1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:03,600 Right over buddy waters bargains going out the door GC there's a 2 00:00:03,880 --> 00:00:07,800 there is more conferences. The global resources innovation 3 00:00:07,800 --> 00:00:15,080 expert GRX Brisbane May 20th to 22nd at the convention centre 4 00:00:15,080 --> 00:00:19,520 hosted by Osman and Oz IMM Right and talk about bargains. 5 00:00:19,520 --> 00:00:26,040 We're giving away EJC 190 bucks off your rego if you're an Osman 6 00:00:26,040 --> 00:00:30,360 or Oz IMM member code MOM. And if I'm not a member? 7 00:00:30,400 --> 00:00:34,120 Well mate, it's not a it's not as good, but it's still bloody 8 00:00:34,120 --> 00:00:37,120 good. It's 160 bucks off how good the 9 00:00:37,160 --> 00:00:42,480 code MOMNM as in non member? And what's happening at GRX? 10 00:00:42,480 --> 00:00:46,160 Mate, I tell you what, 150 exhibitors, they're cutting edge 11 00:00:46,160 --> 00:00:50,200 of mining innovation, tech from the everything that is 12 00:00:50,200 --> 00:00:52,520 revolutionised in the resources sector. 13 00:00:52,760 --> 00:00:55,800 How good is get? Along get just save yourself 14 00:00:55,800 --> 00:00:57,960 money ticket links are in the show notes. 15 00:00:57,960 --> 00:01:01,280 And Speaking of other things that are just awesome, Trader 16 00:01:01,280 --> 00:01:02,640 Ferg. Absolutely. 17 00:01:02,920 --> 00:01:06,680 What is that? Mate check out his sub stack if 18 00:01:06,680 --> 00:01:09,840 you're not there already. He is the counter cyclical king 19 00:01:10,080 --> 00:01:11,920 you'd say. Absolutely. 20 00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:15,600 Mate, so if we've had him on before, he's a well known figure 21 00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:18,240 in the investment community. And mate, we talked. 22 00:01:18,720 --> 00:01:21,240 What have we opted? Would you guys get him to write? 23 00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:24,400 Them down because there was so much, so much, so much, buddy. 24 00:01:24,400 --> 00:01:30,280 We talked inflation, inflation, China, gold, PGM's loves, loves 25 00:01:30,280 --> 00:01:32,280 his rhodium loves. Rhodium. 26 00:01:32,280 --> 00:01:34,760 I don't even know what that is, but I'm excited to learn about 27 00:01:34,760 --> 00:01:37,000 it. If you if you talk to Ferg you 28 00:01:37,000 --> 00:01:42,520 should love it mate. Bloody cobalt, uranium, offshore 29 00:01:42,520 --> 00:01:45,120 oil mate. We covered a he. 30 00:01:45,120 --> 00:01:48,280 Covered a lot of ground. And it's I love hearing his his 31 00:01:48,280 --> 00:01:51,400 views, the way he thinks and the way he punts his money. 32 00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:53,440 Love it. So right, let's get into it. 33 00:01:53,520 --> 00:01:56,000 Let's RIP in. Right on Muddy Mudders. 34 00:01:56,000 --> 00:01:59,200 We've got on the man I want to be one day. 35 00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:03,640 Trader Ferg mate, I'm still in envy of your life, big fella. 36 00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:07,080 Thanks. Yeah, no, great to be back on 37 00:02:07,080 --> 00:02:10,400 Boys, Boys. I love the channel, honestly. 38 00:02:10,400 --> 00:02:11,920 You, you, you tackle the questions. 39 00:02:11,920 --> 00:02:15,720 I'm honestly wondering. Some days I like just yeah, see, 40 00:02:15,720 --> 00:02:20,240 see some news and then you the video pops up a a day later. 41 00:02:20,240 --> 00:02:21,840 I'm like, that's exactly what I was wondering. 42 00:02:24,360 --> 00:02:26,760 Very good mate. Well, we the the theme of this 43 00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:30,440 is always what is the most hated and what's a good entry point 44 00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:32,400 that oh, Trader Ferg's looking at. 45 00:02:32,400 --> 00:02:36,680 So, boys, take it away. Yeah, I think we can give you a 46 00:02:36,680 --> 00:02:40,640 bit of mutual admiration here because we we love your sort of 47 00:02:40,640 --> 00:02:42,280 style. You're writing as well, Ferg, 48 00:02:42,280 --> 00:02:45,720 and your ultra contrarian kind of nature. 49 00:02:45,720 --> 00:02:49,560 And I thought it'd be cool to, to start this convo reflecting a 50 00:02:49,560 --> 00:02:52,720 bit because you wrote this wicked piece called Moats and 51 00:02:52,720 --> 00:02:55,000 Cannibals. I'd, I'd encourage anyone who 52 00:02:55,000 --> 00:02:58,280 hasn't read that one to, to go and have a, have a look just to 53 00:02:58,280 --> 00:03:01,680 get a feel for your writing. So that was about a year ago or 54 00:03:01,680 --> 00:03:03,600 so. And there's a lot of topics that 55 00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:08,320 you touched on there from inflation to human behavior and 56 00:03:08,320 --> 00:03:11,880 how you view markets that I think are quite interesting and 57 00:03:11,880 --> 00:03:15,360 worth kind of reflecting on a year or so later. 58 00:03:15,360 --> 00:03:17,680 And I want to sort of frame it with one of these quotes that I 59 00:03:17,680 --> 00:03:20,760 just pulled out that you wrote. Embracing the cyclical nature of 60 00:03:20,760 --> 00:03:25,200 markets is the only way I know of how to make outsized returns. 61 00:03:25,680 --> 00:03:28,800 And I want to kind of hear your thoughts bearing that in mind on 62 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:33,520 where we are in the cycle of the, the commodities or the 63 00:03:33,520 --> 00:03:35,760 various markets you're you're most pumped by mate? 64 00:03:37,160 --> 00:03:40,280 Yes, certainly. Yes, I, I like that piece 65 00:03:40,280 --> 00:03:43,320 because that was kind of my overall framework for how I'm 66 00:03:43,320 --> 00:03:45,720 trying to position for the next decade at least. 67 00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:50,160 And like, it's kind of simple when you really break it down 68 00:03:50,160 --> 00:03:54,440 that all the markets are a sort of mess human behaviour and we 69 00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:58,920 just always spending between like fear and greed in certain 70 00:03:58,920 --> 00:04:02,040 sectors and greed. We just are justifying price 71 00:04:02,040 --> 00:04:06,480 action and over projecting. And I think you got that with 72 00:04:06,680 --> 00:04:08,600 AI. And then there's the other side, 73 00:04:08,600 --> 00:04:12,320 which is the, the fear. And it's just nothing's pissed, 74 00:04:12,600 --> 00:04:15,760 like too pessimistic. And this is where I like to hang 75 00:04:15,760 --> 00:04:20,920 out, which is like, just how bad can it get that you're like, you 76 00:04:20,920 --> 00:04:24,640 just you don't have to be that right to see a great return. 77 00:04:25,360 --> 00:04:29,400 And like some of the classic examples are just stuff going 78 00:04:29,400 --> 00:04:31,520 bankrupt. I love for like the like you can 79 00:04:31,520 --> 00:04:35,240 look out for the phrases like terminal decline, stranded 80 00:04:35,240 --> 00:04:39,360 assets, like just multiple bankruptcies. 81 00:04:39,360 --> 00:04:41,480 I own a few companies that have gone bankrupt twice. 82 00:04:42,000 --> 00:04:47,920 And yeah, once you kind of understand cyclicality, you can 83 00:04:47,920 --> 00:04:49,960 see like, sure, not everything's cyclical. 84 00:04:49,960 --> 00:04:52,080 Like you'll have a hard time if you're waiting for like fax 85 00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:53,400 machines to come back or something. 86 00:04:53,400 --> 00:04:59,640 But if you pegging yourself to a, a trend that you think is 87 00:04:59,640 --> 00:05:03,560 going to hold up for long term, like energy demand, then it's 88 00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:09,560 all just a, it's all just an opportunity to to have patience 89 00:05:09,560 --> 00:05:11,920 and set yourself up for great returns. 90 00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:15,880 If you can stomach some volatility and keep your eyes on 91 00:05:16,040 --> 00:05:18,360 like the long term fundamental outlook. 92 00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:23,240 And that, that piece was really just observing that I think 93 00:05:23,240 --> 00:05:27,720 we're coming out of a, a period of sort of loose money, low 94 00:05:27,720 --> 00:05:33,440 inflation and everything that's worked in that period is going 95 00:05:33,440 --> 00:05:36,520 to stop working. And what I see coming, which 96 00:05:36,520 --> 00:05:41,280 will be tighter money, it'll be higher structural inflation and 97 00:05:42,000 --> 00:05:46,240 there'll be a lot of a lot of resource constraints just 98 00:05:46,240 --> 00:05:49,000 because we've underspent. We've put just been pouring 99 00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:52,880 money into the likes of take and especially the Mag 7. 100 00:05:53,360 --> 00:05:58,120 And if I I point I was trying to make in that piece was if you 101 00:05:59,760 --> 00:06:02,520 the markets work on narratives like a big narrative, then was 102 00:06:02,520 --> 00:06:05,640 like the power of say, like network effects where everyone 103 00:06:05,640 --> 00:06:09,520 just there's no evaluation too much to justify the power of a 104 00:06:09,520 --> 00:06:12,240 network effect. All that piece was really 105 00:06:12,240 --> 00:06:17,160 getting at the fact that I think there's going to be a lot of 106 00:06:17,400 --> 00:06:23,440 sectors where you have, you've had so much capital put in, so 107 00:06:23,440 --> 00:06:26,560 much written down on the assumption it was not going to 108 00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:29,200 be needed. Like the offshore rigs, whether 109 00:06:29,200 --> 00:06:33,880 it's even like Fermal coal with both probably the prime examples 110 00:06:34,360 --> 00:06:39,480 that they're just going to have a huge Moat moving forward and 111 00:06:39,520 --> 00:06:42,520 they're going to have outsized returns that super hard to 112 00:06:42,520 --> 00:06:46,000 compete with, like a super dual ship to replace it. 113 00:06:46,000 --> 00:06:48,960 You need to start, you need day rates higher and then you need 114 00:06:50,080 --> 00:06:53,760 the ship, yeah, capacity. And then you need to put up 40% 115 00:06:53,760 --> 00:06:55,800 and then you need to wait five years for it to come on. 116 00:06:55,800 --> 00:06:59,240 And then you've got to compete with with companies that are 117 00:06:59,280 --> 00:07:02,160 holding all these assets that with no doubt against them. 118 00:07:02,280 --> 00:07:07,960 So and if during this period inflation's a lot higher, it 119 00:07:07,960 --> 00:07:11,240 just just makes it even harder to compete with that. 120 00:07:11,360 --> 00:07:16,560 And so that's the idea of the Moat, the ideas of the cannibal 121 00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:19,920 side of things is these companies are well aware that 122 00:07:19,920 --> 00:07:23,240 they have the smoke and they can start buying back their own 123 00:07:23,600 --> 00:07:26,720 stock. And so you can have these 124 00:07:26,720 --> 00:07:29,480 companies that could really corner their float during this 125 00:07:29,480 --> 00:07:32,680 period with a Moat and they could have substantial 126 00:07:32,760 --> 00:07:35,240 outperformance. And just on that back, they 127 00:07:35,240 --> 00:07:37,920 don't even need to be have their mould balls re rated by the 128 00:07:37,920 --> 00:07:39,440 market. But obviously once the 129 00:07:39,440 --> 00:07:41,240 performance comes to market, we'll probably start taking 130 00:07:41,240 --> 00:07:43,760 notice. And that's why I kind of kind of 131 00:07:43,760 --> 00:07:48,600 see that being a future kind of narrative that the market really 132 00:07:48,600 --> 00:07:50,920 catches on to. But obviously I'm talking like 133 00:07:50,920 --> 00:07:53,840 five years from now, which not many people want to position. 134 00:07:53,840 --> 00:07:58,480 And if I'm honest, like been in the like the, the whole offshore 135 00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:00,520 space has been absolutely brutal lately. 136 00:08:00,760 --> 00:08:05,800 So don't have much to show the last six months for this thesis. 137 00:08:05,800 --> 00:08:08,880 It's just been waking up every day and seeing them get hammered 138 00:08:08,880 --> 00:08:11,720 again. And the demand hasn't gone away. 139 00:08:11,720 --> 00:08:13,280 It's just been pushed forward a year or two. 140 00:08:14,400 --> 00:08:17,840 The the point on inflation, I think is the one I want to draw 141 00:08:17,840 --> 00:08:20,720 on because I think that is the one that dictates to a large 142 00:08:20,720 --> 00:08:24,200 extent or all the other ones. And I'm keen to sort of get an 143 00:08:24,200 --> 00:08:28,280 update on, on your thoughts. Ferg, you wrote back then that 144 00:08:28,280 --> 00:08:31,360 we're in for a highly inflationary decade. 145 00:08:31,360 --> 00:08:36,039 And you know, there's the sort of connotations on investing in 146 00:08:36,080 --> 00:08:38,600 hard assets, real assets and all these sorts of things. 