1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,320 Right eye money viters buddy trap. 2 00:00:02,320 --> 00:00:04,440 Your screen here says it all for today. 3 00:00:04,880 --> 00:00:08,600 Bloodbath mate, say bloodbath today there is a very few 4 00:00:08,880 --> 00:00:11,960 companies with a little green square there, which tells me 5 00:00:12,360 --> 00:00:13,560 it's a bad day the. Market. 6 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:17,600 It reminds me of that movie V for Vendetta where it's just all 7 00:00:17,600 --> 00:00:19,680 black and white and then just red blood everywhere. 8 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:22,160 I can't say I ever watched that 10. 9 00:00:22,560 --> 00:00:25,520 Mate, it's just, it's just that go, go Aurelia. 10 00:00:25,800 --> 00:00:28,120 Yeah, up 10%. And this is just these 11 00:00:28,240 --> 00:00:29,960 oscillated greens look pretty cool. 12 00:00:31,640 --> 00:00:33,440 This is just the miners as well, right? 13 00:00:33,440 --> 00:00:38,720 So you can picture a very similar graphic for the whole 14 00:00:38,720 --> 00:00:41,640 ASX and most of world markets as well. 15 00:00:41,640 --> 00:00:45,520 It's not not been a a great day for the old share market. 16 00:00:46,200 --> 00:00:49,000 Yeah, I bet your stockbrokers wish they were like Trump and 17 00:00:49,000 --> 00:00:51,160 they could just say something and move the market. 18 00:00:53,240 --> 00:00:54,880 Right boys? What have we got? 19 00:00:54,880 --> 00:00:57,840 We got Remilius Mount Magnet playing update today. 20 00:00:57,840 --> 00:00:59,000 What have you got? Yeah. 21 00:00:59,040 --> 00:01:01,160 I mean, I guess that's one of the, one of the stocks that is 22 00:01:01,520 --> 00:01:03,720 most down today is Remilius. Yeah. 23 00:01:03,760 --> 00:01:06,720 Another one that is most down is, is, is nickel mine. 24 00:01:06,720 --> 00:01:09,040 So I'm going to talk about them and some potential royalty 25 00:01:09,040 --> 00:01:10,400 changes on the way to to them and. 26 00:01:11,040 --> 00:01:14,480 We're going to talk about Cobalt, the DRC and a bit of a 27 00:01:14,480 --> 00:01:18,760 tie in with the LSE as well. Jeez, go love it. 28 00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:20,760 It's all happening. Let's start in our patch, 29 00:01:20,800 --> 00:01:22,040 though. Maddie Remelius. 30 00:01:22,600 --> 00:01:26,160 Oh, you'd say like my patch considering I've got no idea 31 00:01:26,160 --> 00:01:28,880 internationally so we'll I'll stick to. 32 00:01:29,200 --> 00:01:31,760 Me, we can educate each other, mate. 33 00:01:32,200 --> 00:01:35,600 So yeah, Remelius has said there, I think this graph says 34 00:01:35,600 --> 00:01:37,400 down 14%. I think last time we checked 35 00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:40,760 they were down about 16%. Obviously everything is down, 36 00:01:40,760 --> 00:01:42,600 but they've outperformed the down. 37 00:01:42,600 --> 00:01:47,480 So they released their new, it's hard to hard to win in mining, 38 00:01:47,480 --> 00:01:49,120 isn't it? They're always being questioned 39 00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:52,560 about mine life and now they've released a 17 year plan for 40 00:01:52,560 --> 00:01:54,360 Mount Magnet and they've been hammered for it. 41 00:01:54,360 --> 00:01:57,320 So they're probably like, oh, you can't win with this market. 42 00:01:58,000 --> 00:02:02,240 What were the the the features that were most pronounced in in 43 00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:04,560 the commentary and and your sort of analysis mate that. 44 00:02:04,560 --> 00:02:08,160 Yeah, well, like you, you if you look at the it's all about 45 00:02:08,160 --> 00:02:11,880 comparing these numbers to what they released in the previous 46 00:02:12,800 --> 00:02:14,640 sort of long term plan for Mount Magnet. 47 00:02:14,640 --> 00:02:18,360 So they're saying now 17 year period, 2.1 million oz. 48 00:02:18,600 --> 00:02:21,240 The the big changes and the change that they hadn't 49 00:02:21,360 --> 00:02:25,080 considered before, which has sort of changed pre production 50 00:02:25,080 --> 00:02:29,640 and everything is the pit cut back at Erinitis. 51 00:02:29,880 --> 00:02:34,360 So they've effectively committed to doing a massive bloody cut 52 00:02:34,360 --> 00:02:38,000 back there, extending the life of that pit, delaying the 53 00:02:38,000 --> 00:02:41,760 underground and avoiding sterilizing or so it's obviously 54 00:02:41,760 --> 00:02:45,960 impacted them in the short term with the answer profile also 55 00:02:46,920 --> 00:02:49,720 really blown out the pre production capital, but we'll 56 00:02:49,720 --> 00:02:53,800 talk about that in detail. And yeah, so it's but there's a 57 00:02:53,800 --> 00:02:57,880 lot of little gaps to fill and there's probably some read 58 00:02:57,880 --> 00:03:01,440 through of what their intentions are going to be on possibly the 59 00:03:01,440 --> 00:03:03,200 deal front. It's pretty gonna be pretty 60 00:03:03,200 --> 00:03:06,040 obvious when I show you what their incentive will be. 61 00:03:06,320 --> 00:03:08,880 So we'll go through it. It's bloody very, very 62 00:03:08,880 --> 00:03:10,880 interesting bit of value wiped out. 63 00:03:11,160 --> 00:03:16,720 So as I said, 680,000 oz pit cut back and there was a that's 64 00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:20,520 replacing this 280,000 oz underground that they were going 65 00:03:20,520 --> 00:03:24,880 to essentially earlier. So you look here upfront capital 66 00:03:24,880 --> 00:03:28,680 of 15 mil, but pre production costs of 336 mil. 67 00:03:28,680 --> 00:03:35,320 So effectively sign the pit cut back is 336 mil of cap like 68 00:03:35,320 --> 00:03:37,960 CapEx. But the I guess the thing that I 69 00:03:37,960 --> 00:03:41,920 talked about in the call which it it will become a bit of an 70 00:03:41,920 --> 00:03:44,400 accounting thing with all in sustaining. 71 00:03:44,400 --> 00:03:48,040 So they're they're classing that pit cut back if you scroll a bit 72 00:03:48,040 --> 00:03:51,240 down at the cross section as pre production capital. 73 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:53,360 But it is going through low grade. 74 00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:58,760 So it would normally be classed as an OpEx but there is lower 75 00:03:58,760 --> 00:04:02,160 grade material that they will be mining and will be processing. 76 00:04:02,160 --> 00:04:04,120 But it is classed as pre production. 77 00:04:04,400 --> 00:04:06,520 So it's a bit of a bit of an accounting thing. 78 00:04:06,520 --> 00:04:10,200 So I like that whole 3. It's essentially that 300 odd 79 00:04:10,200 --> 00:04:13,840 mil of cut back is not just 0g per tonne. 80 00:04:13,960 --> 00:04:17,399 Can you give us a a ballpark of what what sort of grey dirt 81 00:04:17,399 --> 00:04:18,320 they're going through? Will it? 82 00:04:18,320 --> 00:04:21,200 Well, yeah, if you look at the cross section here like it's you 83 00:04:21,200 --> 00:04:25,400 know point the green bits are .3 to .5, yeah, yellow bits are 84 00:04:25,400 --> 00:04:29,640 sort of half to 1. So it's sub 1g dirt and a lot 85 00:04:29,640 --> 00:04:31,960 lower grade and there's different patches of it. 86 00:04:31,960 --> 00:04:36,600 So it's how that'll all be handled on the all in sustaining 87 00:04:36,600 --> 00:04:39,600 cost front. So it's not like complete waste. 88 00:04:39,760 --> 00:04:42,480 But you know, the comments were, it's like look, we could have 89 00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:47,720 gone underground earlier and we could have like sterilised, like 90 00:04:47,720 --> 00:04:52,120 to think about the mine plan, you know, from sort of 27 91 00:04:52,120 --> 00:04:55,560 onwards, 'cause you can see on here like FY20 7 on this current 92 00:04:55,560 --> 00:05:01,120 mine plan, root drops from 200 to 136,000 oz for the annual oz 93 00:05:01,120 --> 00:05:03,880 output for the group. So that's obviously when the, 94 00:05:04,120 --> 00:05:06,080 the cutback and everything's gonna kick in. 95 00:05:06,280 --> 00:05:09,120 So, but they've obviously said, right, if we do the cutback, 96 00:05:09,120 --> 00:05:12,680 we're not gonna sterilise as much to in the long term. 97 00:05:12,800 --> 00:05:17,320 And we're setting it up to be a, a 17 year plan for what they've 98 00:05:17,320 --> 00:05:20,600 got at the moment. So it's, yeah, they're, they're, 99 00:05:20,680 --> 00:05:25,080 they're taking a short term pain like, oh, essentially like over 100 00:05:25,080 --> 00:05:28,120 a few years pain for the mount magnet hub for a longer term 101 00:05:28,120 --> 00:05:33,600 view on getting the most out of the ore body, which is some 102 00:05:33,640 --> 00:05:36,320 something you don't really see actually, like the, as always 103 00:05:36,320 --> 00:05:40,040 said, the best between the client, the contractor and the 104 00:05:40,040 --> 00:05:41,480 asset. It's hard to get 100% 105 00:05:41,480 --> 00:05:43,560 utilisation out of more than one of them. 106 00:05:43,760 --> 00:05:46,360 So what's best for the ore body ain't best for the share market 107 00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:49,640 sometimes. So on a short term frame, So, 108 00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:51,920 and they're also upgrading the mill. 109 00:05:52,120 --> 00:05:53,880 So it's currently 2,000,000 tonne. 110 00:05:53,880 --> 00:05:58,640 I'm pretty sure based on soft dirt, because it's very hard 111 00:05:58,640 --> 00:06:01,080 dirt at mount magnet. You'll get all the bomb ball 112 00:06:01,080 --> 00:06:04,120 index was historically it said 30. 113 00:06:04,560 --> 00:06:06,240 That's saying at the moment it's about 20. 114 00:06:06,240 --> 00:06:08,120 So that's like on the very hard scale. 115 00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:11,760 So they're saying they're going to, they're going to add a 116 00:06:13,480 --> 00:06:16,280 bigger crusher, a sag mill, bigger ball mill. 117 00:06:16,600 --> 00:06:19,200 And so it'll effectively treat two and a half million tonne of 118 00:06:19,200 --> 00:06:23,160 hard dirt all the way up to 3,000,000 tonne of soft dirt and 119 00:06:23,160 --> 00:06:28,960 everything in between. So getting oxide material and 120 00:06:28,960 --> 00:06:33,640 you can see how much the oxide material drops off following 121 00:06:33,640 --> 00:06:35,760 that. Once I get deeper in the pit, 122 00:06:36,440 --> 00:06:38,920 there's some big gaps of where they need some oxide dirt to 123 00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:40,080 fill. So I think that's where the 124 00:06:40,080 --> 00:06:41,440 appetite's gonna come. What do you? 125 00:06:41,440 --> 00:06:44,280 Think in there, Maddie. Oh mate, take your pick around 126 00:06:44,280 --> 00:06:48,360 the area essentially. Who Who knows, who knows? 