Yo welcome to another episode of Simply Bitcoin IRL.
Today, we have a very special guest which who have known for
quite a bit and man has he has he reached some height.
So very happy to have Dylan Leclair on the show before I
want to bring up before I bring them up, I want to give a quick
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Anyways, I want to bring Dylan on stage Dylan.
Very happy to have you on today. How you doing, bro?
Think I'm doing great man. Excited to catch up.
We did meet a what was it? August 20 2010 at bit block,
boom. So it's been a wild ride since
and happy to get you up. Yeah man.
That's definitely. Definitely been a a Ride to say
the least. I'm gonna rip the Band-Aid right
from the beginning. And this is a question that, you
know, I was very lucky to have Lynn Jeff Booth, dr.
Jeff, Ross on the show, the last couple of months and, you know,
we all kind of go down this like Bitcoin Rabbit, Hole Journey,
Dylan and you there's there's there's no end to this rabbit
hole and you just come to these realizations every so often
you're like holy crap like this is crazy and where I'm at in
this current rabbit whole experience is this I'm of
inflation. The idea that governments have
somehow convinced the population that money has to steal from you
in order to work. So, the question that I have for
you Dylan Leclair is is inflation necessary for an
economy to work. No, I don't think so.
It's just that, you know, we've witnessed the the greatest
technological boom and in human existence and human history
during a mostly Keynesian economic Paradigm because of
Banker interest, because if human incentives, because of the
limitations of gold to scale as a medium of exchange, but in,
in, in theory, and I believe at, you know, in practice at an
individual level and eventually, you know, somewhat of an
aggregate level and a Gail. We're going to see that the
reality where if you are willingly or voluntarily
operating on a separate system, you can you can you know, opt
out of the kind of political pillaging that that the monetary
system kind of forces upon you. So they're still, I mean, we're,
you know, 50 years into this period where the government
said. All right, we're not even going
to pretend that we care about this gold Peg or tether.
Anymore. And we're just going to be paper
currencies, and we're about a few years.
I think about three years into the period, where the inflation
is unchecked or not unchecked. But it was, it was checked down.
I was held down and, you know, that was propped up by the
industrialization of the world and globalization.
And now we've kind of reached for growth limits.
Not, I mean, not to sound like what is it malthusian?
But we're at a point now where the debt and the
financialization probably reached a peak in purchasing
power terms and 2021 and you know, their war and a bunch of
these other things, kind of sparked, a somewhat of a
deflation into those things of that paper wealth, and into the
Commodities and hard money sector.
But I think the story of the next decade, the story of our
lifetimes is going to be the Perpetual debasement of your
purchasing power. In any currency terms with a
dollar probably being the best until potentially trust is lost
in the dollar, so a long answer there, but I don't think it's
ultimately necessary. It's just that most everybody in
the planet hasn't like ever operated under a framework word.
It wasn't you know the Baseline. Yeah.
So you said something really interesting there and I want to
focus on because usually I'll put it this way Dylan.
We're definitely in the somewhat younger generation of big
Corners, right? You you're a bit younger than me
and I'm pretty young in the grand scheme of things as well.
And the reason I'm bringing that up is because the what the
statement that you just made holds a lot more weight for us
because we don't have an alternative like we like Bitcoin
for us is the way out if you're a little bit older.
Derp. I don't want to say, it doesn't
matter but, you know. I guess you could make the
argument. It doesn't affect you as much.
So, I guess my question to you Dylan is where does Bitcoin
play? Like what's Bitcoins role for
Our Generation? I'm specifically, I'm on the
younger side of the millennial. Generation your Jen's e.
So where does Bitcoin play into this?
Yeah. I mean it plays a big role and I
think you know in terms of wealth right?
Like gen Z is irrelevant Millennials are you know as as
irrelevant as any generation in history in terms of like wealth,
purchasing power. Now that transfer is happening,
you know, mostly through inheritance from Boomers or
going to be from Boomers to millennial generation and some
to Gen X as well. But, you know, I think it's,
it's more of an ability to not be stuck in the old world.
World. Right.
Like I approach Bitcoin at the same time as I'm approaching
Keynesian economic theory and like it was just obvious from
the fundamental level like what was not more fair or Equitable
but what I would prefer, right? Like what I wanted to do with my
personal power, that was very obvious choice, over the long
term. But if you've been grounded in
some framework or line of thinking, whether it's at a you
know, a business level or social level or even a political level
right like there it's just ingrained into people's heads
and And anything that operates outside of that box, doesn't
make sense is a logical is a scam as a fraud, whatever the
things they say about Bitcoin. But here it is, it's, you know,
so I wasn't, I'd blocks are coming in patch rates, at
all-time highs, right? Like the market saying
something, Absolutely. Do you do you worry a bit?
Do you worry about? And the reason I'm saying this
is what I've tended. What I've tended to notice the
pattern that have tended to notice and I kind of want to
loop back into this concept of of Our Generations, and the
reason I'm bringing it up is you know, you mentioned it earlier.
Dylan, the few under the age of 35, you don't own anything so
does it. Worry you a bit that Would have
tended to notice, is that specifically the younger?
You are the complete lack of interest in something like
Bitcoin. People, people seem to seek to
continue to seek political Solutions.
And what I've also tended to notice also is that they blame
capitalism for a lot of the woes of central planning, really a
Fiat money. So what are your thoughts on
that? I think that's that's that at
that's dead on set. That accurate there is a certain
political nihilism to my generation.
I've seen it with yours as well, you know, kind of a
left-leaning, or at the very least a polarization.
But at the, you know, at my age gen Z like there is a very much,
you know, ideological Cult of social pressure to like conform
to this certain, you know, fundamental reality.
That just somehow came out of nowhere right?
Which is, you know, two plus two equals equals 5 and then and you
know we can blame all these things on capitalism capitalism
is is the greatest wealth and wealth producer.
But not wealth producer like or wealth creation, but standard of
living increase, like because of the capitalist Innovations and
Ingenuity. So, you know, that's it's
illogical, right? But I think ultimately, you
know, economic reality and Darwin is ISM, as harsh as that
sounds, is always going to impose itself.
And, you know, things like these political ideas, work in theory
and not in practice, right? America is open Capital markets
where the global Reserve currency and when would that
reality without being able to close your capital account, like
China would money is going to flow to where its treated best.
So any of these mmt Fantasyland things CBO budget just came out
today. Said, you know, 2032 comes in To
gdps, right? Where it's at right?
You know, we're just we're just going to sew to fund all this
entitlements to fund, every all of this, the spending over the
next decade, the Green Revolution, whatever it, maybe
right, maybe cancel this, some student debt Etc.
It's all going to be, you know, basically monetized via the fed
or another. Another government entities
balance sheet. There are no structural buyers
of the debt and so your purchase power roads away with as fast as
a spec, it does the money. Any printer?
So I think that's, that's the bull case for Bitcoin is just
like it's just math. And when you say that, it sounds
like super bold to someone that hasn't done the homework or kind
of work through the game theory. But like, you know what,
salesman reality of this of this debt situation that were in an
experiment of right we're 50 years in.
So where does the where do we go?