147 00:08:38,919 --> 00:08:43,120 How is your thinking on that big kind of picture cycle of 148 00:08:43,240 --> 00:08:45,480 inflation changed over the last year? 149 00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:51,440 Hasn't really like I, I still think the end games there, like 150 00:08:51,440 --> 00:08:58,080 when you when you break down the situation the US is in, it's 151 00:08:58,600 --> 00:09:01,440 it's nice to see what they're doing with those stuff, but the 152 00:09:01,440 --> 00:09:03,760 it's too little too late. When you look at this sort of 153 00:09:03,760 --> 00:09:09,720 the numbers like they, they already like 87% of it's non 154 00:09:09,720 --> 00:09:11,360 discretionary or they're trying to cut. 155 00:09:11,360 --> 00:09:15,520 So they can't, they can't touch entitlements, they can't touch 156 00:09:16,480 --> 00:09:22,520 really touch defence Medicare, like all of that's already set. 157 00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:29,400 And So what they're what they're trying to cut is is not enough 158 00:09:29,400 --> 00:09:32,920 to move the needle when they're sort of 120% debt to GDP in the 159 00:09:33,040 --> 00:09:35,120 US. And so really you got three ways 160 00:09:35,120 --> 00:09:38,240 that you could balance things. Again, you got austerity, which 161 00:09:38,240 --> 00:09:39,760 is what they're essentially trying to do. 162 00:09:39,760 --> 00:09:42,840 You've got default, which why default when you print your 163 00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:45,240 currency or you've got sort of inflate the debt to get it back 164 00:09:45,240 --> 00:09:47,920 under control. And that's that's sort of 165 00:09:47,920 --> 00:09:51,640 inflating the debt to get it back under control is pretty 166 00:09:51,640 --> 00:09:53,880 much, I think almost a certainty. 167 00:09:54,560 --> 00:09:59,400 And that results as well from you just look where they're kind 168 00:09:59,400 --> 00:10:05,400 of stuck like they, if they push austerity too hard, as we've 169 00:10:05,400 --> 00:10:08,680 already seen, the stock market comes down, Stock market's a big 170 00:10:08,680 --> 00:10:12,360 part of receipts and that's government income. 171 00:10:12,560 --> 00:10:15,920 And so once you crash that, then they have to print more to make 172 00:10:15,920 --> 00:10:18,200 the balance. And so it's just you end up in 173 00:10:18,200 --> 00:10:23,360 the the same place either way that, that they, they 174 00:10:23,360 --> 00:10:25,520 essentially have to monetise the debt. 175 00:10:25,680 --> 00:10:30,640 And so I just, I see that occurring over longer the longer 176 00:10:31,040 --> 00:10:36,440 run and just positioned for that with wanting to be in, in real 177 00:10:36,440 --> 00:10:41,920 scarce assets to. And I've also kind of like any 178 00:10:42,120 --> 00:10:45,480 the likes of what Europe are doing with the whole net zero 179 00:10:45,480 --> 00:10:50,680 policy and targeting when the solar and just debasing energy. 180 00:10:50,680 --> 00:10:52,960 I think that's going to play a big role in it because energy's 181 00:10:54,000 --> 00:10:56,960 obviously very tightly correlated to inflation as well. 182 00:10:58,520 --> 00:11:02,720 Yeah. So I see that, granted it's no 183 00:11:03,120 --> 00:11:05,720 one's really worried about it at the moment seems, but I see that 184 00:11:05,720 --> 00:11:09,440 coming back in a big way. Yeah, well, Oh no, No one's 185 00:11:09,440 --> 00:11:13,200 really worried about bloody hitting open pit mining targets 186 00:11:13,200 --> 00:11:17,760 anymore, considering bloody MMS in the in the industry these 187 00:11:17,760 --> 00:11:20,360 days. Buddy, you're you're just pretty 188 00:11:20,360 --> 00:11:22,440 much guaranteed to get to the ore early. 189 00:11:22,680 --> 00:11:25,120 What a breath of. Fresh air not a is it, isn't it 190 00:11:25,120 --> 00:11:29,680 and JC and JD, it's not coincidence like 'cause you the 191 00:11:29,680 --> 00:11:32,640 the fact that they've got this whole tech services arm attached 192 00:11:32,640 --> 00:11:34,360 to it. Like I'm talking the the 193 00:11:34,360 --> 00:11:38,960 geology, the mining engineering, the like and when like resource 194 00:11:38,960 --> 00:11:41,560 work great control for the geology, not just looking at 195 00:11:41,560 --> 00:11:45,680 rocks mate, finding and telling you what the rocks are the all 196 00:11:45,680 --> 00:11:48,320 the pit designs, the the pit techies. 197 00:11:48,320 --> 00:11:52,080 And that just compliments the whole mining services side to 198 00:11:52,080 --> 00:11:55,320 blow the rock up and haul it to the crusher and make shit loads 199 00:11:55,320 --> 00:11:56,200 of cash. So. 200 00:11:56,240 --> 00:11:58,560 Full service Maddie. Mate, they've gone, mate. 201 00:11:58,960 --> 00:12:01,240 Old refractory Rob's running it, mate. 202 00:12:01,240 --> 00:12:06,760 He's gone from refractory Rob to extractory Rob because he is 203 00:12:06,760 --> 00:12:11,440 extracting bloody open pit dirt like an absolute champion 204 00:12:11,480 --> 00:12:14,400 Champion these days. So MMS anyway. 205 00:12:16,080 --> 00:12:18,440 De risk your operation. Get MMS on site. 206 00:12:19,200 --> 00:12:22,520 I will, JD. Go the tech services team. 207 00:12:23,600 --> 00:12:25,000 We can. We can definitely talk about 208 00:12:25,000 --> 00:12:27,960 Europe a bit later on there. There's one other lens just to 209 00:12:27,960 --> 00:12:31,520 play devil's advocate here for that I'm curious to get your 210 00:12:31,520 --> 00:12:33,800 thoughts on. And I'm largely in agreeance 211 00:12:33,800 --> 00:12:35,640 with how how you think about this. 212 00:12:36,000 --> 00:12:38,160 But you hear people, I think predominantly sort of from 213 00:12:38,160 --> 00:12:41,640 Silicon Valley that'll push the, the growth narrative. 214 00:12:41,640 --> 00:12:44,440 And I think that is the alternative to the the three 215 00:12:44,440 --> 00:12:46,760 kind of that you mentioned of how this kind of plays out. 216 00:12:47,560 --> 00:12:49,760 You know, the the counter being they can grow their way out and 217 00:12:49,760 --> 00:12:54,640 they do that through doge and deregulation broadly to inspire 218 00:12:54,640 --> 00:12:59,440 growth in the USDA. Do you ascribe high odds to that 219 00:12:59,640 --> 00:13:04,120 happening and that being a means of actually minimizing what that 220 00:13:05,240 --> 00:13:09,800 debt to GDP ratio is? Yes, it's a have high enough 221 00:13:09,800 --> 00:13:11,320 productivity that you can grow your way out. 222 00:13:11,320 --> 00:13:16,360 Yeah, I've seen those arguments put forward especially on the 223 00:13:16,360 --> 00:13:21,280 back of that AI just producing like a boom and productivity. 224 00:13:21,640 --> 00:13:27,200 I think the the cleanest counter argument that is the fact that 225 00:13:27,520 --> 00:13:33,240 large parts of the economy are off and not especially in US 226 00:13:33,240 --> 00:13:34,240 you're not allowed to compete with. 227 00:13:34,240 --> 00:13:37,200 And this is the idea that just being so heavily regulated 228 00:13:37,200 --> 00:13:45,840 cartel like sort of duopolies, olipolies, regulatory capture 229 00:13:46,520 --> 00:13:52,440 that it's, I don't think that productivity can even show up. 230 00:13:52,440 --> 00:13:56,400 Like it's there's this great chart that people can look up 231 00:13:56,400 --> 00:13:59,320 from Mark Andreessen. This is showing that they have a 232 00:13:59,320 --> 00:14:02,880 2 tiered economy. And you've got areas that 233 00:14:03,280 --> 00:14:05,760 supposedly AI should dominate, like education. 234 00:14:05,880 --> 00:14:08,320 And the education inflation is just out of control. 235 00:14:08,360 --> 00:14:09,960 Like every year it's higher, higher. 236 00:14:10,200 --> 00:14:16,120 Same with with medical like should really be sort of a 237 00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:21,440 breakthrough in productivity, but it's also captured that they 238 00:14:21,440 --> 00:14:25,960 just keep increasing costs and everything that technology is 239 00:14:25,960 --> 00:14:28,720 going to attack, it's already kind of attacked. 240 00:14:28,720 --> 00:14:34,720 It's all the electronics, all the all the areas that we've 241 00:14:34,720 --> 00:14:37,480 seen just China essentially dominate. 242 00:14:37,760 --> 00:14:40,920 And so, and another great book on this is the myth of 243 00:14:40,920 --> 00:14:44,600 Capitalism, which is arguing the same thing essentially, that 244 00:14:45,280 --> 00:14:50,040 there's just been such such almost crony capitalism across 245 00:14:50,040 --> 00:14:55,360 the whole the United States and the the vast majority of 246 00:14:55,360 --> 00:14:58,160 manufacturing has been outsourced that that's not going 247 00:14:58,160 --> 00:15:00,400 to that's not going to change anytime soon. 248 00:15:00,760 --> 00:15:03,160 And if you did change that, it'd be so painful way back to the 249 00:15:03,160 --> 00:15:08,600 point that you'd cause a hell of a recession and you need to 250 00:15:08,600 --> 00:15:12,880 print the difference to to fund the dead again and see you back, 251 00:15:12,880 --> 00:15:17,600 you straight back into the whole on sort of inflation spiral. 252 00:15:18,840 --> 00:15:23,240 Fergie hunt for these, these charts that just look, look like 253 00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:26,760 they're on a, on a downward trajectory, like like absolutely 254 00:15:26,760 --> 00:15:29,560 beaten up and they've just been bottom feeding for ages. 255 00:15:29,960 --> 00:15:31,760 You and you, you'd look everywhere for them. 256 00:15:31,960 --> 00:15:34,680 If they're a cyclical industry, you put capital there and and 257 00:15:34,680 --> 00:15:36,640 then you're patient. Where are those charts at the 258 00:15:36,640 --> 00:15:42,040 moment? Yes, I, I refer to it as now as 259 00:15:42,040 --> 00:15:46,000 like when the patient's dead, like it's, you know, you know, 260 00:15:46,280 --> 00:15:49,600 you're watching the, the medical movie and they're all the 261 00:15:49,600 --> 00:15:52,120 families sitting around and you see the heartbeat beat slowing 262 00:15:52,120 --> 00:15:56,360 and it, and then it stops and you hear the, the buzz and it 263 00:15:56,360 --> 00:15:58,640 just goes flat. I'm, I'm looking for those 264 00:15:58,640 --> 00:16:02,480 charts. And I guess probably taking the 265 00:16:02,480 --> 00:16:05,080 analogy too far and like what, what could like be the catalyst 266 00:16:05,080 --> 00:16:07,120 to turn around? Like when are the, the, the 267 00:16:08,360 --> 00:16:12,200 resuscitation coming around that could bring it back? 268 00:16:12,960 --> 00:16:15,560 And I think last time when I was on with your boys, I was just 269 00:16:16,320 --> 00:16:19,640 going through the whole PG Ms. trade. 270 00:16:19,640 --> 00:16:23,600 And that's been sort of a one that I, I see that a lot at the 271 00:16:23,600 --> 00:16:27,520 moment, particularly like we're just talking about rhodium, 272 00:16:27,600 --> 00:16:33,080 which is, that's probably when I'm thinking of like the, the 273 00:16:33,080 --> 00:16:35,480 absolute flat line and then the breakout. 274 00:16:35,480 --> 00:16:38,920 That's the most clinical one I've ever seen at the moment. 275 00:16:38,920 --> 00:16:41,640 It's a beautiful. Chart that one like the the the 276 00:16:41,640 --> 00:16:44,920 run up in that in the was it like, you know, between kind of 277 00:16:45,200 --> 00:16:49,840 2010 and 2015 is is outrageous and then falls off a Cliff and 278 00:16:49,840 --> 00:16:51,840 now you've got a bit of a breakout again. 279 00:16:52,400 --> 00:16:54,600 What's going on there? I mean, it's a pretty, pretty 280 00:16:54,600 --> 00:16:56,720 thinly traded market probably. Yeah. 281 00:16:56,720 --> 00:16:58,600 So it's opaque is all. Helps. 282 00:16:58,600 --> 00:17:01,120 I'm not. I'm gonna start by saying I've 283 00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:04,400 got no idea. I've got no insight at all as 284 00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:07,319 what, why, who's jumping in there in volume. 285 00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:10,760 I've got yeah, zero idea. I could just throw out some 286 00:17:11,040 --> 00:17:16,440 conspiracy theories and some Chinese EV manufacturer hoarding 287 00:17:16,440 --> 00:17:18,560 because they see it as a byproduct and. 288 00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:20,560 Maybe someone's listening to you talk about it and thinking I 289 00:17:20,560 --> 00:17:22,560 could squeeze this market. How? 290 00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:24,560 How much have you got locked away, Ferg? 291 00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:29,360 Yeah, a little bit. Yeah, the the you know, that's 292 00:17:29,360 --> 00:17:31,600 also the problem what I'm talking about as well with like 293 00:17:31,600 --> 00:17:34,920 I don't want to be seen as like, yeah, because I'm the only 294 00:17:34,920 --> 00:17:37,440 person that's actually I've come across that's even talked about 295 00:17:37,440 --> 00:17:39,000 rhodium. So it's like, are you are you 296 00:17:39,320 --> 00:17:40,960 trying to move? But it's been good because I 297 00:17:40,960 --> 00:17:44,840 only mentioned that lately. So it's absolutely zero to do 298 00:17:44,840 --> 00:17:48,720 with me. And it does have some striking 299 00:17:48,720 --> 00:17:52,480 similarities to like uranium and that believe like 80% of its 300 00:17:52,480 --> 00:17:55,840 long term contracted. And so whenever those contracts 301 00:17:56,200 --> 00:17:59,720 obviously fall short is like 20% that trades on spot. 302 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:02,800 And so they've got to go in and purchase it on spot. 303 00:18:03,520 --> 00:18:05,880 And then Rhodium, it's a by product. 304 00:18:05,880 --> 00:18:09,040 So you can't really move supply based on supply and demand. 305 00:18:09,040 --> 00:18:13,600 It's largely, largely just comes out of the Bush field in South 306 00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:18,520 Africa and you've got just a reef around the bottom of South 307 00:18:18,520 --> 00:18:23,240 Africa where the platinum deposits are quite high rhodium. 