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Who's going to be running 
Bellevue in FY20? 

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00:00:02,840 --> 00:00:07,640
7? 
That's good, mum. 

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Is it cheating if I say the 
same? 

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Do I have to go different? 
Righto buddy, miners buddy. 

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I've figured out five day 
conference takes five days to 

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get the voice back. 
I'm I'm in day four of voice 

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recovery. 
Day. 

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Four. 
What a bloody week. 

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Sounds like your voice is about 
70%. 70% I'm nearly there one 

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more day but you don't mind. 
The had a haircut and a 

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different hat so I think my face
looks chubbier but anyway. 

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Going for a new look, Maddie. 
Thanks Oz, I meant for a bloody 

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great work. 
Sounds like a rising stars. 

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Good times, boys. 
Sounded wicked. 

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Bellevue the news has coming up 
today, so that is probably going

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to take up the whole show. 
I, I think we may as well just 

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talk about it. 
It feels like, it feels like 

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they kept everyone in suspense 
for, for, for a while not being 

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in, in voluntary suspension and,
and we finally get used today 

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that there's an equity race to 
go with it. 

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Yes, one of the best sealed 
suspensions going around. 

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Most of them are like that. 
But it was, yeah, it didn't like

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there was a lot of speculations.
But no, no, like very rigid 

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rumours during that period I 
think. 

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I would say like my prediction 
last week was based on nothing 

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was I, I wouldn't have been 
surprised if they didn't come 

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out of suspension at all and it 
was just going to be a a sale. 

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I was sort of surprised it got 
to this stage. 

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That'd be brave, yeah. 
Yeah. 

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So because I assume there 
probably would have been a bit 

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of interest during the 
suspension which we'll go into, 

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which was mentioned. 
So yeah, a lot to cover. 

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So let's take it away. 
I guess, I guess first and 

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foremost guidance first thing, 
right. 

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So FY25 redone at 1:29 to 1:34 
at a midpoint of just under 2500

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Aussie all in sustaining. 
So kind of like we touched on 

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Maddie, that puts it at kind of 
40 to 45,000 oz needed for the 

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final quarter of the financial 
year. 

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00:02:03,880 --> 00:02:05,040
Yeah. 
And then obviously you've got 

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the the five year plan being 
wiped 150,000 oz marked for next

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financial year and then a kind 
of three-year period where they 

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do 190,000 oz. 
So that's a kind of basic five 

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year ish plan, right? 
Yeah. 

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So essentially looks like for 
the moment, the whole 200,000 oz

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numbers being what like doing 
the doing the calcs for 190,000 

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oz, that's sounded about 1.2 
million ton per annum at the 

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reserve grade of 5 grams a ton. 
They did say on the call they 

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were talking about 1.35, but 
then they were saying the 

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reserve wasn't going to be 
changed. 

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Well, one thing is probably 
surprising that the reserve 

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guard wasn't dropped, but it's 
these were like not gardens 

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numbers that 190. 
There's like a indicative 

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prediction for FY20 6. 
So yeah, it was. 

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It's a fairway off where where 
they'd last signal when they 

55
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raised money right like that was
they've raised their last equity

56
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and and sort of talked about it 
at 250,000 oz per annum kind of.

57
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Yeah, yeah, we and efficient 
those, Yeah. 

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So those they're probably the 
numbers that aren't sort of 

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adding up saying 1.6 million 
tonne was going to get them 

60
00:03:23,360 --> 00:03:29,200
250,000 oz, but now they're 
indicating maybe 1.21 point 3 is

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going to get them 190,000 oz. 
So which makes me think I don't 

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can't say it being it, it 
potentially just might not be a 

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5 grand, might it might be a 4 
1/2, but I haven't yet said they

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are down grading the reserve. 
Yeah, exactly. 

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To that point, Maddie, there was
the question kind of asked and 

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they were kind of prying into 
that. 

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That sort of 60,000 oz per annum
reduction that we're seeing, is 

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that purely a result of instead 
of doing 1.6 million ton per 

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annum doing 1.35 or have you 
worked in a bit of buffer by 

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being a bit conservative in your
reserve? 

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And the signalling from 
management was that it's mainly 

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a factor of just those through 
that throughput number coming 

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down and not actually 
conservatism in in the reserve 

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grade, which we've of course 
sort of seen kind of trimmed 

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last year or so. 
So yeah, I think you're, you're 

76
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on the right track there. 
I was kind of expecting that a 

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bit as well when you see that 
they're they're going a bit more

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cautiously at the overall output
of the mine. 

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Yeah. 
And you look at like you look at

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the photos here, like in terms 
of, you know, trying to figure 

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out what the reserve grade is 
from a geological estimation 

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point of view. 
And you look at like, you know, 

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this top picture here, you see, 
see a lot of like bits of this 

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is just in the drive itself. 
Who knows what's in between the 

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levels and everything. 
But like you see bits of 

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internal waste there, like in a,
in a couple of spots, like you 

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see in one picture down the 
bottom, it's like pretty wide in

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the drive. 
And then you see it pinch up at 

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the top. 
So I think there's a lot of 

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00:05:05,960 --> 00:05:09,360
pinching, swelling, bit of 
internal waste here and there. 

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00:05:09,360 --> 00:05:15,120
So trying to wrap a accurate 
number around the reserve is 

92
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probably a bit challenging 
whether I don't know if 5 grams 

93
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is what they consider 
conservative or not. 

94
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But maybe there's a lot of 
factors that contribute to they 

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talked about in the the blind 
Stopes that I'll say they're 

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talking about 3 blind Stopes 
they took at the end of quarter 

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had a lot the fault cut it off 
at a point. 

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So they took a lot of waste. 
So by the sounds, there's a lot 

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of cross cutting like faults 
that can shift the ore around 

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like that's that's on the 
extremities. 

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Look, I'm not sure. 
I think there might be also 

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faults within the drives that 
can sort of jump it around a bit

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and you can follow it in the 
drive, but there might be a 

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fault up in the middle of the 
stope that you don't know is 

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there until you mine it in the 
grades lower. 

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So there's a lot of, yeah, it 
sounds like they they do point 

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to geological complexities. 
I think they worded it or for 

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parts of the quarter. 
So I think that's probably going

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to be a a thing going forward. 
You could, you could kind of 

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infer that that degree of, you 
know, confidence or lack 

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thereof. 
When they talked about they said

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the June, the June quarter mine 
plan is, is 90% delineated with 

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great control and they said the 
next two quarters. 

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So in September and December 
quarters are 75% delineated with

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greater control. 
So yeah, there's, there's, 

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there's, there's confidence to 
be to be had through through all

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of that. 
But but no, no reserve downgrade

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yet. 
Yeah, just just a change in 

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change in guidance and. 
Yeah, I I think they'll get it 

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00:06:43,680 --> 00:06:46,600
by tonnes. 
Like it looks like with the 

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upgrades they've done in the 
middle, they've shown that they 

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can get 1.35 million tonne 
through on an annualised rate. 

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00:06:53,960 --> 00:06:58,640
So I think if you do the maths, 
1.3 million tonne at 4 1/2 grams

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is 190,000 oz, whereas I think 
it's 1.187 at 5 grams is 190,000

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00:07:05,320 --> 00:07:06,960
oz. 
So I think it's like, I think 

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they've got the capacity to get 
the tons through extra to 

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compensate if there is a bit 
lower grade than expected. 

128
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But who will own it? 
That's that's the other thing. 

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But 190,000 oz at 2 1/2 thousand
all in sustaining cost. 

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00:07:22,360 --> 00:07:25,440
Yeah, bloody take it any day of 
the week in this pricing 

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00:07:25,440 --> 00:07:30,880
environment. 
So it is dressed up as, you 

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00:07:30,880 --> 00:07:32,480
know, something that will be 
appealing. 

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00:07:32,480 --> 00:07:35,400
But we'll get to that. 
A. 100% what? 

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00:07:35,400 --> 00:07:38,840
About what about the raise, JD? 
Yeah, let's let's talk about the

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00:07:38,840 --> 00:07:41,760
raise before we jump the gun and
get into to who's going to be 

136
00:07:41,760 --> 00:07:45,320
the owner of the mine in in due 
course or have a brainstorm 

137
00:07:45,320 --> 00:07:49,920
about how that plays out. 
But 156 bucks at $0.85 is the 

138
00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:52,480
raise. 
So 26% discount to the last 

139
00:07:52,480 --> 00:07:59,240
close or 30% discount to the 
five day V what before they went

140
00:07:59,240 --> 00:08:03,360
into halt, you know, just 
chatting with people and hearing

141
00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:05,960
rumours and stuff. 
Some some rumours were that it 

142
00:08:05,960 --> 00:08:08,040
would be at a bit of a steeper 
discount. 

143
00:08:08,040 --> 00:08:11,240
I mean it is what it is at the 
end of the day, it's a it's a 

144
00:08:11,240 --> 00:08:14,960
fairly common money after they 
raised not all that long ago in 

145
00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:18,120
terms of the the use of funds 
about 110 million is going 

146
00:08:18,120 --> 00:08:22,280
towards closing at hedges which 
we'll speak to as well and 40 

147
00:08:22,280 --> 00:08:25,600
million just going in, in the 
bank for, for working capital. 

148
00:08:25,600 --> 00:08:30,280
That kind of leaves them with 
about 90 million bucks to see 

149
00:08:30,280 --> 00:08:32,280
them through over the the next 
few quarters. 

150
00:08:32,280 --> 00:08:35,400
And then of course that 100 
million dollars in debt that 

151
00:08:35,400 --> 00:08:39,240
they've got which is payable in 
in sort of four lots over the 

152
00:08:39,240 --> 00:08:43,480
the calendar year 27 period. 
Yeah, 'cause you would have 

153
00:08:43,480 --> 00:08:47,960
thought with that suspension it 
was going to be 75 like 30 plus 

154
00:08:47,960 --> 00:08:50,880
percent discount. 
Well, that was the sort of the 

155
00:08:50,880 --> 00:08:55,160
thoughts which which indicates 
there's to get a 26% discount 

156
00:08:55,160 --> 00:08:59,880
after being in suspension that 
long is like somewhat some fund 

157
00:08:59,880 --> 00:09:03,800
or something has probably come 
in pretty big and set that price

158
00:09:04,280 --> 00:09:07,040
I would assume what do you. 
What do you reckon the the raise

159
00:09:07,040 --> 00:09:10,600
price would have been if they 
didn't, didn't allude to a 

160
00:09:10,600 --> 00:09:12,800
strategic review and, and 
corporate bids? 

161
00:09:13,000 --> 00:09:14,160
That's an interesting question, 
right? 

162
00:09:14,160 --> 00:09:17,120
Like if they didn't say that, I 
reckon they would have that 

163
00:09:17,120 --> 00:09:19,760
raise would have been a, you 
know, that's the carrot. 

164
00:09:19,800 --> 00:09:21,520
Maybe even $0.10 lower, Like who
knows? 

