1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,880 Righto money miners, just savvy ground sport. 2 00:00:02,880 --> 00:00:04,400 That's all you got a bloody think about. 3 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:07,480 This episode is brought to you by Derek Hurd and the bloody 4 00:00:07,480 --> 00:00:10,440 team. Split sets all the way to D 5 00:00:10,440 --> 00:00:13,040 bolts, good mesh, all the ways to seismic. 6 00:00:13,040 --> 00:00:16,960 Seismic mesh. Just the best ground sport in 7 00:00:16,960 --> 00:00:19,680 the world and the best, most reliable supplier for it. 8 00:00:20,080 --> 00:00:21,880 Ground best in the business. It's in the night. 9 00:00:22,280 --> 00:00:24,480 It it is in the night now that's grounded, isn't it? 10 00:00:26,000 --> 00:00:29,040 Seem to ground support, yes. Does support the ground? 11 00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:30,880 Yeah, it does. It does. 12 00:00:30,880 --> 00:00:32,360 Freebie for you there, Grant. Right. 13 00:00:32,360 --> 00:00:34,080 What do we got today? Oh God. 14 00:00:34,640 --> 00:00:36,720 Let's just RIP straight. We got a chance. 15 00:00:36,720 --> 00:00:39,840 So we're pretty much we, I buggered up, we had to record, 16 00:00:39,960 --> 00:00:42,320 re record one of my bits and then we got to the end and 17 00:00:42,320 --> 00:00:44,800 realised we didn't even fucking record any of it. 18 00:00:45,360 --> 00:00:48,960 So we can confirm hopefully if you listen to this record and 19 00:00:48,960 --> 00:00:50,280 this one. Can we have the same 20 00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:53,160 conversation again without it sounding like we're having the 21 00:00:53,160 --> 00:00:56,320 same conversation again? Well, even the second time was a 22 00:00:56,320 --> 00:00:59,320 bit different to the first time, so we'll see how we go. 23 00:00:59,320 --> 00:01:02,680 I reckon we're talking about first Quantum, we're talking 24 00:01:02,680 --> 00:01:07,000 about Cascabel and Soulgold. We're talking about a bit of 25 00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:09,680 Wheeling and dealing in the uranium space at the at the 26 00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:13,680 junior end with Boss Energy and Laramide and a little overview 27 00:01:13,680 --> 00:01:19,560 on Orabanda at the expiration end of their bits out in the 28 00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:20,680 goldfields. Let's go. 29 00:01:21,000 --> 00:01:22,200 Yeah, right. Let's RIP in. 30 00:01:22,200 --> 00:01:27,000 So boss, boss have acquired come out this morning, acquired stake 31 00:01:27,000 --> 00:01:31,120 in Laramide. So this fills the gap of where 32 00:01:31,440 --> 00:01:34,080 the extra bloody listed investments they had that we 33 00:01:34,120 --> 00:01:36,120 didn't know where it was in the quarterly. 34 00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:39,560 I think they put 10 million US into Encore, but they had 30 odd 35 00:01:39,560 --> 00:01:43,640 million in listed investments. So we're thinking they've either 36 00:01:43,640 --> 00:01:45,480 topped up Encore or they bought something else. 37 00:01:45,480 --> 00:01:50,320 So because it says today they've got 9% of Larimod at Canadian, 38 00:01:50,320 --> 00:01:54,680 $0.60 a share and that's on top, that takes them to 18.4 total. 39 00:01:54,680 --> 00:02:00,120 So they obviously held 9.4 under custodian which makes up for 40 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:02,280 that listed investment things. They're obviously being chipping 41 00:02:02,280 --> 00:02:04,400 away at that. So I think Larimod, we've talked 42 00:02:04,400 --> 00:02:07,800 about them before. I think they say their flagship 43 00:02:07,800 --> 00:02:11,200 asset is the Westmoreland uranium project in Queensland 44 00:02:11,480 --> 00:02:13,680 and they've obviously they've also got some stuff in New 45 00:02:13,680 --> 00:02:17,920 Mexico which sort of has a link to to boss in Hawaii as well, 46 00:02:18,480 --> 00:02:20,600 maybe do. You think the appeal is the the 47 00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:22,120 Queensland stuff or the New Mexico stuff? 48 00:02:22,160 --> 00:02:24,400 More I think. A bit of both because 49 00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:29,920 Queensland's got a moratorium. Moratorium got it right. 50 00:02:29,920 --> 00:02:31,240 That's the third time if I can't. 51 00:02:31,240 --> 00:02:35,160 Moratorium on the uranium which? Means it's just not allowed. 52 00:02:35,160 --> 00:02:38,240 What do I say, Mauritanian? Mauritanium. 53 00:02:40,960 --> 00:02:45,080 So but the, I think the the, I think the Libs are back in power 54 00:02:45,080 --> 00:02:47,360 there now. So who knows what's going to 55 00:02:47,360 --> 00:02:49,080 happen there. But essentially it's a no 56 00:02:49,120 --> 00:02:51,000 uranium mining zone at the moment. 57 00:02:51,000 --> 00:02:55,200 So it's a bit of a counter cyclical play to purchase stuff 58 00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:58,720 in there. I think God, I think the I think 59 00:02:58,720 --> 00:03:01,520 the main one there, I'm not sure, but I think Pat, the one 60 00:03:01,520 --> 00:03:05,480 that paladins got in Queensland. I memory someone told me they 61 00:03:05,480 --> 00:03:08,240 paid 1.2 billion for that back in the day. 62 00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:10,840 I hope. It was sense 1.2 billion so. 63 00:03:11,360 --> 00:03:15,680 It wasn't unfortunately. And then Paladin unbecame 64 00:03:15,680 --> 00:03:18,680 Paladin you'd say so all right, what they've got. 65 00:03:18,680 --> 00:03:21,520 So this they did a pay for this Westmoreland one in Queensland. 66 00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:26,080 They did a pay a back in 2016 and I think that add CapEx of US 67 00:03:26,440 --> 00:03:30,440 300, 10 million or something. So I think that all has to be 68 00:03:30,440 --> 00:03:32,320 redone. They, they did upgrade the 69 00:03:32,320 --> 00:03:36,120 resource not long ago. So it's actually it's the 70 00:03:36,120 --> 00:03:41,520 indicator resource is people like 50,000,000 lbs at 770 PPM 71 00:03:41,520 --> 00:03:45,200 then got 17,000,000 of pounds inferred as well. 72 00:03:45,200 --> 00:03:48,000 But it's a it's an open pit. So it's not an ISR, it's 73 00:03:48,000 --> 00:03:54,800 actually a open pit operation. So it's but why there's mining 74 00:03:54,800 --> 00:03:58,560 lease applications submitted, it's obviously the moratorium on 75 00:03:58,560 --> 00:04:01,800 uranium mining there. So it's not something in the 76 00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:06,840 bloody near future anyway. It's it's a £4 million proposed 77 00:04:06,840 --> 00:04:09,920 production capacity there for a 2,000,000 tonne plant. 78 00:04:10,400 --> 00:04:13,280 Then the stuff in New Mexico they've also got. 79 00:04:13,280 --> 00:04:19,800 So that's this Church Rocks. That's that's a nice one. 80 00:04:19,800 --> 00:04:22,200 So that's £50 million at point O 8%. 81 00:04:22,200 --> 00:04:25,800 So that's 800 PPM. So it's sort of similar to what 82 00:04:25,800 --> 00:04:29,560 honeymoon wells got that's at sort of the final permitting 83 00:04:29,560 --> 00:04:33,000 stages by the sounds they got like a restoration permit to get 84 00:04:33,000 --> 00:04:36,720 past, but the actual uranium mine and processing permit has 85 00:04:36,840 --> 00:04:43,680 been given to them. So essentially the the there's 86 00:04:43,680 --> 00:04:45,960 not much of a link with what though, because boss picked up 87 00:04:45,960 --> 00:04:49,000 the exploration ground earlier this week. 88 00:04:49,560 --> 00:04:54,520 They've got like that earning process for to get up to 80%, 89 00:04:54,520 --> 00:04:57,440 then they can pay 60 million for to get to 90%. 90 00:04:57,640 --> 00:05:00,040 But that's I think that's more near Ranger. 91 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:04,360 This the one in Westmoreland crosses over to NT that looks 92 00:05:04,360 --> 00:05:08,480 pretty unexplored, but it's sort of in a in a different spot to 93 00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:09,960 what they picked up earlier in the week. 94 00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:13,480 But then I guess the stuff in New Mexico is right in and 95 00:05:13,480 --> 00:05:17,520 around on course assets in New Mexico. 96 00:05:17,520 --> 00:05:23,320 So if there is a potential future where Boss does something 97 00:05:23,320 --> 00:05:25,520 with Encore, like we know they're only ain't got that. 98 00:05:25,520 --> 00:05:28,280 They've got a minor equity interest at the moment, but it's 99 00:05:28,280 --> 00:05:30,200 all at the project level with Alta Mesa. 100 00:05:30,200 --> 00:05:33,240 But you know, as we said, Encore's under a bit of 101 00:05:33,520 --> 00:05:37,160 financial stress at the moment with the money they owe BOSS and 102 00:05:37,480 --> 00:05:40,400 operations not performing in the management change. 