127 00:06:48,360 --> 00:06:53,400 We know they're pretty active on the deal front usually and I 128 00:06:53,400 --> 00:06:56,440 think there's this is the base case of what they've got at the 129 00:06:56,440 --> 00:06:59,160 moment. Doesn't discount what is around 130 00:06:59,400 --> 00:07:02,160 the area. And we know when we say the 131 00:07:02,200 --> 00:07:06,600 area, we know Remelius trucks dirt like so they're the area 132 00:07:06,600 --> 00:07:10,320 can spend bloody 200 two 100K radius easily. 133 00:07:10,320 --> 00:07:13,440 And they'll they'll track a dirt because the incremental value 134 00:07:13,440 --> 00:07:18,080 they'll get out of increasing throughput from 2 1/2 to 2.8 135 00:07:18,640 --> 00:07:22,080 with some oxide dirt that they can feed through will be where 136 00:07:22,080 --> 00:07:25,200 the benefit will come. So who knows what they'll what 137 00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:30,000 they'll look at. So yeah, it's the how do you how 138 00:07:30,000 --> 00:07:31,960 do you predict a bloody 17 year mine plan? 139 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:34,040 You do it the best you can. You say like, oh, they're all in 140 00:07:34,040 --> 00:07:37,920 sustaining cost spikes in FY20 9, but you just don't know 141 00:07:37,920 --> 00:07:39,880 what's going to be in the portfolio then. 142 00:07:39,880 --> 00:07:43,080 But they've taken AI like that. They've taken a long term view 143 00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:45,280 of the ore body to set that up for long term. 144 00:07:45,280 --> 00:07:47,520 They've got half a billion in cash. 145 00:07:48,000 --> 00:07:52,840 You got 400 million in Spartan shares at at the moment. 146 00:07:54,520 --> 00:07:56,920 What they do with Spartan shares? 147 00:07:57,240 --> 00:07:59,840 Oh nice. Like I, I would think looking at 148 00:07:59,840 --> 00:08:03,560 this, adding the Spartan dirt to be great because it lifts the 149 00:08:03,560 --> 00:08:05,960 grade. But are they going to cough up 150 00:08:06,480 --> 00:08:09,400 in whatever shape or form that amount of money to get the 151 00:08:09,400 --> 00:08:11,400 Spartan dirt? Probably thinking not. 152 00:08:11,640 --> 00:08:16,040 The easier win for them would be acquiring some oxide material 153 00:08:16,040 --> 00:08:19,840 from somewhere, some easy wind pits to feed in and offset the 154 00:08:19,840 --> 00:08:22,600 hardness of the mount, the Erinitus dirt. 155 00:08:22,600 --> 00:08:25,680 So in the future, so do you remember? 156 00:08:25,680 --> 00:08:28,680 Do you remember when they released the plan last time 157 00:08:28,680 --> 00:08:32,960 around Mount Magnet it it actually came amidst the the 158 00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:36,320 media speculation that they were going to do a deal with Corolla. 159 00:08:36,320 --> 00:08:37,880 They were in exclusivity with Corolla. 160 00:08:38,080 --> 00:08:41,280 Then they released their long term Mount Magnet mine plan and 161 00:08:41,280 --> 00:08:44,120 at the time I thought their rationale for releasing it was, 162 00:08:45,920 --> 00:08:48,440 yeah, it was actually related to, you know, just just just 163 00:08:48,560 --> 00:08:51,480 some, some potential kind of, you know, deal deal strategy or 164 00:08:51,560 --> 00:08:55,640 or requirement in some respects. So they're updating it now and 165 00:08:55,640 --> 00:08:58,760 it's it's it's the market's sort of somewhat disappointed 166 00:08:58,760 --> 00:09:01,440 relative to what it was before. But I wonder if there's, I 167 00:09:01,440 --> 00:09:03,840 wonder if it's part of a, you know, a deal thematic that's 168 00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:05,800 underway at the moment again with this company. 169 00:09:05,960 --> 00:09:10,600 Yeah, yeah, who who knows? I'll just like could use I I 170 00:09:10,640 --> 00:09:12,520 don't think they're going for Spartan to use. 171 00:09:13,120 --> 00:09:14,280 Do you agree? Disagree. 172 00:09:14,280 --> 00:09:16,720 What do you think? Ding, Ding, Ding, while we're on 173 00:09:16,720 --> 00:09:20,480 it on, on Spartan. No, no, I, I don't think what I 174 00:09:20,480 --> 00:09:24,280 think the market's just taken, you know, on board very heavily 175 00:09:24,280 --> 00:09:28,120 today is that very near term production, that very immediate 176 00:09:28,120 --> 00:09:32,760 term CapEx bill, you know that 300 + 1,000,000 and that all in 177 00:09:32,760 --> 00:09:37,600 sustaining, you know, going up with to over 3000 bucks. 178 00:09:37,600 --> 00:09:40,040 And I think it's that sort of short term mindset that the 179 00:09:40,040 --> 00:09:43,840 market is purely fixated on. And to your point, Trev, and, 180 00:09:43,840 --> 00:09:46,960 and what you said earlier as well, Maddie, it, it could very 181 00:09:46,960 --> 00:09:48,800 well be something more in, in the plans. 182 00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:51,960 You know, that's sort of my plan looks like it'll fit something 183 00:09:51,960 --> 00:09:55,520 in quite neatly down the track. Just kind of remains to me 184 00:09:55,520 --> 00:09:58,760 saying what that is and at what price that could potentially 185 00:09:58,760 --> 00:10:02,000 come in. The war, yeah, I disagree with 186 00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:04,280 you guys. I think, I think they're only 187 00:10:04,280 --> 00:10:07,360 20% of Spartan like and yes, there's a scenario where it gets 188 00:10:07,840 --> 00:10:10,720 too expensive to and you know, Spartan kind of have to go to 189 00:10:10,720 --> 00:10:14,280 line, but Spartan on a relative basis has underperformed other 190 00:10:14,280 --> 00:10:17,200 gold names last six months. Like you're going to move, you 191 00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:19,360 know, you, you, you're going to, if you do want to move on them, 192 00:10:19,360 --> 00:10:21,360 you want to convince the market that you're not going to move on 193 00:10:21,360 --> 00:10:24,680 them and then they underperform and then you acquire them. 194 00:10:25,440 --> 00:10:27,120 I think that's what I think that's what they're doing like. 195 00:10:27,400 --> 00:10:30,480 Yeah, the biggest thing we'll go against them is Spartan resource 196 00:10:30,480 --> 00:10:33,160 growth, I guess, because that'll help them perform. 197 00:10:33,160 --> 00:10:36,240 So yeah, there's a bit of a bit of a tug of war going on there 198 00:10:36,240 --> 00:10:37,640 which you think's going to happen. 199 00:10:37,960 --> 00:10:43,280 Yeah, the the lens of them not pursuing Spartan isn't isn't you 200 00:10:43,280 --> 00:10:45,560 know, I haven't arrived there from this mine plan that hasn't 201 00:10:46,360 --> 00:10:49,920 changed the thinking massively. It's just a a sort of price and 202 00:10:49,960 --> 00:10:53,640 dilution kind of piece. Yeah, I take your point on, on 203 00:10:53,640 --> 00:10:57,920 the last sort of six months. But yeah, I mean, it's a, it's a 204 00:10:57,920 --> 00:10:59,400 tough one to call. There's always so many moving 205 00:10:59,400 --> 00:11:03,040 parts with these big M&A deals. And this would be, at this 206 00:11:03,040 --> 00:11:06,120 point, essentially a merger rather than a takeover just 207 00:11:06,120 --> 00:11:08,080 about, you know? Yeah, very much so. 208 00:11:08,920 --> 00:11:11,640 And look, in addition to that mill expansion, which the 209 00:11:12,040 --> 00:11:15,800 science is going to be about 80 million bucks, 5 for extra 210 00:11:15,800 --> 00:11:18,480 water, tend to upgrade the power for it all. 211 00:11:18,480 --> 00:11:22,720 Like looking to put in like a really up it to I think it's 32 212 00:11:22,720 --> 00:11:25,560 MW hybrid power, solar battery, wind. 213 00:11:25,680 --> 00:11:27,760 So Jesus Christ hasn't got that good. 214 00:11:27,760 --> 00:11:30,560 Tim Taylor and CBA written all over it, lads. 215 00:11:30,840 --> 00:11:33,360 Couldn't have, couldn't put it. Tim's probably already called. 216 00:11:33,600 --> 00:11:35,240 Yeah, he's locked that one up. Yeah. 217 00:11:35,240 --> 00:11:39,600 I think that is Remilius effectively talking to CBA in 218 00:11:39,600 --> 00:11:42,280 that line saying, hey, can you just give us a call? 219 00:11:42,400 --> 00:11:43,840 It's it's his bread and butter, right? 220 00:11:44,440 --> 00:11:48,160 Oh mate, like if this is this is his wheelhouse bread and butter. 221 00:11:48,400 --> 00:11:49,880 Mopping up the gravy off the plate. 222 00:11:49,960 --> 00:11:51,960 Just stop standing. Bread and butter play for Timmy 223 00:11:51,960 --> 00:11:53,400 Taylor and so very. I didn't. 224 00:11:53,400 --> 00:11:56,240 I didn't appreciate how substantial cross boundary 225 00:11:56,240 --> 00:11:58,360 energy are mate until having a beer with with Tim. 226 00:11:58,960 --> 00:12:01,200 They do some big ticket power items mate. 227 00:12:02,040 --> 00:12:04,880 Come from especially well years, would have probably seen a few 228 00:12:05,080 --> 00:12:07,400 over in Africa in your trip. Mate, come on. 229 00:12:07,440 --> 00:12:10,280 Cooler, Yeah. Enormous. 230 00:12:10,280 --> 00:12:11,920 Just signed, just signed a big one there. 231 00:12:12,120 --> 00:12:15,040 Oh mate, what more branding do you need? 232 00:12:15,400 --> 00:12:16,920 How good's that? It's crazy. 233 00:12:17,040 --> 00:12:19,560 I'll just get the copper as it comes out of the hole and Chuck 234 00:12:19,560 --> 00:12:21,520 it in the power plant. It'd be bloody great. 235 00:12:21,960 --> 00:12:26,080 Yeah. So that's where are we at? 236 00:12:26,080 --> 00:12:27,800 So. Penny, you had some. 237 00:12:28,160 --> 00:12:33,080 Oh yeah, there's always expiration potential, so and 238 00:12:33,080 --> 00:12:34,600 that and that's probably what's not. 239 00:12:35,320 --> 00:12:38,920 And they alluded to it on the call, like talking about, you 240 00:12:38,920 --> 00:12:41,880 know, like break of day is positively reconciling at the 241 00:12:41,880 --> 00:12:43,240 moment. Like God, I think the initial 242 00:12:43,240 --> 00:12:45,280 open pit was coming out at 9 grams. 