308 00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:28,120 So rhodium is produced in a few other places like Russia with 309 00:18:28,120 --> 00:18:33,680 non nickel, Zambia, but in US, but it's all very, very low 310 00:18:33,760 --> 00:18:36,120 splits. So you're talking think Russia's 311 00:18:36,120 --> 00:18:41,400 like 2% split with the Palladium dominant deposit. 312 00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:45,160 Zambia, it's about the same. US it's even lower like 1%. 313 00:18:45,160 --> 00:18:48,320 And then there's one little spot in South Africa, you're up 314 00:18:48,320 --> 00:18:54,680 around 8-9 percent and that's, so that's where sort of 85% of 315 00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:58,360 global rhodium production is. And again, this is all based on 316 00:18:59,160 --> 00:19:03,640 them essentially extracting PGM. So rhodium is just one part of 317 00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:06,240 that equation. And so it's hard to move the 318 00:19:06,240 --> 00:19:10,440 supply on that. And so when you're a pure 319 00:19:10,440 --> 00:19:15,240 byproduct, it really trades on like illiquidity doesn't really 320 00:19:15,240 --> 00:19:17,800 trade on fundamentals, I guess like when you need it, you just 321 00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:20,480 got to pay up for it. And This is why I loved it is 322 00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:24,880 you get to sit there in a physical metal that's got, it's 323 00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:27,120 like an out of the money call option type volatility. 324 00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:32,040 And so by the time this airs, it's probably collapsed back 325 00:19:32,040 --> 00:19:36,480 down to where it was. But I just know that, yeah, when 326 00:19:36,480 --> 00:19:38,120 someone needs it, they're going to have to pay up. 327 00:19:38,120 --> 00:19:40,640 And it's done this five times. Like if you're talking 328 00:19:40,640 --> 00:19:44,240 cyclicality, this is probably the most cyclical little 329 00:19:44,240 --> 00:19:48,200 commodity I've come across that five times already has been a 330 00:19:48,200 --> 00:19:52,600 multi bagger. And then obviously supplier gets 331 00:19:54,920 --> 00:19:58,120 gets incentivized generally because it goes hand in hand 332 00:19:58,120 --> 00:20:01,200 with PG Ms., which is another point why this is quite 333 00:20:01,200 --> 00:20:04,720 interesting is both platinum and Palladium are both down. 334 00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:07,640 So it doesn't actually make sense why it's rocketing. 335 00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:15,720 It's not logical either. But yeah, I if you zoom out, the 336 00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:19,280 biggest story kind of like I went through when I was last on, 337 00:20:19,280 --> 00:20:23,280 is that the entire space is rolling over and no one's 338 00:20:23,280 --> 00:20:26,000 worried about it because they think EVs are going to rocket 339 00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:27,800 and there's no need for catalytic converters. 340 00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:31,240 Whereas I hold a different, different opinion that the likes 341 00:20:31,240 --> 00:20:35,440 of BYD with its massive ramp and plug in hybrids and their 342 00:20:35,440 --> 00:20:38,240 additional need for catalytic converters is it can actually 343 00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:42,360 drive demand up. And at the same time all the 344 00:20:42,360 --> 00:20:48,200 plans to expand production either being cancelled or being 345 00:20:48,200 --> 00:20:52,000 pushed out like nor Nickel which was supposed to add 8% to global 346 00:20:52,000 --> 00:20:58,000 PGM production that was supposed to come online by 2027 that was 347 00:20:58,000 --> 00:21:01,360 supposed to be commissioned in 2023. 348 00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:05,840 So that due to sanctions they couldn't get equipment. 349 00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:09,080 So they'll push the project out and that's yet to start. 350 00:21:09,080 --> 00:21:11,480 They haven't given a new timeline, but granted that 351 00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:15,520 timeline was four years. Even if they start start now, 352 00:21:15,520 --> 00:21:18,120 still four years down. And then again, this is 353 00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:21,680 Palladium rich. So two, 2/3 of their production 354 00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:28,040 is Palladium, like 2% is rhodium and the rest is platinum. 355 00:21:28,360 --> 00:21:31,960 And interestingly, their economics are driven by nickel 356 00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:34,960 because they're prominently nickel focused and obviously 357 00:21:34,960 --> 00:21:38,120 nickels in the shutter as well. So they're probably pushing out 358 00:21:38,120 --> 00:21:39,640 CapEx on the back of that as well. 359 00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:43,040 So it's a, it's a similar story across so many commodities. 360 00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:47,600 Is this just all the investment looks horrible when you get out 361 00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:52,360 to 2030 like all the resources rolling over and I think demand 362 00:21:52,360 --> 00:21:54,600 is going to be surprisingly strong. 363 00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:58,520 And yet anyone trying to invest on this generally had a quite a 364 00:21:58,520 --> 00:22:02,000 rough time. If you I've got a small position 365 00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:04,240 in Subarnier, they're just being beaten up in there. 366 00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:08,160 So that's why I kind of find the rhodium even more fascinating 367 00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:10,920 and like pretty Chuck such a big slab in it. 368 00:22:11,520 --> 00:22:14,720 We were we were we were in the Bush Feld and we'd we'd visited 369 00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:17,800 a pic the PGM operation. I sent you a message pitching 370 00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:19,200 you a stock and you're like no I'm happy. 371 00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:23,240 Holding physical rhodium and out of the money call options is 372 00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:24,920 Subarnier is my barbell strategy. 373 00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:29,960 Yeah, exactly. Well, I just I've been beaten up 374 00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:33,040 so much reminders that when I find something clean like this, 375 00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:35,560 because it's it's the other thing that's so exciting when 376 00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:38,520 you get to own physical is you and sit and inherently have a 377 00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:43,680 call option on South Africa going to shit, which has been a 378 00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:47,160 high, high probability sort of outcome recently. 379 00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:52,040 And whether it's load shedding. We're at some of the bills that 380 00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:58,960 passed recently that are pretty on like pretty concerning I 381 00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:04,360 guess. And yeah, with physical and 85% 382 00:23:04,360 --> 00:23:08,800 of rhodium coming out of South Africa, if things do take a real 383 00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:11,000 turn for the worst there, you've got a call option on that 384 00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:14,840 because yeah, you can expect them the supply to get a lot 385 00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:17,040 tighter. And so I love it from that angle 386 00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:20,280 as well. With it was Subarnier an 387 00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:24,680 increasingly Anglo American platinum with it just being sold 388 00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:29,560 down by its parent. It's just that's kind of a, a 389 00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:34,320 hedge that maybe Palladium and platinum also run hard. 390 00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:38,640 And yeah, maybe if there is potential that rhodium gets 391 00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:42,040 substituted in some way, it's always going to be like, what 392 00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:44,800 can go wrong? And the thing with rhodium is 393 00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:47,920 you've got 85% of its demand is just purely catalytic 394 00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:50,440 converters. And there is a, there is a, a 395 00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:55,000 possibility that it could be kind of engineered out of a 396 00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:57,440 catalytic converter or severely reduced. 397 00:23:57,520 --> 00:24:01,200 Maybe some new AI can work out how to substitute plating or 398 00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:04,640 platinum or some other element to really reduce it. 399 00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:09,600 And so it's not as kind of ear tighters say uranium where you 400 00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:15,960 just, you know, this was a 440 reactors operate in the 65 under 401 00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:18,080 construction and they're all going to require uranium. 402 00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:20,280 They're not going to all suddenly switch to forum or 403 00:24:20,360 --> 00:24:24,080 something else. It was the, the comment we heard 404 00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:28,400 when we were in South Africa was the the loading of yeah, like 405 00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:31,800 platinum and Palladium in some of these plug in hybrids is, is 406 00:24:31,800 --> 00:24:33,840 decreasing pretty substantially over time as well. 407 00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:36,280 Which again, I mean that's kind of like the whole lithium 408 00:24:36,280 --> 00:24:39,040 intensity thing in the, in the AV batteries that we saw play 409 00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:41,640 out too in some respects. But the end of the day, at the 410 00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:44,440 moment you still need it. You need it in in substantial 411 00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:47,080 quantities even if there is a a reducing load. 412 00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:51,080 Yeah, what they So they can only reduce it so much. 413 00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:57,040 So they've got the, a lot of what I see extrapolated with 414 00:24:57,440 --> 00:25:01,560 China sort of going into like near 0, like Western media loves 415 00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:04,360 to pick certain headlines like this is their solar build out, 416 00:25:04,360 --> 00:25:06,400 this is their, and this leaves out that they're sort of 417 00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:08,840 building a coal plant next to the the solar grid. 418 00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:15,280 And one thing that most developing countries are pushing 419 00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:18,880 very hard is matching emission standards because they don't 420 00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:21,440 want the smog. They've seen what sort of China 421 00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:24,120 and India have gone through. So the emission standards are 422 00:25:24,120 --> 00:25:30,720 quite high and that requires sort of a minimum PGM loading. 423 00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:34,840 And then on the demand side, I think demand is just going to 424 00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:37,240 continue to surprise to the upside for these new energy 425 00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:39,440 vehicles because a lot of the buyers are going to be first 426 00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:41,400 buyers. So they're just going to keep 427 00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:44,400 the demand will just keep showing up because now I know 428 00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:48,960 I'm seeing it here in in Indonesia and Bali. 429 00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:55,080 I drove down to Eluado on Valentine's Day with my wife and 430 00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:58,440 we just got stuck in traffic and I just ended up counting Byds 431 00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:00,880 and I'd never seen them before maybe six months. 