103 00:05:40,400 --> 00:05:43,760 So I'll just be interested to see if anything comes about 104 00:05:43,760 --> 00:05:46,040 there. So it looks like, you know, sort 105 00:05:46,040 --> 00:05:48,000 of chipping away at these things, putting them haven't 106 00:05:48,000 --> 00:05:51,320 actually taken anything over yet, but chipping away at these 107 00:05:52,480 --> 00:05:57,360 companies and potential projects that sort of might be changing 108 00:05:57,360 --> 00:05:59,280 the narrative a bit is not just a producer. 109 00:05:59,280 --> 00:06:03,960 There could be some cumulative growth pounds there that could 110 00:06:03,960 --> 00:06:07,480 start coming into the story. So we'll wait and see what 111 00:06:07,480 --> 00:06:10,040 bloody happens there. I did that hoops quicker last 112 00:06:10,040 --> 00:06:11,680 time. Way quicker. 113 00:06:11,760 --> 00:06:14,280 That's a fascinating, fascinating part of the world 114 00:06:14,280 --> 00:06:17,200 there. As we as we said just before New 115 00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:20,000 Mexico, people know from from Breaking Bad in the area and 116 00:06:20,000 --> 00:06:23,880 what Mesa the mill that's the energy fuels one in the place 117 00:06:23,880 --> 00:06:27,200 called Moab, which is where the first uranium was discovered in 118 00:06:27,200 --> 00:06:30,640 the States and the Los Alamos laboratory where were the 119 00:06:30,640 --> 00:06:33,320 smartest physicists in the world all went to work on the 120 00:06:33,320 --> 00:06:36,800 Manhattan Project. So a long and and super, super 121 00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:39,120 interesting history in that part of the world, Maddie. 122 00:06:39,280 --> 00:06:42,040 Oh, just yeah, I was just a what was his name? 123 00:06:42,040 --> 00:06:47,840 What was the Mexican's name in breaking bag to Hector 124 00:06:47,840 --> 00:06:51,360 Salamanca? Yeah, he's from Albuquerque. 125 00:06:51,880 --> 00:06:55,160 And the, well, the first guy, oh, forget his, forget his name, 126 00:06:55,160 --> 00:06:58,320 the loose one that just used to bloody smash it with a knife and 127 00:06:58,320 --> 00:07:00,200 hook it in with. Anyway, we're off. 128 00:07:00,200 --> 00:07:04,720 Track in in Season 1 I remember that's one of the few shows I've 129 00:07:04,720 --> 00:07:06,240 watched twice. Actually it's. 130 00:07:06,480 --> 00:07:10,040 A very, very addictive you. Don't even watch TV mate, you 131 00:07:10,040 --> 00:07:14,360 just listen to podcasts. Mate this was over like at least 132 00:07:14,360 --> 00:07:15,720 a year period. It took me a while. 133 00:07:16,880 --> 00:07:20,400 Righto Trav, is Kobride Panama coming back? 134 00:07:21,000 --> 00:07:23,840 I am very curious about the answer to that question, Maddie. 135 00:07:24,000 --> 00:07:28,760 I think, I think there's a, yeah, big interesting question 136 00:07:28,760 --> 00:07:31,720 to be posed about whether Cobra Panem is coming back in the near 137 00:07:31,720 --> 00:07:33,040 future. And also like, does that mean 138 00:07:33,040 --> 00:07:35,840 that first quantum is, is is undervalued right now? 139 00:07:35,840 --> 00:07:39,760 Because yeah, before I start, I think the answer to, to both of 140 00:07:39,760 --> 00:07:42,480 the above could probabilistically be yes. 141 00:07:42,480 --> 00:07:45,480 But this is this is just my view based on kind of, you know, 142 00:07:45,480 --> 00:07:48,720 weighing up my view of the probabilities, but on, on the 143 00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:50,480 public information. But I might be wrong too, right. 144 00:07:50,480 --> 00:07:53,440 So just I'll take you on the journey that I've been on to to 145 00:07:53,440 --> 00:07:57,840 try and articulate why why I think this way and I'll flag 146 00:07:57,840 --> 00:07:59,920 this is just a bit of a prelude. Like I'm not going to be 147 00:07:59,920 --> 00:08:01,960 exhausted here. In fact, I've got more work to 148 00:08:01,960 --> 00:08:04,280 do, but this is just kind of where my thinking's at right 149 00:08:04,280 --> 00:08:06,920 now. Firstly, I want to show you the 150 00:08:06,920 --> 00:08:11,000 historic just price to NAV trading multiple of first 151 00:08:11,000 --> 00:08:14,120 quantum versus it's pureplay copper pier. 152 00:08:14,120 --> 00:08:16,760 So, you know, think the likes of on this chart, I've got sand 153 00:08:16,760 --> 00:08:18,920 fire, Antofagasta, Ivanhoe, Freeport. 154 00:08:19,600 --> 00:08:22,640 And also in the blue there at the bottom, you can see that is 155 00:08:22,640 --> 00:08:25,840 the rolling price to NAV ratio of first quantum. 156 00:08:26,480 --> 00:08:30,520 And this is simply just pulled from cap IQ consensus rolling 157 00:08:30,520 --> 00:08:32,280 Pnav. This quantum's Pnav. 158 00:08:32,280 --> 00:08:36,799 You can see it just falls off a Cliff around October 2023. 159 00:08:36,799 --> 00:08:40,880 And that's when shit just hit the fan in in relation to its 160 00:08:40,880 --> 00:08:44,640 Cobra Panama asset. But we, we kind of, we've 161 00:08:44,640 --> 00:08:46,800 explored what's happened there in the past, but the government 162 00:08:46,800 --> 00:08:49,480 deemed it unconstitutional after a bunch of, you know, 163 00:08:49,480 --> 00:08:53,720 environmental pushback. And, and when the P rolling P 164 00:08:53,720 --> 00:08:55,360 NAV falls off a chart, that's because it's share price fell 165 00:08:55,360 --> 00:08:57,600 off a chart. And, and then since then it 166 00:08:57,600 --> 00:08:59,520 can't, it's trended towards where it is today, which is 167 00:08:59,520 --> 00:09:03,280 about 0.84 times NAV. But before it fell off the 168 00:09:03,280 --> 00:09:06,160 Cliff, it was, it's historic, historically basically just 169 00:09:06,160 --> 00:09:09,760 trended along one times NAV. And if that was a whole story, 170 00:09:10,160 --> 00:09:12,280 it wouldn't be that interesting to me. 171 00:09:13,440 --> 00:09:15,800 Well, but what this chart isn't capturing is the fact that the 172 00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:18,160 the research analysts who are covering first quantum, they've 173 00:09:18,160 --> 00:09:21,840 all become they've all begun discounting the evaluation of 174 00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:24,200 Cobra Panama. So, so they aren't they aren't 175 00:09:24,200 --> 00:09:26,760 keeping the same NAV in the denominator of that equation. 176 00:09:26,760 --> 00:09:30,440 In fact, they've generally been risking it by 50%. 177 00:09:30,440 --> 00:09:32,480 And I'll show you what I mean, flash it up. 178 00:09:32,480 --> 00:09:37,040 Now here's the RBC valuation, for example, the the the NAV per 179 00:09:37,040 --> 00:09:41,120 share that they derive for when they're valuing first quantum 180 00:09:41,120 --> 00:09:43,840 is, is in Canadian dollars $19.00 per share. 181 00:09:43,840 --> 00:09:47,440 But to get to that, they've risked the cash flows from the, 182 00:09:47,480 --> 00:09:50,240 you know, the key Cobra Panama asset by 50%. 183 00:09:50,600 --> 00:09:53,560 If those cash flows were unrisked, IE 100% attributable 184 00:09:53,560 --> 00:09:56,600 to 1st quantum, it would be $30 per share. 185 00:09:57,080 --> 00:09:59,280 And that's a massive, a massive difference. 186 00:09:59,280 --> 00:10:02,240 Probably a lot. The the, the consensus 187 00:10:02,240 --> 00:10:04,960 calculation for cap IQ though, it's what it's pulling is the 188 00:10:05,080 --> 00:10:07,800 that $19.00 per share number, not the $30 per share number. 189 00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:12,320 So it's taking the risk NAV into equation, not the UN risked NAV 190 00:10:12,320 --> 00:10:14,680 for an asset that is it's effectively like, you know, 191 00:10:14,680 --> 00:10:16,560 developed. It just needs the, the political 192 00:10:16,560 --> 00:10:19,720 certainty. Now look at city exact same 193 00:10:19,720 --> 00:10:21,960 thing. They're valuing Cobra Panama at 194 00:10:21,960 --> 00:10:25,920 50% of its NPV due to the uncertainty Scotiabank double 195 00:10:25,920 --> 00:10:27,560 punishing Cobra Panama valuation. 196 00:10:27,720 --> 00:10:32,160 The NAV per share of the company that they they derive is 1631 197 00:10:32,560 --> 00:10:36,960 based on Cobra Panama scenario that is risk 70% and has a 4% by 198 00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:40,040 discount rate than other assets and assumes 20% of the mine is 199 00:10:40,040 --> 00:10:42,400 ceded to Panama. So you can't you can't get the 200 00:10:42,400 --> 00:10:45,200 picture here. The, the, the consensus P NAV 201 00:10:45,200 --> 00:10:48,320 for first quantum is low already like point .84 now, but that's 202 00:10:48,320 --> 00:10:54,480 also using a, an, an A a risk NAV that that you know, is, is 203 00:10:54,720 --> 00:10:58,200 punitive to, to cobra Panama as a real economic potential. 