And I think my answer is obviously it's debasement.
So where do you want to put your money?
Yeah they have no option but to print a I agree with you but
dealing you said something very interesting right which is
political ideas, you know, these political ideas, they work and
they work in theory but in reality it's a different story
but I think history has shown that.
You can surely impose those political ideas on a populist or
a significant amount of time and of course reality snaps back but
it's crazy how long they can hold on, right?
And specifically He let you know the exempt.
Just just to mention one that to dive deep into that but Soviet
Union, right? Yes.
How many it's a good thing is like 70, 80 years, right?
So I guess the reason that I'm saying this, I'm bringing this
up is the Our Generation, the Millennials and gen Z
generation. I think loves entitlements man.
You know, they love that idea of entitlements.
I think the idea of entitlements is only possible with Fiat money
with that money printer with Spending.
Don't you think that a lot of hostility is going to be is
going to be at least pointed at the thing that a lot of people
are going to perceive as responsible for those
entitlements being taken away from them and I guess I would
reference really the predictions in the book, The sovereign
individual where he said just that right?
A lot of people living in this old system in this giant you
know, welfare Giant Straw city of a welfare state and all of a
sudden, those entitlements that you fundamentally believe that
you're, you know, that you that you deserve are just ripped out
of your own hands. And I guess bitcoiners are in
the crosshairs for that. Yeah, yeah, for sure.
I mean that's that's, you know, not the cause but that's the
that's the solution but the the political, you know, opposition
to it and the Really the psyops right from a from a narrative
perspective, propaganda will be very intense.
I think that maybe this is a little nihilistic, a little sad,
but it's more. So like there's there's kind of
a return in this shift, right in this like big fourth turning
kind of thesis. We're like technological
advancement has brought us this far.
And now, you know, the monetary system has brought us this far
and there's kind of this this Line in the Sand, but it's not
Line in the Sand. It's not like one Event Horizon.
But really if you think, I've like what the 2020s are, I've
already brought us and what where they're going, right?
What are the the world economic forum's, great plans for us and
to create a human race of basically cattle and this, you
know, technological panopticon dystopia and it'll be more of an
individual level about Whether you want to opt out of that
system of global control and compliance and and, you know,
one of the keys there on that checklist is Sovereign monetary
or Sovereign economic autonomy. So, so if you don't have that,
then you have nothing, you can't.
You know, if you could if you can go anywhere in the world
with your money and your head in theory, that's pretty powerful
in a world that's you know, increasingly polarizing and
bifurcating and you know who knows where you are.
Your political situation is there and so it's all relative
game and I think having that flexibility and freedom for
someone that's that's, you know, young for someone in their 20s,
never mind that regardless of your age, you know, if you if
you want that economic sovereignty in the digital age
is probably not really many other places to look for that
list of economic empowerment. Nothing else is as important as
money. Ultimately, as a tool, in my
opinion, I guess food. Sheltered the basics.
But yeah. So so Bitcoin is right in the
middle of this whole thing but it'll be at an individual level.
Maybe a you could say of corporate level, some Will
Survive, but not everyone is going to, you know,
quote-unquote, make it. And that's somewhat of like a
harsh reality of this of this transition.
The goal is to get as many people, you know, if we're right
here like everybody, we want Bitcoin in everyone's hands but
it's, you know, up to the individual to do that, that's
not on. On us.
Why don't you? Yeah, I wish I could so Dylan,
the last couple of really it's been the last couple of months
if you've been paying attention but the how do I put this the
just I guess I'll put it bluntly the hostility by v b
Administration towards the industry.
I think they were waiting for an excuse They're waiting for an
excuse to, you know, and with that excuse they denied Caitlin
loans Bank custodia bank from getting a Federal Banking
Charter and then right as of right now there, you know, their
next Target is stable coins, right?
We know that they made an example of Kraken 30 million
dollar fine with the staking, maybe it's because we're slaves
to the new Cycles at simply Bitcoin.
We have to cover the news every single day, but it just
definitely does look Look targeted sophisticated, and
there's this very excellent piece that laid it out by Nick.
Carter called operation chokepoint 2.0 and he really
laid it out. He really made the case with all
the examples, not to mention the Senator Elizabeth Warren and
Senator Marshall, Bill that would require Bitcoin developers
in the United States are registered with the federal
government to develop for like, absolutely Bonkers that you can
see this in America. But clearly there is a, there's
an agenda there. So, what are your thoughts on
all of this? And I think it could tie in with
What you were saying not too long ago.
Yeah. I mean I think definitely that
took Point comparison is valid. I think also we should we should
be realistic and recognize and I simply Bitcoin has definitely
been one of the media arms covering this that has
recognized it. There's a whole boatload of
Fraud and, you know, all sorts of shenanigans with crypto
companies and, you know, the ponzi's and everything else that
touched hands with the US. As banking system that touched
hands with Silver Gate signature FTX, you know, these stable.
But there's always a hot pile of money, you know, of course, you
know, billions of dollars of Leverage, you know, you know,
between counterparties and everything else.
And there was a lot of fraud, kind of in that whole basket or
bubble, right? So so the response is one that I
would fully expect from US banking system and that's to
ramp it up to the point where, you know, only the Sterling
companies are or you know, like just for Fred the finance be USD
coin from paxos, right? Finance was doing sensor
Shenanigans with a peg of that of that etherium based a coin
and creating their own by net, smart chain base table coin, but
they didn't back it up and we'll all the time.
And they were, you know, counting at the same on their
platform. So the New York Financial
Service, I forget the exact name, NY DFS came in, said back
to us know, you're done. You know, you can only redeem.
Now you can order to create stable coins and you guys got a
year to basically get out of that.
That. So yeah, it's coming.
I think it's not the end of the world.
It's, you know, certainly u.s. Capital markets, the most
important but Bitcoin just going to Route Around, it's going to
do its thing. It's a global phenomenon.
And and, you know, I think it'll make another all-time high at
some point and I really don't care what that timeline is to
get there. I don't say, expect some shop
for a little bit while we kind of chop through this macro
situation. But, you know, that the US has
an open Capital markets. All right, so so they can't stop
all capital from coming. This thing, it's essentially
just a Global Currency pair, so there will be liquidy and that
will probably be eventually they're going to attempt to
consolidate that between the incumbents right bny Mellon and
JP Morgan and her maybe not JPMorgan, but the incumbent is
right? And then the legacy is just in
the Legacy system serving as those rails and not as you know
and not for coinbase or whoever else is is really doing a lot of
volume with the Legacy system. Mmm, I think that's what they're
really trying to get to get a hold of.
So interesting. So you don't you don't think
it's necessarily an attempt to slow down the adoption of
Bitcoin. You think it's a legitimate
government response at the Fallout from the ft x debacle.
Yeah I mean and not to give the government any said legitimacy I
think there's quite a lot of reasons to point that they are
completely illiterate the illegitimate but aside Point
like you know that's a system where operating under and you
know you can't just go create Around back, right?
Like that's there is a there is a cartel of sorts, a regulatory
cartel globally with the u.s. kind of operating as that had
point. So, you know, they're going to
try to starve the Beast a bit but you can't write Bitcoins a
10, you know, 10 million 100 million headed Hydra this point.
