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Friday money miners. 
Thursdays, Friday in our world 

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it is. 
Why not bloody? 

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What have we got today? 
We've got 'cause Adam Prom full 

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year financial results where 
years are going into a bit of a 

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hedging spectacular. 
Absolutely. 

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Why? 
Why not? 

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Where it? 
Becomes becomes super topical 

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when people close out their 
hedges and when the commodity 

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price runs hard. 
Doesn't it matter? 

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It does, and when they close it 
out with shares, Shawn Russo is 

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going to be so proud that he's 
like LED us to the water and we 

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can do hedging episodes without 
him. 

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He's gonna, he's like. 
Proud, proud dad moment. 

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What else we got mate? 
We've got mate all. 

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Rounder grounds we've got. 
Gossip. 

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There is gossip flying 
everywhere about bloody M and A 

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and mostly gold stuff. 
At the moment I'm just gonna 

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unleash all my gossip. 
Why not? 

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It might be true, so let's do it
mate. 

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I'm approaching a freaking 
awesome week in Adelaide. 

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Oh bloody you are next, next 
next week right? 

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Underground operators buddy. 100
bucks off your tickets. 

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Make sure you grab them before 
the conference. 

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'Cause it's not having. 
It after it links in the show 

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notes and I've officially 
extended my Adelaide Bender. 

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Have you? 
I'm doing, I'm doing underground

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operators and then I'm hanging 
around for Thursday, the 

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resource rise and stars gather 
round. 

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Oh. 
Gather round. 

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Quite a pertinent name 'cause it
is the AFL gather round. 

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So mate, that's on the Thursday 
at the convention centre and 

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mate, just look at this fundies 
footy and fine wine. 

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It's. 
Probably not horrible, doesn't 

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it? 
But the make. 

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The fundies and fine wine. 
I'm gonna absolutely love that. 

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So bloody. 
Yeah, mate, Grab. 

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You're really taking one for the
team, Maddie. 

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Oh mate. 
Happy to help. 

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Koshy's gonna be there. 
Koshy. 

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Me, me and Koshy bloody. 
I don't know, I don't think I'm 

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speaking, but I might. 
I might just go up and start 

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hijacking Koshy segments. 
So I love it, right? 

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Get your bloody, get your 
tickets to that layer was in the

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director's special. 
I'll hopefully remember to Chuck

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that in the show notes. 
But bloody mate, it's all 

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happening. 
I can't wait. 

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I'm going to be busted. 
Up. 

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Go away. 
Jesus Christ, right? 

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All righty, Maddie, we've done 
prom. 

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We've taken it away. 
There's a bit more bloody, Yeah,

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there's a bit of a bit of the 
the uranium spot price has gone 

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up a dollar and it's all green 
on screen. 

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For the uranium. 
I think someone there was 

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probably, well there's 11 carry 
trade, put it up a dollar, so 

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there you go. 
There's some optimism everywhere

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we're. 
Foolish again, and a couple of 

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interesting comments out of 
Casadam Prom's full year 

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results. 
So yeah, the old what do we got?

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I'll bring up the old watch list
on screen boss up 10% bloody. 

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Where's Paladin? 
They're up a couple next Gen. 

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back up four or five. 
So there's a bit of yeah, 

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they've Oh no, change their 
changes everyday spot price back

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up to 6450 a pound US. 
So now for 'cause Adam Prom's 

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results, what do we got? 
So I hate financials, are there?

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So I just don't speak the 
language, but I'll do me best 

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revenue revenue. 
So they've the the some of the 

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whole thing that I will say that
the all the talk a year and a 

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bit ago was around the risk of 
the sulfuric acid thing for 

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because Adam prom and like these
downward guidance revisions and 

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like the risk that they're just 
not going to be able to hit 

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their targets and it's going to 
send whirlwinds. 

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But like to their credit, they 
it had they've delivered like 

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they did revise the guidance 
down, but then revised it back 

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up and they hit that guidance. 
So it actually like what the 

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whole thesis that was coming 
about didn't didn't really 

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happen looking looking back on 
it. 

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So now, so if you look at their 
revenue and they remember like 

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uranium prices going up a bit 
last year, it's come back down, 

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but from the previous year it's 
going up. 

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So it's like group revenue was 
up 26%, EBIT attributable 

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EBITDAR up 23% and cash flow up 
19%. 

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So and they're obviously siding 
the higher production cost for 

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the uranium produced like for 
inflationary pressure, higher 

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cost for purchased uranium which
is which saw their cost of sales

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up 39%, so. 
Explain that quickly, Maddie, 

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given they're the the the 
producer. 

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They're, well, they've got to my
understand they produce it, then

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sell the pounds to the JVS. 
So you're selling it to them at 

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A at a higher price. 
So that's gotcha. 

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Yeah, that little shimmy works. 
Think. 

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Yeah. 
So that they, they sold at an 

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average realized processor at 
6950. 

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Yeah, right. 
And I think the average uranium 

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price last year was in it's down
there average weekly spot price 

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last year was 8628. 
There's obviously still some a 

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lot of you know, contracts with 
Russia, China and the like. 

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What, you know, booting off 
scores first two years has gone 

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to Russia. 
So yeah, now they exceeded their

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revised guidance. 
So if you remember there in so 

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January 2024, there was sort of 
two revisions. 

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They reduced their 24 guidance 
to it was 25.3000 tonnes. 

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So I tell you tonnes of uranium 
time that times that by 2.6 to 

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get the actual U3O8. 
They dropped that from 25300 

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down to 21750 and that was all 
around the challenges of 

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sulphuric acid availability and 
construction delays at the newly

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developed projects. 
Then in August last year they 

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then increased it back up to 22 
1/2 to 23 1/2 thousand tonne AU.

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So and they, you know attribute 
that better expected operational

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performance which which led to 
that. 

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So and they actually hit 23, 
270. 

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So sorry they didn't exceed it. 
They just got pretty much at the

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at the top end. 
So as I said, they're actually 

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like, you know, delivered on it 
across all their operations on a

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on 100% basis. 
And just a refresher for those 

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who aren't aware, why is 
sulfuric acid and availability 

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of it important for producing 
uranium? 

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So, so because they're all in 
situ recovery operations, like 

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the sulfuric acid is one of the 
main components needed to, you 

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know, flush, flush the paleo 
channel to leach the uranium. 

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OK. 
As part of that process. 

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Yeah. 
And and the biggest, the bigger 

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industry that gets preference 
for sulphuric acid in Kazakhstan

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is the agricultural industry. 
So I think uranium then comes 

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second side and there's they're 
in the process of building 

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sulphuric acid plant or a couple
there at the moment. 

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But I don't think they're 
scheduled for a lot. 

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There's been delays. 
I don't think the schedule's 

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sort of 2728. 
So that's it's that. 

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Period. 
Competing sort of uses for it, 

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yeah. 
Sort of, yeah. 

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And then obviously around the 
whole Russia, Ukraine thing, 

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supply chain logistic issues 
like you couple all that 

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together. 
But it seems like they're it's 

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getting like they're producing, 
they're hitting the target. 

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So it must be subsiding bit the 
interesting bit is the group 

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inventory that fell a further 
13%. 

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So they're I guess they've got I
think their group inventory is 

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6334 thousand tonne of you. 
So I'll be out. 

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I think it's the one that the 
one that references the cap 

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inventory of finished goods, 
which is 5400, which is about 

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14,000,000 lbs. 
So they're, you know, they're 

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guiding to produce 65,000,000 
lbs and they've only got 

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14,000,000 lbs of inventory and 
that's at a decade low. 

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So, and they did come in at the 
end here that they will consider

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purchasing from the spot market 
to begin lifting inventories 

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again. 
So it's that that's sort of gone

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towards the the bulls thesis 
that if the inventories are that

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low, there's them coupled with 
all the utilities will at some 

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point have to really enter the 
market to give that give that 

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00:08:11,040 --> 00:08:12,640
catalyst they're all talking 
about. 

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So that yeah, that that is 
historical decade lies there. 

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So their, their costs have 
obviously gone up all in 

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sustaining costs has gone up 
nearly 30% up to 2765 US pound 

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00:08:25,840 --> 00:08:31,160
and their CapEx also rose to 
rose 58%. 

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And then their guidance that 
they've put out. 

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So they it already CapEx already
rose 58% to 317,000. 

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00:08:39,240 --> 00:08:42,360
I think that's what is it. 
K What's the currency called? 

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00:08:42,360 --> 00:08:45,160
Kazak. 
Kazak. 10 guy, 10 guy, 10 guy 

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00:08:45,160 --> 00:08:47,560
isn't. 
It so that comes out at a bit 

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over 600 million US, yeah. 
So and then that's that's risen 

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00:08:51,360 --> 00:08:54,440
again in their garden. 
So they've reiterated their 

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production volume guidance of 25
to 26, half thousand tonne of 

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00:08:59,080 --> 00:09:03,840
you, so about £65 million. 
But their CapEx has gone up to 

164
00:09:04,640 --> 00:09:14,480
about 400 midpoint of 400,010 
K400 billion, 10K10 guy or 10K 

165
00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:19,240
with AJ10 guy. 
There we go bloody currency 

166
00:09:19,240 --> 00:09:23,120
experts here. 
So and a lot of that you can see

167
00:09:23,120 --> 00:09:25,200
a lot. 
So there's a lot of CapEx going 

168
00:09:25,200 --> 00:09:27,040
towards booting off score that's
there. 

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00:09:27,160 --> 00:09:30,440
That's the big humdinger that's 
in the JV with Russia thing. 

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00:09:30,440 --> 00:09:34,560
It's about what is it going to 
about £16 million or something 

171
00:09:34,560 --> 00:09:37,920
6000 tonne a year. 
So a lot of CapEx going towards 

172
00:09:37,920 --> 00:09:40,800
that. 
They also mentioned the other 

173
00:09:40,800 --> 00:09:44,280
one, the Catco JV, that's the 
one with the Rano and the 

174
00:09:44,800 --> 00:09:48,760
Altaric JV. 
So, but the, I guess the 

175
00:09:48,760 --> 00:09:51,160
inference that some of the 
commentators are saying that 

176
00:09:51,240 --> 00:09:55,280
with a lot of CapEx going to 
burden off score, they're trying

177
00:09:55,280 --> 00:10:01,160
to and and reiterating guidance,
they're trying to really maybe 

178
00:10:01,320 --> 00:10:03,280
put everything into that to pull
that forward. 

