Welcome to another episode of the behavioral design podcast
hosted by myself, Simon Seltzer and Allan Holdsworth hailing.
How are you doing? Hi, hi.
I'm doing swell. So I have to ask you when you
were driving to our virtual podcast Studio, any chance you
were texting. And during this time, have you
texted and drive your life? Oh, never me?
No, absolutely not. I as a behavioral scientist, who
knows the the sort of the lure and Temptation.
I always put my phone in the trunk while I'm driving.
So this song is an obvious lie, you know?
Yeah, it is. It's honestly think this is me.
This is like one of those things were, it's very I think hard to
not. Do right?
Like it's one of the things that's very hard not to do even
if you know you shouldn't do it. It's very easy to do.
Yes I think the the we have so many experiences that where we
get away with it that we sort of update the probability of
something terrible happening and we come to this, I don't know
that the this sort of false sense of security where we think
alike. I know how to I can handle this.
But of course, many, many accidents are caused by texting
and driving. And it is not not generally
advisable, regardless of how it feels, how safe it felt like how
like how successfully you feel like you get away with it?
Most of the time? Yeah, well plot twist.
I'm actually recording this episode while currently driving
on the highway. So there's crap.
I hope your eye over in an autonomous vehicle that is doing
all the driving for you. Yes, yes, for sure.
And No, I'm you know obviously not doing that but it's
interesting in terms of the topic and you bring it up
autonomous vehicles. You know that leads us into the
guest of our episode. We spoke to Nick Shader at work
business school is Professor of Behavioral Science, and studies
cognitive and social foundations of rationality and applies.
A real insights to public policy and business.
But yeah, maybe you can tell us Us a bit more about what we
explore with Nick. Yeah, we had a very interesting
chat. All about Behavioral Science
applied to public policy where Behavioral Science might go
wrong according to some and definitely disputed by others.
And then for our product Deep dive, we explore the Behavioral
Science of autonomous vehicles. So, so getting into, like, what
what The Human Side of driving and not driving.
And what are some of the risks that might be unforeseen it in
our Future of autonomous vehicles when everyone is not
driving in their in their self driving cars and and we really
get into his controversial paper with George Lowenstein, who also
known as G low, and who has the best birthday of August 9th, if
I do say so myself. So let's let's enable auto
pilot. Get this episode started at
Troy. I'm very happy to welcome,
Nick's to the behavioural samples, guess welcoming well.
Thanks very much. Thank you so much for having me.
Yeah, we're super excited to talk to you and I think it's
going to be a fun conversation. We're going to, you know, I
think it's one of those conversations where ask what
kind of preparing for it. We were a little bit, you know,
customers surprised that there's a lot of rules we could take
today. I feel like we could ask you all
find out later I mean with roads as well there's this kind of
avenues where to go with this composition literature and so
literal sis so we'll see where we'll go.
I think a nice way to start is that you have had so much
experience when both in Academia and also thinking about how we
can really Bridge understanding and put it to practice.
And it's always interesting to hear what is an example of call.
It Behavioral Science in the wild That comes to mind for you.
Either QB, a kind of terrible example like they will science
and wild gone wrong or gone, right?
Is there some some applied intervention that you think
stands out for you? Well, that's really interesting.
Question, quite difficult actually, there are.
Yeah. So I mean I suppose an example
which is a very, very sort of constrained into specific
example. What we're asking people,
science is really good, is expecting just take.
Everyday, behaviors particular example, might be a personal
assistant interacting with the government website.
For might be somebody doing our Supermarket shopping and taking
that interaction and turning into an experiment.
So that's something I think it's been remarkably successful as
really really have things to do got.
So in fact, we build a whole business on this so this isn't
technology which is the spin out of right University.
They started about 20 years ago. So I'm still starting off with
now but that's that's many Business Leaders based on doing
this and I think it that's that's really cool.
There's gues. Nothing is the one given that
you I'm sure have done a lot of testing experiments is there, is
there, you know, it's hard to choose some sleep basis.
One that kind of come to comes to mind for you.
Yes, I suppose the reason the one of the first we ever did was
with the probably, the largest Sigma X in the UK, there aren't
that many to choose from. We were looking at the question
of pricing. So there, they were saying,
well, we want to reduce our prices this year.
There's a Happy Days introduce our prizes this year by I think
it's like a hundred million pounds or something.
Let's take that out of our current prices.
So where should we do it? We want people, we want people
to think we're cheap cheaper than me there were before, so
where should we do it through the lots of work on that, we
discovered that the best thing to do actually is to spread your
price price, cut broadly, this is Public public knowledge,
these days for expecting broadly not, not put them on particular,
key, key items. But you have to make the fastest
big enough person to between 5 and 10 percent of the people,
notice them, otherwise it's pointless.
And this is a, this is a great strategy, but unfortunately, the
the supermarket concerned with so except so enthusiastic about
it. They started to advertise
putting on a verse there. We doing when it comes, then
their competitors that are right.
That's what they're doing, amazing.