And so you know the cats out of the bag, it's just a matter of
you know, that it's been in the end, they fight you stage for a
little bit. I just you know Bitcoin just
keeps going back, stronger and stronger.
Sure. And they're like, oh shit, you
know, but they can't kill it. So I'm really not all that
worried, to be honest, maybe that's a little bit naive
though. No.
You know, up the joke about this all the time we say, we're just
going to have to move till Salvador.
Would you be willing to move to El Salvador Dylan Leclair if
things really did get hairy, you know, I would probably be
willing to move anywhere depending on how you define bad
but gonna probably stay in the West for a little bit.
And then maybe, you know, who knows?
I'll settle down a few different places which El Salvador, maybe
he's one. I have this infatuation somewhat
with the kind. Playing out the sovereign
individual digital Nomad thesis for a little bit over the coming
years. I mean that's the plan for my
next year essentially and so we'll see where it goes but now
Salvador is definitely, you know, it's looking good.
Yeah, I tried it for a bit, it's fun, but it does kind of feel
like your home is a bag. So, I guess that's cool.
Definitely cheap though. That's the good.
That's, I guess the, the pros for it.
Anyways, Dylan, don't you think that this, you know, potentially
is forcing Bitcoin businesses overseas?
And I think that was one of the main talking points that I've
heard against this, this onslaught of Regulation.
Yeah, I mean, potentially right. Like it's certainly making a lot
more challenging for the even though the legitimate actors
here and it slows things down. I don't think it's an argument
there but like, you know, there's a, there's a reason for
the the scrutiny, right? It's like the largest players in
this industry were all, you know, in some ways.
Fraudulent lied. There was a huge daisy chain and
now, you know, like, like even not to not to go down this
Rabbit Hole to this time but like, there's legitimately
massive question marks regarding the world's biggest Bitcoin
could go play right now which is financed, right?
And they're like basically not allowed to operate in the US the
kind of Shadow operating in the US was by Nance us.
But like they and essentially right there like seven, fifty
sixty percent of all crypto trading volume right now and
kind of liquidity, right? So and that's just a massive.
It's a massive black box so I'm not like throwing shade at
Finance. It's just the reality that like,
it's way more nascent than I would have thought.
Even in 2023, which is super great because that means it's
cheap, and it still has massive potential and it's going, it's
barely just a teenager, but we, Recognize like it's barely just
a teenager. A lot of people don't really
understand this thing at all and you know, someone operates fraud
via, you know, the Bitcoin or whatever crypto, right.
And it's like someone in nineteen eighty or ninety
saying, like, you know, the internet enables fraud and
scamming it's like, yeah, of course it does.
It's just, you know, it's not the internet's fault, it's not
the protocol assault. So that's just an education
process. And then, you know, we're both
blessed with plenty of time to just kind of watch the Cards
cards fall. Absolutely let's see, let's see
where this rollercoaster ride takes us.
So you mentioned by Nance. Now I think Finance is very
interesting because don't they have the BNB token, aren't they
just issuing their own money? Like isn't that very similar to
whatever the exit and then not to mention we don't know.
Like they've been you know it's been very hard Finance hasn't
showed their book their books and say last raise the money.
I think the last time there is money was like in Right.
So how would we know? We don't know and they do have a
token, they're not you know, in theory, they could change the
date. I mean they are operating, the
validators are like they could change the monetary policy in
theory and practice, they have, you know, 60 to 70, estimated
percent of all tokens of this, you know, fifty billion dollar
asset that they, you know, that definitely had an incentive to
pump. And it's, you know, kind of
wildly, uh, performed everything even Bitcoin to the downside,
which doesn't never happens. So there's questions and That
you know, really brought them up and people have said it's fight
or I'm delusional or whatever. And I'm just saying like hey
guys like you know, this thing's had a fifty billion dollar
market cap with only it only trades in one place and their
assets and liabilities are a black book because they don't
have to show you them and they're saying, hey here's a
proof of assets report and I'm like assets, don't matter at
all. And it's really not enough to
say like I trust your word for it.
So I'm not saying like sees you as an agenda is bad or whatever.
I'm just saying like There's obviously periods where they're
proof of Reserve wallets have changed switch them up.
They've they've commingled corporate funds and Recovery
funds and customer funds and admitted to it.
You know, they said here's a billion and be USD for Industry
Recovery and we're like hey you sent that from the customers
wallets like a day ago and their response essentially a blog post
was like oh no like our security our internal exchange security
so good that we use corporate funds for in the same wallet.
That was the response. Like the pr They did tweeted
this out and I raise that up. If you were like Fudd, fun, fun
fun. And I'm like, guys, like, okay,
it's fun. The like, I don't have an
agenda, like, I'm just like saying, like it's just, you
know, take control of what you own is something, bad happens.
It's all entire than yourself, like, you signed up for this and
you were trusting. Someone that yeah, doesn't.
Whoo. How you going to enforce
responsibility? If something bad happens?
Not your keys and your coins. Apply.
Stephen, you know, Nico like you're my friend, I trust you,
man. But like you're like, hey I'll
hold this pick one for you. Don't worry, I got it.
I'm like, yeah, maybe I trust you but eventually if I don't
and you scan me then, you know, I got scammed like, I his my
fault, and I think just there's been a lot of hard lessons but
like, you know, not unfortunately, like I just hope
there's not more hard lessons to come.
And I think at some point there will be and not saying it's
with, you know, the biggest elephant in the room or not, I'm
just Saying like that we've seen this stuff, repeat through the
history of Bitcoin, there's this ongoing process and I you know,
unfortunately we regretfully say that the next Bull Run.
We will see, you know, 10x to Shenanigans.
We see, we saw this past bull market in terms of people losing
funds scams, you know, phishing scams kyc all this, all this
crazy stuff. So maybe that's pessimistic as
well. But I think you were just going
to we're going to go through another cycle.
It's going to be 10x crazier. It's going to be 10x.
The the amount of Fraud and that's you know a blessing in
the curse of this decentralized, you know, internet money
monetizing from scratch. It's just it's very darwinistic.
Yeah, did I completely agree? I think you know the was the
first one Mount gox. Right?
And then it just progressively. Just got bigger and bigger last
blow up, you literally have Tom Brady and mr.
Wonderful involved and they were spokesman for you know the the
the FTX organization. So yeah and I agree maybe
perhaps. Next time a nation state will be
involved, you know it. I know it Ponzi like It sounds
ludicrous. But if I told you what happened,
this Earth, this past year that with FTX stuff, if I told you
about the penthouse and the Bahamas and all that stuff and I
told you about that five years ago, you would have laughed me
out of the room. So yeah it's it's definitely
definitely Wild West for sure. So I want to focus on something
that you were mentioning earlier and I think that's a very
interesting topic and that's something that I've heard from
people and I would say it's more so of a disillusionment and when
I'm talking about Dylan is The fact that bind the B&B token has
outperformed Bitcoin like even even aetherium that wasn't the
case etherium still hasn't made an all-time high in Bitcoin, but
if you're looking at the by Nance token, it has performed.
