, for example. 1851 01:36:10,400 --> 01:36:11,920 You know, one moves without the other. 1852 01:36:12,000 --> 01:36:15,000 So you know what what kind of what kind of drives that? 1853 01:36:15,000 --> 01:36:18,320 Why would one move? They tend to move in some 1854 01:36:18,520 --> 01:36:22,400 respect together, not, not, you know, not a strong correlation, 1855 01:36:22,400 --> 01:36:25,000 but they'll move. What's affecting one often 1856 01:36:25,000 --> 01:36:28,200 affects the other. So, you know, I just I, I, I 1857 01:36:28,200 --> 01:36:31,640 can't see it. I mentioned mag because, you 1858 01:36:31,640 --> 01:36:35,680 know, die casting is something that you can switch from ally to 1859 01:36:35,680 --> 01:36:38,840 mag. You know, I want to say 1860 01:36:38,840 --> 01:36:42,640 reasonably hassle free, but if a die cast ever heard me say that 1861 01:36:42,640 --> 01:36:45,960 they would shoot me. More hassle free than switching 1862 01:36:45,960 --> 01:36:47,120 for it. That's right. 1863 01:36:47,120 --> 01:36:50,160 It's more hassle free and even they find it difficult to 1864 01:36:50,160 --> 01:36:51,960 because they've got to retool, they've got to change their 1865 01:36:51,960 --> 01:36:54,000 furnace, they've got to change everything over to another metal 1866 01:36:54,000 --> 01:36:58,040 that, you know, in six months or a year's time it might reverse. 1867 01:36:58,120 --> 01:36:59,920 What's the price? So you have to have a, you know, 1868 01:36:59,920 --> 01:37:02,760 you have to have a long term view that Ali price is going to 1869 01:37:02,760 --> 01:37:05,400 be significantly lower than copper for the next decade 1870 01:37:05,920 --> 01:37:09,520 before you seriously consider, you know, you know, switching 1871 01:37:09,520 --> 01:37:13,080 some, you know, high volume critical kind of applications. 1872 01:37:13,800 --> 01:37:16,160 Supply chains don't turn quickly these processes. 1873 01:37:16,320 --> 01:37:18,400 Change long time that that's right. 1874 01:37:18,520 --> 01:37:21,080 So you know, I I do take issue a bit with that. 1875 01:37:21,120 --> 01:37:24,160 So yeah. Yeah, this has been amazing. 1876 01:37:24,560 --> 01:37:26,560 How long have we been going for? No idea. 1877 01:37:26,640 --> 01:37:29,160 I've learned. I've learned a complete 1878 01:37:29,160 --> 01:37:32,040 boatload. And I'm just on boatload. 1879 01:37:32,040 --> 01:37:35,760 Let me say one more thing. Boatload's interesting. 1880 01:37:36,040 --> 01:37:37,880 You know, we're talking about the different types of bauxite, 1881 01:37:37,880 --> 01:37:38,280 right? Yeah. 1882 01:37:38,520 --> 01:37:41,160 I just, I just, I had this thought this morning that 1883 01:37:41,680 --> 01:37:44,200 there's there's a vessel you should look up. 1884 01:37:44,200 --> 01:37:46,080 It's called the the the bulk Jupiter. 1885 01:37:46,080 --> 01:37:47,840 Do you know what liquefaction is? 1886 01:37:47,880 --> 01:37:50,680 No. So liquefaction happens when 1887 01:37:50,680 --> 01:37:53,640 you've got a solid, a solid material that's got maybe a high 1888 01:37:54,320 --> 01:37:58,280 moisture content that when you start to move it, it becomes a 1889 01:37:58,280 --> 01:37:59,640 liquid. Yeah, yeah. 1890 01:37:59,800 --> 01:38:03,840 OK, So that's liquefaction and at least two bauxite vessels 1891 01:38:03,880 --> 01:38:06,520 have sunk and I think they were coming from Malaysia. 1892 01:38:06,520 --> 01:38:07,920 The bulk Jupiter was one of them, right? 1893 01:38:08,400 --> 01:38:11,440 Because it, you know, you hit some rough sea and the bulks 1894 01:38:11,440 --> 01:38:14,040 like because the, the, the moisture content of the bauxite 1895 01:38:14,040 --> 01:38:19,160 was greater than 20%. So you know, this vessel moving 1896 01:38:19,160 --> 01:38:23,520 on the ocean liquefied the cargo, so changing from solid to 1897 01:38:23,520 --> 01:38:25,160 liquid, right? And so once that happens, you've 1898 01:38:25,160 --> 01:38:27,960 lost control. The vessel, it sinks. 