Yo, Senator Lummus confirmed she is leaving in 2027.
That's right, she is not going to be running for re election,
which is leaving many people to wonder what does this mean for
the strategic Bitcoin Reserve initiative?
Senator Lummis was one of the main advocates in the Senate
pushing for the United States to buy 1,000,000 Bitcoin.
But now that now we've got no senator Lummis no behinds and
still no Bitcoin buys. It's been nine months since
President Donald Trump signed the Bitcoin executive order.
So what is actually going to happen with the strategic
Bitcoin reserve in America of course we have a ton of source
material for you guys. We have the betting markets.
The betting markets aren't looking so optimistic about it
either. Guys, it's going to be an
incredible show. Stay tuned and let's jump
straight into the source material.
So what am I talking about today, ladies and gentlemen?
So let's start off with Bo Hines.
So you guys remember this a couple of weeks ago, no, a
couple months ago at this point, Bohenz, which was the biggest
Bitcoin advocate in my opinion, other than the AI Cryptozar
David Sachs in the White House. You saw him in every single
interview, every single interview.
He was advocating for a strategic Bitcoin reserve, how
it was going to happen, how it was an inevitability.
And then a couple months into his, you know, his, his stint at
the White House, he resigned. And then shortly after, you had
this like funky thing that was happening where Treasury
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessett would go on legacy media and he
would say, you know, like we're really focusing on gold.
There was a lot of pushback from the community.
And then he kind of walked it back with the post.
Anyways, it was all very suspicious at that point when
that happened. Initially we told you guys on on
simply Bitcoin. We said this is probably not a
good thing for the strategic Bitcoin Reserve initiative in
the United States. And I remember shortly after he
left the administration, he joined Tether, right, which
again, great, great Bitcoin company and spreading digital
assets all around the world. But anyhow, so this, this was
like the first alarm signal, the second alarm signal.
I have a soft spot for Senator Lemus.
Senator Lummus gave me my first interview with a, a United
States Senator. I had the honor and the pleasure
of being able to interview her interview her inauguration week
in Washington, DC, January of this year.
And I, I remember I was so hyped because she was talking about
the strategic Bitcoin reserve. She was talking about how she
was becoming part of the Senate Banking Committee, which is a
big deal from a policy perspective to have a bitcoiner
in the Senate Banking community. Remember, the other side, the
head of the Senate Banking Committee for the Democratic
Party is Elizabeth Warren, right?
So just to kind of give you an idea of how important that
committee, that committee is and Senator Lummis over the, I think
it was on Friday, actually, she announced that she is not going
to be running for re election. To clarify, she will be doing
everything in her power to continue to push on an advocate
for digital assets in the United States next year.
So she still has a whole year before her term expires, but
she's not going to be running for re election in 2027 moving
forward. There's no way to cut this.
There's no way to spin this. There's no way to make this
better. This is a big loss for the
Bitcoin community. She was the Bitcoin senator.
She was hardcore. She had principles.
I remember one of the the the last thing she said when she's
talking about the interview, she says like, listen, this the this
strategic Bitcoin reserve is one of the things that my generation
could do for your generation to right the wrongs of Fiat.
That was one of the most powerful things she said when we
when, when, when I got to interview her in DC and
unfortunately she's she's not going to be running for for for
re election. I do want to thank Senator
Lummus and her amazing team, got to speak with them last week for
everything that they've contributed to the, the Bitcoin
space, the Bitcoin movement. It's been fantastic.
It's been, it's, it's been incredible that we have an
advocate for Bitcoin on the upper House of the, you know,
of, of, of the US legislative body, right?
So I do want to, I do want to thank Senator Lummus for her
service, But this is a big hit. I'm not going to lie to you
guys. I'm not going to try to spin it.
So anyways, she says it's an incredible honor to represent
Wyoming in EU in the US Senate and throughout my time here,
Wyoming has been my one and only priority.
What a blessing to serve with Senators John A Bar so and Mike
Enzi when I was in the US House and with John and Representative
Harriet Hegman while I've been in the Senate.
We all put Wyoming first, which has cemented our cohesive
working relationship. Deciding not to run for re
election represent a change of heart for me, but in the
difficult, exhausting sessions weeks this fall, I've come to
accept that I do not have six more years in me.
I'm a devout legislator, but I feel like a sprinter in a
marathon. The energy required does doesn't
match up. I'm honored to have earned the
support of President Trump and to have the opportunity to work
side by side with him to fight for the people of Wyoming.