179
00:10:03,280 --> 00:10:05,680
That's pull as much of that 
forward as possible and get to 

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00:10:05,680 --> 00:10:09,560
the 6000 tonne output as quick 
as I can. 

181
00:10:09,560 --> 00:10:12,360
So what's that that sorry, it's 
£14.4 million. 

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00:10:13,760 --> 00:10:16,920
So yeah, that's I think that's 
where a lot of the attentions 

183
00:10:16,920 --> 00:10:17,840
go. 
And they said they're going to 

184
00:10:17,840 --> 00:10:20,840
drop the guidance for JV in car 
because they did have the pause.

185
00:10:21,120 --> 00:10:23,600
That's the one with Kamiko. 
They did have the pause for that

186
00:10:24,520 --> 00:10:26,680
earlier in the year, but it has 
already started. 

187
00:10:27,040 --> 00:10:31,000
So yeah, it's all all booting 
off score, which is expected, 

188
00:10:31,000 --> 00:10:36,000
but the the news also coming out
yesterday and this was it's not 

189
00:10:36,000 --> 00:10:39,640
like flashing everywhere, but I 
looked at it from a couple of 

190
00:10:39,640 --> 00:10:42,640
sources. 
Quakes quakes on blue sky said 

191
00:10:42,640 --> 00:10:45,680
it quakes has got a parody 
account back on Twitter now that

192
00:10:45,680 --> 00:10:49,960
some blows some like just post 
quake shit on Twitter that he's 

193
00:10:49,960 --> 00:10:54,120
posting on blue sky. 
So, but it's saying that because

194
00:10:54,120 --> 00:10:58,760
Adam prom there's some potential
government legislation, 

195
00:10:59,680 --> 00:11:04,960
potential legislation coming in 
where for any expansion of these

196
00:11:04,960 --> 00:11:12,400
uranium JVS or future projects 
that cassatomprom will take 90% 

197
00:11:12,400 --> 00:11:15,920
share in that joint venture. 
So oh wow, a lot of these are, 

198
00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:19,080
you know, like for instance, the
one with like Catco, I think 

199
00:11:19,080 --> 00:11:23,720
it's 51% Urano for Urano, 49% 
cassatomprom. 

200
00:11:23,720 --> 00:11:28,440
So pretty much if they there, I 
think, I think that CATCO one 

201
00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:32,280
goes to their sub soil use 
agreement goes to 2038. 

202
00:11:32,280 --> 00:11:36,440
I think Kamiko Zinko JV expires 
in 2045. 

203
00:11:36,440 --> 00:11:38,640
So it's not it's they're ages 
away. 

204
00:11:38,640 --> 00:11:40,880
So they're safe to them. 
But if they wanted to expand 

205
00:11:40,880 --> 00:11:42,560
that or. 
Beyond that? 

206
00:11:42,560 --> 00:11:46,600
Point new JV for another area 
because Adam probably will take 

207
00:11:46,800 --> 00:11:49,680
90% of that JV. 
So that that's some pretty, 

208
00:11:51,000 --> 00:11:53,920
yeah, could be some, it's pretty
early news, but I think that's 

209
00:11:53,920 --> 00:11:57,640
going to be pretty influential 
news for, you know, because Adam

210
00:11:57,640 --> 00:12:01,800
Prom's control of the Kazakhstan
stuff, I don't know how that'll 

211
00:12:02,600 --> 00:12:04,880
work with Russia and everything.
It's probably a bit different 

212
00:12:04,880 --> 00:12:07,840
relationships than us old folk 
in the West. 

213
00:12:08,720 --> 00:12:13,080
But yeah, so that's going to 
definitely keep me eye on that. 

214
00:12:13,480 --> 00:12:17,440
So that's that's about it. 
They're producing uranium. 

215
00:12:17,600 --> 00:12:21,040
Go uranium. 
Well, have you got any queries, 

216
00:12:21,040 --> 00:12:24,560
JD? 
Not so much queries mate, but I,

217
00:12:24,560 --> 00:12:28,960
I had also seen to sort of go in
addition with what you said at 

218
00:12:28,960 --> 00:12:32,840
the end there about how the, the
Kazaks are viewing investment 

219
00:12:32,840 --> 00:12:35,560
in, in their country. 
And they'd sort of teed up this 

220
00:12:35,560 --> 00:12:39,440
big $2.6 billion package last 
night broader. 

221
00:12:39,440 --> 00:12:42,360
We're not just talking about 
uranium here, but minerals 

222
00:12:42,520 --> 00:12:45,640
investment. 
And the slant of it was to to 

223
00:12:45,640 --> 00:12:49,200
align it with products that the 
US want, which is a bit odd to 

224
00:12:49,200 --> 00:12:50,720
the grand. 
I haven't, I haven't gone kind 

225
00:12:50,720 --> 00:12:54,880
of deep in it, but it was 
interesting to see them aligning

226
00:12:54,880 --> 00:12:57,040
with a a potentially more 
western side. 

227
00:12:57,040 --> 00:12:59,840
And but that potentially that 
was just the the journal who 

228
00:12:59,840 --> 00:13:01,600
wrote the articles kind of take 
of it. 

229
00:13:01,880 --> 00:13:04,520
But that's one to to dive a bit 
deeper on I reckon. 

230
00:13:04,640 --> 00:13:05,840
Very much so. 
Do you? 

231
00:13:06,320 --> 00:13:09,320
Who's the bloody Gerard James 
equivalent in Kazakhstan that 

232
00:13:09,320 --> 00:13:11,760
drills out these paleo channels?
Kazakhs. 

233
00:13:11,760 --> 00:13:13,600
Who's Kazakhstan? 
Water boars. 

234
00:13:14,080 --> 00:13:16,400
I don't think he can be. 
I don't think he can be matched 

235
00:13:16,400 --> 00:13:19,880
anywhere in the world. 
No, no, but WA water boars, the 

236
00:13:19,880 --> 00:13:23,560
mud Rotary experts, the best 
bloody drillers in Australia, 

237
00:13:23,560 --> 00:13:25,880
like like they're, you know, 
they've conquered water boars, 

238
00:13:26,120 --> 00:13:28,960
uranium, paleo channels is the 
next thing and I'll keep hopping

239
00:13:28,960 --> 00:13:30,920
on and about it, but it will 
happen mate. 

240
00:13:31,080 --> 00:13:34,240
What are they mate? 
6 high capacity water well rigs,

241
00:13:34,440 --> 00:13:37,280
2 road trains. 
Cart cart around all their own 

242
00:13:37,280 --> 00:13:39,280
shit. 
Self-sufficient camps. 

243
00:13:40,640 --> 00:13:44,920
Merger opportunity. 
Sufficient grounded camps for WA

244
00:13:44,920 --> 00:13:47,800
water ball size. 
Love it, right? 

245
00:13:47,840 --> 00:13:50,200
How good's that they? 
Can drill for water or they can 

246
00:13:50,200 --> 00:13:52,800
drill for uranium, whatever 
needs mud Rotary. 

247
00:13:52,800 --> 00:13:55,560
The experts give them a buzz. 
Love it. 

248
00:13:56,000 --> 00:14:01,080
Good energy, awesome. 
Capricorn closing out the, I 

249
00:14:01,280 --> 00:14:04,520
wouldn't say the infamous hedge 
book, but it was being kicked 

250
00:14:04,520 --> 00:14:07,040
down the road a bit. 
It was coming, coming up to 

251
00:14:07,040 --> 00:14:11,480
close another year and a bit, 
wasn't it? 

252
00:14:11,680 --> 00:14:14,040
Well, after they kicked a couple
more kicked down the road. 

253
00:14:14,040 --> 00:14:16,480
But anyway, it's closed out. 
It's all good. 

254
00:14:16,760 --> 00:14:19,400
Requiring a block. 
Traded the shares already and 

255
00:14:19,880 --> 00:14:21,560
she's good to go. 
Take us through. 

256
00:14:21,560 --> 00:14:24,800
Yeah, spin the yarn. 
Yeah, so, So what they closed 

257
00:14:24,800 --> 00:14:30,440
out was 55 odd 1000 oz Maddie. 
And the the reason it's super, 

258
00:14:30,440 --> 00:14:32,800
super interesting is that they 
they did it with stock. 

259
00:14:32,800 --> 00:14:36,120
So I think that extra detail 
makes it really worth chatting 

260
00:14:36,120 --> 00:14:38,360
about. 
And we've, we've noticed, I 

261
00:14:38,360 --> 00:14:40,880
think we've chucked in the 
director special here and there,

262
00:14:40,880 --> 00:14:44,200
they've done the odd sort of 
deal to wrap up tenements that 

263
00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:48,000
are contiguous with Karla Winder
and, and Matt Gibson here and 

264
00:14:48,000 --> 00:14:51,400
there, paid a million or two in,
in stock here and there. 

265
00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:55,320
But obviously this is of a much,
much larger magnitude. 

266
00:14:55,320 --> 00:14:57,600
And I thought it was kind of 
worthy of a discussion. 

267
00:14:58,240 --> 00:15:02,440
So to, to start with, it's not 
new for, for miners, for gold 

268
00:15:02,440 --> 00:15:06,560
miners to, to close out hedge 
books with a equity raise will 

269
00:15:06,560 --> 00:15:09,640
flash up on the screen here you 
can see Barrick, they, they did 

270
00:15:09,640 --> 00:15:12,440
a kind of well known famous, so 
maybe infamous is the right word

271
00:15:12,440 --> 00:15:17,840
for this one raise in 2009, they
raised $3 billion and 1.9 of 

272
00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:19,480
that went toward close net 
hedges. 

273
00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:25,080
So it's a, it's a bit of an old 
trick, but to relate it to 

274
00:15:25,560 --> 00:15:29,440
Capricorn and to talk about what
they've done, we'll go back to 

275
00:15:29,480 --> 00:15:32,520
August 2019 to start. 
And this is when they were 

276
00:15:32,640 --> 00:15:36,160
financing Kalawinda. 
I'll show a, a screenshot here 

277
00:15:36,160 --> 00:15:39,800
from December 2019. 
The hedges had already been in 

278
00:15:39,800 --> 00:15:42,640
place from from August, December
is when they kind of got the, 

279
00:15:42,680 --> 00:15:44,160
the debt over the line with 
Macquarie. 