243 00:12:45,280 --> 00:12:47,320 Still got the underground to come off that that they have 244 00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:49,520 backed in. They've got drilling to the 245 00:12:49,520 --> 00:12:51,280 north to do. They're like you look at the 246 00:12:51,280 --> 00:12:54,360 tenement there, there's plenty of potential on that break a day 247 00:12:54,760 --> 00:12:59,360 tenement like they've just hit, was it half a meter at 22 1/2 248 00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:03,440 grams at the north of Penny. So there's, you know, potential 249 00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:08,200 potential extensions there like just on on what they've got part 250 00:13:08,200 --> 00:13:10,960 that's 50 meters past the end of the proposed development. 251 00:13:10,960 --> 00:13:15,480 So might be a bit extra there and Simon Galaxy at mount 252 00:13:15,480 --> 00:13:16,800 magnets. I like you don't even know you 253 00:13:16,800 --> 00:13:18,920 don't know what they're going to get organically that they can 254 00:13:19,200 --> 00:13:23,040 add to fill that gap in FY20 7 potentially. 255 00:13:23,040 --> 00:13:27,160 You don't know what they're going to pick up for scrap or 256 00:13:27,160 --> 00:13:31,920 cash for some potential oxide opportunities to both fill that 257 00:13:31,920 --> 00:13:37,440 gap and lift the mil throughput from 2 1/2 to 2.7 if they can 258 00:13:37,440 --> 00:13:39,960 blend some oxide with it when they're in all the hard stuff. 259 00:13:39,960 --> 00:13:45,360 So yeah, that's pretty much where I think they're at. 260 00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:49,400 So it's yeah, it's odd. They've given themselves mine 261 00:13:49,400 --> 00:13:55,000 life, bro still then Rebecca Rose baked into this as well to 262 00:13:55,000 --> 00:13:59,160 come on. I think it's FY20 7 when we're 263 00:13:59,160 --> 00:14:03,000 going to see that. So that's so I'll get that 264 00:14:03,000 --> 00:14:04,000 right. FY20 8. 265 00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:06,040 Sorry. You feel that the market is 266 00:14:06,840 --> 00:14:10,200 wanting that to to pick up the slack a little bit. 267 00:14:10,200 --> 00:14:11,680 There's a bit more reliance on it. 268 00:14:12,080 --> 00:14:14,360 Well, there there is on that on that chart. 269 00:14:14,360 --> 00:14:16,560 Like that's the big contributor to their answer profile. 270 00:14:16,560 --> 00:14:19,200 So I don't like God in terms of cash position. 271 00:14:19,200 --> 00:14:22,200 Like, you know, they're still going to the cash they're going 272 00:14:22,200 --> 00:14:25,560 to still make in the next in the with the penny break a day 273 00:14:25,720 --> 00:14:28,280 should we hit together until penny runs out? 274 00:14:28,680 --> 00:14:31,560 Like I think what the for Rebecca Rowe I think had pre 275 00:14:31,560 --> 00:14:35,680 production of 200 and some 200 low 2 hundreds for the pre 276 00:14:35,680 --> 00:14:37,960 production. So Chuck a bit of mail on it if 277 00:14:37,960 --> 00:14:41,760 you need to. Their PFS was actually from the 278 00:14:41,760 --> 00:14:45,280 streets at all. It was, you know, underwhelming. 279 00:14:45,280 --> 00:14:48,200 But I've heard comments thought their costs that they actually 280 00:14:48,200 --> 00:14:52,320 use for Rebecca Rowe were just a bit more realistic than some 281 00:14:52,320 --> 00:14:57,040 studies use. So hence the low 20% IRR for it 282 00:14:57,400 --> 00:14:59,800 though yeah, I think that's where they're at. 283 00:14:59,800 --> 00:15:02,520 We'll see See what happens on the Remelius train. 284 00:15:03,120 --> 00:15:04,480 I'd say. I'd love to see these. 285 00:15:04,480 --> 00:15:10,280 I can with I think what is it, 60,000 BCM 6? 286 00:15:10,320 --> 00:15:14,360 Sorry, 60 million BCMS. A waste to behold from Erinitus 287 00:15:14,360 --> 00:15:18,040 for that cutback. If like a bloody MMS logos on 288 00:15:18,040 --> 00:15:20,000 all those trucks, that'll make me happy. 289 00:15:20,280 --> 00:15:22,960 Can you, can you think of extrapolating what they did at 290 00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:27,800 my rate, like get into the ore early, like along to the scale 291 00:15:27,800 --> 00:15:30,520 of 60 million BCMS? What that would mean for 292 00:15:30,520 --> 00:15:34,520 Remilius's mind playing if MMS do the cutback quicker? 293 00:15:35,160 --> 00:15:37,040 I'm connecting the dos mate and it's early a cash. 294 00:15:37,040 --> 00:15:43,640 Flow unbelievable. So I just yeah, it's a no, it's 295 00:15:43,640 --> 00:15:45,520 a no brainer for me. I'm pretty I'm pretty much 296 00:15:45,520 --> 00:15:49,120 setting up the whole amount magnet with money in mind. 297 00:15:49,120 --> 00:15:50,760 Sponsors today. Jeez. 298 00:15:50,760 --> 00:15:53,760 Like mate it could make that production profile look sexy. 299 00:15:53,760 --> 00:15:56,120 So you can already see it in the name. 300 00:15:56,480 --> 00:16:02,080 MMS, Mount Magnet Superstars. People are mining Sims, Mount 301 00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:05,160 magnet superstars. There's a lot of places you can 302 00:16:05,160 --> 00:16:08,320 go with this one, but what I know is that when I need to mine 303 00:16:08,400 --> 00:16:13,440 and move the dirt, I call MMS. And Trav, he pretty much every 304 00:16:13,440 --> 00:16:15,800 weekend. Yeah, he's mining all the time. 305 00:16:16,400 --> 00:16:17,520 Oh, I love it. Right up. 306 00:16:18,320 --> 00:16:22,320 This is interesting. Cut the cobalt. 307 00:16:23,040 --> 00:16:30,480 It's packing flavour. Yeah, I suppose this kind of be 308 00:16:30,480 --> 00:16:37,480 called Cut Cobalt Unit Trust. They've gone with Cobalt 309 00:16:37,480 --> 00:16:39,800 Holdings, but I think you could be on to something. 310 00:16:39,800 --> 00:16:42,400 They matter. So we'll we'll get a bit of a 311 00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:43,440 bit. I'm just going to leave that 312 00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:45,360 there. We'll get a bit of a petition 313 00:16:45,360 --> 00:16:47,800 going and maybe we'll get a name change happening, but. 314 00:16:48,040 --> 00:16:50,560 Spot to cut. I'm going to talk about 315 00:16:50,840 --> 00:16:53,760 everything going on in the, in the broader cobalt market and 316 00:16:53,760 --> 00:16:57,480 then wrap up with the the cut piece of it, Maddie. 317 00:16:57,480 --> 00:17:01,240 So no surprise to anyone, cobalt prices in the gutter and it has 318 00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:04,800 been for for some time. I heard in inflation adjusted 319 00:17:04,800 --> 00:17:07,520 terms, it's essentially at the the lowest price. 320 00:17:07,800 --> 00:17:11,839 It really has been on on record. So that's, you know, centuries 321 00:17:11,839 --> 00:17:15,040 sort of plus type of time frame. It's pretty, pretty bad and it's 322 00:17:15,040 --> 00:17:19,000 led to some big decisions from from governments, namely the 323 00:17:19,000 --> 00:17:20,720 DRC. Is the price in the in the 324 00:17:20,720 --> 00:17:26,280 gutter just as a result of A the copper mine expansions in the 325 00:17:26,280 --> 00:17:31,400 DRC and then B the, you know, nickel, nickel, cobalt kind of 326 00:17:31,440 --> 00:17:34,560 lateral operations that rapidly got produced in Indonesia? 327 00:17:35,480 --> 00:17:39,080 Yeah, more supply than demand at the end of the day, but demand 328 00:17:39,080 --> 00:17:41,640 has grown. So it's just that supply has 329 00:17:41,640 --> 00:17:46,120 grown so, so strongly. So we'll start with what's 330 00:17:46,120 --> 00:17:49,560 happening in in the DIC. So in, in late Feb, the 331 00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:52,840 government announced that they'd suspended cobalt exports for 332 00:17:52,840 --> 00:17:55,640 four months. The DIC is the biggest producer. 333 00:17:55,640 --> 00:17:59,480 They have about 75% market share of the world's supply. 334 00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:03,400 So they're a massive, massive player to to the extent that not 335 00:18:03,400 --> 00:18:05,880 many other countries are. When it comes to the various 336 00:18:05,880 --> 00:18:08,880 commodities, the Hard Rock commodities out there, the ramp 337 00:18:08,880 --> 00:18:14,480 up of mines like Seymox, Kisanfu was a big one. 10K from the room 338 00:18:14,480 --> 00:18:16,520 as well is a big one. And then you've got the 339 00:18:16,520 --> 00:18:20,400 expansions of all these other copper operations has flooded 340 00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:22,880 the market. And to get a sense of the scale 341 00:18:22,880 --> 00:18:25,920 so people kind of know that the rough tons we're talking about C 342 00:18:25,920 --> 00:18:29,800 Mock, the biggest producer in the world produces 630,000 tons 343 00:18:29,800 --> 00:18:33,600 of copper and 110,000 tons of cobalt. 344 00:18:33,600 --> 00:18:36,480 That was the 2025 target, the midpoints. 345 00:18:36,880 --> 00:18:38,520 And that's just across 2 operations. 346 00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:42,160 The other key players are Glencore and Arg. 347 00:18:42,400 --> 00:18:46,280 So that's Eurasia Resources Group, the the Kazaks the rest 348 00:18:46,280 --> 00:18:49,840 of the world supplies. So roughly 25% is made-up of 349 00:18:49,840 --> 00:18:52,400 bits and pieces all around the world. 350 00:18:52,400 --> 00:18:57,200 You've got the Indonesian nickel mines moving from next to 351 00:18:57,200 --> 00:19:01,480 nothing just a few years ago to about 10% of global supply. 352 00:19:01,800 --> 00:19:04,720 That doubled in 2024 alone, just in one year. 353 00:19:05,080 --> 00:19:07,120 Doubled again purely as a. Byproduct. 354 00:19:07,120 --> 00:19:10,800 So it's, it's a byproduct in the, in the VRC assets as well. 355 00:19:10,800 --> 00:19:13,880 I mean, they're, yeah, all those companies are hunting for the 356 00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:16,360 copper, but the, the cobot's there. 357 00:19:16,640 --> 00:19:21,840 Yeah, the the economics looked very, very good at say Kisanfu, 358 00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:25,440 which is one of the heaviest cobalt to copper ratios in the 359 00:19:25,440 --> 00:19:27,200 world. When, when Cobalt's it's sort of 360 00:19:27,200 --> 00:19:30,240 50 thousand U.S. dollars a ton. Those economics look very 361 00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:34,760 different when cobalt is down 7075%. 