I look forward to continuing this partnership and throwing
all my energy into bringing important legislation to his
desk in 2026 and into retaining common sense Republican control
of the US Senate. Thank you, Wyoming.
So let's do a couple of things to breakdown what she just said
thing #1 the Senate. The Republicans will more than
likely keep the Senate next year.
More than likely they will lose the House next year as things
currently stand. That's thing number two thing #3
the Clarity Act has a high probability of passing in Q1 or
Q2 of 2026. The Clarity Act, more than the
Genius Act, is actually a bigger win for our industry in terms
of, again, it's in the name, regulatory clarity.
And of course, when you have regulatory clarity, you have a
lot of confidence from the big banks, from large institutional
players to invest in digital assets, to invest, invest in
Bitcoin without the, with, without fear of uncertainty,
without fear of, of an incoming administration coming in and
reversing all of the things the Trump administration did.
Remember, an executive order can be reversed by a future
president, a something that goes through legislation and gets
passed in Congress. It's much harder to, to, to
reverse. And as Senator Lummus has said
many, many times, they have done all of these things in a
bipartisan fashion. So it's not been all complete
support from the Democratic Party, but a lot of Democrats
supported the Genius Act and a lot of Democrats will support
the Clarity Act as well. So I do want to thank Senator
Senator Lummis for her service. But I'm not going to, you know,
put a cherry on top and say this is amazing news or this is
fantastic. Losing bohines and then losing
Senator Lummis is just it's a big loss for the Bitcoin Reserve
movement in the United States. You can cut that in two
different ways. You could say, Nico, that's a
good thing. We actually don't want more
nation states acquiring Bitcoin. Or you can look at it from a
more number go up perspective and say, listen, if there's not
going to be a strategic Bitcoin reserve, then you're not going
to see these wild price swings to the up to, you know, the
upwards direction. Because we were telling you guys
this throughout the year and there is a lot more certainty
earlier on this year that look, I said if the United States
announces A strategic Bitcoin reserve and they announced that
they bought like, you know, 500,000 Bitcoin or something
like that. I'll tell you guys like the
price of Bitcoin would probably go to half $1,000,000 within a
year, right? Because it would just create an
A Bitcoin arms race worldwide, right?
So anyhow, let's talk about this.
So the US Bitcoin reserve, the Poly market odds now have it at
less than 1%. And just to kind of give you
guys reference, right, And the beginning of the year in in
March of 2025, the betting markets had it at a 77%
probability that it was going to happen, right?
And then when Bo Hines resigned, right, which was in August,
right? You can see that it went from a
35% chance down to a 20% chance and now with the Senator Lummis
announcement, you know you have it at less than 1%.
Now, if you are taking more of a long term view of this, here is
the the betting, even though it doesn't have that much volume,
but still I love the betting markets gives gives it a more
the betting markets have been more accurate at predicting
elections, predicting results because again, people put money
on the line. It's not just a pollster.
A pollster can be compromised. They can be paid off.
You know, when people put their money where their mouth is, so
to speak, when they have something at stake, right?
It, it tends to, you know, create more accurate results.
Now here are the odds currently as they stand for AUS National
Bitcoin Reserve before 2027. It's currently at 27%, so check
this out. We went from 77% on March of
2025 to 2027, right? So 2026, it's all the way down
to 27% and we lost our two biggest advocates for a
strategic Bitcoin reserve in the same calendar year, Bo Hines,
who again is with Tether, and you have Senator Lummis, who is
announcing that she is no longer running for, you know, the
United States Senate in 2027. There's no way to cut it.
There's no way to sugarcoat it. I think this is a big loss for
the movement. I think that, I think that and
I'll and I'll get to this. I think there's a, there's a
rabbit hole here and I'll kind of connect it with what was
happening with Elon and, and all that stuff.
There's no way to slice this. There's no way to spin this.
There's no way to cut this. There's no way to reframe this.
We had our two biggest advocates basically resign and, and
announce that they're, they're not running for office.
Now, Senator Lummus is still going to have a year in office
and she's going to do her best. She's going to work.
Her team is going to work on, on digital asset legislation.
But again, as a political junkie, I'm looking at this from
the outside and what I'm seeing is, and she kind of says this in
her statement. I'll pull it back up again just
so you guys could see it with me.
But look, she says this in her statement.
This isn't just me speculating. Deciding not to run for re
election doesn't represent a change of heart for me.
But in the difficult, exhausting session weeks this fall, I've
come to accept that I do not have six more years in me.
