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JD, I'm not sure if you've been 
paying attention right, but 

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there's a bit going on with 
Kokola. 

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So some, some brew pillars are 
burst effectively and the extent

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and severity of this situation 
is, is still kind of yet to 

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fully play out. 
The both Ivanhoe and Zejin have 

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put out some commentary to the 
effect to describe what's 

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happening. 
And it's early days. 

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So we still don't kind of know 
everything, but the, the share 

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price has fallen that 20% 
already. 

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I'm talking about about Ivanhoe 
in in this case. 

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And as everyone's kind of trying
to piece things together, I 

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thought it would be just 
absolutely awesome if we got the

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insight of Neil Ringdial, who, 
who is a mining engineer who is 

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so like pointed and thoughtful 
and great at explaining like 

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what he is interpreting based on
the press releases. 

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I caught up with Neil this 
morning just on a, on a, on a 

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call and I asked him some 
questions, mostly because he put

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out a couple of tweets, which I,
I just found so insightful as he

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as he spoke about what, you 
know, his interpretations of the

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events are, how serious they 
might be and what the 

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implications could be for for 
Ivanhoe A. 100% mate. 

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It's the biggest copper mine in 
Africa. 

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It's one of the biggest copper 
mines in the world. 

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It's been a glowing success 
story for a number of years now.

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Obviously owned by Ivanhoe as 
well as the Jin and the 

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Congolese government. 
And like you said, the the news 

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has sort of rocked the stock 
market. 

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So we tacked on a little bit of 
a conversation with the Koala at

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the end as well to get a more of
a, a market's kind of 

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perspective on this and how he 
kind of interprets the event. 

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But I'm super excited to share 
the the technical conversation 

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with Neil as he sort of 
understands it, his experience 

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in underground operations. 
Very excited to bring bring 

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Neil's voice to the potty. 
Let us know guys if you you want

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more from from Neil in the 
future. 

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I I really enjoyed speaking with
him and but first mate it's 

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Friday, which means it's called 
KCA Friday. 

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Normally I like to surprise Adam
on Fridays, but today he's told 

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me to call Kca's recruitment 
manager, Christian Dean. 

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00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:04,880
Hello. 
Trav. 

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What? 
You saved my number, Adam. 

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Switched me up. 
What would it take for a guy 

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like me who has zero underground
mining expertise to to? 

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Become an underground miner. 
They got a manual. 

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License, Yeah, yeah, that's good
start yeah for. 

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Sure. 
Like we're, we're all about 

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helping our clients. 
So it's what they want if they 

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need actually little people and 
they want to come to us. 

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But in all honesty, like coming 
from those experienced people, 

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people with the skills that 
they're looking for, people that

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are a bit tired of find. 
So we generally have to go 

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kicking, excuse the pun. 
We're all this pretty much ex 

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operators. 
It's people they trust, people 

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that have done it so we can 
relate to the people we're 

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speaking with, obviously know 
some of those nuances that might

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be required and understand what 
they actually need in both the 

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candidate and and the client. 
We know what it's like to be on 

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site. 
If they're not coming down the 

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hall, if you don't have the 
people, well that's not working.

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So when they call that you 
really need someone and I need 

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them yesterday. 
So having that sort of mindset 

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as opposed to just like just 
recruiting, you know, so it 

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happens. 
I think that helps. 

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Just called KCII. 
Like to talk about things that 

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I'm interested in and I've 
always been interested in having

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her. 
I should think before, you know,

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this is negative news, but I 
must just say I'm very impressed

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with the ability of that company
to execute on building new mines

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and power plants. 
And you know, they're very, 

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very, very good at that. 
You know, they're done projects,

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they've met, you know, projects 
have been on time and they've 

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had the glitches and but they've
been like worked through them. 

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And I guess this is another one,
but I'm also a shareholder. 

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I like to talk about, I like to 
talk about stuff I invest in. 

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And I know what it's like to be 
on both sides of the story 

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enough. 
I've worked for public companies

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before in executive positions. 
And, you know, there's that 

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famous phrase that goes, you 
know, if there's a bad press 

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release in for a mining company,
then the news must be very bad, 

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very bad indeed because they 
always have to try and present 

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the bad news in the best 
possible light because of the 

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obvious impact. 
It's material, material 

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information. 
So it's always quite difficult 

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to decipher these things. 
And I felt I just wanted to, you

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know, share my own thoughts on 
what I thought was really going 

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on behind the scenes and what 
might be the case, what might be

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happening there. 
Yeah, I think that it's been 

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super useful because originally 
it appeared like, you know, the 

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the owners of this operations 
that Gin and Ivanhoe disagreed 

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on. 
Maybe. 

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Maybe it was semantics. 
Or. 

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Or the sensitivity as it related
to what was actually happening 

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here. 
But there there was a 

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geotechnical event of some sort,
but the the severity of it kind 

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of took a little bit little 
while to understand. 

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You. 
Were pretty astute, like early 

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on when there was that initial 
understanding that there could 

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be a bit more to the story. 
Yeah, I mean, my ears picked up 

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when the first press release 
came out that there were some 

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problems. 
And then then I got very 

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concerned when the second press 
release came out and there was 

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some objection to the Zigen 
press release from Ivanhoe. 

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So the two major shareholders 
had a disagreement. 

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And I think it wasn't really 
anything, as I said in my first 

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tweet, I didn't think it was 
anything malicious. 

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I just think that maybe there 
was a little bit less 

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understanding or maybe there was
some concern about the the 

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possible misunderstanding of the
audience what was in the 

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decision press release. 
But essentially both press 

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releases were saying the same 
thing. 

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The one said that there was 
spalling and falls of hanging 

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wool. 
And the other one said that 

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there was some seismicity and, 
you know, pillar bursts, OK. 

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And when you have pillar pillars
bursting, you get spalling of 

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the pillars. 
That's what it's called. 

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When you know the size of the 
pillars flake off, that's called

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spalling. 
And you'll get bits material 

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falling off the hanging wall as 
well. 

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And it's obviously very 
hazardous. 

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If anybody's in that area, these
things happen, you know, 

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seismics, the site, it's mining 
induced seismicity. 

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In other words, the seismicity 
wasn't there. 

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That's very lucky, in my 
opinion. 

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It wasn't, it wasn't, you know, 
that part of the Congo is not 

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very seismically active as far 
as I'm aware. 

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And so it has to be mining or 
induced. 

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And and that's, that's quite 
normal for many operations. 

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You know, even in ALMA here in 
Honduras, we have, we also get, 

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we also get pillar bursts from 
time to time, but we don't have 

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the same kind of very widespread
board and pillar layout that 

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they've got at, at Kakula. 
And in the shallow mining 

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environment, like at Kakula, 
you've, you've got a, you know, 

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when you see, when you hear 
about seismicity in a, in a 

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shadow mining environment and 
multiple, you know, multiple 

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events or multiple, you know, 
you know, bursting of pillars, 

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that's, that's very big cause 
for concern in any mine. 

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OK, It's OK if you have one now 
and again, but if you have 

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multiple to the extent that your
main accesses, you know, you 

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00:07:33,520 --> 00:07:36,280
have to, you have to get people 
out of there and that, you know,

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00:07:36,280 --> 00:07:39,760
you have to start looking at 
alternatives to replace your 

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00:07:39,760 --> 00:07:43,680
pumping system because your pump
columns have broken because of 

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00:07:43,680 --> 00:07:46,440
the because of the police 
bursting, you know, that 

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00:07:46,440 --> 00:07:49,360
suggests that there's something 
more serious, OK. 

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00:07:49,800 --> 00:07:53,160
Can you help me understand that 
the difference between, yeah, 

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00:07:53,400 --> 00:07:56,680
like experiencing this in a date
mine versus a shallow mine and 

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00:07:56,680 --> 00:07:58,840
why? 
Why the extra level of concern? 

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00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:04,680
Well, with deeper mining you get
more elastic behavior to the 

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00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:08,000
rock because of the depths and 
you also have a stronger 

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00:08:08,000 --> 00:08:12,280
horizontal stress component 
normally as well as a strong 

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00:08:12,400 --> 00:08:14,880
obviously a very strong, much 
stronger vertical stress 

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00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:16,760
component. 
With a deeper mine, you've got 

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00:08:16,760 --> 00:08:18,120
all this weighted rock above 
you. 

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00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:22,040
You also get horizontal stress, 
increase horizontal stress. 