362 00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:38,680 So they they, they alone kind of not many others were really 363 00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:45,760 thinking so cobalt heavy, but 98% of cobalt is if you're, if 364 00:19:45,760 --> 00:19:48,480 you're counting seem like in it 98 percent is by product supply. 365 00:19:48,840 --> 00:19:53,240 So not many. Between nickel and Cobold in the 366 00:19:53,240 --> 00:19:55,320 sheet, how Marin. Marin is still going. 367 00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:58,520 Phenomenal, isn't it? Yeah, I don't think, I don't 368 00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:01,320 think Marin Marin's moving the needle much on global copper 369 00:20:01,320 --> 00:20:03,520 supply. But it's it's Australia's 370 00:20:03,520 --> 00:20:04,720 biggest one. Go Australia. 371 00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:07,600 Yeah, I'm not sure how profitable the operation is at 372 00:20:07,600 --> 00:20:10,280 the moment, but it's it's still running as as far as we know. 373 00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:12,760 So, yeah. And just to run out on on 374 00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:15,840 demand, a lot of sort of forecasts were pointing to 20% 375 00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:19,320 growth this year. That's very substantial. 376 00:20:19,360 --> 00:20:22,040 You know, take any kind of forecast with a pinch of salt, 377 00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:25,560 but that is substantial growth by by any kind of. 378 00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:27,720 Measure demand goes up because the price came down. 379 00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:32,880 You'd, you'd think, but you know, LFP has been the, the 380 00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:35,960 chemistry winning outright, but that is a, a huge part of the 381 00:20:36,080 --> 00:20:37,520 debate, right? How do you think about it? 382 00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:40,960 If you're the DRC government? It's it's a balancing act 383 00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:43,440 between not wanting to Jack up the price crazy high and 384 00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:47,080 disincentivize OEMs, battery makers or car makers are 385 00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:49,360 actually using the stuff as well. 386 00:20:49,360 --> 00:20:52,280 I mean you got the Super alloy part of the market as well. 387 00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:55,680 That's sort of 20 to 30% of the market, a bit less than that, 388 00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:57,600 but 70% of the market is, is batteries. 389 00:20:57,600 --> 00:21:01,800 So it's a, it's a balancing act. So the, I mean the cobalt price 390 00:21:01,800 --> 00:21:03,160 did bounce on on the back of this. 391 00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:06,720 You've got a few different exchanges measuring it in, in 392 00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:07,840 Europe over the past couple weeks. 393 00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:12,640 It's up about 25%. It's up in, in China as well. 394 00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:16,760 Remains to be seen if the OEMs actually have the supply to last 395 00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:18,960 them four months or if we're going to see a bit of a tick up 396 00:21:18,960 --> 00:21:21,440 again as we get to the end of of that period. 397 00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:25,040 And on the equity side of it, ERG isn't listed. 398 00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:27,120 Glencore, it's kind of irrelevant, you know. 399 00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:30,080 So Seamock's the only one we can really go off and they're up 400 00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:32,840 about 15% actually since the end of February. 401 00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:34,640 So they've had a tick up on the back of this too. 402 00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:38,040 So what? What's the export being gonna 403 00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:41,520 actually do? This is a, you know, kind of 404 00:21:42,120 --> 00:21:45,000 open for interpretation, right? If you can think how this 405 00:21:45,120 --> 00:21:49,040 impacts the market, Maddie. So we, we spoke a lot when BHB 406 00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:52,400 were considering putting nickel waste into care and maintenance 407 00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:56,600 and shutting it down at well over a year ago now. 408 00:21:56,600 --> 00:21:59,240 And you know, you get into the realm of politics. 409 00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:01,800 But at the end of the day, a government's ability to 410 00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:05,600 manipulate a commodity and a smaller commodity than nickel. 411 00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:09,040 This is cobalt in which it has a big stake. 412 00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:12,560 You know, 75% is is pretty complicated, but you need to 413 00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:15,480 take a long term view and I think that's the lens. 414 00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:18,440 So what's going to happen over the next four months? 415 00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:22,880 To start with the XDRC producers, the people in 416 00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:26,040 Indonesia for instance, they're going to make a bit more money 417 00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:28,760 and I've got Pretty Little doubt there will be some people in the 418 00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:31,880 DRC making money out of this one way or another. 419 00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:36,160 Well, I noticed the the price of hydroxide shut up because that's 420 00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:37,960 coming from the the copper in the DRC. 421 00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:42,680 But what you what comes out of Indonesia is MHP and where is 422 00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:44,840 that prices that hadn't moved as much. 423 00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:50,040 The Indonesian yeah, stuff, yeah, I didn't focus on that too 424 00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:52,600 much. But I mean, let's kind of say 425 00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:55,440 over four months what it kind of does because it's it's been a 426 00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:57,440 bit complicated through actions that the Indonesians have 427 00:22:57,440 --> 00:23:01,240 actually done, which you might, yeah, talk about soon as well. 428 00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:04,840 But at the end of four months, right, you're going to have big 429 00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:07,080 stockpiles from from all of these companies. 430 00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:09,000 And this happened with C Mock in 2023. 431 00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:10,800 There's a tax dispute with the DRC. 432 00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:13,960 They built up, you know, nearly a year's worth of stockpiles and 433 00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:16,240 then just washed them out through 24. 434 00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:18,320 And that's part of the reason that the market came off. 435 00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:21,160 There's, there's already massive stockpiles of, of cobalt 436 00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:23,800 hydroxide. Like if the stockpiles aren't 437 00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:26,960 currently with the miners and a lot of them, I mean, we, we were 438 00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:29,480 in the DRC, we saw like all the mines we visited where they, 439 00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:31,280 they're producing a cobalt byproduct. 440 00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:34,520 It's just bags and bags and bags of cobalt hydroxide there. 441 00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:37,280 And they're waiting for better prices before, before selling. 442 00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:40,360 So we saw heaps of stockpiling happening at from the miners and 443 00:23:40,360 --> 00:23:43,000 then talking to people at at, you know, CMOC or whatever, 444 00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:46,400 they're selling it to the OEMs in China who are taking the 445 00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:48,960 opportunity to stockpile themselves at very low prices. 446 00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:52,920 So one way or another, there's a buildup of surplus of these bags 447 00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:55,720 of cobalt hydroxide. And if it's not actually going 448 00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:59,200 into an end product like it's an overhang on the market at the 449 00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:02,040 end of the day. What's cobalt hydroxide look 450 00:24:02,040 --> 00:24:03,800 like? Bags. 451 00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:07,800 Bags of like a very dark coloured kind of powdered dust 452 00:24:07,800 --> 00:24:10,440 and it unlike your lithium hydroxide and very long life as 453 00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:12,000 long as it's in a moisture free environment. 454 00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:14,800 So if it's if it's in a shed you can you can store it for ages 455 00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:15,760 like. Happy days. 456 00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:19,560 Those bags are those bags are like 1/3 cobalt. 