432 00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:05,440 And I counted like 2530 on just the way down to Alawatu all 433 00:26:05,440 --> 00:26:09,200 brand, brand spanking you. And you can pick these up for 434 00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:16,640 sort of 15/14/15 thousand US and they're just crazy, like build 435 00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:20,760 quality, crazy mileage, beautiful, beautiful cars. 436 00:26:21,360 --> 00:26:25,560 And at that sort of price point, there's a lot of people that 437 00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:29,160 are, is going to be sort of an upgrade from a scooter to to 438 00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:32,040 that sort of vehicle. And I think think demands going 439 00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:35,240 to really surprise to the upside across the whole developing 440 00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:38,160 world. Whereas it's going to disappoint 441 00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:40,880 across the Western world, which is where everyone's sort of 442 00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:42,520 pointing and saying, look at the tariffs. 443 00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:46,160 They're going to defend their their domestic industries and 444 00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:48,680 stunt Chinese growth. But I don't think that's where 445 00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:52,200 China's looking to grow. Can you get any exposure to who 446 00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:55,760 builds the catalytic converters outside of the materials itself? 447 00:26:56,520 --> 00:27:03,560 You can with Johnson, Matthew, I think Matthew, maybe it's a PGM 448 00:27:03,800 --> 00:27:08,080 sort of processor. Few people I respect have 449 00:27:08,680 --> 00:27:11,280 pitched that as a sort of an investment angle. 450 00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:14,560 I kind of went through it and I couldn't get nearly as excited 451 00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:17,200 about it as just going straight rhodium. 452 00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:21,360 I'll tell you what I could get bloody excited about, Ferg is 453 00:27:21,360 --> 00:27:25,200 SWIG approaching 18,000,000 drill meters Wow, there we know 454 00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:30,520 there are 17,000,000 JD 1818 millions around the corner and. 455 00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:32,040 It's a hard number to wrap your head around. 456 00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:33,200 I. Still haven't. 457 00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:37,640 I still haven't heard the the absolute staple for underground 458 00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:42,040 exploration drilling. And mate, they are going down 459 00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:43,880 there breaking a bloody record every day. 460 00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:47,000 Because I want to know what the record is for the deepest 461 00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:49,320 underground diamond drill hole ever drill. 462 00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:52,920 Because if Deep X haven't drilled it yet, they're probably 463 00:27:53,120 --> 00:27:57,040 about to drill it. So yeah, wow, if someone knows 464 00:27:57,040 --> 00:27:58,760 that. Any day now, any day. 465 00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:04,640 Any day, right? Or just the fact that they drill 466 00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:07,240 the longest diamond holes in the world is just nothing to be 467 00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:11,200 ashamed of or unbelievable. Go sweet, go deep, X. 468 00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:18,120 Your point on on BYD is, is fascinating and we're seeing it 469 00:28:18,120 --> 00:28:20,000 here in Australia as well. I think you can now get one for 470 00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:24,840 under 30 grand Aussie. That's the the 1st AV to get 471 00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:27,680 below that price. And I also saw that in the top 472 00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:31,480 ten, I think it was 6th place best selling car in Australia is 473 00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:35,120 the byd Ute. It's it's mind blowing. 474 00:28:35,120 --> 00:28:39,960 And I think about stuff you've you've written of going long BYD 475 00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:43,720 essentially and kind of short Tesla and you haven't not 476 00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:46,680 necessarily done this, but that's kind of broad strokes. 477 00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:51,080 How do you think about this and how do you think about the the 478 00:28:51,080 --> 00:28:58,240 Super excessive valuations on some of these very popular names 479 00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:03,520 in on global markets? You know, I think Tesla's like 480 00:29:03,520 --> 00:29:05,840 the prime example of it, honestly. 481 00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:10,280 Like it's people just have PTSD from shorting that thing. 482 00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:13,800 You see the shorts have gone from 25% of float for years to 483 00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:17,960 they're like 1.9% as of now and the company's screwed. 484 00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:22,720 I like what unless they're sort of going to create robots and I 485 00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:26,800 think I, I read an article a few days ago that Kathy Woods season 486 00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:33,400 producing robo taxis that bring home like 90% margins within 487 00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:35,600 like a few years. And it's just all these like 488 00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:38,160 sort of hail, hail Marys to justify the stock price. 489 00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:41,520 But to me it's getting eaten alive. 490 00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:45,000 You can see this in China. They have like 20% of their 491 00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:47,640 revenue in China and they're just getting eaten alive by the 492 00:29:47,640 --> 00:29:51,840 Chinese manufacturers. The you just don't you just 493 00:29:51,840 --> 00:29:56,720 can't compete in any arena that China's decided wants to 494 00:29:56,720 --> 00:30:00,200 dominate. They really have just their 495 00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:01,960 industrial policy is second to none. 496 00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:05,040 So they just open their cheque book and they'll just absolutely 497 00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:10,560 start a crazy sort of competition war and fund them, 498 00:30:10,560 --> 00:30:13,160 give them subsidies, give them big orders from the state owned 499 00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:15,200 companies. So that they got up to like 400 500 00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:17,520 odd EV companies. And now it's whittled down to I 501 00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:20,440 think there's like 70 remaining. But really it's 8. 502 00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:23,720 And really it's really it's like two or three when you consider 503 00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:30,920 BYDS now got 37% domestic market share in China and just 504 00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:33,400 dominating and no one can compete with that. 505 00:30:33,760 --> 00:30:37,560 And the problem with Tesla's valuation there was price like 506 00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:42,040 it was going to take over an increasing share of global 507 00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:44,320 market share when it's just getting eaten alive. 508 00:30:44,320 --> 00:30:46,360 Like you just put BYD next to a Tesla. 509 00:30:46,360 --> 00:30:48,800 And I couldn't agree with you more. 510 00:30:48,800 --> 00:30:54,600 Like how every release by BYD is almost like when the iPhones 511 00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:56,160 used to come out. It's just exciting. 512 00:30:56,160 --> 00:30:57,520 Like what are they going to release now? 513 00:30:57,520 --> 00:31:02,400 Like a seal that can do 2100 KS on a single charger and tank gas 514 00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:06,640 their 4 wheel drive which can float and drive across lakes and 515 00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:09,520 it could sideways park or do a 360 on the spot. 516 00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:11,720 The wheels that can fully spin around. 517 00:31:12,560 --> 00:31:14,960 Yeah, crazy. I, I, I haven't even. 518 00:31:15,320 --> 00:31:18,280 I haven't Even so quote me on this because I looked it up. 519 00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:21,000 I had a friend told me that they're doing some sort of a 520 00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:24,880 flying a flying vehicle and I haven't I haven't even looked 521 00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:28,360 into that. I was like just what is this 522 00:31:28,360 --> 00:31:32,600 company and how how is this trading 25 times Ford PE and or 523 00:31:32,600 --> 00:31:36,040 I don't even think it's 25. I think it's like 21 and Tesla 524 00:31:36,040 --> 00:31:38,640 grand has probably come down since I looked at it, but it was 525 00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:45,440 like over 100 Ford PE yeah, it's long long short was yeah, I've 526 00:31:45,520 --> 00:31:48,360 I've happily had that long short on, but I'll probably more 527 00:31:48,360 --> 00:31:51,240 happily have probably a bit late now, but would have been like 528 00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:53,400 long rhodium short lithium for a while then. 529 00:31:54,120 --> 00:31:56,800 Well, they've got baywides, haven't got home batteries now 530 00:31:57,080 --> 00:31:59,520 to compete against the Tesla Powerwalls. 531 00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:01,440 Yeah, they'll get big tickets from WA given that. 532 00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:03,280 Yeah, a lot because we just roasted a lot. 533 00:32:03,280 --> 00:32:09,680 WI's just announced 20,000 batteries get a $5000 rebate in 534 00:32:09,720 --> 00:32:13,520 from July 1st. So what's if that sort of takes 535 00:32:13,520 --> 00:32:14,680 off? Imagine if households start 536 00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:17,720 taking up home batteries to connect to solar and that 537 00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:20,440 becomes the addition to EVs. Like how much? 538 00:32:20,440 --> 00:32:25,160 Why do you putting towards the intensity for all the materials 539 00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:29,480 to go into them? Yes I I haven't played the 540 00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:32,240 battery side at all because I just find it way too hard. 541 00:32:32,400 --> 00:32:38,120 Like, I think BYD is the perfect example of that is you'd, if 542 00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:42,920 anyone had, if you just had a flat spreadsheet of how many 543 00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:47,040 cars they're pumping out and you rewinded five years, you would 544 00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:50,160 have thought the whole EV thesis was actually like on fire. 545 00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:53,200 It had been really correct. But what if you're looking at 546 00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:55,840 the details, what they labeled new energy vehicles, you'd 547 00:32:55,840 --> 00:33:01,040 realise that new energy vehicles are up by 80% year on year, 548 00:33:01,040 --> 00:33:03,320 whereas the EV's, I think they're 8%. 549 00:33:03,560 --> 00:33:06,920 So they're completely, I think nearly 60% of the productions 550 00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:10,560 now these plug in hybrids. So they're, they're almost, 551 00:33:12,560 --> 00:33:15,600 they're really reducing the EV, the straight battery electric 552 00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:19,040 vehicle out of their production line to an extent. 553 00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:23,560 And when you get into the batteries, they, so the 554 00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:26,760 assumption was it would be like a whole lithium battery for a 555 00:33:26,760 --> 00:33:29,520 car. Now it's now it's only 1/3 of 556 00:33:29,520 --> 00:33:31,640 that with what you need in a plug in hybrid. 557 00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:36,000 And then they switch to lithium ion phosphate and see you've 558 00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:38,000 only got a third and you've got lithium ion phosphate. 