280
00:15:44,160 --> 00:15:46,480
And as is customary, you've got 
to have those hedges in place. 

281
00:15:46,480 --> 00:15:51,080
So standard 200,000 oz for those
listening on audio is what they 

282
00:15:51,080 --> 00:15:54,360
put in place at the time at 2250
bucks. 

283
00:15:54,600 --> 00:15:56,680
Now obviously at the time that 
was a, that was a kind of decent

284
00:15:56,680 --> 00:15:59,680
price. 
So The thing is they didn't 

285
00:15:59,680 --> 00:16:02,920
deliver into these hedges as was
originally planned. 

286
00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:06,320
The operation got up and running
super smoothly as you'd expect 

287
00:16:06,320 --> 00:16:09,480
with the management team there. 
There was barely a a hiccup as 

288
00:16:09,480 --> 00:16:12,800
they coasted through to that 
sort of plus 100,000 oz per 

289
00:16:12,800 --> 00:16:15,800
annum run rate. 
I'll just just a quick Google 

290
00:16:15,800 --> 00:16:18,240
the price. 
Aussie Price Gold on 18th of 

291
00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:24,320
December 2019 was 18110 per oz. 
Yeah. 

292
00:16:24,320 --> 00:16:28,440
So they had locked those hedges 
in in kind of mid 2019. 

293
00:16:28,440 --> 00:16:30,400
So already they were looking 
quite good. 

294
00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:34,360
But as we kind of say and as you
noted in the in the opening 

295
00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:35,560
Matty, they didn't deliver into 
them. 

296
00:16:35,560 --> 00:16:40,800
So just a random example here 
from June 2022, you can see that

297
00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:44,320
they rolled forward 30,000 
ounces of hedges from the 

298
00:16:44,320 --> 00:16:48,680
second-half of 2022 calendar 
year to the first half of 2026. 

299
00:16:49,400 --> 00:16:53,440
Now those ones had that same 
delivery price 22150 Aussie. 

300
00:16:53,800 --> 00:16:57,000
So again, you can see on the 
same announcement kind of 

301
00:16:57,000 --> 00:16:59,680
interestingly that they they've 
done sort of small deals with 

302
00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:03,640
with stock, but they here and 
there kept rolling out those 

303
00:17:03,640 --> 00:17:07,160
hedges, kept pushing them back 
and selling gold into the spot 

304
00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:11,359
market. 
Now in June 2023, they did the 

305
00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:13,560
first of these blocks where they
closed out hedges. 

306
00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:17,960
So all up they've closed out a 
bit over 150,000 ounces in kind 

307
00:17:17,960 --> 00:17:19,960
of three blocks of roughly 
50,000. 

308
00:17:20,240 --> 00:17:23,800
The first one was in June 23, 
then in June 24 and then you've 

309
00:17:23,800 --> 00:17:27,720
got this one from the other day.
So in 2023, they did, it cost 

310
00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:33,200
them on the day $37 million. 
In 2024, they did it again. 

311
00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:37,720
That was closing out the hedges 
for the next roughly 18 sort of 

312
00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:40,560
months. 
That cost them $70 million on 

313
00:17:40,560 --> 00:17:43,080
the day. 
That was also we've buying a few

314
00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:46,880
puts to sort of manage that 
downside risk. 

315
00:17:47,560 --> 00:17:50,600
So the 70 million accounts for 
both, but the majority of that 

316
00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:54,040
is just closing out your hedges.
Both occasions are paid for that

317
00:17:54,040 --> 00:17:57,000
with cash, which is obviously 
not what they've done today. 

318
00:17:57,000 --> 00:18:02,520
So to to run everyone through 
the announcement from the most 

319
00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:04,920
recent one from just the other 
day, they've agreed with 

320
00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:08,800
Macquarie to close out the the 
remaining hedge book 55,000 oz 

321
00:18:09,280 --> 00:18:14,440
at Aussie 2300 so. 
Which is a bit less than half 

322
00:18:14,440 --> 00:18:17,720
the current Spot gold price. 
It's amazing, isn't it? 

323
00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:21,800
Yeah, it it sure is. 
Interestingly, they've purchased

324
00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:26,480
puts to only account for half of
the previously hedged oz. 

325
00:18:26,480 --> 00:18:30,000
So if you look back at the other
two times the purchase puts to 

326
00:18:30,000 --> 00:18:33,600
account for the total amount of 
the hedges they closed out. 

327
00:18:33,600 --> 00:18:35,120
So that's a kind of interesting 
little detail. 

328
00:18:35,120 --> 00:18:39,040
And those those puts are sort of
in 5000 oz blocks over the next 

329
00:18:39,040 --> 00:18:42,640
few quarters running out until 
kind of end of 26. 

330
00:18:43,040 --> 00:18:45,160
And they're for four and a half,
1000 bucks an ounce. 

331
00:18:46,520 --> 00:18:49,640
They are so a bit below where we
are today on that one. 

332
00:18:50,080 --> 00:18:52,360
Again, that's just the the right
to sell. 

333
00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:55,680
You don't have the obligation 
for those that are not so much 

334
00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:58,240
into the finance side of things,
that just manages your downside.

335
00:18:58,240 --> 00:19:00,760
If the gold price does fall 
below it, you can just sell at 

336
00:19:00,760 --> 00:19:03,120
that price. 
If it doesn't, you've paid a 

337
00:19:03,120 --> 00:19:05,200
small premium for the right to 
sell there. 

338
00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:07,640
And that's just that's money 
you've lost. 

339
00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:10,360
But you've got the upside of 
enjoying the gold price. 

340
00:19:10,360 --> 00:19:13,880
Why it's kind of higher. 
The transaction the other day 

341
00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:17,400
that cost him 147,000,000 bucks.
So that's the hedges, that's 

342
00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:19,440
buying the puts and the 
transaction costs. 

343
00:19:20,080 --> 00:19:22,640
And the vast majority of that is
for the hedges. 

344
00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:27,720
So 132 million is the back of 
the envelope number I calculated

345
00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:31,080
for that. 
And to fund this $140 million 

346
00:19:31,280 --> 00:19:34,800
capital raise essentially is 7 
bucks 90 and the remainder paid 

347
00:19:34,800 --> 00:19:36,800
in cash. 
And exactly like you said, 

348
00:19:36,800 --> 00:19:39,240
Maddie, just look at the chart 
here, you can see the volume. 

349
00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:42,240
They normally trade 1 to 2 
million shares a day and on the 

350
00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:45,360
19th of March 22 million shares 
go through. 

351
00:19:45,360 --> 00:19:48,200
So Macquarie's slaughtered them 
already, you'd imagine. 

352
00:19:48,360 --> 00:19:54,600
Yeah, yeah, that is definite. 
Yes, it, it, God, it looks, it 

353
00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:59,440
just looks like it's, it's been 
like just all planned out. 

354
00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:03,120
It's like they've obviously 
avoided rising capital at low, 

355
00:20:03,120 --> 00:20:05,240
low prices. 
Yes, the hedge book was there. 

356
00:20:05,240 --> 00:20:07,880
They've had to use cash, but 
they've just continually had 

357
00:20:07,880 --> 00:20:11,400
that. 
That that multiple on them like 

358
00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:14,880
the what would you say the good 
earnings per share and now their

359
00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:17,760
share price is that bloody high.
They just close it out with 

360
00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:19,320
minimal dilution. 
It's. 

361
00:20:20,880 --> 00:20:24,560
Yeah, they, they talk about 
this, they talk about this 

362
00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:29,280
strategy of closing out the 
hedges and they say that's led 

363
00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:32,680
to 36,000,000 bucks in revenue 
enhancements. 

364
00:20:32,680 --> 00:20:37,240
So that's, that's only from the 
point where you decide to close 

365
00:20:37,240 --> 00:20:40,600
them out and then you look 
forward and you see what you 

366
00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:43,200
would have had to sell it at 
versus what what you've actually

367
00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:45,560
kind of got. 
You're analysing where the gold 

368
00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:48,800
price went from there. 
It's not comparing it with what 

369
00:20:48,800 --> 00:20:52,800
would have happened had you just
delivered into those hedges 

370
00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:57,160
originally. 
And you know, you can, I mean 

371
00:20:57,160 --> 00:20:59,640
hindsight's 2020, but you can 
you make you can make an 

372
00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:03,080
argument that's $100 million 
plus decision that they kept 

373
00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:06,080
pushing the hedges down the 
road, but. 

374
00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:10,520
But did they? 
$5,000,000 a 100 million not in,

375
00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:12,040
not in cash. 
So yeah. 

376
00:21:12,200 --> 00:21:16,800
But did they did not delivering 
into them mean that they made 

377
00:21:16,800 --> 00:21:20,440
more cash, they had a better, a 
better multiple and their share 

378
00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:23,640
price got higher? 
And like, it's sort of might 

379
00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:27,040
have been, you know, part of the
journey to get to today. 

380
00:21:27,120 --> 00:21:31,200
There's 2 two sides really. 
Yeah, I mean, after the fact, 

381
00:21:31,200 --> 00:21:34,240
you, you can't, you can't say 
they've been in, they've been in

382
00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:38,160
great financial health. 
The markets traded them at A at 

383
00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:40,120
a significant premium to most of
the other names. 

384
00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:41,880
So it, it, it's super 
interesting. 

385
00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:44,800
And you, you kind of think about
the two decisions like closing 

386
00:21:44,800 --> 00:21:46,160
out the hedges and paying with 
script. 

387
00:21:46,680 --> 00:21:48,960
But they're two sides of the 
same coin, aren't they? 

388
00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:51,280
You can't think of them 
separately because they wouldn't

389
00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:54,560
choose to close out the hedges 
today if they weren't paying 

390
00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:56,200
with script. 
I mean, maybe they would. 

391
00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:59,400
I don't think they would. 
And you can, you can dice it any

392
00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:01,040
way you like, right? 
You can say on the one hand, 

393
00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:03,120
you're going to be able to 
participate in the rising gold 

394
00:22:03,120 --> 00:22:04,640
price, you're going to do 
better. 

395
00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:06,960
That has been the case the last 
two times they did it. 