457 00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:23,960 They need a bit of work on them still to be done, but that's, 458 00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:26,800 that's the product that's getting shipped from the DRC. 459 00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:30,880 And to that point on stockpiles, the the Chinese state, I don't 460 00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:34,120 know exactly in, in what form, but they were stockpiling over 461 00:24:34,120 --> 00:24:36,440 six months ago, strategic reserves of cobalt. 462 00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:39,800 We don't do that in the West, but that's a whole another kind 463 00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:44,520 of topic. Longer term, if, if the DRC does 464 00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:47,560 want to keep prices up, it's, it's pretty complicated, right? 465 00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:50,120 Because so hypothetically they were able to, you're just going 466 00:24:50,120 --> 00:24:52,480 to encourage people to go more down the LFP route, which 467 00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:55,600 doesn't use cobalt or the various other bits of battery 468 00:24:55,600 --> 00:24:59,480 technology or chemistry that are non cobalt based. 469 00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:02,080 And you know, we've seen LFP dominance surge. 470 00:25:02,080 --> 00:25:06,600 So in EV share, they're in the, the mid kind of 40s percentage 471 00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:10,120 of all cars sold. And if you look specifically in 472 00:25:10,120 --> 00:25:12,560 China, because they don't care as much about range and stuff, 473 00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:16,000 we're talking about close to 70% relies on that chemistry. 474 00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:20,600 And LFPS even gained market share in best in stationary 475 00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:23,480 storage batteries, which a lot of people didn't think it would 476 00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:25,480 for a while. They thought, you know, 477 00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:31,640 basically on a, a sort of land space type discussion, you would 478 00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:36,520 want to go with a denser chemistry because it wouldn't be 479 00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:38,840 taking up and your real estate cost would be lower, these sorts 480 00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:41,320 of things. But again, LFP is just becoming 481 00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:42,680 dominant. So I'm very curious to see in 482 00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:46,360 time what sort of market share the various chemistries have. 483 00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:48,960 Nobody knows And it already looks every year it kind of 484 00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:51,040 looks different. And it does seem LFP is winning 485 00:25:51,040 --> 00:25:53,120 on all kind of regards and that's becoming the dominant 486 00:25:53,120 --> 00:25:55,040 one. But this is a market that's seen 487 00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:57,600 pretty significant changes from time to time. 488 00:25:57,600 --> 00:26:00,680 So yeah, an open-ended one on on that front. 489 00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:03,360 What's next mate? Like. 490 00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:08,080 It's it's complicated at Travan. I think there's one more thing 491 00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:11,120 we kind of have to to pace in here and it's the the 492 00:26:11,120 --> 00:26:15,360 deteriorating, deteriorating situation in the Eastern DRC. 493 00:26:15,360 --> 00:26:19,160 I don't don't talk too much about it, but again, heaps of 494 00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:21,160 moving parts. But you know, suffice to say 495 00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:26,360 it's not gone well for the DRC. It's a bit of a geopolitical 496 00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:29,640 mess across the world really not, not just in that part of 497 00:26:29,640 --> 00:26:32,640 the world. But the DRC urgently needs cash. 498 00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:36,600 And it's probably not a complete coincidence that this has 499 00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:40,720 happened now. And I've, I've got Pretty Little 500 00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:43,960 doubt that, like I said before, that the DRC government one way 501 00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:47,120 or another will try and profit off this somehow because they, 502 00:26:47,440 --> 00:26:49,920 they need to kind of fund their efforts over there. 503 00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:52,080 And I'm sure they're going to be looking at other type 504 00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:55,880 discussions like we saw last week, potential conversations 505 00:26:55,880 --> 00:26:59,360 with the US to try and tie up mineral deals like we saw with 506 00:26:59,360 --> 00:27:02,560 Ukraine. Yeah, it's, it's a tough one. 507 00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:05,640 There were rumors that they wanted to look for ex Chinese 508 00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:09,120 support, which was very interesting because I think 2/3 509 00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:12,840 of the cobalt producers and a lot of the miners in the country 510 00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:16,720 are Chinese groups. Well, there they're certainly 511 00:27:16,880 --> 00:27:19,640 majority non Western. You know, Glencore is really the 512 00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:22,840 only one left there. So, yeah, very, very tough to 513 00:27:23,040 --> 00:27:25,560 see where that goes on the specific cobalt kind of front. 514 00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:29,400 Maybe they do an export quota. Maybe you're giving each company 515 00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:34,440 a certain amount of cobalt that they can specifically export and 516 00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:38,080 potentially to the point on the actual material that they are 517 00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:40,880 producing, maybe they're forced them to go downstream like we 518 00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:43,320 saw in Indonesia. Maybe they want more value add 519 00:27:43,320 --> 00:27:46,400 in country. It's a kind of tough bargain to 520 00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:48,760 kind of drive when you're not making any money on it, but it 521 00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:50,840 remains the same Here we go on that one. 522 00:27:51,160 --> 00:27:58,360 What about yellow cake 2.0 or brown cake 2.0 or dark dark 523 00:27:58,360 --> 00:28:00,000 coloured cake? Too dark coloured cake. 524 00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:01,560 This is, this is the interesting stuff, Maddie. 525 00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:04,120 It's very interesting. Yeah, I found this fascinating. 526 00:28:04,120 --> 00:28:07,200 So there's a group led by a guy called Jake Greenberg and they 527 00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:09,040 want to list a cobalt holding company. 528 00:28:09,040 --> 00:28:11,800 Like I said, at the top, Jake was part of the team that 529 00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:15,040 founded Yellow Cake. Every uranium bull knows Yellow 530 00:28:15,040 --> 00:28:17,760 Cake. They've got about £21.7 million 531 00:28:18,360 --> 00:28:21,600 of uranium locked up in a, in a vault somewhere. 532 00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:26,000 And he wants to repeat that recipe for cobalt. 533 00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:28,840 And he's talking about this being out of loved. 534 00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:32,160 He's talking about this, you know, he, he, he talks about in 535 00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:36,520 the context of mean reversion being a moving kind of principle 536 00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:40,080 in financial markets with cobalt being no exception. 537 00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:45,920 So they're looking to raise £180 million and list in London in 538 00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:47,160 May. So it's happening quite soon and 539 00:28:47,160 --> 00:28:50,120 they've actually tied up a deal with Glencore, who reportedly 540 00:28:50,120 --> 00:28:53,280 take a 10% stake in the company, as well as agreeing to sell 541 00:28:53,280 --> 00:28:58,440 about US $200 million worth of cobalt to the company over a a 542 00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:00,200 undefined long period of time. Yeah. 543 00:29:00,200 --> 00:29:03,680 So effectively the same as what Yellow Cakes deal is. 544 00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:07,520 Yellow Cake have the contract to purchase 100 million US of 545 00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:10,840 uranium from Kazaam Prom every year. 546 00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:13,800 So I assume they're going to structure a very similar thing 547 00:29:13,800 --> 00:29:16,840 with Glencore. Would you check in, Maddie? 548 00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:20,320 Jeez, you're not filling me with confidence, Copper. 549 00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:25,240 With all those kind of thoughts in my mind, I kind of admire 550 00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:28,120 that. The counter cyclical thinking 551 00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:30,520 like I'd I'd have to do a lot more research but. 552 00:29:30,520 --> 00:29:34,400 Well tipped in the fucking spot at the wrong time like your 553 00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:37,320 soldered it went down bloody another friggin 50%. 