165
00:09:21,520 --> 00:09:23,520
Like it's, yeah. 
I think they, I think whether 

166
00:09:23,520 --> 00:09:26,720
they raised or not, it would 
have opened at exactly the same 

167
00:09:26,720 --> 00:09:28,960
price. 
It was, it was actually trading.

168
00:09:28,960 --> 00:09:33,680
They got an OTC listing which 
was which you know, you can't 

169
00:09:33,680 --> 00:09:35,640
couldn't hold that. 
So that thing was trading at 50 

170
00:09:35,680 --> 00:09:38,440
US cents I think I saw. 
So I don't know how much 

171
00:09:38,440 --> 00:09:40,760
liquidity there is on that, but 
that's that's to some degree a 

172
00:09:40,760 --> 00:09:43,960
bit of a price barometer and 
install of everything that's 

173
00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:44,880
going on. 
Yeah. 

174
00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:49,200
And it looks like it looks like 
the the March, the March quarter

175
00:09:49,200 --> 00:09:51,960
was obviously the catalyst to 
this whole event. 

176
00:09:51,960 --> 00:09:57,280
Like, you know, 25,000 oz at all
in sustaining costs of 3125. 

177
00:09:57,280 --> 00:10:00,680
Like they've talked about, you 
say in the comments talking to 

178
00:10:00,680 --> 00:10:04,240
like localized geology, 
geological complexity, some sub 

179
00:10:04,240 --> 00:10:07,280
optimal mining practices, which 
indicate and it's what we've 

180
00:10:07,280 --> 00:10:09,080
said all along. 
I think there's there's always 

181
00:10:09,080 --> 00:10:11,920
been a bit from column a bit 
from column BA bit from column 

182
00:10:11,920 --> 00:10:13,720
C. 
So there's geological stuff, 

183
00:10:13,720 --> 00:10:17,960
probably some dilution or like 
there, there's just been a bit 

184
00:10:17,960 --> 00:10:21,360
of everything that bloody is 
causing to fall short. 

185
00:10:21,360 --> 00:10:23,920
So. 
Yeah, to your point, Maddie, on 

186
00:10:23,920 --> 00:10:27,720
the on the faults as well at 
Fiago specifically delaying 

187
00:10:27,720 --> 00:10:31,800
access, they said to a, to a 
high grade Stoke hits it because

188
00:10:31,800 --> 00:10:35,240
I think the head grade came in 
at 3.1g per ton. 

189
00:10:35,240 --> 00:10:39,080
And obviously, you know, there's
a few factors playing into that 

190
00:10:39,080 --> 00:10:43,080
one, but not being able to get 
into some higher grade spots is 

191
00:10:43,200 --> 00:10:47,360
not advantageous, right? 
And as well as that, mate, the 

192
00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:50,320
Viagra decline was delayed. 
So that's sort of been been 

193
00:10:50,320 --> 00:10:53,320
pushed out a bit. 
And to, to kind of give the 

194
00:10:53,320 --> 00:10:55,080
market and give investors a bit 
of confidence. 

195
00:10:55,080 --> 00:10:58,840
I think they spoke to April's 
head grade coming in line with 

196
00:10:58,880 --> 00:11:02,640
expectations, IE sort of better 
than what we've seen over the, 

197
00:11:02,960 --> 00:11:05,160
the March period. 
As well as that, you've got the,

198
00:11:05,160 --> 00:11:08,120
the review of the resource 
model, which I think everyone's 

199
00:11:08,120 --> 00:11:12,080
pretty, you know, was pretty 
eager to to sort of see and 

200
00:11:12,480 --> 00:11:16,000
they, they reiterate confidence.
They kind of speak to how little

201
00:11:16,000 --> 00:11:19,880
of the the near term answers are
coming from inferred. 

202
00:11:20,000 --> 00:11:22,040
And you know, I mean, there's 
only so far out. 

203
00:11:22,040 --> 00:11:25,560
You can kind of do that before 
it gets cost prohibitive, but I 

204
00:11:25,560 --> 00:11:27,840
think that's certainly things 
people wanted to see. 

205
00:11:28,000 --> 00:11:29,680
Yeah. 
And like the new, the new mind 

206
00:11:29,680 --> 00:11:32,120
plan they put out, we went over 
the physicals before. 

207
00:11:32,320 --> 00:11:37,200
But look, they've pretty much 
it's a bit of a scale back. 

208
00:11:37,200 --> 00:11:40,600
They're going from what 6 jumbos
back down to 5. 

209
00:11:40,600 --> 00:11:44,200
They're going to sort of, 
they're obviously wiping all, a 

210
00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:47,440
lot of the CapEx to go out to 
these new areas. 

211
00:11:47,680 --> 00:11:51,480
It says that like they've the 
Viago mining area. 

212
00:11:51,480 --> 00:11:52,960
I think they're delaying going 
out there. 

213
00:11:52,960 --> 00:11:56,840
So they've put ground conditions
as the cause of it. 

214
00:11:56,840 --> 00:12:02,400
So that might be just passed on 
to someone else to go Chuck a 

215
00:12:02,560 --> 00:12:05,200
upgraded ground support regime 
in because it's like they've 

216
00:12:05,360 --> 00:12:08,320
sort of, I think it's pretty 
good ground everywhere there 

217
00:12:08,320 --> 00:12:12,440
with, you know, the standard 
split sets of mesh. 

218
00:12:12,760 --> 00:12:16,000
So it sounds like that area 
would probably need a bit extra.

219
00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:19,920
So that's probably a good thing 
to leave someone else to call 

220
00:12:19,920 --> 00:12:22,800
Sandvik for a bloody ground. 
Some ground support products 

221
00:12:22,800 --> 00:12:26,360
that absolutely might be used 
there, which I got to see in 

222
00:12:26,360 --> 00:12:29,040
underground operators. 
It would have been shining 

223
00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:30,880
colours. 
Look at me standing with the 

224
00:12:30,880 --> 00:12:33,200
billion dollar man here. 
I have a look at him. 

225
00:12:33,840 --> 00:12:37,400
Derek an A man heard. 
I'd say he looks $1,000,000, but

226
00:12:37,400 --> 00:12:38,200
he looks a billion. 
Dollars. 

227
00:12:38,200 --> 00:12:41,520
He is a bloody billion dollars. 
Did I say million before billion

228
00:12:41,520 --> 00:12:43,040
dollar million? 
Yeah, that's what they call in 

229
00:12:43,040 --> 00:12:44,960
him. 
And so mate should have seen on 

230
00:12:44,960 --> 00:12:46,680
showcase this could be good for 
the Viago. 

231
00:12:46,680 --> 00:12:50,120
Actually. 
It's like a it's a self drilling

232
00:12:50,480 --> 00:12:54,600
posi mix bolt with a like a 
hollow centre with the there's 

233
00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:57,840
new resin injection technology 
that they're gonna bloody bolt 

234
00:12:57,840 --> 00:13:02,200
onto the Sandvik jumbos, squirt 
it up the whole encapsulate 

235
00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:07,440
around the posi mix bolt and 
absolutely revolutionize the 

236
00:13:07,440 --> 00:13:10,440
installation of posi mix bolts. 
All because of the billion 

237
00:13:10,440 --> 00:13:12,000
dollar man. 
Unbelievable, mate. 

238
00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:15,960
Good move, Sandvik. 
I can't there's bloody that 

239
00:13:15,960 --> 00:13:19,280
there was bloody mate. 
Resin injection was the feel of 

240
00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:20,840
the conference. 
That is interesting. 

241
00:13:20,880 --> 00:13:22,560
I'm. 
Glad they're all about green 

242
00:13:22,560 --> 00:13:24,320
energy. 
I can tell you that that that 

243
00:13:24,320 --> 00:13:26,160
that wasn't even to be seen at 
the conference. 

244
00:13:26,160 --> 00:13:30,240
She's all about resin injection.
So mate, good to see the billion

245
00:13:30,240 --> 00:13:31,720
dollar man so. 
Go, Sandvik. 

246
00:13:31,720 --> 00:13:32,920
Go. 
Sandvik ground support. 

247
00:13:33,600 --> 00:13:36,680
So what else? 
JD, you got some other go 

248
00:13:36,680 --> 00:13:38,720
through the update. 
We can just, yeah, we'll just 

249
00:13:38,840 --> 00:13:41,480
fly through the rest of the mine
plan update, right? 

250
00:13:41,480 --> 00:13:45,480
Because I think it's kind of 
important in how the narratives 

251
00:13:45,600 --> 00:13:48,440
kind of change because when they
came out last year with the 

252
00:13:48,440 --> 00:13:52,400
capital raise, we, we all kind 
of knew it was to address 

253
00:13:52,400 --> 00:13:56,080
underlying issues, but they kind
of had to wrap this big growth 

254
00:13:56,080 --> 00:13:58,640
narrative around it. 
And obviously they've, they've 

255
00:13:58,640 --> 00:14:00,680
backtracked on, on a few of 
those. 

256
00:14:00,680 --> 00:14:03,040
So they've kind of spoken to 
reducing reliance on the 

257
00:14:03,040 --> 00:14:07,560
Marceline mining area, a bit of 
a reduction in the Deacon main 

258
00:14:07,680 --> 00:14:12,440
average Oz delivery also, as 
well as Viago delayed access to 

259
00:14:12,440 --> 00:14:14,480
Deacon N. 
So that's been pushed out by 6 

260
00:14:14,480 --> 00:14:17,720
months. 
And then Maddie, you'll, you'll 

261
00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:19,960
speak to this point a bit 
better, but they speak about 

262
00:14:20,280 --> 00:14:24,640
increasing in the, the lower 
mind pillar sizes by 60%. 

263
00:14:24,800 --> 00:14:29,600
So from memory below the the 550
sort of level, they're changing 

264
00:14:29,760 --> 00:14:31,320
how they're going about things 
down there. 

265
00:14:31,320 --> 00:14:36,200
Yeah, it sounds like I didn't 
find, I didn't write enough on 

266
00:14:36,200 --> 00:14:38,560
that, but I assume they're 
either making the pillars bigger

267
00:14:38,560 --> 00:14:42,760
or putting more pillars in and 
reducing the strike length of 

268
00:14:42,760 --> 00:14:44,560
the stipes. 
So they're obviously identifying

269
00:14:44,560 --> 00:14:47,920
as they go to depth, they might 
have some increased stress and 

270
00:14:47,920 --> 00:14:50,320
they need more pillars left 
between the stipes. 

271
00:14:51,080 --> 00:14:54,280
So I'm not sure if they're just 
making the pillars bigger or 

272
00:14:54,280 --> 00:14:59,240
they're putting more pillars in,
which is 6 essentially 60% more 

273
00:14:59,520 --> 00:15:01,080
pillars being left in the 
ground. 

274
00:15:01,080 --> 00:15:05,160
So yeah. 
Yeah. 