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And with ultra deep mines, like,
you know, the deep platinum 

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00:08:26,080 --> 00:08:30,000
mines and gold mine in South 
Africa and in do some of the 

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00:08:30,000 --> 00:08:35,640
deep mines in North America that
I'm aware of, you know, you, 

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00:08:35,679 --> 00:08:38,120
you, you get the, the rock 
actually behaves more 

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00:08:38,120 --> 00:08:41,360
plastically. 
And so your support regimes are 

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00:08:41,360 --> 00:08:45,040
different, OK, to what you need.
You know, they're more of a 

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00:08:45,040 --> 00:08:49,360
yielding support. 
And you have to, you have to do 

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00:08:49,360 --> 00:08:52,360
a mine layout that's, you know, 
that suits, suits whatever 

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00:08:52,360 --> 00:08:54,360
environment you're in. 
But the shallow mining 

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00:08:54,360 --> 00:08:57,480
environment, you're dealing more
with dead weight. 

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00:08:57,880 --> 00:09:01,360
OK, so we're talking anything 
less than some people might 

165
00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:05,480
think is deep, but it's 1000 
meters or less is from where 

166
00:09:05,560 --> 00:09:07,720
where I grew up was considered 
shallow. 

167
00:09:09,440 --> 00:09:12,280
And so that's, that's the 
environment we're talking about 

168
00:09:12,280 --> 00:09:14,240
a cooler, cooler. 
I don't know what the depth is 

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00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:18,720
now, but it's probably less than
500 meters at this stage. 

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00:09:18,720 --> 00:09:22,080
I know that all body goes down 
to about 1000 meters, but they 

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00:09:22,080 --> 00:09:26,040
haven't got that deep yet. 
And so it's fairly shallow. 

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00:09:26,440 --> 00:09:29,120
And so when you do a mining 
layer, and it's also a flat ore 

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00:09:29,120 --> 00:09:31,800
body. 
So when you're mining a flat ore

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00:09:31,800 --> 00:09:34,240
body, you're obviously going to 
leave pillars to support the, 

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00:09:34,680 --> 00:09:36,800
the beam, the weights of 
everything above you. 

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00:09:37,240 --> 00:09:39,320
Those pillars have to be 
designed for the entire rock 

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00:09:39,320 --> 00:09:42,520
mess above the pillar. 
And but that's, you know, 

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00:09:42,520 --> 00:09:46,160
overhanging between the 
excavations between each pillar.

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00:09:46,520 --> 00:09:51,600
OK. 
And, and then how those pillars 

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00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:55,680
will fail will depend on the 
size and the amount of stress on

181
00:09:55,680 --> 00:09:58,240
them. 
And so if you make them smaller 

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00:09:58,240 --> 00:10:00,600
or if you start with a big 
pillar and you might not, you 

183
00:10:00,600 --> 00:10:04,040
know, or we make them too small,
depending on the rock 

184
00:10:04,040 --> 00:10:08,480
characteristics themselves, it 
will they will fail the other 

185
00:10:08,480 --> 00:10:12,240
flail plastically or you know, 
they'll burst. 

186
00:10:12,320 --> 00:10:16,400
OK. 
And you know, when a pillar 

187
00:10:16,400 --> 00:10:20,080
bursts, I think it's important 
to understand that it can still 

188
00:10:20,080 --> 00:10:22,320
have a yield resistance after 
bursting. 

189
00:10:22,320 --> 00:10:25,080
It just means that the solid 
part of the rock in the middle 

190
00:10:25,080 --> 00:10:26,360
of the pillars definitely 
cracked. 

191
00:10:26,960 --> 00:10:32,360
OK, And you have broken rock on 
the sides that Spall out OK, But

192
00:10:32,880 --> 00:10:35,960
as long as you keep that intact,
it's still got some support 

193
00:10:35,960 --> 00:10:40,680
resistance left. 
OK, Things can happen where you 

194
00:10:40,680 --> 00:10:44,600
have if you have a very hard ore
body, for example, and maybe the

195
00:10:44,600 --> 00:10:48,000
foot wall or the floor is very 
soft, you can have what will 

196
00:10:48,000 --> 00:10:52,240
happen there is the pillow will 
stay will will punch into the 

197
00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:55,320
football and and it'll it'll 
seem as if the floor is coming 

198
00:10:55,320 --> 00:10:57,400
up, but really the pillow is 
punching into the football. 

199
00:10:57,760 --> 00:10:59,480
OK. 
That's a different type of 

200
00:10:59,480 --> 00:11:02,880
failing mechanism. 
You can also have the reverse if

201
00:11:02,880 --> 00:11:06,480
you have a soft hanging wall and
you have a hard ore body that 

202
00:11:06,480 --> 00:11:09,280
you're mining and can punch into
your hanging wall and that's 

203
00:11:09,280 --> 00:11:11,760
going to be that's going to also
be pretty bad. 

204
00:11:12,160 --> 00:11:15,440
In this case, from what I've 
read from the technical reports,

205
00:11:15,440 --> 00:11:19,080
the foot wall is very hard and 
in the all body itself is quite 

206
00:11:19,080 --> 00:11:21,840
soft and in the material on top 
of it is also quite soft. 

207
00:11:22,280 --> 00:11:27,000
So they have to do a lot of 
shotcreting and you know, a lot 

208
00:11:27,000 --> 00:11:29,720
of support, a lot of shot 
creating is just basically 

209
00:11:29,720 --> 00:11:32,560
putting the concrete skin on the
inside of your tunnel. 

210
00:11:34,000 --> 00:11:38,440
And then you know, you know, 
your usual, your whatever 

211
00:11:38,440 --> 00:11:42,120
support, your local support 
regime they've got in form of of

212
00:11:42,440 --> 00:11:46,760
of bolts or anchors. 
And then you've got your pillars

213
00:11:46,760 --> 00:11:49,080
which are holding up the mass of
everything above it. 

214
00:11:49,560 --> 00:11:53,240
And so I don't know what what is
bursting. 

215
00:11:53,240 --> 00:11:57,000
We don't have enough information
available to us to know exactly 

216
00:11:57,000 --> 00:12:00,120
what's happening. 
It could be the concrete skins 

217
00:12:00,480 --> 00:12:03,440
on the shotcrete that's 
bursting, but I don't think so. 

218
00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:06,160
I think what probably the 
pillars are solid rock pillars. 

219
00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:10,960
And even though the rock is very
poor, the whole body is very 

220
00:12:10,960 --> 00:12:13,800
poor. 
It's it's, it's, you know, it 

221
00:12:14,040 --> 00:12:17,440
crunches and when it crunches, 
it makes a burst and it gives, 

222
00:12:17,480 --> 00:12:21,960
it gives, you know, it releases 
energy rapidly in that as that 

223
00:12:21,960 --> 00:12:25,200
happens. 
And then what's worrying to me 

224
00:12:25,200 --> 00:12:27,400
though, and that can happen 
fine. 

225
00:12:27,400 --> 00:12:30,400
You know, sometimes you'll have 
a small pillar that's kind of 

226
00:12:30,400 --> 00:12:35,200
taking a bit more load than than
than than the others around it. 

227
00:12:35,360 --> 00:12:38,480
Maybe there's bigger spans 
between that pillar and others 

228
00:12:38,760 --> 00:12:40,880
and it'll fail. 
It'll fail like that. 

229
00:12:40,880 --> 00:12:42,520
It'll be a big thump 
underground. 

230
00:12:42,880 --> 00:12:46,800
You'll hear it and it'll give 
you a scare and that pillar will

231
00:12:46,800 --> 00:12:49,960
Spall and if you're nearby 
you'll be OK. 

232
00:12:49,960 --> 00:12:51,880
As long as you're not standing 
next to it, you'd probably be 

233
00:12:51,880 --> 00:12:54,320
OK. 
But when you have multiple 

234
00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:57,960
pillars failing, that suggests 
that they are losing. 

235
00:12:58,240 --> 00:13:01,640
So that beam that pillar fails 
is a little bit of movement. 

236
00:13:01,920 --> 00:13:05,560
Now that hanging wool beam has 
to be supported by the remaining

237
00:13:05,560 --> 00:13:09,200
pillars, which are still stiff, 
but they also start failing. 

238
00:13:10,080 --> 00:13:13,200
Keep putting extra. 
Extra like a runaway train. 

239
00:13:13,280 --> 00:13:17,560
OK, so you'll get a whole area 
that starts to fail and that's 

240
00:13:17,560 --> 00:13:22,000
what's concerning. 
OK, if it was just one or two 

241
00:13:22,000 --> 00:13:26,200
pillars, it would be OK, but it 
seems to be widespread. 

242
00:13:26,720 --> 00:13:29,120
Otherwise, why would they have 
to evacuate the whole mine? 