204 00:10:58,760 --> 00:11:01,440 So it's kind of up to you to, to come to a conclusion about how 205 00:11:01,440 --> 00:11:03,920 much that economic potential is actually going to be flowing to 206 00:11:03,920 --> 00:11:07,040 1st quantum as, as things come towards hopefully a bit of a 207 00:11:07,040 --> 00:11:09,680 conclusion. And, and this is interesting 208 00:11:09,680 --> 00:11:12,360 because we're likely to get, I think we could be likely to get 209 00:11:12,360 --> 00:11:15,760 some sort of agreement or at least some, some sort of, you 210 00:11:15,760 --> 00:11:19,400 know, more certainty or clarity around what is going to happen 211 00:11:19,400 --> 00:11:21,760 in relation to Cobra Panama in the next 12 months. 212 00:11:22,920 --> 00:11:25,640 If the outcome's positive or at least provides the certainty and 213 00:11:25,640 --> 00:11:29,200 clarity required, like first Quantum could could return to 214 00:11:29,200 --> 00:11:31,720 its historic price to have multiple of, of, of one times. 215 00:11:32,440 --> 00:11:33,760 The way I'm thinking about it is this. 216 00:11:34,800 --> 00:11:39,400 If you mathematically just assume that first Quantum other 217 00:11:39,400 --> 00:11:42,200 assets, so everything other than COBRA Panama should be valued at 218 00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:47,400 its historic ratio of one times NAV, then then based on first 219 00:11:47,400 --> 00:11:51,680 Quantum's current share price of Canadian 1778 per share today. 220 00:11:52,480 --> 00:11:55,840 If you if you put that into the equation, assume the rest is one 221 00:11:55,840 --> 00:11:59,280 times they have back out. What is the market assuming your 222 00:11:59,360 --> 00:12:03,120 your P NAV attributable to COBRA Panama yesterday for within 223 00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:05,680 first Quantum evaluation. When you do that math, you get 224 00:12:05,680 --> 00:12:10,160 somewhere in the vicinity of you know point 0.4 to 0.6 times NAV. 225 00:12:10,160 --> 00:12:14,360 So, you know, 40 to 60% of the, of the cash flows of the 226 00:12:14,360 --> 00:12:17,600 economic potential of COBRA Panama that under the status quo 227 00:12:17,600 --> 00:12:20,040 would have gone to 1st quantum are kind of being attributed to, 228 00:12:20,200 --> 00:12:23,480 to 1st quantum today. And what is that like? 229 00:12:23,480 --> 00:12:28,920 What does that mean? It, it means that the, the, the 230 00:12:28,920 --> 00:12:32,040 market is not willing to give it any, any any more than it than 231 00:12:32,040 --> 00:12:34,240 that because of the, the uncertainty associated with it, 232 00:12:34,240 --> 00:12:36,200 the potential that they're going to have to see some of it and 233 00:12:36,200 --> 00:12:39,000 all those sort of factors. So I think that what investors 234 00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:41,840 should be doing and probably are doing is like thinking is that, 235 00:12:41,880 --> 00:12:44,520 is that a reasonable, is that a reasonable discount or is it 236 00:12:44,520 --> 00:12:47,040 unreasonable? And I, I, I come to the 237 00:12:47,360 --> 00:12:50,480 intuition, well, my, my, my belief is that that's more 238 00:12:50,480 --> 00:12:52,080 punitive than, than it should be. 239 00:12:52,080 --> 00:12:55,520 This is a phenomenal asset. And, and when I kind of look at 240 00:12:55,520 --> 00:13:00,040 the, the, the geopolitical dynamics in, in Panama, I also 241 00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:03,440 think it's more likely than not that you'll have, you know, 242 00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:05,600 some, some, some clarity around the situation and hopefully an 243 00:13:05,600 --> 00:13:07,160 agreement with the government in the near future. 244 00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:11,280 Too, do you think because it's signed effectively, there's a, 245 00:13:11,520 --> 00:13:14,440 they're saying that they could potentially lose 40 to 60% of 246 00:13:14,440 --> 00:13:17,400 the project, but is that, has there been any numbers put 247 00:13:17,400 --> 00:13:19,760 around what they think they might have to say to the 248 00:13:19,760 --> 00:13:23,160 government or not? I, I, no, I think, and I think 249 00:13:23,160 --> 00:13:26,920 the way that this, like PEP unfolds is there's an 250 00:13:26,920 --> 00:13:30,400 arbitration process and there's hearing dates already for an 251 00:13:30,400 --> 00:13:32,960 arbitration process. And Panama's not want to go 252 00:13:33,120 --> 00:13:36,800 going to, not going to want to go through the whole, the length 253 00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:39,520 of that arbitration process. The, the, the ways that 254 00:13:39,680 --> 00:13:42,920 countries do get punished by international arbitration 255 00:13:42,920 --> 00:13:44,800 process is something we should cover in future podcasts. 256 00:13:44,800 --> 00:13:48,240 But, but they're actually like very severe things that are 257 00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:50,560 imposed upon a country when it goes through international 258 00:13:50,560 --> 00:13:52,840 arbitration, including like restrictions around, you know, 259 00:13:52,840 --> 00:13:54,880 the World Bank and funding rates and all that sort of stuff. 260 00:13:54,880 --> 00:13:56,920 So you don't want to go through all of that. 261 00:13:58,040 --> 00:14:01,440 And so you come to a settlement and a settlement like, I'd find 262 00:14:01,440 --> 00:14:04,880 it pretty unrealistic that that that first quantum would have to 263 00:14:04,880 --> 00:14:06,600 see, I don't know, half of its asset. 264 00:14:06,600 --> 00:14:10,400 I think like 15, twenty, 25%, like could be a settlement 265 00:14:10,400 --> 00:14:13,400 ground. But so, you know, and the market 266 00:14:13,400 --> 00:14:18,040 just wants certainty as well. So, yeah, I, and I think if you 267 00:14:18,040 --> 00:14:23,040 just look at Panama, like where, where it's at, when when she hit 268 00:14:23,040 --> 00:14:25,080 the fan, it was a different government in place. 269 00:14:25,080 --> 00:14:29,400 So there was a big kind of campaign in the lead up to, to 270 00:14:29,400 --> 00:14:33,640 an election which which sort of, you know, culminated in, in, in 271 00:14:33,640 --> 00:14:35,040 a lot of protests around this asset. 272 00:14:35,280 --> 00:14:39,000 You remember, it's kind of fittingly Leonardo, Leonardo 273 00:14:39,000 --> 00:14:42,920 DiCaprio. He he he protested the the the 274 00:14:43,080 --> 00:14:46,240 cobra Panama like for some. Now he's on the Australian 275 00:14:46,240 --> 00:14:49,480 bauxite protests. How weird like like. 276 00:14:50,240 --> 00:14:52,000 The wolf. The wolf's not happy. 277 00:14:54,640 --> 00:14:59,440 Yeah, Leo. There the the company didn't it 278 00:14:59,680 --> 00:15:02,640 it, it didn't, I think it admits this as well, you know, in 279 00:15:02,640 --> 00:15:07,600 hindsight, do the right things to manage its social engagement 280 00:15:07,600 --> 00:15:09,720 with the community. They didn't take the the front 281 00:15:09,720 --> 00:15:12,000 foot of that. And by the time they kind of 282 00:15:12,000 --> 00:15:13,600 realized, you know, it was too late. 283 00:15:13,600 --> 00:15:17,680 They didn't under score how important what they were doing 284 00:15:17,920 --> 00:15:21,560 was for the local community as well as the broader world, you 285 00:15:21,560 --> 00:15:24,360 know, and it got away from them before they knew it. 286 00:15:25,280 --> 00:15:28,400 Yeah, undoubtedly there were plenty of, you know, plenty of 287 00:15:28,400 --> 00:15:30,760 the Panamanian public on the on the side of the the 288 00:15:30,760 --> 00:15:35,040 environmentalists and but as of May 2024, change of government 289 00:15:35,440 --> 00:15:39,520 elections or Jose Rahul Molino elected as a new president. 290 00:15:40,960 --> 00:15:44,240 And so the government's changed. Plus, the geopolitical layup has 291 00:15:44,440 --> 00:15:47,800 has evolved massively since since Trump was elected to in 292 00:15:47,800 --> 00:15:52,000 late 2024, Trump expressed his intentions to take back the 293 00:15:52,000 --> 00:15:55,160 Panama Canal from the control of the Chinese following a pressure 294 00:15:55,160 --> 00:15:58,200 from the United States Black Rock LED consortium that 295 00:15:58,200 --> 00:16:02,120 acquired control in key ports near Panama Canal. 