275
00:15:05,160 --> 00:15:08,440
And to to wrap numbers, cost 
numbers around that they speak 

276
00:15:08,440 --> 00:15:13,520
to 35 to $42 million per month 
being the the all in, you know 

277
00:15:13,520 --> 00:15:16,880
corporate exploration, the 
all-encompassing cost base that 

278
00:15:16,880 --> 00:15:21,920
they're going to experience 
through FY20 6 and FY20 7. 

279
00:15:21,920 --> 00:15:24,960
So doing a bit of Bush maths on 
those numbers. 

280
00:15:24,960 --> 00:15:27,120
If you take them, I'll have some
Bush maths, JD. 

281
00:15:27,960 --> 00:15:31,120
I did it just for you mate. 
So if you take the midpoint and 

282
00:15:31,120 --> 00:15:34,880
analyze those numbers over FY20 
6 where we're talking about 

283
00:15:34,880 --> 00:15:40,200
150,000 ounces of output, you're
talking about unit costs of a 

284
00:15:40,200 --> 00:15:43,480
bit over 3000 Aussie an ounce. 
Now remember, not all in 

285
00:15:43,480 --> 00:15:45,200
sustaining costs. 
This is, this is kind of 

286
00:15:45,200 --> 00:15:47,840
everything or most of everything
in it. 

287
00:15:48,640 --> 00:15:51,160
Now if, if my numbers are, are 
right, hopefully they are, 

288
00:15:51,160 --> 00:15:55,600
that's a cash flow of a bit over
$300 million Aussie in FY20. 6 

289
00:15:56,240 --> 00:16:00,520
back of the envelope after they 
pay out the hedges like they've 

290
00:16:00,520 --> 00:16:05,200
said there is a $110 million 
liability that still needs to be

291
00:16:05,200 --> 00:16:09,320
paid over FY20 6 So I just net 
that off against the cash flow 

292
00:16:09,320 --> 00:16:13,000
and you're getting about 200 
million ish in, in free cash 

293
00:16:13,000 --> 00:16:14,280
over that. 
That period. 

294
00:16:15,160 --> 00:16:17,080
Again, might be a bit of 
interest and and other things 

295
00:16:17,080 --> 00:16:21,080
they need to pay on the fringes 
there over FY20 7 when they move

296
00:16:21,080 --> 00:16:25,520
up to that 190,000 oz per annum 
profile, the unit cost pull down

297
00:16:25,520 --> 00:16:27,640
because the the total costs are 
the same. 

298
00:16:27,640 --> 00:16:31,520
Just using that midpoint again 
and you get a unit cost of a bit

299
00:16:31,520 --> 00:16:34,360
under 2 1/2 thousand Aussie an 
ounce. 

300
00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:39,240
So at these gold prices, super 
healthy margin, that's 2700 

301
00:16:39,240 --> 00:16:43,160
bucks an ounce or cash flow of a
bit over 500 million. 

302
00:16:43,800 --> 00:16:47,600
Again, of course, big hedge 
liability, 130 million over that

303
00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:49,360
period. 
That's the kind of delta at the 

304
00:16:49,360 --> 00:16:52,120
moment we're seeing there. 
And as well as that you'll have 

305
00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:54,760
50 million bucks that needs to 
be paid in the first half of 

306
00:16:54,760 --> 00:16:59,080
calendar year 27 in debt. 
So that leaves about 330 million

307
00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:03,160
bucks for the owners. 
So not, not too bad. 

308
00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:04,800
And I think that's going to tie 
in well with our our 

309
00:17:05,880 --> 00:17:08,720
conversation on who wants to own
this or who might be interested,

310
00:17:08,760 --> 00:17:11,040
especially when it comes to 
tomorrow. 

311
00:17:11,040 --> 00:17:12,839
And we see where the thing 
starts trading at. 

312
00:17:12,839 --> 00:17:16,680
But that gets you a bit of a a 
ballpark for a company that if 

313
00:17:16,680 --> 00:17:22,040
they come out at $0.85, it's a 
market cap of around about $1.25

314
00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:26,599
billion. 
So you know, you, it'll, we, I 

315
00:17:26,599 --> 00:17:29,120
think it'll be enticing for some
people, but I think we'll, we'll

316
00:17:29,120 --> 00:17:31,200
talk through a few more 
different aspects before we, we 

317
00:17:31,200 --> 00:17:32,400
get to that point. 
Yeah, I know. 

318
00:17:32,560 --> 00:17:34,560
I think it like the interesting 
thing about that we're just 

319
00:17:34,560 --> 00:17:40,000
talking about it before is once 
it'd be interesting to say now 

320
00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:42,360
that they're they've slowed down
a bit, they're going to, as you 

321
00:17:42,360 --> 00:17:46,600
said, focus, focus on quality a 
bit more like like the really 

322
00:17:46,640 --> 00:17:51,640
focus on the OR extraction and 
the like de risking and like 

323
00:17:51,640 --> 00:17:54,280
risk profiling each area to make
sure it's drilled. 

324
00:17:54,280 --> 00:17:56,240
They know where the faults are 
and everything. 

325
00:17:56,240 --> 00:18:01,000
It's like whether they're going 
to be always struggling to hit 

326
00:18:01,000 --> 00:18:03,520
guidance, it's always going to 
be a push or there's some 

327
00:18:03,520 --> 00:18:07,680
potential upside where they can 
freaking have a 60 like a high 

328
00:18:07,680 --> 00:18:10,720
grade month and a 60,000 oz 
month. 

329
00:18:10,720 --> 00:18:14,400
Like it's yet to be seen if like
there is that potential 

330
00:18:14,480 --> 00:18:16,960
outperformance in the ore body 
or not. 

331
00:18:16,960 --> 00:18:20,000
Once they really iron in on 
everything or it's going to be 

332
00:18:20,000 --> 00:18:22,520
one that they're going to, it's 
just going to really struggle to

333
00:18:22,520 --> 00:18:25,720
hit, you know, 45,000 oz each 
quarter. 

334
00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:29,280
When they get to that point, who
will know? 

335
00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:32,040
But it, it sounds like when 
they're talking about delaying, 

336
00:18:32,920 --> 00:18:35,560
was it delaying the Deacon NI 
think? 

337
00:18:35,560 --> 00:18:38,960
So it sounds like that one, 
which which obviously means, 

338
00:18:38,960 --> 00:18:40,880
right. 
We we could go there now because

339
00:18:40,880 --> 00:18:43,400
I assume that's one of the 
bloody deacons, the high grade 

340
00:18:43,480 --> 00:18:49,400
area or we can delayed save the 
CapEx and then make 27/28/29 a 

341
00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:52,800
much smoother period. 
So it's good. 

342
00:18:53,040 --> 00:18:56,360
It's just I think this and to be
honest, I think this is what 

343
00:18:56,360 --> 00:19:00,280
everyone wanted. 
They just wanted to like a, a, a

344
00:19:00,520 --> 00:19:05,440
realistic something that they're
like, yeah, no, that sounds, 

345
00:19:05,440 --> 00:19:08,040
that sounds achievable. 
It's not over ambitious. 

346
00:19:08,040 --> 00:19:11,160
It's not like we're like a bit 
of belief that like, yeah, we're

347
00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:14,280
like 190 a 190,000 oz. 
Yeah, we feel that could be 

348
00:19:14,560 --> 00:19:18,920
achieved. 
And at a not at $1500 all in 

349
00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:22,280
sustaining. 
So yeah, it's this is this is 

350
00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:25,440
what I think the big dogs have 
been wanting for a while. 

351
00:19:26,480 --> 00:19:28,800
Yeah, for sure. 
And you got Trav. 

352
00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:34,960
Yeah, it's kind of symptomatic 
of like a like expectations have

353
00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:37,080
been set too, too large for 
what's doable here. 

354
00:19:37,080 --> 00:19:40,960
And that's that's kind of why 
the Bellevue's been like a big 

355
00:19:40,960 --> 00:19:43,960
underperformer amidst every 
other kind of gold name just 

356
00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:47,000
really, you know, benefiting 
from this, this gold price 

357
00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:50,360
environment. 
Yeah, it's it's you don't want, 

358
00:19:50,560 --> 00:19:52,880
you don't want expectations to 
be beyond what's achievable 

359
00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:55,160
because then, you know, you 
actually want to, you actually 

360
00:19:55,160 --> 00:19:57,520
want to be able to outperform 
market expectations 

361
00:19:57,520 --> 00:19:59,080
consistently. 
And that's, that's how you, 

362
00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:01,280
that's how you, you know, become
a market darling. 

363
00:20:01,280 --> 00:20:03,600
That's how the market loves you.
But this unfortunately Bobby was

364
00:20:03,600 --> 00:20:06,000
a market darling before it could
prove itself because the 

365
00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:08,960
expectations are so big. 
So it's, yeah, it's unfortunate,

366
00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:12,160
but hopefully that recalibrating
of expectations of what's 

367
00:20:12,160 --> 00:20:15,400
actually like doable and then 
constantly setting them 

368
00:20:15,520 --> 00:20:17,880
realistic and then over 
delivering will well, will you 

369
00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:20,280
know, help it help. 
Navigate the next period. 

370
00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:26,200
Ahead as well as as well as like
market expectations Macquarie 

371
00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:30,960
has to have their their 
expectations sort of regauged 

372
00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:33,320
right because you've got these 
these covenants and all these 

373
00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:35,960
other sort of bits and pieces 
that are based around the 

374
00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:39,960
original my plan. 
So they, Macquarie sort of said 

375
00:20:39,960 --> 00:20:44,360
that they've waived their review
event kind of rights and this 

376
00:20:44,360 --> 00:20:47,440
was triggered by the, the 
quarterly production test at the

377
00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:49,680
back end of the, the March 
quarter. 

378
00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:52,880
In simple terms that the output 
over the March period is just 

379
00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:54,520
not close enough to the mine 
plan. 

380
00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:55,840
I would guess. 
I mean, there's a few other ways

381
00:20:55,840 --> 00:21:00,280
of, of assessing them, but to 
quarry the lender, they want to 

382
00:21:00,280 --> 00:21:02,440
be, they want to be safe, they 
want to reassess their risk and 

383
00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:04,800
they have rights when these 
things are sort of breached. 

384
00:21:05,080 --> 00:21:07,640
So you need to go and present 
the new mine plan to them, get 

385
00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:10,880
their permission. 
And with their permission as 

386
00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:12,800
well, close out, close out the 
hedges. 

387
00:21:12,800 --> 00:21:15,120
And of course, all of this 
stuff, they, they're going to 

388
00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:17,000
get paid as well, right? 
Sort of in the fine print, 

389
00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:19,840
they're getting eight and a half
million shares just to to 

390
00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:22,760
restructure and for the 
privilege of paying out the the 

391
00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:25,040
hedges. 
For zero, for 0 cash, eight and 

392
00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:26,720
a half million shares. 
You have to squint your eyes at 

393
00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:28,960
the footnotes on page 12 to, to 
read that. 

394
00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:32,400
But, but that's $7.3 million at 
$0.85 a share. 