559 00:33:38,000 --> 00:33:41,280 And then they build a factory last year that's switching to 560 00:33:42,040 --> 00:33:46,480 sodium ion and that that's nameplate capacity and sodium 561 00:33:46,480 --> 00:33:50,400 ion can pretty much do their current production and their 562 00:33:50,400 --> 00:33:53,040 plug in hybrids. And then their Chief technology 563 00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:56,200 officer came out a month or two ago and said, yeah, we'll have 564 00:33:56,360 --> 00:34:01,320 solid-state batteries. We'll have demonstration by 2027 565 00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:04,000 and we'll have it commercial by 2030. 566 00:34:04,320 --> 00:34:08,159 And it doesn't seem like a company I want to take the under 567 00:34:08,159 --> 00:34:13,040 on like a Elon said that I'd kind of have a giggle, but Byd's 568 00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:15,840 chief technology officer, I probably wouldn't bet against 569 00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:18,400 that. So yeah, to your question about 570 00:34:18,400 --> 00:34:24,600 sort of the to them doing sort of the Tesla power wall, like 571 00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:27,080 what what battery chemistry will that even be? 572 00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:29,760 Will that be a solid-state? Will that be a sodium ion? 573 00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:34,000 Will that be I? Because I always saw there was a 574 00:34:34,000 --> 00:34:40,280 lot of talk of just how big the lithium ion industry would be. 575 00:34:40,639 --> 00:34:43,000 And I just, yeah, I was always like, that's a massive 576 00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:44,440 assumption that it's the ultimate winner. 577 00:34:46,920 --> 00:34:50,400 A battery material that you have spoken about sort of brought 578 00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:54,960 away on electronics is tin. What's your, what's your latest 579 00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:57,840 thinking on, on tin? There's been some very 580 00:34:57,840 --> 00:35:00,680 interesting geopolitics that we've touched on in the past in 581 00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:05,000 the in the world of tin, specifically in the DRC and you 582 00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:08,360 know, the the one real Aussie name has has moved quite well in 583 00:35:08,360 --> 00:35:10,080 the past month. What's your latest think in 584 00:35:10,080 --> 00:35:12,320 there? Yes I love it. 585 00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:15,800 I wish there was more ways to play it because I don't want to 586 00:35:15,800 --> 00:35:18,240 size a just a single minor up too much. 587 00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:21,800 I always avoided Alfman purely because I've just got too much 588 00:35:21,800 --> 00:35:26,200 PTSD in Africa. I just, I don't care how good 589 00:35:26,200 --> 00:35:32,600 the miners, I just, I just don't want to be in the DRC and prefer 590 00:35:32,600 --> 00:35:34,520 to have a safe jurisdiction in Australia. 591 00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:37,960 And there's a kind of a great risk reward at the moment 592 00:35:37,960 --> 00:35:40,880 because people were so of middle's X, they were just 593 00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:45,480 annoyed with how poorly they've allocated capital for years. 594 00:35:46,000 --> 00:35:48,280 And they were like, oh, they're going to do something dumb like 595 00:35:48,280 --> 00:35:51,040 building up the cash buffer now so they can get the other half 596 00:35:51,040 --> 00:35:55,320 of ransom from the this JV. That's pretty bloody accretive. 597 00:35:55,360 --> 00:36:00,240 That's a great use of the the cash, especially with I think 598 00:36:00,240 --> 00:36:04,000 the market supply came down, but demand also came down. 599 00:36:04,000 --> 00:36:09,760 So the market hasn't done a lot, but it's been sort of slow sort 600 00:36:09,760 --> 00:36:13,560 of disappointing growth out of China and some other developing 601 00:36:13,560 --> 00:36:16,280 countries that have brought sort of electronic demand down. 602 00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:19,440 But I don't see that as like kind of a long term trend. 603 00:36:19,440 --> 00:36:21,560 I see that kind of surprising to the upside and I don't think 604 00:36:21,560 --> 00:36:24,360 supply is going to follow it. So all things equal, I think 10 605 00:36:24,360 --> 00:36:29,160 is going to keep surprising to the upside and there's very few 606 00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:33,640 ways to play it. And yeah, so I'm, I'm a messable 607 00:36:33,840 --> 00:36:36,200 on Middlesex. Ding, Ding, Ding on on Middlesex 608 00:36:36,680 --> 00:36:38,920 Fig. I saw a headline last week out 609 00:36:38,920 --> 00:36:43,400 of Reuters that Myanmar's major mine there, which is being kind 610 00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:47,080 of shut down for the best part of last two years has been 611 00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:51,960 signaled to to return the the man more mine in the WA state 612 00:36:51,960 --> 00:36:53,560 there. Have you, have you, have you, 613 00:36:53,600 --> 00:36:56,160 have you thought about that any kind of you know, short, medium 614 00:36:56,160 --> 00:37:00,320 term kind of headwinds on the on the tin price? 615 00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:04,280 No, no, I've got to have a dig. I haven't actually read that 616 00:37:04,280 --> 00:37:07,640 article yet. Yeah, I need to put more work in 617 00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:10,240 my My understanding was it was quite high graded so they 618 00:37:10,240 --> 00:37:12,320 weren't going to see a big production jump, but probably 619 00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:15,920 need to go through it again. What about Cobalt mate? 620 00:37:16,160 --> 00:37:19,520 The lads did a good episode on Cobalt the other day regarding 621 00:37:19,520 --> 00:37:24,720 the, the new trust that is coming up the, I don't know, we 622 00:37:24,720 --> 00:37:28,360 made-up our own name cut Cobalt Unit Trust. 623 00:37:29,440 --> 00:37:33,000 Speaking of things that are hided and nearly not breathing. 624 00:37:33,880 --> 00:37:40,240 It just seemed the journey this was about to take on with the ex 625 00:37:40,320 --> 00:37:43,800 yellow cake folk involved and you know, they got the deal with 626 00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:48,600 Glencore to buy Cobalt for it. It looked like very early stage 627 00:37:48,600 --> 00:37:51,360 sort of spot yellow cake arrangements when I guess they 628 00:37:51,360 --> 00:37:54,120 accumulated a lot of pounds at lower prices. 629 00:37:54,840 --> 00:37:58,040 And then obviously spa is retracted a lot now. 630 00:37:58,400 --> 00:38:02,400 But how do you view Cobalt? I assume that has to be right in 631 00:38:02,400 --> 00:38:06,400 your wheelhouse of hatred. Yeah, it's certainly hated, but 632 00:38:06,400 --> 00:38:09,360 I I don't see where the sort of big demand boost is going to 633 00:38:09,360 --> 00:38:13,160 come from. So I can't get that excited 634 00:38:13,400 --> 00:38:17,520 about it here honestly. And I kind of got, if I were to, 635 00:38:18,040 --> 00:38:21,200 it's similar to nickel. Like I agree it's it's hated, 636 00:38:21,240 --> 00:38:24,960 but I just I don't know where the sort of the demand upside 637 00:38:24,960 --> 00:38:28,000 is. And I don't have a sort of a 638 00:38:28,000 --> 00:38:31,680 clearview on it, unlike, yeah, like kind of like PGMS, how I've 639 00:38:31,680 --> 00:38:33,800 got a Clearview. Why the demands going to show 640 00:38:33,800 --> 00:38:37,800 up? I can't, I really have that 641 00:38:37,800 --> 00:38:42,760 clean, cleaner view. And so probably for now, it's 642 00:38:43,480 --> 00:38:45,360 staying the sort of too hard basket, I guess. 643 00:38:46,120 --> 00:38:51,520 Granted, I'll just happily be long almost any commodities I 644 00:38:51,520 --> 00:38:54,080 think people will do well and the vast majority of commodities 645 00:38:54,080 --> 00:38:57,320 just as a .2 of higher structural inflation. 646 00:38:57,320 --> 00:39:00,240 I just want to be in the ones where I can see like a a strong 647 00:39:00,240 --> 00:39:04,720 bid for demand that I don't think anyone's thinking about. 648 00:39:05,440 --> 00:39:06,960 I think that's a true measure of height. 649 00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:11,640 If it's hided and you hide it, that is the that is the ultimate 650 00:39:11,640 --> 00:39:13,840 height that any commodity can have. 651 00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:17,000 Well, I just haven't done the work. 652 00:39:18,920 --> 00:39:22,400 Ferg, I'm really interested to to dive into the various sort of 653 00:39:22,400 --> 00:39:25,000 cycles at play. We, we started by talking about 654 00:39:25,000 --> 00:39:29,360 this broader kind of cycle with the big names getting a lot of 655 00:39:29,360 --> 00:39:32,640 attention in, in markets like the apples and stuff of the 656 00:39:32,640 --> 00:39:34,560 world. And then all the other places 657 00:39:34,560 --> 00:39:37,960 you play in have their own kind of cycles. 658 00:39:37,960 --> 00:39:43,880 And when I think of the likes of uranium, coal comes to mind, 659 00:39:43,880 --> 00:39:49,520 offshore oil services, a lot of these from say roughly 2020 to 660 00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:53,440 23, four were in an up cycle and they were and they were doing 661 00:39:53,440 --> 00:39:55,480 well. And then those 3, not all of 662 00:39:55,480 --> 00:39:59,240 them, but those three come to mind as having peeled back a 663 00:39:59,240 --> 00:40:02,520 little bit in, in certain regards, you know, spot pricing 664 00:40:02,520 --> 00:40:06,160 on on uranium coal prices have sort of peeled back. 665 00:40:06,160 --> 00:40:08,560 That was the sort of hell of a cycle they they had. 666 00:40:08,560 --> 00:40:11,760 But. Some of those names are just 667 00:40:11,760 --> 00:40:15,120 hugely shorted now. So the the offshore oil services 668 00:40:15,120 --> 00:40:17,760 names, you know, you know. Like. 669 00:40:18,520 --> 00:40:23,160 Noble comes to mind And some of the the other US ones 15% plus, 670 00:40:23,160 --> 00:40:27,840 you know, 10% plus shorted can say the same for uranium names. 671 00:40:28,840 --> 00:40:30,760 I think of that and you've you've made me think of this 672 00:40:30,760 --> 00:40:32,600 very well. When you piece together the fact 673 00:40:32,600 --> 00:40:35,080 that the likes of Tesla, nobody wants to short them anymore 674 00:40:35,600 --> 00:40:38,920 despite their insane valuations. What do you think's kind of 675 00:40:38,920 --> 00:40:42,760 happening there at A at a larger kind of market sense? 676 00:40:43,320 --> 00:40:45,040 It's more of a thought. I haven't put the question 677 00:40:45,040 --> 00:40:46,800 together well, but they're the, they're the thoughts. 678 00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:51,040 I know you, yeah, yeah, I think there's different reasons some 679 00:40:51,040 --> 00:40:54,800 sectors being shorted. I kind of kind of be joking and, 680 00:40:56,080 --> 00:40:59,320 and just looking across My Portfolio and I have pretty 681 00:40:59,320 --> 00:41:04,880 heavy shorts in almost all areas and even even weird places like 682 00:41:04,880 --> 00:41:08,560 kind of Chinese tech, which I'm a I'm a big bull on. 683 00:41:08,760 --> 00:41:12,120 And some of the ETFs are up around 10:15. 684 00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:15,320 There's even one ETF that's 40% has 40% shorter interest. 685 00:41:15,840 --> 00:41:20,520 And you go across to offshore, which I think what's going on 686 00:41:20,520 --> 00:41:23,320 there is like pawn shops that generate great alpha. 687 00:41:23,560 --> 00:41:27,520 They just short on sort of EPS revisions next quarter. 688 00:41:27,680 --> 00:41:30,960 So they don't give a shit what's where, how cheap stock is or 689 00:41:30,960 --> 00:41:33,920 where it's going to trade out like sort of a year from now. 690 00:41:34,240 --> 00:41:37,520 They're just looking like, will it likely be revised down and 691 00:41:37,520 --> 00:41:40,240 they just shorted into that. That's what I'm pretty sure was 692 00:41:40,240 --> 00:41:46,320 going on with with offshore was the only real reason that kind 693 00:41:46,320 --> 00:41:53,800 of makes sense to me. Whereas yeah, uranium I I I 694 00:41:53,800 --> 00:41:58,560 thought it was kind of crazy until this whole if they're 695 00:41:58,560 --> 00:42:01,960 bidding that obviously sports going to have to sell pounds. 696 00:42:01,960 --> 00:42:05,640 That kind of makes it more sense than if they were just bidding 697 00:42:05,640 --> 00:42:10,360 on mine is disappointing. It was interesting that when 698 00:42:10,360 --> 00:42:12,560 some of them did announce and they weren't actually that bad 699 00:42:14,080 --> 00:42:16,640 releases like the likes of boss, there was no covering at all. 700 00:42:16,680 --> 00:42:18,560 If anything, they keep pushing up the short interest. 701 00:42:18,560 --> 00:42:20,560 So it means they're playing for something bigger. 702 00:42:21,000 --> 00:42:24,040 And that actually makes sense that they're playing for sort of 703 00:42:24,040 --> 00:42:31,200 a, a sort of a, a liquidity event, which is it's kind of 704 00:42:31,200 --> 00:42:33,160 crazy. Like the whole uranium set up is 705 00:42:33,160 --> 00:42:34,960 just so ridiculous when you think about it. 706 00:42:35,120 --> 00:42:40,680 You've got this sort of monster demands that's required. 