That's not what sort of case of making the world a better and
happier place to it. Says Reggie, something that
really comes Bobby mattered and was a really kind of crisp and
fear inside with a psychological basis to we had a good basic
understanding of why that would be the case.
And so that was kind of scared. I think that was, that was a
little bit fussy. With this way, to be this kind
of approach has been with doing Nick.
You've written about a very interesting topic and there's,
there's a nice intersection between between this and a
segment that we've started doing which is where We pick some
product out in the world and we asked, how would you take this
product and use Behavioral Science very in a very practical
way to improve upon it? And we thought, they'd given
your your opinions and expertise in this area.
It would be perfect to chat with you about it.
And so, the, the products that we picked for you is autonomous
vehicles, very exciting space right now.
But first, I think, before we start improving the product, I
would like to hear what you think.
Is there a any problem to be solved here?
What are there any issues with autonomous vehicles aside from
the technology itself, right? Yeah, yeah, absolutely.
I think they're, this is a really massive human factors
Challenge and it's really, that's what I think.
We're all completely. All the real problems lie in the
interaction of autonomous vehicles and humans.
If there were no humans on the roses worth of just touch on
this vehicle fishing around, they would be a piece of cake.
Ready, you've taken communicate with each other?
They can get into. Little lines.
They would never hit each other. We could keep the roads.
Nice and clear, clear of children and bicycles.
And it would be, it would be. It would be very easy technology
to roll out but all the usual as usual humans, are the problem.
Yeah. And so, I think the computer
vision is now pretty damn good. Avoid obstacles.
That's an amazing achievement. That is kind of dumb intern
degree anyway and also just knowing where enough you are and
be able to relate that to the landscape around you to pinpoint
your location. That's a very ample all the
navigational stuff is again, we take it for granted but that's a
massive achievement but the problem is left, is this problem
of interacting with people? And I suppose I'm a color to
couple things and there are many many problems.
But let me just focus on to one is as it can possibly as a
driver disciplines. Vehicle their quotes driver.
If I have any involvement at all, how do we shift to me, John
vehicle, and in the vehicle being in charge?
And that's a really hard problem to a lot.
A lot of the discussion has to sort of the rough luck ruff's of
division of labor sort of approach, which is saying, well,
if you just go on a Motorway, you're going to be easy.
The vehicle just handle and you can give me the book, and you
can see how sleep whatever you like.
On the other, we're doing some tricky, riving some Fitted so
traffic flow comes along or you're in several urban area or
whatever it is or there's an accident then you need to take
over and and that's that's great.
Except for the fact that you have to manage that for us to
take me over and that's really hard.
So this is nothing. I've said already but for people
who have come look at this, the process by which you familiarize
someone with a difficult Road situation from scratch is a slow
process. So here I am to reading my books
and well actually I'm in love and suddenly, there's some
incident ahead of me. Bitola cowers under the road or
something so they have assistance of, right?
Okay. We need human involved here and
I'm like, I'm like I'm so really my book idea where I have a
little what's going on and how fast we Goin, uh, that I want
the problems. I do know there's a problem, so
there's one side, so I guess we'll have to set a panic to
think. Oh my goodness.
Something some serious driving is required here because because
for some reason, the car can't handle it, and I'm going to
highlight my and this is a, this isn't something we should take C
appears and experiments of the order of a minute.
Maybe a little bit quicker. I'm talking about the order of
minutes to hand over control and that's just way too slow.
Yeah, I think the problem here is that, if you, they've
essentially represented to me, it does rules out the
possibility of going to be have autonomous driving in such a
crowded spaces with a little things going on.
I think you can. So totally imagine.
It's actually for certain how the motorway driving,
particularly have dedicated Lanes, but even the dead without
that, then you may well be. It may be possible to have to
draw the hand control and to slowly.
If we have Hope you have enough notice of crises that are
occurring in the part time work for you.
Would you can, you can take take, take, take, take, take the
control back to the person that's needed, but for any other
pretty much any other scenario. I think it's essentially
hopeless and I think this is a kind of screaming me serious
problem, which I think the fields is just kind of, always,
always try to hide from and so I think that's one is really
difficult to solve that problem. Yeah, go go ahead, please.
One brother problem that. I've personally noticed is that
I was recently driving this fancy electric car that had
pretty good navigation system that allow for both managing
speed and also the stay in the lanes.
And one Quirk that I hadn't thought about before was to
study of that. I worked a lot in researching
habits and understanding how we design for how much conditioning
in practice and aging thing with the cards that is very
contextually, stable environment.
You're if you're driving a car, you're always kind of As
expected to push down the throttle if you want to.
Guess if any of you want to stay or you just hearing you haven't
really, you know, changing that. However, suddenly you're
expected to sometimes, not do that and sometimes do it and
sometimes fear and not sounds not stare.
And I noticed myself in which after having gone on a highway
and then going into a more urban area to almost forgetting to
stare like Ayo. I realize that, oh, even for
this Very minimal, contextual change here.
I kind of thought that, okay? Male my brain was thinking, you
know, okay maybe the habit now is to not have to steer.
Yeah, that's really interesting to handle that and that's so
true. Isn't it from habit?