I'm a devout. I'm a devout legislator.
But I feel like a sprinter in a marathon.
I feel like that line really gives the towel, right?
So what I think that Senator Lummus ran into, and I think
that what Bo Hines ran into, is bureaucracy.
You can call it the administrative state, you call
it the deep state. I don't even call it the deep
state. It's just the administrative
states. It's the unelected bureaucracy
that remains in power no matter who gets elected.
And that unelected bureaucracy gets a tremendous amount of
power and influence over United States politics because they are
powered and funded by the United States Federal Reserve, right.
And what what what we've seen this entire year is that the
United States Federal Reserve has not been acting in a neutral
fashion. They've been acting in AI would
say they've been acting extremely politically.
I think they've been picking sides.
I think that they've tried to sabotage the Trump
administration's first year so that essentially, by the time
the midterms come around, he's no longer really a threat to
them, right? Because once the Democrats take
back in power, we know what the Democrats stand.
Not all of them, but we know how the Democrats feel about
Bitcoin, right? They want a central bank digital
currency. They don't want Bitcoin.
The Trump administration and the GOP have made it part of their
official party platform that they will stand for digital
assets. They'll stand for stable coins
and they'll stand for Bitcoin and they'll stand for the right
to self custody. If you're the Federal Reserve,
what do you, do you want competition or do you want up a
complete and utter monopoly right?
So I don't blame them for acting, you know, in in their
their own interest. That is something to be talked
about. And I think what happened with
Bo Hines and I think what what is what happened with Senator
Lummus is that they ran into this machine, this machine that
specializes in ensuring its survival, right?
That's literally what this bureaucracy, this massive
bureaucracy in Washington, DC is.
You saw a glimpse of that when Elon went in there with Doge.
Now Doge is officially shut down.
But you saw it was a combination of the legacy media attacking
what Elon was doing. And then it was a combination of
you saw it every single day on X.
It was like politicians would stand in front of buildings and
say, Oh my God, the world's going to burn down.
You know, like he's cutting all these things that shouldn't be
cut, even though there were so many inefficiencies that were
discovered. I mean, this was just announced
the other day the, the, the Pentagon just failed.
It's for it's 8th audit in a row, right?
So there's no accountability whatsoever.
And why would there be any accountability at all, right?
So again, I think this is what Bo Hines ran into.
I think that this is what Senator Lummis run into.
And I think it's utterly exhausting, right?
And I think that's why Elon left.
I think that's why Bo Hines left.
And I think This is why Senator Lummis, she's being very clear
with you guys. She's saying, listen, I just
this is going to require a ton of energy.
I want to Sprint to get all of this stuff done.
But I've come to realize that this is going to be a marathon,
right? This is going to take a lot
longer than what everybody anticipated.
And of course, like it's, you know, ladies and gentlemen, this
is the separation of money and state.
What did you expect? Did you expect something
different? Did you expect for them just to
give the keys over and say, all right, guys, you found better
money here, You you could go, you know, go, go do your thing,
right? No, it's going to take all it's
it was it was always going to take a lot longer.
And I think these are the lessons that we're learning.
But This is why it's so important to for you to stay in
the fight. Next man up right, keep your
head up and again get pro Bitcoin, anti CBDC people in
Congress and positions of power. And again, that is how slowly
but surely you will get the strategic Bitcoin reserve.
It it needs, you need the political will, but we've lost
the momentum and I think that's what I want to talk about on
today's intro. We've lost the momentum.
We've lost the momentum Bigley and I don't think we're going to
get this strategic Bitcoin reserve anytime soon.
And we had the opportunity in the beginning of the year.
We just didn't run fast enough to capitalize on it.
That's my take on all this. And yeah, I mean, Senator
Lummis, thank you for your service.
Bo Hines. I think you did an incredible
job as well. But that's how things stand.
And that's not my opinion. The betting odds seem to agree
with me as well. But anyways, now what is the
bright side of all this? The bright side of all this is
again, a lot of people were a lot of smart people were were
advocating for. There shouldn't be a strategic
Bitcoin reserve, right? You don't want governments to
have all of this Bitcoin. Maybe from a number go up
perspective it's positive, but from Bitcoins core mission of
the separation of money and state and ending this monopoly
by central banks, you actually don't want the government to
hold all this Bitcoin. You actually want these
initiatives to start happening on the state level, which they
are happening on the state level.
I think the state of Texas announced the other day that
they bought $5,000,000 worth of Bitcoin exposure.