243
00:13:30,000 --> 00:13:33,360
OK. 
And so that's very concerning. 

244
00:13:34,880 --> 00:13:37,280
And so it's not really the 
failure mode, which is what was 

245
00:13:37,280 --> 00:13:40,960
the the objection of of the 
Ivanhoe guys were, you know, 

246
00:13:40,960 --> 00:13:43,760
objecting to what surgeon mining
was saying in my opinion, and 

247
00:13:44,040 --> 00:13:49,360
this is just my opinion, OK. 
You know the I think I think 

248
00:13:49,360 --> 00:13:51,080
it's I think it's something more
serious. 

249
00:13:51,120 --> 00:13:53,600
I'm more concerned about the 
number of pillars that have 

250
00:13:53,600 --> 00:13:55,600
failed. 
And it'd be great if we got some

251
00:13:55,600 --> 00:13:58,080
clarity from the company on that
and I'm sure we'll get that. 

252
00:13:58,080 --> 00:14:01,360
But you know, they have, they 
have to be very careful how 

253
00:14:01,360 --> 00:14:06,440
they, how they, you know, how 
they, how they explain this, you

254
00:14:06,440 --> 00:14:12,440
know, to avoid liabilities. 
Yeah, it's, it's, it's a risk 

255
00:14:12,800 --> 00:14:17,600
that was date detailed in, in 
their technical reports 2020 

256
00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:24,760
like initially in 20/20/19. 
And is that a risk that's there 

257
00:14:24,760 --> 00:14:27,480
just because of the, the mining 
method itself or is it to do 

258
00:14:27,480 --> 00:14:31,240
with the, you know, the, the 
ground conditions as well, a 

259
00:14:31,240 --> 00:14:32,920
kind of combination of all those
factors? 

260
00:14:33,200 --> 00:14:37,000
Is, I mean, I don't, you know, 
at this stage it's too early for

261
00:14:37,000 --> 00:14:41,560
us to comment on whether it was 
a bad mining method or obviously

262
00:14:41,560 --> 00:14:44,880
there was something that that 
was planned that never went 

263
00:14:44,960 --> 00:14:47,760
according to plan that resulted 
in this. 

264
00:14:48,120 --> 00:14:51,280
So I mean, I'm actually looking 
at the technical report right 

265
00:14:51,280 --> 00:14:55,960
now here and it says, you know, 
in the 2023 it talks about, you 

266
00:14:55,960 --> 00:14:58,760
know, major structures, namely 
the waste fault structures that 

267
00:14:58,760 --> 00:15:02,240
still contain soft infilling. 
And this coupled with tight 

268
00:15:02,240 --> 00:15:05,360
filling during drift and full 
mining operations, it is 

269
00:15:05,360 --> 00:15:08,480
unlikely seismic activity will 
occur on these structures. 

270
00:15:09,160 --> 00:15:11,800
It's it could be the fault 
structures that are moving. 

271
00:15:12,120 --> 00:15:15,320
OK, but the fact that they've 
talked about pillars bursting 

272
00:15:15,320 --> 00:15:17,280
and spalling, I think it is a 
pillars. 

273
00:15:17,320 --> 00:15:19,560
OK. 
Then they'd say in the next 

274
00:15:19,560 --> 00:15:23,240
sentence of this technical 
report. 

275
00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:26,280
The bracket pillars that will be
left along the large structures 

276
00:15:26,280 --> 00:15:29,040
will also assist in containing 
seismic activity. 

277
00:15:29,360 --> 00:15:32,520
So if you have a fault going 
through an ore body and you're 

278
00:15:32,520 --> 00:15:35,320
mining along the other side, you
put a pillow on either side of 

279
00:15:35,320 --> 00:15:36,760
the fault. 
You don't actually mine on 

280
00:15:37,240 --> 00:15:40,800
against the fault or through the
fault except for your excesses. 

281
00:15:40,800 --> 00:15:42,520
And you leave a pillar. 
Those are called bracket 

282
00:15:42,520 --> 00:15:45,200
pillars. 
And that's to prevent because 

283
00:15:45,200 --> 00:15:47,880
you'll have a different stress 
regime in this block, which is 

284
00:15:47,880 --> 00:15:50,320
defined by the by the fault on 
the one side. 

285
00:15:50,680 --> 00:15:53,560
It'll have different stress and 
this block will have different 

286
00:15:53,560 --> 00:15:57,320
stress depending on the load. 
And so you can get movements on 

287
00:15:57,320 --> 00:16:00,040
a fault and they can correct 
that can be seismic, OK. 

288
00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:02,680
And that's what that's what 
happens in the deep mine very 

289
00:16:02,680 --> 00:16:04,560
often, OK. 
And I think that's what they 

290
00:16:04,560 --> 00:16:09,800
were concerned about here, OK, 
But it's not a deep mine. 

291
00:16:10,120 --> 00:16:13,120
Nevertheless, it's a 
consideration that was taken 

292
00:16:13,120 --> 00:16:15,680
into account by the geotech 
guys, OK. 

293
00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:19,240
And an induced localized goes on
to say, hey, the induced 

294
00:16:19,240 --> 00:16:23,000
localized seismic response 
associated with strain bursting 

295
00:16:23,000 --> 00:16:27,440
and or pillow bursting, which is
the same thing may occur. 

296
00:16:28,000 --> 00:16:30,440
This will be contained a result 
of tight filling and correct 

297
00:16:30,440 --> 00:16:32,960
sequencing during cut and saw 
mining operations. 

298
00:16:34,080 --> 00:16:36,880
The seismicity in this case must
be related to the pillars 

299
00:16:36,880 --> 00:16:38,120
failing. 
OK. 

300
00:16:38,480 --> 00:16:41,080
And then probably because they 
were too small or the mining 

301
00:16:41,080 --> 00:16:45,240
spans were too large for that 
rock mass rating before that 

302
00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:48,120
particular rock time. 
OK. 

303
00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:56,240
And and you know in the previous
technical report that said there

304
00:16:56,240 --> 00:16:59,040
was not enough information. 
They need to do more work on it.

305
00:16:59,040 --> 00:17:02,280
I'm sure the team, they have 
been doing work on it, but they 

306
00:17:02,280 --> 00:17:06,000
made a decision based on 
recommendations by subject 

307
00:17:06,000 --> 00:17:08,520
matter experts to do a 
particular mining method and 

308
00:17:08,520 --> 00:17:11,839
then they went and mined it. 
And now what's happened is they 

309
00:17:11,839 --> 00:17:14,720
found that the regional low 
bearing capacity of this pillar 

310
00:17:14,720 --> 00:17:17,560
seems to be aggression. 
OK. 

311
00:17:18,079 --> 00:17:20,640
And that's the question that 
they are probably looking into 

312
00:17:20,640 --> 00:17:24,480
right now. 
Is it that bad that they have to

313
00:17:24,880 --> 00:17:28,280
go and redevelop a whole, you 
know, new mine adjacent to the 

314
00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:32,240
existing mine? 
Or is it is it going to be 

315
00:17:34,040 --> 00:17:40,360
something that is, you know, 
maybe they can manage, maybe 

316
00:17:40,360 --> 00:17:43,640
it's just, you know, a localized
area in this in a one in, you 

317
00:17:43,640 --> 00:17:45,480
know, in a in one section of the
mine. 

318
00:17:45,720 --> 00:17:48,520
They can still continue to mine.
And then they have to ask 

319
00:17:48,520 --> 00:17:51,680
yourself the question, what 
mining method were they using? 

320
00:17:51,680 --> 00:17:55,360
And it was a drift and full 
mining method with backfill is a

321
00:17:55,360 --> 00:17:58,760
brand new backfill plant on 
site, fully commissioned, very 

322
00:17:58,760 --> 00:18:02,080
state-of-the-art. 
But there could have been a 

323
00:18:02,080 --> 00:18:04,400
management decision there. 
And that's what I seduced it as 

324
00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:05,240
well. 
There might have been a 

325
00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:08,720
management decision to delay the
backfilling and just mine the 

326
00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:12,400
primary drifts and then not not 
come back and backfill them, 

327
00:18:12,400 --> 00:18:14,800
just mine the primary drifts and
keep going because it's such a 

328
00:18:14,800 --> 00:18:17,280
huge ore body. 
You could probably get away with

329
00:18:17,280 --> 00:18:19,880
that as long as you don't go 
back and rob any pillars. 

330
00:18:21,240 --> 00:18:24,560
Maybe maybe that's what maybe 
that's what the issue is. 

331
00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:28,880
Maybe they, you know, maybe they
should have backfilled this, OK.