Formation? For two years is pretty tricky
and it's going to be especially tricky and environments which
are kind of intermediate so if we were in a kind of a built-up
area but it's a big double lane road.
You maybe you think? Oh yeah.
Double lane road. Yeah, like hands off the wheel.
In fact, you know you need to be paying attention.
Yes. But you're quite right.
That's quite a serious problem. They're related issue on the
same thing, but a similar one is the problem of the that Abby's
killing to. Because if you're in a car all
the time, your continue doing my crew steering adjustments,
you're getting good at getting good at and maintaining that
skill because it's the only time you ever we do that.
We literally occasionally the more occasional that comes the
best. The system gets of the worst you
the less need you. The worst Ruby, but he doesn't
need you. You're gonna be hopeless.
Mmm. Yeah, those are credits as well.
This is a yellow, third thing that you know that the more the
better the system is the more desperate situation is.
If you're caught brought into human, which is pretty
terrified. Because all I know is I do where
I am, but I do know, something really bad is happening, and I
go do something quite complicated that the cartel do
and that's that's not going to lead to the best decision
making. I think it's exactly this is Uh,
yeah, this is a really, really hard hard difficult problem so
and the other one, definitely nothing.
There are two, these are lots of these, but I think the other one
I think is really serious and difficult to manage is the
interaction between the vehicle and other Road users.
So let's just say our vehicles for now but it could be
pedestrians and cyclists on well.
And then what I'm going to do want to focus on particularly is
it something that I've done a lot of work on with Jennifer
miss you he was a longtime postdoc at Warwick we had a
project. Act now funded by Jaguar, Land
Rover. The EPS rc1 with UK funding
council is looking at the feasibility of autonomous
driving a big team of all the people for Jennifer and I will
focus on question. How are you going to manage
these interactions between autonomous vehicles and and
regular vehicles? And the problem I think is that
that when we're dealing with human drivers, one human drugs
for mother often a matter of she would drive to a pedestrian.
If we, we understand that the interaction were engaging in is
a Ready. Social interaction.
What I mean by that is if for example, something is an
injunction front of me. There's a kind of question of.
Am I going to let you? I'm going to let you throw mine.
I'm going to let you through and so if I slow down slightly or I
flash my lights or whatever the conventions aren't, if the
country, then it's kind of an invitation.
So yeah, I'm willing to let you through off, you go actually.
It's not but I'm just traveling along as a sort of a ballistic
necking the piece of machinery. And actually I sort of social
age making invitation as suggesting to you and then you
would recognize Something oh yeah then he sees where I reach
come through. So I slowed down a bit now, he's
got to slow down more because he point the reason slowdowns to
tell you go. If I go then to contrast and
have you start to misread those who feel really good, really
good on this issue. We are social social being
through and through, and makes me good at meeting each other as
an intention to making suggestions and understanding.
Yeah, you wanted to do this. Oh no.
You don't want me to do that. That's what human beings are.
That's a acid was super power, really?
But but as soon as one of the parties is of it is a machine
unless he Can do that reasoning just as well as we can, we're
going to get into real trouble. So it could be for example that
our car might slow down before Junction and appears letting
never be able through and you might be slowing down for some
totally different reason about slowing down concern and there's
something on the road but if a human were in that situation,
they don't know. I must I do be careful here
because I'm going to discuss going to come out because he's
gonna think I'm signaling and I machine my will not do that.
It will just didn't just disappear stylish the first
system so be sure to have in front of them and and and this
this This is like a really, really, really, really difficult
problem to solve. I think, because the the nature
of these interactions is very, very succulent fluid and even
interpretation things like lights.
So you, because I believe you, if you indicate right, you're
going along the row. You normally means you're gonna
turn, right? Again, us.
But since I'm, that means you're going to go around something.
There's a thing in front of you, which means you can have to go
out into the into the road a little so, so I'm not sure you
get turning right, I'm just going out.
He gets going out of the includes the roast lady or it
might mean, you know, or, for example, if you are various
possible, tell him from me that you could be turning down, if
one of them's, our sort of track with the gate run from to the,
then the vehicle behind you for he's all yours.
I'm not turning down that. I know that there's a, you know,
a few years later, the road. If you're not sure, if you're
sitting normally, then expect person to go down the road.
You certainly don't expect me just to be a off into the Verge,
but on the other hand paint, but they could write because I've
got a hunch. Take a right to know if I go
into a field but of course you need to read the stuff correctly
again because otherwise you use an eternal spirit.
You're going to make the wrong assumptions about what people
are going to do. And I think it had an extra
righteousness problem. I think especially problem is
that in this goes back to your point earlier just about not
really, not really knowing what you're supposed to do as a
driver. So in case of thinking, should I
be stirring or not, I have a table for me.
I would find them if I were to note on this vehicle and someone
was waving at me to go. Through her.
I was wait. I can imagine myself waiting
back in a cheery way. Say oh yeah yeah yes, great
because it's not I'm not driving a car, are you driving?
So I might be agreeing some Plan B the truth with all the best
intentions but I'm not actually in control of the car.