296 00:16:02,120 --> 00:16:03,840 So this just last week this deal popped up. 297 00:16:04,160 --> 00:16:09,400 It was AUS $19 billion deal where yeah, this consortium 298 00:16:09,480 --> 00:16:12,320 acquired a bunch of port assets, including a few a few near 299 00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:14,800 Panama. All all of the geopolitical 300 00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:18,200 football I felt was just sort of mounting pressure for the for 301 00:16:18,280 --> 00:16:22,000 the new president of of Panama. And maybe that deal was a a 302 00:16:22,080 --> 00:16:24,880 little bit of relief, but I think the country still needs a 303 00:16:24,880 --> 00:16:27,320 win here. And their local trade partners 304 00:16:27,320 --> 00:16:30,320 are clearly, you know, getting a bit more spicy and fierce and 305 00:16:31,120 --> 00:16:33,920 Cobra Panama, it is a significant asset in the context 306 00:16:33,920 --> 00:16:36,600 of the country, in the context of the, the government revenue 307 00:16:36,600 --> 00:16:40,520 generation, not at all compared to the canal itself, Like that's 308 00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:42,360 just a phenomenal revenue generator. 309 00:16:42,360 --> 00:16:44,080 But it is, it is a significant asset. 310 00:16:44,080 --> 00:16:47,680 And when you read between the lines of the, the commentary 311 00:16:47,680 --> 00:16:50,920 that comes out of both like first Quantum and, and Franco 312 00:16:50,920 --> 00:16:52,880 Nevada, listen to their, you know, recent quarterly or 313 00:16:52,880 --> 00:16:55,440 analyst calls or, or presentations, they always get 314 00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:59,400 asked about this because in, in, in Franco Nevada's case, like 315 00:16:59,400 --> 00:17:01,400 they've got a giant stream on this asset too. 316 00:17:02,240 --> 00:17:06,319 It sounds, it sounds like, like from just reading between the 317 00:17:06,319 --> 00:17:08,520 lines of some of their comments, it sounds like the, the 318 00:17:08,520 --> 00:17:11,920 government could even be sort of like pretty supportive of 319 00:17:11,920 --> 00:17:14,040 getting a deal done. But there's a, there's a, a 320 00:17:14,040 --> 00:17:16,640 process that's got to be done to win the public over on that. 321 00:17:16,640 --> 00:17:20,160 This is a, a public campaign to want the, the, the, the will of 322 00:17:20,160 --> 00:17:22,560 the, the Panamanians to convincingly want this to be 323 00:17:22,560 --> 00:17:25,520 back in, in production as well. So, you know, that's a good 324 00:17:25,520 --> 00:17:28,400 starting point to be, and to get to a, an outcome here. 325 00:17:28,520 --> 00:17:30,960 If the, it's, if the population can be won over, then that's it. 326 00:17:30,960 --> 00:17:32,560 You know, that'll be, that'll be fantastic. 327 00:17:32,560 --> 00:17:35,920 So there's a bunch of things that I haven't discussed or even 328 00:17:35,920 --> 00:17:39,720 covered in this brief, brief overview, but they, they're 329 00:17:39,720 --> 00:17:41,200 important and I want to do some more work. 330 00:17:41,200 --> 00:17:44,320 And those are things like that arbitration process, what the 331 00:17:44,320 --> 00:17:46,800 economic split could, could realistically be like that. 332 00:17:47,320 --> 00:17:49,800 What downside case is there if it, if more delays come? 333 00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:53,760 And also first Quantum's balance sheet is, is it is stretched 334 00:17:54,280 --> 00:17:57,080 they're doing a sell down of their, of a, of a minority 335 00:17:57,080 --> 00:17:59,680 interest in, in their Zambian copper mines. 336 00:17:59,680 --> 00:18:02,600 That'll help a bit. But there's, yeah, there's like 337 00:18:02,600 --> 00:18:04,680 they've got to be able to manage their their balance sheet along 338 00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:06,280 the way too. How do you think that Franco 339 00:18:06,280 --> 00:18:13,400 Nevada stream will work if the government take more of a stake 340 00:18:13,400 --> 00:18:16,400 of the project and I assume the same X amount of money still has 341 00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:18,880 to go to Franco Nevada is that? Franco's unaffected. 342 00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:22,120 Yeah, yeah. But but will that really affect 343 00:18:22,120 --> 00:18:24,080 First Quantum? They'll have to pay more royalty 344 00:18:24,080 --> 00:18:26,400 per project ownership. Or so both? 345 00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:33,280 Both both Franco and and 1st Quantum have arbitration 346 00:18:33,280 --> 00:18:35,360 hearings. They're like six months apart. 347 00:18:35,680 --> 00:18:40,720 But first, First Quantum's claim is, is, is it will be like the 348 00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:42,640 settlement that might happen with First Quantum could be like 349 00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:44,600 an an equity split at the project level with the 350 00:18:44,600 --> 00:18:48,000 government. But the stream that Franco have 351 00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:50,080 is at the asset level. So they'll they'll won't be 352 00:18:50,080 --> 00:18:52,640 affected by any kind of. So the government will have to 353 00:18:53,080 --> 00:18:54,600 pay them. The the stream will be stay the 354 00:18:54,600 --> 00:18:55,680 same. Yeah, yeah. 355 00:18:55,760 --> 00:18:59,240 And there might be some, some, yeah arbitration settlement 356 00:18:59,240 --> 00:19:01,720 where where they're going to pay out because of the business 357 00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:03,880 interruption that was caused. If it's all have it gotten? 358 00:19:03,880 --> 00:19:05,000 I don't know how that works. What? 359 00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:08,120 What's the ownership project ownership at the moment? 360 00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:10,000 What does the government know? Any. 361 00:19:10,440 --> 00:19:14,040 First Quantum has 90%, create a resource group has 10%. 362 00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:17,520 Yeah, yeah. Which is the government? 363 00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:20,600 No, no, no. So the government hasn't got any 364 00:19:20,800 --> 00:19:22,480 correct. OK, but they might do. 365 00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:24,960 Yeah, there is an arrangement with the government that like 366 00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:27,520 there was a a royalty that was renegotiated with the government 367 00:19:27,520 --> 00:19:30,720 and that was very favourable to 1st Quantum beforehand. 368 00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:34,720 But the renegotiation saw a a minimum, I think it was a 369 00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:37,880 minimum 375,000,000 that would go towards the the government 370 00:19:37,960 --> 00:19:41,240 every single year as a a rigid kind of outcome, which is a 371 00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:42,480 positive. Yeah, yeah. 372 00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:44,880 Yeah. To under score the importance 373 00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:49,120 point that you said Trav, 5% of the GDP of the country was from 374 00:19:49,120 --> 00:19:51,680 this mine. So you know between 30 and 375 00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:54,040 40,000 people employed directly and indirectly. 376 00:19:54,360 --> 00:19:56,480 It's enormous. Very good, very good. 377 00:19:56,480 --> 00:19:59,080 All that bloody share price talk. 17 bucks a share, 378 00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:02,360 17,000,000 pounds 1717. I'm just bloody. 379 00:20:02,360 --> 00:20:05,320 Can't get 7-8 million drill metres out of the ad boys. 380 00:20:05,560 --> 00:20:09,440 17,000,000 The Diamond. Drill bloody count that is 381 00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:12,520 growing by the day for Swick 17,000,000. 382 00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:16,720 Please let us know when you hit 18. 17 millions. 383 00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:19,520 Not could. Couldn't be many more to go. 384 00:20:19,600 --> 00:20:22,240 How many hours do you reckon would take to get 17,000,000 385 00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:24,080 underground drill meters accomplished? 