332
00:18:29,360 --> 00:18:33,440
And or maybe there was secondary
extraction going ahead of time. 

333
00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:35,080
People were taking a bit of a 
chance. 

334
00:18:35,080 --> 00:18:40,800
It could be an operating thing. 
OK, The geotech consultants will

335
00:18:41,120 --> 00:18:43,680
be quick to jump on that. 
If that is the case, I'm sure, 

336
00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:47,680
OK. 
And I'm sure the truth will come

337
00:18:47,680 --> 00:18:50,760
out in the wash, but it could 
have just been a case that the 

338
00:18:50,760 --> 00:18:54,520
pillar designs were, you know, 
it's normally multiple factors 

339
00:18:54,520 --> 00:18:56,160
as well that causes something 
like this. 

340
00:18:56,160 --> 00:18:59,160
Like any incident in the mine, 
there's not one factor that 

341
00:18:59,160 --> 00:19:03,600
normally results in an incident 
or or injury or a fatality. 

342
00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:05,360
There's normally multiple 
factors. 

343
00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:08,160
Just like, you know, when you 
look at an aircraft 

344
00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:11,480
investigation, I'm sure you've 
know about the Swiss cheese 

345
00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:16,000
municipal where you have these 
walls of safety and they but 

346
00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:19,000
each have the each have, they're
not, they're not fail safe and 

347
00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:21,840
they've got holes in them. 
And so if the holes line up 

348
00:19:22,840 --> 00:19:24,440
perfectly, then that's what 
happens. 

349
00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:26,480
So you've got to think like 
that. 

350
00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:32,880
Yeah, so. 
The, the, the way around this, 

351
00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:37,120
would it, would it have likely 
have just been to well, OK, so 

352
00:19:37,120 --> 00:19:40,160
maybe it was maybe, maybe if it 
was the lack of back filling, 

353
00:19:40,160 --> 00:19:42,120
back filling might have maybe 
mitigated it. 

354
00:19:42,120 --> 00:19:44,960
But could there also have been 
an issue with the pillar sizes 

355
00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:51,800
themselves being too too small? 
Yeah, of course, could be. 

356
00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:56,040
Yeah. 
I looked at the mining plan in 

357
00:19:56,040 --> 00:19:58,560
my tweets and I tweeted a 
picture of it. 

358
00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:02,800
You know, you could see what 
they did in 2019. 

359
00:20:03,160 --> 00:20:04,880
And then here's a photograph of 
the mine. 

360
00:20:04,880 --> 00:20:08,440
What's being mined? 
In 2000 and not a photograph, 

361
00:20:08,440 --> 00:20:11,440
but as built part of the mine 
and you can have a look, you can

362
00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:15,280
see, you can see the drifts that
they've mined and they mine out 

363
00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:18,080
very quite a large area. 
It looks like about 500 meters 

364
00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:22,680
more in span over maybe a 
kilometer or two. 

365
00:20:23,520 --> 00:20:26,400
It's I mean they've been mining 
at quite a right there. 

366
00:20:27,040 --> 00:20:29,160
And so that's a big area that's 
mined. 

367
00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:31,680
And it's like, you know, coal 
mines developed like that too, 

368
00:20:31,680 --> 00:20:34,760
which is a very flat ore body. 
So it's very similar to coal 

369
00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:40,040
mining, underground coal mining.
And when you do board and pillar

370
00:20:40,040 --> 00:20:42,520
mining and coal mining, you 
know, you've also got to bear in

371
00:20:42,520 --> 00:20:47,280
mind that your pillars have to 
be designed for for the full 

372
00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:51,320
load over the full span. 
And if one area fails, the 

373
00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:54,320
weight be the load in that area 
that's failed can transfer them 

374
00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:56,880
to the adjacent area. 
And I think that's what's 

375
00:20:56,880 --> 00:21:00,880
happened here. 
And unfortunately, it looks like

376
00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:05,040
it's gone a bit close to the 
development into the, you know, 

377
00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:07,640
the main, the main axis 
development it might have, that 

378
00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:10,160
might have gone and affected the
main access declines. 

379
00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:15,160
And I only only come to that 
conclusion because the pump 

380
00:21:15,280 --> 00:21:19,040
pumping system was damaged and 
they're looking at replacing, 

381
00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:24,480
you know, getting a new pumps 
and new and new lines to to keep

382
00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:28,800
the mind dry. 
And I would imagine those lines 

383
00:21:28,800 --> 00:21:31,480
will probably be in the main 
access decline if you would 

384
00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:33,400
think that would be in a more 
protected area. 

385
00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:37,200
So. 
So that is a concern, yeah. 

386
00:21:37,480 --> 00:21:41,640
When you, when you highlight 
those two photos, 1 from 2019, 

387
00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:46,040
yeah, the other one from 2023, 
what are you comparing there and

388
00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:47,960
and sort of seeing that's 
different? 

389
00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:52,080
You can see the block that they 
said room and pillar mining 

390
00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:54,560
area. 
OK, I look at that room and 

391
00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:57,200
pillar mining area there in 
scale and I can see the green 

392
00:21:57,200 --> 00:22:00,040
declines going down there. 
And I switch over to the next 

393
00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:05,120
picture, you know as built in 
June 2022 and I can see that 

394
00:22:05,120 --> 00:22:08,200
room and pillar mining area. 
They've done some room and 

395
00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:11,000
pillar mining there and then 
there's lots of fingers going 

396
00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:12,680
along there. 
If you look very small, they're 

397
00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:16,880
all Gray fingers. 
And those are the developments 

398
00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:19,800
and in between all the pillars, 
OK. 

399
00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:22,440
And I'm not sure which of the 
pillars have failed and which 

400
00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:26,040
have not, but I have to imagine 
that all of those pillars have 

401
00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:30,040
gone and they've moved over 
towards the North Port or access

402
00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:32,920
area, which is looks like the 
mining gets quite close there, 

403
00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:38,360
OK, to that E service perimeter,
E perimeter service drift that 

404
00:22:38,360 --> 00:22:42,880
they've got planned there, OK. 
And I don't know if you can show

405
00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:44,160
the audience. 
Yeah. 

406
00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:48,040
But that area there between the 
North Port and the east 

407
00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:52,280
perimeter service drift is what 
I think is where I imagine the 

408
00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:55,560
pump column might be. 
That service drift is a decline 

409
00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:58,440
going down, probably downed up 
by the looks of it. 

410
00:22:59,360 --> 00:23:04,120
And and we've got to see, you 
know, that axis will be cut off.

411
00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:08,440
The part of the analysis you, 
you, you know, you've put out 

412
00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:13,640
there that grab grabs me and 
clearly the the share market as 

413
00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:16,600
as well was kind of your, your 
thumb sucking implications that 

414
00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:21,040
there might be for both both my 
life and and operating costs. 

415
00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:27,320
How, how did you, how'd you come
up with with those numbers? 

416
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:36,400
Good question. 
It's I guess it's a it's what I 

417
00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:41,800
think could be the implication. 
I mean, if you look at the again

418
00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:47,880
at the map, I imagine that N 
portal ramps pretty good down to

419
00:23:48,280 --> 00:23:50,040
the bottom of the straight 
section there. 

420
00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:54,560
But maybe you have to redevelop 
all the way around to get to 

421
00:23:54,560 --> 00:23:58,000
access, you know, you have to 
develop all around, right around

422
00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:00,560
that caved area. 
And the worst case scenario, 

423
00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:05,960
it's quite a lot of development.
There's no scale on this 

424
00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:09,880
particular plan, but those are 
big ends. 

425
00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:11,960
Those are 6 by 6m ends, twin 
ends. 

426
00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:14,920
They're, you know, forming the 
east service perimeter drifts. 

427
00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:16,320
There's two of them running down
there. 

428
00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:19,480
So you can get an idea. 
It's a couple 100 meters, few 

429
00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:23,440
100 meters, maybe 1000 meters of
development that you'd need to 

430
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:26,680
reconnect to that existing 
design for the east perimeter 

431
00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:29,240
service drift. 
And then you have to go back 

432
00:24:29,240 --> 00:24:32,880
into the ore body and develop 
into the ore new new access 

433
00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:36,400
drifts. 
So I don't think it's that 

434
00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:41,200
unreasonable to say it could be 
anything from 6 to 18 months if 

435
00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:44,120
you have to redevelop the mind 
if that whole area is unsafe to 

436
00:24:44,120 --> 00:24:47,000
go back into. 
But as I said, those pillars 

437
00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:49,960
might be good enough. 
You know, if the size MIDI 

438
00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:53,320
settles down and the whole thing
settles down, you may still be 

439
00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:56,120
able to go back into the area. 
That's where the pillars are 

440
00:24:56,120 --> 00:24:58,720
burst and you may still be able 
to use some of that 

441
00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:02,160
infrastructure again, you know, 
and do it safely. 