It has outperformed Bitcoin which is extremely rare.
Like you said, is that due to manipulation and of course,
we're all speculating here. There's absolutely no way to do
know this because it's all, you know, it's all the behind the
behind the scenes, but what's your take on that?
What's going on there and your opinion.
My take on it is that there was an obvious incentive in 2021
with the Bitcoin. Broadly crypto, you know, pumped
where we saw three trillion dollars of my have imaginary
wealth creation of probably just you know in aggregate.
Let's say 100 maybe 200 billion dollars of capital inflow.
That's 200 billion could be really generous maybe 100
billion total, maybe less than that.
Could be 50 billion and raw us cash coming in.
To this crypto ecosystem, where it, you know, got levered up,
you know, with the D5 stuff I got levered up as phosphate
funds tried, you know, cash-and-carry GPT, see starting
at you know 9 K 10 K buying up 100,000 150,000 Bitcoin.
Sailor punting his corporate not punting but like you know just
all in this corporate treasury buys another 100,000 Bitcoin
relatively Supply, an elastic, its source, Bitcoin goes to the
moon and and you know the The theory Vault season, right?
Is this pair, whatever it this trading pair of you know,
altcoin BDC and whatever this altcoin is worth and there's
really a lot of these things are injured intrinsically doesn't
matter if they have value like the the mean coins are literally
just a nihilistic Financial form of gambling that's you know Less
Than Zero Sum because the exchange for takes their fees.
But given this flying elasticity of these things and the
volatility you know there's there's it's so illiquid right
the bit asks are crazy. Wide.
So little bit of money on either side just moons the thing,
right? And so all coin out performance
is a big narrative but in particular if you look like the
biggest, the best performers during this kind of height
phase, it was like exchange tokens, right?
You saw Celsius, go Bonkers, you saw ft x KO F TT, go bonkers the
same time you know, by Nance, you know, trailed ftts a
performance by a couple weeks I might have that flipped it might
be financed went first and FTX started going insane but they
all perform Bitcoin like crazy and The other smaller market
caps for sure. We less capital inflow but but
people only look at the percent returns and you know, they'll
all of those things crash the correlation and and you know
illiquidity traded both ways you know as volatile asset to the
upside more volatile than big ones, the downside as well.
And B&B was like kind of this weird Financial anomaly where as
you know 200 300 Vol asset in a bull market and a bear Market
where Bitcoin is you know no, after its kind of all settled
down Bitcoins a it's called it a 80 Vol asset.
B & B is just around the same. It's a little higher but not
double, not triple, like it wasn't a bull market in like
those things. Make me scratch my head.
I can't I can't, you know, know anything there.
But ask yourself what the incentive is to pump your thing
that you won't 70 billion of. And the thing is, the thing that
makes me fishy. It's like, you know, a smart
Capital allocator, if they created Created money, created
an asset from nothing and it within five years, For years,
the thing was worth. Total market cap, 100 billion
and you had 50 of that and, you know, you can unload that 50%
into the market but it would in theory makes sense to like take
some chips off the table. If you were an unbiased capital
allocator and the fact that they're like, oh we've never
sold any and we don't leverage against it's like, okay then
what is the point of holding it? There is no point.
So so if you're never going to sell it because you don't want
it, that to impact the market of the down side where there's no
real natural buyers, right? You're the primary Maker.
You're the primary liquidity. That's your all the liquidity
financed platform. You're not, you can't really
sell any. So the thing that I would worry
about in the reason FTX went down was because they were
borrowed a collateralized against the solvency of the, the
aggregate system, their collateralized against Iran, the
fiend token. So I haven't I couldn't prove
the finance. It's doing that.
Do I think that's it's you know, majority chance they are.
I don't, I mean I hope not. But certainly the a performance
is Is, is noteworthy and not really know where the integrate
way. It's not worthy and like, a very
suspect way, my opinion. So I'm going to be wrong there.
Of course, I'm not accusing them of anything, but I would
encourage people to be more skeptical of the world in
general. These are not outrageous things
to ask your post forward. It's not fun.
It's like basic due diligence. So, yeah, that's my thoughts on
that. Interesting.
Yeah, and I agree that it is kind of.
It is kind of like this, this weird, Only right?
It is strange and then right? What's that?
It is a very famous. Saying, rise.
If you don't understand, like, just look at the incentives.
And yeah, totally incentivize to to manipulate it to his benefit
and I think you pointed out the lack of liquidity is interesting
if you want to sell a lot, anyways, for get carried away.
So doing I think a lot of people last bull market or let down.
I think a lot of people were anticipating 100K Bitcoin,
minimum I come from the school of thought, that it's
interesting how the CCP band Bitcoin mining, right at the
perfect time in the Bitcoin bull market.
And that, you know, shortly after we had a massive price
crash songs with the hash rate. So we're you one of those people
and you know I could say I was definitely on a personal level.
Were you one of those people that were expecting 100K Bitcoin
the lat? Bull market and Y, then we hit
that it, we're people overly bullish, there's this Theory,
also diminishing returns just kind of, makes sense, right?
It's a lot harder for Bitcoin to get from 50k to 100K than it was
for it to get from a dollar to two dollars, right?
So what are your thoughts on this?
And a lot of people see, it Dylan is the opportunity are
people late to bitcoin. No, I don't.
People are late and answer question.
I was at the time I was Pretty pretty bullish on the price
action, kind of an in the spring.
Obviously I was you know at over 100 percent of my net worth and
Bitcoin by the summer of 2020. Kind of acquiring really any
leverage. I could irresponsible but as a
19-0 as a 19 year old kid like transparently I was I was doing
that pumped like crazy retrace, with the China stuff still, you
know, fall asleep. Long got got some call option
exposure and a bunch of other mining plays in the summer. 21
and read those rather is pretty high and then fully round trip.
Like I have a hot or stack, I don't touch it.
I'm constantly adding to it IDC. A given my job as a market
analyst and someone looking at data and markets in hours a day
like I also have something like a portfolio book where our
actively manage it a little bit more.
So you know, I buy some Equity sometimes I short, equities,
bonds options, all these other things, and I don't like to
given the size of my like, audience now that I kind of Just
stumbled into. I don't like to like transparent
not transparently to my book, but I don't like the, you know,
post my book all the time. I might look meaning like you
know, whether I'm buying this or selling that, oh, occasionally,
but I won't have to disclose it because I don't think, I don't
want to influence my followers to do this for that.
Other than, like, say for yourself a long term, I think
it's a pretty reasonable position to kind of put forward,
but no, I didn't, I didn't sell the top.
I wish I wish I did. You know, in hindsight is always
20/20 but, you know, since I think, First quarter of 2021 by
2022. Rather I'm sorry when it's
pretty clear that the kind of the credit system, the economic
tide was turning a little bit. You know that the didn't make
the foot perfect Edna 2021 of November.
But once it was clear that okay the bond markets has to sell off
here because inflation's you know six seven hundred basis
points over you know all durations of the yields you know
we're in for some pain and kind of liquidity suck.
And I think we're still in that I like I still think a recession
is coming. The economy is surprisingly
resilient and nominal terms, but I do think we're headed for
somewhat of a kind of the debt that unwind.