386 00:20:24,120 --> 00:20:27,400 Quicker than anyone else the record Breakers, especially 387 00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:30,080 those bloody deep X rigs that are five times more powerful 388 00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:36,000 that just drill 2000 plus meters plus or say which is you can 389 00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:39,080 prove resources all the way to the centre of the earth. 390 00:20:39,280 --> 00:20:41,880 Who cares if you can't mind it, it looks good on an ASX 391 00:20:41,880 --> 00:20:44,840 announcement. Get them punching 2000 plus 392 00:20:44,840 --> 00:20:46,920 meters so. I'm so impressed at at 393 00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:48,720 underground drilling. That can do that mate. 394 00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:51,360 It just. I would like everything else. 395 00:20:51,360 --> 00:20:55,040 I don't know who else can. So it's just you think diamond 396 00:20:55,040 --> 00:20:56,520 drilling underground, you think Swick. 397 00:20:56,520 --> 00:21:00,760 It's very easy anyway. Swick, Oh speaking it is some 398 00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:03,000 potential for some 2000 meter holes out here. 399 00:21:03,000 --> 00:21:06,520 JD Soulgold, the old Casa Bell mine. 400 00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:11,760 Yeah, Casa Bell, they could definitely use a A2 kilometer 401 00:21:11,760 --> 00:21:14,520 drill mate because some of the holes they've done in their time 402 00:21:14,520 --> 00:21:17,960 are pretty punchy. I think, I think the company 403 00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:21,560 would be pretty familiar to most listeners, but the TSE and LSE 404 00:21:21,560 --> 00:21:25,920 listed, it's a also headquartered sort of in in 405 00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:28,000 Australia. So they've got sort of strong 406 00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:30,680 Aussie roots in the business management is here and 407 00:21:30,680 --> 00:21:34,720 everything and they're talking about an ASASX listing at the 408 00:21:34,720 --> 00:21:37,920 moment, which we'll get to. But it was, it was revealed 409 00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:42,720 overnight that Jiangxi Copper lifted their interest to 12%. 410 00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:44,960 And this was done with the support of Soulgold. 411 00:21:44,960 --> 00:21:49,360 So this is like another twist in a, in a really, really 412 00:21:49,360 --> 00:21:51,920 interesting corporate history of the company. 413 00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:57,400 And people have speculated for a long time now the best part of a 414 00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:01,000 decade who is going to actually end up being the owner and who 415 00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:05,360 is going to take this thing from being a top quality asset into a 416 00:22:05,360 --> 00:22:08,640 mine. And maybe we are maybe we're one 417 00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:12,760 step closer to that truth. The stock closed up 20% on the 418 00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:15,600 announcement and at one point they were up 34%. 419 00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:17,800 So it was a a big bit of news for the. 420 00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:21,120 Company very interesting mate, I there's a lot of history here. 421 00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:26,360 There is a lot of history and it is very, very interesting 422 00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:30,320 history as well, exploration, corporate sort of battles and 423 00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:33,280 everything kind of in between. But I'll run through the most 424 00:22:33,280 --> 00:22:36,520 important details. So the company sole Gold gets 425 00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:39,480 the concessions from a group called Cornerstone Capital 426 00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:43,960 Resources back in 2012, 2014 they have their discovery hole 427 00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:48,200 in a 5 hole program. One of the hits was about 1300 428 00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:54,160 meters at .6% copper and a bit over .5g per tonne gold. 429 00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:57,320 So you can see in that picture there they put a nice big 430 00:22:57,360 --> 00:23:00,680 landmark for the Canadians so they can understand the the 431 00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:05,040 scale of the the project. This is big copper porphyry 432 00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:08,000 stuff in the Ecuadorian Andy's we're talking about here. 433 00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:13,480 I'll jump forward from there to 2022 and this was a year that 434 00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:16,880 had everything for the company. Early in the year they come out 435 00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:22,080 with the PFS, we're talking about $2.9 billion US MPV19 436 00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:26,880 percent IRR with a big $2.7 billion pre production capital 437 00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:29,520 cost to build this block cave operation. 438 00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:32,400 So we know there's not too many of them going around. 439 00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:37,000 They're pretty complex beasts to get into production about. 440 00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:40,640 In this period, the company is capped at around a billion plus 441 00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:42,920 Aussie dollars. And if you're, if you were to 442 00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:47,040 look now, you're seeing about a $450 million market cap. 443 00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:50,880 So not all has been well since that point in time. 444 00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:55,200 And even in that year, things were sort of getting pretty 445 00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:58,600 shaky. People weren't happy with how 446 00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:01,440 long the PFS was taking. There was this invoicing 447 00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:04,400 scandal, about 6 or $7,000,000 got got siphoned off. 448 00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:07,760 You had ACFO that lasted six weeks in the job and then there 449 00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:11,120 was a sort of failed capital raise, so she departed. 450 00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:14,600 You had this ongoing dispute with Cornerstone, the group that 451 00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:20,920 had sold the asset to sell gold and for for all these kind of 452 00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:24,320 reasons and some more the the stock starts to peel off 453 00:24:24,320 --> 00:24:26,440 throughout the year 22 to where we are today. 454 00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:30,160 They did manage to consolidate the ownership in the asset. 455 00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:34,200 That was an ongoing dispute back end of 2022. 456 00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:36,520 They they do a deal with Cornerstone. 457 00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:38,680 They sort of simplify the ownership structure, but 458 00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:45,000 Cornerstone still held at that point about 7% of the equity in 459 00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:48,320 Salgold. Now with the takeover, this just 460 00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:51,760 becomes sort of own shares as they call them that Salgold 461 00:24:51,760 --> 00:24:54,880 holds in itself. And they are the exact shares 462 00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:57,920 that Jiangxi have bought overnight to bump up their 463 00:24:57,920 --> 00:25:00,960 interest to 12%. Yeah, right. 464 00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:05,960 So it's like a bloody an unbuy back an unbuy. 465 00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:08,480 Back a a buyback that is the. Financial term. 466 00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:10,280 Where you don't cancel the shares. 