442
00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:06,840
And then just brack, you know, 
and then the impact will be a 

443
00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:10,280
lot lower. 
We'll, I'm sure everybody's 

444
00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:12,880
doing their sums and their 
design work and the inspections 

445
00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:15,200
and that and and working out 
what to do. 

446
00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:18,600
And we need to give the company 
some time to to come up with a 

447
00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:24,080
plan how to how to, you know, 
how to re establish this again, 

448
00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:27,320
if we look at the resource and 
reserve, most likely we're going

449
00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:32,280
to have a decrease in the 
reserve because you have to you 

450
00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:35,880
know, in your reserve caps, you 
leave pillars outside, outside a

451
00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:39,120
reserve reserve is what you can 
actually put in the mill. 

452
00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:43,440
So any pillars that you leave 
behind, stability pillars you 

453
00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:46,160
leave behind will have to come 
out of the reserve, out of the 

454
00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:50,240
reserve. 
And obviously if this has 

455
00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:52,760
failed, we need to be more 
conservative with our design. 

456
00:25:52,760 --> 00:25:56,240
So one would naturally cook 2. 
The pillars have to be bigger. 

457
00:25:57,120 --> 00:26:01,080
OK, it's possible they won't. 
I mean, if they can work out a 

458
00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:06,720
way to backfill and do, you 
know, complete extraction, that 

459
00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:09,280
would be great. 
But that would be another whole 

460
00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:13,160
new mining method altogether. 
And I don't know what the 

461
00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:15,320
geotechnical implications of 
that would be. 

462
00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:22,440
OK, but but but I suppose that's
a possibility. 

463
00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:24,680
I think more realistically 
they'll probably end up going 

464
00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:28,080
with bigger pillars and that 
would mean, you know, how much 

465
00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:30,600
bigger pillars do you need? 
I don't know the answer to that.

466
00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:35,280
But you know, even if the 
pillars are 10% bigger, you're 

467
00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:38,600
probably looking at about a 
probably looking at about a 30% 

468
00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:43,840
reduction in reserves. 
Yeah, OK, maybe maybe less, but 

469
00:26:43,840 --> 00:26:46,760
probably something like that 
looking at this layout be. 

470
00:26:47,000 --> 00:26:49,760
Substantial, OK. 
But it's substantial. 

471
00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:51,560
But it's not. 
It's not really. 

472
00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:54,160
An. 
Enormous resource. 

473
00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:56,040
It's such a magnificent 
resource. 

474
00:26:56,240 --> 00:27:00,240
OK, so that it's just going to 
take longer to longer to mine 

475
00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:04,160
and it'll take them much longer 
to ramp up to the planned the 

476
00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:07,240
planned numbers that they've, 
you know they've got in their 

477
00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:13,040
the phases of phase four phase. 
I can't remember which phase 

478
00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:16,800
they're on now, but in the next 
phase of expansion, OK. 

479
00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:20,920
So it'll just be a slower ramp 
up and they also obviously doing

480
00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:24,600
homework as I mentioned, I think
they'll they'll they'll be 

481
00:27:24,600 --> 00:27:28,240
looking at increasing production
from Kamoa and maybe they can 

482
00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:32,160
fast track the IT seems that 
Kakula W is not that badly 

483
00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:34,440
affected. 
If you look at the map, it also 

484
00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:38,360
seems like you know that South 
portal ramp is a little bit 

485
00:27:38,360 --> 00:27:40,640
further away from most of the 
minings to date. 

486
00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:44,280
So not as much bypass 
development may be required 

487
00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:47,800
there to go and re establish 
something to the West and maybe 

488
00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:49,520
they can get into that a bit 
faster. 

489
00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:51,760
Gotcha. 
So. 

490
00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:53,840
So we've got to wait and see 
what they say there. 

491
00:27:55,120 --> 00:27:58,080
Gotcha. 
The twin D the twin twin portals

492
00:27:58,080 --> 00:28:01,400
in this case, you would you 
would you would assume you know 

493
00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:05,480
helps the continuity of of 
operations as opposed to having 

494
00:28:05,480 --> 00:28:08,760
like a an elongated period where
you can't actually mine right, 

495
00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:12,040
correct, correct. 
Yeah. 

496
00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:15,040
You know, and I guess, you know,
you look at all the plan 

497
00:28:15,040 --> 00:28:19,320
development there, it's quite 
hard to see, you know, with 

498
00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:21,960
this, you know, simplified 
diagrams for this would be much 

499
00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:25,760
better to see more detail. 
And I think there is more detail

500
00:28:25,760 --> 00:28:27,040
available there. 
I haven't looked. 

501
00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:32,280
Ivan has been very good at 
presenting detail on their 

502
00:28:32,280 --> 00:28:35,520
expansion plans as they go with,
you know, presentations and 

503
00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:38,120
videos. 
And I've been, you know, been 

504
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:40,720
looking at these for months and 
months and years and years. 

505
00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:44,240
Every quarter that I think every
month they put out a new photo 

506
00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:48,200
album of each of their projects.
And it's very interesting to see

507
00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:50,760
what they do. 
There's a lot of very good info 

508
00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:56,200
that I get from from those photo
reports and, and, and what their

509
00:28:56,200 --> 00:28:57,920
display is really impressive 
stuff. 

510
00:28:58,600 --> 00:29:01,280
And with this team that they've 
got, they'll, they'll do the 

511
00:29:01,280 --> 00:29:04,760
best that they can do. 
It's unfortunate markets don't 

512
00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:10,440
really give credit to teams, you
know, for success really. 

513
00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:15,080
They've quicker to give this 
credit to discredit the team 

514
00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:16,800
when they have something like 
this. 

515
00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:20,280
And I've mentioned that in one 
of my comments to some of the 

516
00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:23,960
questions that got to these 
tweets is, you know, it's it's 

517
00:29:23,960 --> 00:29:26,680
very easy for us to say, yeah, 
it could be management and it 

518
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:30,080
could be management, right? 
But these guys have done a 

519
00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:31,720
really good job, really good job
of it. 

520
00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:34,720
So we should give them the 
opportunity to see what they can

521
00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:37,320
do to come back. 
Market doesn't care about that, 

522
00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:38,560
though. 
Market's going to sell on the 

523
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:41,280
news, right? 
Market's forward-looking, yeah, 

524
00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:42,840
You know, unfortunately. 
Done. 

525
00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:45,200
It's baked in, it's baked in 
now. 

526
00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:49,320
So you know, so now everybody 
wants to know well what how bad 

527
00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:51,720
is the impact? 
And it's hard to say with the 

528
00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:54,760
information we got and we're 
really just grasping at strolls 

529
00:29:54,760 --> 00:29:57,360
here. 
But but I try to give it a go 

530
00:29:57,440 --> 00:30:01,200
and, and I decided that for now,
I'm backing out. 

531
00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:04,920
So I sold my stock. 
And but that doesn't mean I 

532
00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:06,920
think the company's going to do 
badly. 

533
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:10,640
I just think it's, you know, a 
wise thing to do. 

534
00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:14,040
And, you know, I'm sure they'll 
come up with a plan to resolve 

535
00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:18,400
this and, and, you know, they'll
get back into it again. 

536
00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:20,600
And this is mining it mining has
these problems. 

537
00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:23,720
Projects, they all, you know, we
always say project get delayed, 

538
00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:26,800
projects will be late and they 
will overrun on costs. 

539
00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:30,400
You're always guaranteed that to
happen on every project. 

540
00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:33,680
This one kind of that's 
happening maybe a little bit 

541
00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:37,040
later in the cycle. 
We're really in operation, which

542
00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:41,440
is not good, but there's so much
expansion going on within, 

543
00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:43,640
within this, you know, mining 
complex here. 

544
00:30:45,680 --> 00:30:47,640
It's something that I'm sure 
that they'll be able to deal 

545
00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:54,280
with in the medium term. 
Yeah, yeah, it's we're always 

546
00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:55,840
forward-looking for sure. 
But I don't think any other 

547
00:30:55,840 --> 00:30:59,080
company could have could have 
done what what has been done in 

548
00:30:59,080 --> 00:31:01,160
this part of the world to 
actually bring this operation 

549
00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:03,960
online in the 1st place and. 
The market needs to be patient 

550
00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:08,360
because if they, you know, and I
and I guess that's the danger. 