395
00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:36,240
That's a, that's an enormous fee
in, in the banking world for, 

396
00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:39,280
yeah, for a kind of a 
restructure of, of, of hedge 

397
00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:41,400
obligations. 
Yeah, I think there sure is. 

398
00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:45,680
There is a bit of a cost 
associated with doing it, plus I

399
00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:49,440
assume a margin on top for for 
that, absolutely. 

400
00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:50,280
It's a. 
Giant fair. 

401
00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:51,560
Yeah. 
I mean, let's talk more about 

402
00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:53,960
the the hedge book. 
Trevor, I know you, you jumped 

403
00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:55,600
into it. 
Maybe maybe pull up your notes 

404
00:21:55,600 --> 00:21:57,840
on that one. 
I did, I did have a good, yeah, 

405
00:21:57,840 --> 00:21:59,840
had a look at it. 
I mean you can see part of that 

406
00:21:59,840 --> 00:22:03,200
restructure involved rolling 
some hedges beyond the previous 

407
00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:05,280
latest date of that hedge 
period. 

408
00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:09,400
So you know, March quarter of 
2028 now has some hedge dances 

409
00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:12,560
which it didn't before. 
And while rolling of those 

410
00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:16,480
hedges alleviates near term kind
of, you know, cash flow and you 

411
00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:18,960
can maximize your free cash flow
in the in the in the near term, 

412
00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:22,720
it does kick the can down the 
road to an extent, right? 

413
00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:26,160
And it has to be addressed at a 
later date and for a longer 

414
00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:28,480
period of time than you'd 
previously envisioned. 

415
00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:32,120
And unfortunately, there are 
examples and precedents in gold 

416
00:22:32,120 --> 00:22:35,720
miners in our in our state where
if you roll hedges in, you kick 

417
00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:38,680
the can down the road, that 
liability can, can grow 

418
00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:41,720
substantially more in value. 
If if the gold price kind of 

419
00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:43,320
goes much, much higher than you 
thought. 

420
00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:45,320
And all of a sudden, you know, 
you thought you'd keep the can 

421
00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:47,200
down the road, but it was at a 
reasonable gold price. 

422
00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:49,240
All of a sudden it can look 
pretty, pretty daunting, as you 

423
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:52,480
know, depending on what that 
gold backdrop looks like. 

424
00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:55,200
And yeah, I just, I just think 
that's worth, it's worth 

425
00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:59,040
considering the implications of 
of all of that, despite the the 

426
00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:00,960
Macquarie, like, you know, fee 
there. 

427
00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:04,960
I, I was kind of interested in 
plugging in the the hedge book 

428
00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:08,520
into an excel workbook and just 
having a bit of a play with it. 

429
00:23:08,520 --> 00:23:12,600
And if you just Chuck in, you 
know, spot price right now, if, 

430
00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:17,560
if 5200 Aussie for a gold price,
then then what they're actually 

431
00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:19,640
the value of the out of the 
money value of the hedge book, 

432
00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:21,040
they're actually going to close 
out. 

433
00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:25,160
Is, is only about, it's like 
less than 30% of, of what the, 

434
00:23:25,360 --> 00:23:28,280
you know, the total hedge 
liability would be if they, if 

435
00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:29,840
they didn't close that, that, 
that amount out. 

436
00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:34,240
So this raises like 15% dilution
to the equity capital structure.

437
00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:36,840
And you're, and you're making a,
you know, it's a modest dent in 

438
00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:39,280
the, in the overall picture of 
that hedge liability, which is 

439
00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:42,520
subject to getting bigger if 
gold brass goes, goes higher as 

440
00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:43,480
well. 
It's still about, you know, 

441
00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:47,120
$350.00 and 5200 store price 
right now that would would still

442
00:23:47,120 --> 00:23:50,800
be there in, in, in hedges which
can and, and there's a, there's 

443
00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:54,840
a period there, I think it's the
back end of 2027 where the, the 

444
00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:58,080
quantity of hedge dances kind of
shoots quite a bit higher. 

445
00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:00,760
So just managing that with your 
mind plan and all that sort of 

446
00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:02,680
stuff is going to be, it's going
to be interesting. 

447
00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:04,520
I think they they alleviate the 
near term stress with this, 

448
00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:06,040
which is good. 
They can have some near term 

449
00:24:06,120 --> 00:24:08,480
like good cash flow, but I don't
think investors should ignore 

450
00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:11,400
what what remains at the at the 
end of it, which is is still 

451
00:24:11,400 --> 00:24:14,080
still a substantial edge book. 
Yeah, because you say those 

452
00:24:14,080 --> 00:24:17,200
those two you're Speaking of, it
looks like like if they have a 

453
00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:22,120
45,000 oz month or even below 
like that's you know half their 

454
00:24:22,120 --> 00:24:25,920
production is hedged at what's 
that 2900? 

455
00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:29,000
Yeah, 2906. 
Yeah, so and as you said, Rob, 

456
00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:33,240
when the principal starts being 
repaid for the debt as well. 

457
00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:34,960
Exactly. 
Yeah, there's that, that 100 

458
00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:36,960
million I think is yeah, payable
Cy 27. 

459
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:39,880
So you've got, you've got a a 
bit of extra cash flow pressure 

460
00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:41,480
that comes in calendar you're 
27. 

461
00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:43,080
Of course it's not. 
It's not today. 

462
00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:44,760
But it it is. 
It is sooner than we all think. 

463
00:24:44,760 --> 00:24:48,040
You know, it's like, yeah. 
Like probably the the thing 

464
00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:55,280
that'll help with in, in the in 
the shorter term for delivery of

465
00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:57,440
those answers and probably 27 as
well. 

466
00:24:57,440 --> 00:25:01,720
This is like a a back end 
problem is like because I 

467
00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:04,520
didn't, it sounds like that 
paste plant isn't happening 

468
00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:06,600
anymore because I'm talking 
about it now. 

469
00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:09,800
I've searched paste can't find 
anything. 

470
00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:12,440
So it doesn't, it sounds like 
it's just going to be a pillar 

471
00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:19,600
operation so that, that, that 
will speed up the mining rights 

472
00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:22,760
because you're not relying on 
paste or everything, but it is 

473
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:27,200
you're affected and we're there.
It was in the study, I think in 

474
00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:30,800
the study was calculated, I 
think 82% recovery of the oil, 

475
00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:33,040
which takes into account the 
pillars that are being left. 

476
00:25:33,360 --> 00:25:35,920
They're obviously looking at 
putting a pace, planning to get 

477
00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:42,120
100% extraction or close to 100%
extraction of the oil without to

478
00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:46,080
which elongates the life of the 
assets. 

479
00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:51,760
So bad news for Quattro because 
that's probably looking like 1 

480
00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:53,520
pace plant that is not being 
built. 

481
00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:57,280
But someone else's problem is 
someone else's opportunity. 

482
00:25:57,440 --> 00:25:58,720
Someone else might might, that 
is. 

483
00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:01,520
Just like that means you can get
them working on your pace plant 

484
00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:03,560
when they would have been 
working on this one. 

485
00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:08,760
They, they somebody, the pace, 
somebody would be on the ground 

486
00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:10,960
out there. 
Oh look at look at how excited 

487
00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:13,840
you 2 are like. 
Just excited just thinking about

488
00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:15,280
it. 
Just going at it, but you would 

489
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:19,880
have been excited if you'd come 
and seen the QD too underground 

490
00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:21,920
operators. 
But have a look at it. 

491
00:26:22,280 --> 00:26:25,760
The Quattro diverter version 
3.9. 

492
00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:29,080
Unbelievable. 
Like this thing just I had lunch

493
00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:33,080
next to it each day that I was 
at the conference at lunch. 

494
00:26:33,360 --> 00:26:37,120
Might have flipped on the night 
shift from bloody Wednesday 

495
00:26:37,120 --> 00:26:40,120
onwards. 
But mate, these these diverter 

496
00:26:40,120 --> 00:26:43,440
valves, they've just got even 
better. 50% increase in the 

497
00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:48,720
pressure rating like 15 MPA 
pressure rating right now on 

498
00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:52,520
those things, buddy, like man 
manless hanging system to put 

499
00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:55,920
these things up so manless 
manless like you're just same as

500
00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:59,000
the fan hanging system that 
they've got like just Chuck it 

501
00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:01,160
up there, keep everyone safe, 
right? 

502
00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:03,720
The automation that goes in with
these QD twos. 

503
00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:06,800
So if there's a bloody 
pressurized detected in the 

504
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:12,280
retic line, the system will 
automatically flick it over to 

505
00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:15,800
the dump line, which will drop 
it in a sump, protect your ray 

506
00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:17,920
tick and you don't block the 
whole line. 

507
00:27:18,360 --> 00:27:22,120
All because of Jeremy Palmer. 
That is, that is amazing pace. 

508
00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:25,800
So if you want to protect your 
ray tick line, go buy a shit 

509
00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:30,400
load of QD twos or QD fours with
the increased pressure rating 

510
00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:32,840
and just keep your ray tick line
safe. 

511
00:27:32,880 --> 00:27:36,720
It's just a beautiful pace of 
engineering by Quattro. 

512
00:27:36,800 --> 00:27:40,280
And thanks for the lunch table. 
Pay for itself? 

513
00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:41,120
Go. 
Contracts. 

514
00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:46,600
Anyway, now the strategic 
review, it's do you. 

515
00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:49,040
Sometimes you'll want to hear 
it. 

516
00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:51,360
A lot of times you don't want to
hear it. 

517
00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:55,480
Yeah, it's usually kind of the I
reckon you're. 

518
00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:57,440
Wanting it right? 
I reckon you'll want to hear it.

519
00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:01,600
Yeah, when when a company with 
multiple assets says for 

520
00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:04,720
strategic review, it's not 
normally a a great sign, but 

521
00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:06,680
there's a bit of nuance to it in
in this case. 

522
00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:10,880
So they flag looking at internal
and external options and then 

523
00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:13,240
they sort of mentioned control 
changes. 

524
00:28:13,240 --> 00:28:17,160
So a direct snippet was that 
Bellevue's confirmed it has 

525
00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:20,160
recently received unsolicited 
approaches relating to a 

526
00:28:20,160 --> 00:28:25,000
potential control transaction. 
So they say no formal proposals 

527
00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:27,600
or offers were received. 
Of course, that's, that's not a 

528
00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:30,600
big surprise, but people are, 
people are having a bit of a 

529
00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:32,240
peek. 
They're looking around, they're 

530
00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:35,680
seeing what they can sort of do 
with management, where they can 

531
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:38,240
kind of get to. 
And it was interesting to hear 

532
00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:41,000
the question asked, like how 
many of these, you know, if you 

533
00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:44,360
can put a number to it or if any
of them came in the last two? 

534
00:28:44,360 --> 00:28:45,680
Weeks. 
Can I, can I play that question 

535
00:28:45,680 --> 00:28:47,280
on the call? 
I'll play, I'll play, play it. 

536
00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:49,760
But but before you do, you 
should have seen how many 

537
00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:53,320
unsolicited approaches I've seen
between mining companies late at

538
00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:57,640
night at underground operators. 
That's right, it's so good. 