554 00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:40,920 Yeah, I mean, it's safe to say most people hate cobalt, right? 555 00:29:40,920 --> 00:29:45,280 Like we've we've been saying it for for literally years now, 556 00:29:45,280 --> 00:29:48,000 like battery makers looking to make batteries that don't have 557 00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:51,280 cobalt because of all the the artisanal related challenges in 558 00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:53,280 the DRC. You know, you can go from one 559 00:29:53,280 --> 00:29:56,960 challenge to the next. So yeah, it's thinking outside 560 00:29:56,960 --> 00:29:58,560 the box. It's thinking outside the box. 561 00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:01,680 They're like, and usually, usually our industry is self 562 00:30:01,680 --> 00:30:04,320 correcting, you know, lower prices and then you get a 563 00:30:04,320 --> 00:30:07,000 contraction of of supply and then you and then all of a 564 00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:11,240 sudden prices go higher again. But when 98% of your production 565 00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:14,400 is by product, you don't have the same market forces in place 566 00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:16,680 that constrict supply. If anything, supply is growing 567 00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:18,640 because the world is demanding more or copper. 568 00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:23,560 And as a result of that, yeah, you don't have the same mean 569 00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:26,280 reversion as Jake would put it on on your side necessarily. 570 00:30:26,280 --> 00:30:27,760 You've got to take that into account. 571 00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:30,800 I'd I'd look at, if you look at the journey of yellow cake and 572 00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:34,360 spat, probably pretty similar to this. 573 00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:36,440 A lot of their pounds were purchased early on at lower 574 00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:37,840 prices. So for 200 million, you're 575 00:30:37,840 --> 00:30:41,000 getting a lot more cobalt. That's how they build the build 576 00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:43,320 the size of the trust and yadda yadda. 577 00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:47,800 And then sell the bloody thing. That's what you know about spat. 578 00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:51,600 So it's it's a similar starting point of what when they probably 579 00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:53,800 started the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust. 580 00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:58,360 It takes tons out of the market. So to a, to a certain degree, it 581 00:30:58,360 --> 00:31:02,440 helps their 'cause if they can do it, you know, but what degree 582 00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:05,120 can you do that? And yeah, I just under score 583 00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:07,960 what you just said there, Trev. It's a, it's a byproduct and 584 00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:10,400 that adds a whole layer of complexity to this. 585 00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:13,720 We haven't seen any supply response from what we've seen, 586 00:31:14,160 --> 00:31:15,840 hardly any. I mean, they're stockpiling it 587 00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:20,480 at mine sites, but limited in terms of minds being canned and 588 00:31:20,480 --> 00:31:22,520 those sorts of things. Yeah. 589 00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:28,240 So when's that or is it may, may watch this space, very 590 00:31:28,240 --> 00:31:30,680 interesting, very interesting also. 591 00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:33,600 So that 190,000,000 lbs. Sorry, in the flight that's 592 00:31:33,600 --> 00:31:36,720 going to cover what they are going to buy off Glencore 593 00:31:36,720 --> 00:31:40,440 effectively are there 200 US to 190,000,000 lbs with 594 00:31:40,440 --> 00:31:42,600 roundabouts? Yeah, but they said long term, 595 00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:45,240 so I'm not sure when those 200 would be paid. 596 00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:48,000 Right up it's. It's light on details at this 597 00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:51,440 point, but we'll see. Brought out Speaking of 598 00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:55,240 something that makes cobalt as a bloody by product nickel. 599 00:31:55,480 --> 00:31:58,440 If you check Nickel Industries and it's one of the companies 600 00:31:58,520 --> 00:32:02,480 probably most, most punitively attacked for its market cap by 601 00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:06,320 the by the gyrations today in the stock market, it is down in 602 00:32:06,320 --> 00:32:09,920 today it was down about 19%. And this is a, this is like, you 603 00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:12,160 know, before, before today's movement talking about a $3 604 00:32:12,160 --> 00:32:16,280 billion market cap smashed down 19%. 605 00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:19,360 So that's a, that's a whopping move for a company of that size. 606 00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:22,920 And it was such a substantial intraday move that it triggered 607 00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:25,760 a speeding ticket from, from the mighty ASX. 608 00:32:26,240 --> 00:32:29,800 And it was the response to ASX's question that I think we have to 609 00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:31,960 talk about because it kind of provided me to do some research. 610 00:32:32,640 --> 00:32:35,760 Question 3 in the speeding ticket from ASX says, is there 611 00:32:35,760 --> 00:32:38,360 any other explanation that the company may have for the recent 612 00:32:38,360 --> 00:32:42,280 trading in the securities of the company to which Nickel 613 00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:45,160 Industries pointed to? Firstly, there was a sale of 614 00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:51,400 approximately 178 million shares by their shareholder called PT 615 00:32:51,400 --> 00:32:54,640 Haram Energy in a block trade at about $0.69 per share. 616 00:32:55,160 --> 00:32:58,560 And secondly, they point to, I'll quote this, the press is 617 00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:00,320 widely reported that the Indonesian government has 618 00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:03,160 released a proposal for public consultation that would increase 619 00:33:03,160 --> 00:33:06,040 royalties for operators across multiple commodities, including 620 00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:09,120 nickel. The current royalty rate on 621 00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:12,960 nickel ore is 10%, whilst the proposed royalty range for 622 00:33:12,960 --> 00:33:17,560 public consultation is 14 to 19%, depending on the prevailing 623 00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:20,440 equal price at the time. Based on the information 624 00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:23,360 released, the proposed royalty would be 14% of the current 625 00:33:23,360 --> 00:33:25,440 nickel price. At this point in time, the 626 00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:26,840 proposals have not been legislated. 627 00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:29,760 However, should this change, the company will continue to fully 628 00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:32,800 comply with Indonesia's laws. IS. 629 00:33:33,280 --> 00:33:37,360 Is PT Haram energy Indonesian? It it is. 630 00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:39,160 It's a yeah, it's a very interesting. 631 00:33:39,160 --> 00:33:44,160 Coal company, Yeah. Nickel or that that wording. 632 00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:47,400 What do you think? Well, I, I did a bunch of, of 633 00:33:47,400 --> 00:33:51,160 research that and there's, there's varying kind of changes 634 00:33:51,160 --> 00:33:53,040 to royalty regimes on all of the nickel products, including 635 00:33:53,080 --> 00:33:57,400 nickel ores and metal nickel pig eye and MHP all, all of all of 636 00:33:57,400 --> 00:34:00,800 the above. So is the conversation being had 637 00:34:00,800 --> 00:34:05,840 that there'll be an increase in royalties on Matt, Pig Eye and 638 00:34:06,040 --> 00:34:11,120 any any further processed metal? Yeah, I'll, I'll, I'll add some 639 00:34:11,120 --> 00:34:14,080 context here. First, it was, it was Reuters 640 00:34:14,080 --> 00:34:16,040 that led the Western media with the coverage of of this 641 00:34:16,040 --> 00:34:18,760 potential royalty hike as I've highlighted here. 642 00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:21,800 But the, the primary sources actually comes from Indonesia's 643 00:34:21,800 --> 00:34:25,280 Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources on the 8th of March. 644 00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:27,920 So that was that was Saturday. So it was kind of fascinating 645 00:34:27,920 --> 00:34:30,960 how nickel mines share price was largely unaffected all through 646 00:34:30,960 --> 00:34:34,080 trade on Monday. And then Reuters story landed 647 00:34:34,080 --> 00:34:38,520 kind of aftermarket Australian time, the clever shareholder 648 00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:42,280 Haram, they block out their stock at $0.69 and when I last 649 00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:44,639 checked the stock was about $0.63, so lower than they 650 00:34:44,639 --> 00:34:47,000 blocked it out even though that the shareholder did a pretty 651 00:34:47,000 --> 00:34:50,719 substantial discount to last. So breakdown this actual 652 00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:52,800 government proposal that's been reported upon. 653 00:34:53,520 --> 00:34:57,000 In a nutshell, Indonesia. They actually had elections last 654 00:34:57,000 --> 00:35:01,720 year and as of October, the new president and administration was 655 00:35:01,720 --> 00:35:05,160 sworn in. It sounds a bit abstract, but 656 00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:09,080 the the the president who was sworn in, President Prabowo 657 00:35:09,080 --> 00:35:12,200 probably saying that wrong, but his policies, they included a 658 00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:15,640 lot of popular ideas such as free meals for school children 659 00:35:15,640 --> 00:35:19,040 and pregnant women. And these kind of popular 660 00:35:19,160 --> 00:35:23,120 policies are, you know, they, they resonate with the public. 