So I would say, come on out. Oh no, hang on.
Now my car's need a hit because because I wasn't actually in
control. So you have this terrible
problem that the people engage those complicated signaling and
social behavior. But the trouble is a thing.
If it's cheating with another vehicle epic minute reasons they
do. But also there's a person in
there who may be cheerfully, engaging, social behavior, but
completely erroneous because I'm not actually moving the kind
that, actually, this is Jennifer.
I don't have that much. It helps to make the autonomous
vehicle somehow really different.
Well, I was going to say maybe it can contribute because yeah,
go. Yeah.
I think it's going to be good to set it up a little bit.
It were like now you have showed a lot of interesting challenges
here, right? We have you have gone through
that. Clearly of all the problems are
going to cover in. This is another podcast, this
might be on the spectrum of more complicated to solve.
Yeah this podcast if we're at the end of this podcast solve at
least one of these. You know I was in you would
become extremely rich here we come with me.
Yeah, some curiously at least in terms of getting towards The to
solving some of these things. What have you been doing or what
is something that could be potentially done to mitigate
some of these challenges? Yeah, so I think the realistic
short term strategy or also tailor from the next five and
five ten years is I think something separate traffic.
This is the super boring approach but I do change
anything that we want. Have lots of autonomous vehicles
on the road just need to separate them out from other
vehicles, at least from some for some Parts of their journey and
just keep everybody else away from them.
And we have a somewhat related idea to that which is a slightly
less drastic is to treat me something like trans, so trans
but they're not. We have you directly travel and
trying to do what they do. And if I want to rodent Ramen,
as you balance, where I know that I need to keep out of its
way. All right, so there's no sense
in which everything is that transmitting through the tram is
just doing what it's doing. I'm steering clear of me.
So I think so, you could either have separate spaces or you can
have essentially totally separate.
Mostly Lanes but also separate rooms and you need to be clear
that these vehicles look different to regular vehicles
and we expected America from. So we're basically, humans are
going to work around these, it's idiot in your lumps, which will
be intelligent in their lumps, then more intelligent
intransitive. So rails and small, but they're
still essentially own up Mom, tonight to our job, took to work
to work RAM, and I think that's the them socially.
It's not a social interaction anymore.
It's a smart people. Kept it carefully and let
cleverly of voiding the hit by them in the same way we wanted
to translate. That's that's, that's one I
think that's realistic possibility.
Would you would you explain plate that as well to then the
kind of inner workings and slow? Would you then say that maybe
it's not a good thing that you have this vehicle that could be
doing multiple things like in himself.
It's a terrorist. Yes, you know go Max mentioned
you're right. Actually I think you probably
want this vehicle to be predictable.
So you don't want to stick a do much like a human driver.
You probably. To be quite simple fold.
The clearly wants to be very clever.
Seeing children bicycles in front of it.
Stopping like anything, you wouldn't be incredibly good at
safety but you probably don't want it to be engaging in
complicated interactions with other drivers.
You want if you want to be making it as a simple simple as
you can. Yeah, so that's one strategy.
I think that's really a viable strategy.
I think that the longer term things is, what we've been
working on. So theoretically, which is much
harder is trying to get AI system to actually do the kind
of social Social reason that we do.
And I think what I'll say a bit about what that means and from
our perspective, but also why it's hard.
So so the word we considered conceptualize.
Social reason is as a process of what we call virtual bargain.
So what I mean by virtual is that you don't actually have to
do the bargaining to and fro explicitly.
But you just kind of think if we can agree what to do here, we
could if we could talk, what would we conclude?
And, and sometimes we have to actually talk, sometimes it's
not obvious what we should do, but a lot of the time social
interactions. Require some kind of know.
Now it's my turn to be natural to speak.
I'm holding the door. You're supposed to go through
it. If you don't give you another go
through it, you gotta say, no, don't have the door, you can't
just leave me standing with hollyoaks the door for ages.
The all these things, we that these certain attraction
engaging. They're all eat, quite naturally
framed in terms of what would we be if you talk about.
So, do taking something like the the load current Curb Your
Enthusiasm episode number. Yeah, right.
Right. So yeah, well I think actually
huge about huge amounts of sort of drama and zip codes and
indeed, you think humor General is all about the violation and
Distortion of those rules. They want us expect one thing,
one was expecting everything, and then.
So in case of something like driving, then you've got kind of
questions of, yeah, I'm gonna turn out in front of you.
How far are you how far am i what's the one of the spots of
General speed of trafficking was Road?
Did you get you through example, suppose you wave at me?
Flash, your lights UK that have natural thing to do.
So I'm on the main road you're just coming out.
I flash my last slowed slightly. So what's the point of that
flash? But it could be getting sort of
us any convention, but you don't need a convention is saying
something, like, I'm sending you a message, what could it be?
Well, it's going to be, if it gets that, if I'm slowly slide,
it's gonna be go, right? We're out.
What else have you? You know, there's no other
message. So then you think, well, you
sending me a message or your maybe you're waving to.