539
00:28:57,800 --> 00:29:00,480
Oh, what a place to be, right in
the heart of it. 

540
00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:03,880
Where business gets done. 
Hey, Maddie, All righty. 

541
00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:08,080
On the the question was asked 
previously and I won't draw you 

542
00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:11,560
on more detail around the 
approaches from third parties 

543
00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:15,120
other than to ask about timing 
when they might have been. 

544
00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:18,080
And the question for that is, 
I'm curious to know whether a 

545
00:29:18,120 --> 00:29:20,600
third party is approached during
the last two weeks, you know, 

546
00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:23,640
in, in opportunistically in 
what's potentially a position of

547
00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:26,640
weakness or whether there were 
there have potentially been 

548
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:30,400
approaches prior to this, I 
guess the last couple of weeks 

549
00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:34,280
of, of uncertainty. 
Yeah, Look, I, I think we've 

550
00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:39,160
said what we wanted to say in 
the statement that's in the the 

551
00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:42,560
announcements, Paul. 
So I think we'll just decline to

552
00:29:42,560 --> 00:29:45,160
comment. 
It's no upside in discussing M&A

553
00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:47,480
and, and speculation on that 
front. 

554
00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:50,120
So we've said what we want to 
say on it. 

555
00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:52,920
And if there's, you know, room 
for a future update, we'll 

556
00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:54,400
provide it to the market. 
As appropriate. 

557
00:29:54,400 --> 00:29:57,640
Got interesting, right? 
That's a lot the anti magnetic 

558
00:29:57,640 --> 00:30:01,200
response. 
What was the bloody some? 

559
00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:03,200
Runs in the data room, some runs
in it. 

560
00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:06,040
Was someone doing their washing 
up while they were answering 

561
00:30:06,040 --> 00:30:07,000
that question? 
No. 

562
00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:09,760
It was 'cause I was, I was 
recording, oh, speaker into a 

563
00:30:09,760 --> 00:30:11,840
microphone and tapping, tapping 
the desk. 

564
00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:14,440
Yeah, but not. 
Not gonna lie, I did, I did have

565
00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:17,200
it on like 100 trying to just, I
can put my ear to it to, to 

566
00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:18,960
listen to it. 
But it's interesting 'cause we 

567
00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:21,680
all, we all got kind of 
attracted to the same snippet. 

568
00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:23,720
Really, really interesting to 
see. 

569
00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:27,280
I I found, I found it 
interesting because, yeah, 

570
00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:31,240
because not like, like Strallow 
responded by knocking back the, 

571
00:30:31,720 --> 00:30:35,000
the, the, the question. 
But here's, here's one view on 

572
00:30:35,000 --> 00:30:38,680
the response to that question. 
If there was an inbound NBIO 

573
00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:41,360
before the trading halt, for 
example, that's that's worth a 

574
00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:44,480
bit more then after the trading 
halt, in my opinion, it's, it's 

575
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:47,240
a letter that possibly is 
anchored to a price that's sort 

576
00:30:47,240 --> 00:30:49,480
of much higher than the cap 
raise and higher than it was 

577
00:30:49,480 --> 00:30:51,600
when it went into went into halt
and all that sort of stuff. 

578
00:30:51,760 --> 00:30:54,080
But if the interest has only 
come after the trading halt, 

579
00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:56,720
it's not as promising. 
You know, lots of miners would 

580
00:30:56,720 --> 00:30:59,120
be a bit opportunistic when 
you're you're in a three-week, 

581
00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:01,800
you know, suspension and and 
yet, of course you're pinging 

582
00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:03,480
out a letter depend. 
You don't know how dire it is, 

583
00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:06,920
but you ask for access to a data
room and you know, give me, give

584
00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:09,880
me DDD and maybe I can, you 
know, give you a proposal and 

585
00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:10,960
firm it up and all that sort of 
stuff. 

586
00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:13,520
So I wouldn't be surprised to 
see a lot of people kind of 

587
00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:16,600
opportunistic in that situation.
But if, but it's a different, 

588
00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:19,840
it's a different level of 
firmness and, and, and, and 

589
00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:21,960
seriousness. 
If, if it came before versus 

590
00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:25,600
after. 
And what if it was if it if they

591
00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:29,600
came before the trading halt? 
And what would have prevented 

592
00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:32,480
Darren Stralow from just just 
saying no, we had some before. 

593
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:35,000
So maybe, maybe the inference 
you could have is they could 

594
00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:36,920
have all come after. 
Yeah, yeah. 

595
00:31:37,040 --> 00:31:40,520
And lying, to my knowledge, I 
don't think any strategics are 

596
00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:45,000
being let into this cap raise 
either to try and get a foot on 

597
00:31:45,000 --> 00:31:48,520
it either because competitive 
tension is their best friend at 

598
00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:49,560
the moment. 
Totally. 

599
00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:51,840
And for this. 
And this, this signalling to the

600
00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:54,080
to the to the market that they 
are exploring the options to 

601
00:31:54,080 --> 00:31:56,680
maximise value, right? 
They list 3 advisors that 

602
00:31:56,680 --> 00:31:59,240
they've now got in their court 
to, to, to help them maximize 

603
00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:02,200
values at the inferences, you 
know, at at the right price that

604
00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:04,880
they are, they would consider, 
you know, the a corporate change

605
00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:08,160
of control. 
It just how real the interest is

606
00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:11,240
from third parties, I think 
remains to be seen still. 

607
00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:14,680
And yeah, I like, I do wonder 
what, what price they would have

608
00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:17,120
to raise if they didn't reveal 
that, that they had corporate 

609
00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:18,800
interest. 
But I'm very curious to know 

610
00:32:18,800 --> 00:32:21,360
what you guys think of in terms 
of what the potential corporate 

611
00:32:21,360 --> 00:32:23,440
interest is. 
Who, who would be interested in 

612
00:32:24,080 --> 00:32:28,520
and yeah, who like who, who come
who you know, do you think, do 

613
00:32:28,520 --> 00:32:31,880
you think Bellevue will, will, 
will kind of get engulfed by a 

614
00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:35,280
larger, larger minor with the, 
the the more thorough balance 

615
00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:37,560
sheet to, to absorb some of 
their funding stuff? 

616
00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:39,480
Interesting. 
What you say is like, will there

617
00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:44,800
be like with, you know, the mark
to mark on the hedge book and 

618
00:32:44,800 --> 00:32:47,640
everything like will it be 
competitive or like will it be a

619
00:32:47,640 --> 00:32:51,960
larger minor or will it be a 
smaller minor that might be able

620
00:32:51,960 --> 00:32:54,160
to take a swing of this mate 
like between? 

621
00:32:54,200 --> 00:32:56,600
It caps could, yeah. 
Yeah, like between and some of 

622
00:32:56,600 --> 00:33:00,160
them aren't that small like like
catalysts, like on the smaller 

623
00:33:00,160 --> 00:33:02,960
end, like. 
Yeah, Mark, it'd be. 

624
00:33:03,280 --> 00:33:06,240
A huge, huge, but that's the 
thing, like if there's not heaps

625
00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:10,120
of interest, like might provide 
a opportunity for them like, but

626
00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:13,280
then and then you got all the, 
you know, outrageous. 

627
00:33:14,040 --> 00:33:16,560
You know, they haven't got 
really the geographical 

628
00:33:16,560 --> 00:33:18,280
synergies, but they're, you 
know. 

629
00:33:18,520 --> 00:33:19,560
If they're if they're looking 
at. 

630
00:33:19,560 --> 00:33:22,000
Printing a bit of cash they're. 
Looking at Ravenswood, which, 

631
00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:27,280
which has a lower production 
profile, it has a worse hedge 

632
00:33:27,280 --> 00:33:30,800
book, a worse debt, debt 
situation and even and more 

633
00:33:30,800 --> 00:33:33,560
operational kind of, you know, 
question marks over it and, and 

634
00:33:33,560 --> 00:33:35,120
that and Ravenswood wants 2 
billion. 

635
00:33:35,280 --> 00:33:36,360
Yeah. 
Like if you're Regis, you're 

636
00:33:36,360 --> 00:33:39,880
thinking I could spend, I could 
pay less than that and close out

637
00:33:39,880 --> 00:33:41,480
all the hedges and yada, yada, 
and have this thing. 

638
00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:45,280
So I, I think like if you were 
to look at the two options side 

639
00:33:45,280 --> 00:33:47,920
by side, you go Bellevue. 
But so I wouldn't rule. 

640
00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:49,200
I wouldn't rule Regis out at 
all. 

641
00:33:49,280 --> 00:33:51,160
No, no. 
Before I go on the other ones, 

642
00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:54,040
when you reference 2 billion 
like so after this there's going

643
00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:55,800
to be 1 1/2 billion shares on 
issue. 

644
00:33:56,240 --> 00:34:03,320
So that means I if it got done 
at a dollar, $1.30 would mean 

645
00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:07,400
essentially $2 billion plus the 
hedge book and the debt out of 

646
00:34:07,400 --> 00:34:09,480
the money. 
So it's about a $2.4 billion 

647
00:34:09,480 --> 00:34:14,679
deal equivalent to Spartan for a
a walk up start to potentially 

648
00:34:14,679 --> 00:34:20,000
190,000 oz or 150 to 190,000 
ounces for a 3,000,000 oz 

649
00:34:20,440 --> 00:34:23,639
resource. 
So that's the price like could 

650
00:34:23,639 --> 00:34:27,920
it get done at $1.10, which 
would be a bit below the two 

651
00:34:27,920 --> 00:34:30,600
like about 2 billion once you 
clear everything out. 

652
00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:33,600
So that's the sort of share 
process you're looking at for 

653
00:34:33,600 --> 00:34:36,360
what you know, potentially a 
deal could be done depending on 

654
00:34:36,360 --> 00:34:38,280
where it trades on open 
tomorrow. 

655
00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:41,639
But we've, we've went, went 
through the previous ones as 

656
00:34:41,639 --> 00:34:44,840
well, like gold fields could 
flick it over to Agnew. 

657
00:34:44,840 --> 00:34:50,639
I think, I think it's only a 1.1
million tonne mill. 

658
00:34:50,639 --> 00:34:53,560
I'm not sure if it's expanded, 
but I'll assume that it's 

659
00:34:53,560 --> 00:34:55,000
bigger. 
It must be bigger. 

660
00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:57,480
The with the yeah, chat check 
definitely be down the other 

661
00:34:57,480 --> 00:34:58,560
way. 
It must be bigger. 

662
00:34:58,560 --> 00:35:02,560
Like the, the big ones are 
obviously vault with they're 

663
00:35:02,560 --> 00:35:06,160
expanding to 6,000,000 tonne and
they've just, I think approved 

664
00:35:06,160 --> 00:35:09,880
the $80 million expansion to put
the regrant the ball mill in for

665
00:35:09,880 --> 00:35:11,080
that. 
Because it's just, I think it's 

666
00:35:11,080 --> 00:35:14,800
just one big sag at the moment. 
So that could take it. 