467 00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:14,600 That's, that's exactly what they call it Maddie to, to round out 468 00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:19,040 on the, the corporate details. There was a lot happening on 469 00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:21,040 this front because they were a takeover target. 470 00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:22,320 You know, everyone wants copyright. 471 00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:26,480 So BHB and Newcrest, who are 13 1/2 percent shareholders each. 472 00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:30,800 But then at the end of that year 22, you get the Cisco royalties 473 00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:34,800 come in, they give $50 million to the company in exchange for 474 00:25:34,800 --> 00:25:38,760 0.6% NSR. So they're getting a royalty and 475 00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:41,520 the major shareholders are super, super, super pissed off. 476 00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:43,840 Like you said when we recorded it the first time. 477 00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:47,200 Maddie Sandeep this way it's just speon. 478 00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:48,960 It was, it was in the papers every day. 479 00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:51,960 Everyone knew about it. Royalties stay on the asset. 480 00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:55,880 They are not good for the company that wants to take them 481 00:25:55,960 --> 00:25:58,680 out in in the long run. Oh and especially something that 482 00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:02,400 bloody big .6% forever. And it's like why if they were a 483 00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:04,760 billion dollars, why they just didn't do a 60 mil capital 484 00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:06,160 raise? Yeah, it's bloody. 485 00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:07,800 It was out there. It's what you do when you. 486 00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:09,480 I don't want to get acquired, Maddie. 487 00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:13,080 Yeah. That that's the poison pill A. 488 00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:16,720 100%, I think you know that those actions just best 489 00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:19,160 encapsulate the attitude the company had towards progressing 490 00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:24,360 the project hugely at odds with the way BHB and the way Newmont 491 00:26:24,360 --> 00:26:27,120 wanted to go about things. And we could talk way more about 492 00:26:27,120 --> 00:26:28,240 all the boardroom action there was. 493 00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:29,800 There was heaps of it. You had lots of management 494 00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:34,320 changes throughout the year, but a lot of that sort of old 495 00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:36,080 history now. So we'll we'll leave it there. 496 00:26:36,160 --> 00:26:38,520 There was a lot happening on the environmental and the political 497 00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:40,640 front in Ecuador, which is worth mentioning. 498 00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:44,240 This created a lot of uncertainty about whether they'd 499 00:26:44,240 --> 00:26:47,080 get the permits and all all those sorts of things which 500 00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:51,080 created more, you know, negative headwinds for the stock. 501 00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:56,400 But you you could sort of come through to 2024 last year they 502 00:26:56,400 --> 00:26:59,360 release an updated PFS. They they optimize it and the 503 00:26:59,360 --> 00:27:01,960 pre production capital comes down substantially. 504 00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:03,280 The economics look a little bit better. 505 00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:07,320 They get an exploitation permit. That's not the final mining 506 00:27:07,320 --> 00:27:08,800 permit. They can't construct us yet. 507 00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:12,280 They can do some early works, but just another another sort of 508 00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:14,240 check of the box. It's a good thing. 509 00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:17,480 But then halfway through the year they announced this big 510 00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:20,920 streaming deal with the the giants in the space, Franco 511 00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:25,680 Nevada, as well as a Cisco. Actually they're giving US $750 512 00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:28,360 million. So 100 bucks up front that's 513 00:27:28,360 --> 00:27:33,360 spread over three payments and 650 is for construction when 514 00:27:33,360 --> 00:27:35,640 that happens. So the company doesn't get their 515 00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:39,320 hands on the cash just yet, but once they check those boxes, 516 00:27:39,360 --> 00:27:44,920 they'll be able to fund a bit over I think 1/3 of the the 1.55 517 00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:49,800 billion pre production capital. So yeah, this one and the 518 00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:54,840 royalty before has A to an extent a buyback that you can do 519 00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:59,400 within a certain period of time, but they are sort of written in 520 00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:02,240 stone and and very hard to to turn around in large. 521 00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:05,720 Then there was some some stuff we should have been paying 522 00:28:05,720 --> 00:28:08,520 attention to, like just just last week or the week. 523 00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:11,920 Before like we were asleep at the wheel last week when some 524 00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:14,280 big changes happened at the company. 525 00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:20,240 So incomes a new CEO and incomes a new chair, this new CEO wasn't 526 00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:22,680 a stranger to the company, had been a non exec director since 527 00:28:22,680 --> 00:28:26,400 2022. Before that he's a a long time 528 00:28:26,400 --> 00:28:28,400 investment banker in the metals and mining space, had also 529 00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:31,040 worked at Matt Copper. And he gives this kind of 530 00:28:31,040 --> 00:28:35,520 standard CEO comments in the spiel in the announcement, talks 531 00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:39,520 about looking at an ASX listing and maximizing shareholder 532 00:28:39,520 --> 00:28:40,800 value. And you sort of read it at a 533 00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:42,880 time you're like, yeah, everyone kind of says that. 534 00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:45,960 Let's see if they sort of put it into action with the company. 535 00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:48,000 You've got the new chair as well. 536 00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:53,680 This is a former Glencore head of strategy and you see those 537 00:28:53,680 --> 00:28:56,600 those two gentlemen coming in, you see their track record, 538 00:28:56,600 --> 00:28:58,280 their experience and what they're all about. 539 00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:02,520 And I don't think immediately that these are two folks that 540 00:29:02,520 --> 00:29:08,320 want to develop a block cave operation in the Andes in South 541 00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:10,720 America. This is a super, super complex 542 00:29:10,720 --> 00:29:13,920 operation and these guys seem more than capable of what 543 00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:17,040 they're doing, but it does actually really speak to a 544 00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:19,840 change in mindset in my view. And they talk about restating, 545 00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:23,720 resetting the strategy. They're forming this Explore Co, 546 00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:26,560 which is going to have all the other tenements outside of 547 00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:29,560 Casket Bell put into it. Some are more developed than 548 00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:33,360 others, but they're all got this focus of realizing shareholder 549 00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:35,640 value now. That's that's the explore Co 550 00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:39,000 setting the stage for the spin out of the ultimate acquisition. 