You mean, this is invitation and And that's the nothing natural
thing to do. So to get an artificial system
to mimic that, it's just going to be really difficult because
that artificial system has to understand the situation that
the that it and the human driver.
I in, in the same way, has seen. Yeah.
You the human driver can see me and I can see you and you're
slowing. I can see that you're slowing.
Hive way you've seen it, I've wave more stuff.
And so that's first. We have to establish common
knowledge, which is pretty difficult.
And then it has to think, what in that situation you want.
Thing to do is this and the quote, obviously, if there was
crucial that social interactions, is that they work.
Well when we agree, what the obvious thing is and when it
when it, when we disagree then we can I get cross with each
other. But of course the machine has to
think along the same lines as video about what is the obvious
sensible thing to do. And that's, that's, that's
trying to mimic a lot of human and social intelligence there.
So I think it's pretty hard. It's definitely tricky.
I wonder if one sort of compromise solution without
getting it Perfection is for. The machine to just have very
clear explicit modes of communication that when I flash
my lights twice you know as a car it means in this or
basically just outlining all of those kind of informal ways of
communicating that we as humans have.
And just saying this is what it means when the car does this and
then creating sort of that evolution of a common
understanding and the Machine World.
Yeah, I think you all could you write What you're doing is
you're taking a step and I think it's the Right Step.
Beyond the machine, is simply going about his own business.
And I'm just avoiding it to actually leave the tram model,
is that it never lets me through it just goes charging by and I
knew that. So I'm going to go confront of
it I but what Kevin would be an idiot to do so and that's kind
of common understanding is not really required because this is
just another email subject in world is going about its
business of Cleopatra, Scott with Mighty braking systems and
clearer vision and so on. But but David, rather treat it
simply isn't as a as a lump. It's not, it's not sentient,
being I think a Step Beyond that.
Absolutely, is to say, well, could have this is this
essentially, this is a being, which is clean.
We don't know, don't know, one people treated essentially
being. We don't think it's, it's, it's
reasoning and thinking because then I'll start, you can take a
person but indeed. If you wanted to have a signal
for left people through, you should have a maybe even the
words, you know, please go from you to you can go whatever.
But you keep it as distinct as possible from natural human
interactions. I think.
And what you don't want to go to somebody in the in the cabin of
the vehicle smiling and waving, so you've got two things in one
thing that I, you know, through this thought about that.
I didn't think about the complexity of this, you know, in
terms of this things that can be misinterpreted problem, traffic,
I think very selling for me is study of honking.
And because I'm from Sweden in Stockholm honk here in summer
home gets like the most exotic thing in the world looks like oh
those two years ago, but that's not always the case in other
countries and in some countries some cities, you know, one home
can mean a million different things to seemingly depending on
the context. It can be seeing as friendly
thing aggressive thing, accusatory thing.
And so just Just that part like signaling through honking like
that seems like a very complex thing over cultural Dimensions.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. I think you're right.
I think it's both complex across cultures.
And that's a very big issue for vehicle manufacturers, of
course, because they have to produce a vehicle that's going
to work everywhere and even the same Vehicles going to work
everywhere. So on, I don't take my vehicle
drive, you don't drive your vehicle from Sweden to whistling
and they said, it's just doesn't know what it's doing, it's gonna
be disastrous. But the other cars will kind of
in computer speaker or Autumn speak say like hey if you don't
know our language while you're coming here you know like this
really matter. So I think that's that's one
issue and the other issue which evening you pointed out with
your multiple meanings of is that in some contexts in some
societies, a single signal is going to be just incredibly hard
to interpret and very contextual.
So that's, you know, that's really really hard to you.
Comfort to get that wrong and particular home and they're
aggressive honks. I have really loud.
Continuous Hogs that you kind of unfriendly with Eric idle toots
just say, oh, you probably have seen that the lights change in
front of you. And your, you might want to go.
That's a kind of friendly helpful thing, but it's also in
the tone. And again, if you imagine your
track, your interaction with the vehicle and using as a person.
If any reason first never, they're not listening or trying
vehicle and one of those friendly honks saying go on, you
can go and the vehicles, not moving.
Then this is rapidly. Going to turn.
Into some irritation and frustration, then all the other
thing I should say, actually I think that this is really under
favor, the common factor. So if you talk to sort of car
manufacturers out this they at least the ones I've talked to,
they really, really don't want to think about this problem, but
it is I think we're in serious is social embarrassment.
So think that human being really, really care about as we
want that, we're all human being is doing something which is just
foolish in front of other people.
So, so if you imagine being told, I wanted to drive down the
road but Every time I don't need to be incredibly cautious in
your driving so that if there's any possibility you might sorry
might be bad in front of your energy, you start to really slow
down dramatically and just wait. Even if those cars behind you
and when you're around about your at the junction there in,
this is an enormous amount of space.
You just got to wait and this would be so painful, you imagine
trying to do this. You, you have people's hearts.
Oh God damn. But of course if you're an
autonomous vehicle, you may well be in that exact situation.
So it's not behaving as you would your thinking.