But right we just saw massive wealth destruction in 2022 from
all time bubble, everything bubble highs and you just look
at like what the wealth effect does to a real economy on a lag.
And there's, you know, there's certainly some contraction
coming in my opinion and so, so Bitcoins going to do extremely
well over the long term but like the Only reason I pay attention
to any of this economic data and cycles and everything else are
at post. The FED funds rate Futures, like
why that's the fascinates me is because, you know, we're always
focused hyper focused on the numerator BTC, which is, which
is the important thing here. But from an exchange rate
perspective, there's going to be times and asymmetric times at
that, for the USD component of all, this is going to be the
driving force. It's going to be the reason
Bitcoin takes up ticks down and we've often see we saw that on a
lot of 2022, right? So I mean today, Bitcoins up
eight 10 percent equity. He's our, you know, mildly
green, that's pretty encouraging to see and it shows someone of
like a supply-demand mismatch at least locally, you know, maybe
like sellers in aggregate are exhausted after getting
absolutely pummeled over the last year but Bitcoin has ever
since Global asset, right? As it's monetizing on when
everyone's balance sheet around the world bitcoiners should
recognize and I think even honestly be encouraged by the
fact that Bitcoin is trading with global liquidity as the
dollar strengthens. You know, and and on an
aggregate, everybody short dollars in this financials, this
current monetary system. And so as if for some reason the
dollars, right, like just this basic math, like denominator USD
is increasing the numerator. BTC is just all else being
equal, right? And Bitcoin exchange rate drops
a little bit. Like I think that's a natural
and I think that's a good thing and it shows Bitcoins maturing
and that you know there's gonna be a lot more liquidity that can
flood into this thing as a monetary asset.
But people were, you know, monetize bonds.
People might ask equities He's right.
And then, as now, bonds are sold off and equities are more
expensive relative to bonds than ever, right?
So people are still have a psych monetary premium for equities as
like the store value. But now that's a right here.
Like the interesting thing is that sand P has like an earnings
yield right now this year, five percent but you can also get
that risk-free risk-free as in you know the government is going
to pay you by printing press or by force via taxation but that
that's short-term steps plan. 5% to So stocks are now in this
weird place where like they're down 20% from the highs but
they're more overvalued relatively than they've been in
decades. So like this whole kind of
unwind I think has yet to play out in full.
I think Bitcoin you know if there is some massive risk off
Rally or risk-off downturn Bitcoins not going to be
insulated, I think that's natural but could the bottom be?
And of course you know 50 16k 15K like half the industry went
bankrupt, right? Right.
Like I didn't show up all my Chips in the middle at 16th and
I'm totally fine with that. I got it back, right.
So I think everyone's really focused on like this, the
bottom. And, you know, like and that's
fair, right? Like I would have loved to it,
call it to the T, but I also think that, you know, we should
be prepared for anything and if Bitcoin wix2 10K because, you
know, the financial system blows up tomorrow.
Like, that shouldn't change your position.
All right. So like just having that ability
to tolerate volatility to the upside and downside is it's
something that you should have. If you have a long-term Outlook,
Absolutely Dylan. One of the things that you
mentioned, and I kind of want to double back on that, right?
Which is in your mentioning, you said that there could be a
potential contraction in 2023 and this is actually a similar
question. I see dr.
Jeff Ross and the chat I asked him this when he came on the on
the pot a couple weeks ago. And you know what the way that
I'm seeing it is rightly the what the, you know, the central
Bankers have been telling us over the last couple months,
right? Just it's going to be a soft
Landing. Everything's going to be okay.
But so far right you have the employment numbers.
They were pretty solid they're pretty good.
So I mean were they able to pull this off?
Were they able to print this ungodly amount of money with
absolutely no consequence or do you believe this is the Calm
before the storm? And the reason I'm saying that
is because I saw a tweet that you posted two images and it was
fascinating, was like, yeah, the US economy is fine.
Everything is going to be happening.
You At the date since 2007. So of course, you know, we're
not fortune tellers, we can't read into the future, but what
does your gut tell you till in the Claire?
Yeah, my gut tells me and I'm prepared for really any outcome,
but I got tells me that we got some, we got some ugliness to
turn through. I you know it's like the
conversation has gone from our Landing to soft Landing to like
no Landing no recession and I think and I am not not held
accountable but, you know, put me in this Camp as well as
thinking the downturn as theirs as a result of this kind of re
ratchet higher. Interest rates and then you know
the duration value of all these assets, right?
When money was free on the cost of capital in real terms was -
the value of everything else was in theory infinite it just
didn't compute. So we have this Global
everything bubble interest rates in the market, essentially
forced the FED to tighten a short-term interest rates, kind
of, you know, went to the moon because of this inflation.
Right. And here we are and I think this
isn't, you know, Max Payne. I mean for Bitcoin or Krypto or
your favorite, you know, social media app, ticker, right Ike.
The bottom could, you know, Wick, it could be very well in,
but I think people should just look too.
Similar analogy is whether it's 2,000, you know, 2008, whether
it's the 2000 Tech, boom, Tech bust, whether it's the 70s
inflation, right? And you should look at hike
interest rates Cycles. You should look at SP and you
can and you should like look at how long these things
potentially take to play out. As well as like you know the
kind of the crazy relative rallies from from the local
bottoms that assets have right? That's indy500.
Didn't-didn't bottom for 24 to 36.
I think it was 30 months after the top and tech stocks and the
S&P 500 would have 50 percent right?
So it's the tech. Boom and wasn't even known as a
real. Real bad reception and that some
people hundred still fell 50 percent, right.
So like I think it's just whether it's Bitcoin or not like
you know Bitcoin went down, 80 75 percent.
Right. Like certainly painful but I
think yeah, mentally you should prepare for for, you know, a
good amount of chop. I think we got some some real
pain essentially and that in that the global economy to come
and and the US will be at the relatively the best in the best
position. Our Capital markets will be the
best potentially and the dollars going to be relatively great
place to be compared to all these other developed market and
Emerging Market currencies. But the dollar will still be
devaluing in real purchasing power terms and I think you know
monetary repression Financial repression, you know, inflation
above interest rates, even if it's 6% inflation and 5% or
maybe they even, you know, get that CPI annual number down to
34 percent. While their short-term rates are
at 55 and a half, maybe I'd happens for a little bit but on
a long enough time frame, they can't do that with that.
The GDP at 100 120 percent. You can't you Have to get the
real debt burdens down the CBO just came out today.
Projecting you know that you to GDP 10 years from now to be at
the same level right? So they're not even really
projecting any grounds made up there just going to tack on
another 10 trillion a debt right just create more money injected
in the banking system and I think we're going to see that
that that theory doesn't really work.
Well it's not going to be it's not gonna be a flat linear line,
right? Of productivity and debt like
there. Kind of projecting on these
models and the reality of this debt, overhang and Global debt
levels and all demographics is going to kind of lead to some
really nasty. I'm lines, like, we've already
seen economic Cycles. Kind of, like, we did, we jacked
the money full of the, the world economy, full of funny money, we
didn't really even make it 18 months without that, that that
kind of real economic activity turning over, right?