551 00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:40,400 You put a put a bow on the rest, mate. 552 00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:44,040 Yeah, but that's exactly those are guys there to do it to you 553 00:29:44,040 --> 00:29:47,360 or not to not to build a mind. Yeah, it's, it's, it's all the 554 00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:50,680 little sort of signs. So if you look at the the cap 555 00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:52,560 table, what the biggest shareholders are in their 556 00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:56,440 holdings before this, this screenshot of shows before the 557 00:29:56,440 --> 00:29:59,800 Jiangxi announcement, but you've got BHB now at 10%, you've got 558 00:29:59,800 --> 00:30:05,000 Newmont at 10% and you've got Jiangxi at 12%. 559 00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:06,200 So they're, they're the big holders. 560 00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:09,400 You've got three different companies holding 10% plus 561 00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:14,880 Jiangxi came in and paid a 45% premium to scoop up that block 562 00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:18,440 of owned shares. So they're clearly pretty keen 563 00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:21,840 to do something. They only paid US 18,000,000 for 564 00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:24,520 that stock. But again, you're saying just, 565 00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:27,280 you know, this is just one week into the job for that new 566 00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:29,960 leadership team and they're talking about reshaping the 567 00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:33,320 investment proposition. It's, you know, if you're of the 568 00:30:33,320 --> 00:30:36,520 persuasion that a deal to be done here is the best outcome as 569 00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:39,240 a shareholder, they are saying all the right things to you. 570 00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:43,040 And it's, it's a very interesting position. 571 00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:45,280 I reckon now that the company sort of sees itself in because 572 00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:49,000 you've got Newmont who've done a big round of divestments of all 573 00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:52,560 their non core assets. You've got BHB that last year 574 00:30:52,560 --> 00:30:55,520 did the deal with Philo and perhaps are looking at other 575 00:30:55,520 --> 00:30:59,760 things and you've got the other big shareholders creeping their 576 00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:03,640 way higher. So whether the TSX listing is a 577 00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:07,000 bit of a blocker for a Chinese entity remains to be seen. 578 00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:11,040 You've got ADFS that should come out in the the not too distant 579 00:31:11,040 --> 00:31:14,720 future. So a bit more solid numbers to 580 00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:17,760 be wrapped around the project. But I think you've got a 581 00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:20,040 management team in there now that's happy to deal. 582 00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:23,480 And I'm I'm pretty intrigued to see where the, where the company 583 00:31:23,480 --> 00:31:24,880 and where the stock kind of goes from here. 584 00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:29,720 So if you got those three big holders like it looks like I 585 00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:34,960 couldn't say BHP or Newmont doing a Chinese JV, that'd be a 586 00:31:34,960 --> 00:31:37,680 bit out there, wouldn't it? Or is it well they? 587 00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:40,840 They rely heavily on China for a lot of their business. 588 00:31:40,840 --> 00:31:43,200 What would they JV? With them at a project level, do 589 00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:45,960 you think, in Ecuador? Jeez. 590 00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:48,280 Nothing's nothing's impossible, yeah. 591 00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:53,040 So obviously looking at Jen, she looks the favorite for it. 592 00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:57,000 JD. Does look like they are the ones 593 00:31:57,040 --> 00:32:00,480 most enthusiastic and most keen to do a deal certainly I reckon. 594 00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:04,600 Very interesting register. It is yeah. 595 00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:08,120 And I, I think I'm pretty sure like Cornerstone was trying to 596 00:32:08,120 --> 00:32:11,680 sell themselves or sell their stake before kind of sold it all 597 00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:15,160 became sold golds. And, and I do remember there was 598 00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:18,920 like some inability for, for the Chinese to, to buy it back then 599 00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:22,200 because that was they, they were I actually think a Canadian 600 00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:26,040 domicile country and already had the TSX listing or was the 601 00:32:26,040 --> 00:32:28,960 dominant listing and. Yeah, they were Canadian, that's 602 00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:30,040 right. Yeah, yeah. 603 00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:33,720 Anyway, my read through of that was that you crested BHP kind of 604 00:32:33,720 --> 00:32:37,760 went there to do that deal. So it kind of speaks to me. 605 00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:41,520 Like to your point, Maddie, this is, this is on a, on a, there's 606 00:32:41,520 --> 00:32:44,560 a ribbon on this for Jiangxi. Yeah, yeah. 607 00:32:44,560 --> 00:32:47,800 BHP had been there a long time already, even even by that point 608 00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:50,080 they'd been, you know, they would have been sniffing around 609 00:32:50,080 --> 00:32:52,600 and holding that stake for for a while. 610 00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:56,040 And yeah, maybe they've made their mind up already. 611 00:32:56,360 --> 00:32:58,440 Well if they wanted the royalty to scare everyone off, it sure 612 00:32:58,440 --> 00:33:01,320 did because it's been as you said, it's depressed and PHP or 613 00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:03,320 Newmont haven't done anything with it so. 614 00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:08,280 Yeah, I mean, you can't say the you can't say portions of the 615 00:33:08,280 --> 00:33:10,920 board weren't weren't interested in getting the stock up, but 616 00:33:10,920 --> 00:33:12,840 they were massive shareholders, right. 617 00:33:12,840 --> 00:33:14,600 The former CEO stepped down in 21. 618 00:33:14,600 --> 00:33:18,400 There's a lot of drama around that, but you know, I owned a a 619 00:33:18,400 --> 00:33:22,920 big slab of stock, so. Yeah, Speaking of Guinea, random 620 00:33:22,920 --> 00:33:29,520 links to sorry Ecuador, random links to Ecuador was we know 621 00:33:29,520 --> 00:33:32,040 Gina's love for Ecuador. Yep. 622 00:33:33,280 --> 00:33:34,480 Do I remember? Roski as. 623 00:33:34,480 --> 00:33:39,160 Well, the ex CEO of this that departed that did the royalty 624 00:33:39,160 --> 00:33:43,840 deal that Daryl Kazuba, he ended up at Arafura really is that 625 00:33:43,840 --> 00:33:45,280 right? I don't know. 626 00:33:45,280 --> 00:33:46,520 I think so. It could be right. 627 00:33:46,760 --> 00:33:49,600 Yeah, I didn't know that. Who Jane is a major shareholder 628 00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:52,520 of. I think that's right. 629 00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:56,720 That is a random link that doesn't link anymore really, 630 00:33:57,160 --> 00:33:59,040 because you know, Jane. Jane likes Ecuador. 