What is it doing? I'm so Oh sorry, I'm so sorry
but it's like I know what I'm not controlling its otherwise
not going out in front of this this this round about now but
it's a decent. And so you've got this
tremendous disconnect between what you feel is the socially
appropriate thing to do what's actually happening.
So there I think it again, it's fine.
If you're as it were in a tram or a tram with messages.
Flashing saying, you're saying, what's going on.
Yeah, because I never want to expose the trams to do with you.
You're just a passenger, but if it feels like it's kind of
either, it's me driving. She's the worst or its kind of
my car. My role to make this thing work
from failing. That's you know I can imagine a
be absolute torture so you can actually put multifunctional
turning it off as soon as you possibly can.
There's this reminds me as an undergraduate, taking social
psychology, for the first time I had to do an exercise where I
violated some social norm and the one that I chose was
driving, I think it was like 20 miles per hour below the speed
limit and it was just the most horrible feeling, you know, I
just had that sinking. Sensation looking around.
Like I'm sitting like, it's not my fault.
I'm doing good, they have to, and like really just like that
need to like, explain the situation.
So yeah, I think that's very relevant.
So what concept that I think really see bleeding into this
whole discussion and one that you've touched upon a lot or,
you know, very much recently is just this idea of intervening at
a systems level or at the individual level.
And I want to talk about the Frame is what you call the
intervening at the individual level, versus the system's
level. And so you can kind of see this
in the way that you design the rose and whether you separate
the cars as being more of a systems level versus the kinds
of signaling that you give either.
Whether it's to the quote-unquote driver or to the
person who's in the car. And so, I want to just just hear
your take on how, you know, Behavioral Science as a field.
What we have done so far maybe where we've gone Gone wrong, and
the relative impact of these two types of approaches.
Yeah. Okay.
That's a very good question. So what if you're mentioning is
joint work with your vote? Steve.
Who said by every colonist at Carnegie Mellon and George and I
are both independently, just mixed up together.
Being involved with, trying to make give advice to government
selected companies, on behavioral behavioral stuff,
they can do that. And I guess we both struggled
over the years starting with great optimism.
Thinking, how about we must know.
So many useful things with us. You're just a fountain of great
ideas that will get help people with.
And, and gradually discovering that most of the things that we
know which are which are really helpful, but then that then
they're helpful in effect to a fairly limited degree.
So, for example, one that's very close to my heart is climate
change. So the drivers on a committee in
the United Kingdom, pulled the climate change committee, and
that's the committee, the sex, UK targets.
So, the UK now has a net zero. Agate having a Target is 17, the
tubing and of course, but we're supposed to get some notes, you
eventually get the slot and so this committee both sets the
target to at least it proposes a government to government steps.
In this case, I also most progress so it's interesting.
2008, will speed 2008 three outdoor 2008 or 2010.
I've now forgotten that the Boone family tree jacket came
in. There's been a statutory can see
this looks like this and has a bunch of most.
The academics who just see how this process is going.
Advice on, what needs to be done to make sure that the things
they don't track? I was there as behavioral person
and it was fantastic, interesting experience.
But I became increasingly aware of the fact that the kind of
things. I started off thinking would be
really helpful tended, to be immensely, really marginal
significant so thinking, oh, we're maybe just help people
reduce their energy by finding out what their neighbors energy
consumption is or maybe we can help them with a bit of both.
Giving them smart meters and help them optimize you when they
have their appliances on. So maybe they realize how it
much cheaper. How these my part is that Mike
to we're going to bounce the load on the grid more
effectively and things like this.
And he starts the almost uniformly of really, really
marginal significance, that sort of you want.
A cheaper said, max kind of things.
Where's all the real action? It's just changing the entire
system. So, obviously Renown valuable
things in a way, like just just electrifying degrees.
Just make sure they're almost all of how we generated to
renewable. Hugely important, but obviously
things like having an infrastructure for the future of
electric, charging for food, electric vehicles, regulating
for fuel, efficiency, regulating for the phase-out of fossil
fuels and things like the shipping and discuss the
deviation. So you've just got all these
really big systemic things which were all about really changing
the way the society and the economy functions and for
regulating to fit in chelation changing building stands.
And these are very in a way. A very traditional kind of
boring things, right? And you actually want much to do
with behavior, I think so extend.
That's right. But yes you start off with the
Bible person thinking I hope you've got something out
extremely you and she's this individual level stuff and I
suppose now I think well actually the thing that we can
do, which of these genuinely useful, it is a limited, is, it
is rather than trying to say let's get individuals to change
their behavior on top of these other things, as a primer, our
primary goal. It's more a case of trying to
design policies and regulations in a way.
They make sense to people and are appealing.
So for example, if one of the things that has worked with
every country tell you is you need some kind of contact.
You need a pretty high, you can be pretty high tax.
Or you might have a cap and trade system uses various ways.
You can do it. You said, you need this to make
to make efficient transition and that people don't like taxes as
we saw with the the have an upset lot of carbon
On the other hand it could be and has been done.