707 00:42:40,680 --> 00:42:46,280 That is 100% certain that it's coming like in the favor out the 708 00:42:46,400 --> 00:42:49,440 more certain you get it because only by the time you get out to 709 00:42:49,440 --> 00:42:55,000 2040, there's like £3.5 billion required and only 40% of that's 710 00:42:55,000 --> 00:42:57,560 contracted. So if you kind of back that back 711 00:42:57,560 --> 00:43:03,360 today, you're going to contract into that is like 200, two £100 712 00:43:03,400 --> 00:43:06,920 million a year. And everyone's getting their 713 00:43:06,920 --> 00:43:11,600 knickers in A twist that the likes of Brought Uranium Trust 714 00:43:11,680 --> 00:43:16,240 whether they've got 606465, they might have to sell sort of a few 715 00:43:16,240 --> 00:43:22,480 £100,000 until the utilities are inevitably forced to come to the 716 00:43:22,480 --> 00:43:25,120 table because there's just not enough around that you can't 717 00:43:25,120 --> 00:43:33,720 operate with a sector where it's 60% uncovered and the miners are 718 00:43:33,720 --> 00:43:41,720 producing 25% under what's what the yearly what the yearly 719 00:43:41,720 --> 00:43:43,400 burners. And this is all like none of 720 00:43:43,400 --> 00:43:46,920 this is like kind of forecasting, like, you know, how 721 00:43:46,920 --> 00:43:50,960 many operating reactors are these are multi multi billion 722 00:43:50,960 --> 00:43:55,480 dollar pieces of equipment that have your animal, the lights go 723 00:43:55,480 --> 00:43:57,800 out and they've been they've been flexing contracts, they've 724 00:43:57,800 --> 00:44:01,120 been working through their inventory and it's all kind of 725 00:44:01,120 --> 00:44:06,760 reached crazy low levels. And so it's, it's the most 726 00:44:06,760 --> 00:44:11,560 absurd thing because it's you've got this almost like a pool of 727 00:44:11,560 --> 00:44:14,600 petrol waiting for a spark for spot to move and and the 728 00:44:15,480 --> 00:44:18,200 utilities to start a contract in size. 729 00:44:18,240 --> 00:44:22,240 And yet you've got no, you've got no futures market or 730 00:44:22,240 --> 00:44:26,600 anything to keep sort of spot market honest. 731 00:44:26,600 --> 00:44:32,440 And yes, but does need to we'll need to raise some money by sort 732 00:44:32,520 --> 00:44:35,600 of halfway through the year. So you could have a sort of a 733 00:44:36,160 --> 00:44:38,000 real sort of a liquidity event there. 734 00:44:38,000 --> 00:44:40,720 And that's obviously what the shortest are pushing for that. 735 00:44:41,040 --> 00:44:42,400 That does make a lot of sense to me. 736 00:44:43,040 --> 00:44:47,280 Yeah, it's, and it's the, the overhang of this, this vehicle 737 00:44:47,280 --> 00:44:50,520 that we thought the pounds were locked up for Infinity forever. 738 00:44:50,560 --> 00:44:54,560 Well, the kind of probably the, the narrative sentiment shift 739 00:44:54,560 --> 00:44:57,680 that can happen when, when you, when, you know, everyone starts 740 00:44:57,680 --> 00:45:00,720 thinking that this vehicle should trade at a, at a 741 00:45:01,400 --> 00:45:03,680 structural discount and have as opposed to ever kind of getting 742 00:45:03,680 --> 00:45:06,760 to the place where it can trade a premium, which allows it to 743 00:45:06,760 --> 00:45:09,480 buy more pounds. Those pounds kind of seem like 744 00:45:09,480 --> 00:45:12,040 they inevitably come to the market in some way, shape or 745 00:45:12,040 --> 00:45:13,880 form once the the narrative shifts that way. 746 00:45:15,080 --> 00:45:18,800 Yeah, yeah, great, innit. But at the same time it's kind 747 00:45:18,800 --> 00:45:22,200 of dangerous game as well because there's as I think boss 748 00:45:22,200 --> 00:45:25,160 on just volume that's like nearly three weeks to cover that 749 00:45:25,400 --> 00:45:29,640 position if they get trapped. And it does any sort of there's 750 00:45:29,640 --> 00:45:34,400 a shift in sentiment people see. It's just everyone's absolute 751 00:45:34,400 --> 00:45:38,480 laser focused on on spot because the market's so opaque. 752 00:45:38,560 --> 00:45:43,640 It's like coming back to Rhodium like it's, it's since there's no 753 00:45:43,640 --> 00:45:47,560 futures, there's no really there's nothing for retail 754 00:45:48,200 --> 00:45:51,160 investors to sort of grasp. There's no information flow 755 00:45:51,160 --> 00:45:54,240 really. It's just a handful of of 756 00:45:54,240 --> 00:45:59,120 buyers. So yeah, it's, it's going to be 757 00:45:59,120 --> 00:46:02,320 fascinating to see how it all plays out longer term for for 758 00:46:02,320 --> 00:46:06,360 me, it reminds me, I often throw this the study round that was 759 00:46:07,400 --> 00:46:10,960 even God would get fired as a active investor. 760 00:46:11,040 --> 00:46:13,520 Then it's this idea that like even if you could see what the 761 00:46:13,520 --> 00:46:18,440 top performing stocks would be five years out, if like the 762 00:46:18,840 --> 00:46:21,920 saying, they're using God just as like you, you knew with 763 00:46:21,920 --> 00:46:26,160 certainty what they would be and you set up a, an active fund, 764 00:46:26,640 --> 00:46:28,760 like God would always get fired because he'd run too much 765 00:46:28,760 --> 00:46:30,760 volatility to get to the outperformance. 766 00:46:31,040 --> 00:46:33,160 And so he'd always get dumped by his investors. 767 00:46:33,520 --> 00:46:36,800 And so many opportunities feel like that at the moment. 768 00:46:36,800 --> 00:46:41,000 Like I can see this dirty pig supply demand gap, but it looks 769 00:46:41,000 --> 00:46:43,120 like it's going to be a really volatile Rd. to get there. 770 00:46:43,360 --> 00:46:47,080 And I don't know how many retailers actually have the 771 00:46:47,080 --> 00:46:52,720 stomach to, to work through it. And whether like when you point 772 00:46:52,720 --> 00:46:55,560 this sort of a set up out is I've, I've got some friends that 773 00:46:55,560 --> 00:46:59,920 have said I'll just go to 50% cash and wait for the the event 774 00:46:59,920 --> 00:47:02,480 to happen, then pile in there kind of like waiting for a, a 775 00:47:02,880 --> 00:47:07,320 COVID type, like kind of just an absolute liquidity squeeze down. 776 00:47:08,040 --> 00:47:11,640 And yeah, I don't know if that's smart either. 777 00:47:12,280 --> 00:47:15,800 Do you think the if the spot copes going down or even stays 778 00:47:15,800 --> 00:47:20,800 where it is at 6350, do you think developers and producers 779 00:47:20,800 --> 00:47:24,640 are going to start looking at securing strategic inventory 780 00:47:25,120 --> 00:47:27,720 again out of the spot market possibly? 781 00:47:29,440 --> 00:47:32,640 Possibly, yeah, I'd be a lot smarter than what they did. 782 00:47:32,720 --> 00:47:36,360 Like securing a sort of in the hunger recent highs. 783 00:47:36,600 --> 00:47:39,640 Yeah, hundreds of people. Just tried after a couple of 784 00:47:39,640 --> 00:47:41,480 rides. Exactly. 785 00:47:41,560 --> 00:47:43,640 Yeah, No, it would make more sense. 786 00:47:44,960 --> 00:47:47,720 It's just, Yeah, even even saying that it's such a funny 787 00:47:47,720 --> 00:47:50,800 game of, like, musical cheers where everyone knows there's not 788 00:47:50,800 --> 00:47:52,680 enough cheers in the middle and the music's just going to stop 789 00:47:52,680 --> 00:47:56,320 eventually. It's when you look at the bigger 790 00:47:56,320 --> 00:48:00,080 figures. It's just, yeah, I don't know. 791 00:48:00,080 --> 00:48:02,560 I don't have any smart insights on what's going to play out in 792 00:48:02,560 --> 00:48:05,560 the next few months. I'm just always like my mentor 793 00:48:06,160 --> 00:48:08,440 whenever I say anything like this is like, sounds like you've 794 00:48:08,440 --> 00:48:10,040 been too smart. Where's it going to be in five 795 00:48:10,040 --> 00:48:15,360 years and almost just ride it through to that and you just 796 00:48:15,360 --> 00:48:16,720 cause yourself so much heartache. 797 00:48:16,720 --> 00:48:20,440 If you're trying to trade the market a few months ahead, it's 798 00:48:20,440 --> 00:48:24,320 just no one could do it and you lose your sanity trying to do 799 00:48:24,320 --> 00:48:26,840 it. I don't think I've ever it's 800 00:48:27,360 --> 00:48:28,840 actually been the worst thing that's happened to me. 801 00:48:28,840 --> 00:48:33,360 Sometimes I've like I one that was pure luck. 802 00:48:33,360 --> 00:48:37,800 Like I put out a whole thesis around Peabody about how coal, 803 00:48:39,440 --> 00:48:42,880 how big the supply demand get was, how cheap it was, how it's 804 00:48:42,880 --> 00:48:46,120 going to be a fantastic investment. 805 00:48:46,680 --> 00:48:50,440 Put it out on Crux as years ago. And then Russia invaded and 806 00:48:51,200 --> 00:48:53,120 obviously coal prices went through the roof and everyone 807 00:48:53,120 --> 00:48:55,920 was like that was that was you were spot on. 808 00:48:55,920 --> 00:48:57,880 And I was like, no, it wasn't spot on at all. 809 00:48:58,280 --> 00:49:00,480 It was just I just got lucky like that. 810 00:49:01,880 --> 00:49:07,680 And yeah, I feel like a a lot of that is just understanding that 811 00:49:08,840 --> 00:49:12,640 the long term fundamental thesis is there, but you kind of have 812 00:49:12,640 --> 00:49:15,960 an understanding that deeply and you can have a rough ride some 813 00:49:15,960 --> 00:49:17,680 of this. And that's why I kind of really 814 00:49:17,680 --> 00:49:20,600 am attractive at the moment to stuff that's not correlated. 815 00:49:20,600 --> 00:49:23,960 Like probably most painful lesson is how correlated uranium 816 00:49:23,960 --> 00:49:28,840 and offshore oil have been like just having the correlation all 817 00:49:28,840 --> 00:49:32,520 just seem to go to one. But they will just trade next to 818 00:49:32,520 --> 00:49:34,280 each other and a big chunk of the portfolio. 819 00:49:34,280 --> 00:49:38,840 So that was just pure pain. And whereas like if I map out 820 00:49:38,840 --> 00:49:41,600 some of the my more recent investments, like I've got some 821 00:49:42,240 --> 00:49:45,280 tiny little like OSV shipbuilders that went bankrupt 822 00:49:45,280 --> 00:49:49,560 twice, Rhodium, Middle 6, they're all doing Chinese tech. 823 00:49:49,600 --> 00:49:52,560 They're all absolutely ripping this year and well, and they're 824 00:49:52,560 --> 00:49:55,080 kind of helping offset some of the pain and offshore. 825 00:49:56,840 --> 00:49:58,520 So yeah, just focusing more on that. 826 00:49:59,320 --> 00:50:03,360 There's some non correlated bits which is a lot harder than it 827 00:50:03,360 --> 00:50:05,760 sounds. Do you think just to close the 828 00:50:05,760 --> 00:50:08,360 Uranium One off, like do you think it's just going to be 829 00:50:08,360 --> 00:50:12,880 rough ride until we see a lot of, because these reactor builds 830 00:50:12,880 --> 00:50:14,960 obviously take a while. Like China's probably the 831 00:50:14,960 --> 00:50:17,480 quickest atom. But getting to the point where 832 00:50:17,480 --> 00:50:20,360 so many are starting to come online, they need the initial 833 00:50:20,560 --> 00:50:24,320 one and a half million pounds to charge the reactor. 834 00:50:24,520 --> 00:50:28,280 And once that starts building up, do you think it's just going 835 00:50:28,280 --> 00:50:31,600 to be a rocky ride until then? Because a lot of it's all under 836 00:50:31,600 --> 00:50:35,680 construction on the way. But there's not, to my 837 00:50:35,680 --> 00:50:37,680 knowledge, not shit loads of charging yet. 838 00:50:37,680 --> 00:50:40,360 But it will come when China are building 10 a year. 839 00:50:41,800 --> 00:50:44,720 Yes, Mike Alcon's always been vocal on this is that you don't, 840 00:50:44,720 --> 00:50:50,040 you don't need a additional like just just the operating fleet. 841 00:50:50,040 --> 00:50:55,440 There's a is we don't have sufficient pounds on that and 842 00:50:55,440 --> 00:50:58,120 and under construction, but as you say, everyone that comes on 843 00:50:58,280 --> 00:51:02,040 and you need what is it 2 to three times the initial core 844 00:51:02,040 --> 00:51:06,200 loading verse maintenance. So that is like a sort of a just 845 00:51:06,200 --> 00:51:09,040 bumps demand would be a very additional wrecked around the 846 00:51:09,040 --> 00:51:11,280 construction that comes on. Granted they've already 847 00:51:11,560 --> 00:51:13,760 purchased it when you're starting construction. 848 00:51:14,200 --> 00:51:19,440 So, yeah, so you're going to be complete. 849 00:51:19,440 --> 00:51:22,160 And then yeah, yeah, they've got nothing to put in it. 850 00:51:22,160 --> 00:51:27,320 Yeah, they're I, yeah. I just think everyone's tearing 851 00:51:27,320 --> 00:51:30,280 their hair out because of the, you know, pakeness of it. 852 00:51:30,280 --> 00:51:35,440 And, and yeah, as you say now with what everyone's latching 853 00:51:35,440 --> 00:51:40,080 onto is any name you look at, you've got a whole lot of short 854 00:51:40,080 --> 00:51:43,320 interest that is being the smarter money. 855 00:51:43,320 --> 00:51:51,560 And yeah, a sort of an event now by sort of June, it's supposedly 856 00:51:52,840 --> 00:51:54,680 spots going to have to liquidate some pounds. 