1899 01:38:27,960 --> 01:38:32,000 So the weight was just. It was moving, sorry, it was 1900 01:38:32,000 --> 01:38:35,160 moving with the, you know, as the, as the mess vessel moved in 1901 01:38:35,200 --> 01:38:37,360 on the ocean and it and it tipped. 1902 01:38:38,040 --> 01:38:41,040 But it comes back to this, you know, this whole idea of books 1903 01:38:41,040 --> 01:38:42,960 and we're sort of where we started, right, That, you know, 1904 01:38:42,960 --> 01:38:45,880 there's bauxite and there's bauxite, there's bauxite, but 1905 01:38:45,880 --> 01:38:48,080 you know, you pull it out of the ground as a like, as a, you 1906 01:38:48,080 --> 01:38:51,720 know, just ESO onto a boat. It's got 20% moisture. 1907 01:38:51,720 --> 01:38:54,440 You know you're out and seeing, you know the bloody thing sunk 1908 01:38:54,440 --> 01:38:56,640 because it because the cargo liquefied. 1909 01:38:56,640 --> 01:38:58,280 That's incredible. Yeah, it's amazing. 1910 01:38:58,840 --> 01:39:02,040 Anyway, there it is guys. Thank you. 1911 01:39:02,080 --> 01:39:04,200 I hope that's been of some value. 1912 01:39:04,440 --> 01:39:06,560 This has been a phenomenal. Value to you. 1913 01:39:07,720 --> 01:39:11,000 Don't look, I mean I've got 2 cans of people's hairs on I 1914 01:39:11,000 --> 01:39:13,640 seriously can't go wrong. I mean, you had me at free Beer 1915 01:39:13,640 --> 01:39:16,560 by. I'm very much looking forward to 1916 01:39:16,560 --> 01:39:20,400 doing MAG and every other. Yeah, Tungsten and Molly in a 1917 01:39:20,400 --> 01:39:22,400 few of them. Yeah, can't wait. 1918 01:39:22,720 --> 01:39:23,640 Thank you so much for your. Time. 1919 01:39:23,680 --> 01:39:26,080 It's a pleasure. Good stuff, boys, Jay. 1920 01:39:26,160 --> 01:39:28,880 They'll go to the the Interview marathons these days. 1921 01:39:28,880 --> 01:39:31,840 But tell you what, you probably could have gone for another hour 1922 01:39:31,840 --> 01:39:33,640 if you want. Part of me feels bad that we're 1923 01:39:33,640 --> 01:39:36,760 taking so much of their time, but it's I want them to go so 1924 01:39:36,760 --> 01:39:38,440 good. I learnt so much in that 1925 01:39:38,440 --> 01:39:40,640 discussion. So it's, yeah, a real, real 1926 01:39:40,640 --> 01:39:42,320 treat to share that one with the money miners. 1927 01:39:42,320 --> 01:39:45,120 JD, when you're old and grey mate, you're going to be given 1928 01:39:45,120 --> 01:39:46,800 back to the young, young fellows as. 1929 01:39:46,800 --> 01:39:49,400 Well, I'm not sure I'll get to Alabini mouse level, but let's 1930 01:39:49,400 --> 01:39:51,600 hope so, Maddie. I don't think you'll ever go 1931 01:39:51,600 --> 01:39:54,320 grey, you'll just like you'll just be young and fit forever. 1932 01:39:55,400 --> 01:39:57,480 But ah, good work boys. Sensational. 1933 01:39:57,480 --> 01:40:02,160 Hope everyone enjoyed that and I enjoy talking about MMS every 1934 01:40:02,160 --> 01:40:04,440 day of my life. Just like I enjoy talking about 1935 01:40:04,440 --> 01:40:08,160 Grounded Cross, Boundary Energy, Sandvik Ground support, CRE 1936 01:40:08,160 --> 01:40:11,520 Insurance, Greenland's equipment, K Drew, MMTS, 1937 01:40:11,720 --> 01:40:14,400 Australian Earthworks and Haulage and Sparkmatty. 1938 01:40:14,440 --> 01:40:16,520 I enjoy you doing that for me, JD. 1939 01:40:16,640 --> 01:40:17,520 Have a good weekend. Money. 1940 01:40:17,520 --> 01:40:21,360 Manners. Information contained in this 1941 01:40:21,360 --> 01:40:24,120 episode of Money of Mine is of general nature only and does not 1942 01:40:24,120 --> 01:40:26,760 take into account the objectives, financial situation 1943 01:40:26,800 --> 01:40:28,800 or needs of any particular person. 1944 01:40:29,120 --> 01:40:32,160 Before making any investment decision, you should consult 1945 01:40:32,160 --> 01:40:35,240 with your financial advisor and consider how appropriate the 1946 01:40:35,240 --> 01:40:38,920 advice is to your objectives, financial situation and needs.