So extent in Canada, I believe that you take money from your
carbon tax and you just immediately just Distributing
other way. So something to get cheaper
carbon non carbon intensity, get cheaper carbon intensive, things
are more expensive but what you're not doing is saying we're
going to take money out of the economy because we're a few, we
recovered just like the have more money.
Son, you've just really deep and difficult questions about what's
going to make that. What's going to make a
particular policy, be acceptable, something that you
can get behind. But I think that's actually the
crucial question because the this like the question is these
big transformative things are really destructive to society
and we have to manage the destruction by doing the
sensible ways as in penalties, the engineers so on and business
people, but we also do part of that is designed in part of
that. It's behavioral.
So I think that's a different perspective.
Really own where yeah, I have a different Spectrum now on what,
where the real action is available.
Starting in public policy. I have to say that my reaction
is both one of love. And you know, this is so
refreshing. And, you know, this is
completely enlightened me and made me feel differently about
the kinds of interventions that I'm working on and, and sharing
and so on. But, on the other hand, Also
deeply disturbing and I'm incredibly unsatisfying for me
as someone who is not working in.
Public policy doesn't have any desire to work in public policy
and I and I think my question for you is how can apply a
behavioral scientist like myself work to make a dent outside of
public policy. If you know you're not, you're
not working with any government, you don't have any influence in
that sense. Yeah, I mean, I think we should
Because of course, the influence was one of the people on the
planet. So we should shouldn't feel too
bad that we can't our own work can't so single-handedly solve
major societal problem with anybody, but I always had this
like feeding one should be as I really must get to grips with
the climate change, from this can make a real dent and that's
a lot so you don't have to work a teeny tiny dent and a lot of
other people like ask me when they were teenagers and that's
you but no trivial thing. But I think the song True Trisha
function because you have the iPhone aspirin thing is it says,
yes, it's the system where the really big stuff happens to
happen. So to some extent I think I'll
what that this is the the obviously say I'll try certainly
more directly answer your question.
The obvious one would be saying, you know, why its arse as as
lobbyists and voters. And campaigners that if we could
actually in governments, try to change the Wave It's called
discourse what runs and make things like carbon tax is.
Or and and more aggressive regulation On Target and similar
potentially taxation on your harmful foods and clamping down
on the very initial suspect of the gambling industry.
In all of these thing just introducing your more
aggressive. This is just getting more
enthusiasm for for aggressively attacking which voters are very
damaging. And as in, I think it's not a
secret that there's an enormous amount of funding going in the
opposite direction. And we devote, lots of lots of
companies that do things that are have been negative
externalities been that big destructive consequences It has
also spent quite a lot of time trying to defend that they
continue to do them. And then we started tobacco
industry which is owed to refuse introducing in them in Europe
and the us and we know globally. It's still growing this quite
astounding really that we can have any travel companies
primarily based in in Western countries who are growing in
their, their actual weights, which gives gives gives one of
the strong sense that the public good is not really at the
Forefront of their thinking, but they are companies often.
So it's not, it's up to you. And what they're doing and given
that given the track record and the, the obviously commercial
imperative, he's not surprised. Doesn't make them populated with
the evil. Monstrous people, it's just sort
of what you'd expect but there we need.
We need to be cracking down, extremely hard, and changing
public debate. In pushing your a public debate
in the other direction. And I think one reason
Behavioral Science has some really deep to say about this is
that the argument from the, from the, again, anti-regulatory side
or the anti carbon tax, the social side is always going to
be seen to be going to be well. Which made her own choices and
people are able to make these choices.
And it's a pink delete, it's always better to lie.
People said side effects that their own Fates so people
decided what to gamble, a huge amounts of money and Destroy
themselves. Then, again, some sense, you
know, that's their right and they must finish, you know what
they're doing. And I think that's that's where
the people's house is really useful because babies often say,
well, people were all struggling real floundering around the
world fighting from good for us to understand, there are lots of
things. Lots of choices that if we Get
her up, get the round table, agree, going back to our virtual
Barney again. We'd all say, oh, actually, do
we want to have the option of smoking?
We wanted to be the case that you can Des invented with me or
disadvantage. Most of us would say, yeah, that
be quite good at it. Great, that's up the night and
that's initial table design business, is that, is that the
right way to frame the frame? The question to this move is
popular and effective. I don't know.
Yeah. Can I summarize them?
Because we're here let you move on to the one of the second
second final segment here but just a quick summary and see if
you know I understand fully you know you're kind of stand here
in terms of these things because I think the problems especially
with the idea of nudges and energy was always that you know?
Okay, look in this policy tool box.
You have regulation. You have incentives and so on
and that's great. But you know, actually there's
this really new exciting thing that you can do as a policy
maker that could potentially have the same amount of impact
or more with small Canada is, you know, not just let alone
cost and by measuring people's freedoms?
Yes. Are you kind of?
Because, because what I'm hearing to do that, obviously
not just still has its space and you can go to find.
To use them. However, the maybe potentially
bigger impact using real science is, it's not so much to say,
let's, let's not, think about regulation.
Let's not, think about incentives that more think about
the heavily informed regulation people.