667
00:35:14,800 --> 00:35:17,640
But they've obviously got their 
own hedge book to deal with. 

668
00:35:17,640 --> 00:35:20,880
But you know, you'd think that 
just cleared this out anyway, or

669
00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:22,880
they might just keep it there. 
They love keeping cash. 

670
00:35:24,240 --> 00:35:28,240
Thunderbox, Northern Star. 
That's a very logical one. 

671
00:35:29,680 --> 00:35:33,960
And the degrade deal's about to 
be signed off on anyway. 

672
00:35:33,960 --> 00:35:36,400
My my two things. 
Very is imminent. 

673
00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:38,080
Yeah. 
And I did have a look through 

674
00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:41,880
that and it looked like Northern
Star could they could do 

675
00:35:41,920 --> 00:35:43,880
anything. 
It was degrade that couldn't do 

676
00:35:43,920 --> 00:35:45,960
a deal. 
There there was a materiality 

677
00:35:45,960 --> 00:35:49,760
threshold and it was basically I
think, I think the threshold was

678
00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:52,560
like anything more than a 
billion dollars would it would 

679
00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:57,640
be yeah, like like game to to 
to, to, to material to to do 

680
00:35:57,640 --> 00:36:00,280
another deal it. 
Could degrade approve it but. 

681
00:36:00,720 --> 00:36:02,280
It wasn't even a consent thing. 
It got messy. 

682
00:36:02,280 --> 00:36:03,960
It got messy on that front. 
Yeah, yeah. 

683
00:36:04,720 --> 00:36:06,040
I did. 
I did some control I. 

684
00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:08,920
Think, yeah. 
But the I mean like it's kind of

685
00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:10,640
irrelevant because the deal is 
going to complete soon anyway. 

686
00:36:10,640 --> 00:36:13,520
I do think, I do think that it's
hard to pay more than the 

687
00:36:13,520 --> 00:36:16,560
companies that have synergies. 
So the synergies are Gold Fields

688
00:36:16,560 --> 00:36:19,480
and and Northern Star and you 
might think synergies. 

689
00:36:19,480 --> 00:36:20,760
Is weird. 
Vault and are. 

690
00:36:21,160 --> 00:36:25,200
A good time, yeah, yeah, less 
balance sheet to, to maybe you 

691
00:36:25,200 --> 00:36:26,880
know, splurge with, but 
certainly synergies. 

692
00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:31,280
And then because the synergies 
exist because you've got high 

693
00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:34,200
grade stuff that you're 
processing costs much lower than

694
00:36:34,200 --> 00:36:36,160
putting it through the, you 
know, 1.2 or whatever million 

695
00:36:36,160 --> 00:36:37,600
tonne per random plant that 
Bellevue has. 

696
00:36:37,600 --> 00:36:40,040
If you're, if you're sending it 
to your much larger economies of

697
00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:42,920
scale mill that you've got, you 
know, 50-60 KS down the road. 

698
00:36:43,080 --> 00:36:45,480
Yeah, and they could go. 
They could probably bloody with 

699
00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:48,280
other stuff in the region. 
They could turn that into a toll

700
00:36:48,280 --> 00:36:50,600
trading mill up there. 
You could sell it to someone. 

701
00:36:51,360 --> 00:36:54,960
Vivian comes back online ever. 
Like there's plenty of plenty of

702
00:36:54,960 --> 00:36:57,920
options, but yeah, they're the 
lot. 

703
00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:03,480
I don't, I don't think Genesis, 
geez, you never know. 

704
00:37:03,480 --> 00:37:08,080
But like, considering what they 
paid $140 million for Daisy and 

705
00:37:08,400 --> 00:37:14,360
to set up that whole area up, 
doesn't strike me as a company 

706
00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:17,080
that'll be paying 2 billion for 
something like this. 

707
00:37:17,080 --> 00:37:18,400
I think they're kind of 
cyclical. 

708
00:37:18,680 --> 00:37:24,520
Investing is complete Evo's. 
Are they in harvest mode? 

709
00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:26,800
I'm pretty sure I don't think I.
Don't think they will. 

710
00:37:26,920 --> 00:37:29,680
I don't think they'd go at it. 
Not their MO isn't. 

711
00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:34,440
It Nah, Nah. 
So like yeah, for Northern Star 

712
00:37:34,440 --> 00:37:38,320
lot, they'd probably be able to 
get it all script. 

713
00:37:39,200 --> 00:37:42,400
They they, yeah, yeah, they 
could they. 

714
00:37:42,440 --> 00:37:45,280
Probably. 
I think they'd if they were to 

715
00:37:45,280 --> 00:37:46,680
do it, I think it'd be script, 
right? 

716
00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:48,800
Yeah, similar to what they did 
with. 

717
00:37:49,520 --> 00:37:53,680
Pretty, and it's a pretty safe 
bet to take the script. 

718
00:37:53,680 --> 00:37:57,320
You'd think liquid. 
Very, very potential. 

719
00:37:58,520 --> 00:38:01,640
There's certain people that'll 
be, you know, still at these 

720
00:38:01,640 --> 00:38:06,760
prices having a bit of a win. 
So cash might lead to a tax 

721
00:38:06,760 --> 00:38:08,480
liability. 
You can potentially get rolled 

722
00:38:08,480 --> 00:38:11,640
if you're still bullish. 
The broader gold narrative, you 

723
00:38:11,640 --> 00:38:15,040
know, rollover relief, if it's, 
if it's script, I mean on the 

724
00:38:15,040 --> 00:38:18,720
margins that that ties into it. 
Yeah, I think that's pretty much

725
00:38:18,720 --> 00:38:20,360
everyone. 
I think lower than. 

726
00:38:20,360 --> 00:38:21,760
One, yeah, I agree with you on 
Genesis. 

727
00:38:21,760 --> 00:38:25,360
Yeah, yeah, by the way, I think 
I think if a deal happens, I 

728
00:38:25,360 --> 00:38:27,040
think it's going to be lower 
than 130. 

729
00:38:27,160 --> 00:38:30,880
That's why like just got 
intuition on sort of how, yeah, 

730
00:38:31,400 --> 00:38:33,400
I do think there is there are 
definitely some like kind of 

731
00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:36,520
like I use the word desperate 
mid caps who need need to do a 

732
00:38:36,520 --> 00:38:38,440
deal and a hungry and yadda, 
yadda, yadda. 

733
00:38:38,440 --> 00:38:41,160
And and there's a very realistic
chance that something happens 

734
00:38:41,360 --> 00:38:45,120
with that the cohort, you know, 
but the but the price matters. 

735
00:38:45,120 --> 00:38:46,200
You know, how much you pay does 
matter. 

736
00:38:46,200 --> 00:38:48,600
And even though we anchor to the
share price or the share price 

737
00:38:48,600 --> 00:38:50,840
has come down so much, so a deal
must be more attractive. 

738
00:38:50,840 --> 00:38:53,640
There's a bunch of dilution you 
still got to pay more shares to.

739
00:38:54,120 --> 00:38:56,760
So the quantum you're paying can
still be quite onerous even 

740
00:38:56,760 --> 00:38:57,960
though the share price looks 
lower. 

741
00:38:57,960 --> 00:39:00,840
So, you know, companies are are 
constantly thinking about what 

742
00:39:00,840 --> 00:39:04,640
the total amount they're paying 
is here and, and even though the

743
00:39:04,720 --> 00:39:06,560
the share price has come lower, 
it's still it's. 

744
00:39:06,560 --> 00:39:08,840
Still a big it's a big price tag
you want to be very confident 

745
00:39:08,840 --> 00:39:10,720
that the cash flow is going to 
come from from that investment. 

746
00:39:11,600 --> 00:39:14,640
Would Macquarie have like, 
because Macquarie are holding 

747
00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:18,120
obviously the debt, but the 
bigger quantum is the amount, 

748
00:39:18,120 --> 00:39:20,600
the out of the money hedge book 
liability. 

749
00:39:20,760 --> 00:39:25,160
Would they have a say at all on 
offers? 

750
00:39:25,760 --> 00:39:29,080
Because you know, it's it might 
be in their best interest that a

751
00:39:29,080 --> 00:39:32,840
$1.10 deal gets done to take 
away the risk from them to 

752
00:39:32,960 --> 00:39:35,960
potentially not getting that 
gold in the future is a risk to 

753
00:39:35,960 --> 00:39:37,720
them. 
They wouldn't have a say on on 

754
00:39:37,720 --> 00:39:40,800
offers. 
They do like any deal it'd be 

755
00:39:40,800 --> 00:39:43,840
it'd be subject to, you know, 
certain consents per whatever 

756
00:39:43,840 --> 00:39:47,440
contracts you have in place for 
for a project finance, it depend

757
00:39:47,440 --> 00:39:50,240
what the buyer wants to do. 
Do they want to clean out the 

758
00:39:50,560 --> 00:39:52,800
the hedge book on the 
acquisition or are they keeping 

759
00:39:52,800 --> 00:39:55,200
it in place? 
Either one does does need a 

760
00:39:55,240 --> 00:39:57,040
certain consent. 
But it's it's, you know, it's 

761
00:39:57,320 --> 00:39:59,760
assigning rights to a larger 
than a minor or something, you 

762
00:39:59,760 --> 00:40:01,120
know, aquarium and say yes to 
every day of the week. 

763
00:40:01,120 --> 00:40:01,720
And they're not. 
Yeah. 

764
00:40:01,960 --> 00:40:03,440
Yeah. 
And and it looks like they're, 

765
00:40:04,040 --> 00:40:07,400
they're obviously they've 
signalled that they are very 

766
00:40:07,400 --> 00:40:09,920
amenable to selling it. 
I think that's pretty clear. 

767
00:40:10,360 --> 00:40:12,120
Like which is positive if if if 
true. 

768
00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:16,960
And good from inquiry. 
What about the oh so and it was 

769
00:40:16,960 --> 00:40:20,120
a good question on the investor 
call and it was probably the 

770
00:40:20,120 --> 00:40:23,840
thoughts are why have they 
cleared the hedge book, cleared 

771
00:40:23,840 --> 00:40:27,920
150 a hundred odd out of the 
hedge book and left the debt, 

772
00:40:29,040 --> 00:40:33,600
which would have you done? 
Because the question on the call

773
00:40:33,600 --> 00:40:36,640
was why? 
Why didn't you clear out the 

774
00:40:36,640 --> 00:40:38,920
debt? 
Because then you don't have, you

775
00:40:38,920 --> 00:40:41,760
know, Macquarie doesn't have 
security on the assets. 

776
00:40:42,160 --> 00:40:48,480
And Darren responded saying, 
look, that's because we've still

777
00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:50,640
got the marked mark on the on 
the hedge book. 

778
00:40:51,120 --> 00:40:53,720
They still, which is what did 
you say it was? 