551
00:31:08,360 --> 00:31:10,120
That's what happened with the 
pressure users. 

552
00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:13,040
You know, I know what it's like 
with these things. 

553
00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:15,560
Yeah. 
You know, when you're on the 

554
00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:18,520
side of this, something like 
this happening, you, you almost 

555
00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:24,640
go through a phase of denial, 
OK, And then acceptance, you 

556
00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:27,160
know, and anger, you know, all 
the phases you get when you've 

557
00:31:27,160 --> 00:31:30,120
got a terminal disease or 
something, you know, it's a 

558
00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:33,040
similar type of thing. 
And you have to be capable. 

559
00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:36,840
I mean, if you're an executive, 
you know, responsible for an 

560
00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:39,680
operation like this, you can't 
just go out there and put up. 

561
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:42,360
You got to make sure you have 
all the facts and you've got to 

562
00:31:42,360 --> 00:31:44,880
have it signed off. 
Then you got to hear what the 

563
00:31:44,880 --> 00:31:48,000
experts say and you got to hear 
what your people say. 

564
00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:51,360
And then you've got to make some
tough decisions and you've got 

565
00:31:51,360 --> 00:31:53,800
to think about how you're going 
to formulate this to the market.

566
00:31:54,200 --> 00:31:56,440
You've got to try and do it in 
the best possible light, of 

567
00:31:56,440 --> 00:31:58,880
course, because you want to have
a minimal impact to your 

568
00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:04,680
business, I mean, to your share 
price really, You know, if we 

569
00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:08,920
were honest about it and, and 
you know, if you think about the

570
00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:14,040
concept of a company, mining 
company or any company, I have 

571
00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:19,080
this rather naive, well told us 
naive way of thinking about it. 

572
00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:22,360
You know the old ways you buy, 
you buy a company stock because 

573
00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:25,920
you believe in the future, your 
future, you know, and the value 

574
00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:28,360
of that stock is should be 
directly proportional to the 

575
00:32:28,360 --> 00:32:30,680
future value of the dividends. 
Yeah, yeah, yeah. 

576
00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:32,240
I don't worry. 
I still think that way too. 

577
00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:35,040
But not not everything. 
Not everything's valued on DCF 

578
00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:37,360
these days in mining. 
But you've got all these people 

579
00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:39,560
who have to short the stock on 
news. 

580
00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:41,920
OK, That makes things really, 
really difficult, Pop. 

581
00:32:43,600 --> 00:32:47,040
Shops. 
So, you know, it's kind of crazy

582
00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:49,960
that the companies, the share 
price dropped as much as it has 

583
00:32:49,960 --> 00:32:53,800
because you know, there's other 
mines that this company has 

584
00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:56,800
control of. 
And you know, while this is a 

585
00:32:56,800 --> 00:32:59,520
big part of it, it's, it's not 
20%. 

586
00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:01,120
Right. 
Yeah. 

587
00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:09,040
The the, the, the one part of 
everything that that couldn't 

588
00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:12,320
help but notice, Neil, any 
commentary was and it relates to

589
00:33:12,320 --> 00:33:15,440
press releases, but Turner's law
of mining press releases. 

590
00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:16,720
Now, I actually haven't heard of
this before. 

591
00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:20,600
I'm, you know, I'd love to, I'd 
love to just just hear you tell 

592
00:33:20,600 --> 00:33:23,880
me about that and that relates. 
There's a there's a newsletter 

593
00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:25,640
writer by the name of Mark 
Turner. 

594
00:33:25,640 --> 00:33:26,800
Oh, yeah. 
Yeah, yeah, yeah. 

595
00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:32,400
And he's he's the one who's 
always said that, you know, if, 

596
00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:36,240
if a mining company has to put 
out, given the mining company 

597
00:33:36,240 --> 00:33:39,640
has to put out. 
Boyd News always has to always 

598
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:42,880
present news in the best 
possible light, you know, So if 

599
00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:46,320
it's bad news that comes out, it
must be very bad. 

600
00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:49,040
OK. 
Indeed, All right. 

601
00:33:49,040 --> 00:33:53,200
And I guess it's tongue in 
cheek, but it's true. 

602
00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:57,880
You know, unfortunately, you 
know, we've seen that before 

603
00:33:57,880 --> 00:34:01,120
with, you know, with many 
companies, you know, that have 

604
00:34:01,120 --> 00:34:06,960
to release bad news. 
You know, there's that 

605
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:11,480
Australian, my Capricorn. 
Yeah, well, 29 medals can be 

606
00:34:11,480 --> 00:34:13,560
gone, Copper. 
Right, 31 medals. 

607
00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:15,800
Yeah, OK, It just got worse 
somewhere such. 

608
00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:20,080
A great yeah, I mean, there's a 
perfect example yeah. 

609
00:34:20,159 --> 00:34:25,320
OK, it's sometimes that happens 
and you know it's mining. 

610
00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:29,159
We mining, we say, you know, 
shit happens, you got to deal 

611
00:34:29,159 --> 00:34:33,080
with it so. 
So that's what happens here and.

612
00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:35,600
And they got to deal with it and
they'll get through it. 

613
00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:40,760
And hopefully the whole 
management team responsible for 

614
00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:43,960
this don't get fired. 
Hopefully they, you know, they, 

615
00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:47,000
they carry on going. 
And if they do get fired, it's 

616
00:34:47,000 --> 00:34:48,719
because they haven't done the 
right job. 

617
00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:51,560
They haven't done, haven't made 
the right decision. 

618
00:34:51,639 --> 00:34:54,159
They've made a bad decision. 
Yeah, OK. 

619
00:34:56,440 --> 00:34:59,800
But I imagine, imagine they'll 
survive it given the great 

620
00:34:59,800 --> 00:35:02,720
performance to date. 
It's in a difficult jurisdiction

621
00:35:02,720 --> 00:35:05,200
as well. 
And that's part of the problem. 

622
00:35:05,520 --> 00:35:07,200
These sort of things, 
unfortunately are going to 

623
00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:10,240
happen more and more going 
forward because there's less and

624
00:35:10,240 --> 00:35:14,400
less good mining people out 
there who can, who are able to 

625
00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:19,600
run mines and mining companies. 
You get, you get accountants and

626
00:35:19,600 --> 00:35:24,240
apologies to the accountants who
are CE OS and, and business 

627
00:35:24,240 --> 00:35:29,200
development guys and, and bank, 
you know, bankers who are CE OS 

628
00:35:29,560 --> 00:35:33,680
mining CE OS, but they, they 
don't really know much about 

629
00:35:33,680 --> 00:35:37,880
mining and, and, and it's easy 
to cut costs, but, but is that 

630
00:35:37,880 --> 00:35:39,280
really the right thing for the 
mine? 

631
00:35:39,800 --> 00:35:43,040
And, you know, you can get into 
the whole quagmire stuff. 

632
00:35:43,040 --> 00:35:45,840
But I think that's the biggest 
problem is we've got, and the 

633
00:35:45,840 --> 00:35:48,240
mining engineers we've got 
aren't really that good. 

634
00:35:49,880 --> 00:35:53,000
The few good ones that are out 
there are taken. 

635
00:35:53,440 --> 00:35:56,280
And you know, everybody who 
comes out of university wants to

636
00:35:56,280 --> 00:35:59,400
become a manager tomorrow and no
one really wants to do the dog 

637
00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:03,080
work, you know, and be a drill 
operator and A and A and a shift

638
00:36:03,080 --> 00:36:06,720
supervisor for five years. 
And and you know, they want to 

639
00:36:06,720 --> 00:36:09,040
get promoted. 
And because there's no one in 

640
00:36:09,040 --> 00:36:11,480
the business doing mining, no 
one wants to go into mining and 

641
00:36:11,480 --> 00:36:15,200
the kids want to go into mining.
There's there's less skills out 

642
00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:17,640
there. 
And so people get promoted 

643
00:36:17,640 --> 00:36:20,920
really fast, too fast. 
And they don't have the 

644
00:36:20,920 --> 00:36:22,960
experience and certain 
experience, you know, even 

645
00:36:22,960 --> 00:36:27,320
amongst the miners you get guys 
who you make, you make, you 

646
00:36:27,320 --> 00:36:29,640
know, bad decisions because they
just don't have the experience. 