661 00:35:23,120 --> 00:35:24,600 But Indonesia's a huge country, right? 662 00:35:24,600 --> 00:35:26,080 And there's over 200 million people. 663 00:35:26,080 --> 00:35:28,720 So that's a lot of food. Especially pregnant women, 664 00:35:28,720 --> 00:35:33,600 right? Too, I suppose the context of 665 00:35:33,600 --> 00:35:36,560 this proposed royalty change is, is honestly like, think of the 666 00:35:36,560 --> 00:35:39,360 budgetary implications of a new president's pretty substantial 667 00:35:39,360 --> 00:35:42,280 popular spending agenda. You need more revenue to spend 668 00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:44,320 more. So I've looked pretty hard to 669 00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:47,480 find the, the actual kind of guidance put out from the, the 670 00:35:47,480 --> 00:35:49,880 ministry itself in relation to these royalty changes. 671 00:35:49,880 --> 00:35:51,440 But I, I failed in that endeavor. 672 00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:53,280 I found pretty good secondary sources. 673 00:35:53,600 --> 00:35:55,920 The articles that talk about this, even when you Google 674 00:35:55,920 --> 00:35:58,960 Translate the Indonesian ones, they, they all source like 675 00:35:58,960 --> 00:36:02,680 quotes from the director of minerals and coal at the 676 00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:06,080 ministry by the name of our tree Win, win, win. 677 00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:08,040 I know himself. So I think, I think there's 678 00:36:08,040 --> 00:36:10,680 credibility to all of this. There's two regulations that are 679 00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:14,560 suggested to be revised. 11 relates to the coal royalty 680 00:36:14,560 --> 00:36:17,080 rates and the other one to, to the nickel product royalties 681 00:36:17,080 --> 00:36:20,360 too. And like Nickel Industries says 682 00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:24,080 in their response to ASX, that nickel ore royalty is proposed 683 00:36:24,080 --> 00:36:29,000 to change from a fixed 10% to a range of 14 to 19% depending on 684 00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:31,280 the, on the reference nickel price. 685 00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:34,600 They, they, they referenced this HMA nickel price, you know, U.S. 686 00:36:34,600 --> 00:36:37,080 dollars per ton. You can see that scale of, of 687 00:36:37,080 --> 00:36:39,680 what the, the royalty would actually change to based on, 688 00:36:39,720 --> 00:36:42,760 based on that, that rate sort of the, the higher the price, the 689 00:36:42,760 --> 00:36:44,920 more you got to pay. And it doesn't stop at just 690 00:36:44,920 --> 00:36:47,600 nickel or sadly lucky. You touched on JD, there's the 691 00:36:47,600 --> 00:36:50,160 downstream is, is going to take a hit too. 692 00:36:50,160 --> 00:36:53,320 So you've got royalty rates for ferro nickel and nickel, nickel 693 00:36:53,320 --> 00:36:57,640 and pig iron are currently 2% and 5% respectively. 694 00:36:57,760 --> 00:37:00,960 But this proposal would see them lift to a range of five to 7% 695 00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:02,280 depending on the reference price. 696 00:37:03,040 --> 00:37:06,880 And lastly, nickel Matt's windfall profit has been removed 697 00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:09,960 under the new proposal with a fixed 2 to 3% royalty rate to be 698 00:37:09,960 --> 00:37:14,040 revised to 4.5 to 6.5% depending on your reference rate. 699 00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:17,480 To be clear, like these, these are, these are proposals at, at 700 00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:20,400 this stage for public consultation as as as nickel 701 00:37:20,400 --> 00:37:22,120 industry says. But the concerning thing for 702 00:37:22,120 --> 00:37:25,280 investors is this is a proposal that has come from the new 703 00:37:25,280 --> 00:37:27,000 government of the country. It's not, it's not like an 704 00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:29,000 opposition party that is proposing something that has no 705 00:37:29,000 --> 00:37:32,520 chance of kind of getting over the line in a legislative sense. 706 00:37:32,520 --> 00:37:36,840 And, and also like this, the president of Indonesia, this is 707 00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:39,360 the president of a country who was quoted last year describing 708 00:37:39,360 --> 00:37:42,880 democracy as tiring, costly and messy and said there was room 709 00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:45,280 for improvement. So make your own mind up on the 710 00:37:45,280 --> 00:37:47,800 probability this proposal turns into legislation or not. 711 00:37:48,480 --> 00:37:51,280 What is clear is equity markets are nervous in particular 712 00:37:51,640 --> 00:37:54,840 investors in nickel industries. I I just pulled up the relative 713 00:37:54,840 --> 00:37:57,360 share price movements of all the companies that produce a a 714 00:37:57,360 --> 00:38:00,360 nickel product from from Indonesia that I could find and 715 00:38:00,360 --> 00:38:03,800 check the relative sell off in in nickel industries versus the 716 00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:07,120 other list of names I could I could find it, it leads to pack. 717 00:38:07,120 --> 00:38:08,400 Substantially the one at the bottom. 718 00:38:08,760 --> 00:38:13,080 Yeah, it is. It's pretty, pretty stark, 719 00:38:13,080 --> 00:38:14,240 right? I think there's potentially a 720 00:38:14,240 --> 00:38:18,040 few reasons for that. Yeah, substantial 721 00:38:18,280 --> 00:38:20,120 underperformance, first, first peers. 722 00:38:20,680 --> 00:38:23,680 They could also be oversold like you know, you've got to do your 723 00:38:23,680 --> 00:38:25,720 own homework here. But if you look at the proposed 724 00:38:25,720 --> 00:38:28,760 royalty changes, they punitively punish sales of nickel ores. 725 00:38:29,240 --> 00:38:33,200 And if you, if you check nickel industries EBITDA for, you know, 726 00:38:33,200 --> 00:38:37,680 full year 2024, USA 100 million comes from sales of nickel ore 727 00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:39,840 mining. The other US 200 million comes 728 00:38:39,840 --> 00:38:43,840 from their share of NPI and MHP produced from the downstream 729 00:38:43,840 --> 00:38:46,560 processing. So there's, there's a fair whack 730 00:38:46,560 --> 00:38:49,240 there on all fronts. And what probably hits them 731 00:38:49,280 --> 00:38:52,120 again is you got to look at the balance sheet too. 732 00:38:52,120 --> 00:38:54,920 So I got net debt of US 832,000,000 bucks. 733 00:38:55,240 --> 00:38:58,760 And if you, if you thought of the status quo royalty regime, 734 00:38:58,760 --> 00:39:01,120 they're like with that sort of net debt, no issues. 735 00:39:01,120 --> 00:39:03,360 These are fantastic assets that are really low on the cost curve 736 00:39:03,360 --> 00:39:05,240 like that, that amount of debts, no worries. 737 00:39:05,240 --> 00:39:08,800 But the pros hike suddenly eats into a giant proportion of your, 738 00:39:09,440 --> 00:39:13,320 your EBITDA and all of a sudden, you know that that gearing kind 739 00:39:13,320 --> 00:39:15,320 of doesn't look as appropriate as it used to look under the 740 00:39:15,320 --> 00:39:18,080 status quo. So I just thought I'd pose a 741 00:39:18,080 --> 00:39:20,600 question to you guys like hearing this news, observing 742 00:39:20,600 --> 00:39:24,200 this and the, the, the, the kind of out of nowhere implication 743 00:39:24,200 --> 00:39:26,160 that hasn't stopped for us. What do you what do you think of 744 00:39:26,160 --> 00:39:28,920 this? Got a couple thoughts. 745 00:39:29,080 --> 00:39:33,680 Firstly, mining companies with single kind of assets with debt 746 00:39:34,160 --> 00:39:37,760 are always risky and can often come from left field. 747 00:39:38,280 --> 00:39:40,280 What hits you? You know, this isn't a single 748 00:39:40,280 --> 00:39:42,160 asset company. They've got a lot of different 749 00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:44,120 minds, but they're concentrated country risk. 750 00:39:44,120 --> 00:39:46,440 So that's what I was referring to, a single jurisdiction 751 00:39:46,560 --> 00:39:50,280 rather. And my other thought was trying 752 00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:53,520 to tie it back to stuff I'd read about Indonesian nickel last 753 00:39:53,520 --> 00:39:55,480 year. They obviously wanted to 754 00:39:55,480 --> 00:39:58,920 dominate supply of nickel that was a, you know, pretty much 755 00:39:59,160 --> 00:40:03,640 written in legislation there. But even these prices were 756 00:40:03,640 --> 00:40:06,120 levels they weren't happy with. They wanted prices to be higher 757 00:40:06,120 --> 00:40:09,560 so the government makes more. Revenue via via royalties and 758 00:40:09,560 --> 00:40:11,320 taxes and all these kind of things. 759 00:40:11,320 --> 00:40:13,920 So just trying to think kind of creatively, are they trying to 760 00:40:13,920 --> 00:40:18,160 disincentivize potentially more? I know that's thinking like one 761 00:40:18,160 --> 00:40:22,360 or two steps kind of ahead, but this would certainly be a big 762 00:40:22,520 --> 00:40:24,480 disincentive. Like you guys remember the the 763 00:40:24,480 --> 00:40:28,560 reaction to the coal royalties in Queensland and just how 764 00:40:28,560 --> 00:40:32,760 disgusted BHB, Glencore and every other miner in the state 765 00:40:32,760 --> 00:40:34,440 was. You know, companies don't like 766 00:40:34,440 --> 00:40:37,240 this for a reason. You know, you want stability to 767 00:40:37,400 --> 00:40:40,840 guide your mind, plans to rate the rewards for the CapEx you've 768 00:40:40,840 --> 00:40:44,720 sunk into the ground a long time ago and the the reaction would 769 00:40:44,720 --> 00:40:48,640 be pretty, pretty heated. Even even if they are Chinese 770 00:40:48,640 --> 00:40:50,280 companies or whatever, you know, they're not going to, they're 771 00:40:50,600 --> 00:40:51,920 not going to like this one bit. What? 772 00:40:52,080 --> 00:40:53,680 Do you recommend? It's like, it's like Indonesia, 773 00:40:53,680 --> 00:40:55,880 Nichols just, and the government, they're all just 774 00:40:55,880 --> 00:41:00,360 fighting between themselves because they've gained control. 