779
00:40:53,880 --> 00:40:57,880
After they paid back, they also 
left 350 million at 5200 Yeah 

780
00:40:58,240 --> 00:41:00,400
prices. 
Which means they've still got 

781
00:41:00,520 --> 00:41:03,680
security on the asset. 
So look, because I have, I told 

782
00:41:03,680 --> 00:41:07,080
just me what the analogy for 
hedging that I've known for ages

783
00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:09,080
tell me. 
I've known this for ages. 

784
00:41:09,080 --> 00:41:11,560
I can't believe I haven't 
mentioned it yet. 100% have not 

785
00:41:11,560 --> 00:41:15,440
talked to. 
So like I enlighten us, these 

786
00:41:15,440 --> 00:41:21,400
Ford contracts are the dead set 
equivalent of short selling 

787
00:41:22,000 --> 00:41:23,880
effectively. 
So Macquarie are short selling 

788
00:41:23,880 --> 00:41:27,480
gold and to Bellevue for these 
contracts. 

789
00:41:27,480 --> 00:41:31,800
So all, all that hedge book 
that's in place, Macquarie have 

790
00:41:31,800 --> 00:41:37,480
borrowed it from Central bank or
bloody friggin Fort Knox or, or 

791
00:41:37,480 --> 00:41:40,960
somewhere, borrowed it, sold it 
into the spot market, got a heap

792
00:41:40,960 --> 00:41:44,320
of cash for it, put that on 
deposit, which is earning 

793
00:41:44,320 --> 00:41:47,680
interest. 
And then those contracts are 

794
00:41:47,680 --> 00:41:51,160
what Bellevue has to the gold 
that has to be given back to 

795
00:41:51,160 --> 00:41:53,600
Macquarie so they can give it 
back to the bank. 

796
00:41:54,040 --> 00:41:57,600
So when they say like they're 
obviously not making money on 

797
00:41:57,880 --> 00:42:00,920
the gold price, but it's like 
when that is why they've got 

798
00:42:00,920 --> 00:42:05,480
security on the asset because if
you know, very obviously like if

799
00:42:05,480 --> 00:42:09,960
Bellevue stops producing, 
Macquarie have to go into the 

800
00:42:09,960 --> 00:42:12,240
market and buy all that gold 
themselves. 

801
00:42:12,240 --> 00:42:14,000
That's on the asset side of 
their Ledger. 

802
00:42:14,080 --> 00:42:17,760
On the liability side is their 
obligation to return the gold at

803
00:42:17,760 --> 00:42:21,760
those predefined points in time 
which they require Bellevue to 

804
00:42:21,760 --> 00:42:23,760
deliver. 
Yeah, those obligations. 

805
00:42:23,800 --> 00:42:28,280
And hence the decision for 
because clear in the debt is 

806
00:42:28,280 --> 00:42:31,920
like whatever you've cleared the
debt, the debt isn't going to 

807
00:42:31,920 --> 00:42:34,640
grow that much. 
But as you said before, that 

808
00:42:34,640 --> 00:42:38,200
hedge book liability, if the 
gold price keeps going up could 

809
00:42:38,200 --> 00:42:39,840
keep growing and growing and 
growing. 

810
00:42:40,080 --> 00:42:43,560
Hence, keeping the debt, 
removing the hedge liability for

811
00:42:43,560 --> 00:42:47,440
this year, for the remainder of 
this year means they've got more

812
00:42:47,440 --> 00:42:52,360
of a runway to get free cash, 
keep the operation sustainable, 

813
00:42:52,760 --> 00:42:54,320
deliver the gold into the hedge 
book. 

814
00:42:54,320 --> 00:43:00,680
Less risk of the worst thing 
happening of going into VI or 

815
00:43:00,680 --> 00:43:04,640
like going into receivership or 
something where Macquarie have 

816
00:43:04,640 --> 00:43:07,960
to go into the market, use the 
security of the asset to buy all

817
00:43:07,960 --> 00:43:09,920
that gold back to give it to the
central bank. 

818
00:43:10,120 --> 00:43:12,680
So that's why they've done it. 
Yeah. 

819
00:43:12,960 --> 00:43:14,240
And I think. 
All my own idea. 

820
00:43:14,240 --> 00:43:17,520
We talk about, we talk about 
hedges, right heaps, but the 

821
00:43:17,520 --> 00:43:21,120
gold price going up is still 
good for for Bellevue it's still

822
00:43:21,120 --> 00:43:24,160
much more if they can obviously 
deliver the answers it's. 

823
00:43:24,160 --> 00:43:25,080
Great. 
If they can. 

824
00:43:25,160 --> 00:43:27,560
Yeah, yeah. 
Deliver the answers. 

825
00:43:27,720 --> 00:43:31,640
But it obviously increases the 
risk to Macquarie if they don't 

826
00:43:31,640 --> 00:43:33,400
deliver the answers Exactly, 
exactly. 

827
00:43:33,800 --> 00:43:36,120
For sure, for sure. 
Now I like that, Maddie. 

828
00:43:36,560 --> 00:43:38,840
Yeah, no worries. 
I'm here all week boys, buddy. 

829
00:43:38,840 --> 00:43:43,080
Just a wealth of knowledge. 
Yeah. 

830
00:43:43,560 --> 00:43:46,280
I've been, I've been bloody 
years in everyone else's ideas 

831
00:43:46,280 --> 00:43:48,240
for the last two years. 
I'm not going to stop now. 

832
00:43:49,760 --> 00:43:53,000
Quickest way to learn mate, to 
to frame your question as well, 

833
00:43:53,000 --> 00:43:57,320
but going roughly a year back or
I guess nine months or so back 

834
00:43:57,600 --> 00:44:01,000
to when they did the last raise 
and they they cleared out debt, 

835
00:44:01,000 --> 00:44:04,520
they would have had to be paying
on average 15,000,000 bucks a 

836
00:44:04,520 --> 00:44:07,680
quarter. 
You know, they paid out $100 

837
00:44:07,680 --> 00:44:09,760
million of the 200 million in 
debt. 

838
00:44:09,760 --> 00:44:13,040
So that kind of would have, 
would have stung them a bit at 

839
00:44:13,040 --> 00:44:15,120
the time. 
They had the same decision last 

840
00:44:15,120 --> 00:44:16,760
year and they went the debt 
route. 

841
00:44:17,120 --> 00:44:19,080
Well, I suppose it's been a 
perfect storm, hasn't it? 

842
00:44:19,080 --> 00:44:24,000
So when not an unperfect storm 
from when they've when they took

843
00:44:24,000 --> 00:44:27,680
that debt to OK, we're going to 
go down the debt route, we're 

844
00:44:27,680 --> 00:44:30,000
going to have the least amount 
of dilution. 

845
00:44:30,000 --> 00:44:32,320
We're going to get a great 
earnings per share. 

846
00:44:32,320 --> 00:44:35,720
We're going to have a bloody 
this great rated company on an 

847
00:44:36,160 --> 00:44:41,920
EBITDA multiple gold was, you 
know, those $2800 hedges, they 

848
00:44:41,920 --> 00:44:44,320
were above the gold price at 
that time. 

849
00:44:44,480 --> 00:44:47,440
So everyone just forgets. 
It's like, oh shit, why'd you 

850
00:44:47,440 --> 00:44:49,240
hedge at that price? 
That's what the bloody gold 

851
00:44:49,240 --> 00:44:51,840
price was. 
It was bloody lower and it was 

852
00:44:51,840 --> 00:44:54,920
in a lower interest rate 
environment, which mean 

853
00:44:55,000 --> 00:44:58,920
obviously the hedges were at not
as much of A markup to the spot 

854
00:44:58,920 --> 00:45:03,840
price because because they hold 
the money on on account, higher 

855
00:45:03,840 --> 00:45:06,480
interest rates means they could 
give higher Ford contract 

856
00:45:06,480 --> 00:45:08,640
prices. 
But now gold prices going up 

857
00:45:08,640 --> 00:45:13,280
shit loads and interest rates 
have gone up shit loads, which 

858
00:45:13,280 --> 00:45:15,600
means it's more impactful on the
debt as well. 

859
00:45:15,600 --> 00:45:19,440
So it's just really snowballed 
into what we see today, 

860
00:45:19,720 --> 00:45:22,920
unfortunately for them. 
Yeah, it's fascinating to think 

861
00:45:22,920 --> 00:45:26,600
that the the, the, the hedge 
liability that will even be 

862
00:45:26,600 --> 00:45:29,800
remaining after this is, is, you
know, multiples of what the 

863
00:45:29,800 --> 00:45:31,720
initial project finance facility
was like. 

864
00:45:31,720 --> 00:45:34,000
Yeah, it's remarkable how that 
all that kind of works. 

865
00:45:34,000 --> 00:45:35,840
Yeah. 
And that's the, well, that's 

866
00:45:35,840 --> 00:45:40,480
the, the unfortunate thing like 
because this could have been as 

867
00:45:40,480 --> 00:45:43,800
we're like we're talking about 
it getting sold at $1.10 dollar 

868
00:45:43,800 --> 00:45:48,440
30 or or whatever. 
Like, but like it's just, yeah, 

869
00:45:48,440 --> 00:45:52,640
it's just, it's unfortunate to 
see if like if they did execute,

870
00:45:52,920 --> 00:45:56,200
did buy off the debt without 
rising like delivered into that 

871
00:45:56,200 --> 00:45:59,400
hedge book over a longer term. 
Like this could have been a 

872
00:45:59,400 --> 00:46:02,120
freaking cute. 
Like this could have been a 

873
00:46:02,120 --> 00:46:06,200
three $4.00 stock with that 
management like a management 

874
00:46:06,200 --> 00:46:08,440
premium and delivery and 
everything. 

875
00:46:08,440 --> 00:46:10,880
It just unfortunately didn't 
happen. 

876
00:46:10,880 --> 00:46:17,120
So I can really go either way. 
Like so, yeah, I'm sure the 

877
00:46:17,120 --> 00:46:18,720
shareholders were wishing that 
too. 

878
00:46:21,440 --> 00:46:24,600
For sure, we'll see what the 
future holds for the the new 

879
00:46:24,600 --> 00:46:26,800
shareholders sort of be 
interesting with those sort of 

880
00:46:26,800 --> 00:46:31,800
carrots they've dangled. 
So do you reckon this is the 

881
00:46:32,600 --> 00:46:36,400
final reset? 
This is this is the biggest 

882
00:46:36,400 --> 00:46:38,840
reset? 
Well, no, I hope so. 

883
00:46:38,880 --> 00:46:42,680
No, sorry, I don't think it is 
because this is the reset that 

884
00:46:42,680 --> 00:46:46,840
should have happened when they 
raised last year instead of 

885
00:46:47,040 --> 00:46:50,800
releasing that 250,000 oz plan. 
This should have been it should 

886
00:46:50,800 --> 00:46:51,880
have. 
This should have happened at 

887
00:46:51,880 --> 00:46:55,640
diggers before diggers. 
Like when they said that we're 

888
00:46:55,640 --> 00:46:58,480
just revising. 
It's going to be 190,000 oz 

889
00:46:58,480 --> 00:47:00,720
mine. 
It's not a 200,000 oz mine. 