857 00:51:54,720 --> 00:51:59,600 But yeah, as a sort of ran for the numbers that doesn't change 858 00:51:59,600 --> 00:52:04,680 the overall outlook whatsoever and that demands going to to me 859 00:52:04,680 --> 00:52:07,440 they're very pulled pretty much every lever they can. 860 00:52:07,440 --> 00:52:11,200 There's inventories are all record low. 861 00:52:11,280 --> 00:52:13,440 They've got to get the uranium through the fuel cycle, which 862 00:52:13,440 --> 00:52:17,960 takes, it takes a few years. It's not just sort of take it 863 00:52:17,960 --> 00:52:21,440 from the mind to the reactors. There's a whole fuel fuel cycle 864 00:52:21,440 --> 00:52:24,800 there. There's been, if you look at all 865 00:52:24,800 --> 00:52:27,280 the stages of the fuel cycle, that's all been rocketing 866 00:52:27,280 --> 00:52:30,040 higher. So yeah, I feel like this is 867 00:52:30,040 --> 00:52:32,520 kind of like a mass extinction event for all the retail 868 00:52:32,520 --> 00:52:34,400 investors in it. You've got to get them out 869 00:52:34,400 --> 00:52:38,520 before it can then run. And when that run happens I've 870 00:52:38,520 --> 00:52:41,560 got no idea, but I I want to be there for the start of it. 871 00:52:43,000 --> 00:52:48,440 Chinese tech Ferg very yeah hated sector even like 12 months 872 00:52:48,440 --> 00:52:52,560 ago. Things changed briefly when 873 00:52:52,920 --> 00:52:57,360 David Tepper came out and was banging the table last year. 874 00:52:57,360 --> 00:53:01,600 And then like after after really soaring off its base, like 875 00:53:01,600 --> 00:53:04,600 peeled back a lot of the gains. And then December, like the 876 00:53:04,600 --> 00:53:06,480 stocks were trading kind of like similar to where they were 877 00:53:06,480 --> 00:53:08,120 before that. And then they then they rocketed 878 00:53:08,120 --> 00:53:10,960 again. Like, well, markets, sometimes 879 00:53:10,960 --> 00:53:14,400 they take the path of like Max Payne always. 880 00:53:16,080 --> 00:53:19,880 You still still think still think Chinese tech is is pretty 881 00:53:19,880 --> 00:53:23,120 undervalued here? Yeah, this is my biggest 882 00:53:23,120 --> 00:53:26,800 position, position of taking in one in whack, 1 whack really. 883 00:53:26,960 --> 00:53:31,040 And so is it has even been reinforced. 884 00:53:31,480 --> 00:53:35,520 Anyone that hasn't had a chance to go and read American America 885 00:53:35,520 --> 00:53:39,920 First investment policy that was released by the White House a 886 00:53:39,920 --> 00:53:44,520 week or two ago and this is section in it and where and they 887 00:53:44,520 --> 00:53:49,760 are reviewing removing the it's the can't remember what it's 888 00:53:49,760 --> 00:53:51,360 called. Anyway, it's a treaty with China 889 00:53:51,520 --> 00:53:55,680 that they can essentially invest in US assets with 0 tax. 890 00:53:56,040 --> 00:53:59,120 And if they remove the treaty, they go from zero to 30% 891 00:53:59,120 --> 00:54:02,280 withholding. And it's pretty damn significant 892 00:54:02,280 --> 00:54:08,160 when you consider China holds 2 trillion of US assets and about 893 00:54:08,760 --> 00:54:13,080 760 billion of that is in US equities, which is kind of 894 00:54:13,080 --> 00:54:16,440 fascinating when US equities before this announcement were 895 00:54:16,440 --> 00:54:20,160 already particularly MAG 7 and NASDAQ were kind of struggling 896 00:54:20,160 --> 00:54:25,520 to find their marginal buyer. And the US has just told them 897 00:54:25,520 --> 00:54:26,640 to. I've got I've got a piece in the 898 00:54:26,960 --> 00:54:28,760 works at the moment. It's just telling the Chinese to 899 00:54:28,760 --> 00:54:30,760 get the fuck out. Like just out you go. 900 00:54:31,040 --> 00:54:33,720 Your capital is no longer sort of welcome. 901 00:54:34,240 --> 00:54:38,920 And as part of them having to, they can't fix the trade balance 902 00:54:38,920 --> 00:54:41,840 without fixing capital flows. Like you can't just have money 903 00:54:41,840 --> 00:54:43,840 keep flowing in if you're trying to fix your trade balance 904 00:54:43,840 --> 00:54:50,280 because it doesn't work. And that's the question there is 905 00:54:50,280 --> 00:54:52,760 if they're going to tell that capital that 2 trillion sort of 906 00:54:52,920 --> 00:55:00,240 pretty much 760 of equities and seven, I think it's roughly the 907 00:55:00,240 --> 00:55:04,640 same in Treasuries to, to get out of the US, where where's 908 00:55:04,640 --> 00:55:08,120 that capital going to flow? And China's doing massive trade 909 00:55:08,120 --> 00:55:10,120 surpluses. So if they can no longer pour 910 00:55:10,120 --> 00:55:14,560 money into US equities, where's it going to go? 911 00:55:14,560 --> 00:55:17,920 And I kind of reach 2 conclusions as two kind of 912 00:55:17,920 --> 00:55:19,760 obvious spots for it to start flowing. 913 00:55:19,760 --> 00:55:25,920 It's either they're gold, which is got a whole piece on that 914 00:55:25,920 --> 00:55:29,040 going through this just massive gap between gold and the gold 915 00:55:29,040 --> 00:55:34,080 miners, which is just getting absolutely ridiculous and and 916 00:55:34,120 --> 00:55:35,840 sort of their own equities essentially. 917 00:55:35,840 --> 00:55:41,040 And that's you, you, it's always been sort of a, a good rule of 918 00:55:41,040 --> 00:55:42,840 farmers. You want to be in front of, you 919 00:55:42,840 --> 00:55:45,240 want, you want what the Chinese want, you want to be sort of 920 00:55:45,240 --> 00:55:48,200 front running Chinese money. And that's when I go through My 921 00:55:48,200 --> 00:55:50,240 Portfolio. I wrote a piece recently that 922 00:55:50,240 --> 00:55:54,840 was like, I just want to make sure every area I'm in, there's 923 00:55:54,840 --> 00:55:57,320 some strong Chinese demand. I don't want to be fighting the 924 00:55:57,440 --> 00:56:00,240 Chinese in any area. That's why I wrote one piece on 925 00:56:00,240 --> 00:56:02,640 sort of shipbuilding because I've got a few shipbuilding 926 00:56:02,640 --> 00:56:05,480 investments and I'm like, am I competing with the Chinese here? 927 00:56:05,480 --> 00:56:08,560 Because I'll probably get my ass handed to me if that's the case. 928 00:56:09,400 --> 00:56:13,080 And yeah, I just love it. Love the Chinese tech angle. 929 00:56:13,160 --> 00:56:15,920 I wanted sort of a broad basket to catch all their national 930 00:56:15,920 --> 00:56:19,800 champions, like going to the the back to the EV space when they 931 00:56:19,880 --> 00:56:23,440 went from sort of 400 to 70 players. 932 00:56:24,000 --> 00:56:27,960 And now the the champion out of that, just no one's going to be 933 00:56:27,960 --> 00:56:29,280 able to compete with them globally. 934 00:56:29,280 --> 00:56:31,440 So they're going to dominate global market share. 935 00:56:31,720 --> 00:56:34,000 And I think we're going to see this across multiple sectors. 936 00:56:34,360 --> 00:56:37,680 And it's kind of absurd that they're all priced so stupidly 937 00:56:37,680 --> 00:56:39,120 cheap by some of these companies. 938 00:56:39,200 --> 00:56:41,840 We've got like 1/4 of their market cap and cash. 939 00:56:41,840 --> 00:56:44,640 They're trading it like before the run up, they're trading at 940 00:56:44,640 --> 00:56:48,640 like coal market valuations. So I love the trade and I'll 941 00:56:48,640 --> 00:56:50,760 probably be on the trade for a decade I'm assuming. 942 00:56:52,600 --> 00:56:57,440 China maybe three years ago cracked down pretty hard as, as 943 00:56:57,440 --> 00:57:00,120 I'm sure you're aware, on on lots of different industries. 944 00:57:00,120 --> 00:57:03,960 And you know, almost overnight they obliterated like parts of 945 00:57:03,960 --> 00:57:05,720 the education education take part. 946 00:57:05,720 --> 00:57:09,760 And around the time that like Jack Ma went, went missing for a 947 00:57:09,760 --> 00:57:13,200 little while, But he's he's back in vogue and he's good friends 948 00:57:13,200 --> 00:57:16,960 with XI again. And the whole attitude in China 949 00:57:16,960 --> 00:57:20,480 towards their national champions has really changed. 950 00:57:20,480 --> 00:57:24,320 How do you just think, I guess, broadly about your your property 951 00:57:24,320 --> 00:57:26,000 rights? Do you just balance that with 952 00:57:26,000 --> 00:57:31,080 being being so supportive in valuation with the cash balances 953 00:57:31,080 --> 00:57:33,680 that you speak about? Does that give you real support 954 00:57:33,680 --> 00:57:37,720 And now with the CCP on on side with a lot of these companies? 955 00:57:38,600 --> 00:57:43,760 You often that that later party, like we said, CP being on side 956 00:57:43,760 --> 00:57:47,000 is the key factor. So they they have to like one of 957 00:57:47,000 --> 00:57:49,800 my favourite charts is from Louis Vincent Garth where he's 958 00:57:49,800 --> 00:57:53,240 just showing that everyone is still so focused on the property 959 00:57:53,240 --> 00:57:58,960 bust and they haven't realized that the loans in total to 960 00:57:59,080 --> 00:58:01,560 manufacturing are almost equivalent. 961 00:58:01,560 --> 00:58:06,320 I think yeah, they're just below sort of peak property loans. 962 00:58:06,320 --> 00:58:11,320 And so they've just, they've poured absolute trillions into 963 00:58:12,240 --> 00:58:14,280 building up their manufacturing champions. 964 00:58:14,680 --> 00:58:17,120 And so it doesn't make any sense why they would sort of harm 965 00:58:17,120 --> 00:58:18,280 them. They're actually just pushing 966 00:58:18,280 --> 00:58:21,080 sort of they want free trade globally because they know 967 00:58:21,080 --> 00:58:24,840 they're the most competitive. Like, why would they put, why 968 00:58:24,840 --> 00:58:29,080 would they try and damage that? And this is largely because 969 00:58:29,440 --> 00:58:30,880 China's kind of changed its game. 970 00:58:30,880 --> 00:58:34,760 When you, when you think about the China for the last few 971 00:58:34,760 --> 00:58:40,120 decades, it was creating enough growth to provide employment for 972 00:58:40,360 --> 00:58:44,840 enough people per year. So they, they, it was kind of a 973 00:58:44,840 --> 00:58:47,800 seem to be a rule of thumb that if they could create sort of 8% 974 00:58:47,800 --> 00:58:52,280 growth, they could employ 678 million people per year and left 975 00:58:52,280 --> 00:58:54,600 amount of poverty. Well, they, they know not longer 976 00:58:54,600 --> 00:58:56,400 need to do that. Their demographics have rolled 977 00:58:56,400 --> 00:58:59,920 over and so now the game is they need to keep providing higher 978 00:58:59,920 --> 00:59:05,160 paying jobs for their workforce and kind of fight this sort of 979 00:59:05,160 --> 00:59:08,720 declining workforce. Like it's then interestingly 980 00:59:08,720 --> 00:59:14,000 enough, they're one of the biggest investors in in robotics 981 00:59:14,000 --> 00:59:17,760 where everyone sort of if if you don't show someone that chart, 982 00:59:17,760 --> 00:59:19,720 they always assume it's like Japan or somewhere else, but 983 00:59:19,800 --> 00:59:23,280 it's actually China. And so I think they're going to 984 00:59:23,280 --> 00:59:28,040 do everything to nurture this this of industries. 985 00:59:28,040 --> 00:59:34,000 They Chinese have a lot of cash and than notorious momentum 986 00:59:34,000 --> 00:59:36,080 investors. And so I think now that the 987 00:59:36,080 --> 00:59:40,320 property bubble's done that those flows are going to divert 988 00:59:40,640 --> 00:59:44,640 into their own certain national champions and that could give it 989 00:59:45,000 --> 00:59:48,000 a very long runway. It's going to be incentivized by 990 00:59:48,000 --> 00:59:53,120 the CCP and they're also talking of sort of stimulus to help get 991 00:59:53,120 --> 00:59:57,840 it help keep momentum. And once they announce stimulus, 992 00:59:58,680 --> 01:00:01,160 they don't want you to sort of. Lose face. 993 01:00:01,360 --> 01:00:04,840 And so I think I think it's a very robust trend and everyone's 994 01:00:04,840 --> 01:00:07,520 just kind of suffering from what we talked about with them. 995 01:00:07,520 --> 01:00:11,720 A lot of the Chinese tech been made to do national service and 996 01:00:11,720 --> 01:00:16,240 almost been sort of rug pulled by international interests over 997 01:00:16,240 --> 01:00:24,560 sort of their overall sort of profit motivated the actual for 998 01:00:24,560 --> 01:00:26,320 the shareholders. But I think I think that's 999 01:00:26,320 --> 01:00:31,440 changed. Last one from me, Ferg, the the 1000 01:00:31,440 --> 01:00:35,080 valuations in gold you just touched on before, the massive 1001 01:00:35,080 --> 01:00:38,760 diversions between the underlying and the, the some of 1002 01:00:38,760 --> 01:00:41,320 the gold stocks is super, super interesting. 1003 01:00:41,320 --> 01:00:45,600 So obviously a commodity that's not hated where you tend to kind 1004 01:00:45,600 --> 01:00:49,840 of play, but we just haven't seen the equities follow the 1005 01:00:49,840 --> 01:00:52,440 underlying to the same extent. How do you think about that? 1006 01:00:52,440 --> 01:00:54,680 How do you kind of position yourself for that today? 1007 01:00:56,200 --> 01:00:58,800 Yeah, So that's, that's probably the most interesting divergent 1008 01:00:58,800 --> 01:01:00,560 at the moment because it just keeps getting wider. 1009 01:01:01,120 --> 01:01:05,680 And what's fascinating is there is literally 0 investor 1010 01:01:05,680 --> 01:01:08,320 interest. So you can, you can track this 1011 01:01:08,320 --> 01:01:12,560 yourself if you just, you just jump on Google and type like 1012 01:01:12,560 --> 01:01:19,400 inflows into the likes of GDXGDXJ or even G GLD, like just 1013 01:01:19,400 --> 01:01:22,960 a straight gold ETF. It's it's not actually getting 1014 01:01:24,120 --> 01:01:25,720 any inflows. If you take it back for years, 1015 01:01:25,720 --> 01:01:29,680 it's still negative. A few billion GDX is obviously 1016 01:01:29,680 --> 01:01:34,280 more negative and GDXJ just a bloodbath. 