396
00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:10,560
Or on the other side, you could 
say they're paying with script, 

397
00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:13,840
they're using their stock. 
They must think it's kind of 

398
00:22:13,920 --> 00:22:17,200
richly valued. 
And like here, here's where I've

399
00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:21,720
kind of come to it, come to it. 
So management teams like this, 

400
00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:25,880
they will use their paper when 
they are trading in the market 

401
00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:29,440
at the high end, you know, 
relative to the intrinsic value.

402
00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:32,120
And in the opposite scenario you
try and do a buy back or 

403
00:22:32,120 --> 00:22:35,600
something along that kind of 
wavelength and to tie in the 

404
00:22:35,600 --> 00:22:38,600
commodity price with it. 
We've all seen gold just go on 

405
00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:41,840
an absolute tear. 
It's gone nearly vertical in the

406
00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:45,680
in the past year or so. 
And commodities don't tend to do

407
00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:47,240
that for too long. 
And it's not to say the gold 

408
00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:51,520
price won't be higher in two or 
three years time, but CMM, they 

409
00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:53,800
have far outpaced what the gold 
price has done. 

410
00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:56,120
They've nearly doubled since mid
last year. 

411
00:22:56,120 --> 00:22:58,680
And this is a sort of big 
company and aside from the the 

412
00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:00,960
margin expansion they're going 
to get from that, there's no big

413
00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:03,200
changes at Karla window yet. 
They're going to do an 

414
00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:05,200
expansion. 
Obviously Mount Gibson, if 

415
00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:09,320
anything's been held up a little
bit in November, they already 

416
00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:12,480
did a capital raise $200 million
so that they would fund Mount 

417
00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:15,560
Gibson with new issued shares 
rather than with debt. 

418
00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:19,200
They could have debt funded it, 
but now they've got 350 million 

419
00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:21,600
plus bucks in cash and bullying,
they can do it that way. 

420
00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:25,040
And if you just look back to 
like June last year, they've got

421
00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:29,160
a a price to cash flow multiple 
of about 10 times, that's closer

422
00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:33,120
to 20 times today. 
And APAP NAV that's gone from 

423
00:23:33,120 --> 00:23:37,400
about .7 times to about one time
in that same period. 

424
00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:40,920
So their decision today just 
tells me a huge amount about 

425
00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:43,400
what the company thinks about 
their value. 

426
00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:46,440
And you know, that could be the 
the value of the the industry 

427
00:23:46,440 --> 00:23:50,280
more broadly and just how 
quickly it's come on in the past

428
00:23:50,280 --> 00:23:51,920
few months and. 
What's it? 

429
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:53,640
So? 
What's their market cap now, JD?

430
00:23:55,640 --> 00:24:00,800
God, I want to say 3.3. 
Wow. 

431
00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:01,920
Yeah. 
So it's this. 

432
00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:04,320
Is a bloody let me, let's just 
bloody check. 

433
00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:08,360
We'll check this live. 
Three 3.4 yeah, Aussie. 

434
00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:12,080
So, yeah, I mean we're talking 
about 4% dilution. 

435
00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:16,520
Yeah, yeah, and it's and and 
look at it, everyone's like 

436
00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:19,080
great decision now your full 
upside. 

437
00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:23,480
It's just that overhang gone and
you've done it bloody. 

438
00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:26,040
You're the best valued stock on 
the market. 

439
00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:30,320
So yeah, it'll as you said, they
might the gold keeps. 

440
00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:34,400
Could it could it be interpreted
another way? 

441
00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:37,920
Like if they're like, well, I 
suppose they could have used 

442
00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:40,200
cash or debt to do it. 
If they if they're bullish on 

443
00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:42,920
gold price and they they want 
the full value of it, you would 

444
00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:48,120
think you'd more be more 
inclined to use cash or to do 

445
00:24:48,120 --> 00:24:49,520
this transaction, wouldn't you 
think? 

446
00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:52,720
I think in simple terms, yeah. 
Because if the gold price just 

447
00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:55,960
runs and runs and runs, then 
your margin goes up. 

448
00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:58,960
If you tried at the same 
multiple, your stock is even 

449
00:24:58,960 --> 00:25:01,840
higher than where it is today. 
So I think that's the kind of 

450
00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:04,120
simple way to look at it. 
And it's like, look, it's one of

451
00:25:04,120 --> 00:25:06,720
those the there's not many of 
them. 

452
00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:10,080
Like I think rail had the same 
thing at Saracen, like Buddy 

453
00:25:11,720 --> 00:25:14,800
Bill was probably the same at 
Northern Star on the rise like, 

454
00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:16,440
and Capricorn's the same 
example. 

455
00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:19,920
Like it's you can you can point 
to OK, right. 

456
00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:22,120
Are they doing this because 
Carla Winder's going to get 

457
00:25:22,120 --> 00:25:23,880
deeper. 
There's going to be more strip 

458
00:25:24,280 --> 00:25:29,000
ratio, higher strip ratio. 
There's potential risk for, you 

459
00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:32,480
know, Mount Gibson delays if on 
permitting and if like you can 

460
00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:35,760
point to all them, but you're 
just these people. 

461
00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:39,320
They've become self fulfilling 
prophecies, these premium 

462
00:25:39,320 --> 00:25:40,800
management teams and these 
stocks. 

463
00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:43,040
So you can you can go, oh, is 
this the high? 

464
00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:45,560
And you start going against 
them, but people just keep 

465
00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:48,480
buying them and it just keeps 
fulfilling itself. 

466
00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:53,720
So that's why it is just near 
impossible to bet against these 

467
00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:55,600
companies once they've got that 
reputation. 

468
00:25:56,920 --> 00:25:58,880
Yeah, it's it's fascinating, 
right. 

469
00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:02,480
Like at at some point it's got 
to be hard to to live up to 

470
00:26:02,840 --> 00:26:04,320
right. 
They've they've done such a good

471
00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:06,000
job. 
You go back to to what when we 

472
00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:10,760
started the the chat 2019 and 
hardly, hardly put a foot wrong 

473
00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:13,280
really. 
Like you can everyone can make 

474
00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:15,400
their own view up on on the 
hedge book and delivering into 

475
00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:18,400
it, but it it really hasn't 
affected them in in a massive 

476
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:21,600
way. 
Like it's they just, they've 

477
00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:27,120
just kept on delivering and in, 
in an environment where gold is 

478
00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:31,440
up, like you said, Maddie from 
late 2019, what is it like 2 1/2

479
00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:33,280
times? 
It's it's pretty incredible. 

480
00:26:33,480 --> 00:26:36,560
Yeah, I like, I feel, I feel the
same pressure trying to be like,

481
00:26:36,560 --> 00:26:38,800
funny every day. 
Like it's just like the weight 

482
00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:40,720
of the audience on me. 
Like I know you feel. 

483
00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:42,920
Like. 
I know you feel Clarky. 

484
00:26:43,360 --> 00:26:44,920
You're going through the same. 
Swear on you mate. 

485
00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:47,560
Oh nice, just you can't have a 
down day. 

486
00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:50,880
And all this talk about hedging,
Maddie, does it remind? 

487
00:26:50,880 --> 00:26:53,120
You I'm not saying it. 
I'm not saying it. 

488
00:26:53,520 --> 00:26:55,680
No, I'm not linking it again, 
no. 

489
00:26:55,680 --> 00:27:02,080
Are you linking like this like 
gold like gold producers to CRE 

490
00:27:02,080 --> 00:27:04,920
insurance because they insure 
heaps of gold? 

491
00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:08,800
Maybe maybe that's it that of 
the of the IT was a layup for 

492
00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:12,640
the the Sean Rousseau hedging 
CRE insurance. 

493
00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:15,720
But I'm not saying it. 
I'm not saying it, but like. 

494
00:27:15,840 --> 00:27:17,560
We can talk about CRE 
regardless, hey? 

495
00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:22,200
Well, like just to think all the
freaking bloody world class gold

496
00:27:22,200 --> 00:27:26,400
mining operations around the 
world that they are the broker 

497
00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:30,720
for to ensure they are protected
and whether that's from bloody 

498
00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:34,320
anything we might you could have
hedge impact protection mate. 

499
00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:39,520
They are the absolute insurance 
broking experts for the global 

500
00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:43,400
mining industry. 
Gold's one of them, Carl Bloody 

501
00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:46,040
any other metal, like any energy
they've. 

502
00:27:46,120 --> 00:27:49,720
Got that new orange office as 
well in western NSW too. 

503
00:27:50,360 --> 00:27:52,640
It would have wonder if it's 
painted orange as well. 

504
00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:55,720
Just it's just like to welcome 
ourselves to the town. 

505
00:27:55,720 --> 00:27:57,520
We're going to paint our orange 
office orange. 

506
00:27:57,840 --> 00:28:00,560
Go say our insurance. 
Love your bloody. 

507
00:28:00,720 --> 00:28:02,240
Love your bloody, get yourself 
insured. 

508
00:28:03,280 --> 00:28:06,200
Love. 
It right, Jay, So you've gone a 

509
00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:09,200
bit deeper into, have you? 
Yeah. 

510
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:10,640
Oh, a little bit, yeah. 
Yeah, no. 

511
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:12,680
So all the all. 
The you're looking at me like 

512
00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:17,080
wrong part, Matthew. 
No, no, absolutely right part 

513
00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:19,400
no. 
So all the the chat with the the

514
00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:22,520
Capricorns news out the other 
day sort of got me a bit 

515
00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:27,760
inspired guys just to look at, 
well, what is the status of all 

516
00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:30,920
the other sort of Aussie gold 
producers, you know, hedge 

517
00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:34,160
books. 
So I went had a look through all

518
00:28:34,160 --> 00:28:37,840
the quarterlies out from last 
quarter 31st December from 

519
00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:42,240
pretty much any Aussie gold 
producer that you know, 100,000 

520
00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:46,440
oz plus production profile. 
So 13 companies all up and to my

521
00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:50,880
surprise not as many of them as 
a thought are hedged at the 

522
00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:54,920
moment or if they are, it's a 
pretty, it's pretty small 

523
00:28:54,920 --> 00:28:57,960
relative to their production 
profile over the next few years.