Like, we still have a really hot economy and inflation terms.
In nominal terms, but adjust that for inflation, we're not
growing. This isn't growth, right?
It's just it's you know, apathetic lethargic and we have
an aging population of Boomers that are about to end.
You know, all go into retirement and sit back on there, you know,
on their yacht and their second home.
While the Millennials don't own anything, right?
So like there's really interesting Dynamic at play
here. It's going to it's going to take
a while but I think that whether I don't think a recession, a
strong one is in the cards for 2023.
I think that's honestly a story. That could could go into 2024
and you know like like hold you hold Bitcoin.
Have some stuff that it doesn't matter what the next 18, 24
months of price action have, but like I feel very comfortable,
having a whole large chunk of Bitcoin and a good chunk of
dollars ready to buy Bitcoin or anything else and he's like, I
think it's not it's not a kind of linear device debasement and
that some points you have periods where the dollars
actually you know Increase in purchasing power, in an
asymmetric way, relative everything else, right?
As a function of these delivery things as a function of a credit
system, kind of unwinding. So that's kind of why I have a
little both try to, you know, balance that those two.
So, I want to pull up this this image because I think it's a
good visual representation of the situation that you were
explaining and and I think Lynn put it perfectly right?
The US Treasury Department, actually published this and for
all Listeners. Right.
It has historical and projected and then it has a metric that
says debt held by public. And it just it, dude, it's
absolutely crazy, dude. So this is what you're talking
about, right? Yeah.
And that's that's basically mmt visualize that.
I mean, that's that's a not a free market.
That is the nationalization of everything and the sense
essentially, the implementation of communist.
I mean, because okay, if you think about what seven hundred
percent, Debt to GDP is right. Like that means that for, you
know, the populace creates 10 trillion, dollars of
productivity. And there's seven seventy
trillion dollars of debt to be paid off to the government
itself, right? So so what is it?
It's like an indentured servitude by your own
governmental body, right? For the collective like like
what is that Finance they financially that's like
literally then implementation of top-down communism.
That sounds like super super dark and maybe a little bit
hyperbolic but like I think my my my response to that chart is
that the US has opened Capital markets at least for now, right?
Unless there's some drastic change and that the money is
going to flow worth. Reinvest the guy.
You should, you should pull up. If you think about Bitcoin Versa
dollar ticker or really anything like everything is relative
hair, you should pull up a chart of the the US dollar relative
the Arjun Arjun time pay. So it's usda-ars I believe.
And and look at the daily weekly monthly candles of this thing
and it's actually crazy to visualize just this, this
unbelievable debasement and I don't know if you can pull it up
now or you have that prepared but it is it is just quite a
amazing charcoal. Look at it was I mean it, you
feel bad for the there's there's no drop.
There's no drawdowns, right? It's just a steady dose of
devaluation every single day. It's systematic political and
the reality is their data is actually much better.
Much better than the actual situation but to a less drastic
extent. This I think of Bitcoin
interacting with the dollar, right?
It's obviously a lot more volatile Bitcoin has this kind
of wild card in the room that anybody can flood to and
oftentimes flood to it once which leads to these crazy crazy
explosions but it's all relative game, right?
So it's the dollar. They're literally telling you to
your face, they're going to continue to print this thing.
And so, you know, I think, natural economics, human
incentives are To play a big, big force, and people are going
to go where your money is treated best.
Just like, look at that. It's just, it's just up only man
and that even that did the daily chart looks the same.
It's just like, literally there's not even a red candle,
it's insane. It's absolutely wild.
And then that reminds me of the I'm glad that you brought up
Argentina, right? The recent Bloomberg article and
what they were remember reporting this not too long ago
like a couple weeks ago 95 percent inflation.
Now it's up to 99 percent inflation.
That's absolutely wild and What's really interesting also
is that they obviously they went to the IMF, they wanted, you
know, a debt deal and part of that deal the IMF was like hey
we'll give it to you but you must adopt Yuma.
You must be incentivize the adoption of Bitcoin in the
country, dude, it's wild man. So like I don't know what do you
think about the 99 percent inflation?
The hostility from the IMF which obviously makes perfect sense.
But what are your thoughts on all that?
Yeah, I mean I think again, this is kinda to Circle back to what
we said at the beginning. Like this is an individual's
game and and you know there's there's certainly a level of
competent, a financial literacy and technological, literacy
required to, you know, adopt the coin in the self Sovereign way.
But I can assure you that there a Bitcoin black markets just
like they're in a Argentina not to encourage Black Market
activity but they're not official dollar peso exchange
rate you Just put on the screen. That's the official one, that's
not the that's not the street price which is actually much
worse, right? All right.
And you know much much stronger for the pay, so we can for the
dollar, that's the government, the Government rate, right?
So inflation is actually much much worse.
All right. So that's Teddy it, that the
market phenomenon is actually create that perfect chart.
It's the government literally just giving you the inflation
data or the pressing data that's cooked, right?
The official exchange rate. And so I think that, you know,
people are going to adopt Quentin the self-serving way
because I've talked to people that have done it in South
America, I've talked, I've talked to people that have, you
know, actively fled regimes or secured their wealth in, you
know, emerging markets and all over the world, right?
So I think, you know, it's an education thing obviously, you
know, it's it takes a while back when still very young, but it's
for certain people for families for companies.
You know? It's a having something that is
a liability. 82. No one is an extremely powerful
thing and honestly, like still I'm pretty bullish on like the
adoption of, you know, like for instance like tether on Tron is
extremely popular is tether like the best thing for people to
store all their families. I'll even know.
But you know, these people want dollars, they want something
that's, you know, stable to them on a day-to-day basis.
I know the dollar purchasing power isn't stable but on a
week-to-week day-to-day basis for, for for these people, it's
extremely stable. And so they you know, that
adoption I think is a bridge but ultimately You're talking about
the rugs and the collapses earlier.
I'm not saying tethers, bad or not.
I'm just saying like there's a liability there, right there.
They're issuing you this trusted, you know, token and
they can freeze it. They can steal it.
They can, you know, Take the Money and Run, right?
It's there's a liability bacon there and I'll stable Queens
have that model for now. Decentralized Solutions are
attempting to be built but we're not there yet you know SATs on
the lightning Network dollars on the lightning Network these Taro
protocol. It's really interesting stuff.
We don't really have the implementation of it yet.
But I think ultimately Bitcoin on chain, but really, mostly
lightning adoption quickly onboard users is, you know, the
the kill not, you know, one of the killer apps for Bitcoin and
we've just scratched the surface there.
It's, I mean, we're really in year maybe one and a half of
lightning being good enough to kind of actually operate on a
meaningful scale and some would even say we're not even at that
point yet, so that's going to go exponential and it's not even
going to be exactly expressed Actually into the exchange rate
at Elliot at first, right? And the same way that the
grayscale are born. Michael sailor 5x the Bitcoin
price, you know, with some leverage, Andy, John's in there,
helping, obviously. But, you know, this, you know,
millions and millions of people in developing markets,
onboarding on the lightning. And, you know, somewhat kind of
becoming familiar with Bitcoin as a medium of exchange and even
potentially unit of account earning Bitcoins earning SATs.