775 00:41:00,360 --> 00:41:02,120 Like they're just, yeah, it's a lot. 776 00:41:02,120 --> 00:41:04,520 They've caused the price. Well, they obviously have caused 777 00:41:04,520 --> 00:41:08,280 the price themselves to be low because they wanted the market 778 00:41:08,280 --> 00:41:12,480 control. And it's just, yeah, it's, it's 779 00:41:12,480 --> 00:41:15,280 a weird concept to think of. I don't know, it's all happening 780 00:41:15,280 --> 00:41:17,360 in one country. I don't know if there's like a 781 00:41:17,360 --> 00:41:19,920 unified voice or opinion of Indonesia. 782 00:41:19,920 --> 00:41:21,960 I mean, we're talking about changing government over this 783 00:41:21,960 --> 00:41:25,120 period of time. And I, I, I, this is not just 784 00:41:25,120 --> 00:41:27,720 going to apply to nickel, it's going to apply to coal in a, in 785 00:41:27,720 --> 00:41:31,000 a different capacity to all of the other minerals they produce 786 00:41:31,000 --> 00:41:35,160 in unspecified kind of, yeah, quantified royalty changes so 787 00:41:35,160 --> 00:41:39,640 far and the other commodities. It's not just nickel, but I hate 788 00:41:39,640 --> 00:41:43,000 seeing this. Like if you just take, so one of 789 00:41:43,000 --> 00:41:46,360 one of Nickel Industries operations is, is the Oracle 790 00:41:46,360 --> 00:41:50,480 nickel project, which nickel industries they have an 80% 791 00:41:50,480 --> 00:41:52,640 interest in. And all of the flood of 792 00:41:52,640 --> 00:41:57,400 investment that you saw go into Indonesia, a huge amount of that 793 00:41:57,400 --> 00:42:00,440 was concentrated in what is called Morawali Industrial Park. 794 00:42:00,720 --> 00:42:03,440 And the reason Morawali Industrial Park attracted 795 00:42:03,480 --> 00:42:09,120 phenomenal sums of, of foreign capital is because like I, I, 796 00:42:09,120 --> 00:42:12,440 the, the Indonesian government wanted to focus on the value add 797 00:42:12,440 --> 00:42:15,960 in the downstream, but they also provided the necessary tax 798 00:42:15,960 --> 00:42:19,760 breaks to warrant the huge upfront capital investment that 799 00:42:19,760 --> 00:42:22,000 was required to develop and build out that industry. 800 00:42:22,000 --> 00:42:24,840 You don't just get industry, decide to put a, put a smelter 801 00:42:24,840 --> 00:42:27,360 there because you're, you're all of a sudden, you know, banning 802 00:42:27,360 --> 00:42:30,040 the export you've got, you've got to create the conditions 803 00:42:30,040 --> 00:42:32,880 that allow for it. So with Oracle nickel project, 804 00:42:32,880 --> 00:42:37,000 for example, concessions, these these concessions include a 100% 805 00:42:37,000 --> 00:42:39,600 corporate income tax reduction for 10 years from the 806 00:42:39,600 --> 00:42:42,120 commencement of commercial production, followed by a 50% 807 00:42:42,120 --> 00:42:43,520 reduction for the next two years. 808 00:42:44,200 --> 00:42:47,720 And I also got a 10 year exemption from withholding and 809 00:42:47,720 --> 00:42:50,280 tax collection by third parties on sale proceeds. 810 00:42:50,280 --> 00:42:53,640 So those that's the environment that you know, let's you kind of 811 00:42:53,640 --> 00:42:56,840 go to your board and and warrant the the huge amount to make a 812 00:42:56,840 --> 00:43:00,080 very long term kind of capital investment because you're 813 00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:02,840 thinking, you're thinking about an asset 30 year mine life 814 00:43:03,160 --> 00:43:04,960 discount that back. It all works out if we get these 815 00:43:04,960 --> 00:43:09,120 tax breaks and all of a sudden the royalty gets lifted. 816 00:43:09,120 --> 00:43:11,760 So who gives a who gives a shit about your corporate tax break 817 00:43:12,000 --> 00:43:13,840 because you've got no tax because you don't have any net 818 00:43:13,840 --> 00:43:14,880 profit anymore. Like. 819 00:43:15,840 --> 00:43:20,360 Is that is that a hell of a? Have they provided similar 820 00:43:20,360 --> 00:43:22,920 concessions to other? There were similar ones, the 821 00:43:22,920 --> 00:43:25,240 companies, there were inconsistencies by project, but 822 00:43:25,240 --> 00:43:27,280 there were that they were same ballpark. 823 00:43:27,280 --> 00:43:30,320 Yeah, yeah, yeah. It was one of a few. 824 00:43:30,600 --> 00:43:31,920 Five different government. Industrial. 825 00:43:32,520 --> 00:43:34,200 The same government. Same government? 826 00:43:34,320 --> 00:43:36,360 Yeah, well, oh, sorry, you mean that? 827 00:43:36,800 --> 00:43:39,360 When when they provided the tax breaks compared to now 828 00:43:39,360 --> 00:43:40,920 potentially lifting the royalties. 829 00:43:41,440 --> 00:43:45,000 I'm not sure on the differences in what the the previous 830 00:43:45,000 --> 00:43:47,520 administration, administration kind of stand for, but. 831 00:43:47,520 --> 00:43:48,480 It is a different government, though. 832 00:43:48,680 --> 00:43:50,400 It's a different different. Government. 833 00:43:50,400 --> 00:43:51,480 The joys of different governments. 834 00:43:51,480 --> 00:43:55,680 Yeah, yeah. And yeah, this, this is. 835 00:43:55,680 --> 00:43:58,760 And when you hear about the way that the majors are talking 836 00:43:58,760 --> 00:44:02,680 about investing in, in Argentina at the moment, it's because that 837 00:44:02,680 --> 00:44:05,280 that framework, the Riggy framework, actually provides 838 00:44:05,320 --> 00:44:09,040 absolute certainty over a / a long period that is required to 839 00:44:09,040 --> 00:44:11,160 amortize the huge amount of investment that you're embarking 840 00:44:11,160 --> 00:44:14,120 on. If you imagine just like putting 841 00:44:14,120 --> 00:44:16,280 hundreds of millions or billions of dollars into a project in 842 00:44:16,280 --> 00:44:18,360 Indonesia and you get these tax breaks, happy days, and then all 843 00:44:18,360 --> 00:44:21,720 of a sudden the royalty's up so you don't have any profit 844 00:44:21,720 --> 00:44:25,520 anymore, like massive rug pool. But if you have certainty in a 845 00:44:25,520 --> 00:44:27,600 regulatory framework for a period of time that you know 846 00:44:27,640 --> 00:44:30,960 your downside is protected too, that actually lets you make the 847 00:44:30,960 --> 00:44:32,480 infrastructure like investment that's required. 848 00:44:33,080 --> 00:44:36,480 There is no, in my view, absolute certainty in, in 849 00:44:36,480 --> 00:44:38,920 mining, you're building a project in someone else's 850 00:44:38,920 --> 00:44:41,080 country. You can get as comfortable as 851 00:44:41,080 --> 00:44:42,240 you want. And I think Riggy has done a 852 00:44:42,240 --> 00:44:44,400 great job to, to get people to that level. 853 00:44:45,240 --> 00:44:47,160 But you're building something in Argentina. 854 00:44:47,400 --> 00:44:51,400 And when Malays out out of government, things could change. 855 00:44:51,400 --> 00:44:56,400 You know, I hope they don't and they probably won't, but 856 00:44:56,400 --> 00:44:58,320 there's, there's always that, that risk. 857 00:44:58,320 --> 00:45:02,040 We seen changes across the world in almost in almost every 858 00:45:02,040 --> 00:45:04,280 country. You know, it's that is part of 859 00:45:04,280 --> 00:45:07,040 the risk of investing in mining, unfortunately. 860 00:45:07,480 --> 00:45:12,360 Do you think nickel sulfide developers and X producers would 861 00:45:12,360 --> 00:45:15,320 look at this as a positive? Yeah, For them, yeah. 862 00:45:15,320 --> 00:45:18,720 They'd be thinking this is the sort of potential Indonesian 863 00:45:18,720 --> 00:45:21,760 catalyst that could change the landscape. 864 00:45:22,680 --> 00:45:25,640 These are the the cracks that start to emerge. 865 00:45:26,200 --> 00:45:30,240 Commodities are cyclical, you know, and for, for the varying 866 00:45:30,240 --> 00:45:32,840 factors in like this case, the government wanting a bigger 867 00:45:32,840 --> 00:45:35,160 piece of the pie. That's nothing new. 868 00:45:35,280 --> 00:45:36,480 Nothing new under the sun there, right? 869 00:45:36,800 --> 00:45:39,000 Yeah. And it's a, it's a incrementally 870 00:45:39,000 --> 00:45:41,080 huge piece of the pie that they're wanting. 871 00:45:41,080 --> 00:45:42,120 I mean. It is the pie. 872 00:45:42,120 --> 00:45:42,360 Yeah. It's. 873 00:45:45,000 --> 00:45:47,200 Fascinating. Really, really interesting. 874 00:45:47,640 --> 00:45:48,560 That's a good, that was a good one. 875 00:45:49,080 --> 00:45:50,520 We'll see. We'll see where it goes and 876 00:45:50,960 --> 00:45:53,760 whether that does in in due course, become legislation. 877 00:45:54,520 --> 00:45:56,920 Yeah, well, well, very good lads. 878 00:45:59,440 --> 00:46:01,520 Get your tickets to Aussie Man. Yeah. 879 00:46:02,080 --> 00:46:06,240 And it's 100 bucks. That's not gonna go up by 15% 880 00:46:06,440 --> 00:46:10,560 unexpectedly. It's just 100 bucks off some 881 00:46:10,640 --> 00:46:13,960 other contractors that will buy Chuck a random royalty on you 882 00:46:14,360 --> 00:46:18,880 MMS grounded see if it ground sports CR insurance kadrill a 883 00:46:18,920 --> 00:46:23,400 transparent invoice. No chance of a bloody royalty WA 884 00:46:23,440 --> 00:46:26,160 water balls sweet quattro project engineer across boundary 885 00:46:26,160 --> 00:46:30,360 energy Urdu money. More information contained in 886 00:46:30,360 --> 00:46:33,160 this episode of Money of Mine is of general nature only and does 887 00:46:33,160 --> 00:46:35,960 not take into account the objectives, financial situation 888 00:46:36,000 --> 00:46:38,000 or needs of any particular person. 889 00:46:38,320 --> 00:46:41,360 Before making any investment decision, you should consult 890 00:46:41,360 --> 00:46:44,440 with your financial advisor and consider how appropriate the 891 00:46:44,440 --> 00:46:48,120 advice is to your objectives, financial situation and needs.