524
00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:00,680
And by the way, when I was, when
I'm talking about hedging here, 

525
00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:05,920
I mean companies with gold 
forwards sort of hedges, not 

526
00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:08,600
necessarily those with options 
hedging, which oh. 

527
00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:10,800
Not 0 cost collars and stuff, no
right. 

528
00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:13,680
Yeah, so I'll get my Ding Dings 
out the way as well. 

529
00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:15,760
There's Vault, Genesis, and 
Remilius. 

530
00:29:15,760 --> 00:29:16,720
I'll just go. 
Do you want me to? 

531
00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:18,520
Do you want me to go get lunch 
while you do that? 

532
00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:23,280
Go get yourself a barn mate. 
So who's who's hedged at the 

533
00:29:23,280 --> 00:29:25,840
minute? 
So there's I'll go for some sort

534
00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:27,840
of biggest hedge book to to 
smallest. 

535
00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:32,520
We've got Northern Star about 
1.7 million oz at an average 

536
00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:36,200
price of 3242. 
There's all Aussie dollar gold 

537
00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:38,000
prices as well. 
This is out till the middle of 

538
00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:43,040
2028, so on average the the 
hedging's about 1/4 of their 

539
00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:45,680
annual production over the next 
few years. 

540
00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:48,720
As as Stewie said in the OR 
studio, Simon said in the 

541
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:50,960
quarterly call when they asked 
about hedging, they're like, 

542
00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:54,560
look, hedging never works in a 
rising gold price environment. 

543
00:29:54,800 --> 00:29:57,200
It's pretty obvious it's. 
Fair comment. 

544
00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:00,800
And then Next up you've got 
vaults. 

545
00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:06,240
So they've got about 209,000 oz 
at an average price of 2841 out 

546
00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:08,680
till the end of next year. 
So they've got the second lowest

547
00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:13,440
average price of of the lot. 
It's worth around 30% of their 

548
00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:18,720
FY20 six production, but then it
drops off quite a lot, yeah. 

549
00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:22,040
And that'll come in, come in, 
that'll come in from the Red 5 

550
00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:23,280
debt. 
Yeah. 

551
00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:26,400
I think that's a yeah sort of 
legacy from that. 

552
00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:30,880
Then you've got Bellevue, 
they've got about 196,000 oz at 

553
00:30:31,040 --> 00:30:35,800
2756 out till the end of 27. 
So that's sort of the most 

554
00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:41,400
onerous of the lot as far as the
lowest average price out of this

555
00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:46,440
group, but also sort of as a 
percentage of their production 

556
00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:48,960
or sort of annual production. 
So on average, the hedging 

557
00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:53,200
represents, you know, roughly 
1/4 of annual production over 

558
00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:56,640
the next few years. 
Then you've got Remilius just 

559
00:30:56,640 --> 00:31:01,800
shy of 100,000 oz at 3183 out to
the end of next year, it's about

560
00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:06,160
30% of next year's production. 
FY20 6 then drops right off. 

561
00:31:06,320 --> 00:31:07,560
Yeah. 
And I think they said in the 

562
00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:10,720
Spartan deal, they haven't 
secured any more. 

563
00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:14,480
Sorry, part of the mount magnet 
expansion plan. 

564
00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:18,120
They haven't secured any more 
Ford contracts, so it looks like

565
00:31:18,120 --> 00:31:20,040
they're trying to unhedge 
themselves. 

566
00:31:20,160 --> 00:31:25,400
Unwind that and then you've 
lastly you've got Evolution and 

567
00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:28,960
and Genesis who have both got 
pretty, pretty small amounts 

568
00:31:29,360 --> 00:31:35,800
relative to their production 
profiles, 75,000 oz at 3230 for 

569
00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:40,640
Evolution and 13 1/2 thousand oz
at 3684 for Genesis. 

570
00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:45,120
OK, so who isn't hedged JC, 
Who's Oh no one WAFF because 

571
00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:47,560
they say the first line of 
everything unhedged gold 

572
00:31:47,560 --> 00:31:49,880
producer. 
They didn't form part of my 

573
00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:52,280
deal, but they did come to mind 
because they always make like to

574
00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:53,880
make it very clear that they're 
unhedged. 

575
00:31:54,720 --> 00:32:01,120
West Gold isn't hedged. 
Regis Gold Rd. as of recently. 

576
00:32:01,120 --> 00:32:05,440
Capricorn Catalyst Orabanda and 
Pantoro. 

577
00:32:05,440 --> 00:32:08,000
MMM. 
I think well, one year probably 

578
00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:11,080
that has a bit smaller. 
I think Perseus, they're a bit 

579
00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:11,840
they've. 
Got yeah. 

580
00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:15,080
So they I looked at just the 
Aussies, but yes, they do have, 

581
00:32:15,400 --> 00:32:16,880
they do have some hedging as 
well. 

582
00:32:17,080 --> 00:32:18,960
Yep. 
OK, what's the what's the 

583
00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:22,400
thoughts on it all Jay say? 
So I, I had a look at also the 

584
00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:27,880
average realised gold price that
all these 13 producers took away

585
00:32:27,880 --> 00:32:32,280
last quarter sort of averaged 
about 3900 bucks an ounce for 

586
00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:35,080
the December quarter. 
Now mind you the, the at the 

587
00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:38,720
start of the December quarter, 
gold was at 3800 bucks an ounce,

588
00:32:38,720 --> 00:32:44,200
finished at 4240. 
But between then and you know, 

589
00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:47,640
we haven't even quite finished 
the March quarter just yet. 

590
00:32:47,960 --> 00:32:52,440
And we're, you know, I did say 
we ticked over 4800 bucks. 

591
00:32:52,480 --> 00:32:57,040
An ounce well that and and it's 
so but it's funny looking at how

592
00:32:57,040 --> 00:33:00,120
the percentages are working now 
like you know, rose, you know, 

593
00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:05,800
in that 10 percent 3800 and 
4240, but you know ten 1010% on 

594
00:33:05,800 --> 00:33:11,560
4240 you're up near 4700. 
So like the the increases by 

595
00:33:11,560 --> 00:33:14,760
percentage now having such a 
bloody material impact on 

596
00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:17,400
absolutely profit like it's 
huge. 

597
00:33:17,880 --> 00:33:19,680
It is huge. 
And then, you know, in any 

598
00:33:19,680 --> 00:33:23,440
event, you know, we should 
certainly expect to say a a 

599
00:33:23,480 --> 00:33:26,840
decent jump in that average 
realised gold price for 

600
00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:29,760
producers this quarter, you 
know, even the ones that are 

601
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:32,320
hedged. 
So you know, obviously the ones 

602
00:33:32,320 --> 00:33:34,800
that are unhedged get, you know,
the full full whack of that, you

603
00:33:34,800 --> 00:33:37,720
know that full exposure to the 
gold price increasing. 

604
00:33:37,720 --> 00:33:41,160
But even the hedged ones sort of
get a bit of a double whammy 

605
00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:44,400
obviously to a lesser extent 
compared to the ones who are 

606
00:33:44,400 --> 00:33:47,080
unhedged. 
So I just had a look at like a 

607
00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:52,480
couple of the hedge books for 
example of some of these guys. 

608
00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:56,080
So you typically say that, you 
know, as they deliver into these

609
00:33:56,080 --> 00:34:00,960
hedge books, the gold price on 
the hedged answers is typically 

610
00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:03,600
like a little bit better, a 
little bit higher each quarter 

611
00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:06,760
or each half. 
Or you know, perhaps the number 

612
00:34:06,760 --> 00:34:10,440
of answers they've got to that a
hedge that they've got to 

613
00:34:10,440 --> 00:34:14,360
deliver into sort of coming down
progressively or perhaps a 

614
00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:17,120
combination of both. 
So you know, you're seeing them 

615
00:34:17,120 --> 00:34:22,040
get either a better price for 
those hedged answers and or you 

616
00:34:22,040 --> 00:34:25,960
know, more answers that are 
exposed to the spot price rather

617
00:34:25,960 --> 00:34:28,239
than the hedge price or you 
know, perhaps both. 

618
00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:30,880
So you know, look at even at 
Northern Stars when we'll flash 

619
00:34:30,880 --> 00:34:34,600
up an example, sort of the 
amount of hedged answers sort 

620
00:34:34,600 --> 00:34:37,920
of, you know, per annum or per 
that half sort of increases a 

621
00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:39,960
little bit and then it starts to
fall right off. 

622
00:34:40,159 --> 00:34:42,639
But you can see the gold price 
is sort of you know from around 

623
00:34:42,639 --> 00:34:47,920
3:30 increasing to 313233 
etcetera over that period of 

624
00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:51,120
time. 
Similarly for Volt, you know, 

625
00:34:51,120 --> 00:34:55,159
sort of you can say that the 
percentage number there on on 

626
00:34:55,159 --> 00:34:58,680
the screen sort of represents 
what their exposure is to, to 

627
00:34:58,680 --> 00:35:00,600
Spot gold. 
You can see that sort of comes 

628
00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:04,240
right down. 
But also like the the price of 

629
00:35:04,240 --> 00:35:07,040
those hedges sort of gets a 
little bit better each period as

630
00:35:07,040 --> 00:35:10,360
well. 
But separately, going back to 

631
00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:13,840
what we we sort of mentioned at 
the start is this sort of seems 

632
00:35:13,840 --> 00:35:17,080
to be a trend to companies and 
these are those that are sort of

633
00:35:17,680 --> 00:35:23,280
with traditional hedges in place
or unhedged entering into option

634
00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:26,120
hedging. 
So like these collars and put 

635
00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:29,240
options as a sort of form of you
know, like protection or 

636
00:35:29,240 --> 00:35:33,080
insurance as opposed to 
traditional hedging. 

637
00:35:33,080 --> 00:35:36,000
So like JD mentioned earlier, 
you know, you sort of can 

638
00:35:36,720 --> 00:35:39,880
maintain full exposure to higher
gold prices, but you're 

639
00:35:39,880 --> 00:35:43,560
minimising your downside on 
those sort of number of answers 

640
00:35:43,560 --> 00:35:45,560
that are subject to those 
options. 

641
00:35:45,560 --> 00:35:48,400
So, you know, a few companies 
that do have option hedging in 

642
00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:52,720
place include Bellevue, 
Capricorn, Genesis, Orbanda, 

643
00:35:52,720 --> 00:35:56,400
Pantora. 
So how do these actually work? 