That's, that's what, you know. Why?
This thing is going to win, is not because regardless of what
the US does, regardless of what China does, like, people are
utilizing this instrument, this, this engineering solution, and I
think, I mean, you guys have a show on it every day, I talk
about this every day. It's very much, it's very
misunderstood. It takes a lot longer than I
thought it was going to take that education and, you know,
know a lot of people don't dive in and do 200 hours of reading
and learning on something, once they become a little fascinator
intrigued by it. The Bitcoin is the most
convincing In that are, you know, all screaming at each
other having late like have laser eyes like, yeah, they've
we've done that due diligence the conviction is a, you know,
natural response. But most people haven't, most
people are like, listen speculative, internet money is
cool things, you're telling me you're cool energy, markets, and
inflation and all this Yahoo stuff that you don't really
know. I'm a dentist.
I don't really care about any of this stuff.
I don't need to, I don't really want to invest my money.
I want to save, right? And you're trying to, like,
explain something to this. This person that is never even
stepped inside the world. You're trying to explain.
So it takes time. It's going to take.
I think a little bit longer than we think but you know there's
certainly a case where the gradually then suddenly aspect.
Is that play here? The question is like where are
we on that inflection point? I don't know, but I certainly
want to be along for the ride and will be.
So we will see ya man I'm being in the trenches with you.
Now you mentioned something and it's honestly something that
bothered me right? Which is specifically Trees that
have Financial privilege. They have country that countries
that have relatively stable, Fiat, currencies people are just
not incentivize. You said it like your dentist,
you just don't care. But what's really fascinating is
when you speak to an Argentine, you speak to a Venezuelan, then
you tell them about Bitcoin. It's like where do I sign up?
This sounds like a phenomenal idea.
That sounds like a great idea. So And I agree and Jeff Booth
came on the show. I was like, Hey like like aren't
you worried that this is happening and his response is
fascinating Dylan. He said the people that are
closest to the to the monopolies are the ones that, you know, are
going to be the latest to wake up, like, they're not
incentivised to wake up, they benefit from this system.
Yep. Yeah, that's that's perfectly
fine. You know, I there was, there was
a certain there was like a part of me in that kind of the orange
peel rabbit. The rabbit hole Journey, where I
was like, you know, begging begging and pleading with others
to explain this to them, you know to like regardless of who
it was right. It like friends, family
investors that I respected for and and I reach a certain point
where I'm so willing obviously to talk through the case, you
know, No help people understand my perspective or other people's
views on this thing and why they would buy it or hold it or do
XYZ with it. But you know, if you don't care,
if you think Bitcoin is a scam at this point, like that's fine,
right? Like big, yeah, exactly right.
Bitcoin is a scam. You're finally right this time.
It's crashing 20. And at like, and and they say,
volatility is something that like, I'm completely fine.
I've signed up for this, I've allocated accordingly.
You should too. And if you think that right,
allocation is zero, that's on you and and you know, I'm fine
with that. I had I can accept that and you
should accept the consequences of that because there's you know
what that does is it does a tail probability here?
And most bitcoiners think that it's the base case and not that
Tails Tails scenario at all we're this thing becomes you
know a global globally, dominant Reserve asset in potential you
know. Unit of account for, for
Baseline, value around around the world.
There's a, there's a tail risk of that.
If you, if you assign the probability zero, that's fine.
I don't think it's zero and I think it's, you know, probably
higher than most would like to think and so, and, you know,
accordingly, I want to own some right?
Like and describing, this is like a hundred percent sure
thing, hyper bit quantization. You know, I think that's where
you lose some people, at least, like, at least to come in,
right? Not to come in, not trying to
recruit you. I don't care if you buy Bitcoin
or not but like if you want to understand the thing I think
pitching it is like a sure bed is going to you know be worth
that hundred trillion dollars is like probably the wrong
approach. It's like it's it's I think it's
you know, being somewhat bullish but you know, reasonable
objective moderate in the in the pitch is little bit more
effective and that's maybe at the bear Market phenomenon.
Maybe it's like, you know, we should be Schilling just
Relentless and that's opium to get people to scoop keep SATs
but like I've taken with my Approach a little bit, I guess,
over the last few years in regards to like the response to
critics. Yeah, it did, it's definitely
very frustrating for sure. And I do want to go down that
opium route. I want to take advantage of the
last couple minutes on the podcast, and you were talking
about this potentially being adopted on a worldwide level and
there's this great piece from Kathy Woods Arc.
And she's talking about the bear case, the bear case, the base
case. The bull case the bull case.
One point four eight million base case. 682,000 are case 200
a 258,000. These numbers just don't come
from anywhere. She's making the case that
Bitcoin would take a percentage of digital money.
Institutional investment, seizure resistant assets,
economic settlement, Network Emerging Market currency nation,
state, treasury remittance asset corporate Treasury and of course
the bear and the bull, the percentages vary.
But what I find the most interesting is is the digital
gold one and the bear case would be twenty percent, which is
pretty high percentage wise and the bull one would be 50%.
So I don't know if you had a chance to look at this dealing
but you know, you were mentioning about Bitcoin
potentially being, you know, adopted on a worldwide level and
as you know, this is a good little graphic to pull up to, to
speak about that. So, I don't know, man.
What do you think of this? Is this pure hope IAM straight
into our veins. Yeah, I think.
The thing that I've learned is that, you know, to a certain
extent priced like price targets.
Fair value estimations Etc are great.
You know happy to hear those and you know potentially some
baseline scenarios but assigning a price and a timeline is for
something that's volatile. You know this nascent to the
upside and in a volatile upside and downside, right?
Like in 2015 who could have imagined in their right?
Mind that Bitcoin was going to touch 20,000.
It's just, it was just inconceivable and, you know,
subsequently, right? If you told someone in 20
January of 2018 and I write it weird it from 20K to 15K, you're
like, yeah, you know in 2023 Bitcoins going to be twenty
thousand dollars if they blow it wrong, right?
Like, and so that the, the wild swing of emotions is certainly
it's like something but I'm sorry, I kind of I went off on a
tangent and and forgot the purpose though.
It's all good. It's all good.
You're here. Being cautious and I think
you're totally taking it, right. You're totally taking the right
approach, you know? And you know you're saying
because I completely agree. I think that price targets into
the future, it's pure hope, IAM no one has anyone?
No one has any idea what they're talking about?
I just think it's interesting, maybe not So Much from the price
anticipation aspect like if we put that aside but more so from
the percentage of the the penetration, the penetration
percentage rate, and I think that's what's really interesting
to me, right? Specifically when it comes to,
for example, nation state treasury, you know, zero one
percent and 5 percent of the numbers she laid out digital
gold, 20 40, 50 %, institutional investment, 12.5 6.5%.
So I guess the question, I'm more responsible question for
you. Dylan would be are those numbers
even conceivable. Did you imagine a future where
Bitcoin is a well-respected because it has to be two in
order to get to those numbers? He's a well-respected,
institutional investment. Do you see that?