890
00:47:01,040 --> 00:47:03,080
It's 150 next year. 
Like this is what should have 

891
00:47:03,080 --> 00:47:06,360
happened then. 
So it's but it's a bigger reset 

892
00:47:06,360 --> 00:47:08,560
compared to what they said they 
were going to do, which was much

893
00:47:08,560 --> 00:47:12,280
higher. 
But is it the final one still 40

894
00:47:12,840 --> 00:47:15,960
what, 47 1/2 thousand ounces a 
year? 

895
00:47:16,760 --> 00:47:21,040
1/4 from FY20 7 onwards. 
It's tricky. 

896
00:47:21,040 --> 00:47:23,360
It's tricky to have confidence 
and say yes, because you do want

897
00:47:23,360 --> 00:47:26,880
to believe like the the 
revisions every time, but then 

898
00:47:26,880 --> 00:47:30,720
you like there are there seems 
to be just, you know, misses 

899
00:47:30,720 --> 00:47:32,680
that that weren't foreseen and 
things like that. 

900
00:47:32,680 --> 00:47:36,000
So you want you want to you want
to think the operational kind of

901
00:47:36,000 --> 00:47:38,840
question marks are are in the 
background now. 

902
00:47:39,000 --> 00:47:42,680
You really do want to believe 
that I'm, I think like because 

903
00:47:42,680 --> 00:47:44,080
of that they've alleviated the 
short term. 

904
00:47:44,080 --> 00:47:46,080
The short term looks, looks 
reasonable. 

905
00:47:46,080 --> 00:47:49,880
You know, like I do worry a 
little bit about that 2027 

906
00:47:49,880 --> 00:47:52,360
period when you've got more 
hedging and and the debt 

907
00:47:52,360 --> 00:47:55,120
repayments kind of kick in. 
I think it all depends. 

908
00:47:55,160 --> 00:47:59,120
I think it depends if Bellevue 
kind of keep persisting on on 

909
00:47:59,120 --> 00:48:01,160
their own or if, or if they get 
taken over. 

910
00:48:01,160 --> 00:48:02,440
If they get taken over, it's the
last reset. 

911
00:48:02,440 --> 00:48:05,360
If they assist on their own, 
there might be some some some 

912
00:48:05,360 --> 00:48:09,000
some more kind of things to face
as the the cash flow looks 

913
00:48:09,080 --> 00:48:11,480
compressed in that year. 
And when if they get taken over,

914
00:48:11,480 --> 00:48:13,320
no one's looking at it as much. 
Exactly. 

915
00:48:15,000 --> 00:48:17,120
It's mixed in with seven other 
fucking assets. 

916
00:48:17,120 --> 00:48:19,840
It's all, yeah, it's all good 
sticking along. 

917
00:48:21,160 --> 00:48:23,560
But I I like how it's 150 next 
year. 

918
00:48:23,760 --> 00:48:26,960
Like that's that indicates to 
me, right? 

919
00:48:26,960 --> 00:48:29,760
They're probably going to know 
they're dropping a jumbo off and

920
00:48:29,760 --> 00:48:33,200
everything, but it's like 
hopefully they get a bit ahead. 

921
00:48:33,200 --> 00:48:35,240
Sounds like a lot of the 
critical infrastructure is 

922
00:48:35,240 --> 00:48:41,360
probably in just cut it comes. 
It's going to come down to like 

923
00:48:42,080 --> 00:48:44,640
obviously they they've alluded 
to the mining practices. 

924
00:48:45,440 --> 00:48:48,840
Once they tidy that up, then 
it's up to the ore body. 

925
00:48:48,840 --> 00:48:50,920
It's got to be up to how that 
ore body behaves. 

926
00:48:50,920 --> 00:48:54,920
If like the if there's many 
irregularities, like as long as 

927
00:48:54,920 --> 00:48:58,720
your body stay on the ore top 
level, top level and bottom 

928
00:48:58,720 --> 00:49:01,440
level, what happens in the 
middle is out of your control. 

929
00:49:01,680 --> 00:49:06,080
So as long as all that is done 
spot on and slowed down, which 

930
00:49:06,080 --> 00:49:09,080
sounds like they're gonna like 
it's up to the gold gods. 

931
00:49:09,080 --> 00:49:15,280
Then sounds like they've got the
process and plant sort of the 

932
00:49:15,280 --> 00:49:18,520
upgrades and everything like the
oxygen circuit that they talked 

933
00:49:18,520 --> 00:49:22,000
about a lot that talks about the
increased sulfides and the need 

934
00:49:22,000 --> 00:49:26,160
for the oxygen circuit to 
alleviate the higher use of 

935
00:49:26,240 --> 00:49:30,480
cyanide, which is copper. 
They don't say copper, they say 

936
00:49:30,480 --> 00:49:33,440
sulfides, but it is because of 
copper in the sulfides it 

937
00:49:33,440 --> 00:49:34,800
caused. 
So that's what the oxygen 

938
00:49:34,800 --> 00:49:36,720
circuits trying to. 
So it sounds like they've 

939
00:49:36,720 --> 00:49:40,000
gotten, it's manageable. 
The recoveries are going to be 

940
00:49:40,400 --> 00:49:44,400
hopefully maintained it a lot 
higher and then the recovery 

941
00:49:44,400 --> 00:49:47,320
issues before a lot of it was 
because of this fucking rush, 

942
00:49:47,320 --> 00:49:49,760
rush, rush trying to get the 
quarterly numbers out, throwing 

943
00:49:49,760 --> 00:49:54,400
a shit load of in cases, 
throwing a shit load high grade 

944
00:49:54,400 --> 00:49:56,720
in at once. 
And then you you know, you're 

945
00:49:56,720 --> 00:49:58,960
pissing a lot out to the 
tailings because you're trying 

946
00:49:58,960 --> 00:50:07,600
to get the gold quickly. 
So yeah, I, yeah, I reckon I 

947
00:50:07,600 --> 00:50:11,240
don't know, I'm saying 180,000 
sustainably. 

948
00:50:14,240 --> 00:50:15,720
Seems like a good spot to leave 
it. 

949
00:50:15,760 --> 00:50:18,600
Nothing like. 
That, yeah, I think, I think 

950
00:50:18,600 --> 00:50:20,080
we'll, we'll see how they go 
against that. 

951
00:50:20,320 --> 00:50:25,040
Who do you reckon is going to 
come with it, themselves or 

952
00:50:25,040 --> 00:50:27,160
which other? 
Come on, we're going to come on 

953
00:50:27,160 --> 00:50:28,360
years. 
We've got to start throwing some

954
00:50:28,360 --> 00:50:31,720
darts as well, boys. 
I. 

955
00:50:32,080 --> 00:50:33,440
Who's going to be the final 
buyer? 

956
00:50:33,640 --> 00:50:36,320
Who's going to be running 
Bellevue in FY20 7? 

957
00:50:38,040 --> 00:50:40,680
Northern Star. 
That's a good one. 

958
00:50:43,000 --> 00:50:44,240
Is it cheating if I say the 
same? 

959
00:50:44,240 --> 00:50:49,360
Do I have to go different? 
Northern Star seems the most 

960
00:50:49,360 --> 00:50:51,600
logical. 
Oh, Chuck in Goldfield's just to

961
00:50:53,120 --> 00:50:57,120
just to spice it up, but I think
that's a rough probability. 

962
00:50:57,160 --> 00:51:01,400
But Ruffy would be Regis. 
I'm gonna arcane I'm. 

963
00:51:01,880 --> 00:51:04,760
Gonna throw. 
That's the hardest thing though.

964
00:51:04,960 --> 00:51:10,080
Like the reason I'm going 
against vault is the whole 

965
00:51:10,080 --> 00:51:13,120
succession plan of that business
probably relying on maybe 

966
00:51:13,120 --> 00:51:18,960
Genesis, which take over from 
Luke Tonkin, unless Luke has a 

967
00:51:18,960 --> 00:51:25,080
swing at this and then maybe 
makes himself more amenable to 

968
00:51:25,080 --> 00:51:30,120
Genesis or they he might he 
might just go forever. 

969
00:51:30,720 --> 00:51:35,720
I think vaults the dark horse on
this and make a lot of sense for

970
00:51:35,720 --> 00:51:39,520
that to go down to their mill. 
I didn't need some upgrades and 

971
00:51:39,520 --> 00:51:40,680
everything. 
I don't know if it's got an 

972
00:51:40,680 --> 00:51:46,120
oxygen circuit or Yeah Vault, 
but I reckon Northern stuff all 

973
00:51:50,000 --> 00:51:51,800
righty. 
All righty, let's thank our 

974
00:51:51,800 --> 00:51:55,000
awesome partners, I reckon. 
Get your tickets. 

975
00:51:55,000 --> 00:51:56,480
Remilius hasn't even got a 
mention. 

976
00:51:56,840 --> 00:51:59,760
Yeah, they got a great project 
they've. 

977
00:51:59,760 --> 00:52:01,800
Got their hands full. 
God that could be a real dark 

978
00:52:01,800 --> 00:52:04,400
horse. 
Righto. 

979
00:52:04,400 --> 00:52:06,360
Let's take the partners. 
What mate? 

980
00:52:06,640 --> 00:52:09,800
Bloody the all underground 
operators is finished. 

981
00:52:10,000 --> 00:52:14,600
GRX conference is coming up. 
Brisbane May 20 to 22nd. 

982
00:52:15,080 --> 00:52:17,280
Oh God, I should be recovered by
then. 

983
00:52:17,560 --> 00:52:19,720
Can't wait. 
The centre of tech and 

984
00:52:19,720 --> 00:52:24,200
innovation discount code on 
LinkedIn on in the show notes. 

985
00:52:24,280 --> 00:52:27,680
Make sure you grab on it. 
There are other partners I 

986
00:52:27,680 --> 00:52:29,760
haven't said these guys for a 
week of being devoured. 

987
00:52:29,960 --> 00:52:33,160
Mineral mining services grounded
sandy ground sports ARA 

988
00:52:33,160 --> 00:52:39,200
insurance K drill WA waterboards
quattro kci black diamond 

989
00:52:39,200 --> 00:52:42,640
drilling services cross boundary
energy O doro boys O doro. 

990
00:52:43,360 --> 00:52:45,920
The information contained in 
this episode of Money of Mine is

991
00:52:45,920 --> 00:52:48,120
of general nature only and does 
not take into account the 

992
00:52:48,120 --> 00:52:51,720
objectives, financial situation 
or needs of any particular 

993
00:52:51,720 --> 00:52:53,760
person. 
Before making any investment 

994
00:52:53,760 --> 00:52:56,840
decision, you should consult 
with your financial advisor and 

995
00:52:56,960 --> 00:52:59,960
consider how appropriate the 
advice is to your objectives, 

996
00:53:00,120 --> 00:53:02,160
financial situation and needs.