644
00:35:56,400 --> 00:36:00,120
You know, you basically have the
and JD touched it all early. 

645
00:36:00,120 --> 00:36:04,160
You know you have the option or 
the right rather than the 

646
00:36:04,160 --> 00:36:07,440
obligation to exercise those 
options depending on the gold 

647
00:36:07,440 --> 00:36:10,200
price at the time and then you 
deliver those answers at that 

648
00:36:10,200 --> 00:36:13,040
price. 
So rather than locking yourself 

649
00:36:13,040 --> 00:36:16,280
in hedging this many answers at 
this price which you have to 

650
00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:18,960
deliver into irrespective of the
gold price at the time, 

651
00:36:19,320 --> 00:36:22,720
obviously it costs money to put 
those options in place, but 

652
00:36:22,720 --> 00:36:25,600
you've got that sort of 
flexibility and and downside 

653
00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:29,760
protection. 
I think it's like, it's like 

654
00:36:29,960 --> 00:36:32,880
health insurance. 
Yeah, they're paying a premium, 

655
00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:35,320
but they choose to go to the 
doctor whenever they want. 

656
00:36:36,080 --> 00:36:38,360
That is a very good analogy. 
Yeah, yeah. 

657
00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:40,560
Much simpler than I could have 
thought of, yeah. 

658
00:36:41,400 --> 00:36:44,480
But yeah, it is in, in, you 
know, that's a really, you know,

659
00:36:44,640 --> 00:36:46,160
simple and easy way to think 
about it. 

660
00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:48,720
Yeah. 
Don't worry if you don't worry 

661
00:36:48,760 --> 00:36:49,480
about BJ. 
So yeah. 

662
00:36:51,000 --> 00:36:53,400
If you want to be a bit cynical,
do you think some of these 

663
00:36:53,400 --> 00:36:55,600
companies are just saying, on 
the one hand they're unhedged, 

664
00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:58,400
but they're managing that 
downside on the other hand? 

665
00:36:59,160 --> 00:37:01,400
Yeah, I do. 
I do think about that because it

666
00:37:01,400 --> 00:37:06,240
is I guess it is sort of still a
form of hedging, but it's 

667
00:37:07,760 --> 00:37:11,320
because it's, it's more that 
right, not the obligation that 

668
00:37:11,320 --> 00:37:14,000
sort and not that sort of 
traditional sort of hedging 

669
00:37:14,040 --> 00:37:17,400
people typically have in their 
minds that sort of run around 

670
00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:20,560
with these, you know, UN 
unhedged sort of. 

671
00:37:21,240 --> 00:37:23,040
Yeah. 
And I, I, I'm, I'm, yeah, the 

672
00:37:23,080 --> 00:37:26,440
dollar fan of the, the dollar. 
Yeah, the dollar value, but that

673
00:37:26,440 --> 00:37:28,640
you pay for this premium 
compared to what you could be 

674
00:37:28,640 --> 00:37:31,520
out of the money on on your 
hedge book is well multi 

675
00:37:31,560 --> 00:37:33,960
magnitudes different, yeah. 
It's capped. 

676
00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:36,600
Yeah, Yeah. 
Yeah, no, that's right. 

677
00:37:36,600 --> 00:37:39,600
So I mean like the classic 
example, even when if if we use 

678
00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:41,720
today's 1. 
So with, with Capricorn, you 

679
00:37:41,720 --> 00:37:44,920
know, they've had these put 
options at four and a half, 

680
00:37:44,920 --> 00:37:48,520
$1000 an ounce. 
So that means, you know, if I'm,

681
00:37:48,640 --> 00:37:53,280
you know, today's gold price is 
4800 bucks an ounce roughly. 

682
00:37:54,640 --> 00:37:58,480
I'm not going to use the put 
option because of the the Spot 

683
00:37:58,480 --> 00:38:01,080
gold price is great. 
I'll make you know, let's roll 

684
00:38:01,080 --> 00:38:05,200
with that. 
But if suddenly gold was $4000 

685
00:38:05,200 --> 00:38:11,200
an ounce, well, I'd like the the
right to sell some of my gold at

686
00:38:11,200 --> 00:38:16,560
4 1/2 thousand oz four and a 
half, $1000 an ounce via my put 

687
00:38:16,560 --> 00:38:18,880
option and and exercising that 
option. 

688
00:38:18,880 --> 00:38:23,200
So just as as a as a worked 
example from from yesterday's 

689
00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:26,560
one. 
So you, you dug into Bellevue as

690
00:38:26,560 --> 00:38:30,320
well and they're at that kind of
phase where they had to Chuck it

691
00:38:30,320 --> 00:38:34,640
in while they got got the debt 
to finance the project build. 

692
00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:37,400
What did you kind of come away 
thinking from from Bellevue? 

693
00:38:37,720 --> 00:38:39,680
Oh, well, they like they're 
getting talk. 

694
00:38:39,680 --> 00:38:43,800
It's, it's the, the hot topic at
the moment is, is Bellevue 

695
00:38:43,800 --> 00:38:47,160
coming up to this half? 
And like as you said, the, the 

696
00:38:47,160 --> 00:38:52,160
amount of, you know, 35% of 
their production guidance if 

697
00:38:52,160 --> 00:38:54,800
they hit it is, is hedged 
AT28O2. 

698
00:38:54,800 --> 00:38:59,080
So like the, yeah, there's just 
a lot of a lot of chat about 

699
00:38:59,080 --> 00:39:03,560
going into this quarter and this
half and what's going to go on 

700
00:39:03,560 --> 00:39:05,720
beyond that. 
And you know, a lot of it is 

701
00:39:05,720 --> 00:39:08,200
probably a function of this, not
all of it. 

702
00:39:08,200 --> 00:39:10,960
But like the if they didn't have
this hedge book, for instance, 

703
00:39:10,960 --> 00:39:14,520
like they would just be in such 
a being different cash position,

704
00:39:14,680 --> 00:39:17,360
they'll be able to get out of 
the whole all a bit easier. 

705
00:39:17,360 --> 00:39:19,640
But that's the position they're 
in. 

706
00:39:19,640 --> 00:39:25,080
Like you look at their their 
back weighted guidance that they

707
00:39:25,080 --> 00:39:28,560
said for revise their guidance. 
They said it's, you know, going 

708
00:39:28,560 --> 00:39:31,480
to be a strong second-half. 
They've but it's even supposed 

709
00:39:31,480 --> 00:39:35,880
to be a strong back end quarter.
Like if they I think they're I 

710
00:39:35,880 --> 00:39:40,240
think their breakevens about low
30,000 oz this quarter and lot. 

711
00:39:40,240 --> 00:39:43,360
So if it's going to be another 
soft quarter, 30 odd, that means

712
00:39:43,360 --> 00:39:45,040
I'll bring up a rough chart 
here. 

713
00:39:45,040 --> 00:39:50,080
They need, you know, high, high 
50 odd 1000 ounces in that 

714
00:39:50,320 --> 00:39:52,720
quarter four to meet their 
revised guidance. 

715
00:39:52,720 --> 00:39:57,320
So it's and then on the back of 
that lot, what what happens from

716
00:39:57,320 --> 00:40:01,120
there is like right, are they if
they only just get it or they 

717
00:40:01,120 --> 00:40:04,000
miss it, like what is the market
going to be confident that they 

718
00:40:04,000 --> 00:40:09,120
can then get towards this 
250,000 oz growth profile at 1.6

719
00:40:09,120 --> 00:40:13,360
million tonne per annum or like,
you know, is that going to be 

720
00:40:13,360 --> 00:40:16,200
possibly wound back too because 
it was a bit too ambitious. 

721
00:40:16,200 --> 00:40:18,480
It's there's a lot going on, but
they're. 

722
00:40:18,920 --> 00:40:22,040
You you don't know which way 
they're going to go in terms of 

723
00:40:22,840 --> 00:40:27,040
are they going to look to 
acquire something to potentially

724
00:40:27,040 --> 00:40:29,840
help with tons of answers and 
take the pressure off that 

725
00:40:29,840 --> 00:40:32,600
single asset or people looking 
at them at the moment? 

726
00:40:32,600 --> 00:40:38,240
Like there's there's narratives 
and support for other argument. 

727
00:40:38,240 --> 00:40:43,360
As I've always said, like they 
I'll, I'll bring up the map of 

728
00:40:43,360 --> 00:40:45,600
where they are. 
Like this is sort of limited, 

729
00:40:46,160 --> 00:40:50,240
probably geographical options 
for them that will probably make

730
00:40:50,240 --> 00:40:51,640
sense. 
Like if they're going to have a 

731
00:40:52,000 --> 00:40:55,680
swing at something to maybe feed
their mill or like there's not 

732
00:40:55,680 --> 00:41:00,640
really apes in the area unless 
there's bloody gold rot on a 

733
00:41:00,840 --> 00:41:02,360
frigging cosmos or something 
like that. 

734
00:41:02,360 --> 00:41:05,640
But nothing, nothing near term 
like like Vivian's down the road

735
00:41:05,640 --> 00:41:08,040
like that's in gorilla now, but 
they got to drill that out and 

736
00:41:09,240 --> 00:41:12,400
like that's that's not something
that they could easily pick up 

737
00:41:12,400 --> 00:41:17,560
like if they had a big swing to 
trans like, you know, further 

738
00:41:17,560 --> 00:41:19,960
transform the company. 
Lot lot Thunder box is an 

739
00:41:19,960 --> 00:41:24,520
interesting one, which is 70 odd
K's way, 7080 K's way down the 

740
00:41:24,520 --> 00:41:25,880
road. 
Like that's northern stars 

741
00:41:26,240 --> 00:41:29,320
highest cost producing asset. 
It's got a six million ton mill 

742
00:41:29,840 --> 00:41:33,760
and it's like, you know, imagine
if but that that'll be a pretty 

743
00:41:33,760 --> 00:41:36,440
big bloody transaction for 
Bellevue to try and get that 

744
00:41:37,160 --> 00:41:40,120
into their portfolio, turn their
mill off and send all their dirt

745
00:41:40,120 --> 00:41:42,240
down to a six million ton Miller
Thunder box. 