Because right now, we live kind of in this in, you know, in this
moment in time where, you know, Michael sailor named bouquet
lay, you know, they don't exactly look like they don't
exactly. Look like their moves were
intelligent. Of course, as bitcoiners were
bias and we know they're going to be Vindicated eventually as
number go up. Technology does his thing but I
don't know man. What's your take on that?
Yeah, I mean I think it's it's the it's just it's a global
Capital flight sponge and capital flight not in a
political dissident way but potentially in a political
dissident way but in a in a systematic way it's like leave
you think about all foreign exchange?
If you think about, you know, dollars against Japanese Yen.
It's a little 4X, a little different because like they both
have moving exchange rates. So there's also kind of an
exchange rate interest rate. Carry mechanism in those
relative things. But essentially, right?
Like if you think about the dollar, if you think about when
you're talking about, you know, Global debt to GDP Dynamics, you
know, why debt to GDP even matters?
And why do we see like these Global Wars break out at these
high inflection points of global debt to GDP?
And then war is coming, like somehow reset the table, and why
does that stuff happen in monetary systems?
Why a - are resets happen at these Global inflection points
and it's because Dad systems are two unsustainable.
Right? It's just they reach a point
where they can't be service. So that something has to be done
to revalue the real burdens and we're in the middle of the three
valuation with this kind of this in dose of inflation, they
mapped this out in 2014 15. That IMF came out.
They wrote a paper, they're like, how do we get this debt
levels down there? Like, oh, well, a steady dose of
inflation and you're basically it's a wealth transfer from the
creditors who are the creditors people that buy the long-term
debt, right? So this is the game that's being
played and Bitcoin is just sponge as Just this exit opt-out
vehicle, you know, whether it's like, you know, your DC a
saying, on on Swan, or strike or river or you're, you know,
you're in an emerging market and you're literally just, you know,
selling freaking, you know, you're selling food on the side
of the road to support your family and you're storing and
blue wallet in an open-source manner.
Like this is all this is all happening and it's all at a
relative game. So to bitcoin you know like a
fourth of the funny thing is like a 40 percent compound.
Well, growth rate is like the bear case, right?
Like / that in half, right? Like / /, the the, their bare
case Arc by 75% and and have it be a 25 percent the size of that
of that bear case prediction? What was the bear case like a
couple under thousand? Like even if it was like a you
know like oh your estimate Bitcoin at the worst worst case
and then you know lower that by a factor of four even though the
worst case is still a good 10-15 percent kegger like oh Okay.
So I just, you know, all I need to do is just like a little bit
of it. Protect my, like, my tail risk
here, which is like the system, I know, and I'm comfortable with
and the world. I know from an economic
standpoint, even if you don't know economics, you know, I just
have a 401k or pension or something that I promised when
your son like you should own a little bit of Bitcoin in case of
that those entitlements. You think you have or if big fat
zero, but Niko I my Social Security's taken every every
week from from part of my income.
And I just I just imagine the money just giving birth to see
any of it. I know I know that I'm an I'm at
you know I'm not necessarily peace with that but I understand
that's that's the reality of my situation.
It's stolen. It's burned is no I'm never
going to see it. You know it's supposed to be
going to the roads but it's really being funneled through
Ukraine in a money-laundering operation.
Like I'm at peace with that. I understand that I will say
that and maybe that makes me. You know this Rogue political
Political person. But like, you know, I don't
think the radical View at all. So so my response to that is
that all right? I'm going to own one of the only
things the world that I think I can actually own and I like I'm
really comfortable as a mathematics person like I
approach Bitcoin from a math and finance lens.
First and all the technological stuff I dug into and came to
understand afterwards. But as a math person, like I'm
very, very comfortable after, you know, reading some elliptic
curve cryptography and reading smart people's opinions on it.
And learning about encryption and learning about, you know,
the having in the difficult adjustment, all these things,
and how this thing works, and learning a little bit about
software and what running a node means and what mining means
being like. Okay, wait so this is probably
the only place in the world where like I can you know, hold
what I own and where it can't be interrupted where I can't be
corrupted, like that's there's really nothing else, I can
defend gold with my gun. Right?
Like, that's okay. That's good.
That's not good. If I wanted hop around the world
really easily, right? So, like Bitcoin, just like for
me, you know, I'm a privilege Western ego.
Like, I have a brokerage account and I can short bonds, if I want
to or long NASDAQ stock, but like, you know, it's like the
person in Argentina, can't buy NASDAQ I can't get dollars, even
they get to get dollars, the real rate, like, what can they
do? And there's, you know, I think
there's like there's a singularity here with like
Bitcoin as, you know, one of the more important ideas of our
time, the wild, the wild bullish price targets are fun.
And I've honestly been a proponent and champion of some
of those crazy ludicrous Targets in the past and I still am but I
think that's the price. Despite being a you know an
analyst I post a lot about markets and financial stuff in
price. I think that's like one of the
probably lesser. Seeing things is like projecting
out. Like how many socks do I own
more and like what will this price be in the future 10
million. Oh, I'm Gonna Be Rich, I'm gonna
buy a jet ski in a villa, you know, versus like, okay.
Like this is the probably one of the most important ideas, ideas
of our time, I should own some, I should be able to eloquently
described the bull case of it. I should be able to, regardless
of who's my listener. Because there's there's there's
always an angle where someone could probably understand it if
they're if they're not completely like close-minded and
have. And of cognitive dissonance.
So I think that's the important thing.
I think, you know, the arc framework is interesting, they
certainly been battered. Arc is no longer, you know
there's some there's some really smart mines there.
So I respect what they do and I think you you you said it.
Perfectly Dylan. Came for the money stayed for
the revolution. I think that's that's what we're
all. Living through nowadays anyways.
Dylan the Claire, it's been a pleasure honor like always,
thank you so much. For for coming on simply Bitcoin
IRL. And I mean there's an obvious
question, but I do it with every guest.
What are you working on now days?
And where can people find you online?
Yeah, I am doing a few different things.
I'm with the climatic scene because yank reading the
newsletter Bitcoin magazine Pro could find that if Accord
magazine Pro.com, we're putting putting together some stack
releases covering more of the finance aspect of it.
Also kind of doing my own thing with 21st paradigm.
Can find me at Dillon, the Claire dot info or to my Twitter
at dealing with Claire underscore.
You know, I also have been trying to Noster.
I don't know if it's the best place to find me there, but it's
a pretty exciting that app and Twitter.
You know, I am bullish on Twitter.
I like Twitter, love Twitter, spent way too much time on there
for the past few years, but a little bit pessimistic about it.
Staying power. So we'll see how it goes.
But I mean like I really appreciate you guys having me on
It's been fun to rip and hope the listeners.
Enjoyed, enjoyed it a bit. Thanks Dylan.
Appreciate you coming on guys, that was another episode of
Simply Bitcoin IRL. If you enjoyed it, make sure to
smash that like button and we will see you tomorrow back for
the live show, but if you want more Bitcoin content and head
over to the swan Bitcoin Channel, they just dropped a new
podcast for dr. Jeff Ross and James lavish so
definitely check that out. Love you all and see you
tomorrow.