647
00:36:29,640 --> 00:36:31,840
They haven't had enough time 
learning from the old timers how

648
00:36:31,840 --> 00:36:35,720
to how to mine and what to look 
for when you look in a mine when

649
00:36:35,720 --> 00:36:39,640
you go and visit a mine. 
If I was, if I, if I didn't 

650
00:36:39,640 --> 00:36:42,200
already decide to be a finance 
guy in Yale, I'd be listening to

651
00:36:42,200 --> 00:36:44,800
you right now. 
And I'd, I'd, you know, I'd 

652
00:36:44,800 --> 00:36:47,240
just, I'd, I'd study mining 
engineering. 

653
00:36:47,240 --> 00:36:48,400
And I know because. 
There's a skill. 

654
00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:51,040
Shortage. 
I'm going to get paid so well in

655
00:36:51,880 --> 00:36:52,840
the future. 
Right. 

656
00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:57,720
But the thing, but I mean the 
number of of guys, you know, I 

657
00:36:57,720 --> 00:37:00,480
take a lot of respect for the 
old time and minor guys who 

658
00:37:00,480 --> 00:37:03,160
didn't go through and didn't get
a degree in mining. 

659
00:37:04,120 --> 00:37:08,040
And they they are sidelined, you
know, because other guys have 

660
00:37:08,040 --> 00:37:10,720
degrees, but they're the ones 
with the real experience. 

661
00:37:10,720 --> 00:37:12,960
They're the ones who teach the 
people with degrees something. 

662
00:37:12,960 --> 00:37:16,080
But it takes time to do that. 
And if the young guys are high 

663
00:37:16,080 --> 00:37:18,560
fire, he's going to take the 
highest job. 

664
00:37:18,560 --> 00:37:21,800
I mean most of most young mining
people that take the highest 

665
00:37:21,800 --> 00:37:25,360
paying job they can get. 
Yeah, sometimes what you need to

666
00:37:25,360 --> 00:37:26,680
run, yeah. 
Yeah. 

667
00:37:27,840 --> 00:37:31,520
And so you end up with people 
running mines who we have half 

668
00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:35,280
the experience that should be. 
And then these sort of things 

669
00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:39,280
happen or they have a great 
control problem and the mine has

670
00:37:39,280 --> 00:37:42,400
to close down because they 
never, they never did the, they 

671
00:37:42,400 --> 00:37:43,600
never did their homework 
properly. 

672
00:37:43,600 --> 00:37:46,520
Oh. 
Yeah, yeah. 

673
00:37:47,680 --> 00:37:51,080
So it's not surprising. 
So it's not surprising that this

674
00:37:51,080 --> 00:37:53,560
sort of thing could happen even 
with a large company like 

675
00:37:53,560 --> 00:37:56,160
Ivanhoe. 
You would hope that you guys 

676
00:37:56,160 --> 00:37:59,320
would attract the best. 
But you know, it's this. 

677
00:37:59,320 --> 00:38:02,520
Mine is in the DRC. 
It's not that easy to work 

678
00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:04,560
there. 
You know, I've got friends 

679
00:38:04,560 --> 00:38:07,480
who've worked out being there. 
It's not. 

680
00:38:07,880 --> 00:38:09,800
There's better places in the 
world you can work. 

681
00:38:09,800 --> 00:38:13,360
And so they have to pay very 
well and they may not get the 

682
00:38:13,360 --> 00:38:15,520
right people there. 
I don't know if they can. 

683
00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:18,880
I know I've turned down a couple
of Congolese jobs. 

684
00:38:20,600 --> 00:38:21,920
I went to the Congo earlier this
year. 

685
00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:27,000
I didn't make it to to cooler 
Ocamo, but but yeah, that was a 

686
00:38:28,240 --> 00:38:31,520
an absolutely transcendental 
experience flying into 

687
00:38:31,520 --> 00:38:33,200
Lumumbashi airport, I tell you 
that much. 

688
00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:36,960
I mean, I do love, don't get me 
wrong. 

689
00:38:36,960 --> 00:38:41,560
I love parts of the DRC, you 
know, but Lumumbashi area and 

690
00:38:41,560 --> 00:38:43,640
the copper belt area, I don't. 
I don't love. 

691
00:38:43,720 --> 00:38:50,960
Yeah. 
Unbelievable. 

692
00:38:51,360 --> 00:38:54,400
Neil, this has been an absolute 
privilege to, to get your 

693
00:38:54,400 --> 00:38:56,440
insights. 
And you know, I'm, I'm certainly

694
00:38:56,440 --> 00:38:57,920
very grateful. 
I'm sure our audience will be 

695
00:38:57,920 --> 00:39:00,560
extremely grateful that you've 
been generous enough to, to 

696
00:39:00,560 --> 00:39:02,960
share your, you know, your, 
your, your views, reading 

697
00:39:02,960 --> 00:39:06,360
between the lines and tying it 
all in with your decades of real

698
00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:09,480
mining experience. 
Extremely valuable. 

699
00:39:09,760 --> 00:39:12,800
If anyone's interested in in 
finding Neil is prolific on 

700
00:39:12,800 --> 00:39:16,240
Twitter, I'll put a link in the 
in the shower notes. 

701
00:39:16,240 --> 00:39:18,760
But thank you so much, Neil. 
This has been, this has been 

702
00:39:18,760 --> 00:39:21,840
absolutely. 
Travis was good talking to you 

703
00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:23,600
and hope to talk to you again 
sometime. 

704
00:39:23,760 --> 00:39:26,480
Mate, how good was that insight?
Unreal. 

705
00:39:26,640 --> 00:39:28,320
Unreal. 
Yeah, Neil is just like an 

706
00:39:28,320 --> 00:39:30,720
absolute wealth of technical 
knowledge. 

707
00:39:31,360 --> 00:39:33,960
Very generous to share, share 
his insights with us, I think. 

708
00:39:34,600 --> 00:39:36,520
And it was interesting, right. 
One thing we didn't even cover 

709
00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:39,360
with him, but I've been thinking
about mate, it's. 

710
00:39:39,360 --> 00:39:41,680
Just like. 
You know, there's been this like

711
00:39:41,680 --> 00:39:45,560
real flurry of, of unexpected 
disruptions in mining operations

712
00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:47,680
lately, especially in Africa as 
well. 

713
00:39:47,680 --> 00:39:51,080
Not just Kokola, but like in the
last few months I've noticed 

714
00:39:51,880 --> 00:39:54,920
obviously Alfman's biasing mine 
when that got suspended because 

715
00:39:54,920 --> 00:39:58,600
the rebels got close. 
Cyrus Bulama, I got suspended 

716
00:39:58,840 --> 00:40:02,480
when farmers protested of all 
things, Sibanya's Cloof mine, 

717
00:40:02,640 --> 00:40:05,720
waste failure in the shaft. 
I'm pretty sure all those things

718
00:40:05,720 --> 00:40:07,720
were within the last couple of 
months alone. 

719
00:40:08,640 --> 00:40:11,720
It's pretty brutal for the 
mining companies out there, so I

720
00:40:11,720 --> 00:40:14,640
think there's a sort of lesson 
to expect the unexpected if 

721
00:40:14,640 --> 00:40:17,440
you're in the mining business. 
That is a good saying. 

722
00:40:17,480 --> 00:40:19,320
I think we should put that one 
on the wall, mate. 

723
00:40:19,880 --> 00:40:23,200
I like that. 
Yeah, it's it's interesting, 

724
00:40:23,200 --> 00:40:25,200
right? 
You think about it because the 

725
00:40:25,200 --> 00:40:30,520
best preparation you can have to
be ready for the unexpected is 

726
00:40:30,520 --> 00:40:32,920
actually just making sure that 
your insurance policies are 

727
00:40:32,920 --> 00:40:37,240
appropriate for your mines 
bespoke risks. 100% mate, mining

728
00:40:37,240 --> 00:40:40,920
companies cannot afford to have 
insurance policies that are not 

729
00:40:40,960 --> 00:40:43,440
up to scratch. 
I just don't think it's 

730
00:40:43,440 --> 00:40:46,360
conducive to a good night, good 
night's sleep if you're a minor 

731
00:40:46,480 --> 00:40:49,720
right and the worst thing about 
it is it hits you when you can 

732
00:40:49,720 --> 00:40:52,400
least afford to be hit. 
That's. 

733
00:40:52,400 --> 00:40:55,600
Why you got to call CRE 
insurance JD they have the. 2. 

734
00:40:55,600 --> 00:40:57,040
Gurus. 
The gurus. 

735
00:40:57,040 --> 00:41:00,040
In mining and construction 
insurance for underground for 

736
00:41:00,040 --> 00:41:04,600
open pit or infrastructure 
projects, gurus, get yourself 

737
00:41:04,600 --> 00:41:07,840
covered for all possibilities. 
The unexpected things is what 

738
00:41:07,840 --> 00:41:08,960
you've got to be worried about, 
mate. 