746
00:41:43,440 --> 00:41:47,880
But it's right it could be the 
other way like but off I 

747
00:41:47,880 --> 00:41:50,960
wouldn't have met like you God, 
you never say never but you 

748
00:41:50,960 --> 00:41:53,920
wouldn't imagine Northern star 
would be looking for another 

749
00:41:53,920 --> 00:41:57,240
transaction in the midst of a 
transaction now with the Gray 

750
00:41:57,640 --> 00:42:00,280
but it like it look it could 
make sense if they come under 

751
00:42:00,280 --> 00:42:02,840
pressure and they picked him up 
and send all that dirt Thunder 

752
00:42:02,840 --> 00:42:08,320
box like Agnew Agnew's closer 
gold fields operation. 

753
00:42:09,280 --> 00:42:13,680
But we've seen how inactive 
they've been in any Australian M

754
00:42:13,680 --> 00:42:15,560
and I. 
So I wouldn't imagine that 

755
00:42:15,560 --> 00:42:20,440
unless they want to divest it 
and Bellevue picked that up, but

756
00:42:20,800 --> 00:42:22,680
it could go either way, who 
knows? 

757
00:42:24,160 --> 00:42:27,320
I yeah, I don't. 
It's going to be a fascinating 

758
00:42:27,320 --> 00:42:29,640
couple of quarters. 
Yeah, and I guess there's. 1. 

759
00:42:30,280 --> 00:42:33,600
The the next sort of couple of 
the sort of the important ones 

760
00:42:33,600 --> 00:42:36,880
to watch and and hopefully they 
can hit those revised targets. 

761
00:42:36,920 --> 00:42:39,480
Yeah, God, if they, they, they, 
they, they need, they need 

762
00:42:39,480 --> 00:42:42,360
someone else's dirt or another 
operation or something just to 

763
00:42:42,520 --> 00:42:46,640
take the focus off this single 
asset operation that's taken a 

764
00:42:46,640 --> 00:42:51,320
bit of effort to get up to the 
required runway that they run, 

765
00:42:51,320 --> 00:42:54,440
right, That they anticipated for
numerous. 

766
00:42:54,840 --> 00:42:58,320
I assume there's numerous 
factors all coinciding to to 

767
00:42:58,320 --> 00:43:01,640
that. 
So oh, it's just well, we'll, 

768
00:43:01,640 --> 00:43:05,960
we'll wait and see. 
Bloody around the grounds. 

769
00:43:06,320 --> 00:43:08,200
What's going on? 
Oh, I mean race yesterday, the 

770
00:43:08,200 --> 00:43:12,720
whole ride she's been she's 
paused for we don't know how 

771
00:43:12,720 --> 00:43:15,600
long. 
We don't know how long. 

772
00:43:16,000 --> 00:43:20,480
No, I I would imagine it, it 
can't be too long. 

773
00:43:20,520 --> 00:43:24,320
I mean, you know, you've got 
you've got work safe WA there. 

774
00:43:25,000 --> 00:43:28,480
This is the 6th truck that is 
that is flipped, which is 

775
00:43:28,480 --> 00:43:30,560
obviously pretty concerning and 
they would have looked at every 

776
00:43:30,560 --> 00:43:35,120
single one, but they spoke about
hauling on on the sort of side 

777
00:43:35,120 --> 00:43:37,640
Rd. there. 
They like you're not getting any

778
00:43:37,640 --> 00:43:41,080
serious tons on that at all. 
So. 

779
00:43:41,960 --> 00:43:44,960
Yeah, I think that it was just 
the back trailers that flipped. 

780
00:43:44,960 --> 00:43:48,520
I I think I saw not the actual 
cabin it was the trailers that 

781
00:43:48,840 --> 00:43:50,160
went. 
Yeah, that's right. 

782
00:43:50,160 --> 00:43:53,120
Yeah. 
Yeah, but it just like it 

783
00:43:53,120 --> 00:43:57,320
obviously looks because the 
whole thing with the the volume 

784
00:43:57,440 --> 00:44:01,280
is, you know, trucks that need 
to be gone both ways flat out. 

785
00:44:01,280 --> 00:44:04,080
And there's the whether the the 
ultimate goal. 

786
00:44:04,080 --> 00:44:06,680
I think we were talking about it
before JD about like getting to 

787
00:44:06,680 --> 00:44:08,560
that autonomous stage where you 
can. 

788
00:44:08,960 --> 00:44:12,080
Everything's a lot more precise,
but that's still far away and 

789
00:44:12,080 --> 00:44:16,600
like these. 
Yeah, it's like the and you and 

790
00:44:16,600 --> 00:44:20,960
you can't like put like passing 
bays in and have them just go on

791
00:44:20,960 --> 00:44:23,200
one way to keep give a bit more 
room because I think you were 

792
00:44:23,200 --> 00:44:26,040
saying it takes so long to 
bloody speed and back up because

793
00:44:26,040 --> 00:44:29,680
of the payload on it. 
Yeah, that just it, it just does

794
00:44:29,680 --> 00:44:32,400
not work when you need to have 
trucks running, you know 

795
00:44:32,400 --> 00:44:34,600
crossing every less than 5 
minutes. 

796
00:44:35,040 --> 00:44:37,840
And these are big, big trucks. 
They don't they don't slow down 

797
00:44:37,840 --> 00:44:40,960
and speed up quickly by any 
stretch of the imagination. 

798
00:44:41,320 --> 00:44:44,080
Like you said, Maddie's super 
tight Rd. as well. 

799
00:44:44,080 --> 00:44:46,920
So autonomous could be easier 
for that. 

800
00:44:46,920 --> 00:44:51,360
But I mean, Ellison said that's 
late 26. 

801
00:44:51,360 --> 00:44:55,360
That's if things go well. 
They need, they need every 

802
00:44:55,360 --> 00:44:56,920
single dollar they can get in 
the door now. 

803
00:44:56,920 --> 00:45:00,160
And I think this what's happened
yesterday just highlights how 

804
00:45:00,160 --> 00:45:01,960
how kind of binary the outcome 
is here. 

805
00:45:02,480 --> 00:45:05,200
This whole Rd. needs to work. 
Otherwise the, the company's in 

806
00:45:05,640 --> 00:45:09,200
in serious trouble as we've sort
of touched on in the past. 

807
00:45:09,200 --> 00:45:13,320
And I don't think things like 
autonomous vehicles are going to

808
00:45:13,640 --> 00:45:17,640
bridge that gap in the in the 
meantime, you know, the, the 

809
00:45:17,640 --> 00:45:20,920
road needs to work first and 
then maybe they can do 

810
00:45:20,920 --> 00:45:24,760
autonomous vehicles down the 
road, you know, in 27. 

811
00:45:25,200 --> 00:45:28,120
But whether the road works or 
not is something we're going to 

812
00:45:28,120 --> 00:45:30,840
find out much before that. 
No, it's, it's getting so much. 

813
00:45:30,840 --> 00:45:33,320
I think you got the the big 
funds. 

814
00:45:34,040 --> 00:45:37,320
Yeah, there's a lot of articles 
about the, you know, the long 

815
00:45:37,440 --> 00:45:40,200
opportunity. 
I think it was Angus Aiken was 

816
00:45:40,200 --> 00:45:42,360
in there. 
So like in the papers and 

817
00:45:42,360 --> 00:45:44,560
everything. 
So they're like there's coming 

818
00:45:44,560 --> 00:45:47,600
from both sides as it's a 
leverage play at the moment, to 

819
00:45:47,600 --> 00:45:49,400
be honest. 
Like it's actually rebounded to 

820
00:45:49,480 --> 00:45:51,800
where it was before, before this
news. 

821
00:45:51,800 --> 00:45:55,360
But there's obviously a lot of 
big wigs that aren't betting 

822
00:45:55,360 --> 00:46:00,720
against them either during these
these times, the depressed times

823
00:46:00,720 --> 00:46:02,720
of the share price. 
So it's up. 

824
00:46:02,760 --> 00:46:06,400
So that's maybe one to follow. 
The If the road works and iron 

825
00:46:06,400 --> 00:46:09,080
ore ticks up, this thing will 
fly. 

826
00:46:09,240 --> 00:46:12,200
And yeah, I don't think we need 
to outline what the downside 

827
00:46:12,200 --> 00:46:14,600
case is again. 
Yeah, very much still. 

828
00:46:14,800 --> 00:46:16,680
A Ding Ding on that one this 
way. 

829
00:46:16,760 --> 00:46:20,440
Oh God, you Josie tight buddy. 
Catalysts. 

830
00:46:20,440 --> 00:46:22,920
They've getting rid of Henty. 
Yeah. 

831
00:46:22,920 --> 00:46:25,960
It looks like. 
Kaiser, Kaiser Rook. 

832
00:46:25,960 --> 00:46:30,560
Yeah, they got they got the what
is it the I-1 mine? 

833
00:46:30,680 --> 00:46:33,040
Yeah, I one mine in Victoria one
of. 

834
00:46:33,040 --> 00:46:35,880
The I was in Melbourne, yeah. 
Yeah, all, all old school deep 

835
00:46:35,880 --> 00:46:39,760
as anything air leg and show. 
So that's that's a big, big 

836
00:46:39,760 --> 00:46:43,800
change for Kaiser, obviously. 
But I like first first thing 

837
00:46:43,800 --> 00:46:46,040
rating it. 
I think it's, I think what is 

838
00:46:46,040 --> 00:46:47,960
it? 
15 Miller shares, 15 Miller Cash

839
00:46:47,960 --> 00:46:51,000
roundabouts. 
Yeah, 30 bucks for for Catalyst 

840
00:46:51,000 --> 00:46:52,920
and I think Kaiser were doing a 
15. 

841
00:46:53,160 --> 00:46:55,560
No, sorry, a $25 million raise. 
Yeah. 

842
00:46:55,560 --> 00:46:59,840
And I've commented on it before 
like whether just like Henty 

843
00:46:59,840 --> 00:47:02,600
wasn't like Platonics there, 
that's their flagship, that's 

844
00:47:02,600 --> 00:47:05,120
where all the focus is. 
But having that smaller 

845
00:47:05,120 --> 00:47:08,520
operation, yes, it probably 
producing some bit of cash flow.