1017 01:01:35,160 --> 01:01:39,920 And what's fascinating is even with gold's recent performance, 1018 01:01:39,920 --> 01:01:45,800 if you bring up, I know GDXJ hasn't even had a single single 1019 01:01:45,800 --> 01:01:50,240 day of inflows for six months, which is kind of absurd when you 1020 01:01:50,240 --> 01:01:54,680 consider what gold's the price performance of told itself. 1021 01:01:54,680 --> 01:01:58,200 And so what's going on here is it's obviously central bank 1022 01:01:58,960 --> 01:02:01,240 buying. It's not actually any interest 1023 01:02:01,240 --> 01:02:04,560 from investors today or investors that are trying to 1024 01:02:04,840 --> 01:02:10,880 probably pick up physical and not playing it through through 1025 01:02:10,880 --> 01:02:17,240 sort of ETFs. Will this change will say come 1026 01:02:17,240 --> 01:02:20,480 ahead? So I'm kind of in a few mines 1027 01:02:20,480 --> 01:02:21,720 with it. And the fact that like what's 1028 01:02:21,720 --> 01:02:24,160 going to actually turn, like the charts are beautiful. 1029 01:02:24,160 --> 01:02:27,920 If you do the ratios, you can look at sort of earnings per 1030 01:02:27,920 --> 01:02:30,080 share for the gold miners. It keeps climbing higher. 1031 01:02:30,400 --> 01:02:34,160 But at the same time, miners being miners, they're all their 1032 01:02:34,160 --> 01:02:37,840 mud, They're all the sustaining cost margins are just blowing 1033 01:02:37,840 --> 01:02:40,320 out as well. Got a chart in 2024 where it's 1034 01:02:40,320 --> 01:02:42,720 just like a massive spike and there's just like taking away 1035 01:02:42,720 --> 01:02:45,600 all the profits you'd think you'd get from being and best in 1036 01:02:45,600 --> 01:02:55,400 gold miners and it's I think what's probably the probability 1037 01:02:55,400 --> 01:02:57,840 in my mind is that goal is probably going to be revalued 1038 01:02:57,880 --> 01:03:02,720 significantly and that will bring investor attention back to 1039 01:03:02,720 --> 01:03:04,920 it because the gap will just get silly. 1040 01:03:05,440 --> 01:03:09,120 And also once we experience some inflation, a lot of the crypto 1041 01:03:11,680 --> 01:03:14,080 crypto projects will trade towards their intrinsic value 1042 01:03:14,440 --> 01:03:19,520 and people have to start it's a. Polite way of saying 0. 1043 01:03:20,600 --> 01:03:22,480 Yeah. And yeah, people have to 1044 01:03:22,480 --> 01:03:27,200 actually start concentrating on something with some, some 1045 01:03:27,280 --> 01:03:30,880 economic use case because I think crypto didn't really 1046 01:03:30,880 --> 01:03:35,040 replace a lot of like what was speculation in junior miners. 1047 01:03:35,320 --> 01:03:39,520 Like the I've got 1 chart that's like all junior mining. 1048 01:03:40,120 --> 01:03:42,320 The whole junior mining space, if you can peer it back to the 1049 01:03:42,320 --> 01:03:46,320 1990s was like 50% of the entire mining market. 1050 01:03:46,320 --> 01:03:49,400 Now it's like sub 20. So it's just been absolutely 1051 01:03:49,400 --> 01:03:52,760 decimated. And yet there's chart after 1052 01:03:52,760 --> 01:03:56,160 chart where you you pull out the supply demand picture and it 1053 01:03:56,160 --> 01:03:59,440 just falls off a Cliff out in the 2000 and 30s. 1054 01:03:59,480 --> 01:04:01,280 And there's kind of like uranium. 1055 01:04:01,280 --> 01:04:05,760 There's there's actually a need for Greenfield and but yeah, 1056 01:04:05,760 --> 01:04:09,320 coming back to gold, it's it's just tough to play. 1057 01:04:09,800 --> 01:04:15,600 But I think it is, yeah. A very just how hated the the 1058 01:04:15,600 --> 01:04:18,120 junior gold miners are is kind of a fascinating set up here. 1059 01:04:18,120 --> 01:04:21,080 And it's quite uncorrelated to a lot of other stuff as well, 1060 01:04:21,080 --> 01:04:24,280 which I like. On the for the producers like 1061 01:04:24,280 --> 01:04:28,040 the things with you compare gold on or for instance, like golds, 1062 01:04:29,600 --> 01:04:32,080 the costs rise because they always got to be doing more 1063 01:04:32,080 --> 01:04:35,480 capital to get deeper or do a cutback or or whatever. 1064 01:04:35,480 --> 01:04:38,280 Like you think of the some of the best producing gold mines in 1065 01:04:38,280 --> 01:04:41,400 Australia in history, like you Telfer in the heyday, Katie 1066 01:04:41,600 --> 01:04:47,400 Boddington, like those long life set up specifically Telfer and 1067 01:04:47,680 --> 01:04:51,400 Cadia or Cadia as a block cave. But you just don't see as much 1068 01:04:51,400 --> 01:04:53,800 of it now because they're obviously wanting the gold now. 1069 01:04:53,800 --> 01:04:56,440 So they'll go for the the quickest way to get there. 1070 01:04:56,440 --> 01:05:00,440 But these big doesn't feel like these big massive long life 1071 01:05:00,800 --> 01:05:05,520 operations are being set up to be low cost producers during 1072 01:05:05,520 --> 01:05:09,240 those environments. Like which ones do you do you 1073 01:05:09,240 --> 01:05:13,560 pick for that? Because technically shouldn't. 1074 01:05:13,560 --> 01:05:16,120 You might be just making shit loads of cash on these long life 1075 01:05:16,120 --> 01:05:20,480 assets but that's been hammered. Yeah, yeah, you'd think it's 1076 01:05:20,480 --> 01:05:24,000 honestly like I go through it and subscribe to some people 1077 01:05:24,000 --> 01:05:27,400 that gold pickers and it's literally one of the hardest 1078 01:05:27,400 --> 01:05:30,480 markets. Like I just, I increasingly 1079 01:05:30,480 --> 01:05:32,720 coming towards it as like you just got to have like a kind of 1080 01:05:32,880 --> 01:05:36,120 similar to like a VC portfolio where you just have a basket and 1081 01:05:36,720 --> 01:05:39,280 you assume there'll be some real out performers and then you 1082 01:05:39,280 --> 01:05:42,400 don't try and pick winners because it's it's just too hard. 1083 01:05:42,520 --> 01:05:47,080 And my, my record of picking like winners within mining has 1084 01:05:47,080 --> 01:05:49,280 been pretty unblemished by success overall. 1085 01:05:49,640 --> 01:05:51,560 So I don't want to play that game. 1086 01:05:51,720 --> 01:05:54,640 I like what I try to find smarter, smarter angles. 1087 01:05:54,640 --> 01:05:57,960 Or if I am going to go in a minor, I want a real, a real 1088 01:05:57,960 --> 01:06:02,600 unique setup that I think I can like something being kind of 1089 01:06:02,640 --> 01:06:07,760 spun out of a major or some someone off event that really 1090 01:06:07,760 --> 01:06:11,160 sets you up nicely. But yeah, like what what you're 1091 01:06:11,160 --> 01:06:14,200 just talking about, there's this great chart that because gold's 1092 01:06:14,200 --> 01:06:18,080 not under invested in, I think gold's one of the largest, if 1093 01:06:18,080 --> 01:06:20,520 you go through sort of CapEx by mining majors, it's one of the 1094 01:06:20,520 --> 01:06:24,720 largest sort of outlays and yet they've got absolutely nothing 1095 01:06:24,720 --> 01:06:27,200 to show for it. You see kind of the the chart is 1096 01:06:27,200 --> 01:06:30,720 just higher and higher investment in sort of 1097 01:06:30,720 --> 01:06:34,320 exploration CapEx. And the chart of fines is going 1098 01:06:34,320 --> 01:06:35,720 the opposite way. It's just getting lower and 1099 01:06:35,720 --> 01:06:39,480 lower every year. So it's kind of a, it's a 1100 01:06:40,160 --> 01:06:43,560 interest set up and coming back to China where I think with the 1101 01:06:43,560 --> 01:06:47,000 US telling them to get out of all US assets, that's like the 1102 01:06:47,000 --> 01:06:51,400 end of parking capital and treasuries and the obvious 1103 01:06:51,400 --> 01:06:54,160 recipient moving forward is gold. 1104 01:06:54,280 --> 01:06:58,880 And it makes sense that it's kind of in everyone's interest 1105 01:06:59,280 --> 01:07:01,040 that gold gets revalued at some point. 1106 01:07:01,040 --> 01:07:03,200 This is the only asset that doesn't really break, break 1107 01:07:03,200 --> 01:07:06,600 anything. If you if you do, you have like 1108 01:07:06,600 --> 01:07:11,080 a 10X outcome on most commodities, yet you, you screw 1109 01:07:11,080 --> 01:07:14,480 some people up somewhere in the world, like if oil goes up 10X 1110 01:07:14,480 --> 01:07:17,360 and there's going to be a pretty deep recession and a whole lot 1111 01:07:17,360 --> 01:07:21,160 of bad outcomes. But gold is the one that doesn't 1112 01:07:21,160 --> 01:07:22,600 really matter if it's got no use case. 1113 01:07:23,480 --> 01:07:26,200 And so I think on a long enough time frame, gold is going to get 1114 01:07:26,560 --> 01:07:30,640 revalued very significantly. And it means the miners, yeah, 1115 01:07:31,080 --> 01:07:34,360 all things they call the miners should be great performers. 1116 01:07:34,840 --> 01:07:37,840 And like to your point of it being revalued at some point 1117 01:07:37,840 --> 01:07:40,480 because the shit like gold gets produced, that's a lot of wealth 1118 01:07:40,480 --> 01:07:44,360 to store. Yeah, well, a lot of it's stored 1119 01:07:44,360 --> 01:07:47,880 like the US stores it all at a a fraction of it. 1120 01:07:47,920 --> 01:07:51,200 I think they all have it on the books that I forget what it is 1121 01:07:51,200 --> 01:07:54,680 sort of 30 or 40 bucks a an ounce. 1122 01:07:54,680 --> 01:07:57,040 And so they have a big injection if they just revalue it to 1123 01:07:57,040 --> 01:08:02,080 today's pricing, they get nearly a trillion and more if it's it's 1124 01:08:02,080 --> 01:08:07,720 higher at that point of time. But yeah, I, I think, I think 1125 01:08:07,800 --> 01:08:10,720 also I because I didn't touch gold for years, because I always 1126 01:08:10,720 --> 01:08:13,600 saw it as a political metal. Like why would you invest in a 1127 01:08:13,600 --> 01:08:19,359 commodity where supply and demand don't seem to matter for 1128 01:08:19,359 --> 01:08:24,479 the pricing of the commodity? And so every time demand would 1129 01:08:24,479 --> 01:08:27,640 be too high to just issue more paper gold. 1130 01:08:28,240 --> 01:08:32,520 And what I see going on in China now is is going to eventually 1131 01:08:32,520 --> 01:08:36,040 cause the elimination of that paper market because people are 1132 01:08:36,040 --> 01:08:39,160 going to want, if you're going to settle trade in gold, you're 1133 01:08:39,160 --> 01:08:42,080 going to need, you know, one physical gold. 1134 01:08:42,080 --> 01:08:43,640 You're not going to accept some paper. 1135 01:08:44,080 --> 01:08:48,439 And so, yeah, yeah, I think everything longer term is, is 1136 01:08:48,439 --> 01:08:53,720 quite bullish gold. I think that's a welcome spot 1137 01:08:53,720 --> 01:08:55,479 for a lot of people in Washington to leave the 1138 01:08:55,479 --> 01:08:58,080 conversation on. Thanks so much for your time and 1139 01:08:58,080 --> 01:08:59,319 sharing your insights again with us Ferg. 1140 01:08:59,720 --> 01:09:02,319 Thanks Ferg Legend. Love it. 1141 01:09:02,640 --> 01:09:04,279 Always have a voice. Yeah. 1142 01:09:04,279 --> 01:09:06,560 Love the show? Well there we bloody guy. 1143 01:09:06,560 --> 01:09:12,279 Love a good chat with Ferg. As I've said in private combo 1144 01:09:12,960 --> 01:09:15,160 punt when you're punting your money like he does. 1145 01:09:15,160 --> 01:09:19,000 Full time trader but then has such a long term outlook on 1146 01:09:19,160 --> 01:09:22,680 everything and can be settled in things for years like until it 1147 01:09:22,680 --> 01:09:26,520 actually comes to fruition. That's a bit different to my 1148 01:09:26,520 --> 01:09:30,120 techniques of what Trying to flip it for 20% in a week. 1149 01:09:30,760 --> 01:09:34,520 But he's got some patience and that's how he buddy, if it comes 1150 01:09:34,520 --> 01:09:37,920 off, it comes off big, so. Absolutely no big insights from 1151 01:09:37,920 --> 01:09:39,920 that chat, so thank you Trader Ferg. 1152 01:09:39,920 --> 01:09:44,120 Ohh mate, Ferg is possibly coming to the GRX conference he 1153 01:09:44,120 --> 01:09:50,479 reckons in Brisbane May 20th to 22nd. 190 or 160 bucks off your 1154 01:09:50,479 --> 01:09:54,760 tickets if you use the exclusive link in the show notes. 1155 01:09:54,760 --> 01:09:58,840 GRX conference hosted by Ausman and Ausim and bloody. 1156 01:09:58,840 --> 01:10:01,400 There's also the Ausim Underground operators conference 1157 01:10:01,400 --> 01:10:04,600 in Adelaide before that April 7th to 9th. 1158 01:10:04,600 --> 01:10:06,000 Then we've got 100 bucks off there. 1159 01:10:06,000 --> 01:10:08,160 We're just giving shit away here. 1160 01:10:08,160 --> 01:10:11,440 It's brother and like to thank you all the bloody great 1161 01:10:11,440 --> 01:10:15,080 partners at Mineral Mining Services, Grounded Samba Ground 1162 01:10:15,080 --> 01:10:20,040 Sports, CRN Insurance, K Drill, WA Water Balls, Jaro Jahanks, 1163 01:10:20,320 --> 01:10:25,680 Sweet Quattro and Cross Boundary Energy, also known as CBE, also 1164 01:10:25,680 --> 01:10:27,400 known as Tim Taylor. Thank you very much. 1165 01:10:27,440 --> 01:10:31,400 Very money minder. Information contained in this 1166 01:10:31,400 --> 01:10:34,160 episode of Money of Mine is of general nature only and does not 1167 01:10:34,160 --> 01:10:36,800 take into account the objectives, financial situation 1168 01:10:36,840 --> 01:10:38,840 or needs of any particular person. 1169 01:10:39,160 --> 01:10:42,200 Before making any investment decision, you should consult 1170 01:10:42,200 --> 01:10:45,240 with your financial advisor and consider how appropriate the 1171 01:10:45,240 --> 01:10:48,960 advice is to your objectives, financial situation and needs.