739
00:41:09,320 --> 00:41:12,240
Gets even better mate. 
They don't do cookie cutter 

740
00:41:12,240 --> 00:41:13,440
solutions. 
Tailored. 

741
00:41:13,440 --> 00:41:15,640
We're talking tailored 
solutions, right for your 

742
00:41:15,640 --> 00:41:18,520
company, right for your 
situation, right for your mind, 

743
00:41:18,520 --> 00:41:20,920
right for all the risks you are 
going to face, the ones you know

744
00:41:20,920 --> 00:41:22,760
about, the ones you don't know 
about. 

745
00:41:22,760 --> 00:41:25,320
And we're talking dealing with 
experts. 

746
00:41:25,440 --> 00:41:28,200
Quick and easy claims mate. 
I think every, every mining 

747
00:41:28,200 --> 00:41:30,400
disruption, it's you didn't 
expect it. 

748
00:41:30,520 --> 00:41:32,080
If you expected it probably 
would have happened. 

749
00:41:32,160 --> 00:41:35,520
You know, that's like everyone 
thinks that their policies have 

750
00:41:35,720 --> 00:41:37,480
sufficient coverage and then 
something comes up and it was 

751
00:41:37,480 --> 00:41:40,520
like, oh, damn it, if only I had
bespoke insurance brokers that 

752
00:41:40,520 --> 00:41:44,000
properly understand the bespoke 
mining risk of the jurisdiction 

753
00:41:44,000 --> 00:41:46,880
and operation that I have and 
can ensure my policies are 

754
00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:49,480
adequate and can price things 
appropriately. 

755
00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:51,680
Oh, wait, they exist, mate. 
It's called CRE insurance. 

756
00:41:51,720 --> 00:41:53,960
Oh, by the way, mining 
contractors, mining service 

757
00:41:53,960 --> 00:41:57,040
providers gets even better 
because because they understand 

758
00:41:57,040 --> 00:42:00,120
mining, it means that they will 
get you better policies at a 

759
00:42:00,120 --> 00:42:02,320
better price. 
Thanks for the support CRE. 

760
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:05,120
Go CRE right now to the 
conversation with Koala. 

761
00:42:05,120 --> 00:42:11,600
Have you got any thoughts? 
Not a mining engineer, so hard 

762
00:42:11,600 --> 00:42:16,000
to want to be guarded in my 
comments because it's not my 

763
00:42:16,000 --> 00:42:19,920
area of expertise. 
I know the I've no people to be 

764
00:42:20,600 --> 00:42:23,880
exceptional and straightforward 
operators. 

765
00:42:23,920 --> 00:42:28,520
I think that they wouldn't have 
had a site visit that I 

766
00:42:28,520 --> 00:42:32,760
understand they cancelled or 
anything if they thought that 

767
00:42:32,760 --> 00:42:35,080
the initial seismic was going to
continue. 

768
00:42:36,040 --> 00:42:38,720
And I think this is one of these
just very unfortunate 

769
00:42:38,720 --> 00:42:42,160
situations. 
And you know what? 

770
00:42:42,160 --> 00:42:46,480
I will use Alpha man when Goma 
felt M23 or when the mindset is 

771
00:42:46,480 --> 00:42:48,840
an example. 
The market hates a void of 

772
00:42:48,840 --> 00:42:52,840
information and uncertainty. 
You have a spike of uncertainty 

773
00:42:53,840 --> 00:42:56,840
if you take the complete bullish
case, it's ah, there's so much 

774
00:42:56,840 --> 00:42:59,800
copper there. 
One or two quarters doesn't 

775
00:42:59,800 --> 00:43:01,880
change the NAV on a 40 year mine
life. 

776
00:43:02,440 --> 00:43:06,640
I do think there's levers to 
pull given the Kapushi ramp that

777
00:43:06,640 --> 00:43:10,760
should generate some cash. 
We'll look forward in two to 

778
00:43:10,760 --> 00:43:14,360
three years. 
And even if a portion of Kakula 

779
00:43:14,360 --> 00:43:18,320
is sterilized, there's enough 
levers to pull there that you 

780
00:43:18,320 --> 00:43:23,800
can push more Kamoa, maybe push 
more Kakula West, develop one or

781
00:43:23,800 --> 00:43:27,240
the other. 
Like I mean, there's like 6 

782
00:43:27,240 --> 00:43:31,000
different proposed mines just in
the Kamola joint venture area. 

783
00:43:32,240 --> 00:43:36,320
You can go pull in, it'll be 
lower grade or, but you can keep

784
00:43:36,320 --> 00:43:38,640
those mills full. 
It might take a little while in 

785
00:43:38,640 --> 00:43:41,840
a worst case scenario to get 
those mills filled again. 

786
00:43:43,280 --> 00:43:46,040
But I mean, look, it's, it's not
great, but it feels like one of 

787
00:43:46,040 --> 00:43:50,720
these classic, the stock could 
be down 20 to 3040% initially 

788
00:43:50,720 --> 00:43:57,400
and we wake up in 12 months and 
it's recovered 60 to 70% of that

789
00:43:58,000 --> 00:44:00,840
damage as we just get more 
clarity and disclosure and 

790
00:44:00,840 --> 00:44:03,840
understanding what it is. 
I mean, another good example is 

791
00:44:03,840 --> 00:44:07,560
when Glencore DOJ happened, 
stocks down 10%. 

792
00:44:07,560 --> 00:44:13,680
It was down 5-6 billion in 
market cap from memory in July 

793
00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:15,800
2018. 
And then when we finally get the

794
00:44:15,800 --> 00:44:20,520
settlement like five years 
later, it's it's not even $2 

795
00:44:20,520 --> 00:44:23,240
billion. 
And it's like, why'd we freak 

796
00:44:23,240 --> 00:44:24,760
out? 
It's like, because the market 

797
00:44:24,760 --> 00:44:29,200
just hates a void. 
So I'm looking at Ivanhoe very 

798
00:44:29,200 --> 00:44:33,720
carefully. 
You don't get chances to buy 

799
00:44:33,720 --> 00:44:36,800
world class opportunities on 
sale. 

800
00:44:36,800 --> 00:44:40,960
Even if it's got a little bit of
a scratch on it now potentially,

801
00:44:41,520 --> 00:44:47,000
it's still a world class 
district opportunity and team. 

802
00:44:47,720 --> 00:44:50,280
How good was that from both, 
both both Neil and the Koala and

803
00:44:50,320 --> 00:44:53,920
a full episode with the koala 
with everything except for that 

804
00:44:53,920 --> 00:44:56,880
little quip is going to be out 
either Saturday or Sunday this 

805
00:44:56,880 --> 00:44:58,160
weekend. 
So stay tuned for that one. 

806
00:44:58,640 --> 00:45:00,120
JD, we've got some partners to 
thank. 

807
00:45:00,400 --> 00:45:03,560
We do thank you to the awesome 
partners at Mineral Mining 

808
00:45:03,560 --> 00:45:07,600
Services, MMS, Grounded, Sandvik
Ground Support, CRE Insurance, K

809
00:45:07,600 --> 00:45:11,120
Drill, KCA Side Services, Cross 
Boundary Energy and Black 

810
00:45:11,120 --> 00:45:13,160
Diamond. 
Service. 

811
00:45:14,480 --> 00:45:16,400
If you don't like it, you can 
always become a recruiter it 

812
00:45:17,000 --> 00:45:24,120
sounds like. 
That's that's easy. 

813
00:45:25,240 --> 00:45:28,280
Yeah, well, you know, you know, 
that's a very valid point. 

814
00:45:28,280 --> 00:45:30,360
All right mate, I wasn't sure. 
If you were calling to just let 

815
00:45:30,400 --> 00:45:33,000
me know or like I was actually 
recording what I was like, oh 

816
00:45:33,080 --> 00:45:35,680
shit, what I realised. 
Yeah, well, I was thinking. 

817
00:45:35,680 --> 00:45:38,760
In my head it would be funny as 
if if I put on some voice and 

818
00:45:38,760 --> 00:45:41,680
just pretend I'm some rando and 
my friend told me to call you to

819
00:45:41,680 --> 00:45:44,680
get like a job and I'm just 
asking a bunch of dumb ass 

820
00:45:44,680 --> 00:45:46,000
questions. 
But then when you answered. 

821
00:45:46,760 --> 00:45:49,280
Oh hey, Travis, you threw me off
and I was like, there goes my 

822
00:45:49,280 --> 00:45:49,880
whole stick.