846
00:47:08,520 --> 00:47:11,480
But just having the the 
management and time required to 

847
00:47:11,480 --> 00:47:15,160
go run that operation in a 
separate state and put focus on 

848
00:47:15,160 --> 00:47:18,520
that when you can potentially 
now not have to worry about it 

849
00:47:18,520 --> 00:47:20,920
at all. 
All the focus is on Platonic. 

850
00:47:20,920 --> 00:47:25,480
You would think like you got 
less, less boots on ground that 

851
00:47:25,480 --> 00:47:28,160
you're paying for, like you 
probably optimise the cost of 

852
00:47:28,160 --> 00:47:30,120
the business a bit better. 
You're not flying over there to 

853
00:47:30,120 --> 00:47:33,480
bloody look at it and where you 
could be spending time to figure

854
00:47:33,480 --> 00:47:35,800
out how do we get the most 
answers and lower the cost at 

855
00:47:35,800 --> 00:47:37,680
Platonic so. 
Great decision. 

856
00:47:37,680 --> 00:47:40,280
Hey, yeah, great. 
Decision, I think that's that's 

857
00:47:40,560 --> 00:47:44,640
the whole management time and 
focus thing is, is it's not 

858
00:47:44,640 --> 00:47:47,160
something that you can sort of 
easily quantify, but I think 

859
00:47:47,160 --> 00:47:50,960
it's so underrated in, you know,
deals like this, right? 

860
00:47:50,960 --> 00:47:52,360
MMM. 
I don't think. 

861
00:47:52,360 --> 00:47:54,840
I think it's probably probably 
had the decision a while ago. 

862
00:47:54,840 --> 00:47:56,720
It's just finding who was gonna 
buy it. 

863
00:47:58,000 --> 00:48:00,080
Yeah, yeah, 30 bucks is a good 
result, I thought. 

864
00:48:00,200 --> 00:48:02,320
Yeah mate gold price, how good 
is it? 

865
00:48:02,840 --> 00:48:05,320
What else? 
Oh Jesus, there's bloody gossip 

866
00:48:05,320 --> 00:48:08,400
going around like mate, what 
have you got after BMO? 

867
00:48:09,160 --> 00:48:13,680
They reckon BMO lot the talk of 
like the bullishness about 

868
00:48:13,760 --> 00:48:18,600
potential M and I was very hot 
and over there. 

869
00:48:18,600 --> 00:48:23,160
I thought around all the bomos 
invite only waiting for mine. 

870
00:48:23,720 --> 00:48:27,200
Gold M and A yeah, Gold M&A, to 
be clear. 

871
00:48:27,200 --> 00:48:30,320
Gold and copper, yeah, bloody 
more in there. 

872
00:48:30,320 --> 00:48:33,440
So. 
And there was Agnica Eagle 

873
00:48:33,440 --> 00:48:35,560
people spotted in Kalgoorlie 
last week. 

874
00:48:35,760 --> 00:48:39,760
And there's a, there's a bloody 
word on the decline that, you 

875
00:48:39,760 --> 00:48:46,680
know, potentially there's a big 
bank on behalf of Agnico looking

876
00:48:46,680 --> 00:48:48,680
at Northern Star like things 
like that. 

877
00:48:48,920 --> 00:48:51,080
Well, I'm sure they've had a 
bloody look before. 

878
00:48:52,040 --> 00:48:54,960
So I like Agnic. 
Yeah, be there was, we've always

879
00:48:54,960 --> 00:48:57,240
talked about Agnico. 
Are they going to do a big deal 

880
00:48:57,240 --> 00:49:01,920
over here and get a, get a 
foothold in Australia outside of

881
00:49:01,920 --> 00:49:05,320
what they've got at Fosterville,
which has had a tie die already.

882
00:49:05,320 --> 00:49:10,320
So right. 
I reckon with the whole the grey

883
00:49:10,880 --> 00:49:14,960
Northern Star and Gold Rd. the 
sort of the passenger on that, 

884
00:49:14,960 --> 00:49:19,600
it just makes Gold Rd. look 
interesting in terms of if 

885
00:49:19,600 --> 00:49:25,520
someone could interrupt that 
deal by taking Gold Road and if 

886
00:49:25,520 --> 00:49:28,800
they wanted exposure to Northern
Star, that gives them a 4% on 

887
00:49:28,800 --> 00:49:31,080
the end of it after that merger 
goes through. 

888
00:49:31,080 --> 00:49:35,160
So and then but then you hear 
bloody potentially Gold Road and

889
00:49:35,680 --> 00:49:39,720
Regis might be timing up to put 
a bid in for Ravenswood as AJV. 

890
00:49:39,720 --> 00:49:42,040
That was another one bloody 
going around. 

891
00:49:42,320 --> 00:49:46,760
Oh mate, go Perth so. 
Well, just just on the Agnico 

892
00:49:46,760 --> 00:49:49,480
one mate, really interesting to 
look at the performance of 

893
00:49:49,480 --> 00:49:53,280
Agnico versus the other massive,
massive gold miners. 

894
00:49:53,280 --> 00:49:56,640
So Newmont and Barrick Agnico 
have way outperformed because 

895
00:49:56,640 --> 00:50:00,040
they've delivered the cash flow.
So they've they've more than 

896
00:50:00,040 --> 00:50:04,440
doubled since beginning 24 and 
you know Barrick and Newmont are

897
00:50:04,520 --> 00:50:08,200
nowhere near that kind of level.
So that's puts them in a very 

898
00:50:08,200 --> 00:50:13,280
strong position as in terms of 
market cap, second biggest going

899
00:50:13,280 --> 00:50:15,120
now. 
God, Can you imagine if that if 

900
00:50:15,120 --> 00:50:18,000
that happened, the shit the the 
bankers would be licking their 

901
00:50:18,000 --> 00:50:21,280
lips this the assets that were 
coming out the arse end of that 

902
00:50:21,680 --> 00:50:26,200
in Australia, Because I'm not 
sure what Agni goes. 

903
00:50:26,600 --> 00:50:31,120
If they just look at like, you 
know, the big 2027 million tonne

904
00:50:31,120 --> 00:50:35,440
operation at the Super pit and 
then you know, I pretend I don't

905
00:50:35,440 --> 00:50:39,120
know how they look at Hemi like 
the big large scale long life 

906
00:50:39,840 --> 00:50:42,960
operations and the other stuff 
that's a bit fickly and needs a 

907
00:50:42,960 --> 00:50:45,760
bit bit more capital put into it
to keep it going. 

908
00:50:45,760 --> 00:50:48,960
Like whether all that'll come 
out the arse end, If yeah, who 

909
00:50:48,960 --> 00:50:51,480
knows, who knows, I don't. 
You put it best mate. 

910
00:50:51,480 --> 00:50:52,840
The bankers will be licking 
aliens. 

911
00:50:53,240 --> 00:50:57,880
Ah God yes, how do I don't? 
Know what the American version 

912
00:50:57,880 --> 00:51:01,080
of 6011 is, but I'm sure they're
having a great time. 

913
00:51:01,400 --> 00:51:02,200
What would it be? 
Yeah. 

914
00:51:02,240 --> 00:51:04,440
What is the Cotteslaw equivalent
in America? 

915
00:51:04,440 --> 00:51:06,680
Probably the Hamptons. 
The Hamptons? 

916
00:51:06,680 --> 00:51:09,120
About about 9210. 
The Hamptons. 

917
00:51:10,840 --> 00:51:13,040
Oh, very good. 
You heard any Goths? 

918
00:51:15,640 --> 00:51:18,880
Oh, not, not to your level mate.
And I think Agnico is Canadian 

919
00:51:18,880 --> 00:51:23,200
by the way. 
So if that changes that, I'm not

920
00:51:23,200 --> 00:51:26,800
sure where the the 6011 is in 
Toronto, but I'm sure the team 

921
00:51:26,800 --> 00:51:30,440
is from there. 
Oh no, no, the 60 bankers 6011 

922
00:51:30,600 --> 00:51:32,760
like where the the deal with the
deal makers. 

923
00:51:33,800 --> 00:51:36,080
Geez, if you're a Canadian 
banker, you'd be you'd be trying

924
00:51:36,080 --> 00:51:38,960
to get your sharp overs in 
before the the New York bankers 

925
00:51:38,960 --> 00:51:41,280
do, wouldn't? 
You Oh, come on, RBC, pull your 

926
00:51:41,280 --> 00:51:42,400
finger out. 
Yeah. 

927
00:51:44,240 --> 00:51:47,960
Shout out Benny Nelson. 
Bloody right. 

928
00:51:48,760 --> 00:51:50,160
OK, thanks. 
All the bloody partners. 

929
00:51:50,160 --> 00:51:52,400
God, we've got bloody deals 
flying everywhere. 

930
00:51:52,400 --> 00:51:55,800
Underground operators 100 bucks 
off blinking the shanags, the G 

931
00:51:55,800 --> 00:51:59,320
RX conference bloody 190 bucks 
off that. 

932
00:51:59,520 --> 00:52:02,880
Like get your tickets to gather 
round in Adelaide Just going 

933
00:52:03,360 --> 00:52:07,280
just going do business 
development and you probably see

934
00:52:07,280 --> 00:52:09,560
some of these mobs, some of 
those as well. 

935
00:52:09,560 --> 00:52:12,680
Mineral mining services, ground 
at CMB ground sport CR 

936
00:52:12,680 --> 00:52:17,080
insurance, Cadrel WA water 
balls, sweet Quattro project 

937
00:52:17,080 --> 00:52:19,320
engineer and they're definitely 
at underground operators. 

938
00:52:19,320 --> 00:52:23,280
So sweet cross boundary energy. 
What are you who to? 

939
00:52:23,720 --> 00:52:24,520
Wrote Peter. 
Wrote Guys. 

940
00:52:24,960 --> 00:52:27,600
Information contained in this 
episode of Money of Mine is of 

941
00:52:27,600 --> 00:52:29,640
general nature only and does not
take into account the 

942
00:52:29,640 --> 00:52:33,240
objectives, financial situation 
or needs of any particular 

943
00:52:33,240 --> 00:52:35,320
person. 
Before making any investment 

944
00:52:35,320 --> 00:52:38,360
decision, you should consult 
with your financial advisor and 

945
00:52:38,360 --> 00:52:41,520
consider how appropriate the 
advice is to your objectives, 

946
00:52:41,720 --> 00:52:43,680
financial situation and needs.