Important incentives. Sightings exactly right.
Yeah, this is trying is using behavioral insights to designer
phasic tools better, and to make them to get public support for
them. And I ultimately, I think in a
democracy, the most it is, we should be doing things that
there is a public support for. So, if we can't, Convince the
population at large, this is a good idea, we shouldn't be doing
that and that's simply just the case.
So I don't know, technocratic perspective here and let's hope
that. I think I think sometimes the
nudge perspective comes had that feels doesn't have to be that
that we kind of we the policymakers know what people
should we do. So we'll try and mostly to do it
is I think there's a kind of more transparent story of we
need to sub, put a case out there saying, here's something
that your behavior. You're going to all struggle.
If you're all going to be falling down this Rabbit Hole in
time for the fall down, To let's take the rabbit hole of right,
let's fill it in and if we all do this, good idea.
Let's let's do it a bit like the pack.
We have actually started to ban smoking in public places and all
sorts of me a similar thing. And most of us think, you know,
that was a good idea, then whatever we thought originally,
now are all kind of for it. So, I think, yeah, I think
that's right. It's not that, it's not, the
Magister pointless. It is the date the dangerous
sometimes, and I certain put him to this.
I'm thinking if I can't even judge, it's really effective.
I'm just like not smart enough. I must try harder.
Where are you baby? No, it's not.
The Natchez know. These are quite limited.
So, of course, you need to do classic regulation.
And about people, like sunstein and failure.
And how did you get there? They're great advocates for, for
the classical part. Policy methods are not saying,
don't use the tool. I think it.
Sometimes happened within Behavior design team to have
entire teams. That one feels.
It would be foolish to say well this is pretty Way Beyond the
nudge. We need to do some regulation,
it feels like that's your mission to hope to defeat but
chatter I think that's right limit.
Recognizing the lot of Pavements actually pushes in the direction
of classical regulatory tools, I think that's and so that's, it's
worth worth holding onto the yes.
Yeah. Okay.
So then we're going to ending in in a fun fashion.
I would say which we we do this isn't with a segment called,
would it replicates? So we're going to do kind of a
speed round and present you with some hypothetical research file
size. Oh great.
Yeah. Yes, you telling us, you know,
if you think these fake findings are likely to replicate five.
Okay, Go, Okay. Consistent users of the language
learning app, Duolingo develop a more rigid language structure
than those who learn a new language through cultural
immersion. Wow, I'm actually his father,
but I know my interest is about these things are not only bad
but they're no, no, I know. But every time I do an
experiment, you are always Surprised, so yeah, I'm a bit
skeptical about, maybe for the next 10 countries that enacted
lockdown earlier in the coronavirus.
Pandemic experienced more behavioral, fatigue among
citizens and ultimately lower adherence to quarantine and
resulted in higher death rates from covid.
Mmm, I think that must be wrong, but I again, Clear.
These are pretend findings that we made up and we just want to
get your reaction and maybe you know a sentence about yeah I
think so. That's good.
Okay, I'm going to try to say this with a straight face people
who refer to their friends as mates, have more sexually,
complicated relationships than those who call their friends
buddies. That's incredibly important to
me. Okay, last one predictions of
human behavior based on Bayesian.
Rationality models, outperform. Those based on logic based
reasoning. Well, well, I'd like to give
this to you, because that's what I do.
But, yeah, I'd be the thing is that causes cognitive models are
defended those of how well, like predicts is depend on so much
more than that basic pieces of piece of Machinery.
The so so many it's much too. Details.
So I mean I really like the case that the Beijing of that, but it
logic models and also a political networks.
But some Simeon, laughing case, I wouldn't be too sure.
Wonderful. Well done, you survived the
round here, and and I think there's a, there's this are
again. These are fake fake Apple C.
So anyone can test them in a research study, so invite
listeners to do that. Last thing, before we let you
leave the final question that we ask.
Ask every guest is what's your most controversial opinion in
Behavioral Science? Ah, let me think for a second on
that drum. Sure.
And come up with something. Okay, yeah, I guess I think is a
controversial opinion, I don't know.
So, I tend to think that the basic idea, that that people are
driven by beliefs and designers. So, basically idea that sort of
something something to folks, like little story about the mind
is true. I think that's completely wrong,
so I don't think anything it's the For which has ever in human
history. No one has ever been driven to
Annex based on their beliefs desires and motives things of
this kind. If I think of those is entirely
post talking rash met with the stock of rationalization, rather
than the causal causal Machinery of the mind.
So your folk psychology, all that stuff he has.
That's a fiction. It's a really useful fiction but
it's 9 to do with how our minds work.
I guess that's probably very controversial and that is a
great reason to read your book - let as well.
Of course, yes. Well, this was so much fun.
Thank you so much for for joining us and we hope to stay
in touch very well. Thank you so much Tina, real
pleasure. Great questions of great
discussion. Thank you.
Time to wrap up another episode of the behavioral design
podcast. We hope you enjoyed the show.
Oh, and I am an AI. Yeah, welcome to uncanny valley
Sam. And allene told me this is going
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