That's the type of movement that you want, right?
And that's exactly what's happening, right.
So the silver lining is that that again, you have more time
to acquire more cheap Bitcoin because inevitably governments
are going to buy this. Like this is just a delay.
They're going to buy this. This is an inevitability.
Bitcoin is the best money the world has ever seen by a long
shot. So again, they're just going to
buy it at a much higher price. I remember having an interview
with Adam Back and he was saying like, look like governments are
just going to buy it at a much higher price than they are now.
If they don't want to take advantage of $100,000 Bitcoin,
$80,000 Bitcoin, they'll buy it at $500,000 Bitcoin, right?
So again, from a number go up perspective, I wouldn't say it's
very, very bullish news. From a kind of Bitcoin mission
perspective, it's incredibly bullish news because again, it
gives you the individual more opportunity to acquire cheap
Bitcoin and more opportunity for individuals to hold the lion's
share of Bitcoin rather than institutions and governments.
And that fundamentally, at the end of the day, if the Bitcoin
revolution is to succeed, it's going to succeed on an
individual level. It's not going to succeed by the
it's not going to succeed if it's driven by the institutions
or if it's driven by the government.
We kind of saw a glimpse of that in El Salvador.
In El Salvador, you had, you know, the launch of, of, of
Bitcoin as legal tender. You had the launch of the Chivo
app, but it was more top down. And what you saw is you didn't
really see that much adoption like I, I, I, I, I applaud
Naimbu Kelly for making Bitcoin legal tender.
I think it was a fantastic move. In a way, Bitcoin still is a
form of you could still use it as money in El Salvador, right?
But that's not how you want Bitcoin adoption to happen.
You want Bitcoin adoption to happen from the bottom up.
It fundamentally Bitcoin is a. Fast roots movement, right?
So anyhow, interesting news starting it off, I don't think
the strategic Bitcoin reserve is going to happen in 2025.
I don't think it's going to happen in 2026.
Let's see if it happens within Trump's first term.
He is heavily incentivized for this to happen.
He has one, he has the one of the top ten largest strategic
Bitcoin reserves. I mean, Bitcoin treasury
companies, his company just announced that they bought, you
know, more Bitcoin. I think it was, it was today or
yesterday. So he's heavily incentivized for
number to go up. He's heavily incentivized for
Bitcoin to succeed. His, his kids, Eric Trump
heavily involved in the, in the sector.
They're speaking at conferences left and right, their own
company, I think it's called American Bitcoin.
Again, they're heavily exposed to the markets.
And the reality is this, ladies and gentlemen, and 2025 was not
that great of a year for Bitcoin Year, year to date, it's down.
I think it's like 6%. If you go back 365 days, it's
down as well. So Bitcoin hasn't had a great
year. Now let's see what happens in
2027, in 2026. Is it going to finally break the
cycles? Are we going to have an
explosive rally? Let's see.
I think that's yet to be determined.
But Bitcoin has never had two years back-to-back in the red.
So if we end, if we end the year in this 90K8885K region and
that's what the price is in December 31st of 2025 heading
into January. But that would mean that all
Bitcoin would need to do is go up from there, right?
So that 2026 is uncharted territory.
We don't know where Bitcoins going to end up.
And I think that's the big question on everybody's minds.
No one knows the answer to it. And that makes me incredibly
effing bullish and excited. And the reason for that is, for
the first time in a long time, we have uncertainty in the
markets. And you want uncertainty in the
markets, we want people not to know exactly what's going to
happen because if someone tells you that something is guaranteed
to happen in the markets, usually the exact opposite tends
to happen. And that's exactly what we saw
this year. Everyone and their mother, we
are guilty of this ourselves. We're extremely bullish of of on
Q3 and Q4 of 2025. It's the year after the halving.
It tends to go parabolic. And you know what happened?
The exact opposite. It was bearish.
They were the most bearish the year after the halving
performances ever in Bitcoin's history.
So what happened? The market did exactly the
opposite of what everyone else is expecting.
So what does the majority, what does the consensus think Bitcoin
is going to do heading into 2026?
Everyone feels bearish. Most people say, listen, the
cycle is over. It's done.
You know, you had senator, Senator Lummis announcing she's
not running for re election. You have Bo Hines resigning.
The strategic Bitcoin reserve isn't happening.
It looks like the Republicans are going to lose the House.
Like everyone has this negative sentiment.
They're expecting, you know, downward, you know, price action
and again, markets do the exact opposite.
So in heading into 2026, we might actually have an
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