631 00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:05,560 So there you go. Another non exec so. 632 00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:10,080 So he was appointed a non exec director before he even became 633 00:34:10,080 --> 00:34:13,080 CEO. I think of of Sogold. 634 00:34:14,719 --> 00:34:17,360 There we go. Oh, this is who knows something. 635 00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:19,880 There's something there. Speaking of something, history. 636 00:34:19,880 --> 00:34:23,560 I've gone down a random bloody, bloody hypothesis here on the 637 00:34:23,560 --> 00:34:27,320 back of exploration results, but this is just lightning. 638 00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:30,920 This is what we do. Our band bloody ripped today 639 00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:34,159 again. That's a God dollar six that is 640 00:34:34,159 --> 00:34:40,440 just being bloody flying that thing they've hit they're well, 641 00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:44,280 they're climbing a bit of a greenfields discovery you'd say 642 00:34:44,639 --> 00:34:49,800 on their up the up the strike from Riverina 22.7 metres at 5g 643 00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:53,880 and 10.9 at 6.4g. So this like we always talk 644 00:34:53,880 --> 00:35:00,280 about the organic potential that gets touted for their Davyhurst 645 00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:04,720 tenements and this sort of probably the longest section 646 00:35:04,720 --> 00:35:06,400 shows it. Like you look at the Riverina 647 00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:10,280 mine and the British line and then they've hit this stuff at 648 00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:13,120 little gem, they call it they got sun riser up there. 649 00:35:13,120 --> 00:35:16,760 So 7 odd kilometers of of strike, they're going to test 650 00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:19,880 and hence the money they're putting into exploration to, you 651 00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:25,200 know, organically grow that project and like, but you look 652 00:35:25,200 --> 00:35:28,720 at the the performance and new ad comments previously travel, 653 00:35:28,720 --> 00:35:30,240 like, you know, the scripts like value. 654 00:35:30,240 --> 00:35:33,360 They are they going to use it? Like are they going to do a deal 655 00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:35,640 and all they're just going to organically grow And you just 656 00:35:35,640 --> 00:35:39,440 think of right, if they're going to do a deal, what would what 657 00:35:39,440 --> 00:35:42,560 deal would they do to sort of feed the existing 658 00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:45,560 infrastructure? They've gotten like the but I 659 00:35:45,560 --> 00:35:47,720 don't even know if they do this one because it's too bloody. 660 00:35:48,160 --> 00:35:50,720 The the price on this. Like the first one that came to 661 00:35:50,720 --> 00:35:54,200 mind would have been that gorilla gold the the old 662 00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:57,400 labyrinth, because they got the stuff down the road from they're 663 00:35:57,400 --> 00:36:00,200 at Menzies, the common Vale stuff they got so that'd feed 664 00:36:00,200 --> 00:36:02,920 into Riverina and the malware stuff they've got is on the 665 00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:06,520 western side of Riverina. But like I just was shocked 666 00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:09,560 yesterday when I looked at the market cap, 240 mil fully 667 00:36:09,560 --> 00:36:11,960 diluted gorilla cult. I just good. 668 00:36:12,280 --> 00:36:15,200 It's like the gold version of encounter again. 669 00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:19,160 It's just absolutely ripping. So for the and I just couldn't 670 00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:24,720 see yeah I'm still of the belief I think or a band are probably 671 00:36:24,720 --> 00:36:28,360 going to stay organic and just maximize the potential of the 672 00:36:28,360 --> 00:36:31,520 drill bit at River Rainer and I'm but then it just thinking on 673 00:36:31,520 --> 00:36:34,720 the on the back of the Remelius Spartan chatter obviously 674 00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:38,000 reflected on that whole thing. We had differing views of what 675 00:36:38,280 --> 00:36:41,280 Remelius and Spartan the the outcome would be and I'm 676 00:36:41,280 --> 00:36:45,040 probably started bloody Lane and your by a bit trapped because 677 00:36:45,040 --> 00:36:48,480 I'm thinking God that why do they're going to backfill 240 678 00:36:48,480 --> 00:36:52,280 Miller market cap at gorilla is Simon Lawson will be going from 679 00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:56,520 non exact to bloody the MD, which means maybe remelius and 680 00:36:56,520 --> 00:37:00,640 Spartan is going to happen and then you look at how much and 681 00:37:01,160 --> 00:37:02,320 it. Was given Simon lots of credit 682 00:37:02,320 --> 00:37:03,560 mate. It could, it could derate after 683 00:37:03,560 --> 00:37:07,080 that, joking Simon. He'll have to change his number 684 00:37:07,080 --> 00:37:12,240 plates. But the, the I was just looking 685 00:37:12,240 --> 00:37:14,760 at the share price performance of the gold is today and like 686 00:37:14,760 --> 00:37:17,840 everything is ripping other than Ramilis. 687 00:37:17,840 --> 00:37:20,680 Like it was, I think it was .7% up when I looked. 688 00:37:21,680 --> 00:37:24,680 And the look at this last six months trade between Spartan and 689 00:37:24,680 --> 00:37:28,960 Ramilis, they're pretty much back close to par after that. 690 00:37:28,960 --> 00:37:32,160 So I look, maybe that whole, as you said, the magnet thing was 691 00:37:32,160 --> 00:37:37,440 the thing that came out to not say nothing's happening. 692 00:37:37,440 --> 00:37:40,280 But it's like, yeah, there's a gap here. 693 00:37:40,480 --> 00:37:43,880 The if it's going to be in a scheme of arrangement like 694 00:37:44,640 --> 00:37:49,360 Remelius stock cheaper is more chance of Spartan accepting, 695 00:37:50,040 --> 00:37:54,760 voting in favour of that and getting a lot more, a lot more 696 00:37:54,760 --> 00:37:57,440 control of that. Pro forma it'd be like 55 697 00:37:57,440 --> 00:38:01,080 Remelius, 45 Spartan at these rates around about that whatever 698 00:38:01,080 --> 00:38:04,040 the merger ratio is. But it's a yeah, if it does 699 00:38:04,040 --> 00:38:05,960 happen, it's going to be a bloody big swing. 700 00:38:06,920 --> 00:38:10,280 So yeah, maybe that maybe that is going to happen so. 701 00:38:11,080 --> 00:38:14,040 Ding, Ding, Ding, Ding. Ding, yeah, for Spartan so, but 702 00:38:14,040 --> 00:38:17,520 I'm thinking that's if both of those things happen. 703 00:38:18,160 --> 00:38:21,600 There you go. Who who who knows? 704 00:38:21,760 --> 00:38:23,400 We'll wait and we'll wait and see. 705 00:38:24,880 --> 00:38:25,880 Beautiful. Oh God. 706 00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:28,200 Well, I'm pretty sure that recorded fuck. 707 00:38:28,560 --> 00:38:30,480 Oh good, Bing is crusted. It's all. 708 00:38:30,680 --> 00:38:32,280 Right. All right, let the kids pick up 709 00:38:32,280 --> 00:38:34,800 sorted so I can actually edit it. 710 00:38:35,520 --> 00:38:38,200 Fucking hell, I've never talked about the same thing so many 711 00:38:38,200 --> 00:38:40,760 times. Right, I fucking I'll talk about 712 00:38:40,760 --> 00:38:44,600 this as same everyday. 100 bucks off Ausi MMM underground 713 00:38:44,600 --> 00:38:46,360 operates tickets to link in the show notes. 714 00:38:46,640 --> 00:38:49,400 Thanks to our bloody great partners at Mineral Mining 715 00:38:49,400 --> 00:38:53,440 Services, MMS, grounded Sandy ground sports CR insurance, K 716 00:38:53,440 --> 00:38:59,000 drill WA water balls, swig quattro at CBA hudao Money 717 00:38:59,000 --> 00:38:59,720 Miners. Hudao Hudao. 718 00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:02,720 Information contained in this episode of Money of Mine is of 719 00:39:02,720 --> 00:39:04,800 general nature only and does not take into account the 720 00:39:04,800 --> 00:39:08,400 objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular 721 00:39:08,400 --> 00:39:10,440 person. Before making any investment 722 00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:13,520 decision, you should consult with your financial advisor and 723 00:39:13,520 --> 00:39:16,640 consider how appropriate the advice is to your objectives, 724 00:39:16,840 --> 00:39:18,840 financial situation and needs.